IKN #822Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 822, February 16th 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, An American long weekend, A silver update.
Fundamental Analysis: Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) 4q24 production and forward guidance
Stocks to Follow: Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to), Surge Copper (SURG.v), AbraSilver Resource
Corp (ABRA.v), Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), Orecap (OCI.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Rio2 Ltd
(RIO.v), Salazar Resources (SRL.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Element 29 (ECU.v), Hot Chili (HCH.v), XXIX Metal (XXIX.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Agnico Eagle (AEM), New Gold (NGD).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Electrum Discovery (ELY.v), Kodiak Copper (KDK.v).
Regional Politics: The Ecuador Presidential run-off campaign begins
Market Watching: Lumina Gold (LUM.v): A idea whose time has come?, Hecla Mining (HL)
misses guidance.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Two planned trades to report for the week to come:
 I’m adding to my starter position in Surge Copper (SURG.v) this coming week, the
straightforward rationale to this addition laid out in Stocks to Follow notes.
 Also in Stocks to Follow notes, a confirmation that I’m taking profits on the near-term trade
in Barrick (GOLD). That shouldn’t be a big surprise.
So now you know, it’s time for the real start to the edition:
In Today’s Edition
 To be honest, I don’t have much for you this week. The week was dominated by large
cap miners such as Agnico (AEM) and Barrick GOLD) reporting their quarters, metals
price action was four days of continuation and a Friday dump that’s difficult to worry
about too much, the junior world is taking its intake of breath before the rough and
tumble of the upcoming conference season, as well as its own reporting season. We
cover the Q4 production and forward guidance reported last week by our new copper
trade Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) in the main Fundies section, but it doesn’t take too long
to cover the essentials.
 That said, there are two trades planned for the week ahead, with the well-flagged profit
taking in the Barrick (GOLD) trade flip, which pays for the addition to the Surge Copper
(SURG.v) starter position. There are times when “leverage to (name the metal)” is a plan
that really works, that’s where we are with copper today.
 Today’s intro updates on our current position regarding silver, as laid out four weeks and
five weekends ago in IKN818 and “Silver: Bullish not moonish”. One month on and our
thesis is in the right ballpark, but circumstances have changed a little and some upward
adjustment of the silver target price is required.
1

 Regional Politics is once again about Ecuador, as the dust settles on last weekend’s
Round One Presidential election vote and we gear up for the run-off. There’s a change in
our position and while Noboa is still probably the favourite this weekend, it’s nowhere
near as clear cut as before.
An American long weekend
A reminder that tomorrow is Louis Riel Day in Manitoba, as well as Family Day/Heritage Day in
the rest of Canada and, of course the long weekend celebrating George Washington’s birthday
in The USA. As such both Canadian and US markets are closed until Tuesday morning. As for
the rest of the North American macro week, there isn’t so much scheduled for us metals/mining
people, but we may see a flurry of financial opinions when the Fed releases the minutes of the
last FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
A silver update
Five weekends ago in IKN818 dated January 19th, the intro note “Silver: Bullish not moonish”
laid out our stance on the Jekyll and Hyde metal, with the title enough to make our editorial line
clear. That weekend, silver spot price stood at U$30.35/oz and this weekend we stand at
U$32.14/oz, numbers that fit with our general game plan even after volatile intraday trading
Friday that saw silver rally to a high of U$33.33/oz (or three ounces for a Franklin, round
number fun) before selling back down again.
The IKN818 note didn’t go into every nook and cranny of the silver supply/demand scene, for
example we didn’t revisit one of the most basic tenets of the sector, the ultra-low production
costs of much of the silver hitting the market (e.g. porphyry mine by-product production, these
days often sold through royalty/stream companies), bringing with it a natural drag to the wider
silver market and ensuring market prices revert more quickly to the margin. Because like it or
not, commodities are priced at the margin. But we did go over the high-level drivers, noting the
supply deficit to market, how above ground inventory should cover the deficit in the next few
years and what to expect from silver as it gets slowly dragged higher by the new-found
popularity in the monetary metal, gold. The conclusion that day included:
“…after considering silver in light of the new information and market backdrop, even
after discarding the hype and wildly bullish predictions based on some fictitious and
fantasyland silver stock out, the silver sub-sector does look attractive again.”
Since then we’ve put our money where our mouth is by opening on AbraSilver (ABRA.v) and
quickly increasing the position size, making it our new #1 silver trade in front of the Aftermath
(AAG.v, also going well) and the more speculative IMPACT Silver (IPT.v, trading awfully).
However, one thing that has changed significantly is the price of gold and, as that is the main
driver of silver’s price increase recently (happy to argue if you disagree, you know my mail
address), an upward adjustment of our targets is in order.
Please refer to the original table in IKN818 for the previous benchmark but, to cut a long story
short, assuming a gold price U$2,700/oz and U$2,800/oz and gold/silver ratio of between 85X
and 80X we came to a target range of between U$31.76/oz and U$35.00/oz. Since then we’ve
seen gold kick on and it’s good to report that U$2,900/oz is a better place from which to base
our target, however as this chart shows…
2

…our bland assumption that the gold/silver ratio (GSR) might trend lower hasn’t happened.
Instead, we’re back at the 90X-or-so level. Therefore, we offer this as our updated target
range:
Targets for silver at different gold prices and GSR multiples (U$)
Gold
oz Silver oz 75/1 Silver Oz 80/1 Silver Oz 85/1 Silver oz 90/1
2500 33.33 31.25 29.41 27.78
2600 34.67 32.50 30.59 28.89
2700 36.00 33.75 31.76 30.00
2800 37.33 35.00 32.94 31.11
2900 38.67 36.25 34.12 32.22
3000 40.00 37.50 35.29 33.33
3100 41.33 38.75 36.47 34.44
3500 46.67 43.75 41.18 38.89
source: IKN calcs & ests
Note that at 90X and U$2,900/oz, we’re extremely close to silver’s Friday close price. However,
there’s not reason to expect the GSR to move much higher (without another systemic shock
hitting the wider market, at least) and on consideration, upside targets are still logical using an
85X multiple, which means we could easily see U$34/oz reappear soon, with U$35/oz+
numbers waiting in the wings.
The big question is, therefore, what will cause silver to rally against gold and move its current
90X ratio back to 85X (or even to 80X, where the real dollar increases lay)? The answer is the
normal and boring one, economic activity. While silver stackers and HODLers (I think that’s how
you spell it) will claim that the growth in investment activity tips the balance, the fundamental
difference between silver and its more expensive cousin is its industrial applications, which
historically account for over 50% of demand in any given year. We’ll find out how close The
Silver Institute’s (TSI) 2024 forecasts were next month when it publishes its annual report, but
the estimated 702m oz Ag demanded by industry includes the much vaunted current driver of
demand, photovoltaics (below right) that we are guesstimating at 240m oz Ag for 2024, with
“other industrial” (there are all types of usages) making up the rest.
Silver: Demand breakdown
337.1 309.3 212.9 155.8 165.9 187.4 284.3 243.1
208.1
260.8 242.6 255.6 270.3 262.9 182.1 222.7 308 258.3
While investment interest helps, we should not overlook the fact that price gains in silver
encourage regurgitation of stock into the market and indeed, it’s no surprise to see scrap supply
on the increase and the higher silver goes, the more
that will happen (sorry stackers, but reality is reality).
However, industrial demand takes silver off the
market more permanently so if you want a gold/silver
ratio to start dropping, you want to see more silver
being used outside of coins, bullion and so forth. This
is why the Gold/Silver ratio is historically correlated to
the boom/bust economic cycle and while that’s been
3
1.754 5.984 4.625 2.425 5.325 7.906 3.165
3.885
4.456 207
1400
1200
1000
800
600 400 208
200 270
0
5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 e4202
M oz Ag Total Industrial Silver use in photovoltaics, per annum
Coins&Bars Jewelry/Silverware
Source: The Silver Institute, GFMS
1.69 101 501
7.311 721 3.041 1.161 5.391 232 042
240 220
200
180
160 140
120 100 80
60
40
20
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
source: The Silver Institute
gA
zoM
annual TSI forecast
Annual TSI reported result
Silver: Scrap supply
741 7.541 2.741 7.841 2.841
3.461 7.371 6.871 6.871 781
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 e4202
M oz Ag
source: The Silver Institute, GFMS

