6 The IKN Weekly, issue 847 — Aug 10, 2025
The IKN Weekly
Week 847, August 10th 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, US Macro and tariffs and inflation and stuff, Minera Alamos
and risk management.
Fundamental Analysis: The Minera Alamos (MAI.v) pivot.
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO), AbraSilver (ABRA.to), West Red Lake Gold
(WRLG.v), Gold Royalty Corp (GROY), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Orecap
(OCI.v), Rio2 Lid (RIO.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse), Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Franco-Nevada (FNV), B2Gold (BTG) and OceanaGold (OGC.to),
Sandstorm Gold (SAND).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Mogotes Metals (MOG.v), A snapshot opinion of the ten TinyCap list
stocks after eight months.
Regional Politics: Chile: The candidates talk mining Bolivia: The election round one is next weekend.
Market Watching: Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) 2q25 financials.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m selling some of my shares in Minera Alamos (MAI.v) art some point in the week ahead. It’s been an
overweight position for several years and even with the planned sale, it will be a large long position in my
portfolio, but after considering the news from last week it’s time to find another place for some of the cash
and diversify inside the junior mining sector.
Also, as from next weekend Rio2 Ltd will be our only Top Pick recommendation, as due to the partial sale
Minera Alamos is dropped into the main “Recommended Stocks” section of the Stocks to Follow list. Full
details in today’s main Fundamentals section and for context, I urge you to read today’s intro note “Minera
Alamos and risk management” before diving in.
In today’s edition
The main event today is all about Minera Alamos (MAI.v) but, unlike the upbeat note we published on
the stock very recently in IKN845, this has been a tougher one to write. The news last week that MAI.v
was buying the Pan mine and a couple of projects from Equinox Gold (EQX) may have been a surprise,
but it was generally good news. However, the way in which MAI raises the capital saw seven types of
puking among the market and the stock dropped 20% on the news.
Therefore we clear the decks in today’s edition and dedicate the main fundies section (as well as other
bits and pieces) to the news, as well as my personal decision to make a partial sale of my position and
drop the stock down from Top Pick to the main recommended list.
If it weren’t for MAI.v it would have been a very good week for the portfolio, with the charge led by
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) once again, my best call and stock pick this year. We do it briefly, but we
cover its 2q25 financials in Market Watching.
The copper sector has forgotten all about the Comex price dump for the metal of just two weeks ago
and there were all sorts of juniors picking up bids last week.
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US Macro and tariffs and inflation and stuff
The main data event this week comes 8:30am on Tuesday, it’s the US CPI report and here’s good old Bill
McBride to tell us more (1):
The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up
2.8% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.0% YoY.
Calculated Risk also quotes a couple of big firm analyst notes on what we can expect, so let’s run them here
as well:
From Goldman Sachs economists:
We expect a 0.33% increase in July core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of
3.08% (vs. +3.0% consensus). We expect a 0.27% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), reflecting
higher food prices (+0.3%) but lower energy prices (-0.6%). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.31% increase in
core PCE in July.
...
Over the next few months, we expect tariffs to continue to boost monthly inflation and forecast monthly core CPI
inflation between 0.3-0.4%. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further this year,
reflecting shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labor markets.
From BofA:
We forecast headline CPI rose by 0.24% m/m in July, and core CPI increased by 0.31% m/m. If correct, core CPI
would increase to 3.1% y/y from 2.9%. Tariffs likely drove an acceleration in goods price hikes despite further
declines in vehicle prices. Meanwhile, a rise in airfares should contribute to an uptick in core services ex housing
inflation.
In other words, Wall St thinks we’re about to see the effects of the Trump Tariffs start to kick in as from this
month, with a slight uptick in inflation data but a significant drop in economic activity at the same time.
Stagflation is not a good word, ladies and gents. It also comes as the Oval Office and the fed continue their
battle over base rates, with Trump about to appoint a like-thinking body to fill an empty chair at the FOMC
and the current members coming out and telling us there’s no reason in their view to drop rates. That Jerome
Powell August 22nd Jackson Hole speech is beginning to look like a must-watch moment in the financial year.
Minera Alamos and risk management
“When the facts change, I change my
mind. What do you do, sir?”
John Maynard Keynes (attr)
This isn’t the first time (or the second, or third) I’ve mentioned this subject, but considering the news out of
Minera Alamos this week and my subsequent trade decision, it’s worth giving it another airing today.
The IKN Weekly and specifically its Stocks to Follow section runs on what I’m doing with my own money,
which is what I prefer to call the “least worst” method. At first sight, you might think it’s the “best” solution
(and it’s certainly better than the majority of stock tip sheets and their “sponsored coverage” business
model), but take more than a moment to think it through and the limitations show. Yes for sure, using my
personal portfolio movements for decisions keeps me honest with myself and aligned with the readership, but
ultimately I make my decisions on what is best for best portfolio and my personal circumstances and they are
not yours. Neither is it merely the size of your personal net wealth compared to hers or his or mine, check
out this little list because, while you may identify or even coincide with a few of the following, you’re not
going to be match: I’m 58 years old, I have two kids in university, two others at the other end of the scale at
three years and one year old, I own our home outright with no mortgage, no bank loans, some savings, no
car by choice (that will have to change in a couple of years, sadly), an ex-wife who gets her monthly, a
mother-in-law who needs financial support, a kitchen that’s about to see a five figure amount spent on it to
bring it kicking and screaming into the modern world and we could continue with this increasingly silly stream
of consciousness but you should get the point by now. All these things matter, they affect one’s investment
decisions at any given moment and your longer-term strategy. Just as one example, if you’re reading this as
a 28 year old emerging executive you can literally and psychologically afford to take more risks because if
you lose everything, you have plenty of years to get up and do it all again. Fuddy-duddy old-boy me takes on
less risk than the Mark of three decades ago, that’s a given and it means risk management is the number one
consideration in my buy/add/hold/sell/avoid/short decisions for any given trade.
And best way to balance risk is at a portfolio level, which brings me to today and the Minera Alamos pivot,
sprung upon us last week. We can agree or disagree with the decision, or kvetch and moan about the share
and warrant dilution, maybe somewhere down the line we get to applaud the move and watch as MAI shares
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blast higher and higher (and I certainly hope so, I’m going to stay long the stock after all), but what this
move by MAI has done is alter my own personal risk profile. In one fell swoop, the portfolio is out of kilter
and due to that, I’ll make my personal decision to adjust my personal portfolio for my personal ends. The
repetition is deliberate, ladies and gents, I’m trying to get across that my trade decision should be separated
from my considered view of Minera Alamos (or any other stock, for that matter) when it gets down to brass
tacks and you decide what you’re going to do. I am not you, you are not me, we have different goals and
criteria and you may end up thinking “Wow, I think it’s time to buy MAI.v shares for the first time!” after
reading today’s main fundies section.
To wrap up and for the record, I’m fully aware that not having to worry about money for food, clothing and a
roof is a highly privileged position in the 21st century and the height of tone-deafness is the middle class
gringo going around and complaining about “having too much cash in their stock portfolio”. Oh poor, poor
me. Living in LatAm and walking around with your eyes open is more than enough to get you to count your
blessings, which is my final attempt to add context to today’s edition of The IKN Weekly.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
The Minera Alamos (MAI.v) pivot
“The inactive investor who takes up an obstinate attitude about his
holdings and refuses to change his opinion merely because
facts and circumstances have changed is the one
who in the long run comes to grievous loss.”
John Maynard Keynes, 1924
Preamble: My Thursday
Woke up, got out of bed, dragged a comb across my head. Did breakfast things for small mouths, checked
the overnight prices (gold and copper holding steady, it was before that gold tariff stupidity), read through
the junior mining NRs that had started to show. Then a push alert on my phone, Minera Alamos halted.
Interesting. Pinged Doug Ramshaw on WhatsApp, who replied (paraphrasing) we were going to see a
complicated NR with plenty of moving parts and we could talk after the news. That meant it wasn’t the most
obvious news of a permit amendment for Santana in Mexico. Put it on the back burner, did other things,
watched the open, then the news dropped (2):
Toronto, Ontario – August 7, 2025 – Minera Alamos Inc. (“Minera Alamos” or the “Company”) (TSXV: MAI) is
pleased to announce that it has entered into a definitive agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) on August 7,
2025 to acquire Calibre USA Holdings Ltd. (“Calibre USA”) from Equinox Gold Corp. (“Equinox”) for total
consideration of US$115 million (the “Transaction”), subject to adjustment. Calibre USA holds a 100% economic
interest in the producing Pan Gold Mine (“Pan”), Gold Rock Project (“Gold Rock”) and Illipah Project (“Illipah” and
together with Pan and Gold Rock, the “Nevada Assets”) located in Nevada, U.S.
Hooboy. Got back in touch with Doug, who was kind enough to set up a Zoom meeting with the incoming
Chair of MAI.v, Jason Kosec, and CEO Darren Koningen. Watched what happened to the MAI stock price
when it came out of halt, tried hard to keep and open mind, checked out the brand new corporate
presentation giving an overview of the deal (3), then a couple of hours’ later it was the Zoom meeting. That
was an hour and a bit, when it had finished my brain was full of the optimistic and positive talk and vision of
the company around the deal. So after welcoming the nice builder man for our scheduled meeting about the
kitchen renovation and paying the initial deposit (see above), there was only one thing for it; counteract the
effusive optimism out of the MAI.v C-suite with the deliberate decision to bathe in the retail negativity about
this deal on social media. I therefore spent the afternoon reading as many opinions and messages as possible
on TwitterX and other social media, swapped mails with fellow holders and talked a lot about the financing
for this deal, particularly those darned warrants. As 90% of opinions were variations of “I hate this!”, it did
the job nicely. Suitably depressed I went to bed, waking up Friday morning with a more balanced view of the
news and what it all means. That’s the preamble, time to start today’s main fundamentals section on Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), but before we get on with the real work, nobody really knows whether JM Keynes said,
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”, but we do know the longer quote above
is his. It’s from a book he wrote over a century ago.
