6 The IKN Weekly, issue 848 — Aug 18, 2025
The IKN Weekly
Week 848, August 17th 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, A paper calculation, What the gold/silver ratio is telling us in 2025.
Fundamental Analysis: Four things I’m considering for my money today.
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v), Rio2 Lid (RIO.v), Gold Royalty
Corp (GROY), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Surge Copper (SURG.v), Orecap Inv
(OCI.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Pampa Metals is now Andina Copper (ANDC.cse), Arizona Sonoran
(ASCU.to), Hercules Metals (BIG.v), SolGold (SOLG.l)
The Producer Basket: Overview, Franco-Nevada (FNV), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Mogotes Metals (MOG.v), Electrum Discovery (ELY.v).
Regional Politics: Bolivia: The next President is a right winger, Argentina: Export taxes on mining products
reduced to zero.
Market Watching: Plenty on Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) 2q25 financials.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
Today’s main fundies note is different from the normal fare, a certainly a long way from the detailed
consideration of Minera Alamos (MAI.v) we ran in the same space last weekend (thanks for the
feedback on that, by the way). After having raised a significant amount of cash in the personal
portfolio due to a series of coincidences (or almost by accident) in the last three or four weeks, I’ve
been wondering what to do with the money and instead of coming to some firm and fixed conclusion,
have found myself wavering between several options. So instead of rushing to a conclusion and
sounding all decided and forthright and confident to this audience, after batting around the thoughts
for too long than is healthy I decided to write what I wrote.
The impressive newsflow from Marimaca Copper (MARI.to) continues, even before the flagship
project’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) drops. Pampa Medina started as an interesting satellite
project and the potential “extra reason” for any big company to buy out MARI, the way things are
going it may end up eclipsing the main event. Market Watching covers those bases.
By request (that’s you, CM) we take a look at the weak-trading Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF) in
today’s Producer Basket. For the TL:DR in the audience (or those who don’t like pretty coloured
charts), it seems to be the classic failing of many a mining company at work. Kiena is the problem, the
company over-promised there in 2024 and it’s under-delivering now. On the other hand, the financials
indicate WDO is far from being in any sort of trouble and if it can iron out the persistent glitches,
there’s a trade for the risk tolerant in the offing.
Other things, too. There are always other things.
A paper calculation
The dog days of summer are behind us, time to crank up the real action. On the one hand, we have the
speech that the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is scheduled to make this coming Friday at
10am. Entitled “Economic Outlook and Framework Review”, it promises to be the keynote event at the 2025
1
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. On the other, we have a more direct policy initiative from
POTUS47: “I believe we should be three or four points lower. So that’s over $1 trillion we pay every year in
interest. And it’s really just a paper calculation, you sign a document and you save almost a trillion dollars.”
And you thought all that money stuff was difficult, didn’t you?
After the recent mixed signals, including that soft employment report with the significant downward revisions
of previous months’ readings and the CPI/PPI last week that saw the core readings move up for both
consumers and producers, the market will be straining on every word and dissecting each phrase spoken by
Mr. Powell for signs of what he plans to do between now and his retirement date from the job. He has five
FOMC (I think) between now and then, with the first up next month. At the moment, the market has priced
in a 25bps drop so we can reasonably take that as default, so what really matters on Friday are indications
that go above and beyond that baseline: Do we get a jumbo cut in September? To which side of the Fed’s
dual mandate is Powell leaning? How political will he dare to be about the US tariffs and their effects? All
those and more.
We last chewed over the big US macro data two weekends ago in IKN846, an intro note that ended like this:
“The likelihood of an economic slowdown just jumped considerably. In turn, and alongside the political
pressure being exerted by the Oval Office on the (newly refurbished) Fed offices, we should now
expect rate cuts in the near future.”
No reason to change that viewpoint, including the plural “cuts”, which means we’re about to get a clear signal
from US policymakers that its economy is in need of stimulation, inflation bedamned. And in order to take this
general macro backdrop as laid out and consider what it might means for our sector of focus, we move the
discussion to the interaction of gold and silver.
What the gold/silver ratio is telling us in 2025
Here’s a five year chart of the gold/silver ratio (GSR), with two items of red ink added by your author:
We first consider the long-term trend, the best-fit line showing how the ratio has increased in the post-Covid
period (in the pre-Covid period as well, but we’re trying to keep this topical), so our questions shouldn’t be
about whether gold is becoming more popular than silver, but why. Traditionally the GSR is an indicator of
economic confidence, as when the world economy is growing and firing on all cylinders silver gets bought up
for its industrial uses but when the world is on a
downturn, the same industrial users purchase Silver: Annual total supply and demand
less (or less than expected) and silver’s ratio to 1400 (NB: cut down Y-axis)
1350
gold goes up. And I’m quite aware of the 1300
1250
narrative pushed by the hardcore proponents of 1200
silver, but a look at the supply/demand tracking 1150
1100
chart for the metal (source, The Silver Institute) 1050
1000
shows exactly that (right). We know silver’s
950
price has risen, we also know the supply 900
850
shortfall is set to register its fifth consecutive
800
year in 2025, but that doesn’t take away from
the fact that overall demand for silver has
2
8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 e5202
M oz Ag
Total Supply Total Demand
source: The Silver Institute
dropped, even after we ignore the 2020/2021 Covid knee-jerk. One of the causes of this is silver’s use in
photovoltaics, previously forecast to rise in near-exponential manner but the last couple of years have not
kept up (chart right)
Silver use in photovoltaics, per annum
Which brings us to the second dab of red ink on the
above chart, the arrow pointing to what happened in
April. The initial shock caused by the main Trump tariff
announcement shook the market in all sorts of ways,
one of which being a spike in the gold/silver ratio. For
an alternative view of the same data, this YTD chart of
gold versus silver (below) shows the disruptive moment
clearly, with gold taking a temporary hit before quickly
resuming its climb higher while silver got whacked hard,
dumping from over U$34/oz to under U$30/oz on the
event.
Why so? Because the market feared a negative reaction to the US (and therefore the world) economy from
the imposition of wide-ranging tariffs and if that reminds you of the situation today, you’ll probably realize
why I prefer gold to silver going forward. Back in early 2024, I put my normal cynicism toward silver to one
side and got constructively bullish on the metal’s prospects and though always preferring gold, added a series
of silver-centric trades to the portfolio mix. For example, here’s a quote from IKN778 dated April 14th, a
couple of weeks after buying shares in SilverCrest Metals (ex-SILV):
“It (silver) has momentum, the technical/chart breakout has been trumpeted all over the market and
speculators and paying new attention. So even without a feeding frenzy, silver is a decent risk/reward
speculation at today’s levels.”
That timing worked out well and along with SILV, we’ve played several other silver stocks since then. Some
of the trades worked well (e.g. Silvercrest, AbraSilver) and some didn’t (e.g. IMPACT), but they all followed
the same theme and in the ensuing year and a half, the portfolio has profited from silver exposure, all while
refusing to jump on board the “Silver To Da Moon Whargle Bargle!!!” bandwagon. The move from U$28/oz
(April 14th 2024) to U$38/oz today has been good, constructive and profitable without setting the world on
fire. However, my official position changed recently with the closing of the ABRA.to trade and while I’m the
first to admit I sold too early (left 15% of the table, hey ho) it marks my reversion to clearly preferring gold
and seeing too much speculative hype in the Jekyll & Hyde metal.
Be clear: I’m not denigrating silver’s rise to where it is today and I’m certainly not discounting its potential to
bust through my nominal U$40/oz target and go higher over time. This is about risk management (that
subject again) and as things stand today, with a US economy looking wobbly and macro signals of issues
rising, it strikes me as wiser to trim the sails and ride any US Dollar weakness using gold, rather than silver.
In the meantime, I’ll be hanging on Jay Powell’s words on Friday the same as the rest of you all, one of the
rare occasions when we could actually get some soap opera level drama from this dust dry merchant banker,
so far the best we’ve had is when he told a bunch of climate change protesters to close an effing door.
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1.69 8.28 501 9.88
721 1.811
1.161
7.291 232 6.791 7.591
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
source: The Silver Institute
gA
zoM
annual TSI forecast
Annual TSI reported result
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Four things I’m considering for my money today
This week’s main fundies section is a change to normal programming, in fact it’s less analysis and more op-ed
(or even rant) that’s based on some personal criteria, but in saying that I’ll also state for the record that if it
didn’t think it useful for you the reader I wouldn’t have even contemplated writing this, let alone doing it. It’s
come about as an answer to the current impasse I feel toward the market, due in part to personal
circumstances but also because of the need to be open about how I see our sector of focus at the moment.
There is a convergence of factors in play:
The macro backdrop is uncertain, as alongside all the geopolitical flux we have the twin clouds of
economic slowdown and inflation, bringing the rising threat of the S-Word Stagflation, back in play.
Gold and silver have been flat-lining for several weeks, arguably true for copper and the base metals
complex. However, we’re also seeing miners large and small catch a bid at market as the world wakes up
to the margins and profit being made by the big mining companies.
I am still bullish the metals, particularly gold, keen to “Keep Dancing Til The Music Stops” as that little
ditty has held us in good stead all year. However, while still convinced that “long gold” is the right call I
cannot help but see headwinds in the near-term.
