IKN #824Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 824, March 2nd 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Zone floods and Friday wobbles, More words on the gold price, PDAC is here.
Fundamental Analysis: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q24 financials.
Stocks to Follow: Eldorado Gold (EGO): Lumina Gold (LUM.v): Surge Copper (SURG.v): AbraSilver Resource
Corp (ABRA.to): Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Aftermath Silver
(AAG.v), Orecap (OCI.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L), Faraday Copper (FDY.to) and Arizona Sonoran
(ASCU.to).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome (WDO.to) (WDOFF), Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to):
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): Condor Resources (CN.v), Barksdale (BRO.v).
Regional Politics: Four LatAm countries at PDAC, Ecuador Presidential election update.
Market Watching: Equinox (EQX) buys Calibre (CXB.to), An extra thought on Vizsla Silver (VZLA) (VZLA.v),
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main fundies section goes over the Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). Not the first time we’ve
covered the stock (of course), but the combination of financial strength, conservative operational
guidance for this year and the clear prospect ARG will beat in both production and received average
copper price means there’s a high likelihood dividends get very juicy this year. This is our core copper
position for a good reason; my job is to convince you why it can make money for us, not just for me.
 Are you worried about the gold price moving under U$2,900/oz? Read today’s intro, because if it goes
under U$2,700/oz you may have a point but until then, it’s just gold doing what it does.
 The lack of love seen by Aftermath Silver (AAG.v) for its excellent reported hole last week
is…interesting. It’s also an obvious buying opportunity, at Berenguela is shaping up better by the
month. That stock and other notes and snippets in today’s Stocks to Follow section.
 The week in mining will be dominated by the comings and goings of PDAC in Toronto and while
today’s edition makes a couple of passing references to the sector’s biggest conference, we need to let
it roll out and show its contents. In other words, IKN825 will be all the PDAC all the time.
 Other things as well. There are always other things.
Zone floods and Friday wobbles
I don't care if Monday's blue
Tuesday's grey and Wednesday too
Thursday I don't care about you
It's Friday, I'm in love
Friday I'm in Love, The Cure, 1992
The cultural linguistic behind “flood the zone” is interesting for the outsider, e.g. me. Many reading these
words would have heard and even used it for years due to its American Football roots, while more may have
been paying more attention than this desk to Steve Bannon’s words in 2018, “The Democrats don’t matter,
1

the real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with sh*t.” Sporting
expressions are often adopted into the political arena and the above was the crossover moment here, but
even then it flew over my head (I try hard not to obsess over US politics, there’s all the fun I’d ever want
following the madness in LatAm). It’s only recently, with Trump’s second administration and the blatant use
of the strategy, especially when compared to the previous Biden administration, that the phrase has made a
third jump out of politics and into the zeitgeist of the wider public world and, finally, your author noticed.
Flooding the zone is all about adding layers of uncertainty, or even a form of controlled chaos, to the political
arena to keep adversaries at bay and frankly, it’s a winning strategy in its field. Establishment media outlets
cannot keep up with the news cycle and for the freshest “event”, consumers have to plug into social media
(e.g. TwitterX). The new government gives itself a constant supply of trial balloons and can quickly ascertain
which ideas have legs in the public arena and which can be quietly dropped (or simply left to the opposition
to rant about. And on that subject, political enemies are given a constant source of outrage which occupies
them while the Trump executive gets on and does whatever it really wants to do.
However, what’s effective for the political swamp doesn’t necessarily work for capital markets. If you’ve
noticed an extra layer of market volatility in Friday trading recently you’re not alone, one of “flood the zone’s”
more obvious knock-on effects is market instability. We can fall back on the well-tried observation that
markets don't like uncertainty for a general view, but more specifically the effects of the Trump tariff
proposals, the will-he-won’t-he, on trade with China, Canada, Mexico (and now EU), the size of the tariffs,
the exceptions allowed, all this has started to drag on business under the catch-all title of Tariff Fatigue. It
causes inertia, but at the same time we see volatility on Fridays as market participants are more likely to
close out positions, rather than hold them over the weekend because “you never know what he’s going to
come up with next”. This extra layer of volatility has been palpable to tape watchers and has grew through
every Friday in February, which brings us to the point of today’s opening ramble as this coming Friday, March
7th, comes with even more reasons to get jittery. We have:
 The Trump Effect as seen above
 The US BLS Employment Report for February which, according to reliable sources (1), currently
runs a consensus of +158k NFP jobs added and the headline unemployment rate at 4.0%.
 Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to make an important policy speech. His presentation at the 2025 U.S.
Monetary Policy Forum in New York is set for 12:20pm Friday and is entitled “Economic Outlook”
so be clear, there will be plenty of attention paid to that one.
A nice combo for your consideration, perhaps something that may help your Thursday afternoon thought
process. We’re going to have to get used to the unexpected in the next four years, though at least we poor
souls in the junior mining world are used to the resulting volatility
More words on the gold price
Lat week saw gold correct, the approximate range starting at the spot price high of U$2,952/oz seen last
Monday to the low point of U$2,836/oz intraday
Friday, representing a drop of 3.9% (or 3.2% if
you take Friday’s closing price of U$2,858/oz)
(chart right). It's the first correction in the nominal
gold price this year, but (so far at least) it's
smaller in size than the corrections seen last year
in April 2024, July 2024, December 2024 and the
biggest rollercoaster drop that started at
U$2,790/oz in late October and finished at
U$2,562/oz on November 15th and if it sounds
strange to hear gold traded as lowly as that
number less than four months ago, that's nothing
to do with the metal and everything to do with
you. The plain fact is that gold will chop lower
from time to time on its way up, it's part of the
way it trades. And while I'd readily agree that a true tide shift and bear market for gold has to start with the
type of move we saw last week, it's extremely difficult to read the end of a multi-year move into one week's
worth of trading, particularly in the current unstable geopolitical backdrop we face. Chances are that last
2

week's correction and retrace was exactly that, a correction and part of the long move gold is making. And if
you want mitigation, we could also argue that maybe last week in Comex wasn't a correction at all compared
to other markets for the metal, but more to do with the temporary spike in demand for physical gold sparked
by the Trump tariff threats (as treated in last week's intro section note, "Gold supply and demand gets
political". The drop in lease rates we noted last
weekend would mean a drop in demand for physical GLD gold holdings, 2024 to date
this, so in theory at least the gold price drop we saw is 940 (metric tonnes)
more evidence of the temporary blip in the gold 920
market now evened out. Indeed, if we check in on our 900
GLD inventory tracker chart (it’s been a couple of 880
weeks), we see a recent spike that’s moved stocks up 860
41.3 metric tonnes from their mid-February 2025 low 840
to a total this weekend of 904.38mt. That’s inventory 820
that cannot be lent out or form part of the futures 800
market and suggest New York physical buyers who
recently took delivery of metal willing to store, rather
than find some desperate end-user buyer who’ll pay
over the odds.
We're going to see U$3,000/oz gold this year, of that I have little doubt and when it happens, it will probably
be as part of a spike move before consolidating to the new level. But for the meantime, we're going to have
to settle for gold prices that are U$200/oz higher than those used by the world's mining companies to set
record revenue and profits records in 4q24.
PDAC is here
As I write these words, Sunday morning with a coffee to the right of me, the doors are opening on PDAC
2025 and with gold riding high and many exploreco stocks lagging the metals, the field is ripe for the type of
M&A we mentioned last weekend. The deal between Equinox and Calibre (see Market Watching) is a start
and a big ticket deal, but in the junior and exploreco world we’re more likely to see “mergers of equals” (i.e.
equally poor) in the smallcap and tinycap field.
One thing we’re sure to get, however, is an avalanche of news releases and promo pushes as drill assay
results coincidentally arrive back at the company just in time for PDAC Monday. We’ll also have endless
commentary from the mining world about “the atmosphere at PDAC” and how upbeat/downbeat it seems,
then comparing it to the record-breaking price of gold. Anyway, we’ll bring our overview of PDAC highlights
this time next weekend in IKN825.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q24 financials
Those of you who don’t want to trudge through yet another ARG numbers again, here’s the need to know:
 The ARG 4q24 financials came in right in line
 The company declared its 3c dividend, but no share buybacks in 2025 to date and no performance
(bonus) dividend yet, though we’re very likely to see performance dividends paid later this year
 Balance sheet strong and ARG is executing on its plan well
 As usual ARG guided conservatively for the year to come
The house database for ARG is one of the most extensive and detailed for any company, so it can get really
granular and it’s more often a case of what to leave out of an analysis than what to put in. This time around
I’m going to cover the main points, some interesting details and then wrap with the item we should really
care about, the likelihood of large and juicy bonus dividends in 2025. So if you’d like to know anything else
about the company’s numbers, feel free to write in and we can cover the extra in Market Watching next
weekend (or after that). Here we go:
We already knew production in Q4 came to an excellent 18.21m lbs copper, with sales of 18.24m lbs.
3
42/1/2 42/1/61 42/1/03 42/2/31 42/2/72 42/3/21 42/3/62 42/4/9 42/4/32 42/5/7 42/5/12 42/6/4 42/6/81 42/7/2 42/7/61 42/7/03 42/8/31 42/8/72 42/9/01 42/9/42 42/01/8 42/01/22 42/11/5 42/11/91 42/21/3 42/21/71 42/21/13 52/1/41 52/1/82 52/2/11 52/2/52
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

