IKN #830Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 830, April 13th 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Didn’t Panic.
Fundamental Analysis: Adding Lat
Stocks to Follow: IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v), Gold Royalty
Corp (GROY), AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to), Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), The copper stocks (MARI.to)
(SURG.v) (ARG.to) (PGZ.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Libero Copper (LBC.v), Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax), Aldebaran Resources
(ALDE.v), Element 29 (ECU.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Sandstorm Gold (SAND) (SSL.to), Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Viva Gold (VAU.v), Endurance Gold (EDG.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador’s Presidential election result, Chile: Boric’s about-turn on mining, More CESCO:
Quoting CEOs on The Trump Tariffs according to media agenda, Argentina: The end of currency controls,
Argentina: RIGI Part Deux, Mexico: Peter Megaw is right, Bolivia: The field for August.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Three trades planned:
1) It’s probably not the bargain price I aimed for, but the victory of Daniel Noboa today means that Lumina
Gold (LUM.v) is an obvious buy. This time next week I’ll be an owner at some-or-other price and the stock
will move from its place in the Watch List to the main section of Stocks to Follow. Please see the brief note at
the top of today’s main Fundies section and the top of today’s Regional Politics section for more.
2) and 3) Due to the volatile nature of the market and the way in which the two stocks traded, I didn’t go
through with the planned sales of Pan Global (PGZ.v) and IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) last week. However, I still
plan to sell the two stocks in the coming week, please see today’s Stocks to Follow notes section for more.
In today’s edition
 Didn’t Panic. Gold put in a rally to remember last week, not only clawing back the margin call losses of
two Fridays ago but accelerating to new all-time highs. What a difference a week makes and the good
times rolled all the way through your author’s portfolio, a couple of copper trades aside. We’re now
back to listening to market soothsayers predicting a top in gold and while they may be right, the
advice remains exactly the same as it’s been all year: The music hasn’t stopped, so keep dancing.
 The Ecuador election result is bullish for all mining companies and stocks exposed to the country, so
expect the entire list of Ecuador mining plays to rally tomorrow an this week (Trump permitting). I’ve
picked Salazar (SRL.v) already, this week Lumina Gold (LUM.v) gets added to the active portfolio but
don’t feel restricted to those.
 The Producer Basket stocks had one of their best ever week-over-week improvements, every bit as
powerful as the move out of the Covid crisis low in 2020. We tip our hat to the move as it’s what you
see at the start of a period when big money discovers gold stocks, not at the end. We also take a
1

closer look at the Q1 production/sales numbers posted by Sandstorm (SAND) and Wesdome (WDO.to)
last week
 Other things, too. There are always other things.
Didn’t Panic
Better a patient person than a warrior,
one with self-control than one who takes a city.
Proverbs 16:32, NIV
This isn’t going to be a long intro section this week, we did enough blow-by-blow in IKN829 last weekend so
instead, we’ll update and adjust on the three metals and their dependent stocks as and if required, then
make one observation about the Trump tariffs, then one reiteration of the best approach to the gold bullion
market, then done.
First up, the metals calls: and overall, our calls were close enough to the way the week panned out, here’s
what we said last week and the changes if required
 Gold and gold stocks: This time last week happy holder, this week happy holder. A remarkable
week for gold and the gold mining stocks, the rare window of advantage showed to full effect last week
and the rally’s speed and strength is the only thing I got wrong.
 Silver and silver stocks. This time last week hosed, this week happier holder. Silver did okay,
silver stocks shone like the finest diamonds and rebounded even better than the gold stocks (e.g. ABRA
and AAG below, fine moves). We’re not out of the woods yet and silver’s notorious volatility could come
back to bite us at any moment. The gold/silver ratio is now at 100/1 (give or take) and that’s
unsustainably high, so either silver has to rally or gold has to drop (or both), so if the “keep dancing”
advice holds (see below), silver and its stocks should give us more upside.
 Copper and copper stocks. Last week the place to lighten exposure if required, this week
happier holder. The 90 day tariff suspension news helped change my attitude toward copper, it’s still
not the #1 place to be (that’s gold) but there’s now less pressure on the metal. Expect copper to
inversely correlate with the moves in the US Dollar, which means we’re behest to the winds of the bonds
market. Not an easy place to call, but better than last weekend.
Bottom line: Gold stocks are still the place to be and by the looks of the way the Tier 1 and Tier 2 goldies
traded last week (see the Producer Basket), this rally has legs.
Second up, a more general thought or two on the Trump Tariffs scene and my main takeaway from last week
was that Trump is in total charge of the narrative and is playing the market, even the world, like a fiddle.
Exhibit One, the new development in the tariff tiff between The USA and China after the bell on Friday
evening, here’s how Bloomie delivered the news Saturday morning (8):
President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-
called reciprocal tariffs, potentially cushioning consumers from sticker shock while benefiting electronics giants
including Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co.
The exclusions, published late Friday by US Customs and Border Protection, narrow the scope of the levies by
excluding the products from Trump’s 125% China tariff and his baseline 10% global tariff on nearly all other
countries.
The exclusions would apply to smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives and computer processors and memory
chips.
The report continues, but we’re not doing all the details because I’m not planning on a new career as a
semiconductor or tech sector expert (I have enough problems remembering how to turn the alarm off on my
phone). The lesson here is more general and more important, because there’s no way the above message
was coincidentally timed to drop after market close on Friday, as Trump&Co knew it would get the market
drooling over the Monday open all weekend. He drove the narrative all weekend then, come Sunday evening,
dropped “there’s no change in the tariff policy” and “we have new semiconductor tariff plans out laster this
week”, stealing the punchbowl away again just hours before markets open. We’ve had plenty of examples of
how Trump & Co have driven and controlled the narrative, the above is only the latest (and indeed one of the
best, he may try to hide his ignorance on some subjects, but Trump is second to none on how the capitalist
mind works and knows how to press the Fear and Greed buttons to get the world dancing around him. As
2

long as the world is hanging on his next word, deed or executive order he has the whip hand in this battle
and my holy stars, he knows it. Of course he needs to represent that tariffs are permanent in nature (how
does he convince companies to up sticks and embark on multi-year projects to build factories in The USA
otherwise?), but that’s pure façade. Trump is a dealmaker, his plan is purely transactional and once he gets
deals on the table from world counterparties, be they the EU, the UK, or any one of the 70 or so countries
that the US Secretary of State Rubio claims are now forming an orderly queue to get a deal done with the
world’s biggest consumer nation, he’ll get those deals done and claim each one as a victory for The USA. For
sure there will be enough meat on them to show moderate advantage for The USA, but nothing close to
closing the international trade imbalances claimed by the Trump administration. But that’s okay, because we
all know Trump’s team made those trade balance numbers up, Trump very much included in the group,
therefore the exit is simplicity itself: If they’re brass necked enough to lie about the reasons to slap tariffs on,
they’ll do the same on the way out without missing a beat. The other thing we learned about the Trump
Tariff strategy last week is that Trump cares a lot more about liquidity than equity, and quite right too.
Equities will continue to remain volatile, but the moment came under pressure last week Trump played one of
his market friendly narrative cards (the 90 day tariff suspension ) and we were back at the races. That’s
something we should keep in mind as this game plays out, Trump’s looking to remain in charge by keeping
the world guessing, but he’s not about to collapse the market and has the tools at his disposal to cause 2,700
point Dow rallies. The final thing we learned is that the endgame includes getting the Fed to lower base rates
(and if that’s not bullish for gold considering the other moving parts to this market, nothing is.
Our third and final thought to wrap up this intro section is on the price of gold, because after the run it put in
last week…
…and then when the market heard Trump was allowing the cellphone exemption, we got another round of
gold top-pickers hitting the airwaves and at a first level, I do see the logic. All anyone needs to do is dial up a
long-term gold chart…
…to witness the near-parabolic rise in the price of gold and its acceleration into 2025. Students of the market
learn early that parabolic moves never hold, they form a spike and the downside is as violent as the upside,
so no matter what the vehicle might be, calling a top in “that chart” isn’t that controversial a call. However,
now is not the time to sell gold, or lighten gold exposure, or cover your trades in the miners, now is the time
to do the same thing we’ve done for the past few weeks and keep dancing until the music stops. Gold’s run
3

may come to an end tomorrow, it may be next month, it may be next year or it could even surprise us all and
consolidate at a new high level, dragging producers up rather than whacking them with a descent. Everyone
applauded Nouriel Roubini for calling the GFC in 2008, I remember how much money he left on the table in
2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 with exactly the same call. Everyone applauded Rick Rule in 2023 when
uranium shot to U$90/lb, I remember how he made the same bullish prediction every year for a decade after
Fukushima. People calling a top in gold today will eventually be right, they may even be able to build a
marketing legend around their prescience afterward. Personally, I’d rather be right five times and wrong once
than wrong five times and right once, especially when it’s my money on the line. Keep dancing folks, the
music is still playing loud and the dance floor has all the attractive partners you’ll ever need.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying Lumina Gold (LUM.v)
dictum meum pactum
(trad anon)
The permutations and possible futures resulting from the Ecuador run-off election vote, held today Sunday
April 13th, were considered in our main op-ed on the subject in IKN828 two weeks ago “Ecuador: A trading
strategy”. This note today is brief and meant as a heads-up to the trade decision from tonight’s preliminary
result (which will certainly become official soon). It’s also one of two comments on the Noboa victory today,
with the political angles considered in the headline note in Regional Politics, below. Here we’re focused on
trades and companies and to lay out the strategy, here’s one of the closing paragraphs from the IKN828
note:
“If Noboa wins I buy Lumina Gold (LUM.v) the next day, it’s that simple. For sure I won’t get the cheapest price, but
that won’t matter because it would all-but guarantee the Cangrejos project were permitted, funded and built.
Another on the potential shopping list is SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L), which would get a massive boost from the
news. However, be clear that if Noboa wins all mining stocks exposed to Ecuador would move significantly higher no
matter which bucket I put them in above. For example, we could still debate the future of the Warintza project and
whether it ever gets built, but there’s no doubt Solaris would find its Chinese buyer given this sort of national political
green light.”
Therefore, I am buying LUM.v this coming week and while the entry price may not be optimum after the run
it enjoyed on Friday (crazy things happen on crazy days), it’s the right thing to do. However, you get no big
“this is why LUM” today, for that I refer you to previous editions:
 Lumina Gold (LUM.v) got its first 2025 mention on these pages in IKN816 dated January 5th, one
of the target companies in strategy note “Ecuador is a buy”
 Then came the main analysis of the company in IKN821 dated February 9th, “An overview of
Lumina Gold (LUM.v)”
 IKN823 dated February 23rd in the Market Watching note “Lumina Gold (LUM.v): Adding to the
Watch List”
Those notes, in particular the IKN821 analysis, lay out the specific company reasons why I’m a buyer of LUM.
The missing piece was this election result and with Noboa now set to retain the presidency, we have a pro-
business, pro-mining government instead of one that would have placed the mining sector under a
moratorium. However and as stated in the chosen paragraph of IKN828 above, LUM isn’t the only option
available this coming week, I wasn’t joking when writing “…if Noboa wins all mining stocks exposed to
Ecuador would move significantly higher”. Feel free to take your pick in the near-term, but if you want my
opinion (and if you don’t you’re getting it anyway), some Ecuador-exposed stocks are better than others. I
would choose from:
 Lumina Gold (LUM.v): Natch, see above
 Salazar Resources (SRL.v): Natch, see below in Stock to Follow and I own it for good reasons.
It’s a smaller cap stock so all the usual caveats apply, but its minority ownership of Curipamba/El
Domo is now a very valuable asset (even taking into account the small print of its deal with
Adventus, now in the hands of Silvercorp) and that has always stood it in good stead, giving it
4

