IKN #802Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 802, September 29th 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, US Jobs and Chinese stimuli.
Fundamental Analysis: Deferring on Ascot Resources (AOT.to).
Stocks to Follow: Pan Global (PGZ.v), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Red Pine Exploration
(RPX.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to), Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Quarter-end snapshot, NGEX Resources (NGEX.to), Element
29 (ECU.v), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Quarter-end snapshot, Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF),
Lundin Gold (LUGDF) (LUG.to), Franco-Nevada (FNV).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, District Metals (DMX.v), Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v), Latin
Metals (LMS.v).
Regional Politics: Mexico gets a new President, Argentina: First Quantum commits to Taca
Taca, Argentina: The Milei honeymoon is ending, Colombia: COP 16 on the horizon, Bolivia: A
truce of sorts, Peru: More on illegal mining.
Market Watching: Vizsla Silver (VZLA.v) (VZLA): Trouble in Copala, New Found Gold (NFG.v)
(NFGC) ignores its shorts.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 No new purchases, no sales, no change in our “be very long and stay that way” position
toward this perfect storm of a market for mining companies, despite seeing the PM
stocks lag somewhat last week.
 It is, however, the end of week 39 (and the end of the third quarter, bar one day) so
we run our regular quarter-end snapshots on the Copper Basket and Producer baskets
to see which stocks have been hot and which not.
 Also in The Copper Basket, we note the effect of China’s stimulus moves on the market
and how it’s likely to play out going forward (spoiler Alert: Bullish). And I’m still not a
fan of Arizona Sonoran, no matter how much money it raises at market. Sorry, it’s the
way it is (and I’ve been right so far).
 Regional Politics touches several bases, keeps Mexico stories to a minimum (for once)
and probably the main event is an update on the situation in Argentina. The outside
world may love Milei, but we’re now seeing a clear end to his honeymoon period inside
the country.
 To make up for the lack of a main fundies note, we add extra charts and coverage to
the Stocks to Follow section. Overall a reasonable week for the portfolio, with the only
painful drop from Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) so we check the numbers and make the
case for an upcoming financing in that stock.
1

US Jobs and Chinese stimuli
Another brief intro this edition, as there’s nothing much to add to the last couple of weeks
aside the way that metals bullishness manifested itself more in the copper and base metals
world rather than that through gold. The catalyst for all that fun came from China and its
decision to go Keynesian on its economy, so as we managed to mention the possibility it would
do just that in last week’s Copper Basket, this week’s follow-up thoughts are down there as
well. The only other thing is to reiterate the last lines of last week’s intro…
“Own gold and make sure you know what it’s up to, but the miners are the trade in
this environment. HODL, ladies and gents, there’s serious money to be made.”
…in light of what was essentially a flat week for the PM stocks. On tuning into social media
around the Friday close, there was plenty of “not fair” type grumbling among the mining market
participants and commentariat as Friday saw the complex drop and essentially wipe out gains
accrued over the week. For some reason people still think markets are frictionless, or that
mining stocks don’t do weird things, or both. The reason I wrote that “HODL” line wasn’t just to
encourage you not to sell and take profits, but also hold and take the down dips of the
rollercoaster as well.
That’s all for today intro, juts one note about the main macro event in the days ahead as on
Friday, we get the US BLS Employment Report for September and according to Calculated Risk
(1), “The consensus is for 145,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be
unchanged at 4.2%.” So now you know and if either of those numbers come in weaker with
just five weeks to go before the US election and a Fed looking for excuses to hit the accelerator
pedal on rate cuts we may see gold breach U$2,700/oz after all. That would be a thing.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Deferring on Ascot Resources (AOT.to)
The idea this weekend was to run something akin to a high-level think piece on Ascot
Resources (AOT.to) a distressed company that may offer an opportunity for those willing to put
some risk capital to work. However, as the idea turned into a draft, around mid-weekend, I
realized that do this story and its trade potential justice, a reasonably straightforward corporate
overview and financial number crunch wasn’t enough. At that point I stopped scanning the
2019 Feasibility Study, started reading it and the rabbit hole got deep.
Therefore I’m going to do something that’s rare, but not unheard of, for The IKN Weekly and
deferring on the main fundies section this weekend. I’ll also stress that while an interesting
potential trade on a distressed company that has a good chance of turning itself around, I’m
still undecided on whether AOT.to is a buy or not (I’d tell you otherwise), so please don’t read
this and think “Huh, he’s going to reco the stock next weekend for sure.” In fact I might, but
for one thing my opinion shouldn’t move the market on this (or any other) stock and for
another, I simply do not know whether I will at this point, Sunday afternoon September 29th.
What I will say is that the NR out September 19th (2)…
Vancouver, B.C., September 19, 2024 - Ascot Resources Ltd. (TSX: AOT; OTCQX: AOTVF) (“Ascot” or the
“Company”) today announced that Sprott Private Resource Streaming and Royalty (B) Corp., Nebari Gold
Fund 1, LP, Nebari Natural Resources Credit Fund II, LP and Nebari Collateral Agent LLC (collectively the
“Secured Creditors”) have agreed to extend the waiver and forbearance agreements previously granted by
the Secured Creditors relating to certain additional pre-existing defaults and potential future defaults under
the purchase and sale agreements dated as of January 19, 2023 (the “Purchase and Sale Agreements”), the
credit agreement dated as of June 16, 2023, as amended by a first amending agreement dated as of
February 20, 2024 (the “Convertible Credit Agreement”) and the cost overrun credit agreement dated as of
February 20, 2024 (and together with the Purchase and Sale Agreements and the Convertible Credit
Agreements, collectively the “Agreements”) until October 31, 2024.
Following this extension, the Company will continue discussions with its Secured Creditors regarding its
previously disclosed intention for mine development and the future operations of the Company.
2

…makes it highly likely AOT isn’t going to be pulled into Ch11/receivership and there’s a
solution in the offing. Whether that translates to a buying opportunity for retail at this stage is
the question I need to answer for myself and to do that correctly, I need to better understand
its mine asset. Therefore, I’m cutting myself some slack this weekend, expect a lot more on this
stock and story next weekend.
Stocks to Follow
Despite the strong move in metals last week, with copper (see Copper Basket) enjoying the
bounce from the Chinese stimulus news and gold doing its Middle East safe haven act (GLD up
1.16%), PM stocks ended slightly lower so overall I’m okay with the way the Stocks to Follow
portfolio performed. For sure there were eight losers (AE.v, RPX.v, NCAU.v, BCM.v, PGZ.v,
OCI.v, FTZ.v, MENE.v) and two of those were big drops, namely the Watch List candidate
Fitzroy (FTZ.v down 14.6% and that’s good to see) and Bear Creek (BCM.v down 13.8% and
that’s not so good). There were also four UNCH stocks (MAI.v, FCGV.v, MIRL.cse, PGDC.v) from
the list of twenty, but most of the eight winners (RIO.v, SILV, EGO, ARG.to, MARI.to, ALDE.v,
IPT.v, PAU.cse) were from the top half of the draw where I have more cash weighting and
there were also a couple of double figure percentage winners in the shape of Provenance
(PAU.cse up 19.0%) on the Watch List (i.e. running without my cash on board) and IMPACT
Silver (IPT.v up 11.1%, though a minor trade). Overall, a positive week for the virtual back
pocket, though not quite as impressive as the last two weeks.
There are 20 open positions on our Stocks to Follow, that’s the max under normal
circumstances. Twelve stocks are in the green, eight are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.315 50.0% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.64 -20.0% Momentum now building
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.67 40.1% Quality Ag/Au, U$12.96 tgt
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$17.60 6.3% new trade, finally long
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.80 16.9% return, (re)starter position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$3.90 27.9% Quality Cu developer
American Eagle AE.v SPEC BUY C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.52 20.9% new Cu trade, near-term flip
Red Pine Expl RPX.v BUY C$0.105 8-Sep-24 C$0.12 14.3% New sm position, will build
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.325 58.5% Cheap Au in West Africa
Bear Creek Min BCM.v BUY C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.345 -1.4% Spec Ag(& Au) trade, 2 buys
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.12 -36.8% Cu jr, may add post financing
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.055 -8.3% Exposed to several good jrs
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v hold C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.58 -7.9% under offer, will hold thru
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$1.11 54.2% into FY24 news season now
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.25 -16.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Fitzroy Min FTZ.v WATCH C$0.17 4-Aug-24 C$0.175 2.9% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.035 75.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.125 47.1% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.125 -74.0% LT bet, adding slowly
3

CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
Contango Ore CTGO Sep'24 U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.23 8.2% Port rebalance sale
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Pan Global (PGZ.v): Further to last week’s write-up and musing on this laggard, PGZ did
indeed report its Q2 last week (on Friday, took its sweet time) and the numbers were largely as
expected. Treasury at C$1.8m and change was 300k lighter than our model, but on the other
hand accounts payable at under $500k were 100k less than our guesstimate and overall,
getting the overall balance sheet to within 200k is as near as dammit is to swearing. Therefore,
no need to repeat all the charts with the small changes, instead a couple of balance sheet
charts and a couple from the P+L and we’re done.
Working capital (below left) as at July 31st 2024 stood at C$1.608m and at our expected burn
rate, that means PGZ is running on fumes in the current quarter, confirming our best
guesstimate of an upcoming financing. We’re guessing at a $6m raising and a share count
(below right) at 293m.
PGZ.v: Shares Out
As for burn, our supposition that PGZ has throttled back in 2024 was correct. Admin expenses
(below left) at C$1.85m are almost C$1.2m lower than the same quarter of 2023. Inside that
we have a breakdown of exploration and evaluation expenses (below left) and at least the
spend on drilling went up a little, but overall in 2024 to date PGZ has spent nearly C$1m less
compared to the same period of 2023.
4
34.351 9.651
80.981 87.391 1.302 15.502 51.212 51.212 51.212 4.212 4.212
57.242 57.242 57.242 57.242 57.242 392 392
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4 tse52q1
source: company filings
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20 PGZ.v: Working Capital per qtr
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
source company filings
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PGZ.v: Admin expenses
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
C$m other exp PGZ: exploration and evaluation expenses, per qtr
share payments 2.50
IR 2.25
mgmt fee 2.00
office/rent 1.75
Exp&Eval 1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
C$m
other
tech services
Drilling
source: company filings, IKN calcs

Our basic call from last week “It’s going to finance soon and at that point it may be a buy”, is
reiterated and confirmed.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): When you’re a 10c stock, I think you’re allowed to go the
“Visible Gold!” route with your news releases and that’s what we got from PAU last week, when
it reported on the visual results from the first 207m of its first hole in the current program, set
to go to 300m. Using the market maxim of “good
news travels fast”, the fact that PAU was up for telling
us about an unfinished hole is as good sign and
here’s an excerpt:
At the time of this update, the hole was at a depth of 207
m in highly altered and mineralized granodiorite with
visible gold located at multiple horizons (30m, 108m, and
158m).
Logging and core processing is ongoing and additional
results will be released once available.
The visual included in the NR (right) included “yellow
blob marks the VG” on the unfinished hole, but we
also note that PAU went looking for the low-hanging
fruit this time as this hole is designed to test the area
under 2023 holes that found mineralization, this
wasn’t a step-out hole. But to its credit, PAU has
managed to gain some market eyeballs and traction
for this NR and the market move to 12.5c may just be
the start now that people are watching.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): We remind readers that the RPX financing is set to close this
coming week and when it does, we’ll find out if there’s any pent-up momentum that might drive
this stock back to the 18c and 20c levels we saw before the Quentin Hennigh assay altering
FUBAR and subsequent price dump early in the year. To reiterate, the reason I’m long this
stock is that with the advent of the financing, RPX has ticked all the necessary boxes that
should allow new CEO Michaud to move ahead on his plan to “unlock the value” (as the cliché
goes) of Wawa. We like the new brains trust and its backers, every reason to see this exploreco
move to a more reasonable comparative market cap.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): It’s taking longer than expected, but RIO.v has told us that October should
see the Chilean red tape fully addressed and the permits that allow construction of Fenix duly
awarded. Once that piece is in place, expect the announcement of the financing package and at
that point, the market may begin to re-rate this stock.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): OCI reported its Q3 on Friday and the numbers contained no shocks, so
a quick update and we’ll move on. The only number I really cared about was cash treasury,
(below left), which was down C$0.48m to C$1.242m as at and July and its reporting date. The
working capital chart (below right) is substantially better off, that’s due to its equity holdings in
companies such as American Eagle (AE.v), Awalé (ARIC.v) etc but we assume OCI isn’t about to
sell any of those and so the cash number shows its corporate liquidity. Every reason to expect
OCI will get to the end of 2024 and into 2025 before doing anything about its cash position and
when it does, it will have plenty of options to choose from, with only one of those a dilutive
raising (unlikely).
ORX.v: Working Capital per qtr
5
767.0- 697.0- 22.1 31.1 688.5 556.5 535.5 595.7 961.8 354.7 218.6 841.6 403.6 160.6 693.5 159.6 773.2 35.7
139.51 88.51
20
18
16
14
12
10
8 6 4
2
0
-2
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source company filings/IKN ests
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ORX.v: Cash treasury per qtr
333.0 180.0 264.1 183.1 353.6 832.5 139.3 211.6 490.6 865.5 229.5 184.5 335.5 221.4 338.3 668.2 41.1 979.0 227.1 242.1
8
7
6
5
4
3 2
1
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
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Overall assets and liabilities are unchanged from Q2 and with the share count at 247m and
change since late 2021, both working capital/share and book value/share stands at 6.4c.
ORX.v: Assets, per qtr 22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
That’s reasonably close to our running “liquid-ish assets per share” table, now that we’ve
adjusted the cash to an IKN estimated C$1.1m. Include our best gruess for Cuprum and OCI
has a “fair value” of 6.8c.
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.520 6.08 2.5
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.220 0.02 0.0
ARIC.v 8.33 0.43 3.58 1.4
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.23 0.96 0.4
QCCU.v 5.06 0.13 0.66 0.3
MIS.cse 24.71 0.035 0.86 0.3
Curprum privco 29.50 0.12 3.54 1.4
subtotal 15.70 6.3
Est.cash 1.10 0.4
Total 16.80 6.8
At 247.714 S/O
We await market moving news from its two main positions of AE and ARIC, be those market
moves up or down. Holding this risk-adjusted way of playing the Ore Group.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): For a moment on Thursday, MAI looked as though it was about to
make the next leg up in its recovery run but it did the same as most other sector stocks on
Friday and fell back, ending the week UNCH. The improved traded volume is a good sign and
while we shouldn’t hold our breath next week for any permitting news (the Sheinbaum
investiture will run its ceremonial course), there’s a new air around MAI and with AMLO in the
rear view mirror, we’re expecting better things. Also, please note that since IKN798 and its
main fundies report “Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 2q24 financials: Better times ahead”, the stock is
up 28.6%. Not a massive move, but it’s a decent start and all still during the AMLO era.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): A great week, with
ARG doing sterling work and holding on to all its gains
on that tough Friday. If we assume the 4c special
dividend is repeated annually and the quarterly dividend
remains at 3c, that puts the current yield at 8.9% and
that’s a strong number, allowing further equity price
upside on a fundamental basis. We should also expect
ARG to renew its commitment to buy back shares now
that copper is trading consistently above the U$4.00/lb
line
6
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
$m fixed ORX.v: Liabilities, per qtr other current 5
cash 4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings/IKN ests
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 42q3
source: company filings/est
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LT liabs
current liabs

Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): The thin-to-modest volume rally in BCM continued in the first
three days of last week, then suddenly the hammer came down (chart below).
That’s what can happen to thin-based rallies, no
matter the underlying reason and even if there’s no
substantive cause, it only take one medium-sized
holder that’s had enough of owning a dog miner to
hit the sell button and 43c becomes 35c in very
short order. However, we should also entertain the
potential that BCM is about to run a financing and
word has got out. First up, BCM has always been a
bit of a leaky boat when it comes to corporate
information and any raising would need the heads-
up agreement of the people inside Sandstorm as
well, another notable “information source” for Howe
St’s glitterati. If something is announced this coming
week, the timing would also coincide with when lawyers’ desks would have got wind of any deal
and the less said about the collective morality of that lot, the better.
Secondly, we know BCM fully tapped its credit line with Sandstorm (SAND) as per the
agreement, taking the last $10m tranche in debt financing on board during August. However,
we also know Mercedes needs plenty of reparative surgery and the state of its balance sheet
isn’t great.
BCM.v: Current Assets
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
For sure, not as bad as the deep negative that its working cap suggests at first sight (we’ve
been over that on several occasions and
explained why most of that is effectively a
long-term liability), but cash is tight and we
still don’t have any firm guidance on
production for Q3 and Q4, let alone costs. In
the last update we made a
reasonable/conservative guesstimate on what
we could expect and even with the higher gold
prices, it’s still a modest operating loss for the
current month. So with the hike in gold prices
and the seasonal “financing window” open, it
makes sense if BCM goes to market and raises
some working capital at this point.
We’ll see what arises, but there’s good reason to expect a financing deal, perhaps around 35c.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-nine weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 6.94% to level stakes:
7
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 tse42q3
U$m BCM.v: Working Capital per qtr
other current
cash
source: company filings
5.22 9.71 7.43- 5.34- 2.15- 0.06- 5.75-
1.66- 7.98- 2.88-
8.29-
40
20
0 -20
-40
-60
-80
-100
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 tse42q3
U$m
source company filings
BCM: Mercedes operations, per qtr
196.3
619.0
840.3-
328.7-
25.0-
676.9-
62.1-
598.5-
623.3-
944.6-
957.6-
256.11-
419.0-
767.4-
933.3
694.1-
426.2-
181.7-
5.1
3-
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 tse42q3
U$m
gross profit
Op earnings
source: company filings, IKN ests

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 2079.35 11.13 55.4%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 589.07 3.64 -11.9%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 363.13 3.90 13.7%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.519 249.14 8.44 -28.5%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 133.265 207.89 1.56 -10.9%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 188.50 1.11 24.7%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 174.01 0.85 34.9%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 145.53 0.63 -54.3%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 85.29 0.36 -4.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 60.71 0.52 100.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 119.31 30.42 0.255 41.7%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 28.13 0.44 -24.1%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 22.58 0.13 8.3%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 22.28 0.36 -41.0%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 9.30 0.045 -35.7%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 6.94%
The recovery continues as the Copper Basket
adds another 3.3% and moves a little further
away from that nasty moment, just four weeks
ago, when it went negative for the year. Eleven of
the 15 component stocks were winners on the
week so we’re not listing them all, instead let’s tip
our hats to the double figure percentage winners
in C3 Metals (CCCM.v up 18.0%), NGEx Resources
(NGEX.to up 12.3%) and Oroco Resource Corp
(OCO.v up 10.8%), with all the other eight more
modest improvements. Two stocks remained
unchanged (ECU.v, COR.v) and just two losers to
register (ASCU.to, AE.v).
Before getting to the week in copper, let’s take our quarter-end snapshot of our fifteen
component stocks. Yes, I know we have one more trading day to complete for the quarter but
it’s also the end of week 39 and that’s good enough for me. Here’s the updated chart:
The 2024 Copper Basket after 39 weeks
8
%0.001
%4.55
%7.14 %9.43 %7.42 %7.31 %3.8 %0.4- %9.01- %9.11- %1.42- %5.82- %7.53- %0.14- %3.45-
175%
150%
125%
100%
75% 50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
-75%
v.EA ot.XEGN v.UCE ot.YDF v.EDLA ot.IRAM v.UCCQ v.OCO ot.UCSA ot.SLS v.KDK v.AL v.ROC v.MCCC v.GIB
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
13 wks
26 wks
39 wks
source: TSX, IKN calcs
American Eagle (AE.v) is still our #1 performer on the list, but it’s been losing ground ever since
that stellar Q1 and this weekend stands as an exact double 2024 YTD. As for the best Q3, no
doubts about that as NGEx Resources (NGEX.to) gave us another dose of Lundin Magic and
moved up 32% in Q3 to stand as clear second. More on that stock below. Element 29 (ECU.v)
and its thin volume in third spot hasn’t really been tradable all year (yet), so the last cheer goes
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs

to Faraday (FDY.to), which improved slightly and has built a platform at the 80c line. Meanwhile
at the shameful end of the table, nothing much has changed and until Hercules (BIG.v) gives us
its next set of drill results, it will have to stay where it’s been since the very first week of the
year.
We move to what copper-the-metal did and there’s no mistaking the week’s main price driver,
neither in timing or size. After mentioning the potential for a China stimulus package in last
week’s edition, first by quoting Nitesh Shah of WisdomTree (who nailed the call, kudos there)
and then agreeing with his take…
"China's central bank has largely held off doing broad-based stimulus because of
rate differentials, but now that obstacle has been removed, it can start
stimulating," said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.
The speculation about China’s own stimulus has been running for months,
this move now allows the country the monetary wriggle room to do just
that…”
…it took less than 48 hours for the dream to become reality and the result is easy to spot in the
price chart. Copper wasn’t the only hard commodity to run that way, but it was one of them
and all of a sudden that “up 10% from the lows” we mentioned last weekend heading toward
the 20% level and copper is once again attracting bullish noises from bizmedia channels and
the generalist side of the market. Mentioning it last week for the first time instead of this
weekend makes me look way smarter than I am, but either way copper had a terrific week and
the arrow in this chart marks the spot:
Here’s how the metals bizwires explained it all to us (4):
"Beijing lowered its interest rates and injected liquidity into banks this week, and potentially issued
special sovereign bonds worth more than $280 billion to boost its economic growth, while more
fiscal measures are expected to be announced soon."
We didn't have to wait long for the extra measures, as China then reduced the reserve
requirement ratio for banks, a move that allows more liquidity to enter the economy. However,
the same report also included this...
"LME copper surpasses the $10,000 resistance level because of the trading momentum triggered
by news of the Chinese stimulus, but the sustainability of the price rally depends on whether the
high trading volume could persist from now, a trader said.
...which is as Captain Obvious as insight (or what passes for it) can get. And in fact that
"trading volume" is about to drop, no matter what our trader friends thinks or what happens to
the price of a tonne of copper, because China is about to enter its Golden Week holiday when
the country basically shuts down and people go visit relatives on the other side of the country
and get asked why they haven't got married yet. So whoever the anonymous trader is that
gave the Reuters journo that pearl of wisdom, I want their job. Final note for the record,
U$10,000/tonne is U$4.53 and change per pound in old money.
9

