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The IKN Weekly
Week 856, October 19th 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads up, In today’s edition, CPI this week, The music didn’t stop on Friday (with Monday
update).
Fundamental Analysis: Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): Why we own a loser.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to):
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Latin Metals (LMS.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview.
The Producer Basket: Overview, B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), Newmont (NEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Endurance Gold (EDG.v).
Regional Politics: Bolivia elections: And the winner is…, Peru protests its corrupted government, An
Argentina slang lesson, Argentina: Trump’s government tries to tip the election toward Milei.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads up
Despite making it clear in today’s intro section that our task is to Keep Dancing and that hasn’t changed, I am
making a small adjustment to the portfolio by selling Provenance Gold (PAU.cse). The rationale is in today’s
Stocks to Follow notes.
In today’s edition
 These junior mining stocks are all well and good, but what’s the gold price going to do? That’s the only
thing that really matters in the week ahead for our sector, we considcer the issue in the intro section.
 The main Fundies section tries to explain why we own Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to), despite it being a
train wreck of a company in the last few years. Price determines value, now and always.
 A stand-out of the tough Friday, Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) swam against the tide and saw a good
price pop on the back of news of an incoming strategic investor. Your author, contrary to the bone, is
using the window to sell the trade and take profits on a small but successful fliptrade. Stocks to Follow
notes for that one.
 Take a deep breath on Thursday evening and watch the wires for the Newmont (NEM) 3q25 financials.
A good showing from the sector’s big dog will be an important fillip for all of our stocks as we move
into earnings season, whereas a poor reception for its numbers will be…well, I prefer not to think
about that for the time being. A primer on NEM in today’s Producer Basket.
 Regional Politics has its eye on next weekend’s big event, the Argentina mid-term election that’s
essentially a referendum on Javier Milei’s government to date. With the recent sag in the polls and
embarrassing loss in the Buenos Aires provincial election, Milei’s star has faded somewhat and it’s a
very tough call on who will win out next weekend, but if President Trump has anything to do with it
Milei will come out strengthened and ready to continue with the deep reforms in Argentina. And it
turns out that President Trump and a lot to do with it.
 Other things as well. There are always other things.
1

CPI this week
A small reminder of the note made last week that, despite the ongoing US government shutdown, we can
expect the US BLS to give us the CPI reading for last month in the days ahead. Guidance is for +0.3%. It’s
also notable how little life changes when the US public sector is shut down, but that interesting subject is
better left for another day.
The music didn’t stop on Friday
Speaking personally, this trope is getting a little stale. It’s useful enough, “Keep Dancing Until The Music
Stops” encapsulates a trading concept well
enough, we’ve gone over the thinking behind
it in the last few editions and then last week,
what to look out for at the denouement.
However, at some point it becomes hackneyed
and loses its charm so don’t be surprised if
the catch line gets quietly dropped in the next
few weeks. Still, we’re using it today, if only to
follow on from last piece that attempted to
answer the question “How do we know when
the music has stopped?”, because last week
gold did this (right).
Gold continued to move up, then accelerated
into Thursday, peaked at nearly U$4.400/oz
(on this December Comex chart, the most
liquid futures contract out there) and proceeded to drop hard on Friday, touching U$42,00/oz before
spending the day in a rare old battle between bulls and bears in
the space between 4200 and 4300. One of the points made last
weekend in the intro was about the patterns we’d want to see
(or better said, not want to see) to discern the true top of a
market. Part of that was this visual (right) and what we saw on
(Thursday and) Friday fits closely to the first part of the pattern
we see in the “not good” red box; acceleration to a blow-off top
and then a sharp drop. However, it still doesn’t qualify as the
end of the dance because we now need to see whether the
market can shake off the nerves caused by the Friday dump and
work its way back to new high prices. I cannot stress this
enough, I hope a new high happens slowly and the last thing I’d
want at this point is a gold price that zooms back toward the
U$4,400/oz line next week, or a Newmont (NEM) share price that
threatens to take out U$98 (see Producer Basket below). Instead,
the more robust bullish situation would be to see gold fiddle around
the current U$4,200/oz to U$4,300/oz level for a while,
consolidating this level before pushing on again. As for the stocks,
for sure they were jolted on Friday but I’d argue that on the whole,
the market had gold prices for 3q25 baked into the equity prices
(GDX et al), which strictly speaking averages around U$3,476/oz so
let’s call that U$3,500/oz. In other words, on a pure value basis the
Tier 1 and Tier 2 producers can stomach a 17% to 20% gold price
drop and still return the type of financial performance.
If you spent the day watching the market and reading social media
(like I did…for one thing I wasn’t tempted to trade anything on
Friday in the slightest), you’d have read all sorts of prophets of
doom coming out of the woodwork and claiming the death of the
gold bull run. There were all types of angles to the market calls
against gold and you’re not getting the List Of Fear here, but in and
2

amongst them there were a few voices trying to add some reason and calm. For example, your author
(right).
However I don’t claim originality (or a massive online following, either), there were other people out there on
Friday suggesting that a single sharp drop in the price of gold doesn’t mean the music has stopped. For what
it’s worth, I thought this brief post was particularly useful:
Now don’t get me wrong, I definitely not dismissing out of hand the potential that we’ve just seen the
maximum price for gold and from here it’s downhill. It would mean this message at the end of IKN855’s intro
last week, “…talking about a top doesn’t mean I’m predicting one and for the record, I don’t expect to need
the information in today’s intro section anytime soon”, were incorrect but that’s also okay, I can handle being
wrong and JM Keynes (potentially misattributed) “When the facts change I change my mind” is the way
forward. However, what I do know is that what we saw on Friday is not enough to bring the “Keeping
Dancing” strategy to a close. Yes, I’m going to pay close attention to the market this coming week and yes, if
we get the sort of three-quarters rebound to a lower high and then another dump to a lower low (as seen in
my sketch graph above) then that would change things. But not yet and certainly not when the market
showed plenty of signs of overreaction last week, not mere reaction.
Update Monday evening: With the report going out a day late (again), it would be remiss of me not to
make at least some mention of what we witnessed in gold today Monday. Here’s an updated price chart:
It was an amazing day at market, watching gold rebound and make up virtually every dollar lost on Friday.
There are all sorts of theories out there as to why and market sages far wiser than I are not debating “the
gold question”, financial heavy hitters that don’t normally care much about what the monetary metal does (or
why, for that matter). I’m not going to join in that particular debate as “I do not occupy myself with things
too great and too marvellous for me.” Instead, I limit myself to being a little more nervous about an eventual
blow-off top forming. Clearly, what we saw on Friday was not that and the speed in which gold recovered
today negates the “lower high” argument completely, but it was probably too fast for comfort and smacks of
the mania we saw on Thursday again. Long story short, I would have preferred gold not to have recovered at
such breakneck speed and while we are still most definitely remaining on the dance floor and the music is still
playing loudly, it was another yellow flag today. A market to watch closely.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): Why we own a loser
“So sorry I am late, Dorian. I went to look after a piece of old
brocade in Wardour Street, and had to bargain for hours for it.”
“Nowadays people know the price of
everything, and the value of nothing."
The Picture of Dorian Gray, Oscar Wilde, 1890
3

