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The IKN Weekly
Week 797, August 25th 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Gold still 2500.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying American Eagle Gold Corp (AE.v) as a near-term trade.
Stocks to Follow: Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to),
Florida Canyon Gold Inc (FCGV.v), Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v), Newcore
Gold (NCAU.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, NGEx Resources (NGEX.to), Los Andes Copper (LA.v), Arizona
Sonoran (ASCU.to), Hercules Metals (BIG.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) (DPMLF), Lundin Gold
(LUG.to) (LUGDF), Hecla (HL), Newmont (NEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v), Awalé Resources (ARIC.v),
Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v).
Regional Politics: Mexican open pits and Sheinbaum: A political addendum, Gustavo Petro is
the most important man in Latin America today, Peru’s growth plans are based on mining and
public spending, The USA on tour and talking mining.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
It’s not going to be a big position, not least because personal funds are low and I’m going to
have to dip into the barrel scrap treasury reserve and “lend myself” a little money, but the
combo of price and opportunity makes this an obvious trade. I’m a buyer of American Eagle
(AE.v) this week, the reasonably straightforward trade thesis in today’s main Fundies section.
In today’s edition
 I said I wouldn’t be a buyer of anything else after the Eldorado (EGO) purchase, I said I
had no money left, circumstances have made me into a liar. Today’s main
Fundamentals note isn’t a deep dive on American Eagle Gold Corp (AE.v), instead it lays
out why I’m a buyer of these newly discounted shares and what I attempt to achieve
with the envisaged trade.
 Gold stayed above the U$2,500/oz line last week, aside from a quick and somewhat
suspicious lapse before Jay Powell said the magic words. Today’s main intro note picks
up from where we left off last weekend, but also warns that as from now, we should be
looking to the gold miners for upside, not from gold bullion.
 By popular demand (you people are weird), more on Mexico’s political situation in
Regional Politics to add to the main note last week. Also, after writing that up I found
myself writing on what is set to become a real fulcrum issue down this end of The
Americas, President Gustavo Petro of Colombia and what he does about the Venezuela
election mess.
 Jackson Hole is behind us and we’re now in the last trading week before US Labor Day,
which normally marks the end of the Northern hemisphere vacation season and when
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“serious money” gets back to the office to do some work. If you thought U$2,500/oz
gold was fun you’d better hang on to your hats, the quiet period is about to end.
Gold still 2500
The odd moment for metals and markets last week came on Thursday, when the financial world
seemed to take a breath, gird its collective loins and square off accounts before Jerome Powell
took the stage to make his keynote Jackson Hole speech the next morning. When he did, and
when he uttered the magic words about the near-term future of US base rate, we returned to
the previously advertised programming:
“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing
and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the
balance of risks.”
Whatever ‘normality might mean these days. The magic words were carefully embedded into
the speech, with Powell’s comments on the diminished risk of inflation on one side of it and
then came commentary on the jobs market afterward, (“We will do everything we can to
support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability”), neatly
symbolizing the Fed dual mandate. But his audience had come for one reason only and gold,
which had spent a day under the U$2,500/oz line, returned to normal bullish service with those
magic words. We’ll go with the Comex spot gold contract and a ten-day timescale:
That Thursday dip looks…well, suspicious is the word, isn’t it? This desk doesn’t dive headlong
into the conspiracy theory world much, but by the same token we recognize that dirty deeds do
happen in markets and big pockets use manipulation to tilt the playing field from time to time.
That’s what it felt like on Thursday, that’s how it panned out on Friday and if so, it means the
natural tendency for gold to move higher is likely to be challenged more than just this once
again in the near future.
And that’s fair enough, it’s not for us to stomp our feet and whine about an unjust world. You
can even trade gold and use it as a flipping vehicle if you’re mad enough, personally I’ll stick to
its real message:
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We’re in K.I.S.S. mode today, keeping the message simple to suit your stupid author. We know
the financial response to Covid was to open up the sluices and flood the market with dollar
liquidity, we also know that the only time from then until now that gold came under price
pressure was at the tail end of the Fed’s tightening cycle, used to combat that infamously
“transitory” inflation that stuck around.
That’s when “money got more expensive” and the world held its breath for the textbook
downturn in economic activity. Me too on that score, but instead of seeing its effects
immediately, growth rates and job creation kept on running all though 2023. But we’re now at
the point when “something has changed”, with a mountain of anecdotal evidence from all walks
of life available online, but we can stick with the macro indicators as the blunt weapon. We
know people on budgets have less to spend, people with disposable income are saving more
and demand for goods and services is finally dropping. We know that because the
unemployment rate is up and inflation is down. For sure, the arguments now shift to whether
we’re getting a hard or soft landing but that’s not new for 2024 either and you’ll note, ever
since Covid gold has stayed its course whatever the prevailing outlook was to the real economy.
The point is simple; gold responds to financial change, the adjustments made in the abstract
world of monetary policy and not the real world. We saw that in 2020 to 2023, it’s also behind
the change we saw in April this year, when gold broke away from the $2k line and rushed to
where we are today, $2.5k and counting.
Of course 20/20 hindsight is easy and of course, your author didn’t call every single gold move
along that way correctly. Just for one example, I remember the stomach churn of late 2022
when gold went under U$1,700/oz and copper dived to under U$3.20/lb…that wasn’t funny at
all. What we have had clear all this time is the macro trajectory and how gold (or more
precisely, the price of gold in dollars) would have to benefit from the increase in money supply
eventually. That moment is now and it’s what we’ve seen in this rocket move from 2k to 2.5k
since April (or if you prefer the +35% move from the October 2023 low). The market did what
markets do, it’s anticipated the start of the Fed loosening cycle and knows that the next phase,
with rates dropping and inflation back in range, is conducive to gold. However, we also need to
be clear, the price of gold is a leading and not a lagging indicator and the upcoming rate drops
will not affect gold in the same way as the recent anticipation has. Gold at U$2,500/oz is great
news, but the Fed’s eye on inflation means it doesn’t have much immediate upside left.
But that’s only gold! We’re not here to trade that stuff, the real benefit to gold at 2500 is going
to show in the share prices of the miners. Be clear, the triple whammy of 1) controlled inflation
2) interest rates dropping 2) gold at these prices is a near-perfect environment for precious
metal mining stocks, the ones we cover, watch and buy here at The IKN Weekly and unlike gold
bullion in dollars, the miners are obviously lagging the metal. That’s where we are today, an
environment in which the mining stocks will outperform not only gold, but most other industrial
sectors. I for one have positioned the personal portfolio for this moment and you’re free to
argue about my specific vehicles (you think owning IMPACT Silver is dumb? Fine by me), here
in the intro rant we’re all about the big picture strategy and from here, the job is simple. If
you’re not fully long PMs yet, make sure you are and then stay that way. The “sell high” part
comes later.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying American Eagle Gold Corp (AE.v) as a near-term trade
I’m aware of my bad habit of starting the occasional Fundies section by promising a concise and
short note before running off a dozen pages, but this time I mean it. Here’s the trade set-up in
five straightforward bullet points for the TL:DR among you:
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o We’ve followed American Eagle Gold Corp (AE.v) since it started showing interesting
returns from its NAK copper/gold project in BC Canada.
o Last week’s assay NR disappointed a market that had been hyped up to expect more
from the first set of assay results from the 2024 drill program.
o We believe there’s a lot more to come from NAK and the market’s impression last week
of a project that has demonstrated its limits is far from the truth.
o With copper now recovering and at least 15 holes pending from the current program,
there’s every reason to expect the stock price to rebound as soon as AE hits better
mineralization.
o We don’t need to make a long-term investment in AE to make money at these prices.
Instead, I’m going to run a strict trade plan with a near-term outlook, with a more
modest objective of selling when the price returns to its recent 60c level. This would
offer a reasonable 30% (or so) return for a near-term trade.
TL:DR done, the first job is to check back on the coverage history of AE.v in The IKN Weekly as
in this case, it’s not merely some sort of academic background to establish our knowledge of
the company or its NAK project. Instead and unusually, today’s little list forms an integral part
of our trade thesis. As a visual aid, here’s a two year annotated chart of AE.v, with notes on
when the stock showed up on these pages as well as a couple of other significant moments
where news shows up:
Now for the timeline:
1) Aside from a couple of passing mentions due to the shares of AE held by Orecap (OCI.v, at
the time ORX.v) our coverage started in IKN715, dated January 29th 2023, in the note
“Thoughts on American Eagle (AE.v)”. It was basic stuff, but the overview note was enough to
mark my interest in the stock and also defend the company from accusations of being a pump
or con job, a line that was doing the rounds online and on bullboards at the time.
2) The next significant coverage came in IKN720 dated March 5th 2023 and the note, “American
Eagle (AE.v): A swing and a miss”, which reported on a drill assay that didn’t impress the
market. The line we took was to keep an eye on the company and its progress, but watching
brief only.
3) The next serious work on AE.v came in IKN736 dated June 25th 2023. That coincided with a
NR that told the world about its plans to cut hole 009 in a zone away from the main target
area, but managed to move the market because it included photos and visuals on the newly cut
hole 008. There was enough in that set of photos to interest observers and move the stock
4