China’s Keynesian move is all about stabilizing an economy showing signals of weak consumer
demand. As noted last weekend, the Fed’s move to start cutting rates gave it the wriggle room
required without tanking its currency and here we are today, with a macro background that
couldn’t be better for copper. This desk chooses to expose to the metal via juniors and
explorecos, other people are probably smarter and do so via the medium and large-scale
producers. But whatever your poison, the main message of “Be Long Copper” is the one to take
from this publication. The much vaunted supply deficit may have been put off until 2025, but
the trajectory of both supply and demand for copper is clear and we’re about to enter a period
in which the only way the metal gets distributed to end users is the good old mechanism of
Highest Bidder.
Screed over, time to do inventory work and I’m going to call September as done, so here are
the long-term tracking charts:
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
10
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME source: Cochilco
We’ve tracked the drop in SHFE stocks on a weekly basis, so no surprise in seeing the column
on the far right jagging down significantly and the percentage held in each exchange continues
to swing back to the Big Dog of the three. Even after all these years and despite its structural
problems, the LME is still the place to go for price discovery of metals and copper is no
exception. However, perhaps the most interesting news is buried at the bottom of the chart….
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
…so if we separate out the Comex inventory levels and zoom in on the last four years, we see
how the historic lows registered this summer have suddenly turned 180°. Perhaps this is simply
Trafi not wanting to get caught short on physical deliveries in the same way as March/April this
year, but suddenly we’re seeing copper stocks build at the Comex and from nowhere, they’re
back at 2022 levels. Before we move on please note that next week in London UK is LME Week
(5), one of the two big meeting occasions for the Base Metals world on the calendar year.
Expect plenty of news and view about copper to hit the wires in the days aheasd.
Comex copper stocks, 2021 to date
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
12
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes
mt Cu
source: Comex
With the monthly numbers done, we now move to our regular look at the weekly movement in
world copper inventories:

 The aggregate of copper inventories held by the three world futures markets systems
took another leg down last week, dropping by a total of 7,526 metric tonnes (mt) to
close under the 500kmt level for the first time in a long time, the exact number
497,931mt.
 The big chunks leaving the SHFE continued unabated in the last trading week before
China closes down for its Golden Week holiday. Stocks dropped by a hefty 24,530mt to
close at 140,408mt and that number should remain there or thereabouts for the next
couple of weeks.
 Same as last week at the LME, with another small overall drop in held copper tonnages
of 825mt to close the week at 302,525mt. However, inside that was 1,000 tonnes
added into Europe warehouses and 1,825mt leaving its Asia warehouses. The trend is
set, Asia is gobbling up as much copper as it can.
 However, last week’s big surprise came at the Comex, which added a startling
17,829mt to its stocks to close at 54,998mt, the biggest holding it’s had since 2021. Its
stocks have moved very quickly from the record lows of just three months ago to new
multi-year highs and, to put it bluntly, something weird is going on.
Just one of our SHFE dedicated inventory charts this week, showing the continued dive back
into normality. Stocks are now comparable at this time of year to the levels seen in 2019 and
The Covid Year, still a ways to go for the late-year levels we’ve seen since then. However and
in general terms, normality has been resumed.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on a selection of our basket stocks.
NGEx Resources (NGEX.to): No doubt about the week’s biggest winner on our list, as NGEX
responded to the news that the company was embarking on an aggressive drill campaign at its
Lunahuasi target (6). The 20,000m program kicks off this month, will use six rigs and in the
middle of the long NR these three bullet points explain the plan:
 Long-range exploration holes (+300m spacing) are big step-outs that will test for significant extensions of
mineralization to the north, south, and west and include holes that will explore for the central part of the
Lunahuasi system.
 Mid-range step out holes (50-300m spacing) will explore extensions of the mineralized zone in all
directions.
 Short-range infill holes (30-50m spacing) will test the short-range variability of mineralized structures and
high-grade zones and confirm the main structural orientations and ultimately contribute towards developing
a future mineral resource estimate for Lunahuasi.
In fact there’s nothing particularly surprising or groundbreaking about this Phase 3 program, so
the share price reaction is more about the market reacting to a winning group getting publicly
aggressive with its pipeline project. And who am I to judge? Success breeds success after all
and as noted above in the quarter-end snapshot, NGEX put in a great performance in Q3 on the
back of the BHP/Lundin/Filo/Josemaria news and deal.

Finally, please recall that I am the one in the wrong here. I’m the one who added NGEX to the
list this year by on sufferance and by default, as I felt it was silly not to have “A Lundin Play” in
a representative basket. I’m the one that’s been snippy about its share price appreciation and
ready to jump on any price reversal it’s shown this year as evidence that NGEX is priced to
perfection. I’m the one who owns (for example) Marimaca and not this stock “because
fundamentals”. In many way, NGEX’s price action in 2024 reminds me of the way McEwen
Mining (MUX) used to trade before it hit its own problems, highly valued on a relative market
cap basis but popular among generalists looking for a high-profile company in a metals sector.
The fact I don’t own NGEX probably points to a personal bias and weakness.
Element 29 (ECU.v): Further to the last two weeks of coverage, particularly that of IKN800
that did the job of outlining the opportunity at ECU.v
currently, we finally got the expected news release on
Tuesday 24th (7):
Vancouver, British Columbia — September 24, 2024 – Element 29
Resources Inc. (TSXV: ECU) (OTCQB: EMTRF) (BVL: ECU)
(“Element 29” or the “Company”) is pleased the announce the
commencement of drilling activites at its Elida Porphyry Copper
(“Cu”) – Molybdenum (“Mo”) – Silver (“Ag”) Deposit (“Elida”) in
central Perú. The proposed program consists of up to 4,000 metres
(“m”) of diamond drilling (Figure 1) and is expected to continue until
early December 2024.
The NR also came with a good map of the projected drill
holes, similar to the one we ran a week or two ago (ripped
from its YouTube video). This one (right) is a clearer look and
makes it more obvious what ECU is aiming for in this 4,000m
program; adding serious tonnage at depth and expanding the
resource count.
In trading this week, ECU was reasonably quiet and stable
and closed at 25.5c. That makes a change from the northern
summer period, when it zipped higher-then-lower on thin
volume.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): Considering ASCU announced this last week (8)…
Toronto, September 24, 2024 – Arizona Sonoran Copper Company Inc. (“Arizona Sonoran” or the
“Company”) (TSX:ASCU) is pleased to announce that the Company has entered into an amending
agreement with Raymond James Ltd. and Paradigm Capital Inc., as co-lead underwriters and joint
bookrunners, on behalf of a syndicate of underwriters (collectively, the "Underwriters") to increase the size of
its previously announced equity offering. The Underwriters have agreed to purchase, on a bought deal basis
from the Company, a total of 20,700,000 common shares of Arizona Sonoran ("Common Shares") at a price
of $1.45 per Common Share for aggregate gross proceeds of $30,015,000 (the "Upsized Offering").
Arizona Sonoran has also granted the Underwriters an over-allotment option (the "Over-Allotment Option") to
purchase, at the Issue Price, up to an additional 15% of the Common Shares issued in connection with the
Upsized Offering. The Over-Allotment Option is exercisable, in whole or in part, by the Underwriters at any
time until and including 30 days after closing of the offering. In the event that the Over-Allotment is exercised
in full, the total Common Shares purchased (including the Common Shares purchased under the Upsized
Offering) will be 23,805,000 Common Shares for aggregate gross proceeds of $34,517,250.
…its share price did very well on a standalone basis, closing at $1.56 rather than the $1.45
price of the original bought deal announced
Tuesday and then upsized to $30m, as seen
above. However, the comparative chart (right)
shows ASCU lagged significantly against peers
due to the bought deal, which means it got
lucky with timing more than anything else.
That said, the Friday close strongly suggests
this bought deal is going to be a success and
as such, we’ve altered the share count in our
Copper Basket table to a pro-rata 133.265m,
12

