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The IKN Weekly
Week 813, December 15th 2024
Contents
This Week: Erratum, In today’s edition, Another Fed 25, Your final Tax Loss Selling reminder,
All good things to those who wait…
Fundamental Analysis: Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) is an obvious tax loss season purchase.
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Surge Copper
(SURG.v), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to), Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), American Eagle (AE.v), XXIX
Metal Corp (XXIX.v), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Lundin Gold (LUG.to) (LUGDF), Wesdome Gold Mines
(WDO.to) (WDOFF).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Awalé Resources (ARIC.v), Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Regional Politics: Brazil: Lula da Silva is unwell, Argentina: Exploration investment grows
thanks to copper, Peru: The shadow of Antauro.
Market Watching: Torex Gold (TXG.to) and its suspended operations, Red Pine Exploration
(RPX.v) files its quarter.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Erratum
Thanks to the several people who wrote in and pointed out a nasty number typo from last
week’s look at Mene Inc. Bold typed and underlined here:
“…we note that MENE returned a net profit of C$1.318m. For sure C$1.003m of that was the
effect of the returned options, but a “real world” net of over 4200k is still a decent result, only
the 5th net profit we’ve seen. And that, ladies and gents, is very good news.”
How I managed to change “over 300k” to “over 4200k” is beyond me. I have no excuses,
merely apologies.
In today’s edition
 Today’s main fundies section tries to remedy a mistake I’ve made not once, but twice in
the last couple of years. After having identified Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) at its low
price points in both 2022 and 2023 without ever buying shares, things now look primed
for a third bite at the apple. The market has been selling the stock hand over fist on the
back of influences that are now largely behind the company, its 2025 looks much
brighter and Tax Loss Selling has recently driven ERO down to true bargain levels. This
is now high on my shopping list for the period when the music stops and cheapest
prices are up for grabs, most likely the week after next.
 We do plenty on copper today, including an overdue first look at the big end user
growth story of today and for once, it’s not China.
 Tax Loss Selling will be on a lot of people’s minds this week, your author very much
included as I sit on my hands and keep my fingers away from the buy buttons as much
as possible. One more week of boredom and waiting, we should be ready to buy soon.
1

 Other things, too. There are always other things
Another Fed 25
The week’s main macro event comes (Tuesday and) Wednesday, with an FOMC that’s widely
expected to finish with another 25bps cut from the federal funds rate. The decision has been
telegraphed clearly (the only potential spanner in the works would be a surprise in Retail Sales
figures, they’re due out Tuesday morning with a +0.5% YoY consensus) that any market
moving news has to come from either a wording change in the communiqué or from something
Jerome Powell says at the presser, half an hour after the announcement.
Your final Tax Loss Selling reminder
Theoretically, Tax Loss Selling can continue to the 26th of December this year but as the
calendar falls, we’re likely to see the zenith of activity this week, Monday 16th to Friday 20th.
Monday December 23rd may see some action and then the 26th is there as well, but by that time
the world will be looking at different things and major market participants would have packed
up shop for the year. All this means we should be on the lookout for overselling as this week
rolls out. For what it’s worth, I’m sharpening my pencil and plan to start picking up bargains on
Monday 23rd earliest, market Gods willing, but not before and this coming week is watching
brief only.
All good things to those who wait…
…Agent Starling. There’s more than a little calm-before-storm feeling at IKN Weekly HQ at the
moment, with Christmas in the near future, the monitoring of a choppy and unpredictable near-
term market, a treasury position waiting in the wings and ready to be deployed and as from
early 2025, a Trump presidency during which (it feels as though) anything could happen and
probably will. Add to that the usual round of soothsaying by the world’s metals and mining
experts for the metal to bet on next year, forecasts on which mining company will buy which,
the next Big Thing area discoveries and the general lack of fundies news at this time of year
(with which I can occupy my own brain and keep myself out of trouble) and it’s a heady brew
at the moment.
Which makes the waiting that much more difficult, but sometimes in this mining speculation
game the best thing to do is nothing. Waiting matters and, if it’s part of a strategy that goes
the way it’s planned, becomes a profitable activity in its own right. Therefore that’s what we do
and in the meantime, we sharpen up the shopping list for Tax Loss Season purchases. That’s
my best attempt at a rejoinder for this week’s main Fundies section on Ero Copper (ERO.to)
(ERO) below but to close out this week’s intro section, here’s a little Beckett.
“We wait. We are bored. No, don’t protest, we are bored to death, there’s no denying it.
Good. A diversion comes along and what do we do? We let it go to waste.
...In an instant, all will vanish and we’ll be alone once
more, in the midst of nothingness.”
Vladimir, Waiting for Godot, Samuel Beckett
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) is an obvious tax loss season purchase
The house track record with Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) is poor. More accurately, it’s one of
snatching defeat from the jaws of victory because on two separate occasions, we’ve identified
the stock as offering strong value and a good entry point, only to ignore the trade and watch
from the sidelines as the stock price took off without me or any of my cash on board.
These three year charts below note the important turn points, with arrows on the comparative
chart below left (with spot copper and the main copper ETF COPX), then the simple price chart
of the US-listed ERO below right. As luck (ugh) would have it, those are very close the to two
2

occasions in which I’ve expressed the most interest in owning ERO. The first came in mid-2022
and while I didn’t write up a formal analysis note, I did plenty of DD, conversed with trusted
voices on the stock and mentioned in print on a couple of occasions as a potential entry point in
August. More fool me I did nothing about it, then come the end of the Northern summer
decided there was no value left in the stock at U$11 and U$12. That was a serious mistake.
The second time around was more formal, with the central report in IKN753, October 22nd
2023 and entitled “Ero Copper (ERO.to): A price drop and a potential entry point”, one of those
prosaic titles that tells you all you really need to know. Just two weeks later, ERO bottomed out
at just under U$12 but idiot me ignored the lows
because and to quote myself from IKN754, “I’m not
looking for merely good value here; I’m after GREAT
value”. In other words, I got greedy and thought
we’d see lower prices as 2023 came to a close. The
opposite happened and ERO accelerated into the
end of the year and when 2023 became 2024 just
kept on climbing higher, becoming an effective
double in just seven months.
The other odd thing about that rally was that it
came despite ERO posting a series of lackluster
quarters. They started in 3q23 and at the time when
the numbers dropped, I felt sure they’d see ERO re-
trace a little. The same thing happened with the 4q24 and YE financials, the 1q24 and then the
2q4 results. There wasn’t anything particularly amiss, it was more a case of slightly lower than
expected production/sales and higher costs due to inflation that combined to see ERO post a
series of small misses. The market decided to give the company a free pass, firstly because it’s
main payable metal was seriously in vogue and secondly, because its expansion project Tucumã
was about to come on line.
Then came 3q24 and finally, the market attitude changed. Partly because copper had lost its
sparkle as the next wonder metal trade in town after a year of going sideways, but more
because ERO’s habit of not meeting guidance expectations finally came home to roost. Up to
Q3 the company had decided to stick with its original 2024 guidance figures but that changed
on November 5th. Here’s an excerpt (1):
The Company is updating production guidance for both the Caraíba and Tucumã Operations,
resulting in consolidated copper production guidance for the year of 43,000 to 48,000 tonnes in
concentrate.
Due to the anticipated delay in achieving commercial production at the Tucumã Operation, the
Company is narrowing 2024 C1 cash cost guidance to only include the Caraíba Operations. The
Company is reaffirming full-year C1 cash cost guidance for the Caraíba Operations of $1.80 to
$2.00 per pound of copper produced. Positive factors, including improved concentrate treatment
and refining charges secured as of May 2024, a higher gold byproduct credit, and a more
3

