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The IKN Weekly
Week 854, October 5th 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Trade the speculative positions but hold the core
investments, Thus you will recognize them by their fruits, Thank you for your patience (a personal note).
Fundamental Analysis: A junior mining trade strategy for this rampant bull market, Adding Red Pine
Exploration (RPX.v), Buying Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to).
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Surge Copper (SURG.v), Aurion Resources (AU.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v),
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), West Red Lake Gold
(WRLG.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Latin Metals (LMS.v), Gold Royalty Corp (GROY).
The Copper Basket: Quarter-end review, Kobrea (KBX.cse).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Quarter-end review, Barrick (B) (ABX.to) and Newmont (NEM), B2Gold
(BTG) (BTO.to), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Mogotes Metals (MOG.v), Electrum Discovery (ELY.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: The problem is the cheap fuel…again, Ecuador: Loma Larga EIA revoked, “The
Venezuela Question”, Bolivia: A tight run-off, Argentina: Milei has a real battle on his hands.
Market Watching: Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) runs, Atico Mining (ATY.v) is a reminder they don’t keep
going up forever.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I plan on two purchases this coming week:
 A purchase of Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to)
 An addition to the established position in Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v)
The reasoning for both is set out in today’s main Fundamental Analysis section, along with the trade strategy
that connects them.
In today’s edition
 It was a difficult week, but it’s good to have finally published IKN854, even though it’s less than
perfect and lacking some of its planned content.
 The main fundies section today sketches out why I’m continuing to buy Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v),
as the new dynamic of this continued bull market is now standing the normal rules on their heads.
One’s portfolio laggards are not to be sold these days, nor even ignored, these are the stocks to
double down on.
 The main fundies section also opens on a new stock idea, Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to) and for much
the same idea. The length of this bull market for mining stocks and the way it’s now attracting new
money (at long last) means that hated stocks and laggard stories will find new sponsors witout the
same prejudices and are bound to make catch}-up moves. Our task is to get on first and ride these
elevators up.
 Other things as well, but before anything else happens I owe you all a few words of thanks.
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Thank you for your patience (a personal note)
At last, IKN854. As most of you know (via TwitterX, or via WhatsApp, or via mails, or via replies to your
“Mark did you publish?” mail if I didn’t mail you…sorry about that), my 3½ year old and my 1½ year old
were diagnosed with pneumonia last Sunday morning, with both hospitalized last week. The youngest had
the lesser case and was interned for four nights, the eldest was
in worse shape and I’m not going to go into a blow-by-blow of
what we went through, but will say we’re extremely grateful to
have taken him in on Sunday morning, rather than Sunday
evening or Monday. No matter, I’m glad to report he was
discharged yesterday Saturday after making a quicker than
expected recovery, the family is back together at home and
while mama and papa are tired, we’re all in excellent spirits.
The patience shown by you, esteemed reader of The IKN
Weekly, is greatly appreciated and I offer sincere thanks. Also in
hindsight, starting IKN853 two weeks ago with the brief intro
note “You do not need a paid subscription service to make money in junior mining” was uncanny in its timing
and proven over the last two weeks of bullish metals and mining sector price action.
Trade the speculative positions but hold the core investments
The last few days have seen a rise of a new sentiment in which market soothsayers and mining sector
experts are taking profits on trades (or at least they say they are). That’s fair enough and you won’t hear this
desk criticize a profitable trade in this most difficult and volatile of sectors.
I’m not planning on joining them, not with the main holdings anyway.
Trade strategy is important and, at the start of any given investment, it pays to be clear about objectives for
the trade and a near-term spec or proposed quick flip trade isn’t the same as the core or conviction
investment. If you enter a trade looking to make a quick difference and it does just that, there’s no weeping
later if the stock continues to run higher and higher. For example, late last year I bought some Arizona
Sonoran (ASCU.to) at C$1.39 and sold them a few weeks later at C$1.68. That was and is a good trade in my
book, no matter that ASCU has made it to C$3 recently. It was a specific trade for a specific time period, it
worked, the end.
While spec trades tend to be more fun the real money is made in the long-term conviction holds and while
you have yours, Rio2, Amerigo are typical real world examples in my personal portfolio today. And yes,
Minera Alamos as well because even with its recent trim, it’s a double-plus trade personally and I’m not
holding the shares I have left just for fun. These are the trades that can make life-changing money, for what
it’s worth they make up the clear majority of my personal holdings and no matter how tempting October
2025 may be for trimming and selling purposes, they’re not getting any smaller in my port because “Keep
Dancing Until the Music Stops” has kept me out of trouble all year. Once again, your author refers you to that
excerpt in IKN849:
“One of the basic principles of “Keep Dancing Until The Music Stops”, aside from doing exactly that
and making sure we’re fully long metals/miners, is how it lets us ignore all the macroeconomic
machinations and geopolitical fun and games. We keep dancing and ride the bull market. One day
the music will stop because it always does and on that day I will lose money compared to the day
before, because this endgame clearly implies that we cannot and will not sell at the top of the
market.”
I’m 100% aware that I’m not going to sell my major holdings at their price tops. However, it also means I’m
not making any partial sales of Marimaca Copper at C$9.15 (+200%) because the music can keep playing
loudly until C$18.30 shows up, so if the music stops and I end up selling at $15 it will have to do. The beauty
of “Keep Dancing…” is that it’s one less thing to worry about, no need to get cute with yourself (and others),
no soothsaying the metals market, no guesses on how or when a blow-off top forms, or how a cease fire in
Ukraine, Palestine or Portland might affect the world flow of dollars and therefore gold…and silver…and
lithium. We could continue, but the basic issue is that even a partial sale of a big winner today means you’re
having to get two predictions right (when to sell, when to put that money back in the market) compared to
the “Keep Dancing…” philosophy.
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Bottom line: I have no issue with those looking to trim positions and take partial or complete profits in the
days and weeks to come but with the music playing as loudly as it is today, I will continue to hold my main
trades in their entirely and climb the wall of worry. The music hasn’t stopped, neither have I.
Thus you will recognize them by their fruits
“Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing
but inwardly are ravenous wolves. You will recognize them
by their fruits. Are grapes gathered from thornbushes,
or figs thistles? So, every healthy tree bears good
fruit, but the diseased tree bears bad fruit.”
Matthew 7: 15-20 (ESV)
It’s not the capital raised, it’s what they do with it from here that matters. I’m sure the number of mining
companies now padding treasuries via a raft of capital raises, private placements, brokered placements,
bought deals and suchlike has not escaped your attention. Large or small, exploration-stage or operating, the
wider world of generalist investments has suddenly decided they want to fund mining companies and the
response from C-suites of the companies we’ve learned to know and lo…learned to know over the years has
been predictable.
“Please step this way, deep pocketed fund manager, allow us to explain why we are so cheaply valued.”
The sheer number of placements has been overwhelming, financial deals of all shapes and sizes hitting the
wires on a daily basis and to illustrate that, even if we ignore normal placements, non-brokered placements,
flow-through deals, bought deals and fix on a sub-sector of placements that are “upsized due to demand”
and cutting the time window to post-Labour Day, a Google search brings five pages of results. Or getting
even more specialist, consider this list:
 Tier One Silver
 IMPACT Silver
 Silver X
 Silver Storm
 Argenta Silver
 Silver Dollar
 Regency Silver
 Sierra Madre
 Honey Badger
 Blackrock Silver
 Excellon
 Silver Crown
 Guanajuato Silver
 Apollo Silver
That list of fourteen companies (!!) came by adding “silver” to the keywords “upsized” and “placement”, i.e.
14 silver-focused smallcaps that have recently run and closed not just placements, but upsized placements.
And silver is one of a plethora of metals being funded by the tsunami of outside money looking to get in on
better terms than those offered by the open market. Gold is a given of course, also the classic industrial
fungibles such as copper, zinc, tin, lead and alu. But also PGMs, lithium, tungsten, rare earths, molybdenum,
vanadium, (so help us, even) helium and the list continues, page after page of (let me reiterate) upsized
placements, let’s not add in those that opened and closed fully taken in minutes (e.g. Minera Alamos) without
grabbing for more cash. Long story short, the good times are back for the junior sector and hundreds, nay
thousands of explorecos that spent years on financial life support and scrambling for keep-lights-on cash,
have hit capital markets pay dirt and can swap inordinate numbers of their company shares for hard cash.
And that’s fair enough, the next generation of mines won’t discover themselves and we need a well-funded,
dynamic junior and exploreco sector in order to go out and feed the food chain that results in metal we use
and enjoy.
Which brings us to the point of this opening rant: We know the old Bay/Howe St adage “when they offer you
money, you take it.” We know juniors have been cash starved and this bonanza financing window is akin to
those cartoons of people lost in the desert who chance upon an oasis. The good, the bad and the ugly are
raising capital, the queue of financiers willing to fund the sector gets longer by the week and our heroes in
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exploreco C-suites won’t be shy about their ambitions. Therefore, what matters from this point isn’t whether
the good/bad/ugly fill their treasury, it’s what they do with it afterwards.
Though aimed at retail grunts like me, The IKN Weekly’s readership is a cross section of the investment
community; some are new to the sector, some have experienced a cycle or two and know the full length of
the rollercoaster ride these most volatile of stocks provide, some have been doing this as long as I have (The
IKN Weekly started 16 years ago and my first mining company analysis was 22 years ago, if you care), some
have way more time in the sector and make me look like a greenhorn. All good, but as it’s been so long since
the funding sluices were opened this wide even the most experienced may benefit from a reminder that
sharks in this sector are part of the furniture. For sure there are plenty of good teams doing honest work as
well (if there weren’t I would have walked away years ago), but discerning the difference is an important part
of being a successful trader (or investor, or player, whatever other epithet you prefer). This desk is keenly
aware that the best companies are not always the best performing mining stocks and at times when the bulls
really run hard, the dog end of the sector invariably produces the best percentage gains as companies that
have been written off come back to life under the new metals price decks. However, experience also teaches
the best course for the long-run is to stick with the best companies, or as we pointed out in IKN853:
 In bear markets, The IKN Weekly focuses on risk-adjusted, quality companies with good operations
or high value projects.
 In bull markets, The IKN Weekly focuses on risk-adjusted, quality companies with good operations
or high value projects.
Your author has a list of people with whom he would never do business with in this sector (as well as a more
painful list entitled “would never do business with them again”) and it makes no difference to me whether
those self-entitled mining moguls, genius executives and snake oil promoters are making hay in the current
market. I presume many are busy filling their corporate structures with working capital, resurrecting projects,
promising backers wondrous risk-adjusted returns and making sure their corporate coffers can cover their
salaries and expense account for several years ahead. That’s fine, this is capitalism and it’s going to happen
in our shark-infested waters, our task as third-party retail investors is to be aware of the differences and in
the case of the shady operators, at the very least be aware with whom you’re associating with and proceed
with necessary caution. Three buckets:
 People and teams I trust and with whom I’m happy to align (i.e invest my money and recommend the
stocks to others via The IKN Weekly and invest my own money). It’s a subjective list borne from
personal experience and I make no claim of infallibility, but by the same token my “good guys” list has
stood the test of time.
 Sharks and crooks are untouchable and always will be, no matter where we are on the business cycle
or however much their stock prices might move. Yes you can trade their companies, yes there’s money
to be made in the market, but it’s rarely more than the zero-sum-game of stock price movements
where for every winner, there’s a loser. If you’re looking for wealth creation these are not your people,
unless you’re on sales commission at a luxury car dealership.
 But the most interesting group is where the jury is out, or they’re new to the scene (or new to me.),
these are the ones I observe most closely. It so happens that this rampant bull is coinciding with a
loose “changing of the guard” in the executive echelons of the mining world, with oldies being put out
to grass and replaced by a new generation. Time will tell on these people.
My designated buckets don’t guarantee success or failure, of course; Sharky teams can (and will) hit massive
drill assays, honest and upstanding folk can strike out on their project (it’s exploration-stage mining after all)
but part of our task as investors is to filter, discern, tip the odds in our favour as much as possible. To use a
simplified illustration, a junior that uses its treasury on exploration, evaluation and development rather than
blowing it on bloated salaries, cheque swap dealings, contracts with kickbacks or improbable G&A is more
likely to find rocks that turn into a mine. Watching the financials in a rampant bull market pays dividends and
with explorecos large and small now cashed up and ready to spend, we get to observe the way the cash gets
spent. Those with the bad habits in our weird and wonderful sector are going to waste opportunities and line
their pockets, the same way they did the last time money flowed freely (post-GFC). Others, newer to the
sector and as-yet unblemished, will be swayed to the Dark Side. The former are easier to spot than the latter,
but in both cases the house advice is that once identified, avoid all these people like the veritable plague.
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Associate your cash with good people doing good things at good projects, sponsor the new crop of geologists
and C-suiters who decide to do things the right way and remain (largely) unblemished by peers.
Of course you may disagree with me on all the above, that’s your right as a market player and I claim no
moral high ground. However, it’s only right that you, the reader of The IKN Weekly, understand where this
publication is coming from and particularly at times like the current market when there is serious money
available to be made by participants. Your author has nothing against speculative trades and has no issue
about “buy low sell high good luck all left in” on companies that may or may not eventually bear real fruit,
become real mines and create real wealth. But when push comes to shove, the big bets are always going to
be on the good, solid companies doing the right things in the right way, no matter whether or not they
provide the best returns.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Preamble
This main fundies section hasn’t turned out as envisaged this weekend, as your stupid author thought he’d
have more time on his hands once the hospital stay was done. That hadn’t been the case and over this
weekend, the and as such, today’s purchases don’t get as much explanation or expansion as they require.
However, brief as it may be I wanted to get this edition out the door and for the most straightforward of
reasons: I want to buy. As I cannot do so before clients get the opportunity, I’m therefore running this
abridged version, laying out the trade strategy and the two related planned stock purchases with a view to
making a fuller defence of the plans and its trades next weekend.
I also expected to publish in this weekend’s edition on why Top Pick Rio2 (RIO.to) is going to go higher, no
matter what the gold price does in the weeks and months ahead. That piece is deferred until next week as
well, because what matters today is getting the buy calls out on the two stocks below and sketching the
rationale behind the decisions. Rio2 has been on our books for year and is already up mightily in 2025, the
look at its fundies can wait one more week.
A trade strategy for our ongoing bull market
We are now at the stage in this bull market where money has rotated out of the entry positions and moved
down the food chain. This is normal for any bull run in any sector, but what sets 2025 and mining apart is the
duration and power of the bull run. Instead of topping out, gold has moved into a higher gear in recent
weeks, taking its cue from the macro background and a USA that’s no longer hiding the fact that its plans are
to maintain growth at all costs (a price paid by lower interest rates that stoke higher inflation and a
weakening US Dollar). And as gold leads so the other metals complex follows, be they precious or industrial
metals and instead of relenting, momentum has grown. This makes the current market different from
anything we’ve seen in the last 15 years. The nearest equivalent is the golden age of stock appreciation after
the GFC had done its damage in 2009 and 2010, a time when mining stocks that had been battered down to
pennies on the dollar rebounded for impressive gains and it’s that phenomenon that we are targeting in
today’s edition.
The Good: Under normal circumstances, the analyst will make a careful judgment of a company and arrive at
a balanced decision on whether to buy, hold or sell a stock based on its relative quality. A normal and orderly
market rewards those companies doing the right things with stock price appreciation.
The Bad: Then as a strong bull market develops, we will then see lesser companies and stocks make gains
despite their misgivings and shortcomings. That’s what’s been happening in recent times and stocks
discarded as wastes of time and energy just a few months ago (there’s a long list) have reversed their
fortunes and shot higher. This has happened a couple of times in recent years (2016, then post Covid 2020),
though the current market is surely the strongest for these lesser mining stocks.
The Ugly: With the bad stocks now moving, our thoughts turn to the next stage in a long-term bull market
when stocks don’t move up despite being inferior, instead they move up because they are inferior. This third
wave of stock gains are the ones with even more imperfect stories but, as prices rise across the board, the
market looks back and considers the true laggards with new eyes. Nobody doubts the issues that still may
plague this third wave but instead of making these stocks untouchable, the metals price deck and the lag
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compared to peers combine and creative capitalism starts to find ways to fix the problems and revalue the
stories. This is where we are today and it’s why I’m a buyer of two stocks in the coming week.
Adding Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v)
This is the easiest pick of the two to explain here, as it’s my own little laggard gold stock and one I’ve already
bought and added to twice. There’s no doubt Red Pine has issues and one showed again last week when, on
publishing another upbeat NR (1), the stock was reeled back in from what looked like another likely breakout
by some-or-other market effect. As a holder of the stock and a believer in the new management team’s
ability to (using the phrase again) unlock Wawa, it’s not
the first time I’ve witnessed RPX look as though it was
about to run and get back to its pre-assay scandal price
levels (18c to 20c), only for it to hit a raft of selling
volume.
Long story short, I increasingly suspect Alamos Gold (AGI)
is making a concerted effort to keep the lid on the RPX
share price. This is something that other stocks in this
central Ontario region have seen happen to them before
the region’s main player, AGI moved to snap them up at
deep discounts and while there’s no active proof
McCluskey is behind it all, for one thing this hardball corporate tactic is right up his street and for another,
the pattern fits to a tee. However this time is bound to eventually fail because at some point RPX becomes
too cheap for other capital source to ignore.
At 370.5m shares out and a share price of C$0.13 as at this weekend, RPX runs a market cap of C$48.17m,
or just over U$35m. For that money you get almost 1.7m oz of gold under 43-101 compliance that’s bound to
increase once the new drill results are incorporated into the model, as well as a new mine plan that has
identified enough near-surface grade to build a low capex, cost-effective open pit mining operation instead of
the previously planned full underground mine project. At U$20/oz in a world class jurisdiction for gold mining,
it’s only a matter of time before RPX attracts enough interest to be able to rip its share price away from the
controlling grasp of AGI (or whoever else might be suppressing the equity….but hey it’s AGI) and run higher.
To date my personal investment in RPX has been a disappointment as the stock price has lagged, but this
new landscape for gold stocks makes the answer to the personal issue different than before. At other times,
the McCluskeys of this world could bank on impatient retail getting bored with the lack of upside and seeing
them wlak away, thereby helping the price suppression, but competition for ownership of these cheap gold
ounces changes the equation significantly. Instead of walking away, my best move is to add even more while
the cheap prices continue because as long as the gold price doesn’t collapse (Keep Dancing) it’s only a matter
of time before RPX gets its re-rate and catches up with peers.
Buying Arizona Metals Corp (AMC.to)
Under other market circumstances I wouldn’t look twice at this serially under-performing company but the
current market has stood the world on its head. As such I see obvious value in the beaten-down Arizona
Metals Corp (AMC.to) today and while there are a list of matters to address in order to understand what’s
been going on at the company, the main reason to buy is this:
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The five year price chart shows from where this stock has fallen. Or in relative terms, this 12 month chart
shows how bad AMC has been against its gold (GDX) and copper (COPX) brethren:
It’s a cheap stock, a lot cheaper than it was for sure. At this weekend’s C$0.63 share price and 136.7m
shares out, AMC currently has a market cap of C$86.1m, or just under U$63m. And yes indeed, there are
good reasons for this share price drop and market failure, including some bad corporate decisions and a
recent maiden resource at the company’s flagship Kay project in Arizona (surprise) that failed to live up to
market expectations. But we reiterate; now is not simply the time to buy stocks despite their shortcomings,
it’s the time to buy them because of their shortcomings.
Due to the way it has delivered a series of disappointments, AMC has fallen out of favour with shareholders
and notably some high traffic newsletter promoters that got behind the stock and have been left with egg on
their faces. Adding insult to injury recently was another waver of selling as a major ETF dumped AMC from its
holdings list and disposed of its shares in a wholesale and rather unsubtle manner. That was another market
mechanism that has played against the AMC share price recently, however once you step back and consider
what it offers for its current U$63m market cap the story seems to be basically intact, despite the shareholder
rebellion, directorial shenanigans and open market dump:
 A flagship project, named Kay, with a recently defined 9.28m tonnes of polymetallic VMS mineralization
grading 3.18% copper equivalent (CuEq). VMS deposits tend to be high margin operations from several
payable metals and in the case of Kay, there are five projected payables of copper, gold, zinc, silver
and lead. Interestingly due to the gold price run, Kay would see more revenue from gold than its
headline metal of copper at the current price deck.
 A PEA currently underway that is bound to show a robust mining model. We can take issue with some
of the economic parameters used in the MRE calculation, but the fact remains that Kay would be able
to provide over 12 years of feed from its underground mine to a mill running at 2,000 tonnes per day
and the higher metals prices more than compensate for any cost inflation.
 An expansion project, known as Kay 2, which promises to bt able to add significant tonnages to the
current resource.
 A second string gold project, Sugarloaf, with a historic oxide gold resource of 1.5m oz grading 0.5 g/t
Au and sulphide potential below that rock. AMC has embarked on a definition drilling program at
Sugarloaf with a view to adding value to the project in 2026.
 A healthy cash treasury of over C$25m as at end 2q25.
In a market where all boats are rise on the tide, AMC is a prime example of a stock that is out of favour due
to a range of issues and hasn’t enjoyed the same revaluation as peers, so far at least. However, we’re now at
the point where new eyes scan the sector, on the lookout for value alternatives and they won’t bring the
same hatred or prejudices to the table. AMC is set to rise, not because it’s a good company (it’s been
mediocre on several fronts) but because it’s a bad company that now offers value and the potential to turn
around and I’m a buyer now, with a view to getting in front of the inevitable share price catch-up.
Bottom line: I’m aware of the audacious nature of today’s main fundies section, it’s not the normal style of
The IKN Weekly and the scant reading due to time constraints adds up to little more than an arrogant “I’m
buying this because I said so”. We’ll pad out the details of the trades next week, particularly that of AMC, but
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with the market as buoyant as it is I didn’t want to delay opening the trade even an extra day. The bottom
line is that I’m a buyer of more Red Pine (RPX.v) shares and a first-time buyer of Arizona Metals (AMC.to)
because their share prices are dirt cheap, they are under-appreciated by the current market but with the new
money and eyeballs arriving into the mining space, that lag and under-performance won’t last much longer.
It’s time to get on both before others do.
Stocks to Follow
It’s been two weeks since we last published and in that time, the market has done what it should do in a
“You do not need a paid subscription service to make money in junior mining” period. And that’s good,
because the less you need some random guy like me to help with your investments, the better. However, it’s
our task on these pages to track our covered stocks and in order to get up to speed and cover the two weeks
of our Stocks to Follow list, here’s a table of the covered stocks in the order of presentation:
 The first column shows the tickers of Top Pick Rio2 Ltd at the top, the main recommends, then the
bit-players at the bottom.
 The second column shows the stock prices as at IKN853 two weeks ago.
 The third column shows the closing prices last weekend
 The fourth column shows this weekend’s closing prices
 The final column shows the percentage change between IKN853 and IKN854 this weekend

