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The IKN Weekly
Week 788, June 23rd 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, The crazy begins, Becoming bullish on silver.
Fundamental Analysis: Returning to Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) (ARREF).
Stocks to Follow: Ero Copper (ERO)(ERO.to), Mene (MENE.v), Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v),
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Orecap Invest Corp
(OCI.v), Contango ORE (CTGO), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Solaris Resources (SLS.to), NGEx Resources (NGEX.to),
Hercules Silver (BIG.v), American Eagle (AE.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview.
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Surge Copper (SURG.v), Awalé Resources (ARIC.v), South
Star (STS.v), Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v).
Regional Politics: Guatemala: Further to the Bluestone Resources EIA red light, Mexico:
Sheinbaum’s ministers, Ecuador: The New Yorker of Daniel Noboa, Ecuador: Mining and prior
consultancy.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main event is probably the intro section, an overdue look at the state of the
silver market and the fundamental reasons why I’m getting more bullish about its
prospects. Your author has been either a bear or a sceptic about silver for many years
but in true JM Keynes style, that now has to change.
 As for today’s fundies event, we revisit Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), a company we
have admired for many years as an exemplary junior copper play. Its recent selling has
opened the door to a potential re-buy and today we lay out the numerical case, as well
as announcing that as from next weekend it will replace Ero Copper on the Stocks to
Follow Watch List as the latter has become too expensive for our taste.
 In Regional Politics this week there’s an update of Bluestone’s (BSR.v) Guatemala mess,
more reason to fade the fear about Mexico mining under the upcoming Sheinbaum
administration, but it’s mostly about Ecuador as the Mini Basket Case country does
what it does best.
 Connected to all things Ecuador, the Copper Basket section this week takes another
look at the way Solaris Resources (SLS.to) continues to hoodwink investors about the
true state of community relations at Warintza, this time with evidence of complicity with
sell side brokerage analysts. But that’s not the main part of Copper Basket this week,
we should be more interested in the clear signs that copper is bottoming at this level
and set to resume its bull run. When exactly is difficult, but “soon” is enough for me.
The crazy begins
The week to come in the wonderful world of US macro has no jobs things, no inflation stuff and
no Fed nonsense scheduled. There are second level data due, such as home sales information
and a Q1 GDP revision, but those tend to be less important for the metals sector than for other
1

worlds so we’ll let all that slide. However, there is a Really Big Thing now on deck, something
we referred to at the start of the year in the intro note to IKN764 dated January 7th, entitled
“The main event in 2024”. Here’s an extract from that note:
“…The IKN Weekly will not, repeat NOT, be providing any sort of running commentary on
US politics, the election campaign, the big day on Tuesday November 5th, the inevitable
legal battles that will follow or any of the longer-term ramifications as 2024 becomes
2025. For one thing, you’ll have all the coverage you could possibly want from a million
other places and for another, I have better things to do. By necessity we’ll have to make
mention of its influences on our sector of focus as the year rolls out, but that’s as far as
we go. However, none of us should underestimate the power of the US election on our
lives this year, no matter where you live or what you do, be it the run-up, the event or
the aftermath.”
It’s already been a nutty year in US politics, what with the Republican candidate now convicted
of crimes and about to be sentenced and the incumbent Democrat President doing on-camera
impersonations of a Roomba every other week, we even have a sideshow third party candidate
in the mix, brainworms and all (honestly, you cannot make this stuff up) but up to now it’s been
the prelude, the simple hors d’oeuvre. As from this Wednesday June 26th and the first
Presidential Debate, open season begins and in so many ways, for better or worse, the world’s
news cycle will be dominated by US Presidential election. Take a deep breath ladies and gents,
here we go, bring on the unadulterated, full strength crazy.
Becoming bullish on silver
The Silver Institute 2024 World Silver Survey normally arrives at the end April and this year’s
edition was no exception (1). When it did, your author decided to wait a while before
commenting. As luck would have it, the report dropped just after a bullish move in the metal
from around U$26/oz to U$29/oz and unsurprisingly, the metals commentariat jumped on its
data and used it to bang the bullish drum. Not long after, we saw a modest retreat in silver
prices and the bullish talk faded away, as it tends to do. Your author kept on keeping quiet, as
nobody wants to hear a “if you liked it at 29 you gotta love it at 26!!” from a silver sceptic at
such moments, way too opportunistic. Then came the second leg of the 2024 bull run in silver
and the return of the To Da Moon shouty people. Again, there was no point in jumping on a
bandwagon and I stayed away. However and during that time…
 In March 2024 I bought shares in SilverCrest Metals (SILV)
 In April 2024 I added to the SilverCrest Metals position
 In April 2024 I bought shares in IMPACT Silver (IPT.v)
 In May 2024 I added to the IMPACT Silver position
And most recently, you can add to that list the recent opening in the silver (and gold) spec
trade Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v). That’s not the pattern of someone who’s ambivalent or even
bearish about the prospects for silver and while the first purchase in SILV came before The
Silver Institute (TSI) published its report, the others were at least partially due to the contents
of the 2024 edition. So, with silver having backed off its highs and the hype faded once again
(until the next time, we have a more sober backdrop for thoughts on the macro situation for
silver and what we can take away from the 2024 TSI report.
2

