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The IKN Weekly
Week 799, September 8th 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, US Inflation on deck, What happened Friday.
Fundamental Analysis: Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): Buy the placement or the open market.
Stocks to Follow: Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), American Eagle (AE.v), Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v),
Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), QC Copper (QCCU.v), Solaris
Resources (SLS.to), NGEx Minerals (NGEX.to).
The Producer Basket: Extended overview.
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Awalé Resources (ARIC.v), Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Regional Politics: Conference season in North and South America, Ecuador: Concession
corruption, More Argentina and more Rio Negro, More Mexico open pit mining politics, Chile:
Codelco finds a way to stay #1.
Market Watching: Testing myself on 35 exploration stage copper companies (Part Five). A
week of blow-ups.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
The timing is awful for my personal back pocket, I’m going to have to sell something in order to
do this. However, after following the stock for five year and closely for the last six months or
so, the time has come to either urinate or get off the pot. I’m a buyer of Red Pine Exploration
(RPX.v) this coming week, details in the main fundies section below.
In today’s edition
 It wasn’t exactly a warm welcome back from the summer break for metals and mining
stocks, with the GDX down 6.0% since Labor Day and juniors of all types selling off
(and special nastiness in uranium and copper exploreco stocks). However, the
fundamental logic for owning our volatile sector is as valid today as last weekend and
with the speculative cash betting on a 50bps rates drop now out the way, we expect
better and more constructive trading for the rest of the month. After all, gold is
stubborn at U$2,500/oz for good reasons. Today’s intro, plus other places.
 Our main fundies section today is the second piece in as many weeks on Red Pine
Exploration (RPX.v), but this time it’s serious as there no more avoiding a proactive
decision on the stock, so a few more pages to explain why I’m a buyer of RPX.
 In Regional Politics, another salvo of Mexican politics as concerns the overblown and
misunderstood open pit drama. Your author tries hard not to go too far down the rabbit
hole. Not in public, anyway.
 Plenty to look forward to in the week ahead with newsflow from conferences, CPI
numbers that can solidify the upcoming Fed decision and , in my view, a market that
will feel somewhat sheepish for having sold metals and miners so heavily on Friday and
give us a welcome rebound.
1

US Inflation on deck
This week sees the US BLS give us its August Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading and while the
Fed apparently leans more heavily on the PCE number these days, the world is going to pay
attention to this dataset as it’s the last one to drop before the Fed starts its loosening cycle.
According to Calculated Risk this weekend (1)
“The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is
for CPI to be up 2.6% year-over-year (down from 2.9% in July) and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY
(unchanged from 3.2% in July).”
The same link goes on to note that Producer Prices (PPI) are also forecast to rise by 0.2%
when that data is released on Thursday morning. So if inflation ticks up on the headline
numbers in the way the market expects, the Fed will have another jawbone weapon at its
command. With talk of the 50bps drop now vaporized, we may even see fringe voices calling
for Jerome & Co to stay pat on rates for one more FOMC. The games people play.
What happened Friday
Like a right gypsy hath at fast and loose
Beguiled me to the very heart of loss.
Antony and Cleopatra, Act 4 Sc12
The market was already down about metals and mining stocks, with selling out of the gate
Tuesday morning once Labor Day was behind us, but that wasn’t out of the ordinary and as the
week progressed, an air of optimism returned. That changed with the US Jobs report on Friday
morning and the selling was across the board, as this 2-day chart shows:
A brutal drop on the back of the report, which presented numbers (+143k NFP, 4.2% headline)
that were inside the forecasts, as well adjustments to the two previous months to account for
the 80k or so jobs that the BLS had subsequently decided didn’t exist (and while social media
was up in arms about that for a while, we shouldn’t lose sight of how this dataset is always
noisy, messy and prone to revisions). But when everything drops this way (and the dollar
remains stable), it’s indicative of speculative cash running away rather than a sea-change
market direction. What we saw Friday was the speculative end of the market beat its retreat. As
last week wore on, the speculation that the Fed would drop rates by 50bps on September 18th
grew and with it that speculation came the bets. They vanished quickly on Friday morning and
that’s what caused the pullback.
However, the most important thing is that THERE IS NO
TREND CHANGE. The downdraft Friday was fast and
brutal, but anyone calling for the Death Of Gold on the
back of one day’s action needs their head examining.
There’s no need to make a big feature of this point
again, the small, three year GLD visual (right) is enough,
every downspike you see on that chart was
accompanied by the gold naysayers giving us the “It’s
Over For The Pet Rock” spiel. Enough said.
2

Gold isn’t going anywhere, but more importantly for our argument today is the stability gold has
shown since crossing the U$2,500/oz threshold on August 16th. It’s spiked down on a couple of
occasions (including Friday) and we’ve seen attempts to run higher, but the SD is just 1%
either side of the new line in the sand.
That fits closely with the message from the intro in IKN797 dated August 25th about the price of
gold, one that didn’t go down so well with a couple of readers. We wrote: “…the price of gold is
a leading and not a lagging indicator and the upcoming rate drops will not affect gold in the
same way as the recent anticipation has. Gold at U$2,500/oz is great news, but the Fed’s eye
on inflation means it doesn’t have much immediate upside left.”
The bottom line: Don’t confuse the moves of speculative cash with the tide and the clearly
defined direction of the market. The Friday selling hurt me too, no fun at all to watch your
sector of focus break sharply lower as generalist cash exits then go into oversold mode, even
panicky for a while. However, we need to consider what changed and what didn’t
 What changed: Forecasts of 50bps and quicker rate reductions were discarded.
 What didn’t change: The Fed will start cutting in ten days’ time.
That’s all, and that why gold has stuck around the U$2,500/oz line. It’s also why the
fundamentals for the mining stocks remain strong, as we’re about to enter a classic sweet spot
for the sector when rates drop, money gets cheaper, inflation concerns abate and the margins
being made on every ounce of mined gold is consolidated. And while the second part of the
outlook seen in the IKN797 intro has yet to happen, it’s only a matter of time. Here’s how we
put it two weeks ago:
“Be clear, the triple whammy of 1) controlled inflation 2) interest rates dropping 2) gold at
these prices is a near-perfect environment for precious metal mining stocks, the ones we
cover, watch and buy here at The IKN Weekly and unlike gold bullion in dollars, the miners
are obviously lagging the metal. That’s where we are today, an environment in which the
mining stocks will outperform not only gold, but most other industrial sectors.”
And for what that means as Conference Season kicks off, this is from last week’s intro:
“Ask this desk for a single prediction on what to expect from the upcoming conference
season, with Beaver Creek the opening act for September’s main event and the Denver
Gold Show, it’d be that you’re about to hear CEO after CEO get up on stage and tell the
generalist audience that they are dollar printing presses at these gold price and the serious
money should get on before the Q3 results seasons kicks off.”
Friday’s BLS Unemployment Report might have changed a few market assumptions about the
Fed rate policy, but it didn’t change the fact that thanks to the gold price run in 2024,
Newmont, Barrick, Agnico, Kinross, etc etc etc are now selling every ounce of gold for 25%
more than at the start of the year and are owners of high margin, free cash flow monsters. Get
ready to hear that from voices that matter, not just from pipsqueaks with newsletters.
3

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): Buy the placement or buy on the open market
As they say from where I grew up, “Time to piss or get off the pot, lad”. After visiting the
Wawa project way back in 2019 and watching its corporate development since that time
without ever buying a share, we’ve finally reached the moment of truth and, as noted above,
I’ve decided to buy shares on the back of the developments in the last two weeks. For one
thing, last week’s announcement of the financing placement leaves me with no more excuses
(hence “the pot” above) and for another, there’s too much to like about “New RPX going
forward to ignore any more.
We’ve done plenty of work on RPX already in 2024, from the coverage of the assay drama in
May, then soft coverage via the Watch List, up to and including the update in ‘Market Watching’
last week in IKN798. So don’t expect this note to re-tread all those subjects and for reference
purposes, the first thing we do today is remind where you can re-read on RPX in back copies.
But before we dive in, I want to make two personal clarifications about my own trade plans. For
one, I won’t be buying into the bought deal placement and much prefer to keep myself away
from all that, steer clear of any accusations of any type of conflict and purchase on the open
market. However, I’d encourage Canadian accredited investors to give serious consideration to
the placement as the terms look good and the flow-through portion may fit into your financial
universe. Secondly, as stated clearly in the last two weeks I had to scrape the bottom of my
personal cash barrel to buy my shares in American Eagle (AE.v) and as I write this intro,
Saturday afternoon, I’m not sure how I’m going to raise the cash to buy an opening tranche of
RPX. The most likely is a partial sale of one of the open trades, but I’m undecided on what to
partially sell (and may not even tell you if/when I do sell a few shares). Therefore, the purchase
I plan for next week will be reasonably small but it’s almost certain the first of several as I scale
in, all depends on personal funds.
With that done, time for some real work and today we do this:
1) A re-cap of recent coverage
2) A look at the placement terms and what it means to the share structure
3) Thoughts on what we can expect from RPX going forward
4) A preliminary, ballpark and highly conservative valuation and price target
And please be crystal clear: When I say “preliminary, ballpark and highly conservative” I mean
it and the person who says “…yabbut that IKN guy thinks RPX is worth $____...” is better off
taking remedial English comprehension lessons than positions in high risk explorecos. Enough
blah-blah, we begin:
A re-cap of recent coverage: First things first and we’re not going back to the 2019 site visit
or the occasion mention since that time, we’re sticking firmly to 2024 and there are three main
phases: First the period at the start of May when RPX went through its assay drama, then the
period with RPX on the Watch List, third last weekend’s note in IKN798 on its resource update
and to borrow from Dylan Thomas, let us begin at the beginning
 IKN781, dated May 5th 2024 and the main Fundamental Analysis note, “Red Pine Exploration
(RPX.v): opportunity knocks”. That day we noted the big sell-off on news that the company
had withdrawn some of its 43-101 compliant resource numbers due to apparent discrepancies
in data. That day we covered things we’re not covering today, so please check out that
edition (or feel free to mail over for a copy of editions 781, 782 and/or 783) for things like the
back story to the Wawa project and a project overview. We also decided to add RPX to our
Watch List that day because the new low price had made it into a potentially interesting
trade.
 IKN782 dated May 12th and the fundies note “Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): The story
develops quickly”. On May 6th, just hours after IKN781 was published, RPX announced more
details of the assay problems they had found. That NR saw a small temporary rebound in the
stock but on Friday May 10th they offered another NR in which it became clear there had
4

