IKN #796Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 796, August 18th 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Gold 2500, Gold Fields (GFI) and Osisko Mining (OSK.to) is a
Big Deal.
Fundamental Analysis: Catching up with Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) (DPMLF).
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to), Florida Canyon Gold Inc (FCGV.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Contango ORE (CTGO),
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Hercules (BIG.v), C3 (CCCM.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Franco-Nevada (FNV), Barrick (GOLD), Lundin Gold (LUG.to)
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Palamina Corp (PA.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v), Awalé
Resources (ARIC.v), Endurance Gold (EDG.v).
Regional Politics: Mexico’s open pit mining ban, Argentina: Chubut RIGI sans mining.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main section is probably the note on the news out of Mexico last week that got
the mining sector jittery about the country’s future as a reasonable jurisdiction to go
mining. That’s in Regional Politics.
 The other bit that may be worth reading is on the importance of the deal between Gold
Fields (GFI) and Osisko Mining (OSK.to) as announced last week. We have a new
marker set for deals between big producer and medium-sized producers and I think it’s
a Big Deal. Which is why it says as much in the title line. That’s the main intro note and
it’s just a few inches down from these words.
 Today’s main fundies note isn’t a long one but the subject is overdue, as I’ve managed
to ignore Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) and its excellent 2024 performance to date
despite it being one of the stocks brought into the Producer Basket this year. We run
over the numbers and make a strategic-level call on ownership.
 Copper is looking good again and it’s not due to any strike/non-strike at La Escondida.
Check out the Copper Basket for that.
Gold 2500
Quite a week for the monetary metal:
1

I’ve gone with the 12 month chart of spot gold, because of the perspective it gives from the
U$1,812/oz of just ten months ago. If you were smart enough to buy gold on that bottom tick
you’d now be 38% up on your position, quite a thing for something as supposedly staid and
defensive as gold. That didn’t last long of course, but it’s also notable that anytime gold traded
under U$2,000/oz between November and February 2024 it was bought up, all in preparation
for The Big Move.
The IKN Weekly isn’t the place to come for whoops, yells and hi-fives over the gold price, now
even when it breaks a milestone number such as the one on Friday. Gold is the cornerstone,
the base upon which our more speculative investments are based and it pays not to get hyped
up about its nominal price in US Dollars (or any other currency). What we’re looking for now is
a follow-through with other metals (silver, copper etc) and then real alpha generated by the
underlying stocks. That’s why we care about gold on these pages.
As for the coming week, it’s one of the quiet ones for potentially market-moving US macro
numbers but instead, we have Jackson Hole (aka the Kansas City Annual Conference), which
has come a little earlier in the calendar this year. The economists’ summer pow-wow happens
August 22nd to 24th and as we’ve noted previously, the Jay Powell keynote speech will be the
biggest tell possible about the September FOMC (17th and 18th), with the world and their spouse
now expecting the Fed to start the loosening cycle with a 25 bases points drop. Please note
that the FOMC after that comes fairly rapidly but the dates, November 6th and 7th, come after
the other Big Day in The USA this year, i.e. the election. In other words, nobody’s going to care
about the November meeting and Jay Powell probably gets that, so he’ll get a free pass to do
whatever the Fed wants without making waves.
Gold Fields (GFI) and Osisko Mining (OSK.to) is a Big Deal
Last week saw plenty of real news in our sector as Barrick (GOLD) put in a great quarter, the
price of gold topped and closed out at over U$2,500/oz for the first time ever, we even got a fly
in the ointment from Mexico and the latest reaction to the political uncertainty about mining
there. We cover all those topics in various places this week but for this desk at least, the most
important story of the week was none of those. Here’s the NR that mattered from Monday
morning (1):
TORONTO, ONTARIO – August 12, 2024 – Osisko Mining Inc. (“Osisko“) (TSX:OSK) is pleased to
announce that it has entered into a definitive arrangement agreement dated August 12, 2024
(the “Arrangement Agreement“) pursuant to which Gold Fields Limited, through a 100% owned
Canadian subsidiary (the “Purchaser” or “Gold Fields“), has agreed to acquire all of the issued
and outstanding common shares of Osisko (the “Shares“) at a price of C$4.90 per Share (the
“Consideration“), in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately C$2.16 billion on a fully
diluted basis (the “Transaction“). The Transaction will be completed by way of a statutory plan
of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act (Ontario).
The Consideration represents an approximate 55% premium to the 20‐day volume weighted
average trading price per Share on the Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX“) for the period ending
August 9, 2024, being the last trading day prior to the announcement of the Transaction.
There is logic behind the deal (of course), as we know GFI has been keen on getting a real
foothold in the Canadian mining scene for quite some time (it was in the bidding process for
Great Bear, for example), this specific deal is a logical step forward for GFI as in May 2023 it
went JV on OSK’s flagship Windfall project in Quebec, paying C$600m for a 50/50 share. In the
literature and ConfCalls that came with the deal announcement, GFI made no bones about the
#1 reason to buy OSK (2):
"Deposits with the scale and quality of Windfall, with a highly prospective exploration camp on
top of that, are extremely rare, let alone in a world-class jurisdiction like Québec, Canada,” said
Gold Fields CEO Mike Fraser.
The acquisition was consistent with Gold Fields’ strategy to improve the quality of its portfolio
through investment in high-quality, long-life assets with a low carbon footprint.
"Windfall ticks a number of boxes for us," he said on conference call. "The fact that it is in a tier-
one jurisdiction is an absolute added bonus," said Fraser.
2

That combo of size + jurisdiction makes the difference and, what with the 2023 JV in place and
the two companies already showing a good working relationship at Windfall, it wasn’t so
surprising to see GFI move on OSK.
But what really catches the eye is the deal price.
In one fell swoop, Osisko Mining (OSK.to) shot by over 62% at the opening bell and once the
week was done, the C$2.94 of last weekend to the C$4.77 of today. And on a cash offer to, no
dilution for OSK holders from a GFI share price
that droops on the deal announcement (for more
on that see ITR apparently paying 69c for
FCGV…ugh). After due consideration, I’ve decided
on featuring a long-term price chart of OSK to
show what C$4.90 means in the great context of
things, so aside from the two brief moments of
euphoria in the sector, in early 2022 and the peak
of the post-Covid run and early 2017 when the
gold market turned positive after five years of
drudgery, OSK has never been higher than it is
this weekend.
We should also note, this C$2.16Bn deal is after
OSK had already famed out 50% of its flagship development project to GFI for C$600m and the
Tier 1 South African had that much less to buy. The price was way above the typical “Let’s Say
30%” premium that M&A deals tend to revolve around and as such, there are some far-
reaching implications for the precious metals mining sector. OSK offers size + safety, they knew
that and prior to this friendly deal, the overtures by GFI must have been going on for quite a
while with OSK refusing to budge on anything except a eye-popping price tag. That GFI
relented and decided to pay up say a lot about where this market is going and there are three
factors in play:
 The mining world will pay for producing miners, or late-stage projects with permits in-place.
Buying developers that still need to go through the major part of any permitting track, e.g.
getting an EIA, is less attractive and commands less of a premium in our modern times
when governments suddenly change the rules, move the goalposts and make two year
permit tracks into four years, or four into ten.
 The mining world will pay for size and GFI is willing to pay
up to get 100% control of Windfall. We’ve already seen
this phenomena in action this year in other places, for
example in Kinross compared to Barrick. Back in early
2022 when Barrick stepped away from the bidding to buy
Great Bear (ex-GBR) and let Kinross take the prize, GOLD
shares rose on the news and CEO Bristow’s comments
about “paying too much”. Suddenly, in 2024, that attitude
and short-term gain in 2022 looks rather myopic (chart
right).
 The mining world will pay for jurisdiction. Resource nationalism is rife, political risk is
through the roof and Tier 1 precious metals miners, after raking in the cash, now have the
firepower to apply to assets that will improve their overall corporate risk profile and
(presumably) improve their credit status. Paying up for a goldie in Quebec Canada is long-
term planning and what generational mining companies do.
Put those three items together and you get last week’s eye-popping deal and ticket price, which
is all logical and fair with 20/20 hindsight but does of course beg the questions such as “Hey
Mark, if all this is so logical and understandable, why weren’t you long OSK.to before the deal
was announced?”
3