We begin with the data that got the silver community hot under the collar. With 2023
preliminary supply results at 1,010.7 Moz (TSI will retroactively adjust its numbers and the
process can take three or four years) and 2023 demand at 1,195 Moz Ag, then 2024 forecast
supply at 1,003.8 Moz Ag and 2024 forecast demand at 1,219.1Moz Ag, we have a market
that's in clear deficit and arguably, has been that way for four years.
Silver: Annual total supply and demand
1400 (NB: cut down Y-axis)
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
3
8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 e4202
M oz Ag
Total Supply
Total Demand
source: The Silver Institute
This second chart (right) does the subtraction and shows the same data, with 2024 expected to
show a deficit of 215.3 Moz Ag. That, according to
Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations and any silverbug
you care to quote, is bullish for metals prices.
The other TSI dataset most quoted by the silverbugs
in April and May was the rise in demand for silver in
photovoltaics. These days that’s mostly the use of
silver paste in solar electricity generation panels and
while there are alternative technologies coming
along (e.g. a small Australian company is doing great
things with copper these days) and manufacturers
have worked out ingenious ways to use less and less
silver in each panel to achieve the same results, the
sector is effectively tied to using silver in its photovoltaic products for the indefinite future and,
with the market expanding rapidly, that means more silver demand. Not only that, but bodies
such as TSI have underestimated the forward demand for silver in photovoltaics and that shows
in this double-feature chart (below). Here you see the TSI annual reported demand for silver in
photovoltaics in the dark columns, but also in the light grey you’re given the estimate in each
TSI report for the following year (e.g. in the 2021 report, TSI expected 105Moz Ag used in the
sector that year but the result, as reported later, came to 113.7Moz).
Silver use in photovoltaics, per annum
1.69 101 501
7.311 721
3.041
1.161
5.391 232 042
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
source: The Silver Institute
gA
zoM
Silver: Supply surplus or deficit
(positive = surplus, negative = deficit)
54.8 40.5
1.3 -4.2
-18.4
-69.4
-95.2
annual TSI forecast
Annual TSI reported result
If you take a moment to consider the chart, you’ll see that even though TSI expected a big
jump in silver usage in photovoltaics in 2023, the result was 32m oz more than even they, a
body catering to and sponsored by the silver mining industry, expected. That 193.5M oz Ag
result for last year has pushed estimated higher for the current year and this time, TSI
forecasts the use of 232M oz silver. For the record, don’t put too much confidence in my very
rough and ready 204Moz silver guesstimate column at the end, it’s there for illustration
4.362-
3.481- 3.512-
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 e4202
M oz Ag
source: Silver Institute, GFMS, IKN ests, IKN calcs

purposes more than anything, what with TSI under-estimating the real number on a regular
basis.
But the point should be made by the 2023 preliminary demand figures. Last year photovoltaic
demand covered a cool 19.1% of apparent market supply, that up from 13.8% in 2022 and the
trend higher is firmly established. If we take the TSI estimates for 2024 as gospel, it would
imply 23.9% of total silver market supply going to photovoltaics and there's every reason to
expect the market to expand further into 2025 and beyond. If you take the time and a few
minutes to peruse Google, it's easy to find analyst reports from sober and reputable houses
predicting 30% of all silver used in this single sector by 2030.
However…however, that’s not the whole story (it never is). While the permabull silverbug gang
was pointing and shouting about the rise in demand for silver in solar panels between 2022 and
2023, they conveniently forgot to mention that overall demand dropped in the same period.
This next chart takes the overall silver demand data and breaks it into three main categories
and while industrial demand grew in 2023 and is forecast to do the same in 2024, we cannot
say the same for the other places that use silver.
Silver: Demand breakdown
337.1
309.3 212.9 155.8 165.9 187.4 284.3 243.1
208.1
260.8 242.6 255.6 270.3 262.9 182.1 222.7 308 258.3
4
1.754
5.984 4.625 2.425 5.325 7.906
3.165
3.885
4.456 9.017
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400 212
200 270.1
0
5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 e4202
Total Industrial M oz Ag
Coins&Bars
Jewelry/Silverware
Source: The Silver Institute, GFMS
It may come as a surprise to your standard HODL
silver stacker, but you cannot divorce the laws of Silver: Jewellery/Silverware & Coin/Bar demand
supply from the laws of demand. Equally, you cannot
cherrypick your chapters of Wealth of Nations
without digesting the entire book and while we can
debate on elasticity and overall dollar values, the
plain and boring fact is that if things go up in price, they become less popular. We see that in the recent
demand for both the Jewelry/Silverware and
Coin/Bar sub-sectors put in a peak in 2022 but have
dropped back, in the case of Jewelry/Silverware to
the levels we saw pre-Covid.
This ten-year chart of the spot price for silver holds clues on this:
8.062 3.903 6.242 9.212 6.552 8.551 3.072 9.561 9.262 4.781 1.281 1.802 7.222 3.482 803 1.733 3.852 1.342 1.072 212
400
350
300
250
200 150 100
50
0
5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 e4202
M Oz Ag
Jewelry/Silverware
Coins&Bars
source: The Silver Institute