assuming both deal and overallotment are fully taken.
However, we cannot let this bought deal pass without pointing out some bare-faced hypocrisy
from ASCU on this deal. After the announcement of its (underwhelming) PEA, the ASCU team
hit the trail to market the results and one of its stops was in this webinar, dated August 6th (9).
Once the prepared presentation was done we went to the Q&A section and ASCU CEO George
Ogilvie was asked directly about treasury position and financing plans (at around the hour and
two minute mark, if you want to scroll forward). His reply was equally clear and direct, here’s
the transcript:
"Right now we have just over U$10m cash in the bank, so the treasury is extremely
strong. We will have to raise money I would suspect some time before the end of this
calendar year, but with that, the market should not expect an equity financing. The
management team of this company brought in U$33m last year with the Nuton option to
JV, which was non-dilutive non-equity, and I can tell people on this call today that we
have options on the table for raising money that is non-dilutive, non-equity today. So do
not expect we're coming to the market with an equity raise at these extremely low share
prices."
So, six weeks ago ASCU was in an “exceptionally strong” treasury position, had “non-dilutive
non-equity” funding sources available to it and would not, according to its own CEO, run and
equity raise at these “extremely low share prices”. And now it’s running a $30m bought deal at
these very same share prices, so aside the annoyance retail holders of ASCU may feel this
weekend on this volte-face, what I’d really like to know is to where the supposed non-dilutive
funds disappeared and which larger player got cold feet about putting more cash into this story.
The Producer Basket
After 39 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 40.48% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 62.13 53.90 30.2%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 40.74 81.82 49.2%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 35.52 20.23 11.8%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 24.11 125.51 13.3%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 7.82 21.45 31.4%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.883 5.16 21.60 70.9%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 4.20 6.80 41.4%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.56 17.60 35.7%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.82 10.12 57.4%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.42 9.54 63.6%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 40.48%
The 39th week of 2024 and the third quarter (minus one day) came to a close with a whimper,
rather than a bang, with a mixed bag of four winners (PAAS, HL, EGO, DPMLF) and six losers
(NEM, GOLD, AEM, FNV, LUGDF, WDOFF) with none of those making big moves away from the
neutral line as our week’s best was Dundee PM (DPOMLF up 1.3%) and the worst Lundin Gold
(LUGDF down 2.5%).
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
50% comparative to GDX control
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
13 ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2.0%
ikn 0.0%
gdx control -2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-14.0%
source: IKN calcs -16.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

But that shouldn’t take the shine off what was a sparkling quarter for the precious metals
producers with gold bullion up around 14%, the GDX benchmark up around 18% and our
basket doing significantly better than both of those. Our lead over the benchmark was 3.71% at
the start of Q3, it’s now 10.33% and that’s as big an advantage as we’ve ever held at this stage
of the annual proceedings.
The 2024 Producer Basket components after 39 weeks
To repeat the message in today’s Copper
Basket, we’re running with the fact that
week 39 of the year is now in the bag and
studiously ignoring the fact that there’s a
trading day of Q3 left to run in order to
present our end-quarter snapshot of
comparative performance among our ten
Producer Basket components. Here’s the
chart (right).
By way of a benchmark, the GDX is
exactly 30.15% up in 2024 YTD and that
means we only have two
underperformers. One of those is
excusable to a point, as Franco-Nevada (FNV) is always going to be a more defensive choice in
our sector. However, we did choose it for the list in 2024 because we thought it would rebound
on better news out of Cobre Panamá and but so far, that’s been patchy (see the latest below).
But the real loser in 2024 to date is undoubtedly Barrick (GOLD), which only managed to crawl
back into the green very recently. What was the world’s #2 publicly traded precious metals
mining company is now #3, thanks to the combo of its lackluster performance and the
continued good run out of Agnico (AEM). Arguably NRM and PAAS are now “market perform”
and that means NEM in particular has had a great Q3, playing a lot of catch-up to its peers.
That’s a healthy thing for all PM stocks, we need the world’s #1 goldie to strut its stuff and
attract attention as the only member of the S&P500 that does this sector and can attract
attention from the deep pockets of generalists.
The aforementioned Agnico Eagle (AEM) is beating GDX by around 10% which, considering the
size of the stock, is no mean achievement. However, the top three stocks show that our
decision to add leverage to this year’s basket was the right call and all three of the “Canadian
mid-tier” picks have been unadulterated winners, all up over 50% with the move in Q3 by
Lundin Gold (LUG.to) the star turn.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF): With the plaudits above duly recognized, we still need
to note that WDO has hit a bit of a wall recently and that relative weakness continued last
week, the stock down 1.6% and one of the first to sell off sharply into the Friday profit-take
move. This two-month chart vs GDX shows the weakness in late August, then the quick catch-
up early in the month, since then the continued selling. We’ll probably have to wait until the
week after next for its 3q24 production and preliminary sales numbers and that might be the
problem, however there are other options and smart market player (and WDO long, I believe)
Bill Fleckenstein made an observation early in the week (10) that might account for the recent
weakness:
“Without a COO and short two
board members (including
chairman, it seems rather hard
to believe that they are actually
doing anything at all on the
M&A front.”
That’s true and counts for both hunting
and hunted sides of M&A. The market
may simply be assuming there’s no
14
%9.07 %6.36
%4.75
%2.94
%4.14 %7.53 %4.13 %2.03
%3.31
%8.11
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
FDGUL FFODW FLMPD MEA LH OGE SAAP MEN VNF DLOG
13 weeks
26 weeks
39 weeks
source: NYSE: IKN calcs

serious suitor for WDO at present and marking down the potential for a buyout premium.
Lundin Gold (LUGDF) (LUG.to): On the subject of M&A, there’s no link for this one but last
week saw another round of rumours and jungledrums about LUG looking to buy
someone/something and use its equity to secure a second gold asset, be that producer or a
development play. Your guess is as good as mine on what they might aim to buy (e.g. Montage
Gold (MAU.v) and its Koné Gold Project in Côte d'Ivoire was floated to this desk by A.N. Other
as a possible target), but what I do know is that the last time these rumours did the rounds
earlier this year, LUG had ruled out buying its next project inside Ecuador. I can’t blame them.
Franco-Nevada (FNV): This snippet about the slow defrosting of the Panama Cobre mine in
the eponymous country could have gone in Regional Politics or even Market Watching, but I’m
putting it here because FNV can benefit, though not as much as FM.to. We’ve expected the new
government in Panama to want to reach an agreement with FM.to over its shuttered and we’ve
also supposed an obvious way out: If the government allows FM to sell the approximate
120,000 tonnes of copper concentrate stored on site and gives the company access to its
dedicated port facility again, the first thin it would do is bring cash revenue into the company
(and the FNV via royalty payments), but it’s also the obvious way of clearing the logjam and
allowing activity to resume. And sure enough, last week Panama’s Finance Minister, Felipe
Chapman stated as much during a Bloomberg radio interview (11):
(Bloomberg) -- Panama’s finance chief sees no good reason why First Quantum Minerals Ltd.
shouldn’t export the large volume of copper stockpiled at its shuttered mine in the country.
The government is working with a third party on an environmental assessment to quantify the
amount of copper concentrate stored at the mine and determine when it was extracted, Finance
Minister Felipe Chapman said Friday.
“The copper cannot lie sitting there forever. It has to be taken out, and if you are going to take it
out, you might as well export it,” Chapman said in an interview in Bloomberg’s New York
headquarters. “We have to complete the due diligence before making a decision.”
Even Panama’s most radical environmentalists haven’t argued against exporting the copper that
has already been mined, he added.
He also noted that a prerequisite for this deal would be FM desisting from its International Tribunal
case. That’s unlikely at this stage, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of the possible to see FM
put the case into suspension.
The TinyCaps List
After 39 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 49.97% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 252.95 29.09 0.115 76.9%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 86.798 37.32 0.43 218.5%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 40.65 0.38 123.5%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 21.77 0.145 -19.4%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 4.87 0.055 -45.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 96.476 8.68 0.09 20.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 13.19 0.185 42.3%
South Star STS.v 0.750 52.64 30.53 0.58 -22.7%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 39.87 0.14 50.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 21.31 0.18 50.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 49.97%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
15

