6 The IKN Weekly, issue 837 — Jun 02, 2025
The IKN Weekly
Week 837, June 1st 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, US Jobs and Jerome jawbone, The continued wall of worry.
Fundamental Analysis: Minera Alamos (MAI.v) in 2025.
Stocks to Follow: i-80 Gold Corp (IAUX): Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), AbraSilver
(ABRA.to), Gold Royalty (GROY), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview.
The Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick Mining (B) (ABX.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Endurance Gold (EDG.v), Mogotes Metals (MOG.v), Electrum (ELY.v).
Regional Politics: On Mexico’s mining inertia, Bolivia: One eye on the election, Ecuador: More on the Loma
Larga false prior consultancy meeting, Argentina and the copper hype, The Panama Cobre re-opening
schedule continues as per expected.
Market Watching: Nothing.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
Today’s main event is the detailed update on our laggard Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and hate me
or not, but this thing is still the most obvious of strong buys in the entire junior mining universe.
Have to like the way the copper market is shaping up in 2025 and now, with a large mine that exports
its metal directly to China’s smelters offine and potentially missing its production targets in the medium
and long-term, things are that much tighter. Plenty of signals from the copper pit to tell us that no
matter how much Chin might complain, they’re going to have to pay higher prices for copper soon.
So far this year the TinyCaps List has been a bit of a snoozefest, but there are finally signs the tinycap
end of the market is beginning to wake up. Money seems to be rotating into the smallest companies at
last and via this section, we’ll be able to keep tabs on its progress.
The main Regional Politics note today is an overview of how things stand in Mexico’s mining politics
and the chances of progress showing on the uberslow permitting reform, as expected under the new
Sheinbaum government. There’s nothing concrete yet but as you’ll see, signs are good.
US Jobs and Jerome jawbone
Two dates for your financial diary this week:
1) The potential for Fed jawbone, for market interpretation of remarks and for more public friction
with President Trump (despite the two men having reportedly lunched together last week) when Fed
head Jay Powell speaks tomorrow Monday June 2nd lunchtime at the “Federal Reserve Board’s
International Finance Division 75th Anniversary Conference, Washington, D.C.”
2) All eyes will be on Friday’s US BLS Employment Report on Friday, after last Friday’s rather benign
PCE inflation reading and the growing pressure for the Fed to consider cutting rates (from both Wall St
and Trump World). As things stand this weekend (1) market consensus is for 130,000 non-farm payroll
jobs to be added and the headline the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%. We’ll see how
those estimates stack up against reality and if the results give the Fed more room to act.
1
The continued wall of worry
No big intro this weekend, instead a quick word to note how the prophets of doom continued to find room in
our world full or worry and fear last week. Let’s tick them off: Warren Buffett’s cash pile, Jamie Dimon’s
warning that fixed income “is going to crack”, the latest drop in US imports (down 18.6%) on tariff
repurcussons, rumours of Chinese military mobilization and with its eyes on the Taiwan prize, Putin’s nose out
of joint due to the Ukraine drone assaults, Macron’s warnings about nukes now being in play and all manner
of other dire warnings. And more, and more besides.
The broadstroke statement that “bears see further” is part of the market’s fabric, it also stands to reason as
experienced market participants tend to be able to extrapolate situations further into the future where there
be dragons awaiting us. It’s normal to hear from people worried about the future, but the same bears are
less aware of their own blind spot. For some reason, the future-observing bearish person is able to identify
some or other weakness, perhaps then act upon it (e.g. shorting something with a stretched valuation, or
going long a defensive position, or moving to cash) and once that’s done, will start to wonder out loud why
other people can’t see what they see in our immediate and dangerous future. As a result, bears can spot a
problem and then spend literally years warning other people, all while the market and those “stupid ignorant
bulls” ignore all warnings and ride the market higher and higher, climbing that wall of worry. There may
come a day when the bearish commentators and their warnings are proven right, but the opportunity cost of
missing out on the run between their first observation and the final denouement can be large indeed. And
that’s why we keep dancing until the music stops in this current market because, no matter how perceptive
and far-seeing you might consider yourself to be, part of this game is never to forget how much dumb money
there is, sloshing around you and waiting to be picked up.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) in 2025
It’s time to get up to date with our misfiring Top Pick, with this week bringing its 1q25 financials and enough
information in those filings to get a decent handle on today’s Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and what to expect from
the company this year, be that with or without significant progress on its Mexican growth projects. Our task
today includes:
A review of 2025 to date stock performance
A review of company financials
Santana production update and what to expect in coming quarters
Cerro de Oro and other Mexico projects
The Sabre Gold transaction and path forward for Copperstone
Discussion and conclusion
For the TL:DR among this audience, please don’t expect any change in your author’s position regarding
MAI.v, as come the end of today’s note it will still be a Top Pick stock and still carries a juicy looking price
target. We put MAI under close review at the end of last year, it passed that test and since then if something
had changed for the worse you would have heard about it already. Also, as usual I’m willing and able to take
your criticisms and brickbats for my continued sponsorship of this company* as I cannot help but see the
incredible deep value this stock offers at its current price deck; all it needs is movement on the permitting
front in Mexico and it will go a run that people tell their grandchildren about. If you want to ignore me, laugh
and me or even besmirch my name in public on the subject, feel free and have all the fun you want because
I know that I’m right on this subject. Darnit, I just know it. Finally before we dive in, today’s edition of The
IKN Weekly also runs “On Mexico’s mining inertia” in the Regional Politics section, in which we consider the
lay of the land in Mexican mining politics and consider the potential of seeing a real and clear end to that all-
important permitting bottleneck. That’s enough warm-up blahblah, let’s dive in.
*The IKN Weekly is not sponsored by mining companies, instead it sponsors them with its author’s own cash. Funny old world.
A review of 2025 to date stock performance
We begin with a quick re-cap of recent coverage and while there has (of course) been notes and
observations along the way, the two in-depth notes that matter came in IKN810 dated November 24th 2024
and then IKN820 dated February 2nd 2025:
2
In IKN810 we put put Minera Alamos “On Notice” after suffering for too long from its lack of movement.
That week saw us produce a laundry list of improvements the company would have to deliver on in order
to keep its Top Pick status.
In IKN820 and the note “Minera Alamos (MAI.v) leaving the penalty box” we reported on the progress of
the list and found MAI had met its targets, kept both its word and its timeline and had done enough to
retain Top Pick status. There were five or six stipulations, but the main ones were seeing clear
improvements in its financials, then closing the deal to merge with Sabre Gold. The latter at that time still
had a couple of weeks to run but all systems were clearly go, while in terms of its financial status and
improvement in production at Santana (the “Plan B”), that
was satisfactory.
That was nearly four months ago, more than enough time
for a major personal holding so the first job is to note how
the stock has traded. After its bright start to life and the
strong gains it achieved in the period 2019 to 2022, we
know MAI stagnated as an equity and returned a lacklustre
performance in 2023 and 2024, mainly due to the last two
years of the AMLO government’s freezing of permits for
(open pit) mining in Mexico. In that time MAI picked up a
reputation as an under-performing dog stock and it’s hard to
argue with that, but it’s notable that the bad rep has
continued into this year. Ask around today and you’ll be told
how it’s an avoid, it’s flatlining, there are better places to put your money and while the latter may be a
subjectively defendable opinion, this chart (above) shows that MAI’s reputation these days is mostly
undeserved. For sure it’s not great or out-performing the world and if you pushed me, I’d agree that “Market
Perform” isn’t what we aim for from a smallcap gold stock when we can get that from a range of larger and
more stable entities. The reason to own companies such as Minera Alamos is to beat the median and out-
perform squiggly lines such as GDXJ, not just match them, but by the same token a +40% performance in
2025 year-to-date isn’t bad and especially for a stock painted with an “it’s done nothing for years” epithet. So
summing up its 2025 price performance to date, it’s difficult to be too critical as in absolute terms MAI has
improved the state of my back pocket and, in relative terms to within a pinch, it’s kept up with its peers
despite being under a continued funk. In two words, not bad.
