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The IKN Weekly
Week 816, January 5th 2025
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, 45 squared and more numbers of interest,
Keep dancing.
Fundamental Analysis: Ecuador is a buy.
Stocks to Follow: Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD) (ABX.to), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Pan
Global (PGZ.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Kobrea Exp (KBX.cse).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick (GOLD), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF), New
Gold (NGD), Eldorado Gold (EGO): OceanaGold (OGC.to) (OGC.ax), B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to):
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Electrum Discovery Corp (ELY.v), Mogotes Metals (MOG.v).
Regional Politics: Trump and Latin America copper mines, Venezuela next week, Peru’s
annual dose of wishful thinking, Mexico’s open pit mining ban issue will reappear soon.
Market Watching: Contango ORE (CTGO): Update on the missed bullet, Metal Energy Corp
(MERG.v): A thought or two.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Heading into the weekend the plan was to put it on the Watch List but after writing up the
Ecuador note today, I’ve decided to take the plunge immediately and buy some straight away.
I’m a buyer of Salazar Resources (SRL.v) this coming week and today’s main Fundies note
explains the macro background behind the call. We’ll do the company-specific fundamentals
next weekend.
In Today’s Edition
 The main event this weekend is an extended essay on why Ecuador offers an excellent
buying opportunity at this juncture. The upcoming Presidential election is looking good
for incumbent President Daniel Noboa and with his victory would give him a mandate to
move on his economic activation policies. Those include mining. Now is the time to buy,
before people realize how clear a favourite Noboa is and what it implies for his country’s
mining sector.
 In today’s Regional Politics section, we go back to the subject of Mexico’s tempest in a
teacup about its open pit mining ban law bill. It isn’t a serious threat to mining
companies there, but that won’t stop the naysayers from piping up when the Mexico’s
Congress re-opens the file. Be prepared.
 Also in Regional Politics, be ready for the day POTUS 47 decides to use copper in South
America as one of his political footballs.
 In Stocks to Follow and the tracking baskets (Copper, Producer, TinyCaps) we take in the
way that the positive start to the year has added value to our positions. So far the move
to deploy capital looks in good shape, the important thing now is to keep dancing.
 Other things. Too. There are always other things.
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45 squared and more numbers of interest
Here’s hoping your 2025 has got off to a good start. Meanwhile, the market data never stops
and the next significant date for the diary is this coming Friday, when along with the latest
LatAm presidential inauguration ceremony (see Regional Politics, below) we have the US BLS
Employment Report for December and as things stand this weekend (1), “…consensus is for
150,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.” Thank you, Bill
McBride.
You should know the dance by now (or at least the latest iteration of it): A weak jobs number
will rattle Main Street but get stock prices moving higher, as the market wails at the Fed and
demands deeper base rates cuts than the current assumption (two in 2025). This is what it
sounds like when doves cry. Whereas perceived strength in the US labor market will play into
the hands of hawks, they get more ammo for their argument to keep rates high in order to
pinch down on the worrisome inflation rate. That
Keep dancing
On checking the Mining Soothsayer’s Charter bylaws, it seems I have no choice but to make
confident predictions and no-lose forecasts on what will happen to a range of metals prices,
mining stocks and suchlike, so I’m going to make just one call and move on:
Keep Dancing
On surveying the mood in the metals and mining sectors via social media and contacts, I’ve
been struck by how negative it is out there despite some fairly compelling evidence to the
contrary. Step forward Exhibit A:
In the last year, gold (GLD proxy) is up over 40% and even our volatile friend silver (SLV proxy)
has managed to add over 25%. Those are very impressive numbers and even if the mining
stocks haven’t followed suit (yet) in the way you or I would have preferred, a single glance at
that chart above is enough to remind you that we are indeed in a bull market for precious
metals. However and against this, we now have a range of market players, voices and
soothsayers picking the top in gold and predicting its immediate demise.
Now, don’t get me wrong here, as it happens I am optimistic about the near-term and medium-
term future of the metals market and firmly believe the mining companies are going to be a
great place to invest money this year. At U$2.600/oz gold they are reeling in the cash, even if
their mediocre management teams fail to run their companies optimally and that type of margin
is more than enough to forgive other sins and paper over operational cracks, these stocks are
due a rally and the money they’re making now matters, it’s an obvious catalyst moment in the
making. But I’m not discounting the potential to be wrong, so if the forecasts of pessimists and
bears turn out to be true, so be it and I’ll lose money. However, if there’s one lesson I’ve
learned over the years it’s not to leave the dance floor until the music stops and gold at over
U$2,600/oz isn’t just some pleasant background elevator muzak. You see gold rolling over?
Okay, take a look at the pattern in that chart, did you think the same in early 2023? Or October
of that year? Or March 2024 as gold spluttered around the U$2,00/oz level, just before this
desk went full bull? Forecasting gold is difficult at the best of times, trying to pick its top during
a historic bull run is harder by an order of magnitude. If gold does break down we’ll hear about
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it all right but until it does, err on the side of the logical, consider that an incoming Trump
admin determined to lower tax burdens might just be good for the US and world economy, fret
less about whether Jay Powell is or isn’t going to shave a quarter point off his rates at the
perfect moment. Go with the trend, it is your friend and it’s exactly why I’m entering 2025
almost fully bought in, but I do have a little cash left to and on that subject, it’s time for today’s
main fundies note. Keep dancing.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Ecuador is a buy
Today’s main fundies section lays out the bull case for Ecuador and investment in its mining
sector. We seek to accomplished three main objectives:
 Lay out the current political situation and handicap the upcoming Presidential
election.
 Consider the most likely post-election scenario for its mining industry.
 Offer up what we believe to be the best investment options in the country’s mining
sector at present.
No time to waste, let’s get on with it and for much of its recent history we’ve labeled the
country the “Mini Basket Case”, second only to Argentina for weird and wonderful left-field
developments that confound political watchers and investors alike, but Ecuador now seems to
be following its weirder and larger cousin out of the financial wilderness and into a new period,
where becomes a valid option for risk-adjusted investment. Those that have been around The
IKN Weekly long enough may remember this desk forecasted the rise of the Argentine mining
sector long before Javier Milei won his election in 2023 and accelerated a process that had
already got off to its start. The signs were there to be read, the policies were changing for the
better and the previous Alberto Fernández administration had already improved the playing field
greatly. It took Milei and his pro-market financial reforms to make Argentina fashionable among
a wider audience (even among the miners) but companies such as Lundin Group were already
investing heavily and the change in public perception toward the mining industry was palpable.
This desk believes that Ecuador is about to get its own pivot point for mining and what’s more,
that opinion won’t be hanging in the air without evidence to back it up for very long. On
February 9th this year (little more than a month from now), the 13 million or so eligible voters
in Ecuador will go to the polls to choose their next President, for the 2025 -2029 period. As it
our normal wont on these pages, the easy way to present and frame an upcoming LatAm
election to the outside audience is via the country’s polling results and voter intention surveys
and in this case, the latest poll out last week from Ecuador pollster Comunicaliza (2) is very
much in line with everything we’ve seen on this race to date.
It was taken between December 27th and 29th, done via online interviews with 4,485 people
over the breadth of the 24 provinces of the country. Here’s the screenshot of page 13 of the
report and the headline result visual, with your author adding some English translation:
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First a couple of the minor columns, as the third placed candidate is currently Leonidas Iza,
head of the CONAIE indigenous pressure group and this time around, the candidate put forward
by its party political arm Pachakutik (MUPP alliance). At just 2.5% of voter intention he’s a mile
behind the frontrunners, but even he is plenty ahead of all others, the 4th is on 1.1%. Then
please take a moment to consider the two columns on the far right, as 8.9% say they’ll spoil
their ballot or “vote in white” is at 8.9%, while the don’t knows are at 17.8%. Putting all that
together, we can expect at least one of the Also-Ran candidates to come out of the pack and
improve on their current tiny voter intention. Iza of CONAIE is one of the few figures recognized
at a national level and likely to be one of those to benefit for “none of above” type protest
voting as the campaign gets into top gear. We also note that these online-only surveys are less
likely to capture the intentions of indigenous populations where Iza holds more support. After
him, any of the others could make a bit of a run and with Don’t Knows still relatively high, there
is dry powder for any of the minor candidate to draw upon. The only surprise would be seeing
no surprises.
Now for the main reason to feature the above visual: Yes, this is a two-horse race:
 Incumbent President Daniel Noboa of the Acción Democrática Nacional
(ADN) party (no translation required) has 32.9% of current voter intention, up
0.3% from the last Comunicaliza survey. He is right wing, investor friendly and
the international community would welcome his victory
 Main challenger Luisa González of the Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana
(RC) party (Citizen’s Revolution Movement) has 29.3% of current voter
intention, down 0.6% from the last Comunicaliza survey. She is left of centre
(as is her party) and while also reasonably investor-friendly, an RC victory
would be viewed as negative by the international business and investment
community.
This allows us to make a simple statement: If Noboa wins re-election, the market will like the
news. González, not so much.
These were the two candidates that made the run-off in the last election in August 2023. Back
then, the first round went 33.61% González versus 23.47% Noboa. Subsequently Noboa
reversed positions and won the second-round run-off
in October by 51.83% to 48.17%, becoming
President. This time around Noboa holds a slight lead
on González as we enter into Round One and even
though Ecuador polls are not the most accurate in the
world, we can assume at this stage that neither
candidate will get the required votes to win outright in
Round One and those two are going to give us a
repeat performance of what happened in 2023, i.e.
ballotage. And while we’re polling polls and stuff, this
screenshot (right) is of the Polymarket page (3) this
weekend for the Ecuador election outcome (NB: Who
becomes next President, not merely the Round One
result) and it puts Daniel Noboa in an approximate 2-
to-1 lead over Luisa González. Please note it’s not a
very big market at the moment, with less than a million laid in total to date and of that, there
are fair chunks for a couple of the no-hopers (no idea why), so take those odds with a pinch of
salt (in fact, we’ll come back to them in a moment).
As for the hot button issues for this election, there are basically three and the candidates have
to manage all of them to convince the public to give them their vote. We’ll consider each from
the stance of incumbent President and candidate Daniel Noboa, with the González position the
natural foil:
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1) Crime: Homicide rates have shot up over the last few years, starting in the Correa era and
climbing through the presidencies of Lenin Moreno and Guillermo Lasso as narco gang warfare
has arrived in the country. Ecuador has become an exit port of choice for South America’s
narcotraffickers, even though the country produces negligle amounts of coca and cocaine itself,
with Colombian, Venezuelan a Peruvian gangs moving in and fighting for territory. Since Noboa
arrived the murders and violence haven’t climbed any further but at a 2023 homicide rate of 57
per 100,000, it’s still the highest in Latin America these days.
In response, President Noboa declared a “war on terrorism” and a State of Emergency in many
regions of the country which continues to this day. The emergency laws have allowed Ecuador
military to be deployed on the streets and while it hasn’t resulted in a big drop in crime, it has
helped and specifically in some of the hottest zones. However, crime and security remains a
major policy battle and his opposition is doing its best to paint the current President as soft on
crime. Of course, he’s doing everything to project the exact opposite image and one polemic
event that we must cover is that of Jorge Glas, the (undoubtedly corrupt) ex-Vice President in
the Rafael Correa years who was holed up in the Mexican embassy in order to avoid re-capture
and a return to prison last year. In a major international incident, Noboa decided to trample on
international diplomacy protocol, his troops raided the Mexican embassy, arrested Glas and
threw him into an Ecuador prison cell (where he remains and bizarrely today, he was evacuated
to another prison facility when, according to his lawyer, an attempt was made on his life). This
caused howls among the international community and among the pro-Correa opposition, but if
truth be known he won plenty of quiet support in the country for this audacious move. It has
helped his “tough on crime” image among the rank and file and he’ll use that to the full in the
weeks leading up to the Round One and Round Two elections.
He’s also keen on playing up the “We Are The Change” message, for example this very
weekend while on the early campaign trail, Noboa said his “…government and the country were
at war, not only against narcotraffickers but also against the past…the same groups that have
controlled the political scene for 20 years and now wanted to stop change from taking place at
all costs” (4), a thinly veined allusion to Luisa González’s RC party (leader Rafael Correa) and
the connections it allegedly has with the narco groups. He predicted that “attacks against his
government would intensify in the days leading up to February 9th and that’s not idle talk in a
country that saw one of its leading candidates for the 2023 election assassinated while on the
campaign trail.
2) Economy: Somewhat hamstrung by having the US Dollar as its official currency, a high
sovereign debt load and a chronic lack of reserves, Ecuador’s sluggish economic growth is a
perennial problem and not just one of the last few
years, as this ten-year chart shows. It’s easy to see
the Covid event and the financial reaction, but since
then we’re back at inertia.
This is a weak point for Noboa, but he does have
three reasonable responses. Firstly, things may not be
good but they weren’t under (Luisa González’s
mentors) Rafael Correa or Lenin Moreno, either.
Secondly, he’s only has a year and a half to enact his
policies and semi-related thirdly, his campaign has
been heavy on the “it takes time to make the deep
changes required” messaging in this campaign. As an example, he’s been pushing hard on Free
Trade Agreements, with Ecuador’s FTA with China coming into effect in May 2024 and
negotiations with Canada now advanced to near-completion.
Noboa’s main issue is that in his 2023 he played a left-ish wing populist role and talked up
social security payments and government help for the poor. Since entering office he’s shown his
true colours of orthodox capitalist right winger (though he’s more centre-right, now hard right)
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and his reform package will need time to work. Meanwhile, González and the left-leaning RC
party will be able to use more populist promises, handout offers etc.
3) Energy: The second half of 2024 in Ecuador was marked more than anything else by its
large-scale energy shortage, with rolling blackouts across the country of as much as 18 hours
per day during the worst period. The country is highly dependent on its hydroelectricity
infrastructure so, when the rains didn’t arrive as usual, rivers that normally supply the dams
were reduced the a trickle and many of the biggest power generators went offline. This has
happened on President Noboa’s watch but energy policy doesn’t spring up overnight and the
current government pushing back on any blame-game tactics by pointing the finger at the
people who started it all (mostly the Rafael Correa people, Noboa knows who the main
opponent is). He ahs a point of course, but the public’s patience wore thin after a while and the
blackouts were starting to negatively affect his popularity ratings in Q4 before 1) Noboa
managed to strike a deal with neighbour Colombia to import energy and 2) the rains finally
arrived, which has slowly allowed full power supply to come back. So just before Christmas, the
Noboa government declared the energy crisis as over and though there have been some
glitches since then, so far at least the blackouts have stayed away. This is good news for the
incumbent and comes in the nick of time.
As for mining: Summing up the campaign field, there are of course a million other issues and
nuances to each one, it’s impossible to sum up a national politics stance or election under three
general headings. Just as one example, we haven’t even touched on the long-term spat
between Noboa and his (now ex) Vice-President and how he has now replaced her as Veep with
one of his cabinet ministers (and how the ex-Veep refuses to acknowledge she has been
dumped…all classic LatAm crazypolitik stuff). However, as this publication is all about mining
and we’re going to suggest stocks to trade this political season in Ecuador, we do at least have
to cover candidates’ attitudes toward our sector and according to the campaign manifestos (5):
 Luisa González: She states a pro-mining position and proposes regulating mining to
become a sustainable industry with a priority of respect to the environment and local
communities. She vows to combat illegal mining activities (currently another separate hot
topic in the country and often connected to narcotrafficking groups and that State revenue
from mining will be targeted at social and infrastructure projects that benefit the local
communities around mines.
 Daniel Noboa: He states a pro-mining position and proposes regulating mining to become a
sustainable industry with a priority of respect to the environment and local communities.
She vows to combat illegal mining activities (currently another separate hot topic in the
country and often connected to narcotrafficking groups and that State revenue from mining
will be targeted at social and infrastructure projects that benefit the local communities
around mines.
Yes, you read those correctly, as within a phrase or two the frontrunners for this election are
pushing identical mining policies. The difference, therefore, isn’t in the ostensible politics but
the perception of the candidates and as far as the outside world is concerned, this is a straight
Left vs Right showdown.
A call on the election: Mining covered, we return our focus to the big picture and with the
three main issues of crime, economy and energy covered, it’s time to pick a winner and
fortunately, that’s going to be easy:
Daniel Noboa will win this election
Separated, bold typed, underlined. Reasons:
 Noboa has been a reasonably good President in his year and a half in office. He is orthodox
right wing and from a rich family, that rubs a lot of the lower income strata up the wrong
way, but he is young, personable eloquent and has grown into his leadership role. He’s also
shown himself to be good at politics, first shown when he came out the pack in the 2023
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election thanks to a very smart campaign to take second place and the coveted run-off
spot against the Correa candidate.
 His government has been…okay. Detractors can list dozens of complaints but, on the
whole, the Noboa executive and ministerial team has done a reasonable job, they’ve even
managed to avoid getting stuck with the blame for the energy crisis. We cannot call the
last 18 months a revolution in the country in the way Bukele has changed El Salvador or
Milei has changed Argentina, but he and his people haven’t screwed anything up badly and
that alone is a clear improvement over the stupidities that went on under Moreno and
Lasso.
 González still suffers from the clear “Correa Anti-Vote”. Rafael Correa and his RC party are
a similar deal to that of other populists with hardcore loyal followings, e.g. the Fujimoristas
in Peru. RC enjoys the strongly loyal support of around 30% of the population, but most of
the other 70% are Never Correa. This is what stopped Arauz against Lasso and it’s why in
2023 she could only add 15% to her first round total while Noboa added 28% to his (and
won). Too many people actively despise Correa and his party (for corruption and for bad
policies), that plays into Noboa’s hands.
 Noboa is now a known quantity. After grabbing second place in the 2023 first round, he
won out in round two because he was the only alternative to letting Correa back into
power. He was an unknown quantity and a political newcomer, but after a year and a half
in office he’s known to the country. On this score, he doesn’t have to be everybody’s cup of
tea, instead he simply benefits from the “Better the devil you know” vote.
 The incumbent advantage. Though you may not have noticed in the recent USA election,
the incumbent government holds significant advantages in any election. They get reach,
financial firepower and media channels on their side naturally and in this specific case, the
largely right-leaning TV and newspapers in Ecuador will not have to fake their preferences,
they will indeed want Noboa to win again.
 South America is swinging to the right. The regional barometer is not to be underestimated
and with even Lula’s position now in doubt, the clear high water mark for the left in South
America is in. Ecuador’s Noboa will receive support from Milei in Argentina, while González
will try hard to avoid too much love from her natural ally Petro in Colombia as his
unpopular government moves into its final year of office. Both Colombia and Chile will elect
their next leader from the political left and that leaves countries such as Bolivia and
Venezuela (and once again, Noboa will do his best to hitch the RC party to Evo Morales and
Nicolás Maduro, the optics are now very poor).
Overall, the main points in Noboa’s favour is the combo of “Good Leader” (South America likes
its Heads of State to be charismatic and personable), smart political operator and perhaps most
importantly, the anti-vote in Ecuador that puts a hard ceiling on the Rafael Correa comeback
story. Add in the regional right shift and a country that will be willing to let this known quantity
have more than a year and a half to enact (what he insists is) his radical change policies to
improve the country’s economy and crime situation and this election is reasonably easy to call.
If you talk with Ecuador political watchers (and I have), they’ll go into “The Quito Question”
that hangs over Noboa and posit that he has lost adherents due to crossed messages and
policies that have at times conflicted with the agenda he set out in 2023 and that’s fair enough,
but there’s more than a little “forest for the trees” in their analysis. He doesn’t need to be
loved, or even liked by the majority of Ecuadorians to win the upcoming election, all he needs
to do is be the valid alternative to Rafael Correa’s dauphine in the second round run-off, be the
“least worst” candidate and that he most certainly is.
Of course, this is South America and anything can happen but when considering the current
Polymarket odds (above), I’d even recommend that wager as a solid risk/return alternative. I’d
handicap this race as 90% Noboa, 10% González over the two legs. Most polls aren’t looking
past February 9th at the moment but when they do they’ll also realize the Correa Antivote will
make the difference in Round Two. And that’s what really matters.
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Ideas on how to play the Ecuador opportunity: Therefore the call is to buy Ecuador
exposure now, but more to the point to buy mining exposure. This is important, because to
date Noboa has received a lukewarm reception to his clearly pro-mining position and plenty of
pushback from anti-mining activists, as well as communities in and around the more polemic
projects. While mining will be only one of his policy points, a second victory (in the April run-
off) will give him enough mandate to impose his agenda more aggressively and with more
public support. It’s not going to work in all areas, for example we should still steer well clear of
the worst projects for CSR optics such as Llurimagua (Codelco) Loma Larga (Dundee) or
Warintza (Solaris), but those projects with reasonable community support (let’s say 60/40 or
70/30 in favour of development) will receive a boost and are more likely to get through their
permitting track once their leader has reaffirmed that his manifesto is the one Ecuador has
approved. Mining is not and will never be an an “easy sell” in Ecuador and any investment has
to be carefully investigated first, but a Noboa victory this year will make it an “easier sell” as the
government and the pro-mining brigade will get the social support they need to make the
permitting track easier. Not easy, just easier.
That should be enough to tip the balance in some of the most interesting projects and
investment opportunities out there. Again, we avoid the most difficult social and community
cases (Loma Larga, Warintza) and aim for the path of least resistance but that’s enough, we
pick our fights. A speculation or investment in these names today, before the world works out
that Noboa is hot favourite to be re-elected and that will greatly help mining’s permitting track
in the next five year, makes a lot of sense and gives all-important asymmetric reward over risk.
We’re also avoiding stocks such as Lundin Gold (LUG.to), as although Fruta del Norte is a
massive success story and undoubtedly a star turn in the Ecuador mining scene, there’s no
speculative value left in the stock at this stage (and we may see it under-perform if, as we
suspect, LUG goes on the acquisition trail). We’re also avoiding Silvercorp (SVM) even though
its Curipamba-El Domo project is one that will surely benefit from improved social and
permitting backing on a national level under a Noboa second term. SVM is a larger entity with
fingers in more pies than Ecuador (e.g. Chinese silver mining) and while that may suit your
portfolio, it’s not the target here. We want mining stocks that will most benefit from a Noboa
win and a most conducive backdrop for social acceptance and permitting, that means
companies with all or most of their skin in the Ecuador game.
After considering those and more, I’ve come up with three (or perhaps four if you’re more risk
tolerant than I) possible vehicles to play the upcoming rally in Ecuadsor mining stocks on the
back of the Noboa victory. Here they are: with a 12 month price chart and some basic
background information:
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): This addition to the 2025 Copper Basket is there exactly
because I want to monitor its progress in a post-election Noboa world. The aforementioned
Free trade Agreement with China plays into its
hands and once the election is out the way and any
potential buyer has a clear idea of the politics for
the next five years, this company should be ready to
put in a rally. With just over three billion (with a B)
shares outstanding, this weekend’s 7.06p share
price at its main UK listing gives the company a
market cap of GBP211.9m (C$405.15m) and that’s
plenty of equity, but the price is a big one and given
the right buying interest it could double quickly
(even triple).
Lumina Gold (LUM.v): A Ross Beaty company
(Beaty has had a long-standing interest and exposure to Ecuador, so far it’s cost him a lot of
money), LUM has made progress at its Cangrejos (Crabs) gold project in the South of the
country and along with coming to working agreements with local artisanal miners, has recently
announced its State burden agreement with the State. Backed by big names such as Wheaton
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(WPM), Cangrejos is an obvious project to benefit from any pro-mining mandate gained by
Noboa and is ready to receive its final permits, get funded and go into construction. At 417.2m
shares out and a price of C$0.48 this weekend, its
market cap is just over C$200m and that’s not
exactly cheap when there’s G&A/development
capital to raise even before the main project
financing package is put together. Likeable enough
to include in this list because a Noboa victory will
help it re-rate.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): This is my idea of
the best risk/reward speculation in Ecuador today.
SRL is the company getting a free ride to production
on 25% of Curimining, the local subsidiary owned
and operated by Silvercorp (SVM) currently building
out the Curipamba/El Domo mine in the centre of the country. Even without the Noboa
mandate, this project has got over it stiff local anti-mining opposition, by getting the pro-mining
locals around it organized and passing its prior
consultancy hearings. Once Noboa is installed with
his full five year mandate, nothing will stop this
mine from being completed and opening.
SRL is an obvious buyout candidate, it makes all the
sense in the world for SVM to consolidate its
ownership and the time to do that is before the
mine is completed (the free ride to production
makes that clear). To that end, SRL has recently
completed a deal with SVM to purchase 100% of a
couple of Greenfield sites they also partly owned
together, simplifying the two companies’ ownership
structures and giving SRL spinco options on the day SVM moves to buy its 25% of Curipamba.
With a pro-forma 248.9m shares out (there’s a 25m placement currently under way, priced at
7c) SRL has a market cap of C$17.4m, small enough for SVM to swallow even if they have to
pay double.
Atico Mining (ATY.v): This is a higher risk CSR idea and not one I’d go for myself, it sits at
the very limit of the risk I’d be prepared to take
after a Noboa victory. It’s also less directly exposed
to Ecuador, as to date its main asset is the El Roble
operating mine in Colombia. However, its La Plata
project in Ecuador, although controversial and
location of protests and sometimes violence
between marchers and the forces of order, has
recently cleared on of the main regulatory hurdles in
Ecuador by completing its social consultancy phase
and handing in the required documents to the
government of Ecuador. This, in theory at least, will
allow the government to award its EIA permit and if
that happens, the protests from anti-mining locals
won’t go away but we can expect the share price to go up. With 121.3m shares out and a price
this weekend of C$0.115, ATY has a tiny C$139.5m market cap and that provides a lot of
leverage for any moment it gets a permitting green light.
Conclusion: Of the four, my clear preference is for Salazar Resources (SRL.v) at this
time, its build-out re-rate potential is only one part of its attraction as it’s also an obvious
buyout play. A 7c stock is always going to be a very risky proposition so keep that clear in
9

