6 The IKN Weekly, issue 855 — Oct 14, 2025
The IKN Weekly
Week 855, October 12th 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Giving thanks in Canada, When the band stops playing.
Fundamental Analysis: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to): Why our Top Pick is going even higher.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Provenance Gold
(PAU.cse), Aurion Resources (AU.v), Gold Royalty Corp (GROY), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v),
Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Trilogy (TMQ.to) (TMQ), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), Hercules (BIG.v), American
Eagle (AE.v), Element 29 (ECU.v), Kobrea (KBX.cse).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to), Barrick (B) (ABX.to), Newmont (NEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Condor Resources (CN.v), South Star (STS.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Protests having limited effect, Peru has a new President, Argentina: Lots going
on, Chile: The Presidential election race developing as expected.
Market Watching: Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) files its annuals, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 3q25
production numbers.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
Today’s main fundies section covers Top Pick Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) and the timing is good, what with the
stock hitting a new al-time high last week. Despite that, our contention is that there’s still a long way
to go for this stock price and if you’re not overweight and holding (e.g. me), it’s still a great buy even
with a 2-handle.
A good week for copper prices and a simply amazing week for junior copper stocks, with the Trilogy
Metals (TMQ) (TMQ.to) driving that stock to giddy heights and bringing the sub-sector into the
crosshairs of a wider audience. However, this desk believes both the metal and the junior copper
stocks have got ahead of themselves somewhat and this week’s Copper Basket section ends with these
words: “Bottom line: Copper is probably overbought in the near-term. Profit–taking is on my mind and
with the massive moves we saw in juniors last week, there are decent profits out there to book.”
This desk’s firm opinion is that the music isn’t about to stop and we expect to keep dancing for the
indefinite future. However, forewarned is to be forearmed so in today’s intro section, we tackle a
question fielded from a couple of readers in recent days. “How do we know when the music has
stopped?”
At first sight, the Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 3q25 production NR might not have impressed, but a
closer look shows how good this company is and the outstanding value it offers at the current price
deck. That’s the main ‘Market Watching’ note today, down at the bottom of the edition we also look at
the recently re-re-re-added position Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), which filed its annuals last week
(and also saw a long-overdue price breakout).
Regional Politics keeps its finger on the pulse the key mi-term election in Argentina and the
Presidential race in Chile, as both of those matter to the mining world. We also check on the fun and
games last week in Peru to explain in as few words as possible why the ouster of Dina Boluarte will
have precious little effect on the country’s mining industry. In 2025, at least.
Other things as well. There are always other things.
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Giving thanks in Canada
A reminder that tomorrow, Monday October 13th, is Thanksgiving Day in Canada and as such, its stock
markets are closed for the public holiday. We note in passing that The USA celebrates Columbus Day
tomorrow Monday, but its stock markets are open for business as usual (even though US banks are closed for
the occasion.
In USA macro data news, the government shut down originally meant we’d get no data out of BLS until the
two sides of Congress stop their squabbling. However, the BLS has called employees back from furlough to
complete the work on the Consumer Price Index and here’s why (1):
The department had originally paused work on the CPI report – which tracks a broad basket of goods and services
for price changes over time — because of its shutdown plan, the official said. But the Social Security
Administration needs third-quarter CPI data for calculating and publishing annual cost-of-living adjustments before
Nov. 1.
Thank you, CNBC. The CPI (and PPI) report was supposed to show up this coming week, then it wasn’t going
to happen, now BLS says it will show at/around October 24th, that’s two weeks from now. For what it’s
worth, current consensus forecast is +0.3% for both headline and core CPI, compared to +0.4% in the last
report and for an example of the thinking behind those guesstimates, Citigroup analysts say that the softer
US housing market will be enough to counter the inflationary effects of Trumps tariffs. Me? No idea, I’m just
a junior mining guy...
When the band stops playing
Regarding the house policy “Keep Dancing Until The Music Stops”, a question has come up with in
conversation with a couple of readers. An obvious question, in fact:
How do we know when the music has stopped?
The answer; when you can’t hear any music. And now the dumb joke is out the way, the real answer is that
we don’t know and that’s the whole point. As mentioned on several occasions, key part of the strategy is to
know, without pretension that you’re not going to sell at the top (or if you do it’s pure luck) and be clear, I
cannot stress the importance of this enough. There’s no pretense about this strategy, I know I’m going to
take a bath at some point and while you might dream about picking the exact time to pay heed to the rise of
bearish signals and get out while feeling the door slam behind you, that’s not the way I approach this hot
market. Mine is the simpler, “one less thing to worry about” approach that allows the bull market to run and
accepts the haircut at the end.
Why so? To repeat my practical example of last week in real terms, selling Marimaca Copper (MARI.to) on its
recent retreat from C$11 to just over C$9 would have been logical, reasonable and bagged me a 200%
winner. It’s now back over C$12 and threatening even better prices.
However, we should at least try to discern the difference between a correction as part of a long-term bull run
and the moment when the music truly stops, as it can make the difference between selling at a 15% discount
from the top and 30% or more. Again, we’re not trying to soothsay the market by getting the call and the
timing absolutely right, but there are signals worth considering and particularly when they start piling up
together at the same time. One is pure chart work and
yes, this is cynical me recommending you consider the
voodoo world of technical analysis. Keep me away from
micromanaged stock TA and being fooled by randomness,
but macro charts do offer a visual window of sentiment
and certain patterns repeat enough to make TA sense, as
well as common sense. Here right, for example, is how
tops will often break down, with (1) a fast move up that
culminates into a (2) sharp correction, then (3) a market
that tries hard to re-gain the lost ground but (4) fails to
reach the old high and sees a second quick sell-off.
If/When that second round of selling produces a lower
low, watch out below.
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With that in mind, we take a look at the last month in gold and…oh, what’s this?
At first sight, that looks uncannily like the first three points or the four outlined above. So does that make me
worry? No, it doesn’t because for one thing, the rebound needs to fail a second time before we take it
seriously (reiterating that “Keep Dancing…” is NOT trying to anticipate a top and sell before it happens). But
far more importantly, this below:
Anyone trading gold off a one-month chart needs their head examining (in my view). Gold is a long-term
vehicle and needs proper perspective, so the above two year chart shows a far healthier situation. Agreed the
price move has accelerated in 2025, but we’ve seen negative days along the way and while steeper, it’s not
exponential. The consideration of the one-month chart versus this two-year chart also highlights how a bull
run can scare people into making rash decisions, what poker players call “seeing monsters under the bed”
when they’re trying to decide if their opponent has a hand that beats them or not. Selling gold in October
2025 may sound like a good idea, but according to the very same chart that argument would have made
sense in June or July this year (and those with a memory may recall that famous Citibank call in early
summer, saying that old at U$3,500/oz was unsustainable and a return to $3k was likely).
Moving away from charts, another gauge of whether the music has stopped is market reaction to news. A
difficult and nuanced subject, but we can simplify to make a valid point so let us consider these four
scenarios and you’ll get my basic idea quickly enough:
Good news gets a positive market reaction: Green flag
Bad news gets a negative market reaction: Green flag
Bad news gets a positive market reaction: Yellow flag
Good news gets a negative market reaction: Red flag
If negative news causes a negative effect, the market is normal. Also true for good news and positive
reactions, but if something happens that’s ostensibly negative and the market reacts positively, it’s one signal
pointing us toward a frothy market. And let’s face it, we’ve seen plenty of those happen in mining stocks
recent, from the macro clarion call to “Buy The Dip” that’s worked so well people now do it without thinking
through the rationale. Or for a company-specific example, the same eyebrow gets raised when a junior
announces a financing and the open market share price goes up, rather than down. Those yellow flag
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moments aren’t ostensible reasons to sell, but we should pay attention because if they come before a more
important signal, evidence begins to stack up. For example, yellow flags turn to red when some event that
would normally move stocks higher has the opposite effect. We haven’t seen that happen in our current
market, not yet at least, which is why I’m relaxed about holding through and keeping the dance alive.
The bottom line to this intro and “Keep Dancing…” follow-up is three simple statements:
“Keep Dancing Til The Music Stops” means you climb the wall of worry. There are always reasons to
get spooked, always logical excuses to step away from a maturing bull market, but the strategy keeps
the market participant in for 100% of the bull run. That’s why it works.
“Keep Dancing Til The Music Stops” also means we sell late. If you don’t like that thought, don’t use
this strategy.
It’s possible to mitigate the eventual damage by recognizing when the music has stopped earlier, rather
than later. That’s not an exact science, but if enough signals stack up at the same time and tell us that
this time isn’t a simple correction they will be worth considering.
To wrap this up, be clear that talking about a top doesn’t mean I’m predicting one and for the record, I don’t
expect to need the information in today’s intro section anytime soon. It’ll happen eventually but until it does,
we keep dancing.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to): Why our Top Pick is going even higher
We’ve come a long way with our Top Pick stock, Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) over the years, as this five year chart
sketches out in basic terms. Back in 2021 we liked the stock enough to put it at the top of our shopping list
when gold traded at U$1,800/oz or so, then in 2022 came the denial of its EIA and the bad times, then the
resolution of the mess in late 2023 when the EIA was reinstated, the recovery through last year and most
recently, the fortuitous timing of a fully funded and permitted gold project that’s coming on line as the price
of gold makes international headlines.
It’s quite the reversal of fortune. The stock is up a cool 2,000% or so from its absolute bottom price (October
2022) and as we note in today’s Stocks to Follow section below, it’s up 235% in 2025 YTD alone. We’ve
followed the story closely in other sections of this publication (of course, it’s Top Pick after all) and made sure
readers understood that it’s going higher along with gold, but it’s been a while since we took a good look at
the financials behind the Fenix project and what the impressive rise in gold is set to do to its share price.
That’s our job today, we’re running the numbers on the soon-to-be completed Fenix mine and updating our
target price on the stock.
However, before we get that far, there’s background to cover and a few new angles to consider. We begin
with the updated corporate structure:
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Shares out: 429.874m
Options: 18.858m
Warrants: Zero
RSU/DSUs: 1.93m
Fully diluted: 450.662m
Current share price: C$2.11
Market Cap: C$907.03m
Approx cash per S/O: 11c
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated, forex CAD$1 = USD 0.73
At a market cap of C$907m, we’re a long way from the C$26m market cap as at end 3q22 but the plan today
is to be future-facing, so we first note the low number of derivatives (which should allow RIO.to to award
more incentive options at some point) and no warrants outstanding. The other piece of good news is that we
don’t expect that share count to expand any further, as the financing package in place covers RIO.to to
beyond the point it’s expected to go free cash flow positive at Fenix, not simply to first pour or to commercial
production.
Semi-related is the recent news that RIO.to has invested in Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v), here’s an excerpt
from the NR (2):
Rio2 has beneficial ownership, control and direction over an aggregate of 39,855,000 Shares,
representing approximately 15% of the issued and outstanding Shares on a non-diluted basis. Rio2
acquired the Shares through the facilities of the TSX Venture Exchange at a price of $0.115 per
Share for an aggregate price of $4,583,325.
That block is most of the 47.945m shares sold by Agnico Eagle (AEM) on that day, the remnant going to A.N.
