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The IKN Weekly
Week 789, June 30th 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, More holidays more elections and more crazy, Jobs on deck.
Fundamental Analysis: SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) is my best trade idea for the next
couple of weeks.
Stocks to Follow: Menē Inc (MENE.v), Ero Copper (ERO)(ERO.to), Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to), Contango ORE (CTGO), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to),
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN), Bear Creek Mining
(BCM.v), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Quarter end snapshot, Hercules Metals (BIG.v), Solaris
Resources (SLS.to), American Eagle (AE.v), American Eagle (AE.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Quarter end snapshot.
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Surge (SURG.v), Awalé (ARIC.v).
Regional Politics: The quiet expansion of Chile’s mining industry in 2024, Argentina:
Regarding RIGI and passages of winter, Bolivia: Another day another attempt coup d’etat, Peru:
Tia Maria back in the headlines.
Market Watching: Testing myself on 35 exploration stage copper companies (Part Three).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main fundies note is part refresher on SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) and
the strength of its fundamentals, part near-term trade idea. With Q2 now in the books
and quarterly production data from many operators next on deck, the opportunities
offered by today’s market look compelling as strong earnings are about to crash into
depressed valuations for precious metals miners. For my taste, SILV is a prime
opportunity to make some cash in a near-term trade and today’s first-person-centric
note lays out why.
 Today’s edition also gets plenty of office work done, as we wrap up the first half of the
year with the normal reviews of the Copper and Producer baskets. Winners, losers,
runners and riders, plus the copper juniors update, plenty of other tables and things.
 Our belief that the copper sub-sector is at its turn point got stronger over the week, we
have the heady combo of bad and negative newsflow but a copper price that refuses to
crack lower. This is what happens when things stop going down and it will only take a
simple change of narrative or data to start the rebound higher from here.
 Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) is back on the Stocks to Follow but I’m already slightly
regretting the choice of exactly where, because it probably shouldn’t just a Watch List
component and I may pull the trigger very soon.
 As for Regional Politics, more evidence that Chile’s mining sector is doing better than
the English language narrative would have you believe, we offer the flipside to the
purely positive narrative on Argentina, Peru’s Tia Maria is back as a bone of contention
(and that’s unlikely to end well) and we also take time out to walk through the mondo
1

bizarre that was Bolivia last week. That one isn’t directly about mining but as Evo
Morales is one of the central characters, we FDI people need to pay attention.
More holidays, more elections and more crazy
Believe it or not, we’re already half way through 2024 and that means North America has
traditional breaks scheduled. The holidays next week include Canada Day on Monday, which
means Canadian exchanges are closed for business, then comes US Independence Day on
Thursday and as usual, that means a 1pm close of trading on Wednesday July 3rd and the
markets stay closed until July 5th. Enjoy those cookout burgers and the celebrations, esteemed
North American readers.
A world of elections are now in our collective faces, with France going to the polls twice in the
next couple of weeks for its snap election, those votes starting this weekend. Then also on July
4th the UK votes and barring a shock for the ages, Keir Starmer will become its new PM.
However, the one that really matters is in the USA later this year. This desk is not going to go
down that rabbit hole and as mentioned last weekend, you can get far better opinions on the
US election from thousands of other voices and places, but after last week’s debate (debacle?)
between Trump and Biden I’m going to voice one obvious opinion before shutting down the
subject here at The IKN Weekly: The Democrat convention in six weeks’ time is now an
extremely important date and if Biden/Harris is still the ticket on the other side of that
conference the logical thing to do is to price in a Trump victory, with all that might imply.
Jobs on deck
Even though we have a holiday interrupted week, the macro cycle doesn’t stop and as Friday is
the first one of the month, the US BLS will give us its Employment Report for June 30, 2024
that day. At present (1) consensus is for 180,000 NFP jobs added and the headline rate
unchanged at 4.0%. Place your bets on the under/over, ladies and gents. Also, please note that
we may also get a hangover effect on Friday morning, as the FOMC minutes are released on
Wednesday at 2pm, one hour after trading stops for the NYSE’s Independence Day break. If
that document shows turmoil under the surface of the Fed or clues that we may get rate cuts
sooner rather than later, that won’t show in US equities before the Friday open.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) is my best trade idea for the next couple of weeks
This question comes in frequently and when it does, it’s never an easy one to answer. I don’t
normally know what to do with it in relation to this publication because, though never averse to
near-term trade set-ups or speculations aimed at making a quick flip difference (we run them
from time to time), the way The IKN Weekly is runs reflects my preference for longer-term
trades based on solid companies and good fundamentals (e.g. MAI.v). If not that, then at the
least we go for asymmetric risk/reward opportunities in oversold stocks that might not be the
best junior, but offer great entry points (e.g. BCM.v). In so many words, this isn’t a tipsheet for
traders and never pretends otherwise, but it’s normal and natural to get inquiries of this ilk.
Anyway, that’s the overview for today’s note that presents my best idea of the way to play an
upcoming niche in the market season. We have this scenario:
 Silver and gold prices that have elevated sharply in the last quarter
 Silver and gold producers have seen some increases, but laste quarter trading has
eaten into the gains
 A clear discrepancy between market perception for gold and silver stocks and the
potential for at least some of the sector companies to out-perform expectations as
we enter reporting season.
2

As such, our forcus is on companies that are set to impress the market with revenues growth
and operational profitability, even net profits where applicable and after due consideration,
SilverCrest fits that bill to a tee and I’ll now explain why.
We first consider the change in metals prices in Q2 and this comparative chart shows the
differences. We can argue the toss over the pennies and it will always matter when companies
sell their metal (they can get lucky/unlucky on the ebbs and flows) but the numbers quoted are
a reasonable approximation to the reality of 2024 and show that the average price for silver has
risen by an impressive 22.9% in 2q24 compared to the previous quarter, while gold is up an
equally impressive 12.2%:
However and at the same time the median for silver stocks, as measured by the main silver
miner ETF (SIL), is up by around 12%, while the median for gold stocks as measured by the
main gold miner ETF (GDX) is up by around 6%. There is of course no strict reason why the
miners should perform the same or even better than the underlying metals and we’ve all
witnessed the way the mining companies often shoot themselves in the foot with substandard
operational results or corporate moves that run contrary to the requirements of shareholders,
but the gap in performance in such a short space of time catches the attention and suggests to
this desk that the miners, as a group, as being underestimated coming into the Q2 production
and financial reporting season. In a normal world they’ll even provide leverage to the metals.
As you’ve surely noticed by now, the above chart also includes the performance of SilverCrest
Metals (SILV) in the same period, this publication’s preferred exposure to the silver sector. SILV
has done better than most, with an improvement of around 20% in the same period, but it too
has seen a pullback from the best prices of mid and late May. While it may be tempting to look
past SILV to other silver (or gold) stocks that have underperformed in the period with an eye to
them playing catch-up, this isn’t the case when filtering for a near-term winner based on what
we’re about to get in production and financial data. In the near-term, better targets are stocks
showing relative strength and also those that can return meanginful production and profits.
3

