IKN #865Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 865, week of December 21st 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, An abridged trading week, The mining sector Santa Rally.
Fundamental Analysis: Tiernan Gold: Heads up on a new Chilean gold play.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, American Eagle Gold Corp (AE.v), Electrum Discovery (ELY.v), Arizona Metals
Corp (AMC.to), Valkea Resources (OZ.v), Aurion Resources (AU.v), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to), Orecap Inv
(OCI.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Salazar Resources (SRL.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Hercules Metals (BIG.v), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) and Faraday Copper
(FDY.to), Atex Resources (ATX.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, B2Gold (BTG).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kodiak Copper (KDK.v).
Regional Politics: Bolivia deteriorates, Ecuador: The Ministry of Revolving Doors, Chile: Kast and mining,
Argentina fast-tracks the Glacier Law amendment, Colombia: The 2026 election field and the recent Invamer
opinion poll.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 With gold breaking U$4,400/oz this morning, today’s intro reflects on the way fundamental research on
mining companies large and small is only useful to a certain point in today’s market.
 The main fundies note isn’t particularly long or detailed, it’s not a stock reco either. Instead, it’s a
heads-up on what promises to be one of the hotter (quasi) IPOs in the gold space in the near future.
Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v) isn’t open for trading yet, but it will be soon and when it starts the guys at
Hochschild will finally see some return for a large amount money they spent unwisely over a decade
ago. Every dog has its day.
 Regional Politics touches on several regional issues this week, with too much on the Colombia election
this early in the process and a Bolivia that’s now “welcoming” its new right wing policy moves, among
other matters.
 The Stocks to Follow notes on Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and Orecap Inv (OCI.v) are the ones worth
reading, the others are the usual fluff.
An abridged trading week
First and foremost, I’d like to take a line and wish this esteemed audience, as well as all their loved ones, a
very merry Christmas. May the peace of the Lord be with you over the festive season. With the important
stuff done, here’s a need-to-know on our upcoming shortened trading week:
 In The USA, markets close Wednesday December 24th at 1pm, are closed Christmas Day, then re-open
on Friday December 26th for a normal trading day.
 In Canada, markets also close Wednesday December 24th at 1pm and are closed Christmas Day, but
the Boxing Day holiday means they are also closed on Friday December 26th. In other words, if you
haven’t done your TSX/V trade by lunchtime on Wednesday, you’ll have to wait until Monday 29th.
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So now you know. Staying with the Canadian market, the hard deadline for Tax Loss Sales trades is Tuesday
December 30th though for practical purposes this week is the last true window for any trade of size. In other
words, I’m waiting until next week to deploy the last dregs of my available treasury on the planned TLS
trades in Valkea Resources (OZ.v) and Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to). Finally, a reminder that next week’s IKN
Weekly, IKN866, will be a “Bare Bones Only” holiday edition that marks the numbers and may have a few
comments or what-have-you, but not much else. That will arrive on our new default publication date, Monday
evening Americas time, but between now and them I hope you get to spend the week with family/friends and
have a great time.
The mining sector Santa Rally
The intro note in IKN862 dated November 30th “Santa Claus is coming to town” was a prelude to the good
times we expected from our sector of focus as 2025 drew to a close, we called a Santa Rally incoming and
specific TLS trades pending, advised you to be fully
long this month as all systems continue to be go. So
with three weeks on the clock and just a handful of
active trading days left here right is a check on how
December has treated us:
Answer: Not bad. Rounding off the numbers, at the
time of writing IKN862 gold was at U$4,150/oz, it
started the month with a pleasant pop and then
fiddled around the U$4,200/oz line for the first few
days, before kicking on and making U$4,300/oz its
line in the sand (the Comex continuous gold
contract closed at U$4,339.50/oz on Friday, just for
the record). Meanwhile the PM stocks have offered
the type of leverage you’d want from them compared to bullion, in itself a signal of a healthy market. That
said, we’ve been rather spoiled by the gains returned in mining stocks in 2025 so seeing +8.2% on GDXJ or
+5.9% on GDX in three weeks’ worth of trading isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. Therefore context is
required:
The 2025 YTD chart of the same three squiggly lines gives us exactly that. Firstly, December has been decent
enough, but it becomes good when you consider it as a continuation of the action we’ve seen basically all
year (and newsflash; the market doesn’t close for business once December 2025 is done). Secondly, +175%
and +159% for an ETF stock basket are monstrously good results, no matter how you cut or dice them.
However, thirdly and for my money most interesting is the blue ink zone; while gold hasn’t quite reached the
ATH highs set during the mid-October hype run, both GDX and GDXJ have fully recovered from their dips and
are back to setting records. Back when gold went into hard drop mode, this publication took an altogether
more sanguine stance compared to the headless chicken squawking on social media at the time and while
metals prices led media headlines, we cared more about the way mining stocks were suddenly offering
tremendous value. At the bottom of that trough in IKN858 dated November 2nd, our intro rant went with the
title “That’s not a knife” to remind readers of what a real bear market for gold looks like, because when gold
dipped under U$4,000/oz there was way too much heat form the Chicken Little brigade, far too little light. We
took the pulse of gold this way…
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“What we saw was a market willing to scalp late-comers, not one ready to punish long-term holders
or people with the right mindset about gold.”
…and with hindsight, that turned out to be the right attitude. Gold’s recovery and move back over
U$4,300/oz has been followed by nerds like us closely, but there’s an enormous difference in the noise, or
lack of, coming from the world of the Normies and mainstream media. That’s a good thing of course, but
what really matters to a publication on junior mining companies was this, the real message to take away from
IKN858:
“Gold’s a healthy, bullish market and demand shows no signs of slacking, which in turn means the
margins it offers to the standard Tier 1 or Tier 2 public gold mining company running an AISC of
around U$1,500/oz are astounding. Phrases such as “licence to print money” are bandied around in
the modern world without much thought but here today, it’s literally and figuratively true. Or if you
prefer, consider that even lower quality gold producers that we normally bracket as “high cash cost”
are making upwards of U$1,500/oz at today’s prices.”
There’s a reason GDXJ is up 34% since the lows of early November, in the same period gold clawed back its
10% loss. It’s not just coincidence or luck, it’s the fundamental strength driving this mining market and I
don’t mind admitting that when my analyst hat is on, I’m having trouble keeping up with what the cash
generation potential of our sector implies to share prices. In this game, it pays to err to the side of caution
and build conservatism into one’s economic models (and therefore price targets), but in 2025 that means I’ve
been playing permanent catch-up behind the stocks in question:
 It wasn’t so long ago I remember humming and hahing over whether to use U$3,500/oz in the
economic model for West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v) and deciding it was a bit too rich, opting eventually
for U$3,300/oz. That was IKN844, just five months ago.
 Or the balanced and thoughtful decision to use U$3,500/oz gold when valuing Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) in
IKN855, that was two months (and a week) ago.
Here were are with spot gold trading over a thousand dollars an ounce higher than my price assumption for
WRLG this summer, a time when I liked what I saw enough to buy stock. It’s amazing. Those are just two
examples, there are dozens of others and on surveying the panorama of gold stocks, few indeed have spot
gold baked into their equity. The next set of quarterly production numbers will start to flow in a couple of
weeks’ time, we saw a big pop in mining stocks once Q3 closed and the market started to do some math, it’s
now three months on and gold is trading at perhaps U$500/oz spot over the Q3 average received price. I
repeat, five hundred dollars an ounce over Q3 (!!) and that’s just for what we’ll see in Q4, come 1q26 it’s
threatening to add another three or four hundred. It’s difficult to put into words the magnitude of what we’re
seeing on a strict dollar generating basis here in
precious metals mining and it’s fair to say our sector
has never made the cash margins it’s making now.
As in right now, this very weekend in mines and
mills and gold rooms all over the planet, which
makes the job of a conservatively-hardwired analyst
(e.g. me) trying to find a reasonable, risk-adjusted
price target nigh-on impossible. After all, there are a
whole bunch of high-powered and educated people
in high-powered and educated establishments that
evidently do not have a clue about gold, either. This
list (right) is from this October 31st Reuters note (1)
and the red Xes added are for forecasts that are
either wrong for 2025 or already beaten for 2026.
That report isn’t from February or June, it’s less than
two months ago so reflect on the way 100% of the names on this list have failed to forecast just the last two
months of gold price action, people paid handsomely to get things like this right.
While on the subject, let’s unfairly pick on one of those dozen names and focus on what Carsten Fritsch of
Commerzbank has forecast in 2025: (2) (3) (4) (5) (6):
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 June 2025: "We have raised our forecast for the Gold price due to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and
expectations of a more pronounced weakness of the US dollar: we now expect a Gold price of $3,400 per troy
ounce by the end of this year and $3,600 by the end of next year (previously $3,000 in each case)."
 August 2025: “…the Gold price is unlikely to rise further for the time being. This was already evident yesterday,
when the price fell back slightly. The price is therefore not expected to exceed the $3,400 mark for now.”
 September 2025: Analysts at Commerzbank…led by Carsten Fritsch said they now expect gold prices to stand
at $3,600 per troy ounce this year and at $3,800 by the conclusion of 2026 -- $200 more than their initial outlook,
respectively.
 November 2025: “Commerzbank Forecasts Gold to Hit $4,200 per Ounce in 2026”
 December 2025: Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, noted that gold prices have doubled
since February 2024. He added that gold’s current pace is not sustainable. The German bank expects gold
prices to rise to $4,400 an ounce next year.
I want that guy’s job. We’re in a gold market that has made experts look stupid and, if we flip that particular
coin and consider its other side, therefore a market that’s made the most rampant and optimistic soothsayers
look smartest. No matter how wild or wooly your theory might be, as long as you’ve banged the table hard
and shouted “To Da Moon” loudly on your social media channel of choice, you’ve looked like a star and quite
frankly, they probably are the smartest right now. Or as some playwright once wrote:
Thus conscience doth make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action.
Bottom line: The above is 1,073 words and two charts to say the same thing as this desk has said all year: Be
long this metals and miners market, stay long this miners and metals market, keep dancing until the music
stops as it shows no sign at all of stopping.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v): Heads up on a new Chilean gold play
Preamble: It’s not open for trading yet so don’t go searching for that ticker on the TSXV site tomorrow but,
with the qualifying transaction (QT) recently completed we’re not far from the re-opening of trading in what
was Railtown Capital and will now be called Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v), a quasi-IPO of what’s set to be a hot
gold trade as 2026 rolls out. Today’s main fundies section is therefore less a stock reco and we’re not going
too deep into the weeds, instead please consider this a heads-up on the company, its project, its background
and potential as a trade. For this note I’m leaning heavily on company literature, such as the QT Filing
Statement and 43-101 technical report as found on SEDAR. There’s also a website up and running for the
company (7), which includes a brand new corporate presentation dated December 18th 2025 (8) and on
reviewing that this weekend, I’d recommend anyone interested in TNGD after reading this note to start there,
it’s one of the reasonably good, rose-tinted-but-factual corporate presentations that does its job well.
Overview: Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v) is an exploration stage junior mining company operating in Chile. Its
flagship property is the Volcan gold project located in the prolific Maricunga gold belt of Northern Chile.
Here’s our standard corporate top box, though in this case the notes below are important:
Shares out: 47.754m
Options: 0.18m
Warrants: 5.901m
Fully diluted: 53.835m
Pro forma share price: C$5.00
Pro forma F/D Market Cap: C$269.18m
Approx cash per S/O: C$1.10
All prices Canadian Dollars unless stated, forex CAD$1 = USD 0.72
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Notes: Firstly, note that this non-trading stock is priced at its pro-forma QT price of C$5.00 per share.
Secondly, while the standard shares out count is slightly under 48m, the real total that matters in this case is
the FD of 53.835m because it’s best to assume all those derivatives will be made whole in the near future.
Therefore, I’ve used the FD count to estimate the pro-forma market cap of C$269.18m, which includes the
cash raised in previous funding rounds plus the recent QT, with total available funds as per December of
C$53.82m.
As for major shareholders, they are dominated by Hochschild (HOC.L), the London-listed Peruvian based
silver mining company that bought the Volcan property in 2012 (deal closed January 11th 2013) and has been
the owner ever since. When TNGD goes public, HOC will own 33,329,800 shares representing 61.9% of the
fully diluted count (or 69% of current shares out). Three of the six directors of the company are HOC
representatives, so be in no doubt who is calling the shots on this company’s development.
As for the management and director team, they are headed by Fausto di Trapani, the former CFO of the
highly successful MAG Silver and current CEO of Kodiak Copper. Then Chris Taylor of Great Bear fame (and
currently Kodiak Copper) is the designated Chair, we also have Taylor's colleague at Kodiak Copper (KDK.v),
Claudia Tonquist, named as interim CFO. In other words, this is the "Discovery Group" team going into
business with Hochschild to jointly develop the Volcan property, with HOC providing the rocks and Chris
Taylor & Co providing market nous, radar and brains trust. However, the Discovery Group guys don't have
much direct skin in the game at the moment, with less than half a million shares of TNGD between them (and
Chris Taylor 380k of those).
A little more about Tiernan the vehicle
and Hochschild’s role in the newco,
starting with this ten-year price chart of
spot gold for the period 2008 to 2018. As
you can make out from my red scrawl
(hopefully), it takes in the low marked by
the Great Financial Crisis, the sharp rally
to 2011, then the plateau period when
gold oscillated between U$1.,600/oz and
U$1,800/oz. It was at the very end of this
period when HOC moved to buy out the
junior miner Andina Minerals, owners of
the Volcan project, paying C$105m at
what turned out to be the end of the top
of the market. Just a couple of months after the deal closed the gold price began its infamous collapse in
2012 and stayed at depressed levels to arguably 2019.
We’re in a much different price environment to anything on that chart these days, but at the time C$105m
was a lot for a company with a project that didn’t show marvelously on its economics. When the gold price
collapsed, Hochschild put Volcan firmly on the back burner and precious little was heard about the project for
years. It got a few brief mentions in 2019 when gold ran that year, then in 2022 HOC developed a PEA in
which it showed okay-ish economics but a hefty U$900m capex price compared to its cash flow potential.
Finally, we got the 43-101 technical report in mid-2025 that gets plenty of feature today, this was a key part
of the deal between HOC and what is now Tiernan Gold. However, it’s notable that in all the time Volcan has
been in HOC’s possession, not a single extra metre of drilling has been put into the project and all recent
economic studies and geological development has happened on the back of the drilling done by Andina
Minerals in the period 2006 to 2012.
As for the new vehicle, until recently Tiernan was called Railtown Capital, set up by the Discovery Group
people in 2020. It briefly considered taking on the Thor rare earths project in Nevada USA in 2023 before
backing out of that opportunity. In other words, Railtown was classic TSX shell company in search of a
project and something useful to do, in Volcan it’s hit on its project.
The project: As for Volcan here comes the need-to-know. Unlike Fenix, Volcan is a sulphide deposit which
requires milling and processing facility, rather than heap leach extraction. It’s located on the East side of the
world famous Maricunga Gold Belt, which as seen in this map is in the North of Chile and home to a whole
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host of names and projects that this audience will recognize, such as Salares Norte, La Coipa, Lobo Marte etc,
and of course the Rio2 Fenix project that’s about to go into production, we know about that one. Volcan sits
at 4,800masl, which makes it a high-altitude operation by anyone’s standards though in Chile, that’s a
manageable elevation (e.g. Rio2 at Fenix sits at between 4,300masl and 4,900masl).
Its resource is contained in three main zones, Dorado Oeste, Este and Central (Spanish lesson of the day,
“Dorado” = Golden, “Oeste” = West, “Este” = East and take a wild guess about the word “Central”) and
here’s the basic count and total from the 43-101:
Using a cut-off of 0.29 g/t for most of the deposit and 0.75 g/t for the small Central zone, Volcan runs an
M+I resource of 9.8m oz gold at 0.658 g/t, with another 1.25m oz in the inferred category. That, ladies and
gents, is a lot of gold and the main reason we need to pay attention to this project going forward.
According to the PEA, that resource would feed an 60kpd processing machine and deliver an average of
332,000 oz gold per year over the first ten years of mine life and 3.8m oz over the PEA’s estimated 14 year
mine life, so for one thing that’s a lot of gold and for another, another glance at the current resource will tell
you there’s likely a lot of extra mine life available to be added on as the project develops and matures.
The recent PEA dated July 2025 outlines the economics and since the first pass PEA in 2022, the estimated
capex has jumped to U$1.0193Bn and for what it’s worth, I can’t see this coming in for under U$1.5Bn by the
time everything is done inflation has done its thing between now and the current estimated first production
date of 2030 minimum (put me down for 2032).
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As for opex, that’s slated at U$15/mt and while that’s not out of the question, the implied AISC of just under
U$1,100/oz isn’t something I’m going to be setting my economics against.
On the other hand, a look at the PEA economic analysis section and the sensitivity tables on page 251 (if
you’re so inclined) give an indication of how the improved gold price easily counters higher capex and op-ex
assumptions. The study uses a baseline U$2,400/oz gold price, for a post-tax NPV of U$1.513Bn and IRR of
28.7%, but move gold up to U$3,600/oz and even if you raise capex and opex by 25%, the post-tax NPV
moves up by a cool U$1.2Bn to over U$2.7Bn and IRR to 43%.
Finally and before wrapping this overview up, we note there’s a 1.5% NSR on the property held by Franco-
Nevada (FNV). There’s another royalty owned by locals, but that only kicks in after 4m oz have been mined
so it’s in the distant future and not something that will perturb any purchase decision on shares in 2026.
Summing up, there’s plenty of theoretical mining above, hey that’s why PEAs exist of course, but before any
of that happens TNGD has a timeline of development mapped out and in the first 18 months, is slated to
spend approximately half its current C$53m treasury on a range of studies, drilling and PFS. But before even
then, the new company floats on the TSXV and that’s why it’s being featured today because for me, this
looks severely under-priced at its pro-forma C$5 price.
 For one thing, gold is all the rage right now (you don’t need me to tell you that
 For another thing, Rio2 at Fenix is about to cast the region in good light with another gold mine
commissioned in the Maricunga
 For another thing, we have a President-Elect in Chile that will view all mining development in the best
of light.
 For another thing, the current PEA and resource is likely to see significant improvement in size and
scope as Volcan is developed and drilled for the first time in 14 years.
But above all, a C$269m (U$194m) market cap represents a P/NPV of just 0.072X, that could triple and there
wouldn’t be many eyelids batted.
Bottom line: Keep an eye out for the upcoming pseudo-IPO of Tiernan Gold (TNGD.v). Even though Hocschild
overpaid for Volcan and ended up holding an expensive bag on its purchase for over a decade, the market
has come right for this project and in this company structure, is bound to appeal to a market on the lookout
for the next big thing in the gold world. With an all-categories 10m oz gold resource located in what is now a
fabvourable jurisdiction for developers and a mine plan that promises 300k oz+ years, a production schedule
that would appeal to all bar the very biggest of the Tier 1 producers, Volcan suddenly ticks all the boxes and
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once it starts trading, if you can buy shares at anything even close to its current pro forma valuation of C$5
you’ll be getting a bargain.
Right metal
Right size
Right team
Right location
Right price
This one is going to run. Heads-up complete.
Stocks to Follow
Another rip-roaring week for mining stocks and happily, our Stocks to Follow list joined in the fun. There are
just three losers to report (MARI.to, XXIX.v, MENE.v) and four other stocks remaining unchanged (GROY,
WRLG.v, RPX.v, MIRL.cse) which leaves fourteen winners so I’m not listing all the tickers, we’ll merely tip our
hat and raise a cheer to the big moves in Salazar Resources (SRL.v up 29.4%), Aurion Resources (AU.v up
28.3%), Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v up 23.5%), Arizona Metals (AMC.to up 15.8%), Electrum Discovery (ELY.v
up 15.4%) and Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up 14.3%). All good clean fun.
With American Eagle now official and open, there are 21 open positions on our Stocks to Follow list which is
one over our normal, self-imposed maximum. That’s likely to stay that way for a few more weeks until we
cash in on one or more of the near-term TLS trades. Seventeen of the twenty-one are in the green, two are
unchanged, two are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$2.80 250.0% Re-rated to new $4.13 tgt
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v HOLD C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.44 109.5% $0.70 tgt, selling early 2026
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$4.29 178.6% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$10.95 259.0% Quality Cu dev, FS due
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$4.09 192.1% 2nd target U$5 in 2026
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.88 20-Jul-25 C$1.03 17.0% re-rate trade, $1.44tgt
Wesdome Gold WDO.to BUYING C$22.42 30-Nov-25 C$23.59 5.2% New trade, buyout tgt
Blue Moon MOON.v BUYING C$4.18 30-Nov-25 C$4.55 8.9% New trade, LT view
Aurion Res AU.v BUY C$1.07 21-Sep-25 C$1.45 35.5% Agnico will buy more Finland
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.12 8-Sep-24 C$0.155 29.2% Added more Sep & Oct'25
Arizona Metals AMC.to will add C0.66 5-Oct-25 C$0.66 0.0% will add as TLS trade
American Eagle AE.v SPEC BUY C$0.495 14-Dec-25 C$0.53 7.1% TLS trade
Valkea Res OZ.v will buy C$0.26 9-Nov-25 C$0.28 7.7% will add as TLS trade
Electrum Disc ELY.v SPEC BUY C$0.075 9-Nov-25 C$0.075 0.0% TLS trade
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.22 175.0% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.20 5.3% proj.generator, Organullo spec
XXIX Metal XXIX.v STR BUY C$0.11 27-Aug-25 C$0.115 4.5% v good PEA Oct'25
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.105 75.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.20 900.0% Rio Negro gold developer
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LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.165 -63.3% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
Minera Alamos MAI.v Aug'25 C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% lightened overweight position
Surge Copper SURG.v Sep'25 $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.215 104.8% took profits, good result
Provenance Gold PAU.cse Oct'25 C$0.15 27-Aug-25 C$0.265 76.7% took profits, good result
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered stocks:
American Eagle Gold Corp (AE.v): POSITION OPENED. As seen I was happy to get a cost average of
under 50c and as the week wore on, we even had a few signs that the stock was ready to wake up from its
extended slumber. The trade is now set, the strategy is simple and if the Market Gods are kind I won’t think
twice about taking a near-term profit.
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): POSITION OPENED. I didn’t expect to be able to get the 6.5c shares noted
last weekend and sure enough, this thin market (and some personal impatience, has to be admitted) saw me
paying up a little for this trade. Be clear this one is a small trade, don’t confuse this TLS speculative shot with
the kind of money in play at what I consider my serious investments in this sector (RIO.to,, MAI.v, ARG.to
etc).
Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): WILL ADD SOON. A slightly strange feeling to be annoyed about a
+15.8% move in one of your active holdings and seeing it go from in the red to breakeven on your personal
cost average at the same time. Time will tell whether I was stupid to wait until after Christmas to take my
next bite of these shares in the TLS trade package, but the way in which AMC rallied last week suggests the
worst of the tax loss selling may be behind us. I’m sticking to the plan, but if the stock continues to run hard
without my addition I’ll continue to be annoyed with myself.
Valkea Resources (OZ.v): WILL BUY SOON. Quiet. That’s fine by me.
Aurion Resources (AU.v): One of the things we noted while opening this trade was its track record of
putting in sudden and violent price spikes from time to time, it’s one of the reasons your author was willing to
take the patient path as it was always in the card that
AU.v might go through a fallow period before suddenly
seeing a fast catch-up move. And here we are:
Our main WWAD (What Will Agnico Do?) trade woke
up last week, put in a 28% spurt over the last two
days of the week and on decent volume, too. There’s
no solid news on which to peg this move, there is
however the right sort of timing because Decembers
are when large-scale mining companies tend to
finalize their capital and exploration budgets for the
year ahead so if Agnico has decided to deepen its
relationship with Finland AU.v and others would
certainly benefit.
9

Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v): It wasn’t the only junior to have a perky and positive Friday, but it was one
of them and MOON.v again showed its risk to the upside and the way any new money seems to have to pay
up. This trade has started well, it’s always nice to be on the right side of your cost average at an early stage
of a longer-term trade plan though in the same breath, I’ll repeat that there’s a chance we’ll see sub-C$4
prices again. If so, it would represent a great deal.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to): The reason to buy WDO is simple, I think it’s going to impress the market with
an improved set of Q4 production and sales figures, then guide to the market’s satisfaction for 2026. At that
point it will be in-play and as the M&A atmosphere heats up, there are many targets as obvious as this one. A
medium-sized gold miner with two high-grade mines located in the best jurisdictions of Canada? Sign me up.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): On Thursday morning, OCI announced a notable deal that adds significant value to its
share price on an objective basis and pleasingly, it’s also fits squarely into our thesis for owning this “Hub
Stock” of the Ore Group of companies. The first paragraph of the NR (9) gives the need-to-know, the second
one has the CEO comment, here are both:
Toronto, ON – December 18, 2025 – Orecap Invest Corp . (OCI.V | ORFDF: OTCQB) (“Orecap” or the
“Company”) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an arm’s length definitive agreement with
Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp. (KLDC:TSXV) (“KLDC”) to sell its 100%-owned Mirado property
(“Mirado” or the “Project”), located 35km southeast of Kirkland Lake, Ontario for 19.9% ownership of
KLDC (the “Transaction”).
“We are very pleased with this transaction, which reflects Orecap’s continued evolution toward
holding material equity positions in high-quality exploration and development companies led by
strong, well-financed management teams. We are not exiting Mirado, rather, we are transforming our
exposure by becoming shareholders in one of the largest landholders in the Kirkland Lake district.
This is a camp where Orecap and its portfolio companies have deep roots, and we are pleased to
expand our exposure in what remains one of Canada’s premier gold jurisdictions, said Stephen
Stewart, Orecap’s Chairman.
It’s particularly pleasing to see OCI benefit from the sale of a land asset that’s been ignored by those who
would value this company and adding zero to its share price. We’d advocated for OCI based on the latent
value in its Mirado, McGarry and Knight land assets from the start of this trade and now the world wants
prospects in the bets areas, they’re suddenly getting equity value as well. Mirado is now taken, McGarry has
been farmed out to Stardust (ZIGY.cse) and will add value to the Ore Group on its own path, I expect it’s not
more than a matter of time before Knight, the property that neighbours the Juby project (McFarlane Lake
10

