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The IKN Weekly
Week 846, August 3rd 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, “This was a weak employment report”, Which brings us to
silver.
Fundamental Analysis: Two sell decisions and one addition, AbraSilver (ABRA.to): Selling into a good
resource update, Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) 2q25 financials and a trade decision, Adding West Red Lake
Gold (WRLG.v).
Stocks to Follow: Eldorado Gold (EGO), AbraSilver (ABRA.to), West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v), i-80 Gold
Corp (IAUX) (IAU.to), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Rio2 Lid (RIO.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Hercules Metals (BIG.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Element 29 (ECU.v),
Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse), Pampa Metals (PM.cse), SolGold Plc (SOLG.l).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Agnico Eagle (AEM), New Gold (NGD).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Electrum Discovery (ELY.v)
Regional Politics: Updating the South American Presidential popularity list, Bolivia: Evo tells his supporters
to spoils their ballots, My nagging doubts about Milei in the upcoming Argentina elections.
Market Watching: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 2q25 financials, A final note on star turn NGEx Minerals
(NGEX.to).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m doing some significant portfolio realignment this coming week, with three trades planned:
 Selling my shares of AbraSilver (ABRA.to)
 Selling my shares of Eldorado Gold (EGO)
 Adding shares to the new position in West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v)
Details of those trades below in the main Fundies section. I also thought hard about opening on i-80 Gold
Corp after that stock experienced a price drop and is now almost back to the price I wanted in May this year,
but on consideration I’m going to wait and see how the market trades in the next couple of weeks. We’re still
in the Dog Days of August, after all.
In today’s edition
 Today’s intro tips its hat to the weak US Jobs report as the moment when the music may have
stopped.
 The house position regarding silver over the weeks and months has been clear and transparent; happy
to use the metal and its derivative stocks as a speculative vehicle, but it’s not my idea of a serious
investment medium and never will be. As such, these weak hands have reached a limit and after
hinting on the possibility in recent editions, this coming week I take profits on from main silver trade,
AbraSilver (ABRA.to).
 It’s coincidental, but after last week’s 2q25 financials from Eldorado Gold (EGO) I’ve also decided to
sell and book the profit in this trade as well. It’s going to return a profit but, unlike ABRA, EGO has
1

been an unsatisfactory trade, underperforming peers despite making a profit in cash terms. The job is
to find a better placed for the cash.
 In fact some of the cash from the ABRA and EGO sales already has a home earmarked, I’m buying
more shares of West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v) this coming week. That’s also in today’s main fundies
section, but the note is brief because we did the work on this stock just two weeks ago in IKN844. The
only things that’s changed since then is the share price, offering a cheaper entry and the chance to
average down.
 A monumental week for copper prices, in the USA market at least, when the Trump admin ran a
serious rug-pull on the Comex contracts by changing its plans on metals import tariffs. We consider the
effects, or lack of, in The Copper Basket.
 Plenty of other things in this weekend’s edition, including a check of the 2q25 numbers out of Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to), more applause for the move made by the latest Lundin hotpot stock NGEx
Minerals (NGEX.to) and politics bits and pieces, too. But if there’s one “minor story” to point your eyes
to, check out the notes on Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse) in the Copper Basket section today. It has the
look of a stealth winner in the making now it has the green light on its project from the Mendoza
environment people and the market doesn’t yet realize how important that might be.
“This was a weak employment report”
The IKN Weekly been reasonably consistent on our position regarding the US economy this year. First and
foremost it’s not our prime concern on these pages, as when it comes to macro influences on junior mining,
the price of gold matters most. However, the US economy drives (nearly) all things financial so, even though
I’m a rank on the subject and required to lean heavily on macro experts, it’s been a necessary subject.
Long story short, the rising headwinds mean been leery and concerned about a US-led slowdown, however
we’ve also banged hard on the drum of “Keep Dancing Til The Music Stops” when it comes to our
investments and trades, a touchstone that’s held us in good stead. Indeed, we recognize the bull run for all
metals hasn’t had the same thrust as in the early part of the year, but that’s not the same thing as saying the
fun is over. Last week may have seen the substantive change, the moment when the music stops (or at least
reaches the slow dancing at the end of the night). I don’t mind admitting it’s taken longer than I expected
either, as back in IKN834 in May we were already less concerned about US inflation data and more focused
on unemployment for signs of an economic slowdown. That weekend, the intro note boiled down to the
quote, “…we’re at the stage where inflation is a secondary macro reading to the prime worry, that of a rising
unemployment rate and ensuing economic slowdown.”
Which brings us to last week’s inflation and unemployment newsflow. We tackle them both.
US inflation in 2025: When US inflation went from “transitory” to “Houston we have a problem” back in
2022, these pages started tracking the evolution of US price indicators fairly closely, compiling and
commenting on the CPI, PPI and making mention of “The Fed’s Preferred” PCE indicator on a regular basis.
Again, our aim wasn’t to provide cutting edge US macro analysis or thoughts on how to trade Treasurys or
US denominated bonds, instead our focus was the standard one of metals prices (mostly gold, copper and
silver, as you’ve almost certainly realized already) We tracked
inflation up, we gave due space to the Fed’s tightening policy as it
tried to reel in the inflationary spiral, we noted its effect on the
gold price, we tracked it back down. We also know that when last
week’s “Core PCE” number dropped and caused headlines such as
“Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows price increases accelerated
in June amid tariff uncertainty” (1), it was difficult to take the dire
warnings too seriously. Here right is the core PCE tracking chart
from that report and with the best will in the world, it’s tough to
deduce we’re about to suffer another inflation pulse from the 2024
and 2025 squiggly line, particularly when compared to the fun in
2021 and 2022. If you prefer, this long-term chart of the
Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the dedicated BLS page (2)
2

shows inflation may not be down at the Fed’s nominal (in fact, pure fantasy) level of 2%, but it’s now back in
the range we witnessed for literally a decade.
Layman’s conclusion (because I am not your macro economist and never will be): I will never be a fan of
President Trump, but it’s difficult to argue against him on this subject, he has a good point when it comes to
lowering rates now and the Fed, which was happy enough to keep rates low for an extended period when
inflation ran at comparative levels post-GFC, looks behind the curve now. Why do they need to remain as
high as they are now? They fear a soaring economic growth that will cause hyperinflation? Even if that came
to pass, 2022 showed us ample evidence that the Fed has the toolbox to tackle an inflationary pulse, but with
the next dataset below, the chances of inflation spiraling out of control are even lower than they were on
Wednesday
US unemployment in 2025: So much for inflation, we now move to Friday and the moment the tide may
have turned, the BLS July employment report and to cut a long story short, we’ll use Bill McBride’s closing
paragraph in his “Comments on July Employment Report” from the same day (3):
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations and May and June
payrolls were revised down by 258,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment
population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 4.2%.
This was a weak employment report.
Weak is putting it mildly. President Trump blew a gasket on the news, (in)famously fired the head of the BLS,
and claimed the data were rigged by a Biden lackey. But however bad those previous month revisions were,
the data is extremely unlikely to be “rigged” to the extent POTUS claims, unemployment data is notoriously
noisy at the bets of times, these are not the best of times and while it is a new headwind for the current
administration, conspiracy theories using a dataset with clear rules that have been in operation for literally
decades…that’s just silly. However, you’ll note that the May and June downward revisions do fit into our
house theory that US employment rates are now the most important dataset, they also concur with our
original timing.
Layman’s conclusion (because I am not your macro economist and never will be): The likelihood of an
economic slowdown just jumped considerably. In turn, and alongside the political pressure being exerted by
the Oval Office on the (newly refurbished) Fed offices, we should now expect rate cuts in the near future.
Which brings us to silver
In the same vein as the US macro indicators and their implications for metals, our position on silver in 2025
has seen a series of intro notes in 2025 and should also be clear enough by now. We’re not repeating it all
here, and the three simple statements in IKN838 dated June 8th should be enough:
 Constructively bullish
 The potential to spike higher
 Real world supply and demand issues will cap the gains
We’ve also had a line in the sand at U$40/oz for the metal, so the recent high of U$39.51/oz spot just about
qualifies as my “spike to U$40/oz”, even though it didn’t quite make it to the exact number and it wasn’t the
near-parabolic action you’d want to see from a blow-off top. However, the 6.3% drop from the highs last
3

week fits in with our model and, taken in conjunction with last week’s macro news (see above), the result
and the implications are not what the true believer silver bull camp wants to see.
And I’m not a Silver True Believer. This desk’s firm conviction is that gold is a better investment vehicle than
silver and while I’m not against playing either, we boiled it down to the basic difference in the intro of IKN839
dated June 15th:
 Gold is an asset class
 Silver is a commodity
The recent data pointing to a slowdown in The USA and the increased likelihood that the dovish rates cycle is
about to begin is enough to tip my balance away from silver and more toward the safer shores of gold. And
with that, we close today’s intro section and get to the main event.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Two sell decisions and one addition
Today sees a significant portfolio re-balancing. In the next days I plan to sell two of the currently open larger
trades in AbraSilver (ABRA.to) and Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to). Those sales, plus the desire to take
advantage of a lower entry price, also mean I plan to add to my recently opened position in West Red Lake
Gold (WRLG.v). I didn’t expect to make two selling decisions in the same weekend in this way and what’s
more, the reasons behind them are distinct but it’s the way this particular cookie has crumbled so by this
time next weekend, I expect the Stocks to Follow table to have two fewer line items, plus one with a slightly
lower cost average.
Now for details but before diving in and for the TL:DR end of our esteemed readership, here’s the potted
rationale for all three trades:
 AbraSilver (ABRA.to): First and foremost, going forward I like gold more than silver (see above).
Secondly, it’s hit my price target (and more quickly than expected, too). Thirdly, the resource update last
week was positive, but it also means the next corporate milestone is at least one quarter into the future.
 Eldorado Gold (EGO): The 2q25 financials last week were better than recent quarters and the market
reacted well enough, without blowing the stock massively higher. However and after due consideration,
there are two reasons why I think there are better places for my money going forward.
 West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): The easiest decision of the three was to take some of the money due to
be generated by above two sales and use it to add to this new and still small position. The price drop last
week that allows a cheaper entry point and the opportunity to average down is a helpful bonus. doesn’t
get as many column inches as the sales calls)
So without further ado…
AbraSilver (ABRA.to): Selling into a good resource update
Two things to do in this note:
 Consider the resource update, as delivered to the market last week
 Make a trade decision, which has already been telegraphed above but we walk through it anyway
4

