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The IKN Weekly
Week 873, week of February 15th 2026
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Hope you enjoyed the long weekend, Worried about copper.
Fundamental Analysis: Deferred.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v), West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v), Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Aurion Resources (AU.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Surge Copper (SURG.v), Copper Giant (CGNT.v), Algo Grande Copper
(ALGR.v), Element 29 (ECU.v), Hot Chili (HCH.v), Metal Energy (MERG.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Agnico Eagle (AEM), Alamos Gold (AGI), Lundin Gold (LUG.to), Eldorado
Gold (EGO).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Silver Wolf (SWLF.v), Auriginal Mining (AUME.v).
Regional Politics: Panama: Wall St notices Cobre Panamá will re-open, Peru: Interim President José Jerí
may be impeached, Mexico: Sinaloa is a dangerous place, Bolivia aims to attract mining investment.
Market Watching: A brief update on Quilla Resources, A brief update on Mayfair Gold (MFG.v) and the
Fenn-Gib project.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 I’m not the only one getting leery about copper at these levels, check out today’s main intro section
and then add in the thoughts contained in the Copper Basket. Every so often the intro op-ed becomes
the main note of an issue and that’s the case today, it’s not an outright bear call on copper and
essentially it’s not much more than the same “Be Careful” warning we’ve sounded since 2025 became
2026, but we do seem to be reaching an inflection point in the metal’s price and the outright bullish
sentiment that assumed copper could do no wrong in 2026 has deflated, with plenty of market voices
now seeing the U$6.00/lb level as unsustainable.
 There are times when I’d like to dedicate more space and effort to digging on the Tier 1 and Tier 2
precious metals plays and typically, those thoughts arise in February. We get year-end earnings
releases, we get guidance for the year ahead, we get corporate moves, we get the BMO conference
and all the news it generates and in a good year, we get M&A action and deal-making. And hey, 2025
and 2026 are good years for these companies. We scratch the surface in the Producer Basket section
but there’s so much more to say.
 Today’s Stocks to Follow notes are mainly about Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v) and West Red Lake Gold
(WRLG.v) because I like positive stories with bright and positive outlooks. Way better than fixating
every week on the unholy mess Vizsla Silver (VLZA.to) (VZLA) has made in Mexico, for that you need
the Regional Politics section. Ugh, politics.
 There are other things in this week’s edition, too. There are always other things.
Hope you enjoyed the long weekend
Today Monday was Family Day in Canada, it was Washington’s Birthday in The USA and down this end of The
Americas, we’ve come up with a delayed Valentine’s Day or Carnival Week, depending on where you live.
Anyway, it was a long weekend and markets re-open for business tomorrow Tuesday. As for the weather,
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please remember that Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow two weekends ago so those of you up there need
to wait another four weeks for a break in the cold.
Worried about copper
We ring the changes in this week’s intro rant with a bit of basic chart study, mostly about metals and aimed
toward my concerns over copper in the near/medium term. We also lean heavily on house mancrush, Andy
Home of Reuters, whose work often gets quoted in the Copper Basket section but today we push the
boundaries here in the intro.
To begin, we consider the simple three month price charts of spot gold (below left) and spot silver (below
right), as they show a similar pattern:
I don’t think I’m going to shock anyone with market revelations when describing the recent price action in
gold and copper as bullish in Q4, then an acceleration at the end of January, then a drop and most recently a
couple of weeks of consolidation at the new lower level. In other words, both gold and silver have seen an
excellent and welcome bull run, an overbought peak, a correction and renewed support. Now for sure there
are always going to be people complaining and moaning that “their metal” is being suppressed and
manipulated by a cabal of evildoers but on the whole, what we see in those above charts isn’t that out of the
ordinary and it’s also very positive for the longer-term in both metals; I’d rather see gold flat-lining at
U$5,000/oz than the U$4,000/oz of October and November 2025, after all. However, when we turn our
attention to copper, things are different:
Neither do I claim that the copper and gold (or even silver) markets are apples-to-apples because they’re
obviously not and for myriad reasons, but on a simple trade level we’ve seen copper do the same as the
above metals during Q4, we then saw copper spike to
U$6.30/lb on the same day gold and silver topped out (and
some futures contracts even traded very briefly over
U$6.50/lb) but instead of putting in the hard drop, copper
has found support at the U$5.80/lb line three times in
February. Not only is that different from gold and silver, it’s
a notable departure from the only other industrial metal that
rivals Dr. Copper as an economic indicator, particularly in
the key Chinese market (chart right). Iron ore didn’t enjoy
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the same sort of January speculative run, but it’s still had to swallow the February reversal.
Metals scene-setting complete, we now move to the op-ed published by Andy Home of Reuters last Thursday
(1) and the title, “Copper is pricing scarcity at a time of plenty”, had me from the word go as it’s the same
songbook this desk has been singing from for the last three months (see IKN862 dated November 30th).
However the entire article is, in this opinion of this desk, must-read material so after due consideration of the
pros and cons, I’ve decided to break one of the unwritten rules of this game and quote the entire script of
Home’s piece. I realize this is a bit naughty, but 1) you really need to read the whole thing this time and not
just an excerpt 2) it’s still well worth using the link to read the original note as it comes with illustrative charts
to underscore Home’s argument and 3) the note is available in its entirety on the open internet via several
links, so it’s not as if I’m stealing food from Reuters directly. Here’s the Andy Home piece, thoughts on it
below:
LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Don't panic. The world hasn't run out of copper, despite the many warnings of
imminent shortfall that have accompanied its rally to all-time highs.
Indeed, the amount of copper held by the world's big three metal exchanges is above the 1.1 million metric ton
mark for the first time since early 2003.
While the tariff trade ensured CME (CME.O) warehouses in the United States accounted for much of the
inventory increase last year, both London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses are
also experiencing accelerated inflows.
Global exchange inventory has surged by 300,000 tons since the start of January, indicating that copper's super-
charged price rally has curbed manufacturing demand.
The gap between speculators' great expectations and current reality yawns ever wider.
US TARIFF TRADE STALLS
CME copper stocks registered a net decline on Thursday for the first time since late October in a sign that last
year's relentless build has lost momentum.
The threat of U.S. import tariffs on refined copper, deferred until June, led the CME duty-paid copper price to
trade at a wide premium over the LME's international price at times in 2025.
Traders shipped massive amounts of physical copper to the United States to lock in the easy profits from what
was an unprecedented arbitrage opportunity.
U.S. imports of refined copper reached 1.45 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025, a year-on-year
increase of over 600,000 tons.
Much of that metal found its way to CME warehouses, lifting exchange stocks from 85,000 tons at the start of
2025 to 536,000 tons today.
The momentum is stalling, however.
The CME premium has evaporated as the market re-assesses the likelihood of U.S. import tariffs. The rationale
of U.S. import dependency looks less convincing now the country has so much inventory.
U.S. arrivals continue, but are being redirected to LME warehouses in Baltimore and New Orleans, where
registered stocks have risen from zero to 4,950 and 21,075 tons respectively over the last month.
Another 6,450 and 20,665 tons of copper sit in off-warrant LME storage at the two ports.
SHANGHAI (PRE)SEASONAL SURGE
The gravitational pull of the U.S. premium last year sucked in 200,000 tons of copper from China's bonded
warehouse zones but no-one seems to have missed it.
Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks have risen by 127,000 tons to 272,475 tons since the start of January. The
Yangshan premium, an indicator of import demand assessed by local data provider Shanghai Metal Market,
touched an 18-month low of $22 per ton last month.
Sure, rising inventory and weak import appetite are the norm around China's lunar new year holiday period.
But the Year of the Horse only starts next week and Shanghai exchange stocks are already higher than last
year's seasonal peak.
Moreover, China seems to have enough surplus metal to help replenish LME stocks.
SPREADS SIGNAL SURPLUS
Chinese brands of copper accounted for 70% of LME-warranted stocks at the end of January and arrivals are
taking place daily at LME warehouses in South Korea and Taiwan.
LME-registered stocks are up by 40% so far this year at 203,875 tons with off-warrant tonnage up by 30% at
90,720 tons.
Time-spreads have loosened accordingly. The benchmark LME cash-to-three-months period was in
backwardation as recently as November but is now in a comfortable contango of over $100 per ton.
Forward curves on both the CME and Shanghai copper contracts are also in contango, signaling ample
availability.
PRICE SIGNALS...?
Rising stocks and loosening spread structures don't sit well with an outright price that is within touching distance
of last month's record nominal high of $13,618 per ton.
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Doctor Copper has caught a dose of the metals fever that first gripped gold, then moved to silver before
spreading to base metals.
Chinese and Western investors alike have been buying up copper both as a bet on the metal's bright energy
transition demand narrative and as a hedge in the broader dollar debasement meme.
But the argument for ever higher prices rests on an assumption that at some stage there will not be enough
copper to meet global demand.
That time has yet to come. And every daily rise in global inventory pushes it a little further into the future.