Other place. We understand that the AEM block had been up for sale for a while, which makes sense because
these days, it was a rounding error on the AEM books and RYR hadn’t provided the type of lead it had
originally been looking for when getting into the company (AEM seems to have plumped for Collective (CNL.)
for its Colombia strategic exposure). As for the Rio2 side of the strategy, I asked company Chair Alex Black
for some extra flavour and he said a couple of interesting things. Firstly, the purchase send an indirect
though clear message that RIO.to is in good shape money-wise. The Fenix build-out is on schedule and
budget, capex is covered, the liquidity it will need between first pour and positive free cash flow is there and
on top of that, it has some discretionary funds available as this
type of share deal wouldn’t have got past the CFO otherwise.
Secondly, it’s exactly as they noted in the company literature on
announcing the deal, an opportunistic purchase of a share block
the company believes will appreciate in price. After-the-fact and
taking into account what RYR shares have done since the deal
was announced (chart right), the way RIO already has a near-
double on its hands lends itself to the theory. These days,
adding C$5m to a C$907m market cap isn’t such a big thing, but
assets are assets and more importantly, RIO.to can confidently
state it got a bargain and a strategic position in a company
whose share price was being held back by the long-pending AEM sale intention.
Finally, this is a good way to add project optionality to the RIO story. The company has made no secret of
the fact it wants to add a second project now that Fenix is well underway and something that’s a decent fit
isn’t so easy to find. In RYR, it has a strategic position in a company that goes to the further flung corners of
the mining world, often first-footing in places that would be off limits to larger companies looking to maintain
a solid political risk profile. Sometimes that doesn’t work out for RYR, for example its foray into Nicaragua
looked reasonable for a time but the dictatorial crackdown by Nica’s nefarious President Daniel Ortega put
paid to that idea. It’s kept a toehold in one of the most geologically prospective but socially difficult regions of
Colombia (along its Southern boarder with Ecuador) and the rocks there are undoubtedly good, so if the
political climate changes for the better there may be something Rio” as a partner can do. Or maybe not, but
the 15% holding in RYR gives our Top Pick that potential to be in first if things go well, with very little
damage done if things go badly. Most recently RYR moved on Saudi Arabia, one of the companies invited to
explore the country in a government backed initiative that’s offered more heat than light so far. Again, a 15%
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stake in RYR provides a key to a new jurisdiction with very little corporate risk. Saying all that, it only takes
one look at that share price chart above to see that RYR has got more out of this move than RIO, in the
near-term at least. For RIO is a small sidebar development and not a reason to either like the company more
or to go off the idea of ownership. Ultimately, a small seed that may eventually grow into something over the
longer term, but not the reason to buy or hold today.
With that covered, we move to the other interesting NR from the company recently, dated September 24th
and entitled “Rio2 Desalinated Water Update for Expansion of the Fenix Gold Mine” (3). In it, we learned that
the company is already looking to the future and beyond the Stage 1 production set to begin next year. As
investors in RIO.to, this is a far more interesting development than that of the RYR strategic share purchase,
so we offer a couple of extended quotes from the NR, starting with the top paragraph:
Rio2 Limited…announces today that following comprehensive and exhaustive due diligence and
negotiations, Rio2’s Chilean subsidiary, Fenix Gold Limitada (“Fenix Gold”), has signed two separate
memorandum of understandings (an “MOU”) with two companies that have desalinated water
distribution facilities located in the Copiapo area, to undertake studies for the potential supply of
desalinated water to the Fenix Gold Mine located in the Atacama Region, Chile. The studies will
evaluate the potential expansion of their desalination facilities at operating plants and constructing a
pipeline and associated infrastructure from their distribution facilities in Copiapo.
While RIO has always talked about adding a water pipeline to the Fenix project in order to expand
production, this is the first time we’ve seen an official move from the company and it came with a clear
timeline, as well:
Now that these MOUs have been executed and study work has commenced, timelines for the
proposed expansion of the Fenix Gold Mine are projected to be as follows:
Completion of a pre-feasibility study – Q1, 2026
Mineral reserve and resource update – Q4, 2026
Completion of a feasibility study – H2, 2027
Capital expenditure approvals and commitment for the expansion – Q1, 2029
Completion of desalinated water supply works and completion of project capital works – H2,
2030
Commencement of ramp up to higher rate of production – H2, 2030
Timing is indicative and may vary depending upon various factors associated with permitting and
approvals. The Company will provide regular updates of progress and any revisions to projected
timing.
That’s a reasonable timeline, but then the company adds an extra little Easter Egg to the mix with this short
paragraph:
In expanding the Fenix Gold Mine, the Company will be targeting an expanded rate of production of
80,000 tonnes of ore per day, to produce a targeted amount of at least 300,000 oz of gold per annum
for approximately 10 years.
Again, this isn’t the first time an expansion has been mooted for Fenix, the 80ktpd size is right where
previous ideas lay and for what it’s worth, your author and company Chair Alex Black have chewed over this
expansion idea on many occasions while talking about the company. However, it’s the first time we’ve seen a
clearly stated objective, with a production target and timeline. In other words on September 24th RIO.to
presented its “Big Fenix” plans to the world, the next stage in its project that promised to bumps up mine
production 3x and make RIO.to into a far more valuable company.
And that’s why this note exists, because it’s our contention that the market does not as yet understand what
“Big Fenix” is going to do to this company and its share price.
A valuation for Rio2 Ltd in October 2025
We get to the point of today’s note, an updated valuation and new price target for our Top Pick stock and
while there are other ways to pin an equity value on the company, after due consideration I’m going the
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) route this time. As stated on several occasions over the years, I'm not the
biggest fan of DCF, as it comes with no end of moving parts that can be easily reverse-engineered by Excel
Jocks (such as I). Long story short, DCF allows the author to start with a clear idea of what they want their
price target to be, then fiddle with the numbers until they achieve their objective and I’m always leery when I
see the method applied to junior mining companies (especially by sell-side houses with ulterior motives).
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However, I do trust myself to play the game straight and in this case, RIO.to lends itself to a reasonable and
conservatively-pitched DCF study. It's a good fit, because a DCF captures the long-term value of the Phase 1
// Phase 2 plans, it's essentially a single asset company with a single asset and there's less to guess about
upfront capex burdens. Also, it must be said, there won't be an excessive bill for its expansion plans for Stage
2, as most of the capex goes to that water pipeline.
As in any valuation, criteria must be set and in this case there’s a long laundry list to consider:
Phase 1 production as per the 2023 Feasibility Study
(FS).
RIO.to at Fenix: Annual gold production estimate
Phase 2 production that begins to show in the year
2031, then brings overall production to the company's
target of 300,000 oz per year between 2032 and 2041
(its tenth year). By that time, Fenix may have
increased its resource and added mine life but for the
time being we go with what we have.
The annual production assumptions are shown here in
visual form (right).
The Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) stream, which
takes 6% of gold ounces and pays 20% spot until
90,000 oz is delivered, after which the stream reduces
to 4%.
USD 0.73 = CAD$1.00
Those are the straightforward ones, now for line items that need a little extra explanation:
Cost, which we pitch at a significantly higher AISC
than the 2023 Feasibility Study (FS). First and
foremost because we know there has been cost
inflation in the last two years, but secondly because
it makes a lot of sense to build in conservative
parameters into this model. This table (right) shows
our assumptions, with the first years of Phase assuming an AISC typically U$300/oz to U$400/oz
higher than the FS model. We then show the
increased AISC in 2030 and 2031 as the expansion
project is built out, finally we assume a best guess
U$1,400/oz for the Phase 2 years that would surely
benefit from economies of scale.
An effective tax rate of 15% in the mine's first years, which takes into account the tax breaks afforded
to FDI capex projects in Chile, which eventually rises to an effective 21% (for the record, the nominal
corporate tax rate in Chile is 27%).
Deprecation that marks down nearly the entirely of Phase 1 in the first six years of operations, then
moves to a flat rate of U$50m/year for the expanded Phase 2 years. This is a highly conservative route
and another place in which I can build in plenty of leeway.
An initial capex of zero, as the financing is now baked in. Then expansion capex of U$550m, which
assumes a charge of U$400m to build its key water pipeline then U$150m for the expansion projects
on-site. This being a heap-leach open pit with plenty of suitable land on its concession area to build
and expand, it won't need a massive injection of capital and most of the capex at this stage will be
about that water pipeline. On that, it wouldn't be a massive surprise to see RIO.to build it in
conjunction with other mining companies in the zone, but for the time being we assume RIO.to takes
100% of the cost and gets 100% of the water.
A shares outstanding total of 470m: This takes into account the current fully diluted total of 450m,
assumes no new equity raise, but does include the eventual awarding and making whole of another
20m incentive options for management and insiders.
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00226
004901 004601
00159 00009
000051
000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003 000003
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
6202 7202 8202 9202 0302 1302 2302 3302 4302 5302 6302 7302 8302 9302 0402 1402
Oz Au
source: company filings, IKN ests
RIO.to at Fenix: Feas Study AISC estimates vs our 2025
model estimated AISC
6311 0061 6731 0071 5601 0051 9911 0051 9521 0081 5641 0081 5121 0041 0931 0041
FS AISC
U$/oz Au est model AISC
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 800 600
400
200
0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
source: company filings, IKN ests and calcs etc
So far so good. We then apply five difference average gold price assumptions to this model, in order to show
the range of results and demonstrate how the higher gold price makes all the difference at RIO.to Fenix:
Stress test price U$2,500/oz: In its 2023 FS, RIO.to uses a base case gold price of U$1,750/oz and
that’s all well and good, but these days gold is a very different kettle of fish and if the price slipped
back under U$2,500/oz you wouldn’t want to be holding any gold miner bought at today’s prices.
Base case price U$3,000/oz, which would sound weird even if you told someone as late as December
2024 it was a "base case", but again these days gold has become a different proposition.
Lower median price U$3,300/oz, for those who don't want to assume too much.
Higher median price U$3,500/oz and after due consideration, this is the price I'm using to set my own
price target.
Current price U$4,000/oz: We're in heady days now and the $4k model reflects the current going rate,
impressive it might be but it's also reality
Blue sky case U$4,500/oz. The way gold is moving, this might be out of date soon but for the time
being I don't want to pitch too high.
Our final variable in the RIO.to valuation model is an important one, as we apply five different discount rates
to the calculations to model different capital costs, We run discount rates of 5%, 8%, 10% 12% and 15%
and while only the last two are a reflection of the true cost of capital, it's worth considering the 5% and 8%
levels because that's normally how mining projects are pitched to their audiences. For what it’s worth, my
personal price target is generated on the higher of the five, as 15% these days is the closest to true cost of
capital for mining projects. In the event that a third party buys out RIO.to (or Fenix) and builds out Phase 2,
a bigger company with the financial firepower to fund its development would benefit greatly for the lower
cost of capital involved, as such a buyer of RIO.to would probably be willing to pay the 12% or perhaps even
the 10% line item targets.
