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The IKN Weekly
Week 812, December 8th 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, A day late, The IKN Weekly Christmas schedule, Silver Santa.
Fundamental Analysis: Menē Inc (MENE.v) 3q24 financials.
Stocks to Follow: Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), Surge Copper (SURG.v), Red Pine
Exploration (RPX.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Aftermath
Silver (AAG.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, American Eagle (AE.v), XXIX Metal Corp / QC Copper & Gold
(XXIX.v / QCCU.v), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to), Lundin Gold (LUG.to)
(LUGDF), Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO.to) (WDOFF).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v).
Regional Politics: Mexico: Torex Gold (TXG.to) and a fatal accident of consequence, Mexico:
Sheinbaum talks open pit mining, El Salvador: Bukele moves on his country’s mining potential
(at last), Argentina’s mining sector growth stalls, Argentina: One year of Milei.
Market Watching: AbraSilver (ABRA.v) delivers an updated PFS, Contango ORE (CTGO) drops
further.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 Today’s fundies section focuses for the first time this year on Menē Inc (MENE.v), the
only non-miner we own and cover on these pages and a small spec play that deserves
more attention. Especially now, as there are plenty of clues pointing to a new corporate
direction and focus on true profitability under its new(ish) boss. I continue to see a lot
to like in this small online retailer and hopefully in January, you’ll see why I remain
keen.
 Regional Politics does plenty of Mexico and Argentina this week, along with a decent
dash of El Salvador as that country’s media-loving President made the type of pro-
mining comments we’d been waiting to hear from him all year.
 I think AbraSilver (ABRA.v) was treated somewhat unfairly by the market last week. Its
PFS update saw capex rise sharply and that was enough to see the share price drop,
but the project and mine plan they present is improving quickly. I liked last year and
failed to trade it well, it may be worth a return visit. In Market Watching.
 Other things, too. There are always other things
A day late
Once again, I have to offer my sincere apologies for the late arrival of this weekend’s edition,
going out to you Monday evening instead of Sunday. I’d offer another bunch of weak excuses
but I think they’re wearing a little thin, so I’ll merely state that “family got in the way of work”
and leave it at that. I don’t want to make this a habit and there isn’t some sort of plan to keep
doing this, hopefully 2025 will allow me to get back to my normal rhythm of work. Also and
finally, please note that all closing prices pertain to the weekend, not today Monday.
1

The IKN Weekly Christmas schedule
A brief word on something we normally do but are not doing this year. The normal schedule for
The IKN Weekly over the Christmas period is to run at least one and sometimes two “bare
bones” editions, that cover the basics and the price moves for the weeks in question but not
much else. This year there are no plans for any bare bones editions, as Christmas Day (and
therefore New Year’s Day 2025 as well) falls on a Wednesday, the least disruptive day for a
weekend writer possible, though to be fair a lack of news my make IKN814 scheduled for
December 22nd and IKN815 scheduled for December 29th a little thinner than normal.
While we’re here, after collating your suggestions, pitting them against my own short list and
(nearly, not quite) making the final decisions, IKN815 will run with the new make-ups for the
2025 Copper, Producer and TinyCaps Baskets. As usual, it’ll be out with the old and a write up
on the reasons for keeping the ones we keep, as well as outlines for the new companies coming
in and the reasons for the choices. Thank you again for your mails and suggestions, there were
plenty and for what it’s worth this year the bulk of suggestions were for the Copper Basket,
which is interesting in itself.
Silver Santa
The IKN Weekly does not cover or recommend large cap mining stocks and we’re not the place
to go for metals market advice, either. However, we follow both subjects with at least one eye
because of their obvious importance to the main focus of this publication, the junior explorecos,
developers and operators. The metals tend to elicit comments in the intro (and copper in its
own dedicated section), while the Producer Basket exists to keep an eye on what the big boys
and girls are up to. And occasionally the two subjects combine, which is why this little intro
section exists today.
Last week saw the lack of love for gold miners continue and while it wasn’t a wholesale rush for
the door, the lack of interest from buyers was palpable (and not helped by more negative
headlines from media darling Barrick, see below). But the 2024 Producer Basket has its quota of
silver exposure, a deliberate decision made at the start of the year because I thought it was
time gold’s ginger-haired stepbrother did something for a change. It’s been a mixed bag for the
first 11 months but last week saw clear evidence of silver getting more love than gold. Not only
did the lesser of the two metals out-trade the greater (below left), but we saw buying interest
for silver names and our examples in the Producer Basket, Pan American (PAAS) and Hecla (HL)
were just two of many and as the second of our charts (below right) demonstrates; +10% for
the main silver ETF in two weeks would be a good performance at any time, but it really
catches the eye in a period when GDX traded flat.
I’m not doing anything as stupid as “calling the bottom in silver” a widowmaker forecast if there
ever were one. Instead, we point to evidence, then point to the logic of expecting silver to out-
perform gold if the Fed’s fabled soft landing happens, then point to the calendar and suggest
that silver may be in for a bit of a near-term Santa Rally in 2024. There may not be enough to
2

break the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) under its firm 80X floor (see Producer Basket), but that’s not
the idea of highlighting silver as a potential trade today; instead we humbly offer up the idea of
silver as a reasonable risk/reward spec trade. As for ways of trading the Jekyll & Hyde metal,
I’m tempted to return and buy some Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) now that it’s back at 40c, but
that may turn out to be too cute for my own good. Instead, Aftermath Silver (AAG.v) makes
appeal and to that, today’s Market Watching section points to AbraSilver (ABRA.v), another
previous trade her eat The IKN Weekly (and a failure at that), as its PFS announcement last
week was arguably better than the reception afforded to it.
UPDATE Monday evening: The plan was not to sent out this edition a day late, but that’s how
things have fallen and on re-reading this intro after today’s silver rally, it looks way smarter
than it should. Daytrade forecasting was not part of the plan. However, we should point out
that my note on Torex Gold (TXG.to) in Market Watching doesn’t look so smart after that
company’s new this morning.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Menē Inc (MENE.v) 3q24 financials (CAD unless stated)
Deferred from last week because its financials deserved more time and space than I’d originally
allotted to them we today check out the 3q24 financials delivered by our only non-miner
company, the online 24ky gold retailer Menē Inc (MENE.v). The last time we looked at this
company was the brief overview of its 2q24 financials in the Market Watching section of
IKN794, dated August 4th, with a very brief update the next weekend about the updated
incentive options awards it had handed to its C-suite. On due consideration last weekend,
another quick’n’dirty look at the main tracking charts and a few lines wasn’t going to do the
company justice this time, so instead of rushing things, here we are today.
We start with a check on how MENE has been trading
recently and back in August, the message was that after
its big price dump that maxed out on volume, the worst
seemed to be behind the stock. We were still impressed
by how much company you were getting for the money,
with a very strong financial basis. As operations
continued to run at breakeven, this implied a set-up that
could continue indefinitely at current levels and gave the
relatively new CEO plenty to work with as he went about
making MENE leaner and meaner.
As the six month chart shows, early August was indeed
the high point for volume (as a large-ish holder finished liquidating) and the low point for the
share price, briefly trading around 8.5c and 9c and I called it what it was at the time “a very
cheap stock”. Since then we’ve seen some recovery, but the new trading range of 11c and 12c
is nobody’s ideas of a serious rally and as the chart notes, volume has dropped right back
again, making MENE unsuitable for a cheap flipper vehicle. Sp not great since Q2 but not bad
either and if we ignore the fact it’s a tinycap and we need serious percentage returns from this
kind of trade to make it interesting, it has done no better or worse in the period since August
than gold, the GDX or even the broad market SPX.
Basically, we’ve seen the calm after the selling storm US Jewelry Sales Seasonality
(source US dept of Commerce)
of the first half of 2024, it’s gone back to being Q1
ignored and ignorable. Except by nerds like me, of 19.0%
Q4
course.
39.5%
So to the Q3 numbers and while it’s tempting to add in
forecasts for the 4q24, what with it being the key
Q2
3 21.6%
Q3
19.9%

