IKN #818Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 818, January 19th 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, MLK and POTUS 47, Silver: Bullish not moonish.
Fundamental Analysis: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q24 production, Eldorado Gold 4q24
production.
Stocks to Follow: Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to). Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD) (ABX.to), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), Salazar Resources (SRL.v), Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v),
Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, American Eagle (AE.v), Trilogy Metals (TMQ.to) (TMQ),
Hercules Metals (BIG.v), Pampa Metals (PM.cse), Element 29 (ECU.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF),
Newmont Corp (NEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Electrum Discovery Corp (ELY.v), Kodiak Copper (KDK.v).
Regional Politics: Mexico: The Sheinbaum government is miner friendly, Colombia: Mining
under a new attack from Petro, Ecuador’s election and the latest polling, Ecuador: Be selective.
Market Watching: Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) redux, Argenta Silver (AGAG.v) does what
we expected it to do, New Found Gold (NFG.v) (NFGC) gets vicious.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Our regular top-of-shop note on any portfolio moves, as I’m taking profits in Arizona Sonoran
(ASCU.to). It was a near-term trade set up at the end of 2024 with clear objectives and has
complied, so a simple decision made. Also, please note that I may sell the position in Barrick
(GOLD) (ABX.to) at any given moment, it too is a specific near-term trade and once the
company’s Q4 numbers are in, it’s decision time.
In Today’s Edition
 While we do cover plenty of company fundamentals, results, financials etc in this edition,
in my opinion the most important note is the piece on Mexico in Regional Politics. There’s
strategy-level money to be made now the Sheinbaum government has officially set its
stall out and the waiting for something to happen in its mining sector will soon be over.
Please see “Mexico: The Sheinbaum government is miner friendly”, below.
 The main fundies section covers the production numbers from two of our covered and
owned stocks. Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) was reliable as ever and returned a strong
Q4. However, while Eldorado Gold’s (EGO) (ELD.to) was good (and arguably a beat), its
share price got whacked on the news of further delays and potential cost hikes at its
Skouries development project. We sift through the wreckage and try to come to a
proactive decision on what to do with this losing trade.
 It’s one of those editions where we run the ruler over the silver metals market, as it’s
been a while and there’s data and sentiment to update. That’s the main intro note today
and after thinking about the subject and watching the price action all week, I’ve come to
the conclusion that I’m probably light on exposure to the Jekyll & Hyde metal. To beat
them all
1

 The Producer Basket also has good and bad results from producer Q4s, with Wesdome
(WDOFF) (WDO.to) delivering as expected and B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) offering up more
negative news. Also please note how badly my picks for the 2025 basket have started
the year, it’s rather embarrassing all told.
 Other things as well. There are always other things.
MLK and POTUS 47
Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the US federal holiday celebrated on the third Monday of the year,
happens tomorrow January 20th and as a result, US markets are closed for the day. I also hear
there’s an inauguration ceremony going on in the cold of Washington DC tomorrow, so enjoy
that. Canadian markets are open as normal but we should expect the usual when TSX is open
and NYSE isn’t; greatly reduced volumes across the board (and potentially some abnormal price
moves in less liquid stocks).
Silver: Bullish not moonish
An intro rant on the difference between being constructive and long on silver and swallowing all
the hyperbull stupidity that gets published on the subject, plus a call on what we expect from
this trickiest of metals. As it’s been a while since we tackled the thorny issue of the price of
silver in any great detail, today seems to be a good time to update as for some reason or
another, the silver blather and nonsense brigade is back in town. So a clear statement on the
subject (underlined), then we dive in: I am bullish on the price of silver and, on reflection this
week, believe I may be too lightly exposed. However, it’s also a magnet for shills and snake-oil
salespeople so it’s important to sort the wheat from the chaff and understand what potential
upside there is, and isn’t, in this most polemic of traded metals.
We begin with a look back at previous coverage on silver metal price action here at the IKN
Weekly and, while silver gets regular notes and thoughts, the last real consideration of its
fundamentals came in a pair of issues last year. The first was IKN778 dated April 14th and the
intro note “How high can silver go?”, then in IKN788 dated June 23rd and the note entitled
“Becoming bullish on silver”, also in the intro section.
The note in IKN778 came after a breakout run in
Silver supply by mine type
silver to its spot price at that time of around
U$28/oz. We considered the backdrop of supply
(70% of silver is mined as a by-product etc, chart
right), demand issues and its approximate 50/50
split between precious metal/investment uses and
industrial uses (making special mention of the
increase in the photovoltaic panel sector), we also
chewed over the difference between buying silver
and gold for investment purposes (which we put
under a generalized header “Speculators are not
consumers”. We ended that day with this:
A target for silver of between U$30.50 and U$32/oz is perfectly reasonable, as long as gold
holds up against the dollar.
2) The above could be blown out the water easily by overbuying on the way up.
Either way, with gold suddenly extremely popular and silver looking to return to a more
reasonable 75/1 ratio with the monetary metal, today’s U$28/oz and bits looks like a
reasonable entry point for silver. It has momentum, the technical/chart breakout has been
trumpeted all over the market and speculators and paying new attention. So even without a
feeding frenzy, silver is a decent risk/reward speculation at today’s levels.
In IKN788, ten editions later, we took a closer look at the latest supply and demand
fundamentals (using The Silver Institute data as our benchmark), in light of the new data
available on the world silver market. We ran a few charts and considered the state of play in
several variables, including and the much-vaunted “structural supply deficit in silver” (certainly
well-vaunted by the legions of silverbugs on social media) that was indeed forecast at that point
2
%76
%33
%86
%23
%96
%23
%86
%23
%86
%23
%86
%23
%07
%13
%17
%92
%27
%82
%47
%72
%37
%82
%27
%82
%27
%82
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202
by-product
Primary
source: Silver Institute

to come in at around 215m oz for 2024 and give us the fifth annual supply deficit in as many
years. However, we also took a close look at the
identifiable silver bullion inventories data, which
showed that the market could continue to suck up
structural supply deficits for a while to come without
“running out of physical silver” (inverted commas
required, please see below). This table (right) from
IKN788 laid out the numbers as known and the simple
math (I know it’s not this simple, but we have to start
somewhere) shows silver inventories were good for at
least five more years of demand up-tick, even when
factoring in the rise in photovoltaic panel demand.
We ended that day with this chunk of script:
Bottom line: It’s possible to be bullish silver without being a True Believer, a hardcore
HODLer or the proponent of (let’s be nice) “fringe views on the way the financial world works”.
Up to 2024 I sucked my teeth and didn’t get on board the bandwagon, but that changed at
the end of 1q24 because in the words of JM Keynes, “When the facts change I change my
mind, what do you do, sir?” Despite my reticence to jump on the photovoltaic bandwagon until
now, the evidence amassing for a true, demand-driven change in the market for silver has
become too obvious to ignore. What’s missing from the mix is a period during which industrial
demand grows at the same time as investment demand and what that needs, quite simply, is
higher prices. Silver is an industrial metal and its growth in usage augurs well for the future,
but it’s also a means of investment (or speculation if you prefer) and if those aspects of
demand line up together, we’re going to see the price run higher. However, we also need to
be sensible about projections. For one thing, a supply deficit in 2024 does not automatically
mean higher prices and we have plenty of evidence for that; 2022 and 2023 were also deficit
years and silver basically flat-lined through those years. Also 1) prices are higher already 2)
there’s still plenty of identifiable stocks to make up the difference and 3) there’s also the
natural feedback loop of the scrap market, as the higher silver goes the more sales of physical
into the market we’ll see.
All that said, the overall balance is positive for the future of silver, that’s why I’m bullish about
the metal going forward and expect U$30/oz and beyond to become the norm as 2024 closes
out, with better things to come in 2025. This time really is different, be long silver.
Let’s see how those calls got on, starting with a silver price chart:
From IKN778, our target of between U$30.50/oz and U$32/oz for silver has turned out to be a
good call. As has the “silver U$28/oz is a reasonable entry point” call. We can even point to the
September high of U$34.85/oz as evidence of the predicted spike higher, though I’m not sure
that fully counts as blowing the median target out the water. As for IKN788, I’m comfortable
about the “U$30/oz a new baseline” prediction and as silver did rise around 18% from the
IKN788 call to it’s spike top, the “be long silver” just about works. But this weekend’s closing
price means it’s just 4% above the price we registered on June 23rd and that’s nobody’s idea of
3

a win. However and in general terms, our “constructively bullish” position that eschews the To
The Moon calls on the metal but expected better things has indeed worked out. I’ll give myself
a score of 8/10 for this one (and it’s a pity all my calls
aren’t this close).
Which brings us to today and the reason this subject is
being tackled again. With my mind on other things in
the last couple of weeks, I hadn’t noticed the latest
round of silver hype doing the rounds until late last
week but on doing so, I couldn’t help but open my fat
mouth on TwitterX (1) (right). That rant, while the sub-
tweeted post an example of the blather I’d just noticed
doing the rounds, but much to my surprise a subscriber
to The IKN Weekly (ty sir) pinged me and showed me
how behind the curve I’ve been. It turns out the “Silver
Stockout” rumours had been fueled by professional
analysts (or what passes for one these days) and on
January 8th, TD Sec's Senior Commodity Strategist,
Daniel Ghali, had fueled this nonsense (2)…
“Trump’s tariff threats are destabilizing silver markets,
gold will rally again in H2 2025 – TD Securities’ Ghali”
…which really caught me off-guard, so I had another
TwitterX rant about it (3) (go and have a look if you
want, not re-printing everything here) and got the
disbelief that a so-called professional would propagate
such nonsense off my chest. However, readers of The
IKN Weekly deserve more than ranty big mouth so it
was time to update and offer solid evidence that stock-
outs are simply not going to happen.
First stop was The Silver Institute (TSI) (4) and, since IKN788, TSI has tightened its forecasts
for silver supply and demand for 2024 (as well as adjusting its data for previous years, which is
perfectly normal). Back then, it put total supply at 1,003.8m oz and total demand at 1,219.1m
oz for a net expected deficit of 215.3m oz for the year.
Silver: Annual total supply and demand
1400 (NB: cut down Y-axis)
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
4
8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 e4202
M oz Ag
Total Supply
Total Demand
source: The Silver Institute
Both those have now moved in the bearish direction
for prices. In its latest update on fundamentals Silver: Supply surplus or deficit
(chart above), TSI estimates 2024 total market (positive = surplus, negative = deficit)
supply at 1,026m oz (up by 22.2m oz Ag) and total 54.8 40.5
1.3 -4.2
market demand at 1,209m oz (down by 9.9m oz) for
a net expected deficit of 183m oz Ag, as seen in this -18.4 chart (right). It's still a market in supply deficit of -69.4 -93.5
course, but now 32.3m oz less sharp than expected
in April 2024.
8.062- 681- 381-
100
50
0
-50 -100 -150
-200
-250
-300
5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 e4202
M oz Ag
source: Silver Institute, GFMS, IKN ests, IKN calcs

