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The IKN Weekly
Week 807, November 3rd 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, The trading week starts Wednesday.
Fundamental Analysis: Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) 3q24 earnings: To die on a hill.
Stocks to Follow: Fitzroy Minerals (FTZ.v), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), American Eagle
(AE.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to), Newcore Gold
(NCAU.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera Alamos
(MAI.v)
The Copper Basket: Overview, Hercules Metals (BIG.v), Element29 (ECU.v), Camino Minerals
(COR.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Agnico Eagle (AEM), Newmont (NEM), Wesdome (WDO.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Latin Metals (LMS.v), Awalé Resources (ARIC.v).
Regional Politics: Who is the fairest of them all?, Peru: Antauro Party banned, Bolivia and
more Evo crazy, Argentina: Mendoza opens up.
Market Watching: Dropping Fitzroy Minerals (FTZ.v), Argenta Silver (AGAG.v) and a 100%
lift, Testing myself on 35 exploration stage copper companies (Part Seven), Amerigo Resources
3q24 financial results.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 Today’s main fundies section focuses on Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), which delivered
a 3q24 earnings report that disappointed the market last week and saw the stock sell
off to a level I didn’t think we’d see again with gold over U$2,700/oz. We take the
space and time to explain why this is a gilt-edged buying opportunity in a stock that,
gold price willing, is going to leave these valuations for dust in the next 12 months.
 Plenty to chew over in the stocks to Follow notes section this week, including an initial
reaction to the surprise announcement from Minera Alamos (MAI.v) last week. There’ll
be plenty more on that deal soon enough, but last week’s most interesting NR (for me
at least) was one that got very little attention from the wider market. That was from
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) and its news, combined with the new lower share prices,
has me looking to add shares in the days to come.
 Fitzroy Minerals (FTZ.v) has turned into a disappointment. Reasons why it’s getting
dropped from the Watch List (like a ton of bricks) in this week’s Market Watching. Also
down there, a look at the in-line financials returned by Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) last
week.
 After the dismal lead offered to the precious metals mining world by market cap leader
Newmont (NEM) a couple of weeks ago, we thanks Agnico (AEM) for providing true
leadership via its excellent 3q24 financial results. That’s the main chunk of today’s
Producer Basket.
 All that and a lot more in an edition that touches several bases, and all with the bare
minimum on a certain election being held in the days ahead.
1

The trading week starts Wednesday
Vladimir: “Well? What do we do?”
Estragon: “Don’t let’s do anything. It’s safer”
Waiting for Godot, Beckett
You may have heard there’s an election next week. Regarding that, we’re unlikely to get a
winner called early and I’ve read of educated guesses of between Thursday and Saturday from
professional US political watchers, but we’re likely (not certain) to have a good idea who is
leading by Wednesday due to vote patterns etc. Enough for markets to react, at least.
However, it’s worth considering the high likelihood that the final result of the US election be
contested by which ever side loses.
Coincidentally, Tuesday and Wednesday are FOMC days, with the next installment of The Jay
Powell Show scheduled for 2pm Wednesday (communiqué) and 2:30pm (presser). On that, the
Fed has telegraphed its decision clearly and unless there’s a shock, we’re getting a 25bps cut.
That’s because Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said so on CNBC (1). We quote:
"I mean, it seems pretty straightforward to cut another 25bps. If you look at all the data that came
in since the last meeting, it really hasn't changed the baseline narrative which is 'look, inflation
has come down quite a bit from its peak."
As she’s widely viewed as Jay Powell’s body double when it comes to policy, what we have is a
Fed that’s decided to take as much sting out of its FOMC decision as possible before the event
(again, there’s an election on, I believe). That leaves the wording of the announcement to get
pored over by Fedwatchers for any subtle changes, then the presser (though these days, Powell
has got good about saying very little using a lot of words; Bernanke was more fun).
Put those together and traders among this audience may want to take Monday and Tuesday off
and go and do something less boring because market moves before Wednesday afternoon are
likely easily ignored. That’s all you’re getting from me on US politics and/or macro this weekend
and if Beckett isn’t your scene, Dr Seuss said it equally well in Oh, The Places You’ll Go!:
+
Waiting for a train to go
Or a bus to come, or a plane to go
Or the mail to come, or the rain to go
Or the phone to ring, or the snow to snow
Or waiting around for a Yes or No
Or waiting for their hair to grow.
Everyone is just waiting.
Waiting for the fish to bite
Or waiting for wind to fly a kite
Or waiting around for Friday night
Or waiting, perhaps, for their Uncle Jake
Or a pot to boil, or a Better Break
Or a string of pearls, or a pair of pants
Or a wig with curls, or Another Chance.
Everyone is just waiting.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) 3q24 earnings: To die on a hill
Right on schedule and post-close Thursday, our largest market cap gold trade Eldorado Gold
(EGO) (ELD.to) reported its 3q24 financials (2), with the Conference Call happening the
morning after (recording available here (3)). Here’s how the market reacted:
2

The share price dumped by 5.93% on increased volume. Ugh, that’s not what shareholders
want to see, of course. As such, today we do two things:
 Check out the reasons the market turned its collective nose up at the EGO Q3
 Explain why the market is wrong
In other words, either I’m way too stubborn for my own financial good (and yours for that
matter, bear that in mind the next time your subscription payment shows up) or this is a gilt-
edged opportunity to buy a heavily discounted, profitable producer of over half a million ounces
of gold per year during a historic gold bull run period. This is a hill I’m willing to die on, as EGO
now offers tremendous value to the discerning metals and mining investor. Now for why.
First up, the 3q24 production numbers were indeed a slight miss on expectations:
EGO: gold production breakdown, per qtr
160000
140000
17882 20000
1 1 0 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 9 7 9 5 2 6 8 1 2 1 2 3 6 8 4 6 4 6 2 1 1 8 1 8 4 4 2 8 5 2 6 2 6 3 1 7 9 4 1 1 8 8 5 7 0 8 1 8 2 1 2 3 3 5 9 4 7 1 1 2 9 1 7 2 9 1 4 1 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
60000 37884 38745 42821 42299 47391 43106
40000
55000
20000 37160 34180 37219 46291 37523 38990 41084
0
3
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
Oz Au
Kisladag Lamaque
Efemcukuru Olympias
source: company filings
Without the byproduct metals production from Olympias, EGO produced 125,195 oz gold in
3q24, while our target was 130,000 oz. So, a small miss and here's a brief mine-by-mine
breakdown:
 Kisladag: We estimated 45,000 oz, 3q24 production was 41,084 oz and a miss, though
details suggest it’s not a big issue.. EGO notes on the mine's quarter included "Availability
of the crushing circuit has been impacted due to maintenance issues, leading to slightly
lower tonnes stacked compared to plan. We are working on a solution and expect to install
it in Q1 2025.” The implication here is a continued slight impediment to full production
rhythm in Q4.
 Lamaque: We estimated 47,000 oz, 3q24 production was 43,106 oz and that’s a miss. EGO
notes on the mine's quarter that the miss “…was primarily due to lower grades processed,
partially offset by increased throughput. Average grade decreased to 6.03 grams per tonne
in Q3 2024 from 7.04 grams per tonne in the comparative quarter.” This is likely mine
sequencing and that’s what happens to mines on occasion.
 Efemcukuru: We estimated 20,000 oz, 3q24 production was 19,794 oz (so right on the
button here). EGO notes on the mine's quarter included, “Efemcukuru produced 19,794
ounces of gold in Q3 2024, a 6% decrease from 21,142 ounces in Q3 2023. The slight
decrease was primarily driven by lower throughput and lower grade.” This had previously
been flagged by the company and expected.
 Olympias: We estimated 18,000 oz as Olympias got back to speed from the strike in Q2,
3q24 production was a strong 21,211 oz and helped buffer the misses at its two biggest
mines. EGO notes on the mine's quarter included that the beat was “…primarily driven by
higher grade ore, which reflected stope sequencing in the quarter.” Mine sequencing gives
and takes away.
Overall, a modest miss on overall production and while not a disaster, it wasn’t a strong number
and as such, the selling Friday morning was understandable. However, take a step back,
consider the way EGO guided for Q4 and then factor in the new price of gold and you’ll see why
I’m now so bullish on this stock. Above is the outline of guidance for 4q24, based on EGO’s

tightened guidance for the year which was tightened down to 505,000 to 530,000 ounces, from
505,000 to 555,000 ounces. In other words, the low end stays in and the top end is brought
down, but in fact it hasn’t changed out house forecast because even before last week, we were
aiming at 520,000 oz. That’s now 510k oz and made up as seen above.
During the conference call, management made it clear that Kisladag and Lamauqe would drive
better production numbers in Q4 (even with the glitches at Kisladag) and the new guidance
implies a far better Q4 in the works. Management made it clear that were in for a good Q4 and
that matters, particularly when our estimates for Q4 average gold equivalent revenue per ounce
is set to come in nearly U$200/oz higher than Q3.
EGO: Revenues/Oz gold equivalent production, per qtr
(NB: please note cut down Y-axis)
4
5102 0102 9002 1091 5781 3391 9181 6861 9571 6591 0691 4091 4212 1212
3822
1942
0862
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600 1400
1200
1000
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$/oz AuEq
source: EGO data, IKN calcs and ests
In other words, EGO is on track to sell 20,000 oz more gold in Q4 compared to Q3, then sell
them at a much higher price. Which brings us to our next subject:
EGO: Earnings overview
53.922
63.23
68.922
70.93
62.542
68.24
40.403 17.56 79.752 01.06 41.792 54.09 67.133 001
014
261
500
450
400
350
300
250
200 150
100
50
0
32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$m
revenues
gross margin
mine op earnings
op. earnings
source: company filings
First let’s cover the Q3 results and last week, Ego reported revenues of U$331.758m, a decent
result and U$6.7m above our house estimate of U$325m (mainly due to a slightly higher
received price than the house guess). Costs of U$141.225m were higher than our U$135m
estimate but not by that much, with the company reporting higher royalties paid in Turkey and
Greece due to the higher gold price (which we'd taken into account) and higher input labour
costs (which we didn't). The resulting gross margin of U$190.533m was right on our
guesstimate of $190m, though more by luck than judgment.
After that, higher charges for exploration (U$8.31m), C&M (U$3.2m) and the catch-all "other"
brought operating earnings down to U$99.961m, some $10m short of our model forecast. Once
the hedge deduction and one-time benefit from the sale of Tocantinzinho were taken into
account, EGFO reported EBNIT of U$129,258m and post tax net earnings of U$101.035m, an
EPS of 49c. Not a bad quarter, enough on a down day for gold and the mining sector to see
people using it as a liquidity event.
So overall a slightly light quarter but still eminently profitable for the company operationally.
However, the real reason to own EGO is in the future, rather than backward-looking Q3 results,
and there are two serious catalysts coming up