Today’s main section covers the stock we bought two weeks ago, as the original note announcing the call on
Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to) (AZMCF) in IKN854 dated October 5th, the prosaic “Buying Arizona Metals
Corp”, was more about the macro strategy and the concept that filtered the stock to my attention and then to
the point where I was happy about buying. That’s best summed up by one of the intro paragraphs from the
IKN854 Fundies section
“…our thoughts turn to the next stage in a long-term bull market when stocks don’t move up despite
being inferior, instead they move up because they are inferior. This third wave of stock gains are the
ones with even more imperfect stories but, as prices rise across the board, the market looks back and
considers the true laggards with new eyes. Nobody doubts the issues that still may plague this third
wave but instead of making these stocks untouchable, the metals price deck and the lag compared to
peers combine and creative capitalism starts to find ways to fix the problems and revalue the
stories.”
This strategy become even more apt, as at the time of IKN854 gold was still trading under U$4,000/oz
(seems so long ago, doesn’t it?). The rotation through the market, starting with the biggest and best, is now
at the point where even severely damaged companies and stories get to catch a bid and that’s where AMC
comes in to the picture. But before we get too far, let’s cover a few basics about this company and its assets
starting with our standard corporate structure top box:
Shares out: 137.7m
Options: 5.25m
Warrants: Zero
RSU/DSUs: 0.84m
Fully diluted: 143.79m
Current share price: C$0.73
Market Cap: C$100.5m
Approx cash per S/O: 14c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated, forex CAD$1 = USD 0.73
The above is one of the positives about this company, a
AMC.to: Shares Out
reasonably tight structure, not much in the way of
derivatives and a decent amount of cash in the treasury.
A share count that hasn’t been blow out with the
passage of time is also an obvious bonus and as seen
right, aside the slow creep due to options awards
becoming whole (they include drilling contractors
payments) there have only been two moments when the
count has increased by any great measure, first in 2022
when 7.5m or so were added and then in 4q24, when
AMC ran a bought deal and sold 15.93m shares at
C$1.70 apiece, raising gross proceeds of C$27.08m.
Continuing with the basic information on AMC and as for assets, its flagship is the 100% owned Kay project
in (surprise) Arizona but notably in this case, 100% means 100% as there are no underlying royalties on the
deposit. It's a past producing mine and a polymetallic VMS (volcanic massive sulphide) deposit with potential
payables from copper, gold, zinc, silver and lead. It's a fair to label it a “classic VMS”, which also implies there
should be similar deposits near to the identified mineralization and indeed, AMC has been working the drill on
the nearby "Kay 2" target with the aim of finding more of the same and adding to tonnage in the zone. As
well as the flagship Kay (and Kay2), AMC owns an interesting second string project, the Sugarloaf Peak
project, also in Arizona. It’s an open pit gold oxide project with a historical resource (i.e. not 43-101
compliant) estimated at 100m short tons grading 0.5 g/t, implying a contained resource of 1.5m oz gold. To
date, AMC has focused most of its efforts on Kay, but the company has recently announced it is going to do
more work on Sugarloaf Peak in the near future, which at current gold prices makes a lot of sense.
Moving on, we now consider the share price action in AMC to get a handle on why the stock has performed
badly (or if you prefer, badly enough to give us this buying window). The company has taken a series of hits
to the share price indeed, the long-term chart (below, we go back three years) shows near one-way traffic,
4
0.501 5.801 8.111 1.511 0.611 0.611 0.611 0.611 5.611 8.811 8.911 4.021 7.631 7.631 7.731 8.731 8.731
200
180
160
140
120
100
80 60
40
20
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3 tse52q4
source: company filings
serahs
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with arguably the only respite in early 2024 when current CEO Duncan Middlemiss (who turned Wesdome
into the success story it is today) took over and brought with him new “bet the jockey” fans.
Some of the downward slope can be attributed to the bearish backdrop for mining stocks until 2024, but
other parts of this sorry story are of the company’s own making. For one, the retail fans brought in by the
change at the top has become a double-edged sword, as the support for a Rock Star management team from
a couple of well-known and high traffic mining newsletters has gone sour recently, the aforementioned
C$1.70 bought deal and continued downward price action after its close an apparent last straw. The
deterioration of its relationship came to a head during and after the shareholder rebellion earlier this year
that saw three of the directors voted down at the AGM on June 26th this year. The fact shareholders were
annoyed enough to get proactive is bad enough, but AMC then added insult to injury with its reaction to the
directors’ ouster.
The three directors in question received 35% support and 65% (give or take a percentage point), to which
AMC announced (1) that “Although they did not receive a majority of votes cast for their respective re-
elections, Mr. Pilmer, Ms. Arnold and Ms. Rojas Espinoza have each graciously agreed to continue to act as
members of the Company’s board of directors (the “Board”), and Mr. Pilmer has agreed to continue in his role
as Chair of the Audit Committee of the Board, in order to facilitate a seamless and orderly transition, in
accordance with the Canada Business Corporations Act.” Apparently, AMC argued that if it were left with just
three directors it could not perform its tasks correctly, which is of course nonsense (especially for an
exploreco with no income). The high-handed attitude caused more sellers to dump ship and then selling
accelerated when just days later (June 30th), AMC announced the Maiden Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE)
for the flagship Kay deposit (2) with numbers that didn’t impress the market. More on that below.
The last substantive NR we’ve had from the company came on September 15th, when AMC announced (3)
less-than amazing drill results from the Kay 2 exploration project, as well as the definitive exit of the three
ousted directors and the arrival of one new director (and how 4 works perfectly but 3 is an logistical
impossibility was not explained to us). Then away from the direct influence of the company, the final boot
into the AMC share price was given by the
market, when the big GDXJ ETF de-listed it from
its holdings and unceremoniously dumped its
shares onto the open market. That caused the
final drop to the lows we saw in late September
of 60c and under. Those show on this two-
month chart, but we also see the recent
rebound as AMC has finally started to catch a
bid and get some traction, mainly due to
ambulance chasing carrion crows such as your
author, feeding off the pain of others. We made
our move on October 5th when AMC stood at
63c, managed to grab some the next day at 68c
before it moved above the 70c line and since
then it’s been trading fairly reasonably, with the
Friday fun bringing it down a little to the 73c price of this weekend.
5

We have one final task to do before moving from
the first “How Did AMC Get In This Mess?” section to
the more important second section; “Why Buy This
Mess?” and that’s to consider more closely just why
Kay dumped the way it did on the news of the MRE
on June 30th. This price chart covering April to
September this year is our visual aid and while it has
other red scribble, the main event and big drop is
the “2025 Kay Resource update” in the centre,
which changed a C$1.40 stock into a C$1.00 stock.
There are other matters in the MRE that didn’t help
the news that day, but we cut to the chase and
show the main prpblem, via the resource table as published that day:
At first sight not the most impressive of polymetallic VMS deposits, but it’s not bad either and considering it
uses a cut-off of 1.0% CuEq, its overall 3.18% CuEq indicated resource passes the economics smell test. The
presumed metals prices are reasonable as well, AMC framing its supposed main metal copper at an okay
U$4.10/lb, then gold at a low U$2,200/oz, zinc at an okay U$1.35/lb, silver at a low U$26/oz and lead at a
potentially high U$1.00/lb (but that and silver are minor metals in the revenues mix).
The problem was one of expectations, as to that time the world had framed Kay on its historic estimate that
dated back to 1982 and was measured by Exxon Minerals. To quote AMC it was a "proven and probable
reserve of 6.4 million short tons at a grade of 2.2% copper, 2.8 g/t gold, 3.03% zinc, and 55 g/t silver."
That’s around 5.81m metric tonnes so in other words, the Maiden indicated resource delivered in June may
have grown by 60% but the metals grades are significantly lower, with the presumed 2.2% Cu now 0.97%
and the 2.8 g/t gold now 1.39 g/t, to name but two. This turned out to be the last straw for many and when
retail stomped off in a huff, dragging down the shares, it weakened AMC’s price to the point where GDXJ
could no longer justify its own ownership.
Why own AMC
Which is where we find ourselves today. There are other moving parts to the story, but the above covers the
main reasons as to why AMC has been such a poor performer in a year when you’d expect miners, especially
those connected to the hot metals like gold and copper. to excel. It’s now time to lay out the reasons why I’m
a buyer and they start with:
It’s cheap. But not only that, this company’s projects are far from dead and there’s significant news flow in
the pipeline. We haven’t had a NR for over a month, but according to the latest corporate presentation dated
October 2025 there’s potential market moving news in the pipeline. Firstly, on the back of the MRE from June
AMC will present a PEA for the Kay project in 4q25, in other words anytime now. Secondly, the company has
started to drill at second string Sugarloaf Peak for the first time in a long time, indeed it has a designated
budget of C$3m for drilling alone at the project. The company starts with reverse circulation (RC) drills “to
extend mineralization both along strike and to depth and to verify historic drilling”, in other words they’re
aiming to make the gold oxide resource bigger and to bring it up to 43-101 reporting standards. This is part
of a “full evaluation of Sugarloaf Peak”, which may or may not include a first pass at the presumed sulphide
gold rock that sits below the oxide at Sugarloaf Peak and could be big. In this market, news of a large and
presumably economic gold deposit in AZ USA that’s getting precious little attributed value is the type of extra
ball that can add significant value to a stock price.
6

