IKN #831Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 831, April 20th 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, On knitting and sticking.
Fundamental Analysis: Lumina Gold (LUM.v): Just buy some.
Stocks to Follow: Lumina Gold (LUM.v), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), Salazar
Resources (SRL.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v), Gold Royalty Corp (GROY), AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to),
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), The copper stocks Part Deux (MARI.to) (ARG.to) (SURG.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v),
Minera Alamos (MAI.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L), Libero Copper
(LBC.v), Hercules Metals (BIG.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Sandstorm (SAND), Barrick (GOLD).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Barksdale Resources (BRO.v), Condor Resources (CN.v), Viva Gold
(VAU.v), Electrum Discovery (EDY.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina: The clamp is off, Wrapping up the Ecuador election result, Colombia:
President Petro’s attitude toward mining.
Market Watching: The Ecuador mining stocks rally, Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) delivers its 4q24 financials,
Aclara Resources and lawfare (ARA.to).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 The plan for this week’s main Fundies note was to puts some numbers behind last weekend’s decision
to buy Lumina Gold (LUM.v), but to my own surprise it became all-but impossible to write. Instead of
putting together a financial model for an eventual mine at Cangrejos in Ecuador, an exercise done by
this desk a hundred times before on a hundred different mine projects, LUM.v at Cangrejos has such a
wide variety of potential outcomes that, when considered in light of the way the gold price is moving,
makes a mine model almost comical After wrestling with the model all week, the only honest thing to
do was to write what I wrote. But no matter, this is as obvious a buy as there is in the gold space.
 On the subject of Ecuador, there’s plenty about that country running through today’s edition with
thoughts on the politics in light of Noboa’s win in Regional Politics, a sketch of ways to play the newly
bullish political backdrop in Market Watching, then company-specific thoughts in the Fundies section
(LUM.v), Stocks to Follow (SRL.v, LUM.v) and the Copper Basket (SOLG), companies exposed
 Also in The Copper Basket, we tip our hat to the possibility that copper has some downside in its near-
term future (thanks Obama), laugh at the sophists at Libero (again) and wonder why way Aldebaran
Resources (ALDE.v) (and Regulus (REG.v), for that matter) treats its shareholders so annoying.
On knitting and sticking
Monday saw this brief mail arrive from darned good egg, long-time subscriber/reader “A” (so long in fact I
can’t remember not exchanging with him):
Hi Mark,
Bit surprised you didn't mention the significant selling of US Treasuries, probably by China,
bumping their yield up to 4.5 or something in one week. This was probably a major factor in Trump
pausing the tariffs. A lot of implications there.
Best, ___
1

My reply was even briefer:
I apologize.
To his credit “A” rose above my cynical tone and replied, short and sweet:
No need. There's a lot going on, it's a total sh__storm.
Not first time I’ve reflected on how I don’t deserve my readership. He’s also absolutely right in his final
observation, there is indeed a lot going on and the results are often more pungent than a simple rainstorm.
So yes, he’s right that the potential (or perhaps new reality) of China dumping US Treasuries could be one of
the central issues facing our increasingly fragile world macro financial scenario in 2025, after all there are an
estimated U$2Tn (with a T) apparently in the hands of Xi and if President Trump wants to rattle Xi’s cage, it
would be a fairly straightforward way of devaluing the US Dollar and offsetting some of the extra cost of
importing into China’s biggest retail market in our new tariff-strewn world. However, it’s not what The IKN
Weekly is about. For sure conjectures are there and suppositions can be made, but in the end it’s only
another layer of guesswork about how the Trump Tariff world will pan out. It’s not the brief of this
publication to delve deeply into world macro matters, for one thing because a lot of other places and
commentators do it far better than I can, for another because we simply don’t need to follow the bonds
market, or the US Dollar, or any of the other macro indicators to know that things are way out of kilter.
We can do that by following indicators that we do follow on a regular basis:
Mentioned in passing last weekend, not only has the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) shot over 100X in recent days
but it’s stayed there. The last time this happened was 2020 and the Covid Crisis, when uncertainty ran amok
with the world financial system and saw Fed to enact the mother of all puts to stop the financial system from
grinding to an illiquid halt. Back then everyone rushed to gold (and out of silver) because recession was seen
as nigh and the dollar was no longer a safe place to hide, now in 2025….well, it’s the same vibe on the
streets. Gold isn’t shooting higher and higher because the scales have fallen from the eyes of a thousand
high-ranking academic economists who have suddenly realized that Von Mises was right and the Austrian
school of economics is the future. Or because fund managers like the idea of buying zero coupon assets.
Quite the opposite, gold is moving up and up again because something is very wrong and people are rightly
afraid, or as we put it in the intro to IKN821 “Keep Dancing Part Deux”, “…systemic weakness showing in
other parts of the world financial system”. That’s what gold is about and when it rises without seeing any of
its normal dance partners join in, it’s not just first time buyers of gold that should be concerned. We too,
long-term proponents of holding gold as the safest financial insurance policy of them all, we too should be
concerned. So yes, I absolutely agree with reader A and his view of how Trump blinked when the bonds
market flashed its danger signal and because of that, I’d also opine that anyone thinking the Trump admin’s
heavy tariff policy is set in stone and the world economy is now set on an irreversible course toward
deflation, crisis and a market crash should think twice. Gold’s current stellar run is not over yet, but we know
how it started (fear) and therefore we know how it will end. The moment Trump is faced with real financial
crisis, his pragmatic businessman’s nature will take over from his desire to tariff the world.
2

We need to continue to hold gold, we must Keep Dancing until the music stops. However, it makes sense to
be prepared for the moment the DJ (initials DJT) lifts the needle from the vinyl as this run in gold will not last
forever.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Lumina Gold (LUM.v): Just buy some
In IKN821 dated February 9th, the main fundamental Analysis section was “An overview of Lumina Gold
(LUM.v)”, which introduced the company and stock to these pages on a formal basis, came before adding it
to the Watch List and then , as from last weekend, an open position on the main Recommended list of Stocks
to Follow. Although presented as an overview, the IKN821 analysis went on for 10 pages and went into all
the main corners and crannies of the company and its story at the asset that matters, its Cangrejos gold
project in Southern Ecuador. As such, after framing the general economics of the project the report stopped
short of running the numbers or generating a financial model and target price for the stock. Here are a few
words from the closing remarks of the report, that day:
“Come the day we pull the trigger and buy shares we’re bound to go into more detail about project economics
and offer the model in greater detail, but today’s ballpark is enough to show just how impressive LUM is at
current prices.”
The intention for today’s main fundies report, in light of our new purchase, was therefore to make good on
that pledge. With the buy decision dependent on the Noboa victory and that main piece in place the trigger
was easy to pull, it was left to me to clean up the model and do standard number work, put together a
reasonable ballpark financial model and offer a price target. Nothing this desk hadn’t done on dozens of other
occasions, however and to my surprise it’s turned out to be a highly frustrating exercise. But rather than
ignore the issue (or leave today’s main fundies section blank), it’s only right to explain why.
First we catch up and adjust the main structure box for LUM:
Shares out: 422.587m
Options: 25.49m
Warrants: zero
RSUs: 3.5m
Fully diluted: 451.577m
Current share price: C$0.90
Market Cap: C$380.33m (U$266.23m)
Approx cash per S/O: 1.2c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.70=CAD$1
Back in IKN821 LUM had a share price of C$0.55 and a market cap of C$232.42m (US162.7m as estimated
that day). As you can see, that’s changed significantly and while some of the price rise is due to the growth
of interest in the stock in February and March as gold rose, the big trigger was when the clouds lifted on the
Ecuador mining scene last weekend and Daniel Noboa won his election, defeating a rival who had gone
openly anti-mining and removing threats of national-level bottlenecks to the industry, moratoriums on
concessions, permits etc etc. These ten-day charts, one of the stock and another of LUM versus GDXJ, show
what an addition of C$150m in market cap looks like in trading terms.
3