Good question. The answer is straightforward, I thought OSK was expensive compared to what
it offered. Well, not exactly expensive but not standout cheap compared to other companies
(e.g. Eldorado Gold (EGO), my purchase last week). That was my opinion but obviously not
GFI’s, which means I was wrong and my opinion is now out of date. If a Tier 1 pays a 55%
premium to market in cash, it means another Tier 1 will do the same for a company in similar
circumstances and that changes the game. And that’s why this deal is important and the
biggest news of last week, we have a new paradigm for precious metals producer valuations.
It’s all well and good in theory to say “gold miners are undervalued” but they can stay that way
for a long, long time. It’s only when a deal such as this shows up that the rest of the world
realizes we industry watchers weren’t joking. The new paradigm is fairly straightforward, too.
We know:
 High gold prices induce consolidation in the precious metals sector.
 We now have high gold prices
 It therefore stands to reason we’re about to enter a new season of M&A
 With this deal premium, GFI has set the price on the most sought-after assets, ones
that are 1) in safe jurisdictions 2) in production or at the back end of the permitting
track and 3) the size that moves the dial for Tier One producers.
Therefore, it’s time to buy Tier 2 producers that fit the bill. On that score, I currently find my
portfolio positioned badly as I’ve always tended to go for the riskier end of the political range.
That’s what comes from running a portfolio that centres (most of) its efforts on Latin America,
the local knowledge that comes from knowing country or region X isn’t as unstable as most
people think doesn’t make its perceived risk any better, not for M&A. GFI shows Tier Ones are
going to skim off the cream and worry about the price later, as such you may want to ignore
the Stocks to Follow list for the rest of 2024 and consider these companies, ones that looked
expensive right up to last Monday morning:
 Wesdome (WDO.to)
 Alamos Gold (AGI)
 New Gold (NGD)
Of the three, WDO seems the most obvious M&A target in Canada right now. The time is right,
Kiena is up and running and showing its worth and development at Eagle shows it has a lot
more high grade rock to offer in the future. I’ll give myself one cheer for including it in the 2024
specifically because it was shaping as a buyout target, but all this year my danged obstinacy
has stopped me from paying up for quality because “cheaper ounces are available in South
America, guys!” More fool me and not for nothing is WDO up 74% in 2024 YTD and the best
performing stock in this year’s Producer Basket. So if there’s a moral to this week’s main intro
section, it’s probably something like “do as I say not as I do”, the type of statement that should
get me drummed out of the mining analysts’ club.
But for that they’d have to make me join, first. Ugh, not going there.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Catching up with Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) (DPMLF)
Not a big main section this week, instead we run a somewhat overdue look at one of the best
performers in the 2024 Producer Basket, Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) (DPMLF) as up to
now, it’s had very little mention} on these pages despite its strong 2024 performance.
Brought into the Producer Basket this year to add leverage in what we’d assumed would be a
good year for gold prices (that bit is working at least), we figured that its relatively small
market cap compared to the Newmonts and Agnicos of this world would help the Basket in its
annual quest to beat the GDX benchmark. Also and as noted when presenting the pick at the
4

start of the year (IKN763 dated December 31st) it had recently taken a price hit due to its move
on junior developer stock Osino and that had offered a better entry point than expected at the
start of 2024.
That’s worked out well. The US listing DPMLF, used to track in the Producer Basket, is up a cool
52.1% YTD and that’s been a combo of three factors. The above chart has notes on the main
moments, here’s a little list:
1) Great results. DPM has continued to deliver on production and profit, with the recent
2q24 results particularly strong.
2) Losing Osino. At the start of the year DPM was set to win its expansion project via the
all-share deal and as such, the market was marking down the stock during the buyout
process. However, a Chinese interloper arrived on the scene in the shape of Yintai Gold
(now re-named to Shanjin Intl Gold) which outbid DPM and when DPM announced it
would not come back over the top and compete for Osino, the market rewarded the
share price by handing back its discount.
3) Recent price action. Those sparkling 2q24 financial results (as well as a U$0.04
quarterly dividend) announced on August 1st sparked a sharp rally in the stock price, as
seen in this ten-day chart pitting DPM.to against GDX.
For sure part of the rally is due to gold moving above the magic U$2,500/oz line but of course,
we could say that about all components of the GDX and as seen above, DPM has out-performed
peers handily. So to get a better idea, we now run a few of its production numbers and follow
with the main takeaways from its financials.
DPM runs two operations at the moment, namely its Chelopech and Ada Tepe mines both
located in Bulgaria. Celopech is the star turn of the two, with gold and copper production and
significant reserves and resources. Ada Tepe is also a good and profitable operation, but these
days is getting long in the tooth and is slated to wind down production at the end of 2026. Until
this year it also ran the Tsumeb smelter complex in Namibia but that is now on the way out,
having been sold to the highest bidder for U$49m with the deal now almost closed. It also has
a suite of development assets, including the difficult and community-blocked Loma Larga gold
5

project in Ecuador and the Coka Rakita and Timok gold projects in Serbia. They’ve also had
their permitting and political issues that have slowed down development, so it wasn’t so
surprising to see DPM move to purchase Osino in order to improve its project pipeline.
That’s the background, with DPM dependent on two gold mines and looking to improve its
growth pipeline in the near future, before Ada Tepe runs out of feed and has to close. However,
DPM brings plenty of advantages to the table and they start here:
DPM: Gold production and sales, per qtr
While gold production averaging around the 60k oz/qtr point isn’t the biggest in the world (with
the copper by-product out of Chelopech covering between 15% and 20% of gross revenues per
quarter) these mines stand out as very efficient, low cost operations:
Thanks to that strong copper credit, costs per ounce of gold at DPM are very competitive and
have only brushed the U$1,000/oz AISC line twice in recent quarters, but the latest result of
just U$710/oz hat took advantage of the spike in copper prices was outstanding. Combine that
with the rise in gold, e.g. DPM reported a received average price of U$2,338/oz in 2q24, up
from U$2,072/oz in 1q23 (which has of course continued in Q3, we know that) and a healthy
received price for copper of U$4.42/lb and you get the big jump in raw margin per ounce of
gold, as seen above right. When that’s moved
over to the P+L, we see the difference (right).
Record revenues, costs that remain steady in
the U$60m to U$65m range with very few
exceptions and a resulting EBIT that’s the
envy of several much larger gold miners. We
also add in the net earnings (from continuing operations, the final net number is slightly
complicated by the pending sale of Tsumeb)
to show the close relationship between the
two, but we care most about the cash flow at
this company.
6
47196 86526 76586 03407 43266 02837 18375 90726 67765 13856 99436 56056 51676 46596 21255 32806
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
Oz Au DPM: Copper production and sales, per qtr
Gold prod
Gold sold
source: company filings
065.7 667.7 972.7
864.9
857.7 571.8 145.6 242.7 517.6 627.6 853.6 585.6 996.6 900.7 853.6 585.6
11
10
9
8
7
6
5 4
3
2
1
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
Mlbs Cu
Copper prod
Copper sold
source: company filings
DPM.to: Gold AISC, per qtr
156 225 506 107 757 486 297 199 8001 278 337 119 678 388 017
1200
1000
800
600 400
200
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
DPM: Margin to AISC, per qtr Oz Au
source: company filings
7521 8911 9901 3201 2911 0201 127 447 6401 8221 0101 9411 9811 8261
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 600 400
200
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
U$/oz
source: company data, IKN calcs
DPM: Earnings overview
869.211
869.211
863.621 179.54 815.231 371.75 531 835.43 933.931
588.36
197.321 972.64 838.651
989.97
200
180
160
140
120
100 80
60
40
20
0
22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
U$m
revenues
EBIT
net earnings from cont.op
source: company filings