IKN873 back and first up, please note the number of points Home hits on the subject that correlate with the
arguments this desk has built over the last couple of months, mostly in the Copper Basket section:
 Copper stocks rising at near-record rhythm to record levels
 The perception gap between market speculators and end-users
 Comex copper stocks now in North America and thoughts of what happens when that inventory
build reverses
 The SHFE stock build even before Asia’s Lunar New Year holiday period
 The Asia import premium has dropped sharply to an 18-month low
 The LME copper futures curve has moved back out of backwardation and into contango
Quite a list, but long-standing Andy Home readers/fans (count me in) will also notice how he apparently
dropped his usual pretense of presenting both sides and not trying to show opinion bias to the bull or bear
case. The points in this note would add up to a bearish argument even if some opinionated lout like me
presented them, but in the case of the diplomatic/fence-sitting style of Home it’s exceptionally bearish. Point
after point on the bear case with nothing to balance the op-ed, there’s more than a hint of “the clock is
ticking” to round it off as well.
Which begs to question as to what could set copper off on a price dip and the most obvious answer is its
currency of counting. For this desk, there’s absolutely zero coincidence between the way the USD dropped
hard in late January and the price peak we saw in gold, silver, copper etc.
Then, after the gold blow-off top we saw more metals sales when Kevin Warsh got the Fed nomination nod
from President Trump and the USD we saw temporary respite. That lasted less than a week, the USD
weakened again, metals found their recent floor, consolidated and have even started clawing back with gold
re-taking the U$5,000/oz line and silver trading around the U$80/oz level (still amazingly profitable for any
silver miner worth its salt). Finally on that chart, the interesting bit about last week’s jobs report (+130,000
NFP and UG 4.3%) wasn’t just the temporary move it caused in the USD, but the way President Trump really
pushed and hyped the numbers to a general audience. As we’ve noted previously, criticize POTUS47 for other
things but be crystal clear he knows about markets and how they react, his vociferous position is what you’d
expect from someone who knows the problems that a weak USD causes (worse than a quarter point here or
there on base rates). Want another reason to nominate Warsh over one of the nodding donkeys who’d cut
Fed funds by 50bps three times in a row just because boss man said so? Look no further.
It would only take one policy shift from this most unpredictable of US administrations for the US Dollar to
recover lost ground and in turn, pull the rug from under Dr. Copper’s feet. At this juncture, you don’t need to
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predict or even get a total collapse of the copper price in order to see equities retrace, a drop to U$5/lb
wouldn’t faze a single large scale mining company or put them off their plans for the next generation of
mines in the Andean Cordillera, or Pakistan, or BC Canada, or Central Africa or wherever else. But it would
surely make a difference to the junior mining market. And then there’s this (2), out today Monday, a timely
way to bring the crowded trade aspect of sentiment toward the USD to bear:
DOLLAR SHORTS HIT 14-YEAR EXTREME
Dollar positioning turned the most negative in over 14 years in February, according to Bank of
America’s latest FX and rates sentiment survey. Short bets against the dollar are now at their highest
since January 2012, the earliest data point available.
Fund managers’ dollar exposure has dropped below last April’s lows. Concerns about the Federal
Reserve’s independence eased after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair,
but this failed to lift dollar demand or improve sentiment toward U.S. assets.
Respondents cite further deterioration in the U.S. labor market as the key downside risk for the dollar.
Before that note dropped this morning, I’d cued up this February 4th Reuters report (3) entitled” U.S. dollar
rebound to be cut short by rate cut bets, doubts over Fed independence: Reuters poll” and while still valid,
the BofA note underscored how universally negative sentiment is toward the USD. So what with the bias
toward charting in today’s intro note I went to check out what the US Dollar Index (DXY) looked like from
January 2012 to date, and…
…while those crowded into the anti-dollar trade can point to the way the USD took a couple of years to get its
act together before launching higher, it’s difficult to avoid the way the dollar has come back from the dead
many times already and it’s the points when everybody bets against that tend to mark its reversals.
The bottom line: Back in IKN862 dated November 30th, we voiced our concerns on copper’s near-term
future but at the time, recognized that the overwhelmingly bullish momentum and sentiment was not to be
messed with. In that edition our advice boiled down to “Play the December momentum, Be wary of copper
retracing in January and February 2026, But stay bullish for the rest of 2026” and the first part was spot on.
As for the first seven weeks of the 2026 to date, copper did reach a new all-time high and seems more fragile
today, but equally we haven’t sent the substantial re-trace posited in IKN862. Not yet anyway. Meanwhile on
a personal basis, I’m still very much net long copper thanks mainly to major positions in Amerigo Resources
and Marimaca Copper, but I have trimmed exposure to the metal at the same time via sales in American
Eagle, XXIX Metal Corp, Arizona Metals and in particular the 25% of the ARG position that was sold to take
profits. That’s a fair reflection of where I stand today regarding copper, still long but leery and the above
underscores that my near-term nerves are growing.
There’s no two ways around the fact that it’s quite literally my job to be worried about long positions, the last
12 months have been mostly plain sailing on the macro metals front and even with mounting evidence that
copper may see a downturn, I’m loathe to reduce exposure any further because while I’m right to constantly
worry, I’m also aware that can turn out to be neuroses running wild and me imagining monsters under the
bed that don’t exist. Therefore, with the portfolio I’m sticking to the practical course and not trying to
second-guess a volatile market; if copper drops back to the U$5.00/lb line it wouldn’t threaten the rationale
for holding Marimaca at this stage, but the option to sell another tranche of Amerigo is a real possibility as
long as the exit price is worthwhile as that trade has surpassed all expectations and even if it drops a dollar, I
couldn’t complain (too much). To be crystal clear, I am NOT about to reduce my copper exposure further
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unless things manifestly change for the worse and even then, my normal longer-term outlook on the major
trades means I’d continue to hold MARI and at least half of the ARG position. However, I’ve already dropped
most of the speculative copper trades for a good reason so if copper does put in a leg down, I’ll be looking to
use the sidelined cash to buy (or buy back into) speculative stocks that currently look expensive and may
suddenly look cheap. Those of you holding high risk speculative copper trades may want to meditate on that.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Deferred.
Stocks to Follow
The week before last week, losers outnumbered winners by three-to-one so the recovery we saw last week
was welcome. While volatility in metals continues, our Stocks to Follow list reversed the losses and finished
with nine winners (RIO.to, ARG.to, TNGD.v, MARI.to, GROY, WRLG.v, WDO.to, LMS.v, OCI.v), five losers
(MAI.v, AU.v, SRL.v, MFG.v, MENE.v) and just one unchanged stock (MIRL.cse). The good news gets better
when we note how nearly all losers are located closer to the bottom of the table, there’s even a bonus with
the big percentage wins registered by Tiernan (TNGD.v up 11.5%) and Wesdome (WDO.to up 9.9%). It’s
enough to make me regret lightening the load two weeks ago. Well nearly, as of the four stocks sold (or sold
down) to raise cash recently…
 Arizona Metals: Sold at 66c, now 59c
 Red Pine/RPX Gold: Sold at 19.5c, now 21.5c
 Minera Alamos: 75% of shares sold at avg C$6.22, now C$5.45
 Blue Moon: Sold at C$5.84, now C$5.23
….three of the four are still lower than our exit prices and from now on, I will wallow in my regret for selling
RPX.v in private. Thank you for your understanding.
There are fifteen companies left on our Stocks to Follow list, five under our self-imposed maximum. Just two
of those are in the red, the others are in the green and quite a few of them are up multiples. That’s good.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$3.32 315.0% New C$6.84 tgt Feb'26
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$5.84 279.2% Core copper position
Tiernan Gold TNGD.v STR BUY C$7.86 29-Dec-25 C$9.02 17.6% new Chile gold jr, adding
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$11.26 269.2% Quality Cu dev, M&A tgt
Gold Royalty Co GROY hold/buy U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$4.29 206.4% 2nd tgt U$5 hit, hold for buyout
Minera Alamos MAI.v hold/sell C$2.10 13-Oct-19 C$5.45 159.5% $7.00 tgt, 25% of trade left
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.88 20-Jul-25 C$1.20 36.4% re-rate trade, $1.44 tgt close
Wesdome Gold WDO.to STR BUY C$22.42 30-Nov-25 C$23.74 5.9% 2026 M&A tgt trade
Aurion Res AU.v BUY C$1.07 21-Sep-25 C$1.62 51.4% Agnico will buy more Finland
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.21 162.5% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.28 47.4% proj.generator, Organullo spec
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.11 83.3% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Mayfair Gold MFG.v WATCH C$5.32 11-Jan-26 C$5.40 1.5% Canada gold project, watching
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.18 -60.0% LT bet, adding slowly
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CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
American Eagle AE.v Jan'26 C$0.495 14-Dec-25 C$0.61 27.3% TLS trade, modest, successful
Electrum Disc ELY.v Jan'26 C$0.075 9-Nov-25 C$0.10 33.3% took quick profit on buyout
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'26 C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$5.46 254.5% partial profit-take on port mgmt
XXIX Metal XXIX.v Jan'26 C$0.11 27-Aug-25 C$0.125 13.6% spec copper trade, bad result
Valkea Res OZ.v Jan'26 C$0.36 29-Dec-25 C$0.48 33.3% took NT profit TLS trade
Arizona Metals AMC.to Feb'26 C0.69 5-Oct-25 C$0.66 -4.3% sold to rebalance port, Feb'26
Red Pine Expl RPX.v Feb'26 C$0.12 8-Sep-24 C$0.195 62.5% sold to rebalance port, Feb'26
Minera Alamos MAI.v Feb'26 C$2.10 13-Oct-19 C$6.22 196.2% 75% of trade sold Q1
Blue Moon MOON.v Feb'26 C$4.18 30-Nov-25 C$5.84 39.7% sold to rebalance port, Feb'26
2015 to 2025 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered stocks:
Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v): ADDED. I bought a few more and the cost average ticked up again, but this time
it really felt like chasing a price because the market is now becoming more aware of the opportunity TNGD
offers. Last week’s edition, out Monday February 9th, remarked among other things on our newest gold trade
Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v) that “… we expect TNGD to ramp up its marketing activities as we enter the
(Northern) spring conference season.”