from around 15c to a 27c close that week. A big percentage move in a company under soft
coverage is going to catch the eye, so IKN736 went into some detail on the stock, what it was
up to and the risk/reward potential from the pending assay results of hole 008 and the next
hole, 009. Here’s how the closing paragraph of note that weekend, entitled “New momentum
for American Eagle (AE.v)”, started:
The bottom line: Are you feeling lucky? Longer-term readers would have guessed already that your
cowardly, whussy author prefers to sit out the stock at this point in time and let others assume the
risk of buying AE at 20c or above, with the late Friday jump to a 27c close looking like overbuying on
all counts.”
As things turned out, I was both right and wrong not to buy that 27c price. The “wrong” is
obvious, as even after last week’s major price dump AE is priced at 45.5c. But at the time and
as it happened, when the hole 008 assays came back from the lab they didn’t meet
expectations, then hole 009 was basically a miss and as a result (see chart above). Before the
disappointment of 008 and 009, AE shares had traded around the 30c level but then had to go
through a period of sub-20c prices in October and November and December before starting to
show more promise. That started in November and a more promising hole showing 900m of
0.5% CuEq, which was followed by some corporate moves that raised interest in the company.
We then got the real breakout in January 2024 and by then, AE.v was part of our Copper
Basket for 2024 which has allowed us (well, me) to follow it easily and more closely via that
basket. The big date was January 8th and the NR title (1), “American Eagle Intersects 302
metres of 1.09% Copper Equivalent within 606 metres of 0.74% Copper Equivalent”.
As they wrote on the side of fireworks when I was a kid, Light blue touch paper and retire to a
safe distance. AE took off and from then until last week, the company reinforced its copper (or
copper/gold if you prefer) discovery status with deals, significant insider purchases and plenty
of marketing that has put the company and the NAK project in the front rank of exploreco
stories on the TSXV. By the time February came around AE was a 50c stock and it stayed in and
for nearly six months, its base price has been around the 60c level with several spikes over 70c
along the way. Which brings us to last week the NR dated August 20th (2) and while the title
line looked upbeat enough, observant AE shareholders’ heart had probably already sunk before
opening the missive.
“American Eagle Intercepts 175 m of 1 g/t Gold Eq, 275 m of 0.9 g/t Gold Eq
and 108 m of 1 g/t Gold Eq, All from Surface at NAK”
Gold equivalent and no mention of copper, uh oh. Now for sure there are things to like about
the contents of last week’s NR, but when the market has waited over seven months, knows the
company has been drilling since May and has cut more of the long and deep holes that were
looking to emulate the resounding success of Hole 017 reported in January, being offered a
“Gold Zone” as headline wasn’t enough. I, as a largely neutral (there’s that minor exposure via
OCI) and interested observer could be sanguine and see both sides, with my first reaction being
“It’s a nothingburger” and that “If it sells off at the bell, expect copper bargain hunters to move
in” (3) but I was also aware that the “If it sells off” was almost certainly a “When”. So selling
didn’t surprise, but the speed
at which it broke down and
reached the low-40s did. That
was the point when I began
to think more seriously about
buying shares, but it was also
clear that there was no rush
and plenty of time to think.
5

After due consideration, the major
concern wasn’t the gold intercepts as
reported and more the fact that AE
had decided to report last week in
Gold Equivalent in order to underscore
that zone’s potential as some sort of
quick payback starter pit for any
eventual mine (a little tenuous, but I’ll
go with it). Instead, the issues came
from the reported holes that didn’t
make the headlines, particularly 18
and 20. Those were the first holes cut
into the zone between the area to the
South of the Main Zone where hole
017 is located and the zone to the
North of the Main Zone, where for
example we saw the 900m of 0.50%
CuEq from hole 012. Holes 18 and 20
are the first to start the step-out
between those zones since the long
assays were hit and in a perfect
world, would have also returned long
cuts of similar grades. Instead we got:
NAK24-18: 816m of 0.25% CuEq (0.15% Cu)
NAK24-20: 827m of 0.29% CuEq (0.16% Cu)
No complaints about the reported lengths, even though the details show
grade concentrated in specific areas (and quite a lot deep), but those
grades didn’t match the good holes to the South of North and it’s no
surprise AE decided to go with the “Gold Zone” hole assays in the
headline. A closer look at the the Main Zone map (right) shows the
location of holes 018 and 020, I’ve also put an orange box around two
holes that should be reported soon enough (AE people tell me we should
get the next assay NR at some point “After Beaver Creek” in September
and that results NRs from this program should continue until January or
so). They are interesting, as they now sit between the low-ish grade
returned reported last week and the blue box, denominated the “Jewel
Box” zone. Until last week, the picture perfect result was repeat hole 017
all the way up and create a massive mineralized zone of 0.50% CuEq or
more, we now await those two holes with less anticipation but when
they show, they have the potential to move the stock up again of grades
and widths work out well.
On the subject of broken dreams, the conversations I’ve had on AE this
week include more than one expert on the geology telling me that NAK
isn’t an ordinary, straightforward porphyry. It’s seen multiple
mineralization phases and intrusions, which make it less predictable than
the typical Andean monster deposit. It’s the way it is and as such,
perhaps expectations were a little too high coming into last week’s
results NR (even though it was telling the company decided to give us all those drill assays at
the same time and relegate 018 and 020 to a non-headline position). Indeed, part of the reason
to go through our coverage history above is to underscore that to date, NAK hasn’t been an
easy project to predict geologically. The team is certain there’s a big an powerful system down
there, but results from drilling have so far been, quite literally, hit and miss. Another thing that
came to me on due reflection is that the market seems to be expecting too much of this project
too soon. Yes, it’s been around for many years and being explored with drill rigs by the current
team for a year and half now, but considering the size and scope of the deposit, there really
6

