6 The IKN Weekly, issue 840 — Jun 24, 2025
The IKN Weekly
Week 840, June 22nd 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, War what is it good for?
Stocks to Follow: Latin Metals (LMS.v), AbraSilver (ABRA.to), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), i-80 Gold Corp
(IAUX) (IAU.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Gold Royalty (GROY), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Marimaca Copper
(MARI.to), Eldorado Gold (EGO).
The Copper Basket: Overview, American Eagle (AE.v), Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), Hercules Metals
(BIG.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to), Barrick Mining (B) (ABX.to),
Newmont (NEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Electrum Discovery (ELY.v), Kodiak Copper (KDK.v).
Regional Politics: Mexico: Sheinbaum addresses the mining question, Colombia: The “temporary” nature
reserves multiply Argentina: Unions flexing, Ecuador: One good and one bad, Bolivia: Evo ups the social
unrest ante.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
Not only is today’s edition one day late, it’s also very light on content. I had planned to include the
piece that’s fully noted and ready to write on Eldorado Gold (EGO), as well as an extended look at the
progress made by Surge Copper (SURG.v) recently, also a extra intro note and extras in Market
Watching. All that as well as longer pieces in the standard sections. None of those are in the edition.
It’s now midnight and 38 minutes as Monday turns into Tuesday locally and even this apologetic and
rather pathetic sounding intro today has taken an age to write. It’s time to come clean and admit I’ve
been going through what can only be described as writer’s block. It’s been going on for a few weeks
and I’ve tried to make excuses about it in recent editions, but this time it’s become way too much.
Instead of doing what I always do at the weekend, the normal routine of writing, I’ve found myself
staring at the screen, unable to concentrate and so easily distracted I’ve got nothing done. It feels
bad, a mental burnout. I have no excuses, either. It’s not as if other parts of my life are bad. The
portfolio is going well, my private home life could not be better and with the latest addition to the
family now at 15 months, both myself and the good lady are both getting reasonable amounts of sleep
at night now. The 3yo regularly brings home coughs and sniffles from kindergarten which he happily
passes on to us, but my last bout was 10 days ago and I cannot even complain about health. Also, as
anyone of you that follow my TwitterX account will know, I’ve been active enough online recently. That
may be part of the problem (of course), but I have not found it so difficult to respond to current events
using TwitterX and its short character count. The issue is here, the blank page of the Weekly and it’s
enormously frustrating and embarrassing. There’s nothing wrong, aside from the simple fact that I
spent three days staring at the computer screen instead of using it. If it were a one-off it might not be
as concerning, but as stated above this writers’ block (which some people say does not exist) has been
growing for the past few weeks. I don’t know what to do, I felt like canceling this edition entirely but
this news this morning from Mexico was enough to get me to add at least something of use to the
readership. However, this edition is far from the standard required, it’s little more than the “bare
bones” editions we publish over the Christmas holiday period and what’s more it’s coming to you a day
late (day and a half, to be frank). I don’t know what to do.
1
Anyway, there is some content in this edition. The notes in the Copper Basket underscore my rising
bullish outlook toward the key industrial metal and the commentary on President Sheinbaum of
Mexico’s comments on mining today are valid. But that’s about all.
If you’re annoyed at the bad quality of today’s edition, as well as the substandard editions in recent
weeks (late arrivals, light in content), I do not blame you in the slightest. I am not offering excuses in
this intro, I am trying to explain why it’s a poor edition as well as offering my apologies. I’m somewhat
lost, as there’s no real explanation I can offer that makes sense. Please consider this edition a “bare
bones” placeholder, I will attempt to get my head together for IKN841 next weekend.
War what is it good for?
The Raytheon share price, Mr. Starr.
Or to be exact, “RTZ Corp” as it’s now known. The escalation of the Middle East conflict is set to be top of the
agenda this coming week and you’re not going to get much in the way of cutting edge and insightful
geopolitical knowledge on that from the pages of a publication focused on (mostly) junior mining companies
and (mostly) Latin America, even if I had an opinion that were reasonable it would be borrowed. However,
we need to tip our hat to the most likely macro influence on the markets this week and as the USD will be at
the centre of all trade thoughts, be they currencies, bonds or equities, we’re going to feel the knock-on
effects in the metals market and therefore mining companies. Therefore, this week’s smorsgasbord of market
moving events starts with anything on the war front (and there are plenty of fronts from which to choose) of
course and war being war, precise predictions are tough but there is one general statement worth making.
Over the years, the US Dollar (USD, DXY etc) has tended to rally at the moments when its country flexes its
military muscles. For sure this time may be different and the obvious counterpoint is how recent times have
seen gold return the (or at least “a”) go-to safe haven reserve, with US bonds somewhat out of fashion.
There’s more on that in our second intro note today (below), but to tie off the USD thoughts here and
assuming the market acts in the way the market tends to act when The USA gets bellicose, we should be
ready for a rally in the USD as from tomorrow and therefore, downside pressure on gold, copper and all their
bedfellows. So as well as RTZ, Mr Edwin Starr, war is also good for the currency of the world’s most powerful
nation. Meanwhile in scheduled events, Tuesday and Wednesday sees Mr. Powell Goes To Washington for the
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, the two day grilling of the Fed chair by the U.S. House
Financial Services Committee, a body that occasionally includes someone who understands financials
(Ron/Rand Paul notwithstanding). Whether or not we’ll get any market moving moments from the Fed head
as he answers the same questions 25 times is up for debate, but we are surely going to get Trump faithful
pressing him on their boss’s desire for a full point cut from the base rate.
