IKN #819Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 819, January 26th 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, A less consequential FOMC week.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying AbraSilver (ABRA.v): Three’s a charm.
Stocks to Follow: Libero Copper (LBC.v), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Barrick Gold Corp
(GOLD) (ABX.to), Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v), Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v),
Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Marimaca Copper
(MARI.to), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Atex Resources (ATX.v), Element 29 (ECU.v), American Eagle
(AE.v), Trilogy Metals (TMQ.to) (TMQ).
The Producer Basket: Overview, B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF),
OceanaGold Corp (OGC.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Barksdale Resources (BRO.v), Kodiak Copper (KDK.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Mining company trickery, Ecuador election update, Mexico: More
on Sheinbaum’s pro-mining stance, Colombia: Petro tips his hand on mining.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m buying a starter position in AbraSilver (ABRA.v) in the days ahead. Reasons for the
purchase and why scaling in is the way to approach this trade in the main fundies section.
We’re also sellers of Libero Copper (LBc.v), it’s time to crystallize that loss and move on so find
that brief write-up in Stocks to Follow.
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main Fundamentals section today is an overview of our return to AbraSilver
(ABRA.v), a company I traded without much success in 2022 and 2023. It’s all about the
financials this time. Three’s a charm, they say.
 Stocks to Follow sees me bowing to the inevitable and calling the sale on Libero Copper
(LBC.v), a misfiring loser of a trade that I should have sold already. More fool me for
getting caught in its latest downdraft. However, there’s other and more pleasant work in
Stocks to Follow as we catch up on developments in several of our covered stocks. For
example in Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v), which said all the right things in its webinar
presentation on Thursday. More relazed about holding that one now.
 The Copper Basket checks out the latest fundamental supply and demand data and we
note, once again, that copper’s market reality is more bullish than its prevailing narrative.
 Regional Politics provides more evidence (or perhaps that’s anti-evidence) that Mexico is
on the right track and we reiterate our conviction that Noboa will win in Ecuador next
month. Now is the time to position in Ecuador exposed stocks, but not any old story as
the note on Loma Larga testifies.
 Other things as well. There are always other things.
1

A less consequential FOMC week
No big intro this edition, we cover the basics of FOMC Tuesday and Wednesday and done. The
FOMC meeting is the scheduled centerpiece macro event of the week, with the press release
scheduled as (nearly) always for Wednesday 2pm ET and the Jay Powell presser half an hour
later. The likelihood of any changes to base rates is either slim or none according to all sources,
with Goldman Sachs just one of those (1):
The January FOMC meeting is unlikely to offer much new information. The statement might note that
the labor market appears to have stabilized but is unlikely to provide strong guidance about the March
meeting or the timeline for further cuts. ... Our baseline forecast calls for two 25bp cuts this year in
June and December and one more in 2026 because we expect inflation to keep falling and do not
expect tariffs to restrain the FOMC indefinitely.
So all eyes will be on the small print, as well as ears on the Jay Powell presser to glean clues
and potentially move markets using the secondary information and conjecture. However, in all
likelihood this week’s FOMC isn’t going to be a major factor on the markets, for that we have
the second week of Trump 2.0 and on that, it’s anyone’s guess what he drops on us next. Just
look at Colombia vs USA this weekend.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying AbraSilver (ABRA.v): Three’s a charm
“The luck of the third adventure is proverbial.”
Elizabeth Barrett Browning, 1839
Shares out: 128m
Options: 6m
Warrants: zero
RSUs: 0.08m
Fully diluted: 134.1m
Current share price: C$2.78
Market Cap: C$355.8m (U$249.1m)
Approx cash per S/O: 7c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.70=CAD$1
Preamble
Today's main fundamentals section is dedicated to the reason why i have decided to buy shares
in AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v) (ABBRF) in the week ahead, but before we get into it
there are a couple of caveats readers should take into account:
1) This will be a starter position, perhaps a quarter of the target amount deployed this coming
week. There are specific reasons to scale into this trade, see below for more.
2) I don't have a good track record with this company. The bad trade record started in April
2022 when I bought some shares, only to sell them almost immediately in a wider portfolio
rebalance. Even though it wasn't the biggest
of trades, it was still a loss of 21% in a brief
period. then came a second bite at this
particular cherry in December 2022 and
once I'd added to the position a couple of
times, the cost average was a pre-rollback
C$0.36 (now $1.80). This was a bigger
trade and eventually closed for another loss
in October 2023 of 22.2% (pre-commish). It
was also a clear error to close when I did,
as a look at the five-year chart shows:
2

My closing price of a split-adjusted C$1.30 means stupid me left a double on the table.
Hindsight and all that, plus of course we did manage to make money on the move in gold and
silver as from 1q24 when it came, but not in ABRA.v again and that leaves me concerned about
my read on this company. It’s also the reason for the quote from the Victorian era poet above.
It also begs the question…
Why return to ABRA now?
Good question, thanks for asking. As noted in last week’s intro note “Silver: Bullish not
moonish”, you don’t have to believe the latest conspiracy theory or half-baked promo on the
metal to be bullish about the prospects of silver in
2025. Also as noted last week, with just Aftermath
Silver (AAG.v) and the small and even more
speculative IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) in the portfolio, I
feel light on silver exposure. And with silver miners
showing good form last week even though the metal
only managed to match its bigger sibling gold, signs
are good.
This brought the current field of silver junior
investments into focus and, as usual, it’s thin gruel
in this particular sub-sector. There’s still a wide
selection of “leverage to silver” trades out there,
including the vehicle for our recent trade winner
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) and I considered returning to that trade, or perhaps one of a similar
ilk. However that’s not the preferred strategy here at The IKN Weekly and while we did recently
launch a handful that I’d happily sell for a decent return in a short period, including two
specific, near-term outlook trades (ASCU, GOLD), this desk prefers focusing on undervalued
quality. Of all the potential “dog silver trade” BCM still makes most appeal, I didn’t discard it
lightly and those of you looking for a higher risk/reward option in the silver space would get my
full support if you went there instead of to ABRA, but in the end quality will out and once we
move up the league table, finding even reasonably valued silver trades is difficult. Aya Silver
(AYA.to) looks good these days but has the market cap to match its positive outlook, then MAG
Silver (MAG) continues to impress as a cash-generating machine that’s valued to near-
perfection. Long story short, as much as I tried to ignore it AbraSilver (ABRA.v) kept nudging at
me and with its 43-101 compliant updated Pre-Feasibility Study was filed to SEDAR, there was
every reason to at least revisit its numbers. When I did, I was more than merely surprised at
the change in project economics, I was left a little dumbfounded. The recent work at the
project, the improvement in the metals price deck and the advent of Argentina’s RIGI
investment incentive plans have combined to transform project economics and make this a
compelling opportunity. To set the scene with context, the last time we looked at ABRA at
Diablillos in any detail was IKN707 dated December 2022. The project has developed
somewhat, with the JAC zone now part of the economic study and grades and tonnages
tightened, but what really matters here are the two major financial input changes
1) Metals prices: back in IKN707 we used a baseline metals price assumption for our target
price of U$22/oz silver and U$1,700/oz gold. That’s a long time ago and even with the hike in
capex and opex, the current metals price deck allows for wide operating margins. Indeed, ABRA
continues to lowball its baseline metals prices at a very reasonable U$25.50/oz for silver and
U$2,050/oz for gold and still returns attractive cash flow and profits. As we’ll see in a moment,
things get very interesting at metals prices more in line with today.
2) RIGI: As Diablillos has an upfront capex estimate of U$543.5m and a total capex estimate of
U$646.4m, the project easily qualifies for the new Argentina RIGI incentives for FDI. What I
didn’t realize before opening the PFS last week was just how much Diablillos benefits from RIGI
(see chapter 22), as the company estimates that as well as providing guarantees of tax stability
that guarantees no extra tax burdens for the next 30 years, the combination of tax breaks from
a reduced corporate tax rate they pay 25% not 35%), accelerated depreciation on fixed assets
3

