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The IKN Weekly
Week 872, week of February 8th 2026
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, US Jobs Wednesday, The true investor welcomes volatility*.
Fundamental Analysis: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to): A new target price for our Top Pick stock.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to), Blue Moon Metals
(MOON.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v), Gold Royalty Corp (GROY), Salazar Resources
(SRL.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Aurion Resources (AU.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Copper Giant (CGNT.v), Algo Grande Copper (ALGR.v), Andina Copper
(ANDC.v), Kobrea Exploration Corp (KBX.cn).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Alamos Gold (AGI), Barrick (B), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Americas Gold &
Silver (USAS) (USA.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Canex Metals (CANX.v), Sranan Gold (SRAN.cn).
Regional Politics: Peru: The winner is apathy, Colombia is increasingly a Cepeda versus de la Espriella
election, Mexico: More on the ten kidnapped workers.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 No new trades planned for the week ahead, which is pleasant to report after last week’s rebalancing
flurry. The volatility was much as expected last week, though it has to be said that Friday’s upturn and
today Monday’s continuation are very welcome, though less about gold (and the other metals) and
more about the USD. We chew it over in today’s intro, plus there are notes on how the re-balancing
trades went in the Stocks to Follow section. Overall I’m now comfortable with the reduced exposure,
though still obviously long the juniors sector and still willing prices higher.
 Today’s main fundies section covers the stock that matters most to this publication, the Top Pick Rio2
Ltd (RIO.to) and it’s nice to be the purveyor of good news on this trade. The incorporation of
Condestable has gone as planned, Fenix has made first pour on time and budget (a feat in itself), the
prices of gold and copper have done what they’ve done and while the recent volatility has seen the
stock price come off a little, we got very close to pinging the current price target recently. That’s the
combination which says “Time to update the model”.
 The news from The Vizsla Silver (VZLA.to) (VZLA) Panuco project in Sinaloa, Mexico, has got worse as
the days pass. While it’s still an ongoing and dynamic story (including bad news today Monday), we
update and consider what it might mean for the company and perhaps as importantly, the growing
likelihood of it causing a chilling effect across the Mexico exploreco and developer sub-sector.
 Considering the apathy in the Peru election campaign is one thing, but the real fight is still brewing in
Colombia as another poll indicates the right wing is favoured, but by no means a shoo-in.
US Jobs Wednesday
They used to say “In a change to usual programming”. It’s normally a Friday, they’re still catching up, the
government mini-shutdown last week caused another small delay and as a result, the BLS Employment
Report for January is due out this Wednesday. According to the venerable Bill McBride (1). “…consensus is for
85,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%. There were 50,000 jobs added
1

in December, and the unemployment rate was at 4.4%.” So now you know and of course, the world (and the
Warshified Fed) will be looking for reasons to cut rates. Sometimes the US Jobs report is “highly anticipated
and with the potential to move the market, sometimes the result is less important and likely baked in already,
this one is shaping as one of the latter but this is markets and you never know. On that subject…
The true investor welcomes volatility*
To expect the unexpected shows
a thoroughly modern intellect
An Ideal Husband, Oscar Wilde, 1894
Last week’s intro, “Kevin Warsh stops the music”, along with the somewhat improvised main fundies section
that laid out the portfolio rebalancing trades, made it clear that we should expect volatility in the gold and
miners’ markets. And sure enough…
…we got volatility. We also got the pop into Tuesday/Wednesday that allowed your author to sell what he
wanted to sell reasonably easily and, in a couple of cases, at a better price than Friday’s finish. We also got
the kind move in the gold/silver ratio we’d sketched out and while it will take time for it to float back up to
the 80X line, the simple change in trend will suck the speculative fervor out of the junior mining sector. True
for silver companies, true for companies focused on other metals as well (chart from here (2)).
As for a call on the week ahead, that’s a straightforward “expect more of the same”. The Friday gold price
rally was a welcome way to end the week, but it doesn’t mean the market has stopped shaking after its
January rip and spike high. As such, for the time being your author is sticking to the “Assume the music has
paused, rather than stopped” position, so there’s no need to do any more portfolio trimming for the time
being. Which of course means that…
…if the market slumps, I didn’t sell enough…
…if the market rallies I was stupid to sell…
But that’s okay, this is not about trying to impress anyone (and certainly not myself), it’s about portfolio
management and as things stand today, the extra cash now squirreled away as treasury makes a lot of
sense. We await calmer waters.
*A Buffett quote, for what it’s worth.
2

UPDATE MONDAY: A good day today as well, but still taking nothing for granted. It’s worth mentioning that
the mini rally in gold (and other metals) is all about the renewed weakness in the US Dollar, with the Warsh
rally seemingly come to an abrupt end. However, it only takes a new bit of well-timed jawbone for that to
reverse again, so we will continue to expect the Wildean unexpected.
The bottom line: The first time I heard about the “Good Night’s Sleep Principle” of junior investment was
back in 2008, the term either coined or used by Paul van Eeden. It’s something that felt right as soon as I
heard it and over the years it’s held me in good stead. Therefore, I also thoroughly recommend you do the
same, use the principle and if any of your stock positions are causing you to lose sleep, sell them. Point
blank. Last week’s re-balancing didn’t come after any lost sleep, but the relaxed feeling that came after
trimming exposure and raising cash was the same. I’m now comfortable with my level of exposure to the
market, happy that the vast majority of my cash is running in (what I consider to be) quality stories and
solidly constituted companies and ready to let the market prove me a chicken for selling too early and
quickly. The gold rally over the last couple of days (or USD weakness , if you prefer) is welcome but that
doesn’t mean I’m ready to start deploying the cash cushion again (expect in Tiernan, where I am
accumulating). I expect the volatility to continue and that means moves both up and down.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to): A new target price for our Top Pick stock
Since we last wrote in detail on the IKN Weekly Top Pick and largest personal position in the junior miners’
market, Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to), it seems that only good things have happened to the stock:
 The Fenix mine has been commissioned and first gold poured
 The Condestable mine acquisition has closed in good order
 The gold price has risen: Es even if we ignore the late January spike, gold has moved from
around U$4,400/oz to today’s price around U$5,000/oz.
 Same with the price of copper, up around 20% since the announcement of the Condestable
acquisition at the start of December (just two months ago)
A whole hatful of catalysts and reasons to re-rate the company, substantive changes all over the place and
for a change in this crazy world of juniors, all the main developments at Rio2 seem to have been positive. We
sketch on the three big changes:
 Fenix: Do not underestimate the fact that RIO.to has delivered its flagship mine on time and on budget,
that’s becoming an increasingly rare occurrence. Also for what it’s worth, I’d heard on the grapevine just
before Christmas that RIO.to had managed a very early first pour but was asked to keep it quiet. I
agreed, because the pour had come more as part of circuit testing and would have sent a false
impression, but what it does show is that leach kinetics are excellent and how meaningful pregnant
solution came off the pad within days of the start of irrigation. That’s important for this direct placement
material, showing RIO.to’s decision to leave out a crushing circuit to be the right one.
3