good upside potential with minimal downside risk. If I weren’t a buyer of LUM this week I’d
deploy by adding more SRL.v, definitely one to consider
 SolGold (SOLG.L) (SOLG.to): Not only will it benefit from the Noboa win, but SOLG has seen very
weak teading action in recent days and is set to bounce off a very low level, as seen right in this
chart of its main London ticker. Copper might not be metal flavour of the month, but that will
change and even if SOLG jumps 50% at the bell, you’re getting a great bargain and a better
price than the Chinese paid.
You may disagree and prefer Atico Mining (ATY.v), Lundon Gold (LUG.to), Solaris Resources (SLS.to) or any
number of others and in the near-term, you won’t get much pushback from me because as stated, Ecuador is
a blanket buy on the Noboa victory. It is good to bring this detailed coverage to an end, mind you. Wishing
Daniel Noboa the best of fortune in his repeat mandate, for the good of his country.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 1q25 production numbers
Preamble: On Wednesday April 9th, our #1 copper trade Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) (ARREF) announced its
1q25 production results, as well as a smattering of other preliminary data for the quarter before it files its
official numbers on Monday, May 5th. Instead of shuffling its numbers off to the Market Watching section due
to having run these quarterly reviews many times before, this edition puts the company where it belong in
this edition, the headline act, and there are a couple of reasons to do so. For one, the ARG 1q25 headline
numbers were below those of recent quarters so we’re going to take time to explain why that’s not a problem
and in fact, there’s plenty of reason to expect these production and sales numbers to generate a strong 1q25
earnings report. More generally, it’s deceptively easy to take a solid and regular performer such as ARG for
granted;: its tailings reprocessing business isn’t the sexiest in mining, it’s a predictable quarter over quarter
performer, it makes good profits without ever blowing the doors off any given quarter and all those are ways
to lull the average junior mining investor to sleep. Speculators will frequent our sub-sector of capital markets
for excitement, high grade discovery stories and multi-bagger success stories, not for a staid producer re-
processing somebody else’s low grade waste and turning it into regular profits. So today’s fundies section is a
celebration of predictability and reliability, applause for a company that does exactly what it says it will do
and then returns a large percentage of its margins directly to the people who own the company, i.e.
shareholders like me, and hopefully you. So let’s get on with it.
We begin not with the production numbers, instead we check out the latest on the share count at ARG
because one of the lines buried in the second page of last week’s NR (2) was this:
“In Q1-2025, Amerigo returned $4.6 million to shareholders, $3.5 million through the quarterly dividend and $1.1
million through share buybacks.”
Those numbers are in ARG.to’s reporting currency of USD, rather than the CAD in which its shares tend to
trade. We knew about the 3c/share quarterly dividend, that was U$3.483m, but a check of the dedicated
share buyback page on its website (3) confirms the following:
 January 2025: No buybacks
 February 2025: 62,309 shares bought back at an average price of C$1.81
 March 2025: 777,390 shares bought back at an average of C$1.88
That’s a significant acceleration of buybacks and the math tells us the total purchases in 1q25 cost the
company C$1.574m, that’s right in the ballpark of the U$1.1m seen above. We also note that ARG continued
to buy back shares this month April 2025, with 281,436
shares bought back between April 1st and April 8th,
ARG.to: Shares Out
when the 1q25 blackout period began. The company can (NB: cut down Y-axis)
resume buyback purchases as from May 8th and if the
new policy is here to last, we can expect more
purchases in May and June. Anyway, we now estimate
the shares out total at 163.9m as at end 1q25 and that
could drop as low as 162m come the end of Q2 (chart
right with abridged Y-axis).
5
9.361
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

We now move to the preliminary 1q25 production results, starting with the headline, copper production of
13.23m lbs (and 0.24m lbs moly, no chart), split into 7.97m lbs from the fresh tailing supply from the El
Teniente (DET) mine and 5.26m lbs from the re-processing historic Cauquenes tailings.
ARG: Production breakdown by source, per qtr
6
74.8
30.7
16.7
73.7
73.7
26.8
46.7
62.9
68.6
16.9
97.5
31.9
73.7
36.8
52.6
63.01
83.6
41.01
48.4
97.8
19.2
12.8
86.7
96.8
54.7
55.8
5
89.8
88.4
93.11
45.5
77.21
62.5
79.7
20
18
16
14
12
10
8 6 4
2
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
Mlb Cu
Cauquenes tailings
Fresh tailings
source: company filings
That’s plenty lower than the recent quarters out of ARG and, ARG.to: Copper sales
as this next chart of sales shows (right), shipments of
copper at 12.92m lbs for the quarter were a whopping
5.32m lbs lower than the previous quarter or if you prefer,
nearly 3m lbs lower than the same quarter in 2024. However that’s okay, as this year the two week annual maintenance
shutdown at MVC fell in 1q25 (last year it was 2q25), done
to coincide with the annual maintenance shutdown at the
DET mine in order to minimize disruption. That made the
normal 90 or 91 day production quarter into a 77 day
quarter, or in the words of ARG in its NR last week…
During Q1-2025, MVC completed its annual plant maintenance shutdown. Every year, this maintenance shutdown
generates the Company’s lowest production quarter, which is factored into the Company’s annual production
guidance. Following this year’s successful maintenance operations, the 2025 annual production guidance of 62.9
M lbs of copper and 1.3 M lbs of molybdenum remains in place.
…everything is on track. The 13.23m lb production number was slightly lower than our estimate, but as we
know ARG at MVC is now capable of full production quarters easily above 16m lbs Cu and as high as 18m lbs,
there’s every reason to believe that ARG won’t simply meet its annual guidance, but it will do what it nearly
always does and beat it comfortably.
We now turn our attention away from metal movements and toward US Dollars, starting with the reported
provisional copper price of U$4.42/lb (below left). That’s good news for the financials when they show up in
May, as for one thing the higher average means the U$57.1m gross value of the lower shipment amount
(below right) isn’t far off the numbers we’re used to seeing…
…but more importantly, it brings an estimated +$6.5m fair value adjustment to the 1q25 sales figures (as
previous shipments are settled at the higher copper price, improving estimated sales as booked in the
previous quarter). We’re unlikely to get the fair value adjustment exactly correct, but U$6.5m won’t be far
out and that brings the total copper revenues estimate to U$63.6m.
11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 68.41 81.61 97.61 94.61 966.31 779.01 80.61 169.51 33.41 84.61 42.81
29.21
20
18
16
14
12
10 8
6
4
2
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
1.85 6.66 0.27 6.27 8.37 7.36 8.65 1.16 8.66 8.25
6.14
5.95 3.16 0.36 8.86 9.57 1.75
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
ARG: Average Cu price for MVC U$m
(NB: Cut-down y-axis)
source: company filings, IKN ests
80.4
44.4 32.4 23.4 46.4
01.4
05.3
08.3 20.4
08.3
67.3 28.3 79.3
93.4 22.4
60.4
24.4
4.75
4.5
4.25
4 3.75
3.5
3.25
3
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
U$/lb Cu
source: Company data/IKN ests

ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
7
897.66 271.07 846.25 908.25 882.94
630.23
855.14 51.14
923.03
5.95 591.16
844.24
582.16 8.26 129.44 379.26 448.96
206.15
397.86 1.66
4.54
519.57
63.37
8.05
1.75 6.36
56.64
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
U$m
Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
From there, we subtract costs incurring by the DET royalty, smelting, refining and transport (below left), with
the main one being the DET royalty. That’s on a sliding scale depending on the copper price at any given
moment and our best guess this quarter is that ARG paid the owner of its supply material U$16.4m in the
quarter. The final job is to add back revenues from the moly credit metal and that one can be tricky, as
shipment timing around quarter ends can skew payments from quarter to quarter. It’s been fairly predictable
for the last few quarters and ARG in its NR noted the average price for moly hadn’t changed much during the
quarter, so I’m reasonably confident the U$4.6m guesstimate is close but won’t be shocked if some-or-other
number is reported.
Once that’s done, we get to the U$46.65m estimated total revenues as seen in the chart above, or if you
prefer, despite two fewer weeks’ of production we expect ARG posts a higher top line revenue in its P+L
compared to 1q24. And on that subject…
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
846.25 874.31 630.23
503.3-
923.03
420.2-
744.24 200.6 129.44 508.7 206.15 394.61 834.54 573.7 218.05 837.31
7.64
7.21
60
55
50
45
40
35
30 25 20
15
10
5
0
-5
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
U$m
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
source: company filings
…top line revenues in the P+L chart. We round up the top line revenues estimate to U$46.7m, we estimate
the costs total at U$34m and that gives a gross profit of U$12.7m. From there, ARG doesn’t put much friction
between gross and operating profits, then tax is the only deduction to get us to the net profit. As we expect
1q25 to be fairly clean BTL, our estimate is for operating profits of U$11.5m and net profit of U$7m, or
around 6c Canadian per share.
626.51 834.81 799.31 336.01 477.51 86.61 674.81 361.91 450.12 4.61
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
Transport ARG: Mo credits
smelting/refining
U$m DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
930.8
958.2 85.4 478.3 454.5 993.6 142.5 267.5 6.4
9
8
7
6
5
4 3 2
1
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
8
44.31
72.3-
72.6-
19.3
84.6
07.51
0.7
2.51
05.11
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
When it comes to costs on the ARG P+L, we normally
keep the narrative uncluttered simple and show this ARG.to: Costs breakdown
chart, which adds the small G&A, royalty and “other”
adjustments to the monolithic “COGS” line item (chart
right). But today we take a peek behind the cost curtain,
this chart (below) showing how the totals to 4q24 were
built. The main COGS item is power, which accounts for around 40% of direct tolling and production costs and
around 28% of total COGS. Other items are run of mill
(pardon the pun) for a metals producer, e.g. labour,
maintenance, supplies (grind, lime, reagents) etc.
However, please also note that ARG includes the non-
cash DD&A in its COGS total, that averaged over
U$5.8m/qtr in 2024 and is one of the key differences
between the GAAP P+L ledger and the metric that really matters at ARG, its cash flow.
U$m ARG: COGS breakdown
DET Mo royal
45
admin
40
DD&A
35
other
30 lime
25 Mo prod cost
20 tailings extract
15 grind media
10 Maintenance
direct labour
5
power
0
1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24
source: company filings
That's why we run this chart (right), the "real world
margin" chart which saw 4q24 come in at over
U$21m. That's a lot of money, the good news here is
that we also estimate the real world margin at
U$16.7m for 1q25, or U$0.10/share, or CAD$0.145 if
you prefer. That U$16.7m is how ARG can afford to
pay U$3.5m in divis, U$1.1m in buybacks, spend
U$6.2m on capex items (over 50% of the 2025 capex
budget now accounted) and keep treasury at U$27.7m
We’re going to wrap this look at the ARG Q1 early
numbers here, come the day of its filing we can add
balance sheet items and consider what CEO Davidson and her team has to say about the rest of 2025 in the
ConfCall (set for May 8th). The bottom line to ARG 1q25 as seen last week is that despite the low production
number due to foreseen and legitimate reasons, it’s going to return a decent set of financial numbers and
933.23 869.13 414.43 800.14 71.93 143.53 353.23 544.63 611.73 901.53 360.83 470.73 43
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25 20
15
10
5
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
U$m
other
G&A+roy
COGS
source: company data, IKN ests
ARG: The real world margin
61.0- 30.1 33.21
97.71
24.02
93.22 79.61 15.22
49.52
95.3 20.0-
57.51
4.81
8.1 80.1- 41.9 52.21
25.12 88.21 70.12 07.61
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests

strong earnings, all in what is almost certainly the worst quarter in 2025. Along with welcome development of
newly aggressive share buybacks, ARG looks set to impress this year.
Stocks to Follow
After last week’s pain, this week’s gain. There were three stocks that lost ground last week (MARI.to,
SURG.v, MENE.v) and four others were unchanged (ARG.to, PGZ.v, MIRL.cse, PGDC.v) so it wasn’t unalloyed
success out there (and four of those seven are copper stocks, you may have noticed) but it does mean 13
out of 20 were winners and that’s a good haul. Even better when we consider just how many returned double
figure percentage gains, so from the top we have (breathe in) Provenance Gold (PAU.cse up 40.3%),
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v up 32.5%), Latin Metals (LMS.v up 31.6%), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v up 30.0%),
Orecap Inv (OCI.v up 25.0%), Eldorado Gold (EGO up 19.7%), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v up 19.4&), AbraSilver
(ABRA.to up 19.1%), Gold Royalty Corp (GROY up 17.8%), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 16.9%), Lumina Gold (LUM.v
up 16.4%), Minera Alamos (MAI.v up 14.3%) and Salazar Resources (SRL.v up 13.3%) (breathe out), a list of
13 stocks with out-sized wins on the week. Cannot complain.
With the addition of Latin Metals (LMS.v) to the Watch List and the eventual decision not to dump the two
probable sales last week (IPT.v and PGZ.v), we now have 20 open positions on our Stocks to Follow list,
that’s the self-imposed maximum number. After last week’s road bump we’re back to a positive count with
15 positions in the green and five in the red. That’s junior mining for you, this sector can and will turn on a
sixpence.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.36 71.4% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.90 12.5% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$19.34 21.4% Added Feb'25, cheaply valued
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.70 10.4% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.35 42.6% Quality Cu dev, FS due
AbraSilver ABRA.to STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$3.06 12.1% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$1.52 8.6% Mispriced, great entry point
Aftermath Silver AAG.v spec buy $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.55 29.4% #2 silver trade
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan25 C$0.085 6.3% Ecuador elex/buyout trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.13 18.2% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v spec buy $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.095 -9.5% bulk copper in good address
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SELLING C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.105 -44.7% Cu jr, some recovery recently
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.075 25.0% top fundy value, illiquid
9

SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SELLING C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.20 -33.3% Silver spec, done nothing
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Lumina Gold LUM.v WATCH C$0.63 23-Feb-25 C$0.71 12.7% Ecuador gold developer
Latin Metals LMS.v WATCH C$0.095 6-Apr-25 C$0.125 31.6% proj.generator, newsflow soon
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.035 75.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.235 176.5% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.13 -71.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies, but no need to suffer too much because most stocks
dropped for exactly the same reason.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): STILL PLANNING TO SELL.
Basically the same message here and for PGZ.v, above. The
week started with the entire market dipping on Monday, I
sat on my hands Tuesday and then when the atmosphere
turned on Wednesday, there was no need to take the first
price available. Come Friday and the sector-wide rally,
holding through the week became the obvious decision. It
makes my intentions as published last weekend look a little
silly (and you may accuse me of “things” if you like), but the
decisions on IPR and PGZ both came with the word
“probably” and in this volatile market, a couple of trade
decisions on what are small positions and still both losers,
no matter what happened last week and what will happen in
the days to come.
The idea to sell this loser (and PGZ, see below) is still in
place and assuming the zoom higher next week finds a
plateau, I’ll do just that. No need to sell something for X
when there’s going to be people willing to pay X+1 in a few
days’ time.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): STILL PLANNING TO
SELL. Basically the same message here and for IPT.v,
above. The only difference is the way IPT and PGZ traded,
because IPT did well and rallied into Friday while PGZ was
totally ignored by the world and, as seen in the ten-day
chart (right), couldn’t even attract a bid over the last two
days.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. On the
list at 9.5c, the 12.5c Friday close flatters our pick at this
early stage as the volume that pushed it up on Friday was
somewhere between thin and mediocre and, as we’ve seen
on many occasions since tracking the stock on the TinyCaps
10

List, it only takes one seller to do the same to the downside as one buyer did to the upside. It’s on the Watch
List for good reasons, we went over them in some detail in last week’s main fundies section and nothing
happened between then and now to change the situation. Until it brings real news and becomes a stock that
can be accumulated by a reasonable and patient buyer (e.g. me) it’ll stay that way.
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): In the brief period of time I’ve been a holder of GROY stock, it has seen two
sharp down moves as seen on this 2025 YTD chart (right) and the second is far more understandable, logical
and forgivable than the first. GROY just spent three days banging about between U$1.30 and U$1.35 with a
spike down to U$1.23 first thing Monday morning as those that decided to panic last week got out (as
advised, don’t panic) and aside the first five minutes of trading last week I can at least understand why GROY
traded where it did, even if I don’t agree with the sellers.
Last week was highly volatile and more than enough to
wrack the nerves of holders unused to the cut and thrust of
the smaller mining companies, if people decided to put their
money somewhere else under those circumstances, then fair
enough and the simple fact they got it wrong as seen when
the market turned and rallied is beside the point.
However gap lower and dip under U$1.30 that greeted the
GROY 4q24 financial report was plain stupid, powered by
people who owned the stock but didn’t have the first clue
about what they owned. The volume psike that day to over
6m shares traded also spoke badly of people who trade by
chart or by financial headline metrics without bothering to take a look under the hood and understand what’s
really happening at the company. I said as much at the time in IKN827 and its main fundies note “Gold
Royalty Corp (GROY): Adding on a misunderstood Q4 earnings report” and I’m saying it again now, this is a
seriously undervalued company under today’s gold market circumstance and every trade registered on that
above YTD chart, up to and including the U$1.60 high, will look seriously cheap by the time 2025 is done.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to): Very happy with the way ABRA confirmed its “Buy The Dip”
credentials, those with the cash and risk tolerance who bought the lows could have easily made 20% in less
than a week. Impressive. And to its credit, ABRA continued with the fundy newsflow with two NRs last week,
first on Wednesday when announcing (4) it had chosen the respected engineering firm Worley to lead the
engineering work for its feasibility study (DFS) now
underway. We remind readers that in this case, ABRA is
plenty of reason to keep the foot on the accelerator for its
DFS, as it wants to be in the position to get everything done
and have the document in-hand by the middle of next year,
in order to raise the cash for its capex bill in time to qualify
for Argentina’s RIGI investment program.
Second up, ABRA announced Thursday (5) that it had saved
$150k by early paying the final installment for the Diablillos
project to its underlying owner, EMX Royalty (EMXX). The
final $7m payment was due at the end of 2q25, the parties
agreed to $6.85m paid now, this desk applauds the good
treasury management (and in passing, wonder why EMX was so keen on getting a larger chunk of change
this early…but that’s another story). Going higher.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): And if I was happy about
ABRA’s rally, the AAG.v move must be worth an extra
word and some celebration, because when ABRA topped
out and saw some profit-taking on Friday AAG powered
on, returning the best week-over-week gain of any of
my personal holdings last week (+32.5%) and as the
comparative chart to ABRA (right) shows, and
impressive +10% over these two highly volatile weeks.
11