favorable USD to BRL exchange rate, are expected to more than offset the impact of lower
projected copper production.
This table (below) accompanied the literature, giving the breakdown of old and updated
guidance.
A failure to keep to the planned improvement in tonnage mined in 2024 at Caraiba (blamed on
a contractor) is the main cause for the shortfall at ERO’s flagship mine, but we’d stress that
Caraiba had already fallen slightly behind
ERO: Copper production & sales, per qtr (Mlbs)
schedule in the first two quarters and the
announcement was as much a case of admitting
the previous misses as it was guiding for a poor
Q4. The midpoint of the new guidance would
mean ERO produces a little over 20.1m lbs from Caraiba in 4q24, comparable with the other
quarters of 2024. However, ERO also stated that
by the end of 4q24 they will have a second
contractor team up and operational at the mine
and that should mean guidance for 2025
remains as per (we’ll come to that in a
moment).
Meanwhile at the Tucumã start-up things haven’t gone according to the projected timeline but
as this is mining, that shouldn’t be a major surprise to onlookers. Rare indeed is the start-up of
a new mine glitch free and in this case, issues with a regular supply of electrical power from its
third party supplier caused substantial delays to the commissioning phase. However and as
stated in the 3q24 MD&A…
To address ongoing intermittent voltage oscillations, the Company implemented a mill power
management solution that enables continuous plant operations despite minor voltage
fluctuations. Since this implementation, the plant has maintained continuous operations and is
advancing toward full capacity.
…and that’s certainly promising, the kind of talk you
get when a mine is facing a short delay to its original
timeline, not an existential threat. However and as
seen in the above price charts, the market was not
impressed and seemed to have arrived at the end of
its patience with the stock. The sell-off was sharp and
the stock, already down from its U$22/C$30 highs at
the start of October, broke resistance and has tumbled
quickly over the last six weeks. This weekend’s
respective U$13.69 and C$19.51 prices for the NYSE
and TSX listed stocks have likely seen further
acceleration due to tax loss selling, as this ten-day
comparative price chart shows (and that’s the last of the price charts for today).
We believe that the selling is now overdone and, for the third time in the last two years we’re
about to see ERO turn tail and rebound sharply and that’s mainly due to what we can expect
4
3.72 1.22 5.82 2.32 3.92 9.02 6.52 2.22 2.52 9.02 2.91 0.22 1.02
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
Mlbs Cu
Cu prod (lb)
Cu sales (lb)
source: company filings, IKN ests

from the company in the year to come. These three charts break down the argument, starting
with the guidance for Caraiba, adjusted for 2024 but also including a slightly lower window of
between 38kmt and 42kmt for 2025. Secondly, we aim a little lower at Tucumã as well, even if
ERO decides to maintain its own guidance, with 2025 and 2026 the big production years from
the mine around the 50kmt level. Finally, its Xavantina gold mine has see its guidance upped
slightly for 2024 thanks to better than expected grades in the early quarters. As those grades
are now trending back towards the median there’s no point in expecting the 65k oz gold
guidance for this year will continue and we maintain the 60k oz of the company.
MT Cu ERO: Caraiba production and guidance MT Cu ERO: Tucuma guidance
60000
60000
50000
50000
40000
40000
30000 30000
20000 20000
10000 10000
0 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024* 2025* 2026* 2024* 2025* 2026*
source: company filings *ERO guidance source: company guidance
ERO: Xavantina gold production and guidance
So with gold production in line with previous years, the difference happens with copper, as seen
in the consolidated copper production chart and guidance (above right). For practical purposes
ERO will double its copper production, something reflected in its share price until recently but
suddenly forgotten due to its mediocre Q3 and lower guidance for Q4 of this year. We contend
with confidence that Q4 will be an isolated low production quarter and even if 2025 doesn’t
start in 100% working order at its two copper mines, it won’t take long until this exemplary
operator starts firing on all cylinders again and when that happens, these current discounted
prices will be a thing of the past.
Detractors could point to an apparently weakened balance sheet as a reason to stay away from
the company but, on closer inspection, this is also almost certainly a transitory issue. ERO has
seen cash and current assets drop as its finishes the Tucumã build-out…
5
03863 89773 96624
22295 00056 00006 00006
Oz Au ERO: Total copper production and guidance
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024* 2025* 2026*
source: company filings *ERO guidance
41824 11454 17364 75834 00084
00069 000001
MT Cu
110000
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024* 2025* 2026*
source: company filings *ERO guidance
ERO.to: Total Assets
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ERO.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
900
cash&eq Ac Rec 800
Inventory other current
fixed 700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab

…and that’s clearly put pressure on cash and the working capital position, but 3q24 is almost
certainly the low point for both.
ERO.to: Working capital
500
450
400
350
300
250 200
150
100 50
0
-50
-100
ERO is confident that with its new mine now up, “Rapid de-leveraging expected as production
and cash flow contributions from the Tucumã Operation increase” (quote/unquote) and on the
practical level, we should also acknowledge that the company has sunk U$124m into Tucumã
alone in the first nine months of 2024. As from 2025, that asset’s influence on the current
assets will flip from burden to benefit as the mine moves into official commercial production and
produces its first quarters of positive free cash flow. Not more drain and a new source of cash.
There are also certain advantages with the senior secured loan, its main debt paper which
currently runs until 2030. ERO may elect to refi this sooner rather than later and boot it further
forward to alleviate the roughly 10% of the debt that lands in the current liabilities. It has the
right to redeem the 2030 paper until February 15th and could do so via a refi. That alone would
go a long way to alleviating any liquidity squeeze if the new mine doesn’t start showing positive
cash flow immediately.
What this all adds up to is an Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) that looks at a low point for price due
to sentiment:
 Copper price forecasts are now as crowd-pleasing and bullish as they were,
concerning some traders
 ERO has just gone through a slightly disappointing production year
 The lowered guidance in the 3q24 report marked the change in attitudem among
holders who were no longer willing to give the company a free pass.
 With the Tucumã build-out weighing on the balance sheet, ERO looks financially
weakened to the casual observer
 The market seems to have forgotted that its copper production is about to double.
 Tax Loss Selling seems to have driven ERO down even further
All this adds up to the opportunity to buy a high quality and highly profitable copper (and
gold) producer as a significant discount. This window has closed quickly before and on the
last two occasions, I may have talked the talk but I didn’t weak the walk. But this time really
is different and readers should expect to see Ero Copper become a near-term trade in the
next couple of weeks as we ride more copper exposure into 2025.
Stocks to Follow
The general direction last week was lower for the juniors and explorecos, sentiment is subdued
at best and the only sub-grouping of stocks that benefited from the moderate rebound in gold
were the producers. It’s that wonderful time of year when reading the market for trends is
something of a fool’s errand, stocks do weird things independently of others and until we’re
6
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$m ERO.to: Cash and ST
source company filings
584.12 833.44 716.15 143.45 805.26
475.48
556.731 450.911 921.031 384.564 188.924
897.953
204.713
746.632
393.081
6.78
837.111
296.15 377.44 922.02
500
450
400
350
300 250
200
150
100
50
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$m
source: company filings

past Christmas it’ll probably stay that way, unless the metals complex moves decisively in either
direction.
Anyway, there were six uppers (EGO, LBC.v, PGDC.v, AAG.v, SURG.v. PAU.v) including the big
percentage moves in Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up 33.3%) and Libero Copper (LBC.v), two stocks
that remained unchanged on the week (PGZ.v, OCI.v) and seven that lost ground (MAI.v,
RIO.v, ARG.to, MARI.to, RPX.v, IPT.v, MIRL.cse) with no big drops among the bunch, happy to
report.
We currently have 16 names in the Stocks to Follow list four fewer than our self-imposed
maximum number. Nine stocks are in the green, one is unchanged, six are left in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.275 31.0% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.63 -21.3% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$15.96 -3.6% undervalued midcap gold
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.59 3.2% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.41 44.6% Quality Cu developer
Red Pine Expl RPX.v ADDING C$0.105 8-Sep-24 C$0.115 9.5% New sm position, will build
Libero Copper LBC.v SPEC BUY C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.375 10.3% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.105 -44.7% Cu jr, disappointing to date
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.07 16.7% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.23 -23.3% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.04 100.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Aftermath Silver AAG.v WATCH $0.46 10-Nov-24 C$0.465 1.1% Silver exploreco, nice project
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH $0.095 1-Dec-24 C$0.095 0.0% bulk copper in good address
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.29 241.2% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dc-20 C$0.13 -72.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
7

