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The IKN Weekly
Week 864, December 14th 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, An official decision on publication days, US macro and
holiday programming, The difference between successful trades and winning trades.
Fundamental Analysis: Four Tax Loss Season trades (AE.v) (ELY.v) (OZ.v) (AMC.to).
Stocks to Follow: Overview, American Eagle (AE.v), Electrum Discovery (ELY.v), Valkea Resources (OZ.v),
Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to), Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to), Gold Royalty Corp
(GROY), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, SolGold (SOLG.l), Copper Giant (CGNT.v), Hercules Metals (BIG.v), Hot Chili
(HCH.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Eldorado Gold (EGO), Agnico Eagle (AEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kodiak Copper (KDK.v).
Regional Politics: Chile has a new President, Argentina: Vicuña makes national headlines, Mexico: The new
water law is passed and signed into law.
Market Watching: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) buys a copper mine, Part Deux.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
The trades are laid out in today’s main Fundies section, here’s a primer on the plans:
 Buying American Eagle (AE.v) as a new trade
 Buying Electrum Discovery (ELY.v) as a new trade promoted from the Watch List
 Eventually Buying Valkea Resources (OZ.v) as a new trade promoted from the Watch List, but
probably not until after Christmas
 Adding to Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to), but probably not until after Christmas
All four of these now get grouped into a new section of the Stocks to Follow table, the “Tax Loss Season
(TLS) trades. Details below.
In today’s edition
 We managed to get the news of our Top Pick Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) and its purchase of the Condestable
copper mine into the back of last week’s edition, IKN863, what with it going out late. This weekend we
have more on the deal, including the positive market reaction and some of the key numbers from the
Condestable operation. This time last week I thought RIO.to had picked itself up a bargain and a good
addition to the company, this weekend I’m sure about it. That’s down in ‘Market Watching’.
 The main fundies note this weekend lays out the plans for your author’s Tax Loss Season trade,
formalizing a batch of ideas that have gestated in recent editions, adding one other trade and putting a
timeline on he plans as well. We did something similar last year to reasonable success, this time
around I’m looking to take full advantage of this extra-bullish market backdrop and knock a few near-
term trades clean out the park.
 Regional Politics runs a second note on the Mexico Water Law as last week, it moved at lightning
speed from the Congressional approval vote to active law. It’s strange how little has been mentioned
of this issue in mining circles, as it’s an (another?) obvious negative for the mining industry in Mexico.
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 The rampant bull market for copper stocks rolls on and we’re here to document it, as well as reiterate
our warning for the potential top as 2025 becomes 2026. The Copper Basket and other spots as well.
An official decision on publication days (with apologies for the over-use of first person singular)
We’ve all noticed that I’ve missed the normal Sunday evening publication deadline for The IKN Weekly on too
many occasions in recent times and despite putting my mind to it and doing different things at this end to try
and remedy the tardiness, it’s got worse rather than better as 2025 has rolled out. Therefore, after much
deliberation and procrastination today’s the day I face facts and make a proactive decision on the problem,
so here goes:
Going forward, The IKN Weekly will be published and sent
to subscribers on Monday evenings, Americas time.
It’s not the perfect situation and I’d much prefer to get the Weekly wrapped up and sent on Sundays as per
the last 16 years or so, but personal circumstances have changed and while technically possible, more often
than not in the last few months I’ve found myself in a position on Sunday evenings when I know that if I
push and rush it I can send at the normal time, but simply don’t want to do that. I feel I owe you some sort
of explanation for this change, so without going into deep detail and putting my personal life in the spotlight
for all to examine and laugh about, there are two main thrusts to the change:
1) I’m older. I was in my early 40s when this publication began, I’m now 58 and like it or not, you get to a
point when you realize how age makes a difference to one’s productivity. Once upon a time, sitting
down at 8am on a Sunday morning with Excel sheets done and notes in place and then putting in a 16
hour writing shift was a normal thing, these days it’s an exception.
2) I have two young children. My first set of kids from my previous relationship are now adults, but life
has blessed me with a second opportunity at fatherhood and to cut a long story short, my priorities
have changed and they’re going to have a daddy seven days a week, not just when it suits me.
It probably goes without saying, but anyone deciding to unsubscribe from the service on this change gets my
full and sincere understanding.
US macro and holiday programming
A quick look back at the FOMC, which did as expected and cut a quarter point off the base rate. And a quick
look back at POTUS47, who also did as expected (1)
“Trump slams Fed’s third-straight rate cut as ‘too small,’ saying he wishes it was twice as large”
The market duly responded (see the Dollar Index (DXY) ten-day chart right and take a wild guess when
Trump spoke up) and for extra measure, when asked by the WSJ about the shortlist for the next Fed head,
after speaking highly of both Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh made it clear that part of the job would be
parroting the Oval Office (2):
But whoever his choice is, he said the pick should seek his insight on interest rates.
“Typically, that’s not done anymore. It used to be done routinely. It should be done,” Trump told the
Journal. “It doesn’t mean—I don’t think he should do exactly what we say. But certainly we’re — I’m a
smart voice and should be listened to.”
Trump added that he would like to see interest rates at 1 percent, “and maybe lower than that” this
time next year.
“We should have the lowest rate in the world,” he said.
The above is presented just in case you were wondering why gold did this as from Wednesday afternoon:
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The goldbug world is full of hyperbolic buzzphrases such as “running it hot” and “dollar debasement” and
while my natural reaction is to shun such overly dramatic broad brush strokes, there’s no escaping the fact
that behind the noisy headlines is fundamentally sound reasoning for the run in gold and most of the metals
complex.
Now for a quick look forward to the main event on the US macro calendar this week. We’re used to getting
BLS Employment Reports on the first Friday of each month, the US public sector strike is still affecting timing
but better late than never, this coming Tuesday December 16th we should get the November report and
according to our preferred and trustworthy source (3), “The consensus is for 50,000 jobs added, and for the
unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.” Bill McBride also reminds us that the October data isn’t going
to be compiled by continuing with “There were 119,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment
rate was at 4.4%.” That’s the last reading we had and I’d expect there will be as many eyes looking at
revisions as there are at the headline numbers.
Switching gears, here’s a sketch of what to expect from The IKN Weekly for the next four weeks because as
per normal, we let our foot off the pedal a little around Christmas. However, the way Christmas Day and New
Year’s Day fall midweek this time around means there’s only going to be one weekend of reduced coverage.
Here’s how The IKN Weekly should work over the 2025/2026 festive season:
 IKN865 next weekend, week of December 21st: Normal edition*.
 IKN866 dated week of December 28th: Bare bones only edition, with the updated numbers for
followed stocks and perhaps a few comments, but it will be lighter than normal*.
 IKN867 dated week of January 4th: We wrap up the year that was and look to the year to come,
with the introduction of the new Copper Basket, Producer Basket and TinyCaps List component
stocks.
 IKN868 dated week of January 11th: Back to normal* scheduling.
And while we’re on the subject, I’ll probably do the same near the dates but allow me to be one of the first to
wish you a very merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year, may health and good cheer be yours for the
holiday season and all through 2026.
*Whatever normal means round these parts. I have no idea.
The difference between successful trades and winning trades
The re-focus on the bunch of Tax Loss Selling trades in today’s main fundies section, in which we seek to
emulate the reasonable successes seen in the trades we ran this time last year, got me thinking about the
way personal levels of satisfaction in a trade often differ from their results. I’ve picked three examples of
trades from the last year to illustrate:
1) Just before Christmas 2024 (IKN814 dated December 22nd) I called buy on seven trades, a list that
included three designed as near-term flips to take advantage of the Tax Loss Selling (TLS) window. They
were Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Barrick (B) and Ero Copper (ERO). As things turned out, the ASCU.to
made a 20.9% profit, the B trade 16.3% and the ERO trade a loss of 8.9% so, blended together at level
stakes and pre-commish, that's a 9.4% profit*. So despite the miss on ERO, the TLS trades did just fine
and we managed to flip a reasonable little profit in what was, at the time, a very different market to the
one we have today. In fact it was more than that, ASCU was the highest conviction trade and carried
more of my money, but that's a side issue.
2) A little over a month later, IKN819 dated January 26th 2025, the main fundies section called buy on
AbraSilver (ABRA.to), at the time still a Dot Vee company. At the time a C$2.78 stock, I went on to buy
twice for a cost average of C$2.73, made it a decent sized trade, rode the silver tide to August and sold it
for a pre-commish profit of 108% in August. It was a decent sized trade, a double-plus and in monetary
terms made a significant difference to my 2025 trading performance.
To narrow it down to a straight comparative, I’m going to focus on Arizona Sonoran from the TLS picks and
can state with all honesty that even though I sold those ASCU shares for C$1.68 and they're now C$4.57, I
consider it a successful trade. However and with an equal dose of hindsight, I cringe in horror for having sold
ABRA when I did and despite it making good money, cannot ignore that it’s now trading at C$10.76 and
closing in on a double from my exit price. In other words…
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 ASCU was a successful trade, it did what I wanted from a specific situation and returned the planned
profit. However, it’s a stretch to call it a winning trade when you leave that much money on the table.
 ABRA was a winning trade, but was a failure because a key part of the plan was to use the stock to
ride silver higher. That worked for a while but then I got off too early because my call on the silver
market was wrong.
How wrong? This wrong:
In mitigation and for the record, I’ve never made a secret of the fact I suck at silver stocks. I’ll also note that
I did manage to call the silver breakout back in early 2024 and enjoyed the run it put in from that point, but
there’s no hiding the fact that during the Northern summer months, I made a decision between gold and
silver exposure, went for gold because I thought there would be better risk-adjusted upside and the last few
weeks have delivered its damning verdict. For the first part of 2025 (Area 1 above) favouring gold over silver
was the right call, then as Q4 began (Area 2 above) it was still possible to defend a preference for exposure
to gold stocks even as silver-the-metal began to out-perform gold, but the last three weeks or so are
something quite different. Check out the market commentariat and you’ll find plenty of voices that called
silver moving through U$50/oz and up through U$60/oz as well. I was not one of them and that makes a
difference, as it’s one thing to recognize ABRA as one of the best silver stories in out little world of juniors,
another to misread one of its main price drivers and sell too early.
3) Anyway, at the start of this intro rant I promised you
three examples of the difference between successful
trades and winning trades, so the third one is Gold
Royalty Corp (GROY).
As a stopped clock gets it right twice a day, so this desk
can, from time to time, run a successful trade that’s also a
moneyspinner. The personally satisfying ones make the
right call for the right reasons that finish with a significant
cash profit on the other side and while the GROY trade isn’t
the most money made in any single trade, I have no doubt
about it being the best thing I did at market in 2025. And
with that unabashed horn-toot done, we move to the plans
for a Merry Christmas of trading a profitable New Year.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Four Tax Loss Season trades
Today is the day to formalize matters. We bite the bullet and make the official shift from Sunday to Monday
for publication, we lay out the expected 2025 holiday schedule and most importantly, we gather what have
so far been a disparate bag of ideas for Canadian Tax Loss Selling (TLS) season trades and put them into a
neat and tidy basket.
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As noted in today’s intro section (above) last year in IKN813 I bought or added seven stocks at once, with
three of them the same type of TLS trades proposed today. This time around it’s going to be a mini-basket of
four stocks and while each one has its own trade wrinkle, they are all based around the idea of picking up a
bargain due to selling in December and seeing them bounce as the TLS pressure is relieved into the New
Year. The four trades are:
 American Eagle (AE.v): BUYING NOW
 Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): BUYING NOW
 Valkea Resources (OZ.v): WILL BUY SOON
 Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): WILL ADD SOON
So that’s two trades happening next week, one new purchase at some point around or just after Christmas,
then one addition at the same time around or just after Christmas. Now for a few notes on each of the
trades, be they happening this week or proposed for after Christmas and as three of the four are well
documented on our Stocks to Follow table already, this shouldn’t take too long. Here we go:
American Eagle (AE.v): Buying the indifference
The working title for this mini-report on American Eagle (AE.v) was “buying the hate” but as the weekend
drew on, that felt too strong. The sentiment was on the right track though, so in the end it gets called
“indifference” as there’s no doubt AE.v has been left behind in the copper exploreco market, looked over by
an audience that’s found sexier and more speculative price gains in trades for its copper risk cash.
As it’s the new trade idea of the four, here’s an overview of its capital structure:
Shares out: 172.877m
Options: 19.3m
Warrants: 0.469m
Fully diluted: 192.646m
Current share price: C$0.51
Market Cap: C$88.17m
Approx cash per S/O: C$0.20c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated, forex CAD$1 = USD 0.72
Considering plenty of that 173m S/O total is held by strategic backers (e.g. South 32 19.9%, Teck 12.9%)
and warrants are few and far between, that’s not a bad structure and with 20c/share of cash backing it up,
the leverage to copper is certainly there in theory. It’s also a TLS trade that only occurred to me very
recently, while watching this webinar (4) mentioned last weekend in IKN863. That featured company CEO
Anthony Moreau and company geologist Neil Prowse and though we’d just had the first drill assay from its
current program at NAK announced, the video was more like a preview for upcoming newsflow, as well as a
reminder of the strong cash position at AE.v (CEO Moreau mentioning “balance sheet” more times than even
I tend to do, which is rare). It suddenly
occurred to me that AE ticked nearly all the
boxes required for a TLS trade, as even though
it’s been flat for most of the year the real price
change happened when it fell off a cliff way
back in January, on the back of drill assay
results that had been talked up by one and all
but ultimately left the world nonplussed.
As the year has rolled out, many of AE peers
have moved ahead and posted good, even great
price gains and left this previous hot copper
stock behind. Out of fashion and with plenty of
people holding stock all year, AE is likely to see
sellers show up for TLSD purposes but, with the
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timing of its current drill program and a stock price that’s shown clear resilience all year at the current 50c-or-
so level (Friday close 51c), we’re unlikely to see a big dip lower than today’s levels. If 45c shows then all
good, but I see no reason to wait any longer and 50c-or-abouts on the volume we can expect is enough.
Particularly as the news has already started to flow. CEO Moreau has dropped a ton of hints that assay NRs
will come thick and fast in the next few weeks and sure enough, this drill assay NR showed up last week (5)
that returned with a headline hit “91 m of 1.53% CuEq within 167 m of 1.06% CuEq” from NAK’s most
prolific South zone, as well as two other decent holes. Here are the bullet points from last week’s NR:
 NAK25-57 intersected 167 m of 1.06% Copper Equivalent (CuEq), including 91 m of 1.53% CuEq, within 909 m averaging 0.41%
CuEq from surface; this extends the NAK25-46 discovery more than 100 m west.
 NAK25-52 extends the high-grade NAK25-48 discovery by over 200 metres to the east, returning 85 m of 0.92% CuEq.
 Holes -57 and -52, together, extend the east-west strike length of the zone originally defined by NAK25-48 (77 m of 1.78% CuEq
within 140 m averaging 1.23% CuEq) and NAK25-46 (97 m of 0.89% CuEq) to almost 500 metres.
Along with the NR came another discussion webinar with Moreau and Prowse (6) which, along with a
discussion of the hole and an update of the geological interpretation of NAK (they now like the stock zone,
we’ll see about that) made no bones about the upcoming newsflow and that the two recent drill assay NRS
are the first of many. Once again, the only real negative for near-term price appreciation in the show was the
decision by management to make 2026 a drilling year and not look to form a 43-101 compliant resource until
2027 earliest. Adding to our TLS thesis was the way the market reacted to the news, as seen in this near-
term chart:
Initially, the reaction was one of a stock that had just pleased the market with good news at the right time,
but no sooner had it popped that sellers showed up and pushed AE.v back from whence it came. That’s
exactly what you’d expect from a company with sellers looking for exit liquidity and is less a reflection on the
good drill assay, more on straight market dynamics.
Bottom line: It’s the combination of factors that point to AE as a good TLS alternative in December 2025:
 The poor showing for its shares in 2025, trapping holders as from the first month of the year and never
managing to stage a recovery.
 Its status as a forgotten play on copper, out of favour with an investment community that has shifted
its focus to other copper exploreco plays. At some point AE will be ready to play catch-up
 The upcoming newsflow, which should come with plenty of noise and offers plenty of opportunity to re-
gain marker radar and momentum.
 And though I have mocked it slightly today, the strong cash position and balance sheet are clear
advantages for AE.v. The company has more than enough money for all its plans in 2026 and could
probably get through most of 2027 without raising more capital.
In the wrap-up to IKN863 last week, one of the bullets was “The more I think about American Eagle (AE.v),
the more tempted I am to add immediately and make it my first Tax Loss Selling rebound trade of the
season. In fact, I’m kind of sheepish that it didn’t occur to me before, it feels as though the trade set-up has
been hiding in plain sight. It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve broken my own rule on a temporary basis and
held 21 stocks for a while, rather than 20.” This is exactly the sentiment that I’m acting upon today, I see no
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reason not to use up the last dregs of my thin personal portfolio cash position and get as exposed as possible
to this market as we move into 2026. This is a near-term trade plan, if and when AE.v pops and give me a
nice percentage win in the next few weeks I won’t think twice about taking the profits. I’m also aware of mty
own nerves about what copper-the-metal might do as from January (see The Copper Basket today and the
last couple of editions) so if sector weakness shows up, I’d sell this in a flash. That said, I like the risk/reward
balance in AE.v today and will move to buy some share this very week, in a perfect world I’ll find someone
who’ll buy them back off me very soon.
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): Cheap and ready for news
A stock we’ve watched for most of the year via the TinyCaps List section and more recently on the main
Stocks to Follow Watch List, the 2025 YTD chart for Electrum Discovery Corp (ELY.v) shows how it entered
the year with plenty of good momentum and, but duly fell flat on its face when the early and rather
speculative drills it put into its Timok East project came up dusters.
Since then ELY has rumbled along and flatlined in the 6c – 8c range you see on that chart, the team went
back to more baseline work on its projects and do the lower cost work required on early stage projects, it
also raised a modest amount of capital. As a result, ELY fell off nearly everyone’s radar this year, but unlike
so many other tinycap stocks that run up and then dump on failed news, this company is far from broken and
deserves a second chance. We’ve been waiting for the company to announce a move up in public activity and
tThat came to pass on December 2nd, when ELY in this corporate update (7), we learned of its near-term
and medium-term plans for its main projects, namely the Timok East copper/gold porphyry target and the
relatively nearby Novo Tlamino gold/silver project, both in Serbia.
The plans for Timok East include geophysics and widening the exploration and mapping footprint and that’s
fair enough, the small company on a big project should keep things manageable. But the reason to like the
news came from Novo Tlamino, as it includes a 4,200m infill and step-out drill program and this bullet point
on timing:
 The drill program is expected to be completed in Q1 2026.
In other words, we’re about to move into a period when ELY delivers potentially market moving news. Of
course it’s all about backing a drill play and they are inherently high risk, the starting price is good and even
an interesting-not-great hit would be enough to start some momentum. It’s also after a year of grunt work on
the projects, which means they’ll have a better idea of where to stick the drills. Let’s also add in the start of
President/CEO Elena Clarici’s comment: “We had a very busy autumn. With geophysics surveys ongoing
across our both projects and drilling planning for Novo Tlamino, we are preparing the ground for even busier
start of 2026.” Sounds promising.
We moved ELY to the Watch List with a view to a trade and didn’t buy immediately due to its TLS potential.
With just under 99m shares out and a 6.5c share price, ELY’s C$6.43m market cap is gives the leverage you
require for the risk you’ll incur. This isn’t going to be a big position, but with more interesting news in the
pipeline and the TLS season offering the cheap entry, now’s the time to put at least a little of my money
where my mouth is. This trade will be open this time next weekend.
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Valkea Resources (OZ.v): the Finland neighbour play
Along with ELY.v, this the other TLS trade idea that’s already made it to the Watch List. Although we did get
a NR last week that tried to drum up some interest last week with some ho-hum drill results (8) from its main
Paana project, but the reason for this speculation is a pure and simple neighbour play on the prospect that
Agnico Eagle (AEM) moves on the region and makes it the next growth project in its pipeline. We’d expect
AEM to move directly on the larger market cap companies such as Rupert Resources and our own preferred
play Aurion (AU.v), maybe even B2Gold but that would be for more than its Finland angle. However, any
M&A action would certainly reflect quickly on the smaller landholders in the zone and that’s where Valkea
comes into the equation. This company moved up our radar of potential trades when it sold off sharply at the
start of Q4, the YTD chart showing its new bargain
entry point. At this price the stock could double
without testing long-term trading ranges and that
would be more than enough to offer us a profitable
little near-term trade and once again, the emphasis
here we be on “little”: My main WWAD (What Will
Agnico Do) trade is and will remain Aurion (AU.v)
and my interest in OZ.v wouldn’t be strong enough
to open this trade if it weren’t for its recent price
drop. There’s no deep philosophy for this one, it’s
“buy low, sell high, pay for the turkey and presents”.
However, please note the actual purchase won’t
happen immediately as in this case, we may see
some more selling between now and the end of the
year and as such, I prefer to wait until Christmas is behind us and will buy in the final days before 2026. It’s
still an obvious TLS trade at the current price, but the potential of a deeper bargain in the next two weeks is
there as well.
Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): An awful 2025 and a PEA to come
Of the four featured in this segment today, AMC.to is the most obvious and also the upcoming trade that’s
been clearly flagged in previous editions. Bought as a trade after its deep sell-off, the idea started well
enough but when AMC announced as part of its 3q25 financials results literature that it was putting back the
timing of the #1 catalyst, the PEA, to 1q26 instead of the expected 4q25…
The Company expects to deliver a preliminary economic assessment (“PEA”) by the end of Q1, 2026,
following the completion of additional metallurgical test work.
…the selling began again and my plans for a quick profit before the end of the year were scuppered. The
decision to put back the PEA one quarter opened up the company stock to more direct TLS selling and with a
price chart like this one (right), that shift in news
timing has left AMC.to wide open to TLS headwinds.
We commented on this move in IKN860 dated
November 18th and the Market Watching note that
day, “Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to) 3q25 financials”:
“…if the stock gets hammered during peak TLS season
(around Christmas), there’s always the potential to
add more and play the upswing in 1q26. The company
has more than enough cash to get through the PEA
process and there’s always the bonus card of
Sugarloaf Peak and the ongoing drill program offering
up something that catches the market’s attention.”
As it turns out, we did get initial drill results from the mentioned Sugarloaf Peak project, its second string
behind Kay, on December 2nd (9) and summing them up in as few words as possible, they were “okay not
great” wide reasonable widths but low grades of 0.3 g/t gold and 0.2 g/t gold that will elicit a “Yeah that’ll
run” from project engineers, but are not the type of grades that excites us guys up in the bleachers.
However, be clear that Sugarloaf Peak is a sideshow and the main event here is the PEA at Kay. As laid out in
our previous analyses on the stock, most notably IKN856 dated October 19th 2025 and the main
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Fundamental Analysis note “Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): Why we own a loser”, the resource update at Kay
didn’t impress a market looking for more from the numbers but at the new price deck for gold and what we
expect to be a reasonably low capex hurdle, this project has been discarded too quickly. Here’s a segment
from the conclusion of that IKN856 note, by way of a reminder after having run plenty of numbers that day:
“Largely berated and criticized in late June for the lower than expected grades, the metals price
move since then has more than made up for the grade drop and we can expect AMC to deliver some
impressive economic numbers that are likely to surprise the market. Even our highly conservative
criteria justify a share price recovery at the current metals prices, and I’m sure we’ll see more
optimized items from the company to make them stand out further.”
That’s where we are today, about to hit the main TLS period and with a company stock that was more widely
held than the average junior at the start of the year and a horror story of a price chart. Not only is it an
obvious candidate for selling in the next couple of weeks, but we’ve already seen evidence of “dump it”
selling in the last couple of weeks, as AMC has started moving up with the field on a couple of occasions, only
to get whacked back down by rafts of selling. Chances are high that more sales are in the pipeline, so the
firm plan here is to wait until Christmas and Boxing Day are behind us and then pick up the bargain shares.
From there, with selling pressure reduced and the looming PEA that is likely to impress the market more than
most expect, we then get our the rebound and the near-term trade win in 1q26. That’s the plan, at least.
Stocks to Follow
At first sight it might not look like a great week for the Stocks to Follow list, with just eight of the 20 covered
stocks returning week-over-week gains (RIO.to, ARG.to, MARI.to, WRLG.v, WDO.to, RPX.v, PGDC.v,
MENE.v), another eight showing losses (MAI.v, GROY, AU.v, AMC.to, SRL.v, LMS.v, XXIX.v, OCI.v) and the
remaining four unchanged (MOON.v, MIRL.cse, OZ.v, ELY.v). However, the basic headcount doesn’t do
justice to what was a strong week for the list and while strictly speaking Patagonia Gold leads the field on the
week (PGDC.v up 12.9%), the true standout is our Top Pick Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to up 10.7%), which blew away
concerns about the purchase of Condestable with an impressive open market performance on the week. the
Rio2 move got backing from other stocks at the upper end of the table, e.g. Amerigo (ARG.to up 6.4%), West
Red Lake (WRLG.v up 6.2%) and even Wesdome (WDO.to up 5.1%) got in on the act at last, in fact of the
bigger stocks to only real disappointment was the penny dropped by Minera Alamos (MAI.v)…though we’d
kind of got used to that one sucking hard.
Please note the added colour code to the table below, as from this week the light green separates trades
envisaged to take advantage of the Tax Loss Selling (TLS) season. They are the four mentioned above in
today’s main fundies section and we’ll keep this segment colour for at least the next six to eight weeks,
depending on how the near-term fliptrades get on.
We’re at 20 open positions but with the addition of American Eagle as a proposed trade, the count is now up
to 21. That’s one over our self-imposed maximum and with a handful of near-term trades to run, we’re
probably going to stay above the limit for a few weeks. Seventeen of our twenty stocks are in the green and
three are in the red.
9