Stocks to Follow
Could have been worse. Your author remains firmly in “glass half full” mentality regarding the Stocks to
Follow list, so despite an overall negative week from a headcount of nine losers (MAI.v, RIO.v, EGO, ARG.to,
2
OCI.v, PGDC.v, PAU.cse, MENE.v) beating out seven winners (MARI.to, ABRA.to, GROY, SRL.v, LMS.v,
SURG.v, IAUX) with just one unchanged unchanged stock (MIRL.cse), including the top four holding all down,
I can’t help but think we did okay compared to a market that threw bombs at certain stocks. Just one stock
dropped by a double figure percentage, that was the Watch List member Provenance Gold (PAU.cse down
17.4%) while in the plus column, Surge Copper (SURG.v up 10.8%) was the biggest percentage winner.
There are currently 17 names on our Stocks to Follow list, three under the self-imposed maximum and 14 of
those carry at least some of my personal money. Fourteen are in the green, three are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.385 83.3% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$1.27 58.8% Fenix build and re-rate on
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$20.83 30.8% Added Feb'25, now going well
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.84 19.5% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.70 86.9% Quality Cu dev, FS due
AbraSilver ABRA.to STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$4.58 67.8% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$2.30 64.3% Going to U$3+, still cheap
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.145 81.3% Ecuador buyout trade
Latin Metals LMS.v BUY C$0.185 10-Jun-25 C$0.20 8.1% proj.generator, Organullo spec
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.095 -13.6% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v spec buy $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.155 47.6% bulk copper in good address
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.07 16.7% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
i-80 Gold IAUX WATCH U$0.50825 18-May-25 U$0.6939 36.5% Looking for entry point
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.055 175.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.195 129.4% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.14 -68.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
Lumina Gold LUM.v Jun'25 C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% successful buyout trade.
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Latin Metals (LMS.v): We’ve done a lot on the opportunity
afforded by LMS in light of the Organullo drill permit award, so no
long treatise today, just some thoughts on the way the stock
traded. As noted last weekend I’m long and want some more, the
idea idea being to add at under 20c so, with that price the bare
minimum seen last week (and then only briefly) I didn’t manage to
add any. But that’s okay, as the two-day chart shows how volume
3
dropped in last couple of days of trading and that was required to get the stock off the centre of the momo
traders’ radars. I’ll fish for my price in the days to come.
AbraSilver (ABRA.to): Another new ATH last week and while the Friday close was around 8% lower than
the intraday highs reached on Tuesday and Wednesday (I saw C$4.96 on the tape), the C$4.58 finish is still
another weekly close high as ABEA continues to head in the right direction. Couldn’t be more pleased with
the way this trade is going and these days, used to the near-term volatility. The C$5.74 target seemed a long
way away when setting it in IKN820 dated February 2nd, what with that weekend’s price at C$2.93. It
doesn’t look so far away now.
(Monday update: Another decent day, $4.73 close)
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): The news last week that RPX was raising treasury via an equity placement
didn’t come as a big surprise, we’d anticipated something of this ilk for a while and a couple of weeks ago, a
rumour floated across the desk that it would be around the $6m size. So…
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - June 19, 2025) - Red Pine Exploration Inc. (TSXV: RPX) (OTCQB: RDEXF)
("Red Pine" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Research
Capital Corporation as the sole bookrunner and co-lead agent, and together with Haywood Securities Inc., as co-
lead agents (the "Agents") in connection with a brokered, best-efforts Listed Issuer Financing Exemption private
placement offering (the "Offering") of securities of the Company (the "Offered Securities") for aggregate gross
proceeds to the Company of up to $7,000,000 in a combination of:
a) a minimum of $1,500,000 and up to $5,500,000 in gross proceeds of non-flow-through units of the Company
(the "NFT Units") at a price of $0.10 ("NFT Unit Issue Price") per NFT Unit. Each NFT Unit will consist of one
common share of the Company (a "Common Share") and one-half of one Common Share purchase warrant (each
whole warrant, a "Warrant"); and
b) up to a maximum of $2,500,000 in gross proceeds of flow-through units of the Company (the "FT Units") at a
price of $0.12 per FT Unit. Each FT Unit will consist of one Common Share that will qualify as "flow-through share"
within the meaning of subsection 66(15) of the Income Tax Act (Canada) (the "Tax Act") and one-half of one
Warrant.
Each Warrant shall entitle the holder thereof to purchase one Common Share at an exercise price of $0.15 for a
period of 36 months following the closing of the Offering.
…the C$7m size as announced (1) was in the ballpark. However, I as a shareholder was disappointed with
the pricing at 10c for the hard dollar units that included a half warrant, that felt cheap to me. The
placement’s hard dollar portion also has a 15% overallotment facility available to the brokers and as ths price
is right for newcomers, I’d expect that to fully fill and the company should raise C$8.825m in gross proceeds.