Minera Alamos (MAI.v): The chart says “Tax Loss Selling” and I cannot blame anyone for
doing so, we all have our own branch of capitalism to adhere to. Still…ugh.
It’s even more frustrating because until the recent placement was announced, MAI had rallied
into the better news and improving Mexican political backdrop to the point where it wasn’t a
real candidate for tax loss sellers any longer, but the reversal on the placement news dragged it
back under the line and last week it was all sellers, no buyers. The shadow cast by the Sabre
Gold purchase is also doing its thing and stopping any real momentum, so here we are again,
looking at a MAI fracturing equity price due to its combo of circumstances. However, please be
clear, all it will take is one permit awarded by Mexico’s SEMARNAT for sentiment toward MAI to
change and what’s more, that first permit award doesn’t even need to be for Santana, Cerro de
Oro or any other of its projects. One permit, anywhere to any Mexico-based mining company,
will be enough for the market to decide the bottleneck is coming to an end.
While here, MAI’s SEDAR filing last week notes that the company paid C$510k in commission to
the brokerages in order to raise the C$8.5m in gross proceeds from the bought deal. That’s a
commission rate of 6% and part of the fun when raising capital in the markets.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): While witnessing the market reaction to PAU.cse’s excellent
drill hole assay NR on Monday (2), entitled “Provenance Gold Drills 3.07 g/t Gold over 175.26m
Including 21.7 g/t Gold over 6.10m at Eldorado”, I thought once and for all that it’s have to
scratch the stock from the house Watch List because it had flown too far and too fast without
me. However, as the week wore on and profit-takers did their thing (please recall there are
plenty of placement shares with warrants at low prices here and accredited investor types tend
to stick to tried and trusted risk management strategies), the stock was dragged back to its 29c
finish and, while it’s still a massive winner for some people rather than me, I think we can still
leave it on the list for the time being.
There are plenty of new eyes looking at PAU these days and while the hole reported last week
was nothing short of excellent…
…those new eyes are going to go through the same discovery process on the stock and its story
that we did when first opening coverage. That includes its location in East Oregon, the better
side of the State for the location of a mining enterprise for sure but it’s still going to be a
tougher sell than if it were just a few miles further East and in Idaho. There’s also the fact that
while probably the best hole we’ve seen from PAU at Eldorado, it’s not brand new news and the
only difference these days is the number of eyeballs on the company. Finally, a close look at
8

the best grading zones of hole EC-1 show a close match to the NR with (ugh, save me from this
phrase) “visual assays” via photos, a couple of weeks ago. Put it all together and the profit-
taking action of Tuesday thru Friday isn’t so surprising.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): Interesting news from our new Watch List member (though it was
in the Watch List for a time in 2023, so maybe new isn’t the right word), as SURG announced
(3) it had secured what it considers to be a key property for its long-term plans from a
neighbouring concession holder. Here’s how the NR starts…
December 13, 2024, Vancouver, British Columbia – Surge Copper Corp. (TSXV: SURG) (OTCQB:
SRGXF) (Frankfurt: G6D2) (“Surge” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has entered
into a definitive option agreement (the “Option Agreement”) with Raye Resources Inc. and other
private counterparties (collectively, the “Vendors”) to acquire a 100% interest in certain mineral
claims (the “MacLean East Property”) contiguous with the Berg property.
…and we’re offered more details, as well as this map onto which I’ve added a bit of ink in order
to make things a little more obvious. The property in question is ringed in red and the smaller
circle just to its East is the Berg deposit, location of 5Bn lbs M+I copper and 1Bn lbs inferred.
FWIW I shot a mail to SURG CEO Leif Nilsson the morning of the announcement, asking him for
the quick'n'dirty on why this news was important. He wrote back that same morning with the
long and clean version (I checked with Microsoft Word, he wrote a 1,004 word mail and
included a couple of visuals too…not the first time he’s gone above and beyond the call of duty
to a simple question from me, either…consider me suitably impressed), explaining the strategic
reasons why, as well as how SURG has gone about putting its large land package together. I’d
like to simply copypaste his mail but that’s unfair, what I will say is that SURG is going about its
long-term planning in a smart way and this is the type of deal that, while not a market mover,
will pay its dividends come the time they start marketing the project to majors and real mine
builders.
9

It also makes obvious sense when you
compare the above map to the 2023
PEA, which included this visual showing
where SURG would like to put its
processing and tailings facilities for the
eventual operation. The PEA envisaged
camp and process plant were at the
very edge of their current concession,
whereas the planned TLS would be
firmly outside that. However, it would
be inside the new concession areas
picked up by Raye. When it comes to
building a mine, the eventual operator
doesn’t want to inherit a mine project with a small land package around it and then have to
worry about where to put the tailings, here we see SURG looking into the future and solving
problems before they arise, all at a relatively low cost. The market reaction to the news was
basically a shrug, as seen here in the ten-day chart in which the stock continues to bumble
along at or just under 10c.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): ADDING SOON. Same message to make it clear, an
addition to RPX is up towards the top of my TLS shopping list. We do more on this company in
‘Market Watching’ below, where there’s more space to consider its 1q25 financials (to October
31st 2024) as filed to SEDAR last week. Very likeable at these levels.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): The $3m placement duly closed in good order (4) and when it did,
the open market price massaging re-started.
The plan remains in place, I’ll sell into the upcoming drill assay hype and won’t regret selling for
a single second.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): We’re still pro-forma on our valuation table because even though the
XXIX deal is now complete, the MERG deal is still pending. But it’s a minor detail at this time:
10

OCI.v: PRO FORMA Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.77 9.00 3.6
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.47 0.05 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.40 2.96 1.2
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.20 0.83 0.3
QCCU.v 39.10 0.135 5.28 2.1
MERG.v 5.50 0.04 0.22 0.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 19.07 7.7
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 20.27 8.2c
At 247.714 S/O
The current implied valuation of 8.2c/share compared to this weekend’s 7c share price (thinly
traded last week) gives us an arb of just over 17% this weekend, which is still fairly thick but
it’s the smallest it’s been for a while. We like the new MERG deal and its improved holding of
XXIX.v (ex QCCU.v), but the real baseline value drivers continue to be AE and ARIC: If/when
they rebound, this does too.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Here’s one that’s
not going to be much of a target for Tax Loss
Selling. As seen in this 12-month comparative to
spot copper (HG00) and the main copper ETF
(COPX), ARG has done well compared to peers even
before we factor in the 13c in dividends it’s paid so
far this year. On that score, a reminder that the next
3c Canadian is paid this coming week and ARG goes
ex-divi as from December 20th.
Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v): The +33% move looks impressive, but it’s on the back of a single
2,000 (two thousand) share trade on Friday, so just forget it. We’ll keep watching until such
time as PGDC decides how it’s going to open up its capital structure for meaningful outside
investment.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): Up a couple of spots in a week where most of its Tier 2 peers were
down, EGO did well enough and that’s probably due to the news out on Wednesday (5),
“Eldorado Gold Releases Updated Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Statement” and to get
to the meat of the NR, this table does the best job:
Inclusive of depletion, EGO added 194k oz gold to reserves last year and now boasts 11.911m
oz in situ over its four operating assets, its main development asset Skouries (online this time
next year) and the likely next project in its pipeline, Perama Hill (as noted on previous
occasions, a small-ish but very likeable orebody). Ending the year with more gold than you
started with is what precious metals mining companies are supposed to do. As seen in this ten-
day EGO vs GDX chart, the market didn’t break out in rapturous applause but it did finish above
the zero line for the two weeks, while GDX didn’t.
11