A review of company financials
That done, let’s catch up with the state of the corporate structure via our standard top box:
Shares out: 580.806m
Options: 25.373m
Warrants: zero
Fully diluted: 606.179m
Current share price: C$0.37
Market Cap: C$214.9m
Approx cash per S/O: 1.3c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated, forex CAD$1 = USD 0.72
Let’s start with the share count, which has popped with the successful completion of the Sabre Gold purchase
as per the terms of the deal to 577.42m as at end 1q25 and 580.81m as at this weekend. We don’t expect
the share count to expand much in the quarters to come, the only potential exception is a deal to fund
Copperstone that includes equity (though that’s far more likely to be debt-based, see below). With today’s
share price, that prices MAI at just under C$215m and
now we see what we get for that money. MAI.v: Shares Out
Starting with balance sheet items, we’ve seen assets
expand slightly as Sabre is incorporated, but as
Copperstone’s development costs were also mostly
expensed as Sabre did its thing there isn’t that much
difference to the overall look and feel of the MAI asset
carry.
3
2.644 84.844 32.944 86.754 88.164 88.164 88.164 88.164 88.264 88.264 89.264 7.074 30.994
24.775 18.085
185
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300 250
200
150
100
50
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2 tse52q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo snoillim
MAI.v: Assets
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Meanwhile over at liabilities, the big difference is the C$8.16m added via the stream that comes with
Copperstone. That’s going to stay in the LT column and won’t make much of a difference to the company as
a going concern, we’ll only see its effect once the mine starts producing and the total is gradually paid down
from deliveries. Aside that, the astute deal terms that extinguished cash debt at Sabre with the issuance of
shares means the MAI structure remains largely clean and there are only two line items that matter:
Accounts payable, now at C$6.44m. That’s up slightly, but nothing untoward and what you’d expect from
any junior, let alone one working on several fronts and with an operating mine.
The Auramet loan, now booked at C$6.44m (coincidence) and 100% on current liabilities these days. You
may worry about that coming due and on the strict math there’s a point, but in real terms this is a liability
that causes zero worries or issues to this desk. Auramet is a willing and good faith long-term partner and
even if the Cerro de Oro project is delayed even further, there’s no way the parties do not come to an
amicable solution to boot forward the debt and/or refi.
So onwards into the balance sheet and aside the share count, the thing that really matters at MAI is liquidity
and making sure it has enough cash to go about its normal business. As these charts show…
…cash is in good shape and working capital is hanging in there, too. Post quarter-end MAI paid down current
liabilities to the tune of nearly a million and the improvement in the Loonie/USD forex will help make the
numbers look better come end 2q25 (you can thank Mr Carney for that, feel free to decide if I’m being ironic
or not). Working cap also gets a boost from the increased inventories; here are a couple of charts on that:
4
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2
inventories MAI.v: Liabilities per qtr
$m f o ix th e e d r current 30
cash
25
20
15
10
5
0
source: company filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
MAI.v: Cash treasury per qtr
340.7 701.6 230.9
527.41 451.31
2.01 472.8 375.6
457.31 448.11
806.8 769.5
67.11
592.7 8
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12 10 8
6 4
2
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
MAI.v: Working Capital per qtr
654.51 805.71
562.22
482.81 198.91 816.02 866.91 869.91 942.81 184.41 115.5 115.51
582.9 11
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12 10 8
6 4
2
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
MAI.v: Santana on-pad Au Oz inventory, per qtr
0596 9865 6445 7336 4495 3835 8516 9918
62201 65911
MAI: Inventories
Oz Au
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000 6000
5000 4000 3000
2000
1000
0
4q221q23 2q23 3q234q23 1q242q24 3q24 4q241q25
source: company filings
694.5 337.6
780.9
96.7 320.6 647.5 495.5 782.6 78.5 295.5 331.6 268.6
878.8 82.01
14
12
10
8
6
4 2
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
C$m
supplies
work in prog.
leach pad ore
source: company filings
Inventory value (above right) is up to C$11.43m and most of that is on-pad ore, which has increased with the
calculated number of stacked ounces (above left), or in the words of the 1q25 MD&A. “…recoverable gold
inventory on the leach pad totaled 11,956 ounces an increase of 1,730 ounces of recoverable gold since
December 31, 2024 net of the gold produced and sold in the quarter.” Consider those oucnes to be cash flow
waiting to happen.
On the subject of sold gold, central to the “Plan B” strategy enacted by MAI in 2024 was to adapt around the
lack of pad permit amendment (part of the growth plan to bring Santana up to full speed), use the limited
space available on land permitted for production to stack ounces and start producing better numbers to bring
the company to a breakeven level, at least in mining operations and eventually at a corporate level. That
meant doing some heavy lifting, both literally on site and financially using cash reserves, but what we wanted
to see was a Santana that could produce at a limited, but profitable level as from 4q24. On this, MAI has
been as good as its word and in 4q24 produced/shipped 1,393oz gold, then in 1q25 1,014 oz gold, the best
numbers since mid-2023 (see the section on Santana, below). This chart (below) shows what has happened
to the basic mine economics and from making no money in the quarters 2q23 to 3q24, Santana is back
showing positive ca flhow with our “gross profit” number of C$2.023m in 4q24 and C$0.834m in 1q25. As
seen in this chart, we expect Santana to continue at roughly the same levels of production and with the
benefit of the higher gold prices, continue to produce enough cash to return a small but useful mine site
profit in the quarters to come.
MAI.v: Revs, COGS and Gross margin
5
80.3 744.3
763.0-
97.1
209.1
211.0-
667.1
473.3 806.1- 64.2 715.2
750.0-
994.1 33.1 961.0
0
634.0
634.0-
759.4
439.2
320.2
374.3
936.2 438.0
8.3
5.2 3.1 4 5.2 5.1
6
5
4 3 2
1
0
-1
-2
32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2 tse52q3
Revenues
COGS
C$m "gross profit"
source: MAI filings, IKN ests
Thie next chart is more comprehensive on the costs at MAI, though more difficult to read (so you get the
same data set with forward estimates below). The data here is somewhat confected by your author, as in this
period MAI has moved from being a exploreco/developer and started booking its revenues as an operator,
but by reverse engineering a couple of the line items results give useful straight-line comparisons. As you can
probably make out by tracking the grey columns (mine operating income), the last two quarters have seen
MAI shift from booking consistent losses (of between C$2.5m and C$5m) and becoming an “essentially
breakeven” operation. As that was the idea
MAI.v: financial results behind “Plan B”, there are no complaints
from this desk.
This next chart below shows the same
dataset, but focuses in on the last two years
and adds guesstimates for the next two
quarters. It’s also easier to interpret, as the
corporate strategy becomes clearer and we
on the outside can sum it up with “Let’s
produce a modest amount of gold at
Santana, enough to cover our expenses and
break even as an entity”. That’s why we’re
estimating gold sales to remain at around
1,000 oz per quarter going forward, enough to cover the C$4m or so it will need to keep treading water while
it gets its other assets and projects moving forward.
61.5 136.3
925.1
962.7
196.4
875.2
490.9
411.7
89.1 602.0
390.5
788.4-
487.6
458.5
39.0
80.3
726.5
645.2-
97.1
96.6
9.4-
667.1
651.6
93.4-
64.2
854.5
899.2-
994.1
169.3
264.2-
0
771.4
316.4-
759.4 229.3
530.1
374.3 222.4
947.0-
Revenues C$m total exp
10 mine op inc
8 6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6 source: company filings
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25
MAI.v: financial results
NB: Ex-Copperstone expenses in 1q25
6
667.1
651.6
93.4-
64.2
854.5
899.2-
994.1
169.3
264.2-
0
771.4
316.4-
759.4
229.3
530.1
374.3
222.4
947.0-
8.3
4
2.0-
4 4
0
C$m Revenues
total expenses
8 mine op inc
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
source: company filings. IKN ests
-6
4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25 2q25est 3q25est
We know corporate G&A is low, so as long as MAI can cover its expenses at its other projects it will remain a
breakeven entity in 2025. This chart (below right) on project expenditures shows that is likely to happen, as
aside from Copperstone and what the company might spend there in the first quarters of development the
burn at its other projects is likely to be low. The only big charges on this chart are the payments MAI had to
make as it optioned into Cerro de Oro and that
last one of those went through in 3q24 (now C$m Min prop & exploration expenses, per qtr
100% owned), so there will be no repeat this 3.0 Other
year. Meanwhile, MAI had to spend at Santana to 2.5 Los Verdes
La Fortuna
get “Plan B” up and running in 2024 but the last 2.0 CdO
Santana
two quarters show that burn is now over and it
1.5
can now move to harvest its efforts. The other
1.0
parts of MAI have maintenance-only expense
0.5
levels until further notice (e.g. when the
0.0
permitting track activates them) and overall, we
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24 1q25
can surmise that the cash generated by Santana in source: company filings
the quarters to some will be enough to keep MAI
ticking over. Not massive numbers of course, but it’s enough. And frankly, we’re not as keen as we are on
this C$200m+ market cap company only for the production at Santana, no matter whether 1,000 oz or 5,000
oz per quarter.