a lesser factor in our post-Covid years, don’t think for a moment that it’s gone away.
Bottom line: You want silver to beat out gold? It’s not going to happen in some sort of
dystopian world crash scenario; instead silver out-performs gold when the world’s economies
are doing well. Therefore, if you’re bullish on the future of China, The USA, the new broom of
Trump-led economics that aim to Make America Great Again and see it lead the world into
prosperity, buying silver over gold at the current 90:1 ratio is a good idea. Okay, I may have
laid the rhetoric on a bit thick there but I’m sure you get the point and for what it’s worth, the
GSR as a financial barometer has stood the test of time. We won’t need concrete results of
improvement in the world macro for silver to run fast, it would be enough to see a new round
of optimism and frankly, I’m in that camp today. Realist as always, I’m not an ideologue
banging the table for a GSR of 15:1 (from centuries past) or even 7:1 (the ratio of silver to gold
in the Earth’s crust…silverbugs will never cease to amuse me), this desk’s ambitions are more
modest but, as seen above, even a return to an 80:1 ratio would imply a silver price of U$40/oz
at current gold prices and with the monetary metal now back as a serious reserve alternative
(for more ask Central Bankers, or China, or India) it would take a seismic shift to see gold
knocked back from whence it came.
So, U$30/oz six weeks ago and U$32/oz today, we continue to be bullish on silver, but not
moonish. As for the trades, ABRA is going well and AAG is on the right side of the line, the only
headache is IPT.
A small reflection on feedback
Thanks to all who took the time to send in feedback on last week’s note on Lumina Gold
(LUM.v), a surprising number of you this time, it’s always greatly appreciated. The brief update
note on LUM.v in Market Watching today includes comments made by one of you, best
described as a market professional with intimate and ongoing knowledge of the Cangrejos
project. The exchange reminded your author of a truism about market coverage of stocks,
certainly true of mining companies and probably true about them all.
 Publish a bullish, positive article and the management will applaud and appreciate
you, no matter how many mistakes are included in the note.
 Publish a bearish, negative article and my holy stars, you’d better make sure you
have every single i dotted, every t crossed.
Last week’s note on LUM is an example. I don’t want people who know more about a project
than I do telling me my take is the best thing since sliced bread, I want to know what I got
wrong in order to improve and polish going forward and do that, I invariably have to ask the
other person to be critical, to find errors and to correct my script where necessary.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) 4q24 production and forward guidance
It was quite a ride for Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) shares last week after the company on
Tuesday February 11th reported its 4q24 production numbers (1), as well as updating its three
year guidance figures. This ten-day chart (right) shows the two moments last week when ERO
first reacted negatively to the news, only for the
market to change its opinion later in the week and
start buying the stock without pause, with ERO being
one of the very few copper or gold stories that
manages to ignore the metals price dump on Friday.
We still have nearly three weeks to wait before ERO
reports its financials, that happens on Thursday March
6th, so that’s when we’ll go deeper on its financial
situation, but the trading last week demands some
thought as it’s unusual to see a stock sold down the
4

way it was, only to provoke buyers who came in with such vigor that the stock ended up 7.4%.
First we consider the negative reaction to the NR and that’s not too difficult to work out, as
both Q4 production and forward guidance were below previous levels. With the opening of its
new Tucumã mine, ERO now has three producing assets and usefully for the purposes of our
narrative, they all under-performed in Q4. Starting with the main copper mine at Caraiba,
operational glitches restricted processed throughput to under 720kmt in the quarter (below left)
and while average grade is beginning to get back to more normal levels and averaged 1.30%
Cu in Q4 (below right), that wasn’t enough to offset the lack of tonnes processed.
As a result, Caraiba copper production came in at 18.9m lbs, the lowest in the post-Covid era.
ERO: Caraiba Copper prod & sales, per qtr (Mlbs)
5
3.72 1.22 5.82 2.32 3.92 9.02 6.52 2.22 2.52 9.02 2.91 0.22 9.81
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
ERO: Tonnage mined/processed, per qtr
Mlbs Cu
Cu prod (lb)
Cu sales (lb)
source: company filings, IKN ests
Next up we consider the early results from its new copper mine at Tucumã and although it is
still in the ramp-up stage and was never expected to hit full capacity until 2025, its first
quarters have obviously been glitchy. We’ll find out more when ERO reports its quarter but the
production total of 4,317mt copper was below original expectations. There’s not enough data
for meaningful charts yet, so here’s a table showing the first two quarters of pre-production. Q3
was trial phase and it’s good to see grade and recoveries improving, but processed ore didn’t
impress:
qtr Ore process grade % recovery % Cu prod mt
3q24 110,778 1.00% 75.7% 839
4q24 223,013 2.17% 89.1% 4,317
A little more on Tucumã below when we consider guidance.
Finally, we consider the Q4 from ERO’s gold mine at Xavantina where ERO also hit throughput
glitches. As a result, processed tonnes dropped to just 26,120mt for the quarter (below left):
959706 170726 841355 744384 495795 299355 666275 913646 032695 524108 527027 058547 845277 128048 690608 202218 173358 296759 982009 249917
1100000
1000000
900000
800000 700000
600000 500000 400000
300000
200000
100000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
mt ERO: Avg milled grade Cu, per qtr
total mined tonnes
total ore processed
source: company filings
%59.1 %89.1
%81.2
%62.2 %03.2
%31.2
%09.1 %10.2 %87.1 %47.1 %86.1 %48.1
%33.1 %55.1 %64.1 %95.1 %80.1 %30.1 %02.1 %03.1
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings
ERO at Xavantina: Ore mined/processed, per qtr
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
mt ERO at Xavantina: Gold head grade
ore mined (mt) ore processed (mt)
source: company filings
67.7 57.7 46.7 27.7 62.8 54.7 73.7
42.6 39.5 95.6
55.8
71.01 58.11
02.31
27.81
81.71 83.61
00.41
14.11 81.11
22
20 18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Au g/t
source: company filings

Head grade (above right) at 11.18 g/t gold is similar to that of 3q24 as the bonus high grade
zone that pimped production is now a thing of the past (and ERO mentioned as much in
guidance). No issue there, simply a re-adjustment of expectations required. Recoveries (below
left) remained good, and when it all added up, production came to 8,936oz gold. That’s a big
drop from recent quarters and it’s all about the missed throughput.
ERO at Xavantina: gold recoveries
NB: Cut Down Y-Axis
Overall, a less than sparkling quarter from ERO. What’s more when it came to guidance it
managed to underwhelm its audience for the second time in just one NR, as the news 2025 and
long-term numbers saw downward adjustment from previous estimates.
At first glance, the big jump in copper guidance compared to 2024 looks good, but that's all to
do with Tucumã coming online. At Tucumã, ERO now guides production at between 37,500mt
and 42,500mt for the year. That's significantly lower than the previous guidance of between
50kmt and 54kmt and that's all to do with the slower than anticipated ramp up to full
production, with Q2 now slated for commercial production levels rather than the 2024 plan of
1q25.Also, 2026 guidance has also been dropped by 3,000mt, it's now 45kmt to 50kmt.
Meanwhile at Caraiba, copper guidance for 2025 is also 37,500mt to 42,500mt, which is almost
the same as the previous guidance of 38kmt to 42kmt. However, 2026 guidance has been
trimmed by 2,00mt to now sit between 40kmt and 45kmt.
So put those two together and copper guidance is
now between 75,000 and 85,000 tonnes for the
current year, moving up the 85kmt to 95kmt in
2026. That compares to previous guidance of
between 88kmt and 96kmt for 2025, then between
90kmt and 100kmt for 2026. In other words, copper
guidance has seen some significant trimming since
ERO last spoke.
Finally, the only asset that hasn't seen much
adjustment is Xavantina. The company noted that
grades are set to return to the baseline model levels
in 2025 and beyond, that may be why they have
6
%1.78 %6.98 %0.29 %4.59 %7.49 %6.89 %7.29 %3.09 %3.29 %6.19 %3.39 %7.09 %4.19 %6.48 %9.29 %7.88 %5.19 %0.19 %5.29 %8.29
100%
95%
90%
85%
80% 75% 70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
ERO at Xavantina: Gold production and sales, per qtr
source: company filings
6257 4838
5489 00101 02001 3599 5869
9777 3108
84401 70921 38501 79031 61901 75451 97481 35861 12671 51641
6398
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000 8000 6000
4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Au oz prod
Au oz sold
source: company filings, IKN ests
MT Cu ERO: Tucuma guidance MT Cu ERO: Caraiba production and guidance
60000
60000
50000
50000
40000
40000
30000 30000
20000 20000
10000 10000
0 0
2024 2025* 2026* 2027* 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025*2026* 2027*
source: company guidance source: company filings *ERO guidance
ERO: Total copper production and guidance
41824 11454 17364 75834 00604
00058
00059 00059
MT Cu
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025* 2026* 2027*
source: company filings *ERO guidance