EGO isn’t going to be much of a TLS candidate, but once we’re into 2025 it has an obvious
catalyst, its 4q24 production NR that should show up
by mid-January. We’ve run the numbers previously
and it points to EGO having an out-sized Q4 and at
these gold prices, that should be enough to set it off
on a long overdue rally. And yeah, that’s the sound of
your author banging the table on this trade, there’s no
cheaper Tier 2 goldie out there at the moment of this
quality.
The Copper Basket
After fifty weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 25.61% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 2382.01 12.75 78.1%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 716.92 4.43 7.3%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 410.62 4.41 28.6%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 293.79 1.73 94.4%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 159.33 232.62 1.46 -16.6%
6 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.519 214.01 7.25 -38.6%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 157.63 0.77 22.2%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 140.91 0.61 -55.8%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 150.07 115.55 0.77 196.2%
10 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 65.15 0.275 -26.7%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 119.31 59.66 0.50 177.8%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 23.97 0.375 -35.3%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.12 173.7 23.45 0.135 12.5%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 76.381 18.71 0.245 -59.8%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 10.33 0.05 -28.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 25.61%
Another down week for the copper explorecos 50% The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
list with a 2.6% drop for the basket average, 45%
40%
despite there being just five losers (SLS.to, 35%
30%
MARI.to, ALDE.v, OCO.v, KDK.v) from our list of
25%
15. Three others remained unchanged (BIG.v, 20%
15%
AE.v, ECU.v) and that means seven winners 10%
5%
(NGEX.to, LA.v, ASCU.to, FDY.to, CCCM.v,
0%
XXIX.v, COR.v). The difference between -5%
-10%
headcount and average is explained by the
relatively small moves among the winners, with
just XXIX Metal (XXIX.v up 12.5%) breaking the
double figure percentage move line in its
inaugural week with the new name (see below). Meanwhile, both Oroco (OCO.v down 16.7%)
and Aldebaran (ALDE.v down 13.5%) dropped heavily.
It would have been a better week for the copper complex if it weren’t for Friday, as seen in this
ten-day price chart of the most liquid Comex copper futures contract at present (March 2025,
12
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8 ht51
source: IKN calcs

HGH25) in which the early strength gave way to weakness on Friday in Asia, following on in
North American trading that day. Copper started and finished around the U$4.20/lb level:
All the fun came early in the week, when copper jumped smartly on Monday due to news out
of…yes you guessed it…China. Here’s Reuters (6)
LONDON, Dec 9 (Reuters) -Copper prices jumped on Monday to the highest in nearly a month
after top metals consumer China said it would take more action to boost its lethargic economy.
Copper had been slightly weaker ahead of the announcement by the Chinese Politburo that it
had shifted its monetary policy stance to imply more easing is coming.
"It highlights that the Chinese economy has been on the back foot for a while and clearly needs
some additional support. The market liked the prospects for that," said Ole Hansen, head of
commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.
Mr. Hansen is one of the smarter commodities brains out there, so it was interesting to see he
added this to his Monday commentary…
"These are words so the question is how much action will be provided before they have an
understanding of how the (potential U.S.) tariffs will impact their economy."
…in light of the fact that there was very little in the way of action to back up those words as the
week progressed, surely a key behind the lack of resistance
when the Friday selling began. This weekend, the consensus
seems to have shifted from “China Stimmy Now!” to “China will
wait to see what Trump does with his tariffs before acting.”
In copper macro news, the report of most interest to this desk
came from a different source, as the International Copper
Association India (ICA India), which released its 2024 Copper
Demand in India Annual Study last week (7). The PDF download
is on that link, here’s a graphic from it (right) that shows the
rapid rise in copper demand in the world’s second largest
country by population in the last four years. At the start of 2024,
copper demand in India was forecast to rise by between 10%
and 13% and as it happens, that looks like coming in at the top
end of expectations.
For context, in October (8) the International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC) updated its
forecasts for world copper demand to 26.3m tonnes for 2024, with China accounting for 14.6m
tonnes (55.6%) of that total and while we’re here, that’s a decrease in Chinese demand of
0.1% compared to 2023. More important is next year, in which the IWCC expects global
demand to grow 2.3% to reach 26.9m tonnes, with China accounting for 14.8m tonnes (55%)
of that total (and FWIW, International Copper Study Group (ICSG) (9) is in-line with that
forecast, its own number +2.2% for 2025) and next year, the India market is expected to
expand by “at least 10%”. Therefore we can state the following on India copper demand:
 In 2023, India accounted for 1.52m tonnes Cu (5.9%) of total world demand demand
 In 2024, India accounted for 1.72m tonnes Cu (6.5%) of total world demand demand
 In 2025, India will account for around 1.9m tonnes Cu (7.1%) of total world demand
13

That is the living, breathing example of an expanding market and with Chinese copper demand
growth set to be below the global total next year, a clear pointer as to where we should look for
the next leg up for the world copper market.
We move to our standard look at the world copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 World copper stocks took another leg down last week, stocks dropped an aggregate of
8,821 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 443,038mt. Same comment as last weekend, the
action continues to be regular and normal for the time of year.
 Once again the main move was at the SHFE, where stocks dropped by 13,199mt to
close at 84,557mt. That sort of level used to be the comfortable minimum held by SHFE
in the run-up to year end, but 2022 and 2023 went much lower and these days, it’s
more difficult to predict the next move. What we do know is that there’s enough coper
out there to fulfill end-user orders and the buyers are due to stop buying in two to
three weeks’ time, so the type of stock-out scenario we’ve considered in the past isn’t
likely to happen this time around.
 The LME copper stocks added 3,025mt to their total, closing the week at 272.825mt.
The same dynamic persists, with tonnage arriving in ]Rotterdam (up over 5kmt) but
leaving its Taiwan warehouses (down nearly 3kmt).
 Comex stocks rose by 1,353mt to close at 85,656mt, which means our slight suspicion
that copper demand isn’t so great in North America got a second pinch of evidence to
back it up. Watching this dataset a little more closely than normal.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows the 2024 dip under the 100kmt line is now firmly established,
but equally there’s nothing out of the ordinary about these levels for a December. Overall, a
neutral signal.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): With our trade now closed, coverage of ALDE returns to
The Copper Basket and last week saw the stock drop fairly sharply on low volume, just the
thing we feared might happen when deciding to close the trade a couple of weeks ago.
The C$1.73 finish on Friday is the lowest price seen since
the announcement of the new Nuton (Rio Tinto) strategic
financing deal, announced November 7th. Rather than tax
loss selling (very little in the way of losses in this strong
performer in 2024), this looks more like a fairly typical
case of “buy the rumour sell the news”, as the company’s
two major catalysts are now out there (fully funded and
with a new resource) and the low average daily volume
puts the flippers off from owning it. That means it will
probably move back up once the profit-takers and the
regretful latecomers have done their moderate level of

selling and that means ALDE should pop back at some point, but the same low volume makes it
difficult to trade.
As noted in our sale decision, the obvious next milestone is the PEA due mid-year 2025 (if
you’re running a sweepstakes, put me down for the third week in July) but ALDE could also get
a significant boost at some point in Q1 when it gets to report results from the Nuton testing. If
things go well there, the sulphides that make up the vast majority of the Altar deposit become
theoretically amenable to standard heap leach extraction and that would bring down the per
tonne cost of the eventual mine opex significantly.
PS: You may like to know that ALDE last week threw a party to mark the official opening of its
new company offices in the nearest major town to the project, Calingasta. This Spanish
language report (10) from a local newspaper covering the event has details of the soiree, which
included all the company bigwigs including Black (quoted n the report) and Heather.
American Eagle (AE.v): After the mid-November
anticipatory run-up followed by the good-not-great drill
results, it felt all-but inevitable that AE would drop back the
70c line and sure enough, it kissed that exact price on
Wednesday before putting in a bit of a rally and closing at
77c, with all the market noise and support you get from a
hot exploreco play. At least the trading in December has
made my 67c sale decision look at little less stupid; but only
a little. Watching.
XXIX Metal Corp (XXIX.v): The first week of official
trading for the new corporate name and image, XXIX
attracted a little buying late week and its 13.5c finish may
be a little too flattering, but equally it’s in the long-term
trading range of old-QCCU and it isn’t a massive surprise to
see the new name get a bit of Market pumpo, though I
strongly suspect the real marketing effort won’t start until
the new year. This will stay on the Copper Basket list for
2025
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): IKN798 dated September
1st we ran the Market Watching note, “The Arizona Sonoran
(ASCU.to) Cactus Project PEA: Met matters”, in which we
voiced our concerns regarding what this desk (and many others) considers the weak link in the
chain that is the ASCU Cactus project. That was the week in which ASCU delivered its updated
PEA to the market and on studying its contents, we were stuck by the lack of metallurgical test
work done to that point (aside the work done on the stockpiles).
Last week ASCU took its first steps to remedy the gap in its story and provide more met
information with this NR (11) entitled, “Arizona Sonoran Achieves Average of 87% Extraction
Rates of Soluble Copper in the Enriched Material”, in which we get to read about the results of
12 column leach tests, six of which are on the stockpile mineralization (again) but also “...An
average soluble copper extraction rate of 87% over 180 days of leaching was achieved from 6
oxide and enriched composite columns from the Parks/Salyer deposit, inclusive of MainSpring.”
That’s the important part and to its credit, ASCU gives plenty of information about what it’s
learned from those six composites, columns tests that use a range of copper grades and
representative rock types. A couple of observations, however:
 According to the test criteria, the overall cycle time used represents three years’ worth of
heap leaching in a real mine and from that, they reach around 93% recoveries on a
theoretical level, which would translate to 89% if they reach “best practices” levels of
production at the eventual mine. That length of time is a concern, as it implies the ore (we
can call it that) would presumably be subjected to several cycles of treatment (i.e. dilute
15