We didn’t have to wait long. The next morning, Tuesday February 10th, saw the beginning of its formal
marketing campaign via a 1,115 word NR (4), “Tiernan Gold Provides Update on Flagship Volcan Project” that
touched virtually every base that someone new to the company would want. It was accompanied by an
updated corporate presentation dated February on the website (check that out here (5)). Although the top
paragraph before those bullets also marked the tone of this update when stating “This update marks a clear
shift into an engineering-led, execution-focused phase”
That’s because TNGD has gone the biz-speak route with a vengeance and the NR was peppered with the
terminology that we all know and love…or at least know. Examples:
“…creates durable, long-term value for all stakeholders.”
“…focus has now shifted decisively toward strengthening the engineering and technical foundations required to
responsibly advance the Project through permitting and toward project execution.”
“…Tiernan has moved quickly to assemble the technical depth, organizational capability and financial flexibility
required to advance Volcan in a disciplined and value-driven manner.”
“This approach is intended to support a high-quality EIS, backed by credible engineering and defensible
assumptions.”
“…aimed at further improving understanding of mineralization controls and informing future mine and process
design.”
“…a phased metallurgical program designed to deepen process understanding and optimize flowsheet design for
Volcan…”
“…modern analytical methods and broader sample coverage to further strengthen design inputs and value
outcomes.”
“The Company views meaningful, transparent engagement as a foundational element of responsible project
development and a critical input into the EIS process.”
Those and many others. It doesn’t quite lapse into full word salad, but there’s more than a hint of a draft run
through an AI program prompted with “Hey Robot Brain, make this sound as Wall Street as possible”. To be
honest, I found it fun to read and what’s more, approve
of the chosen tone: They’re aiming at an audience
above and beyond the normal junior mining retail grunts
and when we consider the brains behind this company,
i.e. Chris Taylor and others brought in from Discovery
Group (though I’m told it’s not going to be classed as a
Discovery Group company, probably because Hochschild
is running the show), you can be sure this is a deliberate
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and thought-out decision and it seems to be working too, as seen in the chart above. The BMO conference
and then PDAC are on the horizon, last week’s NR marks the start of the marketing campaign so expect
TNGD to pop up on all the standard play-to-play influencer channels. This size of gold resource needs to see
a share price at C$15 before the world stops talking about the “dirt cheap ounces” and starts considering
Volcan as a development project.
Bottom line: It’s up, its still cheap, now’s the time to get on before the word spreads further. I added a few
and will probably continue to do so in the days ahead…gotta do something with the cash piled up in the
account, after all.
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): Up three cents on the week wasn’t the best of the portfolio bunch, but I
thought it was fair performance under circumstances for a company that still has the cloud of doubt hanging
round its head. However, the online live presentation offered on Thursday afternoon by WRLG CEO Shane
Williams was good enough to add 5c to the share price on what was a difficult day for the junior sector and
for what it’s worth, it goes a long way to address the doubts that some corners of the market still have about
the company. Check out the tape of the presentation here (6) (free registration required) and 20 minutes in
the main body of the presentation is enough to get what it offers (miss out the first couple of minutes and
the flat Q&A at the end) and learn about the current state of play at Madsen and corporate plans for 2026.
My main takeaways were:
 Madsen is now running well at least 600tpd (best guess we’ll see 650tpd average for Q1) and is on track to
reach its full run rate of 800tpd average by Q3 or Q4. That’s as per the plan and good news. CEO Williams
mentioned in passing that Madsen has been running at 1,000tpd in recent days. That’s also good as an
example of its expansion potential.
 Q1 will see the completion of the shaft renovation, which will help haul rates to surface and cut average
op-ex. But he stressed that the main bottleneck of ore-to-surface is largely solved now and from here, the
job is to iron out the glitches and get throughput rising incrementally to that 800tpd target in the second
half of 2026. We can expect formal guidance for the year “at the end of Q1”, though whether that is a
separate event to YE earnings and/or Q1 production remains to be seen
 Although not a new topic, CEO Williams underscored the different strategy for definition drilling at Madsen
under WRLG compared to previous operators (e.g. Pure Gold and the mess they made). They now have
nearly 200,000m of core and definition drilling is done on a tight spacing, averaging 7m, which allows them
the confidence required for what has historically been a difficult and unpredictable orebody. As further
evidence, he took us back to the bulk sample period and how mill results correlated closely with grade
expectations at the time, which showed the team they were on the right track and since then things have
(apparently) gone well.
 There was plenty about the second asset at WRLG, Rowan, underscoring the company’s plans for a
hub&spoke operation to haul ore from Rowan and expand the Madsen mill’s operating capacity. Madsen is
currently permitted to 800tpd average and according to CEO Williams, it would only need a modest capex
injection (plus permits) to get that to 1,500tpd. That, plus Rowan coming online as a new feed source,
points WRLG toward a 130k to 140k, which CEO Williams envisages in three to four years from now.
Separately, he mentioned the warrants situation in passing and that’s worth a closer look with this table from
the 3q25 financials (apparently the total is down by 4m and a bit to 162.167m these days, no biggie):
While the other lines are also valid and everything on that list is also in-the-money, the one that matters is at
the top, as the 43.18m papers prices at C$1.00 are due exercised by May 16th so, as long as the price holds
up, we can expect the shares out count to go to around 430m and for WRLG to benefit from another C$40m
cash hitting treasury. In other words, this company will not need to run any more financings.
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To wrap up, we note that CEO Williams hit all the right buzzphrases about his company during the
presentation, telling us that we were “just beginning to see the re-rating”, that WRLG is “very undervalued to
peers” and is still “a wait and see” story in the eyes of many, particularly those who recall how Pure Gold set
so many investors’ money on fire
PS: For easier access, the webinar is now available on the WRLG YouTube channel, link here (7).
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): A major part of the rebalancing and
cash raise of two weeks ago was to accelerate the previously
planned sales of MAI.v shares, taking whatever price offered
rather than waiting for the C$6.50-or-above target zone. I was
still somewhat reluctant to hit the sell button when the moment
arrived, but did so all the same.
So far at least, it’s turned out to be the right decision. Sigh. I will
continue to hold my 25% remnant and, as long as gold plays
along, at some point will get the exit price for them that I want.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): The gap between open market and assets persists at OCI, but it was enough to drag
the stock price up by half a penny last week:
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 10.72 0.65 6.97 2.8
ARIC.v 7.39 0.81 5.99 2.4
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.61 2.54 1.0
XXIX.v 23.637 0.12 2.84 1.1
AUME.v 42.75 0.095 4.06 1.6
MERG.v 1.025 1.04 1.07 0.4
MERG warrant 0.5125 0.59 0.30 0.1
ZIGY.cse 4.942 0.39 1.90 0.8
KLDC.v 40.040 0.285 11.41 4.6
subtotal 37.08 14.9
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 37.11 14.9c
At 248.332 S/O
The potential weak spot on that list is KLDC, which will need to make a real discovery to justify its current
stock price at some point (no matter how well known its backers are) and, as it has tried and failed on at
least three occasions to do exactly that, the doubts exist. OCI’s shares of KLDC are under 12 month escrow,
which means they won’t be able to sell any until the end of this year. On that subject, on Thursday we
learned this about OCI’s attitude toward Awalé (ARIC.v) in a RegF filed to SEDAR:
Pursuant to the Market Sale, Orecap disposed of a total of 425,000 Common Shares. Prior to the Market Sale,
Orecap owned and exercised control over a total of 6,889,833 Common Shares as well as 4,166,666 common
share purchase warrants, exercisable into Common Shares, representing 6.61% of the issued and outstanding
Common Shares on a non-diluted basis, and 10.20% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares on a partially
diluted basis (which assumes the full exercise of the warrants held by Orecap, but no other convertible securities
of Awalé). After giving effect to the Market Sale, Orecap no longer owns more than 10% of the Common Shares of
Awale on a non-diluted or partially diluted basis.