Finally, before summing up and moving to the next subject we must note the 1q25 financials include a
C$31.496m exploration expense, generated by the buyout of Sabre Gold. This means the official Mine
Operating Income result was a loss of C$34.884m, not the C$0.749m as seen in our tracking chart above and
while we’re at it, net losses were just over C$33m. It may be obvious to state, but that big hit is a one-time
charge and while it pushes the quarter numbers out it’s not an issue for our analysis, not on a standalone
basis (it’s the price paid for the deal to bring Copperstone in) and not for our comparative quarters.
Summing up MAI financials, if we leave aside that largely non-cash charge for the Sabre transaction and use
the data that gives us decent straight line comparatives for recent quarters, we see that within margins of
error MAI’s Plan B has done what it looked to accomplish. Corporate finances are back on an even keel and
while we’re not going to get an immediate expansion of production at Santana, we can expect the new stack
to deliver at least 1,000 oz gold per quarter and at this company, that’s enough to cover either most or all of
its expenses.
Santana production update and what to expect in coming quarters
That brings us neatly to production and sales at Santana, summed up by this chart:
MAI: Santana sales and forecast, per qtr
104 8512 9213 6324 0582 5762 1701 636 066 709 505
0
3931 4101 0001 0011
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500 2000 1500
1000
500
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 tse52q2 tse52q3
Oz Au
source: MAI data, IKN ests
On consulting MAI management this weekend on what to expect from the mine in the rest of 2025, listening
to their thoughts and reading between the lines, it’s clear the heavy lifting is done at Santana. They’re not
trying to squeeze every single ounce from the newly stacked ore as quickly as possible and the strategy going
forward is to steadily harvest the ounces now on pad, topping them up with limited earth moving and making
a decent margin on gold sold in order to cover the expenses in other corners of MAI. Due to that, our
previous estimates of increasing production as 2025 rolls out has been cut to what you see above and we’re
estimating the next few quarters that may see a little more gold produced, but the increases will be modest.
There’s no guesses yet for 2026, a lot depends on the permitting tracks and if Santan gets its pad
amendment document, it can quickly shift gears to become the 35,000 oz per year entity we expected from it
before AMLO funtime began. For the time being, we leave that in our back pocket and presume Santana runs
at a modest-but-profitable 1,000 to 1,200 ounces per quarter and keeps the MAI treasury in good shape.
Cerro de Oro and other Mexico
Firstly, we direct readers to today’s Regional Politics note below, “On Mexico’s mining inertia”, which notesd
the lack of official pronouncements on mining permits and the way forward for our sector in Sheinbaum’s
Mexico but also chews over the lists the backroom progress that’s undoubtedly been made, plus the timeline
as laid out by the government that includes an announcement this very month of June 2025 on the issue.
Please see below for more, but for our purposes here colour me as “cautiously optimistic”. Now for some real
data and this is what MAI gave us on its main development project in Mexico, Cerro de Oro, in its 4q24 and
YE MD&A:
At the Cerro de Oro gold project permitting process continues with the Company continuing to provide support for any follow-up
requests from the permit authorities. It is expected that increased visibility should become available in the coming months as to
the plans/timelines from the new government authorities in Mexico for issuing permits relating to mining activities. Engineering
work continues to progress for Cerro de Oro in order to advance pre-development activities to coincide with the ultimate receipt
of permits and a construction decision for the project. Included in 2025 will be further metallurgical optimization studies,
detailed engineering design and additional exploration drilling aimed at filling-n and potentially expanding the areas of known
gold mineralization (as outlined in Cerro de Oro Preliminary Economic Analysis (PEA) report dated October 3rd, 2022)
And here’s what they published last week in the 1q25 MD&A:
At the Cerro de Oro gold project permitting process continues with the Company continuing to provide support for any follow-up
requests from the permit authorities. It is expected that increased visibility should become available in the coming months as to
the plans/timelines from the new government authorities in Mexico for issuing permits relating to mining activities. Engineering
work continues to progress for Cerro de Oro in order to advance pre-development activities to coincide with the ultimate receipt
of permits and a construction decision for the project. Included in 2025 will be further metallurgical optimization studies,
detailed engineering design and additional exploration drilling aimed at in-filling and potentially expanding the areas of known
gold mineralization (as outlined in Cerro de Oro Preliminary Economic Analysis (PEA) report dated October 3rd, 2022).
Aside the corrected typo, exactly the same thing. That’s its own message, we’ve seen no progress on Cerro
de Oro’s permitting track in the first five months of the year. That’s also true for the Santana pad amendment
permit, the El Verde/Cobre 4H potential copper spin-out and anything from La Florida, though as noted above
the expenses occasioned in these projects are now at a minimum level. This isn’t great (of course), but we
also know that once Mexico gets its act together Cerro de Oro will be one of the first in line to start moving.
It has its economic and operational studies done, enjoys strong backing from local ejidos (community
landowners) and even has a funding deal in the back pocket. The permitting papers are in and MAI reports it
maintains constant contacts with its SEMARNAT representative, all it needs is one announcement and this
project, along with the stock price bakcing it up, will turn on a sixpence and fly. Set aside all the other
reasons to buy and hold MAI in 2025 if you like as just the Cerro de Oro case and it immediate reaction if
wholesale permitting re-starts in Mexico is enough to carry you through the risk of continued inertia.
The Sabre Gold transaction and path forward for Copperstone
We arrive at the final subject for today’s catch-up on Minera Alamos, its recently incorporated Copperstone
project, fruit of the deal to buy Sabre Gold. With Mexico still largely in a permitting holding pattern, the single
most obvious advantage to Copperstone this year is how the company will have something proactive and
useful to do now, even in the worst case scenario of a Cerro de Oro and Santana expansion that remain
without permits. As noted previously, the Copperstone project is right in MAI.v’s wheelhouse as well, the right
size to make a difference without being a massive, high capex project. The 1q25 MD&A has plenty on
Copperstone and while it’s no different from the literature and 43-101 technical report already known on the
project, it’s a worthy reminder of why this is a good deal. Here’s how MAI starts its presentation of
Copperstone in the 1q25 MD&A:
7
At the newly acquired Copperstone mine project, engineering work continues to be ramped up. This work
includes optimization of the underground mine restart plans/schedule along with the completion of basic
process plant design details that will be submitted as part of an amendment to the existing Plan of
Operations. Additional minor permit amendments will be submitted in parallel with all required permits to
support the planned restart of operations to be in place towards the end of 2025. In addition, final
preparations are being completed to transfer the existing used process plant equipment previously acquired
by the Company to the Copperstone site so that refurbishment activities can be initiated in advance of their
installation at site.
We know the build-out should be a reasonably rapid 14 months and we also know all major permits that will
allow Copperstone to be built and to go into production are already in-hand, the only thing that’s between
MAI and its second producing asset now is time and money. The latter will inform the former and with the
initial capex slated at U$36.2m…
…this isn’t a massive barrier for a company this size with the operational tracking record and experience it
brings to the table. As for exactly how the cash is raised, we cannot rule out any option but to quote directly
from the MD&A, “Management has been working with a number of groups to arrange debt financing and will
continue to evaluate all available options to raise the required initial capital”, which tells us that equity is
unlikely and the most obvious way forward is taking on debt, be that straight financial (e.g. Auramet or
similar again) or a gold loan or streaming deal.