been dirty doings and the company may be in serious trouble. The stock tanked again and we
ran another extensive report on the issues.
 IKN783 dated May 19th, and a third main fundamentals note on RPX that began with these
words: “I didn’t expect to run a main fundies feature on this company for three editions on
the trot, but here we are…”, in which we chewed over the developments of that week
including an important Conference Call held by the new team, in which they clarified as much
as they could about the assay rigging issues and explained what they were doing to remedy
the problems. The last paragraph of this third report started with “…Red Pine Exploration
(RPX.v) is and will remain a valid member of our Watch List until further notice”, which sums
thing up.
 Watch List coverage: From that point until last weekend, we kept an eye on RPX via the
Watch List with occasional small comments when required on drill assay NRs and suchlike. It
was all about monitoring and all through that process, we were clear that what RPX needed
to do was 1) give us an updated resource for the Wawa project and 2) run its financing. It
was all about monitoring progress and making sure RPX was worthy of being on the Watch
List, no decisions otherwise.
 IKN798 dated September 1st (i.e. last weekend). In last week’s report we ran “Red Pine
Exploration (RPX.v) delivers a resource update” in the Market Watching section, which took in
the newly announced resource for Wawa. Again, please see last week’s note for more but
here we’ll just add the main resource table as an aide memoire:
We liked the all-categories gold total of 1.685m, we were also suitably intrigued by the
departure from previous assumptions of a purely underground mining operation at the most
developed Jubilee/Minto shear zones and instead, RPX was now proposing a combined mining
operation of open pit and underground. The market gave the new resource its cautious
approval and bought the stock up, but we stuck to our central plan as seen in the last
paragraph of last week’s note:
“We therefore await the upcoming placement, its terms and conditions (and whether
RPX attracts any interesting strategic players). A that point, I’ll be ready to either take
RPX off the Watch List or buy some and add it to the main list.”
Summing all that up, here’s a six-month price chart with notes on where and when…
5

…which brings us to last week and before we get to the placement and pro-forma structure,
there’s the conference call on the morning of last Wednesday September 4th to consider. It
was a useful event and was mostly about CEO Michaud running us through the new resource
and the processes to achieve it, as well as some thoughts on what comes next for RPX at
Wawa. However, the takeaway for me came at the very start, as during the introduction
company Chairperson Paul Martin led out by saying that the team “had no idea why the share
price was as low as it is”, compared to where RPX used to trade. I found that funny, because it
was blatantly obvious why and we made it clear in IKN798 last weekend; the world was waiting
on then financing. Even funnier was to consider Chair Martin’s cutesy naiveté just 24 hours
later, because by then RPX had announced its placement with shares on sale at 9c apiece. It
may have been a small thing, but those are the moves that we do well to store in the memory
bank for the next time Chair Martin gives us his opinions.
With that I think we’re up to date, so we move on to the next subject.
Placement terms and what it means to the share structure: Our next task is to take a
stab at the share structure once the bought deal placement, announced Thursday morning and
immediately upsized to C$9.565m, has closed (that closing slated for October 1st). It’s
something of a moving target and we have to go with best guesses. We begin with what we
know about the current share count (we’re going with one significant figure today). As at end
August, we had this count:
 Shares outstanding: 190.7m
 Options: 7.5m
 Warrants: 19.8m
 FD: 218.0m
Now for the offering announced Thursday, then upsized that same afternoon in this NR (2)
entitled, “RED PINE ANNOUNCES UPSIZE OF PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED “BOUGHT DEAL”
PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO C$9,565,529” (their block caps, not mine)”. We know RPX is selling
22.223m non-flowthru shares at 9c for C$2m, but most of the upsized raising comes from two
different tranches of flow-through shares, with one priced at 10.5c and the other at 12.6c
(different prices due to different tax liabilities) and at this stage, we only know that the
combined tranches are expected to raise another C$7.566m, getting us to the headline number
of the Thursday afternoon NR (8) and don’t know how many of those FT shares will be in each
tranche. Therefore today we run a best guesstimate and assume a blended average of C$0.115
for the totality of the FT shares. However and to complicate matters, there’s also the 15%
overallotment facility on this bought deal and the way in which it was upsized on the same day
suggests that too will be fully filled. If so, we get something like this:
 Non FT shares: 22.223m
 Blended FT share total: 65.79m
 Subtotal: 88.013m (rounded to 88m)
 15% overallotment fully filled: 13.2m
 Total estimated shares sold: 101.2m
There’s one final wrinkle in this moving target, the Compensation Options for the book runners,
they’re 6% of the final total, are price at 9c and while valid for 24 months after the close, are
apparently exercisable immediately. If the above is correct, that would add 6.07m options to
the final fully diluted count and while they’re not paid-up shares, it wouldn’t be a big surprise to
find out on October 31st (the next reporting date for RPX) that at least some of those had been
made whole (and sold into the market by the middlemen, but that’s not our problem for today).
For our purposes, we’ll add those compensation options to the options line item today. And
after all that, we finally get to our estimated share structure box for RPX this weekend,
assumed pro-forma at placement close with overallotment fully taken:
6

NB: ALL SHARE COUNTS ESTIMATED PRO-FORMA AS AT OCT 1ST, 2024
Shares out: 291.9m
Options: 13.6m
Warrants: 19.8m
Fully diluted: 208.528m
Current share price: C$0.105
Market Cap: C$30.65
Approx cash per share: C$0.03
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated.
That’s a significantly bigger number than my 230m or so supposed last weekend, so here’s the
updated share evolution chart (right). Please note
that as the company’s financial year end in July New RPX.v: Shares Out
300
31st, we still haven’t got its YE filings and won’t do 275
for a few weeks yet. We reiterate, this may need 250
225
some adjustment come October and the full 200
175
closure of the bought deal but we’re not going to 150
be far out and with RPX closing the week at 125
100
C$0.105, it gives a pro-forma market cap of 75
50
C$30.65m. Finally, there are those brokers’
25
options to consider but we do like the fact that 0
RPX is running a warrantless placement and that
will help down the line.
What to expect from RPX in 2024 and 2025: Now for the third part of today’s note and
this is more subjective, based on 1) company literature 2) the Conference Call 3) a mail
exchange I’ve had with CEO Michael Michaud over the last couple of days and 4) my own
thoughts and interpretations. Presented in bullet point form for easy digestion.
 Flow-Through means drilling: That over C$7m of this C$9.5m placement will be sold as flow-
through shares is something to take into consideration, as it means the money is going
straight into the ground. That’s a good thing of course and is indicative of what new CEO
Michaud wants to achieve at Wawa. Also, from exchanging with CEO Michaud it’s clear that
his highest priority is to get drilling on the UG parts of the resource, with a focus on targets
both down dip and down plunge at Jubilee and Minto. Along with those targets, the RPX team
wants to expand the program and drill in the southern parts of the (very large and under-
explored) Wawa, with an eye on what he believes are the spots with most blue-sky potential.
 Plenty of news flow coming up: With at least C$8m in clear cash at bank and most of that in
flow-through obligation money, RPX is cashed up and ready to roll. We may see a winter
break during the coldest weeks, but the expanded cash pile from this placement will last them
well into 2025 and give CEO Michaud all the flexibility he needs to out-step, drill under Jubilee
and test outlaying areas.
 The open pit resource is a recent development and from what I gather, they’re still working
out how it might fit into the large game plan. For what it’s worth, the more I’ve thought
about the open-pit resource the more I like the idea and as mentioned quickly in passing last
week, it has the clear potential to be “Wawa’s Mishi”. Over at the Wesdome Eagle mine, its
Mishi underground pit did sterling service in the early days of the operation and until fairly
recently was always on-hand to provide extra, low-grade tonnage for the mill when the
higher-grading UG rock had been processed. This is what Mishi could represent to an
eventual operation at Wawa, a relatively cheap, fast and low capex alternative to provide
early cash flow for the company. That represents a key ingredient in the mix, that of time to
explore and more fully develop the underground potential at Wawa. In the same way Eagle
has turned into a star operation that can run at 25,000oz or 30,000oz of highly profitable gold
per quarter, so Wawa has that potential as long as they can develop the resource and better
understand what lies below the surface of a near-totally blind resource.
7
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source: company filings
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 CEO Michaud is exactly what this company needed. We’ve said this from the start (see
IKN781 thru 783) but it’s worth reiterating, this is as good a fit imaginable for RPX at this
stage. Here’s a highly respected mining pro who held high responsibility positions in one of
the region’s most successful turnaround stories of recent times and who in particular
supervised the development of Eagle to what it is today. There couldn‘t be a better blueprint
for Wawa and Michaud will be able to use his experience and the brains trust of his
assembled team to do something that the Yarie years never managed to achieve, unlock the
real value at Wawa. At least that’s the plan, but he’s already off to a flying start and he
should also be applauded for managing to contain the damage caused by the assay
tampering scandal. The full re-audit of drill results must have been a royal pain to do, but
RPX got it done quickly and has presented the results transparently. Now we have the new
resource as from two weeks ago, we can draw a line until those bad days.
 Wawa is still very cheap on a per-oz basis. At C$30.65m and an all categories 1.685m oz Au,
all categories, the in-situ ounces are priced at C$18.20 each, or U$13.30 if you prefer. While
we know CEO Michaud is keen on adding to that count and putting more C18 ounces onto the
books, he’ll also be looking at ways to improve the overall in-situ value and the easiest way is
to provide a clear pathway to production, thereby re-rating the entire deposit. The single best
way to attract the eventual buyer for Wawa (as we’re all clear about the most obvious exit
strategy, with AGI represented on the RPX board of directors and actively buying up
properties in the region) is to make the ounces increasingly more expensive to buy in-situ and
precipitate an offer.
Other things as well, but that’s enough to set up the last part of today’s note.
A ballpark price target
This is the highly subjective part of today’s note, as after due consideration I’ve taken an
unusual route to put a valuation on RPX at this stage. Following on from that last bullet point
and considering how I’ve warmed to the idea of an eventual Wawa open pit operation providing
the bootstraps to create a larger mine and give RPX (or its eventual operator) both the time
and money to explore and develop the underground mineralization, the idea is to offer a plan
for an open-pit only mine operation for Wawa and value the company on its cash flow.
While certainly odd, 1) Wawa’s true potential is underground 2) the open-pit idea is new even
for the company people and 3) we already know CEO Michaud will be aiming his drill rigs and
that flow-through cash at underground targets at first, I think this could be a way of unlocking
the project and adding quick value to all its ounces, not just the ones mined on an annual basis
in the early years. RPX’s task is to revalue its asset and with early cash flow, not only can they
fund all the underground drilling they could ever care to do, but they’d also prove that a mine is
viable on site and that alone revalues all held ounces. While a new idea, the open-pit resource
makes all the sense in the world as a first foot to greater things, in much the same way as Mishi
allowed Wesdome cash and time to revamp Eagle UG and turn the asset around. Therefore,
I’ve decided to model an open pit at Wawa as an early way of adding value to the project and,
therefore the share price.
If we assume RPX moves to start and open pit operation first, it has a little under 29m tonnes
of resource at its disposal and that’s enough for a big operation feeding a big mill. However,
even a more modest mine and mill running at 2,000 or 3,000 tonnes for day would be a
winning deal. Here’s how the parameters stack up for the indicated-only resource at the Jubilee
Shear:
Resource and production parameters for Jubilee open pit operation
indicated res TPD thruput TPA (350) est Mine Life avg Au g/t recovery % Annual Au prod
14,354,000 2000 700000 20.5 1.72 90% 34,842.4
14,354,000 3000 1050000 13.7 1.72 90% 52,263.7
source: RPX data, IKN ests and calcs
At 2,000 tonnes per day and a mill that runs 350 days per year, you get a long mine life and
just under 35,000 oz per year production. Bump that up to 3,000tpd and you’re running at
52,264 oz per year, or 13k oz Au/qtr. That’s decent money and by applying some USD prices to
8