So why SILV in the weeks to come? First we consider forecast production and while the
company has guided for lower head grades than 1q24, tonnage throughput is set to increase as
SILV puts in a full quarter with no mill downtime. As such, we’re expecting quarters to be very
much in line with annual guidance and our guidance median is 1.4m oz silver and 14,150oz
gold per quarter for the rest of 2024 (with some leeway to the conservative side built into the
gold number).
Another place where we err to the conservative side is with average received prices, assuming
U$27/oz for silver and U$2,250/oz for gold. That brings a total calculated top line revenue
forecast of U$69.64m, with the silver/gold revenues mix at approximately 54%/46%.
SILV: Calculated revenues by metal, per qtr
4
66.1202
86.62
82.13
86.62
23.53
82
28.53
38.13
23.92
9.03
7.23
48.13
8.73
55.23
2.93
23.43
24
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
SILV: Silver production & sales, per qtr
U$m
Au calc revs
Ag calc revs
source: company filings, IKN calcs
And if all works to plan and costs come in as guided, that’s a Mine Operating Income of around
30c/share. That’s set to improve further in the second half of this year as its new contractor
beds in and starts delivering on the expected improvement in on-site costs (and what could
possibly go wrong?).
Regarding that forward view, if we plug in today’s approximate metals prices and use U$29/oz
for silver and U$2,300/oz for gold, then use a reasonable 12X multiple to EPS, that points us at
a U$10.52 price target representating a 29% upside to this weekend’s share price. And
although the target box marks that as a 12-month target, this desk firmly believes that type of
upside is attainable in the near-term future. It is, after all, what today’s update is all about.
41.0 1
63.1 54.1 35.1 72.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
Moz Ag SILV: Gold production & sales, per qtr
prod
sales
source: company filings
00411 00241 00431 00541 00161 00051 05141 05141 00341
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
Oz Au
prod
sales
source: company filings
SILV: Quarterly Earnings overview
7.2 8.0 9.1
8.04 3.41 5.62 0.85 4.22 6.53 0.26 7.32 3.83 8.36 4.62 5.73 3.16 4.42 9.63 6.36 2.62
5.73
6.96 5.52 1.44 7.17 0.42 7.74 3.67 5.42 8.15
80
70
60
50
40 30 20
10
0
22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
SILV: EPS and Mine Op Inc per share, per qtr
U$m
revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
source: company filings
71.0 10.0 21.0 81.0 81.0 42.0 61.0 62.0 12.0 62.0 42.0 52.0 32.0 52.0 42.0 03.0 82.0 23.0 92.0
53.0
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15 0.10 0.05
0.00
22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
U$/share
EPS
MOI
source: company filings, IKN calcs

SILV Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data for SILV based on
Price deck 1 2 3 4 current price deck (U$29/oz Ag, U$2,300/oz Au)
Sales (U$m) 254 281 291 324 12-month target $10.52 based on 12x EPS at
Sales growth 11% 4% 11% Upside to target 29% U$29/oz Ag & U$2,300/oz Au
EPS 0.75 0.88 0.93 1.07 Mkt cap (U$m) $1,200 Enterprise value $1,144
FCF 1.18 1.30 1.35 1.49 P/sales (1) 4.28 EV/sales (1) 4.08
P/E (1) 10.8 EV/EBITDA (1) 6.2
P/E (2) 9.3 EV/EBITDA (2) 5.4
P/E (3) 8.8 EV/EBITDA (3) 5.1
That U$10.52 target is good enough in the near-term, but doesn’t reflect the deeper potential
of the stock in a better metals price scenario. For that, we consider price sensitivity at various
metals decks and PE ratios as seen here:
SILV tgt sensitivities on EPS & Metals Decks (in USD)
Price Deck 12x EPS 14x EPS 16X EPS
1 (2.2k Au, 25/oz Ag) $9.05 $10.55 $12.06
2 (2.3k Au, 28/oz Ag) $10.22 $11.93 $13.63
3 (2.3k Au, 29/oz Ag) $10.52 $12.27 $14.02
3 (2.4k Au, 30/oz Ag) $11.11 $12.96 $14.81
4 (2.5k Au, 35/oz Ag) $12.87 $15.02 $17.16
source: IKN calcs & ests
We’re currently using a 12X multiple, but that can quickly bump back up toward 14X and
beyond if the sector starts picking up momentum, or gold and silver prices begin to run, or
both. I’m not the person who sets targets based on what I hope silver and gold will trade for in
the future, those are targets best considered on a step-by-step basis, if you want to dream of
U$2,500/oz gold and U$35/oz silver (not that difficult, to be honest) that U$17.16 price target
would represent a 110% upside from this weekend and while it won’t get there in one jump, I
think it’s perfectly attainable given the right macro backdrop.
Bottom line: In around two weeks’ time, SilverCrest will drop its 2q24 production numbers on
the market and following that in early August, its financial results. SILV is one of those
companies that offer plenty of information in its preliminary production data NR, including
preliminary sales and average received prices, so with that document we’ll have enough to
make reasonably close guesstimates to its 2q24 financial results and as such, it’s likely to
become the first real catalyst day. Being on by then should get you the best prices, then
holding though to results and the moment that the non-mining generalists crunch the numbers
and see strong earnings compared to market cap should provide the second boost. Assuming
favourable metals prices over the next five to six weeks, SILV at current prices offers an
excellent opportunity to trade for a near-term profit under these circumstances, this advice
separate from your author’s preferred strategy to wait the market out over the longer term and
get the real win from well-bought shares at U$6.90.
This earnings season for mining companies is going to creep up on the non-mining world
unawares. Driven by the strong improvement in average prices for gold and silver, those in turn
masked by the recent weakness that has seen the hot money leave the sector, the result is a
large selectionof low-hanging fruit. This desk isn’t
trying to suggest SILV is the only way of playing the
upcoming niche, but it’s certainly a strong candidate
and its combo of profitable operations, full exposure
to the increases in gold and silver and recent relative
strength in trading is trhe right one (and it also helps
to have a full NYSE listed ticker). Looking for a way
to pay your summer vacation costs? Look no further.
5

Stocks to Follow
The end of Q2 brought a generalized dumping of junior stocks there was no escape for our list.
It’s a downer when a portfolio gets hit like this while underlying metals remained largely
unchanged, but sometimes it’s the way it is for people like me who take stands on stocks for
fundamental reasons and don’t try to trade in and out of positions on near-term market
sentiment. Just one of the 17 on our list was a week-over-week winner (CTGO) and that only
because of a late Friday window dressing. Four others remained unchanged on the week
(OCI.v, ALDE.v, MIRL.cse, PAU.cse) and that means 12 losers, so we’re not listing them all. We
do however show the biggest losers and they start with Merne Inc (MENE.v down 19.4%) and
continue with Bear Creek (BCM.v down 12.0%), Pan Global (PGZ.v down 11.8%), Marimaca
(MARI.to down 9.4%), Western (WRN.to down 8.8%), Newcore (NCAU.v down 7.8%) and
Minera Alamos (MAI.v down 7.7%), a list too long for its own good.
We’ve swapped Amerigo for Ero on the Watch List, which means there are still 17 open
positions but one green line is turned into a red line. In total eight are in the green, eight are
red, one is unchanged.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.30 54.8% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.49 -38.1% Momentum now building
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$8.15 18.1% Quality Ag/Au, U$12.96 tgt
Pan Global Res PGZ.v BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.15 -10.5% 3 adds,big position,cheap Cu
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$3.84 37.7% Quality Cu developer
Bear Creek Min BCM.v SPEC BUY C$0.365 10-Jun-24 C$0.33 2.7% New risk spec on Ag & Au
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.56 9.3% M&A trade, gone off boil
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% Exposed to several good jrs
Contango Ore CTGO STR BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$18.07 -3.4% Production re-rate in Q3
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.295 56.1% Cheap Au in West Africa
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.98 36.1% into FY24 news season now
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.235 -16.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Amerigo Res ARG.to WATCH C$1.57 12-Dec-21 C$1.55 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Red Pine Expl RPX.v WATCH C$0.08 4-May-24 C$0.085 12.5% Special situation, poss trade
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.08 -5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.48 6-Dec-20 C$0.125 -74.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on just a few of our covered companies this week:
6