H2SO4). This calls into question leach pad economics and the cost of reagents required for
each pound of copper produced.
 It’s still clearly early days and ASCU says as much, with a paragraph dedicated to the launch
of the wider, $3m met testing campaign as recommended in this year’s PEA.
Following the recommendation from the 2024 PEA, ASCU has begun to implement
the $3 million metallurgical program ahead of the H2 2025 Prefeasibility Study (“2025
PFS”), utilizing both Base Met and McClelland Labs. This next program focuses on
upgrading the Parks/Salyer deposit metallurgical information. A total of 5 enriched
columns, 2 enriched and oxide composites, and 4 primary sulphide (chalcopyrite)
columns are planned, all related to conventional heap leaching, as per the 2024 PEA
mine plan.
That’s a lot of testing and with a half-year cycle time, that is likely to need three repetitions to
reach PFS/FS confidence levels, it’s going to be time-consuming. That’s something the
prospective buyer of ASCU shares should take into consideration.
 On the brighter side, these early met results (and presumable most if not all of the expanded
test regime as from now) does not take into account the Nuton (Rio Tinto) experimental test
work also happening at this project. We’ve seen recently at Nuton/RTZ is willing to deepen
the relationship with likely candidates for Nuton technology, e.g. the deal struck last month
with Aldebaran (ALDE.v). If ASCU can announce a new deal with Nuton along those lines, not
only would it be a valuable source of working capital coming from a strategic, but it would
also boost the chances of Nuton working at Cactus and thereby improving project economics.
The reaction to last week’s NR was flattish and while other juniors did worse than ASCU, there
wasn’t exactly a queue of eager buyers forming to bid for shares on the back of the news.
There was a block trade that went through on Friday
morning, but aside that things were quiet.
Bottom line: I still think ASCU could become a decent way
to play the Tax Loss Season in Canadian equities, but
perhaps a better catalyst to look out for is news on an
expanded deal with Nuton. If that happens, be quick and
snap up shares because when the market works out
Nuton/RTZ is getting keen on a project due to promising
met results where previously, met was one of the major
concerns, the stock oculd rally quickly. I’m not a buyer
today and prefer to wait for solid news, rather than
second guess look silly later when nothing happens.
The Producer Basket
After 50 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 30.22% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 46.36 40.22 -2.8%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 41.69 83.72 52.6%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1748.05 29.33 16.78 -7.2%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 22.95 119.46 7.8%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 8.09 22.21 36.0%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.883 5.26 22.04 74.4%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.34 5.40 12.3%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 204.909 3.27 15.96 23.1%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.66 9.23 43.5%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.41 9.48 62.6%
30.22%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg
16

Our basket average dropped by around 2% and our lead against the GDX benchmark dropped
by 1.4%, even though there were more winners (GOLD, AEM, PAAS, EGO, DPMLF, WDOFF)
than losers (NEM, FNV, LUGDF, HL). That’s because nine out of the ten moves were small in
nature, with lows of max negative 2.2% and highs of max 1.8%. The exception was Lundin
Gold (LUG.to, LUGDF), which dropped a cool 10.3% and we discuss that a little below. The
1.4% lost isn’t much of a worry though, as we’re just two weeks from the finishing line and that
sort of lead doesn’t evaporate, in fact we’re on course for the biggest win over the benchmark
since this segment began in 2016. Onward.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60% comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Lundin Gold (LUG.to) (LUGDF): So much for all the plaudits and hype I the LUG’s way in
IKN812, as last week it couldn’t catch a bid in a
bucket and gave back all the gains and more. The
new noise about South Bonza and the discovery of
mineralization that could potentially replace FDN
ounces (though at lower grades) is all well and
good, but there’s fundamental valuation to take into
account on a quarterly basis and at this level, the
12X PE we targeted at the end of Q3, around U$24,
is looking like a natural limit price for the moment.
So LUG dropped by almost 10%, by far the biggest
mover on our list in either direction, and the hype
wore off. Still an excellent company and now putting
in the last days of a year to remember for all shareholders, but now priced accordingly.
Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO.to) (WDOFF): Reportedly, though I haven’t seen the whole
note, Jeremy Mosher at NBF National Bank picked up on the “New Gold To Buy Wesdome” we
scuttlebutt we ran with last weekend in a note to clients last week and mentioning your author
to open up the analysis. The way he hung the discussion on somebody else’s first word (i.e.
mine) is typical of brokerage guy who cannot start the
rumour themselves, but can respond and comment on
something he may well have heard in other places
once the subject is broached. That’s a mouthful of
words to say Mosher at NBF has probably heard the
same jungledrums and used the opportunity to add his
voice to the conversation.
Anyway, if it wasn’t for that it was for other reasons,
but WDO continued in a clear accumulation pattern, as
seen in this ten-day chart that’s not difficult to
interpret. Profit-takers did they thing when gold got
weaker, but before that anything gold (or the GDX)
did, WDO did better. Somebody out there likes this stock at this price a lot.
17
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8 ht51
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2%
0%
ikn -2%
gdx control
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
source: IKN calcs -16%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8 ht51
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

The TinyCaps List
After 50 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 21.90% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 252.95 16.44 0.065 0.0%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 86.798 34.72 0.40 196.3%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 39.58 0.37 117.6%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 19.52 0.13 -27.8%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 4.43 0.05 -50.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 96.476 8.20 0.085 13.3%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 7.48 0.105 -19.2%
South Star STS.v 0.750 52.64 27.90 0.53 -29.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 288.518 27.41 0.095 5.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 15.98 0.135 12.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 21.90%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The 2024 basket is stumbling and staggering toward TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
the finish line, giving up plenty of the ground gained 90%
mid-year as the world closes out its 2024 trades and 80%
70%
turns spec into cash. Last week saw just one winner, 60%
so a rousing hoorah for Surge Copper (SURG.v) and 50%
40%
its half cent gain. Two others were unchanged on 30%
20%
the week (BAY.v, DMX.v) and that means seven
10%
losers, including the largest drops suffered by 0%
Palamina Corp (PA.v down 19.2%) and Kirkland LDC
(KLDC.v down 16.7%).
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): A mini-round trip completed, as Friday’s drop saw ARIC back at
the 40c baseline gap-fill level we saw last month. Which doesn’t surprise much, but by the
same token this smacks of tax loss selling and there’s an obvious floor level here, so if next
week sees further selling pressure you should put this one on your list of explorecos likely to
pop back hard once TLS season closes.
In its latest literature, ARIC seems to be changing
the narrative for Odienné to “Charger high grade but
small, so let’s look at the other targets for the
multimillion ounces you want” and that’s fair
enough, but its also underscores the difference in
expectation between last March and today, back
when Charger “could be anything” and speculators
were happily dreaming in print online. For what it’s
worth, I’m fine about the company focusing on the
BBM target and if possible, delineating a large,
18
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8 ht51
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

