6 The IKN Weekly, issue 862 — Dec 02, 2025
The IKN Weekly
Week 862, November 30th 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Dancing through 2025, Santa Claus is coming to town, Last
call for 2025 Basket Cases.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF), Buying Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v).
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Valkea Resources (OK.v), Blue Moon (MOON.v), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to),
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v), Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v),
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to), Aurion
Resources (AU.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, SolGold (SOLG.l), Copper Giant (CGNT.v), Andina Copper (ANDC.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick Mining (not Barrick Gold) (B) (ABX.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Mogotes Metals (MOG.v).
Regional Politics: Bolivia: The new government is already disintegrating, Chile: The last polls confirm Kast
as favourite Argentina: Mendoza votes pro mining.
Market Watching: West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v) 3q25 financials, Gold Royalty (GROY) has a good week.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads up
As it’s time to use all the power available in the portfolio, I’m a buyer of two stocks in the days to come:
Buying Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF)
Buying Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v)
See today’s main Fundies section for more.
In today’s edition
The decision to buy two stocks today is driven by the desire to be fully long in this most bullish of
markets for mining stocks as we move into 2026. I’ve chosen Wesdome (WDO.to) because it’s a bit
silly to refuse such an obvious trade simply because it’s larger than my preferred market cap.
As for the open on Blue Moon (MOON.v), consider this a starter position in a stock I’ve watched for
quite some time without ever managing to pull the trigger. With the company now moving into a more
active phase of its development, it was a case of either putting it on the Watch List or buying a few. I
chose the latter, but be clear that if things go well I’m looking to make this company a core position
over the medium to long-term. Opening salvo today.
If there’s one section of today’s edition that has something useful to say, it’s probably the intro. We’re
in a market that doesn’t need stockpickers or deep fundies analysis, you can throw a dart at a list of
stocks and find winners just as good, or often better, than any so-called expert can offer. What you do
require, however, is the same resolve that the “Keep Dancing Til The Music Stops” catchphrase for
2025 has given your author. Ignore the noise, focus on the core point that gold hasn’t stopped its run
higher yet, hold on tight, make money.
The Copper Basket has a longer than normal breakdown of the week’s events in the world of copper,
as we strongly suspect the metal’s price action was pimped by an overdose of networking in Asia. The
price pop to over U$5.00/lb (even at the LME this time) is welcome and I expect to see this level
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consolidate as 2026 rolls out, but also think we’re overbought in the near-term and a correction is in
the cards, at some point between now and February 2026.
Dancing through 2025
It wasn’t difficult to make money in junior mining last week, something worth making clear to one and all
reading these words. We’re in an environment where the last thing you need is a stockpicker or genius guru
telling you what to do and the proverbial monkey with the dartboard can put together a winning portfolio
from the junior (and senior) miners on offer, but what we can do is make sure you’re long and stay long in
this rampant bull market. So here we go.
I’ve tried to stay away from it, repetition became too much of a cliché for my taste, I’m not into generating
catchphrases or personal brands. That’s why the phrase of 2025 “Keep
Dancing Until The Music Stops” has been missing from recent editions
but with the move we saw last week, there’s no way I can say what I
want to say without writing it out again. It’s held this desk in good stead
this year, a touchstone providing reassurance while we climb the wall of
worry. As readers may recall, I had a bit of a wobble in August and to
jog memories you may remember this cartoon (right) that showed in
IKN849 dated August 24th when I finally snapped out of my nagging
doubts, but aside that I’ve been okaying able to ignore the negative
npoise and focusing on the gold price rally. For example, its most recent
move and the one we enjoyed last week came just a couple of weeks
after the world telling us the game was up for gold, metals and mining
stocks because of Chinese taxes, the tariffs, the Dollar rebound and the
list goes on. Remember all that mocking from people lining up outside
bullion stores, how it was a “no brainer” the run was over and gold had
had its day? They were wrong, again, those that stayed long the mining
companies were right, again and thanks to the “Keep Dancing…”
message, we count ourselves among the winners.
We’re in an environment that doesn’t need a nerdy fool like me telling you exactly which stocks to pick,
indeed it’s often the juniors I hate that will benefit the most when the market hits top gear. I’m the yellow-
bellied sniveling coward of a failed soothsayer that stays well away from silver and much prefers exposure to
the gold miners, you remember?
Good, don’t forget it as the above chart gives you another good reason to unsubscribe from this service. You
don’t need me to tell you what to buy, you don’t need anyone telling you how fantastic their picks have been,
we’re all in the same boat. The only thing you needed to do in 2025 was to keep dancing and as 2026
beckons, it’s still the only thing you really need to keep in mind. The U$50 you’re paying me is 450 shares of
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) with commissions covered, Why on earth are you giving your hard-earned
money to me when you can do that and own something that’s going to be worth U$100 soon enough? So
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unsubscribing from The IKN Weekly (and any other junior mining newsletter you might be paying good
money for) in this current market is the takeaway piece of financial advice for this week.
Santa Claus is coming to town
He's making a list, checking it twice,
to find out who's naughty and nice
From last week’s intro:
“…however much I try to get contrarian with myself, there seems to be no escaping the
conclusion that we, the mining and natural resources investment people, will have to get
used to the idea that U$4,000/oz isn’t a peak, instead it’s a baseline on which we build future
earnings…”
And…
“…gold is where it is today because it deserves to be”
Then came the market week in gold:
We use the CME continuous contract to commemorate the day CME stopped trading when a datacenter
overheated, but aside that modern day glitch the story is straightforward. As for what the miners during a
week that also saw USD weakness, Bitcoin recover some of its well-publicized losses from the week before
and a welcome broad markets rally, let’s go with GDX versus GLD for the simple visual:
That’s a good week by anyone’s standards. For more details on the power and breadth of the rally, as well as
some breakdown on which stocks did best in the sector, check out the Producer Basket below but the point
we make here in the intro is that the market seems to be cottoning on to the true implications of U$4K/oz
gold. Want some simplified context? Okay, here’s a thought on Newmont, whose 3q25 production was 1.42m
oz, its AISC was U$1,566/oz and its average received price was U$3,539/oz. Put those together and the
crude margin is U$2.8Bn. Now for sure that doesn’t include the fripperies of life such as capex on new mines
and so forth, but it gives an idea of just how much NEM made in the last quarter. With gold averaging a little
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over U$4,000/oz in Q4, let’s make it simple and add U$500/oz to the mix. That’s another U$710m into the
NEM treasury this quarter, compared to what was already a record-breaking quarter so I invite you to stop
reading a moment and mull on those numbers; That’s not U$710m in profit in one quarter, that’s U$710m in
extra profit, on top of U$2.8Bn. And as it dawns on the market that U$4,000/oz+ gold isn’t a flash in the pan,
it also starts to realize that the NEM, AEM, B, KGC of this world are set to return this type of margin all
through 2026 and the years after that. This weekend NEM is a U$100m market cap company and quite
frankly, that looks cheap compared to its cash generation ability.
A sustained U$4k/oz Au environment will attract a lot of new money into the
sector, whether it be top down from fund managers or family offices, bottom-
up as specialist funds select growth stories to back, or a hundred other
variations on those themes. However, the organic generation of wealth is at
the centre of the unfolding success story, the true wealth generation that
comes from making something at a cost price of U$1,500 and selling it for
U$4,000 (EDIT Monday, or U$4,250/oz as of this morning). The stock market
may be a zero sum game, but the mining sector most definitely is not and the
improvement we’ve seen may be due to outside money coming in, but the core
reason are the profits being generated by established operations. It’s been a
good November, but with gold buyers back with a vengeance [EDIT Monday,
we saw U$4,250/oz this morning] we’re setting up for a December to
remember in our sector of focus. So dust off your copy of A Motown Christmas
and get down to the sound of The Jackson Five, because Santa Claus is
coming to town.
Last call for 2025 Basket Cases
It’s had two appearances, I have a long list for all three baskets (and work to do to make a final call), you’ve
kindly sent in more ideas (thank you), one more today and that’s enough for 2025. We repeat our annual call
to you out there, esteemed subscribers of The IKN Weekly, for nominations, suggestions, ideas and thoughts
on the companies we should include in the 2026 Copper Basket, the 2026 Producer Basket and the 2026
TinyCaps List. More ideas came in last week, most went on the respective long lists and at least a couple of
them are better than my ideas, so they’ll probably make it. So once again thank you to those who made the
effort, but there’s still time and room for others on the long list. So thanks in advance for any mails arising
from today’s segment, now for an exact repeat of last week’s intro:
Every November/December, your author puts together a long list (then a short list) of stocks for our three
tracking baskets for the year to come, namely The Copper Basket, Producer Basket and TinyCaps Basket.