As long as silver bullion inventories hadn’t melted away in the meantime, that indicates the
market can handle the reduced structural deficit more easily than we presumed, even in June
this year. At this point, instead of leaning in TSI I
wondered whether one of the more sensible metals
voices out there, Jeff Christian of CPM Group, had said
anything on this subject since “Silver Stock Out!!!” had
appeared on the 2025 scene, as he also has a strong
reputation for calling out the hype and BS you see on
social media. Much to my delight, earlier last week he
had indeed published “Silver Scam 2025 (And How To
Avoid It)” on his YouTube channel (5) and it’s a highly
recommended 20 minutes or so, as Mr. Christian does
a better job of walking us through the mechanisms of
London and Comex precious metals stocks and why,
even with the “Trump Tariff” influx of physical moving
to The USA last week, there’s zero chance of physical
deliveries being under threat. I took a couple of
screenshots from his video, this one (right) showing the difference between Registered and
Eligible silver stocks on the Comex; One glance is enough to understand why the silver snake
oil salespeople on your social media channel of choice.
Then this one (right), showing that while we readily
agree there has been a draw down of silver stocks in
the London vault system since 2021, there’s a long
way to go before its stocks reach the point where
physical delivery becomes problematic. Please check
out the Jeff Christian video for more, it does a good
job but the bottom line is the same, there’s no silver
stock-out on the horizon.
However, there’s also no doubt that silver price action
has been constructive in recent times and that makes
sense. In fact, the one fundamental error that stuck
out on reviewing the arguments in IKN778 and IKN788 this week was my assumption that the
Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) would rally to around 75X. That hasn’t been the case as, apart from a
brief moment midyear, the GDR has remained resolutely over 80X and sometimes as high as
90X. Investors (and notably the central banks) have flocked to gold for safe haven purposes
and the GSR’s role as an indicator of economic sentiment has been pointing to the negative.
My assumption is that at some point, the negativity toward silver is going to change. The Silver
Institute reported lower than expected investment demand for silver in Q3 last year but the
rally in gold in Q4 will, at some point, rub off on its little sibling metal and if the world economic
outlook improves (e.g. the Trump Factor), silver should out-perform gold. With that in mind,
I’ve re-done the GSR table that first appeared in IKN778, changing up the assumed gold price
range (it used to start at U$1,900/oz) and assuming a GSR of between 75X and 90X. This offers
target prices for silver that obey the basic and rather boring tenets of supply and demand,
5

rather than the exciting “JP Morgan Going Bankrupt!” malarkey used by the social media
soothsayers:
Targets for silver at different gold prices and GSR multiples (U$)
Gold
oz Silver oz 75/1 Silver Oz 80/1 Silver Oz 85/1 Silver oz 90/1
2200 29.33 27.50 25.88 24.44
2300 30.67 28.75 27.06 25.56
2500 33.33 31.25 29.41 27.78
2600 34.67 32.50 30.59 28.89
2700 36.00 $33.75 $31.76 30.00
2800 37.33 $35.00 $32.94 31.11
3000 40.00 37.50 35.29 33.33
3500 46.67 43.75 41.18 38.89
source: IKN calcs & ests
The results give a target range moderately above the previous target of between U$31.76/oz
and U$35.00/oz at the current gold price deck. That would go higher if silver got popular and
moved back to the 75X GSR, but recent trading tells us that 80X is a more sensible place at
which to put targets. With silver closing at U$30.35/oz last week, this puts an upside range
target of 15.3% on the metal and while that doesn’t sound like so much, the leverage silver
gives to the silver juniors is well documented. Not all the time of course (please check my
faltering trade in IMPACT Silver IPT.v for more information), but the difference we made in
SilverCrest (SILV) and Bear Creek (BCM.v) last year shows what can be achieved in a fairly
short period of time.
To wrap up, after considering silver in light of the new information and market backdrop, even
after discarding the hype and wildly bullish predictions based on some fictitious and fantasyland
silver stock out, the silver sub-sector does look attractive again. As my only current holdings are
the aforementioned IPT.v and Aftermath Silver (AAG.v, which has started quite well), I may be
a little too light on silver exposure at the moment and there’s room for another stock in the
portfolio, at least for some type of modest fliptrade with a near-term perspective. As ASCU.to is
set to leave the list in the coming week, there’s a space to fill and some extra cash in the
treasury, too. Watch this space.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Foreword: I’m going to try to keep today’s main fundies section concise (emphasis on try) as
for one thing both stocks are offering their production numbers for Q4 and not their year-end
financials. That’s the moment when I plan to dig deeper on these companies and for their own
separate reasons. Another reason is the contents of each overview: In the case of Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to), it’s business as usual with the type of regular, strong result we’ve come to
expect. Whereas at Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) its decent Q4 was overshadowed by negative
news from its Skouries build-out that put the kibosh on its share price action and is likely to
hang over the stock until we get its annuals. Without further ado, let’s get into them.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q24 production
On Tuesday January 14th our mainstay copper trade, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), announced
its 4q24 production, preliminary sales and 2025 outlook numbers (6) and before we go any
further, this chart:
ARG.to: Copper sales
6
11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 68.41 81.61 97.61 94.61 966.31 779.01 80.61 169.51 33.41 84.61 32.81
20
18
16
14
12
10 8
6
4
2
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM

With production of 18.31m lbs copper and sales of 18.23m lbs copper, as well as 0.33m lbs
moly, it’s the single best quarter put up by ARG in recent memory. What’s more, if you back out
the hike seen in 3q19 and 4q19 for the copper produced from El Teniente (DET) on a
temporary contract that lasted just three quarters (and only provided very thin margins on
eventual sales), this 4q24 is the best quarter we’ve seen from ARG since our records began
back in 2011 (and yes, I have been watching this stock for a long time, thanks for noticing).
ARG.to: Copper sales
7
88.01 23.9 8.01 24.21 80.41 267.01 420.31 217.31 284.21 734.9 658.01 595.21 771.01 223.9 123.01 612.11 928.8 593.9 882.8 737.01 647.21 905.41 995.51 714.31 571.51 791.61 152.51 482.61 25.41 912.41 595.71 395.71 29.21 568.31 55.61 74.51 28.11 7.31 29.41 9.51 11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 68.41 81.61 97.61 94.61 966.31 779.01 80.61 169.51 33.41 84.61 32.81
20
18
16
14
12
10 8 6
4
2
0
11q1 11q3 21q1 21q3 31q1 31q3 41q1 41q3 51q1 51q3 61q1 61q3 71q1 71q3 81q1 81q3 91q1 91q3 02q1 02q3 12q1 12q3 22q1 22q3 32q1 32q3 42q1 42q3
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
This was a strong quarter from ARG, no ifs or buts. ARG reported copper average received price
for the quarter at U$4.06 (below left(, so do the math and we’re looking at U$74m in gross
copper value (below right)
But as regular ARG-watchers will know, there are adjustments to make before we get a top line
revenue number (and most are subtractions. First we back out the fair value adjustment for
copper (the synthetic adjustment dependent on the difference between the received price for
copper in this and the preceding quarter) which we estimate at negative U$2.5m for 4q24.
Then DET royalties will be elevated this quarter on those record sales (est U$21.33m), then we
back out smelting, refining and transport costs (est U$7.1m). Once all that is done we add the
moly credit metal revenue and that's always a bit of a guess on a quarterly basis, never know
exactly when shipments happen but this time we estimate the same as 3q24 and U$5.3m. And
with all that done…
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
797.37
904.97
567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 897.66 2.07 846.25 908.25 882.94
630.23
855.14
2.14
3.03 5.95 591.16
4.24
582.16 787.26
129.44
379.26 448.96
206.15
397.86 341.66
834.54
47 5.17
14.84
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
ARG: Average Cu price for MVC
U$m
Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
…our estimate for top line revenues is U$48.4m. Then costs are backed out…
80.4 44.4 32.4 23.4 46.4 01.4 05.3 08.3 20.4 08.3 67.3 28.3 79.3 93.4 22.4 60.4
5
4
3
2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$/lb Cu ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
source: Company data/IKN ests
1.85 6.66 0.27 6.27 8.37 7.36 8.65 1.16 8.66 8.25
6.14
5.95 3.16 0.36 8.86 0.47
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
8
624.12
616.1 655.3-
738.8
874.31
503.3- 420.2-
200.6 508.7
394.61
573.7 4.9
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
-5
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$m
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
source: company filings
…for a gross profit of U$9.4m and that’’ll do for today, we’ve save the operating and net
numbers for the concrete results, due February
26th. However, with ARG we’ve also noted over
the years that its DD&A deduction is largely
immaterial and an accounting matter only, as
this is one of the very few companies about
which we can say its raw material feed is, for all intents and purposes, unquenchable. Therefore
we track its real world cash generation potential
by backing out G&A and when we do so ARG
looks set to make around U$14.2m in pre tax
margin. That’s a great quarter and it wasn’t a
surprise to learn that cash treasury is up to
U$35.9m, even after paying back its regular six-
monthly U$4m slice of bank debt.
ARG.to: Cash and ST
590.17
20.35
318.14
128.73
329.34
576.13
131.31 842.61 108.31
637.82 721.52 9.53
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
ARG: The real world margin
$m
source: company filings
Finally (and this one on ARG’s Q4 has indeed been nice and concise), ARG gave us preliminary
guidance for 2025 and the 62.9m lb copper indicates a small incremental growth on last year’s
guidance. However, ARG tends to under-promise on guidance and we should consider 62.9m
lbs as a starting point (FY24 ended at 65m lbs Cu).
Summing up, This is the type of quarter we signed on for
at ARG and we can fully expect the company to declare
its C$0.03 dividend next month, as well as going to
market to buy back more shares. If the good times keep
rolling (and the recent copper pop says they are), we
should get another bonus dividend payment sooner
rather than later as the third leg of the profit returns
policy. In trading, ARG moved up on the news as well it
should, out-performing the main copper ETF (COPX)
quite handily on the week.
61.0- 30.1
33.21 97.71
24.02
93.22 79.61 15.22
49.52
95.3
20.0-
57.51
4.81
8.1 80.1- 41.9
52.21 25.12 88.21 02.41
28
24
20
16
12 8
4
0
-4
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests