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Announcing a pivot
We’re just two weeks on from “Minera Alamos (MAI.v) rallies on permitting news”, the main Fundamental
Analysis note published in IKN845, dated July 27th. That was an upbeat report and looked forward to better
times ahead for the company, with the Mexico permitting bottleneck showing hard evidence of the persistent
talk about Sheinbaum’s admin improving things for miners in her country. Today’s report has a different tone,
as the news that dropped on Thursday has changed the Minera Alamos (MAI.v) story significantly. We’re
going to consider why that might be and what it means, but before that please note that during my Zoom
meeting with MAI CEO Koningen and MAI Chair Kosec last week, I repeated the well known market adage
“When the story changes, run away” on several occasions. Above all to get their reaction and pushback, but
also to make it clear that this wasn’t the “continuation of the MAI story” they were trying to frame it as, not
in my opinion at least (and not in the opinion of nearly everyone else watching from the outside).
Let us be crystal clear: Twelve months ago, MAI was a 100% Mexican proposition. Struggling under the yoke
of the de facto permit ban, but Mexican all the same with one mine in operation and three projects waiting
their turn. Then came the decision to buy Sabre Gold and add Copperstone to the portfolio. The price wasn’t
heavy, the deal made sense for both sides and the addition of a USA project allowed MAI to get on and do
what they’re good at doing, i.e. building mines and putting them into operation. However, as from last week
the game changed and calling it some sort of “natural progression” of the same MAI story is only going to
work under hypnosis. The company has just added a working mine in The USA, a fully permitted project
ready for development in The USA along with a third project in the same package, also in The USA, to its
asset book. In the same breath, it now considers its only working operation in Mexico as “non-core”. As for
the cost, the purchase of the Equinox assets comes at 59% of last weekend’s market cap (approx U$194m).
Or 79% of this weekend’s market cap, what with the bath taken by the share price on Thursday so let’s call it
80% (here are deal lawyers to pay(, but whatever way you slice it, that’s a big step from the 76.5m shares it
emitted to buy Sabre/Copperstone. Long story short, this time last year MAI was a Mexico junior mining
story, once this deal closes it’s a USA junior mining story with a couple of interesting projects in Mexico. So
here’s a message for Jason Kosec: If you defend your deal and explain the benefits, the bright future and the
growth plans of New Minera Alamos that’s fine by me, in fact I wouldn’t want it any other way, but stop
insulting our intelligence by trying to make out this is part of some organic pathway and a natural progression
of the same story as before. It’s a pivot, period.
How and why the deal happened
Now for background to the deal, all of which I learned last week (for the record, I had no idea or even an
inkling this was about to happen, in case you had any lingering doubts). Here is a potted timeline as gleaned
from the conversations, based on facts and presented in good faith but in my own words:
In Q4, MAI announced the acquisition of Sabre Gold and its Copperstone project.
At the time, MAI was still on the look-out for other projects that would allow it to move forward.
Cut to February this year and the Equinox Gold (EQX) buyout of Calibre Mining (CXB.to). It immediately
became clear that EQX cared most about 1) Valentine and 2) its Nicaragua operations and once people
started doing the math, it became obvious EQX would want to improve its position once the deal was
closed by selling its Nevada asset package (i.e. Pan, Gold Rock and Illipah). In other words, EQX was a
willing seller and the Nevada assets disposal was an integral part of its strategy when buying Calibre.
The guys at MAI knew all the EQX Nevada assets well and thought they’d be a good fit for their skill set.
The attraction of Pan as a working and profitable mine was obvious, but the fact Gold Rock is now fully
permitted and would come as an obvious alternative to grow production base quickly was also attractive.
Cut to June and the closing of the EQX/CXB deal. Driven by incoming Chair Jason Kosec, MAI got in touch
with EQX and managed to secure a one-month exclusivity deal with EQX on the Nevada assets. That
exclusivity ran out on Friday, August 9th and that’s a detail to keep in mind.
MAI did its DD, was satisfied with what it saw and the days ticked by, also got to know that if its
exclusivity deal with EQX lapsed there were other groups interested in buying Pan from EQX. In other
words, last week MAI had to put-up or shut-up. With lines of financing secured from incoming groups,
they pulled the trigger.
And that’s where we are today. As as the subject is now broached, it’s time to consider the aspect of the
announced deal that has stuck most in the craw of MAI.v shareholders, namely the price MAI has to pay for
Pan, Gold Rock and Illipah. We quote the NR:
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The final financing package is expected to consist of the Offering, or a combination of the Offering and a gold pre-
pay arrangement with respect to Pan. The net proceeds from such financing package will be used to pay the Cash
Consideration, with any remainder to be used for working capital required to support operations at Pan.
So far so good, and we’re told the asking price will get covered by a combination of cash from an equity
raise, shares to EQX plus a gold pre-pay facility with a third party company. This from further down the NR:
Total consideration for the Transaction is $115 million (the “Total Consideration”), subject to adjustment, payable
on the Closing Date. The Total Consideration includes $90 million of Cash Consideration and $25 million in Equity
Consideration, subject to adjustment. The Equity Consideration will be paid through the issuance of an aggregate
of 96,802,816 Minera Alamos common shares to Equinox at a price of C$0.355 per common share. Equinox will
not hold more than 9.99% of the issued and outstanding common shares of the Company upon completion of the
Transaction.
That’s a reasonable price for the Nevada USA assets. However, it also means MAI has to find a serious
amount of cash and that’s where things get heavy for current shareholders:
Minera Alamos has entered into an agreement with Stifel Canada, as lead underwriter and sole bookrunner (the
“Lead Underwriter”), on behalf of a syndicate of underwriters (the “Underwriters”), in connection with a bought deal
private placement offering of 309,860,000 subscription receipts (the “Subscription Receipts”) at a price of C$0.355
per Subscription Receipt (the “Issue Price”) for gross proceeds of approximately C$110 million (the “Offering”).
The size of the Offering may be increased in certain circumstances by up to an additional C$25 million.
And…
“…one unit consisting of one Minera Alamos common share and one warrant, with each warrant exercisable to
purchase one Minera Alamos common share at a price of C$0.705 for a period of 36 months following the
completion of the Offering…”
The bought deal is for C$110m and priced at C$0.355 per unit, with each unit having one share and a full
warrant priced at C$0.705. In fact, the bought deal overallotment has already been fully filled, so that means
gross proceeds of C$135 and 380.28m units sold. That’s a lot of paper, ladies and gentlemen. So on the cash
side of the ledger, we have this:
Gross proceeds of C$135m = net proceeds of C$126.9m = U$92.6m approx
Gold pre-pay facility of between U$20 and U$25m, this is to be confirmed but that was the range given to
me by Kosec and Koningen during the Zoom meeting
96.803m shares directly to EQX, held on a four month lock-up (i.e. until approx January 2026 once the
deal closes)
Depending on how much it takes on the gold pre-pay, that will allow MAI to fully pay the cash component of
the U$115m ticket price and leave the company with around U$22.6m to U$27.6m to add to its current
treasury position (let’s guess C$5m as at end 2q25, see below for more on that). So for our house
assumption, I’ll take the lower of the two numbers for the pre-pay facility, do the forex and guesstimate that
once MAI has its new mine and projects, it has around C$36m treasury to deploy. That’s a healthy enough
number and one that only improves as the positive free cash flow comes from the Pan mine operation.
However, it also means the share base changes significantly:
Current shares out: 576.5m
New shares for EQX: 96.803m
New shares from bought deal: 380.28m
Total pro-forma shares out: 1,053.6m
(one point zero five three billion shares out)
Then:
Warrants: 380.28m
Options: 27.7M
Total fully diluted: 1,461.6m
Yes indeed, that’s a lot of paper. It also begs
the question as to why this deal happened the
way it did. We know MAI had the opportunity to
secure the EQX Nevada assets and we know it
had exclusivity on the deal until last Friday, but we also know that share base dilution is eye-watering and the
full warrant attached to the bought deal units add insult to injury for current shareholders of Minera Alamos.
It was that dilution, above all, that caused the share price to do what it did last week (chart above).
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However, MAI could have refused the deal at the available terms, an obvious question to ask the MAI C-suite
during our meeting on Thursday. It has Copperstone with a valid PEA and a straightforward path to
production, it has an operating mine in Mexico and as we pointed out as recently as IKN845 two weeks ago,
all it would need is movement on either the Santana permit amendment or the Cerro de Oro EIA and MAI
shares would be off to the races again.
When asked about that, the MAI people told me that, in essence, time had run out. MAI as a corporate entity
had reached an inflection point and the deal as offered, including the cash that would come and capitalize a
thin treasury, would transform the company’s fortunes and allow it to do what it wanted to do. It had
shopped around for a deal to finance the Copperstone build-out and without being totally rebuffed, found
that the terms offered for a project with just a PEA were way too expensive. Its cash position wasn’t good
enough to go it alone and the reduced production level at Santana wasn’t enough to cover its project plans.
This was confirmed later when I conversed with company president Doug Ramshaw, who told me that the Q2
financials due out at the end of August would have shown a weakened financial situation without this deal in
place. The implication of that is clear and it’s one of the more concerning details of last week’s
announcement, it means that the Plan B initiative at Santana hasn’t worked in the way expected. To refresh
memories, in order to get around the issues caused by the lack of permit amendment, in early 2024 MAI
decided to re-tool at Santana and move to a “Plan B”, using the available and permitted space as well as it
could, re-stacking leach pads and running a reduced rate operation that, while not a king’s ransom, would
provide enough cash flow to keep the company ticking over while the wait for permits continued.
Therefore, it seems that MAI had backed itself into a corner and the deal as offered last week was as good as
they could achieve under the circumstances. And that is troubling. During the meeting, chair Kosec quite
rightly said that institutions the size of Ruffer, Franklin Templeton and Merck were on-board with the plan
and had agreed to take their corners of the bought deal, but they were sticking their necks out somewhat by
writing seven-figure cheques for a small company trying to swallow an acquisition that’s over 50% of its
market cap. And frankly, the money people have a very valid point. Therefore they demanded their pound of
flesh and that is the full warrant attached to the financing.
The bottom line on “how and why” this deal: MAI has had to take a serious hit to its share count in order to
do this deal and while the terms, including that full warrant which everyone hates (including the c-suiters),
certainly favour the fresh money coming in, the company is upbeat about what it means for the future.
Putting my rose-tinted specs on for a moment, here’s what we can expect in the next couple of years if
things go to plan:
A closed deal and a company with immediate and meaningful profits from the Pan operation (see below).
MAI will move to consolidate its share count, with a 10-for-1 rollback. That will put the share count at an
IKN-estimated 105.3m.
With the rollback done, MAI will move to list on the TSX main board and apply for a Nasdaq listing. This
is a good idea.