Year-end will see those lists refreshed, with companies leaving and being replaced by others and as usual,
my long-list is already in place for all three lists. However, every single year without exception, when I ask for
your ideas and suggestions I get ideas that are better than mine and the final make-up of the tracking
baskets is always an amalgam of brains. We therefore throw the subject out to the collective mind of
readership today, asking for suggestions and here’s the framework required for each category, as the baskets
are somewhat different in make-up:
For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent the junior copper
mining world. The maximum market cap is normally $1Bn but preferably, I like them lower to better
reflect our sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a cross section is required. As we’re not trying
to beat the street and want a faithful reflection of the sector, always happy to include bad copper
companies or dog stocks if they bring something to the table (e.g. this year we deliberately included
CGNT.v, which did exactly what I expected it to do, yok yok).
For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we normally require a
minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for precious metals
producers that will out-perform in 2026, as we also try to beat the GDX benchmark. That’s a semi-
serious competition but, as The IKN Weekly has managed to out-perform the GDX in eight of the last
nine years, there’s pride at stake. Especially as this year looks to be heading into the losing column
and putting my record back to eight from ten.
For The TinyCaps: First and foremost, for this list we try for a maximum market cap of $20m, as The
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TinyCaps tracks market moves of the smallest companies. However, at this level of market cap there
are many broken stocks and dead companies with projects going nowhere. They are not interesting,
as although we cannot expect operational or managerial perfection at this level the company still
needs to “have a pulse” and be a reasonable trade or speculative alternative.
I normally look to change between three and five companies on each list, so if you have a good candidate for
the Producer, Copper or TinyCap list, be they companies you own or not (or if it’s a doggish type of idea,
perhaps “owned”) please drop a line the usual addresses. Thanks in advance for any and all suggestions
received and expect this intro note to run by way of a nagging reminder for the next two or three editions.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF)
This isn’t going to be a long Fundies section, even though it’s one that sees me deciding to buy two stocks. In
the case of Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF), there’s little to add to the recent work we’ve done on the
stock. There have been other notes, but there are two that most matter, starting with the Market Watching
segment in IKN857 dated October 26th “Wesdome (WDO.to) (WDOFF) finally looks set to run”. On that day,
we pointed to the recently published 3q25 production numbers that were a clear improvement on previous
quarters, as well as the positive signals coming from the company about the current Q4. That week was the
same one that saw the gold and metals complex do its waterfall drop and the improvement in WDO was
somewhat lost in the negative noise so I thought it worthwhile to put together a longer note on the stock
than it normally gets in Producer Basket, underline its stealth improvement to you the reader and be done.
And I thought that would be enough, but the issue kept grating on me to the point where I ended up
dedicating the main Fundamental Analysis section of IKN859 dated November 9th to the company, in
“Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF) is ripe for the picking”. That week had seen WDO report its quarter and
deliver the good numbers we expected, it also came a week after the announcement that Coeur was buying
New Gold, a deal that pointed another finger toward WDO as one of the more obvious M&A targets out there.
The company confirmed that Kiena was now finally showing the improvements we’d been waiting for all year
and with gold charging, the combination was becoming difficult to ignore. And I said as much last week in
IKN861:
“…you may well remember how I vowed on all the holy books not to get involved again
with the larger cap companies or buy them for the Stocks to Follow list. But man oh man,
WDO is sorely tempting me now.”
The change, above all is the relative price of WDO compared to the field because to my surprise, it was (and
still is) being ignored by the market. The comparative chart to GDX shows when the schism began, the break
occurring on the day WDO announced its 2q25 production results. At that time, we commented in IKN844
that “…the market was probably right to mark down WDO the way it did, because Kiena is obviously glitchier
than it should be at this stage.” That turned out to be the case and it proved to be one disappointing quarter
too many for a market that had afforded WDO under new CEO Bath plenty of patience to that point, but it’s
when the patience ran out.
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There’s a clear question of broken trust among some WDO (ex) holders and its stock price action since then
hasn’t given them any reason to go back to the stock (even though it may be a self-fulfilling
underperformance). And I like them when they’re out of favour. I also like mining stocks when they are
ticking off the list of reasons to suppose a turnaround in performance, which is what WDO is showing now, in
Q4. Add in the gold price run and the hotting up of M&A, particularly the consolidation deals, and there are
too many ducks in line now. Therefore, I’m a buyer of WDO this coming week and that won’t come as much
of a surprise to anyone here. As for a target price, any buyout offer under
Buying Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v)
The second buy note is more a heads-up than anything else. This trade idea has been on my personal back
burner for several months and with the market now moving through the gears, it’s at the point where I’d
either have to put Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v) on my Watch List and declare interest, or just buy a few and
be done. The Santa Rally atmosphere of last week made my mind up and while you’re going to get a
dedicated analysis of the company next weekend in IKN863 (the numbers are done, but I need more time to
get the narrative straight) I want to call buy this week so that I don’t have to wait any longer (or pay a 4-
handle for the stock. This top box…
Shares out: 80.843m
Options: 0.763m
Warrants: Zero
DSUs/RSUs: 0.287m
Fully diluted: 81.893m
Current share price: C$3.97
Market Cap: C$320.95m
Approx cash per S/O: C$0.30c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated, forex CAD$1 = USD 0.72
…that will also appear next weekend puts a frame on MOON.v, it’s a relatively expensive developer with
several irons in the fire, but an attractive and tightly held share base and plenty of money with which to go
out and develop its thing. The stock has risen recently…
…and I kind of regret not pulling the trigger during the summer when there was all the C$3.20 stock you
could eat, but that’s okay and what matters now is the upcoming suite of catalysts we can expect from the
company. I like the assets, I like the strategy they are employing and thanks to the way this team went
about its work in their previous junior, Adventus (sold to Silvercorp), I like and trust the people running the
show. MOON.v is a stock that hasn’t grabbed the market’s attention yet, but I expect that to change in 2026
which is why I’m going to be long as from this week and will be fully positioned by the time the re-rating
window opens. A lot more next weekend, but be clear I’m a buyer before that main note gets published.
Stocks to Follow
All boats rise on a high tide. It was an excellent week to hold a portfolio laden with junior mining stocks, I’m
just glad that most of my own picks managed to come along for the ride. There were 17 names on the table
this time last weekend, of those just three were losers on the week (LMS.v, PGDC.v, MENE.v) and one
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unchanged (MIRL.cse), so that’s thirteen winners and you no list of tickers required. We do however note the
biggest movers, so a cheer for the double figure percentage moves in Gold Royalty Corp (GROY up 26.1%),
Electrum (ELY.v up 25.0%), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to up 16.7%), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to up 15.7%), Salazar
(SRL.v up 14.3%) and Minera Alamos (MAI.v up 11.8%). Also pleasing that in general terms, the biggest
winners ere at the top of the table where there’s most money in play. Weeks like this don’t come around very
often and when they do, the gains are never about your personal stockpicking prowess.
With the addition of Valkea (OZ.v) to the Watch List and the addition of Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) and Blue
Moon (MOON.v) to the main list we’re up to 20 open positions, the self-imposed maximum at any given time.
Eleven are in the green, one is unchanged, five are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$2.50 212.5% Re-rated to new $4.13 tgt
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v HOLD C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.425 102.4% $0.70 tgt, selling early 2026
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$3.77 144.8% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$10.99 260.3% Quality Cu dev, FS due
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$4.39 213.6% 2nd target U$5 in 2026
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.88 20-Jul-25 C$0.90 2.3% re-rate trade, $1.44tgt
Wesdome Gold WDO.to BUYING C$22.50 30-Nov-25 C$22.50 0.0% New trade, buyout tgt
Blue Moon MOON.v BUYING C$3.99 30-Nov-25 C$3.99 0.0% New trade, LT view
Aurion Res AU.v BUY C$1.07 21-Sep-25 C$1.11 3.7% Agnico will buy more Finland
Arizona Metals AMC.to HOLD C0.66 5-Oct-25 C$0.56 -15.2% hold2 end Xmas may then add
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.12 8-Sep-24 C$0.15 20.8% Added more Sep & Oct'25
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.16 100.0% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.195 2.6% proj.generator, Organullo spec
XXIX Metal XXIX.v STR BUY C$0.11 27-Aug-25 C$0.12 9.1% v good PEA Oct'25
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.095 58.3% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.17 750.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Valkea Res OZ.v WATCH C$0.26 9-Nov-25 C$0.265 1.9% Tinycap Finland neighbour play
Electrum Disc ELY.v WATCH C$0.055 9-Nov-25 C$0.075 36.4% dirt cheap Serbia exploreco
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.165 -63.3% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
Minera Alamos MAI.v Aug'25 C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% lightened overweight position
Surge Copper SURG.v Sep'25 $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.215 104.8% took profits, good result
Provenance Gold PAU.cse Oct'25 C$0.15 27-Aug-25 C$0.265 76.7% took profits, good result
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Now for notes on some of the covered stocks:
Valkea Resources (OK.v): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. Up half a penny on quiet debut week for OZ.v and
that’s how I like them, especially as I don’t own any
shares yet. A reminder after last week’s intro note on
the stock, the plan here is to wait and watch for a
potential Tax Loss Selling price dip, then make a
decision after Christmas.
