6 The IKN Weekly, issue 838 — Jun 09, 2025
The IKN Weekly
Week 838, June 8th 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, US Jobs and Donald jawbone, Silver makes a move.
Fundamental Analysis: More Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Buying Latin Metals (LMS.v).
Stocks to Follow: Lumina Gold (LUM.v), Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), AbraSilver (ABRA.to), i-80 Gold Corp
(IAUX) (IAU.to), Gold Royalty (GROY), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Eldorado (EGO).
The Copper Basket: Overview, XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v), SolGold (SOLG.to), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to),
Element 29 (ECU.v), Kobrea (KBX.cse).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF), Barrick Mining (B) (ABX.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, South Star (STS.v), Endurance Gold (EDG.v), Condor Resources (CN.v),
Mogotes Metals (MOG.v).
Regional Politics: A new mining tax in Ecuador, Chile gives more environmental approvals, Chile is the
France of South America, Bolivia: Andrónico on the ballot and the Evo roadblocks.
Market Watching: Collective Mining (CNL.to) and the ownership of Apollo, NGEx Resources (NGEX.to)
flexing its muscles, Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.to) has issues and copper bears should be nervous but at least the
shares look cheap.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Maybe this was the subconscious reason for the delay in delivery this week, but even if it’s mercenary timing
on my part I’m taking advantage. The news today Monday June 9th that Latin Metals (LMS.v) had obtained
the drill permits for the Organullo project in Argentina, in JV with AngloGold Ashanti, is the trigger we
required from the stock and with nearly 12,000m of fully funded drilling now about to happen there we’re
going to jump on board. I’m a buyer of Latin Metals (LMS.v) as from tomorrow Tuesday.
Meanwhile and as threatened last weekend, I got my price in Aftermath Silver during last week and sold the
position. I also plan to cash in my Lumina Gold (LUM.v) trade this week in order to raise more treasury. See
Stocks to Follow for thoughts on both trades.
In today’s edition
Today’s main fundies section has two subjects today, the first being the scheduled brief notes on how
the news last week from Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v) fits in with our updated analysis last
weekend. That was all I’d planned to run, but today Monday brings a last-minute additional note that
pulls the trigger on our Watch List stock Latin Metals (LMS.v), a section that would not have existed if I
hadn’t fallen asleep at my desk on Sunday evening and then ordered to bed by my better half. But
that’s another story.
I’m happy to be long silver as the metal broke out last week, but I’m not piling on or doubling down
any bets on the Jekyll & Hyde metal. That’s today’s main intro note.
Last week was “Have to like the way the copper market is shaping up in 2025” and between then and
now, the market franked our optimism in no uncertain terms. This week’s Copper Basket considers
what we’ve seen and decides there may be more to come, we also look at individual copper stocks in
Copper Basket, a couple of big caps in Market Watching and the ones we own in Stocks to Follow,
including the telling news and price move we witnessed in Marimaca Copper (MARI.to) last week.
Copper’s the place to be, better and less risk than silver.
1
And on the subject of bigger market cap companies, today’s Producer Basket is happy that the list is
back ahead of the GDx benchmark, but far moe important than my silly little game is the reasons
behind the Q2 turnaround.
The main fundies section considers the news out of our laggard Top Pick, Minera Alamos (MAI.v), as a
follow-up from our longer analysis in IKN837. We also field a reader query on Eldorado Gold (EGO) and
the house target price, let slip a dirty little secret about sell side targets and remind readers that the
way in which The IKN Weekly works isn’t the best, it’s the least worst.
Other things as well. There are always other things.
US Jobs and Donald jawbone
In last week’s opening salvo, “US Jobs and Jerome jawbone”, we previewed the US jobs numbers that came
in on Friday with headline numbers (+139k NFP jobs, UR 4.2%) very close to expectations, or at least if we
don’t delve too far under the headline numbers and note that March and April revisions took 95k jobs off the
register but we won’t do that, this is a mining publication after all. What we didn’t forecast is something else
that happened on Friday (1):
June 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by a full percentage point, President Donald
Trump said on Friday as he reiterated his view that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been too slow to lower
borrowing costs.
"Europe has had 10 rate cuts, we have had none. Despite (Powell), our Country is doing great. Go for a full point,"
Trump wrote in a social media post. Central banks typically limit rate moves to quarter point changes outside of
crises.
On the other hand it’s not that much of a surprise, we already know President Trump is all about cutting
rates as quickly as possible and is up for a public battle of words with the head of the Federal Reserve (more
surprising this weekend was learning Bessent gave Elon his shiner, let the soap opera run and run), so with
the next chapter of Jay vs Don about to be written, eyes now turn to this coming Wednesday and the BLS
reading for the Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. Current consensus (2) is +0.2% increase, with
the year-on-year aggregate at +2.5% and that’s unlikely to be out by very much, what with the recent PCE
reading coming in slightly lower than expected. Expect more noise about an aggressive rates drop on the
back of the number from the Oval Office, expect silence from the Fed and as for market reaction, even if CPI
andf its fallout moves the market one way or another, we should by now have realized that whatever
happens will quickly be forgotten as the news cycle moves on to its next dose of crazy.
Silver makes a move
“It certainly takes bravery to remain skeptical; it takes inordinate courage
to introspect, to confront oneself, to accept one's limitations—Scientists
are seeing more and more evidence that we are specifically designed
by mother nature to fool ourselves.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden
Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, 2001
I’ve always had a soft spot for Nassim Nicholas Taleb, even though he’s exactly the type of person who rubs
me up the wrong way. But before I realized how boorish, snide, arrogant and generally superior he makes
himself out to be, I was already smitten with him as a writer and that’s what really matters. Others may
prefer Black Swan or Antifragile, but for me it will always be Fooled by Randomness, which I read in one
sitting back in 2002 while sitting in the UK and recovering from five years in Argentina. It came to mind while
compiling today’s note on silver under a working
title of “Q: When is a breakout not a breakout? A:
When it’s a silver breakout”. Yes indeed, silver last
week managed to bust through a stubborn ceiling
price of just over U$33/oz and a good thing too,
even if the timing was later than I expected and as
a result, I missed out on some of the upside in
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v) by selling six cents too
early. But that’s a minor issue, what matters
moretoday is in this price chart (right).
2
We saw a strong move in silver last week, my idea of “better late than never” but you’re still not going to see
this desk jump on the new round of “To Da Moon” whooping and hype that came to a social media channel
near you last week and the rest of today’s main intro note explains why. To begin, our position regards silver
has been fairly consistent this year, we can sum it up in three short statements:
Constructively bullish
The potential to spike higher
Real world supply and demand issues will cap the gains
And being a consistent position, there are plenty of examples of op-eds or thoughts in previous editions to
choose from as illustrations. Regarding the first two and the positive side of the coin, a neat and tiday
example is the intro to IKN826 dated March 16th 2025, prosaically entitled “Silver setting up for a spike
higher”. That day’s op-ed repeated our constructive opinion of silver, the “bullish not moonish” position that
started once gold had got into full gear, then laid out a reasonable target or two. Here’s a quick quote:
More pertinent to the intro section, the bullish not moonish call for the metal is an accurate description
of what we’ve seen so far.
However, I think silver’s about to get exciting.
Without changing the longer-term call on the metal at all, my thoughts on silver have always included
those moments when it spikes higher and with gold breaking the $3k line (albeit briefly), silver is in line
for closer examination from people with far more money than the average metals desk.
That quote was followed by the price spread table of the gold/silver ratio (GSR) we rna in three or four
editions of The IKN Weekly during Q1, all with a view to
framing a price target for silver, here right is a screenshot of
the IKN826 version with a little red ink added. First the
obvious critiques to my constructively bullish position back
then, above all the timing which hasn’t been great; it’s taken
almost three months and a gold price that’s needed to stay
above U$3,300/oz, rather than the U$3k of that day, to trigger
silver into action. Secondly, the decision to estimate a silver
target using 75X, 85X and 90X GSR compared to what we’ve
seen since then, i.e. a ratio that sailed above 100X (to the
consternation of many) and is still at 93X this weekend.
And since the end of Q1 we’ve been waiting patienty for a
move in silver like the one we saw last week, the “better late than never” move that now sees the price
threatening the U$36/oz line. All good and we’re also aware of how silver doesn’t just move in a gentle
upswing at times like these, we could easily see the U$36/oz, U$38/oz and even U$41/oz in the red circles
above right.