That list of assumptions and frames boils down to this, a table showing the ranges of price targets at the
different gold price averages and discount rates (strictly speaking the “weighted average cost of capital”, or
“WACC” for short): It should be easy enough to read, note below:
RIO.to at Fenix: Price target range at various discount rates and gold prices (CAD$)
Discount Rate Assumed gold price (U$/oz)
(WACC) 2500 3000 3300 3500 4000 4500
5% 4.16 7.15 8.95 10.15 13.15 16.15
8% 2.87 5.26 6.7 7.65 10.05 12.44
10% 2.21 4.3 5.55 6.38 8.47 10.55
12% 1.69 3.52 4.61 C$5.34 7.17 9
15% 1.15 2.6 3.52 C$4.13 5.65 7.18
source: IKN calcs from company data
As noted above, the 5% and 8% WACC lines are there mostly to show how a mine (company) valuation is
often wildly over-estimated by the market at project stage. We’ll often get a PEA that assumes a 5% discount
rate, effectively its assumed cost of capital, when the reality is that companies normally pay around 15% for
capital costs these days.
The second observation to make is how RIO.to at Fenix has greatly benefited from the rise in gold prices. At
U$2,500/oz, the project barely generates enough to cover its current share price but as we go up the scale,
more and more of its value is driven directly to equity. RIO.to at Fenix offers excellent leverage to the gold
price, despite its relatively low overall AISC (which we have priced very conservatively) due to its low capital
cost and expansion cost, as well as being a single asset company.
The idea of offering this table with a range of price target results is to give you, the reader, the opportunity
to disagree with your author easily. You may prefer to pitch on the low side for gold and assume U$3,000/oz,
or you may think that dialing in the current spot price and using U$4,000/oz is perfectly valid. Equally, you
may want to do the same as I and assume a true 15% WACC instead of something that only exists in PEAs,
or if your exit strategy is a buyout, consider the 10% discount line. However, please keep in mind that inputs
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to get to this table include conservative assumptions (e.g AISC, DD&A) which skew the price targets lower
still, all with the aim of making any surprises to the upside.
Which brings me to my own conclusion, a new price target of C$4.13 for Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) which
implies an upside of 95.7% to this weekend’s share price. That’s shaded in yellow, you’ll also note
that I’ve included the 12% discount rate generated target for the U$3.500/oz line, C$5.34, which would be
in-play if an offer eventually came for the company.
RIO.to has turned into the right company with the right project at the right time and while there are a few
gold mining stocks with better share price performances this year, there aren’t many and that’s all to do with
lucky timing. Coming to the end of a successful build-out at the same moment that gold hits new All-time
Highs is luck, but even so we firmly believe that the market doesn’t yet fully understand how the real value at
Fenix is yet to be unlocked. Now RIO.to has tipped its hand and given us a timeline, a production target and
a rough capex cost for its Phase 2, we begin to see how that will push the stock price higher even under our
conservatively pitched parameters. It’s a Top Pick for a very good reason and there’s no way I’m selling yet,
not even if gold corrects deeply.
Stocks to Follow
Another positive week for the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list and adding to the fun, some immediate returns from the
two trades announced in IKN854 last weekend. There are now 17 open positions on the list and of those,
eleven were week-over-week winners (RIO.v, MAI.v, ARG.to, MARI.to, WRLG.v, AU.v, AMC.v, RPX.v, XXIX.v,
OCI.v, MENE.v), five were losers (GROY, SRL.v, LMS.v, PAU.cse, PGDC.v) and one was unchanged
(MIRL.cse). There were five double figure percentage winners in the group too, headed by Red Pine
Exploration (RPX.v up 30.8%…we added more just in time) and backed up by Mene Inc (MENE.v up 26.3%),
Arizona Metals (AMC.to up 22.2% and we got 13% of that move), Orecap Inv (OCI.v up 11.8%) and West
Red Lake (WRLG.v up 10.5%). Aside those, it was good to see all major holdings bar GROY move in the right
direction.
With the addition of Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to) to the mix, we’re up to 17 open positions on our Stocks to
Follow list, three under our self-imposed maximum. Three of the stocks are in the red, the others are in the
green.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$2.11 163.8% Re-rated to new C$4.13 tgt
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.45 114.3% $0.70 tgt no longer top pick
Amerigo Res ARG.to HOLD C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$2.80 81.8% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$12.04 294.8% Quality Cu dev, FS due
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$3.60 157.1% 2nd target U$5 in 2026
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.88 20-Jul-25 C$1.05 19.3% 2 adds, re-rate trade, $1.44tgt
Aurion Res AU.v STR BUY C$1.15 21-Sep-25 C$1.10 -4.3% new trade on WWAD
Arizona Metals AMC.to STR BUY C0.68 5-Oct-25 C$0.77 13.2% new trade on bull mkt dynamic
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.12 8-Sep-24 C$0.17 41.7% Added more Sep & Oct'25
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.155 93.8% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.245 28.9% proj.generator, Organullo spec
Provenance Gold PAU.cse spec buy C$0.15 27-Aug-25 C$0.255 70.0% Idaho gold drill play
XXIX Metal XXIX.v spec buy C$0.095 27-Aug-25 C$0.125 31.6% new trade on copper & land
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.095 60.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
9
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.165 725.0% Rio Negro gold developer
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.24 -46.7% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
Minera Alamos MAI.v Aug'25 C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% lightened overweight position
Surge Copper SURG.v Sep'25 $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.215 104.8% took profits, good result
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes on the featured companies
Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to): POSITION OPENED. As per IKN854 last weekend, I bought a slug of
AMC early Monday and didn’t think twice about paying 5c above last weekend’s closing price. The market was
red hot that day, the plan was set and after battling my own headspace to get the issue out in time for the
Monday open, it wasn’t the time for nuance.
I owe you a closer look at the company after the overview note last weekend that didn’t go particularly deep.
The plan was to feature that today but as things have turned out, there’s no real rush to press a trade that’s
got its timing right and I prefer to do a deeper dive on AMC and lay out the fundamental reasons to think it’s
not quite as bad as the market has made out in recent months. The bottom line to this trade is that of “The
Ugly” as laid out in IKN854, “…the next stage in a long-term bull market when stocks don’t move up despite
being inferior, instead they move up because they are inferior.” AMC is an outstanding laggard and that
simple fact makes it a valid trade option in October 2025. We’ll do a decent job on AMC next week.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): POSITION ADDED. The third add to this growing position happened at
virtually the same time as the AMC buy (I wasn’t messing around) and while the cost average has crept a
little higher as a result, the timing turned out to be just fine as RPX has apparently broken out at long last.
There’s plenty more on the stock in ‘Market Watching’, below.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Still thinking of selling. For a moment, first thing Wednesday morning, I
thought we’d see PAU ping 30c and push me into a making that hold/sell decision I was mulling over last
weekend, but the price didn’t hold, then PAU traded the same as most stocks on Friday and gave up some
ground. The 25.5c finish is still a reasonable place and the stock is building a floor level, no reason why we
shouldn’t see 30c soon if the market goes back into bullish mode.
The reason for the pop at the bell Wednesday was this NR
(8), its latest drill result from Eldorado in East Oregon
entitled “Provenance Gold Intercepts 1.01 g/t Gold Over
108.20m within 172.21m of 0.82 g/t Gold from Surface,
Extending Mineralization 730 Meters South, Identifying A
Major New Target at Eldorado West”. They like their
prosaic titles and I do, too, saves me a job of explaining.
Anyway, taking profits and closing this spec trade is still a
possibility if we see 30c in quick time. Not desperate to
sell at any price, but it’s never going to be a high
conviction trade.
10
Aurion Resources (AU.v): This one hasn’t moved much with the field and frankly, I’m not expecting it to.
This is low profile stock that deliberately chooses not to play the retail marketing game, it’s not going to be
first on the list of momentum stocks and is as likely to languish at current levels on low volume than move in
either direction (though as noted previously, I’d be happy about a modest sell-off as it would mean a chance
to add at a discount).
Since opening coverage and recommending the stock in IKN852, I’ve had a smattering of conversations with
people connected to the company, either loosely or fairly intimately, and the common trait of the exchanges
is that AU is the key land holder that unlocks the entire region. That puts our “WWAD?” thesis on the right
path, as do the persistent talk picked up in the last couple of weeks that Rupert Resources (RUP.to) has tried
and failed to force AU.v into a deal on more than once occasion. It may be stating the obvious, but Lotan
knows what he’s sitting on and what it’s worth.
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): A volatile week for GROY, which briefly re-took the U$4.00 line before getting
hit in the late week selling raft (it’s direct exposure to NYSE investors can be double-edged sword) to close
down 6% (23c) on the week, the only one of your author’s larger sized positions to record a loss on the week
(not so bad considering what GDX did on Friday). We can expect its 3q25 preliminary revenues NR this
month, but GROY tends to be a little later with this number than the field and best guess is a couple of weeks
to go before that NR. To its benefit, Aura (AUGO) is now in full commercial production at Borborema, but on
the other hand we also know from the 3q25 NR out of DPM Metals (DPM.to) that initial production from its
new Adriatic mine will be scaled back for the rest of 2025 as the new owners want to re-tool and do the mine
its own way. They announced 3q25 copper production of 1.6m lbs at Adriatic and GROY owns the 100%
royalty on that metal in that mine.
This is a very easy one to hold and the recent volatility offers a buying window for those so inclined. Anyone
basing their view of GROY on what the company will achieve in 2025 is getting it all wrong, this is about 2025
being the breakeven year, then 2026 and beyond demonstrating what the royalty book really means. A
maturing story in a hot sub-sector, there is no more obvious M&A target in the royalty/streamer space than
this company and I don’t expect it to last another 12 months.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to): A lot more on RIO.to in today’s main fundies section, here we limit comments to price
action Our Top Pick had a good week, registering an intraday
all-time high and a closing ATH of C$2.11 on Friday. No news
aside from another “look at our progress we’re doing just fine”
video on RIO.to’’s social media channels, but a look at the
2025 YTD chart compared to GDXJ shows the move is a
simple continuation of what we’ve seen all year.
It also shows that however good the year has been for the
juniors (GDXJ up 136%), Rio2's 235% increase on ever
increasing volume places it in the top echelon of sector
performers in 2025. And that's not a bad thing when it's your
Top Pick.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): And on the subject of Top Picks, the disappointment of 2025 managed to put in a
good week and show reasonable consolidating volume in a market that could have put a renewed dose of
nerves into holders. Unlike RIO.to, MAI.v has lagged the GDXJ and is up 73% on the year, which isn't bad in
absolute terms but it's still a poor showing, all things considered. The new owner of Pan would have seen
how the old owner of Pan squeezed 10,900 oz out of the mine during Q3 and now has a benchmark on which
to build.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): Perhaps the penny has started to drop about the relative value offered by OCI. The
Friday close of 9.5c may have flattered by half a cent, but there was plenty of support at 9c on Thursday and
Friday morning even as component stocks in its liquid-ish assets book such as American Eagle (AE.v) and
Awale (ARIC.v) traded on the weaker side:
11
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
ticker shares owned(m) PPS valueC$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.53 6.25 2.5
ARIC.v 7.39 0.61 4.51 1.8
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.41 1.71 0.7
XXIX.v 22.992 0.125 2.87 1.2
KTR.v 42.75 0.08 3.42 1.4
MERG.v 5.125 0.035 0.18 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.05 1.24 0.5
subtotal 20.17 8.1
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 20.20 8.2c
At 248.332 S/O
The per-share value of 8.2c compares to the 9.5c close, just about the biggest breach we’ve seen since the
three-cornered deal with XXIX to incorporate Kintavar (KTR.v…soon to be Auriginal) into the Ore Group fold.