 Condestable: As for the initially surprising purchase of an established copper mine in Peru, the deal
quickly overcame early pushback about a gold company buying a copper mine (e.g. Cantor Fitzgerald
analyst Matthew O’Keefe of Cantor Fitzgerald, who, downgraded Rio2 Limited Hold from Buy with a
C$2.50 and was “not overly enamored with the deal” and its “questionable timing”. For the record,
O´Keefe now has RIO.to at C$4.70 and a buy, so it jjust goes to show what first impressions can do for
you. It’s still something to consider and to give Mr. O´Keefe a little credit (more than he deserves), there
is a segment of investment society that likes its miners as “pure plays” and may look elsewhere for their
gold exposure now RIO.to gets around a quarter of its forecast mine life revenue from copper. However,
the deal makes plenty of sense from just about any other angle you care to consider, with Condestable
playing right into RIO.to’s strong suits on geography, social know-how and will also throw off enough free
cash flow to fund much of its expansion plans at both assets.
 Metals prices. Meanwhile, what is there left to say about the price of gold (and copper)?. When setting
the previous price target, your author hummed and hawed about pitching as high as (gasps internally)
U$3,500/oz for gold. Ot if you prefer, when gold dropped back to U$4,000/oz in October and early
November, I said on the record that I’d take that long-term price for RIO.to revenues very happily. Here
were are just a quarter down the line and gold once again touching U$5,000/oz, and copper also doing
us proud at U$5.80/lb. For sure we like the deal to buy Condestable and the Fenix build-out process has
been impeccable, but the most important factor on the share price going forward is the new price deck
for metals and, as long as the mines perform to expectations, RIO.to finds itself in the right place at the
right time to benefit from the metals bonanza.
Due to that, our task today is more a numbercrunch than a re-working of what we already know about
operations and plans, the new price target will take as read many of our previous assumptions for both
mines, refine some details but then make the case for higher target from sales revenue and margin.
Regarding that, the last time we looked carefully at our Top Pick was in the pair of notes seen in IKN863
dated December 7th and the ‘Market Watching note “Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) buys a copper mine”,
then the following weekend in IKN864 dated December 14th and the ‘Market Watching note “Rio2
Ltd (RIO.to) buys a copper mine, Part Deux.” Those notes are best reviewed as a pair, with the first a
brief overview of the deal as announced on the day of publication, Monday December 8th and then we took
a preliminary look at Condestable and what it offers the company the following week.
We won’t overlap much on those, instead here come some numbers starting with a review of the basic
corporate structure via our standard topbox:
Shares out: 525.5m
Options: 16.6m
RSU: 1.3m
Warrants: Zero
Fully diluted: 543.4m
Share price: C$3.15
Market Cap: C$1.6553Bn
Approx cash per S/O: C$0.11
All prices Canadian Dollars unless stated, forex CAD$1 = USD 0.73
In our previous pro-forma estimate your author overestimated the number of shares out, but the fully diluted
count was very close and in this case, that’s the one that matters most (and the one we use for our
calculations. There’s not much cash at the moment, but that’s okay because the gold is now flowing from the
early Fenix production and RIO will immediately benefit from the Condestable cash flow, there’s no chance of
a cash crunch here and treasury should expend soon enough.
As for our valuation and target price generation method, we’re going to stick with the Discounted Cash Flow
(DCF) method previously used to generate the C$4.13 price target (that was very nearly pinged ten days
ago). As mentioned at the time, I’m not a massive fan of DCF as it’s prone to analytic reverse engineering
(i.e. decide what answer you want and play with the numbers until you get it, thereby pleasing your boss or
audience) but in this case it’s the only method that truly captures the value RIO.to shows in the long-term.
Late last week one reader mailed in to request that I show operating profit forecasts for 2027, presumably
because he gets that 2026 is going to be a ramp-up year and not representative of the cash RIO.to is going
to make over time, but even 2027 will be left for dust when “Big Fenix” rolls out (i.e. the growth plans that
4

make Fenix a 300koz/year operation, plus the expected expansion at Condestable (all that needs is capex and
time).
Therefore, our previous assumptions and estimates on growth, capex, timeline and eventual production
increases again get used today. In the case of Fenix, this year is estimated at just over 62,000oz gold and the
first 100k oz year is 2027, which then dips slightly according to the feasibility study. However, we assume
RIO.to moves forward with “Big Fenix” expansion and come 2032, the mine is a 300k oz/year entity. As for
AISC, we use house assumptions based on the current Feasibility Study (FS) but increased by a global 20%:
Meanwhile at Condestable, the first years run at the current average copper output of around 40m lbs/year,
the variations mostly caused by grade and the mining sequence. From there, we assume RIO.to moves on its
plans to increase throughput at the mine and as from 2029 we get annual production running at between
20% and 30% higher than the current model. Also, please note our assumptions are for payable production,
rather than gross.
Condestable Cu production at constant 8,400 tpd
and eventual 12,000tpd upgrade
5
87.24 25.24 05.04 91.04 46.93 16.93 85.34 72.44 51.05
42.86
31.64
80.46
89.64
47.56
15.64
75.66
45.83
95.65
71.04
52.85
34.73
14.26
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
source: 43-101 technical report, IKN calcs
raey/sblM
uC
throughput as per 43-101 report
thruput 8,400tpd then 12,000tpd
Neither should we forget the useful gold kicker that comes from Condestable. This consolidated gold
production forecast chart shows that Fenix production will always be the lion’s share, but the projected
ounces in the next three to four years are certainly useful and make up between 9% and 13% of expected
annual production (pre-royalty).
RIO.to: Consolidated gold production forecast
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
6202 7202 8202 9202 0302 1302 2302 3302 4302 5302 6302 7302 8302 9302 0402 1402
RIO.to at Fenix: Annual gold production estimate
Oz Au
Condestable
Fenix
source: company filing
00226 004901 004601 00159 00009 000051
000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000 100000
50000
0
6202 7202 8202 9202 0302 1302 2302 3302 4302 5302 6302 7302 8302 9302 0402 1402
RIO.to at Fenix: Feas Study AISC estimates vs our 2025 Oz Au
model estimated AISC
source: company filings, IKN ests
6311 0061 6731 0071 5601 0051 9911 0051 9521 0081 5641 0081 5121 0041 0931 0041
FS AISC
U$/oz Au
est model AISC
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 800 600
400
200
0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
source: company filings, IKN ests and calcs etc

That’s very useful cash flow (and we include the minor silver credit as AuEq, as well). That’s the overview of
production expectations done…
 Fenix comes online and performs as expected
 Fenix gets its growth project online as from 2032
 Condestable continues to produce as expected
 Condestable gets its growth project online as from 2029
...and while we are assuming fair sailing, we can and do adjust for risk later using discount rates, weight
adjusted cost of capital (WACC) etc later in the financial model, i.e. things do not have to go perfectly in
order to hit our new target price. But what really matters now is the revenue and cost inputs, so:
 We consolidate gold and copper production into a single model (creating a very different DCF model
than the previous, Fenix-only model)
 We use cash cost assumptions of 120% of those in the RIO.to 43-101 studies for both mines
 We estimate consolidated capex over the life of both mines at U$1.2Bn, enough to build out Fenix, put
in that infamous water pipeline and expand Condestable production as envisaged. Please note our
U$1.2Bn is clear on the conservative side and allows plenty of leeway for further cost hikes
 We then make further conservatively pitched assumptions, such as assuming just 85% of Condestable
gold and silver is payable and the Franco-Nevada royalty stays in place.
 DD&A is doubled to take into account the higher deprecation expected by the mature Condestable
mine, despite is relatively smaller size and asset value.
 The consolidated effective tax rate is increased by 3% compared to the previous model, as RIO.to will
not benefit from the same amount of breaks in Peru as they will at its newly built Chile mine
 The conservatively pitched U$1.2Bn in capex is deployed as from 2027, with the most expensive year
expected in 2029 (U$350m) and the final year of expansion works in 2032.
As a preview of the final target generator, if we assume our preferred price deck of U$4,000/oz gold and
U$4.50/lb copper, the projected annual free cash flow chart demonstrates why it’s a mistake to try to value
RIO.to on its first years of production. Not only do we have to wait until both mines are fully built out before
the real value is created, but the front-loaded capex means that the first years won’t see much in the way of
bottom line profits
RIO.to: Calculated annual free cash flow
(at U$4,000/oz gold and U$4.50/lb copper)
6
0.132 0.922
0.37
9.101
7.802 8.273 9.428 5.529 4.249 9.989 3.8401 3.677 3.677 3.677 3.677 3.677
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
6202 7202 8202 9202 0302 1302 2302 3302 4302 5302 6302 7302 8302 9302 0402 1402
U$m
source: IKN calcs from company data
On the other hand, the change in cash generation potential once Fenix is enlarged and Condestable gets its
growth package is simply enormous, even if we ignore the current high spot prices and pitch at the metals
levels seen two quarters ago.
As for the final target price table, this is similar to to previous presentation but has been adjusted to include
copper and gold price assumptions. We offer six price cases…
 Stress case: Gold U$3,000/oz, copper U$3.50/lb
 Base case: Gold U$3,500/oz, copper U$4.00/lb
 Conservative case: Gold U$4,000/oz, copper U$4.50/lb
 Realist case: Gold U$4,500/oz, copper U$5.00/lb
 Optimist case: Gold U$5,000/oz, copper U$5.50/lb
 Current spot/blue sky case: Gold U$5,500/oz, copper U$6.00/lb