That’s one side of the coin, i.e. the fast price moves in a breakout and market’s propensity to move silver
with headline-making speed. Now for the other side of the
Silver: Supply surplus or deficit
coin, a reminder of the ongoing supply/demand balance
(positive = surplus, negative = deficit)
that won’t help silver maintain any new, higher perice 64.2 52.2 45
13.5 9.8
deck. The main recent commentary on this came in
IKN832 dated April 27th and the intro note “Weaker than -18.4
expected demand for silver isn’t helping the price” in
-79.2
which we delved into the supply and demand details of
silver as reported in the latest Silver Institute annual
report. In that intro note, we considered the moving parts
of supply and demand, tipped our cap to the disappointing
non-growth of demand in the photovoltaic sector, noted
the way in which silver was apparently being re-cycled as
sellers liquidated and took profits and also took in the way in which silver’s much-vaunted supply deficit was
entering its fifth consecutive year (chart right), a datapoint that the snake-oil salespeople shout loudly, but
known stocks and inventory still easily covered any ongoing deficit (“Identifiable Silver Bullion Inventories”
stood at 1,239.2m oz as at end 2024”) and the potential for the so-called “silver squeeze” was between slim
and none, at least for a few more years and until further notice:
3
6.942-
6.002- 941-
6.711-
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 e5202
M oz Ag
source: Silver Institute, GFMS, IKN ests, IKN calcs
Identifiable silver bullion inventories
4
7.7311 2.2611 5.0801 5.1611
9.048 2.658 5.728
Moz Ag
Other
1800
Comex
1600 London
1400 293.9 317.2 396.5 355.7
1200
1000 299 277.9 318.5
800
600
400
200
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
source: TSI
In other words, while we were (and still are) cognizant that data on silver supply and demand is only one
aspect of its price discovery dynamic and not something that stops the near-term spikes from happening, it’s
still an important factor and it’s likely the real world of silver is going to cap any price move before the
whargle-bargle-wheeeee price targets fed to your eyeballs by snake-oil brigade on social media arrive. Here’s
an excerpt or two from that weekend’s closing paragraph:
“Your author remains constructively bullish on silver and its prospects….however the discerning
investor needs to sort the wheat from the chaff and not believe any old statement trotted out in
favour of any given investment vehicle and in the case of silver-the-metal, there tends to be an awful
lot of chaff.”
And…
“…at least some of the perceived underperformance of silver in 2025 to date must be laid at the door
of the physical market for the metal.”
Which brings us to today. Yes, I’m happy about the move in silver last week, for one thing because it fits with
the house model for 2025 and for another, because I’m long silver. However, let’s remain clear-eyed about
the limits as nothing has changed in the real world silver since those words were laid down. Now for sure I’m
willing to be wrong (and as I’m staying long ABRA until it gets bought out I’d profit from the error) but at the
same time, I’m not going to chase this spike in silver because, as the long-term silver price chart (right)
shows, it has a clear tendency to disappoint its most fervent supporters (eg the Hunt Brothers at the top of
the first spike, or Eric Sprott at the top of the
second). Now for sure the current price isn’t
U$50/oz and the long-term chart also speaks of the
potential for silver to rip even higher before
reversing (history and its tendency to rhyme and all
that), you may want to play that potential and if you
do, I wish you the best of fortune. Me personally,
I’m going to stick to what we can deduce from the
state of the silver market in 2025. The fundamentals
of silver are not as bullish as current market
sentiment, a cocktail that can become very
expensive if one isn’t careful around this most fickle
of market mistresses. Or to draw from the extremely
quotable Fooled by Randomness a second time,
“Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) gives more on Copperstone
Wednesday June 4th brought a timely addition to last week’s catch-up report on our laggard Top Pick, as this
NR from MAI (3) gave us an update on progress at its new gig, Copperstone in Arizona USA. Please use the
link and read it all and in fact, MAI offers a bullet point list of the highlights to kick off its NR but we’re going
to focus on the most important information as regards our trade position. We begin with these two bullet
points from the NR:
All key permits have been received with exception of minor amendments which are due to a
slight change in processing technology.
The final amendment to the project’s MPO is expected to be received prior to YE-2025 which
allows full re-start of the Copperstone Mine.
Nearly all permits are in place (but don’t let that worry you): MAI explains that its “fully permitted”
Copperstone isn’t 100% permitted because it wants to adopt operations techniques that were not included in
the original permit. Therefore it has applied for permit amendments and while that might sound like another
potential horror story in the making, as seen by MAI in Mexico, this could not be any more different. Before
last week I’d been told about the likelihood for an amendment to the current permit but this cannot be
stressed enough, the process is straightforward and the chances of the Arizona governor or US national
executives “doing an AMLO” and stopping a basic admin-level permit amendment are practically zero. If you
worry about being hit by lightning when out in a storm you might want to be concerned about this, but that’s
all there is and when the company says “By the fourth quarter of 2025, the Copperstone Mine is expected to
have secured all required permits amendments to support a planned restart of gold mining operations in
2026” there’s no real reason to think otherwise, this is not Mexico and it’s certainly not the same permitting
situation. And while on the subject, be clear that the permit amendment is not even critical path something
underscored by MAI in the NR, which means we’re going to see plenty of project advancement in 2025 under
the current permit even before the amendment is awarded. Initial planning has already begun and while we’ll
get an engineering study to update the numbers and mine plan publicly in 4q25, the company knows enough
from its PEA and in-house studies to move forward now.
I don’t know what else I can say to assuage any doubts you might have on the minor changes MAI needs to
become fully permitted, though even this isn’t the most important subject for our trade thesis. More pertinent
again is the bullet point at the bottom of its highlights list:
Project finance discussions continue with a number of interested parties that have provided
indicative term sheets. The Company is evaluating all options to support the development restart.
This tells us several things, not least there’s a plural of interest among financiers to back this project, despite
the delays seen in its Mexican developments. With term sheets
with an S already submitted, the ball in now in MAI’s court and
we won’t have to wait long before we know the identity of the
partner and the accepted terms. And for what it’s worth, I
expect Auramet is in the frame.
Market reaction to last week’s news was muted (chart right)
and while MAI moved up on the week, it’s only took one
profit-taker on Friday to remove most of the accrued gains.
Whether or not that’s understandable under the circumstances
is up for debate, as the market still seems to view MAI as a
Mexico story stuck in permitting limbo, instead of the new
direction it’s going to take this year with or without a change
in its permitting fortunes in that country. As to sign off, please note that last week’s price target box…
….was based on a low 4X multiple for Copperstone only and at U$3,000/oz gold, which will seem rather
conservative come the end of the year and a company on the way to opening its second producing operation.
5
When the re-rate comes for MAI is another unknown (to this desk at least) but come it surely will and it only
needs Copperstone to happen to move a lot higher. The real reason to be long is the multiple-bag win that
will manifest as Sheinbaum’s Mexico makes good on its new format for mining and as noted last weekend,
we should get government-level word on that this month.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Buying
Honestly, this feels like cheating. That or maybe some sort of subconscious tidal power was at play when I
decided last night not to try and finish this edition of The IKN Weekly, IKN838, while feeling dog tired and
exhausted. If I’d published last night this would have been either a Flash update or I would have waited to
see whether interest in the story waxed and then waned by the end of the week, instead I get to move while
the news is still fresh.
There are several reasons to like this well-run project generator company, but the main reason Latin Metals
(LMS.v) made it to our Watch List as from IKN829 dated April 6th
Was the way in which three of its most interesting projects seemed to be ready to bear fruit. Since that time
we’ve waited for official news and today Monday June 9th this dropped on the wires (4):
Vancouver, B.C. – Latin Metals Inc. ("Latin Metals" or the "Company") - (TSXV: LMS)
(OTCQB: LMSQF) is pleased to report that a Social & Environmental Impact Report (“SEIR”) (Informe
de Impacto Ambiental y Social – Etapa de Exploración Avanzada) has been approved for exploration
drilling at the Organullo Gold Project ("Organullo" or the "Project"), located in Salta Province,
Argentina. The SEIR approval is issued in favour of Cardero Argentina S.A., a wholly owned
subsidiary of Latin Metals, and authorizes various exploration activities including up to 11,900m of
diamond drilling.
That’s excellent news. It took longer to arrive than this desk expected and in the meantime, we got wind that
one of LMS’s other projects, the Esperanza copper project optioned out to privco Moxico, had failed in its
attempt to lift a drilling ban at the locality, so it was beginning to look negative for this tinycap and I’d started
wondering whether it still deserved a place on the Watch List. Today changes all that and the drilling green
light means it’s time to get off the fence, buy shares and if all goes well, reap the benefits of this tightly-run
project generator stock.
First we get up to date with the basic numbers behind LMS (for more background, please see IKN829) via our
standard topbox:
Shares out: 121.915m
Options: 9.45m
Warrants: 43.13m
Fully diluted: 147.m
Current share price: C$0.15
Market Cap: C$10.43m
Approx cash per S/O: 1.1c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated, forex CAD$1 = USD 0.70
Since we last spoke LMS has run and closed a finanincing and raised gross proceeds of C$1.33m, which
means the share count is up from 109m and change
to 121.915m shares out. Options and warrants are
also up, which means the fully diluted total has moved
from 147m and change to this weekend’s 174.495m.
However, cash at bank is up and perhaps most
importantly, the share price has moved from the 9.5c
registered in IKN829 to this Monday evening’s 15c, an
extra penny added today (most likely on the Organullo
permit news. Indeed, this YTD chart shows LMS
traded in a tight-ish range around the 12c line until
last week, somebody somewhere must have got wind
that Organullo had received its green light.
6
Back in IKN829 I wasn’t a buyer because I thought there was a chance this thinly-traded stock might dump
lower, but that has not been the case (stupid me). Trading remained thin in April and May however, so I
wasn’t tempted much at the typical 12c price.
LMS.v: Shares Out
Putting the extra shares and the new price together, the
LMS market cap of C$18.29m is almost C$8m up on the
reading nine weeks ago. Here’s how the share count now
looks and please note, the last two columns are still
officially “estimated” because the 2q25 financials are not
in yet (LMS quarter end is April 30th, that report should
drop by the end of this month).
