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The IKN Weekly
Week 790, July 7th 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Jobs and Fed cuts and gold.
Fundamental Analysis: Deferred.
Stocks to Follow: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN),
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to), Contango ORE (CTGO), Menē Inc (MENE.v), Red Pine
Exploration (RPX.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), American Eagle (AE.v), Element
29 (ECU.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to), Eldorado Gold (EGO).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Surge Copper (SURG.v), Awalé Resources (ARIC.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina: The recession deepens, Bolivia: Trying to wrap up recent
coverage, Peru: Good and bad, Panama: Better news for Cobre Panamá and First Quantum.
Market Watching: Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to) kicks off the Q2 production report season.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Not the most important heads-up ever, but fair is fair so here’s the top-of-shop notice that as
long as there’s a decent price available, I plan to add to my position in Western Copper & Gold
(WRN.to) (WRN) in the days ahead. Also please note that I’m not a buyer of Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to) yet. A little more on both those decisions in today’s Stocks to Follow
section.
In Today’s Edition
 Is there a main event piece this week? I¿’m not sure, having decided to pull the
planned note on “Stocks That Could Be Good If Trump Wins” from the main fundies
section after due deliberation this weekend.
 We do get some work done though, first with a main intro that complements the pro-
silver essay of a couple of weeks ago and considers the way in which US macro data is
now driving gold higher. The anticipation of rate cuts is back on deck and this time, it
does look as though things are different. It’s all about the jobs report from here.
 Copper had a good week, silver had a good week and we feature the results in several
places in today’s edition. Both are set to continue strong, be long.
 If anything, Regional Politics is where today’s best work got done. Peru looks good in
the near term, Panama is on the mend and while I am picking fault with the Argentina
macro situation (unlike most others in the English language, the recession is an implied
positive for mining and the welcome FDI will get.
Jobs and Fed cuts and gold
Before we get up to date with last week’s US BLS Employment Report for June 2024, the way it
moves the gold market and what it implies for the future, context is required. We take you back
a month to the brief but pertinent coverage on the May jobs report as seen in IKN785 IKN785
1

dated June 2nd and IKN786 dated June 9th. In IKN785, we previewed the May report by noting
how we were closing in on a 4% headline rate:
Please note, any weakness in this month's report will signal the market toward faster and
more frequent rate cuts and there's a chance we get the psychological effect of seeing a
4-handle for the first time in a long time.
Then in IKN786, we considered the repercussions of a report that showed blowout job
generation, but a new 4-handle on the headline number:
“… the BLS Employment Report on Friday made waves and pushed the metals complex
lower, capping off a volatile week with a loss for our sector…the world latched on to the
blowout +272k NFP jobs number as evidence of continuing strength in the mighty US
economy…. What we did get was the headline unemployment rate ping 4.0% for the first
time and that’s the start of the psychological effect that will see the Fed move (or be
asked) to act.”
IKN790 back and with the backdrop in place, time to get up to date. This time last week we
noted the consensus estimates for the June Employment Report’s main numbers were “…for
180,000 NFP jobs added and the headline rate unchanged at 4.0%.” When the data showed on
Friday they came in at 206,000 and 4.1% respectively. So how could the unemployment rate
tick up even as more jobs than expected were created? We defer to Bill McBride (1):
“The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations,
however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. The
participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the
unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.”
Those downward revisions of previous month won (or lost) the day and as such, we’re now at a
point where the Fed is more likely to start cutting base rates with a view to stimulating the
economy and warding off the worst effects of any surge in unemployment. Gold reacted
accordingly:
As did silver, platinum, copper, zinc and a whole bunch of other commodities of course, but
gold is our baseline and from which all flows in the
world of mining, so we go with that. For a closer
look at the development of the key macro data for
2024, the Fed St Louis bank website (2) is the place
for official information and the chart (right) shows
the long-term development of the headline US
unemployment rate. The chosen timescale includes
the effect of the GFC, the long recovery from that
shock, the way the UR dropped under 4% in May
2018 and if it weren’t for the Covid shock, would
probably have stayed there.
2

To zero in on the post-Covid era, this chart below is an easier one from the same Fed page and
shows the rate back under 4.0% by January 2022. Until very recently, that is:
The longer-term chart is the better guide (and we could go back further, check the link to go to
1948 if you so desire) but the rising rate is becoming a more active concern for the Fed. The
Fed’s dual mandate is clear, but we also know that as time and cycles go on the US Federal
Reserve will favour one aspect over the other. When the Fed realized that transitory inflation
was nothing of the sort it focused on getting inflation back under control and, while that
number has proven to be sticky and stubborn at the 3% margin, things are better than they
were there’s now the intellectual wriggle room to change direction. And essentially, this is why
gold did what it did last week, odd timing or not. The market is pricing gold higher not just
because of the expected Fed turn point in the near future, but also because of the growing
consensus that they’ll start cutting before inflation is fully under control. That’s a double
whammy of good news for the gold price. But yes, this desk has been caught slightly by
surprise this time, what with the talk about the early arrival of the summer Doldrums in the
intro section a couple of weeks ago, but I don’t mind being proved wrong and even less when
the “mistake” makes my stocks go up. All it took was $50/oz on the gold price for the world to
start talking up its opportunity as a hedge again, as a vehicle for cimped corporate profits again
or as a way of taking advantage of Fed policy decisions again. Take your pick, but near-term
surprise or not, our real position has been crystal clear (or at least I think so).
 IKN776: “…this is the time to be long gold, HODL gold and make sure your mining
“leverage plays” are in place. Until further notice, don’t complicate your life.”
 IKN779: “…your task as a metals and mining speculator is to make sure you’re locked
and loaded and stay that way.”
 IKN783: “Is there a point in you paying good money to receive this missive every
weekend if its only real message, the one that will make you the real coin in 2024, is
“Buy Miners Hold Them and Make Profits”?”
In other words HODL, HODL, more HODL and even through the recent modest downturn
period, connected to an absence of newsflow and those early summer Doldrums as much as
anything else, our position was clear enough (I think). For example in IKN787: “…the world also
seems bored and grumpy about prices that stick above U$2,300/oz and U$4.50/lb respectively,
which I find weird.”
To wrap up the intro, the otherr thing that remains unmoving is the amount of gold currently
stored in GLD vaults. It’s been a few weeks, so today we update our GLD inventory trackers:
5.00 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2024 YTD
4.80
4.60
4.40
4.20
4.00
3.80
3.60
3.40
3 42/1/2 42/1/9 42/1/61 42/1/32 42/1/03 42/2/6 42/2/31 42/2/02 42/2/72 42/3/5 42/3/21 42/3/91 42/3/62 42/4/2 42/4/9 42/4/61 42/4/32 42/4/03 42/5/7 42/5/41 42/5/12 42/5/82 42/6/4 42/6/11 42/6/81 42/6/52 42/7/2
GLD gold holdings, 2024 YTD (metric tonnes)
900
890
880
870
860
850
840
830
820
810 source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
800
42/1/2 42/1/9 42/1/61 42/1/32 42/1/03 42/2/6 42/2/31 42/2/02 42/2/72 42/3/5 42/3/21 42/3/91 42/3/62 42/4/2 42/4/9 42/4/61 42/4/32 42/4/03 42/5/7 42/5/41 42/5/12 42/5/82 42/6/4 42/6/11 42/6/81 42/6/52 42/7/2
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