Mining, MLM.v) to the North, gets its revaluation. But leaving Knight to one side for a moment, if we assume
the deal and that of Stardust (ZIGY.cse) closes as expected (and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t, the
pro-forma shareholdings at OCI now add up in this way:
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
ticker shares owned(m) PPS valueC$m Cents/share
AE.v 10.72 0.53 5.68 2.3
ARIC.v 7.39 0.63 4.66 1.9
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.43 1.79 0.7
XXIX.v 23.637 0.115 2.72 1.1
AUME.v 42.75 0.07 2.99 1.2
MERG.v 1.025 0.74 0.76 0.3
MERG warrant 0.5125 0.29 0.15 0.1
ZIGY.cse 4.942 0.35 1.73 0.7
KLDC.v 40.040 0.31 12.41 5.0
subtotal 32.89 13.2
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 32.92 13.3c
At 248.332 S/O
That’s 13.3c/share for a stock priced at 10.5c this weekend, representing an arbitrage of 26.7%. A lot of that
is in KLDC at these prices and with a 12 month escrow on those shares, OCI won’t be able to realize cash
value from last week’s deal for a while even if it wants to, but asset value is asset value and that portfolio
above provides ample reasons to believe in OCI at its current price. The real prize is and will always be the
market-moving discovery or development and any one of the stocks carried by OCI today has the potential to
become a Big Thing. The bet here is upside potential with limited downside risk, a classic “hub company”.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We got a live webcast from MAI.v on Thursday, a hour in which Darren Blasutti
took over the media responsibilities and told us of the bright future at the company in 2026. Find the replay
of the event on either of these links (10) (11). These notes are not going to pull MAI or Blasutti apart on
questions of style. We know “New MAI” has changed direction, it won’t be run the same way as before,
they’ve decided to hire an EVP as media front instead of getting a C-suiter to do the work and the man has a
dubious track record and scant success to speak of (for shareholders at least). So this is about the substance
of the interview and to be fair, I agree with most of the message Blasutti had to offer because, within
margins of error, it’s why I haven’t dumped the 70% of shares held until the big change happened in August.
I too believe MAI is primed for a re-rate going into 2026 and the Pan cash flow will make a real difference to
its image and market radar. However, I do have substantial issues with some of his presentation and that’s
why this note got longer than I expected.
First up, we got confirmation of a couple of matters, such as the next project up will be Copperstone and this
visual from the accompanying corporate presentation show how they plan to be in production there as early
as this time next year:
11