Now for a reminder on Organullo and we’re keeping it
simple today, here’s a copypaste of the IKN829 overview
verbatim:
Organullo: An early stage gold project in the North of Argentina, Salta province (and
named after the local river, not after anyone’s organs), LMS optioned the project to
AngloGold Ashanti (AU), the big miner optioning in to 75% ownership on these terms:
Once complete, AU can move its ownership to 80% by completing a maiden resource
estimate and making dollars-per-ounce payments to LMS. We haven’t heard much about
Organullo for the last couple of years, mainly because AU has been working behind the
scenes to get drill permits authorized as well as doing target generation geology work on
the property. However, 2025 will probably see an uptick in news about Organullo as in
February and after a long process, AU completed its prior consultancy work with the local
community (the town of San Antonio de los Cobres, population 6,000) and presentation to
explain what it wants to do in the next stage. The town audience at the start of February
was apparently well-received; however it still faces anti-mining opposition from the local
“Kolla” indigenous community around the project area. In previous years this opposition by
a small but influential minority was enough to stop AU from being drilled but, in Milei’s new
Argentina with a regional Salta government keen on getting mining development going, it
seems highly unlikely that at least the 2025 drilling permit will not be awarded. The verdict
on the drill permit is expected in the next couple of weeks and once that happens,
Organullo will go under the AU drillbit. The major has dedicated close to three years on
development and clearly likes what it sees (even locals say anecdotally there are “millions
of ounces of gold” in the project area), so the permit award should be good news for the
LMS share price and if not, initial drill results could provide the eventual trigger.
In other words, LMS gets a 20% free carry along with a couple of useful cash payments (including one just
received of $200k). We should also note that as part of the optioning deal, AU must spend at least U$4m in
the next 12 months and another U$4m between June 2026 and June 2027, so that means they won’t hang
around in deploying the drill rigs and moving the project forward now that the permits are in-hand.
As for the prize, it’s understood inside AU that Organullo ranks high in its league table of targets and is
probably their #1 in South America (not just Argentina), it’s held in high regard. At some point conjecture
devolves into geological arm-waving but it’s fair to say that conceptually, they are on the hunt for a multi-
millon ounce gold deposit and I’ve seen numbers bandied around between the 5m oz and 11m oz range for
the potential at Organullo, so something even at the low end would make a vast difference to LMS and its
U$15m market cap.
7
308.64 300.84 470.84
692.75 686.75 686.75 686.75
296.96 917.07 674.17 674.17 674.17 674.17 674.18 674.18
7.901 7.901 28.901
29.121
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2 tse52q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
I was concerned about the permitting process and in the last couple of months kept a close eye on regional
and local media channels around Organullo. There have been a few protests by anti-mining locals and NGOs
have set up an anti-mining lobby HQ in the local town (at an old schoolhouse), which made the papers a
couple of weekends ago, but the issuance of the permits allays all those concerns and fears. Indeed, the local
population and community were fully engaged in the permitting process and while there are a percentage of
“No Mining” stalwarts in the town, the absolute nubers are small and they seem to be a minority so there’s
very little no chance of seeing hundred or thousands of marchers trying to disrupt this drilling program now
that it has been officially sanctioned.
The bottom line: IKN829 focused on the three projects at Latin Metals (LMS.v) that seem to be ready to bear
fruit and since then, we’ve seen this:
Cerro Bayo: No word yet
Esperanza: Red Light
Organillo: Green Light
The Esperanza news is a clear negative and we reported on it at the time in IKN835 dated May 18th, but it
wasn’t a dealbreaker because LMS only need one of the three to happen to become a live prospect. That has
now happened and with a company as big as AU as JV partner, we can expect immediate advancement, drills
on site in the near future and newsflow for the next two years. Meanwhile, we could still get more good news
if LMs secures a deal for Cerro Bayo (or any of its other projects, such as the interesting Peru copper
properties it has on the books) but by then we’re already going to be long and bought in. I am a buyer of
LMS shares this week and the stock will move from Watch List to main table as from next weekend, IKN839.
Stocks to Follow
The market rally in mining stocks continues, as do the good times for our Stocks to Follow list. Of the 19
stocks on the table this time last week, four were week-over-week losers (SRL.v, RPX.v, OCI.v, MENE.v) and
of those, the only real percentage damage was taken by Orecap (OCI.v down 13.3%, or a penny in real
terms). Two others were unchanged (LUM.v, MIRL.cse) and that leaves thirteen in the winning column,
including the biggest percentage gains seen in Aftermath Silver (AAG.v up 25.0%), Marimaca Copper
(MARI.to up 24.1%), i-80 Gold (IAUX up 20.1%), Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up 18.2%), Provenance Gold
(PAU.cse up 17.1%), Surge Copper (SURG.v up 13.0%), AbraSilver (ABRA.to up 10.5%) and just under the
double figures line, Gold Royalty Corp (GROY up 9.7%) also had a good one. Even though three of those big
moves wer in the Watch List and not carrying any of my own money, it’s difficult to complain too much about
the week.
With the sale of Aftermath Silver (AAG.v) we’re down to 18 names on our Stocks to Follow list, two under our
self-imposed maximum. Fifteen trades are in the green, one is unchanged, two are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.3775 79.8% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$1.22 52.5% Fenix build and re-rate on
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$21.13 32.6% Added Feb'25, now going well
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.89 22.7% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.71 87.2% Quality Cu dev, FS due
AbraSilver ABRA.to STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$4.33 58.6% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$2.03 45.0% Going to U$3+, still cheap
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.14 75.0% Ecuador buyout trade
Lumina Gold LUM.v SELLING C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% cashing in, raising treasury
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.11 0.0% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v spec buy $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.13 23.8% bulk copper in good address
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.065 8.3% top fundy value, illiquid
8
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Latin Metals LMS.v WATCH C$0.095 6-Apr-25 C$0.14 47.4% proj.generator, newsflow soon
i-80 Gold IAUX WATCH U$0.50825 6-Apr-25 U$0.6043 18.9% Looking for entry point
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.065 225.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.24 182.4% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.145 -68.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
Aftermath Silver AAG.v Jun'25 $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.64 50.6% took profits, decent result
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Lumina Gold (LUM.v): SELLING. After due consideration I’m taking profits on LUM and for two reasons:
The current C$1.25 price is as close as dammit is to swearing to the near certain buyout price of
C$1.28. There aren’t any counters or sweeteners coming and the arb is now small.
I’m raising treasury cash for the next purchase. This, along with the funds generated by the win in
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v) will be more than enough for the next round of purchases.
For sure there’s a case to hold out for every penny and that was the original plan, but along the way I’ve
always made it clear that I’d sell early if circumstances demand. That’s where I am today, so as long as I can
get some of the C$1.25 readily available last week in the days to come I’m booking a 60% win in three
months. That’s not a bad return, wouldn’t it be nice if this sector were always that simple to trade?
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): POSITION CLOSED. Last week’s note on AAG started with “Still looking for an
exit” in bold typed caps and down at the end of the segment, added “…if the market decides to rally next
week and AAG reports the nine holes still in the lab, we could still get “something in the 60s” and if so, I’ll
probably take the price and book a modest win.” So when AAG popped to 65c by Monday evening and those
prices were available the next day, I acted on the thought and took profits. For sure I didn’t get the best
prices, waiting just a few more hours would have seen me get at least 67c and waiting until Friday would
have got me at least 70c, but it’s not the first or last time I’ll sell early. It makes for happy trading, I got my
win and left meat on the bone for the next guy.
AbraSilver (ABRA.to): With AAG gone, my direct silver exposure is now via ABRA only and as I’m not
interested in play flips with the dog end of the silver world any longer, it’s probably going to stay this way.
Mind you, there are far worse place to park money than a
stock in the vanguard of the sectorwide move and the
+10.5% move on the week is exactly what’s required. More,
please.
i-80 Gold Corp (IAUX) (IAU.to): STILL WATCHING.
Argh and bother and grrr and so forth, it looks like another
case of Mark snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Three weeks ago in IKN 835 dated May 18th 2025 and that
weekend’s main fundamental analysis note “Why i-80 Gold
9
Corp (IAU.to) (IAUX) is now worth a gamble”, we laid out the value proposition and in particular, the trade
that most interested me of buying at/around the U$0.50 price if possible, then selling for a near-term win
at/around the U$0.70 price, i.e.e the point at which IAUX’s market bumps up against the newly-formed
warrants overhang. So much for that plan…
…as this weekend’s 60c close doesn’t leave enough on the bone to outweigh the risk of playing around with
this unproven turnaround story. So for the time being IAUX will stay on the Watch List as it may retrace and
give a decent entry point but with that said, the way this gold market is bubbling now means the risk is more
likely to the upside. I’ll rue not striking while the iron was hot three weeks ago and chew over a little Hamlet,
instead.
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all;
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry,
And lose the name of action.
Gold Royalty (GROY): Even if this weren’t an active trade I’d be pleased with this call and I don’t mind
admitting, the act of identifying a turnaround stock at the bottom of its drop after watching it literally for
years and hitting the timing well is almost as good as making money in the market.
Almost.
We still have the low U$2 prices of early 2024 to clear, but once those are behind us (and it shouldn’t take
long), our initial U$3.00 target will be in view. Outstanding cvLue compared to other royaltycos in 2025 and
will only improve as 2025 rolls out and becomes 2026. Going higher.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): After almost two months in which MARI has bounced around at the prices
that began in the early April Trump Tariff sell-off, MARI bounced back in fine style last week due to this
significant news (5):
Marimaca Copper Announces Proposed US$17.7 Million Non-Brokered Private Placement
Vancouver, British Columbia, June 4, 2025 – Marimaca Copper Corp. (“Marimaca” or the “Company”) (TSX:
MARI) (ASX: MC2) is pleased to announce a proposed non-brokered private placement (the “Private Placement”)
of an aggregate of 5,311,416 common shares of the Company (the “Shares”) at a price of C$4.60 per Share, for
gross proceeds of approximately US$17,700,000 or approximately C$24,433,000.
