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The IKN Weekly
Week 814, December 22nd 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Wishing you all a Merry Christmas, Gold’s
stealth strength.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying seven stocks this week.
Stocks to Follow: Surge Copper (SURG.v), Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), Red Pine Exploration
(RPX.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Aldebaran (ALDE.v), American Eagle (AE.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview.
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v).
Regional Politics: Chile: The wealth is shared at La Escondida, Brazil: Lula da Silva back at
work, El Salvador fast-tracks its mining law change.
Market Watching: Torex Gold (TXG.to) gets back to work.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
You are unlikely to be surprised to hear I’nm b uying tax-loss bargains next week, you might be
surprised by the number of planned trades. With peak Tax Loss Selling now likely behind us
(see intro section), as from tomorrow Monday December 23rd I plan to deploy treasury dry
powder and buy shares in the following seven (yes, seven) stocks, either opening new positions
or adding to current trades (presented in alphabetical order):
 Buying Aftermath Silver (AAG.v)
 Buying Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to)
 Buying Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to)
 Buying Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to)
 Adding to Menē Inc (MENE.v)
 Adding to Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v)
 Buying Surge Copper (SURG.v)
There’s a mix of reasons for the trades but they’re essentially trying to do the same thing, buy
low and sell high. Details in today’s main Fundamentals section, below.
In today’s edition
 Not the longest or most detailed report this week, today’s edition is all about laying out
the reasons and rationale for seven trade purchases planned for the days ahead. I’m
looking forward to hitting that buy button on multiple occasions.
 Aside that, in the intro we do work on why gold’s recent price drop in US Dollar terms
hides relative strength in the metal, then in the Copper Basket we also think that
although sentiment for copper may be negative at the moment, it won’t take much to
re-light the single most strategic metal of them all and that the current U$4.00/lb floor
price level looks a good place to increase exposure.
 Other things, too. There are always other things
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Wishing you all a Merry Christmas
First and foremost, please accept my best wishes for a peaceful and enjoyable holiday season,
with a merry Christmas to one and all. Hope you get to spend the day in the company of loved
ones and doing pleasant things. Now for a little office, with week’s trading hours and a
correction on the limit date for Tax Loss Selling. With Christmas Day falling midweek and as
there are different customs in the countries of our two main focus markets, here’s a brief
reminder of when you can and cannot trade your North American stocks next week:
 The NYSE/Nasdaq: The USA sees its markets close at 1pm on Tuesday December 24th,
then all day on Wednesday December 25th. Things get back to normal on Thursday
December 26th.
 The TSX/TSXV etc: Canada also sees its markets close at 1pm on Tuesday December 24th,
then all day on Wednesday December 25th, but it also takes all Thursday December 26th off
for Boxing Day. Its markets get back to normal on Friday 27th.
 As for Tax Loss Selling season, officially I gave incorrect information last weekend as in
fact, the last date allowed for tax loss selling this year in both Canada and The USA is
Monday December 30th. However, the rump of selling is already behind us and its effects
are unlikely to be strong in the next few days.
And now you know, please plan accordingly.
Gold’s stealth strength
It took a while to land on that title line, because the “strength” exhibited by gold in the weeks
since POTUS 45/47’s victory in the US election is not obvious at first and specific to our focus
subjects. Indeed, gold is in fact down since November 5th and while we could offer up several
reasons as to why that may be, the number one is what really matters:
The Fed’s jawboning? Clearly has its influence. Bond markets? Sure. Risk on trading? Yes, it’s a
factor. Bitcoin and the crypto rally? Allowable if you must but behind it all is the Return of King
Dollar (Kudlow’s flog for nearly 30 years (1), just borrowing it for a week Larry) and the way
the Trump win has re-established the USD as the de facto central building block of the world’s
financial system. Even before re-taking office, Trump’s strong dollar policy cannot have been
made clearer in subtle (e.g. lower US corporate taxes and red tape) and no-so-subtle (non-USD
denominated trading = Tariffs for you!) ways. And now, with the Fed deciding that the fight
against inflation isn’t over yet, we’ve seen even more reason to back the USD. The result is
seen in the chart above, as the DXY last week hit heights not seen for over two years, the back
end of the 2022 Fed rates tightening cycle when you could buy an ounce of gold for under
U$1,800 (and if you don’t believe me, look it up).
Which brings our intro to its point: We’re not here for a remedial history of USD trading, instead
gold is our subject and considering the rally we’ve seen in the USD, bullion has held remarkably
well. Back out the spike highs reached a week before the US election and in general terms, we
can say we’ve lost around U$100/oz from the price of gold since the result of the most
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consequential election in many years were known. And that’s really not that bad. This little
table shows the strength in USD, with DXY up 4.05% since Trump won his election, closely
matches the ostensible weakness in gold with the main bullion ETF (GLD) down 4.46%.
Trump Part Deux: king dollar, gold ok, miners shellacked
ticker Nov 5th Today diff %
DXY 103.43 107.62 4.05
GLD 253.40 242.10 -4.46
GDX 40.11 34.73 -13.41
GDXJ 50.74 44.37 -12.55
source: NYSE, IKN calcs
In other words, the gold trade is all about the counting bean, its drop as almost entirely
explained by the strength in the US Dollar and as that’s not something that’s going to go up
forever, we shouldn’t be too concerned. What’s more, the last week or two has shown plenty of
enthusiasm among gold buyers, with a rally trying to take hold a couple of weeks ago and then,
after Jay Powell had thrown his large bucket of ice-cold water over the market during his
Wednesday presser, the gold market quickly shook off its knew-jerk reaction to the dollar move
and by Friday was buying up bullion again.
However, that little table above also includes the performance of the gold stock benchmark
ETFs GDX and GDXJ and those tell a different story. The market may be ready to use the gold
safe haven even with the rising USD, but it’s quickly dumped its more speculative positions in
the PM miners. Also notable is that GDX, full of larger cap miners that shouldn’t be as volatile as
the smaller fry, has performed worse than GDXJ in the period. That’s where we come in, as the
selling in the last six weeks has become overselling, with the combo of tax loss trades, the
political flux and underperformance from the sector’s leading players combining to cause the
sell-off in PM stocks. That’s why the next section exists because, if gold’s holding its own while
the USd re-adjusts, it’s only a matter of time before the high price being fetched by gold is
reflected in the operating results of the mining companies and even Barrick and Newmont can’t
help but make a profit at U$2.600/oz and above.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying seven stocks this week
This is a first for The IKN Weekly, as we’ve had editions in which we called multiple stock
purchases but in the 16 years this humble publication has run, we’ve never bought seven stocks
at once. Therefore, a little background to the move is required, along with thoughts on the
strategy for the group of stocks and the individual positions apart form the obvious of course,
buy low and sell high. It is, of course, highly unusual for a guy such as I, a low frequency
trader that bases most decisions on fundamental analysis of individual stocks, to make a
blanket purchase like this and it’s as much due to a convergence of influences (and some luck)
as anything else. In a nutshell the three main reasons are:
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 Cashing in on some winning trades in 4q24
 Watching from the sidelines as an uncertain backdrop played out
 A bargain price window due to end-year (tax loss) sellers
Now for a little more on those influences, starting with the recent period of fairly successful
trade harvesting and without putting too fine a point on it, one that was very welcome after a
barren personal period for winning trades. This isn’t a blow-by-blow of Trades Wot I Has Did, as
full details of my trades are always available in the footnotes of each edition, neither is it a
complete list as even in the rough moments, we
managed to eke out a winner or two. This is a
general overview and, for which this long-term
chart of GDX (right) that includes red squares
for the periods in which I’ve managed to cash
out a series of profitable trades will suffice. It
was difficult to go wrong in 2016 and 2017, we
then managed to grab plenty of the rally just
prior to Covid. Once that bananas moment had
passed (and despite missing the move in silver
at the time) the harvest was good, but the
period late 2021 to mid 2024 returns from the
portfolio had been patchy at best. Which brings
us to Q4 this year and the good thing about this
time is that we first managed to sell into the upswing, then thanks to a little personal reticence
as the US election date approached, have kept nearly all the cash as dry powder.