Menē Inc (MENE.v): ADDED. As suspected and
reasoned over the last couple of weeks, MENE still has
its lumpy seller and was easy to buy at prices under
15c. So I did and as a result, the cost average jagged
down considerably as this is a decently sized addition,
rather than the drip-drip small tranches I’ve added over
the months and years. The five-day chart shows the
continued chop in trading, this is what you tend to see
at a bottom where the price is true bargain basement
but there’s still an obvious seller out there, determined
(under orders?) to liquidate.
Ero Copper (ERO)(ERO.to): Removed from Watch List. Underscoring one of the main
reasons we’ve dropped ERO from the list, the stock beat the sector headwinds last week and
moved up another C$1.10, or 3.9% if you prefer. Indeed, it even re-took the C$30 level on
Thursday and early Friday morning before sellers took their profits, action that sets it apart
from most (not all) copper stocks last week. After all, ERO isn’t leaving our list due to failure,
quite the contrary in fact.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Added to Watch List, MAY BUY SOON. As advertised last
weekend, we replace ERO with ARG on the Watch List as from this weekend. Down 2c on the
week, ARG basically floated around a tight price range without threatening either boundary
seriously. As for news, we got confirmation that its zone in Chile went through another round of
bad-not-catastrophic weather as supposed when writing up on the stock last weekend. ARG
offered relevant details in its NR (2) that also gave a new estimate for lost production in Q2. We
quote:
“The impact on production from these rains is estimated at 1.0 million pounds of copper. MVC’s
2024 production guidance of 62.4 million pounds of copper and 1.2 million pounds of
molybdenum remains in place, as actual production outperformed guidance before these rains.”
That’s inside the realms of the reasonable and the issues this year are clearly not as severe as
those in 2023. We’ll stick with our guesstimate of 15m lbs Cu for 2q24, as used in last week’s
analysis. As for the “MAY BUY SOON” in that title line, the more I watched its tape and thought
about it, the more I thought it a little silly to have ARG on the Watch List instead of opening a
real position and owning some shares. So I’m going to observe it closely for the next few days
and make some sort of proactive decision by next weekend, partly because next week is the
start of H2 but mainly because I think copper is ready to run higher.
Finally, there is one other factor we need to take into consideration, as since May this year
director and large holder Michael Luzich has been a dedicated seller of his ARG position. The
selling began in late May and from the original 12.68m shares held by Luzich Partners, the
partnership holding is now down to 11.629m and the total calculated holding (that includes Mr.
Luzich’s personal position) at 11.887m, the latter representing 7.2% of total shares out. This is
the third time we’ve witnessed a burst of selling of ARG shares by Michael Luzich, with the first
just before copper rose and ran ARG higher and the second before copper slumped and
dragged down the stock. His decision may be more about a bearish view of the metal than any
opinion of the company, but its verdict certainly will depend more on the metal than the
company.
Contango ORE (CTGO): A bit of Q2 window dressing and tape painting on Friday saw CTGO
rush from under U$17 to close at over U$18 on Friday, which is a fakey trading of course but
we also know CTGO can get thrown around like this on low-ish volumes fairly regularly, so I
wouldn’t automatically expect this pop to be sold next week.
I’m still wincing from the pain inflicted by that price murdering placement. While revisiting my
XLS file on the stock last week I took time over the details of the hedge program and couldn’t
help but shake my head over the way the company misdirected the market over its financing
plans.
7

Q: Why place a hedge on the majority of its production? A: To satisfy financial backers, that’s
normal and there wasn’t an issue when CTGO did that
Q: Why run a placement to appease financial backers even further once the deal is closed? A: I
have no idea, as aside from the highly unlikely scenario of force majeur, the hedge guarantees
that the backers get their money.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): The NR from RPX on Thursday (3) was a reminder of two
things, firstly that Wawa still has plenty of high-grading though rather skinny underground
veins at its main Suruga-and-environs target…
Red Pine Intercepts Significant Mineralization at the Wawa Gold Project, including 3.10
g/t gold over 16.61 m including 40.20 g/t gold over 1.00 m
…and secondly that the market isn’t going to buy into the
promo until the new CEO officially joins, applies a new broom,
gets the resource updated and lays out the plans for how he
sees the future of exploration and how he intends to unlock
the potential at the project. There wasn’t even any big rush
for the door on Friday and the end of Q2, which suggests
anyone who was going to sell and take their loss, has already
done so.
Those new broom plans are almost certain to include a large
and dilutive placement at current levels. Put those factors
together and it’s why we’re watching RPX at these bargain
basement levels but not buying yet.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): After the sudden run in MARI
late last week for no particular reason, we kind of anticipated
a retrace in last weekend’s edition and yes, it happened. Any
MARI shares under $4 are cheap MARI shares, if you ask me.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Back on May 2nd, PAU
announced its intention to sell 15m units at 8c (share + 12c
warrant) to raise C$1.2m. On Friday they announced the
closure of the “first tranche” of the placement, in order words they needed to file the quarter
with treasury. However, the result of 12,913,750 units solid to raise gross proceeds of just over
C41m really wasn’t that bad and with that, the company has the funds for its announced drill
program. An okay result, what remains to be seen is whether PAU can get traction from drill
assays this time, because so far they have managed to deliver interesting results without much
market movement. I suspect some sort of initial 43-101 compliant maiden resource will be a
more obvious catalyst point, further into the future. Certainly very cheap if the word starts
8

getting out and the company can address market concerns about its address State. Happy to
watch for the time being.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): Our only real exposure to the mess made by
Victoria Gold (VCGX.to) and its leach pad failure in the Yukon, WRN was sold down last week by
a market that is pricing in a new round of permitting issues for large-scale mining in the region.
I get the point, I also understand the reasoning behind the “S/He Who Panics First” rationale
that saw sellers step away from the Yukon on the news, but I’m not going to be a seller here.
The main specific concern with WRN is the mine plan that includes a high tailings dam and
that’s fine, but it’s a very different situation to that of Eagle and its steeply engineering leach
pad for gold. It’s also a little patronizing for the mining commuity to think that all mining will be
lumped into one bucket by First Nations and local environmental authorities, just because one
project (that already had a bad reputation locally has turned catastrophic.
My decision to persist in this trade in light of the Eagle pad failure was all about going back and
revisiting the initial reason to buy; that’s all about Sandeep Singh coming in to sell the
company, it’s about Newmont downsizing on held assets, it’s about a deal being struck for
buyers with long-term vision on a combo of Coffee and Casino. After copper’s move up this
quarter and on seeing the way WRN reacted positively to the C-suite changes, I didn’t expect
the stock to revisit my nicvely timed purchases but last week showed that presumption to be
wrong. On the other hand, it doesn’t invalidate the buy thesis and these political moments can
provide windows for majors, e.g. RTZ, to pick up their comparative bargains.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) and IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): Both unpopular with silver
currently out of fashion, both saw modest selling as people cleaned up dregs an unpleasant dirt
from public portfolios at quarter end, both dropped harder tan they should as bidders stayed
well away. These are the prices that easily witness +20% moves in one day if silver reverts and
moves higher. And it will, just depends on when.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-six weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 4.59% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1513.27 8.10 13.1%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 618.20 3.82 -7.5%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 357.54 3.84 12.0%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 274.63 9.30 -21.2%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 166.42 0.98 10.1%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 165.82 0.81 28.6%
7 Hercules Metals BIG.v 1.38 231 150.15 0.65 -52.9%
8 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 138.65 1.27 -27.4%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 84.10 0.355 -5.3%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 73.55 0.63 142.3%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 29.22 0.275 52.8%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 29.09 0.455 -21.6%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 21.71 0.125 4.2%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 15.78 0.255 -58.2%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 11.37 0.055 -21.4%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 4.59%
The pain was apparent in and among plenty copper juniors and not just the ones I own, but
somehow the basket average managed to add a couple of tenths thanks to a handful of stocks
9

