6 The IKN Weekly, issue 793 — Jul 29, 2024
The IKN Weekly
Week 793, July 28th 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Four quick ones from The USA, The metals last
week.
Fundamental Analysis: Three trades planned (FCGV.v)(WRN.to)(ARG.to).
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Contango ORE (CTGO): Bear Creek Mining
(BCM.v), Florida Canyon Gold Inc (FCGV.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Western Copper &
Gold (WRN.to) (WRN).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Solaris Resources (SLS.to).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Barrick (GOLD).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v), Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Regional Politics: Venezuela: The Presidential election, Mexico: A body from Pasta de
Conchos, Panama: Drawing the Cobre Panamá roadmap, Peru: Illegal mining’s increasing
influence.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Adjustments to the portfolio incoming, as we do three things:
I am selling my shares in Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN)
I am adding to my new position in Florida Canyon Gold (FCGV.v)
And not for the first time, I am opening a position in Amerigo Resources (ARG.to)
Details and rationale in today’s main fundies section.
In Today’s Edition
The main event today is a simple one: Trying to convince you to do the same as me
and buy some Florida Canyon Gold (FCGV.v) stock before the company is sold to the
highest bidder.
We also announce a couple of changes to the portfolio, as Western (WRN.to) is sold
and Amerigo (ARG.to), just in time for what’s set up to be a blowout 2q24 report.
Newmont (NEM) did its reporting last week and while the market claimed its results as
a beat, this desk was less impressed. See Producer Basket for the reasons and the
likely negative effects that will knock on to Barrick (GOLD).
Copper seems to have finally found a bottom. Also in The Copper Basket, we try to
explain the latest mess at Solaris and the politics behind the news.
Four quick ones from The USA
Trying hard to keep today’s edition succinct, what with the election happening locally today and
the potential to get “coincidental” power and/or internet cuts this weekend. I’m also looking to
keep focus on the main event, much the same as last weekend’s main event. So once again no
1
long intro today, but there are a few macro items to consider from The USA with two backward
looking a two forward looking:
First we need to address the new political backdrop and President Biden’s decision to stand
aside, plus the way he and nearly all the Dem glitterati has fallen in line behind Veep Kamala
Harris as its party’s candidate for November. We’re not going into all the details, we will
however reassert this desk’s baseline assumption that Donald Trump wins in November and
becomes POTUS 47, even while noting that according to the polls the race is now tight and
“Kamala has momentum”. Fair enough, we offer the
current odds offered at Polymarket (1) (inset right) and for
what it’s worth, I don’t even think it’s that close. Finally
and very importantly on this subject, my call of a Trump
win has absolutely nothing to do with personal
preferences (as anyone how knows me will quickly tell
you). I’m trying to keep this as non-partisan as possible
and as such, Trump is for my money still the obvious
frontrunner. This also means I won’t have any problem in
altering the call as we crash and stumble through the
crazy that’s guaranteed to happen between now and November (and maybe beyond), this is
about pricing potential market moves, not about ideology.
Second, we look back at the data offered on US inflation on Friday, which saw “The Fed’s
preferred” PCE dataset come in at 2.6%, with core at 2.5%. That was bang on forecast and
according to prevailing theory, the gentle slowing of inflation plus the way the unemployment
rate has been creeping up (more below) adds credence for rate cuts in the near-term.
On that subject, we move to the two main events in the coming week and nothing to do with
The Olympics or political rallies:
The FOMC July meeting is item #3, with results Wednesday 2pm ET and the Jay Powell presser
half an hour later. There’s an outside chance of the long-awaited rate cut, but as things stand
this weekend we should fully expect the Fed to stand pat on rates. That means once again that
all eyes are on the communiqué comments and this time, the Fed has given enough hints that
we should price in the start of rate cuts as from September. The market will look for
confirmation on that in the press release and from Jay Powell’s mouth, though the annual
events calendar also adds the Fed Chair’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole. That comes at the
end of August and a couple of weeks before the next FOMC, so Jay “Data Driven” Powell will
have a politically correct opportunity to procrastinate next week and potentially drop the big
hint about rate cuts in a month’s time.
Fourth and finally, Friday pre-open brings the US BLS Employment Report for July and
according to Bill Mc Bride this weekend (2), “...consensus is for 175,000 jobs added, and for the
unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.” We’ll be looking for even one tenth of
difference to that headline number as a potential tipping point for market assumptions and
precipitation of the cutting cycle, plus the potential for the (now regular) negative adjustments
to previous non-farm payroll jobs estimates from previous months.
The metals last week
We’re going to need a couple of lines about last
week’s action in the metals world before getting to
the real message of IKN793, if only to head off a
few worried mails. Here’s the DJIA over the last
ten days compared to gold (GLD gold line), the PM
miners (GDX proxy) and silver (SLV blue line). As
you can see (right), the pattern and drops are in
order of size and it’s fair to say silver took one on
the chin last week:
2
So far so cruddy, now for the very same squiggly lines for 2024 year-to-date:
I’m not here trying to sugarcoat the losses incurred in the PM space, particularly those in silver
(as I’m now exposed to the Jekyll & hyde metal via three trades), I am saying there’s a
regularity in the ebbs and flows of all four of those lines in 2024, last week apart. That’s
suggestive of an entire market moving both upward from asset revaluation and with a greater
driver, i.e. the moves in the unit of counting. Indeed, what happens to the US Dollar affects all
these equally in timing, though not necessarily in equal measure.
The dive in silver was sharp and unpleasant last week, but I’m afraid it comes with the territory
as adding leverage to the portfolio via silver exposure is not a riskless proposition
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Three trades planned
Today’s edition is about being on-point and focused on making money, therefore we lay out the
plan in three easy steps:
I plan to add shares of Florida Canyon Gold (FCGV.v) and if there’s only one
thing you take away from today’s edition, let it be this.
I’m a seller of Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN) this week. Partly for
practical reasons as funds from this sale will go toward the FCGV addition,
but also because its risk/reward balance has moved away from us and with
the Canadian Yukon zone now coming under community level scrutiny, I
prefer other places for copper exposure.
I’m a buyer of Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). It won’t be many shares, but my
bullish outlook on copper remains intact and the sale of WRN means that I’d
be light copper without doing something else. With ARG on the Watch List
and at a good entry price, this one is a bit of a no-brainer.