The rally had begun even before the election and LUM got its boost from the general bull run for gold
equities, but last week saw the stock spread its wings. Due to that, the plan was to run the model but as
much as I might have wanted to, getting a reasonable ballpark on its financial potential has been nigh-on
impossible. There are three big reasons:
 The gold price: The speed of the move in gold makes estimating a stock target based on a future gold
price almost ridiculous. For sure the standard practice of pitching a low baseline number makes sense,
but when there’s U$500/oz difference between your baseline and the spot price (and who-knows-what
difference tomorrow), the range of the potential revenue miss makes the model a bit of a waste of time.
 The capex: We know LUM at Cangrejos is set to publish its Feasibility Study in the current quarter (2q25)
and after that, expects to have all permits in place by early 2026 and green light the mine construction.
However, we don’t know how much. Our assumption that initial capex would rise from the 2023 PFS
estimate of U$925m to something around U$1.2Bn is probably close, the increase due to the industry-
wide costs elevation we've seen since the 43-101 was published. However our total capex bill estimate of
just over U$2.5Bn, up from the PFS estimate of just under U$2Bn, may be out as our previous model
forgot that the FS will change the build plan. In the PFs, the plan was to build Cangrejos out in three
stages, whereas these days LUM expects the build to only have two stages before reaching its full
capacity.
 The capital raise: With 422m shares out and a market cap of U$266m, LUM is a relatively small corporate
entity trying to raise at least 5X its current market value just to get its initial mine built. We know
U$252m will come from the Wheaton (WPM) stream already in place, but that leaves around a billion to
raise and it’s anyone’s guess how they put that package together. Pure equity? Pure debt? A blend of the
two? Convertibles? Another royalty stream deal? Perhaps selling the copper production forward? And with
the size of the numbers in-play, trying to nail down a model that offers up a reasonable price target has
been a little like trying to nail jelly (jello) to a wall.
What has become apparent this week is that the financial parameters laid out in IKN821 give a better idea of
the potential of this company and its share price than my standard modeling methods, as seen for example in
these charts from the previous analysis:
LUM: Annual top line revenues and operating margin at
350,000oz/year gold production and different gold prices
4
4.387
4.334
0.997
0.944
7.418
7.464
4.038
4.084
0.648
0.694
0.258
0.205
5.768
5.715
0.388
0.335
4.898
4.845
9.319
9.365
4.929
4.975
U$m
1000 gross revs
op margin
800
600
400
200
0
2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900 2950 3000
source: LUM data, IKN calcs Gold price
Please see IKN821 for the full narrative, but we took into account the Wheaton Stream, the government
royalty, assumed average annual production of 350,000 oz gold instead of the expected 371,000 oz, then
brush-stroked an AISC assumption of U$1,000/oz for operations compared to the U$641/oz in the PFS. Even
after all those lowball and conservative inputs, Cangrejos is slated to make around half a billion dollars
annually at gold prices U$500/oz lower than current
spot. Operating EPS at three sample share counts
1.60
With that done, we then have to make a wild guess 1.40 1.30
1.16
as to how many shares exist once the company is at 1.20
0.99
steady state. In IKN821 we used this presentation 1.00 0.87
(below) and offered three examples of 500m s/o, 0.80 0.58 0.65
1Bn s/o and 1.5Bn s/o. When combined with the 0.60 0.43 0.50
0.40
above operating model and different gold prices, the 0.39 0.43
0.20 0.29 0.33
range of annual operating EPS targets is so wide as
0.00
to make any focused model irrelevant.
0002 0012 0022 0032 0042 0052 0062 0072 0082 0092 0003 0013 0023 0033 0043 0053
op EPS
500m S/O
1Bn S/O
1.5Bn S/O
gold price

I cannot say to this audience “I think LUM’s mine will make the company something between 29c and U$1.30
per year”, it’s a waste of time. What we can do, however, is point to the lowest targets on that chart and say
“even if gold goes back to U$2,500/oz and the company sells another billion shares in order to finance its
mine, this company will make U$0.29 per year (CAD$0.40) for its projected 14 year mine life, which
compares to its 90c share price this weekend”.
And that is why, frustrated though I am about the lack of progress made on my LUM model this week, I still
decided to feature it in this week’s main fundies section. Because what I can say is that I don’t know what
this stock is worth yet, but it’s obviously worth a lot more than U$266m now that we’re less than a year from
the start of the build of a project that’s accepted by locals, approved by the new government and is bound to
raise the necessary capex one way or another. Even if margins drop significantly from the theoretical profit it
could generate at today’s gold prices, Lumina Gold (LUM.v) at Cangrejos is going to make heaps of money
per share and whether it builds the mine itself or the company is bought by an established operator as its
next big gold mine, C$0.90 will be left for dust as soon as people realize the amount of equity available.
So forget about my personal trials and tribulations, don’t worry about my lack of a formal model or buy target
price and just buy some of these shares. A no-brainer and given a good FS result in the weeks ahead, this
stock is likely to become a house Top Pick.
Stocks to Follow
Of the 20 open positions in last week’s list, ten were week-over-week winners (EGO, MARI.to, GROY, SRL.v,
PGZ.v, SURG.v, LUM.v, PGDC.v, PAU.cse, MENE.v), there were four unchanged stocks (MAI.v, RIO.v, OCI.v,
MIRL.cse) that unusually included both Top Picks, then six losers (ARG.to, ABRA.to, AAG.v, RPX.v, IPT.v
LMS.v) which include all three of the silver stocks as the Jeykll & Hyde metal did its thing. There were four
double figure percentage moves and I’m happy to report they were all in the right direction, with Patagonia
Gold (PGDC.v up 28.6%), Lumina Gold (LUM.v up 26.8%), Salazar Resources (SRL.v up 23.5) and Surge
Copper (SURG.v up 10.5%) all doing well on the week. Biggest loser was Aftermath Silver (AAG.v down
9.1%) and so be it.
With the sale of the two losing trades PGZ and IPT we’re down to 18 open positions on our Stocks to Follow
list, two under our self-imposed maximum. Of those, 15 are in the green, one is UNCH, two are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.36 71.4% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.90 12.5% Fenix build and re-rate on
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$19.80 24.3% Added Feb'25, now going well
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.69 9.7% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.45 45.9% Quality Cu dev, FS due
AbraSilver ABRA.to STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$3.00 9.9% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$1.63 16.4% Cheap entry, still great price
Aftermath Silver AAG.v spec buy $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.50 17.6% #2 silver trade
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.105 31.3% Ecuador buyout trade
Lumina Gold LUM.v BUY C$0.78 23-Feb-25 C$0.90 15.4% New gold trade, top value
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.125 13.6% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v spec buy $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.105 0.0% bulk copper in good address
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.075 25.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
5

Latin Metals LMS.v WATCH C$0.095 6-Apr-25 C$0.12 26.3% proj.generator, newsflow soon
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.045 125.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.245 188.2% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.14 -68.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
IMPACT Silver IPT.v Apr'25 C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% closed small Ag trade fail
Pan Global Res PGZ.v Apr'25 C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% closed sm Cu on -ve mkt turn
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Lumina Gold (LUM.v): POSITION OPENED. As laid out in IKN830 last weekend, LUM is no longer in the
Watch List and no longer marked at a 63c start price. Instead, I’m now an owner and even though I paid
10% above last weekend’s close price first thing Monday morning, I did so without a moment’s hesitation
because it was crystal clear what was happening to any stock touched by Ecuador’s election news. And sure
enough, getting in early got close to the best price offered all week, LUM was red hot and the combo of 1)
near-term development story in 2) gold mining, the flavour of the month and 3) in a newly de-risked country
jurisdiction saw LUM fly fast. There’s more on LUM in today’s main fundies section above, here we note one
small curiosity and move on: Despite the new interest bubbling around the stock and the new high prices hit
in the last few days, it’s interesting to note that before Friday’s NR (1) announcing delivery of the final
U$3.1m tranche of the early funding facility from Wheaton (WPM) we’d only had one news release out of the
company in all of 2025, on January 28th (and even that wasn’t much of a market sizzler). Also, the corporate
presentation hasn’t been updated since February (i.e. pre-PDAC). These guys haven’t exactly been marketing
themselves to death in 2025 yet, which suggest to this desk that LUM has been in the same boat as the rest
of us and was hanging on the result of the presidential election before getting busy with its 2025 plans.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): TRADE CLOSED. Not difficult to find a seller. And as we exit Collin Kettell enters,
giving another good reason to avoid this stock. Last week IPT announced a C$3.5m placement (2), expanded
to C$5m on Friday evening, with Trafigura taking C$1.75m of the deal at 20c per LIFE unit (share + ½
warrant at 26c), the rest coming from a standard placement at 18c per unit (share + ½ warrant at 24c) with
Palisades Goldcorp taking C$1.1m of the deal. More dilution, more vague promises of a happy future at a
Plomosas that was never part of our trade thesis. The buy here was about “leverage to silver” and it simply
didn’t work, which is 100% on me, a bad choice of vehicle. Regarding that failure and to wrap up notes on
IPT, the percentage loss is hefty but the overall trade was never large in real dollar terms, it’ll go down as
another speculative loss. It won’t be the last. Sigh.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): TRADE CLOSED. And on the subject of speculative failures, it took a little
longer to exit the PGZ trade and the cash losses were somewhat larger, but again nothing massive and part
of the game. The decision to sell was triggered by the near-term clouds now forming around the copper
space and the cash in treasury, though small, is welcome.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): A good week, this is why we
signed up to this trade in the first place. The 11c close on
Thursday didn’t quite hold into the weekend, but it was the
highest close since early 2023 and augurs well for the near-
term future and the responsiveness of SRL to the positive
political backdrop for mining stocks, now installed in Ecuador.
6