…and while you’re welcome to disagree with me, my preference when valuing mining companies is still to
pitch to the conservative side, so my target is based on the middle of the range. We then offer five different
discount rates, with the 5% there to show you more than anything else just why companies like to use it in
their marketing literature. There isn’t a junior out there with access to capital at a such a low rate and these
days, 15% is what the Rio2’s of this world must pay. There is an argument to use 12% (or even 10%) once
costs are embedded and the build out is completed successfully, but once again and for the sake of
conservatism I much prefer to aim low.
This is the table that results from that numbercrunch, assuming life of mine production at the requisite
discount rates:
RIO.to Consolidated: Price target range at various discount rates and gold prices (CAD$)
Au Au Au Au Au
Disc. Rate Au U$3k/oz U$3.5K/oz U$4K/oz U$4.5K/oz U$5K/oz U$5.5K/oz
Cu Cu Cu Cu Cu Cu
(WACC) U$3.50/lb U$4.00/lb U$4.50/lb U$5.00/lb U$5.50/lb U$6.00/lb
5% 6.57 10.03 13.5 16.96 20.43 23.89
8% 4.36 7.18 9.99 12.81 15.63 18.45
10% 3.24 5.72 8.2 10.67 13.15 15.63
12% 2.32 4.52 C$6.72 C$8.94 11.12 13.32
15% 1.25 3.11 C$4.97 C$6.84 8.7 10.57
source: IKN calcs from company data
As you can probably make out, my idea of a reasonable target zone is at the 12% or 15% discount rate using
the Conservative (gold U$4,000/oz, copper U$4.50/lb) or realist (gold U$4,500/oz, copper U$5.00/lb) price
decks. Biut even the lowest of those now offers a price target of C$4.97 (with USD/CAD forex as per this
weekend), representing an upside of 57.8%. However and after due consideration, I’m going to pitch my new
price target at the higher “Realist Case”, assume neither gold nor copper drop much in the year to come and
aim for a RIO.to that leaves 2026 at C$6.84, representing an upside of 117.1% to this weekend.
Bottom line: As the above table shows, it would be easy to run with an optimized set of figures from RIO.to
projections at its two mines and come up with a target price that blows out the eyeballs, but that’s not what
we’re about on these pages. Instead, by assuming things go well over the long-term and pitching
conservative price and cost dynamics, we offer a price target with plenty of leeway and risk adjustment that
still looks very attractive compared to this weekend’s share price. I’m well aware of how much RIO.to has run
in the last two years and the profits are most welcome, but now is simply not the time to cash in and leave
because there’s no amount of profit still left to come from this company, perfectly positioned to take full
advantage of the high metals prices as it moves into production and near-instant profitability this year. We
expect great things and strongly advise holders to keep on holding, the best is yet to come. Thie house Top
Pick confirmed.
Stocks to Follow
We’ll start with the basic headcount and if we consider all the eightenn Stocks to Follow on the list this time
last week, eleven were losers (RIO.to, MARI.to, GROY, WRLG.v, WDO.to, RPX.v, AMC.to, SRL.v, MOON.v,
MFG.v, MENE.v) and of those, big week-over-week percentage hits were taken by just two stocks, namely
Blue Moon (MOON.v down 19.5%) and Red Pine/RPX Gold (RPX.v down 18.2%) and for what it’s worth, we
managed to sell both those at higher prices than Friday’s close. So overall is was a negative week after a
volatile time seen in gold and the metals, but there was no panic selling involved and in general, volumes
allow those who wanted out to get out without too much pain (and vice versa for bargain hunters).
There were good stock performances too, with week-over-week wins registered in five stocks (TNGD.v,
MAI.v, AU.v, LMS.v, OCI.v) with a particularly pleasing move in Aurion Resources (AU.v up 14.5%) and two
others unchanged (ARG.to, MIRL.cse). It was good to see last week buyers in TNGD, too.
With the sales of last week there are now fifteen companies left on our Stocks to Follow list, five under our
self-imposed maximum and your author now has a decent slug of cash on the sidelines, waiting for the
7

market to define direction going forward. Three of the covered stocks are in the red and the one that annoys
most is Wesdome, while the other twelve are in the green.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$3.15 293.8% New tgt C$6.84
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$5.56 261.0% Core copper position
Tiernan Gold TNGD.v STR BUY C$7.67 29-Dec-25 C$8.09 5.5% new Chile gold jr, adding
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$11.11 264.3% Quality Cu dev, M&A tgt
Gold Royalty Co GROY hold/buy U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$4.22 201.4% 2nd tgt U$5 hit, hold for buyout
Minera Alamos MAI.v hold/sell C$2.10 13-Oct-19 C$5.82 177.1% $7.00 tgt, 25% of trade left
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.88 20-Jul-25 C$1.17 33.0% re-rate trade, $1.44 tgt close
Wesdome Gold WDO.to STR BUY C$22.42 30-Nov-25 C$21.61 -3.6% 2026 M&A tgt trade
Aurion Res AU.v BUY C$1.07 21-Sep-25 C$1.66 55.1% Agnico will buy more Finland
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.225 181.3% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.27 42.1% proj.generator, Organullo spec
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.105 75.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Mayfair Gold MFG.v WATCH C$5.32 11-Jan-26 C$5.43 2.1% Canada gold project, watching
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.20 -55.6% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
American Eagle AE.v Jan'26 C$0.495 14-Dec-25 C$0.61 27.3% TLS trade, modest, successful
Electrum Disc ELY.v Jan'26 C$0.075 9-Nov-25 C$0.10 33.3% took quick profit on buyout
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'26 C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$5.46 254.5% partial profit-take on port mgmt
XXIX Metal XXIX.v Jan'26 C$0.11 27-Aug-25 C$0.125 13.6% spec copper trade, bad result
Valkea Res OZ.v Jan'26 C$0.36 29-Dec-25 C$0.48 33.3% took NT profit TLS trade
Arizona Metals AMC.to Feb'26 C0.69 5-Oct-25 C$0.66 -4.3% sold to rebalance port, Feb'26
Red Pine Expl RPX.v Feb'26 C$0.12 8-Sep-24 C$0.195 62.5% sold to rebalance port, Feb'26
Minera Alamos MAI.v Feb'26 C$2.10 13-Oct-19 C$6.22 196.2% 75% of trade sold Q1
Blue Moon MOON.v Feb'26 C$4.18 30-Nov-25 C$5.84 39.7% sold to rebalance port, Feb'26
2015 to 2025 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered stocks:
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): POSITION CLOSED. Darned thing sold off way too hard for its own good
on Tuesday, but I sold anyway. Equally I could have got 20c or 20.5c if I’d tried harder, but didn’t and felt
slightly better about my laizness when it dropped on Thursday to as low as 17c before closing the week at
18c. An inauspicious end to this trade, but portfolio management is what matters at times like these.
Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): POSITION CLOSED. Getting 66c was a reasonable out under the
circumstances, though AMC stayed at that level nearly all week, give or take a penny. I’m fully aware of the
value I’m leaving on the table for someone else if the PEA comes in as I expect, but this is portfolio
management.
Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v): POSITION CLOSED. It’s doesn’t often happen this sharply, but there’s no
doubt I got out well at my C$5.84 selling price, a number that also managed to bag a useful 40% win on this
trade. The chart underscores my luck, as the sales happened literally the day before MOON.v gave up the
gains accumulated during the whole of 2026. To reiterate, MOON.v was perhaps the most difficult sale
8