The copper stocks (MARI.to) (SURG.v) (ARG.to) (PGZ.v): It’s no coincidence that, in an otherwise
great week for the Stocks to Follow list and the personal portfolio, of the seven underperformers as either
losers on unchanged no fewer than four are copper stocks. That said step forward and be counted Marimaca
Copper (MARI.to), Surge Copper (SURG.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) and Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v).
Be it for good or evil, our “Clear statements on tariffs, gold, copper and silver” intro of last week laid out why
we preferred gold over silver over copper exposure in this brave new tariff-driven world and sure enough, last
week’s action largely matched those scenarios as seen. That meant strong gains and/or rebounds in the PM
stocks but a more tepid reaction from copper trades and while The Copper Basket below does show that
some copper stocks did okay in the volatility, most were along the lines of our holdings. That’s the whole
story really, aside from making clear that I’m still a seller of PGZ and will hold thorugh in the other three but
as we’ve mentioned both ARG.to and PGZ.v above, a word on both SURG and MARI before moving on
wouldn’t go amiss.
 Regarding Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), as good as the fundamentals are in this stock (and they are), it’s
a tightly-held share structure that doesn’t trade much
volume, so even moderate panic selling hits it for
longer lengths of time than the average junior. It
wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see it flounder
around in the current C$4.50-or-so range for a while
longer before regaining enough momentum to move
back to a 5-handle, then again that’s only a guess and
it would need just one or two smart buyers who
understand the deep value on offer and how close we
are to important milestones (and the most likely exit,
a buyout) to push the share price back up there
quickly. I simply don’t know what happens in the
near-term here. What I do know is that my personal
shares are as hard-locked as the ones held by the
long-term insto holders and that MARI deserves all
the patience in the world. Just look at what it’s done in the last year compared to the GDX and to the
much-hyped “peer play” Hot Chili (HCH.v) in this chart.
 Regarding Surge Copper (SURG.v), its low grade and lack of market traction as a speculative vehicle
plays against it when copper drops the way it did (e.g. AE.v gets far more radar, despite being largely the
same type of animal). It’s a bit of a bummer to hold, but it’s not a big trade in hard cash terms (much
smaller than MARI.to) at the moment and the fundamental value will shine through eventually. It
probably needs copper to re-take U$4.50/lb or so (on the LME) to get back on the list of speculative
options for junior traders.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): Further to last week’s main feature, OCI rallied nicely last week and finished up 25%
but according to our liquid-ish assets tracking chart…
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.45 5.30 2.1
ARIC.v 7.39 0.495 3.66 1.5
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.295 1.23 0.5
XXIX.v 39.097 0.10 3.71 1.5
MERG.v 5.125 0.03 0.15 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.035 0.86 0.3
subtotal 14.92 6.0
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 16.12 6.5c
At 247.714 S/O
…that only means the stock is a penny above the value of its basic third-party shareholdings plus cash. Which
means in turn that everything else it owns, including the McGarry property as seen last week, is being valued
at a penny per share, or C$2.5m. If you want to be generous and note how OCI used to run a negqtive arb
12

of between 10% and 20% to table as seen above, we could in theory suppose OCI’s land holdings are getting
valued at 2c/share, or C45m rounding up. That’s still ridiculously cheap compared to the obvious value
McGarry has for its newly invigorated neighbours at Gold Candle, worth C$350m as a privco and surely more
than that when Lucky Pierre takes his new company public.
Be clear; this is now a dirt cheap stock and a great way to get good, leveraged exposure to multiple exciting
mining stories with very little downside risk.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): Also happy with the
price ramp in RPX on Friday and while volume improved
with the rise, the 611k shares traded isn’t more than
U$50k. RPX needs to attract more attention to break out
of the the tight trading range it’s run since CEO Michaud
took over and that’s only going to happen with significant
newsflow. The drills have been turning at Wawa all year,
we’ve already had promising results from the deeper
targets, more of the same and a better explanation as to
where the program is going would be welcome.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): This week RIO.v put in an impeccable
market performance, as seen on this ten-day chart. Once Monday did its job, the stock was bought and
bought again all week and its 90c Friday close was a well-deserved bonus for holders, all on accumulative
volume. At some point the real re-rate will kick in and when it does, you’ll be glad to own this.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): The other Top Pick stock performed equally as well, which was more of a surprise
to this desk, however pleasant. The most likeable part of last
week’s story is noted in red on the chart (right), as a couple of
days of 2m+ traded volume drove the stock to within a penny
of its best close since October.
Yes, it’s underperforming. Yes, it needs some news on
permits. Yes, we like the Sabre Gold deal but there’s work to
be done before that allows the stock to re-rate. However,
what last week showed is that there are more people than just
your obstinate author who recognize the deep value on offer
in this stock and what it can achieve once the logjam is
cleared.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): A final bit of portfolio horn-tooting and rah rah before moving on, I couldn’t be more
pleased with the way EGO has risen to the task over the last couple of weeks and out-performed even the
high-flying GDX, driven by the eye-popping moves in the Tier 1 stocks (e.g. take a look at what NEM did last
week via the Producer Basket…wow). EGO has shaken off the negative vibes it picked up in January and
13

February when the market punished the price way too much for Q4 numbers that weren’t that bad and I’m
glad I stood my ground and banged on the table about the value on offer. Do you remember the main
fundies note in IKN823 dated February 23rd, entitled “Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) and its 4q24: Making a
stand”? I do, because it was the weekend before I added more EGO and it’s when I explained why, too.
Here’s how that note ended:
“It’s been frustrating to stare at obvious value in the EGO model and then watch as the market tries to tell me
I’m wrong, but last week was the last straw. EGO is compellingly cheap and, capex hike at Skouries aside, is
delivering on all fronts. With Skouries covered and the new plan acceptable considering all factors, selling
would be a serious error and therefore, the way forward is to buy at any price under U$15. I’m adding this
week because the math is clear and it’s time to make a stand. The market is wrong about Eldorado Gold
(EGO) and I will profit from that mis-read.”
EGO is up 44% from the day I wrote those words. Told you the market was wrong. Told you, darnit.
The Copper Basket
After fifteen weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 7.86% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 590.87 2.15 50.3%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 360.13 0.12 -7.7%
3 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 329.85 2.05 24.2%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 312.64 1.84 -3.2%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 148.409 292.37 1.97 34.0%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 254.30 2.04 -0.5%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 151.95 0.74 0.0%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 134.30 0.53 -3.6%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 75.35 0.45 -34.8%
10 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 59.81 0.395 -41.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 38.35 0.32 -49.2%
12 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 172.61 25.89 0.15 -6.3%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 24.51 0.095 -13.6%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 74.78 15.33 0.205 -34.9%
15 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 14.38 0.41 -31.7%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -7.86%
After the shellacking of week fourteen, The Copper Basket managed to bounce back by just under 3% and in
general terms, put in a good performance. However, it was 15 losers out of 15 last weekend and just nine
winners (ATX.v, SOLG.to, ALDE.v, ASCU.to, BIG.v, AE.v, XXIX.v, LBC.v, PM.cse) this week, with one
unchanged stock (TMQ.to) and five losers (REG.v, FDY.to, HCH.v, ECU.v, KBX.cse) so the reaction was far
from equal and opposite. We didn’t get the same sized moves either, with just two winners in double figure
14

percentage territory. Applause due to Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 14.3%) and Libero (LBC.v up 13.9%), with
gallant bronze medalist American Eagle (AE.v up
9.8%) worthy of mention, but those moves don’t
compare to the eleven double figure losers of the
week before last. There’s still damage left to be
undone.
Copper-The-Metal recovered and drove the miners
higher, with the lows put in on Tuesday and from
that point, a rally of around 10% on the Comex. The
two-month chart shows that, give or take, the
Comex near-dated futures contract is back to where
it was before the serious copper tariff hype began,
with some arbitrage to LME baked in but not the
“25% going on anytime now!” levels we saw a
couple of weeks ago.
Statement: In this market, a couple of weeks is an eternity.
As for the size of the rally in copper, it depends which exchange you’re looking at because while Comex
added a net 12c/lb on the week, the equivalent LME contract added 15c/lb as the assumption of copper
tariffs coming soon faded and bulk physical metal started to arrive in The USA (see the inventory segment
below). The two charts I cooked up in IKN828 are now into their third week and it’s probably the last and the
tracking arbitrage chart below right shows how Peak Tariff has now passed Dr. Copper by.
Price difference between
LME and Comex copper contracts
As for the carefully curated copper commentary cuts for the week, the main price driver was undoubtedly the
weakness in the USD. Not only did the DXY index drop under 100, but the way in which it has freefalled from
its 110+ reading of just two months is a direct result of the bonds market volatility (and probably the root
cause for Trump to tone down the tariff measures…or at least the rhetoric). The long-term chart (right)
shows that DXY has dipped under the 100 line just three times since its Fed-induced rally of 2022 and if the
line holds this time nerves will subside, but any lower and you’ll hear it from every side, including the US
admin which will find a way to bolster King Dollar. However,
a soft dollar doesn’t necessarily mean higher copper prices,
for that we need buyers to step up and according to the
boss of Chile’s Codelco, that is happening all right (6):
SANTIAGO, April 10 (Reuters) - Chilean copper giant Codelco is
seeing strong demand for the red metal from China in the second
quarter, the firm's chairman told Reuters on Thursday.
"We're seeing really strong demand from China in this second
quarter," Codelco chairman Maximo Pacheco said on the
sidelines of the CRU copper conference in Santiago. "China is
buying at these prices."
There’s more news and opinions from last week’s big
CESCO/CRU copper conference in Regional Politics below,
for us in the Copper Basket section it’s time for the weekly check on copper inventory movements around the
world, data as usual from those reliable Chilean beancounters at Cochilco:
15
61.4 5.4 71.4 25.4 51.4 06.4 61.4 66.4
U$/lb LME Arb between Comex and LME
Comex 6.00 contracts, weekly change
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Cash 2mo 4mo 6mo
source: Comex, LME
10.01 69.21 64.51 63.9 70.8 03.01 33.31 55.51 85.11 04.8 48.01 62.41 55.61 13.21 08.01 79.11 73.51 82.71 29.21 41.21
% March 16th March 23rd
22 march 30th April 6th
20 April 13th
18
16
14
12
10 8 6
4
2
0
Cash 2mo 4mo 6mo
source: Comex, LME, IKN calcs