mind, but there’s plenty of potential reward and at this time, SRL provides the type of leverage
I’d want for a speculation on the country.
As noted in today’s intro, up to this weekend my plan was to add SRL to the Watch List as from
next weekend but on due consideration (and as I still have treasury funds available after the
big December buying spree) I’ve thought again and decided not to waste time watching.
Instead, Salazar Resources (SRL.v) will become a full member of the stocks to Follow list as
from next weekend and I will buy some share on the open market in the days to come (I will
not be taking any of the placement shares). As such, I now owe you more than this brief
outline of SRL and its attractions so expect a full write-up of the stock next weekend in IKN817.
Stocks to Follow
No point in reading too much into the first trading days of any calendar year, but it’s better to
start by going up than going down so there’s no doubt the Stocks to Follow list had a good
week. Somehow, just one of the 19 stocks on our list had a week-over-week loss, that was
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) and even then it was only a penny. Four others were unchanged
on the week (RPX.v, OCI.v, SURG.v, MIRL.cse) and that means 14 week-over-week winners, a
pleasing result. It also means we’re not listing them all, so just the best percentage winners for
your consideration starting with Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v up 35.0%) and followed by Mene
Inc (MENE.v up 19.6%), Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up 16.7%), Libero Copper (LBC.v up 15.9%)
and Aftermath Silver (AAG.v up 10.3%), though the most pleasing result of them all was the
6.3% added by Marimaca Copper (MARI.to).
We currently have 19 Stocks to Follow on our list, one short of our self-imposed maximum.
Thirteen of those are in the green (though eight are up by under 10%) and six are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.275 31.0% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.63 -21.3% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$15.53 -6.2% undervalued midcap gold
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.61 3.9% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$5.20 70.5% Quality Cu developer
Red Pine Expl RPX.v STR BUY C$0.11 8-Sep-24 C$0.12 9.1% FY25 gold exploreco spec
Libero Copper LBC.v SPEC BUY C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.365 7.4% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.135 -28.9% Cu jr, disappointing to date
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.065 8.3% top fundy value, illiquid
Barrick Gold GOLD BUY U$15.70 22-Dec-24 U$15.84 0.9% near-term Au fliptrade
Ero Copper ERO BUY C$19.37 22-Dec-24 C$19.95 3.0% near/medium term Cu fliptrade
Aftermath Silver AAG.v BUY $0.425 22-Dec-24 C$0.48 12.9% New silver trade, cheap
Surge Copper SURG.v BUY $0.11 22-Dec-24 C$0.115 4.5% bulk copper in good address
Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to BUY C$1.39 22-Dec-24 C$1.45 4.3% near-term Cu fliptrade
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.21 -30.0% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.035 75.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.275 223.5% Idaho gold drill play
10

LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.45 6-Dec-20 C$0.125 -72.2% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2025 date closed close price
none yet
2015 to 2024 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies. The post-tax loss bump came as expected
and we got some nice starting moves to the year, but there’s not much else to report so I’ve
kept it fairly brief with a few examples of the rally and a couple of extra comments on a stock
or two.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): A good example of the
post Tax Loss pop, AAG enjoyed being an “Uncle
Eric” stock and was duly pumped by Mr. Sprott on
his weekly podcast as part of his new found
(geddit?) fascination with battery-grade manganese.
His acolytes did the rest and if things go well this
week, I expect a 5-handle. Decent start to this
trade.
Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD) (ABX.to): GOLD also
reacted positively to the precious metals pop on the
first trading day of 2025, but only managed to trade above U$16 for about an hour. As far as
I’m concerned, there’s a clear bargain for those looking to position before the company gives us
its Q4 production number.
We’re going to get the Q4 production NR around the middle of this month, which will be
important for the company and its share price (of course). Down in the Producer Basket section
today I’ve listed the dates on which five covered companies gave us their Q4 production NR
numbers in 2023 and 2024, so it’s only right to do the same here. In 2023, GOLD’s Q4
production NR on January 17th and in 2024, it was January 16th. The company waited until it
reported its financials before giving annual guidance.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): This isn’t one of the juniors that’s going to run on Day One of the
year, what with its pending purchase of Sabre Gold
weighing on any speculative moves. Once that closes
we should see better things, so the penny added that
turned a 26c stock into a 27c stock on reasonable
Friday volume is as good as can be expected.
Repeat message: MAI is On Notice to deliver on at
least two fronts in January, with improved Q4
production numbers from Santana and the successful
11

