IKN #821Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 821, February 9th 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Dates for your diary, Keep dancing Part Deux.
Fundamental Analysis: An overview of Lumina Gold (LUM.v).
Stocks to Follow: Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to), AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v),
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Salazar (SRL.v), Surge Copper (SURG.v), Amerigo (ARG.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v),
Atex Resources (ATX.v), XXIX.v.
The Producer Basket: Overview, New Gold (NGD): Barrick and Newmont (GOLD) (NEM):
Newmont (NEM) and Agnico (AEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Barksdale (BRO.v), Radius (RDU.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v).
Regional Politics: The Ecuador Presidential election.
Market Watching: Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): A hold/sell call on Feb 23rd
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 The Ecuador Presidential election round one results are in and we now know the battle is
on in the run-off between current President Daniel Noboa on the right of the political
spectrum and the Correista candidate to the left, Luisa González. As we’ve laid out in
recent weeks, this election offers some clear-cut trading opportunities for mining
company stocks and while Noboa hasn’t been handed an immediate mandate by his
people, there’s still reason to favour him get the eventual win. I’m happy to hold my
exposure to the country via Salazar Resources (SRL.v) and if things go well, will probably
add more.
 On that subject, today’s main fundamentals section lays out why Lumina Gold (LUM.v) is
an attractive option. I’ve watched this company for years without ever biting, but on a
slowly-but-surely basis it has developed its Cangrejos gold/copper project in South
Ecuador and now, with the country’s political backdrop moving in favour of mining, it’s a
beneficiary at the right time and an eventual Noboa win would make this a clear buy.
The dog ate my homework
As truth is stranger than fiction, four reasons why this week’s edition is another late arrival
followed by a confession that matters a little more.
 A nearly 3yo and a 10 month old came down with a bug this weekend, with the near 3yo
leaving his kindergarten in perfect health Friday lunchtime and running a high temperature
just three hours later. For what it’s worth, they both woke up 100% on Monday morning, the
eldest went to kindergarten as per normal, his teacher will think he had a normal weekend
 Starting Sunday afternoon, the two grown-ups in the house came down with the same bug.
It’s not a nice one, and this Monday evening we’re still both hacking away and sweating.
Added to the lack of sleep on Friday and Saturday due to the little ones and their issues, it
wasn’t the best of days to write a few thousand words
1

 Also on Sunday afternoon, we had a three hour power cut. That was fun. Then today Monday
we’ve had about half a dozen mini-cuts and WhatsApp images arriving of a local substation
spewing out sparks. Also fun.
 Also Sunday evening (see below), the Ecuador election went from potentially cut and dried to
a close race that needs extra examination and thought. This was the straw that broke the
camel’s back and it would have been a disservice to have dashed off a brief overview of the
Ecuador situation in the mental state I found myself in last night.
The bottom line: If I’m going to Dog Ate My Homework a discerning audience, the best method
is to make it as outlandish as possible and move public opinion to “well, he couldn’t make all
that up so he’s probably telling the truth”. Either that or say nothing and don’t come over all
whiny and excuse-ready, because whining excuses such as the ones today are normally more
annoying than a simple apology. I’m fully aware that you don’t want to know about my
personal life, you’re here for professional and/or business reasons want to read on the junior
mining sector, period, but there comes a point when I have to be honest and get something off
my chest about my personal life that’s been bothering me for a few months. It’s great, truly
wonderful, to be a father of young kids again and I wouldn’t change the life we have here for
anything, but I’m also aware that I’m not coping with the new workload very well and that my
productivity in writing The IKN Weekly is being affected. It’s not a coincidence that since #2
came along I’ve delayed publication of several editions of The IKN Weekly and while this
weekend really was a confluence of many adverse factors (yes indeed, all the above is true), I
know I need to make changes in my own habits and work patterns to get back to the regular,
send-it-Sunday rhythm this publication enjoyed for its first 15 years of life. That’s what I have
for you at this point; I’m aware of the problem and I’m trying to find a lasting solution.
Dates for your diary
First and foremost, this coming Friday is Valentine’s Day. Don’t forget. Aside that, this coming
Wednesday Feb 12th has two events for readers of this publication so in some kind of order:
Pre-bell Wednesday we have the January US CPI reading and, according to those that monitor
these things (1), “consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The
consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.” An uptick
in US inflation is already baked into market expectations, but it’s bound to provide grist for the
mill of the second date to consider this week.
Then Starting Wednesday 12th (and continuing Thursday 13th) Fed Chair Jerome Powell
appears before the US House Financial Services Committee at his regular date, the “Semiannual
Monetary Policy Report to Congress, at which he’s forced to explain sophisticated financial
matters to audience that’s 98% financially illiterate but trying hard to make it look otherwise.
And the other 2% is Rand Paul, who’ll disagree with anything Jay says. Anyway, my flippancy
aside the double day grilling of the Fed head by elected representatives is good for Fed
accountability and sometimes throws up a phrase or thought that moves the markets. That
seems more likely in the current rarefied atmosphere, too.
Keep dancing Part Deux
"As long as the music is playing, you've got
to get up and dance. We're still dancing.”
Chuck Prince, CEO Citigroup, July 2007
Though “Keep dancing til the music stops” existed in market talk long before Chuck Prince,
these days it’s now mostly connected to him as, in 2007, the CEO of Citigroup dropped it into
an (in)famous interview with the FT while staring into a deteriorating financial backdrop. As for
The IKN Weekly, “Keep Dancing” showed up far more modestly a month ago in the intro to
IKN816 dated January 5th when commenting on the sudden spate of top-pickers in gold. That
note included these words among others:
“…if there’s one lesson I’ve learned over the years it’s not to leave the dance
floor until the music stops and gold at over U$2,600/oz isn’t just some pleasant
background elevator muzak.”
2

“Forecasting gold is difficult at the best of times, trying to pick its top during a
historic bull run is harder by an order of magnitude.”
“Go with the trend, it is your friend and it’s exactly why I’m entering 2025
almost fully bought in…”
More of that talk where it came from and of course, since then we haven’t had to be satisfied
with gold at a mere U$2,600/oz:
[EDIT]: I took advantage of the publication delay and added the chart data for
Monday Feb 10th, what with U$2,900/oz being broken this morning
A most impressive move and one that does indeed smack of systemic weakness showing in
other parts of the world financial system (it’s the reason to own gold, after all). So, even though
I haven’t witnessed a new round of gold top-pickers while surveying the airwaves this week, it’s
worth a reminder this weekend that “Keep Dancing” is still the best course of action.
As for our friend Chuck, we should also note that four months after saying that famous line and
on the other side of the GFC meltdown, he resigned as CEO and Chair of Citigroup. Though he
did take U$38m in severance pay with him, bless his heart.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
An overview of Lumina Gold (LUM.v)
Today’s main fundies section is an overview of a company that’s had one of the longest
gestation periods I know of in the South American gold exploreco scene. On my radar for
almost as long as I’ve been writing The IKN Weekly, up to about a year ago Lumina Gold
(LUM.v) (or its old previous corporate title, Odin Mining and Exploration) was a relatively easy
pass even though its main Cangrejos project always had scale and is part of the Ross Beaty’s
empire with all the benefits that brings. However, as sometimes happens in this sector, LUM
and its Cangrejos project now seems to be getting its ducks into line and the combination of
positive factors, along with one obvious market advantage, moved it up to our shortlist of
stocks to own, particularly those in Ecuador. We mentioned LUM.v on our shortlist of four
companies in IKN816 five weeks ago and since then it has rallied by around 20%. Those factors
include:
 Ecuador politics: The victory of Daniel Noboa isn’t a certainty, but it’s still the most likely
outcome (see Regional Politics below) and he’d bring a real mandate for its pro-business
policies for the first time. They’d include mining and LUM is in prime position to benefit.
 ESG/CSR: Slowly but surely, the company has reached agreements and understandings
with the key local players around Cangrejos and these days, enjoys one of the better
community relationships among exploration stage projects in Ecuador.
 Metals prices: Cangrejos is large, it’s bulk mining, and while its copper by-product
component brings down operating costs to very competitive levels it still needs a strong
3

gold market and metals prices to justify its large ticket capex. With gold hitting new
heights every week, we’re in the right macro backdrop.
 Development timing: Cangrejos has its PFS published and this year should reach
Feasibility Study stage, at which time the project is ready for its construction decision.
Add those to its market advantage, a share price that hasn’t moved up with the crowd and is
still priced at low levels, and we have the right mix for junior market participants looking to pick
up a true bargain. Preamble over, let’s begin the real work and start with our standard topbox
of corporate structure:
Shares out: 422.587m
Options: 25.49m
Warrants: zero
RSUs: 3.5m
Fully diluted: 451.577m
Current share price: C$0.55
Market Cap: C$232.42m (U$162.7m)
Approx cash per S/O: 1.2c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.70=CAD$1
Put simply, we have a large share count, not many derivatives and not much cash in the
treasury. Under normal circumstances that’s not a great combination but in this case, it’s less of
an issue. Now for details and background, starting with…
Management and insiders
The first person to mention when talking Lumina Gold (LUM.v) is Ross Beaty, the successful
Canadian mining magnate with a string of wins to his name. As at the last official count
(October) Beaty owned 115.33m shares of LUM.v representing 27.7% of shares out. President
and CEO Marshall Koval is one of the long-term Beaty inner circle and owns 11.75m shares.
Aside Koval, the other five directors also include Beaty inner circle names (e.g. Michael
Steinmann of Pan American Silver) and collectively own 14.47m shares. Other shareholders
include an "Ecuadorian Entrepreneurial Group" holding 16.5% of shares out, then Route One
(the same group that sponsors the John Black/Kevin Heather copper explorecos such as
Antares, Regulus and Aldebaran) with 6.1% of shares out. Regarding that Ecuador group, I
understand how they prefer to keep their names out of the limelight but it doesn't mean to say
this is suspect money. Far from it in fact, as most respected business people along the Andean
cordillera prefer as much anonymity as possible. There are logical assumptions and reasonable
guesses as to the IDs, but it’s no biggie either way.
Financials overview
Of lesser concern today, we’ll check over the usual suspect financial charts to get the feel of
how LUM has got to this point and move to more important matters. Starting with the balance
sheet, the total carry is low compared to the market cap as 1) LUM has always expensed its
exploration costs and 2) with the move toward project financing and big name backers already
showing the will to fund the project, there’s no need for them to pack the financials before the
construction decision.
LUM.v: Assets
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
4
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$m LUM.v: Liabilities per qtr
80
fixed 70 other current
60
cash
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
stream liabs a/c payable