There were two main reasons for this, first the evolving under-performance of the mining sector
and the decision to remain largely on the sidelines during the Q3 reporting period, second the
big election and its aftermath. Regarding the former, the negativity was sparked by the poor Q3
returned by sector leader, Newmont. In IKN806 dated October 27th, as we picked over the
mess left in the wake of NEM’s poor Q3, with higher than forecast costs and lowered guidance
for 2025 and made this comment among others:
“…the fate of the world’s biggest mining company matters to us, here at the lower end of
the food chain trying to pick a winner or two among the junior producers and explorecos.
Mining is like any other business sector in this respect, it needs standard bearer stocks to
lead the way and advertise the benefits of exposure to the wider investment and trading
world. NEM is important, not only because it’s the world’s largest publicly traded precious
metals mining company but also because it’s the only stock in our PM sector in the S&P500
(Freeport is copper, you see). Seeing NEM disappoint is bad for us all, not just that
company and not just the producers that felt collateral damage last week as generalist
money retreated from “those gold miners that never meet guidance”.
That was enough to change plans and keep selling
positions, rather than buy any new ones and As luck
would have it, for disparate reasons we took profits
on three more trades after Trump’s victory (SILV,
NCAU.v, ALDE.v). As the chart pitting NEM against
GDX and GLD (right) shows, NEM has indeed
dragged down the PM complex and while gold-the-
metal has largely flatlined (we can argue for a little
weakness in bullion, but as noted in today’s intro
$100/oz against the move it’s made this year is
more healthy correction than trend concern). So by
the time all the above had washed through,
including the Trump victory and the realization the
margin of victory meant The USA wasn’t about to descend into legal or civil war, we’d arrived in
the Tax Loss Selling period and it made all the sense in the world to hold off the replacement
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purchases for a few more weeks. There are plenty of examples of the change in strategy to
offer, this one from IKN808 does the job as well as anywhere else:
“Up to last week, I was banging the table about being fully long the market even with
those three documented sales, stating that I was keen on putting the raised cash back to
work. That’s now changed and while I’m not predicting a wholesale crash or anything of
the sort, it now feels right to let that treasury alone for a while and see how the chips fall
in the new scenario for metals and mining…”
Which brings us to today. However, your fundies-centric author hasn’t rested on any laurels and
there’s been plenty of preparation for today’s announcement of a mega buying spree, with
plenty of the recent editions laying the groundwork for several of the trades you see below.
We’ll name the editions in which the hard yards were done for each, as well as a few more
thoughts for each of the planned trades. Now for the list of seven planned purchases and this
time, we categorize in a different order:
Additions to current positions:
 Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) (longer-term perspective)
 Menē Inc (MENE.v) (long-term perspective)
Purchases of current Watch List stocks
 Surge Copper (SURG.v) (12 month perspective)
 Aftermath Silver (AAG.v) (12 month perspective)
New purchases
 Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) (near/medium-term trade flip perspective)
 Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) (near-term trade flip perspective)
 Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to) (near-term trade flip perspective)
Here are some notes starting with the easy ones, the two additions:
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): If there’s one purchase you’re not allowed to be surprised
about, it’s this one. I know I’ve bored myself to death over the repeated “gonna add” messages
these last few weeks, including nearly every edition of Stocks to Follow notes since Novmber
began and in last week’s review of its financials as seen in Market Watching IKN813, “Red Pine
Exploration (RPX.v) files its quarter”. However, the final wrinkle has now been removed and
that was mentioned at the foot of last weekend’s note,
“…there’s still plenty of room for tax loss selling in this
stock in 2024. We shall see if it happens.”
Here’s a ten-day price chart (right) and RPX was a
generally available 11c last week, including three
moments when it traded at 10.5c (the hourlies close
chart wipes two of the trades off the visual). That’s a
great entry point as far as I’m concerned, if I can get in
without shifting my cost average up (much) I’ll be a
happy speculator.
As for strategy, this isn’t like some of the trades being
laid out today, as a long here is a bet that the new brains trust at Wawa (CEO Michaud, etc)
can unlock the project’s potential after many years of little more than wheel-spinning and trying
to sell the same story without much success, a period brought to an abrupt halt early this year
by the sudden departure of ex-CEO Yarie and all the ensuing controversy. RPX is cashed up, it’s
been doing the low cost legwork to define new drill targets, it’s proposed a new mine plan that
includes (what I believe to be) a smart pivot in converting part of the Surluga deposit into an
open-pit operation, we now look for at least three things from his story, perhaps four:
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 Additional tonnage: The more ounces added to the main 43-101 compliant resource via the
drillbit in 2025, the better. We know RPX has defined likely places to expand the resource
on strike and at depth, delivering on tonnages is what 2025 demands.
 More work on a mine plan that makes Surluga/Jubilee make sense: The decision to mine at
least part of the shear zone as an open pit operation makes sense on this score as it lowers
the critical barrier for mineralization continuity, but any prospective buyer of RPX (e.g.
WDO, AGI) requires detail.
 Exploration work: Wawa is a big footprint concession with plenty of prospective targets
aside the main 43-101 resource. While I’m sure a lot of the focus will be on expansion of
Surluga/Jubilee, the real bonanza upside to this company can come from success in
unlocking other zones and hitting what many suspect to be under the surface, it’s why the
new brains trust has my vote, they can do some of that magic “geological detective work”
to use the hackneyed phrase and hit a moneyspinner hole at any given moment.
 Real interest from a potential buyer. We know Alamos Gold (AGI) has snapped up all the
mining hectares it could in that region and we know it’s done so at pennies on the dollar of
original investments, most notably recently in its purchase of Magino from Argonaut Gold.
It’s a strategic backer of RPX and also has “its people” on the RPX board of directors for
good reasons. Aside AGI, Wesdome (WDO.to) is another active local player and considering
the connections and CEO Michaud’s previous job, it’s another live candidate as eventual
buyer, developer and operator of a mine at Wawa. So far at least, the potential exits for
RPX have been passive and that’s fine, but part of our speculation in this stock is the desire
to see competitive tension build.
At its current price deck, still discounted from the Yarie assay drama days but with a new , high
quality CEO running the show with a new (and better) vision of what Wawa could be, RPX is
the price you want from your gold exploreco speculation trade. Even getting back to where it
was before wouldn’t be much of a win for CEO Michaud, but would put an immediate +50%
onto my own investment and that’s the type of buffer that allows the longer-term holder to
stick around and wait for the big win potential. This stock has a lot going for it now that its
stars are aligning, 2025 could be the year and I’m going to be on board if it is.
Menē Inc (MENE.v): This will be brief, as the decision to add to the current MENE.v stack is a
simple continuation of a policy in place for the last couple of years. Put simply, I occasionally
add a small tranche to my holding of this thinly-traded stock and bring the cost average down
and the decision to deploy treasury this coming week makes it simple to allot a small amount of
the total to buying some MENE shares (and this purchase really will be small, in dollars it’s
unlikely to break four figures, another thin slice added and that’s it). The most recent coverage
of this stock was just two weeks ago in IKN812 dated December 8th and the main Fundamental
Analysis note, prosaically entitled “Menē Inc (MENE.v) 3q24 financials”, so no wasting space
with a repeat of all those arguments, please see that edition but if you do, you’ll see there’s a
confluence of reasons to make an addition today:
 Price: At 10c to 12c, shares are bargain basement today and a purchase brings down my cost
average nicely
 Timing: We’re about to get news of the MENE.v Q4 sales period, always the strongest one in
its year. With the new CEO now making a difference to costs and the company’s financial
position as strong as ever, there’s very little downside and plenty of chances of a rally in the
weeks to come.
 Macro: A luxury goods retailer at heart, MENE is likely to benefit from the improving scenario
for a luxury goods market that’s been in a trough for the last couple of years but is showing
clear signs of revival.