One of these fine days, people will start putting new tonnages into the GLD vaults and when
they do, it will signal that the Wall St financial bigwigs are on the same side of the trade as
Central banks, China, India, etc. The catalyst is up for debate (stock market correction, collapse
in crypto, a new inflationary impulse?) but on the day gold gets bid up from all sides we’ll see
new price highs.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Deferred
The theme I prepared for this weekend’s main edition, one in which there isn’t a lot of fundy
news on covered stocks and a quiet period for mining stocks in general (until the Q2 production
numbers start flowing, as from this week), was going to be a thinkpiece that carried the
working title “Stocks tpo buy if Trump wins”. The premise is straightforward enough, as after
the Biden debate debacle and the ensuing fall-out it’s starting to look as though a way to play
an eventual Trump victory in November would be to buy junior mining companies with US
exposure that would benefit from an easier permitting backdrop. So with notes and thoughts
prepared I sat down to write on Saturday morning but after a while. Realized that it wasn’t such
a good idea because…
 I’m not an expert on US party politics
 We’re still a long way from election day
 The debate on whether Biden stays on the Democrat ticket is still raging and until we
have some sort of definitive answer, there’s too much guesswork involved.
So after several false starts in trying to write the note, I eventually realized I was writing
something for the sake of content, rather than from a position of useful insight or personal
conviction, and spiked it. It means this weekend’s edition is lighter than the normal IKN Weekly,
but I’m going to have to live with that shame.
Stocks to Follow
A positive week for the Stocks to Follow list, with eleven of the seventeen featured stocks
registering week-over-week gains (not listing them all), four remaining unchanged (OCI.v,
ALDE.v, RPX.v, PAU.cse) and just two losers (MARI.to, MENE.v). It shouldn’t come as much
surprise to learn that the charge was led by the silver plays and the three biggest movers on
the week were Bear Creek (BCM.v up 15.2%), IMPACT (IPT.v up 14.9%) and SilverCrest (SILV
up 9.4%) respectively.
We have 17 open positions at the moment. Ten stocks are in the green, six are in the red, one
is unchanged.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.32 52.4% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.50 -37.5% Momentum now building
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$8.92 29.3% Quality Ag/Au, U$12.96 tgt
Pan Global Res PGZ.v BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.16 -15.8% 3 adds,big position,cheap Cu
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$3.80 24.6% Quality Cu developer
Bear Creek Min BCM.v SPEC BUY C$0.365 10-Jun-24 C$0.38 4.1% New risk spec on Ag & Au
Western Copper WRN.to ADDING C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.61 2.5% M&A trade, gone off boil
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% Exposed to several good jrs
Contango Ore CTGO STR BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$19.19 2.6% Production re-rate in Q3
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.30 46.3% Cheap Au in West Africa
4

SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.98 36.1% into FY24 news season now
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.27 -10.0% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.03 -84.6% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Amerigo Res ARG.to WATCH C$1.57 12-Dec-21 C$1.64 4.5% reduced Cu exposure
Red Pine Expl RPX.v WATCH C$0.08 4-May-24 C$0.085 12.5% Special situation, poss trade
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.08 -5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.12 -75.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on just a few of our covered companies this week:
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) WILL WAIT BEFORE BUYING: We got news last week.
Further to the note made last week on Michael Luzich and the way he’s been selling down his
position and as per last weekend owned 11.887m shares, or 7.2% of shares out, we got this on
Tuesday (3)
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, July 02, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Amerigo
Resources Ltd. (TSX: ARG; OTCQX: ARREF) (“Amerigo” or the “Company”)
announces that Michael Luzich has retired from Amerigo’s board of directors effective
June 30, 2024. Mr. Luzich joined the Amerigo board on May 12, 2020.
First and foremost, that means Luzich does not need to declare any further sales as he’s no
long an insider and has fewer than 10% of total shares out. That’s a potential drag on the price
action. However, occurred to this desk that we may see ARG buy that block from Luzich in
order to kickstart its 2024 share buyback program, what
with it now making good money from operations. The
company is now under blackout for its Q2 so we’re not
going to get any comment on that and we also have the
Q2 preliminary production numbers coming soon, so
even though ARG did well enough late week and ran
with copper on Friday, I’m going to wait at least until
the production number comes out (we’ve ballparked
15m lbc Cu) before making any purchase decision.
Finally, there is one other factor we need to take into
consideration, as since May this year director and large
holder Michael Luzich has been a dedicated seller of his
ARG position. The selling began in late May and from
the original 12.68m shares held by Luzich Partners, the partnership holding is now down to
11.629m and the total calculated holding (that includes Mr. Luzich’s personal position) at
11.887m, the latter representing 7.2% of total shares out. This is the third time we’ve
witnessed a burst of selling of ARG shares by Michael Luzich, with the first just before copper
rose and ran ARG higher and the second before copper slumped and dragged down the stock.
His decision may be more about a bearish view of the metal than any opinion of the company,
but its verdict certainly will depend more on the metal than the company.
5

Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): LOOKING TO ADD. So instead of ARG, I’m
going to look to WRN to add to my copper exposure and the reason is basically opportunistic.
Aside the dip in the last hours of last week, what last week’s action told me is that the market
has discounted the “Victoria Gold Effect” from WRN’s share price and there’s every reason for
that to continue. This chartv (right) shows WRN next to the copper ETF (COPX) and that was a
reasonable performance under the circumstances (and during an interrupted week for holidays
in Canada Monday and USA Wednesday/Thursday) It’s becoming clear the leach pad FUBAR at
VGCX.to is all about specific issues at the site, be that mediocre engineering when designing
the pad, ambitious parameters for the pad to keep capex down (the slope is sharp), corner
cutting and/or slipshod work when building the pad, substandard work by the company while
operating the pad or a combination of those or other factors. It’s also becoming clear that the
people on charge of VGCX…well, they shouldn’t have been and the way CEO McConnell has
gone MIA since the disaster struck is testimony to the type of person who should not be given
the keys to such an expensive machine.
In so many words, on a permitting front there’s nothing aside from generalize fear of mining to
stop Casino from going ahead. While I’d quickly agree that First Nations and the YESAB bureau
have been a bottleneck to the project over the years and Eagfle may give them new reasons to
review the mine plan, at some point it becomes apples-to-oranges even when both are open pit
operations with large civil works (e.g. Casino’s very high tailings dam project) and the more the
issues at Eagle become location/company specific,
the easier other developments in the region can
breathe. With copper putting in its run at the same
time and WRN back down very close to my original
purchase and addition prices, this looks like a good
opportunity to me to take advantage of nerves that
will calm about Casino (and others) before they will
at Eagle (and let us be clear, VGCX is in deep
trouble…rightly so, too). Therefore, as long as the
discount holds into the days ahead I’m looking to
add to this position. The extra shares added may
turn into a separate, near-term fliptrade in order to
take advantage of the window of opportunity, but
ultimately a buy is a buy.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to): After the “Becoming bullish on silver” op-ed two weeks
ago and last year’s clear statement that SILV “is my best trade idea for the next couple of
weeks”, it was pleasing to see this stock add 9.4% on the week and we haven’t even got the
Q2 production NR yet. That may show up next week, though if history is our guide we may
have to wait until the third week of July.
So don’t think for a moment that this trade has dried up already. For sure we picked a U$10.52
target price for the near-term to highlight last weekend, that based on U$29/oz silver and
U$2,300/oz gold. That implies a 17.9% upside to this weekend's share price and while I'd
6

contend that's a solid potential return for any quick flip, you may not agree. However, if we dial
up the simple sensitivities table we used last weekend again…
SILV tgt sensitivities on EPS & Metals Decks (in USD)
Price Deck 12x EPS 14x EPS 16X EPS
1 (2.2k Au, 25/oz Ag) $9.05 $10.55 $12.06
2 (2.3k Au, 28/oz Ag) $10.22 $11.93 $13.63
3 (2.3k Au, 29/oz Ag) $10.52 $12.27 $14.02
3 (2.4k Au, 30/oz Ag) $11.11 $12.96 $14.81
4 (2.5k Au, 35/oz Ag) $12.87 $15.02 $17.16
source: IKN calcs & ests
…that target moves to U$11.11 at (almost) this weekend's metals prices and we can even
justify our formal target of U$12.96 if momentum builds once again for precious metals and
silver stocks and the market affords a higher PE of 14X. That latter number implies a 45.3%
upside and if that's not juicy enough for you, I don't think The IKN Weekly will ever be useful
for your investment needs.
Contango ORE (CTGO): Better. Two Fridays ago there
was all the sub-U$17 you could eat, this weekend the
stock is back above U$19 and our trade has crawled back
into the green. In other news, we remind readers (4)
“…that the first gold pour for the Manh Choh mine will
take place at the Fort Knox mill facility on July 8, 2024”,
one of those nice moments that mining companies like to
highlight so expect video to show up at some point next
week. This weekend I refuse to muse on what price
CTGO would be using for its baseline if it weren’t for the
poor corporate communications and that darned
placement.
Menē Inc (MENE.v): I was tempted to add again, but
at some point basic portfolio management has to take
precedence so I watched on as MENE continued to see
the chunky seller liquidate its stock, seemingly happy to
take 12c. You are getting a lot of company for very little
money here.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): Part of our thesis
about this stock is how paying the 9.5c and 10c of a
month ago wasn’t necessary, better to put it on the
Watch List and wait until the market gets bored by the
lack of news and movement (compared to the grade tampering scandal moment, at least). It
now does business at 8.5c and we may see lower still before the new CEO and his team take
over next month.
7

The other part of the thesis is to assume RPX under its new management raises money via a
dilutive placement, an assumption for the classic exploreco financing window around Labor Day.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): First the current liquid asset total, which comes to an IKN estimated 8.4c
per share and that’s a arbitrage of just under 21% to this weekend’s 6c.
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.68 7.95 3.2
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.38 0.04 0.0
ARIC.v 8.33 0.56 4.67 1.9
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.36 1.50 0.6
QCCU.v 5.06 0.13 0.66 0.3
MIS.cse 24.71 0.035 0.86 0.3
Curprum privco 29.50 0.12 3.54 1.4
subtotal 19.21 7.8
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 20.71 8.4
At 247.714 S/O
Second, on Monday July 1st OCI published a 14 minute YouTube video entitled “Orecap Q3
Portfolio Update”, find that here (5). A useful overview of what’s happening at the company,
including news and views on its privco Cuprum. I see a lot of value in this tinycap with a tiny
share price.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) & Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v):
No big secret about the way these traded last week and if
we take an extra step back, consider the last two weeks
and add in comparatives in our preferred Ag play SilverCrest
(SILV) and the main silver producer ETF (SIL), there’s an
obvious pattern that’s repeated even with the shortened
trading week last week.
There’s a little extra on the BCM.v Corani permitting track in
the Peru segment of Regional Politics, below.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-seven weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 8.61% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1517.01 8.12 13.4%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 653.81 4.04 -2.2%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 353.82 3.80 10.8%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 283.49 9.60 -18.6%
5 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 168.63 0.73 -47.1%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 166.42 0.98 10.1%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 163.78 0.80 27.0%
8 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 146.29 1.34 -23.4%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 90.03 0.38 1.3%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 79.39 0.68 161.5%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 32.41 0.305 69.4%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 28.77 0.45 -22.4%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 22.58 0.13 8.3%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 15.47 0.25 -59.0%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 12.40 0.06 -14.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 8.61%
8