potentially open-pittable resource at the grades we’ve seen from that zone to date. It’s also
totally fair game to see them begin to expand the exploration project and start generating drill
targets at some of its other, 100% owned targets (and leave Newmont to fund the
development of what they’ve found to date). There’s plenty of exploration upside here and the
locality has already shown what it can deliver from the drill bit, so taking a position at these
levels and then letting it ride into 2025 until the next phases of drilling give results doesn’t
sound like the worst strategy ever. However, its also clear that the hype around ARIC and its
vociferous and enthusiastic fan club means that selling these shares will be every bit as
important in 2025 than buying them. If good results come its way next year, overbought spikes
are a near-guarantee.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): PA gave us more drill assays from its Usicayos project in South Peru
last week (12) and the headline numbers…
Palamina Drills 0.72 GPT Gold over 52 Metres Including 2.59 GPT Gold Over 8 Metres
at the Usicayos Gold Project in Peru
…looked better than the first round of drills, but as the chart shows here, by the end of the
week PA was plumbing new recent lows. That’s because there’s not much grade left over once
you back out the 8m of 2.6 g/t gold and even the sweet part of the assay is not massively
robust for a projected UG operation in a virgin zone of Peru. Once you combine a theoretically
economic 2m of 5g/t gold contained in a marginally economic 8m of 2.59 g/t gold and wrapped
is a clearly uneconomic halo and there’s nothing much to write home about from
As recently as IKN807 dated November 3rd, PA.v was still up over 80% on the year and here
were are today, with red ink next to its name. A salutary reminder that these stocks are some
of the most volatile trades in the investment world, so treat them accordingly.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Brazil: Lula da Silva is unwell
A story that came from left-field to dominate LatAm politics last week, President Lula da Silva
was today Sunday released from hospital after spending the week mostly ICU after brain
bleeding was discovered. The injury dates back to late October when Lula reportedly fell and
banged in his while at home. He then suffered an increasingly painful headache, was carted off
to hospital last week for tests and immediately underway two emergency surgeries. Here’s
Reuter’s with the latest (13):
RIO DE JANEIRO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Doctors discharged Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva from a Sao Paulo hospital on Sunday, after a pair of emergency surgeries last week to treat
and prevent bleeding in his head.
19

The 79-year-old leftist leader also spoke publicly for the first time at a hospital press conference,
appearing upbeat wearing a hat and gesturing frequently with his hands as he talked. He
stressed that he was eager to get back to work as soon as possible, which his medical team said
they approved, along with advice to avoid long-haul international flights until further notice and
exercise for up to a month.
"I'm here, whole," Lula said after spending most of last week at Sao Paulo's Sirio-Libanes
Hospital, where he had been receiving care. "I'm healed. I just need to take care of myself."
Not just Brazil, all of South America has been talking about Lula’s sudden health issue and what
it might mean. For the national case, please find below in Appendix 1 a paste-out of a Financial
Times story published today Sunday (14) that does a good job of collating the angles and
asking opinions of some of the right people, as well as noting that Lula’s VP, Geraldo Alckmin,
would represent a clear shift to the political right if he were to inherit the Presidency. A long-
time Lula adversary, Alckmin joined forces with him in 2022 to help defeat the hard right wing
Jair Bolsonaro and since then has done a reasonable job of being the respectful Veep, but if
Lula resigned or became too ill to continue, he’d be another clear move to the right for the
entire region. We’ve already mentioned on several occasions about the right sift in South
America and how the election wins of Gabril Boric (Chile) and Gustavo Petro (Colombia) marked
the high water point for the Left, since then we’ve seen country after country shift to the right
and both Chile and Colombia are likely to move back at least toward the political centre, if not
to a clear right wing, when they have their next votes (Chile this time next year). With “Lula Is
Unwell”, the left wing risks losing its key support figure and accelerating the right shift.
We are of course happy to hear Lula has been discharged from hospital and how he has vowed
to get back to work and continue as President, but that’s far from the last we’ll hear of this
subject. Any time a 79 year old who needs two emergency procedures is a serious moment, be
that person Head of State or not, and Lula may be discharged this weekend but he’s certainly
not out of the woods. This turn of events in South America’s biggest economy (by far*) carries
with it the potential to change the political make-up of the entire region.
*Context: the GDP of Argentina is less than the GDP of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Now add the other 25 states as
well as DF Brasilia.
Argentina: Exploration investment grows thanks to copper
Last weekend in “Argentina’s mining sector growth stalls” we noted how employment in
Argentina’s mining sector had topped out and even started a slightly decrease on a Year-over-
Year (YoY) basis for the first time in nearly four years, mostly due to the drop in investment in
the country’s large lithium projects. This weekend we bring better news with a focus on
exploration-only investment. According to the Argentine Exploration Companies Group (Grupo
de Empresas Exploradoras de la Argentina, known as GEMERA and headed by current McEwen
Copper country manager Michael Medina), FDI in Argentine mine exploration rose by 15.7%
compared to 2023, reaching a total investment of U$493.4m this year. If confirmed by
international bodies, that would put Argentina 6th on the world league table for mining
exploration dollars and notably in front of big mining destinations such as Peru and Brazil (the
top five being Canada, Australia, The USA, Chile and Mexico).
It’s all about copper and San Juan too, the nation’s favoured jurisdiction getting U$268.6m of
the above total and according to GEMERA (15) (translated):
“Growth is mainly driven by projects focused on copper, confirming it as the most attractive
mineral in Argentina, covering 54.4% of the total. In contrast, provinces such as Catamarca,
Salta and Jujuy saw reductions in the funds allocated to lithium exploration, due to the fall in
the prices of this natural resource.”
So now you know. New record in exploration dollars in the new best place to go mining in
LatAm and it’s all thanks to the big copper plays along the sweet spot of the Andean cordillera.
Peru: The shadow of Antauro
The Peruvian establishment’s campaign to stop Antauro Humala from running in the 2026
election had a setback last week, when Congress failed to pass the constitutional reform that
would have impeded anyone with a prior sentence for serious crimes such as terrorism to run
20

for the highest office in the land. The bill (16) got 64 votes, not even a simple majority of the
130 seat Congress, let alone the 2/3rds majority (87 votes) needed for Constitutional reform. A
couple of months ago the current Boluarte government and its allies managed to ban his
political party on what amounts to a technicality, but that won’t stop him from forming a
political alliance with an established party and becoming a candidate.
We’ve noted the rise of Antauro’s political stock in Peru for over a year and he is undoubtedly
popular in the provinces, where the populace is sick and tired of the samo samo corrupt Lima
politicking and is ready to vote up a extremist populist [sidebar: This weekend, (17) pollster
Datum for Peru’s newspaper of record, El Comercio, put Dina Boluarte’s approval rating at 3%
(three percentage) and active disapproval at 95%]. Last time around is was Pedro Castillo, who
became the “none of the above” choice without much charisma or political presence and with
the polemic Keiko Fujimori apparently keen to run again, the door may be open for Antauro, a
real revolutionary candidate with the swagger and grassroots following to match. Those on the
outside looking in might applause Antauro Humala’s “Drain The Swamp” type message and
political ambitions but be clear, this is no Make Peru Great Again populism, this guy is far more
dangerous and is bad news squared. We’re still early in this cycle and the real effects of a
potential Antauro run at the big job aren’t likely to show in the numbers of anything exposed to
Peru until the end of next year (minimum), but it’s one that anyone with a long-term position in
anything Peruvian should keep in mind as 2025 rolls out.
Market Watching
Torex Gold (TXG.to) and its suspended operations
We documented the trials and tribulations of Torex Gold (TXG.to) in IKN812 last weekend in the
Regional Politics note, “Mexico: Torex Gold (TXG.to) and a fatal accident of consequence”,
coverage that included the on-again-off-again
messages about production and suspension at its
ELG mine in Guerrero after the deaths from
carbon monoxide inhalation of three of its
workforce (two direct, one contractor) as well as
the serious health issues faced by a fourth person.
Therefore and for the record, even though TXG
dropped by 9.2% in the lapse Monday close to
Friday close (i.e. before the second suspension
had been announced, see chart right), I’m
surprised it’s not down by more.
The current suspension has come down from the
highest level of Mexican Federal (not State)
bureaucracy and from what we can gather this weekend, the investigation is going to go into
every nook and cranny of TXG’s operations. Indeed, the head of the Section 17 union with
members working at the mine, one Roberto Hernández, had plenty to say about the way
operations are managed. This Spanish language report has plenty of details (8), we’ll just go
with the title and subhead as they give the right flavour:
The Deaths at Torex Gold, a Demonstration of the Lack of
Guarantees in Canadian Mining Companies, Says Union
The head of the Section 17 union, Roberto Hernández, said that the sub-contraction of
workers who do not enjoy the same benefits under the law continues unabated. He
believes that if the case is fully investigated and the government acts accordingly, it will
lead to “An enormous fine that could even lead to the closure of the mine.”
In its NR on Monday evening announcing the new suspension of operations, TXG stated that
“Full year 2024 production guidance and the Media Luna Project schedule are unchanged.” At
some point in the week ahead we’ll find out how long the company expects the current Federal
government level investigation to to continue and whether it still believes its Q4 will be
21

