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The IKN Weekly
Week 822, February 23rd 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Gold supply and demand gets political, M&A
Season is upon us.
Fundamental Analysis: Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) and its 4q24: Making a stand.
Stocks to Follow: Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to), Surge Copper (SURG.v), AbraSilver Resource
Corp (ABRA.v), Salazar Resources (SRL.v), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Ero Copper (ERO)
(ERO.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Hercules Metals (BIG.v), Pampa Metals (PM.cse).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Barrick (GOLD), New Gold (NGD).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Electrum Discovery (ELY.v), Mogotes Metals (MOG.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina mailbag, Ecuador Presidential election update.
Market Watching: Lumina Gold (LUM.v): Adding to the Watch List, Thoughts on Vizsla Silver
(VZLA) (VZLA.v) and memories of SilverCrest.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
One trade planned, two stocks to note here at the top of the shop:
 I am adding to my position in Eldorado Gold (EGO) this coming week and will average
down on the current holding. That’s today’s main fundies note
 I am adding Lumina Gold (LUM.v) to the Watch List as from next week. That’s in
Market Watching.
In Today’s Edition
 Another week in which The IKN Weekly arrives a day late. Please accept my apologies
and please expect it at the normal time on Sunday this weekend.
 Two weeks ago I was debating between holding and selling my losing trade to date,
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) but after watching what it’s done since then and
witnessing its good Q4 numbers get sold down by the market on Friday, enough is
enough. There’s no point selling a loser if it’s set to become a winner so the decision is
neither sell nor hold, I’m going to add more. This is way too cheap.
 Today’s intro chews over the gold market, in light of the latest round (or rounds) of
hardcore goldbug stupidities. You don’t have to believe the rot and nonsense about gold
to be bullish on the metal’s prospects.
 I was suitably impressed by the updated PEA from Vizsla Silver (VZLA) (VZLA.v) last
week, a document that got somewhat lost under the pile of quarterly reports filed by the
big producers. It’s a project to take into consideration going forward and it offers
sparkling economics, but I’m not a buyer for the time being. Market Watching explains.
1

 I’m not quite ready to call BS on Hercules Metals (BIG.v), but the disconnect between
the way the stock trades and the results it shows from the field is becoming wider.
Copper Basket notes for that.
 As for that blowout Newmont (NEM) earnings quarter, we check a couple of the tracking
parameters for the company (it’s too big to get a full treatment on these pages) then
spend some time on why the big earnings and negative stock reaction isn’t a great
surprise and why cash earned is more important to us junior players than the share price
fluctuations.
Gold supply and demand gets political
Last week we began with some thoughts on silver, this week it’s some scratchings on gold and
the obvious talking point in the physical market revolves around The London Bullion Market
Association (LBMA). With demand hitting record highs, gold facts and gold rumours have
melded into one large lump of a talking point, so let’s take a step back and survey the scene.
First a quick reminder of the baseline demand, via this news headline (1)
Gold demand surged to a record high in 2024, driven by buying from
central banks and individual investors.
Data from the World Gold Council's (WGC) latest report on gold demand shows that in 2024, total
annual demand for gold, including over-the-counter transactions, reached a record-breaking 4,974
metric tons (MT). Annual demand was up by 1 percent year-on-year from 2023's 4,945.9 MT.
For those suitably interested, you can read that WGC report here (2) and if you do, you’ll notice
the quaint British habit of using ‘Hoover’ as a verb (Google is the latest in a long line). Anyway,
that 4,974mt of demand is 159.92m oz in old money and, as production came to 106.1m oz last
year…
World gold production per year
2
4.97 2.67 6.57 3.37 1.97 3.28 5.58 5.68 0.09 1.69 7.99 0.001 8.301 1.601 1.601 4.79 3.99 4.89 5.401 1.601
120
110
100
90
80
70
60 50 40
30
20
10
0
5002 6002 7002 8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202
Moz Au
source: World Gold Council, Statista, SPGlobal
…the difference has to come from somewhere. However, you’ll also note that world production
never keeps up with demand and to put it mildly, not every year sees gold rising the way it has
recently. So what’s happening?
In one word, tariffs. In a few words, the Trump Tariffs (or tariff threats, nobody seems to
know) high on the agenda of the financial world and coupled with the backdrop of geopolitical
uncertainty, it’s not only world demand for gold that’s taken off but demand for gold in the
world’s richest country. Or as Philip Smith, Group Chief Executive of StoneX, put it in this recent
interview (3):
“What you’re now seeing is an actual disconnect between New York…futures contracts,
and London…OTC physical market,” Smith explained. He believes that the major
disconnect in pricing between New York and London—ranging from $25 to $30 an
ounce, compared to the December high of $60—has been affecting the market’s overall
efficiency. This divergence is fueled by a lack of clarity from the new administration, with
concerns mounting over whether tariffs on various products could be introduced at rates
of 10%, 20%, or even 25%.
Smith also noted a substantial increase of physical gold moving into the United States in the
past two months.

“What we’ve seen in the past 7, 8 weeks in the market was probably one of the largest
physical movements of gold from all over the world into the US. We estimate over 2,000
tons.”
In other words, what we’re seeing isn’t a marked uptick in gold demand, instead it’s a marked
uptick to get physical gold into one specific global location. In 2025 the mining world will add
another 105m oz or so of gold this year, demand will come in at 160m oz or so (perhaps more,
but not drastically greater) but when other years see movement from and to all spots on the
globe, this year has started with all roads leading to the Comex vaults. According to the latest
figures, Comex USA has taken delivery of 633mt of gold in the last two months, ETFs have
added to stocks and those two don’t even take into account the bars and bullion private banks
might have squirreled away in their own vaults. As such, Smith’s 2,000mt isn’t as far-fetched as
it might seem at first sight. However, with the gold market being the way it is, hard facts are
immediately followed by wild conjecture and it’s at this point we move into the world of fantasy
that’s been welded onto the reality of US gold demand. Yes, the Trump admin has set off this
semi-frenzy and yes, they’re doing everything they can to stir the pot, most recently with the
“Is the gold in Fort Knox?” stupidities*. We don’t need to delve into the psychology or motives
of Trump’s strategies (“flood the zone”, I believe it’s called these days), we’re about the mining
world and the gold market here and our focus is tight. Our interest is to separate the wheat
from the chaff, understand what is driving the gold market and what it might do next and on
that, one of the things it will most definitely NOT do is collapse into a dystopian mess.
Alongside the “Gold in Fort Knox?” stupidities, I’m sure you’ve also read the “London Running
Out Of Gold!” hyperbole screamed by the usual suspects. These people are well-versed in
taking snippets and carefully cherry-picked datapoints, then extrapolating them into wild
suppositions and theories that suit their long-established
agendas (that tend to revolve around the collapse of
entire world systems…that and stacking coins). The
strong demand for physical gold deliveries to The USA
has prompted these fools to promote the idea that the
London gold market, centered round the London Bullion
Market Association (LBMA), has no gold left to offer US
physical buyers. Now for sure demand has been
abnormal in recent weeks, no denying that and one of
the repercussions has been the rocketing of gold lease
rates in 2025 to date. As seen on this chart (from World
Gold Council (WGC) source here (4)), lease rates for one
month delivery touched as high as 5%. The LBMA noted
as much in its latest monthly report (8) (8).
The monthly decline in gold stocks reflects the well-documented market dynamics at present.
Given the flow of metal from London to New York, a 151 tonne decline in stocks in January is
unsurprising. Indeed, the pace of the outflow reflects the market functionality, albeit with delays.
Those delays are one of the details pounced upon by the marketers of hype, as they try to
paint a picture of dirty, conniving banksters scurrying around trying to secure physical supply in
order to satisfy overwhelming demand (as the world’s financial system teeters on the brink of
etc etc). In fact it’s normal and part of the dynamic of the lease rate hike. The amount of gold
held by London LBMA is vastly greater than the amount available for on-demand delivery and,
when that supply gets low, the system works by asking long-term holders of all sizes, large and
small, to lease it for a while. The rates spike is exactly what you’d expect when there’s a
sudden shortage but, as you’ve probably already noticed, lease rates have not consolidated at
highs and instead, have dropped back in the last few days. That’s a market saying “Ok, rush is
over, back to normal”. The same LMBA monthly report goes on to state the following:
London gold stocks hovered around 8,540 tonnes to 8,775 tonnes in 2024; end-of-January vault
numbers at 8,535 tonnes are close to these recent levels.
Despite the outflow, the data shows that the London market is robust. The average daily OTC
volume in January was US$127.85bn. In addition, primary mine supply continues to contribute ~
305 tonnes of new metal monthly, further supporting broader market liquidity.
3