closure of the Sabre Gold deal required before any hold/reduce decision is made. Watching.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): If the three-month chart of PAU has any message, it’s that
people who bought on the day of the drill result in December paid too much.
It’s a point we’ve made before, the EC-01 drill assay (6) of “…2.01 g/t Au over 288.34m from
surface including 3.07 g/t Au over 175.26m…” was indeed excellent but for those watching this
stock for a time, it was in the realms of the expected and price action since then says exactly
that. Even if the next couple of holes come in the same way, there’s no reason to spend more
than 30c if you are still on the outside looking in. Personally I’ll continue to wait.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): Not much change in the underlying liquid-ish asset value of OCI
compared to last weekend:
OCI.v: PRO FORMA Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.71 8.30 3.3
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.41 0.04 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.40 2.96 1.2
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.20 0.83 0.3
XXIX.v 39.10 0.115 4.50 1.8
MERG.v 5.125 0.04 0.21 0.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.035 0.86 0.3
subtotal 17.71 7.1
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 18.91 7.6c
At 247.714 S/O
The arb remains the same, bar a tenth or so. There are a couple of extra thoughts about the
new OCI holding, Metals Energy (MERG.v), in today’s Market Watching section below.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): EGO reacted the way we want a Tier 2 gold producer to react last
week, up nicely on the gold pop and better than the GDX average. As noted in Producer Basket
below, the next likely catalyst is the 4q24 production NR which, if recent history is our guide,
should turn up the week after next.
12

Pan Global (PGZ.v): A nice price pop, PGZ pining out
of the end of the Tax Loss Selling season and adding
35% in one shot but there was a lack of volume in the
move so it’s up for debate whether it sticks in the week
to come. Hope so and I’m convinced PGZ is wildly
under-priced, but that doesn’t mean it has to start
moving up on my exact and preferred timeline.
The Copper Basket
After one week of 2025, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 1.31% to level stakes:
Shares out
company ticker price 1/1/25 (m) Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Atex Resources ATX.v 1.43 274.823 409.49 1.49 4.2%
2 SolGold SOLG.to 0.13 3001.11 405.15 0.135 3.8%
3 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 1.90 169.914 327.93 1.93 1.6%
4 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 1.65 160.903 268.71 1.67 1.2%
5 Regulus Resources REG.v 2.05 124.659 253.06 2.03 -1.0%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.47 135.524 196.51 1.45 -1.4%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.74 205.336 154.00 0.75 1.4%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 0.55 253.391 152.03 0.60 9.1%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.69 167.45 118.89 0.71 2.9%
10 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.67 151.42 101.45 0.67 0.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.63 119.833 75.49 0.63 0.0%
12 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.11 258 29.67 0.115 4.5%
13 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.315 57.05 20.82 0.365 15.9%
14 Kobrea Exploration KBX.cse 0.60 35.085 19.65 0.560 -6.7%
15 Pampa Metals PM.cse 0.16 83.164 13.72 0.165 3.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 1.31%
NB: In the above table, please note the slight alteration of 2025 initial prices compared to the
presented table in IKN815, last weekend. For all three 2025 baskets, (Copper, Producer,
TinyCaps) we have adjusted to the December 31st closing prices. In the case of The Copper
Basket the changes are minor, mostly a couple of pennies or percentage points in either
direction. The biggest adjustments to the upside were Regulus (REG.v up 6.2%) and Arizona
Sonoran (ASCU.to up 5.8%), the biggest adjustments to the downside were Pampa (PM.cse
down 8.6%) and XXIX Metal (XXIX.v down 4.4%).
The 2025 Copper Basket starts off on the front foot, with ten winners (ATX.v, SOLG.to, ALDE.v,
TMQ.to, FDY.to, BIG.v, AE.v, XXIX.v, LBC.v, PM.cse) neatly outnumbering the three losers
(REG.v, ASCU.to, KBX.cse), the two unchanged stocks completing the count (HCH.v, ECU.v).
Most of the moves were small (it’s only two
effective days of trading, after all) with both
the biggest changes being to the upside,
with Libero Copper (LBC.v up 15.9%) and
Hercules Metals (BIG.v up 9.1%) leading
the way. Put all that together and mix
thoroughly, we’re left with a basket average
of +1.31% and that’s roughly in-line with
the +1.9% that the main copper producers’
ETF, COPX, added in the first two trading
13

days of 2025. And that’s fair enough. Before moving on, a quick note that as per usual for this
time of year, we’ll wait a few weeks and get enough data before running the Copper Basket
tracking chart.
As for Copper-The-Metal, we saw price weakness as 2024 became 2025 as seen on this hourlies
chart (above). The selling looked odd and forced, what with trading so light over the New Year
session and into the first days of 2025 as the Northern bourses took the day off. What’s more,
it was backed up by the type of retro-view blather that bizwires often use when there’s
fundamental drivers and the reporters grasp at any old reason to make copy. Here’s Reuters on
Thursday morning (7), starting with this header and sub-head:
Copper hovers near 5-month low as weak demand outlook dominates
LONDON: Copper prices hovered around five-month lows as expectations of a deteriorating
demand outlook were reinforced by weak manufacturing activity around the world.
Weak manufacturing activity is detected around New Year’s Day, hoodathunkit? There’s no
waiting on the Holiday Season data, either. They go on to quote “one copper trader”…
“There is a lot of nervousness about what Trump will do when he arrives at the White House,” one
copper trader said. “Manufacturing activity and demand aren’t picking up.”
…and the tropes turn into a bit of a list with…
Surveys of purchasing managers showed manufacturing activity slowing in China and South Korea
in December while European factory activity declined at a faster rate than in November.
With all that, it was zero surprise to see copper pop back to the U$4.08/lb-or-so level it had
held all the way through the holiday season once the real trading began on Friday. Sic transit
gloria mundi, next week will give us a better signal of the health of the copper trading pit.
Time for the first check on world copper inventories in 2025, data as usual from Chile’s
Cochilco:
 World copper stocks start the year with a small addition, up a total of 4,022 metric
tonnes (mt) across the three official futures systems to close at 437,680mt.
 The SHFE again indicated we’ve found the bottom for the yearly cycle and rose by
9,002mt to close at 83,174mt. Standard for this time of year.
 The LME continued with its quiet trading and should get back to normal trade volumes
on the other side of Twelfth Night, but this weekend we report a small drop of 2,925mt
in its copper inventory, closing the week at 269,800mt.
 Comex finally saw some tonnage leaving its stores, the total dropping by 2,056mt to
finish Friday at 84,706mt.
The dedicated SHFE chart doesn’t show much for 2025, not yet anyway. We seem to have
bottomed out at the 70,864mt hit two weekends ago and that’s in the right timeframe.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11 42'dr3von
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of the new 2025 basket component stocks:

Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): Though part of the current Stocks to Follow list, for one week
only we’ll put its trade notes down here because it makes more sense today. ASCU is one of the
stocks slightly hard-done-by last week, when we moved the starting price from last weekend to
the December 31st close, because ASCU did in fact do well to move up 7c since last weekend
but made its move before the start of 2025, as seen here:
As such, this six-month chart (below right) probably gives better perspective, as it shows that
aside the interruption in August for the PEA
announcement and associated hoopla, ASCU has been
largely stuck in its current $1.40 to $1.50 range. The
pop above C$1.70 is what this stock can do when it gets
the rah-rah promo and is exactly why I bought some
when I did at the end of last year; I’m confident we’re
going to see the marketing rizz re-start, there’s every
chance of getting the same type of reaction and if/when
it does, I’ll happily sell my shares to new and eager
buyers. This one’s a near-term trade, period.
Kobrea Exp (KBX.cse): Get used to seeing regular notes on KBX in the 2025 Copper Basket
list, this is a stock I’m going to watch carefully for a potential trade but, be crystal clear, not at
any price. Even though this is a new exploreco, we only have to consider its record of fun and
games it’s already built around placements to place a yellow flag against its name. After all, it’s
not even two weeks since this happened (8):
Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - December 23, 2024) - Kobrea
Exploration Corp. (CSE: KBX) (FSE: F3I) ("Kobrea" or the "Company") announces that,
further to its news release dated December 12, 2024, the Company has completed its
non-brokered private placement of units of the Company ("Units") by issuing a total of
11,627,907 Units at a price of $0.43 per Unit for aggregate gross proceeds of
$5,000,000 (the "Private Placement").
Each Unit is comprised of one (1) common share of the Company (a "Common Share")
and one (1) Common Share purchase warrant (a "Warrant"), with each Warrant entitling
the holder thereof to purchase one (1) additional Common Share at a price of $0.55
until December 20, 2026.
With that in mind, please consider once again the 12-
month chart of KBX.cse, with a little red ink added (right).
Back in 2q24 KBX ran a $1.3m placement, with nearly a
million of that in hard dollar units at 25c, the deal coming
with a full warrant priced at 55c. When the deal closed the
stock was already trading above 50c and you can see
what happened when the placement shares came out of
escrow in August. Classic CSE fun’n’games.
That share release came just before KBX announced its
deal to enter the Western Malargüe Mining District (WMMD) and as that’s the reason to like this
company (along with the people it has attracted since then, see IKN815 last weekend for more)
I’m okay about giving it a chance. However, I’m, not daft enough to pay the current 56c or
15

anywhere close when the company has just closed a 45c placement, once again with a full
warrant at 55c, considering what the stock did the last time it had a large chunk that went free
trading. That’s why it’s a member of the Copper Basket in 2025, we’ll have time and space to
monitor its price progress compared to on-ground newsflow and market timing. If there’s a
trade at some point down the line with a good entry price, we’ll be ready.
The Producer Basket
After 1 week of 2025, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 3.21% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 37.22 1152.6 43.93 38.11 2.4%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 78.21 497.971 40.38 81.08 3.7%
3 Barrick GOLD 15.50 1748.05 27.69 15.84 2.2%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 117.59 192.119 23.52 122.41 4.1%
5 B2Gold Corp BTG 2.44 1313.11 3.37 2.57 5.3%
6 Eldorado Gold EGO 14.87 204.909 3.18 15.53 4.4%
7 New Gold NGD 2.49 790.9 2.05 2.59 4.4%
8 OceanaGold OGC.to 3.98 708.074 2.03 4.03 1.3%
9 Sandstorm SAND 5.58 296.844 1.69 5.70 2.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 8.98 148.95 1.37 9.17 2.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$, except share price of OGC (in CAD$) Port. avg 3.21%
NB: In the above table, please note the slight alteration of 2025 initial prices compared to the
presented table in IKN815, last weekend. For all three 2025 baskets, (Copper, Producer,
TinyCaps) we have adjusted to the December 31st closing prices. In the case of The Producer
Basket the changes are all minor, a couple of pennies or percentage points in either direction.
The biggest adjustments to the upside were Wesdome (WDOFF up 2.6%) and Sandstorm
(SAND up 2.0%), the biggest adjustments to the downside were Newmont (NEM down 1.6%)
and B2Gold (BTG down 1.2%).
A bright start to the year for the big precious metals producers, with the GDX benchmark up
3.21% in the first two days of 2025 trading and by luck or judgment, our Producer Basket
matched that performance to the hundredth. All ten of our new basket stocks were winners,
with the best early move made by B2Gold (BTG up 5.3%) and the smallest OceanaGold
(OGC.to up 1.3%) but the way we hit the median exactly on the GDX is all you really need to
know. Also and same as above in the Copper Basket before moving on, a note that as per usual
for this time of year, we’ll wait a few weeks and get enough data before running the 2025
Producer Basket tracking charts. They’ll appear at some point in February, most likely.
Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to): Adding a word to the note on GOLD in Stocks to Follow above,
one reason the Producer Basket works as a sector is that it keeps me honest. We’re going to be
abele to track the relative performance of my choice as a near-term trade for a sector rebound
(see Stocks to Follow, above) against its most obvious rivals, AEM, NEM and GDX, very easily
and see just how stupid I am.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF), New Gold (NGD), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to):
A decent start for these three mid-tier producers, all
responding well to the improvement in the price of
gold and doing exactly what you want a Tier 2 to do,
i.e. beat out the Tier 1 stocks and the GDX median
(chart right).
We’re entering the Q4 production NR period and while
it’s not an obligatory NR, any miner that pre-releases
its Q4 and YE production numbers offers an
16

advantage to the investor (they wait until at least mid-February for fundies new, otherwise. In
the case of these three:
 New Gold (NGD) last year pre-released its Q4 production numbers on January 9th. In
2023, it was January 10th
 Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) last year pre-released its Q4 production numbers on January
15th (also with forward guidance for the year). In 2023, it was January 17th
 Eldorado Gold (EGO) last year pre-released its Q4 production numbers on January 16th. In
2023, it was January 13th.
OceanaGold (OGC.to) (OGC.ax), B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): In the same vein, this chart
shows that while positive enough, BTG and OGC didn’t
respond as well to the initial kick as the above three
mentioned, with BTG only doing slightly better than the
GDX benchmark and OGC doing a little worse.
It’s early days, of course. As for the Q4 production NR
info…
 B2Gold last year pre-released its Q4 production
numbers on January 23rd (also with forward guidance
for the year). In 2023, it was January 18th.
 OceanaGold (OGC.to) is the odd one out, it doesn’t
pre-release any Q4 data so we have to wait for mid-
February and its financials for the information.
While here, a small office note regarding OGC on our main Producer Basket league table above
as I know $4.03 multiplied by 708.074 equals $2.85Bn (and change), not the $2.03Bn you see
up there. As OGC doesn’t have an active OTC ticker (compared to, let’s say, WDO and WDOFF),
we’re leaving its share price quote in Canadian Dollars for the year. However, when it comes to
the league table of market caps we level the playing field by converting into US Dollars and that
means the market cap above is marked at U$2.03Bn. It also means NGD has moved up a rung
since we announced the new list last weekend.
The TinyCaps List
After 1 week of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 4.19% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/25 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Barksdale Res BRO.v 0.17 133.87 24.77 0.185 8.8%
Condor Res CN.v 0.145 141.155 21.17 0.15 3.4%
Electrum Disc ELY.v 0.13 98.99 14.35 0.145 11.5%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.145 174.5 25.30 0.145 0.0%
Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.39 75.92 26.57 0.35 -10.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.08 96.476 9.17 0.095 18.8%
Mogotes Metals MOG.v 0.13 236.796 34.34 0.145 11.5%
Radius Gold RDU.v 0.085 107.41 8.59 0.08 -5.9%
South Star STS.v 0.55 52.64 27.90 0.53 -3.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 118.384 17.76 0.15 7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 4.19%
NB: In the above table, please note the slight alteration of 2025 initial prices compared to the
presented table in IKN815, last weekend. For all three 2025 baskets, (Copper, Producer,
TinyCaps) we have adjusted to the December 31st closing prices. In the case of The TinyCaps
List there are some larger moves, with the biggest adjustments to the upside in Radius Gold
17