MAI expects to be able to increase production at Pan fairly easily. It has identified the lack of crusher
capacity as the main bottleneck and estimates that with an investment of no more than U$2m it will be
able to increase throughput from the current approximate 40,000 oz gold/year rate to around 55,000 oz
gold/year.
Unbeknown to many, while the closure process for the Equinox/Calibre deal was ongoing its Gold Rock
project received its permits from the US government. Now fully permitted, Gold Rock makes for an
obvious growth project.
Meanwhile, instead of building Copperstone immediately, it plans to get the project to Feasibility Study
(FS) level. The costs aren’t expected to change much, the cost of conducting a full FS isn’t too heavy
either for this size of project, but once complete it will be able to move forward and build the mine in
second half of 2026 on better terms (or from cash flow)
That’s not a bad plan. As for the Mexico assets, they now wait in the wings. Clearly, MAI last week also made
a strategy decision to wrest its fate from the hands of the Mexican government and take control of the
company’s future again. Also fair enough, but we also know that permits for Santana and/or for Cerro de Oro
may appear at any time. On this subject, I quizzed CEO Darren Koningen on Thursday (he spends a lot of his
time in Mexico and has his ear to the ground), who agreed that permits could start coming more regularly
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now that Heliostar had received the necessary permits for its San Augustin open pit mine. A small mine for
sure, but permits for an open pitter all the same. He went on toi opine that permit amendments were more
likely to show up sooner than full EIAs, no shock or surprise there and we’ve always assumed the Santana
leach pad amendment papers would cme before a Cerro de Oro EIA, but in any case and either way, as soon
as permits arrive MAI will be able to move on more than one front. For example, it’s perfectly feasible to
imagine mines getting build at Gold Rock or Copperstone at the same time as Cerro de Oro or La Fortuna, it
all depends on what the Mexican government decide to do. However, with a healthy cash treasury MAI will
have the flexibility to work on several fronts at the same time, instead of a linear bootstrapping of projects as
envisaged up to last week.
That’s what you’re getting for the share count dilution and for allowing in big money at “pound of flesh”
terms, fellow shareholder. A pivoted MAI with meaningful production and free cash flow, as well as
production growth opportunities in the near, medium and long term from its USA assets and the real upside
still on hand from its Mexico projects once the permitting situation improves. With that, I now take of fthe
rose-tinted specs and we move to consider the Pan mine and what it can do for us.
An overview of the Pan mine and the Gold Rock project
We’re not going to mention Illipah much today, instead considering it a third string project that can add
growth and value further down the line. We will, however, mention that when Fiore bought Illipah (from
Waterton for stock and a small cash component) added it into its asset book, then-CEO Tim Warman was
very enthusiastic about the project and considered it one of the best long-term opportunities in the region.
Now for Pan: Longer-suffering readers of The IKN Weekly may recall our previous
encounter with the Pan mine and indeed Gold Rock project, as back in 2019 we managed
to trade successfully the then-owner of the mine, Fiore Gold (ex-F.v). Also, once the Covid
pandemic scare was over Fiore was one of the stocks we bought into the upturn and while
that wasn't a big win, it still made some money. After our last trade closed Fiore went on
to buy the Illipah project before eventually getting bought out itself, Calibre using some of
the money it had earned by appeasing the worst dictatorship in Latin America and paying
C$151m to diversify into The USA.
The Pan gold mine has seen operations on-and-off for over a hundred years. For its recent
history, it was brought out of mothballs in the early 2010’s by Midway Gold, a company
that made a pig’s ear of bringing it online and eventually folded in 2015. The mine was
bought for a song by one of the people from Midway who still believed in the asset and put
back into Mothballs before Fiore Gold came along. At first Fiore went through some typical
“Frank Giustra secures his capital” share trading and dropped like a stone after being
hyped to the world, but to its credit the company had Tim Warman at its helm, who did all
the right things and made Pan into a real success. That’s what Calibre bought and since
then, Pan has continued on the right and profitable path set out by Warman’s good work. Here come some
details, starting with the Pan resource gold numbers as presented by MAI in its NR last week:
For what it’s worth, if you go to the EQX website they give slightly different numbers for Pan, but please read
on as in the opinion of this desk, that’s a minor detail. Considering the overall contained gold number of
258,000 oz, the typical recovery rate for the mine (chart below) and the proposed 40,000 oz gold per year
production forecasts, that resource currently gives Pan around 4½ years of mine life. That’s not much, but of
all the moving parts of this deal this is one of the least concerning. The mineralization at Pan is nowhere near
depletion and during nearly all the mine’s history, operators have successfully replaced mined ounces with
further exploration and resource definition campaigns. There is no doubt that Pan has plenty more to offer,
it’s just a case of drilling and adding to the known mineralized tonnages. That isn’t to say the mine life at Pan
is infinite, it does mean that we should be confident there is rock there for many more years and even after
accommodating MAI plans for throughput and annual production increases. Importantly, Pan has just gone
through a sustaining capex cycle with its tailings facilities upgraded and ready to take production for the next
7
four to four and half years. As such, we can expect the recent bump in AISC (see below) to come back down
a little.
Meanwhile, neighbouring Pan (see Nevada map above) is the Gold Rock project, its resource looks like this:
Another 403k oz waiting to be mined. Please note that this 43-101 count dates back to 2020 and that may as
well be a hundred years, but the average grade is strong and Gold Rock is equally as likely to grow in the
same way as the Pan resource as mining starts and resources are replaced by drilling and exploration. Once
closed, MAI may choose to lump the two assets together and consider them one property and we may even
see a 43-101 report that combines the two properties. All that is for the future, what we do know today is
that Gold Rock is now fully permitted for production and is an obvious focus for MAI and its near and
medium-term production growth.
As for recent operations, we now take a few column inches and use some visuals to assure readers that Pan
is a decent little mining operation and will be a good asset for MAI going forward. We begin with mining
rates, with ore running around 1.2m tonnes per quarter (below left), or around 13,300 tonnes per day, at a
strip rate that typically oscillates between 2.5X and 3X (below right)
Pan Mine: Mined tonnages, per qtr
This is a very straightforward operation, with all the mined tonnes run through a crusher and then placed
onto leach pads (chart below left) and very little if any difference between measured grades at the mine and
on the pad. It’s easy to envisage this operation, a simple “dig it, crush it, place it” circuit and an exercise in
blasting and moving rock, quickly and efficiently. Simple is good, we like simple.
That brings us to production and sales data, with the chart below left showing sales that have averaged
9,678 oz per quarter in the period 2022 to date. Below right isn’t hard and fast data (it’s a heap leach pad
8
25.2
79.0
41.3
41.1
99.2
43.1
72.2
98.1
94.2
92.1
70.3
01.1
46.2
31.1
81.3
41.1
41.3
99.0
40.3
80.1
53.3
91.1
44.3
21.1
99.2
71.1
5
4
3
2
1
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
mmt Pan Mine: Strip rate, per qtr
4.00
ore mined waste mined 3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00 1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
source: Calibre/Equinox filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
source: Calibre/Equinox filings, IKN calcs
Pan Mine: Ore mined vs Ore placed on pad, per qtr
3479.0 5600.1 6731.1 7311.1 3733.1 1633.1
7988.1 3668.1
6882.1 8303.1 3690.1 270.1 921.1 9670.1 7831.1 9931.1 7889.0 4579.0 2080.1 260.1 6781.1 4851.1 2611.1 8631.1 3471.1 2261.1
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8 0.6
0.4
0.2
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
mmt Pan Mine: Mined grade and pad grade, per qtr
ore mined
ore placed
source: Calibre/Equinox filings
84.0 74.0 43.0 43.0 73.0 73.0 83.0 93.0 83.0 83.0 93.0 93.0 33.0 43.0 33.0 33.0 83.0 73.0 54.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 63.0 63.0 13.0 13.0
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25 0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
g/t Au
mined grade
pad grade
source: company filings
after all), but is simple comparison of contained pad ounces to quarterly production gives us an implied
recovery rate which, over the period, averages 68.4%.
Finally, this chart shows the quarterly cost profile at Pan:
Pan Mine: Cash costs, per qtr
9
3721 7341
1871
1021 3631 3941 0251 7451 6751
5671 3181
7451
8471
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
Pan Mine: Gold produced and sold, per qtr
U$/oz total cash costs
AISC
source: Calibre/Equinox filings
In its marketing literature last week, MAI claims Pan will be a steady state operation running at a typical
U$1,700/oz AISC and that’s a reasonable assumption considering what we see on that chart. We’ve seen a
few recent quarters where costs per ounce have been higher, they’ve either coincided with lower tonnages
moved or lower grade, or both. We discussed that issue on the call last Thursday and MAI sees plenty of
opportunities to optimize an operation that’s been…well…slightly neglected in the last few quarters as CXB
focused its efforts on getting its Valentine expansion project across the line. For one example, CXB was well
aware that the main bottleneck to increasing production was the crushing circuit and an investment of as
little as U$2m on extra machinery would be enough to increase throughput toward 20,000 tonnes per day,
but that capital project got shuffled down its company-wide priorities. With new eyes on Pan and an attitude
that makes it the flagship of this smaller entity, those optimizations happen rapidly.
Which brings us to one of the central questions: What’s Pan worth to our newly-pivoted MAI? Our task is to
provide a framework and for that, we make several reasonable assumptions to arrive at a ballpark model:
We aim to get a number for EBIT and do so in a simple manner, received gold price minus AISC.
A headwind of 5,000 oz gold per year for the first two years of pre-pay facility. However, that should
effectively get paid by the continued small-scale production from Santana
We then apply a range of gold prices, starting at U$2,800/oz as that’s what the company uses in its base
case financial model (they also assume a long-term gold perice of U$2,500/oz) and then increasing in
U$200/oz steps to U$4,000/oz.