that had already put their big drop in and
managed to bounce a little. The headcount comes
to four winners (BIG.v, ASCU.to, AE.v, ECU.v) six
losers (NGEX.to, SLS.to, LA.v, MARI.to, OCO.v,
CCCM.v) and five unchanged stocks (ALDE.v,
FDY.to, KDK.v, QCCU.v, COR.v). The 2024 basket
managed to avoid all the big losers and were
successfully countered by just four winners (and
those lucky UNCH) because three of those were
larger sized, headed by Hercules Metals (BIG.v up
10.2%) and followed by American Eagle (AE.v up
8.6%) and Element 29 (ECU.v up 7.8%).
It’s the end of the second quarter and that means it’s time for our league table snapshot of the
15 component stocks and how they’ve been doing. Because one of our stocks is so far ahead of
the others, you again get two visuals rather than one to help the eye. Here’s the full list:
The 2024 Copper Basket after 26 weeks
10
%3.241
%8.25
%6.82
%1.31 %0.21 %1.01
%2.4
%3.5- %5.7-
%2.12- %4.12- %6.12- %4.72-
%9.25- %2.85-
175%
150%
125%
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
-75%
v.EA v.UCE ot.YDF ot.XEGN ot.IRAM v.EDLA v.UCCQ v.OCO ot.SLS v.AL v.ROC v.KDK ot.UCSA v.GIB v.MCCC
13 wks
26 wks
source: TSX, IKN calcs
And here’s the same data, but without American Eagle (AE.v):
The 2024 Copper Basket after 26 weeks
WITHOUT AMERICAN EAGLE (AE.v)
%8.25
%6.82
%1.31 %0.21 %1.01
%2.4
%3.5- %5.7-
%2.12- %4.12- %6.12-
%4.72-
%9.25- %2.85-
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
v.UCE ot.YDF ot.XEGN ot.IRAM v.EDLA v.UCCQ v.OCO ot.SLS v.AL v.ROC v.KDK ot.UCSA v.GIB v.MCCC
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution 25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
13 wks
26 wks
source: TSX, IKN calcs
There are clear winners and losers so far, with American Eagle (AE.v) way out in front but
notably, that lead got cut duting Q2. The biggest winner of the last quarter is Element 29
(ECU.v) and while some of that rebound is deserved, a lot of it has come on no news and thin
volume so as welcome as it is (and I’m rooting for this company, good people doing thing the
right way), it needs to deliver real news at some point to consolidate the recovery. Aside those
two, just five others are still in the green and of those, Faraday Copper (FDY.to) is the only real
stand-out in recent trading. Meanwhile, note how all the stocks now in the red lost more ground
in Q2, from the reversals green-to-red seen in Oroco (OCO.v), Solaris (SLS.to) and Kodiak
(KDK.v), to the continued weakness in the biggest losers so far, Hercules and C3. I still hold out
hope that BIG.v can deliver a good hole from its current program and recover some of those
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs

losses, on the other hand C3 looks broken beyonds all repair at this point. Not a massive
surprise and we feature a cross section of good, bad and ugly in this basket deliberately.
With the six month snapshot done we move to
the recent action in copper the metal, which
was mostly to the downside last week but aside
Monday, it would be a stretch to call it bad. No
trading ranges were broken in this chart (right)
and it would take very little to see prices move
back above U$4.50/lb this week, thin North
American trading notwithstanding.
The commentariat was reduced to using the
same reasoning as the last couple of weeks and
trying to package them in different words.
Here, for example, is one Natalie Scott-Gray as
quoted by Reuters (4):
“Markets have shifted their view to the reality of
the fundamentals, and the reality is that demand is weak, especially in China. Meanwhile, if we look
to ex-China, the health of manufacturing remains clouded, U.S. is performing better, but Europe
remains in manufacturing recession,” said StoneX analyst Natalie Scott-Gray.
We knew that and as our parade of headlines last week demonstrated (not doing that again), it’s all
about demand, China and demand with the restricted supply narrative of early year consigned to
the past…until the next price leg-up.
We knew that. However, it allows us to make this week’s more important observation as it’s
notable how copper has managed to hold its line at/around U$4.40/lb in the face of wall-to-wall
negative narrative the last couple of months. Let’s discount the “Trafi Spike” (or the Jeff Currie
blowoff top if you prefer…heh heh) and assume copper topped on fundamental reasons at
around U$4.80/lb. That’s a correction of less than 10% to this weekend, and frankly, if you’d
offered me U$4.40/lb as an average for 2024 at the start of the year I would have snapped
your hand off, but you’d never guess it from the tone of trade reports on copper. That’s not
ignoring the data either, quite the contrary in fact:
 We’re clear about the recent downturn in the Chinese housing sector and how
the PBOC has dropped rates and made credit terms easier in an attempt to
stimulate home sales over there.
 We get the reported demand slump and while it’s less dramatic than it’s
painted by media, it exists all roight
 We know about the abnormally high SHFE inventory for the time of year
 We’ve noted the rumours of 100kmt copper being exported from China are
now showing concrete evidence, as LME warehouses in Asia region received
large tonnage deliveries
The important takeaway is the copper has held onto its price well despite the negative
newsflow and that’s a classic turn point signal for any commodity, not just this one.
Next up, we move to one of the subjects in that list and the timely update of our long-term
inventory tracker charts:
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
11
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco

Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
12
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
The sum of parts show that the stubbornly high levels of SHFE stocks this year and the new
influx of tonnages into LME Asia (more on those below) have pushed overall stocks to the
highest levels since 2018, those three anomalous Covid months in 2020 notwithstanding. The
second chart shows that even though SHFE stocks remain high, the percentage total is rolling
over on its normal annual schedule as LME starts to grow again. However, it’s perhaps the
Comex evolution that’s most interesting this time, despite it being very much the third of three
in the world’s official systems. If we separate that data and present it as a standalone chart
below), we see that stocks are now at their lowest level for many years and in fact, the
8,206mt held by Comex is the lowest level recorded on the above chart, 14 years and counting.
Comex copper stocks, 2021 to date
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
12
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef ram rpa yam
mt Cu
source: Comex
Sit that fact next to the current glut (or apparent glut) in Asia and you’re left with a strange
dichotomy in the copper sector; Asia as the metal’s biggest market with a near-term surfeit,
North America (and to a large extent Europe) scrambling to cover supply, as seen when Trafi
got into its delivery problem and notably got a copper container ship to change course on its
Pacific Ocean run.
And with the long-term numbers as out backdrop, we now more to the weekly pulse check of
world copper inventories, data as normal from Cochilco:
 The aggregate of the three official world’s copper inventory sytems went up by 11,494
metric tonnes (mt) on the week, closing at 507,852mt.
 For the third week running the closely watched SHFE copper inventories saw a modest
drop, this time down 3,389mt to close at 319,521mt. Three weeks of small drops is
enough to be able to put the 2024 in the past, but as the charts below show it’s still
high for the time of year and at some point, we’re going to need a series of five-figure
depletions to put SHFE back on its normal track.
 A second big add to LME stock in as many weeks, with 14,940mt added to the
31,250mt we noted the week before last to bring the grand total to 180,125mt. Once
again it was all the Asia all the time, with 9,100mt of that total going to LME Taiwan
warehouses and 5,450mt to South Korea and 11,100mt into Taiwan. Put those two
weeks together and LME has added over 46,000mt to its stocks, which goes a long way
to confirming that rumoours 100kmt copper export made by China that circulated at the
start of June.
 The Comex dropped just 67mt on the week, but the thing is that it doesn’t have much
more to offer the world with just 8,206mt under roof. We mentioned it above and we’ll