The filing was triggered by OCI dipping under the 10% line of ARIC.v ownership, but it also shows that prior
to the 425k share sale on Thursday OCI had already sold 500,000 shares, as its previously stated total
holding of ARIC was 7.39m shares (confirmed in the corporate presentation dated January 8th). Five weeks
down the line the total holding is down to 6.465m and OCI has raised cash as a result. There was a spike in
traded volume of ARIC in late January (29th and 30th) so let’s guesstimate OCI got an average of 75c for
those shares, so overall it seems to have raised around C$0.715m. I asked Stephen Stewart about this move,
who replied that OCI needed a modest amount of working capital from somewhere, in May OCI needed to
finance warrants that were coming due in May.
In other news, OCI holding and Ore Group company Stardust Metal (ZIGY.cn) reacted positively (+20.3% on
the week) to the news that its neighbour, the still privately held Gold Candle, was buying Fokus Mining for
9

C$65m. ZIGY is the owner of McGarry, sat right next door to Gold Candle’s main gig and with the private
entity now gearing up for its near-inevitable listing and public float, there’s no more obvious acquisition target
for the Pierre Lassonde vehicle than the asset next door with shaft, re-processable tailings and the same
geological trend.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): A reminder that we’re closing in on the ARG 4q25 and Year-End financials
reporting day, scheduled for February 25th. It promises to be one for the annals, as our forecast as seen in
IKN870 is for true blowout earnings, be that in absolute dollars or relative to previous quarters. Meanwhile in
trading it ignored the weakness in the copper sub-sector (see The Copper Basket) and added 5% on peppy
volume. These days, boring and staid old ARG is a hot stock with an increasingly enthusiastic audience now
commanding a healthy multiple for its equity, not bad for what is essentially a tailings reprocessor in
provincial Chile.
PS: Not for the first time, this desk has received mail on stories doing the rounds that ARG may be about to
expand its operations footprint by setting up a new plant in another region of Chile, a story that seems to be
propagated by Rick Rule. My response is “he means well”.
Aurion Resources (AU.v): One of the few that dropped a
little on the week, but that’s okay as we know AU.v tends to
march to its own beat. What we do know, however, is that
the market didn’t join the jots between the words of Agnico
(AEM) Ammar Al-Joundi during his company’s ConfCall on
Friday and what it means for this stock. See “Producer
Basket” below for more on that and gold price permtting,
expect AU to rally this coming week.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to): Up 17c, still the Top Pick, thanks for
the feedback on last week’s note with most of you
supportive of the big hike in the target price. Nitpick about the exact number if you want (I still think I’m
pitching low compared to current gold and copper prices), but the main takeaway is that RIO.to is going to
remain as a firm favourite and an anchor of my personal investment portfolio for some time to come. That’s
about all for this week, though a quick reminder to own this before any other stock mentioned in The IKN
Weekly is always worth an extra line.
The Copper Basket
After six weeks of 2026, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 21.92% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/26 Shares out m Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Faraday Copper FDY.to 2.73 252.88 854.73 3.38 23.8%
2 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 3.67 183.8 578.97 3.15 -14.2%
3 Los Andes Copper LA.v 9.20 29.56 419.46 14.19 54.2%
4 Pecoy Copper PCU.v 1.32 213.1 364.40 1.71 29.5%
5 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.33 190.772 301.42 1.58 18.8%
6 Surge Copper SURG.v 0.475 385.41 215.83 0.56 17.9%
7 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.74 289.41 202.59 0.70 -5.4%
8 Andina Copper ANDC.v 0.56 224.67 195.46 0.87 55.4%
9 Element 29 Res ECU.v 1.20 155.51 177.28 1.14 -5.0%
10 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.49 188.635 147.14 0.78 59.2%
11 Fitzroy Min FTZ.v 0.48 282.294 141.15 0.50 4.2%
12 American Eagle AE.v 0.56 172.877 112.37 0.65 16.1%
13 Metal Energy MERG.v 0.64 36.03 37.47 1.04 62.5%
14 Algo Grande Copper ALGR.v 0.53 39.64 28.54 0.72 35.8%
15 Kobrea Exp KBX.cse 0.51 35.622 20.30 0.57 11.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 21.92%
10

The basket average dropped 6.74% on the week, dragged down by a headcount of nine losers (PCU.v, LA.v,
HCH.v, BIG.v, FTZ.v, ANDC.v, AE.v, CGNT.cv, ALGR.v
against just five winners (FDY.to, ALDE.v, ECU.v, 35% The Copper Basket 2026, weekly evolution
SURG.v, MERG.v) and one unchanged stock (KBX.cn)
30%
out of our 15 component stocks. There were two double
25%
figure percentage winners in Metal Energy (MERG.v up
20%
15.6%) and Faraday Copper (FDY,to up 10.1%), while
big percentage losses came from Los Andes Copper 15%
(LA.v down 21.2%), Copper Giant (CGNT.v down 10%
20.4%), Hercules Metals (BIG.v down 10.3%) and Hot 5%
Chili (HCH.v down 9.2%). 0%
Jan1st Jan4th 11th 18th 25th feb1st 8th 15th
source: IKN calcs
The sector downturn was caused by copper’s price
action, which as this chart shows didn’t drop by that
much on a week-over-week basis but the perception came from Thursday onward, when the U$6.00/lb line
was lost and trading dropped back to the previous floor levels (U$5.70/lb to U$5.80/lb).
This second chart shows that silver took the biggest whacking that day and therefore most of the headlines,
but copper dropped as well. However and unlike either silver or gold, the chart bears witness to how copper
refused to rally even a little after its drop, whereas gold and silver came off their lows by Friday’s close.
At this point, we urge readers to return to this week’s intro section and the way the copper specs vs copper
real world battle is getting more eyeballs than ever. At the same time the esteemed Mr Home published his
note, on Thursday Mining Dot Com ran this note (8) under the headline “Copper price: Strains deepen as
global smelting activity hits decade low”, pinning the header on this information further down the report:
Earth-i’s latest SAVANT Global Copper Smelting Index shows that 14.3% of global smelting capacity was inactive
in January. Activity fell 2.5% from December, a notable drop during what is typically the industry’s most active
period.
11

Rather than report on a report, let’s go to the source of this story at Earth-I, a service that uses satellite
imagery to monitor industrial activity of all sorts, with one of its core products being the copper industry.
Here’s their NR (9) and here’s how it starts:
Our SAVANT Global Metals Monitoring Index confirmed in January that, with the percentage of global
smelting capacity registered as inactive averaging 14.3%, this was the highest reading for January
since SAVANT monitoring began nearly a decade ago. Activity fell by 2.5% from December,
indicative of the pressure that market forces are exerting on the industry at what is typically the most
active period in the calendar. Smelting is markedly weaker than usual, with last month’s inactive
capacity reading being the first in 7 years to register double figures for the first month of the year, and
6.8% above the three-year average.
However, at a regional level there is a stark contrast between activity in China, where 45% of capacity
monitored by SAVANT is located, and the Rest of World (RoW). With a country level inactive capacity
reading of just 7.5% in the former, it is the underperformance of plants in RoW pushing the global
index higher, with active tonnage over 1.2 Mt lower than the same time a year ago.
IKN back and in so many words, ex-china copper smelters around the world are slowing down production at
the very same time that copper prices are hitting new records and copper inventories are stacking up all over
the world. If you think that’s a coincidence, I have a bridge to sell you.
Now for the regular world copper inventories update, data from Cochilco.
 The grand total of copper inventory for the three official copper systems is above one million
metric tonnes (mt) for the first time ever, with last week seeing 44,449mt added to the pile for
an exact count of 1,012,065mt. With the Lunar New Year about to drop, that is only going to go
higher still.
 For the second week running, the Shanghai SHFE brought the lion’s share of additions, up
23,564mt on the week to close at 272,475mt and it’s less a question of whether we go over
300kmt, more when and for how long we stay over that line.
 However, the biggest bear signal came from LME last week which added 19,575mt to copper
stocks and closed Friday holding 203,875mt under roof. Last week we wrote that it’s getting
difficult to ignore the world build-up in copper inventory now that LME is seeing the same trend,
underscore that thought this weekend.
 There was one slight change to the set trends, however. Even though Comex stocks saw another
net add, it was relatively small compared to recent weeks and months at 1,310mt and we may be
seeing a slowdown in inventory arriving in The USA. This weekend’s total is still another new all-
time record at 535,715mt, though.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows the add last week that keeps the steep increase in 2026 in-line. Notably, the
current SHFE inventory is larger than even 2020 and if you remember what happened then and the way
copper piled up at the docks as end users stopped buying, that’s quite a thing in an environment of these
spot prices.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
We’ve mentioned it above, it’s worth another line that as from this Wednesday China is on its big national
holiday and near-mandated downtime. That means a couple of weeks of static data, then in a typical year we
see the annual inventory peak in SHFE copper followed by the drawdown period.

Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2018 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
8102
ht7naj
8102
ht4ram
ht92 8102
ts1yluj
ht62 ts12tco ht61 ht01 9102
ht7rpa
9102
dn2nuj
ht82 dn22 9102ht71von 0202ht21naj ht8 0202dr3yam ht82 dr32 ht81 0202ht31ced 1202ht7beF 1202ht4rpa ht03 ht52 ht91 ht41 ht9 2202ht6ram 1.yam ht62 ts12 22ht61tco ht11 ht5beF dn2rpA ht82 dr32 ht71 ht21 4202ht7naJ dr3raM ht82 dr32 ht81 ht31 ht8 dn2beF ht03 ht52 ht02 ht41 ht9 6202ht4naJ
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Surge Copper (SURG.v): After running hard, SURG moved to fund last week via a non-brokered private
placement that was immediately upsized (10) from C$15m to C$20m, the deal struck at 50c per unit and
each share coming with a full warrant with a C$1.00 strike and a three year shelf life. Assuming it fully fills,
that adds 40m shares to the count and we’ve changed the count in the table above pro-forma. The original
announcement was timed into a copper up day and by the way the open market price shot to 68c, it was
clearly popular. The upsize announcement the next day took the shine off the traded price and with copper
weakening into Friday, SURG ended up just a penny on the week.
As for the use of proceeds, SURG says that once closed its treasury will see it well past the PFS milestone
that’s slated for mid-2026 (i.e. 4 to 5 months from now) and into the post-PFS phase, presumably
environmental permitting, detailed drilling and an eventual Feasibility Study. It won’t be enough to get to FS
stage, but that’s okay.
Copper Giant (CGNT.v): After the paid pump stoked run
the week before last, when CGNT peaked with the very last
trade, it was downhill all the way last week and the stock
gave back most of its gain as those behind this unholy,
unpermittable mess of a company’s promo cashed in. There
is, however, still a long way down to go before CGNT
reaches a price that truly reflects is intrinsic value. That plain
enough for you? And did I mention it’s unpermittable? Good,
just checking. Avoid, there are umpteen better ways to play
copper in 2026 than this snake oil
Algo Grande Copper (ALGR.v): To the surprise of no-one, on Wednesday ALGR announced (11)…
“…a non-brokered private placement (the “Offering”) of up to 7,692,308 common shares in the
capital of the Company (the “Shares”) at a price of $0.65 per Share, for gross proceeds of up to
$5,000,000.”
That 65c ticket price makes a mockery of the paid by every single trades in 2026 to date and a reminder of
the way the playing field is tilted against the small retail player at this end of the market.
Element 29 (ECU.v): And on the subject of placements, considering that the last time ECU raised cash was
back in August for c$6.3m and since then it’s been running a large drill program including some serious deep
holes, his one is overdue an announcement of financing. Keep that in mind if we get a new round of drill
assays from Elida in the days to come.
Hot Chili (HCH.v): HCH closed it’s A$40m placement in good order last week (12) and will now throw that
good money after bad. Expect two or three more raises before any significant milestone is reached and at
that point, the world will be able to contemplate the ho-hum economics of Costa Verde.
Metal Energy (MERG.v): A strong week on news that I’d already classed as Captain Obvious (13):

Toronto, Ontario – February 11, 2026 – Metal Energy Corp. (the "Company" or "Metal Energy")
(MERG: TSXV, MEEEF: OTCQB) is pleased to announce the appointment of geologist Charlie Greig
as CEO in a management change that reflects a corporate strategy focused on creating value from
BC’s Toodoggone Region.
As Greig was the previous owner of the NIV project and has been working closely with Ore Group in the last
couple of years (AE.v and others), seeing him installed as CEO of this new momo play came as zero surprise
but hey, the market liked the news. Go figure.
Copper Basket notes bottom line: Me? Cynical about copper explorecos? Surely not!
The Producer Basket
After six weeks of 2026, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 23.15% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/26 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 99.85 1108 139.39 125.80 26.0%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 169.53 502.579 108.85 216.59 27.8%
3 Barrick B 43.55 1705.994 81.73 47.91 10.0%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 117.52 454.02 66.24 145.90 24.1%
5 Lundin Gold LUG.to 114.02 241.433 19.31 109.59 -3.9%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 38.58 420.68 19.04 45.25 17.3%
7 IAMGOLD IAG 16.49 594 12.85 21.63 31.2%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 35.92 201.275 9.53 47.37 31.9%
9 B2Gold Corp BTG 4.51 1330.134 7.18 5.40 19.7%
10 Americas G & S USAS 5.11 318.26 2.40 7.53 47.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of LUG (in CAD$) Port. avg 23.15%
A good week for the producers and while gold remains volatile and prone to sudden price drops, the recovery
track that started the week before last remained on course and we saw the metal (GLD proxy up 1.57%) and
the miners (GDX up 6.7%, GDXJ up 6.1%) do well. As for our list of ten, they were all winners from the least
best moves in Lundin Gold (LUG.to up 4.5%) and Americas Gold & Silver (USAS up 5.6%), to the impressive
moves registered by Eldorado Gold (EGO up 21.4%), IAMGOLD (IAG up 13.1%), Alamos Gold (AGI up
11.2%), Agnico (AEM up 10.2%) and let’s add in the strong performance of sector top-dog Newmont (NEM
up 9.1%) on the end, too.
That little lot allowed us to handily out-perform the GDX and this weekend, we’re ahead of the benchmark
and nemesis by almost 2%... a good start.
The 2026 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and The 2026 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. Between
comparative to GDX control GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
30% 4%
26%
3%
22% ikn
gdx control 2%
18%
1%
14%
0%
10%
-1%
6%
source: IKN calcs -2%
2%
source: IKN calcs
-2% -3%
Jan1st Jan4th 11th 18th 25th feb1st 8th 15th
Jan1st Jan4th 11th 18th 25th feb1st 8th 15th
Agnico Eagle (AEM): The week’s biggest news from the gold producer world was the AEM 4q25 and YE
earnings, as reported by the company post-close Thursday evening (14) and while the quarterly numbers
were fine and the margins and profits eye-popping thanks to the higher received gold price…
14

Solid quarterly performance, with record quarterly adjusted net income and free cash flow generation
– Payable gold production in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 840,608 ounces at production costs per
ounce of $1,113, total cash costs per ounce of $1,089 and AISC per ounce of $1,517. The higher
realized gold price of $4,163 per ounce in the fourth quarter resulted in strong margins and cash
flows, while increasing royalty costs. The Company reported quarterly net income of $1,523 million or
$3.04 per share and record adjusted net income3 of $1,351 million or $2.70 per share. The Company
generated cash provided by operating activities of $2,112 million or $4.22 per share and record free
cash flow of $1,310 million or $2.62 per share
…one thing that didn’t happen was a sudden burst of buying on the back of those earnings figures. In other
words, it’s time to put to bed the “Oh The Market Isn’t Paying Attention, Just Wait Til It Sees How Much
Money The Miners Are Making” trope because yes, the
market is paying attention and yes, the big gold
margins are now being baked into share prices before
these companies report their quarters. That’s what
this chart, showing the marginal out-performance of
AEM compared to GDX and NEM, tells us. Yes for sure
there’s wriggle room and the market did like the
upbeat tone of AEM’s report, its confirmed profitability
and it probably approved of the walk-back of the
Macassa impairment as well (which makes sense
under this gold environment) but it wasn’t shocked by
the numbers either.
As for the ConfCall Friday, above and beyond the
numbers the most interesting interaction was on M&A, notably picked up by Bloomie on its report on AEM’s
quarter (15) that ran with the headline “World No. 2 Gold Miner is ‘Willing to Move’ on M&A, CEO Says”, and
here’s how that starts:
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Ammar Al-Joundi said the gold producer is “very well-
positioned” to pursue acquisitions should opportunities emerge, signaling a renewed openness to deal-making
after years focused on growing output from existing mines.
“We are willing to move — and we have moved — when we see an opportunity on the M&A side that actually
creates value per share,” he said during an earnings call on Friday, adding that the company has a “very good
understanding of the various assets out there.”
Speaking to investors and analysts on Friday’s call, Al-Joundi said assets with strong exploration potential would
offer the most high value opportunities. He added, in response to a separate question, that the company would
also consider divesting non-core holdings.
“What would really interest us — and what has really driven us for external M&A — has really been exploration
upside,” he said. “If it makes sense for someone else to own one of those assets and they view that they can pay
our owners more money than we see in it, we would always be open to that.”
And if that doesn’t make you think of Finland and of Aurion (AU.v, see Stock to Follow above), you haven’t
been paying attention to a publication that you pay good money to read.
Alamos Gold (AGI): We included the main part of the price reaction to AGI’s announcement the week
before last on the “Island Gold District” (IGD) NR that expects Island and Magino to become Canada’s newest
500k oz/year gold mine in the near future for a fairly modest capital outlay, this chart…
15

…shows that last week AGI easily consolidated that gain and stayed nicely ahead of the market as a result.
This IGD news has breathed new life into AGI, good for them.