We then apply a range of annual production estimates, starting at a lowball 35,000 oz (the mine
disappoints), then to the guided 40,000 oz which is our best case assumption for year one. After that, we
include 50k, 60k and 65k to show what Pan could do once throughput is expanded:
Here are the results, in table form (I tried putting together a graph, it got too busy):
9659 53901 48101 92411 57701 02401 4279 97401
1776
5319 9469 4769
6707
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
Oz Au Pan Mine: Implied recovery percentage
100
gold produced 90 89.0 77.082.4 86.4 gold sold
80 64.0 67.7 63.2 74.2 70 59.3 58.0 56.8 61.4
60 49.3
50
40
30
20
10
0
source; Calibre/Equinox filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
%
source: IKN calcs from Calibre data
Minera Alamos: Est. EBIT at various gold prices & production levels (U$m)
average Annual gold production assumptions (Oz Au)
gold price 35,000 oz 40,000 oz 50,000 oz 60,000 oz 65,000 oz
U$2,800 38.5 44.0 55.0 66.0 71.5
U$3,000 45.5 52.0 65.0 78.0 84.5
U$3,200 52.5 60.0 75.0 90.0 97.5
U$3,400 59.5 68.0 85.0 102.0 110.5
U$3,600 66.5 76.0 95.0 114.0 123.5
U$3,800 73.5 84.0 105.0 126.0 136.5
U$4,000 80.5 92.0 115.0 138.0 149.5
source: IKN ests and calcs from company data
If we run with the company forecast of 40,000 oz of production, AISC of U$1700/oz and a gold price of
U$3,200/oz, the forecast EBIT comes to U$60m per annum. Or U$68m for U$3,400/oz gold, if you prefer.
That’s not bad for a company this weekend with an implied market cap of U$265m, but it gets better once
Pan starts to run through the gears. At the meeting on Thursday, CEO Koningen estimated that with the
crusher upgrade, 55,000 oz annual totals were in its grasp even before Gold Rock becomes a thing or
Copperstone starts moving forward. NB: Please note the above table is presented in US Dollars.
Now we use the same data, but present the result on a per-share basis in Canadian dollars after assuming a
post-rollback count of 105.3m shares out for MAI.v:
Minera Alamos: Est. margin/share at various gold prices & production levels
(CAD$)
average Annual gold production assumptions (Oz Au)
gold price 35,000 oz 40,000 oz 50,000 oz 60,000 oz 65,000 oz
U$2,800 0.50 0.57 0.72 0.86 0.93
U$3,000 0.59 0.68 0.85 1.01 1.10
U$3,200 0.68 C$0.78 0.98 1.17 1.27
U$3,400 0.77 C$0.88 1.11 1.33 1.44
U$3,600 0.87 0.99 1.24 1.48 1.61
U$3,800 0.96 1.09 1.37 1.64 1.78
U$4,000 1.05 1.20 1.50 1.80 1.94
source: IKN ests and calcs from company data
On a per-share basis in Canadian Dollars, the Pan mine’s profit margins stand up well to examination even
after the incoming share dilution (though admittedly before the warrants kick in). At our quasi-benchmark
40,000oz production and U$3,200/oz gold price, we get a per share margin of 78c per annum, which
compares to this weekend’s implied share price of C$3.45 and a puts us at approximately 4.5X. This shouldn’t
be confused with bottom line EPS, we’re considering operating margin of the Pan mine and not MAI.v the
corporate entity. However, things get interesting as soon as that crusher starts improving throughput and
overall production and even if we keep to a
AISC sensitivity at U$3,400/oz gold
U$1,700/oz AISC at higher rates the multiple
drops to around 4X.
On that subject, to give an idea of cost
sensitivity, this visual (not too busy) shows
what happens at different AISC levels, the
same annual production levels and a flat
U$3,400/oz gold price. For example, a
U$1,500/oz AISC at 40k oz/year adds C$0.11
per share to EBIT.
The bottom line: No matter how bad the
optics are for the share dilution, the plan to poick up Pan makes sense financially. It’s a simple operation, it’s
ready to reward a modest capital injection but most importantly, it’s highly profitable at current gold prices
and even if production sticks at 40,000 oz gold per year, all-but justifies this weekend’s C$0.345 (will be
C$3.45) share price. When you add the development assets to the mix, consider the Mexico gigs as now
“waiting in the wings” and consider that part of this deal means MAI brings in much-needed treasury cash
with which it can get on and develop its organic pipeline. It makes sense even if the deal terms felt like a slap
in the face and cause the stock to drop the way it did.
10
78.0 28.0
77.0 37.0
99.0
49.0
88.0 38.0
42.1
71.1
11.1
40.1
84.1
4.1 33.1
52.1
16.1
25.1
44.1
53.1
1.70
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
35k 40k 50k 60k 65k
source: company filings, IKN ests and calcs
erahs/nigram
TIBE
$C
1500
1600
1700
1800
Discussion and conclusion
After the analysis, the good looking numbers and the upbeat tone of the report to now, you may be
wondering why I’ve decided to sell some of my shares and drop the company down from Top Pick to the
main recommended list. There’s good reason for that, let’s begin with a few bullet points:
Last week’s news from Minera Alamos has changed the complexion of the company significantly. Once
purely Mexican, then more recently Mexico-centric with a USA asset that will allow it to grow while the
long wait for permits continues, we’re now faced with a company that will focus its efforts on The USA,
will make its money from The USA as from the day the deal closes and will see its production growth in
both the near and medium-term come from The USA.
That’s not even half of it: This time last weekend MAI was a trade on a better permitting schedule in
Mexico, one with a cheap but stab le share price that would rocket on receipt of even the Santana leach
pad amendment, then really take to the skies when Cerro de Oro was awarded its permits. Suddenly
that’s almost secondary consideration, as the massive share dilution plus a very large warrant overhang
at 70c Canadian means upside has been crimped. This isn’t the same trade set-up as before.
The massive dilution means the incoming fresh cash is getting a great deal compared to established
shareholders, long-term or otherwise, and that’s put quite a few noses out of joint. I’ll be frank, I’m one
of those dislocated noses. However, I do “get it”, the cheap price and the warrants dilution is the price to
pay and in this way, MAI is only going to pay once. From here, the plan is to pay for everything out of
cash flow (or at worst guarantee using small and reasonably priced bank loans), there won’t be any
piecemeal deals to fund Copperstone, then Santana pad, then Cerro de Oro, then La Fortuna etc. It’s also
worth reflecting that the great and cheap deal being enjoyed by the new money also sets a clear floor
price for the stock. The company going forward won’t have cash concerns and will have positive free cash
flow, it would take a serious mishap at Pan to cause an existential risk, you cannot say the same for any
exploreco dependent on the markets for ongoing funds.
But that’s not all, we also have a new member of the C-suite in Jason Kosec and while I was impressed
by his message and wherewithal during my meeting last week (the first time we’d crossed paths), he and
his corporate level contacts and access to capital have already changed the company strategy and we’re
likely to continue seeing this new fingerprint make its mark. Don’t get me wrong, that’s not a criticism
and it may well be that MAI got a bit too sleepy for its own good in the Waiting For Godot (or as we’re
talking Mexico, Esperando a Godot) period. While on this subject, when I spoke with company President
Doug Ramshaw one of the questions I asked was a comment on the (social media and e-mail) lips of
many others and no, he has no plans to leave MAI.v. For sure the c-suite dynamic will be different with a
new Chair installed (an executive Chair who is happy to plough at least $1m of his own money into MAI,
at that) and the company made the proactive decision to let Jason Kosec take the lead last week on the
deal and news, basically because he was the architect, but that’s all. Doug isn’t going anywhere on this
news and whether that stays the same next year or in 2029 or whenever is up to him to decide and tell
you, not me.
Finally, we’re also facing a company that wants to run a 10-for-1 roll back on its share count and become
a member of both the TSX main board and the Nasdaq. While lower on the list of “things” this weekend,
come the day these are also potential price catalysts.
Those things and more, all on top of the normal, day-to-day risks and variance we face by playing this most
volatile of market sub-sectors. That’s the background, now for the reasons I’m selling some of my position
(and while I’m thinking about it. I have a target of disposing around 30% of my shares):
First and foremost, I’m still going to be long! If I felt like giving up on MAI.v this weekend I would do so,
instead this is an adjustment that, once complete, means I’ll still be long and still be rooting for the success
of the company and its team.
MAI: Santana sales and forecast, per qtr
They have failed at Santana. It hasn’t been
said out loud (yet), but Plan B should have
borne fruits by now and according to what I
picked up last week, it hasn’t. The Santana
Plan B was never going to make a company- changing amount of money, but it was
11
104 8512 9213 6324 0582 5762 1701 636 066 709 505
0
3931 4101 0001 0011
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500 2000 1500
1000
500
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2 tse52q3
Oz Au
source: MAI data, IKN ests
planned to keep the company ticking over while the wait for the permits went on. As things turned out, last
week MAI had little choice but to accept the deal as offered by the financiers, full warrant and all, because
the lack of positive cash flow from Santana had begun to drift the company toward existential risk. I’ll make
no bones about it, this is a disappointment and particularly when considering how the company basically shut
down Santana in 2024 in order to re-shape and re-tool is available pad space for its Plan B.
The warrant overhang at C$0.705 is significant and will crimp share price upside. Not only for the size of
380m papers looking at the world at that price level but because you can guarantee, sure as eggs, that
plenty of the buyers of this C$0.355 bought deal will clip their warrant at the earliest opportunity. That’s also
true for EQX, a company that will have 96m shares of MAI and a four month wait before they start selling. On
asking about EQX’s position regarding this, Chair Kosec told me EQX has an agreement that it will inform MAI
of its intentions before selling any shares and that’s fair enough; they’ll still sell, take it to the bank.
All that said, be clear that I am willing to put my trust in this management team, despite its poor track record
of delivery in the past three (or so) years and despite bringing in a new face at C-suite level who is bound to
change the MAI corporate way to some extent (again, that may be good or bad, I am not judging). This part
of the equation is simple, if you can’t trust management you sell every single share. You may fell differently
on this matter (and I’ve exchanged with several off you that do indeed disagree), but in my considered
opinion the poor delivery of MAI in the 2022 to 2024 period was for political reasons almost entirely out of
the hands of the company. Without AMLO throwing his spanner in the works, I’m confident this team of
experienced and successful mine builders would have brought their projects into fruition by now. It’s for this
reason that I’m willing to give Minera Alamos another chance because this time, it has a working mine u and
running and begging for a few tweaks to improve its output and not one, but two fully permitted mines
projects waiting for their turn to become mines (Gold Rock, Copperstone). There are no excuses. And all this
without considering that at any given moment, Cerro de Oro may receive its EIA permit, a moment that
would truly transform its Mexico operations.