(RDU.v up 30.8%), Mogotes Metals (MOG.v up 13.0%) and Endurance Gold (EDG.v up 11.5%.
Also, the 6.7% move in Kodiak (KDK.v) makes that a C$29.61m market cap, which is really
pushing the limit for market caps in this list but I’m going to allow it (it’s around U$21m…that’s
how I make my excuses). As for the biggest adjustments to the downside, they were Condor
(CN.v down 12.1%) and Barksdale (BRO.v down 5.6%).
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $25m They have to be tiny. In a couple of cases I’ve stretched the
window a little and allowed sub-U$25m market capper in, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2025. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
An upbeat start to the year for the tinycaps as well, proof positive that hope springs eternal in
our weird and wonderful sector. Six of our ten component stocks made gains compared to their
31/12/24 prices (BRO.v, CN.v, ELY.v, LMS.v, MOG.v, VAU.v) and of those, the best moves came
from Latin Metals (LMS.v up 18.8%), Electrum Discovery (ELY.v up 11.5%) and Mogotes Metals
(MOG.v up 11.5%). One stock remained unchanged (EDG.v) and that leaves three losers on the
shortened week (KDK.v, RDU.v, STS.v) with Kodiak (KDK.v down 10.3%) the only drop of real
note. And yes, to labour the point we’re going to wait a few weeks and get enough data before
running the 2025 TinyCaps List tracking charts, as well. No point in showing you a table with
one, or two, or four columns.
Electrum Discovery Corp (ELY.v): It was interesting to note the brisk trading in this, a bit of
a social media darling, as it sets up to begin drilling at its flagship Timok East copper/gold
project this quarter (and those with a memory will know what the word “Timok” managed to
return the junior world a few years back). At the moment, ELY is one of those Hot Tip stocks
that people with a good knowledge of this specialist sector are whispering out loud, which
means those people have already positioned and will be happy to drum up interest. They are
talking up an identified zone at Timok East known as
Bambino (nice name) and the last news we got from
the company in the week before Christmas (9)
detailed the IP work they’ve done and why they’re
excited to mobilize drills there. It’s worth a few
minutes of your time and consideration as the prep
work continues, as this one may see hype building
before results show.
ELY has its chance, in a good address for mineral
discovery and a company unafraid of drilling to find
out the truth. That’s a likeable combo, but I’d be wary
of chasing this price on the back of “new year vibes” before anything happens on the ground.
Mogotes Metals (MOG.v): A good start to the year for this new recruit to the TinyCaps list,
up 2.5c since IKN815 and 1.5c (+13.0%) in the two
trading days of 2025 so far. However, if we consider its
six month chart (it’s a young company and doesn’t have
12 months of life yet), there’s very little we can read
into last week’s move, aside from some enthusiasm for a
new company in a new year (chart right).
18

As noted last weekend, we’re going to give more background on basket stocks as the year rolls
out and for this one, the place to start is its December 17th NR “Vicuña Exploration Update:
Field season underway at the Filo Sur project in the prolific Vicuna Copper Gold Silver District”
(10), one of those title lines that covers perhaps 80% of the need to know. Open up the NR
and you read the comments of CEO Allen Sabet:
“Our geology teams are on the ground, and rapidly advancing our 2024/25 exploration program.
The program consists of several hundred meters of trenches, rock chip sampling and mapping at
the priority targets of Cruz del Sur, Rincon, Camino, Meseta and Filon Alunita (Figure 1). Further
new exposures at Frontera and Colorida are also being mapped and sampled.
Further updates from this program are expected in January and February 2025. The results will
be used to vector and optimise drill hole design for each of these exploration targets.
The NR continues by connecting MOG to its near neighbour Filo in at leats tow different
sections, with this minnow obviously trying to reflect some of the glory of the Lundin family’s
big winner its own way. And that’s air enough, but what we really need to know is in the above
section, it’s early days at its priority targets and there’s going to be plenty of time lag between
the activities of this current season and the moment when they’re ready to put a diamond drill
into the ground. This is a grassroots early-stage neighbour play, which doesn’t mean it cannot
rally and become a successful stock to speculative upon, instead it means you have to take it
for what it is. Given the rightmacro market circumstances, trench results can move the market
but if things go flat, the best possible NR will only attract the attention of geologists or market
nerds.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $25m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Trump and Latin America copper mines
We’re two weeks and a day away from the new Trump administration in The USA and the
myriad changes that will result from the return of Orange Man (Good/Bad). You’re going to be
bombarded with thoughts and op-eds on “What It Means For (insert author’s subject of choice)
and I freely admit it’s what you’re getting in this short note, so we’re not going overboard and
will keep it succinct and on-point as possible. To do so, I lean on James Bosworth, normally
known as “Boz”, a US correspondent on Latin America for the last 20 years who writes via his
own channel, as well as for respected places such as his weekly column in Americas Weekly and
the Latin America Daily Review. He knows his beat well, he has plenty of Beltway contacts, his
views are weighted and respected. His note last week entitled “Trump wants Latin America to
be actively anti-China” (11) covers more ground than our focus subject and is well worth a
read, I’m going to excerpt just a couple of parts. Here’s a first quote:
“…Trump’s coercion-first strategy and rhetoric towards Latin America has been more
about countering China than countering migration. His comments about Panama and
the canal were framed around China’s influence in that country. Mauricio Claver-
Carone’s comments about Peru’s Chancay port included a threat to place tariffs on all
goods that move through Chinese-controlled ports anywhere in the hemisphere. Behind
the scenes, the Trump team is looking at China’s manufacturing of autos in Brazil,
Chinese loans to Argentina and Chinese investments in critical minerals including
copper mines around the hemisphere.”
The “comments about Panama and the canal” refer to Trump’s recent assertion that some
14,000 Chinese troops are in that country, guarding (or otherwise) the canal and from that,
Trump went on one of his flights of fancy about “re-taking the canal”, causing the usual hoo-
hah. Perhaps more interesting are the comments made by Mauricio Claver-Carone, the Cuban-
American ex-President of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) and currently one of
the Trump transition team. The recently opened Chancay port in Peru was a major investment
project, wholly financed by Chinese capitals and now one of the biggest Pacific seaport outlets.
Peru made plenty of proud statements and President Dina Boluarte took President Xi of China
19

to the port for an official opening ceremony while he was in the country for the APEC Summit a
few weeks ago. Threatening US tariffs on anything going through that port with a USA
destination won’t bother China at all, but it sends a clear message to Peru and its neighbours
(e.g. Chile, its own ports currently fretting about losing business to Chancay).
However, it’s the last sentence of the above quote that most interests us (of course), because
Boz is well connected and that’s the first time I’ve seen in print a jungledrum messaage that’s
been doing to rounds quietly in LatAm circles since November. To put it as simply as possible,
what happens if Trump takes a leaf out of Justin Trudeau’s book (seriously) and puts trading
restrictions on China regarding critical metals? We’ve already seen Solaris Resources (SLS.to)
(SLSR) run to Zug in order to sell its Warintza project to China, the tariffs policy threatened by
Trump and the newly aggressive stance The USA is set to take against China will certainly
include its growing influence in LatAm. Some regional countries are beyond The USA’s reach
(for the time being) such as Bolivia and Venezuela, others are natural allies (e.g. Argentina, El
Salvador), it’s the ones in between that matter and they are set to become key political battles.
First and foremost that’s Mexico (and the Boz column focuses largely on that country), but
others such as Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador are likely to come under pressure in order to move
them away from Chinese influence. Here’s a second quote from the Boz note:
While their responses may be technically accurate, in this case, Latin America is not
reading the mood correctly in Washington. Trump and his team (and to some extent,
this is a bipartisan mood in Washington) don’t want Latin America to deny that China is
present. They want Latin America to acknowledge China’s growing role, openly discuss
the problems with China, and then explain what Latin American countries are doing to
fight back. They want Latin America to choose a side in the US vs China battle, not
underplay the role of China in the hemisphere. Trump wants them to take an active
stance against China.
When it comes to the mining sector, copper the single most important battleground. There’s no
secret that China is most interested in securing copper supply, we know its unique dependence
on its importing of that metal and we also know the Andean cordillera is one of the world’s
happiest hunting grounds for copper. Trump isn’t into carrot-like incentives, we’re going to get
the stick wielded and the same “you’re either with us or against us” message for the continent
on many fronts, political and financial and today, copper sits as the crossroads. It’s politically
sensitive, it’s attracting billions in investment into LatAm (from all corners), it’s a key ingredient
in the way our leaders see the future, and all this is not lost on China, it’s no coincidence to see
its investment dollars landing in Ecuador and Peru, rather than Argentina and Chile.
We’ve been through a full Trump admin, plus all the noise and headlines of a 2024 election
campaign for the ages, so we all know that part of the classic Trump strategy on policy is to say
dramatic and outlandish things, often based on a kernel of truth, then carefully roll back the
initial statement in order to land on the policy move he/they want to achieve. A recent example
of that is the “14,000 Chinese troops controlling Panama” spiel, it’s some sort of shot across the
bows of the Mulino government and we’ll find out soon what the real plan is. Therefore,
chances are high that at some point in 2025, the Trump admin is going to level its crosshairs on
the wonderful world of LatAm domiciled copper projects and say something that will cause
consternation. And that means us, so get ready for the “unexpected”.
Venezuela next week
“It’s not about oil! It’s about naked aggression!”
(George HW Bush, 1991)
This coming Friday, January 10th, sees the inauguration of the next Presidential period in
Venezuela. That means current President Nicolás Maduro hands on to…yes, Nicolás Maduro in a
ceremony that is bound to create headlines after the obviously fixed and an illegitimate election
of last year. We’re not going into the controversy, or the psyops campaign run by Maduro, or
the speculation on which countries will be present at the ceremony (and who from which
countries (12)) the recent claims and moves of Edmundo González Urruti, the man who won
the election (as a replacement for the woman who should be the next President if Venezuela
were even a semblance of a democracy, María Corina Machado). Instead we’ll note this (13):
20