the 3,000tpd scenario and assuming a fat 20% is taken away by middlemen, here’s what net
sales would come to at various gold prices:
RPX at Wawa: Open pit model (U$m)
price decks U$2000/oz U$2300/oz U$2500/oz U$3000/oz
gold (koz) 52,264 52,264 52,264 52,264
U$/oz 2,000 2,300 2,500 3,000
Au revs (U$m) 104.5 120.2 130.7 156.8
TC/RC (20.9) (24.0) (26.1) (31.4)
Net sales(U$m) 83.6 96.2 104.5 125.4
Sources: RPX data, IKN calcs and ests
You’ll note that I’ve highlighted the U$2,300/oz column as my preferred price deck today.
That’s conservative and a repeated pattern all through the following model. We’ve already seen
an assumption of 20% lost to the buyers, that’s almost certainly way too high for what would
likely be a doré product but again, lowballing assumptions is the way forward.
As for costs, RPX did provide us with some economic parameters for the open-pit resources but
on consulting with CEO Michaud, they may have underestimate the cost of th high strip rate
such a pit shell would entail (around 10:1, as long as the hanging wall material is recovered).
Therefore and in the spirit of being ultra conservative at every juncture today, their $2.70/t
mining cost is my $4.00/t cost. Along with other standard parameters and accounting for the
2.5% NSR on Wawa today, here’s how our condensed income statement comes out:
RPX at Wawa: Open pit condensed income statement (U$m)
case U$2000/oz U$2300/oz U$2500/oz U$3000/oz
Sales (U$m) 83.6 96.2 104.5 125.4
Cash COGS 52.5 52.5 52.5 52.5
Depreciation 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
G&A 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2
fin. Costs 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
royalty 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.1
Op income 1.7 13.6 21.6 41.4
Exploration 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Tax (1.4) 1.3 3.1 7.7
Net income (4.3) 3.9 9.4 23.1
Shares out (m) 300 300 300 300
EPS -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.08
Capex 10 10 10 10
FCF 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.14
Sources: RPX data, IKN estimates
As you can see, I’m making a whole series of financially burdensome adjustments in order to
downplay Wawa Open Pit, yet it still manages to deliver a profitable model.
 At U$40/tonne, costs are much higher than the RPX C$28/t assumption
 At U$2,300/oz, sales minus mine operating costs leave over U$43m on hand to cover a
multitude of ways to spend money.
 Deprecation on a long life open pit mine is probably less than my U$8m annual
average.
 I assume RPX builds a mill and pays U$10m annum in financial costs to pay it down
(they might go a much cheaper route, e.g. toll milling)
 The exploration budget allows the company to drill baby, drill
 Etc
Despite all that, even at U$2,000/oz the open pit op would produce operating profit and be
close to breakeven at corporate level, while U$2,500/oz and above would make the entire
9

company truly profitable on a standalone basis. That’s the beauty of running a high grade open
pit mine.
As for a target price, I’m still not sure if adding this table is a good idea, but in order to round
off the ballpark and add yet another layer of very conservative assumptions, here we go and
please note, ll dollar prices in the table are USD except for the price target, which has been
adjusted into Loonies:
Sales & earnings model U$/oz Au prices Target price & valuation data for RPX based on
Ag spot (U$) stress base current bluesky model year economics
Sales (U$m) 81.5 93.8 101.9 122.3 12-month target C$0.20 based on 2x FCF
Upside to target 97% and U$2300/oz Au
EPS -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.08 Mkt cap (C$m) $25 Enterprise value ($53)
FCF 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.14 P/sales (stress) 0.27 EV/sales (stress) -0.57
P/E (stress) -6.9 EV/EBITDA (stress) -5.5
P/E (base) 7.7 EV/EBITDA (base) -2.5
P/E (current) 3.2 EV/EBITDA (current) -1.8
Note above all that we’re assuming a very low 2X multiple to free cash flow, taking into account
the early stage of this resource compared to when my model could ever become reality.
However, what I think this shows more than anything else is that a pathway to early production
would revalue all in-situ ounces, essentially doubling them. This is why I’ve gone this direction
with the model, as in the real world any open pit mine would only be the first stage of many
others as Wawa is built out as a bona fide operation. And as those ounces increase in value, so
will the interest in buying RPX out and at some point the most obvious potential buyer will
make their move. That’s the real exit strategy for this trade and why I’m long as from this
coming week.
Conclusion: With the announcement of its bought deal placement last week and the reception
given to the financing by the market, Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) added the missing piece to
this puzzle and after watching it for as long as I have, it’s time to make a real call. There’s a lot
to like here, including the opportunity to buy at a discount (via the bought deal or on the open
market) from now until the end of the month, the new management that has added the market
gravitas and brains trust required, the cash now available to prove up the resource and the
potential this team has to add ounces quickly, grow the resource and put together a cogent
mine plan that makes for a profitable underground development. I’m a buyer of RPX and the
stock will be part of the main Stocks to Follow list as from next weekend.
Stocks to Follow
A painful week for the Stocks to Follow list, as not only was there a long list of losers, but the
only winners on the table came from stocks I’m watching and don’t own. Ugh. Anyway, we’re
currently one over the self-imposed maximum at 21 open positions, something we’ll address
soon enough (promise). Of those 21, just three were week-over-week winners (FTZ.v, PGDC.v,
PAU.cse) and of those, Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v up 40.0%) was the biggest move by far. One
other stock remained unchanged (MIRL.cse) and that means 17 losers, a big and ugly total.
There were four double figure percentage losers among them, namely Mene Inc (MENE.v down
16.0%), Contango ORE (CTGO down 11.9%), SilverCrest (SILV down 10.6%) and American
Eagle (AE.v down 10.3%). Another painful drop to add to those was the 8.3% lost by Eldorado
Gold (EGO), more than the average Tier 2 producer (as seen in Producer Basket, below).
We’re at a full complement, with 20 open positions on our Stocks to Follow list, that’s our self-
imposed maximum. Eleven of those are in the green, one is UNCH, eight are in the red.
10