Notes on all three trades, starting with the main one:
Florida Canyon Gold Inc (FCGV.v): Buying more
It doesn’t need much of a re-cap, but last week’s edition was all about FCGV and the reason
this is a new and somewhat urgent trade. As things turned out, the stock traded last week at a
reasonably constant level between 62c and 66c and I bought twice at 63c.
3
But now I want more. As the week wore on, the more I considered this trade the more it had
the “No Brainer” feel about it and they don’t come along very often. Our intel on its sales
process is both well sourced and confirmed by third parties, then as laid out last weekend
there’s more than enough true instrinsic value in the Florida Canyon asset to expect the stock
to attract a buyout number of at least C$1.00. We’re roughly pitching for C$1.10 but even that
may be lowball.
There are two things about “no brainer” trades: Firstly, they really don’t come along very often
and secondly, when they do they have you looking at the entire range of your portfolio and
wondering “Why do I have cash invested there, there and there when I could have it all here?”.
It’s a tell-tale sign, as are thought along the lines of “This one is too easy” and even felling a
little sheepish about the fish-in-barrel set-up you’ve come across. These trades aren’t common
but when they happen, I’ve learned to pay attention to my own reactions.
What’s more, we also had more concrete evidence that this trade is both happening and likely
to crystallize sooner, rather than later. In this webinar dated July 25th (3), the CEO of Heliostar
Metals (HSTR.v) Charles Funk presented to his shareholders and the general public regarding
his company’s acquisition of the Mexican properties owned by FCGV (and mentioned in last
weekend’s edition). Our focus is not his company or the frankly doggish assets he’s just bought,
but along the way in the presentation and Q&A last week he revealed some specifics about the
upcoming sale of the Floridas Canyon mine. First up in his prepared comments, he said this
(your author transcribes):
“…Argonaut had taken a decision to sell all of their assets. It’s now a public, err, on record
through public disclosure of Florida Canyon Inc that the sales processes for both their remaining
Nevada asset and this sale of Mexico. And for the Nevada transaction to happen, the Mexico
assets had to be sold first.”
Then later around minute 43:10, HSTR CEO Funk underscores this information with this direct
quote, when addressing a viewer question on exactly why HSTR had been given the
opportunity to buy the AR Mexico assets. He said:
“I tried to address that at the start. Argonaut made corporate decision that they’re selling all of
their assets. My understanding, which is strictly around rumour and relationships around the
business is that there’s only buyers or potential buyers for the Nevada asset based in the US.
There wasn’t a buyer who wanted to buy both, so they became separate sales processes and
they’re unique assets in the sense that they are too big for a small group but they weren’t, you
know, fifty or a hundred thousand ounce a year producers for a big company. So I don’t believe
that there was a lot of competition for us to acquire those assets. But I do know that we got them
at this price point because it was a pre-determined decision to get the best available price and
commit to a sale.”
That latter comment is, of course, HSTR CEO Funk’s opinion of the Mexico assets. This desk’s
opinion is that HSTR has paid good money for liabilities rather than assets, and if HSTR was
untouchable previously it’s doubly so today. However HSTR is not our focus of interest, instead
it’s Funk’s insight into the same information we relayed last weekend in IKN792 about the sale
of Florida Canyon, which Funk called “The Nevada Asset” during his webinar. This desk believes
4
CEO Funk spoke out of turn last week. In fact, the only “public disclosure” made by FCGV.v to
date came on July 16th in this brief NR (4). Here’s what it said
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - July 16, 2024) - Florida Canyon Gold Inc. (TSXV: FCGV)
("FCGI", or the "Corporation") advises the market that processes are underway to review strategic
alternatives to maximize shareholder value on the Mexican business unit and the Florida Canyon
mine, both of which are well advanced.
You will note that FCGV only states that it was reviewing “strategic alternatives” for its assets,
there’s no specific mention of a sales process. Admittedly, that NR is entitled “Florida Canyon
Gold Provides Update on Sales Processes”, but when the very next day on July 17th it
announced that “…it has entered into a binding agreement to sell its interests in the San
Agustin mine, El Castillo mine, La Colorada mine, Cerro del Gallo project and San Antonio
project (collectively the "Mexican Business Unit") to Heliostar Metals Ltd…”, that multiple deal
five assets was enough to cover the plural used in the title line of the NR the day before.
Indeed, the use (or un-use) of the plural is important in the standard corporate description
blurb at the foot of its NRs. We quote:
About Florida Canyon Gold Inc.
The Corporation is a Canadian-based junior gold producer with assets in the United States and
Mexico. The principal operating assets of FCGI are the Florida Canyon mine in Nevada and San
Agustin mine in Mexico. The Corporation also holds the El Castillo mine, La Colorada mine, Cerro
del Gallo project and San Antonio project (which is subject to an option agreement with Heliostar),
all located in Mexico. The Corporation is exploring all options to leverage the value of its portfolio of
assets.
Note again that it separates a) The Florida Canyon Mine in Nevada b) the San Augustin mine in
Mexico and c) the “other Mexico” assets. The deal with HSTR covered two of those three. It is,
therefore, the contention of this desk that CEO Funk has let the cat out the bag and has
provided public confirmation of the deal we picked up on the week before last, the one that got
me to buy last week. What’s more, HSTR CEO Funk provides a logical sequence of events by
stating that FCGV couldn’t sell its remaining jewel in the crown until it had dumped the Mexico
trash (into HSTR, more fool its shareholders, but that’s not our story) and provided information
and details that most definitely were not in that brief and deliberately vague FCGV NR of July
16th. For what it’s worth, if I were running FCGV or its sales process, I wouldn’t be at all happy
with Mr. Funk and his loose lips if I watched that webinar.
Therefore and as the cat is somewhat out of the bag, I feel more at liberty to add a couple of
extra items to the intel, things I learned last week while doing the DD and checking up on the
original tip-off. There are another couple of snippets of intel I’m keeping back, but only because
they may compromise one or other of my sources (and we don’t want that). Therefore:
The sales process is being run by Cormark. That’s for what it’s worth, I also know that
unlike the deal to sell the Mexican assets to HSTR, there are multiple interested parties
under CA.
One of the competing companies is Calibre Mining (CXB.to). That makes logical sense,
considering size and location as well as the CXB skill set and desire to grow. I don’t know
whether CXB will win out, I do know they are in the process.
It’s going to close sooner, rather than later. I fielded a couple of mail/whatsapp inquiries
on timing for any deal announcement in the week and said basically the same thing. I
cannot give an exact date because I’m not privy to details (and will not contact sources
again), but all indications are that we’re talking days, perhaps weeks, but definitely not
months before this deal is done.