And even addressed the reasons behind the recent spike:
The gold market has many unique nuances, and temporary physical demand/supply bottlenecks
and imbalances aren’t new. Premiums (or discounts) can occur when a market doesn’t have the
right form of metal in the right location at the right time. Granted, this is unusual for the NY market
where gold future contracts typically roll or are cash settled.
Context is required at all times, that’s something you do not get from the sophists promoting
their doom scenarios. In order to labout the point, here’s a chart showing total LBMA gold vault
stocks and, over there on the right, a final theoretical bar for February 2025 that assumes
2,000 metric tonnes of gold has left its vaults this very month (as the worst of the online BS
artists have been screaming in true telephone game style):
LBMA: Gold held in London vaults, 2017 to date
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
4
71naj ram yam luj pes von 81naj ram yam luj pes von 91naj ram yam luj pes von 02naj ram yam luj pes von 12naj ram yam luj pes von 22naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 42naj ram yam luj pes von 52naj
Mozt
source: LBMA data
Facts tend to be boring, certainly less sexy than conjecture about collapsing systems. Even if
there has been an acceleration of gold shipments from London to New York this month to
outstrip January movements by 12X, there’s still way more gold held by LBMA than that. It’s
also worth mentioning that the above isn’t “all the gold in London/The UK/whatever”, but only
the gold held inside the London clearing system. It doesn’t include gold held physically outside
the London area (the city’s M25 ring road is the geographical limit), it doesn’t include privately
held gold, it doesn’t include the bling you see on people in the street or at Covent Garden
Opera House. So be clear, LONDON IS NOT RUNNING OUT OF GOLD, it’s not even close and
once that’s clear in your head, you’ll also be able to eschew any thoughts of the crazy price
targets purported by the hype-mongers.
However, the above contains more than enough information to remain constructively bullish on
the price of gold. It should be enough for the level-headed investor to understand that demand
for gold has increased and remains high. It’s also good to see gold regain its place at the table
when financial alternatives are being debated and discussed by the serious people. Finally,
Trump’s involvement means gold is now part of the general news cycle and that’s something
we should all be happy about. Barbarous relic no more, you don’t have to believe the hyperbolic
sophistry to be constructive about the long-term future of the gold price. Much the same as
silver, in fact.
*Answer: Yes it is. And don’t believe a word of the “Not audited for 50 years” malarkey doing the rounds now, it was
physically audited by third parties in 2008 and a paper audit is run every year. The level of market stupidity around the
Fort Knox gold has gone off-scale.
M&A Season is upon us
A brief reminder. The intro note Deja vu all over again from IKN820, dated February 2nd ,
outlined the reasons why mining companies would be in a wider spotlight and the uptick in M&A
potential. Here’s the list of bullet points that appeared in the IKN820 note:
 Majors and Tier 2 are about to report their Q4 financials, with high season the second and
third week of February
 With gold prices high and climbing, most of these companies are building significant cash
war chests. Publication will start the inevitable speculation on what they will do with the
money
 Right on the heels is the BMO conference in Florida, ground zero for deal-making in our
sector

 Then comes PDAC, another standard moment to announce buyouts (particularly in good
times for metals prices)
 Then comes the site visit window
 And before you know it, the same companies are announcing 1q25 production totals.
IKN823 back and we’re now into chronology, with majors reporting big earnings (e.g. NEM and
its one point six billion dollars (!!) of free cash flow in Q4), war chests filling and as from today
Feb 23rd to Wednesday 26th it’s the BMO gig, or more officially the “34th Annual Global Metals,
Mining & Critical Minerals Conference” (5). That link also has a list of companies presenting, a
veritable who’s who of the mining sector. And believe it or not, we’re now just one week away
from the big Toronto bunfest, PDAC falling slightly early this year. If 2025 sees accelerated
M&A action in our sector, we should get hard evidence for it in the next few days.
[EDIT Monday, case in point the $7.7Bn fusion of Equinox Gold and Calibre Mining
announced Sunday evening. No matter how bad the deal, it’s M&A all right. Expect
more]
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) and its 4q24: Making a stand
[EDIT Monday evening: EGO rallied by 5.2% in today’s trading to close at U$14.11, which
means I don’t get the best available price. But that’s okay, because 1) I wasn’t planning to buy
today anyway and 2) anything under U$15 is, in my opinion, cheap for an addition]
Our under-performing pick in the larger PM producers’ sector, Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to),
was one of the many that filed 4q24 and year-
end financials last week and for the third time in
2025, the market gave the thumbs-down to
news from this company (chart right). It’s not
difficult to spot the reporting date in the above
chart comparing EGO to the GDX benchmark,
it’s also arguably unlucky to have picked a down
day for the sector to report and give sellers
another reason to dump, but the
underperformance to peers is obvious. It also
felt rather unfair to this desk. As seen in this
chart, EGO has now been whacked three times
on negative news, the first time on January 14th
when EGO put a damper on what was other
wise a decent Q4 production NR by announcing a likely capex overrun at its major Skouries
growth project. That capex hike was confirmed two weeks ago and coincided with the second
big drop seen on this comparative price chart:
5

We covered that news in the “Market Watching” section of IKN821 dated February 9th in
“Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): A hold/sell call”, a straightforward title that explains how I felt
at the time. Along with the news about the capex hike as seen in this table from the NR…
…EGO announced its 2025 guidance at between 460k and 500k oz Au, lower than our
estimated non-Skouries 2025 of 515k oz and that combo saw the second waterfall price drop.
Here’s how the updated guidance sat against the previous numbers and while the median of
485,000 oz for 2025 is lower than our previous house guesstimate of 515k oz, on closer
inspection there isn’t that much to worry about on a long-term timeline:
EGO:Annual production and updated three-year guidance
6
119574 519354 461584 392025 000584
000536 000096
Oz Au
800000
700000 old guidance
new guidance
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e
source: company filings
Here’s the closer inspection:
EGO: Annual gold production and median three year guidance
Oz Au
Skouries
750000
Olympias
700000
650000 Efemcukuru
600000 Lamaque 180000
550000 Kisladag 145000
3 4 4 5 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 5 2 6 7 3 0 9 7 5 8 6 7 3 6 3 8 3 5 6 8 8 6 1 0 5 8 7 8 6 8 9 0 5 1 3 4 2 3 6 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
300000
250000 153201 174097 176069 196538 175000 185000 180000
200000
150000
1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 174364 135800 154850 174080 170000 140000 170000
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e
source: company filings
The change to 2025 guidance is mostly about the delay at Skouries, with a chaser of a soft year
from the polymetallic Olympias due to a combo of the knock-on effects of the late 2024 strike
(pay and conditions, no resolved) and mine sequencing (can’t do anything about that). The
effect of seeing 2025 expected lower than 2024 isn’t a great optic and probably added to the
negativity that day, but as per the current guidance things get back to normal in 2026 and
beyond.
As such, the news of 1) the Skouries capex hike and 2) the slightly reduced guidance seemed
to be baked into the EGO share price coming into last Thursday evening and its Q4 financials.
But the chart above shows how EGO went through a third sharp drop, so Friday’s bad day
should in theory be about something bad in the Q4 numbers, so here’s what we saw:

EGO: revenues per qtr
We were expecting both those line items in Q4, with higher costs flagged and a strong
revenues number. Once the $73m and change of
DD&A is backed out, mine operating earnings were
a strong U$190.12m and operating earnings
U$168.88m (right). There is absolutely nothing
wrong with anything there and to show why, here’s
something I usually keep back office. This may not read very well as it’s normally only for my own
reference (in fact I’ve spruced this up a bit to make
it easier to scan), but if you care enough it should
be reasonable easy. This table has five columns with
1) the line item 2) the house estimate going into the
quarter and then 3) the result as per the financial
filing. The next column “diff” is the most important,
it shows the difference between my guesses going into the quarter and the reality as per the
filings. Finally, a column that shows the percentage difference between my forecast and the
result. Notes below:
item Q4 est Q4 actual diff diff %
current assets
total current 1220 1482.1 -262.1 -21.5
fixed assets
property/plant/equip 4370 4118.8 251.2 5.7
total fixed assets 4680 4353.5 326.5 7.0
total assets
total assets 5900 5835.6 64.4 1.1
liabilities
current liab 350 412.2 -62.2 -17.8
LT debt 900 915.4 -15.4 -1.7
Other LT liab 600 619.5 -19.5 -3.3
Total liab 1850 1947.1 -97.1 -5.2
liquidity
cash&eq 710 856.8 -146.8 -20.7
Working cap 870 1070 -200 -23.0
P+L
revenues 420 435.7 -15.7 -3.7
production costs 160 172.1 -12.1 -7.6
gross margin 260 263.6 -3.6 -1.4
DD&A 68 73.5 -5.5 -8.1
mine op earnings 192 190.1 1.9 1.0
op. earnings 165 168.9 -3.9 -2.4
EBIT 145 176.9 -31.9 -22.0
EBITDA 213 250.3 -37.3 -17.5
tax 20 68.8 -48.8 -244.0
net earn cont.ops 125 108.1 16.9 13.5
net earnings period 120 106.7 13.3 11.1
7
25.872 26.422 22.332 44.832 36.442 76.491 54.312 7.712 71.642 53.922 68.922 62.542 40.403 79.752 41.792 67.133
27.534
500
450
400
350
300
250
200 150
100
50
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
EGO: production costs per qtr
69.611 65.801 8.211 81.011 12.811 65.401 23.901 94.321 22.221 39.901 711 39.511 90.631 10.321 18.721 32.141
21.271
200
180
160
140
120
100
80 60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
EGO: Mine Op Earnings and Op Earnings, per qtr
357.75
753.23
377.84 470.93 343.66 268.24
895.59
417.56
284.08
690.06
98.901
454.09
84.621
169.99
21.091
88.861
U$m
200
180 mine op earnings op. earnings
160
140
120 100
80
60
40
20
0
1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24
source: company filings

 To begin, we assumed current assets (first line) would come in at U$1.22Bn and in fact, the
number was U$1.4821Bn, a difference of U$262.1m (a 21.5% difference). That’s a big
difference, but it makes sense when we recall that EGO had reported slow than expected
capital deployment at Skouries. Sure enough, when we check “property/plant/equipment” in
fixed assets the difference is U$251.2m lighter than our estimate. Therefore, when the do the
math and check “total assets” the difference is small, we overestimated by just 1.1%.
 Regarding liabilities, we missed by a little more with total liabilities underestimated by $97m.
That’s mostly currents and while a miss in my model, it’s not one I beat myself up about as
it’s very tough to second-guess a growth play while it’s in the middle of a large capex build-
out.
 As for the P+L, our U$420m revenues estimate is my idea of “right on the button”, as I tend
to pitch a little low to stay on the conservative side and build in some cushion. That pays as
our production costs estimate was a little light and once the other minor items are done, our
mine operating earnings estimate was just 1.0% from reality. I’m happy with that and the
main reason EGO’s Q4 is the epitome of “in line”. The final line items were skewed by higher
tax payments than anticipated but that’s not a sweat, what matters at a miner is operations
and our model held up well.
A recap of balance sheet evolution in our basic charts with the pattern as expected, this
company is expanding and these charts show exactly that:
Inside and derived from the above, here’s the combo chart of cash and working capital:
EGO: Treasury and working cap
8
86.434 43.394 69.963 90.064 63.603 91.114 47.413 25.124 82.262 51.514 85.654 10.495 26.674 78.736 74.045 91.656 57.415 93.946 50.595 29.327 95.676
37.038 8.658
0701
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400 300
200
100
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
EGO: Assets breakdown, per qtr
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
U$m
cash&eq
working cap
source: company filings
And at this point, we remind reader EGO has U$705m to cover in 2025 in order to finish the
Skouries build-out. A working miner with multiple operations and a pipeline of early-stage
assets needs liquidity to maintain normal operations, above and beyond needs for its cash-
guzzling build-out. However, when even the cash/treasury covers the capex and working cap
adds another $200m if required (let alone the projected profits from four quarters of gold in
2025), it’s easy to take EGO at its word when it says it won’t to go back the capital markets
swamp in order to cover the extra capex for Skouries.
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m EGO: Liabilities breakdown, per qtr
2200
cash&eq inventory
other current property/plant/equip 2000
other fixed 1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
source: company filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
current liab LT debt Other LT liab
source: company filings

Discussion and conclusion
Two tracking charts to underscore the
value on offer here, along with some 1.20 EGO: mine op earnings and op earnings per share
wrap-up words. This chart of earnings per 0.93
1.00
share shows how well EGO is doing under
0.80 0.62
the new gold price environment, so with 0.54 0.82
the average received price of U$2,625/oz 0.60 0.47 0.39
0.31 0.31 0.33
i U n $ 4 2 q ,9 2 0 4 0 / a o n z d , i t t h ’s e n c o u t r r d e i n ff t ic g u o lt l d to p s r e ic e e a o n f o o th v e e r r 0.40 0.21 0.26 0.15 0.24 0.44 0.49
0.20 0.32 0.29
1 1 2 q c 2 5 t . o H 1 o 5 w c e v a e d r d a e n d d to m o th re e im 4q p 2 o 4 r ta r n es tl u y l , t s t h i i n s 0.00 0.18 0.11 0.18 0.19 0.21
0.02
chart tracking the Price/Book Ratio of EGO -0.20 -0.08
rams home just how little love the
company is getting from the market,
despite rolling in profits and building growth into 2026 and beyond. This weekend the ratio
stands at just 0.71X and this desk maintains that EGO does not deserve to be priced this low on
an asset basis, in fact I’m banging on the
table about it because it’s crazy. Agreed it
has taken on debt to finance its Skouries
project but the load is not onerous and
the balance sheet is in robust shape, with
all the cash (and more) required to finish
the build, even though its timeline and
cost have moved up. Thing is, even if you
took a negative view those had already
been baked in the stock price when
announced earlier in the year (not one,
but twice) and there’s no real reason for
EGO to have taken a third whacking the
way it did on Friday. The production and operating quarter was good, the company is benefiting
from the record gold prices in the way it should and guidance for 2025 makes it cleat than
catastrophes aside, it will remain strongly profitable. Then there’s the recent reserve life
expansion at Lamaque. We can even mention political risk, as the key weak point in this story in
the 2010’s, Greece, is not longer a policy threat to mining companies. Long story short, this is
not the same company that saw its asset value marked under book a few years ago but to
date, it hasn’t received the recognition due to it.
As such, our simple yet attainable first price target goal for EGO is U$18.90/share in 2025,
which represents a 1.0X price/book ratio at current valuations. For what it’s worth I think EGO
is worth more than that, but straightforward, logical and attainable goals are the way forward
and after Friday’s negative action, it represents upside of over 40% to this weekend’s price
[EDIT: 33.9% to Monday evening]. More than enough to represent an attractive trade in a
healthy and profitable gold mining company in what’s set to be a bonanza year for producers.
Back in IKN821 I felt in a dilemma and anticipated making “A hold/sell call” on EGO, but instead
of impaling myself on one of those horns the decision is to go a third way, to jump through the
horns and take a different route. With some cash left in the portfolio and prices for EGO that
have been discounted to ridiculous levels, the math here is compelling so, instead of tossing
cash at a new and risky junior or exploreco I plan to add to my position in EGO, reduce my cost
average on the trade and hunker down in 2025. It’s been frustrating to stare at obvious value
in the EGO model and then watch as the market tries to tell me I’m wrong, but last week was
the last straw. EGO is compelling cheap and, capex hike at Skouries aside, is delivering on all
fronts. With Skouries covered and the new plan acceptable considering all factors, selling would
be a serious error and therefore, the way forward is to buy at any price under U$15. I’m adding
this week because the math is clear and it’s time to make a stand. The market is wrong about
Eldorado Gold (EGO) and I will profit from that mis-read.
9
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
mine op earn/share
op earn/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests
EGO: Price/Book ratio 2021 to date 1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 won
source: NYSE, EGO data, IKN calcs