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.24 14.3% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.51 -31.3% Momentum now building
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$7.39 7.1% Quality Ag/Au, U$12.96 tgt
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$15.82 -4.4% new trade, finally long
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.53 -0.7% return, (re)starter position
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$3.87 26.9% Quality Cu developer
American Eagle AE.v SPEC BUY C$0.43 21-Jul-24 C$0.395 -8.1% new Cu trade, near-term flip
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.29 41.5% Cheap Au in West Africa
Bear Creek Min BCM.v SPEC BUY C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.31 -11.4% Spec Ag(& Au) trade, 2 buys
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.125 -34.2% Overweight position,cheap Cu
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.05 -16.7% Exposed to several good jrs
Contango Ore CTGO hold U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$18.96 1.4% Production re-rate in Q3
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v hold C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.52 -17.5% under offer, will hold thru
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.89 23.6% into FY24 news season now
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.19 -36.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Red Pine Expl RPX.v BUYING C$0.08 4-May-24 C$0.105 31.3% Buying on re-vamp
Fitzroy Min FTZ.v WATCH C$0.17 4-Aug-24 C$0.17 0.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.035 75.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.09 5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.105 -78.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): We knew they would do it and it’s something of a relief to see Luke
Alexander & Co doing it in the first week of the Financing Window and getting the job done on
Thursday, September 5th (3):
Vancouver, BC – Newcore Gold Ltd. ("Newcore" or the “Company”) (TSX-V: NCAU, OTCQX:
NCAUF) (TSX-V: NCAU, OTCQX: NCAUF) is pleased to announce a non-brokered private placement
financing under the Listed Issuer Financing Exemption (as defined below), whereby the Company
intends to raise up to $5,000,000 through an offering of up to 17,241,380 units of the Company (the
"Units") to be priced at $0.29 per Unit (the "Offering"). The securities offered under the Listed Issuer
Financing Exemption will not be subject to a hold period in accordance with applicable Canadian
securities laws.
Each Unit will consist of one common share in the capital of the Company (each, a "Common Share")
and one-half of one Common Share purchase warrant (each whole warrant, a "Warrant"). Each
Warrant will entitle the holder thereof to purchase one Common Share of the Company at an exercise
price of $0.40 per Common Share for a period of 12 months following the completion of the Offering.
11

However, better news was to come on Friday (4):
Newcore Gold Announces Upsize of Private Placement Financing
Not the biggest upsize ever, as NCAU is now raising C$5.5m in gross proceeds by selling
another 10% (total 18,965,518) units, but it’s indicative that the main $5m was popular out of
the gate and NCAU has the green light from its long list of tight-hand insto holders. However,
we should be clear that the terms of the deal include no holding period and a half warrant, so
once it closes (September 26th slated) we may see selling pressure from any desk that decides
to clip the warrant. That’s part of the game. As for use of proceeds, the offering document
informs us that working cap is still at a reasonably decent C$3.85m as at end August…
…and when we add the incoming cash, NCAU proposes to spend it as follows:
Fair enough, and the upsized offering leaves a
million in the back pocket. Overall, we’re happy to
see the peppy reception to this raising and as
NCAU “only” lost 1.5c on the week and closed at
the offering price, it would take a serious gold
price dumpage to see this go much lower.
Not all placement financings are the same and
NCAU’s news last week is a net positive for this
story. Nice job, Mr. Luke.
American Eagle (AE.v): If you recall, I was the guy last weekend that was happy to be in at
43c and while prepared for a penny or two lower, didn’t think there was much downside left:
I was wrong.
12

In fact, the trade theory is still intact aside from the err…”small detail” charted above, rthere’s
no real change. For sure AE dumped, but it did so with the rest of the copper sector and as one
of the leading spec explorecos at present it was always going to be among the most volatile.
However, this trade is all about being on at this cheap price before the next set of drill holes are
published and with at least 15 holes to come, we have multiple opportunities (and NRs) to get a
rebound. It’ll only take one hole.
Patagonia Gold (PGDC.v): The only true bright spot on the entire table, PGDC reacted well
to the news from Rio Negro two Fridays ago but as the ten-day chart (right), even then it’s
more about price, less about volume and real interest in the stock and its story. Up 40% is
good of course, but even the near-300k trade that made
the difference on Friday morning adds up to just a little
over ten thousand Canadian dollars, very little in real
terms. However, there is a feeling that the main problem
is a lack of sellers and volume will comes once the stock
climbs a little higher.
We decided to put this on the Watch List and that’s still
the right place for this potential trade, eye-catching +75%
gain or not. The IKN Weekly isn’t into “paper trades” or
theoretical wins and while the reasons to follow this stock
have turned out as planned so far, there’s very little
opportunity to but even a small amount in real life and so the best course of action will be to
continue to follow its fortunes from the sidelines. A stock controlled by two large backers, we’d
expect PDGC to raise capital on terms that suit those players and at that point, we’ll be able to
ascertain whether there’s a trade for minnow like me. I’m not stopping you from trying to get in
at this level and if you do, I doff my cap. But for real world purposes, I’ll simply continue to
monitor from outside until we have something akin to a tradable stock.
Please see below in Regional Politics for a little more on the backdrop to that August 30th
decision and the mood in Rio Negro now, we’ll leave you here with the Calcatreu resource table
so show what the fuss is about:
At 2,000tpd, the grade from the main Vein 49 zone indicates production of around 50,000 oz
gold per year with overall operating costs lowered considerably by that strong silver kicker. As
mentioned before, there’s plenty to like here,
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): We run the overview “liquid-ish” valuation chart and are done this week:
13

OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.39 4.56 1.8
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.09 0.01 0.0
ARIC.v 8.33 0.49 4.08 1.6
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.29 1.21 0.5
QCCU.v 5.06 0.115 0.58 0.2
MIS.cse 24.71 0.03 0.74 0.3
Curprum privco 29.50 0.12 3.54 1.4
subtotal 14.72 5.9
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 16.22 6.5
At 247.714 S/O
As OCI fluctuated between 5c and 5.5c on the week, the weekend’s close was reasonable and
reflects the drop in both AE and ARIC prices. It also shows how this stock provides the
exposure to those spec plays while limiting potential downside.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): Generally speaking, I can live with the drops suffered last
week by companies in the Stocks to Follow list, even the larger percentage drops such as
CTGO, SILV and AE, what with them being volatile by
nature. But the 8.3% dump in EGO last week really
annoyed me. This is the company that stands out
from the rest of the Tier 2 pack thanks to its strong
and profitable operations, quickly improving balance
sheet and organic growth pipeline. But no, it wasn’t
just hit along with the others but whacked more than
the median, as seen in the chart (right) vs GDX.
The idea of adding EGO to a list based firmly around
the smaller, junior end of the mining market was to
supply an anchor, a firm foundation for the personal
portfolio. Instead, the darned position is back
underwater with gold still at 2.5k/oz (give or take three dollars).
SilverCrest (SILV): While the outsized drop in EGO is annoying and has me questioning my
relative analytic capabilities (once again), the selling in SILV is merely amusing:
The selling Friday was across the board, silver was weaker than gold, its dependent stocks were
going to get it in the neck but the turbocharged dumping of SILV into the Friday close shaved
an extra 2% off its price and makes it look standout
cheap this weekend. The most reliable benchmark to SILV: EPS and Mine Op Inc per share, per qtr
value SILV going forward is its mine operating
income and our current 29c/share estimate for the
current quarter may turn out to be low, what with
gold trading well above our U$2,300/oz assumed 14 71.0
10.0
21.0
81.0 81.0 42.0 61.0 62.0 12.0 62.0 42.0 52.0 32.0 52.0
40.0
82.0 82.0 92.0 92.0 03.0
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15 0.10
0.05
0.00
22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
U$/share
EPS
MOI
source: company filings, IKN calcs

received price. But even so, this weekend’s U$7.39 implies a 6.5X multiple to MOI and if that
goes up 50%, nobody would bat an eyelid.
I got my shares at an average of U$6.90 after procrastinating for almost a year and letting the
best prices disappear in the rear-view mirror, but once in I’ve thought my entry wasn’t so bad
after all. This provides an opportunity to get in at almost the same price, so if you’re looking to
add quality silver exposure and aren’t long SILV yet, this is your chance. Looking at you, RS .
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Down half a penny on the week and another news multi-year low,
but on the whole it could have been worse:
Just like the rest of the sector, MAI couldn’t avoid the weakness into Friday’s close but apart
from that, patchy volume and flat lining prices are probably what the doctor ordered and
indicated seller exhaustion. Please see Regional Politics below for a little more insight on the
Mexico open pit hoo-hah. When the wider world realizes how much of a tempest in a teacup all
this has been, the pressure will be off MAI and other stocks like it. Then when the world
realizes Sheinbaum wasn’t joking when she published what she published in her manifesto and
that permits will start to roll out again during her term…well, you know what I think of this
company’s upside potential. However, even without all that we’re going to see better results
from the Santana Plan B as from Q4. Sorry haters, still holding.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-six weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 3.17% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1786.04 9.56 33.5%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 422.38 2.61 -36.8%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 360.34 3.87 12.8%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.519 260.95 8.84 -25.1%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 177.95 1.63 -6.9%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 151.14 0.89 0.0%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 149.45 0.73 15.9%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 122.43 0.53 -61.6%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 82.92 0.35 -6.7%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 45.53 0.39 50.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 119.31 34.00 0.285 58.3%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 25.57 0.40 -31.0%
13 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 20.42 0.33 -45.9%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 19.98 0.115 -4.2%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 12.40 0.06 -14.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -3.17%
15