ARG.to: Copper sales
4
28.11 7.31 29.41 9.51 11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 68.41
81.61
97.61 94.61 966.31 779.01 80.61 169.51 33.41 84.61 42.81
20
18
16
14
12
10 8
6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
That made the annual total shipped just over 65m lbs Cu, which compares favourably to 2024 guidance of
62.4m lbs (chart right and please keep an eye on that
heavily cut-down Y-axis). Once again, we see ARG under-
promising and over-delivering a year and that’s something
to keep in mind with the 2025 guidance. I’ve added that
guidance column to the right of this chart, 62.9m lbs Cu
(with 1.3m lbs Mo).
The cut-down Y-axis is used to show how low that ARG
seems. If we roll back the years, 2019 was when the
company was still going through its growth build-out, 2020
was hit by Covid and 2023 was when the extreme storm
event mid-year closed down the MVC plant and everything
else around it (including El Teniente). So storms
notwithstanding (and since then ARG has improved its power infrastructure as well), 62.9m lbs look decidedly
light compared to the more typical production years of 2021, 2022 and 2024.
Before we move away from pounds and tonnes and to
dollars and cents, one final production chart as the
new policy of leaning more heavily on fresh tailings
suuply from DET (El Teniente) is becoming obvious. ARG followed up its record fresh tailings 3q24 by
produced 1.38m lbs more than the previous record,
taking advantage of the lower unit cash of fresh tailings supply (no need to pressure hose the muck
from the historic tailings dump). The greater supply
from DET directly is offset slightly by lower moly
content, but ARG has done its math and the offset
calculations.
So to the money: With sales of 18.24m lbs and an average received copper price of U$4.06/lb copper gross
value came in at U$75.915m, beating our forecast of U$74m because I pitched deliberately conservatively.
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
797.37 904.97 567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 897.66 2.07 846.25 908.25 882.94
630.23
855.14
2.14
3.03 5.95 591.16
4.24
582.16 787.26
129.44
379.26 448.96
206.15
397.86 341.66
834.54
519.57 63.37
218.05
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
ARG: Annual copper sales
U$m
Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
709.26 729.36
508.85
43.65
230.46 21.46
612.75
110.56
9.26
M lbs Cu
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e
source: ARG filings, IKN ests
ARG: Production breakdown by source, per qtr
74.8
30.7
16.7
73.7
73.7
26.8
46.7
62.9
68.6
16.9
97.5
31.9
73.7
36.8
52.6
63.01
83.6
41.01
48.4
97.8
19.2
12.8
86.7
96.8
54.7
55.8
5
89.8
88.4
93.11
45.5
77.21
20
18
16 14 12
10
8 6 4
2
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Mlb Cu
Cauquenes tailings
Fresh tailings
source: company filings

From that, the costs back out of the gross price (below left) came in very close to our forecasts and that's
how it should be, what with covering this stock for umpteen quarters by now. As such, net copper revenues
of U$45.05m was U$1.94m over our model forecast. We then add in the moly by-product credit (below right)
and the U$5.762m result was only just over our U$5.3m guess (tough one to estimate). It adds up to a
revenues total of U$50.812m, $2.4m more than our estimate and nearly all that difference was due to our
conservatively pitched copper gross value.
Put that into the P+L and when COGS are backed out, gross profit comes to U$13.738m:
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
5
624.12
616.1 655.3-
738.8
874.31
503.3- 420.2-
200.6 508.7
394.61
573.7
837.31
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
source: company filings
And while net income of U$2.419m doesn’t look particularly impressive, it’s a mistake to use that metric on
this company.
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr 10.12
74.1- 41.5- 10.1-
44.31
72.3- 3.6- 9.3
84.6
07.51
89.6
12.51
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
ARG: Mo credits
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
What matters here is operating margin in hard cash terms, so by backing out the DD&A, moly royalties etc
from costs we see that its real costs of production for Q4 were right in line, at U$28.689m
605.3 267.4 116.5 822.4 683.3 142.2 294.3 149.5
930.8
958.2 85.4 478.3 454.5 993.6 142.5 267.5
9
8
7
6
5
4 3 2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
ARG: Charges to Cu revs U$m
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
source: company filings, IKN ests
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Transport U$m smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG: MVC tolling and production cost
438.32 982.52 212.72 588.42 121.52 90.52 323.72 952.33 396.03 366.72 949.42 827.82 280.92 298.62 506.92 986.82
40
35
30
25
20 15
10
5
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
source: company filings

Done that way, we can back out the non-cash costs items and reach (what we call) a “real world margin”,
which in Q4 came to just over U$21m. That, in essence, is the cash ARG has to spend on all its plans,
projects, obligations and distributions.
ARG: The real world margin
6
61.0- 30.1
33.21
97.71
24.02
93.22
79.61
15.22
49.52
95.3
20.0-
57.51
4.81
8.1 80.1- 41.9
52.21
25.12
88.21
70.12
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests
Another way of cutting and slicing the data is to consider the main costs on a per-lb basis. They are 1) the
DET royalty 2) classic COGS and 3) smelting and refining costs and in 4q24, the total came to
(1.15+1.73+0.37) to U$32.6/lb (below left). As ARG enjoyed an average received price of U$4.06/lb in the
period, that means it makes U$0.80/lb on every pound of copper (below right). And that’s good money, with
4q24 the best margins since the heady days of 2021 and early 2022.
ARG: Main costs per Lb Cu
The bottom line: A solid a profitable quarter for ARG, its operations working as they should in regular and
reliable style. As for what it’s doing with the money made, we now check the balance sheet starting with the
long-term view and our overview charts for assets and liabilities:
The long-term charts above show a graceful and steady evolution, but there are a couple of items in the
latest liabilities total worth mentioning. Firstly, ARG reported (and underscored in the Conference Call) that
there’s a $4m or so payment left over from 4q24 which was eventually paid in the first days of January,
second that the tax accrual is now over $8m (it pays its dues with Chile on a monthly basis, with the
estimated liability set back to zero when the tax year ends in April). Those two have skewed current liabilities
09.1
73.1
10.2
32.1
39.1
88.0
01.2
39.0
19.1
21.1
73.2
20.1
44.2
79.0
60.2
89.0
69.1
50.1
69.1
92.1
39.1
61.1
37.1
51.1
4.00
3 3 . . 0 5 0 0 0.39 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.42 0.39 0.37
2.50 2.00 1.50
1.00 0.50
0.00
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$/lb smelt/refine/lb ARG: Estimated margin/Lb Cu
cash cost/lb
DET royalty/lb
source: ARG data, IKN calcs
62.0 01.0 16.0 16.0 30.0- 44.0 85.0
90.1 38.0 79.0 70.1 40.1 99.0
74.0 23.0 14.0 95.0
10.0-
60.0- 83.0 75.0
27.0 47.0 08.0
1.20
1.10
1.00 0.90
0.80
0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40
0.30 0.20 0.10
0.00
-0.10 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$/lb Cu
source: ARG data, IKN calcs
ARG.to: Total Assets
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ARG.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
200
cash&eq Trade/Rec
Inventory other current 180
fixed 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab

somewhat, but we’re going to see that revert to the normal in 1q25 and onward. This also explains why the
cash level is relatively high at $34m, well above the $25m level at which ARG tells us it will distribute excess
cash to shareholders under normal circumstances.
ARG.to: Cash and ST
As for working capital (above right), that came in at negative U$6.513m but once again, I stress that ARG is
one of the very few companies where that level of negative working cap is not an issue. I’ve fielded private
correspondence questions about this previously, so here are a couple of extra charts to explain in general
terms. There are a couple of other wrinkles, but the main difference is due to the DET royalties (below left).
ARG items this as a current liability and while it does vary from quarter to quarter (depending on the amount
of copper produced at the received price), this is a rolling payment it makes on a constant basis. The DET
royalty comes out of the raw copper gross value number and by the time it gets to the P+L it’s gone, so it’s
not a liquidity suck on cash flow (or our “real world margin”, as seen above). So while the 4q24 DET liability
is in currents at U$22.634m, its effective change is the $2m or so that was added since 3q24. Long story
short, to get a more realistic handle on balance sheet liquidity we can back the DET liability out of the
working capital calculation and while not exact, it’s a far better proxy to reality (below right):
This chart also balances the extra cash in treasury in Q4 with the non-paid $4m bill mentioned above and we
see the way ARG manages its cash more clearly. They tell us they want at least $25m in treasury to start
paying extra dividends, in fact it’s more like having $20m here. Before we leave balance sheet items, ARG
confirmed that they are on track to re-pay all its cash debt (line item borrowings) this coming year, with two
payments scheduled to clear it all. This chart shows the evolution of this facility and the company also
recognizes that once this is paid off, it will have perhaps U$7.5m on hand to fund better dividend payments.
7
590.17
20.35
318.14 128.73 329.34
576.13
131.31 842.61 108.31
637.82 721.52 468.43
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
$m ARG.to: Working capital
source: company filings
494.43 209.01
58.6 79.9
806.21
998.4- 27.21- 503.21- 781.4- 474.1-
958.4- 315.6-
40
35
30
25 20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
source company filings
ARG.to: DET Royalty liability
612.32 490.91 621.51 708.61 457.02 725.51 188.11 401.71 189.71 509.91 686.02 436.22
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m ARG.to: Working capital without DET Royalty
source company filings
17.75 699.92
679.12
777.62
263.33
826.01 938.0- 997.4 497.31
134.81
728.51 121.61
60
50
40
30 20
10
0
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
source company filings
ARG: Debt profile
23.825.7
9.410.19.49.9
14.217.114.910.79.27.07.37.07.57.07.67.07.510.38.58.08.47.5
9.44
9.13
7.54 8.54 2.14 2.14 0.93 7.63 1.23
8.62 8.62
4.32 5.32 0.02 1.02 6.61 7.61 7.21 8.21 4.01 5.01
4.6 5.6
2.3
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
long-term borrowings
current borrowings
source: company data

CEO Aurora Davidson fielded a question on this in the conference call Q&A and while she didn’t give a
definitive answer, it’s fairly clear ARG is looking to raise the standard 3c/qtr dividend to 4c once the debt is
off the books.
ARG.to: Shares Out
190
With the subject broached, a heads-up on what we expect 185 (NB: cut down Y-axis)
180
in shareholder returns from ARG in 2025. With its 175
conservative assumptions for production (62.9m lbs Cu), 170
165
received price (U$4.15/lb Cu) etc, plus capex and 160
155
sustaining capex obligations of around U$13m for the
150
year, ARG has made sure it has its baseline fully funded. 145
140
So anything above its lowball guidance frame is likely to
go back to shareholders. On that, the current share count
of 164.9m as at Feb 28th is unlikely to drop much at first,
as the clear inference from the Conference Call is that ARG
will prioritize Bonus Dividend payments in 2025 and make minor share buybacks in order to maintain the
share count roughly where it is. If the year goes well and there’s cash left over after a decent performance
divi, we could then see more aggressive share buybacks.
As for the eventual bonus dividend, much depends on what copper-the-metal does (of course) but we can
make some rough estimates as to cash available. If we assume its lowball 62.9m lbs of copper production
guidance, sold at U$4.15/lb, also as per the corporate guidance, allows the company to cover all plans and
pay its quarterly 3c Canadian dividend, then we can put together this simplified table of data:
Cu prod Potential extra revs at various Cu prices
Mlbs 4.15 4.25 4.50 4.75
62.9 0.00 6.29 22.02 37.74
64 4.57 10.97 26.97 42.97
65 8.71 15.22 31.47 47.72
This shows the amount of USD surplus revenues we can expect from ARG at reasonably higher copper
production levels and reasonable higher copper prices. Now of course a dump in the copper price and all bets
are off, what we’re considering here are the amounts ARG could deliver above and beyond its baseline. The
default result is that of the company in the top left, with a U$4.15/lb average copper price and 62.9m lbs
copper produced leaving no surplus revenue. The other boxes show improvements to that baseline, for
example if ARG sells 64m lbs copper in 2025 at an average of U$4.50/lb, it will receive an extra U$27m above
and beyond its in-house budget. According to the company, that’s bonus dividend cash so with 164.9m
shares out, we can run another table showing the per share potential in Canadian Dollars:
Cu prod Potential Perf dividend/share (CAD$)
Mlbs 4.15 4.25 4.50 4.75
62.9 0.00 0.05 0.19 0.32
64 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.37
65 0.07 0.13 0.27 0.41
This isn’t my most elegant presentation, but the information is there. For example, 64m lbs of copper sold at
U$4.50/lb offers a potential performance dividend of 23c/share. In other words, 35c/share in dividends in
2025. This final table shows what kind of price target such a bonus dividend might imply:
Amerigo (ARG.to): Dividend Yield Percentage Spread Table
Share Dividend per year (Cad Dollar Cents)
price CAD$ 12 15 20 25 30 35
1.40 8.57 10.71 14.29 17.86 21.43 25.00
1.60 7.50 9.38 12.50 15.63 18.75 21.88
1.80 6.67 8.33 11.11 13.89 16.67 19.44
2.00 6.00 7.50 10.00 12.50 15.00 17.50
2.20 5.45 6.82 9.09 11.36 13.64 15.91
2.40 5.00 6.25 8.33 10.42 12.50 14.58
2.60 4.62 5.77 7.69 9.62 11.54 13.46
2.80 4.29 5.36 7.14 8.93 10.71 12.50
3.00 4.00 5.00 6.67 8.33 10.00 11.67
source: ARG data, IKN estimates
8
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