On Tuesday July 29th, our main and arguably our only silver trade at the moment, AbraSilver Resource Corp
(ABRA.to), announced (4) the latest update to its mineral resource estimate (MRE) for its flagship Diablillos
project in the province of Salta, close to the border with neighbouring province Catamarca, Argentina. The NR
provides plenty of information on the updated resource and several tables cut and slice the data in several
ways. It’s recommended reading for anyone long, we’ll just go with the main table here. Notes below:
 This new resource count uses the silver (U$27.50/oz) and gold (U$2,400/oz) base case prices as in the
previous update in 2023. Reasonable.
 It uses the same recovery rate assumptions for the main Tank Leach resource as in 2023, of 82.6% for
silver and 86.5% for gold. Also reasonable.
 It uses the same cost parameters as the 2023 MRE, specifically mining cost of U$1.94/t, processing cost
of U$22.97/t and G&A at U$3.32/t. Those were reasonable two years ago, but when the Feasibility Study
shows up next year we should expect some cost creep.
 The Tank Leach cut-off has dropped slightly to 39 g/t AgEq (was 45 g/t AgEq), which implies a cost cut
of around U$34.38/t. As the cost assumptions total U$28.23/t, that’s okay but again, there’s not a lot of
wriggle room once we consider the likelihood of cost creep in the FS.
 However, the average M+I Tank Leach grade of 139 g/t still compares very well to the cut-off, even if we
use the old 45g number, so I’m splitting hairs a little on the drop in the cut. This is still an economically
very robust deposit and likely eventual mine plan.
Finally, ABRA has added a new dimension to its Diablillos resource this time with the advent of the “Heap
Leach” oxides resource. Essentially, it has re-categorized some of the low grade rock and now thinks it will be
able to run it economically in a separate heap leaching circuit. That’s fair enough and the main advantage,
aside from the cash generated once in operation, is that it should reduce capital costs by re-directing some of
the rock it needs to move to mine the open pit at Oculto/JAC and turn it from waste to ore (we can use that
word, by CIM rules the company cannot). For comparative purposes (eg see below) this is best considered
separately to the main Oculto/JAC tonnage.
The drilling cut-off used by ABRA for this resource is March 30, 2025. This means the resource as announced
last week does not include recently announced assays, some of which were market movers such as the April
29th NR which extended mineralization at the far (South West) end of JAC, or the May 20th NR (5) which got
the market buzzing and eyes returning to the high-grade zones of the original Oculto zone (and its “treasure”
zone at depth) when it cut 31m of 10.0 g/t gold, include 6m at 41.9 g/t gold. We add this as a reminder that
1) the Diablillos resource is almost certain to grow further than last week’s resource (that April 29th cut came
at the very edge of the known system and conceptual pit shell) and 2) the grade shows a powerful system at
work. There’s a lot to like about Diablillos, which is why I bought shares earlier this year, of course.
In order to better visualize the resource update, here are
mmt
ABRA: 43-101 resource tonnage evolution
some comparative charts of Diablillos over the four most 110
100
recent resource estimates published by the company,
90
specifically in September 2021, October 2022, November 80 incl heap leach
M+I resource
2023 and then July 2025 (i.e. last week). First up the 70
60
resource tonnage (right), which has jumped by almost 50
20m metric tonnes in this latest update. That’s impressive 40 73.129
30 51.314 53.257
5 20 41.193
10
0
Sep 2021 Oct. 2022 Nov. 2023 July 2025
source: company filings

and mainly due to the expansion of the JAC zone, now an integral part of the open pit shell.
As for the resource, we cut and slice three ways. First here’s the overall silver equivalent (AgEq) evolution,
with the main Tank Leach resource expanding to 327.08 m oz AgEq (we remind readers that estimated cash
revenues from the Diablillos economic model are split roughly 70% silver, 30% gold). The new heap leach
resource gets the M+I grand total to a spit under 350m oz AgEq. Overall grade has dropped by an average of
12 g/t, to 139 g/t AgEq
ABRA: 43-101 resource Silver Equivalent (Moz)
The next charts shows silver only, the main resource at 186m oz Ag at an average grade of 79 g/t Ag
Here’s the gold-only resource, which has expanded but more modestly by around 175k oz to 1.553m oz Au.
That’s because most of the new resource tonnage has come from the JAC zone, which is predominately a
silver resource and with much less gold involved. Also notable here is the 162koz gold added by the heap
leach assumption:
Overall, this was a solid resource update that fulfilled the promise of the JAC zone and justified the
company’s focused drilling campaign at that target through 2023, 2024 and the first part of 2025. The
improvement in tonnage and contained ounces of silver are the two best results, the modest boost to the
gold resource is at an acceptable level, plus the new heap leach resource is a welcome addition to the project
that, come the FS next year, is bound to help with project economics (the less waste you move as pre-strip,
6
33.061
25.512 90.852
80.723
AgEq g/t ABRA: 43-101 resource silver eq (AgEq) evolution
Moz AgEq
400 160 M+I
350 incl heap leach 140 incl heap leach
300 M+I 120 139
250 100
200 80 151
150 60 121 131
100 40
20
50
0
0
Sep 2021 Oct. 2022 Nov. 2023 July 2025
Sep 2021 Oct. 2022 Nov. 2023 July 2025
source: company filings source: company filings
Moz Ag ABRA: 43-101 resource silver evolution (Moz) g/t Ag ABRA: 43-101 resource silver grade evolution
100
220
200 incl heap leach 90 M+I
180 M+I 80 incl heap leach
160 70 79
140 60
120
50
10 6 8 0 0 0 109.37 148.275 185.994 3 4 0 0 68 66 87
40 90.165 20
20 10
0
0
Sep 2021 Oct. 2022 Nov. 2023 July 2025
Sep 2021 Oct. 2022 Nov. 2023 July 2025
source: company filings source: company filings
ABRA: 43-101 resource gold evolution (Moz) g/t Au ABRA: 43-101 resource gold grade evolution
1
M+I
0.9 incl heap leach
0.8
0.7
0.6 0.66
0.5
0.4 0.76 0.79 0.79
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Sep 2021 Oct. 2022 Nov. 2023 July 2025
source: company filings
200.1
792.1 63.1
355.1
Moz Au
2
incl heap leach
M+I
1.5
1
0.5
0
Sep 2021 Oct. 2022 Nov. 2023 July 2025
source: company filings

the more attractive the upfront capital number, even though there won’t be any real cost difference between
moving the dirt from one place to another and putting it on a leach pad instead of a sterile waste dump. The
only quibbles I’d have at this stage are the small drop in the cut-off assumption (presumably due to JAC zone
rock being cheaper to move on average) and the recovery assumptions for the heap leach resource, as 80%
for silver looks high to me (silver leach kinetics tend to be
a lot slower). But those are minor issues and the main
takeaway, that of what’s now known as the Tank Leach
(i.e. Oculto and JAC main resource) improving by 68.99m
oz AgEq to 327.08m oz, or 26.7%, is a good result.
As for the market reaction, that went well enough as seen
in the ten-day chart (right) comparing our trade with the
main silver producer ETF (SIL). Tuesday saw a pop on the
news and while the overall result was modest come
Friday, it was modestly positive. That makes sense, as the
market expected the update and expected more tonnage
and ounces, so there was no vast surprise but when the
MRE came, it was better than the median expectation.
The trade decision
Assuming a normal market, I’m selling my shares in AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to) this week and taking
profits. There are three reasons why, presented here in order of importance:
1) I want to move my precious metals exposure out of silver. For sure I might be wrong and the
Jekyll&Hyde metal goes on to rocket upward without me, but there are enough signals out there for
me to get leery about its near-term and mid-term future. Within 49c, we’ve reached my nominal
target for the metal and the recent pullback is, for the first time, accompanied by real macro
headwinds that suggest an economic slowdown. That backdrop prefers gold over silver and, being a
cabbage-hand holder of silver.
2) My target got taken out last month. While slightly annoyed I didn’t take profits at that exact time and
get the C$6+ prices, the decision to watch a while longer wasn’t silly. That it coincided with a near-
term top in the silver juniors is a small slice of bad luck. However, I cannot complain art all about
how this trade has worked out and if I end up cashing out next week without a strict double on my
money, I won’t be shedding any tears (I’d like C$5,46 or above however, it would help my OCD).
3) From here, ABRA won’t have so many price catalysts for the next year. The two big expected
moments are 1) the EIA permit approval, which is slated by the company to arrive at the end of this
year, then in mid-2026 we’ll get the FS which will then dovetail into the presumed financing and
construction decision for the project (which needs to come quickly after to make sure Diablillos
qualifies for the RIGI incentive scheme). Those are important moments, but aside those ABRA will
now go into the heavy lifting period that comes before a FS appear, that involves serious hard work
in-company, but less public exposure.
Those are the main reasons to sell now, it’s also worth noting that the money raised from the presumed sale
next week won’t stay as treasury long. The first job is to buy some more WRLG.v and that happens this
week, but even if I get my sale timing wrong and ABRA duly rockets further North in 4q25 without me, the
opportunity cost should (should) be limited as the money will be in another junior vehicle, most likely a
goldie, that should (should) run higher with the crowd.
As for risks, aside the potential for calling silver wrong and watching it fly to U$50/oz and beyond without
me, the main risk of selling now is to miss out if the offer to buy ABRA comes in form a third party. In my
view hat’s the most significant risk I’m taking here, as there’s little doubt ABRA is up for sale and Diablillos is
a project that will suit plenty of producer companies (e.g. Fortuna Mining, also in Salta province at its Lindero
mine). Let’s also note before closing out that the original plan was to hold the stock until the buyout came
and I’m now going against that. For example, at the start of June in IKN838 I wrote that I’d be staying long
ABRA until it was bought out, but at the time it was a C$4.33 stock and I didn’t expect it to zoom the way it
did and take out my price target a few days later. In other words, part of the reason to sell today is the
speed of its success.
7