Therefore and after due consideration, the decision is to lighten my exposure to Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and,
by selling around 30% of my holding, it will drop down to the main “Recommended” section of the Stocks to
Follow list, leaving Rio2 Ltd as our sole Top Pick. I don’t know what I’m going to do with the cash generated
from this partial sale yet, as alongside the recent sales
of AbraSilver and Eldorado I’m somewhat awash with
cash in my junior mining portfolio and with gold
sustaining its bull run this year, that’s not an optimal
position. However, those decisions will be for another
day. Finally and as a minor detail, I suspect MAI will
get over the worst of the selling flux in the first couple
of days of the coming week, so I won’t be in a rush to
sell my portion of shares and will probably wait until
Wednesday at least, perhaps even Friday.
Stocks to Follow
The Stocks to Follow list underperformed the market. That’s not to say we didn’t have any winners, as in fact
nine of the stocks held this time last week registered gains (RIO.v EGO, ARG.to, ABRA.to, MARI.to, GROY,
WRLG.v, SRL.v, SURG.v, IAUX, including four of the top five stocks on the list this weekend and this weekend
I have more net worth in my portfolio than last week (along with a nice wedge of cash, ready to deploy).
What’s more, four of those moved up in double figure percentages from this time last weekend, the big
winners including Gold Royalty (GROY up 20.5%), West Red Lake (WRLG.v up 13.9%), Salazar Resources
(SRL.v up 12.0%) and Top Pick Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 11.6%).
12
However, in a week when GDX improved by 10.7%, GDXJ by 11.1% and the copper/industrial metals juniors
came along for the ride (e.g. The Copper Basket average added 50% to its 2025 total last week), the 25.0%
lost by Minera Alamos (MAI.v) was a punch in the gut. There were two other losers on our list (ARG.to,
PAU.cse), both forgivable under the circumstances but along with a full six unchanged stocks on the week
(LMS.v, RPX.v, OCI.v, MIRL.cse, PGDC.v, MENE.v) that also dragged on gains, the net effect was a severe
disappointment for one of those weeks where you’re looking to make coin. And that’s my complaining and
moaning done for one day so to use the fashionable phrase, Thank you for your attention to this matter!
With the sale of both Eldorado Gold (EGO) and AbraSilver (ABRA.to) we’re down to 16 open positions on our
Stocks to Follow list, four fewer than our self-imposed maximum. Of those, 13 of those carry at least some of
my personal money and the other three are in the Watch List sub-section.. Thirteen of the listed stocks are in
the green, three are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$1.63 103.8% Fenix build and re-rate on
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v PART SALE C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% $0.70 tgt no longer top pick
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$2.07 34.4% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jun-24 C$9.87 223.6% Quality Cu dev, FS due
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$3.23 130.7% Now at 1st tgt going higher
West Red Lake WRLG.v STR BUY C$0.84 20-Jul-25 C$0.90 7.1% Added Aug'25, good start
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.14 75.0% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.215 13.2% proj.generator, Organullo spec
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.085 -22.7% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v spec buy $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.155 47.6% bulk copper in good address
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.07 16.7% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
i-80 Gold IAUX WATCH U$0.50825 18-May-25 U$0.6156 21.1% Close to buyable again
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.06 200.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.175 105.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.15 -66.7% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
Eldorado Gold EGO Aug'25 U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.73 36.4% took profit, underperf'd peers
AbraSilver ABRA.to Aug'25 C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.67 107.7% took profit, good result
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): PARTIAL SALE, MOVED FROM TOP PICK TO RECOMMENDED LIST. A brief
line to confirm the main message in today’s edition. Between the multiple pages dedicated to this in the
13
Fundamentals section, the Trade Heads-Up notice at the top of the shop and these four lines, you can’t say I
tried to bury the call.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): POSITION CLOSED. Gone Monday morning at U$21.73, I got to regret pressing
the sell button early when the entire mining complex kept climbing once Canadian markets opened for
business on Tuesday. While I knew I wouldn’t sell at the top, I felt a little sheepish for leaving 5% on the
table in such an easy way.
AbraSilver (ABRA.to): POSITION CLOSED. Same general thing here, I didn’t waste time and my ABRA
shares went early Tuesday morning as the world still thinks silver is a great investment opportunity. Thery
may well be right, but by pricing the silver miners ever higher there comes a time when cabbage hands like
mine take profits. Anytime you score a net double on a trade is good, that this one happened in less than two
quarters makes it particularly pleasing. As for the future, I’m not champing at the bit to own silver exposure
for the moment but if that position changes (and it might), ABRA remains at the very top of my list for
exposure to the metal. Given the right circumstances, I’d buy this back in a heartbeat no matter what price it
showed.
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): ADDED. I got the size I wanted, but not the price and was looking to get
this time last week as the mining complex shot out the blocks and kept on going up. That’s the sound of me
splitting hairs, but as I got the quantity I wanted, managed to average down by a single shiny penny, then
watched as WRLG blew straight through the 8-handle to close at 90c, it would be silly to complain. Indeed,
this was my only good trade decision of the week.
In other news, we can’t fault WRLG for a lack of transparency as its NRs tend to be long and packed with
detail (Gwen Preston’s fingerprints). That was the case on August 6th and the NR “West Red Lake Gold
Provides Madsen Mine Operations Update” (4) which should be read closely by shareholders and potential
shareholders alike, but to boil it down:
WRLG produced 3,800 oz gold in July and sold 3,595oz for gross revenues of U$12m.
The mill is working well ij this ramp-up phase with periods of processing as much as 800tpd (upper end
of nameplate already, with recoveries where they were expected at 94% and average gold grade of a
strong 8.9 g/t, reflecting better than expected mined grades at this stage. Interesting they’re not worried
about running those higher grades through the mill during ramp-up, that smacks of confidence.
The shaft renovation project is moving forward, the implication of better tonnages to mill in the future.
It’s impossible to complain about the WRLG’s attitude toward informing the market, our world would be a
better one if more companies did the same. As for the sales, U$12m is a bonus and while I’m still expecting
the company to go back to market for one last capital raise, the fact it’s selling decent quantities of gold at
this stage may allow its cash flow situation to cover the breach. Happy to have bought and added when I did.
i-80 Gold Corp (IAUX) (IAU.to): STILL THINKING ABOUT IT. We recognized the window of
opportunity for relatively cheap shares in IAU/IAUX last weekend, it promptly slammed shut in our faces
again with a bang. The decision to lighten the big Minera Alamos position, coming soon after the profit takes
in EGO and ABRA.to, means my personal portfolio will have too much cash for its own good come this time
next week, at least in the type of peppy bull market, and IAUX is an obvious candidate to turn some of that
cash into exposure.
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): Please see the consideration of GROY’s 2q25 results in today’s Market
Watching section below, here we note that GROY is now one of three stocks on our list with double figure
percentage gains (or five if you include the Watch List stocks).
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Last weekend in IKN846 we mentioned that ARG was likely to suffer some
knock-on effects from the unfortunate and headline-making accident at the El Teniente mine, source of its
fresh tailings feed, which has been under a production suspension since the earth movement event that killed
six underground workers and injured several others. That assumption was confirmed on Wednesday August
6th by this NR out of ARG (5) which laid out the situation in simple and correct terms, paid correct homage to
the lost souls and got to the paydirt at the end:
14
“Until El Teniente resumes operations, MVC will focus on processing historic tailings. The impact on the
Company’s annual production guidance cannot be quantified at this stage, but will depend on how long mining
operations at El Teniente remain suspended. Currently, the daily loss of copper production at MVC is estimated at
100,000 pounds per day.”
We know the underground damage caused by the seismic event (triggered by natural or man-made causes,
it’s a moot point at this stage) is worse than originally expected and affects some zones of the current
working stopes, however the partial re-opening of the mine was authorized to begin on Friday (6). El
Teniente is a massive operation with many sectors, so going forward just four of those (namely Recursos
Norte, Andesita, Andes Norte and Diamante) will remain suspended while eight others (namely Pilar Norte,
Panel Esmeralda, Esmeralda, Pacífico Superior, Diablo Regimiento, Panel Reno, Dacita, Reservas Norte) can
get back to work. As El Teniente doesn’t have to be
running at 100% to provide adequate fresh tailings
feed for the ARG operation, it’s likely to be a low
level hit to Q3 production and best considered a
bump in the road, rather than a serious issue. You
may want to take advantage of this dip compared
to COPX, the arb is likely to close again.
Finally, I was going to do the overview of the ARG
2q25 financials this weekend, but I’m going to defer
it for a third week. For one thing there aren’t any
surprises in the numbers and for another, I’ve been
obsessing over Minera Alamos all weekend and
haven’t got round to doing the ARG write up.
Nothing that can’t wait.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Something that both MARI and this desk has kept in the back pocket gets
an airing this weekend, mainly because it’s now becoming topical. Before Marimaca Copper was Marimaca
Copper it was Coro Mining, which tried and failed to get the San Jorge copper mine in Mendoza, Argentina
permitted and into operation. MARI left Coro behind and went to Chile, but the new owners of San Jorge
(Russian capital) persisted and with the change in attitude toward mining recently, there’s been real progress
and last week the project got to its public hearing stage (7). The local town of Uspallata was the reason its
permitting went badly ten-plus years ago, there’s still plenty of opposition to the project but these days, both
provincial laws and the governor of Mendoza, Alfredo Cornejo, are playing in the project’s favour (8).
While still somewhat polemic, San Jorge is likely to get its permits this time around and if it does, once up
and running the mine would produce around 40,000 tonnes of copper per year for its 16 year mine life, as
well as a decent gold kicker. All this matters to MARI because the company still owns a juicy 2% NSR on San
Jorge. They may elect to keep it, or they could easily sell it to a third party (very attractive stream for a long
list of royalty players), but either way the permitted mine will make that NSR more valuable and it’s not a
stretch to consider it worth U$80m to an eventual buyer.
Orecap (OCI.v): Though OCI was unchanged at 7c on the week, we saw plenty of news from this company
as it underscored its growing role of a hub company in the larger Stewart empire Ore Group of companies.
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.53 6.25 2.5
ARIC.v 7.39 0.56 4.14 1.7
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.36 1.50 0.6
XXIX.v 22.992 0.08 1.84 0.7
KTR.v 42.750 0.03 1.28 0.5
MERG.v 5.125 0.025 0.13 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 15.88 6.4
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 15.91 6.4c
At 247.714 S/O
15
First up, the liquid-ish assets book now totals 6.4c/share, giving plenty of backbone to th3e 7c market price.
