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The IKN Weekly
Week 825, March 9th 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Conspiracy theorists go quiet on London gold, The US CPI and the US crazy.
Fundamental Analysis: Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) 4q24 financials and decision to sell, Buying Gold
Royalties Corp (GROY).
Stocks to Follow: Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Lumina
Gold (LUM.v), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Aftermath
Silver (AAG.v), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v), Salazar Resources (SRL.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L), Hercules Metals (BIG.v), Arizona Sonoran
(ASCU.to), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Hot Chili (HCH.ax) (HCH.v), XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick (GOLD), New Gold (NGD) (NGD.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Electrum Discovery (ELY.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v): Kodiak Copper (KDK.v),
Condor Resources (CN.v) and Barksdale Resources (BRO.v).
Regional Politics: Chile: The right wing takes control of the Presidential election Argentina: Libra and the
end of the Milei honeymoon Argentina gets the PDAC plaudits, Ecuador Presidential election update:
Headwinds for Noboa.
Market Watching: Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) finances.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Two trades planned, with details on both in today’s main Fundamental Analysis section.
1) After due deliberation and considering the 4q24 financials and 2025 guidance as published last week
I’m a seller of Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to), taking a loss on the trade despite there being plenty of
reasons to hold through a temporary low period. This call is as much about personal portfolio
management as anything else, certainly not a reflection of a good mining company looking toward the
long-term.
2) This one may surprise a few readers, others in the audience will know I’m a fan of turnaround stories
and letting the numbers talk. I’m also good about setting my own prejudices aside when circumstances
demand. I’m a buyer of Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) in the days ahead and plan to use most-not-all the
cash raised by the sale of ERO to do so.
This Week
 It’s time to admit defeat with Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) and sell the losing trade, but the main
fundies note on its 4q24 financials and 2025 guidance also makes clear (or should, if I do my job right)
that the decision to sell is as much about my own portfolio circumstances as the company’s strategy.
I’ve said it dozens of times and I’ll say it again, running a public portfolio on junior miners using one’s
own trades is best described as the “least worst” method, rather than the best.
 The feedback on my decision to open on Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) will be interesting, given how
many times I’ve slated the company and its mediocre management team in public (and in private, for
that matter). Perhaps GROY in 2025 is the acid test for royaltycos and shows just how difficult it is to
make the business model fail, because if these jokers can deliver a success and a share price profit,
anyone can.
1

 PDAC came and went with the usual flurry of vacuous news releases, plenty of feelgood and a distinct
lack of real deal flow, but Argentina came away feeling very proud of its new “rockstar” status and of
the 470 people who packed into its Argentina Day presentation. And even after stripping away the self-
congratulation so typical of Argentines, this desk agrees the country was the protagonist of PDAC 2025
and brought plenty of substance to the conference. It’s our main focus in this week’s Regional Politics
section.
 At this juncture it may be akin to picking at a scab. Today’s Market Watching section includes the latest
from Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v), which announced a Strategic Review and board changes last week,
along with a highly dilutive equity placement that sunk the stock by 30%. Or better said, another 30%.
However, it’s not just academic interest as there may be a speculative trade available in this stock if
the price is right and news runs in favour, so we run the ruler over what has been and the potential
scenarios. This low price, plus the bandwidth of trading in the stock, opens up potential.
Conspiracy theorists go quiet on London gold
The intro op-ed to IKN823 two weekends ago, “Gold supply and demand gets political”, came a moment
when the mechanics and structure of the world gold market was under close examination for a wider public
that normally takes this large and normally staid market for granted. The continued rise in the price of gold
and the threat of Trump tariffs on gold combined to see an unusual influx of physical gold into The USA as
holders moved to secure ownership and make sure they wouldn’t be subject to a financial penalty that in
essence, would negate the reason to hold the safe haven monetary metal in the first place. It also got the
financial conspiracy theorists and hardcore goldbugs screaming from the top of their collective social media
voices, claiming that “the system” was about to fail, that London was about to “run out of gold” and from
there, claiming all sorts of weird and wonderful price targets for gold, silver (or course) and associated
stocks. Along with the collapse of the broad markets and other such dystopian wet dreams.
This desk took a different view. We chewed over gold supply, demand and what we’d recently seen due to
the Trump tariffs (or better said threats of tariffs, his penchant for moving the goalposts at the last moment
is well-established and extremely unlikely to be a series of coincidences), then took a look at the reality of
gold in the vaults of the London LBMA system and came to the most obvious of conclusions. We even used
some all-caps:
“…be clear, LONDON IS NOT RUNNING OUT OF GOLD, it’s not even close and once that’s clear in
your head, you’ll also be able to eschew any thoughts of the crazy price targets purported by the
hype-mongers.”
It wasn’t a difficult call to make. Along the way, we offered up a chart showing LBMA gold stocks and even
when adding a final data point that supposed the worst of the financial lunatics predictions were true (we
picked the claim “TWO THOUSAND TONNES OF GOLD SHIPPED FROM LONDON TO NEW YORK”, all caps
required to get the feel) demonstrated that London wasn’t about to run out of gold.
Anyway, last week in its regular monthly update press release (2), LBMA put an end to this latest round of
stupidity:
“As at end February 2025, the amount of gold held in London vaults was 8,477 tonnes (a 0.68%
decrease on previous month)”
Or if you prefer, 272.5m oz gold and that looks like this compared to all previous months back to 2017:
LBMA: Gold held in London vaults, 2017 to date
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2
71naj ram yam luj pes von 81naj ram yam luj pes von 91naj ram yam luj pes von 02naj ram yam luj pes von 12naj ram yam luj pes von 22naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj
Mozt
source: LBMA data

For a little extra clarity, here below is the same dataset, focused on the period 2024 to date and with a cut-
down Y-axis and while there has indeed been
a draw down, anyone who can turn that data LBMA: Gold held in London vaults, 2024 to date
point into the Death Of Society is wasting their
time writing about capital markets and should
dedicate themselves to dystopian science
fiction novels. To underscore the data, and
allay any remnants of fear you might still have
about London running out of gold, here’s what
the LBMA had to say by way of commentary in
the presser:
While stocks in the Bank of England
declined by a similar pace to that seen in
January, gold stocks in London’s commercial vaults in fact increased - in contrast with the trend seen
last month. This highlights that gold is moving from BoE into the Loco London system but also shows
that the market dynamics that led to gold travelling to NY in recent months have somewhat eased.
Silver outflows were slightly less than half in February compared to January.
These figures provide an important insight into London’s ability to underpin the physical OTC market.
That’s what a very large financial entity sounds like when quietly answering rabid social media nincompoops
with hard facts in a genteel accent while holding a nice cup of tea, saucer in other hand, pinkie finger cocked
as per regulation. And of course, it won’t surprise you to learn that the same people shilling their stupidities
about the impending collapse of the world gold market have moved on to some other subject, their silence
on all things LBMA roared its own message.
The US CPI and the US crazy
Under normal circumstances, next week’s main US macro event would be the CPI reading on Wednesday
morning, with inflation and its ravages in the world’s biggest and most important economy* in focus. As for
what to expect, according to Bill Mc Bride at Calculated Risk (1) “…consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI,
and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% Year-over-year (YoY), and core
CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.” So now you know, however March 2025 is far, but very far away from normality and
it’s anyone’s idea as to what will be the main financial news driver over the next seven days.
On that subject, at some point last week I got the distinct impression the market had started to ignore the
non-stop battering of crazy coming from the White House. No matter whether you’re pro or anti-Trump, it’s
difficult to deny that his method of “keeping everyone on their toes” (let’s say, to be diplomatic) is causing
uncertainty and volatility in capital markets but at some point, the talk must convert into action else we see
the Boy Who Cried Wolf effect start to kick in and without being able to make a definitive call, there was
more than a hint of a market that had started to maintain Trump as a net neutral.
*So that we’re clear, purchasing parity is not a good comparative and China isn’t even close.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) 4q24 financials and decision to sell
We get the negatives out the way first. On time and as expected, our copper producer trade vehicle Ero
Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) reported its 424 financials last Thursday March 6th (3) with the conference call on the
morning of Friday March 7th (recording here (4)). We last looked at ERO in IKN822 dated February 16th in
the fundamental analysis note “Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) 4q24 production and forward guidance”, which
tells you what we were chewing over that day (as I do like a prosaic title). On that day, we noted the market
had dumped the stock by 7.4% on the NR, only to buy it back up in the two days before the end of the week,
with the closing price at C$20.50. We ended the analysis in IKN with two bullet points in the conclusion, the
same ones repeated last weekend in IKN824 as a preview:
Despite lower than expected production, the market has realized ERO is a still a profitable and interesting
entity in its own right. Tucumã is behind schedule by a quarter, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to fail and
both grade and recover numbers indicate a mine that’s going to meet expectations. Caraiba had a hard
time, but it’s seemingly one-time interruptions. Xavantina might not be mining the ultra-high grade of recent
quarters, but it’s still a highly profitable mine. So put all that together and that nice Mr. Market seems willing
3
6.772 3.572 9.572 9.472 6.472 5.672 1.872 9.872 5.872 5.282 1.082 3.972 3.472
5.272
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
42naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 52naj bef
Mozt
source: LBMA data