The bottom line: I am not your True Believer in silver and never will be. With the solid win from AbraSilver
(ABRA.to) now staring at me and the silver market not moving in the same dynamic way it was doing a
couple of months ago, I’m more comfortable taking profits and moving the proceeds into gold-centric stories
going forward. The main reason for selling is a pure portfolio management decision, there’s no negatives to
speak of around ABRA and the resource update last week was another feather in its cap. In the world of
silver juniors, this company stands out as one of, if not the best company and project on the market and if it
goes higher from here without me, I will not be at all surprised. However, risk management takes priority and
the “least worst” method of running the recommended stocks list here at The IKN Weekly, i.e. eating my own
food, means that when I sell the stock leaves the active coverage list no matter how good or prospective it
might be.
At 152.5m shares out at a share price of C$5.38 this
weekend, ABRA runs a market cap of C$820.5m (U$595m)
as at this weekend. For that you get C$40m cash and a
silver equivalent resource priced at around U$1.50/oz in-
situ. That’s neither cheap nor expensive on an absolute
basis, but at this stage of development is a clumsy valuation
tools and what really matters from here on are project
valuation metrics. Usefully ABRA supplied this table (right) in
its most recent corporate presentation out last week (6)
including a spot prices column that values ABRA at 0.32X
NPV as at end July. We do know that if ABRA finds a buyer
it won’t be able to command 1X NPV, equally if an offer
shows up tomorrow it won’t be based on spot prices (sorry, life’s like that). On balance, selling in “The Fives”
doesn’t look like a bad deal at this stage. I am selling my shares in AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to) next
week and taking profits.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) 2q25 financials and a trade decision
As noted on several occasions in recent editions, my trade in the Tier 2 producer Eldorado Gold (EGO)
(ELD.to) underperformed for most of 2025, with one period around the turn of last quarter when it made me
happy for a couple of weeks and played catch-up to peers. Then after due consideration, four weeks ago in
IKN842 dated July 6th I put the trade under review, deciding to give EGO until the filing of its 2q25 financials
before taking a close look, considering its forward guidance for production and the state of the key build-out
at Skouries, then making a decision as to hold or sell the trade. With the advent of its 2q25 numbers on
Thursday evening (7), today is the day of the review and decision and we have four things to do:
1) Check out the main production and financial results for 2q25
2) Consider what we’ve learned about forward guidance for the rest of 2025, plus the expected
development of Skouries this year and 2026
3) Run an updated valuation target
4) Make a call on whether to hold or sell
8

The 2q25 results
The hack on whether EGO had a good quarter is to consider
its price action compared to the GDX benchmark, so let’s set
the scene that way by offering the ten-day chart (right). An
upbeat response. The jungledrums were already good going
into the report post-close Thursday, then Friday at the bell
saw some enthusiastic buyers but as it turned out, the miners
had a subdued Friday and EGO quickly saw the uber-bullish
sentiment fade. All the same, it beat the street last week and
that’s no mean achievement, especially for a stock that
disappointed earlier this year when filing its 1q25 and really
took a dump on its 4q24 numbers in January and February.
For the reasons, we start with production:
EGO: gold production breakdown, per qtr
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
9
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
Oz Au
Kisladag Lamaque
Efemcukuru Olympias
source: company filings
The 2q25 production of 133,769 oz (sales of 131,489 oz at a received average of U$3,270/oz) were an
improvement on the somewhat lacklustre 1q25 and indeed as the above chart shows, the best “non Q4”
quarter of recent years (as seen, the EGO Q4 is nearly always its best quarter of the year).
Taking that mine-by-mine, first Kisladag produced an above-guidance 46,058 oz, though we were guided
lower for the upcoming Q3 by the company during the conference call due to mine sequencing and expected
lower grade ore for the next period.
EGO: Kisladag Au prod, per qtr
63133 97792 37972 14773 70304 06173 08143 91273 19264 32573 09983 48014
38465
91344 85064
60000
50000
40000
30000 20000
10000
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
Oz Au
source: company filings
A good quarter from Lamaque, with 50,640 oz produced:
EGO: Lamaque Au prod, per qtr
45315 77333 71964 45424 94315 48873 54783 12824 91665 99224 19374 60134
24736
83404 04605
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
Oz Au
source: company filings

Efemcukuru performed as per guidance, with 21,093 oz produced
EGO: Efemcukuru Au prod, per qtr
10
13622 75012 39722 37422 26312 82991 44622 24112 47322 10581 79322 49791 15491 70391 39012
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
Oz Au
source: company filings
Finally Olympias, which still lagged slightly through Q2 due to the strike action of the previous quarter, but
the company noted good production numbers at the end of the quarter and in July, so we can presume this
asset is now back on schedule going forward
EGO: Olympias Au prod, per qtr
32551
6998
97751 32161 53451 16571
66831
84881 28871 88781
14531
11212 29951
92811
87951
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000 10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
Oz Au
source: company filings
Overall, the first half of 2025 saw production of 249,662 oz
gold (plus the by-product metals from Olympias) which on a
straight line basis puts it at the top of its guidance range of
460k oz to 500k oz in 2025. However, EGO didn’t adjust
guidance this quarter and make it reasonably clear it was
expecting a softer Q3 so even if we get the normal Q4 boost
we’re still expecting EGO to meet-not-beat its guidance this
year. As such, we’ll stick to our forecast of 485,000 oz.
As for financial results, the slightly better than expected
production combined with the excellent market price for gold
and resulted in top line sales of U$451,724m, a new
quarterly record (though that shouldn’t have been a surprise.
EGO: Earnings overview
453.922
63.23
558.922
70.93
552.542
68.24
730.403 17.56 769.752 01.06 141.792 54.09 857.133 001
517.534
961 542.553
32.411 427.154 09.571
500
450
400
350
300
250 200 150
100
50
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
EGO:Annual production & updated 3-year guidance
U$m
revenues
gross margin
mine op earnings
op. earnings
source: company filings
Costs were up, with EGO reporting production costs of U$162.16m, the company putting the blame on higher
input prices, higher cost of labour and the gold price run resulting in higher than budgeted royalty payments
to the government of Turkey (which is a nice problem to have, I suppose).
119574 519354 461584 392025 000584
000536 000096
Oz Au
800000
old guidance
700000
new guidance
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e
source: company filings

EGO: production costs per qtr
Mine operating earnings of U$223.603m and operating earnings ofU$175,903m were both records, but not by
much compared to 4q24 and its higher sales
numbers. For the record, a tax deferral allowed
EGO to post net earnings of U$134.804m, also a
record, but with EGO in growth mode the best
metric continues to operating earnings. On a
per-share basus, operating earnings came to
86c and that’s a forward multiple of 6.1X to this
weekend’s share price of U$21.00. That’s on the
cheap side of the line and one reason to like the
stock at this price
Meanwhile over at the balance sheet, we’re
happy to see the expansion of both assets and
liabilities as Skouries is built out. The company reported a good rhythm of development at Skouries and
spending on track. In the Conference Call, we were guided to expect 3q25 as the last major capex quarter,
with a reduced level in 4q25, then final spending in the first part of 2026 as the mine goes into
commissioning phase and then fully on line. A draw down on its main debt facility brought the long-term debt
total to U$1.157Bn.
However, liquidity remains optimal despite the expanding debt and large capex spend cadence. EGO has
U$1.078Bn (with a B) on hand in cash and equivalents, more than enough to see it through to the end of
Skouries. During the ConfCall, the CFO was asked why they had continued to draw on the debt facility
despite having this large cash cushion and
his response was that the debt deal was on
very favourable terms and the cost of doing
it this way was minimal compared to the
financial advantages it brought. That may
mean EGO has earmarked cash for other
purposes (buying AMX perhaps?) but at
least the response was logical and coherent. 11
69.611 65.801 8.211 81.011 12.811 65.401 23.901 94.321 22.221 39.901
711
39.511 90.631 10.321 18.721 32.141 21.271 13.841 61.261
200
180
160
140
120 100 80
60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
EGO: Mine Op Earnings and Op Earnings, per qtr
357.75
753.23 377.84 470.93
343.66
268.24
895.59 417.56 284.08 690.06 98.901 454.09
84.621
169.99 21.091 88.861 77.641
32.411
6.322
9.571
U$m
250
225 mine op earnings
op. earnings 200
175 150 125
100
75
50
25
0
1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25
source: company filings
1.40 EGO: mine op earnings and op earnings per share
1.10 1.20
0.93
1.00
0.71
0.80 0.62
0.47 0.54 0.82 0.86
0.60 0.39
0.31 0.31 0.33
0.40 0.21 0.26 0.24 0.56
0.15 0.44 0.49
0.20
0.32 0.29
0.00 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.11
0.02
-0.20
-0.08
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
mine op earn/share
op earn/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests
EGO: Assets breakdown, per qtr
9.5263 7.0563 9.2263 3.6953 1.8163 3.7463 2.3763 6.5773 1283 8.7193
1.7004 8.8114 2.5424
7.3244
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m EGO: Liabilities breakdown, per qtr
2200
cash&eq inventory
other current prop/plant/equip 2000
other fixed 1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 800
600
400
200
0
source: company filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m
current liab LT debt Other LT liab
source: company filings
EGO: Treasury and working cap
86.434 43.394 69.963 90.064 63.603 91.114 47.413 25.124 82.262 51.514 85.654 10.495 26.674 78.736 74.045 91.656 57.415 93.946 50.595 29.327 95.676
37.038 8.658
0701
41.879 7.1001 6.8701 5.0211
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400 300
200
100
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m
cash&eq
working cap
source: company filings