Stocks to Follow
The count was not in our favour, with just three winners (RIO.v, SURG.v, GOLD) on the week,
but it wasn’t that bad for the personal back pocket for three reasons. Firstly, one of the winners
was Top Pick Rio2, secondly there were no fewer than five unchanged stocks (MAI.v, PGZ.v,
OCI.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v) to help lessen the blow which included the other Top Pick stockn
inera Alamos, and thirdly the losers were generally small moves so even though there were
eleven of them, I’m only going to mention the sole big loser Ero Copper (ERO.to down 11.3%).
Okay, and Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v down 20.0%) but that’s on the Watch List, so happy to see
that drop.
In housekeeping news, as per the notice last weekend the Recommended Stocks list has
returned to its normal format. I’ve also re-jigged the list and the stocks are now in order of
preference and/or position size. As for a few margin notes (if you care enough, my holding in
Eldorado Gold (EGO) is currently smaller than that of Amerigo and Marimaca, but it will be
bigger this time next weekend if all goes to plan so it stays where it is. Also Salazar this
weekend is fractionally larger than Aftermath, but as there’s very little in its (less than $100)
and I have Aftermath as a Strong Buy, it gets its nose in front. That’s about all, except to say I
have most of my junior money in the top five stocks (MAI, RIO, EGO, MARI, ABRA) these days.
Anyway, to round off the blurb in normal style, with the sale of Barrick we’re down to 18 open
positions on the Stock to Follow list, two fewer than the self-imposed max. Nine stocks are in
the green, one is unchanged, eight are in the red and all its would take is one good week for
copper and a new accumulator of the best Chilean gold opportunity of the last ten years to get
that down to four.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.34 61.9% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.78 -2.5% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO ADDING U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$13.41 -19.0% Adding, too cheap to ignore
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.77 14.9% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.53 81.3% Quality Cu developer
AbraSilver ABRA.v STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$3.07 12.5% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Aftermath Silver AAG.v STR BUY $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.50 17.6% New silver trade going well
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.09 12.5% Ecuador elex/buyout trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.125 13.6% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Surge Copper SURG.v SPEC BUY $0.105 22-Dec-24 C$0.10 -4.8% bulk copper in good address
Ero Copper ERO STR BUY C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$18.18 -6.1% near/medium term Cu fliptrade
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.14 -26.3% Cu jr, some recovery recently
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.185 -38.3% Silver spec, done nothing
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.04 100.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.225 164.7% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.13 -71.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
10

Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'25 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
Barrick Gold GOLD Feb'25 U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$18.26 16.3% taking profit on NT trade
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies.
Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to): SOLD. If I’d held out a day or two more I would have got a
better exit price, but as it turns out my U$18.24 was only 6c worse than the Friday close. It was
also better than last weekend’s close at which point I decided to sell, so I kind of feel that the
market paid my commish. Nothing more to say here aside “nice trade, wish they were all this
easy” and point you back to the Producer Basket section for continued coverage of GOLD.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): ADDED. Also as flagged last week, with the application of a little
patience it was easy to add SURG at 10c last week. The cost average comes down half a penny,
we’re still in the red but that’s okay, as pointed out
last week now is the time to position in this while
nobody is watching. With conference season upon us
and then the BC thaw, newsflow will begin soon.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): The more I
watch the ABRA tape, the more I like the way it trades
and while it doesn’t necessarily show in its price
moves, there’s a “feel” to the way it’s now at the
forefront of silver stock moves that’s great to see.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): No news from the
company and very quiet trading in the stock, but one
angle of interest came from its majority partner at El
Domo/Curipamba, Silvercorp (SVM). The operator reported its YE financials last week and
regarding El Domo/Curipamba, SVM said that it was on track for first production in the second
half of 2026, as well as hinting that it may be able to reduce initial capex estimates due to
recently identified cost savings initiatives (which doesn’t matter much to our bet, as SRL is on a
free carry to production). All good, but then SVM CEO Loni Shaver was asked whether Salazar
“was committed” to its 15% stake. CEO Shaver
understood the loaded nature of the question SRL.v: Shares outstanding
300
and replied with a bland “we have a good
250
working relationship with Salazar” but it’s clear
the remnant ownership is on the mind of both 200
company and SVM analysts.
150
100
And that’s why I’m long here, aside the boost
we expect in all Ecuador stocks with a Noboa 50
run-off win. SRL has the backstop of serious
0
asset value in its 15% and though it doesn’t get
much of the early cash flow, its asset value is
obvious. We’re betting that SVM moves to wrap
up 100% of its project before it’s fully valued by
the market and at its current U$15.5m market cap equivalent, even if we ignore EV and price
everything else it owns at zero (i.e. its book of projects and its C$2.5m cash) it values El
Domo/Curipamba at U$100m. In other words, SVM could pay double the current market cap for
just its 15% and it would be accretive for the buyer.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): A curate’s egg of drill results NR from RPX on Wednesday
(6), which announced assays for three holes in its current campaign that were all aimed at the
deep mineralization the team is targeting under the known Surluga deposit. All three holes hit
11
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings, IKN ests

their targets and the results were very much as expected in this system, being thinnish shear
zones that accumulate to become mineable resource zones, but the raw numbers…
…are not of the type to impress a market that tends to say to itself “skinny and deep, why
should I care?” and move on. I’ve put a ring around the most relevant results, including the
best deep it from hole 532 showing the strength of this system. The market shrug is fair
enough and while I agree RPX needs a new and exciting thick hit of high grade to wake the
market up to its potential, these results were bang in-line with company expectations and
confirmed the house theory of more mineralization at depth. With RPX now mulling over an
open pit operation with attached UG ops, this deeper stuff becomes more accessible in a long-
term mining plan and RPX can add tonnage to its current resource. The stock sold off slightly
on the news before some small-ish buyer showed up to finish the week a penny down. Also
understandable under the circumstances.
Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to): For no apparent reason, ERO got whacked harder than the
average during the Friday sell-off and all the gains of the past few days evaporated into thin air.
We still have two Fridays to wait for its YE financials, copper was down a bit without being in
any great problems, but ERO bore the brunt of selling in both USA and Canada on elevated
volumes.
It’s a real rodeo ride in 2025 to date, which is okay for a while but last week was a little
irritating, as is seeing my position back in the red. Okay for you guys who can buy some more
of this deeply discounted stock, but my position is full (and I’m greedy…nah, not really*). This
YTD chart shows the bucking bronco and the main peak/trough moves in 2025 so if copper
doesn’t collapse on us completely in the next few days (highly doubt it), there may well be a
long fliptrade available.
*Yes I am.
The Copper Basket
After eight weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 3.00% to level stakes:
12

Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 585.37 2.13 49.0%
2 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 357.20 2.22 34.5%
3 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 345.13 0.115 -11.5%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 339.83 2.00 5.3%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 148.409 281.98 1.90 29.3%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 255.55 2.05 0.0%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 156.06 0.76 2.7%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 149.50 0.59 7.3%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 105.99 0.70 4.5%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 75.35 0.45 -34.8%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 58.72 0.49 -22.2%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 28.38 0.11 0.0%
13 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 21.75 0.62 3.3%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 13.98 0.245 -22.2%
15 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 83.164 13.31 0.16 0.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 3.00%
The Copper Basket had a negative week, down 2.55% on the back of which losers (ATX.v,
SOLG.to, ALDE.v, REG.v, ASCU.to, AE.v, XXIX.v, PM.cse), a list that included big drops in
Pampa Metals (PM.cse down 15.8%), XXIX Metal
Corp (XXIX.v down 12.0%) and Aldebaran The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
8.0%
(ALDE.v down 9.9%). One stock was unchanged
7.0%
on the week (KBX.cse) and that means six
6.0%
winners (TMQ.to, FDY.to, BIG.v, HCH.v, ECU.v,
5.0%
LBC.v) and despite there being a couple of big
4.0%
percentage movers among those in the shape of 3.0%
Trilogy (TMQ.to up 16.8%) and Hercules (BIG.v 2.0%
up 11.3%), it wasn’t enough to turn the tide. 1.0%
0.0%
source: IKN calcs
The share price action was a fair reflection of the -1.0%
wider market and copper-the-metal didn’t help, Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th 16th 23rd
though its quiet week wasn’t the main factor in
the selling we saw in explorecos. The U$4.70/lb in the March futures contract of last weekend
didn’t last for more than an hour once overnight trading began but, once that was out of its
system, copper spent all week in a tight trading range.
Every week, this desk tries to alliterate you to death. It also ceaselessly catches carefully
curated copper comments for readers in an attempt to take the pulse of the copper week that
has been. This weekend doesn’t bring much enlightenment due to the quiet trading and all the
metals excitement mostly happening in other places, but I’ve chosen the copper comment from
13

SaxoBank’s regular weekend “Commodities Weekly” wrap up report (7) because it touches on a
couple of matters:
Firstly, yes indeed it’s still all-the-tariffs-all-the-time and in much the same way as we’ve seen in
the gold space (see today’s intro), the physical market seems to have pre-empted issues by
bringing forward deliveries into the USA. The market is now anticipating a softer period for
demand, that may show in Comex warehouse stocks draw downs and even in spot prices, but
the latter is less likely as China is the driving force these days.
Secondly, the commentariat often takes warehouse inventory data at face value without
noticing the seasonality of inventory builds. Saxobank is guilty in the above comment,
particularly with its reference to the SHFE system, which is one of the reasons we’ve kept close
tabs on copper inventories year in, year out.
On that cue, we move to our look at the week’s changes in copper stocks, data from Cochilco:
 The additions keep coming, with an aggregate 39,608 metric tonnes (mt) added to the
three official systems. The weekend’s total is 616,435mt but last week saw the stock
growth slow a little. It’s still a period of the year to watch carefully but the yellow flag
of this time last weekend is re-furled; within margin of error, 2025 is panning out in
standard fashion so far.
 The main add as once again at the SHFE, with 29,810mt added. That’s still a chunky
add but it’s also a slowing of the climb as we approach 300kmt (see below). This
weekend there’s 260,091mt under its roofs.
 For the second week running, LME added significant copper inventory to its
warehouses, the 12,525mt putting the world total at 267,750mt. However, this time the
main move came from its European business, with 8,725mt added in Rotterdam and
the rest in Asia.
 Bucking the trend, Comex saw a modest draw down of 2,727mt to dip back under the
90kmt line, Friday’s close 88,594mt. No biggie this week, but we are keeping half an
eye on the stock build in The Americas these days.
The dedicated SHFE charts suggest stocks have more to climb and the 300kmt line is now in
the crosshairs, but we’re also in the window where stocks top out. The only major unknown is
whether the pattern will follow the anomalous 2024, or will things get back to normal?
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
14
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data

Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von ht62
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): Quiz time!
Q: When does a copper exploreco stop putting copper assays in its NR headlines and
start putting copper equivalent asseys in its NR headlines?
A: When it realizes its discovery hole of 0.84% Cu isn’t going to repeat.
Under other circumstances, the BIG hole HER-24-21 reported last week (8) would have been a
positive development, what with its 171m of 0.64% CuEq. But in this case, BIG had been
priming the market for a lot more all year by explaining that the drill program had been leading
up to this hole, how they believed it was a sweet spot on the map, how this and how that. The
cold, hard truth is that 21 (and 22 for that matter) added very little to the project and now
they’re going to have to come up with another plan to hype this to the world. They seem to
have the Barrick USA geologists on the hook (no doubting the scale of the target), but the lack
of repeats of the original October 2023 grades and widths after several attempts in the last five
quarters must be concerning, even to its big strategic partner.
However and somehow, BIG rallied on the news last week. That may be due to its poor
showing the previous week, or it may be because this thing is hyped to kingdom come among
the paid pump brigade and funds that have more money than common sense (looking at you,
Neil Adshead). But one week doesn’t make a trend and if it weren’t for Barrick’s sponsorship,
this stock price would be back from whence it came in 2023 already. Avoid.
Pampa Metals (PM.cse): The other NR of interest last week came from PM, which
announced (9) it had agreed to buy the failing Rugby Resources (RUG.v) in an all-share deal
and at the same time, move to list on the Australian stock exchange.
The reason to like RUG.v is its Cobrasco copper-moly project in the the western Chocó region of
the country, a project whose rocks I’ve liked for years. However, it’s not a stock I’ve ever
bought because the key element at Cobrasco is its very difficult community situation. The plan
has always been to wait and watch until RUG got the drills turning (simple “agreement” or
“permit in hand” is not enough in that zone) and then potentially buy, as there’s a big porphyry
there that has returned interesting numbers from the only three holes ever drilled:
808m @ 0.42% Cu, 79 ppm Mo
754m @ 0.46% Cu, 76 ppm Mo
144.6m @ 0.69% Cu, 155ppm Mo

Holes that stand up to close inspection, but there’s a reason RUG hasn’t managed to drill or
develop the project and has withered on the vine,to the extent that a tiny CSE-lister can now
pick it up. CSR there is very, but VERY difficult and don’t think for a minute that an official
document is enough to allow the rigs to move in. For sure PM will be able to refresh the story
and, with the prospect of an ASX listing, have brand new ears to which to sell its grand plans.
But be very clear, until they have core in an assay lab Cobrasco is not a project to buy.
The stock dropped on the news of the all-share deal, which is understandable. Expect plenty of
promo around this company now Bryce Roxburgh in involved who, to be fair, knows his
Argentina very well and is probably getting the better of this deal. The good-looking rocks at
Cobrasco have brought him a decent exploration target in San Juan Argentina and he still keeps
20% of his Colombian gig as a spinco (that may go into hibernation a while).
The Producer Basket
After 8 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 11.65% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1127 51.09 45.33 21.8%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 47.86 96.10 22.9%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 31.99 18.30 18.1%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 26.64 138.69 17.9%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.70 2.82 15.6%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 2.75 13.41 -9.8%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.23 2.82 13.7%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 1.98 4.00 0.5%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 1.78 5.98 7.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 148.95 1.45 9.76 8.7%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 11.65%
Our 2025 Producer Basket performance continues to be as close to shameful as I’ve ever felt
since starting this segment eight years ago and while the fight for an annual win against the
GDX benchmark is only semi-serious (the main job here is to keep tabs on the larger caps in
order to help decisions in juniors), it feels more serious by the week. The gap is now 8.65%, as
GDX fell by 0.7% and we fell by more thanks to six losers (NEM, EGO, OGC.to, NGD, SAND,
WDOFF) compared to four winners (AEM, GOLD, FNV, BTG). Best of the bunch by quite a
distance was B2Gold (BTG up 11.0%), worst was a near equal-and-opposite performance by
OceanaGold (OGC.to down 10.5%).
The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
10% GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead) 9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Newmont (NEM): The big show of the week came on Thursday evening when Newmont
reported its Q4 and 2024 YE financials, with results that beat analyst estimates and as its an
S&P500 stock, here’s Reuters (10):
16
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
30% comparative to GDX control
25%
20% ikn
gdx control
15%
10%
5%
source: IKN calcs
0%
Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th 16th 23rd
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