Catching up with two weeks' worth
of Stocks to Follow list action
change since
Ticker IKN853 last week IKN854 IKN853
RIO.v 1.72 2.03 1.98 15.10%
MAI.v 0.36 0.435 0.43 19.40%
ARG.to 2.41 2.65 2.76 14.50%
MARI.to 9.59 10.94 11.57 20.60%
GROY 3.67 3.87 3.83 4.40%
WRLG.v 1.02 1.02 0.95 -6.90%
AU.v 1.05 1.13 1.09 3.80%
RPX.v 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00%
SRL.v 0.155 0.155 0.165 6.50%
LMS.v 0.2 0.185 0.26 30.00%
PAU.cse 0.205 0.245 0.26 26.80%
XXIX.v 0.095 0.1 0.12 26.30%
OCI.v 0.08 0.08 0.085 6.30%
mirl 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.00%
PGDC.v 0.14 0.18 0.165 17.90%
MENE.v 0.14 0.16 0.19 35.70%
Of the main list, the under-performers include West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v down 6.9% over the two
weeks), Red Pine Exploration (unchanged over the two weeks, which is why I’m buying more), Then the
newly added Aurion (AU.v…give that one its required time), Gold Royalty (GROY) and arguably Salazar
Resources (SRL.v) have been behind the pack. Aside those, its’ difficult to complain too much about the way
the portfolio has performed recently.
With the recent exit of Surge Copper (SURG.v), the removal of i-80 Gold from the Watch List and the addition
of Aurion Resource Corp (AU.v) to our Stocks to Follow list (see IKN853), the net is 16 open positions which
is four fewer than our self-imposed maximum. In AMC.to, we’ll add one more next week. As stands, twelve
stocks are in the green and four are in the red.
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company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$1.98 147.5% Fenix build and re-rate on
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.43 104.8% $0.70 tgt no longer top pick
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$2.76 79.2% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$11.57 279.3% Quality Cu dev, FS due
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$3.83 173.6% 2nd target U$5 in 2026
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.88 20-Jul-25 C$0.95 8.0% 2 adds, re-rate trade, $1.44tgt
Aurion Res AU.v STR BUY C$1.15 21-Sep-25 C$1.09 -5.2% new trade on WWAD
Red Pine Expl RPX.v ADDING C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.13 18.2% Added more Sep'25
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.165 106.3% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.26 36.8% proj.generator, Organullo spec
Provenance Gold PAU.cse spec buy C$0.15 27-Aug-25 C$0.26 73.3% Idaho gold drill play
XXIX Metal XXIX.v spec buy C$0.095 27-Aug-25 C$0.12 26.3% new trade on copper & land
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.085 41.7% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.165 725.0% Rio Negro gold developer
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.19 -57.8% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
Minera Alamos MAI.v Aug'25 C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% lightened overweight position
Surge Copper SURG.v Sep'25 $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.215 104.8% took profits, good result
Now for a few notes on the featured companies
Surge Copper (SURG.v): POSITION CLOSED. The 24c on Monday dried up, but I still got out for 21.5c
and a double-plus on this trade, so happy with the result. SURG got a boost on Friday along with a lot of
other stocks and closed up 3c on the week at 24.5c, which means the stock rose by 14% on the week and
people who bought my shares are already in the winning column. Which is fine by me, best of fortune to
SURG in the future and all who sail in her and be clear, given the right circumstances I’d re-buy here no
matter whether the price were higher or lower than
today. We trade, it’s capitalism.
Aurion Resources (AU.v): POSITION OPENED. It
so happens the capital raised by the SURG sale was put
to good use immediately, though this purchase was
substantially larger and took some of the portfolio’s dry
powder as well. I probably paid too much, as well:
9