This makes my personal position uncomfortable. By luck of judgment, I presently find myself with an
excess of cash suddenly in the portfolio. Under normal circumstances, the “Keep Dancing” rule means
you stay as long as possible and if a lull in the bull market comes along you just rough it out until
momentum returns. However, the somewhat coincidental decisions to liquidate two larger-sized and
profitable precious metals positions, namely AbraSilver (ABRA.to) and Eldorado Gold (EGO), along with
the unpleasant surprise sprung by Minera Alamos (MAI.v) ten days ago that got me lightening my
position in that erstwhile Top Pick means I now have plenty of cash available at a time when I shouldn’t.
As a result, I currently have the desire get buy something, get longer and assuage FOMO (fear of missing
out) but at the same time, I’m scratching my head a little as to what to do about it.
That’s the backdrop, now for the practical side to today’s note. While aware the performance of our Stocks to
Follow list isn’t #1 in the world this year, I have to admit I’m happy about the way the portfolio has
performed so far. This is less about the minor trades that carry less of my personal cash, more about the
ones that matter to my back pocket and on that score, we’ve seen strong wins in 2025 to date. The trades in
Lumina Gold, AbraSilver, Marimaca Copper, Gold Royalty Corp and Rio2 Ltd have worked out well and made
coin (with some of those liquidated), while at a second level the decent cash profits from Amerigo, Aftermath
and Eldorado are nothing to sniff at, either. However, I’m also keenly aware of the old stock market adage
“you’re only as good as your last trade” so the slice of humble pie served by Minera Alamos and my vision for
the market going forward is one of the main reasons this note exists today. Put simply (and underlined/bold
typed to make sure it gets through) I have no conviction trades to offer at the moment. Or put in the
way that matters most, if you’re looking for a strong and confident trade call today you’re probably better off
asking somebody else, as for the time being I’m really not sure what to do.
That means “what to do with my money” of course, but ultimately that’s what matters due to our use of the
“least worst” method (see IKN847 intro last weekend). For sure I have ideas (four of them follow below), but
I’ve found myself chewing each of them over for too long a time and failing to make a decision. Also, as it’s
the moment for true confession, on more than one occasion in recent days I’ve felt the need to make a call,
come to a decision and present a new trade that would carry some of my own money simply because The
IKN Weekly has an audience to keep happy. The road to Hell is paved with good intentions. Therefore,
instead of putting on an act for applause and social media Like button popularity, I decided to write this,
include the four ideas I’m considering. I’m not saying the trade ideas are bad or destined for failure, I am
saying that here today, August 2025, I’m not seeing the market with the same level of clarity and
decisiveness that I enjoyed a few months back when plonking down cash on GROY or exhorting you to get
long and stay long MARI. Above all, today’s note is designed to let you know that I can’t make up my mind,
to show you my doubts about the market. Sometimes the best decision is no decision at all.
With that said, I now lay out the four ideas I’ve most considered in recent days. Here’s the list, below come
details and sketches of the four:
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1) Hold cash for a while and stop with the FOMO
2) Buy i-80 Gold Corp (IAUX) (IAU.to):
3) Buy/add some tinycaps.
4) The WWAD Trade:
Here we go with some thoughts on each:
1) Hold cash for a while and stop with the FOMO. This is the “anti-idea” and the one that most
balances the other three. I don’t often find myself with this amount of cash available in what is seemingly a
strong market for mining stocks, particularly the most tempting sub-sector of gold stocks. However, I can’t
shake the thought that by either luck of judgment, I may find myswelf in cash at what could be a near-term
market top and if so, why should I rush to get back in? Perhaps the best decision would be to stop worrying
about missing out on a few extra percentage points, see how the current geopolitics play out, watch as the
Fed vs Trump show does its thing and watch the board market as it tries to get over the fact that stocks are
at record index levels and near record price/earnings multiples.
This is the boring option, it’s the one that least pleases the crowd (e.g. you) and the antithesis of the “Do
Something” mentality that tempts one into faking conviction to please an audience. It’s also the option that’s
won out so far, because while considering the other three ideas (below) it’s there in the back of my mind, a
counterbalance to the thoughts of actually making a proactive long trade.
Now for the three real trade ideas, starting with one that was a live option just days ago:
2) Buy i-80 Gold Corp (IAUX) (IAU.to): When IAUX/IAU.to filed its 2q25 report on Wednesday morning I
was keen to process the numbers, as it’s one of the stocks on the Watch List and also one that’s recently
returned to the centre of the radar thanks to a reasonable price re-trace that brought it back to buyable
levels (see IKN847 last weekend). I was therefore encouraged with both the contents of the 2q25 report, the
general vision of the company guidance, but most of all the way in which the market flatlined on the numbers
all that Wednesday, The original plan as mooted in IKN835 dated May 18th (“Why i-80 Gold Corp (IAU.to)
(IAUX) is now worth a gamble”) was to run a near-term
trade that played the channel between its price at the
C$0.95 level of the recently added warrants overhang
and at sub C$0.80, there was near-term money to be
made. I started plotting a new write-up on IAU for this
edition, then suddenly the chart (right) happened. I
have no idea why, but on Thursday afternoon the IAU
stock price suddenly woke up and ramped into the
close. It was a little discouraging, but I thought that if
Friday saw it re-trace again my trade idea was still in-
play, but as you can see in the above chart, Friday just
saw more and more buyers pile in and the C$0.96 close
removed all semblance of near-term flip-trade value.
The trade idea was dead.
It was striking and odd that it picked up that amount of interest after having laid dormant after its 2q25
financials filed before the bell on Wednesday, so I went back and had another good look at the numbers to
see whether a longer-term trade were viable, something that could target a bigger price increase over a
longer period of time. The answer is “probably yes”, or perhaps “possibly yes” but I couldn’t get away from
the extra risk of buying and holding this stock for even a medium term time span, what with the heavy debt
load and the clear need for more financing before its operations become self-sustaining, as well as the time it
will take to turn this company around. Yes, i-80 could turn out to be a real success in 2027 or beyond, yes I
like the attitude of its new management team that are less concerned with quick fixes, more about building a
solid base and repeating the success they enjoyed at Teranga. But do I want to hold and loss-making gold
miner fracturing cash just to meet its debt servicing schedule for a 18 months? In this market? No thanks.
Unless IAU can offer me the near-term trade originally envisaged in IKN835 it’s a pass. For a day last week it
looked possible, but I’m not a buyer at any price and that fact speaks volumes for my lack of conviction in
this trade. With that idea dropped, thoughts moved to easier sized trades
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3) Buy/add some tinycaps. The idea here is simple enough; we’ve seen the big caps move higher, we’re
now seeing rotation into second and even third level stocks as cash profits move and find leverage. As the
bull market matures further, it makes sense that we’ll see money trickle down to the tinycap stocks and as I
pay fairly close attention to this sub-sector, there are a bunch of options available that I believe are currently
dirt cheap and ready to revalue if/when cash makes its way into the nooks and crannies of the junior mining
world. Four that come to mind for different reasons are:
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v)
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v)
XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v)
Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse)
None of them are perfect, but they’re all cheap, they all have live stories and interesting projects, they’d all
benefit significantly from new market interest and perhaps most importantly importantly, they’re run by
management teams pulling in the same direction as shareholders. You may be able to think of alternatives to
my short list of four (there are 1,500 stocks listed on the TSX/V, after all) and by no means would I limit
anyone else to those stocks, but they fit what I’m looking for in a high risk/high reward speculation. The main
downsides to this idea are 1) In order to make a real dent in my cash pile I’d have to buy a lot of shares in
these stocks, to the extent where I’d probably add more risk than I want to stomach for my overall portfolio
and that’s not the way I normally play these stocks. My tinycap trades (as seen in the lower portion of the
Recommended Stocks list below) tend to be small, manageable and while the trades nearly always come with
the potential of a big win, they’re also the size that wouldn’t affect my life if they go to zero. The other issue
with going long and longer tinys caps is that 2) if I get it wrong and the market drops hard, it can be
extremely difficult to sell out of these tiny positions as the liquidity often drops to near zero and the bid/ask
spreads are close to legal robbery.
That leaves my final trade idea, one that’s entirely a “strategy play” and not based on company fundies:
4) The WWAD Trade: This stands for “What Will Agnico Do?” and it’s a trade idea that has been in the
back of my mind for a while, but really germinated on July 30th, the day AEM filed its 2q25 earnings report.
Mostly because of this:
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We know about the resounding success enjoyed by AEM in the last couple of years, but the AEM balance
sheet shows the fruits of its longer term corporate strategy as in just six months of 2025, the company has
added over U$630m in cash to its balance sheet and U$1.5Bn to its overall book value.
That is an awful lot of money, ladies and gentlemen.
When a company collects this much cash, it immediately bega the question as to what it’s going to do with it
all. For sure it could simply distribute to shareholders (bonus dividends, buybacks etc) but the type of cash
harvesting you see on the above balance doesn’t happen by chance or studious ignorance at board level.