Latin Metals (LMS.v): To point out why we are long LMS aside its latent potential, here’s a longer-term
price chart.
Until volume picks up, it’s likely to trade in fits and starts without breaking out much higher than the 12c and
13c we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks, so if you’ve joined me in this trade make your default setting the
annoying wait, it’s part of the junior exploreco scene and we all get to “enjoy” it from time to time. However,
what it did in early 2023 is perfectly possible and if that happens, it happens on news that will move it from
ignored to loved in the time it takes to read a NR headline. LMS has plenty of irons in the fire, as noted in the
last couple of weeks here at The IKN Weekly, all it needs is one to deliver and while the timing is uncertain,
probabilities of at least one happening soon are high. Get all three pushing the stock and 30c may end up
being a consolidation levels rather then the high of any spike.
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): How many people can say they’ve made a profit by going long this stock?
Not many I’d say, but we’re up 16% in five weeks and off to a
good start. This stock is going to U$3.00 so even after this
trade’s nicely timed start at low levels, there’s plenty more to
enjoy as it picks up momentum through 2025. Be long and as
Sandstorm (see below) also shows, there’s second tier
royalty/streamers are in the sweet spot thanks to a new raft of
fund managers getting gold-curious, but needing to feel as
though they’re buying defensive stocks at the same time.
We should get a pre-earnings production/sales number from
GROY in the days to come, so before that drops a reminder
that we expect 2025 to go from lower to higher and the final
quarter(s) should give us best production numbers, as well as the first truly profitable quarter(s) as its royalty
book starts to bear fruit.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to): I’m happy to have a cost average at C$2.73, rather than one over
C$3 because it would be that much more gut-wrenching a ride in this stock to watch it flash into the red
every other day for no real fundamental reason. Silver is as silver does, after all. On the subject of silver, the
next note contains the public reply to a subscriber question on my (was three now) two open silver trades.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): Monday saw an exchange with reader TS and to paraphrase, his main query
boiled down to two questions:
 If the broad market turns lower, would this affect my silver trades?
 Would I sell any of my silver trades?
Answer 1): Yes. Answer 2): I’d sell both if necessary, but Aftermath goes before AbraSilver. Expanding that a
little, you can accuse me of many things and I’ve already pleaded guilty to obstinacy over selling positions in
conviction trades (e.g. Rio2 Ltd, e.g. Minera Alamos) but I can promise this audience that I’m never going to
fall in love with a silver stock. In fact, if metals start facing demand headwinds as the negative effects of the
Trump Tariffs start to bite, I’d be more willing to dump AAG and ABRA than the two main copper trades,
Amerigo (ARG.to) and Marimaca (MARI.to). As noted last weekend, Amerigo these days is my idea of a core
holding and I’ve made the mistake of trying to get cute with the trade before, only to regret not holding
7

through brief-ish periods of soft macro and missing out on the dividend payments. As for MARI, not only does
it trade thinly, but we are now close to a defining moment in its FS publication and likely marketing to the
highest bidder, that fun scheduled to start this very quarter. Neither of those apply to the silver trades and
while ABRA is now firmly on course for its FS next year and eventual build decision (again, more likely exit
the sale), if a week is a long time in this market a year is an eternity. As for AAG, its earlier stage of
development makes it more speculative by nature and therefore easier to cut if metals dump.
The copper stocks Part Deux (MARI.to) (ARG.to) (SURG.v): A follow-up to last week’s segment on
this sub-group, now without PGZ, to which we mix in the thoughts on ABRA and AAG voiced above and come
to some type of rough conclusion about the order in which I’d lighten the portfolio if (underlined, bold typed,
capital letters IF) a sharp market downturn demanded action. The above note on AAG reiterates and re-
phrases some of the comments made about MARI.to and ARG.to last week, sum them up with “not selling
them unless things go very wrong”. As for SURG.v, we had a NR out of the company and while I’m not sure
how much I care about (8) “…results from an industrial energy efficiency study investigating the potential
benefits of incorporating high-pressure grinding rolls (“HPGR”) into the comminution circuit at its Berg Project
in central British Columbia” (to quote last week’s NR (3)), not at this stage of the project anyway, I reiterate
that the stock is highly undervalued compared to what it has. However, that won’t stop it from staying
undervalued, so if copper does take a near-term dive this is the most likely place I’d lighten. Summing up my
attitude toward the non-gold trades today:
 I want to keep them all and will do while the market remains buoyant (“keep dancing” etc)
 Re copper, I’ll hold ARG and MARI for longer than SURG if market drops
 Re silver, I’ll hold ABRA for longer than AAG if market drops
 Overall, I’ll hold ARG and MARI for longer than ABRA for the specific company reasons.
Hope that makes some sense. Don’t get me wrong, “keep dancing” still applies fully, this is about being
prepared for eventualities.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): Our standard tracking table of liquid-ish assets held by OCI…
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.465 5.48 2.2
ARIC.v 7.39 0.51 3.77 1.5
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.31 1.29 0.5
XXIX.v 39.097 0.10 3.91 1.6
MERG.v 5.125 0.03 0.15 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.035 0.86 0.3
subtotal 15.47 6.2
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 16.67 6.7c
At 247.714 S/O
…show that with the 7.5c close this week, its land assets are now being valued at 0.8c/share, or just under
C$2m total. That’s not even enough for the McGarry shaft, let alone everything else that comes with it. So be
clear, at its current price deck, OCI is one of the best risk/reward propositions you’ll ever get in the micro-cap
sub-10c range. Heaps of downside protection and an easy way forward to a double, triple (or more) on news.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We’re two weeks away from the start of a busier news period for MAI, so until
then it’s a watching brief and the constant eye on Mexico newswires for permitting developments, be they at
MAI projects or anywhere else (see “Mexico: Peter Megaw is right” from IKN830 last weekend).
One small thought to add today; While revisiting IKN820 to check on the Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) write-up
that day in light of BCM’s 4q24 financials filed on Thursday (see Market Watching, below) I noticed the other
note in that edition’s Market Watching section, entitled “Minera Alamos (MAI.v) leaving the penalty box”. That
weekend it was a 32c stock and was starting to show some momentum after falling back to sleep between
November and January and since then it’s managed to add another 12.5%. Not exactly waking up with a
start and I’m the first to agree that 1) it has plenty of catching up to do and 2) other gold stocks have done
8

better than that in the same lapse, driven by the record and ongoing run in bullion, but 12.% isn’t so very
bad either. It’s better than Equinox (EQX) and way better than real dullards such as New Found (NFG.v) or
the aforementioned Bear Creek (BCM.v). And in this case, all it will take is one piece of news, something
along the lines of “…we are pleased to report…”permits awarded”…” at either Santana or Cerro de Oro and
the entire aspect and outlook around MAI will change for the better, without even taking into account the
good things we expect from the now profitable Santana, the US arm from the Sabre acquisition or even the
Minera Copper bonus potential.
The Copper Basket
After sixteen weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 6.82% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 585.37 2.13 49.0%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 420.16 0.14 7.7%
3 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 313.76 1.95 18.2%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 148.409 305.72 2.06 40.1%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 288.85 1.70 -10.5%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 246.82 1.98 -3.4%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 162.22 0.79 6.8%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 141.90 0.56 1.8%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 77.86 0.465 -32.6%
10 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 60.57 0.40 -40.3%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 38.35 0.32 -49.2%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 25.80 0.10 -9.1%
13 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 172.61 25.03 0.15 -9.4%
14 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 14.38 0.41 -31.7%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 74.78 14.21 0.19 -39.7%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -6.82%
Like the Stocks to Follow, the Producer Basket and even the TinyCaps List, the Copper Basket has managed
to staunch the wounds suffered in the first week of April
when the Trump tariffs were revealed on “Liberation The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
10.0%
Day” and caused their market-wide wreckage. Unlike 8.0%
those other three sections of the weekly, The Copper 6.0%
4.0%
Basket remains in negative territory and hasn’t managed 2.0%
0.0%
to bounce back, with the last two weeks only showing
-2.0%
minor recovery for copper exploreco stocks large or -4.0%
-6.0%
small. This week saw seven (SOLG.to, ASCU.to, FDY.to, -8.0%
BIG.v, AE.v, HCH.v, XXIX.v) of our 15 representative -10.0%
-12.0%
copper stocks record gains compared to this time last
weekend, with the only double figure percentage move
coming from SolGold (SOLG.to up 16.7%) as it enjoyed
its Ecuador bounce. Two stocks were unchanged on the
week (ECU.v, KBX.cse) which leaves six as losers (ATX.v, ALDE.v, TMQ.to, REG.v, LBC.v, PM.cse), with
Aldebaran (ALDE.v down 7.6%) falling the most.
Copper-The-Metal was back to its tariff-arb tricks last week and while Easter Week is traditionally a slow one
for London trading it’s impossible to ignore the way LME copper remained largely unchanged while Comex
copper rallied once again. We stick with our normal visual and the Comex futures chart (now moved to the
July contract, as the market rolls over from May and we follow) which shows that prices continued to rise last
9
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02
source: IKN calcs