 Another big drop in aggregate inventories to report, as the seasonally normal draw down
continues. Overall stocks in the three official systems dropped by 33,506 metric tonnes (mt), with
the grand total dipping under 500kmt for the first time this Chinese year, closing at 497,975mt.
 A big chunk of metal left the Shanghai SHFE stocks, with a net draw down of 42,795mt recorded
on the week giving a total under roof of 182,941mt. See below for the dedicated SHFE chart and
what that implies for Asia coast stocks.
 And once , the LME went to the same party, with a net loss of 2,025mt on its copper stocks on the
week and under the headline number, 3,825mt leaving its Asia warehouses and 1,800mt added to
Euopean warehouse inventory. The LME is now down 62,625mt in copper stocks on the year.
 We mentioned the start of this dynamic last week, it was confirmed this week as Coemx saw net
additions of 11,314mt to its copper stocks, now over the 100k line at 106,259mt. We know copper
traders have been importing physical stocks into The USA in order to pre-empt any Trump Tariff on
the metal and while copper has to date avoided the tax, there’s plenty of reason for traders to use
the arbitrage it has created. Copper is now arriving and Comex should see this trend of higher
stocks continue for as long as uncertainty continues.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows the acceleration of the drop, we’re in 2023 again and if so, it implies the
third and fourth quarters of this year with little wriggle room for end users.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on some basket stocks:
Libero Copper (LBC.v): In which LBC casually increases its share count by 17.3m shares (7). On March
25th, LBC announced a “sweetener warrant” plan, allowing anyone who made whole their outstanding 20c
warrants before the middle of April to get a new full warrant priced at 30c. The sponsor of the deal was
Frank Giustra, the plan 7.729m warrants turned into shares and Frank Giustra now owns 13.1% of the total
shares out. Then in the same NR, LBC announces its ATM equity program quietly sold 10m new shares into
the market during Q1. As a result, LBC has (or more pointedly "had") an extra C$3.5m to throw into the
ground at Mocoa and shares out are now at 74.78m, some 26.3m more than the number published by LBC
on its website this weekend. At some point they'll update the number…probably.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): While watching ALDE hit C$1.41 at the open on Monday, then dip back
under the $1.50 line the next day, I asked myself at what price
I’d consider a re-buy in ALDE and the answer was “under a
Loonie”. If that sounds way too low to you, I’d agree with you
this weekend but, in the midst of the volatility and market battle
last week, the question was less about a true value price for a
purchase but at what price “cheap” moves through “very cheap”,
past “no-brainer cheap” and into “absolutely crazy world has
gone clinically insane cheap”. Because that’s what happens from
time to time in the stock market and last week, for a few fleeting
hours, had the look of one of those moments. ALDE proceeded
to rally and that’s fair enough, it certainly didn’t deserve to
dump under the C$1.50 line but that’s another subject, fair value

sometimes takes a backseat in unfair times
Element 29 (ECU.v): News last week from Peru is that ECU is getting serious about its Elida project in the
North of the country, as it filed a permit application for a six year exploration and drilling program that
envisages 115 drill platforms on the project, including 92 new platform locations (along with 20 requiring
permit modification and three already fully permitted) (8). Just the construction and preparation phase of this
newly formed plan, with works including new platform construction, road access improvements and other
camp requirements will take eleven months to complete.
Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax): Don’t say I didn’t warn you:
Or if you prefer, here right is the last ten days of trading
compared to COPX. This desk has warned on the hidden costs and
poor economics of Costa Fuego for years and after dumping on its
PFS, then dumping further on news of how much its water supply
will cost, then dumping another 9.2% last week while the rest of
the serious copper stocks either recovered from their beatings or
rebounded sharply, it would seem the world now agrees with this
desk (and laughs at Rick Rule’s massive losses). This stock is
unlikely to be a member of the 2026 Copper Basket.
The Producer Basket
After 15 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 38.72% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1127 61.95 54.97 47.7%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 58.59 117.65 50.4%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 35.99 20.59 32.8%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 31.94 166.25 41.4%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 4.25 3.24 32.8%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 3.96 19.34 30.1%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.82 3.57 44.0%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 2.46 4.96 24.6%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 2.35 7.93 42.1%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 1.90 12.69 41.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 38.72%
17

Whacked last week, back with a vengeance this week, we saw ten winners out of ten stocks on our Precious
Metals Producer basket and quite right too, not often do you see gold bullion improve by 6.5% week-over
week and the sector benchmark ETFs GDX and GDXJ both up an eye-popping 19.2% on the week, It might
have taken a massive system shock and should have happens many moons ago, but there’s finally real
interest among generalist money in mining stocks. Winners beget winners and, as one of the few sectors to
benefit from the newly volatile macro scenario, the Tier 1 and Tier 2 producers were all the rage.
All ten of our basket component stocks were winners on the week, but that’s just the start of the good news,
as the worst of the lot recorded a double figure percentage win, OceanaGold (OGC.to up 11.7%). Atr the top
of the pile is none other than Newmont (NEM), as the world’s biggest gold miner by market cap moved up a
staggering 24.4% on the week. Other Tier 1 magnets were Agnico (AEM up 18.3%), Barrick (GOLD up
16.5%) and Franco-Nevada (FNV up 14.6%) and when the biggest names in the world of the gold miner
move up in this way, it can only mean that large amounts of fresh insto money have decided that gold mining
companies are the place to be in this new, Trump-induced volatile world of capital markets. This desk
c2annot over-estimate the importance of what went on last week, it’s the move we’ve all been waiting for,
the moment when the outside world of business and finance pays attention to the PM miners, looks at their
numbers, realizes how cheap they are and, with gold now back as the world’s reserve currency of choice, the
result was as seen. Here’s a simple and direct statement to consider:
Expect more upside in gold miners in the days and weeks to come, this time really is different.
That’s the easiest call I’ll make this year. The only downside to last week’s outstanding action in the PM
producers was personal, as the wave of new money entering the sector was always going to favour the
largest of the large caps and not the Tier-2 biased picks in this year’s basket. That means we fell back behind
the GDX benchmark once again (and I blame Newmont), but that’s okay because if things go to plan (and
what could possibly go wrong?), the money in the biggest stocks will now rotate down through the market
cap sizes and that means the $1Bn to $5Bn market cappers will be next to out-perform.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND) (SSL.to): Tuesday evening saw SAND report its 1q25 sales, along with a limited
selection of other financial data from its quarter, we zero in on the two bits that matter from the NR (9)
starting with the Q1 metrics:
First Quarter Preliminary Results
During the three months ended March 31, 2025, the Company sold approximately 18,500 attributable gold
equivalent ounces1 and realized record preliminary revenue of $50.1 million (20,316 attributable gold
equivalent ounces and $42.8 million in revenue for the comparable period in 2024). The Company had record
preliminary total sales, royalties, and income from other interests of $54.1 million for the three months ended
March 31, 2025 ($42.8 million in total sales, royalties, and income from other interests for the comparable
period in 2024).
Preliminary cost of sales, excluding depletion for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $6.9 million
resulting in record cash operating margins of approximately $2,507 per attributable gold equivalent ounce
($5.7 million and $1,782 per attributable gold equivalent ounce for the comparable period in 2024,
respectively).
It all sounds very positive and for sure, the record gold price will allow SAND (and plenty of other companies)
to pepper their Q1 production literature with the word “record”. But for better context, here are a selection of
our tracking charts, starting with basic sales (below left). At an estimated 18,500 oz AuEq, it’s a slight
increase on the three most recent quarters that didn’t manage to break the 18k line, but we’re still
considerably lower than the levels reached in the two year period 1q22 to 1q24.
SAND: AuEq sales per qtr
18
59751 00471 40081 41551 68561 14781 67291 60622 35712 86382 00542 32112 05232 61302 41471 05371 00771 00581
30000
27500
25000
22500
20000
17500 15000 12500 10000
7500
5000
2500
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
AuEq Oz SAND: AuEq sales per million shares outstanding
source: company filings
64.98 83.29 94.08 45.68 05.79 72.001 07.08 97.27 87.59 27.28 23.17 05.87 02.86 54.85 42.85 36.95 57.26
110
100
90
80
70
60 50 40 30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
source: company filings, IKN calcs

