IKN #809Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 809, November 17th 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Still leery about metals, TLS24, Wanted: Basket Cases for 2025.
Fundamental Analysis: Why Aftermath Silver (AAG.v).
Stocks to Follow: Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to), Red Pine Exploration
(RPX.v), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Libero Copper
(LBC.v), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v),
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), American Eagle (AE.v), Oroco
Resource Corp (OCO.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Surge Copper (SURG.v), Palamina (PA.v), Awalé (ARIC.v).
Regional Politics: Chile and BHP, Peru and China, Ecuador: Election polling and Colombian
power.
Market Watching: New Found Gold (NFGC) (NFG.v) and a 43-101, Gold Fields (GFI) and
Regulus Resources (REG.v), That lithium dump.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 Today’s main fundies note is on the new Watch List component, Aftermath Silver
(AAG.v). I’ve been forced to reassess my opinion about this stock since its surprising
good first pass metallurgy results NR from last month and while not at the 20c or 30c
levels of before, this is eminently buyable. We run the numbers to try to show why.
 The good Lord knows I’m no fan of the stock, but Barrick (GOLD) looks oversold here.
This publication doesn’t have the space or resources to go deep on a big PM miner the
way that would be most satisfying but we do dedicate space in today’s Producer Basket
to run over the strategic case for going long this under-performer.
 Copper sold off, hopefully it won’t have much more downside left in it this coming
week. We do that in the Copper Basket as well as other places. As for the TinyCaps
Basket, Awalé again caught the headlines but for me the overlooked Surge Copper
(SURG.v) is becoming a more interesting story at the current price deck. Los grade isn’t
the handicap it used to be, worth keeping that in mind.
 As you’re now aware, this edition is going out 24 hours late, so please assume prices
and commentary pertains to the weekend prices, not Monday evening. Apologies for
the late delivery this week and while I don’t want to make whining excuses, I can
confidently state that once a certain seven month old girl gets to be 12 months or so,
my sleep pattern should return to normal and I won’t be as tempted to fall asleep at
the desk as I was this weekend.
Still leery about metals prices
This time last week, we noted how the Trump victory had seen a metals sell-off as the market
adjusted for the new normal and how I’d decided to be less bullish about things, all of a
sudden. Here’s a bit of last week’s intro text:
1

Up to last week, I was banging the table about being fully long the market
even with those three documented sales, stating that I was keen on putting
the raised cash back to work. That’s now changed and while I’m not predicting
a wholesale crash or anything of the sort, it now feels right to let that treasury
alone for a while and see how the chips fall in the new scenario for metals and
mining, the New Trump Era if you want.
,
And here’s another bit:
It’s not a case of being nervous or suddenly bearish on the prospects for gold,
copper, silver etc, it’s merely the desire to go into cautious mode for a while.
That was then, this is now and one week later…
…it turns out there was indeed reason to be cautious. The new Trump era seems to be an
equal opportunities market for all metals; no matter whether precious, industrial or weird and
Jekyll/Hyde, they all get sliced by 7%. And as documented by our GLD tracking charts, plenty
of other people are doing the same as gold inventories drop and the price/inventory ratio rises,
suggesting that prices dropped even faster than physical sales.
GLD gold holdings 2024 YTD
900 (metric tonnes)
890
880
870
860
850
840
830
820
810
800
However, let’s stress that nobody here is claiming to have “got it right”: I didn’t call for a sell-off
or sell any shares as a direct reason for what you see in the first chart above, instead mine is
still very much the cautious, wait-and-see position vis-à-vis this market. The same feeling I got
last week that told me to stay away from the buy buttons (and I did) is now saying that we’re
possibly at the bottom of this sell-off already and we’re not going to see multiple down weeks
for gold in the same way we saw in late 2016 when Trump won his first term. All the same,
caution is still the word of the week and while net long and hoping things turn around sooner
rather than later, I’m also good about keeping powder dry for a while.
TLS24
Twas the month before Christmas,
And all round the market,
Tax-loss selling was with us,
You could see it and hark it.
2
42/1/2 42/1/21 42/1/22 42/2/1 42/2/11 42/2/12 42/3/2 42/3/21 42/3/22 42/4/1 42/4/11 42/4/12 42/5/1 42/5/11 42/5/12 42/5/13 42/6/01 42/6/02 42/6/03 42/7/01 42/7/02 42/7/03 42/8/9 42/8/91 42/8/92 42/9/8 42/9/81 42/9/82 42/01/8 42/01/81 42/01/82 42/11/7
mt 5.00 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2024 YTD
4.80
4.60
4.40
4.20
4.00
3.80
3.60
source: SPDR GLD data
3.40
42/1/2 42/1/21 42/1/22 42/2/1 42/2/11 42/2/12 42/3/2 42/3/21 42/3/22 42/4/1 42/4/11 42/4/12 42/5/1 42/5/11 42/5/12 42/5/13 42/6/01 42/6/02 42/6/03 42/7/01 42/7/02 42/7/03 42/8/9 42/8/91 42/8/92 42/9/8 42/9/81 42/9/82 42/01/8 42/01/81 42/01/82 42/11/7
source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

It’s that wonderful time of the year again, ladies and gents; Jack Frost nipping at your toes,
sleigh bells ring are you listening and children roasting by an open fire. We’re also entering the
Canadian Tax Loss Selling time window so, without naming names or making
recommendations, this desk advises that readers open their portfolio spreadsheets and consider
which of their open positions (if nay) are vulnerable to late year selling for tax purposes. All
those of you in predatory mode may want to start looking for potential targets that you might
be able to pick up at a steep discount in the days after Christmas, once the TLS window closes.
Wanted: Basket Cases for 2025
Yes indeed, it’s that time of year again. Long-term readers know this segment, it happens every
November and today we begin this desk’s annual call to you out there, esteemed subscribers of
The IKN Weekly, for nominations, suggestions, ideas and thoughts on the companies we should
include in the 2025 Copper Basket, the 2025 Producer Basket and the 2025 TinyCaps Basket.
But for those new round here, here comes a copypaste last used in IKN755 November 2023:
Every November/December, your author puts together a long list (then a short list) of stocks for
our three tracking baskets for the year to come, namely The Copper Basket, Producer Basket
and TinyCaps Basket. Year-end will see those lists refreshed, with companies leaving and being
replaced by others and as usual, my long-list is already in place for all three lists. However,
every single year without exception, when I ask for your ideas and suggestions I get ideas that
are better than mine and the final make-up of the tracking baskets is always an amalgam of
brains. We therefore throw the subject out to the collective mind of readership today, asking for
suggestions and here’s the framework required for each category, as the baskets are somewhat
different in make-up:
 For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent the
junior copper mining world. The maximum market cap is normally $1Bn (it can go
higher, e.g. NGEX.to this year) but preferably I like them lower to better reflect our
sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a cross section is required. As we’re not
trying to beat the street and want a faithful reflection of the sector, always happy to
include bad copper companies or dog stocks if they bring something to the table (e.g.
this year we deliberately included CCCM.v and COR.v, both doing “as expected”).
 For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we normally
require a minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for
precious metals producers that will out-perform in 2024, as we also try to beat the GDX
benchmark. That’s a semi-serious competition but, as The IKN Weekly has managed to
out-perform the GDX in seven of the eight years we’ve run this segment, there’s more
than a little pride involved in the picks as well these days.
 For The TinyCaps: First and foremost, for this list we try for a maximum market cap of
$20m, as The TinyCaps tracks market moves of the smallest companies. However, at
this level of market cap there are many broken stocks and dead companies with
projects going nowhere. They are not interesting, as although we cannot expect
operational or managerial perfection at this level the company still needs to “have a
pulse” and be a reasonable trade or speculative alternative.
I normally look to change between three and five companies on each list, so if you have a good
candidate for the Producer, Copper or TinyCap list, be they companies you own or not (or if it’s
a doggish type of idea, perhaps “owned”) please drop a line the usual addresses. Thanks in
advance for any and all suggestions received and expect this intro note to run by way of a
nagging reminder for the next two or three editions.
3