quarter for any jewelry retailer (chart above), today I’m limiting it to Q3 and the backward look,
with the explanation for that in the conclusion section. Here we begin with customer orders, the
3,811 for 3q24 showing slight improvement (they ran a sale for the first time ever). However,
units sold per customer dropped sharply to 1.02…
MENE: Customer orders, per qtr
…most likely the effect of the sale as well. Put those together and overall precious metals sales
by weight dropped to 42kg, the lowest post-Covid number. That’s no sign of growth and not a
great signal is taken in isolation, but other metrics point to this being part of the strategic and
operational changes being enacted by CEO Gladu, now in his second year of tenure. For
example grams of gold per unit has risen considerably in the last two quarters and the 3q24
number, 10.77g (over a third of an ounce) is the highest ever recorded. Taken in conjunction
with the other sales metrics, we can see that MENE is aiming to sell fewer of its smeller trinkets
and is focused on improving the size and value of individual pieces. This naturally translated
into less pieces sold, but theoretically at least, there’s less labour time per ounce and therefore
margins should improve.
Indeed, that’s what we see when we move away from measuring sales by volume and consider
the financial side (please recall, unless stated we’re in Canadian Dollars). Revenues (below left)
at C$5.388m were 25.5% higher than the same period of 2023 despite selling 3kg less gold by
weight, testimony to the rise in gold prices over the last 12 months. However, COGS (i.e. raw
material) only rose by barely rose (below right) and that means MENE improved its gross
margin substantially
4
7514 0972 4643 4745 7605 7734 3514 4856 7045 7493 5714 5946 8394 0563 5443 7974 8573 4353 1183
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000 3000 2000
1000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
MENE: Units sold per order
source: MENE filings
06.1 67.1 27.1 85.1 55.1 46.1 25.1 45.1 44.1 67.1 94.1 85.1 95.1 44.1 54.1 35.1 23.1 46.1 20.1
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
0.2
0.0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: MENE data
MENE: Precious metals sales in Kg, per qtr
96 93 65 67 97 66 26
89
08 66 65
79
37 84 54 96 54 85 24
110
100
90
80
70
60 50
40 30 20
10
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: MENE filings
)tP
ronim
htiw(
uA
gK
MENE: Avg grams Au per unit sold
93.01
39.7
04.9 08.8 60.01 71.9 18.9 66.9 72.01 15.9 00.9 44.9 72.9 21.9 20.9 04.9 40.9 00.01 77.01
12
11
10
9
8
7
6 5
4 3 2
1
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: MENE filings
uA
smarg
MENE: Revenues per qtr
751.5
934.3
324.5 11.7 302.7 457.5 813.5
894.8
643.7 158.5 50.5
566.8
251.7 389.4 392.4 268.6 928.4 464.6 883.5
10
9
8
7
6
5
4 3
2
1
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
MENE.v: Costs breakdown
C$m
source: company filings
127.1
441.4
582.1125.2
133.1
548.3
319.1
914.5
35.1
664.5
34.1
422.4
614.1
270.4
248.1
984.6
656.1
393.5
296.1
123.4
454.1
729.3
651.2
726.6
315.1
924.5
334.1
394.3
996.1
343.3
893.2
591.5
1.2
396.3
401.2
277.4
894.0
985.3
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3 2
1
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$m
COGS operating exp
source: company filings,IKN ests

Gross profit (i.e. before operating expenses) rose by 89% YoY to reach C$1.799n (below left)
and the change is best shown by the gross margin chart (below right), which hit a new record
of 33.39%. This again points us to a change in strategy at the company and what must be an
executive decision to improve margins on the previous ratios used when the company was run
by its founder. Roy Sebag. Part of Sebag’s business plan was to make jewelry with real intrinsic
and fungible value “assets one can wear” made of 24kt gold that could be sold on (or back to
the company) with little loss for the customer. That now seems to be changing and the fatter
margin indicates MENE is charging more for its workmanship and brand than before, the
customer paying a wider spread between gold scrap and the trinket bought.
There’s also clear evidence that MENE’s corporate side is getting leaner and meaner. If we
return to the costs table above, you will see a marked drop in overall operating costs in 3q24 to
just C$0.498m. That results in this chart below…
MENE.v: Operating income, per qtr
5
807.0-
763.0-
742.0
222.0-
702.0
1.0
71.0-
761.0 792.0
261.0-
133.0-
811.0-
12.0 750.0
947.0- 137.0-
469.0-
214.0-
103.1
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8 0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2 -0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
MENE.v: Gross profit
C$m
source: company filings
…operating income that set a new quarterly record of C$1.301m. Admittedly that result is
pimped by a non-cash item, as the ex-CFO extinguished C$1.003m of options on leaving the
company during the quarter and that came off the overall opex number, but that still means
MENE managed to keep operating expenses to C$1.501m, a significant improvement on recent
quarters and in real terms, that still means 3q24 was the best operating income quarter ever at
the company. Before moving on, we don’t measure this company on its net earnings (operating
profit is the best benchmark) but we note that MENE returned a net profit of C$1.318m. For
sure C$1.003m of that was the effect of the returned options, but a “real world” net of over
4200k is still a decent result, only the 5th net profit we’ve seen. And that, ladies and gents, is
very good news. For the last couple of years this small and perhaps overly patient shareholder
has waited and waited for operating margins to improve, assuming that MENE under Sebag
would expand sales, keep margins the way they were and eventually win out of volume.
Although MENE has become over time a financially stable operation, making the shift from
breakeven to truly profitable has always seemed to elude the company but now, with the new
CEO seeing the first fruits of his strategy, that’s finally arrived. It’s done so on a relatively level
of sales too, which suggests that when sales accelerate the company will be in the position to
make regular and meaningful profits.
Another place where the new CEO’s influence can be seen is the MENE inventory evolution, as
for the last four quarters its Finished Goods value has dropped significantly. This time last year
310.1 819.0 875.1 196.1 737.1 35.1 642.1 900.2 359.1 35.1 321.1 830.2 327.1 94.1 59.0 766.1 631.1 296.1 997.1
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2 1 0.8 0.6
0.4
0.2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$m MENE: Gross profit margin, per qtr
source: MENE filings, IKN ests
%02 %72 %92 %42 %42 %72 %32 %42 %72 %62 %22 %42 %42 %03 %22 %42 %42 %62 %33
35%
30%
25%
20%
15% 10%
5%
0%
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: MENE filings

MENE had built up inventory of finished goods to C$15.616m in preparation for the bust Q4
holiday season but in 2024, that’s been slashed and even in the prep quarter, finished goods
are down to C$7.334m.
MENE: Inventories per qtr
6
294.7
186.01
939.21 814.11
165.11
981.8
533.7
709.01 708.21 754.21 990.31
489.41
8.41 273.21
531.11
606.11 458.21 177.11 534.41 616.51
509.5
372.5 452.6 433.7
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10
8
6
4
2
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m
Raw Mat. Work in Prog
Finished Goods Supplies
source: company filings
This is evidence of Just In Time (JIT) stock control, with MENE now able to create its pieces
from raw materials quickly and fulfill orders from scratch more often, instead of building
inventory and selling from stock. That makes a lot of sense, firstly from the cash flow
perspective but also because previously, part of the business model involved melting down and
re-working gold if the finished pieces in question weren’t selling. It’s far more cost-effective to
be able to react to customer orders by creating from the raw material, cutting down on wasted
man hours and holding costs.
This also shows in balance sheet items, though in this case the 3q24 numbers are simple
continuation of the changes we’ve noted in previous analyses. Here the assets overview chart
shows the cash position remaining roughly constant (no liquidity problems) but inventories
down sharply and short-term investments no longer a thing. Meanwhile, liabilities have been
reduced to the bare minimum for a going concern company with zero debt on the books these
days. That’s optimum.
MENE.v: Assets, per qtr
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
To underscore the financially strong backbone of MENE, the equity/net working capital tracker
shows both lines staying at or around C$16m, despite the big corporate and operational
changes made internally. CEO Gladu is doing a
good job of implementing his plan without affecting
the solid core of the company.
Discussion and conclusion
With 260.296m shares out and a share price of 12c
this weekend, MEBNE currently runs a market cap
of C$31.24m (U$22.5m) and it’s at this point I
reiterate the message at the end of the brief
overview of the Q2 numbers in IKN794, “you’re
getting a lot for your money at these prices.”
However, this time we’re in a new and better
position with a company that hasn’t just talked
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
MENE.v: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
$m
cash inventories ST Inv other
source: company filings, IKN ests
143.9 659.9 515.01 792.01 714.9 76.9 119.9 124.01 689.01 395.01 719.11 474.11 484.21 277.9 847.9
0 0
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8 6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
note payable
other liab
borrowings
MENE: Equity vs Net working capital
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m
Equity
net working cap
source: company filings