to forgive this latest lapse, as there’s a lot of free cash flow built into this company’s numbers at current
metals prices. It may have come in low, but low is more than enough at C$20 to make for sparkling
numbers
ERO continues to be an obvious M&A target. A heady combination of operating and profitable mines, growth
baked in an established land position in one of the better South American jurisdictions, ERO has a lot to
offer the madcap suitor looking to expand production and pipeline.
The plan in IKN822 was to wait until the financials were published before making any further decisions and
that, in hindsight, was a mistake:
In the four weeks since its production NR ERO has been sold down heavily and on its Canadian listing ERO.to,
went into its earnings day at C$17.74, 13.5% down from the weekend of IKN822. As it happens, ERO wasn’t
punished again by the market and the Friday close of C$17.70 means it got through the financials unscathed,
but by the time I’d processed the results and taken into
account the contents of its guidance and conference call I
ERO: Caraiba Copper prod & sales, per qtr (Mlbs)
was regretting my rather blithe attitude toward leaving
ERO be until it had reported (one that was echoed as late
as last week.
We did most of the production results in IKN822 so no need to repeat much, but we now have sales figures to
add to the production so here are the relevant overview
charts from each mine. At Caraiba, Cu sales came in
slightly lower than the payable production at 18.56m lbs.
The realized copper average price of U$3.82/lb was
slightly lower than expected, but not by much and
basically in-line with expectations.
Meanwhile at Xavantina, gold sales of 11,106 oz were
much higher than production and involved the selling
down of inventory. However, the hedges on production
meant average received price was only U$2,038oz,
negating any advantage from the higher sales number.
Finally, it’s probably a bit early to start running visuals on
Tucumá and its two quarters of pre-commercial
production, but you’re getting one anyway as sales in Q4
of 3,750mt were significantly lower than the pre-
announced production total of 4,317mt. Received price was
also lower, at U$3.48/lb.
Overall, the sales numbers for 4q24 left something to be
desired, even after our expectations had been lowered by
the pre.announced production NR in mid-February. Gold
sales at Xavantina were better than expected but the low
average price mean we hardly notice the difference, while
the two copper mines came in on the lower end of okay and
4
3.72 1.22 5.82 2.32 3.92 9.02 6.52 2.22 2.52 9.02 2.91 0.22 6.81
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Mlbs Cu
Cu prod (lb)
Cu sales (lb)
source: company filings, IKN ests
ERO at Xavantina: Gold production and sales, per qtr
6257 4838
5489 00101 02001 3599 5869
9777 3108
84401 70921 38501 79031 61901
75451 97481 35861 12671 51641
60111
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000 6000
4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Au oz prod
Au oz sold
source: company filings, IKN ests
Tucumá: Copper production and sales
938
2561
7134
0573
MT Cu
5000
4000
copper prod mt
3000
conc sales
2000
1000
0
3q24 4q24
source: company filings

while it is unfair on Tucumá to be demanding of its contribution so early, the combo of low sales and low
price means there was a bit of a revenues gap.
The result was a top line sales number of U$122.539m that couldn’t even claim to be a record, and a gross
profit of U$52.373m that showed very little sign that ERO has recently opened its expansion mine.
ERO.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
5
848.06
801.04
125.56
804.93
607.96
574.53
555.47
958.14
616.47
771.13
897.37
292.34
821.17
907.35
661.07
373.25
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings, IKN
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues COGS Gross profit
That gross profit became an operating profit of U$34.17m (below left) and once a $12m impairment and a fat
negative adjustment for forex between USD and the Real had been accounted for, the net was a loss of
U$54.79m. The net number isn’t a worry, but we expected more from the operating profit and to put that
into context, here below right is operating profit per share:
ERO.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
Again, U$0.331/share isn’t a bad number, but it’s not the “sparkle” I expected in IKN822 and as late as last
weekend, representing as it does a price/op earnings ratio of 9.3X. Not a bargain.
The other place that came over weaker than expected was the balance sheet items, with an increase in near-
term liabilities by $24m and long-term by $47m for a new total of U$886.954m, all while its assets total
dropped U$43m due to the impairment and general DD&A.
To its credit, the cash position improvement to U$50.402m but then again it had to from the U$20m and
change position as reported in 3q24, but more concerning was a working capital position that remained firmly
801.04
88.22
804.93
58.02
574.53
62.22
958.14
22.92
771.13
21.31
292.34
14.52 907.35
22.63
373.25
71.43 60
50 40
30
20 10
0 -10 -20
-30
-40
-50
-60
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
ERO.to: operating earnings per share
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ERO data, IKN
618.0 118.0
746.0
987.0
925.0 744.0 670.0 573.0 742.0 422.0 832.0 482.0 821.0 642.0 153.0 133.0
1.00
0.90
0.80 0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30 0.20
0.10
0.00
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
ERO.to: Total Assets
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ERO.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
1000
cash&eq Ac Rec 900
Inventory other current 800 fixed
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab

in negative territory at almost -$70m. This isn't the same situation as ARG last weekend, where the artificial
weight of the El Teniente rolling royalty makes a good cash position into a negative working cap. It's not
good to see working cap sink further, particularly when we take into account the details on guidance learned
during the ConfCall.
ERO.to: Cash and ST
Regarding that, the ConfCall was the moment I was tipped into the sell position. We already knew forward
guidance had been pared back slightly, specifically for copper with both Caraiba and Tucumá expected lower
than previous estimates. Up to last month, the guidance for 2025 was between 95,000 and 105,000 mt
copper, that's been chopped by 10kmt to 85kmt - 95kmt, with downward adjustments made to 2026 as well.
The news was out and incorporated into the share price, but the final straw came when management not
only told us that Q1 of 2025 (i.e. the current quarter) would come in softer than 4q24, but made sure the
message was clearly understood when an analyst on the Q&A questioned the guidance.
Discussion and conclusion
Even if you assume everything goes to plan for ERO in 2025, the Tucumá ramp up goes smoothly and the
recent hiccup in tailings at Caraiba is fixed, the news that production would be soft in Q1 is enough to
reassess holding this stock. This is, of course, a personal decision and it makes a lot of sense for an insto or
fund with a longer-term view to use share price weakness in the near-term to accumulate what will
undoubtedly be a highly profitable company once it’s running at full steam again. However I’m not an insto,
I’m a retail grunt with a limited amount of money to invest who lives in the real world and the prospect of
battening down the hatches on yet another stock, to be willing to go through near-term drudgery and pain in
order “to be right” in the long-term, isn’t going to happen this time. I have a portfolio to run and the cash
that looks set to under-perform in ERO for the next quarter or two can be used somewhere else (i.e. see
below). With the market likely to punish ERO for a poor Q1 when it’s announced, no matter whether or not it
warned the world the way it did, I’m going to use one of the advantages retail has against the bigger money,
that of flexibility. I like ERO as a company and prospect, so the chances of me buying back in the future are
very high, but for the time being I’m going to retire my cash and put it to use somewhere else. I am a seller
of ERO this coming week, ready and willing to take a loss and add some red ink to my track record in order
to free up the cash for better purposes.
6
584.12 833.44 716.15 143.45 805.26
475.48
556.731 450.911 921.031 384.564 188.924
897.953
204.713
746.632
393.081
6.78
837.111
296.15 377.44 922.02 204.05
500
450
400
350
300 250
200
150
100
50
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
$m ERO.to: Working capital
500
450
400
350
300
250 200
150
100 50
0
-50
-100
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
$m
source company filings
ERO: Xavantina gold production and guidance
03863 89773 96624
22295 01275 00006 00006 00006
ERO: Total copper production and guidance Oz Au
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000 20000
10000
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025* 2026* 2027*
source: company filings *ERO guidance
41824 11454 17364 75834 00604
00058
00059 00059
MT Cu
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000
20000
10000
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025* 2026* 2027*
source: company filings *ERO guidance

Buying Gold Royalties Corp (GROY)
Now for the positive side to this weekend’s main fundies
section. This note has been in incubation for a few weeks
under the semi-humorous working title “GROY, scraping
the bottom of the royalties barrel”, as its performance in
the four-or-so years of existence has been nothing short
of awful. What’s more, its epic fail has been accompanied
by a non-stop marketing and promotion onslaught that
might make the outside observer think it’s been some sort
of success to date.
Nothing could be further from the truth. The basic price
chart (right) is bad enough, with the U$5-or-thereabouts
prices of 2021 a distant memory, and even the U$2 to U$3 range from mid-2022 to mid-2023 looking
expensive compared to the U$1.39 this weekend. However, things get worse when we compare the
performance of GROY to its peers in the mining royalty sub-sector:
This group of Osisko (OR.to), Wheaton (WPM), Franco-Nevada (FNV) and Sandstorm isn’t fully inclusive, but
they’re certainly representative of the royalty/streamer space and some of the most well-known companies
and in comparison, the performance of GROY in this period has been nothing short of awful, even against the
well-documented laggard SAND or the issues faced by the mature and established FNV and its large stream
from Cobre Panama since late 2023. It is arguably the worst performing company in its sector and your
author has been particularly critical of this company, its founders, its management team and the way it plays
fast and loose with its finances. However, this time the coverage of GROY won’t turn into another slagfest,
the job is to explain why it’s now an interesting company at a very interesting price and for that, we begin by
checking the corporate structure:
Shares out: 169.6m
Options: 7.7m
Warrants & RSUs: 22.5m
Fully diluted: 199.8m
Current share price: U$1.39
Market Cap: U$235.7m
Approx cash per S/O: 1.5c
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated
A look at the share count evolution provides a useful hack on the development of the company, with two
significant moments easy to spot. The first was in 2q21 and 3q21 when GROY bought out Abitibi Royalties
and Golden Valley in a three-way merger that
brought GROY’s best royalty asset, its 3% NSR over GROY: Shares out (m)
one of the main producing areas of the Canadian
Malartic mine (plus a 1.5% NSR over one of the
most advanced project areas at the same mine) and
to this day, I do not understand why Glen Mullan
7
645.14 126.14 935.27
39.331 52.431 64.431 19.341 19.341 83.441 79.441 79.441 76.541 98.541 70.961 13.961 6.961 071
200
180
160
140
120
100 80
60
40
20
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
source: company financials, IKN ests

and Ian Bell agreed to the merger with GROY shares so eye-wateringly overpriced at the time.
There have been other additions to the share count (and the deal it struck with Queens Road Capital
(QRC.to) in 4q33 to buy the Aura Borborema royalty using convertible debt means they continue to pay
interest in shares, adding to the count drip by drip), but the other moment when the count changed
significantly was 2q24 when GROY up to secure the stream on 100% of the copper produced at the Vares
mine (Adriatic Metals).
GROY: Assets
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
The effects of deals also show in the balance sheet charts. Assets hiked North big time when the Canadian
Malartic royalty came on board in 2021 (it’s valued at over U$320m), as did its embedded tax liability (which
isn’t a headwind for GROY as a going concern, though it does come into play for book value calculations (see
below). Bank debt has steadily grown (and GROY recently expanded its facility to U$75m with its lenders),
while the convertibles owned by QRC.to showed up in 4q23 with the Aura Borborema deal. Overall, GROY’s
liability position is best described as “manageable”, being neither small nor onerous. I like the news that the
bank debt facility (currently drawn to U$25m) can now extend to U$75m, as it implies and new deals won’t
be using shares. Indeed, for when we consider the precipitous share price drop the company has endured in
the last four years, as well as the lack of response to the market bull run in 2024, at least over-dilution and
empire building from equity isn’t to blame.
A closer look at the mineral book (right) shows the
preponderance of value ascribed to Canadian
domiciled assets, with Canadian Malartic #1. Other
Canadian assets of real value include Coté Gold and
Borden, with other projects in the exploration and
development stage given fixed asset value as well.
The USA also features strongly, with perhaps the
most interesting royalty being on the REN project,
on the Carlin trend and part of the Goldstrike
operation of Nevada Gold Mines (GOLD and NEM).
That project has moved forward significantly in the
past couple of years and is now slated to come into production in 2027, adding between 100k oz and 140k oz
gold to the Goldstrike production mix. GROY holds a 1.5% NSR and a 3.5% NPI (net profits interest) on REN
and even the most conservative of ciggiepack math shows that worth an easy U$5m per annum. Finally, the
new royalty additions of Borborema (Brazil) and Vares (Bosnia & Herz) complete the latest fixed asset totals.
This visual (below) from the latest corporate presentation helps cut down the word count of my note today
and while GROY does hold plenty of junk in its royalty book, all these companies do the same. What matters
is the “good stuff”, even if the company overpaid for the rights in earlier years (another of my long-term
gripes about this company) as those over-steps were embedded into the share price long ago.
8
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m total fixed GROY: Liabilities
other current 220
cash+ST 200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
source: company filings
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
current liab bank debt
deferred tax liab other LT liab
source: company filings
U$m GROY: Non-current asset breakdown
900 Can Malartic Other Canada
800 USA Brazil
Mexico Bosnia & Herz
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24
source: company filings