week and we’re back at the upper end of the previous trading range, rather than just entering it as per last
week.
With LMS all-but flat, it means the arbitrage between the two markets grew again, as seen in our tracking
chart (right). You may remember that the idea last week was to
retire this LME/Comex arbitrage tracker as the worst seemed to Arb between Comex and LME
be over, but to quote Pliny the Elder “In these matters, the only contracts, weekly change
certainty is that nothing is certain”; arb grew as more financial
uncertainty rippled through the market and the Trump admin
began the formal investigation process to decide whether to
impose tariffs on the critical metals sector. Lithium etc got top
billing in media coverage of this new move, but as copper is
included in the critical metals bucket these days (and it’s a big
market) we saw a resurgence of speculation and the price
difference between North American contracts and those in the
rest of the world grew once more.
Our base metals mancrush, Andy Home of Reuters, summed it up nicely in the last paragraph of his op-ed
this week (8)
Copper’s micro and macro dynamics are pulling in opposite directions, albeit for the same reason.
Copper as a macro play cannot but reflect the broader market concerns about the negative impact of
an escalating trade war between the United States and China on the world economy.
But at a micro level, the specific threat of US tariffs on the metal is pulling normal trade patterns out of
shape and causing both LME and Shanghai exchange inventories to fall.
Macro and micro will be reconciled over time but the clash of tariff impacts promises more volatility
ahead.
Stay buckled up. The roller-coaster ride isn’t over yet.
Agreed. However, the increasingly cogent talk of economic slowdown due to the tariffs suggests the risk is
growing to the downside. Jay Powell made it clear in his speech-cum-Q&A last week, as did the EU when it
continued to drop the zone’s base rates, partly in order to “insure the Eurozone against the Trump Tariffs”
(whatever that might mean). Add in reliable reports of a major drop-off in business about to hit the main US-
China container port, Los Angeles, plus that-and-this anecdotal report from sources good and bad about fear
sweeping the US retail section (for what it’s worth, the watch collector community is seriously worried about
what tariffs are about to do to their hobby) plus of course the gold/silver ratio, which has a clear message for
one and all (see today’s intro). Add them all up and I’m now on guard about industrial metals, with Dr.
Copper expected to lead the sentiment direction.
Be clear, the advice to Keep Dancing remains intact and that’s what I’m going to do, it wouldn’t be the first
time I’ve over-imagined bearish winds hitting the market only to watch as reality is less painful. However, I
am less confident about (LME) copper breaking the U$5/lb level again this year and it would be wrong of me
not to express my concerns at this point. Watching the market carefully this week.
Time to switch gears and move to our regular weekly check on world copper inventory levels, Chile’s Cochilco
with the data as ever:
10
93.11 14.41 97.51 12.71
% March 16th March 23rd
march 30th April 6th
22 April 13th April 20th
20
18
16
14
12
10 8
6
4
2
0
Cash 2mo 4mo 6mo
source: Comex, LME, IKN calcs

 World copper inventories in the three official futures systems dropped again last week, but this
time the change was a modest aggregate negative 2,664 metric tonnes (mt), the total remaining
under the 500kmt line for the second week running at 495,311mt.
 The Shanghai SHFE was the only place we saw stock drawdown last week, with 11,330mt leaving
to bring the total to 171,611mt.
 The LME saw its first net add for several weeks as 4,900mt was added to LME Asia warehouses
while a total of only 925mt left other regions, the total add therefore 3,925mt. That puts copper
under LME roof this weekend at 213,400mt.
 Another week-over-week addition to Comex stocks, not a surprise considering the new flow of
physical copper into The USA. Nobody seems to know whether the threats of tariffs on copper
imports will become a reality, but there are always speculators willing to play the odds and the
3,415mt of copper that landed in Comex warehouses last week, bringing the total to 110,300mt
and the highest total Comex inventory since November 2018 is part of the expected equation.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows the standard seasonal pattern continuing to play out, which is a good thing
in an otherwise unpredictable world for metals and mining. 2023 remains our model, which suggests tight
supply for the back end of 2025 and supportive for copper prices (though inventories are only one piece in a
larger puzzle).
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on some basket stocks:
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): The NR out of ALDE dated Tuesday April 15th (4) was entitled “Aldebaran
Provides Update on Altar Field Program, PEA and Earn-In Agreement With Sibanye-Stillwater” and covered
the three subjects mentioned, which is all good and before getting to the real news we learned 1) the 2025
drill program was progressing on schedule and 2) as expected, ALDE had reached its 80% ownership of the
project, with underlying owner Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) retaining its 20%. See the NR for more details on
those subjects, we cut to the real news contained in the NR:
PEA Update
The Company has elected to delay the release of the PEA to Q3-2025 to allow additional time to develop both the
Nuton and non-Nuton cases. Aldebaran is working with its consultants and partners to evaluate multiple
development scenarios for the Altar project, including scenarios that could potentially allow for a faster permitting
process and easier application for benefits under the RIGI tax regime in Argentina. The delay in releasing the PEA
should allow the Company the necessary time to refine these plans.
That’s a one quarter delay to the original plan of delivering the PEA during 2q25 (i.e. this quarter) and for any
student of this company (or that of sister company Regulus, or of the same team’s previous company
Antares), a missed timeline isn’t going to be much of a surprise. However, the mention of Altar being a
candidate for the RIGI law benefits is…errr...let’s call it “opportunistic at best” and be as diplomatic as
possible, the reason being the time limits imposed by RIGI. We covered this in the “Argentina Mailbag” note
published in IKN823, dated February 23rd, when answering a reader query about investment timing in
Argentina as the current iteration of the RIGI law has clear time limits. Here’s the relevant segment from
IKN823:
“This is the law package that benefits investment in projects worth over U$200m and has defined time limits.
RIGI brings plenty of tax breaks and currency benefits and, as seen in the recent numbercrunch on AbraSilver

(ABRA.v), makes a lot of sense for a high capex business such as mine construction. However, RIGI has specific
time limits. Firstly, you must apply in the two year period as stipulated by the law. This time window extendable
by one year, if the Argentina government decides to do so and while it’s not cast-iron guaranteed, it’s extremely
likely that RIGI will be a three year window as from last August. Secondly, your project must be a capital
investment of at least U$200m (so small gold mines need not apply). Thirdly, you must spend at least 40% of
your proposed budget in the first two years after your RIGI plan is approved. In other words, there’s a capex
barrier to entry, there’s a time limit to apply and then there’s a time limit to deploy.”
If we apply RIGI to ALDE at Altar, it easily passes the capex minimum as Altar will cost billions to put
together. However, with the best will in the world it’s extremely difficult to imagine that Altar goes from PEA-
stage to construction decision inside the max-three year time period of the law as stands. In essence,
mentioning Altar as a candidate for RIGI implies a mega-mine project gets through PEA, PFS (at least) and all
the permitting processes by the middle of 2027, then captures required funding (via banks, or far more likely
from being taken over by a deep-pocketed major mining company) gets green-lighted and can then spend at
least 40% of a multi-billion dollar capex bill by 2029.
Sorry folks, not going to happen. In other words, add the mention of RIGI last week to the innumerable
times that John Black/Kevin Heather explorecos throw out an optimistic timeline in order to win applause and
good feels from the peanut gallery, only to disappoint them with the cruel reality later on. This trait has gone
way past boring, if it were just a couple of occasions the tendency would be to forgive but the pathology they
display is indicative of disdain for shareholders and a willingness to lie in order to sound good in the near-
term. Any discerning fund manager in control of seven or eight figure chequebooks should be concerned
about their way of presenting facts.
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): SOLG got its Noboa rally, all right. It makes more sense to use the ten-day
chart of its main UK listing, so here it is (right):
On the one hand a decent pop on the Noboa victory, on the other and unless you had your finger on the
opening bell button there were no shares available under 7p all week. Not only that, but zoom out and we’ll
see that last week wasn’t much more than a relief rally in painful and long-term process.
The strange thing about last week was the NR (5) SOLG decided to put out on the back of the Noboa good
will, as it seemed to put a dampener on momentum and stop the rally before it had a chance to develop.
There wasn’t anything particularly bad about its contents, but if I had to point to the bit that may have irked
the market…
12

As a first step in the plan, the Company has resolved to conduct a targeted drill program of 5,400
metres over 11 priority holes and up to 15 holes in total, which is budgeted at US$3.25m on the
Tandayama resource area.
The program is expected to commence in early May 2025, utilising three drilling rigs to establish
resources in the measured and indicated categories, define limits to near surface mineralisation, and
test for open pittable at or near surface resources on which expedited open pit mining activities may
be commenced. The program is expected to take approximately three months with assay results
available a month later.
…it was the way it presented an outline for a new plan targeting early production, then in the next breath
told the market that the plan would start with a limited drill program and we’d get results from that in four
months’ time. And with, I’m going to cut it short on SOLG this time around, here’s why:
 You should know by now that it’s on my radar as a potential way of play the Noboa feelgood rally for
Ecuador stocks, though I don’t own and currently prefer Salazar and Lumina Gold (what with owning
some shares in both of those and not owning any SolGold at present, QED).
 Until we get some definition in the copper space, I’m not in a hurry to add any more copper exposure to
the personal portfolio.
 On Friday, new SOLG Chair Paul Smith kindly gave me half an hour of his time by phone, during which he
laid out the likely strategy that he and the new team formed at SOLG in the last few weeks (first among
equals new CEO Dan Vujcic). He gave me a lot of food for thought and once the call was over, my view
of SOLG as a potential investment had improved considerably. However, I see no reason to rush into the
trade or situation and will prefer to watch a while, at least for a few weeks, at which point we should
start getting official missives from the company on its plans and more colour on its pathway to “early
production”.
If there were time-sensitive element to SOLG I’d be the first to tell you, but from what I see there’s no
reason to rush in and own immediately. However, please be clear that as from now SOLG is a potential
turnaround trade and with the ducks coming into line in Ecuador and the world (esp China) keen to secure
large-scale supply sources for copper in the decades to come, there’s plenty of medium-term and long-term
potential here. Interesting situation developing, watch this space.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): What LBC tells you:
Vancouver, British Columbia – March 25, 2025 – Libero Copper & Gold Corporation (TSXV: LBC, OTCQB:
LBCMF, FRA: 29H) (“Libero Copper” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the mobilization of a second drill
rig to accelerate its 14,000-metre resource expansion drilling program at the Mocoa porphyry copper-molybdenum
deposit in Putumayo, Colombia
What LBC doesn’t tell you (6) comes from a presser dated April 15th (translated):
"For the past 21 days, the resistance community of Pueblo Viejo (Mocoa district) has maintained an uninterrupted
and peaceful protest measure to impede the entry of machinery, workers and functionaries connected with the
Libero Copper mining company. Having witnessed multiple irregularities committed by this company, (local) adult
women and men, old-aged pensioners and young people have raised their voices and bodies to safeguard their
territory from the risks implied by large-scale mining in a territory such as Mocoa, recognized as the hydraulic
heart of the Andean Amazon."
The press release from locals the Mocoa region continues for another two paragraphs, but the first one above
gives the required information. According to local company spokesperson, the area has seen the arrival of
“political actors” and LBC stated clearly that it has all its correct permits in order for this stage of the
exploration program.
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): A breathless NR from BIG last week, here’s the title and opening paragraph:
Hercules Targets Growth at Leviathan with Breakthrough 3D Model and 12,000-Metre Drill Campaign
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - April 17, 2025) - Hercules Metals Corp. (TSXV: BIG) (OTCQB: BADEF) (FSE: C0X)
("Hercules" or the "Company"), is pleased to announce completion of the first 3D block model of the Leviathan discovery on its
Hercules property in western Idaho (the "Hercules Property"). This milestone provides a clear framework to guide a fully funded
12,000-meter drill campaign, marking a major step toward expanding the discovery and unlocking the broader resource
potential of the Leviathan porphyry system ("Leviathan Porphyry").
There follows a list of bullet points, go take a look here (7) if you so desire, if not here’s a translation:
13