This isn’t some sort of silver bashing session, far from it in fact and the set-up for silver prices is
as bullish as you could ask for. After flatlining (relatively) during the ZIRP decade, silver took off
post-Covis and while is may have been quite stomach churning for the silver community at the
time, its back-test to the U$18-U$20/oz long term support level looks very healthy in hindsight.
Then came consolidate at $23-$25 and the most recent chapter in 2024 and the move up to a
3-handle. All fair, but it’s no coincidence to see overall demand peak in 2022 and drop in the
year and a half since then.
Silver: Scrap supply
Another place to spot the supply/demand interplay
is on the supply side, as scrap levels changed
notably pre and post Covid. This chart provides its
own warning about the future and is something the
“no silver left!” brigade that works hard to
cherrypick information need to take into account.
The uptick in scrap has been reasonably modest so
far but one of the reasons silver is promoted as a
means of investment is that it’s fungible, long-
lasting asset you can exchange for hard cash when
so desired.
The TSI 2024 report offers data on the silver inventories that
can cover the apparent supply deficit, here’s a table from
that section (right). The “Identifiable Silver Bullion
Inventories” amounts is far from all the potential above
ground supply, but it does show the buffer currently available
to the financial system. In 2021, TSI identified 1,666.9Moz
Ag inventories, which has dropped to 1,229.9M oz Ag as at
last year. That’s what you’d expect in a structural supply
deficit and indeed, TSI in its write-up addresses this in a
measured and sensible tone.
“There is no doubt that we are in a period of structural deficits for silver. For now, there
remains enough silver inventories to fill these gaps. Reported stocks of the metal,
namely those in London vaults as well as exchange-registered depositories, amounted
to 1.2 billion ounces (around 38,000t) at end-2023 and we understand there remain
bullion inventories held elsewhere. Stockpiles are finite, however, and eventually this
draw-down will create tight physical market conditions and ultimately fuel price rallies.”
Nothing to argue about there, 100% agreement from this desk and notably less polemic than
the drum-banging rhetoric you normally get when silver is the subject. However, those data
also indicate that scrap is a meaningful piece of the puzzle. Consider it this way:
 According to TSI, “Identifiable Silver Bullion Inventories” dropped by 437M oz Ag in the
period 2021 to 2023. In the same period and according to TSI the market supply deficit
totaled 543.2M oz Ag. Where did the other 106m oz come from?
 Or if you prefer, the period 2022 to 2023 saw Identifiable Silver Bullion Inventories drop
by 55.6M oz Ag, but the supply deficit totaled 184.3M oz Ag, again using TSI data.
The point is, if there is identifiable inventory there is also unidentifiable inventory and that
includes the silverware, the scrap, the coins, the in particular the bars bought for investment
and speculation purposes. Not every buyer of a physical silver bullion bar is a dyed in the wool
stacker or HODLer and price dictates this market, just like any other and for every anecdotal
the silver True Believer can offer, there’s another about the people who bought bars in the last
upswing, cursed at them and used them to prop open the garage door when silver’s run ended
a decade ago, forgot about them and have recently remembered they have one, collecting dust
in the corner of the house. That 200oz or 500oz bar of “forgotten wealth” suddenly becomes an
interesting way of paying toward the next vacation or new car with silver at U$30/oz.
5
741 7.541 2.741 7.841 2.841
3.461 7.371 6.871 6.871 9.871
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 e4202
M oz Ag
source: The Silver Institute, GFMS

Bottom line: It’s possible to be bullish silver without being a True Believer, a hardcore HODLer
or the proponent of (let’s be nice) “fringe views on the way the financial world works”. Up to
2024 I sucked my teeth and didn’t get on board the bandwagon, but that changed at the end of
1q24 because in the words of JM Keynes, “When the facts change I change my mind, what do
you do, sir?” Despite my reticence to jump on the photovoltaic bandwagon until now, the
evidence amassing for a true, demand-driven change in the market for silver has become too
obvious to ignore. What’s missing from the mix is a period during which industrial demand
grows at the same time as investment demand and what that needs, quite simply, is higher
prices. Silver is an industrial metal and its growth in usage augurs well for the future, but it’s
also a means of investment (or speculation if you prefer) and if those aspects of demand line
up together, we’re going to see the price run higher. However, we also need to be sensible
about projections. For one thing, a supply deficit in 2024 does not automatically mean higher
prices and we have plenty of evidence for that; 2022 and 2023 were also deficit years and silver
basically flatlined through those years. Also 1) prices are higher already 2) there’s still plenty of
identifiable stocks to make up the difference and there’s also the natural feedback loop of the
scrap market, as the higher silver goes the more sales of physical into the market we’ll see.
All that said, the overall balance is positive for the future of silver, that’s why I’m bullish about
the metal going forward and expect U$30/oz and beyond to become the norm as 2024 closes
out, with better things to come in 2025. This time really is different, be long silver.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Returning to Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) (ARREF)
Today’s main fundies report is dedicated to revisiting a firm favourite of The IKN Weekly, the
excellently run, profitable and solid junior copper producer. We’ve liked the stock for a long
time and that hasn’t changed this year, despite having sold it in January for a modest profit in a
strategic decision to raise capital for other trades, as well as moving into (what I’d thought
would be) better leverage on copper. Despite that sale and the ensuing (slight) regret my
admiration for ARG and the way it goes about doing business remains as strong as ever and the
recent price drop offers an excellent opportunity to get back in (though admittedly, my personal
first step is to put it on the Watch List rather than buy immediately). One good thing about
today’s main fundies note is that the company needs no long intro or biog background, we can
get straight down to brass tacks today. So did I regret selling it in January? A little. Has my
admiration for this company waned in the last six months? Not in the least. Have I been looking
for a reason to return to the stock? Yes. And for the real TL:DR fans in the audience, here’s
why we are re-opening on ARG:
 Well-run company, solid business model, top-class C-suite aligned with shareholders
 Profitable, financially rock solid and with a mill supply that is for all intents and
purposes unlimited.
 Has seen recent price weakness and offers a buying window
 About to bring positive news to market
If you don’t want details, take those four bullet points and skip the next few pages. For the rest
of us, this shouldn’t take too long.
Recent coverage: Our modern history with copper producer (but don’t call it a miner)
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) (ARREF) began in IKN655 dated December 12th 2021, when we
identified it as an undervalued and misunderstood play that had seen insider selling and at that
period the C-suite was under pressure from activist holders. For a while the trade worked
nicely, with copper rising in the period before and during the Russian invasion of Ukraine and
ARG getting its operations act together, as well as ARG delivering on its promises to
stakeholders and securing the executive positions at the annual AGM. Then came the copper
downturn as the Fed started tightening rates to combat inflation (that turned out to be less
transitory than Mr Powell originally thought) but we stuck it out and come 2023, both stock and
the copper market were looking optimistic. Things would have gone better last year, but copper
6