That size of purse will keep them fully funded for exploration well into 2026, no matter how hard they go
with the drillbit. However, they’d need to raise more to build the proposed stage one open pit, a subject for
another day.
(Monday update: At this price, the news today Monday (2) that the placement has been upsized to $8.5m,
with some Flow Thru shares now being sold as Charity Flow Thru shares, plus the other $0.5m added as CFT,
all priced at 14c. As such I now expect RPX to use its full overallotment and sell m shares for gross proceeds
of C$9.325m. Also, I heard from one regular contact that they’d tried to get some of the placement on
Monday and had been knocked back so, we can only presume the book is already full).
i-80 Gold Corp (IAUX) (IAU.to): I have two silver linings to glean from my IAU cloud. The first is that I
managed to identify the stock at the right time and price (see IKN835 dated May 18th and the main
Fundamental Analysis note that weekend, “Why i-80 Gold Corp (IAU.to) (IAUX) is now worth a gamble. The
second is how it seems to have stopped its rocket run at the 90c-and-bits level, so the market has probably
recognized the warrant overhang as the headwind it is. Aside those rather academic thoughts, the arrival of
IAU on these pages is nothing less than a sorry tale of missed opportunity. Up again from last weekend when
the darned thing got me quoting Shakespeare, we’ll continue to monitor it for a few more weeks in case
weakness shows up but if not, I’ll have no choice but to cull it from the Watch List.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): In the “Signs of life” notes on MAI last week we spent time to convey company
President Ramshaw’s information on the short position currently on MAI stock, how its set to grow from now
uhntil mid-August and how it will then disappear, all part of a third-party deal that happened on stock from
the late 2024 placement. That’s all a bit of a papertrail, but the upshot is what matters and that’s how we
have a window to accumulate at prices that are unlikely to move up sharply (the short is covered, no point in
4
squeezing) until the position comes off. That’s basically what we saw last week and the range looks set for
“high 30s”, normal variance notwithstanding.
Gold Royalty (GROY): Up a penny on the week, which was slightly surprising as GROY spent every hour
bar the last hour of Friday trading under last weekend’s price but managed to rally into the bell. If I wwre
Fred Bell of Elemental Altius, I’d instantly understand that a “merger of equals” that separated the GROY
assets from its mediocre managerial crew would be an instant value add.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): With main holdings AE and ARIC both down on the week, the OCI liquid-ish assets
value dropped to 6.1c/share and with that the only driver, it’s not a shock to see it lose half a penny on the
week in low intensity trading.
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.50 5.89 2.4
ARIC.v 7.39 0.54 3.99 1.6
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.34 1.42 0.6
XXIX.v 22.992 0.105 2.41 1.0
KTR.v 42.750 0.015 0.64 0.3
MERG.v 5.125 0.02 0.10 0.0
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 15.20 6.1
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 15.23 6.1c
At 247.714 S/O
The fun happens here when OCI and Gold Candle announce some type of deal for McGarry and as that’s set
to be a binary event, we’ll likely see the stock fiddle round this current range right up to the moment it
doesn’t.
In Kintavar takeover news, we understand after a conversation with Ore Group’s Stephen Stewart this
weekend that the process continues. The delay in the transaction is due to a wait for assay results required
for QA/QC work, without which the company cannot file the 43-101 report required by the market authorities
on the Roger project. Without the assays, the 43-101 couldn’t be filed and without the 43-101, the market
people couldn’t greenlight the deal. As last week the assay results finally arrived from the labs, the 43-101 is
now filed. The next step is OCI/XXIX/KTR awaiting comments from the exchange authorities (queries are the
norm, not the exception) and after that, they’ll be able to seal the deal. However, with the 43-101 now in
KTR can call its AGM and do the necessary voting (as well as field questions). It’s a slow process for sure, but
they’ll get there and once KTR comes out of its trading halt, we can expect its 1.5c share price to revalue.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): The last time we had written guidance from MARI on the timing of its
upcoming feasibility study DFS for the main Marimaca project was in its May corporate presentation, which
confirmed this key project milestone was on course for publication in 2q25. In other words, if MARI is going
to be true to its word we should expect news on the DFS this coming week, or Monday June 30th at the
latest. As we’ve laid out on several previous occasions, this DFS is the missing document that will allow MARI
to go out and market its project to the highest bidder. For sure it’s going to represent moving it forward into
production itself, but the world and his spouse know that the most obvious obvious exit strategy is a sale and
in this case most likely the whole company, lock stock and satellite targets barrel, and you can bet they’ll be
opening up the dataroom to potential buyers and entering shopping rounds with interested parties.
As for the price on any deal, this desk has stuck with its C$7 target for almost all this process from the
original purchases and house C$3.05 cost average. However, it’s worth taking in the words of subscriber
“MT” (good initials, sir), a market professional who wrote in a few days ago on the subject. Here are a few of
his words:
While I agree with the spirit of your message about Marimaca, I think in selling at C$7, someone
would be materially short-changing themselves. I’ve bet the stock is headed for a double digit share
price.
I agree with the numerical logic behind that statement, so three things to say:
5
1) One of the advantages of having a price target is leaving it pat until it’s hit. We’re looking to see
MARI through C$6 soon and at some point I may have to address the target if its closes in on the 7-
handle, but for the time being it’s good enough.