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$2.69 236.3% Re-rated to new $4.13 tgt
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v HOLD C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.42 100.0% $0.70 tgt, selling early 2026
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$4.13 168.2% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$11.31 270.8% Quality Cu dev, FS due
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$4.09 192.1% 2nd target U$5 in 2026
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.88 20-Jul-25 C$1.03 17.0% re-rate trade, $1.44tgt
Wesdome Gold WDO.to BUYING C$22.42 30-Nov-25 C$22.56 0.6% New trade, buyout tgt
Blue Moon MOON.v BUYING C$4.18 30-Nov-25 C$4.40 5.3% New trade, LT view
Aurion Res AU.v BUY C$1.07 21-Sep-25 C$1.13 5.6% Agnico will buy more Finland
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.12 8-Sep-24 C$0.155 29.2% Added more Sep & Oct'25
Arizona Metals AMC.to HOLD C0.66 5-Oct-25 C$0.57 -13.6% will add as TLS trade
American Eagle AE.v BUYING C$0.51 14-Dec-25 C$0.51 0.0% BUYING AS TLS TRADE
Valkea Res OZ.v HOLD C$0.26 9-Nov-25 C$0.275 5.8% moving to TLS trade
Electrum Disc ELY.v BUYING C$0.055 9-Nov-25 C$0.065 18.2% moving to TLS trade
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.17 112.5% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.195 2.6% proj.generator, Organullo spec
XXIX Metal XXIX.v STR BUY C$0.11 27-Aug-25 C$0.12 9.1% v good PEA Oct'25
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.085 41.7% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.175 775.0% Rio Negro gold developer
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.175 -61.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
Minera Alamos MAI.v Aug'25 C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% lightened overweight position
Surge Copper SURG.v Sep'25 $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.215 104.8% took profits, good result
Provenance Gold PAU.cse Oct'25 C$0.15 27-Aug-25 C$0.265 76.7% took profits, good result
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered stocks:
American Eagle Gold Corp (AE.v): BUYING. As seen above in today’s main fundies section, I’m a buyer
of AE shares with a view to a near-term fliptrade that takes advantage of the Canadian Tax Loss Selling
season. In this particular case, I’m not hanging around as there’s unlikely to be much more price downside,
so AE will be an open position as from next weekend.
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): BUYING. As seen above in today’s main fundies section, I’m also a buyer of
ELY shares to take advantage of the Canadian Tax Loss Selling season. This moves from Watch List to the
10

