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The IKN Weekly
Week 817, January 12th 2025
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Thanks, Dancing up the wall of worry.
Fundamental Analysis: Salazar Resources (SRL.v) is obvious value in Ecuador.
Stocks to Follow: Salazar Resources (SRL.v), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Barrick Gold Corp
(GOLD) (ABX.to), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), Patagonia Gold
(PGDC.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v), Pan Global (PGZ.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Hot
Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax), Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse), Pampa Metals (PM.cse).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Sandstorm Gold (SAND)(SSL.to), New Gold (NGD) (NGD.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Electrum Discovery Corp (ELY.v), Barksdale Resources
(BRO.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador’s election campaign begins, Notes on Venezuela last week,
Argentina: RIGI begins in Mendoza.
Market Watching: M&A in 2025: The hunters and the hunted, Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to):
4q24 wasn’t as good as the market assumes.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 The main Fundies section today looks at the stock I bought last week (as announced in
iKN816), Salazar Resources (SRL.v). It’s by no means a riskless trade, but the price
compared to the opportunity makes the potential very interesting and, with Ecuador
likely to vote in Daniel Noboa for a second term, I like the odds a lot.
 The Copper Basket checks out the relatively flat performance of the copper exploreco
stocks compared to the perky trading in the metal, then focuses on some of the more
interesting stories among the 2025 component stocks. Faraday Copper (FDY.to) did the
most to catch my eye, probably because a positive NR was overlooked by a market that
cares more about style than substance. For that, look at the Pampa Metals (PM.to) note.
 I don’t usually run longer notes in the Stocks to Follow section, it’s better to put any
extended thoughts on a covered/owned stock in the main fundies section or in the catch-
all that is Market Watching. But this week there are two longer notes included here, as
both Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) and Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to) have “May Sell” next
to their names and it’s best not to mix up signals too much.
 The Producer Basket this week checks out the 4q24 production/sales numbers from two
of our new entrants to the 2025 list, New Gold (NGD) and Sandstorm (SAND).
 Down in Market Watching there are thoughts on other people’s thoughts of what we
might see in the way of M&A in the mining space this year. There’s also a longer note
breaking down the 4q24 numbers out of Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) last week, as the
market liked them a lot but I’m really not so sure.
Thanks
Please accept my sincere thanks for your mails and messages over the week, most kind.
1

Dancing up the wall of worry
No big intro today, there’s plenty of real work to chew over in this edition without another
multi-page ramble on metals added at the top. Friday’s jobs number was one of those “good
data is bad” moments. As outlined in last weekend’s intro, the stronger than expected jobs
report caused the markets to sell off, risky assets were suddenly unpopular, all while
commodities and gold rallied nicely. Gold miners in general did better than their industrial or
hybrid cousins, something on show this weekend in the comparative performances of the
Copper Basket (down) and the Producer Basket (up). The week was also a franking of our
suggestion last weekend to “keep dancing”. In other moments, data suggesting a hot market
would see players concluding that that gold is going to sell, as the interest rate environment
goes higher than originally expected. Not this time though, gold rallied despite the macro
headwinds, not due to macro tailwinds and that’s a real tell on the true appetite for the
monetary safe haven metal at present.
Moving to this week’s US macro events, Wednesday is the main day to watch as along with the
Beige Book at midday, we get the corollary to the December jobs number when the latest
inflation reading from the BLS drops, pre before market open. According to people who know
(1), “…consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus
is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.3% YoY.” Once again, the drill
shoild be clear by now as a stronger than forecast inflation number feeds arguments for a Fed
curtailing its recently enacted rate cutting cycle that, in turn, is considered bad news for the
market. However, if inflation is weak it would allow Mr. Powell more leeway to continue cutting.
Once again, this leaves gold as a contrary play. Normally understood as an inflation hedge by
the generalist world, its real sweet investment spot is when the Fed rates go into cutting cycle
so, if next week’s inflation number comes in hot, gold may confuse some observers by selling
off. Don’t let it worry you too much, as this isn’t the time to react to gold’s moves. This is the
time to act first then ignore the market babbling.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Salazar Resources (SRL.v) is obvious value in Ecuador
In “Ecuador is a buy” last weekend, we laid out the macro-political reasons to be bullish on the
country in the first half of this year. In a nutshell, we believe sitting President Daniel Noboa is
an overwhelming favourite to beat his only serious rival in the upcoming presidential election.
The winning of a full four year term will give Noboa a clearer mandate to push forward with his
economic growth policies for the country and as he’s an orthodox right wing adherent of free
markets (or as free as they get in South America) and a strong supporter of the mining
industry, this will spell good news for those companies exposed to Ecuador.
Last week we also suggested some stocks that would benefit from a Noboa win and, from a
long-list of around a dozen names, got it down to four in the short list. Namely SolGold, Lumina
Salazar and Atico. Of those, I consider the first thee valid options that depend on one’s own
personal taste and/or metals exposure preference, while ATY is a more speculative and
potentially riskier trade. However, I was also clear about my personal preference, stating in the
conclusion that “…my clear preference is for Salazar Resources (SRL.v).” After that in the same
conclusion section, the note wrapped up this way:
“…up to this weekend my plan was to add SRL to the Watch List as from next weekend but on due
consideration I’ve thought again and decided not to waste time watching. Instead, Salazar Resources
(SRL.v) will become a full member of the stocks to Follow list as from next weekend and I will buy
some share on the open market in the days to. As such, I now owe you more than this brief outline
of SRL and its attractions so expect a full write-up of the stock next weekend in IKN817.”
I may have promised too much, as there’s no such thing as a “full write-up” on any company,
even a tinycap exploreco with a relatively simple corporate structure and game plan such as
SRL, but today’s main fundies section will go about outlining what I believe to be the most
2

salient points about SRL and its bull case with a view to explaining my change of plan and more
immediate purchase. We begin with the standard top-box on corporate structure:
Shares out: 248.859m
Options+RSUs/DSUs: 19.057m
Warrants: 1.114m
Fully diluted: 269.03m
Current share price: C$0.09
Market Cap: C$22.4m
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.70=CAD$1
Company, Management, Insiders: Even after running up 2c since last weekend’s note (see
Stocks to Follow below), then assuming the
current 25m share placement closes as expected, SRL.v: Shares outstanding
300
the pro forma count of just under 249m shares
250
out is still firmly in the world of the
smallcap/tinycap exploreco, with a C$22.4m 200
(U$15.7m market cap). Company founder,
150
President & CEO Fredy Salazar owns 37.01m of
100
those shares (and his immediate family another
1.5m or so), then other insiders an aggregate of 50
around 12m shares. There’s a fairly large insto
0
shareholder group, with biggest holder being
Simon Carr’s Arlington Asset Management/Group,
with around 22.1m shares at last filing.
Main Assets: Thanks to a recent development, SRL’s mineral assets can be split into two
categories:
 Its 25% holding of The Curipamba/El Domo Project. This is the current headline maker and
main event at SRL as. The subsidiary Salazar Holdings is 75% owned by Silvercorp (SVM)
now that it has swallowed the previous owner, Adventus Mining (ex-ADZN.v) in the buyout
that closed in mid 2024. The project is now in the early stages of construction and is set to
start production in late 2026.
 A suite of exploration projects. The easiest way to do this is via one of the maps on its
website (2) (below right). Until recently SRL had five 100% owned projects on its books ,
namely Los Osos, Los Santos, Macara Mine, Rumiñahui and El Potro, as seen in blue on the
map. It also has 20% of the Pijili and Santiago projects as part of its JV with Silvercorp
(SVM) but that changed just three weeks ago when the company announced (3) it had
done a deal with SVM, transferring Pijili and Santiago out of the JV and making them
wholly-owned by SRL, in exchange for a 1.5% NSR. That was an interesting development,
one we’ll return to below.
The 25% ownership of El Domo/Curipamba
development is the project that’s put SRL on the
map in recent times and let me be 100% clear, it’s
the single reason I bought shares in the company
last week. However, we should also recognize that
at heart, main SRL man Fredy Salazar is an
exploration geologist at heart, not a mine builder
and as such, SRL is and always will be an exploreco
with a long-term strategy to match. We care about
El Domo/Curipamba because it’s now permitted,
funded and is due to become Ecuador’s next new
mine but I am sure Fredy Salazar cares more about
the seven highly prospective properties on his books
and will be happy to have recently secured 100%
ownership of two of them from SVM. Indeed, as SRL
3
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings, IKN ests

is fully carried in its minority position at El Domo/Curipamba, the only reason SRL recently went
to market on December 24th (4) the day after announcing its deal with SVM Pijili and Santiago,
was to fund exploration activities on its own projects. That’s the 25m share deal currently open
and due closed any day now, set to raise gross proceeds of C$1.75m
More on El Domo/Curipamba: The exploration strategy is an important factor in the overall
company strategy and the reason to be long today, but this trade is all about the money so
from this point we focus on the El Domo/Curipamba project. Located in Central Ecuador South
West of the capital Quito, El Domo/Curipamba has been known to this desk for at least 15 years
(back in the day Fortuna Silver were close to buying it before becoming disillusioned with the
state of Ecuador’s politics toward mining at the
time). It’s a remarkably good grading,
polymetallic VMS deposit with (in rough order of
importance) copper, zinc, gold and silver
payable products. It has a 43-101 compliant
Feasibility Study which dates back to 2021 and
while the costs have certainly changed since
then, the rocks are the rocks and this general
resource table from its summary section (right)
gives a decent feel for what’s there. The mine
plan includes an open pit mine which then
moves underground after the first few years,
there’s also all sorts of ways to cut and slice this
resource in tables and charts (as you’ll see if
you get your own copy of the FS, spoiled for
choice), but when push comes to shove El
Domo/Curipamba will succeed or fail on the back of its open pit M+I resource, so that’s the line
with the red ink.
That’s enough to support a 1,850tpd processing facility and to ballpark the numbers for these
first key years of open pit operations, an average annual production of around 11,000 tonnes
copper, 12,000 tonnes zinc, 26,000 oz gold, 488,000 oz silver (plus a little lead, which our
model ignores). The project is fully permitted, with the mosty important permits awarded in
August (5), it has secured all required funding firstly via a U$175.5m facility from Wheaton
Precious Metals while still with ADZN, then most recently with the takeover by SVM, a company
with the cash treasury to fund the difference. Official capex is still at the 2021 number of
U$248m, but bodies up to and including Ecuador’s Mining Ministry estimate 2025-2026 capex at
U$300m (6) (and it would be no surprise to see that go a little higher). As recently as last
week, we got the first construction NR update (7) in which operator SVM has awarded the early
works contract (Bid Package 1) to Chinese engineering firm CRCC, with the main construction
contracts (Bid Package 2 and 3) set to be awarded in 1q25 (i.e. once the election is done).
All that looks very positive for SRL: Carried to commercial production on a U$300m project,
then good for 25% of what it produces, it’s around this time we start wondering just why this
company is only valued at less than U$16m all in. This table from a SRL presentation early last
year is the best way of simplifying what is a tricky payment regime (for our purposes, ballpark
is all we need) and shows the expected annual production for the JV and backs out the dues for
WPM, leaving the Curimining SA JV with approximately 20,000 tonnes per annum (TPA) in
copper equivalent (mainly copper and zinc), of which 5,000 TPA is due to SRL.
4