 Q4: Please check the chart above again, as the combo of better production and higher gold
prices promises to work magic on EGO revenues. We estimate U$410m on the top line and
after adjusting the model for higher costs (as per Q3), gross maergin of U$260m and mine
operating earnings of U$190m. That would be U$&3.5m higher than Q3, 93c on a per-share
basis and if that doesn't get a U$16.34 share price moving, I don't know what will. Expecting a
well-run, profitable and growing Tier 2 mining company to see its operating earning per share
to drop to around 4X in the next quarter is one doozy of a near-term catalyst and the first
reason I’m banging on the table about this mis-priced stock today. The second reason is the
good news from its major growth story:
 Skouries: A lot of the company literature last week, including the long cover NR, the MD&A
and the Conference Call and corporate presentation, was dedicated to the ongoing build-out at
Skouries. Capital spend slowed a little in Q3 but the project is still on track and EGO confirmed
its 3q25 start date, as well as the current budget. Spending at Skouries reached U$82.7m in Q3
and now totals U$227.1m for 2024, EGO expects capital spend to accelerate this quarter and
into 2025 and this table provided by the company is as good a guide as any:
Ms at 3q24 there was still over half a billion dollars needed at the project before completion,
still scheduled to happen one year from now. So make no mistake, Skouries is big and set to be
a game-changer at EGO. Our updated annual gold production table shows how it will change its
production mix. During the Conference Call, EGO management confirmed its expectations of
improving overall corporate gold production by 45% once Skouries was at full speed, that’s
705,000 oz gold per annum compared to 2023 (give or take three tenths of a percent).
EGO: Annual gold production and median four year guidance
Oz Au
Skouries
750000
700000 Olympias
650000 Efemcukuru
600000 Lamaque 150000 200000
550000 Kisladag 55000
500000
450000 55639 56333 68157 73540 85000 85000 80000
3 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 92707 87685 86088 80692 75000 80000 65000
300000
250000 153201 174097 176069 182796 175000 190000 190000
200000
150000
1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 174364 135800 154850 172597 180000 157750 170000
0
2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e
source: company filings
EGO went over the details of construction during the call and also published this drone video of
the site on its YouTube channel last week (4). It’s
well worth two and a bit minutes of your time but
this still from the video (shot September 23rd)
gives a flavour of the view and the progress on
site to date.
The other side of the Skouries coin is financial,
one we can check on via our balance sheet
charts. We expect assets and liabilities to continue
to expand as EGO moves into the final year of the
5

Skouries build-out and deploys around $120m of remaining capital requirement in Q4:
But even with all that spend, our model predicts treasury and working capital will increase
thanks to the expected bonanza profits from operations. Indeed, the EGO CFO on the Friday
ConfCall made the same point, saying that EGO would continue to collect cash. This is a very
strong showing during a high spend period and shows that the company is not going to have
any problem in paying its Skouries bills. We may even see it pull the trigger on the next of its
pipeline projects before Skouries comes online. Here the treasury and working cap chart puts
that strength into visual form:
EGO: Treasury and working cap
6
86.434 43.394 69.963 90.064
63.603
91.114
47.413
25.124
82.262
51.514 85.654 10.495 26.674 78.736 74.045 91.656 57.415 93.946 50.595 29.327 95.676
37.038
017 078
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400 300
200
100
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
EGO: Assets breakdown, per qtr
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
U$m
cash&eq
working cap
source: company filings
A cannot see an issue with the $500m or so required to finish the mine.
The bottom line: The selling on Friday was likely a reaction to an okay-not-great set of 3q24
financials, combined with the bad luck of reporting on a down day for the sector, but what it
does not take into account is the near-term and medium-term future of EGO. For a model of
what EGO is about to do, look at how Wesdome (WDO.to) moved as it re-rated into the Kiena
ramp-up. Or for a target price, the only real difference between EGO and Lundin Gold (LUG.to),
aside from the extra risk that LUG has as a single-mine company, is that LUG is producing near
to 700k oz gold today and EGO will have to wait
18 months. But on an enterprise value basis
(LUG has no debt, EGO has a billion to carry for
the moment), that time lag is being priced at
around U$1.4Bn on a comparative basis,
implying EGO has 40% to make up on LUG this
weekend. Or if you prefer, there’s no real reason
why a profitable and growing gold miner with a
clear path to 45% production upside in the next
two years should be priced at under book value
this weekend (right), even if you baulk at the
perceived country risk of operating in Turkey
(which may be an odd country, but has shown
itself to be a friendly jurisdiction for mining capital over the years). Way more than Ecuador,
that’s for sure.
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$m EGO: Liabilities breakdown, per qtr
2200
cash&eq inventory
other current property/plant/equip 2000
other fixed 1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
source: company filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$m
current liab LT debt Other LT liab
source: company filings
EGO: Price/Book ratio 2021 to date
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 won
source: NYSE, EGO data, IKN calcs

While last week’s selling can be understood from
a reactionary, near-term trader’s point of view,
fundamentally speaking it made a cheap mining
stock even cheaper and by the time 2025 gets
into gear, the extra money spent or ounces not
produced in the quarter just gone will look like a
rounding error compared to what EGO has and
will soon have. This is the sound of your author,
banging on the table.
Stocks to Follow
A negative week for mining stocks, but we still managed to squeeze five winners (MARI.to,
LBC.v, OCI.v, ALDE.v, AE.v) from the 19 stocks open this time last week and I’m sure you’ve
noticed already that four of those five are exploreco stage copper juniors. Three were big
percentage moves, namely Orecap (OCI.v up 18.2%), Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 17.0%) and Libero
(LBC.v up 16.9%), that managed to combine to buffer the losses from other places. Two other
stocks were unchanged (PAU.cse, MENE.v), that leaves 12 losers and while most of those were
too heavy, we need to highlight the big drops suffered by Red Pine (RPX.v down 16.7%),
Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v down 16.7% in the Watch List), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v down 15.3%)
and the most painful of the big drops, SilverCrest (SILV down 10.0%)
The sale of AE.v last week means we’re down to 18 open positions on our Stocks to Follow, two
less than our standard maximum. Twelve stocks are in the green, six are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.365 73.8% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.69 -26.3% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
SilverCrest Met SILV HOLD U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.75 41.3% under offer, holding
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$16.34 -1.3% key 3q24 filing this week
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.75 13.6% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.43 45.2% Quality Cu developer
Red Pine Expl RPX.v BUY C$0.105 8-Sep-24 C$0.125 19.0% New sm position, will build
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.355 73.2% Cheap Au in West Africa
Libero Copper LBC.v SPEC BUY C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.45 32.4% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.115 -39.5% Cu jr, may add post financing
Orecap Inv OCI.v ADDING C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.065 8.3% still trying to add (illiquid)
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$1.65 129.2% finally moving up, hold to 1q25
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.25 -16.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Fitzroy Min FTZ.v DROPPING C$0.17 4-Aug-24 C$0.26 52.9% dropping from watchlist
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.025 25.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.19 100.0% Idaho gold drill play
7

LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.105 -78.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
American Eagle AE.v Oct'24 C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.69 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Fitzroy Minerals (FTZ.v): DROPPING FROM WATCH LIST. A brief heads-up on the
decision to drop FTZ from the Watch List as from next weekend. The note on the subject is
longer than is comfortable for these stock notes, so I’ve put it down in Market Watching. Please
see below for more.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): MAY ADD. The sell-off hit this one particularly hard, down
16.7% on the week and that’s probably to do with a bit of unlucky timing as well. On Thursday,
with gold taking a leg down and mining speculators having decided to run for cover, RPX
released this NR (5) entitled “Red Pine Discovers Significant Gold Mineralization in Faulted
Extension of the Jubilee Shear on the Wawa Gold Project”.
I’ll often write a quick thought on a NR from an exploreco alongside the phrase “please read
the whole NR”, this time I mean it. Last week’s NR is exactly why I’m comfortable about
investing in RPX after years of watching from the sidelines, as CEO Marchaud and his team put
their brains trust and deep knowledge of the local geology to work in order to unlock Wawa and
add tonnage and create a mineable resource of the scale that suitors (e.g. AGI, the most
obvious) are looking for). The phrase “geological detective work” is sometimes over-used, here
it’s the right one as RPX has for the first time discovered the
continuation of the Jubilee Shear South of the local controlling
fault. The map in the NR is bigger than the reproduction right
and it’s worth considering in detail, but on my copy the green
ringed area is key, it also shows how the shear zone North of
the fault has been earmarked as the conceptual open pit. Grades
and widths on the first hits of (let’s call it) Jubilee South aren’t
eye-popping and perhaps that’s why the stock sold down, not
hard to imagine casual observers sniffing at the numbers after a
quick scan and moving on, but this desk begs to differ on the
importance of last week’s NR. It’s fair to assume that Jubilee
South can offer the same type of average grades as the better
understood section of the shear to the North as exploration
progresses and as Jubilee forms the centre of the current
economic resource, there’s plenty of ounces potentially to add
now in a relatively straightforward manner. Last week’s NR is an
intriguing and promising result that comes relatively early in CEO
Michaud’s tenure, pointing to why he’s the right guy for this job.
8

