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The IKN Weekly
Week 806, October 27th 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, US data, Golden duds.
Fundamental Analysis: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) finances, Selling American Eagle (AE.v).
Stocks to Follow: American Eagle (AE.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v), Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v),
Florida Canyon (FCGV.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to), Eldorado Gold (EGO),
Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Hercules Metals (BIG.v), Element 29 (ECU.v), QC Copper &
Gold (QCCU.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to), Newmont (NEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Latin Metals (LMS.v), Surge Copper (SURG.v).
Regional Politics: Mexico: No strikes at Peñasquito this year, Mexico: The Senate is aware,
Chile: Acid test, Argentina: RIGI and Salta.
Market Watching: Argenta Silver (AGAG.v): A heavy promo as from this week.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
After last week’s small flurry of activity, with one purchase and two sales, this coming week will
see me selling my trade in American Eagle (AE.v) and taking profits. To offset this profit-take a
little, I’m looking to add a few Orecap (OCI.v) to the current position. Details in today’s main
Fundamentals section and in the Stocks to Follow section.
In today’s edition
 As from this week, Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) is back as a Top Pick at The IKN Weekly thanks to
its excellently designed financing package for the Fenix mine in Chile, as announced
last week. We chew over numbers in the main Fundies section.
 As per the plan in IKN797, I’m taking profits and selling American Eagle (AE.v) this
week, it hit my price target and a profit is a profit. That’s also in today’s main fundies
section, as is the decision to hedge my sale of AE.v by (trying to make) an addition to
my Orecap position. That looks particularly cheap now.
 Newmont (NEM) dumped a large bucket of cold water over the PM producer sector last
week thanks to its disappointing 3q24 financials. However, the stock sell-off looks too
sharp to this desk and those so inclined may want to take advantage of this price dip
before the Q4 results show what a large miner can do at U$2,700/oz gold. That also
applies to the other Tier One mediocrity, Barrick (GOLD). Both in today’s Producer
Basket.
 I’m not a doubter of the big picture copper story, but there’s no way round the fact that
the red metal is looking somewhat bearish in 4q24. Another reason to sell AE.v and
raise some treasury? Yes, it probably is. Expansion on those thoughts in The Copper
Basket.
1

 With the Libero Copper (LBC.v) trade off to a good start, I’m now keeping an eye on
Latin Metals (LMS.v) and for largely the same reasons. If they get the drill permit, this
penny play will be off to the races.
US data
The crazy is reaching its climax and as I write these words, we’re just ten days away from
election day (and maybe 12? Or 14?) from knowing who will take over from President Biden in
the Oval Office in 2025. Assuming we survive the week of rising noise, of course, but before we
get there we also have the final major US macro data drop before the vote. Friday October 1st
sees the US BLS Employment Report for October and according to Calculated Risk (1), current
market consensus is for +120K NFP jobs and a headline unemployment rate stay unchanged,
at 4.1%. The 120k number looks like an easy barrier to beat, considering the recent reports
such as September’s +254k jobs, but that’s just me. Anyway, expect the politicos to find ways
of using the data in their favour no matter which side of the game they’re on.
While on the subject and at the risk of
annoying the same people who were
annoyed at my intro of a couple of weeks
ago, Polymarket this weekend now puts
Donald Trump in at a clear advantage
65/35 for the election (chart right).
We are clear about the limitations of
relying on a betting market and it’s worth
noting that most polls have the race either
to a slight Harris advantage or too close to call. That suggests that the current confidence
shown by the Republican side of the argument will retreat a little before the big day and I’d
expect that to be reflected in the Polymarket odds in the next few days (not least because it’s in
the GOP interest to avoid voter complacency). We’ve seen the markets move in “Trump Trade”
directions for the past couple of weeks, moves that include adjustments in some of the biggest
wheels in the stock market. Down at our tiny level, they’ve included rallies in US-exposed
mining stocks dependent on permitting (TMQ, ITR etc) and those may see pullbacks as the big
day approaches. However, they are also a signal to what might happen if Trump gets the win
post-November 5th and that’s the way I’m considering possible trades post-election, witnessing
“dress rehearsal” moves in these small stocks that would become much larger rallies if and
when GOP wins. However, it’s also clear that this election is not over, not by any means and
while I’m sticking with my call, a DEM win wouldn’t be a shock to the personal system.
Golden duds
We cover the details of Newmont’s Q3 report and the fall-out that ensued in Producer Basket
below (with the emphasis on ‘fall’), but here’s an extra line to reiterate that the fate of the
world’s biggest mining company matters to us, here at the lower end of the food chain trying to
pick a winner or two among the junior producers and explorecos. Mining is like any other
business sector in this respect, it needs standard bearer stocks to lead the way and advertise
the benefits of exposure to the wider investment and trading world. NEM is important, not only
because it’s the world’s largest publicly traded precious metals mining company but also
because it’s the only stock in our PM sector in the S&P500 (Freeport is copper, you see). Seeing
NEM disappoint is bad for us all, not just that company and not just the producers that felt
collateral damage last week as generalist
GLD gold holdings 2024 YTD
money retreated from “those gold miners that
900 (metric tonnes)
never meet guidance”. 890
880
870
However, gold the metal once again
860
performed well and we’re finally seeing clear 850
840
indications of safe haven buying among the
830
Wall St types, with GLD inventories now 820
pushing 2024 highs. 810
800
2
42/1/2 42/1/21 42/1/22 42/2/1 42/2/11 42/2/12 42/3/2 42/3/21 42/3/22 42/4/1 42/4/11 42/4/12 42/5/1 42/5/11 42/5/12 42/5/13 42/6/01 42/6/02 42/6/03 42/7/01 42/7/02 42/7/03 42/8/9 42/8/91 42/8/92 42/9/8 42/9/81 42/9/82 42/01/8 42/01/81
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) finances
It’s a good day, because the final key piece is in place for a Fenix now rising from the ashes of
its 2022 permit denial issues, as with confirmation of a friendly and manageable financial deal
to build its mine, rio2 Ltd is returned to the head of the pack here at The IKN Weekly and is
once again a Top Pick stock, alongside Minera Alamos. The main fundies section today hopes to
explain why.
There was been plenty of anticipation on the financing deal, the reality is now with us and as
late as this time last week, your author as was still making best guesses about the timing, size
and make-up of the impending package for RIO.v and its Fenix gold project in Chile. Part of
IKN805 guesstimated a U$100m debt package, and a $30m to $40m equity raise (which if they
could upsize would also send a strong positive signal to the market. As things turned out, we
got all that and more (2) so today we consider the bones of the package and see how that
works in the financial cash flows model. We begin with the NR dated Monday, October 21:
Vancouver, BC - Rio2 Limited (“Rio2” or the “Company”) (TSXV: RIO; OTCQX: RIOFF; BVL:
RIO) today announces that it has arranged a mine construction financing package expected to
total approximately US$150 million for construction and general working capital of the
Company’s 100%-owned Fenix Gold Project in Chile (“Fenix Gold” or the “Project”).
This funding package marks a significant de-risking milestone for Fenix Gold, and with all key
sectorial permits for construction now in hand, Rio2 is positioned to fully execute the
development, ramp-up and operation of the Fenix Gold mine.
The total financing package is comprised of the following:
 US$120 million financing package (the “Wheaton Financing”) with Wheaton Precious Metals
International Ltd. (“Wheaton”);
 Overnight marketed public offering of common shares of the Company (“Common Shares”)
to raise gross proceeds of up to C$40 million led by Raymond James Ltd. and Eight Capital
(the “Public Offering”); and
 Non-brokered private placement of Common Shares to Wheaton for proceeds of C$5 million
(the “Wheaton Private Placement”).
The NR continues (of course), please read for full details. That was just
a few hours after IKN805 dropped and while largely along the lines of
our guesstimate, with a U$100m debt package, a U$20m stand-by and a
C45m in equity financing, the devil was in the details and overall, it’s a
better package than expected. The biggest surprise was the lack of
standard financial debt. Instead, the rump of capex is coming from
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) in a deal that tops up its previous
stream on eventual Fenix production (6% until 90k oz, then 4% for life
of mine, now at 20% gold price). In exchange for U$100m, WPM gets
this payment schedule of gold in the new “Flexible Prepay Arrangement
(table right).
This is a smart deal, first and foremost because it’s a comfortable
payback schedule for RIO, and one the company can achieve fully in the
first Phase 1 of mine life at Fenix. Secondly and importantly, they get a world class name as
backer in WPM, one that has surely helped the sale of the equity portion of the deal. Regarding
that, it was set at $40m on Monday then the next day October 22 RIO.v, announced the
pricing of the share offering, as well as upsizing due to strong demand (3):
Vancouver, BC - Rio2 Limited (“Rio2” or the “Company”) (TSXV: RIO; OTCQX: RIOFF; BVL: RIO) is pleased
to announce that it has priced and upsized its previously announced overnight marketed public offering (the
“Public Offering”) of common shares (the “Common Shares”) of the Company from up to C$40 million to
C$55 million. Overall, 84,615,400 Common Shares will be issued at a price of C$0.65 per Common Share.
And…
The Company announces that the previously announced non-brokered C$5 million private placement to
Wheaton Precious Metals International Ltd. or an affiliate will also be conducted at a price of C$0.65 per
Common Share (the “Wheaton Private Placement”). The Wheaton Private Placement will be completed
concurrently with the Public Offering and the use of proceeds therefrom will remain as previously disclosed.
3

