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The IKN Weekly
Week 828, March 30th 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Repetition converts an appetite into an art, Jobs and Jay.
Fundamental Analysis: Ecuador: A trading strategy.
Stocks to Follow: Gold Royalty Corp (GROY), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to), AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to), Surge Copper (SURG.v), Salazar Resources (SRL.v),
Lumina Gold (LUM.v), Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax), Pampa Metals (PM.cse), SolGold (SOLG.to)
(SOLG.L).
The Producer Basket: Overview, B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Mogotes Minerals (MOG.v), Radius Gold (RDU.v), Kodiak Copper (KDK.v),
Latin Metals (LMS.v).
Regional Politics: Peru: Three acts on Tia Maria.
Market Watching: New Found Gold (NGFC) (NFG.v): Iceberg wins and Eric loses, West Red Lake Gold
(WRLG.v): Makuch leaves, Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v) wakes up.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 Today’s main fundies event is more political than normal for this section of The IKN Weekly, but as it
ends in clear trade set-ups and proposals for speculation strategies in the event of either candidate
winning and is essentially all about doing what this publication sets out to do, i.e. buy low and sell
high, it’s in the right place. How I’m looking to trade the Ecuador election via mining stocks, two weeks
to go and counting.
 It’s the end of the first quarter of 2025 tomorrow (my how time flies etc) and week 13 is closed, so we
do the quarter end review of the copper and producer basket stocks in today’s edition and will offer
the extra day up to next quarter. While Agnico (AEM) is again getting all the market love and plaudits
as it approaches parity with NEM for the top spot in the sector, I have to say I’ve been more impressed
with New Gold among the producers this time around. As for the copper plays, I wouldn’t have picked
any of the top three so keep that in mind the next time I start getting all dismissive about this-or-that
company.
 On that subject, today’s Market Watching is entirely negative and has things to say about New Found
Gold, West Red Lake Gold and Oroco Resource Corp in turn.
 And there’s more grouchy criticism and stock hatred on show in The Copper Basket stock notes (Hot
Chili and Pampa) as well as the Producer Basket (B2Gold). I’m not just a meany on TwitterX.
 Some call it admirable loyalty, other call it a fool married to his stock trade, I just call it Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), which gets a couple of extra paragraphs in today’s Stocks To Follow notes,
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Repetition converts an appetite into an art
Oh, yeah, I'll tell you something
I think you'll understand
When I say that something
I want to hold your hand
The Beatles, 1964
Keeping it brief today. One of the best backhanded compliments I ever received was from a junior mining
CEO who, while referring to The IKN Weekly, said, “You know Mark, you’re really good at saying the same
thing in different ways.” And even though the CEO in question turned out to be a double-speaking waste of
time, it’s a line that stuck with me over the years and, if memory serves, it’s not its first time in an intro
section, either.
It came to mind while collecting my thoughts on the week in the metals market, having watched Comex
copper prices peak at U$5.30/lb or so before returning to near UNCH on the week and SI00 silver break the
U$35/oz line before selling into the Friday close of U$34.72/oz (NY market will tell you U$34.05/oz). However
gold just kept on keeping on all week, ignoring all top pickers and warnings of “it just can’t last” to hit
another new record daily and weekly close on Friday. Our continuous contract (GC00) tracker signed it off at
U$3,119/oz, while the NY market will tell you U$3,085/oz but whatever number you prefer, these are heady
days for the monetary metal. All very impressive and the precious metals market continues to be 100% on-
point with our message all year. Or perhaps that should be messages with an S, because we’ve found more
than one way of saying the same thing about gold and silver (and copper, for that matter since our
declaration of full bullishness in the era of Trump, a position that started around Christmas.
 Last week it was “keep on keeping on”
 We’ve tried pooh-poohing the market top callers
 We’ve told you to “keep dancing”
 We’ve used the same constructive bull thesis on silver and gold, while distancing from the rabid
soothsayers with their wild price targets
All those and more and this weekend is no different from any of those, except that today’s intro is shorter,
more meta and somewhat introspective. The fact I’ve spent the better part of the last three or four months’
worth of intros finding different ways of saying the same thing, i.e. “buy gold” isn’t lost on me. What’s more,
it’s perfectly fine because when you boil it all down, buying and holding gold, silver, copper or most any of
the derivative stocks connected with those metals has been the right trade in 2025 to date, so I’m happy to
have given the right information in different ways. It may be boring and repetitive, but it’s also right and if it’s
managed to convince a couple of less-than 100% diamond tight hands and got them to hold through instead
of cashing in, that’s the best result of all. Bonus points if you noticed I stole the title line from Oscar Wilde.
Jobs and Jay
This week in scheduled macro events is centered on Friday, though before mentioning the two that matter
it’s worth reiterating that in the new world of Trump’s USA anything can happen at any time so we shouldn’t
get too dogmatic and blandly assume things will be quiet until then. Anyway, Friday has a double bill of fun,
with first up the US BLS Employment Report for the month of March 2025 and according to good old Bill
McBride at the unbeatable Calculated Risk website (1), “…consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the
unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.” So now you know.
The fun then continues on Friday morning after the open when Jerome Powell gets up to make a speech to
the ”Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia”, no
less. A fun crowd for sure, but when you’re the Chair of the US Federal Reserve and you choose a speech
headline “Economic Outlook”, it doesn’t really matter who the live audience represents, because countless
millions of market dollars will be hanging on your every word in live feeds. Will Jay make anti-Trump noises
again, cast shade on his jolly tariff wheeze and warn of dark times if the tax on imports is generalized? We’ll
find out on Friday.
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Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Ecuador: A trading strategy
It’s not quite the first time ever, but main Fundamental Analysis notes based on a Regional Politics subject
are few and far between. This weekend’s main event is a rarity, but it gets main event status because
Ecuador in April is set up as scene for potentially highly profitable trading opportunities in our sector of focus.
The event in question is, of course, the presidential election second round run-off vote, in two weeks’ time on
April 13th, when we find out whether incumbent Daniel Noboa or challenger Luisa González becomes
Ecuador’s next President. We don’t need to go into every nook and corner of the country’s complicated
political and social scene, our “buy mining stocks low, sell them high” remit is specific and that’s good, it
means I don’t need to bore you solid with all the election noise and drama. So what follows is the need to
know on the upcoming second round vote for mining people, the repercussions of the possible outcomes and
how you might consider trading the set-up as it evolves. We cover the following topics in today’s note:
 The debate fallout and the start of the run-off campaign
 The emerging threat to the mining industry of a Luisa González victory
 What to expect on April 13th
 Ways to trade the result
 Preferred stocks to trade in each circumstance
So let’s get on with it.
The debate fallout and the start of campaigning
A week is a long time in politics and while last week’s edition included a quick summary and personal views
on the live TV debate between the two run-off candidates, current President Daniel Noboa and challenger
from the Correa lefty ranks, Luisa González, by popular request you get the fall-out of last weekend’s debate.
For the record, I’m sticking with my initial impression of “lots of negativity and personal attacks, basically a
wash” as per IKN827 however, my views are less important than those of Ecuadorians. It was therefore
interesting and enlightening to spend part of the week tuning into the analysis shows and reading op-eds by
local commentators and political/current affairs people as, almost to a person, they said Noboa won. In broad
strokes, the collective argument goes like this:
Firstly a style point: While both sides were negative and threw mud Noboa rolled with the punches, kept
smiling and didn’t let González’s smears get to him. On the other hand, Luisa González reacted negatively a
couple of times to Noboa’s accusations and that, in the eyes of those watching, is a clear red flag against her
name (e.g. here (2) and while the reasons Noboa called her “Kermit the Frog” are wrapped up in local politics
and connected to a corruption investigation of the Correa era, her indignant reaction is what mattered most).
At this point an observation is in order, as if you think the political world is tilted in favour of men over
women up in the industrialized Northern nations, you ought to spend time in South America and particularly
Ecuador, a country with one of the most ingrained “machismo society” reputations around. Ugly as it is, this
is a world in which any signs of “hysterical sensitive thin-skinned female” are pounced upon by detractors and
you can decry it for being misogynistic all day and night, it’s not going to change the cruel reality. Bottom
line, González did herself no favours by getting offended, especially as she was dishing out the same
treatment to Noboa all evening without him reacting in the same way.
Secondly, something more substantive: In Round One, the Luisa González campaign did all it could to
distance her from the shadow of Rafael Correa, who remains a polemic figure in Ecuador politics. While Luisa
is obviously his dauphine who reaps all the Correa loyalist votes, the strategy is to position her as the new
party boss with her own opinions, not under the direct influence of Correa, in order to attract the floating
voters. This is a smart and will likely continue in the next three weeks, however during the debate Noboa
posed well-phrased questions and comments and when Luisa answered, she sounded both close and
subordinate to Correa. Noboa didn’t ram home on Luisa’s position during the debate, but he now has plenty
of ammunition in the next three weeks to paint Luisa as Correa’s puppet. Several pundits made the same
observation on this (for example here (2), one of the better analyses I watched with a TV host and three
guests, one pro-Noboa, one Pro-Luisa and one ostensibly neutral who ended up sounding rather pro-Noboa).
This is the local flavour that makes sense to outsiders like me once they hear it.
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Thirdly, we come to Luisa González’s biggest error and how she dropped the ball on “The Venezuela
Question”. As a lefty associated with Correa, one of her obvious weak flanks has always been whether her
government would recognize Nicolas Maduro as the legitimately elected President of Venezuela after last
year’s blatantly rigged vote. Not only did she say she would, but impressively, she managed to make a bad
position worse as she came up with the idea of recognizing Venezuela’s government in order that she could
send back the Venezuelans in the country. Three reasons why this was a fail:
 Recognizing the stolen election is a clear net vote loser in Ecuador and Noboa now has a easy
line of attack between now and April 13th “Maduro’s friend/appeasement of dictator/etc”.
 Luisa’s idea to “send back the Venezuelans” is out of touch with reality. It may have worked
seven or eight years ago, when blaming rising crime figures on the influx of Venezuelan migrants
escaping the economic disaster of their home country, but in 2025 Ecuador (and all of South
America, in fact), are not only used to their Venezuelan migrant community members, but
they’ve seen them up close and personally and know they are 99.99% good, hard-working
people, good neighbours, etc. The fear of the unknown culture has gone for good and what’s
more, crime in Ecuador 2025 is directly and strongly connected with the narco gangs, rather than
any particular race.
 What’s more, in point of fact there’s no need to recognize the current Venezuela government in
order to eject Venezuelans from your country. For more on that, ask Donald Trump.
It was her worst moment in the debate and sure enough, as the campaign ramped up last week Noboa made
a lot of Luisa’s Venezuela position. This report entitled “Daniel Noboa: “Luisa González showed her true
colours in the debate, her mask slipped”” (3) is an example of the coverage, here’s an excerpt quoting the
President during a campaign speech on Wednesday (translated):
“For four months they’ve been trying hide, make-up, present and perfume a personality that comes
over as a moderate social-democrat, a good, level-headed woman”, said Noboa. But “she showed
her true colours in the debate” when recognizing the totalitarian regime of Nicolás Maduro in
Venezuela. “The mask slipped. It’s clear she only talks about democracy when it suits her”, said the
presidential candidate.
So Noboa will use this subject (and the others that came up in the debate) as a hammer against his rival,
however he’s also using his executive position to offer what is basically free money to Ecuadorians. For
example, last week he extended a U$1,000 government loan (a bit like the Covid loans, these are never paid
back) that was enacted for recent flood victims to the entire country. This means any Ecuadorian with a small
business (and there are literally millions that qualify, a street corner food stand is good enough) who have
been "affected by whatever circumstance" have until Today March 30th to apply for a government loan of
U$1,000 under the "Reactivate and Stimulate, Small Business Owner" initiative. And sure enough, the date of
the eventual loan delivery makes it clear that if Noboa doesn't win the payola would be put in doubt (4). A
clearer example of legalized bribery in times of elections is difficult to imagine.
Summing up so far, the debate was ugly, negative and shed more heat than light. If you weren’t an ardent
supporter of either candidate is was difficult to be positive about either performance, but on reflection and
after considering the views of local experts who know more about the background and the cultural triggers, I
agree Noboa did less worse than Luisa González. However, it’s questionable as to how much the TV debate
affected public opinion directly, as the target audience of undecided voters who pay little attention to the
day-to-day cut and thrust of politics were not tuned in on Sunday. What matters now is how the two
candidates use the information gathered during the debate in the brief two and half weeks of campaigning
now upon us (with nearly a week behind us already). Overall, Noboa’s “less worse” performance may have
gained him a small advantage but with the vote likely to be very close, it’s still anyone’s game.
The emerging threat to the mining industry of a Luisa González victory
Debate fall-out done, we arrive at this week’s most important election development that began on Thursday
with a stump speech made by Luisa González in the town of Pujilí, Cotopaxi region. It was a significant
moment, the location and moment carefully chosen as it happened in one of most traditional indigenous
towns in the region where CONAIE leader Leonida Iza was born and bred. It’s also close to the highly
contentious La Plata mine project owned by Atico Mining (ATY.v), location of some of the biggest anti-mining
protests in the last couple of years. Luisa González and her team picked this moment to reach out to the
indigenous vote and along with a list of pro-unity, pro-indigenous declarations and campaign promises mining
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was a key subject. An example of the speech used is (translated) (5), “Let's go hand-in-hand to move our
country forward. Progress requires unity, teamwork, leaving hatred behind and focusing on what unites us."
All very nice I’m sure, but for the bit that matters to us on the outside looking in, here's Ecuador's national
daily Primicias with the quote (translated) (6):
"González showed that the right of prior consultancy be respected, as per the Constitution, in zones
affected by mining projects.” Yes of course to Prior Consultancy and we'll go for a mining moratorium
and an audit of the mining sector", she said.”
She also said that cases "in which they have imprisoned those who have defended their territory"
would be revised and talked about members of the rural population "who were unfairly imprisoned" in
zones such as Palo Quemado and Quimsacocha. "We'll review the cases so that there might be
justice, because there's also a right to resist, there's a right to protest peacefully."
There’s a lot to unpack there, starting with a “mining moratorium” which could be anything, from a brief
review of the sector to a wholesale suspension of mining activity. Equally "an audit" sounds good in context,
but could also be anything. However, "prior consultancy" laws are clear and while Noboa will also be able to
talk in favour of this point (it’s current law, after all), locals against mining projects often complain that prior
consultancy hearings are done in an opaque manner and they have a point, as seen in the recent episode
around the Loma Larga/Quimsacocha project owned by Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to), see IKN819 and
"Ecuador: Mining company trickery" for more. Finally, her mention of those jailed for recent protests around
Palo Quemado (i.e. the Atico Mining La Plata project) would have gone down well with local audiences, but
ironically plenty of the unjustly imprisoned for protests at Quimsacocha happened during the Rafael Correa
presidency.
The González position may not be quite as anti-mining as it seemed at first light, but my stars that speech
worked all right. On Friday, the party political arm of the CONAIE indigenous umbrella group, Pachakutik
(whose candidate, Leonidas Iza, got 5.25% of the vote in round one), called a meeting to decide whether to
back González and the discussions moved quickly, because yesterday Saturday at 1pm local time the
executive of Pachakutik and Luisa González met to sign a pact in which Pachakutik would now formally
support González and form a alliance government in the event she won, in exchange for her pledge of 25
points of order. Here’s Ecuador’s national daily newspaper, El Univero, this weekend with a report on the very
mediatic signing ceremony that happened on Saturday (7):
“The agreement, ratified by the signatures of (the head of the Pachakutik Party Guillermo)
Churuchumbi, (Luisa) González, Chávez, Vellaejo and at least seven other representatives of
collectives and social platforms (i.e. members of CONAIE) covered issues such as the crime,
immediate and permanent actions against illegal mining, an audit and moratorium for mining, the
elimination of large-scale mining.”
In other words, Luisa González has secured the support of the party that got 5.25% in round one, the price
being to adhere to its main demands as a political party and those include strong anti-mining measures, from
a crackdown against informal mining to the prohibition of all large-scale mining activity. So be in no doubt,
the stakes have been raised for mining in Ecuador. Up to this weekend, González played it safe on mining
and not tried to make waves, but she has decided to attract the indigenous vote in order to win and that
means she is now taking a clear anti-mining stance for the campaign. Be clear, this is a Big Thing and marks
the watershed moment in this campaign, as from now Ecuador will be given the choice of a clear right wing
candidate (Noboa) and a clear left wing candidate (González) is a statistically very tight race and will be
asked to make a choice. And to underscore the ideological gap, while Luisa González was meeting, greeting
and signing election pacts with indigenous, President Noboa was in Mar-a-Lago this weekend in a closed-door
dinner and meeting with President Trump (8). While secrecy abounds on the details of that meeting, it’s
widely assumed in Ecuador that top of the agenda is an agreement to re-open the US Military base in Manta,
Ecuador, which was closed by Correa during his presidency.
We now move on to the pointy end of this election. We try to handicap the race, we consider ways of playing
the result and then suggest stocks that might interest you, depending on your ambitions and risk tolerance
levels.
What to expect on April 13th
The short answer to this is “Don’t know”, as this race is officially tight and too close to call. Polls taken this
week after the debate have not helped much either, as those biased toward Noboa in round one have him in
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the lead in round two, while those biased toward González do the same for her. The events this weekend are
a clear statistical positive for González and the pact will being net votes to her cause, but as pointed out
previously the CONAIE vote is not a single bloc and even with this official alliance backing, not all the CONAIE
member groups will agree or adhere with its Pachakutik executive (indeed, we’ve already had one ardently
anti-Correa CONAIE member groups calling today’s alliance “treason” (9)).
However, the Luisa González decision to court the indigenous vote and agree to terms means she’s taking a
risk. The standard and classic way of winning an election in LatAm (and other places) is now well-worn; first
you shore up your hardcore vote and then, in the run-off, you move to the centre to capture as many of the
undecided voters as possible. However in this case Luisa González is doing the exact opposite; all through the
round one campaign and into last week’s debate, her campaign has cultivated the image of the new, more
modern and less militant face of the Correa RC party, trying to position her as a centre-lefty. But now with
this pact and her statements on Venezuela, she’s taken a clear image shift to the left and while that means
she picks up the indigenous vote, it leaves the door open for Noboa to attack and take the centrist and/or
floating voters away from her. The next two weeks of campaigning will be all-important, as may any
declaration or deal Noboa announces after meeting with Trump this weekend. Chances are that Ecuador is
going to be offered two roads by both candidates and asked to make a choice between, right or left. I expect
Noboa to point to Venezuela as much as possible, then point to The USA and ask Ecuador which model they
prefer, which would be a powerful election message and potentially the winner, but that’s just my personal
hunch. Even with the alliance news this weekend, my gut feeling is that the country will prefer Noboa to the
prospect of re-living the Correa era but I’m aware that’s just me and put a gun to my head and it’s difficult to
handicap this much, further than 60/40 in favour. It’s too close to call.
Ways to trade the election result
This is the question I’ve been asked more than any other, be it at a macro level or whether Stock XYZ is in
good shape going into the election. Up to this week my answer would have been more nuanced but, with
Luisa now shifting left and making anti-mining policies a central part of the deal with Pachakutik, the split is
easier to call. So light of developments this week, we can make two clear statements
1) If Noboa wins, all mining stocks rally. That will be the near-term reaction, from there a lot will
depend on the specific project and we go into the weeds on that below.
2) If Luisa wins, all mining stocks sell-off in the near-term. Up to this week I would have excluded
the established operations and stocks from that statement, but now even the big and operating
mines need to be nervous. Once that knee-jerk reaction is done, their individual fates in the
longer-term will depend and they are best separated into different buckets.
Luisa’s new militancy against mining also means we may see more nerves and selling before the vote day,
which would mean the positive reaction in the case of a Noboa win would be that much greater. As for the
buckets of stocks, here are my categories:
Bucket One: The operating mines, such as Fruta del Norte and Mirador, will be fine in the medium to long
term once the near-term panic drop is over. It’s many times more difficult to close down an operating mine
than it is to stop a project from developing and in the case of Lundin Gold (LUG.to), the company is well-
regarded locally and has brought real wealth creation in its community. Those are the operations that are not
closed down.
Bucket Two: Late stage developers with permits in place should be okay. The obvious example here is the El
Domo/Curipamba project owned by Silvercorp (SVM) and Salazar (SRL.v), which is why I’m good about
holding my small position in SRL into the election. Be clear, these stocks will also drop in the event of a Luisa
win, they don’t have any immunity to the wholesale dumpage that Ecuador mining stocks will experience if
Noboa fails to be re-elected and they’re one of the targets for the vague sounding moratorium. However,
they’ll have plenty of protection against the incoming government and with social licenses in place, detractors
won’t have much to go on (and will prefer to concentrate their attacks on the easier and more emblematic
targets, anyway.
Bucket Three: Developers still waiting for major permits and/or funding will suffer and for a good example,
look no further than SolGold in the copper space and Lumina Gold in the precious metals space. Both enjoy
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reasonable CSR, both are basically ready to roll and both would hit major problems in raising the capital
required until the air were fully cleared.
Bucket Four: The projects with the most local bad blood against them would be in serious trouble if Luisa
wins. Be clear this group wouldn’t have it easy even if Noboa wins, all politics is local and projects such as
Warintza (SLS.to), La Plata (ATY.v) or Loma Larga (DPM.to) could easily turn into protest flashpoints against
his government. I’d still avoid them personally, as I’ve learned that no matter where you are in South
America, if you don’t have the locals on your side you are screwed sooner or later. However a Luisa win
would deliver them directly into the hands of the new alliance with indigenous via Pachakutik and if any of
these were allowed to progress under a Luisa government, it would break the alliance immediately and send
CONAIE out on the streets, protesting against the traitorous stance.
Preferred stocks to trade in each circumstance
After all that, we get to the bit that matters. I almost put a flow chart together for this but, as it’s a binary
situation, I think script is enough to set out the plan. The following is personal taste and risk tolerance (of
course), you may be braver than I and willing to risk a purchase before the election happens in order to bet
on a Noboa victory (and if so good luck), but I’m going to keep risk management first and foremost because
there will be plenty of profitable upside once the results are known (as long as the purchases come in early).
We therefore strip out any gut feelings and personal preferences of a Noboa victory and assume the election
is a 50/50 coinflip.
If Luisa wins, I will not sell my Salazar (SRL.v) shares as I think they have very limited downside and should
rebound fairly quickly. However, if this happens the task is to sit firmly on the sidelines and let the panic
selling play out fully. Once waters have calmed, the obvious buy would be Lundin Gold (LUG.to) as it will not
be affected by any audit, won’t be closed by a moratorium (unless the González government wants to commit
political suicide in its first days) and will continue on its impressive and profitable way. From there we’ll be
able to monitor just how enthusiastic President Luisa is about stopping mine development and appeasing
local anti-mining organizations (I’d expect it to depend greatly on the project in question).
If Noboa wins I buy Lumina Gold (LUM.v) the next day, it’s that simple. For sure I won’t get the cheapest
price, but that won’t matter because it would all-but guarantee the Cangrejos project were permitted, funded
and built. Another on the potential shopping list is SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L), which would get a massive
boost from the news. However, be clear that if Noboa wins all mining stocks exposed to Ecuador would move
significantly higher no matter which bucket I put them in above. For example, we could still debate the future
of the Warintza project and whether it ever gets built, but there’s no doubt Solaris would find its Chinese
buyer given this sort of national political green light.
The bottom line: The Ecuador election has moved into its final stage and along with it, the issue of mining
has come to the fore and marks a clear cleavage point between the candidates. The decision by Luisda
González to agree to a deal with Pachakutik in order to win its support (and presumably, most of its 5.25% of
votes gathered in round one may make good reading on a pure math basis, but by moving into a more
radical left wing policy she’s taking a risk and leaving the political centre to Noboa. If I absolutely had to
make a call I’d say Noboa wins on April 13th (and if so confidently expect Rafael Correa to call the election
rigged) but without much confidence and the fact I prefer to wait and see the result before making any
further investment (in LUM.v or anywhere else) is its own testimony.
Stocks to Follow
With some qualification, it was a good week for the personal portfolio and the Stocks to Follow list even as
the basic headcount was an level-sounding and uninspired eight winners (RIO.v, EGO, GROY, SURG.v, OCI.v,
PGDC.v, PAU.v, MENE.v) three unchanged (MAI.v, ARG.to, MIRL.cse) and eight losers (MARI.to, ABRA.to,
AAG.v, SRL.v, RPX.v, PGZ.v, IPT.v, LUM.v). There were big moves were in both directions so let’s do the
larger losers first, so step forward Salazar (SRL.v down 10.5%) and Aftermath (AAG.v down 8.9%). As for the
bigger winners, it’s a decent list and while Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up 66.7%) wins in pure percentage terms,
that move is as much to do with its tinycap status and lack of traded volume as anything else. So other gains
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impressed this desk more, such as Surge Copper (SURG.v up 26.1%), Orecap Inv (OCI.v up 18.2%),
Provenance (PAU.cse up 15.2%) and Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 12.8%), that last one making real difference to the
personal account.
The other improvement for the Stocks to Follow list is more cosmetic, as by lucky timing four of our positions
managed to flip back into positive territory in the same week, making things look healthier at face value. That
leads us into the wrap so we currently have 19 open positions at the moment, one under the self-imposed
maximum. Fourteen of the list are now in the green, five are in the red and as all of those are now at the
bottom of the table, things are looking better.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.345 64.3% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.88 10.0% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$16.77 5.3% Added Feb'25, cheaply valued
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.91 24.0% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.17 69.5% Quality Cu dev, FS due
AbraSilver ABRA.to STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$3.27 19.8% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Gold Royalty Co GROY STR BUY U$1.40 9-Mar-25 U$1.44 2.9% Mispriced, great entry point
Aftermath Silver AAG.v spec buy $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.51 20.0% #2 silver trade
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.085 6.3% Ecuador elex/buyout trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.115 4.5% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v spec buy $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.145 38.1% bulk copper in good address
Pan Global Res PGZ.v spec buy C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.13 -31.6% Cu jr, some recovery recently
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.065 8.3% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v spec buy C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.20 -33.3% Silver spec, done nothing
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Lumina Gold LUM.v WATCH C$0.63 23-Feb-25 C$0.60 -4.8% Ecuador gold developer
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.05 150.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.19 123.5% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.15 -66.7% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO Mar'25 C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.64 -8.9% closed badly timed trade
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies.
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): ADDED. Last week’s main
fundies note “Gold Royalty Corp (GROY): Adding on a
misunderstood Q4 earnings report” laid out the rationale and I
didn’t wait long on the trigger, so probably paid a little more
than a better market timer would for the additional shares. As
seen above, the cost average has climbed 4c to the new
U$1.40 but that’s okay I suppose, what matters more is
having what I now consider a decently-sized position and one
8

