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The IKN Weekly
Week 808, November 10th 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Unburdened by what has been, This week in
US Macro.
Fundamental Analysis: Coeur’s (CDE) good Q3 means it’s time to take profits on SilverCrest
(SILV), A clear strategy for Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v).
Stocks to Follow: Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to), Red Pine Exploration
(RPX.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Element 29 (ECU.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Arizona
Sonoran (ASCU.to), Hercules Metals (BIG.v), American Eagle (AE.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to), Dundee Precious Metals
(DPM.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Palamina Corp (PA.v), Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v), Awalé
Resources (ARIC.v).
Regional Politics: Deferred .
Market Watching: Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): Watch List material, Argenta Silver (AGAG.v):
That didn’t last long, A lithium price warning.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I am a seller of two stocks in the days to come:
 SilverCrest Metals (SILV) is a logical decision on the back of the good Coeur
Mining (CDE) 3q24 results out last week. Details in today’s mina Fundies section
 Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) comes as something of a surprise to me, but the news
from the company last week has given the perfect excuse to cash in at a time
when raising cash seems like a smart idea. Details in today’s Stocks to Follow
notes section.
In today’s edition
 Trump won with a clear mandate, the market reacted here we are. That’s not only the
theme of today’s main intro note, but it gets a mention in several other places as well.
 The urge to add to the cash treasury has suddenly shot up and I’m not longer straining
at the leash to deploy every single dollar I own in equities. A pause to watch and reflect
is in order and some more profit-taking in two trades. Goodbye and thank you to
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) and SilverCrest (SILV).
 However, there are still a lot of tempting trade options out there and last week’s selling
has brought several into a new and interesting price range. First among those is
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v), which goes on the Watch List as from next weekend.
 Several big boy precious metals producers reported last week, we pick on the good
(WDO.to) and the bad (DPM.to) in today’s Producer Basket.
1

 Also in today’s Stocks to Follow note,, a few extra thoughts on why I’m in no rush to
judgment on the Minera Alamos (MAI.v) purchase of Sabre Gold and a reiteration of the
trade strategy for Libero Copper (LBC.v)…which is basically buy low sell high, but the
details matter as well.
 Other things, too. There are always other things.
Unburdened by what has been
Trump won, the broad market rallied and I won that modest bet with my friend who paid up
very promptly, fine and honourable chap he is. That will do for direct references to the major
events of last week, though of course it provides much of the backdrop for what happened to
the prices of the things we care about on these pages (e.g. gold bullion, tinycap explorecos,
etc) so we’re going to have to mention it a few more times. Starting now.
The main intro section of IKN804 dated October 13th, “Political risk management and hot
buttons”, mused on what might happen if Trump won the Presidential election and while I
stressed then it wasn’t a prediction (and still do today, I am not your US political soothsayer)
we still walked through what it might mean to the price of gold and to mining stocks in general.
Here’s how the note ended:
“At any given moment, there are more important things in this world than the price of gold and
this intro isn’t trying to gaze deeply into any crystal balls and predict where gold might be in
three months, or six, or even a year from now. By then other influences are likely to have taken
hold and gold may be trading higher whoever is in the Oval Office, but that doesn’t discount our
risk management message for October 2024: A Trump victory is a likely boost US equities, the
same Risk On scenario as 2016 and a natural headwind to the price of gold. Anyone long gold,
particularly long its derivative plays such as precious metals mining stocks, should at least
consider what a down leg in the monetary metal would do to their overall portfolio in the event
of a Trump victory next month.”
Here’s a five day chart of the main PM miners’ ETF (GDX, black line), the main gold bullion ETF
(GLD, gold line) and the S&P500 to represent the broad markets:
Can you see when the U.S. Election result hit trades last week? Yeah, me too. In fatc and in
general, I thought gold did really well to hold the U$2,700/oz line after the initial drop
Wednesday morning. However, that doesn’t negate that our ballpark on the markets in the
event of a Trump win was fairly accurate.
Which begs the obvious question: What happens next?
The answer: I don’t know.
Seriously. However, what I do know is that it has put a new light on my recent sales of Florida
Canyon Gold (FCGV.v), Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) and American Eagle (AE.v), all last month.
It’s also helped the decision to sell SilverCrest (SILV.) into last week’s rally prompted by the
good Q3 from its buyer Coeur (CDE) (see today’s main Fundies section) and while by no means
the real reason, does nothing to hinder the rather unexpected decision to sell Newcore Gold
(NCAU.v) (see Stocks to Follow notes for that one).
2

Up to last week, I was banging the table about being fully long the market even with those
three documented sales, stating that I was keen on putting the raised cash back to work. That’s
now changed and while I’m not predicting a wholesale crash or anything of the sort, it now
feels right to let that treasury alone for a while and see how the chips fall in the new scenario
for metals and mining, the New Trump Era if you want. He has the White House, the Senate,
the House of Representatives and the Popular Vote mandate (he even has the Supreme Court
on his side, if that counts as an influence on metals prices), he also has a term under his belt
and will move into the Oval Office with a clearer idea of how to enact policies from the word go.
Please note the verb used above, “…it now feels right…”. Chosen carefully, that’s what this is at
the moment as I write these words on a Saturday evening, one week after a highly respected
pollster in Iowa had warned the world of a Kamala Harris surge in her home State (and by
inference, the country). We’re very early in this process and rather than jump to a conclusion,
I’m going to watch and see how the chips begin to fall. That includes the gold price action, it
also includes the next item on our agenda, Mr. Jerome Powell.
Jus one day after the election result was known, the FOMC announced a 25bps cut decision
that surprised nobody. There wasn’t much in the press release wording to cause controversy
either, so Fed fun only came when Jerome Powell was asked by reporters whether he’d resign if
asked to by President-Elect Trump. The first question got a one word answer, “No”. A couple of
minutes later, another reporter went back to the subject and got this answer:
Powell: “Not permitted under the law.”
Reporter: “Not what?”
Powell: Not. Permitted. Under. The. Law.”
I was on the live feed and literally laughed out loud. The bad punctuation is mine, trying to get
across the way in which Powell repeated his curt answer word for word before moving on. For
the full effect you really have to see the moment, video clips are available online. He’d
obviously been thinking about the issue that day and had probably known the legal situation
2020 clash with Trump. By way of a quick recap and scene check, Powell was installed as Fed
chair in 2018 by Trump, the two then clashed over Fed policy decisions made during the Covid
crisis, Powell was duly reappointed by incoming President Biden and will serve until May 2026.
To that, we add that Trump has been critical of some of the Fed policies during the Biden
years, particularly those related to the inflation wave that hit post-Covid and there’s no doubt
Powell, Yellen etc made an error with all that “transitory” thing. So considering the potential mix
of factors…
 A Fed that’s looking to cut
 A President-Elect who is looking to introduce his own macro policies (e.g. those
tariffs) and has already stated he’d like to “have a say” in what the Fed does going
forward
 A clash of personalities (let’s put it nicely) between people with previous history
…the potential for disruption is there, all right. As the markets tend not to like uncertainty,
there are all sorts of scenarios that might affect the U.S. Dollar (and therefore gold) are out
there. It’s not a case of being nervous or suddenly bearish on the prospects for gold, copper,
silver etc, it’s merely the desire to go into cautious mode for a while. It’s a feeling.
This week in US Macro
With the big event of the year now behind us and resolved, any new data may seem like
scribbling in the margins but we do need to pay some heed to this week’s Consumer Price
Inflation reading out of the US BLS, due to drop Wednesday morning (with PPI the next day,
for those so concerned). According to the reliable Calculated Risk (1) “…consensus is for a
0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up
2.6% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.3% YoY.” That means we’re we’re going to get
some sort of political level “Inflation Is Not Going Away” spin even if things come in as
expected, it also leaves room for a hot CPI number that would concern those who crunch
numbers for a living. The potential for the start of crossfire between Fed and the President-
3