So much for my dreams of getting in at C$1.05, the stock popped hard on Tuesday morning, peaked at
C$1.18 and didn’t trade lower than C$1.11 all week, so I bit the bullet and paid the price. Sure enough and
as feared, this non-promo stock with a tight ownership roster quickly faded from the market zeitgeist and
traded dropped to a trickle by the end of that week, going in the opposite direction of the sub-sector on that
hyped-up Friday. I have width to add some more and probably will do if AU.v drops back to the Loonie line.
Finally, thanks are due to those subscribers who pointed out my repeated typo the IKN853 main note on
Aurion, as some of the time I got the ticker right but other times it became “AE.v”. That’s silly, that’s
American Eagle and for the record, AE.v has to do a lot more than it has so far in 2025 before I’d consider
exposing myself to it any further than its corner of OCI. On that subject…
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): The Ore Group “Hub” stock added 0.8c to its liquid-ish assets value last week (+0.9c
since IKN853) thanks to gains in most of its main holdings:
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
ticker shares owned(m) PPS valueC$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.58 6.83 2.8
ARIC.v 7.39 0.62 4.58 1.8
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.42 1.75 0.7
XXIX.v 22.992 0.12 2.76 1.1
KTR.v 42.75 0.08 3.42 1.4
MERG.v 5.125 0.03 0.15 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.05 1.24 0.5
subtotal 20.73 8.4
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 20.76 8.4c
At 247.714 S/O
A notable move in Kintavar (about to get its name change to “Auriginal”) and a pulse finally showing in one
of Ore Group’s mainstay companies XXIX made most of the difference and with authority approval for its
plans to spin out its early stage land holdings into newco, including the McGarry land package next to Pierre
Lassonde’s Gold Candle, there’s a lot of intrinsic value in OCI these days. In a market that can see these
smallfry stocks move up quickly, OCI represents a great way of covering several bases in one fell swoop and
as long as the gold bull market keeps rolling out, downside looks very limited.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Thinking of selling. The latest NR from PAU (2) dated September 25th
wasn’t a drill result, instead the company announced it had added a second drill to the project, an diamond
drill rig that is set to test an area previously drilled with RC.
We also learned that the “…Company expects to release
further results from its ongoing RC drill program imminently”,
specifically hole 26 from the zone where they now want to use
a diamond drill. Interesting in itself and with nearly two weeks
on the clock since the NR, that next assay could drop at any
moment.
In trading, PAU continues to perform very well and now brings
up the question on whether I’d take a quick profit. The answer
today is “Not yet”, but this chart shows what looks like a mini
breakout and the recent trades above the 25c line for the first
time since February. Assuming PAU makes it to the 30c line, I
may well scalp the quick double.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Since IKN853, we’ve seen insider sales filed by CEO Hayden Locke and
amore recent rebound back to the best C$11+ prices so a couple of angles to report on. First up, seeing a
CEO sell is never a great optic so the week before last I shot him a mail to find out why. He replied that the
sale was done reluctantly, was for tax purposes and for specific and understandable personal reasons that he
explained in some detail, but it’s not for me to tell tales so if you care enough, shoot him a mail as well. What
10