that won’t make me feel too silly if it runs hard. Then again, when they go up you never own enough.
The ten-day chart (right) shows GROY was popular buy all week (aside the Friday afternoon sector-wide
slump, we can forgive it that). The top price paid on the week was U$1.50, which means there’s a gap of just
3c left to fill to get back to where we were before that misunderstood Q4 report dropped. When the gap fills
(and not “if”), we’ll be back to the point of real departure for this stock. Target is Price/book equilibrium and
as that’s over three dollars, there’s plenty more to come from this trade.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Before commenting on some of the positive moves and good news from the list
this week, let’s tackle the elephant in the room. These two charts show the comparative performance of
MAI.v against GDXJ and while it’s been slightly better than that particular benchmark in 1q25 (barring one
day, Monday March 31st) in the chart below left, that’s coming off a poor 2024 and we really need more from
a smallcap to justify its performance. Meanwhile below right, the last ten days have seen MAI treading water
again and failing to rise with the crowd of PM plays (e.g, RIO.v, EGO from my own list, plenty of others to
choose from), the last recent rally on the back of the closure of the Sabre Gold deal petering out quickly.
The house Top Pick and personal largest position (though RIO.v is now getting close), Minera Alamos
remains in laggard territory and with a lack of permitting out of Mexico in 2025 to date, it’s no surprise to
have seen an uptick in complaints about the company and my continued adherence to the trade hitting my
inbox (yes, I do read them even if I’m ignorant and fail to reply). So, three things to say:
 Feel free to ignore me on MAI.v. Feel free to disagree with me if you believe the advice offered on this
stock is poor. What’s more, feel free to unsubscribe from this service if you consider my pro-MAI bias is
a reflection of my weak vision of the juniors market. I’m sticking with this trade, I know I’m right about
its intrinsic value, I also know I can be insanely stubborn from time to time (just ask the missus). I
went through the same type of prolonged pain and suffering with Rio2 Ltd and fielded the same type of
complaints, just swapping out Chilean politics for Mexican. I’m aware of the opportunity cost of owning
a long-term UNCH position (and a large one to boot) at times when plenty of other stocks move
upward because I’m going through it myself here.
 I still firmly believe it’s merely a matter of time before permits start flowing out of the Sheinbaum
SEMARNAT. We’ve had a trickle (e.g. Orla, Fresnillo, Alamos) and we’ve also had plenty of good vibes
and positive jungledrums on what’s happening in the internal bureaucracy. What’s more the overtly
anti-mining rhetoric we saw from the top down in the AMLO admin has gone away. Yes, for sure there
are still pockets of anti-mining policymakers here and there, both at national and regional levels but
that’s true for most any country. The difference here is inertia, Mexico has been a long time doing
nothing as regards permits and there’s no momentum behind the permitting process, when (not if) that
changes we’ll look back at this painful period with wry smiles.
 We’re at that time of year when TSXV companies go through a prolonged period of relative silence.
That comes to an end at the back end of next month, when the YE results of Venture-listed companies
are due, those annuals followed quickly by the 1q25 earnings report. It’s a long period without solid
numbers and doesn’t help the cause.
Bottom line: I’m not always patient, but when a stock is so brain-numbingly cheap compared to its potential
and when all that’s really stopping it from flourishing in LatAm bureaucracy (I’m used to its pace of
9