Miners of all types sold off last week, but the copper exploreco sub-sector got hit worse than
nearly any other sector (outside of uranium perhaps) and that’s shows clearly in our
representative Copper Basket, where it was near-total carnage. The result is a basket average
back in the red for the first time since March and just five of our fifteen stocks left with green
ink, quite the turnaround from the end of May when nice were in the green and the average
was bolstered by the +180% YTD printed by AE.
So before sifting through the wreckage, a The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
25%
cheer for our only winner on the week, C3
20%
Metals (CCCM.v up 3.1%) and half a cheer for
15%
the unchanged Camino (COR.v). That leaves
10%
13 losers and we’ll only list the double figure
5%
percentage losses, so here we go: Hercules
0%
(BIG.v down 20.9%), Solaris (SLS.to down
18.4%), QC Copper (QCCU.v down 14.8%), -5%
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to down 13.8%), -10%
NGEx (NGEX.to down 12.9%), American Eagle
(AE.v down 10.3%).
The driver of the selling was of course copper-the-metal, which combined with the Friday sell-
off in equities of all types and left copper explorecos without bids. However, the impression I
got was of panicky selling, less orderly
than in other mining sub-sectors. The
extent of the losses compared to a metal
that easily held the U$4.00/lb line (unlike
early last month) has all the hallmarks of
overselling to me.
This week’s curated copper comment is a
useful link (5) because it covers the two
subjects that I wanted to mention in the
space of a couple of paragraphs. First, this
from that mysterious group of suited and
booted phantasms knows as “Citi
Analysts” who “said in a note”…
“With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to start cutting rates this month, investor focus is on the size
and speed of cuts and their effect on the dollar’s strength.
Wile markets are pricing a first fed cut this month, we think more time will need to pass for stronger physical
and financial data to emerge and convince investors to meaningfully rebuild positions in metals as aglobal
growth rebound proxy,” Citi added.
The reasons for the lag from Fed cut to any effect on Dr. Copper are up for debate, but I think
Citi is right in calling for a lag between policy and real world results. However, anything the Fed
does for copper can be trumped in moments by a policy decision out of China and that’s worth
remembering. Sorry USA, you’re not the lead in everything and to underscore that, this:
“…the Yangshan premium of $62 a ton, having swung from a discount in July – suggests more robust
copper demand in China, which is approaching a holiday period this month and next.”
Copper bears made a lot of the way concentrate premiums went to zero, even negative for a
moment, at the start of the Northern summer. Now at the back end, the standard import
premium is back and while not as strong as this time last year, it’s still a positive indicator from
the smelters. We now move to our regular weekly look at world copper inventories, data as
usual Cochilco
 More drawdowns to report this week, that’s good for the copper world. The aggregate
of the three official world inventory systems dropped by a sizeable 29,721 metric
tonnes (mt), with Friday’s close totaling 569,343mt.
16
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8
source: IKN calcs

 The main event was SHFE copper inventories, which finally put in the type of sizeable
leg down we’d expect in a de-stocking cycle, even though it’s coming several months
late this year. Copper stocks dropped by 26,371mt to close at 215,374mt and the visual
effect on the dedicated SFHE charts (below) is clea.
 Meanwhile and perhaps as important, LME tonnages dropped by 3,350mt last week to
close Friday at 317,575mt. We’d noted a slowdown in additions last week compared to
the summer build, this week we have our first reversal and most notably, the 7,175mt
of copper that left its South Korea warehouses after the 5k+ add of the previous week.
More signs of Asia demand pick-up.
 Comex added 101mt to close at 36,394mt. Less comment this week compared to last,
but we’re keeping a watching brief on the recent sharp increases.
We’re running both dedicated SHFE charts this week, with the first one showing how, at long
last, the 2024 squiggly line is descending toward a more typical level for the time of year. Ther
second chart is the long-term indicator and while we’re finally getting the typical stock drop,
there shape is far more rounded and less of a sharp spike this time around, indicative of the
amount of time SHFE copper stocks stayed above 300kmt in 2024.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91 ht11
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): Our note last
week “The Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) Cactus
Project PEA: Met matters” laid out the case
against ASCU’s recently filed PEA and since then
(chart right) while most of the copper stocks had
a negative week and ASCU could be classed as “in
the bunch”, it dropped more than most and things
would have been 3% or 4% worse if it weren’t for
some support trades coming end Friday to push
the stock back over the 6-line. It’s fair to say

ASCU got no momentum from anyone who sat down to peruse and read the 43-101 over the
weekend before last. However and we remind readers, ASCU is one of those stocks favoured by
the “high traffic influencer” brigade (to put it as nicely as possible) and with Beaver Creek
coming up this week, a pro-ASCU whispering campaign wouldn’t surprise much. You might
want to trade around this stock, but I prefer to simplify my life and avoid until next year’s PFS.
QC Copper (QCCU.v): I don’t need to remind long-term readers about the two-plus years of
flatline drudge QCCU has offered us:
However, there is one small upside to that boring, painful chart:
We now know the price printed at Friday’s close is very buyable if you feel like flipping a few
back to the market for a quick 15% or 20%.
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): While SLS isn’t the only copper stock with 30% or 40% YTD
losses, there’s a difference in the amount of absolute dollar value that’s been burned away. At
the top of its run when April became May, SLS was a C$1Bn market capper and that’s down to
this weekend’s C$422m and a serious black eye for this sub-sector. Rich people do not like
getting turned into poor people, especially when the vehicle in question was the polar opposite
of transparent about its CSR weaknesses. As they say round these parts, “la mentira tiene patas
cortas” (lies have short legs).
NGEx Minerals (NGEX.to): Look I don’t want to be seen as the guy who’s always dunking on
NGEX, as I only ever seem to mention the stock here
in notes when it’s dropped in price and that’s not fair
at all. I do actually get why it’s been popular recently
and over the long-term, it might not be the worst
strategy ever to simply bet blindly on everything the
Lundins do. However, if you map NGEX against the
Lundin stock that’s really under offer and has BHP
saying what it’s worth, instead of market spec players,
you see that its recent run got NGEX within single
figures of the move made by Filo Corp (FIL.to) and
that’s a little crazy.
18

The day NGEX explains how Lunahuasi works with Los Helados when they are literally in
different countries is the day I might care more, until then it’s two separate projects; one of
them very large, but low grade and the high capex generates an uninspiring IRR. Meanwhile,
the other is promising but there’s an awful lot of work to do before it’s anywhere close to the
development level of Filo de Sol, let alone Josemaria. Obviously NGEX is worth plenty of money
as an asset today but there are limits and the recent run was too much too soon. So call me a
Lundin-Hater if you must, I’ll survive.
The Producer Basket
After 36 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 26.93% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 58.02 50.34 21.6%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 38.29 76.89 40.2%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 33.36 19.00 5.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 22.65 117.88 6.4%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 6.79 18.62 14.0%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.883 4.56 19.10 51.1%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.37 5.45 13.3%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.20 15.82 22.0%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.66 9.23 43.5%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.32 8.87 52.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 26.93%
Thud. It was already a tough week when the metals market
opened sharply down on Tuesday after the Labo(u)r Day
break, as seen in this ten-day chart of GDX vs GDXJ, but the
real pain happened on Friday on the back of the Jobs Report
(see intro) and to add insult to injury, came one day after
the light relief of Thursday and the selling spree feel even
worse. The result was a GDx down 6.0% on the week, a
GDXJ down 7.3% and all ten of our stocks dropped in line
with those numbers. The least worst on our list were the
defensive Franco-Nevada (FNV down 3.5%) and the
currently fashionable Lundin Gold (LUGDF down 4.8%), the
worst drops came from “the silvers” (PAAS down 7.9%), HL
down 8.1%) but bottom of the pile was the 8.3% lost by Eldorado (EGO) and I’m not happy
about that one little bit.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
40% comparative to GDX control
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Regarding our semi-serious race against the benchmark GDX, our list lost 1.08% due to its
weighting toward the “J” side of the market and those silver-exposed plays. We’re still 9.81%
ahead of the rival, though.
19
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2.0%
ikn 0.0%
gdx control -2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
source: IKN calcs -14.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

As for the week’s action in the producers, at least we can point to the relatively uniform way in
which the ten charges dropped, very much in line with GDX/J and indicative of a market that
was sold by the top-down money that usually sloshes in and out of the ETFs and tracking
indices, rather than for any particular company-specific reason or in/out of a specific stock.
Couple that with the way gold held the U$2,500/oz line successfully even under the pressure of
Friday morning (give or take a couple of dollars and overall, it felt a little over-panicky on
Friday, a bit too much like a large herd trying to squeeze through a small gate all at once. If so,
we should see the overselling unwind this coming week. Feel free to laugh at my optimism.
You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat.
Losing after great striving is the story of man, who was born to sorrow,
whose sweetest songs tell of saddest thought, and who, if he is a hero,
does nothing in life as becomingly as leaving it.
The Boys of Summer, 1972, Roger Kahn
Enough beating stock up on the Friday action, so no specific stocks picked out for the notes
here today. Instead, this chart (right) that takes in the arc of the Northern summer and how it’s
treated precious metals stocks. Surprisingly (at least for me), last week’s pain has only dragged
most of the gold stocks back to the UNCH-
or-thereabouts level compared to the start
of July. We see that in the three squiggly
lines picked as examples, with GDX, EGO
and WDOFF chosen as typical examples (I
left out Newmont (NEM) and its +15%
rebound in the same period).
However, we also see a couple of silver
stocks and how they’ve had a harder time,
with my preference SilverCrest (SILV) doing
no better than the sector headliner and
2024 basket component Pan American
(PAAS) however, it could have been worse.
Ask anyone in First Majestic (AG).
Flippancy aside, he precious metals mining sector may have been getting a worse rap than it
deserves over the summer period and we are bound to repeat the message laid out in recent
intro sections, including today: U$2,500/oz gold means these companies are making money
hand-over-fist and when that happens, the M&A cycle gets into gear. So unless you think gold
is about to dump, these are stocks to buy on dips and last week was just that.
The TinyCaps List
After 36 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 41.96% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 252.95 27.82 0.11 69.2%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 86.798 42.53 0.49 263.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 28.35 0.265 55.9%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 22.52 0.15 -16.7%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 4.43 0.05 -50.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 7.15 0.10 33.3%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 12.12 0.17 30.8%
South Star STS.v 0.750 52.64 32.11 0.61 -18.7%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 37.02 0.13 44.4%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 15.39 0.13 8.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 41.96%
20