That’s all for this addition plan, nothing particularly new or groundbreaking and if you want to
pigeonhole it, how about “Mark averaging down on one of his losers”. I can handle the
criticism.
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Now for the two stocks making the move from Watch List to the main recommended list
section:
Surge Copper (SURG.v): We’ve followed SURG for a couple of years, mostly via the TinyCaps
list and it was briefly a member of the Watch List in 2023 before leaving the waiting room
without a purchase that same year. This year saw the SURG share price…errr….surge in the Q2
period when copper prices ran high and the peak in mid-May coincided with the rarefied
moment when spot copper traded over U$5.00/lb.
That’s a clue to the baseline attraction of this
tinycap, as it brings the (in)famous “leverage to
copper” to the table via its large, low grade
Berg/Oosta project in BC Canada, which includes a
PEA level 43-101 resource on the Berg part of the
project of over 5Bn lbs copper M+I (at 0.23% Cu),
plus another 2Bn lbs in the inferred category, all
helped along by by-product credits in moly, gold and
silver.
The market is wary of the low overall grade at Berg
(and Ootsa so far) and that’s fair enough, but
considering the current low market cap and the potential for this stock to run again if copper
rallies, there’s plenty to like at this 10c level. SURG is actively exploring, drilling and growing its
project via corporate deal, for example the recent announcement it is buying a key strategic
land package that would simplify eventual mine planning for the eventual developer of Berg
(tailings facility). We’re bound to get plenty of news from the company in 2025 and as such, as
return to at least 15c is easy to envisage. I’ve put “12 month perspective” on this trade idea to
give a reasonable time window if required, but if SURG ran quickly at the start of 2025 I
wouldn’t have a single issue about selling and taking a quick profit. This trade set-up is all
about taking advantage of the current depressed share price, caused I believe by a combo of
dampened enthusiasm for copper and the tax loss selling season in Canada. Insiders have been
notable buyers in recent weeks and I cannot blame them, as although risky and speculative (it’s
a 10c share people, don’t forget the obvious), SURG.v is a cheap way of playing a copper rally
in the weeks and months to come and from where I sit, there’s low probability of any
meaningful downside as long as the copper price doesn’t collapse on us completely.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): We first presented this stock as a candidate six weeks ago in
IKN808 dated November 10th and a brief Market Watching piece, “Aftermath Silver (AAG.v):
Watch List material”, but the real work happened the next weekend in IKN809 dated November
17th and the main Fundamental Analysis note “Why Aftermath Silver (AAG.v)”. Please see that
note for full details, here’s a brief reminder of why I’ve come to like this stock and why the
purchase now.
The reason to like AAG is Bereguela, in South Peru, presented to the world as a Silver-Copper-
Manganese project with a zinc by-product kicker. It’s a stock and a story I pooh-poohed for a
long period, mostly because I didn’t believe its pivot toward adding manganese as an integral
part of its development story and also because it had been reticent in providing details of one
of the key areas for a stock story such as this, the metallurgy returns it was getting. That
changed recently (to my own surprise) when AAG announced results of met test work that
showed good recoveries of all key metals with low reagent use, as well as impressive results
from its manganese test work that indicate it would be able to produce battery grade
manganese sulphate with low levels of deleterious elements, which is set to become a much-
coveted product as EV batteries are expected to move away from cobalt and toward
manganese use. As for backing, the stock has recently become a favourite for the deep pockets
of Eric Sprott and while his overall track record may be patchy, the recent private placements
taken by Mr. Sprott mean AAG has more than enough treasury cash to do everything it wants
to do in 2025 (and beyond), as well as attracting market attention by being a “Sprott play”.
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That could be a double-edged sword of course, but for the near-term it’s probably an
advantage.
Back in IKN809 we ran the numbers on its resource (table above) and showed the project
economics worked, at the time making the argument for a stock price that could soar given the
right conditions, so see that note for more. For what it’s worth, I’m comfortable with the
ballpark economics that AAG at Berenguela offers at this early stage.
The final piece of the puzzle is the AAG share price, as back in IKN809 it was a 51c stock and
one of the reasons we put it on the Watch List instead of ploughing in immediately and buying
shares was the potential it could sell down as the year came to a close. And indeed…
…that’s turned out to be the case. In fact AAG traded under 40c last week and while I’m not
fishing for that number, the current 41c and 42c would suit just fine. Happy to have been
offered this price window and I’m taking it.
Those are the two companies moving from Watch List to main list, now for the three new
names and the reasons to buy them are all similar: These are near-term flip ideas.
Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to): This will be another brief write up this weekend, as the set-up
was explained only last week and I don’t think I could have made the trade idea any clearer
with a title for IKN813’s main fundies note “Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) is an obvious tax loss
season purchase”, it had all the casual reader needed
to know in the title line. If that wasn’t enough we ran
the charts, did the words and finished the note with
“…readers should expect to see Ero Copper become a
near-term trade in the next couple of weeks as we
ride more copper exposure into 2025”.
What’s more, the added bonus is that ERO has
behaved like a true tax loss trade idea and the cheap
stock has got even cheaper since last weekend. The
price of the NYSE-listed ERO has dropped by 3.2% to
U$13.25, the TSX listed ERO.to is down 2.4% to
C$19.04 and to illustrate, here’s the ten-day chart for
the Canadian listed stock (for personal portfolio reasons I’m probably buying on the Canadian
market this time, no biggie either way).
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As for the plan, this one is somewhat flexible as the basic set-up is to take advantage of its
heavy sell-off in 4q24, best visualized by the six-month price chart comparing ERO to the main
copper producers’ ETF COPX (right), and buy
cheap shares with the idea of selling them back to
a market that falls back in love with ERO early
next year. The company has had its glitches at the
start-up asset and headwinds at its main
operation, we talked through all that last weekend
but given a clear run into 2025, we should expect
good guidance from the company for the year
ahead and let’s not forget that the drop in the
Brazilian Real may be non-cash issue for its
balance sheet liabilities, but it’s going to get
operating costs to tumble in US Dollar terms and
that’s what the market will care about most.
Therefore, if the rebound comes in the near-term
that’s fine by me, but in this case we’re buying into a quality operator and if it needs a few
more months to get into full gear, I won’t mind holding through into 2q25 if necessary.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): The last two purchases planned for next week are strictly near-
term and base don the belief we’re going to get a metals price rebound into the first weeks of
2025 that pulls up all boats. As such, I’ve picked two stocks as vehicles for specific reasons, one
for copper and the other for gold, and the first is Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to). While we haven’t
run a dedicated analysis note ASCU.to this year, it’s a stock we’ve watched carefully over the
last three years and almost bought once, luckily deciding against the idea before watching it
fade and fail to impress. That’s despite of some heavy hitter sponsorship, as this stock features
a Canadian A-list management team, the sell side brokerage coverage that comes with that, as
well as support from high traffic newsletter writers and social media influencers (who between
them must cost ASCU G&A a pretty penny).
Reasons to run a near-term fliptrade in ASCU:
 It has plenty of volume and following, this time of year is when soothsayers put forward their
stock ideas for the year ahead and get a larger audience, not difficult to imagine ASCU being
top of a few lists.
 It has a large and advanced copper project in The USA, the backing of Rio Tinto Nuton and
with its recent (and rather controversial) bought deal placement, is cashed up for at least the
next three quarters to do whatever it wants to do.
 An angle to consider is the Trump Factor, as the incoming admin has already made it clear it
offer deals and advantageous conditions to high capex ticket projects (e.g. easier permitting).
That fits the profile of Cactus.
 The price chart isn’t the most obvious bullish set-up, but it often spikes had quickly and it
doesn’t take much bidding to do so.