Blue Moon Metals (MOON.v): BUYING. As noted
above, I’m a buyer of MOON.v in the days to come.
Here we offer a 12 month price chart, note the
improvement in traded volume in the last two months
and move on.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to): BUYING. As noted above,
after way too much procrastination I’m going to put my
money where my mouth is and buy some Wesdome shares in the days to come.
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): We were ready for this company’s 3q25 numbers via last week’s main
fundies preview note and we tackle all that in “Market Watching”, below. Here a comment on the way it
traded and the move back to 90c from last weekend’s 84c (and a trading range lower than that) was certainly
welcome, but there were plenty of other stocks that bounced
better than WRLG.
Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): It wasn’t much of a move,
which is why I’ve chosen a two-month chart to illustrate the pop
next to its recent heavy drop, but to its credit AMC managed to
move with the tide last week and found buyers, which at least
means there are people watching. The plan remains in place and
it’s not that difference from the one mentioned above for OZ.v;
we hold and watch until TLS seasons is over, then make a call.
The only difference here is that the choice is ADD/HOLD/Sell,
because I’m already in the hole on my first purchases.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): The liquid-ish assets table shows each share of OCI now has the backing of 8c from
its holdings:
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 10.72 0.49 5.25 2.1
ARIC.v 7.39 0.60 4.43 1.8
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.40 1.67 0.7
XXIX.v 23.637 0.12 2.84 1.1
KTR.v 42.75 0.075 3.21 1.3
MERG.v 1.025 0.55 0.56 0.2
MERG warrant 0.5125 0.10 0.05 0.0
ZIGY.cse 4.942 0.39 1.93 0.8
subtotal 19.94 8.0
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 19.97 8.0c
At 248.332 S/O
Three news items of note from the companies held by OCI and for me, the most interesting one is MERG,
which announced (1) a deal with Centerra as strategic partner on its new NIV project,
(copper-gold-molybdenum, Toodoggone, BC, Canada) via a $9.3m placement priced as quoted from the NR:
“…consisting of approximately: (i) 8,880,000 common shares to be issued on a premium flow-through
basis (each, an “FT Share”) at a price of C$0.73 per FT Share; and (ii) 6,200,000 common shares
(each, a “Share”) at a price of C$0.45 per Share (the “Offering”).”
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There are no warrants on this deal, the flow-through is already fully filled and the 6.2m standard shares will
give Centerra a 9.9% stake in MERG. The deal announcement took the edge off the rally in MERG shares and
they dropped from 64c to 55c, but that’s still a big lift from where the stock used to trade and the NIV project
sure reminds me of the way Ore Group went about building the NAK project under American Eagle.
Garry property (2) as they continue the campaign to sell to Gold Candle next door. The bullet points from the
NR…
Large, never-drilled ultramafic target identified beside Kerr Addison.
MT anomaly from ~250 metres to >1,000 metres.
Strong structural alignment with Larder Lake-Cadillac Deformation Zone and key district faults.
Interpreted folded ultramafic unit with high-grade potential.
High-impact upside with ANT survey to refine and then drill-test.
…can be summed up as “we think this might be a continuation of Gold Candle’s Kerr Addison deposit located
just next door to us and if it is, we are going to be very rich”. How ZIGY gets from geological sleuthing to drill
testing the target remains to be seen.
The final OCI related news came from Kintavar (KTR.v), which announced it had completed its name change
paperwork and as from next week December 3rd, the company is called Auriginal Mining Corp and its ticker
changes to AUME.v. With that done, I’d expect the company to start ratcheting up its marketing push.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you get a lot for your money plus plenty of downside protection by
playing the Ore Group of companies by holding the “hub company” in the group, Orecap.
XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v): There’s a new corporate video out for XXIX, find it here (3) and unlike many of
these things, I recommend you check it out. It’s slick and professional, evocative backing music etc, but the
thing that most matters are the testimonies from locals around the Opemiska mine project (including one
that’s apparently going to have to move his house). There’s clearly local support for the mine re-opening, the
video does a good job of showing an outsider the layout of the town of Chapais and how the mine would sit
as part of the infrastructure.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Up on no news, which is good of course. MAI is set to report its Q3 this coming
week which will be the last quarter before Pan (and the
other ex-EQX assets) is incorporated so its backward-look
won’t be particularly enlightening, so all eyes on any Q4
guidance or mention of how production has gone in the last
couple of months.
UPDATE Monday: We’re not going to update on all news
from our stocks this Monday, but in the case of MAI it’s
worth doing because 1) it reported its quarter early this
morning (4) and 2) it gets a job out the way fro next week.
The share price reaction to the 3q25 numbers is notable
(right), as it showed the market took the numbers in its
stride and allowed MAI to rise with the other juniors. That’s
the right result, as although there are big changes to the tracking charts, there was nothing unexpected and
what matters is the current quarter, the first for “New MAI”.
So to the charts and while the big bump in assets looks spectacular, it’s as expected.
MAI.v: Assets
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 9
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
inventories MAI.v: Liabilities per qtr
$m fixed 200
other current
cash 180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
source: company filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
As for liabilities, $135m of that big stick in 3q25 is going away, as it’s the subscription receipts that were
turned into shares the day after 3q25 ended, October 1st. MAI used most of that money to pay Equinox, but
it gets to keep some of it and along with the cash now being generated by Pan, they have the money
required to execute on their immediate plans now.
Working capital was printed just in the negative for the quarter, but should be back in the positive by end Q4
for the same reasons. As stated last week, the balance sheet at the end of Q4 and the first quarter of cash
flow from Pan is way more important than this transition quarter. As for shares out, with the EQX deal for
Pan etc consummated on October 1st, the share count is now estimated at 1,057.9m, very close to our
estimates when the deal was announced. MAI reminded us in its literature today that it plans to roll back on a
ten-4-one basis soon, not least because it also plans to quote on the Nasdaq at some point (and also wants
to get on the TSX main board). A share price of $4.50 and a count of 105.8m is more germane for such
ambitions.
MAI.v: Shares Out
Regarding operations and the P+L, production from Santana was down to remnant-only in the quarter and
MAI registered sales of just over C41m, COGS $300k above that and a “gross loss” from the mine op of
$299k. We know the company now considers
Santana non-core and has obviously shifted its
priorities, we weren’t expecting much from the
mine anyway and these numbers provide more
confirmation. For the record, net loss was
$7.06m, almost entirely due to the debt
settlement part of the "New MAI" deal that,
unlike the Pan closure, went through before
quarter end. That was C$9.5m, MAI got
C$2.94m of welcome, but non-cash relief, from
its forex adjustment (a good time to report in
Loonies).
As for new news in the release, aside getting
the exact balance sheet numbers, the only standout was
learning that “First gold pour from the Pan Operating
Complex under Minera Alamos ownership occurred on
October 7, 2025, with total gold production of 3,093
ounces in the month of October.” As Pan has produced between 8k oz and 10 oz per quarter on a regular basis
recently (chart right), that monthly total is also as
expected. We look forward to reading about the entire
quarter’s production in early January, it’s one of the more
obvious catalyst moments for “New MAI”.