about corporate level improvement in the quarters since the new CEO took over. The changes
are now showing in the quarterly numbers, with lower costs and better margins on a new focus
of larger sized pieces. And that’s all very promising as we move into the quarter that matters,
as the structural changes are now ready to work on the larger sales volumes and revenues flow
we always see during Q4. To that end, some of the words of CEO Vincent Gladu in the Q3 NR
(1) are worthy of consideration:
“Our focus remains on completing the operational transformation we began undertaking
around this time last year, transforming the business into a much leaner and scalable
operating model that will deliver long-term, sustainable, and profitable growth. We
continue building Menē into a brand that will endure the test of time, and whose focus is
on unparalleled craftsmanship and customer service, rather than on market trends and
other extrinsic factors.”
That’s clearly not just talk. MENE is demonstrably leaner on the cost side these days, carrying
lower metal inventory in its finished goods and a precious metals supply that delivers just-in-
time (JIT), cutting the financial drag. It’s also more clearly aimed at profitable growth, with
margins that have suddenly popped higher, allowing the company to run at a true operating
profit this quarter, even on the low Q3 sales numbers. All this makes the current quarter and
the period in which we find ourselves today, Christmas and the holiday season, as a key
moment in its trajectory. That’s not to say other Q4’s weren’t important as well, as the
company has run between 30% and 35% of its gross annual sales during Q4.
We’re about to get an acid test of the new model at MENE if my suspicions bear out, a
company that will show true and meaningful profits for the first time. I’ve steered away from
offering any 4q24 forecasts in the above chart because it all depends on whether this new
MENE approach can convert into the same level of sales we’ve seen in previous holiday season
quarters, but if we estimate C$8m in gross sales and the company sticks to the new 33% gross
margin, that’s C$2.64m in gross margin and a likely profit of C$1m. Do that a couple of times
and then start growing from the base it’s created and a U$22.5m market cap for a retailer with
rock solid financial backing and no end of upside growth potential (as the world starts buying
expensive things again) looks small indeed.
The key moment should come in early January, as MENE in previous years has pre-empted the
long wait for Q4 financials by offering a pre-announcement on sales for the period. Anything at
of around C$8m in sales would mean this company is now real profit-maker and would provide
the missing piece of the puzzle to rally its stock price from whence it came in 2022 and 2023.
As such, the recommendation is to hold (or buy some cheap shares as a spec) then look out for
the Q4 sales NR. The advantage of a spec run in MENE is that its financials are in such good
shape that even if the new CEO doesn’t make the impression I think he’s about to make on its
financial performance, there’s very little downside potential at current prices. MENE isn’t going
anywhere and has shown it can tread water indefinitely, but its new CEO has now tweaked the
model enough to change breakeven into profitable. Once that happens, they can add growth to
the mix and start setting the online jewelry market on fire. Call me obstinate, but this continues
to be a highly attractive speculation and a company I’m willing to sponsor with my money, so
once the locks come off my personal portfolio treasury position and I start buying again
(anytime after Christmas, I expect to add another tranche or two to my slowly growing (but still
small) MENE holding and average down a little further.
Stocks to Follow
If we include the newly added Surge Copper (SURG.v) and the newly sold Aldebaran Resources
(ALDE.v) we get to 17 names on the Stocks to Follow list and of those, just four were winners
on the week (RIO.v, PGZ.v, POCI.v, MENE.v) and of those, an extra cheer for the 16.7% rally in
Pan Global (PGZ.v). There was one unchanged stock (MIRL.cse), that leaves a full dozen losers
including the abovementioned pair as well as the biggest mover of the week in percentage
terms, Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v down 25.0%). The other big dropper was Aldebaran (ALDE.v
down 9.1%) and we got out before the worst prices. So I got that going for me, which is nice.
7

We’re currently have 16 names in the Stocks to Follow list four fewer than our self-imposed
maximum number. Just seven stocks are in the green, while nine are in the red and that’s the
wrong balance.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.29 38.1% $0.70 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.64 -20.0% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$15.83 -4.4% undervalued midcap gold
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.63 5.8% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.64 52.1% Quality Cu developer
Red Pine Expl RPX.v ADDING C$0.105 8-Sep-24 C$0.12 14.3% New sm position, will build
Libero Copper LBC.v SPEC BUY C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.335 -1.5% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.105 -44.6% Cu jr, disappointing to date
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.07 16.7% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.235 -21.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.03 50.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Aftermath Silver AAG.v WATCH $0.46 10-Nov-24 C$0.455 -1.1% Silver exploreco, nice project
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH $0.095 1-Dec-24 C$0.09 -5.3% bulk copper in good address
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.27 217.6% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.12 -75.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Dec'24 C$0.72 16-May-21 C$2.11 193.1% closed trade, took profits
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): POSITION CLOSED. As planned, I sold into the market
last week and this position is now officially closed, both on the list and in my personal portfolio.
I didn’t quite get the 200%+ price I was looking for and in a dash of irony, could have done
just that if I’d been an early Monday seller. However, our forecast of volumes tailing off turned
out to be right and ALDE ended up limping into this weekend, only saved from a sub-C$2 finish
by a small-scale buyer Friday afternoon.
8

It took its sweet time, but ALDE turned out to be a
good trade. We’ll keep our eye on the stock as the
next round of potential price catalysts show up,
starting with drill assay results from the ongoing
program (less likely to move the market now), then
initial Nuton test results in early 2025 (that could
move the market but I’m not sure), then the next
real milestone moment when ALDE delivers its PEA
mid-2025. There may be a profitable trade to make
around that date, so it’s in the diary.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. As threatened last weekend in IKN811,
SURG is now on the main Stocks to Follow table as a target stock for a trade and be in no
doubt, I’m looking to open real coverage on this stock in the near future as long as
circumstances are right. As for trading, SURG fiddled around on low volume and tried to trade
over 10c for a while. Even with the well-documented recent insider purchases, there isn’t much
upside impetus in this stock at the moment and it remains unloved by a world that only has
eyes for NAK. The bet I’m willing to make is that things will change in 2025 and Ootsa will get
more respect as the world wakes up and realizes the grades at AE.v are essentially the grades
at SURG.v, with the main difference between the companies shares that are four times cheaper
in one compared to the other.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): MAY STILL ADD, BUT.... but…but…I’m a whuss. RPX
continues to wheel around this current 12c price and adds to the feeling that there’s no big rush
to get in here. Canadian Tax Loss Selling season hasn’t been mentioned as much in this edition
as IKN811 last weekend but it’s still a clear influence on stock prices for the next couple of
weeks and in the case of RPX and its waterfall drop in Q1, there’s still the potential that selling
wave hits the stock and pushes prices down to seriously cheap levels. Watching on the sidelines
with plenty of cash on hand.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): When you go into a fliptrade in a stock that’s intentionally and
specifically run to enrich and benefit insiders first and anyone lese second, you know there are
outside risks involved. Here, in the case of LBC, we bought in on the news that the company
was indeed drilling a real hole or two at its main Mocoa project in Colombia and the trade set-
up was simplicity itself from the word go:
 Buy low
 Wait for the drill results to start and the hype to run
 Sell high
 Walk away
As capitalist is it comes in this sector, a straightforward trade set up based on what we know
about the LBC people and their dark ways, what could possibly go wrong? Here’s what (2):
VANCOUVER, BC – December 2, 2024 – Libero Copper & Gold Corporation (TSXV: LBC) (OTCQB:
LBCMF) (DE: 29H) ("Libero" or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an
agreement with Research Capital Corporation as the sole agent and sole bookrunner (the “Agent”), in
connection with a marketed, public offering of units of the Company (the “Units”) for aggregate gross
proceeds of up to $3,000,000 (the "Offering") at a price of $0.35 per Unit.
Each Unit will be comprised of one common share of the Company (a "Common Share") and of one
Common Share purchase warrant of the Company (a "Warrant"). Each Warrant will entitle the holder
thereof to purchase one Common Share at an exercise price of $0.50 for a period of 24 months
following the closing of the Offering.
The Company has granted the Agent an option (the “Over-Allotment Option”) to increase the size of
the Offering by up to an additional number of Units, and/or the components thereof, that in the
aggregate would be equal to approximately 15% of
Yes madam and yes sir, rather than let the drill assays come in and then top up treasury, LBC
in its wisdom has decided to get in front of the hype and sell more shares before the 2025
9

pumpo begins. This news helps explain the dip in share price we saw the week before last and
commented on last weekend in IKN811, it also caused the logical and understandable drop we
saw in LBC’s shares last week.
I sigh. Yes, it’s a bit of a rugpull and we’re a long way from the first couple of weeks of this
trade, when LBC touched 50c and my entry timing looked smart. Now it looks a little dumb
(hardly the first time that’s happened) but on the other hand, we haven’t lost anything (fight
you for half a cent) and the trade set-up, though now diluted somewhat, remains in place.
Therefore I’ll sigh again and stick to the plan, holding
these shares until the drill assays begin to come back from
the labs.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): We can confirm that early earthworks
have begun at Fenix and the company is now getting on
with the job at hand. This is good. In trading, RIO.v saw a
burst of volume on Tuesday as a seller briefly took the
stock under the 60c line, which goes to show how odd
things happen in December
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): A new investment position to report in OCI, with the December 4th NR
“Orecap Invests in Metal Energy” (3). A new initiative inside the Ore Group stable, Metal Energy
(MERG.v) has (we quote) “…recently acquired the Highland Valley Project, located adjacent to
Teck Resources’ (TECK.B: TSXV) Highland Valley Copper mine in British Columbia” and is now
on a funding round. OCI is taking $220k of the $500k in units MERG.v is selling at 4c apiece
(unit = share + ½ warrant at 8c strike) and that means a change to our tracking table of liquid-
ish assets held by this investment entity:
OCI.v: PRO FORMA Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
ticker shares owned(m) PPS valueC$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.77 9.00 3.6
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.47 0.05 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.440 3.25 1.3
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.240 1.00 0.4
QCCU.v 39.10 0.12 4.69 1.9
MERG.v 5.50 0.04 0.22 0.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 18.95 7.6
Est.cash 1.20 0.5
Total 20.15 8.1
At 247.714 S/O
Indeed, with the consummation of the QCCU/Cuprum merger as announced last week (see
Copper Basket) and the drop in the prices of both American Eagle (AE.v down 16.3%) and
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v) last week, there’s some big changes going on in this table. With a
pro-forma liquid asset value of 9c last weekend, OCI is down to 8.1c/share this weekend and an
arb of 15.7%, the lowest it’s been for quite a while.
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): The one stock I’m most happy about seeing lower this weekend,
our target for a silver trade dropped 6.2% and under the price at which we first added it to the
Watch List. December being December, anything can happen and in a perfect world (for me at
least, current holders would disagree) AAG hits a selling patch and I get the possibility of
opening a trade at or around 40c. No need to rush in at the moment and in a worst case
scenario, I would eventually start paying up if silver looked bullish enough.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): A notable acceleration of share buybacks in November, as
ARG reported on its dedicated page (4) that it bought back 1,267,644 shares last month at a
cost average of C$1.76. With the renewal of the facility (see IKN811 last weekend and the
10