No problems there, also Blasutti confirmed the previously flagged 10-to-1 reverse share split would happen
before the end of this year, with December 30th or 31st the magic date. At that point MAI will have 107m and
change in shares out and a share price that allows it to apply for its desired NYSE/Nasdaq listing in The USA.
Blasutti’s explanation/defence of the share rollback was also reasonable and makes sense, as they see a
listing on a main US board as an obvious way to get included in precious metals ETFs and from there, see the
PE ratio increase to the median of peers. All good.
Now for the issues and once again, they center around Cerro de Oro and the corporate plans. Please note
above the visual telling us that production at CdO would begin in H2 2027 “permits pending” and when
quizzed on this subject, Blasutti told us the company was confident that they’d get the necessary and elusive
permits in 2026. And that’s where I have my major problem with last week’s show, here’s a transcript of a
part of what he said on the subject:
And one of the things that's shifted in Mexico is… it's not so much that they have a ban on open pits
anymore. What they're very concerned about looking at is how much water you use and where that
water usage is and how that affects agriculture and other things that happen in the region. And so
they changed it from really being a ban on open pits to, they've set up a new water ministry…they had
CONAGUA which was the monitoring stuff but they have a new Federal group that basically looks at
all these project permits and says yes or no, but it's really based on water now. And if you think about
what we have being North of Peñasquito and Camino Rojo, which are much bigger assets than us
that are already permitted, once you build it you put an open pit in place, you need water to get the
cyanide solution to work, but you're capturing almost all of that water back and reusing it so the
amount of water usage is not like a mill where you're constantly using it. We're basically recycling a
lot of our water, so the water usage is very small. So we're very optimistic about our permit in 2026.
I invite you to compare the above message to the contents of IKN863 and IKN864 Regional Politics sections
on the new Mexico Water Law, because the above is sophistry [i.e. the art of not telling the truth while not
lying at the same time, an ability junior mining Corporate Development desks seem to value highly]. Aside
the simple fact that there has never been a ban on open pits, the way in which a law that has changed the
country’s Constitution, makes access to water a human right, removes any asset ownership from private
entities, puts community rights in front of businesses (including agriculture, sorry Mr. Blasutti) the stops third
parties from buying or selling water permits and can unilaterally decide to rescind water permits at any given
moment even if they have been previously granted is a long way from the milquetoast description given by
Blasutti in his presentation last week. I don’t like being BSsed at the best of times, I particularly don’t like it
from someone with an awful track record of doing exactly that and with a past history of abject failure when
dealing with Mexican authorities. And by the way, if you really want to know the details of this new law check
out this link (12), a deeper legal dive from law firm Greenberg Traurig and published last Tuesday, everything
you ever wanted to know but were too afraid to ask. After reading and digesting its contents, I find myself
concurring with Rubén del Pozo, president of the Mexican Association of Mining, Metallurgical, and Geological
Engineers (Asociación de Ingenieros de Minas, Metalurgistas y Geólogos de México, AIMMGM) and his
comment as published last week in IKN864:
"We need to sound the alarm, mining involves investments that take a very long time to mature. So
we can't say that mining (in Mexico) is finished due because of this, but we do need to be very careful
because we're now sending signals of uncertainty, the worst enemy of investment. When there's no
legal certainty, the first thing investors do is allocate their money elsewhere, we're talking about large
sums of money that need to be active.”
That’s a nautical mile away from the soft-soap presented by Blasutti last week and what’s more, I again
contend that even if “things are getting better” for Mexican mining companies, it would come as zero
surprised to learn that MAI.v has been shuffled to the very back of the queue now that it has someone of
Blasutti’s awful reputation in the country working there. Honestly, this is the dumbest hire imaginable if you
want a permit from Mexico, red rag to bull provocation.
I will get my higher priced window to exit from MAI.v next year and I will take it. And by the way, if that
suggests to you that MAI.v is a decent near-term trade with the potential to run +50% in the next quarter as
the first parts of its new story come together, I’d readily agree with you. As a near-term spec on gold and
internal newsflow, it’s got a lot going for it at this point but once the price is over 60c, if you continue to buy
shares you may end up buying mine.
12