Do the math and add to our estimated 3q24 share count and we arrive at an IKN-estimated
418m shares out once this deal is closed. And note the use of the word “therefrom”, you can
always tell when laywers are involved. Anyway, the
table right shows how the RIO.v share count has RIO.v: Shares out
evolved until now and where it’s about to go, but
from here there’s no reason to expect any big jumps
in the count (aside from insiders exercising their
incentive options).
So with the financial package now known, we can
take a swing at what the model means for Fenix
financials. The following is based squarely on what
we already know, that in turn informed by the
December 2023 Feasibility Study (FS) for Fenix with
an effective date of October 2023. As out previous
model, we’re going to sort the financials into phases, with the new cut offs at Year One (the
ramp year, as the WPM deal is distinct as well), then years 2 to 7 that assume the Phase One
mine runs as planned, trucked in water etc. Then comes the expansion period which assumes
that a permanent water supply is sourced (pipeline or aquifer) by that time. Finally Fenix moves
into its mature phase of low grade high bulk heap leaching, which should be good for at least
12 years at current resource levels (and probably a lot more than that). Here are some details,
then out updated production framework:
 Year 1: The ramp year as Fenix gets off the ground, we now assume as for 1q26. Early ore
runs from the higher grading zones at an average of 0.7 g/t, for production of just under
60,000 oz in this first year. Deliveries to WPM include 6% of production and 8,000 oz at 20%
spot price, as per the new agreement.
 Years 2 to 7: Now running at full capacity for Stage One, a 20,000tpd mine averaging 0.5 g/t
gold on pad and the same assumed 76% overall recovery rate (even though that’s probably
conservative over the long-term. During this phase, Fenix delivers an average of 6% of
production and 15,000 oz to WPM at 20% spot price
 Years 8-10: We now envision these as the expansion years as the project matures and
throughput expands as more water becomes available (via pipeline). As Fenix goes through
this expansion phase, the $100m stream facility has already been paid down and RIO.v only
delivers 4% of production to WPM at 20% cost.
 Year 10+: The fully expanded Fenix is now running at 80,000tpd, grade has dropped to an
average of 0.35 g/t gold, WPM gets the same 4% at 20% spot.
From that and other minor model line items, here’s how our production schedule now looks:
RIO.v: Fenix average year operating parameters
Year 1 Year 2-7 Year 8-10 Year 10+
Tonnes per year 3,500,000 7,000,000 17,500,000 28,000,000
Avg grade (g/t Au) 0.70 0.50 0.47 0.35
Au prod oz (76% rec) 59,871 85,531 200,997 253,170
source: RIO data, IKN calcs & estimates
RIO.v has always been clear about two facts, that 1) the approved mine plan is Stage 1 of a
larger eventual operation and 2) Fenix is much more than a 20,000tpd heap-leacher. So the
first seven years of our model go with Phase 12, but from Year 8 the expansion begins and we
expect the final mine to run for at least 12 years, producing 250k oz gold/year average.
We now move to some of the financial parameters and our new model presumes 30% higher
costs than in December 2023, but to the upside our gold price assumption is up from
U$1,800/oz to U$2,500/oz. That’s highly conservative, but models work better that way so as
4
49.201 20.301 42.811 42.811
87.081 34.181 34.181 83.281 71.091 17.091 95.991 78.991 43.452 43.452 96.652 15.752 15.752 65.752 46.752 83.852 57.852 32.952 75.952
6.813
423
814 814
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
M s/o
source: company filings

usual, we bake low-end prices into the spreadsheet and not current spot, leaving surprises to
the upside. Throughout the mine life, we assume 15% from gross gold price for TC/RC,
transport and marketing. Add in the minor revenue from WPM for the delivered gold and we get
the total sales as seen here for each phase.
RIO at Fenix: Model Year Revenues & Op Income (U$m)
Year Year 1 Year 2-7 Year 8-10 Year 10+
Prod. gold (Oz) 59,871 85,531 200,997 253,170
U$/oz $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 $2,500
WPM stream revs 5.80 10.07 4.02 5.06
Other sales rev 120.7 163.5 482.4 607.6
total Au rev $126.5 $173.6 $486.4 $612.7
TC/RC/trans/mkt 19.0 26.0 73.0 91.9
total sales 107.5 147.5 413.5 520.8
Sources: RIO data, IKN calcs and estimates
Then comes the model income statement, which has adjusted operating costs to around 30%
higher than in our previous model (though that’s probably too sharp for the near-dated years).
That’s the main discount from sales, notably the new model assumes zero interest payment on
debt as the gold is delivered to pay off the loan (how RIO.v accounts for that in the balance
sheet is not an issue I need to contend with by going this route). To the upside, tax rates in the
early eyars should be low as RIO.v benefits from Chilean tax breaks on investment capital.
RIO at Fenix: Condensed income statement (U$2,500/oz gold)
at 410m S/O Year 1 Year 2-7 Year 8-10 Year 10+
Sales (U$m) 107.5 147.5 413.5 520.8
COGS 52.5 91.0 175.0 224.0
Depreciation 7.0 14.0 27.0 32.0
SGA+R&D 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Chile mine tax 1.1 1.5 4.1 5.2
Op income 38.9 33.1 199.3 251.6
Workers Part. 3.1 2.6 15.9 20.1
Eff.Tax 7.9 6.7 49.5 62.5
Net income 27.9 23.7 133.9 169.0
Shares out 418 418 418 418
EPS 0.07 0.06 0.32 0.40
Sources: RIO data, IKN calcs & estimates
What we see from the model is that the first Phase One years won’t produce much bottom line
profit, not at U$2.500/oz anyway and with 418m share out now, EPS gets diluted to a thin 6c
per year. Obviously, that’s not enough to justify a multi-dollar share price which means that the
real wealth creation at this company happens once the gold facility is paid down and the mine
goes through its expansion period. Once it’s running at 250k/oz per year it will be able to
command the type of U$1bn+ market cap that profitable mining companies of this size
demand, that’s when it becomes a C$3.00+ share price. But not before, as there’s a process to
go through with stages that bring their own moments of re-rate.
That first re-rate moment is upon us now and once
the share offering closes (this coming week on the
29th, I am told) and the official green light on
construction at Fenix is given (November, i.e. two
weeks’ time), that process should begin. The
comfortable repayment schedule and fully permitted
mine (with plenty of understanding of local fauna
now under RIO’s belt) should see RIO move up to a
first level of C$1.00 fairly quickly, and that’s where
I’m setting my first target price for the stock as it
starts back as a Top Pick. That’s only 37% higher
5