The financials go back a very long way in this company but i'm not sure how enlightening its
2015 quarterly results would be for 2025 analyses, so for our purposes we focus on the post-
Covid era. Total assets (above) came to U$19.045m, including just over U$5m in cash (LUM
reports in USD). As for liabilities (above right), the main event are the two stream line items
since the deal with Wheaton Precious Metals included an early line of capital for exploration and
development purposes. Indeed, LUM drew another $6m from the credit line during 4q24. The
deal with WPM is for total upfront payments of U$300m, including early cash of U$48m and
then U$252m once the construction decision is made and underway. LUM has just U$3.1m left
to draw on the early cash facility and with 2025 to
fund, that means it will likely go back to market
and raise capital again before the construction
decision.
As for where the money is spent, the admin
expenses tracking chart does a better job than the
net losses chart, as that is now skewed by the
non-cash financial effects of the WPM loan. LUM
burns nearly all its cash on site in exploration and
evaluation expenses, with a relatively modest
corporate burn. That is good. This next chart
below shows a closer breakdown of those exploration and evaluation expenses, with the
expensive quarters when drilling takes place and engineering and "other", which includes the
CSR team and the legal beagles, major expenses. Overall, LUM focuses its treasury efficiently
on the project and we should expect that to continue in 2025, as it aims for the two major
milestones of 1) the FS due mid-year and 2) the advance of its permitting process, with the key
prior consultancy meetings set for the end of 2025.
LUM: Exploration and Evaluation breakdown
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
5
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
LUM.v: Admin expenses
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
U$m
other
camp
metallurgy
engineering
drilling
source: company filings
Finally, we get to the share count and the long life of LUM (previously Odin) as an exploration
entity means it has sold plenty of shares in its time, but to its credit dilution has been kept
reasonably low in recent years. We calculate shares out as at end 2024 at 422.587m. If LUM
goes the equity route to raise working capital in 2025, that could end at around 470m at the
point it makes the construction decision. However, recent market action on “final raises” has
been bullish and there’s no reason to expect significant headwinds if LUM goes to market (plus,
the backers of this stock are Canadian A-list).
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m
insurance
prof fees
G&A
fees salaries etc
expl&eval
source: company filings
LUM.v: Shares out
616.333 018.333 018.333 018.333
653.673 653.673 653.673 653.673 653.673 653.673 653.973 653.973 148.514 478.514 910.614 862.614 785.224
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

A potted history of Cangrejos
The back stories of some projects are more important than others, in this case it’s essential to
understand the opportunity. Cangrejos was first identified way back in the 1960s as the likely
source zone of alluvial gold being dredged in small scale river operations, but nothing was done
about it for many years. Finally LUM, under its previous corporate title Odin Mining, took control
of the concession in 1992 and brought in Newmont (NEM) to option in on the development.
That JV remained intact until 2004, when NEM changed corporate policy and retired from
Ecuador and other Frontier economies. The concession remained in Odin's control and for what
it’s worth, I first came across the name as a potential trade on Ecuador as far back as 2009,
though I passed on that occasion (and have done so at other moments). The next major
milestone came in 2014 when Ross Beaty moved in on Odin, at that time decimated by the gold
junior market collapse. Beaty took a control person stake in the company (above 20%),
Marshall Koval was installed as CEO and other Beaty inner circle put on the board. Thus began
the ten year period during which Odin has made slow but steady progress on the development,
published a PEA and then PFS level technical report, changed the corporate name to Lumina
Gold (bringing it further inside the Beaty fold) and critically, made significant progress on
community relations with both local residents and the large contingent of informal miners in the
zone. They were a sticking point for many years, at first leery, even hostile, about the presence
of a formal Canadian junior but, as time has gone by, have come to view LUM as a partner. At
other points along the years Odin/LUM the company chased different projects and went off on
side routes in Ecuador in other projects in other parts of the country (e.g. the Condor
Gold/Copper project) from time to time, putting its big Cangrejos asset on the back burner.
In that ten year period, I paid attention to Cangrejos under Odin/LUM but there was always
good reason to pass on the stock. Although we’ve noted from time to time on these pages the
slow but sure improvement in local CSR and the good job LUM’s social outreach team has done,
the political situation in Ecuador has always been difficult on a national level. The laws enacted
by Rafael Correa made many projects marginally economic compared to other countries during
the years of lower gold prices. Then came the political disturbances under Moreno and Lasso,
with indigenous locals adding more layers of risk. There were also the specifics of Cangrejos
which, as a large bulk mine project, didn’t have the same type of obvious operating margins
that a high grade UG vein project such as Lundin Gold’s Fruta del Norte can offer. Those
reasons and more, but long story short LUM at Cangrejos has never had its ducks in line until
very recently, which is why it’s only getting a closer look today after all these years.
The property
Cangrejos is located in Southern Ecuador, some 30km Southeast of provincial capital Machala.
In fact, these days it’s a double city conurbation of Machala (location of one of Ecuador’s
biggest seaports) and Santa Rosa (location of the regional airport) which combine for a total
urban population of over half a million people. As you may be
bale to make out from the map (right) found in the 2023 43-
101 PFS, Cangrejos is on the far side of the same plain as the
coastal cities and if you know the region, you’ll know that’s a
long stretch of absolutely nothing. Cangejos nestles at the
very edge of the coastal plain at the foot of the first foothills of
the Andean Cordillera, the project elevation starting at 100m
above sea level (masl) and rising at its high point to 1,400masl
(just over 4,500 feet in old money).
There are plenty of schematics and maps available of
Cangrejos in the company literature but to choose just two,
these below are the best way of getting the idea quickly. The
first is from its latest corporate presentation, shows the
mineralization is at surface and demonstrates Cangrejos is an
open pit mining project. It also shows how the project is in
fact two open pits sat next to each other, with the right hand
side showing the original Cangrejos (Crabs) deposit and the
6

left of the visual the Gran Bestia (Big Beast) deposit. There are other prospective targets on the
wider concession, these are the two have made the cut and will form the mine as planned.
The second plan visual (below) is an overhead of the layout, showing the Cangrejos and Gran
Bestia open pits to the upper right (as mature pits) and the other mine infrastructure, including
crushers, processing plant, the large tailings zone, etc. Being a sulphide operation looking to
extract gold and copper, Cangrejos is not a straightforward heap leacher. Instead it relies of
standard crush/mill processing which is generally more expensive than bulk mines using heap
leach.
It’s not so easy to read the scale bar in the above, so here’s a
close-up (right) and as you can now see, it’s a 600m bar divided
into four. So, in rough terms, Cangrejos covers a footprint of
around 3km by 3km. But we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves
now, first let’s consider the resource.
The mineral resource/reserve and contained metal
The following resource and reserve data for Cangrejos comes directly from its April 2023 Pre-
Feasibility Study (PFS). That document also forms the basis for the limited number of
calculations and estimates included today, further down the page, but in this case we use the
7

resource data with no alterations. The PFS has more details on the numbers, we use the overall
count for the combined Cangrejos/Gran Bestia pits, this desk adds red ink to help the eye:
There’s a small amount of saprolite and sap-rock mineralization (mostly in the Cangrejos pit
shell) and transition material, but the majority of the mineralization is fresh rock. We’ve
highlighted the main event line on the above table, the indicated resource for fresh rock of
0.12Bn tonnes with average grades of 0.48 g/t gold, 0.09% copper, 0.7 g/t silver and a little
molybdenum (which we do not include in the payable metals mix). They give contained metal
totals of 15.9m oz gold, 2.07Bn lbs copper and 21.3m oz silver, covering nearly all the indicated
resource total as seen in the final line item (16.8m oz gold etc) On top of that, the project hosts
inferred resources as seen above with another 3.7m oz gold etc (not part of the PFS economics
model)
Within the indicated resource, Cangrejos boasts a probable resource as seen in this table:
Notably, the probable reserve covers nearly 70% of the resource count, indicative of the quality
and knowledge . Back when this resource was generated, the 43-101 compilers used a gold
price of U$1,600/oz and a copper price of U$3.00/lb to generate a resource cut-off of 0.25 g/t
AuEq. However, that was in a different price world and since then, both metals prices and cost
inputs have changed considerably. As such, we use the above as a resource as a reasonable
guide but when it comes to economics, we need to re-work the ballpark scenario for valuation
purposes.
Expectations for capex
Part of the “ducks in line” reasoning behind today’s overview is that, after over a decade with
the current team, Cangrejos is now nearing the magic moment when project becomes reality.
Bulk tonnages open pit operations are expensive to build and therefore capex considerations
are foremost in our economics calculations and at this stage, we know two important things:
1. The capex estimates as per the 2023 PFS
2. That capex must have risen since then
Regarding the former, LUM makes sure its marketing literature features its “initial capex
number as per the 2023 PFS of U$925m, but there’s more to consider. The Cangrejos mine plan
includes a three stage build-out, with initial throughput levels of just over 30,000 tonnes per
day of processed material in the first two years, then first expansion bringing throughput to just
over 60,000tpd and the final expansion that brings it to its full speed of approximately
70,000tpd as from Year 7 for the rest of its mine life, currently slated for 26 years. In other
words, the capex keeps on coming from the start of construction to year 7 and while we can
expect cash flow to pay for the expansion stages, it still needs to be paid. Here are the
estimated costs as per the 2023 PFS:
8