failed to run the way we’d imagined then mid-year, ARG was hit by a weather event and
through no fault of its own, saw extended operational downtime and the need to bring forward
capex spend on infrastructure upgrades.
When 2023 turned to 2024 and copper continued to lag, I made the decision to cut ARG from
the portfolio in IKN766, dated January 21st. That week also saw me pull the trigger on
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), in order to move copper exposure into what I believed would be a
better stock for leverage to copper in 2024, but as things turned out…
…that was a mistake. Not a massive mistake and I haven’t been kicking myself too hard about
moving the ARG cash into MARI (and later other trades, such as Western Copper (WRN.to) and
SilverCrest (SILV), as until copper started its bullish run in late March the decision to sell ARG
and swap some exposure into MARI was doing okay. However, the message of the above chart
is undeniable, the leverage shown by ARG during copper’s run through U$4.00 (and briefly to
$5) caught me unawares and showed my call in January to be plain wrong. ARG topped out at
the “Trafi Spike” for copper at over C$2.00 and along the way, paid another 2x 3c in dividends
to holders.
It is therefore fair to say that in the last couple of months I’ve been watching ARG from the
sidelines, wondering whether it would offer an opportunity to get back in. That brings us to the
last five weeks of market action as ARG has dropped sharply from that top and this weekend is
back at C$1.57, still plenty higher than my C$1.34 exit in January but considering the price for
copper compared to then, that’s not an issue. So with the Watch List copper stock Ero Copper
(ERO.to) (ERO) having run too far to justify its position as a “potential trade” on the Stocks to
Follow list (as well as being too big a market cap to cover in a publication such as The IKN
Weekly) and the current price action for ARG signaling a potential buying window due to strong
news in its near-term future, it wasn’t a difficult decision to return to ARG as from next
weekend, and feature it on the Watch List in the place of ERO.to.
Before we get any further, let’s update on the corporate structure:
Shares out: 165.385m
Options: 11.338m
Warrants: Zero
Fully diluted shares: 176.723m
Current share price: C$1.57
Market Cap: C$259.65m
Approx cash per S/O: 8.3c
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated, USD/CAD forex assumption 0.73x
NB: Please recall that ARG reports in USD and does its business in USD, the only time we see Loonies is in its share
price and market cap. At current forex, the ARG market cap is just under U$190m.
With the structure done, here are the updated balance sheet items for the stock in order to get
the boring stuff out the way quickly and you’ll be unsurprised to learn that after qdding the two
7

quarters’ worth of data to the tracking charts,, not much has changed so far. Assets are still
dominated by its MVC fixed asset operation in Chile, liabilities are low and most of the things
you see there are not part of the day-to-day concerns at ARG.
Here’s how the only thing that really matters on the liabilities ledger has progressed, with little
left to pay off. Indeed, ARG has used its credit to modestly increase cash into 2024.
ARG: Debt profile
23.825.7
9.410.19.4
9.914.217.114.910.79.27.0
7.37.07.5 7.07.6 7.07.510.38.5
8
9.44
9.13
7.54 8.54 2.14 2.14 0.93 7.63 1.23
8.62 8.62
4.32 5.32 0.02 1.02 6.61 7.61 7.21 8.21 4.01 5.01
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
ARG.to: Total Assets
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
U$m
long-term borrowings
current borrowings
source: company data
As for the business end of the assets, cash treasury was hit at an inopportune moment by the
mid 2023 downtime and need to bring forward upgrades to infrastructure.
This drained the cash position and dragged working capital into the negative, but ARG is better
understood as a cash flow vehicle and as long as the money kepts coming in, those debt
obligations weren’t a major issue even when copper stayed obstinantly under U$4.00/lb during
the back end of 2023. Before moving on, it’s worth noting that the working cap position, though
still red, improved notably in its 1q24 financials. We
expect that to improve a whole lot more come the
2q24 numbers, see below for that. The final
balance sheet chart today is share count (right),
which has moved up very slightly in recent quarters
and that’s a different direction to 2022 and early
2023, when ARG made good on its pledge to use
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ARG.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
200
cash&eq Trade/Rec
Inventory other current 180
fixed 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab
ARG.to: Cash and ST
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
$m ARG.to: Working capital
source: company filings
884.11
608.71
565.12
236.42
494.43 209.01
58.6 79.9
806.21
998.4- 27.21- 503.21- 781.4-
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
U$m
source company filings
ARG.to: Shares Out
190
185 (NB: cut down Y-axis)
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