than this weekend’s 73c share price and not a massive upside target, but it will surely be a
staging post in RIO.v journey from developer to full-scale producer. We’ve waited through an
18 month fallow period and suffered along the way, there’s no need to rush the process now
that things will start to become more pleasurable. So the bottom line takeaway is that RIO.v is
back as a Top Pick, I expect it to move up to the C$1.00 level fairly quickly and a near-term
36% target is a good place to start this period of true wealth creation.
Selling American Eagle (AE.v)
This trade began in IKN797 dated August 25th, via main Fundamental Analysis note that week
was entitled “Buying American Eagle Gold Corp (AE.v) as a near-term trade”. It was predicated
on the price drop in one of the year’s most exciting copper exploreco stories as it announced
the first assay results of its 2024 season at NAK. The note was only two months ago and for
those so inclined please check back and read it all, but by way ofr a small reminder here are the
TL:DR bullet points we put at the top of the analysis:
 We’ve followed American Eagle Gold Corp (AE.v) since it started showing interesting returns from
its NAK copper/gold project in BC Canada.
 Last week’s assay NR disappointed a market that had been hyped up to expect more from the first
set of assay results from the 2024 drill program.
 We believe there’s a lot more to come from NAK and the market’s impression last week of a project
that has demonstrated its limits is far from the truth.
 With copper now recovering and at least 15 holes pending from the current program, there’s every
reason to expect the stock price to rebound as soon as AE hits better mineralization.
 We don’t need to make a long-term investment in AE to make money at these prices. Instead, I’m
going to run a strict trade plan with a near-term outlook, with a more modest objective of selling
when the price returns to its recent 60c level. This would offer a reasonable 30% (or so) return for
a near-term trade.
Here’s a price chart of AE.v since then:
The potted history to this week is that I got in at 43c, I could have got in at under 40c if I’d
waited a couple of days, that turned out to be the good window
I’d imagined as the stock then rallied back to 45c and then into
a settled range between 50c and 55c. That made it easy to hold
as we awaited the next set of assay results, which brings us to
this week and on Monday October 21st AE dropped the NR (4)
“American Eagle Extends High-Grade Near-Surface Mineralization
with Multiple +1% Copper Equivalent Intercepts; Confirms
Continuity of Mineralization >1km Along Trend”, plenty of words
to introduce the results from five holes in the Southern end and
central zone of NAK. These holes, Holes NAK24-22, 24, 25, 26
and 28 were in global terms okay without being game-changers
(see map right).
6

Arguably the best was #28, returning 451m of 0.45% CuEq from neat surface, but all reported
holes provided decent hits of the known mineralization
and will go a long way to help the team understand
the geology as the program develops. However, the
market wants it all and wants it now, and as seen
above, shrugged at the news and put AE under 50c for
a couple of days.
Then we saw a big change in sentiment and the stock
gained bigtime momentum when, on Thursday, AE
dropped a new corporate presentation (5). Included
were core photos of holes recent cut and being logged
by the team on site and it’s those visuals that got
hearts fluttering. Here’s an example, one of the
images that’s undoubtedly impressive and labeled
“Chalcopyrite, Bornite and instances of Bornite rimmed
with Chalcocite in disseminations” in the presentation.
There are plenty more on show too, it’s well worth
checking out the presentation. Indeed, so impressive that social media started talking up the
images and momentum took over, with AE getting bought all through Thursday and Friday to
close at multi-week highs on Friday afternoon.
This map (right) locates the juicy new holes, at the North
end of the known NAK mineralization and a zone we
previously earmarked in IKN797 as one of the promising
areas. It’s clear AE at NAK has hit good lengths of
economic mineralization and there’s going to be plenty of
breath being bated as we wait for the assay results from
these long holes.
Frankly, I think AE could be onto something big here and I
wouldn’t blame anyone for holding into the assay results
NR to take their chances. If they can open up the deposit
with new long intercepts of higher grading material, the
current C$97.1m market cap could be left in the rear view
mirror. However on a personal basis, I’m going to take the
opportunity to sell this coming week and take profits. The
reason is simple, it’s the second part of the phrase “buy
low sell high”. The plan from IKN797 was clear and in fatc,
the run last week blew the stock well past what I’d accept
as a near-term win. Instead of 60c or so, AE.v is now a 73c stock and if the momentum runs
into tomorrow, even that price may be beaten. Of course, those buying tomorrow may end up
making me look very stupid, the assays from #35 and #38 blow the world away and NAK
becomes the next hot copper property on the world stage. It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve sold
a winner too early We don’t need to make a long-term investment in AE to make money at
these prices. Instead, I’m going to run a strict trade plan with a near-term outlook, with a more
modest objective of selling when the price returns to its recent 60c level. This would offer a
reasonable 30% (or so) return for a near-term trade.
The bottom line: A plan is a plan, so I’m selling my AE position, taking the quick profit and
banking some cash. For sure I could change the plan, hold through on AE and turn it into a
mega trade if the next set of holes from the North of the property move NAK up a gear in the
eyes of the market, but as stated on (far too) many occasions, trades announced in The IKN
Weekly trades are not run on a hypothesis or for marketing purposes. The system of “eat your
own food” must come as a part of an overall portfolio strategy, there’s no choice, so when we
go into a trade with a clear plan to take profits in the near term and the share price does what’s
required of it (in fact more, in this case), the choice is easy to make and if the buyer of my
7

shares next week goes on to make a massive profit with them, I wish that person the best of
fortune.
The kicker: Looking to add Orecap (OCI.v). However, the photos as seen late last week
are not merely fluffy pumpo rockporn from a scammy exploreco, those NAK coreboxes contain
what looks like real deal porphyry copper (and moly) mineralization of the type that can make a
mine. We don’t know the widths, we don’t know just how cherry-picked those close-ups were,
we don’t know how the entire deposit is going to hang together yet (we’ve already seen the
interrupted nature of the orebody in the South of NAK, with dykes and intrusions), but we do
this is a big system and those tend to have a sweet spot core.
As this could be big, the speculator side of me is still interested even though I’m selling this
successful trade with specific parameters and fortunately, there’s an obvious hedge available to
me and my portfolio. I am already a small holder of Orecap Inc (OCI.v), the “centre cog”
company in the Ore Group mini empire and one of its central pillars is its 11.7m share position
in AE. So for a little mor eon the reasoning, please see below in the Stocks to Follow notes and
while it’s not guaranteed I’ll get them, I do plan to spend at least some of the AE winnings on
improving the size of my OCI position.
Stocks to Follow
It was a mixed bag of performances for the Stocks to Follow list, with nine week-over-week
winners (RIO.v, MARI.to, AE.v, BCM.v, FCGV.v, LBC.v, ALDE.v, IPT.v, FTZ.v) from the 21 names
as long as we cheat a bit include the two the left the list and the one that arrived. There was
one stand-out winner American Eagle (AE.v up 40.4%), that ran hard and provided the near-
term flip win we sought. Other double-figure moves came from the new position in Libero
Copper (LBC.v up 28.3%) and we caught half of that, also Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v up
11.1%) did well and allowed us to sell at a rewarding price. Two stocks remained unchanged
on the week (RPX.v, MIRL.cse), that leaves ten losers (MAI.v, SILV, EGO, ARG.to, NCAU.v,
PGZ.v, OCI.v, PGDC.v, PAU.cse, MENE.v) and wh9ile most were small losses, we saw double
figures percentage losses in Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v down 14.3%), Mene Inc (MENE.v down
12.5%) and Provenance Gold (PAU.cse down 11.6%).
With the loss of BCM.v and FCGV.v, then the addition of LBC,v to the list, we’re down to 19
open positions on our Stocks to Follow, one less than our standard maximum. Thirteen stocks
are in the green, six are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.395 85.7% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.73 -8.8% Now building Fenix, will re-rate
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
SilverCrest Met SILV HOLD U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$10.83 57.0% under offer, holding
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$17.38 5.0% key 3q24 filing this week
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.76 14.3% Core copper position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.30 41.0% Quality Cu developer
American Eagle AE.v SELLING C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.73 69.8% taking profit on NT flip
Red Pine Expl RPX.v BUY C$0.105 8-Sep24 C$0.15 42.9% New sm position, will build
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.36 75.6% Cheap Au in West Africa
Libero Copper LBC.v SPEC BUY C$0.34 20-Oct-24 C$0.385 13.2% spec trade on Mocoa drilling
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.12 -36.8% Cu jr, may add post financing
Orecap Inv OCI.v ADDING C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.055 -8.3% trying to add this week (illiquid)
SPECULATIVE TRADES
8

Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$1.41 95.8% finally moving up, hold to 1q25
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.295 -1.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Fitzroy Min FTZ.v WATCH C$0.17 4-Aug-24 C$0.27 58.8% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.03 50.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.19 100.0% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.105 -78.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v Oct'24 C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.71 12.7% failed trade with a lucky win
Bear Creek Min BCM.v Oct'24 C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.67 91.4% took profits on spec trade
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
American Eagle (AE.v): SELLING. As noted above in today’s main fundies section, I’m
taking profits on this trade. Also as noted, The Friday close of 73c would be more than
acceptable as an exit price but, with the momentum the stock managed to gather last week it’d
be silly to sell first thing tomorrow. Maybe Tuesday for the sale, we’ll see how it goes.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): POSITION OPENED. The first of two slightly embarrassing notes,
because by moving early on Monday morning I managed to snag what turned out to be just
about the cheapest shares available in LBC last
week. I try to keep it real here and usually, I’m
mediocre at reading intraday momentum and
micro-timing trades, but sometime you just get
lucky and that’s what happened here. LBC
traded briskly to Wednesday morning and
managed to reach 40c (still a buyable price in
my view, see last week) before calming into
Friday and closing up 28.3% on the week. A
strong advertisement for what it could do when
the first hole comes back from Mocoa.
We reminder readers: Most definitely not in love
with this company, trust the people running this
show about as far as you can throw them. The plan is reasonably simple, to look for an exit
once the first drill hole assay is reported and the world goes ga-ga for Mocoa’s undoubted
deposit potential.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): POSITION CLOSED: Now for the second embarrassing note,
as it now starts to sound like cherrypicking. In this case, as the stock shot out the gates on
Monday with plenty of buyers happy to bid it up, I didn’t move to act first thing Monday
morning and waited for a day before selling at what turned out to be, bar the occasional spike,
close to the best price of the week and definitely the best generally available price. The 67c sale
9

gives a 90% win in four and a bit months and if silver runs to U$50/oz and makes me look
stupid for selling BCM here, then so be it.
Florida Canyon (FCGV.v): POSITION CLOSED. The third and final trade to cover last week
is more my usual style, as I sold my FCGV for 71c and immediately regretted it, as waiting
another hour would have seen my sale at 75c or above. This also may go higher in the days to
come, what with last week’s confirmation that the deals with both HSTR and ITR have been
voted up and approved by regulators. Nevertheless, I feel somewhat fortunate to have escaped
with a small win.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): LOOKING TO ADD. As noted above in the main Fundies section, the
decision to take profits on American Eagle (AE.v) comes with a side order, as I’m going to try to
add some OCI in the days to come. A key word here is “try”, as its low volume and price makes
it a difficult stock to enter (or exit) efficiently and I’m not willing to pay any old price with a fat
finger. Getting enough of a fill at six cents or below is the plan, if it doesn’t happen then so be
it. The reason is simple, This is cheap and by using AE profits to buy here it’s a natural hedge
(on my stupidity?). Our ongoing coverage via the liquidish-ish assets valuation table proves the
point:
OCI.v: PRO FORMA Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
ticker shares owned(m) PPS value C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.730 8.53 3.4
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.430 0.04 0.0
ARIC.v 7.39 0.43 3.14 1.3
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.23 0.94 0.4
QCCU.v 39.10 0.13 5.08 2.1
MIS.cse 24.71 0.03 0.74 0.3
subtotal 18.47 7.5
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 19.97 8.1
At 247.714 S/O
That makes 6c or less a great value entry and if my decision to sell AE turns out to leave a
mountain of cash on the table for someone else, at some point the market will remember how
many shares of the company OCI owns. That and the potential from ARIC, which would only
need a repeat of the March 2024 hole at Odienné to wake up again.
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to): STOCK UNDER OFFER, HOLDING. We have to wait until
after the US election for the CDE 3q24 earnings report, that’s going to matter more to SILV
than any other event and therefore, it’s a risk holding into this 3q24 period. However, it’s one
I’m comfortable about taking. It’s one thing to sell two and speculative positions last week
(BCM, FCGV) and cue up the near-term flip American Eagle for the profit-take this coming
week, quite another to start worrying about the core positions. SilverCrest is firmly part of the
HODL
Eldorado Gold (EGO): EGO continued to come under pressure last week and while its
performance wasn’t out of the ordinary its was still under the median. To give a quick and
10

reasonable yardstick I’ve chosen the same comparatives as Newmont (NEM) below in Producer
Basket; tracking Barrick is nothing to be proud about, but a good 3q24 earnings report can
quickly change that.
Which leads on to the second and final reminder that
EGO “…will release its Third Quarter 2024 Financial
and Operational Results after the market closes on
Thursday, October 31, 2024, and will host a
conference call on Friday, November 1, 2024 at 11:30
AM ET (8:30 AM PT)”. That’s this week and it’s a set
of numbers I’m keen on reading, as EGO is the house
pick to out-perform Tier 1/Tier 2 producers this
current quarter.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Our other Top Pick (quite pleasant to write that) did this last week
(chart right). Down half a penny on the week and closed
under 40c, a couple of minor negatives that don’t mean
very much because as seen, MAI is now trading with
market peers and in many ways, that’s good to report.
We’ll probably have to wait another four weeks for its next
true catalyst when it files its 3q24 financials. As for those
elusive permits at CdO and Santana, I’m still not holding
my breath because as witnessed in the Regional Politics
section these last few editions, Mexico’s new Sheinbaum
government has taken the month to settle in and get
organized. That’s normal, but at some point we’re going to
get some type of indication or move from the new admin
or from SEMARNAT, most likely the freeing up of the
permitting track for some-or-other company or project. If MAI at Santana is first in line then so
much the better, but it won’t have to be in order to get a price boost from the news.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): We were pleased to see more
traded volume running through NCAU last weekend and
asked for “more please” in IKN805. If we studiously ignore
the damp squib of a Friday that happened and, in particular,
the 565k traded on Tuesday with buyers happily taking the
ask was good to see.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): The quiet achievement continues
and if there’s one visual that marks the change in market
attitude toward ALDE, it’s this one. The stock had
tracked the copper producer ETF (COPX) benchmark all
year until October came along, suddenly it’s got traction.
Volume has improved somewhat but it’s still patchy and
hardly a liquid trader stock, so the difference must be
the sudden lack of sellers. This is good.
Way back when this trade opened (far too long ago), the
idea was to ride an upswing, sell and move on without
worrying about the future of Altar or whether the
consortium would be able to build a mine there. It’s
taken a long time, but a reasonable window of
opportunity is now upon us as ALDE gears up to give us
its resource update this quarter (or in 1q25, this team is notoriously bad at keeping self-
imposed deadlines) followed by a PEA in 2q25 (or possibly Q3, same reason). The resource
11