The “good stuff is over there on the right and, for the first time ever, GROY now has a range of reasonable
royalties that are active and paying money, as well as a development book with enough to like. Things like La
Mina and Jerritt Canyon are cruddy, but REN and Odyssey are two that stand out as likely to add to the
revenues mix in later years and even before then, get more credit as valuable assets by the market.
Which brings us to our next point, one that’s central to the trade thesis here (so pay attention). Royaltycos,
once established and with more income than outgoings, tend to command strong ratios both in
price/earnings and in price/book. To date GROY hasn’t had a profitable quarter (except for when it got tax
rebates) and we also know its asset book isn’t 100% star quality, but all the same its current valuation
compared to book is very low at an estimated 0.42X. This chart shows where that stands compared to some
of its peers and while we don’t expect GROY to be
able to command the multiples of a FNV, WPM,
Price/Book Ratios of royalty companies as at March 2025
RGLD or OR.to, the 1.3X and 1.0X seen at 5.0
4.5
Sandstorm and Metalla are certainly in reach. All it
4.0
would really take to see GROY shares valued to 3.5
those levels is evidence that it isn’t a perma-loser 3.0
2.5
and can turn a profit with its current book of assets. 4.61 4.40
2.0
At that point, a re-rate is all-but certain and just a 1.5 3.25 2.89
move back to 1.0X parity would imply a share price 1.0 0.42
0.5 1.31 1.00
of U$3.30, an upside of 137% from this weekend.
0.0
That number is exactly why I’m interested in GROY,
FNV WPM RGLD OR.to SAND MTA GROY
and have been for several weeks. No matter the
source: Yahoo Finance
mediocre C-suite and fast-talking founder, no matter
the price it has paid for royalty streams in previous years, what matters is the expected improvement in
revenues going forward and if this company can show a change to its financial results, its share price is
bound to move back up.
To round off the balance sheet thoughts, current sections of the ledger get swamped under the long-term
parts, so here are current assets and working capital to the last reported quarter, 3q24 (GROY reports its
4q24 on March 19th, in ten days’ time (5)).
U$m GROY: Current assets GROY: Working cap
14
12 other current
10 cash+ST
8
6
4
2
0
4q229 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24
source: company filings
83.6
306.43
892.91 623.6
647.9
955.7 917.6
970.4 710.3 596.1 799.1 599.2 603.2
U$m
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
3q214q211q222q223q224q221q232q233q234q231q242q243q24
source: company filings

The numbers are small here, but GROY doesn’t need mountains of cash washing around and overall its kept
reasonably neat. The only grievance I’ve had over the years is the high G&A compared to income in its early
quarters, an indication that the C-suite was dining out too much and making too many first class flights on
the shareholders’ coin. But even that has been reeled in recent quarters and for all the disdain I may feel for
the Adnanis and Garofalos of this world, there’s not much to complain about these days.
The bottom line to balance sheet items: Yes, a lot of its royalty holdings are worth next to nothing, but there
are enough interesting parts these days to
warrant attention. Its jewel in the crown is
Canadian Malartic but it’s no longer dependent
on just that stream, as we’re about to see.
The new revenues mix: We begin the
interesting part of this analysis with a look at
the revenues quarterly revenues breakdown at
GROY (chart right). Canadian Malartic has been
a mainstay at the company since late 2021, but
these days there are new sources of income
coming online:
 The Borborema mine is set to come online this year, but until it does GROY gets paid 250 oz gold
equivalent from Aura Minerals.
 Coté Gold revenues have begun to flow and according to operator IA°MGOLD, they should double output
in 2025 and beyond
 Every so often “other” spikes higher due to scheduled and/or one-off option payments on land owned.
For example, Provenance Gold’s Eldorado project in Oregon is a GROY asset and PAU is set to pay the
next $400k installment on its optioning-in deal this current quarter, 1q25.
But that’s not all, because as from 4q24 we can expect revenues to start flowing from the Vares mine and the
royalty GROY holds on 100% of its copper production. Copper is a minor payable at what is ostensibly a zinc-
focused polymetallic mine, but copper will be produced and GROY gets paid at 70% net spot price.
That’s the past, what matters is the future and what we can expect from GROY now that its producing royalty
base has expanded. It’s not easy making accurate predictions on quarter-by-quarter basis on a royaltyco with
producing streams that don’t cover the entirety of mines, as it’s not in control of exactly where rock is mined
at any given moment and if a zone covered by the royalty is left untouched for a while, that affects its share
of the product. In the case of GROY and for three examples, its royalties on Canadian Malartic, Coté Gold,
Cozamin cover partial and not entire mining zones. What we can is is average out what we expect from each
asset and make reasonable guesstimates and when we do, this is what comes out:
GROY: Sales
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
10
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1 tse52q2 tse52q3 tse52q4
U 4 $ . m 5 J o e th rr e it r t Canyon GROY: Revenues breakdown
4 Borborema
Coté Gold 3.5
Borden
3 Cozamin
2.5 Cad Malartic
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24
source: company filings
U$m
source: company filings
In ten days’ time when GROY reports its Q4, we know it will have top line revenues of U$3.4m and total
revenues of U$3.8m (including land revenues and interest accrued) because that was pre-announced on
January 29th. However, as Vares comes online, Cote Gold ramps up and then Borborema moves into
production, revenues are set to improve and improve again in 2025. We estimate revenues in the last two
quarters of 2025 to average U$7m, basically double that of 4q24.

That’s going to do this to operating profits:
GROY: Operating profit, per qtr
(NB: 4q23 without U$22.379m impairment)
11
475.7- 526.8- 457.2- 105.2-
86.3-
209.2- 40.2- 177.1- 878.1-
445.0- 216.0- 329.0-
2.0 7.0
5.1
5.3
6.4 6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 *32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1 tse52q2 tse52q3 tse52q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN calcs
I don’t mind admitting I may be off for the 4q24 result, as trying to nail down an operating profit of just 200k
with so many variables is an exercise in eddycated guessing, not science. However, and aside the 30% spot
GROY will pay for the copper from Vares, its costs are going
to rise by much and that means nearly all the extra revenues GROY: Operating profit/share
flows through the books and becomes operating profit (net
profit too, perhaps, but what matters here is getting pre-tax
0.9
into the green and with the GROY operating profit number, 0.1 0.4
corporate G&A is accounted for. The chart right shows the
data on a per-share basis. If GROY can leave 2025 running -0.4 -0.4 -0.6
forward earnings of 11c/share (a PE of around 12X at -1.4 -1.2 -1.3
today’s prices), we’re going to see its entire book revalued
and not just the parts that are offering revenues. This is the
moment its price/book can reach a more reasonable 1X level
(that even something as bad as Metalla (MTA) gets to boast)
and that’s all we need for a very impressive percentage gain from current levels.
Discussion and conclusion
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) is living proof that even the worst management teams can make a success of the
royalty and streamer business model, all they need to do is keep their hands off the controls, don’t get
carried away by the G&A opportunities and allow revenues to catch up with outlay. GROY now finds itself at
an inflection point that’s been long in the making and this year, finally, after over-paying for assets
(Borborema), placing their trust in failures (Jerritt Canyon) and failing to deliver on revenues that would
match their expenses, we’re going to get exactly that from the company in 2025. However and judging by
the valuation given by the market to its book at present, the world has yet to catch on to the fact that 2025
will be the turnaround year for GROY and that it’s about to revalue thanks to true and sustainable operating
profits. Cote Gold is now coming online, as is Vares and Borborema won’t be far behind. Added to mainstays
revenues streams such as Canadian Malartic and Cozamin, then with Odysey and REN waiting in the wings,
the U$10.1m in revenues for 2024 should exit 2025 at a forward U$28m and with more to come in 2026.
While we absolutely agree there are a bunch of over-inflated dog assets in it book, most of which haven’t
even got a mention in today’s analysis, there’s enough to warrant a move back to a 1X price/book ratio and
at the current share price, that leaves a lot of upside.
The time to get on GROY is now, before it reports its 4q24 and YTD financials and more eyes see the
expected hike in revenues in 2025 guidance and that’s why I’m a buyer of Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) this
coming week, with plans to use around half the cash generated by the sale of Ero Copper to a foothold
position in the stock.
2.2-
1.2
7.2
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
32q1 32q2 32q3 *32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1 tse52q2 tse52q3 tse52q4
U$ cents
source: company financials, IKN ests/calcs