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A heavy drop for the basket average of nearly 12% and this weekend’s +41.96% is the lowest
since March 24th as the basket shot higher on the
back of the big Awalé move along with other
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
springers later. Just one of our ten stocks gave a 100%
90%
week-over-week win, that was Latin Metals (LMS.v) 80%
70%
up 25.0% in extremely thing trading that was lucky
60%
to hold through the week (it was only disinterest 50%
40%
that allowed the paper win, expect it to drop just as
30%
fast). The other nine were losers, including the big 20%
losses recorded by Aston Bay (BAY.v down 21.4%) 10%
0%
and four other stocks that lost teens-percentages
(KLDC, VAU, DMX, EDG).
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): A mistake last week, as I denoted the dollars held and reporting
currency of ARIC as Canadian and that’s wrong, this company reports in US Dollars, so that
means (for example) that and as at June 30th it cash position was U$9m minus loose change,
not the C$ I wrote last week. As for trading, this stock lost another 3c and closed under the 50c
line again, not quite its lowest print since the March drill assays changed this game but pretty
darned close. No assays forthcoming last week, even though we know they are due to drop so
it’s likely we’ll see them coincide with the Beaver Creek bunfest next week. Eyes on the wires.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): Your author had an interest Zoom hour with PA Andrew Thomson and
the new(ish) VP Ex arrived early this year, Alvaro Fernandez-Baca (who finally managed to
escape from Tinka Resources). We went over the whole of the current asset suite and what
they intend to achieve at its recently incorporated concession zone in the North of Peru
(basically a neighbour play to one of the prime Hannan concessions), its Galena property near
the Aftermath Silver Berenguela project in South Peru, as well as touching on the plans for PA’s
sister company Winshear (WINS.v), which should start mobilizing to drill using helicopter
support later this month. But the main event was the drill program currently taking place at its
flagship Usicayos property in South Peru in the denominated “Puno Orogenic Belt” and
specifically the first two holes put into the Sol de Oro target. The need to know is:
21
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

 First hole is complete and at the labs
 Second hole is underway
 They’ve hit the mineralized zones they expected to hit with both holes
 Results in a couple of weeks, or perhaps early October
We spent time talking about the target, essentially four Shear zones stacked on upon each
other, visible from surface on the side of a hill, and at a gentle decline grade which makes them
almost like mantos (in fact, they referred to them as such on a couple of occasions). These first
two drill holes could have targeted all four shear/manto zones but that would have made the
inaugural holes over 800m long. Instead, the team decided to run the first holes as proof of
concept and aim for the first two zones of mineralization only, then if successful they could test
the two lower laying zones from a different pad more easily. Therefore, they aimed for two
manto/shears and hit them both with the first hole, with manto/shear #1 around 30m width
and #2 around 70m width. The core is at the lab and should be back before the end of this
month, then Hole 2 is right behind. They gave no idea of grade, but we already know that zone
has grab and chip samples from surface grading typically at 3g and 4g/t gold, with outliers at
10g/t and above. If they can cut wide zones of 3g or 4g gold on the first attempt, that would
definitely count as concept proven. It’s also one of those situations where of the Hole 1 returns
are great, they’d probably announce results immediately and if not, we’d get one NR a little
later with both holes reported.
Well funded, a good team assembled, tight share structure with most shares held by tight-
handed insiders and finally drilling on a high priority target, there’s plenty to like about PA
today. Much will depend on these first two assay results, watching closely and wishing them
fortune but will wait on the sidelines to see how those assays come in.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Conference season in North and South America
We’re now into one of the standard time windows for mining conferences and this week we
have two of the main events for North America’s mining scene. First up is the The Precious
Metals Summit Beaver Creek event, this year running from this Tuesday September 10th to
Friday September 13th. Here’s the website for that one (6) and it’s a useful link, as the show
links to all the company presentations (delayed by a few hours) and once it’s done, there’s
plenty of fodder to chew on. Once Beaver Creek is done, the circus moves about three or four
hours Southeast to Colorado Springs and the 2024 Gold Forum Americas event website here
(7)), commonly known as the Denver Gold Show, arguably the premier event of the year for
the Tier 1 and Tier 2 precious metals mining companies (as well as the assorted hangers-on).
That starts next Sunday September 15th and runs to the 18th, expect the industry names to
get their faces and thoughts on a website near you.
But it’s not just Beaver Creek and Denver Gold on the industry’s agendas, as South America
also has its gatherings. Chief among them is on September 11th to 13th and Peru’s Expomina
Conference (8), with the great and good of its mining world in attendance. The biannual
Perumin conference in Arequipa is definitely bigger in terms of attendance numbers (it’s
arguably the biggest mining event in Latin America and rivals PDAC in size), but its set-up is
geared toward industry suppliers and is more of a trade show for companies that want to sell
widgets large and small to mining companies. Meanwhile the annual Expomina event held in
Lima is probably more important and influential for the gathering, the policy speeches and the
amount of business done by mining companies with other mining companies. This year’s event
includes keynote speeches by the Minister of Energy and Mining, his Vice of Mining, the CEOs
and/or country heads of a long list of companies and mines such as First Quantum,
Buenaventura, Gold Fields (its country head Luis Rivera is Expomina president this year),
22

Antofagasta (that one has an interesting title), Anglo American, the Zafranal project (Teck,
another one to watch), Pan American, Antamina and the list continues. To that, we add a
sprinkling of local political figures and economics eggheads. As for subjects, the program shows
plenty of presentations and at least one of the round tables focused on the tricky Peruvian
subject of community relations and social acceptance of mining projects and operations. Your
author will monitor the event and report back next week on anything interesting.
Ecuador: Concession corruption
Fun and games in Ecuador’s mining sector on Tuesday, when prosecutors with search warrants
raided the offices of the Ministry of Energy, the vice-ministry of mining and the agency in
charge of mining control and regulation, seizing documents they say are connected to the illegal
and irregular granting of mining concessions in Ecuador. The raids were done in conjunction
with the Noboa government and with the backing of the current Veep of Mining, who made the
necessary “We Will Combat Corruption Wherever We Find It” type declarations to the press (9).
This raid comes one month after Ecuador reorganized its mining licence system, making it
central to Quito after reports regional offices were taking bribes in exchange for the granting of
export licences (10), thereby allowing illegal/artisan miners to seel their wares “legally”.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen accusations of high-level corruption in Ecuador’s mining
ministry, as back in 2019 the then Vice Minister Javier Cordova was fired and charges filed
against him for bribery and illicit gains (of over a million dollars), a case that Cordova has
managed to delay and foot-drag until today. This is, of course, the same Javier Cordova who
was in charge of Soma Gold (SOMA.v) in Colombia until an Interpol arrest warrant was filed
against him. Since leaving SOMA, he’s been hiding in Miami USA.
More Argentina and more Rio Negro
The non-binding but politically important approval given by locals to the Patagonia Gold
(PGDC.v) Calcatreu mine ten days ago has brought a new wave of debate on mining to the
regional press in Argentina, with environmentalists running a rearguard action to try to put
pressure on Rio Negro governor Alberto Weretilneck and stop him from officially permitting the
mine. Interestingly, a lot of the left wing pressure is coming from Chubut, the province to the
South of Rio Negro (Calcatreu is close to the western border between the provinces), as they
fear economic development just to the North would bring new eyes on the Navidad project (on
the same geological trend) and open the door once again to mining development there.
One thing is for sure, Governor Weretilnack is going to permit Calcatreu and after that, we’ll see
how PGDC goes about raising the capital for its mine. The anti-mining people will probably try
the same strategy they used in Chubut around the Navidad permit drama, i.e. try to pressure
the provincial government via protests and marches in the provincial capital (Viedma, pop
60,000 and approx 10% of the total province) but in this case, the distance from the West and
the overwhelming approval of locals for the project give Weretilneck strong cards (and weaken
the anti-mining cause significantly.
More Mexico open pit mining politics
As much as I’d like to give this subject a rest for a week, we’re here again and this time, three
items that aim to show why the Mexico Mining Armageddon talk we’ve been hearing is such a
reach.
First up, last week saw the installation of the new Congress upper and lower houses, with the
#1 item on the agenda of the Lower House being the big judicial reform law bill, arguably the
centerpiece of AMLO’s “Plan C” constitutional reform package. The opposition to AMLO are
trying whatever they can to halt or delay proceedings and on this score, they’ve brought in the
current judiciary in Mexico that doesn’t want their system to be upset/revamped and the new
move is to attempt to declare proceedings illegal from the law courts, thereby stopping (or
delaying) the lower house. All this is unconnected to the mining law that we mining FDI people
are following, but it matters to us because according to the current agenda, the lower house
won’t debate that mining law bill before the judicial reform bill is treated and sent to the upper
23