Gross proceeds of U$45m per annum for ten years? What’s the catch? Before we get to it, let’s
fill in the background financials on SRL, via some of our standard Usual Suspects charts.
Financial overview: SRL is a simple company in financial terms, with a straightforward and clean
balance sheet…
SRL.v: Assets per qtr
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
…and low expenses in a typical recent quarter.
It’s got its book of projects, its 25% of El
Domo/Curipamba is fully carried to commercial
production, its grassroots exploration activities
tend to be low cost so its structure sips treasury,
there’s no debt and carried liabilities are as tiny
as can be. The most important part of the
expenses breakdown chart (right) is the Y-axis, it
rarely spends more than C$1m in hard cash and
these days it’s usually around half a million per
quarter. As the treasury and working cap charts
show below, there was a time when it carried
and burned through more cash but these days
it’s lean and stripped down, most recently
allowing itself to coattail the El Domo/Curipamba development and not much else.
In fact, the only interesting angle to the SRL books is the fixed asset breakdown, below.
Interesting for its past history, as we see when SRL handed over El Domo/Curipamba to
Adventus and became the carried minority partner in late 2021. Also interesting to see how
much SRL carries its 255 of El Domo/Curipamba for, originally priced at U$19.8m, SRL uses the
equity method and over time it has dropped to just C$14.2m…and that’s Canadian. Finally,
interesting because in 3q24 SRL took a C$2.1m impairment on work done at its El Potro project
(after impairing C$1.6m on its Los Osos project in 2023).
5
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m SRL.v: Liabilities per qtr total fixed
other current 3.0
cash
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m
LT debt
current debt
source: company filings
C$m SRL.v: Expenses, per qtr
1.2
1.1 other exp
1 Stock Comp
0.9 General expl
0.8 Drill exp
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24
source: company filings
SRL.v: Cash Treasury per qtr
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m SRL.v: Working Capital per qtr
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m
source company filings

SRL.v: Fixed asset breakdown
6
765.02 438.02
650.22 106.22
180.51
524.7
940.51
118.8
359.41
983.01
928.41
867.8
589.61
823.7
729.61
756.7
158.61
058.7
613.41
938.6
324.41
227.6
863.41
080.7
942.41
663.7
702.41
163.5
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6 4
2
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m
other fixed
Inv in assoc
exp/eval assets
source: company filings
Those impairments show SRL is company that keeps its books very tight, but it’s the low overall
value assigned to 25% of the JV that really catches the eye. Considering SVM now values just
the mineral property at El Domo/Curipamba at U$203m (and that’s before it spends U$300m or
so on building a mine) it seems to seriously undervalue its holding in the JV.
With the stage set, now for the reason SRL isn’t currently value at a much higher share price
and for this, we quote the 3q24 financial statement directly:
Indeed, SRL is on a free carry through construction and even through the initial ramp-up to
commercial production, so there’s no reason to expect any financial headwind. However, once
operational Adventus (i.e. SVM these days) gets 95% of the profit made by the JV until its
entire capex bill is repaid, plus the U$40m it has made in advanced royalty payments to the
State, minus the U$19.8m carry. If capex ends up at our estimated U$300m, that means SVM
gets 95% of the money made by El Domo/Curipamba until it gets to U$320ma and if we use
the 2021 FS as our baseline then make a couple of reasonable guesses…
…that means SRL only gets 5% of the money made by the mine for the first six, perhaps seven
years of operations.

That’s a long time and that clause in the JV agreement is the reason why until very recently I
haven’t been interested in SRL as a potential trade, not even as a risk-adjusted way of playing
Ecuador. However, my position has changed and this brings us back to the macro overview
note on Ecuador in IKN816, last weekend.
There are three main reasons why Salazar Resources (SRL.v) makes sense as a trade today:
1) The upcoming election. This is the argument developed last weekend in IKN816 and,
while it applies to other companies and projects, it certainly makes a difference to SRL as
well. With Daniel Noboa clear favourite for re-election and running on a clear and
unambiguous pro-mining platform (unlike in 2023 when he hedged his bets in order to win
over environmentalist/community votes), his victory will provide his next government with
a clear mandate to advance mining. As noted last weekend, that doesn’t mean all projects
can be backed blindly (and indeed, only this weekend Dundee’s Loma Larga project has hit
significant protests from locals as it tries to get its prior consultancy meetings done), but it
does mean the easiest and most accepted projects will get extra impetus and with El
Domo/Curipamba now fully permitted, it will be in the front rank.
2) The progress made at El Domo/Curipamba. Following on from point one, this project is
now a completely different kettle of fish from the time when it faced serious community
opposition, up to and including violent roadblocks and international headlines in
environmentalist publications. I don’t mind admitting my surprise that the Adventus/Salazar
JV has done as well as it has to get this project onside with the majority of locals (there will
never be 100% acceptance) and has diligently moved the permitting process through key
stages and reached the goal of full permits. Of course, it has helped to have the Noboa
family as a shareholder in the JV project via its Nobis investment group, but even that
would not have meant much without careful and diligent CSR. With SVM now
owner/operator and funded to the hilt, the recent news of early works is timed perfectly
and we should expect the contracts for the main Bid Packages to be awarded once Daniel
Noboa has either secured his victory, or is viewed as hot favourite to win in the second
round run-off.
3) Silvercorp’s attitude toward its JV and its partner: This third and final piece in the puzzle
should not be underestimated. We alluded to this angle early in today’s note, but the way
in which SVM and SRL have recently struck a deal that hands over two projects to SRL at
minimal cost to the buyer is telling as it’s indicative of a JV that’s going well and has built a
positive relationship. More importantly, it’s the type of “clear the decks” deal that happens
before a smaller company is snapped up by a larger company.
Expanding on SVM’s attitude toward its new development project a little, we must note that as
from its latest financial statement (company Q2 for the period ending September 30th) it has for
the first time assigned a fixed asset value to El Domo. At U$203m, this covers the mineral
property and we’ll now see the development capex capitalized on top of that. If we consider
SVM owns 75% of El Domo/Curipamba and is about to spend perhaps U$300m at the project
between now and the end of 2026, it makes all the sense in the world to be able to put 100%
of its project capital on its own books and create an (approx) U$500m fixed asset, rather than
75% of the same worth a nominal U$375m. In order to do that, it would have to buy SRL or
more likely, buy 25% of the JV and let Salazar continue to exist as the junior exploreco it
prefers to be (including the two projects recently added). Regarding timing, it makes all the
sense in the world for SVM to move now (or at least once the Ecuador election is over and
done) while the construction is in its early stages, rather than wait until it has handed to SRL
one quarter of a valuable mine and then pay the market price for the minority share. With SRL
booking its 25% of El Domo/Curipamba using the equity method, currently at implied cost
minus time and at a mere U$10m or so, its larger partner could offer double or even triple that
amount, allow SRL to cash up and substantially improve its balance sheet, all while SVM gets a
U$125m fixed asset for a quarter of the price. The deal would work for SRL and would be
clearly accretive for the buyer, it would also mean SVM gets 100% of profits in those first six
(or seven) years. If we ballpark what 5% of profits would mean, it’s a reasonable U$1m/qtr and
could be close to U$30m over the entire period, if SVM decides to let SRL stay along for the
7

ride. It makes little sense for the larger company to do that so, it’s less a question of whether
SRL gets bought out and more a question of when. We contend the time is soon, while the deal
can be done relatively cheaply compared to the balance sheet entries of both companies and
with the macro backdrop settled in favour of a new and pro-mining President.
And that’s why I bought SRL last week. As for a target price, as this is a “strategy based”
purchase rather than a carefully calculated quant job it’s not so easy to put an exact price on
any deal but I would expect it to have two components:
 A significant premium to the current SRL share price. I would begin the valuation by
considering 2% of the capex about to be spent at the project (i.e. around U$300m) rather
than the implied value of the whole thing (i.e. around U$500m). If 25% of 300m is U$75m,
that’s C$107m at current forex. SRL isn’t going to demand or get anything close to that, but
SVM paying 30% of the asset value isn’t difficult to envisage. That’s U$32m, C$45m at
today’s forex or divided by 249m shares out, a target of C$0.18
 That 18c only buys the 25% of El Domo/Curipamba and not the entirety of SRL. There would
be no need to form a new spinco, as SVM can simply move to buy the 25% of the subsidiary
it doesn’t already own and let SRL sail off into its happy sunset. It remains to be seen how
much the market thinks remnant SRL is worth but a cashed-up exploreco with a book of early
stage projects in a jurisdiction that suddenly comes back into fashion must be worth at least
5c a share.
Therefore, it might not be the most scientific
price target of all time, but I’m going to slate an
objective for this trade of C$0.23, representing a
155% upside to this weekend’s 9c price. That’s
the kind of strong potential return we look for in
high risk tinycap trades ands with the story’s
ducks now apparently coming into line, the time
is ripe. Long Salazar.
Stocks to Follow
A mixed week for the Stocks to Follow list, with more winners than losers but more red on the
table than this time last week. Eleven of our featured stocks returned week-over-week gains
(MAI.v, EGO, MARI.to, SRL.v, PGZ.v, ERO.to, ASCU.to, IPT.v, PGDC.v, PAU.cse, MENE.v) and
while most were modest sized gains, we did see big moves in Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up
42.9%), Salazar Resources (SRL.v up 28.6%) and Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to up 10.3%). Four
stocks were unchanged on the week (RIO.v, RPX.v, AAG.v, MIRL.cse) which means just five
losers (ARG.to, LBC.v, OCI.v, GOLD, SURG.v) and of those, Surge Copper was the biggest
percentage hit (SURG.v down 8.7%) and was enough to see it with red ink next to its name this
weekend (true also for Libero Copper (LBC.v).
There’s something painfully ironic about having both Watch List stocks up by that amount.
With the addition of Salazar (SRL.v) to the mix we’re up to 20 open positions, that’s our self-
imposed maximum. Eleven are in the green, one is UNCH, eight are in the red.
8