For comparative purposes, the breach was just one tenth of a penny. The reason I like OCI is its exposure to
several pies, it’s also in the process of flipping out its newcos and provided news on perhaps it’s most
interesting wholly-owned asset in the stable, McGarry, in this NR last week (4), that announced the
consolidation of its land package with a third party for a modest sum:
“Orecap acquired the remaining 25% of certain McGarry tenure to consolidate it’s 100% ownership of McGarry for
$50,000 payable in cash, and $50,000 in Orecap shares, the number of shares calculated using the preceding 10
trading day volume weighted average price (“VWAP”) of Orecap shares as of the closing date.”
That share award was exactly 618,413 shares, which brings the OCI S/O total to 248.332m and gives the
company a market cap of C$23.59m as at this weekend. Frankly, just McGarry is worth far more than that to
its most obvious buyer, i.e. its neighbour Gold Candle (Lassonde et al). I know OCI head honcho Stephen
Stewart thinks a lot of McGarry and its value potential so with the land package now consolidated, he now
has his saleable product.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Good to report the arrival of a 12-handle at MARI, even better that the
C$12+ prices were both constant and supported as the price chart (right) indicates. Indeed, I’ve added a
scrawl of red ink to the ten-day chart to point out the most
significant trading moment in the stock, that was Friday
morning when a seller decided to take profits at the bell and
dumped the market price to C$11.60. However and unlike
many other moments in this thinly-traded stock’s history,
there were buyers on hand to return it from whence it came
almost immediately and the C$12.04 close this weekend is
fully justified.
MARI filed its FS for the main Marimaca project to SEDAR last
in the week, which is now set to be pored over by prospective
financiers and buyers alike. We’re at the moment of truth, as
aside the new and exciting Pampa Medina development the
reason we bought and have held this stock all this time is for the price it would be able to command to the
eventual buyer. I’ll accept C$18, thanks for asking.
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): We previewed the likely arrival of WRLG’s 3q25 production report and
nicely timed, as on Tuesday October 7th WRLG published the NR “West Red Lake Gold Reports Third Quarter
Operations Update for Madsen Mine Ramp-Up” (5). Then on Thursday we got the latest drill assay NR from
Madsen (6), which is always good for a splashy title line.
This one was “West Red Lake Gold Hits New High-Grade
Gold Lens in Lower Main Austin with 139.45 g/t Au over
7.8m, 74.70 g/t Au over 8.7m and 18.31 g/t Au over
7.5m” and those are great looking numbers, but
observers of the project already know the South (Lower)
Austin zone has always been good for a high grading
drill intercept. I’m not knocking the company for putting
12
its best foot forward and, as the near-term price chart (below) shows it seems to have worked in pimping the
stock price toward what I think this company is really worth.
Those high grading ounces will be mined eventually (and there’s now suggestion from the company that they
may begin to access the high grade muck by the end of this year), but what really matters at WRLG is to
demonstrate that the ramp-up is going according to plan and that the mine can indeed run at a tonnage
mined level which will allow the mill to produce effectively. That’s all about production numbers and it’s why
the October 7th NR is far more important than the drill NR that caused the price pop last week.
On that subject, last weekend we pointed out that the raw Q3 numbers are the important bit, instead it’s the
near-term guidance. A quote from IKN854 on WRLG:
The market seems to suggest its Q3 will disappoint, but that may be a little two-dimensional in its
outlook as what really matters is the timeline to commercial production. When the production NR
shows, the market will care a lot more about what WRLG expects in Q4 than what happened pre-
commercial in Q3 (especially as it now has all the money it needs to finish its ramp up).
That turned out to be the case. This from last week’s NR:
In Q3 the Madsen Mine produced 35,700 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 5.4 grams per tonne gold. The mill
poured 7,055 ounces of gold. Note that mined and poured ounces do not align because of factors including month
end timings and gold in circuit. Those ounces were sold at an average price of US$3,456 per ounce for gross
proceeds of CAD$33 million.
This compares to 5,260 ounces of gold poured in Q2 for gross proceeds of CAD$24 million and 496 ounces of
gold in Q1 for gross proceeds of CAD$2.1 million. Q3 gold production represented a 34% increase over Q2 gold
production, a rate that positions Madsen to reach targeted output levels early in 2026.
The grade is going to vary in these early stages, what matters most is that the company demonstrates it can
get the muck to surface at the required rate and 3q25 gave all the right signals. This chart was included in
the NR and I’ve seen it reproduced in several other places, probably because it’s important and informative:
July 2025 was stymied by the fall-out form that unfortunate
fatal accident in late June, but August and September show
the important improvement in long hole stope (LH)
production. The sill material is higher grade, so the lower
production averages from the sill material was one of the
causes for the drop in mill head grade to 5.4 g/t. That lower
grade compared to 2q25 seems to have disappointed the
market and may have caused the selling on Tuesday, but it
didn’t bother me in the slightest. We know Madsen has the
grade and tonnage, we also know it’s still in commissioning
phase, what matters is tonnages and particularly from the
long-hole stoping. The last two months of 3q25 shows the
mine is on track and once that fact sank in, we saw the
stock price improve on Wednesday.
Overall, a good week for WRLG and unlike last weekend, I’m no longer concerned about this trade. I greatly
appreciate the way CEO Williams is going about his “slow and steady wins the race” ramp-up. Happy with the
position and my average price, I’d consider adding more on any weakness to 90c or below, but that’s just
me. If you’re looking for a safer bet for gold leverage, buy this now and run it up to my C$1.44 target price
as the stock re-rates into commercial production in 1q26.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): From its 26c price last weekend, LMS popped to 32c on low-ish volume for no
apparent reason last week, an example of how tinycaps can get bent
out of shape quickly. When the selling came it corrected sharply, then
found buyers on an otherwise difficult Friday and closed at 24.5c,
which is a penny and a half lower than this time last weekend but in
my book, it’s akin to a winning week. We’re looking for LMS to get
more market radar from its JV with AngloGold Ashanti at Organullo
and now the big company has the drills turning we’ll see if the value is
realized. This first phase (7) expects to be 10 holes and 6,000m,
13
though big company mentality isn’t normally about releasing holes piecemeal, so I’ve slated 1q26 for results.
The Copper Basket
After forty-one weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 85.08% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 1381.72 8.42 410.3%
2 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 456.77 15.22 119.9%
3 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 279.21 756.66 2.71 89.5%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 591.30 3.48 83.2%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 174.6 563.96 3.23 119.7%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.516 369.93 1.80 143.2%
7 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 335.33 2.69 31.2%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 289.289 205.40 0.71 29.1%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 175.07 162.82 0.93 38.8%
10 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 136.924 136.92 1.00 58.7%
11 Andina Copper ANDC.cse 0.16 211.085 97.10 0.46 187.5%
12 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 173.377 91.89 0.53 -23.2%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 306.308 38.29 0.125 13.6%
14 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 117.73 34.14 0.29 -7.9%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.622 17.63 0.495 -17.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg 85.08%
Wow, what a week for The Copper Basket! Not only was The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
it the tenth straight week of gains, but the basket went 100%
90%
into overdrive and added 35.95% to its average, a single 80%
70%
week record for this segment of The IKN Weekly. There 60%
50%
were even three losers (BIG.v, AE.v, HCH.v) in the mix
40%
of 15 component stocks, so let’s cover those before 30%
20%
getting to the 12 winners and the massive gainers 10%
0%
among those twelve. They are: -10%
-20%
Trilogy Metals (TMQ.to) up 191.4% week-over-
week
Element 29 (ECU.v) up 47.1% week-over-week
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v) up 33.9% week-over-week
Andina Copper (ANDC.cse) up 21.1% week-over-week
Copper Giant (CGNT.v) up 16.0% week-over-week
Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse) up 12.5% week-over-week
Regulus Resources (REG.v) up 10.7% week-over-week
Those just the double figure percentage gainers, or in the case of Trilogy, a triple.
As for copper, the bull run in the metal that started when Freeport told us about the depth (no pun intended)
of its Grasberg block caving woes gathered further momentum all week and the noise around the metal got
louder and louder. Our preferred benchmark, the near-dated Comex contract (currently HGZ25, December
delivery) traded heavily and above U$5/lb all week as the world was told and repeated back all the talking
points about the metal that close observers (e.g. you and me) have understood for months, nay years.
14
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21
source: IKN calcs
The Chinese Golden Week holiday came to an end Wednesday, which fueled the fire when its speculators
joined in the fray and we got headlines on Thursday October 9th (8) of “Copper hits $11,000 a ton as
investors bet on shortages”. Here’s how that Reuters note began;
Oct 9 (Reuters) - Copper struck $11,000 per metric ton on Thursday, a milestone not seen for 16
months as investors piled into the metal after a series of disruptions to mine supply led to fears of
shortages, while aluminium hit a more than three-year peak.
However, less than 24 hours went by before China’s decision to face Trump down on tariffs saw the entire
market go into reverse. October 10th during early trading hours (9) we got “Copper falls as Trump's
comment on China sparks trade war fears” and by the time Friday was through, the futures contract had
dropped off the proverbial cliff. We’re yet to see that filter into spot prices, but that should happen overnight
Asia and assuming it does, expect headlines lumping the Good Doctor Copper in with the losses taken by the
.
crypto bros this weekend More below on the subject.
Now for our regular check on the weekly changes in copper inventories, this weekend data comes directly
from the three exchanges as once again, Chile’s State entities are closed Friday for a public holiday and long
weekend. Lucky country.
Despite the sharp rise in copper prices, world copper stocks in the three official systems out in a
significant uptick and added 26,879 metric tonnes (mt) to close the week at 557,177mt. An
interesting move, particularly when we see where most of the copper landed.
That was in China, as Shanghai SHFE copper nventories rose by a significant 14,656mt to close
Friday at 109,690mt. It was the first week back after the big eight day holiday and there may have
been metal waiting to move into storage, so it’s best not to jump to any conclusions, but as the
chart below shows, that’s a notable move.
However, LME’s copper inventory remained all-but flat on the week, stocks dropping a paltry 1,000mt
(exactly) to close the week at 139,475.
The other big move was at the Comex, where apparent weakness in end-user demand and the
overstock of metal after all that Trump tariff fun mid-year continues to weigh on the market. This
weekend’s grand total of tonnages in the Comex system comes to 308,012mt, another new record
and a big 13,223mt up on the total this time last weekend. The “roach motel” and “what they
going to do with all this metal” comments from the typo-ridden section in IKN854 last weekend all
fully apply today.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows that up tick and there’s now no doubt, SHFE stocks have moved away from
the near-stockout levels and pattern showed in 2021, 2022 and 2023. It’s now joined the lines of the more
stocked years and as of this weekend there isn’t any issue in getting supply (no matter what the price does in
the world market).