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Why Aftermath Silver (AAG.v)
Last week’s edition came with a concise note in the Market Watching section to announce I was
opening Watch List coverage on Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), an exploration stage junior with
projects in Peru and Chile. Today’s main fundies note is a number crunch on the stock and,
while it isn’t a deep dive fundamental examination of every nook and cranny of the company,
should be able to lay out why this is now one of the most interesting silver explorecos on the
market today. We begin with the basics, starting with the corporate structure:
Shares out: 277.252m
Options: 19.51m
Warrants: 48.47m
RSUs/DSUs: 2.35m
Fully diluted: 347.582m
Current share price: C$0.51
Market Cap: C$141.4m
Cash per share: C$0.055
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.72=CAD$1
The numbers you see above are pro-forma, as AAG is currently in the middle of a placement
that we assume closes in good order. It’s a strategically interesting one too, because for second
time in recent months we see Eric Sprott making a strategic investment in AAG and upping his
ownership significantly. The 22.222m units being sold at 45c apiece (share + ½ warrant priced
at 70c) should close just after the AGM set for this coming Wednesday, November 20th , as this
new share sale to Eric Sprott puts him above the 20% line and makes him a new Control
Person of the company, therefore approval is required. This comes on the heels of another
equity sale in September, also exclusively for Eric Sprott, of 14.286m units. Together, these
investments have moved his position to 71.97m or 26.6% of shares out and to that, we also
need to add the 18.254m brand new warrants he now also owns.
It’s fair to say that Sprott has gone large on AAG this year and the stock has taken has fancy in
no small measure. The interest shown by this high-profile market figure has seen AAG shares
rally sharply in the last three months, but in recent times there have also been other positive
factors to boost its share price and market cap. For one, the good met results that pleasantly
surprised many observers, your author included (see below) and for another, more recently the
buying AAG saw as its weighting on the SILJ juniors ETF was increased. That’s the reason for
the 3m+shares traded on Friday and as such, we may well see the stock fall back in the week
to come (EDIT Monday evening, it’s down to 50c). Here we have two price charts that help
document recent events, with the 12-month chart below left and the ten-day chart including the
recent dip into the 40c and last Friday’s big volume, below right:
Corporate overview: But before we get there, first we do the financial bones of AAG. As this
is an exploreco with no income we’re not going too deep, instead we focus on the balance
sheet items as they’re enough for a reasonable window on financial strength, burn, etc. We go
4

back to early 2021 to give a reasonable perspective on how AAG goes about its business and
also, as there are significant changes afoot thanks to the recent funding by Sprott, the charts
also show our estimates on what to expect from the four quarters to come.
We begin with the assets and liabilities overviews and for assets, the fixed portion is fairly
steady at around C$28m or so (depending on the forex changes) and the real fluctuations come
from cash treasury, as AAG burns and expenses (rather than capitalize). The liabilities are small
and as from May 2025 will get smaller, as that’s when AAG pays the next installment of its
optioning schedule to the underlying owners (SSR Mining). The U$3m cash is due on May 15th
and after that, will leave a final payment of U$3.25m in November 2026 to earn 100% of the
project (minus a 1% NSR, with another 2% NSR held by another entity). Therefore, part of the
cash injection from Eric Sprott this year has certainly been earmarked for the May’25 payment.
AAG.v: Assets, per qtr
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
The business end of the two above charts is the cash position and working capital. Assuming
the latest placement closes in good order (and it should), the two Eric Sprott placements add
C$15m gross proceeds to AAG and with a recent $1.8m warrant exercise, we expect treasury to
top out at C$17m at the end of this month (when AAG reports, its financial year ends May
31st). Then come the burn of development and exploration, plus the U$3m (C$4.2m assumed)
that comes out for the May 2025 option payment. However, even after that we forecast that
thanks to “Uncle Eric”, AAG gets through the next four quarters and leaves them still with a
healthy C$6.2m at bank.
As for shares out, we go back a little further to show just how much dilution has gone on since
Covid. Back then AAG had 91.178m shares out,
these days its 277.252m pro forma and with a
share price this weekend of C$0.51, that makes
this stock a C$141.4m market capper. That's no
longer cheap per se, but there's good reason for
this implied value.
5
12.yam 12.gua 12.von 22.bef 22.yam 22.gua 22.von 32.bef 32.yam 32.gua 32.von 42.bef 42.yam 42.gua tse42.von tse52.bef tse52.yam tse52.gua
C$m AAG.v: Liabilities per qtr
fixed 14
other current
12 cash
10
8
6
4
2
0
source: company filings
12.yam 12.gua 12.von 22.bef 22.yam 22.gua 22.von 32.bef 32.yam 32.gua 32.von 42.bef 42.yam 42.gua tse42.von tse52.bef tse52.yam tse52.gua
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
16 AAG.v: Working cap per qtr
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
12.yam 12.gua 12.von 22.bef 22.yam 22.gua 22.von 32.bef 32.yam 32.gua 32.von 42.bef 42.yam 42.gua tse42.von tse52.bef tse52.yam tse52.gua
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
20 AAG.v: Cash treasury per qtr
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
12.yam 12.gua 12.von 22.bef 22.yam 22.gua 22.von 32.bef 32.yam 32.gua 32.von 42.bef 42.yam 42.gua tse42.von tse52.bef tse52.yam tse52.gua
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
300 AAG.v: Shares Out
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
02.yam 02.gua 02.von 12.bef 12.yam 12.gua 12.von 22.bef 22.yam 22.gua 22.von 32.bef 32.yam 32.gua 32.von 42.bef 42.yam 42.gua tse42.von tse52.bef tse52.yam tse52.gua
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

The Bereguela resource
We are not going to dwell on its two other assets, the Challacollo and Cachinal deposits in
North Chile. Instead we zoom in on the flagship Berenguela project in South Peru because this
is all the market value these days and the reason I like the stock.
Originally understood as a silver-copper project, these days Berenguela is marketed as a Silver-
Copper-Manganese project with a zinc by-product kicker. It's located in the Altiplano regino of
Peru at a lofty-sounding 4,200masl, but its address, just off the main road that runs between
the major cities of Juliaca and Arequipa, is excellent and it has all the infrastructure you'd
require for a mine, with water, power lines, roads and labour pools. It's also fairly close to
several working mines, including the Limon mine near the small town of Santa Lucia. For what
it's worth, I've travelled this very road more times than I care to remember and it's easy to see
a new mine being built here. As for CSR, AAG has done a good job in bringing its local
communities on side. Previous project owners weren't the best CSR stewards and had left a bad
impression on the all-important locals, but since taking over AAG has calmed the waters and
these days, reportedly has a good relationship with those that matter. Bottom line: No red flags
in address or community.
What really matters here is the resource and in April 12, 2023, AAG updated the work done by
previous operators and offered its own Berenguela Mineral Resource Estimate after the drilling
programs of 2022 (to October, any drilling after that has to wait for the next MRE). Here’s the
current resource:
The 40.176m tonnes M+I resource is a polymetallic proposition, with silver and copper the main
payables but these days (and depending on market prices), manganese is a significant
component of projected revenues. This is a new twist to this story, as while the Mn was always
known to be there, other companies didn’t consider it a payable. However AAG does, as it sees
an opportunity to supply the fast growing battery Manganese Sulphate market that requires
high purity products.
As a quick aside, until recently the Manganese Sulphate (MnSO4) market has been dominated
by the demand from agricultural fertilizers, but recently demand has started for a high purity
product that can replace cobalt in EV battery systems. Recent tests of the Berenguela MnSO4
product suggest it can meet the thresholds for deleterious elements demanded and if so, AAg
has a valuable by-product on its hands. For context, in its 2023 43-101 technical report AAG
uses a price assumption of U$530/mt for 32% MnSO4 and that’s roughly where the agro
market is today, but battery level 32% MnSO4 currently sells for over U$850/mt. It goes
without saying that AAG will be keen on confirming its Mn will be able to sell to that market and
is putting in plenty of effort to make that happen.
But back to the overall resource and its based on reasonable, and conservative parameters. In
its 2023 technical report, AAG assumes recoveries of 81% for silver, copper and manganese,
with 76% for the minor zinc component. Price assumptions are reasonable, with silver at
U$22.50/oz, copper at U$4.00/lb, 32% manganese sulphate at U$530/mt and zinc at U$1.45/lb.
Cost assumptions were also reasonable for early last year, which means that our model iuses
higher assumptions but those are more than countered by today’s higher market prices for
metals, particularly silver.
The Metallurgy difference
However, there’s one key piece of this puzzle that’s only recently fallen into place and while it
may be connected to Eric Sprott’s recent extra enthusiasm for AAG, it’s not him and his money.
6

To cut a long story short, there’s always been a bit of a question mark hanging over the
Berenguela resource about its metallurgy and to lay all my cards on the table, your author has
also been disparaging about the project over the years due to this very subject. For one thing,
copper-silver deposits are often tricky metallurgical prospects and provide problems, either due
to low recovery levels or an abnormally high (and therefore costly) amount of reagents required
to extract the metal from the rock (or both). For another, previous operators of the project
(e.g. SSRI 20 or so years ago) had reported potential issues from early stage testing that didn’t
get too far into the subject. Finally, it was telling that while AAG had done a lot of the technical
work on the project and provided drill results, resource updates and the like but until recently
its met work data had been scant and, once again to be totally frank, this was a #1 reason why
I looked and didn’t touch AAG shares while they were in the cheap seats and trading between
20c and 30c, both last year and this.
However, last month this part of the story
changed for the better. On October 16thj (the
very day Eric Sprott decided he needed another
22.2m shares of this thing and was willing to pay
C$10m for them), AAG announced (1) met testing
results for Berenguela, an NR that grabbed my
attention that morning and on opening it, I found
myself pleasantly surprised (and said as much,
right) (2). However, more important than my
thought is what the NR had to say, including the
C-suite comments made by executive chair Michael Williams:
The results show a recovery of 95% silver and 89% silver respectively for the 2 composites
tested. The standard leach process shows no interference from manganese or other metals.
Cyanide consumption is less than 1 kg per oz of silver recovered, indicating this is not a
significant cost or technical issue. Test work to complete the flowsheet details on Aftermath's
Berenguela project is continuing at Kappes Cassiday and Associates' (KCA) Reno facility.
Recent work has focused on silver extraction from two composite samples RD2MINA (KCA test
100164) and RD4LOWA (KCA test 100166). Work is continuing on additional composite samples
of mineralization.
Michael Williams, Aftermath's Executive Chairman commented: "We are extremely pleased with
the metallurgical results to date, as we have demonstrated that we can potentially produce a
battery grade manganese sulphate product and the recoveries of the silver and manganese to
date are high. As we move into the next phase of our metallurgical test work, we look forward to
scaling up the work. The next stage of our metallurgical test work is advancing and includes
preliminary process and sizing studies for plant design purposes."
All that was much better than I expected, with good recoveries of both main payable metals,
normal reagent requirements and indications that Berenguela can indeed produce battery grade
MnSO4. Agreed that this testing is still relatively early stage and AAG will have to do a lot more,
but these results are what you want from your development project and were much better than
I expected. On the back of that NR, later that day Eric Sprott waded in for that second tranche
of shares so the numbers must have impressed him (or his advisors), too. However, the combo
of good met news and Eric’s second tranche was enough to shoot the stock higher and, as seen
in the price chart above, AAG shares zoomed from under 50c to 68c in a matter of days. That
saw me sighing and wondering whether I’d missed the boat, because there’s no way I’m
chasing exploreco stocks in a buoyant market, let alone silver stories. But the last couple of
weeks have seen AAG comes back to its field and when it dropped under the 50c line ten days
ago, it was enough of a catalyst for me to write what I did in IKN808 last weekend and put it
on the Watch List. Which brings us up to date.
Showing the value in Berenguela
There’s no price target being set today, but what I do want to do is show how the numbers
work when if we theorize a mine at Berenguela. The model is ballpark in nature to take into
account the early-ish stage of development (we don’t have a PEA yet), but we can make
7