aren’t many holes in it yet and once we add the geological complexity into the mix, it’s not so
surprising that we’re still seeing half-hits, dusters and assays that come back with disparate
grades. That’s a long way of saying something simple, it really still is early days here and it
shouldn’t be a issue that the AE don’t have a complete handle on the deposit, size and shape
yet. Two years of drilling maybe, but it’s still effective the early stages and in that light, not
managing to emulate what they hit in January during the first phase of follow-up drilling isn’t a
biggie. Last week’s NR doesn’t mean we’ve reached the limitations of NAK yet, not even close.
With 15 drills in the current program and C$14.5m at bank (as per the latest corporate
presentation and confirmed by this desk, there are any number of opportunities coming in the
next few weeks to see another “good hole” that erases the memory of last week’s mixed bag of
results and set AE back on course, with a higher stock price resulting. I can also report via a
third party that partner Teck has been (and I quote) “Positive and encouraging (the team) to
stay the course and continue drilling to build tonnage in the current zone.” That means fewer
pure step-outs this year and more holes from zones where AE will be confident of hitting the
same type of long strong grading rocks that provide attractive headlines.
The proposed trade set-up: Having thought hard about this, I’ve decided to create a rod for my
own back and play the current down dip, assume it’s a temporary window and trade the
opportunity. Sub-45c prices should become available at some point in the next couple of weeks
and with just one decent hole that shows the same grades and lengths as before, from
anywhere in the Main Zone, would be enough to see the stock price return to the 60c level. As
45c to 60c is a gross margin of 33.3% on any trade, that’s as reasonable yardstick for my
proposal of a near-term trade. The rod for my back comes if a recovery to 60c is just a starting
point and the stocks starts running the way many people thought it would when they were
buying at 60c and 70c this year (you may recall, I missed out on the big move in Fortuna (FSM)
this year by “sticking to the plan”). So it would be a reasonable strategy to buy at the current
discount and then hold through indefinitely, but the principal attraction of today’s prices is 1)
knowing that AE’s share price is near-certain to return to at least 60c with just one good assay
result and 2) knowing AE has another 15 or so holes to report between now and January,
making the odds of success very high. If there weren’t such an easy lay-up trade opportunity
available, I wouldn’t be using the scrape-barrel-bottom funds to open this trade but as there is,
and it may turn out to be one that makes a difference in a short period of time, I’m game about
stretching my portfolio to its liquidity limit and buying shares this week.
Bottom line: I am a buyer of American Eagle (AE.v) in the days ahead, preferable at a price of
45c or lower (which by implication means I’m highly unlikely to be champing at the bit
tomorrow morning at the bell, I’ll happily wait for my price if necessary). Once long, I’ll be strict
with myself and sell if the stock returns to the 60c (or slightly above) level and take any near-
term profit and if AE then continues to soar without my money on, then so be it.
Stocks to Follow
The Top Pick continues to drag on the portfolio, but you should be used to that by now.
We’re up to 20 positions on the Stocks to Follow list and of those, just four were losers last
week (RIO.v, OCI.v, IPT.v, MIRL.cse) and even with those, no real damage was done. Three
others were unchanged (MAI.v, PGZ.v, PGDC.v) and that means thirteen winners, so we’re not
listing them all and we’ll just note the big percentage moves in Mene Inc (MENE.v up 21.1%),
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse up 12.5) and Newcore Gold (NCAU.v up 9.7%)
We’re at a full complement, with 20 open positions on our Stocks to Follow list, that’s our self-
imposed maximum. Eleven of those are in the green, one is UNCH, eight are in the red.
7

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.26 23.8% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.56 -30.0% Momentum now building
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$8.59 24.5% Quality Ag/Au, U$12.96 tgt
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$17.74 7.2% new trade, finally long
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v hold C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.56 -11.1% under offer, will hold thru
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.14 -26.3% Overweight position,cheap Cu
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$3.93 28.9% Quality Cu developer
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.72 11.7% return, (re)starter position
Bear Creek Min BCM.v SPEC BUY C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.335 -4.3% Spec Ag(& Au) trade, 2 buys
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.05 -16.7% Exposed to several good jrs
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$21.05 12.6% Production re-rate in Q3
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 65.9% Cheap Au in West Africa
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$1.00 38.9% into FY24 news season now
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.225 -25.0% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Red Pine Expl RPX.v WATCH C$0.08 4-May-24 C$0.10 25.0% Special situation, poss trade
Fitzroy Min FTZ.v WATCH C$0.17 4-Aug-24 C$0.19 11.8% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.02 0.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.095 5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.115 -76.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): Down to 5c and easy to buy. OCI picked up collateral damage from the
dump in AE.v last week (see above). However, as the liquid(ish) asset valuation chart shows...
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.46 5.32 2.1
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.16 0.02 0.0
ARIC.v 8.33 0.55 4.58 1.9
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.35 1.46 0.6
QCCU.v 5.06 0.13 0.66 0.3
MIS.cse 24.71 0.03 0.74 0.3
Curprum privco 29.50 0.12 3.54 1.4
subtotal 16.31 6.6
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 17.81 7.2
At 247.714 S/O
8

…there’s still a lot of value here and would still be at a 20% discount arb even if at 6c. I’m the
first to agree this stock is difficult to trade, with a small share price and a thin market that
occasionally sees a lumpy trade or two. If you’re looking to flip in and out of a position look
somewhere else, but if you’re into slowly building a deep value position with the potential to
deliver a big win over time, it’s worth keeping on your radar. If I weren’t an upcoming buyer of
AE in the days to come, I’d deploy cash here at 5c.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): It may sound a bit negative, or even cruddy, on my part to say
what I’m about to say about the house Top Pick, but after the shellacking it took on Friday
August 16th (see IKN76) on the Mexico open pit “news”, the
price action we saw last week was just about the best I could
have reasonably expected from the stock. Perhaps in an ideal
world MAI ended a penny or two up, but to see the bleeding
staunched and to finish UNCH on calmer volume was all I
really hoped from the stock.
Thing is, it doesn’t matter how illogical or badly informed
people are when a panic sell attack hits on news or events, or
how well constructed or informed any appeal to reason is from
the company of from its supporters afterward, the selling
leaves shockwaves and will not suddenly halt. We saw that as
from midweek, when best prices were sold into and then Friday, which saw MAI sell down even
as gold re-took U$2,500/oz and dragged the PM complex up with it.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): A slightly disappointing
week for EGO and this new position. The ten-day chart
(right) shows that EGO wasn’t far behind the sector
median (GDX proxy) but the idea of owning a Tier 2 is to
out-perform Tier 1 and other peers, not just run with
them. It may be simple variance, with EGO picking up a
profit-taker on Friday. But with all that said, I’m still happy
to give the trade time to do what I think EGO is capable of
doing, no rush to judgment.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): If ARG adds 3c a week
from now until the end of the year you won’t hear a word of dissent from this desk.
Florida Canyon Gold Inc (FCGV.v): The ITR/FCGV combo continued to float up on the
positive gold market tide and has cut the painful loss a little more. This won’t stay for long in
the portfolio.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): Some volume came for ALDE last week, with a couple of
days of 100k+ trading and a move to C$1.05, which
adjusted to the C$1.00 Friday finish as seen in the chart
(right). ALDE also turned up in this Reuters note (4)
dated Friday August 23rd on the rise of the copper in
Argentina, which ran with the headline “BHP’s return to
Argentina marks new hope for untapped copper mines”
in reference to the recent Lundin/BHP JV deal on
Filo/Josemaria.
Reuters got its ALDE quote from its country manager,
Javier Robeto:
Javier Roberto, who oversees the early-stage Altar project in
San Juan province for Aldebaran Resources, expects BHP’s vote of confidence to help it secure
financing – even though Altar is unlikely to qualify for Milei’s investment perks because it is still in
its exploration phase.
9