A welcome winning week for The Copper Basket that sees it set out into Q3 on the right foot
and add just over 4% to the baset average, so with luck the 2024 lows are now behind us. Just
four of our fifteen basket stocks were losers on the week (MARI.to, FDY.to, CCCM.v, KDK.v)
and none of those were more than a penny of a percentage point, there was also one
unchanged stock (ALDE.v). That leaves ten winners and of those, the big moves came from
Hercules Metals (BIG.v up 12.3%), Element 29 (ECU.v up 10.9%) and Camino (COR.v up 9.1%,
though that in effect was half a cent).
25%
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
The driver was, of course, the new optimism in 20%
the copper trading pit as aside from very early 15%
overnight trading a the very start of the week, 10%
action was a one-way street as funds piled back
5%
into copper positions for the Q3 romp. Our
0%
preferred benchmark, the near-dated Comex
-5%
futures contract (currently HGU24) closed at
-10%
U$4.66/lb (and change), even briefly breaking the
U$4.70/lb line early Friday morning, the first time
near-dated contract has traded that level since
late May. All good stuff and the sea change in
copper came right on the turn point we sketched out over the course of the last two issues,
IKN788 and IKN789. Just lucky I guess.
And the reason? Well, to begin with it was more about funds moving in and taking positions
again after sitting out the end of Q2, but come Friday and the sharp uptick that ended the week
with a flourish, the world was again pricing in a move by the Fed. That cues up our carefully
curated copper comment of the week, from this trade report (6):
"We believe the Fed's interest rate path will continue to drive copper's short-term price
outlook," said ING commodities analyst Ewa Manthey. "But if U.S. rates stay higher for
longer, this would lead to a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker investor sentiment, which
in turn would translate to lower copper prices."
A solid ten out of ten scored by Captain Obvious. We went for a really basic observation this
weekend, for thing because it’s totally valid. It is indeed true that US Jobs is back as the most
important dataset and the one most likely to influence timing on the start of Fed rate cuts. It’s
also true that historically, the rate cut moment is positive for commodities in general. Dr.
Copper is no exception, supposedly the one with a PhD that anticipates economic reality and
provides a lead indicator. At this point, we remind readers of our main observation from last
weekend’s edition, “…copper has held onto its price well despite the negative newsflow and
that’s a classic turn point signal for any commodity, not just this one.”
And be clear, that list of problems we offered didn’t suddenly disappear in the space of a week.
China’s housing sector downturn is still there, but last week the narrative changed from slump
9
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj
source: IKN calcs

to “hope for stimulus package at upcoming Plenary (late july). To underscore the inertia, the
latest China Manufacturing PMI reading for June
came in at last week at 49.5, the second month
running and aside that small blip early in March
and April, the same level we’ve had for over a
year and denoting a modest slowdown in activity.
The SHFE inventory levels haven’t disappeared,
instead they slightly increased on the week (see
below). Also, evidence of that rumours 100kmt
export of copper strengthened further at another
11kmt landed in LME Asia warehouses.
The moral of this story: Use the narrative offered as an indicator of the future, not the past.
It’s time for our weekly look at world copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 The aggregate of the three official world’s copper inventory systems took another leg
up, along the same lines as we saw the week before last and for the same general
reasons. This time the addition was 13,531 metric tonnes (mt) and that gave us a
Friday close of 521,384mt.
 The weirdness continues in Shanghai, as the SHFE added 2,121mt to its burgeoning
copper stocks and gave us a close of 321,642mt. See the dedicated chart below for
more, but the gap between 2024 and normality is now gaping.
 At the LME, we’re now at a three week total of +57kmt as another 11,500mt entered
its stores, once again all in Asia. The total amount of copper held in LME warehouses is
now up to 191,625mt and of that, 146,475mt is in Asia. There’s no better place to see
th bifurcation of the copper supply situation than right here, with both SHFE and LME
Asia storing copper for a rainy day, while it becomes thin on the ground in Europe and
downright scarce in North America.
 On that subject, the Comex saw another small outflow of just 90mt to close at 8,117mt
on Friday, but again we stress that it can’t really go down much further, these are true
barrel scraping levels and the lowest amount of physical copper held by Comex in the
last ten years.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows that at this time in every other year, copper stocks were at or
under 150,000mt and going lower. Not this time though, 2024 has over double that amount as
stocks remain (here comes that cliché) stubbornly high.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on some of our basket stocks:
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): The last time we ran a note on QCCU it was threatening to
bust out of a very, but very long term trading range at rhe end of May, but once again it failed
and reverted. As an ex-holder of the stock (and with some limited exposure via the OCI trade) I
von ced 1202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 3202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 4202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj
source: China PMI

fell for those frustrated by the lack of response in QCCU and know how it feels. There’s nothing
wrong with the deposit, the 43-101 came out well enough and the satellite sdrill targets are
prospective enough, so the sticking point has to be the CSR situation and the market’s doubt
that QCCU will be able to move the parts of the town of Chapais that would need to be
relocated in the event of the open pit mine being built. To that end, QCCU has made noises
recently about its community situation, saying not
only that it is engaging and in constructive talks abut
should soon be able to tell the outside world more
about the situation.
That would be welcome. At this weekend’s 13c it’s
arguably a fliptrade as stands, if copper runs toward
and to U$5.00/lb again we should expect QCCU at
the upper end of its looooong term range. From
there, if they can offer hard evidence that Chapais is
on its side and the mine can be build in harmony
with the town, the further upside should come.
American Eagle (AE.v): AE hosted a site visit this
week for industry voices and assorted interested parties, so expect them to get plenty of
column inches in the days to come. Up 7.9% on the week, a good move without being
gangbusters, it may be pricing in some of the upcoming hype but really, this trade is all about
the assays to come.
Element 29 (ECU.v): Please see the Peru note in Regional Politics today, because ECU would
surely be one of the companies to benefit from easier environmental permitting laws expected
from the national executive at the end of this month. As for ECU, it was again a big mover and
added 10.9% to regain the 3-handle we saw a couple of weeks ago. However, the important
stuff is highlighted in red:
Volume continues to be wafer thin in this high percentage rally, there’s no trusting this move
until a decent amount of shares get traded through. As things stand, it would take just one
medium-sized seller to collapse this back to 20c.
The Producer Basket
After 27 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 20.82% to level stakes:
11