Elect’s transition team is there too, any high inflation reading would give the Fed less room to
cut in the way it wants. Just a few days ago, another 25bps cut in December was considered a
done deal, this weekend it’s priced at 70% probable and that means there will be plenty of
eyeballs on the CPI number Wednesday.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Coeur’s (CDE) good Q3 means it’s time to take profits on SilverCrest (SILV)
The main fundies note in IKN804 dated October 13th was “SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) Q3
production and thoughts on Coeur Mining (CDE)”, in which we did the numbers fresh out of our
main silver investment and then turned focus on the company that had just announced its
friendly buyout of SILV, Coeur Mining (CDE). We covered plenty of different angles of both SILV
and CDE in that edition, but one of the main matters at hand was to decide what to do about
the holding in SILV. The choices were fairly straightforward, either 1) sell then and bank the
SILV cash 2) wait for the merger to consummate and sell 3) become a CDE shareholder in 2025
and let the bet ride.
After deciding to let it run for at least for a while, IKN804 turned its attention to CDE and what
would likely become a catalyst moment for the stock, its 3q24 earnings report due to drop on
the evening of November 6th. On that, we boiled down the issue to this question: “What does
Eric Fier see in CDE that he likes more than any other suitor company out there, enough to
want to become a member of its board instead of taking a fully deserved retirement?” From
there, the argument developed that Fier was expecting good things from CDE going forward
and that was one of the main reasons he was good about an all-paper deal with the larger
company at this point (as well as taking a seat on its board). That discarded the idea of selling
immediately, we then thought about when to sell (if at all). Here’s a quote from IKN804:
“…whether to “replace” SILV by leaving the position untouched and allowing the shares to
become a longer-term holding in CDE. For one thing you’d be aligning yourself with the
SILV CEO and as laid out above, there’s probably good reason to do just that (aside from
the good fortune Mr. Fier has brought us already, of course). Personally speaking, I think
I’m going to stick to my original plan and cash in my shares of SILV, either a) just before
or after the consummation of the merger in 1q25 or b) after the SILV and CDE 3q24
financials are in and the market has reacted. My two reasons are strictly personal, as 1)
“New Coeur” at over U$4Bn market cap is not the size of mining company I generally
target and as it happens, I already have Eldorado Gold (EGO) in that role, then 2) at 63%
gold 37% silver revenues mix, it’s not enough silver exposure for my taste and again, EGO
covers this spot in my portfolio.”
IKN808 back and in so many words, the plan was to
wait and see the CDE Q3 numbers and then decide,
but at some point I’d be a seller. That’s the
preamble done, time to get up to date and on time,
CDE did indeed drop its 3q24 financials and this
five-day chart comparing it to the precious metals
benchmark ETF (GDX) shows what happened:
Pleasingly, CDE beat the street with a 13c EPS, the
market duly applauded and the stock rallied,
showing a thirteen point relative strength vs GDX on
the week and closing up nearly 8%. Not bad at all in
last week’s volatile and nerve-strewn market for
mining names. However, as this second price chart shows, it took until last week’s rally in CDE
shares to make the decision to hold SILV worthwhile. Discounting the run on all precious metals
stocks we saw in mid-October (easy to do, as there’s no way I was selling into that) the action
4

in the silver (and gold) markets have made the hold call a bit of a wash and this time last
weekend, I was down around 10% on the holding. Suffice to say the rally was welcome.
Here’s the reason CDE did well:
CDE: Gold sales and forecasts, per qtr
120000
110000
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Total gold sales of 96,913 oz (some 71.4% of the revenues mix and the driver of CDE these
days) beat our estimate for 3q24 by a cool 13,913 oz. As for silver, the 3.0045m oz in sales was
slightly lower than our 3.07m oz estimate, but the difference is a rounding error next to the
gold sales beat.
However, one thing I got totally wrong was the source of the beats. If you care to check in
IKN804, my guess was the newly improved Rochester mine would deliver improvements to
CDE. That was plain wrong, instead it was left to Palmarejo and Wharf to make the difference.
 At Palmarejo gold sales of 28,655oz made 3q24 the second best quarter in recent years
and beat our estimate by 4,655oz
 At Wharf, we occasionally get a blowout quarter and that's what happened here, the
mine selling 34,272 oz gold. That compares to our 22,000 oz estimate.
 Kensington also provided a small beat, selling 24,800 oz gold compared to our 23,000 oz
estimate.
 Indeed Rochester, far from the out-performer at CDE, was the only disappointment of
the four. While production and sales did increase compared to 2q24, it wasn't by much
and the 9,186oz Au sold was a lot lower than our expectations.
5
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1 tse52q2
oz Au CDE: Silver sales and forecasts, per qtr
Palmarejo Rochester Kensington Wharf Las Chispas 6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
source: company filings, IKN ests
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1 tse52q2
Moz Ag
Palmarejo Rochester Wharf Las Chispas
source: company filings, IKN ests
CDE: Rochester gold sales, per qtr
64611 9438 3946 2344
57191
5816 0518 6819 00531 00051 00051
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000 6000 4000
2000
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1 tse52q2
Oz Au CDE: Rochester silver sales, per qtr
source: company filings, IKN ests
579.0 077.0 596.0 606.0 962.1 537.0 589.0 890.1
000.2 000.2 000.2
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8 0.6 0.4
0.2
0.0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1 tse52q2
Moz Ag
source: company filings, IKN ests

Interestingly, CDE merely confirmed its guidance for 2024 after those big production beats from
two of its mines and due to that, I've stayed away from upping estimates for the four mines in
4q24. We are likely to get an improvement from Rochester at some point and a 15k oz quarter
is eminently possible, but I've cut the guess down
to 13,500 oz for 4q24 to be on the safe side. CDE: Consolidated metals sales (U$m), per qtr
However an be clear, if Palmarejo and/or Wharf
perform in the same way in q4 as they did this
quarter, CDE is going to blow guidance away
As for the cash end of the deal, with better than
expected production and the improvement in average gold and silver prices, gold revenues of
U$223.772m beat our U$200m ballpark estimate
by U$23.772m. and silver sales of U$89.704m
beat our U$86m estimate by three and change.
All that was enough to move the needle at CDE
and produce the beat. However, 13c isn’t exactly blowing it out and with a forward PE of 12.7X
this weekend, Coeur isn’t exactly a bargain stock. If there were more upside potential on a
fundamental level I wouldn’t be as quick to reach for the sell button on SILV, however the
current valuation doesn’t leave a lot of room and it would only take a couple of days of
weakness in the silver market (for some reason CDE is still more correlated to silver than gold,
despite 2/3rds of its revenue coming from gold) for the gains last week to disappear. I’m
therefore going to take a “Bird In Hand/Two In Bush” stance on this trade and sell this coming
week. First and foremost because I’m going to sell at some point anyway and don’t plan on
holding CDE into 2025 (if your plans are different I salute you and have no arguments),
secondly because raising treasury at the moment seems like a good idea.
I am therefore selling SilverCrest (SILV) in the days to come and booking the win. The trade
hasn’t turned out the way I thought it would and I still think CDE is getting in at a bargain
price, but with the duo now trading as if one it’s time to face reality. I got into SILV thinking it
was good for a +80% win potential and I’m leaving with a likely +50% in pocket, so cannot
complain too much.
A clear strategy for Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v)
Last week brought unexpected and pleasant news from our speculative copper play that’s been
on a bit of a tear recently, as Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v) announced Tuesday (2) it had
reached a funding deal with Nuton, an arm of industry giant Rio Tinto (RTZ), that essentially
makes RTZ its latest strategic partner at the large Altar project in San Juan province, Argentina.
The title line was “Aldebaran Signs Option to Joint Venture Agreement with Nuton Holdings Ltd.
(a Rio Tinto Venture) for the Altar Project in San Juan, Argentina” and the first paragraph has a
nice, juicy dollar number:
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Nov. 07, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Aldebaran Resources
Inc. (“ Aldebaran ” or the “ Company ”) (TSX-V: ALDE, OTCQX: ADBRF) is pleased to announce that it has
entered into an option to joint venture agreement (the “ Option Agreement ”) with Nuton Holdings Ltd.
(“ Nuton ”), a Rio Tinto venture, whereby Nuton can acquire a 20% indirect interest in the Altar project by
making staged payments totaling US$250 Million.
Does that make Altar worth U$1.25Bn, or the implied
60% of it owned by ALDE worth U$750m, or C$6,05 per
share (U$4.42)? No, sorry, but it does put a clear
valuation on the stock today as well as update our
strategy on our trade position. It’s also why ALDE’s
shares did what they did last week (right). Very
welcome, too. We now consider this deal piece by piece
(or as they say in Argentina, “Como dijo Jack el
destripador, vamos por partes”), because once the
driver is identified, it gives a better idea of the strategy
6
25
851 06 721 65 121 55 041
47
881
16
251
86
451
09
422
801
312
151
052
151
052
450
400
350
300
250
200
150 100
50
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1 tse52q2
U$m
Silver
Gold
source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests

required to get as much out of this trade before cashing in.
To begin, we know that Nuton has entered into deals with several juniors recently (ASCU.to,
REG, MIN.v etc) as it develops its in-house copper sulphide leaching technology that aims to
unlock lower grading copper deposits by allowing them to be heap-leached, instead of the
standard milling/flotation/processing that sulphide deposits currently require. However, this is
the first time Nuton (or RTZ via Nuton) has taken this extra step and committed to fund a
junior to PFS stage in exchange for a significant percentage of the project. It’s also an
innovative and smartly constructed deal, explained well by the ALDE team in this webinar video
on Friday (3) (well worth a watch, promise) but for the laundry list, we’ll go with the bullets
offered by the NR with your author parsing the points:
 Non-dilutive financing with an upfront payment of US$10M
In other words, already paid
 US$20M projected for Q4-2024 after the publication of an updated mineral
resource estimate, if Nuton elects to proceed
That will be soon. In the webinar, CEO John Black confirmed that the Altar MRE will be out by
the end of this month. Therefore, ALDE is effectively improving its cash position by U$30m
(CAD$41m) before the end of this year, more than enough to crack on with things.
 US$30M payment projected for Q2/Q3-2025 after the publication of a
Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) that includes a Nuton case, if
Nuton elects to proceed
The next payment is probably the most important. As well as quietly shifting the arrival date for
the PEA from “In Q2” to “Q2/Q3” (which means Q3, these people are notorious for letting
timelines slip, it means Nuton/RTZ will control 20% of the company for U$60m total as it moves
to the PFS stage. “But wait!”, you say, “They only get the 20% once the PFS is delivered and
they decide to pay U$190m!” Technically true yes, but in reality this bullet point…
 Final Payment of US$190M would be made after the publication of a Pre-
Feasibility Study (“PFS”) that includes a Nuton case, expected in 2026, if
Nuton elects to exercise the option
…means Nuton will use the PFS to decide whether to move on the entire project and buy ALDE
out, or let the idea drop without any further payment. In all stages of this deal, Nuton/RTZ has
20 business days to decide whether to move forward once the necessary document is delivered.
If it gets this far and RTX! Likes what it sees, it won’t spend U$190m and buy 20% of Altar, it
will surely buy all of ALDE at another price and circumvent the deal. Or alternatively, if there’s
competition for Altar and RTZ ends up the underbidder, it can trigger the U$190m payment and
benefit accordingly (i.e. it has a ton of leverage). It gets all that by paying U$60m to get to PFS
stage, rather than paying U$190m after the contents of the PFS are known.
As for how the RTZ/Nuton money enters the project, this slide (right) taken from the Webinar
on Friday is the best explanation. The subsidiary holding Altar, Peregrine Metals, is currently
owned 80% by Aldebaran and 20% by JV Partner Sibanye Stillwater (or will be very soon, a
couple of minor technical details notwithstanding). Nuton comes in by funding the 80% put in
by ALDE, with SBSW adding its pro rata 20%. That means if Nuton triggered the final deal as
laid out above, overall ownership of Altar would be 60% ALDE, 20% SBSW, 20% Nuton/RTZ.
7

To get what’s going on in real terms, consider this deal from the Nuton/RTZ side: It’s clear
Nuton likes what it sees, they will also have a very good idea of what’s about to drop in the
MRE, out soon. We’ve always like Altar because of its sheer scale, that’s what majors want from
their copper projects and if Nuton can improve project economics here, they’re onto a real
winner. Conceptually it makes sense, because Altar is understood to have a simple flow-through
with relatively few deleterious elements in the concentrate, the prime issue is the low grade
compared to other deposits. The Nuton technology fits that profile to a tee as assuming it
works, they’ll be able to process low grade tonnes at a significantly lower unit cost and provide
the margins that a major wants from its high capex pipeline projects.
For U$30m they get control of all that, then when the PEA appears, another U$30m gives them
control until the real decision point arrives, further down the line in late 2026 (or knowing these
guys, 2027), the PFS. That’s when a major will make its yes/no decision on buying out this type
of project, certainly not at PEA stage but as long as it’s promising enough at PEZ, U$30m will
be a small price to pay to stay on board. In other words, for a U$60m outlay, RTZ will have an
effective first right of refusal on whether to buy ALDE out or not. That’s pocket change for a
company the size of RTZ, but it’s also all (or perhaps nearly all) the money ALDE will need to
keep its end of the deal up. And come the day, SBSW isn’t going to oppose a buyout (they’ll be
happy to get some money back). Perhaps the other big strategic holder of ALDE shares,
South32, will have something to say at some point but either way, Nuton/RTZ gets a lot of
leverage for a small price until the PFS appears.
At that point, we should expect the buyout offer to arrive and that’s important for us, the grunt
little retail shareholders hanging on the coattails of the big players now circling ALDE at Altar.
The logical sequence is simple enough, as if we can now assume with confidence that RTZ will
either make its move or not make its move in the 20 day periods after the PFS is delivered, we
also know it won’t make its move before then. Therefore, the upcoming period is going to go
quiet at ALDE, as the company moves first to complete its PEA in the first half of 2025, then
gear up and do all the heavy lifting type of work that turns PEA data into PFS data in the
second half of 2025 and then 2026. Therefore:
 This deal has put a clear floor in the valuation of ALDE and Altar. We shouldn’t expect
the stock to return to the lows of before, in fact quite the contrary, this clever deal has
injected some of the reality of what Altar is worth to the eventual buyer fairly early in the
development process. This is good.
 Coming soon is the next re-rate catalyst, the resource update (MRE). That could drop at
any moment and it’s one of the milestones this desk has anticipated for Altar, as it should
show a doubting world how sheer tonnage scale beats out relatively low grade to offer a
project with world class potential and the size majors look for in the modern era.
 After that comes the PEA, now probably in 3q25, which may or may not add value to a
project with economics that can be understood in a ballpark way by grunts like me. The
key value add here will be Nuton and we’ll probably get two sets of data, one with Nuton
applied and one “classic” mine plan.
 After that things will go quiet at Altar as the company tools up and does the heavy lifting,
then at some point in late 2026 or early 2027, the PFS will provide the trigger and the
most likely exit strategy, ALDE is sold to the highest bidder (hopefully RTZ).
The new trade strategy: Up to today, the plan at ALDE has been near-termist and somewhat
vague. Indeed, the recent run to C$1.50 or so had me wondering whether it might be a good
moment to cash in and take the near–term profit. Instead, I decided to wait until at least the
MRE and as luck would have it, that was a good decision. With the advent of this deal, the
scenario is now much clearer.
 If we hold until after the MRE, we’re likely to get a good re-rate in the share price
(assuming its contents are as positive as I expect).
8