widened the guidance window from between 55,000 oz and 60,000 oz gold to the new range of
50,000 oz gold to 60,000 oz. In other words, same top end but they're giving themselves 5,000
oz of extra leeway at the bottom end.
ERO: Xavantina gold production and guidance
7
03863 89773 96624
22295 01275 00006 00006 00006
Oz Au
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025* 2026* 2027*
source: company filings *ERO guidance
Discussion and conclusion
We’ll wait until ERO reports its financials to get into the weeds, but after yet another lackluster
quarter of production and guidance that did nothing but trim previous expectations at all three
working mines, it’s not a big surprise to see that drop in price on Tuesday morning. In fact, the
surprise came later in the week when ERO found new wind and rallied well, finishing above
C$20 for the first time in four weeks. The numbers will speak more come next month, but I
have two lines of reasoning about that rally and they both point at a new bullish season for the
stock:
1) Despite lower than expected production, the market has realized ERO is a still a
profitable and interesting entity in its own right. Tucumã is behind schedule by a
quarter, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to fail and both grade and recover numbers
indicate a mine that’s going to meet expectations. Caraiba had a hard time, but it’s
seemingly one-time interruptions. Xavantina migfht not be mining the ultra-high grade
of recent quarters, but it’s still a highly profitable mine. So put all that together and that
nice Mr. Market seems willing to forgive this latest lapse, as there’s a a lot of free cash
flow built into this company’s numbers at current metals prices. It may have come in
low, but low is more than enough at C$20 to make for sparkling numbers
2) ERO continues to be an obvious M&A target. A heady combination of operating and
profitable mines, growth baked in an established land position in one of the better
South American jurisdictions, ERO has a lot to offer the madcap suitor looking to
expand production and pipeline.
Somewhere between those two we have the reason for ERO’s rally and for me, confirmation
that we bought right in this stock at these prices. It’s been a frustrating few weeks seeing it flat
line and fail, but its history also includes periods during which it rallies hard and fast. Assuming
its 4q24 financials come in reasonably well and match the reduced expectations of this quarter’s
low production, we should be off to the races afterward.
Stocks to Follow
Of our 19 open positions, last week saw eight winners (MAI.v, EGO, ARG.to, ABRA.v, GOLD,
ERO.to, PAU.cse, MENE.v), five unchanged stocks (MARI.to, OCI.v, AAG.v, SURG.v, PGDC.v)
and six losers (RIO.v, SRL.v, RPX.v, PGZ.v, IPT.v, MIRL.cse), so the headcount works in our
favour. So does the distribution, as most (not all) of the winners are at the top of the table
where there’s more money in play and most (not all) of the losers are at the bottom, with small
cash on board. The only double figure percentage move was Provenance (PAU.cse up 11.9%)
down in the Watch List, so the best real position was the .74% added by Ero Copper (ERO.to).
The losers were all small.

A housekeeping update: When making the seven post-Christmas trade purchases as seen in
IKN815, five of those were new positions and we separated them with the light blue colour at
the bottom of the main Recommended Stocks section of the table (below). With the planned
sale of Barrick (GOLD) this week, that section would be down to two stocks and what’s more,
both of them have a longer-term aspect than the fliptrades we ran in ASCU, GOLD etc.
Therefore as from next weekend we’ll be back to a single colour and both ERO and SURG will
find a more representative place in the table hierarchy.
We currently have 19 open positions on the Stock to Follow list, one under the self-imposed
max. Eleven stocks are in the green, one is unchanged, seven are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.34 61.9% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.75 -6.3% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$13.98 -15.5% Oversold, Q4 this Friday
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.83 18.8% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.60 83.6% Quality Cu developer
AbraSilver ABRA.v STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$3.23 18.3% Main Ag trade, $5.74 tgt
Salazar Res SRL.v BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.095 18.8% Ecuador elex/buyout trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.135 22.7% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.14 -26.3% Cu jr, some recovery recently
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% top fundy value, illiquid
Aftermath Silver AAG.v STR BUY $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.54 27.1% New silver trade going well
Barrick Gold GOLD SELLING U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$17.94 14.3% taking profit on NT trade
Ero Copper ERO STR BUY C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$20.50 5.8% near/medium term Cu fliptrade
Surge Copper SURG.v ADDING $0.11 22-Dec-24 C$0.095 -13.6% bulk copper in good address
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.19 -36.7% Silver spec, done nothing
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.05 150.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.235 176.5% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.13 -71.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'26 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies.
Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to): SELLING. I wasn’t joking. GOLD filed its 4q24 and YE
financials in good order and on time last week, the
market liked what it saw (or better said, the company is
less worse than the share price indicated) and we now
get to sell those shares we bought at under U$16 for
above $18…maybe even U$19 if the week ahead goes
well. Once again and in the same spirit as the sale of
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) recently, I may end up
8

leaving money on the table by selling now, but a plan is a plan and a U$30Bn market cap Tier 1
miner with a chequered recent history isn’t my idea of a long-term hold in what’s supposed to
be a portfolio aimed at juniors and explorecos. A decent little trade, cashing in.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): ADDING.
“Skate to where the puck is
going, not where it has been.”
Wayne Gretzky
Thought I’d throw that one in and tip a hat to Canadian Heritage Day. One of the seven
purchases made in IKN814 dated December 22nd to take advantage of the end of the tax-loss
season, I bought a small opener in SURG but wasn’t looking for it to give immediate returns
(unlike other trades that day, such as ASCU or GOLD). The plan here is to give it 12 months if
necessary, use it as an an infamous “leverage to copper” speculation, take advantage of its
seemingly hard floor at 9c and 10c, but if the opportunity arises to take profits early if offered.
Since then, copper has done what it has done (zoom higher) but SURG has basically flatined. It
doesn’t enjoy a high market profile the way other copper juniors do (American Eagle springs to
mind) but it’s very much in the same ballpark, with location a reasonable match. The lower
average grade at Berg (and Ootsa) is an issue, but it has larger tonnage and scale and
importantly, the deposit is technically straightforward. In the event of this becoming a mine,
there would be no head-scratching to work around
barren zones, no multiple pit operations and no block
caving; this is a straightforward open pit since hole in
the ground.
I’m not telling you this is the next Filo, I am telling you
that as copper prices move through the gears, the meh
economics of Berg become solidly profitable and
attractive and combined with its relative simplicity and
good address, the type of stock that can run quickly
once its attributes hit enough stock filters and radars.
Another factor to consider is the quiet time at
managerial and marketing levels at present, that’s sure
to change as 2025 rolls out and we’re about to go through one of the busiest periods of the
corporate outreach season. So the background to SURG is acceptable, but it’s chiefly the combo
of low share price and improving copper price that has cause my decision to add shares in the
week ahead and move this initial position up a notch or two. At its current market cap of
C$27.5m (U$19m) and a copper resource that’s reasonably pitched at 6Bn lbs, you are getting
an awful lot of copper for your money right now (0.3c/lb in-situ is as close to zero as it comes).
I’ll leave you with the two-year chart of SURG as a reminder of what this stock price did at the
end of 1q24 after PDAC and the Northern winter thaw last year. However, I’m aware SURG
doesn’t live in the vacuum and there are several other copper explorecos of similar size and
reach that could qualify on nearly all (perhaps even all) qualifications for this trade. One
example is Kodiak Copper (KDK.v), which gets due mention in today’s TinyCaps List section
below. SURG isn’t the only one but that’s part of the speculative process in this sector
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): An extra thought on the recent Arizona Sonoran trade
here too, as it didn indeed go up afterward, but on the other hand I could not have bought as
many ABRA.v as I have without selling ASCU first (and couldn’t have put it on the Stocks to
Follow list without breaking my 20 max rule). Missing 20% of upside after selling hurts a lot less
when you’re 27% up in the original replacement position. Indeed, even with that selling on
Friday ABRA is going great guns and a reminder that our current $5.74 price target is based on
modest criteria. As we put it in IKN820 two weeks ago:
“…we underscore the conservative nature of this price target that uses metals price well under
spot, costs well above the parameters set in the PFS and a lower multiple than is common in the
silver mining world (and I’ll never really understand why shares of profitable silver miners
command greater multiples than shares of profitable gold miners, but it’s the way it is).
9