That’s because of the main attraction at DPM, its stellar balance sheet position. The overview
assets and liabilities charts give clues to why this company is a stand-out, with rising asset
valuations and liabilities that are very low compared to current assets. The numbers have been
affected slightly since 3q23 when Tsumeb moved to “under disposal” and both its asset and
liability carries moved to the current end of the ledger, but overall the numbers add up the
same way as ever and assuming the deal closes this quarter, all that will disappear and in its
place, another U$49m in cash. What really matters on these overview charts are the Y-axis
scales, as assets are gauged at a factor of ten over liabilities
DPM: Assets breakdown, per qtr
2000 1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Then there’s a the green part of the asset overview chart, cash treasury and this is why we
DPM is the star that it is:
Meanwhile, working cap has risen in the same period from U$428m to U$792.783m as at end
2q24, a mightily impressive act of cash harvesting. Indeed, if we go back a couple more years
and consider DPM cash treasury on an annual basis since 2019, the way in which it has
accumulated treasury is perhaps even more impressive and all this while running a share
buyback program that’s reduced the share count from over 190m to 180.051m as at end 2q24.
The accumulation of cash at DPM has been seriously impressive, but it’s also the reason why
the stock doesn’t appeal at the moment as a way to play the increase in gold prices. With
180.051m shares out and a share price of U$9.78 this weekend, DPM is a U$1.76Bn market
7
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
U$m DPM: Liabilities breakdown, per qtr
220 cash&eq inventory 200 other current property/plant/equip
180
other fixed
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
source: company filings
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
U$m
LT liab current liab
source: company filings
DPM: Treasury, per qtr
83.433 283
23.324 95.914 81.334 40.374 59.145 66.265 92.595 99.706 76.107
800
700
600
500
400 300
200
100
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
U$m DPM: Working cap, per qtr
source: company filings
99.724 44.254 79.074 4.784 40.415 82.645 43.436 4.236 60.596
16.147 87.297
800
700
600
500
400 300
200
100
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
U$m
source: company filings
DPM Cash treasury at period end, 2019 to date
44.32
35.941
83.433
81.334
92.595 76.107
DPM: Shares Out U$m
800
700
600
500 400
300
200
100
0
end 2019 end 2020 end 2021 end 2022 end 2023 2q24
source: company filings
4.181 0.281 0.281 5.191 4.191 8.091 8.091 0.091 0.091 7.981 2.681 3.381 4.181 4.181 1.081
220
200
180
160
140
120 100 80
60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
source: company filing
serahs
fo snoillim

capper this weekend but its Equity Value is only just over the billion mark, what with that large
lump of cash in treasury. At this stage in the business cycle that makes DPM an near-obligatory
player in the M&A market, as it either has to do something with that large and ever-growing
cash pile or somebody is going to come along and do it for them (by taking them out and
getting the mine assets at a discount). We already know DPM’s aims on this score, its move to
buy out Osino was eventually unsuccessful but showed corporate plans clearly. Couple that with
the recently accelerated return of capital to shareholders, via 10m or so shares bought back
and the 4c quarterly dividend payment, and DPM profiles as a company with a lot of cash and
not much to do with it. Its development book is stuck due to permitting problems in both Serbia
and Ecuador, it needs a new mine to fill the gap as Ada Tepe winds down.
This, above all, is why DPM is not a buy at current levels. At some point this company is going
to go back to market and attempt to buy another company, most probably a junior with an
interesting late-stage development project. We know DPM is not afraid of frontier markets and
we also know it now has its eye on West Africa (perhaps Newcore will fit its bill?). Unless it
receives a compelling offer to get bought out by a third party, the next step in DPM’s corporate
life is to go back to market and deploy some of that fat treasury position. That’s going to see
the stock sell off at any level and the recent run makes it all the more vulnerable. I’m certainly
happy to have included DPM in this year’s Producer Basket and the luck in starting the paper
trade when its price was depressed during the Osino offer period has a fair bit to do with its
2024 performance, but there is a limit to its progress and strongly profitable or not, the current
valuation compared to its production base that’s now squarely dependent on one mine is
looking priced close to perfection. As good as it is, DPM is not a purchase at the moment.
Stocks to Follow
If it weren’t for the hole left in the side of the boat when Minera Alamos (MAI.v) got hit by a
panic seller on Friday (plenty more on that subject in today’s edition) it would have been a
great week for the portfolio, but that’s life I suppose. There were a total of three losers on our
list of 20 stocks (MAI.v, MARI.to, MENE.v) and only one of them really matters (MAI.v down
8.8%), while six others were unchanged on the week (PGZ.v, OCI.v, ALDE.v, MIRL.cse,
PGDC.v, PAU.cse). That leaves eleven winners so let’s not list them all, instead just the big
moves put in by Newcore (NCAU.v up 17.0%), Florida Canyon (FCGV.v up 13.4%), Contango
(CTGO up 11.6%) and new boy Eldorado Gold (EGO up 9.2%).
With the addition of EGO we’re up to 20 open positions on our Stocks to Follow list, that’s our
self-imposed maximum. Ten of those are in the green, one is UNCH, nine are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.26 23.8% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.59 -26.3% Momentum now building
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$8.39 13.6% Quality Ag/Au, U$12.96 tgt
Eldorado Gold EGO STR BUY U$16.55 11-Aug-24 U$17.68 6.8% new trade, finally long
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v hold C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.55 -12.7% under offer, will hold thru
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.14 -26.3% Overweight position,cheap Cu
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$3.71 21.6% Quality Cu developer
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUY C$1.54 28-Jul-24 C$1.69 9.7% return, (re)starter position
Bear Creek Min BCM.v SPEC BUY C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.33 -12.9% Spec Ag(& Au) trade, 2 buys
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.055 -5.7% Exposed to several good jrs
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.18 7.9% Production re-rate in Q3
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.31 51.2% Cheap Au in West Africa
8

SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.94 30.6% into FY24 news season now
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.23 -23.3% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Red Pine Expl RPX.v WATCH C$0.08 4-May-24 C$0.085 6.3% Special situation, poss trade
Fitzroy Min FTZ.v WATCH C$0.17 4-Aug-24 C$0.175 2.9% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Patagonia Gold PGDC.v WATCH C$0.02 4-Aug-24 C$0.02 0.0% Rio Negro trade op, watching
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.08 -5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.095 -79.2% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
Western Copper WRN.to July'24 C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.53 -2.5% Sold on regional risk
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies this week. Just a few brief things this time,
the idea was to be fully bought, locked and loaded for when metals prices started to run. Gold
last week did its thing, it’s time to hold tight.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We need to go through this conversation again:
We cover the details of the news out of Mexico last week in Regional Politics below, here we
see some of the fall-out of the market’s reaction to the “news” (ironic punctuation, see below
for more) and the way volume accelerated as somebody, somewhere decided enough was
enough and their nerves got the better of them.
I think they are incorrect in dumping, but that’s just me. Also me (and to repeat a previously
aired argument), when it comes to MAI I know that loyalty is out of fashion in capital markets,
but that’s why MAI remains the Top Pick. We went through the same type of hinterland period
with Rio2, I took plenty of flak for not abandoning that position as well, here’s the same. As
2024 has rolled out I’ve been clear about the way we’d need to wait until the new Sheinbaum
government were installed before we got any movement on the permitting front, that waiting
period has been long but we’re now something like two months away from the time window in
which something may happen. A the same time, MAI’s “Plan B” at Santana will begin to bear
fruit in Q3 and beyond, we’re finally going to see improved production even if pad space isn’t
optimum as yet. This isn’t the time to bail on MAI and if you, like me, have applied patience to
the trade position there’s no reason to give up at this point.
9

And by the way, I’m still in the green on this trade. That may not be your case, but even with
the painful downturn I and drudge period it makes my holding that much easier.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): POSITION OPENED. A decent start, too. As per last week
and IKN795 I bought, no surprises there. The day I
decided to pull the trigger on EGO it was a sub-U$16
stock, three days later when publishing IKN795 last
Sunday it was a U$16.19 stock, by the time Monday
came it had already shot higher and I had to pay
U$16.55, but even that looks like a bargain compared to
this weekend. It’s always nice to start on the right side
of a trade and the close Friday helped assuage the
regrets about not having pulled the trigger earlier.
Better late than never, I suppose.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Another decent
performance from what is essentially a defensive copper play, its impeccable fundamentals will
make it attractive to one type of audience but won’t bring in the speculators. Pleased to be
owning this again.
Florida Canyon Gold Inc (FCGV.v): A rebound, as the market started to come for the
speculative end of gold market and bought up Integra
(ITR.v) stock accordingly.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): The dump as reported last
weekend looked for all the world like overselling and that’s
what it turned out to be, NCAU recovering all week on
reasonably modest volume and reclaiming thr 3-handle.
This is what these smallcaps do, so the only way to
combat the ride is to be clear about your own objectives
then stick with them.
Contango ORE (CTGO): The volatile CTGO continues to
do its thing, this time rebounding more sharply than its peers and moving back over the U$20
line. That’s good. At some point it’s going to show what it can really do and that will probably
coincide with my sale and profit take.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Down a tad on quiet trading, despite reporting its 2q24
financials last week. The company numbers remain tight and there’s plenty of cash to see it
through to the PFS and eventual marketing to the highest bidder, the only thing that stood out
was MARI’s use of its ATM facility to sell 1m shares into the market during the last quarter.
While I do “get it” in this case, it’s nowhere near as toxic an ATM strategy as the average junior
and this was always going to be MARI’s quiet year
before the 43-101 is published and things hot up. All the
same, using an ATM means the share price is being sat
on by its own share emissions and explains why the
stock price can’t hold above $4.00. Overall I’m okay
about it, as I’m in at a great price and ready for when
the real action starts. However, until then there will be
no further additions because if the company is keen on
selling its own shares, there’s no reason for a minnow
retail to be its buyer.
10