2) As the most likely exit is a buyout, an agreed offer would almost certainly be higher than the C$7 line
so if it comes before the house target is hit, we can run the adjustments on the day.
3) Sadly, aiming too high can set you up for a fall in this junior buyout game. Once again, totally agree
about the project value as stands and if MARI could 1) raise the capital 2) build the mine and 3)
bring it into production successfully without selling to a third party, it’s going to be worth a lot more
than the prices on offer or my happy target. However and as ever, buyers want their bargains and
the eventual ticket price on any MARI buyout could disappoint we retail grunts on the outside.
As such I still prefer to keep things to the conservative side for the time being. With the DFS at hand we’ll
know more and that should be in the next few days.
(Monday update: Volume wasn’t great, but there were enough buyers (and a lack of sellers) to push MARI
into the 6-handle for the first time ever.)
Eldorado Gold (EGO): With GDX down 4.0% and GDXJ down 5.7%, EGO held on to its price fairly well last
week (for a change) and we’ll put its performance into the “less worse” bucket. The next real catalyst is most
probably the 2q25 production and financial results, with any news on the Skouries build-out as important as
any gold or dollar numbers they give.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-five weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 3.64% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 279.21 564.00 2.02 41.3%
2 SolGold (GBP) SOLG.l 6.92 3001.11 212.48 7.08 2.3%
3 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 171.15 344.01 2.01 36.7%
4 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 164.1 311.79 1.90 15.2%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 297.35 1.75 -7.9%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 282.98 2.27 10.7%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.516 160.30 0.78 5.4%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 261.543 143.85 0.55 0.0%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 173.377 86.69 0.50 -27.5%
10 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 74.20 0.49 -26.9%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 124.195 60.86 0.49 -22.2%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 27.09 0.105 -4.5%
13 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 172.61 25.89 0.15 -6.3%
14 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 74.78 15.70 0.21 -33.3%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 13.16 0.375 -37.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ except SolGold in GBP Portfolio avg -3.64%
After one blessed week with its head above water, the Copper Basket went back to the bad times with a
near-5% loss taken by the basket average and a
return to the red ink. Just four or out 15 stocks The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
10.0%
were week-over-week winners (SOLG.l, TMQ.to, 8.0%
KBX.cse, CGNT.v) and of those, Trilogy (TMQ.to 6.0%
4.0%
up 12.4%) took the laurels. The other eleven were 2.0%
0.0%
losers so I’m not listing all the tickers, instead we’ll
-2.0%
list the Hall of Shame of Hercules Metals (BIG.v -4.0%
-6.0%
down 17.9%), Pampa Metals (PM.cse down -8.0%
14.3%), American Eagle (AE.v down 12.3% and -10.0%
-12.0%
6
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs
Element 29 (ECU.v down 10.9%). We could throw Aldebaran (ALDE.v down 8.9%) in there, too.
Please note that due to its listing being withdrawn from the TSX, SOLG is now covered via its London listing
and its prices are now marked in British Pounds (GBP). For the record, the £212.48m market cap as seen
above translates to C$393.6m which is why SOLG is still #2 on our market cap league table.
As for copper-the-metal, copper went from higher to lower the week but nothing drastic or fatal. It was more
related to the same price action prevalent through most of Q2. However and on balance, copper did well
during a week in which the winds of war blew strongly. Industrial metals are normally the first to feel the
negative effects of war fear so “down but not out” and well inside recent trading ranges was a reasonable
result.
Late week the copper market got a boost when word came from the LME that stocks had dropped to low
enough levels for its governing body to “do something”. Here’s Reuters (3):
The London Metal Exchange has imposed new restrictions on holders of large positions in nearby
contracts amid low inventory levels, it said on Friday.
LME took action after premiums for nearby copper contracts jumped to their highest levels since
October 2022.
The sequence of events is:
The world knows physical copper is moving from Asia to The USA, Trump Tariffs and arbitrage
opportunity and all that (see last week).
Due to that, there’s a stiff premium being paid for the cash delivery copper contract, some
U$350/tonne higher than the three month contract.
And due to that, copper inventories are dropping fast. What’s more,m cancelled warrants indicate
the draw down will continue.
And due to that, traders with large positions in a quickly shrinking pool are being handed
considerable power to move the market as they prefer.
And due to that, the LME authorities took action in order to ensure an orderly market. Or in the
words of the Reuters report:
“At times the LME’s special committee has directed market participants to take a number of actions to reduce large on-
exchange positions relative to prevailing stock levels,” the LME said in a statement.
“Given the ongoing low stock environment, the special committee now feels it appropriate to introduce … transparent
and generally applicable set of requirements.”
The action was taken to head off the development of a potential “corner” on the market or an “undesirable situation”,
it added.
The new rule expands the LME’s existing restrictions on so-called “tom-next” positions that are closer to delivery, it
added.
The restriction requires holders of long positions which are greater than the total stocks levels to lend back to the
market at a zero premium.
7
This won’t stop the physical copper from leaving LKME warehouses, but it will provide liquidity for the
marketplace and make it far more difficult for any single trader to corner the market.