reasonable and conservative assumptions that show robust potential economics. Here’s how I’m
building a mine via the main criteria:
 A 10,000tpd open pit operation which, if we use the 2023 M+I resource only, would give a
mine life of just under 12 years. At that run rate, the resource also has another seven
years' worth of inferred resources outlined and we fully expect AAG will be able to add
even more tonnage to those numbers as the project develops and more drilling is done.
 Opex costs raised from the March 2023 assumptions by 37% (bets guess is that they're
around 25% higher than the inputs used in the Berenguela 43-101, we go very
conservative
 A hefty 20% deduction from gross metal value to cover TC/RC transport and marketing, as
polymetallic operations tend to have to pay more to middlemen (ands we're being cautious
as usual) and a 3% NSR (2% + 1%, even though 1% of that can be bought back by AAG)
 Capex is covered by equity and debt, with shares outstanding moving up to 500m and debt
of $150m to build the mine. These are plain guesses.
 Forex of US0.72 = CAD$1, Peru tax at an effective rate of 23%, Worker profit participation
at Peru’s standard 8%.
As for the payable metals:
 Silver grades at the M+I resource of 78 g/t, with recoveries at 81%
 Copper grades at the M+I resource of 0.67%, with recoveries at 81%
 Manganese grades at the M+I resource of 6.1%, with recoveries at 81%
 Zinc grades at he M+I resource of 0.34%, with recoveries at 76%
Finally, we run those criteria on four metals price decks
 Stress Test: We show what happens if metals go low again using Silver U$22/oz, Copper
U$3.50/lb, Manganese U$500/mt, Zinc U$1.00/lb. We’re not expecting financial miracles at
this price deck, we want to know if a mine at Berenguela can keep turning a modest profit
during a down period for metals.
 Base Case: Here we show the numbers AAG would probably take to financiers tomorrow if
they had to raise capex: Silver U$25/oz, Copper U$4.00/lb, Manganese U$600/mt, Zinc
U$1.20/lb
 Current Case: This is a rough reflection of where we are today: Silver U$30/oz, Copper
U$4.50/lb, Manganese U$700/mt, Zinc U$1.40/lb and of those, I’m being deliberately
conservative about Mn at 700.
 Upper Case: This aren’t exactly wild blue-sky numbers, but they do show what can happen
under a higher price deck: Silver U$35/oz, Copper U$5.00/lb, Manganese U$800/mt, Zinc
U$1.50/lb and once again, I may be selling Mn short and if the battery grade market
develops strongly, this could go a lot higher.
Put them together and the model spits this out:
AAG at Berenguela: Model Year Revenues & Op Income (U$m)
Price case stress base current upper
zinc Mlbs 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5
U$/lb. 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.50
Zn revs (m) $20.5 $24.6 $28.7 $30.7
copper Mlbs 43.1 43.1 43.1 43.1
U$/lb 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
Cu revs (m) $150.8 $172.3 $193.8 $215.4
8

Mn Mtonnes 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178
$/mt 500 600 700 800
Mn revs (m) $88.9 $106.7 $124.5 $142.3
silver (Moz) 7.31 7.31 7.31 7.31
U$/oz 22 25 30 35
silver revs (m) $160.9 $182.8 $219.4 $256.0
Total mine rev $421.08 $486.44 $566.43 $644.37
TC/RC/other $84.22 $97.29 $113.29 $128.87
Revenues $336.86 $389.15 $453.15 $515.50
Sources: AAG data, IKN calcs and estimates
At all the price decks, silver is the main payable and followed closely by copper, but the
contribution made by the manganese component is important We see this more clearly when
we run the numbers through a model year condensed income statement:
AAG at Berenguela: Income statement model year (U$m)
at 500m S/O stress base current upper
Sales (U$m) 336.9 389.2 453.1 515.5
Depreciation 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
SGA+R&D 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0
NSR etc 10.1 11.7 13.6 15.5
Op income $74.8 $125.5 $187.6 $248.0
finance exp. 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
Worker part 4.8 8.8 13.8 18.6
Tax (23% eff) 12.6 23.4 36.5 49.3
Net income $42.3 $78.3 $122.2 $65.1
Shares out 500 500 500 500
EPS 0.08 0.16 0.24 0.33
Sust. Capex 10 10 10 10
FCF 0.16 0.24 0.32 0.41
Sources: AAG data, IKN calcs & estimates
The current case envisages operating income of U$187.6m per annum and that’s serious
money, implying capital payback in under two years. However, consider that operating profit
without the Mn, it would be rather thin. Finally and just for illustrative purposes, what that kind
of cash flow could do to the AAG share price and be clear THIS IS NOT A PRICE TARGET:
Sales and earnings Valuation data for AAG.v at Berenguela based on
Price case stress base current upper Life of Mine model year production
Sales (U$m) 337 389 453 515 Theoretical target $1.91 based on 6x EPS
Upside to target 274% on base case
EPS 0.08 0.16 0.24 0.33 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $142 Enterprise value $135
FCF 0.16 0.24 0.32 0.41 P/sales (stress) 0.36 EV/sales (stress) 0.35
P/E (stress) 6.0 EV/EBITDA (stress) 1.3
P/E (base) 3.3 EV/EBITDA (base) 0.9
P/E (current) 2.1 EV/EBITDA (current) 0.6
Let me repeat, THIS IS NOT A PRICE TARGET and that’s now twice in underlined, bold-
typed block caps so you have no excuse. If it were my formal target, I wouldn’t be putting this
on the Watch List and instead, I’d be buying chunks of stock today.
The bottom line: After being leery and skeptical about AAG for the last three years, I’ve had to
eat my words on the stock and its main Berenguela project because signs are that its
metallurgy is not going to be a project killing issue. Add that to the way Eric Sprott’s been
9

wading in and the new interest for the type of high purity Manganese Sulphate that AAG
believes it can supply to a hungry market, and its not a surprise that the stock has run the way
it has. Recent silver price weakness has brought it back to its field and the current 51c price
looks reasonable. Good enough as an addition to the Watch List and if the right combo of
factors show up, don’t be surprised to hear that I’m a buyer in the near or medium-term future.
Stocks to Follow
Considering that the metals we most care about (gold, copper and silver) did this last week…
…I’m forced to play the populist, newsletter writer’s BS card and say something along the lines
of “could have been worse” or “augurs well for the near future”, because the junior miners
normally get hit a lot harder when the bottom drops out of metals prices.
It was still a negative week, not trying to hide the plain facts and the ten week-over-week
losers (MAI.v, RIO.v, SILV, EGO, ARG.to, LBC.v, NCAU.v, PGZ.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v)
outnumbered the four winners (MARI.to, ALDE.v, IPT.v, AAG.v, PAU.cse) and three unchanged
stocks (RPX.v, OCI.v PGDC.v) easily, but the big drops were limited to Mene Inc (MENE.v down
11.5%), Minera Alamos (MAI.v down 9.9%), Pan Global (PGZ.v down 9.1%) and Eldorado Gold
(EGO down 8.7%) and of those, I’d even argue the psychological hit of EGO was worse than
the financial one I personally took in Top Pick Minera Alamos…because that drop wasn’t a big
surprise under the circumstances. The other two? Shrugging them off. We even had a couple of
big winners in the shape of IMPACT Silver (IPT.v up 33.3%) and Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) to
help cushion the fall slightly, plus Aftermath Silver (AAG.v up 10.9%) if we’re allowed to count
the added Watch List stock. As GDX (down 9.0%) and GDXJ (down 8.9%) were also whacked
hard, there’s a feeling of having missed the worst of the bullets this time and all in all, one of
those weeks where you take your junior mining losses on the chin and stand up again, ready
for better times ahead. Rousing pep talk done (did it help anyone?).
We sold both SilverCrest (SILV) and Newcore (NCAU.v) last week and added Aftermath (AAG.v)
so we’re down to 16 open positions on our Stocks to Follow, four off our self-imposed
maximum. With a nice cushion of cash in the treasury, we have the funds the space and the
desire to add new and cheap looking shares to the list soon. Ten stocks are in the green, one is
unchanged since inception, five are in the red.
10