operations), my patience is all-but unlimited. I don’t like having this much cash locked up in a long-term non-
performer, but any antsy moment see me comparing the annoyance to the potential reward and when I do, it
continues to be a no-brainer hold. Making money in the market sometimes means you have to run against
the tide, make unpopular statements and hold opinions that annoy others. That’s me and MAI, which remains
an obvious and strongly held Top Pick at the IKN Weekly. I’m right about this company, you’ll see.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): A pleasant, peer-beating +7.2% on the week, as EGO’s recovery run gathers
momentum, means the personal trade is back in the green after way too long in the penalty box. It’s been a
painful and somewhat embarrassing Q1, having picked EGO out of the Tier 2 pack only to see it under-
perform most of its peers (see today’s Producer Basket for more evidence) but hope springs eternal and if the
last couple of weeks are anything to go by, the market has finally worked out how darned cheap this thing is
compared to its current production, its near-term growth via Skouries and its strong organic pipeline.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): The top price paid for ARG
last week was C$2.05, the stock managing to break the
C$2.00 line very briefly late Tuesday / early Wednesday.
That move and subsequent drop brought negative memories
of 2024, when the stock did nearly the exact same move
before dropping away quickly. But I’m not superstitious and
there’s no reason to suppose history will repeat, so instead
of that a chart with the timescale on that, we go with a 10-
day comparative and considering the way COPX has
dropped, ARG has done well enough, tracked the copper
price moves closely and held on to gains over the last two
weeks.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to): Last weekend’s note on ABRA volatility was nicely timed,
considering what we saw Friday:
Last week we picked out just spike drops in ABRA of between 6.3% and 9.2% in the last five weeks, now we
can add the 8.8% drop seen Friday to the list so if you want my very-near-term advice, buy the dip. It’s
worked the last seven times, after all. But if you want a better call, buy and hold this until it gets to the $5.76
target or until it gets bought out. They may even happen on the same day.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): We’ve been banging on about the lack of interest and volume in SURG for weeks,
making the obvious point that it wouldn’t take
much to get this moving sharply with copper
doing what it’s been doing. We also noted in
IKN827 last weekend there was a small sniff
when someone paid up for 150k shares at 11.5c
and sure enough, last week the follow-through
volume was more than enough to see
momentum build. SURG made it to 15c before a
some profit-takers made the Friday close 14.5c
10