Eldorado Gold 4q24 production
The above on ARG was brief, sweet and filled with plenty of positive items. Now for the
problem child of the portfolio’s week, Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) and if we begin with a ten-
day comparative chart of EGO versus the GDX benchmark, it’s not difficult to spot when the NR
came out:
Indeed, it was post-close Tuesday when EGO announced (7) its 4q24 and 2024 year-end
production numbers, as well as providing initial guidance for 2025, the reaction coming as from
Wednesday morning and bleeding through the rest of the week. An unpleasant week watching
money bleed from my portfolio ensued, as I hasten to remind readers that I considered the
prices we’ve seen in recent weeks, floating between U$15 and U$16, as dirt cheap as well and I
fully expected this to rally by 10% or so on this NR, not drop by 9.1%. I felt sick.
Anyway, less moaning and more numbers and we’ll start with the general good news, i.e. the
4q24 production as reported by EGO last week and on the whole, they were good:
EGO: gold production breakdown, per qtr
180000
160000
15992
140000
17882 19451
1 1 0 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 9 7 9 5 2 6 8 1 2 1 2 3 6 8 4 6 4 6 2 1 1 8 1 8 4 4 2 8 22374 1 1 8 8 5 7 0 8 1 8 2 1 2 3 3 5 9 4 7 1 1 2 9 1 7 2 9 1 4 1 63742
56619
60000 37884 38745 42821 42299 47391 43106
40000
56483
20000 37160 34180 37219 46291 37523 38990 41084
0
9
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Oz Au
Kisladag Lamaque
Efemcukuru Olympias
source: company filings
Gold production came in at a consolidated 155,669 oz and when we factor in the AuEq estimate
from the sales out of Olympias, we estimate an overall numbers of 162,688 oz:
EGO: Total AuEq prod, per qtr
022831 247111 660611 954521 934031 037001 513711 090921 829931 922711 972711 308821
114351
126121 541031 591331
866261
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000 60000
40000
20000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Oz Au
To
source: company filings
EGO guidance is on gold ounces only and the annual total of 520,293 was at the midpoint of
the “tightened” annual guidance of 505,000 to 530,000 oz (as per the 3q24 report) and also hit
the lower end of its original guidance range 505,000 to 555,000 oz, but to the low end. The
above chart breaks down the production by mine and while Efemcukuru was in-line, Olympias a

miss (though we’d been guided on that due to the work stoppage for a few days of Q4) and
Kisladag was good (56,483 oz is its best quarter for four years), star of the show was Lamaque:
EGO: Lamaque Au prod, per qtr
10
86144 53882 34653 96373 45315 77333 71964 45424 94315 48873 54783 12824 91665 99224 19374 60134
24736
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000 20000
10000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Oz Au
To
source: company filings
Its 63,742 oz produced is a new mine record for any given quarter and brings its annual total to
196,538 oz, also a beat on the year.
So a good quarter of production that made up for a couple of slight misses in Q2 and Q3, but
the good news doesn’t stop there because when we combine the estimated sales with the
improved average gold price we all know about for Q4, top line revenues look set to come in
with an eye-catching number when EGO reports its financials, post-close February 20th.
EGO: Earnings overview
53.922
63.23
68.922
70.93
62.542
68.24
40.403 17.56 79.752 01.06 41.792 54.09 67.133 001
024
561
500
450
400
350
300
250
200 150
100
50
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$m
revenues
gross margin
mine op earnings
op. earnings
source: company filings
While costs have been flagged as rising, that estimated U$420m in revenues should see plenty
of extra dollars flow through the books and at present. We estimate operating earnings at
U$165m, or 80c/share. That implies a
forward price/operating earnings multiple of 1.00 EGO: mine op earnings and op earnings per share 0.94
just 4.54X this weekend, a tiny number for
0.80
any gold miner, let alone a strongly 0.62
0.54 0.80
profitable one. 0.60 0.47
0.39
0.31 0.31 0.33
Summing up so far, the EGO Q$ was just 0.40 0.21 0.26 0.15 0.24 0.44 0.49
how we expected it, i.e. a strong 0.20 0.32 0.29
consolidated number that went a long way 0.00 0.18 0.11 0.18 0.19 0.21
in catching up to the slightly soft results in 0.02
Q2 and Q3. With gold prices where they -0.20 -0.08
are, we can expect a strong set of financials
when EGO reports next month and overall,
what we saw was the reason why I’d gone and stayed long into this production report.
Which begs the question, what went wrong? Why, if Q4 came in well, did the stock sink by
9.1% on the week and leave me with a hole in my bank balance (and pit of stomach, for that
matter)? We quote the reason from the NR:
Skouries – Slower than Planned Progress on Construction and Capital Spend at Year-End 2024
At Skouries, as of December 31st, 2024, the current phase 2 of the project was 60% complete,
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
mine op earn/share
op earn/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests

and the entire project was 82% complete, when including the first phase of construction. Detailed
engineering was substantially complete. Capital spending was approximately $93 million in the
fourth quarter of 2024, and approximately $320 million in 2024, compared to our earlier guidance
of between $350 and $380 million in 2024. In total, approximately $506 million of capital has
been invested since the restart of construction in 2023. Lower than expected spend in the fourth
quarter was primarily a result of delayed ramp up to the planned 1,300 site personnel, with
approximately 1,050 personnel on site at year-end. The challenge in ramping up personnel was
the result of a tight construction labor market in Greece, which has limited the availability of
construction personnel.
We are evaluating the impact of these and other factors on the project schedule and capital cost.
We expect to provide a full project update, including an updated capital cost estimate and project
schedule, in February 2025.
That’s a bucket of ice-cold water on the quarter and the
EGO: Skouries Project completion
whole reason for last week’s selling. Not only is Skouries
now behind schedule in a more serious way than was
reported in 3q24, when the company noted some delays
but said they weren’t critical path items, but it doesn’t take
much reading between the lines to see that we’re being
prepared for another capex hike. This little chart shows
the development of Skouries as per the reported quarters
and it doesn’t take a PhD in math to work out that without
acceleration, there’s scant chance of the mine coming
online as previously scheduled at the end of this year. Add
in the talk of the tight labour market and the “evaluation
of project schedule and capital cost” and the market was probably right to take the negative
view and mark EGO down immediately, rather than waiting for the bad news next month.
There’s also the change of guidance for future years to consider. Until last week our forecast
production for 2025 was 570,000 oz gold and included 55,000 oz from the new Skouries
operation in Q4. With this news and details to come, it’s only prudent to cut any forecast of
production from Skouries this year and adjust its 2026 production estimate as well, what with
the ramp-up now being shifted back at least one quarter. Here’s our new estimates, with 2025
now slated at 515k oz gold and another 30k oz shaved off the 2026 estimate, bringing it down
to 632,750 oz. Still good of course (and there’s also EGO’s organix growth projects waiting in
the wings), but the edge is certainly taken off.
EGO: Annual gold production and median four year guidance
Oz Au
Skouries
750000
700000 Olympias
650000 Efemcukuru
600000 Lamaque 200000
550000 Kisladag 120000
3 4 4 5 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 5 2 6 7 3 0 9 7 5 8 6 7 3 6 3 8 3 5 6 8 8 6 1 0 5 8 7 8 6 8 9 0 5 1 3 4 2 3 8 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
300000
250000 153201 174097 176069 196538 175000 190000 190000
200000
150000
1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 174364 135800 154850 174080 180000 157750 170000
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026e 2027e
source: company filings
The silver lining is capex, as even if we assume a second adjustment to estimates at Skouries
the good gold prices mean EGO is almost certain to have treasury on hand to fund any
shortfall, without recourse to the debt markets or a refi with current lenders. We’re bound to
get more on that in the 4q24 and 2024 YE results next month at which time we can make a
more informed decision.
Which leads me to my own position, as I’m holding a bag instead of a winner in a stock that,
until last week, look cheap by any metric. I don’t mind admitting this one hurt, the position has
grown and with gold up, it’s not a good feeling to be underwater on the stock picked out to ride
11
%07 %37 %67 %97 %28
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50% 40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24
source: company filings

the rising gold price. I’m going to defer the decision to continue with this trade until we have
those 4q24 numbers and I don’t begrudge EGO for the way they’ve disclosed the bad news at
Skouries, they tend to be matter-of-fact about such matters and don’t try market strategies to
cushion bad news, what you see is what you get. However, that does mean the market may
have over-reacted and assumed too much bad news about Skouries, particularly with the capex
total. If there’s a quarter of extra time required to finish the build-out then so be it, but with
gold doing what it’s done and the company reporting such a good quarter, it’s unlikely they
can’t cover any extra cash organically.
Bottom line: A painful NR out of EGO that didn’t do my ego (pun intended) any good at all. Or
perhaps it did, as deflated is probably better than inflated. Holding for the next month and then
a hold/sell decision forthcoming.
Stocks to Follow
Not the worst week for our Stocks to Follow list, but there’s nothing here that can make up for
the pain that Eldorado Gold (EGO) caused. There were eight winners on the week (RIO.v,
ARG.to, MARI.to, SRL.v, GOLD, AAG.v, ASCU.to, IPT.v), four unchanged stocks (RPX.v, PGZ.v,
OCI.v, MIRL.cse) and eight losers (MAI.v, EGO.v, LBC.v, ERO.to, SURG.v, PGDC.v, PAU.cse,
MENE.v), so a balanced headcount at the basic level but the bigger movers are skewed to the
downside this week, so overall a negative result. The big percentage losers include Patagonia
Gold (PGDC.v down 20.0%), Libero Copper (LBC.v down 10.4%) and Eldorado (EGO down
9.1% and another “ugh” emitted), while the winners were led in percentage terms by IMPACT
Silver (IPT.v up 5.0%) but in real terms, the 5.0% improvement in Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to)
brought more to the table.
We currently have 20 open positions, our self-imposed maximum. Eleven are in the green, one
is UNCH, eight are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.275 31.0% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.645 -19.4% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO hold U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$14.51 -12.3% 2025 guidance a problem
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.67 8.4% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.48 79.7% Quality Cu developer
Salazar Res SRL.v STR BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.095 18.8% New Ecuador trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.12 9.1% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Libero Copper LBC.v hold C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.30 -11.8% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.145 -23.7% Cu jr, disappointing to date
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% top fundy value, illiquid
Barrick Gold GOLD hold U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$16.00 1.9% near-term Au fliptrade
Ero Copper ERO BUY C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$20.47 5.7% near/medium term Cu fliptrade
Aftermath Silver AAG.v BUY $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.50 17.6% New silver trade, cheap
Surge Copper SURG.v BUY $0.11 22-Dec-24 C$0.10 -9.1% bulk copper in good address
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to SELLING C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.68 20.9% taking near-term profit
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.24 -20.0% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
12