Now for our regular weekly section covering the moves in copper inventories:
World copper inventories took another significant leg down last week, the aggregate holdings of
the three official futures systems dropping by 9,833 metric tonnes (mt), the Friday total at
382,537mt.
Shanghai’s SHFE copper stocks dropped a modest 1,129mt to close at 100,814mt, once again at
the 100k-or-abouts line that seems to be the equilibrium point for the Northern summer season.
We saw another big change at the LME, as stocks dropped a very chunky 15,275mt under the
circumstances to close at 99,200mt, under the magic line for the first time in a long time. It’s what
we were expecting at some point in 2025, but not as quickly as this.
Meanwhile at the Comex, we saw another small add to copper stocks with the close at 182,523mt.
With the draw downs in the two main systems and the influx of copper trying to profit from Trump
Tariffs, the Comex is suddenly the dominant copper holder and we’ll have to see if that starts
affecting contract prices in the other two systems. If it does, we’d expect prices to be drwn higher
at the LME and for the arbitrage to begin to close.
Our dedicated SHFE tracking chart shows the ninth week of “100k or abouts” is in the books and if you ask
me, we’ve got another nine or so to go. Backing up that hypothesis, this week’s SMH market report on SHFE
market action (4) noted this for copper: “It is expected that spot premiums will be quoted high but sold low
in the future, and market supply will remain relatively abundant”. However, reading that is akin to hearing
directly from the Chinese potiburo and it’s exactly what the people behind the report would want you to
believe. Also it’s happily timed for the narrative and being as it is low season in SHFE metals trading, it
doesn’t really mean much anyway (you may note the nebulous “in the future”, which doesn’t really mean
much). The stocks level tells us we’re in its normal summer months lull and what happens as from September
will matter more to the spot price
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
8
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for a couple of notes on some of the basket component stocks:
American Eagle (AE.v): So much for that bump last week. We
wondered in IKN839 last weekend whether there was leaky boat
news coming from AE and its 2025 drill program now underway,
but we got no news from the company and by Wednesday
afternoon, the shine had come off the attempted breakout.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): It may come across as a
nasty case of “do as I say not as I do”, because I’m on record as
saying I’d only buy back into ALDE if we saw a big drop and
move back down to (or at least towards) the C$1.00 line, but the
drop last week in ALDE has brought the stock back to the C$1.75
puts it at the bottom of an obvious trading range, one that’s held
well for six months and counting. Now for sure these things only work until they don’t, but the long this
defined range goes on the better your chances of scoring trading win by buying the bottom prices. That’s
where we are this weekend and while I’m not rushing out to play the trade myself, it’s worth a thought for
those readers who trade on a higher frequency than this desk. The percentages are on your side.
Monday update: Thin trading but enough to get it up 9c to $1.84, i.e. midway in that clear trading channel.
An understandable move, not least because copper names were bought all day, but makes the above
comment written Saturday somewhat moot.
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): A fat drop on Friday dragged BIG down to what is its baseline level, with a large
sale order coming from an ETF rebalancing. No guarantees, but I was told the Sprott silver ETF was the
source of the selling which at least makes sense, because
even in the time BIG has graced the Copper Basket (2024 and
2025) it’s changed its name to reflect its move from chasing
silver to becoming a porphyry chaser sponsored by Barrick. So
in much the same vein as the ALDE commentary above, BIG
could be a near-term trade flip for the fleet of foot. However
and unlike ALDE, this isn’t a stock I’d be confident in owning
for an extended period. Its current drill program is crunch time
for the Hercules project after last year’s false start, the
company now assuring us it has a better interpretation on
(Monday evening update: BIG was bought readily on the back
of a “Hello We’re Drilling And Everything Is Wonderful!” NR
from the company Monday morning, closing at 64c.
The Producer Basket
After 25 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 56.18% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1127 65.63 58.23 56.4%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 60.26 121.02 54.7%
3 Barrick B 15.50 1748.05 36.60 20.94 35.1%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 31.85 165.80 41.0%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 4.78 3.64 49.2%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 4.27 20.83 40.1%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 3.82 4.83 94.8%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 3.52 6.81 71.1%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 2.71 9.13 63.6%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 2.10 13.99 55.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 56.18%
9
The gold stock bull market took a week off and just two of our ten Producer Basket stocks were green on the
week (NEM, FNV). The other eight were losers and most of them were around the 3.0% point, with the
biggest loser Wesdome (WDOFF down 5.3%). However, our overall average did better than the 4.0% lost by
the GDX benchmark on the week and that means we’ve sneaked back into the lead in our annual semi-
serious contest (and I’m still somewhat amazed I can write that after what happened in Q1).
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
70% comparative to GDX control
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to): Despite bring the biggest loser of our ten last week, arguably WDO
brought the best fundies news to the table when announcing (5) its revolving credit facility had been upped
to $250m (+$50m concertina) from the original $150m. WDO hadn’t drawn on the previous facility, so it’s
more of a show of (financial) strength at this point, but it does provide an instant line of credit if WDO wants
to buy another next Angus Gold. And the bank will be happy enough, it earns double the amount on its
standby.