As for trading, the whacking RPX took was way overcooked and I may add if the market offers
me these prices next week. The move RPX made at
the start of October had all the look of being
definitive, one that would break it back to the old-
time trading range of 18c to 20c but as things have
turned out, we can now take a second bite at the
cherry at the discounted prices. You may recall that
I got some at lower prices but not a full quota and if
this were priced in dollar not pennies, more eyeballs
would be on it and thinking “mispriced” right now.
Don’t be surprised to read that I’ve added come this
time next weekend.
American Eagle (AE.v): POSITION CLOSED. Another mediocre bit of microtiming, as my
69c sale price Tuesday could have been several pennies higher if I’d waited until Wednesday. In
the end it’s good enough, as less than two weeks ago I would have happily sold the lot if you’d
offered me 61c or 62c. Plenty of liquidity in the stock as well, obviously buyers happy to buy
any price under 70c last week so good for them and I hope it goes well. A 60.5c win booked,
with cash to play in another place.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): ADDED. OCI traded at 5.5c and 6c early week, 6c and 6.5c late week
and the +18.2% week-over-week win probably flatters the stock. I think could have got some
at 5.5c with more patience and better fishing but didn’t, in the end paying 6c and even then,
didn’t get very many. Therefore, I’m looking to top up in the days to come with a few more, but
6c is the price and not a tenth higher. As for the ongoing implied valuation of OCI holdings,
here’s our regular tracking table:
OCI.v: PRO FORMA Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.75 8.76 3.5
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.45 0.05 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.415 3.07 1.2
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.215 0.90 0.4
QCCU.v 39.10 0.135 5.28 2.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.04 0.99 0.4
subtotal 19.04 7.7
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 20.54 8.3c
At 247.714 S/O
That’s still an approximate 20% arbitrage at 6.5c and if OCI ever started picking up trade
momentum, I reckon it would be able to hold this price and get to 7c easily. As things stand, it
remains a backwater issue and therefore offers plenty of value for anyone who quietly and
slowly builds a position. Me, for example.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): The quiet achiever isn’t so quiet all of a sudden.
9

This is what I’d always hoped it would do and the good vibes as ALDE moves towards its
resource update and that move to close at $1.65 on Friday also saw the stock trade above
C$1.70 for at least half the day. I don’t mind admitting that it’s tempting to change my mind on
the back of this move and cash in now, instead of waiting for the resource update and the
presumed new round of buying in January 2025, but I’m going to stick with the plan and sit
firmly on my hands for a couple of months.
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to): STOCK UNDER OFFER, HOLDING. As well as US election and
FOMC fun and games, we have a big day for SILV on Wednesday when Coeur (CDE), the near-
certain buyer of the company in an all-paper deal, reports its 3q24 financials post-close. The
ConfCall comes the next day, Thursday 7th at 11am ET.
This is one of the major reasons we’ve been willing to
hold through on SILV, chances are CDE is going to
please the market with its own results and push the
complex higher. Holding through earnings is a risky
game at the best of times, at in a choppy waters we’re
bound to get in The USA next week and those risks are
multiplied. But hey, this is junior mining and we wouldn’t
be here in the first place if we weren’t willing to stick out
necks out from time to time. Game on.
In trading, SILV got slapped around a bit on Friday,
which might be CDE pre-earnings nerves. I note the
extra selling it took, shrug shoulders and hold through. Roll on Wednesday.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): The drill assays from NCAU’s Boin target at Enchi last Wednesday
(6) are best considered continuation returns and what we expect from the upper oxide deposit,
rather than anything new or mindblowing. The company
made a point of highlighting the higher grades it got
from lower levels in the sulphide zone, but that rock isn’t
going to make the first PFS. Instead, the lower drill
assays show a proof of concept for any suitors that can
consider a second phase of mining once the oxide zones
are depleted. In trading the stock went sideways, which
is fair enough. Though I’d like it to go higher
immediately and never stop (of course), seeing it
consolidate at this 35c-or-so level for a while before
moving up wouldn’t be the worst result in the world.
The stock’s up over 150% in 2024 YTD, difficult to
complain about its performance this year.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): Here’s what IPT has done in the last ten days compared to the other
spec silver trade we recently ran and spot silver price (using SLV as proxy). When silver
dropped last week, the dog silver stocks did what you’d expect them to do and dropped harder.
That makes the BCM sale look good (don’t be fooled, I’m a random walk for near-term trade
calls and nailing a great price is dumb luck) but by the same token, continuing to hold IPT in
the downturn is dumb…right?
Well, not really. I’m just not good enough to micro-time
sales, so the strategy has to be risk management. With
BCM gone, SilverCrest now under offer and silver-the-
metal approaching what I consider the near-term ceiling
price of U$35/oz, it makes sense to lessen exposure
without cutting it completely (as I’d be happy to be wrong
about silver stalling at 35). This was the third-string silver
trade and the most speculative, easy to handle its volatility
now.
10

Libero Copper (LBC.v): This trade has turned out to be nicely timed. The 30c and 35c on
offer just after the announcement of drilling at Mocoa has disappeared into the rear-view mirror
and there’s a heavy pumpo going on in the wonderful world of social media. Plenty of trade
volume and no issues about getting stuck holding a stock that suddenly dries up, so it’s a case
of holding through to the drill assay and then, at some point, taking profits. We’re using the
Greater Fool theory on this trade and will wait for a possible feeding frenzy on assay results.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): On time and in good style, RIO.v closed its financing last week (7) and is
now cashed up to the gills. In fact, if we add the U$170m in proceeds to the prior treasury
position of an IKN calculated U$13m, then subtract what Fenix will reasonably cost to get to
production, around U$135m, one starts to wonder whether RIO.v could find a better use for the
extra treasury than just sticking it in a time deposit and earning a bit of interest. Another
property, perhaps? Anyway, that’s just me spit-balling. In other news I had a quick
conversation with RIO.v exec Chair Alex Black last week. He told me that early works had
started as per schedule but due to the amount of noise there’s going to be in the world this
coming few days (election and what have you), the company isn’t going to run a trumpety-type
NR. Instead, we’ll probably get a matter-of-fact NR in a couple of weeks, mentioning that the
build-out has started and things are in order.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Quite a surprise from Top Pick MAI.v last week. After a halt and an
intake of breath, this news from the company (8) took the market by near-complete surprise
(which is good, they managed to keep it quiet):
Toronto, Canada (October 28, 2024) – Minera Alamos Inc. (TSXV: MAI; OTCQX:MAIFF) (“Minera Alamos”)
and Sabre Gold Mines Corp. (TSX: SGLD; OTCQB: SGLDF) (“Sabre Gold”) are pleased to announce that
they have entered into a definitive agreement, signed on October 27th, 2024, (the “Agreement”) whereby
Minera Alamos will acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Sabre Gold (“Sabre Gold Shares”)
pursuant to a plan of arrangement (the “Transaction”), further enhancing Minera Alamos’ position as a growth
oriented gold producer.
It’s one of those deals that, when you’re first presented with it, makes sense immediately.
Minera Alamos gets another arrow for its quiver that, importantly, isn’t stymied by permitting
woes in Mexico, meanwhile Sabre Gold shareholders can roll up what’s been a disappointing
journey for them so far into a larger and more dynamic company that has the financial
wherewithal and technical know-how to put its flagship project into operation (after several
false starts. That project is Copperstone in Arizona USA, a past producing mine with all major
permits already in place that would be able to go back into production relatively quickly. As for
the terms of the deal and its structure, they seem good as well:
Pursuant to the Transaction, all shares in Sabre Gold will be acquired and exchanged for 0.693
Minera Alamos common shares (“Minera Alamos Shares”) resulting in the issuance of
approximately 76.5 M Minera Alamos Shares after taking into account the Settlement
Agreements (defined below). Prior to the closing of the Transaction, certain related party
creditors of Sabre Gold (the “Creditors”) have agreed to enter into a series of debt settlement
agreements (the “Settlement Agreements”) whereby the Creditors will receive Sabre Gold
Shares at a discount (15%) to the face value of the debt. These debt settlement arrangements
will clear all of Sabre Gold’s existing long-term debt obligations as well as some of its short-term
debt prior to the acquisition. As a result of the exchange of the Sabre Gold shares received under
the Settlement Agreements pursuant to the Transaction, the Debt Settlement would result in the
issuance of approximately 21.1 M Minera Alamos Shares to the Creditors in addition to the
55.4M issued to the Sabre equity holders.
Upon completion of the arms length Transaction and taking into account the Settlement
Agreements, existing Minera Alamos and Sabre Gold shareholders will own approximately 86%
and 14% of Minera Alamos, respectively. There are no Finders Fees payable pursuant to the
transaction,
The all-scrip deal means no issues with treasury and importantly, MAI has Sabre Gold creditors
largely on its side already with their agreement to swap debt for shares. Once completed, we
expect the pro-forma share count to be around 547m shares out all told and very derivative
papers (basically the 18m or so MAI options that are already out there). That’s not an onerous
weight and overall, a manageable size for MAI and its treasury.
11