house. The longer these things are delayed, the nearer we are to October 1st when the
Sheinbaum government takes over.
Second up today, the lobbying process from the pro-mining camp continues. For example last
week, the Mexico Mining Forum 2024 was held in Mexico’s Capital City (DF Mexico), with plenty
of the country’s mining glitterati present, including Pedro Rivero, president of Mexico’s main
chamber of mining Camimex, gave a presentation entitled “Charting New Horizons.” As well as
confirming that Camimex was doing the rounds in the new Congress to explain the benefits of
mining, the way modern open-pit mines are nearly always good environmental citizens and
also, safer workplaces than underground operations, he said Camimex was also pointing out the
dangers posed to regional and national economies from a blanket ban on open-pit mining, what
it would mean for job losses, balance of payments etc etc. But then in comments made after
the presentation, he had this to say (translated (11)):
”I think the most important thing is to remain calm…I see (political) room with authorities to seek
common ground with those legislators that listen. I don’t think it’s the time to guarantee
absolutely anything…it’s all still in discussion phase and will continue in conversation, I therefore
invite you to join in constructive promotion of our industry so that the conversation can continue.”
That’s far from the “Mexico About To Ban Mining” message we’re getting from the average
fearmonger and points to a longer debate with reasoning and nuance, a far cry from that
committee decision last month to send a militant law bill for debate by the chambers.
Switching gears, please recall our main focus on the mining bill is the upper house, as we know
that due to the big Morena party majority the lower house will pass whatever it eventually
approves and votes on. Therefore, the moves and shakes in Senate are more important for the
mining bill and on that, Wednesday saw the election of the new president of the Senate Mining
Commission (the upper chamber committee on mining matters), one Lorenia Valles Sampedro
from the Morena ruling party. Though her education and employment backgrounds are not
mining (her degree is in tourism), she is from the mining-intensive Sonora State and has been a
public servant/political player in Sonora for over 25 years, therefore she’ll know all about the
importance of mining to her home State. Here prepared comments on accepting the new role
(and important one in the Senate, we should add) were reported by regional newspaper DS de
Sonora like this (12):
“Ms Valles Sampedro’s vision is clear: “We cannot speak of a rich mining industry when its
workers are poor.” Her committee will look to reinforce economic development goes hand in
hand with social development, to make sure that progress in the mining sector does not happen
at the cost of its employees.
“For this, the Senator committed to work in coordination with (Sonora) governor Alfonso Durazo
and the President of the Republic, Claudia Shienbaum, to continue to boost economic
development in Sonora and guarantee that the region’s families live with dignity.”
When one considers that 80% of mineworkers in Sonora are employed in open pit mines, it’s
extremely difficult to see how any bill that would leave them out of work in the stroke of a pen
passes this committee desk.
Next and on the subject of the Senate make-up, I got a mail from reader ‘JM’ this week which
included this question and comment
Do you by chance have a list of those senators by state and to which
allegiance they fall under? Would be interesting to know of the 83 Morena
Party Senators (I think that is the count now) how many of those are from
mining states and more likely to not vote in favor of bans? Just curious if you
had that information.
As noted last week, it’s all about how far the rabbit hole of Mexican politics you (or I) want to
go, the holes are deep with no end of side tunnels to explore, but hey yeah let’s do this one.
For our purposes I’ve focused on six important mining states, rather than get cute and include
anywhere that has a mine so in order of national GDP importance, the big four States are
Zacatecas, Sonora, Chihuahua and Durango. To those I add Guanajuato and San Luis Potosí, as
24

they may have a smaller total share of Federal mining GDP but they are less densely populated
and mining is important to local communities for both economic and historical reasons. We can
debate other States if you want, but I prefer to leave out regions such as Guerrero, Estado de
Mexico and Oaxaca as even though they all have developed mining industries, their politics are
driven by other issues than mining. Therefore, here’s an overview of the count followed by the
names and political parties of the Senators in the six that matter:
Overview
 Total seats: 18
 Morena: 9
 Morena Allies: 3
 Total Government Coalition: 12
 Total Opposition: 6
Chihuahua:
 Andrea Chávez Treviño (MORENA)
 Juan Carlos Loera de la Rosa (MORENA)
 Mario Vázquez Robles (PAN)
Durango:
 Alejandro González Yañez (PT) (Morena ally)
 Margarita Valdéz Martinez (MORENA)
 Gina Campuzano González (PAN)
Guanajuato:
 Ricardo Sheffield Padilla (MORENA)
 Virginia Magaña Fonseca (MORENA)
 Miguel Márquez Márquez (PAN)
San Luis Potosí:
 Ruith González Silva (VERDE) (Morena ally)
 Gilberto Hernández Villafuerte (VERDE) (Morena ally)
 Verónica Rodriguez Hernández (PAN)
Sonora:
 Lorenia Valles Sampedro (MORENA)
 Heriberto Aguilar Castillo (MORENA)
 Manlio Fabio Beltrones (PRI)
Zacatecas:
 Verónica Díaz Robles (MORENA)
 Saúl Monreal Ávila (MORENA)
 Claudia Anaya Mota (PRI)
Therefore, the fear-monger headlines you’ve been fed have all highlighted the Morena coalition
is only one Senate vote away from supermajority, but among that coalition there are 12
senators that would face major flak if they voted for the ban on open pit mining from their
constituents (and the State governor, for that matter). From here it’s nuance and educated
guesswork, because the more militant and Eco-Warrior on the list are capable of digging in a nd
voting against open pit mines on personal conviction, but even in a worst-case scenario I
cannot any more than six of those Morena-aligned 12 seats voting for the ban on open pit
mining…and one would be more than enough. Also, please note that these people do not have
to vote against the measure, it would be sufficient to abstain or simply “forget” to be in the
Senate house at the time of the vote. And to add a little cherry on this cake, last week also saw
the first lost seat for Morena in the Senate, when elected Senator Marcelo Ebrard stood down
his seat in order to join the Sheinbaum executive as her Secretary (Minister) of Finance. In his
place comes one Emmanuel Reyes Carmona, who hails from the opposition PRD party. That
means one vote less if push comes to shove.
25

Bottom line: There are better things to worry about in this life than this new Senate banning
open pit mining, even if the lower house sends to most militant anti-mining bill its way (and
even that’s in serious doubt).
Chile: Codelco finds a way to stay #1
Back in IKN778 dated April 14th we reported on the race between three companies for the title
of #1 world copper producer. That week, the press in both North and South America (13) had
picked up on the way BHP had already passed Freeport (FCX) to become the #2 player and
according to projections, was on course to produce around 30,000 metric tonnes more than the
2023 Top Dog, Chile’s State-run Codelco, and take the crown. We illustrated the note with a
graphic pulled from a Bloomie note on the subject (right). Therefore, it’s interesting how
Codelco has decided to combat the threat of relegation and here’s Reuters to tell us more (14):
Codelco announced on Thursday that it has bought Enami’s 10% stake in Teck’s (TSX:
TECK.A, TECK.B; NYSE: TECK) Quebrada Blanca mine in northern Chile for $520
million.
According to the Chilean state-run miner, the deal will contribute 25,000 to 30,000
tonnes of copper to Codelco’s annual output.
In other words, the State-run Enami, mostly about
exploration stage projects, land concession rights and
support for small and medium-scale national miners, has
sold its 10% to the State-run Codelco, mostly about
copper production. Nice corporate law work if you can
get it, but to be fair the deal makes sense for both
sides. It improves the Enami overall balance sheet by
around U$170m as well as providing liquidity to pay
down its financial debt pile that recently stood at
U$750m. Meanwhile, Codelco’s been coining it in
recently and has the cash to pay for the 10% tranche of
Quebrada, which in turn will go a long way to bridging
the estimated gap in 2024 and gives Codelco a fighting
chance of remaining top dog (and you’d be surprised how much that matters in Chile, even
among rank and file citizenry).
Market Watching
Testing myself on 35 exploration stage copper companies (Part Five)
It’s month four of this experimental segment but before we go any further today, the first thing
to do is to apologize. This series was planned to track a bunch of 25 copper exploreco stocks
and their relative price performance, using the prices they closed at the end of each month as
our yardstick. That means it Part Five (i.e. today) should have been in IKN798 last weekend but
as things turned out, I decided to defer the piece as last week’s report got long (and had other
things to worry about, e.g. The Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 2q24 financials that needed close
attention, the Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) PEA that took a lot of time from my weekend and
then things like the first part of our coverage on Red Pine (RPX.v), among other niceties in last
weekend’s 33-pager. Anyway, that’s my excuse and I’m sticking to it.
So this week we catch up, but please note WE ARE USING THE COMPANY STOCK PRICES AS
AT SEPTEMBER 1ST to keep it orderly. We’ll therefore run the next edition of this in IKN803
dated Sunday October 6th, with closing prices from Tuesday October 1st to keep things straight.
Apologies done, time for the real work and first our standard reminder of the rules: We’re
monitoring the price action in the copper exploreco sector for the rest of 2024 in order to spot
springers, winners and what type of stock does best in the new environment for copper. The
league table has 35 juniors with projects, all of them copper targets and most of them in The
Americas, be that North, Central or South. The rules:
 We start with the share prices as at May 17th (recent market top)
26