“Many things we were waiting for, the big investments from abroad, are starting to crystallize,”
Roberto said.
He said the company has begun to seek financing to push the project ahead up to the pre-
feasibility stage in 2026, beginning with conversations with three major current investors, while
looking at options such as issuing shares or bringing on an investment bank.
“We’re feeling out, so to speak, some of the players in the market,” he said.
So now you know. No surprise to read that ALDE is moving to raise financing, but seeing it in
print means we must be close to a deal. That makes sense, post-Labor-Day is a traditional
financing window for explorecos.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): The change in tone and the
improved share price is all about the disappearance
of that big seller, as is clear from the 2024 YTD
chart. We also saw the adjusted incentives deal for
the new(ish) CEO early this month and some insider
buying to underscore his commitment, but the move
from a frankly ridiculous 9c to the still uber-cheap
11.5c of this weekend is due to the lack of volume
on the sell. With the share price having steadied, we
now wait to see if MENE can build on that
surprisingly good 2q24 earnings report.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): Did we panic when this stock dropped to 26c and 27c recently? No,
we did not:
NCAU is a smallcap exploreco with an interesting gold project, it’s going to suffer volatility. As a
reminder of the mindset required here’s the note we put in IKN795, after NCAU had closed its
week at 26.5c:
“…explorecos sometimes go through these periods, it’s all about the lack of bandwidth.
The only way to avoid being trapped is to have a plan laid out, whether that’s to move
in and out quickly when interest in the sector is higher, or to keep your eyes on the big
prize and the long-term fundamental reasons to sponsor these companies. The key is to
act on your own plan, not to react when things don’t go to script. In the case of NCAU I
held patiently when it was a 10c and 12c stock, I’ll do the same here at 26c and gold at
U$2,400/oz.
Here we are, two weeks after those words and NCAU back at 34c. Keep your eyes on the prize.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The stock continues to float in the 50c range as we wait for what’s set to
be a much busier month of September. Skate to where the
puck is going to be.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): We finally got some price
reaction from RPX last week and buyers arrived to push the
price into double figures for the first time since the Quentin
Yarie scandal hit. New CEO Marchaud must be doing the
10

rounds and getting people familiarized with the plan, that’s fine by me so it’s time to reiterate
the house position here: Yes, this is an interesting potential spec play, yes Wawa has potential
and with CEO Marchaud now at the helm, it has the brains trust it needs to unlock the geology
and hang together a resource that works as a mine. However, we also know RPX needs to raise
money and I see no point in stepping in front of what’s going to be a dilutive financing before
we know the details (price, size etc). It’s on the Watch List for a very good reason…we’re
watching.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-four weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 3.62% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1974.73 10.57 47.6%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 514.63 3.18 -23.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 365.92 3.93 14.6%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 243.62 8.25 -30.1%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 180.13 1.65 -5.7%
6 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 173.25 0.75 -45.7%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 169.82 1.00 12.4%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 167.87 0.82 30.2%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 85.29 0.36 -4.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 53.12 0.455 75.0%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 28.16 0.265 47.2%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 27.81 0.435 -25.0%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 22.58 0.13 8.3%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 19.80 0.32 -47.5%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 12.40 0.06 -14.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 3.62%
Last week’s basket performance was all about 25% The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
American Eagle (AE.v), its dump turning what 20%
would have been a near-2% improvement into a 15%
near-3% basket average loss. The headcount
10%
certainly favoured the upside, with nine winners
5%
from the 15 component stocks (BAY.v, SLS.to,
0%
MARI.to, BIG.v, ASCU.to, ALDE.v, FDY.to,
-5%
QCCU.v, COR.v), one unchanged stock (OCO.v)
-10%
and just five losers (LA.v, CCCM.v, KDK.v, AE.v,
ECU.v), there were even a couple of bigger
percentage winners in Hercules (BIG.v up 11.9%)
and Faraday (FDY.to up 10.8%) to help the
cause, but the drop in the basket leader American Eagle (AE.v down 28.9%) which tore nearly
half its annual gains away from the stock was too much the balance out. It is the way it is.
So aside AE.v a good week for the sub-sector and the driver isn’t going to surprise regular
readers; however the rally in copper-the-metal was almost stealth in nature and made for very
few headlines behind the fun and games in gold. But as that spike in volume in the
December’24 Comex contract (we’ve shifted to HGZ24 as from this week, as volume is now
equal to the September contract and open interest is far superior) on Friday shows, copper was
quickly bid up as soon as Jay Powell said those magic words.
11
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52
source: IKN calcs

As usual, the metals commentariat reversed engineered its thoughts on copper to suit the new
reality. So who out there remembers "Copper steadies as gloom on global growth hits demand"
and “The global economic growth cycle has turned lower” from just two weeks ago, in IKN795?
There was I thinking that “economic cycles” were long-term drivers of supply, demand and
pricings but oh silly me, we live in accelerated times as on Friday August 23rd we’re told by the
metals experts that copper was up on “falling inventories, improving demand” (5) "Copper
steadies as gloom on global growth hits demand" and “The global economic growth cycle has
turned lower” from just two weeks ago, in IKN795). When Reuters reached for its Rolodex for
the quote, we got this from one Soni Kumari, analyst at ANZ:
“The macroeconomic backdrop is not looking as gloomy as recently feared. Fundamentals are
showing signs of improvement, too….Inventories are retreating and contango forward curve is
narrowing…suggesting a tighter market. Downstream demand is showing signs of improvement as
well for copper and aluminium.”
In other words, the samo samo behind-the-curve
BS from overpaid suits. Point of fact, this chart
explains the rise in copper prices more than
anything else (right). Copper prices in US Dollars
rose because the US Dollar dropped and copper
continued to get bought by its users (mostly in
China. However, you cannot possibly say that it
was the dollar wot did it guv, you need to justify
your existence and that of your trading desk. Of
course, I do agree that demand is better than was
being made out in July and the first weeks of
August, the difference is that this desk was stating
that fact before copper rebounded, not post-facto.
We now move to our regular weekly look at world copper inventories, with data from Cochilco
and Richard. Thanks again, Richard:
 An interesting week for the aggregate of the three official world inventory systems, as
to my own surprise it ended with a net gain of 1,029 metric tonnes (mt), one that
happened in unusual circumstances. This weekend’s net total stands at 595,045 mt.
 After last week’s 24kmt drop in SHFE copper inventory, we saw another five-figure drop
this week of 11,144mt. Not a massive one, but enough to maintain the downward
trajectory and momentum. Stocks this weekend stand at 251,062mt, see the dedicated
chart below for the visual comparative.
 The LME continued to add tonnages, with a net total of 6,525mt entering its doors to
bring the Friday close to 315,575mt. However, it wasn’t the same action as in other
weeks as only one of the three main Asia warehouse destinations saw copper added to
their piles. That was Taiwan (again), up 10,825mt, but to counter that we saw copper
12

stocks drawn down in South Korea (-3.175mt) and Singapore (-1,125mt). the move in
South Korea requires monitoring, as it’s one of the places we’ve seen wholesale
Chinese inventory dumping happening this year and its stocks have risen from under
3,000mt to last weekend’s 110,000mt. If that starts to deplete, it would provide
another clear indicator of improved demand in the region. Needless to say, I don’t buy
the “China Copper Dead” narrative we’ve been fed this Northern summer.
 But perhaps the biggest surprise came from Comex, which added an eye-opening
5,648mt to its inventory to close the week at 28,408mt. As a reminder, only a few
weeks ago Comex registered a historic low of just over 8kmt (see IKN790 dated July
7th) so in just seven weeks, North America’s copper storage dump of preference has
added just over 20,000mt to its inventory.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows the continued decline, but also that SHFE warehouse
inventory levels still have at least 100,000mt to drop before returning to a seasonal norm and
arguably up to 200kmt.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
It’s been a weird year and it’s only going to get weirder. Now for some notes on a couple of our
basket stocks.
NGEx Resources (NGEX.to): I submit this is being
bought as much for its “brand” as for anything
connected with its fundamentals or prospects these
days. NGEX.to hit a new ATH this week and even
though volume dropped off as the week wore on (see
ten-day chart, right) had no problem in consolidating
above the C$10 line. At nearly C$2Bn, this is now way
too expensive for what it is, though readers should
remember I said exactly the same about Filo Mining at
C$18.
Los Andes Copper (LA.v): Your occasional reminder that LA hasn’t given us a meaningful
news release all year. What’s more, it’s been nearly three months since its last corporate-y NR.
This is what comes from being opaque about the real issues at your company. Tied up in legal
battles with a community that hates its presence, LA is a classic example of the mistake
investors make when they assume country risk is more important than local risk. This company
has made a sucker of investors as big as Queen’s Road Capital though, it’s not just retail that
fell for this one.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): I’m the first to concede that ASCU’s share price has held up
better than I expected since the pop on volume that coincided with the publication of its PEA
NR at the start of this month, this chart (right) with the hourly moves over the last month
showing the mini-re-rate since that event. We’re also clear that ASCU is one of the stocks most
likely to get the newsletter pumpo at the upcoming sector conferences, particularly Beaver