(deductibles) and no export duties combine to drop the total estimated project tax burden from
U$965m to U$536m, a saving of U$430m using its base case inputs. That's a massive incentive
to move forward with this project and make an investment commitment during he RIGI window
that runs until July 2026 (though it may be extended, we can't know that today).
Not everything has changed for the better in the last two years, however, as the capex bill is
now significantly higher. Already up when ABRA
released its first, pre-RIGI PFS in March last year,
capex has increased again since then and now stands
at an estimated total of U$646.4m. The company
justifies the increases as roughly equal parts of 1) the
demise of the “Dolar Blue” preferential exchange rate
that used to provide more bang per buck for incoming
FDI dollars. That’s fair enough, as Milei’s efforts to
open the country’s exchange rate and bring the Peso
to a free float means the project is now calculated on
hard dollar terms. The 2) a faster development period,
which means paying for more manpower to get the
project up and running more quickly, then 3) a change
in the mine plan, which sends more pre-strip to the waste pile (though there is the potential to
turn that “waste” into a low grade heap or dump leach side operation and harvest extra cash
flow, an option ABRA will consider for the FS in 2026). However, when we compare the savings
brought by RIGI to the extra outlay now envisaged to bring Diablillos online during the RIGI
period, it’s a no-brainer call.
The Diablillos project presumes a 9,000tpd throughput from an open pit to a mill, producing
silver and gold for a 14 year mine life under the current plan. These tables show the annual
breakdown of the metals production mix and due to the nature of the deposit and the
generated mine plan, production and therefore revenues are heavily skewed toward silver in
the first years, with gold production then taking up the slack and responsible for the more
revenue in later years as the mine matures.
ABRA: Diablillos payable gold, per annum
As noted above, ABRA in its PFS has gone the
conservative route and uses a metals price deck
of U$25.50/oz for silver and U$2,050/oz for
gold. Once those are factored in to estimated
annual production, then adjustments made for
payable ounces (minor loss, no biggie), here’s
what happens in the chart right. Annual metals
revenue breakdown shows the bias toward silver
in the first years more clearly. However, if we go
a less conservative route (and assume prices
closer to today’s spot (though still under,
keeping things real) the upside to annual gross
4
00082 00042 00014 00037 00015 000401 00024 00035 00025 000611 00075 00019 000221 000701
ABRA: Diablillos payable silver, per annum oz Au
140000
120000
100000
80000 60000 40000
20000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
source: ABRA 43-101 PFS Year
912.4 491.61
115.71
144.01 693.7 218.6 991.31 213.01 744.4 531.2 596.4 983.2 815.1 127.1
Moz Ag
20
18
16
14
12 10 8 6
4
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
source: ABRA 43-101 PFS Year
ABRA: Payable revenues at ABRA base case price
deck
801
75
314
94
744
48
662
051
981
501
471
312
733
68
362
901
311
701
45
832
021
711
16
781
93
052
44
912
U$m
600
silver U$25.50/oz 500
gold U$2,050/oz
400
300
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
source: ABEA data, IKN calcs Year

revenues is clear. The chart below may look similar at first glance but check out the Y-axis:
ABRA: Payable revenues at IKN preferred price deck
5
721
37
684
26
525
701
313
091
222
331
402
072
693
901
903
831
331
531
46
203
141
841
27
732
64
713
25
872
U$m
700
600 silver U$30/oz
gold U$2,600/oz
500
400
300
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
source: ABEA data, IKN calcs Year
Suddenly, ABRA is making as much revenue from silver in its first years as it was from silver
and gold combined. What’s more, that uses a reasonably conservative price assumption and if
you do what I’ve done and play with an Excel sheet for a few days, the upside potential at
ABRA Diablillos becomes nothing short of mouthwatering. To illustrate the potential without
running a dozen scenarios, the following chart includes five price decks:
 The ABRA base case of U$20.50/oz silver and U$2,050/oz gold (as seen above)
 The IKN base case of U$28/oz silver and U$2,500/oz gold
 The IKN preferred case of U$30/oz silver and U$2,600/oz gold (as seen above)
 The IKN base case of U$32/oz silver and U$2,700/oz gold
 The IKN base case of U$35/oz silver and U$2,800/oz gold
Getting all that onto one visual makes it a little busy, but it works okay and here’s the result:
U$m ABRA: Revenues cases
800 727.69 ABRA base case subtotal
700 IKN base case subtotal
631.93
IKN preferred subtotal
600
upside case subtotal
500 bull case subtotal
530.58
400
300
200
100
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
source: company data, IKN calcs and ests Year
Again, those line may not immediately jump out as massively different but on closer
examination, the difference between the annual revenues in each case is stark. We take as our
example Year 2 of full production when the metals mix and ABRA price deck predicts payable
revenues of U$530.58m. Just by assuming our preferred case (which is still conservative
compared to today’s spot prices), revenues increase by over U$100m to U$631.93m and in our
bullish case scenario, revenues climb to U$727.69m, basically U$200m extra in top line
revenues in a single year. What that does to project revenues needs to be fully understood and
to do so, we can compare the project
economics as laid out in the PFS to our own,
real world assumptions. This screenshot
(right) is a chart from the PFS showing
cumulative post-tax cash flow. It assumes
operating costs from the PFS that revolve
around U$140m per year (give or take a
couple of million each side, depending on

the year, details as per the PFS), the new higher capex total and the project operating under
RIGI.
In its 14 year mine life, the base case metals prices generate a net post tax total of U$1,231m
and very impressive that is too. However, even that strong result pales next to what the higher
metals prices decks do. For our example we don’t go crazy, instead keeping the alternative deck
at the “IKN Preferred” model (U$30/oz Ag, U$2,600/oz Au) and run the numbers again:
U$m ABRA: Diablillos PFS post-tax cumulative cash flow, three scenarios
2195 2182
2200 2075
2000 1892
1776
1800 base case 1661
1600 IKN case 1396 1493 1813 1912 1878
1400 IKN extra costs case 1166 1556 1651
1200 901 1239 1315 1462
1000 1244 1231
670 1030 1150
800 496 786 922 984 1040
4 6 0 0 0 0 222 576 626 780 828
423
200 -91 -132 170 301 443
0 188
-372 -445
-200 1
--9911 -457
-400 -163
-252
-600 --337722 -479 source: company data, IKN ests and calcs
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Now Diablillos generates post tax cash flow of U$2,182m, i.e. over two billion dollars. However,
we’re also aware that costs may climb along with the metals prices, so our above model runs a
third “IKN extra costs case” that assumes opex increases by 15% compared to the ABRA
assumptions over life of mine. Even then, the project generates post-tax (post royalties, post
capex, post sustaining capex, post opex, post closure costs, post everything) cash flow of
U$1.878Bn. Or if you prefer:
 An acquirer pays double the current share price for ABRA, i.e. C$5.76, of a total of
just under $500m at current forex
 It spends U$640m to build the mine
 It nets over U$1.3Bn over 14 years of operations
In other words, even if the acquirer of ABRA paid double this weekend’s share price to buy
ABRA and in hard cash, it secures a highly attractive package. It’s fair to say that since I last
looked at ABRA closely, the combo of metals prices and RIGI has transformed the project
economics. Back in December 2022 I was reasonably bullish and interested enough to open a
position, these days the numbers make this a compelling opportunity.
Therefore I am a buyer of AbraSilver (ABRA.v) and will begin to scale in as from the week
ahead. However, as much as I like the look for the project economics and the potential upside
for the share price (it’s an obvious buyout target), this coming week will be a starter position
only as we may see a better buying opportunity in the near future. To explain why, we check
out the company financials via some of our Usual Suspect charts (below). Beginning with the
balance sheet overview, we don’t project these into the future quarters because there are a
couple of standouts on each side of the ledger to note from the last few reports.
ABRA.v: Assets
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
6 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$m ABRA.v: Liabilities per qtr
11
fixed 10
other current 9
cash
8
7
6 5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: company filings
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LT liabs
current liabs

ABRA has expensed everything at Diablillos (and its secondary La Coipita copper project) so
there’s non inkling of how valuable this project is on the books. However, we do get to see the
rhythm of cash spend and with most quarters seeing drill work happening, the company has
spent treasury aggressively over the years. Meanwhile over at liabilities, the major item is the
U$7m left to pay on the option for Diablillos (to SSRI Mining) in order to secure 100%
ownership. That’s due paid in the middle of this year, which is why the liability is now in the
currents.
The next two charts include cash position (below left) independently as well as projecting into
the next couple of quarters, then working capital (below right).
24 ABRA.v: Working Capital per qtr
22
20
18 16
14
12 10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Due to a wind down of drilling activity at Diablillos and the exercising of some derivative shares
(mostly warrants, some options) we expect ABRA’s cash position to have held up reasonably
well in Q4, but the spend at the company never slows down for very long and while we applaud
the company’s aggressive stance, it does deplete treasury quickly. While over at working
capital, we see the weight of that upcoming U$7m
option payment on the columns and a working cap
total that’s expected to be close to zero come the
end of the current quarter. Also to its credit, ABRA
is transparent about expenditure line items and
provides plenty of detail for observers. This chart
shows the two main cash outlays, with “evaluation
and exploration” covering what happens at the
projects and “total admin” its corporate burn.
There’s more to “Eval & Exp” than simply drilling,
however, as that covers camp costs, assay labs,
met work, some of the consultants and other
sundries, so if we drill down a little deeper (pun intended) into its financials, we can see exactly
how much of its treasury makes it into the ground. In the reporting period 2020 to 3q24 (the
last reported quarter), ABRA has spent a total of C$36.741m on drilling Diablillos.
7
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
source company filings
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ABRA.v: Cash treasury per qtr
26
24
22
20 18
16
14 12
10
8
6
4
2
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings
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ABRA: exploration and evaluation expenses, per qtr
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m ABRA: Drilling expenses only, per qtr
other 8.0
other La Coipita 7.0
Drilling La Coipita 6.0
other Diablillos 5.0
Drilling Diablillos 4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
source: company filings, IKN calcs
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
ABRA.v: Admin, Exploration/Evaluation expenses
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
C$m
Drilling La Coipita
Drilling Diablillos
source: company filings, IKN calcs
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$m
eval & exp
total admin exp
source: company filings/IKN ests