unaffected. We should also consider issues knocking on to 1q25. There’s plenty of room for
another negative surprise for this stock at these levels and on balance, risk is clearly to the
downside.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) files its quarter
We’ve had RPX on the Watch List since May 2024 and IKN781 and since September it’s Without
much fuss or announcement, our small (so far) speculation on gold exploration in central
Canada, Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), filed its 1q25 financials last week (its financial year ends
July 31st, therefore its Q1 ends October 31st and we get the chance to compare our
guesstimates as made the last time we took a closer look at the company in IKN798 (the
resource update edition) and IKN799 dated September 8th (the decision to buy on news of the
placement).
The TL:DR on that is “We got fairly close”, as the placement went according to plan and as
expected, RPX today is in good financial shape to do whatever it wants to do in 2025. However,
there are some differences between our guesstimates and reality, that’s what we’re focusing on
today.
First up, we were close on our pro-forma forecast of shares out. You may remember the
September placement was a mix of hard dollar, flow-thru and charity flow thru and it wasn’t
easy to work out how many shares they’d finally sell, but we best guessed 291-9m S/O by end
October 2024. That’s turned into a reality of 292.302m and I’ll give myself a passing score for
that one:
New RPX.v: Shares Out
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
22
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO tse52.naJ tse52.rpA
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
In general terms RPX’s financial development is how it was expected, with the cash injection,
the fixed assets priced close to zero (Wawa is expensed) and low overall liabilities that are
basically normal going concern a/cs payable.
RPX.v: Assets, per qtr
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
However, in both IKN798 and IKN799 I overestimated the rate of cash burn we’d see in the last
part of 2024. Back then we expected cash to come in at C$8.5m as at quarter end October 31st,
but the reality (below left) is cash treasury at C$9.631m as at October 31st and working cap
(below right) at C$8.369m.
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO
$m RPX.v: Liabilities per qtr
3
2.5
fixed
2 other current
cash
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs

That’s about C$1.3m more than I’d bargained for and the reason shows in this next chart:
Wawa expenses, per qtr
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
23
12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO
12 RPX.v: Cash treasury per qtr
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
C$m
Drilling etc Compensation
Camp Other
source: company filings
Since the Quentin Yarie assay salting issue erupted early year, we’ve seen two things happen:
Firstly the quarter to April saw more expenses than expected as RPX dealt with the scandal,
with extra drilling to re-check results and other expenses up sharply, presumably legal beagles
and consultants brought in to help fix the mess. Then with the arrival of new CEO Michaud and
his team, a second phase of low burn began and that’s carried on for longer than I’d
anticipated. There has been some drilling done, but clearly the new team has stepped back and
taken the time to re-assess what Wawa is and what it has to offer, not just by re-working the
data. We know they have been doing baseline geological work that’s more boot leather than
diamond drill, and an advantage of that is the lower costs involved. Indeed, the C$1.121m
expensed to the Wawa project in the most recent quarter is the lowest spend since 2020, when
the project was all-but shut down during the Covid fun’n’games. Long story short, RPX has over
a million more in treasury than I’d previously modeled and that’s good news, as it’s more dry
powder to use on the 2025 development plan.
As seen in the above charts, I’ve extrapolated out for the next three quarters using reasonable
assumptions and even with an expected acceleration in drilling once warm weather returns to
the region, the company is in good financial shape for at least those quarters and it wouldn’t be
much of a shock to see it run the entirety of 2025 on its current treasury. However, the pattern
also suggests they’ll go back to market before treasury depletes completely, so let’s pencil in a
next raise in the classic miner financing window,
around/after Labor Day USA, September or
October 2025.
Before wrapping up, one more chart (right), an
alternative way of valuing RPX at the moment is to consider the cumulative dollar spend on the
project over the years, as one could reasonably
assume backers would want to see at least that
(repeat, AT LEAST) from any eventual
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO tse52.naJ tse52.rpA tse52.yluJ
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
10 RPX.v: Working Capital per qtr
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO tse52.naJ tse52.rpA tse52.yluJ
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
RPX: Wawa cumulative spend, per qtr
104.04 314.14 959.14 296.24 464.34 948.34 30.44
955.65 245.85 742.06 348.26 644.66 572.07 646.27 867.47 534.67 222.97 141.28 629.48 850.98 657.09 778.19
100
90
80
70
60
50 40
30
20
10
0
91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ 42.rpA 42yluJ 42.tcO
C$m
source: company filings

agreement to sell Wawa/RPX. The quarter ended April 2021 marks the time when RPX gained
100% ownership and the value of its participation jumped accordingly, since then expenditures
have been regular and as at end October 2024, come to almost C$92m. With 292.3m shares
out, that works out at 31.4c/share and while a rather crude valuation method, it does set a
target price that any buyer would need to at least keep in mind before making their offer (and
if they try to lowball that figure, they’ll surely expect it to come up in the consequent
conversations). While my own asset-based valuation put a 20c first-base target on the stock in
September and I’m happy to stick with that, the eventual 30c level is reasonable and if Alamos
ever decides it’s done with waiting and is willing to pay up to beat Wesdome to the punch,
that’s a price I’d want to see. It also implies a 150% win
from current levels, that’s the prize for us speculators.
Bottom line: Zero issues with the financial situation at
RPX, in fact treasury position at C$9.6m end October is
significantly better than I’d anticipated. RPX is in good
shape for 2025, from here it’s all about placing a bet on
the Michaud-led brains trust and allowing them to get on
with the job of adding value. Happy holder of Red Pine
Exploration and, as mentioned on far too many
occasions in the last month or so, it’s one I’ll be adding
to in the near future at these prices. We leave you with
a look at the 12-month price chart and a reminder that
there’s still plenty of room for tax loss selling in this stock in 2024. We shall see if it happens.
Conclusion
That’s all for IKN813, we close with a couple of bullet points:
 I’m not going to miss out on Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO) again, this set-up screams a
lot and as long as copper doesn’t fall off a cliff, once 2024 is done and the world sees
(or remembers) what ERO’s 2025 and beyond look like, this share price will be past
history. Excellent asymmetric risk from here.
 Minera Alamos (MAI.v) is still on probation as Top Pick and has to deliver what we
expect from it in Q4 from Santana and then wrap up the Sabre acquisition with no
issues or hiccups. It’s back to being a drudge to hold in December, but the time of year
probably has as much to do with the price weakness as anything else, at least in the
near-term.
 I’ve steered clear of talking too much about silver this week, predicting that metal with
any great certainty is like predicting the next gust of wind. I’m certainly bullish on its
outlook, but timing and volatility will always play a big part in its trading.
 It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas. Just two weeks to go before the end of the
year (in weekends count, at least) and the waiting for the best price window is nearly
over. The last couple of editions have marked something of a calm before the storm
but we’ve tried to keep it useful and proactive, for example with the set-up for a trade
in ERO coming soon and the continued heavy hints about Red Pine (RPX.v), Aftermath
Silver (AAG.v and others. If you feel like getting in front of me on any of those trades,
be my guest.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
24