Salazar Resources (SRL.v): It’s a long time since we’ve seen SRL at these prices, as this four-year chart
shows:
That looks like a bona fide breakout to me, as long as it
holds this week. I’ll just rue the fact I chose to beef up
my Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) trade instead of this
one, but only because I have to find some way of
complaining. More please.
The Copper Basket
After fifty-one weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 111.77% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 756.28 25.20 264.2%
2 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 1069.93 6.52 295.2%
3 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 302.76 987.00 3.26 128.0%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 174.6 811.89 4.65 216.3%
5 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 250.605 644.05 2.57 247.3%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 543.72 3.20 68.4%
7 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 461.24 3.70 80.5%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 175.07 203.08 1.16 73.1%
9 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 289.289 188.04 0.65 18.2%
10 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 136.924 136.92 1.00 61.9%
11 Andina Copper ANDC.v 0.16 211.085 111.88 0.53 231.3%
12 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 172.877 91.62 0.53 -23.2%
13 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 143.08 60.81 0.425 34.9%
14 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 304.79 35.05 0.115 4.5%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.622 16.92 0.475 -20.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg 111.77%
The basket stayed at the same level bar the tenths for the third week running, the exact difference a 0.21%
loss compared to IKN864 via just five week-over-week winners (ATX.v, TMQ.to, FDY.to, BIG.v, AE.v) versus
nine losers (SOLG.l, ALDE.v, REG.v, ASCU.to, HCH.v,
ECU.v, XXIX.v, KBX.cse, CGNT.v), with one stock The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
140%
unchanged on the week (ANDC.v). There were two big
120%
movers in either direction, the winning performances
100%
from Atex Resources (ATX.v up 14.4%) and Faraday
80%
Copper (FDY.to up 12.7%), while the losers were 60%
Aldebaran (ALDE.v down 13.3%) and Copper Giant 40%
(CGNT.v down 11.5%). So with just a week left to run, 20%
we have five of our fifteen basket stocks with 200%+ 0%
improvements on the year. Quite a thing. -20%
The miners continue to be supported by copper-the-
metal and this chart of our preferred Comex near-
dated futures contract points out the last time it traded under U$5/lb. That was four weeks ago and that
means it’s been a notable Santa Rally for the red metal.
13
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7ced ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs

The LME price for copper is keeping tabs with the Comex contracts, as seen in this Reuters report out
Thursday (13)
Dec 19 (Reuters) - Copper prices climbed on Friday, moving within $25 of a record high after another
bullish forecast by Goldman Sachs highlighted mine supply constraints.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.9% at $11,877.50 as of
1720 GMT. It earlier rose as much as 1.3% to $11,928, within striking distance of the all-time peak of
$11,952 recorded last week.
The metal, widely used in power, construction and manufacturing, is on course to add 3.2% this week
and is up more than 35% in 2025.
"Copper remains our favourite long-run industrial metal because it faces unique mine supply
constraints and structurally strong demand growth," Goldman Sachs said in a note on Thursday,
reiterating its $15,000 a ton forecast for 2035.
That U$11,887.50/tonne price noted above is U$5.39/lb in old money, the same arbitrage we’ve seen for the
last couple of months. However, the reason offered for the price rise last week, i.e. that Goldman Sachs
update note, couldn’t help but make me smile because the current Vampire Squid position really isn’t that
bullish compared to the current momentum and noise. Here’s a link to the report (14) and here’s a quote:
While copper reached a record $11,771 per tonne on December 8, Goldman Sachs Research
expects a continued global surplus of supply to prevent copper prices from exceeding $11,000 for a
sustained period in 2026. Chinese demand for refined copper is estimated to have fallen to -8% year-
on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, as the boost from stimulus policies and tariff-related front-
loading at the beginning of the year has waned.
Go read it all yourself, but GS is calling copper at-or-about
its near-term top today and also points out that the
market for physical metal is likely to remain in surplus for
the foreseeable future, something you’d never guess from
the bullish rah-rah around the metal today (or that
carefully selected Reuters quote, for that matter. Here’s a
visual from the GS report on that data (right). Now for
sure this is Goldman’s opinion and they’re also the worst
faders (of their own clientele) out there, but getting their
message right is important. When the world berates them
in 1q26 for being too bullish, they’ll have plenty of defence
and I’m more interested in the way bizwires are being
selective in their quotes right now.
Now for our regular weekly look at the movements in world copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 The aggregate net adds continue, with the three official copper futures systems adding a grand
total of 9,032 metric tonnes (mt) to reach a total of 673,115mt.
 Another increase in copper stored in Shanghai SHFE warehouses, another week that lends weight
to copper’s need to correct soon. In what is normally high season for buyers a send –users stock
up their factories, SHFE 6,416mt net added to inventory and a finish on the week of 95,805mt.
14

It’s not an overtly bearish situation as seeing stocks under 100k are normal for this time of year,
but there’s an evident lack of appetite to pay up for metal. The buying season has somewhere
between two and five weeks to go, but after that bet dollars to donuts SHFE stocks rise as
Chinese end-users feed off their stockpiles and that’s when we copper bulls need to watch out
 The only system to register a drop in copper stocks was the LME, which finished down 5,500mt
at 160,400mt. All but 150my of that left its Asia warehouses, so at least someone is buying over
that side of the Pacific.
 Business as usual at the Comex, its trend is set and keeps on delivering ATH after ATH for copper
stocks. This time, 8,116mt was added to bring the total to 416,910mt.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows how the continued flat-line of 2025 has turned one of the lowest stock
levels (August/September) into the 3rd highest over our eight year sample. And tell me to shut my fat cake
hole if you want, but this dovetails with our position regarding copper at the moment; play the December
momentum, be warned about the potential for a re-trace in early 2026. What’s more, Goldman Sachs seems
to agree.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for a few notes on a handful of the basket stocks:
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): An interesting appointment at BIG.v last week (15) that starts with these two
paragraphs:
“…Hercules Metals Corp. is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Matthieu Bos as an
independent director of the Company and Chairman of the Board, effective immediately. Mr. Bos
succeeds Peter Simeon, who will continue to serve as a director of the Company.
Matthieu Bos is a mining executive and capital markets professional with more than 15 years of
experience spanning investment banking, project development, and corporate leadership in the global
mining sector. He brings deep expertise in large-scale copper development, financing, and
governance, with a career that bridges institutional capital markets and tier-one mine building.”
We then get his potted résumé and if you want to read the professionally compiled script, use the link. Here
we go with “…eight years with Ivanhoe Mines Ltd…key member…Kamoa-Kakula Copper Project”, “Metals &
Mining Investment Banking team at BMO Capital Markets in London”, “...non-executive director of Elemental
Altus Royalties Corp.”, “Mr. Bos currently serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of Falcon Energy
Materials plc…” and other such matters.
In other words, a serious mining person and something that BIG.v has probably lacked in its first three years.
CEO Chris Paul offered welcoming words in the NR, but if I had to bet I’d say that his performance would be
the first to go under scrutiny of the incoming Chair considering the quantity of swings and misses at the
project. Overall, I like this appointment and as I’ve been thinking about the potential of BIG.v as a rebound
play, it gives another reason to consider it as a trade in 2026.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) and Faraday Copper (FDY.to): Right place right time? They aren’t the only
two stocks to benefit, but the Trump admin’s new interest in mining projects inside The USA is a clear
tailwind to these companies and that was underscored last week by one Jarrod Agen, executive director of
the White House's National Energy Dominance Council (16):
White House plans more 'historic deals' with mining sector, official says