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.32 52.4% $0.75 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.62 -22.5% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$15.20 -8.2% undervalued midcap gold
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.66 7.8% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.53 48.5% Quality Cu developer
Red Pine Expl RPX.v ADDING C$0.105 8-Sep-24 C$0.125 19.0% New sm position, will build
Libero Copper LBC.v SPEC BUY C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.395 16.2% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.10 -47.4% Cu jr, may add post financing
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% top fundy value, illiquid
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$1.91 165.3% finally moving up, hold to 1q25
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.32 6.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.04 100.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Aftermath Silver AAG.v WATCH $0.46 10-Nov-24 C$0.51 10.9% Silver exploreco, nice project
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.27 217.6% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.115 -76.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
SilverCrest Met SILV Nov'24 U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.76 41.4% sold on CDE buyout
Newcore Gold NCAU.v Nov'24 C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% sold on advisor appt
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): POSITION CLOSED. Not a difficult sale, there was plenty of
liquidity and while the 32c price was lower than anything last week, it was comfortably inside
the recent trading range of NCAU and it was easier to hit the big red sell button on this than it
was on SILV (below). Semi-related, we note last week that Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) last week
lost its appeal against the stripping of one of its key concessions at its Metates project by the
government of Mexico, due to the concession not meeting minimum development
requirements. That lapse happened under the CEO-ship of Alan Pangbourne.
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to): POSITION CLOSED. So much for my plans of getting out
“…with a likely +50% in pocket…” as per the close of last week’s note, as SILV dropped over
5% out the gate last week and never really looked like clawing it back. So after getting used to
the idea, I sold mine at U$9.76 and that turned out to be the right move, what with the stock
11

closing the week down 7.2% at U$9.57. That’s the end of another trade, one that I can’t really
complain about too hard because it was profitable but I can’t help but think the CDE deal left a
lot of equity value on the table and that SILV would have made it much closer to my original
U$12.96 target price during that silver rally a month ago if it hadn’t been under offer.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): MAY STILL ADD. I may regret trying to be as cute as I was
last week, fishing and failing as I did at the 11c price, but the market was nervy and negative
enough for a sudden downdraft and I positioned accordingly, with very little appetite to buy at
the market price. As things turned out RPX got nowhere
near 11c, sellers stayed away and I may end up paying
125.c or 13c in the days to come. A lot will depend on the
market sentiment (and mine as well).
We did have news from RPX and it was upbeat, with the
announcement of “…the beginning of its fully funded
25,000 metre (“m”) drilling program for 2024 and 2025 at
the Wawa Gold Project.” It probably goes without saying,
but see the NR (3) for all the details, but for our purposes
we note that while there will be some testing of other
targets on the greater Wawa project concession area,
most of this drill program concentrates on the areas around and under the Jubilee Shear with a
view to adding tonnage and gold ounces to the 2024 MRE. That makes a lot of sense and this
part of the CEO comments from Michael Michaud caught my eye:
“As the program includes a significant portion of both extension drilling of known zones and exploration in
untested areas to discover new mineralized zones, it is intended to demonstrate the potential of the property
to host a significantly larger open pit and underground mineral resource. Additionally, more limited drilling will
be designed to test several new conceptual targets and more regional targets discovered during the recent
surface prospecting.”
The last time I exchanged with CEO Michaud was just after the 2024 MRE was announced and I
came away with the impression that the proposed open pit was still a new concept to the
company and they were more interested in developing the underground high grade vein
system. That seems to have changed and RPX is warming to the idea of that open pit, now
planning on making it bigger. Post NR this week I exchanged with CEO Michaud by mail (a busy
guy) to check on a couple of details about the drill program and learned the following:
 Its underway using one drill rig, with a second rig being added in early December.
Drilling has started and “is going well”
 RPX plans to complete the full 25,000m by July
 We may get the first assay results before Christmas, but reading between the lines
it’s more likely the news starts flowing in January, once tax-loss selling season and
the Christmas/New Year festivities are over
So now you know. I’m still leery about deploying capital but if the right price shows for RPX, I’ll
buy some.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): Up 2c on the week, tight price range, decent daily volume, ALDE went
about the job of consolidating its price move very well and its trading was a near perfect match
to our updated concept for this trade, as laid out last week in the fundies note “A clear strategy
for Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v).” We remind readers that we’re closing in on the next
catalyst moment, the updated mineral resource estimate
(MRE) expected “by the end of this month”, if John Black can
actually keep to a schedule for once. If things go well we’ll get
another price lift and then at some point early in the new year,
probably January I plan to sell and take profits because there
is a ceiling to this stock price (assuming copper doesn’t go
through the roof) and the new set-up with Nuton/RTZ strongly
suggests there won’t be any meaningful M&A action until the
PFS arrives.
12

Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): The value buyers we saw coming for the stock the week
before last vanished into thin air and EGO went into plain vanilla “trade the median” mode, as
seen in this five-day chart (right) comparing its week to that of the GDX. I’m now annoyed
about being in the red on this trade AGAIN and continue to bang on the table about EGO’s
excellent and deep value. A good Q4 signaled and Kouries coming online in 2025, so much to
like at this price.
Grrr…I’m right about this stock and the market is wrong…grrrrr.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): On the back of the moves in both American Eagle (AE.v, see Copper
Basket below) and Awalé Resources (ARIC.v, see TinyCaps below), OCI traded smartly higher
early last week, bouncing between a decent value 6.5c and the next likely ceiling price of 7c.
That meant I didn’t add any, but when the market dropped away and the targeted 6c prices
showed, volume dropped to virtual zero and there was nothing left for me. So I’ll wait another
week to see if I can fish a few more at this weekend’s (fakey looking) price, but at the same
time I’m surprised it closed this low considering the renewed and growing interest in its two
biggest investment positions. Here’s our updated pro forma valuation tracker, with a reminder
that this table assumes the QCCU/Thierry deal consummates as planned and becomes the
newco XXIX as from 2025):
OCI.v: PRO FORMA Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
ticker shares owned(m) PPS valueC$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.87 10.17 4.1
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.57 0.06 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.465 3.44 1.4
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.265 1.10 0.4
QCCU.v 39.10 0.12 4.69 1.9
MIS.cse 24.71 0.04 0.99 0.4
subtotal 20.44 8.3
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 21.94 8.9
At 247.714 S/O
That’s a 48.3% arb this weekend and that’s a big gap, as even the 36.9% arb of OCI were 6.5c
today would be a juicy difference.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): A second negative week for LBC,
though it started strongly and the stock traded on volume
at 48c and 49c early week. But then appetite dropped off
and profit takers did their thing. I see no issues here and
will stick to the plan, the buy price was the right one and
we’ll look to sell on first assay results from Mocoa.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): For a fleeting moment
last week, MARI jumped higher and touched the C$5 line
as somebody somewhere decided they wanted in for more
than a couple of thousand shares and was willing to pay
up. But the moment passed, the norm of low volume trading returned and the high prices
13

couldn’t stick. MARI closed the week just two cents higher at C$4.53, which is still fairly decent
all things considered.
MARI also quietly dropped its 3q24 financials last week,
so a quick check on the basics before moving on and as
operating expenditures tend to be regular, we’ll just
focus on the balance sheet (plus a quick reminder that
MARI reports in USD, not CAD). Here are the asset and
liability overview charts, which show the recently
improved cash position in the positive side of the ledger,
then virtually zero owed to anybody in the liability
ledger. Optimum.
MARI.to: Assets, per qtr
Here below left is a focus on cash via the working capital chart (as liabilities and “other current”
are both small, this is basically treasury), with treasury seeing enough added in Q2 from
exercise of a million derivative shares to keep it flat, then the larger boost during Q3 via the
$68m financing MARI ran in August, including the $30.8m from new strategic investor Assore of
South Africa.
Finally above right, the shares out evolution also shows the new shares emitted of course and,
at today’s 101.017m puts its market cap at C$457.6m (or around U$329m). Financially
speaking, no news is good news at MARI and this company continues to be run impeccably. It’s
all-but navigated the heavy lifting year 2024 and we’re approaching the time window for the all-
important PFS, the document from which MARI will likely market itself to the highest bidder.
$4.50 is going to look mighty cheap soon.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Another corporate video from ARG last week, with Aurora
Davidson making a pitch that wasn’t really aimed at people like me as retail grunts with an eye
for the way capital is allocated in mining tend to get it. Instead, CEO Davidson seemed to aim
her words at instos and funds that might try to compare a potential investment in ARG with a
“copper growth story”. Entitled “Amerigo Growth Redefined Part 3” (4), the thrust of the
14
724.74 349.95 239.25 956.35
266.55
984.75 547.95 128.06
2.45
967.86 332.67 901.76 953.56 901.76 295.07
346.37 339.17 173.47 274.67
439.28
120
110
100
90 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m MARI.to: Liabilities per qtr
fixed 40
other current
cash 35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
LT liabs
current liabs
source: company filings
MARI.to: Working Capital per qtr
45
40
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m MARI.to Shares Out
source company filings
853.46 853.46 853.46 853.46 146.37
737.78 39.78 39.78 820.88 811.88 622.88 622.88 622.88 622.88 32.88 288.29 709.29 662.39 662.49 20.101
110
100
90
80
70
60 50
40
30
20
10
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
source: company filings