As such, I’m happy to have got on at a reasonable 63c price but if I want more (and I do,
felling greedy on this trade) I need to act asap. Therefore expect me to buy for a third time in
the days to come, time will tell whether it affects my cost average.
Bottom line: The only thing that I’m worried about with this trade is that it seems too easy,
which reminds me of the trusted market adage “if it’s too good to be true, it is”. Aside that, I
expect this to make a decent trade difference in the near term and as such, will buy more
tomorrow Monday.
5
Selling Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN)
It’s with something of a heavy heart, but on due consideration throwing in the towel here and
re-deploying the cash makes too much sense. Reasons:
1) Canada Yukon political risk has taken a sharp uptick due to the heap leach incident at
Victoria Gold (VCGX.to). As noted when the issue arose at the end of last month, my first
impression was that WRN would avoid collateral damage due to the differences its Casino
project had with Eagle. However, with the news last week from (relative) neighbour Cantex
(CD.v) has changed the dynamic (5)
Kelowna, Canada – July 23, 2024 – Cantex Mine Development Corp. (CD: TSXV; CTXDF:
OTCQB) (the “Company”) announces a temporary shutdown of exploration activity at its North
Rackla project which is located within the traditional territory of the First Nation of Na-Cho Nyäk
Dun (“FNNND”).
North Rackla Drilling Halt
As a result of the recent heap leach pad failure at Victoria Gold’s Eagle Mine, located 120km
from Cantex’s project, the FNNND has requested a temporary pause to all mining and
exploration occurring within their
Traditional Territory.
The Department of Lands and Resources of the FNNND have requested this temporary pause
to allow them to prioritize resources to deal with the ongoing impacts of the leach pad collapse
which has been further complicated by several forest fires burning in the vicinity of the
community.
Cantex has agreed to the request from the FNNND and has paused all drilling and exploration
activities. Our thoughts are with those affected by the spill and the forest fires, and we give
thanks to the first responders and emergency support services who are working to contain both
situations. Management looks forward to the continuation of the drill program in the near future
and the results of the drilling completed to date.
About Cantex
That Cantex NR frames the drilling suspension as temporary and points to the current spate of
regional wildfires as a contributory cause, but this is clearly related to the new round of First
Nation antipathy toward mining projects in the region. With this backdrop, we’re also unlikely to
see and resolution on the sales process of Coffee out of NEM, one of our theoretical chess
pieces in this trade’s M&A potential.
2) The new management team seems to be keener on the long game than I expected. When
Sendeep Singh was handed the reins, the signal was that we’d see this company find its buyer.
However, since then Singh has filled the board with friends in the industry and run a
(superfluous looking) financing, both indicators that WRN isn’t in a hurry for the deal.
3) I want the money for other purchases. Mostly FCGV (above), but some of the funds will also
go toward our next trade idea below.
These three issues together made it an easy-ish decision to cut WRN. Expect the sale to happen
before IKN794 next weekend and with a little luck, I’ll be able to get out a price close to my
original entry, thereby causing little real damage.
Buying Amerigo Resources (ARG.to)
The final trade announcement today is the return to one of my favourite copper stocks and one
of the best run juniors in the business, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). This one is fairly
straightforward:
I want to maintain exposure to copper. Just because WRN hasn’t turned out the way I
planned doesn’t mean I’m turning my back on copper as a source of good trades this year.
Selling WRN makes me light on copper exposure and with ARG waiting in the wings in the
Watch List, it’s an obvious go-to.
It’s at a good price. After it ran to C$1.70 and above recently I thought my window of
opportunity may have closed, but since then copper has retreated and dragged ARG down
with it. At C$1.55, it’s a fine entry price no matter what copper does next week.
Timing is good. We expect ARG to deliver a very strong financial quarter when it reports
this week, July 31st, so this is a stock I’m happy about holding through earnings and expect
it to bump up on the news.
6
Put those three together and this one is a straightforward decision. I’ll be on before ARG
reports its earnings on Wednesday and as from next weekend, the ARG line item will be in the
main recommended section of the Stocks to Follow list, rather than the Watch List. It’s going to
start small, the veritable foot-in-the-door, but that’s simply because I want to dedicate as much
capital as possible to the Florida Canyon Gold (FCGV.v) position. This will build as long as
copper does what I fully expect it to do in the second half of 2024.
Stocks to Follow
Considering the metals complex continued selling down and both GDX and GDXJ were down,
the headcount of seven winners (MARI.to, BCM.v, WRN.to, CTGO, ALDE.v, RPX.v, FCGV.v),
three unchanged stocks (SILV, OCI.v, MIRL.cse) and eight losers (MAI.v, RIO.v, PGZ.v, NCAU.v,
IPT.v, ARG.to, PAU.cse, MENE.v) wasn’t that bad. There was only one double figure percentage
loser too, with Mene Inc (MENE.v down 13.0%) finding a small seller Friday afternoon to drag it
to a new low. The new kid on the block Florida Canyon (FCGV.v up 14.5%) was the biggest
winner by a distance, most others were small moves in either direction and inside recent
trading ranges. Overall, another annoying and negative week that could have been a lot worse.
With the addition of FCGV.v to the list, we’re up to 18 open positions on our Stocks to Follow
list, two fewer our self-imposed maximum. Just six are left in the green and two others are
UNCH, that means ten in the red and while many of those are only just underwater, it’s still not
very good.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.285 35.7% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.53 -33.8% Momentum now building
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$9.14 32.5% Quality Ag/Au, U$12.96 tgt
Florida Can. Gold FCGV.v STR BUY C$0.63 21-Jul-24 C$0.63 0.0% New trade, will be bot soon
Pan Global Res PGZ.v SPEC BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.15 -21.1% 3 adds,big position,cheap Cu
Marimaca Copper MARI.to STR BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$3.99 30.9% Quality Cu developer
Bear Creek Min BCM.v SPEC BUY C$0.35 10-Jun-24 C$0.325 -7.1% Spec Ag(& Au) trade, 2 buys
Western Copper WRN.to SELLING C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.56 -0.6% Sale on regional risk
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.055 -8.3% Exposed to several good jrs
Contango Ore CTGO STR BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$23.05 23.3% Production re-rate in Q3
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.325 58.5% Cheap Au in West Africa
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.96 33.3% into FY24 news season now
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.235 -21.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Amerigo Res ARG.to BUYING C$1.57 12-Dec-21 C$1.55 -1.3% return, (re)starter position
Red Pine Expl RPX.v WATCH C$0.08 4-May-24 C$0.08 0.0% Special situation, poss trade
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.08 -5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.10 -79.2% LT bet, adding slowly
7
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on just a few of our covered companies this week:
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): SELLING. As noted above, this one gets cut as
from next weekend. Somewhat sad to see this one go, but needs must and the cash will come
in useful.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): BUYING. As noted above, ARG will move from the Watch
List to the main lsit as from next weekend. The starter position won’t be big.