decision I made last week and a ticker that will stay at the centre of my stocks radar page going forward. If
there’s one that I’ll buy back without a second thought if the macro stabilizes to our favour, it’s this one.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): SOLD 75%, WILL HOLD REMNANT (probably). When deciding to sell my
MAI.v the plan was to take the time required to fish the right exit price, be patient and then add a “closed
position” line item once they were all gone. That plan changed last week and as a result, I’m going to mark
the sales differently in order to keep this as transparent as possible. We now have this:
 A closed position line with the average received price for shares sold to date; approx 75% of the position
is out at C$6.22
 I plan to hold the remnant for higher prices, e.g. something around C$7.00. The “probably” is because if
there’s a sudden reversal and the music has truly stopped on gold and the sector, I’ll dump the MAI.v
remnant as it’s an obvious place to liquidate quickly. Be clear I’m not expecting to do that.
 Once they go I’ll add a second and separate closed positions line item, but until then the remnant MAI.v
shares are a hold.
We also had two NRs from MAI.v last week, the first announcing it had found another way to spend treasury
at corporate level (3) ($6k/month to a market maker) and the second announcing the 2026 production
guidance for Pan (4). The NR was quite long and covered some minor issues, but the three things that matter
are (and we quote):
 “The Company’s 2026 guidance for gold production at the Pan mine is 32,000–38,000 ounces”. That
gives a median average of 9,000oz/qtr and is right on expectations
 “2026 cost guidance for the Pan mine includes cash costs of US$1,750–1,900 per ounce gold and AISC of
US$1,850–2,000 per ounce.” That’s up slightly, but under the circumstances cost inflation is going to
happen and the world knows the gold price hike more than covers inflation in PM mining.
 “Approximately $13.5 million in non-sustaining capital is forecasted to be spent in 2026 on capitalized
stripping at the Pan mine, relating to pre-stripping activities at the South pit.” That’s a reminder MAI.v
will not rely on cash flow to construct Copperstone and they
will dilute further.
That’s fair enough, I’m not criticizing (too much) and I also
note that medium-term planning such as improving the Pan
strip is what you’d expect from a serious mining company. But
it also means 2026 won’t be the year its financials sparkle
compared to peers, as MAI is setting itself up to be a growth
story over a longer timeline. Again I’d generally applaud that
strategy and under other circumstances it would make me
consider holding through…at least a little. But I don’t leave my
money with people who lie to me, particularly when the
subject in question has the track record of failure he has. No
trust = find another place to invest, there are hundreds of juniors to choose from.
Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v): ADDED. I am adding TNGD shares more quickly than I originally expected and by
the way it’s trading, that’s the right path to take. I managed to bag chunks at under C$8.00 and got my cost
9

average down a little, only to watch it rally Friday and close with a modest week-over-week win. Please note
that Tiernan is now in 3rd spot on the above table; sensu stricto MARI.to is still the bigger position in my
personal portfolio, but I’ve put it where it is deliberately to underscore how bullish I feel about this company’s
chances and the high likelihood that I’ll keep adding and it becomes bigger again.
We remind readers that we expect TNGD to ramp up its marketing activities as we enter the (Northern)
spring conference season and while BMO is more about the bigger companies doing deals, PDAC will be
made to measure for an exploreco such as this, with big story to tell and a team with established connections
to a host of media outlets. So tick those boxes:
 Right metal
 Right team
 Right location
 Right time
It would be very cool to add at my cost average, but if the market shows that it’s ready to re-price TNGD to
where I think it’s going, i.e. around the C$15 level, I won’t wait around to tell you guys so consider this a
“I’m still adding” note.
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): Here right is how GROY has
done compared to the GDX benchmark since reporting its
4q25 sales/revenue on January 21st:
Not great and the type of performance you get when a
royaltyco is fully valued and then sends mediocre numbers
to market. We looked at those numbers in the main fundies
section of IKN870 dated January 25th, agreed they didn’t
sparkle, but we’re also clear as to why this stock has upside.
For one, it’s not priced on anything it’s already done but for
what’s coming, for another it’s the obvious buyout candidate
when Tether moves to consolidate its new precious metals
plaything. And so we will hold, but it’s worth noting that at
this new level GROY is almost a buy again as it would offer nigh on 20% for your money to U$5.00. I’d still
buy Rio2 first at this price deck, though.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): The news from SRL and SVM last week on the progress at El
Domo/Curipamba came with positives, negatives and neutral. The main positive is the obvious one,
construction is moving forward and on the flipside, the clear negative is the timeline on the build that’s been
stretched by six months (5):
“…the El Domo Project is scheduled to be in production by July 1st, 2027, representing a six-month
delay from the previous estimate of early-2027.”
As for the shoulder-shrug info, that was the increase in capex “…to $284 million, an increase of $44 million
compared to the $240 million estimate dated March 31, 2025.” That came as zero surprise, the general cost
inflation and the rise in gold gave us all the indicators you’d ever need. To its credit, SVM (and SRL) gave a
detailed breakdown in the changes in costs and that’s appreciated, but it wasn’t the reason SVM lost a (not
over-heavy) 1.5c last week. That was the timeline thing.
Overall, there was nothing in last week’s note that warrants reviewing this trade. SRL was down on the week,
but not by much and there were plenty others in the same boat. This desk will stick to the plan, hold these
shares and wait for SVM to move to consolidate its ownership. It’s unlikely to take out SRL entirely, but it’s
going to have to pay up for the 15% of El Domo/Curipamba it doesn’t own. If we use the updated capex
number as our benchmark, the SRL carry is worth C$58.4m and that’s almost exactly its current market cap
(C$58.9m). It’s not a simple split because SVM gets the lion’s share of cash flow from the new mine in the
first years, but expand the timeline and that’s a fair price for what promises to be a long-life mine with plenty
of expansion potential.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): There’s still plenty of arb between the 10.5c Friday close and the sum total per share
of the shareholdings at OCI…
10

OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 10.72 0.69 7.40 3.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.73 5.39 2.2
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.53 2.21 0.9
XXIX.v 23.637 0.125 2.95 1.2
AUME.v 42.75 0.085 3.63 1.5
MERG.v 1.025 0.90 0.92 0.4
MERG warrant 0.5125 0.45 0.23 0.1
ZIGY.cse 4.942 0.32 1.58 0.6
KLDC.v 40.040 0.28 11.21 4.5
subtotal 35.53 14.3
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 35.56 14.3
At 248.332 S/O
…but given the volatile nature of the market at present, it’s not that surprises to see this amount of breach.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): We note in passing that at its C$5.56 finish, ARG managed to stay
unchanged to the penny on the week. We also got news of the first substantial share buybacks from the
company for a while, as ARG extinguished 930,007 shares at an average price of C$5.43 in the month of
January 2026. That means ARG has spent C$4.9m on shares in 2026 and that rhythm of repurchase is right
on what it needs to do to use the entirety of its 11.7m share NCIB facility from now to November. ARG now
has 160,905,011 shares outstanding and it would be very cool to see that number close to 150m by the end
of the year.
Aurion Resources (AU.v): There are stocks and companies that march to a different beat, Aurion is one of
those (chart right). The reason to own AU.v has always been its deal-making potential, with its connection to
the success/failure of Rupert Resources (RUP.to), its key landholding position in the Central Lapland
Greenstone Belt (CLGB) and its JV with B2Gold gives it
another deal angle at the optioner’s behest. All those also
mean that AU is less likely to move in the same logical steps
as the average exploreco, the drivers are more corporate
and connected to deal-making than rock-banging at this
stage. Is AU doing something with Agnico (AEM)? Is Lotan
talking with RUP again? Is The Clive about to make a big
move at BTG? All these things are unknown to mere mortals
on the outside, but what we want to see is a stock price that
is getting accumulated over time so the two–month scale
seen above is apt and shows the way AU has ignored the
February slump and just continues to find buyers. This is a
“let’s second guess the M&A market” trade and they’re
notoriously trappy, but the trend is our friend and that’s likely set by people who know a lot more about the
state of negotiations than a retail grunt like me.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): It’s time to applaud LMS for the plan to spin out its Para and Auquis projects in Peru
into Latin Explore, with last week’s update on the transaction telling us this:
Record date: approximately on or before February 10, 2026, should qualify for a fractional share in
Latin Explore.
Expected trading: late February 2026
We’re on course for our “free shares” soon and in
this case, it really feels this way because until very
recently, LMS was getting zero equity value from
Para and Auquis. However recently there’s evidence
the impending Latin Explore spinout is being baked
into the share price, with a stock that’s managed to
hold its gains while others fade and all on improved
volume.
11