A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.04 100.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.285 235.3% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.125 -72.2% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
none yet
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): SELLING. Don’t say you weren’t warned. The rally into the
Friday close is enough to make this mooted decision official and what’s more, if my hunch is
right and the run is due to the stock getting El Pumpo from market commentators and
soothsayers at this weekend’s Vancouver investor conferences (MIF, VRIC, it could go higher
again in the next few days. Therefore, I won’t be taking the first price available Monday
morning (or Tuesday for that matter, Monday TAX trading is likely to be thin), instead I’ll roll
the dice one more time, see what Trump’s first 48 hours does for the copper price and then sell
at some point as from Wednesday. But sell I will.
Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD) (ABX.to): MAY SELL. Essentially the same message as last
weekend, as we still haven’t had the GOLD 4q24 production NR, so no long-winded rant this
time (way too many column inches in IKN817) and instead, we repeat some of the words from
the end of last weekend’s note:
As for my personal take, the top of this stock note begins with the block capital words
“MAY SELL” because this isn’t a trade I’m wedded to, not in the least. From day one,
the plan has been was to position into the 4q24 production report then play any price
bounce once the news were out. Here we are on the cusp of the announcement, the
news backdrop around GOLD is far from optimum but on the other hand, the stock
price hasn’t disintegrated.
However, I am feeling slightly more optimistic about walking away with a modest win now
because if jungledrums weren’t good on the Q4 number, there’s no way GOLD would have
survived its newsflow last week and come away with a modestly positive result on the week.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): A quiet week of trading, but we also got news that the Auramet
loan has been officially refi’d and as a result, MAI is paying
Auramet the required fee in shares. Here’s the NR (8) and
here’s the bit that matters:
Minera Alamos Inc. (the “Company” or “Minera Alamos”) (TSX
VENTURE:MAI) is pleased to report it has received conditional
approval from the TSX Venture Exchange (“TSXV”) to settle
the amount of US$400,000 due to Auramet International, Inc.
and Auramet Capital Partners, L.P. (collectively “Auramet”) to
extend the date by which certain conditions of the original loan
agreement dated October 27, 2023 (as amended, the “Loan
Agreement”) need to be satisfied from November 29th, 2024 to
May 29th, 2025.
“In light of a shift in sentiment in the permitting environment in
Mexico in recent months with a number of other companies
providing timelines for receipt of their permits or permit
amendments in H1 of 2025, the Company believes it appropriate at this time to execute the extension to
allow financing flexibility as we work toward the completion of its permit process for the planned Cerro
de Oro gold mine and welcome Auramet as shareholders of the Company,” stated Doug Ramshaw,
President of Minera.
For full consideration of the US$400,000 extension fee payment, the TSXV has conditionally accepted
the Company’s proposal to issue 1,901,648 common shares at a deemed price of C$0.2949 per share.
By way of reminder, the product sold to MAI was a U$15m loan, comprising of a first tranche of
U$5m (delivered), then a second tranche of U$10m that MAI would tap once it had its green
13

light for Cerro de Oro and needed the capex. As we know, the CdO permits have not shown yet
and the loan facility had a limit date of end October 2024, but could be extended by six months
at MAI's discretion for an extra payment of U$400k, in cash or shares. Last week MAI decided
to trigger that option (note that Auramet has given MAI almost three months of grace on the
decision) and decided to pay in shares (TYSXV approval allowing, but cannot see a problem).
Over 4m shares looks a heavy amount for a simple extension and i suppose it is, but next to the
total shares out it's less than 1% and not a factor that should dilute the share price. We also
need to factor in the strong working relationship MAI has with Auramet and by all accounts
they're great people to partner with (something that regularly crops up in conversations with
various juniors and gold producers), so for my money there's no particular issue here.
Aside that, there was positive news from Sabre Gold as that company’s special meeting duly
approved the merger with MAI and according to the NR (9) the deal is set to close on January
27th. This is good and fits with the timeline first proposed by MAI when the deal was
announced. The closing should also take the shackles off the company being able to market
itself properly.
Following on from the above is a reminder that this Thursday, January 23rd at midday-ish
Americas time (check your local hour) sees MAI President Doug Ramshaw in a webinar entitled
“2025: A Look Forward With Minera Alamos”. Here’s the link to sign up and be there (10) and
here’s the blurb on the page:
“Join Doug Ramshaw, President of Minera Alamos, for an insightful town hall discussion
as we celebrate our transformational achievements in 2024 and share our vision for
continued success in 2025.”
Finally, all MAI holders should check out the Regional Politics note on Mexico this week below,
as better times are ahead for the macro. We now wait to see whether Santana has delivered
the type of gold production increase we’ve been looking for from the mine.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): The 25m share
placement closed in good order last week, so out pro
forma 249m share count is now official. In trading,
Monday saw a few cheaper shares change hands but
after that, 9.5c became the established marker. The
thing to like about SRL in January is its volume, which
has shown marked improvement since the year began
and while half a million or so per day isn’t much in real
cash terms (e.g. Friday’s 402k shares is just over
C$38k), but it’s tradable all right.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v) and IMPACT Silver
(IPT.v): With silver rallying nicely last week and doing
its thing (see above), both our silver juniors did what
they’re supposed to do in the circumstances and
provided (warning, cliché alert) leverage to silver. IPT
did have some drilling news from its growth project at
Plomosas, but on reading it couldn’t help but think it a
prelude to another share financing so decided not to
mention anything today. Just mentioned it, oops.
As noted above, being long just these two may means
I’m a little light on the silver exposure as we enter our
shining new Trumpian world.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): Keeping an eye on this Ore Group central hub company also keeps an
eye on companies such as AE.v, ARIC and MEG. Here’s our tracking chart:
14

OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.475 5.55 2.2
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.175 0.02 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.45 3.33 1.3
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.25 1.04 0.4
XXIX.v 39.10 0.12 4.69 1.9
MERG.v 5.125 0.035 0.18 0.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 15.55 6.3
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 16.75 6.8c
At 247.714 S/O
The dump in AE.v shares took several tenths from the OCI intrinsic value, so seeing it close at
6c is a bit of a b onus here. Those of you with faith that AE and/or ARIC can deliver in 2025
might want to consider fishing for these shares at 5.5c, it’s the way of playing those hot
exploreco stories while giving your speculative cash plenty of downside protection.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): A difficult week to hold these shares, the stock trading under 30c for
the first time in a long time on Friday before getting painted into the close. We got news on
Monday (11) that LBC had started on its… “…second hole of its 14,000-metre resource
expansion drilling program”, with MD-045 at that point
250m into its planned 1,200m length. That may have
caused some of the selling, as speculators did the time
math and worked out that we have several weeks to
wait from here before any market moving news is due.
Frankly, I’m in the same boat. It’s not a big position, but
the plan here was always to see the results of hole one
and trade out of them so, with that hole coming in okay-
not-spectacular there’s less reason to hold here.
However, this price is now too cheap to sell and not feel
as though I’m leaving money on the table and therein
lies the quandary. So for the time being I’m going to
take the yellowbelly chicken’s route and wait a while (like a rabbit in headlights?) and see how
it trades for a week or two before making a definitive hold/sell decision.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): We’re starting to get photos through of the early stages of construction
work at Fénix, via the company’s website and TwitterX account (12), so all good and here’s an
example of the images now offered up. To the left, the layout of the ADR plant is now clear and
support columns are getting put in place (which also means concrete has already been poured).
To the right, the leach pad is beginning to take shape.
15

In trading, RIO was up 1.5c but is still largely affixed to its recent 60-70c tight range, certainly
no need to pay more than that for the time being. However, notable buyers on the open market
include company CEO Andrew Cox and company CFO Kathryn Johnson, both positive signs.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): The only thing missing from this mix is traded volume, as the
company gears up for the announcement of results from
its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS)*, due in early 2025
(i.e. as from now, so it should happen during Q1. We do
get the occasional decent day, such as the 48k volume
on Tuesday, but even with that day last week’s total
traded shares was only just above 100k and when your
stock is this price, it makes it stodgy to trade. Of course
I get that the free float is small compared to the total
shares out due to the tight-handed instos on board, this
is just me trying to split a few hairs. Honestly, if they
were all as straightforward at MARI and ARG (today’s
fundies section) my working life would be 5x easier.
More boring, but easier.
*Not PFS as I erroneously stated a few issues ago, my mistake and thank you to those who wrote in and corrected me
The Copper Basket
After three weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 0.33% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 449.34 1.635 14.3%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 375.14 0.125 -3.8%
3 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 300.75 1.77 -6.8%
4 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 287.96 2.31 12.7%
5 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 278.36 1.73 4.8%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 135.524 227.68 1.68 14.3%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 151.95 0.74 0.0%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 149.50 0.59 7.3%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 101.45 0.67 0.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 79.54 0.475 -31.2%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 59.92 0.50 -20.6%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 30.96 0.12 9.1%
13 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 20.00 0.57 -5.0%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 17.12 0.30 -4.8%
15 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 83.164 14.55 0.175 9.4%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -0.33%
The 2025 Copper Basket average slipped into the negative, dragged under the water even
though only six of the 15 component stocks were losers (SOLG.to, ALDE.v, AE.v, ECU.v, LBC.v,
PM.cse), compared to seven winners (ATX.v, TMQ.to, REG.v, ASCU.to, BIG.v, HCH.v, KBX.cse),
with two unchanged stocks (FDY.to, XXIX.v) making up the numbers. The negative overall was
due to the weighting of big moves, with significant drops registered in American Eagle (AE.v
down 30.2%), Pampa Metals (PM.cse down 14.6%), Libero Copper (LBC.v down 10.5%) and
Element 29 (ECU.v down 9.1%). To the upside, the only double figure percentage winner was
Trilogy (TMQ.to up 10.2%)
It would have been better if it weren’t for the drop in copper-the-metal on Friday. Up to
Thursday copper was on its best daily winning streak since 2017 but Friday saw a sharp
16