 Initial capital of U$925m
 First expansion capital: U$342m
 Second expansion capital: U$111m
 Total build capex: U$1.378Bn
 Sustaining capital: U$598m
 Total capex: U$1.976Bn
Add in the estimated sustaining capex and the total bill comes to just shy of U$2Bn…a lot of
money for a country like Ecuador and one of the reasons I’ve steered clear of LUM until now,
no wonder they only want you to think about the top line $925m. What’s more, we must now
consider the latter point and add estimates for the cost inflation seen in the mining industry
these last two years. If recent examples are anything to go by (Eldorado Gold, Endurance
Silver, B2Gold, etc), we’ll need to add at least 20% to those estimates in order to make
reasonable assumptions for 2025.
Which means we add 30%. We’ll know more when the FS shows, expected mid-2025, but for
the time being we do some rounding out and run with these conservative estimates:
 Initial capital of U$1.2Bn
 First expansion capital: U$420m
 Second expansion capital: U$145m
 Total build capex: U$1.765Bn
 Sustaining capital: U$780m
 Total capex: U$2.545Bn
Let’s call it U$2.5Bn. Or if you prefer, we estimate initial capex U$275m higher than in 2023 and
total capex over half a billion dollars higher. For sure, a blanket assumption of +30% may be
too much and LUM can show us better figures later this year, but erring on the side of caution
is most definitely the way forward today. But cut the cloth however you will, this will be an
expensive mine to build and once it’s running, the government will want its share as well.
The government royalty deal
Local community risk aside, one of the most important advances in project ESG in recent years
has come with the improvement in the working relationship with the national government. We
know the Noboa admin is pro-mining (as was Lasso’s before him) and one of the main reasons
to buy Ecuador today is the mandate Noboa will have going forward, assuming things go well in
today’s election, but we’ve also seen the parties come to important formal agreements. The
centerpiece for LUM is the November 26th announcement “Lumina Gold Announces Exploitation
Contract Terms with the Government of Ecuador”, a NR that went largely ignored by the market
but marked a highly significant moment in the company’s permitting track. Under the Ecuador
rules, each company must negotiate its State burden deal with the government and final terms
depend, though they must also comply with the Constitutional edict (set up under Rafael
Correa) and at least 50% of the gross metal value of a mining deposit goes to the State. In this
case, the company and State reached a deal that includes advanced royalty payments and a
sliding scale of royalties on all three payables. The essence of the deal is captured in four tables
included in the NR that day, all four presented below for the sake of completeness, but it’s the
first two that matter most.
First up is the Advanced Royalty payment, a stipulation that goes down well with the
government as they get to show local communities immediate benefits for any given project.
This structure worked well for the Fruta del Norte project ((LUG.to) and was part of the deal
struck for the El Domo/Curipamba (SVM) project more recently. In this case, LUM will forward
pay U$25m of its royalty burden in four staged payments, the first when the Exploitation
9

Contract is signed with the others at milestone moments as seen. These advanced payments
are credited to future royalty payments once in operation.
We then come to the main event, the royalty deal struck on the main payable of gold. The
sliding scale begins at 3% for prices we’re unlikely to see for a long time, goes up 1% every
U$250/oz and caps at 8%, depending on the spot price and ensuring both parties benefit from
high gold prices. With current spot gold, Cangrejos would pay a NSR of 6.0%:
LUM has cut a similar deal for its secondary payable copper, with the range running from 3.0%
at U$4.33/lb or below and moves up in a generally easier range. We underscore at this point
the Cangrejos projected revenues are split roughly 85% gold, 14% copper and 1% silver (or
79%/20%/1% in the PFS, things have changed) and while the copper component brings useful
cash and helps drive down gold AISC to its attractive levels, Cangrejos is and always will be a
gold mine that lives or dies on the monetary metal.
Finally, we include the terms of the silver NSR with the State, mainly because it exists:
We now return our focus to the important payable in this chart, the gold royalty due to the
government presented on a per ounce basis:
LUM: Gold royalty to govt/oz
10
06
5.16
36
5.46
66
09 29 49 69 89
521 5.721 031 5.231 531 561 861 171 471 771 081
5.312 712 5.022 422 062 462 862 272 672 082
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0002 0502 0012 0512 0022 0522 0032 0532 0042 0542 0052 0552 0062 0562 0072 0572 0082 0582 0092 0592 0003 0503 0013 0513 0023 0523 0033 0533 0043 0543 0053
source: company filings, IKN calcs
tvog
ot zo/$U
At U$2,700/oz Ecaudor would benefit from a direct royalty of U$135/oz, or if we take today’s
spot-or-thereabouts U$2,900/oz, the government gets U$174/oz. Extrapolating a little further, if
we assume Cangrejos performs as per the 2023 PFS and averages 371k oz gold over its Life of
Mine (LoM), an average year at current spot would bring the government U$64.5m in royalties
for the gold, this above and beyond the normal tax regime. For context, the projected copper
royalties assuming PFS annual production levels (41.143m lbs) and U$4.50/lb spot price would
be U$7.4m (I decided not to run with that chart, feel free to ask for it if you care enough). Add
in the small contribution from the silver NSR (also house spreadsheet) and at current prices, a
working Cangrejos would generate just under U$73m per annum in NSRs for the government of
Ecuador over 26 years. Fair to say that U$25m advanced royalty payment gets credited back
quickly.

To round off that key November NR, it also gave us the latest on the company’s permitting
track for its key EIA environmental license, the document that unlocks Ecuador for mining (and
the stage that sees vehement opposition for many projects). In the words of the NR, “The
Company expects to complete applications and supporting public hearings for the
Environmental License in 2025.” That narrative has changed a little since the time of the 2023
PFS publication, when LUM talked more about EIA application submission in mid-2024. They
didn’t lie, but the world now realizes that the delivery of papers isn’t the major stage in the
process, far more important is gaining approval from locals via a successful prior consultancy
toward the end of the EIA permitting track. In other words, we now know the main thrust of
the company’s efforts this year and, if successful with the community consultancy, it would
leave Cangrejos at construction decision stage. With the backers involved in this project, that
part is the least of its problems and funding would certainly be forthcoming).
The Wheaton stream
A portion of LUM's big capex bill for Cangrejos gets covered by Wheaton Precious Metals
(WPM), who agreed to a U$300m gold stream deal with LUM in 2023. In return WOM has
forwarded the aforementioned development capital, then the main U$252m part comes when
construction begins. In return, WPM gets 6.6% of the payable gold produced by the mine and
pays 18% of spot price for those ounces until 700,000 oz are delivered. After the 700k, the
stream reduces to 4.4% of gold production.
The following chart puts the two main headwinds together, to show the double effect of the
government royalty and the WPM stream on LUM gross revenues on a per-ounce basis, using
our next conservatively pitched input of 350,000 oz gold produced per year. This differs from
the PFS assumption of 371,000 oz per year and while we could use those numbers easily
enough, adding a further layer of lowball assumptions makes sense as we await the PFS:
Effect of Govt royalty + WPM stream on LUM gross U$/oz gold
(NB: cut down Y-axis)
11
0.1381 8.6781 6.2291 4.8691 2.4102 2.7302 4.2802 7.7212 0.3712 2.8122 2.8322 0.3822 7.7232 5.2732 3.7142 2.4342 5.8742 7.2252 0.7652 2.1162 5.5562 9.8662 7.2172 4.6572 2.0082 0.1182 3.4582 5.7982 8.0492 0.4892 3.7203
3600
3400
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400 2200 2000
1800
1600
1400
0002 0502 0012 0512 0022 0522 0032 0532 0042 0542 0052 0552 0062 0562 0072 0572 0082 0582 0092 0592 0003 0503 0013 0513 0023 0523 0033 0533 0043 0543 0053
U$/oz
Spot gold/oz
gross to LUM/oz
source: LUM data, IKN calcs
Under these circumstances, as for example U$2,700/oz gold the government takes U$135/oz,
then WPM’s stream averages at U$147.70/oz produced and LUM gets U$2,417.30/oz in gross
proceeds.
An overview of opex and projected operating margins
This isn’t our main subject today, but it’s only right to sketch out the basics so once the
government and Wheaton are happy, LUM has its own costs to pay. In the PFS, LUM and its 43-
101 compilers claim an AISC of U$671/oz gold net of byproducts with the copper component
calculated at U$3.00/lb. That’s an amazing looking number with gold where it is in 2025 but
once again we must assume a higher cost basis than the PFS, even when taking into account
the better revenues from the copper and silver kickers. And once again, rather than try to
second guess the FS numbers, our ballparking today veers to the conservative side of the street
and we use a simple and blanket AISC assumption of U$1,000/oz, nearly 50% higher than the
PFS. If that doesn’t cover things, nothing will.
Why be so aggressive with the lowball parameters? This table should help demonstrate why:

LUM: Annual top line revenues and operating margin at
350,000oz/year gold production and different gold prices
12
4.387
4.334
0.997
0.944
7.418
7.464
4.038
4.084
0.648
0.694
0.258
0.205
5.768
5.715
0.388
0.335
4.898
4.845
9.319
9.365
4.929
4.975
U$m
1000 gross revs
op margin
800
600
400
200
0
2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900 2950 3000
source: LUM data, IKN calcs Gold price
Here are average annual top line revenues and estimated operating margins for Cangrejo using
our low-pitched criteria. Taking U$2,700/oz as our benchmark again, we forecast top line
revenues of U$846m and operating profits of U$496m, i.e. almost half a billion dollar per year
over 26 years of mine life. Yes indeed, ladies and gents, there’s a serious prize on offer here.
How that plays out on a per-share basis come the first day of production is virtually impossible
to guess at this stage. We assume LUM does the work and builds the mine, we know Wheaton
will contribute U$250m of the initial capex bill, we can also estimate LUM needs U$1.2Bn to
reach initial production, so it all depends on how LUM covers the U$950m (call it a round
billion?) or so. On a conceptual level, a Beaty company shouldn’t have difficulty in accessing
that sort of capital but there are several avenues they could use to fund the build out. A sale to
a third party (Lundin Gold may warm to the idea of keeping all its eggs in the Ecuador basket),
a JV to being in capex with a partner, debt
issuance, further stream deals or Operating EPS at three sample share counts
straightforward equity all make sense under 1.60
the circumstances, so in order to cover as 1.40
many bases as possible there once again is 1.20 0.99
1.00 0.87
the gold price spread using the criteria seen
0.80
above (350k/annum production, U$1k/oz
0.60 0.43 0.50
AISC, WPM stream, govt royalty) and three
0.40
different share counts:
0.20 0.29 0.33
0.00
At 500m shares out (close to the count we
expect at end 2025) and U$2,700/oz, LUM
generates 99c/share in operating earnings.
That’s a crazy amount for a C$0.55 share
price today and even if we dilute the count by a full billion and raise U$500m in share sales
alone, it leaves operating EPS at U$0.33c/share.
To recap economics and end the note
Come the day we pull the trigger and buy shares we’re bound to go into more detail about
project economics and offer the model in greater detail, but today’s ballpark is enough to show
just how impressive LUM is at current prices. Even when building in not just reasonable but
highly conservative parameters into our basic model, the amount of free cash flow produced by
Cangrejos over its long estimated mine life make its billion-plus front end bill a real bargain and
even when diluting shares threefold, it kicks out operating EPS number that make its 50c shares
look very cheap indeed. Among other very conservative assumptions, we run with:
 The government royalty and Wheaton stream as stand and fully accounted
 Initial capex at $1.2Bn, some $275m higher than the 2023 PFS
 350,000 oz gold annual production, instead of 371,000 oz
 All-in sustaining costs of U$1,000/oz instead of U$641/oz (post copper and silver
kicker)
0002 0012 0022 0032 0042 0052 0062 0072 0082 0092 0003 0013 0023 0033 0043 0053
op EPS
500m S/O
1Bn S/O
1.5Bn S/O
gold price

Then even with those and by diluting the share count by a billion shares to stand at 1.5Bn
shares out, the model returns operating profits of 33c/share.
With Ecuador’s political scene moving in favour of
mining, this is #1 on my list to be the next stock to
add once we have confirmation of the Noboa
continuation. We finish with a look at the five year
chart, a reminder than even if the stock runs on
election speculation and those early buyers get it
right, there will be more than enough upside for
later buyers.
Stocks to Follow
A good week for the portfolio was ruined on a personal level. As I sit here on Saturday morning
surveying the portfolio, considering the ten winners (MAI.v, RIO.v, ARG.to, MARI.to, ABEA.v,
SRL.v, RPX.v, OCI.v, GOLD, PGDC.v), mostly from the larger personal holdings and including
some big percentage moves such as Red Pine (RPX.v up 21.7%), Salazar (SRL.v up 16.7%) and
Rio2 (RIO.v up 13.0%), I cannot get over the blight on the portfolio caused by one stock in
particular. While Eldorado Gold (EGO down 8.6%) is only one of six losers on the week (EGO,
PGZ.v, AAG.v, ERO.to, IPT.v, PAU.cse) and wasn’t even the biggest dropper since IKN820 (see
PAU.cse down 27.6% and PGZ.v down 12.1% for more), it’s by far the most painful to stomach
and the double (or triple?) whammy losses in that stock in the last few weeks are depressing
beyond measure. There’s no mitigation from having Barrick in the green in the current portfolio
either, the fact is that I’ve managed to call gold right in recent weeks, but pick the worst
performing mid-cap gold producer on which to place my main bet. Ugh and double ugh, I feel
very stupid this weekend.
We currently have 19 open positions on the Stock to Follow list, one under the self-imposed
max. Ten of those are in the green, one is unchanged, eight are in the red and as most of the
red ink is nearer the bottom of the table where there’s more risk and less money involved,
there are reasons to be cheerful about 2025 to date. But EGO stares at me like an open wound.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.335 59.5% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.78 -2.5% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$13.93 -15.8% now very oversold
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.79 16.2% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.60 83.6% Quality Cu developer
AbraSilver ABRA.v STR BUY C$2.73 26-Jan-25 C$3.04 11.4% 2nd buy made, avg up
Salazar Res SRL.v STR BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.105 31.3% Ecuador elex/buyout trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.14 27.3% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.145 -23.7% Cu jr, disappointing to date
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% top fundy value, illiquid
Aftermath Silver AAG.v BUY $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.54 27.1% New silver trade going well
Barrick Gold GOLD hold U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$17.04 8.5% will sell in Feb'25
Ero Copper ERO BUY C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$19.08 -1.5% near/medium term Cu fliptrade
Surge Copper SURG.v SPEC BUY $0.11 22-Dec-24 C$0.095 -13.6% bulk copper in good address
13

SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.20 -33.3% Silver spec, done nothing
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.05 150.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.21 147.1% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.125 -72.2% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% nice NT trade, took profit
Libero Copper LBC.v Jan'26 C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.245 -30.0% small spec loser
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies.
Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to): Will sell soon. The official heads-up on my near-term
trading plans is back because showtime is upon us. GOLD reports its 4q24 and YE numbers this
coming week, pre-open this coming Wednesday February 12th with the Conference Call
(webinar link here (2)) that same morning at 11am ET.
We got other news from GOLD last week and for a change, it was positive. The company
reported (3) its new gold (and copper) reserves totals and thanks to the development at Reko
Diq, there’s a big uptick. Here’s how the NR kicked off…
TORONTO – Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD)(TSX:ABX) grew attributable proven and
probable gold mineral reserves by 17.4 million ounces4 (23%) before 2024 depletion. Attributable
proven and probable mineral reserves now stand at 89 million ounces at 0.99g/t2, increasing from
77 million ounces at 1.65g/t3 in 2023. The year-on-year change was led by the conversion of Reko
Diq copper-gold resources to mineral reserves, adding 13 million ounces of gold at 0.28g/t2 on an
attributable basis, following the completion of the feasibility study. Significantly, before the addition
of Reko Diq, Barrick delivered a fourth consecutive year of replacing annual depletion at a 4%
higher grade, continuing to demonstrate the results of an unremitting focus on asset quality and
further extending the life of our existing operations.
And here’s the pay dirt in table form, with overall P+P reserves up 12m oz to 89m oz (red
circle) and the copper table below showing the massive increase in P+P copper, thanks again to
Reko Diq. The news went down well enough and sets GOLD up for the big day this coming
week.
14

We remind readers of the revised plan to hold through earnings as we expect a positive result
and numbers that beat the consensus 41c EPS estimate. In the days following Q4 earnings, I
plan to sell and take profits but even if things go South and GOLD drops on its Q4 numbers, I’m
not hanging around any longer.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): POSITION ADDED. As laid out in IKN820 last
weekend, I moved to add to my starter position in ABRA and if you care enough, I’d estimate
I’m now at around 50% my targeted full position. I managed to buy last week at under the
C$3.00 line, including a few on the cheapest day Monday, which has popped my cost average
up to C$2.73. That’s a reasonable result under the circumstances and I don’t see any reason to
pay over the C$3 line for the time being.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): Our other main silver
trade, Aftermath (AAG.v), started just six weeks ago
but is going well so far with +27% on the board
and, as this chart tries to show, is now hinting at
better things to come. Last week began with AAG
running to over 60c (as Eric Sprott bought more)
and while the 54c finish was close the to week’s
lows and a penny off from last weekend’s price, the
pattern as seen in the chart (right) is very
constructive and the first time AAG has traded
consistently above that 50c line (with 53c as the
intraday top) since the big Eric Sprott pumpo move
in October. Very easy to hold at the moment.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): A couple of things to report, first up on Tuesday RPZ
delivered news (4) on the ongoing 25kmt drill program, as well as other development matters:
Toronto, Ontario (February 4, 2025) – Red Pine Exploration Inc. (TSXV: RPX, OTCQB: RDEXF)
(“Red Pine” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that two drills are now operating at site,
towards completion of the fully funded 25,000 metre (“m”) drill program at its Wawa Gold Project.
The two drills are now testing the deep extension of the Jubilee shear beyond the 2024 Mineral
Resource Estimate (“MRE”) with three drill holes now completed. The Company has also received
assay results from the relogging of 2024 drill holes designed to test the Jubilee Shear south of the
Parkhill Fault.
The second part first, as the re-logging of core (there’s a lot of historic drilling at Wawa) allows
this brains trust plenty of cheap intel on what they have and is a smart, cost-effective way of
advancing the new plans. Regarding those plans, the main interest of the 25,000m program
now underway must be the deeper targets as seen on this map (your author adds a blue box to
make sure) as there’s a high
probability of adding quick tonnage
there. This map also shows,
conceptually at least, the benefits of
building Wawa as a combo open
pit/UG operation because it’s no
difficult to envisage a pit in the central
part of the resource body that would
allow for a low overall strip rate and
robust economics. A staged
development with open pit leading to
UG would also drop the capex barrier
significantly.
Secondly, better news from the
trading pit as, for the first time in
three months, RPX last week managed to break clear of that stubborn 12c line and move
higher. The chart shows there is still technical hills to climb but once 16c is behind us, I see no
reason why RPX cannot fill the gap caused by the Quentin Yarie scandal in Apri/May.
15