I won’t be aiming for the stars on this trade, the
idea is to buy and hold through as 2024 becomes
2025 and if offered even a modest profit, say
20%, take it with pleasure before 2025 gets too
old.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to): The final trade
planned for next week is perhaps the most surprising,
as at a market cap of U$27Bn this weekend Barrick
Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to) is way bigger than the normal
sized trade vehicle here at The IKN Weekly, but those
paying attention to the Producer Basket section in
recent weeks will know I think GOLD, despite its
rotten 2024 and mediocre recent results, is oversold
and due a rebound. If we add the squiggly line for
GOLD to the chart we ran at the top of this note while
talking NEM, you can see that while not quite as bad
as its larger rival Barrick has also had a poor Q4 and a
lot of that has been for internal reasons, most recently
the high-profile spat with the government of Mali over its Loulu-Gounkoto mine there. Relations
have deteriorated to the point where one side is threatening to let its operating permits lapse
and is holding company executives in jail, while the other is threatening to close the whole mine
down and starve the government of royalties. I’ve been an interested onlooker and for a decent
overview of the current situation, Trish Saywell wrote a decent overview of the precarious
situation in the Africa SAHEL region dated December 16th “Miners navigate high risks, ransoms
in West Africa” (2), which goes into the politics, the way military-led governments such as that
of Mali are shaking down mining companies and the reasons behind the sudden grab for cash,
including plenty of quotes from experts in the region. It’s worth your reading time for those
considering joining me in this trade, it goes into plenty of the angles, here’s one of them:
Cash-strapped military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, three of the key countries in Africa’s volatile
Sahel region, are trying to negotiate new mining contracts to support their regimes financially and to give
them the upper hand in a more than decade-long fight against terrorist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and
the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara.
Mali introduced a new mining code last year to increase the government’s stakes to 35% from 20% and
abolished certain tax exemptions.
Tensions flared in early December when Mali issued an arrest warrant for Barrick CEO Mark Bristow in a
dispute over taxes and how to share the wealth from the company’s Loulu-Gounkoto mine. In October,
Barrick paid US$85 million to the government amid ongoing negotiations but denied allegations by the Malian
Ministry of Mines and the Finance Ministry that it had not honoured its commitments.
The warrant for money laundering follows the regime’s detention in November of four Barrick employees.
However, the main reason to like GOLD from here is the one I sketched out in IKN809 dated
November 17th, here’s how that note ended:
As stated, I’m not a massive fan of this stock and you won’t hear me defending it with
passion and verve, but at current prices, it doesn’t have to be a crazy profit generator. Q4
is always one of its best quarters, the company has assured us it will make the lower end
of its guidance range for production this year (which means it misses on costs, but we’ve
kind of worked that one out already) and you can bet serious money that the cash flow
from gold at U$2,600/oz and above will impress
To repeat: You’re not going to find me sticking up for Mark Bristow of extolling the virtues
of this company compared to others (first among equals AEM, which has been knocking it
out the park for three years running), but you will hear me stating out loud that GOLD at
U$16.65 is way too cheap and offers value for the buyer. For a P/Bv of 1.0, it needs to be
a U$19 stock (or U$18.91, but you know what I mean) and that number is perfectly
attainable, all GOLD will need is one decent quarter for the rally to start and the “hey, not
so bad after all” comments from the stuffed suits. That quarter is almost certainly 4q24
and we’ll get to hear about its production and
preliminary sales in January.
IKN814 back and one month ago, I thought the
U$16.65 on offer was a good price for a stock that’s
bound to rally once the math people do their sums
about the Q4 production numbers and the likely
average selling price of its gold. Here we are one
month later and GOLD is 7.1% cheaper at U$15.46,
10

so just to get back to a 1X price/book it needs to rally by 22%. That’s more than enough for a
guy like me to risk a few shekels on a stock that looks mightily oversold coming out of this
year’s tax loss selling season and ready to post the type of production numbers that will let
Mark Bristow salvage his year. Therefore, this also is envisaged as a near-term fliptrade and if
offered even 20% for my outlay in January, with a mind’s eye looking to the GOLD 4q24
production NR as a likely catalyst, I’ll take that money and run.
Bottom line: Seven trades is a LOT for a guy like me, it will also being the Stocsk to Folow list
up to its full quota of 20 open positions as we enter the New Year. But that’s okay, as this
current quarter has unfolded the plan has evolved and the strategy of building treasury and
waiting for cheap prices is only the start point for making money in the market. For that, capital
must be deployed and after a period of patience, it’s time to act. With luck (and what could
possibly go wrong?) at least a couple of these trades will be closed in a matter of weeks and
provide further treasury liquidity, but others (e.g. Red Pine) are more about building significsnt
positions in the type of exploreco that can offer serious wins over longer periods. The reasons
for each purchase may be different, but the basic principle is the same: we’re capitalists trying
to make money from mining stocks. Game on.
Stocks to Follow
A clear negative week for all mining stocks, be they precious or industrial metal focused, as well
as junior mining stocks and (of course) our Stocks to Follow portfolio of names, though the
addition of the last full week of tax loss selling also means there were big moves in both
directions and plenty of volatility on show. The basic headcount shows just three week-over-
week winners from the list of 16, with one stock unchanged (MIRL.cse), which means 12 losers
and we’re not listing them all. However, two of the three winners were big moves so a cheer for
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to up 12.2%) and Surge Copper (SURG.v up 10.5%) for bringing some
light relief to the table. As for the losers, they were headed by percentage drops in Patagonia
Gold (PGDC.v down 25.0%), Mene Inc (MENE.v down 19.2%), Orecap (OCI.v down 14.3%),
Aftermath (AAG.v down 12.9%) and Libero (LBC.v down 10.7%). Quite the list, with the
mitigation that all of our largest positions missed out on the nastiest of the drops this week
(and that we’re quite happy AAG.v dropped the way it did).
We currently have 16 names in the Stocks to Follow list four fewer than our self-imposed
maximum number but that’s going to change in the days to come, we’ll be up to 20 this time
next weekend. Seven stocks are in the green, one is unchanged, eight are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.26 23.8% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.60 -25.0% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$15.19 -7.0% undervalued midcap gold
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.62 5.2% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.95 62.3% Quality Cu developer
Red Pine Expl RPX.v ADDING C$0.105 8-Sep-24 C$0.11 4.8% New sm position, will build
Libero Copper LBC.v SPEC BUY C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.335 -1.5% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.105 -44.7% Cu jr, disappointing to date
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
11

IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.21 -30.0% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.03 50.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Aftermath Silver AAG.v BUYING $0.46 10-Nov-24 C$0.405 -12.0% Silver exploreco, nice project
Surge Copper SURG.v BUYING $0.095 1-Dec-24 C$0.105 10.5% bulk copper in good address
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.27 217.6% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.105 -78.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Surge Copper (SURG.v): BUYING. As seen above in
today’s main Fundies note. The only small addenda to add
to the above is seen in this ten-day chart, as the final
10.5c closing price on Friday is a little on the optimistic
side for current longs and I’m confident of being able to
get in for less. As always, thinly-traded stocks (in dollar
terms) require a little patience to position in at first, so if
you’re thinking of joining me on this one and decide to fat
finger the trade, that’s your prerogative. Don’t expect me
to buy at the same time as you if that happens. Either
way, this will be “position opened” by this time next weekend.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): BUYING. As seen above in today’s main Fundies note, the same
way as SURG this one will move from “Watch List” to the main part of the table as from next
week. That’s all.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): ADDING. As seen above in today’s main Fundies note.
Nothing else to add here, just making sure you see the trade plan.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Another penny and a half knocked off the already discounted share
price and the observation from last weekend that MAI is getting chewed by tax loss sellers
receives more evidence.
If you were wondering, yes it is an obvious alternative as a post tax loss trade and as long as
MAI delivers on the production increase it promised us for Q4 out of Santana, as well as the
timely closure of the Sabre Gold acquisition, it should rebound from these stupid-low prices in
12

good fashion. And yes, I thought about trading it from here into 2025 in a separate batch of
shares. But no, I have too many already and as the main position is “On Notice” (see IKN810,
with the follow-up in IKN811) it would be weird to add at this point and send crossed signals to
the readership of The IKN Weekly.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): This traded largely as expected and seems to have found a
new range in the 25c-30c level, which is very good for
the company and shareholders in early, not so great
for those who piled in on the latest drill NR, as
impressive as that hole was.