Florida Canyon Gold Inc (FCGV.v): POSITION OPENED. I bought twice, once on Monday
and once Tuesday, with nearly all those shares bought at 63c. As noted above I plan to add
more this coming week, most likely tomorrow Monday.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): ADDED: As threatened/promised, I added to my position in
BCM last week and notably, despite the poor showing from silver, the stock managed to
rebound from its lows of last weekend and traded fairly consistently in the 31c to 33c range,
never troubling the 30c line again. That’sa good thing, as it adds evidentiary weight to this
desk’s contention that BCM is mightily oversold and its true financial situation is not as dire as a
simple glance at its balance sheet might suggest.
In other news, during her “State of the Union” type address to Congeress today, part of the
traditional program of events every July 28th in Peru (its independence day), President Dina
Boluarte of Peru made the anticipated mention of five mining projects that her government was
looking to green light this year, namely the Quellaveco Expansion, the Raura Re-start, Phase 1
of the Chalcobamba project (part of the MMG Las Bambas complex), the Romina mine and, yes
indeed, the Corani silver mine project owned by Bear Creek. That means the project permit
renewal will go without a hitch, let’s now see if the company can either attract the necessary
capital (unlikely) or find a buyer (and that’s why we’re long this stock).
Contango ORE (CTGO): The constructive chart
continues at CTGO, with 50k volume days now
typical (that’s over U$1m per day, not your
average junior) and days such as Monday when
160k shares changed hands in the mix, too.
The poster child for how fundamentals still matter,
even in our wild and whacky world of junior
miners. One month ago this was trading at U$17
and the world hated it due to that dilutive
placement, here we are +35% later and on a
march toward a price at which I’d take profits.
Another $2 to go, perhaps $3.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): After last week’s edition I was pinged and asked about what I
thought of the contents of the MAI NR dated Thursday, July 18th (now ten days ago) and that’s
fair enough, I should have addressed it last week, Top Pick and all that. So…
8
The July 18th NR (7) held no surprises and fits closely with the information we presented in our
last significant update on the company, IKN785’s “The State of the Top Pick: Minera Alamos
(MAI.v)”. Back then it was a 39c stock, this weekend we’re back under 30c and that’s a royal
pain in the backside for those fully allocated (e.g. me) but offers true opportunity for the rest of
you. The NR of ten days ago laid out the modest improvements at Santana for Q2, all with a
view to material improvements in production in Q3, Q4 and then into 2025. All good, but what
matters are permits, as we noted in IKN785. Here’s an excerpt:
“…while moderate improvement at Santana ops is welcome as 2024 becomes 2025, the
true upside explosion happens as soon as the permits begin to flow. First among equals
will be approval for Cerro de Oro and as the incoming Sheinbaum government has pledged
to honour all concessions, open pit or not, talk of cancellations doing the rounds as a
“Socialist heir to AMLO’s throne” is pigeonholed by the western press is frankly silly. As laid
out in IKN777 and IKN779, Sheinbaum has to play her cards carefully in the transition
period and will surely be 100% respectful toward AMLO until his last day in office, but once
she takes over the presidency she will have her own mandate and made it clear during the
campaign mining is part of Mexico’s future.”
We have two months (and a bit) before Claudia Sheinbaum takes office and replaces AMLO as
President. So far the transition has been smooth (a case of no news = good news on the
whole) but that doesn’t change the fact that President-Elect Sheinbaum will keep her head
down and nose clean until AMLO’s days have done out of simple respect to her mentor. This
quiet period shouldn’t be a surprise to MAI holders or anyone else, but clearly investor fatigue is
back at the company and people are fed up of waiting. I can’t blame anyone on that score,
quite frankly, but central to my decision to retain MAI as a house Top Pick and maintain
position was knowing that I’d have to apply copious amounts of patience once again in 2024.
The issues and risks haven’t changed, with the “when” on permitting foremost, but that’s why
it’s a 30c stock and testing the fortitude of holders. With MAI priced where it is, the bargain is a
straightforward one and the main risk, that of continued inertia, is understood,
The Copper Basket
After thirty weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 2.91% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1640.31 8.78 22.6%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 548.61 3.39 -17.9%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 371.51 3.99 16.3%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 265.77 9.00 -23.7%
5 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 163.78 0.80 27.0%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 163.03 0.96 7.9%
7 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 160.48 1.47 -16.0%
8 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 152.46 0.66 -52.2%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 81.73 0.345 -8.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 70.05 0.60 130.8%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 27.81 0.435 -25.0%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 27.09 0.255 41.7%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 20.84 0.120 0.0%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 15.16 0.245 -59.8%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 12.40 0.06 -14.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 2.91%
The basket average jagged down by nearly 5% on the week and though still in positive territory
for 2024, it’s not by much and we’re at the lowest level since the sector-wide rally began in
mid-March. It wasn’t one-way traffic either, as the five week-over-week winners (NGEX.to.
MARI.to, ASCU.to, ALDE.v, FDY.to) and four unchanged stocks (BIG.v, CCCM.v, QCCU.v,
9
COR.v) can testify, but the winners tended to be small moves and the six losers (SLS.to, LA.v,
OCO.v, KDK.v, AE.v, ECU.v) weighed heaviest, thanks to the big drops taken by Element 29
(ECU.v down 19.1%), Los Andes Copper (LA.v down 11.8%) and American Eagle (AE.v down
11.8%), among others.
The ten-day chart shows the ongoing reason for the stock price weakness, with copper losing
the U$4.20/lb level quickly last week before finally finding buyers in the $4.05 to $4.10 range.
From then on it flatlined, offering (once again) the hope (ugh, that word) it has finally found a
bottom.