That’s a strategy at play, one that’s enjoyed fortunate timing with the price of gold in 2025 but a strategy all
the same. AEM rode through a down cycle when it was building out its current book of mine assets and a few
years ago came in for criticism for its high price-earnings ratio (you don’t hear much of that any more). The
company runs on a long-term strategy cycle and that involves investment over long periods, making hay
while the sun shines and reinvestment of profiting free cash flow and steering largely clear of the debt
burdens prevalent among its peers (note long-term bank debt of U$544m, a number Barrick dreams about).
So with AEM now collecting cash like there’s no tomorrow, the “what they gonna do?” question surfaced. So
yes, WWAD with its cash? For me, there are several likely criteria to help narrow down the target:
AEM is proud of its low overall country and political risk profile, one that’s based firmly in its Canadian
roots but also one they don’t want to dilute too much by adding too many high risk jurisdictions to its
asset book.
They’re willing to invest in the long-term future and to do that, the obvious way forward is to build their
own mines instead of engaging in M&A (which gets expensive at this point in the cycle).
They tend to operate in places they are familiar with. Canada is the obvious example, but looking around
the Canadian scene it’s getting difficult to identify mining assets of the size required to move the needle
of a U$67Bn market capper.
And the more I thought about it, the more Finland fitted the bill.
AEM is already operating and happy there, it’s comfortable with the people, the location and the
government
its Kittila mine has turned into a real money spinner and the country risk profile is one that fits well
with AEM strategy.
There’s plenty of exploration potential and largely untapped areas of highly prospective geology.
It’s already collected enough cash to buy out the best looking projects in the zone close to its
working mine, resources that are near-ready to develop and move into operation.
And importantly for little me in the peanut gallery, there are obvious ways to play AEM’s interest in
the region.
Before I knew it, I was downloading quarterlies and corporate presentations of Aurion Resources (AU.v) and
once that door were opened, the
other main player in the area as well.
To cut a long story short (which I’m
wont to do today, this is a strategy
trade idea rather than fundamentally
deep on any given company), this
map (right) from the Firefox Gold
corporate presentation does a good
job of showing the regional
opportunity as well as the four
companies that most interest me as
potential plays.
To the North in the orange (AEM
concession) zone and pointed to by
the yellow arrow, we see the location
its Kittila mine and a couple of its
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resource parameters (e.g. 9m oz expected to last through 2035). Then to the South we see a band of
concessions, targets and projects in a patchwork of colour cose showing the different owners. The region is
known as the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt, or CLGB, and it’s where I think AEM is going to plough its
burgeoning cash pile. The map and inset below is from the same map and are offered as close-ups for easier
reading
Included in the CLGB is the Ikkari
project, owned by Rupert Resources
(RUP.to) and with a 3.5m oz Au P+P
reserve that is advanced enough to
have a PFS report to its name. However, it’s also clear there are other players in the region and all of them
are interesting to a greater or lesser extent, except perhaps B2Gold as that company has a larger world risk
profile that I believe would be less interesting to AEM. So here comes the quick and dirty on the four stocks I
like as strategy buys, ones I think might successfully answer the underlying “WWAD” question:
Rupert Resources (RUP.to): The most advanced and most expensive potential purchase for AEM:
Shares out: 234.28m
Share price: C$5.19
Market cap: C$1.22Bn
Though even C$1.22Bn is an easy pill to swallow for a company that adds that much cash to its treasury in a
single year. These three year (left) and one year (right) charts of RUP.to show its price evolution and while
it’s been on a tear in 2025, it’s still reasonably price compared to where it was in 2023 and these days, with a
very good looking gold mine project at PFS stage.
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Aurion Resources (AU.v): The second largest company in the region by market cap:
Shares out: 149.6m
Share price C$0.82
Market cap: C$244.93m
One of the things often said about AU is that RUP needs to do a deal with this company in order to unlock
the full value of Ikkari, so it’s been a bit of a head-scratcher that we’ve seen nothing from either RUP or AU
on this score in the years they’ve worked the zone. However, once you add in the “WWAD?” factor and
remember that Dave Lotan is a very smart business person, you end up with “Why sell to RUP when you can
realize full value on the day AEM scoops up the whole region?”
In this case, the 12 month chart (right) looks a lot healthier than the five year chart and a reminder that aU
carries quite a bit of baggage.
Valkea Resources (OZ.v): We go down in scale to a new company on the block:
Shares out: 48.6m
Share price C$0.49
Market cap: C$23.8m
I don’t mind admitting I knew nothing about OZ.v until August
2nd 2025 and still don’t know much about it today, but if deals
start happening in the CLGB it won’t matter if this company is
included or not in the first round of mergers, not at this price
tag. This market cap brings area play leverage to the table
and the 12-month chart shows that I’m hardly the only period
to have thought the same recently:
Firefox Gold Resources (FFOX.v): The smaller market cap by a whisker:
Shares out: 37.83m
Share price C$0.57
Market cap: C$21.56m
Longer in the tooth than OZ.v, FFOX offers us a five year chart
and as it’s just enacted a ten-4-one reverse split, its recent 4c
price changed to 40c and most recently 57c while it
commanded much higher prices a couple of years ago.
The trade idea here would be similar to that of OZ.v, buy up
the stock in anticipation of AEM’s scoop-em-up move.
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Conclusion: This is where my mind is today, stuck between the idea of holding cash for a while and caring a
little less if the market runs away from me and deploying cash in decent ideas that don’t grab my full
conviction. And above all, today’s main fundies note is that final message, I don’t have a strong plan at the
moment and it’s best you realize that.
Stocks to Follow
An improved performance for Stocks to Follow list compared to the week before, with the main trades mostly
higher and the smaller stuff an acceptable mixed bag. Of the 16 open positions listed, seven were winners
(RIO.v, ARG.to, MARI.to, OCI.v, IAUX, PGDC.v, MENE.v) including big percentage moves in Patagonia
(PGDC.v up 25.0%), Mene Inc (MENE.v up 20.0%), Marimaca (MARI.to up 13.1%) and i-80 Gold (IAUX up
11.4%) and while most of those are from the bottom of the table and doing me little or no financial favours,
the run on news and volume from Marimaca made a reasonable week into a good one for my personal back
pocket. Three stocks were unchanged on the week (MAI.v, RPX.v, MIRL.cse) and that leaves six losers
(GROY, WRLG.v, SRL.v, LMS.v, SURG.v, PAU.cse) and though a perfect world would have no losers to report,
none of those moves are cause for concern. I still feel lightly exposed to the market overall (see above) but
at least the portfolio as stands is doing its thing again.
There are 16 open positions on our Stocks to Follow list, four fewer than our self-imposed maximum. Of
those, 13 of those carry at least some of my personal money and the other three are in the Watch List sub-
section. Same as last week, thirteen stocks are in the green and three are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$1.67 108.8% Fenix build and re-rate on
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v hold/buy C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% $0.70 tgt no longer top pick
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$2.10 36.4% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$11.16 265.9% Quality Cu dev, FS due
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$3.03 116.4% Now at 1st tgt going higher
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.84 20-Jul-25 C$0.86 2.4% Bot twice, may add again
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.13 62.5% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.21 10.5% proj.generator, Organullo spec
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.085 -22.7% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v spec buy $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.145 38.1% bulk copper in good address
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.075 25.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
i-80 Gold IAUX WATCH U$0.50825 18-May-25 U$0.6859 35.0% Close to buyable again
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.075 275.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.17 100.0% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.18 -60.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
10
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
Minera Alamos MAI.v Aug'25 C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.34 61.9% lightened overweight position
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): PARTIAL SALE. It got to Friday and I toyed with not selling any, but the optics
would not have been good after last week’s extended note and decision. However, I need to admit that I
didn’t sell as many as planned and that leaves selling to do next week. The reticence is for two main reasons,
firstly the general 33c and 34c looked too cheap even in the near-term (as witnessed by the UNCH 34.5c
close on the week), secondly because by selling I was reducing my exposure to a gold bull market, with no
idea what to do with the cash collecting in treasury. So be clear I’m still selling the approx 30% of the
position as planned last week, but it’ll take a few more days.
In other news, two things to report: Firstly and in a shock to nobody, MAI.v announced (1) that its
“Previously Announced Bought Deal Private Placement is Fully Allocated”, with the overallotment fully taken
for gross proceeds of C$135m. That’s as advertised, it’s also good to see the MAI team remaining consistent
in its messaging and not upsizing the financing deal.
Secondly, incoming Chair Jason Kosec gave a webinar presentation on Wednesday and it’s worth watching if
you haven’t already, the reply link here (2). I’ve watched it twice (and a couple of parts three times) and
came away with two thoughts
The deal is dilutive, but it does make sense. That’s nothing we didn’t mention in last week’s note, but the
popularity of the bought deal isn’t just because of the discount and instos wouldn’t have got on board if it
weren’t for the basic good sense of the plan.
Chair Kosec was more nervous during the presentation than I’d expected. During our Zoom call two
Thursdays ago he struck me as eloquent and focused, the type of C-suite image typical to the TSX world.
However, on Wednesday it struck me that he realizes his own career is in-play with this deal and he has
a lot more than just money on the line. After the entry and exit from Integra, Kosec has something to
prove this time around because if this chapter of his professional life goes wrong, the weight of suspicion
after two swings-and-misses would be much greater. To borrow from Oscar Wilde’s Lady Bracknell, “"To
lose one parent, Mr Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness."