Personally speaking, observer on the outside looking
in for the last 200% or so, it leaves me in a bit of a
quandary: On the one hand, it’s still a promising
exploreco and project, on the other a lot of the initial
value has now disappeared and it might not be
something worthy of Watch List status in 2025 at this
price level. Not going to rush the decision, we’ll see
how it trades for a few more weeks first.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): The continued weakness in both American Eagle (AE.v, Copper Basket)
and Awalé Resources (ARIC.v, tinycaps basket) is weighing on our composite play somewhat
and even though the arb is still largely in our favour (+20% and bits) and will stop any large
losses from occurring…
OCI.v: PRO FORMA Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.63 7.36 3.0
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.33 0.03 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.405 2.99 1.2
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.205 0.85 0.3
XXIX.v 39.10 0.115 4.50 1.8
MERG.v 5.50 0.04 0.22 0.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.035 0.86 0.3
subtotal 16.82 6.8c
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 18.02 7.3c
At 247.714 S/O
…it’s not a surprise to see OCI back at the 6c line this weekend. It’s possible to see 5.5c in the
days ahead, that will depend on the performance of (mostly) AE and ARIC, but those interested
in this value-packed way of playing a suite of risky but interesting exploreco stories should be
suitably interested at this 6c price.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): One of the odd things
about this stock and something I’ve noticed happening
more often than not on the four times a year it
happens, but you can’t tell without knowing at which
moment ARG goes ex-divi and pays out the latest 3c in
cash
Maybe due to its relatively low traded volume and the
amount of tight-handed insto holders, but it’s still
mathematically strange. Anyway, the cash should be
available in my account as from tomorrow to provide a
little more ammo for the planned purchases.
13

Eldorado Gold (EGO): Continues to trade smack in line with the GDX. I gave plenty of
thought to adding to this position instead of opening a new line with Barrick (GOLD, see
Fundamentals section) but ultimately decided against it for three reasons:
1) If we get the post-Christmas/New-Year’s rally I’m expecting from the precious metals
complex, it should happen with top-down money and that’s the type which gravitates to
the widest bandwidths tickers, the ones even Wall St can name, and they’re NEM, GOLD
and GDX (and yeah, I’d even exclude AEM and FNV from this exclusive list). EGO would
move afterwards, not before and for this trade I’m looking to flip in and out quickly, not
stick around for the wealth creation.
2) The current woes at Barrick (e.g. Mali) provide the risk leverage and adds to its
speculative value.
3) I’d find it far more difficult to sell EGO if the trade(s) work out and a quick difference is
made. I like EGO a lot for its deep value at current share prices, solid financial position and
strong organic growth pipeline. Barrick less so. The temptation to “oh, let’s hold onto these
new EGO shares a while longer” would be there, whereas I’d cahs the GOLD papers in a
heartbeat.
So Barrick it is for this new trade set-up but be clear, I like EGO a lot as we enter 2025 and it
should also provide strong production numbers at some point in the first couple of weeks of
January 2025.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): After jagging down on around 20k volume Tuesday, MARI
shot up with willing buyers of modest amounts
Thursday and Friday to end as one of the bigger
winners of the week. The only real lesson to take
away from the chart (right) is to remember that
the only way to approach this type of thinly-traded
vehicle is to be patient when entering, patient
once holding and not to let the slings and arrows
of day-to-day volatility concern you. A little like
our recently closed successful trade in Aldebaran
(ALÑDE.v), the point of owning MARI is to be
there when it delivers the PFS (likely this coming
quarter) and then being there as it starts the
process of marketing itself to the highest bidder.
Forget trying to get cute by trading it.
The Copper Basket
After fifty-one weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 27.42% to level stakes:
14

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 2469.81 13.22 84.6%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 729.87 4.51 9.2%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 460.89 4.95 44.3%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 360.02 2.12 138.2%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 159.33 223.06 1.40 -20.0%
6 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.519 211.06 7.15 -39.4%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 159.68 0.78 23.8%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 124.74 0.54 -60.9%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 150.07 94.54 0.63 142.3%
10 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 71.07 0.30 -20.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 119.31 66.81 0.56 211.1%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 23.01 0.36 -37.9%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.12 173.7 19.98 0.115 -4.2%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 76.381 18.71 0.245 -59.8%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 9.30 0.045 -35.7%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 27.42%
To my own surprise, the Copper Basket average
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
managed to gain 1.81% last week, thanks 50%
45%
mostly to a handful of out-performing stocks 40%
35%
and partly to a late Friday buying burst triggered 30%
by ETF rebalancing trades. There were seven 25%
20%
winners on the week (NGEX.to, SLS.to, MARI.to, 15%
10%
ALDE.v, FDY.to, OCO.v, ECU.v) including big
5%
percentage moves in Aldebaran Resources 0%
-5%
(ALDE.v up 22.5%), Marimaca Copper -10%
(MARIO.to up 12.2%), Element 29 (ECU.v up
120%) and Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v up
9.1%), those were enough to counteract the
weight of the seven losers (LA.v, BIG.v, ASCU.to, KDK.v, AE.v, XXIX.v, COR.v) that also
included plenty of large percentage moves, headed by the drop in American Eagle (AE.v down
18.2%) and followed by XXIX Metal (XXIX.v down 14.8%), Hercules Metals (BIG.v down
11.5%) and Camino
As for copper-the-metal, here we are again at U$4.10/lb on the near-dated futures contract
(with spot typically a couple of pennies lower) and in the last six months, we’ve visited this level
no fewer than four times without it cracking (much, the August brief dip to under U$4.00/lb
was the only time it felt real strain).
As is usual for the time of year, brokerages and research houses are coming out with their
global copper market predictions for 2025 and also as usual, they’re predicting a supply surplus
15
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs

that never seems to materialize. Take for example ING here (3), which expects the global
market to be in surplus of around 200kmt of refined copper for the year ahead, compared to
the approximate 100kmt surplus now forecast for 2024. That’s in a graphic in the report linked,
what they fail to mention is that this time last year, their forecast was for a 2024 surplus of
467kmt. Details…
Anyway, see the report linked above for more, as for the production side of the equation here’s
how they see things;
“In 2025, growth is expected to be higher at 3.5% with global growth mainly benefitting from a
further ramp-up in capacity at mines in the DRC, including Kamoa-Kakula, and in Mongolia (Oyo
Tolgoi), as well as from the restart of the Malmyzhskoye mine in Russia. Several expansions and
the opening of medium and small mines will also add
to production.”
That fits with the latest out of Chile and Peru, with
both countries this month stating (8) (8) that their
copper production should be in-line with 2024 levels.
The difference is forecast for DRC and considering
the news coming out of that country in the last few
weeks, I don’t see how anyone can be confident of
smooth deliveries for the next calendar year even if
the Kamoa mine manages its growth guidance.
Bottom line: Take all talk of a 2025 copper surplus
with a large pinch of salt as for one thing, these
people do the same every year and for another,
they’re buying into the narrative of slack demand in
China that doesn’t bear out once you consider the data coming from the world’s largest
consumer of the metal and for more on that, see below our regular look at the world copper
inventories, with data from Cochilco:
 World copper stocks continued their late year trend and the aggregate of the three
official futures systems warehouse inventory dropped by another 14,957 metric tonnes
(mt) last week, closing at 427,732mt. That’s three weeks of normality out of three for
December 2024.
 The SHFE was the centre of movement action once again, stocks dropping by 13,693mt
and closing Friday at 70,864mt. While the exact date or week changes depending on
the year, we’re now close to the bottom of the SHFE de-stock cycle and at some point
between now and the first week (or two) in January, stocks start to climb again. This
70kmt level is a healthy draw down and indicative of a Chinese market for copper that’s
better than the bear voices would have you believe.