That puts the book value at U$4.0865Bn and with EGO buying back some shares in the quarter, the new
shares out total of 203.553m gives a BV/share of U$20.08.
EGO: Book Value
Deriving from that, this puts the new price/book at 1.05X
and with that, EGO has achieved our first milestone target
of getting back above the 1X line. A ration below 1.0
implies and dysfunctional company that is not valued at its
asset worth, the type of condemnation normally reserved
for loss-making companies or those that have refused over
the years to write down the value of assets they overpaid
for (in purchase price, capex spent or whatever). EGO
didn’t deserve that stain, it’s been running as a regular
profit and this quarter underscored its cash generating
credentials so, debt pile for the Skouries build or not, it
was worth more than the 0.8X levels it got last year.
Overall, EGO filed a decent set of financials and was worth the lift it got on Friday. For the record, it was the
only stock of our ten in the 2025 Producer Basket to return a week.over-week win, even including Agnico and
that eye-popping net profit it returned. Zero complaints about he 2q25 results or the market’s reception for
the numbers.
Skouries update: In both the 2q25 MD&A and the Conference Call midday Friday, we were told the
following about its major growth project at Skouries:
 It was on schedule (i.e. its revised schedule as announced in February this year), with commissioning
expected to begin in 1q26 and commercial production at the end of 2q26, i.e. this time next year.
 Production guidance for 2026 was confirmed at the previously estimated 135k oz to 155k oz for 2026,
with the production weighted toward Q4 as the mine gets into full gear.
 It was on its revised budget, despite the decision to bring forward spending on vehicle plant from late
2026 to before the mine opens, which adds U$154m to the bill.
 EGO has more than enough cash on hand to finish the Skouries build out (on that we have zero
argument).
 The mine is 70% complete as at end 2q25, with a full worker roster now on site.
Now it’s time to pick holes in what they said about Skouries (or what they didn’t say) Firstly, colour me
cynicial but the decision to accelerate “…the purchase of higher capacity mobile mining equipment (originally
expected to be purchased post commercial production as part of the contract mining fleet), resulting in $154
million of accelerated operational capital prior to commercial
production” (quote/unquote) smacks of stealth capex overrun to
this desk.
Secondly, that Skouries is estimated 70% complete feels as
though its behind schedule and I expected a bigger number than that. This chart (right) tracks the quarterly completion estimates
and after its slow period between 3q24 and 1q25 due to a lack
12
9.6523 1.8223 4.0613 9.0023 7.3423 3.2143 9.6043 2153 5.0853 9.3663 2.2673 4.8883 9.4893 5.6804
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500 2000
1500
1000
500
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m EGO: Shares Out
source: company filings
8.481 7.481 7.481 8.481 9.481 9.202 9.202 1.302 0.402 8.402 9.402 9.402 5.502 6.302
240
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80
60
40
20
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
EGO: Price/Book ratio 2021 to date
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: NYSE, EGO data, IKN calcs
EGO: Skouries Project completion
%43 %83 %34 %94 %45 %06 %66 %07
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% 30% 20%
10%
0%
3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25
source: company filings

of manpower compared to the plan, you would have though EGO could have cracked on more than just
adding 4% to the completion estimate. With 30% left to do in the next four quarters, it’s going to have to
accelerate its progress just to reach the 100% number, that’s aside from the tweaking and troubleshooting
that always accompanies a mine in its commissioning phase. All that after a 2q25 which was supposedly at
full tilt, if the company’s comments are to be believed, but added just 4% to the total. It doesn’t add up.
Next, the way in which the company c-suite failed to answer multiple analyst questions on exactly what to
expect and when from Skouries next year, aside the general arm-wave of “mid 2025 commercial production”
without ever defining what they meant by that term, felt as though they were trying to avoid giving a straight
answer for good reasons.
Finally, we’ve always assumed the 2026 production guidance for Skouries would be weighted to Q4, but with
the first half now assumed to be “minimal production” and Q3 only ramping through the 70% line (when
exactly we don’t know), it smacks of a company delaying a production miss they can already envisage.
The Skouries bottom line: I came away unconvinced EGO is going to deliver Skouries on time and budget.
That won’t be a problem in the immediate future, but if my suspicions crystallize into fact it’s going to rob the
share price of that coveted re-rating moment in the first months of 2026.
A valuation for EGO: As noted on too many occasions, I’ve spent the last two quarters scratching my head
as to why EGO hasn’t done what I expected it to do in this uber-bullish gold price environment and re-rated
hard. I bought this stock at a cost average of U$15.93 because I expected it to do better than its peers,
better than GDX etc. Instead it’s been a laggard and there are several ways of showing that, the easiest
being to scroll down to the Producer Basket section this weekend and note EGO is up 41.2% YTD, while GDX
is up 52.5% in the same period. This tier 2 shouldn’t be lagging the benchmark by 10%, it should be 10%
ahead! At least! Or so went my opinion, but a couple of months ago I received a mail from reader ML who
asked about my decision to value EGO on a Book Value basis. To excerpt his words and get to the nub of the
argument, “…wouldn't it be much better to price a miner on DCF? I mean, BV is primarily derived from the
money they spent, not the money they're gonna make.”
The more I thought about his mail, the more I realized he was right. It was fair enough to identify a stock
being undervalued on its asset book unfairly, it was another matter to extrapolate that forward and nail a
price projection on what it might be worth once given its due by the market. So I ranked up a DCF model and
used the following criteria:
 Guidance of 485k for 2025, 635k oz for 2026 as Skouries gets into gear and then 690k oz for all
following years
 Using those numbers and the current EGO gold reserve count, a useful life of 17 years (more than
enough to get a handle on it
 A 2025 AIS C of U$1,500/oz, U$1,400/oz in 2026, then an average of U$1300/ozs for all future years.
 Gold prices that average U$3,300/oz going forward
 An effective tax rate of 20%
 DD&A that runs at its current rate, then adds a wild-ish estimated $10m per year for future years
 Estimate annual sustaining capex of U$400m
 Cash and debt totals as per 2q25 (see above)
 Shares out as per end 2q25 (see above)
With those inputs done, we then apply four different discount rates
 At a 5% discount, EGO shows a DCF/share of U$30.17
 At an 8% discount, EGO shows a DCF/share of U$22.82
 At a 10% discount, EGO shows a DCF/share of U$19.19
 At a 15% discount, EGO shows a DCF/share of U$12.95
In other words, the only way to truly justify a continued investment in EGO using the DCF method was to
either play with the numbers and get more generous (though frankly assuming U$3,300/oz gold going
forward is being very generous already), or using a low discount rate such as 5%, which doesn’t represent
either EGO’s true cost of capital (after all, an investor can get 5% just putting their cash into US Treasurys
13

these days) or its true political risk (Turkey and Greece aren’t the worst jurisdictions out there, but they’re
hardly the best either. And of course it gets worse if you drop the gold price assumption to U$3,000/oz for
the long-term, the model than estimates fair value of EGO shares using an 8% discount rate at just U$16.52.
I tried to dismiss ML’s argument and get round it by considering cash flow and EPS, but the more I thought
about it the more I realized that the debt pile worked up by EGO was going to sit on early year margins
heavily, so that by the time it had got down to a more manageable level the best earning years and potential
for rapid share price appreciation would be behind the company. Ot if you like, the very reason I hated on
Sandstorm Gold after it added that U$500m welter burden of debt to its books in 3q22, the reason I correctly
identified it as an underperformer all through 2023 and 2024, was the reason EGO hadn’t out-performed this
year. And me, fixated on the way the market wasn’t giving EGO the credit it was due for a decent balance
sheet and profitable operations, missed it completely.
Bottom line: The Eldorado Gold (EGO) 2q25 came in well, the market was duly impressed and while the
move wasn’t a massive one, it did managed to out-perform peers in what was a difficult week for mining
stocks. That’s all good, but Q2 was also the moment I’d slated as the “put-up-or-shut-up” financials, the
chance EGO would have to change my mind about the error I’d made in valuing it on a set of backward-
looking numbers connected to its underlying asset value, instead of its forward looking numbers that
balanced its expected profitability against its financial obligations. And while Q2 was good, it’s not enough to
move the line away from the cruel reality; EGO isn’t going to outperform peers, not with that debt to service
and even if Skouries comes online smoothly in 2026. Which is the other point to make today, as while the
company did its best to make things sound good, there are too many small signposts pointing to a growth
project that’s not going to hit its marks in 2026. Not exactly, anyway.
Put those together, then add the fact that The IKN Weekly doesn’t exist to cover large market cap producers
and only made an exception in the case of EGO because it seemed particularly undervalue at the time (on its
backward-looking data) and the conclusion is fairly simple: I’m going to sell my shares and put the money to
use in other places. I am selling and taking profits on Eldorado Gold this coming week.
Adding West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v)
Our final segment in today’s main Fundies section is going to be as brief as possible. There are three
components to this trade decision, starting with this:
At the time I mentioned that I probably paid too much at 85c for my first slug of WRLG shares and so that
has proved. This weekend’s 79c price allows the opportunity to buy a bigger amount and average down
meaningfully.
Secondly, the rationale for buying WRLG.v, as laid out in IKN844 two weeks ago. The only thing that’s
changed since then is the share price (and the price of gold, but hey…)
Last but not least, my portfolio balance: With the decision to sell two of the larger precious metals trades on
our Stocks to Follow list and in my personal portfolio, there’s too much cahs and not enough exposure to gold
if I don’t make any further purchases. So with WRLG a new position and still at foothold levels, it was very
easy to allot part of the incoming cash to shares here. Put those three together and I’m a buyer of WRLG.v
shares this week.
14

Stocks to Follow
Considering the drops seen in plenty of mining stocks, be they precious metals or industrial, it was always
going to be a negative week for our Stock to Follow list but it could have been worse. There were only three
winners (MAI.v, EGO, MARI.to) but all three were larger position in my personal portfolio and two unchanged
stocks (SRL.v, RPX.v), but the biggest losers were at least at the lower end of the list. The big hits were
taken by Patagonia (PGDC.v down 20.0%), Surge Copper (SURG.v down 19.4%) and i-80 Gold (IAUX down
8.9%), but most of the others were small losers inside their established trading ranges.
There are currently 18 names on our Stocks to Follow list, two fewer than our self-imposed maximum. Of
those, 15 of those carry at least some of my personal money. Fourteen are in the green, four are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.46 71.4% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$1.46 82.5% Fenix build and re-rate on
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO SELLING U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.00 31.8% deploying funds elsewhere
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$2.15 39.6% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$9.80 221.3% Quality Cu dev, FS due
AbraSilver ABRA.to SELLING C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$5.38 97.1% taking profits out of Ag
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$2.68 91.4% Going to U$3+, still cheap
West Red Lake WRLG.v ADDING C$0.85 20-Jul-25 C$0.79 -7.1% Adding this week
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.125 56.3% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.19 10-Jun-25 C$0.215 13.2% proj.generator, Organullo spec
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Set-24 C$0.085 -22.7% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v spec buy $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.145 38.1% bulk copper in good address
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.07 16.7% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
i-80 Gold IAUX WATCH U$0.50825 18-May-25 U$0.5638 10.9% Close to buyable again
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.06 200.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.18 111.8% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.15 -66.7% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Eldorado Gold (EGO): SELLING. As seen above in today’s main fundies section, I’m going to pull the plug
on this trade. Can never sniff too hard at a winner, but it’s underperformed and I think there will be better
places to deploy this cash going forward.
15