Creek in mid-September, which happens to
more-or-less coincide with the 45 day limit
for filing the 43-101 PEA report on SEDAR
(instead of relying on the company NR).
We covered that NR event in IKN795 two
weekends ago and listed the reasons why
it’s going to be important to know more
about the details of this devil before coming
to a conclusion. Also last week, when noting
an exchange this desk had with the
company’s IR. No real opinion until the 43-
101 is available for perusal, but not chasing
any “vibe” either, so consider me neutral for
the moment.
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): The rally we reported
in BIG shares continued last week and the stock is
now over 30% up since IKN795, that’s a decent
move. The company told us about the delay to
assays and its issues with the 2024 summer drill
program, but we’re now in the time window for
those first and slightly delayed assays, so
jungledrums at least are positive. OTOH, this may
be people abandoning their AE position last week
and looking for another hot spec copper junior
with which to play the casino. Personally, I’ll just
watch this one from the sidelines until they return
the type of hole that would interest Barrick.
The Producer Basket
After 34 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 38.24% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 59.98 52.04 25.7%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 41.23 82.79 50.9%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 36.00 20.50 13.3%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 23.73 123.54 11.5%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 7.77 21.33 30.6%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.22 4.87 20.45 61.8%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.82 6.19 28.7%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.59 17.74 36.8%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.77 9.84 53.0%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.48 9.91 70.0%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 38.24%
There were nine winners on the week, with just Wesdome (WDOFf) posting a loss since last
weekend, so another good performance from our list and indeed, we0ve managed to stretch
our lead against the GDX benchmark even further. The strategy to lean on more lower cap
stocks this year and add silver exposure is finally paying off and the +11.38% is testimony to
that call. This is good and the two biggest movers last week were straight from that playbook,
with Hecla (HL up 10.0%...well 9.95% to be exact but we round up) and Lundin Gold (LUGDF
14

up 8.4%) out-performing the pack. However, it’s not all sweetness and flowers because to my
own slight surprise, most of the laggards last week were from the bottom of the market cap
list. Wesdome (WDOFF down 2.4%) was the worst, but Eldorado (EGO up 0.3%) and Dundee
(DPMLF up 0.6%) only just managed to scrape a weekly win despite the positivism in the
market all week (aside Thursday).
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
40% comparative to GDX control
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Dundee Precious Metals (DPMLF): Subject of last week’s main write-up, DPM traded in the
way of a stock that’s reaching a ceiling to its fundamental parameters. But as that’s how we
framed it in the note last weekend, maybe I’m just biased.
Lundin Gold (LUG.to) (LUGDF): The rally continues:
Two and a bit weeks ago, LUG reported a blowout Q2 including an EPS of 50c per share and we
liked what we saw that weekend in IKN795. A quote: “It reacted positively on an influx of new
volume, but the market wasn’t falling over itself to buy at these levels and that’s a bit of a
mystery to me….This could go a lot higher.”
Then last week, we tipped our hat to the sleeper style gains it had registered since IKN795 but
thought there was more in the tank. IKN796: “With a forward PE of just 8X when those
earnings were announced, there’s still room for upside as far as I’m concerned.”
Here we are, another week and another 8.4% week-over week improvement. On the day LUG
filed its Q2, the U$0.50 EPS implied a forward PE of 8x and that headline metric was enough for
your author to call the stock higher. That’s now 10.5X and more in-line with its peers, from here
it’s up for argument as to whether a single-asset miner in a frontier jurisdiction (a nice way of
saying Ecuador is and will remain a basket case) can command the same type of 12X PE and
allow the stock to float higher. There’s also the well-founded jungledrums about LUG wanting to
buy its second mine and currently on the hunt. That makes sense because it would be a smart
business move to deploy some of that rapidly growing treasury into a new operation, but it
would probably hit the stock price on the day any deal were announced. LUG now finds itself
with a rapidly expanding cash treasury and “good paper” with which to broker a deal and turn
itself from a single mine entity into something larger. This is how Tier 1s are built.
15
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2.0%
ikn 0.0%
gdx control -2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
source: IKN calcs -14.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Hecla (HL): Very impressed with the way HL has traded since early August and its 2q24
financial results, filed on August 6th. Up over 28%
since that date, HL has put in the type of run we
wanted from it as a “leverage to silver” trade and all
before gold’s poorer sibling has managed to get
back over the U$30/oz line. This three month chart
shows the volatility in HL over the last three months,
with HL first hitting lows just after the change of
CEO in June and then on the run into it’s Q2 report,
which coincided with precious metals weakness but
also shows how the market assumed its Q2 would
be worse than it was.
Having flattered to deceive on so many occasions,
HL isn’t a company I’d trust to string several good quarters together but as a beta to GDX
trade, it’s starting to show its worth and if silver does what I think it’s going to do as Q3
becomes Q4, it’s one for very-near-term traders to keep in the centre of their radars.
Newmont (NEM): It’s time to give NEM CEO Tom Palmer some credit. Back on February 27th
with the Newcrest fusion finally done and dusted after
a full year of legal back and forth, CEO Palmer went
on Bloomberg TV and called the stock price at that
time a (quote) “…once-in-a-generation buy for anyone
who’s thinking of putting a few dollars into gold
equity." (6) Here’s what the stock has done since that
very day (right). NEM has rallied 74.5% since
February 27th close, while the GDX is up 51.5%. Now
for sure NEM has been fortunate to hit the tailwind of
the big move in gold between then and now and a
monkey with a dartboard would have been able to
pick any number of winners for the gold producer
sector. Also, the two-year chart pitting NEM against
the same GDX squiggly line shows what the M&A process with Newcrest did for NEM stock…
…but we’ve already thrown all the brickbats we could muster at NEM and Palmer in that period
and that’s not what we’re about today. Credit where it’s due and Palmer’s call in late February
was spot on correct. Therefore it’s only correct that I eat a few of my own words on this subject
and while we could get cute and point to all the times in 2023 that we forecast NEM would
under-perform, the best slice of crow comes from Palmer’s Bloomie show which elicited
comment in IKN772 dated March 3rd. At the time, I admitted that I hadn’t paid much attention
to the NEM CEO’s style up to that point and wrote it up in a disparaging way:
“…a thrusting style and tone that would suit a junior mine CEO perfectly, but sounded like
a spoof from the persona at the helm of the world’s #1 goldie.”
16

Fact is, the style may not be to my personal taste but in the six months since then, he’s given
us plenty of substance. My only mitigation in that note was to recognize that his timing may
turn out to be correct:
“But what’s really funny was his timing, because his interview may have nailed the
bottom.”
So help me. He did just that. So Mr. Palmer, I doff my cap and admit my error. Happy to do so
too, as what the gold mining sector needs more than anything is a market leader stock that can
impress the generalist world. Keep on rolling, NEM.
The TinyCaps List
After 34 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 54.79% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 248.82 32.35 0.13 100.0%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 85.319 46.93 0.55 307.4%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 33.70 0.315 85.3%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 24.02 0.16 -11.1%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 5.32 0.06 -40.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 5.36 0.075 0.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 12.12 0.17 30.8%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 31.72 0.65 -13.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 39.87 0.14 55.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 18.94 0.16 33.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 54.79%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average rose by 6.06% on the week,
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
which is a small move for these type of stocks when 100%
90%
you consider that there wasn’t a loser among the 80%
ten. That’s rare, so the three UNCH stocks (ARIC.v, 70%
60%
EDG.v, LMS.v) were the only minor drag to the win 50%
registered via the seven uppers (BAY.v, DMX.v, 40%
30%
KLDC.v, PA.v, STS.v, SURG.v, VAU.v). However, 20%
aside from the big but utterly inconsequential 10%
0%
percentage gain in Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v up 33.3%),
all other moves were small. Once again, the action
was not down here at the tinycap end of the
spectrum.
Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v): Up a penny, which isn’t much but it’s the highest close for
several weeks and returns BAY to the “double in a year” category. The company reported news
17
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