15
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
This data is a long way from the headlines pushing the narrative of a tight copper market this week. With the
series of reports from big suppliers announcing shortfalls in production, e.g. Freeport, more recently Teck
dropping guidance for this year and next, then Codelco confirming its production from El Teniente is going to
be lower than expected for longer (Codelco just announced its worst August month production since 2003
and due to El Teniente, don’t expect anything better from September’s numbers when they arrive). Add in
the presumed drop off in production at La Escondida, the world’s biggest copper mine, in 2026 as that
company is expected to favour sustaining capital work (cut backs) over production. Add it all up and we get
headlines like this one (10):
Slower production growth will push copper market to deficit in 2026, says ICSG
….with report bodies like this one:
LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - The global refined copper market is expected to swing to a deficit of 150,000 metric
tons in 2026 from the previously expected surplus of 209,000 tons due to slower production growth, the
International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said.
Copper prices briefly hit a 16-month peak on Wednesday due to worries about potential shortages from a series of
recent mine disruptions in Indonesia, Chile and Congo.
These incidents prompted the ICSG to revise down its forecast for the 2025 global mine production growth to
1.4% from 2.3% it expected in April, it said in a statement on Wednesday.
For 2025, these incidents will narrow down the surplus in the refined copper market to 178,000 tons from the
previously expected 289,000 tons.
Find the link to the ICSG press release here (11) for more details. The inference is a tight market, but copper
has probably adjusted too much too soon (doctorate in economics or not). For one thing, current stocks show
no sign of tightness and for another, there’s plenty of copper languishing in The USA that can quickly move
to Asia and make up any shortfall. Finally, that 2026 deficit is weighted to the back end of the year, as the
copper market typically over-supplies in the first quarter of any given year. Long story short, we agree that
the production disruptions are important but the current frothy market will have fundamental room for
correction once people see there’s enough copper to meet needs for the next two to three quarters. After
that, i.e. the second half of 2026, the game really changes.
Bottom line: Copper is probably overbought in the near-term, but to paraphrase JM Keynes, the way the
market is running at the moment means that it can stay overbought for longer than anyone opposing the
move could remain solvent.
No notes on basket companies this week, the market was dominated by the massive move from TMQ and
that seemed to drag other explorecos upward such as ALDE. But as these prices aren’t for buying or for
selling until we know more, I defer commentary until next weekend. That and I’m lazy.
The Producer Basket
After 41 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 116.24% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1108 94.34 85.14 128.7%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 502.579 82.61 164.38 110.2%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1705.994 55.85 32.74 111.2%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 39.31 204.62 74.0%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1320 6.71 5.08 108.2%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 5.66 27.60 85.6%
7 OceanaGold OGC.to 11.94 231.127 5.60 33.18 177.9%
8 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 5.41 6.84 175.8%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 3.59 12.11 117.0%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 2.34 15.60 73.7%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 116.24%
After nine straight week-over-week gains, we finally get a correction week in which GDX dropped by 1.7%
and our basket by a little more than that, thanks to a total of eight losers (NEM, AEM, B, FNV, EGO, NGD,
SAND, WDOFF) versus just two week-over-week winners (BTG, OGC.to). The biggest drops on the week were
in Franco-Nevada (FNV down 7.1%) and New Gold (NGD down 6.9%), while the best performer by a
distance was the 7.0% added by OceanaGold (OGC.to), a company that can apparently do no wrong at the
moment. As for our semi-serious race with GDX, it’s not looking good and at some point I’m going to have to
start reconciling myself to a shameful loss in 2025, we’re now trailing the sector benchmark ETF by 7.59%
with less than three months to the finish line.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
140% comparative to GDX control
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to): It’s taken until now, but Thursday saw the buyout of SAND by Royal Gold
(RGLD) get shareholder approval (12):
Vancouver, BC | Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (“Sandstorm Gold Royalties”,
“Sandstorm” or the “Company”) (NYSE: SAND, TSX: SSL) is pleased to
provide the voting results from the Company’s Special Meeting of
Shareholders (the “Meeting”) held today, October 9, 2025 in Vancouver,
at which 58% of the Company’s issued common shares (“Shares”), as of
the record date for the Meeting, were represented. The Company’s
shareholders have approved, by Special Resolution, the Company’s plan
of arrangement (the “Arrangement”) with Royal Gold, Inc. (“Royal Gold”),
whereby Royal Gold will indirectly acquire all of the issued and
outstanding Shares.
The Arrangement was approved by (i) 98.68% of the votes cast by…” etc
SAND and RGLD have traded in virtual lockstep since the deal was
announced on July 7th and with the closure now expected for
October 20th, we can flip SAND for RGLD in our portfolio and get
the same effect.
Barrick (B) (ABX.to): On the back of the sudden exit Africa’s Greatest Miner™ from the company, last
week B announced (13) the sale of its Tongon mine, located in Côte d'Ivoire and one of the mines brought
into Barrick by the merger with Randgold, i.e. when Bristow took over the company. The sale is to a Côte
d'Ivoire national concern for a total consideration of U$305m and while announcement of the sale isn’t a
surprise the price tag is; just a few months ago Barrick’s erstwhile CEO was on record as looking for “at least
17
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
8%
ikn 6%
gdx control
4%
2%
0%
source: IKN calcs -2%
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
half a billion” for Tongon, and here we are, with gold hitting new heights by the week and the sale coming in
U$200m lower than the mooted price tag. Add that to the timing, just two weeks after the departure of
Bristow, and there’s more than a little pique on show.
This chart (right) featuring Barrick compared to major rival Newmont (NEM) and the two benchmark gold
ETFs over the last two months, shows how the momentum gained in September by the Fourmile
announcement at the Denver Gold Show has evaporated. To that point an under-performer on the year, B
rushed up and added 22% in quick time but since then, has tracked back while its main peers (NEM, GDX)
have caught it up. The retreat was triggered by the departure of Bristow and for more on that, Niall McGill in
the Globe and Mail has this weekend published this report (14) entitled “Inside the power struggle at Barrick
that led to the ouster of CEO Mark Bristow”, which makes mention of some of the corporate weaknesses seen
in B recently but above all, frames the firing of Bristow as a clash between him and the company Chair, John
Thornton. You’re encouraged to read the entire note, here are some excerpts that zero in on the feud
between the big swinging Richards at the top:
“The relationship between Bristow and Thornton had been frayed for a number of years,” said Pierre Lassonde,
co-founder and chairman emeritus of Franco-Nevada Corp., the world’s biggest mining royalty firm, who has
known and worked with both for decades.
“There was a personality clash.”
Mr. Bristow was also known for his big personality, proudly boasting about his track record while simultaneously
bad-mouthing his competitors, once telling The Globe and Mail that Kinross Gold Corp.’s mines were cow dung.
Mr. Thornton, a long-time investment banker at Goldman Sachs, was no shrinking violet either. While he rarely
spoke to the press, and wasn’t someone to publicly denigrate a competitor, he had a powerful intellect and ego,
and wasn’t afraid to show it.
Two sources familiar with the situation said that Mr. Thornton had a constant need to be seen as the smartest
person in the room, a personality trait that set him on a collision course with Mr. Bristow.
The Globe and Mail is not identifying the sources because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Initially, the power structure at the top appeared to work, with Mr. Bristow acting as the public face of the
company, getting stuck in on the nitty-gritty of running mines, and duking it out with pesky analysts on quarterly
earnings calls. Meanwhile the jet-setting Mr. Thornton floated above the daily minutiae as the strategic guru, sitting
on panels at international conferences, and only surfacing sporadically at Barrick with prepared remarks to
shareholders at the annual meeting.
However, over time, the relationship between the two soured. Mr. Bristow’s laser focus on internal growth in lieu of
mergers and acquisitions was a bone of contention. Despite doing diligence on many opportunities to buy smaller
competitors over the years, Mr. Bristow would not pull the trigger.
In the meantime, Barrick’s competitors gladly filled the deal-making void, with Kinross acquiring Great Bear
Resources Ltd., Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. buying Detour Gold Corp. and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. then snapping up
Kirkland Lake. These deals brought huge value to the acquiring companies, and sizable stock market gains, all of
which was aided and abetted by a roaring bull market in gold.
A big part of Mr. Bristow’s reticence to pay up for M&A was his strong belief that mining deals should be done at
no premium. In the mid- to late-2000s, companies routinely paid 30-per-cent or 40-per-cent premiums for
acquisitions. The industry was later forced to take tens of billions in writedowns after the price of gold plummeted.
But with gold charging from about US$1,300 an ounce when Mr. Bristow started as CEO of Barrick to almost
US$4,000 by the time he stepped down, his worries about overpaying for M&A have been proven wrong.
On more than one occasion, Mr. Lassonde tried to explain to Mr. Bristow that he wasn’t seeing the forest for the
trees.
“I would say, ‘Mark, price is what you pay, value is what you get. Yes you may end up paying 20 per cent more,
but if it’s worth 50 or 100 per cent more, why do you hesitate?’” Mr. Lassonde said.
“‘No, I will never pay a premium,’ was his response. So that became a dogma, and he shot himself in the foot
because there were acquisitions to be made.”
18
Mr. Bristow’s reticence to strike on M&A also wore thin on Mr. Thornton. At an international mining conference in
June last year, Mr. Thornton criticized his strategy, mining news site Miningmx reported.
“Barrick has been, in my view, very slow to say to themselves: the most important thing when you’re buying
companies in the mining industry … is just buy it," Mr. Thornton said. “We have not done that. We have insisted on
getting into the weeds and that has been a mistake.”
The denouement of Mr. Bristow occurred over a weekend. Both sources said Mr. Thornton talked to him on Sat.
Sept 27. The next day, the board met and voted to remove Mr. Bristow. The press release was issued early
Monday morning.
Newmont (NEM): We made mention of this in today’s intro section. When you’re trying to work out
whether the music has stopped, we pay attention to the
sector’s market leaders and when it comes to precious metals,
NEM is still #1 and no matter its reputation for bloat, it’s the
only precious metals company included in the S&P500 and
along with GDX, the preferred entry (and exit) route for the
largest money and deepest financial pockets
Long story short, in a week where gold rose by 3.2% we
witness the world’s #1 gold miner drop by 2.0%, or 3.8% if
you take Monday’s close as your start point. That means the
gold miners were influenced more by the state of the stock
market than that of the thing they sell and while not an
outright red flag that gets you reaching for the insta-sell
button, it’s the type of negative reaction to positive news that may signal a top beginning to form.
A yellow flag, rather than a red one. We take it into consideration, but only if bigger things start to happen to
the price of gold.
The TinyCaps List
After 41 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 49.77% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 11.52 0.085 -50.0%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 29.23 0.195 34.5%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 6.43 0.065 -50.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 45.84 0.26 79.3%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 85.7 68.56 0.80 105.1%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 29.87 0.245 206.3%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 374.759 119.92 0.32 146.2%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 16.13 0.15 76.5%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 16.26 0.235 -57.3%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 21.83 0.15 7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 49.77%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
19
Another winning week for the TinyCaps List, consolidating
the big upmove of the week before last and putting the 60% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
average at +50% for the year (bar 23 hundredths). 50%
However, the winning week was almost completely due to 40%
the pimping of South Star (STS.v up 42.4%) and Condor 30%
20%
(CN.v up 30.0%) in what looks for all the world like
10%
artificially priced trades that aren’t likely to stand the test
0%
of time. In all, there were six winners (BRO.v, CN.v,
-10%
EDG.v, KDK.v, MOG.v, STS.v) including those two big
movers, while the four losers (ELY.v, LMS.v, RDU.v,
VAU.v) were less dynamic, the biggest hit taken by
Elecrtum Discovery (ELY.v down 13.3%...in other words a
penny).