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.285 35.7% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.63 -21.3% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
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Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$15.97 -3.5% undervalued midcap gold
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Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.31 74.1% Quality Cu developer
Salazar Res SRL.v STR BUY C$0.08 5-Jan-25 C$0.09 12.5% New Ecuador trade
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.12 9.1% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Libero Copper LBC.v hold C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.335 -1.5% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.145 -23.7% Cu jr, disappointing to date
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% top fundy value, illiquid
Barrick Gold GOLD hold (sell?) U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$15.84 0.1% near-term Au fliptrade
Ero Copper ERO BUY C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$20.78 7.3% near/medium term Cu fliptrade
Aftermath Silver AAG.v BUY $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.48 12.9% New silver trade, cheap
Surge Copper SURG.v BUY $0.11 22-Dec-24 C$0.105 -4.5% bulk copper in good address
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to hold (sell?) C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.60 15.1% near-term Cu fliptrade
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.22 -26.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.05 150.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.259 247.1% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.135 -70.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
none yet
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): POSITION OPENED. Further to the main fundies report in
IKN816 last weekend, this position is now open. I didn’t
get the 7.5c shares available at the bell, but when it
became clear there were no more decided that 8c still
wasn’t a ba price and bought a slug, which turned out to
be the right decision as that price also disappeared fairly
quickly and decent volume continued all week. Profit-
takers on Friday (I think) made sure SRL didn’t close at
the 9.5c high price, but that’s okay.
Anyway, this position is now open and active and today’s
main Fundies note lays out why I think there’s plenty more
in the tank here. Definitely buyable at any price under
10c, but there’s good reason to think we’ll see 8c again if volume drops back.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): MAY SELL IF RALLY CONTINUES. The near-term reco for
ASCU on the table above is down to “hold” and to be clear, if this rallies further next week and
gives me to 20%-or-so difference I was looking for when opening the trade (just three weeks
ago), I won’t have any problems about taking the profit and telling you about it next weekend.
For that I’d need at least C$1.67 to show, though the C$1.70 line is the real trigger point…I
think.
9

Anyway, ASCU moved up sharply this week on
fundamentally solid news when it announced (8)
HudBay was increasing its strategic position in the
company to 9.99%, this via a purchase of
“…11,852,064 Common Shares at a price of
C$1.68 per share for aggregate gross proceeds of
approximately C$19.9 million.” The strategic also
allows HBM to top up slightly if the other strategic,
Rio Tinto (RTZ via Nuton) exercises its pre-
emptive rights and also gives HBM pre-emptive
rights of top-up at later dates to ensure its 9.99%
position remains. And before moving on, all this
came a day after ASCU announced it was buying back 1.0% of the 1.5% NSR on a strategically
important zone of its Parks-Salyer property by paying $500k to royalty holder, EMX (9).
The ten-day chart shows that the market cared a lot more about the HBM news than the royalty
buyback, and rightly so. This is the type of official franking from a big producer entity that the
world looks for from its juniors and explorecos these days and while the share price didn’t make
it to the HBM C$1.68 price, it’s still a strong move into what turned out to be a Risk Off market
(due to that jobs number) that hit the copper stocks lower on Friday.
At moments like this you wonder whether the quick flip trade you planned may be leaving a lot
of money on the table and frankly, it may be a mistake to sell early and take the smaller win,
rather than holding and riding ASCU potentially higher. However and on reflection I’m going to
stick to the plan and here’s why:
 One of the reasons to pick ASCU was its propensity to spike higher at any given
moment. That’s happened.
 A plan is a plan. In this case, the plan includes positions in several stocks and a capital
deployment strategy of nearer-term and longer term trades. The ASCU purchase was
made with a near-term vision and I’ll be happy to take profits and use the cash
generated somewhere else.
 I don’t mind looking stupid.
After all, I manage a modest retail portfolio and not a fund. Or a mining company, for that
matter. One other matter to consider is share dilution, as while I freely admit that HBM upping
to 9.99% is positive and the ASCU treasury position in now healthy for all of 2025 and probably
well into 2026, it’s also more shares out and a count that’s ripped higher in recent months. It
also flies in the face of what the company told us about its fund-raising plans after the Indeed,
back in IKN802 dated September 29th 2024 we quoted company CEO directly on the issue of
capital raising and share dilution. During this webinar (10) on the back of the August 2024 PEA
announcement, CEO George Ogilvie was asked about treasury position and financing plans (at
around the hour and two minute mark, if you want to scroll forward). Here’s the transcript of
his reply:
"Right now we have just over U$10m cash in the bank, so the treasury is extremely strong. We
will have to raise money I would suspect some time before the end of this calendar year, but with
that, the market should not expect an equity financing. The management team of this company
brought in U$33m last year with the Nuton option to JV, which was non-dilutive non-equity, and I
can tell people on this call today that we have options on the table for raising money that is non-
dilutive, non-equity today. So do not expect we're coming to the market with an equity raise at
these extremely low share prices."
At that time six months ago, ASCU had around 109.5m shares out. Today after the September
bought deal, the Rio Tinto/Nuton top-up financing and this latest announcement it’s a pro-
forma 147.4m, some 37.9m shares extra and around 35% dilution to the share base (and all at
the “extremely low share prices” that CEO Ogilivie apparently refused to countenance). That
matters because at some point, big name backers or not, it creates headwinds for further price
upside.
10

The reason we bought into ASCU at the end of 2024 was a combo of 1) bullish on copper 2)
oversold share price 3) potential to spike higher in the near-term, not because I’m in love with
this stock or about to hitch my wagon to the team of influencers ASCU has on its books (be
they paid directly or indirectly, this company knows how the modern world of social media
pay2play works on an intimate level). In just three weeks we’ve seen all three of those happen
and if, as I suspect, ASCU has some more upside in the tank I will happily sell my shares and
take the quick-fire modest profit while there are plenty of people willing to buy them from me.
There’s a feeling in my innards that the most likely moment for another leg higher will be
around the upcoming VRIC conference, that’s in Vancouver (the V) on January 19th and 20th
(i.e. next Sunday and the Monday after). However and as stated at the top of this note, if ASCU
runs before next weekend and the current
C$1.60 handle becomes C$1.70 or even ASCU.v: Shares Out
C$1.80 this coming week, I won’t wait
around and I will sell them.
Finally, for those who think I’m dumb to
think about selling now and have more
faith in this story, reader AL was kind
enough to send in this link (11) to a
presentation made by ASCU geologists to
peers late last year. Of particular interest
is the Q&A session after the presentation,
when the team takes questions from the
floor and addresses one of the thorny
issues at Cactus, its metallurgy. There’s enough said to make me wonder whether I’m being too
bearish on the deposit’s prospects and the ASCU people make a good argument for expecting
significantly improved met dynamics as and when the current test results come back and are
incorporated into the mine plan. I thank reader AL for sending the link over, most informative
and highly recommended to the wider IKN Weekly readership.
Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD) (ABX.to): MAY SELL. Let’s get the obvious out the way first, as
so far at least I’ve chosen the wrong vehicle for a near-term trade on gold sentiment:
The ten-day chart above shows the GDX benchmark up nearly 7% for the last two weeks of
trading and how winners such as Agnico Eagle (AEM) keep winning in, up nearly 10% in the
same period. Meanwhile, my selected horse is up less than 2%.
That’s the effect, now for the cause and there seems to be no end to the negative news out of
Mali at the moment, the latest installment coming on Monday when Barrick informed us (12)
that the company “…remains restricted from shipping gold from its Loulo-Gounkoto mining
complex in Mali. In addition, an interim attachment order has now been issued against the
existing gold stock on site which further prevents its export and disrupts normal operations.”
11
3.43 8.14 0.24 4.15
8.07 1.17
7.88 7.88 8.88 8.501 0.901 0.901 1.901 2.901 5.901 5.901
5.531 4.741
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 ts52q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo snoillim