The Copper Basket
After thirty-three weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 6.55% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1894.40 10.14 41.6%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 501.68 3.10 -24.9%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 345.44 3.71 8.2%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 248.05 8.40 -28.8%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 177.95 1.63 -6.9%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 159.63 0.94 5.6%
7 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 154.77 0.67 -51.4%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 151.49 0.74 17.5%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 85.29 0.36 -4.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 74.72 0.64 146.2%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 30.81 0.29 61.1%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 28.13 0.44 -24.1%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 21.71 0.125 4.2%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 20.42 0.33 -45.9%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 11.37 0.055 -21.4%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 6.55%
The basket added a couple of clicks thanks to a 25% The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
mix of seven winners (NGEX.to, BIG.v, OCO.v,
20%
CCCM.v, KDK.v, QCCU.v, ECU.v), one
15%
unchanged stock (ALDE.v) and seven losers
10%
(SLS.to, LA.v, MARI.to, ASCU.to, FDY.to, AE.v,
5%
COR.v), so despite the even stevens headcount
0%
the average went up. That’s because three of
-5%
those winners were big percentage moves so a
-10%
cheer for C3 Metals (CCCM.v up 34.7%),
Hercules Metals (BIG.v up 19.6%) and NGEx
Resources (NGEX.to up 11.8%).
The relief rally was fueled by…yes you guessed it…an improvement in the price of copper at
market with our reference contract, the near-
dated Comex futures (currently HGU24,
September delivery) bouncing from under the
U$4.00/lb levels of the week before last and
seeing constant buying all week to close at a far
healthier looking U$4.14 and change.
So copper prices did well last week, which got the
world’s business media reaching to explain why
the metal they’d written off just days ago had
rallied by 5.6% in the space of just a week.
Fortunately, the very brief industrial action called
by workers at La Escondida in Chile gave them an
easy out. First here’s Reuters with the news, then
we’ll explain why it’s a load of nonsense (3):
A strike at mining giant BHP's Escondida mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine that
accounted for nearly 5% of global supply in 2023, sparked concerns about supply disruptions.
"The (copper) bears are worried about the mine's history of long strikes," said Sandeep Daga, a
director at Metal Intelligence Centre.
A 44-day strike in 2017 at Escondida sparked a copper price rally. There were also other strikes in
2006, 2011 and 2015."
11
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81
source: IKN calcs

Esteemed audience, correlation is not causation. The simple fact that this absolute balderdash
didn’t stop the narrative from propagating among wire services and the metals commentariat.
We’ve been here before and said the same thing, here it comes again:
MINE STRIKES DO NOT AFFECT THE PRICE OF COPPER
Sorry, they just don’t, intuitive though it may seem, not even at the world’s biggest mine. To
put the above into perspective: La Escondida is indeed the world’s largest copper mine and
does account for an average of around 1.2m tonnes copper per year, which is around 5% of
primary copper supply to the market (though that drops to around 3.5% when secondary
supply is taken into account). But let’s go with the primary numbers and those given by the
report
 La Escondida: 1.2mmt per year
 World supply: 24mmt per year
So, 44 days of stoppage in 2017 would have been a drop of around 144,700 tonnes to the
world market. That’s 0.6% of copper produced that year, or if you like a little over two days’
worth of total global demand for primary copper (again, dilute by another 20% if you include
secondary supply such as scrap, so perhaps 0.45%) and if you think that’s enough to cause the
market to bend out of shape, I have a bridge to sell you. The other little detail about that March
2017 strike was that it started in February 2017 and ended in March, but copper prices didn’t
start moving that year until June. Finally and while we’re at it, the 2006 strike at La Escondida
lasted 25 days, the 2011 strike lasted 14 days and while the 2015 strike lasted 27 days, it was
not an all-out strike and only partially affected production.
Maybe if one day La Escondida or El Teniente or Chauquicamata went on an all-out 6 month
stoppage then, and only then, would you have my attention on this subject. But what we last
week was a ghost, sent to spook you and to give people who by habit and nature reverse-
engineer reasons to fit market moves a good excuse to sound clever when they are the exact
and 180° opposite to that.
For what it’s worth, if you want my opinion the driver of last week’s rally was improved demand
prospects in China. There is anedoctal evidence, after all (4):
The Ministry of Commerce, along with six other departments, has issued a notice regarding further
efforts to promote vehicle trade-ins for new ones.
The notice details an increase in subsidy standards for replacing old vehicles. Specifically, the
subsidy for purchasing a new energy passenger vehicle after scrapping the old one has been
doubled from ¥10,000 to ¥20,000($1,400-$2,800). For purchasing a fuel-powered passenger
vehicle, the subsidy has also been increased from ¥7,000 to ¥15,000($970-$2,100), more than
doubling the previous amount.
These changes reflect the government's commitment to encouraging the adoption of newer, more
environmentally friendly vehicles.
We’re clear about the amount of copper that goes into the new generation of automotive
vehicles, yes? Good. There’s also market evidence of a pick-up in end-user demand, as seen in
SHFE stocks that dropped by 24kmt last week (details below). We’ve scratched our heads about
this for a while, as the supply glut in SHFE warehouses has lasted way longer than its usual
spike-and-drop after the Chinese New Year, we’re also recently seen China exporting finished
copper to the world and no matter that 100kmt or so is small beer next to the 15mmt of the
stuff they’ll use in 2024, the media message was strong.
However, when the apparent glut began our house theory was that China’s end users (factories
etc) had stocked up to the gills on copper and were staying away from market in a deliberate,
centrally-planned policy decision. We know they’re going to need copper to fuel their economic
expansion (copper is different in this respect, it’s the only one China relies upon from overseas
as its domestic mine supply covers 15% max of demand) and we know that even its more
modest 5% GDP growth targets for 2024, 2025 and beyond will need increasing amounts of
copper supply, but this year China has played a sort of “we don’t want it right now” game. At
this point we underscore one of our basic tenets about this market, never forget that China
prefers to pay the least amount possible for its copper. All’s fair in love and war, so if China
runs a slack demand head fake and pulls down the price of copper on the world stage, well
12