Finally and to wrap up this section on MAI, last week saw Equinox (EQX) report its quarter and along with
plenty of bigger headlines from its 2q25, we got production and sales data from its Pan mine, about to
become MAI property. The following charts appeared last week, all that’s changed is the addition of data for
2q25 starting with tonnages mined and strip rate, which dropped to 2.32X. Those 2025 strip ratios suggest
that Pan is seeing the benefit of the gold price and some of the mined material as a result becomes ore and
goes on the pad, instead of waste that goes to the other pile.
Pan Mine: Mined tonnages, per qtr
11
25.2
79.0
41.3
41.1
99.2
43.1
72.2
98.1
94.2
92.1
70.3
01.1
46.2
31.1
81.3
41.1
41.3
99.0
40.3
80.1
53.3
91.1
44.3
21.1
99.2
71.1
97.2
02.1
5
4
3
2
1
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
mmt Pan Mine: Strip rate, per qtr
3.50
ore mined waste mined 3.25
3.00
2.75
2.50 2.25 2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
source: Calibre/Equinox filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: Calibre/Equinox filings, IKN calcs
However grade (below left) improved to 0.37 g/t. That’s closer to the M+I median and could just be mine
sequencing.
Gold produced and gold sold (above right) improved compared to Q1, with 8,265 oz sold. On a straight line
basis that’s still lower than the guidance of 35k to 40k oz
gold per year. The implied recovery percentage dropped
again (right), but these figures cannot really be used on a
quarter-by-quarter comparative basis, as this is a heap
leach and there cycle lag to consider. The 57.9% number
is at the low end, but you’d expect it to trend back up as
Pan stays around its median recovery rate over time.
Finally, EQX reported AISC at U$1,737/oz, slightly above
the guided U$1,700/oz but as that includes the end part of
the recent capital works on the tailings dam lift, as well as
a lower than average gold production, it’s in the realm of
the acceptable. For what it’s worth, MAI Chair Kosec reiterated in the webinar on Wednesday that they
expect costs to trend lower in the quarters to come.
Pan Mine: Cash costs, per qtr
12
3721 7341
1871
1021 3631 3941 0251 7451 6751
5671 3181
7451
8471 7371
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
Pan Mine: Gold pad grade, per qtr
U$/oz total cash costs
AISC
source: Calibre/Equinox filings
Summing up:
MAI’s trading week went okay without putting in the rebound I was looking for on Thursday/Friday.
Therefore I still have some selling to do to (and that closed trade cost average may change in editions to
come).
The Pan mine is worth the money they’re paying, Gold Rock makes the package look even better (and
according to the webinar, Illipah came for free).
It’s not a perfect world, but it could be worse. A final finally, after receiving a couple of feedback mails
alluding to the point in the same way, yes it’s easier to lighten this position when you’re making a round trip
profit on the sales. However long the holding period and its implied opportunity cost, the psychological factor
of buying at 21 and selling at 34 is an advantage.
74.0 43.0 73.0 93.0 83.0 93.0 43.0 33.0 73.0 44.0 44.0 63.0 13.0 73.0
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25 0.2 0.15
0.1
0.05
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
g/t Au Pan Mine: Gold produced and sold, per qtr
source: company filings
9659 53901 48101 92411 57701 02401 4279 97401 1776 5319 9469 4769 6707 5628
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000 4000
2000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
Oz Au
gold produced
gold sold
source; Calibre/Equinox filings
Pan Mine: Implied recovery percentage
100
89.0 86.4 90 77.082.4
80 64.0 67.7 63.2 74.2
70 59.3 58.0 56.8 61.4 57.9
60 49.3
50
40
30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
%
source: IKN calcs from Calibre data
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): A drill assay NR from WRLG this week (3), something that the company
should be able to deliver to the market with regularity now that it’s fully active underground. We’ve known
since the Pure Gold days that the South Austin zone at Madsen is home to some particularly high grading
mineral and we got an example of that in the headline last week:
West Red Lake Gold Expands High-Grade Zone in South Austin with 36.85 g/t Au over
6.9m, 92.39 g/t Au over 2m and 8.79 g/t Au over 15.5m
There were plenty of holes reported (holes 24 and 26 were a couple of the stand-outs) and on the morning
the stock price reacted well, hitting a recent high of 92c
(see red arrow on chart, right). But then sellers showed
up and come Friday, when the sector zigged higher
WRLG zagged a little lower, ending the week at 86c.
That late week selling is nothing to fret over in my
opinion, just an observation. As for the reaction to the
news, for me it shows how a NR that’s a net neutral for
the stock at this point is still garnering hype and
enthusiasm from the peanut gallery. WRLG isn’t going
to re-rate on drilling, especially not drilling in a zone
that’s known for containing high grade. This stock re-
rates on its move into commercial production, that’s the
bet here.
Rio2 Lid (RIO.v): We do the 2q25 financial numbers for out Top Pick in Market Watching, here a comment
on its price action and the apparent price cap on the stock
as reported last weekend didn’t last long, as the reaction
to the Tuesday RIO.v announcing first ore placement on
the newly laid leach pad (8) saw that busted and the
shares into the C$1.70s (and we’ll ignore the fat finger
trade at the bell). Some selling as the week ended took
the edge off the gains, but we’re still at a new weekly high
and with the ramp-up clearly going well in both timing and
budget, there’s every reason to expect the re-rate to
continue as RIO.v checks off the milestones.
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): A step back from last
week. The stock traded weakly on Monday, then the likely
reason showed up when a million shares went through first thing Tuesday morning that fat-fingered the price
as low as U$2.80. If I had to guess, I’d go for profit-taking from a NYSE desk used to trading large widths
and not aware what clumsy trades can do to juniors, as for the rest of the week GROY traded in line with
peers but the damage had been done and it couldn’t recover any of the lost ground in the first minute of
Tuesday trading.
I can’t say I’m worried. But I can say that after seeing the stock reach my target range of U$3.20/U$3.30 the
week before last so quickly, it was ripe for a correction.
13
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): On Wednesday, we got an update on how the El Teniente (DET) operations
suspension was affecting ARG.to at its MVC facility (4). As per last weekend, we knew that eight of the 12
DET sections were back to work and that was confirmed in the NR. We also knew that during the 11 day full
stoppage, ARG estimated production would fall short by around 100,000 lbs copper per day and last week,
we learned this:
“MVC is now processing fresh tailings from El Teniente and also handling historic tailings. Until
operations at El Teniente are normalized, Amerigo expects daily throughput from the fresh tailings to
be lower than initially forecast in MVC’s 2025 production schedule.”
“To the extent possible, MVC will mitigate any production impacts by increasing the processing of
historic tailings,” said Aurora Davidson, Amerigo’s President and CEO. “Once we have data on El
Teniente’s throughput over the next few days, we will provide a production update,” she added.
From here, it all depends on how long the remaining sections of DET will remain shuttered and how much of
its normal throughput can be taken up by its historic tailing supply line. As noted in the above excerpt, ARG is
going to tell us more as soon as they know something, but today we can take a rough guess. We assume the
11 days full stoppage at DET results in 1.1mlbs production shortfall for ARG in 3q25. If DET now at 2/3rds
production, it depends on the productivity of the segment but as a very rough guess, let’s assume that for
ARG is implies 30,000lb per day less from fresh tailings. However, they should be able to replace a portion of
those pounds with extra supply from the historic tailings, so after sticking a finger in the air I’m going to
guesstimate ARG production is currently around 20,000lbs/day lower than its forecast. Finally, let’s take a
guess at the four DET segments staying offline one month.
1.1m lbs + (20klbs/day X 20 days) = 1.5m lbs.
Not a massive hit, but a bump in the road and the type of temporary production hit that could put back plans
to pay a bonus dividend at the end of this quarter.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): There’s a longer note on MARI in ‘Market Watching’ below today, here we
do price action and note whether the market liked the news release (5) and the assay results from Pampa
Medina:
Yes, it did. We’d already noted in a couple of recent editions that there were virtually zero sellers at the C$10
level, despite the fat profits on offer for virtually all holders of this stock. Under those circumstances, it only
takes a single extra dose of good news to get a reaction such as the above.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): In its Thursday NR “Surge Copper
Provides Corporate and Operational Update” (6), the company
did exactly that and gave a rundown of its busy ness on site at
Berg, including details of the relatively modest 1,500m drill
program being undertaken this year. The thrust of the
communication was “we’re working toward the PFS”, without
noting an estimated date for that key document, which means
it’s still some way in the future. As around a third of the
current Berg resource is still in the inferred category,
presumably future campaigns will include more drill that allows
it inclusion in the PFS.
14
Personally, the idea behind buying SURG was to provide leverage to the copper price, as the large resource is
still very cheaply valued even today. However, I am kicking myself slightly for not taking the virtual double at
the start of last month, that price move was exactly the type I’d anticipated. Holding, but not forever.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): The liquid-ish assets book this weekend covers 6.5c of OCI’s 7.5c share price, which is
still cheap when you consider what you get for that extra penny.