That's a fair clip and notably, since the end of the Covid quarters it has drilled the property in
every single quarter bar two, i.e. the pause it took in 4q23 and 1q24 between the end of that
drill program and the publication of its PFS. Put another way, in the last five years, ABRA has
put 49.1% of its evaluation and exploration expenses into direct drilling. That moves to 54.7%
if we discount 4q23 and 1q24 when the drills weren't turning at Diablillos. However, those
percentages include its work at La Coipita, so if we focus on Diablillos alone ABRA has spent
55.7% of its E+E cash on drilling Diablillos.
Add in the administrative expenses (corp, chart above) and for the same period, 1q20 to 3q24,
the total spend has just topped the C$100m mark at C$101.672m. That means 36.1% of the
money you see in the chart above went into the ground at Diablillos. And quite honestly, that’s
not bad at all. However, it should be clear by now (and if not it’s time to say it) that ABRA’s
treasury position is insufficient for its 2025
plans. Not only will it continue to explore ABRA.v: Split adj shares out
and develop Diablillos, but it has that final
option payment to make and all on top of
the standard corporate burn. With an IKN-
estimated 130.7m shares out at the end of the current quarter and a company that’s never been afraid of going to
market to raise working capital, that’s
what we’re about to get from AbraSilver.
Which is why I’m only a partial buyer of
ABRA in the days to come. While the
company may have a shareholder-positive
trick up its sleeve and announce a new strategic purchase of shares. In the last 12 months
we’ve seen Kinross (KGC) become a 9.9% strategic, ABRA now also has Argentina power
generation company Central Puerto as a 4% holder and as that company is obviously keen to
diversify into mining, they may be interested in taking a large part of the next raise. The
upcoming placement may not become a
speedbump to the share price but until it happens,
I plan to err on the side of caution and not
commit all my stack at once. Now is the time to
open on ABRA and get extra silver exposure, once
we know the terms of its next raise we can make
a more informed decision and add to the position.
Finally, once the upcoming placement is public we
can attach a more accurate price target to this
trade. I don’t plan on leaving this without a target
price, but first things first.
Stocks to Follow
The eight losers (RPX.v, LBC.v, PGZ.v, OCI.v, ERO.to, SURG.v, IPT.v, PAU.cse) outnumbered
the seven winners (MAI.v, RIO.v, EGO, MARI.to, GOLD, ASCU.to, PGDC.v), with five unchanged
stocks (ARG.to, SRL.v, AAG.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v) making up the numbers, but despite the
unfavourable headcount, the personal portfolio had a good week as the winners tended to be at
the top of the table where there’s more money in play. The best winners in percentage terms
were Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up 25.0%) and Minera Alamos (MAI.v up 9.1%), the worst losers
were Libero Copper (LBC.v down 15.8%), Pan Global (PGZ.v down 13.8%) and IMPACT Silver
(IPT.v down 10.4%).
8
259.94 259.94 259.45
999.97 758.18 514.58 653.09 847.19 400.59 760.69 174.79 440.99 449.401 090.601 268.211 269.211 562.311 196.311 693.521 4.521 5.921 7.031
140
120
100
80 60
40
20
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings
serahs
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With the sale of Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) we’re down to 19 open positions, one under our
self-imposed maximum. Eleven are in the green, one is UNCH, eight are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.30 42.9% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.67 -16.3% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$15.53 -6.2% 2025 guidance a problem
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.67 8.4% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.62 84.3% Quality Cu developer
Salazar Res SRL.v STR BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.095 18.8% New Ecuador trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.11 0.0% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Libero Copper LBC.v SELLING C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.2525 -25.7% cauterize small spec loser
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.125 -34.2% Cu jr, disappointing to date
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.055 -8.3% top fundy value, illiquid
Barrick Gold GOLD hold U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$16.13 2.7% near-term Au fliptrade
Ero Copper ERO BUY C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$20.36 5.1% near/medium term Cu fliptrade
Aftermath Silver AAG.v BUY $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.50 17.6% New silver trade, cheap
Surge Copper SURG.v BUY $0.11 22-Dec-24 C$0.095 -13.6% bulk copper in good address
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.215 -28.3% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.05 150.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.27 217.6% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.125 -72.2% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to Jan'25 C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% NT trade, took profit
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): SELLING. I should have listened to my gut feeling. This time last
week I was cooling quickly over this trade, what with the lack of reaction from its first drill
assay out of Mocoa and the prospect of waiting several weeks for the next drill results. But I
managed to talk myself out of cutting the loss at the 30c-or-so price because (and I sheepishly
quote myself) it was “…too cheap to sell” and I felt like I’d be “…leaving money on the table.”
And with that, stupid me got to hold into this NR out Wednesday evening (2):
VANCOUVER, BC, Jan. 22, 2025 /CNW/ - (TSXV: LBC) (OTCQB: LBCMF) (DE: 29H) ("Libero" or the
"Company") is pleased to announce that it has established an "at-the-market" equity distribution program (the
"ATM Program"). The ATM Program allows Libero to issue and sell, at its discretion, common shares in the
capital of Libero ("Common Shares") that would have the aggregate sales amount of up to $5,000,000, to the
public from time to time through Research Capital Corporation (the "Agent"), acting as agent. All Common
Shares sold under the ATM Program will be sold at the prevailing market price at the time of the sale, directly
through the TSX Venture Exchange or any other recognized marketplace upon which the Common Shares
are listed, quoted or otherwise traded in Canada. Libero currently intends to use the net proceeds from the
ATM Program to the extent raised, for exploration of the Mocoa copper-molybdenum project and for general
corporate purposes.
The backdoor dilution route used by scoundrels, the ATM will hang over the stock price like a
Sword of Damocles for as long as it’s in operation and the reaction of the share price was
understandable:
9

Another sharp leg down on heavy volume that had me sighing and wishing for the “value exit”
of 30c, the same price I’d sniffily refused the week before. However, the reasons to sell now far
outweigh the reasons to hold and it’s time to cauterize the bleeding, sell and take the loss:
 The original plan was to trade around the first drill assay result, that’s now behind us.
 There’s a significant wait in store for the second drill hole result.
 This was always a speculative trade, high risk in nature. It’s also fairly small and the
financial damage is minor, despite this being a large percentage loss (the real damage is to
my ego …and having to look at this red ink on the Closed Positions list for the rest of the
year beings its own salutary warning, not such a bad thing).
 And now, with this shady management team deciding to take the sneaky, stealth route to
share dilution in order to raise working capital (that it probably doesn’t need in the near-
term), the sell call is obvious.
Be clear, this failure is all about me no matter my opinion of the people running this company. I
knew what I was getting myself into before opening the trade and went in eyes-wide-open
about the shady way in which this team operates. That was the main reason I didn’t plan on
staying around for a long time, but my error was also personal arrogance in that I thought I
could “second guess the scumbags”. Wrong and what’s more, they have all sorts of other tricks
up their sleeves at any given moment. So even if LBC rallies and shoots to 50c the day after I
sell, I’m not going to regret selling this trade in the days ahead and taking profits. Lesson
learned and this position will be closed for a substantial percentage loss by this time next
weekend.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): POSITION CLOSED. As advertised. It took until midweek (no
point trying to be cute with Monday’s thin market and Tuesday all about POTUS47) and when
buyers started to show, I put mine on sale at last week’s closing price and regretted it a little,
as C$1.70 and above was also popular. But no complaints forthcoming, as the idea was to
make around 20% with a near-term trade. Job done, if only they were all this cut and dried.
As for the future and to reply to a couple of readers in one shot (thank you for your
correspondence) I agree that ASCU has every chance of going higher, I agree that it’s in the
frame as a “Trump Trade” on easier and quick permitting and yes, its main payable copper also
makes for a positive story for 21st century EV marketing. If you see better times ahead and
brighter days for ASCU and a share price that could blast from here to $2 and to $3, that’s fair
enough. For me, this was a simple trade and part of a wider portfolio strategy, so if I leave
money on the table then fair enough. As noted in IKN817 two weekends ago I don’t mind
looking stupid so just the money, please, fame is for others.
Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD) (ABX.to): It’s doesn’t say “May Sell” here any longer even
though the personal plan has not changed and I’m still looking to flip GOLD back for a near-
term win. However, what has changed is the timescale because GOLD has quietly decided to
move its goalposts. For the first time ever and without any prior warning, it is apparently going
into a quarterly (or annual) financial report without pre-announcing its production or sales.
Before 4q24, every GOLD quarter has come with a pre-announcement for production and sales
10