The big change on the week was new holding Kintavar (KTR.v), which we expected to revalue somewhat
once it came out of the halt imposed as part of its RTO deal with Ore Group and after a lengthy delay. That
finally happened on Wednesday and the chart (right) shows that KTR popped to 4c before finding what looks
like a new level at 3c, making it a double on the week. FWIW, my assumption of 22.922m share of XXIX
becomes reality when the previously announced deal to create the new company from KTR becomes reality
(Auriginal, or something like that). The meeting to close the KTR deal and make it into its new corporate ID
comes at the end of this month.
Secondly, on August 6th OCI announced (9) it was
setting up three new spincos, designed to create new
companies and presumably to become vehicles for the
physical land assets held by the company. As OCI is
currently getting virtually zero market value from the
three, namely McGarry (next to Gold Candle), Mirado
(also close to that zone) and Knight (slightly to the West
and next to the Juby project, but still in the same prolific
Kirkland Lake mining camp) it would make sense to see
these in their own companies and should unlock value
for the company. There’s plenty of latent value here at
the current 7c share price. Firstly due to its holdings,
secondly because it would take just one piece of news
from one of its component parts to move values
significantly higher. Low risk and high potential reward is the right formula.
EDIT: OCI has published a 7 minute YouTube explaining the reasoning behind the three new companies.
Worth your time, find it here (10)
Rio2 Lid (RIO.v): Our Top Pick offered a reminder of
why you should buy the dips. After its soft week (yes,
you could have bought shares for C$1.39 just seven
trading days ago), RIO.v roared back last week and
added 12% in just two days. However and as seen in
the comparative chart to GDXJ seen right, it hit a wall of
selling and proceeded to flat-line for the last three days
of the week, stubbornly refusing to make a new ATH.
Word from tape-watchers (I wasn’t watching this time,
have to be honest) is that recent buyers on the dip were
taking an easy profit, creating an iceberg in the process.
They probably have some more to sell and if so, RIO.v
will flat-line for a few more days. All things shall pass.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-two weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 14.88% to level stakes:
16
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 405.75 13.52 95.4%
2 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 279.21 597.51 2.14 49.7%
3 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 174.6 420.79 2.41 63.9%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 406.09 2.39 25.8%
5 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 326.56 1.99 20.6%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 291.70 2.34 14.1%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.516 238.40 1.16 56.8%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 261.543 198.77 0.76 38.2%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 173.377 91.89 0.53 -23.2%
10 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 81.77 0.54 -19.4%
11 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 211.153 70.74 0.335 109.4%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 124.195 60.23 0.485 -23.0%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 20.64 0.08 -27.3%
14 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 20.00 0.57 -5.0%
15 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 117.73 19.43 0.165 -46.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg 21.89%
A great week for The Copper Basket, with the basket average up 7% on the week to hit a new 2025 high,
with ten winners so we’re not listing them all, three
losers (TMQ.to, ECU.v, CGNT.v) and two stocks The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
25%
unchanged on the week (XXIX.v, PM.cse). Four stocks
20%
ran hard for a double figure percentage win, namely
15%
Kobrea (KBX.cse up 29.6%), SolGold (SOLG.l up 10%
21.3%), Hot Chili (HCH.v up 12.5%) and Aldebaran 5%
(ALDE.v up 10.7%), let’s allow American Eagle (AE.v up 0%
9.3%) onto the tail end of the list. -5%
-10%
-15%
I’m going with the five day chart for the Comex
September copper contract this week, as it misses the
noise of that massive, tariff-related drop of the week
before last. It spent most of the week in a tight range
between U$4.40/lb and U$4.45/lb, with the best prices notably showing on Friday afternoon Americas time,
once London has closed for the week. The equivalent LME contract closed the week at U$4.39/lb, so there’s
still a small arb in the Comex’s favour
However, what this chart, the LME copper trading and the impressive move in copper stocks all tell us is that
the Comex “price collapse” was purely artificial in nature and outside the Comex contract, the real world of
17
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01
source: IKN calcs
copper shrugged and just got on with doing what it’s done for years; benchmarking to LME. Indeed, our
curated comment this week is an example of how collective amnesia swept over the copper market (11).
"The weaker dollar has been a key driver in August," said Dan Smith at Commodity Market Analytics.
"You've got dollar weakness and China looking like it's in good shape. So the fundamental side feels
like it's quite positive for the time being."
Suddenly we’re back to price and demand fundamentals, well waddya know…
We now move to the regular segment tracking copper stocks in the futures systems, with data provided by
Cochilco:
The three official copper inventories systems saw another net add on the week, up a total of
26,769 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 476,641mt. In fact, all three component systems saw
additions to stocks and that’s been a rarity in 2025.
The Shanghai SHFE copper stores added 9,390mt to finish at 81,933mt, off the 2025 low registered
last weekend.
LME copper stocks added 14,100mt, the entire inflow hitting its Asia warehouses, and closed at
155,850mt. Between SHFE and LME, the summer lull in end user buying is evident.
Comex copper stocks continue to break records, this time up 3,279mt to close that 238,858mt. As
noted last weekend, Comex stocks are set to become a true bellwether for the state of demand in
North America in the next few months. The only thing we don’t expect is a steady number. If they
drop, demand is higher than expected and the off-system stocks that we know are out there are
getting used quickly. But if Comex stocks start clicking up faster, it would indicate the same off-
system copper inventory can’t find a home and its owners don’t know what to do with it.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows that small uptick in the 2025 squiggly line, one that markes a contrast to the
2022 and 2023 lines that it has tracked most closely. But it would be silly to jump to conclusions on such
flimsy evidence and unless there’s a large add in the week ahead, it’s best put down to normal variance.
We’re in August, traditionally a quiet month for SHFE movements and until Q3 turns to Q4 we’re not likely to
get an actionable signal from this dataset.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse): Hope it wasn’t anything I said. Last week’s feature on KBX outlined its
potential and this weekend the stock price is nearly
30% higher than it was in IKN846, which looks
spectacular of course but at least half of that move is
market circumstance. For one thing, last weekend
registered the spike low close you can see in that red
box on the price target, for another we saw a wide
bid/ask of 52c/57c all Friday afternoon, both prices
taken and as the coin flip turned out, the last trade
was at 57c. So instead of last week’s performance,
KBX is better gauged on the two months you see in
the chart, with the 35c and 40c prices easy to pick up in June and early July, then the stock woke up and has
traded the way you see in the red box. That, for me, is a 40% to 50% updraft in two months on where you
draw your lines and a better reading of the new interest in this stock.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): Another stock that got better press than its current reality last week was
ALDE, as the 10.7% improvement isn’t much more than the top and bottom of a rather wide trading channel
in which it’s been ensconced since late June. It still did well of course, but context is required.
ALDE gave us news last week (12), reporting the last 17 holes of its 2024/2025 campaign (drilling will re-start
once the worst of the Andean winter is behind us) that were mostly about infilling and bringing more
certainty to zones already drilled and with known resource. One thing in the NR was the comment made by
chief bottle washer Kevin Heather, who noted the good continuity of both grades and widths in the reported
holes and then went on to mention the upcoming PFS:
Kevin B. Heather, Chief Geological Officer of Aldebaran, commented: “The results reported today, along with the
previously released batch of holes, demonstrate the continuity and grade consistency of the Altar mineralization,
which will increase the confidence level of the next mineral resource as we move the project to the PFS stage.”
That's notable because the next milestones according to ALDE are first a PEA, due this current quarter, then
a resource update at the end of 2025. Indeed, the PFS isn't due until the end of next year and that suggests
that both this and the preceding batch of holes are not going to make it into the PEA, but will become part of
the resource update.
PS: There’s a new corporate presentation on the ALDE website, find it here (13).
The Producer Basket
After 32 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 67.23% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1108 76.43 68.98 85.3%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 502.579 68.15 135.61 73.4%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1748.05 40.96 23.43 51.2%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 32.97 171.59 45.9%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 4.70 3.58 46.7%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 4.63 22.60 52.0%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 3.86 4.88 96.8%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 11.94 231.127 3.81 22.56 88.9%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 3.09 10.42 86.7%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 1.96 13.05 45.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 67.23%
In old-timer parlance, a rip-snorter of a week for the big PM companies and our Producer Basket came along
for the ride. All ten of our basket stocks registered gains and with notable big moves in the majority of them,
with the best move made by OceanaGold (OGC.to up 19.3%). Rarely do we see large goldies move up by
19
that amount in just one week though to the credit of the other stocks OGC was chased by strong
improvements in New Gold (NGD up 14.6%), Sandstorm (SAND up 10.5%), Newmont (NEM up 10.2%) and
let’s stretch the window a little to include Wesdome (WDOFF up 9.9% and Barrick (B up 9.6%) in the roll of
honour. If only my personal portfolio had kept track in the same way.
As for the race with the GDX benchmark, we dropped back slightly as GDX managed to improve by an eye-
popping 10.7% on the week (another true rarity) and with the earnings disappointer B2Gold (BTG) taking
10% of our level weight basket, we couldn’t quite keep up.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
80% comparative to GDX control
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Franco-Nevada (FNV): A reminder that FNV reports
its quarter tomorrow, August 11th with current forecast
consensus for an EPS of U$1.10. It’s impossible to sniff
at a +40% YTD performance for a royaltyco, then again
it’s also obvious that I should have chosen Wheaton
(WPM) as my big royalty representative this year, rather
than FNV.
B2Gold (BTG) and OceanaGold (OGC.to): The
comparative chart of these two shows the differing
fortunes and reactions to their 2q25 earnings reports,
fair to say OGC win this round.
I’m not a raging fan of BTG and the time/cost overruns at Goose were sadly predictable, but I thought its Q2
numbers were better than the reception they got. Scratch the surface of a slight revenues miss (U$692m,
compared to consensus of $711m) and you see the company sold 18.4k oz gold less than they produced.
While BTG nearly always sells fewer ounces than it produces (a royalty thing) the discrepancy is normally in
the 5k oz to 8k oz range, and sure enough, if you check inventories data its “gold and silver bullion” line item
moved up by U$13.5m or so. And that’s carried at cost. With Goose apparently now on track (and they now
20
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
8%
ikn 6%
gdx control
4%
2%
0%
source: IKN calcs -2%
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
have enough machinery on site to have produced a few hundred pre-production ounces during Q2), it
wouldn’t be a shock to see BTG catch back up next week.