Barrick Mining (B) (ABX.to): The two things about
Barrick’s news out of Mali last week (6). Firstly and laughing
at our conjecture last week, the Malian courtroom did indeed
finally convene and handed down the long-delayed ruling on
the ownership of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine. With the court
convened, to nobody’s great surprise it sided with the
government and against the foreign robber barons (who
have invested untold billions and paid mountains of
taxes…but hey, details). The initial verdict is a six month
provisional administration period with the mine’s operations
handed over to a local lawyers’ firm nominee, but the idea of
“six months provisional” is as legitimate as a seven dollar bill and the chances of that period being extended
are around 1.0 level on the standard probability scale. Secondly, nobody cared:
As the price chart above shows, the market had alreasy
priced in the loss of Loulo-Gounkoto into the price and as
such, B shares managed to improve by 3% during the
shortened four day trading week on the NYSE.
Newmont (NEM): Even better than Barrick’s performance,
the #1 gold miner kept its run going last week and if we use
the same GDX comparative (but this time a ten-day lapse),
we see how NEM was bought hard two Fridays ago along
with the rest of the market (GDX dixit) but unlike peers, held
on to all the gains last week and managed to close up 0.6%
on the week nand more importantly, up 11.2% over the last
two weeks (B was up 5.7% on the fortnight).
The TinyCaps List
After 25 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 24.16% to level stakes:
10
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
8%
ikn 6%
gdx control
4%
2%
0%
source: IKN calcs -2%
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 135.557 14.91 0.11 -35.3%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 149.913 17.24 0.115 -20.7%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.995 6.43 0.065 -50.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.296 33.50 0.19 31.0%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 85.7 58.28 0.68 74.4%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 24.38 0.20 150.0%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 268.9 64.54 0.24 84.6%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.554 12.37 0.115 35.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 69.2 17.99 0.26 -52.7%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 25.47 0.175 25.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 24.16%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Our TinyCaps list managed to consolidate the big move of
30% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
the week before successfully, adding just under 2% to the
25%
basket average thanks to the five winners (BRO.v, CN.v,
20%
KDK.v, LMS.v, MOG.v) beating out the three losers 15%
(RDU.v, STS.v, VAU.v), with the two unchanged stocks 10%
(ELY.v, EDG.v) making up the numbers. Most of the 5%
0%
moves were modest for this type of stocks and indeed, the
-5%
only double figure percentage move was in Kodiak Copper
-10%
(KDK.v up 13.3%).
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): Another NR from ELY this
week and unusually, it dropped this very Sunday June 22nd (7). The headline “Electrum Discovery Extends
Geochemical Footprint and Confirms New Gold Targets at the Karamanica Prospect at Novo Tlamino” is a
decent tell on its contents with the company taking a very similar line to the NR reported last weekend. ELY is
telling us that it’s active on its other projects in Serbia, refining targets for its next drill program and…it’s still
not drilling. Which is fair enough and In other news, its AGM material was filed to SEDAR last week and the
most interesting nugget is its agenda resolution to redomicile from Canada to Abu Dhabi, UAE.
The bottom line is the same as last time, ELY shapes as one of those tinycaps you could accumulate while
hated and flip out down the line when it starts making market waves (I’d guess 2026 on that, but it could
happen sooner or later). A potential trade for the risk tolerant and patient.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): If Surge Copper (SURG.v) hadn’t moved well last week I’d be kicking myself hard
today, as such it’s still somewhat annoying to see KDK do what it’s done recently after identifying the stock
as a potential mover and then watching from the sidelines as it zoomed higher this month. For example, the
note on KDK in IKN826 dated March 16th, just after its closed its latest placement in IKN826 “KDK at this
level offers decent risk/reward for your speculative copper money, its trading history includes plenty of spike
moments and the potential for a quick flip win. Personally, I’ll stick with Surge Copper (SURG.v) but KDK is a
valid alternative.” As this YTD chart shows, we’re up over 50% since then.
11
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Last week’s NR from KDK (8) had all the hallmarks of a primer,
getting the market ready for its maiden resource estimate (MRE)
due any time now. Volumes have improved considerably too, a
combo of items that remind me of another comment made in the
past, specifically IKN828:
“…we’re coming up to the moment we get the maiden resources
estimate (MRE) on its MDN property and if the jungle drums start
to sound good on that, I’d expect volume to perk up before the
announcement.”
Ugh. I can only hope that a few of you bought some of the cheap paper.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Mexico: Sheinbaum addresses the mining question
Is this why IKN840 was delayed 24 hours? No, that’s because I’ve been battling against my own brain the
last five days (final result: I lost) but it would be remiss not to add this segment today Monday as, for the
first time, President Claudia Sheinbaum made direct reference to the mining industry in her regular morning
TV slot, “La People’s Morning Show” (La Mañanera del Pueblo) this Monday morning, the full recording
available here (9). The timing is most interesting, as we have already noted that Mexico’s government is set
to lay out its plans for the mining industry in a law bill it will send to parliament and the last word from her
mining secretary was that it would happen “before the end of June (i.e. now) so getting these question and
answers in her TV show, a platform often used for policy roll-outs, catches the eye.