good for them! Smart moves on their part, for a while at least they’ve managed to pull the
levers of capitalism in the country’s favour, but supply/demand will win out in the end and that,
ladies and gents, is what I believe we’re about to witness (I believe). Our original supposition
was that end-users in China would stay away from the copper markets as long as possible and
while that period of time stretched much longer than my original ballpark guess, we’re finally at
that moment. So I applaud China for managing to get spot copper back under U$4.00/lb, at
least for a few days but the bearish party is now over, it’s time for stocks in Shanghai to
dwindle rapidly and the narrative of weak demand in China to look long in the tooth. People
forget just how much of a demand shortfall we’re facing for the metal in 2025 and beyond,
even if the world’s take-up of Electric Vehicles is slower than originally anticipated.
Bottom line: The never-ending debate about The USA and whether we’re in for a hard or soft
landing is one factor for sure, but the biggest one is whether the copper being produced will
find people wanting to use it. It’s a complicated market and as it moves billions of dollars, there
will always be those who will distort things in their favour but on the other hand, over the long-
term copper will respond to the straightforward push-pull of supply and demand, in good old
Adam smith fashion. They don’t call it Dr. Copper and consider this commodity a lead indicator
for many other markets for nothing, after all. So don’t lose sight of the forest for the trees, the
single biggest driver of copper is and will remain its medium to long-term supply deficit and that
should start kicking in around now, 3q24 and 4q24. The first place we’ll see that should be the
SHFE warehouse numbers, which have been artificially high all year but recent weeks,
particularly the last one, have given signals of a China ready to buy up tonnes at these prices.
Just don’t fall for the bunkum about strikes in Chile or Peru making the difference either way,
after all you’d have to look for a long time to find the way in which the lack of concentrate
coming out of Panama Cobre has buoyed up copper prices in 2024.
With that long-ish prelude, it’s now time for our weekly look at world copper inventories, with
data from Cochilco and Richard. Thanks, Richard:
 The aggregate of the three official world inventory systems ended with a drop of 9,911
added 47,123 metric tonnes (mt), with Friday’s total 593,412mt under the 600k line.
 A notable acceleration of the draw downs at SHFE, the first time this year we’ve seen a
larger chunk come off inventories. Stocks dropped by 24,099mt to close at 262,206mt
and to get a handle on what that means, please check the tracking chart below.
 Meanwhile the LME went in the opposite direction, adding another 12,650mt to close
the week at 309,050mt and that means the LME is back to being the Big Dog of the
three, with over 50% of total world stocks under its roofs. It’s been a long time since
we’ve been able to say that, what with the elevated stock levels at the SHFE sticking
around. And once again it was all about tonnages landing in LME Asia warehouses, with
6,300mt into Taiwan and 6,200 into South Korea. The trend remains.
 After its big add the week before, Comex saw more copper arrive and added another
1,538mt to finish the week at 22,156mt. the posited copper glut (or perhaps mini glut)
mentioned last weekend got a little extra evidence in its favour.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows that drop last week, both in context to 2024 and to previous
years. We may be about to see SHFE inventories normalize, as when inventories start dropping
they do so at quite a rate of knots, 50kmt weeks are not unusual.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
13
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data

The unusual bit would be the time of year for the drop, though our theory as laid out above
would at least offer logic for that. Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): It didn’t come as any surprise to see sellers selling early week,
then ASCU was propped by the rebound in our
copper sub-sector (COPX proxy) on low volume,
but still ended the week 3% lower. FWIW I had
an interesting back and forth e-mail conversation
with ASCU IR last week. It was good of that desk
to push back on my criticisms of the ASCU PEA
NR of the week before last and particularly about
its metallurgy testing (or lack of) to date, though
the mail exchange ended when I said that IR
should feel free to forward my observations to
the geologists and metallurgists hired by the
company. They need to hear about the
shortcomings, be they merely perceived or real.
By the way, they’re real.
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): BIG was up big
(geddit?) on no news, the run triggered by the
rise in copper prices and sector rally. As the
chart (right) shows, BIG attracted plenty of
speculative capital and that’s worth
remembering for the next time there’s a move in
the metal. For better or worse, BIG has become
one of the preferred spec vehicles on the
Canadian copper list and gets volume and
interest. That’s a fashion that tends to come and
go, but as long as the volume remains it’s likely
to be volatile even without news flow. Not a
stock or a story that interests me at the
moment, but you flipper and very-near-term
trader types are likely to be more interested.
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): Up 34.7% on the week, which goes to show once again that you
gringos will buy anything. Two weeks of rebound rally on thin volume looks like this (red circle)
on the 12-month chart
14

The Producer Basket
After 33 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 33.98% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 57.87 50.21 21.3%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 39.84 80.00 45.9%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 34.61 19.71 9.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 23.40 121.79 9.9%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 7.43 20.40 24.9%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.22 4.50 18.87 49.3%
7 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.58 17.68 36.3%
8 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.48 5.63 17.0%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 180.051 1.76 9.78 52.1%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.51 10.15 74.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 33.98%
An all-round good week for the basket, with all ten component stocks as winners, a new high-
water mark for the gains this year and a lead on the GDX benchmark of 9.86%. There were
some big moves among the ten as well, with Barrick (GOLD up 13.2%), Lundin Gold (LUGDF up
13.2%) and Hecla (HL up 11.7%) all putting in double figure percentage moves and Eldorado
(EGO up 9.3%) and Dundee (DPMLF up 9.2%) not far behind. In fact, all but one added at
least 5%, with just Franco-Nevada (FNV up 0.6%) lagging behind.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
40% comparative to GDX control
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Franco-Nevada (FNV): The week’s worst performer struggled for three main reasons:
1) Its 2q24 earnings, announced Tuesday August 13th post-close (5), were deemed a miss by
the market (6):
“Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV) reported quarterly earnings of $0.75 per share which missed the
analyst consensus estimate of $0.82 by 8.54 percent.”
For sure not much of a miss, but when you’re defending a U$120+ share price even the best
royaltyco in the world needs to offer more than a forward PE of 40X.
2) FNV “invested in the future” (as they say) by paying Buenaventura U$210m for its wholly-
owned “Chaupiloma Dos” royalty company, the announcement coming on the same day as its
earnings report (7). The main asset is a 1.8% NSR on the entirety of the Yanacocha mine,
including current oxide production and the eventual gold-copper production from the Yanaocha
Sulfides expansion project. Mine owner Newmont (NEM) has hummed and hahed over green-
lighting this expensive project for several years without ever pulling the plug, while it’s a known
fact that BVN doesn’t like the idea of basing the mine plan on a high altitude autoclave. BVN
also needs the money to pay down its debt and get its own projects into production, so on that
level the acquisition makes sense.
3) The more defensive set-up of a royaltyco isn’t going to perform as well as gold producers
when the metal does what it diid last week. That and the ongoing shadow cast over it by the
FM.to copper royalty means the market sees inefficient capital in the near-term.
15
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2.0%
ikn 0.0%
gdx control
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
source: IKN calcs -12.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

The chart shows how FNV got whacked on this double bill of news, recovered slightly the next
day once the “liquidity event” sellers had finished, then proceeded to track the sector on
Thursday and Friday as buyers came for all things metal and mining (this ten-day chart
compared the squiggly line to those of GDX and its main peer rival, Wheaton (WPM)). It smacks
of an FNV getting all the stock negative news out of the way in one fell swoop.
All in all, I wouldn’t be sweating last week if I were an FNV holder.
Barrick (GOLD): No doubt about last week’s star performer among the big precious metals
producer stocks:
Up 13.2% on the week, up 21% on the fortnight and finally showing a real difference to
breakeven on the year (+9.0%), Barrick returned a 2q24 earnings report that beat analyst
estimates and added financial feelgood factors such as share buybacks into the mix. We knew
its 2q24 production was below estimates as GOLD pre-announces production, so perhaps the
barrier to out-performance wasn’t too high. We also know its AISC was again higher than
forecast at U$1,498/oz, higher than Q1 (U$1,474/oz) and a lot higher than its guidance as
presented at the start of the year at U$1,355/oz. For that you need to see the 2023 YE MD&A,
because last week Barrick managed to move the goalposts without many people noticing.
Here’s what the 2q24 MD&A tells us about costs:
Our 2024 gold cost guidance remains unchanged, including cost of sales of $1,320 to $1,420 per ounce2,
total cash costs of $940 to $1,020 per ounce1 and all-in sustaining costs of $1,320 to $1,420 per ounce1. As
the production increases with each quarter, we expect a corresponding reduction in our per ounce cost
metrics based on the benefit of diluting the fixed costs over more ounces. These ranges were based on a
gold price assumption of $1,900 per ounce and we have previously disclosed a sensitivity of $5 per ounce on
our 2024 gold cost guidance metrics for every $100 per ounce change in
the gold price which is driven by higher royalties. On the basis of this
sensitivity, if the gold price were to average $2,200 per ounce for the 2024
year, the above mentioned cost guidance ranges would increase by $15 per
ounce. We are on track to achieve our 2024 gold cost guidance metrics
taking into account this gold price royalty impact.
16