The Copper Basket
After five weeks of 2026, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 28.66% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/26 Shares out m Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Faraday Copper FDY.to 2.73 252.88 776.34 3.07 12.5%
2 Los Andes Copper LA.v 9.20 29.56 532.08 18.00 95.7%
3 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 3.67 169.914 531.83 3.13 -14.7%
4 Pecoy Copper PCU.v 1.32 209.49 387.56 1.85 40.2%
5 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.33 177.36 308.61 1.74 30.8%
6 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.74 289.41 225.74 0.78 5.4%
7 Andina Copper ANDC.v 0.56 224.67 211.19 0.94 67.9%
8 Surge Copper SURG.v 0.475 345.41 189.98 0.55 15.8%
9 Element 29 Res ECU.v 1.20 155.51 172.62 1.11 -7.5%
10 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.49 149.57 146.58 0.98 100.0%
11 Fitzroy Min FTZ.v 0.48 278.07 144.60 0.52 8.3%
12 American Eagle AE.v 0.56 172.877 119.29 0.69 23.2%
13 Metal Energy MERG.v 0.64 36.03 32.43 0.90 40.6%
14 Algo Grande Copper ALGR.v 0.53 31.95 24.60 0.77 45.3%
15 Kobrea Exp KBX.cse 0.51 35.622 20.30 0.57 11.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 28.66%
By hook or crook the Copper Basket managed to eke out a win last week, the average up 2.86% despite
the headcount running slightly against us with seven
winners (PCU.v, LA.v, BIG.v, ANDC.v, CGNT.v, MERG.v, 35% The Copper Basket 2026, weekly evolution
KBX.cn) versus eight losers (FDY.to, ALDE.v, HCH.v, 30%
ECU.v, SURG.v, FTZ.v, AE.v, ALGR.v). It was also a week
25%
of big swings, with big winners in Copper Giant (CGNT.v
20%
up 60.9%), Andina Copper (ANDC.v up 17.5%) and
15%
Hercules Metals (BIG.v up 11.4%) and big losers in Algo
10%
Grande (ALFR.v down 19.0%), Fitzroy Minerals (FTZ.v
5%
down 11.9%), Element 29 (ECU.v down 11.2%) and
American Eagle (AE.v down 10.4%) as some stocks 0%
managed to attract market attention and others were Jan1st Jan4th 11th 18th 25th feb1st 8th
source: IKN calcs
caught by sellers at the wrong time. It’s also worth
noting that without that single big win in Copper Giant, the basket average would have registered a small
drop on the week.
Next to the spike and drop of the week before last
(included on this visual, right), the last seven days
of action in copper doesn’t seem particularly rough
but in fact, the trough-to-peak-to-trough of the
HGH26 (March’26) Comex contract is basically 10%,
and those are big moves for such an important
industrial commodity. In the same way as the gold
market I feared the worst late week and was
pleasantly surprised to see copper rebound well on
Friday, the U$5.90/lb finish helped prop the equity
performance seen in the table above.
However, we’re still far from a return to the stable
and bullish market of 4q25 and as you’re about to
see, house mancrush Andy Home now agrees with this desks view that copper is being pushed by the
speculative bulls in the pure financial realm but pulled back by the real world demand constraints showing at
the U$6.00/lb line. His op-ed, “Bullish, not breathless: analysts temper base-metals calls” (6) has a self-
12

explanatory header and covers several metals along the way, but this part resonated in particular with this
desk:
The collective view seems to be that January's super-charged price performance will inevitably
generate a reaction in the form of reduced physical buying in what are still industry-rooted markets.
That caution is even more apparent when it comes to 2027.
Only lead is expected to register any price gain to the tune of a modest 3% relative to this year.
Aluminium, copper and nickel prices are expected to be flat year-on-year, while tin and zinc prices are
forecast to decline by 4% from 2026 levels.
Speculators may well disagree and January has shown the outsize impact of investment flows on
price in what are finite physical markets.
But if speculators push metal prices too high too fast, global manufacturers will react by halting
buying, reducing the amount of metal used or even developing totally new material inputs.
Given the current hype around the metals complex, these poll forecasts point to growing tension
between what investors think metals are worth and their value to those that actually use them to
make things.
That’s what we’ve been saying for a while, so it’s good to hear confirmation from someone as wise about
industrial metals as Mr. Home. Now for the regular world copper inventories update, data from Cochilco.
 We were expecting another all-time record and we got one, with total copper inventory for the
three official copper systems up 32,404 metric tonned (mt) to close the week at grand total of
964,186mt and, for the third week running, all three futures shops added tonnage.
 The biggest add was at Shanghai SHFE, up 15,907mt to close Friday at 248,911mt. We have a
week and a half before China closes down for its new year fun, after that we should see
inventories in Asia reach their annual peak. As things stand, we’re set to go over 300kmt again
fairly easily.
 LME inventories added 8,600mt last week, with the total now at 183,275mt. It gets more difficult
to ignore the world buold-up in copper inventory when it happens in front of the noses of the
price discovery pit.
 Comex saw another add and another all-time record, this week’s 7,897mt bringing total copper
under its roofs to 532,000mt. The day that is released to the market will be the day bulls get
reminded about the way end-user demand really matters
The dedicated SHFE chart is now tracking us into the Lunar New Year period, a week and a half away. That’s
followed by a (roughly) two week period when the inventory remains unchanged, then come the weeks that
see stocks pile up as shippers land their wares and the factories wait a while before picking it up and using it.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
However and as this next chart (right) illustrates more
SHFE copper inventory after six weeks of calendar year
clearly, 2026 is the highest pre-Holiday baseline we’ve
had for copper stocks in the last ten years and there’s
a real chance we see 400kmt in SHFE storage before
the seasonal drawdown begins.
Add that to the Comex stocks and add a growing LME
number in there and we’re set for a record high that
may now be beaten for years. Tell that to the “tight
595271 727241
452602 88586
95304
905622
12568
718481
119842
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
source: SHFE

copper” narrators. Now for notes on one or three of our basket component stocks:
Copper Giant (CGNT.v): The massive run in CGNT shares last week came on the back of this NR (7),
announcing a new discovery zone at Mocoa, “La Estrella”. The holes per se weren’t that great, but the long
hits of mineralization were used to promote effectively and the notable presence of Frank Giustra pushing the
story on media channels, as well as the paid promo crew CGNT uses, got the hype ma chine running at
exactly the right time.
This desk has never denied the presence of a large mineralized area at Mocoa and it’s highly likely that any
new rounds of drilling at these new targets will improve on the so-o grades. The issue has been and will
always be the social acceptance and permitting of this project, as both Clive Johnson and I both know there
will never be a mine built here.
Algo Grande Copper (ALGR.v): When checking out the Feb 5th NR from ALGR (8) and its headline of
“three new skarn horizons” discovered at its Cerro Grande project, I wondered whether style would win out
over substance here as well as at CGNT. But it was not to be and the 19% drop in the stock price was a fair
reflection of a NR that must have been talked up by connections beforehand. Its ho-hum results…
41.59 metres of cumulative mineralized skarn intersected, including:
 14.79 @ 1.4% Cu, 0.5 g/t Au, 20 g/t Ag
 9.55 m @ 1.4% Cu, 0.4 g/t Au, 41.8 g/t Ag
 1.85 m @ 4.1% Cu, 11 g/t Au, 150 g/t Ag
…come from drilling through a 170m section and that means those “horizons” will have plenty of barren rock
that turns into prohibitive strip rate when it’s time to put together a PEA.
Andina Copper (ANDC.v): The world had been waiting with bated breath for the first assays out of its
Cobrasco project in South Colombia and on February 5th, it got them (9)
Andina Copper Intersects 352 m @ 0.68% Cu, 112 ppm Mo from 144 m, incl. 118 m @
1.17% Cu, 193 ppm Mo from 246 m
That, unlike the offerings from ALGR or CGNT (above), is a stonking hole that confirms the potential that
Cobrasco had shown way back when the first exploratory holes went into it. The ANDC team has already
done better than I expected by getting access and enough local support to drill and test Cobrasco, that
doesn’t mean the social and political risk no longer exists (quite the contrary, this is a very high risk zone of
the continent) and to its credit, the drill assay numbers will stand as justification for their work. It’s still not a
company I’d back with any confidence, but there’s no knocking success and has come a long way since we
first featured it on these pages, the "minnow copper" representative of the 2025 Copper Basket list, when still
called Pampa Metals and trading on the CSE. Since then it's folded Rugby Metals into its structure, moved to
the TSXV and most importantly, ridden the wave of copper speculation very successfully and turned a 17.5c
share price into this weekend's 94c (or if you prefer, its old C$14.55m market cap as at December 31st 2024
to this weekend's C$211.19m...that's a lot of equity). The plan was always to wow the world with a hole into
Conbrasco, I was cynical about its chances and was plain wrong. Good for the team, bad for me, a reminder
to this audience of the mistakes I often make. Still going to avoid exposure to Colombia, though.
Kobrea Exploration Corp (KBX.cn): I continue to watch KBX very closely, what with it practically first-
footing a very large and prospective region of the Andean Cordillera and now it has the drills turning on its
first target. Its trading in 2025 and 2025 suggests it’s a bit of a leaky boat, so with core now coming to
surface it will be worth considering any unusual trade activity.
The Producer Basket
After five weeks of 2026, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 12.46% to level stakes:
14