main reco’s section, in the light green TLS sub-sector. In the same style as AE, I can’t see much more
downside to this current 6.5c price so there’s no need to wait until after Christmas, it’s also a thinly traeed
microcap so may need time and patience to buy a few at a reasonable entry point. This way, I get a full two
weeks to fish for sub-7c prices.
Valkea Resources (OZ.v): WILL BUY SOON. As seen above in today’s main fundies section, this will also
be one of the Canadian Tax Loss Selling season trades and in the same light green sub-sector, but in the
case of OZ.v I’m going to wait a while longer because it’s possible we’ll see even lower prices before the
rebound begins.
Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): WILL ADD SOON. The final proposed trade of the four, I already own
some and plan to buy more to take advantage of the Canadian Tax Loss Selling and an deep bargain
basement entry point, I’m going to wait a while longer before adding. Last week’s trading was indicative of a
company under the TLS kosh, its rally cut short by a new raft of sellers and
Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v): Unchanged on the week, those of you considering coming in on this trade
should be clear that MOON is likely to go through quiet trading patches such as the one just gone.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to): It may not have been headline-making stuff, indeed as this five-day
comparative chart with GDx shows it wasn’t anything
more or less than lockstep with the median, but that’s
all I really ask of WDO shares at this stage and seeing
them as “market perform” after the company’s poor
November is an indication we’re buying at the right
time.
I look upon December as this trade’s prelude period, the
real reasons to like WDO should begin in January when
the company delivers a decent 4q25 production report
and at that point, with a Kiena finally showing its
potential, this company is game on as an M&A target.
And what could possibly go wrong?
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): Along with the Rio2 news, the spate of NRS from GROY last Monday was the
other event that got me to use the edit button. We knew GROY would drop on the announcement of its
upsized bought deal (which closed successfully and raised its expected U$103.5m in gross proceeds) easily
covering the U$70m ticket price of the Pedra Branca acquisition.
I tuned into the Conference Call (related corporate presentation on this link (10)) and have three takeaways:
1) Only one analyst on the Q&A (and that was the Wainwright guy, so hardly a high level reputable
shop). So despite its excellent year and all that Tether thing, GROY is still likely flying under the radar
of most of Wall St’s suited and booted.
2) According to Garofalo, the acquisition is 10% accretive to NAV. That’s reasonable.
11