It’s got decent financials: Often with a “broken stock” story, I’ll open up the financials and see a balance
sheet mess, signs of profligate spending in past quarters or a blown out share structure. This time there’s
none of that and along with the share chart as seen above, we now run a few of our Usual Suspect charts to
prove the point
Assets and liabilities look like this and let’s do the easy one first, liabilities are tiny and consist entirely of
standard accounts due items typical of any working company. An optimal situation.
AMC.to: Assets
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
As for assets, AMC expenses everything so fixed assets are tiny. Another very small line item is “cash&eq”, as
the company takes a more prudent path with its cash pile and leaves the lion’s share of its funds in an
interest-bearing account. As seen above, “invest” makes up the vast majority of the assets ledger and below
left is the dataset isolated, while below right we see the interest generated oer quarter from the policy. While
not a king’s ransom (and more lucrative back in 2022 and 2023 when inflation saw banks offer higher rates),
it’s a prudent policy and even the C$150k or so in recent quarters helps pay some of the bills. Equally, it
allows a window on the way AMC conducts itself at a corporate level, it’s the type of thing done by level-
headed companies with smart CFOs.
With hardly any liabilities and no fixed assets to speak of, the cash+investment cash is essentially its working
capital and here’s that data set, with a couple of forward quarters added to show where we’re going. We
forecast AMC to end 2025 with around C$13m in working capital, which on the one hand would be enough to
see it run through a couple of quarters of 2026 if necessary. On the other, we see that this is the level at
which it went to market in 4q24 so at some point we’re
going to see it go back to market to raise more capital. If I
were a betting man, I’d assume 1q26 or post-PDAC at
latest. Between now and then, we’ll get the Kay PEA and
potentially some newsflow from Sugarloaf Peak, so I’d also
guess Middlemiss and crew are looking to get some
momentum going and raising at higher prices than today.
As for what AMC spends its money on, here’s the chart:
7
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
$m Fixed AMC.to: Liabilities per qtr
invest 5
other current 4.5
4 cash
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: company filings
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AMC.to: Investment cash, per qtr
722.54 746.54 430.24 744.83 745.92 978.42 398.91
70.41
367.33 624.92 426.42
50
45
40
35
30
25 20 15
10
5
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
AMC: Interest earned, per qtr
24.0 683.0 414.0 995.0 223.0
462.0
771.0 141.0 361.0 561.0
C$m
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3 0.2
0.1
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25
source: company filings
55 AMC.to: Working Capital per qtr
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3 tse52q4
source company filings
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C$m AMC.to: Operating expenses other exp
share payments
11 prof fees
10 G&A
salaries&benefits
9
other explore&eval
8 Kay drilling
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25
source: company filings
It fluctuates a little, and there’s also the 4q23 outlier, but in ballpark terms AMC burns between C$5m and
C$6m per quarter. Not bad at all considering more than 50%
of its spend goes straight into the ground at Kay (i.e. exactly AMC.to: Spend on drilling at Kay, per qtr
where I’d want a junior exploreco to burn its cash). And
please note, this chart (right) showing “Spend on drilling at
Kay, per qtr” is only drilling, as the other line items
connected with exploration and evaluation (camp costs,
assays, consulting, concession fees, etc) are carried in a
separate line item above. That’s a parsimonious exploreco at
work, directing its cash to where it matters and along with
the signal garnered from the interest earned on investment,
shows AMC as a well-run entity.
Putting a value on Kay
We now come to the reason why I think this stock is a worthy speculative vehicle at its current share price.
The way AMC was sold down after its MRE publication would suggest to the outside world that Kay is an
unprofitable project and while the lower grades didn’t impress, the rising metals prices mean there’s still
plenty of meat on this bone. With the upcoming PEA about to hit, our task today is to pre-empt the first
official economic study on Kay and show what it’s capable of achieving moneywise.For that we have to make
some fairly wide ballpark assumptions and as such, I’ve erred on the side of caution in many aspects of the
house model.
Tonnage throughout is modest, the cost assumptions are much higher than AMC seems to want to use and
we pad in other conservative assumptions along the way, too. Here’s a list of major assumptions, on which
we’ve built a model:
Mill throughput of 2,500tpd: That's sure to increase if/when AMC meets with success at Kay2, or expands
the current Kay mineralization with drilling at depth, but today we're going with the MRE as stands and
ballpark the PEA it's going to deliver in a few weeks' time. A 2,500tpd throughput implies annual tonnage of
900,000 and gives Kay a mine life of ten years, or eleven and a bit if we include the inferred resource.
For metals grades and recoveries, we take our cue from the June 30th MRE:
 Copper grade of 0.97% and recoveries of 92%, as per the recent MRE parameters
 Gold grade of 1.39 g/t and recoveries of 76%, as per the recent MRE parameters.
 Zinc grade of 2.39% and recoveries of 85%, as per the recent MRE parameters.
 Silver grade of 27.6 g/t and recoveries of 75%, as per the recent MRE parameters.
 Lead grade of 0.33% and recoveries of 76%, as per the recent MRE parameters.
Costs in our model are significantly higher than the assumptions used by AMC in its recent MRE. To
achieve its cut-off of 1.0% CuEq using the modest metals prices noted above, AMC also assumed a total cost
of U$78 per tonne of mineralized material, a number that covers everything from mining to milling to
transport, treatment and refining. Considering this is a medium-scale underground VMS that looks to produce
five payable metals, that looks way too low. We up the ante considerably by assuming U$80/mt COGS, then
another U$20/mt for G&A, then 20% deduction from the gross metal total for the middleman charges of
8
162.4 748.3 193.3
216.6
028.2 238.2 528.3 43.5 318.3 800.4 415.4 684.3 773.3 347.2
7
6
5
4
3 2
1
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
C$m
source: company filings

TC/RC, transport and marketing (the equivalent of U$67/tonne at current metals prices). So instead of
U$78/t, we go U$167/t at current metals prices and the reason we go so hard on costs is threefold:
Firstly, AMC's assumptions look optimized to within an inch of their lives (to put it diplomatically). Secondly,
the higher metals prices allow us to assume higher costs and in fact, they all-but demand them. And thirdly,
even after pushing costs a lot higher we add extra leeway, because that's the way we prefer to do things in
our financial models. This way leaves the surprises to the upside, it also shows whether the (potential) mine
survive financially stressed periods. At this PEA level, it's common to see mining companies put their best foot
forward (again, diplomatic me) but they use as much guesswork on future price inputs as anyone else...we
just pitch lower and compensate by considering the project at the current metals price deck.
As for capex, we assume AMC builds its mine by raising capital 50/50 debt equity. In our model that
manifests as a share count of 300m S/O and annual interest servicing charges of U$30m.
Other parameters include forex at CAD$ = USD 0.73, an effective tax rate of 18%, a 4% State royalty
(Arizona State charges a minimum 2% NSR, but it can go to 6% and depends on the project, we take a
rough guess), worker's participation bonus of 8% EBIT, depreciation a flat U$20m per annum (educated
guess) and a modest U$10m in average annual sustaining capital.
Once we have all those, we run the numbers through four price deck assumptions that we call “Stress”,
“Base”, “Today” and “Blue Sky”. Those names should be fairly self-explanatory to an audience of this esteem
and here are the price assumptions for the five payable metals in each case, plus a word or two:
1) Stress test case:
 Copper U$3.70/lb
 Gold U$3,200/oz
 Zinc U$1.00/lb
 Silver U$35/oz
 Lead U$0.90/lb
Normally a less important price deck, but this time I’m keen on showing how a reversion in the metals price
environment might hit AMC at Kay and whether it would be able to withstand such a drop.
2) Base case:
 Copper U$4.00/lb
 Gold U$3,500/oz
 Zinc U$1.20/lb
 Silver U$40/oz
 Lead U$0.90/lb
This one is more of a logical low price deck at the moment. I’d expect AMC at Kay to be able to turn a decent
profit and justify financial backing. Indeed, I’d expect this is the major hurdle Kay would have to surmount in
order to get financing.
3) Today case:
 Copper U$5.00/lb
 Gold U$4.000/oz
 Zinc U$1.40/lb
 Silver U$50/oz
 Lead U$1.00/lb
It’s not exact, but this desk is a rough approximation of what’s out there today. This is the desk I’ve chosen
for my own purposes and its results are shaded in cream/yellow on the tables.
Blue sky case:
 Copper U$5.50/lb
 Gold U$4,500/oz
 Zinc U$1.60/lb
 Silver U$60/oz
 Lead U$1.20/lb
9