With the deal announced on Monday I’ve had nearly a week to consider it and what it might for
MAI. Excel models are open and I’ve exchanged with company president Ramshaw and picked
his brains on this-and-that. However, I’ve decided to hold off from publishing on the deal and
its consequences because for one thing, there’s
no rush. The deal is set to close in January or
early February, that seems a long time from
now (e.g. after the next US Presidential
inauguration). And if we consider the way MAI
has traded recently there’s only a small and
temporary blip on the right-hand side of that
comparative price chart to indicate some sort of
deal was done. Ultimately, this is far from a
merger of equals with the buyer holding 86% of
New MAI equity and Sabre just 14% and though
MAI isn’t the biggest company in the world, it
can swallow what has become a minnow
exploreco fairly easily. Also, Mexico is still by far
the most important price driver for our Top Pick. Anyone buying MAI today will have to be
comfortable about the new Sheinbaum government delivering on a new permitting regime, just
like before. That MAI has managed a value asset pick up at the right time is commendable, but
it’s not going to drive the price in the near term.
But most importantly, I want to test my own emotional response to this deal first. My gut
reaction after learning of the deal was “I Like This” and that’s fair enough, but that might be
because I’m as frustrated about the inertia on MAI’s Mexican projects as any of you out there.
As the week wore on, the old saying “if the story changes walk away” has floated through my
brain on several occasions while I stress that I’m not about to do a 180° on MAI and sell (no
way that happens), I’d like to think about it some more before coming to a considered
conclusion. And as the price chart above shows, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to rush to
a conclusion anyway. So today’s brief note on an interesting deal by one of our two Top Pick
stocks may disappoint regular readers, but don’t worry we’ll crunch the numbers on this soon
enough.
The Copper Basket
After forty-four weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 25.95% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 2170.89 11.62 62.3%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 514.63 3.18 -23.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 412.48 4.43 29.2%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 280.20 1.65 85.4%
5 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.519 231.72 7.85 -33.5%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 133.265 186.57 1.40 -20.0%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 184.25 0.90 42.9%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 127.05 0.55 -60.1%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 87.56 0.75 188.5%
10 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 78.18 0.33 -12.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 119.31 59.66 0.50 177.8%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 31.65 0.495 -14.7%
13 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 76.381 25.21 0.33 -45.9%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 23.45 0.135 12.5%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 8.27 0.04 -42.9%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 25.95%
12

For the second week running, what should by all rights be a losing week for the Copper Basket
average turned into a win as another week of
weak metals trading was countered and propped
by a handful of bigger exploreco winners. Eight of
our fifteen basket stocks were losers (NGEX.to,
SLS.to, LA.v, ASCU.to, FDY.to, OCO.v, CCCM.v,
COR.v) including the biggest percentage loser in
minnow stock Camino (COR.v down 20.0%). One
stock was unchanged on the week (BIG.v) and
that leaves six winners (MARI.to, ALDE.v, KDK.v,
AE.v, QCCU.v, ECU.v) but thanks to the combined
efforts of big winners Element 29 (ECU.v up
28.2%), Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 17.0%) and
Kodiak (KDK.v up 10.0%) the worm was turned, a negative feeling week was turned into a
4.35% gain and by four hundredths, we have the new high close for The Copper Basket in
2024. Quite the comeback after dipping into the
red in mid-September.
As for the week in copper, it too seems to be
girding its loins for potential geopolitical turmoil
by remaining quiet and largely unmoved by last
week’s market and the very tight trading range
we reported last weekend has carried straight
through to now. Another week would have seen
copper reacted favourably to data out of its
main market, as China first returned the best
PMI number for several months. At 50.1 for
October, it was the first expansive reading since
April. That was followed by news that its
housing market expanded for the first time in seven months. However, the shadow cast by the
coming week in The USA extended as far as here and with traders unwilling to make a stand,
copper traded sideways.
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
13
von ced 2naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco
source: China PMI
We move to inventory stuff and first the long-term tracking charts as they update for the end of
another month. The story here is a change in location of stocks, as both charts show how
Comex has enjoyed the inflows that LME and (to a lesser extent) SHFE) normally get. We
covered this new trend last weekend in IKN806.
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME source: Cochilco
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72
source: IKN calcs

Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
14
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
However and on the grand scale of things, there’s still plenty of copper available for purchase
and delivery on the world market, it’s tough to look at those charts above and then claim
there’s a shortage of copper or a tight market. That’s the long-term view, now for our weekly
look at the moves in world copper inventories, with data directly LME, Comex and SHFE this
week because Chile had a national holiday on Friday and the normal Cochilco source didn’t have
updated numbers.
 The aggregate of the three official futures systems for commodities, metals and
specifically copper saw another net drop last week. The global total this weekend is
505,352 metric tonnes (mt), down 10,530mt on the week.
 Another modest decline in Shanghai SHFE inventories last week, nobody’s idea of a
market moving news event but it is in the right direction and normal for the time of
year, that’s not to be underestimated in what’s far from a normal year (in many ways).
Stocks dropped last week by 9,854mt to close Friday at 153,221mt.
 At the LME, the net outflow was 3,925mt and the pattern of tonnages leaving its
Taiwan (-2,100mt) and South Korea (-2,400mt) warehouses, slightly compensated in
other places, continued for yet another week. We hasten to add that LME copper stocks
in both Taiwan and South Korea have increased massively this year, they have plenty
left to offer the market if so required.
 The Comex did its new things again, adding 4,724mt for a Friday close of 80,756mt.
That’s well over 70kmt added to its New Orleans warehouses since the Northern
summer, an impressive change in direction for copper inventories and as noted last
weekend, most of that metal is coming from Chile.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows 2024 is back tracking the upper limits of normality again. If
normal continues, we should see stocks drop toward, or even to, 100kmt by Christmas. Not that
far away now folks, ho ho ho.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on just one of our basket stocks:
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): Last weekend we mused on BIG as a near-term trade vehicle and
ended by saying that “…50c or so may be an opportunity price or the nimble fliptraders in the
audience.” That turned out to be close enough, as BIG dropped under 50c intraday Wednesday
before finding bidders, closing that day at 52c and then rallying into Friday’s 55c close. This

one-minute interval chart shows the stock is reasonably liquid and smarter people than me
could have traded this stock last week.
Element 29 (ECU.v): Three things to report. First the price move, which was already moving
with several other small copper stories and against the
general tide of the metals sector last week, even before it
caught fire from Wednesday on, as volume came into the
stock and added 25% to its market cap with relative ease.
The word is spreading that Elida is a hot prospect and for
my money, that’s all about the change at the top and
replacing ex-CEO Stakiw with the original boss man at ECU,
Richard Osman. Second, this 16 minute corporate video (9)
in which CEO Osmond gives general background to the
company, its history and how it grew out of GlobeTrotters
and assembled its portfolio of assets in Peru, as well as a
focus on Elida and what they’re looking for from the current drill program. A useful one for
newcomers to the stock to watch, good reference material for its closer followers. Third the
news on Wednesday morning (10) that started this way:
Vancouver, British Columbia – October 31, 2024 – Element 29 Resources Inc. (TSXV: ECU |
OTCQB: EMTRF | BVL: ECU) (“Element 29” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it
has received exemption from the Consulta Previa (“Prior Consultation”) process from the
Peruvian Ministerio de Energía y Minas – Oficina General de Gestion Social (“MINEM”) for
exploration drilling at its wholly-owned Atravesado porphyry copper-molybdenum (“Cu-Mo”)
target (“Atravesado”) as part of the Flor de Cobre project, located in the Southern Perú Copper
Belt (Figure 1).
Though not the whole ball game, as the company still needs community approval for its “semi-
detallado” drill program (up to 40 platforms) before
they can start the rigs turning, the decision by the
Peru government that the project doesn’t need a full
prior consultancy hearing and associated rigmarole
is a boost to the timeline and should allow ECU.v to
drill the zone that it’s wanted to drill at Flor de
Cobre for years, the Atravesado target. These guys
are well versed with the ways of Peruvian copper
targets and how to vector in using geophysics and
quite literally for year, Atravesado has been high on
their wish list as a place to drill. Last week’s ruling
should expedite that and, community surface rights
holders willing, ECU gets to add another string to its
bow aside from Elida.
Overall, a strong week for ECU. At around $60m
market cap, this is no longer a raging bargain and
its thin trading to date has made it tough to speculate with so far. I’d now be interested in
owning on any potential pullback
15