3) Both ConfCall and presentation told us that GROY is now debt free, which means they’s used most of
the excess from the bought deal to pay off what was left of the revolving debt outstanding.
Don’t underestimate that final point: We previously estimated that at U$19.3m after the recent payments, our
new assumption is zero (chart below left). That’s a good thing, also good is the quarterly savings it implies as
the debt servicing has been running in the U$2.2m to U$2.3m per quarter range (below right). That won’t
drop to zero, but it won’t be far off and that means money that flows to the bottom line.
GROY: Bank debt (revolver)
Bottom line: With U$75m in untapped revolver and up to U$100m worth of financial reach, the only negative
from the news last week is that Garofalo sounds like he wants to get out there and do more deals. Personally
I wish he’d stick to his word at the start of the year and keep his mediocre hands away from the controls, but
with that said I have to admit this Pedra Branca acquisition looks reasonable and at a fair price. So no harm
done this time, but his track record is so poor that with a large chunk of cash at his disposial, we might not
be as fortunate next time. Meanwhile, does last week add or subtract from the chances of a buyout move for
GROY (from ELE.v or other)? It’s probably a wash on balance, there’s no reason to believe this deal provides
any extra moat to an aggressive buyer of GROY shares (Tether).
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): The liquid-ish assets tracking table puts OCI’s backbone of value at 8.5c this weekend:
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 10.72 0.51 5.47 2.2
ARIC.v 7.39 0.65 4.80 1.9
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.45 1.88 0.8
XXIX.v 23.637 0.12 2.84 1.1
AUME.v 42.75 0.08 3.42 1.4
MERG.v 1.025 0.74 0.76 0.3
MERG warrant 0.5125 0.29 0.15 0.1
ZIGY.cse 4.942 0.365 1.80 0.7
subtotal 21.11 8.5
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 21.14 8.5c
At 248.332 S/O
That’s right on its are price too, after a bunch of sellers showed up late on Friday afternoon and dumped
2.61m shares on the market. Given that market circumstance, keeping the drop to 8.5c wasn’t a bad
performance for such a small and illiquid issue. In component stock news, the big event (aside AUME ringing
the opening bell on Thursday) was the news that Teck was moving on MERG s a strategic partner, taking a
9.9% position in the newly revamped company. Many echoes of the Teck strategy at American Eagle here;
same type of target, same location, same people (Greig et al) and Teck apparently employing its same
scattergun approach toward explorecos in Canada. We’ll see if that changes when the Anglo merger is
consummated.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): On Tuesday, LMS announced (11) it was moving forward with the spin-out of two of
its Peru-based exploration assets, specifically the Auquis and Para copper projects, into the new “Latin
Explore” vehicle. Current shareholders of LMS get shares in the spin-out at an approximate ratio of one new
share for every ten LMS held, so that’s “free money” (haha) coming the way of your author and others. The
12
888.9 139.9
864.71
130.01 246.9
746.42 475.42 29.42 321.62 49.52 460.42
0
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 tse52q4
U$m GROY: Debt servicing costs, per qtr
source: company filings
492.0 823.0 304.0
418.0
487.1 509.1 661.2 881.2 502.2 632.2 292.2
U$m
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4 1.2 1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25 3q25
source: company filings

spinout makes sense I suppose, as LMS is getting zero-dollars-zero-cents worth of value from its Peru
projects at present and in this way, setting them up in a newco and adding some working capital, they can
be moved forward and hopefully attract some attention from a prospective JV partner.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Another stellar week for our core copper producer trade, as ARG made your
author look way smarter than he is last week when announcing this (12):
“…on December 9, 2025, Amerigo’s Board of Directors declared a performance dividend in the
amount of Cdn$0.05 per share, payable on January 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of
December 17, 2025.”
The last reviews we ran on the company were IKN855 (the 3q25 production numbers) and IKN858 (the 3q25
results) and in those notes, we forecast the likelihood that ARG would raise its quarterly dividend from 3c to
4c Canadian, then went on to suppose it would pay a performance bonus dividend at the end of 2025. So we
didn’t have to wait until the very end, but the 5c payment is right in the ballpark
Finally, we note that on the weekend of IKN855, ARG.to was a C$2.80 stock. Here’s a price chart from then
until now, with the closing words of the ARG note that day.
Is it too much to ask to see some chunky share buybacks in December? Seriously, I wish they were all this
easy.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Is there a case for adding MAI to
the TLS list? Not really, because despite its clear
underperformance it’s still up for the year and unless the
holder bought on one of the spikes, it’s not going to qualify.
That said, the exit strategy we’re employing is similar to the
four TLS trade plans, with a bump expected for MAI in early
2026 when the market sees the cash flow numbers from Pan
and does its number sums and math thingies.
The Copper Basket
After fifty weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 111.98% to level stakes:
13

company ticker price 1/1/25 Sharesout(m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 765.28 25.50 268.5%
2 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 1061.73 6.47 292.1%
3 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 302.76 862.87 2.85 99.3%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 174.6 815.38 4.67 217.7%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 626.98 3.69 94.2%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 250.605 571.38 2.28 208.1%
7 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 486.17 3.90 90.2%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 175.07 213.59 1.22 82.1%
9 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 289.289 185.14 0.64 16.4%
10 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 136.924 139.66 1.02 61.9%
11 Andina Copper ANDC.v 0.16 211.085 111.88 0.53 231.3%
12 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 172.877 88.17 0.51 -26.1%
13 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 143.08 68.68 0.480 52.4%
14 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 304.79 36.57 0.12 9.1%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.622 17.63 0.495 -17.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg 111.98%
An interesting week and a Copper Basket list that returned some wildly varying results, with a tiny end result
of just 0.46% added to the basket average, with several big winners all-but cancelled out by the major loser
and its friends. In total there were ten week-over-week
upmoves (ATX.v, TMQ.to, REG.v, ASCU.to, FDY.to, The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
140%
BIG.v, AE.v, HCH.v, KBX.cse, CGNT.v), with four of
120%
those big moves at Copper Giant (CGNT.v up 31.5%), 100%
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to up 12.0%), Hot Chili (HCH.v 80%
up 11.9%) and Regulus (REG.v up 11.4%). With no 60%
unchanged stocks, that means five losers (SOOLG.l, 40%
20%
ALDE.v, ECU.v, XXIX.v, ADNC.v) and while Andina and
0%
Aldebaran didn’t help the basket cause with 7% drops,
-20%
the main event to the downside was SolGold (SOLG.l
down 18.4%, as one of the major winners for 2025
came off its highs as the friendly deal price with its
Chinese suitor was fixed. So let’s note that without the
SOLG dive it would have been a third strong week
for the Copper Basket, which reflects well on the
general state of the junior copper complex as 2025
draws to a close.
However, the end of last week saw a sizeable sell-
off as seen in the chart of our preferred tracker, the
most liquid Comex futures contract (currently March
2026). Copper saw some selling early week, then
once the Powell & Trump Show had done its thing it
went on another rip, only to see selling and a
significant 20c/lb drop late Friday, before closing
around the U$5.35/lb level. Still a most excellent
level from which to value copper companies of any
size, shape or development level of course, but
we’re also in an overbought scenario and I’m not the only copper market watcher looking out for a sudden
drop. Last Friday’s doesn’t really count, but it is a warning sign.
This week’s curated copper comments offers a chronology of last week, we’ll start with Bloomie (13):
“Copper climbed to a fresh record high after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected
interest-rate cut and upgraded its growth forecast for the US economy.
14
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7ced ht41
source: IKN calcs