early last week along with its Australian JV partner
American West (AW1) (7) on its Storm JV project in
Nunavut Canada (20% free carry in exploration phase
BAY.v, 80% AW1), which was one of the longest “visual
assay” NRs I’ve ever read, if not the longest, with
BAY/AW1 going into great detail about the rocks they’ve
hit and begging the question as to why. If they care so
much about the details, why didn’t they wait until the
QA/QC compliant samples were back from the lab in
order to give us official results? The two-year chart
shows how this thing ran hard around this time last year,
also how all but the earliest adopters of those who
bought in are still underwater.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): I’m no chartist of TA proponent, but I know what anybody into
technical analysis of stock price charts would say after the most cursory glance at the ARIC 12-
month chart:
“Resolution on the way”. Now, I don’t know in which direction this chart is going to resolve, but
we’re now close to the moment when we’re going to find out. But in the meantime, ARIC isn’t
afraid about expanding its team in order to gear up for an exciting future and on Thursday
announced (8) new hires. First up, the chief geologist becomes VP Exploration, leaving room for
a new geo officers in John Scott, named Principal Geologist and Kirmat Noormohamed, the new
Exploration Manager. Also, ARIC has hired Ardem Keshishian to run ID and Corp Dev and for
what it's worth, Ardem is someone with whom I personally have had dealing with previously
and I think he's a great hire for this small and interesting
company. Ardem is smart, insightful and knows how to
work under his own initiative, that's a skill set lacking on
so many IR desks these days.
Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp (KLDC.v): This ten-
day chart has two messages, that volume is tiny and that
if you want to buy some you pay 6c but you want to sell
some, you get 4.5c. A bid/ask you could drive a truck
through. Ignore until further notice and highly unlikely to
make the 2025 list.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
18

Regional politics
Mexican open pits and Sheinbaum: A political addendum
Last week’s note on the situation in Mexico regarding open-pit mining seemed to go down well
with its readership according to feedback received, which is good. And correspondence came
with a few follow-up angles so today we offer a small addendum on the political background in
Mexico and the policy line to expect from Mexico’s new Claudia Sheinbaum government.
As noted last week, I tried keep as close to the main subject as possible, didn’t delve into the
potential international-level repercussions that might stem from taking a hard line on open pit
mining, nor did the note dive deeply into the weird and wonderful world of Mexico politics. One
of the subjects in your feedback was how the NAFTA (these days called USMCA) free trade
agreement between Mexico, USA and Canada fits into the picture and yes, it’s something
certain to be up there in the mind of Sheinbaum and her incoming executive. The free trade
agreement is now 30 years old and while it’s currently being debated on potential reforms,
there’s no doubt about it having stood the test of time and that’s important. Regarding our
specific subject, Mexico will be clear of the threat it poses if they decide to start canceling
concessions or refusing to allow projects to move ahead on the agreed permitting track.
NAFTA/USMCA is a thing and the realpolitik it brings to the table is yet another backstop to the
more radical end of the incoming coalition.
The other subject most covered in feedback is the real political alignment of Sheinbaum and the
incoming Mexico government. I’ve said it before and will say it again, Claudia Sheinbaum is a
pragmatic politico, less radical than AMLO and more conciliatory in nature (anyone who survives
as Mayor of DF Mexico, let alone improves the city in the way she did, has to be a good political
operator). But that hasn’t stopped the queries or doubts and as three people picked a single
subject to in feedback last week on a subject close to my own heart, that of Venezuela and how
its stolen election of late July is perceived, we’re going to use that as our example.
In feedback, three readers pointed out Nicolas Maduro has been invited to Sheinbaum’s
inauguration ceremony, an invitation he has duly accepted. Along the way one pointed me
toward a poster on CEO dot Ca who goes under the handle “porc”, who I now suspect as the
source of concerns. On reading through porc’s posts for a few minutes last week, s/he has
mentioned the Maduro invitation on several occasions and used it to suggest Sheinbaum is
going to be even more radical, or at least as radical, in her political stance as AMLO and that’s
bad news for the mining industry. I’m not going to go into a blow-by-blow refutation of
everything written by porc, but will say s/he brings strong recollection of Brandolini’s Law (9)…
The amount of energy needed to refute BS an order
of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it.”
…and even after all that effort, plenty of people will prefer to remain in fantasy land. Porc’s”
posting history tells me s/he is smart about the risk side of the mining industry and brings
plenty of solid framework to their position, but ultimately is clearly aiming to drag company
share prices down and is most likely a short seller of stock. Be clear, I have no problem with
shorters as long as they stay inside the rules, but in this particular case porc is clearly stretching
in order to instill unfounded fears into shareholders (mostly on the Discovery Silver (DSV.to
board, for what it’s worth, go check it out). Regarding the specific Maduro/Sheinbaum thing,
he’s only giving you half the story, a case of sophism being worse and more pernicious than
outright lying which means it’s time for that Brandolini-esque rebuttal:
Yes, Maduro has been invited to the inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum, that’s because he’s the
President of Venezuela. At this point, feel free to add all the 20/20 hindsight to the 2017 and
2018 election process in Venezuela you want, voice concerns the election was also faked and
robbed by PSUV/Maduro etc, but like it or not he was eventually officially recognized by the
international community as President. Here, late 2024, he is the President and will be until
January 10th, 2025 so as part of the LatAm community, it’s normal that he be invited. In fact,
Mexico has only denied invitations to two LatAm heads of State, inviting all others including
19

“natural” enemies of Morena-style Socialism such as Milei in Argentina. The two personae non
gratae are Daniel Noboa of Ecuador due to his fun trick of invading the Mexico Embassy earlier
this year (and frankly, Mexico has a good diplomatic point here) and Dina Boluarte of Peru, who
AMLO has called an usurper of power ever since she took over from the (still jailed on remand)
Pedro Castillo. Once again, we can argue the toss on this point but Mexico’s refusal to allow
Boluarte to show in her official role is at least consistent with AMLO’s position (and in this case,
be clear that the issue is less about Sheinbaum and her ceremony, more about the way
Boluarte would have to step on Mexican soil as Peru’s Heads of State before AMLO handed over
power).
That’s one thing, another is Mexico’s stated position on the Venezuelan election result and this
is something out poster friend Porc probably decided not to talk about online. Mexico does not
recognize the victory of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and has joined the vast majority of LatAm
states (with the notable exceptions of Nicaragua and Cuba, we should also expect Bolivia to say
something, too) in demanding that Venezuela produce and show the “Actas” (i.e. physical vote
result receipts from each polling station), as required by Venezuela’s own electoral law to make
a result official. As recently as this Friday August 23rd, here’s AMLO on the subject during his
morning presser (10):
“We are going to wait until they publish the “actas” because yesterday in the Venezuela
Electoral Tribunal, they said that President Maduro had won the election but at the same time,
recommended that they publish the “actas”. I believe there is a time limit for this resolution,
therefore we’re going to wait.”
To be clear, Mexico did not go as far as other countries after the Venezuela Supreme Court
(TSJ) ruling last week and was not one of the 11 signing countries of the rejection letter (those
were Chile, Argentina, Costa Rica, Ecuador, USA, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru,
Dominican Republic and Uruguay), but Mexico has taken the same stance as Brazil, Colombia,
Guatemala and Paraguay, to name but four (including the two names that matter). When
pressed on the question, AMLO said that Mexico was “…respectful of decisions made by other
countries, but there were a “ton of” issues and accusations against the government of
Venezuela.” He continued, “But we (Mexico) must act, I repeat, according to our Constitution”
and that “the best foreign policy is a national internal policy.” He went on to quash rumours
flying around Mexico that he is in cahoots with Maduro, had been in contact with Maduro etc.
AMLO said he hadn’t spoken to Maduro since Venezuela’s election campaign period began. “I
haven’t spoken with him and (our government is) very respectful people. A couple of weeks ago
I had a telephone conversation with President Lula (da Silva of Brazil) and with President Petro
(of Colombia) regarding the subject of Venezuela and we agreed on our posture regarding the
issue.”
And that’s about it, three paragraphs to explain why some poster on some bullboard is full of it
regarding Claudia Sheinbaum. However, we must also be clear that these doubts and worries
won’t go away from one day to the next and that the naysayers about Mexico are going to have
plenty of opportunity to worry their readership between now and the moment when it becomes
clear the country isn’t going to “ban open-pit mining”. The reality is more boring, Sheinbaum
will be a less controversial figure, she will bring in tighter controls on mining and will not allow
new concessions to be awarded, but on the other hand we can also look forward to permits
actually being awarded for companies and projects that comply with new regulations and are
given the green light by local communities and that’s far better than the situation under the
outgoing AMLO government.
Gustavo Petro is the most important man in Latin America today
After scratching out the framework to the above note, my thoughts floated to semi-connected
subject arising from the current situation in Venezuela and before long, I’d scratched out the
framework for this piece as well. As with the recent coverage of the Venezuela election situation
and its fall-out (mostly IKN794, with bits in 792, 793 and 795), what follows is not directly
related to mining but its potential as a game-changer for the entire South America region has
tipped the balance, so I decided run with it today.
20