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.53 6.25 2.5
ARIC.v 7.39 0.54 3.99 1.6
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.34 1.42 0.6
XXIX.v 22.992 0.085 1.95 0.8
KTR.v 42.750 0.035 1.50 0.6
MERG.v 5.125 0.025 0.13 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.035 0.86 0.3
subtotal 16.10 6.5
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 16.13 6.5c
At 247.714 S/O
But at least the market is being consistent.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-three weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 25.47% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 449.57 14.98 116.5%
2 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 279.21 600.30 2.15 50.3%
3 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 174.6 462.69 2.65 80.3%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 436.68 2.57 35.3%
5 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 388.92 2.37 43.6%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 297.94 2.39 16.6%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.516 252.78 1.23 66.2%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 286.19 208.92 0.73 32.7%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 173.377 91.89 0.53 -23.2%
10 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 87.82 0.58 -13.4%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 124.195 65.82 0.53 -15.9%
12 Andina Copper ANDC.cse 0.16 211.085 59.10 0.28 75.0%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 21.93 0.085 -22.7%
14 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 18.95 0.54 -10.0%
15 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 117.73 18.84 0.16 -49.2%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg 25.47%
Another decent week for The Copper Basket, the basket average up another 3.58% to hit new 2025 highs
thanks to ten winners (not listing them all) versus four
losers (BIG.v, KBX.cse, CGNT.v, ANDC.cse) and just one The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
30%
stock unchanged on the week (AE.v). The only big loser
25%
was the newly named Andina Copper (ANDC.cse down
20%
16.4%), as for the winners the big moves came from 15%
Trilogy (TMQ.to up 19.1%), SolGold (SOLG.l up 10.8%) 10%
5%
and Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to up 9.96%, or 10% in real
0%
15 -5%
-10%
-15%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs
money) and let’s tack Element 29 (ECU.v up 9.3%) on the list of big moves as well, it probably deserves it.
The main driver of our sub-sector, copper-the-
metal, had a quiet week in both price and
trading with the August lull now showing in
classic style. If you’re looking for market action
this summer, find somewhere else than the
metals trading pits at least until after Labor Day.
As for our curated copper comment for the
week, let’s run with the news out of Zambia
because the recent tailings dam breach (which
didn’t make much news at the time) has
become an international level incident. Here’s
Bloomberg (7)
The partial collapse of a waste dam at a
Chinese state-owned copper mine in Zambia may have released 30 times more toxic sludge into the
environment than previously reported, according to an independent evaluation of the disaster.
At least 1.5 million tons of the poisonous substance escaped when a reservoir failed at the Sino-
Metals Leach Zambia Ltd. mine near the northern city of Kitwe, findings from the company hired to
assess the environmental damage showed. That would fill more than 400 Olympic-sized pools and
rank the incident among the mining industry’s worst catastrophes globally.
The government and the company have previously said 50,000 tons spilled in the February disaster.
Video evidence from social media and field data show this to be “grossly inaccurate,” Drizit Zambia
Ltd. — hired by Sino-Metals to conduct an environmental audit of the accident — said in a June 3
letter seen by Bloomberg and verified by the company.
Most notable about this story is the way the government of Zambia had been quick to take the side of the
Chinese investment money, rather than its own citizens. The river in question is the water source for as many
as five million people, including those in the country’s capital Lusaka, and according to the independent
report last week, dead fish with symptoms connected with the event have been found 100km from the
location of the tailings collapse (it’s no longer a simple “breach”). Despite that, the Zambian government has
been doing its utmost to downplay the event and accuse outside governments, including The USA which has
removed its government personnel from the area due to the risk of cancerous contamination, or overreacting.
The reason Zambia government seems to be siding with the Chinese over its own people? Why, money of
course. In ironic timing, on Thursday this news hit the wires
(8): “Zambia's copper production in the first half of this year mmt CuZambia: Annual copper production and forecasts
3.5 3
was about 439,664 metric tons, up from 373,263 tons in the
3
same period last year, mines minister Paul Kabuswe said on
2.5
Thursday.” The country previously forecast production of 2
around 1m metric tonnes for 2025, up from the 820,067mt 1.5 1
of 2024. The country’s longer-term ambitions include copper 1 0.73258 0.82067
production at 3m metric tonnes by 2031. 0.5
0
When it occurred early in Q1, the tailings incident got 2023 2024 2025est … 2031est
reporters and analysts to wonder whether the accident source: Bloomberg, Zambia govt
would cause tensions between Zambia and China or put a
doubt on its copper sector growth plans for the year or further out. We now have our answer, as even with
the news that this accident is manifold times more serious than previously supposed it’s clear the country is
set on a policy of growth at all costs. Quite a cost to pay, as well.
We move to our weekly check-up of copper inventory movements.
In a quiet week for copper trading, the three official copper inventories systems added an
aggregate total 8,965 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 485,178mt.
The Shanghai SHFE copper stores added 4,428mt to finish at 86,933mt.
LME copper stocks closed unchanged on the week at 155,850mt.
16
Every week Comex adds copper stocks is a record week, this time its total under roof improved by
3,537mt to close at 242,395mt.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows the slow drift up and 2025 is now away from the virtual zero levels seen in
2022 and 2023. They’re still low, but it would take an abrupt change to put SHFE into emergency zones this
year.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a few of our basket stocks:
Pampa Metals is now Andina Copper (ANDC.cse): As from Wednesday, the previously approved name
and ticker change went into effect and Pampa Metals is now Andina Copper (ANDC.v), the new name
reflecting (we quote) “…the company’s evolution into a leading South American focused copper explorer
holding two significant discoveries and a compelling undrilled copper-gold target along the world’s premier
copper producing belt.” Or if you prefer, adding Cobrasco in the deep Colombia jungle didn’t fit with a name
that conjures up images of flat lands in Argentina with gauchos on horseback eating copious amounts of beef
around evening campfires. Or something like that. While on the subject, we note ANDC expects to transfer to
the TSXV soon and also has plans to dual list on the Australian ASX.
The name change comes with a new corporate presentation, so if you want to get the quick and rose-tinted
overview of what the company plans at Cobrasco and its more established Piuquenes project in Argentina, go
check it out here (9). I’m going to continue to sit this one out, what with having previously taken a close look
at Cobrasco while under Rugby Metals and found the political risk situation sky high, even by Colombian
standards. That’s a tough neck of the woods in which to operate even a basic bootleather exploration and
mapping program, let alone bring in drills and make yourself a de facto sitting target for several weeks. Of
course I hope I’m wrong about Cobrasco and its risk profile, but either way I’m not going to back it with my
own money.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): We’ve followed this name for several years on these pages and even traded it
in a minor though successful way at one point. That little prelude is to frame this long-term price chart…
..as the move made by ASXU last week looked different from past, even considering the strong gains it’s
made this year. ASCU hit a new multi-year high and kept going once it did, which is what you’d want to see
from a stock that has A-lister coverage and location advantage of being in The USA at the right time for
critical metals stories.
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): One US-based copper story that didn’t move up with the rest was BIG.v, down
4.0% and the only larger market cap on our list to lose ground last week. That’s probably because of its
C$17.25 placement priced at 70c (no warrant), which closed on Thursday (10) with the overallotment fully
taken. The 286m and bits share count puts its market cap at over C$208 this weekend.
This bought deal placement was part of the deal put together with Barrick (B) at the end of July that
effectively swapped Barrick’s staked land around its Leviathan belt to form (what they’ll now probably refer to
as) the Hercules Copper Belt. At the time, the market was surprised at the low 70c price of the deal and
plenty of people presumed the placement would be quickly upsized, so seeing it close with just the
overallotment taken suggests Barrick’s directives included “asking nicely” that BIG didn’t dilute any further. As
Barrick is probably going to get its property payments in shares rather than cash, it makes sense that it
doesn’t want BIG to get too diluted. All in all, it sure looks as though the bigboy in this JV is calling the shots
and that’s not a great signal for the BIG share price.
SolGold (SOLG.l): I feel really stupid about this stock and feel as though I let a winner slip through my
fingers. Last week’s news (8) that the company had drilled
what it considered to be the right zone for a low cost starter
pit that would lower the capex burden and provide quick early
stage cash flow was again greeted with cheers and buyers by
a market that couldn’t give two hoots for the company and its
story just weeks ago. It took a couple of months longer than
their original plan, but you have to credit the new
management team for delivering on their plan as stated and
reviving interest in Cascabel this way. And me, ready to cover
and even buy the stock a few weeks ago when it was ignored
by the world. Honestly done zero favours to this reading
audience and now the stock looks too expensive to speculate
with (or put another way, if I’d bought at 9p or so I’d be a seller at this price).