in the first three weeks after quarter end, often with guidance on operating costs and AISC. So
it’s somewhat ironic that the quarter I decide to trade GOLD around its expected improvement
in production it decides to hold back the information.
All we’ve had on the subject is this January 16th NR (3):
Toronto — Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD)(TSX:ABX) will release its Q4 2024 results on
Wednesday, February 12, 2025. President and CEO Mark Bristow will host a live presentation of
the results that day at 11:00 EST, with an interactive webinar linked to a conference call.
Participants will be able to ask questions.
It leaves me with the choice of closing the trade down now and walking away at breakeven, or
leaving it open for another three weeks. I choose the latter, as the risk of holding this
dysfunctional gold producer for an extra three weeks (or so) is minimal and isn’t likely to
change things much as long as the gold price doesn’t
collapse on us completely. But I also remember what
GOLD can do at its year-end report and conference
call, such as two years ago in February 2023 (see
chart right. That 13% rally was part of the 20%
difference GOLD put on that month, with the market
cheering GOLD in particular due to better than
expected bottom line earnings, plus guidance for the
year that included lower than expected costs (which
they didn’t achieve but hey…guidance…).
Long story short, I’m going to hold GOLD into its
earnings date and once we’re through that, more than
likely sell whatever the result turns out to be and
while holding into a mining company earnings report is often an easy way of kissing money
goodbye, I’m willing to risk it this time.
Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v): Two items in one brief note:
Trading first and, though it looks pretty on the table, we’re
still best ignoring the 5c price level as it’s a product of wafer
thin volume. If you are considering this stock, the price
frame is 3c to 4c.
Second some real news and on site, PGDC has begun the
development process of its Calcatreu gold mine project in Rio
Negro. The company has announced (4) the tender process
for the first stages of construction, including the
improvement of the 17km dirt road that connects the project
to the world, early earthworks and the employee camp
construction (expected workforce of 100 during the construction phase, 300 during operations).
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): If we ignore that brief period of Eric Sprott induced overbuying in
late October, AAG has been a steady performer since the metallurgy report (that got me
interested enough to buy) and, as this chart (right)
shows, has done slightly better than its silver peer
stocks (SIL ETF proxy) and the metal (SLV proxy).
Fair to say that buying when I did at 42.5c was
good timing.
We had news from the company on Thursday 23rd
(5), the appointment of London-based Galliant
Partners as financial advisors with a remit to market
the company to its contact and client base, with an
emphasis on promoting the manganese potential
that Berenguela offers. Fair enough.
11

Orecap Inv (OCI.v): Our standard tracking table:
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.435 5.08 2.1
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.135 0.01 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.475 3.51 1.4
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.275 1.15 0.5
XXIX.v 39.10 0.115 4.50 1.8
MERG.v 5.125 0.035 0.18 0.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 15.17 6.1
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total $16.37 6.6c
At 247.714 S/O
American Eagle (see Copper Basket) is back to the price at which we bought in August last year
(please note, not July as erroneously noted in the 2024 Closed Position table until this weekend,
my thanks to reader ML for spotting the error), while Awalé has seen some buying recently but
still isn’t threatening to break out yet. OCI lost the predicted half cent on the week and is back
to a 20% arb, which is its baseline position. This is the price at which to accumulate, if so
desired.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): On the other hand our other,
more speculative trade on silver (the archetype “leverage
to…” cliché stock) isn’t showing at all:
Cannot help but think its recent highlighting of
improvements at its Plomosas growth project is a prelude
to a placement in order to raise capital for Plomosas. IPT
is a small trade and, in theory at least, here to provide fast
upside if silver moves significantly higher.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): Another constructive looking chart on
the week, RIO.v is getting solid bids now that photos of
the construction activity at Fenix are doing the rounds and
showing the world this thing is for real. Only a matter of
time before it breaks above 70c and re-rates to a new
rung. Tremendous value at this price deck at the moment,
even if we pretend that the ignore the strength in gold
doesn’t affect a gold stock which hasn’t made it to
production yet.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): No NR out of RPX so far
this year and a company that’s now ten weeks into its
current 25,000m drill campaign, RPX traded back to 11c
on Friday and as this chart shows (right) that’s the right
price for the patient accumulators. Even though it’s the
cold quarter up at Wawa, we should start seeing the
newsflow from its current drill program begin soon as the
planned holes tend not to be too deep and are all about
extending the Jubilee Shear mineralization envelope, both
on strike and what the team has identified as a likely zone
for new tonnage under the known shear.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): More solid fundies news out from MARI on Friday, when the
company announced (6) that its application to list in the Australian ASX market was moving
forward well. Here’s an excerpt:
12

Under the Prospectus, the Company will offer one hundred (100) common shares in the Company
(the “Shares”) in the form of CHESS Depository Interests (“CDIs”) at an issue price of A$6.00 per CDI
to raise gross proceeds of A$600 (the “Offer”). Each CDI will represent one underlying Share. The
Prospectus will also enable the Company to comply with the admission requirements of Chapters 1
and 2 of the ASX Listing Rules, as part of its application for admission to the official list of ASX. The
Offer is expected to open on or around Tuesday, 4 February 2025, and is expected to close on
Tuesday, 11 February 2025, with the expected commencement of trading of CDIs on the ASX to be
on or around Thursday, 13 March 2025.
In other words, a nominal amount of new stock in order to get the ball rolling, from that point
the bids can fight for the same float that’s available in the Canadian market (brokerage desks
have arbitrage to make). We like this news, an obvious new catalyst for price action to
supplement the main event in the weeks to come, the FS.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): In last weekend’s main fundies note “Eldorado Gold 4q24
production” I had a good old hand-wring and moan about the way in which the company’s very
decent Q4 production numbers had been overlooked due to the news it conveyed about likely
cost hikes and timeline delays at its big
Skouries expansion project. And this week
(chart right) the market decided that it
wasn’t so bad after all. All this is a
mystery to me. My position as stated last
weekend was that the good EGO Q4 had
been buried by the negative sentiment
caused from the Skouries announcement,
but while the drop seemed to be overdone
it wasn’t difficult to understand the new
round of nerves it had caused. A close
look at the EGO numbers shows a
company that can support a delay in
Skouries and the associated add to capex
without any recourse to the capital
markets and if the delay were limited to one quarter (perhaps two?), it wouldn’t be the end of
the world. Perhaps the positive week is a realization that EGO is making very good bank with
gold priced where it is and its Skouries delays are not a major problem, more a roadbump.
Staying long, happy to underscore the excellent price this Tier 2 offers compared to peers of
lesser standing at the moment.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): I thought long and hard about what to say and do about (MAI.v) in
today’s issue after the hour long webinar presentation on Thursday by company President Doug
Ramshaw. The option to go into a long rant was available, but in the end deciding to keep
things brief until we have the hard data on its Q4 and the Sabre Gold fusion in-hand. If not, I
risked adding too much of my own bias and positive spin when what we need at the moment is
to see whether MAI can get its momentum back and to do that, it needs permits. However, the
webinar (recording available here (7)) deserves a few words so in order of rough importance:
 I’m happy MAI has apparently kept its word on production at Santana. We don’t have exact
numbers yet, but know that a) production increased in line with expectations and b) the
mine ran at an operating profit in Q4, also as per expectations. That second point is most
welcome news, as it’s one of the “must comply” boxes ticked.
 The Sabre Gold merger will indeed close this coming week, that’s another of the main
boxes ticked. We also got a ballpark timeline for development, with a key milestone coming
around this time next year when MAI expects to be in the position to make a construction
decision.
 The first part of the webinar focused on country risk and clearly, the company is upbeat on
the new Mexico government and Ramshaw iterated many of the same points we gleaned
from the NPD press conference of two Mondays ago, as seen in IKN818 last weekend. His
team was obviously watching the event with the same agenda for mining related issues.
13

 Related to that, Ramshaw is happy about the progress mad eon the permitting track for
Cerro de Oro. Regarding the Santana pad extension permit, that’s now firmly in the court of
Semarnat and it’s up to the government bureau to decide when its awarded. Also on Cerro
de Oro, the overview came as a timely personal reminder as to why I’ve remained patient
about this trade. While the positive signals and achieved goals at Santana and Sabre in the
last few weeks are good and necessary, the real upside in this company is in its
development projects and at the current gold price, Cerro de Oro is set to become free cash
flow monsters (and Fortuna afterwards).
 We like the plans around “Minera Copper” (i.e. its two undeveloped and small copper oxide
assets), which will either be spun out in the next few quarters or the company will find
another path to add value to MAI shares via this spin-off initiative.
Overall it was a good performance (for want of a better word) by Ramshaw and I came away
more relaxed about holding the stock. However, once the feel-good factor had worn off it’s also
clear that until we get permits moving out of Mexico, MAI will not be able to demonstrate
anywhere near its full potential. There’s reason to be cheerful about the prospects for
permitting in Mexico this year and there’s plenty of
evidence that things are about to get better, but there’s
no point in setting ourselves up for the potential of
another false dawn so until we have solid facts on our
side, instead of just the potential or likelihood of permits
being awarded after this seemingly interminable delay, I’m
not stoking anyone’s fire (yours or mine). That said, the
way in which the stock price reacted to the presentation is
a fair reflection of the positive tone and optimism it
generated. This weekend finds me a more relaxed holder
of this under-performing large position but trying my best
to curb enthusiasm until we know more.
The Copper Basket
After four weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 1.58% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 522.16 1.90 32.9%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 390.14 0.13 0.0%
3 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 316.98 1.97 19.4%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 299.05 1.76 -7.4%
5 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 279.24 2.24 9.3%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 135.524 233.10 1.72 17.0%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 154.00 0.75 1.4%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 144.43 0.57 3.6%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 92.37 0.61 -9.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 72.84 0.435 -37.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 65.91 0.55 -12.7%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 29.67 0.115 4.5%
13 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 21.40 0.61 1.7%
14 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 83.164 14.97 0.18 12.5%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 14.41 0.2525 -19.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 1.58%
The 2025 Copper Basket average is back in the green, so a hearty cheer for the eight winners
(ATX.v, SOLG.to, TMQ.to, ASCU.to, FDY.to, ECU.v, KBX.cse, PM.cse) that beat out the seven
14