I will say is that CEO Locke was very transparent in his reply, clearly thinks there’s more upside in the stock
price and expects “…big things from Pampa Medina” (and don’t mind quoting his words there).
In trading, once CEO Locke was done the stock decided it had spent enough time under the C$10 line and
did very nicely, moving up and hitting a new ATH of C$11.77 on Thursday before settling at a highly
respectable C$11.57 finish with the promise of more to come. In this hype market and with copper
threatening to the upside again, it would only take one more NR with positive Pampa Medina results to see
C$12 beaten and a real blue sky breakout move.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): For no particular reason other than the fact it’s cheap, “New Minera Alamos”
finally woke up from its pivot-induced slumber when, two Wednesdays ago someone, somewhere, suddenly
deiced that they had to own the stock. What’s more, the buying came early that day and nearly a million
shares changed hands at between 39c and 40c pre-market, with buyers accumulating all day and since then
the action has been constructive, as seen in this two
month chart (which also captures the pivot news moment
on the right of the visual).
Then last week and right on time October 1st, MAI
announced the due closure of the Pan (and other assets)
purchase deal, which means there are no more excuses
left for the company. It also means they’re free to get out
there and promote and market New Minera Alamos to the
world.
It’s good to see MAI tick the boxes on its pivot plan and
no complaints about new buyers show up, either. There’s
also the planned 10-for-1 share consolidation and once that’s done, we’re left with MAI ready to impress us
with its Q4 and then into 2026, but until then, I’m not planning to re-add the partial sale shares (and for
what it’s worth, the cash raised has found good homes in recent purchases. We recognize the major
downside of this pivot is the share dilution, then again we also recognize the owners of many of those new
shares are the type of large-scale insto that knows how to extract equity value from their holdings and with
the ice now broken, I’d expect MAI will be able to float toward the warrant strike price easily enough. We
have that rollback to take into consideration (be it purely cosmetic or not), but the last week-and-a-bit was
the first sign of life in New MAI and very welcome it is, too.
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): Am I worried about the weak trading in WRLG recently? A little yes, but
until we have Q3 production news I’m okay about waiting and watching. First up, we note the successful
closing of the upsized bought deal (3) with overallotment fully taken and the C$40.6m gross proceeds as
envisaged in IKN853.
Now for the weak trading since then: My trade thesis is laid out and straightforward in nature, we have a
near-term price target (C$1.44) and a plan that minimizes the negative effects of any production lag at
Madsen. We look to take advantage of the re-rate into commercial production, rather than hang around into
2026 to find out whether the company can supply tonnage to the mill at the required steady state. WRLG
didn’t give us a August month production update, that means it’s going to start playing like a real miner and
offer quarterly updates, we may get that very early from the company (it’s still pre-commercial) and that
means this coming week may see a production NR from WRLG. The market seems to suggest its Q3 will
disappoint, but that may be a little two-dimensional in its outlook as what really matters is the timeline to
commercial production. When the production NR shows, the market will care a lot more about what WRLG
expects in Q4 than what happened pre-commercial in Q3 (especially as it now has all the money it needs to
finish its ramp up).
One final thought: There are well-sourced rumours that Frank Giustra is looking to take over and refi the
failed Ascot Resources (AOT), trying to emulate the same type of turnaround story as here with WRLG and
Madsen. We are not privy to all the details, but understand that the refi is slated at $120m and as that’s a big
slug of cash, it’s possible that AOT gets incorporated into the WRLG structure by Giustra rather than going it
alone. This may or may not be the source of recent WRLG price weakness, but it’s certainly not intel on which
11