Overall, despite the dramatic changes in the tracking
charts the Minera Alamos 3q25 financials came in very much as expected and I’m happy to be able to treat
them today, instead of waiting until next weekend. Our plan remains unchanged, this is likely to re-rate into
10
2.644 84.844 32.944 86.754 88.164 88.164 88.164 88.164 88.264 88.264 89.264 7.074 30.994 24.775 18.085 18.085
9.7501
1100
1000
900
800
700
600 500
400 300
200
100
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 tse52q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
MAI.v: Working Capital per qtr
654.51 805.71 562.22 482.81 198.91 816.02 866.91 869.91 942.81 184.41 115.5 115.51
582.9 4.8
302.0-
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10
8 6 4
2
0
-2
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
MAI.v: Revs, COGS and Gross margin
80.3
744.3
763.0-
97.1
209.1
211.0-
667.1
473.3
806.1-
64.2
715.2
750.0-
994.1 33.1
961.0
0
634.0
634.0-
759.4
439.2
320.2
374.3
936.2
438.0
641.3
435.3
883.0-
810.1 713.1
992.0-
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
Revenues
COGS
C$m
source: MAI filings, IKN ests "gross profit"
Pan Mine: Gold produced/sold, per qtr
9659 53901 48101 92411 57701 02401 4279 97401
1776
5319 9469 4769
6707
5628 64701
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
Oz Au
gold produced
gold sold
source; Calibre/Equinox filings
the new year and when we get close to or at the warrant overhang price of 70.5c, it’ll be time for me to wave
goodbye. The 18% move since IKN861 is most welcome, but there’s likely more to come.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): The debate and vote in the Mendoza regional parliament was delayed from
Tuesday to Thursday last week, but aside that it went as expected and the San Jorge mine project now has
its EIA permit, pending a confirmation vote in a couple of weeks’ time. That means MARI has a live 2% NSR
on a project that’s scheduled to produce 40,000 tonnes of copper per year over a 16 year mine life and that’s
worth a decent wedge of money.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Not so often that a big dividend payer goes ex-divi and jumps 7.7% on the
same day, but that’s what we got from this core holding as the world got the hots for copper and the sector
had a serious upday on Friday (see Copper Basket, below). The newly upped dividend of 4c is due to drop
into my (and your) market account
We also got the unsurprising news (5) that ARG had renewed its NCIB share buyback program, with the right
to buy back up to 11.7m of its shares in the next 12 months. ARG didn’t made much use of its 2025 NCIB,
with just under 4m shares bought back from a potential limit of 10.75m. With copper now at the U$5/lb level
and the mine working at full tilt again, I’d expect more buybacks in 2026 even as the standard dividend is
paid and a likely performance dividend at the end of the current quarter. All ducks are in line at ARG, so even
if it got a little overbought on Friday (as I suspect), there’s no point in getting cute with the stock.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to): As well as another All-Time High to record this week, we had news from the company
via its X account (8) that leach pad irrigation had begun. This is a big moment for the nascent mine, one of
those when engineering lead times come together at one point. As for trading, it was another excellent week
for our Top Pïck, another all-time high and a market cap now handily over C$1Bn. This trade is doing
everything it was supposed to do and assuming a smooth transition into production in 2026, the only thing
that can stop it from going higher is a reversal of the gold price.
Aurion Resources (AU.v): In trading, AU showed a bit of life and our aggregate position has kicked and
screamed its way back into the green. Aurion filed its 3q25 financials and there were no big surprises, so
here are the basic tracking charts to show the continuation, with comments where the results were
significantly different from our guesses. In fact, our model was reasonably close:
AU.v: Assets, per qtr
Assets and liabilities now look like this above, the major difference being the extra C$1.9m on current
liabilities, mostly extras trade payables but as you can probably make out by the Y-axis, the totals are very
small. Over on the credit side of the ledger, the cash position of C$12.025m was right on our estimate,
receivables increased a little and our overall numbers were less than 1% out from the total of C$82.674m.
With slightly higher payables and assets hitting the market, our working capital guesstimate of C$10m was
out by C$1.7m to the C$8.296m reality. Not an issue.
11
85.94 95.15 93.35 88.45 24.85 905.95 925.06 721.26 136.36 361.56 860.76
274.86
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
C$m total fixed AU.v: Liabilities per qtr
6
other current
cash 5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3 2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
C$m
LT liabs
current liabs
source: company filings
AU.v: Cash and ST inv
As for expenses, AU spent half a million on consultancy fees which is their right and hard to guess in
advance. The only real difference was the C$1.797m in (non-cash) share-based payments as incentive
options were emitted. Finally, the share count of 161.911m reflects the recent raising, the total stood at 300k
higher than our estimate, close enough for a company that pays some of its bills in paper.
Overall, a standard and non-surprising set of numbers. That’s good.
The Copper Basket
After forty-eight weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 94.93% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 890.73 29.68 328.9%
2 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 976.40 5.95 260.6%
3 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 302.76 723.60 2.39 67.1%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 174.6 687.92 3.94 168.0%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 598.10 3.52 85.3%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 250.605 496.20 1.98 167.6%
7 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 406.39 3.26 59.0%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 289.289 182.25 0.63 14.5%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 175.07 166.32 0.95 41.8%
10 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 136.924 128.71 0.94 49.2%
11 Andina Copper ANDC.v 0.16 211.085 109.76 0.52 225.0%
12 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 173.377 84.95 0.49 -29.0%
13 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 143.08 43.64 0.305 -3.2%
14 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 304.79 36.57 0.12 9.1%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.622 17.10 0.48 -20.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg 94.93%
12
479.8
772.6
442.9
60.7 967.5
986.3
882.2 317.8
494.6 917.5
400.4
520.21
01
8
4
1
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 tse52q4 tse62q1 tse62q2 tse62q3
C$m AU.v: Working Capital per qtr
source: company filings
5.31
2.11
8.31
0.01
5.7
8.5
9.3
4.01
9.5
8.3
9.1
3.8
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
C$m
source company filings
AU.v: Expenses
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1 0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
C$m other AU.v: Shares Out
share based comp
prof fees
consulting fees
wages/benefits
G&A
source: company filings
65.711 75.711 77.711 68.711 68.711 68.711 10.031 64.231 64.231 64.231 64.231 98.841 98.841 1.941 6.941 19.161
200
180
160
140
120
100 80
60
40
20
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
source: company filings
An absolute face-rip rally among the copper explorecos last week with multiple stocks registering 20%+ gains
and our representative copper basket improving by a cool 22% to finish at a new 2025 high. When a basket
of these small and volatile stocks manages to return a
group near double in a year, you know there have The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
100%
been some eye-bulging moves among components. It 90%
80%
wasn’t all one-way traffic however, with four stocks
70%
going lower on the week (ALDE.v, TMQ.to, REG.v 60%
50%
ECU.v) and one that remained unchanged (AE.v). The 40%
30%
other ten were winners and those gains were headed
20%
by the blistering moves in SolGold (SOLG.l up 48.0%), 10%
0%
Copper Giant (CGNT.v up 45.2%), Andina Copper -10%
-20%
(ANDC.v up 33.3%) and Hot Chili (HCH.v up 23.3%).
The move in the other double figure percentage mover
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) almost feels like an
underperformance after that little list.
The rocket move was fueled by the
general market buoyancy as well as a
notable uptick in copper. This chart
showing 12 months of the impressively
volatile Comex price this year includes
the speculation around the Trump
Tariff, the ensuing waterfall drop when
POTUS47 decided to carve out
unfinished copper from tariffs. Despite
all that, we’re back at the U$5.00/lb
level again and this time, the LME has
come along for the ride. Those mid-year
Comex contract highs happened while
LME copper stayed firmly under the
U$4.50/lb line, but now the world needs
to pay the same price.
For copper news, nearly all the fun last week was generated at the ”World Copper Conference Asia 2025”, a
big industry bunfest held in Shanghai, with headlines made by the Chinese smelter industry and the bullish
market soothsayers alike. Starting with the fundamentals, one Chen Xuesen, who happens to be the vice
president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and in a position to speak for and about the
smelting sector in his country, told us “China firmly opposes negative copper treatment charges” despite his
association’s members apparently willing to strike deals at negatives. For the record, the copper concentrates
TC implied by smelter purchases in the Asia Pacific region was negative U$42.90/tonne last Friday, a price
that’s remained relatively stable at that rate for the last two weeks. With that in mind, here’s the extended
quote (6):
China “firmly opposes” zero or negative processing fees for copper smelters and is urging the global industry to
confront a “structural contradiction” that has upended the market for the industrial metal.
Treatment and refining charges – the fees earned by smelters for processing ore into metal – have plunged to
record lows this year due to a scarcity of raw materials. Rapid growth in China’s smelting capacity, by far the
world’s largest, has collided with a series of mine outages around the world.
A negative TC/RC effectively means that a smelter is paying to process copper concentrate – a highly unusual
situation that has called into question the long-standing industry pricing benchmark. Spot charges have fallen as
low as minus $60 per ton this year.
“Such practices severely undermine the interests of the global copper smelting industry, including China,” Chen
Xuesen, vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said in a presentation to an industry
conference in Shanghai on Wednesday.
“CNIA firmly opposes any zero or negative TC/RCs in processing of copper concentrate,” he said. “We urge the
global copper industry to confront this unsustainable structural contradiction and foster collaboration among
relevant nations and stakeholders.”
Recently, China has come under pressure from countries such as Japan and South Korea for its aggressive
build out of smelting facilities, which has turned the concentrate trade into a sellers’ market. Miners with
13
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs
concentrate to sell have a surfeit of smelters looking for their business and the result is what we’ve seen in
2025. As a result, the conference was told this (7):
China’s top copper smelters will cut production by over 10% in 2026, to counter overcapacity in the
industry that has led to increasingly distorted copper concentrate processing fees, according to a
Chinese market information provider.
Or if you prefer, this (8):
China's Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Vice President Chen Xuesen announced at the World
Copper Conference Asia 2025 that China had stopped working on 2 million metric tonnes of planned
smelter capacities.
He said that the growth of fixed asset investments in the industry has fallen to 0.4% compared to 23%
at the beginning of the year.
He said that the overheated investments in the industry are under control. In the future, China's new
copper smelting capacities will be strictly limited. China's copper refinement and copper processing
won't be pursuing the goal of volume."