Along with that that slice of happiness, the NR had CEO Bristow saying that the company was
still ready to negotiate, with this snippet of the CEO quote…
“…Barrick continues its efforts to reach an agreement with the Mali government on a
memorandum of agreement to resolve the existing disputes, redefine the partnership’s future and
increase the State’s share of benefits from the Loulo-Gounkoto complex.”
… of company ready to offer Mali a bigger slice of the pie. However, Bristow is using carrot and
stick as the NR also came with a clear subtext warning, if necessary GOLD will put the whole
complex on care and maintenance and lay off its large workforce in the near future. With its Q4
production NR due out this coming week, the timing is ominous. And the fun doesn’t stop at the
Mali border either, as last week also saw GOLD make headlines in Dominican Republic when
protests against the tailings expansion project of its 60% controlled Pueblo Viejo mine (40%
Newmont) were violently put down by the DomRep police (13), with locals particularly outraged
by the way police waded in with batons, tear gas and rubber bullet then proceeded to arrest
and cart off to jail anyone being treated for their injuries by emergency services.
However, your touchy-feely hand-wringing anal yst must also put on his hard-nosed capitalist
cap and state another aspect to the latest news; all this did little damage it did to the stock
price last week. True the GDX out-performed, but there was no more dumping of stock and the
bad news seems to have been baked in by the market.
We’ll finds out if that’s true soon enough, as GOLD should come out with its 4q24 production
numbers this coming week. Please note it also gives preliminary sales figures and there’s a cleat
implication of lower sales compared to production out of Loulo-Gounkoto. As its Mali operation
has averaged a quarterly production of 137,000 oz gold since 2020, typically accounts for 14%
of its gold sales these days (chart right) and is one of Barrick’s most efficient and lowest cash
cost mines, there’s plenty in-play in this coming
GOLD: Gold sales from Loulo-Gounkoto, per qtr
week’s NR.
As for my personal take, the top of this stock
note begins with the block capital words “MAY
SELL” because this isn’t a trade I’m wedded to, not in the least. From day one, the plan has
been was to position into the 4q24 production
report then play any price bounce once the
news were out. Here we are on the cusp of the
announcement, the news backdrop around
GOLD is far from optimum but on the other
hand, the stock price hasn’t disintegrated backdrop. I’m prepared to be wrong about this one
and if so, it’d be a no-brainer to cauterize the trade next weekend, sell and move on. And even
if things go well, GOLD isn’t going to hang around the Stocks to Follow list or in the personal
portfolio for very long, anyhow. We shall see what happens this coming week, faites vos jeux,
mesdames et messieurs,
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): Unlike Barrick
(above), EGO managed to beat the market median
last week and that’s a good thing, considering my
personal position in this stock is substantially larger
than my dice-roll in Bristow’s lumbering monster.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): I thought AAG id fairly
well to remain UNCH on the week, particularly on
Friday when the market decided to go Risk Off after
the jobs numbers and the silver stocks generally
sold down.
12
1.01 8.21 9.01 6.01 6.31 6.31 5.21 4.01 8.31 6.31 9.21 7.21 0.41 0.41 1.41 2.21 4.51 3.41 0.41
20
18
16
14
12
10
8 6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
%
source: company filings

Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v): An interesting move, in price terms at least, as somebody came
for the stock, bought up 250k or so shares over Thursday and Friday and was willing to pay up
to 5c for the pleasure (or at least keen on seeing it close the week at new highs). This
demonstrates (once again) the issues with trying to position in thinly-traded tinycappers.
We like this story a lot and it’s on the Watch List for
good reason, but it’s nigh on impossible to enter at the
moment. We wait for news on how the people at the
centre of the deal plan on financing their now-permitted
Calcatreu mine project.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): Very little trading here, a 6c
finished and a 30% arb to its liquid-ish assets this
weekend. A side note that Awalé (ARIC managed to add
13.75% and once again bounce off that solid 40c
support line, but that’s all I have for you this time.
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.68 7.95 3.2
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.38 0.04 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.455 3.36 1.4
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.255 1.06 0.4
XXIX.v 39.10 0.12 4.69 1.9
MERG.v 5.125 0.035 0.18 0.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.035 0.86 0.3
subtotal 18.14 7.3
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 19.34 7.8
At 247.714 S/O
Mene Inc (MENE.v): When more than one trade goes
through on more than one day during the week, MENE
gets a mention. It popped to as high as 16.5c early week,
mostly because a Monday morning buyer seems to have
come back for more on Tuesday, then Friday saw another
84k shares change hands at the generally available 13.5c.
That’s a brighter start to 2025 than I expected, looking
out for news now.
Pan Global (PGZ.v): One of many stocks to give us one
of those “Reflection On Achievements In 2024” NRs last
week, the NR dated Thursday January 9th (14) was a nothingburger and little more than a
company doing the “Hello We’re Here!” wave at the market. That’s being slightly unfair though,
as the recent rebound is most welcome.
The last time we took a serious look at PGZ was
IKN801 dated September 22nd 2024 in the main
fundies note that day, “Revisiting the Pan Global
Resources (PGZ.v) long thesis”. At the time it was a
12.5c stock and I wasn’t happy with its
performance, but on review decided that it was at
least a hold and perhaps even buyable for more.
Here’s how the note wrapped up that day:
“The bottom line to PGZ at the moment is that
of a company and story that’s been beaten
13

down by a market sensing corporate weakness, the result of a not-great 2024 with the
drillbit, some executive decisions that could have been better and a treasury position
that’s drained to the point of discomfort. All those can change quickly (indeed, the
sooner PGZ announces its equity raising the better as far as I’m concerned) and if
copper rallies, at some point PGZ will get its own rebound. The good news there is that
at current prices, any relief rally means serious leverage to the 12.5c close this
weekend and can make it a good option for the risk-tolerant among the audience.
Personally and after spending the week thinking about my underperformer trade, I’d
be stone cold crazy to sell at the moment so it’s an obvious hold. I would NOT call this
a buy until the placement comes along (and accredited investor readers may want a
slice of that, though that’s one part of this mining world I keep clear of deliberately)
but once it does, there may well be a trade in the offing, one that would get me to add
and average down on my loser.”
Sure enough we didn’t have to wait long, as PGZ did indeed go to market and after upsizing the
offering twice, ended up selling 60.419m units at 12c apiece (unit = share + ½ warrant priced
at 16c). After that PGZ dumped hard into the end of the year, a classic victim of Tax Loss
Selling and while hindsight is very easy to apply, the period when it traded under 10c made for
an excellent entry point (that I didn’t take…humph). The recent rally has pulled it back to 14.5c,
which just about justifies my late September call on the company. Therefore, the job from here
is to continue to hold what I have but it’s now a lot easier to do so.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): We didn’t get the news or the reaction we were looking for from LBC
last week and as a result, readers are advised that as from now this trade is on the shortlist of
potential sales. However, I don’t think there’s a rush to see at this level and no point in taking
the first price offered, so I’m going to wait a while. The news in question came on Monday,
when LBC published the results from its first hole into Mocoa (15): “Hole MD-044 intersected
1,141 metres grading 0.46% CuEq* (0.27% Cu and 0.04% Mo) from surface to end of hole
(EOH)” (quote/unquote) and while the length was world class, the market sniffed at the low
average grade. Here’s the table that accompanied the headline, which zeroes the reader in to
the two sweetest spots along the hole, the last two lines showing 66m of 0.7% copper and
201m of 0.49% copper.
The company bigwigs went on the charm offensive via puffball interviews and YouTube
segments to explain why these results were great and how LBC had only just started at Mocoa,
all the “tip of the iceberg” stuff and that’s fair enough, geologically I fully agree. However, 1)
the market was right to give a temporary thumbs-down to LBC on the back of this okay-not-
great first hole, but more importantly 2) the people running this company can be trusted as far
as they can be thrown. When it comes to exact timing of the next marketing induced price pop
and promo push, only they know and that means at some point, little me on the outside is
reduced to second guessing the strategy of mining scumbags. I have better things to dod than
that, so if the price doesn’t rally in the next couple of week (e.g, on the back of VRIC), I won’t
have any issue in selling this speculative and small trade. There are better places for longer-
term cash.
14

The Copper Basket
After two weeks of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 0.10% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 428.72 1.56 9.1%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 390.14 0.13 0.0%
3 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 319.44 1.88 -1.1%
4 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 274.25 2.20 7.3%
5 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 252.62 1.57 -4.8%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 135.524 216.84 1.60 8.8%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 151.95 0.74 0.0%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 141.90 0.56 1.8%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 113.87 0.68 -1.4%
10 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 98.42 0.65 -3.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 65.91 0.55 -12.7%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 30.96 0.12 9.1%
13 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 19.11 0.335 6.3%
14 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 18.60 0.530 -11.7%
15 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 83.164 17.05 0.205 28.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 0.10%
The 2025 Copper Basket average somehow managed to stay in the green after week two,
despite there being just five week-over-week winners (ATX.v, REG.v, ASCU.to, XXIX.v, PM.cse)
compared to ten losers (SOLG.to, ALDE.v, TMQ.to. FDY.to, BIG.v, AE.v, HCH.v, ECU.v, KBX.cse,
LBC.v). That’s mainly because three of the five winners put on sizeable percentage gains,
particularly the clear #1 Pampa Metals (PM.cse up 24.2%), but applause is also due to Arizona
Sonoran (ASCU.to up 10.3%) and Regulus Resources (REG.v up 8.4%). To the downside, the
biggest losers were Element 29 (ECU.v down 12.7%) and Libero Copper (LBC.v down 8.2%).
Last week we noted the lack of urgency in the
trading pits and sideways nature of copper on low
volumes, end the section comments with “…next
week will give us a better signal of the health of the
copper trading pit.” And sure enough, it did:
From last weekend’s U$4.08/lb close, copper surged
higher last week and kept on surging, with buyers
returning and instos looking to position long. The
U$4.30/lb close on Friday is the highest daily close
since November 8th and marks a real change of
mood so this week, the suited-and-booted
soothsayers had more substantive things to tell us. Here’s Reuters (16):
“The broader backdrop looks slightly bearish but China looks good, actually, in terms of
demand for base metals at the moment, so that’s probably helping to push prices up a
bit,” said Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.
Firmer Chinese demand was highlighted by a spike in the premium paid over SHFE
prices to buy copper in the spot market to 145 yuan, the highest since September and
compared to a discount of 40 yuan on Dec. 30.
“The other thing is the fear about inflation is building, so that’s going to be good for
metals generally,” Smith added.
Investors often turn to commodities as a hedge against rising prices.
U.S. Comex copper futures (HGc3) gained 0.5% to $4.233a lb, or $9,546 a ton,
representing a premium of $52 a ton over LME copper.
Comex prices reflected investors attempting to price in the impact of hefty tariffs that
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to impose on China and other countries.
15

It’s wryly amusing to compare the sudden change in tone. Last week we featured that “Copper
At Five Month Lows On Weak Demand” story, previous to that the world was “nervous about
tariffs”, now demand is good and tariffs are, in fact, bullish for copper. That’s all you really need
to know about the relationship between trading desks and wire reporters.
We now move to a more practical question, "How many angels can dance on the head of a
pin?" Only joking, let’s stop this blather about a metal that’s going to trade higher no matter
what the bizwires tell you and move to our regular weekly look at copper inventories, data from
Cochilco:
 In a slight surprise, world copper stocks put in a small aggregate drop on the week,
down 9,378 4,022 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 430,212mt. That’s a nice bullish signal
to start the year and one reason for the perky display by copper in 2025 to date.
 The SHFE was the main bonus ball, with stocks down 4,496mt to close at 78,678mt.
We said that last week’s 9kmt rise was “Standard for this time of year” so it stands to
reason that the drop, though not massive, wasn’t expected. Seeing stocks draw down
suggests early year demand to secure physical metal and that’s no bad thing.
 The LME joined the fund and saw its copper stocks drop by 5,375mt to close Friday at
264,425mt. The main change was once again its Taiwan warehouses, which lost
4,675mt and pulled its store total down under 100kmt for the first time in a long time.
 A small 493mt add to Comex copper stocks, Friday’s close at 87,109mt. No biggie but,
as stated on a couple of occasions recently, Comex these days is more of an active
player in the copper price discovery mechanism, its numbers suggesting lax demand in
North America.
The dedicated SHFE charts attempt to map the two weeks of 2025 and don’t do it very well, but
you can probably see on the second of the visuals how the first couple of weeks of each year
will often have a period were copper stocks move sideways or even drop a little, before starting
their real upward climb. In context, the 4,496mt lost by SHFE on the week isn’t so odd.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data