reversal, as seen in this week’s chosen visual. Not only that, but ask around and you get
different reasons for the 12c/lb tumble, from “China stimulus didn’t show again” to “Trump on
Monday” to “Following iron ore”. For me, it was mainly just one of those market things; traders
need to take profits from time to time and long winning streaks must come to an end, for the
sake of market health.
Anyway, copper was still up on the week
but only by 5c/lb, instead of 15c.
Moving on and our carefully curated
copper fundies news section this week
turns its attention to Chile, the world’s #1
producer of the metal and two stories out
last week. The first concerns a bizarre (no
other word for it) study published by the
country’s metals oversight people Cochilco
and rather than use one of several English
language reports on the report, I thought
it best to offer a translation of its own
press cover mail:
“Cochilco expects copper production in Chile to reach 5.54 million tons in 2034, which represents
a 5.6% increase compared to the 2023 production of 5.25 million tons. Peak production is
expected in 2027 with 6.07 million tons of copper. By product type, copper concentrate
production is expected to reach 4.86 million tons and cathode production 681 thousand tons,
87.7% and 12.3%, of total production respectively. Copper cathode production is expected to
decrease due to the depletion of oxides and the lack of projects to extend the useful life of these
operations. On the contrary, concentrate production will increase due to the availability of
sulphide minerals, flotation plant installed capacity and a portfolio of strategic projects.”
I’ve chosen a couple of visuals from the report
(download yours here (13)), with the first showing
why this report turned so many heads; up to last
week Cochilco (and therefore Chile) had assumed
greater copper production growth, but the old
numbers are now used as “maximum production”
potential and instead, Cochilco has decided to
base its public finding on and “expected
production” number that’s a low lower. Indeed,
production is expected to increase in the next
couple of years and hit a peak in 2027 (just two
years from now), but from there things drop off
while the old figures, as see in “expected
maximum”, continue higher and beat 7mmt quite
easily.
When asked about this change of tack, the
Cochilco people told reporters they’d decided
to take a “more realistic” line. However, that
realism is immediately thrown out the window
when it comes to its expectations for the
world copper market, as seen in this chart.
There’s plenty more on the subject in the
report (Spanish language), but this visual
captures the essence and although Cochilco
expects Chile’s production to drop into 2034,
its forecast is for a greater market share for
its copper. For some reason (I’ve spent too
much times thinking about it this week to no
17

avail), Cochilco blithely assumes there will be no copper production increases anywhere else on
the planet.
The report got plenty of attention from the English language mining press, mainly because of
its forecast of lower copper production in Chile over the next ten years, but I highly doubt many
people got round to reading the entire document. Unrealistic is in projections for world supply
and demand, let alone lowballing its own country’s potential, it was weird and almost party
political in nature. If you want my best guess (and you’re going to get it), it’s some sort of shot
across the bows of the political elite in Chile, a sort of “If You Don’t Expand Mining Soon We’re
Done For” message.
Second up we talk Codelco, as the Chile State copper producer apparently had a poor Q4. This
report from Reuters (14) tells us the wire reporter has seen an internal document at Codelco
which stated that 2024 production came to 1.328 million metric tonnes. That’s lower than most
expected, including this desk as up to this week our house estimate for Codelco 2024
production was 1.391mmt and assumed a 5% improvement from 2023, mostly due to a
vaunted pick-up in the second half of the year.
The semi-official guidance had been led by Chile: Codelco copper production per year, 2013 to 2025
company Chair Maximo Pacheco and there was
every reason to presume he wasn’t just
politicking, because up to October its numbers
that seemed on track. Therefore and as long
as the internal memo seen by Reuters is
accurate, something happened in November
and/or December because 1.328mmt is plenty
lower.
Then during his appearances at the Riyadh
mining conference last week, Chairman
Pacheco (15) “…said the company's own
production for 2025 was expected to rise by about 70,000 metric tons to around 1.4 million
tons.” That was before abovementioned the leak, so we are now talking an improvement of
perhaps 680,000 metric tonnes to get to 1.4mmt. As the above chart shows, that’s still low
compared to every year until 2023 and isn’t much of an improvement overall. According to un-
named workers at the State run company, the main issues include transport bottlenecks, a lack
of mine optimization work at Chuquicamata and El Teniente (two of its oldest and most
important assets) and smelters still working at reduced capacity.
Enough Chile, time for our regular weekly look at copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 World copper stocks bounced back from an abnormal week two and the aggregate of
the three official systems rose by 5,409 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 435,506mt.
 The SHFE added 10,118mt to close at 88,796mt, a fair chunk of copper and the type of
SHFE re-stock we’d normally expect for this time of year.
 However LME went in the opposite direction and saw a net of 4,350mt leave its
warehouses, the total this weekend 260,075mt. Once again the difference was Taiwan,
where 4,225mt left storage.
 Comex copper stocks dropped by 359mt to close at 86,635mt. Still waiting on a move
away from this current 80k to 90k band. No guesses on whether it breaks to the upside
or downside, either.
The dedicated SHFE charts show the early days in SHFE and perhaps the best data point is at
the right of the second chart, a clear indication that the seasonal bottom is in.
18
226,1 276,1 237,1 807,1 437,1 876,1 885,1 816,1 816,1
644,1 523,1 823,1 004,1
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300 1,200
1,100
1,000
3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 tse4202 tse5202
MMT Cu
source: Cochilco, Codelco, ests

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
19
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Overall, while inventories have some bullish signs to point to for the copper market, the best
conclusion is the same as last week. It’s still early days for copper in 2025, let’s see how the
data look on the other side of the Lunar New Year. Now for notes on some of the basket
component stocks:
American Eagle (AE.v): The biggest mover of the week moved in the wrong direction and
one look at that price chart is enough to tell you the day on which this NR (16), entitled
“American Eagle Intersects 407 metres of
0.78% Copper Equivalent from surface,
including 248 metres at 1.1%”, dropped.
The issue wasn’t that headline number, as hole
#31 is a decent hit that’s in the upper quartile
of assays we’ve had from NAK so far. Located in
one of the better understood zones of the NAK
project, it provides continuation mineralization
and more information for the geols. A solid and
positive result and also, before we get to the
issue that dumped the stock price, we also had
news of hole #36 drilled in the South-East
corner of the known geological footprint which
didn’t hit much, but it was more speculative in nature and didn’t make any difference in the
great scheme of things.
No, instead the problems came from the other holes reported in last week’s NR. Not only were
NAK24-35, NAK24-37 and NAK24-38 drilling in what the company had come to call the “Jewel
Box” zone of NAK to the North end of the property, but in the weeks before the assay releases
it had gone out of its way to talk up the potential of these drill holes, making detailed
comments on what the team had seen in the core during the logging process and while the
samples were off at the labs, getting tested. As such, that none of these three holes made the

headline of the NR is telling enough, the reality
failed to match the hype and as a result, speculators
dumped the stock en masse.
This isn’t the end of NAK. Far from it in fact, it’s still
a very live project and even the “Jewel Box” zone is
likely to provide more tonnages to add to the better
defined zones to the South of the outline. Instead
the fail here is firmly and squarely on the shoulders
of CEO Moreau who decided to go full promo on
“visual assay” results when there was no need to do
so. The communication failure witnessed last week
is a serious one, it’s the type that gets speculators
with burned fingers to walk away from a “hot” story,
one that suddenly goes cold. We’ve seen this
pattern too many times to count but it’s particularly
sad to see a project with real chances of becoming a
real mine fall victim to over-hype and blather.
Perhaps AE people these days feel confident enough
to boast out of turn, what with two large miners as
strategic partners and a treasury full of cash.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ.to) (TMQ): The biggest mover of the week and one the market most
expects as a “Trump Trade” in our weird and wonderful sector, TMQ also handed down the
maiden PEA from its Bornite Project on Wednesday 15th (17). Bornite is part of the larger
UKMP project zone that includes the most advanced Arctic project, as well as several other
early stage exploration targets. This isn’t going to be a long study of the Bornite PEA, even
though the company pulled out the stops with webinars and video interviews on the
announcement, mainly because of this included in the cover NR:
“The PEA assumes re-purposing the infrastructure described in the Company’s current
Feasibility Study for the Arctic Project for use with the Bornite Project once the Arctic
deposit has been depleted.”
As such, this PEA couldn’t be any more of a “proof of concept” economic study if it tried. For
sure the data and calculations show robust economics at U$4.20/lbn copper and all input cost
assumptions, but if you can make accurate forecasts for the copper market’s financial
parameters for 17 years from now, you shouldn’t be
messing around with junior projects, instead you should
be on your way to your second billion, with all the fame
and fortune it entails (and you won’t be reading The IKN
Weekly, either). In fact, if it weren’t for the price action
in TMQ last week I don’t think I would have even
bothered writing it up because as seen here (chart
right), that announcement on Wednesday got little more
than a shrug from the market. Instead, TMQ ran on
Friday and as that’s the last trading day before Trump
becomes POTUS47, speculation on executive orders is
the more likely cause.
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): Another of the marquee companies to report holes last week and,
on balance, the 3c improvement in the stock price is a fair reflection the contents of the NR,
dated Wednesday January 15th (18). Some of the holes were speculative and mostly missed,
others went in to test the overlaying silver mineralization more than the deeper and more
interesting copper potential at Hercules, but the two holes that matter were good enough:
 HER-24-19: 149m of 0.78& CuEq (0.62% Cu)
 HER-24-20: 300.23m of 0.70% CuEq (0.55% Cu)
20

Nothing shabby (aside from the overburden
issues), those are the grades you’d want to
see from a robust system. That said, it’s also
telling that the comments of CEO Chris Paul
began with, “The Eastern Block Zone remains
one of the best undrilled targets at the
Hercules Property”, reference that zone that is
still untouched (they’re waiting on permits).
Also later he talked up a new and larger
geophysical survey of the area, that’s what
you do when you have not got your tiger by
the tail and need more information before
deciding where and what to drill next. Another
big tell in the narrative part of the NR was the
announcement that the VP Exploration had
left the company. That doesn’t happen when things are going swimmingly (and we should recall
that the strategic partner here is Barrick, a company that can be rather demanding to work
for….I mean “with”. Definitely “with”.
Pampa Metals (PM.cse): A minor personal dream for the future of this sector is that of a
market that pays far less heed to “visual assay” NRs, such as the one we reported on from PM
last weekend in IKN817. Therefore, seeing the stock
price do this was good, in my book at least.
Somewhere along the line, the world has lost sight of
exactly why explorecos drill properties. It’s not supposed
to be in order to move the share price up (so that they
can finance, get more treasury, pay themselves more
money, drill some more, etc) with a view to offering the
world a new metals resource with a live chance of
becoming a mine. It’s supposed to be to show whether
there’s enough metal in the property’s rock and if there
is, the share price can go up (and all the other nice
things follow on). Therefore, let’s leave the “visual assay” NR pump to the companies intent on
mining markets, rather than metals. As such and without writing PM off , I await the results of
the assays from its Piuquenes project in Argentina. After that, we’ll see.
Element 29 (ECU.v): This has come back to its
field somewhat since the December 23rd NR that
included a detailed description of the long hole put
in Elida. Those assays are still pending and in the
NR out last week from the company, one of those
Year End/Year Ahead “hello we are still here efforts,
we read that assay results are expected in the
coming weeks. Your guess is as good as mine on
the exact timing.
As for another guess, I’d expect the current 50c-or-
thereabouts level to hold until we get the lab results
for the 1.1km long ELID033 hole.
The Producer Basket
After 3 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 4.20% to level stakes:
21