The prize is a high grading underground operation (to begin with) that is slated to run atv 544 tpd and from
its known resource…
…is ready to produce for a little under 6 years at around 40,000 oz per year (though we remind readers of
the very high likelihood that the mine life is extended considerably as the years roll on) Capital costs break
down in this way…
…and while there may be some cost inflation to factor in, it shouldn’t be too onerous and MAI has aleady
indicated that its mothballed machinery, originally slated for use in La Fortuna, will fit nicely into the
Copperstone project and cut upfront costs considerably. As for project economics, we ran those back at the
announcement of the Sabre deal but since then we’ve seen gold skyrocket, so here’s an update on our model
8
for Copperstone along with a conservatively pitched valuation for this new arm of the company. This first
table assumes a calculated production of just under 40koz/year at various gold prices and on-site costs of
U$1,100/oz (likely much lower). We use U$3,000/oz as our benchmark gold price, if you think that’s too
conservative there are other options:
MAI.v at Copperstone: Model Year Revenues & Op Income (U$m)
Price Deck U$2.7k/oz Au U$3.0k/oz Au U$3.3k/oz Au U$3.5k/oz Au
Prod. Au (Oz) 39,483 39,483 39,483 39,483
U$/oz 2,700 3,000 3,300 3,500
gross gold revs 106.6 118.4 130.3 138.2
Total COGS 49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4
TC/RC+NSR 12.1 13.4 14.8 15.7
Gross Profit 45.1 55.6 66.1 73.1
Op. Income 43.1 53.6 64.1 71.1
Sources: MAI data, IKN calcs and estimates
From there, our condensed income statement ballparks the profitability at those gold price assumptions and
even with our conservative costs profile, Copperstone kicks off plenty of free cash flow at current gold prices,
the beauty of a high grade system:
MAI.v at Copperstone: Condensed Income statement model (U$m)
item U$2.7k/oz Au U$3.0k/oz Au U$3.3k/oz Au U$3.5k/oz Au
Sales (U$m) 95.9 106.6 117.3 124.4
COGS 43.4 43.4 43.4 43.4
Depreciation 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
SGA+R&D 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
NSR 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9
Op income 43.1 53.6 64.1 71.1
Interest 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Workers Part. 3.1 4.0 4.8 5.4
Tax 10.1 12.8 15.5 17.3
Shares out 581 581 581 581
EPS 0.045 0.057 0.068 0.076
FCF 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
Sources: MAI data, IKN calcs & estimates
As for a target price, we pitch low at a 4X multiple due to the early stage of development, but even so we are
left with a project that covers almost 80% of the current share price all on its own:
Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data for Copperstone ONLY
Year 2.7kAu 3.0kAu 3.3kAu 3.5kAu based on blended EPS target and U$3,000/oz gold
Sales (U$m) 96 107 117 124 12-month target C$0.29 based 4x EPS
Sales growth 11% 10% 6% at U$3,000/oz gold
EPS 0.045 0.057 0.068 0.076 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $215 Enterprise value $214
FCF 0.058 0.070 0.082 0.090 P/sales (2.7kAu) 2.02 EV/sales (2.7kAu) 2.01
P/E (2.7kAu) 8.3 EV/EBITDA (2.7kAu) 4.4
P/E (3.0kAu) 6.5 EV/EBITDA (3.0kAu) 3.6
P/E (3.3kAu) 5.4 EV/EBITDA (3.3kAu) 3.1
NB: THIS VALUATION IS FOR COPPERSTONE ONLY, THE ENTIRE MINERA ALAMOS VALUE IS THEREFORE
MUCH HIGHER THAN A MERE 29C
Again, if you prefer to use current spot prices for gold in your calculation, even by keeping the P/E ratio at a
miserly 4X the price target moves up to C$0.35, all but 2c of the current share price. After that you can brgin
to factor on what Santana, Cerro de Oro, La Fortuna and its other bits and pieces are worth as asseet value
and even if you don’t agree on my own numbers, ones that get MAI to a target price of 70c without breaking
sweat, you should get way over the current C$0.37 share price and see the value reasdy to be unlocked here.
9
Discussion and conclusion
We like the way Santana has met the target set by Plan B, we like that the Sabre Gold merger completed
without a hiccup, we even like the quietly optimistic vibes now coming from the halls of power in Mexico and
the likelihood of a breakthrough as regards mining permits in the neatr future. But as things stand today,
Copperstone and what it means to Minera Alamos in 2025 is the reason why we’ve seen the stock price rally
in the last couple of months. The market is finally giving the company credit for a clear path to meaningful
growth and along with Santana, MAI is set to have a vastly improved 2025 compared to last year even if the
Mexican government continues to drag its heels. Take out Cerro de Oro, the Santana expansion project and
La Fortuna completely and Minera Alamos (MAI.v) is still cheap at its current 37c share price, so all it needs is
one positive announcement from Sheinbaum and her government and this company will begin to realize its
true asset value, multiples higher than today’s share price. We can’t say MAI is out of the woods yet, but it’s
now financially stable and once it agrees on a method of financing Copperstone, it will have plenty to show
the world as 2025 become 2026. We reiterate our Top Pick rating on Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and the current
first target price of C$0.70. so those of you willing to put up with a potentially quiet period before the
fireworks begin have an excellent opportunity to but shares at these current levels, prices that would become
a memory quickly if the permits begind to flow in Mexico.
Stocks to Follow
Another good week for the Stocks to Follow list, with the headcount of three losers (ARG.to, IAUX, PGDC.v)
and three unchanged stocks (MIRL.cse, LMS.v, PAU.cse) versus thirteen winners looking good. There were
two double figure percentage winners among the bunch, namely Mene Inc (MENE.v up 16.0%) and
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v up 12.0%) but the real applause goes to our two Top Pick stocks, as they both
added over 8% and made me feel a little richer in monetary terms though in real terms, my wealth is infinite.
We currently have 19 names on our Stocks to Follow list, one fewer than our self-imposed maximum at any
given moment. Sixteen trades are in the green, three trades are in the red and they’re all near the bottom of
the table, too. That’s good as well.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.37 76.2% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$1.17 46.3% Fenix build and re-rate on
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$20.09 26.1% Added Feb'25, now going well
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.81 17.5% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.60 50.8% Quality Cu dev, FS due
AbraSilver ABRA.to STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$3.92 43.6% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$1.85 32.1% Cheap entry, turnaround story
Aftermath Silver AAG.v may sell $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.56 31.8% looking for exit point soon
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.15 87.5% Ecuador buyout trade
Lumina Gold LUM.v SELLING C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$1.25 60.3% cashing in, raising treasury
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.115 4.5% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v spec buy $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.115 9.5% bulk copper in good address
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.075 25.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Latin Metals LMS.v WATCH C$0.095 6-Apr-25 C$0.13 36.8% proj.generator, newsflow soon
i-80 Gold IAUX WATCH U$0.50825 23-Apr-25 U$0.5031 -1.0% Looking for entry point
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.055 175.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.205 141.2% Idaho gold drill play
10
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.145 -67.8% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
i-80 Gold Corp (IAUX): STILL WATCHING. I have no
idea why the NYSE ASE ticker IAUX is regularly being
marked to four and five significant figures, but it’s the way
it is and U$0.5031 was indeed its closing price this week.
That means it dropped 2.9% on the week, which in turn
means there was no sub-50c value on offer, the entry
point we still prefer.
At some point it will start becoming an exercise in splitting
hairs and if our forecast of a cheap buying window doesn’t
materialize, I’ll start building a position in this 50c to 55c
range.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): STILL LOOKING FOR AN EXIT. I may be guilty of seeing what I want to see
on this, but last week’s news and price action in AAG underscored the reasons why I’m looking to exit this
position and from here, it’s simply a question of
what price to take.
Our reasons for getting antsy on this are 1) a story
that’s changing (from silver to manganese), 2) an
upcoming period in which we can expect decent
newsflow from a series of drill hole assays set to be
reported and 3) price action that sees the stock rally
on good news but without pushing much higher and
then retracing. As this ten-day chart illustrates
(right), that’s basically what we saw last week,
when on Monday AAG reported (2) 16 of the recent
25 holes cut, with the star turns being the step-out
holes AFD129 and AFD130:
Hole AFD129 intercepted 12.35m* of 302g/t Ag, 0.66% Cu, and 10.64% Mn between 2.40m to 16.75m
downhole.
Hole AFD130 intercepted 35.55m* of 322g/t Ag, 0.58% Cu, and 6.88% Mn from surface to 42.25m, including
7.10m @ 1174g/t Ag, 0.80% Cu, and 11.14% Mn from 24.4m downhole.
Those ten ounce silver widths are good in any book, even without the live kicker metals (or if you’re to
believe AAG’s Williams, the future will be about Mn and using Ag as the kicker) and the strength of the
system is underscored by the high grade zone contained in the overall hit. Sure enough AAG rallied well on
the news and moved from last weekend’s 50c to 58c quickly, but that’s when the interest petered out and
while the Friday close of 56c gave us the best miningco performance of the week on our list, it was due to a
bit of tape painting Friday and 54c was easy enough to get that day (fwiw I was watching the tape quite
closely on Friday, first time for a while.