 We take a snapshot price reading at the end of each month and report in that
weekend’s edition (e.g. today)
 We calculate the percentage change since May 17th
 We put the 35 stocks in league table order, with the best performers at the top
However, before the game started I ranked the companies and projects, according to my wholly
subjective opinion of what they have to offer. Please see IKN783 for the stocks in colour
grouping, (with three added) but by way of a reminder, here’s how I’m rating them as
prospective Value propositions:
The colour code
Big Star Green
Star Blue
Neutral Cream
Dog Orange
Big Dog Red
Please be clear, those colour codes are my own subjective opinion, not some sort of definitive
judgment. Indeed, you’ll be able to see how badly my guesses are by checking the final column
on the right. Now for the updated table, in which they are ranked in order of percentage gain or
loss since IKN783: The last time we tuned in there were only eight stocks in positive territory,
this time we’re at nine, which means there and 26 negatives. As from this editon I’ve colour
coded the performances for easier discernment, with the green shaded block the companies in
positive territory since the start, the yellow/cream area those in negative to -20%, then the
nasty red shade for the real downers:
Putting myself to the test on 35 copper juniors
Rank Company Ticker Project Proj. Quality PPS May 17th Sep 1st PPS Sep 1st % change
1 Element 29 ECU.v FdC/Elida 4 0.16 0.29 81.3
2 Panoro Min PML.v Cotabambas 3 0.12 0.17 41.7
3 Regulus Res REG.v AntaKori 7 1.72 2.10 22.1
4 Filo Corp FIL.to Filo 10 26.66 32.08 20.3
5 Northern Dyn NDM.to Pebble 2 0.415 0.47 13.3
6 SolGold SOLG.to Cascabel 5 0.155 0.175 12.9
7 NGEx Min NGEX.to Helados 7 9.98 10.98 10.0
8 Trilogy Met TMQ.to UKMP 4 0.65 0.70 7.7
9 Arizona Son ASCU.to Cactus etc 7 1.65 1.72 4.2
10 Marimaca MARI.to Marimaca 7 4.15 3.88 -6.5
11 Faraday Cop FDY.to Copper Creek 7 0.80 0.74 -7.5
12 Camino Min COR.v Chapitos 3 0.065 0.06 -7.7
13 Los Andes LA.v Vizcachitas 5 10.40 9.49 -8.8
14 QC Copper QCCU.v Opemiska 5 0.15 0.135 -10.0
15 Pampa Metals PM.cse Piuquenes 5 0.25 0.225 -10.0
16 Atex Res ATX.v Valeriano 5 1.41 1.23 -12.8
17 Cordoba Min CDB.v Alacran 3 0.47 0.40 -14.9
18 Aldebaran ALDE.v Altar 6 1.20 0.97 -19.2
19 Oroco OCO.v Santo Tomas 4 0.455 0.36 -20.9
20 C3 Metals CCCM.v Jamaica 3 0.41 0.32 -22.0
21 Libero LBC.v Mocoa 4 0.395 0.30 -24.1
22 Hercules BIG.v Hercules 7 0.89 0.67 -24.7
23 Hot Chili HCH.v Costa Fuego 5 0.97 0.73 -24.7
24 Western Cop WRN.to Casino 5 2.09 1.56 -25.4
25 Alta Copper ATCU.to Cañariaco 3 0.71 0.53 -25.4
26 Kodiak KDK.v MDN 3 0.60 0.44 -26.7
27 Pan Global PGZ.v Escacena 5 0.19 0.13 -31.6
28 Copper Fox CUU.v Schaft Creek 2 0.42 0.27 -35.7
29 Surge Copper SURG.v Berg/Ootsa 4 0.22 0.14 -36.4
30 Kutcho KC.v Kutcho 2 0.20 0.125 -37.5
31 Solaris Res SLS.to Warintza 5 5.43 3.20 -41.1
32 American Eagle AE.v NAK 8 0.74 0.435 -41.2
33 Sendero Res SEND.v Peñas Negras 5 0.095 0.04 -57.9
34 Chakana PERU.v Soledad 3 0.10 0.035 -63.2
35 World Cop WCU.v Escalones 2 0.305 0.065 -78.7
source: TSX/V data, IKN calculations
27

If my estimates were good, the final column on the right would show more green and light blue
at the top of the table, more red and orange at the bottom. I think I could defend myself
slightly on the negative side of the ledger, but overall there’s too much of a random mix of
colours and I’d call my own guesses a failure…so far at least.
As for the real world in the main body of the table, the first nine have kept their collective
heads above water and in a market that’s seen copper pressured back down to the U$4.00/lb
since we began, anything that’s lost less than 10% is doing fairly well in my book. That includes
the first 15, plus Atex at a pinch in 16th place.
Meanwhile down at the bottom, at least my calls on the two utter dogs of the bunch, Alta and
World Copper, have been proven right so far. Anything down 40% or more in these four
months is in serious trouble and likely to be a “broken stock” by now, indeed we know Chakana
and Solaris have dropped even further since these readings were taken on September 1st.
Bottom line: Setting aside my sketchy record of guesses to date (a minor issue, they’re only
guesses after all), I’m not sure whether this series is doing anything useful. It tells us that
around 1 in 4 explorecos is managing to keep its head above water in a tough near-term
environment for the copper space, then four or five seem to have died while we’ve been
watching, but that’s about it and that’s not as scientific as I imagined these monthly updates
would be. Perhaps that’s due to the bearishness in copper, as after all when we started the
clock running on May 17th copper was trading at over U$5.00/lb and Jeff Currie was making his
now infamous “To Infinity And Beyond” calls on the metal.
A week of blow-ups
Last week saw a whole bunch of painful losses in companies that, for one reason or another,
brought price negative news to the market. It didn’t help any of their causes to offer bad news
into a bearish backdrop for metals and miners, but what caught this desk’s attention was the
myriad ways one can lose money in this sector due to news that comes from left field. Three
examples for your consideration:
Example One: First Majestic (AG) is a horrible company that’s been run into the ground over the
years and as this longer-term comparative chart shows
Right), the market finally lost patience with its
incompetence when its Jerritt Canyon acquisition turned
into a Care & maintenance story.
So possibly, its agreement to buy Gatos Silver (GATO) in
an all paper $970m ticket price buyout represents its last
chance to turn itself around. However, the market showed
no mercy to a weak company using all paper as its
medium and as this ten-day chart shows, even the target
company GATO managed to finish lower than before the
deal was announced due to the weakness in AG stock.
28

Having recently suffered from the same type of “take under” action with the trade around
Florida Canyon (FCGV.v), I do have some sympathy for GATO and AG holders. But not that
much, because anyone who thinks AG is a top tier PM producer doesn’t know how to read a
balance sheet.
Example Two: Ascot Resources (AOT.to) had been
going through the tough job of building its mine for
many quarters and things were looking up when, in
April this year, it announced the commissioning and
first pour at it Premier gold mine, Quebec CA.
However things hadn’t gone smoothly since that
milestone moment, it had already announced glitches
and raised capital, but the news Friday morning that it
was putting the mine back onto Care & Maintenance
did this to the stock price: (right).
Ouch. Indeed, a look at the 12 month chart shows
that all was not well at AOT, but the Friday news came from out of nowhere and must have
been sickening for those shareholders who had sponsored this company through the
development and build phase, only to see the reward dashed by (what seems to be) poor
design and mine planning.
Example Three: Today’s last showcase of How To Lose Money Out Of Left Field In Mining
comes from Amex Exploration (AMX.v), which had been widely tipped to be ready to announce
a maiden resource at its Perron project, Quebec CA, of around 2.5m oz gold. So when the
company announced its 1.6m oz resource on
Thursday morning, there weren’t many observers
applauding the decent 4 g/t grade average or the
clear exploration upside the resource showed.
Instead, the stock price did this (right).
Not quite as devastating as the fate that befell AOT,
admittedly, also Amex has plenty of time and
opportunity to improve on this maiden resource, but
last week shows once again the perils of over-
promising and under-delivering, even if the promise
is not much more than rumours and tip-offs doing
the rounds. It’s also the likely reason Eldorado
(EGO) under-performed in the Tier 2 space, what with that player owning 9.9% of AMX and
with the project in its sights as a potential purchase. However, what really caught my eye about
AMX last week is that even after its nasty price drop, its ounces were priced in-situ at around
$100/oz. Compare that to the now similar sized RPX resource at Wawa, which is of course a
different animal but is still 1.685m oz of gold in Canada in a pro-mining zone and surrounded
by interested potential buyers
29

Conclusion
IKN799 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 I still haven’t got around to the look at the Bear Creek Q2, sorry about that. I’ll get to
it, promise.
 Raising cash to buy some RPX shares is going to be an issue this week, the timing isn’t
great for my personal back pocket. However it must be done, as after years of
watching the company from the sidelines the timing is now right. At least a starter
position with the potential to build as time goes on.
 Mexico is going to be just fine. Relax and buy some cheap MAI.v shares.
 But avoid Colombia. Seriously.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/schedule-for-week-of-september-8-2024.html
(2) https://redpineexp.com/red-pine-announces-upsize-of-previously-announced-bought-deal-private-placement-to-
c9565529/
(3) https://newcoregold.com/news/newcore-gold-announces-5-million-private-placement-financing-2024/
(4) https://newcoregold.com/news/newcore-gold-announces-upsize-of-private-placement-financing-2024/
(5) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-heads-for-second-weekly-fall-on-global-growth-concerns/
(6) https://www.precioussummit.com/event/2024-precious-metals-summit-beaver-creek/
(7) https://www.goldforumamericas.com/
(8) https://expominaperu.com/
(9) https://www.lahora.com.ec/pais/ministerio-energia-allanamiento-fiscalia-otorgamiento-irregular-titulos-mineros/
(10) https://www.lahora.com.ec/pais/certificados-exportacion-minera-solo-podran-emitirse-quito/
(11) https://mineriaenlinea.com/2024/09/mineras-mexicanas-reconsideracion-de-la-propuesta-para-prohibir-mineria-a-
cielo-abierto/
(12) https://eldiariodesonora.com.mx/sonora/2024/09/04/senadora-sonora-lorenia-valles-asume-presidencia-comision-
mineria.html
(13) https://www.mining.com/codelco-acquires-enamis-10-stake-in-tecks-quebrada-blanca-mine/
(14) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/2024/04/10/la-industria-del-cobre-esta-cerca-de-tener-un-nuevo-lider/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
30

Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
31

Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
32

Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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