For those of you that dare to dream. These higher-end assumptions may be too modest for you and you
think 5k gold and 4100/oz silver is the way forward, I’ll take it all step by step.
The first thing to do is work out how much money comes from the metals mined and being a polymetallic
mine with five likely payable metals, it gets a little complicated. This table tried to see through the confusion:
AMC at Kay: Model Year Revenues & Op Income (U$m)
Price Deck Stress Base Today Blue Sky
gold (Oz) 30,571 30,571 30,571 30,571
U$/oz 3200 3500 4000 4500
gold revs $97.8 $107.0 $122.3 $137.6
copper tonnes 8,032 8,032 8,032 8,032
copper Mlbs 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7
U$/lb 3.70 4.00 5.00 5.50
copper revs $65.5 $70.8 $88.5 $97.3
zinc tonnes 18,284 18,284 18,284 18,284
zinc Mlbs 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3
U$/lb 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60
zinc revs $40.3 $48.3 $56.4 $64.4
silver (Oz) 599,035 599,035 599,035 599,035
U$/oz 35 40 50 60
silver revs $21.0 $24.0 $30.0 $35.9
lead tonnes 2,257 2,257 2,257 2,257
lead Mlbs 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
U$/lb 0.90 0.90 1.00 1.20
lead revs $4.5 $4.5 $5.0 $6.0
Metals subtotal (U$m) $229.1 $254.5 $302.1 $341.2
TC/RC etc (U$m) $45.8 $50.9 $60.4 $68.2
Revenue total (U$m) $183.2 $203.6 $241.7 $273.0
Sources: AMC data, IKN calcs and estimates
We present the metals in order of revenues importance and the first thing to note is that gold brings in more
revenue than any other metal. That’s no small thing either, as to date Kay has been regarded as a copper
VMS with gold and other kickers. We predict that when the PEA arrives, the way gold takes over will raise a
few eyebrows and bring this story to the attention of a wider audience. Zinc is another big contributor to the
revenues mix, while silver is brings in between 9% and 11%. Lead will be a small revenue contributor, but its
place in the circuit is highly likely as other metals (e.g. gold and silver) are likely to report to that
concentrate.
At the “Today” price deck, that brings in an average annual gross metals revenues of U$302.1m. We then get
heavy with that 20% charge for TC/RC, transport and marketing and at our preferred “Today” deck,
U$241.7m moves forward to our model P+L:
AMC at Kay: Condensed Income statement model (U$m)
item Stress Base Today Blue Sky
Sales (U$m) 183.2 203.6 241.7 273.0
COGS 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0
Depreciation 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
SGA+R&D 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0
NSR 7.3 8.1 9.7 10.9
10

Op income (U$m) 55.9 75.5 112.0 142.1
Interest 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Workers Part. 2.1 3.6 6.6 9.0
Tax 4.3 7.5 13.6 18.6
Net income (U$m) 19.6 34.3 61.9 84.5
Shares out 300 300 300 300
EPS 0.07 0.11 0.21 0.28
Sust. Capex 15 15 15 15
FCF 0.18 0.23 0.32 0.40
Sources: AMC data, IKN calcs & estimates
Even when we stack costs to levels much higher than the company assumptions, it’s clear that the high
metals prices at present make all the difference to AMC. The small annual EPS of 7c at the stress test price
deck is not going to support even the current share price, but it does show the mine can keep ticking over
and making modest money if things go bad (and financial backers will like that). But Kay comes into its own
as metals prices rise and using our “today” deck, we can expect the mine to throw of U$112m per year in
operating profits and a net income of just under U$62m. That’s a lot when your market cap is U$74m.
As for a price target, I’m not going to make this official in any way, it’s way too early to start placing exact
figures on an eventual mine here, but to give the roughest of ideas here how the tagrte price box came out:
Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data for AMC.to based on
Year stress base today bluesky Kay and the "Today" price deck
Sales (U$m) 183 204 242 273 price target $1.61 based on 6x EPS
Sales growth 11% 19% 13% Upside to target 120%
EPS 0.07 0.11 0.21 0.28 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $101 Enterprise value $83
FCF 0.18 0.23 0.32 0.40 P/sales (stress) 0.49 EV/sales (stress) 0.41
P/E (stress) 11.2 EV/EBITDA (stress) 1.1
P/E (base) 6.4 EV/EBITDA (base) 0.9
P/E (today) 3.5 EV/EBITDA (today) 0.6
I think a 6x EPS is reasonable and if so, that’s a C$1.61 target potential. This isn’t a hard and fast target and
a lot depends on the other moving parts of AMC (for one thing, Sugarloaf Peak is valued at zero dollars in the
above), but it’s a start and most importantly, it gives a reasonable feel for what we’re going to get from AMC
when its PEA lands. When it does, I expect the company to use lower costs parameters than mine and
perhaps bump up the throughout assumption to 3k or 4k tonnes per day. Those will help the economics
sparkle, as will using higher metals prices in the way I’ve done.
Discussion and conclusion
It can be a dangerous activity to buy a company just because it’s an “undervalued stock”, because there’s
normally a very good reason why it’s being priced lower than its peers. In this case, however, AMC looks
genuinely undervalued and not just because it’s gone through a series of negative circumstances, some its
own doing and some not, but because its flagship asset really isn’t as bad as people have made out in the
last few months and part of my investment thesis rests on the probability that when the PEA arrives, people
will be duly impressed by the project economics compared to the current market cap. The parameters we use
are reasonable and err to the side of caution in many areas, but the difference made to Kay project
economics by the recent rise in metals prices is obvious on the spreadsheet and will become apparent to a
wider audience. As just one example, the polymetallic VMS at Kay is understood by the market to be a
“copper plus other” proposition, so observers will get a jolt when they realize that at current prices, gold
would be the biggest payable from the mine and just that reclassification in the people’s minds, a Kay that is
in fact a “gold plus other” project, brings a totally new aspect.
Is it the best thing out there? No, it’s not but the same token it’s a decent and reasonable deposit that has a
real shot at making it off the drawing board. This is far from a broken stock and if we add in the extra
leverage that Sugarloaf Mountain might bring in the next quarter or two (even a modest U$20/oz in situ
11