Chen warned that processing fees for the next year's supply contract should not be zero as
negotiations between Chinese smelters, Antofagasta and copper mining giant Antofagasta begin.
You’ll have to excuse my cynicism on this subject, as it’s not the first time we’ve heard “we’ll cut smelter
capacity” from China, only for its members to ignore the plan and keep on keeping on. This bullet point list
(9) is the result of the fight for concentrate inside the world’s biggest copper market:
• Chinese smelting capacity expanded by approximately 30-40% over the past five years
• Global copper concentrate supply grew by only 15-20% during the same period
• The resulting overcapacity has forced utilisation rates below 70% at many facilities
• Energy costs alone consume 25-30% of total smelting operational expenses
And as that extensive report on China’s smelting world goes on to note, “This capacity-supply mismatch
created unsustainable competitive dynamics where Chinese smelters bid against each other for limited
concentrate feedstock, driving processing fees into negative territory for the first time in modern market
history.” Quite right and if you want to nerd out on smelter numerical details, that last link is the one to use.
Shifting gears, the other big theme from the World Copper Conference Asia 2025 last week was the queue of
big name analysts who tried to out-hype each other about the bullishness of the copper market. Your first
excerpt comes from this report (10), we pick it up just after the reporter talked up the U$11,000+ tonne
(U$5.00/lb minus a penny) prices on the LME:
The jump also came after Kostas Bintas, the high-profile head of metals at Mercuria, renewed his
bullish prediction for prices, warning that a rush to ship metal to the US risks draining the rest of the
world’s inventories.
“This is the big one,” he said in an interview at the end of an industry conference in Shanghai. “If the
world keeps going like this, we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world.”
That got a lot of people with expensive suits and access to a lot of money drooling about the metal. Sure
enough, up we went on Thursday and Friday in what the market considered a “speculative move” (i.e. LME
traders quietly laughing). Long story short, last week bullish analysts told greed-driven fund managers that
copper would go higher and copper went higher because…the analysts said it would. An overdose of
networking. Our second report excerpt comes from this (11), a report on a round-table discussion on copper
performed to a standing-room-only crowd:
Trading houses are bidding aggressively for concentrates in deeply negative TC territory, betting on a
projected 300,000-tonne copper concentrate deficit in 2026 and competing among newcomers to
build market presence.
Nicholas Snowdon of Mercuria said that the deficit will be around 500,000 next year, speaking at the
World Copper Conference Asia 2025 on Wednesday in Shanghai.
(Managing Director of Manatrade Mehdi) Lemsagued explained the trader mentality: “They are pricing
forward because they’re seeing deficits coming on the copper, and I think this is making sense.”
Traders view current aggressive bidding as long-term positioning rather than immediate profit-making.
That’s the sound of analysts offering a tacit admission that current copper demand isn’t strong, then telling
us it doesn’t matter because 2026 matters more, i.e. the vision of a market pricing in the assumed 2026
deficit. As we finally saw evidence from the SHFE data (see below) that there are buyers looking to stock up,
they may have a point but up to last week, the clear message from China was “We’re not paying that price”.
14
As for this desk, we recognize and tip our hat to the speculative move as it has enough logic to be
reasonable, we also state for the record our medium-term and long-term bullish credentials (for the
umpteenth time). However, a sag in the copper price as we enter 2026 would come as no surprise at all; it’s
the quiet buying period of the year, the market is being hyped to the ceiling right now, we’re almost certainly
in overbought territory today and while that doesn’t have to reverse in a matter of hours of days, it should do
in a matter of weeks. So my advice is…
Play the December momentum
Be wary of copper retracing in January and February 2026
But stay bullish for the rest of 2026
…and while that might be getting way too cute for my own boots, it takes into account the current
exuberance, the likelihood we get a demand sag once the Chinese buying season is over, then a renewed
bullish backdrop once the Chinese New Year is in (this time it’s the year of the Fire Horse).
It’s the end of another month, we therefore update our long-term copper inventory tracking charts and the
developing story continues to be the Comex stocks, that continue to break record after record and now
account for over 60% of the copper in the three official systems. This is unheard of and even when Comex
stocks hit their only other peaks in late 2017 and 2018, there was still more copper held in LME warehouses
(and most of the time in SHFE). This is a new situation and one we’ve spoken about on several occasions…
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
15
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj ram yam luj pes von
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME source: Cochilco
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj ram yam luj pes von
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
…so it’s interesting to see that it’s now making industry headlines. As noted above, the Shanghai conference
had high visibility copper market gurus using this very data point as one of the reason to be long the metal.
With all that done and with the subject now hot, it’s time for our regular look at the copper inventory scene
and reasons to be cheerful about copper in the week to come. Data from Cochilco:
Another overall add to the three official world copper futures systems last week, though the
aggregate +9,102mt wasn’t quite as spectacular as the 36kmt of the week before last. This
weekend’s total is 636,255mt.
We finally have a drop in Shanghai SHFE stocks, with 12,673mt and a total of 97,930mt, under
100kmt and going in the normal direction for the time of year. We’ll see how low it goes before
the buyers tap out, this season only has six weeks left maximum, but this week’s drawdown is a
relief for bulls and a reason to support the copper price rally.
LME copper stocks saw a modest 4,400mt added, with the difference made by tonnes arriving in
Asia warehouses. That’s Chinese smelters exporting finished product.
And the Comex train keeping on rolling, with another big inflow of 17,375mt to bring the total to
389,900mt and as seen above, this trend is now catching the attention of people far less nerdy
than me. That’s a good thing.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows the small drop and the total back under 100kmt, but it’s going to take a
second draw down of the same size (or more) to break the flatline trend that’s now over seven months old
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for note on a few basket stocks. I feel sorely behind with the news on these stocks, having left this
section empty for the last three editions (or four?). I’m going to start to repair the backlog with comments on
last week’s biggest stories from the bunch.
SolGold (SOLG.l): Last week’s big winner was up 48% on this news (12):
The Board of SolGold plc ("SolGold" or the "Company") can confirm that on 28 November 2025, SolGold received
a preliminary and conditional non-binding proposal from Jiangxi Copper Company Limited ("JCC") in relation to a
possible cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of the Company at a price of 26 pence per
ordinary share (the "Proposal"). The Proposal follows an earlier non-binding proposal from JCC which was
unanimously rejected by the Board of SolGold on 23 November 2025.
The SolGold Board has carefully considered this Proposal along with its advisers, and has unanimously decided to
reject this Proposal.
The proposal is from the most obvious buyer, if not the only one. The rejection was nearly obligatory
according to the rules of being a London listed company, there’s no point in accepting either the first or
second offer as the regimented timetable. Here’s how Jiangxi announced its position to the market today
Monday, with the ball very much in the Chinese court:
With the public rejection now in place, the clock starts running and Jiangxi has until Christmas to formalize its
offer. It has three possible routes:
1) pow-wow with SOLG, come to a friendly agreement, announce
2) Make and offer with out without the approval of the SOLG board
3) Withdraw its offer
All three are logically possible, even the implied hostile route of 2) even though they don’t happen very often
in our modern world. In this case, there are enough large blocks of SOLG in the hands of third parties (BHP,
NEM, instos) to warrant the Chinese going around the SOLG board and agreeing a price with others. The bets
result for SOLG shareholders today would be a friendly deal.
Copper Giant (CGNT.v): As for the #2 move that was still good for 45%, Copper Giant made the most of
its resource update at the unpermittable mess it calls Mocoa (13):
At its preferred 0.25% CuEq cut-off, CGNT now has a 43-101 compliant resource of 1.12Bn tonnes grading
0.51% CuEq (0.31% copper, 0.039% Mo) for contained copper equivalent of 12.7Bn lbs. The terms of
inferred resource are as flexible as you’d imagine for a company trying to reach as far as it can. For example,
it managed to add 636 million tonnes of resource from 9,525m of extra drilling since the last MRE, which
CGNT called “efficient” in its NR (and while I’d pick another descriptive word, it’s difficult to argue with that
one). That’s 66,771 tonnes of mineralized rock defined for every metre of hole….and that’s efficient to the
point where it would put all drilling companies out of business if mining companies could rely on that ratio to
build a mine. Anyway, the peanut gallery was egged on by the CGNT paid pumpers and up the stock went
from the 20c to the 30c line. It’ll be back down soon enough.
Andina Copper (ANDC.v): The #3 big mover on the week was ANDC and despite being third on the list
was still a 33.3% winner. The main reason for the move is its move, as ANDC is now a Dot Vee stock on the
TSX Venture exchange instead of the CSE Yes indeed, we live in a world where established public companies
are deemed safer and less likely to become rip-off if they’re on the TSXV.