Stocks to Follow
A week in which gold rose by 1.94% (GLD proxy) and GDX went up by 4.8% should mean an upbeat result
from a portfolio of stocks such as ours and that’s what we got. While eight winners (MAI.v, EGO, ARG.to,
MARI.to, ABRA.to, AAG.v, ERO.to, IPT.v, PGDC.v) and four unchanged stocks (SURG.v, PGZ.v, MIRL.cse,
MENE.v) versus six losers (RIO.v, SRL.v, RPX.v, OCI.v, LUM.v, PAU.cse), four were down exactly half a cent
and the other two are on the Watch List so I’m happy to see them drop. Meanwhile and on the credit side of
the ledger, the biggest movers on the week were the wins in Aftermath Silver (AAG.v up 14.6%) and
Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up 12.5%) and along with decent moves in larger holdings such as Minera Alamos,
Eldorado and AbraSilver, the pockets feel a little heavier this weekend. Not a bad thing.
We’re up to 19 open positions at the moment, one under the self-imposed maximum. Ten stocks are in the
red, nine stocks are in the green.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.325 54.8% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.735 -8.1% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$14.47 -9.2% Added Feb'25, cheaply valued
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.84 19.5% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.37 76.1% Quality Cu dev, FS due
AbraSilver ABRA.to STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$3.32 21.6% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Aftermath Silver AAG.v STR BUY $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.55 29.4% New silver trade going well
Ero Copper ERO SELLING C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.70 -8.6% Giving up, lackluster fins
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.085 6.2% Ecuador elex/buyout trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.115 4.5% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v SPEC BUY $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.10 -4.8% bulk copper in good address
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.145 -23.7% Cu jr, some recovery recently
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.05 -16.7% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.195 -35.0% Silver spec, done nothing
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Lumina Gold LUM.v WATCH C$0.63 23-Feb-25 C$0.58 -7.9% Ecuador gold developer
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.045 125.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.16 88.2% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.14 -68.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies.
Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO): SELLING. A line to confirm
the decision as per today’s main fundies analysis on the
stock, adding a final 10-day comparative chart against the
main copper ETF (COPX) to underscore the recent under-
performance of the stock, though to its credit the rebound
on Friday afternoon, people that had almost certainly
12

consumed the same Conference Call as this desk did, shows there are still believers out there.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): It’s not a performance that
makes trade paper headlines it’s still lagging compared
to peers in 2025, but we got a second decent week
from the stock and the out-performance versus GDX
of a little over 4% as seen in the tracking chart (right)
is good news, above all because the market is happily
accumulating EGO again. That’s about all for EGO
today, it traded on no new news and the PDAC rush is
more about other companies, less about madcap
producers, so it wasn’t a name on everyone’s lips last
week either. However, before signing off I will note
that there are similarities between the recent
newsflow of EGO and its okay-ish Q4 and 2025
guidance and that of Ero Copper, but despite that I’ve
come to difference decisions on my personal holdings.
Of the two, EGO is the most obviously undervalued at the current price deck and doesn’t have the shadow of
a soft Q1 hanging over its head. And it’s a gold stock, of course. Valuation + better near-term guidance + the
metal of 2025 = we hold EGO.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): A decent response from ARG on the week, up 4c without setting the world
on fire with volume. The company revealed (6) it had re-started share buybacks in February and, while the
62,309 shares bought back at an average of C$1.71 is a minor amount compared the permitted limit of
10.9m, it’s good to see the facility being used again. And while on the subject of capital returns, please
remember that ARG goes ex-divi in 11 days’ time on March 20th for its next regular 3c dividend payment.
Lumina Gold (LUM.v): A week that justifies LUM’s inclusion on the Watch List, rather than having bought
stock in the last couple of weeks. When we began formal coverage of this stock, in IKN821 dated February
9th in the “An overview of Lumina Gold (LUM.v)” main fundies note, it was a 55c and had just moved over the
50c line for the first time in a while. Within two days of
that note it had spiked to as high as 70c and then spent
the next week or so trading above the 65c line, so its
retrace last week marks something of a return to sanity
after a burst of interest.
If we zoom out and consider the five year timescale in
this visual (right), the weirdness in and out of the Covid
era is there on the left of the chart but since then, LUM
has seen a fairly reliable floor price at 50c or so (with
dips under when the macro market turns against
mining) and a channel that’s traded to 60c. In other
words, this weekend’s 58c share price is back in the
realms of the normal for LUM and there doesn’t seem to
be any good reason to pay over 50c for the time being, so that’s where the “Watch List” designation may
turn to an active purchase call.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): And on the subject of re-traces, last week’s dump to 16c may have been
brutal for holders but it’s the window of opportunity this
desk has been looking for. It’s more difficult to expect PAU
to return to the 8.5c level at which it first came up on our
radar last year (and yes, still slightly kicking myself for not
being braver at the time) so this 16c, if it consolidates, is
the type of realistic level to make a first dip purchase.
As for reasons behind the continued drop, we didn’t get
any more news last week so it seems the market is still
reacting to the assay news dated February 28th (7) that
13

was covered in last week’s notes section (which ended with “I see no rush to own today, even after last
week’s selling”, the right call). To that, we add the potential pile-on effect in-play from the 18m or so shares
sold in the October placement closure (8) have been out of escrow for nearly a month. PAU printed a lot of
paper in that issuance priced at 8c, with a share plus a full warrant priced at 12c in the units, so even this
weekend’s 16c means a decent profit for those looking to clip the warrants. It would have been reasonable
for those who speculated on PAU in the placement to wait and see how its 2025 panned out but, with the
price under pressure, it’s also reasonable to assume they’d also want to lock in profits before making another
decision. As such, even though PAU is now back to a price that’s theoretically playable for Mark the retail
grunt, it’s still a case of watching and waiting on the sidelines until there’s a floor price in. It could be right
now, or it could be 12c. Watching, because that’s why the Watch List exists.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to): Another good week for our main silver trade and while we’ve seen
this C$3.30-or-so level intraday on a few occasions recently, this is the first time it’s managed to stick into the
Friday close. The RIGI narrative was a strong current in PDAC this year and ABRA people would have made
absolutely sure that everyone who crossed their path in Toronto got to hear about its size, advantages and
the impressive economic advantages it brings to Diablillos, as well as a clear timeline that any major buyer
would also be keen on maintaining. We remind readers that our house C$5.74 target uses reasonable inputs
and conservative price assumptions, so if you want to plug U$50/oz silver in there and see what happens
then be my guest.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): Don’t expect Rio2 to make much noise in March, but we should get a construction update
in April. In trading, RIO.v dipped under the 70c line a couple of times during the week and there was a large
seller of close to a million shares on Monday afternoon, but on each occasion buyers were there to take the
price and the 73.5c close on Friday is a fair representation of the week.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): Our second string silver trade
also did well last week, despite dropping as low at 45c on
PDAC Monday and Tuesday before buyers showed up on
Wednesday morning and pushed the price back above 50c
(where it darned well belongs) and from there, the pattern
was one of healthy accumulation.
Without knowing I’m going to guess that AAG managed to
push back against the “Be Careful Of The Manganese”
current of chatter during PDAC. Perhaps Rushton collared
Rick Rule and got him up to speed.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): We even had a winning week
from our third string silver trade, the highly speculative and to-date largely under-performing IPT.v, which
traded as low as 17c early week before bargain hunters moved in. The end of this month should bring its
4q24 and YE results, at which point we’ll have data for new consideration. If this were a bigger position it
would be high time to cauterize this loser (in fact it would have been sold by now), but the trade is small, we
went in clear-eyed that it would be highly speculative, as such it’s a hold for the moment.
Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v): The liquid-ish assets table this weekend…
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.44 5.18 2.1
ARIC.v 7.39 0.46 3.40 1.4
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.26 1.08 0.4
XXIX.v 39.097 0.095 3.71 1.5
MERG.v 5.125 0.03 0.15 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.025 0.62 0.2
subtotal 14.15 5.7
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 15.35 6.2
At 247.714 S/O
14

...gives us a value of 6.2c/share for OCI, which means the arb is up to 24% and without being scientific
about it, that’s about as wide as it gets without the stock reacting to 5c looks a decent price if you can get
some.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): Half a penny down on the week in low volume trading, SRL has hit the same
Doldrums as many other Ecuador-exposed stocks. The election is going to be tight, uncertainty now reigns
and the investment community has better things to do than worry about a run-off vote five weeks into the
future, the best thing is to ignore it until the case comes up. We chose SRL above the other potential Ecuador
trades (e.g. LUM, SOLG, ATY) as its advanced stage at Curipamba and carried status gives it plenty of asset
backbone at these levels, downside to the equity is minor risk. If the election goes against Noboa SRL and
others may sell off, but I’d expect this one to be hit more moderately and to rebound more quickly. It’s one
thing to block a mining company from its permits, far more difficult to out a project into reverse once it’s
under construction.
The Copper Basket
After ten weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 2.28% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 601.86 2.19 53.1%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 360.13 0.12 -7.7%
3 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 329.63 1.94 2.1%
4 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 296.06 1.84 11.5%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 148.409 280.49 1.89 28.6%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 254.30 2.04 -0.5%
7 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 177.37 0.70 27.3%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 170.43 0.83 12.2%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 89.34 0.59 -11.9%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 73.68 0.44 -36.2%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 58.12 0.485 -23.0%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 24.51 0.095 -13.6%
13 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 23.16 0.66 10.0%
14 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 83.164 14.14 0.17 6.3%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 13.69 0.24 -23.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 2.28%
The Copper Basket average managed to add a point and stay with its head above water, thanks to the nine
winners (SOLG.to, ALDE.v, ASCU.to, FDY.to, BIG.v,
ECU.v, KBX.cse, LBC.v, PM.cse) that beat out the six The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
8.0%
losers (ATX.v, TMQ.to, REG.v, AE.v, HCH.v, XXIX.v) on
7.0%
the basic headcount, as well as there not being any
6.0%
massive moves among the 15. We had just one double 5.0%
figure percentage winner in Hercules (BIG.v up 12.9%), 4.0%
3.0%
one double figure percentage loser in Trilogy (TMQ.to
2.0%
down 10.7%) and most of the stocks only moving a few 1.0%
points in either direction, which for a PDAC week means 0.0%
the copper exploreco space was unusually stable. -1.0%
Meanwhile, copper-the-metal made plenty of headlines
last week as the world tried to decide whether US
President Trump’s tariffs were real, what they covered and whether the copper market was going to change
as a result. For years, our standard price tracker for the metal has been the near-dated Comex futures
contract and in all that time it’s done a good job in showing both price and sentiment for the copper market
around the world but suddenly, the Comex contract has become the exception rather than the rule. We begin
15
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9
source: IKN calcs