Still early days. Now for notes on some of the basket component stocks:
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): It’s not a surprise to see ALDE come off the prices induced
by that sudden volume spurt just before the end of last year, when an ETF fat-fingered the
price back above C$2.00 for a brief period. We’re now back at the price level we saw before
ALDE announced its MRE update and while
I’m not in a rush to re-enter the stock, it’s
around this level I’d expect to see ALDE
consolidate for a while until the next round of
catalyst level news shows. That would either
be news on Nuton results at the end of this
quarter, or the eventual PEA due mid-year. Of
course, that careful and scientifically logical
timeline can be blown to smithereens at any
given moment by copper price action.
No reason to return to this time for the time
being, watching brief.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): We got an interesting drill assay result from this likeable exploreco
on January 8th (17) and, as often the case at FDY, its title helps the cause of explanation:
Faraday Copper Intersects 40.06 Metres at 0.78% Copper Within 109.42 Metres at
0.41% Copper at the Boomerang Breccia and Expands Near-Surface Mineralization at
the Prada Breccia
The casual observer used to reading about Andean or BC Canada porphyry targets might not
appreciate these apparently reduced mineralization lengths, but we do because we know what
FDY is trying to achieve at Copper Creek. The headline assay and the other drill result that
accompanied it in the text last week are good results for the breccia target, the main open pit
could be ready for expansion to the South in the next mineral update and as a bonus ball, the
zone in question gets tantalizingly close to opening up the known underground resource to a
separate access point.
There’s a lot of information in the NR and it’s a tough one to summarize in just a couple of
paragraphs, so you’re strongly advised to read it all and not merely my interpretation. That
said, probably the most educational visual from the NR is this one…
…which helps locate the two reported holes 077 and 082 compared to the current “Mammoth”
open pit zone and also the underground resources “Keel” and American Eagle”, as defined in
the May 2023 PEA and included in the mine plan. If we switch back to the 2023 PEA news for a
moment and dial up one of the visual aids from the PEA literature (18) (a large screenshot, but
let’s go with it anyway)…
17

…the upper map shows the location and of Mammoth, Keel and American Eagle clearly. So in
your mind’s eye, add the American Eagle surface hits as seen last week (and the other visuals
in last week’s NR help considerably in this) to the Mammoth open pit area, then also consider
how much easier access might be to the Keel mineralization when it’s time to mine that. On
timing, now consider the “Mined Material by Period” chart above and improvements a larger
Mammoth open pit might bring to those early years of production, as well as Keel and American
Eagle access as from Year Eight onward. Those FDY drill assays last week may have been
received with a shrug, but they bring potential to make significant improvements to the current
mine plan, both at surface and UG.
Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax): The write-up in IKN815 that re-introduced HCH to the Copper
Basket list ended with these words:
“I see no reason to hold this stock over companies with similar profiles and a more serious
technical approach (e.g. Marimaca), but my distaste has never stopped a company from
doing well and HCH is included because of the
potential to make me look stupid. It wouldn’t be the
first time.”
And so far (chart right) it hasn’t made me look stupid.
We remind readers that The Copper Basket is NOT a
list of possible trades, or stocks I necessary like. It’s
chosen as a representative mix of the junior copper
universe, includes the good, bad and ugly of this sub-
sector and for my money, HCH is one of the stocks
you’re best off avoiding.
18

Kobrea Exploration (KBX.cse): We got the first NR from KBX for 2025 on Wednesday, when
the company announced that (19) “…field crews have been mobilized to commence the 2025
exploration program at multiple porphyry prospects on the Company's Western Malargüe
Copper Projects.” See the NR for more details, but KBX talked up its first mover status in the
Mendoza’s newly defined Western Malargüe Mining District (WMMD) and outlined the
immediate plans by saying, “Initial exploration activities comprising geological mapping, rock
chip sampling and talus sampling will be followed up by geophysical survey in the coming
months.” It then zeroed in on one of the target zones, the El Perdido prospect, which seems to
be further on in the development track as they are looking to do “diamond drilling later in the
season” there. As with many of the targets, KBX believes the as-yet undrilled El Perdido to be
sizable porphyry copper-gold-molybdenum prospect.
In trading, KBX fiddled around in its current range. Watching brief.
Pampa Metals (PM.cse): Last week PM joined the unhealthy bandwagon last week of “pre-
assay drill results” (20), leaning on “hey guys we found copper” and carefully selected photos of
core to pump its stock price. The title line “Pampa Metals
Drills Bornite-Rich Copper Mineralization and Extends
Porphyry to Depth at Piuquenes, Argentina” is also suitably
rock-porny. The core photo pump NR is one of the most
insidious to have appeared in recent times, if a company
can’t wait until it gets third-party tested and certified lab
results before pushing pennystocks to the great
unwashed, it tells me more about the company and its
managerial mindset than they’d want me to know.
Anyway and unsurprisingly, the market did its normal
nodding donkey thing and bought the stock up on volume
Friday. We’ll see what happens next week and, more importantly, what happens when those
“visual assays” become the real thing.
The Producer Basket
After 2 weeks of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 4.78% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1152.6 45.07 39.10 5.1%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 41.98 84.30 7.8%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 27.48 15.72 1.4%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 24.40 127.03 8.0%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.40 2.59 6.1%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 3.27 15.97 7.4%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.14 2.71 9.3%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 2.00 3.98 0.0%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 1.68 5.65 1.3%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 148.95 1.36 9.11 1.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 4.78%
In a week where gold improves by 1.95 (GLD proxy) and the main gold producer ETF is up by
2.8% (GDX), you’d normally expect the Producer Basket to return a decent result. However,
that’s not the case this time as we only had six winners (NEM, AEM, FNV, BTG, EGO, NGD) from
our list of ten, the other four being losers (GOLD, OGC.to, SAND, WDOFF). The best move of
our bunch was from New Gold (NGD up 4.6%) as the market warmed to its 4q24 production
numbers, Agnico (AEM up 4.0%) also did well considering its size and is now just U$3.1Bn
away from being the world’s #1 by market cap.
19

The lackluster display means we’ve started 2025 on the back foot and around 1.3% behind the
GDX benchmark after two weeks, we’ll see how things stand in a month or so when we start to
use the tracking chart again.
Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND) (SSL.to): As usual, SAND is one of the earliest to report
its quarterly “production” numbers though in its case, the data are for attributed sales. On
Tueday January 7th it told us (21) that “…(d)uring the three months ended December 31, 2024,
the Company sold approximately 17,700 attributable gold equivalent ounces and realized
preliminary revenue of $47.4 million.” Fair enough, here’s the AUEq sales tracking chart for the
post-Covid era.
SAND: AuEq sales per qtr
20
59751 00471 40081 41551 68561 14781 67291 60622 35712
86382
00542 32112 05232 61302 41471 05371 00771
30000
27500
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000 12500 10000
7500
5000
2500
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
AuEq Oz
source: company filings
At the start of 2024 SAND guided sales to between 75,000 and 85,000 oz AuEq, then in 3q24 it
quietly dropped guidance to 70k – 75k, so that 17.7k oz gives a 2024 total of 72.8koz AuEq,
right in the middle of revised guidance. In other words, SAND’s is in line with expectations and
caps off a mediocre year for the company. Perhaps more important than the top-line sales
number was this information in the NR:
“Throughout 2024, the Company continued to focus on deleveraging its balance sheet following several
royalty and streaming acquisitions in 2022. As at December 31, 2024, the outstanding balance on the
Company’s revolving credit facility was approximately $355 million with an undrawn and available balance of
$270 million. Additionally, the Company purchased and cancelled approximately 2.0 million shares for total
consideration of approximately $10.8 million during the 12 months ended December 31, 2024.”
First the share buybacks, they imply SAND re-purchased around 0.9m shares during Q4. As for
the money side, the ballpark revolver number puts total long-term liabilities at an IKN estimated
U$382m and slight better than our forecast U$385m but, as the tracking chart shows, it’s not
easy to spot U$3m of difference:
SAND: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4 52q1 52q2 52q3 52q4 62q1 62q2 62q3 62q4
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings
The reason we included SAND this year is that we should start to see the benefits of its balance
sheet repair policy start to show. This desk was a vociferous critic of the idiocy showed by this
company in late 2022 to overburden its balance sheet with debt in order to purchase assets
that wouldn’t show benefit for a long time, it was a poor change of strategy and, as the
comparative charts show, we were right to lay into the company at the time. The above
liabilities chart is the most important one in the SAND tracking deck, the sooner it de-leverages