If we zoom out and take in a longer timeline (right), there’s reason to consider the current level
as a decent floor, as well as being oversold in the near-term. It’s no fun to be as fundamentally
bullish as I am about the metal and have to report
week upon week of bearish trading, but I cannot
ignore my inner value invest, it’s how I’m built as
a numbercruncher so whatever might happen in
the near-term the prospects for copper look as
bright as they did at the start of 2024…or even
last month and 15% higher than today.
As usual, the trade papers searched for reasons to
explain the price weakness and came up with
ChinaFear!, this time (7) "...investors were
disappointed after a key leadership gathering
pointed towards policy continuity rather than any
structural shifts." that's a lot of funky words to say "the market speculated on a China stimulus
package that didn't appear", one of the standard plays in the metals world. However, later into
the week we did see a move by China central planning to boost the (excuse the use of cliché)
flagging economy, just not in the way expected. I’m no expert on the China domestic economy
so I’m going to limit myself to presented the information and stepping back. This Reuters note
does the honours (8):
BEIJING, July 26 (Reuters) - China's use of ultra-long treasury bonds to fund a consumer goods trade-in
programme deviates from the usual playbook of boosting investment to support the economy and is fuelling
expectations for more stimulus that targets household demand.
The state planning agency said on Thursday that about 150 billion yuan ($20.7 billion) of the 1 trillion yuan
China is raising through special debt issuance this year will subsidise replacements of old appliances, cars,
bicycles and other goods.
Equivalent to 0.12% of economic output and 0.3% of 2023's retail sales, this amount is too tiny to lead to a
meaningful rebalancing of the economy towards consumption or guarantee reaching this year's roughly 5%
growth target.
It does, however, show that concerns that consumer sentiment lingers near record lows are prompting
authorities to finally test measures long called for by economists that are not from the usual supply-side
toolkit.
Special bonds traditionally fund "strategic" infrastructure and security-related investments.
"They are changing the way they use such funds in line with the shifts in the economy," Hwabao Trust
economist Nie Wen said.
"This is an important change. The most striking problem facing the economy is weak demand, so expanding
domestic demand will become a more significant policy option."
10
More stimulus measures could be announced at a politburo meeting this month or later in the year if growth
fails to pick up, economists said.
After unshackling the economy from three years of COVID-19 restrictions, Chinese officials had hoped that
stimulating the industrial sector would stabilise the job market and lead to higher wages and consumption.
What happened instead was that greater industrial capacity led to price wars and a cost-cutting race that kept
wages depressed, fuelling job uncertainty and adding to the pain among consumers caused by the property
sector downturn.
On consideration, the phrase “…too tiny to lead to a meaningful rebalancing of the economy” is
probably the main takeaway. This isn’t the type of big macro move that immediately raises
demand forecasts, instead China is all Keynesian now with its end users, keeping the populace
happy. And with that, we arrive at the end of another week for The Copper Basket and move to
our weekly look at world copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
Somehow, the three official world inventory systems attached to the futures markets of
LME, SHFE and Comex managed to conspite together for a net copper add of exactly 5
metric tonnes (mt) last week. No thousands, no hundreds and no tens, that’s five
tonnes of copper which means the run of increases continues. We have a total of
550,964mt in stock this weekend.
Also more of the same at the SHFE, with another small draw down when there should
be a big draw down, according to the calendar at least. The drop was 7,979mt and this
weekend’s total inventory stands at 301,203mt, still over that psychologically important
300kmt line. The chart below continues to track how weird 2024 is for this data set.
At the LME, we saw an add of 6,325mt on the week to get to 237,750mt and once
again, the difference is Asia as we can add the 7,250mt that landed in LME Taiwan to
the 96kmt reported as per last weekend. That’s the whole of the May 2024 100kmt now
accounted for, let a new chapter begin.
Another add at the Comex, with another 1,659mt to pull it further away from the
historic low of just three weeks ago. Since the bottom of 8,206mt seen in IKN789,
we’ve seen 3,805mt added to get to this weekend’s 12,011mt and the new trend is
born.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows the difference between 2024 and all other years continues.
We’ve had a couple of years in which July end saw around 150kmt in stock in the SHFE, other
recent years have been around the 100kmt level. This year, we’re still over 300kmt and sjowing
a massive gap, we’ve also seen none of the typical weeks in recent years that show a sudden
and sharp decline in stocks as copper is sent from warehouses to end users.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Notes on just one of our basket stocks this week, another tome on the travails at Solaris:
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): How far down the rabbit hole do you want to go? Last week saw
another uptick in community friction around the Warintza projects and though I tend to spend
far too much time on a stock that’s so toxic it’s impossible to own, here we go again trying to
explain to an outside audience the trickery going on, as well as the duplicity and two-faced
position taken by SLS. First a memory jog (we last did this story in IKN789, four weekends ago)
and if you remember from previous episodes, there are three groups to consider in local
community relations at Warintza. First the village of Warints, located next to the project, in
favour of the mine. Second, the elected authority of this semi-automous zone, the PSHA, of
which Warints is one part. PSHA is vehemently opposed to the project and importantly (this
remains a key point) is the authority that must grant any eventual mine its social licence at
Warintza; with its approval, the mine cannot go ahead. Third, the “Interprovincial Federation of
Shuar Centres” ( Federación Interprovincial de Centros Shuar), normally known as “FICSH”.
That group covers a wider range still and includes PSHA, it’s a type of regional authority but
with less direct influence on the Warintza project. Now for the latest, bullet points are easiest:
There’s an internal struggle for the presidency of FICSH. On the one hand, we have David
Tankamash, the person who went to PDAC this year and signed a co-operation agreement
with Solaris (SLS.to) and Ecuador President Daniel Noboa, who was present at the
conference as well.
On the other, we have Domingo Ankuash, who was elected its leader in March when
Tankamash returned from the PDAC trip. The majority of members of FICSH were up in
arms about Tankamash’s decision to side with SLS and the project and voted him out as its
president in an emergency meeting, replacing him with Ankuash (who is very anti-mining
and what the majority want from their leadership).
However, Domingo Ankuash refused to go, says he was fired illegally and continues to
claim he is the president of FICSH. We’ll return to this point in a moment, because therein
lies the rub.
Up to last Tuesday, 23rd July, the people and supporters of Domingo Ankuash had control
of the FICSH HQ, located in the town of Sucúa (pop 8,000). On that day, a contingency of
200 police officers arrive and evicted the Ankuash people, in order to install David
Tankamash and his people back in the building. This got headline news in Ecuador and the
government claiming it had restored the rightful president of FICSH. The eviction was calm
and orderly with no violence or confrontations.