The Producer Basket
After 48 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 134.27% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1108 100.53 90.73 143.8%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 502.579 87.66 174.43 123.0%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1705.994 70.53 41.34 166.7%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 40.31 209.84 78.5%
5 New Gold NGD 2.49 791.7 6.61 8.35 236.7%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 201.275 6.30 31.31 110.6%
7 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1330.134 6.15 4.62 89.3%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 11.94 231.127 5.90 35.97 201.3%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 3.60 12.12 117.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 2.37 15.78 75.7%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 134.27%
The was no better place for your money last week than in precious metals producers, as the results shown by
our nine active Producer Basket stocks show. The “worst” of our nine was the 8.7% added by the world’s #1
by market cap Newmont (NEM), six of the nine were double figure moves and two were up by more than
20%, so a large round of applause for New Gold (NGD up 23.7%) and B3Gold (BTG up 21.3%).
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
12% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2% 17
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
160% comparative to GDX control
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data 20%
0%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2von ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
ikn
gdx control
source: IKN calcs
As for our annual race (above), that is now all over bar the shouting. If I removed the now-defunct
Sandstorm from the equation in the weeks since it was swallowed by Royal Gold we’d be closer, but not by
much and it feels like cheating. So I’m going to take the L and smile, after all it’s not so bad to “lose” and be
+134% on the year.
Barrick Mining (not Barrick Gold) (B) (ABX.to): The revival continues, with B adding another U$8Bn to
its market cap and B out-performing its Tier 1 peers last week by a clear 4% to 5%. Its good week began
before others, as the news we related last weekend that its dispute with the government of Mali over the
Loulo-Gounkoto mine became official on Monday (14):
Toronto – Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B)(TSX:ABX) (“Barrick” or the “Company”) today
announced that it has entered into an agreement which puts an end to all of its disputes with the
Government of the Republic of Mali regarding the Loulo and Gounkoto mines. All charges brought
against Barrick, its affiliates and employees will be dropped and the legal steps for the release of the
four detained Barrick employees will be undertaken. Additionally, the provisional administration of the
Loulo-Gounkoto complex will be terminated, following which operational control over the complex will
be handed back to Barrick. This will pave the way for a constructive path forward. As a result of the
settlement, Barrick’s subsidiaries will withdraw the arbitration claims currently pending before the
International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).
As well as the market-friendly resolution, which apparently includes the payment of U$430m to the
government of Mali, it’s another implied barb from “Camp Thornton” toward “Camp Bristow” on corporate
strategy under Mark Bristow. We note companies such as B2Gold have reported no major issues with the
Malian government (the Al Qaeda insurgents are a separate issue) and have continued a constructive working
relationship while producing, we also note Barrick tried to hardball the Mali government and let its own
employees languish in jail. The sudden resolution of the problems with Bristow out the way points us toward
the bottleneck, as it seems Bristow wasn’t ready to take the pragmatic course with Mali and swap hard cash
for continued operations. Like it or not, resource sovereignty is a thing and Bristow’s ideological stand against
the nasty government people ended up as part of his demise. But Barrick wasn’t finished with us, as on
Wednesday it announced this (15):
Toronto – Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B)(TSX:ABX) (“Barrick” or the “Company”) announced today that that
Ben van Beurden has stepped down as a Director of the Board and Lead Independent Director. Loreto Silva, a
current Non-Executive Director, will succeed as Lead Independent Director.
John Thornton, Chairman of the Board, said: “I would like to thank Ben for his contribution to Barrick and welcome
Loreto to the role of Lead Independent Director. The Barrick Board remains focused on delivering long-term value
for shareholders. The Company has industry-leading assets and a strengthened leadership team that is fully
aligned on delivering our strategic priorities.”
That was the whole NR, its brevity its own message. Notably, Ben van Beurden had only joined the board in
2025 and was Lead Director for less than four months (his predecessor had the role for twelve years).
According to the gossip, he’d landed in B as an ally to Bristow and had his eyes on the Chairman’s role, so
what we witnessed last week was John Thornton applying the broom and removing the vestiges of Camp
Bristow from positions of influence. There must have been all sorts of fun and games going on behind closed
doors over the summer, we’ll probably get to read some version of it eventually in a book of memoirs. We
should also throw Paul Singer and Elliot Assoc into the mix, the activist investor group that recently built a
large position in B shares. There’s no way Thornton would have moved without the good will of Elliott/Singer,
so there’s surely another layer of big money politics in that relationship.
As things stand today, B is the most interesting mining company in the world (and that’s the first time I’ve
even thought as much, let alone written it out for others to read). It gets to a point where I stop caring
about the internal struggles going on in any company, Barrick included, but in this case it’s worth considering
these big strategic changes because of the unofficial word going around that Barrick is considering splitting
into two. For one thing, it will make the component parts easier to swallow by aggressors, for another the
pool of buyers gets a lot bigger. Not so many companies want a mish-mash of the high margin jurisdictional
safety that Nevada Gold Mines offers if it had to come with a mega copper/gold project being built in “The
Stans”, equally there are buyers for Reko Diq that wouldn’t pay up for NGM because Class A political risk isn’t
their thing. The moves at Barrick…
Bristow’s ouster and Thornton consolidating power
Elliott’s arrival
The revolving door directorship of a powerful business figure such as van Beurden
18
Splitting Barrick into parts
Resolution of Loulo Gounkoto
Doubts over Reko Diq
Etc
…all point in the same direction, that of a board looking to extract maximum value from its equity. The
market likes that of course, but it also implies being open to the most direct way to created a shareholder
premium. Right now, I’d put the chances of the Barrick name surviving the next ten years in some way,
shape or form at 50/50 maximum.
UPDATE Monday: Sure enough, Barrick made it official today (16):
Toronto – Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B)(TSX:ABX) (“Barrick” or the “Company”) today announces that the
Company’s Board of Directors has unanimously authorized Barrick’s management team to explore an initial public
offering (“IPO”) of a subsidiary that will hold Barrick’s premier North American Gold Assets (“NewCo”).
If an IPO is pursued, NewCo would be anchored by Barrick’s joint venture interests in Nevada Gold Mines and
Pueblo Viejo, as well as Barrick’s wholly owned Fourmile gold discovery in Nevada.
It is contemplated that NewCo would be listed through an initial public offering of a small minority interest.
Following the IPO, Barrick would intend to retain a significant controlling majority interest in NewCo, while also
retaining and driving value in the Company’s other world-class global gold and copper assets in its portfolio. This
action is complementary to the Board’s ongoing operational review and focus on maximizing value across
Barrick’s portfolio for shareholders, particularly in North America.
This is a smart route to take, with the decision deferred until early next year and a structure that would allow
Mothership Barrick to retain control. B shares rallied early on the news, then fell back as the market digested
the terms and realized Barrick wasn’t in near-term play.
The TinyCaps List
After 48 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 40.46% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 10.17 0.075 -55.9%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 26.98 0.18 24.1%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 7.42 0.075 -42.3%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 49.36 0.28 93.1%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 95.1 66.57 0.70 79.5%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 23.77 0.195 143.8%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 374.759 114.30 0.305 134.6%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 15.06 0.14 64.7%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 10.38 0.15 -72.7%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 27.65 0.19 35.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 40.46%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A positive week for the TinyCaps List, with the average back over the 40% line thanks to a full eight winners
(CN.v, ELY.v, EDG.v, KDK.v, MOG.v, RDU.v, VAU.v), two unchanged stocks (BRO.v, STS.v) and just one
week-over-week loser (LMS.v). the big moves came from Electrum (ELY.v up 25.0%) and Radius (RDU.v up
12.0%), aside those things were moderate and quiet.
19
Mogotes Metals (MOG.v): The 2025 springer stock MOG was down until the last week sector rally
breathed through the sector and floated the great majority of boats, its slack trading early week likely
connected to this NR (17):
November 26, 2025 - Mogotes Metals Inc. (TSXV: MOG, FSE:OY4, OTCQB: MOGMF) (“Mogotes”, or the
“Company”) is pleased to announce that drilling of key priority targets has started on the Company’s Filo Sur
project located directly south of the large BHP/Lundin Filo Del Sol (FDS) Cu-Au-Ag resource1. Mogotes intends to
drill from the selection of high priority targets for Porphyry Copper (PCD) and High Sulfidation Epithermal (HSE)
gold – silver mineralization outlined by the company’s exploration programs starting at the Stockwork hills and
Cruz del Sur target cluster in Argentina (Figure 1).
To its great credit (and somewhat to the surprise of cynical me), MOG announced the start of its maiden drill
program and as such, we’ll soon known whether its elevated market cap is justified. This is now a classic drill
play with all the risks normally involved, particularly as there so much equity in this stock now. If MOG can hit
a dream hole that compares to its Lundin camp neighbours, even something more modest such as Altar-type
grades over long lengths, it will rocket higher. But if it shows dusters on its first holes, watch out below. The
heightened risk may cause profit-taking in the weeks between now and assays, then again its place in the
hierarchy of exploreco copper stocks is now set and if copper rallies into 2026, the day it pops or drops on
assay news could turn out to be at a higher price base. Such is the volatile and risk-laden drill play.