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 51.30 44.51 7.5%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 34.76 69.80 27.3%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 30.62 17.44 -3.6%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 23.77 123.75 11.7%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 7.84 21.50 31.7%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 3.64 15.30 21.0%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.22 5.22 8.5%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.21 15.83 22.1%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.50 8.21 27.7%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.34 9.00 54.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 20.82%
A nice week for the producer PMs, with GDX up 6.9% on the week, GDXJ up 7.1% and gold via
the GLD proxy up 2.75%. Those good numbers were also reflected in our Producer Basket in
which all ten component stocks were winners, the range from the least best Franco-Nevada
(FNV up 4.4%) to the best-best Wesdome (WDOFF up 12.1%) as the winners keep winning.
We beat the GDX benchmark by a thin 0.15% on the week, which puts us 3.86% ahead of our
phantom competition for the year as Q3 kicks off. Also, this Friday was the second highest close
for the year, only beaten by the high spike on May 19th. That’s good.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
30% comparative to GDX control
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to): Another strong week for WDO and this one comes with
interesting timing, as we’re on the cusp of getting Q2 production numbers (2q23 NR delivered
July 13th, 2q22 NR delivered July 14th) and over the years, this stock has been a bit of a leaky
boat when it comes to non-public material information. That’s a mouthful of words to say
“vibes are good for Q2”.
If we step back and consider the longer view
and a three year chart mapping WDO (the
main Canadian list) against the GDX
benchmark, we see how the stock tracked the
world until late 2022, that’s when it
announced Kiena would take even longer than
it was already taking. That was followed by a
second drop on big volume when then-CEO
Duncan Middlemiss “was resigned”, but 2024
has seen WDO get its mojo back and regain
all that lost ground under the direction of new
CEO Andrea Bath and her team. It’s not the
first time we’ve said it this year, but that’s
okay let’s go one more time, CEO Bath has done very well and deserves all the plaudits for
getting WDO back from whence it came.
12
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2.0%
ikn 1.0%
gdx control 0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
source: IKN calcs -8.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Eldorado Gold (EGO): I’m a little late to this, but a comment arising from the company’s June
27th NR (7) entitled “Eldorado Gold Announces Extension and Increase of its Senior Secured
Credit Facility” is required. In it, EGO announced it had agreed with its lenders to increase the
size of its senior secured credit facility from U$250m to U$350m, with the U$100m accordion
unaffected. Here’s the CEO comment that came with the announcement.
“The extension and increase of our credit facility reflects the strong confidence that our lenders
have in our business,” said George Burns, Eldorado Gold’s President and Chief Executive Officer.
“We are pleased to continue our long-standing partnership with our multinational bank group, the
majority of whom have partnered with Eldorado for many years. With the Skouries project fully
funded and expected to achieve first production in the third quarter of 2025, this facility provides
additional financial flexibility to continue to strengthen and grow our business with value creating
opportunities for all our stakeholders.”
That’s all well and good, plenty of classic corporate-ese in that, but this isn’t just some bank
deciding to increase the line on one of your personal credit cards because you’ve been a good
customer. There’s only one reason a company like EGO adds $100m to a credit line; it’s
because it needs to.
We get one clue in the NR when EGO tells us that “As at June 27, 2024, no amounts are drawn
under the Credit Facility, however availability is reduced by €126.2 million in connection with
the outstanding amount of the letter of credit backstopping the Company's equity commitment
for the Skouries project.” In other words, only U$114m or so from the original U$250m facility
was available to EGO, now it has a U$214m line (or up to U$314m if anything it does qualifies
for the accordion feature. As we know EGO doesn’t need the cash for its Skouries build-out
(that was recently re-priced to take into account inflation pressures and a slight delay on the
timeline), that leaves two options:
 EGO wants to buy something
 EGO wants to get busy on other parts of its project pipeline
We should pay attention to this, because the former is unlikely (it has enough on its plate)
while the latter may mean EGO is about to announce something about either its Stratoni mine
or its Perama Hill project, both located in Greece. These are both interesting assets, with the
mothballed Stratoni silver/lead/zinc mine currently costing EGO C&M charges (and with the
right mix of metals in today’s market), while the Perama Hill project has always been a great
looking deposit on paper but has suffered from community and wider political country risk. EGO
has apparently been working hard to get stakeholders in the area on-side with the idea of a
mine. Be clear, Perama Hill is a great looking gold deposit capable of hosting a low-cost mine
that produces over 100k oz gold/annum, any positive news on this would be another good
reason to own this stock.
I’ve made no secret of my liking for this
company over the last year and a half and
so far, it’s done a good (not great, but
good) job in delivering on that promise.
We may get a production NR from the
company, but the real news to watch is
likely at the end of July when it delivers its
2q24 financials and at that point, may
decide to inform us what it wants to do
with its newly expanded line of credit.
The TinyCaps List
After 27 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 56.54% to level stakes:
13