>>>>BIG has generated its targets for this year’s 12,000m drill campaign<<<<
Which is good of course, but all the fancydancy wording
can’t hide the fact that this is exactly what an exploreco
junior is supposed to do. You 1) drill, then 2) consider
results, then 3) decide where to drill next based on updated
information. Then repeat the three steps as many times as
necessary. As for the market, it shrugged (see chart right).
The Producer Basket
After 16 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 42.22% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1127 62.08 55.08 48.0%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 60.52 121.53 55.4%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 35.26 20.17 30.1%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 32.87 171.09 45.5%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 4.36 3.32 36.1%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 4.06 19.80 33.2%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.88 3.64 46.8%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 2.59 5.22 31.2%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 2.52 8.49 52.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 1.94 12.92 43.9%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 42.22%
It wasn’t a full house of winners for our producer basket, despite the continued rocket bullish strength in gold
prices on the week (GLD proxy up 2.755) and the continued upswing in PM stocks, with the GDX improving
by 2.5% and the junior-centric GDXJ up by 4.7%. That’s because Barrick (GOLD down 2.0%) once again
spoiled the party by underperforming and of the nine winners, Newmont (NEM up 0.2%) seems to have run
out of steam as sector leader as well. It was up to the smaller market cappers to put in the best results, with
Sandstorm (SAND up 7.1%) the best of our bunch and OceanaGold (OGC.to up 5.2%) also out-performing.
Our basket average lost exactly one tenth of one percent against the GDX benchmark which is basically
nothing compared to the tons we lost against it in Q1.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
55% comparative to GDX control
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
14
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
9%
8%
ikn 7%
gdx control 6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
source: IKN calcs 1%
0%
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31 ht02
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND) (SSL.to): We did plenty on the SAND 1q25 sales numbers in IKN830
and while its quarter wasn’t eye-popping, it was solid
enough. But that seems to be the right formula in
today’s market, as evidenced by another great week for
SAND shares, now on insto radar screens and offering
the Wall St types a leveraged alternative to FNV or WPM
at the right time in the market cycle. The YTD
comparative chart with GDX (right) shows SAND now
out-performing the ETF packed with plenty of classic
gold mining exposure, that’s a seriously good
performance for a more defensive streamer/royaltyco
such as this.
Back at the start of the year when deciding to include
SAND in the 2025 Producer Basket, here’s the first and
last paragraphs I wrote on the reasons behind the
choice:
“My very own love-to-hate stock, SAND has been an intensely annoying company in the last few years due to its
propensity of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. However, the stars may finally be aligning for the stock
after several years of under-performance and that, coupled with the more defensive nature of a royalty/streamer
in what may be a complicated year for the sector, gets it the vote.”
And…
“Overall, SAND is often a painful ride and you simply cannot trust management to do the right thing or stay
away from making further dumb deals. For 2025, all this company really needs to do is not to touch the controls
and the share price should improve organically. At the current low ebb, the risk is biased to the upside and I’m
going to take a chance on getting the timing right.”
With the benefit of a quarter (and a bit’s) worth of hindsight, that’s looking like a good call and SAND is the
only truly successful pick I can point at for the 2025 list (so far…hope springs eternal). Within reason,
Watson&Co have left the corporation on automatic pilot and not tried to do something they’re not very good
at (namely “be clever”), resulting in a company that’s now harvesting and showing it can get a virtuous circle
going. While the debt paydown is still slower than it might be, your author doesn’t have anywhere near the
amount of annoyance or gripes about SAND in 2025 than in other years. Just keep the suited’n’booted C-
suiters away from the controls, please.
Barrick (GOLD): Once again the fail among the group, once again Mali being its weak flank, GOLD was
going okay and trading at the peer average until the NR “Barrick Calls for Responsible Leadership as Mali
Situation Escalates” appeared on Tuesday (8) in
which we learned that the heads-up agreement
between company and government as reported by
Reuters a few weeks ago hadn’t crystallized, the two
are still at loggerheads, the government had forced
the closure of the Barrick corporate offices in the
country and was (we quote) “…threatening to place
the Loulo-Gounkoto mine under provisional
administration unless the mine was reopened and
tax payments were made — even though gold
exports remain blocked.” Not great.
Mali under its new regime has obviously become a
difficult place to go mining for formal mining
companies with public listing and a long list of rules
to which they must adhere, we note Fortuna’s decision to exit the country last week as further evidence. True
B2Gold has managed to avoid the same issues, but arguably that’s because they decided not to push back
against the government shakedown and just give them what they wanted. The problem there is known by
anyone who’s studied the pathology of blackmailers, they’ll always go back for more.
15

The TinyCaps List
After 16 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 1.33% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 14.73 0.11 -35.3%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 16.59 0.1175 -19.0%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 5.94 0.06 -53.8%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 27.92 0.16 10.3%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 31.32 0.4125 5.8%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 11.58 0.12 50.0%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 268.9 40.34 0.15 15.4%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 13.96 0.13 52.9%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 21.06 0.40 -27.3%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 23.28 0.16 14.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 1.33%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps basket average managed to force its way TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
6%
back into positive territory last week, which is a decent
4%
result just two weeks after the big dump but at the same 2%
time, we’re still all-but neutral with almost a third of the 0%
year already behind us. Still, the week was reasonable with -2%
-4%
just two losers (LMS.v, STS.v), two unchanged stocks
-6%
(ELY.v, MOG.v) and six winners (BRO.v, CN.v, EDG.v, -8%
KDK.v, RDU.v, VAU.v). Most of the moves were on the small -10%
size, but two of the winners are worthy of separate
mention, namely Barksdale (BRO.v up 15.8%) and
Endurance (EDG.v up 14.3%).
Barksdale Resources (BRO.v): Delbrook Capital got a great
deal (9), funding BRO $3m via a convertible debenture that
pays 10% per annum and comes due a year and a half from
now, the convert price 12c. Another with a good deal was the
finder (Medalist Capital) who got 1.2m shares for its pleasure.
Now BRO has working capital to go out and do things and
legacy holders have time to meditate over how many times in
2025 and 2026 they’re going to get diluted in the same way.
BRO moves up 15.8% on the week, a move that means
nothing considering the tiny volumes involved. Avoid.
Condor Resources (CN.v): In April 14th CN announced a $1.5m placement, planning to sell 12.5m units at
12c apiece (unit = share + ½ warrant priced at 15c to 20c depending on the exercise date), then on April
15th it gave you another reason to ignore the stock (10):
16
ts1naJ ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht9 dr32 ht6rpA ht02
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Vancouver, B.C., April 15, 2025 – Condor Resources Inc. (“Condor” or the “Company”) (TSXV:CN) is pleased to
announce that Crescat Capital LLC (“Crescat”), a strategic institutional shareholder of Condor, will participate in
the Company’s LIFE Offering Private Placement of up to $1.5 million announced in Condor’s April 14, 2025 news
release. Crescat will subscribe for $500,000 of the private placement through Crescat Portfolio Management LLC
on behalf of its Pooled Investment Funds. Additional insiders will also subscribe for a significant portion of the
private placement.
Crescat, the Shiva Fund of the TSXV, destroyers of entire worlds. In fact it’s not that big a surprise, as
Quinton Hennigh is a director of CN.v and both sides have plenty of warm and fuzzy things to say about each
other in the NR. Please note that as it’s a LIFE offering, there is no escrow period and we should expect
plenty of those warrants to be clipped so anyone paying at or over 12.5c for CN shares in the open market in
the weeks to come needs a few lessons in risk management. Warm and fuzzy hits hard capitalism.
Viva Gold (VAU.v): Further to the note last week, the latest VAU corporate presentation offers this little list
as near-term price catalysts:
On asking, I was told this week that the resource estimate and/or PEA are expected to drop around three to
four weeks from now, which gives you reasonable time to position if you like the risk/reward potential here.
You now know everything I know.
Electrum Discovery (EDY.v): Another with news last week, EDY announced (11) the next phase of its
exploration program at its East Timok property in Serbia, this quote gives the overview of its objectives:
“The planned program is designed to refine high-priority targets through a combination of detailed geological
mapping, geophysical surveys, geochemical sampling, and petrological studies.”
In other words, no drilling. We’re reminded about the early stage of this project, so the hype surrounding the
two early stage holes that didn’t manage to hit any type of home run has faded away and holders of this
stock have two choices; sell at a loss and use the cash for something else or tuck the shares away with the
required long-term perspective. I’d go for the latter if I were holding, by all accounts this is a decent and
honest new team and they deserve their chance to play out their theory on what is undoubtedly a highly
prospective neighbourhood for exploration geology.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina: The clamp is off
As noted in IKN830 last weekend, the Milei government took the opportunity offered to it by the successful
closure of a new deal with the IMF and the arrival of fresh USD funds for its Central Bank reserves and made
good on one of its key election pledges; the “cepo cambiario” (currency “clamp”, or control) was abandoned
last weekend and on Monday, the country began its new era of (relatively) free trading Peso against the
mighty Greenback. Here’s a screenshot of the one month ARS/USD forex pair chart, taken from the nice
people at xi dot com (12):
17