 If we hold until the PEA, there may be some extra upside, particularly if copper rallies in
the first half of 2025. However, the project economics shouldn’t be too hard to grasp once
the MRE is available (and the PEA cost inputs will always be taken with a pinch of salt).
However and importantly, this deal means ALDE is highly unlikely to be sold after the PEA
and before the PFS.
 If we hold until the PFS we’ll get max value in theory, but the time will include a fallow
period for news and will also expose us to the vagaries of the copper metals market for up
to two years.
Therefore, the choice is now clear, for me at least: the optimum period to cash in and take
profits will be some time after the MRE is published. That’s coming soon and on its heels, we’ll
get the positive decision by Nuton to pay the next U$20m tranche. That should get us to
Christmas and once that’s done, early January often sees exploreco stocks rally into the New
Year as optimism reigns. That’s when I pan to sell my ALDE shares, January 2025. Be clear that
I like this deal a lot, but I’m not a multi-billion dollar transnational mining company with the
timelines and pockets to match. My job as a lowly retail player is to buy low, sell high and not
leave too much cash on the table at the moment of
taking profits. The post-MRE period is the right one
for that and as in any other trade, come the period
before the PFS and likely buyout window, there’s
nothing stopping me from buying back in and taking
advantage again. However, I see now reason to
hold through what may be up to two years of low
variation trading in ALDE, or at least trading that
only really reflects moves in the price of copper.
Stocks to Follow
A mixed bag of a week for our Stocks to Follow list which, considering all the upheaval on the
world stage, doesn’t feel like too bad a deal. Eight of our 17 open positions were week-over-
week winners (SILV, EGO, MARI.to, ALDE.v, MIRL.cse, PGDC.v, PAU.cse, MENE.v) and most of
the big moves were concentrated at the bottom of the table, with Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up
60.0%) leading the way and followed by Provenance Gold (PAU.cse up 26.3%), Mene Inc
(MENE.v up 23.8%) and Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 14.2%). Countering all that goodness were
eight losers (MAI.v, RIO.v, ARG.to, NCAU.v, LBC.v, PGZ.v, OCI.v, IPT.v) and while both of the
Top Pick stocks are in there, they weren’t hit badly and the worst loss of them all was the 8.3%
at Orecap (OCI.v), which was in real terms half a cent. Just one unchanged stock on the week
this time, that was Red Pine (RPX.v).
The dropping of Fitzroy from the Watch List last week means we’re down to 17 open positions
on our Stocks to Follow, three fewer than our self-imposed maximum. Eleven stocks are in the
green, one is unchanged, five are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.355 69.0% $0.75 first tgt
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.66 -17.5% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
SilverCrest Met SILV SELLING U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$10.31 49.4% Taking profits
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$16.65 0.6% undervalued midcap gold
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.72 11.7% Core copper position
9

Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.51 47.9% Quality Cu developer
Red Pine Expl RPX.v BUY C$0.105 8-Sep-24 C$0.125 19.0% New sm position, will build
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SELLING C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 65.9% selling on advisor appt
Libero Copper LBC.v SPEC BUY C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.425 25.0% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.11 -42.1% Cu jr, may add post financing
Orecap Inv OCI.v ADDING C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% still trying to add (illiquid)
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$1.89 162.5% finally moving up, hold to 1q25
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.24 -20.0% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.04 100.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.24 182.4% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.13 -72.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): SELLING. A did not expect to announce this today, having been a
happy and patient holder of NCAU stock for couple of years and ready to hold through another
quiet period if required. But the ness last week changed my mind almost instantly and at a
period in which I’m now ready to sell and add to treasury where possible, it came at the right
(or is that wrong?) moment as well. Here’s the NR (4), here’s how it starts:
Vancouver, BC – Newcore Gold Ltd. ("Newcore" or the "Company") (TSX-V: NCAU, OTCQX: NCAUF) is
pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Alan Pangbourne as a Strategic Advisor to the Company. Mr.
Pangbourne has more than 35 years of experience in the mining sector, and currently serves as Non-
Executive Director for OceanaGold Corporation as well as Non-Executive Director for Chesapeake Gold
Corp.
Alan Pangbourne is the person who took over Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) in 2021 and promised
to turn around that failing company and story through the use of new technology. His proposal
sounded straightforward enough; take the heap leach technology used at large-scale copper
operations he had previously worked on (e.g. in Chile) and apply it to the large, low grading
gold at the company’s Metates project in Mexico. It sounded reasonable at the time and as I
was looking for a way to add some speculative risk on gold to my portfolio at the time, and
Metates had a lot of very cheap in-situ ounces, I bought a few shares.
The Pangbourne era began in early 2021 and come the middle of that year, he was ready to
map out his timeline. In his view, the project depended on the ability to acid treat the sulphide
rock at Metates. The plan was to avoid the vast expense of a mill and heap-leach the resource,
with a two stage heap leach that would first treat the mineralization with acid, then crush the
result, then put it onto a second pad where it could be leached as if a classic oxide gold
10

deposit. Key to all this was met testing of the mineralization and Pangbourne mapped out a
timeline to mid-2022, at which time we’d known whether the plan would work. Between 2021
and 2022 Pangbourne did what CEOs do and marketed his plan and project, occasionally
provided visual examples of how the column leach testing of the Metates deposit was going.
But then mid 2022 came and went without a word and before we knew it, 2023 had come with
still no news for these key test results. Then in August 2023 Pangbourne suddenly announced
his resignation and a little while after that, the company announced test results for the Metates
mineralization that did nor show enough improvement in its composition for the plan t work on
an economic scale.
Around the time that Pangbourne resigned, I sold and realized my loss on the trade, a 43% hit
but one that was relatively small in real dollar terms. If that were all the story, one in which
Pangbourne swung for the fences and missed at Metates I wouldn’t be against him joining
NCAU today, however what I was told later by a geologist friend has changed my attitude. It
turns out that the Metates plan would never have worked because the amount of rock and acid
proposed to apply to a heap leach would have caused an overwhelming amount of acid run-off,
that would have been near-impossible to contain and risked serious contamination of the zone
surrounding zone the deposit. Or put another way, theoretically it might have worked, in reality
it would have been downright dangerous and impossible to get through a permitting track.
Pangbourne knew this from the word go but simply didn’t seem to care.
Therefore, seeing Pangbourne arrive as a strategic advisor to NCAU tells me this company
doesn’t do enough vetting of its appointments. Even worse, in his comment in the NR Alan
Pangbourne alludes to his plans for the deeper sulphides at Enchi, saying “…I am excited about
the prospect for Enchi to host a long-life gold camp
with the longer-term opportunity to unlock further
value from the higher-grade sulphide potential at
depth.” If the reason to bring him in is to add the
sulphides to the oxide/transition material in the
current mine plan, it’s an accident waiting to happen.
We’re at a point in the cycle where I don’t need much
prompting to take profits and this case is a bad
reflection on the judgment of NCAU’s management
team. I’ll take this excuse and leave with my profit.
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to): SELLING. A quick note to make sure the message as seen in
today’s main Fundies section isn’t missed. See above for a lot more.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): MAY STILL ADD. The idea to add some RPX as floated last
week is still valid, but as things turned out and the gravitational pull of the U.S. election took
over, I didn’t do anything about it and watched
from the sidelines as RPX bounced around
between 12c and 13c.
Although suddenly reticent to spend money, this is
the only place that might tempt me into a
purchase in the days to come (as long as the price
is right). The news from the week before last was
much better and more significant than the market
gave credit for, the type of proof of concept that
new CEO Michaud can and will provide the brains
trust to make this deposit into a real mine.
11

Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): Last week’s main fundies note, “Eldorado Gold (EGO)
(ELD.to) 3q24 earnings: To die on a hill” finished with these rousing words:
“While last week’s selling can be understood from a reactionary, near-term trader’s point of
view, fundamentally speaking it made a cheap mining stock even cheaper and by the time
2025 gets into gear, the extra money spent or ounces not produced in the quarter just
gone will look like a rounding error compared to what EGO has and will soon have. This is
the sound of your author, banging on the table.”
Or if you prefer, I’m a stubborn and ornery git. Anyway, EGO did this last week:
The +1.9% move week-over-week move might not be much in hard dollar terms and didn’t
counter the drop we saw the week before, but EGO was one of the very few mid-cap/large-cap
gold producers that had a winning week and notably, it did all the heavy price lifting after the
U.S. election result was known and gold sold off. Also, it seems I’m not alone in my view of
EGO going forward as BlackRock Inc increased its position in October. Here’s an excerpt from
the RegF, filed Friday evening:
October 11, 2024 – BlackRock, Inc. (for and on behalf of its investment advisory subsidiaries)
(“BLK”) bought 85,494 common shares on the New York Stock Exchange at 17.43 USD per share.
And…
As at October 31, 2024, BLK exercised control or direction over 26,330,206 common shares and
162,624 CFDs representing approximately 12.92% of the 204,909,496 issued and outstanding
common shares of the reporting issuer.
BlackRock may not be the paragon of capitalism, but it’s reasonably good company for a Tier 2
stock trade and they must see the same deep value that I do.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): Back at 6c after another week of flatline trading, it’s possible to pick up
shares at 6c, but there aren’t many around and patience would be required. Here’s our updated
and standard valuation table:
OCI.v: PRO FORMA Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.82 9.58 3.9
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.52 0.05 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.405 2.99 1.2
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.205 0.85 0.3
QCCU.v 39.10 0.135 5.28 2.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.04 0.99 0.4
subtotal 19.75 8.0
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 21.25 8.6
At 247.714 S/O
That’s a 43% arb now, thanks to the late Friday move in AE.v. Plenty of value here.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): The first soft week since we opened this position, which is perfectly
okay. The stock rose into the Monday open and briefly touched 50c for a trade or two, but from
12