our
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Down a hefty 27.6% on the week on accelerated selling
volume Thursday and Friday, which would be bad if
I owned but as this is a Watch List stock, it’s good
news and the (start of the?) type of drop I’m looking
for to allow a reasonable entry point.
The reason for the drop is the NR out Thursday
morning (5) and while it’s not obvious at first why a
NR headlining somewhat neutral news would cause
such a sell-off, PAU offered us a classic example of
“read everything”. Entitled “Provenance Gold
Engages Drilling Contractor for March Drill
Mobilization and Commences Drone-Based Airborne
Magnetic Survey at its Eldorado Property”, the NR
started by giving details on those two headliner comments along with photos and a CEO
commenting on his excitement that the 2025 drill campaign would be kicking off next month.
So far so meh but then, this:
EC-02 and EC-03 Assay Update
The Company is expecting the results from these two holes imminently and results will be
announced once analyzed and reviewed. Although drilling at EC-02 and EC-03 encountered
significant operational challenges as well as drilling ground condition difficulties within fault
structures, the Company believes the information gained will create a clearer picture of the
mineralization in the area between the first zone and the boulder zone which will help guide
exploration in that part of the property. Additionally, the Company is working diligently to facilitate a
more timely turnaround of results.
With that, the expectation being baked into the last two holes of the 2024 season dissolved,
PAU told the market to curb its enthusiasm and the reaction was immediate. As stated, on a
personal level PAU down from the levels reached at peak hype two months ago (over 40c) suits
me fine, but for the level of volatility implied in this stock, I’d need a lower entry point than this
before pulling the trigger. February is set to be a quiet month and while March will come with
“we’re drilling folks” NRs, the next substantive news isn’t going to show until April. Plenty of
time to watch from the sidelines and make a better informed decision later.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Another tick box in the laundry list was officially filled last week
when MAI announced (6) the successful closure of the Sabre Gold acquisition. Among other
details, we learned MAI emitted exactly 76,499,114 paid-up shares, along with 2.547m options
as pro rata for outstanding Sabre derivatives. They also paid the middleman for the deal some
3,118,800 shares. Finally, MAI got all its linen washed at the same time by taking the
opportunity of this NR to award 7m incentive options to insiders, with 6.2m for the proles priced
at 33c and 800k for head honcho Doug Ramshaw priced at 60c…which is a fair deal. We also
have a brand new corporate presentation on the MAI website (7) dated Friday February 7th
which includes the details of the Copperstone acquisition now it’s closed, as well as overviews
of Santana, Cerro de Oro, La Fortuna, and even a page on Minera Copper. Aside from
16

confirmation there’s 10,000 oz of recoverable gold on the Santana pads at the moment, there
was nothing particularly new about the contents of the presentation for anyone paying close
attention or taking notes in the recent webinar but
MAI.v: Shares Out it’s good to get a hard copy of the information. It’s
a well laid out document and worth your time to
download one, fellow long, it also confirms the
new shares out total post-Sabre of 576.5m (right).
In trading, MAI did okay without ever threatening
to melt up. The bet here is on the change in the
permit regime in Mexico and as noted in recent
issues, the improvement is obvious to one and all
and last week saw the arrows point in the same
direction as laid out in “Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
leaving the penalty box”, last weekend.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): For a few minutes on Thursday and Friday, my personal position came out
of the red for the first time in almost three years and while it didn’t hold into Friday’s close,
we’re now a long way from the pain of holding these shares through the worst of times. Aside
the initial dump after the permit denial in 2022 that sank the stock to the low-teens, RIO failed
to trade above 30c before December 2023 and as
late as November that year, there was all you could
have eaten under 20c (as low as 16c, in fact). FWIW
in hindsight, that was the worst of times for this
desk.
Anyway, last week’s very decent move finally
cracked RIO.v over the stubborn 70c line and came
with solid fundamental news (8), i.e. then company
holding an official start-of-construction ceremony at
the Fenix project site with top gust Aurora Williams,
Chile’s highly respected Minister of Mining. This
photo shows the ribbon cutting ceremony with
RIO.v CEO Andrew Cox the MC.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): Along with the new short list focus on Lumina gold (LUM.v) this
week, the reason to buy SRL was to position for the Ecuador Presidential election and what we
expect to be a pro-mining scenario if Daniel Noboa is adjudicated the win. Signs were good last
week when SRL woke up from a late January lull period, with what looks like a speculative
move that included decent volume on Wednesday and a
priming speculative move on Friday that had no problem in
sticking. We’re now 30% and change up on the trade and in
the right place for the most likely exit, i.e. Silvercorp moving
to consolidate 100% ownership of El Domo/Curipamba and
buying out that portion of SRL, leaving Fredy to go do his
exploration on early stage assets.
Bottom line: Now is the time to own this stock, obvious
trading buy.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): Here’s a tinycap laggard that
may have been overlooked to this point, as it too has ducks coming into line. For one thing,
SURG and the relatively low grade Berg/Ootsa projects in BC have tended to need high copper
prices to attract investor attention and the move in copper last week is right in its wheelhouse.
Also, please note that once it starts to move, SURG can put in very quick upside…errr….surges
17
2.644 84.844 32.944 86.754 88.164 88.164 88.164 88.164 88.264 88.264 89.264 7.074 30.994 5.675
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300 250
200
150
100
50
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings
serahs
fo snoillim

that are not easy to grab onto once in gear so, if you’re thinking about a speculation here, get
in around this current 10c-ish price.
Secondly, SURG could benefit from the BC Government announcement last week to look to
combat the new Canadian antipathy toward Trump’s USA by fast tracking permits for large-
scale projects (9):
VICTORIA — The British Columbia government has released a list of 18 critical mineral and
energy projects worth roughly $20 billion that it said it's working to accelerate in the face of ongoing
tariff threats from the United States.
While the 18 projects only include four mines (e.g. Eskay Creek, Red Chris expansion, Highland
Valley), the BC government also called it an "initial list", and “made up of projects that already
have developed business cases but still need some type of permit or approval from
government.” That’s the right framework for an early-stage copper project that would be able
to coattail a new permit-friendly provincial attitude.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Up 7.8% on the week and a nice move from our mainstay
copper trade, though as the comparative chart to spot copper (HG00) tries to show, it’s still
running par for the course compared to the copper market. With the dividend payments and
the reliable, cash cow nature of its operations we’d expect
the gap to increase with time, but this isn’t a high
leveraged play on copper and if you’re looking for
explosive upside from a speculative trade, ARG probably
should be your first option.
Last week, ARG confirmed it had made zero share
buybacks in the month of January, so we’re still waiting
for that upside pressure to re-start in 2025. Between now
and end November it has the right to re-buy up to 12m
shares and if it does that, it means copper is in a good
place. Happy holder of this core position and I’m not
about to make the same mistake I’ve done previously,
namely selling this in search of more leverage. Slow and steady wins this race.
The Copper Basket
After six weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 1.82% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 610.11 2.22 55.2%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 390.14 0.13 0.0%
3 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 329.63 1.94 2.1%
4 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 292.84 1.82 10.3%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 148.409 292.37 1.97 34.0%
6 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 265.52 2.13 3.9%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 151.95 0.74 0.0%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 144.43 0.57 3.6%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 89.34 0.59 -11.9%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 80.38 0.48 -30.4%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 59.92 0.50 -20.6%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 28.38 0.11 0.0%
13 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 21.40 0.61 1.7%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 14.26 0.25 -20.6%
15 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 83.164 13.31 0.16 0.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 1.82%
18

The Copper Basket is back in the green and that’s a good thing, the five winners (ATX.v,
ALDE.v, ASCU.to, FDY.to, PM.cse) out-numbered
The Copper Basket 2025, weekly evolution
by the eight losers (SOLG.to, TMQ.to, REG.v, 4.0%
BIG.v, HCH.v, XXIX.v, KBX.cse, LBC.v) but still 3.5%
enough to beat the odds, thanks mostly to the big 3.0%
2.5%
share price improvements seen in Arizona
2.0%
Sonoran (ASCU.to up 18.7%), Atex Resources
1.5%
(ATX.v up 11.0%), Pampa Metals (PM.cse up 1.0%
10.3%) and let’s include Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 0.5%
8.45) in the bigger winners’ circle, too. With no 0.0%
-0.5%
big percentage losers, that was enough to pull the source: IKN calcs
-1.0%
average back above the waterline.
Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th
However, what The Copper Basket did not do was emulate the move in copper:
The house position is as long-term copper bulls, but along the way we’ve tried to point out
moments when copper prices show relative weakness or strength compared to the real market
and most recently, it’s been clear copper was talked down by another round of ChinaFears!
Chatter. But last week rumours didn’t stand a chance against the reality of a copper in supply
deficit all 4q24 (see IKN820 last weekend) and with traders back at their desks, it was a one-
way trade. To that we should add the balderdash about Trump’s negative effect on copper now
unwinding, another strand of the narrative we’ve laughed about recently. Compare this, for
example, out of Reuters on Friday (10)….
"Copper prices in London hit their highest in almost three months on Friday and wre heading for
the best weekly growth since September as the return of the top metals consumer China after the
Lunar New Year holidays eased fears over trade tensions.
"It is China which is really fuelling the rally in the past 48 hours and since their reopen," said
Alastair Munro at broker Marex.
…to the quote made only last week in this same section
Copper prices in London fell to their lowest in three weeks on Wednesday as U.S.
President Donald Trump’s tariff plans continue to crimp the global demand outlook.
So what is it guys, copper down due to Trump tariffs, or copper up due to Trump tariffs? Can
we make up our minds, please? Or if you like, compare these to headers to see how Bloomberg
has been up to the same narrative tricks:
19