That and POTUS making it plain he expects to have a de facto seat in the FOMC via the next FedHead
pushed the March contract over U$5.50/lb, but then (14) sellers showed up and the hacks reached for
explanations for the late Friday dump:
Copper slumps after hitting record as tech bubble fears resurface
Copper plunged more than 3% on Friday, after hitting a record high earlier in the session, as renewed
fears of the AI bubble bursting sparked a broad sell-off of riskier assets.
Just in case you don’t hate the media enough. A year ago the “We Have No Idea So We’ll Say This” excuse
for any abrupt move in copper was ChinaFears!!!, these days the stuffed suits have AI Bubble as their
fallback. So for a more nuanced (and likely more accurate) view, this report (15) and the comments from
Ewa Manthey of ING are offered:
“We think in the near term, supply disruptions should keep a floor under prices around the $11,000/t
level,” said ING analyst Ewa Manthey. “However, for the rally to extend, stronger demand -
particularly from China, the largest consumer - will be crucial. For now, prices will remain
rangebound.”
That’s more like it, a decent marketwatcher who doesn’t have to pull in a real world “reason” for any move in
any squiggly line, sometimes market prices move for purely market reasons, I also agree with Ms Manthey’s
second quoted comment from the same report:
“The risk of demand destruction also shouldn’t be overlooked, Chinese buyers are showing some
signs of price sensitivity.”
Our ongoing study of copper inventory movements has pointed to the same dynamic, particularly when we
filter out the noise around the Comex stocks levels (that’s now making it to social media channels and used
by copper bulls as another rah-rah reason to see the metal explode even higher). Copper stocks at SHFE
have moved abnormally and, as we’ve mentioned on too many occasions already, have not shown the signs
you’d want if the vaunted supply deficit were true. That’s not to say it won’t happen, indeed this desk expects
copper to come under supply scrutiny as 2026 rolls out, but for the time being we should consider China as
“price sensitive”, another way of saying “we have enough copper for the time being thanks very much.”
On the same subject, we move to our weekly segment on world copper inventories, with data from Cochilco:
 Another net add to the world’s three official world copper futures systems last week, with a
aggregate of 13,310 metric tonnes (mt) added and a global total of 661,071mt.
 We applauded the two recent week-over-week drops in Shanghai SHFE warehouse inventory,
hoping we’d see the typical December pattern of stock drawn downs that come before China’s
attention turns to its own New Year. So last week’s small added of 484mt to give a total of
89,389mt is a bit of a disappointment, but it does fit in with our current “watch out for January”
market set-up for copper the metal. There are still two weeks meaningful traded left in the year,
there’s time for a big drop in stocks.
 At the LME, we saw another 3,350mt added copper stocks to bring a total of 165,900mt. As this
addition comes a week after that big up in cancelled warrants, that in a non-tricky world indicates
a big drop in stocks coming, the inference is that dirty deeds are indeed afoot and there’s some
naughty boy or girl trying to send false signals about demand to a credulous market.
 But whatever games are being played at the other futures contracts, the Comex trend just keeps
rolling along and another 9,476mt was added to Comex stocks on the week, bringing the total to
another all-time record of 405,782mt.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows that despite the recent drop of 20kmt or so, we’re still in the same flatline
scenario that’s been in place since May.
15

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for a few notes on a handful of the basket stocks:
SolGold (SOLG.l): The M&A dances that happen at the LME are regimented and while there are a few
variables, tend to happen like this if things go well:
 Unofficial offer
 Unofficial rejection
 Official offer
 Official rejection
 Clock starts ticking
 Parties get serious
 Talks are conducted in a cordial manner behind closed doors
 Official announcement that if A offers B $X, then B would be happy
 A goes away and thinks about offering B the amount it wants
 If it’s not a silly number or out of reach, A duly offers B the amount mentioned
 Deal gets done
In the Case of SOLG and its Chinese suitor Jiangxi Copper Company Limited, up to last week we’d definitely
got to point 5 and that ticking clock and most people assumed that point 7) was going on behind closed
doors. But on Friday we got movement and the NR from SOLG (16) that day indicated that it would agree to
a deal if Jiangxi bumped to 28p, a decision backed by all major holders of company stock. BHP (10.3%),
Newmont (10.3% which came in from the Newcrest deal), Maxit (5.1%, the failed rainmakers) and Nick
Mather, via his personal holding (2.8%). We let the NR do the sums:
JCC has been a significant shareholder in SolGold since December 2022 and owns 365,757,587 SolGold
shares, representing 12.2% of the issued share capital of SolGold which, together with the BHP Letter of
Intent, Newmont Letter of Intent, Maxit Letter of Intent and Nicholas Mather Letter of Intent, in support of
the Revised Possible Offer, represents 40.7% of the issued share capital of SolGold. And this bit of the NR…
The board of directors of SolGold has indicated to JCC that, should a firm intention to make an offer
on the same terms as the Revised Possible Offer be announced in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the
Code, it would be minded to recommend such offer to SolGold shareholders.
…means we’ve reached Stage 8 of the above sequence and with that, the steam was let out of the
speculation on how high SOLG might go (chart
right) though it’s fair to say that word had
already started to get around. Though my
cynicism over leaky M&A boats is an extremely
minor quibble, the real story here is the great
job done by the new-ish team at SOLG, the
strategy of working up a starter pit story for
Cascabel and lowering the theoretical capex
burden for the big mine has done the job. BHP
will be happy to get this off their books (they’ve
decided on Vicuña) and Newmont had no rhyme
or reason to sully its political risk by moving into

Ecuador, especially not for a copper play and the Newcrest block caving experts will find plenty of willing
employers in the Chilean or Argentine cordillera.
The ball is now in Jiangxi’s court. It has until December 26th to either improve its offer or walk away. It’s
highly likely we’ll see the offer sweetened and on balance, I think it will agree to the 28p price as mooted by
the sellers though there’s always the potential Jiangxi aims a penny or so lower and tries to bargain into the
final stages. The LSE rules make that risky (for both sides) and this deal isn’t 100% safe yet, but last week
certainly made it more likely and the arbitrage to 28p indicates “probably not definitely”, too.
Copper Giant (CGNT.v): A salutary reminder for one and all, first and foremost your author, that the mere
fact that a project is unpermittable will never stop it
from being pumped to the Nth degree. In fact I know
these things, I also know that when opposing a Hot
Pump stock that has the entire Vancouver system
cranked up behind it when the sector is running the way
it is, there’s not much that’s going to stop the
momentum and it’s going to make you look stupid, at
least for a while. However, it does not change my
position or opinion of this stock, it merely reminds me
that no matter how bad they might be, shorting these
stocks is a financially dangerous activity. I’ll leave you
with the five-year chart of CGNT.v, to remind you that I
do know what I’m talking about when it comes to Mocoa and that neck of the Colombian woods.
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): Alongside American Eagle (AE.v), featured in today’s main fundies section as one
of our proposed Tax Loss Selling trades, BIG.v has been the underperformer of the year and one of the
keenest disappointments compared to its promise and hype coming in to 2025. But in this case I’m less
tempted to run a TLS trade because its drill results have been less than those of AE.v, the vibe coming into
the next set of assays is less positive and with Barrick as its strategic sponsor, the turmoil at that bigboy
company might end up affecting this junior negatively as the old guard applies a new broom (to mix my
metaphors). I might be reading too much into its recent weakness and that Barrick Factor, then again I might
not and the bottom line is that there’s no need to stick my neck out of a less-than perfect TLS candidate
when there are others out there that make more appeal. In other words, I’d be fine about changing my mind
if BIG.v gives me enough evidence to do so, that would be a stonking drill assay NR that improves its
momentum.
Hot Chili (HCH.v): Proof if you ever needed it that you gringos will buy anything, HCH has managed to get
momentum from its pivot to its La Verde resource target (and with a name like that, who could have guessed
there was copper in the ground?). Added this time last year on option, HCH gets 100% of La Verde via
staged payments that add up to just under U$9m over three years. As such, the way it’s managed to add
C$28.45m (U$20.5m) of market cap value since thanks
to the first two drill assay NRs from the target means
they’ve already got more than their money’s worth from
the deal. Also, we note that HCH is calling La Verde a
“copper–gold (Cu-Au) discovery”, which is really pushing
the use of the English language for a past producing
oxide copper pit that everybody knew contained
sulphide rock further down.
Whatever they “discover” at La Verde, it won’t remove
the fatal flaw of this project: No Water = No Mine and in
the case of HCH, they’ve tried to hide the cost of getting
water to the mine site (or sites) by spinning out the water pipeline project into a separate company. One of
these fine days, people will work out that costs shifted one step to the left doesn’t make them disappear.
17