statements made by CEO Davidson, this move makes it clear ARG is going to accelerate this
part of the shareholder returns policy and for what it’s worth, I’m all for that.
Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v): This tinycapper reported its quarter, with small revenues and
breaken on its ops (around 600oz gold, no biggie either way) and a balance sheet that’s in need
of funding. Indeed, on the Q3 report’s heels PGDC announced it was extending its current loan
facility with it major holder, thereby improving liquidity. E know PGDC will need to raise funds in
one way or another to build its now permitted mine at Calcatreu and that’s why it’s a Watch List
candidate, rather than an open position; all depends on the way it goes about raising capital
and the potential this company may show to become a reasonably traded listing, rather than
what it is at the moment; a tinycap pennystock that sees very little market volume. Watching
brief.
The Copper Basket
After forty-nine weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 28.21% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 2365.19 12.66 76.8%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 734.72 4.54 9.9%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 432.03 4.64 35.3%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 339.64 2.00 124.7%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 159.33 231.03 1.45 -17.1%
6 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.519 212.54 7.20 -39.0%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 155.59 0.76 20.6%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 140.91 0.61 -55.8%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 150.07 115.55 0.77 196.2%
10 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 78.18 0.33 -12.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 119.31 59.66 0.50 177.8%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 25.25 0.395 -31.9%
13 XXIX Metal XXIX.v 0.12 173.7 20.84 0.12 0.0%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 76.381 17.57 0.23 -62.3%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 9.30 0.045 -35.7%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 28.21%
A big 8.1% leg down for The Copper Basket last
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
50%
week has brought the average back down to 45%
where it was at the start of November. Of our 40%
35%
15 stocks, five gave week-over-week wins 30%
25%
(NGEX.to, SLS.to, ASCU.to, OCO.v, COR.v) and
20%
of those, the big percentage movers were Oroco 15%
10%
(OCO.v up 15.8%) and Camino (COR.v up 5%
0%
12.5%). Two stocks remained unchanged on the
-5%
week (BIG.v, QCCU.v/XXIX.v) and that means -10%
eight losers (LA.v, MARI.to, ALDE.v, FDY.to,
CCCM.v, KDK.v, AE.v, ECU.v), including the big
losers headed by American Eagle (AE.v down
16.2%) and followed by Element 29 (ECU.v down 10.7%), C3 Metals (CCCM.v down 9.8%) and
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v down 9.1%).
That copper stocks weakness ran against the tide of copper prices (more on this below), as
copper perked up a little and moved away from the lows it’s been bumping for the last two
11
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8
source: IKN calcs

weeks. It wasn’t a massive move, but around 10c/lb isn’t a bad start and it came with real
fundamental drivers, too.
The first is that China is apparently starving for concentrate, as seen in this Reuters note (5)
entitled "Copper hit three-week high on supply concerns, falling inventories". Here’s an excerpt:
"News on Thursday that Chilean miner Antofagasta and Jiangxi Copper agreed to significantly
lower copper concentrate processing fees for 2025 highlighted concerns about sufficient availability
of copper concentrate in the spot market.
"For 2025, we'll probably see smelters struggle to make profits at the new TD/RC (treatment and
refining charges). Supply issues will start to bubble up in the second half of 2025," said Daria
Efanova, head of research at broker Sucden Financial.
The deal struck between copper conc producer Antofagasta and smelter (i.e. conc consumer)
Jiangxi Copper is reportedly U$21.25/tonne and
2.125c/lb and according to Bloomberg, some 76%
lower than the deals reached at this time last year and
was greeted with cheers by copper bulls, it also gave
people such as our new friend Daria above the
opportunity to sound smart about the market.
Personally I think it’s a crock as for one thing, we’ve
watched the market completely ignore copper
supply/demand fundies recently so why should they
start trading in line with a 2025 smelter deal all of a
sudden? After all, we’ve seen smelter terms drop even
lower than the deal reached last week, all that does is
underscore that there are more furnaces in China than
can be fed at the moment. For another, the more
likely reason copper was up last week is the most prosaic of the lot, that the currency of
counting weakened (see HG00 copper continuous contract versus DXY US Dollar index chart,
right), nothing makes copper prices go up in USD terms more readily.
But more important for we junior speculators is the current topsy-turvy nature of the copper
sector. Two weeks ago copper dropped under U$4.10/lb and at the same time, copper stocks
(particularly the junior explorecos we follow) rose sharply. Now, with strong fundies new for
2025 and a rally off the recent lows, our focus sector suddenly decides to give back all the
unexpected gains. Weird world. This perplexes the same way as it perplexed in IKN810,
November 24th, when we commented on the unexpected rally in explorecos into weak copper
prices. Back then we threw out a conjecture that copper stocks were being bought by new
dumb money in the sector and here’s an extract from that edition of two weekends ago:
“…while I’m the first to admit this is conjecture, the combo of…
 Markets rallying on the Trump win
 Instos looking for 2025 plays
 Copper tipped as the “next big thing” (again)
 High season for mining
12

…looks telling to me. The last few days have seen a lot of conferences and gathering on this
very subject, with CRU/CESCO Hong Kong the week before last probably the biggest, but
followed this week by large metals and mining gatherings in London, Zurich, Dubai and New
Orleans, to name but four on the circuit and we know that a lot of the messaging from assorted
speakers, gurus, experts and those touting the Next Big Thing has been aimed at copper. If that
were the case and the message has fallen into the ears of relative newcomers and/or financial
generalists in these days of November, for one thing they wouldn’t care too much about
positioning during a soft few days for copper (primed as they are for Moon-Per-Pound copper
prices in 2025) and for another, you’d expect them to focus on the biggest, well-known plays
with the bandwidth and brokerage followings to match. Again, we tick off SLS, NGEX, AE and
BIG as obvious candidates. Bottom line: If what we saw fits my conjectured scenario, last week
was dumb money entering copper stocks. I’ll be watching this week for further patterns to
confirm or deny this loose theory.”
IKN812 back and two weeks later (not one) there may not be any conclusive proof, our dumb
money theory makes even more sense. Over the medium-term it’s not going to be a big deal in
either way and I still maintain the house bullish stance on copper into 2025, but we’ve also
been leery about its near-term prospects.
The bottom line: Copper is a complicated market at the best of times and December’s market
often sees weird movements, so put the two together and scratch your head. Forecasting The
Good Doctor’s next move is far more difficult than explaining his last one and while the market
might want you to believe that last week’s metals price recovery was all about copper’s bright
future in 2025, the obvious question to beg is why the juniors decided to sink at the same time.
As much as I’d like copper stocks to move up and up forever, the theory that we saw dumb
money move into the sector at the behest of gushing presentations and talk of “no brainer”
trades during the gaggle of trade shows and conferences last month has gained extra evidence
and if so, the decision to sell Aldebaran (ALDE.v) into its recent price pop looks less silly.
Time to switch gears and take in our weekly look at world copper inventories, with data from
the recently updated Cochilco copper market stats page (6) (now with a free mailer service,
sign up yourself and get sent the useful free PDF):
 World copper stocks continued to do their typical December thing, with the aggregate
total dropping another 10,699 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 451,354mt. The action in
the three systems was also very similar to last week.
 Starting with SHFE, which saw an aggregate draw down of 11,019mt on the week and
closing Friday at 97,756mt, under the 100k line at last. While this caught some media
attention last week as a reason for copper price support, we again note that this
tendency is normal for the time of year and the dedicated SHFE chart (below) shows
that clearly.
 The LME copper stocks dropped by 1,200mt to close Friday at 269,800mt, which would
have been more but for the 1,550mt that landed in Rotterdam. Most of the action was
in Asia warehouses and Taiwan continues to see the most draw downs.
 Comex stocks rose by 1,520mt to close at 83,798mt and there’s a hint that they may
start moving back up again after sticking at/around 80k for a while. Worth watching for
a gauge on how demand for copper is in the North American market.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows stocks under 100k for the first time in this Chinese New Year,
it’s been a different track in 2024 but we’re back at something akin to normality as 2024 closes.
Thi
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
s 400000
tim 350000
e of 300000
yea
250000
r
typi 200000
call 150000
13 100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu China Manufacturing Purc2h0a24sing Managers Index (PMI)
54 2023
53 2022 52 2021
51 2020
50 2019
49
48
47
46
source: Cochilco data
1202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 3202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 4202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von
source: China PMI