The Private Placement is expected to be subscribed for by existing insider shareholders of the Company, Assore
International Holdings Limited (“AIH”) and Ithaki Limited (“Ithaki”), with each subscribing for 2,250,000 Shares and
contributing approximately C$10,350,000. An additional institutional investor together with its affiliates (the
“Additional Investor”) will subscribe on the same terms as AIH and Ithaki for the remaining Shares. An advisory
fee will be payable to Beacon Securities Limited in connection with the investment by the Additional Investor.
This is a classic “Friends And Favours” raising, a placement that is ostensibly about raising extra funds for
working capital but is more about favours for significant backers at the end of the development process. This
deal comes just before the scheduled momenty when MARI presents its Feasibility Study (FS) to the world
and once that report is in the public realm, the company will be able to go out and either 1) approach
financiers for the money that will allow them to build their mine, or 2) shop the project and sell it to the
highest bidder and of the options, the latter is by far the most likely. The insto backers know this too and so
they’re ahppy to get a little extra money on board this structure at a price that’s significantly below the
eventual deal price, thereby pimping their profits nicely.
10
The real reasons for this deal were not lost on the market and rather than drop to the C$4.60 placement
price, the stock zoomed (below left) higher and kept on going, closing at a new ATH (below right).
A bigger hint to what’s about to go down is difficult to imagine
and it’s no surprise to see MARI shares rally. We now await the
announcement of the FS, that could drop at any moment. The
good news for others is that if you’re not long yet, there’s still a
window to make a profit on a MARI trade and a C$7+ selling
price is perfectly attainable.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): While the 6.5c close on Friday was
somewhat disappointing, a look at the price chart shows it may
have been more chance then weakness as the recent trading
range is still intact. Meanwhile, a look at our liquid-ish assets
tracking chart…
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.48 5.66 2.3
ARIC.v 7.39 0.485 3.58 1.4
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.285 1.19 0.5
XXIX.v 22.992 0.115 2.64 1.1
KTR.v 42.750 0.015 0.64 0.3
MERG.v 5.125 0.02 0.10 0.0
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.02 0.49 0.2
subtotal 14.31 5.8
Est.cash 0.03 0.0
Total 14.34 5.8c
At 247.714 S/O
…shows there’s still plenty of real asset value backing up OCI. McGarry is the gravy potential and that, along
with the possibility of seeing AE or ARIC run, are the reasons to hold through at the moment. Lots of value.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): I got a good mail from reader on Saturday morning and while I’m not going to
answer it directly today, I will work up an answer for next
weekend’s edition on why I preferred to value EGO on a EGO: Price/Book ratio 2021 to date
1.4
Price/Book reading, rather than this desk’s normal route of
1.2
cash flow for an operating miner (or a specific project). So
forgive me for the delay, ML, but today I’ll just run a ruler 1.0
over what’s changed on a P/Bv basis since last time we 0.8
looked, about a month ago when EGO was running a P/Bv 0.6
of 0.94X (in IKN823 it was down at 0.71X and I was 0.4
annoyed enough about the price to “make a stand” and 0.2
buy more).
0.0
11 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 WON
source: NYSE, EGO data, IKN calcs
Anyway, from IKN833 dated May 4th to this weekend the P/Bv has moved up further, from 0.94X to crack
the digit and get to 1.09X. That’s an improvement and in the direction predicted (of course), but there’s still
plenty of room to the upside when we consider its peer group.
Price/Book ratios of gold mining peers
Name Ticker P/Bv IKN833 P/Bv IKN838
Wesdome WDO.to 4.21 4.63
New Gold NGD 2.94 3.68
Agnico AEM 2.59 2.74
Kinross KGC 2.52 2.57
Newmont NEM 1.84 1.86
Pan American PAAS 1.81 2.15
Barrick GOLD 1.3 1.39
B2 Gold BTG 1.3 1.63
OceanaGold OGC.to 1.3 1.76
Eldorado EGO 0.94 1.09
source: NYSE/TSX, IKN calcs
Relatively speaking over the month, EGO has improved more than Wesdome, Agnico, Kinross, Newmont and
Barrick, while roughly matching the gains in Pan American. That said, others on the list have done better
than EGO, particularly close peers B2Gold and OceanaGold (and New Gold but that's not such a close like-4-
like). Overall on the month, EGO gets a passing grade without making it to the top of the class and that for
me says that it's still being overlooked as a top level gold trade option.
More next weekend, as after mulling over reader ML’s mail it turns out I have more to say than even I
expected.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-three weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a loss of -1.06% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 634.84 2.31 61.5%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 375.14 0.125 -3.8%
3 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 171.15 352.57 2.06 40.1%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 319.44 1.88 -1.1%
5 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 297.94 2.39 16.6%
6 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 286.41 1.78 7.9%
7 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 169.77 0.67 21.8%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 162.22 0.79 6.8%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 80.38 0.48 -30.4%
10 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 74.20 0.49 -26.9%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 124.181 69.54 0.56 -11.1%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 29.67 0.115 4.5%
13 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 172.61 22.44 0.13 -18.8%
14 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 74.78 14.58 0.195 -38.1%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 11.58 0.33 -45.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -1.06%
Another slight improvement for the overall basket average, another week in which the running total stays
stubbornly in the negative and also similar to IKN836
The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
two weekends ago (the rich get richer), most of the
10.0%
gains were in the higher market cappers, most of the 8.0%
6.0%
losses in the smaller stocks. There were eight week- 4.0%
over-week winners (ATX.v, ALDE.v, TMQ.to, REG.v, 2.0%
0.0%
FDY.to, BIG.v, AE.v, ECU.v), one unchanged stock -2.0%
-4.0%
(PM.cse) and six losers (SOLG.to, ASCU.to, HCH.v,
-6.0%
XXIX.v, KBX.cse, CGNT.v) and of all those, the only -8.0%
-10.0%
12 -12.0%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8
source: IKN calcs
double figure percentage movers were the 12.2% gain in Regulus Resources (REG.v) and the 10.8% loss
taken by the minnow Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse).
As for copper-the-metal, the Comex July 2025 contract shows just how bullish things were last week and
despite some late selling taking the edge off the week’s gains (in this madhouse, nobody should begrudge
others who take profits), there was all the hard evidence one required to back up our assertion in IKN837 last
weekend of “Plenty of signals from the copper pit to tell us that no matter how much Chin might complain,
they’re going to have to pay higher prices for copper soon.” So yes, pleased about that.
Meanwhile, our curated copper comment of the week notes how the trade wires have picked up on the
backwardation of copper, something else noted in the last couple of editions of The IKN Weekly, as reason
for near-term price support and here’s Reuters on Friday June 6th to prove it (5a):
Falling LME copper stocks inflate premium for nearby contracts
LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Concerns about the nearby supply of copper on the London Metal
Exchange (LME) due to falling stocks in LME-registered warehouses has created a premium for
nearby contracts against those with longer maturities.
In the same Reuters report we get to hear from the analyst we nominated for “I Want Your Job” award last
week, one Dan Smith of Commodity Market Analytics. Last week he gave us, "LME copper is facing a bit of a
squeeze as Comex stocks continue to rise and LME stocks are falling”, and while my three year old isn’t quite
ready for that level of insight just yet, I hope he gets there soon. I have no idea who Mr Smith is or whether
he might be best buds with the Reuters reporter, but he showed up as the rent-a-quote once again this week
with this gem:
"The backwardation indicates that there is some kind of a shortage. Because normally it is in contango," said Dan
Smith, managing director at Commodity Market Analytics.
Thank you Captain Obvious, two weeks running is impressive stuff. We move on to our regular look at moves
in the world of copper inventories:
World copper inventories saw a small aggregate drop last week, down 2,383 metric tonnes (mt) to
close at to close at 419,414mt, another week that saw all recent trends continue as per.
The Shanghai SHFE total gave us a fourth week at this new line in the sand, just above the 100kmt
line. See the dedicated chart below for the visual clues, here we note that SHFE added 1,613mt Cu
to its stocks and ended the week at 107,404mt. If 2025 continues to roll out as per a normal year,
this dataset should go back to sleep during the Northern summer months and become relevant
again post-Labor Day. We’ll see.
Another virtual copypaste week for the LME market notes, with a total of 16,075mt leaving its
warehouses of which 13,900 left Asia. The total is now 132,400mt and the march toward 100kmt is
on.
Finally, Comex continues its recent trend and added 5,674mt to reach 169,537mt, underscoring its
new position as the world’s dominant store of copper inventory. Never written those words before.
13
Our dedicated SHFE tracking chart shows that 2023 continues to be the model for this year.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for a couple of notes on some of the basket component stocks:
XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v): This company continues to have an issue in the way it lets slip its development
timelines and another example showed up this week when XXIX announced (6) its updated MRE for
Opemiska. But first the new resources and here’s the part of the table that matters most, the pit-constrained
resource on which any development decision gets made:
Which brings up the first problem. In the words of the company…
“The pit-constrained portion of the resource has increased by 12%, now captured within a shallower
and more compact pit shell. This highlights the Company’s commitment to delivering a high-quality
PEA in the near term. Notably, the inclusion of lower-grade stockwork mineralization has significantly
enhanced the overall resource profile, substantially reducing the anticipated strip ratio, and
broadened the development pathways for Opemiska.”