Venezuela: Crude oil exports to USA
21
04 85
901 041 581 621 351 031 351 661 741 461 951 241 081
312 142 622 113 362 012 592
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
32'naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 42'naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco
000s bbl/d
source: EIA
If you want to know why The USA has been very angry about Venezuela and thinks what is
happening is very bad and the election was very bad and Maduro is a very naughty boy… but
has done nothing to even attempt to restore democracy to Maduro’s Venezuela, consider the
average of 270,000 barrels of crude Venezuela has exported to The USA per day in the period
since the election. That’s around 33.2m barrels and at, let’s say, an average U$40/bbl margin
for the sellers it’s U$1.3Bn and an awful lot of money.
It will be interesting to see what stance the Trump admin takes. I honestly have no clue about
that, either messaging or timing, but I know when a dictatorship is being propped up.
Peru’s annual dose of wishful thinking
At the start of every year, there are two things you can bank on out of the government of Peru:
 A GDP forecast that overestimates reality
 A rosy forecast for mining investment that fails to happen
This year, the dismal Boluarte government has even given 2025 the official moniker of “Year of
Recuperation and Consolidation of the Peruvian Economy” (“Año de la recuperación y
consolidación de la economía peruana”), which will appear as a letterhead on all government
publications, even though the forecast of sub-3% GDP growth means even more of its relatively
young average population age go under the poverty line in 2025.
When it comes to mining, the Ministry of Energy and Mining (MINEM) has lipsticked the pig by
claiming (14) that mining projects that add up to a cool U$4.6Bn will get off the ground this
year, part of a project set worth U$8Bn due to happen in 2025 and 2026. It’s total BS and
what’s more, the deliberate deception isn’t confined to the professional liars in government. The
Institute of Mining Engineers of Peru (IIMP) was on hand to continue the balderdash, with IIMP
president Gustavo De Vinatea on hand to point at four of the biggest projects, Corani,
Chalcobamba Phase 1, Tia Maria and Yanacocha Sulfides and say (15) (quote translated),
“These four projects that were postponed in 2024, I believe they will begin development in
2025 and if so, will be excellent news for the sector.”
But as they say in Spanish, “The reality is other.” Of the four, Chalcobamba Phase 1, the
current main growth project at MMG’s massive Las Bambas mine in the Apurimac region, has a
chance as long as the community (that has learned to despise Las Bambas’ presence) stays
onside. Also to be fair, one not mentioned by Señor De Vinatea in his soundbite is Zafranal, the
$1Bn-or-so copper project in Arequipa owned by Teck that should break ground this year (it
needs a couple of years before production starts). However, be clear:
 Corani does not stand a chance of happening in 2025
 Tia Maria doesn’t stand a chance of happening in 2025
 Yanacocha Sulfides doesn’t stand a chance of happening in 2025
The statements out of Peruvian mining’s great and good are 100% in character, that’s the main
thing to remember about these people. You can tell when they’re lying, their lips are moving.
Mexico’s open pit mining ban issue will reappear soon

Just because it hasn’t been mentioned, doesn’t mean it’s gone away. When mining is the
subject, one of the most misunderstood law projects of 2024 was the law project in Mexico that
wants to change the Constitution in order to ban open pit mining in Mexico and while the news
and drama on the subject has died down to nothing since Claudia Sheinbaum took over from
AMLO as President, the issue hasn’t gone away and we should expect the issue to flare up
again at some point the early 2025 (I’m guessing this quarter, it may be Q2). Here’s the need-
to-know, three points and a bottom line:
1) For the 1,000th time, at no point did Claudia Sheinbaum propose an open pit mining ban in
her political manifesto or campaign in 2024. That is misinformation and it’s important to
understand. The open pit mining ban thingy came from a congressional committee, AMLO-
controlled and hard-left ideologue. It was and still is a law project to change the country’s
Constitution, part of AMLO’s so-called “Plan C” package of law projects he put together at the
end of his presidency in order to create some sort of lasting legacy. The project passed
committee, it was supposed to be debated by the Lower House before AMLO left office but like
several of the other “Plan C” projects, it didn’t. Since Sheinbaum took over, the current
Congress has continued to work through other “Plan C” law projects, some passing unaltered,
some passed with alterations, some “ignored”. To date the open pit mining law project is in the
latter category but it will come up for debate and vote at some point, first in the lower house
and then in the Senate.
2) President Sheinbaum is from the same MORENA party as AMLO, she’s also an environmental
activist. However, she’s far more pragmatic than her predecessor and if you want a pigeonhole
she’s left-of-centre (or if you prefer, “not militant lefty”) and to make a complex subject simple,
we on the outside can consider that Congress will be a reflection of her executive policy.
MORENA holds an absolute majority for Constitutional changes in the lower house, but does not
have the required 2/3rd majority for the upper house (Senate). What’s more, any bill needs to
secure the votes of senators from pro-mining States (e.g. Sonora, Zacatecas, etc) and that’s
important, because both houses know that a law bill that blanket bans open pit mining cannot
possibly get through both houses. That’s a long way of stating a simple fact; Mexico isn’t going
to blanket ban open pit mining, not least because the bit we’re worried about is part of a larger
package for Constitutional changes in environmental laws and will be altered, even dropped, to
get the larger bill through. However, it’s going to make headlines in the period from when the
law bill is presented to the lower house and when it goes through both debates, so expect
headlines and talk on “Mexico Banning Mining” to hit the wires again (as well as the ill-informed
ranting about Commies and exhorting you to get out of Mexico while there’s still a chance).
3) Instead, what we will eventually get, either via amendments to this Constitutional law
project, via an organic law project or perhaps even by executive decree, is the Sheinbaum
policy position of allowing locals a greater say in the approval of any mining project, open pit or
otherwise, with communities getting real power of veto. That will stop controversial projects in
their tracks (e.g. anything in Chiapas, Baja California Sur, several unloved project in Veracruz,
etc) but is good news for the good companies with good projects that locals want.
Bottom line: It’s not easy to know exactly when the “Open Pit Mining Ban” issue will make it
onto the agenda of Mexico’s Congress, but it’s going to happen in 2025. How you form your
strategy around that is up to you, personally the central focus is (as ever) my main investment
in Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and on that, I’m not going to change the plan and will simply hold
through. The Congressional process is separate to that of the Mexico environmental office
SEMARNAT and that may re-start the permit approval process for mining projects in Mexico at
any moment (indeed, my “most likely” window for that has always been at the start of the new
year, where we are today) and if those permits start flowing, the good vibes should see Mexico-
exposed stocks re-rate. You may see things differently and hold back on moving on Mexico
stocks until the issue is totally resolved, or even a buy-the-dip strategy if the naysayers
managed to rattle weak hands. My only real advice on this issue is to be prepared.
22