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 248.82 31.10 0.125 92.3%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 85.319 47.78 0.56 314.8%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 33.16 0.31 82.4%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 21.77 0.145 -19.4%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 4.87 0.055 -45.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 7.86 0.11 46.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 10.69 0.15 15.4%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 30.26 0.62 -13.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 39.87 0.14 66.7%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 16.57 0.14 25.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 56.54%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps staged a decent recovery last week, TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
with just one of the ten components losing ground 90%
80%
last week (KLDC.v) and one other unchanged
70%
(EDG.v). Thatr means eight winners and that’s a lot, 60%
50%
however most weren’t big moves and the only that
40%
were in double figures were Latin Metals (LMS.v up 30%
20%
22.2%) and Awalé Resources (ARIC.v up 12.0%).
10%
0%
Surge Copper (SURG.v): If you want to own SURG
shares these days, you pay 15c. That’s what the
market says, anyway.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): Last week, this:
“…the stock has moved into a very buyable price range IF (capslock, bold type,
underscored) you can handle the obvious risk involved in putting yourself in front of a
drill play before the assays arrive.”
14
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

If you any of the wanted 50c (or below) last week, you had to buy on Tuesday because after
that the discount dried up. However, good entry price or not this trade depends on results from
the current drill program and I highly doubt anyone who bought at 50c last week flipped them
back for a 10% gain.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina: The recession deepens
Further to last week’s note on the flipside of Argentina President Milei’s economic reform,
“Regarding RIGI and passages of winter” that focused on the deterioration of GDP and
employment numbers in the country, two things to add:
1) Last week, the Argentina government beancounter bureau INDEC published the latest figures
on industrial activity in the country (9) and the best thing we can say is that at least the public
servants aren’t trying to massage the stats (something they were often a rightly accused of the
the CFK era). Industrial activity came in at -14.8% for May 2024 compared to May 2023 and -
15.2% for the first five months of 2024, compared to the same period of 2023. In the reprt, the
INDEC people measure activity in 16 different industrial sectors and of those, only hydrocarbon
refinery registered growth and some of the data are truly concerning, such as -32% in
construction, -25% in steelmaking, -19.7% in motor vehicle manufacture, -60% in ceramics (a
big thing in Argentina) and even food and drink production, which should have been on the rise
after last year’s drought that affected seed oil production in May, dropped 6.4%. If you want to
know the main driver in the inflation drop, look no further. The issue will also affect tax
revenues going forward, so the much vaunted balance of payments is now under pressure from
internal factors.
2) This contrasts with the start of this type of talk from Milei himself (10):
Argentina's Javier Milei says he might get Nobel Prize
Argentina's libertarian President Javier Milei believes his radical economic program could win him
a Nobel Prize.
"Together with my senior advisor Demian Reidel, we are rewriting a large part of economic
theory," Milei said during a visit to the Czech Republic on Monday.
"If we get it right, I will probably receive the Nobel Prize for Economics Sciences together with
Demian," he added.
Milei made the comments while purportedly accepting an award from Czech think tank, the
Liberal Institute. However, the Liberal Institute said the ceremony was an unauthorized event that
had been organized by individuals who had not been involved with the think tank for years.
Please be clear, I am rooting for Milei and his radical reform (pun not intended, for those of you
into Argentina politics) and want him to do this, but from the start this desk has been keenly
15

aware of the risks involved. While Milei is no fool and knows the risks, he also knows his
audience and understands that as long as he steers clear of the “Mission Accomplished”
nonsense remains humble and is seen to be on the side of those suffering though the current
deep recession in the country, he has a better chance. The triumphalist message from the
above is not good, not at this delicate stage. To wrap up, we offer a correction to last week’s
note in which we referred to the well-worn political saying in Argentina “Hay que pasar el
invierno”, “you have to get through the winter” as from the Alfonsin government in the 1980’s.
That’s incorrect, in fact it’s originally from 1959 and the Economy Minister at the time, Álvaro
Alzogaray, though in mitigation it regained its popularity in the 1980s.
Bolivia: Trying to wrap up recent coverage
Via intermittent reports and notes in 2024, we’ve had two basic messages about Bolivia:
 It is becoming political unstable.
 You don’t want exposure to its mining sector
The difference now is that more people are realizing this, thanks in part to the growing
bitterness between President Arce and his erstwhile MAS Party friend, Evo Morales, but mainly
to the saga of the failed coup attempt/false coup (depending on your taste) we saw in the
country and have reported on over the last couple of weeks. As a result, Bolivia is getting more
column inches from the world’s press and while the more in depth stuff is mostly Spanish
language, for example this in the Hispanic world’s newspaper of record El Pais (Spain) (11)
entitled (translated), “The Fracture Between Luis Arce and Evo Morales Casts a Shadow Over
The Future of Bolivia”, there are other wire reports on the decadence of the social side of
Bolivia out there from AP, BBC and others. So we’re not going to go over the last seven days of
slings and arrows between the protagonists here at The IKN Weekly, as there’s precious little
directly related to mining, but it does give us the chance to reiterate our call. Avoid Bolivia (like
the plague) because it’s only going to get worse between now and the 2025 election period.
Also, because the media narrative is going to tell the world about it going forward and you
don’t want to be long when larger fund managers decide to pull the plug based on their “latest”
information.
Peru: Good and bad
We have positive and negative news from one of the few truly pro-mining jurisdictions in Latin
America, so let’s do the good things first and they revolve around the 15th edition of Peru’s
annual conference for mining engineers, CONAMIN 2024 (12), which took place in Trujillo last
week. The conference had two government keynote speakers and they both delivered
significant news:
Vice-Minister of Mining Henry Luna told the audience (13) that the government planned to
promote and push forward six mining projects in the country with a total value of U$3Bn. They
include the Yumpeg, Corani, Antamina expansion and Inmaculada expansion projects and in his
speech, he made clear that “…this isn’t just the Ministry of Energy and Mines awarding permits,
but also the companies have to comply in immediate investment.” Of those, fellow Bear Creek
Mining (BCM.v) shareholders, he had particularly interesting words for Corani as he said the
project “should go ahead by the end of the year”, though he was somewhat guilty of blurring
the lines between certain projects currently applying for their first EIA permit and that of
Corani, which is a more straightforward EIA extension permit.
The second piece of good news from CONAMIN came from the current Environment Minister,
this report does his speech justice (14). Here’s the headline:
32 Mining Project Will Be Unlocked By New Regulations To Be
Announced on July 28th, Says Environment Minister
Here’s the bit from the body of the note that matters (translated):
The Minister of the Environment, Juan Carlos Castro, announced that the Government
will present a new regulation in favor of the mining industry during the presidential
message for National Holidays. This was confirmed by the Minister at the closing of the
16