Anyone in finance with a brain knows Mike Bloomberg’s political bias and in this case, his
mouthpiece comes up with “Copper is down because Orange Man Bad” followed swiftly by
“Copper is up because Orange Man Bad”. Bless ‘em all, they really do think we’re this stupid.
Meanwhile in real copper news (11) Chile’s Chile copper production per year, 2013 to 2024
Cochilco has run its numbers and has a first
pass total for copper production in the world’s
biggest producer country for 2024. The
5.507mmt total is split on this chart between
Codelco (orange) and private capitals (purple)
and the total is the best since 2021, with good
numbers out of BHP La Escondida and Codelco
in December helping the final total. We’re still
a distance for the production figures achieved
in the pre-Covid era and the previous decade,
but Chile does seem to have turned a corner.
And with China back from its holidays, it’s time to check out the big changes in copper
inventories this week, data supplied by Cochilco:
 China came back from its break, the year of the Snake has begun and in the copper
space, world copper inventories put in one of its classic post-holiday moves. The overall
stocks total moved up by a cool 79,659 metric tonnes (mt) this week to close at
523,052mt.
 The reason was the move in SHFE stocks, which jumped by 86,768mt in one of those
massive ups that look bearish to the uninitiated, but once you check the calendar it
makes sense. The combo of back-to-work at the ports and end-users having fully
stocked up before the break makes for this large influx of metal at this time of year and
if things develop in a normal way, there are several more weeks to come before we hit
the peak. See the dedicated SHFE charts below for a little more, here we wrap up with
the weekend total under roof of 184,817mt.
 Interestingly, LME copper went the other direction and dropped by 8,600mt, with
8,300mt of that out of its Asia warehouses. LME is down to 247,625mt of copper in
stock this weekend.
 Another add at Comex, where copper stocks ended Friday at 90,610mt.
The dedicated SHFE charts show the timely spike in stocks, with the upper the clearer one to
compare the current size to previous years and the lower on how the timing coincides.
20
3.451,4
226,1
3.980,4
276,1
4.040,4
237,1
1.548,3
807,1
6.967,3
437,1
1.451,4
876,1
2.991,4
885,1
1.511,4
816,1
5.500,4
816,1
8.488,3
644,1
0083
523,1
0.971,4
823,1
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500 4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202
MMT Cu
source: Cochilco, Codelco, ests
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von ht62
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
21
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
We remind readers that last year, 2024, started relatively normally but developed into a weird
year when the spike high came and refused to fall away. Therefore we have two things to
watch out for in 2025, firstly the peak (will it make the 300k line again?) and secondly whether
buyers then show at the prices offered, or whether a Mexican standoff develops again.
Now for notes on some of the basket component stocks:
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): While selling my shares in ASCU last
month for C$1.68, I made sure the warnings were in place and the
potential of selling too early and leaving money on the table. Those
warnings may have been for you and they may have been for me, but the
trade plan was to splash’n’dash on a flip from late December into the New
Year, the plan was laid out and on selling, I was happy enough with my
20% difference. So no regrets, even as the stock did this last week:
ASCU stock rose on the back of three main influences. Firstly on Monday it announced the
adoption of a Shareholder Rights plan (12), an interesting move as it’s almost always for show
and with the intention of setting off M&A rumours. It’s also a one-time-only card to play, so
once the matter is consigned to memory it won’t matter any more. To be fair we applaud the
timing, as they played the card in conjunction with the second NR of last week (13), Tuesday’s
“Arizona Sonoran Provides 2024 Recap and 2025 Work Plan” (their allcaps, not mine). Another
NR designed to create market awareness, which is also fair enough, but despite being long with
lists of achievements in 2024, plans for 2025, suitable photos and a hefty CEO comment there
was precious little in the way of new news.
That didn’t stop the market from liking the NR, though. As we’ve pointed out on many
occasions, ASCU is one of the high-profile explorecos with plenty of insto, brokerage and
newsletter support and the marketing effort of last week paid off. Which brings in the third
factor, the fortunate timing of selling a copper story in the same week that copper made a
serious move up. This combo of marketing, support and timing was the heady cocktail that sent
ASCU over the C$2.00 line briefly, before settling at its C$1.97 close.

Will it continue to rally? That depends entirely on what copper-the-metal now does, but you can
be sure the large groups who participated in the C$1.45 bought deal that raised C$34.5m in
gross proceeds last October will be keen on seeing support drummed up. Personally, I see zero
value left in this stock at this price and copper price moves aside, the next real catalyst isn’t
until the “second half of this year” (which could mean December) and the results of the PFS
studies, now underway.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): ALDE hosted a site visit to Altar this week and the guests
must have liked what they saw, because the 8.6%
week-over-week performance is almost 15% if you
count from the Tuesday close. Yes, that coincided with
the rally in copper-the-metal but as we can see in the
main table, not every junior rallied at the same time.
To date no regrets here about selling this either, but
that’s because we got well above C$2. However, with
copper now rallying I doubt we’re going to see a deep
value re-entry price. ALDE is a better bet than its sister
stock REG and Altar will be a mine one fine day, it has
the scale the majors require and the country risk is now
firmly in its favour. ALDE looks in a good place to
consolidate its gains, as long as copper doesn’t sink back of course.
Atex Resources (ATX.v): I said my piece on ATX in IKN819 two weekends ago, e.g. “…my
(well documented) leeriness isn’t going to change the fact that the market is falling in love with
this stock” or if you prefer “It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve avoided a junior story and been
absolutely wrong on its price performance for an extended period, often years and not just
months, before the price reverts and goes back to the mean.” Since then, the only thing that’s
changed at the company, aside the granting of a modest number of RSUs last week, is the
share price, Having added a further 32c to this weekend’s C$2.22. Here’s another example of
how high-profile backers facilitate the marketing of a story, as Pierre Lassonde’s involvement
has changed this into a quasi A-List story that’s now often compared to the Lundin Vicuña
copper camp on the Chile/Argentina border. This despite
the obvious drawbacks that Vakleriano brings to the table
compared to Josemaria, Filo etc.
XXIX.v: Two thoughts on the stock, first the Glass Half
Full: Friday’s 11c close is at the bottom of its recent
trading range and though XXIX hasn’t done much lately, it
doesn’t tend to collapse either and even these boring days
nearly always see daily traded volume in six figures.
There’s a case to be made for picking some up at this 11c
price and flipping them back when 13c shows again, as
history tells us it will.
Now the Glass Half Empty: So far at least, the re-branding
of QC Copper to XXIX and the addition of the Thierry
project to the asset book has done precious little to wake
up this stock price. The flatlining has gone on for at least
six quarters, or 11 if you count back from the end of the
waterfall drop in mid-2022. As a previous holder who gave
up, I’m aware of the pain of opportunity cost in the
current environment for junior stocks when you go long-
term on a company that does this. XXIX’s new motto is “A
Canadian Copper Powerhouse” but to live up to that, some
of the power needs to be transferred to its share price
22

action.
UPDATE Sunday: It so happens that XXIX today posted a new 6 minute video about its Thierry
project on its YouTube channel this afternoon, explaining what the geologists have been up to
since acquiring the project late last year. The thrust of the argument is that by re-logging
previous core, they’ve re-interpreted the deposit and believe it holds a lot more mineralized
material than previously understood. Next up, they are going to drill this year and increase the
resource footprint. Worth watching yourself, here’s the link (14).
The Producer Basket
After 6 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 13.99% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1152.6 51.68 44.84 20.5%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 48.98 98.35 25.8%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 29.79 17.04 9.9%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 27.27 141.96 20.7%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.32 2.53 3.7%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 2.85 13.93 -6.3%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.37 3.00 21.0%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 2.32 4.69 17.8%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 1.86 6.28 12.5%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 148.95 1.53 10.26 14.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 13.99%
The poor start for the 2025 picks gets worse. While +14% for 2025 doesn’t look bad at face
value, we’re now 6.5% behind the GDX benchmark and aside from the obvious pain caused by
having Eldorado Gold (EGO) in the list, pleased note that three of the four imports for this year
are performing worse than the GDX so far. With B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) up 3.7%, Sandstorm
Gold Royalties (SAND) (SSL.to) up 12.5% and OceanaGold Corp (OGC.to) up 17.8%, it’s not
just my decision to leave EGO in there that makes me look stupid and so far, only New Gold
(NGD) up 21.0% has any semblance of good stockpicking. Ugh, feeling stupid.
Please note that we’re now moving into the main reporting period for large cap and mid cap PM
producers. Some come later (e.g. Franco-Nevada, OceanaGold) but two of our table ten report
this coming week (NGD, GOLD) and the big crop comes the week after next, with Feb 18th and
19th the apparent peak dates this year. We’ll be watching the bigger boys more closely in the
next two weeks, with a special eye for 1) operating and net profits in absolute dollar terms as
gold’s bonanza prices should start to impress generalists and 2) guidance numbers for the year
ahead, which should also set the tone among instos that consider numbers more than the day-
to-day issues mining companies face.
The 2025 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and The 2025 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
22% comparative to GDX control GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
20% 8.0%
18% 7.0%
16% ikn 6.0%
14% gdx control 5.0%
12%
4.0%
10%
8% 3.0%
6% 2.0%
4% 1.0%
2% source: IKN calcs 0.0%
0%
Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th
Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
23