The Trump administration plans more "historic deals" with the US mining sector to boost production of
critical minerals for the national defense and high-tech sectors, a senior official said on Monday.
Earlier this year, the administration took equity stakes in MP Materials, Lithium Americas and Trilogy
Metals. The transactions were part of President Donald Trump's push to increase domestic
production of lithium, rare earths and other minerals used for the national defense and rely less on
China, which has used its minerals prowess as leverage in trade negotiations.
"What we want to see is the ability for the US to not be reliant on any adversary out there or any other
foreign entity, that we control our own destiny when it comes to our supply chain and our critical
minerals," Jarrod Agen, executive director of the White House's National Energy Dominance Council,
said on Monday.
"We've set a good pace so far, but this is just the first year."
On Monday, Korea Zinc said it would build the first US minerals refinery in decades with
Washington's financial support.
"You're going to see throughout this administration historic deals when it comes to critical minerals,
historic partnerships with the private sector, and then really a revitalization of mining in this country,"
Agen told a critical minerals conference hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies
in Washington, DC. The remarks were webcast.
Agen, who previously held roles at defense contractor Lockheed Martin, said Trump aims to
"jumpstart" mining projects in Alaska and also in Arizona, where Rio Tinto and BHP aim to build one
of the world's largest copper mines.
Rio Tinto and BHP indeed…and ASCU and FDY, in fact.
Atex Resources (ATX.v): The biggest winner of the week
from our sample of fifteen, ATX reacted well on Friday to the
NR post-close Thursday (17) announcing “146 Meters Of
2.00% CuEq At B2B Zone With Over 600 Meters Of Results
Still Pending” in its headline, the BsB zone being the latest
identified target at Valeriano and source of very good
grades. This drill map (right) is one of several in the NR and
a decent way of locating the new B”B zone where these
holes went in, compared to the main porphyry stock. Before
moving on and by way of a reminder, the depth of the
resource is known to one and all but as the resource is
located inside a mountainous elevation and close to one of
the mountainsides, the ballpark plan to mine Valeriano
would be to access by tunneling from the side and then
block caving the resource.
In fact there were two holes partially reported (with the bottom of the holes expected from the labs) next
month), both returning similar assays; ATXD26B gave us 146m of 1.30% Cu and ATXD26C gave us 164m of
1.69% Cu from the sweet spot…
…and the company was clearly keen on getting some
news out there before the market shut down for the
holiday period, hence the rush job and partial results of
the full hole. The share price duly did what they wanted
it to do and after tracking flat for the last few weeks,
kicked at the open and then saw another burst of buying
at market close, ending up 50c on the day and strong
volume of over 1.6m shares traded.
16

Valeriano’s rocks have never been in doubt, we knew a large and metallically endowed porphyry was there
before the first drill turned. It never was and never will be the fatal flaw for this project. For one thing, the
ballpark plan to block cave at 3,700masl from a side access is easier said than done and for another water
supply is major obstacle no matter what arm-waving “we’ll just pipe it in from the sea” proponents tell you.
The Producer Basket
After 51 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 147.86% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1108 112.23 101.29 172.1%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 502.579 87.55 174.21 122.7%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1705.994 76.31 44.73 188.6%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 40.71 211.88 80.2%
5 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 201.275 7.15 35.53 138.9%
6 New Gold NGD 2.49 791.7 6.98 8.82 255.6%
7 OceanaGold OGC.to 11.94 231.127 6.41 39.08 227.3%
8 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1330.134 6.04 4.54 86.1%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 3.60 12.12 117.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 2.55 17.04 89.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 147.86%
Another positive-not-perfect week for the Producer Basket, with two of the nine active positions showing
modest week-over-week losses (FNV, BTG) but the other seven were winners (NEM, AEM, B, EGO, OGC.to,
NGD, WDOFF) with the best of the bunch New Gold (NGD up 5.3%) once again, though this time Wesdome
(WDOFF up 4.0%) took the runner’s up prize and that’s not a bad thing, we haven’t seen WDO on the
podium many times this year
With just one week to go our ten picks are 11.04% behind the GDX benchmark, the 2025 failure will be set in
stone soon enough.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
12% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
B2Gold (BTG): Our last note on BTG was in IKN859, just after it had reported its 3q25 earnings and told the
world that Goose was once again behind schedule. The Mali political scare has taken a little wind out of its
sails just a week before the Q3 numbers and together, all momentum and the rebound we during the
Northern summer was stopped in its tracks. The under-performance has continued into December and BTG
has failed to rally with peers in the last three weeks. For context, we have four stocks in our 2025 basket with
“Six Billion Or Abouts” market caps at this time, here’s how they’ve done in December as marked by the
closing prices seen in IKN862 (November 30th) and today:
B2Gold IKN862: U$4.62
B2Gold IKN865: U$4.54
Change: -1.7%
Eldorado Gold IKN862: U$31.31
Eldorado Gold IKN865: U$35.53
Change: +13.5%
17
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7ced ht41 ts12
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
160% comparative to GDX control
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data 0%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7ced ht41 ts12
ikn
gdx control
source: IKN calcs

New Gold IKN862: U$8.35
New Gold IKN865: U$8.82
Change: +5.6%
OceanaGold IKN862: C$5.90
OceanaGold IKN865: C$6.41
Change: +8.6%
And if you think I added that splash of colour to ram home the
point, you’re right. So BTG has had a hard time of it in Q4. If
we assume Goose will get its act together in 2026, there’s a
re-rate waiting to happen and one that could start at a lower
than expected baseline. What I will state at this point is that
B2Gold will stay on the Producer Basket list for 2026 as it’s shaping as the type of producer trade I’d look to
for out-performance over the course of a year. Also as mentioned, it’s my idea of a takeover target as well.
The TinyCaps List
After 51 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 44.23% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 11.52 0.085 -50.0%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 31.48 0.21 44.8%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 7.42 0.075 -42.3%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 45.84 0.26 79.3%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 95.39 84.90 0.89 128.2%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 24.38 0.20 150.0%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 374.759 101.18 0.27 107.7%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 15.60 0.145 70.6%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 9.69 0.14 -74.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 26.20 0.18 28.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 44.23%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average dropped by 1.21%, a small shift that 60% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
saw the five losers (BRO.v, EDG.v, MOG.v, RDU.v, VAU.v)
50%
lose just a little more than the five winners (CN.v, ELY.v,
40%
KDK.v, LMS.v, STS.v) won. The biggest move was the 30%
17.1% improvement in Kodiak Copper (KDK.v). 20%
10%
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): After my thorough gripe about 0%
the company’s updated resource for MPD last weekend, -10%
I’m glad I added the “I’m not against KDK and it’s a
18
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7ced ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

reasonable way to speculate on copper” caveat at the end of my rant because…
…the resource and the marketing campaign turned out to be enough to add over 17% to the stock price. The
move came in two main impulses, the first out of the gate Monday morning and then in the final few minutes
of Friday, both moves coming on volume.
}
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Bolivia deteriorates
Our last update on Bolivia and its new government under President Rodrigo Paz came three weeks ago in
IKN862 dated November 30th. In “Bolivia: The new government is already disintegrating” that day, we noted
things weren’t going swimmingly and serious internal conflicts were already showing. We ended with this:
“When Paz won the election, this desk applauded the result but also stayed clear of diving straight in with
Bolivia mining companies, preferring to watch and wait a while to see how the Paz presidency bedded in.
That’s looking like the right course of action and I’ll remain on watching brief for the time being.”
Even if I say so myself, that position is looking smarter by the week. The latest development in the country
(and likely the reason his Veep is so mad at Pa, see IKN862) is last week’s executive decree, “Decreto
Supremo 5503”, a package of financial and fiscal measures which, according to President Paz, was (18)
“…necessary to “speak the truth” about the state of the economy and address what he called “the bankruptcy
and corruption” inherited from previous MAS administrations. To offset the rising costs of living, Paz
highlighted his administration's increases to social vouchers, including the allowances for seniors and
students”. Also:
“The decree will not be changed because it is a starting point,” Paz asserted, though he noted the
government remains open to “improving” the measure through future initiatives.”
What’s the problem? Here’s what Supreme Decree 5503 is all about, according to a local law firm (19)
The primary purpose is to implement exceptional measures aimed at restoring macroeconomic
stability, recovering domestic liquidity, strengthening international reserves, reactivating production
and investment, and enhancing transparency in public management. To this end, the decree declares
a National Economic, Financial, Energy, and Social Emergency throughout the country, enabling
specific mechanisms to achieve these goals.
That’s a nice way of framing what Bolivians are calling “Gasolinazo”, i.e. the government taking subsidies off
fuel and mandating new prices that mean gas prices will rise by 86% and (for Bolivia, the all-important)
diesel price by 162%. Those with a memory may recall that non-Evo governments have tried and failed to
implement this measure previously, only to end up in total disarray and sure enough, the push back from
rank and file has been immediate, strong and led by the most powerful union in the country, the COB, which
includes most of the formal mineworkers in Bolivia. Here’s Bolivia’s nacional daily newspaper La Razon on the
issue (20):
Miners Decide to Strike Indefinitely and Protest Until Paz Resigns
19