The reported share buybacks and slightly improved AuEq sales also means the corporate efficiency reading of
sales per million shares is up slightly (above right), but again we have a ways to go before SAND gets back to
the type of return on capital it delivered previously.
SAND: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
19
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 52q4 62q1 62q2 62q3 62q4
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings
As for the notes on balance sheet items in the NR, the reported drop of the outstanding amount on the
revolver to U$340m implies total liabilities at around U$385m (above), ceteris paribus. That means the
revolver outstanding dropped by around U$15m instead of the U$30m we had in our model, but that brings
us to the second interesting bit from the NR:
Share Buybacks and Capital Allocation
During the first three months of 2025, Sandstorm purchased and cancelled approximately 3.1 million of the
Company's common shares (the "Common Shares") for total consideration of approximately $19.0 million. The
Company believes that, at times, the market price of the Common Shares is not fully reflective of their intrinsic
value, and repurchasing Common Shares under its normal course issuer bid represents a strategic use of
available capital compared to other investment opportunities. The Company will continue to assess its capital
allocation strategy with a focus on further share purchases and debt repayment, dependent on market
conditions. As at March 31, 2025, the outstanding balance on the Company's revolving credit facility was
approximately $340 million with an undrawn and available balance of $285 million.
This second segment noted the U$340 drawn on the revolver and share buybacks of 3.1m. That fits with our
estimate as seen two weeks ago in IKN828 which noted SAND had bought back around 2.6m shares in the
period since filing its 4q24 and YE financials in mid-February. SAND bought back aggressively, 3.1m returned
to treasury and extinguished in Q1 and, as we didn’t model any big share buybacks at the start of the year
the math makes sense:
 We assumed: SAND retires U$30m in revolver debt in Q1
 We now assume: SAND retired U$15m in revolver debt and used U$19m to buy back 3.1m shares
With the bonus prize of higher gold prices, that works out. We now estimate shares out at 293.1m (chart
below) though that count probably gets slight adjustment on May 6th, when SAND files its full financials.
SAND: Shares Out
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
Personally, I’d like to see the financial debt addressed before SAND started getting busy with buybacks, what
with the heavy interest service it’s been paying on that pile (over U$68m in the last two years), but that’s just
me and anyone who’s been in this game for a while knows how much the Wall St types like their NYSE-listed

stocks to run buybacks. As SAND is catering and marketing to that exact customer, it makes sense to see it
make more use of its NCIB facility with gold prices running high.
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to): Another of the interesting smaller-sized producers in the current
market, WDO also reported its Q1 last week but before that, we got M&A news from the company (10):
Under the terms of the Agreement, each of the issued and outstanding common shares of Angus that Wesdome
does not currently own will be exchanged for $0.62 cash plus 0.0096 of a Wesdome share (the “Offer”),
representing an aggregate value of $0.77 per Angus common share, based on the closing price of Wesdome’s
common shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange on April 4, 2025, the last trading day prior to announcement of
the Offer. The Offer represents a premium of 59% to Angus’ 20-day volume-weighted average price ending April
4, 2025. Wesdome currently owns 6.3 million common shares of Angus and 3.15 million common share purchase
warrants, or approximately 10.4% of Angus’ basic common shares outstanding and 14.9% on a partially diluted
basis. The enterprise value to Wesdome, net of Angus’s cash, is approximately $40 million.
It’s one of those deals that immediately makes sense, with WDO taking advantage of a prolonged low price
level in GUS to significantly expand its
landholdings in the zone around its Eagle
River mine, via acquisition of GUS.v’s Golden
Sky project map (right) from here (11), where
you can read more on the area play including
the already defined open pit resource held by
GUS which is similar to its own Mishi open pit
operation.
As for the price paid, on the WDO side the
most important takeaway is probably the last
line of the NR excerpt above, “The enterprise
value to Wesdome, net of Angus’s cash, is
approximately $40 million”, as it’s an overall
deal value that doesn’t make much of a dent
in a C$1.9Bn market capper. C$0m to that number isn’t
quite a rounding error, but it’s not far away. On the GUS
side of the ledger and as this price chart (right) shows,
anyone who bought in the last year and a half (or so) and
had the intestinal fortitude to hold through a very quiet
period of news, market action and volume is walking away
with a winner (so good for them), those who bought into
the original area play thesis before that not as much. We’ve
seen Alamos Gold (AGI) wait out rival in this zone as well
(pace Manitou and, of course, the car crash known as
Argonaut) and WDO seems to have gone the same route.
There’s no need for majors to pay what the “junior knows it
is worth” unless said junior moves well, executes on an
active plan and makes itself too good to ignore and on that thought, I’ll point out Red Pine Exploration is on
that map as well.
Moving on to the WDO 1q15 production results, they came Thursday morning (12) and here’s what the
tracking charts show:
WDO: Gold prod/qtr
20
2115
43391
4198
65771
8025
50471
4169
20552
7787
95102
7418
54822
9637
19302
44121
47042
3248
99842
36742
27291
12412
88632
56822
20762
39661
99982
55000
50000
45000 40000 35000
30000
25000 20000 15000
10000
5000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
Ozt Au Kiena WDO: Gold production vs sales, per qtr
Mishi
Eagle River
source: WDO filings
86382 00003 29903 00023 06772 00072 81263 02673 22333 00753 53044 00004 90154 00924 76594 00784 29654 00354
55000 50000
45000 40000 35000
30000 25000 20000 15000
10000
5000
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
Ozt Au
Production
Sales
source: company filings

Production of 16,693oz gold at Kiena was on the low side, production of 28,999 oz at Eagle River was
excellent and the second best quarter recorded in modern times at the mine. As a result, sales of 45,300 oz
are still the second best on record, but significantly lower than 4q24. Eagle UG was driven by solid tonnage
throughput of improved grade that averaged 15.6 g/t Au, the best since the “jewel box” era of the mine
around 2021 when it hit an exceptionally high grading zone and mined it out.
The issue in Q1, if there is one, is at Kiena which saw both lower tonnage to mill and average head grade.
That combo suggests grade control issues underground (and to dare an extra layer of conjecture, at the deep
zones where the new high grade rock is now being mined) and reading between the lines of the CEO
comment on Kiena…
“Underground mining activities in select areas of the South and North Limbs as well as Kiena Deep A2 Zone
are transitioning from a primarily long-hole mining method to a hybrid approach, combining cut-and-fill and
long-hole stoping. We are steadily ramping up this new approach, which is already delivering encouraging
results early in the second quarter and helping to drive more predictable performance.”
… WDO admitted as much. We’re sure to hear more on this when the company reports and any brokerage
analyst on the ConfCall worth their salt will be pressing for as much detail as possible. For our pleasure, it’ll
be worth keeping a close eye on operating costs at
Kiena when the Q1 numbers drop, for the time being
we’ll file this under “potential weak point” and be done.
CEO Bath also confirmed guidance for 2025, though in a
strict forward basis the 45k oz from Q1 only gets WDO
to the bottom end of its 190k – 210k guidance range.
The bottom line: Probably in-line, but we watch costs at
Kiena. In Q4, WDO reported net EPS of C$0.38 on sales
of at an average received price of C$3,756/oz and sales
of 48,700 oz gold. The Andrea Bath tenure doesn’t give
us a preliminary sales number or received price in its
production NR any longer, but if we guesstimate received price at a 1q25 average of C$4,100/oz, the
45,300oz sol imply top line revenues of just under C$186m.
WDO.to: Revenues
21
2.34 3.75 8.45 0.55 4.84 0.64 9.36 5.76 5.58 7.66 9.16 8.16 0.57 7.67 6.48 7.96
2.201 9.001
8.721 9.641
6.281 0.681
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
WDO: Tonnes milled, per qtr
CAD$m
source: company filings
That would be slightly above the Q4 result (and therefore a new record), but only just and while the average
received price is a best guess only, it’s fair to expect WDO to return a Q1 that matches its Q4 in global terms
without setting the world on fire. The market reacted accordingly and as this ten-day comparative to GDX
42324
33184
42815
27646
15374
35155
94694
96645
44354
23615
96675
25525
12315
48975
12426
85306
09684
01006
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
mt Kiena WDO: Average gold grade, per qtr Mishi
Eagle River 20
18
16 14 15.6
12
10 10.8
8
6
4
2
0
source: company filings
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1
Eagle River g/t Au Mishi
Kiena
source: company filings
WDO: Annual production and guidance
88619 97209
348321 058011 833321
330271 000091 000591
240000
220000 200000 20000 25000
180000
160000
140000
120000 100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 tse5202 tse6202
Oz Au
source: company filings

shows, the Angus Gold acquisition caused nary a blip in
the stock price, but there was more caution after the Q1
production NR as Kiena didn’t offer a winsome number
and the potential of a negative cost surprise is now in
the air as we move to the financial filings date, set for
post-close May 13th (i.e. a month to wait). Overall, I’d
say that late week under-performance is fair.
The TinyCaps List
After 15 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a loss of 1.87% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 12.72 0.095 -44.1%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 16.23 0.115 -20.7%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 5.94 0.06 -53.8%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 24.43 0.14 -3.4%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 30.37 0.40 2.6%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 12.06 0.125 56.3%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 268.9 40.34 0.15 15.4%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 12.89 0.12 41.2%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 23.42 0.445 -19.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 145.53 21.83 0.15 7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -1.87%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer
reputations.
TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
6%
Six winners (BRO.v, EDG.v, KDK.v, LMS.v, MOG.v, VAU.v), 4%
one unchanged stock (RDU.v) and three losers (CN.v, ELY.v, 2%
0%
STS.v) is the basic headcount, with the basket average
-2%
springing back and recovering most of the big dive -4%
registered the previous week, though still in negative -6%
-8%
territory for the moment. The good work was done by three
-10%
of the big move winners on the week, namely Latin Metals
(LMS.v up 31.6%), Viva Gold (VAU.v up 20.0%) and
Endurance Gold (EDG.v up 16.7%). Seems as though gold
stories were popular last week….who knew….
22
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpA ht31
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Endurance Gold (EDG.v): Up 16.7% but on thinnish volume and
only moving back to the same tight range we’ve seen in the stock
for the last year (chart below), EDG caught my eye for other
reasons. The website now has a link to its new presentation (cover
plate right), made last week to the Kamloops Exploration Group
Conference (13), a two day event held at the Coast Kamloops Hotel
& Conference Centre. Known as “KEG” (therefore this year “KEG
2025”), this is one of the oldest regular conference events on the
Canadian circuit and draws a sophisticated and educated audience
wanting to know all about what’s going on in the BC region. As a
result, the EDG presentation material is a cut above the standard
corporate PDF, more technical in nature and goes into detail about
what the team have been doing and why. EDG is also now pushing
the flagship Reliance project’s antimony credit metal and while
clearly secondary to gold in its mineralization, has become
something of a fashion metal in recent times (North America’s new-found desire to be self sufficient in
“critical metals”, etc).
Anyway, anyone interested should download their own copy on
this link (14) and to get you interested, the main takeaways are
the upcoming 7,000m of planned drilling and the upcoming
publication of a maiden resource estimate for Reliance, at which
point we should expect EDG to market itself more aggressively
to the wider market.
Viva Gold (VAU.v): After closing its $1.6m placement the week
before (see IKN829), last week VAU gave us a reminder of what
can happen to tinycaps as soon as a little market interest
breathes of them. Four days of nothing, then on Friday morning
as the world rallied anything with “Gold” in its corporate title
some-or-other person decided that the stock is a cheap bargain, tries to buy in for 250k or so shares and…
…the price immediately bumps 20%. It takes less than C$40k of buying to move these stocks by double
figure percentages after a long drought period, the classic sign of how ignored the tinycaps have been in
recent times.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador’s Presidential election result
This week’s major political news for mining concerns is the result of the run-off vote to become Ecuador’s
next President, a campaign and race we’ve followed very closely as it has always had the potential to provide
good trading and investment opportunities given the right result. And with 95.69% of the fast count vote now
in this Sunday evening (15), we have a winner:
23