New Gold (NGD): Aside the pain and suffering in EGO (other places today, we had one other
loser on the week in New Gold (NGD), down 0.7% after it announced this new on Monday (815
TORONTO, Feb. 3, 2025 /CNW/ - New Gold Inc. ("New Gold" or the "Company") (TSX:NGD)
(NYSE American: NGD) wishes to advise that Mr. Yohann Bouchard and the Company have
mutually decided to part ways. Mr. Bouchard's last day as Executive Vice President and Chief
Operating Officer was January 31, 2025. New Gold thanks Mr. Bouchard for his contribution and
wishes him well with his future endeavors.
Resignation of C-suite officers is rarely good, unexpected
departures normally bad and if they happen, you want a
NR that doesn’t veer away from standard cookie-cutter
script. So seeing the oddly formed “…have mutually
decided to part ways” adds a third negative to the mix.
That sent a jitter through the market and while the stock
price recovered and caught back up to the median
midweek, the nerves showed again in a soft Friday close.
We don’t have long to wait before learning if M-
Bouchard’s departure is connected with mine
underperformance in recent weeks, as NGD is set to report its 4q24 and YE financials this
coming Wednesday, February 12th, though unlike Barrick it waits until the close and holds its
ConfCall the next day, Thursday 13th (webinar link here (16)).
Barrick and Newmont (GOLD) (NEM): A small wrinkle in the normal pattern of disclosure
between these two companies. In every recent quarter until changing its policy without warning
(or NR) last month, Barrick has offered pre-earnings sales and data figures on its quarter. As
GOLD goes JV with Newmont at the Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) complex and also at Pueblo
Viejo, that Barrick pre-announced data helped shape expectations for the Newmont quarter.
We’d then typically the NEM quarter announced, with production and financials and after that
Barrick would file its financial quarter. So normally:
 Barrick production pre-announced
 Newmont financials
 Barrick financials
But not this time. For 4q24 GOLD didn’t give pre-announced production or sales figures and
what’s more, it’s filing before NEM rather than after. Barrick is reporting its quarter on February
12th, with Newmont’s quarter scheduled for post close February 20th. So this time:
 No Barrick pre-announcement
 Barrick financials
 Newmont financials
In other words, if the Barrick numbers move its market this Wednesday, look for knock-on
effects in the NEM share price.
Newmont (NEM) and Agnico (AEM): When the NEM/Newcrest fusion closed in early 2024,
the newly enlarged company had a market cap over $15Bn larger than that of Agnico (AEM).
Despite that, this desk couldn’t help but wonder how long NEM would continue as #1 in the
sector. Here we are, less than a year later and the gap between NEM and AEM is down to
U$2.7Bn, or 5.5% of AEM’s current market cap. That’s basically the difference between having
a better quarter than your rival and it’s becoming more likely by the week that we’re going to
see a new sector leader in the gold space.
The TinyCaps List
After 6 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 0.91% to level stakes:
24

company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 14.39 0.1075 -36.8%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 18.35 0.13 -10.3%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 11.88 0.12 -7.7%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 24.43 0.14 -3.4%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 31.89 0.42 7.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 8.68 0.09 12.5%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 236.796 34.34 0.145 11.5%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 13.96 0.13 52.9%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 23.95 0.455 -17.3%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 118.384 16.57 0.140 0.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 0.91%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the
window a little and allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
It was honours even on the headcount this week, TinyCaps, 2025 weekly tracker
5%
with five winners (BRO.v, EDG.v, LMS.v, MOG.v,
4%
RDU.v) and five losers (CN.v, ELY.v, KDK.v, STS.v,
3%
VAU.v) to report, but despite that the basket
2%
average managed to squeeze its way back into the
1%
positive and that’s almost entirely due to the biggest
0%
mover on the week by some distance, Radius Gold -1%
(RDU.v up 23.8%). South Star (STS.v down 10.8%) -2%
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
was the biggest loser, all the others were small -3%
moves in either direction. Jan1st Jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th
Barksdale Resources (BRO.v): The buck stops here (17):
Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - February 6, 2025) - Barksdale Resources Corp.
(TSXV: BRO) (OTCQX: BRKCF) ("Barksdale" or the
"Company") announces that Rick Trotman, effective
February 5, 2025, has resigned from his position as
President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company.
They “wished him well” in the NR, but after the “visual
assay” NR in December followed by results from the
hole that made the exercise rather suspicious (to say the
least, see IKN819 and IKN820), this didn’t come as a
surprise. The loss of the CEO caused more selling and
BRO went under the 10c line, before a bigger buyer
stepped up and took 400k off the market at 12c, the
Friday close of 10.75c some kind of middle ground.
Considering the backers of this stock and their high
media profile, could make some conjectures and best guesses about the internal politics of last
week that caused the CEO departure and/or the 12c purchase to prop the stock price, but
ultimately this is a pennyplay exploreco and these things happen.
25

Radius Gold (RDU.v): We noted the buzz about this stock last weekend, which only got
louder last week as momentum grew and Simon
Ridgway did what he does best. However, finding
economic deposits are not what he does best so we’ll
wait and see what happens with this as the year rolls
out. We added RDU to the TinyCaps this year due to its
new and interesting Tierra Roja copper target in South
Peru and that’s the subject of all the jungle drumming,
with the company insiders happy to give off-the-record
briefings to all and sundry but nothing said officially so
far. As stated, Ridgway doing what he does best. Tierra
Roja is still waiting for drill permits and those are slated
to appear in Q1, at which point the noise will grow as
the rig(s) arrive on site. In trading, RDU traded higher
all week and then spiked again on good Volume Friday, before settling at 13c. Watching.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Tuesday saw LMS report (18) VISIBLE GOLD! From its Cerro Bayo y
Las Flores early stage exploration property, in the prospective Deseado Massif area of Santa
Cruz, South Argentina. Previously optioned out to Barrick, it was handed back to LMS last year
and they’re sure to want a new source of OPM to take over if
possible, so announcing VISIBLE GOLD! With accompanying
photos one month before the main conference season kicks
off is an advertising sign.
The stock price shrugged at the news, VISIBLE GOLD! or not.
We repeat, while a deal on one of LMS’s Peru properties
would be welcome, the real reason to keep an eye on this
stock it’s the potential for new JV partner Moxico to score the
drilling permits for its Esperanza project in San Juan,
Argentina. If that news drops, don’t wait for me to comment
on it in the subsequent weekend’s edition.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
The Ecuador Presidential election
One of the several reasons for the late arrival of today’s note is the outcome of Sunday’s
Presidential election first round vote and a result that saw the main challenger perform better
than most expected. First the basic data and with 96.13% of votes officially tallied (0.64% of
votes yet to be entered into the system, 3.23% with discrepancies) this Monday evening we
have the following totals for the 16 candidates (19):
 Daniel Noboa (ADN): 44.16%
 Luisa González (RC): 43.95%
 Leonidas Iza (MUPP): 5.30%
 Andrea González: 2.69%
 Henry Kronfle: 0.71%
 Perdro Granja: 0.53%
 None of the other 10 candidates got more than 0.4%
We knew durng the campaign that it would be tight between the right wing incumbent,
President Daniel Noboa, and the left wing dauphine of Rafael Correa, Luisa González. That’s
how it turned out, but ths result is far closer than most polls expected and indeed, even on the
day of the result initial exit polls put Noboa in leads of between four and ten points. It’s fair to
26

say Luisa González outperformed and while there are a couple of tenths difference, it’s a
technical dead heat as we head into the run-off scheduled for April 13th. It also means I’m
forced to eat my own words slightly and dial back the forecast for this election, but again only a
little. Up to this weekend I considered Noboa a 90% probable, that’s dropped back but on due
consideration, he’s still favourite.
This weekend ended up as a partial protest vote against the incumbent Noboa. He may
consider himself unlucky to have inherited the situation, but the long-term power cuts ate into
his government’s popularity and his “hard on crime” stance has not resulted in any meaningful
drop in murder or crime figures, with narco gangs still causing havoc in the country. He didn’t
run the best of campaigns either, first getting into a spat with his ex-VP, then relying on social
media to get his message across and not putting in as many hard campaign yards as his main
opponent, visiting fewer constituencies and making fewer speeches and making a rather odd
faux pas in the final week by closing the borders, claiming he was trying to stop “outside
interference” in the vote. He may have thought it would play into his strongman image, but
what it did above all was to annoy the populace and stop them from doing what they wanted to
do, not a great optics when you’re only days from an election. A certain portion of Ecuador
considered that the only way of stopping Noboa from winning in round one was to vote for the
Correista candidate, making sure the gap was less than 10% to force a second round. However,
the Rafael Correa Anti-Vote still exists and Sunday was very close to its ceiling. Since his fall
from political grace, one of the most consistent data points in Ecuador politics has been the
more-then-50% who insist they would not vote for Correa or any of his proxies, be that Luisa in
the last three years or Arauz before her, so if Luisa González wants to get over 50% and win on
April 13th she’s going to have to detach her image from her mentor as much as possible in the
next two months. That’s easier said than done.
Essentially, Sunday saw the same polarization of Ecuador politics as we saw in 2023, when
Noboa came second to Luisa in round one then beat her in the run-off by 51.83% to 48.17%.
The only difference is the polarization has started in the first round, rather than waiting the
second. At least 40% of each candidate’s vote is hard support, which means they are fighting
for the 20% or so between the tactical/soft/protest votes they picked up collectively and the
votes that went to other candidates.
This brings in the potential for deals and pacts between the run-off candidates the other 14
who ran in round one. Of those, there are three important players:
 Andrea González: Running on a green-centreleft enviro messge, her 2.7% of the vote is a
useful amount for either candidate. However, she has already ruled out supporting Luisa
González as, in her own words, the way the Correa party abused the country’s oil sector means
she could never endorse a Correa candidate. This leaves the door open for negotiations with
Noboa and while she may decide to remain neutral and not endorse Noboa, her party and the
2.7% of voters think along much the same lines and would likely jump to Noboa on the Least
Worst principle.
 Henry Kronfle: Although the right wing Kronfle only picked up 0.7% of the Presidential vote,
his PSC party did better at the parliamentary level this weekend and is expected to pick up
between 10 and 12 seats. That’s important, because the Noboa ADN party is expected to win
69 seats and only need 77 for an absolute majority in the next Congress. This makes a pact
and/or agreement with Noboa highly likely and Kronfle will certainly more than his 0.7% to bear
in the April run-off.
 Leonidas Iza: It’s not the first time we’ve seen the indigenous CONAIE group leader Iza as a
potential kingmaker, as he had the same potential role in 2023. Back then after consulting with
his party he decided to remain neutral and that’s the likely outcome this time around, too.
While ideologically left wing and what you’d normally expect to be a natural ally to RC and Luisa
González, Rafael Correa burned bridges with Iza and CONAIE bigtime many years ago by
reneging on several deals and that may end up haunting Luisa the same way it did in 2023.
Today Monday he’s told the press he will consult with the party before they make any collective
27