As for OGC, it beat consensus by 13% and the share price benefited accordingly. Here’s Mining Dot Com with
some words (14):
During the second quarter of 2025, the Vancouver-headquartered gold miner saw revenue jump to a record $432
million, compared with $359.9 million the previous quarter and $251.2 million the same period last year.
Net profit also hit a record $117.6 million, up from $101.2 million in Q1 and just $34 million a year ago, as did
adjusted earnings per share ($0.51), which beat analyst estimates. BMO Capital Markets had forecasted an
adjusted EPS of $0.41.
For the record, BMO upped its price target on OGC to C$28, implying an upside of 24% to this weekend’s
price. It sure is a good moment to put in a beat, what with generalist money now looking closely.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND): Now under offer to Royal Gold,
SAND now trades as a proxy to the bigger royaltyco and
benefited when RGLD beat forecast EPS last week. The
market also liked the deal struck between RGLD and First
Quantum (FM.to), the latter receiving a cool One Billion
Dollars (cue photo of Dr. Evil) and the former getting a
stream on gold production at the Kansanshi copper/gold
mine in Zambia. The royalty formula is tied to copper
production, but when push comes to shove RGLD expects to
get 12,500 oz gold from the stream this year and then an
average of between 35,000 and 40,000 oz gold per year for
the following ten years, paying 20% of spot for the metal.
Here are two lines of simple math:
40,000 oz X (U$3,500 X 80%) = U$112m
35,000 oz X (U$3,000 X 80%) = U$84m
Extrapolate those annual projections over the next ten years and it’s safe to say RGLD is betting on gold
prices remaining high.
The TinyCaps List
After 32 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 26.04% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 14.23 0.105 -38.2%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 17.99 0.12 -17.2%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 6.43 0.065 -50.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 39.67 0.225 55.2%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 85.7 53.99 0.63 61.5%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 26.21 0.215 168.8%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 268.9 63.19 0.235 80.8%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 17.21 0.16 88.2%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 15.22 0.22 -60.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 14.55 0.10 -28.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 26.04%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
21
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps List added exactly 3.66% to the basket
50% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
average, a reasonable result without making massive
40%
waves thanks to four winners (ELY.v, KDK.v, MOG.v,
30%
RDU.v) versus three losers (CN.v, EDG.v, STS.v) and three
unchanged stocks (BRO.v, LMS.v, VAU.v). The only big 20%
move came from Radius Gold (RDU.v up 18.5%), all the 10%
others were minor shifts in either direction. 0%
-10%
Mogotes Metals (MOG.v): August 5th saw MOG publish
its latest NR in its “How Many NRs Can We Emit Before
Actually Drilling?” series. Or if you prefer, “Can we
mention the Lundin’s Vicuña Project in our NRs about the Los Mogotes project again?” series. Entitled
“Vicuña: 3D Geophysical Model Outlines Large Scale Anomalies at the Los Mogotes Target Cluster Adjacent to
Filo Del Sol” (15), it manages to mention the superstar Vicuña district, and its enclosed Filo Del Sol project in
one headline, so double points scored.
I continue to be impressed with this company’s C$63m market cap, almost double that of Kobrea (see Copper
Basket) and while the concessions are different of course, the story the two companies are selling is basically
the same. In fact, I prefer the potential at KBX over this one, as it’s got into the Mendoza province at the
very first opportunity and got the pick of gorund that’s never seen a prospector’s footfall before. It’s fair to
suppose a geology team or two walked the Mogotes concessions before the Lundins picked where they
decided to pick.
A snapshot opinion of the ten TinyCap list stocks after eight months
By request (and a little back and forth), here’s a quick snapshot of how I see the ten TinyCaps List stocks as
we traverse the eight month of 2025, for reference purposes or otherwise. You get a few words on each
stock and a judgment as to whether they’re still a live speculation possibles after watching the collective price
action and considering each stock’s newsflow so far this year. Be aware that this is strictly my own opinion
and any of these could make my judgment look stupid in the days, weeks and months ahead:
Barksdale Resources (BRO.v): A broken stock and story, this will not be a part of the 2026
tinyCaps list.
Condor Resources (CN.v): Theoretically still alive and CN has made Lazarus-like comeback before
in its long history (for a tinycap exploreco, at least). But very little interest left in this stock for
2025 and again, won’t be a part of the 2026 list
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): Tiny, beaten up hard after the early year drill dusters, but still a work
in progress for this team and not dead.
Endurance Gold (EDG.v): Putting together a resource, seen worse. Still alive
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): Has prospered in 2025 thanks to its all-star backing and move to get
MDN to economic study level (at last). Not a bad way of playing spec copper
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Now a personal holding, above all for Organullo and the news there. Even if
I won some in 2026 this will probably stay on the list here as well.
Mogotes Metals (MOG.v): Expensive and speculative Vicuña nearology play, but has run a smart
marketing campaign and has turned into a spec vehicle for tinycap players.
Radius Gold (RDU.v): Finally permitted for Tierras Roja in Peru, RDU has a long and very spotty
history of over-promising and under-delivering but it will get its chance to impress us now. Or
not.
South Star (STS.v): Broken stock, no further interest
Viva Gold (VAU.v): Broken stock, no further interest
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
22
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Regional politics
Chile: The candidates talk mining
By popular demand (16), we cover the event that happened in front of a live TV audience last Wednesday in
Chile, where the main five candidates running for President in this year’s election showed up to state their
positions and make the case for mining under their eventual presidency. The event, organized by one of
Chile’s leading universities and held in their faculty, wnet under the title “Presidential Round-Table: The
Future of Mining in Chile” (Conversatorio Presidencial . El Future de la Minería en Chile) and attracted the five
big names running for the top job, namely lefty and the Boric government’s representative Jeannette Jara,
the hard righty José Antonio Kast, the other harder righty/libertarian Johannes Kaiser, centre-righty Evelyn
Matthei and the centrist/outsider (who managed to get third place behind Kast and Boric in the 2021) Franco
Parisi.
This link takes you to recording of the event (17) in the Spanish language and if you click through, you’ll
arrive at a YouTube that’s over two hours long. However don’t be put off, the hack is to miss out all the
preliminary blah-blah from a succession of introductory speakers and cut to the main event, which starts at
minute 35. In fact, ther next half hour is the key segment, as the Round Table format used wasn’t a debate,
instead it was a three part presentation including 1) a 5 minute presentation by each candidate 2) a segment
where the candidate answer questions previously chosen from audience members then 3) a brief summing
up from each candidate. Of the three segments, the most instructive is the first in which the candidates set
out their vision and policies for the mining industry in Chile. Long story short; you get 95% of what you need
to know from 25 minutes of speechifying, between minute 35 and minute 60 of the 126 minute show.
In fact make that 20 minutes; For one thing the first speaker, Franco Parisi, doesn’t stand and earthly
chance in this election and for another, he’s a lightweight and said nothing of policy interest in his
presentation.
Then came Evelyn Matthei; Mining is the most important sector in Chile, permitting 10 years too long,
exploration needs faster environmental permitting.
The third speaker was José Antonio Kast, who, along with Jeannette Jara, is front-runner for the job Two
decades of stagnant growth: uncertainty, tax, protests. His vision is to make Chile attractive to FDI.
Easing regulation and permits. As always, Kast was the polished and professional presenter.
Next came Johannes Kaiser: Basically the same message at Kast, except that he’s way more painful to
listen to.
The final presenter was Jeannette Jara, who took a different tack to the others and unsurprisingly,
defended the Boric government’s track record for the mining sector. Her line was “we’ve done well, but
we’ll continue to improve the current playing field”. She made warm and happy noises about the current
environmental permitting regime, too.
Bottom Line: Four of the five candidates said much the same thing in different ways, pointing to the U$50Bn
of projects supposedly on the sidelines, pointing to the slow permitting track, pointing to The Critical Metals
and EV revolution and in consequence wanting FDI to move in a make Chile(an Mining) Great Again. Only
Jeannette Jara danced to a different drumbeat, claiming that the current situation in the mining sector was
good and that all she needed to do was continue with the current reforms to Keep Chilean Mining Great.
However, all made sure they franked their pro-mining credentials and that can only be good for the country
in 2026 and beyond, as even an eventual Jara government would not be anti-mining (or overtly so, as in the
first year of Boric). However, it wasn’t all about mining and while the subject in question was obviously
interesting to these pages, a Round Table assembling all five major candidates on the same stage for the first
time in this campaign cycle was as much about public image and being “Presidenciable” (electable, or
acting/looking like a President). On that score, José Antonio Kast won hands-down. His main rival Jeannette
Jara wasn’t the same polished and eloquent article (she lacks Boric’s ability for public speaking) while Kast
has perfected this aspect of his game and came across as the finishes article, better than even four years
ago. The substance is for other people to debate (and preferably Chileans, rather than some nosey foreigner
with a mining newsletter), but the style winner on Wednesday could not have been more obvious.
We’re still three-and-a-bit months away from the round one election on November 16th and as this is LatAm,
anything can happen. However and at this point it’s difficult to get away from assuming that it will be Jara
23
versus Kast in a second round, then Kast wins the December. I’m not usually this confident about a LatAm
election call, this time I am.
Bolivia: The election round one is next weekend
Next weekend sees Bolivia go to the polls for the first round of its Presidential election and if the voter
intention polls are to be believed, we’re going to get a right wing anti-Evo candidate versus a right wing anti-
Evo candidate in the second round run off.
Bolivia: Final voter intention polls
24
%46.32
%6.12 %2.12
%54.42
%0.02 %0.02
%01.9
%4.6
%3.8
%97.8 %7.9
%7.7
%64.8
%2.7 %5.5 %06.4 %7.4
%0.4
%19.9
%0.5 %2.5 %47.5
%6.01
%6.41
%01.5
%4.41
%3.31
30%
25% SPIE
Captura
20% Ipsos Ciesmori
15%
10%
5%
0%
Doria Quiroga Paz Reyes Rodriguez other "vote in spoil don't
Medina Pereira Villa white" ballot know
source: SPIE/Captura/Ipsos Ciesmori
The three final polls last week from the officially sanctioned polling companies all said the same thing, that it
was between Samuel Dora Medina and Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, those the only candidates polling above
20%....in fact the only ones with double figure support. However, there are a couple of potential wild cards
to consider:
1) Polling in Bolivia has been notoriously….errr… inaccurate over the years and always with a right wing slant.