(cannot blame them and suddenly, anyone who picked at the stock quietly and accumulated the 10c shares is
looking smart.
Is there more to come? With 290.9m shares out, at C$0.145 the market cap of C$42.18m (approx U$29.5m)
is SURG still cheap for a 6Bn lb CuEq project with a PEA published? We recognize Surge will always get
pushback from the tire-kickers who get sniffy about the low average grade (without ever bothering to
investigate why large tonnage low-graders are economic in BC Canada) and essentially it’s a pennystock play,
they are never hairless. There are all sorts of comparisons available, I’ll pick another hotpot stock from last
week Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v, see Market Watching) and opine that at C$113.6m for a copper project
that doesn’t have a hope of being permitted does indeed make SURG at Berg/Ootsa look cheap indeed. This
is a speculative trade rather than a core investment position and I’ll happily take profits given the chance, but
I won’t make any proactive decisions until 20c shows.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): We do a lot on the Ecuador macro scene as it relates to mining this week and
along the way in the main fundies section, SRL.v got a mention (as a hold for the time being). Last week saw
plenty of Ecuador-exposed stocks have a nervous shiver and on that subject….
Lumina Gold (LUM.v): ….here’s another one. On the Watch List without any personal ownership yet, LUM
remains my #1 target if the political winds blow in favour of Noboa on April 13th. It has size, trading volume
and is advanced enough to become a direct beneficiary
of a win for the pro-mining candidate. But also and
equally, it’s at that critical stage when a win for the now
overtly anti-mining Luisa would cause serious damage to
this share price. 60c may not sound like much, but with
422m shares out that’s C$250m+ and not even taking
into account the C$60m liabilities on its books, mostly
via a streaming deal that won’t go away just because a
new government decides to place a moratorium on
mining project development.
You can trade using a higher risk tolerance if you prefer,
but personally I’ll be much happier buying this at a
higher price but with the knowledge that Daniel Noboa continues as President.
Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v): The liquid-ish assets table this weekend shows…
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.465 5.48 2.2
ARIC.v 7.39 0.48 3.55 1.4
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.28 1.17 0.5
XXIX.v 39.097 0.105 4.11 1.7
MERG.v 5.125 0.03 0.15 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 15.19 6.1
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 16.39 6.6
At 247.714 S/O
….the arb to OCI’s market price has all-but disappeared. Which is odd compared to nearly every other week,
but also means its weekend price of 6.5c is unlikely to last if the components you see above, particularly AE,
ARIC and XXIX, don’t move up substantially.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): We mentioned in passing last weekend that the next tranche from Wheaton (WPM) was
likely to drop soon, as things turned out we only had to wait one day (10):
VANCOUVER, BC - Rio2 Limited (“Rio2” or “the Company”) (TSXV: RIO; OTCQX: RIOFF; BVL: RIO)
announces that, further to its news releases dated November 16, 2021, March 29, 2022, and October
11

21, 2024, it has received a second deposit payment of US$25,000,000 from Wheaton Precious
Metals International Ltd. in connection with the previously announced amended and restated precious
metals purchase agreement on Rio2’s Fenix Gold Project in Chile (the “Gold Stream”).
That’s good news and a further franking of the “everything on schedule” message we’ve been getting from
Fenix all year. In further positive news, the share price duly busted out of its recent trading range and legged
up to the 90c-or-about level, which is particularly pleasing for this desk as it means my personal trade is back
in the green. Happy days and every reason to get used to seeing that colour there.
The Copper Basket
After thirteen weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 3.94% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 610.11 2.22 55.2%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 405.15 0.135 3.8%
3 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 370.08 2.30 39.4%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 148.409 338.37 2.28 55.1%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 334.73 1.97 3.7%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 275.50 2.21 7.8%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 168.38 0.82 10.8%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 157.10 0.62 12.7%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 86.31 0.57 -14.9%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 77.86 0.465 -32.6%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 44.34 0.37 -41.3%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 27.09 0.105 -4.5%
13 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 172.61 25.89 0.15 -6.3%
14 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 22.10 0.63 5.0%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 11.70 0.205 -34.9%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 3.94%
A negative week for The Copper Basket to round off the The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
quarter, with our average losing 5.21% from a tally of 10.0%
9.0%
just three winners (REG.v, XXIX.v, LBC.v) and one 8.0%
7.0%
unchanged stock (KBX.cse) versus the raft of eleven
6.0%
losers. We’ll just note the bigger drops in that long list 5.0%
4.0%
which are Pampa Metals (PM.cse down 11.8%), Hercules
3.0%
Metals (BIG.v down 11.4%) and Trilogy Metals (TMQ.to 2.0%
1.0%
down 10.5%), but there were plenty of other significant 0.0%
drops of between 6% and 9% in the mix, too. -1.0%
The drops weren’t less about a collapse in the price of
copper, more about the limit reached by
speculation. Copper prices continued to
pile higher early week on the red hot
Comex exchange and finally found their
peak at over U$5.30/lb for the near-dated
contract before finally running out of
steam. The reverse when it came was
sharp and even though the Friday close
price was roughly equal to this time last
week, the damage was done to an over-
stretched market and down they all went
12
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs

Price difference between
LME and Comex copper contracts
13
44.4 31.5 44.4 31.5 44.4 81.5 44.4 12.5
U$/lb LME
Comex 6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Cash 2mo 4mo 6mo
source: Comex, LME
Same as last week, here above are the charts showing the arb between Comex and LME copper prices with
the spread having grown between the two. LME copper touched U$4.55/lb on Tuesday but fell back once
news spread that the Trump copper tariff may come earlier than previously expected. The reasoning being
that with the tariff set, the arbitrage opportunity for multiple contracts would dry up. Added to the mix is the
uncertainty that copper already in transit toward The USA may not qualify for a non-tariff entry price, another
risk factor that traders took into account. Here’s how Reuters reported the cooling of the copper arb trade on
Friday (11):
“Uncertainty is high as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs aimed at the countries
responsible for the bulk of the U.S. trade deficit on April 2 and his already-announced 25% tariffs on auto imports
would take effect on April 3.
Expectations that Washington’s separate investigation on whether to impose new import tariffs in copper would
take months shifted to weeks on Wednesday, narrowing down the window for arbitrage play between the most
active U.S. Comex copper futures and the LME ones.”
With fewer reasons for speculation on LME-held copper, down went its price while the Comex price remained
more stubborn. This story will continue to run and even when we know more about Trump’s plans for copper
(Tariff? If so, when? And how much? And any exceptions? And will the tariff change?) it won’t be the end to
the speculation, so we in observer world will have to get used to dual pricing on The Good Doctor (maybe he
can prescribe himself lithium for a case of split personality…).
We move on and switch gears, as today isn’t just the end of the month and the long-term inventory charts…
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj ram
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME source: Cochilco
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj ram
Arb between Comex and LME
contracts, weekly change
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
…which show the draw down in stocks we’ve tracked carefully over the last four weeks (not dwelling on these
this time around, nothing really new to report), but it’s also the end of the quarter so it’s time to dial up the
first snapshot chart of our 15 Copper Basket Components to see who’s been the best and the worst of the
bunch:
10.01 69.21 64.51 03.01 33.31 55.51 48.01 62.41 55.61 79.11 73.51 82.71
% March 16th
22 March 23rd
20 march 30th
18
16
14
12
10 8 6
4
2
0
Cash 2mo 4mo 6mo
source: Comex, LME, IKN calcs

The 2025 Copper Basket after 13 weeks
14
%2.55 %1.55
%4.93
%7.21 %8.01 %8.7 %0.5 %8.3 %7.3 %5.4- %3.6- %9.41- %6.23- %9.43- %3.14-
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% 20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
v.XTA ot.UCSA ot.QMT v.GIB ot.YDF v.GER esc.XBK ot.GLOS v.EDLA v.XIXX esc.MP v.HCH v.EA v.CBL v.UCE
source: TSX, CSE, IKN calcs
Q1 has belonged to three stocks and I have to be honest, I wouldn’t have picked any of them to out-perform.
Well, perhaps Arizona Sonoran because of the successful small trade we ran on it early in the year, but I
didn’t expect that rally to continue the way it has. But even ASCU was beaten this quarter, and Atex
Resources (ATX.v) has captured the imaginations of speculators looking to emulate the success of The
Lundins at Vicuña. As noted a couple of editions ago, this is the type of trade I’m prone to missing as once
the project killing detail is identified I can’t let it go. It may have grade and it may have size, but Valeriano is
located in a remote zone that will need water supplied from the coast, most likely desal, and then run as a
block cave operation at high altitude. That’s a difficult combo for costs and efficient operations and even
though you get very confident statements about the company’s proposed solutions if you speak to the sell
side anal ysts who cover the stock, I am and will remain unconvinced. Third of the three is Trilogy (TMQ.to),
which was brief #1 last week before profit-takers moved in and the stock took a sharp dive. Included in the
2025 list to monitor the speculation on the Trump Trade, TMQ has gathered more and more momentum
without a single penny of my money even considering joining the party. More fool me.
Aside those three, we’ve seen reasonable, average-y performance in Q1 from a range of six or even eight
stocks (if you include the modest losers). None of those are dead, all have a chance of making a bigger
impression in the quarters of 2025 to come.
As for the real losers, I’d start the count at Hot Chili (HCH) which hasn’t managed to wow the audience with
its PFS the way it did with the PEA two years ago (see below). Then come American Eagle (AE.v) which
hasn’t managed to live up to its heavily hyped reputation in 2025 so far (there’s time yet), Libero Copper
(LBC.v) which is doing what all Ian Slater scams eventually do, then finally a surprise to see Element 29
(ECU.v) at the bottom of the pile. Since the much-much anticipated assay results from the long hole at Elida
it’s been one-way traffic and that’s probably the most interesting loser in the field today, as its Flor de Cobre
project in the South of Peru could really shine this time around, all it needs is the final agreements with locals
and the drill to start turning, but in the meantime I’m not going to get in the way of the dedicated
seller.Let’s1 see how far it drops before making a decision.
That wraps up this week’s extra edition chartfest, we now return to our scheduled programmed and the
regular look at the weekly changes in copper inventories, data supplied by Cochilco:
 The top is in for world inventories and while that was already our supposition, last week confirmed
it. Overall stocks in the three official systems dropped by an aggregate 31,994 metric tonnes (mt)
to close at 533,724mt.
 The lion’s share of the drop happened at the Shanghai SHFE, where copper stocks dropped by a
significant 21,032mt to finish the week at 235,296mt and the dedicated SHFE charts below show
what that means at this time of year. Suffice to say here that 2025 is not a repeat of 2024, not
even close. That’s a good thing.
 The LME joined in the party, with its overall stocks down 11,675mt on the week to close at
212,925mt and nearly all of that came from its Asia warehouses, where stocks dropped by
11,325mt.
 The Comex added 763mt to close at 85,503mt No biggie.

Both dedicated SHFE charts this week, to mark the end of the quarter and to make sure the significance of
last week’s inventory move is understood. The top visual captures it best and this time around, there’s not
going to be any repeat of the stubbornly high inventory levels that kept SHFE inventories over the 300kmt
line right though the Northern summer months.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von ht62
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
A lot of reporting ink has been spilled over the record low TC/RC rates, driven by Chinese smelters fighting
for limited concentrate supply, however there’s a good reason the smelters are willing to accept deals at
fractions of the charges of previous years (and even, briefly, negative charges). It may be hidden behind
narrative, but Chinese demand for copper has remained very strong and 2025’s copper market doesn’t care
who is in the White House.
Now for notes on a few of our basket stocks:
Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax): When Hot Chili published the results of its PFS on Wednesday evening
Americas time, after a quick scan of the headlines chosen by the company and the positive sounding bullet
points listed at the top of the NR (12), the first thing that came to mind to this desk was to compare the main
parameters of this March 2025 PFS to those of the June 2023 PEA results. Here’s a list:
 PEA Capex U$1.046Bn
 PFS Capex U$1.292Bn
 PEA Expansion Capex U$708m
 PFS Expansion Capex U$1.347Bn
 PEA Sustaining Capex U$1.014Bn
 PFS Sustaining Capex U$811m
 Total PEA U$2.768Bn
 Total PFS U$3.45Bn
 PEA: IRR 21% using U$3.85/lb copper
 PFS: IRR 19% using U$4.30/lb copper

By combining just under two years of cost inflation and the added rigour of a PFS-level report to that of a
PEA, the front-end capex rises by U$250m to nearly U$1.3Bn and the expansion capex by well over half a
billion dollars. If we consider that the “expansion capex” comes very early into the production schedule (the
above chart from the new corporate presentation (13)), being all part of the same plan it’s difficult to
separate one from the other. As for the returns, there are other metrics of course but the drop in IRR to
under 20% is notable. The PEA expected better returns at a lower copper price so for a closer approximation,
we can adjust the 2023 PEA to the new assumed “base case” of U$4.30/lb copper (way too high as a base, in
my opinion). This chart comes from page 595 of the 2023 HCH Costa Fuego PEA, red ink added by your
author:
At an assumed base case of U$4.30/lb, the PEA would have returned an IRR of 27%, that’s now down to
19% in the latest study. While it’s typical to see project economics deteriorate as it goes through from the
world of hope and pretty pictures that is the PEA to the more rigorous PFS level, HCH is (or maybe was) one
of the more highly touted and aggressively marketed copper explorecos and they tend to attract true
believers, the type that refuse to accept cruel reality even when it’s ground into their faces (for another
example, see the note on New Found Gold (NFG.v) (NFGC) in today’s Market Watching section, below). So on
the news, the main Australian ticker rallied briefly before sellers showed and once the news and its
comparatives had been digested, HCH sold down.
Unsurprisingly the action was roughly the same in the
secondary Canadian ticker (the one we follow) but there was
something of a lag before volume showed in the sales, a bit
of a sleeper effect before Friday’s selling. It smacks of retail
finally realizing this project is mediocre at best, with high
costs even after the hugely expensive water pipeline was
farmed out to a separate company. It’s one of those projects
that can make a case for itself as economic, but is average
at best and will always be subordinate to projects with
better operating economics, or size or easier capex terms. A
mid-league project that up to last week had ideas above its
station, there’s a reason the long-term chart looks the way it
does.
Pampa Metals (PM.cse): When we last reported on PM, it had just announced its move to buy Rugby
Resources (RUG.v), mainly for its Cobrasco copper project in Colombia (that we don’t like, as the very difficult
community issues there are the reason Rugby hasn’t drilled it on its own account). This week we got new
news from the company on two fronts.
Firstly and related to the deal, on Thursday PM announced its coordinated placements with RUG were moving
forward as planned for total gross proceeds of C$5.5m (14). If things keep going to plan we now have an
16

estimated total number of shares out for the new entity of 172.61m and as from this weekend (see table
above) we’re using that as our assumed shares out total, which values “New Pampa” at just over C$25m.
Then on Friday we got drill assay results (15) from PM’s main Piuquenes project in San Juan Argentina (next
door to Aldebaran’s Altar project) Pampa Metals Step Out Drilling Intersects 152m at 0.40% Cu, 0.23 g/t Au
at the Piuquenes Central Cu-Au Deposit, Argentina. While PIU.05 is a valid result on a step-out, it doesn't
compare to previous holes cut into Piuquenes that cut 558m of
0.38% Cu, or 414m of 0.4/% Cu into the guts of the system.
PM took time to tease the next hole, PIU-08, which is in the
assay labs now and apparently went through “strong
mineralization”, also on a step hole from the central zone.
The market interpreted the result of PIU-05 correctly, a decent
result that limits the size of this porphyry complex and the
stock sold off as a result. The current 15c line is an important
one to hold, as the stock price hasn’t been lower since the
current set-up of PM began. With their decision to buy a
socially very difficult project via the incorporation of Rugby,
the risk is now high for these shares.
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): We did the same three-cornered comparative with my preferred core copper
holding Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) above, so for further
fun and entertainment here’s SOLG in its main UK ticker
against COPX and the copper continuous contract (HG00):
Nowhere near as good as ARG and something extra seems
to be affecting SOLG. This desk points the finger directly at
political nerves and the way the selling accelerated into the
Friday close as word spread that Luisa González had decided
to court the indigenous vote by playing the anti-mining card.
Same story as LUM and SRL in fact, also as seen above.
The Producer Basket
After 13 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 28.32% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1127 54.19 48.08 29.2%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 53.46 107.36 37.3%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 33.46 19.14 23.5%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 29.87 155.47 32.2%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.78 2.88 18.0%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 3.44 16.77 12.8%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.85 3.60 45.2%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 2.34 4.72 18.6%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 2.25 7.57 35.7%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 149.891 1.76 11.75 30.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 28.32%
The last full week of the quarter and another positive week for the precious metals producer complex, driven
by the continued popularity in gold over U$3,000/oz. It wasn’t all one-way traffic though, with two losers
(FNV, BTG) in the mix including the big drop suffered by B2Gold (BTG down 7.7%) on more headwinds from
17