do so here again, that number is a new decade long record low for Comex copper
stocks and that speaks to the dearth of tonnage available in North America today.
The dedicated SHFE charts continue the same story, with the first chart probably the most
informative. SHFE stocks have been 290kmt or above for 15 straight weeks and have turned
the normal stock spike into a new plateau in 2024.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 0202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF ht91
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
This should be far more bearish than it seems to be for the copper price, which suggests there
are enough players in this market who still look beyond the immediate situation and toward the
well-document ed supplym deficit coming down the pipeline.
Now for notes on some of our basket stocks:
Hercules Metals (BIG.v): Two things to say about BIG.v this week. First, the name change is
done and it’s now officially Hercules Metals (5), instead
of Hercules Silver. That makes sense considering the
way the Hercules project has developed, Barrick didn’t
jump on board for its silver target. Second, last week’s
trading was mostly soft, but the five day chart also
shows how new money had to pay up (early Monday,
early Thursday) and also the way a modest case of end
quarter window dressing had no problem in doing its
job on low volume. That’s a price chart that speaks fo a
lack of sellers and that’s not a bad thing, the
speculators now on board look willing to give BIG the
time it requires to deliver on its assays, aquifer or not.
American Eagle (AE.v): We know assays are due “soon” and we know there’s plenty of
anticipation, we also know the 60c line is being defended successfully and that’s where this
stock will either launch or drop from when the next round of results are known. If you want to

be on through the results, don’t sweat the
pennies and buy some at or around this
number. Personally, I’m going to wait it out as
ARIC looks a better risk/reward sidebet now.
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): On the subject
of window dressing, the selling in SLS got fairly
steep on Friday morning and drove the price
down to C$3.71 before the cosmetics were
applied.
The Producer Basket
After 26 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 13.13% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 48.26 41.87 1.2%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 32.57 65.40 19.2%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 29.29 16.68 -7.8%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 22.77 118.52 7.0%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 7.25 19.88 21.7%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 3.47 14.59 15.4%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.00 4.85 0.8%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 2.99 14.79 14.0%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.44 7.84 21.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.20 8.03 37.7%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 13.13%
We also do the half year review here in The Producer Basket, but first we note the weekly
moves in our ten charges and aside the two silvery stocks, things among the biggers caps were
far less painful than among the juniors and as a group the Tier One/Two producers did a better
job of following gold (GLD managed to post a 0.1% gain on the week, to the surprise of many).
We saw four winners on the week (GOLD, AEM, FNV, WDOFF) and six losers (NEM, PAAS,
LUGDF, HL, EGO, DPMLF) and of all those, only two stocks moved more than 2%. Those were
the silver-exposed Hecla (HL down 6.2%) and Pan American (PAAS down 2.2%). Our sample
includes a higher weighting of more leveraged stocks than the GDX, so it wasn’t a surprise to
see the benchmark perform slightly better than our picks on the week and at the half way point
of 2024 we’re 3.71% and all things considered, in a good place.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
30% comparative to GDX control
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
14
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2.0%
ikn 1.0%
gdx control 0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
source: IKN calcs -8.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Now for the half year snapshot and for that, we begin with the visual:
The 2024 Producer Basket components after 26 weeks
15
%7.73
%9.12 %7.12
%2.91
%4.51 %0.41
%0.7
%2.1 %8.0 %8.7-
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
FFODW FLMPD SAAP MEA FDGUL OGE VNF MEN LH DLOG
13 weeks
26 weeks
source: NYSE: IKN calcs
No doubt about the winner in the first half of 2024, Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF) and to
frame its out-performance, a reminder of how it has beaten this desk’s expectations. Here’s
part of the write-up from the start of the year while explaining why we were giving WDO
another chance after a largely flat 2023:
“I suspect the “market perform at best” performance will continue in 1q24, but as from mid-year
and as long as the company delivers on its new timeline to get Kiena fully operational by the start
of Q3, WDO can show us the delayed re-rate. It’s also an obvious buyout target due to location
and having just two medium-sized but profitable mines, at some point its board will get the offer it
cannot refuse and that may be this coming year.”
As the chart (right) shows, it didn’t turn out that way
because WDO started out-performing the median
(GDX shown) in January and hasn’t let up since then.
On reflection, my mistake was underestimating the
corporate communication job done by the company
and for that, we should applaud the (fairly) new CEO
Andrea Bath. Under her tenure, WDO has done well to
prime the market for the Kiena production surge to
come and as a result, a lot of the Kiena upside is
already in the price. What’s left is to see whether the
Kiena Deeps ore starts showing higher head grade
than the geological assay grade, as its nuggety
mineralization was given an aggressive top cut. Once
full production starts, we’ll watch those average grade numbers very closely.
However, the biggest winner in Q2 isn’t Wesdome,
instead the garlands go to Pan American Silver (PAAS)
and its achievement of moving up 29.4% in the
quarter. As this comparative chart of PAAS versus silver
(SLV proxy) shows, that’s as much to do with timing as
overall performance as PAAS was lagging in Q1, but
quickly played catch-up in the first weeks of Q2.
Further down the field, another big Q2 winner is
Newmont (NEM), which improved by 14.6% in 2q24
and has managed to get back in the green after four
quarters of abject under-performance in 2023 and early
2024. That leaves the wooden spoon firmly in the hands of Barrick (GOLD), which only
managed to add 0.2% in Q2 despite gold’s big run and peers improving all around it. Now