11
I came away from the week with my biases confirmed (for good or evil) and if the market decides to rally
next week and AAG reports the nine holes still in the lab, we could still get “something in the 60s” and if so,
I’ll probably take the price and book a modest win. However and by the same token, I’m not looking to take
any price and if the market sags next week and AAG returns to sub-50c numbers, I’ll much prefer to hold
through a while longer.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We do plenty on MAI in
today’s main fundies note, here we tune in on the price
action since IKN836 and leave it at that. I’d class last
week as a qualified success for the stock, as on the one
hand it rallied nicely and we also noted some enthusiastic
buying during the last hours of Wednesday, Thursday and
to a lesser extent Friday, on the other it’s still hasn’t
broken out of its long-term trading range and until it can
consolidate a 4-handle share price, momentum isn’t on its
side.
AbraSilver (ABRA.to): Another great week for our #1
silver pick, trading above C$4.00 for much of the time before profit-takers moved in on Friday (and who can
blame them?), taking the edge off the performance. Going well, don’t touch the controls, the C$5.74 target
would now be reached in a single bound if a buyout offer came in.
Gold Royalty (GROY): For a moment when it crossed the U$1.90 line on Thursday, GROY looked as though
it was ready to make a concerted breakout move and go back above the U$2.00 line (where it certainly
belongs these days), but this one also saw some profit taking on Friday and as a result, it only just managed
to remain in the green on the week. But that’s okay, as
seen here the entire royalty/streamer sector has enjoyed a
good couple of weeks, but GROY’s has been particularly
strong.
Meanwhile, the Franco-Nevada deal with IAMGOLD to buy
a 7.5% gross margin royalty on its Coté mine for
U$1.05Bn put the GROY 0.75% NSR into the best of
lights. True that one its 10X the other and true a gross
margin royalty is more valuable than an NSR, also true
that the GROY 0.75% only covers about a third of the
Coté property footprint. However, GROY got its deal for
less than 1.5% of the price FNV paid for its larger slice of
the pie and it’s already recouped around U$15m of that outlay. With the GROY Coté NSR likely to net GROY
upwards of U$1m per quarter once the mine is fully operational, this is the epitome of “good deal”.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): New ATHs hit last week again, the only thing to do here is sit back and watch. If it ain’t
broke don’t fix it, but please don’t confuse the brevity of this comment for disdain or disinterest, this is still
the single most obvious buy on the list and if you’re not long by now, it beats me why you’re reading this
weekly publication. Then again, it’s not too late because RIO.v shares haven’t even started their mina move
yet. Going higher still.
Orecap (OCI.v): A small update on the Kintavar purchase, as we hear KTR will remain under halt until the
current 43-101 report on the Roger property is updated. For that, the compilers need the results of sample
assays submitted to the labs several weeks ago and as they are late in reurning, the whole deal is on ice. It
shouldn’t take too long and at least we know the reason behind the extended halt now. Mwanwhile, OCI’s
neighbour at McGarry, Golden Candle, announced a new CEO last week and again showed plenty of
momentum, we await its IPO event as that is bound to cast more light on the bargain basement price
currently assumed for its neighbour. Finally in other news, Fortuna Silver’s decision to take a strategic
position in Awale (ARIC.v) saw that stock price jump markedly and even though the market’sfruitfly-level
memory span soon saw the stock fade, it’s a franking of the Odienné project and all it might offer.
12
The Copper Basket
After twenty-two weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 1.52% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 632.09 2.30 60.8%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 390.14 0.13 0.0%
3 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 148.409 310.17 2.09 42.2%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 307.54 1.81 -4.7%
5 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 265.52 2.13 3.9%
6 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 263.88 1.64 -0.6%
7 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 167.24 0.66 20.0%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 158.11 0.77 4.1%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 78.74 0.52 -22.4%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 77.03 0.46 -33.3%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 124.181 67.06 0.54 -14.3%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 32.25 0.125 13.6%
13 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 172.61 22.44 0.13 -18.8%
14 Copper Giant CGNT.v 0.315 74.78 15.33 0.205 -34.9%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 12.98 0.37 -38.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -1.52%
Another slight improvement for our 2025 Copper Basket
The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
on the week, another weekend in which the average 10.0%
8.0%
remains underwater. The five winners (ATX.v, FDY.to, 6.0%
BIG.v, HCH.v, ECU.v,) were enough to tip the balance 4.0%
2.0%
against the eight losers (SOLG.to, ALDE.v, TMQ.to, 0.0%
-2.0%
REG.v, AE.v, XXIX.v, KBX.cse, CGNT.v), mostly because
-4.0%
of the big gain in the only double figure percentage -6.0%
-8.0%
mover on our list, the 18.2% gain in Hot Chili (HCH.v). -10.0%
-12.0%
The breakeven result was a decent one if we consider
what happened to the Comex copper futures prices last
week, using the July contract as our baseline (right).
However, that sharp drop wasn’t nearly as bad at LME
and as that’s where the real price discovery happens, it
makes more sense. This weekend the arb between the
two is down to 7.8% and that’s healther than the 11.2%
we noted this time last weekend. As for copper price
driving events, the week was dominated by the news
out of DRC about Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.to) and for that,
we first tip our hat to a couple of price charts for the
stock (below) before getting to the point we want to
make, i.e. its potential effects on the world supply chain.
13
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj
source: IKN calcs
We know Kamoa-Kakula shipped its produce directly to China and we know that country’s smelters were
already willing to pay zero or even negative TC/RC to get their hands on concentrate, so a lot depends on the
next few days and what IVN/Zijin estimates as the hit the mine will take, both in monthly output terms and
length of time for repairs to be completed. Perhaps even the long-term guidance forecasts as well, but first
things first. This report (3) covers the bases:
The new uncertainty comes in a period of tight copper supplies. Despite President Donald Trump’s trade war
fueling concerns about global growth, the metal is being buoyed by resilient demand from No. 1 consumer
China.
Kamoa-Kakula has been one of mining’s great success stories in recent years. Discovered by billionaire
Robert Friedland, Ivanhoe’s chairman, and developed swiftly since Zijin invested in the project a decade
ago, it taps into one of the world’s richest copper seams and has helped make Congo the second-biggest
producer of the metal.
Now it faces its biggest challenge. Ivanhoe reported on May 20 that two days earlier it had temporarily
suspended operations at Kakula underground following seismic activity.
Its Chinese co-owner, Zijin, went further, saying there had been a roof collapse and full-year production was
likely to be impacted. Ivanhoe quickly disputed this account, saying there was no evidence of collapsing
stopes or structural pillars. It said the potential impact on output would only be determined once a full
investigation was completed.
But, within days, Ivanhoe withdrew its 2025 output guidance of 520,000 tons to 580,000 tons for Kamoa-
Kakula.
With only sparse information to go on, analysts have estimated that 84,000 to 275,000 tons of copper output
could be lost this year. That would potentially wipe out a sizable chunk of the 289,000 ton global surplus
forecast for this year by the International Copper Study Group.
“There is high uncertainty on the timing of a restart and the level of remediation or mine redesign which may
be needed,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note on Thursday.
So yes, be clear that unlike other punctual supply bottleneck moments (e.g. a strike action in Chile that tends
to be cleared up before real deficits show), this Kamoa-Kakula snafu, its timing and its consequences fall at a
particularly delicate moment and has the potential to be “a thing”, an episode that can tip the balance and
affect the price of copper. That’s something this desk doesn’t say very often about disrupted production from
a single mine. Meanwhile and semi-related, this week’s “I Want Your Job” award goes to Dan Smith,
managing director of Commodity Market Analytics, who via Reuters on Friday gave us this insight in to the
copper market (4):
"LME copper is facing a bit of a squeeze as Comex stocks continue to rise and LME stocks are falling.”
Thank you Dan, dat gotta be why they pays you da big bucks sir. On that note, we move to our coverage of
copper inventories beginning with the end-month long-term charts and sure enough, by starting with the
percentage breakdown tracking chart…
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
14
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj ram yam
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
…we see (just, over there on the right) that Comex has overtaken both SHFE and LME and currently has the
most stored copper of the three official systems (exact number below in the weekly roundup). This is only the
second time it’s happened, the only other occasion being for a single month back in November 2018. With
the warped market caused by the Trump tariff, we’re likely to see Comex spend an extended time at the top
of the inventory pile in 2025. The overall inventory count chart shows that Andy Home’s observation from a
couple of weeks ago, that the absolute amount of copper held by the three official systems hasn’t changed
much, the difference is its distribution, was astute.
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
15
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj ram yam
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME source: Cochilco
Finally, the bonus ball chart is Comex isolated (and shown since 2019), putting the recent spurt into
perspective. There were already rumblings in late 2024 and those moves were probably by the smartest end
of the metals world that saw what the advent of Trump might do, things took off in April and last month we
saw the deliveries out of LME Asia arrive en masse.