That’s fair enough and in passing, we note it still uses the same cut-off grade as before as the previous MRE,
but what they fail to mention is that the previous MRE gave a measured and indicated (M+I) resource for the
constrained in-pit resource of 87,333mt containing 1.478Bn lbs copper (plus the by-products) and an inferred
of 9.791mt for 1.94m lbs, giving a total copper content of 1.582Bn lbs. As you can see in the table above, not
only has the total copper count dropped, but over half the tonnes are back in the inferred category! That’s a
significant step backwards and while it won’t show when XXIX publishes its PEA later this year, they also tell
us that the Pre-Feas study is on schedule for 2026 and in that, they’re going to need to get as much of that
inferred number back into M+I in order to qualify it for the study.
Which brings us to the second issue, that of timing. When QC Copper re-branded and became XXIX last year,
we were told that the PEA would happen in the first half of 2025, i.e. now. However, the advent of the MRE
has also seen XXIX quietly shift its timeline and the PEA is now due “H2 2025”. If it were the first time a
development milestone had slipped at this company it wouldn’t be so bad, but this is yet another in a long
line of “oops we need more time” declarations from trhis team and what’s more, this time they’re not being
upfront about it, instead trying to sneak it in the back door. And when we consider that the new resource is
now over 50% inferred and the plan is to deliver a pre-feas study in 2026, I’ll take the under on next year’s
PFS arriving on time as well.
SolGold (SOLG.to): A significant development from the big copper company we’re now watching as a
potential turnaround play (7):
BISHOPSGATE, LONDON / June 2, 2025 / SolGold plc (LSE:SOLG)(TSX:SOLG) announces that it has applied
for a voluntary delisting of its ordinary shares from the Toronto Stock Exchange (the "TSX"). The delisting is
intended to be effective as of the close of trading on June 18, 2025. The ordinary shares in the Company will
continue to trade on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange (the "LSE") under the symbol "SOLG".
This is good news for us for three reasons:
We know that the Canadian rulebook now frowns upon critical metals deals with China and a de-
listing from the TSX can only help any deal with the most likely buyer of SOLG to consummate when
it finally happens.
Though SOLG bemoaned the lack of volume through its TSX ticker, the fact is that there are plenty of
shareholders in Canada and/or holding TSX-listed shares and while by no means impossible, as from
June 18th it will be a pain in the butt for any of those people to sell their positions if they decide to
liquidate. We’d therefore expect some near-term selling
pressure to develop in SOLG shares and sure enough, that’s
what we saw in last week’s market (chart right). There’s also
the implied exit of Bob Sangha from this story, which will
please BHP at least. Sangha promiosed much, but turned
out to be all hat no cattle.
We don’t own shares yet. Cue the cynical grin.
The way in which SOLG has started to position itself under the
new management team may not mean a quick rebound, but this
is akin to a supertanker navigating open waters and it needs a
wide turning circle as well as time. SOLG doesn’t have all its
ducks in line yet, but at this price it doesn’t need to be a perfect vehicle. What it does need, however, is a
change in market opinion toward the name and its project and that’s what the new team has to work on from
here. Be clear ladies and gents, nobody likes a turnaround story more than this desk and SOLG in 2025 is
now putting together the right ingredients, so even though I’d have to do so via its London listing (or
potentially the ASX, as SOLG is considering a listing there instead of Canada, I’m thinking seriously about re-
entering now.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): The news from ASCU last week was depressingly predictable (8):
TORONTO, ON – June 2, 2025 - Arizona Sonoran Copper Company Inc. (“Arizona Sonoran” or the “Company”)
(TSX:ASCU) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Scotiabank, as sole bookrunner,
on behalf of a syndicate of underwriters (collectively, the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Underwriters have
agreed to purchase, on a “bought deal” basis, 22,500,000 common shares (the “Common Shares”) of the
Company at a price of C$2.00 per Common Share (the “Issue Price”) for aggregate gross proceeds to the
Company of C$45 million (the “Offering”).
I’m going to come across like a dog with a bone on this subject, but we’re now 60m shares on from the
moment CEO George assured us that ASCU would not run any placement raisings. That was in August 2024
as documented in IKN802 dated September 29th 2024 when we ran the transcript of what CEO Ogilvie said
when asked directly about whether ASCU would run an equity financing at the time. He answered:
"Right now we have just over U$10m cash in the bank, so the treasury is extremely strong. We will have to raise
money I would suspect some time before the end of this calendar year, but with that, the market should not
expect an equity financing. The management team of this company brought in U$33m last year with the Nuton
option to JV, which was non-dilutive non-equity, and I can tell people on this call today that we have options on
the table for raising money that is non-dilutive, non-equity today. So do not expect we're coming to the market
with an equity raise at these extremely low share prices."
Oops. Those words made a September edition of The IKN Weekly, rather than August, as just days before
IKN802 ASCU had announced a $25m bought deal that was immediately upsized to $30m and eventually
closed raising gross proceeds of $34.5, plus
another $3.1m once Nuton had exercised its pre-
ASCU.v: Shares Out
emptive right to maintain its 24% interest in the
company. So, in 2024 and six weeks after assuring
the market ASCU wouldn’t dilute its stock, it did
just that. And here right is the shares out chart
brought up to date. Back in early 2021 when I was
first interested in this stock (and nearly bought
some shares, glad I didn’t) it was a 40m and 50m
shares out proposition. By the time 2023 turned
into 2024 that was up to nearly 110m shares but as
well as that, we’d seen a deal with Nuton/RTZ that
15
3.43 8.14 0.24 4.15
8.07 1.17
7.88 7.88 8.88
8.501 0.901 0.901 1.901 2.901 5.901 5.901
5.531
5.841
2.171
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
formed a JV and gave the buyer the option to buy into between 37.5% and 40% of the Cactus Project in
exchange for a U433m financing. At the time (8), that was framed as a “non-dilutive financing”, which caused
a wry smile to pass my face as there’s no such thing. What’s more, since the bought deal closed in 4q24
we’ve seen ASCU raise again, this time selling another C$21.6m worth of shares to strategic holders Nuton
and Hudbay. Add in this week’s news and ASCU is up to 171.15m (and up to 174.53m if the overallotment is
fully taken), that’s serious dilution for a company that would lose 40% of its mine to its partner if it turns out
to be economically compelling enough to build.
60 ASCU.v: Working Capital per qtr
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
16
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2 tse52q3 tse52q4 tse62q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
To its credit and in mitigation for last week’s news, $45m or so cashes up ASCU nicely and as the company
points out in the NR, “It is anticipated that the net proceeds from the Offering will fully fund the Company
through to a final investment decision at the Cactus Project.” Let’s go with the working capital chart (above)
to sketch that as, even with the accelerated cash burn we anticipate in FY25 and FY26 (guesstimating
$15/qtr, they have to drill baby drill to get to the stage where a build decision is made and capital raised)
they’re going to be good into next year once this cash is banked. However, North of 170m shares for 60% of
the project is a far cry from its position a couple of years ago and with the doubts around its metallurgy still
lingering, it’s hard to place confidence in this management team at this equity price.
Element 29 (ECU.v): NRs such as this (9) from ECU.v last week rarely moves markets but it’s the type of
news one requires from a serious junior, especially one working somewhere in the Andean Cordillera. Here’s
the top paragraph:
Vancouver, British Columbia – June 4, 2025 – Element 29 Resources Inc. (TSXV: ECU | OTCQB: EMTRF | BVL:
ECU) (“Element 29” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has signed a renewed five-year surface
access agreement with the host community at its flagship Elida Porphyry Copper-Molybdenum-Silver (“Cu-Mo-
Ag”) project (“Elida”) in central Perú.
That’s good and as the NR goes on to explain, this isn’t just an agreement to sit well with locals as it’s a
stipulation for what’s known as a “semi-detallada” drill permit in Peru, i.e. one that permits a large number of
pads in one go and allows a company the space and flexibility
to drill and fully develop its resource body in the way it wants.
In trading ECU didn’t run in the same way as some of the
flashier copper juniors out there, but that’s okay.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): Maybe the best plan of all is
to do nothing. Despite not drilling or having much to report to
the market, REG has run well in the last couple of weeks and if
it weren’t for that spike high in June last year, this weekend
would mark an ATH high for the stock. However, the move
was on low volume so take another look at that chart as a
reminder of how many times REG has tried and failed at these
prices.
Kobrea (KBX.cse): This stock was included in the 2025 Copper Basket rather than the TinyCaps list below
mainly because of the industry figures it had collected (Axemen Partners, Paul Johnson etc), but my base
interest is due to it being in Mendoza Argentina, a region that’s now coming around to the idea of mining
(Milei and all that). However, it’s also a CSE-listed stock with a loose looking share structure and seeing it sell
down sharply as shares become free trading isn’t much of a shock. Still keeping my eye on this and as an
outsider looking in, lower prices are better. Once the sellers heave done their liquidation thing, we’ll see.