Then on Friday 26th, the Domingo Ankuash people re-took control of the building and
evicted the David Tankamash people, stating categorically that Tankamash had been voted
down, he was not the president of FICSH and did not represent the vast majority of people
in the organization. The issue, once again, was firmly focused on Tankamash’s support for
the Warintza mine and SLS. The supporters of the anti-mining Ankuash said that the pro-
mining Tankamash and his people were being sponsored by SLS and complicit with the
national government (and though difficult to prove from this distance, that’s almost
certainly true). At time of publication, the anti-mining FICSH group headed by Ankuash is
still in control of the FICSH HQ.
Meanwhile, SLS is taking what can be described as an “interesting position”, as seen in a
reply mail from SLS IR to a shareholder (usefully published on this social media site (9). In
it, SLS claims the situation and dispute has nothing to do with SLS. However, SLS also
states for the record that pro-mining David Tankamash is “…the legally recognized
President of FICSH and calls anti-mining David Ankuash “the alleged president”.
To understand why this is important, we need to understand what “legally recognized”
means. If you ask FICSH, it means that as an autonomous organization it sets its own rules
and decides on its own leadership. Therefore, when David Tankamash came back from
PDAC and was taken to task by the membership of FICSH for “selling out to the enemy”
etc, it went through its procedure to vote him out as per the organization rulebook, did so
and then elected Ankuash. However, according to the government (and obviously to
ousted President Tankamash, any change in leadership in any given organization must be
registered with the national “People’s Secretary” bureau (Secretaría de Gestión y Desarrollo
de Pueblos y Nacionalidades). This an important wrinkle, because in March this year
President Noboa named one Marco Guatemal as the head of the People’s Secretary. Mr
Guatemal is an indigenous native of Ecuador and has the right CV for the job, but
12
importantly he has also been in a long-standing fight for control of CONAIE with its current
president Leonidas Iza. As this report at the time explains (10)
Noboa appointed Guatemal to head this bureau in order to divide CONAIE and in an
attempt to wrest power away from Leonidas Iza, who has taken an aggressively anti-
Noboa stance this year. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the People’s Bureau has refused to
process the FICSH decision to change its leadership and according the Ecuador’s
government, the president ousted by its own internal and correctly followed procedure,
David Tankamash, is still (and we quote SLS) “…the legally recognized President of FICSH”.
Did you follow all that? Ugh, sorry, enough, all this is in the weeds of the politics and I don’t
know how much more you need to know (if you want more, drop me a line and ask your
question) but the upshot is that by bureaucratic maneuvering, the Noboa government can still
claim technically that Tankamash is the FICSH leader. It used that excuse to send 200 police
officers to evict its anti-mining enemies last week, however and via some “direct democracy”
(i.e. the anti-mine faction of FICSH is far greater in numbers then the pro-mining faction), the
anti-mine people re-took possession of the HQ on Friday. This is the way that SLS is trying to
impose itself on a community that, in the vast majority, does not want the mine to exist or the
project to move forward. Its also telling that despite claiming innocence and having nothing to
do with the internal power struggle at FICSH, the SLS IR desk was quick to reply with details of
the situation and had no hesitation in calling the ousted Tankamash the “legitimate” president,
despite all evidence to the contrary and reasons that hang on a single bureau in Quito refusing
to accept a piece of paper because its newly installed director is an ally of Noboa’s and an
enemy of the current head of CONAIE.
Enough Ecuador politics for one day, let’s move to the other news from SLS last week and the
very definition of “jobs for the boys” (11):
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, July 26, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Solaris Resources Inc.
(TSX:SLS, NYSE:SLSR) ("Solaris" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the appointment of
Mr. Arun Lamba as Vice President, Corporate Development, effective immediately.
It’s worth considering that SLS CEO Daniel Earle came from the ranks of sell side analysts to his
current position as Richard Warke’s factotum and here is history repeating. It begs the question
as to the real motives behind entering the brokerage game as a sell side analyst and whether
the real intention of these people is to secure a cushy, well-paid job with the juniors they are
supposed to cover as independent voices with their brokerage clients’ best interests at heart.
After this news, SLS reached new historic lows and closed at C$3.39, though that’s probably
more to so with the community risk than the arrival of a superfluous suit to head office
The Producer Basket
After 30 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 24.83% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 53.86 46.73 12.9%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 36.55 73.40 33.8%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 31.24 17.79 -1.7%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 23.95 124.64 12.5%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 7.82 21.47 31.5%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 238.22 3.88 16.30 29.0%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.49 5.65 17.5%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.24 16.01 23.4%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.54 8.41 30.8%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.38 9.25 58.7%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 24.83%
13
Down 3.35% on the week, the Producer Basket saw nine losers and the full set was only
broken by last week’s biggest loser, Franco Nevada (FNV), adding a thin 0.1% as it rebounded.
However and once again there were no massive losers, with the worst drop from Lundin Gold
(LUGDF down 5.0%) showing sellers were not panickers. Our overall basket average lost a
couple of tenths against the GDX benchmark but we still remain with a big lead, of +7.19%.
Newmont (NEM): The sector heavyweight
reported its Q2 on Wednesday 24th as per schedule
(12) and the market reaction was to call it a beat,
with the stock showing slight out-performance
against GDX the rest of the week. The beat was
based on NEM returning a net income of U$838m,
an EPS 0f 72c/share, compared to the market
consensus median of 68c. But personally, I was
mystified how anyone could call this quarter a beat.