decision and we’re sure to hear about Luisa trying to convince him to come on board (again,
she needs to shake off the shadow of Correa in round two to stand a chance).
Of the three, Iza is the potential kingmaker again…and he knows it. He knows González and
her/Correa’s RC party almost certainly need to reach a deal with him to garner enough votes,
Iza also knows that if he and his party remain neutral in the run-off, more of his party faithful
would choose Noboa over Luisa as least-worst (such is the hatred for all things Correa among
the indigenous of Ecuador). Therefore, a key issue for us on the outside in the next two months
will be whether Iza and CONAIE cut a deal with either of the run-off candidates and move to
endorse, because such a deal would almost certainly include restrictions on mining permitting
and development, along with other hot button issues at CONAIE (e.g. Yasuni oil). Put simply,
the less you hear about Leonidas Iza in the next two months, the better and this desk will be
monitoring his moves carefully. As stated on several occasions before, he’s an astute and
experienced political operator and one of the sharpest brains in his country’s political scene, no
matter what you might think of his politics.
The bottom line: We’re going into the run-off show with two more months of noise to get
through, with tight first round result that still favours Noboa, but less than we expected. As
things stand today (Monday evening) I’d consider Noboa a 70% chance for the win and
those are still good odds, the likelihood is that of a repeat of 2023 when the run-off went to
Noboa. However, we also need to keep an eye on Leonidas Iza and that CONAIE vote block
because if they manage to find enough common ground with either candidate, it would change
the dynamic in two ways. Firstly, an Iza deal with Noboa would make Noboa a red hot
favourite, while a deal with Luisa González would make her a probable favourite. Secondly, any
deal struck with CONAIE would be bad news for the mining industry, as their terms would
almost certainly include measures to slow down mining development. Frankly, a neutral Iza
would be better for us than an Iza who endorses Noboa, as that would suggest his mandate to
develop mining was diluted.
As things stand today, I’m happy to hold my exposure to Ecuador via Salazar Resources (which
closed at 10c today Monday, so half a penny dropped today and not a big concern) and I’m
ready to add to that with Lumina Gold (LUM.v, see above today) if circumstances dictate
(LUM.v closed up today 4c at 59c). However, be clear I chose those charges because their
among the “least worst” when it comes to political and community risk and if any deal is cut
with CONAIE, it’s not difficult to imagine the more controversial projects such as Loma Larga
and Warintza in the line of fire.
Market Watching
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): A hold/sell call on Feb 23rd
Just when I thought it couldn’t get any more painful or embarrassing to hold Eldorado Gold
(EGO) (ELD.to) as a mid-tier trade on gold, it got a whole lot more painful. We already knew
EGO would have to adjust its capex and/or timeline for its big Skouries development project in
Greece, as the company had already told us as much in its January 14th NR announcing YE
production. That day, an otherwise decent NR with solid production numbers (particularly from
Lamaque) was ruined with a warning on Skouries and once the company has given some
background, it closed the section with this:
We are evaluating the impact of these and other factors on the project schedule and capital cost.
We expect to provide a full project update, including an updated capital cost estimate and project
schedule, in February 2025.
That was enough to scupper the share price at the time, as noted in IKN818 dated January
19th and the Fundamental Analysis note that day, “Eldorado Gold 4q24 production.” After
chewing over the evidence and digesting the 9.1% drop EGO suffered that week, due entirely
to that pre-announcement:
“I don’t mind admitting this one hurt, the position has grown and with gold up, it’s not a good
feeling to be underwater on the stock picked out to ride the rising gold price. I’m going to defer
28

the decision to continue with this trade until we have those 4q24 numbers and I don’t begrudge
EGO for the way they’ve disclosed the bad news at Skouries, they tend to be matter-of-fact
about such matters and don’t try market strategies to cushion bad news, what you see is what
you get. However, that does mean the market may have over-reacted and assumed too much
bad news about Skouries, particularly with the capex total. If there’s a quarter of extra time
required to finish the build-out then so be it, but with gold doing what it’s done and the company
reporting such a good quarter, it’s unlikely they can’t cover any extra cash organically.
Bottom line: A painful NR out of EGO that didn’t do my ego (pun intended) any good at all. Or
perhaps it did, as deflated is probably better than inflated. Holding for the next month and then
a hold/sell decision forthcoming.”
In other words, it looked to me as though EGO and its warning on Skouries had baked in the
bad news early and while there may be nuances, there’s no reason to expect any further selling
come the day we’re given details. Which goes to show how stupid I am about this stock:
That’s the 10 day stock price chart for Eldorado Gold and Thursday brought another waterfall
drop on the same subject, the company publishing this NR (20) on Wednesday evening:
“Eldorado Gold Provides Skouries Project Update; 2025 Detailed Company Production & Cost
Guidance; Updated Three-Year Growth Profile; Conference Call Details”. This table laid out the
bad news:
In the words of the NR, “First production at Skouries is now expected in the first quarter of
2026, followed by commercial production expected in mid-2026. The revised Project capital cost
estimate incorporates an increase of approximately $143 million or 15.5% over prior capital
cost estimates, to a total of approximately $1.06 billion.”
That was worse than we’d guesstimated in IKN818. A capex increase was a given and we said
as much, but U$143m is a lot to add to a project that’s already seen a major cost hike. As for
the timeline, we’d estimated an extra quarter added and a mine that would manage to come
online by 1q26, so seeing two quarters of implied delay was another downer. It wasn’t all bad,
because one of our assumptions came to pass as EGO confirmed that it wouldn’t need to return
to the capital markets to raise capex cash, stating, “The project remains fully funded through a
combination of our balance sheet and remaining un-drawn amounts under the
Company’s Skouries Project finance facility. Year-end liquidity has been further augmented by
the divestment of our G Mining Ventures holding in January 2025 for proceeds of $155 million.”
However, overall the news was worse than expected and while we can argue about the depth
of the sell-off, it was going to happen. Particularly as the second section of last week’s NR
offered 2025 and longer-term production guidance in which EGO guided 2026 at between 460k
29

and 500k oz Au, That compares to its 2024 production of 520,293 oz Au and our estimate of
515k oz for this coming year. Another downer.
It’s a horrid feeling to have picked exactly the wrong producer stock to ride a gold upmove,
with gold performing beyond expectations but due to its mishaps, the vehicle still negative YTD
and I feel plain stupid for snatching defeat from the jaws of vistory in such a crass manner. I
should have stuck to my knitting and not bother with upper tier stocks, but of course I thought
I’d “identified value” in EGO and it wasn’t getting the credit it deserved for its strong and
organic growth pipeline. Ugh, stupid stupid stupid. [EDIT Monday] It was a relief to see the
stock rally 4% today, as it suggests the adjustment is over and EGO was oversold.
Having learned (the ahrd way) not to trade when angry I’ve decided to stick to the original plan
as noted in IKN818 and decide what to do with this trade when EGO files its quarter, as that’s
fairly close at hand with the financials coming post close Thursday Feb 20th and the ConfCall
the next day (link to that here (21)). Therefore that weekend’s edition of The UIKN Weekly,
IKN823, will be when I go over the numbers and make a hold/sell call.
Conclusion
We close IKN821 with two points:
 Lumina Gold (LUM.v) looks remarkably cheap and with a clear window of opportunity
between now and when the Feas Study is published. By then we’ll also know whether
the probable Noboa victory becomes reality, which would de-risk the trade even
further.
 It would be great to go back into the black on Rio2 by this time next week. For better
or worse I held every single share through the bad times and it’s back as a substantial
part of the overall portfolio. Next move, Minera Alamos?
 With 34 pages last week and 35 this, it may arrive late but at least there’s plenty of
content. Can’t guarantee this length next weekend, but will make sure it leaves on time
 Time for bed. I may well be offline until Friday.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/02/schedule-for-week-of-february-9-2025.html
(2) https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=AGDEs6Zp
(3) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-grows-gold-and-copper-reserves/default.aspx
(4) https://redpineexp.com/red-pine-drilling-expands-gold-system-at-wawa-gold-project/
(5) https://www.provenancegold.com/20250206-provenance-gold-engages-drilling-contractor-for-march-drill-
mobilization-and-commences-drone-based-airborne-magnetic-survey-at-its-eldorado-property
(6) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2025/sabre-gold-acquisition-closed/
(7) https://mineraalamos.com/site/assets/files/4260/mai-cp-2025-02.pdf
30

(8) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-announces-official-start-of-construction-of-fenix-gold-mine
(9) https://www.rmoutlook.com/national-news/bc-fast-tracking-18-mining-and-energy-projects-in-face-of-us-tariff-threat-
10184806
(10) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-hits-three-month-high-heading-for-best-week-since-september/
(11) https://www.reuters.com/latam/negocio/AK7IPEBIXFPOTIJ3KPXUHAQ4P4-2025-02-07/
(12) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-adopts-shareholder-rights-plan/
Arizona Sonoran Adopts Shareholder Rights Plan
(13) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-provides-2024-recap-and-2025-work-plan/
(14) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NJ4DRg-gn8
(15) https://newgold.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/NEW-GOLD-ADVISES-OF-SENIOR-MANAGEMENT-
CHANGE/default.aspx
(16) https://app.webinar.net/LpXO3lgJWEK
(17) https://barksdaleresources.com/news/news-release/436-arksdalennounceseoransition20250206050502.html
(18) https://latin-metals.com/news-releases/latin-metals-discovers-visible-gold-at-la-flora-project-santa-cruz-argentina/
(19) https://elecciones2025.cne.gob.ec/#
(20) https://www.eldoradogold.com/investors/news-releases/eldorado-gold-provides-skouries-project-update-2025-
detailed-company
(21) https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=dSeOP9wo
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
32

Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
33

Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
34