y sees end users (e.g. factories along the Pearl River industrial belt stocking up and securing
supply for the first half of the 2025 manufacturing season, those orders dying a death the
moment 2024 becomes 2025. The next three weeks are worth some extra attention, as any big
drop in SHFE stocks would suggest forward strength in China’s producers. As the most recent
China PMI index reading of 50.3 is expansive (and the second 50+ reading a row, chart right),
there’s some reason to feel optimistic on this score
Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
American Eagle (AE.v): Under the title “American Eagle Expands
North Zone High-Grade Mineralization”, (7) more assay results from AE
last week and three holes reported, so instead of running the entire map
with coordinates and things, this time we zoom in on the main zone
where the three holes are located (right). As for the holes, #27 and #30
returned the best numbers:
 NAK24-27: 600 m of 0.33% CuEq (0.21% Cu)
 NAK24-30 : 515 m of 0.40 % CuEq (0.26% Cu)
Once again at NAK, we’re in that slightly odd situation where good
assays are considered negative. AE offered more lengths and grades of
the same type we’ve seen out of NAK in this entire campaign, but they’re
not the “whisper numbers” of blowout holes improve on previous holes
and live up to the hype that’s been stoked around this stock. The
company noted there are eight more holes at the labs, so plenty more
newsflow to come in the days and weeks ahead and with a whole bunch
of eyeballs on this stock, any comment we have in weekend stock notes
will always be after-the-fact. On that score, a look at the price chart
(below) shows that the market was disappointed in these numbers. This
desk less so, perhaps due to our limited exposure to AE (via OCI.v, see
above) but more likely because we’re clear on what NAK is, instead of
what we want it to be. This deposit has been
through several geological phases an unlike a
massive Andean porphyry, we’re not going to
get many long, uninterrupted hits. The job at
NAK isn’t just defining volume, it’s also defining
shape and with each drill, the team improves
their understanding on just what they have
under the surface. For this desk, AE returned
another strong and positive result last week but
we also completely understand why this stock
price, one that stood at over a Loonie just two
weekends ago, has dropped away again.
Speculators have one timescale on which they
want to play, meanwhile a serious geology team
backed by serious strategic and corporate
sponsors have another.
XXIX Metal Corp / QC Copper & Gold (XXIX.v / QCCU.v): We got the news on
Wednesday (8) that the Cuprum merger deal had been approved by shareholders, which means
this is now the owner or the Thierry project as well as Opemiska. The NR also announced the
clearing of the name change, which should go into official effect as from either tomorrow or
Tuesday (depending on how fast the market people do their jobs), so as from this weekend
QCCU is now XXIX, new name and new ticker.
QCCU has been a painful company stock to cover (and own,
an erstwhile holder speaking), having flatlined for a long time
and the ten-day chart (right) shows that hasn’t changed
14

recently. We can only presume the new project and corporate title will come with a new and
concerted marketing push and if that does something then fine, but until further notice
QCCU/XXIX is “show me”.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): Be clear that I’m no fan of this company and I’m on record with
my doubts about its Cactus project (starting with the metallurgy), but it’s also my tentative pick
for a Santa Rally vehicle as it’s lagging the field a bit too much at present. Last week ASCU
showed signs of doing just that when moving up and over C$1.50 on the back of news (9) that
it had been awarded its amended Industrial Air permit, called “…yet another key milestone in
the advancement of Cactus…” by its CEO George Ogilvie, which is laying it on a bit thick for a
permit that they needed and isn’t much more than the old permit that incorporates new zones
now under resource, but that’s okay. It couldn’t hold those best prices and fell back on Friday,
but ASCU still managed to return a week-over-week win and there weren’t many explorecos
doing that.
The Producer Basket
After 49 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 32.19% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 47.38 41.11 -0.7%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 41.63 83.59 52.4%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1748.05 29.31 16.77 -7.3%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 23.18 120.65 8.9%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 8.08 22.17 35.8%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.883 5.87 24.57 94.4%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.41 5.52 14.8%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 204.909 3.24 15.83 22.1%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.63 9.07 41.1%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.39 9.36 60.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 32.19%
Another negative week for the producer sector in
which gold lose a percentage point or so (GLD
proxy down 1.1%) and the GDX benchmark ETF
dropped by 2.2%, but somehow by hook or crook
our list managed to return a 1% overall gain to
the average. There were six losers from the ten
component stocks (NEM, GOLD, AEM, FNV, EGO,
DPMLF) but none of the losers was particularly big
with the worst of the bunch being Barrick (GOLD
15

down 4.1%). The one other unchanged stock on the week (HL, unch to the penny) helped a
little, but the applause goes to our three week-over-week winners (PAAS, LUGDF, WDOFF) that
between them, had enough to lift a negative week into the positive and add over 3% to our
already substantial lead over GDX this year.
Aside the luck of having two decent winners in our basket of ten, the other positive influence on
last week’s performance is that of silver, as that metal put in a good performance compared to
gold (see intro). Interesting to a certain point, but as the gold/silver ratio still hasn’t budged
meaningfully from the range it’s been in for the last few years (at least 80x, occasionally above
90x, chart right) it’s not enough to signal any real trend change. However, as our 2024 basket
has its quota of silver exposure via PAAS and HL, the relative strength of those stocks
compared to their gold-centric cousins helped in the near-term.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60% comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to): Barrick’s annus horribilis 2024 continued last week as the
year found another way of throwing problems the company’s way. Back in IKN806 dated
October27th we noted the deterioration of relations between the company and the government
of Mali over what the government claims are unpaid dues on its Loulo-Gounkoto asset in the
country, a mine complex that accounts for almost 15%
of Barrick’s total production at present. This week the
bad went to worse when the country, via one of its
courtrooms, issued arrest warrants for GOLD CEO Mark
Bristow as well as the head of GOLD in Mali. While
warrants for local personnel certainly have teeth, the
decision to include Bristow is far more heat than light
and all about ratcheting up the publicity campaign than
anything else, but in these situations no news is good
news and the market was understandably negative
about the development, as we already know Mali has
threatened Barrick with the denying of Loulo-Gounkoto
permits when they come up for renewal in 2026. That
made GOLD the worst performer of the week of our ten and while not a disastrous drop, adds
another question mark to the Bristow tenure in a year when gold has shot up but GOLD is
negative YTD, even after accounting for dividends.
Lundin Gold (LUG.to) (LUGDF): Meanwhile, to the winner the spoils and the Lundin Group’s
annus mirabilis rolls on, what with the Filo/Josemaria deal in Argentina and LUG in Ecuador
leading the way. LUG hit a new all-time high last week on the back of more positive exploration
news from the Bonza zone, South of the main Fruta del Norte deposit. The NR dated December
3rd (10) has these returns as highlights:
Drill hole AMN -2024-156 intersected 2.35 grams per tonne ("g/t") of gold ("Au") over 100.30 m
from 333.2 m, including: 3.30 g/t Au over 53.20 m from 353.8m
Drill hole BLP-2024-189 intersected 1.54 g/t Au over 123.50 m from 72.90 m, including:
3.08 g/t Au over 48.0 m from 81.3m, with: 10.06 g/t Au over 7.60 m
16
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2%
0%
ikn -2%
gdx control
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
source: IKN calcs -16%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Drill hole BLP-2024-162 intersected 1.43 g/t Au over 115.60 m from 47.40 m including:
2.43 g/t Au over 58.10 m from 92.90m, with: 4.58 /t Au over 20.50m
Drill hole BLP-2024-173 intersected 1.22 g/t Au over 133.20 m from 31.90 m including:
2.54 g/t Au over 49.80 m from 113.40m, with: 17.29 g/t Au over 2.9m
LUG seems to have cracked the code on this pull-apart system, one that eluded all previous
explorecos around the Aurelian and Kinross periods
(there were several neighbour play juniors that tried
their luck and failed) and while grades aren’t as
impressive in this set of assay results as the mine’s
current feed, it doesn’t matter so much because 1)
the widths sure are good and 2) they have a mine
and processing operation already, all they need to
do from here is up the throughput. The ten-day
chart shows news may have been leaking on
Monday, the day before the release, it also shows
the stock reaching a hard ceiling at C$35 and
staying there. But those are minor quibbles, there’s
no knocking the success this company has achieved
in 2024, now a near-double on your money and the
pick that’s made the most difference to the Producer Basket out-performance this year
Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO.to) (WDOFF): The second best performer of out list (so far)
this year and up a very impressive 60% YTD, we’ve noted on a couple of recent occasions that
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) did all the big moves in the first half of this year and hasn’t managed
to push on in the second half, but that changed last week with a strong 7.7% move for no
particular ostensible reason. However (and this is something I mentioned briefly on TwitterX on
Saturday), there’s a round of jungledrums about a merger deal for the company and this time,
the whisper is that there are talks going on with New Gold (NGD).
Now for sure, there are a couple of things to point out
now. First up “whispering M&A” is a mug’s game and
second up, there are a dozen of such unsubstantiated
rumours out there about any given company at any
given moment. What’s more, even when there is reason
for the chatter (e.g. the two companies are indeed
talking and it’s not just BS or fantasy) there’s zero
guarantee of any result from the negotiations and as
those versed in the inner workings of the mining world
will know, there are a dozen attempts at a deal for every
achievement. Put all that together and it’s why I rarely
pass on M&A whispers that float past this desk these
days, but there are exceptions and this is one, mainly because of the source, as this came from
a serious source and someone I respect in the Canadian miming world. Therefore it’s passed on
today and if something comes of it, we’ll probably find out in the New Year, not before.
Considering who told me, it fully justifies the price movement we saw last week because if I
know, it means a lot of others do as well.
The TinyCaps List
After 49 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 28.86% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 252.95 16.44 0.065 0.0%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 86.798 38.19 0.44 225.9%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 39.58 0.37 117.6%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 20.27 0.135 -25.0%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 5.32 0.06 -40.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 96.476 8.68 0.09 20.0%
17

Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 9.27 0.13 0.0%
South Star STS.v 0.750 52.64 28.95 0.55 -26.7%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 288.518 25.97 0.09 0.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 16.57 0.14 16.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 28.86%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The 2024 basket dropped a couple of points to close
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
under +30% for the first time since March, quite the
90%
difference from the heady days of +80% and +90% 80%
70%
in Q2. It would have been a lot worse too, if not for
60%
the 71.4% added by Kirkland Lake Discovery 50%
40%
(KLDC.v), a rebound move that managed to prop up
30%
the table. There was one other stock unchanged in 20%
the group of ten (LMS.v) and that leaves eight losers 10%
0%
as the tinycaps lurch and falter toward the finish line.
Most of the downmoves were small, the biggest hit
taken by Viva Gold (VAU.v down 17.7%).
Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v): For no particular reason, KLDC shares rocketed higher on Monday as
a buyer of size came in and picked up around 700k shares, first at the going rate and then
happy to pay higher. That was enough to support it for the rest of the week at 5.5c and 6c and
while not big in absolute cash terms, the 2.5c added
represents a +71% move. On reflection, perhaps it’s not
that surprising to see a buyer like this as there are some
deep pockets at board level, including non-exec chair
Laviolette (and if he’s the buyer, the amount sunk would
be pocket change next to either his net wealth (positive
vibe) or his losses in New Found Gold (negative vibe) this
year. There was also a NR announcing the latest episode
of its self-promo video channel on YouTube and snippets
from its current drill campaign.
None of the above changes the fact that KLDC is getting
dropped from the 2025 TinyCaps list, but we needed to say something about the stock in a
week when it moves this much and supported the overall basket average the way it did.
NB: Please be clear that The TinyCaps list is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Mexico: Torex Gold (TXG.to) and a fatal accident of consequence
18
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

On Thursday afternoon, Torex Gold (TXG.to) reported a serious accident from its El Limón
Guajes (ELG) mine in Guerrero State, South Mexico (11). Here’s the whole of the body of the
NR:
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - December 5, 2024) - Torex Gold Resources Inc. (the
"Company" or "Torex") (TSX: TXG) regretfully announces that during the day shift on December
5th, a fatal carbon monoxide gas exposure occurred, which claimed the lives of two employees and
one contractor at the El Limón Guajes underground mine ("ELG Underground"). A fourth contract
employee was also in the area and is currently in hospital and expected to recover.
Jody Kuzenko, President & CEO of Torex, stated:
"We are devastated by the deaths of these colleagues who were working at ELG Underground.
While the details are very limited at this time, we do know that a 32-year old male, a 36-year old
male and a 39-year old male have lost their lives to carbon monoxide exposure. Our priority right
now is to fully support their families and our people, as we start the work to understand how this
occurred."
The appropriate authorities have been notified and will receive the Company's full cooperation.
Activities at ELG Underground have been suspended and an investigation to determine the cause
of the accident will commence shortly.
Unsurprisingly, the stock dropped hard on the news on Friday, down around 12% on volume of
around 800k shares traded, as seen in the chart below left comparing the ten-day performance
of TXG.to to the GDX benchmark. However, the C$28.15 finish on Friday means TXG shares
took little more than a dent in its highly successful 2024 price performance that’s still essentially
a double on the year, as seen below right.
As well as the three deaths, at least one other worker has been hospitalized due to the incident
and unofficial word is of up to five other people being affected by inhalation of CO, so it’s right
to acknowledge the difficult and sad moment for those affected and we send our sincere
condolences to the families of the deceased. With that said, we have to get -nosed and return
to the capitalist angle: In such cases, it’s typical to see an operation suspended for a period of
time while government officials (be they national or state level) carry out investigations, at
which time the mine is re-started. Clearly TXG is the same as any other mine owner and doesn’t
want to see a lengthy suspension, but in this case they may not get their wish. To begin,
deaths from CO poisoning are rare indeed in what’s supposed to be a modern and diligent
mining operation in the 21st century. From time to time cases of unfortunate deaths from CO
underground have passed this desk, but they tend to be in old and abandoned mining works or
zones of old mines being re-explored. The frame of a large, modern and operating mine
suffering a CO death is rare and suspicious, as under normal circumstances safety equipment
and/or air monitoring would quickly pick up an issue. While details of the accident are not
available to us at the moment, it’s difficult to imagine a situation in which an entire UG gang is
exposed to CO for enough time to cause multiple deaths without some level of corporative
negligence. Secondly, this isn’t the first fatal accident at the mine in 2024, as witnessed in the
company’s 3q24 MD&A:
On August 29, 2024, a 40-year-old contractor worker tragically lost his life as a result of a fatal
incident in the Guajes Tunnel while conducting work on the overhead conveyor associated with the
Media Luna Project. The individual was operating a telehandler equipped with a boom when the
incident occurred. The appropriate regulatory authorities were notified completed the necessary
investigations, and in September the Secretary of Labor and Social Security subsequently carried
out an inspection audit on safety at both the underground and open-pit mines, which found 100%
19

regulatory compliance. The Company completed its own internal investigation and is taking actions
to prevent a similar incident from ever occurring in the future.
We note the regulatory post-incident safety inspection and public sector inquiry, but the
incident didn’t stop TXG from posting strong production results and indeed, it upped its 2024
production guidance for FY24 to 450-470k oz gold (from the previous 400k-450k oz range).
However, we get the feeling TXG isn’t going to get off so easily this time. Not only are there
three deaths (plus one serious injury) and a mine under full suspension, but this time TXG at
ELG is making national headlines. On Friday, the tragedy was picked up by new President
Claudia Sheinbaum in her regular daily press conference (she’s continuing the daily presser
tradition started by her predecessor AMLO) and made special mention of it to her country (12):
“…Sheinbaum said that she had order the national Civil Protection body to support the
families of those killed and that the Federal Government is investigating the incident.
“I have asked Marath Bolaños, the Secretary (Minister) of Employment, to increase
inspections and fully investigate (this accident) because it cannot be that one set of
rules is applied to Canadian companies here and in Canada they apply other (rules).”
And indeed, Friday saw TXG give a press conference at a local hotel where the company went
over the movements of the affected party (including the names of the three dead workers,
details here (13)) and during the presser, mining manger at ELG Faysal Rodríguez Valenzuela
said that, “…an eventual statement from the surviving member of the party will be of help and
provide us with details and understanding of the decisions taken by the group to enter an area
(or the mine) which we knew to be high risk.” The head of the nation’s Civil Protection office,
Laura Velázquez Alzúa, was also at the presser and yesterday Saturday she visited the mine on
an inspection visit (photos and brief write-up here (14)).
All this is bad news on several levels. The last thing TXG needs is to become a test case or a
political piñata for the way in which Canadian mining companies operate in Mexico. Also, the
involvement of national level investigators (rather than Guerrero State level) means extra
eyeballs and almost certainly more downtime for the mine. Being a single-asset company
means TXG is fully exposed to the risk of any lengthy shutdown at ELG and with the case now
being monitored at the highest levels, a production-affecting suspension and/or large exemplary
fine is now in the offing. As a result and considering the strange nature of these deaths at what
is supposed to be a modern mine with all 21st century levels of safety and ESR standards, the
12% lost by TXG shares on Friday may have underestimated the severity of this unfortunate
incident.
UPDATE Monday evening: With the edition going out a day late, it’s only right to add a small
update here to mention that this morning, TXG came out with an update on the tragedy and
after giving more details of what happened and making the right sympathy sounds, mentioned
that the mine is back open and working, with no expected hit to Q4 production. Clearly, that’s a
more optimistic scenario than the above note paints, but I’ve left it in with no edit because it’s
still valid. The approx 6% rally today is half of Friday’s losses and that’s in the right direction for
the company, but it also implies that TXG isn’t out of the woods just yet and with the national-
level attention garnered by this accident and a new administration potentially looking to make a
political point, anything could still happen.
STOP PRESS! Well blow me down, the above doesn’t look so stupid after all. Late Monday
evening and just as I’m putting this edition to bed, we read that the Federal government, via
the Economy Ministry, has placed Torex operations under full suspension. It’s going to have a
rough Tuesday’s trading.
Mexico: Sheinbaum talks open pit mining
Also on Friday during her daily presser, President Sheinbaum addressed the issue of a potential
ban on open pit mining in Mexico, as per the law project that made it through committee during
Q2 this year and caused the investment jitters we’re still feeling today. Here’s what she said
(translated):
20