The Producer Basket
After 50 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 141.83% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1108 108.74 98.14 163.7%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 502.579 84.57 168.27 115.2%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1705.994 73.51 43.09 178.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 41.33 215.15 83.0%
5 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 201.275 6.98 34.66 133.1%
6 New Gold NGD 2.49 791.7 6.63 8.38 237.9%
7 OceanaGold OGC.to 11.94 231.127 6.26 38.13 219.3%
8 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1330.134 6.12 4.60 88.5%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 3.60 12.12 117.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 2.46 16.38 82.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 141.83%
Another great week for the PM producers, with gold back over U$4,300/oz (and the GLD proxy up 2.3%
week-over-week), GDX up 5.7% and GDXJ up 7.1%. Even so, we managed to fish a loser from our list of
nine active companies as Agnico (AEM down 0.3%) under-performed significantly compared to the bigboy
winner Newmont (NEM up 9.3%). We’re a long way from the days earlier in the year when AEM’s market cap
was briefly higher than that of NEM. Another sub-par performance from B2Gold (BTG up 0.9%) as well. As
for the winners, Eldorado Gold (EGO up 11.5%) led the charge and along with NEM, New Gold (NGD up
9.0%) once again impress and has been the big winner of the year. As for our competition, the loss on the
year is just two weeks from becoming official, we remain a shameful 10% behind the GDX.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
160% comparative to GDX control
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Eldorado Gold (EGO): Every dog has its day, I suppose. Your author tried and failed to trade EGO as a
leverage play to gold and even after selling and moving on,
EGO stubbornly refused to give its backers the beta you’d
want from this type of company (compared with the peers in
the above list, for example). But the last couple of weeks
have seen EGO wake up and at long last, it’s showing the
right type of out-performance on volume.
Considering the timing, this feels like money moving in to
enjoy the Skouries re-rate as that mine moves out of
construction phase and into pre-commercial production. I
wish both company and those long the best of fortune and
hope they continue to do better than I did.
Agnico Eagle (AEM): Why the under-performance in Q4? Considering the amount of cash AEM must be
generating at U$4,000/oz+ gold, it’s not the corporate fundamentals that are in question. Instead I’d best-
guess a combo of…
18
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7ced ht41
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
12% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
10%
ikn 8%
gdx control 6%
4%
2%
0%
source: IKN calcs
-2%
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7ced ht41
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

1) Lack of leverage: AEM these days is a mature and relatively transparent read on its fundies, not easy
to point to where the next chapter of meaningful growth comes from. AEM in late 2025 may not be
sexy enough in a rampant bull market in which market participants are willing to take more risk for
more reward
2) Success = profit-taking. A massive success since 2023, there comes a time when investors sell, thank
their vehicle and move on
3) The Barrick Factor. Its recent resurgence is of the type that gets like-for-like money run by funds to
move over. The same can also be said for NEM to a certain extent, but the timing of AEM’s relative
under-performance coming at the same time as Bristow’s ouster and Thornton’s strategy shift to
make B more attractive to Wall St money is unlikely to be a coincidence.
At some point, I’d expect the ebb and flow of big money ask its big and intelligent computers to run their
models again and decide AEM is relatively cheap again, at which point it will rally to GDX. The next obvious
catalyst moment would be an announcement on production for Q4, along with any early financial metrics
AEM might offer to show the world just how much money it’s making at these gold prices.
The TinyCaps List
After 50 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 45.44% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 10.84 0.08 -52.9%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 32.98 0.22 51.7%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 6.43 0.065 -50.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 49.36 0.28 93.1%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 95.39 72.50 0.76 94.9%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 23.77 0.195 143.8%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 374.759 108.68 0.29 123.1%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 17.75 0.165 94.1%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 9.34 0.135 -75.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 26.92 0.185 32.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 45.44%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
19

 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A small bump up for the TinyCaps List last week, with the
60% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
five winners (BRO.v, CN.v, EDG.v, KDK.v, RDU.v) beating
50%
out the four losers (LMS.v, MOG.v, STS.v, VAU.v) with one
40%
remaining unchanged (ELY.v). All moves except one were
30%
small in either direction, the outlier being the 29.4%
20%
improvement in Condor Resources (CN.v).
10%
0%
Condor Resources (CN.v): Up 29% on no news, the only
-10%
reason for the change being the pop in volume on Monday,
which pushed a 17c and made it into a 20c+ stock. The rest
of the week was quiet, with small blocks apparently trying
to protect the new price level. We remind readers that Crescat owns 27% or so of the company and mostly
got those at 12c, so propping the price into the New Year will make its own balance look good.
The last news we got from the company was nearly six months ago, CN has been a washout of a component
in the 2025 list and won’t repeat in 2026.
Viva Gold (VAU.v): You could feel it coming. After months of near radio silence, the management team at
VAU were suddenly present at conferences and some of
the higher traffic junior mining interview channels.
Which all pointed to (17)…
“…is pleased to announce its intention to complete a
non-brokered private placement (the "Offering") of up
to 18,750,000 units (the "Units") at a price of
CDN$0.16 per Unit for gross proceeds of up to
CDN$3,000,000. Each Unit will consist of one
common share in the capital of the Company (a
“Share”) and one-half of one non-transferable
common share purchase warrant (each whole
common share purchase warrant, a “Warrant”). Each
whole Warrant will be exercisable to acquire one
Share at an exercise price of CDN$0.24 per Share for
a period of 36 months from the date of issuance.”
…yes indeed, it’s a late-year placement. The auditors will be happy to know their fee is covered.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): Literally one day after we published a thought or three on KDK, the company
delivered on its promise to update its Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) for its MPD project, adding tonnes
from the three missing zones (18). Here’s the updated overview Copper Equivalent chart, with the highlights
line at the company’s preferred 0.20% CuEq cut-off:
For a résumé of what’s changed, here are six lines on the changes since the original MRE earlier this year
(and with a little fortunate timing, as featured in IKN862 last week).
Indicated tonnes: From 56.4mt to 82.9mt, up 47%
Indicated grade: From 0.42% CuEq to 0.39% CuEq, down 0.03% (-7.1%)
Indicated CuEq Mlbs: From 522mt to 719mt, up 37.7%
20
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7ced ht41
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Inferred tonnes: From 240.7mt to 356.3mt, up 48%
Inferred grade: From 0.33% CuEq to 0.32% CuEq, down 0.01% (-3.0%)
Inferred CuEq Mlbs: From 1,754mt to 2,524mt, up 43.9%
Overall a reasonable update for MPD and roughly what you’d want from a 4-out-of-7 resource becoming a 7-
out-of-7 resource. I also bothered to watch the 35 minute company webcast presentation (19) featuring CEO
Tornquist and Chair Taylor that went over the update and pointed us to the likely spots of MPD where the
next stages of resource growth will come from. It was a decent view. Then going beyond the call of duty, I
also tuned in to the 21 minutes of obsequiousness from Crux Investor’s Matthew Gordon (20), who could
probably tell you want Chris Taylor had for breakfast the day before the segment was taped.
So much rose-tinted spectacles, the one subject nobody touched on was the grade of MPD. Well, almost
untouched because in the corporate segment CEO Tornquist made a defence of what looks like a low copper
grade by stating that the nearby Copper Mountain mine runs similar grading material and makes a good
profit. However I don’t care and here are three reasons for starters:
1) If they insist on including that 1.11 g/t silver in the revenues mix and part of the CuEq calculation at
a 54% recovery and then claiming it will be payable, they’re going to keep getting my pushback. It
doesn’t add much to the CuEq mix, but the mere presence tells me they’re optimizing to within an
inch of Taurean manure.
2) They can claim comparison to Copper Mountain all day on grade, recovery and even metallurgy, but
they can’t compare embedded capex levels. Copper Mountain can run 0.24% and 0.28% copper
material because it doesn’t have a bean of capex to pay for, meanwhile KDK at MPD has zero dollars
and zero cents spent on pit, plant, processing, tailings, and the myriad of et ceteras that come with a
modern mine.
3) Also, if you check back (as I did) to the first years of the Copper Mountain mine, once the early
quarters in 2011 and 2012 were done and it had achieved operational stability, the grades it ran were
between 0.33% Cu and 0.42% Cu (at the same typical recovery levels), that’s a long way from the
0.24 and 0.28 here.
Copper Mountain: Cu grades/qtr in first years
And another reason: Why won’t they address the low grade issue? And why did Matthew Gordon “forget” to
ask them about the low grade elephant in the room, for that matter? Thing is, the MPD project looks like a
low grade copper project because it is a low grade project and you only have to look at their own 0.2% cut-
off assumption to see that staring at you. Although somewhat scientific, the smell test number for a robust
economic project is Grade = 3X cut-off and at 0.39% M+I, KDK at MPD doesn’t even make it to 2X, even
when adding that fantasy island silver credit. So neighbour to Copper Mountain or not, nobody is building a
U$1.5Bn machine on top of that and getting quick capital payback, your prospective mine builder is going to
look at a lot of other projects before coming back to this one. So if you are wondering why KDK’s market cap
is low compared to peers, wonder no longer.
Bottom line: Don’t get me wrong, I’ve mentioned previously that there are worse ways of playing the
“leveraged to copper” trade than KDK and once again, its relatively cheap market cap compared to its
resource and likely tonnage upsides in the future make it a reasonable vehicle. We should also remember
that it gets backing from one of the high-level teams in Canadian mining and with successes such as Great
Bear under Chris Taylor’s belt, his companies now get that extra level of love, attention and respect. I’m not
going to stop anyone from trading this as a spec on copper, the team is a serious one doing good work,
21
3.0 53.0 33.0 43.0 83.0 93.0 93.0 24.0
Cu% CMMC.to: Copper production 4q12 to 3q14
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25 0.20 0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
4q12 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14 2q14 3q14
source: company filings
8.31 2.41 7.51 7.71 6.81 1.91 9.91 7.12
Mlbs Cu
25
20
15
10
5
0
4q12 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14 2q14 3q14
source:company filings