valuation on that puts C$40m on the market cap) the potential for a quick recovery move in this mega-bullish
gold market is obvious.
The bottom line: The opening trade in Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to) has started well enough, but the
strategy now shifts to the reaction we expect when the company delivers the PEA on Kay. Largely berated
and criticized in late June for the lower than expected grades, the metals price move since then has more
than made up for the grade drop and we can expect AMC to deliver some impressive economic numbers that
are likely to surprise the market. Even our highly conservative criteria justify a share price recovery at the
current metals prices, and I’m sure we’ll see more optimized items from the company to make them stand
out further. I’m likely to add AMC shares in the next few weeks and build a position, but it’s not going to be a
longer-term conviction trade. This is more about taking advantage of an unloved and under-valued stock at a
low point in its public standing, then selling them back to the market when it starts to re-gain true believers.
At C$100m this is a very cheap stock and it won’t take much to see it move back to the Lonnie-plus level,
after that we’ll see how far momentum and this rampant metals bull market can carry it.
Stocks to Follow
It was all going so well until Friday. The dump in gold affected all metals and mining stocks, unsurprisingly
the juniors and their leverage took a bigger average hit than the larger miners and, as The IKN Weekly
Stocks to Follow are populated by those companies, it turned another potential winning week into a loser.
That said, it was far from the worst week on record; the eleven losers (RIO.to, ARG.to, MARI.to, GROY,
WRLG.v, AU.v, AMX.to, XXIX.v, OCI.v, PGDC.v, MENE.v) outnumbered the five winners (MAI.v, RPX.v, SRL.v,
LMS.v, PAU.cse) easily, but there were no big losers on the roster and indeed, the only double figure
percentage mover on the week was the win registered in Provenance Gold (PAU.cse up 11.8%).
There are still 17 open positions on our Stocks to Follow list, three under our self-imposed maximum. Three
of the stocks are in the red, the others are in the green.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$2.01 151.3% Re-rated to new $4.13 tgt
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.465 121.4% $0.70 tgt no longer top pick
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$2.70 75.3% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$11.19 266.9% Quality Cu dev, FS due
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$3.49 149.3% 2nd target U$5 in 2026
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.88 20-Jul-25 C$1.00 13.6% 2 adds, re-rate trade, $1.44tgt
Aurion Res AU.v STR BUY C$1.15 21-Sep-25 C$1.06 -7.8% new trade on WWAD
Arizona Metals AMC.to STR BUY C0.68 5-Oct-25 C$0.73 7.4% new trade on bull mkt dynamic
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.12 8-Sep-24 C$0.175 45.8% Added more Sep & Oct'25
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.16 100.0% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.25 31.6% proj.generator, Organullo spec
Provenance Gold PAU.cse SELLING C$0.15 27-Aug-25 C$0.285 90.0% TAKING PROFITS
XXIX Metal XXIX.v spec buy C$0.095 27-Aug-25 C$0.12 26.3% new trade on copper & land
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.09 50.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.15 650.0% Rio Negro gold developer
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.23 -48.9% LT bet, adding slowly
12

CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
Minera Alamos MAI.v Aug'25 C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% lightened overweight position
Surge Copper SURG.v Sep'25 $0.105 22-Dec24 C$0.215 104.8% took profits, good result
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on the featured companies but not so much this time around, the market is all about the big
macro moves and in most cases, what the stocks do at an individual level doesn’t matter that much.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): SELLING AND TAKING PROFITS. An exception that proves the rule, our
small spec trade on gold in Oregon did very well on Friday on the back of this NR (4):
Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - October 17, 2025) - Provenance Gold Corp. (CSE: PAU)
(OTCQB: PVGDF) ("Provenance" or the "Company") is pleased to announce an investment commitment from a
strategic investment group for $4,500,000. The group has agreed to participate in a non-brokered private
placement (the "Offering") of 18,000,000 units (each, a "Unit") which will be offered at a price of $0.25 per Unit.
Each Unit will consist of one common share and one-half-of-one share purchase warrant exercisable at a price of
$0.30 good for a period of five years. The Offering is expected to close on or about October 24, 2025 and
investors have agreed to a one-year hold period
on all the securities issued in the Offering.
It was a little bit of a stretch to read PAU
president Rob Clark saying that the offering was
“completed at market price” with a half warrant
at 30c in each unit, but forgivable under the
circumstances and when the stock was primed
higher on the news after first reacting lower
(chart right), it felt as though the incoming
strategic players were trying to make a point to
the wider world.
As noted in the last couple of weeks, I’ve been
humming a hahing about whether to sell and if
so, at what price. Last weekend got me to “I may do
so at 30c” and after due consideration, I think the
28.5c of this weekend is enough under the
circumstances. Not only are we in a choppy market
that’s going to scare people away from the riskiest
end of the gold world (i.e. tinycap explorecos), but the
trading Friday to push PAU to its high close looked
artificial and unless gold rallies bigtime next week, I
don’t think it will hold. So instead of complicating my
life over what is, essentially, a small fliptrade, I’ve
decided to take my near-double and put the cash to
work somewhere else. Quite likely in more AMC.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): We ended our extended look at RPX last week with these words:
13

Last week's price breakout is most welcome and probably overdue, though I'm not complaining too
much because I managed to get two more bites at the apple before it happened, the last one just
days ago. However, there's plenty more upside potential in this stock at this time. We have in mind
that RPX treasury isn't a bottomless pit and the company will have to raise more working capital by
mid-next year, but that's not likely to stop equity appreciation as Wawa's open pit plan moves
through the gears and shows its economic value. A near-term revaluation to 20c looks set to
happen, but there's no reason why RPX cannot move higher and 25c before 2026 wouldn't
surprise me in the least. Or if you want the broadest of brush-strokes, assume Wawa gets to 2m oz
gold contained and value those ounces as they re-rate to U$50/oz, you get a stock that more than
doubles from here. In other words, a very easy stock to hold, I'm happy to have increased my
position in the last few weeks and once the wider world realizes the “serious junior” status of RPX
and its new management team, there’s plenty of logical upside left in the share price.
We didn’t have to wait long for that 20c price, and while it couldn’t hold into the Friday sell-off RPX did very
well on the week, managed to end half a cent up and is clearly now attracting a new audience.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to): And now you know why it’s wiser to value a long-term, high conviction precious metals
developer trade using U$3,300/oz gold, rather than spot price. The dump in gold happened, but RIO.to took
the market headwinds well and traded nicely above the C$2.00 for all but a couple of moments during that
tumultuous Friday for gold stocks.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Down 7.1% on the week
and one of the list’s biggest droppers (which isn’t bad,
considering what we witnessed on Friday), MARI didn’t
suddenly drop off a cliff with the selling on Friday, instead
it was a slow and steady loser all week as the chart (right)
shows.
Not so impressive from MARI this week, but it’s not a big
trading stock and we’re only going to see real interest on
the open market when the next Pampa Medina assay
results come in. A soft week, they happen.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Another that did well, but it’s not easy to read too much into a flatlining price on low
volume, aside an apparent lack of sellers. LMS needs to deliver news from somewhere, it’s going to be a
while before the AngloGold Ashanti Organullo drill results start flowing.
The Copper Basket
After forty-two weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 88.11% to level stakes:
14

Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 1485.11 9.05 448.5%
2 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 534.20 17.80 157.2%
3 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 279.21 711.99 2.55 78.3%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 569.21 3.35 76.3%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 174.6 544.75 3.12 112.2%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.516 374.04 1.82 145.9%
7 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 324.11 2.60 26.8%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 289.289 190.93 0.66 20.0%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 175.07 157.56 0.90 34.3%
10 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 136.924 138.29 1.01 60.3%
11 Andina Copper ANDC.cse 0.16 211.085 101.32 0.48 200.0%
12 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 173.377 95.36 0.55 -20.3%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 306.308 36.76 0.12 9.1%
14 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 117.73 34.73 0.295 -6.3%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.622 16.92 0.475 -20.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg 88.11%
We had last week’s amazing gains, we also have the
brick wall hit the metals market hit on Friday, but even The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
100%
those factors weren’t enough to snap the Copper Basket 90%
winning streak that’s now at eleven weeks and counting. 80%
70%
The gain was small, but it’s srtill another weekly win 60%
50%
and comes on the back of seven winners (SOLG.l, 40%
30%
TMQ.to, FDY.to, AE.v, ECU.v, CGNT.v, ANDC.cse) versus
20%
eight losers (ATX.v, ALDE.v, REG.v, ASCU.to, BIG.v, 10%
0%
HCH.v, XXIX.v, KBX.cse). The only double figure -10%
-20%
percentage mover was SolGold (SOLG.l up 17.0% and
helped by the fact that London closed before the full
extent of the Friday damage was done) and with the
changes either medium sized or small in either direction,
it was enough to tip the balance.
In copper market news, the most important macro headlines were once again made by Codelco, which has
reportedly (5) hiked its cathode premium for delivery to Europe from U$235/tonne this year, already a
record, to U$325/tonne for 2026. Although unofficial and unconfirmed by Codelco, it’s almost certainly true
and is only a little higher than European based smelter Aurubis is reportedly charging for copper cathode next
year. It’s an important data point, because it goes long way to confirming the tight market expected for
copper in 2026 and justifies to some extent the recent price run to over U$5.00/lb
As for the latest on the 2025 supply market, here’s our regular weekly segment on copper inventory
movements, data from Cochilco:
 Another week in which the aggregate inventory of copper stocks in the three official systems
increased, though this week’s total add of 3,026 metric tonnes (mt) to close the week at
560,128mt wasn’t nearly as big as the last couple of weeks.
 For my money, the only data point of note is that Shanghai SHFE copper inventories still aren’t
showing signs of demand stress. Instead, they rose for the second week since its big Golden Week
holiday period to close at 110,240mt, up 550mt on the week. Not a big move, but the simple fact
that end users aren’t at market and scrambling to secure inventory yet is the real message. The
calendar Q4 is when China’s factories of all types do their main stocking for the year ahead, copper
and everything else. It’s still not peak buying period, but the lack of interest in moving quickly and
getting their metal bought is the message.
 A small draw down in LME copper inventory, closing at 137,225mt and down 2,175mt on the week.
No biggie.
15
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs

 Once again it was left to the Comex to provide the biggest move, with 4,651mt of copper added to
its stocks and a Friday close of 312,663mt, another new all-time record. We’ve been over this
several times in recent weeks; the North American market is awash with copper, it looks as though
it’s staying that way and the continued rise in Comex inventory is the clear indicator of the surfeit
in the region.
Our dedicated SHFE chart again demonstrates the lack of urgency around copper in Asia. If there were truly a
big supply deficit, that thick black line would be trending down to the 2021 and 2023 all-but-stock-out levels
and the simple fact is, they’re not. Nobody who uses copper in China is panicking about getting their metal,
which implies they are waiting for lower prices.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
We’ll run notes on component stocks next week.
The Producer Basket
After 42 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 123.53% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1108 100.57 90.77 143.9%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 502.579 87.70 174.49 123.1%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1705.994 56.86 33.33 115.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 39.13 203.69 73.2%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1320 7.33 5.55 127.5%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 5.77 28.18 89.5%
7 OceanaGold OGC.to 11.94 231.127 5.73 33.96 184.4%
8 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 5.50 6.96 180.6%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 3.60 12.12 117.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 2.43 16.24 80.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 123.53%
A measure of the bullishness of the first four days of last week is the way these larger precious metals
producers could take an enormous whacking on Friday when gold dumped and still return week-over-week
gains. Monday thru Wednesday was bullish again, Thursday moved into manic buying gear and the smell of a
parabolic move was in the air, then came the reversal and sharp drop as gold tumbled nearly U$200/oz and
closed down perhaps U$160/oz but even that massive drop wasn’t enough to pull the sector into the red. As
for our ten component stocks, nine returned gains and only Franco-Nevada (FNV) was down on the week
(and then by only 0.5%). The others were up and some did really well, so let’s pick out B2Gold (BTG up
9.3%) and Newmont (NEM up 6.6%) and talk a little more about them below. As for our semi-serious race
against GDX, we fell even further behind and I feel as though the 8.3% gap is too much to claw back now.
I’m resigned to a shameful defeat.

The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
140% comparative to GDX control
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): Four weeks ago in IKN853 we ran our “Four good reasons to buy BTG today”
note, which marked a change of tune in our view of the stock. We pointed to a convergence of factors,
including the visual one of a CEO that looks as though he had enough, to mark BTG as a clear M&A target.
Since then, the stock has done this:
Just like all the others, BTG gave back some of its gains on Friday but it’s still done well as a standalone and
compared to the market median, up 28% while GDX has improved by half that (in rough terms). So yes, we
got that one right.
Newmont (NEM): Reasons to be cheerful, NEM edition. It’s the world’s #1 traded gold stock and one of the
few tickers that can handle the bandwidth required of it by the big Wall St firms, so it pays to pay attention to
NEM on days such as Friday when selling becomes a full-scale dump and panic washes over our sector. This
ten-day chart of NEM has some red ink added by your author and attempts to show why we shouldn’t be that
worried about what went on last Friday. Yes it was a sharp sell-off but as the “bit of mania” box shows the
stock only gave back what it had been given by the most exuberant trading that very week. NEM couldn’t
hold at 98, but it did find buyers at 90 and above and added 6.6% on the week, without that pop’n’drop the
world would be purring about such a week-over-week performance.
17
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
8%
ikn 6%
gdx control
4%
2%
up 2.4%
0%
source: IKN calcs -2%
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

The pattern is similar to that seen in the GLD chart featured in today’s intro and while that might make you
pull a face at your screen and go “well duh Mark”, there’s nothing wrong in pointing out another example of
normal market under the rarefied circumstances of last Friday. We didn’t want a waterfall drop, but when it
happened we did want gold and the biggest gold stocks to perform roughly in-line because normal is good.
Long story short, there’s nothing in that chart above that says the bull run is over. And that’s good, because
this coming week we have what is set up to be a key moment in the gold producer sector, the NEM 3q25
financials, due to drop on Thursday post-close, with the ConfCall the same evening (webcast link to that here
(6) other ways to join in here (7). One eye will be on the top line revenues number in the NEM call, because
it’s going to set a standard for other companies to follow and bring begin generalist eyeballs to a fact we
already know; the big precious metals mining companies are making serious money with gold where it was in
Q3. and even more where it is now. The other eye will be on costs, as it’s been the NEM weak spot in too
many earnings reports. If they can come in at a reasonable or even forecast beating AISC, this share price
will be off to the races.
The TinyCaps List
After 42 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 49.01% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 11.52 0.085 -50.0%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 26.23 0.175 20.7%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 6.43 0.065 -50.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 55.53 0.315 117.2%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 85.7 65.99 0.77 97.4%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 30.48 0.25 212.5%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 374.759 106.81 0.285 119.2%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 15.60 0.145 70.6%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 13.15 0.19 -65.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 24.01 0.165 17.9%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 49.01%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average gave back just 0.76% on the week, 60% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
which isn’t bad considering the fun we had on Friday and 50%
the way the junior space was put to the sword. Just three 40%
of our ten component stocks were winners on the week 30%
(EDG.v, LMS.v, VAU.v) and of those, the best move by 20%
distance was in Endurance Gold (EDG.v up 21.1%). Two 10%
stocks were unchanged (BRO.v, ELY.v), whi9ch means five 0%
losers (CN.v, KD!K.v, MOG.v, RDU.v, STS.v) and of those, -10%
the biggest drops were in South Star (STS.v down 19.2%)
and Mogotes Metals (MOG.v down 10.9%).
18
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