AbraSilver (ABRA.to): SELLING. Also as seen in today’s fundies section above, another quick confirmation
note on the decision to sell and take profits on ABRA. A good win, it hit my price target and then I got a bit
greedy and the action since then, particularly in the main payable metal silver, has me with cabbage hands
on the trade. Same order as EGO, I won’t hold the resulting cash in treasury for long and will prefer gold
exposure to silver exposure when moving it back into the market.
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): ADDING. The final quick note to back up today’s main fundamentals
section, the decision to add to this recently opened trade and get more in at a better entry price was
straightforward. See above for more.
IAUX: Working cap, per qtr
i-80 Gold Corp (IAUX) (IAU.to): BACK UNDER
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION. Subject of the analysis in
IKN835 dated May 18th “Why i-80 Gold Corp (IAU.to)
(IAUX) is now worth a gamble”, the subsequent price action
that saw IAUX run +40% in the first part of June had me
kicking myself for being too timid. I thought the potential
for a trade had gone, left IAUX on the Watch List just in
case and now, suddenly, its sell-off last week has opened
the door and it’s looking potentially buyable again.
In fact I’ve been considering buying straight away and
making this a second purchase alongside WRLG.v next week
(I’ll certainly have the cash to deploy) but instead, have
decided to tempt fate and maybe make the same dumb
error I made in May. So I’ll just be watching this stock for
the next week, but its current price and the potential for a
near-term trade has brought it back to the centre of my
radar as a potential trade
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Wednesday saw ARG file
its 2q25 financials and we cover those in Market Watching,
below. Meanwhile in other news, two things:
1) Perhaps due to the pre-earnings blackout period, perhaps due to the price hike, perhaps a combo of both
reasons, but whatever it was ARG didn’t buy back any shares in July according to its dedicated website page
(8) and, with a few derivatives made whole, the share count this weekend stands at 161.491m
2) It’s rather callous to take serious accident at the El Teniente mine in Chile which has claimed the lives of
six workers and reduce it to a capitalist talking point. I’m going to do just that, but not before sending sincere
condolences to the family and loved ones of those killed, as well as wishing a full and speedy recovery for the
(at least) nine injured due to the underground collapse. That done, we note that El Teniente (DET) is the
feeder to Amerigo’s plant and the source of its fresh tailings supply. With production suspended for the last
few days and no clarity on when it might re-start, we may see a slight negative effect on ARG’s 3q25
production figures when they are posted in October. However, ARG has two sources of feed, the other being
the legacy tailings from DET (Cauquenes) and they’ll be able to lean more heavily on that for the duration.
Feed can’t be switched over 100% and if the production stoppage continues we may see some effect, but it’s
unlikely to be serious and not something long-term holders need
to worry about.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): In a tough week for copper
names, MARI was one of the few established copper
exploreco/developer stocks to return a winning week (see also
NGEX in Market Watching today) and that was as much to do with
the lack of sellers as anything else.
Up over 100% in three months, that’s a good looking chart.
16
43.8-
476.43
92.41-
172.7
53.52- 23.42-
950.31
55.11- 57.13- 97.04-
09
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2
U$m
source: company filings

Rio2 Lid (RIO.v): Positive news from our Top Pick last week, which started with confirmation that stream
backer Wheaton (WPM) had forwarded the next U$50m tranche of its funding, which means construction and
development of Fenix can continued fully funded. Then Thursday brought more news (8) under the title line
“RIO2 PROVIDES MINE CONSTRUCTION AND CORPORATE UPDATE” (their caps not mine) with two main
news items:
Firstly, the mine build out is going as planned, with first ore (I can use that word, even if they can’t)
scheduled to hit the pads this month of August, this is good news and a little further down the NR, RIO.v
gave us a milestones list to consider:
· Start of mining mineral and stacking ore on leach pad- August 2025
· Finalization of the PLS pond - August 2025
· Installation of all three electrical switch rooms – August 2025
· Commissioning of the ADR Plant - November 2025
· Completion of Mine Expansion Study – December 2025
· First gold pour - January 2026
That’s good news. Secondly, Rio2 is about to become a Dot
Tee Oh company, with company receiving conditional
approval from the TSX and the stock about to graduate to
the main board. On asking the company, I was told that
there’s no had and fast date (it’s not the company’s final
decision, after all) but it should happen “in the next two
weeks”. This is an important development and will open RIO
to qualify for a new set of insto portfolios.
In trading RIO.v lost 10c and hit the same headwinds as
most peers. That’s what happens sometimes, here’s RIO vs GDXJ over the last ten days to illustrate.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-one weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 14.88% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 334.62 11.15 61.1%
2 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 279.21 564.00 2.02 41.3%
3 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 174.6 391.10 2.24 52.4%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 367.01 2.16 13.7%
5 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 354.46 2.16 13.7%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 289.21 2.32 13.2%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.516 224.01 1.09 47.3%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 261.543 185.70 0.71 29.1%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 173.377 84.09 0.485 -20.3%
10 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 72.68 0.48 -28.4%
11 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 211.153 70.74 0.335 109.4%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 124.195 65.82 0.53 -15.9%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 20.64 0.08 -27.3%
14 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 117.73 20.01 0.17 -46.0%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 15.44 0.44 -26.7%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg 14.88%
17

The Copper Basket average lost 2.8% on the week, with stocks dragged down by the “fun” we saw in US
copper trading (see below for more) In total four stocks gave week-over-week gains (SOLG.l, ECU.v, KBX.cse,
PM.cse) and of those, we salute the big percentage
The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
gains recorded by Pampa Metals (PM.cse up 31.4%) and 20%
SolGold (SOLG.l up 27.7%), it would have been a lot 15%
worse for the basket average if it weren’t for those two. 10%
One other stock finished the week unchanged (ATX.v) 5%
and that means ten losers and I’m not going to list them 0%
all, instead we note the biggest drops seen by Trilogy -5%
(TMQ.to down 19.9%), Hercules (BIG.v down 17.4%), -10%
Hot Chili (HCH.v down 12.7%), American Eagle (AE.v -15%
down 11.8%) and Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to down
11.5%).
Consifering the mayhem unleashed by the Trump admin on the market for copper-the-metal last week, the
casual observer might wonder why the share prices of most copper-exposed stocks didn’t drop further than
they did. This near-term chart of the September 2025 Comex contract includes a one-day move you’ll rarely
see for any fungible metal contract, let alone for what is argubably the most important non-ferrous metal in
the financial world and one that normally sets the tone for all industrial metals. They don’t call it Dr Copper
for nothing, after all.
That precipitous drop was all to do with the Trump admin’s decision to roll back it’s grand plan to levy 25%,
then 50% on imports of copper to The USA, one that was originally supposed to apply to all types of imports
including concentrate and cathode. As pointed out in previous editions, the plan was nothing short of stupid
because the bottleneck for US domestic copper supply isn’t at the mine gate, instead it’s a lack of smelting
capacity and putting a tariff on imports wouldn’t change that in the slightest. We’ve also noted on a couple of
occasions (eg IKN843) that no metals company in its right mind is going to invest the $3Bn or so required for
a new smelter just because of some tariff that could be rolled back in an instant and hey….here we are.
We’re left with a watered down tariff on copper, as Andy Home of Reuters notes in his weekly column (9):
Copper market pays the price for forgetting its TACO hedge
The copper market has the tariffs right, but the products are wrong.
The traders did not expect U.S. president Donald Trump to make a proclamation that "will address the effects of
imports of copper on America's National Security".
Imports of semi-manufactured copper products, such as wires and tubes, will face a 50% tariff starting Friday. The
tariffs will not apply to refined copper until at least January 2027.
The tariff trade that has dominated the copper market in February has collapsed. CME's U.S. Contract plummeted
more than 20% after the news. This wiped out the high premium that was previously over the London Metal
Exchange price.
After traders sent huge tonnages of metal through the wide arbitrage gap, the United States now has a surplus of
metal that it does not need.
The copper market has forgotten Trump's tendency of reversing his most extreme threats. To borrow a popular
investor meme, it has been TACOed, which is short for Trump Always Chills Out.
In fact, Mr. Home, the word is “Chickens”, not “Chills”. Presumably some sort of fight with a Reuters sub-ed.
What’s left of the tariff is now practically inconsequential for our purposes. It may promote some job creation
in The USA as companies tool up and start making more pipe and wire domestically instead of importing
18
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua
source: IKN calcs

copper finished products, but that’s about it. This 2025 YTD chart of the near-dated Comex contract shows
the systemic shocks from Trump declarations on copper and when the threat went up to a 50% tariff in June,
the arbitrage between Comex and KLME (and SHFE)
reached as high as 30%. Last week that fell off a cliff
and for a day or so, Comex ran a negative arb as
traders with burned fingers unwound their positions.
Or if you prefer, the arbitrage between Comex and
LME moved from U$2,700/t to $30/t in the space of
about a minute…hilarity ensued. This weekend there’s
still a slight arb in favour of Comex prices, perhaps
5% representing the latent risk of a another rule
change or the tariff that’s now slated to begin in 2027,
but for all intents and purposes the market in The USA
has return to the world pricing fold.
As for the reason the copper equities weren’t as
affected as you may imagine, that’s because the market generally understood that US prices (eg Comex)
were artificial and the real benchmark was still being set by LME. Therefore, when the bad news hit most
equities weren’t being priced as though they’d be able to sell their product at Comex prices, instead they
were still using LME and could shrug off the crazy metals price action. We even have a practical example in
Market Watching below today, as our tried and trusty Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) booked an average
received price of U$4.42/lb for its copper in 2q25, if it had used Comex prices that would have been around
the U$5.00/lb level.
However, there will be repercussions to work through due to this change in Trump that also leaves a surfeit
of physical copper inside The USA, country now well over-stocked for the metal in the foreseeable future. It’s
the end of the month and so the long-term copper inventory charts were due anyway, but here you can see
how in 2025 the grand total of copper in the three systems hasn’t changed much, but the locations of that
metal certain have. Comex has taken over, there’s a dearth of metal in Shanghai and we now wait to see if
that unwinds.
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
19
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj ram yam luj
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME source: Cochilco
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj ram yam luj
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
On the subject and moving swiftly on, the regular weekly section covering the moves in copper inventories os
probably a better place to consider last week’s issues and how they might resolve:
 The total of the three official copper inventories systems added 20,814 metric tonnes (mt) last
week to finish at 448,270mt.