Silver stocks are highly frustrating vehicles, but the reason to care exists and that’s the
explosive upside they offer at certain points in the market cycle for miners. Those windows tend
to be brief (unfortunately) but when they come along, they’re to grab with both hands. We’re
not long three silver stocks for nothing.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): More drill results from Berenguela last week, with AAG reporting
23 holes that were mostly infilling work required to improve knowledge of the deposit. Normally
not the sort of drill assay NR that results in a barnstorming market reaction, but AAG traded
well enough on the news (2). The company decided to highlight three holes at the top of the
NR…
 AFD071 intersected 23.6m @ 319g/t Ag + 2.19% Cu + 17.43% Mn from 2.6m down hole
 AFD109 intersected 27.4m @ 187g/t Ag + 0.97% Cu + 5.13% Mn from surface including an
intercept of 5.6m @ 410g/t Ag + 1.21% Cu + 5.81% Mn from 10.45m downhole.
 AFD111 intersected 10.1m @ 273g/t Ag + 0.90% Cu + 4.11% Mn from surface
…but for me, pick of the bunch was AFD066
that wasn’t exactly a step-out, but did hit
new and thick mineralization in a sparsely
drilled zone of the project with high levels of
manganese (the metal that turns this
project’s economics from reasonable to very
strong). Hole #66 went through four zones
“characterized by massive MnO
replacement” and its results are seen in this
screenshot from company literature, with
thick zones of high Mn and Cu grades. Not
the easiest NR to pick a representative
visual though, AAG isn’t pandering for non-
geos like me and to get the full idea of the
drill results, you need to check out the
entire 18 page PDF on show. This NR also
brought a reminder of the long-term mining
history of this zone, as the drills also went
through two 1m voids created by historic
mining works (the best place to look for a
mine, they say). The Mn component is the
baselines of our bet here and why this desk
finally decided to pick up some shares, it’s also the
peg upon which Eric Sprott is promoting and
justifying his purchases (much larger than mine, it
hardly needs saying).
In trading, AAG did well enough up to Friday and
peaked for the second week running at 60c before
the sector-wide Friday selling dumped it back down
to its 54c close. That’s not a concern and if
anything, its trading on Friday was a net positive as
it showed once again that the previous ceiling at
(just over) 50c is now a solid floor.
Orecap (OCI.v): We haven’t run the tracking table for a couple of weeks, so…
10

OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.78 0.50 5.89 2.4
ARIC.v 7.39 0.53 3.92 1.6
ARIC warrant 4.17 0.33 1.38 0.6
XXIX.v 39.097 0.125 4.89 2.0
MERG.v 5.125 0.035 0.18 0.1
MERG warrant 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.0
MIS.cse 24.709 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 16.99 6.9
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 18.19 7.3c
At 247.714 S/O
Both ARIC and AE have picked up some bids, the extra penny added to XXIX helps as well. The
total without its early stage land holdings (including that tailings project) comes to 73.c this
weekend, which means the arb to open market is back above 20%. OCI traded at 6c nearly all
week, one person willing to pay 6.5c. This is a cheap stock and all it would take is a run on
ARIC, AE or even XXIX to prove my point.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): MAI traded to 35c last week and attracted some modest
accumulation without ever being in the front rank of movers as the gold market surged ahead.
Fortunately and by the same token, it wasn’t in the front rank of losers when gold reversed on
Friday and dragged them all down, with MAI just dropping a penny and finishing the week
slightly up.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The long…the very long-awaited edition in which I report my RIO.v position
in the green has to wait for at least another weekend (and may be more), but that’s okay
because I’ll never begrudge someone taking a profit in a junior, no matter whether I disagree
with their decision or not. A large-ish seller into the Friday morning bell set the tone for that
day and knocked RIO.v shares back down to the lowest prices since the company’s official
construction start ceremony.
The thing to like about RIO.v at the moment is its volume,
trading well on most days and with high volume on
occasional days, it’s now firmly on the radar of sector
observers as a real alternative for gold speculators. For sure
I’d like it to be higher as quickly as possible, but only
because I’m fully bought in (and greedy and mean), but if it
decides to consolidate at or around this new 75c to 80c
range I have no particular problem.
PS: In a brief conversation last week, company chair Alex
Black confirmed that RIO.v would not be attending any of the conference jollities coming up
soon, preferring to keep the nose to the grindstone and focus on building the mine. That suits
me down to the ground, the last thing we need is some major or Tier 2 trying to buy out the
company before Fenix matures and equities approach something akin to true asset value. With
other stocks “newsflow” and “buzz” is important, in the case of RIO.v the exact opposite is true.
The less fuss and noise here in 2025, the better.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): Somebody
somewhere picked up a bargain on Wednesday
afternoon when SRL traded down to 8.5c, but apart
from that the stock remained solid at the 9.5c level
all week, which is reasonable under the
circumstances. I’d argue that this is the easiest
Ecuador mining stock to own through the next two
months and the run-off campaign (see below in
Regional Politics) as its free carry El
11

Domo/Curipamba has its permits, its capex funding it needs and can ignore the hoo-hah by just
getting on with the job of building the mine. However, I’d also quickly agree that we’re unlikely
to see the buyout for SRL’s 15% appear before the election is defined.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Not only delivering
on production, but also on price performance, as ARG
continues to move up in lockstep with spot copper
(HG00 chart right) and make all its moves. We remind
readers that ARG reports its Q4 on February 26th, with
the conference call the next day. We’ll also get the
standard dividend declaration and while ARG isn’t
about to up the basic payment from 3c, the way
copper has launched higher leaves the company plenty
of room to declare a special divi declaration the same
day. We shall see.
The Copper Basket
After seven weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 5.55% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 593.62 2.16 51.0%
2 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 377.21 2.22 16.8%
3 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 375.14 0.125 -3.8%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 148.409 308.69 2.08 41.5%
5 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 305.72 1.90 15.2%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 266.77 2.14 4.4%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 154.00 0.75 1.4%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 134.30 0.53 -3.6%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 102.97 0.68 1.5%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 83.73 0.50 -27.5%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 56.32 0.47 -25.4%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 32.25 0.125 13.6%
13 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 21.75 0.62 3.3%
14 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 83.164 15.80 0.19 18.8%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 13.69 0.24 -23.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 5.55%
The Copper Basket was a mixed bag last week,
The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
but there were enough springers and zingers 8.0%
mixed into the ten winners (ALDE.v, TMQ.to, 7.0%
6.0%
REG.v, ASCU.to, FDY.to, AE.v, HCH.v, XXIX.v,
5.0%
KBX.cse, PM.cse) to counter the drag of the five
4.0%
losers (ATX.v, SOLG.to, BIG.v, ECU.v, LBC.v by
3.0%
droppers and laggards and add 3.73% to the
2.0%
average for the best weekend so far in 2025. The
1.0%
difference came from the four double figure 0.0%
percentage winners, namely Pampa Metals -1.0% source: IKN calcs
(PM.cse up 18.8%), Hot Chili (HCH.v up 15.3%), Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th 16th
Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 14.4%) and XXIX Metal
(XXIX.v up 13.6%).
12