Goose (see below). Thanks to a handful of bigger percentage winners such as New Gold (NGD up 11.8%),
Sandstorm (SAND up 11.5%), OceanaGold (OGC.to up 9.8%), Eldorado (EGO up 7.7%) and Wesdome
(WDOFF up 6.4%), even with the headwind of having BTG as 10% of our performance and a lacklustre
display from the Tier 1 names we managed to beat the +2.4% put on by the GDX benchmark and the deficit
is down to just over 6%. Still a mountain to climb after just one quarter, though.
It’s the end of the quarter and, as is our wont, we run a comparative snapshot of our ten charges for the
year to see how they’re getting on. Here’s the visual, notes below:
The 2025 Producer Basket components after 13 weeks
18
%2.54
%3.73 %7.53 %2.23 %8.03 %2.92
%5.32
%6.81 %0.81 %8.21
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
DGN MEA DNAS VNF FFODW MEN DLOG ot.CGO GTB OGE
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
40% comparative to GDX control
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs
First and foremost, despite the under-performance to date compared to GDX it is good to see all ten of our
2025 Producer Basket stocks in positive territory after the first quarter, that’s not a bad thing and those who
claim that the gold miners aren’t moving up with the metal might want to consider their prejudices. As for
details, New Gold (NGD) is the success story of the new stocks for 2025 and I’d have been in serious trouble
if it weren’t for picking this one out of the pack. When introducing it to thr 2025 in IKN815, I wrote, “After
spending five long years in mining purgatory (or six if you include the back end of 2018 and the front of
2024), NGD has finally started to show real recovery, an improving balance sheet and is on the way to the
U$3 to U$5 trading range it used to command.” That’s playing out well and after just one quarter it’s already
inside the (admittedly wide) range, thanks to good results from both its assets and a key factor of adding
mine life to Rainy River. In #2 spot the continually impressive Agnico Eagle (AEM, up over 37% YTD and now
less than a billion away from displacing Newmont (NEM) as the world’s biggest publicly traded precious
metals mining company. Then come two royaltycos, with Sandstorm’s (SAND) recent spurt taking it in front
of Franco-Nevada (FNV) despite the positive vibes now coming from Cobre Panama, FNV owner of a juicy
NSR on that.
Meanwhile, the wooden spoon for 2025 YTD brings personal shame and embarrassment, as my personal pick
for gold producer exposure Eldorado Gold (EGO) is the clear laggard of the pack so far. True it’s picked up in
the last couple of weeks, but its quarter was punctuated by negative news flow on Skouries capex and
timeline, then a okay-not-great Q1 of production for which it was seemingly punished twice. Other laggards
include B2Gold (BTG, see below) and OceanaGold (OGC.to), which is another surprise for this desk as
strategically, it’s in the right market cap bracket and with enough gold production to be in the sweet spot of
this current bull market. Once again, I’m left wondering how much I truly suck at this game.
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): When B2Gold bought Sabina Gold & Silver in early 2023 and its Back River
project, it must have thought Goose would be where it gets its golden egg. Instead and so far at least, it’s
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
9%
8%
ikn 7%
gdx control 6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
source: IKN calcs
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

turned out to be a White Elephant of significant proportion having delivered nothing but development delays
and capex hikes in the two years since purchase. Last week’s news from Goose (16) sounded upbeat enough
from the long-winded headline “B2Gold Announces Updated Mineral Reserve Life of Mine Plan for the Goose
Project; Commencing a Study to Expand Mill Throughput at the Goose Project; B2Gold Confirms Construction
and Mine Development Cash Expenditure Estimate of C$1,540 million”, as the capex blowout now seems to
be contained, but this but this time BTG found a new way of disappointing with the updated resource count.
Here’s the table from the NR…
…and for Goose, the counts are down substantially. Previously, Indicated resources came to 6.33m oz and
inferred 2.86m oz, both those dropping and in the case of the indicated, dropping big. B TG stressed that it
was taking a conservative route with these new numbers to make sure they had a firm baseline from which
the resource might expand again, but it’s still a bummer to see so many ounces apparently “disappear”. If
you ask me (and even if you don’t), the recent resource definition drilling work done has probably seen BTG
move indicated rock into inferred (i.e. requires more drilling) and then inferred tonnages have been hit by the
higher cost base that turns ore into waste at the
presumed U$2,100/oz gold price used. With gold trading
where it is, BTG has decided to focus on its quality, high-
margin ounces and the presumed higher cost base did
damage to the model. Still this type of headline does nasty
things to stock prices (chart right) and BTG probably
deserved what it got last week and as the news is still
fresh, we may see further pressure tomorrow Monday if
any more beaten-up holders decide this was one
smackdown too many and throw in the towel. What BTG
now needs to do is simple: Deliver At Goose. We have a
confirmed timeline, a confirmed capex and a confirmed
resource, the equity drop last week is now baked in and
means the shares will indeed re-rate nicely as long as Clive & Co can deliver on their (highly adapted
promises)
Sandstorm Gold (SAND): What caused this sudden spurt in SAND shares? My best guess is a company
telling the market things it wants to hear. It’s no secret that SAND does its best to court big desk US insto
money these days and once thing those suited and booted
brigade likes is share buybacks. So on Tuesday (17) SAND
did two things they like by 1) renewing its NCIB share
buyback facility, with the option to buy back up to 20m
shares between now and this time next year but also 2)
made it clear they are currently being aggressive with the
buybacks, having bought around 2.6m shares since its Year
End financials were published six weeks ago. The result was
impressive and thanks to a bit of lucky timing with the
sector rally, SAND moved up as seen right. That’s a big
move for this type of company and while writing up these
19

notes on a pleasant Sunday morning, I cannot help but think that if the mediocre end of the royalty/streamer
world such as SAND can move up, just how much upside is there in GROY.
The TinyCaps List
After 13 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 3.10% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 14.73 0.11 -35.3%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 17.64 0.125 -13.8%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 7.92 0.08 -38.5%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 22.69 0.13 -10.3%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 37.96 0.50 28.2%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 11.58 0.12 50.0%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 268.9 32.27 0.12 -7.7%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 16.11 0.15 76.5%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 24.74 0.47 -14.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 132.955 17.95 0.135 -3.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 3.10%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps basket average continues to tread water at TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
5%
this just-over-three-percent level, no macro direction 4%
3%
detected in the smallest of the mining sector stocks in
2%
2025 to date. This week saw four winners (BRO.v, EDG.v, 1%
KDK.v, LMS.v) from our ten, one remained unchanged 0%
-1%
(VAU.v) and six were losers (CN.v, ELY.v, MOG.v, RDU.v, -2%
STS.v)m though overall, the moves were small with just -3%
-4%
one double figure percentage winner (LMS.v up 14.3%)
and one double figure percentage loser (MOG.v down
11.1%). Now for some lightning quick notes on a couple
of others in the list:
Mogotes Minerals (MOG.v): I commend MOG for getting out there and making noise in the sector, with
two more NRs out of the company last week. The first (18) announces the closure of the deal for its Filo Sur
land package. This includes the issuance of 10.714m shares to the vendor, Golden Arrow (and I’d expect Joe
Grosso to cash those in sooner rather than later) so that puts the new share count at an IKN-estimated
268.9m…it’s getting up there and means these days, MOG is a C$30m+ market capper.
The second NR last week came a day later on Thursday 27th (19) to announce “…the start of ground based
geophysical survey and further positive observations from ongoing reconnaissance of the recently optioned
claims directly south of Filo del Sol.” Which means they’re busy, but for me it’s just another reminder that
we’re going to have to wait a while before MOG gets a drill into its project. Until such time, it’s one to watch
rather than act upon, especially at over C$30m for what is untested territory in the high Andes.
20
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Radius Gold (RDU.v): Another week, no drill permits. That’s all.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): Just after closing its recent
42c funding round, in IKN826 we wrote that “…KDK at
this level offers decent risk/reward for your
speculative copper money, its trading history includes
plenty of spike moments and the potential for a quick
flip win. Personally, I’ll stick with Surge Copper
(SURG.v) but KDK is a valid alternative.” That’s now
playing out and the 50c Friday close means it put in a
decent performance. Volume continues to be spotty
and that’s something to consider before deciding to
trade this stock, we’re coming up to the moment we
get the maiden resources estimate (MRE) on its MDN
property and if the jungle drums start to sound good
on that, I’d expect volume to perk up before the
announcement.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Just one week after sniffing at the company for a lack of oomph, I’m starting to
change my view on LMS, have been taking a more detailed look at what’s going on there and have been
generally impressed. I’m going to take another week to come to a decision on this stock (perhaps two, I have
a couple of people to speak to about LMS) and will reserve judgment until then, but expect a more detailed
write up on this stock soon. Likeable, but I still wouldn’t chase the price while volume remains this patchy.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Peru: Three acts on Tia Maria
Act 1: In our preview to PDAC 2025 and what to expect from LatAm delegations, we wrote this about Peru:
“The delegation is headed by FinMin in Peru José Salardi (a Standard technocrat) and Mining and Energy
Minister Jorge Montero (an idiot). Expect Montero to use carefully chosen words to leave the impression
that the highly contentious Tia Maria copper project starts construction this year, when in fact all they
have is “an intention to begin” that won’t happen because community opposition to the mine is as strong
as ever. Without the social license, Tia Maria cannot happen (but they won’t tell you that).”
Act 2: This link goes to Peru trade media “Revista Minera and one of dozens of reports from PDAC 2025
covering Peru Day (20), here’s a translation of its first paragraph:
“The announcement (by Mining and Energy Minister Jorge Montero) of the start of construction of the
Tia Maria project in Arequipa is a positive development for mining in Peru ands sends a message of
trustworthiness to investors. After years of suspension due to social conflicts, the project has
managed to overcome barriers via dialogue and social commitment.”
Act 3: This weekend’s report (21) from Peru’s #1 news radio channel, RPP, from the locality, entitled
(translated) “The Tia Maria Case: Farmer in the Tambo Valley present a blocking order against the Southern
Peru mining project”. Here’s the information from the report:
Farmers from the Tambo Valley, in Arequipa region, have filed a blocking order against the Ministry of
Energy and Mining, the Environmental Fiscalization and Evaluation Organism (OEFA) and the
National Environmental Certification for Sustainable Investment Service (SENACE) and the Southern
Peru mining company regarding the Tia Maria project.
And…
In a communiqué, the (farmers and residents) organizations stated that the blocking order comes in
addition to the indefinite local strike action began by local communities to protest against the mining
project on February 17th.
21