“In the case of open pit mining, it’s also important to revise (the law project) because sand mines
required to make cement are open pit mines, the lithium we want to produce is also open pit
mining, therefore we need to revise the specifics of how the Constitutional Reform would
work….we are revising it to guarantee the protection of the environment, to be clear. This isn’t
about the lobbying by large (mining) companies, this is about the importance (mining) has for
Mexico.”
The BNAmericas report on Sheinbaum’s words (15) continued with this snippet on the
interaction between the mining industry and the new Mexico government (translated)
The President’s words came a day after the Secretary of the Economy (i.e. Mexico’s FinMin),
Marcelo Ebrard, published in his X social media account that he’d had a “very good meeting” with
representatives of the Mexican mining industry. The message was accompanied by a photo in
which he appeared with the president of the Camimex chamber of mining, Pedro Rivero, along
with other functionaries and company representatives. Ebrard added that they envisaged “the
needs of exploration and production of strategic minerals in order to achieve competitivity and
national security”, with no further details.
We again stress that people easily get two subjects mixed at this point. Firstly, the AMLO
government placed a de facto moratorium on permits for mining operations in Mexico and while
we still haven’t seen any movement and change on this score during the first two months of
Sheinbaum, that was to be expected and it’s widely understood that once the bureaucratic
wheels start turning, permits for mining operations (large, small, UG, open pit, whatever) will
start popping out from SEMARNAT (Mexico’s environmental body). Other commentators might
have expected that to happen the day after Sheinbaum took office, The IKN Weekly predicted a
lag and then results, so far our call is on track. Also, please note that any permit for whatever
mining company or project, underground or over-ground (even if it’s not Minera Alamos) will be
a positive step and enough for the industry to say “things are indeed getting better”, with a
sentiment-led rally to follow.
All the above should NOT be confused with what President Sheinbaum was talking about on
Friday: The law project to ban open pit mining as part of Mexico’s Constitutional Reform is not
the same thing, that’s still on the books and will at some point be debated by the lower house
of Congress and put to a vote. What we’re seeing here is Sheinbaum’s first moves in adapting
the law project, potentially setting up for a watered down bill to be presented for debate (as
her government knows full well that the bill as stands will not be voted up by both
chambers…we did all this subject innumerable times last year)
El Salvador: Bukele moves on his country’s mining potential (at last)
This has taken longer than I expected, then again this is LatAm and things tend to take their
sweet time. Back in 2023 The IKN Weekly ran a couple of notes highlighting the potential for
change in El Salvador’s mining sector under its new and very popular leader, President Nayib
Bukele. The first and main note was in IKN749 dated September 24th 2023, “El Salvador and a
Presidential election and mining”, which we followed up with “El Salvador: More signals of the
new pro-mining attitude” in IKN752, dated October 15th. Long story short, we expected Bukele
to win re-election in early 2024 and once done, we expected him to move to re-open El
Salvador to formal mining activity, rolling back the current laws that prohibit metals mining in
the country. Here’s an excerpt from the script at the time:
“…the government of right wing and highly popular President Nayib Bukele looked set to re-open
the country to formal level metals mining in 2024 assuming that President Bukele were re-
elected (and that despite the current country laws prohibiting him from running again). As both
his candidacy and eventual victory in 2024 look highly likely, recent jungle drums from the
country may make it into the Next Big Thing from exploration stage mining companies looking
for highly prospective and cheap land packages to explore and develop for metals, be they
gold/precious or other.”
Sure enough, Bukele won his landslide victory in February this year and received his second
mandate soon after. Indeed, (I think) we last mentioned the country and its mining potential at
the time of his election victory in IKN768, dated February 4th this year. Since then it’s been
quieter than I’d expected on this front but that’s changed the last couple of weeks, as Bukele
21

has finally got round to addressing the issue and as expected, he’s very pro-mining and wants
to repeal the current laws. Here’s AP (16) from Last Wednesday:
SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador (AP) — El Salvador President Nayib Bukele proclaimed himself in favor of
mining gold in the Central America country Wednesday and called his nation’s 7-year-old ban on metals
mining “absurd,” immediately putting in jeopardy the historic prohibition.
The unmined gold would be “wealth that could transform El Salvador,” he wrote on the social platform X.
Bukele’s party controls El Salvador’s Congress by a wide margin and his political opposition has been
devastated, so a formal proposal to end the ban is unlikely to meet much resistance.
Then on Friday, President Bukele said in a widely reported speech at a meeting of CAF (17)
(the development bank of Latin America and the Caribbean) that he would indeed send a law
project to Congress to repeal the current law prohibiting metals mining in the country that
dates back to 2017 and right on cue, anti-mining and environmental groups have been kicking
up a fuss ever since (led, for what it’s worth, by the Catholic church, whose Central American
leaders have been vehemently anti-mining for many years.
Those suitably interested in this subject can re-check IKN749, which had the need-to-know on
the potential of El Salvador’s rich and under-explored Gold Belt Zone. If you’re looking for a
direct way to play this development, the only advanced project is the Dorado gold project
owned by OceanaGold (OGC.to), which has a 43-101 compliant M+I resource of 1.43m oz
grading a strong 10.4 g/t AuEq (Au and Ag) with another 300k oz gold in the inferred category.
With 711m shares out, a market cap of over C$3Bn and a production footprint of around 500k
oz gold per annum, the amount of price leverage you’d get from a Dorado if you bought this
stock is up for debate, as it would take a decent amount of time to go into production even if
things went perfectly pro-mining under Bukele. But as things stand, there’s no other obvious
route and it may be another good reason to buy OGC if you were already considering the
option.
Argentina’s mining sector growth stalls
After 42 months of consecutive growth, this month’s
numbers from the Argentina mining sector show the
first year-over-year decrease in the number of direct
employment jobs in the country’s mining sector. I’ve
left this chart from this report (18) in the original
Spanish, but it’s not a difficult one to read and shows
the YoY result of -0.5% and the raw total of direct
jobs at 39,657, down 1,761 from its peak in March
this year (which means we have more negative
months to come, of course). The downturn is blamed
partially on the loss of public sector jobs connected to
mining (part of Milei’s public sector cuts) but mostly
on the drop in interest in lithium projects, with
development and funding for several projects being
deferred as the lithium price downturn has taken hold.
Argentina: One year of Milei
This Tuesday marks the first anniversary of Javier Milei’s presidency in Argentina, so expect
plenty of column inches in the business, economy or political news channel(s) of choice. And
Argentina being Argentina, this weekend has seen another raft of opinion polls and surveys to
mark the occasion, so rather than try to cover them all (Argentina is poll-addicted, it would take
forever) I’m going to pick just one that caught my eye, commissioned by Argentina’s newspaper
of record, La Nacion, and run by respected pollster Poliarquía (19). The headline stat from the
telephone-led survey of 1,000 urban dwelling voters across the country taken between
November 4th and 14th (MoE +/- 3.1%) is the President’s popularity rating which, at 56%
(with 43% disapproval) continues to remain solid and to the positive, no mean achievement
considering the time lapse and the depth of the reforms he’s trying to push through the
country. However, another poll result gets almost as much attention from La Nacion, as 71% of
Argentines say that they don’t like his aggressive style when talking about his detractors. So,
assuming substance still beats style in this day and age, a good year one for Milei.
22