The juniors had enough in reserves to stay positive after the metal’s reversal on Friday, as seen
in this ten-day chart. It was a weird one and for once, I’m not using a curated trade report to
explain it away because nobody seems to have a decent explanation aside from “profit takng”
or “Trump has them worried” and these days, nobody wants to hold geopolitically sensitive
vehicles through the weekend because we don’t know what he’s going to come up with next.
Or something like that.
However, underlying fundies for copper
remained good no matter that Friday metals
dump and earlier in the week, data from
China showed better than expected new bank
credit in China as that government starts to
make good on its soft stimulus measures and
businesses begin to react.
More big moves to report in this week’s look
at world copper inventories, data from
Cochilco:
 Another big aggregate add, with the
three official systems adding a total of 53,818 metric tonnes (mt) this week to close at
576,827mt. That means stocks have risen by over 133kmt since China came back from
its New Year festivities and while that’s not out of the realms of the normal, it’s a
sizeable move in the first two weeks of the 2025 grind for its factories and end-users.
 Unsurprisingly, the SHFE stocks was again ground zero for the stock-ups and added
45,464mt on the week, its total this weekend 230,281mt. They’re not messing around
this year and as the charts below may suggest, we’re on track for a total somewhere
above 300mkt at the top of the run.
 However this time LME copper moved in tandem with SHFE and added back nearly all
the tonnage lost the week before. Stocks backing up the world’s main price discovery
market added 7,600mt to close Friday at 255,225mt, with 8,475mt going into Asia
warehouses and small draws countering a little in Europe and The Americas.
 And we get the trifecta this week, as the modest 754mt addition to Comex stocks
completes our card. Stocks in its North American based warehouse system (mostly New
Orleans, some Houston area, some Los Angeles) stand at a beefy 91,321mt.
The dedicated SHFE charts shows the speed of the additions this year, with the thicker black
line to the left of our annual comparative chart zooming higher quickly and following the tracer
of 2023 and (the infamous) 2020 fairly closely, those years brining early moves. We now watch
to see where it tops out.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
As for the long-term analogue chart, the new spike forming on the right-hand side is a violently
quick move, comparable only to early 2023 (so far)

Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von ht62
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on just three of the basket component stocks this week:
Element 29 (ECU.v): This 2024 hotpot has gone off the boil somewhat, so it may be time to
revisit and consider its potential. Those looking for a new idea that haven’t considered ECU.v to
date may want to check out the new Q&A video published by the company last week (8) with
the prosaic title “What's Ahead for Element 29 in
2025? - Richard Osmond” in which CEO Richard
Osmond goes over…yes, you’ve guessed
it…what’s ahead for ECU.v this year. The Q&A is
pitched at a general business audience and
doesn’t cover much that close watchers won’t
already know, but a couple of lines stand out.
Firstly on the recently drilled Elida project in the
North of Peru, Osmond says, “We want to try
and de-risk the project to the level where we’d
have a major/or mid-tier come in.” Secondly, at
Flor de Cobre Osmond had news on the
Atravesado target, i.e. the target that they’ve
most wanted to drill for a couple of years but to
date had been held back by permits. They now have the community green light and in
Osmond’s words, “It’s going to get drilled some time this year.” That’s good news and another
reason to consider this stock at these prices.
Hot Chili (HCH.v): HCH jumped last week on the back
of the latest NR, “Hot Chili Confirms Major Cu-Au
Porphyry Discovery at La Verde”
With two holes from the target as seen to the South of
its most advanced Productora and Cortadera deposits
returning decent grades of 308m of 0.5% Cu, 0.3 g/t
and 362m 0.3% Cu, 0.1g/t Au respectively. The news
got its positive response, but it soon started to fade as
the real driver of this company has to be the feas study
coming soon and La Verde is not going to form part of
that plan. I continue to find this stock easy to ignore at
this valuation and expect it will raise more working cap
by selling shares soon.

XXIX Metal (XXIX.v): The “Glass Half Full” argument
for XXIX in last week’s edition ended by highlighting the
case “…for picking some up at this 11c price and flipping
them back when 13c shows again, as history tells us it
will.” And while it’s still firmly stuck inside its recent
trading range, its move last week fits the pattern. It
would need to bust above the 13c line and stay there to
break the recent pattern, which isn’t impossible as seen
in the May 2024 move. But it added over 13% on the
week and that’s not to be sniffed at by fliptraders.
The Producer Basket
After 7 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 13.51% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1152.6 53.64 46.54 25.0%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 47.73 95.85 22.6%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 31.36 17.94 15.7%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 26.57 138.32 17.6%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.34 2.54 4.1%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 2.86 13.98 -6.0%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.30 2.91 17.3%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 2.22 4.47 12.3%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 1.89 6.37 14.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 148.95 1.50 10.08 12.2%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 13.51%
In a week where gold price improved by 0.9% (GLD proxy), the GDX followed the lead set by
bullion and rose 0.5% while the junior-biased GDXJ lost 0.5%, our Producer Basket followed
the GDXJ and we lost more ground against our GDX benchmark. That sucks. The headcount
was balanced with five winners (NEM, GOLD, BTG, EGO, SAND) and five losers (AEM, FNV,
OGC.to, NGD, WDOFF) but the losers were slightly larger on average and that, as Robert Frost
might say, has made all the difference.
As such, our worst ever start to a year continues and while being up by 13.5% might look good
to you, it’s awful news to me on seeing the gap that’s grown to GDX.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
30% comparative to GDX control 1 9 0 % % GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
8%
25%
7%
20% ikn 6%
gdx control 5%
15% 4%
3%
10% 2%
1%
5% 0%
source: IKN calcs
0%
Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th 16th
Agnico Eagle (AEM): Once upon a time, the Barrick and the Newmont quarters were the
most eagerly awaited in town but these days, the feeling seems to be more about Agnico Eagle
15
ts1naJ ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

(AEM), the big Tier 1 winner over the last couple of years. AEM dropped its 2024 YE and Q4
financials on Thursday evening (5) and as expected, profits were nothing short of excellent:
AEM: Revenues from mining operations vs
production costs, per qtr
16
7.5231
7.166
1.1851
6.756
7.9441
1.756
7.4831
9.666
7.9051
1.356
2.8171
3.347
4.2461
4.957
6.6571
5.777
8.9281
6.387
6.6702
0.277
6.5512
7.387
7.3222
9.647
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 800
600 400
200
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
Revs
COGS
source: company filings
We’re not doing a deep dive on AEM (or any other large producer, for that matter) as there are
plenty of other places to read the standard coverage reports. Instead we update the same
charts seen on these pages in 2024 that highlight the excellent (no other word) revenue and
margins generated by modern AEM. Above shows the U$2.2237Bn (with a B) in top line
revenues, driven of course by the gold price improvement (which suggests there is more to
come in 1q25), but for me even more impressive was the COGS item. At U$746.9m, 4q24
returned the lowest costs number since 2q23 and there are very few mining companies of any
size who can claim such a tight control of its costs, let alone one this large with so many
moving parts.
The result of the revs up/costs down combo is more clearly shown in the following charts.
Below left operating margins of U$1.477Bn represents U$2.97 per-share (8X to this weekend,
to save you a job). But what really catches my eye is the way in which the percentage of gross
margins over operating margin because, at 66.4% there’s no other major in the same league.
AEM: Operating margin, per qtr
However and despite the sparkling quarter, AEM
dropped hard at the bell on Friday and ended
down 4.92% on the day. For sure a bit of unlucky
timing to have reported your quarter and created
the normal liquidity event on the very day gold’s
bull run went into reverse, but it was still a clear
reaction to the results.
The reason for the share price weakness on Friday
was for other reasons. Include:
 Reserves replacement of +1m oz wasn’t
amazing. Nothing truly wrong there, but it
didn’t sparkle.
87.672 18.765 06.355 52.235 06.155 91.825 64.484
59.366 24.329 26.297 48.717 25.658 49.479 00.388 91.979
42.6401 46.4031 69.1731 48.6741
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m AEM: operating margin as percentage
of gross revenues, per qtr
source: company filings
%7.94 %9.75 %6.95 %0.65 %0.65 %7.35 %9.05 %1.05 %4.85 %7.45 %8.15 %7.65 %7.65 %8.35 %7.55 %2.75 %8.26 %6.36 %4.66
70%
60%
50%
40% 30%
20%
10%
0%
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings, IKN calcs