 A small move for LME copper stocks, down just 500mt to close the week at 272,325mt.
 Comex stocks completes the trifecta this week, as it also put in a small copper
inventory drop of 764mt to close at 85,543mt. No biggie.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows that this year’s near-closing 70kmt level is typical and a
median average of the past few years. Normality reigns, which is quite the turnaround from the
situation mid-year when the expected demand for SHFE-housed copper failed to materialized.
The
re’s SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
a
350000 poi
nt 300000
we’ 250000
ve 200000
ma
150000
de
100000
rep
50000
16
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data

eatedly in this particular section of The IKN Weekly over the years and while it’s hardly the
most insightful or philosophical, it does bear repeating from time to time. We on this side of the
trade should remember at all times that China, responsible for over half the demand for copper
in the entire world (around 55% at present) prefers to pay as little as possible for its
commodity inputs. True for them all of course, but particularly so for those it does not produce
in sufficient quantity itself and when it comes to metals, copper is far and away its most import-
dependent metal input. We’ve seen China move to secure copper supply by purchasing and
building its own mines in foreign parts (Africa, Andean South America, etc) as a partial reply to
its domestic supply shortfall, but China is still highly dependent on the world market for copper
to feed its growth at a baseline level. It makes sense to expect them to “use market
mechanisms” to try and keep a lid on the price of copper and one of the ways to do that is via
some standard jawbone (good enough for The Fed, good enough for the PBOC), so every time
you hear that China’s appetite for copper may be waning, remember that it suits China that you
believe it. That’s not saying that any given fact, story or instance may be true or false of
course, the specifics of a story depend. However, we do know that China has built out its
smelting infrastructure to such an extent that now, as 2024 becomes 2025, those smelters are
fighting for feed and willing to drop contract TC/RCs for next year to historic lows in order to fill
their furnaces. And China being China, we also know that they’ve build near-term oversupply of
smelting complexes for a good reason, not just because it occurred to a dozen industrial
magnates at the same time to build new smelters because they’d all spotted a gap in the
present day market.
With that in mind, let’s reconsider what we’ve seen from SHFE this year. Back in Q1 when
copper prices flew on expected demand, around CESCO Chile spring meeting word came
through that China was drawing a priceline in the sand and wouldn’t pay more than $X/lb for its
metal (supposedly U$4.80/lb, if memory serves). We then saw a lack of buyers show up on the
world market and with hindsight, our house guess that end users were prepared to run down
bought supplies to the bare minimum before replenishing was accurate and borne out by what
we saw. Metal that normally moves from warehouses to end users stayed put (see weeks 18 to
33 in the above chart) and the world came to the conclusion that China’s copper demand had
stagnated. Then, as prices dropped back toward the U$4.00/lb we see at the moment, metals
stocks normalized, implying that end-users have replaced their thin stocks and got them back to
normal for the 2025 campaign. If there hadn’t been that period of slack demand (accompanied
by no end of rumour and hearsay), would we have copper at U$4.00/lb this weekend and a
metals that’s somewhat fallen out of favour with the metals chattering classes?
Bottom line: This desk contends that China has boxed clever in 2024 and has managed to keep
a lid on copper prices, which suits that country down to the ground. However, with signals now
normalized and forecasts for demand growth maintained as before, we’re going to reach that
much-anticipated supply shortfall in the near future and we won’t need to wait for the reality to
see that reflected in the metals prices. As soon as the market sniffs out that copper demand
isn’t going away (and is in fact growing), then does its sums and notes how new supply can no
longer keep up with projected demand, we won’t even need every third person to own a Tesla
in order for copper to make a long-term price re-rate higher, the market will use its barometer
to bid up copper again.
Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): On a day when several metals ETFs were running quarterly
or six monthly rebalancing, seeing ALDE do this late
on a Friday after trading slackly all week (right) makes
it a virtual certainty that one of the smaller ETFs
(maybe COPJ?) applied its all-too typical fat finger to a
thin market. We’ll know with more certainty by this
time next weekend, as we’ll either get news that
supports the late rush or we’ll see the reversal as
volume and interest drops. Either way, a 21.1% move
17

out of nowhere in a thinly traded stock isn’t something to trust until other evidence comes
along.
American Eagle (AE.v): From the biggest winner of the week to
the biggest loser, as AE.v delivered another set of good-not-great
drill assay results from NAK that failed to impress the retail crowd.
Of the three holes reported in the December 18th NR (4) entitled
“American Eagle Gold Delivers Multiple High-Grade Copper
Equivalent Intercepts at NAK” (chart right), arguably the most
significant is NAK24-33 as it went into the so-called “Jewel Box
Target to the North of NAK, the lesser explored and promising
zone which AE expects should add significant tonnage to the
resource as its drilled out. Here’s the bullet point presentation of
hole #33…
NAK24-33 intercepts:
 50 m of 1.00% Copper Equivalent (CuEq) and;
 104 m of 0.78% CuEq and;
 103 m of 0.67% CuEq within;
 505 m of 0.52% CuEq within;
 888 m of 0.40% CuEq
…and a headline 888m of 0.4% CuEq sounds fairly good at first light, certainly in line with the
lengths and grades found in the Southern zone of the project. However, as this cross section of
#33 shows (right), there’s a lot of overburden to this hole and then, when the mineralization
shows, it’s mostly confined to three clear zones with significant lengths of near-nothing
between them. This isn’t new to NAK of course, as we’ve pointed out
previously this isn’t one of those deposits that offers long runs of
clean and uninterrupted mineralization. Instead, NAK seems to have
been affected by several geological phases that have combined to
chop up the copper mineralization. Part of the job of the AE team is
to define tonnage, but another is to get a good handle on the shape
of the deposit in order to put together a coherent mineable orebody
and eventual mine plan. What the market seems to have assumed
form the results last week is that the deeper hits from #33 won’t be
captured by a economically viable pit shell in an open pit mine
scenario, due to the relative low grade compared to the strip ratio
they’d require to clear the (near) sterile overburden. At the same
time, the grade at depth, while reasonable, is probably not enough
to justify an expensive, technically more difficult and certainly more
time consuming block caving mine model.
It is still early days at AE NAK and the team has a lot of work left to
do in order to put together its mineable resource. Holes such as #33
may suggest to the casual onlooker that the eventual 43-101
resource won’t be able to include all the mineralization discovered by
the drill bit, certainly not all of it at depth. That’s still up for debate
however, as the job will need a lot more holes before the deposit
shape is defined and when we know more, that deeper resource may still be included. But for
speculative purposes, NAK hasn’t been able to offer observers the type of “banger hole” they’re
looking for in order to propel the stock higher. That may come in the five pending holes,
including two from the upper end of the Jewel Box target that have been the subject of a lot of
the talk and bullish sentiment ever since they were announced as cut. Those should show in a
NR in the near future and if either of those give us a long length of good grade, AE.v will
quickly get its momentum back.
18

The Producer Basket
After 51 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 23.53% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 44.12 38.28 -7.5%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 38.92 78.16 42.5%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1748.05 27.02 15.46 -14.5%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 22.33 116.21 4.9%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 7.50 20.58 26.0%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.883 5.15 21.55 70.5%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.114 5.04 4.8%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 204.909 3.113 15.19 17.1%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.62 9.01 40.1%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.32 8.83 51.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 23.53%
Our basket average dropped by 6.7% on the week, with all ten of the component stocks
registering losses. The range of losses starts with Lundin Gold (LUGDF down 2.2%) and ends at
Barrick (GOLD down 7.9%) and while we could point out the relative strength of Stock X versus
Stock Y, there’s very little in the way of silver linings in this data this week, it was plain vanilla
negative for the sector.