 The quiet one of the three was the Shanghai SHFE, its stocks down just 880mt to finish at
72,543mt and while that’s another new 2025 low, we’re now seemingly in the Northern summer
lull.
 Another significant add to LME stocks last week, this time up 13,275 to close the week at 141,750mt.
With the recent increase in stocks in the last six weeks adding almost 50kmt, it’s worth remembering
that LME stocks started the year at almost double this weekend’s total.
 Finally and despite the system shock handed to the US copper market last week, Comex copper
stocks made the final push and this weekend they stand at a new modern day record of
233,977mt, up 8,419mt on the week. With the Trump tariff decision last week (see above) it will be
interesting to see what happens to Comex stocks, as the assumption now is that The USA is over-
stocked with the metal and those tonnes will need somewhere to live.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows the continuation of the recent trend, with stocks low as we enter what is
normally a high demand period for copper in the Chinese industrial belt. How will the US physical copper
volte face affect this? Time will tell but if I had to guess, we won’t see many of the tonnes in Comex and non-
official US storage make their physical way back across the Pacific. Instead, fresh shipments will revert to
their normal routes from Chile and Peru so the effects, if any, will show as from October or so. Watch this
space.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
20
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a few of our basket stocks:
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): A two-part story last week in BIG.v that saw the stock price sink from its recent
rally and provide a reality check for those looking to this stock as their speculative ticket higher.
The first part came Monday morning, when BIG announced (11) a deal with strategic partner Barrick (B)
which has a few extras to consider (please read the NR) but essentially boils down to B swapping the
concession space it has staked around the Hercules project in Idaho for an increase in its shareholding of
BIG, up to an eventual 19.9%. It was spin positively by
the company (surprise) but the market sold the shares
down on the news, the implication being that B had
decided to step back from the Hercules project and let
the junior do its thing there. The way B has swapped
land-for-shares also gives it an easy and cheap way to
take more control of the junior, leaving its options open.
So if BIG from here hits success and starts to put
together the type of massive copper porphyry resource
a company like B needs to move its dial, the Tier 1 will
have enough to keep other suitors away. But in the
meantime, its exposure to failure is minimal.
The second NR on Monday evening sunk the stock even
further, BIG announcing (12) a C$15m bought deal priced at 70c that was certainly part of the agreed deal
with Barrick. The size is relatively small, even with the agreed 15% overallotment facility and the fact we

haven’t seen an upsize to the deal (yet) suggests Barrick is dictating the terms here. The stock flat-lined for
the rest of the week and will likely continue to do so until the financing is closed.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): FDY is one of the bigger winners of the current round of financing and a
screenshot of its news page shows why:
In the space of two weeks, FDY started by wanting to raise C$30m and ended at C$49m, thanks to an
upsized book due to investor interest and a full take-up of its overallotment. The shares sold at C$1.10
apiece, there was no warrant attached and by the close (we quote), “…44,339,500 Common Shares were
sold at a price of C$1.10 per Common Share for total gross process of $48,773,450” (13). The driving reason
for the popularity was most likely the presence of the Lundin family, which has taken FDY under its wing and
as they can do no wrong in the eyes of the market at the moment, plenty of other houses jumped the
bandwagon. The Lundin Trust lead order took 9.45m shares, or around 21% of the total placement.
Element 29 (ECU.v): On the subject of placements and upsizing, there’s a lot of it about recently and
ECU.v got in on the act last week, when announcing Friday (14) that… “…in connection with its previously
announced non-brokered private placement (“Financing”) on July 17, 2025 that it has increased the size of
the Financing up to 12,800,000 units of the Company (the “Units”) at a price of $0.50 per Unit for aggregate
gross proceeds to the Company of up to $6,400,000.” So now you know. The terms are the same as before,
with the unit containing a share and a half warrant with a 70c strike and a three year shelf life.
Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse): The reason to include KBX in the 2025 Copper Basket list was a combo of
factors. As seen in the initial write-up in IKN815 dated December 29th 2024, we wanted to track progress at
its project concessions in the prospective Western Malargüe Mining District, what with the host province of
Mendoza finally turning pro-mining after decades of ambivalence toward the industry. We also wanted to
track its share price evolution, obviously for the simple price it offers a purchaser but also because it showed
some “market fun and games in July and August of 2024, something we didn’t want to leave ourselves open
to this year.
Last week brought the most significant news out of KBX this year and as far as I’m concerned, justifies its
inclusion, with the headline of the Tuesday July 29th NR “Kobrea Receives Approval to Drill and Construct
Access Road at El Perdido Western Malargue Mining District - Mendoza Province, Argentina” (15). The NR has
plenty of information and visuals, it’s worth your time, but for the gist of its contents the CEO comment does
the job for us here:
"The approval of the Environmental Impact Report for the El Perdido Project and the ability to drill is a significant
milestone for the project and for the Company as a whole," commented James Hedalen, CEO. "Kobrea is the first
public company to have drilling activities approved in the Western Malargüe Mining District and we greatly
appreciate the efforts from all of those involved with the process. We are excited to conduct the first ever drill
program on Kobrea's projects, specifically at the El Perdido porphyry target. I would like to especially thank the
Director of Mining, the Minister of Energy and Environment, the Governor of Mendoza Province, the Mayor of
Malargüe, Impulsa Mendoza, Kobrea's legal counsel, GT Ingeneria S.A. and the project vendors for their diligent
and hard work to get to this permit approved."
That’s positive news by any standards. With the Andean
winter period turning around in August, we presume KBX
will be able to cut its road and get drills on site in time for a
full program this year and while 14km of track may sound
daunting, Argentines are used to putting what they call
“ripio” roads (semi dirt track, covered with a layer of stones)
and it’s normally an efficient process there. If so, let’s slate
initial assay results for the end of this year, but aside that
milestone moment, we’re bound to get plenty of newsflow
21

on the prep and drilling procedure. As for that price action in the 2025…
…it’s been reasonable. We’d noted its fragile trading nature in the early part of the year and how it was likely
being propped at an artificial level, so when the April Trump Tariff shock came, KBX tok a dive like many
stocks but didn’t bounce back as there was no real interest. The recent bump back toward 50c is
understandable, however, particularly now that the news of permit approval and a ramp toward drilling at its
top target, El Perdido, is now underway.
Finally, a reminder of the people at KBX and while names such as company strategic advisots Darren Pylot
and Cal Everett will ring the bells of many out there, one of the reasons I care about KBX and perhaps the
single reason why I decided to include it in the 2025 Copper Basket, rather than the TinyCaps below, was the
December 2024 arrival of Paul Johnston as Chief Geologist. A top class geologist with a knowledge of the
Andean cordillera that’s second to none, Johnston is the type of CV that can choose where it works and he
chose this company, doubtless due to the prospective nature of the Mendoza Western Malargüe Mining
District, finally open to mining geology exploration and with much of the same prospective appeal as the high
zones of San Juan next door (Vicuña etc).
With C$3.3m treasury as at the end of its last reported quarter to April 30th and a low burn rate, if necessary
KBX will have enough money to do what it wants to do in the months to come without going to market again.
However, that road and then high country drilling doesn’t come cheap and they’ll need to run a financing to
fund at 2026, so don’t be surprised if they top up before then. That said, last week’s NR was the first from
the company in three months and its news was the reason why we cared about it in the first place. This is
now an interesting story to follow for the rest of 2025.
Pampa Metals (PM.cse): This time next week, Pampa Metals will not be on our list because on Thursday,
the company announced that with the merger with Rugby
now complete, it’s changing its name to Andina Metals and
so that you know, “…it is anticipated that the common
shares of the Company will commence trading under its
new name of Andina Copper Corporation on or about
August 5, 2025. The Company's trading symbol will
change to ANDC. The CUSIP and ISIN numbers will
change to 03421C108 and CA03421C1086 respectively.”
And now you know. The share price keeps ripping too.
At the start of the year, PM.cse had 83.164m shares out
and a share price of 17.5c, for a market cap of C$14.55m.
That's now 31c, 211.153m shares out and a market cap of
a cool C$70m and change. Or if you prefer, it was 15th of
our 15 on the above league table, it’s now 11th and snapping at the heels of Hot Chili in 10th (a stock that
was worth over C$100m at the start of the year).
SolGold Plc (SOLG.l): I literally haven’t been able to get to this story and feel particularly stupid, as it
ripped through several price ceilings to close up over 30%. I’m going to get to the story and we’ll expand on
what to expect from SOLG, but one thing to keep in mind and probably the reason why it moved so fast last
week, any eventual buyout offer from its Chinese strategic partner cannot come in at under the price it paid
for its recent placement. That was 11p, so if SOLG sells we know the minimum price at which it goes.
The Producer Basket
After 31 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 51.73% to level stakes:
22

company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1108 69.35 62.59 68.2%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 502.579 62.93 125.22 60.1%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1748.05 37.36 21.37 37.9%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 31.06 161.68 37.5%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 4.52 3.44 41.0%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 4.30 21.00 41.2%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 3.37 4.26 71.8%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 11.94 231.127 3.19 18.91 58.4%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 2.80 9.43 69.0%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 1.78 11.88 32.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 51.73%
The Producer Basket had a losing week, with nine of our ten component stocks registering week-over-week
losses and just Eldorado Gold (EGO) up on the week (hurrah for that). The losers didn’t stand out though,
with the biggest drops from Newmont (NEM down 4.8%) and Wesdome (WDOFF down 4.2%) and five of the
ten losing under 2%. One of those weeks when the boats rode the same tide.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
70% comparative to GDX control
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
As for our semi-serious annual fight to out-perform the GDX, we clawed back 1.11% of our deficit to the
benchmark last week and are now exactly 2.93% behind. Work to do.
Agnico Eagle (AEM): On time and in good order,
AEM filed its 2q25 financials on Wednesday evening
(16) and duly blew the lid off all forecasts and
estimates. Top line revenues at U$2.816m beat
consensus estimate by U$266m (+10.4%), and
adjusted EPS of U$1.94 beat even consensus by
33c…i.e. a mile. It even beat the high end analyst
forecast of the seven analysts polled (see last week)
of U$1.91. Whichever way you looked at AEM’s Q2, it
was a beat. As in previous quarters, this isn’t the place
for a deep dive on large cap companies such as AEM
(he says, after doing EGO today) and we limit our AEM
thoughts to these charts that have, over the last few
quarters, testified to its operational excellence. And
2q25 was not exception:
The above chart pitting the evolution of quarterly
revenues against COGS points to the secret of AEM’s
success in the last few years. The rise of the gold price
has driven revenues, but AEM has managed to drive
that cash through its P+L and to the bottom line
thanks to its impressive cost control. The 2q25
23
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
8%
ikn 6%
gdx control
4%
2%
0%
source: IKN calcs -2%
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
AEM: Revenues from mining operations vs
production costs, per qtr
7.9051
1.356
2.8171
3.347
4.2461
4.957
6.6571
5.777
8.9281
6.387
6.6702
0.277
6.5512
7.387
7.3222
9.647
2.8642
7.767
1.6182
2.987
3000
2750
2500
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250 1000
750 500
250
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m
Revs
COGS
source: company filings
AEM: Operating margin, per qtr
25.658 49.479 00.388 91.979
42.6401 46.4031 69.1731 48.6741
25.0071 19.6202
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 800
600
400
200
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
U$m
source: company filings