company ticker price 1/1/26 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 99.85 1108 127.77 115.32 15.5%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 169.53 502.579 98.81 196.60 16.0%
3 Barrick B 43.55 1705.994 77.04 45.16 3.7%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 117.52 454.02 61.74 135.98 15.7%
5 Lundin Gold LUG.to 114.02 241.433 18.48 104.85 -8.0%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 38.58 420.68 17.12 40.70 5.5%
7 IAMGOLD IAG 16.49 594 11.36 19.12 15.9%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 35.92 201.275 7.85 39.02 8.6%
9 B2Gold Corp BTG 4.51 1330.134 6.73 5.06 12.2%
10 Americas G & S USAS 5.11 318.26 2.27 7.13 39.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of LUG (in CAD$) Port. avg 12.46%
Last week could have been a lot worse than this for the precious metals producers, but the late-week rally in
gold and metals saw them react first and fastest, dragging most stocks into a week-over-week win. Seven of
our ten stocks were winners (NEM, AEM, WPM, LUG.to, AGI, IAG, BTG) and three were losers (B, EGO,
USAS), with the biggest moves recorded by Alamos (AGI up 10.3%) to the upside and Eldorado (EGO down
9.1%) to the downside. The fact we had two of the week’s losers on newsflow in our stack of ten (B and
EGO, see below) means our list’s average fell slightly behind that of the GDX benchmark last week, but that’s
okay because it’s still early days.
The 2026 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and The 2026 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. Between
comparative to GDX control GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
30% 4%
26%
3%
22% ikn
gdx control 2%
18%
1%
14%
0%
10%
-1%
6%
source: IKN calcs -2%
2%
source: IKN calcs
-2% -3%
Jan1st Jan4th 11th 18th 25th feb1st 8th
Jan1st Jan4th 11th 18th 25th feb1st 8th
Alamos Gold (AGI): The week’s big winner rose on the back of this NR (10) that announced the company’s
plans for the Island Gold and Magino mines, located next to each other in Central Ontario. AGI bought
Magino for pennies on the dollar at the exact right time after Argonaut had finished making a pig’s ear of its
build-out and since then has been working on a plan to combine the two properties. That’s now come to life
in what they now call “Island Gold District” (IGD) and the plan involves spending around U$550m more than
was previously budgeted for sustaining capital and by 2028, ending with a mine running at an average of
534,000 oz for the next ten years, with a total mine life of
19 years (and that mine life will almost certainly extend once
AGI goes about the search for deep high grade
mineralization below the current Magino pit, always widely
assumed to exist in the same way as at Island next door).
Once you add in the AISC estimate of U$1.025/oz, you're
left with a mine that will print cash at current gold prices,
with a relatively low capex and time hurdle and the size that
matters to every mining company out there, as half million
plus appeals to even the NEMs and Bs of this world.
We expected the Island/Magino combo to be good, but this
plan hits it out the park and AGI deserved every point of its
10% run last week. What’s more, the run continued into Monday and to demonstrate the new-found
momentum, here’s the five-day chart vs GDX updated to include today Monday’s action. AGI may have got
lucky with the timing, but IGD is exactly what the market wants from its Tier 2 producers in 2026.
15

Barrick (B): We knew it would be the biggest news of the week and when it came (11), B’s 4q25 and YE
earnings report was a mixed bunch that ultimately dragged on the share price, but had enough for the bulls
and those looking for “Thornton’s Revenge on Bristow” to continue.
Production of 871k oz gold was at the low end of expectations, though overall sales of 960k oz Au (chart
right) managed to paper over some of the cracks
Barrick: Gold sales (per qtr)
16
459
1001 7201 2401
019 659 769 569 157 077 738 069
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500 400
300
200
100
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 52q4
source: company filings
uA
zO
s000
Also, 2026 guidance at 2.9m to 3.25m oz gold was lacklustre. B boasted of "record quarterly cash flow" and
net profits of course, though if any mining company doesn't manage to hit record dollar figures in this price
backdrop for gold there is something seriously wrong. A more meaningful positive is the new dividend policy,
which is a deliberately loose frame which "aims for", rather than pledges or guarantees, but the decision to
earmark 50% of attributable free cash flow should be applauded by its backbone of insto holders. They're
also moving forward with the plans to split into two, with "Barrick North America" now in the preparatory
spinout stage.
However, the one item that came up more than any other on media and trade reports of the earnings is its
changing attitude toward Bristow's erstwhile jewel in the crown, the Reko Diq project and here's an example
of the coverage (12):
Barrick reviews Reko Diq project amid Balochistan security concerns
Feb 5 (Reuters) - Barrick Mining's (ABX.TO) boa rd is reviewing all aspects of a gold and copper
project in Pakistan's Balochistan region, including capital allocation, due to security concerns, CEO
Mark Hill said during a post-earnings call.
Barrick said the decision has been taken after the recent escalation of security risks and a rise in
security incidents in the province.
Pakistani soldiers were hunting down separatist militants earlier this week who stormed schools,
banks and security installations, killing nearly 50 people, in coordinated attacks across southwestern
Balochistan province.
The miner added the review of the Reko Diq project's security arrangements, development timetable
and capital budget would begin immediately, with an update once the process is completed.
The gold and copper project is owned 50% by Barrick, 25% by three federal state-owned enterprises
and 25% by the Government of Balochistan.
That moment when “security concerns” sounds like a rather neat and convenient excuse for backing out of
the grand plan to turn Barrick into a gold/copper miner (or perhaps copper/gold, considering what the metals
mix would look like once Nevada and Pueblo Viejo are spun out) and a glimpse of how toxic it must have
been in the last couple of years of Bristow’s tenure.
Overall, I though B got a bad deal from the market and its slightly downbeat reaction. The spinout is a good
idea that will create value (by allowing Newmont to buy what it dearly desires without all that African and
Pakistani hair) and the new dividend policy will create fans. Guidance for 2026 was the only true negative,
but with gold doing what it’s doing that will soon be forgotten when B starts reporting its 2026 profit margins.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): The biggest loser on the week due to this news (13):
Eldorado and Foran Combine to Create a Leading Gold and Copper Producer
It’s a nearly-all-paper deal (1c in cash per share), with EGO paying 0.1128 shares for each share of Foran,
“…implying an equity value for Foran of approximately C$3.8 billion. Upon completion of the Transaction,

existing Eldorado and Foran shareholders will own approximately 76% and 24% of the combined company,
respectively.” The dump came as they tend to do in all-share deals, but as this EGO vs GDX chart shows it’s
more a case of the deal absorbing the out-sized run in EGO in 2026 to date. Under the circumstances and
considering Foran has also run well in recent weeks, the price doesn’t look excessive. We can expect EGO to
get back to out-performing the market as long as its Skouries commissioning and ramp process goes
smoothly.
Americas Gold & Silver (USAS) (USA.to): USAS has
come back to it’s a little field in the last couple of weeks and
on hindsight, the company was indeed overbought after
announcing its quarter production at the very height of the
speculative mania. Having the word “silver” in the corporate
title make a difference too. But as the comparative chart
here shows (versus GDXJ, slightly fairer comp), it’s still a
long way ahead of the pack and that’s a good thing.
The TinyCaps List
After five weeks of 2026, the TinyCaps show a gain of 14.64% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/26 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Auriginal Min AUME.v 0.07 264.51 22.48 0.085 21.4%
Canex Metals CANX.v 0.215 166.95 49.25 0.295 37.2%
Sranan Gold SRAN.cn 0.30 60.42 16.31 0.27 -10.0%
Enduro Metals ENDR.v 0.155 76.04 14.83 0.195 25.8%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.21 133.01 35.91 0.27 28.6%
Precore Gold PRCG.cn 0.26 32.003 6.40 0.20 -23.1%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.14 115.7 17.93 0.155 10.7%
Silver Wolf SWLF.v 0.135 62.18 11.81 0.19 40.7%
Trifecta Gold TG.v 0.195 47.7 11.93 0.25 28.2%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.19 171.677 28.33 0.165 -13.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 14.64%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In one cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed
sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2026. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Considering the highly unfavourable headcount of seven
TinyCaps, 2026 weekly tracker
25%
losers (CANX.v, SRAN,cn, ENDR.v, PRCG.cn, RDU.v,
SWLF.v, VAU.v3), two unchanged stocks (AUME.v, TG.v) 20%
and just one winner (LMS.v) from the ten on the week, the
15%
2.5% docked from the basket average seems quite light. In
10%
fact most drops were minor in size and the biggest move
was the -7.3% lost by Silver Wolf, a mere trifle in the world 5%
17
0%
Jan1st Jan4th 11th 18th 25th feb1st 8th
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