Lundin Gold (LUG.to): I’m beginning to regret adding this stock to the 2026 list. I was aware that Lug at
Fruta del Norte was no longer the growth story that had 8x’d its share price in 2024 and 2025, but the idea
was to enjoy the strong earnings caused by the bonanza gold price and couple it with the potential for stock
alpha from its ongoing exploration and development program around FDN. Therein lies my potential mistake,
as illustrated last week when LUG gave us this NR (16), “Lundin Gold Extends Porphyry Corridor to 10km's
with Discovery of Fifth Porphyry; Sandia Returns Highest Grade Intercept to Date Including 322 Metres of
1.08% CuEq”. The headline number was good, as was the rest of the content of results at and around its
Trancaloma target. The regional geology target expansion is now ona 10km corridor and for 2026, LUG has
committed to spend a cool $100m on exploration, as per this Reuters note (17):
Canadian miner Lundin Gold is investing $100 million this year in an exploration campaign to extend
the life of its Fruta del Norte mine in Ecuador as the price of gold remains high.
The investment aims to bolster exploration efforts adding some 133,000 meters of drilling across
concessions in the Amazonian province of Zamora Chinchipe, executives said this week, an area
affected by illegal mining activities.
Lundin wants to increase its existing reserves totaling 5.54 million ounces, and identify new deposits
through a three-year project launched in 2025.
“To extend the mine’s life, we have seven drilling rigs inside the mine and another eleven on the
surface, primarily for resource generation from new deposits,” Maria Eugenia Rodriguez, exploration
manager at Fruta del Norte, told reporters during a tour of the facility.
(Good to see LUG running site tours for Ecuador-based reporters, rather than the normal mining rabble).
That $100m includes infill/out-step at FDN to increase its current reserves and resources, development
drilling at its very promising Fruta del Norte South (FDNS) and Bonza gold targets, as well as the regional
level targets that seem to be more about porphyry copper than high grade gold in pull-apart basins, but
that’s fair enough. However, the market doesn’t find any of this as sexy as I’d expected when including LUG
in the 2026 list…
…as seen in the price chart. LUG had a slow start to 2026 after its blockbuster 2025, not helped by a Q4
production report that saw FDN deliver at the low end of the expected, but last week’s news was its chance
to make up some ground and it simply didn’t happen.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): Back with a vengeance. Last week we reported on the 9.1% drop taken by EGO on
the back of its all-share deal to buy out Foran. We liked the deal and while the classic knee-jerk price drop on
this type of merger deal was understandable, there was decent reason to expect EGO to recover the lost
ground. Here’s part of last week’s note:
“Under the circumstances and considering Foran has also run well in recent weeks, the price doesn’t
look excessive. We can expect EGO to get back to out-performing the market as long as its Skouries
commissioning and ramp process goes smoothly.”
However, I’m still surprised by the speed in which EGO rebounded, that may be a return to the type of M&A
optimism and market applause we get when things were fully bullish in January. Or it may be jungledrums on
the upcoming earnings report, due to drop this coming Thursday February 19th post-close, with the ConfCall
on this link (8) 11:30am ET on Friday. As production in Q4 was good-not-great…
16

EGO: gold production breakdown, per qtr
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
17
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 52q4
Oz Au
Kisladag Lamaque
Efemcukuru Olympias
source: company filings
…all eyes will be on costs for the quarterly results. But again, 2026 guidance on production and costs, plus
any news on how Skouries ramp-up is going, are more likely influences on the share price than backward-
looking financial results.
The TinyCaps List
After six weeks of 2026, the TinyCaps show a gain of 11.11% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/26 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Auriginal Min AUME.v 0.07 264.51 25.13 0.095 35.7%
Canex Metals CANX.v 0.215 166.95 48.42 0.29 34.9%
Sranan Gold SRAN.cn 0.30 60.42 15.41 0.255 -15.0%
Enduro Metals ENDR.v 0.155 76.04 13.69 0.18 16.1%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.21 133.01 37.24 0.28 33.3%
Precore Gold PRCG.cn 0.26 32.003 6.40 0.20 -23.1%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.14 115.7 17.93 0.155 10.7%
Silver Wolf SWLF.v 0.135 62.18 9.33 0.15 11.1%
Trifecta Gold TG.v 0.195 47.7 11.45 0.24 23.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.19 171.677 27.47 0.16 -15.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 11.11%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In one cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed
sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2026. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps basket average dropped 3.5% on the week,
TinyCaps, 2026 weekly tracker
with just two of our ten showing week-over-week 25%
improvement (AUME.v, LMS.v), two others unchanged 20%
(PRCG.cn, RDU.v) and the other six losers (CANX.v,
15%
SRAN.cn, ENDR.v, SWLF.v, TG.v, VAU.v). Most of the
moves were small, the best performance came from 10%
Auriginal Mining (AUME.v up 11.8%) and the worst by
5%
some distance Silver Wolf (SWLF.v down 21.1%).
0%
Jan1st Jan4th 11th 18th 25th feb1st 8th 15th
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Silver Wolf (SWLF.v): A member of the 2026 TinyCaps List due to the “corporate title” theory as much as
anything (i.e. is having “silver” in its name enough to deliver an investment win?), SWLF dropped hard along
with the metal in question and didn’t find many takers once it had done so. Maybe a ticker to keep in mind if
silver goes on a rip back to U$100/oz and above again.
Auriginal Mining (AUME.v): Part of the Ore Group and a company we keep half an eye on via our holding
in OreCap (OCI.v, see above), AUME got a boost last week when announcing Tuesday (18) it had received
drill permits for its planned program at the Roger project. The plan here has always been to test Roger for
mineralization that connects the known resource areas, a theory apparently propounded by CEO Cashin and
director le Bel for many years. They now have the cash, the permits and the seasonal window to show us if
they’re right, so consider this stock a live drill play for at least 2q26. If things go well, beyond that too. The
usual drill play risk/reward rules apply, not for people who want a boring and safe trade.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Panama: Wall St notices Cobre Panamá will re-open
Early last week, a note from Morgan Stanley on First Quantum (FM.to) and its major copper asset Cobre
Panamá stated (19) that it expected the mine to re-open, with the first stage being the sale of stored
concentrate at the mine (around 70,000 metric tonnes) that should happen once the government audit is
complete and the report filed to Panama. MS noted, however, that the State would not start receiving
royalties from the operation until an estimated 2028 due to the time required to re-commission the mine.
This is very much along the lines of our estimates from the very beginning of this saga, as there’s a Kabuki
Theater of scenes to go through before it gets to the stage where a re-start is politically acceptable.
As for that audit, on Friday Panama’s environment ministry (MiAmbiente) released its third interim note on
the process and stated (20) the audit is now 61% complete. We’d expected it to be complete by the end of
Q1 2026, that’s now unlikely but given it’s being done by a national government, that’s not such a big delay.
Expect resolution on this by the end of 2026, but don’t expect the same type of knee-jerk opposition to the
re-opening and massed protests on the mine as the government, using this slowly-but-surely method, is
doing the right things and once the environment audit
is complete, will have enough evidence on its side to
convince enough of the country that the mine is a net
positive for the country (there will still be opposition of
course, but democracy still matters and the job is to
convince 50%+1).
However, the markets are still ignoring Cobre Panama
and its annual 350,000 metric tonnes of copper
(around 1.5% of world production). You won’t see it
directly in FM.to stock movements, but if the Morgan
Stanley note were to see effects on Wall St it would
have shown up in Franco-Nevada’s (FNV) price action.
It seems a decision in the second half of 2026 and
eventual full production in 2028 is too far down the line to count.
Peru: Interim President José Jerí may be impeached
The Regional Politics section of IKN870 dated January 25th included the note “More unimportant Presidential
scandal and an opinion poll” which posited that interim President José Jerí was in danger of being impeached
and removed from the job by the country’s Congress and laid out what it meant to the country’s political and
economic future, i.e. (and we quote) “It doesn’t matter. Not in the least.” It now seems that the
18

impeachment process is going to happen, as despite some evasion attempts by the few allies he has left he
now faces the debate and vote tomorrow Tuesday February 17th and if the same amount of congress
members vote for the impeachment as did for the debate, he’s toast. It’s not a done deal (it’s Peru politics,
the weirdest you’ll ever come across) but at this juncture he’s likely to be removed as President and if so,
Congress then has to vote on who takes his place on an interim basis until the winner of this year’s election
takes office at the end of July. Needless to say, whoever that turns out
to be would become the lame duck President to beat them all (though
would probably like the role, as they get to be top dog for a couple of
months and then enjoy the ex-President’s pension in perpetuity).
Meanwhile, we had another poll last week on the election, this time
from the country’s most respected pollster Ipsos and commissioned by
the right-leaning national daily Peru21. The complete PDF is here for
download (21) if you care enough, it has plenty of details, we offer
this partial screenshot from page four (right) for the need-to-know and
following on from last weekend’s note “Peru: The winner is apathy”,
the “leaders” in the race are Rafael López Aliaga (aka Porky) on 12%
and Keiko Fujimori (aka a bad penny) on 8%, with a gaggle of
wannabes at 4% below them but the overriding datapoint is how 42%
of those questioned are either “spoil ballot” or “no answer”.