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://erocopper.com/news/ero-copper-reports-third-quarter-2024-operating-and-financial-results/
(2) https://www.provenancegold.com/20241209-provenance-gold-drills-3.07-gt-gold-over-175.26m-including-21.7-gt-
gold-over-6.10m-at-eldorado
(3) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-secures-option-to-acquire-key-tenements-adjacent-to-berg-
project/
(4) https://liberocopper.com/_resources/news/nr-20241212.pdf
(5) https://www.eldoradogold.com/investors/news-releases/eldorado-gold-releases-updated-mineral-reserve-and-
mineral-resource-2
(6) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-jumps-to-approach-one-month-high-on-china-hopes
(7) https://copperindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/ICA-India-Annual-Copper-Demand-Study-Infographic-FY24.pdf
(8) https://www.coppercouncil.org/iwcc-statistics-and-data
(9) https://www.mining.com/web/column-icsg-forecasts-copper-supply-pressures-but-cautious-on-demand/
(10) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/el-proyecto-altar-inaugura-su-nueva-oficina-en-barreal/
(11) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-achieves-average-of-87-extraction-rates-of-soluble-
copper-in-the-enriched-material/
(12) https://www.palamina.com/news/2024/12/9/6t4kibjlb1a7x4whr0n8smd5dzpiyy
(13) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-leave-hospital-speaks-publicly-first-time-since-surgeries-2024-
12-15/
(14) https://www.ft.com/content/9f5a27a2-a94d-4b4b-b0bd-1c2395f7c6b1
(15) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/2024-cifras-record-de-la-exploracion-minera-en-la-argentina-san-juan-al-frente/
(16) https://larepublica.pe/politica/congreso/2024/12/13/congreso-no-logra-aprobar-ley-que-impide-postular-a-antauro-
humala-y-otros-sentenciados-en-las-elecciones-generales-del-2026-1022268?
(17) https://rpp.pe/politica/gobierno/encuesta-datum-aprobacion-de-la-presidenta-dina-boluarte-se-mantiene-en-3-
noticia-1604632
Appendix 1: FT report on Lula da Silva, dated December 15th
For more than 30 years Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been the standard-bearer of the Brazilian left, forged as
a strike leader during the country’s dictatorship and three times elected president of what became Latin
America’s largest democracy.
But a health scare has forced supporters of the 79-year-old to consider what might come after the end of his
political career, which has taken a shoeshine boy born in rural poverty to the role of global statesman.
Lula, as he is universally known, was rushed from Brasília by plane on Monday night to São Paulo for
emergency surgery, after an MRI scan revealed a brain bleed caused by a fall at his home in October.
After the initial operation, which involved making a small hole into the skull to drain a haematoma, the
leftwinger underwent a second, “low risk” procedure on Thursday to prevent further haemorrhages.
Doctors said Lula was recovering well, with no cerebral damage. He was discharged on Sunday morning, two
days after leaving intensive care. “As I thought I was healed [after the earlier fall], I confess that I got a bit
frightened,” Lula said through tears, wearing a fedora, in a press conference.
Still, the incident has stirred doubts over the physical condition of the divisive politician, who is equally loved
and loathed in his homeland — along with a debate on whether he will, or should, stand for re-election in
2026.
“For at least the next two years, Brazil will need to deal openly and responsibly with the issue of [Lula’s]
health — and his age,” read an editorial in the Estado de S. Paulo newspaper.
“What will be at stake is whether Lula has the health and lucidity compatible with the immense challenges
ahead of him.”
The situation has drawn comparisons with US President Joe Biden, 82, who abandoned a re-election bid this
year following intense scrutiny over his age and medical fitness. Biden’s incoming successor, 78-year-old
Donald Trump, has faced similar questions.
While Lula recently told CNN he would only decide on his electoral plans closer to the time, close allies insist
he will be on the ticket for his Workers’ party, or PT, in 2026.
“It was worrying of course, but today Lula is our candidate for 2026. There is no plan B,” Gleisi Hoffmann, PT
president, told the Financial Times. “If we start to think about [alternatives], then it will send out the wrong
signal.
“But clearly, the party has to start preparing, because in 2030 we’re going to need a qualified leader.”
25

Lula inspires deep reverence among his followers but has not cultivated any obvious successors, presenting
the risk of a vacuum at the top of the movement he founded in the 1980s.
According to party insiders, options include finance minister Fernando Haddad, who lost the 2018
presidential race to far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro, and education minister Camilo Santana.
Yet none possess Lula’s popular appeal. Acclaimed internationally for reducing poverty during his first stint in
power, from 2003 to 2011, the former metalworker returned last year vowing to boost living standards and
save the Amazon rainforest.
In a survey by Quaest/Genial conducted before Lula’s hospitalisation, more than half of respondents said
they believed the president should not run again. However, the poll also found that Lula would defeat
rightwing challengers for the presidency.
In private, senior PT figures are downbeat about the party’s prospects if he is not on the ballot. That reflects
the weakened state of Brazil’s left, following a conservative backlash in the wake of corruption controversies
and an economic crisis the last time it was in power.
Lula’s narrow victory in 2022 over the incumbent Bolsonaro was only thanks to a big-tent coalition backed by
moderate voters keen to kick out the brash Christian nationalist.
Bruno Carazza, professor at the Dom Cabral Foundation, said past graft scandals had removed potential
heirs to Lula.
“The PT has succession and generational problems,” he added. “And it has faced many difficulties to get big
city mayors and state governors elected in the last decade.”
Lula ended his first presidency with record approval ratings. But the country went on to suffer its worst
recession under his handpicked successor, Dilma Rousseff, who was impeached.
In a dramatic downfall, Lula himself was found guilty of money laundering and corruption in 2017 and spent
more than a year and a half in jail. The convictions were later overturned, paving the way for his comeback.
Since being admitted for the unplanned surgery, Lula has not taken formal leave from his role nor temporarily
transferred the presidency to his deputy, Geraldo Alckmin. He has been in telephone contact with ministers
and advisers, according to a person familiar with the matter, who said he was “not impeded” from carrying out
his job.
“Every Brazilian is wondering whether the president is able to govern,” said Adriana Ventura, a lawmaker with
the opposition Novo party. “If he is not, he should let the vice-president govern.”
Traditionally on the centre-right, Alckmin belongs to a different party and was once an adversary of Lula, who
defeated him in the 2006 presidential election. Selected in a bid to broaden Lula’s appeal, he is considered
business-friendly and has served as governor of São Paulo, Brazil’s most populous and richest state.
Following Lula’s slip in his bathroom, causing a wound that required several stitches, the head of state had
already scaled back a normally busy international travel agenda.
A former smoker and throat cancer survivor fond of physical exercise, Lula had a hip replacement last year. A
person close to the president said he was in good health in spite of the latest episode.
The medical team described the risk of further bleeding as “statistically negligible” after the follow-up
procedure, and recommended rest in the coming weeks.
They said Lula can resume normal work activities but is to avoid long-haul international flights and exercise,
except walking. He should remain in São Paulo until at least Thursday, they said.
Eduardo Grin, professor of politics at Getúlio Vargas Foundation, said comparisons with Biden were
“exaggerated”. “Most of the speculation about Lula’s health has come from the financial market, which is
opposed to his economic policy.”
The issue comes at a delicate moment for the government, as investor concerns over Brazil’s public finances
and inflation have hammered its exchange rate. Ministers are rushing to obtain parliamentary approval for
spending cuts to balance the budget.
A push to eliminate the primary deficit — meaning before interest payments — by finance minister Haddad,
who many consider the favourite to succeed Lula, has displeased more leftwing PT members who resist
austerity.
“The government’s decision-making structure is quite concentrated around Lula, especially on economic
topics and critical negotiations with Congress. So the timing of his health issue is sensitive,” said Mario
Braga, geopolitical analyst at consultancy Rane.
“Since Brazil’s fiscal situation has been the main domestic driver of financial volatility, Lula’s absence in
Brasília could fuel uncertainty and sour investors’ mood further,” he added.
For the veteran leftist’s devotees, the episode has brought home his mortality. Denise Forganes, from an
industrial suburb of São Paulo where Lula made his name as a trade unionist in the 1970s, said his eventual
departure would be a “tragedy”.
“I hope the Workers’ party can come together even without him. There are other possible names. But I don’t
have much hope without Lula.”
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
30