Formally employed mineworkers will launch an indefinite general strike that will continue until
President Rodrigo Paz resigns, in protest against the government's economic policies and, in
particular, Supreme Decree 5503. They accuse the Executive branch of favoring the wealthy at the
expense of the working class. "Salaried miners hereby instruct and declare an indefinite general
strike, mobilizing until the resignation of the entire current government, the repeal of Decree 5503 and
other recently approved decrees that have benefited the rich," said (mining spokesperson) André
Paye at the miners' press conference.
Is weekend saw frenetic activity within the Pax government as officials met with a list of union
representatives from diverse fields of activity (truck drivers, bus companies, minor mining unions, etc) that
were also significantly affected by the sharp rise in fuiel prices and had voiced their support of the COB-led
strike. As I write these words Sunday evening the situation is fluid and anything could happen in the days
ahead, but as from today Monday Bolivia is on strike alert and there’s a high potential the usual levels of
mayhem that goes along with an Andean workers’ protest, with roadblocks and massed marches in cities as
standard fayre. On the one side, I’m sure President Paz isn’t lying when stating that the measures are
necessary to dig his country out of a deep financial hole, but by the same token this rise in fuel prices was
not part of his election manifesto as there’s no way in the world he would have been elected if he’d been
open and honest about it during the campaign. So Bolivia is back as a tinderbox and over there in the
background, the still politically important Evo Morales waits for chaos in order to reassert his left wing
politics.
Ecuador: The Ministry of Revolving Doors
Last week we got the latest resignation from the post of Vice-Minister of Mining in Ecuador, as the latest
victim, one Javier Subía, left after pushback from the comments he made about the Dundee Mining (DPM.to)
Loma Larga project caused embarrassment to the government of Daniel Noboa. During the “Enaep”
(Encuentro Anual de Minería) mining conference on December 11th, Subia said that environmental issues
were holding back the Lomna Larga project and he hoped that they would be resolved in the future. That
caused a blowup in and around the locality around Loma Larga, as the project is under total and indefinite
suspension and they want it to remain that way. When accepting Subia’s resignation the government was
forced to state that it would not move forward with Lomna Larga in any way, shape or form.
That’s a clear indictment of Loma Larga, it shows the people power in Ecuador against unwelcome projects
(looking at you, Warintza) but it also made for this headline in the national daily, La Hora (21):
With the Exit of Javier Subia, Ecuador Is About To Appoint its 28th
Vice-Minister of Mining in the Last Six Years
Yes, that says twenty-eight, an impressive total and not in a good way. What’s more, the last nine have all
been during the presidency of Daniel Noboa. If you want one datapoint that shows the institutional instability
of mining in Ecuador, look no further.
Chile: Kast and mining
President-elect José Antonio Kast has to wait until March to become the country’s Head of State, but he took
to the airwaves in Chile last week to lay out his plans for the country and for his government, the first and
most pressing issues are immigration (i.e. how to stem it) and crime (i.e. how to stop the rise of narco-
gangs). Mining is currently down the list of hot topics or priorities, but there has been debate on the sidelines
and this interview (22) done by BN Americas with one Elena Moreno, president of the pro-mining corporate
think tank “Corporación Alta Ley”, points to what we can expect. There are several national-focused issues
discussed but what matters most to us comes at the start of the Q&A:
Innovation, circularity and flexible regulation: keys for Chile's mining under Kast's leadership
In a context of growing competitiveness and sustainability challenges, BNamericas spoke with Elena
Moreno, president of Corporación Alta Ley, who emphasized the need to create incentives to speed
up technological adoption in Chile’s mining industry.
Strengthening the circular economy, expanding the uses of copper slag and moving toward more
flexible regulation should be priorities on the mining agenda of the next government of José Antonio
Kast, said Moreno, the current head of the Chilean organization that promotes public-private
collaboration to energize the mining innovation ecosystem.
BNamericas: What aspects should be prioritized in José Antonio Kast's government's mining agenda
in Chile?
20

Moreno: Among the priorities is creating incentives to develop a more competitive, innovative, and
sustainable mining industry, understanding that innovation is a key enabler for the sector’s
productivity, sustainability, and local impact.
In addition, create enabling regulation for innovation that makes it possible to speed up mining
innovation projects through special permits that are simpler and faster, and that facilitate piloting,
validation, and technological adoption. This regulation must recognize that innovating involves
testing, learning, and adjusting, and that these processes require regulatory frameworks that are
flexible and proportional to the risk.
Adjustments to the SEIA [environmental impact assessment service] are also required to facilitate
innovation and circular mining projects, including reviewing the entry thresholds for these projects,
with the aim of avoiding long and costly processes. This, together with taking into consideration in the
assessment all the environmental, social, and economic benefits that these projects generate in the
medium and long term.
Agreed. No matter where you are in LatAm, the single most-repeated complaint from mining companies is
the time it takes to get permits for whatever activity and with Chile looking to uphold its reputation as the
region’s #1 mining jurisdiction, we should expect a relaxation of the rules and a speedier timeline once Kast
is in office.
Argentina fast-tracks the Glacier Law amendment
For a relative newcomer to the messy world of weird rules and nefarious tactics, Javier Milei has got good at
the game of national politics. This showed again when, just two days after hid blowout victory in the midterm
elections in October, he took advantage of a mechanism available to the President’s office in exceptional
circumstances and declared Congress would run for an extra 20 days this year. So instead of shutting up
shop for 2025 on December 9th, his decree meant would also sit from December 10th to 30th in order to move
forward on matters deemed essential and/or emergency by the executive.
Why smart? For one thing, it really annoys his opposition but more importantly, he gets to take advantage of
his newly won power and seat count in Congress. This week saw the arrival of the new congressional make-
up and it’s the first time Milei’s LLA party have had the potential get law projects upvoted without making
deep concessions and using the momentum built to push through six issues deemed of emergency
importance by his government. They include subjects that matter a great deal to Argentina such as the 2026
Budget a law project to prohibit planned budget deficits (that would be quite a thing), new labour laws and a
reform of the penal code. All well and good for a country that’s elected its leadership and now given him a
mandate to push hard on his reforms, but what most matters us on the outside looking at mining in
Argentina is that (23)…
“…the Government stated Javier Milei has sent a proposed amendment to the Glaciers Law to
Congress.”
We expected Milei to move on this issue quickly, as noted in the IKN860 Regional Politics section of
November 16th, “Argentina: Glacier law on deck”. Here’s how that note ended:
“Therefore, the Glacier Law amendment will be one of the first law projects out the gate once the new
Congress is sworn in, mid-December. Hopefully they can get some work done before Argentina goes off
on its national five week vacation, starting Christmas and continuing on the beaches of Mardel or Punta
del Este in January.”
In fact the speed Milei is showing on this law project is a surprise even to this desk, as I honestly thought we
may see some action but not a move to debate, get a final vote and the law on his desk before the end of
the year. As for its contents, that’s part of the debate and ongoing but we know there are at least two big
subjects in the law bill which we cover via more translation from the same report linked above…
“The Executive is looking to pass the law during the end-year Congressional extension sessions to
reduce the protected zones around the water sources.”
“…the initiative is looking to strengthen the role of provincial authorities in environmental impact
evaluation…”
…in other words, the two measures we expected after listening to what Mining Secretary (Minister) Luis
Lucero had to say on the subject in the wake of Milei’s October election win, this from IKN858 at the time:
“The Forbes interview also asked Mining Secretary Lucero about the challenges still facing the mining
industry and he answered by noting two bottlenecks. Firstly, some provincial laws are strict on the
21

amount of work that must be given by mining projects to local people and companies (manpower, supply
chain, etc) and mining companies often feel hamstrung with the lack of competition or availability for key
contracts. He says his government will work to try and relax those laws, on a province-by-province basis.
Secondly, the infamous Glacier Law is still on the books and mining companies continue to lobby for a
relaxation in those laws to allow easier permitting and development in high Andean zones (e.g. McEwen
Mining’s Los Azules, or Glencore’s Pachón). So it’s fair to say that even with the big win and the high
likelihood of an expanded RIGI, the Milei government will work in mining’s favour to make the sector as
attractive as possible for FDI.”
With all that said, the big question is whether it will work; Are we going to see the pro-mining amendment/s
to the current Glacier Law get pushed through and make it to the books? The answer is probably, not
definitely and even with pro-Milei bloc in both lower and upper houses greatly expanded it’s probably going
to need some horse-trading to get through.
Colombia: The 2026 election field and the recent Invamer opinion poll
We’re slightly late to the subject of the voter opinion poll compiled by one of Colombia’s most recognized
pollster companies, Invamer, and published at the start of this month, but only because I originally decided
to let the information slide as it’s not directly mining related. However, after witnessing the way in which the
outside world seems to think another right wing victory in its upcoming Presidential and Congressional
elections is a near-certainty we’re going to take on a couple of the datapoints and add a “hey, not so fast” to
the debate. But let’s set the case out carefully, as this desk also considers “the right” to be favourite for the
upcoming election and said as much in IKN860 dated November 16th under the title “Colombia: The next big
election in South America”. That was our first primer note on this very important regional election, here’s a
quote from that day:
“…we expect to see another right shift, in the same way we’ve seen from a list of countries recently.”
However, that’s not the same as our firm conviction that José Antonio Kast would sweep to an easy win in
Colombia, favourite doesn’t mean it’s a lock and I’ve been wrong enough times about South American
elections to know this one shouldn’t be taken for granted. Which brings me to the reason for today’s note, as
the blithely confident assumptions I’ve been reading from the mining sector about this election do not sit full
and square with the poll results from what is the first real temperature check of this election process. If you
feel so inclined you can check out the full Invamer poll PDF here (24) and there’s plenty for fellow political
junkies to chew on, here I’m going to limit to a couple of data points. First this, the screenshot the
presidential candidates with their current voter intention:
Notes:
 Count ‘em up, that’s 30 mugshots and if you include the six mentioned in “other” by those interviewed,
there are 36 people framed by rank and file Colombians as possible next President. In other words, this
field will see plenty of trimming and that process begins between now and late January, when candidates
22