Today’s share price and an assumption of the standard 3c/qtr dividend implies a 6.67% yield, which may be
slightly low for this company on a historic basis but the market is starting to price in the potential for
performance (bonus) dividends. However, this desk strongly believes that nice Mr. Market hasn’t realized
what kind of bonus ARG might offer in 2025 and this table lays out the potential. For example, an 8c
performance bonus would bring the total for 2025 to 20c Canadian and if ARG prices in a 10% yield, that’s a
C$2.00 share price. However, the previous tables show that any average copper price above U$42.5/lb
implies a potential pool for performance dividends that can at least double the baseline 12c per year and in
these cases, a 10% yield would imply a share price between C$2.40 and C$2.60. Those who dare to dream
can look at the implications of the 35c column.
Bottom line: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) has gained an image of being a safe, steady, staid option for those
looking for copper exposure. However, the solid 2024 results and the conservative parameters laid out by the
ARG team last week, headed by its outstanding CEO Aurora Davidson (how I wish they were all this good),
has major implications for share price improvement in 2025. There’s plenty of evidence that suggests the
market hasn’t put two and two together yet, it’s been used to the way it’s delivered in its interrupted 2023
and recovery 2024 and thinks we’re in for the same thing in 2025. Not at all, as the balance sheet is now
topped up and all excess won’t be for this-or-that, as it’s all covered using the lowball assumptions in
company guidance. Instead, ARG is set to rock the sector with eye-catching performance (bonus) dividends
as long as copper stays where it is and the company
does what it usually does and deliver more than it
promises. At this weekend’s C$1.81, ARG offers
outstanding value in U$4.50/lb copper market.
I urge anyone in the market for extra copper exposure
to buy and own Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). You’ll like
the quarterly dividends, you’ll like the way the company
goes about its business, you’ll really enjoy the moment it
declares the next performance bonus and what’s more,
when the stock starts pricing in those extra dividends,
you’ll love the fact that you got in under C$2.00.
Stocks to Follow
A week in which gold dropped by 2.8% (GLD proxy), silver dropped by 4.3% (SLV proxy), PM producers
dropped by 2.7% (GDX proxy) and juniors by 3.4% (GDXJ proxy) isn’t going to be great for a portfolio such
as the one below, so while certainly down on the week with just five winners (EGO, ARG.to, ABRA.to, PGZ.v,
MENE.v), four unchanged stocks (SRL.v, SURG.v, MIRL.cse, PGDC.v) and nine losers (MAI.v, RIO.v, MARI.to,
AAG.v, RPX.v, ERO.to, OCI.v, IPT.v, PAU.cse), I can’t help but feel it could have been a lot worse, with the
only double figure percentage loser, Provenance Gold (PAU.cse down 15.6%) part of the Watch List and most
of the losers small drops well inside near-term trading ranges.
A reminder that the list is now in rough order of personal position size and, for what it’s worth (after fielding
a query or two), please consider the top five (RIO.v, MAI.v, EGO, ARG.to, MARI.to) as the ones that most
matter to my net worth.
The addition of Lumina Gold (LUM.v) to the Watch List means we’re back up to 19 names on the Stock to
Follow list, one under our self-imposed maximum, but still only 16 owned personally. Nine stocks are in the
green, ten are in the red and of those, the ones causing pain at the moment are Eldorado Gold and Ero
Copper. Can’t add Rio2 to that list, the pain from holding that used to be a lot worse.
9

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.3075 46.4% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.74 -7.5% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$15.93 11-Aug-24 U$13.77 -13.6% Added Feb'25, cheaply value
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.81 17.5% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.36 75.7% Quality Cu developer
AbraSilver ABRA.to STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$3.08 12.8% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Aftermath Silver AAG.v STR BUY $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.48 12.9% New silver trade going well
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.09 12.5% Ecuador elex/buyout trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.12 9.1% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v SPEC BUY $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.10 -4.8% bulk copper in good address
Ero Copper ERO STR BUY C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$17.08 -11.8% near/medium term Cu fliptrade
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.145 -23.7% Cu jr, some recovery recently
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.055 -8.3% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.18 -40.0% Silver spec, done nothing
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Lumina Gold LUM.v WATCH C$0.63 23-Feb-25 C$0.61 -3.2% Ecuador gold developer
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.04 100.0% Rio Negro gold developer
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.225 123.5% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.14 -68.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): ADDED. As per last week’s main
fundies section, the personal EGO position has grown and is now
the clear 3rd largest in cash terms. I got enough at a low price
(but could have bought lower) to drag the cost average under
U$16, the position is now fully filled and there won’t be any
personal additions. For one thing I’m all but tapped out now, for
another this publication doesn’t normally concentrate so much of
the portfolio in a larger producer. But outstanding value is
outstanding value and with EGO currently misunderstood and
mis-priced, it’s as good a trade as any of its smaller cousins.
In trading, EGO threatened to have another rotten Friday, but the lows were at the open and the close saw
the best prices of the day, along with a decent volume spike (chart right). It added up to a 2.7% week-over-
week win on a down week for most of its peers, a reasonable start to its recovery.
Lumina Gold (LUM.v): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. As threatened and promised last weekend, the
interesting Lumina Gold (LUM.v) and its Cangrejos project are now part of the Watch List, with a view to
monitoring the stock and potentially buying if the Ecuador run-off election goes our way. Indeed, it may even
be a buy if Noboa loses and Luisa González wins, as it would presumably see selling in stocks such as this
10

one and a new low entry point. It’s not as if González is full anti-mining, after all. More on the nuances of
that if 1) Leonidas Iza/CONAIE backs the RC ticket and 2) she wins, as too much conjecture is bad for the
soul.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): A different week would have seen
my newly expanded position move into the green and stay there
for the weekend, but there was too many nerves about on
Friday for the common or garden penny stock to find support so
no surprises when a couple of modest sales were enough to
knock SURG back to unchanged on the week. On the bright side,
we’re getting plenty of confirmation that 10c-or-thereabouts is a
strong floor level.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.to): Here’s a development I didn’t expect (2):
Toronto, ON – February 24, 2025 – AbraSilver Resource Corp. (TSXV: ABRA) (“AbraSilver” or the
“Company”) is pleased announce that it has received final listing approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange
(the "TSX") to graduate from the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSXV"). The common shares of the Company
(the "Common Shares") will begin trading on the TSX effective at the market open on February 27, 2025,
under the symbol "ABRA".
And with that, ABRA becomes a Tee Oh company which opens it up to more institutional investors and stock
tracking ETFs and funds. It also means its C-suite gets a performance bonus, but let’s not get too cynical. In
trading, ABRA added a penny which is a reasonable performance considering the negativity out there for
metals stories, particularly silver stocks.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): In IKN821 we
documented the dump on PAU shares from 27c to 21c on
the back of a small paragraph tacked onto the end of its
NR that week, the subtitled “EC-02 and EC-03 Assay
Update” which pre-warned that the two remaining holes
from its recently completed drill campaign hadn’t come out
as well as they wanted. The chart (right) shows how the
stock price recovered from the worst of those losses and
went into last week the results assay NR (3) at 23c.
Here’s how those holes looked:
 EC-02: 0.51 g/t Au over 156.4m
 EC-03: 0.8 g/t Au over 154.23m
Both holes saw mineralization from surface and DC-03 also included a high grading zone of 3.02 g/t Au over
13.72m. There’s nothing outright bad about those results, but they weren’t great and certainly a long way
from the promise generated in 2024, most notably by EC-01 and its 2.01 g/t Au over 288.34m. Therefore we
turn to the mitigation of these sub-optimal results and here’s the relevant paragraph from last week’s NR:
As part of its maiden 2024 three-hole core drilling program, the Company drilled holes EC-02 and EC-03 (HQ)
to depths of 156.4 meters and 200.6 meters, respectively. Drill equipment issues and difficult drilling conditions
through the heavily faulted, fractured, and brecciated zones in this area resulted in significant loss of core and
both holes were unable to reach the intended target depth. Given the nature of the core loss, it is suspected
that the assay results from EC-02 and EC-03 underrepresented the coarse gold fraction that was seen in ED-
04. The strongest gold values are typically associated with gold and pyrite fracture coatings in the heavily
fractured and sheared host diorite. Further, around holes ED-04, EC-02 and EC-03, the breakage and core
loss were preferentially along the mineralized fractures associated with the weakest and most erodible rock
that hosts the majority of the gold mineralization, based on observation and historic studies.
For context, the aforementioned ED-04 assayed 1.64 g/t gold over 137.16m and included a high grade zone
of 3.98 g/t Au over 32m at the bottom of the hole. So again, not a deep hole and seemingly stopped out
when things were getting hot. This target seems to need either a more powerful drill rig and wider diamond
coring, or more likely an RC hole or two to get a better handle on the brittle brecciated rock down there.
11