With ten weeks left in the year, it’s fair to say the 2025 TinyCaps List has done a better job of representing
this difficult to quantify sub-sector. The 2023 and 2024 lists weren’t a great success and limped through the
second halves of their years with too many broken stories on board, but this time around we’ve kept a
reasonable representation going. In my personal opinion there are two “broken stocks” (BRO.v and STS.v)
and one big loser (ELY.v) that still has a chance in life if things go better next year, then three other
reasonable moderate performers (CN.v, RDU.v, VAU.v), which leaves the four out-performers (EDG.v, KDK.v,
LMS.v, MOG.v) and that’s a decent sample, getting 4 springers out of ten in a year such as this. What’s more,
the four big winners cover the project generator (LMS), copper (KDK, MOG) and gold (EDG) worlds, so
another way the cross section works.
After 2023 and 2024 I was thinking about retiring The TinyCaps List from The IKN Weekly, but this year has
pepped my enthusiasm back for what is the least read section of the publication and it will continue next
year. Not only has it kept its relevance, but I’ve benefited personally from keeping a close look on Latin
Metals (LMS.v) before buying a few (and making some money…so far) and also keeping Electrum (ELY.v) in
the crosshairs (the jury is still out on that stock). So expect me to prompt you guys out there for stock ideas
as from this time next month, as per usual.
Endurance Gold (EDG.v): The right profile of story at the right time, EDG has had a great month and
ridden the gold run well, with last week seeing the best of the share price move. We should have covered its
NR dated October 6th last week and didn’t get there, so better late than never and (8)…
Endurance Reports Four Additional Holes With Highlight Intersections Of 5.13 gpt Gold
Over 19.8 Metres And 5.40 gpt Gold Over 4.8 Metres
...in which EDG reported five new holes from the 2025 program at its flagship Reliance project, North of
Vancouver BC CA. Without doubt, the highlight hit was the headline-maker above, hole DDH25-117 and the
19.8m of 5.13g/t gold, which included 9.2m of 7.7g/t Au
rock. Two other holes were busts, but holes DDH25-120
and DDH25-121 also hit decent grade material further
downhole, but not the same excellent widths at 117. All
that was enough to break its share price above the
stubborn ceiling at 26/27c and since then it hasn’t
looked back (and even back-tested the breakout) so
when Friday came, EDG gave back a couple of pennies
but still booked a great win over the week and the
month. Another stock that’s seen its market cap balloon
this year, unless there’s a wholesale market collapse
(perish the thought) I can’t see how we can include EDG
in next year’s TinyCaps List, supposed U$20m market
cap ceiling and all that.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Bolivia elections: And the winner is…
Rodrigo Paz Pereira
…and to save me a few keystrokes, here’s how Reuters reported the victory (9):
LA PAZ, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Centrist Rodrigo Paz won Bolivia's presidential runoff on Sunday,
defeating conservative rival Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, as the country's worst economic crisis in a
generation helped propel the end of nearly two decades of leftist rule.
Paz, a senator from the Christian Democratic Party, won 54.5% of the vote, beating Quiroga's 45.5%,
according to early results from Bolivia's electoral tribunal. But Paz's party does not hold a majority in
the country's legislature, which will force him to forge alliances to govern effectively.
19

The new president takes office on November 8.
"We must open Bolivia to the world," said Paz during his victory speech from La Paz, after Quiroga
conceded defeat.
The result didn’t come as a surprise to this desk. A couple of weeks ago in IKN854 when reporting on the
apparent ten point lead in the polls held by his rival, the classic right wing Tuto Quiroga, we opined that the
raw numbers don’t convey the uncertainty…andf that “this desk considers the run-off as too close to call.”
Sure enough, Rodrigo Paz did indeed come up on the rails in the same style as in round one, when he was
unfancied until very late in proceedings but appealed as a moderate voice who had come from the Evo
Morales MAS ranks, knew the issues faced by Bolivia’s rank and file but also wanted to being orthodox
financial reform to the country. His “Open Bolivia to the world” line, astutely picked up by the Reuters
reporter, is at the heart of this.
The result was always going to be FDI friendly compared to that of a the MAS left wing party that’s been in
power under Evo Morales and most recently Luis Arce for nearly two decades. It’s also fair to say that FDI
would have preferred the known quantity and clear right wing policies of Tuto over the lesser known quantity
who hails from the left but has moved to his current centre-right position on the political spectrum over the
years (e.g. Evo Morales calls them both right wing fascists). However, I think Paz is a better option of FDI as
well, he’s bound to be less confrontational with the general public, particularly the Aymara and Quechua
indigenous peoples who make up a large percentage of the population and I’d opine that there’s less chance
of serious social upheaval under Paz. Consider me cautiously optimistic about the future for Bolivia, but I still
consider the jurisdiction a risky one for mining capitals and I’m not in a mad rush to buy in.
Peru protests its corrupted government
You may or may not have heard about the protest marches in Peru last week, but the general public and
particularly the student age group rose up in a reasonably spontaneous manner and protested the
continuation of the samo samo political scene under new interim President Jeri. The main march in Lima
attracted far more than organizers expected, was largely peaceful but then late in the proceedings police
used tear gas to stop the column from walking by the Congress building and in the resulting scuffles, one
marcher was shot and killed by a live round, almost certainly from the gun of one of the police officers
present. That incident alone has turned the marches into an event that now threatens the stability of the Jeri
interim presidency and that of his newly formed cabinet (that is, indeed, made up of exactly the same stuffed
suits that got the country to where it is in the first place). The potential for real institutional crisis in Peru has
grown and from last weeks “Won’t Affect Mining”, we change our advisory to “Won’t directly affect mining
but may affect the outside world’s view of the country and cause deterioration in its political risk profile.” On
the plus side to that, Peru is one of the least indebted countries in Latin America and runs a handy trade
surplus (thanks to copper and gold), so any crisis of politics shouldn’t hit the financial side of the country too
badly or cause long-term damage.
We also got a prime example of just why the country hates its Congress and government as much as it does
and what’s more it’s a hot ticket mining issue. Just two days after being sworn in, the Jeri government
announced the permit to start exploitation activities at the Southern Copper (SCCO) Tia Maria project in the
South coastal Arequipa region (Islay district). Long-term observers of the LatAm mining scene will know all
about the polemic Tia Maria project, with social opposition dating back to 2009 and several serious clashes
along the way that have left protesting locals dead and injured at the hands of the forces of law and order.
The project has the same opposition now as it’s had over the last 15 years, but that didn’t stop the Dina
Boluarte government from awarding it an EIA in 2024 and now the newly installed Jeri interim government
has told SCCO it can start earth moving works and begin to build its mine. The news of the permit award was
splashed across the Peruvian press and on all major channels, but you need to look hard and deep (e.g. this
report (10)) to find one with these salient details:
 Since early this year a court order has stopped the mine from going ahead, with locals filing against the
government for awarding the EIA illegally. They state (and they’re almost certainly correct) that there
hasn’t been the required prior consultancy hearings and approval from local communities that would
allow the environmental permit (EIA) to be awarded.
 Therefore, the permit last week authorizing the start of works at Tia Maria is also equally illegal. This
doesn’t seem to bother Señor Jerí, perhaps because he knows he’s only going to be around in power
until June 2026 latest. Equally, it doesn’t seem to bother the current Congress or the newly installed
Minister of Mining. Locals are clear that they haven’t given approval or permission for the project and
20