must file petitions with at least 630,000 signatures with the national electoral authorities in order to get
on the ballot.
 Current poll leader is Iván Cepeda, he’s Petro dauphin and enjoys the advantage of being the Left wing’s
designated candidate after its internal primary.
 We mentioned the 2nd placed Abelardo De La Espriella in IKN860 as a early mover, politically he’s on the
hard right (Colombia’s Kast, if you must) and has done a good job of making himself the centre of gravity
on that side of the spectrum.
 Then comes Sergio Fajardo, your actual “establishment right” candidate. If I had to bet a dollar on this
election I’d put it on him to win at this stage, but that’s just me, it’s not a conviction pick at all, it’s very
early days and if you gave me ten dollars to bet I’d just put it in my pocket, instead.
 After those three comes a gaggle of candidates, mostly from the right wing. None of these should be
discarded at this point in time, this campaign has a high likelihood of throwing us a surprise from the
field, but it’s tough to guess as to which one (or ones) get the momentum required.
Summing up so far and laying out the likely race dynamic, we have a confirmed candidate from the left who
has a polling lead, then a whole bunch of candidate from the right who want to make it to the run-off with
Iván Cepeda and beat him to the big prize. So far so normal and reminiscent of the elections in Chile, Bolivia
and Argentina (even Peru), but now we get to the wrinkle. According to Invamer, this is what would happen
if Cepeda met current second placed candidate Abelardo De La Espriella in the run-off:
Colombians are leery of the highly confrontational Abelardo De La Espriella and his hard right politics and
according to this admittedly early poll, would make Cepeda its next President. As for a theoretical run-off
between Cepeda and Sergio Fajardo…
…that’s a tighter call, but it’s still basically a coinflip at this early stage. Therefore, it’s fair to say that the Left
wing is by no means dead and buried in this election and to add to the mystery, we should also note that
current President Petro has seen a modest improvement in his own polling numbers:
23

It’s not massive approval by any means and he’s still a net negative, but the recent result of 37.7% approval
and 56.7% disapproval for Gustavo Petro is a modest improvement on the numbers he was getting one year
or three years ago. Also, note that in general terms he’s more popular than he predecessor, ex-President
Iván Duque. Finally on the subject, if this turns into an “it’s the economy, stupid” election, we need to
recognize what’s going on in the country outside of mining and the recent news (25) that its GDP grew by
3.6% in 3q25, notably above the expected consensus of 3.2%. Also, national unemployment has dropped to
8.2%, significantly lower than the typical 10%-or-so level on which Colombia has tended to run over the
years. Those are not bad numbers and offer Petro, therefore Cepeda, substance with which to defend the last
four years of executive policy in the country
Bottom line: No hitting of Panic Buttons please, as stated in IKN860 and reiterated today I still believe the
most likely result in the 2026 Presidential election in Colombia is a return to the right wing and a country that
follows the recent trend in South America. However, there’s a difference between “likely” and “certainty”,
there’s also a clear difference to your author’s views on how this election might pan out compared to the
recent and far easier prediction on what went on in Chile in 2025. The first job here is to watch how the field
on Colombia’s political right thins out and who emerges as live options, after that we’ll have a more informed
opinion (or two). However and interestingly, it’s notable how both the hard right in Colombia and the Petro-
fans on the left will be willing the polemic Abelardo De La Espriella to do well, as it seems Cepeda’s best
chance of taking over from his mentor is to be up against someone as far away from the political centre as
possible. At this juncture, that’s the polemic De La Espriella and a highly confrontational rhetoric that his
supporters lap up, but rub against the taste of those in the political centre. Personally, I hope Sergio Fajardo
finds a way to appeal to enough Colombians to beat out the more radical right wing candidates and offers a
sensible right wing alternative to voters in the run-off. But that’s just me and my one dollar.
Market Watching
Deferred
It’s Christmas.
Conclusion
IKN865 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Tiernan is one for the notebooks and is on the cusp of trading. How it develops as 2026 becomes 2027
is another question, but it looks ready to spring from the traps and it’s not difficult to see it at C$10 and
above in the near-term.
 Have to be happy about the way Rio2 is trading, especially as I’m putting together these conclusion
bullets with the stock closing at C$3.00 and another new ATH. In fact, Monday was so bullish for our
sector that even Minera Alamos (MAI.v) put on a spurt and broke out from that annoying 45c ceiling
level.
 A final reminder that next week’s edition will be light on content, it will probably show up on Sunday
evening, too. However, the Monday evening publishing schedule is now default.
 I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to). Flash updates will be
sent if required by events. Merry Christmas to you all.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
24

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bofa-hikes-gold-price-forecast-5000oz-2026-2025-10-13/
(2) https://webview.octaweb.net/markets/news/view/1159112/
(3) https://es.octafx.com/markets/news/view/1171643/
(4) https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/commerzbank-raises-endyear-gold-price-target-ahead-of-key-fed-rate-decision-
4240364
(5) https://phemex.com/news/article/commerzbank-forecasts-gold-to-hit-4200-per-ounce-in-2026-34814
(6) https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-12-12/gold-can-hit-5000-dont-expect-see-another-65-gain-2026
(7) https://www.tiernangold.com/
(8) https://www.tiernangold.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=122211
(9) https://orecap.ca/news/orecap-to-become-19.9-shareholder-of-kirkland-lake-discoveries-corp/
(10) https://6ix.com/event/minera-alamos-looking-forward-into-2026-town-hall
(11) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JSQJ0EYbt0
(12) https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2025/12/nueva-ley-general-de-aguas-y-reformas-a-la-ley-de-aguas-nacionales
(13) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/copper-ticks-higher-supply-tightness-focus-heads-weekly-gain-2025-12-19/
(14) https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/copper-prices-forecast-to-decline-from-record-highs-in-2026
(15) https://www.herculesmetals.com/news-release/?qmodStoryID=8050971730513550
(16) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/white-house-plans-more-historic-deals-with-mining-sector-official-says-2025-12-15/
(17) https://atexresources.com/news-2025/atex-intersects-146-meters-of-2-00-cueq-at-b2b-zone-with-over-600-meters-of-results-still-
pending/
(18) https://en.mercopress.com/2025/12/20/bolivia-faces-indefinite-strike-to-protest-end-of-fuel-subsidies
(19) https://www.rigobertoparedes.com/en/the-10-most-important-questions-and-answers-of-supreme-decree-5503/
(20) https://larazon.bo/nacional/2025/12/19/mineros-decide-ir-a-la-huelga-indefinida-y-movilizacion-hasta-la-renuncia-de-paz/
(21) https://www.lahora.com.ec/economia/ecuador-esta-a-punto-de-sumar-28-viceministros-de-minas-en-seis-anos-luego-de-la-salida-
de-javier-subia-20251217-0005.html
(22) https://www.bnamericas.com/en/interviews/innovation-circularity-and-flexible-regulation-keys-for-chiles-mining-under-kasts-
leadership
(23) https://www.mineriaydesarrollo.com/noticias/2025/12/15/23215-el-gobierno-nacional-envio-al-congreso-la-nueva-ley-de-glaciares
(24) https://drive.google.com/file/d/17FU-Jqq1xHojbP8rluLAH2YnTh0r1JOW/view?pli=1
(25) https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/cn0k9rrv0qlo
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
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American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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