Camino Minerals (COR.v): For an object lesson in how the box standard grubby exploreco
will jump through no end of hoops to explain why a drill hole that’s an obvious miss and a
complete duster is a better result for the company than the market will give credit, check out
COR’s NR dated Monday 28th (11) that announced a hole from the Maria Cecilia target at its
main Los Chapitos projecty in Peru of 234m 0.08% Cu, 0.007ppm Au, 0.51ppm Ag, 57ppm Mo
and reporting in those kicker metals in parts per million doesn’t make them any better. Among
other delights, we read in the NR that the hole “confirms mineral zonation of a porphyry system
at Maria Cecilia” and in the words of CEO Jay Chmelauskas, “While we intercepted 234 metres
of continuous copper mineralization, the grades at Maria Cecilia still do not explain the metal
content in the ground, either pyrite or chalcopyrite, generating a significant geophysical
anomaly.” Whatever that might mean, exactly. But my favourite has to be from COR’s
Geological consultant, Jose Bassan, who sagely told us that “…the main source of copper
mineralization has not yet been reached.” You don’t say…
COR was out pick as representative of the tinycap end of copper’s exploreco world this year and
it’s turned out to be highly representative. Pumped on social media, torching shareholder cash
and promising jam tomorrow with new deals, it’s an excellent example of what investors in the
mining sector need to avoid like the plague.
The Producer Basket
After 44 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 38.17% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 52.17 45.26 9.4%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 42.73 85.80 56.4%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 33.45 19.05 5.3%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 25.30 131.71 18.9%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 8.38 22.99 40.8%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.883 5.72 23.95 89.5%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.95 6.40 33.1%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 204.909 3.35 16.34 26.0%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.79 9.92 54.3%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.29 8.64 48.2%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 38.17%
The precious metals producers had a second week of negative returns, our ten picks all lost
ground and our average dropped slightly more than the GDX benchmark. Least worst of our ten
was Agnico Eagle (AEM down 1.2%) thanks mainly to its earnings beat (see below), biggest
drops came from Pan American (PAAS down 7.0%), Newmont again…ugh (NEM down 6.5%)
and Wesdome (WDOFF down 6.3%).
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60% comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
16
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead) 2%
0%
-2% ikn
gdx control
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16% source: IKN calcs
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Agnico Eagle (AEM): There’s no need to rely on double-dealing Canadian analysts looking for
financial favours (innocent) or amateurs with newsletters (guilty) in the world of the big boy
Tier 1 miners, because stocks such as AEM get real coverage from real banks and instos which
allows me to relax a little. It also means they get judged on more standard criteria such as the
hard bottom line of net earnings and that’s its own double-edged sword, but those are the
rules. It’s almost as if the world thinks mining companies are normal entities, the fools. But the
advantage that amateurs with newsletters have in leaving the complex analysis of the multi-
mine companies remains, because big boys read big boys and the reaction to any given set of
financials after earnings will reflect on whether they beat estimates or not.
That word salad introduces the AEM 3q24 and there were seven analysts covering the stock
and coming into earnings last Wednesday (12). Their EPS estimates ranged from U$0.76 to
U$1.12, with the median at U$0.98 and means the U$1.13 net EPS reported by Agnico (13) was
a beat, whichever way you looked at it, driven once again by AEM’s ability to do something that
seems to be beyond the capacity of Newmont, Barrick and other large PM miners.
We’re not going deeply into the AEM results (it would take 30 pages to do the company
justice), but a couple of our tracking charts show just how efficiently the company has been
converted gold into money in the last couple of
years, which means that the recent surge in the AEM: Revenues from mining operations vs
price of gold funnels the extra revenues straight production costs, per qtr
2400
through the company books and into the profit 2200
2000 column. They start with the chart (right) 1800
1600
showing that most basic of metrics, revenues vs
1400
production costs and the stand-out visual is the 1200
1000
flat nature of COGS at AEM, a very different 800
story to that of closest peers such as Newmont 600
400
(NEM) and Barrick (GOLD) in the last couple of 200
0
years.
These two charts crunch the data a little further
and demonstrate how AEM’s margins keep on
expanding with gold in dollar terms (below left) but most impressively, as a percentage of costs
(below right). Operating margin as a percentage of gross revenues reached a new record of
63.6% in 3q24, a number that NEM (see below) or GOLD can only dream about and with the
run bullion has put in during October, that’s only going to expand further in 4q24.
So yes, AEM was down 1.2% on the week and that’s
not up, but if we note the relative strength it’s
shown compared to GDX in the last ten days (chart
right), the difference is stark. AEM is now just under
U$10m ahead in market cap terms to Barrick and
under U$10m behind Newmont. An outstanding year
17
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
Revs
COGS
source: company filings
AEM: Operating margin, per qtr
87.672 18.765 06.355 52.235 06.155 91.825 64.484
59.366 24.329 26.297 48.717 25.658 49.479 00.388 91.979
42.6401 46.4031 69.1731
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m AEM: operating margin as percentage
of gross revenues, per qtr
source: company filings
%7.94 %9.75 %6.95 %0.65 %0.65 %7.35 %9.05 %1.05 %4.85 %7.45 %8.15 %7.65 %7.65 %8.35 %7.55 %2.75 %8.26 %6.36
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: company filings, IKN calcs

for the best precious metals mining company in the world.
Newmont (NEM): Another poor performance on the week and since reporting its costs
blowout quarter on October 24th, the stock has lost U$12.48 per share or 21.6% in percentage
terms, or U$14.38Bn in market cap. Wowsers.
Following on from the cost efficiency we noted in Agnico (AEM) above and to provide more
context via this market peer that’s most definitely NOT doing things the right way, consider that
NEM guided 2024 AISC at U$1,400/oz at the start of the year, all while swearing on the Holy
books that its merger with Newcrest would bring significant economies of scale and synergies.
That hasn’t turned out to be so and here’s some scratch math on the size of the money pit NEM
created. Let’s forgive them 1q24 because the merger was still being finalized, but the average
AISC miss in the last six months (i.e. 2q24 and 3q24) of U$185/oz means that once we to the
math on ounces produced that somewhere and somehow, NEM has spent just under U$630m
more to produce its gold than it forecast. That’s not COGS total, that’s just the extra amount
compared to its original forecast.
In other words, a hundred million dollars a month in unforeseen costs of doing business so tell,
me, how in the name of the aforementioned Holy books can a company “fail to predict” that
sort of cost hike? You could literally build a world class mine for the amount of money NEM has
swirled down the toilet and if you don’t believe me, ask Alex Black of Rio2.
Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to): Final reminder that WDO reports its 3q24 on November 6th,
that’s this coming Wednesday and another entry into a
packed diary for that day (if FOMC, the election and
SilverCrest proxy Coeur’s Q3 weren’t enough already).
We know the 3q24 production and sales numbers
because WDO told us on October 17th (14) and we also
checked out the implications in IKN805 that weekend
and used words and phrases such as “acceptable” and
“in-line” to describe them (this chart a quick reminder,
including our best guess production numbers for 4q24
that aim WDO to the 170k oz for 2024 indicated by CEO
Bath). Therefore this week is all about costs and the
market will reacted accordingly if WDO is deemed
cheaper or more expensive to run that expected.
WDO: Gold prod/qtr
18
69312
63892
12632 76242 43391 65771 50471 20552 95102 54822 19302 99842 27291 88632
9614 8423
5511 8147
51128914 7877 7369
5208
92961 44121
47042
36742 12412
00042
00042
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
Ozt Au
Kiena
Mishi
Eagle River
source: WDO filings
The TinyCaps List
After 44 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 45.63% to level stakes:

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 252.95 22.77 0.09 38.5%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 86.798 36.02 0.415 207.4%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 40.12 0.375 120.6%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 22.52 0.15 -16.7%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 4.87 0.055 -45.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 96.476 9.17 0.095 26.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 16.75 0.235 80.8%
South Star STS.v 0.750 52.64 30.00 0.57 -24.0%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 31.33 0.11 22.2%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 20.72 0.175 45.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 45.63%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Our basket tracking the fate of sector minnows took 100% TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
a step back last week, with eight losers (BAY.v, 90%
80%
ARIC.v, DMX.v, LMS.v, PA.v, STS.v, SURG.v, VAU.v) 70%
and just two winners (EDG.v, KLDC.v) combining to 60%
50%
drop the basket average by 10.67%. That’s a big 40%
shift and it was led by rhe 20.8% adjustment in 30%
20%
Latin Metals (LMS.v) and the risk-averse atmosphere
10%
in last week’s market showed its face here as well. 0%
Latin Metals (LMS.v): The big winner of last week
gave it all back this week, mostly due to a seller that
popped up on Thursday and dropped over half a million
shares onto this thin market. That’s what happens to these
tinycaps on occasion, part of the territory, but the drop last
week doesn’t change my position regarding this newly
interesting stock one iota. As noted last weekend, the
bootleather-type exploration permit on Esperanza is good
news but the acid test will be whether the it and its new
option partner Moxico can get permission to drill. If that
piece of paper shows up, I’m a buyer of LMS the next day.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): The tried and trusted mining
market adage “Good news travels fast, bad news slowly” is
worth a little meditation time this weekend as the longer this
takes to publish drill results from Odienné, the more likely it
is not to deliver the same type of eye-popping hits that got
the stock running in March and the weeks of treading water
are now beginning to pile up. The only NR from the current
drill program came on September 9th (15) when ARICV
19
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3von
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

reported decent widths from the BBM zone. On that day, we were told that “Assay results are
pending for 6 more holes from this drill program, from both BBM and Charger” and as Charger
is the location of the big hits, that’s what the market is truly waiting for at this stage. And
waiting. And waiting. Tomorrow Monday will mark eight weeks of pending, that’s long enough
to start suspicions of less than-optimum core. It’s not as if the company has been hiding in the
background either, we’ve seen CEO Andrew Chubb popping up regularly at conferences and on
social media channels.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Not too much in the way of politics this week, you’ve all got enough on your plate as it is
without an extra helping from South America.
Who is the fairest of them all?
Argentina polling company CB Consultora Opinión Pública last week published (16) its poll-of-
polls on the popularity of the ten Presidents of South America (i.e. South of the Darien Gap and
no Prime Ministers) as updated to October 2024. Here are the results of the survey in chart
form…
South American Presidential approval ratings, by country
20
%1.54
%0.25
%8.64
%4.94
%6.84
%7.74
%9.84
%0.64
%6.15
%2.54
%4.55
%3.14
%1.85
%5.93
%0.16
%5.73
%1.76
%1.92
%8.37
%6.32
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% 20%
10%
0%
ellacaL
uoP
avliS
ad
ieliM añeP aoboN ecrA orteP ciroB orudaM etrauloB
positive negative ns/nr
source: CB Consultora
…and here’s the table of data:
The Ten South American Presidents by Popularity
rank Country President positive negative ns/nr
1 Uruguay Lacalle Pou 52.0% 45.1% 2.9%
2 Brazil da Silva 49.4% 46.8% 3.8%
3 Argentina Milei 47.7% 48.6% 3.7%
4 Paraguay Peña 46.0% 48.9% 5.1%
5 Ecuador Noboa 45.2% 51.6% 3.2%
6 Bolivia Arce 41.3% 55.4% 3.3%
7 Colombia Petro 39.5% 58.1% 2.4%
8 Chile Boric 37.5% 61.0% 1.5%
9 Venezuela Maduro 29.1% 67.1% 3.8%
10 Peru Boluarte 23.6% 73.8% 2.6%
source: CB Consultora
The fairest of them all is currently Luis Lacalle Pou of Uruguay, though that may be because of
the nostalgia effect we often see as a President reaches the end of their term and approval
ratings go up a few notches. The only other President to have more positive than negative
opinion in South America today is the most important one, that’s Lula of Brazil. Then come