with the YTD chart of the Comex contract (currently HGK25, with May 2025 expiry) and the red ink notes the
moment when President Trump took aim at copper
in his SOTU address, as well as confirming last week
it would be subject to import tariffs. In his speech to
Congress, the language used by President Trump on
this issue changed again as he stated that he’d
already imposed tariffs on base metals imports,
including copper, a statement that flew in the face
of the messaging of only 24 hours previously when
his admin told the world that tariffs on copper were
being considered by the US Department of
Commerce and may come into force later in 2025.
As well as the practical effects of supplying the US
market from its own domestic supply (not much
cathode is produced and there are only two
operating smelters on the mainland), the uncertainty caused the Comex contract to spike hard while other
markets were largely unaffected. Here’s how Bloomberg put it on the day (9), along with a chart showing
how the Comex contract has bifurcated from that of the LME (and SHFE), where world price discovery
normally takes place.
The surge on the Comex also triggered a smaller
rally on the London Metal Exchange, with three-
month prices rising as much as 2.5%. New York
futures have been trading at a hefty premium to the
LME for months as investors price in the growing
likelihood of tariffs, and Wednesday’s gain left
Comex copper almost 12% higher than the LME,
nearing a peak of about 13% seen last month.
So in the near-term we now have two copper prices
but, as the excerpt chosen from the Bloomie report
notes, there is going to be some knock-on effect of
the COMEX run seen in other markets. If we
extrapolate, what we’re now seeing is The USA trying
to impose a de facto tax on the main end user of
copper in the world, using its 6% market share to make the country responsible for 55% of world demand
pay more.
That’s an interesting thought. What’s more, it may just work as over the medium-term, a producer of copper
will indeed have the option to trade its wares on the Comex rather than its normal sales channel and benefit
from higher prices. Therefore, those complaining that Trump’s policies will hurt The USA may want to
consider that in the case of copper, they’re going to hurt
China a lot more and that’s the whole point of this policy
shift (if I’m not mistaken). Copper may be an exception in
the world market mix, what with China’s dependency on
imports and its position as consumer #1 by a distance, but
that doesn’t make it untrue and it may become a clear
winning policy, one that works in favour of the stocks we
cover in this section on a weekly basis. Indeed, let’s wrap
up by noting that China last week guided its GDP at +5%
for 2025 and the weakness in the US Dollar also offers
plenty of fundamental reasons to expect copper to
consolidate at these new levels.
We move to the regular look at copper inventories, data supplied by Cochilco:
 A top in sight. We saw a net drop in world copper stocks, with all three of the official systems
registering draw downs for the first time this year. The weekend’s total is 608,578 metric tonnes
(mt) down 6,639mt and bringing plenty of confirmation of our suspicions last weekend.
16

 The first drop in SHFE copper stocks since the Lunar New Year wasn’t big, but 961mt down is still
significant because it may mark the high water point of the year (or may not). This weekend’s total
is 267,376mt and once again, the dedicated charts below have the visual clues.
 The biggest drop of the week came at the LME, with copper stocks down 4,750mt and most of that
leaving its Asia warehouses.
 The Comex completed our trifecta, with a net draw down of 928mt to bring this weekend’s total to
83,877mt. As noted above in the curated comments, we need to keep an eye on what happens
with this number going forward as the Trump tariff wrinkle works through the markets.
The dedicated SHFE charts show what is now quite possibly, but not definitely, the top in 2025 stock levels
and if so, we’ve topped out well under the 320kmt of last year. Ostensibly bullish for copper prices, though
it’s not going to be easy to note in a bifurcated market with greater influences than seasonally normal copper
stock levels to drive the narrative.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von ht62
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2025
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): Something had to be done, I suppose. With SOLG on its main London UK
listing back with a six pence handle, the Scott Caldwell era came to a close on Tuesday, March 4th (10):
SolGold PLC Announces New CEO and Chair, and Re-Setting Company Strategy
SolGold plc (LSE:SOLG)(TSX:SOLG) is pleased to announce the appointment of Dan Vujcic as Chief
Executive Officer and Paul Smith as Non-Executive Chairman of the Company. Scott Caldwell will
transition to a Non-Executive Director. The Board is very appreciative of Mr Caldwell for his service
as CEO and looks forward to his continued contribution on the Board.
Mr Vujcic is an Australia-based investment banker and Mr. Smith has the type of track record you’d require
for an executive being parachuted as non-executive chair but it’s clear that neither of these will be hands-on
in Ecuador and indeed, SOLG announced it had begun the search for a COO to head up operations in-
country. So far so good, but we see three consequences of this re-set, two of which are stated in the NR:
 Formation of Cascabel Technical Committee: With the segment revolving around the word “optimization”,
this new chapter of SOLG is looking to 1) cut costs on the mine plan as it moves to DFS publication and 2)

find ways of bringing forward smaller-scale mining, presumably with a view to creating cash flow. The
former makes sense to read, even if it doesn’t amount to much (and it wouldn’t be the first time Alpala
sees its capex bill re-worked lower), the latter suggests SOLG is now looking to bootstrap the mine, thereby
finding a more practical and concrete way of lowering the capex hurdle.
 Formation of ExploreCo: It beats me as to why this hasn’t happened already, but better late than never I
suppose. The new brooms plan to reorganize SOLG so that its exploration projects and large concession
holdings are separated from the main Cascabel project, almost certainly via corporate re-organization and
use of wholly-owned Ecuador domiciled subsidiaries. Not only is this normal for a mining company, but
once done it would facilitate any deal on Cascabel and allow a buyer to move quickly and buy the parts of
the company it wants without involving with the rest.
 Placement raising: However, one key issue left unsaid by last week’s NR is SOLG’s need for cash,
something we noted only last weekend in IKN824 It could happen in other ways of course (e.g. another
royalty sale) but if we assume SOLG runs a share placement to raise capital, this “new broom” gives it the
excuse required. Plus of course, getting an investment banker in as CEO (and one ready to “explore the
potential” of listing SOLG on his home soil ASX) means his appointment comes with some sort of financial
backing. That’s a nice way of saying that he wouldn’t have got the job without bringing insto money to the
table.
The upshot of the three consequences: No need to buy into SOLG before it announces its funding. It should
happen sooner, rather than later and while up to now my guess was the company would wait until after the
election, it may even happen before the run-off vote. SOLG remains on my radar as a potential trade but as a
retail grunt, there’s zero reason to get involved until the political and the financial pieces fall into place.
Hercules Metals (BIG.v) and Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) and Faraday Copper (FDY.to): Last week’s
notes included a small heads-up on the potential for two of these three stocks (ASCU and FDY) in the new
Trumpian world of copper in America. This weekend we add the other copper exploreco from our list located
in the Lower 48 (BIG.v) and run a ten-day chart:
No matter what you think of the quality of these stocks and their projects (you should know by now I prefer
FDY.to, but that’s just me), there’s little doubt that the new interest voiced by the Trump government toward
home-produced copper has benefited this sub-group of stocks and the mention copper got in last week’s
State of the Union address only underscores that. The speculative buzz around BIG.v makes it the most
volatile and while ASCU faded into the Friday close, that one has just come off a big run from so it’s not that
surprising to see profit-taking.
Hot Chili (HCH.ax) (HCH.v): The “Major Cu-Au
Porphyry Discovery at La Verde” NR from three weeks
ago is the reason HCH popped over 70c in February but
this desk wasn’t impressed, as is often the case with this
company it’s more hot air than substance. “I continue to
find this stock easy to ignore at this valuation” is quote
from IKN822 and sure enough, the new price couldn’t
hold despite the run in international copper prices. It
18

took just three weeks for the novelty to wear off, the fate of HCH in 2025 depending fully and squarely on its
Feasibility Study and on that, we await to see how it sells the project’s water supply. It’s one thing sketching
a rosy future and ballpark numbers in a PEA, but things get serious as a PFS or FS stage when you’ve spun
out your water project into a separate company and have to make bankable quotes on costs to attract
investment capital.
Marimaca is so much better than this company, it’s not even close.
XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v): In IKN821 we ran a Glass Half Full/Glass Half Full segment on XXIX and this is
what the optimistic side said:
Glass Half Full: Friday’s 11c close is at the bottom of its recent trading range and though XXIX hasn’t done much
lately, it doesn’t tend to collapse either and even these boring days nearly always see daily traded volume in six
figures. There’s a case to be made for picking some up at this 11c price and flipping them back when 13c shows
again, as history tells us it will.
It is, therefore, somewhat ironic (or stupid of me, if you prefer) that just four weeks after floating the idea of
buying some 11c shares for a fliptrade XXIX breaks down and closes at a new multi-year low price of 9.5c.
Two charts show the drop, with the long-term visual below left and the six-month chart showing the detail,
as well what seems like a pick-up in volume as the drop took hold. Not great.
The Producer Basket
After 10 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 13.96% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1127 49.44 43.87 17.9%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 49.19 98.79 26.3%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 32.51 18.60 20.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 27.53 143.28 21.8%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.52 2.68 9.8%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 2.97 14.47 -2.7%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.29 2.90 16.9%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 1.95 3.93 -1.3%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 1.87 6.30 12.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 148.95 1.58 10.58 17.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 13.96%
All ten of our basket representatives moved up last week, from the conservative 0.3% seen in Franco-Nevada
(FNV) to the decent improvements in New Gold (NGD up 6.6%), Wesdome (WDOFF up 5.2%) and Eldorado
19