there it was steady selling and the 42.5c closing price on Friday was reasonable, considering
the outside circumstances. LBC added a slice of promo with its November 6th NR (5)…
Libero Copper & Gold Corporation Announces Details of Ongoing 14,000-Metre Exploration
Program at the Mocoa Porphyry Copper-Molybdenum Deposit
…giving some details of what it plans at Mocoa in this program but that’s as maybe; we’re here
for the first drill hole assay and the market reaction to that, which will be our cue to sell this
trade.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): MAI traded quietly last week after its surprise announcement about
buying Sabre Gold and that’s fair enough. There’s clear support at 35c and while it would have
been nicer to see it up on the week, rather than down a penny, considering the volatile nature
of the market through the election it is at least understandable.
The thing that concerns me about the deal is the Sabre Gold share register. It’s better than it
used to be in the Bill Sherriff days (who still owns a small chunk, I gather) and the deal to swap
debt for paper is necessary and smart for the longer term financial security of New MAI.
However, “better” doesn’t mean there aren’t bagholders of SGLD.to who will see this
amalgamation as their opportunity to cash out and that also goes for the creditors willing to
take shares. From what I gather, the main players are happy enough about the deal to put the
company into the hands of adults and finally move Copperstone forward and that’s good, but
it’s difficult to see this merger happening without liquidations at the back end, at least by some
current holders of SGLD shares.
Long story short, I’m still not 100% comfortable about this merger. Be clear, I agree with most
of the plan and like the long-term concept driving the deal. Now is the right time to do this and
the sponsors from both sides are getting the right price, as well as an improved upside to this
bull market. However, it also likely means we’re going to see a period of calm trading and the
deal is going to sit on speculative cash and deter it from moving in on this (still severely)
undervalued company. We won’t have to worry (too much) about the 2024 Tax Loss Selling
season, as this 12 month chart sketches out for us
(right), but until the deal closes it’s going to take
news from the main side of MAI to see the shares
go up from here and then, once the deal closes, the
liquidation window will be open for any Sabre holder
looking to turn legacy shares into cash. As such, I’ve
changed the near-term sentiment call on MAI to
“buy” from “strong buy”, though even that is
debatable and perhaps it should be “hold” (which I
didn’t want to do because the Canadian sell side
often interprets “downgrade to hold” as “run away
now”).
13

The Copper Basket
After forty-five weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 27.25% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 2174.63 11.64 62.6%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 537.29 3.32 -19.6%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 419.93 4.51 31.5%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 320.96 1.89 112.4%
5 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.519 233.20 7.90 -33.1%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 196.53 0.96 52.4%
7 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 133.265 185.24 1.39 -20.6%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 115.50 0.50 -63.8%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 95.74 0.82 215.4%
10 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 77.00 0.325 -13.3%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 119.31 53.69 0.45 150.0%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 26.85 0.42 -27.6%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 23.45 0.135 12.5%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 76.381 23.30 0.305 -50.0%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 7.23 0.035 -50.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 27.25%
The run-good for the Copper Basket continues,
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
with a fifth winning week in a row and the last 30%
three coming firmly against the tide in this sub- 25%
sector. The basket average added another 1.3% 20%
15%
to hit a new 2024 high, despite the basic
10%
headcount showed an even split of seven winners
5%
(NGEX.to, SLS.to, LA.v, MARI.to, ALDE.v, FDY.to,
0%
AE.v) versus seven losers (BIG.v, ASCU.to, OCO.v,
-5%
CCCM.v, KDK.v, ECU.v, COR.v), with one stock
-10%
unchanged on the week (QCCU.v). There were big
percentage moves in both directions, with the
best from Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 14.2%) and
American Eagle (AE.v), then the worst from Kodiak (KDK.v down 15.2%), Camino (COR.v down
12.5%), Element 29 (ECU.v down 10.0%) and Hercules (BIG.v down 9.1%).
Considering the rollercoaster ride that copper-the-metal went on last week, seeing our basket
with net gains (again) is a decent result. This chart of our benchmark near-dated Comex
futures contract (HGZ24) shows how that long period of very tight trading ranges came to a
sudden halt on the eve of the U.S. vote and went on a wild ride, with a high of U$4.49/lb and
low of U$4.22/lb less than 24 hours later. Reminiscent of the squiggly line you get in hospital
dramas, when patient with heart failure is
revived by defibrillation, copper was
shocked by to life by a combo of factors.
For sure the events in The USA were on
everyone’s mind, but last week also saw
keen anticipation of a new Chinese macro
stimulus package, followed by generalized
disappointment from the market about the
relatively modest size and scope of the
measures announced by Xi’s government
of fun loving democratic paragons. The
anticipation of China throwing free money
at the free market capitalists turned to
14
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01
source: IKN calcs

selling (6) "...over the extent of fiscal stimulus measures announced by top metals consumer
China to reboot its lacklustre economy."
And yes, we have seen this movie before. One wonders how many times the market can pin its
hopes for near-term copper demand on the China Stimulus That’s About To Drop which never
seems to drop, or if it does falls short of elevated expectations. However, in this case the US
election result was certainly a factor in copper’s performance. This desk is normally rather
cynical about the overpaid stuffed suits providing commentary on the metals market for media
channels, but this time Nitesh Shah of WisdomTree has a valid observation:
That sounds right, it makes sense for China to hold back and not throw Yuan into a tariff black
hole, should one appear. Anyway, as this report puts it (7) "On a weekly basis, London copper
was set for a loss due to the disappointment in stimulus and amid concerns that Donald
Trump's U.S. presidential win could mean more trade frictions that will dampen growth and
metals demand." That sums up the week succinctly.
Now for our weekly look at the moves in world copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 Another net negative week for copper stocks in the three official futures systems, with
the global total this weekend at 492,704mt metric tonnes (mt), down 12,647mt on the
week and now for the breakdown on that number.
 The main moves were at the Shanghai SHFE, where inventories dropped by 13,559mt
to close at 139,662mt. That’s a normal move for this time of year and as the dedicated
SHFE tracking chart below shows, keeps 2024 at the upper end of its normal range.
 The LME saw a modest increase in overall stocks, up 1,025mt overall to close the week
at 272,400mt. Small drawdowns in Asia warehouses, countered by an arrival of
2,375mt of copper at its Rotterdam bonded warehouses. Minor stuff this week.
 Small moves at the Comex as well, down 113mt to close the week at 80,642mt. No
biggie this time, but we await to see which way these stocks jump in the wake of
Trump’s election victory after the recent big additions. We may have an interesting
bellwhether on our hands here.
As mentioned above, our dedicated SHFE chart shows 2024 now inside the realms of the
normal (just) after a weird mid-year. Peronally, I’ve had enough of weird and would like some
more normal in my life in 2025.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
15 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data

Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Element 29 (ECU.v): A week off after its rapid rise,
exploreco speculators are allowed to take profits and
that’s what last week’s net drop looks like to this desk. It’s
been a doozy of a run in recent weeks, so holders have
very little to complain about so far. We await the next real
catalyst, the first drill assays from the current Elida
program with a special eye on the returns at depth.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to) and Arizona Sonoran
(ASCU.to): This desk has made no bones about its clear
preference for FDY over ASCU when it comes to AZ Cu plays and in 2024, that’s turned out to
be the right call:
20/20 hindsight helps nobody, but on dialing up that chart this weekend and adding in the main
copper ETF (COPX) for market median purposes, I couldn’t help thinking that was one helluva
pair trade at the time. Enough of my esprit de l’escalier, loudmouths like me crowing about
trades they called but didn’t make is one of the most boring and annoying traits this sector
offers.
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): It bounces off the 50c line,
it goes back there. A couple of weeks ago we pointed to
BIG.v’s habit of returning to its 50c floor level and
trading off it, last week we noted that it had done so
again, so today we have to mention that BIG is back to
50c after another soft week and no real news. This stock
is not for me, but some traders among this audience
probably get a kick out of it.
American Eagle (AE.v): Now that I’ve sold my trading
chunk, we’re back to following AE down here in The
Copper Basket and last week saw lackluster trading
suddenly turn positive on Friday, when volume arrived
and the stock popped over the 80c line (again, making
my recent 69c sale look a little silly…oh well). There’s
obviously some sort of rumourmill going, so eyes on the
wires next week to see if NAK has more drill results for
us. Well, in fact it does and what’s up for debate is the
timing and quality of contents.
Although sold out of my trade I’m still rooting for the
company, not least because of its importance for the
recently expanded OreCap (OCI.v) position.
16

The Producer Basket
After 45 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 34.05% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 51.91 45.04 8.8%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 41.75 83.84 52.9%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 32.31 18.40 1.7%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 23.52 122.44 10.5%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 8.25 22.64 38.6%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.883 5.60 23.46 85.6%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.54 5.73 19.1%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 204.909 3.41 16.65 28.4%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.68 9.34 45.3%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.30 8.72 49.6%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 34.05%
The Trump victory in the U.S. election hit gold (GLD
proxy down 1.8%) and the precious metals miners
(GDX down 2.1%) as money went into the Dollar and
into stocks, with “USA Risk On” the trade motto of the
week. To be honest I thought it could have been a lot
worse and gold (just about) holding on to the
U$2,700/oz level was a strong showing and bullion is
still matching the s&P500 index on the 12 month
chart, even after last week’s moves. However, we did
get a classic “anti-dollar” move from gold, as seen on
the chart (right) mapping the dollar index (DXY)
against the gold continuous contract price (GC00).
As for our group of ten stocks, eight were week-over-week losers (NEM, GOLD, AEM, FNV,
PAAS, LUGDF, HL, DPMLF) and two were winners (EGO, WDOFF) and happily, I won a few
shares in one of them. As for the overall basket, its lead moved away from the +10% line
versus the GDX benchmark for the first time since early August and we’re now only 8.22%
ahead. Still a decent performance and, with less than two months left on the clock, a
comfortable enough lead but the last few weeks have taken some of the gloss off our lead.
That’s mainly to do with the silver exposure we added deliberately to the basket this year and
so it was again last week, with Hecla (HL down 10.5%) by far the biggest loser.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60% comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Several companies on our list of ten reported their 3q24 last week, including big player Barrick
(GOLD), silver leveraged Pan American (PAAS), 2024 star player Lundin Gold (LUG.to), Dundee
Precious Metals (DPM.to) and Wesdome Gold (WDO.to). The IKN Weekly isn’t set up to track
and provide deep DD on big companies, so getting a swathe of earnings at the same time
means we’re going to have to be selective in comments today. As this overly-busy five-day
chart (right) tries to show, the squiggly lines for LUG.to, PAAS, and GOLD remained at-or-about
17
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead) 2%
0%
ikn -2%
gdx control
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
source: IKN calcs -16%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

the level of the GDX benchmark on the week, indicating their results were “in-line” and this
desk agrees; We knew Lundin Gold was going to be good and it was, with record revenues and
earnings. We knew Barrick would be mediocre after its pre-announced production and sales
numbers that included ballpark costs guidance. As for Pan American, it managed to generate
decent free cash flow but its financial obligations continue to weigh on the stock. Of the three,
PAAS was probably treated a little harshly but with its patchy recent track record, there’s no
real reason to trust them going forward, either. Which brings us to our two outliers:
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd (WDOFF) (WDO.to): WDO outperforming peers in its earnings
week is a good sign. We already knew its production and sales numbers, so this was all about
costs and indeed, the numbers were pleasing to the eye:
WDO.to: Operations overview chart
18
496.66 111.15 385.51 139.16 253.06 975.1 328.16 283.56 955.3- 540.57 233.76 317.7 107.67 222.96 974.7 555.48 279.09 714.6- 696.96 514.97 917.9- 22.201 318.55 804.64 29.001 971.58 347.51
8.721
290.38
707.44 58.641
291.88
66.85
C$m
150
revenues
125
total op expenses
100 Op earnings
75
50
25
0
-25
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24 2q24 3q24
source: company filings, IKN calcs
Revenues of C$146.852m was due to an increase of 2,900 ounces sold compared to 2q24
combined with the healthy increase in average received price, as you’d fully expect by looking
at any gold spot price chart.
WDO: Gold production vs sales, per qtr
56522 75422 57303 00582 44392 00003 95514 44573 11652 00082 04272 00062 38822 00572 61153 00513 86382 00003 29903 00023 06772 00072 81263 02673 22333 00753 53044 00004 90154 00924
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000 20000 15000
10000
5000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
Ozt Au
Production
Sales
source: company filings

Costs were up slightly compared to Q2 but as this next chart shows, WDO kept a lid on mining
processing costs (up just C$290k) and the difference was mostly DD&A, understandable as
Kiena gets into gear.
WDO.to: Costs overview
100
90
80
70
60
50 40
30 20
10
0
Net earnings increased to C$38.999m or
26c/share, but our preferred benchmark for
WDDOI financial performance is operating
earnings per hare and that popped nicely to 39c.
That’s a 7.6X multiple to this weekend’s share
price (we stay in Loonies for this analysis, please
remember we use the US OTC in the table
above) and suggests there a little more leeway
for upside.
Over at the balance sheet, the only change to
report is that the harvesting of cash has now
begun in earnest. Spending on fixed assets is
now done (below left) and Kiena ramping well, so it’s time for WDO to reap the benefits of its
labours and cash increasing to C$82.515m (below right) is right on that schedule.
Also, as current liabilities are now largely paid
down (see “other working cap below left), the
result is a working cap position that’s suddenly
sprung from negative up to nearly C$60m.
Expect that to continue and at some point, WDO
will have to start thinking about how to
distribute that money to shareholders via
buybacks or dividends, else leave itself wide
open to an aggressive buyer.
Final fundies point, guidance remained
essentially the same and as noted a couple of
19
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
CAD$m WDO.to: mine processing costs per qtr
other expenses
G&A
depletion
mining process costs
Source: WDO.to filings, IKN calcs
64.32 20.51 20.41 39.12 85.02 12.32 00.22
02.13 57.63 54.53 42.93 60.44 04.74 03.14 66.45 34.64 83.35 69.25 63.05 56.05
60
55
50
45
40
35
30 25 20
15 10
5
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$m
source: company filings
WDO.to: operating earnings per share
02.0 02.0
11.0
10.0 20.0-
50.0 50.0
40.0-
70.0-
13.0
11.0
03.0
93.0
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$
source: company financials/IKN calcs
WDO: Fixed asset net additions, per qtr
8.3 9.6 3.4 3.9 4.9 1.9 3.71 1.81 6.01 9.8 6.61 8.21 8.4
1.611
6.23 2.33
6.22 1.41 0.42 1.02 0.2- 0.9- 1.6 1.0 3.41
3.2-
6.5
120
100
80
60
40 20
0
-20
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
C$m 80 WDO.to: Working Capital per qtr
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 0 -10
-20
-30
-40
-50
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
WDO.to: Working cap breakdown
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
31q4 41q3 51q2 61q1 61q4 71q3 81q2 91q1 91q4 02q3 12q2 22q1 22q4 32q3 42q2
$m
other working cap
cash
source: company filings