of the tinycap. In other words, the action was elsewhere and the market was more concerned about getting
the big calls right (see Producer Basket, gold price, etc) than scribbling in these margins. That’s fair enough,
but it also means any hike in volume could see waterfall selling in the days to come.
Canex Metals (CANX.v): The hostile takeover of Gold Basin (GXX) is now moving into officialdom, with last
week the company announcing it had control of nearly 52% of votes and was calling the required AGM to get
the board changes done (14). GXX is trying to delay the inevitable, so CANX is now going via the courts next
week to force the AGM. In trading, the stock held up well to the sector headwinds and that bodes well for the
eventual success of the takeover.
Sranan Gold (SRAN.cn): Not a great week for our replacement stock, with two NRs that remind us of the
reality of the tinycap market. First on Tuesday SRAN ok-I-suppose drill assays (15) from its main Tapanahony
project in Surname, specifically the “Randy’s Pit” target that showed good grades under the dug open pit, but
skinny widths. The best of the three holes was an intercept “…of 10.88 g/t Au over 1 m within 10 m grading
1.36 g/t Au” from the 25RADD-018 hole, that high grade found 37m downhole.
Then on Wednesday (16) SRAN reminded the world it was still under Management Cease Trade Order
(MTCO) due to its late filing of YE financials that were due at the end of last month. The company expects to
file and get up to date by the end of this month of February, but it’s the type of unprofessional and lax thing
that happens at this end of the market, one that is bad in itself and suggests laxity at the wider corporate
level. Sadly, it’s par for the course at these market caps and tends to be worse in CSE-listed companies (the
only stock exchange in the world capable of giving the TSXv a good name).
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Peru: The winner is apathy
“Sometime they'll give a war and nobody will come”
The People Yes, Carl Sandberg, 1936
We're just two months (and a couple of days) from the Peru presidential and congressional elections (round
one April 12th) and the latest voter intention poll, published by Datum for Peru's newspaper of record El
Comercio this weekend (17), shows above all the public's apathy and disdain for its political class. The
headline writers will want you to focus on the names at the top of poll...
 Rafael López Aliaga: 11.9%
 Keiko Fujimori: 9.2%
 Carlos Álvarez: 5.8%
 Alfonso López Chau: 3.8%
 César Acuña: 3.8%
 Mario Vizcarra: 3.6%
…and the increasing chances we’ll see a run-off between Porky and Keiko, but what really matters is at the
bottom, as 42.5% of voters are either not going to vote or are undecided. Not to mention the other 20-odd
candidates that don't make it to 3% (most well under 1%) or the fact that only three political parties are
expected to receive the minimum 5% of votes required to allow them seats in the upcoming Congress. The
growing feeling that democracy in Peru is under real threat is difficult to shake off, this election and what
happens as a result are accidents waiting to happen.
Colombia is increasingly a Cepeda versus de la Espriella election
The latest poll on the crunch Colombia election came last week from AtlasIntel (18) and while there’s plenty
more information in the results document, we’ll cut to the bit that matters and the voter intention for next
President:
 Abelardo de la Espriella 32.1%
18

 Iván Cepeda 31.4%
 Sergio Fajardo 7.6%
 Paloma Valencia 3.8%
 Claudia López 3.7%
The frontrunners are set fair. Four weeks ago the same pollster had Abelardo de la Espriella on 28%, Iván
Cepeda on 26.5% and Sergio Fajardo on 9.4% (see IKN868) so if the numbers are to be believed, we’re
seeing a voting public that’s drifting away from the “normal right” offered by Sergio Fajardo focusing its
efforts on the front two and making this a straight fight between the political right and left flanks, as Cepeda
is a lefty cut from the same cloth as current President Petro, while de la Espriella is as right wing as they
come, is fond of headline-making polemic statements and is bound to be compared to Argentina’s Milei as the
election plays out. AtlasIntel also asked those polled about the near-inevitable second round run-off and
here’s how it looks if the most likely pairing makes it through:
 Abelardo de la Espriella 36.8%
 Iván Cepeda 34.6%
That’s close, which suggests this election will come down to which candidate is able to move to the political
centre most effectively during the run-off period and convince the centrists in the country (which is becoming
a standard pattern in LatAm politics). Also notably, according to the poll any other candidate loses in the
second round against the current government candidate Iván Cepeda, a sidenote that de la Espriella will
surely try to use to his advantage and positions as “the only hope against the commies”, etc.
Mexico: More on the ten kidnapped workers
Last week’s edition covered the story that broke on January 28th regarding the ten workers kidnapped from
the Vizsla Silver Panuco project, Sinaloa, Northwest Mexico and included these worss toward the end:
“The VZLA share price sunk hard on the news last week…it lost around 12% compared to the median.
Frankly, I think that should be a lot more. This incident represents an existential risk to the Panuco
project…”
This week has brought a new layer of bad news and the story is big enough to have been picked up by
English language mainstream so like CBC editorial line or not, here are the top paragraphs of one of their
reports on the unfolding mess (19):
Mexican authorities said Friday that federal forces had found what appeared to be the body of one of 10
employees of a Canadian mining company who were kidnapped three weeks ago from a city in the Mexican state
of Sinaloa.
The attorney general's office issued a statement Friday evening saying that "bodies and human remains" were
found during the ongoing search for the abducted employees of Vizsla Silver Corp.
The statement said that one of the bodies "shares characteristics similar to one of the individuals reported
missing" and that work was underway to confirm the identity. It did not say how many other bodies had been
found.
This Sunday, the identification was confirmed. Also on Monday morning, news is out (20) that two other
bodies at the site have been confirmed as two of the kidnapped employees. It’s all rather grim, the human
aspect of this story is the most important and I don’t want to underplay it at all. However, the job here is to
consider the cold, hard world of capitalism so please forgive as we return to thoughts of the VZLA share
price, as its underperformance continued last week with a notable drop compared to benchmarks such as
GDXJ and SIL. That started on Wednesday (potentially word was getting out about the bodies they’d found)
and accelerated into the official news release of the new and gruesome discovery:
19