valued significantly less than Agnico (AEM) and looking over its shoulder as Franco-Nevada and
Wheaton (WPM) breathe down its neck, Barrick continues to be a carbuncle on the sector.
The TinyCaps List
After 26 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 44.98% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 248.82 28.61 0.115 76.9%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 85.319 42.66 0.50 270.4%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 32.63 0.305 79.4%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 21.77 0.145 -19.4%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 5.32 0.06 -40.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 6.43 0.09 20.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 9.98 0.14 7.7%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 30.26 0.62 -17.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 39.87 0.14 55.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 16.57 0.14 16.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 44.98%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps basket average took a right whacking last week, the market backdrop we
mentioned in the opening comments of Stocks to
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
Follow was magnified 10c among the tinycap players. 100%
90%
When metals don’t make headlines, volumes are low
80%
and there are no buyers to support a price, it doesn’t 70%
60%
take much to drop these stocks by meaningful
50%
percentages and start the waterfalls flowing, selling 40%
30%
into no bids does not end well for market caps. Just
20%
one of our ten registered a week-over-week gain 10%
0%
(EDG.v) and two others remained unchanged (BAY.v,
STS.v), that leaves seven losers and of those, the
“least worst” was the 5.3% lost by Latin Metals
(LMS.v). The biggest drop came from Kirkland LDC
(KLDC.v down 14.3%) but Awalé Resources (ARIC.v down 13.8%), Palamina Corp (PA.v down
12.5%), Viva Gold (VAU.v down 12.5%) and Surge Copper (SURG.v down 9.7%) weren’t far
behind as the first half closed with a whimper.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): Back in early May, we mused on SURG being a potential trade in
the 12c to 15c range, trading the channel and all that, just days before it shot off like a scalded
cat and peaked over 20c. It looked as though the train had left the station without me but, the
combo of copper’s soft quarter end and market ennui has seen SURG come back to its field. At
14.5c this weekend it’s still not my idea of a bargain buy, but if 12c shows it might be in play.
16
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): While KDLC went down by slightly more in percentage terms, be
in no doubt that this was the real biggest loser from our ten stocks this week. The good Lord
knows I’m no fan of TA and charting, but there’s no doubt that it has its moments and we’ve
noted the stubborn resistence put up by the 60c line in ARIC on previous occasions so, when
that got snapped on Monday morning…
…down it went. And though I’ve said it before while
deciding to stick with Orecap (OCI.v) as my limited and
backstopped exposure to Odienné, this time it’s serious and
the stock has moved into a very buyable price range IF
(capslock, bold type, underscored) you can handle the
obvious risk involved in putting yourself in front of a drill
play before the assays arrive. The YTD chart (right) has that
big gap and TA fans often insist those have to fill sooner or
later (personally I think that’s one of the more voodoo
charty things and easy to ignore), so perhaps keep that in
mind.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
The quiet expansion of Chile’s mining industry in 2024
It’s become rather fashionable to put the boot into Chile’s mining industry since Gabriel Boric
came to power and at roughly the same time, the structural deficiencies at the State-run copper
company Codelco that had been dragging on for years became all-too apparent in its declining
17

production numbers. There is truth in both of those, of course. For one, we witnessed first hand
how the incoming Boric government put ideology over reason in its first months by reaching for
whatever excuse to delay, suspend or refuse key permits for mining operations and projects
(Rio2 Fenix a prime example, Anglo’s Los Bronces expansion a far bigger $3Bn another good
one). For another, a combination of a lack of investment at big mines such as El Teniente,
design errors at the Chuquicamata
underground expansion and generalized Chile: Copper production per year, 1990 to 2024(e)
chronic inefficiencies inside Codelco have
pulled down production numbers and left was
was until recently the world’s biggest single
copper producing company defenceless against
the drop in overall copper grades at its working
assets. But correlation is not necessarily
causation, Codelco’s issues date back to well
before Boric’s arrival and to the credit of the
current government, once the ideology had
been knocked out of them by a sharp dose of
reality they’ve quietly worked in favour of
mining in Chile, rather than against it.
That’s now beginning to show. The latest country macro producer indices were released by the
Chilean stats office INE last week (6) and a sub-sector of the data is mining production. This
chart shows the annualized index for mining production since 2018 (it goes back to 1991, we
don’t’ bother you with all that) and shows that for the first five months of 2024, even before
copper went on its price run, the Chilean mining sector has been in expansion for the first
prolonged period since the post-Covid burst in 2020.
20 Chile: Mining Production Index, 2018 to date
15
10
5
0
-5
source: INE
-10
en
e-1
m
8 ay-1 8
s
ep-1 8
e n
e-1
m
9 ay-1 9
s
ep-1 9
e n
e-2
m
0 ay-2 0
s
ep-2 0
e n
e-2
m
1 ay-2 1
s
ep-2 1
e n
e-2
m
2 ay-2 2
s
ep-2 2
e n
e-2
m
3 ay-2 3
s
ep-2 3
e n
e-2
m
4 ay-2 4
That’s not a bad thing at all and underscores this desk’s clearly stated position about Chile: It
has been, is and will continue to be the best place to go mining in Latin America, period.
Argentina: Regarding RIGI and passages of winter
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this sun of York;
And all the clouds that lour'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.
Now are our brows bound with victorious wreaths;
Our bruised arms hung up for monuments;
Our stern alarums changed to merry meetings,
Our dreadful marches to delightful measures.
Richard II, Act 1, Sc1
The Milei government got its official win last week when the Ley Bases law bill passed the lower
house without any real questioning or opposition. That was as expected and in fact most
members of parliament weren’t there to vote, in an agreement made by all sides before the
debate began. This means the RIGI law to promote FDI is about to become law and that’s good
news for large-scale mining projects in the country, which will now benefit from the laundry list
18
226,1 276,1 237,1 807,1 437,1 876,1 885,1 816,1 816,1 644,1 523,1 193,1
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000 800
600
400
200
0
3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 tse4202
MMT Cu
source: Cochilco

of benefits we’ve noted previously (mainly tax discounts and stability, as well as zero levies on
capital imports and product exports).
In other news, last week saw the government beancounter agency INDEC publish its latest
macro numbers and it’s worth digesting them, as they provide counterpoint to the message
being fed to the English speaking world. President Milei’s brand of libertarian free market and
vehemently anti-Socialist (capital S) rhetoric has made him a market darling, so you tend to get
all the good news without the flipside reported in the English language, e.g. plenty of talk
recently about the neutral balance of payments in Argentina for the first time since forever, the
quick drop in inflation levels and even most recently “zero inflation” in Argentina in May 2024
(which is a stretch if you bother to read the data, but that’s another story). But there’s an
obvious flip side to the story, that’s the recession now biting the country hard and we see that
in the two INDEC publications last week covering GDP in 1q24 and the latest unemployment
data (7) (8). First GDP and here’s a screenshot from the top of the linked PDF:
That says GDP (PIB in Spanish) dropped by 5.1% in 1q24 compared to the same quarter of
2023 and whichever way you slice it, that’s heavy. We also see that private consumption
dropped by 6.7%, investment by 23.4% and while exports grew in Peso terms (as you’d expect,
what with the currency’s drop), imports fell off a cliff in the same period as customers dried up.
That’s how inflation dies, as velocity of money decelerates.
The other document is the country’s Q1 employment report (we get unofficial monthly data
snapshots along the way, but the official reports are quarterly) and here’s a representative
chart (of many) from the report:
The overall unemployment rate has gone from 5.7% to 7.7%, a serious uptick but I chose this
chart because it also shows some of the key breakdowns of the data, as 1.1% of that change is
from people who lost their jobs within the last three months and there’s no respite for the
longer-term unemployed, suggesting there’s big issues about finding a replacement job once
you’re laid off. Again, this shouldn’t be that much of a surprise when a country that’s been run
using massive public sector subsidies turns off the government spigot and tells companies to
sink or swim; a lot immediately sink. However, it’s necessary to understand just where these
better inflation and macro BOP data are coming from, not simply see the good and assume the
best.
19