that mess the better as since early 2023 our contention
has been that we should see the share price begin to
recover once total liabilities dip under U$300m, we’d
programmed “mid-2025” for that and while that’s been
pushed back a little (mainly due to the extra interest
these fools are paying per quarter to service that debt,
which launched higher due to the base rates hikes), it
seems to be on track.
New Gold (NGD): Another to report its 4q24
preliminary production numbers last week, NGD gave us this NR (22) on Thursday entitled,
“New Gold Delivers Highest Production Quarter of 2024” and that statement is true, though
once you check the numbers…
…it wasn’t much more than an okay quarter. Gold production came to 80,438 oz, with just over
60k oz from Rainy River and 20k oz from New Afton. That makes it the best quarter of 2024 all
right, but as you can see from that first chart above it’s nothing out of the ordinary compared
to 2023 and other years. Meanwhile, New
Afton copper production totaled 14.5m lbs NGD: Gold production vs Sales, Oz per qtr
and that was the best number since 4q21,
so a cheer for that. As seen above, copper
sales were slightly lower at 13.6m lbs and
that’s normal for the payable mix out of
New Afton, meanwhile gold sales at
77,281 oz (chart below) were slightly
lower than the produced amount, that
relationship tends to fluctuate does mostly
to shipment timings.
Put it all together and make a best guess
at gold and copper prices and our
estimate for top line revenues for 4q24 is just over U$260m, some $8m higher than in Q3 and
mostly due to the increased gold price.
21
69038 69088 70586 12356 98966 48186 83447 58196 61238 78808 26196 11617
57635 32215
64717 72307 26128 60997 77428 70278 72567 91247 68928 12897 58708 43497 89807 77007 89586 28486 96387 29718
83408 18277 100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000
30000
20000
10000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
NGD: Gold production, per qtr
Total Au prod
Total Au sales
source: NGD filings, IKN calcs
43766 31565 10925 58706 00507 59895 61524 91306 12217 10266 28895 07946 09246 91725 89205 29816 68706
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000 20000
10000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
OzAu Gold NA NGD: New Afton copper production and sales, per qtr
Gold RR
source: NGD filings, IKN ests
5.81 5.71 8.31 3.31 2.81 9.61 6.51 0.41 2.41 2.41 2.8 2.9 4.7
4.4
5.8 9.9 9.6 8.6 3.01 5.9 21 1.01 2.31 0.31 21 9.11 3.31 0.21 6.31 3.31 6.21 0.11
5.41
6.31
20
18
16
14
12
10 8 6 4
2
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Mlb Cu
Cu prod
Cu sales
source: NGD filings, IKN ests
NGD: Top line revenues, per qtr
9.891 9.461 2.891 8.971 202 7.471
7.511
2.151 8.261 6.102 4.481 3.102 2.991 1.291 2.812
0.252
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
U$m
Total calc revs
Total real revs
source: NGD data, IKN calcs

Assuming NGD has a handle on costs these days, we’re in for a quarter that comes in a little
better than 3q24 (which was an EPS of 5c), but not much. Pencil me in for 6c, which in turn
implies a PE of just over 11X. Not cheap, not
expensive.
NGD: Net Earnings
140
120
Finally and before leaving, checking on the
100
evolution of the NGD metals revenues tracking 80
chart brought two things to mind; Firstly, this is 60
still very much a gold story no matter how much 40
improvement we’ve seen from New Afton 20
0
recently. Secondly and more generally, that
-20
chart next to a longer-term price evolution of
-40
NGD vs spot gold vs spot copper reminded me -60
that gold mining companies really should
concentrate on mining gold, rather than get
fixated about the “upside in copper”. One for
Mark Bristow at Barrick to chew over.
The TinyCaps List
After 2 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 0.15% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 22.09 0.165 -2.9%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 18.35 0.13 -10.3%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 15.84 0.16 23.1%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 23.56 0.135 -6.9%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 26.57 0.35 -10.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 7.24 0.075 -6.3%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 236.796 34.34 0.145 11.5%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 9.13 0.085 0.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 28.95 0.55 0.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 118.384 17.17 0.145 3.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 0.15%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the
window a little and allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
22
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
NGD: Revenues percentage by metals type
2.34
8.65
3.83
7.16
6.73
4.26
0.43
0.66
5.03
5.96
0.92
0.17
0.92
0.17
4.92
6.07
9.03
1.96
5.92
5.07
8.92
2.07
7.72
3.27
7.03
3.96
1.63
9.36
6.23
4.76
1.92
9.07
7.22
3.77
0.61
0.48
8.12
2.87
8.41
2.58
1.81
9.18
1.02
9.97
4.32
6.67
1.12
9.87
2.32
8.67
3.62
7.37
7.71
3.28
9.12
1.87
100
90 80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
% rev Cu
% rev Au
source: NGD, IKN calcs

majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
In much the same way as The Copper Basket, the TinyCaps List has managed to hold onto a
positive overall average by the skin of its teeth after a week that saw five of its ten component
stocks go down (BRO.v, CN.v, EDG.v, LMS.v, VAU.v), two of them remain unchanfged (KDK.v,
MOG.v) and only three go up in share price (ELY.v, RDU.v, STS.v). The biggest loser as Latin
Metals (LMS.v down 21.1%), the biggest winner was Electrum Discovery (ELY.v up 10.3%). So
now you know.
Electrum Discovery Corp (ELY.v): The volume columns on this ten-day hourlies chart show
that ELY continued to attract a fair amount of attention for this size of tinycap last week, as well
as a decent price rally early week that saw it trading readily at 17c and 17.5c. The catalyst for
the move came in the NR out Monday (23) which announced “…that following a rigorous
selection process, it has been selected as one of eight
exploration companies to participate in BHP’s 2025 Xplor
Accelerator Program (“BHP Xplor” and/or “Program“).
Funding from the Program will be directed to the
Company’s Timok East copper-gold project (“Timok East“)
in the Republic of Serbia.”
That’s good news for two reasons, firstly money, as BHP
provides $500k in funding for the companies it picks for its
annual Xplor Accelerator Program. But secondly and likely
more important, it’s a franking of the quality of the project
at ELY when a company like BHP (i.e. the world’s largest
mining company) takes a look at dozen, nay hundreds of projects and picks yours.
Barksdale Resources (BRO.v): Said it before and I’ll say it again, beware traded volume in
tinycaps. Highly touted explorecos need a constant flow of retail interest in order to execute
their strategy and this one certainly qualifies, with Crescat on board, no end of paid promos,
site visit reports, social media push and even Quinton Hennigh calling it a “no brainer”. So when
volume drops…
…then drops some more…
23

…watch out below. In the main “conference season” BRO was regularly running 200k shares
per day and often 500k, its Friday total volume of 8,000 (no zero missing) means it’s going to
drop.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador’s election campaign begins
Ecuador is one of those countries that has a set period for election campaigning before any
given vote and this time, campaigning for the 2025 election came on Monday 6th. The fun
includes President Daniel Noboa taking official leave of absence and handing over the reins of
power to his (recently designated Veep, after falling out big time with his previous veep).
Candidates have started doing the campaign rounds and stump speeches at this-or-that
location around the country and due to the brief period before the Round One vote, just four
weeks from now on February 9th, we don’t have to wait long for the first big event. That’s the
live TV debate between all 16 candidates, including the frontrunners González and Noboa, due
to happen next Sunday evening while I finish writing up IKN818 (I’ll probably have it on
headphones while at the desk).
Notes on Venezuela last week
Somewhat random, non-mining and by reader demand, a little on the fun centered around
Caracas last week. The only need-to-know on the events in Venezuela is that the dictator got
his wish, did his swearing in ceremony and is now set to preside over the country until 2031.
Now for some more minor details via a few bullet points:
 The tour of neighbouring countries made by, Edmundo González Urrutia, the legitimate
winner of last year’s election, that drummed up verbal support for his cause but did not
effective to stop the Friday ceremony from taking place.
 The lack of dignitaries at the inauguration ceremony. LatAm Presidents like as much
recognition as possible, so having just two Presidents present for his swearing in, Cuba and
Nicaragua (both dictatorships in their own right). After that, Mexico, Brazil, Bolivia and
Colombia decided to go the half distance and had their country ambassadors present for the
ceremony and while not nearly as prestigious, it gives Maduro the right to say his presidency
is officially recognized by those countries. Meanwhile, the obvious stay-aways aside (USA, EU,
UK etc) the most notable absentees were Argentina, Chile, Peru, Paraguay, Ecuador and
Panama. All those matter to regional diplomacy.
 The central opposition figure, Maria Corina Machado, made a speech to a few thousand
protesters in Caracas the day before the event and on the way from the rally was briefly
detained by Venezuelan police. This caused an immediate outcry but the Maduro side played
their cards well (slyly), detaining her only briefly and letting her go, then making the
international calls for her immediate release look a bit silly. It was a smart move by the
regime and on this point, a reminder that one of the reasons the Chávez/Maduro regime has
survived as long as it has is because the opposition has been notoriously clumsy over the
years, often falling into this type of political trap. Just because the Venezuela regime are
sinners, it doesn’t make their direct opposition perfect saints of democratic ideals.
 All week the election winner Edmundo González Urrutia said he’d arrive in Caracas in order to
take his place as rightful elected leader and it’s now widely know he was in Dominican
Republic, ready to travel with a posse of international political figures (mostly ex-Presidents of
Spanish speaking countries) to do so. However (and frankly logically), he didn’t go through
with the idea. Notably, Maduro was obviously concerned about this until the day, for example
bringing forward the inauguration ceremony by 90 minutes in a last minute surprise move.
24