The Producer Basket
After 23 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 53.68% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1127 59.01 52.36 40.7%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 58.75 117.97 50.8%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 34.65 19.82 27.9%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 32.12 167.21 42.2%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 4.82 3.67 50.4%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 4.33 21.13 42.1%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 3.80 4.80 93.5%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 3.39 6.56 64.8%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 2.73 9.19 64.7%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 2.15 14.34 59.7%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 53.68%
The comeback kid. I’m astounded how quickly the deficit we racked up in Q1 has turned around. Even
though only seven of our ten Producer Basket stocks had a week-over-week win (B, BTG, EGO, OGC.to, NGD,
SAND, WDOFF) and three were losers (NEM, AEM, FNV), it was enough to lerapfrog over the GDX 2025 YTD
performance and by some small miracle, we’re now doing better than our benchmark.
The reason for the comeback shows when we consider what type of stock rallied last, and by what amount.
We set out the 2025 list by aiming at the Tier 2 type producer, stocks with a relatively low market cap
compared to the sector giants such as NEM, AEM, B, FNV etc. Our line of thinking was that gold would have a
good year and that would trigger leveraged gains in stocks in the U$2Bn to U$5bn market cap range, a
strategy that fell flat on its face during Q1 as the money poured into the bigcaps and any production
weakness in the Tier 2 and midcaps was punished and yes, I’m still smarting from the way EGO was dumped
three times for what was basically the same piece of news during Q1, I hold that grudge, thanks for asking.
However, that dynamic has reversed in no small measure and along with it, the fortunes of our 2025 picks
have revived considerably. There’s an obvious lesson to
draw from the way in which our Producer Basket picks have
come from far behind the GDX to take back the lead and we
can sum it up in one word: Rotation. At the start of the
year, we saw money come in to the precious metals mining
sector from the top down, via GDX and the big name
brands (NEM, AEM, GOLD at the time, FNV, WPM etc) and
along the way, our Producer Basket with its slant toward
the more leveraged producers was taken to the woodshed.
We can see the dynamic in this comparative chart that
tracks the first two months of the year (bar one week) and
17
how gold improved by 10% but unusually, the more leveraged GDXJ was outdone by GDX.
However, business has returned to the usual recently, as
seen in this chart showing the last two months and using
the same squiggly lines. That’s what rotation looks like, with
early profits taken in the biggest stocks and profits re-
deployed into smaller stocks that then go about their catch-
up and turbocharge the winnings of those early to the sector
bull run (and good for them, I say). You may also note that
in this second chart, gold’s raise was similar to the first
period with a rise of just over 10%.
This change of appetite suits our 2025 strategy to a tee,
unlike the poor performance of Q1, which best shows in the
second of our tracking charts below right:
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60% comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
However, all this blahblah about my semi-serious annual competition against the mean and cruel world of
precious metals miners has real world significance and it’s not just personal navel-gazing. The message being
picked up by The Producer Basket and its vastly different performance versus GDX in Q1 compared to Q2 has
practical use for sector traders and investors:
If you want to underperform as the gold bull rolls on, stay in the biggest mining stocks.
If you want to stay behind the 8-ball, you should move into Tier 2 producers
And if we take this one step further and add risk, if you’re thinking about ways of out-performing
peers going forward it’s time to go overweight the juniors and hey…yes even the developers and
explorecos.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF): Any NR that has the company CFO as its main focus of attention is a
hiding to nothing, as 1) if it’s good CFO news the market will shrug, but 2) if its bad CFO news your company
can come under pressure, including the share price (10).
TORONTO, June 03, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (TSX: WDO, OTCQX: WDOFF)
(“Wesdome” or the “Company”) announces today that Fernando Ragone is leaving Wesdome effective
immediately and Raj Gill, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations will be assuming
the responsibilities of Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”) on an interim basis. An executive search firm has been
retained to conduct a search for a permanent CFO.
Anthea Bath, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated “On behalf of the Board and everyone at Wesdome, I
would like to express our sincere gratitude to Fernando and wish him all the best in his future endeavours.”
We don’t know much about the circumstances of Señor Ragone’s departure, but we do know he only joined
WDO just over a year ago and came from Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v), so presumably he was (relatively) new
CEO Bath’s personal pick and considering his previous gig, must have been very happy to scale up. His
replacement Raj Gill is qualified for the job (a CFA) and came in after Bath’s appointment, so presumably he’s
one of her inner circle. Still, losing a CFO in such quick order and not so long after filling all positions on the
board (including the chair) is not a good optic.
18
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
8%
ikn 6%
gdx control
4%
2%
0%
source: IKN calcs -2%
-4%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
Barrick Mining (B) (ABX.to): Though not as good as the gains registered in stocks in the U$2Bn to
U$10Bn market cap range, to its credit B was the best performer of the Tier 1 mines last week and that’s
probably because it avoided the expected adverse judgment on Loulo-Gounkoto again last week (11):
Mali hearing on Barrick's suspended Loulo-Gounkoto complex adjourned to June 12
BAMAKO, May 15 (Reuters) - A Malian court hearing scheduled for Thursday on whether to put Barrick Mining's
(ABX.TO) Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex under provisional administration has been postponed to May 22, the
president of the court said on Thursday. Barrick Mining, previously called Barrick Gold, and Mali's government
have been at odds since 2023 over the implementation of a new mining code that raises taxes and gives Mali's
government a greater share in the gold mines.
That makes not one but three postponements of this hearing and perhaps the most interesting, as it was
widely expected to happen this time. However it didn’t and that means B in the Malian courtrooms is racking
up a growing list of adjournments:
The first date for the decision on putting Loulo-Gounkoto into administration was May
15th: It was postponed to May 22nd
Then on the morning of May 22nd the case was postponed to June 5th
This time, a day before the June 5th date it was postponed to June 12th
Call me cynical if you must (!!), but it’s almost as if the people running the show don’t want to pull the
trigger. The reason behind the deferrals may have something to do with a line further down the Reuters
report:
Outside of court, negotiations between the two sides continue, according to two people close to the talks. Barrick
has also launched an international arbitration case against Mali over the dispute.
That would also explain why B out-performed NEM and AEM on the week. Or perhaps the market has finally
worked out who’s got the better of this deal (12):
Toronto – Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B)(TSX:ABX) announced today that it has completed the divestiture
of its 50% interest in the Donlin Gold Project in Alaska to affiliates of Paulson Advisers LLC and NOVAGOLD
Resources Inc. (NYSE American, TSX:NG) for $1 billion in cash.
Carried at U$251m as per end 2024, the sale not only gives B an immediate balance sheet boost but also
means it won’t be on the hook for 50% of what is bound to be one of the most expensive mines ever
proposed in North America (just the power supply would be eye-watering) while Barrick focuses its efforts on
Reko Diq and that copper-centric build-out. To round out the week in B-World, I couldn’t help but laugh a
little on reading this Northern Miner interview with CEO Bristow this week (13) and the words at the end of
the note:
“The one good thing about any business is luck,” Bristow said. “You can’t claim good luck as good
business, but you can benefit from it. The real screw up is when you have good luck as a business
and you can’t capitalize on it.”
Would that be good luck with the gold price, perhaps?
The TinyCaps List
After 23 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 6.64% to level stakes:
19
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 9.37 0.07 -58.8%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 13.41 0.095 -34.5%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 6.43 0.065 -50.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.3 29.97 0.17 17.2%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 37.58 0.495 26.9%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 121.915 17.07 0.14 75.0%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 268.9 63.19 0.235 80.8%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 11.82 0.11 29.4%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 15.00 0.285 -48.2%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 26.20 0.18 28.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 6.64%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer
reputations.
15.0% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
12.5%
After last weekend’s awakening, it’s a little disappointing
10.0%
not to see The TinyCaps List consolidate its gains. Instead 7.5%
it gave back roughly half of the percentage points added 5.0%
2.5%
due to a count of five losers (CN.v, EDG.v, MOG.v, RDU.v, 0.0%
STS.v), three winners (BRO.v, KDK.v, LMS.v) and two -2.5%
-5.0%
unchanged stocks (ELY.v, VAU.v). The biggest move of the -7.5%
ten came from South Star (STS.v down 28.8%) and the -10.0%
reason is in the notes, below.
South Star (STS.v): we’ve tracked this
graphite/transition metals/critical metals smallcap with a nascent operation in Brazil and a development
project in The USA for two and a half years and the news last week underscored what it has become: a
disappointment (14):
Vancouver, Canada, June 4, 2025 – South Star Battery Metals Corp. (“South Star” or the “Company”) (TSXV: STS)
(OTCQB: STSBF), is pleased to announce that it intends to complete a non-brokered private placement (the “Private
Placement”) of up to 9,090,909 units (the “Units”) at price of US$0.22 (C$0.3019) per Unit for gross proceeds of up to
US$2,000,000 (C$2,744,600). Each Unit will consist of one (1) common share (a “Common Share”) and one (1)
common share purchase warrant (a “Warrant”), with each Warrant entitling the holder to acquire one Common Share
at an exercise price of US$0.33 (C$0.4529) for a period of five (5) years following the date of issuance.
This smallcap promised mining operations by the end of 2023, then 2024, and now in 2025 with its first mine
finally opened it’s now raising more placement funds at a significant dilution (and a full warrant to boot) and
the C$0.30-and-bits ticket price of the deal guaranteed last week’s price slump. STS has had its chance and
won’t make the 2026 TinyCaps list, last week’s news was the final straw and there are better companies out
there to represent this sector.
Endurance Gold (EDG.v): After mentioning the new highs seen in
this stock last weekend, it’s only fair to repeat today with a ten-day
chart (right) to show that the new prices couldn’t hold. The dump on
Friday may turn out to be overselling, but by the same token there
20
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
weren’t many people stepping up to defend the price either (and it wouldn’t have taken much on those low
volumes).