From the start of the Milei experiment, this desk has been clear-eyed about the risk. He and his
government never hid the fact that there would be a tough period to live through before things
got better, the risk is more about how long that recession lasts. So be clear, the Q1 numbers
for GDP will not improve in Q2. The Q1 unemployment levels will only get worse in Q2. That’s
inevitable and we covered this subject ad infinitum in November and December last year
around the vote that brought Javier Milei to power. For example, here’s the end of the note in
IKN761 dated December 17th, just after the new government had taken the Peso off its
currency peg:
“This is good news for any business importing dollars into the country, though obviously it’s bad or
even very bad news for the populace. If you’re a rich enough Argentine to have saved in USD over
the last few months or years you’re also doing well, but most people are out there earning in Pesos
paying their car loans and mortgages in US Dollars. Those have just been hit hard and when the
subsidies start coming off the cost of domestic electricity, gas etc things will get even tougher. Milei
knows his policies will cause a deep recession in the country and is banking on it being and brief
trough before the country starts to recover. Don’t bet on that one.”
That hasn’t changed. We noted three weeks ago that while still polliong 47.6% approval, Milei’s
disapproval rating surpassed the number who support him in Argentina for the first time since
he took office. He’s enjoyed a decent honeymoon period so far and even if his popularity slips
further, he has time before the real pitchforks moment arrives and Argentina starts serious
protests against his government. There is a time limit to the country’s patience, there is a
countdown going on and there’s also a well-worn political saying in the country that dates back
to the 1980’s and the Alfonsin government, “Hay que pasar el invierno”, “you have to get
through the winter” and as that’s the current season in the Southern hemisphere, it’s as apt in
2024 as it was 40 years ago. Or long story short, as far as the government of Argentina is
concerned the FDI incentivized by RIGI cannot arrive too soon.
Bolivia: Another day another attempt coup d’etat
We already had enough cloth to cut on Bolivia for another update today on the precarious and
volatile political backdrop in the country by Tuesday, but come Wednesday our small and
landlocked focus country briefly made international news. It’s not as if we haven’t warned about
the deterioration in Bolivia these last few weeks. Here are a few quotes from recent editions,
unfairly edited to make me look smarter than I am:
IKN780 April 28th: "Bolivia is increasingly unstable"
IKN786 June 9th "This desk has been keeping an eye on the political powder keg that is
Bolivia without making weekly reports, because it’s not directly about mining (yet)..."
IKN787 June 16th "...the growing political crisis in Bolivia..."
IKN788 June 23rd: "Avoid Ecuador. And Colombia. And Bolivia. Mexico is looking cheap,
though."
Now for sure we try to keep it as close to mining as possible and in this case, when straying
into pure politics have focused mostly on the resurgence of Evo Morales and what that implies
to country stability, but the general thrust of “Bolivia Is Very Unstable” was confirmed in spades
last week by the Bolivia’s Armed Forces, one General Juan Jose Zúñiga.
The fun started on Monday General Zuñiga made his opposition to Evo Morales crystal clear in
what can generously be called “a controlled outburst of rage” when during prime time evening
TV interview, he said the rules shouldn’t be changed to allow Morales’s candidature and the
current Supreme Court position should be left unchanged (there are rumours a second ruling or
“new interpretation” are in the pipeline). That’s bad enough for a person who by Bolivian law
must remain politically neutral in any public declarations, but he then caused a scandal by
saying that if Morales attempted to take power again the military would rise up and stop him.
Why exactly Zuñiga went that far is up for debate, he may have got carried away by the
moment and the interview, but he must have known he was aksing for trouble.
20

The next day, Tuesday, President Arce announced Zuñiga’s forced retirement, i.e. he was fired.
On the one hand, an impressive move because as noted in several previous editions, Arce has
been battling directly against Evo Morales and his attempts to get back on the ballot. Arce could
have let the matter pass, what with Zuñiga aiming at his MAS Party political enemy, but instead
he took the Presidential decision partly due to it being the right thing to do and partly because
if he hadn’t, the increasingly vociferous Evo Morales support would have accused Arce of
supporting illegal threats.
That was already enough for this segment on Bolivia, but Wednesday brought the crazy on.
Around 9am in La Paz, rumours began circulating of an insurrection in the armed forces and
then around midday, General Zuñiga appeared in the square outside the Presidential Palace in
La Paz with armed soldiers from his barracks of residence (close to the city centre), declared
the armed forces had had enough of being ordered around by a failed government. He said he
was taking over and would form a new government of ministers, then proceeded to use an
armoured personnel carrier to break down the main vehicle entrance door to the palace and
stormed the building. Then came a face-off with government officials led by President Arce, in
which he was given a direct order to stand down and refused. At this point, officers
accompanying Zuñiga slowly realized they’d been brought along under false pretenses by their
boss and enough of them affirmed their allegiance to the elected Head of State (i.e. Arce) to
make the difference. Zuñiga was arrested and the army units quickly withdrew back to their
barracks, while at the same time government supporter began to fill the square and took
popular control. And that was that, aside the minor details such as the way Zuñiga was stripped
of all powers immediately and paraded for the cameras on Thursday morning, at which point he
claimed his actions had been a fake coup orchestrated by Arce. Another 10 (or so, unconfirmed
numbers) army officials were also arrested in connection with the uprising on Wednesday
evening, with a new commander of the armed forces and other high ranks sworn in, all making
very public pledges of loyalty to the current government.
The crazy continued Thursday, as a theory Zuñiga had been set up by President Arce and that
the President had organized an “AutoCoup” in order to put on a show for the cameras and
boost his popularity began to get more attention. Though rather conspiratorial, it makes sense
of what would otherwise be a strange excuse for a coup with odd details.
For starters, Zuñiga claims he met with Arce personally, who said that “something had to be
done” about the rise in popularity of Evo Morales and his moves to gain the Presidential
nomination for the MAS party in next year’s elections. Then the next day, Zuñiga made his TV
appearance that included the unusually strong and political statements that got him fired the
next day. It was extremely odd to see a General in uniform make such stridently political
comments, saying things he must have known would get him into hot water. However, it makes
more sense if it was part of a prepared theatre with Arce. Then there were details of
Wednesday’s “coup” that were unlike any other attempted in the country (and they’ve seen
plenty over the years). For one, targeting the Presidential Palace was weird as the building has
no official role and is little more than the home residence of the President. A coup worth its salt
would aim its efforts at the country’s parliament building, where the active political power is
held. Next, the “attacking units” were very small in number and the whole thing went down at
midday, when any self-respecting coup attempt in South America always goes down in the wee
small hours. That’s even more pertinent in La Paz, a MAS Party stronghold that would get pro-
Arce/anti-coup public onto the streets in minutes. There’s also the near total lack of
coordination behind Zuñiga, the person who was, until Wednesday at least, still in charge of the
entirety of Bolivia’s armed forces and an ostensible ally of Arce’s. That’s another strange piece
in the puzzle because if Zuñiga were leading a real coup, he would surely have brought more
than a couple of units into the country’s capital city (and yes, I know about Sucre). There are
other details too, such as the way Arce called a press conference within minutes and just
happened to have the army personnel on hand to swear in as the new heads of the armed
forces. The presser too, which you really had to watch to get the feel but seemed very staged,
with an audience of faithful followers chanting slogans in favour of Arce and of democracy.
21