reasonable showings for Milei of Argentina, Santiago Peña of Paraguay and Noboa of Ecuador
but after that, things start getting tougher for the incumbents.
It may be a shock for outsiders to learn that Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela isn’t at the bottom of
the list. Yes for sure he’s unloved and he surely stole the election earlier this year, but there’s
still a hardcore of support for Chavismo in the country (that won’t go away easily). Also,
Venezuela has shown economic growth in the last couple of years} and inflation isn’t quite as
bad as it used to be. No, the most hated of the me is Dina Boluarte of Peru and frankly, I
understand why. Those of you who point to Peru as a paragon of stability and political
predictability may want to have a read of our next segment, AS Peru is a political accident
waiting to happen and we now have the judiciary getting involved.
Peru: Antauro Party banned
We’re still a long way from the next Presidential election in 2026, what with the incumbent Dina
Boluarte having decided that she likes the job despite the fact that nobody in Peru likes her
(she’s currently hitting near-world records with her 4% (four percent) approval rating), but
coincidence (or not) of an snapshot poll and a significant
piece of news on the 2026 makes it worth a couple of
column inches in this edition. This visual (right) uses the
results published by Peru’s #1 pollster IPSOS and shows the
very early running for President. Keiko Fujimori leads at
12% (understandable, the small core of Fuji loyalists will be
that way until they die), with extremist-populist Antauro
Humala on 8% (so extreme it’s difficult to tell whether he’s
hard right or hard left), followed by two on 4%; the ex-
interim President Francisco Sagasti (who took over when
Martin Vizcarra resigned and is the only ex-Prez in Peru not
in jail, under arrest or on criminal trial) and Carlos Álvarez, a
famous comedian in Peru who has been doing
impersonations on TV for decades and now fancies his
chances of changing from one clownshow to another.
If it were just the snapshot poll this section wouldn’t exist,
but on Wednesday we had some real news drop (17), when
Peru’s Supreme Court ruled in favour of the State in a case
brought against Antauro Humala’s politicial party (a long
winded name that I won’t bother you with today, but one that boils down to the acronym
A.N.T.A.U.R.O.) and ordered the dissolution of the party due to it being “Contrary to democratic
principles”. Specifically, the Supreme Court highlights the party’s polities to “exclude or
persecute” immigrants or the LGBTQ community. The ruling can be appealed (there’s a one
time opportunity) and the party says it will, with spokespeople saying that the Supreme Court
ruling is arbitrary and anti-democratic.
Notably, while compiling this segment on Saturday and reading three days’ worth of news and
fallout over a decision that’s the single major news story in Peru last week, I couldn’t find a
single English language report. If this were Venezuela banning of the party of one the
frontrunners for the next Presidential election and an outspoken critic of the current
government, you’d be spoiled for choice. Anyway, Antauro is still in the running either by 1)
getting a positive appeals decision or 2) forming an alliance with another party. But it gives a
window on what goes on in the dirty world of one of the most corrupt countries in South
America (and there’s plenty of competition, too), with the tide pushing hard to get Keiko into
office at her fourth (I think) attempt.
Bolivia and more Evo crazy
You think the current political craziness stops at the Southern boarder of the USA? Try this for
size:
21

 The fight between current President Arce and ex-President Evo Morales continues, with
arce refusing to back down on the position of not letting Evo stand as candidate in next
year’s election.
 The Bolivian government has opened criminal cases against Evo for rape, human trafficking
and having sex with a minor (mostly connected to a scandal a few years ago when Evo is
alleged to have impregnated a teenage girl, the daughter of ardent party supporters who
approved of the relationship.
 On Friday, supporters of Evo Morales stormed three army guard posts around the city of
Cochabamba (military checkpoints are part of the scenery in Bolivia, I’ve had my papers
checked at them on several occasions), with 200 soldiers taken hostage (or “retained”, in
their words) and fighting between civilians and military that included protesters using
dynamite sticks as grenades. That tactic apparently worked.
 Evo this weekend announced he was going on hunger strike and is now playing the full
“political prisoner” card. His move is in support of protesters, to demand an end to the
criminal cases brought against him and to facilitate talks between him and the government
to allow him on the ballot in next year’s election.
Calling Bolivia unstable today is like calling The Eiffel Tower a well-known landmark and with no
end to the turmoil in sight, we now get to see how much weight Evo loses before either he or
President Arce blinks. Truth be told, he has been getting a bit chubby round the jowls and could
do with losing a few kilos.
Argentina: Mendoza opens up
Very little has made it to the English language mining press regarding the decision by the
Provincial government of Mendoza to sanction a specific zone of the province for mining
exploration and development, but for those so inclined this article out this weekend (18) goes
into why the so-called Malargüe Distrito Minero Occidental (or MDMO, the English translation
“Western Malargüe Mining District”) is an important step forward. The main reason is wine, as
for the last 27 years Mendoza’s powerful wine sector has blocked the concept of mine
development, claiming that the contamination from mining may harm their business and image.
The real reason is that the wineries and the rich families that control them didn’t want to lose
power over rural communities, which have always been their source for cheap labour during the
harvest period. But times change and the MDMO plan has been quietly approved by the agro
people, making this the first time that its parliament has cross party support for mining in the
modern era. There are apparently 34 mining projects located in the MDMO zone and they will
now enjoy easier permitting for drilling, exploration and (as long as things go well, eventual
development into mines. Once again, proof that Javier Milei has brought a powerful wind of
change to Argentina’s mining sector, everyone wants some of those RIGI dollars.
Market Watching
Dropping Fitzroy Minerals (FTZ.v)
What with the stock price running without me and removing at least some of the potential, I’d
already floated the idea of cutting FTZ.v from the Watch List. However, the events of last week
make the decision very easy indeed and I’m just thankful it was here and not on the main list,
as I’d now be holding grubby equity and feeling rather sheepish about reco’ing an obvious scam
to readers of The IKN Weekly.
Last week, FTZ announced published this NR (19) under the title line “Fitzroy Minerals
Announces Acquisition of Ptolemy Mining Limited”. Ptolemy Mining is the owner of the Buen
Retiro suite of projects in Chile, its main event being an IOCG project that has seen previous
mining activity and has graded well for oxide copper, with a reported hole of 135m of 0.73%
Cu. In the words of FTZ CEO Merlin Marr-Johnson:
"The Buen Retiro Project is a transformational acquisition for Fitzroy Minerals. The Buen Retiro
Project offers the opportunity to work on a potentially significant IOCG deposit in a copper-rich
22

district in Chile, the worlds’ leading copper-producing country. There is a real shortage of large
open pittable copper deposits with excellent infrastructure in established mining jurisdictions.
Buen Retiro offers Fitzroy Minerals shareholders significant discovery leverage into a copper bull
market.”
Fair enough and there are plenty of details on the property in the long NR, including core
photos and tables of resource estimates, so if you want to know more that’s the place to go.
But when the NR gets to the terms of the deal that the red flags start showing, beginning with
this:
“Under the terms of the Definitive Agreement, the Company has agreed to issue 88,000,000 of
its common shares (the “Consideration Shares”) to the Vendors in exchange for all of the issued
and outstanding securities of Ptolemy.”
That’s a lot of shares of a company with shares priced at 26c when the trading halt dropped
last week (it’s still halted, fwiw). We then learn that the “…parties have agreed to undertake
commercially reasonable efforts to close the Acquisition on or before December 31, 2024”, with
January 31st 2024 (sic, they almost certainly meant 2025) as the fail date. But then we get
this:
“Mr. Matthew Gordon, the principal of one of the Vendors, Ptolemy Capital Limited, will have a
right to join the Company’s board of directors, but will not be joining on closing of the
Acquisition.”
That name rang a bell. In fact a very large bell so to confirm, a quick search of the UK
Companies House website revealed (20) that the major shareholder of Ptolemy Mining, Ptolemy
Capital Ltd, has four officers, namely Matthew Gordon, his wife and their two children, all
registered at the same address. And yes, that Matthew Gordon is indeed the front man for Crux
Investor, the mining media channel that has gained plenty of traction in the market in recent
years and these days centers its efforts on pay-to-play promotional interviews with CEOs,
mostly with junior mining companies. Another prominent presenter at Crux Investor is Merlin
Marr-Johnson, CEO of Fitzroy Minerals, something I already knew (of course), but as Mr. Marr-
Johnson was a qualified geologist with other irons in his fire before joining Crux Investor, it
didn’t seem like a massive conflict of interest at the time.
I was wrong. Further searching at UK Companies House for Ptolemy Mining Ltd (21) reveals
that the privco has 9,000,020 shares, for which its shareholders paid a sum total of £920
(U$1,189). They include Ptolemy Capital and the geologist partner from Chile Gilberto Schubert
(who brought the Buen Retiro Project to the table and in such circumstances, you’d expect him
to want his share. But the devil is in the details at Ptolemy Mining: For example, both Gilberto
Schubert and Merlin Alexander Marr-Johnson (full name, for what its worth) were appointed as
directors on January 4th 2024. Then suddenly, on June 23rd, Marr-Johnson resigns his position
at the privco, timed just four days before Fitzroy Minerals announced it had entered into an
exclusivity agreement with Ptolemy Mining to negotiate the Buen Retiro property paying
Ptolemy Mining $100k for the privilege. Then, of course, came the announcement last week to
buy Ptolemy Mining for 88m shares of FTZ. We can also put a ticket price on those shares, as
last week’s NR out of FTZ.v also announced it was running a private placement…
“…to raise gross proceeds of a minimum of $2,500,000, through the issuance of 12,500,000
units (the “Units”) at a price of $0.20 per Unit, and a maximum of $3,000,000, through the
issuance of 15,000,000 Units at a price of $0.20 per Unit (the “Concurrent Financing”). Each Unit
will be comprised of one common share of the Company and one-half of one common share
purchase warrant (a “Warrant”), with each whole Warrant entitling the holder thereof to purchase
one common share at a price that is the lesser of (i) $0.39 per share; or (ii) the closing price of
the Company’s common shares on the Exchange on the first trading day after the day trading
resumes following the announcement of the Acquisition, for a period of three years. The
Concurrent Financing is subject to the approval of the Exchange.”
For brevity’s sake we’ll ignore that clause (ii) of the half warrants (another layer of heads-I-win-
tails-you-lose sleaze) and focus on the ticket price of 20c. That means FTZ is paying a paper
C$17.6m in shares for Buen Retiro, which is one almighty lift from the terms of the optioning
agreement and means Ptolemy Capital is worth a lot more than £920, the price its insiders paid
for shares just two years ago. And the cherry on the cake is the way Matthew Gordon,
23