losers (ALDE.v, REG.v, BIG.v, AE.v, HCH.v, XXIX.v, LBC.v). There were bigger winners in the
mix as well, starting with Atex (ATX.v up 16.2%) and followed by Trilogy (TMQ.to up 13.9%)
and Element 29 (ECU.v up 10.0%). As for the losers, the biggest hit was taken by Libero
Copper (LBC.v down 15.8% and that sucks), with runner up Hot Chili (HCH.v down 9.0%).
As for copper-the-metal, there wasn’t much of a signal to help stocks decide their direction,
with volatile trading on light volumes and a copper price willing to move on geopolitical news
(which, now Trump is in charge, tends to contradict itself in hours). Newsflow consisted of
variations of “Copper Up Because Trump” and “Copper Down Because Trump”, pure heat and
zero light so we’re not going there this week, neither for the visual or the fundies commentary
segment. Instead of a near-term price
chart this week, we dial up a longer-
time range and 12 months of the
near-dated Comex futures contract
(currently HGH25). I’m not sure how
much we can read into that U$4.40/lb
upper line I’ve drawn in, but the lower
U$4.00/lb red line has shown more
and these days, is a floor price to be
reckoned with.
Moving on, the advent of the first
bulletin (8) from the International
Copper Study Group (ICSG) 2025,
with data up to and including
November, is a good time to catch up
on how the world supply and demand scene is looking for copper as we haven’t done this since
mid-last year and here are two charts from our tracking data, starting with world copper usage
per month (and please note the cut-down Y-axis, allowing the changes to be seen more easily).
World copper usage, per month
(NB: Cut-down y-axis)
15
3122 9422 1712 7802 3602
0871
3212 6512 9902 9212 8012 9302 1812 5312 0912 2022 6312
5381
4222 2512 3712 8522 8812 0812 5322 8212 3622 7912 4612
5091
6032 7622 1832 1812 6022 9922 8332 9732 1532 5522 2832 7991 8712 2922 9622 5612 4322 9622 9432 6332
9642
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000 1900
1800
1700
1600
pes tco von ced 1202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 2202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 3202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 4202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von
KMT
source: ICSG
Our sample runs from the end of the Covid crisis (we start September 2020) to November
2024, so we almost capture the whole of 2024 with this latest bulletin. The first thing to note is
the gradual increase in world demand, which has averaged around +3.0% per year and while
the ICSG currently forecasts 2024 to come in slightly lower (+2.6%), main customer China is
still driving demand at +3.0% in 2024. Secondly, please note the preliminary copper usage
estimate for November 2024 (ICSG normally makes minor adjustments as hard data becomes
available) which, at 2.469mmt, is a new all-time record for copper usage and not news that
easily fits in with the global slowdown narrative that some would like you to believe. So to
repeat a message from IKN814 in the days leading up to Christmas:
“We on this side of the trade should remember at all times that China, responsible for over
half the demand for copper in the entire world (around 55% at present) prefers to pay as
little as possible for its commodity inputs. True for them all of course, but particularly so for
those it does not produce in sufficient quantity itself and when it comes to metals, copper
is far and away its most import-dependent metal.”

Back in IKN814 dated December 22nd, copper had just dropped back to the U$4.10/lb line again
and the world was jawboning the type of narrative that keeps the speculators away from
copper. It’s worth considering that the people behind that message were almost certainly privy
to the information in the above chart regarding the record copper demand had just set. Then
when you add that to the second of our chosen charts from the ICSG dataset…
ICSG: Refined copper supply balance, per month
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
16
pes tco von ced 1202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 2202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 3202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 4202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von
kmt Cu
source: ICSG
…we see the way supply has failed to keep up with the new increase in demand. It’s interesting
to compare the shape of previous calendar years in this chart to that of 2024; We know the
world normally goes into supply surplus in the first couple of months of any given year (the
Chinese New Year celebrations and the way Chinese factories tend to stock up by end
December sees to that), but in 2024 we also see a clear surplus in the middle months of the
year- That coincides with the period when buyers notoriously stayed away from the spot market
and preferred to deplete physical stocks. That’s fair enough, but for every cause there is an
effect and in 2024, it’s been a deep supply deficit in the last three reported months, near-
records (if you ignore the rebound in demand we saw in late 2020 as the Covid crisis unwound)
We move on, time for the regular weekly look at copper inventories with data from Cochilco:
 World copper stocks seem to have found their Q1 rhythm, as the aggregate moved up
another 8,028 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 444,140mt and under the global headline
number, its components did what they normally do at this time of year.
 The SHFE continues to rally from its seasonal low as we move toward the Lunar New
Year break, its warehouses adding 9,253mt to close at a total of 98,049mt on Friday.
 The LME saw another modest drop in overall inventory of 2,450mt, mainly thanks to a
net exit from South Korea warehouses, the total ending the week at 257,625mt.
 Comex copper stocks added 1,225mt and continued to add to its potential, this
weekend there are 88,466mt in store in its North American warehouses. China may (or
may not) be in total control of the Panama Canal, but that hasn’t stopped Trafigura
from using it to move copper from Chile to New Orleans.
The dedicated SHFE charts show the early days in SHFE and perhaps the best data point is at
the right of the second chart, a clear indication that the seasonal bottom is in. However, we
underscore that it’s still early days for copper in 2025, let’s see how the data look on the other
side of the Lunar New Year. That happens this Wednesday January 29th, with the holiday
period officially stretching to the Lantern Festival on February 12th.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von ht62
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