According to Miguel Meza, spokesperson for the Tambo Valley, the population are denouncing that
the government and the company are trying to impose the project “without having undertaken an
adequate process of socialization in the affected communities.”
And…
Meanwhile, David Velazco, director of Fedepaz, said that the blocking order required the Peru
judiciary to declare null and void the Tia Maria Environmental Impact Study (EIA), approved in 2014
as its validity expired in 2019, according to the Peruvian law and the mining code.
In other words, our pre-PDAC prediction was spot on. When it comes to Tia Maria, always take the under.
Market Watching
New Found Gold (NGFC) (NFG.v): Iceberg wins and Eric loses
Between September and November last year, we ran four articles in Market Watching on New Found Gold
(NFG.v) (NFGC), the series prompted by a well-written short report out of Iceberg Research dated September
19th. Our main note was “New Found Gold (NFG.to) (NFGC): A Queensway crystallization moment” published
in IKN801 dated September 22nd and the final came just after NFG filed an updated 43-101 compliant
technical report to SEDAR in November, found in IKN809 dated November 17th. Feel free to peruse those
articles (or if you’re new round here and interested, reach out and I’ll send them over return mail) but suffice
to say that we applauded and agreed with the Iceberg Research take on NFG and its Queensway project in
Newfie CA, watched on unsurprised as its downward trajectory gathered pace and looked forward to 2025
when it was due to announce a Maiden Resource Estimate (MRE) and eventual PEA on the project.
The first of those arrived last week when, on Monday evening, NFG announced its MRE for Queensway (22).
Here’s the pay dirt from the top of the NR:
 Indicated Mineral Resource: 18.0 million tonnes (Mt) grading 2.40 g/t Au¹, for 1.39 million
ounces (Moz).
 Inferred Mineral Resource: 10.7 Mt grading 1.77 g/t Au, for 0.61 Moz.
And here’s how the market reacted:
Ouch. NFG dropped over 20% on the news last week and is now down over 50% since Iceberg published its
report and declared its short position, on September 19th. Fair to say they got this trade call 100% right,
meanwhile main sponsor of NFG Eric Sprott is left with a large portion of huevo en cara (as they say my local
way). While the overall, all-categories MRE ounce count of over 3m oz isn’t bad for an open pit project
proposal and the company will be able to put together an economic-looking PEA come the day later in the
year, we’re a nautical mile away from the hype and blather spoken about this stock and deposit over the
years.
There are dozens of examples of hypebole, blather and nonsense regarding this stock over the years to
choose from, with a long list of usual suspect circus barkers and snake-oil salesmen having convinced the
naïve to buy into this “greatest ever Canadian discovery” story. But if I had to choose one, it would be the
way Eric Sprott, who has ploughed an estimated $260m into this project and owns 19% of shares out,
22

framed Queensway’s orebody when touting the stock to Newfoundlanders during this keynote investor
speech (23) in April 2023 (go to minute 36:45 if you want to check the accuracy of my transcript):
"These holes that are being announced are incredibly valuable. And I'm going to go to the value part,
okay? This is the most important thing to understand what this opportunity might be. If you have one gram
of gold and you have a big open pit, maybe you make 0.2 of a gram of profit. Point two, ok? You got a 30
gram orebody, it'll maybe cost you 2g to mine it. You get 28 grams versus 0.2g. That's 140 times more
profitable, okay! That's 140 times more profitable! Or at 15g that's 60x more profitable! These are orders
of magnitude that are crazy! So when you're looking at what's evolving here, appreciate the significance of
the future profitability of this orebody.
Now I put in the latest news release from April 25th (2023), so that's three or four days ago, I can't read it
anymore but I know what it says, maybe you can read it. But it basically said we have 22m of something
like 17g and I think it was 18m of 12 grams, that's my recollection. And one of the things that's interesting
about that; forty metres, okay? I always like doing this, 40 metres (looks around room)...would that be
about 40 metres to the end of this room? About that, right? You imagine mining something that wide? How
easy is that? 40 metres, oh my God! And that's just the width of the zone! We got the height, the depth,
the strike! I'm just talking about the thickness of the zone. This is like...it'd be a layup mining that. So these
results are out, they continue to amaze with the results.
I've put down here a list of the hits. I mean we don't need to go there, but I guess it's done by grammeters
and some of them are like...what's the top one there? 3,000 grammeters, just out of the park! Here in
Newfoundland!"
Selling a project as some sort of enormous, multiple metres by metres by metres wide/high/deep box of
multiple gram/tonne gold with no end of millions of ounces involved (“…40 metres, oh my God! And that's
just the width of the zone! We got the height, the depth, the strike! I'm just talking about the thickness of
the zone…”) to a non-specialist audience, only to come up with an M+I of 1.3m oz averaging 2.4 g/t is quite
the climbdown, however you have to admire Eric Sprott’s chutzpah because just 24 hours after the resource
was announced, he did a podcast interview on CEO dot
CA (with Denis Laviolette, until very recently himself a
director of NFG) in which he proceeded to ignore the
43-101 grades and imagine numbers in an eventual
mine that were simple extrapolations of the best drill
assays and bore no relation to the cruel reality of the
deposit. The Eric Sprott appearance also coincided with
the mine relief rally as seen in this ten-day chart, but
even that petered out by Friday lunch.
As such, it’s now worth reflecting just how far down the
hole Eric Sprott is with this investment (term used
loosely), as he paid a total of around C$260m for his
19% of the company and the entire NFG market cap is
now C$338m. Once you consider the investment thesis
he worked on when making his quarter billion Canadian dollar decision and how flimsy it now looks, there’s
no reason at all for you to join him down this hole. This is probably the last time NFG is mentioned on these
pages, the end of another sorry junior exploreco story.
West Red Lake Gold (WRLG.v): Makuch leaves
Not a stock that gets much attention on these pages, but it’s one that’s on my market radar and its news last
week warrants a few lines. Here’s how this NR (24) starts:
West Red Lake Gold Mines Ltd. (“West Red Lake Gold” or the “Company”) (TSXV: WRLG) (OTCQB:
WRLGF) announces that Tony Makuch is stepping down from the Board of Directors. Mr. Makuch is
CEO of Discovery Silver, which recently announced the US$425-million acquisition of the Porcupine
Operation from Newmont.
An interesting development that comes on the back of main backers Sprott Resource Corp recently selling a
tranche of their shareholding into the market. Tony Makuch came on board when WRLG merged with the
Ch11’d Pure Gold in order to bring the flagship Madsen mine into the company, even though eh was only
connected as a strategic advisor rather than a PGM board member (either before or after the blow up). His
connections with the Sprott empire are clear (along with plenty of other past connections he’s now CEO of
another of Eric Sprott’s largest holdings, Discovery Silver (DSV.to), as that company re-invents itself) so
23