Comex copper stocks, 2019 to date
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj ram yam
mt Cu
source: Comex
That’s enough long-term comment, we now move the the weekly segment on copper inventory movements:
World copper inventories saw a small aggregate drop last week, down 2,383 metric tonnes (mt) to
close at to close at 419,414mt
The interesting one is again Shanghai’s SHFE, which seems to have found a temporary level at or
around thew 100kmt line. This week, additions of 7,120mt pushed stocks back up above the line to
close at 105,791mt and while that would seem to be against the grain, check out the dedicated
tracking chart below and note the growing similarity to what happened in 2023.
We could almost copypaste last week’s LME stocks comment in here, with the established trend of
shipping tonnes from Asia and seeing them land in The USA continued. LME stocks dropped by
14,850mt to close at 149,875mt and 14,675 of those copper tonnes came out of its Asian
warehouses. The march to the 100kmt line continues apace and with the news out of DRC to
consider, one wonders if a scramble may develop.
And with that, Comex becomes the system with the most copper under roof. The addition of
5,347mt puts its total at 163,748mt and as mentioned on several occasions already this year, we’re
likely to see that number keep on moving up.
The first of our dedicated SHFE tracking charts shows that this year is now tracking 2023 like a magnet.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
The second shows that while doing it early, stocks bottoming out at aournd 80k then bouncing to where we
are today is reasonably normal.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von ht62 ht02
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Put them together and we’re faced with a “tight-but-manageable” market for physical copper in Asia to date,
certainly biased toward the bullish side of the argument but we’re still a ways from the dystopian “stock out”
moments that the prophets of doom would have you believe. On the subject and to supplement the extra
data noted in the Cochiclo report last week regarding backwardation (which increased slightly on the week),
this chart (right) covers a separate aspect of the tight copper
market and notes a dataset we used to cover closely before letting
it drop. The ratio of LMe cancelled warrants to overall stocks was
occasionally useful, but its movements lagged price over time
rather than offering a lead indicator. However and as see in this
chart, cancelled warrants have remained at a constant level
compared to a declining LME stock total for quite a while and this
weekend make up just under 50% of total copper inventory.
That’s high and if taken at strict face value means half of LME’s
copper holdings are about to go out the door. It doesn’t work
quite like that (of course) but it does suggest there is constant
demand for physically copper since the arrival of Trump and his
tariff wheeze on the scene.
No notes on Basket component stocks this week, as aside from HCH.v move there wasn’t that much to get
excited about last week. Feel free to laugh at me for avoiding HCH, by the way.
The Producer Basket
After 22 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 47.30% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1127 59.42 52.72 41.6%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 58.76 117.99 50.9%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 33.49 19.16 23.6%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 32.43 168.80 43.5%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 4.43 3.37 38.1%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 4.12 20.09 35.1%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 3.52 4.45 79.4%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 3.11 6.11 53.5%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 2.62 8.84 58.4%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 2.00 13.36 48.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 47.30%
A week of small moves, but on the bright side eight of the modest changes were to the upside (AEM, B, FNV,
BTG, EGO, OGC.to, NGD, SAND) and just two to the downside (NEM, WDOFF). The biggest move in either
direction was the 3.5% put on by New Gold (NGD), to give context to the small moves overall. That said, we
did manage to do slightly better than the GDX benchmark (up 0.3% on the week) and that means another
small slice comes off our deficit, hope springs eternal and all that. So a quiet week for the bigger caps and for
once they take second stage behind the juniors and explorecos. Overall and considering gold dropped by 1%
(GLD proxy), it wasn’t a bad performance from the PM producer world.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
55% comparative to GDX control
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10% 5%
0%
Barrick Mining (B) (ABX.to): Up 0.3% on no news normally wouldn’t make for a comments section, but
this week we can look forward at Barrick’s date with a Malian courtroom, scheduled for tomorrow Monday
June 2nd and here’s Reuters with more (5):
Barrick Mining has asked the arbitration tribunal of the World Bank to intervene in legal proceedings
in Mali, as the miner faces the possibility of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine falling under the control of the
Mali government.
Barrick’s move comes as a local court in Mali is expected to rule on June 2 on the government’s
request to put the Canadian miner’s gold mine under a provisional administration.
If the Mali court ruling goes in favor of the government, an individual or an organization will be
assigned to take over the mine and reopen it. Barrick’s gold mine in Mali has been shut since January
this year after Mali seized 3 tons of gold from its mine over non-payment of taxes. Barrick has
disputed the allegations.
If you’re expecting a Kangaroo court ruling, we’re on the same page and while Barrick is bound to appeal to
all world authorities it can and publish a “it’s not fair” NR once the ruling is handed down, the most likely
course of proceedings is to see Mali ignoring international opinion and taking physical control of the mine,
possession and what it implies and all that. Chances are that most of this bad news is already baked into the
stocks price, but some of it won’t be and the optics will be poor.
The TinyCaps List
After 22 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 11.19% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 8.03 0.06 -64.7%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 14.82 0.105 -27.6%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 6.43 0.065 -50.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 176.3 37.02 0.21 44.8%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 32.65 0.43 10.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 12.54 0.13 62.5%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 268.9 69.91 0.26 100.0%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 12.35 0.115 35.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 21.06 0.40 -27.3%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 26.20 0.18 28.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 11.19%
17
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
9%
8%
ikn 7%
gdx control 6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
source: IKN calcs 1% 0%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
After weeks of almost no signal (and not much noise), The TinyCaps Basket finally woke up last week and
gave us a fine and positive performance, with six winners
(ELY.v, EDG.v, MOG.v, RDU.v, STS.v, VAU.v) beating out 15.0% TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
12.5%
two losers (BRO.v, KDK.v) with two unchanged stocks 10.0%
(CN.v, LMS.v) making up the numbers. The fun was to the 7.5%
5.0%
upside as well, with big moves from Mogotes (MOG.v up 2.5%
40.5%) and Electrum Discovery (ELY.v up 30.0%), ably 0.0%
-2.5%
assisted by Endurance Gold (EDG.v up 16.7%) as that stock
-5.0%
hit new 52 week highs. The net result shows in the weekly -7.5%
-10.0%
tracker chart (right), which has finally moved away from the
just-over-zero line of boredom and added nearly 10% on
the week. Good sport and more weeks like this one would
be welcome.
Endurance Gold (EDG.v): This stock has been a member of The TinyCap List for a year and a half now and
while it feels like half a lifetime ago these days, back in IKN763 dated December 31st 2023 when we
introduced the stock idea, it came on the reco of reader JH who called it, “An excellently run company with a
solid active project (amongst others they hold). Very tightly held”. As for my view at the time, I wrote that
“…its main Reliance project is exactly the type of gold project that may be out of fashion at the moment, but
if the market decides it’s time to revalue economic gold deposits in low risk jurisdictions it could run fast and
far.” Cut to May 2025 and after several quarters of inertia, that might finally be happening:
EDG did put in a bit of a flourish at this time last year, only to retrace and return to its seemingly default level
of 13c to 15c so there’s that risk to consider, but the way it’s run in April and particularly May and on real
news of the 7,000m drill program now underway (8) gives reason to think this one will stick this time. The
2025 plans are aimed at providing a maiden resource (MRE) for the open pit part of Reliance later this year,
presumably after that we get a PEA in 2026.
You don’t have to be the bee’s knees in this precious metals bull market, sometimes it’s enough tto have the
word “gold” in your corporate title, have a good address and be on the cusp of an official resource. Today’s
C$37m market cap (U$27m approx) is not knock-down cherap but it is cheap if it can offer the world a
coherent gold resource of the size that gets funding in BC mining.
18
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Mogotes Metals (MOG.v): I’ve voiced my concern about the aggressive MOG marketing and the way it has
made sure of riding the coattails of its “near neighbour” Vicuña district (LUN, BHP et al), pushing hard despite
being at least a season away from being ready to drill its projects and offer solid evidence of economic
mineralization. Not to mention the way its project area is on the “wrong” side of the provincial border and in
La Rioja, rather than the famously pro-mining San Juan province. However, my concern looks stupid now:
Last week MOG stock momentum went from good to great and had already impressed me before opening on
Friday morning and trading as high at 33c on one occasion, before settling back and trading briskly in the
high 20s and closing the week up a cool 40% at 26c. This happens to minnows sometimes, with sheer
momentum and a lack of liquidity starting a mini feeding frenzy that can push a stock up for no other reason.