Therefore, seeing PAU announce the upcoming 10,000m drill program set to start this very month will be a
mix of diamond and RC drilling makes sense. I also learned that erodible is a correct alternative spelling.
Putting two and two together, there are reasonable excuses here. The three hole diamond drill first pass hit
problems in 2024, even as the deposit showed plenty of promise and the team now has plenty more
information with which to work, as well as being pre-warned about the tough drilling conditions they’re going
to have in the upcoming campaign and what they can do about it. I’d agree the above mitigation paragraph
could be reaching for excuses, but we can also take PAU at face value and give them a reasonable second
chance to impress us this year, all they have to do is show they’re learned from the issues hit in the latest
two holes and find solutions (then of course hit more great grades over long intervals).
Last week’s selling pushed PAU shares back under 20c for the first time since early October, just after the
buzz had started in this story (the late September launch off the 10c level…which I missed). When PAU
popped as high as 40c on the back of the EC-01 assay result, I thought hard about scratching it from the
Watch List of stocks (see IKN813 and IKN814) but at this weekend’s price, it’s starting to offer reasonable
entry opportunities again. It raised just under $1.5m late last year in its share placement and at some point
PAU will need to go back to market to fund its 10,000m drilling plans, let’s see at what price that happens
before making any further decisions. I see no rush to own today, even after last week’s selling.
Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to): First a reminder that ERO reports its YE and 4q24 this coming Thursday,
March 6th. It has already pre-announced Q4 production results as well as guidance for this year and beyond,
which we covered in the main fundies section of IKN822 dated February 16th. To wit, here are the two main
takeaways from the conclusion of that note by way of reminder, with the first most relevant to Thursday:
Despite lower than expected production, the market has realized ERO is a still a profitable and interesting
entity in its own right. Tucumã is behind schedule by a quarter, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to fail and
both grade and recover numbers indicate a mine that’s going to meet expectations. Caraiba had a hard
time, but it’s seemingly one-time interruptions. Xavantina might not be mining the ultra-high grade of recent
quarters, but it’s still a highly profitable mine. So put all that together and that nice Mr. Market seems willing
to forgive this latest lapse, as there’s a lot of free cash flow built into this company’s numbers at current
metals prices. It may have come in low, but low is more than enough at C$20 to make for sparkling
numbers
ERO continues to be an obvious M&A target. A heady combination of operating and profitable mines, growth
baked in an established land position in one of the better South American jurisdictions, ERO has a lot to
offer the madcap suitor looking to expand production and pipeline.
IKN824 back. We saw Eldorado (EGO) punished twice for
the same crime last week, when reporting its quarter with
numbers fully in-line with previously disclosed production
and guidance but seeing its share price whacked again. Will
the same happen to ERO this time? In this weird market
nothing surprises this deck, but I am ultimately obliged to
fall back on fundamentals and the true value ERO offers at
this current price deck. In trading, ERO once again suffered
more than most of its copper peers when the downturn
came on Thursday and Friday, as seen in this chart in which
the main copper ETF (COPX) clearly out-performed.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): No news is good news, I suppose. I shot RIO.v chair Alex Black a quick “any news from
Fenix?” question yesterday Saturday evening, here’s the answer received, word for word:
“Steady she goes. All tracking well so far. We will provide a quarterly update in early April.”
So now you know. In trading, RIO.v lost four cents as it tracked the median of the gold sector in regular
action.
Atermath Silver (AAG.v): The drill hole of the week, as far as I’m concerned at least. On Thursday
morning AAG dropped this NR on the market (4), reporting two holes from the East end of its Berenguela
silver/copper/manganese project in the South of Peru and this is the bullet point section at the top of the NR:
12

Highlights of the current drilling include:
AFD100 intersected 156m @ 290g/t Ag + 1.12% Cu + 7.3% Mn from surface including 6.9m @ 4,877 g/t Ag +
2.87% Cu + 12.4% Mn from 27.3m down hole;
AFD100 also intersected 5.35m @ 738g/t Ag + 0.98%
Cu + 4.8% Mn from 182m down hole;
AFD101 intersected 61m @ 55g/t Ag + 1.02% Cu
+4.87% Mn from 14.90 m, followed by 55.6m @ 40g/t
Ag + 1.03% Cu + 8.54% Mn from 96.40m demonstrating
consistent high Cu assays over wide intercepts.
While AFD101 was a reasonable hole in line with
previous assays in the zone, AFD100 was nothing
short of excellent. The overhead map (right) from the
accompanying literature shows the location of the two
holes (collared on the same pad). Along with the
maps, we got more details of both holes and this table
shows more about AFD100:
Effectively, AAG drilled through plenty of the same type mineralization that typifies Berenguela, but also
intersected a very high grade vein zone that bumped up the overall average. Do the math and the non-vein
part of that 156m intersect grades around 77 g/t silver, so the
implication is of bonanza zones inside the main pit that display the
power of the motor that drove this system. It’s slightly unfair to
use just one image fomr the core section diagrams, as they’re best
seen in series (AAG has put the PDF together in a smart way that
makes the comparison of silver, copper and manganese grades
intuitive and easy), but one as a sample makes sense to show the
difference between holes 100 and 101. The continuation of the
ultra high grade zone hit by 101 exists, no matter whether it’s eventually hit by a drill rig or whether we have
to wait until the open pit is dug.
Despite this stonker of a hole, AAG managed to do this at market:
I fully expected the pop at the open on Thursday, this hole ticks all the boxes as a market mover. But the
move didn’t last long and AAG moved back to the market average. That was the first surprise and while the
NR had the bad luck to hit on a down day for metals and miners, the surprise got worse when AAG went into
full sell-off mode, down way more than the median (silver producer ETF SIL proxy) and closing at 45c. To its
13

credit, a little sanity returned on Friday and AAG rallied while and recovered 5.5% of that mess, but the
damage had been done and somehow, the stock ended
the week down 2c.
The reason seems to be a revival of the “Be Careful Of
The Manganese” talk on the back of this hole, most likely
kindled by Rick Rule who tweeted as much on Thursday,
at roughly the same time the stock went in to freefall. Like
it or not, a lot of people hang on Rule’s words and while
he’s certainly good at what he does, he’s clearly not up to
speed about AAG at Berenguela. At this point, I remind
readers that I was also very skeptical about Berenguela
for literally years, up to the moment we got met results
from the company that show how, yes indeed, all three
metals are recoverable using reasonably standard
technology and with good recoveries. While lab scale isn’t field scale, AAG has done everything it should have
to this point to show its met is workable, so seeing the stock drop on arguments that have been successfully
addressed is a classic buying opportunity moment for those with a better handle on this story. That seems to
be what happened on Friday, the rally kicked in and was sustained all day despite a nervy market for most
mining stocks. With PDAC on this week, AAG has the perfect platform to address its new batch of naysayers
and show the wider world what I already believe, that it has the goods at Berenguela.
Orecap (OCI.v): The liquid-ish asset valuation chart tells us why OCI is now under 6c:
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.445 5.24 2.1
ARIC.v 7.39 0.46 3.40 1.4
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.26 1.08 0.4
XXIX.v 39.097 0.10 3.91 1.6
MERG.v 5.125 0.025 0.13 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 14.51 5.9
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 15.71 6.3c
At 247.714 S/O
The three biggest holdings at OCI all lost ground and with the
6.3c overall value, the arbitrage is down to 14.5% (ex-land
assets). There’s no such thing as the “no-lose lottery ticket” in
this sector, however there are stocks tinycap penny prices,
very low downside risk and the potential to run quickly if
things go well. All that applies to OCI and in this case, its
generator/incubator position in the centre of Ore Group allows
any one of the group’s wider stories to deliver that success.
Holding.
The Copper Basket
After nine weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 1.20% to level stakes:
14

Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 645.83 2.35 64.3%
2 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 331.46 2.06 24.8%
3 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 330.12 0.11 -15.4%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 312.64 1.84 -3.2%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 148.409 261.20 1.76 19.7%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 259.29 2.08 1.5%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 162.22 0.79 6.8%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 157.10 0.62 12.7%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 96.91 0.64 -4.5%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 74.52 0.445 -35.5%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 55.12 0.46 -27.0%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 25.80 0.10 -9.1%
13 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 22.45 0.64 6.7%
14 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 83.164 13.72 0.165 3.1%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 13.12 0.23 -27.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 1.20%
A second negative week for The Copper Basket, down The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
8.0%
another 1.8% and back to trying to keep its head above
7.0%
the water line. 6.0%
5.0%
There were six winners (ATX.v, REG.v, FDY.to, BIG.v, 4.0%
3.0%
KBX.cse, PM.cse) and nine losers (SOLG.to, ALDE.v,
2.0%
TMQ.to, ASCU.to, AE.v, HCH.v, ECU.v, XXIX.v, LBC.v) 1.0%
and while only one of the 15 was a double figure 0.0%
-1.0%
percentage mover, Atex Resources (ATX.v up 10.3%)
the median loss was elevated this week with seven of
the nine losers down at least 6%.
As for copper the metal, it would have been a fairly quiet trading week if it weren’t for one event (5):
American head of state Donald Trump has directed the US government to explore potential tariffs on
copper imports, marking another significant move in his administration’s ongoing trade strategy.
The executive order, signed on Tuesday (February 25), instructs the commerce department to
investigate whether imported copper poses a national security risk under Section 232 of the Trade
Expansion Act of 1962.
The decision has already triggered a sharp reaction in the global copper market, widening price
spreads for the red metal and prompting traders to start rushing shipments to the US.
The ten-day chart of our preferred Comex futures contract (we’re now using HGK25 with May delivery, the
March contract has all-but rolled over) shows the reaction
to that signature on Tuesday morning, followed by the
unwind when sector analysts had done their soothing. As
The USA is around 6% of the world market and China is
over 55% these days, anything “tariff” matters far more
than anything US-centric.
Indeed, we should also note that the lack of movement
aside that temporary shock is testament to the inertia all
the tariff talk brings. For example, an angle to note in
passing is the lack of speculation around China's upcoming
National People's Congress, scheduled as from this
Wednesday March 5th. This time of year is typical for talk
on some type of Chinese stimulus package but this time around in 2025 (or snake, if you prefer) the chatter
is noticeable by its absence. Instead it's all the Tariffs all the time and Trump's influence sits heavy over the
copper market, as much as anywhere else. That’s why we get headlines such as "US Copper futures rise as
15
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM
source: IKN calcs

tariff worries mount" on Thursday (6), followed by "Copper slips to lowest in over two weeks in trade war
fears" on Friday (7). That second report includes this line:
"Concern about an escalating trade war sent a chill through wider financial markets, hitting stocks
and sending the dollar to near multi-week highs."
In an otherwise neutral market, higher dollar = lower copper (or any other commodity, for that matter), so
with the physical copper market still unsure what will happen to demand, moves in the counting bean current
trump (pun intended) those of the specialist market.
It’s the end of another month, so first we’ll check in on the long-term copper inventory tracking charts
(running for a cool 13 years and counting) and then we move to our regular weekly slot. The two takeaways
from the long-term chart are 1) the return of stock to SHFE and its classic seasonal hike, also 2) when
combined with the recent hike in Comex inventory, world stocks are now at their highest aggregate levels
since 2018. Other memories of that year are how France beat Croatia in Russia to win the World Cup, how
Covfefe was a word and how Covid wasn’t. Long time ago.
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
16
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME source: Cochilco
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
Enough long-term, let’s check on the week’s changes in copper stocks, data as ever from Cochilco:
 Another week of net additions to the world’s copper stocks, but this time only by a hair’s breadth
as just 195 metric tonnes (mt) were added to the three official systems overall. The weekend’s
total is 616,980mt and the slowdown has arrived, right on time.
 The SHFE copper stocks rose by 8,246mt to close Friday at 268,337mt, still a significant add but a
lot less than the big gains of the previous three weeks. See the dedicated chart below for a llittle
more.
 LME stocks seem to have found some sort of equilibrium in recent weeks, we've been in a tight
range revolving around this weekend's total of 262,075mt since October, a full five months worth
of treading water. Last week saw then drop 5,675mt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see roughly the
same amount go back in next week.
 As for the Comex, another small drop taking us away from the 100kmt line, this weekend's total at
85,568mt and apparently not much panic hoarding going on in the run-up to Trump's first tariff
bonanza next week.
Just the one dedicated SHFE chart this week, enough to show how the thick black line for 2025 is now
starting to show a topping-out pattern, with both warehouse levels and seasonal timing right in line with a
normal year. Happy to take a little normality in our crazy world for a change.

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): The mind goes back to 2019 when visitors to
PDAC were assailed with SOLG hoardings and adverts at every corner, from
lobbies of hotels and even Pearson arirport baggage pick-up (example right).
We’re a long way from that these days and as seen in this price chart of its main
London listing, Friday’s close of 6.17p is almost back to 52 week lows. SOLG filed
its December 31st quarter to SEDAR two weeks ago (slightly late to it here) and
declared a cash position of just over U$13m, which is what they have left from
the recent U$33.4m gold stream sale. Background burn has dropped to around
U$1.5m per month, then financing costs did them for another $5m in the quarter
to December, so even though CEO Caldwell has reeled in the eye-wateringly high
G&A SOLG used to run it’s going to have to go back to market at some point in
2025.
SOLG is one of the stocks I highlighted as a potential trade in the event of a
Noboa win in Ecuador’s election, but it’s also fair to say that I prefer SRL (small
holding) and LUM (now Watch List) over this one. Noboa winning will change its
fortunes and at these new lows, there may be a speculative trade for those with
enough gumption but for the time being, I’ll sit it out. Once we know how the company plans to replenish
working capital I’ll revisit.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) and Faraday Copper (FDY.to): In 2024 I ran a handful of quick notes
comparing the price action of these two reasonably
near-neighbour copper plays and for the most part, FDY
came out looking better. However and as seen in this
updated 12 month chart (right), the rally put in by ASCU
in late 4q24 and 1q25 moved it into the lead for a while.
Last week saw ASCU retreat somewhat from its sharp
rally and FDY re-took the lead on the yearly chart, but

it’s not by much and both companies have done well enough since copper started its rally last year.
When President Trump turned a spotlight on the copper last week, the market’s first reaction was to run up
the price of the metal. That didn’t last long (see above) but we should take the US administration at face
value on its desire to secure domestic copper supply and that should be positive for exactly this type of
company. On my PDAC checklist is a line telling me to look out for comments from companies such as ASCU,
FDY, BIG, IE and others regarding the US government position re. copper and any advantage they see to the
change in political landscape.
The Producer Basket
After 9 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 10.49% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1127 48.28 42.84 15.1%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 47.94 96.28 23.1%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 31.03 17.75 14.5%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 27.46 142.92 21.5%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.49 2.66 9.0%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 2.82 13.77 -7.4%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.15 2.72 9.7%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 1.92 3.88 -2.5%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 1.82 6.13 9.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 148.95 1.50 10.06 12.0%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 10.49%
After weeks of near-unadulterated pain we finally, FINALLY saw out ten picks perform better than the GDX
benchmark. More precisely “less worse”, because the week was still a net loser but with five winners (AEM,
FNV, EGO, SAND, WDOFF) and five losers (NEM, GOLD, BTG, OGC.to, NGD) we managed to cut our deficit to
GDX in the first two months of 2025 to 6.64%. Still a bad performance, of that there’s no doubt, but bad is
better than awful.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
30% comparative to GDX control
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
We’re not going too heavy on this section today, having just been through a whole bunch of Q4 numbers and
with another handful to come. For example, WDO which reports on March 19th.
Wesdome (WDO.to) (WDOFF): Strange things do happen
in the days before PDAC (see TinyCaps below), but in this case
the rally seen in WDO last week is at least logical. It’s virtually
impossible to second-guess M&Am and I’m not doing so here,
but on a strictly logical basis WDO is part of the 2025 Basket
because I think it’s an obvious takeover target and the current
window (BMO and PDAC) is one of the periods in which deals
get done and announced. Add in the buying interest and
volume seen on Friday (1.55m on the tSX is 5X recent days
18
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead) 9%
8%
7%
ikn 6%
gdx control
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
source: IKN calcs
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