Gold production at 1.61m oz was down from the
1.68m of Q1 (the only comparable quarter since the
Newcrest fusion) and as this chart shows, costs
continued to rise sharply:
NEM: AISC per qtr
14
319 529 819 009 388 149 139 349 879 598 548 709
6101
789 649
0301 7901 0201 3401 9301 5301 0211 6501 6511 9911 1721 5121 6731 2741 6241 5841 9341 2651
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 600
400
200
0
61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
U$/oz
source: company filings
That U$1,562/oz is the highest ever and compared to the guidance we received from the
company at the start of the year:
Newmont: Annual average AISC/oz Au
429 909 669
5401 2601
1121
4441 0041
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 tse4202
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
40% comparative to GDX control
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
U$/oz
hj
source: company filings
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2.0%
ikn 1.0%
gdx control 0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
-8.0%
source: IKN calcs -9.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
At the closure of the Newcrest deal, NEM swore blind it would deliver more efficient ounces and
for the first time in a long time, give lower AISC than the previous year. That forecast of
U$1.400/oz has turned into exactly U$1,500/oz for the first half of the year and means that in
order to make its (reiterated!) guidance it will need to operate at under U$1,300/oz for the rest
of the year, something NEM has not done since 2022. So with production down and costs up,
the only thing that saved this company from an embarrassing quarter was…
NEM: Operating margin per gold ounce
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
15
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
U$/oz Au
AISC
Avg received price
difference
source: company filings., IKN calcs
…the luck of good gold prices. Its average received price of U$2,347/oz (below left) was a
historic best and it covered the sins of
operation. This final chart isolates the NEM: Received price minus AISC, per qtr
“difference” columns above and adds numbers,
showing the net of U$785/oz. That’s good but it
should have been a lot better.
So overall, the NEM quarter left me nonplussed about its performance and was another
reminder that the opinions of sell side anal ysts
aren’t worth the virtual paper they get printed
upon.
Barrick (GOLD): The other stand-out of the NEM Q2 data was the AISC is reported for
Nevada Gold Mines (NGM by NEM, as its COGS are going to be way more expensive than
expected. Inside the NEM figures is the AISC for NGM of U$1,689/oz, up from the already high
U$1,576/oz in 1q24. The problem is that while NCM is around 16% of sales at NEM, the 61.5%
Barrick ownership and sales of 400k oz in 2q24 from a total sales of 956k oz (8) means GOLD is
going to reported high costs for around 42% of its total, guaranteed. In trading after the NEM
report, Barrick lost around 3% to its larger rival and that
looks like the tip of the iceberg to this desk. It may be a
sleeper at the moment, or perhaps the market is so used
to this company disappointing that it doesn’t care any
longer, but I wouldn’t hold this one through earnings now
we know the bad news from NGM costs.
We remind readers that gold is up around 16% in 2024
YTD and Barrick is still underwater. Quite incredible (and
not in a good way), this chart shows Barrick versus gold
(GLD proxy) for the last year and the gap that’s grown this
year.
The TinyCaps List
After 30 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 60.28% to level stakes:
165 726
398
908 217 887 856 247 637 294
024
345 035 394 494 915 156 587
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400 300
200
100
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
U$/oz
source: company filings, IKN calcs
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 248.82 26.13 0.105 61.5%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 85.319 54.60 0.64 374.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 35.84 0.335 97.1%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 21.02 0.14 -22.2%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 6.20 0.07 -30.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 6.79 0.095 26.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 12.12 0.17 30.8%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 27.82 0.57 -24.0%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 39.87 0.14 55.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 18.94 0.16 33.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 60.28%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A
quiet week for the TinyCaps list, the world is TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
looking at other places this Northern summer. There 90%
were four winners (ARIC.v, KLDC.v, PA.v, STS.v), 80%
70%
four losers (BAY.v, DMX.v, LMS.v, SURG.v) and two 60%
UNCHers (EDG.v, VAU.v) and while the overall 50%
40%
average managed to add 2.7% or so, that’s all due 30%
to the only big mover of the week, Kirkland LDC 20%
10%
(KLDC.v up 40.0%), adding two pennies and 0%
dragging it up from basement lows.
Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v): A 40% rise on one week looks impressive, but in reality it’s around
50,000 shares in thin trading:
If it were this easy to create $1.75m of market cap from U$2,500 worth of trades, we’d all do it.
A stock to avoid until it offers real new news of some shape or form.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): Monday saw news from PA (13) under the headline “Palamina Bulk
Sample Returns 3.6 g/t Gold at the Usicayos Gold Project, Peru”. The company took a 20kg bulk
16
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
sample from the target of its upcoming drill program at Usicayos for assay and gave us plenty
of information as a result. See the NR for that, but the CEo comment sums things up nicely:
“Our first 20 kg bulk sample from the SDO-E zone returned an average grade of 3.6 g/t gold
where 99.73% was determined to be liberated gold. Results from this study, along with recently
completed metallic screening and photon assaying, are aiding in establishing best protocols to
achieve representative gold assay values for the upcoming drill program.” stated Andrew
Thomson, President of Palamina.
However, waiting on the outside for drilling to start has been the right strategy until now and
that’s not going to change. The last time I spoke with CEO Thomson on the subject, he said
they’d be drilling in Q3 (i.e. now) after doing the
prep work on the site, putting in access road etc.
What last week’s news suggests is that we’re still
not close to getting the drills turning, so until they
do and the countdown to real potential market
moving news arrives, we continue to watch. As for
the price chart, that’s definitely constructive this
year and the trend has been a friend since the
start of March, but I’d expect this will still be
buyable at 15c before the drill assays arrive.
Depending on how the macro situation plays out
in the next two quarters, this may well become a
Watch List stock and eventually a purchase.
Trying to be as transparent as possible, because this zone of South Peru has real potential to
become a hot zone for gold exploration and PA has some of the best concessions out there. All
depends on the Truth Machine.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Venezuela: The Presidential election
It’s late Sunday, it took five hours for the country’s CNE electoral body to announce a
preliminary result and according to the CNE with 80% of votes fast-counted:
Nicolás Maduro: 51.2%
Edmundo González: 44.2%
To the surprise of nobody, sitting President Maduro has rigged the election result and
proclaimed himself victor. That’s a problem, because for one thing all unofficial exit polls have
called the main opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez the easy victor (the most reliable
independent pollster in the country has valid votes at 64% Gonzalez, 31% Maduro and the
other 5% dispersed among the also-ran candidate). For another, the CNE headquarters in
Caracas where the final tallying takes place refused entry to opposition electoral observers and
while we always assumed President Maduro and the ruling PSUV party would rig the result, it’s
one thing to theorize it and another to see it happening in real time.
In response to the result, the main opposition figure María Corina Machado made a measured
speech in which didn’t directly accuse the government of fraud. That would be walking straight
into the trap and giving Maduro the excuse he needs to arrest her on some or other charge.
Instead she said (translated), “…and we have seen in the streets, we know what’s happened
today. Now it’s up to us to defend truth, because it’s about all our lives.” Two things to say:
From the getgo we knew the most likely course of events would be Maduro fixing the result.