update is an obvious catalyst moment and for once, ALDE’s share price won’t be restricted by a
perceived lack of treasury cash demanding an equity raise. It may be another piece in the
coincidence jigsaw (see today’s intro), but don’t be shocked if I take profits here before the end
of the year, either.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): A re-cap on the four things that matter about this trade:
 We are long not despite it being a dog of a silver stock, but because it’s a dog of a
silver stock
 It’s typically one of the last of its peer bunch to move up
 20/20 hindsight says I bought in too early, so be it
 It’s capable of running very far and very fast, given
the right circumstances
The last couple of weeks have seen IPT waking up and within
half a penny, we’re back to where we started at the 30c line.
Its near-term future depends entirely on the movement of the
price of silver and while I don’t see the Jekyll & Hyde metal
moving up to the stratospheric heights predicted by its most
ardent supporters, a fast pop to U$35/oz or so is certainly not
out of the question. IPT is my call option bet on that
possibility.
The Copper Basket
After forty-three weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 19.45% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 2217.60 11.87 65.8%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 521.10 3.22 -22.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 400.37 4.30 25.4%
4 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 239.44 1.41 58.4%
5 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.519 236.15 8.00 -32.2%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 133.265 197.23 1.48 -15.4%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 186.30 0.91 44.4%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 127.05 0.55 -60.1%
9 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 85.23 0.73 180.8%
10 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 79.37 0.335 -10.7%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 119.31 46.53 0.39 116.7%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 28.77 0.45 -22.4%
13 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 76.381 25.59 0.335 -45.1%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 22.58 0.13 8.3%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 10.33 0.05 -28.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 19.45%
The Copper Basket managed to improve over 4% The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
25%
last week, even though the headcount was a
20%
rather bearish five winners (NGEX.to, MARI.to,
15%
ALDE.v, AE.v, QCCU.v) and one unchanged stock
10%
(COR.v) versus nine losers (SLS.to, LA.v, BIG.v,
5%
ASCU.to, FDY.to, OCO.v, CCCM.v, KDK.v, ECU.v)
0%
and what’s more, there was a chunky sized loser
-5%
in the list, as Hercules Metals (BIG.v down 15.4%)
-10%
continued its volatile ride. However, all moves
were overridden by the 40.4% gain in American
12
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72
source: IKN calcs

Eagle (AE.v) on the week, that single stock accounting for +5% in the overall basket average.
That move turned a losing week into a winner and arguably, our representative basket didn’t
tell the real story of copper, for this week at least. However, it’s right to take the win whichever
way it comes and at +19.45%, our basket is at a new 2024 high (by 0.04%).
Moving to copper-the-metal, we again
had a sideways kind of week despite
early buying in Asia (that soon petered
out) and copper traded in a tight range
and with a distinct lack of volume. I’d
go as far as to say interest.
The bullish argument hasn’t changed,
with the medium-to-long term all about
the supply deficit that the world has
baked into its calculations, while the
near-term is all about Chinese stimulus
measures that never seem to appear.
I’ve seen this movie before and the
combo we’ve had the past few weeks of
1) world watching Chinese macro data soften 2) world waiting for Xi and his party to go
Keynesian and add macro stimulus 3) Xi & Co doing exactly that and then 4) world saying
“that’s not enough” doesn’t make for a happy ending. Copper hasn’t followed gold higher and
more specifically, hasn’t managed to follow silver higher in the past couple of weeks. Silver runs
on dual influences, sometimes the Dr. Jekyll of industrial metals and sometimes the Mr. Hyde of
precious metals. When I see headlines such as “silver up on safe haven buying”, a shiver goes
down the spine because silver is many things, but it most definitely is not a simple “mini gold”
trade.
Here’s a curated comment from the metals world on the same subject, courtesy of Reuters (6):
"It's not the first time that metals have got carried away with supply disruption or ore shortage stories by
ignoring demand slowdown. But in most such times, prices have started multi-month bearish trends," said
Sandeep Daga, a director at Metal Intelligence Centre.
"Bulls are refraining from adding new bets despite Chinese stimulus, while bearish stakes are at multi-year
low. A large part of panic buying from bears is over. I expect prices to slide," Daga said, adding that LME
copper could fall to $9,200 a ton."
That translates to U$4.117/lb in old money, which wouldn't represent a fearful drop in real
money terms but psychologically, it would surely do damage to copper stocks of all types.
Regulars readers of this section may recall the name of that analyst, as Mr. Daga has shown on
these pages a couple of time in recent episodes. In both IKN795 August 11th and IKN796
August 18th he was bearish on both occasions, the first time was trying to make the bear case
for copper on the back of the La Escondida industrial action (which is silly), the second time
claiming that “the global economic growth cycle has turned lower”. That second argument holds
more water and this desk is forced to agree that in the past few weeks, the signal from the
copper has been weaker than bulls would prefer. I’m one of those people and while still bullish
about the metal’s prospects in 2025
and beyond, I don’t mind admitting
that there’s some doubts about
copper in 4q24 creeping into my
thought process.
By luck or judgment, at the same time
the opportunity to sell some copper
exposure has shown up and I’m a
seller of American Eagle (AE.v) this
week as it’s reached my price target.
There’s also the case of Aldebaran,
13

which has moved up (at last) and is close to a price range at which I’d be comfortable about
selling into and moving on. Please understand that my long-term conviction on copper hasn’t
shifted and I’m still bullish, but the recent stagnancy in the copper market has given me one
more reason to take profits on AE, one less reason
to deploy the capital immediately.
Moving to our next subject, the inimitable Andy
Home turned his attention to the sudden rise in
Comex copper inventory in this article last week (7)
something we’ve been noting as odd for the last few
weeks. The report included this useful chart (right)
that shows the bulk of the inventory is coming from
Chile into New Orleans (now that Panama Canal
traffic is back to normal) so much so that in the
words of Home, “…the United States became the
major destination for Chilean copper in the May-August period as shipments to China dropped
to an average 30,300 tons.” That’s quite a datapoint, especially considering The USA is one of
the major world copper producers in its own right.
He then goes on to the explanation and, as this desk suspected without confirming, the reasons
go back to the “Trafi Squeeze” in Q2 when that trading house was caught short on physical
copper for delivery in North America. Here’s Mr. Home:
A significant portion of Chile's shipments to the United States has been delivered against short positions on
the CME.
The CME's limited range of good-delivery brands was one of the reasons the May squeeze became so acute.
Chilean metal accounts for 18 of a total 57 deliverable copper brands on the U.S. exchange, exceeding the
13 domestically-produced brands.
A total 76,440 tons of copper have entered CME warehouses in New Orleans since the start of August,
helping lift registered inventory to 74,824 tons from a July low of 8,117 tons.
The liquidity boost has calmed CME time-spreads after the extreme backwardations seen in the second
quarter.
It's noticeable that while CME stocks have been rising, those registered with both the LME and the ShFE
have fallen.
However, global exchange inventory is broadly unchanged at an elevated 521,600 tons, up 308,000 tons on
the start of the year.
The last part of the excerpt made the cut because it’s a reminder that despite the reported
growth in copper demand, world supply has kept up well and stand-by inventories have not
been tapped as an aggregate. For more on that, we move to our regular weekly world copper
inventories segment, data as usual from the reliable souls at Chile’s Cochilco:
 Another modest drop in overall world copper inventories last week, with two of the
three official futures systems losing tonnages, one adding. Overall the total is now
515,882 metric tonnes (mt), down 7,925mt on the week.
 The slight question mark hanging over the Shanghai SHFE inventory was removed, as
copper stocks dropped by 5,350mt to close at 163,075mt. It’s still on the high end of
the band for the time of year, but we should now see inventory decrease into the end
of the year.
 The LME also saw draw downs totaling 7,425mt on the week, the global total coming to
276,775mt. Once again it was all about Asia, with Taiwan (-5225mt) and South Korea
(-1525mt) covering the lion’s share of moves.
 The Comex continued with its recent trend, unusual that it may be, with 4,850mt added
to stocks for a Friday close of 76,032mt.
Our dedicated SHFE chart shows 2024 now tracking the pre-Covid years. We’ll see how that
continues as 2024 draw to a close
14