weeks ago, WDO is going to come in at around 170,000 oz for the year, give or take. As for
2025, it also reiterated that guidance:
That may disappoint some people who were looking for Kiena to churn out more ounce than
expected, but it’s right where this desk imagined.
The bottom line: Here I’m using the CAD chart of its main WDO listing to show the
improvement over the last two years. If the buyer timed it right they’d be on “almost a double”
now and while that’s a big move, I do think that WDO is now buyable for the first time since its
pre-emptive move on Kiena’s successful re-start during Q2. The strategy is paying off and the
investment in assets now showing up in a quickly growing cash position, exactly what mining
companies should do. With 4q24 and 2025 guidance reiterated, we know where we stand and
the company is doing a good job on its costs profile.
As for the potential of WDO being an M&A target: Yes, it’s possible. Companies that work on
their debt, get their assets straight and start making meaningful profits become targets for
acquisition and at the current levels, there is some room for a buyer to offer 20% or 30%
above market price and still get value from the purchase. WDO isn’t a cheap stock by any
means, but it remains something of an anomaly in Canada as owner of two and only two high-
grade underground mines in super-safe jurisdictions for mining activity. That’s the combo which
allows buyers to pay above the odds if they like the idea enough and there are some obvious
candidates for suitors as well, both Kiena and Eagle River would fit almost seamlessly into the
Alamos Gold (AGI) portfolio and both sides would be open to an all-paper deal. It’s a mug’s
game to trade based on second guessing M&A, I’m
not trying to do that and those buying/holding WDO
today can do so comfortably just on its own multiples.
If I held I’d also be looking for a cash dividend from
the stock sooner, rather than later. But if an offer
comes for WDO as the current gold cycle matures, I
wouldn’t be at all surprised. For me, WDO is almost-
but-not-quite buyable at these levels, but I’m only
vacillating because of what I want from my mining
portfolio (and owning EGO is enough mid-tier
exposure for me). If I were running an insto desk or
family office, I’d be all over this stock at these levels.
Good quarter.
Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to): Now for the underperformer from last week, as DPM
returned a reasonable-not-great Q3 that
saw the company selling, probably because DPM: Gold production and sales, per qtr
it came on the back of a stellar Q2 that had
raised expectations a little too high. The
main reason is the most straightforward:
Gold produced in concentrate of 60,100 oz and payable sales of 53,200 oz (that
discrepancy is normal) is the lowest quarter
since Covid, those sales being 7,623 oz
lower than 2q24. Average prices helped
shore up revenues, but COGS up by just
over $2m and “other” up by $13m,
connected to the sale of its smelter and its
share buybacks, saw EBIT drop to U$55.271m and net earnings to U$36.263m, representing an
EPS of 20c. That 12x multiple frames DPM as “neither cheap nor expensive”.
20
47196 86526 76586 03407 43266 02837 18375 90726 67765 13856 99436 56056 51676 46596 21255 32806 00235
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000
20000
10000
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
Oz Au Gold prod
Gold sold
source: company filings

DPM: Earnings overview
21
869.211
869.211
863.621 179.54 815.231 371.75 531 835.43 933.931
588.36
197.321 972.64 838.651
989.97
262.741 172.55
200
180
160
140
120
100 80
60
40
20
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
revenues
EBIT
net earnings from cont.op
source: company filings
The balance sheet continues showing strength, with liabilities connected to the smelter sale and
inventory also benefiting in a one-time move. However, liabilities are still small compared to
liquid assets and both treasury and working capital are rock solid.
DPM: Assets breakdown, per qtr
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
DPM guided itself as on track for its 2024 goals, all good. Overall, nothing wrong with the quarter but
the numbers didn’t sparkle and the modest selling
is understandable. Highly doubt any long-term
holders are worried, though.
The TinyCaps List
After 45 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 31.70% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 252.95 22.77 0.09 38.5%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 86.798 35.15 0.405 200.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 34.77 0.325 91.2%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 22.52 0.15 -16.7%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 3.55 0.04 -60.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 96.476 8.68 0.09 20.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 10.69 0.15 15.4%
South Star STS.v 0.750 52.64 31.06 0.59 -21.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 29.90 0.105 16.7%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 18.94 0.16 33.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 31.70%
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m DPM: Liabilities breakdown, per qtr
300
cash&eq inventory
other current property/plant/equip 250
other fixed
200
150
100
50
0
source: company filings
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
LT liab current liab
source: company filings
DPM: Working cap, per qtr
99.724 44.254 79.074 4.784 40.415 82.645 43.436 4.236 60.596 16.147 87.297 6.048
900
800
700
600
500 400 300
200
100
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
source: company filings

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
U.S. election week took its toll on the tinycaps and TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
our representative basket took a thorough beating, 90%
down almost 14% on the week with just one winner 80%
70%
(STS.v) and two UNCHers (BAY.v EDG.v) escaping 60%
the general pain. Among the seven losers (ARIC.v, 50%
40%
DMX.v, KLDC.v, LMS.v, PA.v, SURG.v, VAU.v) were 30%
some big percentage drops, first and foremost 20%
10%
Palamina Corp (PA.v down 36.2%) but also in 0%
Kirkland LDC (KLDC down 27.3%) and District
Metals (DMX.v down 13.3%).
Palamina Corp (PA.v): We got the NR (8) announcing first results from PA.v’s drill program
at the promising Sol De Oro Zone (‘SDO’) of its Usicayos project,
a set of numbers we’ve been looking forward to seeing. This
target was earmarked as one of the prime spots for drilling by
the PA people for several years and after a painfully long
permitting track, they only got to do so recently. PA has been on
our list of possible trades for a while and a lot depended on how
the first drill assays showed.
Long story short? Exploration is difficult. PA dumped as seen in
the price chart (right) when the world saw these numbers:
Sixty metres of 0.22 g/t gold a mine does not make. We can credit PA for not sugar-coating the
results or trying any “geologically promising/interesting” lines on us. It’s also continuing the drill
program at a different target in the zone, which is fair enough and that’s what explorecos are
supposed to do, but those results are obviously disappointing and the run that the stock has
been on recently came to a jarring halt. We also got a description of the drilling in the NR, your
author picking out a few words in bold-typed underline:
Drill hole US124-01 hit Manto 1 at a down hole depth of 23 metres and Manto 2 at a down hole
depth of 161 metres. Both shear zones are well developed, with intense foliation and typical
ductile deformation fabric hosted in metamorphosed carbonaceous shale. However, only
sporadic quartz veins were observed, particularly in Manto 1. Manto 2 was intercepted deeper
than modelled, suggesting intense folding or late brittle faulting causing displacement of the
22
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von ht01
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

shear zones. Drill holes US124-02 and US124-03 successfully intercepted Manto 1, but did not
reach Manto 2 due to drilling challenges that led to their abandonment before reaching the
target depth. Mantos 3 and 4 remain to be drill tested.
Message received and understood. With that, PA is no longer a candidate for inclusion on either
the Watch List or a personal purchase for the main Stocks to Follow list. We wish the company
good fortune in its next holes and if they hit something nice, the price is bound to regain the
lost ground. But no more holding of breath until good numbers show, the anticipatory
speculation has now all gone.
Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v): On Friday KLDC slipped to a new 2024 low price on its biggest
volume day since May, on this news (9):
Kirkland Lake Discoveries Reports 2024 AGM Results, Appointment of Stefan Sklepowicz as
CEO, and Launch of “KLDC Treasure Hunters” Video Series
That’s the sound of a failed exploreco attempting to turn
over a new leaf on the back of very little news or change in
the company, as even the “new CEO” has been in the role
since Danièle Spethmann left in May (back when it was still
a 10c stock on occasion). As this ten-day chart shows, the
“news” was greeted as an opportunity for someone to use
the liquidity and sell out and while 400k shares at 4c isn’t
that much in hard Loonie terms, it was enough. To quote
Eliot and The Hollow Men:
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): Another week, no news and
after seven and a half months, the gap formed when that
Charger zone drill assay wowed the mining world has finally
filled. We’re now two months from the last drill assay news
release from ARIC and on that date, we were told that six
holes were pending. About time they were put out of their
misery, no?
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Deferred
Way too much politics for one week already.
Market Watching
Aftermath Silver (AAG.v): Watch List material
Over the years, some of my most profitable trades have
come from being wrong about a company or its story and
while I’m still not sure enough about the current market to
dive in immediately, the combo of strong fundamental
news from the company and the recent pullback in price
to a reasonable level makes this silver exploreco
interesting and worthy of consideration going forward.
23