 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average improved by over nine percent TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
on the week and that’s a chunky move, with six 90%
winners (BAY.v, DMX.v, LMS.v, PA.v, SURG.v, 80%
70%
VAU.v), three losers (ARIC.v, EDG.v, STS.v) and one 60%
unchanged stock (KLDC.v) making for a positive 50%
40%
headcount. There were a couple of big percentage 30%
gainers in there too, with news driving both District 20%
10%
Metals (DMX.v up 24.6%) and Aston Bay (BAY.v up 0%
21.1%) notably higher.
District Metals (DMX.v): This time last week, with
uranium suddenly starting to catch a bid on the back of Microsoft’s decision to fund Three Mile
Island back into full production, I hummed and hawed about mentioning the U news in
connection with this stock, as it’s our only U-centric stock in the letter presently. However and
on consideration, as it’s also an exploreco hunting in Sweden, not a supplier of yellowcake to
US refineries I decided it was too much of a stretch and left it out.
Thereby missing a chance to shine. Or something.
DMX rallied on no news, but the pump by market influencer Warren Irwin (who is obviously
long, or at least was) timed with the U rally was enough to pop the stock higher. No matter that
the uranium project is unpermittable even if Sweden lifts its moratorium, this is junior mining
and they sell the sizzle, not the steak.
Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v): I’m not the greatest fan of this stock and it’s on the this this
year mainly to monitor how the new Australian influence affects its share price (and its
marketing), but fair is fair and it must be said, the drill asay it dropped on Friday morning was
genuinely good. For a change. Here’s the NR headline (12):
“Aston Bay and American West Metals Report 22.9m @ 8.5% Cu Intersected at
the Storm Project, Nunavut, Canada”
The JV reported a long list of assays and plenty of them were good, so you’re encouraged to
use the link and check it out. We’ll just go with the headline assay as it’s a reasonable sample:
That’s a good looking intersect. The 22.86m of 8.5% copper made the headline, but 53m of
3.9% copper at around 100m depth is economic as long as there’s enough strike, even in a
remote location such as Storm. The stock rallied on the news and rightly so, the job now is to
further define resource tonnage because size matters.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): This stock closed its 25m unit financing in good style on Friday, with
insiders (mostly Robert Kopple) taking 10m of the offering. To its credit, the LMS corporate
structure will be able to make $2m last a long time, to the downside that share count has just
taken a serious leg higher and we also need to consider the warrant overhang at 15c now.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
16
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Regional politics
Mexico gets a new President
As expected last week, any debate on the infamous open pit mining ban was left off the agenda
for AMLO’s last full week as President, so after all the over-reaction and drama of the last two
months in Mexico’s mining scene we reach the end of the AMLO tenure. Tomorrow Monday is
his last day at work, Tuesday October 1st Claudia Sheinbaum takes over and Mexico lays on the
full protocol for its new President, its population who’ll pack the Zocalo and the assembled
guests from around the world. Those not invited include Peru’s Dina Boluarte (considered an
usurper by AMLO), Ecuador’s Noboa (that Emabssy thing) and oddly Spain’s King, who refused
to apologize for the things Hernan Cortés did in a 16th century and was left off the list (not
joking), so Spain PM isn’t coming either.
Next week will be party, formality, back-slapping and such like, don’t expect real political news
out of Mexico for at least a week. At some point we’ll get a policy statement out of its new
mining secretary and it’s going to be less dramatic than the naysayers would have you believe.
Argentina: First Quantum commits to Taca Taca
We’ve mentioned the project on these pages previously this year, last week came more solid
evidence that the big Taca Taca project in Salta is going to happen, starting next year. On
Tuesday, FM.to co-founder (with his recently deceased brother) Matt Pascal, along with the
head of its Argentina team Germán Pérez, met Argentina’s Cabinet Chief Guillermo Francos (a
level above even the mining minister) in a public meeting that suited both sides. First Quantum
at Taca Taca got more publicity for its project now in the Environmental Assessment stage (the
EIa permit scheduled to be awarded in 1q25) and the Milei government got more evidence that
its policies to attract large-scale FDI were working. Cabinet Chief Guillermo Francos said for the
record (quote translated) (13):
“This project, on which I’ve spoken with (Salta) governor Gustavo Sáenz, aimed at the production
of copper, gold and molybdenum, will be the biggest ever mining project in the province of Salta.”
“The development of this key project for the population of Salta and of Argentina is set on the
RIGI laws that were passed as part of the “Bases Law” reform package, aimed at generating the
right conditions of stability, clear rules and a competitive playing field that are needed for this
type of investment in Argentina.”
The presser also confirmed the capex ticket price of U$3.6Bn, would generate around 10,000
jobs during the construction phase and would cover exports of around U$2Bn per annum once
in operation. The cabinet chief also noted that the development would also mean upgrades to
Salta’s electricity transmission, railway and airport systems.
Argentina: The Milei honeymoon is ending
The latest deal announcement (above) underscores how Milei’s government is important to the
mining industry, firstly because he brings the right pro-business free-market image to the table
(thereby allowing the world to get over its leeriness toward the Basket Case Country to beat
them all). However it’s not merely style, as his government has brought substance via reforms
that have opened up the country for large-scale developments, particularly the RIGI law, with
its tax breaks and stability guarantees. They’ve ushered in a new period in which companies
should be more willing to investment the multi-billion dollar amounts that large-scale mines
require in upfront capital, with BHP/Lundin and the Filo/Josemaria deal, and now the First
Quantum announcement as concrete proof.
Therefore, the Milei government’s wider success (or failure) is important to us and when it
comes to the plan proposed by Javier Milei to turn Argentina from its Peronist influenced (i.e
long-standing basket case) economy and into something more orthodox, the equation has
always been reasonably straightforward for the outside observer. To be fair, the consequences
of his agenda in general terms weren’t lost on Argentines either, his was the “near-term pain
for long-term gain” message and he never hid the fact. Voters in 2023 knew a recession in
2024 would happen but the bet was on economic recovery the other side of a V-shaped drop,
17

once the country had reached monetary stability and weaned itself off the nanny State of
subsidies and hand-outs. Sounds great in their but we knew it was always going to be a
delicate balancing act, after watching the previous decade and how Mauricio Macri tried the
same moves. He lacked the firebrand radical platform from which he could defend the hard
decisions and ended up giving in to social pressure, falling between two stools and making the
country worse, rather than better (thereby opening the door once again to the Peronists, via
the Alberto Fernández government).
Which beings us to our point today: In previous Regional Politics sections on Argentina we
noted a slow but clear deterioration in popularity for both President Milei and his government.
That was to be expected, as the recession and deep reforms in both private and public sector
resulted in job losses and a drop in acquisitive power for the average Argentine. But overall and
until recently, his popularity had held up fairly well and the government had passed one of the
acid tests in Argentina politics, “Hay que pasar el invierno”, (“you have to get through the
winter”, as featured in our last updates on this subject in IKN789 and IKN790 just as the
southern winter was setting in). But in the translated words of this headline (14) on Tuesday
September 24th in El Economista (an Argentina serious biz media channel), “Something has
broken: Why Milei’s image has dropped by 10 points since September 8th”. The article is a good
one and I was going to pick up on its points, but then on Friday we had 1) the London FT
running with its version of the same story under the headline (15) “Argentina’s poverty rate
soars above 50% under Javier Milei” and then even better, the excellent coverage of LatAm
affairs in the English language, Latin America Daily Briefing, ran a digest report on the issue
and to save me time, here’s the cover of that (16):
Argentina’s poverty rate rose to 53 percent in the first six months of President Javier Milei’s shock-
therapy austerity government. That is a jump from 42% in December, 5.5 million new poor,
according to official statistics released yesterday. Sixty-six percent of children under the age of 14
are poor. The numbers are the worst since 2003, when Argentina was exiting an economic
meltdown. (El País)
Argentina’s annual inflation is at more than 230 percent. Milei's massive spending cuts have been
applauded by markets, but have pushed the country into a deep recession, notes Reuters.
The government blamed the situation on its predecessor’s policies, reports the Associated Press.
The new data comes as, for the first time, the number of Argentines with a negative view of Milei’s
government outnumber those who see the administration positively. And nobody expects a rapid
economic recovery, further complicating Milei’s panorama.
A closely watched index of confidence in the government compiled by Torcuato Di Tella university
fell 14.7 per cent in September, by far the biggest fluctuation this year, reports the Financial Times.
“Heat, humidity and energy collapse can be an explosive cocktail, even more so when electricity
bills are four, seven or more times more expensive than a few months ago,” writes Hugo Alconada
Mon in El País. “And the Casa Rosada can explain that investments in infrastructure take time and
that the legacy received is overwhelming - which is true - but society is beginning to demand
solutions from Milei, not from those who left almost ten months ago.”
There were five surveys released last week and
while covering different aspects of the country and
its politics, they all pointed in the same direction.
Perhaps the highlight survey result came from the
regular monthly poll taken by one of Argentina’s
most respected pollsters, Opina, and this specific
question (visual right). Perhaps not the disaster area
numbers we see from governments in Peru or
(increasingly) Colombia, but it’s a tide change in the
air and Opina called its survey results a “Notable
Deterioration”. We call it the end of the extended
honeymoon period and now starts a difficult period
for the Milei government, in which he and his
policies will have to show tangible results else head
18