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on just one of our basket stocks:
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): A lot of Oh The Humanity End Of World cries in the metals peanut
gallery over this stock last week, but it’s almost certainly
more heat than light. Three things:
 This is a volatile stock at the best of times, as
this three month chart shows.
 It so happens that the recent peak was last
Friday and the recent trough this Friday, so the
weekly reading is that much more dramatic.
 There was no news and no reason to suppose
weak assay results in the pipeline.
This is the junior world, where volatility for no real
reason is a thing. Readers may recall the recent sharp
drop in Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) to well under the 30c
mark that got this desk wondering whether a financing was about to happen. None did and look
where the stock price is now. BIG.v isn’t high on my list of copper stories to own at the moment
and for my taste, has more to prove with the drillbit before it can justify the hype of this time
last year. By the same token, no need to panic yourself out of the stock on one poor week’s
worth of trading activity and as that chart above suggest, 50c or so may be an opportunity
price or the nimble fliptraders in the audience.
Element 29 (ECU.v): Down a couple of pennies on the
week, but ECU defended its recent very sharp price rise
fairly well and we saw just under 500k shares traded
between Thursday and Friday as buyers came to defend
the new level. At an implied C$47m market cap it’s
neither cheap nor expensive and this is now a straight
shot drill assay speculation on what they get out of the
current Elida program. I don’t own, I’m definitely rooting
for this team.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): Can you look at this
price chart and see the moment when QCCU announced
it was incorporating Cuprum and its Thierry copper
project into the company, re-tooling to become a dual-
asset company and re-vamping its corporate image,
including a change of name to XXIX? No, me neither.

The Producer Basket
After 43 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 44.49% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 55.81 48.42 17.0%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 43.26 86.88 58.4%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 34.44 19.61 8.4%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 26.06 135.62 22.4%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 9.01 24.73 51.4%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.883 5.88 24.62 94.8%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 4.20 6.80 41.4%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.52 17.38 34.0%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.84 10.22 58.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.37 9.22 58.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 44.49%
A cheer and a round of applause for the three stocks that managed to post week-over-week
gains (AEM, FNV, PAAS) under difficult circumstances. It wasn’t the gold price that did the
damage this time either, as in fact the GLD proxy managed to go up by 0.8% on the week,
instead Newmont’s (NEM) earnings report and its reception scuppered this sector of the market.
The seven losers (NEM. GOLD, LUGDF, HL, EGO, DPMLF, WDOFF) were led by the 16.0% drop
in NEM and followed by the hits in Hecla (HL down 7.0%), Eldorado (EGO down 6.7%) and
notably Barrick (GOLD down 6.3%), which has still to report.
Overall we lost a little ground to the GDX benchmark but still have a 10%+ lead. In fact and
allowing for a couple of tenths, we’ve had this 10% lead since mid-August and it’s looking fairly
solid now. Famous last words?
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead) 2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16%
Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to): If it weren’t for its own dose of negative news, this desk would be
banging the table on GOLD as a trade option going into its own 3q24 earnings day, November
7th (two weeks to go and after the US Election…seems an age in the future this weekend).
Despite the costs miss reported by NEM last week (see below) in which the Barrick JV Nevada
Gold Mines (NGM) got special mention, we already know more about the GOLD quarter thanks
to its pre-announcement the week before (8). A quote:
Compared to Q2, Q3 gold cost of sales per ounce is expected to
be 1% to 3% higher, total cash costs per ounce2 is expected to
be 3% to 5% higher and all-in sustaining costs per ounce2 are
expected to be 0% to 2% higher, in part reflecting higher royalties
from the higher gold price received.
That got baked into the share price at the time, so
whatever NEM did last week shouldn’t have reflected on
its occasional partner (at NGM and Pueblo Viejo). That
GOLD dropped on the same day as NEM as seen (right)
16
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60% comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data -20%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72
ikn
gdx control
source: IKN calcs

may turn out to be a coincidence, as the market took in a new slice of bad news from Mali.
We remind readers that on September 30th (9) GOLD announced in the NR “Barrick and Mali
Reach Agreement to Settle Disputes” that it and the government of Mali had “agreed to find a
global resolution” on the ownership rights of its big (and these days very important) Loulo-
Gounkoto mining complex in the country. We noted a couple of editions ago in IKN804 that
things weren’t that simple, as Mali was looking for $500m in some sort of compensation deal.
Then on Thursday, we got this from Reuters (10) and here’s an extended quote:
Mali has accused Barrick Gold of failing to abide by commitments made in a recent agreement, charges the
Canadian miner denied on Thursday, saying it did not accept any claims of wrongdoing.
Barrick, the world’s second-largest gold miner, announced on Sept. 30 it had agreed with the government to
resolve disputes over the Loulo and Gounkoto gold mines, days after Malian authorities briefly detained four
Malian staff working for the company.
But in a joint statement dated Oct. 23, Mali’s economy and mines ministries said Barrick had “not honoured
the commitments to which it subscribed in the agreement.”
Without sharing further details, the ministries said the breaches included those relating to environmental and
corporate social responsibility and foreign exchange rules.
They said there were “serious risks to the group’s continued operations in Mali, one of whose operating
licenses expires at the beginning of 2026.”
“The Malian government has decided to draw all legal consequences arising from the actions taken by
Barrick Gold,” they said.
In response, Barrick denied the allegations and said since Sept. 30 it had been actively engaged with the
government to reach a settlement that would include an increase in the state’s share of economic benefits
from the Loulo-Gounkoto complex.
That was followed by other wire stories adding details, such as this on Friday from Bloomberg
(11) that claimed the military government would refuse to renew the Loulo mine’s permit when
it comes up for renewal in 2026 and had told Barrick exactly that in a letter dated October 18th.
The result is that second leg of selling and more uncertainty added to the misfiring GOLD. As
noted last week, on the raw numbers and for what we expect it to return in Q4 and beyond
with gold where it is, GOLD looks cheap and buyable. But if you do, you’d need to assume the
risk of losing the mine that accounts for 14.5% of its total production in 2024 YTD.
Newmont (NEM): The mining story of the week, unfortunately. You’ve almost certainly read
about the miss already, if not here’s the link (12) to Newmont’s 3q24 financials and cover NR,
and have fun, not just with the low 1.67m oz gold produced the main bone of contention, it’s
costs. At AISC of U$1,611/oz, NEM is now a mile away from the U$1,400/oz it forecast at the
start of the year when closing the fusion with Newcrest. Indeed, that mega-merger was at least
in part predicated and approved by shareholders due to the efficiencies of scale and cost
synergies it would generate. At the time NEM promised U$1,400/oz AISC this desk simply did
not believe them. As this chart tracking quarterly AISC shows, it would have been a real
turnaround to see NEM managing to reduce costs. But the 3q24 number was particularly bad
and seemed to be the straw that broke the camel’s back for several larger insto-sized holders
(NEM being the only PM miner on the S&P500 needs to impress people that only look at
numbers for a living).
NEM: AISC per qtr
17
319 529 819 009 388 149 139 349 879 598 548 709
6101
789 649
0301 7901 0201 3401 9301 5301 0211 6501 6511 9911 1721 5121 6731 2741 6241 5841 9341 2651 1161 5741
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 600
400
200
0
61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$/oz
source: company filings
The 3q24 report included guidance for the current 4q24 and this time, NRM is promising 1.8m
oz gold produced at an AISC of U$1,4675/oz. As we’re half way through the period they might