Condor Resources (CN.v): While others climb to new highs,
CN hit a new 2-year low last week as some-or-other holder
dumped over half a million shares onto a thin market with
hilarious consequences. One of the “fun” aspects of tinycaps, it
only takes one medium-sized holder looking at a flatlining share
price and getting FOMO on not having their cash in one of the
hot plays to cause a dump like this.
Mogotes Metals (MOG.v): Last week we wrote this to close out our “You’ve done better than I expected,
guys” note on MOG:
It would not surprise in the least to see MOG capitalize on this new interest and run a top-up placement, as
while its approx $7m treasury is fairly decent that kind of cash doesn’t last long when you start drilling in the
high Andes.
Therefore, I may have got the decision to sit on the sidelines and watch MOG as it blasted higher wrong but
1) hey, at least it was on my radar and a pick for the 2025 TinyCaps List due to its potential 2) I got that call
right last weekend. Here’s the NR dated Monday, June 2nd (15):
June 2, 2025 – Toronto, Ontario – Mogotes Metals Inc. (TSXV: MOG, FSE:OY4, OTCQB: MOGMF) (“Mogotes”, or
the “Company”) is pleased to announce a non-brokered private placement through the issuance of up to
75,000,000 units (each, a “Unit”) at a price of $0.20 per Unit for aggregate gross proceeds of up to C$15,000,000
(the “Offering”).
Each Unit shall be comprised of one common share (each, a “Common Share”) and one-half of one Common
Share purchase warrant (each whole warrant, a “Warrant”). Each Warrant shall entitle the holder thereof to
acquire one Common Share at a price of $0.40 per Common Share for a period of two (2) years from the closing
of the Offering.
The gross proceeds from the sale of the Units will be used for funding the Company’s exploration work programs
and development of the Company’s Filo Sur property, and general working capital purposes.
The Company welcomes the participation of the prominent Argentina based Braun family, which, through an
associated entity, has subscribed for C$9,000,000 of the Offering, resulting in the family becoming a significant
shareholder on completion of the Offering. In connection with the strategic investment Mr. Carlos Braun will join
the board of directors of the Company.
I’m suitably impressed, as seeing the Braun family as a new strategic investor is a real feather in the cap of
this company. Los Braun made their money in grains trading and now they’re moving into mining in the same
way as several other Argentine entities and well-known business faces, so choosing MOG as their vehicle
means the sales pitch we’ve mentioned on a few occasions has worked even better than I expected. The
other obvious advantage is that Los Braun will the tightest of tight-hand holders and a likely source of further
funding down the line; these people do not look for a quick double, they’re in to swing at the fences and find
the next Filo. That said, we may now see the share price consolidate at this level for a while (a reminder of
one of my basic gripes, how MOG has run to over C$60m market cap and is still a long way from putting a
diamond drill into any of its targets), but I’m sure management wouldn’t mind that. If you were smarter than
me and bought some, well done and take a little profit.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
A new mining tax in Ecuador
Last week’s news that Ecuador’s government will levy a “Fiscalization Tax” tax on mining operations as from
July 1st came as something of a surprise to the sector, with the government stating that the new tax aims to
raise U$229m per year and thereby cover State costs in supervising the sector and the CAEM mining chamber
of commerce expressing worry that the amount the State wants is around three times what it needs and
would mean that some exploration stage companies would see their operating costs double. The new tax
21
applies to all mining companies in Ecuador except for legally registered artisanal mining operations and will
be levied on a sliding scale depending on size of operation (small, medium, large scale) and the stage of
development (exploration, development, operating mine).
Chile gives more environmental approvals
We’ve mentioned this angle about LatAm’s #1 mining jurisdiction on a couple of occasions recently, but ithe
way in which the Boric government has shifted from the ideology and ambivance toward industry (and
particularly mining) in its first years and is now pushing for all-the-growth-all-the-time bears repetition. Chile’s
SEA environment evaluation office, i.e. the place that slammed the anchors on no end of mining projects in
2022 and 2023, last week proudly announced that it had awarded environmental approval to 35 projects in
Chile in May 2025, with just one project (a photovoltaic park) refused its permits. Now for sure those 35
approvals cover all areas of economic activity and just five are connected to mining sphere, but that’s still
more than enough and the attitude toward economic growth in Boric’s last year in office could not be clearer
(16) (17).
Chile is the France of South America
It’s obviously only a stereotype rather than an all-encompassing judgment and we can argue whether it’s
deserved or not, but even non-Europeans get that France is the country the other Europeans most love to
hate (I don’t know enough about the US States or Canadian provinces to start opining on those), with a
repution of not being afraid to tell others about their superiority in a range of subjects. Well folks, Chile has
the same love-to-hate-them rep in South America and whether deserved or not, there come moments when
they don’t do themselves any favours about that stereotype. Take for example Joaquín Villarino,the president
of one of Chile’s most important mining chambers the “Consejo Minero de Chile”, who last week appeared on
a local podcast and duly informed his interviewers that Chile was watching the rise and rise of mining activity
in Argentina with interest, not because Chilean’s suddenly felt threatened by the new competition and feared
Argentina was about to eat its copper-laden lunch but because (translated):
“Argentines are not very good at mining. They’re going to need Chileans to cross over the Andes and
explain them how to do it.”
Hilarity ensued, and even though there’s more than a grain of truth in what he said, for one thing his
thoughts were delivered in as clumsy a way as you could ever imagine, for another Argentina seems to be
perfectly happy to import Canadian, Australian etc brains trusts to teach them the intricacies of the sector
and it’s up for debate how essential Chileans are for its future. On that subject, we’ve seen bigger players
exposed to Argentina’s growth story come out with opinions recently, such as head of Barrick in the Southern
Cone Marcelo Álvarez who noted that Argentina’s RIGI incentive scheme is good, but it won’t take anything
away from Chile’s mining sector until the Argentina national government improves its national infrastructure,
particularly energy and transport routes. Meanwhile Lundin Group head honcho Jack Lundin showed better
education and diplomacy by noting (18) in a recent round table discussion that the way forward would be the
“optimize resources in both countries and take advbantage of trans-Andean logistics”, a fancy way of saying
they’d like to ship water in from the Chilean coast for its Argentina mines and ship metal out via Chile’s roads
and ports.
Bolivia: Andrónico on the ballot and the Evo roadblocks
I know I said last week this series would take a break until we were close to the election in August, but ehre
we are again. Two loose ends to tie up, as on last Thursday the left wing frontrunner, Andrónico Rodríguez,
saw his candidacy approved by the Bolivian courts (to the relief of many). So after a couple of weeks of
doubt, the he will now move forward as the Left wing’s most likely defence against the handful of opposition
candidates vying to end the MAS rule of the last 20 years.
Next, the protests against the barring of Evo Morales from running for President have continued in Bolivia all
last week, with Friday reporting 33 significant roadblocks in strategic inter-provincial locations that are playing
hacvic with normal transport and supply lines. As a result, the government on Friday evening announced
charges against Evo Morales under insurrection charges and was seeking an arrest warrant for the ex-
President.
Third and final, these two somewhat disparate news event are connected as Andrónico Rodríguez made a
smart political move this weekend by calling on Morales directly to call on his supporters to suspend their
22
protest activities. The ratification of his candidacy allowed Andrónico the political space to act as peacemaker
and without saying it out loud, offer Evo a place in his political campaign and eventual government in
exchange for a return to calm and acceptance that he will not be allowed to run in this election. It’s a smart
move because it also gives Evo a way out of his legal mess, with charges against him of insurrection joining
the charges brought last year of underage sexual relations (with a girl who eventually gave birth to his son
and could not have be of legal age at the time). If Andrónico’s gambit toward Evo and his team works, it
would make his candidacy a clear favourite to make the most likely scenario, a second round against one of
the right wing opposition candidates.
Market Watching
Collective Mining (CNL.to) and the ownership of Apollo
Jungledrums are now swirling in Colombia around the Apollo project owned by Collective Mining (CNL.to)….or
perhaps not owned, as tenency dispute has started regarding at least parts of the property and we may see
some rather dirty laundry aired in public in the near future. I’m keeping this small heads-up as general as
possible (as well as a little cryptic) on purpose because if you’re long, I don’t want you rushing out and
selling on the strength of an odd rumour picked up by your author and relayed on a couple of lines at the
bottom of a niche mining publication (i.e. The IKN Weekly). Also and to be frank, the source of this gossip
isn’t someone I want to be associated with in any way, shape or form. However, they do have their ear to the
ground in Colombia and hear things before other people do (and I respect that at least) so if I were long
CNL, I would do myself the favour of getting some sort of official word from the company on any dispute, be
it actual or potential. I’d also ask around.
These rumours have reminded your author that our blanket “Avoid Colombia” call is the right one. Long may
it continue.
NGEx Resources (NGEX.to) flexing its muscles
Two weekends ago in IKN836 dated May 25th in the Market Watching note “NGEx Minerals (NGEX.to) cuts an
impressive hole”, we offered due applause and good vibes to the company’s latest discovery at Lunahuasi.