down the same sorry road as that of the Macri government in the two-thousand teens.
Colombia: COP 16 on the horizon
Following on from the news that the Petro government now has a working law that can
automatically make any region of the country they like a “temporary nature reserve”, thereby
stopping any type of civil works permit until further studies are made, we remind readers of a
date for your ecology diary and let’s go with Wikipedia to give the basics (17):
The 2024 United Nations Biodiversity Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the UN Convention on
Biological Diversity (CBD) is a conference scheduled to be held from October 21 to November 1,
2024 in Cali, Colombia. The monitoring framework agreed at the previous conference should allow
the progress of the countries towards national goals and targets under the Kunming-Montreal
Global Biodiversity Framework to be evaluated.
Canadians may remember COP15 in Montreal in 2022, this time it’s Colombia’s turn and this
time around, Colombian environment minister Susana Muhamad (also one of President Petro’s
closest inner-circle allies and as anti-mining academic in her own right) is presiding the
meeting. Here’s a preview blurb (18):
Susana Muhamad, who will be president of the UN biodiversity Cop16 summit in Cali in October,
said that a singular focus on cutting carbon emissions while failing to restore and protect natural
ecosystems would be “dangerous for humanity” and risk societal collapse.
While laying out her vision for the meeting during a press briefing in Montreal, Canada, Muhamad
said a main focus would be to raise political awareness for the natural world to keep humanity in
safe planetary limits.
“There is a double movement humanity must make. The first one is to decarbonise and have a just
energy transition,” Muhamad said. “The other side of the coin is to restore nature and allow nature
to take again its power over planet Earth so that we can really stabilise the climate.
As far as mining in Colombia is concerned, it won’t want to be antsy part of the agenda in Cali
at the end of this month, no news will be good news. For a little extra feel for the state of
Colombia in the run-up to COP16, President Gustavo Petro addressed the drop in the share
price of Colombia’s semi-State run oil&gas company Ecopetrol (EC) this weekend (19) on
TwitterX by pinning a 15 year price chart and saying this (translated):
“This is the long-term evolution of the price of Ecopetrol shares. Note the high oil prices.
Colombia’s hydrocarbons boom in 2013 and the decay of the fossil fuels model that I spoke about
and made part of my election campaign.
The data ratifies my position: We need to move away
from fossil fuels capital and transition as quickly as
possible to a decarbonized economy, in which
Ecopetrol can play a central role.”
His choice of stats data is all well and good, but
when talking about the recent drop in EC shares
I’d prefer a 2024 YTD comparing it to the main
O&G producers’ ETF (XOP) and nearest direct
peer, Brazil’s semi-private/semi-state Petrobras
(PBR). They’re all down in 2024, but to
paraphrase Orwell some are more equal than
others.
Avoid Colombia.
Bolivia: A truce of sorts
A brief-as-possible update on the political and social instability in Bolivia, as per the “Evo
Mayhem” note in IKN801 last weekend: The Evo Morales-led protest hit La Paz on Monday, at
the press conference Evo called for the government to change its ministers within 24 hours “or
else”, the Luis Arce government accused Evo of staging a Coup and started legal proceedings
against him, Evo walked back his words on Thursday, Arce’s Interior Minister Iván Lima (20)
resigned the same day (one of Arce’s key allies) but while doing so, stated that Evo was still
barred from running, then on Friday the Arce government reiterated the court’s position that
Evo was ineligible for next year’s election (21) and that he should respect the independence of
the country’s judiciary on the issue (which was the biggest joke of the whole week) and on the
19

same day, his allies lifted a nine-day roadblock on the road that connects the capital to Peru (an
Aymara region stronghold). This weekend Evo is back at his farm tending his crops and the bad
blood in the MAS party rumbles on, with another protest mooted for a couple of weeks time.
Peru: More on illegal mining
We broached the subject last week in “Peru: The growing problem of illegal mining” and as the
President of Peru’s main chamber of mining, Victor Gobitz of the SNMPE, added plenty of fuel to
the fire during a radio interview last week, it gets a second mention (22).
Appearing on Peru’s main news radio channel RPP, Gobitz offered the headline-making
sound bite “illegal mining was not far from taking control of the country” and if that
sounds like hyperbole, some context will put you right.
Gobitz is now at loggerheads with none other than the head of Peru’s Congress for the 2024-
2025 period, Eduardo Salhuana, who was voted up as president for the period by his peers
despite his background as a lawyer in the Madre de Dios region of South Peru where he
represented no end of people acused of illegal mining in the jungle zone and somehow, along
the way, made himself very rich. Rich enough to then run for Congress, finance his own
campaign and position himself into a position of great power in the sitting Congress. As
President of Congress, he has plenty of say on which law bills make it to the floor, debate and
eventual vote. As such, Salhuana has dragged his feet on presenting the “Small and Artisan
Mining Law”, (de Ley de la Pequeña Minería y Minería Artesanal, known locally as the “Ley
Mape”) law bill. This law, if passed would replace the current law that allows informal miners to
remain “in process of formalization” for an indeterminate time period and gives them the right
to buy mining supplies such as chemicals and explosives. Instead Eduardo Salhuana wants to
allows the current law known locally as “Reinfo”, (acronym for Registro Integral de
Formalización Minera and I’m not going to translate that, should be reasonably obvious) to
continue and argued in Congress that it does not promote illegal mining. However, anyone with
more than five working neurons knows it does exactly that and it’s why Salhuana doesn’t want
anything to change. In his radio interview Gobitz said (translated) (23):
“We all know that Señor Salhuana, a lawyer by profession, has operated in the Madre de
Dios region where there is illegal mining. Therefore, put the pieces together and come to
your own conclusions, the fruits of which explain why he (Salhuana) has given this opinion
(that the Reinfo law does not shield illegal mining activities). In his professional career he
has represented many miners from the Madre de Dior region. I believe he should be
transparent about this and considering the position he has now achieved (as president of
Congress), be responsible in getting to the bottom of this issue.”
Hence the confrontation between Congress and the SNMPE and why Gobtiz’s words are not so
far from the truth. There are enormous amounts of money in play here, the illegal/informal
mining in the Madre de Dios region accounts for around 15% of Peru’s total gold production
and there’s plenty of evidence that Eduardo Salhuana is tight with the illegal miners running the
Pataz region and terrorizing formal mining operations there. To wit, another security guard was
murdered in confrontations between illegal invaders at the Poderosa mine last week. We’re left
with a situation in Peru where the illegal miners, now using all types of strong-arm tactics
against locals and mining companies, are being shielded at the highest levels in Peru’s
infamously corrupt Congress and the only equivalent that comes to mind is the way Pablo
Escobar managed to become a member of Colombia’s Congress in the early 1980s and along
the way, have many of his fellow members of Congress at the time on his slush money payroll.
Peru has a serious problem on its hands with the rise of the illegal mining gangs and Victor
Gobitz was not exaggerating the problem on Peru’s talk radio last week.
Market Watching
Vizsla Silver (VZLA.v) (VZLA): Trouble in Copala
This is one of those notes that straddles “Regional Politics” and “Market Watching”, but it’s
going here because there’s a potential trade on a widely held name at stake. If you go over to
the Vizsla Silver (VZLA.v) (VZLA) website and check the latest news from the company, its last
20