seeing the Sprott Resource people de-risk part of its large holding in WRLG and then one of its stewards take
a step back is enough to raise a yellow flag on a mine that needs as smooth and trouble free-run to
production as possible.
There are, of course, always logical and reasonable explanations for any corporate move. In this case, we
know Sprott has plenty of exposure to WRLG with 12% of shares, financial debt and royalties on Madsen. It’s
perfectly normal to want to de-risk. As for Makuch, he certainly must be busier now DSV has become an
operator in Canada, rather than just a developer of an open-pit project collecting dust in Mexico, so it’s again
normal and logical to see him reduce his non-essential workload. What’s more, he gave WRLG a glowing
quote in the NR last week. There are always
logical reasons, but by the same token the
experienced junior mining participant should know
by now that the way to approach its actors is to
judge them by what they do, not what they say.
Sprott RC selling shares and one of its trusted
executives leaving the company at what is
basically the same time is enough to warrant a
couple of paragraphs in The IKN Weekly on a
stock that hasn’t seen any coverage here to date.
It’s now as if Sprott is cashing out its first tranche
at a large profit, either. The two year price chart
of WRLG (right) shows the moment when the
company was re-booted (by Frank Giustra, who’s
still at the heart of this deal despite having walked
away from a board seat and diluted his original position to under 10%...for obvious reasons (he can sell
without anyone knowing). Since then and the occasion spike aside, the stock has tracked sideways.
Meanwhile, the chart below offers focus on 2025 YTD
compared to benchmarks GDX and GDXJ and while WRLG
held its own in the first half of Q1, its decision to raise
capital scuppered the rally and it’s failed to return profits
even as gold motored well North of U$3,000/oz in its
current record run.
Which brings up another point; not only has WRLG
“conveniently timed” several of its financings with positive
news and spikes in the share price, but the share count
has increased significantly during the last couple of years
and we’re highly likely to see more of the same, even if
we assume eventual start-up and commissioning goes
smoothly and the mine ramps well in terms of tonnage, delivered grade and recoveries.
At the conclusion of the merger in July, WRLG had 184.1m shares out. Or to be as fair as possible, the end of
its 2023 financial year on November 30th 2023 saw the count at 215.2m shares out after a couple of
necessary and totally understandable capital raises for a gross proceeds total of C$22.8m, money that got the
development ball rolling in correct style. That total is now 345.9m shares out and what’s more, the last NR
from the company also informed the world that WRLG had drawn down the second $7.5m tranche of its
$15m loan facility with Nebari. That’s a lot of extra shares out and with the prospect of more dilution to
come, there’s less reason for retail to get involved and use this company as their leveraged spec on gold.
The issue with WRLG.v is Madsen’s past history and the way Pure Gold blew up untold amounts of dollars
when attempting to start up without understanding enough about the complexity of the orebody. The market
is rightly leery of being whacked by a failed start-up again, so every sign is carefully observed and every
move weighed against the possible outcome. The company’s job is to instill as much confidence as possible
into its plan (and then execute on it successfully, of course) but even then, the above price charts strongly
suggest that the final verdict isn’t going to come before the mine is up, running and proven to be at steady
state and free cash flow positive. That’s a mouthful of words to say that WRLG isn’t going to enjoy the same
24

stages of re-rating as the mine develops and moves into production, instead the “volatile flatline” as seen in
the long-term chart above is likely to continue. As such, if you like the idea of this stock (and I’m not averse
personally, as long as it delivers) the advice is to wait and see if things go well during the critical
commissioning and ramping period because unlike other juniors at this stage, the market will not be quick to
reward WRLG for milestone moments such as commissioning, first pour, first production quarter etc. I expect
it will improve a little at those stages, but the serious re-rate is only going to happen when and if they get to
commercial production status and prove, no doubts, that the new mine plans works. Get onat that point and
you’ll get plenty of the potential reward for only a fraction of the risk.
Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v) wakes up
Your occasional reminder that gringos will buy anything:
Okay, that might be a little harsh, as OCO has delivered a near-double since its lows of early February 2025
and anyone who bought at or under the 30c line in the last few months (easy to do) is sitting on at least a
50% gain after its latest run. OCO is the owner and operator of the Santo Tomas copper project in Mexico
and it’s a company we’ve followed over the years, being a regular member of The Copper Basket (but not in
thr 2025 version). Its potential as “leverage to copper” is clear and seeing it run in the last couple of weeks in
the way that it has is a reasonable speculation on a project with lots of copper, an address reasonably close
to a large working copper mine running roughly the same grades (Buenaventura, owned by Grupo Mexico)
and shown as economically viable on paper via its PEA from a year and a bit ago.
But it’s also unpermittable in the current climate in Mexico. It’s one thing to have a cloud over open pit
projects, another to own one still in the early stages of its permitting cycle, would involve a very large mine,
has local community (and NGO) anti-mining pushback
and is located next door to a river that provides fresh
water supply to local populations (the river literally runs
over the concession and orebody and in the PEA, a
percentage of the known resource is ignored due to it).
It’s also one of the more blatant pumps in recent times
and a stock I’ve opposed since around point (1) on this
five-year chart.
That means I can be stupid about OCO, of course. Yes
for sure I saved myself a lot of pain and got to say “Oh
Look At Me I’m Right Oh Aren’t I Clever” during periods
(3) and (4) on the above chart, but it also means I
missed out on a multi-bag winner during period (2)
when it rose and rose without me. That’s one of the
drawbacks of being fundies-based, there are times when stocks run and it doesn’t matter how much I might
think they are “really worth”.
Which brings us back to the present day and the recent run in the stock, as this one isn’t on my shopping list
either. The prospect of “cheap in-situ” copper may be interesting for some and its history as a social media
darling junior may attract others, but I much prefer to own shares in copper explorecos that have a hope in
hell of being permitted. There are plenty of options out there, including my own holdings in the more
25

expensive and advanced Marimaca (MARI.to) or the small and speculative Surge (SURG.v). Other reasonable
specs on the metal include ALDE.v, AE.v, XXIX.v, KDK.v even BIG if you pressed me (its drill upside potential
is still there) and that’s just a partial list of potential copper specs in the current market. But in my view, it’s
best to steer clear of known quantities that have been over-hyped over time, the combo of bagholders at
higher prices and the potential for a fast reversal are ever-present. Hot Chili (above) falls into this category
and OCO too, so Santo Tomás is not for me.
Conclusion
We wrap up IKN828 with some bullet points:
 The gold run continues, so just let it do its thing and if you need your hand held and some reasons
why you shouldn’t cash in too early, feel free to drop me a line.
 I’ve been thinking a lot about Latin Metals (LMS.v) this week and nearly made it a larger feature
today, but eventually decided to wait a few more days, find out some more about a couple of
subjects connected to the stock and its projects and not to rush into any call, not least because its
lack of volume and wide bid/ask means there’s no rush required. However, be clear that after getting
up to date on the company I’m suitably impressed. Watch this space.
 Happy to see my Rio2 trade finally back in the green, it’s been a long road to get here. Next item on
the agenda is some new life in the Minera Alamos trade, we can but hope.
 We’re locked and loaded on the Ecuador trade set-up, so no need for any deep dive next weekend.
Any campaign developments of note will be duly reported of course, but the real deal happens in two
weekend’s time so IKN830 may be the place for the next live trade call. Noboa wins and I’m long
Lumina Gold the next day, one of those shooting fish in a barrel set-ups if it comes to pass.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos
(MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-30-2025.html
(2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtHG8556T3U
(3) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/daniel-noboa-luisa-gonzalez-saco-su-verdadera-esencia-en-el-debate-se-desenmascaro-
nota/
(4) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/ecuador/daniel-noboa-entregara-bono-de-us1000-para-emprendedores-y-negocios-
populares/
(5) https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/gonz%c3%a1lez-apela-al-voto-ind%c3%adgena-con-llamado-a-%22unidad%22-desde-el-
coraz%c3%b3n-andino-de-ecuador/89077333
(6) https://www.primicias.ec/elecciones/ecuador2025/presidenciales/luisa-gonzalez-cotopaxi-pujili-discurso-moratoria-minera-92747/
(7) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/pachakutik-y-la-revolucion-ciudadana-firman-acuerdo-25-puntos-que-seran-cumplidos-si-
luisa-gonzalez-llega-a-la-presidencia-tixan-guillermo-churuchumbi-leonidas-iza-nota/
(8) https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2025/03/30/donald-trump-se-reunio-con-el-presidente-de-ecuador-daniel-noboa-en-
su-residencia-de-mar-a-lago/
(9) https://www.vistazo.com/politica/elecciones-ecuador-2025/2025-03-29-movimiento-indigena-chimborazo-califica-traicion-pacto-
pachakutik-luisa-gonzalez-DD9041432
(10) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-announces-receipt-of-second-deposit-of-us-25-million-from-fenix-gold-stream
26

(11) https://www.brecorder.com/news/40355247
(12) https://www.hotchili.net.au/hot-chili-serves-up-chilean-copper-pfs/
(13) https://www.hotchili.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2869313.pdf
(14) https://www.pampametals.com/news/2025/ampaetalsandugbyesourcesloserivatelacements20250327133003.html
(15) https://www.pampametals.com/news/2025/ampaetalsteputrillingntersects152mat040u20250328054502.html
(16) https://www.b2gold.com/news-media/news-releases/news-details/2025/B2Gold-Announces-Updated-Mineral-Reserve-Life-of-Mine-
Plan-for-the-Goose-Project-Commencing-a-Study-to-Expand-Mill-Throughput-at-the-Goose-Project-B2Gold-Confirms-Construction-and-
Mine-Development-Cash-Expenditure-Estimate-of-C1540-million/default.aspx
(17) https://www.sandstormgold.com/sandstorm-gold-royalties-renews-normal-course-issuer-bid-and-automatic-share-purchase-plan/
(18) https://mogotesmetals.com/mogotes-announces-closing-to-acquire-100-of-argentina-land-package/
(19) https://mogotesmetals.com/vicuna-district-geophysics-starts-at-new-claims-next-to-filo-del-sol/
(20) https://revistamineria.com.pe/editorial/el-avance-de-tia-maria-es-un-hito-para-la-mineria-responsable
(21) https://rpp.pe/peru/actualidad/caso-tia-maria-agricultores-del-valle-del-tambo-presentan-demanda-de-amparo-contra-proyecto-
minero-de-southern-noticia-1624983?ref=rpp
(22) https://newfoundgold.ca/news/new-found-gold-corp-announces-initial-mineral-resource-estimate/
(23) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mfPCPf_NF8&t=2185s
(24) https://westredlakegold.com/west-red-lake-gold-board-of-directors-update/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
28

Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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