company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1152.6 48.03 41.67 12.0%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 42.34 85.03 8.7%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 27.97 16.00 3.2%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 24.16 125.78 7.0%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.14 2.39 -2.0%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 2.97 14.51 -2.4%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.17 2.75 10.9%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 1.97 3.92 -1.5%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 1.69 5.71 2.3%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 148.95 1.39 9.33 3.9%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 4.20%
It might not look like it at first glance, but this has been a disastrous start to the year for my
ten picks to beat the GDX. We’re may be 4.2%, but it’s only thanks to the near-obligatory Tier-
1 miners included in the list such as NEM, GOLD and FNV and in that light, it’s not surprising
that GDX and its heavier weighting to the largest cap miners is beating us hands down. And
when it comes to the house choices looking to beat GDX returns, only New Gold (NGD) passes
muster so far and three in the red column after just three weeks when GDX is up 8.4% is
nothing short of embarrassing. Hopefully, by the time we fire up the tracking charts next month
there will be a better situation on show. Then again, hope is not a valid investment thesis.
Anyway, only six of our ten gave week-over-week gains (NEM, AEM, GOLD, NGD, SAND,
WDOFF) while the other four were losers (FNV, BTG, EGO, OGC.to) and of those, the biggest
drops were suffered by Eldorado Gold (EGO down 9.1%) and B2Gold (BTG down 7.7%). Ugh.
The only real out-performance to the upside was from Newmont (NEM up 6.6%), which also
feels like some sort of disguised condemnation of my 2025 list.
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): The first of my supposed turnaround picks for 2025, Monday
evening saw BTG drop its 4q24 production numbers (19), along with preliminary sales and 2025
guidance and you only need to cast an
eye on how BTG has tended to out- BTO: gold production by mine
400000
perform in its Q4 in previous years, then
350000
see the near-flat result in 4q24, to get the
300000
picture (right). We’d already been guided
250000
“…towards the low end of the Company's
200000
revised guidance range of between
150000
800,000 and 870,000 ounces” in its 3q24
100000
financials filings, but even so the 186,001
50000
was unimpressive and only just got the
0
company over the lower rung (original
guidance for 2024 was for 860k-940k oz
Au, the downshift happening in August).
As for the individual asset results, Fekola
at 84,015 oz was lower than expected, Masbate was its usual Steady Eddie and according to
the company, Otjikoto out-performed with its production of 52,452 oz Au, but it’s not a number
that jumps out at you as a massive beat compared to previous quarters.
22
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
oz Au Fekola prod
Otjikoto prod
Masbate prod
source: company filings
BTO: Fekola gold production, per qtr
880521 116311 755561 935361 846101 660321 339921
410442
468561 724251 249821 010341 141911 385111 70287 51048
250000
225000
200000
175000
150000
125000 100000 75000
50000
25000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
BTO: Otjikoto gold production, per qtr
Oz Au
source: company filings
24032 19862 95986 18687 16053 71413 86053 86006 19483 65044 04944 11118 61454 34184 13125 25425
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000 30000
20000
10000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Oz Au
source: company filings

BTO: Masbate gold production, per qtr
23
31575 87865 70216 92664 46795 57345 20994 78684 46364 87494 07115 19464 28794 51544 51205 43594
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000
20000
10000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Oz Au
source: company filings
BTG went on to report sales of 187,793 oz in Q4 and preliminary revenues of a round U$500m,
again lower than expectations on those lower
production levels but as this chart of top line BTG: Top line revenues, per qtr
revenues shows, it’s also set to be the best
quarter in 2024 and that’s testament to the
all-healing powers of a high dollar price for
gold.
The only bright-ish news item last week was
on Goose, as its major development project is
still apparently on track, with first production
expected in the second half of this year and
no further adjustments required to its (oft-
increased) capex. However, BTG had other
news for us when announcing in a separate NR that
it was cutting the quarterly dividend from 4c to 2c.
Then in a separate NR, the company tried to
cushion that blow by announcing (20) it was
applying for a NCIB share buyback mechanism (as
well as a long-winded lump of prose that explained
how wonderful it had been to have offered the
world 4c/quarter and they were lucky to be involved
with such a generous board of directors), but it was
no use, the share price was always going to dump
on such news. And dump it did, as seen here
compared to GDX.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF): On Tuesday we got (21) the WDO Q4 preliminary
numbers, as well as its 2025 guidance (and 2026 as well, bless them) and overall, the results
and forecasts were in–line with expectations. Starting with a look back to Q4, the first stand-out
is the strong tonnages milled at both its assets with Eagle River processing 60,358mt and Kiena
62,421mt. Seeing those mills running efficiently like that in Q4 augurs well for the coming
quarters. Next up, average head grade was slightly lower than expected at Kiena (please also
see 2025 guidance) and there seems to be a trade-off happening, with more lower grade muck
from the (cheaper to mine) upper levels making it to the final mix. That’s fair enough and the
combo of higher tonnes with lower grade works.
35.974 3.263 99.263 68.015 11.625 85.563 85.183 55.293
74.295
65.374 58.074 98.774 79.115 44.164 75.294 32.844 005
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
source: company filings
WDO: Tonnes milled, per qtr
42324
33184
42815
27646
15374
35155
94694
96645
44354
23615
96675
25525
12315
48975
12426
85306
140000
120000
100000 80000
60000
40000
20000
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
mt Kiena WDO: Average gold grade, per qtr
Mishi 20
Eagle River
18
16 15.5 14.3 14 13.413.7 14 13.5 14.1 12 11.411.9 11.8
10 11.6 10.7 13.1
8 9.6
6
4
2
0
source: company filings
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
g/t Au Eagle River
Mishi
Kiena
source: company filings

As a result, we saw acceptable production numbers from both mines that, in sum, beat out best
guess by just under 2,000 oz on the quarter. That works. Sales of 48,700 oz were slightly below
those of production, but at WDO those iron out over the quarters and no worries.
WDO: Gold prod/qtr
While on the subject, this longer-term gold
production chart (right) takes us all the way
back to 2014 (when the company first came
up on the house radar, includes the first
period of expansion 2017 to 2020 (when
this desk made good coin owning the stock)
and then the arrival of the influence of Kiena
ounces on the production mix, with the
second mine really hitting the gas only in
the last three quarters (after experiencing
development delays along the way.
Looking forward to 2025, guidance is now 190k- 210k oz gold. The top end remains the same
as it preliminary number offered during in its 3q24
MD&A, but the lower end has been tightened up
from 175k and that’s a good thing. Below the
headline guidance number, Eagle is projected at
100k-110k and Kiena at 90k-100k. Regarding
Kiena, WDO has opted to forecast a lower than
expected average grade of between 10 g/t and
11g/t gold, a range I strongly suspect to be on the
conservative end of the spectrum. As for costs,
they were expected to drop in 2025 and that’s
how we’re now being guided, with a consolidated
AISC of U$1,325-U$1,475/oz. In other words, with
capex items now largely paid and strong margins
envisaged, WDO is about to go into harvest mode and make some serious coin on all ounces
produced. Finally, our annual chart also includes the WDO preliminary guidance for 202 of
195k-220k oz gold, as announced last week. That remains to be seen and I doubt there are
many people about to make a final buy decision in January 2025 on the prospects of 1q26
production numbers, but it does show that for the time being, the WDO strategy is about
incremental growth and optimization of its two mines.
24
95102 54822 19302 47042 99842 27291 88632 20762
55000
50000 45000
40000 22865
35000 21421 30000 12144 8423 24763 8147 25000 7877 7369 20000 15000
10000
5000
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Ozt Au WDO: Gold production vs sales, per qtr
Kiena Mishi
Eagle River
source: WDO filings
86382 00003 29903 00023 06772 00072 81263 02673 22333 00753 53044 00004 90154 00924 76594 00784
55000 50000
45000 40000
35000 30000 25000 20000 15000
10000
5000
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Ozt Au
Production
Sales
source: company filings
WDO: Gold prod/qtr
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
41q4 51q2 51q4 61q2 61q4 71q2 71q4 81q2 81q4 91q2 91q4 02q2 02q4 12q2 12q4 22q2 22q4 32q2 32q4 42q2 42q4
Ozt Au
Kiena
Mishi
Eagle River
source: WDO filings
WDO: Annual production and guidance
88619 97209
348321 058011 833321
330271 000091 000591
240000
220000
200000 20000 25000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 4202 tse5202 tse6202
Oz Au
source: company filings

Bottom line: While best officially described as “in line” (and WDOFF was 2.4% up on the week
compared to the +2.2% registered by GDX, more evidence for the in line call), this was a good
and upbeat NR from WDO. It delivered as expected on all the key items, including Q4
production/sales, 2025 production guidance and that key drop in AISC for the year ahead. For
what it’s worth, I’m now in a running argument with a couple of market professionals (we’ll
keep the description vague, but both are highly regard in my book) as to WDO’s potential as an
M&A target. I say WDO could easily be bought out, they don’t and let’s face it, they’re probably
going to be right because it’s darned difficult to second-guess M&A action. And if I had full
conviction I’d be long WDO right now, QED. However, I do think there’s a logical path to WDO
as a target and there are logical buyers for this name, AGI and NGD springing to mind.
Newmont Corp (NEM): However, we need to
raise a cheer for the way in which NEM has started
2025 on the front foot. Used as a piñata in 2023 and
2024 (and rightly so), the world’s #1 goldie by
market cap is up, is beating the street and had a
particularly good week last week, as seen in this
comparative chart. Is this a reflection of good news
about to drop out of Barrick (GOLD) and its minority
holdings in Nevada Gold Miners (NGM) and Puerto
Viejo? We’ll probably find out on Tuesday or
Wednesday.
The TinyCaps List
After 3 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a loss of 1.77% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 20.08 0.15 -11.8%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 19.06 0.135 -6.9%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 13.36 0.135 3.8%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 24.43 0.14 -3.4%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 29.23 0.385 -1.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 7.72 0.08 0.0%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 236.796 36.70 0.155 19.2%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 8.06 0.075 -11.8%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 27.37 0.52 -5.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 118.384 16.57 0.14 0.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -1.77%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the
window a little and allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps List also slipped into the negative last week, with the five losers (BRO.v, ELY.v,
RDU.v, STS.v, VAU.v) weighing more heavily than the five winners (CN.v, EDG.v, KDK.v, LMS.v,
25