However, we should applaud MOG for banging hard at a message that is clearly resonating with the investor
(or speculator) public: “Why not try to be on the ground floor of the next Filo?” is powerful catnip.
So much for my skepticism and I wish the company the best of luck. It would not surprise in the least to see
MOG capitalize on this new interest and run a top-up placement, as while its approx $7m treasury is fairly
decent that kind of cash doesn’t last long when you start drilling in the high Andes (see the ALDE or even the
NGEX burn rate for more on that subject).
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): Another thing tinycpas sometimes
do is go up sharply just because they’ve gone down a lot and there’s
no more down to do. ELY isn’t in the same desperate position as
Barksdale (BRO.v) as mentioned last weekend in IKN836, this stock
isn’t displaying the “it’s broken” symptoms of a story gone wrong,
instead it’s still in early development days and has lost the
speculators who were looking for a quick win at the turn of the year.
Last week ELY decided to start moving back up and as the chart
(right) shows, it was on bitty volume that’s more about seller
exhaustion than a sudden dose of optimism.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
On Mexico’s mining inertia
To accompany the note on our Top Pick stock Minera Alamos (MAI.v) in today’s main fundies section, here’s
an overview of what we know and where we stand on the Sheinbaum government stance on mining, the
permitting big picture in Mexico and what to expect as 2025 rolls out.
First up, a couple of things were clearly established last year and since then they haven’t changed:
The Sheinbaum view of mining is friendlier than that of her predecessor, AMLO.
19
However, her government is still going to get fussy on allowing mining projects to go ahead and
concessions awarded, there will be stricter requirements and local approval will be a new core
principle.
Next, despite the government saying nicer things, there hasn’t been a great deal of progress in real terms
and the grumbling and moaning from companies and backers (e.g. me and you) continues. Some progress
yes, but the impression of reform at a snail’s pace is difficult to deny.
However, we do know “they’re working on it” however slow the results might take to appear. Back at PDAC in
March, we heard (6) government representative Fernando Aboitiz tell his audience that "By June, we will
have regulations that clarify the rules and provide more certainty. We're working on this together with the
chamber [of mining, Camimex]." And June starts today, so we may get some some of official government
pronouncement as early as tomorrow Monday, though I’d wager more on a date closer to the end of this
month than the beginning (or even July). There’s plenty at stake too, as the Sheinbaum government is all
about its five year plan to get Mexico growing economically. According to the Secretary of the Economy
(Mexico’s finance mininstry), in 2023 FDI in metals mining totaled U$2.109Bn but that figure dropped to just
U$364m in 2024 as the permit cycle finally caught up to the AMLO government and no more money went
into previously permitted projects (7). The 2024 FDI total was the lowest since 2006 and being the same time
as the well-documented hike in metals prices, it’s given the pro-mining lobby in Mexico plenty of ammunition
in their attempts to debottleneck the permitting track for new projects. While on the subject, we note the
pro-mining sector of Mexico includes such obvious entities as the Camimex chamber of commerce and plenty
of opposition politicos, but we remind readers that many of the pro-mining regions of the country have
governors, senators and parliament representatives from Sheinbaum’s own ruling MORENA party and they’re
pro-mining for their own political sakes as well).
Which brings us to the most recent developments and according to people at the centre of the permitting
issues for mining, things are indeed getting better. For example Rubén del Pozo, president of the mining
workers’ association AIMMGM, noted a couple of months ago that the country had awarded 27 permits to
mining operations in the country since Sheinbaum had come to power and while some of those are likely to
be minor continuation permits and almost automatic in nature, we know the list includes the major
amendment awarded to Alamos Gold (AGI) to green light its Puerta del Aire growth project at its Mulatos
mine (8). In his comments at the time, Señor del Pozo told reporters (9):
"For our part… it can be said that very, very recently we have already obtained some permits for
environmental impact statements, modifications to previously granted permits for [their] extension,
specifically, for environmental impact statements, and in the case of land use changes, we have also obtained
new… and modifications to land use change deadlines. We have even managed to obtain surface area
modifications,"
More recently, BN Americas interviewed one Joel González, senior partner at law firm ALN Abogados which
“…specializes in mining law and has served the industry for 20 years. During that time, it has worked with
clients ranging from small or junior firms to transnational companies with significant regional operations”,
who put the permit award number at 40. Here’s what González told BN Americas (10):
"…now that the change of administration is underway, with Dr Sheinbaum, we are beginning to see a
policy of openness, understanding and dialogue with the industry to understand what the needs are
and why there was this stance of definitively and categorically saying no to permits."
"There have even been meetings and follow-ups with the mining chamber [Camimex] and the
Canadian Chamber of Commerce, through its mining committee. They have done an extraordinary
job maintaining this dialogue since the Sheinbaum administration. We have indeed seen a very
positive change in openness to dialogue, in following up on these procedures that had been stalled
for so long.”
Bottom line: Putting all that together and drawing a conclusion, I cannot help but annoy you all by being
optimistic about the developments in Mexico. Even though there hasn’t been much of a change at results
level for most large scale formal miners looking to get their projects green lighted and newsflow on law
changes undeniably slow, the people quoted above aren’t just blowing hot air and with a trickle of permits
already awarded, things look substantially better than they were under the ideologically blinkered AMLO. With
20
Mexico’s government all about its five year growth plans and delivering on GDP and wealth projections, as
well as a President who said on many occasions during 2024 that mining will be more strictly controlled but
will be permitted (even open pit mining) as long as the projects get approval at grass roots local level, this
slow and annoying process is more a matter of time than a matter of doubt.
Bolivia: One eye on the election
I don’t want to make this a weekly thing because the Bolivia Presidential election doesn’t get serious until
August, but one more quick update to add to last weekend’s note is required today. Two things, then the
latest from today Sunday:
1) We mentioned the potential problems faced by the left wing frontrunner, Andrónico Rodríguez
, to get on the ballot last week but we also opined that they looked largely technical in nature and he
could probably sort them out. In fact thigns got slightly worse for him last week when a Bolivian court
ruled his party was inadmissible for the election. Señor Rodríguez now has three options available,
namely 1) appeal the ruling and get it overturned by a higher court 2) find another party willing to accept
him as their candidate 3) stand down. The most likely at this point is 2) and I’d expect him to make the
ballot still, but a cloud of doubt remains over his candidacy and that’s not great at official campaigning
begins.
2) The protests by Evo Morales supporters against their leaders barring in the election started and ran all
last week, coming to a head on Friday when 20 of his supporters were arrested after violent clashes with
the forces of law and order. The pro-Evo camp has vowed to keep up the pressure and is threatening
both the Arce government and the members of Bolivia’s Supreme Court with continued disruptive actions
(marches, roadblocks etc) and say they will either get Evo on the ballot or “the election won’t happen”.
We’ll see how this one rolls out, but volaitility is the word of the week in La Paz.
Finally, today Sunday has brought the first voter intention poll from an officially sanctioned pollster (one of
only two in Bolivia). It’s also very early in the process and getting an accurate reading on a country as
culturally and geographically dispersed as Bolivia is difficult even at the best of times, so take these numbers
with a large dose of salt. According to pollster UNITEL today, we have the following voter intention numbers
for the main players in the August Presidential election (see this report for the full list (11)):
Samuel Doria Medina: 19.1%
Tuto Quiroga: 18.4%
Andrónico Rodríguez: 14.2%
Manfred Reyes Villa: 7.9%
Eduardo del Castillo: 2.3%
As Medina, Quiroga and Reyes Villa are right wing opposition candidates and Roríguez and del Castillo left
wing officialist candidates, early indications suggest Bolivia is indeed at least entertaining the idea of a right
wing, non-MAS President for the fist time in 20 years. That’s about as far as anyone can push poll analysis at
this early stage, but it does underscore the reasons why this desk is so interested in this election in 2025.