The Producer Basket
After 33 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 70.37% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1108 76.82 69.33 86.3%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 502.579 67.02 133.35 70.5%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1748.05 42.13 24.10 55.5%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 34.08 177.37 50.8%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 5.12 3.90 59.8%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 4.68 22.83 53.5%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 4.12 5.21 110.1%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 11.94 231.127 3.95 23.42 96.1%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 3.15 10.61 90.1%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 1.76 11.75 30.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 70.37%
On the week, the GDXJ did well and improved by 2.3%, while the GDX improved by just 0.4% and felt
keener drag from a gold price that dropped by 1.8%, mostly due to that tariff false flag story that popped the
gold price two Fridays ago but unwound Monday morning. There was as a result a notable drop in buying
cadence for the biggest PM stocks, but the lower market caps mostly ignored the headwind. As for our ten,
there were eight winners (NEM, B, FNV, BTG, EGO, OGC.to, NGD, SAND) and two losers (AEM, WDOFF) and
of those two, the biggest dropper was Wesdome (WDOFF down 9.96%). However, both Agnico (AEM down
1.7%) and Newmont (NEM up just 0.5%) showed the effects of the gold price downturn in the bigger money
vehicles. Overall, while not as impressive as the week before our Producer Basket still managed to add over
18
3% to its average and in the process beat the GDX benchmark by about 2.5%. A necessary improvement to
drag the deficit back into range, the out-performance driven by leverage in the juniors compared to the
seniors (with Wesdome the exception that proves the rule).
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
80% comparative to GDX control
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Franco-Nevada (FNV): Further to last weekend’s quick heads-up, FNV beat the street with its 2q25
earnings on Monday morning, delivering a U$1.24
EPS (adjusted) compared to the consensus number
of U$1.10. Unsurprisingly, the numbers included
several records for the company including record
revenues (U$369m) and a particularly impressive
adjusted EBITDA of U$366m. It’s also creeping close
to the 100k/qtr Gold Equivalent Ounce (GEO) level,
hitting 92,449 GEO in the quarter. That’s up over
10k GEO from the same quarter of 2024. Despite
these strong numbers, the market hummed and
hahed over whether to reward FNV before
eventually bidding the stock up a little, though as
seen in this ten-day chart the effect is net neutral
over the last two weeks.
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to): On Wednesday evening WDO reported its 2q25 earnings (11) and
here’s what the market thought of the numbers:
Ouch. Another disappointing reaction from a stock that could do little wrong in 2023 and 2024, so let’s take a
look at the usual suspect charts and try to work out why, but before diving in we remind readers that WDO
reports in Canadian Dollars, so that’s our default currency here and if it’s USD anywhere we’ll point it out.
Beginning with production and sales, which WDO had –pre-released and we knew already:
19
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
8%
ikn 6%
gdx control
4%
2%
0%
source: IKN calcs -2%
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
WDO: Gold production vs sales, per qtr
20
86382 00003 29903 00023 06772 00072 81263 02673 22333 00753 53044 00004 90154 00924 76594 00784 29654 00354 18724 00954
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000 25000 20000
15000
10000
5000
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
Ozt Au
Production
Sales
source: company filings
Those brought in revenues of C$208.548m, representing an average received price of C$4,539/oz
(U$3,279/oz), all those figures right in line with estimates.
As for costs, mine processing costs were in-line but depletion (i.e. non-cash was low compared to previous
quarters at C$17.195m. Put them together and the operating earnings of C$119.84m was in-line with
expectations.
WDO.to: Operations overview chart
107.67 222.96 974.7 555.48 279.09 714.6- 696.96 514.97 917.9- 22.201 318.55
804.64
29.001 971.58 347.51 8.721 290.38
707.44
58.641
291.88
66.85
16.281
364.69 841.68
26.781
468.39 457.39
55.802
217.88
48.911
WDO.to: Revenues
C$m
225
200 revenues
175 total op expenses
Op earnings
150
125
100
75 50
25
0
-25
1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25
source: company filings, IKN calcs
On a per-share basis (below left) that’s C$0.79 and in-line with market expectations. As usual at WDO,
operating earnings are a better straight line comparative than classic net earnings (below right), even though
they also came in-line at C$82.696m (EPS C$0.55).
2.34 3.75 8.45 0.55 4.84 0.64 9.36 5.76 5.58 7.66 9.16 8.16 0.57 7.67 6.48 7.96
2.201 9.001
8.721
9.641 6.281 6.781
845.802
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80
60
40
20
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
WDO.to: Costs overview
CAD$m 100
90
80
70
60
50 40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
CAD$m
other expenses
G&A
depletion
mining process costs
Source: WDO.to filings, IKN calcs
WDO.to: operating earnings per share
50.0 40.0- 70.0-
13.0
11.0
03.0 93.0 75.0 26.0 97.0
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00 -0.10
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
$ 100 WDO.to: Net Earnings
90 82.7
80 62.5
70 56.6
60 50 39.0
40 29.1
30
20 10.7 10 -0.3 2.4
0
- - 2 1 0 0 -5.0 -3.2
source: company financials/IKN calcs
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
As for the balance sheet, that showed expansion on both sides of the ledger, though we hasten to add that
the WDO debt position is not an issue and still at an easily manageable level. The company recently
expanded its revolving credit facility and we may see them tap into that in the next couple of quarters.
WDO.to: Assets
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
However, with both cash and working capital in good shape, it’s not an issue. These charts sho clear
improvement since Kiena came online, but it has to be said that the market was right to expect more than
this with gold doing what’s it’s done in 2025
Another place we see clear change in 2q25 is the cash spent on fixed assets, with C$84.5m net to that item.
This is fruit of another yellow flag for the company, as
the original plan was to have Kiena fully up and running
by now. Instead, we have a company now promising
better things as from 2026 (in much the same way as it
promised improvements to 2025 a year ago) and paying
money the market thought would stay as cash on its
balance sheet to do so.
The ConfCall was enlightening on this issue, with the
COO explaining that currently at Kiena there’s only one
mining horizon and the obvious cause of the throughput
bottleneck we mentioned and couple of weekends ago.
To that end, they’re now opening up a second zone (the
Presto Zone) which should see ore sent to processing as from Q3 (i.e. now). Then the Kiena Deep and that
much vaunted high grade material should see full access as from the end of this year, which means we can
start adding it into plans as from 2026. That sounds like a plan all right and as long as WDO delivers, we
should see its share price pick up going forward. However, here’s the problem:
In the 2023 YE MD&A, WDO guided 2025 at between 175,000 and 210,000 ounces
Then in the 2024 YE MD&A, it tightened guidance to between 190,000 and 210,000 oz
Now that range has gone back a step to 185,000 to 205,000 oz
21
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
$m 240 WDO.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
220
fixed 200
other current 180
cash 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
source: WDO.to filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
long term
current
WDO.to: Cash treasury per qtr
893.94 337.66 315.37 84.36 488.36 997.76 374.96 467.65 274.25 615.32 147.42 581.33 60.52 760.22 285.13 173.14 252.84 796.05 515.28
1.321
39.761 65.781
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60 40 20
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: company filings
DAC
fo
snoillim
220 WDO.to: Working Capital per qtr
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40 20 0
-20
-40
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
WDO: Fixed asset net additions, per qtr
6.01
9.8
6.61 8.21
8.4
1.611
6.23 2.33
6.22 1.41 0.42 1.02
0.2-
0.9-
1.6 1.0
3.41
3.2-
6.5 2.7
5.61
5.48
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
C$m
source: company filings
Why bother tightening the range when you can’t deliver on it just six months later. That smacks of
operational issues that they simply did now expect at Kiena in 2025 and it’s worth noting that the newly
adjusted guidance would have been worse if it weren’t for the way they’ve hit better grade than expected at
Eagle River. That’s added 5,000 oz to that mine’s guidance and saved some embarrassment.
Kiena was supposed to have done a minimum of 80,000 oz in 2024, it managed 77,472 oz, it’s now forecast
to miss its 2025 guidance by 10,000 oz. The doubts are growing and not least around the guidance for next
year. That, plus the extra capital spending going into the mine when it was supposed capex would have been
wrapped up by now (the AISC of over U$2,100/oz did not please the casual observer) shows where the
weakness to this story lays.
WDO: Gold production per year
22
75725 07405 73774 79785 42617 00027
88619 97209
058011
330271 000581 000591
25000
833321
240000
220000
200000 20000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 e5202 e6202
Oz Au
source: company data
Overall, WDO probably deserved getting yet another bump on the head Thursday morning when its shares
opened for business. The run it enjoyed in 2024, particularly the first half of last year that caught this desk on
the hop, baked a lot of operational smooth running assumptions into the share price and that hasn’t been
borne out by results. It’s not as if the company is in trouble, as the strong balance sheet and two high-
grading, profitable mines in first class jurisdictions states otherwise. However, it’s now under closer scrutiny
to justify its expensive share price and the market’s patience with a Kiena that’s taken a lot longer to get into
full gear than expected is wearing thin.
The TinyCaps List
After 33 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 26.66% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 13.56 0.10 -41.2%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 17.24 0.115 -20.7%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 6.43 0.065 -50.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 41.43 0.235 62.1%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 85.7 51.42 0.60 53.8%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 25.60 0.21 162.5%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 268.9 77.98 0.29 123.1%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 15.06 0.14 64.7%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 14.19 0.205 -62.7%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 15.28 0.105 -25.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 26.66%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps List managed to scrape together another
50% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
winning week, up by 0.62% even though there were just
40%
three week-over-week winners (EDG.v, MOG.v, VAU.v)
30%
and one unchanged stock to combat the weight of six
losers (BRO.v, CN.v, KDK.v, LMS.v, RDU.v, STS.v). The 20%
improvement in the overall average is almost entirely due 10%
to the big winner Mogotes (MOG.v up 23.4%), though the 0%
fact that most of the losers were down just half a cent or a -10%
cent helped as well. The biggest drop was taken by Radius
(RDU.v down 12.5%).