Although the baseline subject is still the election in Venezuela, our subject of conversation is not
President Maduro of Venezuela. Instead, it’s the position of President Gustavo Petro of
Colombia as his stance regarding Venezuela is arguably the most significant political jigsaw
piece in South America today. In the past week or so Petro has teamed up with Lula of Brazil
(and potentially AMLO in Mexico, though we’ll have to see what position Sheinbaum takes) to
promote the idea of holding another election this year in Venezuela as a possible solution to the
impasse. This idea was roundly rejected by Venezuela’s opposition when first suggested (main
figure Maria Corina Machado made the obvious point; “And if they lose again, we get a third
election? Then a fourth?”) but it will be interesting to see how far and how hard Petro, Lula
(and others) push this idea in the days and weeks ahead.
That’s because Petro knows he’s in a tight spot, which is basically why this note exists as I want
to lay out the scenario to this audience. To cut to the chase, we know the eventual ascension of
Maduro in January on the back of his stolen election result (that was “ratified” by his close allies
in the Venezuelan Supreme Court (TSJ) last week) would come with a new round of
international sanctions and condemnation. Those would will directly affect the economy of
Venezuela just at a time it’s started to get back on its feet (another story for another day) and
as a result, would inevitably lead to another migration wave leaving Venezuela. The first and
often only port of call for that migration wave is obvious, it’s Colombia, as the routes are now
laid out and understood but this time, things wouldn’t merely be as bad for Colombia as they
were in the 2017 to 2020 period when Venezuelans staged their mass exodus, they’d be a lot
worse. This time around, with the mode of migration established and millions of Venezuelans
already living in Colombia ready to accept their brethren, give them a home, a plate of food,
help them set up etc (in order to do what the vast majority of Venezuelan migrants do in the
world, i.e. work for an honest wage and send money back home to support their families), not
only would Venezuelans leave in their millions but they’d leave quickly, in one major direction
and would complement the ex-pat community that’s already a bone of political and social
contention in Colombia. While the above arguments also apply to all countries with a growing
Venezuelan expat community such as Peru, Chile, Ecuador and even countries on the other side
of the Darien Gap such as Mexico and The USA, the brunt of the exodus will be Colombia’s to
handle and that’s a serious issue for President Gustavo Petro today. Bullet points:
o We know Petro is left wing and a natural ally of Maduro’s
o We know he will not want to take the most obvious position regarding the Venezuelan
election, tell the truth and accuse his ally of stealing the victory. This is politics, after all.
o We know that if Maduro retains the presidency on January 10th, Venezuela will suffer
serious economic consequences (and for those that doubt, please look at the uptick in oil
exports in the last 18 months and its destination…yes indeed, North America ICE cars)
o We know that if this happens, it will have direct and fast consequences to rank and file
Venezuelans in Venezuela. Hyperinflation will return as soon as the near hard peg of the
Bolivar to the Dollar disappears (it’s been between 36 and 37 to the USD for a long time,
the key to bringing inflation down).
o We know when purchasing power in Bolivares is decimated, Venezuelans will do what they
did before and leave en masse to find work paid in dollars. But this time, its velocity and
numbers would put Colombia as a country under enormous pressure.
o We know this, Petro knows this, too. He needs to find a way out of the Venezuelan
impasse in the next few months, else face the domestic consequences. His vociferous and
militant right wing opposition in Colombia will have a field day, pointing to the wave of
foreigners disrupting life in the country and asking the obvious questions of their President:
“Why did you let this happen to out country?” “Why did not refuse to condemn a stolen
election?” “Are you democratic?” “Is Colombia next?” etc etc.
Petro is left wing, he’s intelligent, he’s insightful and he knows he’s in a real pickle this time. As
the main neighbour to Venezuela and an ideological ally to Maduro (admittedly Petro is a lefty
and Maduro extreme lefty) he needs to calm the brewing storm in Venezuela, less for any
worldview of a Socialist future and more for his own political survival. That’s why you’re hearing
him talk up the idea of running a new election in Venezuela, one with international oversight
and a result that would not be subject to discussion afterward. Be clear, Petro isn’t dumb and
21

knows full well who won on July 28th, but he also knows he’s seomwhat trapped inside the lie of
his ally and it’s this that makes Petro the most important person in South America today. The
clock is ticking and unless they find a diplomatic solution soon, the situation will blow up in his
face. If he decides to go with Maduro’s flow, support the obvious lie of his victory and recognize
Maduro as President 2025 to 2031 he puts Colombia and (more to the point) his own
government under serious risk. His is the first ever left wing democratic government of
Colombia in the modern era and if it unravels, socialism is highly unlikely ever to return and will
take a serious body blow over the entire continent. Now, you might think that’s a good thing
(and on a philosophical level I’d agree) and as an outsider, you’d be more than happy to see
near-term turmoil in order to forge and long-term solution. That’s as maybe, but the subject
here is Gustavo Petro’s opinion rather than mine or yours, he’s the guy in the hot seat and the
person with big decisions to make. If he outright supports Maduro, he knows he’s supporting a
stolen election and his democratic credentials are seriously damaged. If he tries the passive
approval route and attempts to remain non-committal about the election theft in Venezuela
without trying to find a solution, the wave of migration is going to happen anyway and he’ll be
taken to the cleaners inside Colombia. It’s not the poorest country in South America but it’s far
from rich and is already straining to support the integrated immigration wave of a few years
ago. On this subject, please don’t take my word for it and talk with social scientists, but I’ve
read enough decent, level-headed journalism to understand that a new influx of a couple of
million souls into Colombia would be country-altering. On the other hand, if Petro decides to tell
the truth in public about the stolen election he blows his own political base apart. Under these
circumstances it’s unsurprising to see him grasp for (what seems to be the only) middle-ground
option out there, to move for a new election. And sure enough Lula in Brazil, also under
pressure for his soft support of Maduro*, is also pushing this idea. So far without much traction
as neither the Venezuela opposition nor Maduro want a re-run. In the case of Maduro, he
knows he’ll lose again but this time, while the world is watching closely. As for the opposition, it
has a significant advantage by not agreeing to this plan immediately (or at all). By the way, he’s
not the subject today bur Maduro’s plan is simple, it’s the same he used in 2018 of waiting out
the storm and pretending everything’s all right. He got away with it before and I suppose he
thinks he can do it again, but this time around those calling foul on the election have
overwhelming evidence of wrongdoing, that aside to the knock-on effects to neighbouring
countries we’re considering today.
The bottom line: Most people think Maduro is the person with most to lose for any deterioration
of the Venezuela issue but the biggest potential loser is Gustavo Petro. Maduro has his “run
away” parachute and we’ve already had countries such as Guatemala offering him political
asylum as well as Maria Corina Machado offering a deal of “just leave, take your corrupt millions
and don’t come back” to her adversary. Meanwhile, Petro is staring down the barrel of serious
social upheaval in Colombia due to the dirty deeds of his neighbour and supposed ally, the type
that brings down governments and/or sees ex-mandatories leave in disgrace. What’s more, the
clock is ticking as the January 10th deadline and the new mandate in Venezuela looms larger. In
theory at least there is time to organize and run a second election in Venezuela between now
and then, but with Maduro set against the idea and the opposition not falling for that trap, it’s
unlikely to prosper unless some full-scale diplomatic pressure forces Maduro into submission.
Again unlikely. Therefore, Petro’s political declarations on Venezuela will be as important as any
move on his part to make a re-run election happen and as January closes in, it would be no
surprise to see Petro feel the heat from his own country, break away from Maduro and leave
Venezuela isolated. However, if he doesn’t do so and decides to support Maduro he’s running
an enormous political risk, one that could cause as much disturbance in Colombia as in
Venezuela, cause his own downfall and create a domino effect that changes South America’s
political stance significantly. So even though I’m quite sure he doesn’t want to be, that’s why
Petro is the single most important person in South America today.
*However, Lula does not have the direct threat of mass migration hanging over his head. For one Brazil is bigger and
has the urban infrastructure to better handle an influx, for another geography makes overland Venezuela-Brazil very
difficult and even dangerous. Lula’s critics go after him mostly for his ideology, not for fear of what might happen to
Brazil.
22