colleague of Merlin Marr-Johnson at Crux Investor and the financial centre of this opaque and
self-serving deal, has decided not to become a director of FTZ even though it’s his right as a
large shareholder. That means no accountability when he starts selling the large portion of FTZ
shares that he and his family, as owners of Ptolemy Capital, would then own.
That in UK parlance, is what you call “a nice little earner”. It’s also the type of deal that gives
the entire mining sector the bad name it so richly deserves and the people who run these
scams, exhort the naïve and hapless into buying the stock via sequin throwing and greed gland
activation, ought to be ashamed of themselves. I’ve
had enough of this type of scumbag to last me a
lifetime already, but this particular chapter of Fleece
The Greenhorn is particularly galling, run as it is by
people who have set up an entire media image
around being independent, inquisitive and on the
side of retail shareholders. The IKN Weekly drops
Fitzroy Minerals (FTZ.v) like the veritable ton of
bricks and will never return, this company is run by
double-dealing two-faced money-grabbing insiders
who don’t give a tinker’s cuss about the people
sponsoring their company. Avoid.
Argenta Silver (AGAG.v) and a 100% lift
In “Argenta Silver (AGAG.v): A heavy promo as from this week” in IKN806 last weekend, we
mused on what the new Frank Giustra promo vehicle,
based on the flashy grading but ultimately very
difficult El Quevar silver project in the Salta NOA
region of Argentina, would do in its first week of
trading. And now we know (chart right).
The company paid U$3.5m (C$4.8m) cash for El
Quevar, then the capital raising was done at 15c
(Frank has a lot of much cheaper shares than that, of
course) and once the rollback shares are in, the new
vehicle has 169.11m shares out, then there’s the little
matter of paying U$500k for promotional coverage in
channels previously used by Giustra to pump his
overpriced stock to fools, such as Daniel Ameduri’s Future Money Trends. Therefore and
arguably, the company in its present form has taken around C$30m in insider money and OPM
to set up. Therefore, seeing it trade at between 37c and 46c last week and closing at C$0.39
implies a lift of around C$36m to this weekend, over a double on outlay and you can bet every
single dollar you have in your pocket right now that those who bought shares at 15c before the
public were very willing sellers at all prices.
However, there wasn’t much chance for new money to trade the stock for near-term flip gains,
so the only true advantage this stock has is for shorters ready to ride the volatility before the
inevitable drop sets in. AGAG reports having $9m in working capital and a location that allows
for all-year exploration and drilling, so I’d expect they can make plenty of noise in the next
couple of quarters and the deposit is perfect for drilling and announcing very splashy assay
results (no need to confuse people with met, after all), so with silver still on its medium-term
uptrend, there may be higher prices before lower. That ends our coverage of this IPO and it’s
unlikely to be a company we cover with much frequency, for me it’s best considered a “set and
forget” short for instos that know Giustra’s ways and can handle the rollercoaster.
Testing myself on 35 exploration stage copper companies (Part Seven)
It’s month seven of the series and the sixth month tracking our 35 copper explroecos on a
relative basis and as per the previous editions, we’re keeping the time periods straight by using
24

the closing prices of the first of the month, November 1st, which this week works out well
because it fell on a Friday. The rules of this game are straightforward, we’re monitoring the
price action in the copper exploreco sector in the second half of 2024 looking for springers,
winners and what type of stock does best in the new environment for copper. The league table
has 35 juniors with projects, all of them copper targets and most of them in The Americas, be
that North, Central or South. The rules:
 We start with the share prices as at May 17th (recent market top)
 We take a snapshot price reading at the end of each month and report in that
weekend’s edition (e.g. today)
 We calculate the percentage change since May 17th
 We put the 35 stocks in league table order, with the best performers at the top
However, before the game started I ranked the companies and projects, according to my wholly
subjective opinion of what they have to offer. Please see IKN783 for the stocks in colour
grouping, (with three added) but by way of a reminder, here’s how I’m rating them as
prospective Value propositions:
The colour code
Big Star Green
Star Blue
Neutral Cream
Dog Orange
Big Dog Red
Please be clear, those colour codes in the final column are my own subjective opinion, not some
sort of definitive judgment and the ongoing performance of the 35 shows how bad my guesses
were to begin with.
Now for the updated table, in which they are ranked in order of percentage gain or loss since
IKN803. Back then eleven stocks were in positive territory, so the fact we now have fourteen in
the green zone suggests things are getting slightly better for copper explorecos. The next
cream-coloured zone shows those stocks down a maximum of 20% and interestingly there are
now just seven of those instead of eleven in IKN803. That suggests the winners and losers are
now splitting apart. Finally, the dog performers are in red and there are still 14 of those, same
as IKN803.
Putting myself to the test on 35 copper juniors
Rank Company Ticker Project Proj. Quality PPS May 17th Nov 1st PPS Nov 1st % change
1 Element 29 ECU.v FdC/Elida 4 0.16 0.50 212.5
2 Panoro Min PML.v Cotabambas 3 0.12 0.29 141.7
3 Trilogy Met TMQ.to UKMP 4 0.65 0.90 38.5
4 Aldebaran ALDE.v Altar 6 1.20 1.65 37.5
5 Northern Dyn NDM.to Pebble 2 0.415 0.55 32.5
6 Regulus Res REG.v AntaKori 7 1.72 2.12 23.3
7 Filo Corp FIL.to Filo 10 26.66 32.24 20.9
8 NGEx Min NGEX.to Helados 7 9.98 11.62 16.4
9 Atex Res ATX.v Valeriano 5 1.41 1.64 16.3
10 Libero LBC.v Mocoa 4 0.395 0.45 13.9
11 Faraday Cop FDY.to Copper Creek 7 0.80 0.90 12.5
12 Marimaca MARI.to Marimaca 7 4.15 4.43 6.7
13 SolGold SOLG.to Cascabel 5 0.155 0.16 3.2
14 American Eagle AE.v NAK 8 0.74 0.75 1.4
15 Cordoba Min CDB.v Alacran 3 0.47 0.44 -6.4
16 QC Copper QCCU.v Opemiska 5 0.15 0.135 -10.0
17 Pampa Metals PM.cse Piuquenes 5 0.25 0.22 -12.0
18 Arizona Son ASCU.to Cactus etc 7 1.65 1.40 -15.2
19 Hot Chili HCH.v Costa Fuego 5 0.97 0.81 -16.5
20 Kodiak KDK.v MDN 3 0.60 0.495 -17.5
21 C3 Metals CCCM.v Jamaica 3 0.41 0.33 -19.5
22 Los Andes LA.v Vizcachitas 5 10.40 7.85 -24.5
23 Alta Copper ATCU.to Cañariaco 3 0.71 0.53 -25.4
24 Western Cop WRN.to Casino 5 2.09 1.52 -27.3
25