As for our semi-serious annual battle against the market, we managed to keep nearly all our
lead against the GDX benchmark and with just one week to go in the year (we’re putting a line
under the result next Sunday, rather than adding the last full day of trading on Monday 30th)
the 11.5% lead is now virtually unassailable. However, as you may be able to make out from
our tracking chart last week’s performance means GDX is at its lowest point for the whole of the
second half of the year, as the last time it was at +12% was the last week of June. We’ve seen
a precipitous drop from the high point of +40% (and change) reached by GDX in October and
the consistent +30% readings we got before November came along.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60% comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
That’s all for this week, the only really interesting stock news came from Barrick (GOLD) out of
Mali and we covered that ongoing conflict in the Fundies note above. Next weekend will be the
big 2024 wrap-up and unveiling of the 2025 Producer Basket list, so until then.
The TinyCaps List
After 51 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 20.91% to level stakes:
19
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8 ht51 dn22
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2%
0%
ikn -2%
gdx control
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
source: IKN calcs -16%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 252.95 12.65 0.05 -23.1%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 86.798 35.15 0.405 200.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 41.19 0.385 126.5%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 19.52 0.13 -27.8%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 3.99 0.045 -55.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 96.476 7.24 0.075 0.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 7.84 0.11 -15.4%
South Star STS.v 0.750 52.64 29.48 0.56 -25.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 288.518 30.29 0.105 16.7%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 15.98 0.135 12.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 20.91%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Over the years, the TinyCaps Basket has been a
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
better indicator of the health and sentiment of the 100%
90% tiny cap mining stocks toward the start of the year,
80%
rather than the end, and that’s true again in 2024. 70%
60%
Most of the stocks’ stories are now played out, we
50%
know the level of interest they raise among TSXV 40%
30%
speculators and with the year closing out, interest
20%
has waned in the smallest of stocks. Our 2024 10%
0%
basket has just one week left to run before it gets
its overhaul and registered a small loss on the week,
despite there being three losers (BAY.v, KLDC.v,
LMS.v) versus five winners (ARIC.v, DMX.v, PA.v,
STS.v, SURG.v) from the ten components, with the other two stocks unchanged (EDG.v,
VAU.v). The only big mover was the loss taken by Aston Bay (BAY.v down 23.1%), but maybe
the penny added by Surge Copper (SURG.v up 10.5%) is worth a line as well.
Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v): Last week in IKN813 we noted the nasty drop suffered by
Palamina Corp (PA.v) in the last few weeks and, while the best prices date back to the start of
the year, we could argue the same about BAY.v and
use it as another salutary reminder to take profits
when you’re offered them by these highly volatile
tinycappers. This 12-month chart shows the round-
trip suffered by long-term holders of BAY in 2024,
with highs reached early in the process but even
then, this desk was warning about the lack of
fundamental story behind this move. Not going to
get all toldyaso on you all, but this write-up back in
IKN767 sums up the situation nicely and was when
BAY was a 14c stock.
20
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

This one won’t be part of the 2025 basket.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile: The wealth is shared at La Escondida
Last week saw two related stories from the world single largest copper mine, the BHP majority
owned and operated La Escondida. First up, La Escondida published its 3q24 operating and
financial results (5) which include these basic numbers for the three month period:
 Copper production: 305k tonnes
 Sales: U$3.089Bn
 Corp Tax State Royalty: U$604m
 Net Profit: U$944m
The sales and production figure points to an average selling price for its copper of U$4.59/lb,
which makes sense considering the spot prices during Q3 plus the mine’s by-product credit
metal income. We don’t need to add in the costs figures to see that gross sales is spread
around stakeholders, with costs taking around half the cash, then the mine and the State both
getting a whack of money.
On that note we move to our second story (6) and include one of the costs items not shown in
our four basic bullets. Last week, one of the main union groups at the La Escondida mine
finalized a remuneration package with the company to cover the next three years, and as part
of the deal, the #3 Sindicato agreed to a non-conflict bonus for its members of CLP32m, or just
over U$32,000 per person to be paid immediately (just in time for Christmas, they’ll be happy).
That’s a record high deal for a payment bonus at any mine in Chile and will set a new
benchmark, not only for the other unions at La Escondida but for all Unions at all the major
porphyry copper mines in the country.
Brazil: Lula da Silva back at work
The good news is that Brazil President Lula da Silva has been discharged from hospital, gave
the requisite “I’m fine and raring to go” press conference to allay rumours and is reportedly
21

back at work. However, the health scare as reported last week has brought new focus on his
Vive-President, Geraldo Alckmin. As noted in passing last weekend, there are plenty of outside
investors that would look more kindly on a Brazil run by the right/centre-right Alckmin than the
current leftist policies of Lula that have, for just one topical example, seen the Brazilian Real
devalue sharply in the last few months, mostly due to Lula’s policy decision to run a massive
public sector deficit, current calculated at
around 10%. This chart shows the decline,
including the acceleration in the last couple of
weeks as the uncertainty around Lula added to
worries, with the BRL hitting 6-30 to the USD
last week before the Brazil Central Bank
intervened and dumped U$8Bn of liquidity into
the local market, calming the worst of nerves.
To that end, Bloomberg last week ran a biog
and need-to-know note on Alckmin and how he
fits into the current Brazil jigsaw puzzle and as
long as you can filter out the editorial line, it’s a good way of getting up to speed on the man.
Here it is (7) (in small print, as it’s long and I don’t want to take up too much room with the
words of others)
(Bloomberg) -- For decades, he was President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s political rival.
Now his boss’s health issues have put Geraldo Alckmin at the center of questions about Brazil’s future.
As the country’s vice president, Alckmin represents exactly what the leader known universally as Lula wants in a
deputy: a hard worker who avoids conflict and is content to stay out of the spotlight.
The paradox is that many investors and business leaders consider him better equipped than the incumbent to
respond to the growing economic and political challenges that are besieging Latin America’s largest nation.
The emergency operation Lula underwent last week came at a difficult time for his government, which is trying to
push a package of spending cuts through Congress in a bid to calm investor fears over Brazil’s soaring fiscal
deficit. The real has plunged more than 20% this year amid skepticism of his commitment to curbing spending,
and the central bank is hiking double-digit interest rates even higher in a bid to contain rising inflation.
A trained medical doctor and a former governor of Brazil’s financial heart, São Paulo, Alckmin is adored by the
Brazilian elite. He’s also widely regarded as effective in his dual role as minister for development, industry and
foreign trade. That helps to explain the positive market reaction as Lula was treated for bleeding of the brain.
Alckmin, who declined an interview request, goes to great lengths to show he’s loyal to Lula and not a would-be
usurper. But he may have to step up regardless if Lula’s health problems persist and force the president to make
way.
“He is an experienced politician, austere, not an opportunist, and has a reformist vision,” said Marcus Pestana,
director of the Senate’s fiscal studies center, known as IFI, who knows him from his time as a congressman for
Alckmin’s party. His track record in Sao Paulo “gives this correct perception of stability and moderation,” said
Pestana.
Lula is for now still planning to run for reelection in 2026. And Alckmin, 72, having lost two presidential campaigns
already and with the far-right forces of former Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro gathering, would potentially only be a
stopgap solution in any case.
That he’s still around now — and part of a leftist government — is remarkable in itself.
Longtime Adversaries
Alckmin typifies the conservative Brazilian establishment that Lula built a career on opposing. A devout Catholic,
Alckmin was born in the countryside town of Pindamonhangaba into a political family that produced a former
Supreme Court justice and a vice president during Brazil’s period of military rule.
As the nation transitioned back to democracy in the late 1980s, Alckmin co-founded the Brazilian Social
Democratic Party (PSDB) that would serve as the nemesis of Lula’s Workers’ Party for the next three decades.
The PSDB ruled the country for eight years under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who beat Lula in both
the 1994 and 1998 elections.
What Bloomberg Economics Says
Alckmin won the support and admiration of markets and economic elites after running two presidential campaigns
on a sound pro-market economic program. But if markets expect Alckmin to come forward with criticism of current
economic policy, they should hold their horses. Alckmin might think there’s a better way to handle policy but, as a
loyal vice president, he’s unlikely to voice any criticism of President Lula internally, let alone to an external
audience.