As for what President Sheinbaum said (10), it was very much along the lines of her campaiogn agenda of last
year and the framework set out when announcing the five year economic plan at the start of 2025, i.e. no
new mining concessions for open-pit mining that her government was paying more attention to
environmental issues caused by mining operations and as such, existing concessions and permits are being
revised. However, the was one positive when Sheinbaum confirmed that the law project proposed by her
predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), has been shelved. In her words:
“Two weeks after we entered govenment, I mentioned that the law bill had problems because to
prohibit, and on this I have spoken with ex-President López Obrador, all open pit mines implies the
banning of sand or cement mines for the construction industry, or salt mines, for example…..if the
law or constitutional reform had been passed in the form it had been presented (to parliament) it
would have affected lithium mining, for example, which is one of the targets we have for State
mining development.”
She also addressed a subject close to this author’s heart when mentioning that authorities were revising all
additional permits required by companies to operate, case in point the Santana mine’s tailings amendment
permits:
“Currently, there are mining concessions that require permits for their operations, as permits are not
given out just once and for all time. These are permits that are related to the location of tailings, with
water treatment and many other things related to mining activity.”
Overall, the main takeaway is a clear positive and chiefly because with President Sheinbaum bringing the
subject to the public light today, it’s on the government agenda and getting mining actively addressed by the
Sheinbaum admin is at least half the issue. As for the details, the “no new concessions” and “active
concessions more closely controlled” is as per her campaign literature and that’s good (and she stated on a
couple of occasions that “she would never lie” to her public and there had been no changes in plans). The
main new news from today is the confirmation that the law bill to ban open pit mining in Mexico, the one that
started all the fuss back over a year ago, is dead.
12
With the subject broached, we can now expect movement from the Mining ministry. We laid out the
framework for what to expect in IN837 dated On Mexico’s mining inertia, here’s a small excerpt from that
text:
“Back at PDAC in March, we heard (6) government representative Fernando Aboitiz tell his audience
that "By June, we will have regulations that clarify the rules and provide more certainty. We're
working on this together with the chamber [of mining, Camimex]." And June starts today, so we may
get some some of official government pronouncement as early as tomorrow Monday, though I’d
wager more on a date closer to the end of this month than the beginning (or even July).”
The show today has all the hallmarks of Sheinbaum and her government putting the subject on the table, the
timing is right and the next step should be what we see above. The sooner things start moving, the better.
Colombia: The “temporary” nature reserves multiply
When Colombia passed the resolution last year that would allow the government to declare any given zone of
the country a “temporary nature reserve” in order to study the effects of development on the zone in
question before granting permits, we expected trouble and said as much. A law designed to comply with the
Colombian Constitutional (i.e. Supreme) Court ruling that makes environmental studies and prior consultancy
hearings for locals directly affected by civil works compulsory, it creates a three year freeze on development.
We first saw it applied in the hotspot of the Santurban Paramo (Aris Mining Soto Norte most affected), last
week was the turn of AngloGold Ashanti (AU) at its controversial Quebradona project in the Antoquia region.
The designation of its temporary reserve status yesterday Satursay 21st (11) means all exploration and
development at the project (and all other mine projects in the region) must now stop and you can bet cash
money to a donut that the freeze will cover the full five years. That makes two and with Mocoa (Copper
Giant) next on the list, expect the Petro government to wield its newly found power to kick cans down the
road more often.
Argentina: Unions flexing
Here’s a story to keep an eye on, as Lundin Mining and/or the Vicuña JV with BHP may have ruffled the
feathers of Argentina’s notoriously powerful trade unions. It also dovetails neatly with the point made in
IKN838 two weeks ago in the note “Chile is the France of South America” as in the specfic case of the
Argentine attitude toward Chileans, it’s “ambivalent at best” (to be diplomatic) and what’s more, the closer
you get to the border between the countries the more the antipathy grows.
The fun began early this week when Lundin Mining (LUN.to) filed to SEDAR its 43-101 filed its 43-101
compliant Technical Report for its the Vicuña Project, effective date of April 15. As part of the report, LUN
stated that the eventual build and operation of the Josemaria and Filo projects (with BHP) would be able to
draw on workforce from the San Juan province, from greater Argentina but also from Chile, with the latter
explained because Argentina’s neighbour “has solid mining sector and experienced mining personnel”.
This information reached the ears of the “Syndicated Association of Experienced Professional and Technical
Mining Activity Personnel” (La Asociación Sindical del Personal Jerárquico, Profesional y Técnico de la
Actividad Minera Argentina, aka Asijemin) and a right mouthful in any language. In response last week, the
union published (12) its “firm rejection of the LUN position of potentially contracting Chilean personnel for an
Argentine mine project, stating its “deep preoccupation” regarding Lundin’s “obvious preference for foreign
labour” and the “unjustified exclusion” of San Juan based workers and suppliers who have “the training,
experience and required vocation for mining”, as San Juan has a “long-established mining tradition” and “vast
experience in the training of qualified human resources” thanks to the numerous schools, colleges and
universities that support the training of the workforce and development of specialized suppliers. The open
letter went on (and on and on) in the same vein, as did the press conferences} called by the union. President
Milei’s new government or not, a company of any type is wise not to get on the wrong side of the unions in
Argentina and if LUN learns quickly from this episode, then all good. It is, however, a shot across the bow for
the Vicuña project or any other large-scale copper project looking to set up in the Andean cordillera in the
months and years to come. There’s no love lost between Chile and Argentina and that might create a
development bottleneck as Argentina’s copper development rolls out.