Now for notes on some of the basket component stocks:
Atex Resources (ATX.v): A new drill assay result (9) from the Valeriano project last week
sent this stock even higher. Dated Thursday January 23rd and entitled “ATEX Drills New Record
Intercept at Valeriano Hitting 152 Metres of 2.03% CuEq Within 342 Metres of 1.48% CuEq
With Assays on Remainder of Hole Pending”, the title line does a lot of the work so no need to
paste out the NR bullet points. Instead we go with one of the supplied maps to show the
location of the assay, and…
…while certainly an impressive grade and arguably to the North of the sweet spot as defined so
far, the hole is still in a main and mostly understood porphyry area and isn’t going to add that
many new tonnes of copper. The company isn’t daft (it’s motor being Pierre Lassonde, so it will
know how to market and has a willing audience ready to listen) and the company clearly
wanted as most bang per buck from this hole as possible, deciding as it did not to wait for the
results from the deeper metres (something SolGold used
to do to great effect in the Mather days of resource
development at Cascabel).
However, my (well documented) leeriness isn’t going to
change the fact that the market is falling in love with
this stock. ATX is up 33% in 2025 YTD or if you prefer,
it’s up 120% since this time last year and as implied in
this six month chart pitting the stock against the spot
copper (HG00), that has come in two roughly equal
phases of 60% and 60%.
It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve avoided a junior story
and been absolutely wrong on its price performance for an extended period, often years and
not just months, before the price reverts and goes back to the mean. Tahoe Resources, Oroco
Resource Corp, Solaris Resources, New Found Gold, Novo Resources are just five that spring to
mind on this and while in each case my bearish view and “avoid” call were eventually justified,
it meant that in each case I missed out on trading for profit on the way up. In other words, I
was wrong five times and ATX now makes it six.
Element 29 (ECU.v): The other big copper drill assay NR event of the week came on
Wednesday morning (10) when ECU.v delivered the assay results of its much-anticipated deep
hole ELID033, along with the other deep hole drilled in the program so far ELID035. Here are
the first two bullet points from the NR with the headline result numbers:
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 Drill hole ELID033 intersected 0.54% CuEq2 (0.39% Cu, 0.036% Mo, 2.96 g/t Ag) over 1039.6 m
starting from bedrock surface to the end of the hole (“EOH”) at 1109.6 m.
 Drill hole ELID035 intersected 0.54% CuEq2 (0.33% Cu, 0.045% Mo, 2.76 g/t Ag) over 922.4 m
starting at bedrock surface to the EOH at 979.0 m.
No surprises there. For one we knew 033 was going to be a long hole with the Km+ mineralized
because ECU had already tipped us off in its descriptive NR before Christmas. All that was
missing was the grade result and those are very much in-line with what we already know about
Elida. As for hole 035 (drill map below right), that was also good, with grades and lengths that
fully match expectations from a hole drilled in the central part of the target area. Of the two
033 (drill map below left) is the more important as it confirmed Elida has a lot to offer at depth
and its location along the western side of the known mineral envelope suggests lateral
expansion as well. That’s important, because the other thing to note from these drill maps is
how those two holes go a long way under the current theoretical pit shell. Elida’s geographical
location, a valley side which steepens quickly to two sides, means it won’t be so easy to simply
expand the pit shell and capture the deeper mineralization in an open pit. The likely way
forward is to assume the deep stuff gets mined in a block caving operation and that’s also fine
at this early stage, but block caving costs serious money (both capex and opex) which means in
turn that the higher the grade, the better the chances are that a mine plan flies.
Does that apply here? It’s too early to tell, but what we do know is that ECU at Elida does not
have the luxury of favorable and friendly topography around its resource in the same way that,
for example, Aldebaran has at Altar. That project can easily expand its pit shell to include the
successful deep drill assays sunk by the ALDE team, ECU will need to justify block caving and
when you add complications, you add cost. In
correspondence with CEO Osmond, I was told that
ECU believes there’s plenty of opportunity to expand
Elida laterally. That’s important, so we’ll see how
this resource develops.
As for trading, ECU was up 10% on the week so it’s
difficult to complain if you’re a long, but the move
came before the NR was published and on some
volume, which smacks of a leak (darned Vancouver
lawyers’ desks). Once the news was known and
knee-jerk trading washed through ECU had neither
rose nor dropped, suggesting the market was okay
with the results without going gaga for the details.
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Considering hole 033 was pre-announced and hyped for a month and was the single reason
why ECU shares moved from 40c in October to 65c by December end, holding on to nearly all
that speculative move is a good result in my book.
American Eagle (AE.v): Despite the best efforts of CEO Moreau, other assorted company
people and the cottage industry of social media third party marketing that has developed
around this stock, AE drifted lower last week as the market faced up to the reality of its
timetable. This company has been all about momentum and drill news, so we’re now at a bit of
a newsflow impasse with the end of the latest drill
program and a wait before the next round of drilling
begins. The company is bound to work on ways of
buoying up interest and momentum, but without the
constant flow (or anticipation thereof) the hot money
that’s been moving this stock around is likely to move
to other places.
For some an issue, for others the next couple of
months offers the opportunity to “position at cheap
prices and that’s fair enough as well. What remains to
be seen is how cheap those prices get and at what
level AE puts in a floor. My amateurish charting
abilities would say “around about here” because I
cannot see it returning to the 25c prices of yore, then again I am in no rush to repeat the 2024
fliptrade and buy in now. Watching and monitoring, mostly via OCI.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ.to) (TMQ): TMQ has become a hot “Trump Trade stock” and arguably
the #1 mining company to have benefited from his arrival. POTUS47 hasn’t wasted time in
making good on several of his campaign pledges and one of the earliest he’s enacted is the
“UNLEASHING ALASKA’S EXTRAORDINARY RESOURCE POTENTIAL” Executive Order dated
January 20th (their block caps, not mine). The EO (11) included several initiatives to kick-start
the Alaskan economy but what matters here is clause eight:
“(viii) place a temporary moratorium on all activities and privileges granted to any
party pursuant to the record of decision signed on June 27, 2024, entitled “Ambler Road
Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement Record of Decision,” which is referred to
in “Notice of Availability of the Ambler Road Final Supplemental Environmental Impact
Statement, Alaska,” 89 Fed. Reg. 32458 (April 26, 2024), in order to review such record
of decision in light of alleged legal deficiencies and for consideration of relevant public
interests and, as appropriate, conduct a new, comprehensive analysis of such
deficiencies, interests, and environmental impacts; and reinstate the record of decision
signed on July 23, 2020, by the Bureau of Land Management and United States Army
Corps of Engineers entitled “Ambler Road Environmental Impact Statement Joint
Record of Decision,” which is referred to in “Notice of Availability of the Record of
Decision for the Ambler Mining District Industrial Access Road Environmental Impact
Statement,” 85 Fed. Reg. 45440 (July 28, 2020)”
A long lump of script to say the decision to block the Ambler Road is now under review and, if
Trump gets his way, the decision gets reversed and green-lighted to open Ambler and UKMP
region to development. TMQ stock had already doubled going into the Trump inauguration
week and moved up further in anticipation and on
receipt of the EO signing. Profit-takers moved in on
Friday and took the edge off the rally, but that’s still a
strong week of trading by any standards and why we
included TMQ in the Copper Basket list this year, to
keep a close eye on how its political story develops.
However, the opposition and detractors to the project
weren’t quiet about their resolve to oppose the Ambler
Road either, as seen in this press release from the
National Parks Conservation Association (NPCA) (12)
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entitled “Five Ways President Trump’s Executive Orders Could Harm National Parks”. Number
four on its list is “Alaska’s Ambler Industrial Mining Road” and here’s what they say:
Alaskans and the American public made a resounding call to protect Gates of the Arctic National
Park and Preserve from the damaging Ambler Road proposal, successfully blocking the 211-mile
mining road — twice — last year. Staff at the Bureau of Land Management revoked the permits for
Ambler Road last year after gathering new information on how the project could harm Alaska
Native communities. The road, if established, would bulldoze over thousands of waterways, disrupt
America’s largest intact park landscape, block caribou migration routes, and threaten subsistence
and traditional lifestyles of local communities.
Unfortunately, an executive order signed by Trump seeks to revisit this decision. NPCA has
brought together a strong community of partners and allies over the years in this fight who continue
to stand against the proposed Ambler mining road. The strength and voices of this alliance will
remain critical in the months and years to come as we continue to defend this landscape, which
includes 20 million acres of national parklands.
Though Trump and his team will surely want development to start as soon as possible and the
economic plan to get off the ground, his EO should expect legal challenges of all types and just
because Trump signed that paper doesn’t mean the road gets built, either this year or next.
This desk agrees 100% that prospects are now much brighter for TMQ at Ambler, but TMQ has
been trading as if the road is now a slam dunk and it’s not, as legal challenges are a certainty.
The Producer Basket
After 4 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 8.29% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1152.6 48.46 42.04 13.0%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 44.79 89.94 15.0%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 28.20 16.13 4.1%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 24.98 130.02 10.6%
5 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 3.18 15.53 4.4%
6 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.15 2.40 -1.6%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.30 2.91 17.3%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 2.11 4.25 6.8%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 1.71 5.76 3.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 148.95 1.47 9.89 10.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 8.29%
We needed a better week here and we got one. It wasn’t all sweetness and light, as although
all ten of our component stocks registered week-over-week gains there were laggards among
the group (NEM, GOLD, BTG, SAND) that only managed to improve a few tenths. However, the
strongest winners (OGC.to up 8.4%), EGO up 7.0%, WDOFF up 6.0%, AEM up 5.8%, NGD up
5.8%) made up for the others and once the dust had settled, we scored our first weekly win
over the GDX benchmark of 2025, by a little over half a percentage point, and cut the gap a
little. Am I taking this semi-serious competition a little too seriously at the moment? Almost
certainly yes, it pains to be so far behind after such a brief period.
Now for three brief notes on component stocks all featuring the same five-day chart comparing
their performances to that of GDX, there are very distinct and disparate patterns on show.
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): More equity-negative
news from BTG last week when the company
announced (13) it was running an offering for
U$350m of convertible bonds, an offering that
was upsized the next day to U$400m (or U$460m
if we include the overallotment facility, highly
likely to fill). The bonds run an annual interest
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rate of 2.75% until maturity in 2030 and convert at U$3.17, giving big money the opportunity
to get paid to wait. The deal adds a de facto 145m share overhang to the registry at a price
32% above this weekend’s close and is dilution nobody expected when BTG started building
Goose, but the last few months made last week’s news unsurprising.
In other words, last week BTG handed me another reason to regret adding it to the Producer
Basket in 2025, with upside now threatened by that large overhang. In trading, the news sat on
BTG’s share price in the way you see right, rallying into Friday to just make it back into the
green by end week.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF): The only news of any import among our ten charges
last week isn’t something that normally catches the eye (14):
TORONTO, Jan. 23, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (TSX:WDO,
OTCQX:WDOFF) (“Wesdome” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that Mr. Edward C.
Dowling, Jr. has agreed to stand for election to the Company’s board of directors at the next annual
general meeting, currently scheduled for the spring of 2025. It is anticipated that after Mr. Dowling’s
election, he will be appointed as the Chair of the Board.
Admittedly a new director nomination makes for a
mandatory NR, plus the decision to make him board
Chair as soon as he’s voted up is more interesting, but
they don’t tend to be market moving news. This time
is different though, as see right the market reacted
positively to the news Mr. Dowling was coming on
board and that’s likely due to his track record of being
around for M&A deals at other companies when his
was being bought, rather than buying. The market
inference is that Edward Dowling has been brought in
to lead the sale of WDO to the highest bidder, which
makes sense to me (because that’s been my tip and
the reason WDO stayed on the list this year).
OceanaGold Corp (OGC.to): We haven’t featured this new recruit to the list much so far,
that will change next month (15):
VANCOUVER, BC, Jan. 21, 2025 /CNW/ - OceanaGold
Corporation (TSX: OGC) (OTCQX:
OCANF) ("OceanaGold" or the "Company") will release its
operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and
year ending December 31, 2024, after market close on
Wednesday February 19, 2025.
OGTC is one of the companies that doesn’t pre-
announce its production quarter, preferring to reveal
all at the same time as its financials. That’s the same
route as Newmont (and now apparently Barrick).
Meanwhile in trading OGC had a strong week, with a
different pattern to that of WDO above.
The TinyCaps List
After 4 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a loss of 0.86% to level stakes:
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company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 18.74 0.14 -17.6%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 18.35 0.13 -10.3%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 12.87 0.13 0.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 27.92 0.16 10.3%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 33.40 0.44 12.8%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 7.72 0.08 0.0%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 236.796 37.89 0.16 23.1%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 7.52 0.07 -17.6%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 26.32 0.50 -9.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 118.384 16.57 0.14 0.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -0.86%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the
window a little and allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
There were winners, there were losers, they just about cancelled each other out and the
TinyCaps List remains just underwater after four weeks. Three stocks made gains (EDG.v,
KDK.v, MOG.v), four stocks lost ground (BRO.v, CN.v, RDU.v, STS.v) and two remained
unchanged (LMS.v, VAU.v) from this time last week, with most of the moves well under the
10% line. The only bigger moves came from Endurance Gold (EDG.v) and Kodiak Copper
(KDK.v), both up 14.3%.
Barksdale Resources (BRO.v): When we introduced BRO to the list in IKN815 dated
December 30th, the opening words of the biog blurb gave
away the main reason for its inclusion: “Currently being
pumped by Crescat/Quinton Hennigh…” Last week got the
first real results from the BRO and what’s more, it’s a
result we could compare directly against the hype being
generated in the weeks leading up to Christmas.
On December 12th BRO published a “visual assays” NR
with photos and descriptions of the recently retrieved core
from its main Sunnyside project in AZ USA and as seen on
this price chart, not only did the news come when the
stock was at 20c or so, but it had only just got to that
level after ramping on no news. That’s the classic whisper campaign we’ve seen so many times
around these Crescat/Hennigh explorecos and it’s a wonder their tactic still works, but
apparently it does. The NR must have disappointed a few people for its lack of real results,
because BRO gave back around half its recent gains. We noted a couple of editions ago that
buying appetite seemed to had dried up and the 17c stock was suddenly 15c again, last week
we found our why in this NR (16) entitled. “Barksdale Resources Corp. Intersects High-Grade
Sulfide "Exhaust" from a Larger "Engine" and what followed the headline is an example of the
worst type of junior exploreco sleight of hand. Let us recall that in December, BRO had no
problems in using a “visual assay” NR to pimp the drill hole and via its Crescat/Quentin Hennigh
informal channel, it proceeded to whip up expectations both before and around that December
NR, causing the share price to run by +40%. Then before last week’s NR (and as noted last
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week, we got a “mysterious” drop off in traded volume and price which, come the NR, now
looks suspicious as anything. As for the NR, out came the excuses and we’re told the drill hole
“just missed” what they think to be the “main zone”, it was merely unlucky to lose the hole
(even though it’s a 1.3km hole). However, note that they must have known all about not hitting
the type of wide intercepts they’re targeting at the time of that December NR, but instead of
being honest, they were extremely selective in disclosure and only showed the widths of an
area they are wont to describe as “exhaust from the main engine”. Give me strength!
The games continued too, because Friday saw the tape painted into the close and a 14c finish,
when by all rights 13c should be the maximum that even hardcore fanboys pay after last week’s
debacle and exercise in hoodwinking. Over the years I’ve become accustomed to the deception
and lies used by Crescat and Quinton Hennigh to lipstick
their large collection of pigs, but Peter Megaw is a man
who should know better than this. Shame on them all.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): For the first two weeks of
January there was all you could eat at 35c, suddenly
here we are 25% higher and getting bought up. KDK
has always been a volatile creature and as part of the
Discovery Group stable, gets access to media and
marketing fairly easily. Probably related to last week’s
move as much as any new promise of a 43-101 is (see
last weekend’s notes).
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: Mining company trickery
Some more colour on the failed attempt by Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) to get its legally
required “prior consultancy” meeting done for the historically highly contentious Loma Larga
gold project in Azuay province, South Ecuador, as a useful exercise in shedding light on the true
state of community relations in some of the toughest projects to permit, be that Ecuador or
anywhere else on the continent.
This Spanish language report (17) on the event, the back story and the wider issues at play is a
long one and well worth the time of those who care enough, we’ll just go with a translation of
the top paragraph, then a quote further down:
On Saturday January 11th 2025, the government of Ecuador attempted to hold a consultancy
meeting to allow the Loma Larga mining project to go ahead in a location far away from the area
of direct influence and with approximately 180 police officers and army personnel around the site.
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“They tried to hold the meeting in a fraudulent manner”, said Lauro Sigcha, the president of the
Federation of Indigenous Organizations and Rural Residents of Azuay (FOA).
And…
Sigcha said that there was no adequate notice of the meeting and only around 20 people showed
up at the meeting hall in Tarqui, location where the consultancy was staged. He also criticized
that there was no attempt to hold the meeting in the community of San Pedro de Escaleras.
Residents of the (Tarqui) community warned leaders of other communities of the attempt to hold
the meeting. On the same day, around 200 people involved in the Portete village and Tarqui
town water community groups had planned to plant 1,000 trees in the Quimsacocha locality. “It is
only thanks to that event having been organized that we could stop the meeting from going
ahead”, said Sigcha.
The Ecuador Chamber of Mining stated in a communiqué that the prior consultancy process was
suspended “due to acts of violence and verbal intimidation.” Sigcha admits there was a verbal
confrontation, but denies any violence occurred. In social media, videos circulated of local
community members singing songs against mining. However, no violent confrontations were
reported.”
In other words Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to), in cahoots with the national Mining Ministry,
tried to hold a false “Prior Consultancy” meeting. Despite the regulations that require all
indigenous locals affected by any civil works project to be allowed a “free and open” process of
information, the Ministry organized the meeting in a small village far from the project site and
provided no notice of the meeting. They also decided to send 180 police and army personnel to
surround the hall, just in case. It was only by luck that the communities with a vested interest
could react in time, thanks to a separate event they’d organized on the same day and you can
bet dollars to donuts they would not have organized a tree plant if they knew the legally
required meeting for the Loma Larga mine were scheduled (ironically, they were set to plant
trees in the location of the mine project). As a cherry on the cake, the Ecuador Chamber of
Mining showed its own bias by trying to paint the protesters that disrupted the fraudulently
arranged meeting as violent. With 180 officers on deck we would have heard about any arrests
for violent behaviour, but there were no reports.
The triumvirate of deception that is Mining Company, National Government and Chamber of
Mining are not telling you the truth, ladies and gents. That’s a small but pertinent fact to store
away the next time you hear about a bunch of ignorant locals trying to meddle in something
they don’t understand. The fact remains that Loma Larga is a highly polemic and hated project,
located at the source of two rivers that provide drinking water for an entire region (not next to
it, or in the next valley). Locals have opposed the project for over two decades and have won
several legal battles during their opposition; they are educated and informed on the project, its
pros and contras and in the last local referendum, over 80% of them voted against its
development.
In Ecuador, as in any other jurisdiction where community support is vital for a project’s
progress, we need to separate the wheat from the chaff. There are projects that are likely to
prosper under the government of Daniel Noboa if he has handed the type of government
mandate we expect in the upcoming election. Projects such as Mirador expansion, Fruta del
Norte expansion (Bonza/Bonza Sur), SolGold at Cascabel Lumina at Cangrejos and our own bet,
Salazar Resource (SRL.v) with its dual development/exploration hats. However, there are
several that will remain contentious and hated no matter who is in charge in Quito or what laws
they pas, such as Loma Larga and Solaris’s Warintza. What’s more, they tend to be in remote
locations that are nigh on impossible to control or govern without the assistance of the very
locals who oppose the national plans. In the case of Loma Larga, there’s has one road in, one
road out and as shown during the presidency of Rafael Correa (who also tried to force this
project into life), it’s all too easy for the local community to physically block access with very
little risk to themselves short of the army sending a Hummer in and not using the brake pedal.
No project is the same as another and just because one is opposed by a small but vociferous
minority, it’s a mistake to paint them all with the same brush and assume the mining company
is getting a raw deal from a bunch of yokels who are just trying to shake them down for some
extra cash. In this case, DPM is actively part of a deception that is trying to circumvent a legally
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required process by going behind the backs of the very people they are supposed to “inform
freely and fairly”. No one is innocent.
Ecuador election update
Last Sunday evening saw the live TV Presidential debate, the only one in Ecuador before the
first round vote on February 9th* and with all 16 candidates given equal time to expound and
present their manifestos it turned into a snoozefest, with distinct lack of any real debate
between the two main candidates. Then midweek came the first post-debate polling (18), once
again from our benchmark pollster Comunicaliza**, that put sitting President Daniel Noboa on
36.9% (45.7% of valid votes) and main challenger Luisa González on 32.4% (40.1% of valid
votes). The others are still a long way behind, but there has been a little momentum coming for
the candidate from the PSP Party, Andrea González, with a policy platform that mixes
environmentalism and economic growth (pigeonhole it as centre-left, I suppose). She’s not
polling around 5% and may turn out the be the “none of the above” candidate that picks up
votes from those against the frontrunners.
Instead of the runner-and-riders table from the poll, this week we feature the visual that shows
the main issues in Ecuador today (partial translation included) and the crime wave is the clear
#1, with the semi-related issues of unemployment and the state of the national economy in 2nd
and 3rd place. To that end, the Ecuador Central Bank last week announced that in 3q24 the
country had suffered its third consecutive quarter of economic contraction and was officially in
recession. That suggests Noboa has a weak flank to attack, also Luisa González of the now-
notorious Rafael Correa party may be heartened to learn that corruption and political graft has
slipped to the #4 concern for her fellow citizens.
I’m getting a little too Angels/Pinheads this weekend for a mining-focused publication, so we’ll
finished with a more general and interesting data point from the Comunicaliza poll, as it
included a first take on an eventual second round run-off between Daniel Noboa and Luisa
González, if that were to occur. The pollster reports run-off support of 40.4% for Noboa and
35.6% for González. That’s good news for those of us betting on Noboa to secure his mandate.
*Just two weeks to go, get positioned before it’s too late
** If you look around the good old internet, you can find a wider range of voter intention polls for the Ecuador election
and there are some that even have Luisa González in a substantial lead. However, we urge caution on many of the
firms behind the polls now appearing and reiterate that the best-known and the most reputable polling companies, such
as Comunicaliza or Cedatos, all have Noboa leading González and predicting a run-off between the front two.
Mexico: More on Sheinbaum’s pro-mining stance
“Deja que los perros ladren, Sancho,
es señal de que avanzamos”.
Rubén Dario, 1916
A brief addition to last weekend’s note “Mexico: The Sheinbaum government is miner friendly”,
providing more evidence our observations hold weight and that Mexico under President
Sheinbaum will get its mining sector moving again.
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What’s more, it comes from the opposition to mining development in the country. Cambiémosla
Ya (Change Now) is an umbrella group of 18 NGOs and social pressure groups in Central
America (mostly Mexico) which campaigns against the development of the mining and
extractive industries. Here’s a report that includes the key extract from the press release (19):
The collective Cambiémosla Ya (Change Now) have said that the Federal government’s
recently announced Plan Mexico is a cause for concern for communities and
environmental organizations for its intention to promote mining projects in the country.
"Plan Mexico Plan also seeks to allow the private sector to re-start exploration work to
the private sector, which could halt the progress made in protecting the rights of
communities and the environment achieved in 2023 by the reforms in the Mining Law,
which improves the regulation of this extractive industry, one of the most harmful to the
environment, human rights and health,"
Via a press release, they highlighted that the reform are the result of the sustained
efforts of the people affected by mining and said that its rules should be made active
and implemented before making any regressive modifications. "For more than 30 years,
the mining industry has operated in Mexico under extremely lax rules, durnig which a
large part of nation’s territory was granted to foreign and national private individuals,
causing land dispossession, water hoarding, loss of livelihoods and systematic violation
of the rights of peasant and indigenous communities.”
For those not up on their Nicaraguan poets, that Rubén Dario quote translates as “Let the dogs
bark, Sancho, it’s a sign we’re advancing”. Also for what it’s worth and probably due to the way
Dario randomly added the name “Sancho” to the line it’s often falsely attributed to Don Quixote
by Cervantes. Anyway, if the anti-mining groups in Mexico are complaining about Sheinbaum’s
attitude toward mining in her five year roadmap for the country, you know things are getting
better.
Colombia: Petro tips his hand on mining
Just in case you were in any doubt. In last week’s “Colombia: Mining under a new attack from
Petro” we noted the new law passed at national executive level which provides an effective veto
to mining projects in the South of the Antioquia department (state/province). Since then we’ve
had a spat between the pro-mining governor of Antioquia, Andrés Rendon, and President
Gustavo Petro which should tell you everything you need to know about the President’s attitude
toward mining. Governor Rendon came out in opposition to the government executive decree,
telling the press that his department didn’t need bureaucrats from Bogotá interfering in a region
they didn’t understand. Petro took up the challenge and fired back immediately (20), which is
fairly normal in the tit-for-tat rhetoric world of Colombian politics but it’s what he said that most
interests us, the mining FDI people on the outside looking in. Petro said (translated):
“You, Señor Governor of Antioquia, don’t want a Bogotá bureaucrat but neither do you
want the peasant population of your own territory, the people who want agriculture and
not mining.”
And…
“You obey the words of foreign multinational mining companies. You don’t want to obey
your mandate, nor the national government elected by millions of Antioquia people, nor
your own people. You are only interested in money.”
And…
“You are not capable of caring for the children of your region’s people against
foreigners, you don’t know how to look after life and looking down on it, considering it
less than the dollar. You don’t know how to look after the water supply that you believe
doesn’t matter when compared to gold.”
Whether you agree or not with President Petro’s view of the issue (and I’d guess most reading
these words would not), what strikes this desk most is the absolute clarity of his anti-mining
position, rather than the latest spat with a regional governor from the opposition ranks. This is
what’s in play as Colombia moves into its final year of Petro presidency, as 2026 brings the next
election in which the right wing is widely expected to prevail. That would (in theory at least)
make Colombia a buy for mining exposure, but there’s a lot of time left between now and that
scenario. Our basic recommendation stays in place, avoid Colombia (he says, as he closes his
LBC.v spec trade at a loss and curses his own words).
26