Aftermath Silver (AAG.v) is such a case. Until recently I have derided this company and its
flagship Berenguela project in South Peru due to the lack of information and vagueness
regarding the metallurgy of the copper/silver/manganese deposit. Not only is the silver-copper
combo often difficult to treat without spending way too much on machinery and reagents, but
the way in which AAG moved to include manganese as a payable, when in many cases in
Peruvian geology it’s a penalty metal, was a good reason to avoid the stock. However, that
changed last month when, finally, AAG published met results (10) and to my surprise, they
seem to be very promising with good recovery levels and reportedly low reagent use. The stock
promptly move up on this news and was pimped even further when Eric Sprott added to his
already substantial holding and his sycophants also piled in, so I felt rather left on the sidelines
when its sub-50c levels went rapidly over 60c. I thought my chance on the stock had gone, but
last week AAG got hit hard by the sector selling and surprised me for a second time in just one
month. Friday’s close of 46c is back at a reasonable entry point and has my value antennae
twitching again.
As such, as from next week AAG.v will be on our Stocks to Follow list with a view to watching
its market moves closely and potentially opening a trade on the stock. Expect a full review next
weekend in IKN809.
Argenta Silver (AGAG.v): That didn’t last long
It’s probably too much already, after the main “Argenta Silver (AGAG.v): A heavy promo as
from this week” in IKN806 and last week’s IKN807 follow-up “Argenta Silver (AGAG.v) and a
100% lift”, so this is going to be short, sweet and the last
word on the subject (unless something interesting happens,
of course). The way AGAG limped into the close last week
was a case of “Is that it?” on the promo pump around this
stock, closing at 34c with very little market interest in the
stock and story. Be clear, there’s any amount of stock held
at 15c and less (often a lot less) by people who literally
make their living by dumping paper on the unsuspecting. So
ends our limited coverage of AGAG.v and this time I mean it.
A lithium price warning
Patriot Battery Metals (PMET.v) (PMT.ax) its PEA for the (remembers it as Corvette, goes to
website, copypastes word) now re-named Shaakichiuwaanaan Project in Quebec Canada, it was
telling that it couldn’t use the spot price for lithium carbonate in its economic assumptions. On
the day of the release, August 21st (11), the benchmark price for PMET’s proposed product,
spodumene concentrate 6%, was U$770/tonne, hardly enough to cover the estimates total
operating cost of U$560/tonne let alone trifles such as financing costs, corporate and a capex
bill of over U$800m. But instead of noting reality, PMET decided to base its estimates on
substantially higher lithium prices, assuming at least U$1,375/tonne in its pitch. The current
price dip was temporary, PMET said. We all knew lithium would recover, they said. Really? I
wonder how many copper projects would be able to raise capital off a pitch to bankers of,
“Yeah well, we know it’s U$4.00/lb today but it’s going over
U$6.00/lb soon, guys…that makes us profitable…c’mon, lend
us U$500m…”
Anyway, three months later and lithium prices have not
recovered a single dollar from that purported low point.
Instead, they’ve gone even lower and this weekend the
contract spot price for spodumene concentrate 6% is
U$764/tonne (source, Fastmarkets (12)). The reason seem
to be connected to a new reality now emerging in the
lithium market, that of China gearing up to supply itself.
24

Here’s an example of the information suddenly doing the rounds in the serious end of the
mining chat-o-sphere (above right). The “WA” referring to Western Australia lithium producers,
the analyst in question being from Down Under. That post above elicited this comment from
Travis Ricciardo of the Money of Mine podcast (13), also with an Australian focus:
“Had a conversation today with a HK-based analyst who pointed out the same thing to me: -
There are huge new projects coming online in China - Those new projects are high-grade
spodumene (1.4-1.6%) and fully integrated - There is loads of spod in China in provinces that are
relaxing environmental standards to boost economic priorities = a lot more mines WA spod is the
marginal supply. It is what is.”
These two are examples, there are more out there about the downstream supply of lithium
expected from Chinese companies working in China and this makes perfect sense to this desk.
Copper and gold are one of the core foundations of my mining trades for a very simple reason:
China wants them. But unlike many other metals and/or commodities, China cannot produce
enough copper or gold for itself because it simply does not have the geological endowment
inside its country borders. Yes, China does need metals of other types from outside sources
and yes, it imports zinc, nickel and others, but there are only two metals that have a massive
imbalance of imported supply compared to home production and of those two, copper is the
only real industrial commodity (gold being the oddball “monetary metal”). The sudden rise in
lithium demand caught China napping at the start of the energy transition revolution, EV, solar
etc and to date, it’s had to rely largely on imports. That it’s now changing and national
production of lithium is ramping up should not be a surprise to anyone. History shows us that if
it has the metal, China produces it and it has a lot of lithium deposits and resources (the same
as anywhere else in the world). Its only weak point (if you want to frame it that way) in the
metals supply chain is and will remain copper and even there, it’s notable how its foreign policy
does everything possible to secure supply, with diplomatic efforts with copper rich countries and
Chinese companies that buy and operate large copper mines in South America, Africa and Asia
wherever possible.
Assumptions that “lithium prices have to go up again” need careful examination, particularly
when they come from the very places that depend on higher prices for their financial survival.
Bulls may have discarded a return to the late 2022 spike to over U$6,000/tonne but retain the
argument of lithium prices doubling from here “and that’s enough for PMET” and other hardrock
Li projects. Those rather blithe projections are based almost entirely on demand projections
that don’t account for massive new supply from internal Chinese sources and companies such
as PMET should take a good, hard look at the arrogance of their market soothsaying. There’s a
long list of quotes misattributed to Mark Twain but no matter who said it first, this is very true:
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just
ain't so.”
Conclusion
IKN808 is done, we end with bullet points:
 I suddenly find myself in harvest mode with many of the trades. There will be no
touching the core stuff (RIO.v, MAI.v, ARG.to etc) but raising cash and looking for
opportunities down the line suddenly makes a lot of sense.
 Two sales coming this week, but at some point soon Aldebaran (ALDE.v) will also go
out the door. It gave us some great news last week, but the deal also means 2025 and
2026 are likely to become quiet years for the stock. The post MRE period is, therefore
the right time to take profits and I’m now aiming for a January window.
 The state of the copper market also leaves something to be desired, all of a sudden.
You don’t have to be a bull about the near-term and the long-term, so while the vision
of where copper can go once the structural supply deficit kicks remains unchanged, we
may have to go through a soft price period before we get there.
 Here’s wishing the newly elected administration in The USA the best of fortune.
25

I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/11/schedule-for-week-of-november-10-2024.html
(2) https://aldebaranresources.com/aldebaran-signs-option-to-joint-venture-agreement-9706/
(3) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk6PzDx3tmA
(4) https://newcoregold.com/news/newcore-gold-announces-appointment-of-alan-pangbourne-as-strategic-advisor/
(5) https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/LIBERO-COPPER-GOLD-CORPOR-49478185/news/Libero-Copper-
Gold-Corporation-Announces-Details-of-Ongoing-14-000-Metre-Exploration-Program-at-th-48274452/
(6) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-pulls-back-on-disappointment-over-chinas-fiscal-support/
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/base-metals-largely-fall-as-china-stimulus-disappoints/
(8) https://www.palamina.com/news/2024/11/4/palamina-reports-on-drilling-at-sol-de-oro-east-amp-notes-multiple-
visible-gold-intercepts-at-sdo-south
(9) https://www.kirklandlakediscoveries.com/post/kirkland-lake-discoveries-reports-2024-agm-results-appointment-of-
stefan-sklepowicz-as-ceo-and-lau
(10) https://aftermathsilver.com/news-releases/aftermath-silvers-berenguela-metallurgical-testwork-yields-high-silver-
recoveries/
(11) https://patriotbatterymetals.com/6942-2/
(12) https://www.fastmarkets.com/metals-and-mining/battery-raw-materials/lithium/lithium-prices/
(13) https://x.com/TRAVmoneyofmine/status/1854761374834213226
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
26

Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
29