(EGO up 5.1%). However, those were the only three in our list that beat the +4.8% registered by GDX,
which means it was another week in which we fell further behind the benchmark ETF.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
30% comparative to GDX control
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
We’re now 8.84% behind the GDX in only ten weeks, the type of gap that’s all-but impossible to close so
after many years of success in this semi-serious game, it looks as though 2025 is going to be good for the
ego.
Barrick (GOLD): In IKN823 dated February 23rd, we noted the Reuters report that the company had signed
a deal with the government of Mali to end its dispute over the Loulo-Gounkoto mine. Reuters published on
February 19th and we noted in passing in IKN823 that “ We still haven’t received official word from Barrick
about the deal” and since then we haven’t heard from anyone about the deal. Up to this weekend, as
apparently Reuters has more unofficial news on the deal (11). Here’s how the report entitled “Barrick says
'committed to reaching a mutually beneficial resolution' in Mali” begins:
(Reuters) - Barrick Gold remains "fully engaged and committed to reaching a mutually beneficial resolution" with
Mali to end a dispute over its assets there, its chief operating officer for Africa and the Middle East said in a memo
seen by Reuters on Saturday.
The Canadian miner and Malian government have been locked in a dispute since 2023 over the implementation of
the West African country's new mining code, which gives the state a greater share in Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto
gold mining complex.
Barrick said on January 13 that it was obliged to temporarily suspend mining operations in Mali after the
government seized around three metric tons of gold stock from its complex. The government had been blocking
the company's gold exports since early November.
Reuters reported on February 19 that Barrick had signed an agreement to end the dispute, which then went to the
state for formal approval.
While there has not been any major hiccup since then, the deal is taking some time to be finalised, one person
close to the process told Reuters.
These charts show the importance of Loulo-Gounkoto to the company, with the left-hand chart showing
quarterly sales from the mine and the right-hand chart showing sales as a percentage of the corporate total.
The dispute clearly hit Barrick’s Q4 and is going to have an even worse effect for the 1q25, so if GOLD wants
the drag to stop it has to reach official agreement and re-start the mine in the next 22 days.
New Gold (NGD) (NGD.to): If there’s one thing I like to see from a larger gold operator, it’s a tidy attitude
toward its balance sheet. Last week New Gold announced (12) it was running a refi on its financial debt and
once the pricing was a announced, the market gave the thumbs-up:
20
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead) 9%
8%
7%
ikn 6%
gdx control
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
source: IKN calcs
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
GOLD: Gold sales from Loulo-Gounkoto, per qtr
1.01 8.21 9.01 6.01 6.31 6.31 5.21 4.01 8.31 6.31 9.21 7.21 0.41 0.41 1.41 2.21 4.51 3.41 0.41
9.4
20
18
16
14
12
10 8 6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
GOLD: Gold sales from Loulo-Gounkoto, per qtr %
source: company filings
321 751 631 621 151 541 431 821 731 141 921 141 431 041 541 721 041 731 531
74
160
140
120
100
80 60
40
20
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Koz
source: company filings

TORONTO, March 4, 2025 /CNW/ - New Gold Inc.
("New Gold" or the "Company") (TSX: NGD) (NYSE
American: NGD) today announced the pricing of its
previously announced offering of $400 million
aggregate principal amount of 6.875% Senior Notes
due 2032 (the "Notes"). The offering is expected to
close on or about March 18, 2025, subject to
customary closing conditions. New Gold intends to
use the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes,
together with cash on hand, to fund the purchase of
any and all of its outstanding 7.50% senior notes due
2027 (the "Existing Notes") and to pay related fees
and expenses. New Gold intends to use the
remainder of the net proceeds, if any, to redeem any
Existing Notes remaining outstanding following the
Tender Offer (as defined below) at 100% of the
principal amount thereof on or about July 15, 2025.
As per end 2024 NGD wasn’t exactly swimming in
cash and only runs a positive working cap thanks to
its ongoing inventory levels (of which over 60% is
supplies, try running a going concern mine without
that line item), but on the other hand its liabilities
position is healthy with only U$400m in cash debt
and having managed to extinguish its $50m credit line in 4q24. This move to boot the U$00m out to 2032
and pay less interest on the loan makes sense and reduces any liquidity risk, allowing the company to benefit
more from the higher cash flow coming from gold at the moment. The only trading surprise of the week was
seeing NGD sell off when the refi was announced on Monday, but once the terms were known NGD rallied
well and ended as our best basket performer of the week.
The TinyCaps List
After 10 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a loss of 3.30% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 16.06 0.12 -29.4%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 19.76 0.14 -3.4%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 5.94 0.06 -53.8%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 23.56 0.135 -6.9%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 30.37 0.40 2.6%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 7.72 0.08 0.0%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 236.796 29.60 0.125 -3.8%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 16.11 0.15 76.5%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 24.74 0.47 -14.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 118.384 16.57 0.14 0.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -3.30%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
21

 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps basket dips back into negative territory as PDAC marks the top in several stocks, with the air
coming out of the five losers on the week (CN.v, ELY.v,
KDK.v, LMS.v, MOG.v) as all of those lost at least 10%. The TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
5%
four winners (BRO.v, RDU.v, STS.v, VAU.v) all moved up by 4%
less than 5% and there was one unchanged stock (EDG.v3) 3%
2%
to make up the numbers. So the size of the downers 1%
compared to the uppers made all the difference on the 0%
-1%
week, with big hits suffered by Electrum Discovery (ELY.v
-2%
down 20.0%), Mogotes (MOG.v down 19.4%), Condor -3%
-4%
(CN.v down 17.7%), Kodiak (KDK.v down 13.0%) and let’s
tack on Latin Metals (LMS.v down 11.1%) as well. More
than enough to see our basket hit a low new for the year.
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): Quite the reversal of fortune, as ELY has now busted all the stops on the way
down and while it did trade at 5c on a couple of occasions in 2024, this now has “broken stock” hanging
round its head.
I think I’ve mentioned this before, but ELY was included in this year’s list after a reader suggestion. One I
liked for sure but, while doing research, conversing with said reader and agreeing it would be a good fit and
an interesting stock to follow over the year it was always a 10c-or-abouts stock. It was literally the day after
making the final choices that the stock price suddenly show higher, making the start point of the year 13c
instead of something more representative, but even that was only the halfway point of its speculative pop as
seen on the chart (right). All that is a long-winded way of saying that while ELY’s drop is a nasty one it’s a
little unfair to judge it on a 13c benchmark price. It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve witnessed a tinycapper lose
half its value, only to double again and climb back to unchanged status.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): LMS joined the throng of the classic “Monday PDAC New Release” with its own
version of tinycap exploreco arm-waving (13), “Latin Metals Identifies Geophysical Anomalies at Cerro Bayo,
Santa Cruz, Argentina”, giving it the excuse to run the “We had news out this morning, did you see it?” hook
at its booth.
Cerro Bayo is its South Argentina property, located in the fertile rocks of the Deseado Massif in Santa Cruz
(Cerro Vanguardia, Cerrado Gold, etc) and until last year optioned to Barrick. That ABX handed it back is not
necessarily a bad signal, majors tend to look for specific things when optioning from tinycappers and hand
back quickly if they don’t find what they’re looking for, and LMS is pushing this project hard at the moment,
looking for a new partner to take over and develop using OPM. I wish them luck, plus of course Argentina
was flavour of the month at PDAC 2025 so they have a chance of putting best foot forward, but we again
stress that the reason to keep close tabs on LMS is the Esperanza project, optioned out to privco Moxico
(which has just taken an option on a different Argentina property, unconnected to LMS). If they get drill
permits for that we buy some, if they don’t we won’t.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): The reality of what its $5m placement priced at 42c means to the stock price hit
KDK last week and the open market price is now a fair reflection of the unit price (that includes a half warrant
at 70c). I’ll mention for one last time that I think KDK at this level offers decent risk/reward for your
22
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM ht9
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

speculative copper money, its trading history includes plenty of spike moments and the potential for a quick
flip win. Personally, I’ll stick with Surge Copper (SURG.v) but KDK is a valid alternative.
Condor Resources (CN.v) and Barksdale Resources (BRO.v): The two “funny things happen around
PDAC” stocks from last week had disparate fates while the conference was on:
Neither of them managed to emulate the burst of volume and buying seen two Fridays ago that propelled
them higher, but BRO did at least manage enough to hold onto the gains. Not so CN, which fell immediately
from whence it came. The BRO speculation seems to rest on enough people believing what Quinton Hennigh
says about its chances as a junior exploreco, which goes to show how many times you can fool people as
long as your message delivery is good.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile: The right wing takes control of the Presidential election
With all due respect to Ecuador, the most important election in LatAm this year happens in Chile on
November 16th. All seats of the lower house of deputies are up for grabs, as well as 23 of the 50 seats in the
upper house Senate. However, the main event Presidential election and with eight months to go (and the
race about to start in earnest), we take a look at how the field is shaping up. The visual below from this
report does a good job, (14) with results of the monthly voter intention snapshot taken by Chilean pollster
Criteria since August (typically around 1,000 people interviewed with standard methods and margins of
errors). I’ve changed most of the Spanish to English and added the names, the rest as-is:
23

Clear frontrunner is Evelyn Matthei, clear second place is ex-President Michelle Bachelet, while third is now a
toss-up between Johannes Kaiser and José Antonio Kast. Further behind come Tomás Vodanovic, Carolina
Tohá and Camila Vallejo. Here’s a quick memory jog line on each for those not as obsessed with LatAm
politics as this desk:
 Evelyn Matthei: Your classic standard right wing politico and well-known in Chile. Her politics are a near
direct follow-on from those of Sebastián Piñera QEPD.
 Michelle Bachelet: Twice President of Chile, well-established centre-left politics
 Johannes Kaiser: The new face and the only making significant progress in early polls, Kaiser is from
the right wing but since becoming a Senator has resigned from his party and formed his own
Libertarian group.
 José Antonio Kast: Losing finalist against Gabriel Boric last time, hard right wing.
 Tomás Vodanovic: Relatively new, classic left wing, made his name as representative of a lefty
province.
 Carolina Tohá: A member of the Boric government until this week, when she resigned in order to run in
the election. Centre-left and politically akin to Michelle Bachelet, she’s one of the very few in the
current government that has received
 Camila Vallejo: Hard left wing. Part of the Boric government and one of the original left wing student
stars of 15 years ago.
Chile’s system of primaries mean voters won’t get all those choices in the main election in November. So far
at least Matthei hasn’t shifted from her position as clear frontrunner, but last week got a resounding “no”
from both Kaiser and Kast when she asked that the right wing avoid a primary process and rally round a
single candidate now (i.e. her). Michelle Bachelet is the only real challenge to the political right at this stage
and is almost certainly going to be the left-of-centre candidate on the November ballot. Meanwhile, the most
interesting candidate is the rising star of Johannes Kaiser, who has modeled himself as the “Milei of Chile”
and is taking advantage of the political space left by the very right wing Kast. He may mount a serious
challenge to Matthei as the process unfolds but even if he doesn’t, his Libertarian party politics have made
inroads in a Chile looking toward Argentina these days with “sana envidia” (healthy envy), as they say locally.
The first big date in the process comes on June 29th and the party primaries to decide who makes it to the
ballot. That’s also when we’re likely to see alliances and pacts made between the parties on each side of the
divide.
Argentina: Libra and the end of the Milei honeymoon
The honeymoon has been longer than many expected, but President Javier Milei’s voter approval polling has
finally dipped into a net negative in Argentina. Two reasons:
1) The campaign for the 2025 Legislative elections in Argentina has already hit full speed, despite the
vote being nearly six months away on October 26th. These regularly held elections are for half of the
lower house and a third of the Senate and are basically a midterm verdict on the sitting presidency,
so the result matters at all strata of the Argentine political system.
2) The LIBRA crypto scandal. Though the news cycle has moved on for most of the rest of the world,
the LIBRA crypto coin openly backed by President Milei and the ensuing (and enormous) rug-pull last
month that saw something between U$250m and U$400m change ownership is still a big thing in-
country (this note on the subject (15) published last Thursday in the country’s newspaper of record,
La Nacion, is unadulterated deep Argentina for the political junkie) and has already caused a hit to
the approval rating of both Milei and his sister Karina (who was apparently involved in the run-up to
the launch and has some kind of business association with the founder of LIBRA). There are dozens
of criminal and civil cases already opened, neither does it help that some of the worst affected
investors who lost money are high-traffic social media influencers in Argentina. You may not hear the
noise they make from where you are but the average Argentine gets it 24/7.
The LIBRA scandal is a weak open flank to Milei, who has always made plenty about not being part of the
“political caste” of the country with its classic image of corruption and easy money deals. Add in point 1)
above and it’s unsurprising his opposition (led by BsAs province mayor and now chief rival Axel Kicillof) is
using the scandal to the maximum. The result has seen his approval ratings drop but perhaps more
importantly, his disapproval ratings have shot up sharply as those on the fence about him form more
24