excess treasury to buy back shares. Again, the mid-2023 weather incident and copper prices at
sub-U$4.00/lb Cu prices in 2023 put paid to that, but the recent copper price hike and a return
to more stable operations (recent news notwithstanding, see below) we should expect ARG to
resume buybacks in the near future, perhaps 4q24 onward.
Despite the issues in the last three quarters and that negative working cap position, ARG has
kep on paying its standard 3c Canadian dividend per quarter, implying a 7.6% yield at this
weekend’s share price. That alone is reason to own this stock (and again, those slight pangs of
regret for not owning during the last two 3c payments, it’s a pleasant day when those divis
arrive in the portfolio).
That’s the boring numbers out the way, now for the reasons to like ARG in late June 2024 and
to begin, we consider the recent price action. As noted above, the stock topped out at over
C$2.00 in May and since then it’s been downhill, but recently the selling has accelerated and if
we compare ARG to “the copper complex” (we’re using spot copper, the COPX producers’ ETF
and Ero Copper, the stock ARG will replace in the Stocks to Follow list as from next weekend):
Not difficult to spot the under-performer. That may be due to its negative momentum, but we
also got news out of ARG on June 17th (8), telling us about a new round of bad weather
affecting operations. Here’s the entire NR, as it’s worth a careful read:
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA – June 17, 2024/Amerigo Resources Ltd. (TSX: ARG; OTCQX: ARREF)
(“Amerigo” or the “Company”) is providing an operational update on Minera Valle Central (“MVC”), the
Company’s 100% owned operation located near Rancagua, Chile.
Heavy rains occurred near MVC on Thursday, June 13, and Friday, June 14, 2024, with reported rainfall of 116
mm. The power supply to MVC was unaffected, and MVC is processing fresh tailings normally. The rains
caused water accumulation in the Cauquenes historic tailings deposit, halting the processing of historic tailings.
MVC estimates 408,000 cubic meters of accumulated rainwater have been extracted as of this news release.
The impact on production from the June 13 and 14 rains is estimated at 0.55 million pounds of copper. It would
not warrant changes to MVC’s 2024 production guidance of 62.4 million pounds of copper and 1.2 million
pounds of molybdenum, as actual production outperformed guidance before these rains.
However, current weather forecasts indicate that heavy rains will return to the region during the week of June
17, 2024. We cannot anticipate how forecasted additional rain could impact MVC operations or the ongoing
work to remove accumulated water from Cauquenes. Amerigo will update the market as needed.
“MVC completed building a new water containment dam in Cauquenes in time for the rain season this year,
which provided a critical first line of defense limiting the amount of water accumulated in the deposit. Our team
was also quick to deploy floating pumps to initiate water removal from Cauquenes as soon as safely possible,”
said Aurora Davidson, Amerigo’s President and CEO. “Our preparedness to deal with heavy rain events is
strong and will continue to mitigate potential future operational impacts,” she added.
Unsurprisingly, that has had this desk watching the weather in that zone of Chile carefully and
the good news is (2), the bad stuff seems to have passed over. Yes there were two (or three)
days of heavy rains last week that caused flooding in specific areas and there were photos of
problems in the local media, as well as a football match suspended and intermittent power
outages reported. However, we can class it as “bad weather”, that’s not unusual for the region
at this time of year and it was far from a disaster-level weather event in 2023. Also and as
noted in the ARG NR, the infrastructure improvements put in last year have helped during this
year’s weather event and overall, we may get to hear about some minor interruptions in the
9

week ahead but this time ARG’s issues are nowhere near as bad as they were in 2023 andwe
shouldn’t expect it to affect the year.
The above may (or may not) have opened the window for cheaper shares, but the real reason
to be long ARG in the days to come is its 2q24 financials so here we go with the updated
tracking charts, along with some reasonably conservative forecasts for the current quarter. First
up a check on copper sales out of MVC and if we note the 15.961m lbc Cu shipped during Q1
and the message from the above NR, a production at or around 15m lbs for Q2:
20 ARG.to: Copper sales
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
That would be a modest, but acceptable quarter for ARG (we’re not aiming for the moon here,
but the fun begins when you consider the average price they’re going to book for that copper
this quarter. The chart below left shows the difference between 1q24 (U$3.95/lb) and our
conservative forecast for 2q24 of U$4.50/lb (it could easily come out at U$4.455/lb, I’m
rounding down to try and keep a lid on things). Combined with the assumed sales of 15m lbs
Cu, that comes to gross metal value of U$67.5m for 2q24 (below right):
ARG: Average Cu price for MVC
But that’s not all, as we now have to adjust fair value of settlement receivables as ARG uses a
three month rolling billing method as laid out in its literature. When prices rise as they have
done, it creates a positive adjustment to the
subsequent quarter of revenues that weren’t captures
by the provisional price assumption of the preceding
quarter. In the case of 1q24, the company assumed
an average of U$3.95/lb (and U$3.97/lb in March) but
will be paid for those production months at April, May
and June prices. That means a big positive
adjustment will make it to the ARG books and we
calculate that to be around U$8m. Here right is the
chart that adds this to that. Then come costs and the
El Teniente royalty, worked on a sliding scale of
copper prices,, will be more expensive this quarter.
Other costs should be largely in-line. Finally, we add in the molybdenum by product credit
(below right) that was over U$5m in 1q24 but we pitch at a more conservative U$4m, despite
that metal’s own recent price hike.
80.4 44.4 32.4 23.4 46.4 01.4 05.3 08.3 20.4 08.3 67.3 28.3 59.3 05.4
5
4
3
2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
U$/lb Cu ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
source: Company data/IKN ests
1.85 6.66 0.27 6.27 8.37 7.36 8.65 1.16 8.66 8.25
6.14
5.95 3.16 5.76
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG: Gross Cu and fair value adjustments, per qtr
857.4
768.2-
146.2 216.5 948.7- 677.8- 587.4 473.3
125.3-
804.0- 476.1 205.1
8
90
80
70
60
50
40
30 20
10
0
-10
12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
U$m
Fair value adj
Cu revs
source: company filings