XV National Mining Congress (CONAMIN 2024) held in the city of Trujillo. “At the
Ministry of the Environment we are committed to (new) environmental regulations,
which will reduce all the paperwork, is announced on July 28 by the President of the
Republic,” Castro said.
In Peru, the President always gives a “State of the Nation” type address to Congress on the
country’s Independence Day, July 28th (or 29th…it’s complicated) and it’s a tradition to get new
government plans and initiatives announced during that speech. This news coincides with the
decision by Congress last week to allow the executive new powers to enact laws without
Congressional approval. So what we have here is a potentially very positive event for the
country’s mining industry coming up soon.
As for the bad news, first we continue to highlight the abysmal voter approval ratings of both
President Boluarte and Congress, today’s latest poll (15) giving them 5% and 4% approval
respectively. This is not a sidebar point and while to date there hasn’t been massed public
protests against the current crop of ruling classes, Peru has an established track record of
street protests and we shouldn’t rule out the potential for instability to raise its head in 2024,
let alone 2025 and 2026 when the next Presidential election happens (and fwiw Antauro
Humala is still there, waiting for his moment). July and August are traditionally calm periods,
but the next seasonal “protest window” opens from September onward.
The second piece of bad news is the way battle lines are now being drawn over the Tia Maria
project. The government is selling one set of public opinion figures that are firmly based on
some sort of national consensus, while the locals around the project reacted to the news (see
IKN789 last weekend) that the company plans to re-start the project in Q3 in the expected
manner, with a snap protest march on Friday in the zone, promises of more organized protests,
roadblocks etc as well as official statements from local and regional authorities. Here’s one
report from the scene of Friday’s march (16):
“Diario Correo was on the scene to collect opinions on the re-start of activities at the Tia Maria
project. “Who is (Oscar) González Rocha (president of Southern Peru) trying to Fool? The
amount of damage he has done in Ilo, Tacna, Moquegua, they’ve been prosecuted for pollution,
but he goes to Lima to sort it all out! Here (in Islay) there is no type of social agreement at all, so
how is he going to develop all these projects in the zone?All he can do is extract water from the
river or use his license to pump water from the water table, they don’t have anything.”
A long list of local authority figures, including town mayors and heads of local organizations,
signedan open letter stating there is no social license for Tia Maria (and strongly implied there
never will be), even the regional chamber of commerce (based in Mollando, a good 40km from
the zone and generally in fabour of economic projects and financial progress) published on the
matter and stated that there was no conducive atmosphere for Tia Maria and that if the
government tried to force the project ahead, there would inevitably be conflict once again. The
potential for Tia Maria to become a flashpoint against an incereasingly authoritarian
government is latent, but obvious.
The bottom line: Expect Peru to get positive coverage from the mining industry when Boluarte
speaks on July 28th, that should help stocks exposed to the country and in particular, those
looking to permit exploration studies or mine development. However, the social tension must
not be overlooked and deaths form clashes with police musn’t be ruled out, particularly in the
hot Tia Maria zone. Nobody reading these words should swallow the recent “Tia Maria Is Going
Ahead” headlines in the English speaking press, that’s a best-case situation and even then,
we’re still a long way from a true green light.
Panama: Better news for Cobre Panamá and First Quantum
We’d covered the issues before the date on several occasions, but back in IKN781 dated May
5th, we reported on victory of José Raúl Mulino and as part of that note, sketched out a
pathway for the contentious issue of the massive Cobre Panamá mine, owned by First Quantum
(FM.to) and shuttered since December. Here’s how we put it at the time:
We ballpark the following:
 Mulino assumes office.
17

 The new assembly is more anti-mining than the new President
 Both get a honeymoon period, nothing happens this year
 The new President is lobbied by FM and eventually opens the debate on mining, first by allowing
the 120,000mt or so of copper concentrate still stored on site at Cobre Panama to be exported.
This breaks the port blockade.
 President Mulino points to the severe financial penalty Panama would suffer if it lost the
ICSID/CIADI international tribunal, then attempts to bring parliament around to a negotiated
settlement with FM.
All this will take some time, of course.
IKN790 back. Last week July 1st, President Mulino took office and to my surprise, didn’t wait
around before putting Cobre Panamá on the agenda. As part of his inaugural speech, Mulino
said this (translated):
“I will order and strict environmental audit of the mine, with the best international experts so that
the country finds out the truth about the state of the locality, its surroundings, rivers, flora and
fauna and the potential dangers that it poses to the current environment, be it open or closed.
Panama will choose the auditing firm and at no cost to the State. The plan to “open to close
definitively” safely and positively for our country will depend on the results of this environmental
study.
In reaction, Panama’s main daily paper La Estrella reported (17) that FM.to was ready to
converse with the new government to “find a solution to the conflict”. The speech on July 1st
was politically astute and indicated the new President favoured an “open to close” policy, in
which limited work would be allowed at the mine and the stored concentrate allowed to be
exported (reportedly 130,000 tonnes of the stuff, no small amount) with a view to making the
mine safe and allowing its phased and complete closure. However, even though Mulino’s official
words on Cobre Panamá came earlier than this desk expected, the line taken fits with our
scenario. We now get an enviro audit and do not be surprised at all, as in AT ALL, when the
results come back and the country is informed that it’s possible to re-open the mine under new
and stringent enviro controls, avoid that massive internation tribunal lawsuit and bring jobs and
hard dollars into the country, etc etc.
As for the company, FM has done fairly well
against peers in the last threen months. We’ve
noted three moments on this chart stacking FM.to
against the main copper producers’ ETF (COPX
and spot copper (HG00), namely 1) when Mulino
won the election, then 2) reaction when Mulino
recently stated that he was willing to talk to the
company (I forgot to mention that on these pages,
bad analyst) and 3) last week’s inaugural speech,
which saw the stock murmur a little but when the
market realized Mulino was probably playing a
long game, recovered.
Market Watching
Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to) kicks off the Q2 production report season
It’s often the first to report its quarterly production numbers (though as a royalty/streamer
company it’s “attributable sales” here) and that happened this quarter when on Friday
Sandstorm Gold Ltd (SAND) (SSL.to) gave us its preliminary figures for 2q24 (18). The
information was short and not so sweet:
During the three months ended June 30, 2024, the Company sold approximately 17,400 attributable
gold equivalent ounces1 and realized preliminary revenue2 of $41.4 million (24,504 attributable gold
equivalent ounces and $49.8 million in revenue for the comparable period in 2023). Preliminary cost
of sales, excluding depletion2 for the three months ended June 30, 2024, was $4.7 million resulting
in cash operating margins1 of approximately $2,043 per attributable gold equivalent ounce1 ($5.6
18