Condor Resources (CN.v): Four weeks ago this was an 11.5c stock with zero buying interest, today it’s
nearly 70% higher at 19.5c and without any news of note in the meantime. Your author has chosen AMC.to
for his vehicle, but CN.v also fits the frame of “The Ugly” as featured in IKN854 last weekend. Here’s a quote
to remind:
The Ugly: With the bad stocks now moving, our thoughts turn to the next stage in a long-term
bull market when stocks don’t move up despite being inferior, instead they move up because
they are inferior.
CN is still the broken story of before, we haven’t seen much volume in the stock either (even the 228k traded
Thursday isn’t that much in absolute dollar terms. The market is what it is.
South Star (STS.v): As for the list’s big winner last week, we’ve already made plenty of comments about its
“broken story” status this year, noted the recent firing of its CEO and made it clear this stock will not be a
part of the 2026 TinyCaps list. In the last two weeks, we’ve seen the appointment of STS’s largest
shareholder as interim CEO and a C$6.25m (U$4.5m) capital raise, mostly via a placement at 15c that
includes a full warrant at 20c. Again, the new CEO is lead order on the placement. Therefore, seeing the
stock suddenly ping on thin volume to 23c, theoretically putting those warrants in-the-money even before the
placement closes isn’t the type of price move one chases. Avoid.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: Protests having limited effect
The protests against President Daniel Noboa’s government, mainly around his decision to end the heavy
government subsidies on diesel fuel, are now three weeks old and the noise coming from the protagonist
CONAIE indigenous group is as loud as ever, but scratch the surface and we note that disruption is now
limited to the CONAIE stronghold Imbabura region, where eight of the current ten roadblocks are located
(with two others in Pichincha region). Notably, there’s a long weekend in Ecuador it’s typical to see its
beaches packed with city dwellers taking advantage of the extra day off. Reports today Sunday tell of full
beaches and amenities, strongly suggesting that day-to-day life in Ecuador is unaffected by the protests.
Protests are likely to rumble on until the next obvious date on the calendar, that’s November 16th and the
national referendum called by Noboa to decide on eight specific questions, including the potential to re-open
the Manta military base to foreign soldiers (i.e. the US battalions that used to call it home before Rafael
Correa kicked them out ten years ago).
Bottom line: More noise than effect in Ecuador’s protests against Noboa. Not a bad thing.
UPDATE MONDAY: The government has picked up on the limited scale of the CONAIE protest and its regional
focus at Imbabura today, with the Interior Minister sending a contingent of troops into the zone to clear
roadblocks and saying “enough is enough”. Therefore, my assumption that the protests “rumble on” may not
20
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
be the case. Clearly, it suits the government to have the protest cleared up before the referendum comes
around, we’ll see this week if they can do it.
Peru has a new President
We’re not going into the weeds on this, unless of course tyou want 25,000 words on Peruvian politics.
Instead you get the need-to-know about the ouster of Peru’s (now-ex) President Dina Boluarte for the mining
world in four bullet points:
Above all, the shenanigans are unlikely to affect the mining sector in any meaningful way. True the
mediocrity of Peru’s government and executive have held back the industry and added to the time and
cost of doing exploration and development business in the country, also true that’s not about to change
with more turmoil in Lima’s halls of power. However, that’s not a new thing and already fully baked into
the risks of doing business in Peru. The exit of Boluarte and swearing in of interim President José Jeri in
the wee small hours of Friday morning makes the count seven Presidents in seven years and in all that
time, business in general and mining as our focus has kept rumbling along. Far from perfectly, but
another change at the top isn’t going to alter that fact.
That said, Dina Boluarte’s tenure was always dependent on her usefulness to the country’s corrupt and
self-serving Congress. Last week was the seventh time Boluarte had seen a motion “to vacate” (i.e. a
vote of No Confidence, or impeachment) brought against her but in all previous occasions, she had the
support of enough voting blocks. This time, those same blocks decided she was no longer useful to
them and the motion to vacate the Presidency due to “permanent moral incapacity” (I kid you not) was
passed, 121 votes out of 130.
The charges were brought against her due to a recent crime wave in the country and the lack of
meaningful responses from her government. In other words an excellent excuse, as the self-serving
Congress can now campaign on some “we’re tough on crime” platform in the upcoming elections in
2026. Boluarte was extremely unpopular with one and all (approval rating around 5%) and won’t be
missed by the country, she was useful to Congress until she wasn’t, she now takes a deserved fall and
will now likely face criminal charges pending from her decision to order police to repress protesters in
2022 and 2023 with live rounds, causing the deaths of at least 50 people at the time. She’s also likely
to face corruption charges and, at the very least, will have to explain to a judge how the net worth of
her and her family members have taken such a sharp move upward in the last three years.
Importantly, we’re highly unlikely to see the current election date for April next year brought forward.
Although not impossible, it’s constitutionally very difficult (15) to change the now official election
agenda and what’s more, the great and good in Congress seem to be happy enough to let Head of
Congress José Jeri take the role until then. He’s not going to rock the boat and that’s what Congress
wants, another six months in which its members can pilfer whatever they can.
As a sidebar, Mr. Jeri is a bit of a character as well. Known for private life peccadilloes, he recently had a case
of sexual assault brought against him (it was closed down by a prosecutor that decided not to look too deeply
at the case) and when some hacker recently got into his social media account and published its contents, he
was shown to be a fan of porn stars and a paying member of the adult website “Brazzers” (porn site names
are funny).
Bottom line: Meet the new stuffed suit in charge of Peru, just the same as the old stuffed suit. Interim
President Jeri is unlikely to do anything world-stage dramatic during his interim Presidency, he’ll look to
garner popular support in some sort of “crackdown on crime” but in FDI terms, please consider Peru
unchanged. The real moment comes next year when we find out which of the stuffed suits gets to become
the next President and as things stand today, the race is wide open.
Argentina: Lots going on
October 26th and the “elecciones legislativas” mid-term election is now looming very large in Argentina and if
you want to check out the latest polls, this wiki page (16) does the collation well (Argentina loves its opinion
pollsters and there are plenty to choose from), suffice to say it depends on which polling company you prefer,
but it’s tight between the Milei government and its main Peronist/Kirchnerist opposition, both camps polling
around the 40% level and the other parties now in single digits. The election has turned into a straight fight
and is all about casting a judgment on Milei and his government, the stakes are now high.
21
Which is probably why The USA has intervened so obviously, with the promised U$20Bn in support for the
Argentina Peso becoming a reality last week. The nuances are somewhat important, but what this boils down
to is Trump’s government buying U$20Bn worth of Argentina Pesos and propping up the currency, thereby
adding financial solidity to the Argentina Central Bank (BCRA) and alleviating inflation at a key moment. It’s
Trump’s way of boosting Milei into this election and while unsubtle, it may work.
However and as stated, the mid-term is going to be a tight race and the uncertainly is now affecting the
mining scene. Take for example this report (17) on a presser given by one Roberto Cacciola, President of
Argentina’s biggest chamber of mining commerce the “Cámara Argentina de Empresas Mineras (CAEM)
entitled (translated) “Despite RIGI, mining companies say investments depend on whether Javier Milei does
well in the elections”. Here’s a quote from Señor Cacciola, also translated:
“The panorama has become more uncertain than it was three months ago…at present, nobody is
making a move until they know whether Milei has managed to consolidate his political position.”
One of the ways this will manifest in the mining industry is in the country’s so-called “Glaciar Law”, the one
set up during the Kirchner years to protect high Andean water sources and one of the laws that’s stopped the
development of large-scale mines in the Argentina side of the Cordillera. The mining industry has lobbied
hard to get the law altered and its terms relaxed, so that mines can go ahead. Milei is on their side and wants
to bring about the proposed reforms but if his government fares badly on October 26th and becomes a lame
duck, it’s less likely to see the reforms getting through congress quickly, unaltered or even at all. The mining
world knows that and is waiting on pledging further money to Argentina before the result is known, so if the
companies are taking that attitude perhaps you as investors should do as well.
In the same presentation and presser, CAEM President Roberto Cacciola laid out the four conditions (8)
required by Argentina’s mining industry in order to reach its full potential. They are:
Changes in the Glaciar Law
No export taxes on lithium and silver
A more robust local supply chain for large-scale mines
Privatization of logistics and transport infrastructure, e.g. highways and train routes
The third and fourth in the list are medium-term targets, but the first two are law changes that can and
would happen in the event Milei does well in two weeks’ time. But if he doesn’t all bets are off.
Finally, expect immediate feedback from Argentina’s mining sector on the results and ramifications of the
October 26th election because. By coincidence or otherwise, the country’s longest-standing and one of its
biggest mining conferences, Argentina Mining 2025, is set to happen in the city of Mendoza on October 29th
to 31st. It’s the first time in 17 years that Argentina Mining 2025 is being held in Mendoza and the newly
miner-friendly region is bound to make a lot of positive noises for those present, however the atmosphere will
all depend on how the election goes. If Milei does well, it’ll be party time in Mendoza (18).
Chile: The Presidential election race developing as expected
With just five weeks to go before the big day, we're keeping an eye on the polls for the Chilean election first
round vote. Respected polling company Black & White published its latest voter intention poll last week (19)
and has the top five runners in this order of preference for valid votes (i.e. does not include spoiled ballots or
undecided votes):
Jara: 31.1%
Kast: 25.3%
Matthei: 17.5%
Kaiser: 14%
Parisi: 6.7%
Basically no change in the pecking order, with the chosen lefty Jeannette Jara virtually certain to make the
second round run-off but nowhere close to the level required to win outright in round one. That means we'll
get a run-off between her and the second placed candidate and there's little change there, either. José
Antonio Kast is firm favourite to make it to the second round and assuming he does, will be red hot fave to
beat Jara as he consolidates the right wing votes (of Matthei and Kaiser) behind him. It's LatAm and its an
election, so there's nothing guaranteed but this is still one of the most straightforward election calls I can
22
remember. Kast is set to be the next President of Chile unless something big happens to upset the
campaign(s).
PS: A new poll to add this Saturday evening, with reputable pollster Panel Ciudadano-UDD offering these
numbers (20):
Jara: 24%
Kast: 25%
Matthei: 17%
Kaiser: 10%
Parisi: 8%
Even better for Kast, in a technical dead heat for first place (though this poll uses total voates and not valid
votes) and another example of the steady state of voter intention we’ve seen in this campaign. Chile seems
to have made its decision and will put Jara against Kast in the run-off, then Kast wins.
Market Watching
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) files its annuals
As noted above in ‘Stocks to Follow’ and as per IKN854 last weekend, I managed to add the shares of RPX I
was looking for early last week and the timing has worked out well, because on Wednesday the stock finally
manage to kick higher and break through the stubborn ceiling price of 14c / 15c, doing it on increased
volume and finishing the week at 17c. A check on the two-year chart shows why the Friday close is pleasing
on a technical level, the highest prices for the stock since the salting scandal perpetrated by previous CEO
Quentin Yarie that dumped the stock and
caused no end of reputation damage. The next
day, October 9th, RPX doubled down on the
good will with this NR (21) entitled “Red Pine
Commences Surface Trenching and Sampling
Programme in Potential Open Pit Areas at Wawa
Gold Project” and while trenching isn’t normally
the sexiest or most market moving of
development strategies, it makes plenty of
sense for a company that is looking to gather
data for its open pit starter pits and publish
plans for the new open pit project in 2026 in a
PEA. Please note, trenching results are as valid
as drill results for a PEA and can add significant
inferred resources, all at a relatively low cost.