number of U$789.2m is somewhat higher than the most recent quarters, but we’re still in line and when
revenues grow by almost U$350m in one quarter, there’s wriggle room.
The resulting operating margin for this quarter is 72% and quite frankly, I can’t remember any operating
mining company of any size, let alone a Tier 1, running that level of mine gate margin. This chart below…
AEM: operating margin as percentage
of gross revenues, per qtr
24
%7.94 %9.75 %6.95 %0.65 %0.65 %7.35 %9.05 %1.05 %4.85 %7.45 %8.15 %7.65 %7.65 %8.35 %7.55 %2.75 %8.26 %6.36 %4.66 %9.86 %0.27
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% 30%
20%
10%
0%
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: company filings, IKN calcs
…goes back further in time than the others today because context is important. AEM used to run an
operating margin that varied around the 50% level and that was more than acceptable already, but the way
in which it has kept a tight lid on costs while watching the price of its product increase substantially is shown
most clearly in this chart. This smacks of managerial excellence, as well as being able to bring long-term
plans to fruition in good order. As for the market reaction, its was good enough and upbeat without blowing
the doors off the share price. FWIW I thought AEM deserved more than a market selling into its initial spike,
then again I’m a junior mining moneky who doesn’t pay enough attention to the Tier 1 players
New Gold (NGD): The other Q2 report of note came first thing Monday morning when 2025 high flyer New
Gold (NGD) reported its 2q25 (17) and in this case…

…I think the market got the read exactly right. To its credit the bottom line adjusted EPS of 11c was slightly
above consensus 10c, driven by record top line revenues as Rainy River coined it in from the high gold price
Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.
and New Afton became 100% NGD’s after buying out minority holder
NGD: Quarterly Earnings Overview
25
6.102 2.711 3.92 4.481 9.401 2.52 3.102 5.701 53 2.991 8.021 4.21 1.291 8.601 6.22 2.812 5.901 9.83 252 6.701 1.68 2.262 4.211 1.39
1.902
4.301
5.84
4.803
111
4.131
400
350
300
250
200
150 100
50
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
$m
revenues
op-ex
deprec/deplet
Mine Op Earnings
source: company filings
Operating earnings per share of 14.3c was also reasonable for a U$4.20 share price, showing the margin we
can expect from the company at the new gold (and
copper) price deck. However, the balance sheet was
never the strongest and now has more work to do to
absorb the cost of the New Afton minority purchase.
Working cap has moved back to negative and while
we know NGD has paid down another $111m of the
debt pile in the current quarter from treasury,
there’s still a way to go before the book value
returns to the levels of before. The price/book chart
speaks of a share price that’s moved in anticipation
of better things ahead and that’s fair enough, so we
can’t blame the market for not reacting to what is,
essentially an in-line quarter that comes with details
on a financial structure that still requires work. NGD
fully justifies its current share price on 2026 expectations, but 2025 looks fully valued now. Prove me wrong,
Mr. Godin.
NGD: Working Capital per qtr
The TinyCaps List
After 32 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 22.38% to level stakes:
4.303
3.322 3.602 1.102
6.541 9.431 8.221 7.701
2.0- 6.28 5.77
8.341 3.94-
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
4 NGD: Price/Book ratio
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
source: company data, NYSE, IKN calcs
NGD: Operating earnings per share
0.20
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06 0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2
cents
source: company financials/IKNcalcs

company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 14.23 0.105 -38.2%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 19.49 0.13 -10.3%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 5.94 0.06 -53.8%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 42.31 0.24 65.5%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 85.7 53.13 0.62 59.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 25.60 0.21 162.5%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 268.9 57.81 0.215 65.4%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 14.52 0.135 58.8%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 16.61 0.24 -56.4%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 14.55 0.10 -28.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 22.38%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with
projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down 50% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I 40%
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer
30%
reputations.
20%
To steal a line from Douglas Adams, it was mostly
10%
harmless in the TinyCaps List last week. While the average
0%
dropped back another 6% and the three winners (CN.v,
EDG.v, STS.v) were easily outnumbered by the six losers -10%
(BRO.v, ELY.v, KDK.v, LMS.v, MOG.v, RDU.v), damage
was limited as most of the price moves were small. The
biggest loser Electrum Discovery (ELY.v down 20.0%) fell
back 1.5c to its recent baseline, while the biggest winner Endurance (EDG.v up 14.3%) found its upper level
again. Apart from that, fairly quiet. There was one unchanged stock on the week in Viva Gold (VAU.v).
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): The six month chart (right) excludes the busiest month of the year, when
January saw the big move out the gate and volume to match before first drill results disappointed and the
stock went quiet. So without January’s noise, we see ELY has been quiet recently but the return of some
volume July, along with prices to 8c, show the stock isn’t dead yet.
It’s only really for small money and you’d need to have the time,
patience and mental alignment to do so, but ELY looks just about
tradable at this level, perhaps with a view to scalping a quick 30%
between here and 8c. Or perhaps you feel lucky and can squirrel them
away for a time when they drill with more success (and what could
possibly go wrong?). When checking out this stock before including it in
the 2025 list, I was told by several geologists that they rated the brains
trust of Elena Clarici and team, with the fact that she wasn’t from the
grubby world of Canadian juniors but came from the academic side of the rockbangers’ association certainly
playing in her favour (as far as I’m concerned). Said it in April and May when it was hitting those 6c lows and
I’ll say it again this weekend, ELY isn’t dead yet.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
26
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6luj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Regional politics
Updating the South American Presidential popularity list
I’ve been meaning to get back to this dataset for a while, it slipped my mind at the six-month point, so better
late than never and today’s the day. In IKN807 dated November 3rd 2024 and the Regional Politics note “Who
is the fairest of them all?”, we ran the poll-of-poll results compiled by Argentine polling company CB
Consultora Opinión Pública on the popularity of the ten major country Presidents of South America (i.e. South
of the Darien Gap, no Prime Ministers) for October 2024. Today we return to the list and see how they’ve
been getting on in the meantime, with today’s numbers as published last week for the month of July 2025
(18). Here’s the table, notes below:
South American Presidential approval ratings, by country
27
%3.74
%3.05
%1.74
%8.94
%9.74
%5.94
%2.84
%1.94
%8.15
%7.54
%1.85
%5.93
%8.65
%4.83
%8.76
%1.82
%3.87 %0.87
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% 19.5% 18.2%
0%
isrO avliS
ad
ieliM aoboN ciroB orteP añeP orudaM ecrA etrauloB
positive negative ns/nr
source: CB Consultora
 We’ve only seen one Head of State change in the nine months’ lapse, as Yamandú Orsi has taken over
from Luis Lacalle Pou.
 Arguably, there are four regional Presidents with acceptable ratings, with Orsi, Brazil’s Lula da Silva,
Argentina’s Javier Milei and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa all scoring 50%-or-abouts and with net positive
approval.
 Then comes Gabriel Boric of Chile, who has made the best recent progress in the eyes of his population
(see below). That’s interesting, considering we have a key election in Chile at the end of this year.
 Gustavo Petro of Chile gets constant bad press in the North, but even though he runs a negative net
popularity he’s seen his 40%-or-abouts level hold steady.
 Luis Arce of Bolivia and Santiago Peña of Paraguay are the two biggest losers of the period, both
slipping in the polls. Of the two, Arce’s approval drop is the most dramatic and with Bolivia about to
vote its next President, provides another pulse check of the volatile nature of Bolivia this year.
 We know Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela is unpopular, but both he and his party have hardore supporters
and his ratings have remained steady.
 Which only leaves Dina Boluarte, whose unpopularity in Peru is unprecedented and this CB Consultora
poll probably over-estimates her position in the country. Several leading pollsters current gauge her
true approval rating at between 2% and 5%.
This second chart shows the then-and-now scores of our ten heads of state, a couple more notes below:
South American Presidents' Approval Ratings, Oct 2024 and July 2025
%0.25 %3.05 %4.94 %8.94 %7.74 %5.94 %2.54 %1.94 %5.73 %7.54 %5.93 %5.93 %0.64 %4.83
%1.92 %1.82
%3.14
%5.91 %6.32 %2.81
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30% 25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
isrO/uoPL avliS
ad
ieliM aoboN ciroB orteP añeP orudaM ecrA etrauloB
oct'24
jul'25
source: CB Consultora