 No increase in dividend. Compared to peers (e.g. FNV), the way AEM has refused to
up its dividend to shareholders during these bonanza quarters is beginning to irk.
There isn’t much outright complaining, but instos will start favouring better divi
payers at the moment to allocate capital.
 But the main reason is guidance. For that, we excerpt from page 35 of the annual
report:
This time last year, AEM guided its 2024 for “between 3.35 to 3.55 million ounces”, so the
eventual 3.49m the range nicely. However, its three-year guidance has been trimmed by 100k
oz all round, with 2027 added and given the same number. So one negative is the slight
downgrade in guidance (but frankly, it’s a minor thing against what the gold price might do) but
the overall optic of this production chart is equally important:
AEM: Annual gold production and three year guidance
17
417.1 726.1 287.1 737.1 680.2
531.3 044.3 584.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5 1
0.5
0
7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 e5202 e6202 e7202
Moz Au
source: company filings
This is the chart of a mining company that screams “mature”. After buying production into the
fold with the merger of Kirkland Lake in 2022 and improving production in other places, we’ve
now had two years of three point four million and bits production years and with the slight
downgrade of forward production announced on Thursday, it’s what we have in store for the
next three years. Of course there’s nothing wrong with that, especially as the fortunate timing
of the bull gold run means AEM only has to stand still in order to make even more money in the
quarters to come. However and it must be said, AEM now swims on the waters of the largest
insto and fund manager desks, the type of audience that constantly asks “what’s next?” and if
those plans do not include clearly defined growth, they’ll look elsewhere.
The AEM quarter has been a central subject of debate over at TwitterX (6) and I’m sympathetic
to the pro-AEM arguments offered by others, for example they can now over-deliver or how
their cash generation ability still makes it an attractive core holding. However, the best days of
explosive growth are now probably behind the stock until such time it makes its next move. As
one highly experienced mining professional with deep knowledge of AEM’s stomping ground put
it to me in a private conversation (and yes, A. Reader, I’m quoting you verbatim and have the
evidence to prove it ):
And now is the time for Agnico to leverage their gains/paper. Sure they’ll chase Cote
and other incremental bumps, but a move might come out of left field, something that
will leapfrog them. They still have a few wonderful assets, they’ve also have a lot of
older dogs. They need something new for the 21st century.
Agreed.

New Gold (NGD): My mistake, I got confused and thought NGD was scheduled to file its 4q24
last week. In fact, that event is due this coming Wednesday Feb 19th post close, with the
ConfCall for Thursday morning (webcast link here (7)). Last week was the announcement of its
updated Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Statement (8) and a look at the comparative
chart of NGD to GDX shows a market nonplussed by what it discovered.
NGD did its best job of putting a positive spin on the new reserve and resource numbers at
both Rainy River and New Afton, and in the case of the latter, the numbers weren’t too bad.
New Afton gold reserves and resources totaled 2.18m oz and copper 1.731m lbs, that's a
reasonable replacement rate and green lights the company plans to double production by 2027.
Moz Au NGD: New Afton gold reserve/resource Mlbs Cu NGD: New Afton copper reserve/resource
3
other gold resource 2.2 other copper resource
2.5 Gold reserve 2 copper reserve
1.8
2 1.6
1.4
1.5 1.182 1.174 1.222 1.35 1.352 1.2 1.003 1.006 1.035 1.147 1.1
1
1 0.8
0.6
0.5 0.958 0.883 0.804 0.735 0.828 0.4 0.758 0.675 0.607 0.735 0.631
0.2
0 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
source: company filings source: company filings
The issues came with the Rainy River reserves and resources as after a well-publicized resource
expansion and development program at the mine, the
total of 3.42m oz is less than 200k higher than the 2023 Moz Au NGD: Rainy River gold reserve/resource
5
total. What's more, the reserves number dropped by other gold resource
4.5
almost 300k oz, i.e. the mined gold in 2024. 4 Gold reserve
3.5 2.005 1.543
1.501
3
NGD recently made noises about its confidence to prove 0.837 1.294
2.5
up more ounces at Rainy River and extend its mine life 2
more considerably: the current resource gets it to 2032, 1.5 1 2.598 2.799 2.493 2.421 2.126
but that's still not much by modern standards for a large, 0.5
open pit operation. The market expected more than it 0
got from Rainy River last week and the stock price 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
source: company filings
moved accordingly, it's now up to the company to
impress us on its Q4 financials this coming week.
The TinyCaps List
After 7 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 3.17% to level stakes:
18

company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 13.39 0.10 -41.2%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 18.35 0.13 -10.3%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 11.38 0.115 -11.5%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 23.56 0.135 -6.9%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 35.68 0.47 20.5%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 8.20 0.085 6.3%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 236.796 35.52 0.15 15.4%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 15.57 0.145 70.6%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 23.69 0.45 -18.2%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 118.384 17.76 0.15 7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 3.17%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the
window a little and allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Despite the basic headcount being slightly against
TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
the bulls, with four winners (KDK.v, MOG.v, RDU.v, 5%
VAU.v), five losers (BRO.v, ELY.v, EDG.v, LMS.v, 4%
3%
STS.v) and one unchanged stock (CN.v), the basket
2%
average improved by a touch over 2% on the week
1%
thanks to the bigger percentage winners such as
0%
Radius (RDU.v up 11.5%) and Kodiak (KDK.v up
-1%
11.9%). All other stock moves were reasonably
-2%
modest. source: IKN calcs, TSX data
-3%
Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th 16th
Electrum Discovery (ELY.v): Brought into the 2025
list after a suggestion from one of you out there, since
then, I’ve had a good handful of unsolicited comments
about this stock and its decent risk reward potential
from people I’d highly doubt know each other. It ran
in late 2024 and in the first weeks of January, but
recent weeks have seen it go somewhat off the boil
and now may be the time for the value hunters. Not
least, for this (9):
Vancouver, Canada, January 29, 2025 – Electrum
Discovery Corp. (“Electrum” or the “Company“)
(TSX-V:ELY |FRA:R8N |OTC:ELDCF) is pleased to
announce the commencement of its maiden diamond drill program at the Timok East
copper-gold project (“Timok East“) in Eastern Serbia.
ELY is putting two 500m holes into its project so if we do the rough math, the first hole should
be on its way to the assay lab and that means four, perhaps six weeks for the first results.
Along with keeping a pulse on the tinycaps sector, this is why we include interesting companies
after all.
19

Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): Once upon a time, KDK was a junior with a hefty market cap and
momentum. Despite its downgrading, KDK is still a copper exploreco with a big exploration
target and it’s still part of discovery Group, a big and successful umbrella (Great Bear etc), so
seeing it rally with the price of copper shouldn’t be such a surprise. With the year’s biggest
conference and marketing season about to kick off (let’s
call PDAC the centerpiece, but there are dozens of
satellites these days) KDK may be a good way of getting
that over-used “leverage to copper” (and might turn out to
be a better pick than my own Surge Copper (SURG.v), see
Stocks to Follow. With the only other double figure
percentage winner this week Radius Gold (RDU.v),
creating buzz with its Peru copper target (see last week),
copper seems to be the right place for a near-term bet.
You don’t have to be in love with Kodiak (and I’m not) to
eke a winning trade from the stock and as the long-term
chart shows, its spiky nature makes for quick differences.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
The Ecuador Presidential run-off campaign begins
Further to the coverage in IKN821 last weekend, we now have as close to a final total as makes
the odds and with 99.9% of ballots now official, the scores are
 Daniel Noboa (ADN): 44.16%
 Luisa González (RC): 43.98%
 Leonidas Iza (MUPP): 5.25%
 Andrea González: 2.69%
 Henry Kronfle: 0.72%
 Perdro Granja: 0.53%
 None of the other 10 candidates got more than 0.4%
So with over 9m votes cast for the front two and just 18,844 votes separating them, it is indeed
a technical dead heat as we enter the run-off phase. The first thing to mention is its length, as
there’s eight weeks between us and the run-off voting day of April 13th which will make it less
of a sprint than the first round and more time to develop arguments, counterclaims, campaigns
etc. There are several sub-texts around the upcoming campaign that we won’t go into too
deeply here (unless necessary in the weeks ahead), the last thing you need is two months of
tiny details filling up space here but we will mention before getting to the main course of
today’s note that Noboa has reacted with a cabinet re-shuffle, changing several ministers and
making “we are listening, we are on your side” noises to the country.
However, we do have full resolution now about the make-up of the new Congress (called an
Asemblea in Ecuador, this visual gives most of the need-to-know:
20

That’s an interesting split, as it gives the party political arm of the CONAIE indigenous pressure
group, Pachakutik, significant power. With 151 seats, a simple majority is achieved at 76 votes
and to the right, we have Noboa’s AND party + the centre-right leaning PSC combining for a
total of 70 votes, with the Rafael Correa/Luisa González RC party on 67. In other words, the
nine Pachakutik seats gives that party a de fatco casting vote for any project that doesn’t need
a 2/3rds majority for passage (i.e. most of them outside of Constitutional change).
Keep that in mind as we move to what the potential kingmaker in the run-off election, CONAIE
leader Leonidas Iza, had to say last week. The first was to reject any suggestion of forming an
alliance with Daniel Noboa and his ADN party. There’s no way either he or Pachakutik is going
to team up with Noboa in the run-off and to make sure the message got through, Iza in his first
formal interview after last weekend’s result made it clear what he thought of the current
President and his admin (10) (translated):
“What I’ve heard is the Daniel Noboa team insulting us, calling us terrorists yesterday. I believe they
have some very sick political beliefs, with a certain amount of fascism. From our side, we haven’t
offered any reaction.”
No love lost there, however (and as noted briefly last weekend), there has been plenty of bad
blood between Iza/CONAIE and Rafael Correa’s party over the years, too. Another translation
from the same interview:
“We have not forgotten the aggression from Correa, or from Lucio Gutiérrez, nor from Abdala, nor
from Lenin Moreno, nor from Guillermo Lasso, nor from the current President.”
Politically, CONAIE/Pachakutik is more aligned to the Left leaning RC party and under normal
circumstances, they’d make fairly natural allies. But this is Ecuador where nothing is normal and
CONAIE/Pachakutik has plenty against the RC party of Rafael Correa and Luisa González,
starting with the way CONAIE members were thrown into jail during the Correa presidency for
protesting against civil works projects imposed in their territories (and one of the main bones of
contention was the Mirador copper mine). However, the early signals between the two sides
suggest they may be able to come to an agreement and if so, Luisa will be in a strong position
going into the run-off. To begin, Luisa González opening gambit was to ask her followers “…to
stop referring to the her party’s political line using the established slang word “Correa-ism”
(correísmo) and “to call it 21st Century Socialism.” (11). Iza got the message and responded in
a public declarations, saying that “If we’re going to talk then it should be with you (Luisa) and
not with Rafael Correa (or with you representing Correa).” Then when Rafael Correa himself
stuck his oar in and berated Iza for remaining neutral in 2021, thereby letting Guillermo Lasso
win that run-off vote (against RC candidate Andrés Arauz), Iza was ready with his response:
“We’re in 2025, not 2105 and history is a dialectic process. You asked about political neutrality,
we remember the aggression in indigenous territories and against rural populations in Ecuador
that were for the benefit of the government and rich groups, including the Nobis Group (the
Noboa family investment arm), that ended with putting Moreno in as President. You want more
history? Be sure I could make you remember many more things (that you as President did
against us).”
There’s no love lost between Iza and Correa, but Iza understands his new position of power
and seems to be willing to at least sit down and talk with candidate González and the RC party.
When addressing his CONAIE party colleagues last week, he said (12):
“We’re not going to decide between Daniel Noboa and Rafael Correa, we’re going to decide
between Daniel Noboa and Luisa González”, and “We’re going to make a thoughtful decision, while
considering the social democracy (of the RC party and the left) and the right wing (of Noboa).”
That’s the sound of a party leader getting his faithful ready to agree to an alliance with RC and
Luisa González, however bad their distaste may be for its founder and spiritual leader Rafael
Correa. That in turn bad news for sitting President Noboa and we need to be clear-eyed, it’s
also a negative for bets on Ecuador’s mining industry, at least in the near-term. While the RC
party is ostensibly pro-mining on a national level, two things play against the mining sector if
Iza/CONAIE team up with Luisa González/RC:
21

 FDI optics: The investment world won’t like the idea of a lefty government in power in
Ecuador and even if it turns out to be reasonably investor-friendly after a while (see Boric
in Chile, see Lula in Brazil), it’ll take time before money is convinced.
 Any deal cut with CONAIE: One thing is to sit down and talk, another is to reach
agreement and you can be sure that Pachakutik/CONAIE/Iza will go to the table with their
firmly established and deeply held anti-mining agenda high on the list of priorities.
To round off this Kingmaker overview, Iza and CONAIE stated that they would discuss the
matter internally and would come to a decision by March 15th, at which point we’ll know how
the run-off is shaping. One final factor that must come into play is the future of Rafael Correa:
Iza’s long-term enmity toward him counts, because the right sort of deal with Luisa/RC would
relegate him to the sidelines and make sure he doesn’t make a full comeback in Ecuador
politics. For sure he’s bound to make his triumphant reappearance in Quito if Luisa wins and
have all charges against him dropped, but it’s likely Iza would want assurances that the RC
party had modernized and left its past (and past leaders behind). And frankly, that may also
suit Luisa González, as a President-Elect that could finally move from out of the shadow of her
mentor and become the undisputed leader of the pack (with Rafael demoted to an advisory
role, or some-such).
Conclusion: I’ve gone on a bit longer than expected on Leonidas Iza, but the election result at
both presidential and Congressional level has aligned his party as the obvious kingmaker and
while a deal with Daniel Noboa isn’t going to happen, reading between the lines last week it’s
obvious that Luisa González and Leonidas Iza aren’t far from reaching an alliance that would
boost her chances in April considerably. There’s not 100% adherence in Ecuador politics and, as
outlined last week, we may not even see the people who voted RC/Luisa last weekend vote the
same way in the second round, but on strict numbers it doesn’t take a genius to realize that
Luisa’s 43.98% and Iza’s 5.25% puts her very close to the winning line. CONAIE’s support
wouldn’t come for free however, that’s where it gets complicated for mining FDI as the
indigenous opposition to mining would suddenly have a significant fulcrum to use against the
development of mining in the country, particularly in the most hotly contested projects such as
Loma Larga (DPM.to) or Warintza (SLS.to). We’ve been over this argument several times
before, no re-treads required today and as noted above in Stocks to Follow, I’m comfortable
about holding through on Salazar (SRL.v) as its existential risk factor if González pulls off the
win is much lower than that of other companies in the same circumstances (once you’re
permitted and building, life changes).
The bottom line is simple: The surprisingly strong showing by González last weekend coupled
with the overtures between her and Leonidas Iza have made this Ecuador election run-off too
close to call at this stage in proceedings. A key moment arrives in mid-March when CONAIE/Iza
decide whether to form an alliance with RC/Luisa (and if so under what terms) and the column
inches I’ve dedicated this weekend to her side of the story may make her out to be a likely
winner if that deal is struck. That is not the case. Despite the close result and the political
maneuvers this week, President Noboa still holds plenty of political advantages and the power
of the executive on your side in a close race should not be underestimated. He and his team
will bang the Luisa = Correa drum for all its worth, they have a full two months to do so, he’s
already a canny politico despite his relative youth and in 2023 he had no problem in moving
toward the political centre to capture floating voters. Neither should we blandly assume Iza’s
5.25% is a solid unshakeable bloc of votes, as anyone who’s read our notes on Ecuador over
the years will know that internal divisions and political intrigue is as much a part of CONAIE as
anywhere else. Two months is a long time in any political campaign, let alone one in South
America and as such, the only honest forecast at this point is no forecast. Ecuador’s presidential
election result surprised most watchers, me included, and my confidence of a Noboa win going
in has changed. This race is too close to call.
Market Watching
Lumina Gold (LUM.v): A idea whose time has come?
22