—Adriana Dupita, Brazil and Argentina economist
His own career only took off by a quirk of fate, when Sao Paulo Governor Mario Covas died in office in 2001
leaving Alckmin, then second-in-command, in charge of the country’s largest and most powerful state.
Much like Cardoso, he built a reputation as a political leader who valued technocracy over charisma. While
popular with Sao Paulo’s business community, he is known across Brazil by the name Picolé de Chuchu, which
conjures up a commonplace vegetable that lacks flavor.
He lost the 2006 presidential runoff to Lula, the epitome of charisma. By the time he ran again in 2018, corruption
scandals and an economic collapse had soured Brazilians on the establishment, and he was swatted aside in the
first round by Bolsonaro wielding a more populist, and combative, right-wing appeal.
22

Chastened by the defeat, Alckmin left politics altogether and joined the cast of an afternoon TV show in which he
had a segment called “Health Tips with Dr. Alckmin.”
His career appeared over — until Lula, whom Alckmin had once accused of “breaking Brazil,” resuscitated it as
part of his own remarkable political revival. In need of a running mate who could broaden his appeal against
Bolsonaro, Lula tapped Alckmin.
Surprisingly Close Ties
The two have so successfully put their rivalry behind them that their close relationship sometimes surprises the
president’s leftist allies, according to people familiar with the situation. Alckmin genuinely respects Lula as well as
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, who was responsible for building bridges between them about three years
ago.
It helps that the methodical and cautious Alckmin boasts a reputation as publicity-shy, a stark contrast to his boss.
But it’s not just an act: Both in public and in private, he often praises Lula. And even when Lula’s traveling abroad
and he is in charge of the country, Alckmin remains behind his own desk, under no circumstances using the
presidential office to which he’s entitled.
He remains in many ways a creature of the heartland, who slowly pronounces every syllable of Pindamonhangaba
in public speeches. But he’s also used the job to update his image inside and outside the administration.
He habitually cracks a joke as an ice breaker in meetings, a quirk that leaves everyone walking out of rooms with
a better impression of Alckmin than they had before, according to people who have witnessed him in operation
behind closed doors. His use of colorful dress socks and messaging that mixes government information with
playful posts have won him an audience among younger Brazilians on social media.
There’s more to the vice president than memes, though. Alckmin has been given the task of restarting the
country’s industrialization process with the automotive sector as a priority. He’s achieved remarkable results: 180
billion reais ($29 billion) in investment, according to data released this week by the National Association of
Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers, known as Anfavea.
Alckmin’s faith is so integral to his life that he always instructs his team to include a church on his travels around
Brazil. When Lula flew from Brasilia to São Paulo for brain surgery, the vice president was one of the first people
to phone the first lady, Janja da Silva, and asked for prayers for his health at weekly mass.
Days before, Lula had requested that Alckmin represent him on a visit to Pope Francis at the Vatican. During a
closed meeting back in Brasilia, aides related that Alckmin was asked if he’d had his photograph taken with the
Pope.
“Of course, and I’ll take it to my grave,” he replied. “I can’t think of a better passport to enter Heaven.”
El Salvador fast-tracks its mining law change
The advantages of winning your Presidential election with 84.65% of votes cast. Two weeks
ago in IKN812 we reported on the decision by Nayib Bukele to reverse and rescind El Salvador’s
law that prohibit metals mining in the country. Here we are, just two weeks later and the news
(8) that the law project last week made its way through Congressional Committee and
tomorrow Monday December 23rd is scheduled to be debated and voted on by Congress.
Considering the large majority that Bukele’s NI party (Nuevas Ideas, New Ideas) and alliance
has in parliament, the law bill is a certainty to be voted up and on the President’s desk for final
approval before 2024 becomes 2025. The one interesting wrinkle in the law project as passed
through committee last week: All metals mining is to be done by the State. That means any
private mining company wanting to operate in El Salvador will have to do so by way of a JV
with the government. The exact terms of these JVs is yet to be revealed, but assuming Bukele
isn’t about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (he’s pro-capitalism and understands how
business economics works), they’ll be on terms that private capitals can handle.
The mining industry has a new place to invest in 2025 if it so desires and, as noted in IKN749
dated September 24th 2023, there’s plenty of rich exploration ground to pick over in the Central
American state. This map (right) featured in IKN749 gives a taste of what’s on offer (9).
23

Market Watching
Torex Gold (TXG.to) gets back to work
We closed the update on Torex Gold (TXG.to) and its suspended operations last week in
IKN813 with these words:
“At some point in the week ahead we’ll find out how long the company expects the
current Federal government level investigation to to continue and whether it still
believes its Q4 will be unaffected. We should also consider issues knocking on to 1q25.
There’s plenty of room for another negative surprise for this stock at these levels and
on balance, risk is clearly to the downside.”
We didn’t have to wait long and as it turned out, things aren’t quite as bad as they seemed (at
least to this desk) last weekend, as on Tuesday evening we got this NR from the company (10)
that included the money line information…
“Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - December 17, 2024) - Torex Gold Resources Inc. (the
"Company" or "Torex") (TSX: TXG) reports that the Director General of Mines under the Federal
Ministry of Economy has lifted the temporary suspension notice and allowed for all activities within
the Morelos Complex to resume.”
…and that’s fair enough. Here’s the ten-day price chart showing the rebound put in on the news
at the open Wednesday, though I’d note that TXG hasn’t managed to bounced back to the pre-
suspension price as seen on that chart, let alone the C$32 level at which the stock traded on
the eve of the event. That may be due to the company guiding “towards the lower end of the
guided range of 450,000 to 470,000 ounces of gold” in the NR. As TXG produced 348,728 oz
gold in the first three quarters of 2024 it suggests a Q4 of perhaps 105k oz instead of the global
average 116k oz we’ve seen in the first three quarters.
Or it may be due to the ongoing investigation, as while TXG has been allowed to re-start
operations the government team has not closed the case and, as mentioned last weekend by
the union representatives with members working at the ELG mine, there’s every chance of
authorities handing down a hefty fine once the inquiry process has finished.
Conclusion
That’s all for IKN814, we close with a couple of bullet points:
 Not that I’m an addict or itching to trade and deploy that dry powder (honest guv), but
after some patience and seeing the decision to wait a while vindicated, I’m looking
forward to the market week ahead and doing plenty of buying. I’ll tell you how I get on
next week, as getting all the shares I want at the prices I’m aiming for would be
unlikely, but getting most should be in the cards.
24

 Next week’s edition doesn’t fall exactly at the end of the year, but we’re going to draw
a line under 2024, close the Copper, Producer and TinyCaps baskets and announce the
line-ups for each one for 2025. Plenty of changes planned, so watch this space.
 Buying Barrick shares for the first time in a long time doesn’t suddenly make me a
Bristow fanboy. This is pure capitalism.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/larry-kudlow-trump-is-backing-king-dollar/vi-AA1tHnXl?ocid=UE12DHP
(2) https://www.northernminer.com/news/miners-navigate-high-risks-ransoms-in-west-africa/1003874020/
(3) https://think.ing.com/articles/trump-china-add-to-copper-headwinds-in-2025/
(4) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-gold-delivers-multiple-high-grade-copper-equivalent-intercepts-
at-nak/
(5) https://www.redimin.cl/escondida-bhp-reporta-un-aumento-del-40-en-ganancias-netas-y-un-crecimiento-del-10-en-
produccion-de-cobre-en-los-primeros-nueve-meses-de-2024/
(6) https://www.redimin.cl/sindicato-escondida-logra-historico-bono-de-32-millones-en-negociacion/
(7) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/lula-s-rival-turned-vice-finds-himself-in-unwanted-limelight
(8) https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/empresas/salvador-avala-comisiones-levantar-prohibicion-mineria-reintroducirla-
pais-20241221-739304.html
(9) https://www.canadianminingjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/El-Salvador-gold-belt.jpg
(10) https://torexgold.com/news-and-media/news/torex-gold-to-restart-operations-and-project-activ-9824/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
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Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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