If the main left wing candidate, Andrónico Rodríguez, does better than his 5.5% to 8.5% “also ran” prediction
in the vote next week it wouldn’t come as a big shock.
2) A lot depends on what the Evo Morales supporters decide to do. Evo has called for Bolivia to boycott the
election, stating that without him on the ballot it isn’t a true democratic vote. His hardcore will do that and
we see the result in the number of people who say they’ll either spoil their ballot or “vote in white” (i.e. vote
without choosing a candidate or writing anything on their ballot slip). But there are also a high percentage of
Don’t Knows this weekend and they might make a difference come the day.
However and with those stated, it does now look likely that it’s Doria Medina versus Quiroga in the run-off
and as such, the risk-tolerant trader may want to take a position in Bolivia-exposed equities this week. I
would not recommend holding for a long time, as Bolivia is something of a tinderbox at the moment and
whoever makes it to round two, Evo Morales is bound to cause mischief and try to stop the run-off from
going ahead (or at the very least refuse to recognize the winner, potentially setting off a criss in control). So
the trade se-up would be to buy Bolivia, wait until it’s rightie versus rightie confirmed in the run-off, then ride
the euphoria and the influx of cash for a few days and then take a swift profit, only considering a return once
the after the second round is complete and we can take the political temperature of a country that may or
may not move to quasi-civil war, led by Evo.
Market Watching
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) 2q25 financials
On time and in good order, our main royalty trade Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) filed its 2q25 earnings on
Wednesday August 6th (8) and to be honest, I don’t think you need to read my opinion on the stock, taking a
look at the price chart is enough:
AS seen in this five day comparative, the entire mining complex represented by GDXJ here had a good week
but to see a royalty play, supposedly a defensive play in our sector, out-strip the median after its financials is
all you really need to know. We also took a look at the company’s production/sales numbers in IKN845 dated
July 27th 2025 in the fundies note “Gold Royalty Corp 2q25 production: Good Money”, so today we’re going
to cover the financials and any big differences between our guessrtimes and the Q2 reality, that should be
enough.
We knew two weeks ago that revenues including totaled U$4.4m, with around U$3.8m in top line revenues
and U$0.6m from land agreement proceeds and interest. We now know the total was exactly U$4.412m and
here’s the breakdown of the money received:
U$m Vares
GROY: Revenues breakdown
5 Jerritt Canyon
other
4.5
Borborema
4 Coté Gold
3.5 Borden
Cozamin
3 Cad Malartic
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25
source: company filings
Notable contributions came from the ramping Coté Gold mine, with U$1.052m to GROY in the quarter and
plenty more to come as the mine reaches full capacity by the end of this year. Borborema contributed
U$1.228m, its new record and it's good to see U$0.72m from the Vares mine, that shold now settle into a
more regular payments rhythm. However, we note that the star royalty at Canadian Malartic contributed just
U$18,000, as the operators (AEM) must have sourced their feed from areas other than the GROY royalty
zone. As for the P+L, sales revenues are the ones that count on that and they came to U$3.823m (belo w
left), while COGS came to U$0.686m (below right).
GROY: Sales per qtr
25
335.0 836.0 709.1 668.0 285.0 767.0 864.0 797.0 610.1 498.2
497.1 60.2
553.3
831.3
328.3
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 1.5 1
0.5
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m GROY: COGS
source: company filings
782.0 884.0
730.1
650.0 612.0 711.0 402.0 373.0 942.0 25.0 524.0 884.0
930.2
632.0 686.0
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1 0.8 0.6
0.4
0.2
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m
source: company filings
G&A at U$1.841m was slightly higher than expected (chart below) but still reasonable, while “other opex” (no
chart) remained high at U$0.773m.
U$m GROY: Corp G&A/admin expenses/project evaluation costs
4 share based comp
deprec
3.5 Prof fee
Employee costs
3 Corp admin
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25
source: company filings
When totaled up, this gives GROY and operating profit of U$0.523m for the quarter
GROY: Operating profit, per qtr
(NB: 4q23 without U$22.379m impairment)
26
475.7- 526.8- 457.2- 105.2-
86.3-
209.2-
40.2- 177.1- 878.1-
445.0- 216.0- 329.0-
669.1-
143.0 325.0 6.1
2.2
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 *32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3 tse52q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN calcs
In IKN845 two weeks ago, we estimated operating profit at U$0.9m so that number is slightly lower, but
that’s of very little concern. What matters at GROY is the trajectory and the way the company is doing what it
said it would do, moving into operational profit with revenues increasing quarter over quarter and with plenty
to come in 2026 and beyond. The fact we “missed” by U$400k is neither here nor there when the differences
will be counted in the millions in future years.
Over at the balance sheet there were no surprises, with assets dominated by the fixed asset book and cash
liquidity small but more than enough for the company’s needs.
GROY: Assets
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
This breakdown of the fixed assets by region show how the Canadian Malartic royalty is still its core holding
by some distance, worth over U$300m on its books. In its literature, GROY talked up the Malartic Odyssey
underground development zone where it holds a juicy NSR and how AEM is now working to bring that area
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m total fixed U$m GROY: Current assets
other current 14
cash+ST
12 other current
10 cash+ST
8
6
4
2
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25
source: company filings source: company filings
online as from 2027. Just that royalty will make a massive difference to its revenues once online. We also got
news about rhe exciting Ren project, part of Nevada Gold Mines (Barrick and Newmont), which is now under
development and due to start producing in 2027.
U$m GROY: Non-current asset breakdown
1000
Can Malartic Other Canada
900 USA Brazil
800 Mexico Bosnia & Herz
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25
source: company filings
As for liabilities, those were no-news-good-news as well:
GROY: Liabilities
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80
60
40
20
0
However, there is one small query beginning to show itself, as at the start of the year CEO Garofalo said that
the company would work on reducing its financial debt
but so far at least, there’s little to show for those
words (above right). Our final chart today is the
ongoing share count, at 170.71m as at end 2q25 and
expected to stay that way.
The reason we mention this is to point out what could
be the only thing that would put me off holding GROY
in the future. At the start of the year, CEO David
Garofalo pledged a “hands off” policy for the company,
allowing GROY to begin harvesting the fruits of
previous deals without going back to market and
spending more money. With the rapid raise in the
GROY share price in recent weeks, a CEO as mediocre as Garofalo may become tempted to use the new
equity to raise money for more deals, i.e. get his hands back on the controls. If that happens, there would be
three consequences:
1) The share count goes up
2) The idiot boss will once again overpay for royalty assets (the reason the stock did so badly in 2023
and 2024)
3) 3) I will sell my shares and walk away.
A placement would be a sure fire way to stop all momentum in its tracks and make sure it stays stopped for
an extended period. As long as Garofalo does nothing, GROY shares should continue to rise in value and with
my first U$3.30 price target now basically hit, I see no reason at all why the stock cannot get up to the same
relative valuation level enjoyed Metalla Royalty (MTA) and a 1.5X Price/Book ratio. That would put GROY at
27
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m GROY: Bank debt (revolver)
current liab bank debt
deferred tax liab other LT liab
source: company filings
0
263.9 844.9 888.9 139.9
864.71
130.01 246.9
746.42 475.42 29.42 321.62 49.52
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m
source: company filings
GROY: Shares out (m)
645.14 126.14
935.27
39.331 52.431 64.431 19.341 19.341 83.441 79.441 79.441 76.541 98.541 70.961 13.961 12.071 94.071 17.071 171
200
180
160
140
120
100 80
60
40
20
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 tse52q3
source: company financials, IKN ests
U$5.00 and that’s a very realistic target now, as long as they don’t touch the controls. He can draw his fat
salary and he can do all the podcasts his heart desires as far as I care, as long as he doesn’t mess with this
very good thing.
PS: A small sidebar to the Minera Alamos news last week: GROY owns a 0.5% NSR on Gold Rock.
Conclusion
IKN847 is done, we end with bullet points:
Being awash with cash in one’s trading portfolio isn’t a common thing, but that’s what it’s going to
feel like come this time next week so expect me to deploy at least some of the money sooner, rather
than later.
The decision to sell part of the Minera Alamos position was easier than you might imagine, though
being in profit on the trade certainly helps the cause. Going forward all options are available and if
MAI starts hitting the milestones, it’s not too difficult to imagine buying these share back again and
returning it to Top Pick status. Then again, if they miss on any milestone at the new US operations,
I’ll sell them all and walk away. There are no more excuses available.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if
required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/cpi-preview.html
(2) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2025/minera-alamos-announces-transformational-acquisition-of-producing-gold-complex-from-
equinox-and-appoints-jason-kosec-as-part-of/
(3) https://mineraalamos.com/site/assets/files/4272/minera_alamos_marketing_presentation_august_2025_final_version.pdf
(4) https://westredlakegold.com/west-red-lake-gold-provides-madsen-mine-operations-update-2/
(5) https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20250806.pdf
(6) https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2025/08/08/1174535/sernageomin-autoriza-retorno-el-teniente.html
(7) https://www.mdzol.com/politica/no-es-cobre-el-descubrimiento-la-minera-san-jorge-mendoza-n1306444
(8) https://www.elsol.com.ar/mendoza/alfredo-cornejo-sobre-el-proyecto-san-jorge-sera-el-primer-cobre-argentino-producido-para-
finales-del-2027/
(9) https://orecap.ca/news/orecap-announces-arrangement-agreement-and-interim-order/
(10) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmZkesgfNuo
(11) https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/markets/news/metals-copper-edges-higher-on-us-rate-cut-hopes-and-chinese-demand
(12) https://aldebaranresources.com/aldebaran-reports-the-results-from-seventeen-infill-holes-at-the-altar-copper-gold-project-in-san-
juan-argentina/
(13) https://wp-aldebaranresources-2023.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/2024/08/05133000/Aldebaran-Corporate-Presentation-
August-2025.pdf
28
(14) https://www.mining.com/oceanagold-hits-all-time-high-on-q2-results/
(15) https://mogotesmetals.com/vicuna-3d-geophysical-model-outlines-large-scale-anomalies-at-the-los-mogotes-target-cluster-adjacent-
to-filo-del-sol/
(16) https://x.com/BlackAlex58/status/1953265565356966053
(17) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeqH5tuzwfY
(18) https://www.goldroyalty.com/news/news-releases/gold-royalty-reports-second-quarter-results-achieves-record-revenue-and-
adjusted-ebitda
(19) https://www.goldroyalty.com/portfolio/gold-rock/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
29
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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