On an adjusted basis, Newmont earned $1.40 per share for the quarter ended
December 31, compared with analysts' average estimate of $1.08 per share, according
to data compiled by LSEG.
Much as I’d like to dedicate a few dozen pages to the details of this complex corporate entity
with dozens of moving parts, coverage of the world’s #1 gold miner is not part of the brief at
The IKN Weekly so we’ll try to sum up the main points. Production at 1.9m oz gold was the first
time that post-Newcrest NEM has delivered a strong production quarter and with the merger
now fully integrated, we also saw the money flow through the books for the first time. Among
the impressive totals were
 Net income: $1.403Bn
 Adjusted net income: $1.591Bn
 Net Cash from operating activities: $2.511Bn
 Free cash flow: $1.636Bn
The final line was the one that most stood out for this desk, as capex stayed reasonable at
$875m for the quarter. All this at an average received price of $2,643/oz gold, so it only needs
one look at the gold price at the moment to see what happens next. I was suitably impressed,
perhaps not so much on a per-share basis…
 Net income/share: $1.24 (Fwd price multiple 9.1X)
 Adjusted net income/share: $1.41 (Fwd price multiple 8.0X)
 Net Cash from operating activities/share: $2.23 (Fwd price multiple 5.1X)
 Free cash flow/share: $1.45 (Fwd price multiple 7.8X)
…but in absolute dollars earned. Big share count or not, the mining world needs a top dog
company that can generate serious free cash flow because 1) it will stay in the sector and 2) it
will encourage generalist money to take a closer
look at NEM and all its peers. That’s what money NEM: Received price minus AISC, per qtr
does to Wall St types. Despite all this, NEM
shares sold off on Friday and while it was a
negative day for the entire sector, its 5.7% drop
outdid the GDX with the main reason,
unsurprisingly, guidance. With 2025 production
now set at 5.9m after the sale of its non-core assets, NEM will only produce some 350k oz
more than it did in 2023, the year it swallowed
Newcrest. The other issue is costs, as we could
be generous and assume that at long last NEM is
being realistic with its cost guidance.
Notoriously, NEM has missed the upper end of AISC
guidance every year for the past eight years, including
FY24 when they promised us a U$1,400/oz AISC only to
deliver U$1,516/oz. To be fair, its U$1,620/oz guidance
for FY25 is almost exactly on our previous guesstimate
of U$1,630/oz however, when coupled with the drop in
absolute ounces produced we're going to see lower free
cash flow and operating profits in absolute terms. The
IKN estimate is for around half a billion dollars less in
1q25 operating profits compared to the quarter just
reported and that's an amount of money that matters,
even when we adjust for the new and higher gold price.
The bottom line to this overly brief look at the NEM quarter is that it’s okay to be pleased with
the company’s results and unsurprised about the way it sold off. Stocks are barometers and not
thermometers, Wall St sees a dip in earnings in the next couple of quarters and a company that
should now move into consolidation mode, rather than grasp for further growth, now the
Newcrest purchase is fully digested. NEM at current valuations and the 2025 guidance isn’t a
17
165 726 398 908 217 887 856 247 637 294 024 345 035 394 494 915 156 587 709
0811 0821
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700 600
500 400 300 200
100
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 gva
5202
U$/oz
source: company filings, IKN calcs
Newmont: Annual average AISC/oz Au
429 909 669 5401 2601 1121
4441 6151 0261
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 tse5202
U$/oz
source: company filings

sexy story, the dividend is small compared to peers and when a mining company gets serious
and starts focusing on balance sheet improvement, it’s not going to win over the hot money.
That said, I still very much prefer to look at NEM in 2025 as a glass half full, as we now have a
big gold miner that has shown it can make big money. We need that, it feeds down the chain
and attracts more capital into the sector. As a non-holder of NEM I’m happy about its results
and will be cheering for more big cahs numbers in the quarters to come.
Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to): With the sale of my modest Barrick (GOLD) trading position,
commentary on the stock returns to this section and there are two developments of note on the
week (or three if you include the share price). Firstly, early week saw an interview with GOLD
CEO Mark Bristow that included comments on the company potentially redomiciling to The USA.
That move makes a lot of sense considering 1) the minor exposure GOLD has to its country of
birth these days 2) the more attractive profile GOLD would offer to the biggest money if it
became a US company and 3) the recent ambivalence toward mining shown by Canada’s
political leaders. Without wading (too far) into political waters with an audience that has
probably forgotten more than I know about the Canadian political scene, it’s not a difficult call
to state that the present admin has been less than enthusiastic about the mining sector and
with the prospect of a tightly fought general election at the end of this year, this smacks of
Barrick firing some sort of warning shot (or perhaps it’s a “hey let’s talk” to Canada’s political
right wing), a trial balloon statement that was received with less hostility than the last time the
subject was floated around, not long after the Randgold acquisition. At that time, Bristow ended
up pledging to increase the company’s exposure to Canada by buying a new mine or project
there, but half-hearted attempt at Great Bear aside, that hasn’t happened and this time, GOLD
got a tacit green light from the market.
The second piece of news hit after I’d sold my shares and that’s a pity, because it briefly
popped the stock back above U$19 before profit-takers moved in. Here’s how the Reuters
scoop began (11):
Feb 19 (Reuters) - Canadian miner Barrick Gold has signed a new agreement with the Malian
government to end an almost two-year-old dispute over its mining assets in the West African
country, four people familiar with the developments told Reuters on Wednesday.
Barrick has signed the agreement and it is now up to Mali's government to formally approve the
deal, the sources told Reuters. An official announcement could come as early as Thursday.
Another source said that though a deal was close, last minute hurdles could still derail it.
The Toronto-based miner and Mali have been locked in a dispute since 2023 over the
implementation of the West African country's new mining code that gives Mali's government a
greater share in the gold mine.
As part of the new agreement, Barrick will pay a total of 275 billion CFA or $438 million to the Mali
government, in return for the release of detained employees, seized gold, and restarting the
operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine.
Barrick did not immediately respond to an email query by Reuters. A spokesperson for Mali's
mines ministry declined to comment.
We still haven’t received official word from Barrick about the deal, but assuming it is confirmed
(e.g. at BMO this coming week) they’re bound to go with the “mutual agreement” line, trying to
imply it’s win-win despite having obviously caved in to the Malian government’s intransigent
position. We also assume the deal will include a rubber stamp on the permit renewal slated for
2026. In trading, it may surprise you to learn that over the last ten days that include both sets
of year-end reports, Barrick shares have done better than those of its larger rival, Newmont.
This despite Barrick’s ok-at-best Q4 and
Newmont’s eye-popping operating profit
as disclosed Thursday evening. If you
ever needed an example of how market
expectations govern price action, here’s
your chart (right).
It’s also why I chose GOLD as my near-
term flip vehicle in late December. While
I’m the first to admit it fell out of the stalls
and had a weak January, the February
18