}
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Bolivia: The new government is already disintegrating
Not something I’ve read on any of the mining channels in the last couple of weeks, the sudden deterioration
of the brand new government of Rodrigo Paz is an unexpected development and particularly the source of
the unrest. His own Vice President, Edmand Lara, has taken his gripes and friction with the new President
public, calling his President Paz a liar on social media among several other accusations. The President
responded in kind, throwing barbs about his running mate and the upshot is a potential fracture of the
alliance, as well as a scenario that sets up the “traditional right” as the power behind the throne and opens
the Pax presidency up to all types of attacks from the MAS party and the left wing of Bolivia. Pax got voted in
for his apparent position that straddled the left and the right, so a sudden lurch to the hard right would play
into the hands of those ready to cause chaos from the left wing.
When Paz won the election, this desk applauded the result but also stayed clear of diving straight in with
Bolivia mining companies, preferring to watch and wait a while to see how the Paz presidency bedded in.
That’s looking like the right course of action and I’ll remain on watching brief for the time being. Paz and Lara
may get over their public fight, kiss and make up, then again they may not. Watching brief.
Chile: The last polls confirm Kast as favourite
There are still two weeks to go before the second round vote, but the Chilean election laws mean there are
no published opinion polls in the last two weeks so this weekend was the last chance to take the pulse of the
election. As expected (18), José Antonio Kast still holds a clear lead over Jeannette Jara, with the normally
reliable Cadem poll putting the race at 58/42 valid votes. From here and with the vast majority of Chileans
already decided on the way they’re voting, it would be a major shock if Kast were to lose from here.
Argentina: Mendoza votes pro mining
The provincial parliament of Mendoza made its new found pro-mining stance official last week, with two votes
that set the tone for its mining future. First on Tuesday, the lower house of parliament (deputies) voted in
favour of a new law that raises the regional royalty on mining operations to 3% of mine gate value, with a
clause that allows the provincial government to raise the royalty to 5% for specific mine projects. Then on
Thursday, two days later than expected, the same deputies debated, voted by 32 to 14 to approve the EIA
for the San Jorge mine, as noted last weekend and held in private hands (its holding company, Zonda, is
based out of Holland and although somewhat opaque, is apparently 70% Russian capitals and 30% a Swiss
based private equity fund). For some context, the last time the San Jorge project tried for its EIA was 2019,
when it was voted down by 44 votes to zero.
20
The decisions still have to get through the upper house and in the case of San Jorge, that vote is scheduled
for December 9th. The anti-mining groups in Mendoza made plenty of noise outside parliament last week and
we can expect them to double down on their efforts when it’s the Senate’s turn, but all indicators are that the
EIA will be ratified. Good news for Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), which holds a 2% NSR on the project.
Market Watching
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v) 3q25 financials
Last weekend’s main fundies note on one of the most obvious underperformers in the current Stocks to
Follow list (and my own portfolio), “West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): The weak spot”, turned out to be a good
primer for last week. It’s pleasant to see a good number of TSXV stocks filing several days before the
deadline for calendar Q3 of 2025 and one of the earlybirds was WRLG, which dropped its 3q25 financials on
Tuesday evening. In general terms, the financials came in along the lines of our preview last weekend. At this
stage of the company’s development, getting in the ballpark is the objective and we achieved that all right,
but there are differences to note in the dollar numbers worth mentioning, so we’ll run over the results and
point to a few items. More importantly, the production and guidance saw differences to the company’s stated
plan, so those get a closer look. Please note before we dive in that WRLG is still in pre-commercial production
and will likely stay that way in Q4, with commercial production starting in 1q26. As such, it’s important to
give the company leeway and if things are exactly as modeled, I for one don’t sweat it too much.
To give an idea of what I got right and wrong on the balance sheet, here’s a table:
WRLG 3q25 balance sheet items (C$m)
item IKN guess WRLG reality
cash&eq 48 45.789
current assets 65 57.366
fixed assets 201 185.562
total assets 266 242.928
current liabs 35 35.7
LT liabilities 115 122.591
total liabilities 150 158.291
working cap 30 21.666
source: IKN ests, WRLG data
Not the easiest to read I’ve ever put together, but it gets it all done in one shot and in ballpark terms, I was
happy how our model compared to reality. My only real mistake was miss the fact that the WRLG gold notes
are marked to market, which means that as the price of gold rises, the liability it carries in dollar term does as
well. It was a basic error, however it’s also effectively non-cash as the liability is paid in gold ounces rather
than hard dollars. Compared to the expected annual production estimate of around 50,000 oz per year, the
repayments aren’t onerous and as this screenshot from the 3q25 financials also shows…
…they are low for next year at 1,700 oz and easily handled. Anyway that’s the main difference between our
guesses and the reported numbers for Q3 with the gold note liability up C$7.7m to C$49.947m and estimated
to move to C$53m by the end of the year.
WRLG: Assets breakdown
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
21
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 tse52q4
C$m
WRLG: Liabilities breakdown
cash&eq inventories
other current min prop/plant/equip
other fixed
source: company filings, IKN ests
2.13
1.33
6.73 8.14
2.24 9.94 0.35
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 tse52q4
C$m
other LT liab
credit facility
gold notes
current liab
source: company filings, IKN ests
The cash position at C$45.789m includes the recent placement and was close enough to our guesstimate of
C$48m to be good enough. The resulting working capital total as at end of C$21.666m makes sense compred
to the IKN house forecast of C$30m, as assets were on our guess and liabilities were higher because of my
brainfart about those gold notes.
WRLG: Cash treasury & working cap
Finally, the share count was slightly higher than our
assumption and will now move to around 398.7m by the
end of the year as a few million warrants and options
have been made whole since the end of the quarter. As
for the P+L results, they came as per the IKN house
estimates. We’d guesstimated C$33m in sales, C$20m in
COGs and after other minor items, a mine operating
income of C$12m. The reality of C$32.479m in sales,
C$20.704m in COGS and a MOI of C$10.969m is more
than close enough, especially at this non-commercial
production stage.
Operationally, for mined grade WRLG told us it had
mined 35,700 tonnes in Q3 at an average of 5.4 g/t
and both of those are fine by me. It also allows us
to refine this chart of monthly mined tonnages, as in
its previous NR WRLG told us October had been
24% better than September. That puts the company
on course for commercial production in 2026 and
perhaps even in December (though I strongly
suspect they’ll leave that official declaration for
January 1st).
And now for the only yellow flag found in the Q3
numbers, so let’s quote the literature directly:
Please note WRLG processed 39,000 tonnes at an average of 4.2 g/t gold, while mining 37,700 tonnes at 5.4
g/t. It also WRLG produced 5,267 oz gold and sold
7,050 oz, but that final difference is less important
(quarter-over-quarter lags happen). The issue is the
way WRLG leaned heavily on its stockpile in the way
it did, which shows here (right). Now I get that
WRLG is ramping up, I also get that October
tonnages were a lot better and probably enough to
feed the mill completely. I also get that the Shaft
Renovation kicks in soon, that the company is now
storing more waste in depleted underground zones
22
146.1 753.4 580.72 29.61 903.61 848.3
407.74
698.52 88.63 822.81 796.32
987.54
63
50
45
40
35
30
25
20 15 10
5
0
-5
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 tse52q4
C$m
WRLG: Shares out (m)
cash&eq
working cap
source: company filings, IKN ests
868.41 20.25 744.65 851.481 371.512 641.322 532.962 83.172 878.813 74.343 10.843 714.293 7.893
500
450
400
350
300
250 200 150
100
50
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 tse52q4
source: company financials, IKN ests
C$m WRLG: Mine ops
40
Revs 32.479 35
COGS
30
Mine Op Inc 24.315
25 20.704
20 15.297
15 10.969
8.568
10
5 2.1071.2860.788
0
1q25 2q25 3q25
source: company filings
WRLG: Mined ore per month
9.9 01
9.51
4.8
5.31 8.31
1.71 5.71 81 02
mmt
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6 4
2
0
April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'26
source: WRLG filings, IKN ests
C$m WRLG: Inventory
12
10 mat&supplies
metal in circuit
8 ore stockpile
6
4
2
0
4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25 3q25
source: company filings
and that it’s only recently taken delivery of another scoop, which should add more daily tonnage capacity to
the mine. All those things are reasons to be cheerful and to expect WRLG will be able to deliver on its plans
in Q4 and beyond. However, it must be said that the company depleted its over ground stockpile in Q3 is
notable, from a dollar value of C$3.607m to C$0.452m (as well as a drop of almost C$1.3m in metal-in-
circuit), means there's less leeway and margin for error as we get to the crunch point of commercial
production.