Peru’s growth plans are based on mining and public spending
Friday saw Peru’s Ministry of the Economy and Finances (MEF) publish its annual “Multi-Annual
Macroeconomic Framework” (Marco Macroeconómico
Multianual), this time the 2025-2028 period is the main
focus but it also provides comment on how 2024 is
shaping up (11). I’ll include this table (right) from the
document without translation or much comment as a
reference point, as we’re going to keep this to mining as
much as possible but what the MEF projections show
include GDP growth this year of 3.2%, then 3.1% in 2025.
Those global GDP projections are fueled by 1) public
sector investment (+8.0% and +6.9% respectively) and
expected export growth (+4.0% and +3.7% respectively).
Interestingly, both those are closely tied to the mining
industry as around 70% of Peru’s exports in USD value
come from mining (and around 60% from the copper/gold
combo alone), then comes public spending as the only
way of ramping that up by double the growth rate of other
sectors without decimating one’s currency is to have
dollars flowing into international reserves.
As for mining investment, that’s a sub-set of private investment and once again, we see Peru
leaning heavily on mining for its projections. For 2024 Peru expects private investment to
expand by 2.5%, the growth dependent on the 5.5% increase in mining. The same thing
happens next year, with private investment slated to grow by 3.0% and inside that, mining
investment by 3.5% (see page 45 for the details on that), while non-mining private investment
improves by 2.1% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. In other words, growth for the next two years is
based on:
o Exports (i.e. the hard dollars entering Peru from mining activity)
o Public Spending (made possible by those hard dollars)
o Mining investment leading private sector FDI
Those are not the policy forecasts of a country looking to scare away the mining sector. To
round off, we note that Peru’s MEF 2025 projections are largely based on two new projects
getting off the ground, namely Zafranal (copper, Teck, Arequipa region) and Corani (silver, Bear
Creek, Puno region). That latter name should register with readers of The IKN Weekly as it’s
our current #2 silver spec play from the three dedicated silver stocks we own (or #1 spec if
you, like me, consider SILV a real investment and BCM.v a more important spec trade than
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) and according to Peru’s MEF (translation from page 46) "The Corani
project (U$579m) is waiting on metallurgical test results and the evaluation of its financing
alternatives" and once they are complete, construction should begin.”
The USA on tour and talking mining
No matter what the political stripe of the US administration, be it GOPpy or DEMmy, one of its
classic moves in modern times has been to ignore Latin America for three and a half years and
then suddenly remember there’s a whole bunch of people living down that way during its final
months and “do something” and sure enough, the Biden admin has lived up to that mediocre
standard, doing nothing to stop the rise in political power of China in the region and only now
sending one of its minor lackeys to talk seriously with the small brown people. This time around
it’s fallen to the Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment, one Jose
W. Fernandez, who is currently on a three nation tour taking in will travel to Argentina, Ecuador
and Peru with the objective to (we quote (12)) “…engage key partners in the Western
Hemisphere on critical minerals supply chains and developments in the Americas Partnership for
Economic Prosperity, and to promote trade and economic opportunities with the United States.”
23

Three countries deemed “US-friendly” and from right of the political spectrum, also surprising
nobody. His first stop was Argentina (he’s currently on leg two in Ecuador with Lima Peru on
Wednesday and Thursday) and what he did there is the reason this visit makes our pages (13):
United States and Argentina have signed an agreement that aims to strengthen their cooperation
regarding critical minerals, the US State Department said on Thursday, following a signing
ceremony in Buenos Aires.
“The Memorandum (of Understanding) sets the direction for further collaboration in critical mineral
resource sector governance, investment, and global supply chain security,” it said in a statement.
A MOU may seem a little milquetoast (especially in the world of mining, where such documents
are often not even worth the paper they’re printed on but in this case, the MOU Argentina
signed with The USA really means something, as it now allows Argentina to pitch to all
countries in the USA’s Minerals Security Partnership at once (14), a list of 14 plus the entire EU
region. This should allow the country to market new concession areas in a more efficient way.
Mr. Fernandez will also be talking mining in Ecuador and Peru, but Argentina is the only one to
get a dedicated deal on mining this trip.
Market Watching
Deferred
Back to work next week, guys. The excuses for my laziness are running out
Conclusion
IKN797 is done, we end with bullet points:
 While musing on the potential of buying some American Eagle (AE.v) on TwitterX last
week, at one point I wrote the following about buying up stock that had just dumped
by 30% or so: “Would I be profiting from the pain of others? Yep, probably, but this is
capitalism.” I’m still relaxed about the thought, for what it’s worth. Buying some AE
next week.
 Enough Mexico politics for a while. Its Congress reconvenes on September 1st (two
Mondays’ time) and we’ll keep an eye on the passage or otherwise of that contentious
open pit mining bill, but please understand that the chances of it becoming law are still
as vanishingly small as they were last weekend. Whatever the lower house does, the
Senate is going to block.
 Rio2 (RIO.v) is now in its sweet spot, ready for a re-rate and with gold price moving in
its favour, our long-suffering underwater position may finally show some green ink
soon.
 Meanwhile, I see the betting markets now have the US election as a 50/50 coin toss. I
think we need to start putting some extra thought to potential “drill baby drill” plays to
take advantage of a Trump victory.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
24

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-intersects-302-metres-of-1.09-copper-equivalent-within-606-
metres-of-0.74-copper-equivalent/
(2) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-intercepts-175-m-of-1-g-t-gold-eq-275-m-of-0.9-g-t-gold-eq-and-
108-m-of-1-g-t-gold-eq-all-from-surface-at-nak/
(3) https://x.com/Mark_IKN/status/1825879890769621281?t=bWVbbAIdpMrgnU6dppsMLQ&s=03
(4) https://www.mining.com/web/bhps-return-to-argentina-marks-new-hope-for-untapped-copper-mines/
(5) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-rises-on-falling-inventories-improving-demand/
(6) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-02-27/newmont-ceo-on-share-buybacks-copper-projects-video
(7) https://astonbayholdings.com/news/large-scale-copper-targets-at-depth-take-shape-at-the-storm-project-nunavut-
canada/
(8) https://awaleresources.ca/2024/08/22/awale-announces-appointment-of-key-personnel/
(9) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law
(10) https://acn.com.ve/mexico-aun-no-reconoce-triunfo-maduro/
(11) https://www.gob.pe/institucion/mef/campa%C3%B1as/75291-marco-macroeconomico-multianual-2025-2028
(12) https://www.mining.com/web/us-inks-critical-minerals-cooperation-deal-with-argentina/
(13) https://www.elinversorenergetico.com/argentina-firmara-un-acuerdo-con-estados-unidos-por-litio-y-cobre/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
25

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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