even have a reasonable idea this time, so if we take those figures as gospel it implies a 2024
average of U$1,521/oz or thereabouts (chart right). We also got preliminary guidance for 2025
from the ConfCall that added insult to injury, as NEM expects to produce around 350k oz less
than in 2024 at an AISC of “around U$100/oz more” than this year. That accounts for the 2025
guesstimate as seen in the chart right. The final bodyblow was the declaration of another 25c
dividend, as despite the mediocre production and higher than expected costs, the rise in the
price of gold means NEM is making plenty of cash.
It beats me why it cannot return more than 25c of the approx 64c/share of free cash flow to its
shareholders, especially when we know gold prices and
revenue are going to improve wholesale. The result is
seen in the chart (right), which pits NEM against some-
time partner Barrick (see above) and the main precious
metals ETF (GDX), also dragged down by the NEM Effect
but not as badly as the main offender.
So yes, NEM deserved some punishment at market last
week for a set of trashy results but the 16% it suffered
was too harsh, too much and ignored the luck NERM is
about to enjoy thanks to the price of gold on the world
market. Too much kicking while down went on last week
and the world’s #1 PM mining stock is now clearly oversold. Here’s why:
NEM: Received price minus AISC, per qtr
18
165 726
398
908 217 887 856 247 637 294 024 345 035 394 494 915 156 587
709
5711
0701
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400 300 200
100
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4 gva
5202
Newmont: Annual average AISC/oz Au
U$/oz
source: company filings, IKN calcs
First up, if we assume its 4q24 forecast is reasonably accurate and then guesstimate an
average received price for gold of U$2,650/oz, NEM is going to clear U$1,175/oz on 1.8m oz of
gold, that’s a lot of money (U$2.115Bn to save you the job) and while a simple metric that’s
not GAAP, it’s a reasonable proxy to cash flow. Than above the gold bar assumes the difference
between AISC and received gold price of U$1,070/oz at U$2,700/oz. It could be more, it could
be less, but our ballpark calc gives us 2025 EBIT-ish margin of U$7.2Bn, or 6.7X current market
cap. That’s by no means expensive for this size of company, again pointing to a share price that
got beaten down too far by too many disgruntled fund managers hitting the exit button at the
same time. I’m the first to say that yes, NEM is mediocrity defined but this is mining, where
management teams have always overestimated themselves and mediocrity is the rule, rather
than the exception. Luck in metals prices is a big factor and gold at U$2,700/oz covers many
429 909 669 5401 2601 1121 4441 1251 0361
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 800 600
400
200
0
7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 tse4202 tse5202
U$/oz Newmont: Quarterly dividend
source: company filings
55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 04.0 04.0 04.0 04.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30 0.20
0.10
0.00
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3 tse42q4
U$
source: company filings

sins, both here and at Barrick (and other large producers, for that matter). As strange as it
might sound, Newmont is almost certainly a buy at these current levels. It sheer size means it’s
going to make an awful lot of money with gold at its current price deck.
The TinyCaps List
After 43 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 56.30% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 252.95 25.30 0.10 53.8%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 86.798 36.89 0.425 214.8%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 44.93 0.42 147.1%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 21.77 0.145 -19.4%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 4.43 0.05 -50.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 96.476 11.58 0.12 60.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 18.18 0.255 96.2%
South Star STS.v 0.750 52.64 31.06 0.59 -21.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 32.75 0.115 27.8%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 21.90 0.185 54.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 56.30%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket adjusted down slightly and it would TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
have taken a bigger drop if it weren’t for the fact 90%
80%
that the only winner of the ten, Latin Metals 70%
(LA.v), managed to gain 20% on the week. Three 60%
50%
other stocks were unchanged (BAY.v, EDG.v, 40%
SURG.v) and that leaves six losers (ARIC.v, 30%
20%
DMX.v, KLDC.v, PA.v, STS.v, VAU.v) and while
10%
most of those didn’t do any damage, the big drop 0%
in Viva Gold (VAU.v down 19.6%) made most of
the difference.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Easily the most interesting news from our basket of minnows this week
came from LME on Monday (13):
Vancouver, B.C. – Latin Metals Inc. (“Latin Metals” or the “Company”) - (TSXV: LMS) (OTCQB:
LMSQF), announces that it has received a key permit to begin exploration activities at the
Esperanza project (“Esperanza” or the “Project”).
LMS and its new JV optioner on the Esperanza project have got the ball rolling at one of the best
copper targets known in the Argentina side of the cordillera. That’s good news and here’s what
LMS CEO Keith Henderson had to say about it:
"Securing this exploration permit is a pivotal moment for the Esperanza project, reaffirming the
strong support from local authorities for advancing exploration in the region. With this permit in
19
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

hand, the project is now positioned to unlock the significant copper-gold potential that Esperanza
offers. Our team’s commitment to responsible exploration, including environmental stewardship
and meaningful stakeholder engagement, has been critical in reaching this milestone. We’re
excited to move forward and deliver value to our shareholders as we define drill targets and
progress the project."
This desk agrees. For the record, exchanged with CEO Henderson on Monday and confirmed
that the terms of the allow mapping, sampling, and geophysical surveys does not cover drilling.
That will be a separate permit and potentially more difficult, as the local opposition to the
project is all about how the location is part of the run-off and directly connected to local water
sources. Therefore I take this as a very positive step forward, but won’t pull the trigger and buy
LMS on Esperanza news until it gets the drill permit in-hand.
The news went down well, as seen in this ten-day chart (right) but cooled off from the Tuesday
high and closed at a reasonable 12c as volume tailed off, perhaps as people realized the permit
is for bootleather-type work, rather than drilling. Be
clear, I am a buyer of LMS shares if they
obtain the full drilling permit (underlined and
bold-typed for a reason) and will not wait for the
core to show or the assays to be published. When
last drilled, the best assay returned 387m of 0.57%
copper and 0.27 g/t gold from surface and the
chances of hitting even better than that are high.
However, I’m not a buyer immediately as the local
community and municipality has shown on many
occasions their intransigent position toward serious
exploration at Esperanza (Spanish for “Hope”,
wouldn’t you know…).
Surge Copper (SURG.v): A drill assay NR from SURG at last , with two holes reported in the
Thursday morning NR (14) entitled, “Surge Copper Intersects 412 metres grading 0.40% CuEq
including 54 metres grading 0.53% CuEq at the Berg Deposit”. Berg is a large low grade
deposit, so we’re used to seeing grades that don’t immediately catch the eye and in this NR, the
first two holes of the 2024 ten hole campaign were fairly typical. Hole 253 was okay, the star
turn was obviously the length returned by hole #254:
If we do the breakdown on the hole, 0.24% of the 0.4% CuEq is covered by copper, 0.12% by
the moly and the remnant 0.06% by the gold and silver kickers (which may or may not be
payable). It’s fair to say Berg is a copper/moly target where in some places, the moly grades
trail off more than in hole 254.
20

Those grades may not be Josemaria or Lunahuasi levels, but that grade makes for profitable
mining in BC Canada (once the capex hurdle is covered, of course). Even if we mark down the
Mo, Ag and Au to zero and then assume 90% copper recoveries, it’s 4.75lb of payable copper
per tonne and if you can move and process the
rock for CAD$13/tonne, there’s your 50% gross
margin. Maybe not mind-blowing, but feasible on
paper in a region that enjoys some of the lowest
power costs in the mining world. The key is to
define as large a resource tonnage as possible to
allow for the economies of scale that get low
grade mines over the capex hurdle. SURG sold off
on the news, which I though slightly unjust at the
time. It recovered a little but, at 11.5c, those
looking for the clichéd “leverage to copper” at a
real bargain price may want to consider SURG
before the next eight assays are announced.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: Free trade protests
Last week, the Ecuador government of Daniel Noboa began the fourth negotiations with Canada
on a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries in Quito, with the process now expected
to wrap up with a fifth round in December before a final agreement is reached. Now in its final
stages, the agreement covers many aspects of business and trade but obviously, this is an
important one for the mining industry as Canada is the #1 foreign presence in Ecuador’s (roll
out the cliché) nascent mining sector. It’s also causing alarm bells to ring in the anti-mining
movements inside Ecuador, as this report (15) explains:
“More than 80 social organizations in Ecuador have released a joint communiqué to reject the
Free Trade Agreement that the Andean country is now negotiating with Canada, as trhey believe
the agreement is looking to boost mining projects funded by Canadian capital that could harm the
environment and go against human and environmental rights, as well as national sovereignty.”
This link (16) takes you to the joint statement, here’s an excerpt translated:
"This agreement will intensify mining extraction, which will aggravate the social conflict that
already exists for the use and contamination of water, damage to agricultural production, the
processes of removal of communities where mining projects exist funded by Canadian capital
such as:
It then gives this list:
21