argument is offered along with a new downloadable and interactive spreadsheet available on
the ARG website (5) that demonstrates that buying “a growth story” instead of ARG isn’t
necessarily the right move in the near-term or the long-term, as backers often get diluted out of
full returns.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): I almost wish I were surprised about the negative display from MAI
last week, instead it elicited a sigh and a shrug from this desk. The reservations I floated in
IKN808 about the deal to buy Sabre Gold got more feedback and commentary than I expected
and in another surprise, those that mailed/DMmed/WhatsApped in tended to agree with the
points made. We now find ourselves in a period in which MAI is likely to trade without vigor
until the merger is closed and in that time, we now also have to consider whether the drop to
the low-30s brings Tax Loss Selling into play.
However, there is a clear catalyst on the horizon. Aside any immediate sentiment change that a
permit in Mexico would bring, MAI is scheduled to report its 3q24 financials at the end of this
month (it usually waits until the limit day, this time around November 29th) and that could
provide the company with a boost. We’re not expecting a corporate net profit this quarter and
Santana production isn’t going to be massively different from the last couple of quarters, but we
should get a better idea of what to expect from the “first real quarter” of the Plan B turnaround
at the mine, i.e. 4q24. With gold prices soaring and shipments set to make a sharp leg higher
as from Q4 (and in 2025), this is when we will have concrete proof of better times ahead. It’s
also worth noting that conceptually, MAI could all-but pay for the ramp of Copperstone via
Santana cash flow in 2025 and assuming a placement at some point may be the wrong path.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): After trading modestly all week, IPT took off like a scalded cat late
week as buying volume came for the stock and all asks were taken out by the dumbest of dumb
money. Yes indeed, it was SILJ rebalancing day, many thinly traded juniors got bent out of
shape by the most moronic ETF in the metals world and it so happens that this time, IPT was
one of the targets. So, we have a 32c share price this weekend and by some miracle, your
author’s trade is now in the green. But unless something else weird happens next week it won’t
stay there, so if anyone owns IPT and wants to liquidate the trade at a surprise bonus price,
Monday may be your only day. Personally I’ll hold through, it’s still my small “leverage to silver”
trade and won’t do me much harm if (when?) it drops back from whence it came.
The Copper Basket
After forty-six weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 25.70% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 2197.05 11.76 64.2%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 543.76 3.36 -18.6%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 421.79 4.53 32.1%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 324.35 1.91 114.6%
5 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.519 233.20 7.90 -33.1%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 159.33 205.54 1.29 -26.3%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 184.25 0.90 42.9%
8 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 150.07 130.56 0.87 234.6%
9 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 113.19 0.49 -64.5%
10 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 68.70 0.29 -22.7%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 119.31 53.09 0.445 147.2%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 26.85 0.42 -27.6%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 20.84 0.12 0.0%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 76.381 19.86 0.26 -57.4%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 7.23 0.035 -50.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 25.70%
15

A small 1.5% drop in the basket average on the The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
30%
week, with the seven losers (BIG.v, ASCU.to,
25%
FDY.to, OCO.v, CCCM.v, QCCU.v, ECU.v) doing
20%
enough damage to beat out the five week-on-
15%
week winners (NGEX.to, SLS.to, MARI.to, ALDE.v, 10%
AE.v), with three unchanged stocks (LA.v, KDK.v, 5%
COR.v) making up the numbers. The biggest 0%
moves were all to the downside, with C3 Metals -5%
(CCM.v down 14.8%), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v -10%
down 11.1%) and Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v
down 10.8%).
The last few weeks have seen me beating on a
repeated message of “Still bullish copper long-
term, concerned about copper near-term”.
Those concerns came to fruition last week as
the change in market sentiment caused by
Trump’s across-the-board victory in the US
Presidential election reached the copper market.
As seen in this 12-month chart, copper bounced
off the U$4.00/lb line that we last saw (and
slightly broached) in August this year and as the
chart suggests, we’re at a long-term floor…or at
least a medium-term one.
Indeed, as Reuters reported from last week’s
CRU World Copper Conference Asia conference in Shanghai, the market’s suited and booted are
all singing from the same hymn sheet (6):
SHANGHAI, Nov 14 (Reuters) -Copper prices could fall towards $8,500 a metric ton within the next four
months on expectations that demand will be hurt by potential trade disruptions when Donald Trump returns to
the White House in January, copper industry participants said.
Further down the note, we get a quote from Nicholas Snowdon of Mercuria Energy
Trading:
“The pressure on prices reflects heightened concerns around the impact on growth from potential trade policy
from the new U.S. administration.”
And if you’re wondering, yes that’s the same Nicholas Snowdon who was fired from Goldman
Sachs for calling the copper market badly. Then…
LME copper could fall to $8,500 by the end of the first quarter next year, most traders, producers, brokers
and analysts surveyed by Reuters said during the annual copper industry gathering this week in Shanghai.
Others at the event said they expect prices to range between $9,000-$9,500 next year, citing similar
fundamentals to 2024.
Then…
Citi analysts on Wednesday revised down their copper price forecast to $8,500 a ton within three months,
from $9,500 previously, due to likely U.S. trade tariff hikes and weaker-than-expected Chinese stimulus so
far.
Then…
Project Blue analyst Jonathan Barnes said LME copper prices could average between $9,300-9,400 over the
next three months, with a near-term dip towards $8,500 possible as markets digest the implications of a
Trump presidency, with 2025 prices seen averaging between $9,475 and $9,575.
In the longer-term, prices are likely to be supported by demand driven by possible Chinese stimulus moves
next year, analysts said.
Finally…
CRU expects the copper price to recover to $10,000 by the end of March 2025 and potentially hit $15,000 by
2029, backed by energy transition demand and mine supply tightness.
A lot of agreement there, with all voices aiming copper at U$8,500/mt (that’0s U$3.86/lb in old
money) and all voices expecting a rally in the New Year. In other words they must all be
16
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs

subscribers to The IKN Weekly, right? Right? Highly unlikely, it’s more a case of a market
backdrop that behooves the herding of opinions. However, we had more evidence last week
that the long-term demand outlook for copper is in-line with the opinions of those who write
the cheques and make the investment decisions. In an interview with Bloomberg TV last week
(7) BHP CEO Mike Henry had this to say about the metal:
Soaring demand for copper will require $250 billion of investment over the next decade, helping
to drive further mergers in the industry, BHP Group Ltd. chief executive officer Mike Henry said.
“New deposits in certain key or critical minerals are becoming harder to find, more expensive to
develop and requiring more by way of capability to manage risk and technical capability…That
suggests an aggregation to scale over time and companies who are of scale, who have strong
balance sheets like BHP and who have deep technical capability. Those will be the companies
that will win in the decades ahead.”
Henry underpinned his view with a forecast for copper demand, which he says will rise by
between 70% and 100% between now and 2050. In rough terms, that means the copper
market will have to add around 1m metric tonnes of supply per year over those 25 years. That
sounds a lot, but as it works out as an unadjusted 4% per annum it’s not that different from
the supply increases we’ve seen in the last ten years. However, as we out here know that will
mean copper sourced from lower grading and technically more difficult sources and as that
means higher averages for both capex and opex, the only way that copper digs dug out the
ground is from higher market prices. And that, in a nutshell, is why I’m long the metal and will
stay that way.
Now for our weekly look at the moves in world copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 The overall draw down in world copper stocks continues, with the aggregate of the
three official futures systems coming to 483,502 metric tonnes (mt) this weekend,
down 9,120mt on the week.
 For the second week running, most of the action was at the Shanghai SHFE, with
inventories dropping another 9,197mt to close at 130,465mt. Once again, that’s a
standard size and direction for warehouse changes in Q4 and the SHFE chart below
shows how the line continues to track “upper end of normal”.
 LME stocks dropped by an insignificant 525mt to close at 271,875mt and for the second
week running, the changes with minor. We move on.
 The Comex added 602mt to close the week at 81,162mt, another minor move that
requires no further comment. And yes, I spelled “bellwether” wrong last week, one of
those ingrained spelling mistakes and a source of self-hatred.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows the continuation of the return to normality. We may get down
to 100k by the end of the year, we may not.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks:

Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): Last week, ASCU announced (8) that Nuton had exercised its
top-up rights and added C43.1m to the company treasury by buying 2.151m shares, pro-rata to
the recently completed C$34.5m bought deal placement (9) run by ASCU in September/October
(and how we laughed at that announcement at the time, here’s a segment from IKN802):
That’s added over C$30m in net proceeds to the ASCU coffers and should see the company set
fair for funds in all 2025, but at what cost? For one, here’s the share count chart:
ASCU.v: Shares Out
18
3.43 8.14 0.24 4.15
8.07 1.17
7.88 7.88 8.88
8.501 0.901 0.901 1.901 2.901 5.901 5.901
3.951
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
So much for “non-equity, non-dilutive”, the count’s up
by almost a third. Secondly, we note that the day
before that bought deal was announced, ASCU was a
C$1.65 stock. That’s now C$1.29 and while some of
that is the recent weakness in copper, the
comparative chart to COPX suggests that the share
price has taken a hit of around 10% due to Ogilvie’s
volte face on equity placements.
American Eagle (AE.v): On Monday 11th
November, AE.v gave us the week’s biggest news
story out the copper exploreco patch (10):
Toronto, Ontario – November 11, 2024 – American
Eagle Gold Corp. (AE:TSXV, AMEGF:OTCQB) ("American Eagle" or the "Company") is pleased
to announce that it has entered into a subscription agreement (the “Agreement”) with a wholly
owned subsidiary of South32 Ltd. (ASX:S32) ("South32"), pursuant to which South32 has agreed
to invest approximately $29.16 million in the Company on a non-brokered private placement
basis. Under the terms of the Agreement, American Eagle will issue 33,321,577 common shares
in the capital of the Company ("Common Shares") at a price of C$0.875 per Common Share,
representing a 15% premium to the 5-day volume weighted average trading price of the Common

Shares on the TSX Venture Exchange (the “TSX-V”) ending on November 8, 2024, for gross
proceeds of $29,156,379.88 (the "Offering").
That’s a great deal on great terms, with S32 becoming a new 19.9% strategic backer of AE and
its NAK project at a crowd-pleasing price. That amount of money also means AE has the
treasury it requires to drill through 2025 and probably the whole of 2026 as well, all while likely
adding rigs and accelerating the project. Assuming the deal closes in good order and using this
weekend’s share price, this means AE has now added
over C$100m to its market cap in 2024, what with it
starting the year at C$28.31m. Or if you prefer, the
money S32 has just injected into AE is more than its
entire market cap at the end of 2023. All good stuff.
On the news, AE jumped higher and traded briefly in
the 90s, but settled back and finished the week at
87c, basically the deal price. That would have made
for a big and satisfying percentage move if it weren’t
for the trading of two Fridays ago which, 20/20
hindsight and all that, was almost certainly on a
leakage of the news from S32. That’s not great and as
AE to date has had a reasonably good record of keeping market-moving news to itself, they
should look to the chain of communications and tighten any potential loose lips.
Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v): It managed to
bounced off its lows, but last week was still a new
modern day low point for OCO stock. I’d like to say
I’m surprised, but I’m not. It’s also almost three
months since we had a news release of any type
from this company, we’re a long way from the days
en it paid social media touts for pump jobs and
peppered the market with constant NRs about
whatever. OCO has all the hallmarks of a broken
these days and, while I’m up for debate if you have
strong views against the idea, I don’t think OCO is
going to make the 2025 Copper Basket.
The Producer Basket
After 46 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 23.80% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 47.18 40.93 -1.1%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 38.22 76.76 39.9%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1748.05 29.11 16.65 -8.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 21.89 113.95 2.8%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 7.80 21.41 31.1%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.883 5.10 21.35 68.9%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.40 5.50 14.3%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 204.909 3.11 15.20 17.2%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.60 8.87 37.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.17 7.86 34.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 23.80%
19

A week is a long time in politics. All ten of our basket stocks were week-over-week losers as the
Trump victory brought more risk-on trades to market and saw safe havens turned into U.S.
Dollars. Most of our chosen ten dropped in the same range as the GDX but, thanks to the least
worst performances of Dundee (DPMLF down 0.6%) and Wesdome (WDOFF down 1.5%), our
average dropped a percentage point less than the benchmark ETF. And lookie there! No matter
that gold has had a year to remember, all it needed was a few soft days of trading and the red
ink appears next to Tier 1 mining stocks.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60% comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Newmont (NEM): A two month chart of NEM, GDX and GLD to show why the mining sector
needs a strong leader but doesn’t have one. The
market seems to think the problem with PMs in
November is the Trump victory but a look at the
recent action shows that the turn point for precious
metals stocks, rather than just the metal, came on
the day NEM reported its Q3 and severely
disappointed the generalists looking on to our corner
of the market. Indeed, gold didn’t turn down
meaningfully until after the election but by then,
GDX was already in retreat and being dragged down
by the sentiment change caused by NEM and its
pathetic costs returns.
On the day NEM announced its move to buy out
Newcrest, it was a U$39.83Bn market capper, while AEM was at U$25.64Bn market cap. The
NEM/NCM deal was valued at U$16.8Bn so as it happens, this weekend’s U$47.18Bn market
cap for NEM means almost exactly 50% of the merger value has disappeared. However, in the
same period AEM has managed to add nearly U$13Bn to its market cap and is now within
U$9Bn of the sector top dog.
When considering the case of NEM and NCM, one has to wonder where the money has gone
but these days, it’s not just the money is managed to vaporize during the deal period. NEM’s
poor delivery on promises has started to affect the entire precious metals mining sector.
Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to): How many of you had this visual on your bingo cards for
2024? Gold bullion up 24%, Barrick Gold down 8% YTD:
20
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2%
0%
ikn -2%
gdx control
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
source: IKN calcs -16%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

It’s quite the fashion to pile onto GOLD these days and I’m one of those voices to have pointed
at its weaknesses, poor costs control and failure to live up to its own guidance frames in the
last couple of years (not forgetting the weaselly way its tries to move the goalposts using
semantics when failing to meet its own guidance, a highly annoying trait that provides a
window into the heart of its CEO), but there are limits and this balance sheet…
…really isn’t that bad. Over four billion in cash isn’t exactly a massive warchest, but its more
than enough for comfortable operating liquidity and as PPE, there’s a net add of U$872m in
mining assets add this year already. With gold doing what it’s done we’re highly unlikely to see
any impairments (even at Porgera) and that brings us to the price/book ratio, because with net
book value at U$32.897Bn as at end 3q24, this weekend’s market cap of U$29.11Bn means it’s
running a P/Bv of 0.88X. For sure it’s been a mediocrity, but even so it’s been making profits
distributing dividends and is under zero balance sheet pressure with debt now under
U$5Bn…there’s no reason at all to see this being priced at “Dysfunctional Company” levels
under 1.0X. I agree that margins and profits haven’t been great and if we run a basic forward
P/E on the 28c EPS from 3q24 it gives us a ratio of just under 15X, that’s not a crazy bargain.
As stated, I’m not a massive fan of this stock and you won’t hear me defending it with passion
and verve, but at current prices, it doesn’t have to be a crazy profit generator. is always one of
its best quarters, the company has assured us it will make the lower end of its guidance range
for production this year (which means it misses on costs, but we’ve kind of worked that one out
already) and you can bet serious money that the cash flow from gold at U$2,600/oz and above
will impress
To repeat: You’re not going to find me sticking up for Mark Bristow of extolling the virtues of
this company compared to others (first among equals AEM, which has been knocking it out the
park for three years running), but you will hear me stating out loud that GOLD at U$16.65 is
way too cheap and offers value for the buyer. For a P/Bv of 1.0, it needs to be a U$19 stock (or
U$18.91, but you know what I mean) and that number is perfectly attainable, all GOLD will
need is one decent quarter for the rally to start and the “hey, not so bad after all” comments
from the stuffed suits. That quarter is almost certainly 4q24 and we’ll get to hear about its
production and preliminary sales in January.
21

The TinyCaps List
After 46 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 33.69% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 252.95 18.97 0.075 15.4%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 86.798 40.36 0.465 244.4%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 37.44 0.35 105.9%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 19.52 0.13 -27.8%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 3.10 0.035 -65.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 96.476 9.65 0.10 33.3%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 10.34 0.145 11.5%
South Star STS.v 0.750 52.64 29.48 0.56 -25.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 28.48 0.10 11.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 18.94 0.16 33.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 33.69%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
He basket average managed to stem the tide and 100%
90% return a small gain on the week, even as the six
80%
losers (BAY.v, EDG.v, KLDC.v, PA.v, STS.v, SURG.v) 70%
60%
outweighed the three winners (ARIC.v, DMX.v,
50%
LMS.v), with just VAU.v remaining unchanged. That 40%
30%
was mainly thanks to the 14.8% added by biggest
20%
winner Awalé (ARIC.v), though Aston Bay (BAY.v 10%
0%
down 16.7%) tried its best to make the week
another loser.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): Another assay result
from SURG and another week in which it either got unlucky with timing, or the market again
failed to appreciate that long hits of low grade in this region are still likely economic. The NR on
Tuesday November 12th (11) reported three holes, here’s the assay table from the NR:
22
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Of the three, hole 255 was the stand-out in
numerical terms and made the NR title line,
“Surge Copper Intersects 320 metres grading
0.46% CuEq from 10 metres depth including
88 metres grading 0.87% CuEq at the Berg
Deposit”, as not only do we get good CuEq
but it also starts from near-surface. However,
#256 was also good, coming as it does on the
edge of the known Berg Stock zone and
improving the mineralized area inside the
OPEA pit shell. We can argue the toss as to
whether Berg is too dependent on its moly
kicker for viable economics, but 0.3% Cu is
enough to mine profitably in BC (see Copper
Mountain…or when that mine is actually
working the way it’s designed to work at least)
and the long lengths returned from surface
are all gravy.
Despite this SURG once again sold off and I’m
now at the point of thinking this is a valid
option for “leverage to copper” trades if the
metal turns around and starts catching a
serious bid again. I’m not wildly enamored
with the stock and understand how the lower
grades put people off, but the value investor
in me sees a large copper porphyry with a
great address and an active team of smart
people developing it. That’s a good combo at
these prices and you’re getting a lot of copper
for U$20m.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): Down just half a
penny on the week, POA managed to steady
the ship after its waterfall losses on disappointing drill news the week before (see IKN808) and
that’s about the best we could have hoped for this stock. Please note they’re still drilling at
Usicayos and if they hit something the momentum can quickly return, but
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): We didn’t even have to wait 24 hours after last week’s “still no
assays” note on ARIC for this (12) to drop:
“Awalé Hits 14.7 g/t Gold over 59 Metres at the Charger Zone, Odienné Project”
We got the much-delayed assay results from those six
holes and as this price chart (right) shows, the market
liked what it saw. Not massively though, the rebound
was from the “gap closed” lows we noted last weekend
and there’s a long way between this Friday’s 46.5c and
the highs we saw during Q2, but a win is a win and it
came on decent volume, so your author isn’t going to
start splitting hair and being too sniffy. Now for three
items to give a taste of this news in today’s notes, firstly
the CEO comment and here’s what Andrew Chubb had
to say for himself in the NR:
“We have now established the breccia’s true width at over 30 metres, within a 200-metre strike
length of breccia mineralization, and the very high-grade gold is concentrated in fold hinges
within this corridor. Importantly, our understanding of Charger’s structure has evolved, allowing
23