Can you see when the clamp came off? Yeah, me too. However, the rally midweek last week must have come
as a breath of fresh air to the Milei team and the 12% devaluation out the gate on Monday (from 1074 Pesos
to the US Dollar to 1204 or so) was cut almost exactly in half, the week-over-week move ending at +5.96%.
As they say in Denmark (13) “Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden” (It is difficult to
make predictions, especially about the future) so we’re not forecasting a world of hearts and flowers on the
back of this single event, but we can and should applaud the Milei administration for grasping the nettle,
getting the major hurdle behind it and successfully managing the start of the new era of free-floating (or will
be soon) currency.
Wrapping up the Ecuador election result
We cover the mining repercussions in other places today (see “Market Watching” below, see today’s main
funnies section for Lumina Gold (LUM.v) details, see SolgGold (SOLG.to, SOLG.L) in Copper Basket notes, see
Stocks to Follow on LUM.v and SRL.v), here a couple of words on how the election result has been received
in the region. First the final result (14)...
 Luisa González: 44.37%
 Daniel Noboa: 55.63%
…which makes Noboa an eleven point victor, getting 5.87m votes to González’s 4.68m. For those that care
(and we should considering some of the fallout from the result), 92.63% of votes cast were valid, 6.7% were
spoiled and 0.67% were “voted in white” (i.e. no vote cast and paper handed in as per). We remind readers
that voting is obligatory in Ecuador. This compares to the previous result between these two candidates in
October 2023, when Noboa got 5.25m votes in the second round run-off, compared to González's 4.88m and
7.7% spoiled ballots.
Therefore, we can say in 18 months both candidates improved their vote counts, but Noboa managed to
convince around half a million more Ecuadorians to vote for his cause and fewer people remained ambivalent
to the election process. We go into this to push back at Luisa González’s claims after the result that “massive
fraud” had taken place, instead what we saw was the result of a better campaign run by Noboa, reminiscent
of his 2023 First Round campaign in which he came from behind to claim second spot and go on to beat the
left wing candidate. González’s claims of fraud don’t add up in the math (and hilariously, Nico Maduro of
Venezuela made plenty of noises about election fraud in Ecuador last week, the Spanish word “caradura”
(literally “hard face”, meaning brass neck or bare-faced cheek) coming to mind) and while the official
observers from the Organization of American States and the European Union mentioned that the government
used its executive leverage to out-promote the opposition, they didn’t see any sign of the “massive fraud” it
would require the turn around a victory of over a million votes (15). Instead, we should reflect on the two
main reasons national political watchers are giving for the size of the Noboa victory, plus our own wider
observation:
1) Noboa effective used the RC Party’s position on Dollarization against his opponent. He is a strong
supporter of the US Dollar and keeping it as the national currency. Luisa González paid lip-service to
the same, but the idea of some extra floating local currency (perhaps crypto) was in the party
conversation. Noboa used this weak point effectively (his catch phrase was a rhyme, “Luisa Te
Desdolariza”, or “Luisa will De-Dollarize you”) and Ecuador showed its strong support to remain fully
Dollarized by voting with him.
18

2) Luisa González’s position on Venezuela cost her plenty of votes. Her position of recognizing
Venezuela’s President as legitimate, no matter how she nuanced it, was pounced upon and Noboa
accused RC of wanting to install the same type of dictatorship. Voters agreed with him and in
particular, the floating/undecided centre which came to view Noboa at least worst.
Our third and wider observation is about South America in general, as the Ecuador election result brings more
solid evidence of the rise of the political right wing in the region. Add this result to the following:
 Milei’s groundbreaking win in Argentina
 Peru’s major shift to the political right under Boluarte (installed as Vice- President under the
lefty Pedro Castillo)
 Bolivia’s left wing MAS Party under pressure in Bolivia’s election this year, the first time in over
20 years they could realistically lose.
 The unpopularity of the Boric government in Chile, despite his track from the political hard left
toward the centre, and the high likelihood of the next Chilean President coming from the right
wing
 The unpopularity of the Petro government in Colombia and the high likelihood of the next
President coming from the right wing
Not to mention the blatant fix that was the Venezuela election in 2024, won by the right wing by a large
margin. If we combine the three observations, the message is positive for business in South America and that
very much includes our focus sector. People here 1) want to work and become prosperous 2) will go out of
their way to ensure what happened in Venezuela doesn’t happen in their country 3) are evermore willing to
vote for the political right wing.
Colombia: President Petro’s attitude toward mining
If you need a reminder about the ambivalence this current admin has toward the mining industry, check out
the latest installment (16) of the ongoing mining soap opera in the Jericó region, location of the Anglogold
Ashanti Quebradona copper/gold project. Controversial for years and strongly opposed by locals, the
Quebradona project was singled out by Petro while he was campaigning for President back in 2021 and 2022.
Since then it’s got nowhere, but recently the issue flared up again when
Anglogold Ashanti tried to install a drill pad and rig at the project, only to incur
the ire of the anti-mining community around it. Locals claimed Anglogold
Ashanti was wildcatting a drill pad, but it turns out that they had quietly
applied for and received the permits for the pad and the drilling from the
regional government. Up until last week the issue was regional, but on
Wednesday it blew up when Petro stuck his oar in, publishing this tweet (17)
that stated the functionary who approved the drill permit(s) had been fired
and that he would personally make sure his pledges he made to stop the
project from going ahead during his election campaign were upheld, among
other pro-environment/anti-mining turns of phrase.
Semi-related, we now have a confirmed schedule for the 2026 elections (18)
with the Congressional elections on March 8th, then the vote to decide the
next President (and Veep) on May 31st 2026. If required (and it’s very likely),
the second round run-off between the top two candidates happens on June
21st 2026. So, still over a year to go before the fun happens and between
now and then, we have major votes to get though in Bolivia, Chile and the
important mid-terms in Argentina (to decide upper and lower house seats, but
basically a de facto referendum on the Milei government).
Market Watching
The Ecuador mining stocks rally
As noted last weekend, predicting the rally in Ecuador stocks after last week’s Noboa election victory was the
easiest buy call of the year and sure enough, the market did what it was supposed to do. To cut a long story
19

short, this chart uses GDXJ as its benchmark and includes the main traded Canadian junior stocks exposed to
Ecuador (missing out Lucky Minerals LKY.v and other such wastes of time) as well as a couple of larger
companies. The chart is a bit busy, but you should get the general idea:
Three notes to the chart:
 We include Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) as an example of a larger market capper with exposure to
Ecuador, its Loma Larga project a lesser influence on the stock price than its European operations and
sure enough, DPM tracked the benchmark GDXJ reasonable faithfully last week.
 Then come the bulk of the companies, with the other bigger company Lundin Gold (LUG.to) up around
15%, then Atico (ATY.v), SolGold (SOLG.L), Salazar (SRL.v) and Solaris (SLS.to) up between 15% and
20%, then Aurania (ARU.v) up a little more than 20% but basically the same story.
 Finally and separately, let’s call Lumina Gold (LUM.v) and its +30% move the winner. Chequered flags,
national anthems and champagne sprayed from the podium.
In other words, the stocks did as expected, as seen in IKN828 in our main preview note…
“…if Noboa wins all mining stocks exposed to Ecuador would move significantly higher…”
…and last weekend in IKN830 with the Noboa W booked…
“…as stated, Ecuador is a blanket buy on the Noboa victory…”
…a couple of example quotes, plenty more to choose from. But that was then and this is now, so the
question is what to expect from these stocks going forward. The answer to that is “the same as before”,
because with or without a pro-mining government at the national helm, projects in Ecuador will fail if they
don’t have local community support. We should also note the cynical way in which groups opposed to mining
tend to operate in the country, the typical example being CONAIE. They all give blanket, cover-all “no to
mining” declarations and official policy statements, but when it comes down to activism they’ll choose to
oppose those projects with the most local pushback. Examples:
 They never mention Lundin Gold (LUG.to) at Fruta del Norte, not since the mine brought wealth and
social stability to the region anyway.
 The fierce opposition to the Curipamba/El Domo mine evaporated the moment the project got its
permitting green light from the government. Since then, it’s become a valuable source of local
investment and the zone is on track to repeat the CSR successes seen at Fruta del Norte (assuming the
Toerag Feng doesn’t bring in “Chinese Community Relations Culture” once the mine is operational)
 SolGold’s Cascabel Project and Lumina Gold’s Cangrejos Project are two that no means enjoy perfect
community relations but there are enough pro-project people to counter the antis and allow a “normal”
CSR scenario to unfold.
20