Market Watching
Contango ORE (CTGO): Update on the missed bullet
The story so far:
 We invested in Contango ORE in July 2023 after watching a waiting for a couple of
years
 We gave up the trade in September 2024 after it had disappointed for a little too
long and changed its story once too often, booking a minor profit (see IKN800, dated
September 15th)
 The CTGO stock price dropped off a cliff at the end of November when the company
announced (16) higher than expected costs going forward, including this in the NR:
“…main factor leading to the AISC increase relates to recent weight restrictions on
the Chena Flood Plain Bridge, a bridge along the Manh Choh ore haul route…”
 We wrote about the development in “Contango ORE (CTGO) and a missed bullet” in
IKN811, dated December 1st. At U$14 that weekend, among other things we noted
that the CTGO share price “…could go under U$10 if market tides turn against it.”
 It went under U$10 (see chart below).
Which brings us up to date and the new twist to the tale, as this weekend The Alaska Beacon
has this story (17) on the amount of heavy truck traffic generated by the Manh Choh operation,
how it is upsetting locals and how those locals are now warning residents around the
company’s other projects, namely Lucky Shot and Johnson Tract, of what might happen to their
environs if CTGO adopts a similar strategy (and for what it’s worth, I know for a fact that CTGO
wants to do the same type of quasi-toll milling model with at least Lucky Shot because
company CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse told me exactly that, back in the day). Here come a
couple of excerpts from the long form piece, first a description of the main bone of contention:
To get its ore to the processing site at Kinross’ Fort Knox Mine, Manh Choh relies on a sprawling
logistics operation: Double-trailer trucks haul rocks several hours along the Alaska Highway and
other state-maintained roads. The trucks, each weighing some 80 tons when fully loaded, travel
at all hours and in all kinds of weather — typically making about 60 round trips each day.
The rise in truck traffic on the two-lane highway, and through Fairbanks, has sparked a furious
local debate about road safety and wear and tear on public infrastructure. Interior residents have
formed an advocacy group to oppose the ore hauling, and some have sued the Alaska
Department of Transportation to stop it.
Now, as Contango moves ahead with its projects not far from Anchorage, the company’s model
is starting to face wider scrutiny.
“The rest of the state needs to become aware of what’s happening here,” said Mary Farrell, a
Fairbanks resident who opposes Manh Choh’s trucking operation. “Sooner or later, if you live on
a major road, it will be in your neighborhood, too.”
Now a segment from further down, picking up on a “non-greenie protester”:
A new strand of opposition
One of the first things that Bob McHattie will tell you, and then tell you again, is that he is not a
“greenie.”
A longtime Fairbanks resident, McHattie generally supports resource development, including
mining.
23

“I’m basically not an environmentalist,” he said in an interview.
Yet McHattie has become an outspoken critic of the long-distance ore-hauling model.
He is troubled, in particular, by the trucks — and not just “how big they are or how scary they might
look” but their “atrocious frequency.”
McHattie, who worked for more than two decades at the Alaska Department of Transportation,
doesn’t think it’s fair for Manh Choh’s owners to send dozens of heavy trucks up and down state
roads each day, wearing down pavement that taxpayers must pay to repair.
“The state is essentially providing them with all the infrastructure for a conveyor belt, and the
company doesn’t have to do any upkeep,” McHattie said.
I’ve (perhaps unfairly) chosen to excerpt two anti-mine sections of the report and it doesn’t do
it justice, this is reasonable reporting that takes the time and effort to consider all sides of the
story and gets quotes from those involved, including CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, JV partner
Kinross (KGC), local communities and government officials. However, with CTGO now in debt
refi discussions with its backers and the heavy debt load the major cause of the heavy selling in
early December, those looking on should consider the next level of negatives that could result
from a company with a mine plan for its expansion projects that’s already getting pushback
from a region that’s hot on environmental sensitivity.
Metal Energy Corp (MERG.v): A thought or two
A member of the Ore Group stable, Metal Energy Corp (MERG.v) is a company that several of
you suggested as a potential stock for the 2025 TinyCaps list or even Copper Basket list.
However, you would have noticed by now that it didn’t make either, even though it was fairly
tempting and the main reason is that…it’s a member of the Ore Group. Some bullet points:
 I’m a currently shareholder of Ore Group’s “hub” investment company, OreCap
Invest Corp (OCI.v) and we follow its progress via the Stocks to Follow list
 I have previously owned Ore Group’s American Eagle (AE.v) and the stock is
currently a Copper Basket component
 I have previously owned Ore Group’s XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v) and the stock is
currently a Copper Basket component
 A big investment for Ore Group is Awalé Resources (ARIC.v) was until this year a
TinyCaps Basket component and one that’s been on my radar as a potential but for
several months, even though I haven’t bought any yet.
That’s a lot of Ore Group and as I’m already at risk of being classed as a Stephen Stewart
groupie, MERG.v felt like a bridge too far at this stage. However, there’s also a more practical
excuse as OreCap (OCI.v) took 5.25m units of the recent MERG.v placement and as such, we
get to keep an eye on its progress via the OCI tracking table (see above). Before moving on,
we also note that aside its Ore Group credentials, the groups’ main man Stewart owns (18) “…a
total of 13,100,000 Common Shares on a non-diluted basis and 17,200,000 on a partially
diluted basis, representing 12.26% and 15.51% of the total issued and outstanding Common
Shares, respectively” after buying in at 3c in October. He doesn’t need me to help bolster his
holding.
Anyway, to the point and the reason MERG has plenty of reader eyes is logical enough as the
company in October announced the acquisition of the Highland Valley Project, a name that
most seasoned investors will immediately recognize as Highland Valley is also the name of
Canada’s biggest copper mine, operated by Teck in BC. And indeed (map right) that’s no
coincidence, as the main attraction of MERG.v at Highland Valley Copper is its address. That
map above shows the location of Teck’s big mine and the
way the 100% owned MERG project borders the
concession (and if you want a little more precise, the
capital “O” of “Teck HVC Operations” is the approximate
location of the Teck processing facility. That’s a great
address and if you check the MERG.v corporate
presentation dated November 2024 (19) it shows how the
main geological trend that hosts the HVC deposit runs
onto the MERG concession. That encapsulates why MERG
24

has moved on this land and why many of you like what they see on an exploration basis.
At 141.1m shares out and this weekend’s share price of 4c, MERG.v has a market cap of just
C$5.64m and that’s the #1 reason to consider this trade, as aside the prospective land and with
a group that will bring market eyeballs, you get a lot of leveraged upside if they hit something.
However, with an IKN-estimated treasury position of C$2m (give or take 100k or so) and plans
to drill its project this year then generate a 43-101 compliant
maiden resource by 2026, the company will need to raise
more money and will do so by selling shares. Keep that in
mind if you think this company offers the potential reward to
cover the high risk of buying any sub-10c share (this is one of
many) and consider today’s note as the start, rather than the
end of your personal DD. Me? It’s on my radar thanks to the
OCI position and though merely tracking too many Ore Group
stocks is a little rich, I have no problems about buying another
if circumstances merit in 2025. Definitely worse out there at
this share price.
Conclusion
That’s all for IKN816, we close with two bullet points:
 I’ve gone back and forth on whether to mention this and in the end I’ve decided to do
so, even though it’s a personal rather than a professional matter, above all in the desire
to pay public tribute to an excellent person. My mother, nee Jeanette Frampton, passed
away this weekend. She was advanced in years, had suffered through serious medical
issues for a long time and has been hospitalized for the past few weeks so it’s not as if
the news has come out the blue for us, her family, but it’s still a very painful moment.
She’s “mum” after all and as her son, I am fortunate to have had such a wonderful
mother. She will be greatly missed by her husband, her four children, her surviving
brothers, her grand-children and her great grand-daughter, those among many others
in our extended family and other close friends. She was dearly loved and loved us in
return. I’m going to miss her terribly.
 I’ve greatly appreciated the opportunity to keep my mind off personal matters this
weekend by finishing this edition of The IKN Weekly, it’s been a blessing in disguise.
However, I will be taking a couple of days off as from this evening and the Twitter
account will remain quiet for a few days. This won’t change the normal publication of
The IKN Weekly so please expect IKN817 next weekend, as usual.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/schedule-for-week-of-january-5-2024.html
(2) https://x.com/Comunicaliza/status/1874153182118740338
(3) https://polymarket.com/event/ecuador-presidential-election?tid=1736002761576
(4) https://www.primicias.ec/politica/presidente-daniel-noboa-ataques-gobierno-tumbaco-quito-hospital-enrique-garces-
86689/
25

(5) https://elmercurio.com.ec/2025/01/03/candidatos-presidencia-ecuador-mineria/
(6) https://www.provenancegold.com/20241209-provenance-gold-drills-3.07-gt-gold-over-175.26m-including-21.7-gt-
gold-over-6.10m-at-eldorado
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-holds-near-five-month-low-as-weak-demand-outlook-dominates/
(8) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/234830/Kobrea-Closes-Private-Placement
(9) https://electrumdiscovery.com/electrum-discovery-corp-announces-positive-results-from-the-ip-survey-further-
validates-bambino-anomaly-setting-the-stage-for-2025-drill-program/
(10) https://mogotesmetals.com/vicuna-exploration-update-field-season-underway-at-the-filo-sur-project-in-the-prolific-
vicuna-copper-gold-silver-district/
(11) https://boz.substack.com/p/trump-wants-latin-america-to-be-actively
(12) https://www.france24.com/es/am%C3%A9rica-latina/20250104-posesi%C3%B3n-presidencial-de-maduro-el-
dilema-de-los-gobiernos-de-asistir-o-no-a-su-investidura
(13) https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrimusve2&f=m
(14) https://www.elperuano.pe/noticia/261377-gobierno-impulsara-11-proyectos-mineros-y-promovera-exploracion
(15) https://energiminas.com/2025/01/03/2025-inversion-en-proyectos-de-cobre-y-plata-superara-los-us-4600-mlls/
(16) https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-reaffirms-and-updates-2025-manh-choh-guidance
(17) https://alaskabeacon.com/2025/01/03/this-company-helped-build-an-alaska-mine-without-a-tailings-dump-can-it-
build-two-more/
(18) https://metalenergy.ca/news-releases/news-release-early-waning-report-regarding-stephen-stewart/
(19) https://metalenergy.ca/investors/presentations/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2024
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
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Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
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Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
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Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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