us to test our new fold model within the current corridor and step out to explore potential parallel
zones. With this refined structural model, we’re confident in continuing our success at Charger.
We are very pleased with the latest results and the successful outcome of this drill campaign,
which delivered multiple high-grade hits at Charger and drilling through 100m of the target
breccia body at depth. These holes established both grade and geological continuity of the
breccia mineralization. The 14 g/t Au over 59m in hole OEDD-100 has exhibited the same
grade consistency across the reported interval as the previous high-grade hits. We have also
ramped up our new field season last week, commencing a 4000m diamond drill program at BBM
and Charger,” commented Andrew Chubb, CEO of Awalé Resources.
That’s a lot of CEO comment quote for a tinycap stock in a publication like this, but context is
necessary this time and we need to see how ARIC views these results. Second up, this drill map
and this table from the NR:
Between the CEO comments, the visual and the numerical data, we surmise that ARIC has
managed to build a high-grading core of mineralization at Charger of the type that can be
mined. It may not be a multi-million ounce Utopia at this stage (in fact it isn’t, given what we
know and scratching numbers on a ciggypack, we can probably justify up to 500,000 oz gold
contained today, likely less) but it’s certainly mineable at those grades and depths. More
importantly, it’s a good start at Odienné, a place from which they can grow and add tonnage
and ounces.
Third and final, the personal take: The market may have rallied on this news and overall I
would call it a net positive, but at the same time there’s no reason to see this stock rally further
on this news, it’s going to need the type of banger assay we got in March to see this really run.
24

The above literature from ARICV is geologically sound and the comment from CEO Chubb that
they’re happy with the “…grade and geological continuity of the breccia mineralization..” is
valid, but I see no repeat of the 32m of 45.7 g/t Au here. ARIC is going to have to show more
than last week’s NR to get to the heights it reached early year (and man, those insider sales at
the time really haunt my memory now).
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile and BHP
Starting today Sunday and running to Wednesday, the world’s biggest mining company BHP is
conducting a well-publicized site visit and media tour of two of its major copper assets in Chile,
La Escondida and Spence. According to strong rumours (that BHP is doing an official “no
comment” about), part of the tour is a presentation in which BHP will reveal it plans to invest
between U$7Bn and U$12Bn (or “at least seven billion” according to some sources) in its
Chilean copper assets in the next few years in order to increase production at the mines. This
fits with the comments made by BHP CEO Mike Henry to Bloomberg last week (13) about the
forecast increase of copper demand to 2050 and what the company plans to do about it (see
Copper Basket).
Peru and China
The annual APEC meeting of Pacific Rim countries was held in Lima Peru last week and I almost
commented on the event in IKN808 last weekend, but decided not to because it wasn’t going to
have much directly to do with mining and was mostly about protocol, politics and a head-to-
head summit between the outgoing President of The USA Biden and the Gonna-Be-There-
Forever head of China, Xi. However, there were two events worthy of our consideration and
both were Peru-China related.
Firstly, President Xi went to the new Chancay port to make the official opening (it’s been
running a few months, but that’s okay). The U$3.5Bn civil works project was funded by China
and is testament to the commitment China has for Peru as a trade partner, as well as its plans
to supply its national growth policy with raw materials of all types from South America.
Secondly, following a protocol meeting between Peru’s Boluarte and China’s Xi, their respective
mining ministers signed a (14) Memorandum Of Understanding to deepen the trade relations
between the two countries, specifically in the oil & gas and mining sectors. Though the MOU is
technically non-binding, these deals are taken very seriously by China (and in this case, Peru is
feeling very special and proud about its deal) and points to the future of the relationship. In the
MOU, the two sides pledge that “…both the Minem and the National Development and Reform
Commission of the People's Republic of China, within the framework of their powers, work to
strengthen the promotion of mining investment, encouraging more Chinese companies to
actively participate and invest in mining exploration and exploitation projects in Peru,
maximizing the use of resources.” In other words, this piece of paper now gets waved in front
of Chinese mining companies who are told “go find a mine in Peru because the Peruvians are
welcoming our investment cash with open arms as from now”. Something to consider, North
America.
Ecuador: Election polling and Colombian power
Good news for Ecuador’s incumbent President, Daniel Noboa, late last week when Colombia’s
parliament voted to make the necessary changes in Colombian law to allow it to export
electricity to its neighbour. Ecuador has been suffering from chronic power shortages for
several months (due to several factors, but the main one is how the country bet of hydroelectric
25

dams to provide its power but the recent drought conditions have reduced many of the supply
rivers to a trickle). The most recent power rationing has seen rolling, eight hour power cuts
across the country and while the populace has shown restraint toward the government’s
(mostly) inherited dilemma, patience is now running thin. Last month Noboa traveled to
Colombia to ask President Petro (and Congress) directly if they could export some of their
excess generation supply, last week’s law change is a result of that visit and soon, Ecuador’s
power issues will see relief.
All this comes not a moment too soon for Noboa, as a voter intention poll published this
weekend (15) by respected local polling company Comunicaliza puts the race for the February
2025 vote as follows:
 Daniel Noboa (incumbent): 27.5%
 Luisa González (Rafael Correa opposition alliance): 26.7%
 The rest: Nowhere
 Undecided: 19%
 Won’t vote/Will spoil ballot: 10.8%
With three months to go, it’s now clear that the election is a two-horse race. We’ve also seen
Noboa lose around six points and González pick up the same amount since the last
Comunicaliza poll, with voters making specific mention of the power cuts as the reason for their
growing disdain for the Noboa government (and therefore candidacy), in other words the deal
with Colombia hasn’t come a moment too soon. As for “The Rest Nowhere”, that’s a practical
way of covering the also-rans at this stage as even third place in the polls, Jan Topic, has been
disqualified from running due to inscription irregularities.
Overall, the scenario is good for President Noboa and is chances for re-election (or technically,
election for a full mandate). The last two presidential elections in Ecuador have shown the
ceiling vote for the left-wing Rafael Correa party clearly, with their candidate getting to the
second round run-off easily but failing due to the way Ecuador votes against him or her for
“least worst” reasons. The wild card as even is the indigenous CONAIE pressure group and its
large bloc of votes and indeed, they were out in the streets of Ecuador on Friday 15th,
protesting against the government and making their eight key demands for governance (which,
as usual, include the stop of mining activity in the country). However, this election coincides
with a CONAIE at a lower level of influence than in other years and the likelihood of a Noboa
victory is now growing, especially as the deal with Colombia is going to help the power supply
problems no end.
Market Watching
New Found Gold (NFGC) (NFG.v) and a 43-101
We recently ran some notes on New Found Gold (NFGC) (NFG.v), the highly touted exploreco
developing the Queensway project in Newfoundland, Canada. Our short series was prompted
by the publication of a well-argued and credible short report out of Iceberg Research dated
September 19th, started with “New Found Gold (NFG.to) (NFGC): A Queensway crystallization
moment” in IKN801 dated September 22nd, went on in IKN802 the next weekend and closed
with “Trying not to obsess over New Found Gold (NFG.v) (NFGC)” in IKN803, dated October 6th
(a self-explanatory title on why we let the subject drop since then). Two things to report since
that time:
 The short thesis is playing out. This two month chart shows the moment the short report
dropped and the development of the NFGC share price since then, compared to GDX. The
sector is down in the period yes, but NFGC’s drop is far greater and justifies the short
argument on its own (we do of course assume Iceberg positioned beforehand at even higher
prices).
 NFG showed another weak flank last week. Post-close Friday (in fact, very and suspiciously
late at night) NFGC filed a new 43-101 compliant technical report on Queensway, that in
26