MOG.v) because the two biggest moves were to the downside through Electrum Discovery Corp
(ELY.v down 15.6%) and Radius Gold (RDU.v down 11.8%).
Electrum Discovery Corp (ELY.v): Up hard in weeks
one and two, ELY gave back all its 2025 profits bar half
a cent last week as volume dropped away and the
world’s MTV attention span did its thing. Oh look, a
butterfly. However, it’s a moment to be fair to ELY and
recognize where the stock price has rallied from, not
just the period starting January 1st, and the three
month chart (right) is a better indication of its recent
improvement.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): Up 10% and the best move
of all our ten, KDK last week announced (22) the start of
the process to publish a maiden resource estimate (MRE) on its MDP project. The NR has
details and a map of the seven zones to be included, with some zones needing more drills
before the resource can be defined to 43-101 levels (presumably inferred) and some ready for
counting.
At rhe end of the CEO comment in the NR, CEO Tornquist noted that, “It is important to keep in
mind that most known mineralized zones are still open in several directions and in addition we
have multiple promising and yet to be drilled targets across the whole property.” That’s another
way of saying that the 2025 MRE will be one of those “snapshot in time” counts and as such, I
have to wonder just why they’re doing it at this time, as soon as it’s complete it will be out of
date. Marketing purposes?
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Mexico: The Sheinbaum government is miner friendly
I’m fully aware of how antsy people are becoming over the mining sector in Mexico under new
President Claudia Sheinbaum. We know that she took over from her predecessor AMLO in
October, that she’s been framed as more pragmatic and that the mining industry there expects
their lot to become easier during her presidency, firstly as her government is expected to allow
environmental permits to start flowing again from its SEMARNAT environmental authority and
also because she will lift the de facto ban on open pit mining permitting, as well as see the law
project to ban open pit mining in the country either shot down completely or severely watered
down by the Congress her party controls. But she arrived in October, today is January and so
far, nothing has changed. No word on permits, no treatment of the law project, no meaningful
policy statements on mining from her or her government.
I’m aware of it, all right. I hold plenty of shares in Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and I get to read the
shouty people on social media who have started shouting again. Back in IKN803 dated October
6th 2024, the week Sheinbaum officially took over we ran the Regional Politics note “Mexico
gets a new President, we take a win where we get it” to welcome her to the role and also to tip
our hat to the move MAI.v shares had made that week, closing Friday at 37.5c (now lower, of
course). We were happy to see Ms. Sheinbaum in and AMLO out, as today we stated our
confidence that mining would get better under her tenure, however we also warned about
timing and noise. Here are two points made at the end of the IKN803 note:
Do not confuse the main takeaway from the next two thoughts.
 What lives by mis/dis information dies by the same. Be clear that the law bill to
ban open pit mining is not dead and while not a certainty, there’s every chance that it
26

will indeed be presented as stands to the lower house of deputies in the weeks to
come. If that happens, the same people shouting from the rooftops that “Mexico has
retracted its plans!” will get confused and try to explain their erroneous position away
to their flocks of followers. If so, you can bet they’ll find a way of blaming others (e.g.
Mexico) and not themselves. However, as we’ve been over this scenario before and
noted that the bill has stands has a vanishing low chance of getting through the lower
and upper houses, it will ultimately be a surprise setback and not a mine killer.
 We’re yet to see the elusive permits flow from the new Sheinbaum administration.
Be clear, I am confident that we’re going to see permits awarded as this government
beds in, but until such time as (for example) Santana gets its pad expansion permit or
Cerro del Oro gets its EIA permits, nothing essentially changes. If the wait goes on too
long, our ignorant friends with more followers than knowledge of Mexican affairs may
get antsy and shouty again.
IKN818 back and as seen in IKN816, we now know the open pit mining ban law project is
slated to appear before the lower house of Congress this quarter. We also know that the wait
we expected has gone on for a while and the ignorance of shouty people is back, trying to
impose their own agenda on social media. Bless them.
Which brings us to this week and the reason for today’s note on Mexico. Last Monday,
President Sheinbaum and her ministers presented her National Development Plan 2025-2030
(Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2025-2030, or PND). The PND is the centerpiece of her
government plans and all ministries have been working on it since taking charge, so the
Monday gig was an important one. It probably goes without saying that the PND covers all
aspects of Mexico life, not just industry and not just mining. To this end it announced 13 main
aims and here’s a list, with bold type used whenever they may apply to the mining industry:
 Becoming the 10th largest economy in the world (currently 12th)
 Investment greater than 25% of GDP (with 30% the target for the year 2030)
 Training plans to create 1.5m specialized employees
 Make more in Mexico
 Export more Mexico goods and services
 Local governments to purchased more supplies from local providers
 Produce more vaccines locally
 Reduce investment red tape to allow investments to move forward in one year, rather than
the current average of 2 ½ years
 Environmentally friendly investments, with investors paying heed to re-use, green energy
and waste recycling policies
 Finance help for small and medium sized companies
 Become a Top Five world national for tourism
 Reduce poverty and inequality levels
Several of those general categories apply to mining and FDI in our sector. However, the
presentation had many speakers (each minister took their turn) went into detail and then the
accompanying literature for reporters and analysts gave even more. There’s plenty to say about
mining related subjects after Monday, these bullet points capture the essence:
 Mining is designated as a Strategic Sector in the PND and make no mistake, that is an
important statement and must have brought much relief to those in the Mexico mining
world when they heard that stated on Monday. The Sheinbaum government recognizes its
economic and social importance and its contribution its exports being to the international
balance of payments.
 The Sheinbaum government is pro-mining and will encourage its growth, however it made
clear that productivity must be aligned with sustainability.
 A key point is that mining must incorporate more sustainable policies with a view to
mitigating environmental impact. These include the adoption of green and innovative
technologies, the mandatory restoration of affected ecosystems, work alongside
27

universities and academia to incorporate new tech and modernize mining. In return, the
government plans to offer tax breaks to encourage the reduction of carbon emissions.
 Regarding social and community development, the government will require mining
companies to run training programs for locals and improve local infrastructure (roads etc).
There will also be obligatory prior consultancy with indigenous locals for any new project,
with the right of veto given to locals.
 The government will launch an international road show to attract Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) to Mexico’s mining sector.
 As noted in the list of general aims the government will look to simplify and speed up red
tape and the permitting process, as well as enact new laws to bring better investment
security for FDI.
 Finally, the PND also identifies three specific States as key drivers of the mining sector in
Mexico, namely Zacatecas, Sonora and Durango (The IKN Weekly has previously
underscored the importance of mining in these States, one of the reasons that the open pit
mining law project doesn’t stand a chance of being passed as stands). These three regions
will be granted priority status by the Federal government for public sector projects that
improve and modernize infrastructure to help mining development.
Summing up, there’s nothing in that list which should surprise the observer of mining in Mexico.
We knew communities would be given more voice in the decision making process, we knew the
Sheinbaum government is all about social and environmental improvement, we know they
weren’t about to abandon mining and particularly not in States where it is part of the social
fabric. However, the announcements made on Monday were more positive than I expected and
taken together, make it plain that Sheinbaum’s government is all about improving Mexico via
economic growth and the financial prosperity that comes from hard work, not some left wing
ideological cause (as some have tried to paint things). I am the first to agree that the process
up to last Monday’s announcement has been slow and the lack of news and developments for
the mining sector for the last three and a bit months have grated (again, check the MAI share
price or if you prefer, social media comments from previous holders that have thrown in the
towel recently), but it was never going to suddenly transform overnight on October 1st anyway,
magic wands to not apply, this is government bureaucracy and it takes time.
However be clear: Monday’s announcement is an important moment, the presentation of the
roadmap is the official “Go” signal for the Sheinbaum admin and from this point, the
government and its departments will be expected to deliver on all those policies. This means
supervision and pressure both internally by public sector superiors, right up to and including
Sheinbaum, and externally from allies and opposition who want to see results…or else.
Summing up, the wait is (or darned well should be) over for Mexico’s mining industry and from
this point, we can expect action and initiatives to bring it out of its AMLO-induced inertia.
There’s plenty of reason to be cheerful about the near-term in Mexico’s mining industry, even
while the majority of the investment community remains skeptical. The change in public opinion
will need a catalyst moment and this desk will stick to its long-held opinion that the awarding of
a permit for a mining company by SEMARNAT, no matter what type, project, metal or location,
will provide that. That’s the logjam that needs to break and when it does, attitudes will change.
Shouldn’t be long now, thanks for waiting (23) (24).
Colombia: Mining under a new attack from Petro
A story worth watching is unfolding in the South Eastern corner of Antioquia, the department
(state) of Colombia most connected with the mining industry and home to many of the formal
mining operations we follow as outside observers. A national executive decree passed during
the Christmas period has created two new legal land status laws, one going under the acronym
ZPPA (Zonas de Protección para la Producción de Alimentos) and the other APPA (Áreas de
Protección para la Producción de Alimentos). The word “alimentos” means “food” and that’s the
central point, the new laws give the government legal to restrict the use of surface land for any
industrial or construction use, other than food production.
28

The laws are designed and promoted by the Petro government as a step toward food security
for the country and to protect farmers of all types, but the laws have come under fire from
several other sectors, first and foremost the mining industry. In this report (25), we hear from a
lawyer representing the mining industry, one Hernán Rodriguez, who said the law is
“…unconstitutional and is an law (article) that is already being challenged and will get more
challenges, I don’t know whether it will be upheld (by the country’s Constitutional Court.” The
report (translated) goes on to say:
“He (Rodriguez) warns that the rules have been expedited by the Environment and Agriculture
Ministries under the government’s development plan route map and “generate a great deal of
uncertainty in the mining sector.
Although the most affected to date are businesses in the mining sector, Rodríguez notes that these
are general laws that affect all industrial sectors.”
And…
“Rodríguez explained that these resolutions, along with the 044 decreee passed in 2024 “are used
as an instrument to prohibit all mining activity””
And…
“Another criticism of the new laws is how they take away autonomy from local governments
because they “impose on territorial entities at the moment they establish land use decisions in
order to prohibit mining activity”.
In other words, the national government has passed a law which will allow it to stop the
permitting of a mining project even if the locals are in favour of the development.
Please note to date, these ZPPA and APPA laws only apply to a specific region in the South East
of the Antioquia department and not the entire country (though the zone does include the
location of the AngloGold Quebradona copper project, which so happens to be a project Petro
vowed to stop when campaigning for President). However, be clear that the entire mining
industry in Colombia is watching the developments and the legal challenges brought against
APPA and ZPPA, the natural worry is that if they are established in that zone, famous for arable
farming and grain production, it could easily be imposed in other areas or even as a national
blanket law.
Ecuador’s election and the latest polling
The election campaign is now underway, Daniel Noboa has taken official leave of the
presidency to hit the trail, he’s handed off to the person he’s chosen as his Veep, while the
person he originally chose as his Veep says the job is hers and refuses to resign, while the
courts and the army refuse to recognize the original choice and are going with Noboa’s latest
Veep…but in reality he’s still President.
Okay, enough silliness and time for the reason for this update, a new poll from Comunicaliza
that underscores the two horse race between Noboa and his only real rival, Luisa González of
Rafael Correa’s Citizen’s Revolution party. This screenshot from the poll (26) shows both voter
preference in blue and in orange, the “Valid Vote” total when all the spoiled ballots and “white
votes” are backed out. It’s the Valid Vote totals that matter most on the day of the election
(just three weeks from now) as any candidate has three ways of getting to the winning post:
 Win with 50% +one vote
 Win with at least 40% of the vote and have at least 10% on the 2nd placed candidate
 Win in a second round run-off between the top two
As things stand today the most likely scenario is the third one, with Noboa and González
fighting out a second round as they did in 2023, but an outright win in round one is no longer
and impossible task and if that happens, it’s almost certainly for Noboa. Not only is he close to
the automatic 50%+1 line, but the rise of an alternative opposition candidate may leach votes
away from Gonzalez and leave her more than ten points behind.
29