action made up for most of that and while I should have chosen AEM as a safer option, the
trade turned out okay. The sentiment around Barrick until recently has been pure hatred and
that’s something which will always ebb and flow.
New Gold (NGD): NGD files its Q4 on time and the results were enough to see the stock rally,
though not enough to make it a viable alternative to the dirt cheap EGO. Mine operating
earnings at $93.1m was good without being great.
NGD: Quarterly Earnings Overview
19
2.151
2.99
2.55
2.3-
8.261
5.801
3.25
2
6.102
2.711
1.55
3.92
4.481
9.401
3.45
2.52
3.102
5.701
8.85
53
2.991
8.021
66
4.21
1.291
8.601
7.26 6.22
2.812
5.901 8.96 9.83
252
6.701
3.85
1.68
2.262
4.211
7.65
1.39
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75 50
25
0
-25
22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q4 42q2 42q3 42q4
$m
revenues
op-ex
deprec/deplet
Mine Op Earnings
source: company filings
Cash and liquidity continues to be an issue, so once
again if I were NGD I’d be looking to leverage the NGD: Working Capital per qtr
high asset value and while Wesdome may want a
more dynamic suitor than NGD it’s about time this
company did something to add to its two working
mines before they really start to lose mojo. NGD is
another pick for the 2025 basket that I now regret
making, as it now has “market perform at best”
written all over it….why didn’t I go with AGI again?
Sigh.
The TinyCaps List
After 8 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a loss of 0.84% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 12.72 0.095 -41.2%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 17.64 0.125 -13.8%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 6.93 0.07 -46.2%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 24.43 0.14 -3.4%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 36.06 0.475 21.8%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 8.68 0.09 12.5%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 236.796 34.34 0.145 11.5%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 15.57 0.145 70.6%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 22.90 0.435 -20.9%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 118.384 17.17 0.145 3.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -0.84%
4.303
3.322 3.602 1.102
6.541 9.431 8.221 7.701
2.0-
6.28 5.77
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q4 42q2 42q3 42q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the
window a little and allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
It was the week of the half cent move, as coincidence (and a boring market) saw seven of our
ten component stocks move by that exact amount. It
TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
was also the week the TinyCaps List average 5%
dropped back into the red, but that’s all because of 4%
the one big mover, not the little guys. 3%
2%
There were three week-over-week winners (EDG.v, 1%
KDK.v, LMS.v) and they all went up by half a penny. 0%
One stock remained unchanged (RDU.v) so that -1%
leaves six losers and four of those were half cent -2%
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
losses (BRO.v, CN.v, MOG.v, VAU.v) and nothing -3%
anyone holding this spec plays should be worried Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th 16th 23rd
about. Another smallfry move came from South Star
(STS.v down 3.3%), which leaves Electrum Discovery (ELY.v down 39.1%) as villain of the
piece.
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): I understand Dr Elena Clarici, CEO of ELY, is not from the ranks
of the Canadian junior mining world and isn’t versed in its….let’s call them “nuances” to be
diplomatic. This may explain last week’s NR from the company (12), “Electrum Discovery
Announces Audio-Magnetotelluric Geophysical Survey Results over the Central Bambino
Anomaly at the Timok East Project and Provides Drilling Update” as tacking on the drilling
update as some type of afterthought is a yellow flag in itself. Once we got past all the stuff
geologists enjoy about geofizz and the part on the ongoing initial drill campaign, we learn that
the holes are now in the labs and the team is now waiting for results, but we’re also told this:
Drilling intersected varying intensities of chlorite-epidote alteration and silicification
throughout both holes, along with stockwork-style quartz-calcite veining and skarn-style
replacement featuring minor sulphide mineralization. These characteristics are indicative of
the peripheral zones of a large hydrothermal mineral system and closely resemble the distal
features of porphyry and epithermal systems in the Bor porphyry trend, and skarn type
mineral deposits on the western margin of the Timok Magmatic Complex. Combined with the
results of the AMT survey, these findings strongly suggest the presence of a deep primary
exploration target, warranting further exploration.
That type of “geologically interesting” commentary means only one thing; don’t expect good
grades and/or widths when the results come back
from the labs. The market took its cue from the
implied message and did this to the stock price:
Be clear, this trade isn’t dead and the people who
reco’d this exploreco to me in November still like it
today, but we should now presume these first
results to be exploratory-only, with a view to the
team learning more for the next round of drilling.
We’ll keep an eye on ELY in this section to see
how low it goes, there may be a nice three to six
month fliptrade if the selling takes it much lower.
20

Mogotes Metals (MOG.v): The long NR published by MOG on Tuesday reminded me of three
things (13). The first came with the first word of the title line, “Vicuña District: Start of
Exploration on New Exploration Ground” and by the time the “Hey everybody! We’re next to the
Lundins!” message was repeated for the sixth time it should be clear to any reader what the
company is pinning its early-stage momentum on. The second was how much geologists can
talk about geology, why use 200 words when 5,000 plus several visual aids will do? The third is
the early-stage nature of this company and project, we’re a long way from the time when the
drill bits turn.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina mailbag
Knowing my bullish stance on the country, a few days ago reader DR wrote in regarding
Argentina and, along with background information and the reason for his query, his central
question was:
I've heard from a friend that the new government in Argentina has told the mining
companies that you cannot sit on your project forever. You must crap or get off of the
pot, now. So, mining companies have been given (a year?) to get things going on their
projects?
That people have crossed wires and mixed information about the investment landscape in
Argentina is understandable, it’s not the easiest of countries to navigate at the best of times. So
to begin, there’s no unusual time limit on mining projects in Argentina today. The concessioning
laws have not changed and if a company has property rights, those are respected for the
duration of the concession (and any extension, which is also normal).
The confusion probably comes from reader DR and his friend picking up on the “RIGI”
investment stimulus law, passed and eventually enacted in August last year. This is the law
package that benefits investment in projects worth over U$200m and has defined time limits.
RIGI brings plenty of tax breaks and currency benefits and, as seen in the recent numbercrunch
on AbraSilver (ABRA.v), makes a lot of sense for a high capex business such as mine
construction. However, RIGI has specific time limits. Firstly, you must apply in the two year
period as stipulated by the law. This time window extendable by one year, if the Argentina
government decides to do so and while it’s not cast-iron guaranteed, it’s extremely likely that
RIGI will be a three year window as from last August. Secondly, your project must be a capital
investment of at least U$200m (so small gold mines need not apply). Thirdly, you must spend
at least 40% of your proposed budget in the first two years after your RIGI plan is approved. In
other words, there’s a capex barrier to entry, there’s a time limit to apply and then there’s a
time limit to deploy.
The RIGI stimulus law is an attractive package and will appeal to many mining companies, but
if your project doesn’t qualify or if you can’t get it moving inside the two (or three) year time
limit, you don’t lose anything. Also, there’s a high likelihood that if successful, RIGI is extended
to attract more FDI so even if your company has an early stage project and won’t be able to
get it into project that quickly, you may not miss out.
Ecuador Presidential election update
We’re keeping an eye on the Ecuador Presidential election run-off between Luisa González (left
wing, RC party, Rafael Correa’s protégée) and Daniel Noboa (right wing, current President).
Three matters to report:
1) The first opinion poll to publish since the election officially became a run-off came out last
week and put Luisa González in a four point lead over Noboa. However, the polling company is
21

notoriously biased toward the RC party and Rafael Correa, so its numbers should be taken with
plenty of grains of salt.
2) After the note last week laying out the kingmaker role of Leonidas Iza (Pachakutik, CONAIE)
and his decision definitely not to endorse Noboa but potentially endorsing González, this week
we heard from the fourth placed candidate, Andrea González (no relation to Luisa) who got
2.69% of first round votes. In an interview with CNN Español (14), Andrea González played the
mirror opposite to Leonidas Iza. She made it clear she would not endorse Luisa González under
any circumstances, but without stating it out loud it’s clear she’s ready to reach a deal with
Noboa. When pressed by the interviewer for her preference she said, “I prefer liberty, because
I know what happens to people like me under (a regime of) 21st century socialism.”
3) There’s plenty of time to reach agreements and pacts before the business end of this run-off
is with us and as things stand, I’d opine that Andrea González endorsing Daniel Noboa is more
likely than Leonidas Iza endorsing Luisa González. It’s still a tight race and the on-ground
campaign from now until mid-April is set to make the difference, but I’m going to underscore
my slight preference for Noboa and maintain the optimism. Rafael Correa has too many
skeletons in his cupboard and when the campaign heats up, you can bet dollars to donuts the
Noboa team will go full negative campaign in order to scare voters into the status quo.
Market Watching
Lumina Gold (LUM.v): Adding to the Watch List
On reflection, it’s silly not to. The first recent mention of Lumina Gold (LUM.v) came in the main
Fundamental Analysis note in IKN816 dated January 5th “Ecuador is a buy”, the thinkpiece that
laid out why I’ve started looking at one of the more difficult mining jursictions with a more
optimistic eye. That note included LUM.v on the short-list of trade candidates but as you’re
probably aware, my preference has been for Salazar Resources (SRL.v), so far at least. But
LUM.v is certainly an interesting alternative and in IKN821 dated February 9th the Fundamental
Analysis note that weekend, “An overview of Lumina Gold (LUM.v)”, laid out the reasoning and
the framework of its appeal. As noted last weekend in this section…
…LUM shares shot higher just after that note in IKN821, as LUM feels like a story whose time
had come. It’s also one that has so far managed to ignore the new found uncertainty in the
Ecuador election race. Friday did see some retracing and a 63c finish, so with the election now
in the balance and the run-off campaign set for two months of noise, we may get a return to
the kind of entry price that reduces risk. Therefore and taking everything into consideration, as
from next weekend LUM.v will be added to the Stocks to Follow Watch List. That means I’m not
buying any shares yet, but it will make sure we keep a close eye on its development on a
formal basis, instead of the occasional note here in Market Watching. If the price is right and
the election gives a mining friendly resolution, there’s an obvious trade here.
22