access to future capital is not an issue. But don’t confuse this project with a top class A-lister copper
porphyry, because it isn’t.
}
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile has a new President
Today is the big day and as expected José Antonio Kast has beaten Jeannette Jara in the second round run-
off and as from today, is Chile’s President-Elect. Thanks to Chile’s excellent tallying system, the fast count
result hit 99.62% less than three hours after polling stations closed and a day later, the 100% result:
 José Antonio Kast: 58.16%
 Jeannette Jara: 41.84%
A result very much along the lines of what we expected. As you may recall, this desk has been confident
about the Kast victory since early year and calling it a near-lock since August or so. As one example, here’s
how the note in IKN853 dated September 21st on the official start of the Chile election season ended:
“…we should assume Kast is the next President of Chile and position accordingly, the best
Latam jurisdiction for mining FDI is about to get better.”
But this isn’t about your author, all laurels to the winner. Depending on who you talk to, Kast is right wing,
hard-right wing or a Hitler-loving fascist (his father was indeed a Hitler Youth and soldier in the German army
in WW2 who saw plenty of action, then moved to Chile in 1950 to escape persecution, but all that is another
story for another day). For my money “hard right” is the way to view his politics because when you’re
considered on the clear right in Chile you have a serious reputation. But your President-Elect is also pro-
market and has zero time for Socialism and all its niceties, in other words all the things that FDI likes in its
LatAm Presidencies. Personally I think he’ll be a good President for the country, he has that Statesman image
and is an intelligent, eloquent speaker. His entourage is sometimes a different story, as his party includes
people from the extreme right wing so the make-up of his cabinet and the line he takes against the outgoing
Boric will be keenly watched in the country. His arrival will be greeted with warm applause by the mining
world and you may see a near-term rally in the major indicators, even a early rally for socially challenged
projects (the Vizcachitas project owned by Los Andes Copper (LA.v) comes to mind), but on the whole
tonight’s result won’t be a surprise to the market and the Kast win has already been largely baked in.
Argentina: Vicuña makes national headlines
For most of us, BHP/Lundin’s Vicuña is one of the best-known mining projects in the world and has been for
a number of years, but for rank and file Argentines, it’s still largely unknown. Until this week that is, because
the formal application made by the Vicuña Argentina JV for the development of the Josemaría and Filo del Sol
projects contained as part of Vicuña put the project firmly on the map of mainstream Argentine media. Take
for example this report in the country’s #1 newspaper by circulation, Clarín (21). The translated headline:
The “Biggest Foreign Investment In History” Enters the
RIGI program; A Copper Mega Project In San Juan
That report goes on to tell José Publico that the initial investment (i.e. the one that allows the company to
apply for RIGI in the allotted timeframe) is estimated at U$2Bn, “but it could go higher than U$15Bn in the
medium-term”. Argentina’s Minister of the Economy, Luis Caputo, didn’t hold back on the hype either. He
wrote on TwitterX (22):
“BHP and Lundin Mining have just applied to the RIGI program for their Vicuña project. Vicuña is a giant copper,
gold, and silver project in the province of San Juan, potentially the largest foreign direct investment in mining in
our country's history, for the development and construction of the Josemaría and Filo del Sol deposits.”
Be clear, this is a big moment for mining in Argentina. This is when the public reaction to the amount of
investment dollars that mining can bring in to the country will begin to sink in and, in a country where every
dollar is welcomed to boost its International Reserves, it’s set to be an important piece of the Milei revolution.
22

Mexico: The new water law is passed and signed into law
It’s not only the speed at which Mexico’s new water law, the “General Law of Waters” (Ley General de
Aguas, or LGA) has moved through Congress and has been signed off by the Sheinbaum executive, it’s the
contents that worry the country’s mining industry. The LGA appeared in the Public Gazette on Thursday
December 11th, that means it’s now active law and while complex, the need-to-know for us is that it’s bad
news for the mining industry. The best report on the new law is here in Lex Latin (23), which delves into the
technical details but also gets comments from several types of lawyer in Mexico. The headline change is that
the LGA now makes water a Human Right in the country. From that, it means that water rights are now fully
controlled by the national government and cannot be “owned” outright by private concerns. Then comes the
kicker, as explained by Lex Latin (translated):
Furthermore, the law grants exclusive power to the National Water Commission (Comisión Nacional
del Agua (Conagua)) to grant, supervise, modify, revoke, and reassign concessions and permits. In
practice, no private company or other entity can manage or trade water rights without government
authorization.
In so many words, “water rights” are now a thing of the past in Mexico. Mining companies (and other entities
that have a heavy use of water, e.g. agro) will still be allowed to use large quantities of water, but they have
to apply to the government for permission. That permission must then be granted but even then, the
government will have the right to take it away. The rescinding of contracts for water are being framed by the
government as a penalty if the user abuses its supply in some way, shape or form (overuse, contamination
etc) but under the letter of the law and as it’s now framed as a human right, there’s the potential for the
government to withdraw permissions for water use and grant those waters to (for example) a local
community if it is suffering a drought. Last week in IKN863, we quote Rubén del Pozo, president of the
Mexican Association of Mining, Metallurgical, and Geological Engineers (Asociación de Ingenieros de Minas,
Metalurgistas y Geólogos de México, AIMMGM), on the issue as saying:
"In particular, Article 118 practically prohibits the construction of mining facilities in a large part of the
national territory, especially in mountainous regions where most operating mines are located,
particularly the new ones situated in highland areas.”
When the law was signed into activity, he was interviewed again last week (24) and added to his
position of concern for the mining sector in Mexico (translated):
"We need to sound the alarm, mining involves investments that take a very long time to mature. So
we can't say that mining (in Mexico) is finished due because of this, but we do need to be very careful
because we're now sending signals of uncertainty, the worst enemy of investment. When there's no
legal certainty, the first thing investors do is allocate their money elsewhere, we're talking about large
sums of money that need to be active.”
And he’s right, of course. Despite the passed law moving directly onto the books and becoming active law
last week, the water law issue continues to be notable by its absence regarding the mining scene in Mexico.
Be clear, this is a clear net negative for the country’s optics for mining FDI, or perhaps that should be
“another clear net negative”, because they seem to come with tedious regularity these days.
Market Watching
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) buys a copper mine, Part Deux
Due to its author being lazy, unproductive and not finishing the edition on time, last week’s IKN Weekly,
IKN863, managed to squeeze in a few early thoughts on the news last Monday afternoon that our Top Pick
stock had moved into the copper production business. “In Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) buys a copper mine” we
considered the contents of the NR regarding the purchase of the Condestable mine in Peru and also gathered
a few thoughts and opinions from the company, mainly from company Chair Alex Black. Since Monday we’ve
seen new information about the deal arrive:
 Information on the mine: The 43-101 Technical Report on Condestable was filed to SEDAR
midweek and provides a wealth of information on exactly what RIO.to is buying.
 Information on the deal and financial structure of RIO.to post-close: The prospectus and corporate
presentation, also filed to SEDAR midweek, are the places to go.
23