to second guess trades. We await the Q3 production number and if near-term guidance is positive, we should
see WRLG play catch-up (which for me would be something around C$1.15 to C$1.20).
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): With the 3c divi land in my portfolio account, it’s doubly pleasant to see
ARG rally in the way it has recently last week. It seems to be one of the beneficiaries of the Grasberg news
(see The Copper Basket, below), it also helps that these days, ARG has the “Big Short” people on board to
tell its strong story; a smallcap with a robust and
simple business model, good financials and that divi
to boot. The recent rally is most welcome, goes a
long way in justifying our initial valuation of the
stock.
As for Q3 production, ARG is normally quick with its
quarterly production NR so we keep eyes peeled this
week and offer a quick reminder that the El
Teniente (DET) seismic event and subsequent
production suspension is going to take a bite out of
our previous estimate of 16.5m lbs Cu produced in
the quarter by ARG. It’s tough to know exactly how
much production has been lost, but I’m currently
expecting something in the range of 1.5mlbs less, perhaps 2m lbs, and bets guessing 15m lbs for the quarter.
As for “performance bonus”, that was probable until the DET event and while still possible, I suspect we’ll
have to wait until the Q4 financials for the next one. Still, it’s tough to complain about the way ARG is
repaying our investment to date and the long-term share price also reflects the before/after moment when
the stock was reco’d by the Biog Short people (i.e. Danny Moses podcast (4), or see IKN841 for more
details).
Latin Metals (LMS.v): An example of the “play catch-up” trade strategy we’re using on AMC and RPX (see
today’s main fundies section), until just a couple of days ago LMS continued to fiddle around a 18c to 21c
range on low volumes, one of the tinycaps undiscovered by a story hungry market. The fact that is closed the
week at the bottom of the range is slightly annoying (for people like me who aren’t buying any more for the
time being), but the important thing is that it continues to hold in this range and obviously has a hard floor
price. I don’t mind being patient with these small positions, they don’t move up in a smooth line and they do
eventually match the market median.
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): GROY to trumpeted its 2.0% NSR on the Aura Minerals (AUGO) Borborema
mine as AUGO announced its new mine had reached commercial production, with 80% of nameplate hit.
Once running at full capacity the mine is expected to
produce a little over 20,000 oz per quarter for the next
three years and a 2% NSR on that at current prices makes
for good money. We got a “we now have 250 royalty
assets” NR from the company, but it was less a market
mover and more a self-congratulation (the C-suite and its
foibles are still the riskiest part to this story, we sincerely
hope Garofalo keeps his hands away from the controls as
he promised to do at the start of the year).
After its quick run up between May and August (we got it
all), GROY has been off the boil for a few weeks and
consolidating. We may be about to get its next catalyst
moment when the company gives us its Q3 production/sales NR and guides into the end of the year. With
good news from Aura, Adriatic/DPM and the excitement growing around Ren (NGM), it has plenty left to offer
and the consolidation we’ve seen in the madcap royalty/streamer space has left it as one of the very few low
hanging fruits left for potential buyers.
12

The Copper Basket
After forty weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 49.13% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 454.37 15.14 118.8%
2 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 279.21 753.87 2.70 88.8%
3 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 174.6 520.31 2.98 102.7%
4 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 474.25 2.89 75.2%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 441.78 2.60 36.8%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.516 339.10 1.65 123.0%
7 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 302.92 2.43 18.5%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 289.289 222.75 0.77 40.0%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 175.07 166.32 0.95 95.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 173.377 100.56 0.58 -15.9%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 136.924 93.11 0.68 7.9%
12 Andina Copper ANDC.cse 0.16 211.085 80.21 0.38 137.5%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 306.308 36.76 0.12 9.1%
14 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 117.73 29.43 0.25 -20.6%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.622 15.67 0.44 -26.7%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg 49.13%
We registered the week 39 closing prices in back office
The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
(can supply if you’re nerdy enough), but with the lapse 60%
in service last week they’re not going to make a public 50%
airing as we jump from the close of 2025’s financial 40%
week 38 to week 40. Since September 21st, the Copper 30%
20%
Basket win streak is up to nine weeks in a row and
10%
what’s more, we saw the gains accelerated and the
0%
average jumped by nearly eight percentage points -10%
during week 38-39 and another 6% last week, 39-40, -20%
giving us our clear new 2025 high. Copper has been
unstoppable since we last spoke and that’s a good thing.
On the week, there were ten winners (ATX.v, ALDE.v, TMQ.to, REG.v, AE.v, HCH.v, ECU.v, XXIX.v, CGNT.v)
and five losers SOLG.l, ASCU.to, FDY.to, BIG.v, KBX.cse), but in our case the more important difference is
between the numbers of IKN853 two weeks ago and those this weekend, so this table shows what’s what:
over last 2
Ticker last week weeks
ATX.v up 9.8% up 12.5%
SOLG.l down 1.6% down 7.6%
ALDE.v up 4.8% up 9.2%
TMQ.to up 1.4% up 1.8%
REG.v up 4.7% up 4.3%
ASCU.to down 1.3% up 15.5%
FDY.to down 1.8% up 15.4%
BIG.v down 11.5% down 3.8%
AE.v up 9.4% up 1.8%
HCH.v up 5.6% up 20.3%
ECU.v up 9.7% up 11.5%
XXIX.v up 20.0% up 26.3%
KBX.cse down 15.4% down 22.8%
CGNT.v up 4.2% up 31.6%
ANDC.cse up 13.4% up 31.0%
13
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco
source: IKN calcs

As for the big moves, all bar Kobrea (KBX.cse) were in the positive direction and the percentage gains were
led by the smaller caps such as Copper Giant (CGNT.v up 31.6% over two weeks) Andina (ANDC.cse up
31.0%) and XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v up 26.3%). There were decent gains in the larger caps as well, but the
notable beta of smallcaps and inferior stories suggest an overheating sub-sector.
Copper the metal powered the move on the back of the supply crimp news out of Grasberg (and a couple of
other minor stories, such as the protest and block at HudBay’s Constancia mine). However, from the size of
the reaction to that chart (the December Comex contract) and the news it created, no doubts that Grasberg
is the big reason. The company had already informed the market of its issues, but the extent of the damage
to its underground block caving operation hadn’t been fully understood until this NR last week (5). Here’s an
excerpt:
The GBC ore body represents 50% of PTFI’s estimated proven and probable reserves as of December 31, 2024,
and approximately 70% of PTFI’s previously forecast copper and gold production through 2029. The incident
occurred in “PB1C”, one of five production blocks in the GBC but resulted in damage to infrastructure required to
support other production areas in the GBC.
PTFI is evaluating the impact of the incident on future production plans. Production forecasts will be revised to
incorporate scheduling of required repairs and a phased restart and ramp-up of production.
Sufficient information is not currently available to forecast future production estimates. Preliminary assessments
indicate that the impacts are likely to result in the deferral of significant production in the near-term (fourth quarter
of 2025 and the year 2026) as repairs are completed and a phased restart and ramp-up of operations
commences. A return to pre-incident operating rates could potentially be achieved in 2027.
Long story short: Contrary to previous assumptions, theGrasberg mud rush hadn’t stopped in the one block
cave zone but has affected all three of its operating areas and here’s how Reuters reported the reaction (6)
from Vampire Squid:
Sept 25 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs lowered on Thursday its global copper mine supply forecast for 2025 and
2026 following a disruption at Indonesia's Grasberg, the world's second-largest copper mine.
The incident, which occurred on September 8, trapped workers underground due to heavy mud flow, prompting
operator Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N) to declare force majeure.
The bank estimates there will be a total loss of 525,000 metric tons of copper mine supply as a result of the
disruption, reducing its global mine supply forecast for the second half of 2025 by 160,000 tons and its 2026
forecast by 200,000 tons.
Grasberg's production is now expected to fall by 250,000 to 260,000 tons in 2025 and by 270,000 tons in 2026.
Within a spit and a jump, 260kmt represents around 1% of annual world copper production and in theory, is
enough to tip the market from its slight surplus into clear deficit. However, as there’s still question marks
hanging over Chinese demand as well as the clear surplus stock now hanging around in the USA market
(Trump Tariff bait’n’switch and all that) it’s difficult to ascertain how tight the copper market really is. Overall
I think the market got its first reaction right but then hype took over and the move to above U$5/lb will be
more difficult to sustain in the near-term than the moves in the precious metals. Markets are designed to
overreact and while I’m not a seller of copper on this move, we shouldn’t be surprised to see a re-test below
the U$5 line in the near future. After that, we’ll see.
Now for our regular check on the weekly changes in copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
14