protests from the zone on receipt of the news were widespread. Peru’s lapdog mainstream media kept
radio silent on those, as well.
The amount of money involved with the Tia Maria project (capex U$1.7Bn) means there’s more than enough
to go around to grease the wheels of power and even though there have been a case or two of a mining
operation being closed down post-facto (looking at you, Tahoe Resources), they’re vanishingly rare and both
SCCO and the interim government know that it’s easier to ask for forgiveness than permission (aka, “now it’s
built it would be stupid not to use it, right boys?”). The sleight of hand involved with this permit and the
timing stinks to high heaven and a better example of the institutional corruption so rife in Peru, the exact
form of government that caused last week’s massed protest, is difficult to imagine.
An Argentina slang lesson
Even though it’s my favourite Spanish swear word, it’s impossible to translate the word “pelotudo” accurately.
Though it occasionally shows up in other places, it’s very much part of the rich and deep colloquial and street
vocabulary of Argentina, a country that prides itself on how much it uses slang and dirty language on a
regular basis (it’s a weird place). The base of “pelotudo” comes from “pelota”, meaning “ball” and therefore
it’s related to testicles, but it means “idiot” (a diplomatic gist translation). However, at the same time it’s
more lyrical and pleasant than the classic Argentine swear word “boludo”, which means essentially the same
thing but is more common and therefore more vulgar, unless of course you’re talking about or with a friend
of yours, at which moment it becomes a term of endearment…it’s complicated.
Anyway, “pelotudo” turned up last week in an interesting place, the speech given by Argentina’s Minister of
Deregulation and State Transformation, (Ministro de Desregulación y Transformación del Estado) Federico
Sturzenegger, at the 61st IDEA conference. IDEA is the cool acronym for the Institute for the Business
Development of Argentina (Instituto para el Desarrollo Empresarial de la Argentina) (8) and is arguably the
most established and widely known business chamber of commerce in the country. Its annual conference is
one of the business sector’s dates of the year and this one went on for three days in the coastal resort city of
Mar del Plata, South of Buenos Aires.
As for Señor Sturzenegger, he’s been a fixture on the Argentine financial scene for as long as I’ve been
covering the country (nearly 28 years). An economist, university professor and well known media figure, as
well as the current “Minister of Modernization” (as it’s known), he was head of the Argentina Central Bank
(BCRA) during the Macri government, a member of Congress for the Macri PRO party and has held top level
government financial positions in a good handful of State entities. He’s also as Argentina in thought and deed
as they come and not afraid of plain talk.
With the scene set, we tune in to Federico Sturzenegger’s keynote speech at the IDEA conference (11) and
while he covered plenty of business bases, he also took those present to task for not taking advantage of the
laws and new business background offered by the Milei government:
“I’ve been coming to IDEA to talk about labour issues for ten years. This government has given you
(the business executives) the freedom to redesign labour contracts and you haven’t done anything.
Well guys, maybe the problems (faced by Argentina) aren’t as bad as we imagined, because
otherwise I don’t know what’s going on now. Or maybe you’re waiting for something else (from the
Milei government.”
But his the best turn was when he got to mining. We translate all words except for one (12) (13):
“Chile exports $50 billion in mining products, while Argentina exports only $4 billion….When God
created the Andes, he said, “Here’s the border (between the two countries), I'll put all the copper and
gold on one side and nothing on the other.’ That would be hypothesis one. Hypothesis two, we're
pelotudos. Hypothesis two is the one that works. So we're going to stop being pelotudos and start
mining the resources.”
He’s right, of course. While Argentina’s previous governments under the Kirchners, Macri and Alberto
Fernández have always been mining friendly, they also bottlenecked the sector with no end of paperwork and
red tape, as well as taxes on exports. Not only has the Milei government cut through the red tape, but the
RIGI initiative has brought pledges for multi-billion dollar projects (for more details, see the list in IKN851
dated September 7th and the note “Argentina: The 19 RIGI projects”, in which we see that over U$16Bn or
the U$20.5Bn in projects accepted into RIGI are copper mines).
21

As well as the direct mining growth, he also alluded to the indirect GDP boost from mining:
“In a year, we're going to see private investment in transportation, the entire rail network will
renovated and of course, the train that runs between Buenos Aires and Neuquén (important for the
hydrocarbons business).”
That’s what is in-play next weekend, so here’s the preview note on an election that might not be for the top
job, but with the near-certain result expectations in Chile and Bolivia’s right vs centre-right choice this
weekend, has become the most important vote in South America this year for the mining industry.
Argentina: Trump’s government tries to tip the election toward Milei
Called “unconventional” by Larry Summers (14) and making no end of headlines last week, the Trump
government last week announced it was theoretically bumping up its plans to run currency swaps with
Argentina, essentially a pledge to buy U$40Bn worth of Argentina Pesos (ARS) and pad the Argentina Central
Bank (BCRA) with much-needed international currency reserves. As they currently stand at around U$42.2Bn,
it would imply a near-doubling of reserves if The USA were to run the transaction in on fell swoop. That’s
unlikely, but even a small fraction up front and a commitment to keep the spigot open would be enough to
strengthen a Peso in need of support.
Why unconventional? For one, as Summers points out on that link The USA has used its economic might to
help out friendly governments and nations, but it’s the first time it has waded in to prop up a currency that’s
under a peg against the USD. It’s also obviously political and designed to help Milei win the votes next
weekend in the mind-term elections, so be in no doubt that if things go the way of the government Trump
will claim “his” success (and if Milei fares poorly the plan gets dropped like a hot brick and Argentina gets to
fend for itself again).
Indeed, the ARS/USD forex pair is probably as good a barometer as any for next week’s election. There was
sustained demand for the USD on the streets of Buenos Aires last week, with the rate closing Friday at ARS
1,475 = USD 1 and the Peso weakening to near the upper limit of the Milei-imposed currency band of 1,489
(at which point the BCRA is obliged to move in and sell USD to support the currency). The signal from the
currency pair is one of nervousness and uncertainty on how the election will pan out. It probably goes
without saying at this point, but a strong showing for the Milei alliance would set off a financial party in
Argentina as from Monday October 27th, while a poor showing would see all its indicators dump. More than at
any other moment, it’s the acid test of the Milei government and whether Argentina is willing to stomach the
reforms its President wants to continue implementing. Up to a couple of months ago Milei was favoured to
succeed in these mid-terms, but the continued financial drudgery for the general population combined with
the recent corruption scandal in his government that involves his own sister and chief confidante Karina have
put Milei on the back foot. The Buenos Aires province election result was a clear defeat and now there’s
everything to play for and if there’s one lesson from the voter intention polls, it’s that nobody really knows
which way this vote will go.
Market Watching
Deferred
Conclusion
IKN856 is done, we end with bullet points:
 As it turns, out, this edition has two things to state. Firstly, Arizona Metals (AMC.to) is still priced
attractively for a speculative flip trade from now to the end of this year. Although beaten down hard
in the first three quarters of 2025, its main Kay project is far from dead and when the PEA arrives,
expect it to raise a few eyebrows with its robust economics. I’m not 100% decides, but will probably
buy more and build this into the PEA.
22

 The other thing IKN856 states clearly: “The music hasn’t stopped, so keep dancing”. Friday’s gold
price fun was the first real test of the bull camp’s mettle, expect more but until such time as the price
truly fails the task is to hold and hold again.
 I need to make changes in my working life. Aside the other disturbances, I’m beginning to see the
root cause for my tardy approach to the weekend that have seen several editions arrive a day late
this year: I’m falling madly in love with my kids and want to spend more and more time with them on
Saturdays and Sundays. It’s time for me to make a few decisions and re-order my working week.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if
required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.arizonametalscorp.com/_resources/news/nr-20250626.pdf
(2) https://www.arizonametalscorp.com/_resources/news/nr-20250630.pdf
(3) https://www.arizonametalscorp.com/_resources/news/nr-20250915.pdf
(4) https://www.provenancegold.com/20251017-provenance-gold-announces-fully-subscribed-c4.5-million-financing-with-a-strategic-
investment-group
(5) https://www.mining.com/web/codelco-hikes-2026-european-copper-premium-to-record-345-a-tonne/
(6) https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/699386133
(7) https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2025/Newmont-Announces-Third-Quarter-2025-Earnings-
Conference-Call/default.aspx
(8) https://endurancegold.com/news-releases/endurance-reports-four-additional-holes-with-highlight-intersections-of-5.13-gpt-gold-over-
19.8-metres-and-5.40-gpt-gold-over/
(9) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivia-votes-runoff-election-marking-pro-market-shift-us-embrace-2025-10-19/
(10) https://muqui.org/gobierno-de-jeri-y-minem-imponen-proyecto-minero-tia-maria-la-voz-del-valle-de-tambo-arequipa-vuelve-a-ser-
ignorada/
(11) https://www.idea.org.ar/
(12) https://www.tiempodesanjuan.com/politica/federico-sturzenegger-la-mineria-vamos-empezar-explotar-los-recursos-mineros-n414460
(13) https://mase.lmneuquen.com/mineria/los-argentinos-somos-pelotudos-la-critica-sturzenegger-no-aprovechar-la-mineria-n1213663
(14) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFl1vi3YwZU
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
23

American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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