 Information on what the market thinks of the deal and we’ll start with this final item, via this price
chart:
Hooboy, there a lot to like about the way the market reacted to the news. To begin, the stock price got
nowhere near to the C$2.22 bought deal ticket price, the lowest trade marked at C$2.37 on Tuesday.
Secondly, I’ve gone with the comparative chart to GDX because it shows how RIO.to continued to track the
advance of the market faithfully both before and after the deal announcement, but it also gives important
context to the move we saw on Friday. The announcement Thursday (25) that RIO.to had filed the formal
documentation for the deal on SEDAR seems to have been the trigger point. Those looking for fundamentals
on Condestable and what the deal means to the current RIO.to structure had the Prospectus Supplement, the
Base Shelf Prospectus, a new Corporate Presentation and also the latest 43-101 technical report compiled on
Condestable, dated April 2024, more than enough information to come to a conclusion and, as seen above,
the market applauded what they read.
RIO.v: Shares out
Moving to information on the deal and the post-close
financial structure of RIO.to, the prospectus has the nitty
gritty details but for our purposes, we can lean on the
corporate presentation (get your copy here (26)) for the
Pareto Principle level information. To begin, we add
information from today Monday (27) that the upsized
bought deal had closed with a fully taken overallotment
and our estimate of 544.18m shares out in IKN863 fits
nicely with the company estimated 544m S/O pro forma.
We also learned that our estimates on the loans tied to the
deal were accurate…
…and while I’d prefer to see those paid on a quicker schedule, the absolute amounts involved are far from
onerous. Then slide 14 of the corporate presentation showed we had the information on the Franco-Nevada
stream almost correct, the only mistake was assuming it was a 66% stream between 2026 and 2032 when in
fact, FNV’s stream covers 63% of production. Before moving on, it’s worth noting that at [EDIT MONDAY]
today Monday’s close of C$2.80, Rio2 Ltd now runs a pro-forma market cap of C$1.523Bn, or U$1.106Bn in
the world’s benchmark currency. Yes indeed ladies and gents, Rio2 Ltd is now a Billion Plus market capper
and that’s quite a jump from, let’s say, the C$49m market cap from this time three years ago.
Finally, the 43-101 technical report on Condestable filed to SEDAR last week provided a lot of information and
along with word from the company, there’s every reason to expect this to continue as a strongly profitable
mine. We get the basics on the resource…
24
34.181 83.281 71.091 17.091 95.991 78.991
43.452 43.452 96.652 15.752 15.752 65.752 46.752 83.852 57.852 32.952 75.952 6.813 6.813
73.624 95.624 85.724 78.924
81.445
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 52q4
M s/o
source: company filings

…with the all-important copper grades and recoveries and plenty of detail on the mine plan that, most
interestingly notes that despite this being a mature operation (over 60 years old) is expected to source ore
from newly developed upper levels of the resource in the next 13 years, thereby avoiding the extra costs that
come with an ever deeper UG mine.
Condestable Cu production at constant 8,400 tpd
and eventual 12,00tpd upgrade
25
30491 88291 07381 13281 97971 76971 96791 18002 84722
15903
32902
46092
80312
91892
69012
69103
08471
76652
02281
22462
97961
90382
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
source: 43-101 technical report, IKN calcs
raey/tm
uC
throughput as per 43-101 report
thruput 8,400tpd then 12,000tpd
So when you combine the data and assume the current 8,400tpd throughput, getting granular with the
expected grade average per year in the detailed tables further down the 43-101, we arrive at annual
production figures (above) that concur with the RIO.to estimates of annual production. His chart shows
expected payable production that averages around the 20kmt/annum level, it also shows what would happen
if the RIO.to plan to invest and bump up throughput to 12,000tpd as from 2029 (or 2030, I’ve gone with the
former) come to pass. We then get to model all sorts of ways, shapes and forms for a cash flow model and
I’m not going to go deeply into it today, instead a simple chart (or two) to show what Condestable can offer
in the way of operating profit. If we assume metals prices around today’s spot, with copper U$5.00/lb, gold
U$4,200/oz and silver U$50/oz, then do the math on the stream, here’s a chart showing annual revenue
breakdown per annum at a constant 8,400/tpd run:
Condestable: Model payable metals metals revenue per year
5.202 2.891 9.712 8.052 6.032 9.432 5.232 7.291 8.002 2.781
U$m
350
silver
300 gold
copper
250
200
150
100
50
0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
source: company filings, IKN ests

As you can see, this mine is all about the copper even when the FNV stream drops to 37.5% of production in
2023 and beyond, the typical revenues mix per annum around 87% to 90% copper, the rest from the kickers.
So once we add in a reasonable estimate for cash costs (I’ve used the 43-101 as a baseline and added 20%
to account for recent inflation), then done the same for a model that assumes throughput is bumped up to
12,000tpd as from 2029, we get this chart with two sets of figures:
Condestable: Estimated operating margin per annum at spot price metals deck
26
4.28 18 3.28 28
3.011 411 6.131 671 6.021 471 2.711 371 4.701 861
8.97
541 4.89 061 8.79
791
U$m
220
Model op. margin at 8400tpd
200
180 Model op.margin at 8400tpd
160
then 12000tpd
140
120
100
80 60
40
20
0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
source: company data, IKN calcs and ests
There isn’t much to come out of that operating margin number besides Peruvian tax. Indeed, one of the
potential profit sucks is happily avoid as the vendors, Southern Peaks, have recently finished a significant
sustaining investment period and fears that some
analysts may have had of this mature mine Condestable: Recent sustaining capex and forward forecasts
becoming a capital burden seem to be unfounded
(looking at you, O´Keefe of Cantor). There’s no
way RIO.to will complain about a sustaining
capital bill of U$5.1m in 2028 if it’s pulling down
over U$110m in operating profit.
I’ve chosen these very ballpark models instead of
going deep into the weeds to show the most
important thing about the RIO.to acquisition; it’s
set to be very profitable and the ticket price on
this deal of U$217m (plus debt assumption) looks
cheap indeed. The risk of buying unknowns at
Condestable is low, this mine has been a steady and established operation for six decades, its operators know
it inside and out, at this stage it’s highly unlikely to throw up unpleasant surprises. This time last week I was
somewhat concerned the market would get critical about the sizeable addition of copper to the precious
metals revenues mix but one look at the price chart (above) shows that was a minor issue and easily
outweighed by the significant advantages this purchase brings.
Conclusion
IKN864 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Four trades this year around Canadian Tax Loss Selling, one new name to the Stocks to Follow list and
with these done I’ll be fully tapped out for cash. I’ll probably throw the ARG.to performance dividend
cash at one of these flips, too.
 We haven’t done a massive amount on our new trade in Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v) this weekend, but
last week’s note and the steady trading last week means we’re off to a good start. Unlike the tLS flips
presented today, this one is for the long-term and in this case I’m looking for the type of wealth creation
magic we’ve seen in RIO.to, ARG and others.
 Top Pick Rio2 (RIO.to) has a sparkling week at market, the reception for its Condestable deal could not
have been better. I’m not changing the house price target for the time being, but come the day it will be
591.11
328.81 997.32
5.11
855.7
641.5 939.4 182.4 30.5 757.4
65.3 634.2
U$m
25
20
15
10
5
0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
source: Condestable 43-101 report

a good reason to aim a little higher than the current C$4.13 and not be in a rush to take profits. I also
think we’ll make that four handle sooner than you’d expect. Own some.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if
required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5646874-trump-desires-low-interest-rates/
(2) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/12/trump-kevin-warsh-fed-chair-rates.html
(3) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/schedule-for-week-of-december-14-2025.html
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmUtx_NYInw
(5) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-drilling-intersects-167-m-of-1.06-cueq-within-909-m-of-0.41-cueq-from-surface/
(6) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teUgxtX5oz0
(7) https://electrumdiscovery.com/electrum-discovery-provides-operational-update-exploration-footprint-expanding/
(8) https://wp-valkea-2025.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/2025/12/2025-12-09-Valkea_NR_Koivu_FINAL.pdf
(9) https://www.arizonametalscorp.com/arizona-metals-announces-initial-drill-results-from-sugarloaf-peak-drilling
(10) https://www.goldroyalty.com/_resources/presentations/Pedra-Branca-Presentation.pdf?v=121405
(11) https://latin-metals.com/news-releases/latin-metals-announces-execution-of-arrangement-agreement-for-spin-out-of-para-and-
auquis-copper-projects/
(12) https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20251210.pdf
(13) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/copper-advances-toward-record-high-after-fed-delivers-rate-cut
(14) https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3XI0M0:0-copper-slumps-after-hitting-record-as-tech-bubble-
fears-resurface/
(15) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-eases-after-nearing-12000-set-for-3rd-straight-weekly-jump/
(16) https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/solgold/news/rns/story/x50jopr
(17) https://vivagoldcorp.com/site/assets/files/6107/vau_nr_25-12_viva_gold_announces_private_placement_offering_-_final.pdf
(18) https://kodiakcoppercorp.com/kodiak-reaches-key-milestone-with-initial-mineral-resource-estimate-at-the-mpd-copper-gold-project/
(19) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSqIicRdkgA
(20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4Sk3Joh9dU
(21) https://www.clarin.com/economia/entro-rigi-mayor-inversion-extranjera-historia-mega-proyecto-cobre-san-juan_0_KdEDlHKoig.html
(22) https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/12/12/el-gobierno-anuncio-el-ingreso-al-rigi-de-la-inversion-extranjera-minera-mas-grande-
de-la-historia/
(23) https://lexlatin.com/reportajes/ley-general-de-aguas-mexico-mineria-agroindustria-parques-industriales
(24) https://es-us.finanzas.yahoo.com/noticias/mineros-acusan-exclusi%C3%B3n-reforma-ley-144642339.html
(25) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-announces-filing-of-prospectus-supplement-in-connection-with-previously-announced-bought-deal
(26) https://www.rio2.com/_files/ugd/d7ae14_41b9d3c5543e4e91890242b5e8ad86a4.pdf
(27) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-announces-closing-of-upsized-bought-deal-for-gross-proceeds-of-c-191-million
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
28

Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
29

New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
30

B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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