essence, exists to justify its next stage of development. The report recommends a two-stage
exploration program from here focusing on specific targets at the project and with a total
budget of C$72m. As NFGC currently has C$35m treasury the implication is clear, that NFGC
is going to use this report as its reason to tap sponsors (e.g. Eric Sprott) and raise more
capital at the current low prices.
NFGC is scheduled to deliver a maiden resource and PEA in 2025 and while the resource will be
interesting, the acid test comes when NFG offers up its first pass (i.e. most optimized) mining
plan and operating economics. The advent of this new 43-101 suggests that the company isn’t
happy with the amount of tonnage it will be able to include in the current resource and/or PEA.
Semi-related (or we’ll at least try to tie it all together in the final paragraph) to the
recommendation of a C$72m two-stage drilling and exploration program, the 43-101 technical
report filed on Friday also ended with a standard “Risks and Uncertainties” section (page 323, if
you’d like to look it up). One of the four underscored the main issue with this mineral deposit:
“Although NFG’s exploration work is defining board zones of mineralization, the gold
mineralization can be erratic over short distances, which creates difficulties in building local vein
network and gold mineralization models.”
That’s a mouthful of words to say “continuity is a problem”, something we’ve known for a long
time and one of the main reasons this high-grade rock was passed over for mining in the
decades prior to NFG’s arrival there.
The bottom line: With around C$35m in treasury and a burn rate that typically gets through
double the amount of money that goes into its exploration budget, the 43-101 out of NFGC late
Friday strongly suggests that in order to advance the project, the company is about to tap the
markets for more funding. At a best guess NFGC will need to raise between C$100m and
C$150m to make good on its current plans and deploy the recommendations as laid out in this
43-101 Technical Report, but even if it doesn’t it’s going to need more funding at some point in
2025. In that light, the timing of this 43-101 suggests it is part of a marketing ploy. We know
that Eric Sprott is a big sponsor and promoter of this story (he’s in at mostly higher prices for a
total of around $260m) and he’s bound to be approached as a source of funding, but there is a
notable absence in the current NFGC ownership roster, that of a large mining company taking a
strategic position. This is an issue, because “getting a strategic” these days is akin to a franking
of your project in terms of quality and prospectivity. It’s one thing the market looks for from its
targets and with NFGC’s share price in chronic decline, they’d surely like to get a big player in
as a holder, in order to shore up Queensway’s reputation and potential as Canada’s next big
multi-million ounce high grade gold mine.
Therefore, we may be about to get another clear pointer on Queensway: Assuming NFGC
moves to raise capital soon, it will be telling whether it manages to get a large mining company
in as corporate strategic sponsor, taking the typical 9.9% or 19.9% and putting a director on
the NFGC board. If it can, the company would kill two birds with one stone by raising the
money to push ahead aggressively and get a “seal of quality” from a larger PM mining company
at the same time. It must be in NFGC’s interest and at the current discounted levels, there’s no
excuse for a major that’s been on the sidelines, waiting for a value-laden entry point. However,
27

this is a double-edged sword and if NFGC moves to raise capital but doesn’t manage to get in a
new large strategic, it would be a signal to the market that the big guys have almost certainly
looked and almost certainly don’t like what they see. All in see, another crystallization moment
in the offing at NFGC on the back of last Friday’s filing.
Gold Fields (GFI) and Regulus Resources (REG.v)
An interesting development for the Regulus Resources (REG.v) AntaKori project in Peru last
week, here’s Reuters (16) with the news, your author adds some bold type:
Nov 14 (Reuters) - Gold Fields (GFIJ.J) may look for buyers for its smaller mines in Ghana and
Peru to focus on bigger operations and is hoping to make new mineral discoveries at both mines
to enhance their appeal, CEO Mike Fraser said on Thursday.
Gold Fields shares were down 4% at 0842 GMT.
The Johannesburg-based gold miner is shifting focus to advancing its new Salares Norte mine in
Chile as well projects belonging to Osisko Mining, which it recently bought for about $1.6 billion.
Gold Fields could potentially sell its Damang mine in Ghana where it is only processing
stockpiled ore after stopping mining operations last year, Fraser said.
The miner could also seek buyers for its Cerro Corona mine in Peru - which has five years left on
its lifespan - the CEO added.
So much for “competitive tension”. One of the pillars of the REG strategy to extract value from
its AntaKori project has always been to promote the fact that there is more than one operator
and/or interested company in AntaKori and it isn’t tied to Coimolache (i.e. Buenaventura) as its
only possible buyer. Gold Fields at Cerro Corona, just a few clicks down the road and known to
be coming to the end of its reserve life, was an integral part of the marketing but with this
development, it seems less likely REG can bank on the South African Tier One player to provide
the exit. At the same time, we note that Buenaventura/Coimolache continues to studiously
ignore its next door neighbour REG.v and has moved ahead with its plans to build and operate
its own copper/gold sulphide mine on the site of its Coimolache oxide gold deposit. Prosaically
named Coimolache Sulfuros, it’s moved off the drawing board and in Q3, the BVN-led JV
applied for environmental permitting for its project which may be right next door to AntaKori,
but will be 100% on BVN owned concession lands with a mine life that means it could run for
decades without ever needing rocks from anywhere else.
The Achilles’ heel of AntaKori has always been this; it is behest to BVN in BVN’s very own
backyard and the big Peru miner can afford to let REG at AntaKori wither on the vine if it so
desires. Or put another way, REG needs BVN (and even more so now that GFI is planning on its
sale), but BVN does not need REG…not even slightly.
There’s still the potential that any eventual buyer of
GFI Cerro Corona would be interested in buying REG
at the same time (or later) as part of a master plan
to unlock the region and create an new mining
operation up there, so it’s not as if REG is at a
complete dead end. However, the news that GFI is
considering an exit is a net negative for REG at
AntaKori and once the market words that out I fear
the rally we’ve seen in the stock this year,
apparently predicted on a simplistic “This thing has
to be bought out!” sentiment, will reverse.
That lithium dump
Obviously it wasn’t only lithium miners that got hit last week, but the acceleration in the price
drop of the stock we mostly featured in last week’s note on the upcoming supply glut in the
metal, Patriot Battery Metals (PMET.to) (PMT.ax)…
28

…, along with other Li stocks, was notable. PMET dropped 17.6% last week to a new multi-year
low of C$2.67, the last time the stock traded at this level was the summer of 2022, just as the
lithium metal price craziness started to gather momentum.
I’m no expert on lithium, in fact I know enough to be dangerous. Indeed, the notable lack of
lithium stocks covered and reco’d on these pages is fruit of that, if you like it’s the flipside of the
quote used in last week, “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you
know for sure that just ain't so.” By avoiding the sub-sector I avoid getting into trouble (QED),
but I do know a broken stock price when I see one and that chart above is an archetype
example.
Conclusion
IKN809 is done, we end with bullet points:
 A day late and a dollar short, I hope the content helps assuage the annoyance of this
week’s late arrival. Once again. Please accept my apologies.
 Aftermath Silver (AAG.v) has the right look about it but, in a perfect world, I get the
chance to pay lower than Uncle Eric before it starts motoring higher. Watch List is the
right place for the moment.
 Semi-related, I’m happy to be holding cash in this current nervy market as we move
into Tax Loss Selling season. Red Pine (RPX.v) may be an exception. But aside that one
I’m most likely to hold onto the cash until after Christmas and then find some deep
sales prices before January comes around. It’s a plan, what could possibly go wrong?
 Barrick looks cheap and I didn’t expect to say that again this year.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
29

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2740-tsx-venture/aag/168790-aftermath-
silver-s-berenguela-metallurgical-testwork-yields-high-silver-recoveries.html
(2) https://x.com/Mark_IKN/status/1846539080886108235?t=1IFjbKeeXYDs1g-3rKzJxw&s=03
(3) https://redpineexp.com/red-pine-commences-2024-25-drilling-program-at-the-wawa-gold-project/
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nak6849rvwo
(5) https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/Spreadsheet-Growth-Redefined.xlsx?v=0.610
(6) https://www.xm.com/au/research/markets/allNews/reuters/copper-price-could-fall-to-8500-as-trump-win-boosts-
dollar-threatens-demand-53968888
(7) https://www.mining.com/web/soaring-demand-for-copper-will-help-drive-mergers-bhp-ceo-says/?s=03
(8) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-announces-closing-of-c-34.5-million-upsized-bought-
deal-offering/
(9) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-closes-c-3.1-million-private-placement-with-nuton-llc-a-
rio-tinto-venture/
(10) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-announces-29-million-strategic-investment-by-south32/
(11) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-intersects-320-metres-grading-0.46-cueq-from-10-metres-
depth-including-88-metres-grading-0.87-cueq-at-the-berg/
(12) https://awaleresources.ca/2024/11/11/awale-hits-14-7-g-t-gold-over-59-metres-at-the-charger-zone-odienne-
project/
(13) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/adelantan-que-bhp-invertiria-entre-7-mil-y-12-mil-dolares-en-el-cobre-de-chile/
(14)https://energiminas.com/2024/11/15/peru-y-china-suscriben-memorando-de-entendimiento-sobre-promocion-de-
inversion-en-mineria/
(15) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/daniel-noboa-y-luisa-gonzalez-estarian-en-un-empate-tecnico-en-las-
proximas-elecciones-segun-encuesta-nota/
(16) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-fields-may-sell-smaller-mines-focus-new-canadian-osisko-
assets-2024-11-14/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
30

Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
32

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
33