25 Oroco OCO.v Santo Tomas 4 0.455 0.33 -27.5
26 Copper Fox CUU.v Schaft Creek 2 0.42 0.275 -34.5
27 Hercules BIG.v Hercules 7 0.89 0.55 -38.2
28 Camino Min COR.v Chapitos 3 0.065 0.04 -38.5
29 Pan Global PGZ.v Escacena 5 0.19 0.115 -39.5
30 Solaris Res SLS.to Warintza 5 5.43 3.18 -41.4
31 Kutcho KC.v Kutcho 2 0.20 0.105 -47.5
32 Surge Copper SURG.v Berg/Ootsa 4 0.22 0.11 -50.0
33 World Cop WCU.v Escalones 2 0.305 0.09 -70.5
34 Chakana PERU.v Soledad 3 0.10 0.025 -73.7
35 Sendero Res SEND.v Peñas Negras 5 0.095 0.02 -78.9
source: TSX/V data, IKN calculations
In a perfect world, the right hand column would show all the greens and blues near the top, all
the reds and oranges at the bottom. This is obviously not a perfect world and having two of my
green picks in the red penalty zone at the bottom of the table shows that quickly. The other
place where my stupid shows are the four orange picks now showing a clear profit to May 17th
(and please remember, that date is important because it was close to the very top in the copper
price surge to over U$5.00/lb). However, there are a few traits showing through among the
green group, one of which is the “Trump Trade” winners in the last few weeks. There are a
handful of mining and exploreco stocks perceived to benefit from a Donald Trump win in the US
Presidential election, as the market supposes that their permitting tracks would become either
easier, or quicker, or both. They include companies that have hit serious permitting roadbumps
in the months and years prior to where we are today, so seeing stocks such as Trilogy (TMQ.to)
and Northern Dynasty (NDM.to) in the lead group is interesting (indeed, both have moved up
significantly since IKN803).
At the top we have a new leader, as Elemet 29’s (ECU.v) recent surge puts it over 200% up in
under six months. Meanwhile, right at the bottom we have a new tail-ender and while I’m the
first to say that SEND.v has been a corporate level mess (as well as missing with its drill
assays), considering the location of its main project concessions I can’t help but wonder
whether it’s worth a high risk pop at just 2c a share.
Amerigo Resources 3q24 financial results
On Wednesday October 30th Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) reported its 3q24 financials (22) as
well as declaring its 3c Canadian quarterly dividend, as expected. Here we run over the main
points of the quarter but you’ll note that ARG has once again been relegated to the Market
Watching section, instead of making it to the main fundies section where a company of this
quality probably deserves to be seen. Three reasons for that:
 ARG had pre-announced production numbers and some of the basic sales data, too. We
covered all those in IKN804 dated October 13th in the Market Watching note “Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to) Q3 production.” There’s less new news out today than, for example,
EGO.
 ARG is a no-nonsense, steady and reliable story. If there were something out of the
ordinary it would need a closer inspection, but its 3q24 financial results came in pretty
much as expected.
 Eldorado Gold (EGO), the subject of today’s main fundies section, not only gave us its
production numbers at the same time as its financial results, but also returned more
contentious numbers that managed to move the market (though sadly, not in the right
direction for longs. It was an obvious pick over ARG.
Put those together and it means we can cover the need-to-know about ARG using less space,
down here in Market Watching again. But if you want the TL:DR, the quarter was on the low
end of in-line and perfectly acceptable. For the rest of you, we start with the standard metals
revenues overview chart, with the first one the raw number for copper, the second taking into
account the price adjustments for the metal compared to previous quarters (its invoicing
26

adjustment) and the third one royalty, TC/RC, smelting and moly have been accounted for.
Details below:
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
27
797.37 904.97 567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 897.66 2.07 846.25 908.25 882.94
630.23
855.14
2.14
3.03 5.95 591.16
4.24
582.16 787.26
129.44
379.26 448.96
206.15
397.86 341.66
834.54
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
Taken as a whole, the difference between our model as seen in IKN804 and the reality of ARG
is a case of death by a thousand cuts. Wait that's unfair, it’s more "minor bruising by a 1,000
cuts" because while many of the items were slightly against our guesstimates, overall there
really isn't that much damage done except in one place (and we'll get to that later). Here’s a list
of line items, reality compared to our forecasts as seen in IKN804:
 Copper gross proceeds were $0.7m lower than our calculation
 Our fair value adjustment was very close to the U$2.65m reality
 The DET royalty (paid to tailings owner El Teniente) was $0.6m higher than our estimate.
 Smelting and refining costs went up slightly, some $0.3m more than our estimate.
 Then our best guess for by-product revenues from moly (a tough one to get right) were
$0.76m higher than reality.
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
Put all those together and add some smaller adjustments from other line items and the final
revenues total on the top line of the P+L is U$45.44m, that compares to our best guess in
IKN804 of U$48.1m. So, slightly lower top line revenues than our model, but due to a series of
small adjustments that, this time, all went against our estimates, Nothing big and no real
“misses” as such, but the sum total means around U$2.7m less to the top line than expected.
We now get to the only real error in our
estimates, as costs at U$38.063m were
significantly higher than our U$35.5m
guesstimate. If you care to look back at IKN804 I
even thought my U$35.5m would turn out to be a
little high, what with a low overall AISC in the
quarter and how 70% of copper pounds came
from fresh tailings feed, which is usually more
cost effective.
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
Transport U$m smelting/refining ARG: Mo credits
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
605.3 267.4 116.5 822.4 683.3 142.2 294.3 149.5
930.8
958.2 85.4 478.3 454.5 993.6 142.5
9
8
7
6
5
4 3 2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG.to: Costs breakdown
933.23 869.13 414.43 800.14 71.93 143.53 353.23 544.63 611.73 901.53 360.83
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25 20
15
10
5
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
other
G&A+roy
COGS
source: company data, IKN ests

I got this one plain wrong. The biggest lump in
ARG COGS is “tolling and production” and this
chart (please note cut down Y-axis, done to show
contrast rather than any sleight of hand) shows
that came in hot. According to the company, the
extra cost was due to a laundry list of “…$0.6
million in copper reagents, $0.1 million in process
control, environmental and safety, $0.1 million in
industrial water, and $1.8 million in inventory
adjustments from more copper delivered than
produced.” While others smack of in-country price
hikes that we just have to take on the chin, my
mistake shows in that last one and I should have
seen that copper deliveries outstripped production
and done the math.
Mea culpa on the financial model done and putting what we now know together so far, we
arrive at a gross profit in 3q24 of U$7.375m:
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
28
624.12
616.1 655.3-
738.8
874.31
503.3- 420.2-
200.6 508.7
394.61
573.7
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
-5
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
source: company filings
That compares to my $12.6m gross profit forecast and hopefully by now, you see the issue.
Operating profit of U$6.98m was similarly lower than the U$10.9m forecast in IKN804.
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr 10.12
74.1- 41.5- 10.1-
44.31
72.3- 3.6- 9.3
84.6
07.51
89.6
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
ARG: MVC tolling and production cost
NB: Please note cut down Y axis
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
More importantly, the “real world margin” estimate we use when backing out DD&A now comes
in at U$12.88m, some $m lower than the forecast. In other words, still making good money and
more than enough to cover the ARG capital
returns policy (divis and buybacks) and keep
liquidity buoyant. On that subject, we note that
after a year of sidelines ARG is back buying its
own shares, paying an average of $1.77 in
October for 169,110 shares. Not a massive amount, but a statement of intent and we can
expect the company to roll forward its buyback
plan and do more in the months to come,
copper prices willing.
438.32 982.52
212.72
588.42 121.52 90.52
323.72
952.33
396.03
366.72
949.42
827.82 280.92 298.62 506.92
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
source: company filings
ARG: The real world margin
61.0- 30.1
33.21 97.71 24.02 93.22 79.61 15.22 49.52 95.3
20.0-
57.51 4.81
8.1 80.1- 41.9
52.21 25.12 88.21
28
24
20
16 12 8
4
0
-4
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests

Bottom line: An okay quarter from ARG, perhaps slightly low on the overall margin but it’s
tough to be too critical of a company delivering absolutely on its business model and busy
returning capital to its ownership base (e.g. you and
I). Also, as average received prices for copper in
3q24 were U$4.22/lb, we know they are now
making more money in Q4. On a personal note, I’m
now a tight-handed holder of ARG and not about to
make the same mistake as earlier this year when
selling. Now I’m back in (at a higher average price),
I’m not planning on making that mistake again. At
current levels ARG gives plenty of upside leverage to
copper, those bonus dividends will make sure of
that. I’ll leave you with the 2024 YTD price chart of
ARG compared to COPX and don’t forget to add 16c
of dividends to that slight out-performance.
Conclusion
IKN807 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) and Eldorado Gold (EGO) might not have many points in
common if we consider their relative size and activities, but this week they share the
unfortunate trait of getting sold off by the market on what should be considered good
news, not bad.
 I continue to be concerned about the way copper is trading.
 It’s going to be a “fun” week in politics. I remain strictly neutral on the US election and
its eventual result, not least because I don’t buy into the scare stories each side tell
about each other. The USA will still be the world’s most important country with a
general population that is doing just fine this time next year. However, I fervently hope
we have a winner declared by the time IKN808 comes around.
 Avoid Colombia.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuLyErdIegY
(2) https://www.eldoradogold.com/investors/news-releases/eldorado-gold-reports-q3-2024-financial-and-operational-
results-tightens
(3) https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=EB9o82Zh
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js0MxV8Dgdo
(5) https://redpineexp.com/red-pine-discovers-significant-gold-mineralization-in-faulted-extension-of-the-jubilee-shear-
on-the-wawa-gold-project/
29

(6) https://newcoregold.com/news/newcore-gold-drilling-intersects-0.94-g-t-gold-over-54.0-metres-including-2.08-g-t-
gold-over-11.0-metres-at-the-enchi-gold/
(7) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-announces-closing-of-c-63-million-public-offering-and-c-5-million-private-placement
(8) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2024/minera-alamos-announces-acquisition-of-sabre-gold/
(9) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fwzUrxF3qA
(10) https://www.e29copper.com/news/element-29-receives-prior-consultation-process-exemption-for-the-atravesado-
porphyry-cu-mo-target-drill-permit
(11) https://caminocorp.com/news/camino-provides-exploration-summary-for-the-maria-cecilia-copper-porphyry-project-
in-peru/
(12) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/agnico-eagle-reports-third-quarter-210000293.html
(13) https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aem/earnings
(14) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2024/Wesdome-Announces-Q3-2024-
Production-on-Track-for-Record-Production-Year/default.aspx
(15) https://awaleresources.ca/2024/09/09/awale-hits-multiple-high-grade-intercepts-including-3-3-g-t-gold-eq-over-35-
metres-at-the-bbm-zone-odienne-project/
(16) https://cbconsultoraop.com/ranking-presidentes-de-sudamerica-ranking-internacional-de-principales-alcaldes-
octubre-2024/
(17) https://rpp.pe/politica/judiciales/poder-judicial-declaro-ilegalidad-de-partido-politico-antauro-noticia-1595552
(18) https://www.losandes.com.ar/opinion/mineria-en-mendoza-otra-oportunidad/
(19) https://www.thenewswire.com/press-releases/1AJ6F4xWM-fitzroy-minerals-announces-acquisition-of-ptolemy-
mining-limited.html
(20) https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/14469229/filing-history
(21) https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/06059441
(22) https://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20241030.pdf
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
30

Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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