Meanwhile, the same voter intention survey went into the supporter base of each candidate and
in the case of Noboa, the results were surprisingly good for a sitting President. This screenshot
(right) classifies voter opinion on the job he’s doing and 54.8% of those surveyed consider his
presidency as either “Very Good or Good”, with 38.2% on the negative “Very Bad or Bad”
Ecuador: Be selective
This desk’s new-found enthusiasm for Ecuador is based squarely on the conviction that Daniel
Noboa will win the upcoming Presidential election and be given a true mandate for his pro-
mining policies, but along the way I’ve underscored that it doesn’t make Ecuador a blanket buy.
Even assuming a Noboa win, it’s right to treat Ecuador in the same way as any other mining
jurisdiction with problem projects.
 Brazil: Pro mining, but don’t tell Belo Sun
 Peru: Pro mining, but don’t tell Alta Copper
 Chile: Pro mining, but don’t tell Los Andes Copper
 Mexico: Pro mining, but don’t tell Almaden Resources
 Etc etc.
Local community risk matters a great deal in all LatAm and that’s not about to change in
Ecuador. Case in point, Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) and its attempt to ram through a
prior consultancy meeting last weekend that was interrupted by the locals who got wind of the
plans. In order to get a valid permit for its Loma Larga project in Azuay region, South Ecuador,
DPM must comply with a judicial decision to obtain its social license and to do so, it must hold a
valid prior consultancy meeting. To that end last weekend in cahoots with Ecuador’s Mining
Ministry, DPM quietly organized a small event in a village close to the Loma Larga project but
30

not in the Canton that is most affected by the project and has been vociferously opposed to it
for coming on two decades (27). It shipped in 20 people from places outside the zone to act as
audience and went about presenting the mine plan with ministry officials in attendance, in order
to make the meeting official (or at least look that way). However, this is the same region that
voted in a legally binding regional referendum by vast majority against any mine being built and
when locals heard what was going on, they quickly formed a protest march, descending on the
location and breaking up the meeting. Then this Thursday the local council debated and
approved a resolution to ban all mining activity in the zone in and around Loma Larga. Noboa
may desperately want his next win in the mining sector, but he’s going to have to choose more
carefully than this.
Market Watching
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) redux
I’m not going to start strutting my stuff and boasting of Tier 2 producer stockpicking prowess,
what with the way Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) threw a large bucket of iced cold water over
my trading week with its Q4 NR and Skouries update (see today’s main Fundies section), but
the way in which EQX traded last week went
some way to justify the opinion as laid out in
IKN817 last weekend in the note “Equinox Gold
(EQX) (EQX.to): 4q24 wasn’t as good as the
market assumes”.
At that time, EQX had zoomed higher on its Q4
production numbers but we were cautious. Not
calling short on the stock mind you, it was more
a “be careful, wait and see, nothing wrong in
remaining neutral a while longer until we know
more” (to quote myself). As things turned out,
EQX lost 4.3% last week while GDX rose by
2.2%. That’s not a verdict on EQX and the
market reaction, but yes it’s a signal that we’re on the right track and those interested in
exposing their portfolios to Greenstone in 2025 should indeed wait on the sidelines until the Q4
financials are known.
Argenta Silver (AGAG.v) does what we expected it to do
In the Market Watching section of IKN806 dated October 6th we pointed to a new listing out of
the Frank Giustra stable, Argenta Silver (AGAG.v), as a stock to avoid if you were looking for
silver exposure. Not only was it being heavily promoted in a $500k campaign to the “less
sophisticated end of the market” but the asset on which it was based, El Quevar in the Salta
province of Argentina, was a known entity to this desk and there are very good reasons why it’s
never got off the ground as a project, despite offering up interesting drill results in its time.
Here we are nearly three months later and…
The 35c and 40c stock is now a 20c stock. There’s likely more downside to this one, too.
31

New Found Gold (NFG.v) (NFGC) gets vicious
While we’re in the bear nostalgia mood here at Market Watching, let’s do a third and final. Back
in late September and early October, we ran three notes on New Found Gold (NFG.v) (NFGC) in
as many weeks:
 IKN801: “A Queensway crystallization moment” noted the recent short report published on
the company and went into detail on the seriousness of the report (it looked solid, bad
news for NFG longs)
 IKN802: “New Found Gold (NFG.v) (NFGC) ignores its shorts”, in which we noted the odd,
“non-response” to the short attack by the company.
 IKN803: “Trying not to obsess over New Found Gold (NFG.v) (NFGC)” which wrapped the
series up, because otherwise it would have started to look bad on my mental health.
Here’s how that last installment, dated October 6th, ended:
“I ended the longer IKN801 note with “…unless NFG.v does something very quickly, its share price
has more significant downside to come in the near future” and that’s looking spot on at the
moment. NFG either has to break the preconceptions placed by Iceberg, perhaps by giving us a
clear timeline to an MRE, or it has to address the short report directly and refute its points in a
public manner. The longer it tries the “ignore it and it will go away”, the more those doubts and
questions will foment in the minds of current and potential shareholders. Long story short, the jury
is still out but if NFG doesn’t do something soon, a vicious circle begins.”
Since then this has happened to the stock price:
A generally available U$2.50 has become U$1.71, a drop of another 31% on top of all previous
losses. Not good. We’ve also seen major shareholder Eric Sprott move to Do Something by
replacing the Chair with one of his faithful lieutenants from other escapades, Paul Huet (as well
as other board swaps), but so far to no avail. The downdraft in NFG has been pronounced and
it’s going to take more than the promise of a long-overdue maiden resource estimate to turn
this ship around. So yes, if anyone asks continuity of your mineral deposit matters.
Conclusion
That’s all for IKN818, we close with bullet points:
 Another long report this week, they won’t always be like this but with several
production quarters to report, it’s the way the cookie has crumbled.
 However, I reiterate that for my taste and money, the section to remember in IKN818
above is the overview of the Mexico PND 2025-2030, as for some reason the
significance of the Monday presentation seems to have been lost on the mining world.
We heard unalloyed good news from President Sheinbaum and her team and now, with
the plan in place, we can expect real movement.
32

 I’d like to take profits on more than just Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) next week, the plan
in late December was all about playing the near-term market and so far just one of the
stocks has borne fruit. But I’ll take it and with the harvested cash, I may well buy some
extra silver exposure soon.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://x.com/Mark_IKN/status/1879598327932780818
(2) https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-01-08/trumps-tariff-threats-are-destabilizing-silver-markets-gold-will-rally
(3) https://x.com/Mark_IKN/status/1879861986558980371
(4) https://silverinstitute.org/all-world-silver-surveys/
(5) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPGkDg89vVA
(6) https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20250114.pdf
(7) https://www.eldoradogold.com/investors/news-releases/eldorado-gold-delivers-gold-production-520293-ounces-
2024-above-midpoint
(8) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2025/auramet-loan-extension/
(9) https://www.sabre.gold/sabre-gold-shareholders-approve-acquisition-by-minera-alamos/
(10) https://6ix.com/event/minera-alamos-town-hall-1?
(11) https://liberocopper.com/_resources/news/nr-20250113.pdf
(12) https://x.com/Rio2Limited/status/1879954450183516187
(13) https://www.cochilco.cl/web/chile-aumentara-a-273-su-participacion-en-la-produccion-mundial-de-cobre-en-2034/
(14) https://www.rumbominero.com/peru/noticias/internacionales/codelco-presionada-para-aumentar-produccion-de-
cobre/
(15) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/codelco-saudi-talks-copper-investment-2025-output-seen-up-2025-
01-17/
(16) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-intersects-436-metres-of-0.74-copper-equivalent-from-surface-
including-248-metres-at-1.1/
(17) https://trilogymetals.com/news-and-media/news/trilogy-metals-announces-positive-study-results-for-the-bornite-
copper-project-located-in-alaska-usa/
(18) https://www.herculesmetals.com/news-release/?qmodStoryID=8646880511112968
(19) https://www.b2gold.com/news-media/news-releases/news-details/2025/B2Gold-Announces-Total-Consolidated-
Gold-Production-for-2024-of-804778-ozWithin-the-Revised-2024-Guidance-Range-Total-Gold-Production-for-2025-
Anticipated-to-be-Between-970000-and-1075000-oz-Goose-Project-Remains-On-Track-for-First-Gold-in-Q2-2025-
an/default.aspx
(20) https://www.b2gold.com/news-media/news-releases/news-details/2025/B2Gold-Announces-Amended-Shareholder-
Return-Strategy-including-New-Dividend-Framework-and-Intention-to-Implement-a-Normal-Course-Issuer-
Bid/default.aspx
(21) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2025/Wesdome-Delivers-on-Full-Year-2024-
Consolidated-Production-Guidance-Provides-Multi-Year-Operational-Outlook/default.aspx
(22) https://kodiakcoppercorp.com/kodiak-begins-national-instrument-43-101-compliant-resource-estimation-at-mpd-
copper-gold-project/
33

(23) https://www.cronica.com.mx/nacional/2025/01/03/gobierno-presenta-plan-nacional-de-desarrollo-2025-2030/
(24) https://outletminero.org/el-pilar-minero-del-plan-nacional-2025-una-estrategia-para-el-desarrollo-sostenible/
(25) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/colombia/alerta-entre-mineros-por-normas-del-gobierno-petro-que-
prohiben-la-actividad/
(26) https://x.com/PrimeraPlanaECU/status/1879532986086941061?t=hQ5foLGZZo2zLoE7fW-BVQ&s=09
(27) https://ecuador221.com.ec/cuenca-rechaza-mineria-en-loma-larga-y-defiende-el-agua/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
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Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
37