Mogotes Metals (MOG.v): Once again the big winner on the week for our list, MOG has done well to
position itself as one of the go-to tinycap speculative trades for copper this year. This move came on no news
(again) and the way the chart suddenly took off has “social media influencer” written all over it. The world
loves a good story almost as much as it does a momentum play.
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): Those readers who pay attention to the TinyCaps List section on a regular
basis (not that many of you) will know I’ve had my eye on this stock at this price for a while and to cut a long
story short, I’m now seriously thinking of opening a small speculative position in ELY. There seems to be a lot
here for a tiny price and with the recent addition of more “Aftermath People” to the board, there’s a lot of
geology technical ability gathering around this company.
Even if we discount the Timok East project, supposedly the company flagship and the reason it made the list
in the first place, the newsflow now coming on deck for its more established Novo Tlamino gold project
makes this worth a punt. With a previous 43-101 compliant resource of 670k oz gold, it’s not the biggest
thing in the world but when the carrying company is priced at under C$7m, it doesn’t have to be. We’re due a
PEA for Novo Tlamino by the end of 2025 and that means an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE)
comes before that, both of which could bring new eyeballs to this company and we even get a clue on what
to expect as the latest corporate presentation (12) includes this line: “At current gold prices NPV8 grows to
US$420m*. I even like the asterisk, as it goes to the line “In house estimate; Non-compliant NI 43-101”,
which skirts very close to the limits allowed by IIROC but tells us what we need to know. In other words,
discount Timok East, just run with the second string project and ELY is getting valued at 1.5% NPV.
Don’t say you weren’t warned about my decision to take a punt on this one to buy.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
23
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Regional politics
Bolivia: The next President is a right winger
The official result will take some time, but the initial fast count is usually very accurate and with 95% of votes
counted when taking this screenshot, we can call this first round election with a high level of confidence:
What you see on that screen is something of a shock result, but not one that will cause any heartache or pain
to anyone long Bolivia equities this weekend. The top five matter and they are:
Rodrigo Paz Pereira: 31.3%
Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga: 27.3%
Samuel Doria Medina: 20.2%
Andrónico Rodríguez: 8.0%
Manfred Reyes Villa:
The big surprise is seeing Rodrigo Paz with the most votes. The candidate from the Christian Democrat Party
(and ex-Senate member for the South Bolivia city of Tarija) seems to have taken a large amount of votes
away from the 3rd placed Samuel Doria Medina, who will surely be bitterly disappointed that he didn’t make
the run-off after leading nearly all polls to this week. Meanwhile, Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga will be happy with his
runner-up spot and confident to do well in the October run-off vote (which will be first ever in Bolivia).
Meanwhile the only lefty with a serious chance, Andrónico Rodríguez, came in fourth on 8% and another
candidate to suffer a collapse in support, Manfred Reyes Villa, came 5th.
Most Bolivia political watchers know a lot about “Tuto” Quiroga, a stalwart of the right wing and opposition to
Evo Morales for over two decades. However, the surprise package Rodrigo Paz is a lesser known entity and is
best classed as a centre-right politician these days. In his time he’s moved from the political hard right to his
current stance and that probably made his candidacy more attractive than expected for a Bolivian population
that was looking for an alternative to the “known quantities” on the standard right wing while also wanting to
reject the left wing MAS, its candidate and the policies and recent antics of Evo Morales. Indeed, in recent
years Rodrigo Paz has been a harsh critic of Morales, calling him psychopathic and demanding that he be
jailed for leading this year’s violent protests.
There are still several incognitos around this election process and there will be plenty of scrutiny about the
number of people who stayed away from voting or spoiled their ballot at the behest of Evo Morales. We’re
also likely to see an uptick in protests/roadblocks etc with the advent of two sworn enemies of Evo making it
to the second round, so this process is far from being cut and dried. As for those who may have decided to
trade this event, we reiterate the advice from last week and believe the wisest course of action would be to
bokk profits sooner (e.g. this week or next) rather than later, as the potential for more Evo-led disturbances
between now and the run-off vote is high. However, what we do know is that as long as the country doesn’t
descend into total chaos, the next President of Bolivia will be from the political right wing for the first time in
over two decades. That’s a good thing.
Argentina: Export taxes on mining products reduced to zero
I’m late to this (last week got busy), but we need to mention it because it’s good news for miners in
Argentina, be in no doubt. The “arancel” (export tax/levy) on metals has been long-time bone of contention
in Argentina’s mining sector for getting close to two decades. The “Right To Export” (as it’s officially caused)
was imposed by the Kirchner governments (Nestor, then CFK) and lifted by Mauricio Macri when coming to
24
power in 2015, one of the first election promises he fulfilled, only to reintroduce it in 2018 under pressure
from the IMF and his own treasury coffers. Exporters have been paying one way or another since then, but
on Friday August 8th the tax was repealed (13). “With this decision, the Government seeks "stimulate new
investments, open foreign markets and generate employment, strengthening the country's economic
development without compromising fiscal balance," the decree states in its grounds.” Mining currently
represents 1.2% of country GDP and with several projects already in development stage, not least the Filo
mine with as much as U$14Bn earmarked for its development, that’s bound to increase.
Market Watching
Plenty on Marimaca Copper (MARI.to)
We note the price move in our main copper exploreco/developer play Marimaca Copper (MARI.to) upstairs in
the Stock to Follow notes today, but we need more space to consider the moving parts at MARI today so
here we are in the potpourri that is Market Watching. Three things to cover:
The Pampa Medina drill assay NR last weejk which shot the share price higher
A preview of the Definitive Feasibility Study for the main Marimaca project, due to drop any
moment now.
The 2q25 financials, filed last week
We begin with last week’s star turn, as MARI released the next set of drill results from its exciting Pampa
Medina project. The NR headline was the verbose but eye-catching (14) “High-Grade Sediment Hosted
Mineralization Extended at Pampa Medina – 300m Western Step-out SMRD-16 Intersects 10m of 4.2% Cu
within 70m of 1.0% Cu” and the main event was hole SMRD-16, which got these highlight bullet points:
Highlights from SMRD-16 (true widths estimated to be 95% of reported intersection):
70m of 1.0% from 434m including:
10m of 4.2% Cu from 438m downhole within 30m of 2.1% Cu from 434m
Oxide and secondary sulphide
116m of 0.61% Cu from 516m including:
8m of 1.8% Cu from 528m (sulphide)
10m of 1.2% Cu from 568m (sulphide)
20m of 1.1% Cu from 612m (sulphide)
50m of 0.53% Cu from 744m including:
10m of 1.1% Cu from 782m (sulphide)
That’s a stonking return for a hole designed to test whether the geological theory it had developed to this
point held weight, namely that Pampa Medina was a “stratiform sediment hosted copper” (SSC) deposit and
for more on that angle, please see the main section of IKN843 dated July 13th. According to the theory, the
IP unconformity it had detected should indicate a large and continuous sedimentary unit of the type first
discovered in Central Europe, source of come of the biggest and most cost-effective copper mining known to
man. Please consider the entire NR and its visuals for more (the cross section is worthy of your eyeballs), but
if there’s one visual that matters it’s this
one, right. Here we see where MARI
drilled along a horizontal plane to test the
theory that this sedimentary unit extended
far beyond the known oxide mineralization
zone (green outline in centre) and sure
enough, the location of hole SMRD-16 to
the left hit pay dirt.
See below for a close-up of the focal point
of the map, showing hole 16 to the left
(as well as the lesser hits from hole 15 to
the East). That double-headed arrow isn’t
just there for show, it gives an idea of
25
what MARI now thinks it has under the ground at Pampa Medina.
The C-suite comments in last week’s NR were led by the company’s VP Exploration, Sergio Rivera. Again, well
worth reading them all but I’m going to excerpt the one small section that stood out for my eyes:
“We currently have no observable reasons to indicate that mineralization would not be continuous
while the sedimentary unit exists and, as a result, we see enormous potential to both the north and
west of the current drilling.”
Back in IKN843 we used one of the MARI visuals to make a guesstimate on the size and contained copper
potential of Pampa Medina. With hole 16 confirming not only mineralization, but several sedimentary layers
containing economic amounts of copper, we may have got the extent in the ballpark but overall tonnage may
fall short of our ciggypack calc. In IKN843 we used a guess of 20m of 2% copper average rock, that’s
starting to look high for the average grade but low for widths and the result makes for scary calculations.
Feel free to check back for more details, but here’s how we cobbled together a resource estimate in IKN843:
}
Length: 3,000m
Width: 3,400m
Total manto mineralization inside envelope: 70%
Depth: 20m
Specific gravity: 2.7
Grade: 2% copper
Therefore:
3,000 x 3,400m x 20m = 204m m3
204m x 70% = 142.8m m3
142.8m x 2.7 = 385.56m tonnes of mineralization
385.56m x 2% = 7.7112m tonnes copper in-situ
Or if you prefer, 17Bn lbs copper.