So now you know. It also outlines alleged human rights violations by the companies and the
way in which the government has used the projects as reasons to crack down on locals using
violence and jail time.
The backdrop to these negotiations include the upcoming February 2025 Presidential election
(see IKN 801, dated September 22nd and the note “Ecuador: First call on the 2025 Presidential
election” which covers the basics, also the now infamous power blackouts in Ecuador that are
eating into public patience with Noboa and his government. They were raised from eight to 14
hours per day last week as the drought conditions that have reduced Ecuador’s hydroelectric
dams to remedial output continue. Noboa is traveling to Colombia this week to meet with
President Petro for emergency talks to try and reach a deal to purchase electricity supply from
the neighbouring country. Good optics for Petro during COP16 week.
Venezuela and Brazil and BRICS
Plenty of coverage of the BRICS summit last week, with the economic group accepting nine
countries as new “associates” (not full members yet). However, one country not accepted was
Venezuela, even though its President Nicolas Maduro and foreign minister Delcy Rodriguez flew
out to the meeting in order to press its case (in Maduro’s own words, they were “pushing very
hard to join” but to no avail). The interesting angle is why Venezuela was refused, as the block
wasn’t BRICS big dogs Russia or China (both sympathetic to Maduro’s cause at the event).
Instead it was Lula da Silva’s Brazil, who refuses to recognize Maduro’s government until the
now infamous vote receipts from this year’s Venezuelan election appear. Lula understands the
upcoming problems Venezuela will cause in 2025 when Maduro officially begins his next
mandate on January 10th and wants nothing to do with it. The alliance against Venezuela in
South America is hardening.
Argentina: Milei’s approval ratings
This week, President Javier Milei of Argentina took to the airwaves to claim, in his usual
bombastic way, that he had “lost one iota of support” from the people of Argentina and they
continue to support the deep reforms his is enacting. But data says otherwise, according to the
latest polling out of the country which in particular, sees
his support in the Buenos Aires region (both city and
province) under 40% and nationwide, all provincial
governors polling better numbers than the President.
This visual from this report on the poll (17) is a good
snapshot of the pain (I’ve added a little English to the
screenshot), backed by the latest official economic
reading out last week that puts GDP down by 3.5% for
August 2024
However, Milei can still count on the resilience of most
of his supporters through this down period, no small
thing. 84% of people who said they voted for him in the
2023 Presidential election say they don’t regret their
choice, indicating that the Argentine populace is still willing to go through the current pain for
longer-term gain.
Market Watching
Argenta Silver (AGAG.v): A heavy promo as from this week
We’re due an IPO tomorrow Monday as Argenta Silver (AGAG.v), a new Frank Giustra vehicle,
completes its corporate re-tooling and opens for trading on the TSXV. Expect this company to
be marketed hard and trade far above the 15c price at which the recent funding transaction
raised money, not least because Giustra & Co have hired the Ameduri clan to promote AGAG,v
to a wide audience (in exchange for $500,000).
22

The company’s centerpiece is the El Quevar project in Salta, North Argentina, which has been
picked over and explored since the 1970s and was subject to a more systematic exploration
program by its previous owners, Golden Minerals, in the 2010s. That included an extensive drill
program that eventually led to a 43-101 compliant technical report in 2018 which identified the
main target on the El Quevar property, the Yaxtché deposit, with an indicated resource of 2.9m
tonnes grading an average of 482 g/t silver containing 45.3m oz silver, plus an inferred
resource of 0.3m tonnes grading 417 g/t silver for another 4.1m oz silver.
That’s obviously a high grading deposit and you can be sure the upcoming promo will push that
angle hard. However, the mineralization has serious continuity problems (e.g. even a pilot
tunnel dug into the mineralization had difficultly drifting down the vein and then the mineral is
refractory and even in a best case, would require capex intensive autoclave (POX) treatment to
free the metal from the rock at an adequate percentage.
Indeed for context on the issues El Quevar faces we can consider two facts, firstly that Barrick
(GOLD) took up an option on the property and explored it for three seasons, before handing it
back to Golden Minerals early this year. Secondly, despite containing that much silver and on a
property with a large area as yet unexplored, Golden Minerals was happy to accept just $3.5m
for El Quevar from AGAG.
When the promo starts tomorrow, expect plenty of interest in the stock. I make no predictions
on the share price movements in the near-term, but at some point AGAG will be an obvious
short target. One to watch and for those of you nimble enough, to potentially trading during its
first flush movement higher.
Conclusion
IKN806 is done, we end with bullet points:
 For a guy who insists that we should HODL, I’m making plenty of sales all of a sudden.
But I made my excuses for selling BCM and FCGV last week and this time around,
American Eagle (AE.v) is leaving for the best reason of all; objective achieved, buy low
sell high, etc. The counter to those sales are the purchase of LBC.v last week (that’s
started well) and the plan to add the thinly trading Orecap (OCI.v). However, be clear
that these trades are in the margin, the real investments are not going anywhere and
that group now includes SilverCrest and Eldorado, both ready to run on quarterly
results.
 Copper is beginning to concern me, so it does give me another reason to lighten
exposure for a couple of weeks via the AE.v sale.
 The shadow of the US election is now looming large. I’m expecting the next two weeks
to be weird and while my call on Trump winning remains unchanged, I’m also clear that
literally anything could happen. Flexible mind will be key and while it may be fun to
hypothesize on how to trade the event, my reality will be to hold through with gritted
teeth.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera
Alamos (MAI.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark.
23

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/schedule-for-week-of-october-27-2024.html
(2) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-announces-financing-package-to-fund-the-fenix-gold-project
(3) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-announces-pricing-and-upsize-to-previously-announced-overnight-marketed-public-
offering
(4) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-extends-high-grade-near-surface-mineralization-with-multiple-1-
copper-equivalent-intercepts-confirms-continuity/
(5) https://americaneaglegold.ca/site/assets/files/3781/american_eagle_investor_presentation_2024_10_25.pdf
(6) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-set-for-weekly-decline-on-china-stimulus-disappointment/
(7) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-copper-imports-accelerate-wake-cme-squeeze-andy-home-2024-
10-24/
(8) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2024/barrick-reports-q3-preliminary-production-results-with-
continued-improvement-at-pueblo-viejo/default.aspx
(9) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2024/barrick-and-mali-reach-agreement-to-settle-
disputes/default.aspx
(10) https://www.mining.com/web/mali-accuses-barrick-gold-of-breaching-agreement-miner-denies-claims/
(11) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-25/mali-threatens-to-let-barrick-mine-permit-lapse-over-dispute?
(12) https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2024/Newmont-Reports-Third-Quarter-2024-
Results/default.aspx
(13) https://latin-metals.com/news-releases/latin-metals-secures-key-permit-to-advance-exploration-at-esperanza-
copper-gold-project-san-juan-province-argentina/
(14) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-intersects-412-metres-grading-0.40-cueq-including-54-
metres-grading-0.53-cueq-at-the-berg-deposit/
(15) https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2024/10/22/organizaciones-de-ecuador-rechazan-acuerdo-comercial-
con-canada-por-favorecer-a-la-mineria/
(16) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/economia/acuerdo-comerial-negociaciones-canada-ecuador-rechazo-
organzaciones-mineria-2024-nota/
(17) https://grupolaprovincia.com/contenido/577186/crisis-en-la-gestion-de-milei-los-numeros-no-mienten
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
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Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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