 If there’s one thing to take away it’s the inertia, with the top three still the top three and six of the ten
scoring within two percentage points compared to October 2024. That’s not a bad thing.
 The best performance over the period is clearly Gabriel Boric of Chile, with Daniel Noboa of Ecuador in
second spot. Boric’s late-term re-surge is good news for his dauphine, Jeannette Jara, who is now set
to make the second round run-off as the Chilean left wing consensus candidate.
 Last week, we noted a wobble in the latest numbers for Javier Milei of Argentina in the well-regarded
ESPOP poll, that may not yet be reflected in today’s chart above and the poll-of-polls method used by
CB Consultora. Milei’s rating is arguably the most important of all ten, with the October 26th midterms
in Argentina (also the Buenos Aires Province elections next month) now looming large.
 The worst performance over the period is clearly Luis Arce of Bolivia, though Santiago Peña of
Paraguay has nothing to feel proud about.
 Dina Boluarte’s period of office comes to an end next year, with Peru’s presidential election first round
slated for April 2026. Her fellow citizens will be glad to see the back of her.
I’ll make a point of an update in early 2026, once we have the Bolivia and Chile presidential elections and the
Argentina mid-term votes behind us.
Bolivia: Evo tells his supporters to spoils their ballots
With just two weekends in front of us before the vote, the Bolivian election campaign is hitting its climatic
moment (for the first round vote at least); we had a live TV debate this weekend between the eight
candidates running for President, Samuel Doria Medina and Tuto Quiroga are still heading the few opinion
polls that have been taken and the left wing’s only real hope, Senate head Andrónico Rodriguez, is seeing his
chances stymied by Evo Morales’ decision to protest his exclusion from the election (though Rodriguez may
be polling better than many assume, the pollsters are also biased toward the right wing in Bolivia). In the
debate, the most notable dynamic was the way the right wing candidates (six of the eight) ganged up against
Rodríguez and took turns in blaming him and his government for the current economic mess, the protests
currently causing havoc in the country, the lack of dollar liquidity that’s been hitting the Bolivian currency
hard, the social upheaval, the Evo Morales mess and all other matters, making him out to be personally
responsible for everything bad that’s happened to the country in the last 20 years. Clearly, the right wingers
see only one serious threat to their chances of getting back into power now and while they are ostensibly
opposed to one another in the next two weeks, you can be sure that the main players will get high ranking
jobs under whoever wins the presidency assuming it’s not Rodríguez. Meanwhile this week, Evo took to the
airwaves to tell his supporters to refrain from voting in the August 17th election by way of protest (as well as
saying some really weird things out loud, such as confiding to reporters that his inner circle often tell him he
must have been “sent by God” and though he doesn’t believe them, sometimes the thought crosses his mind
as well). We’re on a collision course for chaos in Bolivia this month, above all in the provincial regions where
Evo has his strongholds.
We’re going to run a pre-election note on the vote next weekend in IKN847, there’s also a trade set-up
potentially emerging that keeps risk of being trapped in a volatile country to a minimum and may offer some
near-term gains. Still thinking that one through, more next weekend once the final voter intention polls are in
and we can take the temperature of the Evo-led protest groups more accurately.
My nagging doubts about Milei in the upcoming Argentina elections
There are three things I know about the current political situation of President Javier Milei of Argentina:
 He can do no wrong in the North (or as Argentines say, in “the serious countries”) and is feted as a
hero. He’s assumed to be popular and a shoo-in to complete his reform package to drag Argentina,
kicking and screaming, into the market-driven world of the mid-21st century.
 His popularity isn’t as strong as most people on the outside looking in think. Also, Argentina isn’t
changing anyway close to as quickly as the boosters and supporters writing script on him in the
English language would have you believe. He’s still polling okay, roughly the same level as Mauricio
Macri was in the teens when President at this stage of his admin, but it’s not some runaway
number and we’ve seen a slow deterioration in his numbers in 2025.
28

 The upcoming elections in Argentina, chiefly the October 26th Senate and provincial elections but
also the separate elections on September 5th for provincial parliament of Buenos Aires Province,
will be acid tests for Milei’s manifesto and a quasi-referendum on his government to date.
I spend an hour or so chatting with an Argentine contact/friend last week, who
isn’t a professional pundit but is switched on about politics and has a balanced
view I respect. He pointed me toward a poll taken by (left-leaning) pollster Zuban
Cordoba in July (19) and specifically to this Q&A that was in the secondary level
information (right). The question (translated) is: “What will be the main objective
of your vote in the upcoming Legislative Elections in October”?
The answers were split by the pollster into two groups, with the people who
voted for Javier Milei in the December 2023 run-off for President in the left group
and those who voted for Sergio Massa in the right group. The concerning data
point is in the left-hand group, as 16.6% of those who voted for Javier Milei to be
President now say they’re going to use their vote in October to “punish the
current (national) government for its performance to date”. As Milei beat Sergio
Massa to the Presidency by a margin of 56% to 44% in thr 2023 run-off, what
that says is there are plenty Argentines annoyed by the way Milei’s government
hasn’t delivered on its promises to date to move away from him and vote in
opposition, enough of the voting public to tip the balance away from him. And
that’s a little concerning.
Our first big clue will come from the Buenos Aires Provincial parliament election
next month, which is setting up as an appetizer plate for the October mid-terms
(the vote traditionally used as a referendum on the sitting government’s
performance in Argentina). We’ll be watching both carefully, as the results will set
the tone for the next two, or even six, years of government in the country. Plenty
in play, particularly when we consider the blithe assumptions up North that Milei
is popular and a shoo-in for greater things.
Market Watching
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 2q25 financials DEFERRED
This is where I was going to run through the Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 2q25 financial results, but as
there’s nothing time sensitive I’m going to defer them until next week
A final note on star turn NGEx Minerals (NGEX.to)
Four Market Watching notes should be enough, today is the last time. Since its absolutely stonking drill assay
reported in May, we’ve run several Market Watching notes on the Lundin’s latest hot ticker NGEx Minerals
(NGEX.to), mostly because that assay and what it implied in the presence of a large and well-endowed
porphyry resource on site turned my previous skepticism and neutrality around. As from IKN836 I’ve been a
fan and have said as much, but the absolute size of NGEX as a corporate entity means I’m not going to add it
to coverage here at The IKN Weekly. By way of a reminder, here’s the end of the The Market Watching note
in IKN836 dated May 25th entitled “NGEx Minerals (NGEX.to) cuts an impressive hole”, rgive me for running
an extended excerpt but the context is required:
The bottom line: This isn’t a trade for me, it’s market cap is too big for my personal comfort or for the
normal scope of The IKN Weekly and I say that while being clear-eyed about missing all the fun at Filo
with the same mealy-minded attitude, watching it climb and climb and then get taken out by BHP/Lundin.
The same fate may well be in store for NGEX (or its potential Lunahuasi spinco, it tends to do these
things) and as such, you may want to reserve the right to call me a darnfool further down the line for not
buying NGEX on the back of this game-changer drill result, the one that turned me from a sceptic to a
believer in its potential. However, I will say that last week’s price move from the mid-12s to a close of 15,
one that added over half a billion dollars to its market cap, was fully justified on what we currently know.
I wish NGEX the best of fortune up there and if readers and subscribers of The IKN Weekly decide to buy
29

into NGEX you won’t hear a single word of dissent from this desk going forward. Every so often, a drill
hole comes along which is remembered for decades after. Arequipa Resources at Pierina had one,
Diamond Fields at Voisey’s Bay had one and Aurelian Resources at Fruta del Norte had one. The jury is
still out, but hole DPDH027 for NGEX at Lunahuasi may turn out to be the same level of importance.
Then came another Market Watching note in IKN842 dated July 6th entitled “NGEx Minerals (NGEX.to) stalls”,
which wondered why the stock had hit a price wall and pointed your eyes to its opportunity again. Some final
words from that note:
However and as mentioned in IKN836, its market cap truly is too big for The IKN Weekly and falls outside
my preferred spot, especially for explorecos and developers, so it’s a stock I’ll leave for others but with
that said, those of you looking for a larger bandwidth way of playing the expected run on copper may
want to consider NGEX.to, there’s a lot to like now Lunahuasi clearly stands on its own and has more to
offer from its recent porphyry discovery.
Finally, we ran another note in Market Watching note the very next week, IKN843 dated July 13th entitled
“NGEx Minerals (NGEX.to) wakes up”: Here are some final words from that segment:
Conceptually, I look on what’s happening there in the same way the 49ers must have approached the
California gold rush some 175 years ago, with so much grade and width undiscovered to this point in an
obviously highly prospective corner of the world that’s never been explored before.
The point, that we expected NGEX to run, was made on
three occasions in three different editions, so the price
action we saw last week as NGEX.to went through the C$20
line to close the week at C$20.05 (+33.7% since IKN836)
shouldn’t have come as a surprise. Today’s brief note is
more a hat-tip to its improved performance over the last
three weeks than anything else and a way to wrap up this
soft coverage. Great stock, great company, one surely worth
considering if it fits your portfolio criteria, but this is as far
as we go here at The IKN Weekly.
Wishing NGEX and all who sail in her the best of fortune, the
size and scale of copper project that puts our industry in the
map with the serious money people.
Conclusion
IKN846 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Three trades planned and that’s a lot for me. The two sales are both profitable, but there’s no doubt
which of the two has performed better. As for West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v), the moment to position
is now in the summer lull (if that still exists) as this is a story that’s going to get a lot of coverage as
the mine ramps into commercial production as Q3 becomes Q4 and then 2026.
 Copper had a tumultuous week but overall and with exceptions, the stocks weren’t badly hit and
retain their attraction.
 The next decision on deck is whether to buy i-80 now that it’s come back to a decent entry point. I’ll
be thinking about that between now and next weekend. I need to get up to date on SolGold, too.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos
(MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-price-increases-accelerated-in-june-amid-tariff-uncertainty-
124028246.html
(2) https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
30

(3) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/comments-on-july-employment-report.html
(4) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-substantially-increases-total-diablillos-mineral-resources-to-199-million-ounces-
contained-silver-and-1-7-million-ounces-contained-gold-350-moz-ageq-in-mi
(5) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-further-expands-high-grade-silver-mineralization-beyond-jac-boundary-at-
diablillos-including-650-metres-grading-162-gt-ag
(6) https://www.abrasilver.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=080306
(7) https://www.eldoradogold.com/investors/news-releases/eldorado-gold-reports-strong-q2-2025-financial-and-operational-results
(8) https://www.amerigoresources.com/investors/share-buybacks/
(9) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-market-pays-price-forgetting-its-taco-hedge-2025-07-31/
(10) https://www.herculesmetals.com/news-release/?qmodStoryID=8787666527576580
(12) https://www.herculesmetals.com/news-release/?qmodStoryID=8936810473901398
(13) https://faradaycopper.com/news-releases/faraday-copper-announces-closing-of-c-49-million-financing/
(14) https://www.e29copper.com/news/element-29-announces-upsized-private-placement-of-up-to-6400000
(15) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/260443/Kobrea-Receives-Approval-to-Drill-and-Construct-Access-Road-at-El-Perdido-
Western-Malargue-Mining-District-Mendoza-Province-Argentina
(16) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/agnico-eagle-reports-second-quarter-210000576.html
(17) https://newgold.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/NEW-GOLD-REPORTS-SECOND-QUARTER-2025-
RESULTS/default.aspx
(18) https://cbconsultoraop.com/julio-2025-ranking-presidentes-de-sudamerica/
(19) https://www.diario-red.com/articulo/argentina/batalla-cultural-encuestas/20250730120000051830.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
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Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
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Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
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Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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