 All those and more, but on the whole the day went off without any massive street
demonstrations, be that celebrations by Maduro loyalists or protests from his detractors (the
atmosphere in Venezuela these days is mostly a fear of speaking out).
Argentina: RIGI begins in Mendoza
It’s not a mining project, but it is a RIGI project and last week it became the first project to get
official approval for investment and construction under the new RIGI foreign investment laws,
passed by President Javier Milei. The “El Quemado Solar Park” is located in Mendoza, owned by
a JV that includes Argentina’s main oil company YPF, and once the 350 hectares of solar panels
are installed, will generate around 305MW of power (according to the plans, at least). The total
investment comes to U$211m, just over the U$200m minimum required for RIGI (24).
Market Watching
M&A in 2025: The hunters and the hunted
Along the way last week, my eye was caught by this report in the Globe & Mail (25) on a
mining market report just published by Canada’s National Bank (NBF). I haven’t read the full
report and that’s not necessary for our purposes today, as the interesting bit came when G&M
listed the NBF’s ideas for M&A buyers and targets for 2025. Here’s G&M quoting the report:
"In our view, near-term price volatility and favourable long-term fundamentals create a
market environment where gold producers will continue to shop for opportunities to add
long-term precious metal growth to their portfolios at attractive valuations,” they said. “We
outline near-term FCF generation and production growth across our universe and when
weighed against balance sheet strength/valuations, identify: $ABX, $AEM, $DPM, $FNV,
$LUG, $K, $PAAS, $OGC, $ORA and $WDO as likely consolidators and $ABRA, $AMX,
$ARTG, $ELD, $EQX, $IAU, $IMG, $KNT, $MAG, $NGD, $ODV, $OR, $PPTA, $SGD and
$VZLA as potential acquisition targets."
In other words, the great and the good at NBF have made a list of who they think will be
buying other companies and who their targets are and, as usual, I have opinions (smiles at
camera). Not on all of them, in other cases the NBF calls are fairly obvious, but away from
those I feel like adding a couple of centavos’ worth to the conversation. Here’s the list of tickers
as presented in the Grope & Fail report, with some words added. First the NBF list of potential
buyers:
 $ABX: Barrick is an obvious call as an acquirer, they need to buy something.
 $AEM Agnico Eagle is another obvious call, they have treasury
 $DPM Dundee PM. Maybe.
 $FNV Franco-Nevada. Obvious, royaltycos live to deal.
 $LUG Lundin Gold. Yes agreed. It’s why I left it off the 2025 Producer Basket, likely
to buy something big enough to cause share price drag.
 $K Kinross. I disagree. After buying Great Bear well, no need.
 $PAAS Pan American. Maybe, it’s very gold-heavy at the moment, so adding a
workable silver asset (i.e. not Escobal or Navidad) would be logical.
 $OGC OceanaGold. I disagree, it can work its organic pipeline.
 $ORA Aura. I disagree, no need.
 $WDO Wesdome. Maybe, but I see it more as a target than as a buyer.
Now the NBF list of potential targets
 $ABRA AbraSilver. Maybe.
 $AMX Amex Exploration. Maybe and what’s more, it has a likely suitor in 9.9%
strategic shareholder Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), which begs the question as to
why NBF left EGO off its list of buyers above.
 $ARTG Artemis. Maybe
2 5

 $ELD Eldorado Gold. Maybe and as a shareholder I like seeing it in this section of the
NBF list. It would have been more likely if SSRI hadn’t made such a mess in Turkey
last year.
 $EQX Equinox Gold. Cannot see it. Greenstone improves the company (see below)
but its asset book is still too weighed toward mature, high cash cost assets.
 $IAU i-80 gold. Disagree. Too much financial debt for the bother, EQX dumped its
shares for a good reason.
 $IMG IAMGOLD. Maybe, somebody needs to put it out of its misery one day.
 $KNT K92. Maybe, one I called 100% wrong back in the day. They were right, I was
wrong and I don’t have a valid opinion.
 $MAG MAG Silver. Maybe and if it does, it’s Fresnillo.
 $NGD New Gold. Maybe and that’s something I wouldn’t have said even a year ago.
Both assets have improved substantially (see Producer Basket today).
 $ODV Osisko Development. No. Both Cariboo and Tintic are overrated.
 $OR Osisko Gold Royalties. Maybe and if Franco-Nevada were to choose one of its
rivals to buy, it would surely be this one. Despite the name, its exposure to copper
must be very attractive to FNV these days.
 $PPTA Perpetua. Maybe, no strong opinion.
 $SGD Snowline. Unlikely this year, B2Gold is too busy getting the mess at Goose
fixed.
 $VZLA Vizsla Silver. Maybe.
You may, of course, disagree with either NBF or myself (or both) and that’s fair enough, but I
found the NBF list a good way of crystallizing my own thoughts about the M&A market for
2025, those companies and others beside. For what it’s worth, at this stage the only glaring
miss I’d add to the targets is Wesdome (WDO.to). NBF considers it one the other side of
dealflow and that’s perfectly possible of course (you eat or get eaten) but the combo of WDO’s
current price and its very desirable assets (two high-grade, profitable gold mines with high
likelihood of considerable mine life extensions located in the optimum political jurisdictions)
means shareholders will see it worth more to the buyer than to empire expansion.
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to): 4q24 wasn’t as good as the market assumes
For a clear demonstration of the highly positive reception for Equinox Gold’s (EQX.to) 4q24
production numbers, this ten day chart of the
company’s Canadian ticker versus the GDX benchmark
(no USA trading Thursday) does the job very nicely.
The NR (26) “Equinox Gold Reports Record Quarterly
and Annual Gold Production: Produced 213,960
Ounces of Gold in Q4 2024 and 621,870 Ounces of
Gold for Full-year 2024” came with a well-written title
line that hit the greed glands of the casual observer
(“hey…200k multiplied by four is more than 600k…oh,
that’s interesting!”) and for those who know more
about the key Greenstone development project,
reading President & CEO Greg Smith’s comments
would also have brought cheer: “2024 was a pivotal year for Equinox Gold, defined by our
success at Greenstone. We consolidated 100% ownership of the mine, achieved commercial
production, and produced more than 111,700 ounces of gold in the first, partial year of
operations at Greenstone. Several of our mines delivered their strongest fourth quarter in the
Company’s history, contributing to consolidated 2024 production of approximately 621,870
ounces of gold, the highest annual production since Equinox Gold’s founding. As Greenstone
ramps up to full capacity, we look forward to continued growth in 2025.”
26

This consolidated production chart shows that record quarter over on the right, it also
demonstrates the importance of the new Greenstone mine and what it’s set to do to the
production mix at EQX. We remind readers that once at full tilt, Greenstone is slated to produce
around 400,000 oz gold per year, i.e. 100k/qtr.
EQX: Consolidated production
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
27
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 42q4
Oz Au
Los Filos Mesquite
Aurizona Fazenda
RDM Castle Mtn
Santa Luz Greenstone
source: company filings, IKN ests
The market applauded, the stock got bought and then bought again as sell side brokerages
covering EQX (i.e. all of them, we’re talking Ross Beaty here) published their own positive spins
on the numbers. All good, fine and dandy, so it’s left to the independent curmudgeon running
the publication with no ties or biased to quietly suggest that the EQX Q4 wasn’t that wonderful
and you may need to consider the potential of it correcting back once the Year-End Financials
are filed in late February.
To explain, we start with the main visual included in last week’s NR:
That’s a reasonable list of results, with just Fazenda and Santa Luz failing to make guidance, it
seems. What’s more, just one day before the production NR EQX announced it
had extended the Fazenda mine life by a full nine years (27), so that just leaves
Santa Luz as its weak spot, right?
Well, not exactly. First let’s consider the original guidance from the company for
2024, as seen in the YE 2023 MD&A (inset right). Here’s a run-down of what
EQX estimated and how those numbers were adjusted during the year:
 Its 60% ownership of Greenstone would be good for between 105k oz and
125k oz in the year. With the 100% consolidation of Greenstone and
subsequent announcement of ramp-up delays, this was eventually altered to
the 110-130k you see above as late as October 16th. In other words,
Greenstone was given a 20k wide range for 4q24 alone and only just scraped
in at the lower end.

 Mesquite’s 2024 was forecast to be between 75k oz to 85k oz. This was dropped in August
to 55-65k oz, so the 72k oz result now looks like a beat when, according to the original
plan it’s a miss.
 Castle Mountain was originally framed at 30-35k oz Au. That’s a big difference from reality,
a mine that was put on care & maintenance and now giving residual production from the
leach pads (and as you’d expect, Q4 dropped off sharply)
 Los Filos was guided at 155-175k oz and was left unchanged, so its 170k oz production
came in toward the top end and is a genuine win for EQX.
 Aurizona saw a significant attitude adjustment in 2024, with guidance originally 110-120k
oz Au. The “geotechnical event” (i.e. pit wall collapse) reported by the company in April
changed things considerably and as things turned out, the mine just managed to make the
lower end of the significantly revised 70k-80k guidance.
 Fazenda was guided for 2024 at 65k-70k and stayed at that level, so its 62k is a “genuine
miss” (let’s say).
 Santa Luz was originally forecast to produce 70k-80k oz Au in 2024, its guidance stayed at
that level all year, therefore it’s another “genuine miss”.
 Finally, RDM was originally forecast to produce 50k-60k oz Au in 2024 and its guidance was
left unchanged, so it managed to hit the midpoint. All good here.
Long story short, EQX missed the bottom end of its original 2024 guidance by nearly 40k oz Au
and its Aurizona-adjusted number by nearly 35k oz. It’s only when we got a second revision in
August, down to 590k-675k, that the company managed to find a number it could beat (and
even then, at the lower end of a wide range). The final adjustment came as late as October
16th (28) and the revision to the revision to the revision of its Greenstone target, which makes
one wonder why the company bothers issuing an annual guidance number in the first place.
In order to illustrate a little further, the following charts show the data as seen in the
Consolidated production chart above, split down for the individual mines. Some of these results
are more consequential than others, so we’ll begin
with the relatively less important and work up the
ladder.
Castle Mountain came in with a low number, as
expected now that the mine is on Care &
Maintenance and any production is residual. We
should expect production to tail off further in the
first quarters of 2025 though the silver lining is that
due to the lack of work on site, opex costs will be
low and the recovered ounces will show good
margin.
Next in line is Santa Luz, which capped a mediocre 2024 with a mediocre Q4.
EQX Santa Luz: Gold production, per qtr
28
012
1555
48171 08641 58441 12351 23351 44021 63811 72631 05661 78741
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
EQX: Castle Mountain gold production, per qtr
Oz Au
source: company filings
1325
9776
3905
4216
5544
7616
7324
7795
6174
8416 7626
9733
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
Oz Au
source: company filings