One final word on the upcoming election: Reader WD asked this desk
for the name of a possible outsider, one that could come from the pack and upset (what seems to be) the
carefully calculated plans of Keiko and Porky. Fair enough, as Peru has a history of seeing outsiders come
from seemingly nowhere to win elections (even true of Alberto Fujimori in the early 90s, who was an
unknown quantity outside of his Amazon basin fiefdom before rocketing to his first win). Anyway, my pick for
a dark horse in this race is Alfonso López-Chau, who is old (will be 76 this year) and has Lima establishment
background (e.g. was one of the board of the Peru Central Bank) but was encouraged to enter the fray by
several student organizations after he defended them and their protests during their protests against the Dina
Boluarte government and the way she preferred to argue with provincial rank and file by getting the police to
shoot them. So far at least, Alfonso López-Chau has kept a low profile in the election campaign but as last
week marked the official start of the campaign period, which includes the beginning of television ads, debates
and campaign tours across the country, that’s likely to change. He’s not a charismatic personality, but he is
one of the few people running who won’t face vociferous protests and opposition in the provinces of Peru and
that could well work in his favour.
Mexico: Sinaloa is a dangerous place
Last week the Vizsla Silver (VZLA) (VZLA.to) story that’s brewed since late January 23rd blew up into an
international incident covered by mainstream general media channels of all shapes and sizes, in English as
well as Spanish. We offer our sincere and heartfelt condolences to the families affected by the loss of their
loved ones. We also sadly fear that those still officially listed as “disappeared” by authorities have met the
same fate as the five personnel officially recognized as deceased.
There’s no need to re-hash the welter amount now being reported and written on the events in and around
the Concordia region of Sinaloa State, we will however note one development at the end of last week as the
subject came up at the regular presser held by President Claudia Sheinbaum. This report (22) covers the
President’s comments, here’s a translation of the bits that matter:
“The Secretary of Security (Omar García Harfuch) has said that the detainees claim they mistook the
miners for members of a criminal group. That's the information he provided, which is the detainees'
statement,” she said.
However, she clarified that the investigation is ongoing. “Clearly, the prosecutor's office is conducting
a much more thorough investigation. We're not just going to take the detainees' word for it,” she
added.
“The investigation involves speaking with the families, with other mine workers, and also with the
mining industry to understand the circumstances surrounding this tragic and regrettable event,” she
said. President Sheinbaum underscored the importance of victim supporting and investigating
potential corporate implications. “We need to determine the miners' exact working conditions and
whether the mining company bears any responsibility, and conduct a thorough investigation into the
19

causes of this event,” she said. She also stated that the government will enter into dialogue with the
mining sector to assess security risks. “We need to speak with the miners' association and the mining
sector to ascertain whether they are victims of extortion and what we need to do to protect both the
industrial sector and its workforce,” she said.
That’s not good for VZLA at Pánuco on many levels, be it social or financial, but as last week we’re again
going to try to separate the thorny and difficult moral factors and consider this from a pure business focus.
This is a Mexican government that’s now actively looking for reasons not to award permits to mining
companies and, while President Sheinbaum says she’ll stick to her campaign pledge to green light
environmental permits to those projects that comply with the rules and also have community and local
support, this type of publicity does not sit at all well with a project that now has debt on its books and a
timeline that supposed permitting success by mid-2026.
As for the payments “allegedly” made by VZLA to the local narco groups, we’ve seen defenders of the
company using the “yabbut they all do it” line and while certainly true in Mexico, those companies do not
have (at least) 10 dead bodies weighing on their case and a public prosecutor that has already stated it has
evidence Vizsla Silver has been paying protection money and the narco gangs were trying to shake them
down for more. This op-ed in one of my preferred sources for independent thought on Mexican affair, El Sol
de Mexico, lays out the situation clearly (23) and here’s a translated section of the note:
“Extortion goes unreported due to the fear of reprisal, or simply a lack of confidence that cases will be
resolved. Sources tell us that protection rackets and extortion are commonplace in remote areas
where mining operations are located. In this case, in Sinaloa, payments are not recorded not least
because Trump designated the Sinaloa Cartel as a terrorist organization, so declaring these
payments would be tantamount to financing terrorism, and the problems would multiply escalate.
Vizsla Silver would end up being labeled a sponsor of terrorism, a serious problem for the company,
but the cartel doesn't care; they just want money to continue operating.”
This aside from the simple “Who’d want to work there?” question, as Pánuco had a bad enough reputation
before 2026 with revolving-door staff turnover and bad morale. If you were a high quality, experienced
mining brain with a CV and track record of success you get to pick and choose where you make good money
in this sector environment; Would you pick a job that comes with real mortal risk from locals rather than
mere disdain?
So what happens now? First let’s set the scene with a graph and four bullet points on price action:
 When VZLA first announced on the issue, Wednesday January 28th, the (US listed) stock had
closed at U$6.86.
 By the end of that week, Friday January 30th, it was a U$5.08 stock, down 25.9% in the two
days.
 By the end of the next week, Friday, February 6th, it was a U$4.60 stock, down 9.4% week-
over-week.
 By the end of the last week, Friday, February 13th, it was a U$3.84 stock, down another 16.5%
week-over-week.
The top-to-bottom drop is 44.0%, but it’s worth noting that the second week saw a bit of “it can’t be that
bad, can it?” action before the cruel reality was revealed last week. People try to think the best of their
investments, after all. With 349.43m shares out, Friday’s closing price of U$3.84 leaves VZLA with a market
20

cap of U$1.34Bn. For that, you get a company with a large and economically very robust silver mine
development project, plus a reported $500m approx in available liquidity with which to build its mine (though
as $300m of that is the new convertible debt facility, don’t count all of that as equity). You also get one that,
even in the very best of cases, now faces serious issues to its development timeline from both government
and real world factors. All this aside from the revelations now coming to light on how it decided to treat its
most valuable commodity, i.e. its workforce. And U$1.34Bn is a lot of equity now hanging in the balance. On
a personal level I’m not short and do not plan to be, there’s zero attraction for me in trying to take financial
advantage of such an awful sequence of events, it’s not that pleasant to write up on the situation using a
close focus on the pure financials ramifications and what it might meant to the company stock price, either.
However it must be said, while Vizsla Silver is unlikely to see its share price collapse completely and end at
pennies due to the quality, size and grade of the Pánuco deposit, it’s going to take more than hiring the
expensive crisis management team now advising Michael Konnert and the impressively large team of
Vancouver-based corporate executives to save the stock from going lower still once people realize what this
means to the development timeline. VZLA tried to make Sinaloa out to be something it is not, they’ve been
found out in the worst way possible, they will now face the consequences of their subterfuge.
Bolivia aims to attract mining investment
It seems as though Bolivia’s new President, Rodrigo Paz, has taken a leaf out of the Milei playbook when it
comes to mining and if things go well, that can only be good for mining FDI on the outside of the country
looking in (e.g. you and me). In an interview last week (24), the government’s Minister of the Economy and
Public Finances (i.e. FinMin), Gabriel Espinoza, said that the country is looking to attract U$2Bn in forieng
direct investment into the country’s mining and agro sectors between now and the end of 2027. According to
Señor Espinoza, the government plan includes incentives for FDI, including changes to the current investment
laws, tax laws, hydrocarbons sector laws and reforms and updates to the mining laws. The aim is to provide
an attractive and stable playing field to win the trust of foreign investment dollars.
But only if things go well: Bolivia is still in a highly volatile political situation and President Paz faces all sorts
of pushback and opposition for his plans to drag Bolivia into the 21st century, as see most recently in the
“gasolinazo” protests that brought the country to a halt. We don’t know any of the details of the plan yet, but
the similarity to the Milei strategy in Argentina’s mining sector is clear.
Market Watching
A brief update on Quilla Resources
Back in December 2024 we reported on the news that the CEO of Peru’s very big and extremely profitable
Antamina mine complex, Victor Gobitz, had resigned his post in order to head up a new private capitals
company, Quilla Resources, that had just bought the mothballed Chapi copper mine from Nexa for the
princely dum of U$5m. Located in the South of Peru on the border of Arequipa and Moquegua provinces,
Chapi is a historic underground copper operation that fell into disuse and went care&maintenance under
Nexa, but has a very long history of production and before closing became a cathode producer, with its own
SX-EW plant on site. At the time of reporting on the transaction (25), word was that Quilla would soon
become a publicly listed company and that’s the main attraction to outsiders such as I, but to date it’s
remained private while turning Chapi around and getting it ramped back up. However, last week brought
news from the company (26) that’s worthy of mention:
“Quilla Resources Inc. (“Quilla” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the successful production
of its first copper cathodes from the Chapi copper project in southern Peru on February 9, 2026.”