Also unsurprisingly, there are growing voices of complaint against the company and the way it has handled
itself in what is a well-known hot zone for violence and confrontation with narco gangs. This BNAmericas
report (21) is extensive and is well worth a close read, here you get one of the intro paragraphs and then a
more extensive quote from further down the report:
The disappearance of ten workers linked to the Pánuco project of Vizsla Silver on January 23 in
Sinaloa has once again brought to the forefront the security risks facing mining in Mexico and their
impact on investment and operations in the sector.
And…
For Eduardo Ordóñez, a political risk and security specialist consulted by BNamericas, the case
reveals structural flaws in risk management and in the security environment in which mining
companies operate in some regions of the country.
The analyst explained that the investigation file was opened as a “disappearance committed by
private individuals” and not as kidnapping, a classification that, from a legal standpoint, avoids
formally recognizing a possible ransom demand and leaves multiple hypotheses open regarding the
motives of organized crime.
The crime of disappearance committed by private individuals is defined in Article 34 of the General
Law on Enforced Disappearance, the specialist specified.
Ordóñez also warned about the company's implicit responsibility, recalling that in April 2025 Vizsla
Silver suspended operations for about a month in Pánuco due to security issues, and later
announced their resumption after assuring that the situation had improved.
The kidnapping of the ten workers suggests, according to the expert, that these risks were not
resolved at their root, which exposes the company to a situation of high legal and reputational
vulnerability. “The bad thing is that it will not set a legal precedent, but will be just one more
kidnapping, even though the company is 100% responsible,” he said.
The consultant, who is also a lawyer, recalled that in Mexico companies or legal entities are liable for
damages to employees if the crime is committed in their name, for their benefit, or due to a lack of
organizational control, in accordance with the National Code of Criminal Procedure (CNPP).
This includes serious accidents due to negligence, omission of safety measures, negligent homicide
or bodily injury, with penalties that may include fines, closure, dissolution and, in serious cases,
disqualification, added Ordóñez.
The episode comes at a sensitive time for Vizsla Silver. Days before the incident, the company had
reiterated its intention to start the Pánuco project in the second half of this year, once the necessary
permits are obtained, with the goal of beginning production in 2027.
The project is considered strategic due to its scale and the silver and gold resources it concentrates
in southern Sinaloa.
Beyond the immediate impact on Vizsla, the case caused shock in the Mexican mining industry by
reinforcing the perception that operating in certain regions of the country entails direct risks to the
safety of personnel, as well as higher costs and an environment of uncertainty for investment.
That’s insightful and starts to explain why VZLA has gone omerta on the world (that, plus and the fear these
gang instill at all levels of Mexican society which means their tactics will work again and again). Now for some
extra thoughts from his desk and I skirted round the issue last week, but the elephant in the room must be
addressed and while hope still remains and I fervently wish to be wrong, history shows that when narcos
kidnap people and they remain undetected for three weeks, then one [EDIT; three] turns up dead, they are
very likely all deceased and if so, things now go from bad to worse for VZLA. Regarding the company and the
project, with a large slug of debt now on board and a timeline contingent on prompt permitting, this is not an
issue that can be swept under the table any longer as it now represents an existential risk to the company (or
20

at least its equity). However, the chilling effects of this terrible episode will now likely be felt by all mining
companies working in Mexico, particularly juniors that want to take the same development track as VZLA at
Pánuco. I’d readily agree that the specific zone in the hills of Sinaloa outside Mazatlan is one of the riskiest in
the entire country and there are plenty of other places in Mexico that have far more benign social and
political risk backdrops, but that won’t stop the doubts reaching anyone considering backing a project and be
clear, that very much includes banking entities and financiers writing cheques at project development stage,
don’t think for a moment this is only about the open stock market price.
Bottom line: This is an unholy mess and while VZLA has already dropped 33% (U$6.86 to U$4.60) since the
news was first announced, we must sadly now assume the worst for the ten hostages and that means the
selling isn’t going to stop for a while yet. What’s more, we can at the very least expect the mining world to
take a second and third look at any project in the country and ask far more pointed questions regarding their
risk status, the chilling effect will not be confined to one particularly dangerous corner of a traditional narco
territory.
UPDATE Monday: Things are going from bad to worse for VZLA, as the extract from this report (22) tells us
the company was paying protection money to at least one of the narco gangs. There’s a reason that’s strictly
prohibited for Canadian companies and VZLA decided to find out the hard way, here’s a translation of part of
the script:
Based on documents obtained from the ongoing investigations by the Attorney General's Office into the
disappearance of ten miners (the official figure acknowledged by authorities, although unofficial reports suggest
14), the Canadian company had been paying 200,000 pesos monthly to a criminal group for some time in
exchange for permission to operate, process, and transport the material in the area.
As a result of the war that began in September 2024 between La Chapiza and La Mayiza, two factions of the
Sinaloa Cartel fighting for territorial control (particularly in Culiacán, Elota, and Concordia), organized crime
decided to increase the extortion fee to obtain more resources and finance the war, the researcher explained.
They then demanded 50 percent of the value of the metals produced in the Vizsla mine from the administration,
María Idalia said.
On the TV program of journalist Carmen Aristegui, the researcher specified that the mining company refused to
pay that amount and instead proposed increasing the extortion fee to 250,000 pesos. This refusal triggered the
kidnapping of the miners, as the criminals demanded 10 million pesos for the return of each worker, an amount
that apparently was not paid.
Racketeers bleed you and, as mentioned last week in IKN871, these people would have known that VZLA had
just received $300m in funding. The refusal to pay the new fee was the trigger for the narcos to “teach them
a lesson” and here we are today. This is precisely the risk that made us avoid VZLA as an investment
alternative and while the stock price means that even after the last couple of weeks I missed out on a big
winner, zero regrets on this one.
Market Watching
Deferred: I’ll do something eventually.
Conclusion
IKN872 is done, we end with bullet points:
 My Monday has been weighed down with the ongoing newsflow out of Concordia Sinaloa and the
increasingly tragic events there. Vizsla decided to do a deal with the devil, now they will pay heavily for
their mistake
 Just buy Rio2 (RIO.to), own shares, hold them indefinitely, ride the price higher. If gold collapses you
sell, if Rio2 fails to deliver on its operational plans you sell, in all other circumstances this company
stock is going a lot higher.
 I’m comfortable with the portfolio as stands, the only potential adjustment from here is adding more
Tiernan Gold. We’re bound to hear more about that stock and project soon, PDAC is less than a month
away now.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
21

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-weekly-february-6-2026
(2) https://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html
(3) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2026/minera-alamos-retains-velocity-trade-capital-for-market-making-services/
(4) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2026/minera-alamos-completes-pan-operating-complex-integration-ahead-of-schedule/
(5) https://silvercorpmetals.com/silvercorp-announces-project-update-for-el-domo/
(6) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/bullish-not-breathless-analysts-temper-base-metals-calls-2026-02-03/
(7) https://coppergiant.co/copper-giant-delivers-grades-above-the-2026-resource-model-and-confirms-porphyry-style-mineralization-at-
the-la-estrella-target/
(8) https://algo-grande.com/news/algo-grande-discovers-three-new-skarn-horizons-reports-36.00-metres-above-1.0-copper-including-
14.79-metres-of-1.4-copper-and-identifies-evidence-for-porphyry-potential-at-depth
(9) https://andinacopper.com/news/news-2026/andina-copper-intersects-352-m--068-cu-112-ppm-mo-from-12026-02-05-062003
(10) https://www.alamosgold.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Alamos-Gold-Announces-Island-Gold-District-Expansion-to-
20000-TPD-Creating-One-of-Canadas-Largest-and-Lowest-Cost-Gold-Mines-with-Attractive-Economics-including-69-After-Tax-IRR-and-
12-2-Billion-NPV-at-4500oz-Gold/default.aspx
(11) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2026/q4-2025-results/default.aspx
(12) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/barrick-reviews-reko-diq-project-amid-balochistan-security-concerns-2026-02-05/
(13) https://www.eldoradogold.com/investors/news-releases/eldorado-and-foran-combine-create-leading-gold-and-copper-producer
(14) https://canexmetals.ca/news/canex-metals-acquires-51.93-of-gold-basin-and-seeks-a-court-appointed-annual-general-meeting-of-
gold-basin-shareholders/
(15) https://sranangold.com/news/sranan-gold-continues-to-intercept-high-grade-gold-at-tapanahony-suriname-as-2026-drilling-program-
commences/
(16) https://sranangold.com/news/sranan-updates-status-on-late-filing-of-financial-statements/
(17) https://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2026-encuesta-datum-internacional-febrero-veinticuatro-candidatos-tienen-
menos-de-1-de-intencion-de-voto-12-de-abril-tlcnota-noticia/
(18) https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2026/02/07/abelardo-de-la-espriella-e-ivan-cepeda-son-los-favoritos-en-las-proximas-elecciones-
presidenciales-segun-la-encuesta-de-atlasintel/
(19) https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/mexico-canada-mining-9.7078695
(20) https://www.elnorte.com/identifican-tres-cuerpos-de-mineros-secuestrados-en-sinaloa/ar3149383?v=6
(21) https://www.bnamericas.com/en/analysis/disappearance-of-vizsla-workers-exposes-mining-insecurity-in-mexico
(22) https://www.facebook.com/61569175443297/posts/122163767726639181/?mibextid=wwXIfr&rdid=ClBfDDfv4xD2qcRH
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2025
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
22

AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
Minera Alamos MAI.v Aug'25 C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% lightened overweight position
Surge Copper SURG.v Sep'25 $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.215 104.8% took profits, good result
Provenance Gold PAU.cse Oct'25 C$0.15 27-Aug-25 C$0.265 76.7% took profits, good result
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
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B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
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McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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