However, we also understand that the election result today is not a point of arrival, instead
17
it’s a point of departure and we’ll now see how the chips fall. The next few days will surely be
volatile, but there’s literally five months before the next Presidential period begins and that’s
a lot of time for tempers to cool and possibly talks to happen.
Related to that, it’s telling that Maduro has chosen a relatively tight result to present to the
country. 51 to 44 isn’t a blowout in dictatorial government terms and is almost certainly some
sort of signal to the opposition, one of “we need to talk” or “we understand that Venezuela
will need agreements, or coalitions, or a move away from hardline Socialism.” Choosing a
relatively tight margin is a message in itself.
But aside that, it’s another day in which democracy has been trampled upon in South America.
You’d think I was used to the feeling by now, but it’s as unpleasant as ever.
Mexico: A body from Pasta de Conchos
As we await the handover of power from Morena’s AMLO to Morena’s Sheinbaum, this Friday
brought timely news (14) from the corpse rescue operation at the Pasta de Conchos mine in
Coahuila State. Run by Grupo Mexico until a tunnel collapse at depth killed 65 of its workfornce,
Grupo Mexico infamously decided to shutter the mine without resucing the bodies of those that
died. At the start of his mandate, AMLO vowed to rescue the bodies, give their families closure
and the corpses a dignified funeral and on Friday, over four years after the rescue digging
began, the team found the first victim.
Expect AMLO to milk this news to the full in the days to come and make it as embarrassing as
possible for Grupo Mexico, a longtime enemy of his, as well as the mining industry in general.
Panama: Drawing the Cobre Panamá roadmap
My timing might have been off about President Mulino’s first mention of the Cobre Panama
issue, but since then our roadmap for its future hasn’t been far off. This coming week Panama’s
government is set to name the third party environmental auditing firm that will be charged with
the full inspection and report on the mine. That process is expected to take “between three and
six months” (so assume six) but before then, the new Environment Minister has started the
calls about the 132,000 tonnes of copper concentrate still stored under roof at the mine. He
said (translated) (15), “There’s an enormous risk with the copper concentrate in the mine, we
need to ship it out as soon as possible.” Apparently, the conc will need re-milling before
shipment and if so, that would mean 1) limited industrial activity beginning soon and 2) the
definitive breach of the flotilla blockade at the mine’s dedicated port. With those two acts, FM’s
ig mine will be a couple of obvious steps toward re-opening by the time the environmental
report is delivered to the nation around the end of the year. In response, this is what the
company had to say this week via its CEO, Tristan Pascall (16):
"We are open and committed to a dialogue with the new administration in putting together a
framework around which we can have those conversations," Pascall said. "The timing of which,
we don't see happening this year as there (are) number of complexities around it," he added.
That’s a reasonable position, mindful of the enviro audit that kicks off next week as well as
Mulino’s statement that his government won’t sit down with FM unless it withdraws its
ICSID/CIADI international tribunal case. It won’t do that, so the government will need time to
be allowed to backpedal that position.
Peru: Illegal mining’s increasing influence
As well as the Presidential message to Congress on Sunday that touched briefly on the mining
sector, talked up the Tia Maria copper project without giving it a green light and specifically
mentioning five projects Peru was looking to move into production in the near future (including
Bear Creek’s (BCM.v) Corani, see above), we had the annual vote to see which member of
Congress becomes President of the chamber and this time, the winner is one Eduardo
Salhuana. He is a controversial pick to say the least due to his established connections with
informal and illegal mining in the country (he’s the only member of Congress covering the
illegals paradise of Madre de Dios) and even before taking control of Congress for the next 12
months, has a track record of introducing law bills and amendments that favour illegal mining.
18
His appointment has caused consternation among many environmental groups and bodies
trying to reduce the levels of black market activity in Peru. Fro example, the civil group
“Transparencia” (transparency) said (quote translated) (8), “The election of Eduardo Salhuana
as president of Congress is a nefarious step toward the consolidation of power by the illegal
economies that have done so much damage
Meanwhile, José de Echave, the head of the most important mining NGO in Peru, CooperAcción,
said, “If we revise the visitors registry, he (Salhuana) is one of the members of Congress that
has received the most visits from informal or openly illegal miners in the last few years. And if
we review the laws Salhauna has proposed, it’s clear his Congressional activity is connected to
this sector.” (17) (18).
Market Watching
Deferred: It’s going to be massive next week, though.
Conclusion
IKN793 is done, we end with just one bullet point:
Last call for Florida Canyon (FCGV.v), the most obvious M&A trade in 2024.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://polymarket.com/markets/politics
(2) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/schedule-for-week-of-july-28-2024.html
(3) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8kFHxs403Y
(4) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-canyon-gold-provides-sales-110500779.html
(5) https://48p318.p3cdn1.secureserver.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-22-Program-suspension.pdf
(6) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2024/santana-operations-update-07-2024/
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-set-for-third-weekly-decline-on-chinese-demand-woes/
(8) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/fridges-not-bridges-china-veers-off-beaten-path-with-consumer-stimulus-2024-
07-26/
(9) https://ceo.ca/sls?cbbd84320914
(10) https://kchcomunicacion.com/2024/03/15/daniel-noboa-fracciona-silenciosamente-al-movimiento-indigena-de-la-
conaie-atrayendo-a-sus-lideres/
(11)
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.solarisresources.com/_resources/
news/nr-
20240726.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwja4uCyisiHAxUgQzABHYR3NFcQFnoECCYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2gfc0MHHevSR3_dk5N
gOf4
(12) https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2024/Newmont-Reports-Second-Quarter-2024-
Results/default.aspx
(13) https://www.palamina.com/news/2024/7/22/palamina-bulk-sample-returns-36-gt-gold-at-the-usicayos-gold-project-
peru
19
(14) https://www.forbes.com.mx/gobierno-identifica-al-primer-minero-rescatado-en-pasta-de-conchos/
(15) https://www.midiario.com/nacionales/urgencia-ambiental-en-cobre-panama-expertos-advierten-sobre-riesgo-
inminente/
(16) https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-quantum-ceo-does-not-165742453.html
(17) https://larepublica.pe/politica/2024/07/26/quien-es-eduardo-salhuana-el-congresista-con-vinculos-en-la-mineria-
ilegal-que-presidira-la-mesa-directiva-20242025-379288
(18) https://wayka.pe/chat-evidencia-el-interes-de-eduardo-salhuana-por-beneficiar-a-mineros-informales-e-ilegales/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
20
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
21
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
22
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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