 Daniel Noboa: 55.82%
 Luisa González: 44.18%
Noboa has claimed victory and made his acceptance speech, though at the time of writing this update
González still hadn’t conceded (and fwiw, I think there’s a high likelihood of her party and/or her mentor
Rafael Correa taking to the airwaves to claim election fraud. But no matter, for all intents and purposes
Daniel Noboa has succeeded in his bid to continue as Ecuador’s President and that, of course, is good news
for the Ecuador’s mining industry and those companies exposed to the country (and for what it’s worth, I’m
personally pleased with the result. Noboa is far from a perfect candidate, but the return of the RC party to
power would have been a clear step backward for the country and this result also confirms the rise of the
right in South America, with lefty governments now making way at regular intervals).
The question in the air tonight is why a first round that saw Noboa and Gonzlaez is a virtual tie on 44% each
turn into an eleven point victory when it was down to just those candidates, especially when González had
moved to form an alliance with Pachakutik and Leonidas Iza, the third placed candidate with over 5% of the
first round vote. In our main note on the election was in IKN828 two weeks ago “Ecuador: A trading
strategy”, we addressed the subject and came up with what I think, on reflection, is the right answer:
“…the Luisa González decision to court the indigenous vote and agree to terms means she’s taking a
risk. The standard and classic way of winning an election in LatAm (and other places) is now well-
worn; first you shore up your hardcore vote and then, in the run-off, you move to the centre to
capture as many of the undecided voters as possible. However in this case Luisa González is doing
the exact opposite; all through the round one campaign and into last week’s debate, her campaign
has cultivated the image of the new, more modern and less militant face of the Correa RC party,
trying to position her as a centre-lefty. But now with this pact and her statements on Venezuela,
she’s taken a clear image shift to the left and while that means she picks up the indigenous vote, it
leaves the door open for Noboa to attack and take the centrist and/or floating voters away from her.”
Noboa ran an effective run-off campaign and got very negative on Luisa on three fronts:
 He rammed home the idea that she would end the Dollarization of the country
 He made sure everyone knew Luisa would recognize the Venezuelan government of Nicolás Maduro
 He painted her as anti-progress, anti-business and on the hard left
It’s up to you to decide how much of those accusations were true, false or salad (as they say in France, but it
sure worked with the Ecuador rank and file.
Chile: Boric’s about-turn on mining
The difference a few years of economic reality does for a Lefty. Now into the fourth and last year of his term
of office, this desk recalls the ambivalence President Gabriel Boric showed toward the mining industry back
when he took office in March 2022, including his ill-received visits as Head of State at that year’s mining
conferences and of course, the “fun” his cohorts brought to the permitting process as the Left took power in
Chile, including that very painful denial and delay seen at the Rio2 Fenix project.
Cut to 2025 and here’s how his keynote speech as last week’s CESCO conference in Santiago, Chile went
down according to the headline in Chilean mining trade channel, Reporte Minero e Energético (16)
Presidente Boric: “We Can Do More And Better Mining In Chile”
The occasion was the gala dinner for the 1,800 attendees, VIPs and associated hangers-on who had gathered
in Santiago for the two day conference, one of the three big events in the Chilean mining year. Here’s a
quote from the report (translated) that includes direct quotes that nicely sum up the President’s pro-mining
position and got him a warm and extended round of applause once he’s done speaking:
“Mining is an essential pillar in this sense, that guides Chile’s way of life. We can reach better
solutions when we converse and work together, and this gala dinner with this impressive gathering of
over 1,800 people is an example of this,” said Boric. “I invite all these executives, company
representatives and mining employees to continue to collaborate and work together to do more and
better mining in Chile, to generate collective profits for all the country.”
The days of the Commie threat to Chile’s mining sector are long gone, no matter who wins in November.
24

More CESCO: Quoting CEOs on The Trump Tariffs according to media agenda
In other CESCO news, unsurprisingly the Trump tariff issue was top of the agenda at CESCO and generated
no end of discussion, debate and media column inches. After perusing the offerings, these two reports stood
out to this desk as they manage to take exactly the same person saying exactly the same words to a bunch
of reporters and spinning them according to what the reporters’ bosses want us to think. The person in
question is Ivan Arriagada, CEO of big copper player Antofagasta (ANTO.L) and the Reuters script (17) must
have pleased his fan club in London UK:
Chile's Antofagasta expects copper demand to defy tariff turmoil
said in an interview on the sidelines of the CESCO copper conference in Santiago that he expected supplies of
copper, needed for construction and the transition to a lower carbon economy, would remain in limited supply.
That meant he was more concerned about the impact on the wider economy of the trade war, which could
ultimately reduce copper demand, than the resilience of the copper market itself.
Should a global economic slowdown destroy demand for copper from construction and infrastructure, Arriagada
said he expected use by data centers, renewable energy and AI to compensate.
Suitably upbeat on copper’s prospects. However, Tradingview decided to take the same comments and tell us
this (18):
Antofagasta CEO warns trade war threatens copper demand but sees tech growth as a lifeline
The escalating US-China trade war is raising alarms across global industries, and copper is no exception.
Ivan Arriagada, CEO of Chile’s Antofagasta, recently warned that rising tariffs could have a long-term negative
impact on copper demand, posing risks to the construction industry and the ongoing transition to a green
economy.
Speaking at the CESCO copper conference in Santiago, Arriagada highlighted that President Donald Trump’s
newly announced tariffs are driving greater financial market uncertainty.
This uncertainty has already caused copper prices to slump sharply, with futures falling below $4.20 per pound,
their lowest in four months, according to Trading Economics.
Despite these challenges, Arriagada expressed cautious optimism about the copper market’s supply side.
“Copper is a real commodity, so limited supplies should keep it up,” he said, underscoring that while demand may
soften due to economic weakness, supply constraints could provide a critical price cushion.
Arriagada also pointed to emerging technology trends as a potential buffer against falling copper consumption.
Impressive to think those two publications were reporting on the exact same words. As Chuck Berry wisely
put it, “C'est la vie" say the old folks, It goes to show you never can tell.”
Argentina: The end of currency controls
Not exactly a mining story, but big news for the entire Argentine financial sector and therefore relevant to us.
When Javier Milei campaigned for President, one of his central campaign pledges was to end the so-called
“cepo cambiario” (literal translation “exchange clamp”), the currency controls that limit the official exchange
rate of the Peso to foreign currencies (mainly the US Dollar) and limits the amount of foreign currency (again,
nearly always the USD) any individual can buy. Said controls that stop the free float of the Peso are much of
the reason behind the country’s famously high inflation rate, the many and varied unofficial (sometimes
illegal) secondary market rates for the Peso and other such economic headwinds that have stymied the
country over the last couple of decades.
Therefore, when Argentina finally reached agreement with the IMF over a new multi-billion dollar loan
(U$12Bn to U$15Bn, depending on certain criteria) last week and the deal included an immediate payment of
most of the cash to Argentina’s Central Bank, President Javier Milei didn’t waste much time. In a live message
to the nation on Friday evening (after the banks had closed) he bit the bullet and here’s a report on what
happened (19), here’s how it starts:
Argentine President Javier Milei announced on Friday, April 11, that the country's libertarian government would lift
the its strict capital and currency controls in a few days, a high-stakes gamble made possible by a new loan from the
International Monetary Fund. Shortly afterward, Milei, flanked by his ministers, addressed his nation on television.
"Today we are breaking the cycle of disillusionment and disenchantment and are beginning to move forward for the
first time," he said. "We have eliminated the exchange rate controls on the Argentine economy for good."
Be in no doubt, this is a Big Thing for the country and therefore its growing mining industry. The Peso won’t
be fully free floating for a while, as from Monday it will be allowed to trade in a range of 1,000 to 1,400 vs
the USD and that range is extended by 100 Pesos per month, but that’s a big improvement from the current
crawling peg and if things go smoothly, we’ll eventually get to a Peso which trades on a tight range inside a
wide limits that will no longer matter. As for exactly what happens Monday, nobody seems to know how the
market will react at first (even the country’s FinMin said “we have no idea” when asked) but the IMF loan
deal has given the government the monetary room to back the Peso for an extended period and with inflation
25

dropping year-over-year (though it recently spiked in the latest February data), they’re taken the leap of
faith.
If all goes well, this move should mark the beginning of the end of the high inflation rates that have plagued
Argentina and that alone is good for its mining sector, but more important will be the free flow of money in
Dollars in and out of the country. Remittances just got a lot easier, as have planning decisions on capex
items, imports of supplies and exports of produced metals. There will be a lot of eyes on the forex market in
Argentina on Monday and volatility should be expected in the near-term, so the expected success (or failure)
this big and somewhat risky move will be fairly easy to gauge from the outside. If the Peso dives to the limit
down and stays there for the month, then does the same thing when the band is widened by 1% in May,
Milei is in trouble and the Central Bank reserves will be under pressure (the BCBA will be forced to buy Pesos
and sell US Dollars on the open market to calm waters). However, if the Peso finds a level and trades freely,
Milei gamble will pay off.
Argentina: RIGI Part Deux
This is still at rumour/jungledrums stage, so nothing official but this is the type of trial balloon story that
normally precedes a government announcement in Argentina (as long as there’s no push back from powerful
adversaries, at least). The headline of the business section of the main Santa Cruz regional newspaper this
weekend, La Opinion, looks like this (20):
Headline: “Mining Sector, closer to getting an extended RIGI”
Subheader: “In a key meeting with the national government, the mining sector
has managed to get (the government) to accept a modified RIGI,allowing it to
extend the mine life of existing operations.”
Up to now the RIGI scheme has been for new projects (mining or other) with a minimum capex bill of
U$200m, but the mining lobby has been working to get RIGi extended to allow new projects at existing mines
to benefit from the deal. The head of the Barrick Veladero mine has recently made noises about applying for
RIGI for that mine’s extension project and the news this weekend seems to back up that idea. It probably
goes without saying, but this is great news for companies with working mines in the country of the size that
can handle U$200m+ upgrades and added project phases. Veladero is one, others are mostly gold mines and
include San José (HOC/MUX), Cerro Negro (NEM), Cerro Vanguardia (AAL), Lindero (FSM) among others.
Mexico: Peter Megaw is right
Stuck near the top of a poor article on the Mexico mining scene published by Northern Miner last week (21) is
one part worth reading a counter-argument quote from Peter Megaw, the founder of MAG Silver and one of
the few geologist/entrepreneurs who get how Mexico works (and he should do by now, after 30-odd years
working there). Here’s the segment worth reading:
26