and 3X average, it also did 250k shares in the US WDOFF ticker) is notable.
Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND) (SSL.to): A better week for SAND, up 2.5% on a down week for the
subsector and now almost 10% up for the year. The idea of putting SAND into the mix hasn’t panned out the
way I imagined so far, however, it’s one of the regrets of my bad picks for 2025. On reflection, we may see
SAND rally some because of improved top line revenues, but its real problem is still here:
SAND: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
19
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 52q4 62q1 62q2 62q3 62q4
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings
Its decision to take out heavy financial debt has weighed heavily on the stock price, as the interest on the
above alone has added up to over U$68m in 2023 and 2024 combined, that aside from the principle paybacks
you see above. Combine that with the lack of top line revenues in per share terms, despite gold’s improved
price…
SAND: AuEq sales per million shares outstanding
64.98 83.29 94.08 45.68 05.79
72.001
07.08 97.27 87.59 27.28 23.17 05.87 02.86 54.85 42.85 36.95
110
100
90
80
70
60
50 40
30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings, IKN calcs
…and you end up with a share price that was sat upon when the debt came on board and has stayed at
those prices.
The TinyCaps List
After 9 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 3.60% to level stakes:

company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 15.40 0.115 -32.4%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 24.00 0.17 -13.8%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 7.42 0.075 -46.2%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 23.56 0.135 -3.4%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 34.92 0.46 17.9%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 8.68 0.09 12.5%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 236.796 36.70 0.155 19.2%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 15.57 0.145 70.6%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 24.21 0.46 -16.4%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 118.384 15.98 0.135 -3.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 3.60%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies chosen under
the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the sub-sector of tinycap
exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the window a little and
allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right size, our task is
to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast majority of tinycap stocks are
broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but still I
preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer
reputations.
TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
5%
The TinyCaps List managed to move from negative to 4%
positive average last week, with five winners (BRO.v, CN.v, 3%
2%
ELY.v, MOG.v, STS.v), three losers (EDG.v, KDK.v, VAU.v)
1%
and two unchanged stocks (LMS.v, RDU.v). Of the ten 0%
stocks, nearly all the action and basket average movement -1%
-2%
is accounted by the big jumps seen in Condor (CN.v up
-3%
36.0%) and Barksdale (BRO.v up 21.1%), we have a couple
of words on those below.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): I was not surprised to read that
(8) “Kodiak Announces $5 Million Non-Brokered Private Placement”. The deal is split between Charity Flow
Thru and plain vanilla units, with the plain vanilla priced at 42c including a half warrant at 75c (the CFT 70c
with same half warrant). The CEO comment from Claudia Tornquist began with these words…
“We are seeing financing interest and have received a substantial lead order from a well-regarded
institutional investor as well as strong support from our existing shareholder base.”
…and there’s no surprises there, this company has plenty of A-lister backing and won’t have any problems in
filling the placement. KDK needed to bite the bullet and raise more capital at some point so it may as well be
sooner rather than later, with the company now focused on the
resource estimate slated for release mid-year.
Condor Resources (CN.v): Funny things happen in the days
before PDAC. An otherwise quiet week for CN changed Friday
when both price and traded volume shot higher, with no news
release out of the company to justify the move and a company
that’s often pumped by minority shareholder Crescat.
Barksdale Resources (BRO.v): Funny things happen in the
days before PDAC. An otherwise quiet week for CN changed Friday
20
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2raM
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

when both price and traded volume shot higher, with no news release out of the company to justify the move
and a company that’s often pumped by minority shareholder Crescat and if you’ve noticed a similarity to
something read very recently, it’s not a coincidence.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of
under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Four LatAm countries at PDAC
It probably goes without saying, but most LatAm countries with a mining presence will have at least a booth
at PDAC 2025 Toronto but, for our purposes, there are four interesting attendee nations so here goes with a
few lines on each:
Chile always send a large delegation, PDAC 2025 is no exception and this one will be led by Mining Minister
Aurora Williams. For the first time, is being organized by a committee made up of mining people and
government people. Presumably, Chile will want to underscore the way its public and private sectors work
together these days.
Peru is sponsoring its now regular Peru Day on Monday, always popular for the free pisco sours they hand
out. The team also gets to ring the opening bell on the TSX Monday, photo ops and all that. The delegation is
headed by FinMin en Peru José Salardi (a Standard technocrat)and Ming and Energy Minister Jorge Montero
(an idiot). Expect Montero to use carefully cosen words to leave the impresión that the highly contentious Tia
Maria copper project starts construction this year, when in fact all they have is “an intention to begin” that
won’t happen because community opposition to the mine is as strong as ever. Without the social license, Tia
Maria cannot happen (but they won’t tell you that).
Argentina at PDAC this year is bound to attract plenty of attention, with Argentina Day (Monday 3rd, same
day as “Peru Day” so don’t think these “Day” things are exclusive). The delegation will attract plenty of
attention too, as it’s headed up by the Argentina government’s General Secretary Karina Milei. And yes, you
do recognize that name as not only is she one of President Milei’s inner circle but she’s also his sister.
Expect plenty about RIGI, we may even get a deal or two announced as permitted. So often one of the
orphan countries at international mining events, there’s nothing that Argentines love more than being the
centre of attention and they’re going to get plenty of that at PDAC.
Mexico: Unlike the above nations, March 4th is the central date for all things Mexico as the country puts on
its Mining Forum (9) with a couple of dozen faces available for talks and one-to-ones, including plenty of
mining company executives with exposure to the country, Camimex chamber of commerce people and
diplomats such as Canada's Ambassador to Mexico. But the star turn is Lorenia Valles, the new Morena party
member of Senate representing the mining-centric Sonora State but more importantly, President of the
Senate Mining Commission. Everything she says about the relaxation of the de facto embargo on permitting
and on the 0% chance for open pit mining to be banned in the country will go down well with her audience.
Ecuador Presidential election update
The fight for the victory in second round run-off between Daniel Noboa and Luisa González is still in the
preparation stage, with the official campaign period designated for the three weeks beginning Monday March
21

24th, the day after the only scheduled TV debate between the candidates and from that point, it’s gloves off
until April 13th. Meanwhile, potential kingmaker Leonidas Iza made his position clearer on Thursday when,
just before sitting down for a closed-door strategy and policy meeting with fellow Pachakutik party members,
told reporters that he was leaning toward endorsing Luisa González in the run-off and in the process, left
observers in no doubt as to the importance of the anti-mining position for his backers. Here’s Colombia’s La
Republica on the presser (translated) (10):
A victory for the leader of the opposition Luisa González could give his movement “between six and twelve months of
oxygen (i.e. political room for improvement) to reinforce our campaign of social resistance”, Iza told reporters before his
indigenous Pachakutik party meeting.
“Also, a victory for President Daniel Noboa would boost development of the mining sector, something that indigenous
communities oppose”, said Iza.
While not a surprise, this isn’t good news for Daniel Noboa as any
pact with Luisa would also probably see Leonidas out campaigning
in the rural indigenous zones for his new quasi-ally and this run-off
is all about getting out the vote. It’s not good news for us on the
outside either, as if the endorsement solidifies and Luisa goes on
to win, she and her RC party (and Rafael Correa for that matter)
will be crystal clear about what they need to do in order to keep
the Pachakutic assembly (parliament) bloc of votes on their side.
Please note the graphic (right), last seen in IKN822, with the
CONAIE/Iza led Pachakutik holding nine seats and a de facto
casting vote for the next four years, whatever might happen in the
upcoming run-off
Market Watching
Equinox (EQX) buys Calibre (CXB.to)
We’ve predicted a pick-up in M&A action on a couple of occasions this year and pinpointed this current period
as one of the most fertile, so seeing the announcement last Sunday evening that Equinox Gold (EQX.to)
(EQX) is buying Calibre Mining (CXB.to) in a C$7bn-or so deal is big and serious enough to fit the bill. The
news is now a week old and I’m not going to bring much enlightenment to the table, so we limit to a couple
of personal opinions and are done.
First, a look at the performance of protagonist company EQX versus the GDX over the last 12months (below
left) shows a stock that’s been a stock “market perform”. Not a bad thing of course, but considering 2024
was supposed to be its transformation year with the arrival of Greenstone, as well as the strong rally in gold
that should have (in theory at least) benefited a company like EQX and its high cash cost profile, it’s a bit of a
disappointment.
Meanwhile, the same comparative pair over the last ten days shows the slight under-performance of EQX to
its peers from the announcement of the deal onward. Again, nothing particularly untoward here and it’s
common to see the buying company fall sharply against the market when an all-paper deal is announced, but
in this case the “no premium” price being paid by CXB was generally taken as EQX getting the better of this
22