Thoughts on Vizsla Silver (VZLA) (VZLA.v) and memories of SilverCrest
Aside from at the very beginning when the initial holes were pumped hard and I decided to
ignore the trade (a mistake, one of many in my life), this desk’s issue with Vizsla Silver Corp
(VZLA) (VZLA.v) has never been with the quality or scale of the rocks at its Panuco silver/gold
project in Sinaloa, Mexico. It’s the address that most concerns, located in prime Mexican narco
bandit country, East of Mazatlán and in the heart of the (sometimes hotly contested) fiefdom.
That’s a cute way of saying that community risk is off-scale high in this zone and while I’m
happy enough to expose my cash to some areas of Mexico (e.g. Zacatecas, most of Sonora,
other regions; Minera Alamos is a Top Pick, after all), others are clear no-go areas until
something better happens. Guerrero State, Baja California Sur, Chiapas most (not 100%) of
Oaxaca and most (not 100%) of Sinaloa are in the red flag list.
Therefore, taken on a standalone basis and wrapped in a vacuum, Panuco is certainly an
interesting project so when on Thursday (15) it filed its updated 43-101 technical report,
including a updated resource estimate and PEA calculations, I downloaded my copy for evening
reading. There’s no way we can encapsulate such a detailed document in just a few lines and
I’d recommend you get your own copy, but suffice to say here that it’s an excellent project with
outstanding mineralization and PEA parameters. This summary table from the top of the 43-101
gives a general idea…
…and includes hints to the ease of mining (nice wide stopes), straightforward metallurgy,
revenues almost entirely from the main silver and gold payables and very impressive NPV and
IRR calculations at conservative base case prices for silver ($26/oz) and gold U$1.975/oz (and
for those that care, I’m no fan of that 5% discount to NPV but the model’s sensitivity
calculations show that using 10% discount and metals prices of U$31/oz and U$2,500/oz gold,
the returns remain almost exactly the same).
23

The above table also includes the line item that prompted this Market Watching note today, the
initial capex estimate of U$224m. That’s very low for what the sector would consider a “world
class” precious metals operation these days and even if this PEA calculation is off by a lot,
there’s relatively little front-end barrier on Panuco compared to most proposals for new mines
in 2025, certainly not for a mine that would run at an annual average of over 15m oz AgEq with
60% of that pure silver.
Which beings me to my point. Here’s the post-
Covid four year stock chart for VZLA (we use its
US listing for easier comparatives) and while VZLA
has rallied with the rest of them in 2024 and 2025
(and note the improved volume), this weekend’s
U$2.08 price is still below all-time highs. For what
it’s worth I could have been mean and ran the
three year comparative chart to silver bullion,
showing how far behind VZLA has lagged to the
metal, but that’s not the point today. Instead we
note that with its current 285.2m shares out VZLA
runs a market cap of U$593m, well over double
that of the capex bill to build this mine (and still a
double even if the capex rises sharply). In other
words, any buyer of VZLA and its Panuco project tomorrow morning will be paying way more
for the implied equity valuation than the asset. That speaks volumes to the perceived quality of
the Panuco project of course, but it also means VZLA is less likely to find a buyer until much
further along in its development process.
Put yourself in the position of the potential buyer, perhaps First Majestic, or Coeur, or Pan
American or any other large PM player with a desire to add its next big project and willing to
play in Mexico. If you were in their shoes, surely it would make far more sense to allow VZLA to
take all the capital risk and finance and raise its own U$250m, build its own mine and even get
it into production before making a move? The same situation we saw at SilverCrest Metals (ex
SILV) in fact and that’s hardly a coincidence. If VZLA is obliged to go out and finance its own
mine, the ratio of asset/equity value is bound to move much lower and even if the equity price
moves up, the eventual buyer gets a much better deal if it buys a de-risked mine on the cusp or
into production. The buyer of Panuco today may get a cheaper deal in hard dollars, but would
also assume all the risk of things going wrong and if they do, the big equity portion of today’s
price tag means the risk-tolerant buyer would take an outsized hit to the balance sheet if things
go wrong. Meanwhile and on the other hand, VZLA needing to raise its own capital may well
see its share price drop once the market sees the cost of capital it needs to pay in order to
finance a mine in an unstable zone of narco-Mex.
The bottom line: Panuco’s technical report reads impressively, I recommended readers to get
their own copy from SEDAR and take a look. However, I see no trade in the near and medium-
term and the share price will have a tough time when the time comes to raise capital and build
the mine. That same issue will also likely prevent VZLA become a target for M&A (unless of
course a sell-off brings down the asking price to a risk-acceptable level, one closer to the capex
ticket for the project. That said, I have placed a “Watch” flag next to the name as from today
and somewhere down the line, there may be the same type of trade showing in VZLA as we ran
on SilverCrest in 2024. That one bagged a 40% win, but would have been more if I’d moved at
the time the trade showed its best entry point back in August 2023, when I opened coverage
on SILV but decided to wait, rather than buy. I don’t mind embarrassing myself, so here’s how
that opening note on SILV began, way back in IKN745 dated August 28th 2023:
“If you’re in the market for a silver trade and are looking to speculate on higher prices, SILV
offers a quality way to add leverage and given the right combination of market influences, it will
go higher and make me look stupid for not buying any. However and on due consideration, I
think there’s more potential reward in other places and will therefore pass on this good miner
that’s valued close to its correct level today.”
24

I believe they call that snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but it’s also why VZLA now
has my eye. There’s no trade for me today but let’s see how this develops and how Vizsla Silver
Corp moves to raise its capital and gain permits. If my supposition is correct, there won’t be a
buyer for the company before that stage and once the building starts, it will a lower-risk
investment window with the same high reward potential. Earmarked.
Conclusion
We close IKN823 with bullet points:
 It’s time to make a stand. Eldorado Gold (EGO) may be a black spot in my current
portfolio, but I’m done with fretting over its current low price and I’m going to take
advantage of it. Unless gold prices collapse, this entry point is unbeatable in the entire
madcap gold producer sector.
 Gold doesn’t need blithering idiots screaming inanities to go higher.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
(2) https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2024
(3) https://www.stonex.com/en/media-room/in-the-news/2025-02-14-philip-smith-gold-tariffs-sky-news-arabia/?s=03
(4) https://x.com/JReade_WGC/status/1892874893286391949?t=aff9OnfDnMcSU82ttM0j5w&s=03
(5) https://newsroom.bmo.com/2025-02-12-BMO-Capital-Markets-to-Host-34th-Annual-Global-Metals,-Mining-Critical-
Minerals-Conference,-Feb-23-Feb-26
(6) https://redpineexp.com/red-pine-successfully-expands-gold-mineralization-beyond-2024-mineral-resource-estimate-
and-discovers-parallel-shoot-at-depth/
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/commodities-weekly-energy-market-strength-and-trump-rhetoric-fuel-
ongoing-surge/
(8) https://www.herculesmetals.com/news-release/?qmodStoryID=6439593591536639
(9) https://www.pampametals.com/news/2025/pampa-metals-to-acquire-rugby-resources-and-pursue-asx-listing-
creating-a-leading-south-american-porphyry-copper-explorer.html
(10) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/newmont-beats-fourth-quarter-profit-211213022.html
(11) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/barrick-gold-signs-agreement-with-mali-end-mining-dispute-2025-
02-19/
(12) https://electrumdiscovery.com/electrum-discovery-announces-audio-magnetotelluric-geophysical-survey-results-
over-the-central-bambino-anomaly-at-the-timok-east-project-and-provides-drilling-update/
(13) https://mogotesmetals.com/vicuna-district-start-of-exploration-on-new-exploration-ground/
25

(14) https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2025/02/17/argentina/video/poyo-andrea-gonzalez-elecciones-ecuador-respaldo-
candidatos-conclusiones-tv
(15) https://vizslasilvercorp.com/vizsla-silver-provides-2024-year-end-summary-and-2025-outlook-2/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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