two weeks look like business as usual, with the closing of its $65m bought deal and then full
take-up of the overallotment facility, plus last week’s announcement of the publication of its
annual sustainability report.
That last one is somewhat ironic, as things are far from calm and sustained in and around the
Copala region of Sinaloa State, Mexico. For the last few months there has been a rise in narco
gang related violence and specifically, a turf war inside the renowned Sinaloa Cartel, once
controlled by the infamous El Chapo Guzmán. This isn’t a house specialty subject and the
following broad strokes don’t do it justice, but the last few months have seen a rise in bad
blood between four factions of the Cartel as individual leaders vie for overall control and as the
internal narco gang conflict has escalated, the region in and around Copala, i.e. the location of
the Vizsla Silver mine project, has become ground zero for the conflict. Things started to get
out of hand after the election when the winner of the
mayoral election in Copala was assassinated (24) just
days after winning the vote and as it happens, his
replacement has been arrested for apparently ordered
the hit, just days before he was about to formally
become the next mayor. Meanwhile, (25) about a month
ago the four warring factions reportedly turned into two,
as the leaders of the two groups decided to form an
alliance at the same time as the other two teamed up.
Since then gang violence in and around Copala has gone
off-scale and while it’s tough to get a news report on the
situation, there’s plenty of evidence of a full-scale war in
the vicinity of the mine and all activity at the project site
has been suspended, with personnel evacuated due to the high danger.
[EDIT: Before going to press this Sunday evening, a contact with intimate knowledge of the
area reached out to this desk to say (via Twitter DM) “Vizsla has been on halt for 22 days due
to the violence in Sinaloa. Chapitos vs Mayitos. The area around Copala is controlled by the
Chapitos. Contacts who live there say it’s a war”. The two gangs mentioned are the two
allegiances made recently]
So far VZLA has been whistling past the graveyard on this sudden uptick in risk around its
project, but if operations remain suspended for much longer it will have to say something to the
market and with the company running a bought deal at the same time as suspending its
operations, there may be more than simple near-term share price consequences to consider.
New Found Gold (NFG.v) (NFGC) ignores its shorts
A strange non-response from New Found Gold (NFG.v) (NFGC) to the news of the Short Report
from Iceberg Research dated September 19th (26) and discussed in IKN801 last weekend in the
note “New Found Gold: A Queensway crystallization moment”. In the event of this type of short
attack, it’s normal procedure for a company to defend itself by addressing the issues,
disparaging its attacker for using slimy tactics to make money etc but NFG didn’t do that.
Despite having four days to compose something, all we had from the company last week was a
NR on Monday (27) that reported “more of the same” type of tight space high grade drill
results, exactly the type Iceberg pointed to as potentially misleading. The stock attempted a
rally in the middle of last week but it ran out of gas and by the end of the week, it was down vs
the benchmarks (chart right GLD, GDX and GDXJ)
by roughly the same amount as last weekend,
right after the report publication.
The “ignore it” strategy may work, but if the
issues don’t go away and the stock price continues
under pressure then the company will be obliged
to address them at some point, if only to assuage
its own shareholders. However, “ignore it” is the
21

exception rather than the norm and is even stranger when you consider NFG’s main sponsor is
Eric Sprott, the very person normally so vociferous against shorting in the market and one of
the figures behind the “Save Canadian Mining” movement.
Conclusion
IKN802 is done, we end with just one bullet point:
 This week is more of a maintenance issue than packed with novelties and insights,
testament to the way I see the market at the moment. Jesse’s Livermore’s “Be Right Sit
Tight” maxim comes to mind and by being long gold, copper, silver and the rest we’ve
got the first part right. Sometimes, the best thing to do is nothing.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/schedule-for-week-of-september-29-2024.html
(2) https://ascotgold.com/news-releases/2024/ascot-extends-waiver-arrangements-with-its-secured-creditors/
(3) https://www.provenancegold.com/20240925-provenance-gold-confirms-gold-mineralization-extends-to-depth-in-the-
first-drill-hole-at-eldorado
(4) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-prices-set-for-best-week-in-4-months-on-china-stimulus-led-rally/
(5) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lme-week-stakeholders-to-weigh-challenges-and-opportunities-facing-global-
metals-markets/
(6) https://ngexminerals.com/news/ngex-announces-exploration-plan-for-lunahuasi-122767/
(7) https://www.e29copper.com/news/element-29-commences-resource-expansion-drill-program-at-its--elida-porphyry-
cu-mo-ag-deposit-in-central-per
(8) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizonan-sonoran-announces-upsize-to-bought-deal-common-share-
offering-to-30-million/
(9) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16rorY_6-U4
(10) https://x.com/fleckcap/status/1838269210847514716?t=UABAazufHfRNFDKYG1Hjuw&s=03
(11) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-27/panama-sees-exports-of-stockpiled-first-quantum-copper-as-
viable
(12) https://astonbayholdings.com/news/aston-bay-report-22.9m-8.5-cu-intersected-at-the-storm/
(13) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/2024/09/25/taca-taca-confirman-al-gobierno-nacional-inversion-de-usd-3-600-
millones-y-10-mil-puestos-de-trabajo/
(14) https://eleconomista.com.ar/politica/algo-rompio-imagen-milei-cayo-10-puntos-8-septiembre-n77845
(15) https://www.ft.com/content/ccaeb4f5-6818-4aec-8112-cbf3639ad557?emci=5f9184b3-df7c-ef11-8474-
6045bda8aae9&emdi=4459730e-e37c-ef11-8474-6045bda8aae9&ceid=4606001
(16) https://latinamericadailybriefing.substack.com/p/argentinas-poverty-rate-is-over-50
(17) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Nations_Biodiversity_Conference
(18) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/22/nature-catastrophe-biodiversity-summit-president-
carbon-emissions-climate-breakdown-susana-muhamad-aoe
22

(19) https://x.com/petrogustavo/status/1840113337671233877?t=0dqqgbu39j8hd7f6XdeX4g&s=03
(20) https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2024/09/27/renuncio-ivan-lima-el-ministro-de-justicia-considerado-
una-autoridad-clave-del-gobierno-de-luis-arce-en-bolivia/
(21) https://www.cronica.com.ar/politica/Evo-Morales-esta-inhabilitado-por-Constitucion-de-Bolivia-para-participar-en-
comicios-de-2025-aclara-Gobierno-20240927-0205.html
(22) https://proactivo.com.pe/victor-gobitz-mineria-ilegal-no-esta-lejos-de-tomar-el-control-del-pais/
(23) https://rpp.pe/economia/economia/victor-gobitz-todos-sabemos-que-salhuana-fue-abogado-en-madre-de-dios-
donde-hay-mineria-ilegal-snmpe-noticia-1587403
(24) https://eldiariodesonora.com.mx/mexico/2024/09/25/nuevo-giro-guerra-cartel-sinaloa-guano-une-mayo.html
(25) https://www.elsoldeacapulco.com.mx/policiaca/detienen-al-alcalde-suplente-de-copala-por-crimen-del-primer-edil-
12632678.html
(26) https://iceberg-research.com/2024/09/19/new-found-gold-corp-nyse-nfgc-tsx-nfg-lies-misrepresentations-and-a-
professional-stock-promoter/
(27) https://newfoundgold.ca/news/new-found-intersects-300-g-t-au-over-5-1m-and-215-g-t-au-over-5-2m-at-keats-with-
phase-i-trench-channel-samples/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
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GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
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New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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