negative opinions. See here (16) for an opinion poll taken by pollster Analogías Inv & Est that’s too long to
excerpt, which goes into great detail about the decline in popularity, the way the majority of Argentines think
the Milei government is authoritarian (over a third even call it fascist) and the way in which the LIBRA
scandal has affected President Milei’s personal image. In mitigation, his hard core support (around 20% to
25% of the country) hasn’t shifted and so far at least, his party hasn’t seen much drop in voter intention for
the lower house and Senate battles in key provinces. That’s an indication the country likes his policies, no
matter what happens to the image of the national executive government or the Milei family.
Argentina gets the PDAC plaudits
And he said, “Truly, I say to you, no
prophet is acceptable in his hometown”
Luke 4:24
No matter the internal issues or the crypto scandals faced by the Milei government, his work received all the
plaudits from foreign onlookers and FDI at PDAC and Argentina was the undoubted LatAm star of the
conference. Central to the show was the keynote Argentina Day conference at which the great and the good
took their turns to extol the virtues of the country, its new attitude and the potential of its mining sector, with
national level heavy hitters such as Karina Milei (as outlined last week) and Eduardo Elzstain, one of the
country’s richest businessmen who has recently moved into the mining space (he also happens to be part of
Milei’s inner circle of confidantes). However, the international audience particularly appreciated the words of
well known faces in the sector. Three examples:
 Mark Bristow of Barrick (17): "We welcome the government's economic reforms and believe in
Argentina's potential. We invite new investors to join us."
 Mike Henry of BHP (18): “Argentina could very well become a top 5 copper producer. Argentina is serious
about competing globally….they know they need to attract capital to make it happen and they are
focused on unlocking the opportunity. Our sector is taking notice.”
 Rio Tinto (RTZ) had one of its underlings doing the talking, but that didn’t make the message any less
positive. Paula Uriba Director, External Affairs for Latin America at Rio Tinto, told the conference her
company has “fallen in love with Argentina” and followed up with flavour on the company’s Rincón lithium
project, with a capex bill of U$2.5Bn and set to produce around 60kmt of lithium carbonate per annum:,
“We are there to stay and we’re going to invest more money. We want to construct a new (lithium)
processing plans and due to that, we applied to be included in RIGI last week.”
 First Quantum’s (FM.to) Tristan Pascall (19) was on hand to extol the virtues of Argentina the country
and his particular appreciation for the province of Salta, location of the company’s big Taca Taca copper
project that’s set to receive its environmental impact permit at any moment and is expected to get green-
lighted at the end of this year (first production slated for 2029). CEO Pascall said, “Argentina is ready for
an exciting expansion in copper production thanks to its improvement in investment attractiveness due to
fiscal discipline and access to the credit market.”
All very positive, I’m sure. Moving on, the push to attract new money continued with the "Why Argentina
Should Be Your Next Strategic Move" presentation (20), including a professional marketing video (21) and
more importantly, round tables of speeches from representatives of the major mining provinces, including a
Q&A afterward. Speakers included suitable and relevant dignitaries from the provinces of Salta, Mendoza, San
Juan, Jujuy, Santa Cruz and Río Negro. Notably, both Mendoz and Río Negro on that list have been trying
very hard to turn around their previous anti-mining reputation since Milei came to power so seeing them
sharing a platform with the established players such as San Juan and Salta was noteworthy. Meanwhile, the
mining secretary of Santa Cruz, which until the rise of San Juan was for years the only province with a truly
mining-friendly image and has more working mines than any other province, made an interesting request as
part of her presentation. Mining Secretary Nadia Ricci made a request (22) to the national executive under
President Milei to extend the RIGI investment program for mine extension and growth projects “…so that
mining companies can extended the mine life of their operations, as this would directly benefit the province.”
To be honest, that’s a very good idea and with many now predicting that RIGI will be extended into the
second half of the Milei presidential terms, it would be a good way of widening its net.
However, the most interesting message from the provinces of Argentina came from La Rioja (23), which is a
surprise in itself as until the arrival of Milei, La Rioja was one of the provinces with a fierce anti-mining stance
25

and reputation. It was the first time that the governor of La Rioja, currently one Ricardo Quintela, had
attended PDAC and he said this (translated) to those assembled:
“We are working on a type of “provincial RIGI” that is attractive to exploration stage companies. We
believe that it would be attractive and we are also working on a provincial law for suppliers, so they
can be on a public register.”
A “provincial RIGI” would of course be at a smaller scale than the national RIGI plan that offers incentives for
projects worth at least U$200m, but anything that encourages explorecos to choose La Rioja sounds good to
this desk. Its geology is every bit as prospective as its neighobouring provinces with advanced mining sectors
(Catamarca to the North, San Juan to the South) but due to its ambivalence toward mining over the decades,
it has been largely ignored. Or in the words of Quintela at PDAC, “The local geology is known by the
Argentine mining world, but the (foreign) mining companies don’t know about our new political stance and
the social acceptance toward mining that we are building.”
Ecuador Presidential election update: Headwinds for Noboa
We’re still two weeks from the official start of campaigning for the 2025 Presidential election run-off between
Righty President Daniel Noboa and Lefty challenger Luisa González, but unofficial campaign is in full swing
and it has to be said, last week was not a good one for Daniel Noboa with three news items creating
headwinds for him, both personally and professionally:
1) The State recently auctioned one of its biggest past-producing oil fields, named Sacha, to a
consortium headed up by Chinese Sinopetrol. However, an investigative journalist last weekend
revealed that the Noboa family’s Nobis investment arm is apparently a (very well hidden) part of
the consortium and that the winners of the auction seem to have been given an unusual amount of
time and leeway to make good on their upfront payment. The story isn’t easy to find in Ecuador
mainstream media, controlled as it is by mostly right wing families and concerns aligned with
Noboa, but the opposition to Noboa in the election has made sure it’s reached scandal level and it’s
bound to be replayed to one and all in the next four weeks.
2) Noboa has made plenty of his crackdown on narco-related violence and Ecuador’s murder rate,
currently the highest in Latin America (which take some doing). However, that image took its own
battering last weekend when a dispute between rival gangs in Guayaquil erupted and 25 people
were murdered, mostly when one of the gangs attacked homes and localities controlled by the
other, going in literally with all guns blazing. The problem for the State is that the incident
happened during a State of Emergrncy crackdown and in a zone that was supposedly heavily
guarded by Ecuador military.
3) Adding insult to injury, Daniel Noboa’s ex-wife has become a media figure in the last few days,
accusing Noboa of “Vicarious Violence” via legal threats and suits designed to keep her away from
her children, stop her and anyone from her family from complaining or voicing opinions against
Noboa and a host of other complaints. Hell hath no fury etc, another dent to his caerefully
controlled image of loving family man and father.
However, it’s not all bad news for the sitting President. Friday and Saturday saw the indigenous umbrella
group CONAIE meet to decide whether they would endorse a candidate in the second round or remain
neutral. We already know that Presidential candidate in round one for the Pachakutik party political arm of
CONAIE, Leonidas Iza, has stated he is in favour of endorsing Luisa González in the run-off and if his 5.25%
of the total vote were transferred to the left-leaning González it would put her in a strong position. However,
CONAIE is not one hermetic bloc of votes and we have already seen at least two of its member groups split
away from the party line.It’s important to remember that though a big pressure group with national
significance, CONAIE isn’t a single entity. Instead it’s an umbrella group that brings together many regional
indigenous organizations and each of those bring their own views and preferences to the table. One of the
biggest sticking points inside CONAIE is the way indigenous were badly treated by the Rafael Correa
governments, ten to 15 years ago and many of those swore oaths to never support him or his party again,
under any circumstances. This partly explains why Luisa González is doing her utmost to separate herself
from her mentor and portray the image f being in charge, rather than being under the control of Correa.
However, some parts of the anti-Correa current in Ecuador are having none of it and they include at least two
of the major groups inside CONAIE. Before the meeting started last week, the Amazonian branch of CONAIRE
known as Confeniae announced it would not support or endorse Luisa González, while during the meeting on
26