In other words, at the start of the year GOLD guided for an AISC of U$1,355/oz, but now it
says that if it comes in at U$1,435/oz everything is okay. Cute.
Anyway, the market cared less about a dubious cost matrix and more about the absolute
U$340m in free cash flow generated in the quarter, again not a fabulous number but one that
beat the subdued expectations of the market. That’s the advantage of pre-announcing
mediocre production numbers, I suppose. So with momentum from Monday and gold doing
what it did into Friday’s close, GOLD had a great week and even your skeptical author has to
applaud that, as the mining sector needs crowd-pleasing results from its biggest participants.
Lundin Gold (LUG.to) (LUGDF): This time last weekend I noted how LUG didn’t move up so
very much on the back of a sparkling Q2 earnings report with these words: “It reacted
positively on an influx of new volume, but the market wasn’t falling over itself to buy at these
levels and that’s a bit of a mystery to me.” Then ended the suggestion of LUG being a big of a
sleeper on its results with “This could go a lot higher.”
It went a lot higher:
Up 13.2% on the week and the only stock that managed to keep up with Barrick (GOLD), the
market came for LUG and rightly so. With a forward PE of just 8X when those earnings were
announced, there’s still room for upside as far as I’m concerned.
The TinyCaps List
After 33 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 48.73% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 248.82 29.86 0.12 84.6%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 85.319 46.93 0.55 307.4%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 32.09 0.30 76.5%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 24.02 0.16 -11.1%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 3.99 0.045 -55.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 5.36 0.075 0.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 11.41 0.16 23.1%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 30.26 0.62 -17.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 38.45 0.135 50.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 18.35 0.155 29.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 48.73%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
17

 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average improved by nearly 4% thanks TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
to seven winners (BAY.v, DMX.v, EDG.v, PA.v, STS.v, 90%
80%
VAU.v) versus three losers (ARIC.v, KLDC.v, LMS.v),
70%
with the biggest moves from Endurance Gold (EDG.v 60%
50%
up 33.3%) to the upside and Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v
40%
down 25.0%) to the downside. A reasonable week 30%
20%
for the tinycaps without making many waves or
10%
grabbing headlines, the real action was in the big cap 0%
gold miners.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): On Tuesday 13th PA
confirmed the message we relayed on Sunday 11th in IKN795, that the drill program at
Usicayos had begun and here’s the interesting bit from the company NR (8)
Seven diamond drill holes totalling approximately 3,000 metres are planned to test the SDO East,
SDO South and SDO North zones. Company geologists have identified continuous, high-grade,
gold-bearing shear zones hosted in Paleozoic shales, siltstones and sandstones typical of the
Puno Orogenic Gold Belt.
“Palamina geologists believe that the Sol de Oro zone being drill tested is the heart of the 1.5 by
4.5 km gold bearing orogenic system identified at Usicayos. This is the first time that the main
shear zone at Usicayos is being drill tested following the consolidation of ownership of all the
internal mining concessions and completion of the permitting process.” commented Andrew
Thomson, Palamina´s President.
So now you know. I’m tempted to put this stock on the main Stocks to Follow Watch List as
from now, though will leave it down here for at least a couple more weeks. And while I’ve said
it before there’s no harm in repeating that while obviously a high risk play (you’re betting on
the drill bit of a tinycap gold play, welcome to junior mining), this is one that I think may have a
chance of hitting something interesting. The region has the eyes of plenty of larger mining
companies, PA (and its sister company Winshear (WINS.v) have the dominant concession
areas, PA has only managed to put drills into a less interesting spot of Usicayos until today, this
target zone is one of its most promising. At C$11.4m market cap and with treasury to run well
into 2025 and keep drilling too, if they find something nice with the Truth Machine it’s the right
sort of corporate structure to give a good response at market.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): A brief conversation on social media last week got me re-thinking LMS
as it looks cheap compared to recent action and into what may turn out to be the start of a rally
for both copper and gold, the two metals that matter at this company. For sure high risk and
for sure illiquid at the moment, but the equation has to start somewhere and the long-term
chart (right) indicates that this may be the time for the former.
However. But. Butbutbut (and there’s always a but) the inactivity in LMS stock isn’t mere
coincidence, as we’ve seen precious little from this company in 2024. It’s essentially a project
generator company that can’t find a JV partner for its projects, so until it finds a deal on one of
its Peru properties it’s basically sitting on concessions and having to pay their upkeep, instead
of using OPM to fund the costs as well as any development (or even discovery of real interest).
There’s also the sad case of its Esperanza copper project in Argentina, which has great rocks
but locals vehemently against its development have stopped it from getting new drill permits. It
was returned to LMS in late 2023 (by the awful junior Libero Copper, bad blood attached) and
at the time LMS pledged that “In 2024, Latin Metals will move to secure a new partner to take
Esperanza through drill testing.” It then did a deal with fellow junior Golden Arrow (Joe Grosso
vehicle) on contingent land to expand the footprint of the project in March this year, but that’s
the last we’ve heard and the intransigent locals have stopped any deal from going ahead. If the
18
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

ice were ever broken on this project and LMS could stick a drill in, the resulting assays are
bound to impress a market actively looking for “Copper In Argentina” plays. LMS surely knows
this, so the local community block is the issue.
The stock is now cheap again but, until it announces
some sort of active deal, be it in Peru, at Esperanza or
perhaps on one of its other Argentina projects, it’s not
going to attract the traded volume required to move the
stock meaningfully and make it tradable. It’s one of
those names that’s good to have in the TinyCaps Basket,
because it means I keep an eye on its newsflow and if
anything happens we’ll be on the case quickly. But until
it can announce a deal or a permit, it’s watching brief
only.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): Further to the comments
last week, an ARIC that drifts lower on low volume
doesn’t concern me. What matter here is traded volume
in a notoriously leaky boat for information, so volume is
the key indicator and at the moment, we’re not getting
any sort of signal.
Be clear, I think this one still has a great chance of
becoming a serious exploreco trade but it all depends on
the Truth Machine and its track record of being able to
tip off others means I will wait until there’s solid
information before acting.
Endurance Gold (EDG.v): Note to self: If we see 12c again, it’s buyable.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Mexico: About that open pit mining ban
A deep breath, a sigh, another note on reports about Mexico planning to prohibit open pit
mining. This saga began in February when AMLO got them worried, it ramped up in March, it
went away for a while and now it’s back again, thanks to a committee decision last week and a
market reaction that would have been funny if it hadn’t cost me money on Friday.
19

We’ll start with the first lines from this Reuters report (9) on the subject, chosen carefully
because it’s one of the few that bothered with some bare bones facts of the case, instead of
rushing headlong to conjecture and hyperbolic headlines:
Proposal to ban open-pit mining advances in Mexican Congress
MEXICO CITY, Aug 15 (Reuters) - A committee in Mexico's lower house of Congress approved
two constitutional reforms that would prohibit open-pit mining and fracking, as well as restrict the
use of genetically modified corn.
The proposals, passed on Wednesday, will be taken up for discussion by the full lower house after
lawmakers return to session in September.
It was “interesting” (for want of another word) to see how that news event got a full dose of
the telephone game on Thursday and by the time it was a Talking Point! Friday morning, the
world had already come to the conclusion that
Mexico was under Communist rule. As a result,
mining stocks exposed to Mexico were hit by sellers
and while our unfairly treated Top Pick is a decent
example, perhaps the best was Discovery Silver
(DSV.to). I’ve no plans to buy this stock (again,
managed to get out in 2022 without too much
damage done but that’s another story for another
day) but the way it dumped on Friday morning was
so violent and quick that the thought crossed my
mind to buy a few and flip them back. However, my
thoughts were a little half-hearted and I wasn’t
quick enough to get any of the 30% discount
offered that morning an please be clear, the news
that caused that drop on Friday happened on Wednesday, nothing happened Thursday and that
little fact whispers its own message.
So we got the news, then we got the newsiness, then we got a market reaction as people
already nervous about the political situation in Mexico took the scare stories to heart and
rushed for the door. Fair enough, but we need to know what really happened on Wednesday.
The first clue is in that Reuters note. This wasn’t a vote in the lower house of deputies, this was
a committee handling the law bill in question, specifically “The Commission of Constitutional
Points” (La Comisión de Puntos Constitucionales) which voted to send the bill in question for
debate to the lower house. Next up, the bill as stands is very similar to the one first proposed
by outgoing President AMLO in February this year (and as you may recall, as we covered it in
IKN769 and IKN770). To cut a long story short, the election season took charge but the bills
didn’t go away and now, with AMLO’s term coming to an end, both he and his people are
ending with a flourish and that seems to include a decision to push the debate on open pit
mining forward, that’s what we saw Wednesday. While similar to the February law project, the
committee added a key clause to the bill to be debated in the lower house of deputies and to
get the main points, here’s a translation of the key section of this article (10) from the Mexican
Congress official website (as close to the horse’s mouth as possible):
One of the principle modifications that impact articles 4 and 27 of the Constitution prohibits the
awarding of concessions for the operation, use or to take advantage of water in areas where with
low water availability. In this case, authorizations must assign water resources to population
centres in order to guarantee domestic and personal consumption.
The dictate also prohibits the using of fracking, or hydraulic fracturing in the extraction of
hydrocarbons, aside exception cases determined by the Federal executive. Also, the awarding of
permits for open pit mining is to be prohibited aside exceptional cases considered strategic for
national development.”
Those are the important bits (for us) of the law Project that now goes to the lower house of
deputies for debate, eventual vote and unsurprisingly, the news that Mexico’s parliament is
looking to ban open pit mining got immediate and vociferous pushback from the industry. There
are plenty of examples, let’s go with the main chamber of mining Camimex and its communiqué
20