 In the two weeks since IKN853, the world copper stocks aggregate has dropped by 11,764 metric
tonnes (mt) to close the week at 530,298mt.
 Shanghai SHFE inventories are back under the 100kmt line again,m the Friday close at 95,034mt.
 The LME’s copper inventory has dropped by 8,400mt over the two weeks to this weekend’s 140,475.
 Meanwhile, the Comex continues to set all-time records for its stored copper and for the rewaosns
we’ve laid out in previous editions. Copper has Roach Motelled tonnages inside North America and
these levels are now the new normal. By accident, we may see Comex become a price discovery
centre as well. This weekend its stocsk stand at 294,789mt, up 7,416 since the last edition and
now bumping its head on the 300kmt level as The USA scratches its head and wonders what to do
with all this metal.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows stocks have backed off from their sudden and unexpected surge in Asia.
With the Grasberg news sinking in and Chinese end users expected to come back to market and re-stock now
the last annual holiday season is behind us, it will be telling if SHFE can maintain at current levels. I, and
many other copper bulls, believe we’re going to see stocks draw down between now and Christmas.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a few of our 2025 basket component stocks, which this week isn’t much more than a look
at the end Q3 snapshot chart:
The 2025 Copper Basket after 39 weeks
%2.341
%5.221 %4.901 %2.801
%4.97 %6.77
%3.74 %7.43
%9.32
%7.11 %3.6 %1.9- %9.51- %7.61- %6.02-
160%
140%
120%
100% 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
ot.YDF l.GLOS esc.CDNA ot.UCSA ot.QMT v.XTA v.GIB v.EDLA v.HCH v.GER v.UCE v.XIXX v.EA esc.XBK v.TNGC
13 wks
26 wks
39 wks
source: TSX, CSE, IKN calcs
All stocks bar one had a positive Q3 and even the only loser, XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v), has found new
momentum in the first days of Q4 and added to its score since the September 30th cut-off date used for our
chart. There have been some seriously big winners this quarter, the best gains from Faraday Copper
(FDY.to), SolGold (SOLG.l) and the newly re-named Andina (ANDC.cse). Along with FDY, its near-neighbour
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) also bust through the double-in-2025 barrier.
Kobrea Exploration Corp (KBX.cse): KBX’s placement closed successfully and when it did, the articifially
high share price dumped back to this more reasonable level. I’m interested in this stock and while I’d prefer it
cheaper, it’s certainly on my speculative stocks shopping list now. Meanwhile and in the same way as for
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v) in the tiny Caps List below, I’m going to make a decision on whether to add KBX
to the Stocks to Follow Watch List this coming week, once the mental rush is over and I have time to think
about smaller stocks and trades.

The Producer Basket
After 40 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 121.70% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1108 96.24 86.86 133.4%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 502.579 85.15 169.42 116.6%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1705.994 57.92 33.95 119.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 42.30 220.18 87.2%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1320 6.69 5.07 107.8%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 5.97 29.15 96.0%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 5.81 7.35 196.4%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 11.94 231.127 5.23 31.01 159.7%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 3.72 12.53 124.6%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 2.37 15.83 76.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 121.70%
We’re missing the closing prices for last weekend, but it’s fair to say it’s been another great week for precious
metals producers, thanks to the ongoing rally in gold (GLD proxy up 3.1% since last weekend), the large caps
(GDX proxy +3.2%) and the juniors (GDXJ proxy up 3.7%). However and surprisingly, only nine of our
component stocks are up over the fortnight since IKN853 as Eldorado Gold EGO) has managed to lose 1.9%
since we last published. Not great. However, all other stocks are up over the fortnight, including Barrick and
its Bristow news, with the best improvements since IKN853 from Wesdome (WDOFF up 13.6%), B2Gold (BTG
up 12.9%) and OceanaGold (OGC.to up 12.0%). This table should help perspective, with the central column
showing what happened last week and the right-hand column showing the net difference since we last
published, in IKN853:
over last 2
Ticker last week weeks
NEM up 1.9% up 6.3%
AEM up 3.7% up 5.1%
B down 1.5% up 2.9%
FNV up 1.2% up 2.9%
BTG up 3.1% up 12.9%
EGO up 1.0% down 1.9%
OGC.to up 6.8% up 12.0%
NGD up 7.6% up 10.5%
SAND up 2.1% up 4.5%
WDOFF up 5.1% up 13.6%
Our basket average of +121.7% for 2025 is impressive, however we continue to lag the GDX and its
+127.31% for the year. We have one quarter left to close that gap and maintain our winning ways against
GDX, else feel the shame.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
140% comparative to GDX control
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
The above prices are for the close on Friday October 3rd, so in the same way as the Copper Basket Q3
snapshot above we turn the clock back to Tuesday, September 30th for the exact end to the third quarter of
16
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
8%
ikn 6%
gdx control
4%
2%
0%
source: IKN calcs -2%
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

2025. Here’s the Q3 comparative snapshot chart showing the relative performance of our ten basket stocks
so far this year. Comments below:
The 2025 Producer Basket components after 39 weeks
17
%4.571
%8.841
%5.621 %4.421 %6.511 %4.111 %9.201
%3.49 %6.98
%6.37
200%
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
DGN ot.CGO MEN DNAS MEA B GTB OGE VNF FFODW
13 weeks
26 weeks
39 weeks
source: NYSE, IKN calcs
All ten of our stocks improved during the quarter, though among the ten there are clear winners and losers.
The positives start with New Gold (NGD) was one of the top performers in the quarter and still has a big lead
on the year, OceanaGold (OGC.to) did well and moved into a clear second, then the resurgence in the world’s
#1 precious metals mine by market cap NEM put it into third place.
As for the negatives, the documented issues at Kiena mean Wesdome (WDOFF) continues to lag in a market
that should favour its profile. Eldorado Gold (EGO) has failed to live up to my expectations (and those of the
market), while Sandstorm (SAND) made its big move in Q2 on the news of the Royal Gold (RGLD) takeover,
since then it’s traded in line with the royalty behemoth and as a result, slipped from 2nd to 4th spot on our
comparative list.
All that said, even though all ten of our charges managed to improve in Q3, even though New Gold (NGD)
continues to charge ahead at the front of the pack and even though seven of the ten are now double-plus for
2025, I have no doubts about the best performer in Q3: Barrick added 79.4 percentage points to its 2025
gains during the third quarter, which wasn’t the biggest move of our ten (that was OGC.to), but seeing it
come from the lowly 10th spot at the end of the second quarter (see IKN841) to become a member of the
100%+ club is an impressive recovery. The big difference was its news on Fourmile, delivered to the Denver
Show just a couple of weeks ago, that shot B higher as Q3 came to an end. The performance would have
been even better had the company waited until the first day of Q4 to “retire” (rhymes with “fire”) Mark
Bristow, but dem’s da breaks.
Barrick (B) (ABX.to) and Newmont (NEM): On any other day than September 29th, the news Newmont
(NEM) CEO Tom Palmer was stepping down and the world’s #1 precious metals miner would henceforth be
run by a woman for the first time in its history (a positive step for the industry, as meritocracy rules) would
have been the headline mining story. It took this to usurp NEM from the headline slot (7)
TORONTO – Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B)(TSX:ABX) (“Barrick” or the “Company”) today announced that
the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) has appointed Mark Hill as Group COO and Interim President and
Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately, following the departure of Mark Bristow.
The gossip about the decision “to resign” Bristow has been rife ever since, with wire stories from the likes of
Bloomie and Reuters on the reasons and op-eds from Canadian business pages giving him the
“goodbye/good riddance” treatment. This desk has also picked up hearsay and gossip on his departure and
while some things are less certain than others, we can at least state confidently that Bristow was sacked, it
was done in-person by company Chair John Thornton, one of the main reasons was due to the mess in Mali
(see editions passim), another is an internal power struggle between the “Rangold Boys” and the “Wall St
Suits” in-company, the timing was also its own message as Bristow had been vociferous about wanting to
leave in 2026 and his opponents didn’t want him to enjoy such pleasures. As such, it’s not a big surprise to
see technocrat and Thorton close ally Mark Hill installed as (interim) CEO.
We’re not going to get a feel for any change in direction for post-Bristow Barrick until the next permanent
CEO is appointed, but there’s now a widespread assumption that the long-mooted fusioin with Newmont is
back on the cards and in this current metals price backdrop, there’s more reason than normal to expect it
might happen. There are enough synergies to make it make sense (NGM, Pueblo Viejo), Barrick’s move away
from Canada suits the US-based NEM and its absolute size would propel Newmorrick into the U$100Bn+