Sure enough, Evo Morales soon picked up on this thought. By Friday he was questioning the
validity of what went at a presser, saying “What kind of Coup is it without injured and dead?”,
then by Sunday he was openly challenging what had happened, saying the whole thing was a
farce and Arce was a liar and a deceiver who had staged and “auto-Coup” to gain popular
support in a cheap and underhanded way. Evo also predicted that the apparent ringleader
Zuñiga would be out of jail within six months. That’s how things stand this weekend and while
I’m loathe to buy into the average conspiracy theory, I have to say that this one explains a
whole list of oddities and if it’s found to be true, could spell the end of Arce as President (and
usher in the new Evo era more easily). However and most importantly, what last week
demonstrated in no uncertain terms is that Bolivia today is highly unstable and should be
avoided at all costs by FDI, be that mining or any other type. And don’t say you weren’t
warned.
Peru: Tia Maria back in the headlines
The talk about the reactivation of the Tia Maria copper project in the Islay coastal zone of
Arequipa region, South Peru, has been gathering pace all year but this weekend, owners
Southern Copper (SCCO) in an intneral memo (10) said that it was officially re-starting activities
at the project as from this Monday, July 1st. Both it and the government have stated that the
social conditions have improved and the project has all its necessary permits in place for
development and due to this, would begin work and prepare the gorund for the start of capex
work.
All this must come as quite a surprise to the locals around the project who to this day continue
to strongly oppose the project. What the company and the government are banking on is
national support for Tia Maria, rather than any local social license, along with the government’s
recent push to criminally charge and even jail the leaders of local opposition groups. At least
one is now behind bars and several have been found guilty in absentia, with jail terms awaiting
them when they show their faces.
However, what has not changed is the strong opposition to the project and that’s seen in
declarations made to the local press. The anti-Tia Maria groups has penciled in July 19th as a
protest day against the SCCO (11) plans but with this week’s announcement, those protests are
likely to be brought forward. This issue is now an accident waiting to happen and it’s not
difficult to imagine this increasingly authoritarian national government sending in the shock
Market Watching
Testing myself on 35 exploration stage copper companies (Part Three)
We’re now six weeks in an the end of the first full month of thi copper exploreco league table
experiment that will run one per month over the course of 2024. By way of a reminder before
we get to the updated table, we’re monitoring the price action in the copper exploreco sector
for the rest of the year in order to spot springers, winners and what type of stock does best in
the new environment for copper. The league table has 35 juniors with projects, all of them
copper targets and most of them in The Americas, be that North, Central or South. The rules:
 We start with the share prices as at May 17th (recent market top)
 We take a snapshot price reading at the end of each month and report in that
weekend’s edition (e.g. today)
 We calculate the percentage change since May 17th
 We put the 35 stocks in league table order, with the best performers at the top
However, before the game started I ranked the companies and projects, according to my wholly
subjectiove opinion of what they have to offer. Please see IKN783 for the stocks in colour
grouping, (with three added) but by way of a reminder, here’s how I’m rating them as
prospective Value propositions:
22

The colour code
Big Star Green
Star Blue
Neutral Cream
Dog Orange
Big Dog Red
Now for the updated table, in which they are ranked in order of percentage gain or loss since
IKN783. At the start of the month and the last update in IKN785 dated June 2nd, there were 12
of the 35 in positive territory. That’s down to just seven now:
Putting myself to the test on 35 copper juniors
End June %
Rank Company Ticker Project Proj. Quality PPS May 17th IKN Value Score change
1 Element 29 ECU.v FdC/Elida 4 0.16 4 71.9
2 Regulus Res REG.v AntaKori 7 1.72 4 22.7
3 Panoro Min PML.v Cotabambas 3 0.12 2 20.8
4 Pampa Metals PM.cse Piuquenes 5 0.25 6 12.0
5 Trilogy Met TMQ.to UKMP 4 0.65 2 7.7
6 Faraday Cop FDY.to Copper Creek 7 0.80 6 1.3
7 Northern Dyn NDM.to Pebble 2 0.415 2 1.2
8 Cordoba Min CDB.v Alacran 3 0.47 2 -2.1
9 SolGold SOLG.to Cascabel 5 0.155 5 -3.2
10 Filo Corp FIL.to Filo 10 26.66 7 -5.9
11 Hot Chili HCH.v Costa Fuego 5 0.97 5 -7.2
12 Marimaca MARI.to Marimaca 7 4.15 7 -7.5
13 Libero LBC.v Mocoa 4 0.395 2 -8.9
14 Los Andes LA.v Vizcachitas 5 10.40 3 -10.6
15 Atex Res ATX.v Valeriano 5 1.41 3 -10.6
16 American Eagle AE.v NAK 8 0.74 7 -14.9
17 Camino Min COR.v Chapitos 3 0.065 2 -15.4
18 Alta Copper ATCU.to Cañariaco 3 0.71 1 -15.5
19 QC Copper QCCU.v Opemiska 5 0.15 6 -16.7
20 Kutcho KC.v Kutcho 2 0.20 2 -17.5
21 Aldebaran ALDE.v Altar 6 1.20 6 -18.3
22 NGEx Min NGEX.to Helados 7 9.98 5 -18.8
23 Pan Global PGZ.v Escacena 5 0.19 8 -21.1
24 Oroco OCO.v Santo Tomas 4 0.455 4 -22.0
25 Arizona Son ASCU.to Cactus etc 7 1.65 4 -23.0
26 Kodiak KDK.v MDN 3 0.60 3 -24.2
27 Western Cop WRN.to Casino 5 2.09 7 -25.4
28 Sendero Res SEND.v Peñas Negras 5 0.095 4 -26.3
29 Chakana PERU.v Soledad 3 0.10 3 -26.3
30 Hercules BIG.v Hercules 7 0.89 6 -27.0
31 Solaris Res SLS.to Warintza 5 5.43 3 -29.7
32 Copper Fox CUU.v Schaft Creek 2 0.42 2 -31.0
33 Surge Copper SURG.v Berg/Ootsa 4 0.22 4 -36.4
34 C3 Metals CCCM.v Jamaica 3 0.41 2 -37.8
35 World Cop WCU.v Escalones 2 0.305 1 -45.9
source: TSX/V data, IKN calculations
Quite a few of what I condier to be dog stocks with mediocre projects are congregating at the
top of the list (e.g. Panoro, Trilogy, Northern Dynasty) and only one of the 35 is a true springer
so far, that’s Element 29 (ECU.v) and we discuss its case above in the Copper Basket. As for the
losers, the only surprise for me so far is the depths at which Hercules Metals (BIG.v) finds itself.
It’s been a rough six or seven weeks for copper stocks and especially the juniors, so we’re not
going to read too much ito the table yet. Another month’s worth of data and it should start
showing some clearer patterns and provide a guide to what type of exploreco gives the biggest
bang per buck in today’s copper environment.
23

Conclusion
IKN789 is done, we end with just a couple of bullet points:
 Still bullish silver and if U$29/oz isn’t enough for you, hard luck. We’re about to see the
fruits of the rise in the metals prices in the top line revenues of mining operators and
that will make a difference.
 Still bullish copper and the negative newflow should be pushing the price down further.
The fact that it’s not is a signal of better times ahead.
 Not the longest or most in-depth edition this week. So be it.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Best wishes, Mark.
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/schedule-for-week-of-june-30-2024.html
(2) http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/06/26/2904409/0/en/Amerigo-Provides-Update-Following-Heavy-
Rains-in-Chile.html
(3) https://redpineexp.com/red-pine-intercepts-significant-mineralization-at-the-wawa-gold-project-including-3-10-g-t-
gold-over-16-61-m-including-40-20-g-t-gold-over-1-00-m/
(4) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/london-copper-set-for-first-monthly-fall-in-four/
(5) https://www.ine.gob.cl/estadisticas/economia/mineria/produccion-minera
(6)
https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/pib_06_242C4E01A10F.pdf?utm_source=Cenital&utm_campaign=
67a22de0d4-ADM_591&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a38084492c-67a22de0d4-434875405
(7)
https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/mercado_trabajo_eph_1trim2485E02B3519.pdf?utm_source=Cenit
al&utm_campaign=67a22de0d4-ADM_591&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a38084492c-67a22de0d4-434875405
(8) https://larepublica.pe/economia/2024/06/29/tia-maria-grupo-mexico-anuncia-reanudacion-de-operaciones-desde-
este-lunes-1-de-julio-arequipa-1690468
(9) https://diarioelpueblo.com.pe/index.php/2024/05/29/autoridades-de-islay-condiciones-para-ejecucion-de-tia-maria-
no-son-las-adecuadas/
(11) https://alertabolivia.online/?p=654
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
24

Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
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Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
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Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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