 However, CONAIE, anti-mining politicians and assorted green activists never shut up about Dundee’s
Loma Larga or Solaris’s Warintza, precisely because the vast majority of the local and/or regional
community oppose the installation of the mines in question.
That, in essence, is how to approach Ecuador going forward. We’ve seen a price pop in nearly all Ecuador-
exposed mining stocks this week and rightfully so, but that re-rate only gets you so far and what any
company or project needs is green lights from all stakeholders, nbot just the national level. If you require a
model for the upcoming Noboa years in mining there, look to Peru. Its Southern neighbour has the deserved
reputation as “mining country” but as anyone who’s been watching knows, the local opposition to projects
such as Cañariaco, Tia Maria, Conga, Rio Blanco, Santa Ana (to name but five off the top of my head) is more
than enough to stop them all in their tracks (and while thinking about it, you’ll remember me when
Highlander Silver’s (HSLV.cse) San Luis project blows up in its face one of these fine days….oh look, same
people as Solaris….oh what a coincidence). So as Peru goes, so will Ecuador under the current and upcoming
pro-mining presidency of Daniel Noboa. I’m long Salazar Resources (SRL.v) because it’s in good shape with
locals. I’m long Lumina Gold (LUM.v) because it’s also good with locals and again, I stress that it doesn’t have
to be 100% pro-mining among the local opinion (there will always be opposition to any mining project), what
we need is a clear majority in favour and/or small numbers that are active opposition. After those, I’m
thinking about SolGold and while more complicated at a corporate level, it enjoys the same reasonable CSR
as, let’s say, LUM.v. Also and to be clear, have no problem with Lundin Gold (LUG.to) even though the
company is too expensive for my junior mining blood these days. However, I wouldn’t touch Solaris
Resources (SLS.to) (SLSR) at Warintza for the same reasons I wouldn’t touch Alta Copper at Cañariaco and
the same applies to Dundee at Loma Larga, Atico at La Plata and anything Aurania (ARU.v) is trying to sell to
the world.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) delivers its 4q24 financials
In IKN820 dated February 2nd, the Market Watching note “Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): Until further notice for
gamblers only” laid out our issues with this company, one we traded on a small scale with some success in
2024. The title line sums up the viewpoint, the note went into some
detail but in essence, we saw plenty of reasons to avoid this stock at
its price range that was floating between C$0.35 and C$0.40 at the
time.
That turned out to be the right call. As seen in the 2025 YTD price
chart for BCM.v (right), the stock has been cut in half since then
and closed this weekend at C$0.175, a woeful drop precipitated by
the two NRs dated March 4th (during PDAC) (19) (20) announcing a
C$14.5m bailout-style placement priced at C$0.225 along with
wholesale changes at board level and the start of a Strategic
Review.
Background now in place, we skip quickly to this week and BCM’s delivery of its 4q24 financials and given
some margin of error, it’s not just our skepticism of BCM as a trade on silver that turned out to be right.
Starting with operations, our guesstimate include revenues of U$21m and costs of U$16m, making revenues
minus costs +U$5m, then after DD&A is factored a gross loss of U$2m, then an operating earnings
unadjusted for impairments of negative U$7m. Those were our guesses, here’s the reality:
BCM.v: Operations overview
21
180.01
255.1
925.8 455.62 127.32 338.2 304.42 730.81 663.6 182.42 573.41 609.9 988.91 216.41 772.5 508.81 743.41 854.4 371.62 869.51
502.01 235.72
97.61
247.01
831.22 528.51 313.6
486.92
945.61
531.31
483.42
531.81
942.6
40
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
revenues
COGS
diff
Source: company filings

Revenues were $3.3m higher than our guess, costs were $1.1m higher, DD&A higher by $2.7m an the
resulting gross loss was U$3.515m.
BCM: Mercedes operations, per qtr
22
196.3
619.0
840.3-
328.7-
25.0-
676.9-
62.1-
598.5-
623.3-
944.6-
957.6-
256.11-
419.0-
767.4-
933.3
694.1-
426.2-
181.7-
749.5
983.0
515.3-
781.8-
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m gross profit
Op earnings
source: company filings, IKN ests
As for operating earnings, the official total of negative U$35.3m isn’t on the above chart as we back out the
impairment of U$27.196m, giving a loss of U$8.187m with the
house guess only a million and change out. Close enough. BCM.v: Assets
300
Meanwhile, over at the balance sheet we framed our ballpark 250
in IKN820 with these words: “…that’s anyone’s guess on how 200
much so I’m going to take a stab at U$15m and see how close
150
that is come the report.” All we knew was that impairment
100
would happen, it was very difficult to guess on exactly how
50
much rock (i.e. ounces) would be downgraded by the new
0
approach in a multi-stope UG mine. As things turned out and
as seen above, BCM impaired to U$27.196m, a heavy hit you
can see in the assets tracking chart (right).
With liabilities developing as seen below (below left current only, below right including long-term liabilities)…
…for one thing, working capital remains close to negative U$100m and cash treasury remained at a liquid-
not-much-more level of U$6.678m. This explains why BCM went to market in early March to raise C$14.5m
for mine development plans; BCM has the cash to keep ticking over, but cannot organically produce the funds
required to improve Mercedes and get it to where it could become a decent, profitable operation.
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m fixed
other current
inventory
cash
source: company filings
BCM.v: Current liabilities breakdown per qtr
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m BCM.v: Liabilities breakdown per qtr
other current liab
convert debenture 200
note payable 180
A/c payable 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
source: company filings
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m A/c payable note payable
convert debenture other current liab
LT liab
source: company filings
BCM.v: Working Capital per qtr
5.22 9.71
7.43-
5.34- 2.15- 0.06- 5.75- 1.66- 7.98- 2.88- 8.29- 2.39- 0.79-
40
20
0
-20 -40
-60
-80
-100
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m BCM.v: Cash treasury per qtr
26
24
22
20
18
16 14 12 10 8
6
4
2
0
source company filings
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo snoillim

That’s moved the share count up to a new IKN estimate of 292m shares out, meanwhile and as at 4q24,
crunch of higher liabilities and lower asset value has pinched the book value of BCM to just C$0.14/share,
which goes a long way to explaining just why the stock price has done what it’s done.
BCM.v: Shares Out
The bottom line: Eleven weeks ago and despite having run a nice little fliptrade win on the stock in 2024 we
decided that BCM in 2025 “…is for gamblers only” and “…better avoided by all but the most risk averse
among you until we know more.” The results as seen last week, on top of the wholesale corporate re-work
and dilutive financing six weeks ago, confirm that opinion.
There is, however, the potential for a trade in BCM today and it centers around the asset we focused on
during our trade last year, Corani. The strategic review announced in March made it plain that all options
would be on the table regarding Corani and that means BCM must be considering a sale to a third party. As
at 4q24, Corani is carried at just over U$80m and as they ran an impairment exercise to close out the year
(i.e. they lopped over U$27m off the asset value of Mercedes), we can reasonable assume the board would
not accept any less from a buyer. Assuming the 292m shares out above, that comes to U$0.274, or C$0.39
and implies a potential double-plus to the current share price. So if you feel like second-guessing an M&A
deal and consider BCM will sell Corani in order to develop and turn around Mercedes, there’s plenty of
potential reward on offer. Personally and unless we get more evidence that some kind of deal is close I’m
going to pass and prefer silver speculative plays that aren’t weighed down by debt laden balance sheets and
misfiring mining operations that year after year always seem to be one or two quarters away from turning
profitable. If you’re long BCM the day it announces the sale of Corani you’ll make money, be in no doubt, but
there’s no guarantee of the price remaining where it is in the meantime (just check that BV/share).
Aclara Resources and lawfare (ARA.to)
This isn’t going to be a long note, more of a heads-up on the risks involved with Aclara Resources (ARA.to) if
you are considering using it as a way joining the new momentum for rare earths. These price charts below,
with 2023-to-date below left and the last 12 months below right, show where ARA has come from since
starting out as a public company in late 2022 (we run from Jan 1st 2023 and miss the highest IPO prices)
23
72.421 72.421 58.251 14.351 03.451 46.451 46.451 73.171 37.891 85.722 56.722 627.722 822 292
350
300
250
200
150 100
50
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo snoillim
BCM book value per share (C$), 2021 to date
1.161.121.12
1.20 1.05
0.96
1.00
0.860.82
0.70
0.80 0.57
0.60 0.42 0.350.32 0.40 0.14
0.20
0.00
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings
erahs/$C