It all adds up to this:
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
11
797.37
904.97
567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 897.66 2.07 846.25 908.25 882.94
630.23
855.14
2.14
3.03 5.95 591.16
4.24
582.16 787.26
129.44
5.76 5.57
5.35
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
U$m
Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
While th3 U$44.921m reported in 1q24 top line revenues was an improved total and allowed
ARG to turn a good profit in the last quarter, this coming quarter promises to be the first real
blowout they’ve enjoyed in quite a while. So once we transfer that revenues total to the P+L
sheet and make standard deductions for COGS and so forth…
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
624.12
616.1 655.3-
738.8
874.31
503.3- 420.2-
200.6
508.7
5.61
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
…we forecast a gross profit of U$16.5m, then…
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr 10.12
74.1- 41.5- 10.1-
44.31
72.3- 3.6- 9.3
84.6
05.41
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
30
25
20
15
10 5
0
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
U$m Transport ARG: Mo credits
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
605.3 267.4 116.5 822.4 683.3 142.2 294.3 149.5
930.8
958.2 85.4 478.3 454.5 4
9
8
7
6
5
4
3 2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

…operating profit of U$14.5m (and an estimated net of U$9m, though that’s never been the
best benchmark to consider ARG and never will be). It’s the operating profit that matters and
there are all sorts of ways to cut and dice the data. Here are the isolated operating profit
columns (below left) and here’s the per-share EPS and operating profit per share, with the
model forecasting 8.8c for Q2. That will do nicely and we’ll finally see a rebound after the sags
in 2022 due to Fed induced low copper prices and 2023 when operations got hit by the
weather. As long as copper stays where it is (or moves higher), there’s every reason to suppose
2q24 will be the first in a series of strongly profitable quarters in the same way ARG returned
quarters in 2020 and 2021.
Personally, the metric as seen in the chart below, its “real world margin” that subtracts DD&A
from operating revenue (its supply of “tailings to process is nigh on unlimited and the plant has
fewer moving parts than most) is the one I like most to gauge what ARG will be able to do with
its quarterly cash flow. The last two quarters have seen a return to positive flows that have
allowed ARG to cover the quarter dividend and replenish the balance sheet, but as from this
coming quarter the improvement will be at another level. The forecast U$20.5m will cover the
standard C$0.03 dividend easily (that’s around U$3.6m), bring working cap back into positive
territory and re-start the share buyback program. On that, it’s worth remembering that ARG
retired 10.9m shares in 2021 when the cash flow was good about that. And once treasury is
solid and the buybacks are in motion, we may eventually see the long-awaited “bonus dividend”
promised by the company since 2021 but up to now, unavailable due to its problems in 2022
(copper price drop) and 2023 (weather event and consequences). We’ve done work on the
potential this bonus/extra/windfall divi (whatever they decide to call it this time) on previous
occasions and the potential for a serious extra dividend if ARG can string together three or four
profitable quarters makes the current price even more attractive.
ARG: The real world margin
12
33.21
97.71 24.02 93.22
79.61
15.22 49.52
95.3 20.0-
57.51
34.81
67.1
1.1-
1.9
52.21
05.02
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
ARG.to: operating profit
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests
The bottom line to all this is simple enough: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) is returning to the
Stocks to Follow list as from next weekend because it’s about to file a strong quarter of financial
results at a time when its share price has retreated from highs. I’m going to be a close watcher
of the stock in the days to come, preferring not to buy straight away and risk catching a falling
knife, instead waiting for the expected improvement in the price of copper and new optimism in
the market for copper producers. But one thing is sure, if I want to make the most of this trade
potential I will need to be on and long by the time ARG reports its quarter, most likely in the
first week of August. A welcome return and all it needs now is a little of my money.
9.4-
3.3-
1.8
4.31
0.61 1.81
6.21
5.71
0.12
5.1-
1.5-
0.1-
4.31
3.3-
3.6-
9.3
5.6
5.41
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
0.14 ARG.to: operating and net earnings per share
$m
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
source: company filings
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2
eps
op profit/share
source: company filings, IKN ests

Stocks to Follow
If not for Contango, it would have been a good week. The Stocks to Follow list took its cue
from the modest rebound in the precious metals space, somehow managed ot add a couple of
winners from the copper deck and the result was a net positive week, with eight winners from
our list of 17 (MAI.v, RIO.v, SILV, PGZ.v, MARI.to, BCM.v, WRN.to, ERO.to, two stocks
unchanged (OCI.v, PAU.cse) and seven losers (CTGO, NCAU.v, ALDE.v, IPT.v, MIRL.cse, RPX.v,
MENE.v). The headcount looks roughly even, but the good news is how most of the winners
were in the top half of the table where my money mostly resides, with the bottom end of
smaller trades and Watch List stocks taking most of the losers. However, there were three
double figure percentage losers in that bunch, headed by Mene Inc (MENE.v down 26.2%) and
followed by Contango ORE (CTGO down another 10.5%) and Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v
down 10.1%).
With the addition of Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) we now have 17 open positions on the list, of
which I own shares in 14 and three are being watched as possible trades. Nine are in the
green, one is unchanged, seven are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.325 54.8% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.495 -38.1% Momentum now building
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$8.23 19.3% Quality Ag/Au, U$12.96 tgt
Pan Global Res PGZ.v BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.17 -10.5% 3 adds,big position,cheap Cu
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$4.20 37.7% Quality Cu developer
Bear Creek Min BCM.v SPEC BUY C$0.365 10-Jun-24 C$0.375 2.7% New risk spec on Ag & Au
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.71 9.3% M&A trade, gone off boil
Orecap Inv OCI.v BUY C$0.06 4-May-24 C$0.06 0.0% Exposed to several good jrs
Contango Ore CTGO STR BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$16.79 -10.2% Production re-rate in Q3
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.32 56.1% Cheap Au in West Africa
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.98 36.1% into FY24 news season now
IMPACT Silver IPT.v SPEC BUY C$0.30 14-Apr-24 C$0.25 -16.7% Silver spec, added IKN783
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Ero Copper ERO.to dropping C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$28.14 48.6% replacing with Amerigo
Red Pine Expl RPX.v WATCH C$0.08 4-May-24 C$0.09 12.5% Special situation, poss trade
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.08 -5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.155 -75.4% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
Equinox Gold EQX May'24 U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.57 26.0% Took sm.profit, disappointing
Adventus Mining ADZN.v May'24 C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.445 45.9% bot out, nice win
SolGold SOLG.to May'24 C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.165 -25.0% ran out of patience
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on just a few of our covered companies this week:
13