Instead of offering you that headline graphic, here’s one from further down the report (worth a
visit, the charts are easy to read even if your
Spanish isn’t strong) showing the way the
population sees the country’s direction:
Long story short, from a highly negative Outlook
one year ago, Argentines see their country as less
worse alter a year of Miles and similar questions in
the survey elicit the same type of answer. For
example, when asked specifically about the
economy, those saying things are negative drop
from 71% in 2023 to 38% today. Or when asked
"How is the country compared to one year ago?",
the December 2023 survey saw 81% reply that it's
worse, 14% reply it's the same and just 4% say it's
better. The same question after a year of Milei has
41% saying worse, 18% same and 41% better, a
big jump in those who see improvement in the
country (while those who don't roughly conform to the anti-Milei voters).
Bottom line: Considering the radical changes Milei is enacting, this result is as close to optimal
as he could have imagined and I don’t mind admitting that my own skepticism this time last
year has fallen away. Here’s the concluding paragraph of what I wrote one year ago in IKN760,
dated December 2023, on his investiture ceremony and day one in office:
“Back to today’s events and for sure Milei will get his honeymoon period, not least because
Argentina the country is about to go on six weeks vacation. The Christmas period is immediately
followed by January and the month when half of Buenos Aires moves to the beach resorts to the
South or (if you have more cash) Uruguay, so even with Presidential decrees and political moves
in the next couple of weeks, the reality of serious prices hikes for basic goods and services in
Peso terms are yet to hit the back pocket of the rank and file. As from perhaps March, the cruel
reality of a President with a radical agenda and no real Congressional support will show.”
IKN812 back, that was then, this is now and more fool me, as I was too negative by half.
However, what we have got right in 2024 is the way in which Milei’s reforms have opened up
Argentina’s mining industry to the outside world, we were always clear that FDI would like what
it saw and was ready to move in if circumstances allow. 2024 has seen deals galore and share
price improvement in Argentine-exposed mining companies large and small, so with Milei now
established in power and not under popular threat, things should proceed for our sector along
the same positive lines.
Market Watching
AbraSilver (ABRA.v) delivers an updated PFS
And on the subject of Argentina-exposed mining stocks, Tuesday morning saw one of our
previous silver trades file an important update. For the second time this year AbraSilver
(ABRA.v) has announced a 43-101 compliant PFS on its Diablillos Project in Salta in Northwest
Argentina (20). We’re not doing a deep dive on the event, instead we’re going with a
numerically easier, high level look at the development, starting the reception for the news via
its share price action:
23

The market wasn’t particularly impressed. The announcement came on an up day for silver and
the silver miners, so the timing was good and initial reaction positive, but as Tuesday wore on
sellers began to appear and the selling then accelerated into the rest of the week (particularly
Friday morning). With dust settled this weekend, ABRA showed a breach of nearly 20%
compared to the silver miner ETF (SIL) and that’s a lot. For why that might be, here are a
couple of the tables from the NR starting with the main economic parameters at different
metals prices:
At current spot prices for silver and gold Diablillos makes a lot of sense, but that’s not what the
prospective buyer/builder/operator of the eventual mine is looking at (sorry to say). We could
imagine the scenario in which ABRA.v goes it alone and raises its own capital, but for that you
can be quite sure the cost of capital will be higher than the 5% or 8% implied by the NPV lines
above. Also, for comparative sakes the “Down Side Prices” used above are the same as the
“Base Case” offered by ABRA.v in its March 2024 PFS and back then, its post-tax IRR was
higher at 25% and change. That’s mainly because of what’s in this second table:
The slightly expanded project incorporating newly outlined resources also comes with a
significantly higher capex, up UI$170m to U$543.5m in initial capex and almost U$200m in total
capex and that, ladies and gents, is a lot of money for a silver mine no matter how robust
economics might be at spot.
At 125m shares out and C$2.40, ABRA this weekend runs a market cap of C$300m on the nose,
a significant amount of money for an exploreco no matter how good or bad your project might
be. The market cap of any non-revenue generating company (miner or anything else) is wholly
dependent on its story…its goodwill if you like and in this case, we’re talking about an exploreco
that will either need to raise more money or find a buyer to trigger its most obvious exit
strategy, all in a market that definitely favours the buyer over the seller. If ABRA wants to go it
alone it will pay through the nose for capital and the bankers will want their principal
24

guaranteed, which means hedging at a range that takes away at least some of the metals price
upside. If the (far more likely) third party buyout is the exit strategy, ABRA shareholders will
demand that the buyer pay up, then the new owner has to pay for development costs and
that’s no small issue. If the buyer believes U$30/oz silver is with us forever then fine, but
basline economics wouldn’t leave much meat on the bone after paying for the takeover. And
while not the leading issue, I’d also opine that the PFS NR also contained a potential strategic
error by ABRA, as it decided to emphasize that the Argentina government’s RIGI investment
program currently has a maximum two year application window, ABRA therefore implying that
now was the time to strike in order to get the best financial deal from the project. I see no
useful reason to place a deadline, even a soft one, on marketing a company as you’re
manufacturing a weak point in your argument.
The bottom line: While ABRA at Diablillos showed positive paper economics in its PFS update
last week, the market frowned on the sharp rise in capex, up U$170m (+46%) in less than
three quarters. Every one of those dollars cuts into the real margins for a buyer and it wasn’t a
massive surprise to see the stock trading lower on this announcement, more proof (if ever
needed) that the mining world is still highly sensitive to initial capex hurdles for projects.
However, I was reasonably impressed with what I saw and though I managed to trade a loss in
the stock in 2022 and 2023, ABRA has stayed on my radar and it’s one I’ve continued to
monitor. I think the company is right to expand the production footprint at the expense of
capex, it’s essentially a bet on higher silver prices becoming a permanent fixture and if you put
a gun to my head, I cannot help but agree with that baseline philosophy. Given the right
circumstances, there may be a trade here as what ABRA offers, and quite clearly, is another
slice of that near-ubiquitous “leverage to silver”, with metals price upside that quickly
compensates for the extra capex expense in this PFS. Diablillos is a good project in a good
address, its not going to be cheap to build, but as an advanced stage exploreco (we could
argue it’s a development trade from here) it offers the right mix to the bullish producer that
wants economically robust silver and gold ounces in an emerging jurisdiction. On balance I still
prefer Aftermath (AAG.v) this weekend and that compnay’s position as first-in-line on my silver
shopping list remains, but ABRA didn’t deserve the wholly negative reception it got last week, it
has the operating economics to counter the capex bill and it’s the right size to attract a buyer
who believes in silver going forward. More likeable this weekend than last weekend.
Contango ORE (CTGO) drops further
Last week’s post mortem note “Contango ORE (CTGO) and a missed bullet” chewed over the
disappointing costs guidance news delivered by CTGO and along the way, we were clear about
the potential for further downside in the stock price despite its sell off that was already in the
books. From last weekend:
Quite frankly, I’d be surprised if we don’t see further downside next week as Friday was a half-
day in the NYSE when a lot of traders and investors were more interested in turkey sandwiches,
hangovers and Black Friday deals than anything happening at the stock market, this could go
under U$10 if market tides turn against it.
Sure enough…
…last weekend’s
U$14.08 share price is this
weekend’s U$11.45,
another 18.7% week-
25

over-week loss and a brutal ten days of trading for this stock. The above chart shows the 40%
lost by CTGO share in two weeks and that from a level that was only just above my own
personal buy price, back when I was keen on the stock and its potential.
Conclusion
IKN812 is done, but no bullet point this week, this edition has been on my desk far too long
and it’s time to get it out the door. I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick
stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required
by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://mene.com/world-of-mene/investor-relations/financial-results-mene-q3-2024
(2) https://liberocopper.com/_resources/news/nr-20241202.pdf
(3) https://orecap.ca/news/orecap-invests-in-metal-energy/
(4) https://www.amerigoresources.com/investors/share-buybacks/
(5) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-hits-three-week-high-on-supply-concerns-falling-inventories/
(6) https://www.cochilco.cl/web/informe-semanal-del-cobre/
(7) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-expands-north-zone-high-grade-mineralization-1/
(8) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/232510/QC-Copper-Receives-Shareholder-Approval-for-Cuprum-Acquisition
(9) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241203765821/en/Arizona-Sonoran-Granted-Amended-Industrial-Air-
Permit-and-Completes-Local-Polling-with-87-Support-for-the-Cactus-Project
(10) https://lundingold.com/news/lundin-gold-reports-significant-expansion-at-bonza-122790/
(11) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/torex-gold-reports-three-fatalities-233000660.html
(12) https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/sheinbaum-confirma-muerte-tres-trabajadores-mina-canadiense-torex-
gold-guerrero-20241206-737264.html
(13) https://guerrero.quadratin.com.mx/acompana-proteccion-civil-a-familiares-de-intoxicados-en-mina-de-cocula/
(14) https://guerrero.quadratin.com.mx/recorre-coordinadora-nacional-de-pc-mina-en-cocula-tras-incidente/
(15) https://www.bnamericas.com/es/noticias/sheinbaum-anuncia-revision-de-prohibicion-de-mineria-a-cielo-abierto-en-
mexico
(16) https://apnews.com/article/el-salvador-bukele-gold-mining-308b8602c486c1ae6283d5bb82be2027
(17) https://www.laprensagrafica.com/elsalvador/Bukele-confirma-que-pedira-derogar-ley-que-prohibe-la-mineria-
20241205-0086.html
(18) https://www.ambito.com/energia/alerta-mineria-se-interrumpieron-42-meses-crecimiento-del-empleo-n6089053
(19) https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/encuesta-exclusiva-a-un-ano-de-asumir-milei-conserva-un-nivel-alto-de-
aprobacion-pero-su-estilo-nid08122024/
(20) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-announces-updated-diablillos-pfs-with-cad1046m-usd747m-
after-tax-base-case-npv
26

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
28

Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
29

Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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