market cap bracket, the clear leader in the PM world and a size that rivals the big players such as BHP, Rio
Tinto, Zijin etc.
The news has hit the B share price, with a week-over-week loss in week 39 as the news hit and a subdued
performance last week, as well. Notably NEM didn’t do very well on news of Palmer’s exit (though that
resignation is far more politically acceptable and apparently mutual) as the market priced in the risk of the
big fusion, but last week (week 40) NEM bounced back and did well enough.
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): Up 12.9% since we last spoke. BTG has powered along in the current gold
environment so check the chart below for the reasons behind BTG’s out-performance, they date back to two
Fridays ago when (1) BTG lagged the GDX that day, but
quickly made up the lag (2) and then (3) continued the rally
compared to peers that week before (4) running with the
GDX last week:
That’s the pure market explanation; personally I think that
the scenario laid out in IKN853 two weekends ago has
occurred to other people as well. Unlikely to be the hunter
and just one quarter away from the year that its tired-
looking head honcho Clive Johnson considers a window for
M&A, BTG is high on my list of buyout targets in the next
two quarters, with BMO Florida in late March already on my
mind as the dealmakers’ conference of choice. Or two and a
half if we include PDAC 2026.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): For the record, even
though I gave up on my personal EGO trade at $21.43 and
watched as it’s added 36% since then, I don’t regret selling.
For one thing, the cash raised has gone into performing
trades and I don’t feel much opportunity cost. For another,
EGO has continued to under-perform peers and last week’s -
2.9% showing is all-too typical. This is one I got wrong in
2024 and 2025, the silver lining being that I still managed to
make some money.
The TinyCaps List
After 40 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 47.12% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 10.84 0.08 -52.9%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 22.49 0.15 3.4%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 7.42 0.075 -42.3%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 44.07 0.25 72.4%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 85.7 64.28 0.75 92.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 31.70 0.26 225.0%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 374.759 116.18 0.31 138.5%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 17.75 0.165 94.1%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 11.42 0.165 -70.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 22.56 0.155 10.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 47.12%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
18

 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
In the missing Week 39, TinyCaps List basket average put in 60% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
a somewhat surprising 0.61%, but that was remedied by
50%
the push last week which added almost 14 points and a
40%
clear new 2025 high, as seen in the tracking chart (right).
30%
20%
This table (below) shows there were two week-over-week 10%
losers (BRO.v and EDG.v) and two losers over the two 0%
weeks since IKN853 (BRO.v and KDK.v). However, we’ve -10%
seen plenty big wins from the likes of Condor (CN.v up
30.4% since IKN853), Latin Metals (LMS.v up 30.0%) and
others over the fortnight period and they’ve made the
difference.
over last 2
Ticker last week weeks
BRO.v down 0.5c down 11.1%
CN.v up 3.5% up 30.4%
ELY.v up 7.1% up 15.4%
EDG.v down 3.9% up 6.4%
KDK.v up 1.4% down 7.4%
LMS.v up 40.5% up 30.0%
MOG.v up 3.3% up 3.3%
RDU.v up 13.8% up 6.5%
STS.v up 22.2% up 22.2%
VAU.v up 6.9% up 10.7%
Mogotes Metals (MOG.v): I thought MOG was expensive at 24c at the start of August, here we are two
months later and it’s added another 29% to that price.
Said it before and I’ll say it again, MOG has been promoted very well indeed. Also, I absolutely 100% agree
that if it hits “Vicuña Type” mineralization the sky is the limit, but at this stage I much prefer limited downside
risk and at this market cap, without a single hole drilled into its project yet, there’s plenty of hopium wrapped
up in a 30c stock price. That means a painful drop in store if the first holes don’t deliver.
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): Same message as for Kobrea above in Copper Basket, I’m going to make a
decision on whether to add ELY to the Stocks to Follow Watch List this coming week, once the mental rush is
over and I have time to think about smaller stocks and trades.
19
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7peS ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: The problem is the cheap fuel…again
In the IKN853 Regional Politics note “Ecuador: Protests to ramp up”, we noted that President Daniel Noboa
had “…grasped the same nettle that other Presidents had tried and failed to implement, announcing the end
of government subsidized fuel prices in Ecuador” and sure enough, since then the country has been in full
protest mode with indigenous pressure group CONAIE and its new President, Marlon Vargas, at the forefront.
So far the protests and roadblocks have been targeted at a few specific locations with the Imbabura zone one
of the hotspots for protest activity and President Noboa made a strategic error when he decided to go there
in order to promote his cause, only to have his security team physically shield him from irate protesters and
get him to retreat from the location early. This weekend, CONAIE and other protesting associations have
reiterated their intention to continue with the protest actions until the fuel subsidy is brought back. The main
concern for the Noboa government is if protests grow in strength and organize a “march on Quito”, as the
capital wouldn’t handle disruption for long.
Bottom line: Plenty of headlines and protest photos coming out of Ecuador, but so far at least Noboa’s
government isn’t under serious pressure. However, we need to monitor the wave of protests to see if things
get more widespread with an eventual “move on Quito” being something to take more seriously.
Ecuador: Loma Larga EIA revoked
Also mentioned in “Protests to ramp up”, the controversy around the Loma Larga
gold mine project owned by DPM Metals (DPM.to the new name for Dundee
Precious Metals since they branched into non-precious metals mining after
buying Adriatic) rolled on until this weekend when, on Saturday, the government
announced (8) it had revoked the project’s EIA permit awarded earlier this year,
citing an Azuay regional government technical report on the water table and the
effects of an eventual mine on local and regional water supply as the reason for
the volte face. See right for the published announcement (Spanish language).
We covered this story in some detail earlier this year in several notes, perhaps
the central one was in IKN819 dated January 26th in the note entitled “Ecuador:
Mining company trickery”. Here’s an excerpt by way of reminder:
“In other words Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to), in cahoots with the
national Mining Ministry, tried to hold a false “Prior Consultancy” meeting.
Despite the regulations that require all indigenous locals affected by any civil
works project to be allowed a “free and open” process of information, the
Ministry organized the meeting in a small village far from the project site and
provided no notice of the meeting. They also decided to send 180 police and army personnel to
surround the hall, just in case. It was only by luck that the communities with a vested interest
could react in time, thanks to a separate event they’d organized on the same day and you can bet
dollars to donuts they would not have organized a tree plant if they knew the legally required
meeting for the Loma Larga mine were scheduled (ironically, they were set to plant trees in the
location of the mine project). As a cherry on the cake, the Ecuador Chamber of Mining showed its
own bias by trying to paint the protesters that disrupted the fraudulently arranged meeting as
violent. With 180 officers on deck we would have heard about any arrests for violent behaviour, but
there were no reports.
The triumvirate of deception that is Mining Company, National Government and Chamber of Mining
are not telling you the truth, ladies and gents. That’s a small but pertinent fact to store away the
next time you hear about a bunch of ignorant locals trying to meddle in something they don’t
understand. The fact remains that Loma Larga is a highly polemic and hated project, located at the
20