Ero Copper (ERO)(ERO.to): Leaving the Watch List. As announced above in a couple of
places, after due deliberation I’ve decided to withdraw Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) from the
Watch List and replace it with Amerigo Resources. Form one thing, the 48.6% upmove since we
added ERO to the list means that it’s run without my money on board and a lot of the potential
profit is gone. For another, it’s held on to most of its gains and showed relative strength that
suggests it’s not going back down to buyable levels (unlike ARG, see above). And finally, at
102.77m shares out and its current share price, ERO is a C$2.9Bn (U$2.1Bn) company and
while I dso on occasion buy, own and cover companies with billion-plus market caps, there has
to be a limit and ERIO these days is too rich for a publication like this one.
I still greatly admire ERO and expect it to go from strength to strength as its new mine comes
online, it’s also an obvious M&A target for any Tier 1 player looking to add copper to its metals
mix (e.g. Barrick, sorely in need of “doing something). But it’s getting dropped from our list as
from next weekend, mostly due to its success and size.
Mene (MENE.v): ADDING. In “Catching up with Menē Inc (MENE.v) (MENEF)” last week, we
laid out the case for the stock and I stated my
intention to add to my postion, something I
didn’t do after watching its Monday trading
(right). That’s way too much action for a day
after a report like mine and someone out there
paid too much. Yes there were better prioces
available later in the week but as we also have
the seller still active, there’s no reason to catch
the continued fall of this knife at any old pricean
addition. For what it’s worth, I got some
feedback from last week’s note from MENE Exec
Chair Sebag and while I’m not going to quote the
mail directly, I will say he agreed with all points
made (including the criticisms) and thought the
report a fair summary of MENE today and made specific comments about his optimism for lower
operating costs going forward and the scalability of the model under the new CEO. Also for
what it’s worth, he’s also keen on adding more stock at the sub-20c level, which is good to
know. I’ll add to my position in the days to come, if the current prices continue and there’s no
reason why they shouldn’t.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): It wasn’t an immediate rebound, but it’s good to know that my
buy price is close to the bottom as dammit is to swearing. For sure if silver and gold tank in the
days to come BCM can go lower, but at these levels the risk/reward balance favours the long.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): Meanwhile, the way this traded reminded me of the way it’s been
instantly demoted to third string silver position. I may be wrong, but it looks as though IPT
needs U$35/ozs silver to put in the run I think it’s capable of, while BCM would only need silver
to get over the U$30/oz line to start its move and re-take the 4-handle.
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to): SILV continues to
trade well and is showing relative strength to its
silver peers, as seen in this chart (right) tracking
the sotck against the main silver producers’ ETF
(SIL) and the metal (SLV proxy). Which is good,
because that’s what it’s supposed to do.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Alter the hit it took
the week befote last, MAI offered some small
solace by recovering well enough ande ven
finding some buyer action, though it’s still
patchy. As for production, a reminder that we’re
14

not expecting miracles from Q2 at Santana and it should come in at the same relatively low
“tick over” levels we saw in Q1, with the real improvements set to flow as from 3q24 and
onward. We also have the new Mexico government coming in, that’s starting to look less of an
issue than the market assumed just a couple of weeks ago. See Regional Politics for more on
that.
Orecap Invest Corp (OCI.v): the question now arising is “How much is Thierry really worth?”
At the moment we’re valuing it at the price it charged but the results now coming from the
project suggest further upside in the pipeline and an eventual deal to add more market value.
This week saw privco owner Cuprum, via its major shareholder OCI report (3) five holes
including this headline “Orecap's Cuprum Intersects 114 metres of 1.1% Copper Equivalent
within 171 metres of 0.98% Copper Equivalent”, along with four other holes that all show good
numbers that expand the footprint of its K1 zone.
The value add at the Thierry project property has been going well so far:
 In 2020, Canadian Critical Minerals (CCMI.v) bought Thierry for a ticket price of C$2.19m
 In 2023, CCMI sold 45% of Thierry to Orecap and 10% to QC Copper at a price that
valued the project at C$3m.
 The recent financing at 12% values the property at C$9.32m
 The new drill results and the upcoming resource update is likely to increase that further
The corporate moves have added value to the project to date, it’s now time for the rocks to talk
and to that end, Cuprum is doing the right thing by investing in the drillbit. In the meantime,
we’ll leave our valuation of OCI’s 29.5m shares of Cuprum as-is. With the changes in the prices
of the public quoted liquid assets held by OCI, we’re now at 8c asset value (not including its
land assets). That compares with its 6c share price this weekend and that’s my idea of good
backbone as we enter the drill assay result window for Awalé and American Eagle. There has
also been some chatter starting around Mistango, we’ll see if that can drill an interesting hole at
some point as well.
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.58 6.78 2.7
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.28 0.03 0.0
ARIC.v 8.33 0.58 4.83 2.0
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.38 1.58 0.6
QCCU.v 5.06 0.125 0.63 0.3
MIS.cse 24.71 0.04 0.99 0.4
Curprum privco 29.50 0.12 3.54 1.4
subtotal 18.38 7.4
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 19.88 8.0
At 247.714 S/O
15