Meanwhile, RPX last week also filed its annual financial report and MD&A (its financial year-end is July 31st)
and the numbers came in fairly close to our expectations.
RPX.v: Assets, per qtr
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
On the balance sheet, as RPX doesn't capitalize expenditures the data that matter pertains to cash and
general liquidity. We estimated cash&eq treasury (below left) at C$10m after its recent raise, reality is
23
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO 52.naJ 52.rpA 52.yluJ se52.tcO tse62.naj
$m RPX.v: Liabilities per qtr
3
2.5 fixed
other current 2
cash
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO 52.naJ 52.rpA 52.yluJ se52.tcO tse62.naj
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
C$9.428m. Equally, our guesstimate for working capital was C$8.9m and reality is C$8.05m. In other words,
our estimates were slightly optimistic but close enough for this type of tinycap and what really matters is in
the working capital chart (below right), as RPX is now funded to get through its next stages of development.
On the other hand, it’s not the biggest cash pile in the world and our previous assumption that treasury gets
thin around PDAC 2026 is confirmed by the RPX note:
The Company will be required to seek additional funding prior to the end of the fiscal year ended July 31, 2026 to
extend and/or expand the drilling campaign and project evaluation. Funding requirements also include payments
under its First Nations Agreements. The success of any financing will be dependent on factors such as the drilling
results from the continuing drill program and the prevailing market conditions for junior exploration companies. If
the Company is unsuccessful in obtaining financing, or obtaining financing on acceptable terms, the Company
would be required to cease drilling on the Wawa Project. There can be no assurances that the Company will be
able to find additional financing on terms acceptable to the Company, or at all.
No arguments on that. As for the burn rate, here's the breakdown of main quarterly expenses and our best
guess that unlike 2024, the current quarter (1q26, to end October) will see a modest uptick in activity and
spending.
RPX: Quarterly expenses
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
24
22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO 52.naJ 52.rpA 52.yluJ tse52.tcO
12 RPX.v: Cash treasury per qtr
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
$m
Drilling Other Expl Exp
G&A Payroll/Prof fees
Share Comp
source: company filings
Cumulative spend at Wawa $98.382m as at end July 2025 and will cross the C$100m mark by the end of the
current quarter, with most of that spent since the consolidation of property ownership in early 2021. In other
words, if we assume (as we do) that Wawa is a real live prospect with every chance of becoming a mine,
you're getting a lot for the current market cap of C$63m (370.517m shares X C$0.17) compared to the
knowledge already in the property, particularly in these bullish days for the gold sector and for juniors.
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO 52.naJ 52.rpA 52.yluJ se52.tcO tse62.naj
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
10 RPX.v: Working Capital per qtr
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO 52.naJ 52.rpA 52.yluJ se52.tcO tse62.naj se62.rpa
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
RPX: Wawa cumulative spend, per qtr
104.04 314.14 959.14 296.24 464.34 948.34 30.44
955.65 245.85 742.06 348.26 644.66 572.07 646.27 867.47 534.67 222.97 141.28 629.48 850.98 657.09 778.19 35.39 941.69 283.89
100
90
80
70
60 50 40
30
20
10
0
91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO 52.naJ 52.rpA 52.yluJ
C$m 400 New RPX.v: Shares Out
350
300
250
200 150
100
50
0
source: company filings
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO 52.naJ 52.rpA 52.yluJ se52.tcO tse62.naj se62.rpa
source: company filings
serahs
fo snoillim
Last week's price breakout is most welcome and probably overdue, though I'm not complaining too much
because I managed to get two more bites at the apple before it happened, the last one just days ago.
However, there's plenty more upside potential in this stock at this time. We have in mind that RPX treasury
isn't a bottomless pit and the company will have to raise more working capital by mid-next year, but that's
not likely to stop equity appreciation as Wawa's open pit plan moves through the gears and shows its
economic value. A near-term revaluation to 20c looks set to happen, but there's no reason why RPX cannot
move higher and 25c before 2026 wouldn't surprise me in the least. Or if you want the broadest of brush-
strokes, assume Wawa gets to 2m oz gold contained and value those ounces as they re-rate to U$50/oz, you
get a stock that more than doubles from here. In other words, a very easy stock to hold, I'm happy to have
increased my position in the last few weeks and once the wider world realizes the “serious junior” status of
RPX and its new management team, there’s plenty of logical upside left in the share price.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 3q25 production numbers
Another great week at the market for Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), with the stock price briefly touching
C$3.00 before the sector selling dragged it back a little. It still managed to close at a record weekly close of
C$2.80, representing a 81% profit on our original investment without even factoring in the 15c in dividends
picked up since re-entering the stock. What’s more, that pop to a 3-handle was on the day ARG announced
its 3q25 production numbers (22), which surely means the numbers were good, right?
As noted last weekend in IKN854 on previewing the production report, our previous estimate was 16.5m lbs
copper but we already knew the ARG Q3 would be affected by the production suspension at the El Teniente
(DET) mine, owner of the tailings and direct supplier of fresh tailings to the ARG MVC plant. Here’s how we
framed it last weekend:
“…the El Teniente (DET) seismic event and subsequent production suspension is going to take a bite
out of our previous estimate of 16.5m lbs Cu produced in the quarter by ARG. It’s tough to know
exactly how much production has been lost, but I’m currently expecting something in the range of
1.5mlbs less, perhaps 2m lbs, and best guessing 15m lbs for the quarter.”
It turns out our guesstimate was in the ballpark and ARG announced 3q25 production of 14.55m lbs copper.
Admittedly the low end of the range, but it makes sense and with 15.02m lbs delivered in the quarter the
shortfall isn’t serious. When the seismic event at DET happened we noted that ARG would probably be able
to shift production to get more tonnages from historic tailings, the other place it gets its feed. Indeed that’s
the case and the following CEO quote from Aurora Davidson in last week’s NR underscores that. However,
she also goes on to note that it won’t be a 1-for-1 swap and with El Teniente likely running at a reduced rate
for an extended period of time, 4q25 looks set to be affected as well. Here’s CEO Davidson:
“Utilizing the tremendous flexibility of MVC’s processing plant, our team has done an exceptional job
increasing the processing of historic tailings and adjusting plant performance to minimize the
continued impact from lower fresh tailings throughput. MVC’s production results were heavily
impacted in August, but MVC’s September output was closely aligned with its original monthly
production budget,” said Aurora Davidson, Amerigo’s President and CEO.
“Notwithstanding MVC’s agile response, the August production shortfall will likely prevent Amerigo
from meeting its original annual production guidance of 62.9 million pounds of copper. We currently
expect to produce between 60 and 61.5 million pounds of copper in 2025, which is 2% to 5% lower
than our original guidance. Amerigo’s molybdenum production and cash cost1 guidance remain in
place,” she added.
25
With context in place we now take a closer look at Q3, as well as make initial estimates on what to expect
from the ARG 4q25 as the El Teniente woes continue.
First here (right) the production split and we see how
historic Cauquenes tailings took up the slack and
accounted for 7.77mlbs of the total, the highest
number since 1q21. As for the fresh tailings from DET, the 6.78mlbs is the lowest total on that chart and the
lowest since 3q20. We should expect this production mix biased toward Cauquenes to continue into 4q25,
after that we’ll see. Please note that under normal
circumstances, fresh tailings production has a lower
cash costs but ARG gets more moly from the historic
tailings, helping to offset the extra cost.
This next chart (right) is the copper sales tracking chart and ARG.to: Copper sales
the 15.02m lbs in sales, which doesn’t look out of place
compared to previous quarters but we were originally guided
for more. As for 4q25, if we assume the mid-point of the
ARG adjusted guidance and 61.5m lbs for the year, it puts
Q4 production at 17.45m lbs. That’s only a little under our
previous assumption of 18m lbs and it’s worth mentioning
that if ARG hits the top-end of its new guidance number, it
would imply a 4q25 of 18.2m lbs copper production (please
note the chart right is sales and the numbers change slightly,
though over time it works out the same).
Now it’s time for dollars rather than tonnes and pounds: ARG reported its received price at U$4.54/lb for the
quarter, that’s 12c/lb higher than in Q2 and means it can put a positive adjustment on its top line revenues
due to the deferred invoicing system for payments (that we’ve discussed in previous editions). So, gross
copper value comes to an estimated U$68.2m…
…then post-adjustment, copper revenues come to an estimated U$69.8m. This chart also features the “Revs
total” number of U$52.1m, that’s the number at the top of the P+L (more on that below):
26
11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 68.41 81.61 97.61 94.61 966.31 779.01 80.61 169.51 33.41 84.61 42.81 29.21 75.51 20.51 54.71
20
18
16
14
12
10 8
6
4
2
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 tse52q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
ARG: Average Cu price for MVC
(NB: Cut-down y-axis)
80.4 44.4 32.4 23.4 46.4 01.4
05.3
08.3 20.4
08.3
67.3 28.3 79.3 93.4 22.4 60.4 24.4 24.4
45.4 4.75
4.5
4.25
4 3.75 3.5
3.25
3
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
U$/lb Cu ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
source: Company data/IKN ests
1.85 6.66 0.27 6.27 8.37 7.36 8.65 1.16 8.66 8.25 6.14 5.95 3.16 0.36 8.86 9.57 0.55 9.66 2.86
80
70
60
50
40 30 20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
ARG: Production breakdown by source, per qtr
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
74.8
30.7
16.7
73.7
73.7
26.8
46.7
62.9
68.6
16.9
97.5
31.9
73.7
36.8
52.6
63.01
83.6
41.01
48.4
97.8
19.2
12.8
86.7
96.8
54.7
55.8
5
89.8
88.4
93.11
45.5
77.21
62.5
79.7
15.6
10.9
77.7
87.6
20
18
16
14 12
10
8 6 4
2
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3
Mlb Cu
Cauquenes tailings
Fresh tailings
source: company filings
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
897.66 271.07 846.25 908.25 882.94
630.23
855.14 51.14
923.03
5.95 591.16
844.24
582.16 8.26 129.44 379.26 448.96
206.15
397.86 1.66
4.54
519.57
63.37
8.05
989.45 919.95
281.44
729.66 676.76
648.05
2.86 8.96
1.25
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
U$m
Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
We get there by subtracting the charges to the copper revenues, then adding back the estimated moly by-
product credit. Below left are the charges, mainly the royalty due to DET that we estimate at U$20.5m in
3q25, as it steps up a bracket due to the higher copper price average. Then below right is our best guess for
moly revenues and as always, we state the clear caveat that it’s a tough one to guess and a lot depends on
shipment timing. If that number comes in substantially lower don’t be surprised, but moly revenues even out
over the quarters.