(11), which provided a point-by-point reasoning on why any such ban would be toxic to the
country. Here’s an extract (translated) from the top of the article:
“Open pit mining has been a debate topid in Mexico, particularly with the recent initiative of the
Constitutional Reform that looks to ban the activity. However, prohibiting open pit mining would
bring devastating consequences for the development and economic stability of the country. On the
other hand, it is imperative to encourage this activity under rules and laws that guarantee the
protection of the environment and of local communities.”
Feel free to read the whole thing on that link (run it through Google Translate, it does business-
type translations fairly well these days) but for those who don’t, Camimex then lists a range of
effects of an eventual ban on open pit mining, such as how open pit mining accounts for 60%
of mining in the country by dollar value, supplies fundamental raw materials for 70 national
industrial sectors and is directly responsible for around 1% of Mexico’s GDP. There’s also the
hard dollar export angle, as metals allow Mexico to run a balance of payments surplus and a
ban on open pit mining would flip that around, with predictable and nefarious consequences for
the Mexican Peso. The points continue, for example Camimex estimating that a ban on open pit
mining would result in one million lost jobs and negatively affect the economies of 690 rural
communities. We could go on, but the point is made.
Switching gears to explain what happens next, I’m now happy that I wrote the note that
appeared last weekend in IKN795, “Dates for Sheinbaum’s presidency”, as it saves a job of
laying out timeline basics. We’re not re-hashing it, so key dates regarding this law bill are
September 1st, when the Lower House of Congress (Deputies) reconvenes after its recess, then
September 30th (AMLO’s last day in office) and October 1st, when Sheinbaum is sworn in as
President. The new lower and upper houses as voted this year begin their task of government
on September 1st and at that point, the contentious law bill in question goes to the lower
chamber for debate and vote. Firstly, please note that a radical bill has been sent for debate by
a committee of very pro-AMLO Morena people. They know that the law bill can pass the lower
house, as the Morena alliance holds 373 of the 500 seats, easily more than it needs to push
through anything it likes, including this type of Constitutional reform that needs a 2/3rd
majority vote (i.e. 334 votes).
However, law bills in Mexico must pass both lower and upper house and the same Morena
alliance only holds 83 of the 128 seats in the upper house (Senate), that’s two seats below the
magic 2/3rd number (called “supermajority” in Mexico) required for changes in the country’s
Constitution. This is important, because it’s the first obvious roadblock to the type of smooth
and quick passage that people are apparently worrying about for open pit mining. The second
is to consider the basics of how the Senate works, as each State (31, plus DF Mexico) gets at
least three seats (normally four, sometimes five) to represent its wishes. What we’re
considering here isn’t a simple change or development of organic law, when the country is
adapting its Constitution things get serious and Senators must consider the well being of their
States as much as the Federal country. It’s difficult to imagine (to say the least) the
representatives from Sonora, Zacatecas or San Luis de Potosí voting in favour of a ban on any
type of mining activity. For example, Sonora derives between 18% and 20% of its State GDP
from mining and Zacatecas around 28%. All that is a long-winded way of saying that no matter
how militant the lower house wants to be (or eventually is), any radical constitutional reform on
this subject will either be blocked outright by the Senate or modified if sent unaltered to the
floor by the lower house. That brings us back to the lower house, as it sits as from September
1st and thanks to this committee decision, seems to have more on its plate than the expected
lame duck month before Sheinbaum takes over. The lower house will know that the Senate will
almost certainly block an outright ban on open pit mining entering the Constitution, as even in
the basic headcount they don’t have the votes and when reality of Senate seat priorities kick in,
the situation gets worse. The lower house may want to make a political point and let AMLO
finish on an environmental flourish by sending the bill to the upper house unaltered. That
wouldn’t be dumb as such, more Lame-Ducky and a waste of time because the rejection once it
reaches the upper house would be near-guaranteed. But if the lower house plays it smarter and
thinks about what their new boss wants, the debate will move the Constitutional reform on
mining matters to something closer to Sheinbaum’s policy decision. And for that, the policy
21

track on mining of the incoming President Sheinbaum, we don’t even have to make wild
guesses. We covered this on several occasions during the election campaign, for example in
IKN777 dated April 7th and the Regional Politics note “Parsing Sheinbaum on mining”, which
cobbled together the clues she dropped and made some reasonable assumptions. That
conjecture turned out to be close to the mark when just two weeks later she published her
manifesto and went to one of the big mining regions of the country to present that part of her
policy plan. We wrote that up in IKN779 dated April 21st and the regional Politics note “Mexico:
Claudia Sheinbaum talks mining”. Here’s how that note ended:
“…a couple of interesting angles show from Sheinbaum’s prepared speech. Firstly, we
know she’s not a full-blown mining expert so the way she talked up how most of
Mexico’s lithium resources are clay hosted means she’s getting advised by experts on
the sector…that’s good. Secondly, her comments on copper will come as a sound for
sore ears as that can only mean she plans to allow open pit mining permits, as there’s
no other way of seeing Mexico improve its copper production base. Finally, her focus on
the Energy Transition metals is a leaf straight out of the Argentina playbook, where the
pro-mining lobby in both the Fernandez and Milei governments have seen public opinion
move away from the anti-mine Greenpeace types and toward the economic expansion
that mining offers because these days, it comes with the greener future narrative.
Overall, what Sheinbaum said last week fits very closely with our call on her likely
mining policy a couple of weeks ago. So to recap and highlight, expect the following:
 No new concessions for open pit mining
 Prior consultancy with locals to become the norm for permitting
 Open pit mines to start seeing permits flow again, as long as locals are onside
 The government will still block controversial projects.
All in all, a lot better than the last couple of years under AMLO.
IKN796 back and as for her official position regarding mining, instead of the conjecture and
suppositions that flew around last week, why not consult her very own manifesto? It’s called
“100 Steps For The Transformation”, it’s been in print for months and while it covers all aspects
of life and government in Mexico and what Ms. Sheinbaum plans to do in the next six years, all
we need to do is focus in on Item 87 (translated):
“No further open pit mining concessions will be awarded. Those (companies) with concessions will
be evaluated as long as they have recognition from the (local) population and do not cause
environmental impact. Produciton of hydrocarbons via fracking will not be permitted.”
Now, while I agree that the law bill to change the country’s Constitution goes further than the
Sheinbaum political position, it’s time once again to underscore what is going to happen in the
next couple of months in Mexico. As from September 1st, a new Congress and Senate sit and
while they have to wait a month for the new boss to be sworn in, be in no doubt who is now
directing policy in Mexico. Sheinbaum is way too smart to annoy the outgoing AMLO, she’ll
remain quiet about this and whatever else until she is President (and then she won’t go around
rubbing people up the wrong way, she’s nobody’s fool and well regarded in Mexico as a
pragmatic political leader). That means we’re not going to get a public fight or dissent, even if
the lower house decides to send a radical reform proposal to the Senate. But it won’t matter,
the timing of all this dictates that Sheinbaum’s policy suite will be the way forward.
Bottom line: You can never say never, certainly not in LatAm politics and that veil of uncertainty
about the “Mexico Mining Ban” is bound to stick around for a while, not least because it
behooves some of the market to believe/promote that argument. Also, the bill that was
approved by committee last week is radical in nature and does indeed call for “no more permits
for any open pit mine” and not just “no more concessions for open pit mining”, be they working
mines, development projects or whatever. I hope we all understand the difference on that,
because the former is the law project and the latter is President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s
position. However we need to be clear, the chances of this law bill surviving the debate process
and becoming law as stands are vanishingly small. That, after a couple of pages of blah-blah on
this seemingly interminable subject that managed to spook the market once again last week, is
all you really need to take away from my long treatise today. For brevity’s sake (haha) I’ve also
left out some of the other wrinkles that may work against the passage of this committee
22