Ecuador: One good and one bad
We saw the realization of campaign promise from President Daniel Noboa when last week with pomp,
circumstance (13)and a dedicated TV interview with Noboa (he promised “development and transparency”)
13
the new Noboa presidency opened the mining registry (catastro minero) for the first time since 2019 when
concessioning was suspended during the Moreno admin. Officially called the “National Mining Cadastre”, the
registry will allow new concessions and in this first phase, is for non-metal mining applications only. We can
expect metals concessions to be awarded as from 2026.
The government made the new mining tax (see IKN838 and IKN839) official law last week by publishing the
law in the Official Gazette (14), with first payments due from mining companies this July. The law is based on
the area each company has under concession, which is why Keith Barron
of Aurania Resources (ARU.v) was complaining so vociferously last week
as the ARU game plan involves (involved??) getting as many hectares of
concessions under its control as possible. They’re now on the hook for
big maintenance payments, as are other companies such as China’s
Junefield and SolGold (SOLG.L), one of the biggest concession holders in
the country though to its advantage, SOLG has the treasury power to
pay up. ARU has had a tough time in 2025, particularly when compared
to fellow Ecuador exploreco (and our trade position in the country),
Salazar Resources (SRL.v).
Bolivia: Evo ups the social unrest ante
Sigh. Instead of being able to let this subject rest, I’m resigned to what seems to be a small update every
weekend because, sadly, Bolivia is descending fast into the chaos of its own making (i.e. an election) and it’s
all about Evo. Last week in a presser, the Ex-President used thinly veiled threats the remaining candidates in
the election and warned that if a right wing candidate won we would see “how long they held out” in the
unrest his supporters would cause in the weeks and months that would follow. The overall tone was in
defiance to the arrest warrant now out on him (he’s staying in his stronghold zone where he’s effectively
untouchable, but he’d be in jail in a heartbeat if he showed his face in La Paz) and while roads have stayed
largely unblocked since last weekend, the atmosphere is rarefied. Señor Morales may have been reacting to a
new voter intention poll published last week by SPIE Consulting (15) (2,500 people polled between June 7th
and 14th) for the national newspaper El Deber. Here’s the main result:
Samuel Doria Medina: 24.02%
Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga: 22.07%
Andrónico Rodríguez: 14.69%
Manfred Reyes Villa: 9.39%
Rodrigo Paz: 5.56%
All other candidates polled under 3%, including the official MAS government candidate Eduardo Del Castillo
and as a side note, I had a small chuckle about the way the pollster used used two decimal points in an
attempt to convey scientific accuracy to a poll on what’s shaping as crazy, even by LatAm standards.
Meanwhile and probably most importantly, the only real lefty in with a chance, Andrónico Rodríguez, is given
14.69% and put in third place. That may be because the Evo hardcore support are refusing to back anyone
except their glorious leader (in public at least), but if the August round one result turns puts Tuto and Samuel
in the run-off, Bolivia would hten be guaranteed a right wing (or at least right-leaning) President for the first
time in two decades. And that’, above all, is why we capitalists with FDI dry powder looking in from the
outside care about this election.
Conclusion
IKN840 is done. I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and
Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://redpineexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Red-Pine-Exploration-Inc.-Financing-Press-Release-June-19-2025-v2.pdf
14
(2) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/256433/Red-Pine-Announces-Upsize-of-Brokered-Offering-to-8.5-Million
(3) https://www.mining.com/web/lme-imposes-new-restrictions-on-holders-of-large-positions/
(4) https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103380442
(5) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2025/Wesdome-Gold-Mines-Upsizes-Revolving-Credit-Facility-
on-Improved-Terms-and-Extends-Maturity/default.aspx
(6) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-holding-firm-through-ICSID-arbitration-amid-malian-court-
ruling/default.aspx
(7) https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/554-tsx-venture/ely/182403-electrum-discovery-extends-
geochemical-footprint-and-confirms-new-gold-targets-at-the-karamanica-prospect-at-novo-tlamino.html?s=03
(8) https://kodiakcoppercorp.com/kodiak-begins-2025-exploration-program-at-the-mpd-copper-gold-porphyry-project/
(9) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20_-e9xPUTM
(10) https://contralinea.com.mx/interno/semana/sheinbaum-no-se-otorgaran-nuevas-concesiones-para-mineria-a-cielo-abierto/
(11) https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2025/06/23/ministerio-de-ambiente-emitio-resolucion-que-declaro-reserva-temporal-de-recursos-
naturales-a-suroeste-antioqueno-muhamad-celebro-la-decision/
(12) https://www.diariohuarpe.com/nota/asijemin-rechazo-que-lundin-mining-contrate-chilenos-para-sus-proyectos-202561913430
(13) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-reopens-mining-concession-registry-after-seven-years-2025-06-17/
(14) https://www.bancaynegocios.com/entra-en-vigor-en-ecuador-tasa-minera-que-el-gobierno-aprobo-pese-al-fuerte-rechazo-del-sector/
(15) https://eldeber.com.bo/pais/samuel-y-tuto-lideran-la-intencion-de-voto-en-la-primera-encuesta-nacional-de-el-deber_519231/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
15
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
16
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
17
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
18