Market Watching
Deferred. Next week, for sure.
Conclusion
Time to wrap up IKN819 with a couple of bullet points:
 On reading the ABRA note this evening before sending, the lack of information on its
project operations is a little too glaring for my liking. On reflection, there should be
more about its project plans to mine Diablillos even though that’s not the reason I’m a
buyer of the stock. The combo today is 1) more silver exposure and 2) the rare
opportunity to buy a deeply discounted project that’s going to make it from PFS to
become a real mine, but also at a deep discount to what the project is surely worth
today. Though I’d realized RIGI would be a boost, it wasn’t until I sat down with the
PFS open last week that I understood just how beneficial it was to Diablillos. This is a
great price and once the upcoming placement is out the way, a favourable run in silver
is all it will need to go a lot higher.
 I’m a happier holder of Minera Alamos (MAI.v) this weekend, thanks to the positive
messaging from last week’s webinar and also thanks to the discomfort of the left wing
anti-mining groups toward the new Sheinbaum administration.
 Ecuador is a buy. Argentina is a buy. The jury is out on Mexico, but things are starting
to look better. Colombia is a sell.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/fomc-preview-no-change-to-policy.html
(2) https://liberocopper.com/_resources/news/nr-20250122.pdf
(3) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/notice-of-release-of-barrick-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-
2024-results/default.aspx
(4) https://lu17.com/contenido/74013/el-impacto-economico-por-el-avance-del-proyecto-minero-calcatreu
(5) https://aftermathsilver.com/news-releases/aftermath-silver-appoints-galiant-partners-as-critical-minerals-advisors/
(6) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/01/24/3014824/0/en/Marimaca-Announces-Lodgement-of-
Prospectus-for-Proposed-Listing-on-the-Australian-Securities-Exchange.html
(7) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4QSKRdlEzw
(8) https://icsg.org/press-releases/
(9) https://www.atexresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20250123.pdf
(10) https://www.e29copper.com/_resources/news/nr-20250122.pd
(11) https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-alaskas-extraordinary-resource-potential/
(12) https://www.npca.org/articles/6614-five-ways-president-trump-s-executive-orders-could-harm-national-parks
27