IKN848 back, now to try again adjusting the inputs to reflect what we saw in last week’s NR. Before doing so,
we stress that this is as much as a guess as in IKN843; The objective isn’t to nail down an accurate resource,
but to provide a reasonable framework to provide a base from which to work. We stick with the assumptions
for length and width, but this time raise the mineralization assumption to 90% (the visuals in the NR help
with this, as do the comments from VPEx Rivera. We now assume a depth for the resource rock of 40m
which is still almost certainly on the low side, but that’s okay. SG stays at 2.7X, while this time we drop the
average copper grade to 1%.
Length: 3,000m
Width: 3,400m
Total manto mineralization inside envelope: 90%
Depth: 40m
Specific gravity: 2.7
Grade: 1% copper
Therefore:
3,000 x 3,400m x 40m = 408m m3
204m x 90% = 367.2m m3
367.2m x 2.7 = 991.144m tonnes of mineralization
385.56m x 1% = 9.91m tonnes copper in-situ
Or if you prefer, 21.85Bn lbs copper. In other words, even if we assume a far lower overall average copper
grade, the increase in tonnage and the understanding that mineralization is indeed highly uniform inside the
envelope, overall contained copper moves up to nearly twenty-two billion pounds. And that’s a lot of copper.
And that’s just Pampa Medina, because we need to remember that the Marimaca flagship project is about to
drop its Feasibility Study (DFS) on the world, a moment that’s been a major milestone moment since your
26
author decided to buy shares of MARI back at the start of 2024. That’s the document we assume will start
the marketing and bidding process for MARI (or at least its project) as the most obvious exit strategy for the
company, though of course CEO Locke and his team will insist they’re capable of tooling up the company to
build its own mine (in poker, they call it “representing”).
Our final stop on this extended and necessary look at MARI is its 2q25 financials, filed last week. Albeit
growing and advanced, MARI is still essentially an exploreco so we can keep tabs on just about everything by
watching the balance sheet movements so here we go with the quick hack. First the easy one and liabilities,
they remain at the optimum for a company of this ilk; virtual zero and long may that continue.
MARI.to: Liabilities per qtr
40
35
30
25 20
15
10
5
0
Now for assets: Fixed assets have grown as the company pays off its optioning-in deal and has also added
Pampa Medina as from 3q24, but aside that there’s little sign here of the true value of the company. More
important is the current asset situation, which at C$24.329m, plus working cap at C$25.597m, are in a
healthy place. For the record, those numbers are very close to our previous estimates of C$25m cash and
$26m working cap. I'm not mentioning that to look clever (though will admit it pleased me to see reality
versus estimates when plugging in the numbers last week), it's more to state that MARI is spending cash at
the rate we expected and that's a good thing. For the record, the company expects current treasury will
cover all activities and expenses for the next 12 months. That's more than enough time, as I'd be surprised if
MARI makes it out of 2026 without coming under offer from a bigger mining company. So a quick check on
the share count that’s not going to move up much now its recent placement is closed and we’re done here.
Bottom line: I wish all my investments were as pleasant and predicable as Marimaca Copper (MARI.to) and
with the DFS about to drop, we’re entering an important and busy period for the company. Pampa Medina is
now adding serious value to the equity and potentially expanding the pool of buyers to include large cap
copper companies as well. Financially solid and ready to market, there’s no easier hold in my portfolio and an
eventual C$18 share price is more than logical from here.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) 2q25 financials
Another exploreco/developer that delivered its 2q25 financials last week, it would be sorely remiss if we didn’t
cast out eye over the main financial points of our Top Pick Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) today, so here we go and once
again, same as MARI, this shouldn’t take too long as we can cover the need-to-know just with the balance
sheet tracking charts. In this case, as RIO.v reports in US Dollars that is our default currency unless stated.
27
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
MARI.to: Assets, per qtr U$m
LT liabs
current liabs
source: company filings
724.74 349.95 239.25 956.35
266.55
984.75 547.95 128.06 2.45 967.86 332.67 901.76 953.56 901.76 295.07 346.37 339.17 173.47 274.67 439.28 419.68 147.29 42.79
140
120
100
80 60
40
20
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m fixed
other current
cash
source: company filings
MARI.to: Working Capital per qtr
6.01- 6.32- 4.7- 3.8-
1.9 2.14 4.73 7.92
1.92
2.41 7.8 2.71 9.81 3.61 6.11 1.32 5.22 9.81 4.81
0.03
7.22 2.51 6.52
45
40
35 30 25 20 15 10 5
0
-5
-10 -15
-20
-25
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m MARI.to Shares Out
source company filings
853.46 853.46 853.46 853.46
146.37 737.78 39.78 39.78 820.88 811.88 622.88 622.88 622.88 622.88 32.88 288.29 709.29 662.39 662.49 20.101 20.101 71.101 94.601
120
110
100 90 80 70 60 50
40
30
20
10
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: company filings
First up is the assets chart (below left): As the company is now capitalizing works at its development-stage
Fenix project (as it darned well should) we're seeing the he fixed asset column rise quickly, from U$105m as
at end 3q24 to U$174.81m today. We're also seeing cash arriving to its books, with the two major changes
coming from the equity raise of 4q24 and the money now flowing from the streaming deal with Wheaton
(WPM). Indeed, another U$50m arrived at RIO.v after the end of Q2, as per the deal.
The money is being spent as a good clip, but we also note the bulge in "other current" for 2q25, that's the
bonus of the incentive programs in Chile showing on a company financials, as RIO.v gets to claim back sales
tax (IVA) to the tune of U$21.172m as at end 2q25. Also, unlike other countries that come to mind Chile
tends to reimburse these funds quickly.
RIO.v:Assets, per qtr
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Meanwhile, liabilities (above right) are now expanding along with the assets book as RIO draws down the
WPM facility and ask serious questions if they don’t, because it would mean something has gone wrong with
the plan. However, as the next chart (below left) shows working capital is in good shape and with the
scheduled arrival of funds as well as a first pour date that's not so far away in the future, RIO.v shouldn't
have any liquidity issues as long as it sticks to the established timeline (another reason why the stock price
rallied on news of the first ore placement on pad last week). Finally, shares out (below right) show the effects
of the equity raises, though we aren't expecting any further dilution.
And that’s about it, a quick and cheerful check-up of the financial state of play at our Top Pick. After the lost
two years due to its EIA denial, RIO.v is firmly back on track and while you only need to look at the share
price improvement to know that, it’s good to see the activity flow through its financials as well. We look
forward to the media-friendly first pour moment, then real commercial production declared in 2026. After
that, the sky is the limit for a company doing the right thin at the right time.
Conclusion
IKN848 is done, we end with just a couple of bullet points:
In cash for the moment, but if I grow a pair and get some backbone, that might change. However, I
don’t mind admitting that I’m watching the macro developments closely, concerned our glorious
28
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m RIO.v: Liabilities overview
100
fixed 90
other current 80
cash+ST 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings
RIO.v: Working capital
69.31
92.9 19.9 64.1 60.3 80.0- 68.22 54.91 63.52 11.11 78.0 97.3 16.3 11.7 21.5 62.4 34.2
72.61 97.31
47.53 74.43
95.81
50
45
40
35
30
25
20 15 10
5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m RIO.v: Shares out
source: company filings
34.181 83.281 71.091 17.091 95.991 78.991 43.452 43.452 96.652 15.752 15.752 65.752 46.752 83.852 57.852 32.952 75.952 6.813 6.813
73.624 95.624 85.724
500
450
400
350
300
250
200 150 100
50
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
M s/o
source: company filings
leaders might do something to make gold less popular. When the entire financial world sees the US
Dollar going lower, it’s the epitome of the crowded trade.
Though not my usual method, I’m not against buying a basket of stocks using a “strategy play”
rationale and if so, I won’t feel the need to know every little detail about them. WWAD is enough.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if
required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2025/minera-alamos-rsquo-previously-announced-bought-deal-private-placement-is-fully-allocated/
(2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpTWhHHaitk
(3) https://westredlakegold.com/west-red-lake-gold-expands-high-grade-zone-in-south-austin-with-36-85-g-t-au-over-6-9m-92-39-g-t-au-
over-2m-and-8-79-g-t-au-over-15-5m/
(4) https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20250813.pdf
(5) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/high-grade-sediment-hosted-mineralization-103000664.html
(6) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-provides-corporate-and-operational-update/
(7) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/zambia-mine-catastrophe-could-be-30-times-worse-than-reported
(8) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/zambia-copper-output-at-439644-metric-tons-in-h1-mines-minister-says/
(9) https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:AP:05b234af-bd0a-420d-bbc3-ca0fc21f8277
(10) https://www.herculesmetals.com/news-release/?qmodStoryID=8276414408622207
(11) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2025/Wesdome-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Financial-
Results/default.aspx
(12) https://wp-electrumdiscovery-2024.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/2025/07/ELY-July-2025-.pdf
(13) https://aduananews.com/en/el-gobierno-argentino-reduce-a-0-los-derechos-de-exportacion-para-productos-mineros/
(14) https://marimaca.com/regulatory-news/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
29
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
30
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
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Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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