Friday the head of the Comich branch of CONAIE covering the Chimborazo region was “invited to leave” the
meeting after stating his group would either remain neutral or support Noboa.
As a result, CONAIE has delayed its final decision on whether to support González or take a neutral position
in the run-off until this coming Wednesday. It’s clear Leonidas Iza would like to endorse González but such a
declaration risks splitting his support base inside CONAIE and putting his position in jeopardy. We also know
the four pillars of policy that CONAIE has as its agenda going forward:
 A stop to the privatization of the Sacha oil field (see above), with a view to closing it down
 Opposition to Noboa’s plan to run a referendum to change the country’s Constitution
 Opposition to large-scale and open pit mining
 Help for national businesses and financial help from the State
We’ll find out on Wednesday whether CONAIE stays neutral or backs Gonzákez but even if it does at an
official level, unofficially the cracks are showing and there’s no way the entire Leonidas Iza 5.25% goes
against Noboa. We reiterate, this election is going to be tight. Time will tell how much of the mud thrown at
the President this week sticks because every vote is going to matter.
Market Watching
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) finances
The last note we ran on Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) was five weekends ago in the Market Watching section of
IKN820 dated February 2nd, under the title “Until further notice for gamblers only”. For what it’s worth, that
weekend I set out to scratch a small update together on the back of the two NRs it published that week, one
on its 4q24 production numbers and the other on its update of 43-101 compliant resources at Mercedes, but
one thing led to another and the “brief” note ended up at six pages long. At the time I thought I’d burrowed
too far down on that company and written too much, the idea after all was only to give a heads-up that BCM
was looking weak and was no longer on my shortlist of possible silver trade. We ran numbers, made
reasonable guesses and these brief extracts from the conclusion section are representative of my opinion
once done:
“Back in 2024 when we bought some BCM and traded it for a quick profit, the thesis was reasonably
straightforward: As long as we could ignore Mercedes and consider it a net neutral, BCM’s leverage
upside would come from its exposure to silver via its big Corani project in South Peru.”
And…
“However, I’m not going to partake this time and if you’ve walked with me through the Mercedes and
then the corporate financials, you probably know what I’m about to say. With its poor Q4, the high
likelihood of another poor quarter in 1q25 and no guarantee of any meaningful improvement for the
rest of 2025, we cannot take Mercedes as a net neutral any longer.”
And…
“…at this point there are too many variables and too many things that can go wrong, both
operationally and financially, to consider BCM as a decent risk/reward opportunity on rising silver at
the moment.
And…
“it seems near certain that they’ll need to go back to the market and raise capital for the 2025 plans
as stand. Either that or come to a new arrangement with creditors to carve out some more working
capital, but either way Mercedes isn’t about to alleviate the weak financial situation at BCM; if
anything, it’s about to make it even worse.”
And…
“With a C-suite that seems set on using its fixed asset value at Mercedes to raise more working
capital and put a flimsy balance sheet under even more pressure, there area host of unknown
variables at this point. How much drilling in 2025? What cost? How long before Mercedes is back
producing 12k oz gold per quarter? Assuming a capital raise, will it be a share placement and if so,
what size and price? What’s the balance sheet going to look like as at 4q24 with the impairment
backed out? Will they be able to procure the equipment and manpower they require from narrow
vein underground mining? Will the grade dilution continue to cause havoc?”
However, both hindsight and the news flow from last week made me glad I’d gone to the extra trouble in
IKN820, because it gave all the prep required for the news that dropped during PDAC Tuesday morning.
Tuesday brought two NRs, here’s the first (24):
27

Bear Creek Mining Announces Brokered Private Placement, Appointment of Peter C.
Mitchell and Ian Grundy as Directors, Debt Amendments and Credit Extension
Two minutes later, this hit the wires (25):
Bear Creek Mining Announces Strategic Review, Appointment of Christian Milau as
Strategic Advisor
Which makes one wonder why they had to publish two NRs instead of one. The likely answer is optics at
some point in the future, as it allows the “strategic review” that’s supposedly all about maximizing
shareholder value to separate itself from the placement that tanked the share price. In real terms, those two
NRs were and there were three main subjects of interest:
1 Changes at director level: Two directors out, as co-founder Andrew Swarthout (from 2003) and Sandra
Daycock (since 2023) step aside, replaced by one Peter Mitchell (a dealmaker) and Ian Grundy (one of the
Sandstorm boys).
2 The strategic review: Another Sandstorm/Equinox/Pathfinder boy Christian Milau has been drafted in to
head the review and unsurprisingly, that very afternoon the feelers started going out from Vancouver
brokerages to companies that may/may not be interested in buying Corani. Personally, I cannot help but
laugh at the prospect of this company, ruined as it was by the purchase of Mercedes from Equinox (the deal
aided and abetted by Sandstorm), now being put under a strategic review led by none other than
representatives of Equinox and Sandstorm. It’s the fox guarding the henhouse is ever there was an example.
3 The private placement: At least there’s no warrant attached, but the bought deal private placement of
64.44m5 shares priced at C$0.225 with a 15% overallotment facility (9.667m shares) looks to raise gross
proceeds of C$14.5m (and again, if it were a normal world they wouldn’t be charging a 6% brokers’ fee on
the vast majority of these shares already earmarked for Sandstorm and other instos, but the way this
company has been drained by Vancouver means it’s just another small layer of graft). Aloong with the deal,
BCM gets payment deferrals on its loan book (again Sandstorm front and centre) so the combo of new
treasury capitalization and ,debt payments deferred until the end of the year allows BCM the liquidity it
obviously needs to get on with its Mercedes
improvements.
Suffice to say that our forecasts made in IKN820 were
prescient, though our either/or on debt or equity raise
has turned out to be both. However, our prediction of
its need for more capital, the likelihood of further
balance sheet weakening and the high risk to its share
price have all been accurate and it’s not difficult to spot
the moment the above was announced on the ten-day
share price chart (right). Ugh. Strategic reviews come
and go, so do members of boards, the dump above is
100% about the placement being run at a fat discount
to market price.
If we assume the overallotment is fully taken, this chart BCM.v: Shares Out
shows what we expect it to do to the share count and
suddenly, from 124m when the Mercedes purchase was
announced (and all the debt taken on board) or 228m in
2024 when we knew without much doubt that things were
going badly there, we’re up to 320m S/O and still no light at
the end of the tunnel. At this weekend’s C$0.21 share price,
that gives an estimated market cap of C$67.2m, or U$47m
and as Corani is carried at almost double that number
(U$93m and change asset value), the dump in BCM implies
Mercedes isn’t even worth its debt book. That’s quite an
indictment for a working gold mine in 2025 with bullion selling where it is, however it does suggest there may
be value here if BCM is serious about this Strategic Review. It could of course decide to sell Corani for under
book but that seems unlikely after all these years, even though it costs the company around U$7m a year in
28
72.421 72.421 58.251 14.351 03.451 46.451 46.451 73.171 37.891
85.722 56.722 627.722
642
023
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

upkeep (which could go lower, but not by much as there’s long-term community agreement in place that it
must honour).
At this point, my best high-level opinion is that BCM may be a trade at these prices, but it’s likely to go quiet
while the strategic review is underway and the negative vibes from yet another placement will hang in the
air, so there’s a chance the share price goes lower before we see any rebound. However, a deal to sell Corani
at book would mean 40c of value per share, that aside from Mercedes and that’s would be more than enough
to see the stock run back up.
Conclusion
We close IKN825 with bullet points:
 I hope I’ve done enough to explain why I’ve done a 180° on Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) and have
decided to take a loss on what is, ultimately, a mistimed trade.
 Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) has been such a dog in the royalty space for so long that I think a lot of
people have written it off. But every dog has its day and with top line revenues about to increase
significantly, more than enough to see the company start to return regular operating profits, the
subsequent asset revaluation is all-but automatic in a sector that will either see equity increase or the
company bought out by one of its rivals. This company at this price and time is the epitome of low-
hanging fruit, just make sure you’re positioned before the 2025 guidance from the company on
March 19th.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos
(MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-9-2025.html
(2) https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
(3) https://erocopper.com/news/ero-copper-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-operating-and-financial-results/
(4) https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=mvwyHhWr
(5) https://www.goldroyalty.com/news/news-releases/gold-royalty-achieves-record-revenue-in-2024
(6) https://www.amerigoresources.com/investors/share-buybacks/
(7) https://www.provenancegold.com/20250228-provenance-gold-intersects-0.8-gt-gold-over-154.23m-from-surface-including-3.02-gt-
gold-over-13.72m
(8) https://www.provenancegold.com/20241011-provenance-gold-closes-over-subscribed-private-placement
(9) https://www.mining.com/web/copper-prices-surge-as-trump-signals-25-tariff-on-imports/
(10) https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/metals-and-mining/solgold-plc-announces-new-ceo-and-chair-and-re-setting-
company-strategy-995401
(11) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrick-says-committed-reaching-mutually-155141704.html
(12) https://newgold.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/New-Gold-Announces-Pricing-of-400-million-Senior-Notes-Offering-to-
Fund-Tender-Offer-for-Outstanding-7.50-Senior-Notes/default.aspx
(13) https://latin-metals.com/news-releases/latin-metals-identifies-geophysical-anomalies-at-cerro-bayo-santa-cruz-argentina/
(14) https://www.t13.cl/noticia/politica/criteria-matthei-encabeza-las-preferencias-presidenciales-bachelet-sube-kaiser-1-3-2025
29

(15) https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/la-explosion-lenta-de-la-criptobomba-
nid05032025/?utm_source=n_&utm_medium=nl_titulares_del_dia&utm_campaign=nota_titulo_1
(16) https://www.lapoliticaonline.com/politica/la-imagen-de-milei-cayo-tres-puntos-y-el-nucleo-duro-se-reduce-al-20/
(17) https://www.panorama-minero.com/en/news/argentina-in-the-global-investor-spotlight-due-to-rigi-a-key-day-in-toronto
(18) https://www.mining.com/pdac-canada-australia-risk-falling-behind-in-investment-race-bhp-boss-says/
(19) https://mase.lmneuquen.com/mineria/quienes-son-los-ceos-mineros-que-elogiaron-la-argentina-y-prometieron-inversiones-
n1178332
(20) https://miningpress.com/nota/367309/argentina-en-pdac-2025-las-estrategias-de-las-provincias-para-potenciar-inversiones
(21) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vHnYRDtbjA&t=10s
(22) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/santa-cruz-pide-incorporar-al-rigi-beneficios-para-extender-la-vida-util-de-minas/
(23) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/ahora-la-rioja-quiere-un-rigi-provincial-para-impulsar-inversiones-mineras/
(24) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/03/04/3036366/0/en/Bear-Creek-Mining-Announces-Brokered-Private-
Placement-Appointment-of-Peter-C-Mitchell-and-Ian-Grundy-as-Directors-Debt-Amendments-and-Credit-Extension.html
(25) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/03/04/3036367/0/en/Bear-Creek-Mining-Announces-Strategic-Review-
Appointment-of-Christian-Milau-as-Strategic-Advisor.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
30

Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
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Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
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