decision as it tries to become a clause in Mexico’s Constitution, such as the way the composition
of the upcoming Congress is being challenged in the courts by the opposition parties due to
Mexico’s “overrepresentation” law (12) (it’s complicated), or most of the conjecture over the
way the two houses would eventually vote (including the way the lobbying system works there
and how it suits a member of parliament to “be allowed to be swayed by the arguments” of one
or the other side). We’ve just gone with “Would Mining State Senators Really Vote Down 10%
Of Their State’s GDP?” which should be enough.
I’ll close with three general observations: First, this whole charade reminds me greatly of the
fun and games we had over the “Chile Mining Ban” back in 2022, if you remember all that. The
process and systems are of course different, with Mexico using established routes to try to
change its Constitution and ban some type of mining while in Chile, it was the composition of
the referendum on the country’s Constitution in play, but in both cases the drama was set in
motion by a militant, left-wing, ecology-focused committee only to face the cruel light of reality
later on, but not before the media had enjoyed its field day and run the scary headlines. On
that score comes the second observation, that despite the committee resolution passing on
Wednesday it wasn’t until Friday, after bizwires had collated stories, got reactions on how awful
it would be if this bill passed unchanged and then gone to press to tell the world about the
impending threat to open-pit mining in Mexico, that the market reacted. Note again the moves
in DSV.to, MAI.v and other pubcos exposed (no pun intended) to Mexico’s open-pit scene, none
of them budged on Thursday, many of them dropped like stones on Friday. If this were a true
threat to livelihoods, you can bet your bottom dollar that those in the know would have
dumped positions wholesale and got out of Dodge as quickly as possible, i.e. on Thursday.
Third and final observation: From the start of 2024, we were clear that the long, drawn-out
electoral process in Mexico didn’t favour mining stocks doing business there. The pre-campaign
was already on in late 2023, the campaign took over all business as from March, the election
then becomes soft transition, then official transition (where we are today) but even then, the
new President doesn’t take over until October. A long period of inertia and one that foments
scaremongering of the sort we saw last week, when you’re nervy about holding a mining stock,
you don’t need much of a push to hit that button and liquidate so however mistaken I believe
sellers last week to have been (and they are, no doubts in my mind) I do at least understand
the reasoning. And that, ladies and gents, is a gilt-edged opportunity for the rest of us.
The bottom-bottom line: When it comes to LatAm there are no zero risks when politics are
involved, but there are sliding scales of risk vs reward and in this case, the market overreacted
bigtime last week about the prospect of an open-pit mining ban in Mexico. Incoming President-
Elect Claudia Sheinbaum has made no secret about her plan not to grant any more open-pit
mining concessions and to tighten up the permitting procedure to guarantee that locals are in
favour of any project. She’s also been clear about respecting the legality and rights of current
concessions and allowing mining to continue, be that open pit or any other type. That’s how
this is likely to play out, with last week’s bill slowed through lower and/or upper house, revised
and altered to fit the Sheinbaum position without decimating an entire economy (State or
national level). That adapted law will give enough to the casual observer telling us about the
COMMIES IN POWER IN MEXICO this weekend to say they told us so, meanwhile those of us
based in the reality of Mexico will be happy not to have sold when they were screaming their
lungs out. Or even better, buying when others were selling.
Argentina: Chubut does RIGI sans mining
A brief addendum to the ongoing coverage of President Javier Milei’s moves to drag the
Argentine economy kicking and screaming into orthodoxy. As we recorded in many earlier
editions, the Ley de Bases reform package went through the national Congress and is now law,
with one of the items being the RIGI investment law that promotes FDI into the country for
projects of U$200m or above. Aimed at infrastructure, oil&gas, mining, agro and so forth, the
RIGI laws also need to be approved by provincial governments in order to be enacted and
parliaments of the provinces have already started that process, as seen in our coverage of Rio
Negro two weekends ago. This week came the turn of Chubut and while its governor, Ignacio
23

Torres, was one of the adherents to the “Pacto de Mayo” (May Pact) agreement signed in July
(just to confuse things, see IKN791 for more) his province is famously anti-mining and location
of the protests that stopped the Navidad project (PAAS) from moving forward. Therefore when
it came to ratifying RIGI in Chubut, the provincial government has gone its own way (13):
This Thursday, the Chubut Legislature approved the accession to the RIGI large-scale investment
incentive regime, but maintained the veto on mining.
It therefore became the fourth province to comply with the regulations, just as Río Negro, Jujuy and
Mendoza have already done. After a debate lasting almost 5 hours, the Chubut parliament gave
the green light to Governor Ignacio Torres' project in line with that approved by the National
Congress as part of the Bases Law.
However, while provinces where it has already been approved, such as Jujuy and Mendoza etc
and where projects are advancing (e.g. Salta, Catamarca) aimed to attract large mining
investments, in Chubut (mining) activity and the use of cyanide will continue to be prohibited, an
aspect that even had the support of libertarians to exclude from the text.
Notable that even the allies of Milei in Chubut, the Libertarian bloc of its parliament, weren’t
going to run against the province’s strong anti-mining sentiment. Thus works Argentina.
Market Watching
Deferred
Be long gold, get long the other metals, don’t sweat Jackson Hole, enjoy what’s left of the
summer.
Conclusion
IKN796 is done, we end with bullet points:
 The overreaction to the “news” out of Mexico about the impending death of its mining
industry has offered up another window of opportunity. It’s unlikely to be a quick trade,
as political risk nerves tend to hang around and it’s easy to find naysayers exhorting
you to sell it all before it’s too late, as well. But seriously, there are bigger things to
worry about than this one and panic sellers will do so at the lowest prices.
 Good to see copper making its comeback. It’s all about China and the data is starting to
turn up, that’s what matters here
 Palamina (PA.v) is my idea of a high risk pennycrapper with big potential. It’s a drill
play, you need to go in with eyes wide open, but the set-up is right.
 Also have to love Rio2 from here. The end of September should see a company out of
its quiet period and doing its building thing. About time, too.
 Should I own Wesdome? Probably, yes.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
24

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.osiskomining.com/gold-fields-to-acquire-osisko-mining-for-c2-16-billion/
(2) https://www.miningweekly.com/article/gold-fields-buys-canadas-osisko-for-c216bn-2024-08-12
(3) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-set-for-first-weekly-gain-in-six-on-chile-mine-strike/
(4) https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1824379124447842469
(5) https://www.franco-nevada.com/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/Franco-Nevada-Reports-Q2-2024-Results-Final-
version-2024-08-13.pdf
(6) https://news.futunn.com/en/post/46469689/franco-nevada-q2-2024-adj-eps-0-75-misses-
0?level=1&data_ticket=1716064530519919
(7) https://www.franco-nevada.com/files/doc_news/2024/Aug/Franco-Nevada-Announces-the-Acquisition-of-a-1-8-
percent-NSR-on-Newmont-s-Yanacocha-Operations-08-13-2024-vff.pdf
(8) https://www.palamina.com/news/2024/8/13/palamina-drill-program-underway-at-its-usicayos-gold-project
(9) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/proposal-ban-open-pit-mining-advances-mexican-congress-2024-08-
15/
(10) https://www.canaldelcongreso.gob.mx/noticia/comision-de-puntos-constitucionales-avala-iniciativa-en-materia-
medio-ambiental-y-alimentaria
(11) https://mineriaenlinea.com/2024/08/la-mineria-a-cielo-abierto-un-pilar-para-el-desarrollo-de-mexico-que-debe-
fomentarse-no-prohibirse/
(12) https://elpais.com/mexico/2024-08-09/sobrerrepresentacion-la-ultima-y-dificil-batalla-de-la-oposicion-para-frenar-la-
mayoria-de-morena.html
(13) https://www.elpatagonico.com/chubut-se-adhirio-al-rigi-pero-veto-la-mineria-n6049361
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
25

Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
26

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
28