That week NGEX.to had moved up just over 20% to close at exactly C$15 and, while underscoring in the
conclusion paragraph it wasn’t a trade for The IKN Weekly (or for me) due to the absolute size of its market
cap, the script made it clear that NGEX still had plenty of potential upside. And sure enough…
…it’s added another 10% (minus 4c) in the last two weeks, with Friday’s close of C$16.46 another ATH. The
move last week was almost certainly helped by updated corporate literature, including a new presentation
(19) with slides running titles such as “NGEx is the last piece of the Vicuña puzzle” “The last way to attain
exploration leverage in the Vicuña district” and “Lunahuasi, an emerging giant”. It’s well worth your time to
download a copy and peruse its contents, we’d also recommend this link of (20) four minutes from NGEX
President/CEO Wojtek Wodzicki, including words such as these:
"Recent results published demonstrate that the Lunahausi system has size potential similar to the
other deposits in the Vicuña cluster, with the added advantage of also having very high-grade
copper-gold-silver structures which are unique to Lunahuasi.”
23
That’s as close to a Lundin guy saying “We’re going to do Filo again here, folks” as it gets and with drill
assays pending, expect more fireworks from NGEX.to going forward. The Lundin group of companies has
mastered the art of newsflow and maintaining market interest and momentum, we watched as Filo blasted
higher without ever stopping and, copper prices allowing, NGEX is now shaping as a repeat show.
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.to) has issue and copper bears should be nervous but shares look cheap
Last week we ran a commentary on the major operational problems at Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.to) Kakula
underground copper mine, part of the company’s Kamoa-Kakula complex in DRC, in the Copper Basket
segment as it may end up influencing the current supply/demand balance for copper on the world market.
Here’s part of the script from last week:
“…be clear that unlike other punctual supply bottleneck moments (e.g. a strike action in Chile that tends
to be cleared up before real deficits show), this Kamoa-Kakula snafu, its timing and its consequences fall
at a particularly delicate moment and has the potential to be “a thing”, an episode that can tip the
balance and affect the price of copper. That’s something this desk doesn’t say very often about disrupted
production from a single mine.”
Today’s follow-up is on the new information received and more about IVN the company, so ‘Market Watching’
is the place, but the technical issues that have caused underground instability and significant water inflow (a
fancy term for flooding) are still a potential disruption that can move copper’s price, particularly in the second
half of this year. What we now know from the company’s June 2nd update NR (21) that things aren’t worst
case and the company was keen to put its best foot forward in the NR, stating that “…underground mining is
expected to restart later this month on the western side of the mine, which remains dry and supported by
over 1,000 litres per second of operational pumping capacity.” However, the Eastern side is going to take
more time and the quick count, if we consider the amount of water entering the mine, the plan for pumping
and bringing in more pumping equipment, then a bit of math, we’re four months away from seeing Kakula
East back on line. And that’s in the optimistic scenario, as there’s a long checklidt of things that could go
wrong or delay the emergency plans as stated last Monday. IVN also stated it would provide another update
this coming week that lay out its “…plans for reopening the western side and the restart of the eastern side
of the Kakula Mine” and that’s fair enough, a mine of this size and import would make a serious mistake by
trying to slow-play information to market.
As for market reaction, this two-month comparative to the copper producer benchmark ETF COPX does the
job well enough. Down around 33% compared to peers since this snafu began, the market is taking a “bad
but not worst case” stance with IVN and understands that as long as the errors made UG can be corrected,
the copper is still there and fortunately, the corporate entity isn’t under significant debt pressure. However,
there’s clerly no rush to snap up a bargain and the hive mind understands that the situation is fluid and could
deteriorate. Even in the best of cases we can kiss IVN’s 2025 guidance goodbye and we’re unlikely to see
such ambitious production guidances in future years either, the bad and worst cases include repetition of the
seismic events, or eventual news that mine production was pushed too hard and to such an extent that it’s
done irreparable damage to its infrastructure (we understand host rock competence is not optimum at the
mine). We may even learn about eventual damage to the water table that affects local communities.
24
Bottom line: IVN stock is in “wait and see” mode and that’s probably an overreaction. This isn’t the size or
shape of company normally covered by The IKN Weekly and even after its drop from the C$20 prices of just a
few months ago, it’s still a C$15Bn market capper. However, the market’s reticence does seem a little
overcooked and if you’re equipped with enough risk tolerance, overall and on balance this C$111 is probably
a bargain for those who can suffer the near-term turbulence and want something copper to tuck away in
their long-term portfolio.
As for the effects on the copper market, that’s still more interesting to this desk and may turn out to be more
of a thing in 2025. It’s not just the loss or perhaps 30% of Kamoa-Kakula production for the rest of the year,
it’s how this copper is fed directly into Chinese smelter companies by the JV and any shortfall will have to
come from other sources, e.g. the official futures market. With the balance of copper inventories now
stacking up in North America due to the Trump Tariff fun, thoughts turn to the way metals prices spiked hard
and fast in early 2024 when Trafigura was caught short on
physical deliveries and had to scramble to secure metal. In
2024 that was in North America and the squeeze saw them
divert tonnages from Asia (specifically, re-routing
concentrate moving from South America to China), this time
the tables are turned and the potential physical squeeze
would centre on China/Asia. We’ll see how this plays out,
but the way in which copper suddenly ran last week to over
U$5.00 for several mid-range contracts may turn out to be a
mere hors d’oeuvre to the fun that’s on the way.
And yes, this means your author is long copper and staying
that way. Things are tight even if the above squeeze
scenario around the specifics of Kamoa-Kakula doesn’t play
out, if they do it could provide a trigger moment the market remembers for years to come. Long copper at
the moment is an easy call.
Conclusion
IKN838 is done, we close with some bullet points:
I try hard not to be mysterious about the way I manage my own portfolio and hope that you’re good
about my selling Aftermath (AAG.v) last week without the standard clear call. I’m also a little
sheepish about the way I’ve added a large dose of Monday to this edition, as even when an edition
gets delayed a day it’s supposed to reflect the weekend’s prices and events. But the news out of
Latin Metals (LMS.v) is impossible to ignore and the reason it was on our Watch List to begin,
therefore it’s time to move on the trade and open.
After continuing to track the company since selling the previous trade at a loss this time last year, I
need to be clear and point out how close I am to re-buying SolGold (SOLG.to) now. But this time it
will have to be via its London listing and we’re not moving until all the distressed selling from Canada
has been squeezed out. I like the way in which the new team is re-aligning the company and it’s now
becoming obvious that China wants to secure the asset at some point. The question is when and at
what price, but it will certainly be higher than this weekend’s 7p.
However and in general, I’m happy about the way the portfolio has responded in the last few weeks,
particularly Rio 2 Ltd, Gold Royalty and now Marimaca Copper.
And while I’m peppering the closing bullet points with first person singulars, I much prefer exposure
to copper than exposure to silver going forward. Yes, happy to see silver moving but the big money
and long-term future is in the red metal. I don’t often agree with Mark Bristow but on this I do, he
sees Barrick’s future becoming more copper-centric and that’s the right call as far as I’m concerned.
I know I’ll often end with “Avoid Colombia”. I really mean it.
25
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos
(MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-should-cut-interest-rate-by-full-point-trump-says-2025-06-06/
(2) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/06/schedule-for-week-of-june-8-2025.html
(3) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2025/minera-alamos-provide-update-on-development-plans-for-copperstone-mine/
(4) https://latin-metals.com/news-releases/latin-metals-secures-drill-permit-for-organullo-gold-project-salta-province-argentina/
(5) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/06/04/3093513/0/en/Marimaca-Copper-Announces-Proposed-US-17-7-Million-
Non-Brokered-Private-Placement.html
(5a) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/falling-lme-copper-stocks-inflate-premium-nearby-contracts-2025-06-06/
(6) https://xxix.ca/news/xxix-increases-opemiskas-copper-resource/
(7) https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/metals-and-mining/solgold-plc-announces-voluntary-delisting-from-toronto-stock-
exchange-1034349
(8) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-announces-c-45-million-bought-deal-public-offering-of-common-shares/
(9) https://e29copper.com/news/2025/element-29-resources-renews-5-year-surface-access-agreement-at-its-elida-project
(10) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2025/Wesdome-Provides-Senior-Management-
Update/default.aspx
(11) https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mali-hearing-barricks-suspended-loulo-gounkoto-complex-adjourned-june-12-2025-06-05/
(12) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-completes-sale-of-50-percent-interest-in-the-donlin-gold-
project/default.aspx
(13) https://www.northernminer.com/news/interview-barrick-ceo-talks-slimming-gold-portfolio/1003879223/
(14) https://www.southstarbatterymetals.com/ydihapto/2025/06/STS_06_2025_-PP_Clean.pdf
(15) https://mogotesmetals.com/mogotes-launches-c15m-private-placement-and-welcomes-argentine-strategic-investors/
(16) https://www.sea.gob.cl/noticias/durante-mayo-comisiones-de-evaluacion-ambiental-calificaron-35-proyectos-de-inversion
(17) https://www.mch.cl/negocios-industria/comisiones-de-evaluacion-ambiental-calificaron-35-proyectos-de-inversion-a-nivel-nacional-
en-mayo/
(18) https://mase.lmneuquen.com/mineria/los-argentinos-no-son-buenos-mineria-la-frase-que-destapo-el-interes-chileno-el-cobre-
n1194088
(19) https://wp-ngexminerals-2024.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/2025/06/Presentation-June-2025-v1.pdf
(20) https://x.com/ngex_minerals/status/1930663517860106554
(21) https://www.ivanhoemines.com/news-stories/news-release/kamoa-kakula-management-are-advancing-works-to-reopen-the-western-
side-of-kakula-mine/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
26
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
27
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
28
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
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Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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