The main feature in IKN821, LUM had quite a week:
Be clear, this move is nothing to do with me and my report on the company, it’s not uncommon
to see the focus of unrelated people converge on a company and LUM sub-50c in this gold
environment looked particularly cheap. Saying that, +28% over two trading weeks is a strong
move by any measure and before the Friday selling came along, LUM was up by 40% compared
to two Mondays ago. Even if we consider last week in isolation and include the Friday selling,
it’s a +12.7% move and with a clear acceleration of volume early week.
So a strong move by LUM, but that doesn’t mean all the value has disappeared. The best prices
may have vanished (or they may not have, wouldn’t be the first time a junior goes overbought
then oversold), but as we sketched out last week (e.g. chart right) a working mine at Cangrejos
would be a massive moneyspinner and there’s
Operating EPS at three sample share counts plenty of bandwidth left in this share price if
1.60
the story moves forward this year. I’m going
1.40
to continue to take the chicken’s route and
1.20
wait on the outcome of the Ecuador election 0.99
1.00 0.87
run-off (see above and last week), but seeing
0.80
a big move from LUM wasn’t a surprise last
0.60 0.43 0.50
week. 0.40
0.20 0.29 0.33
Finally (and as noted in the intro section 0.00
today), the amount of unsolicited feedback to
last week’s note was a pleasant surprise (and
perhaps another hint that LUM is a stock
whose time has come). Among the mailers,
DMmers and WhatsAppers* I had one conversation with a market professional who will remain
unnamed, but has notable and ongoing knowledge of LUM and the Cangrejos project. I asked
said person to tell me where my article got it wrong and got three points. Useful for me, useful
for you:
1) Incorrectly, I assumed mature throughput at 70k tonnes per day (tpd), however the
company expects 80ktpd.
2) I went with the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) model, which includes a three stage growth
program. However and since then, LUM has stated publicly that they plan to model the
project at Feasibility Study level with throughput starting at 40,000 tpd, then going to
80,000 tpd in a single expansion phase. This will increase font-end capex (of course),
but the ramp to higher throughput levels should improve model economics.
3) They used U$3.75/lb copper for the by-product credits in the PFS. I used U$3.00/lb
(and for what it’s worth, spotted my own error during the writing stage but was stupid
enough not to make the alterations.
Those data will help when it comes to generating a target price, assuming of course Noboa
does what I expect him to do in April.
*Want me on your WhatsApp? Just ask for the number.
23
0002 0012 0022 0032 0042 0052 0062 0072 0082 0092 0003 0013 0023 0033 0043 0053
op EPS
500m S/O
1Bn S/O
1.5Bn S/O
gold price

Hecla Mining (HL) misses guidance
A component of The Producer Basket in 2024, Hecla Mining (HL) made the list last year in order
to add exposure to silver, but come the moment to put the 2025 basket together HL didn’t
make the cut. I explained the decision in IKN815 including these words:
“It was always a risk to include a perennial under-
achiever in the 2024 mix and for a while it paid off
(up over 40% at the end of Q3), but HL went back
to its bad old ways in 4q24 and I don’t want to
leave my basket open to the same type of risk this
year.”
You can see how badly HL sold off in 4q24 in this 12-
month price chart, with U$7 share prices in September
and October becoming U$5 prices by the end of the
year and while the metals market didn’t help by flat-
lining in that period, the true problems were all of HL’s
doing. Before the start of 2024, HL guided its 2024 to
produce between 17.5m and 18.5m oz silver. When it
became clear it wasn't going to reach that number,
guidance was dropped to between 16.5m and 17.5m oz. So far so normal, but after its weak Q3
the company didn't adjust guidance any further, implying that it would at least make the
bottom end of guidance.
HL: Silver production, per qtr
24
954.3 525.3 676.2 722.3 523.3 546.3 945.3 466.3 140.4 338.3 435.3 639.2 291.4 854.4 546.3 578.3
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Moz Ag
source: company filings
Instead, its 3.875m oz silver as produced in 4q24 and reported last week only move the annual
total to 16.17m oz and meant HL missed for 2024, not just the original guidance low end of
17.5m oz, but the downwardly adjusted 16.5m oz guidance, even when HL had all the time and
reason to warn at the time of that very poor Q3. Add in the bad timing of reporting a poor Q4
on the day gold and silver go into reverse and the result
is as seen on this 2025 YTD chart. A stock that tracked
the median, then dropped 14.6% on the news.
Hecla isn’t just an example of a mediocre operator, it’s a
prime example of how poorly mining companies
communicate with the market. It’s not a case of giving
away material secrets, merely trying to be open and
honest with the world about what you’re doing and why
mining is difficult at times. The reaction to the HL Q4
report last week is exactly why I felt uncomfortable
about having the stock in the Producer Basket last year,
even though it didn’t carry a single penny of my own money.
Conclusion
We close IKN822 in normal style, with some bullet points:

 The Barrick trade was modest in size and ambition, but it’s turned out reasonably well.
If you’re holding for greater things in the near or medium-term future I wish you the
best of fortune.
 That Barrick cash finds an immediate use though, as Surge Copper is the right place
and price for a speculative addition to my copper portfolio.
 After stating last weekend in the “Keep Dancing” sequel note that I hadn’t noticed any
new rounds of gold top picking happening, the last few days have seen exactly that
with chartists and strategists giving us the “I’m still bullish, but gold needs to rest a
while” line of reasoning. Fallacious thinking and the type of statement that’s oh so easy
to wriggle out of later on (choose from 1) “I was right” 2) “I’m happy I was wrong” 3)
“…but no matter, I’m still a long-term bull”). Ignore them all, keep dancing.
 A smaller edition today, consider me girding my loins for PDAC month.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://erocopper.com/news/ero-copper-announces-2024-production-results-2025-guidance-and-updated-three-year-
production-outlook/
(2) https://aftermathsilver.com/news-releases/aftermath-silver-reports-more-surface-high-grade-silver-and-copper-
results/
(3) https://www.hotchili.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2847892.pdf
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QX_t4VfUYs
(5) https://www.agnicoeagle.com/English/investor-relations/financial-information/sec-filings/default.aspx
(6) https://x.com/Mark_IKN/status/1890166083358978543
(7) https://app.webinar.net/nvDNqb8B0py
(8) https://newgold.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/NEW-GOLD-ANNOUNCES-MINE-LIFE-EXTENSION-AT-
BOTH-NEW-AFTON-AND-RAINY-RIVER-OUTLINES-STRONG-FREE-CASH-FLOW-PROFILE-OVER-NEXT-THREE-
YEARS/default.aspx
(9) https://electrumdiscovery.com/electrum-discovery-corp-announces-start-of-drilling-at-its-timok-east-project/
(10) https://www.ntn24.com/noticias-politica/el-equipo-de-daniel-noboa-nos-insulto-leonidas-iza-tercero-en-elecciones-
del-pasado-domingo-habla-sobre-decision-que-tomara-de-cara-a-la-segunda-vuelta-en-ecuador-539279
(11) https://www.msn.com/es-xl/noticias/other/ya-escogieron-la-postura-de-leonidas-iza-y-andrea-gonz%C3%A1lez-
para-la-segunda-vuelta/ar-AA1yVaGB? =1
(12) https://www.primicias.ec/elecciones/ecuador2025/presidenciales/leonidas-iza-respaldo-segunda-vuelta-daniel-
noboa-luisa-gonzalez-89737/
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
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Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
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New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
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Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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