The potted history is that 1) ARA was flipped out of its mothership company, Peruvian silver miner Hochschild
(HOC.L), in order to develop the Penco Module rare earth project in Chile 2) the advent of the Boric
government hit the project’s permitting track and the company withdrew its Environment Permit Application
3) in 2024 it re-submitted its enviro permit application and somewhere along the way 4) added a second rare
earth project to its books, the Carina project in Brazil. Despite those developments in 2023 and 2024, the
share price flat-lined through that period but in recent weeks, a rally and approximate 30% breakout has
finally come thanks to exterior influences, rather than anything inside the company. The new focus on rare
earths (with or without the influence of President Trump and his entourage has brought many sector stocks
into focus and ARA’s run has been profitable for those who bought on the speculation.
Your author is here to warn its audience: This company has serious permitting issues.
Three things to consider, which we then tie together:
1) The ownership roster of ARA has never broken away from its underlying owners, with HOC.L owning
19.9% of shares and the main man at the company, Eduardo Hochschild, owns another 37.7% of shares,
effectively putting ARA under executive control of HOC. This is not a minor side issue, as it means ARa is run
with the same mentality as the HOC mines in Peru and when it comes to CSR and ESG
2) Since its conception, the flagship Penco project (they use the word “module”) has faced stiff and
significant pushback from the local community in the zone, indeed the reason ARA withdrew its EIA
application in 202 was that it knew the permit would be denied at that time and decided discretion was the
better part of valour. Thanks to its recent disclosures (21) we now know how many queries ARA.to faced to
its application via Chile’s ICSARA system (Informe Consolidado de Aclaraciones, Rectificaciones o
Ampliaciones, translated as Consolidated Statements, Rectifications or Amplifications Report) that collects
observations on any civil works project EIA application. We quote:
“The Technical ICSARA, received from the SEA on September 12, 2024, included 394 technical observations on
EIA 1. Additionally, the Citizen ICSARA, received on December 12, 2024, comprised 1,331 observations gathered
by the SEA during the citizen participation process.”
That’s a lot in both categories, but particularly in the citizen’s participation process and indicates the strength
of opposition to the project. ARA filed its answers to those queries at the end of 1q25, that’s inside the time
expected with the next stage expected to start in May when it fields “observations on observations”, i.e.
further information required by the SEA permitting authority. However, we need to underscore that when it
comes to Chile, the rights of citizens are strictly maintained and if a local community is set against a project,
they have a de facto veto and it’s close to impossible to move it through to project permit stage . Los Andes
Copper (LA.v) at Vizcachitas has learned this the hard way and despite trying to portray an image of
cooperation and social outreach kumbaya, ARA suffers in the same way at Penco.
3) Which brings us to the third point: Rare indeed is the mining project that has zero opposition and it’s
perfectly normal to have NIMBY people, or anti-mining NGOs, or truly concerned citizens against any given
project. However, it’s not so common to have the mining company using the courts to try and gag its
opponents and stop them from disseminating their opposing points of view. That’s what is happening at ARA,
where the company has resorted to lawfare in an attempt to silence leaders of groups and associations in
Penco opposed to the development of the mine. This story (22) came to light just a couple of weeks ago, as
a court ruling went against ARA’s petition to gag its main opponent, to censor their previous publications on
social media and to stop them from speaking out against the project. It’s a preliminary ruling and may be
overturned by a higher court, but it wouldn’t even have found its way to your author’s newsfeed if the lower
court had ruled in ARA’s favour. This type of lawfare 1) makes one wonder just how much ARA wants to keep
away from the eyes and ears of the outside world and 2) brings a stark reminder of the standard arrogance
at Hochschild, a company with a deserved reputation for treating its workforce and local communities badly
and one that comes from the way it’s run, top down. There’s nothing quite as odious in mining as the
stereotypical pompous Peruvian mining magnate.
Put simply, ARA doesn’t want you to know how badly its permitting process is going and is now using the
courtrooms to silence its opponents (or at least trying to), which may work in the near-term but in Chile, the
likelihood your project gets a green light without the local communities being on board is somewhere
between thin and none and the day the bad news on its permitting track is revealed to the market is the day
you, dear rare earths speculator, will regret not choosing a different company as your exposure to the sub-
sector. Avoid ARA.
24

Conclusion
IKN831 is done, we close as usual with bullet points:
 The “Buy Ecuador” call on the back of the Noboa victory started well last week, but there’s plenty
more to come. From now on, when it’s mining consider Ecuador the way we consider Peru.
 Not the greatest edition today, frustrating to write and lacking in substantive content. Must try
harder, but if you need to take one thing away from IKN831 it’s “Buy LUM.v”, so cheap it’s impossible
to model reasonably without ending up with crazy price targets.
 Gold continues to rise and rise, but it’s still not the time to try and second-guess the market top and
sell. Hold and hold again, the only correct selling window is after any top, not before. Every ounce of
gold you own (and increasingly, the shares in gold miners) is there to insure your net worth against
the wider world of financial pain. Don’t lose that insurance policy now, not at the moment you most
need it.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos
(MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://luminagold.com/lumina-gold-announces-us3-1-million-wheaton-precious-metals-draw-and-amendment-to-the-pmpa/
(2) https://impactsilver.com/investors/news/impact-silver-announces-3.5-million-non-brokered-financing-with-a-lead-order-from-strategics-
trafigura-pte-ltd-and-palisades/
(3) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-evaluates-energy-saving-hpgr-technology-for-berg-project/
(4) https://aldebaranresources.com/aldebaran-provides-update-on-altar-field-program-pea-and-earn-in-agreement-with-sibanye-stillwater/
(5) https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/solgold/news/rns/story/xol3y3x
(6) https://www.lasillavacia.com/silla-amazonia/amazonia-en-breve/comunidad-en-mocoa-se-opone-a-operacion-de-libero-cobre/
(7) https://www.herculesmetals.com/news-release/?qmodStoryID=7692960764148157
(8) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-calls-for-responsible-leadership-as-mali-situation-
escalates/default.aspx
(9) https://www.barksdaleresources.com/news/news-release/439-arksdalennouncesupto3illionrivatelacementofo20250414153502.html
(10) https://condorresources.com/news/strategic-investor-crescat-capital-to-participate-in-condors-private-placement-of-up-to-1-5-million/
(11) https://electrumdiscovery.com/electrum-discovery-launches-spring-2025-field-program-and-confirms-extension-to-surface-copper-
mineralization-at-timok-east/
(12) https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=ARS&view=1M
(13) https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/
(14) https://elecciones2025-
2v.cne.gob.ec/?afd_azwaf_tok=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiJ9.eyJhdWQiOiJlbGVjY2lvbmVzMjAyNS0ydi5jbmUuZ29iLmVjIiwiZXhwIjoxNzQ1MT
AwODg0LCJpYXQiOjE3NDUxMDA4NzQsImlzcyI6InRpZXIxLTc1Y2Q5OGM3Yy1xNmx0biIsInN1YiI6IjUxLjE1OC4yNTMuMTUyIiwiZGF0
YSI6eyJ0eXBlIjoiaXNzdWVkIiwicmVmIjoiMjAyNTA0MTlUMjIxNDM0Wi1yMTc1Y2Q5OGM3Y3E2bHRuaEMxRFVTZ2R4MDAwMDAwMD
BkejAwMDAwMDAwMGR2cTQiLCJiIjoiN191TjZLVmlkSXVpUXR6OFJnMG5fb0tEdmZsbG5IdjloVUhfR0N5eWd6MCIsImgiOiJZeTczN0dy
aDJhbmp2TTY4UWpWMnZrQjFQQW1jSVhVeHdXcVQ2NG41U0ZrIn19.ciCYanqhciPmNOlahcgp3K5fb7Y5ppyyOrXOJb0IY1feYdFivXH
6E7vgKw9L55smcm1sWo15QwsUtcMzU1ZeQQCiuf9i-QpI6A-2zrhsmEBWDo15ryZPzYxxIQClWOrFntZTYddCFfPwlaiwYQeW0GAx4n1-
eEcCoLk2WvX_jDFeApJhLBlA2lEHGEQ6TxHa9HYuf7RXNPj2khrDaG04B53vULYCcEcXG8-XCLoa-
nW8tNtrljOTgq8RbgRUb5TW5sR9Dxv_I0nmsIv-
znsER9Ew6Fo8vp86Utc8_6Z_0uf1IlIXFQRXEnJ9_HVW4dMosPOCWNxPdiFEZHd3z21T_g.WF3obl2IDtqgvMFRqVdYkD5s
(15) https://www.eldebate.com/internacional/20250417/no-hubo-fraude-electoral-ue-oea-desmienten-narrativas-derrotada-luisa-
gonzalez_289051.html
25

(16) https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2025/04/16/gustavo-petro-aseguro-que-pidio-la-renuncia-de-funcionaria-que-renovo-licencia-de-
exploracion-minera-en-antioquia-traiciono-el-programa-del-gobierno-nacional/
(screenshot right)
(17) https://x.com/petrogustavo/status/1912385678236615159
(18) https://registraduria.gov.co/El-Registrador-Nacional-presento-el-calendario-electoral-para-las-elecciones-al.html
(19) https://bearcreekmining.com/news/bear-creek-mining-announces-brokered-private-placement-appointment-of-peter-c-mitchell-and-
ian-grundy-as-directors-debt-amendments-and-credit-extension/
(20) https://bearcreekmining.com/news/bear-creek-mining-announces-strategic-review-appointment-of-christian-milau-as-strategic-
advisor/
(21) https://cdn.prod.website-
files.com/67b9c5dc15db73b34fcf2bf3/67fd72004dd5c6c01591a3be_Aclara%20Permit_Update_Press%20Release.pdf
(22) https://www.elciudadano.com/medio-ambiente/aclara-busca-censurarnos-ambientalista-denuncia-amedrentamiento-judicial-por-
criticar-proyecto-minero/04/09/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
26

Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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