Here’s the U$52.1m arriving at the top of the P+L, which then gets costs subtracted to reach an estimated
gross profit of U$14.3m, a number that compares well to previous quarters. That’s impressive given the
missing production in the quarter and shows how the leverage to the copper price works at this company
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
27
846.25 874.31
630.23
503.3-
923.03
420.2-
744.24
200.6
129.44 508.7 206.15 394.61 834.54
573.7
218.05 837.31 281.44
96.9
648.05 941.21
1.25
3.41
60
55
50
45
40
35
30 25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
U$m
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
source: company filings
Further to that, some charts on the costs involved at ARG starting with a COGS breakdown:
ARG: COGS breakdown
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
U$m DET Mo royal
admin
DD&A
other
lime
Mo prod cost
tailings extract
grind media
Maintenance
direct labour
power
source: company filings
In its NR last week, ARG announced a competitive cash
cost of U$1.80/lb with the cash total at U$38.697m.
Here above is the USD breakdown but as noted above
there are other costs to swallow with the biggest the
DET royalty. We add smelting costs as #3 to this chart
to show a representative number, but leave out the minor costs for transport etc:
626.51 834.81 799.31 336.01 477.51 86.61 674.81 361.91 450.12 560.61 298.91 5.02
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
Transport ARG: Mo credits
U$m smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
930.8
958.2
85.4 478.3 454.5 993.6 142.5 267.5 765.3 320.7 5.6
9
8
7
6
5
4 3
2
1
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG: Main costs per Lb Cu
09.1
73.1
10.2
32.1
39.1
88.0
01.2
39.0
19.1
21.1
73.2
20.1
44.2
79.0
60.2
89.0
69.1
50.1
69.1
92.1
39.1
61.1
37.1
51.1
22.2
42.1
28.1
82.1
08.1
63.1
4.00
3.50 0.390.39 0.420.41 0.42 0.23
3.00 0.37 0.360.40 0.400.39 0.39 0.37 0.230.22
2.50 2.00
1.50
1.00 0.50
0.00
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
smelt/refine/lb
U$/lb cash cost/lb
DET royalty/lb
source: ARG data, IKN calcs
Put those together, then subtract from the average received price for copper and we have a reasonable
approximation of the margin per pound being run by ARG:
ARG: Estimated margin/Lb Cu
28
62.0 01.0 16.0 16.0 30.0- 44.0 85.0
90.1
38.0
79.0 70.1 40.1 99.0
74.0 23.0 14.0 95.0
10.0-
60.0- 83.0 75.0
27.0 47.0 08.0 37.0
90.1 61.1
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60 0.50
0.40
0.30 0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
U$/lb Cu
source: ARG data, IKN calcs
These are estimates and we’ll find out the truth on Wednesday, October 29th (with the ConfCall set for the
next day, Oct 30th), but it indicates how the rise in copper price offsets the temporary reduction in
production. And so does this chart:
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
44.31
72.3- 72.6-
19.3
84.6
07.51
0.7
2.51
23.8
16.01
08.21 20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
Our U$14.3m in gross profit becomes an estimated U$12.8m in operating profit, which is our preferred
benchmark for ARG (net income gets bent by “things”). We’ll leave most of the balance sheet items for
results day, the only one that matters today is the pre-announced cash position of U$28m as at end 3q25.
That’s close to the level held by ARG when it announced
ARG.to: Cash and ST
the extra 4c (Canadian) “performance dividend” after
2q24, the payment over and above the standard and
regular 3c (Canadian) dividend. That suggests ARG may
decide to pay the extra this time around as well, but we
also note that the company hasn’t made any share
buybacks during 3q25 (shares out 161.491m as at end
Q3) and those normally take preference. Therefore, my
best guess is ARG will look to buy back shares first, then
we get a performance bonus on the back of the quickly
improving copper prices right now in 4q25, plus the
improved production slated for the quarter.
Conclusion: The price move put in by Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) last week is fully justified. Indeed, I was a
little surprised to see it pull back from the 3-handle to
close at C$2.80 as quickly as it did, because even with
the drop in copper production in 3q25 due to the DET
seismic event, the strength in copper prices more than
offsets the dip and with Q4 production expected to
improve, the continued rise of copper means ARG is set
for a bonanza quarter to close 2025. Out final tracking
chart of the day (right) is operating and net EPS and the
one that matters to us, operating EPS, is estimated at
9.34
7.13
1.31 2.61 8.31
7.82 1.52 9.43 7.72 3.32
0.82
50
45
40
35
30
25
20 15
10
5
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
$m
source: company filings
0.14 ARG.to: operating and net earnings per share
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
eps
op profit/share
source: company filings, IKN ests
7.9c for a reduced 3q25. Come Q4 and the better production and copper prices, that could be a lot higher but
even if we base our estimates on Q3, it gives a forward price/operating profit ration of 6.5X. This is not an
expensive stock at C$2.80 and it doesn’t matter what price you bought in at a few months ago, there’s plenty
of room to move higher
Then comes 2026 and we have to assume copper prices remain strong, as the macro backdrop is conducive
and supply woes make headlines as demand continues to increase. On that subject, as at end 2025 ARG is
set to pay off the last of its loan and just that would mean it has an extra 1.2c (Canadian) per share to
distribute to shareholders, so as well as the potential of a bonus dividend payment soon (we suppose end
4q25, it might happen earlier) there’s reason to expect the regular dividend to move to 4c/quarter, which
would be a 6% yield at today’s share price. This dividend yield table (adjusted into Canadian Dollars) shows
what we might expect from a stock that starts to churn out higher dividends on the back of the copper price
surge. Currently and strictly speaking, its 3c per quarter and C$2.80 share price points us to a dividend yield
of 4%, which isn’t bad but not exactly world-leading. However, all it would take is a move to 4c/quarter and a
single performance payment per year of 4c to put the yield at C$2.80 at 7.14% (the yellow highlighted box).
If ARG starts to pay more performance bonuses in 2026, or buys back shares, or both, that can easily move
to the 25c/year column and near-9% yield, or 8.33% if we assume a C$3.00 share price.
Amerigo (ARG.to): Dividend Yield Percentage Spread Table
Share Dividend per year (Cad Dollar Cents)
price CAD$ 12 15 20 25 30 35
1.80 6.67 8.33 11.11 13.89 16.67 19.44
2.00 6.00 7.50 10.00 12.50 15.00 17.50
2.20 5.45 6.82 9.09 11.36 13.64 15.91
2.40 5.00 6.25 8.33 10.42 12.50 14.58
2.60 4.62 5.77 7.69 9.62 11.54 13.46
2.80 4.29 5.36 7.14 8.93 10.71 12.50
3.00 4.00 5.00 6.67 8.33 10.00 11.67
3.20 3.75 4.69 6.25 7.81 9.38 10.94
3.40 3.53 4.41 5.88 7.35 8.82 10.29
source: ARG data, IKN estimates
Clearly there’s room for equity price improvement under such circumstances and in 2026, all ARG needs to
perform as a share price is to continue doing its regular thing and enjoy the extra top line revenues that
come from these high copper prices.
Bottom line: I wish they were all this easy. Own some.
Conclusion
IKN855 is done, we end bullet points:
Nice to close the issue on an upbeat note with that on Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). Metals prices are
capturing all the headlines and driving the stock price run, but I’ll always tip my hat to good
operators doing all the right things and delivering for shareholders.
The Rio2 Ltd (RIO.to) stock price has done exceptionally well this year and is an obvious beneficiary
of the gold price run but don’t be misled, there’s still a lot more to come from this company as it re-
rates into production. Next year will make headlines as the mine comes online and moves into
commercial production, but the real value only shows as the company matures.
I’ve read plenty of blithe assumptions about Argentina recently, that Everything Gonna Be All Right
and that the country wouldn’t be so stupid as to turn its back on Milei and his reforms. I certainly
hope he wins through, but a closer look at the way this vitally important mid-term election is
developing shows that it’s a tight race and anything could happen. If mining companies are holding
fire until they know the result, you should as well.
But above all, keep dancing until the music stops. These final lines are going in Monday evening and
not only have we seen gold break U$4,000/oz, but it’s blasted straight on and through U$4,100/oz as
well. There’s a growing crowd of people calling a near-term top and I completely understand that,
29
one of the classic signals we didn’t include in today’s intro is the parabolic blow-off top pattern and
that could be forming now. But it might not be, there could be more or even a lot more to come.
Either way, our “Keep Dancing” strategy is about remaining long and being willing to take the hit
when it happens. Not if, but when.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if
required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/cpi-inflation-data-government-shutdown.html
(2) https://www.rio2.com/post/royal-road-and-rio2-announce-share-acquisition-by-rio2
(3) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-desalinated-water-update-for-expansion-of-the-fenix-gold-mine
(4) https://orecap.ca/news/orecap-consolidates-ownership-at-mcgarry-project/
(5) https://westredlakegold.com/west-red-lake-gold-reports-third-quarter-operations-update-for-madsen-mine-ramp-up/
(6) https://westredlakegold.com/west-red-lake-gold-hits-new-high-grade-gold-lens-in-lower-main-austin-with-139-45-g-t-au-over-7-8m-74-
70-g-t-au-over-8-7m-and-18-31-g-t-au-over-7-5m/
(7) https://www.reporteminero.cl/noticia/noticias/2025/10/anglogold-ashanti-iniciara-un-programa-de-perforacion-en-organullo
(8) https://www.livemint.com/market/commodities/copper-hits-11-000-a-ton-as-investors-bet-on-shortages-11760027062672.html
(9) https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L5N3VR0HA:0-copper-falls-as-trump-s-comment-on-china-sparks-
trade-war-fears/
(10) https://www.reuters.com/business/slower-production-growth-will-push-copper-market-deficit-2026-says-icsg-2025-10-08/
(11) https://icsg.org/press-releases/#
(12) https://www.sandstormgold.com/sandstorm-gold-royalties-shareholders-approve-proposed-plan-of-arrangement-with-royal-gold/
(13) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-announces-sale-of-interest-in-tongon-for-up-to-305-
million/default.aspx
(14) https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-inside-the-power-struggle-at-barrick-that-led-to-the-ouster-of-ceo/
(15) https://lpderecho.pe/si-vacan-dina-boluarte-adelantar-elecciones-presidenciales/
(16)
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Encuestas_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_legislativas_de_Argentina_de_2025
(17) https://www.letrap.com.ar/economia/a-pesar-del-rigi-las-mineras-condicionan-inversiones-que-javier-milei-le-vaya-bien-las-
elecciones-n5419390
(18) https://www.clarin.com/economia/mineria-reclama-cambios-ley-glaciares-retenciones-cero-seguir-creciendo_0_Rv2E0UojtG.html
(19) https://prensa.ciudaddemendoza.gob.ar/2025/10/10/la-ciudad-se-prepara-para-recibir-a-argentina-mining-el-evento-premium-de-la-
(20)
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Sondeos_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_la_elecci%C3%B3n_presidencial_de_Chile_de_2025
(21) https://chile.as.com/actualidad/nueva-encuesta-presidencial-aclara-panorama-de-las-elecciones-en-chile-renida-lucha-por-el-primer-
lugar-n/
(22) https://chile.as.com/actualidad/nueva-encuesta-presidencial-aclara-panorama-de-las-elecciones-en-chile-renida-lucha-por-el-primer-
lugar-n/
(23) https://redpineexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Red-Pine-Surface-Trenching-Starts-October-2025.pdf
(24) https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20251008.pdf
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
32
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
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Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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