Effectively, this points to what has always been the Achilles' heel of Madsen, the ability to get correctly
grading tonnes above ground. I like the way CEO Shane Williams is going about the job in 2025, opening
multiple stopes in order to allow for greater flexibility, making closer drilling to define the resource and
making it clear to one and all they would go about the ramp-up in a gradual way. That's all good, but at this
point in the affair you'd want to see stockpiles increasing, not decreasing and certainly not to the extent seen
in that chart. Grade control was the issue that sank Pure Gold, the mineralization at Madsen is complicated
and pinches/swells and deviates, they need to have a margin of error in their tonnages to make sure they get
at least 5600 tonnes per day at the correct grade above ground. As such, that chart above is a yellow flag,
not a red flag and we should wait to see what the company delivers in Q4, but I will be watching mill head
grade (first and foremost) and then tonnes processed like a hawk when the next data drop.
The bottom line: There is some cause for concern at Madsen due to that depletion in stockpiles, but we also
note how insistent the company has been about telling us Q4 tonnages are improving and its gradual ramp to
commercial production is on course. Those two play off each other, as without hard data on the improvement
in mined tonnages in October and the clear reasons to expect better things for the rest of this quarter (the
U/G waste storage, the shaft renovation, the new scoop) I’d be really concerned. It’s still pre-production and
a mine is allowed to be glitchy at this stage, but it now has to deliver strong processed numbers at a grade
inside its model average (5g to 6g per tonne) in Q4 in order to keep my money on board. Any significant
lapse in either of those would turn the yellow flag into a red one. Holding for the next six weeks and during
that time, I expect WRLG will move with the market median.
Gold Royalty (GROY) has a good week
The main fundamental analysis note two weeks ago, “Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): Banging the table” (IKN860
November 16th) told you exactly how much I like this trade at the available price deck. Since then the fuse
took time to burn, but the catalysts combined with one extra ingredient to what we saw Friday:
It may have been a reduced hours trading day on the NYSE, but it didn’t stop GROY from putting in a move
that busted it through the U$4 line in no uncertain fashion and ending the week up. The new ingredient came
on Tuesday evening, with the GROY NR (19) “Gold Royalty Announces Amended and Upsized Revolving
Credit Facility of Up to US$100 Million and Elimination of Debt”. There are plenty of details and nuances, but
when push comes to shove this move from GROY does three things to its balance sheet
Removes the convertible debenture liability, booked at $26.736m as at end 3q25
Adds 23.3m shares to its shares out count
Upsizes its revolving credit facility to $100m (currently drawn to its $25m max)
We like this development, as it complies with GROY's stated intent to reduce its debt load this year. Once the
exit deal is closed, it means $1m less to pay per quarter in service payment and allows GROY flexibility to do
23
deals using the standby credit. The deal was announced on Tuesday but the market didn't move GROY
shares much Wednesday because on a balance sheet basis, it looked more like a neutral rebalancing and
long-term strategy than anything else, but by the time The USA had come back from its Thanksgiving break,
it had worked out the real near-term benefit of the deal.
We’ve already noted the keen interest that crypto giant Tether has taken in GROY recently, so let’s recap the
key moments in Tether’s interest in GROY:
Late October, when Tether disclosed it had built an 8.1% position in GROY
November 3rd, when Tether disclosed it had increased its holding to 17.99m shares, or 10.5% of
share out
November 5th, when GROY triggered its shareholder rights program
Long story short, the Shareholder Rights program effectively allows any third party to take a 15% position
but above that number, they either have to get the GROY board’s permission to buy more or other
shareholders have the right to purchase shares, thereby diluting any 15%+ and moving it away from a
position where it can mount a takeover bid. In other words, GROY is saying to Tether “friendly deal or no
deal” and that implies Tether (or any other entity) pay a premium for the shares it doesn’t own.
However, the debt-for-shares deal cut by GROY last
GROY: Shares out (m)
week also means that Tether has been diluted.
Assuming Tether hasn’t bought any more GROY
shares since November 3rd, it’s been diluted down
to 9.1% of total shares out.
Suddenly, Tether can buy another 11.6m shares and
still stay under its 15% limit. Another small side
effect is that it also needs to declare if it moves back
over the 10% line again. What’s more, a cleaner
balance sheet without a debenture overhang makes
GROY that much more attractive, as does a new
$75m of undrawn credit if it (or any new owner) so desires. So as well as complying with its 2025 objective,
in one fell swoop GROY has allows its deep pocketed stalker to accumulate more shares if it so desires and
also made itself even more attractive as an M&A target. As we know Tether has been aggressive and has
money to burn on its strategy of picking up royaltyco shares, there’s every reason to expect this buyer to
come back to market. And this, along with the general fundies strength, was enough to burn the GROY fuse
and send it higher the way it did on Friday.
Our slated target for the stock is U$5.00, that’s not so far above where we are today and as our envisaged
exit strategy has always been a buyout (Tether/Element again), that target would surely be beaten easily in
the event of a transaction. Last week’s move was supercharged by a rampant market on Friday, but as the
price chart above shows GROY easily beat the median. That’s not something you’ll often see in the
supposedly conservative and defensive royaltyco subsector. The move was fully deserved and with Tether
prowling, there’s more upside in the pipeline. Happy holder.
Conclusion
IKN862 is done, we end with bullet points:
Two purchases to make and a full write-up on Blue Moon (MOON.v) coming your way next weekend.
However, my appreciation of Wesdome at this moment and price is well documented, all that was left to
do was to swallow a little pride, go back on my pledge to stick to sub-billion stocks and buy some. That’s
happening tomorrow.
On reviewing the edition, Orecap (OCI.v) as a risk-adjusted way of playing several up and coming stories
really stands out. We’re up on the deal so far, but it wouldn’t take much more than a strategic entering
McGarry (ZIGY) or the momentum we saw at American Eagle (AE.v) in 2023 happening at MERG.v (or
even a revival of AE or ARIC) for OCI to really get a move on.
24
645.14 126.14
935.27
39.331 52.431 64.431 19.341 19.341 83.441 79.441 79.441 76.541 98.541 70.961 13.961 12.071 94.071 17.071 6.171
22.791 5.791
220
200
180
160
140
120
100 80
60
40
20
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 tse52q4 tse62q1
source: company financials, IKN ests
Also after review, I may indeed be getting too cute with my roadmap for copper. But overbought is as
overbought does and a retrace, albeit temporary, is more likely than not. Timing is difficult, though.
Once again, this issue has taken its sweet time to get to you. Last weekend went better than this one
and I’m beginning to come round to the idea of making Monday, rather than Sunday, the default
publication day (as several of you have suggested). We’re close to the end of 2025, please allow me until
after Christmas to make a final decision on this and remember, you really don’t need me or any other
mining soothsayer to tell you what to do in this market to make money anyway
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if
required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://metalenergy.ca/news-releases/metal-energy-announces-9.3-million-financing-centerra-gold-to-become-a-strategic-
shareholder/
(2) https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2705-cse/zigy/192223-stardust-metal-uncovers-large-never-
drilled-ultramafic-target-adjacent-to-high-grade-kerr-addison-in-kirkland-lake.html
(3) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6d9p7qGQIg
(4) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2025/minera-alamos-reports-third-quarter-results/
(5) https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20251128.pdf
(6) https://www.mining.com/web/china-firmly-opposes-negative-copper-treatment-charges/
(7) https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-top-copper-smelters-to-cut-output-to-combat-negative-processing-fees/
(8) https://energynews.oedigital.com/mining/2025/11/25/asia-copper-womanchina-suspends-some-new-copper-smelters-and-warns-
about-negative-processing-fees
(9) https://discoveryalert.com.au/chinas-copper-smelting-overcapacity-crisis-2025/
(10) https://www.mining.com/copper-price-in-london-hits-new-high-amid-bullish-calls/
(11) https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/copper-key-takeaways-from-webinar-on-2026-market-outlook/
(12) https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/solgold/news/rns/story/ry33oyx
(13) https://coppergiant.co/copper-giant-announces-updated-mocoa-inferred-mineral-resource-of-1-1-billion-tonnes-at-0-51-cueq-0-31-
cu-and-0-039-mo/
(14) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-announces-resolution-of-its-disputes-with-mali/default.aspx
(15) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-announces-board-changes/default.aspx
(16) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-announces-evaluation-of-an-IPO-of-its-north-
american-gold-assets/default.aspx
(17) https://www.mogotesmetals.com/news/drilling-now-at-filo-sur-project
(18) https://www.latercera.com/politica/noticia/la-encuesta-real-es-la-del-14-de-diciembre-comando-de-jara-reacciona-a-los-sondeos-
que-muestran-ventaja-de-kast/
(19) https://www.goldroyalty.com/news/news-releases/gold-royalty-announces-amended-and-upsized-revolving-credit-facility-of-up-to-
us100-million-and-elimination-of-debt
25
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
26
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
27
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
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Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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