source of two rivers that provide drinking water for an entire region (not next to it, or in the next
valley). Locals have opposed the project for over two decades and have won several legal battles
during their opposition; they are educated and informed on the project, its pros and contras and in
the last local referendum, over 80% of them voted against its development.”
IKN854 back and it’s fair to say I have no time whatsoever for the deceptive tactics used by DPM and its
cohorts in Ecuador to try and push through its permitting. Last week was a dose of just desserts for the
company while it’s surprising Noboa has revoked the permit, it’s also potentially the move of a national
executive that’s found out about the trickery and done the right thing (or at least I’d like to think so). The
Loma Larga/Quimsacocha project has been vehemently opposed for nigh on two decades. Opponents to the
project are now pressing for the government to annul the concession entirely and that’s highly unlikely to
happen, as it opens the country up to an arbitration tribunal at which DPM would stand a chance. Instead,
we can expect this to cause friction among FDI looking at Ecuador and wondering about jurisdictional security
but in the long-term Loma Larga is likely to be viewed as a separate case. However, it does show the power
of local communities in Ecuador (and South America, for that matter) and how it’s vitally important to have
them on your side if you want to build a mine. It doesn’t have to be 100% support but you do need a
majority, which augurs well for some projects in Ecuador (e.g. SVM at Curimpamba, SolGold at Cascabel) and
badly for others (e.g. Solaris at Warintza, Atico at La Plata). The days of ramming through mining projects
against the will of local inhabitants were 30 or 50 years ago, sadly there are far too many boards of directors
still stuck in that past.
“The Venezuela Question”
Over the last couple of months I’ve had a smattering of conversations, mails, exchanges etc on this subject.
The question mailed in by reader JN this weekend isn’t the first, but it does encapsulate the issue in a couple
of neat lines:
Would you maybe be open to writing a piece on what any US attack in Venezuela would do to the politics in
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico, as well as any other jurisdictions that you deem relevant?
Answer: I would be open to writing a piece if it were a valid option, but it’s not really a subject of great
concern because The USA will not attack Venezuela, it’s that simple. We’ll see the rhetoric continue and may
see a ratcheting up of the media-friendly assaults on narco boats offshore from Venezuela, along with the
ensuing verbal jousting, but a full scale “attack on Meduro” to “Liberate Venezuela” isn’t going to happen.
There is an outside chance that a third party mercenary group goes after Maduro in order to claim the
U$50m bounty on his head but if that happened, The USA would be extremely quick in stating that the action
wasn’t sanctioned by any of its armed forces.
A nation-to-nation move against Venezuela might be exactly what the majority of Venezuelans desire, but it
would also be a political scandal of monumental proportions. More importantly, there’s very little advantage
to the theoretical aggressor (The USA), as even a surgical and precise attack to remove the head of the
Venezuela regime would have to deal with the 25% or so of the country that supports its current
government, a minority perhaps but one with resources at their disposal and an awful lot to lose from a
wholesale regime change. Those people include high ranking military officials and without them, the country
could descend into a quasi civil war chaos that serves nobody. Last year, Maduro once again showed how
difficult it is to dislodge a regime that’s intent on maintaining power and will use every trick in the book to do
so, it’s going to take internal moves to make that change again. The USA isn’t the regional cavalry and won’t
come running, quite right too.
Bolivia: A tight run-off
We have saw the first serious voter intention poll for the second round run-off vote to decide Bolivia’s next
President, scheduled for October 19th (i.e. six weeks from now). The poll (9), conducted for the Unitel TV
channel by one of the most established pollsters in the country, Ipsos Ciesmori, took the views of 2,500
people, has a margin of error of +/-2.2% and gave these headline results:
 Jorge Tuto Quiroga: 47.0%
 Rodrigo Paz Pereira: 39.3%
 "Vote in White": 3.5%
 Spoil ballot: 4.7%
 Don't know: 5.5%
21

An apparent advantage for the established right wing political figure and if we focus on valid votrs (i.e. how
the election will be counted on the night), Quiroga has a ten point advantage at 54.5% to 45.5% Paz. All that
looks good for Tuto, the right wing establishment politico who’s been looking to get this job for almost three
decades, but the raw numbers don’t convey the uncertainty and potential that newcomer Paz (let’s
pigeonhole him as “centre-right”) might come up on the rails as in the first round again. Overall and despite
an apparently ten point lead this desk considers the run-off as too close to call.
Argentina: Milei has a real battle on his hands
In the IKN853 “Argentina: What’s at stake on October 26th”, we tried to convey the key importance of the
upcoming mid-term “legislative elections” in Argentina and we’re not going over the same ground today.
Instead we note two developments:
1) As suspected the U$20Bn credit line extended by The USA to Argentina (aka from Trump to his friend
Milei) has caused controversy in the country, with Milei’s opposition pointing out that it’s a “lender of last
resort” move from a government that can’t even ask the IMF for further credit. They also imply how Milei
is now in the baqck pocket of “Los Janquis” (as they say down there), an all-too typical situation for
Argentine governments that has never worked out well for the country.
2) The polls show the race tightening even further (10), with the main Peronist/Kircherist “Fuerza Pais”
alliance closing in on the Milei “La Libertad Avanza” alliance and in the case of a couple of polls, taking a
slight lead. We now see votes concentrating around the two main party alliances as the country turns this
mid-term into a de facto up/down judgment on Milei.
There are still seven weeks to go but be clear, as far as South American investment cash is concerned this is
now he most important election in the region in 2025. The Chile vote is important, but as Kast is now a clear
favourite to win in the near-inevitable second round run-off FDI isn’t sweating that one as much.
Market Watching
Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) runs
From the U$16.97 as registered in IKN853 and the Market Watching note “Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) and an
obvious trade set-up”, ERO has done this:
This weekend that price has moved to U$21.44 and added +26.3% in just two weeks. ERO is another
obvious beneficiary of the Grasberg supply news and the ensuing copper price run on the market’s
assumption of an upcoming supply crunch in copper, but you have to be in it to win it and ERO is “right place
right time”, out-performing most larger cap copper stocks and offering another example of the way this
market will seek out and buy up catch-up stories while the metals keep running. Our trades in AMC.to, RPX.v
and arguably AU.v are set up to benefit from the same phenomenon.
Atico Mining (ATY.v) is a reminder they don’t keep going up forever
A stock and story we’ve followed in Market Watching for a few weeks, due mostly to its own version of a
fakey and forced Prior Consultancy meeting for its La Plata project in Ecuador pushed through “a la Loma
22

Larga” by the company and the mining ministry, we recommended taking profits on ATY in IKN853 at the 26c
and 27c level. Here’s the chart since then:
It’s still going fine at 24c and above my original sketched in target of 20c, but ATY shares seem to have
peaked all right. A reminder that speculative trades are for speculative profits, don’t approach them in the
same way you would for core and conviction trades (e.g. in my case, RIO.to or ARG.to). Prices will ebb and
flow and stocks get overbought even in the most bullish of markets.
Conclusion
IKN854 is done, we end bullet points:
 I fell asleep today. I expected to write all day today Sunday and get the Rio2 note out but five hours
of unplanned sleep put paid to that idea. I couldn’t even get mad at the good lady for letting me
sleep through.
 One of the silver linings to last week’s family crisis is that my son now has another 15 days at home,
with no pre-school classes until cleared by his pediatrician. That means we get to hang out in the
mornings instead of getting him to school by 7:30am and I’m looking forward to the extra father/son
time, as well as the lie-ins (still thinking about sleep, you see).
 Another silver lining has been to re-calibrate and realize what is important.
 But even so, I had plenty of time to sit and think about Arizona Metals (AMC.to) last week while
doing my hospital room shifts and the more I thought, the more obvious the trade became. I know
it’s not a particularly deep note on the stock today, but I didn’t want to wait a single extra day before
opening my trade.
 Keep dancing until the music stops, people. We won’t sell at the top but we will sell at prices much
higher than today’s.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if
required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://redpineexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Red-Pine-Drilling-Results-September-2025-Final-1.pdf
(2) https://www.provenancegold.com/20250925-provenance-gold-mobilizes-second-drill-rig-to-its-eldorado-project-in-eastern-oregon
(3) https://westredlakegold.com/west-red-lake-gold-announces-close-of-upsized-41-million-bought-deal-public-offering/
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHkDOnKEOvw&list=PLL7SSUI_4eXtEgt1DCLOtxUHFaCP411VR
23

(5) https://investors.fcx.com/investors/news-releases/news-release-details/2025/Freeport-Provides-Update-on-PT-Freeport-Indonesia-
Operations-df08fc3a7/default.aspx
(6) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/goldman-sachs-downgrades-copper-supply-forecast-after-grasberg-mine-disruption-2025-
09-25/
(7) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-announces-leadership-transition/default.aspx
(8) https://x.com/EcuadorMAE/status/1974477765962338626?t=06tpSX8O1I-KN-cAZsFrQg&s=03
(9) https://unitel.bo/noticias/asi-decidimos/segunda-vuelta-tuto-quiroga-supera-por-77-puntos-a-rodrigo-paz-en-la-primera-encuesta-
nacional-de-intencion-de-voto-IF17470679
(10)
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Encuestas_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_legislativas_de_Argentina_de_2025
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
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Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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