deal so….again, not outstanding. This feeling of “meh” is also diametrically against my own verdict back in
May 2023 when buying EQX, the idea was to benefit from the Greenstone re-rate and the bullish outlook for
gold. I eventually made some money in the year holding the stock but I’m not into this sector for 20% gains
and again, the feeling of mediocre results compared to bright promise prevailed.
As for the deal, the rationale according to insiders from Ross Beaty down is scale. We know EQX has had its
eye set on becoming the next 1m+ oz gold producer for years and as long as both Greenstone and Valentine
deliver, new EQX will make it close to 1.4m oz in a fully functioning year. However, those million-plus ounces
also rely upon (count them up) eleven working mines, most of which are most definitely junior-scale
operations. The reason I returned to EQX and took new interest in the stock was Greenstone and its potential
to change the company in 2024 if delivered on time and budget. Neither of those happened, but the overrun
of approximately U$150m and two quarters isn't the worst and has been a glitch, rather than a block to
investment. We now have Valentine in the mix, with its build-out now coming to an end and first production
slated for 2q25 and commercial production presumed for 2026. Those two cover around half the production
footprint at New EQX, but alongside those are no fewer than nine small gold mines:
 Limon
 Libertad
 Pan
 Los Filos
 Mesquite
 Aurizona
 Fazenda
 RDM
 Castle Mountain
 Santa Luz
Those nine, plus the two new star assets in Canada
Quite the list. This is the proposal offered by New EQX
to the market: Yes, a genuine midcap producer with
over 1m oz gold, but one that needs eleven mines to get
there, an average of under 100k oz per mine per year,
with most of those running high cash cost and AISC that separate it from the established Tier 1 and 2
companies. It's difficult to imagine the market willing to offer EQX the same type of Price/NAV re-rate as the
peers in this table (above right), taken from the merger PDF deck (11)
Finally a personal opinion: These days, I only have two blanket no-go regions for mining investments in
LatAm, at least in the zones where mining is active and investment opportunities are available. They are the
State of Guerrero in Mexico and Nicaragua.
Regarding Guerrero, the red flag is for security reasons as the entire State is run by narcotraffickers and is an
accident waiting to happen for any mining company working there. It means I’ve missed out on trades such
as Heliostar and Torex in recent times, both big winners in share price terms, but the binary nature of the
things that can go wrong there mean that even if I owned them I’d never be comfortable holding shares,
always wondering if disaster were about to strike “under my watch”.
The other red flag region, Nicaragua, is for straight political reasons. Even though it would be down to only
10% or so of the total production mix of new-EQX, the exposure of New-EQX to Nicaragua now makes this
company an easy pass. The current mining mix is one aspect, the other is how CXB grew from zero from its
Nicaragua assets and along the way, managed to get very comfortable with the government of Daniel
Ortega. These days I try hard to be as agnostic about mining as possible and over the years, it has managed
to kick nearly all my ideology out of me, but there’s a limit to anyone and in my case, investment in
Nicaragua in the 2020s is exactly that. Even under Ortega it used to be a better place and I didn’t spend time
and effort visiting the country to check out mining projects for mere tourism, but the post-Covid era has seen
an authoritarian government move into outright dictatorship and what’s more, one of its chief sources of
funding, both official and unofficial, is its gold mining industry. Companies working there are clear-eyed about
their role as enablers of a government that tramples over human rights and while I’m not trying to make Nica
out as the only offender in the world (you can “waddabout?” me as much as you like), it is 1) one of the very
23

worst in Latin America/Caribbean (behind only Cuba) and 2) it remains in power thanks in part to the
revenues it generates from gold mining. I cannot sponsor a company that has become what it has become
from such a regime and as such, this is the last note I will write on Equinox Gold.
An extra thought on Vizsla Silver (VZLA) (VZLA.v)
I didn’t mention this angle in last week’s note “Thoughts on Vizsla Silver (VZLA) (VZLA.v) and memories of
SilverCrest”, but the way the stock has traded in the six trading days since the company filed its updated
technical report on Panuco is worth an extra line or two:
That’s a market that’s come to the same conclusion as this desk. With most of VZLA’s market cap in equity
(or good will, if you prefer) rather than hard asset value, there’s no reason for potential buyers of this
company to wade in now and put their own execution capital at risk. Instead, they’re going to let VZLA raise
its own capex and build its own mine, a la SilverCrest Las Chispas. We reiterate our conclusion from IKN823
last weekend, VZLA is one to watch at the moment, not to buy.
Conclusion
We close IKN824 with bullet points:
 Looking forward to a plethora of mergers and deals announced at PDAC this week, but only because
I’m the eternal optimist. We’re more likely to get decent drill assay NRs interspersing a lot of “Hello
We’re Here” missives. But it’s okay, juniors gotta junior.
 Way too much gnashing of teeth and pearl-clutching around gold last week. There’s never been a
bull market for gold that goes up non-stop, gold takes.
 I didn’t expect to spend as much time as I did on Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) this week, but after
listening in on the Conference Call, suffering through some tedious questioners in the Q&A and then
reading between the lines of what was said by CEO Davidson and her team, it finally dawned on me.
There’s a good reason ARG is pitching its 2025 guidance the way it is and once the improved balance
sheet situation is taken into account, it’s obvious how excess revenues become performance
dividends. The company has seen moments when the copper price suddenly fell and stopped thos
bonuses from flowing, but this time really does look different and anyone as bullish copper as this
desk should seriously consider owning ARG before the big divi payouts begin. You’ll get strong share
price upside and hard cash in your portfolio account if you do.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos
(MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
24

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-2-2025.html
(2) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-announces-graduation-to-the-toronto-stock-exchange
(3) https://www.provenancegold.com/20250228-provenance-gold-intersects-0.8-gt-gold-over-154.23m-from-surface-including-3.02-gt-
gold-over-13.72m
(4) https://aftermathsilver.com/news-releases/aftermath-silver-reports-156m-from-surface-of-290g-t-ag-1.12-cu-and-7.3-mn-in-eastern-
zone-step-out/
(5) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/trumps-copper-tariff-investigation-triggers-global-market-response
(6) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/us-copper-futures-rise-as-tariff-worries-mount/
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-slips-to-lowest-in-over-two-weeks-on-trade-war-fears/
(8) https://kodiakcoppercorp.com/kodiak-announces-5-million-non-brokered-private-placement/
(9) https://mexicobusiness.events/mining/2025/03
(10) https://www.larepublica.co/globoeconomia/lider-indigena-de-ecuador-apoyara-a-luisa-gonzalez-en-segunda-vuelta-presidencial-
4074684
(11) https://s204.q4cdn.com/793454556/files/Equinox-and-Calibre-Merger-presentation-deck.pdf
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
25

Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
26

Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
27

Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now available on
request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all material within should
not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business purposes. Independent due diligence and
discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be
construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with
respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in
this report are subject to change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the
express permission of the author.
28