EQX: Mesquite: Gold production, per qtr
Next in ascending order of importance comes
Mesquite, with a Q4 that was in line with the
reduced expectations for 2024.
Now come the more important results, beginning
with Fazenda (below left) returned the best quarter
since 4q22. However, as you can probably see Q5 is
normally its best quarter so while still certainly good,
it would have been a distinct miss if it hadn’t beaten
the other 2024 quarters.
On the other hand, RDMv (below right) was a clear and unequivocal beat at 21,321oz, the first
time in a long time it’s produced that much gold in one quarter and a sign that this previously
troubled asset is returning to form.
Next up Aurizona, the biggest issue for EQX in 2024 due to the dual pit wall collapse in early Q2
that ruined its plans. The Q4 from Aurizona shows the mine is starting to pick up the pace again
and returning to something like normal operations and we can expect cash costs to drop back
toward planned levels. However, Aurizona was until 2024 one of the backbones of EQX’s push
to reduce its notoriously high consolidated cash cost number and that’s still a work in progress,
even with the improved production in Q4.
This brings us to the two most important results out of EQX this quarter, starting with Los Filos.
The good news here is that Los Filos stepped up
and plugged the hole left by its other
underperforming mines by producing a post-Covid
record of 60,523oz. However, we need to keep in
mind the relatively high cash cost of the Mesquite
ounces, as seen in these two charts that use the
same data (one longer term, one with just the last eight quarters for more details in recent quarters.
For sure gold at U$2,600/oz and above helps the
cause at Los Filos no end and makes these ounces
29
05071
51543
35944
74472
50461
47312 05042 32952 52022
70671 32251 52171
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
Oz Au
source: company filings
Fazenda: Gold production, per qtr
14741 26331 43271 40302 58651 97451 30551 80771 20441 87141 08241 02591
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000 10000 8000
6000 4000
2000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
Oz Au EQX RDM: Gold production, per qtr
source: company filings, IKN ests
0617 6856 12301 1708 2436
15921 72361 49961
23901 57601
27431 12312
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000 10000 8000
6000 4000
2000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
Oz Au
source: company filings
EQX Aurizona: Gold production, per qtr
63922 41991 90752 01833 00852 73582 58123 40143 75832 9036 18171 37242
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000 15000
10000
5000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
Oz Au EQX Aurizona: Cash costs
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500 1000
500
0
source: company filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$/oz
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
EQX Los Filos: Gold production, per qtr
65883 34713 12132 30004 47593 13873 55493 01224 55932 03473
26484
32506
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
Oz Au
source: company filings

clearly profitable, but they’re not going to help the consolidated AISC much when we get to see
the financials next month.
EQX Los Filos: Cash costs
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Finally, we arrive at Greenstone and the implied Q4 of just over 53k oz Au which was…okay.
But it wasn’t a great number compared to AQ3 and the logical ramping of this new mine and as
noted above, the 2024 production total only just managed to come in at guidance which was
revised half way through Q4. Personally, I’d penciled
in 60,000 oz from Greenstone this quarter to err on
the cautious side (it could have been 70k oz and still
landed inside guidance) but even that turned out to
be a little optimistic.
Of course, much depends on what EQX tells us
when the Q4 and YE financials are filed, but the
implication of a slightly-but-not-really-bad Q4 is of a
new mine that’s still experiencing teething troubles.
That’s normal of course, but are they going to drag
into 2025 (where EQX still has preliminary guidance
for Greenstone at 400k oz)? The other implication of
a glitchy Q4 is again costs and while Greenstone is set to drop consolidated costs significantly
(it’s one of the reasons I bought EQX in May 2023 (only to give the trade up in May last year).
Summing up so far, the way in which Greenstone came in slightly under (our admittedly loose)
expectations but EQX made up its quarter with a big beat out of Los Filos suggests that costs
may be higher than some expect. We shouldn’t lose sight of the way EQX missed its original
2024 guidance by quite a wide margin either, as the 2025 forecast (particularly for Greenstone)
is likely to be the centre of attention. The other subject broached in last week’s NR was the
company’s financial position with a particular focus on what matters most, i.e. the balance
sheet. Here’s what they told us:
Equinox Gold ended the year with approximately $240 million in cash and equivalents and $105
million available to draw on its revolving credit facility, plus another $100 million undrawn accordion
feature. During the fourth quarter the Company reduced its debt by $180 million with the payment
of the final $40 million due to Orion Mine Finance for the purchase of its 40% interest in
Greenstone and with the conversion to equity by the holders of $140 million in convertible notes.
Isolated in a paragraph like that, the numbers look big and positive, with debt pay downs good
news for the EQX story. But sorry and all that, in context with the evolution of the EQX balance
sheet it’s not that much money:
30
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$/oz EQX Los Filos: Cash costs
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
4451 6961 1071
2802 8702 4242 4722 3512
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400 1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$/oz
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
Oz Au EQX: Greenstone gold production, per qtr
60000
50000
40000
30000
53015
20000 42448
10000 16247
0
1q24 2q24 3q24 4q24est
source: company filings
EQX: Assets
96.096
1.0702 9.9702 7002 4.7202 3.0602
1.2782 7.5092 1.4082 8.4882 3.5103 2.2903 3.1023 6.9613 3.2923 7.0833 4.6153 5.0853
4.2795 9.0116 0016
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$m EQX: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
4000
fixed 3600
other current
cash & eq 3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
400
0
source: EQX filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings

We’ll find out how far out those IKN house guesstimates for Q4 are next month, but they fit
with the new information given to us last week and won’t be a million miles away. As for cash
and currents, the U$240m noted in the NR means there’s an improvement and with undrawn
facilities at hand, EQX is liquid and in good shape even if Greenstone remains on the glitchy
side for a couple of quarters (it wouldn’t be good news for the share price, but it wouldn’t pose
an existential threat). However, our model still forecasts working capital to be breakeven-or-so
(in fact, the best guess at this point is for a slight negative). That needs to improve in 2025 and
should do so as long as Greenstone gets into gear.
EQX: Current assets per qtr
1200
1100
1000 900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
It’s also worth noting that in rough terms, the combo of the cash difference and the $40m
repayment implies EQX produced at an all-in margin of just over U$500/oz in Q4, that sounds in
line with our guesses on costs remaining stubbornly high (and the company really benefiting
from the gold price improvement).
The bottom line: A lot is going to depend on a couple of key factors when EQX reports its 4q24
next month, those are 1) its cost profile for Q4 and 2) its guidance for 2025. The way in which
the production numbers were bought up by an exuberant crowd last week suggests the market
now assumes pur good news, with a Greenstone that delivers its 400k oz this year and an EQX
that finally turned strongly profitable last quarter after a long wait. However, this desk has its
doubt and advises readers to hold fire on EQX until we know more. There are enough clues in
the brief NR last week to suggest the company still has work on its hands at its brand new
flagship asset and with its other mines remaining high cash cost, margins might not be as many
expect just yet. This isn’t a note panning EQX (again, done too many of those), nor is a short
call on the stock, it’s more a “be careful, wait and see, nothing wrong in remaining neutral a
while longer until we know more”.
Conclusion
That’s all for IKN817, we close with bullet points:
 A 26 pages, it’s long one this week Between us, it’s been good to have something to
fixate upon this week Though to be fair, writing some issues can fell like pulling teeth,
while others feel as though they write themselves. This one is in the latter category.
 One reason for that is Salazar Resources, because more I look at the set up around
SRL.v today the more I like it. It’s one of those stocks which has its stars coming into
alignment at the right time and it’s been a great personal help to get it all organized
and down on (virtual) paper for others to see, it’s helped crystallize the opportunity in
my own brain. I may buy more.
 Very happy with the way copper has started the year and expecting more from the
world’s most important industrial metal (for trading purposes at least, don’t tell iron ore
I said that). The ASCU trade has the look of happy timing about it, as does the new Ero
Copper. If only Libero can join in for a week or two.
31
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
EQX: Working Capital per qtr
800
other current 700
cash & eq 600 500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/schedule-for-week-of-january-12-2024.html
(2) https://salazarresources.com/projects/100-salazar-owned/overview/
(3) https://salazarresources.com/investors/regulatory-news/salazar-resources-announces-purchase-of-ecuadorian-
exploration-properties-from-silvercorp-metals-inc/
(4) https://salazarresources.com/investors/regulatory-news/salazar-resources-announces-private-placement-2024-12-
24/
(5) https://silvercorpmetals.com/el-domo-curipamba-project-fully-permitted-to-start-construction/
(6) https://x.com/RecNaturalesEC/status/1826410421248487663
(7) https://silvercorpmetals.com/silvercorp-reports-on-el-domo-project-development-progress-and-awarding-the-first-
construction-contract/
(8) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-announces-c-19.9-million-strategic-private-placement-
with-hudbay/
(9) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-buys-back-1.0-of-the-bronco-creek-exploration-royalty/
(10) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16rorY_6-U4
(11) https://youtu.be/EntMmkXmfWw?si=9Nm5JAvh4TviprXX
(12) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2025/barrick-update-on-loulo-gounkoto-operations-in-
mali/default.aspx
(13) https://eldemocrata.do/terror-y-panico-en-cotui-tras-agresiones-de-la-barrick-gold/
(14) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pan-global-advances-escacena-and-carmenes-projects-in-spain-
during-successful-2024-program-302346514.html
(15) https://liberocopper.com/_resources/news/nr-20250106.pdf
(16) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-hits-highest-in-nearly-a-month-on-china-demand-comex-premium-
holds/
(17) https://faradaycopper.com/news-releases/faraday-copper-intersects-40.06-metres-at-0.78-copper-within-109.42-
metres-at-0.41-copper-at-the-boomerang-breccia-and-expands/
(18) https://faradaycopper.com/news-releases/faraday-copper-announces-pea-for-copper-creek-with-5420/
(19) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/236406/Kobrea-Commences-Exploration-at-Western-Malarge-Copper-
Projects-Mendoza-Province-Argentina
(20) https://www.pampametals.com/news/2025/ampaetalsrillsorniteichopperineralizationand20250110043003.html
(21) https://www.sandstormgold.com/sandstorm-gold-royalties-announces-2024-sales-and-revenue-financial-results-to-
be-released-february-18/
(22) https://newgold.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/NEW-GOLD-DELIVERS-HIGHEST-PRODUCTION-
QUARTER-OF-2024/default.aspx
(23) https://electrumdiscovery.com/electrum-discovery-corp-selected-for-bhp-xplors-2025-accelerator-program/
32

(24) https://www.sitioandino.com.ar/politica/milei-aprobo-la-primera-inversion-traves-del-rigi-que-sera-mendoza-
n5691347
(25) https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-
downgrades-for-january-9/
(26) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-reports-record-quarterly-and-annual-gold-productionproduced-
213960-ounces-of-gold-in-q4-2024-and-621870-ounces-of-gold-for-full-year-2024/
(27) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-extends-fazenda-mine-life-by-seven-years-with-updated-mineral-
reserve-and-mineral-resource-estimate/
(28) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-provides-operations-update-on-greenstone-gold-mine/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
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Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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