million and $1,744 per attributable gold equivalent ounce for the comparable period in 2023,
respectively).
That sucks and here’s why:
SAND: AuEq sales per qtr
19
42401 06421 10921 43801
1598
18311 71521 88521 54231 85551 05721 39241 23021 58641 56441 41341 05141 17041 00461 98271 00161 39331 02901 86021 59751 00471 40081 41551 68561 14781 67291 60622 35712
86382
00542 32112 05232 61302 00471
30000
27500
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500 10000 7500
5000
2500
0
41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
AuEq Oz
source: company filings
The 2q24 sales are the lowest since 4q21, that despite the expansion of its producing royalty
and stream book. It’s also around 37,700 oz AuEq for the first half of 2024, which compares to
2024 guidance of between 75,000 and 90,000 oz AuEq as forecast in its 2023 YE MD&A
published February 15th 2024. Though we can expect some improvement in production at the
back end of 2024, SAND isn’t going to get anywhere near the top end of its range and as things
stand, is only scraping in at the bottom.
It gets worse when you factor in the number of shares out at the company these days:
SAND: AuEq sales per million shares outstanding
37.88 02.601 31.901 46.19 54.96 15.28 51.19 07.38 81.78 93.201 88.38 65.87 68.56 87.97 24.87 09.77 32.87 66.87 23.29 16.89 48.09 88.67 32.75 61.36 09.08 64.98 83.29 94.08 45.68 05.79 72.001 07.08 97.27 87.59 27.28 23.17 05.87 02.86 14.85
120
110
100
90
80
70
60 50 40
30
20
10
0
41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 42q2
source: company filings, IKN calcs
On a per-share basis, the only quarter worse than the
one just reported by SAND is 2q20, i.e. “The Covid SAND: Quarterly Revenues
Quarter” and that’s nothing to be proud about. As for
revenues, they benefited from an implied average
received price of U$2,313/oz gold but, at U$41.4m,
wins no prizes and the implied gross profit of U$35.5m
is U$7m lower than 1q24.
All that adds up to a SAND set to continue its track
record of underperformance compared to peers
(Wheaton WPM, the star playt recently) the gold
producer sector (GDX) and even gold bullion (GLD). It’s
quite a thing to have a worse track record than Barrick (GOLD) as a supposedly “safe”
royaltyco. Glad I stayed away.
0.13 4.62 6.72 8.92 4.53 0.63 0.93 4.83 0.44
8.94
3.14 5.44 8.24 4.14
55
50
45
40
35
30
25 20 15
10
5
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
U$m
source: company filings/IKN ests

Conclusion
IKN790 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Not the longest edition today. It happens from time to time.
 Our bullish position on silver, copper (and yes, gold too) had a week of confirmation
and with the Fed now under examination for the start of reate cuts, that’s likely to
continue. Be long, hold on.
 On re-reading today’s Regional Politics note on Argentina I think I may have been
overly negative and critical. The idea is that you’re aware of the potential downside to
Milei policies, the proposed transformation cannot happen without some pain and if
Argenitna can come out the other side of this process, there’s a prize on offer that’s far
more important than anything The Nobel Institute can offer.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/comments-on-june-employment-report.html
(2) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
(3) https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/amerigo-announces-board-director-changes-2024-07-02
(4) https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-announces-first-gold-pour-at-manh-choh-on-july-8-2024
(5) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhrqiHzuAmA
(6) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-hits-three-week-high-on-interest-rate-hopes/
(7) https://www.eldoradogold.com/news-and-media/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/Eldorado-Gold-
Announces-Extension-and-Increase-of-its-Senior-Secured-Credit-Facility/default.aspx
(8) https://www.infobae.com/economia/2024/07/05/la-industria-cayo-148-en-mayo-y-la-construccion-se-desplomo-326/
20

(9) https://www.dw.com/en/argentinas-javier-milei-says-he-might-get-nobel-prize/a-69461840
(10) https://elpais.com/america/2024-07-01/la-fractura-entre-luis-arce-y-evo-morales-ensombrece-el-futuro-de-
bolivia.html
(11) https://conamin.cdlima.org.pe/index.php/feria/
(12) https://energiminas.com/2024/07/04/minem-espera-otorgar-permisos-a-seis-proyectos-por-us-3000-millones-en-lo-
que-resta-del-2024/
(13) https://www.infobae.com/peru/2024/06/30/destrabaran-32-proyectos-mineros-con-nueva-regulacion-anunciada-
para-el-28-de-julio-afirma-ministro-del-ambiente/
(14) https://larepublica.pe/politica/2024/07/07/encuesta-de-iep-congreso-tiene-solo-un-4-de-aprobacion-dina-sigue-en-
5-80647
(15) https://rpp.pe/economia/economia/alcaldes-y-juntas-agricolas-de-islay-sobre-tia-maria-no-tiene-licencia-social-y-es-
inviable-noticia-1567134?ref=rpp
(16) https://diariocorreo.pe/peru/tia-maria-pobladores-de-cocachacra-en-arequipa-se-concentran-para-protestar-contra-
proyecto-video-noticia/
(17) https://www.laestrella.com.pa/panama/nacional/first-quantum-minerals-busca-solucionar-crisis-de-cobre-panama-
mediante-dialogo-con-el-nuevo-gobierno-KN7258682
(18) https://www.sandstormgold.com/sandstorm-gold-royalties-announces-2024-second-quarter-sales-and-revenue-
financial-results-to-be-released-august-1/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
21

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
22

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
23

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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