(13) https://www.b2gold.com/news-media/news-releases/news-details/2025/B2Gold-Announces-Pricing-of-Upsized-
Offering-of-Convertible-Senior-Notes/default.aspx
(14) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2025/Edward-C.-Dowling-Jr.-to-Stand-for-
Election-to-the-Board-of-Directors-of-Wesdome-Gold-Mines-Appointment-as-Chair-Expected-Upon-
Election/default.aspx
(15) https://investors.oceanagold.com/2025-01-21-OceanaGold-Provides-Notice-of-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-
Results-and-Conference-Call
(16) https://www.barksdaleresources.com/news/news-release/434-
arksdaleesourcesorpntersectsighradeulfidexh20250122051002.html
(17) https://es.mongabay.com/2025/01/ecuador-proyecto-minero-loma-larga-prosigue-consulta-popular-lo-rechazo/
(18) https://www.metroecuador.com.ec/noticias/2025/01/24/daniel-noboa-lidera-la-intencion-de-voto-despues-del-
debate-segun-la-encuesta-de-comunicaliza/
(19) https://dossierpolitico.com/2025/01/23/plan-mexico-genera-incertidumbre-por-fomento-de-mineria-en-el-pais-ongs/
(20) https://www.rcnradio.com/colombia/antioquia/los-campesinos-de-su-tierra-quieren-es-agricultura-y-no-mineria-
petro-a-gobernador-de-antioquia
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 25-Aug-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
28

Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
29

INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
30

Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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