Ecuador: More on the Loma Larga false prior consultancy meeting
A welcome rarity in Ecuador is found on this link (12), namely good journalism in a mainstream media
channel. The weekend the national newspaper Primicias
published (translated) “Was There or Was There Not Prior
Consultancy in Loma Larga? The Keys To Understand the
Conflict In the Mining Project”, a long Spanish language
report (use Google Translate if necessary) that takes the
casual reader from near-ignorance to a clear
understanding of the farcical meeting run by Dundee
(DPM.to)/Ecuador’s Mining Ministry in January, the
meeting on which we reported at the time in IKN818
“Ecuador: Be selective” and IKN819 “Ecuador: Mining
company trickery”. Importantly, it looks carefully at both
sides of the argument and considers evidence presented
by the pro-mining side (a combo of the CAEM chamber of
mining, the Ministry and DPM) and the anti-mining side
21
(the locals in the Cuenca district of Azuay). It also examines the letter of the law and relevant court rulings
on what “Prior Consultancy” is to determine whether the meeting held in January is valid. It’s a strong piece
of journalism and is highly recommended for anyone interested in the issue (which may now include
shareholders of Adriatic Metals Plc wondering whether DPM is a good corporate citizen). It’s not possible to
sum up the work in a couple of short phrases and you really need to read it all, but this visual aid from the
report is a worthy offering (above). You will observe that 1) the “Comunidad Escaleras” where the false prior
consultancy meeting took place is over 15km from the location of the Loma Larga project and anyone with
knowledge of the rural zones of the Andes are set up will know that may as well be 500km (we touched on
this angle in IKN819). Even the casual observer should ask why DPM/MINEM Ecuador went to such lengths
and chose a remote and small village to run its only meeting in front of just 100 people, instead of doing so
with the thousands locals who would be directly affected by the mine.
Argentina and the copper hype
Anyone who’s experienced the country and its inhabitants will know there’s little in the way of nuanced
middle ground when it comes to predicting Argentina’s future, it’s either world leading magnificence or
unavoidable disaster in the near future. As the country’s great and good are currently in optimistic mode,
when it comes to mining and specifically copper anything that gets said by experts is immediately blown up
under the lens of hype and duly presented to the world. Case in point, last week’s business seminar
“Argentina 2025: Scenarios for capital markets and the real economy” ("Argentina 2025: Escenarios para el
mercado de capitales y la economía real") held in Buenos Aires by one of the local banks (VALO) in which one
of the round table panels included Martín Pérez de Solay, CEO de Glencore Argentina. When asked for an
opinion on what copper might mean for the country going forward, he replied (13) (quote translated) “It’s
not crazy to think that the country may produce a million tonnes of copper per year by 2035, that would
imply an export value of U$10Bn.” He went on to explain that his million tonnes number comes from “…the
mid-point of the seven or eight biggest projects that are on the table today." In other words, an educated
guess that’s highly dependent on a range of factors, not least prompt and punctual permitting and the ability
to raise the multi-multi billions in upfront capital required for those projects. Within the day, that offhand
comment produced business media headlines such as (14) “The Fever of the Future: Argentina will produce a
million tonnes of copper by 2035” or if you prefer, “Argentina forecasts production of a million tonnes of
copper by 2025 to lead the energy transition” (15). No matter that Chile (just for one) will produce between
five and six times that amount of copper (with no need for hopeful guesswork on timelines), apparently it’s
Argentina that will lead the way into the clean and green future.
The latest round of copper hype in Argentina is, of course, a good thing for those companies exposed to the
country and looking for the metal. The list is long these days, too, from the very biggest world miners (BHP,
RTZ) to midcaps and developers (MUX, shout out to ALDE) to the smallest size of exploreco (Mogote,
Sendero etc). They’d be smart to ride the wave of interest while it lasts, we’d be smart to pay attention as
well.
The Panama Cobre re-opening schedule continues as per expected
The last time we mentioned in any great length the ongoing fun around First Quantum’s (FM.to) Panama
Cobre mine in the eponymous country was IKN826 dated March 16th, though there have been a couple of
brief updates since then. In IKN826 we repeated our roadmap as a likely outcome first seen in in IKN781,
dated May 5th 2024 that revolved around the newly elected President José Raúl Mulino and his likely moves:
Mulino assumes office.
The new assembly is more anti-mining than the new President
Both get a honeymoon period, nothing happens this year
The new President is lobbied by FM and eventually opens the debate on mining, first
by allowing the 120,000mt or so of copper concentrate still stored on site at Cobre
Panama to be exported. This breaks the port blockade.
President Mulino points to the severe financial penalty Panama would suffer if it lost
the ICSID/CIADI international tribunal, then attempts to bring parliament around to a
negotiated settlement with FM.
All this will take some time, of course.
We’ve seen this play out and last week, another piece of the jigsaw fell into place and here’s mining dot com
(16) to tell us about it:
22
Panama has approved First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX: FM) maintenance plan for the
shuttered Cobre Panama copper mine, clarifying that this does not signal a restart of
operations.
Since we last tuned in FM has formally dropped its international arbitration case, the two sides are now
talking, FM.to recently presented a care & maintenance plan to the government and last week, the
government gave it the green light. The deal involves allowing FM to reprocess and then sell and ship out the
concentrate still on site and that means they get to re-open the company’s dedicated port facility, a big step
forward and one that protesters will have to swallow. From here, we now await the environmental review
which according to the government will take “between three and six months”, at which point the two sides
will be able to sit down again and talk about the real endgame, that of a mine re-start.
Raúl Mulino is banking hard on the environmental review, as he needs to find a way to make the re-start
politically acceptable at a time when his approval ratings have been slipping fast (for several reasons, mostly
unconnected with mining). We saw some low-ish level protests against the mine re-opening a few weeks ago,
nothing on the scale of 2023 but enough to remind Mulino that there will be a political price to pay. Our
scenario assumes the enviro review finds no red flags to stop a re-opening and FM gets to run its mine again
but as noted in IKN781 it truly is taking some time.
Market Watching
Nothing
Sorry. Lazy.
Conclusion
IKN837 is done, we close with some bullet points:
If there’s only one thing to take away from this week’s edition, it’s that you should own some Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). The Mexican political angle will continue to cause doubt in polite society and see the
stock price marked down, right up to the moment it doesn’t. When that day arrives, you’ll be very
glad you were on board at sub-40c prices and applied the required patience.
But be clear, even without permits for its Mexican assets MAI today is sorely undervalued.
Copperstone is going to be funded soon and is going to be a mine and with just that operation and
the current modest profits generated by Santana’s Plan B, this stock is a buy. All the permit relief can
be considered gravy if you like, even if you’re not as confident as this desk is about Mexico’s mining
sector being allowed to move forward again soon.
I haven’t forgotten about the company I planned to analyse last weekend, but Minera Alamos is
simply more important. You might not think so but I have plenty of my net worth in that stock and as
it’s my newsletter, you get to suffer.
As for the metals, copper now looks in a sweet spot.
Avoid Colombia, David. And the rest of you, for that matter.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos
(MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/schedule-for-week-of-june-1-2025.html
(2) https://aftermathsilver.com/news-releases/aftermath-silver-reports-high-grade-silver-intercepts-step-out-returns-1-174g-t-silver-over-
7.1m/
(3) https://www.mining.com/web/flooded-mine-in-congo-is-latest-threat-to-global-copper-supply/#google_vignette
(4) https://www.americaeconomia.com/en/node/291560
23
(5) https://www.mining.com/web/barrick-asks-world-bank-court-to-intervene-in-mali-proceedings/
(6) https://www.bnamericas.com/en/features/mexicos-legal-framework-for-mining-to-be-clarified-by-mid-year
(7) https://www.bnamericas.com/en/features/mexicos-legal-framework-for-mining-to-be-clarified-by-mid-year
(8) https://www.bnamericas.com/es/analisis/mineria-en-mexico-se-mantendria-estancada-pese-a-altos-precios-de-los-metales
(9) https://www.bnamericas.com/en/features/sheinbaums-openness-to-dialogue-helps-expedite-mining-permits
(10) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/01/29/3017019/0/en/Alamos-Gold-Announces-Receipt-of-Environmental-
Permit-Amendment-Allowing-for-the-Start-of-Construction-on-the-Puerto-Del-Aire-Project-in-Mexico.html
(11) https://www.opinion.com.bo/articulo/pais/2500-encuestas/20250601212434973588.html
(12) https://www.primicias.ec/economia/consulta-previa-loma-larga-comunidad-escaleras-claves-proyecto-minero-oposicion-azuay-
97376/
(13) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/argentina/para-el-ceo-local-de-glencore-argentina-es-la-respuesta-a-la-demanda-
global-de-cobre/
(14) https://eleconomista.com.ar/finanzas/la-fiebre-futuro-argentina-va-producir-millon-toneladas-cobre-2035-n85168
(15) https://www.serperuano.com/2025/05/argentina-proyecta-producir-un-millon-de-toneladas-de-cobre-a-2035-para-liderar-la-
transicion-energetica/
(16) https://www.mining.com/panama-backs-first-quantums-copper-mine-maintenance-plan/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
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Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
25
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
26
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
27