Please see the link for more, but the basic story is that Chapi is now in ramp-up phase and should hit full
nameplate capacity later this year. What matters to us on the outside is any news on its eventual IPO and the
opportunity to buy into this story, as Victor Gobitz is someone this desk would back in a heartbeat and no
matter what his plans are for Quilla, an early position in the company is as close to a guaranteed win you can
get in Peruvian mining. Watch this space as, if Quilla makes its public move, you’ll get to hear all about it and
how to get involved.
21

A brief update on Mayfair Gold (MFG.v) and the Fenn-Gib project
Since we ran our introductory report on Mayfair Gold (MFG.v) (MINE) a little over a month ago, in IKN868
dated January 11th and the Fundamental Analysis note
“Mayfair Gold (MFG.v) and an interesting gold project”, the
company has been busy and has given us no fewer then
seven NRs, so instead of linking them all here’s the link to
the company’s news page (25) and to the right, a
screenshot of the NR headlines and dates to give you the
idea. While we’re at it, they’ve also updated the corporate
presentation and this link (26) takes you there (dated
February 13th, nice and fresh). Clearly, some of the events
have been more important than others so to pick out the
interesting moments: We now have the 43-101 technical
report and PFS, compiled by Ausenco and with an effective
date of December 19th 2025. That document will form the
basis of our eventual project valuation come the day we
decide to pull the trigger and, as PFS's go, it's a complete
and comprehensive document that again points to the
seriousness of this team and their ambitions at Fenn-Gib. After that, MFG didn't wait around to deliver on its
promise to obtain a full US listing, with the new MINE ticker (very nice) going live on the NYSE on January
27th. Finally, let's point out the February 5th NR “Mayfair Submits Fenn-Gib Gold Project Notice of Project
Status” and to explain why we like it, here’s a quote from the text:
“The submission of the NPS formally registers the Fenn-Gib Gold Project with the Province of Ontario
and notifies the Ministry of Energy and Mines (“MEM”) that the Company intends to advance the
Project to become a "mine in production" as defined in the Ontario Mining Act.”
We remind readers that the pathway chosen by MFG at Fenn-Gib is to start production at a relatively low
throughput rate (4,800tpd) compared to the overall resource size, focus on the high grading “starter pit” area
and run at around 60,000 to 70,000 ounces per year for the first years, as that will allow the project to get its
permits from Ontario government, a far quicker process than if it went for a larger mine size that requires
permits at Canadian national government level. This NPS submission means that regional permitting track is
now underway, bt perhaps more importantly it reminds us that MFG isn‘t playing fakey-fakey just to run the
share price up or trying to flip out the project to a larger operator, they really are going to build a gold mine
and operate it themselves. At some point in 2026, the market is going to take notice of what’s happening at
Fenn-Gib and realize this company has serious intentions and, with Muddy Waters backing the structure, is
unlikely to be left wanting for capex funding when the moment arrives.
For the time being, I’m happy to keep MFG (or MINE, as for my own sweet reasons I’ll probably use the NYSE
for any eventual purchase) on the Watch List and see how the story develops, but so far at least it’s made all
the right moves and I’m suitably impressed.
This price chart shows a few of the things that have happened since then, including some very strange
trading on January 27th, the first trading day of MINE in NYSE. Though now past history and still somewhat
anecdotal and unofficial, we hear the big drop was caused by a mistake made by certain brokerages when
the new ticker, MINE, showed up on the NYSE. Through no fault of the company or the exchange, at least
22

one brokerage mixed up the ticker with one that already existed, that company’s shares wer a lot cheaper
than Mayfair Gold’s shares and as a result, a few lucky traders suddenly found their accounts debited with far
more money than they had the day before. The quick witted among them promptly liquidated their positions
and took the cash, the influx of selling caused MFG shares to cave in briefly and by the time the mistake had
been identified, MFG shares had been on quite the intraday rollercoaster. It’s a side issue these days (though
rather interesting) and for our purposes, the best thing to do is completely ignore that drop/rebound on
Janaury 27th and 28th. Right after that came the peak of the metals hype run and MFG also hit its high point,
it also did the same as many other issues and sold off one gold (and the other metals) reversed and dropped
its U$500/oz. Since then MFG has fiddled around in the C$5.20 - C$5.60 range as seen, with Friday’s close at
C$5.40.
Which brings us to the final point made on the above price chart, as back in IKN868 MFG.v was a C$5.32
stock, this weekend it’s C$5.40 and while it’s a little unfair to pick just one stock, in the same time Tiernan
Gold (TNGD.v) is up 35% (just saying). In other words, watching-not-owning MFG hasn’t cost us in the last
five weeks and now we have more information to chew over on the company, that’s a good thing.
Conclusion
IKN873 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Tiernan (TNGD.v) has “winner” written all over it and with the start of its promo push last week, it only
needs to to remain where it is to move a lot higher. It’s time to get on.
 I also like how West Red Lake (WRLG.v) is shaping up, though the way it trades makes it clear there
are still doubters in the audience.
 Overall, I’m still in “wait and see” mode, happy to have raised cash and also happy that my nerves
have been proven a little wrong, so far at least, by a market that’s seen gold return to the $5k line,
even if silver and now copper look less robust. I’ve spent a lot of this week’s letter hand-wringing about
copper because that’s the place to look for direction,
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-is-pricing-scarcity-time-plenty-2026-02-13/
(2) https://x.com/i/status/2023405376100823261
(3) https://www.reuters.com/business/us-dollar-rebound-be-cut-short-by-rate-cut-bets-doubts-over-fed-independence-2026-02-04/
(4) https://www.tiernangold.com/news/2026/index.php?content_id=87
(5) https://www.tiernangold.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=021203
(6) www.virtualinvestorconferences.com/wcc/eh/4814904/lp/5227177/west-red-lake-gold-mines-ltd-otcqx-wrlgf-tsxv-wrlg
(7) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwCVSDW9lZ4
(8) https://www.mining.com/copper-price-strains-deepen-as-global-smelting-activity-hits-decade-low/
(9) https://earthi.space/press/global-copper-smelting-at-lowest-level-on-record-for-january/
(10) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-announces-upsize-of-private-placement-to-20-million/
(11) https://algo-grande.com/news/algo-grande-copper-announces-5-million-non-brokered-private-placement-for-phase-ii-drilling
(12) https://www.hotchili.net.au/UploadImages/announcements/20260213-Hot-Chili-Closes-A$40-Million-Private-Placement-791.pdf
(13) https://metalenergy.ca/news-releases/metal-energy-appoints-charlie-greig-as-ceo/
23

(14) https://www.agnicoeagle.com/English/news-and-media/news-releases/news-details/2026/AGNICO-EAGLE-REPORTS-FOURTH-
QUARTER-AND-FULL-YEAR-2025-RESULTS---RECORD-QUARTERLY-AND-ANNUAL-FREE-CASH-FLOW-2025-PRODUCTION-
GUIDANCE-ACHIEVED-TOTAL-2025-SHAREHOLDER-RETURNS-OF-1-4-BILLION-DIVIDEND-INCREASED-BY-12-5-UPDATED-
THREE-YEAR-GUIDANCE/default.aspx
(15) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-13/world-no-2-gold-miner-is-willing-to-move-on-m-a-ceo-says
(16) https://lundingold.com/news/lundin-gold-extends-porphyry-corridor-to-10kms-wit-122830/
(17) https://www.mining.com/web/lundin-gold-to-invest-100-million-in-2026-ecuador-exploration/
(18) https://auriginal.ca/news/auriginal-receives-permit-approvals-to-commence-roger-project-drilling/
(19) https://www.prensa.com/economia/morgan-stanley-preve-que-el-gobierno-de-mulino-intentara-reabrir-la-mina-cobre-panama-por-
decreto/
(20) https://www.prensa.com/economia/auditoria-a-la-mina-de-donoso-registra-avance-del-61-segun-el-tercer-informe-publicado-por-
miambiente/
(21) https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/intencion-de-voto-febrero-2026-encuesta-peru-21-ipsos
(22) https://forbes.com.mx/sheinbaum-apunta-a-la-extorsion-como-el-posible-movil-del-asesinato-de-mineros-en-sinaloa/
(23) https://oem.com.mx/elsoldemexico/analisis/aguas-profundas-los-mineros-asesinados-28388447
(24) https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/02/09/bolivia-espera-recibir-inversiones-por-unos-1680-millones-de-euros-en-
mineria-y-agroindustria-para-2027/
(25) https://x.com/i/status/1870077948696617318
(26) https://quillaresources.com/news/quilla-resources-inc-announces-first-copper-cathode-production-at-the-chapi-copper-project/
(27) https://mayfairgold.ca/news/#mr
(28) https://mayfairgold.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Mayfair-Gold-Presentation-Deck-Feb-2026-Final-02132026.1-1.pdf
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2025
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
Minera Alamos MAI.v Aug'25 C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% lightened overweight position
Surge Copper SURG.v Sep'25 $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.215 104.8% took profits, good result
Provenance Gold PAU.cse Oct'25 C$0.15 27-Aug-25 C$0.265 76.7% took profits, good result
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
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Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
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Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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