“The biggest change is we’re seeing permits being granted. They were taking a long time under Amlo and now
they’re moving ahead,” said Megaw, co-founder of MAG Silver (TSX, NYSE: MAG) and Minaurum Gold (TSXV:
MGG; US-OTC: MMRGF). “Sheinbaum is simply quietly doing the things that are supposed to be done instead of
noisily doing the things that shouldn’t be done.”
Megaw pointed to Alamos Gold’s (TSX, NYSE: AGI) receipt in January of an environmental permit at its Mulatos
project in Sonora state. The 40-year veteran of exploration in Mexico said Camimexes alarming figures are “logical
extensions of declining trends that developed over the last three to four years under Amlo,” adding that it will take
six to 10 months to get a feel for Sheinbaum’s trajectory.
This desk absolutely agrees with Peter Megaw on this. For what it’s worth, most of the rest of the article
features one-sided reporting on a couple of the current arbitration processes brought by Canadian explorecos
against Mexico, both of them slanted toward the companies in question (including extensive quotes from the
lawyer running the Silver Bull case, Lord help us). Zero mention of the arrogance of the management teams
in question and the way they treated locals with utter disdain for countless years, but you can’t expect too
much from a journalist who, by the looks of his script, obviously didn’t bother going to J-school before
applying for work. Another example of the decadence of what used to be considered The Mining Industry’s
Bible, Denis Laviolette will be the end of Northern Miner as a serious publication.
Bolivia: The field for August
Ecuador is the main political story this week, we noted the developments in South America’s other major
election for mining jurisdictions, Chile, last weekend, so today we add a quick update on the race for to be
Bolivia’s next President, with the vote scheduled for August 17th, as although it’s not a country I’d personally
expose my portfolio to it certainly is one of the most traditional places to go mining in the continent. The field
is beginning to define itself and in real terms there are now three players left in, along with the Evo Wild Card
option. Bullet points:
 The current left wing MAS government has now got behind Andrónico Rodríguez, who at 26 years old is
already head of the upper house of Congress (Senate). Polls show him with around 24% of voter
intention.
 To the right, we have a split that could cause problems for the opposition. At the start of the year, the
main right wing pre-candidates agreed to unite behind one candidate when the election process had
made it clear who has the biggest chance to defeat the opposition. That’s now decided and the alliance
has this week picked Samuel Doria Medina (businessman who ran for the job in the last election),
however his main rival for the right wing choice, Jorge Quiroga, split with the loose alliance a couple of
weeks ago and is likely to run on his own accord.
 The wild card continues to be ex-President Evo Morales who, after being disqualified by the MAS party
from running and barred by the judiciary due to him already being President twice (officially, really it’s
three terms) has formed his own party and threatens a mass march of supporters to La Paz in mid-May
during the official inscription process window. If he’s allowed to run, he will certainly split the lefty vote
and affect Andrónico Rodríguez’s chances of winning. He may even win himself. However, as things
stand his candidature is unlikely to be accepted and instead, there’s the potential for violent clashes
looming.
Once the inscription process is done, we’ll know more about who can win. As things stand, the right has a
serious chance of wresting power from the left-wing MAS party for the first time since 2006 (22) (23) (24).
Market Watching
Deferred: It all got said above.
Conclusion
IKN830 is done, we close as usual with a couple of bullet points:
 Buy Ecuador. That’s the easiest call The IKN Weekly will make this year.
27

 The 1q25 production NRs are now rolling in and so far, things have looked good. Wesdome,
Sandstorm and Amerigo today all pass muster and with the way Eldorado Gold has been trading, I’m
expecting good things from that NR, which should drop this coming week.
 The Trump Tariff saga is bound to roll on and the volatility is guaranteed. If there’s one thought I’d
like to lodge in your head on this, it’s that Trump wants to remain in front of the curve and has the
entire might of the US economy to play with.
 Allow gold to climb to the number gold wants to reach, leave the second-guessing to others. Keep
dancing.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos
(MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-from-reciprocal-tariffs
(2) https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20250409.pdf
(3) https://www.amerigoresources.com/investors/share-buybacks/
(4) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-selects-worley-to-lead-engineering-for-diablillos-definitive-feasibility-study
(5) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-accelerates-us685-million-payment-to-emx-royalty-corp-securing-diablillos-
project
(6) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chilean-miner-codelco-logging-strong-q2-demand-china-chairman-says-2025-04-10/
(7) https://liberocopper.com/_resources/news/nr-20250410.pdf
(8) https://www.rumbominero.com/peru/noticias/mineria/exploracion-proyecto-minero-elida/
(9) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/sandstorm-gold-royalties-reports-strong-first-quarter-sales-and-record-revenue-19-million-in-
share-buybacks-financial-results-may-6-880300552.html
(10) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2025/Wesdome-Gold-Mines-to-Acquire-Angus-Gold-
Quadruples-the-Eagle-River-Land-Package/default.aspx
(11) https://www.angusgold.com/projects/golden-sky/overview
(12) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2025/Wesdome-Announces-First-Quarter-2025-Production-
Provides-Timing-of-First-Quarter-Financial-Results-and-Webcast/default.aspx
(13) https://www.keg.bc.ca/conference/default.htm
(14) https://endurancegold.com/site/assets/files/8601/edgpp_reliance_apr8_2025_keg_conference.pdf
(15) https://elecciones2025-
2v.cne.gob.ec/?afd_azwaf_tok=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiJ9.eyJhdWQiOiJlbGVjY2lvbmVzMjAyNS0ydi5jbmUuZ29iLmVjIiwiZXhwIjoxNzQ0NT
k2MzMzLCJpYXQiOjE3NDQ1OTYzMjMsImlzcyI6InRpZXIxLTc1Y2Q5OGM3Yy1wNjhkMiIsInN1YiI6IjUxLjE1OS4yMjUuMTMwIiwiZGF0Y
SI6eyJ0eXBlIjoiaXNzdWVkIiwicmVmIjoiMjAyNTA0MTRUMDIwNTIzWi1yMTc1Y2Q5OGM3Y3A2OGQyaEMxRFVTcTNtZzAwMDAwMDA
ydTAwMDAwMDAwMGR0ZDkiLCJiIjoiUUd0T2h0azNZbHpqbXotUnpuQjViNG5YUzQ0SllnQmhET1l1MUN2WWpYMCIsImgiOiJkajVVdEl
SZmYzWjZ4ajhCcjFUWGtvMXAyWHl2REFhcnZvdmNPQnZIMU40In19.I3xdaXLis_6kWnlLfaquDnHPLz5sz1o4ekXsoEkux0ml9T5fhYTiT
F8T6EIYOH2ccRwEPVZUTrH9IhW6bdHXKAVt2f6n-fn9XvMI-F2i_XkhKINwnn4rDEXHeUkG_19qgVd__CMrqDFJ4N7eR6xzyWd-
5LtuJWYnKnnuT9WIcYMFUiwYFm4zhpkI0EpRC-
_TYM7zVuaIqCcZnaG2Z1nGQ3NUVPDcZPIFmIeqUI3Y_9IFcwf8pMdx9P02vggk8nJUBtiWxTAFw-
bduiNnBrWV6tcdwPa68kq8F8JdoackZTl1pY4wQCWglu9DcBMKrEEZDQ-nD9oWwScEmcG1RlHeEg.WF3obl2IDtqgvMFRqVdYkD5s
28

(16) https://www.reporteminero.cl/noticia/noticias/2025/04/presidente-boric-podemos-hacer-mas-y-mejor-mineria-en-chile-durante-cena-
cesco-week-2025
(17) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chiles-antofagasta-expects-copper-demand-defy-tariff-turmoil-2025-04-08/
(18) https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:cd5355c49094b:0-antofagasta-ceo-warns-trade-war-threatens-copper-demand-but-sees-
tech-growth-as-a-lifeline/
(19) https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html#
(20) https://laopinionaustral.com.ar/santa-cruz-produce/tapa-suplemento-santa-cruz-produce-la-mineria-mas-cerca-de-lograr-un-rigi-
ampliado-521461.html
(21) https://www.northernminer.com/news/sheinbaum-quickens-mining-permits-even-as-mexico-faces-1-5b-in-claims/1003877379/
(22) https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2025/04/04/se-rompe-el-bloque-de-oposicion-en-bolivia-con-miras-a-las-
elecciones-de-agosto/
(23) https://correodelsur.com/politica/20250331/encuesta-de-claure-samuel-y-tuto-estan-con-empate-tecnico.html
(24) https://elpais.com/america/2025-04-02/evo-morales-crea-un-nuevo-partido-y-desafia-al-gobierno-de-luis-arce.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
29

Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
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Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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