Contango ORE (CTGO): It was a hard and heavy week. The selling continued after the
Monday webinar during which, CEO RVN confirmed that the dilutive and share price destroying
placement (and that warrant, ugh) was done partly to bring in comfort money. Infuriating.
I’m a holder of this stock because of its continued strong
fundamentals and the assumption that we’ll see a rally once
first gold is poured and production starts in good style at
Manh Choh, also because the current level is its long-term
baseline (chart below). But it was a painful week for a stock
that didn’t have to raise this money and even if it did, should
have done a far better job of explaining the reasons instead
of springing it on its shareholders at an inopportune moment.
It was a mistake and as it’s the first one we’ve seen from the
company, I’m willing to give it some slack, but one is my
strict limit.
12 RPX.v: Cash treasury per qtr
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): Now finding
11
trades at between 8.5c and 9c, zero reason to pay 10
9
more than 8.5c and we still expect lower prices to
8
show up before the new CEO takes over. The 7
6
treasury chart repeat (right) is a reminder that at 5
some point, RPX will have to raise further capital 4
3
and the obvious moment is around the time the C- 2
suite is officially handed over to Michael Michaud. 1
0
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): These are the things that sometimes happen in junior world:
MARI wasn’t the only copper developr to put in a late Friday pop (Regulus saw the same kind of
action) but it is indicative of what a thinly traded exploreco looks like when there’s an insistent
buyer. We’ll see if the 4-handle holds next week, as we’re still in what was always going to be a
16
81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA 91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA 02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA 12.yluJ 12.tcO 22.naJ 22.rpA 22yluJ 22.tcO 32.naJ 32.rpA 32.yluJ 32.tcO 42.naJ se42.rpA tse42yluJ
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

quiet news period for this company as it does the infill drilling and technical work required for
the PFS due at the end of the year (or early 2025). At that point MARI is more likely to be in
play but equally, it may be trading at higher levels by then. Continue to be happy with the way
this investment is going and at price we managed to snag. A very easy hold.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-five weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 4.12% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1621.63 8.68 21.2%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 161.833 636.00 3.93 -4.8%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 391.06 4.20 22.4%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 281.72 9.54 -19.2%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 166.42 0.98 10.1%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 204.72 165.82 0.81 28.6%
7 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 136.29 0.59 -57.1%
8 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 137.55 1.26 -28.0%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 236.911 87.66 0.37 -1.3%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 116.75 67.72 0.58 123.1%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 29.09 0.455 -21.6%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 27.09 0.255 41.7%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 21.71 0.125 4.2%
14 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 16.09 0.26 -57.4%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 11.37 0.055 -21.4%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 4.12%
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
Just four editions ago, there were nine of our 25%
fifteen stocks in the green and just six in the red. 20%
That balance has moved against us, with eight 15%
lines in red ink and seven in the green. That’s 10%
because The Copper Basket average lost 4.7% on
5%
the week and with one to go before the half-way
0%
point for the year (and the snapshot of relative
-5%
performances coming next weekend) we’re at the
-10%
lowest point since copper made its move in early
March. A full eleven component stocks were losers
so you don’t get the full list, instead we note the
biggest losers Hercules (BIG.v down 16.9%), Element 29 (ECU.v down 10.5%) and Aldebaran
(ALDE.v down 10.1%, bah and humbug) and move to the cheer from the three winners
(NGEX.to, MARI.to, FDY.to) and the sole unchanged stock (COR.v).
The backdrop to the jag down in copper stocks is a week for copper-the-metal that was
ostensibly negative, but not by much and if it weren’t for the reversal on Friday we’d be
chewing over a far better week,
Also, we chose the ten day timescale
on today’s representative chart (as
usual, the most traded futures
Comex futures contract) to show
that while down is down, we’re not
doing much more than oscillating
around the recently attained floor
level.
17
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32
source: IKN calcs

More astute chartists may be able to read more into the YTD
chart (and may even be right, too), but this desk is having a
hard time worrying about the level we reached at the end of
April and where we find copper today (right). As noted in
previous editions, my best guess of a copper that would find
resistance at U$4.70/lb or so didn’t turn out well but U$4.40/lb will do almost as well, as long
as it consolidates.
Meanwhile in macro news, this week the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) gave us the
latest snapshot of the physical copper market in 2024, with data to April (4). First up, mine
production in the first four months of 2024 comes to 7,330 million metric tonnes (mmt), that’s
2.75% up on the same four months of last year:
World copper mine production
18
8071 2181 0871 9281 6371 2061 3771 2071 7771 9471 8671 8971 4471 0381 3081 8581 6771 3361 5381 4671 7481 7481 5281 7481 3581 9191 4481 5791 7481 5461 8281 4181 3381 5681 4781 2881 2881 5291 3491 7991 5481 9671 9881 7281
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500 1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
pes tco von ced 1202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 2202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 3202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 4202naJ bef ram rpa
KMT
source: ICSG
That alone cocks a snook at the people who used the suspension of activities at Cobre Panama
as their reason to go long copper. Here’s a reminder, from Bloomie (5):
“Cobre Panama’s closure was one of the key catalysts behind a global shortage of copper ore
currently gripping the industry, which in turn has drawn bullish investors into the market and
helped pushed metal prices to the highest point in nearly two years. The mine accounted for
roughly 1.5% of the world’s supply of copper.”
Mine capacity utilized
90%
88%
86%
84%
82%
80%
78%
76%
74%
72%
70%
pes tco von ced 1202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 2202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 3202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 4202naJ bef ram rpa
source: ICSG
However, we do see the effects of Cobre Panama in the utilized capacity evolution that jagged
down three points when that mega-mine was closed and has stayed in the 76% 77% range
since. As for what’s the likely most important takeaway from this ICSG snapshot, the data isn’t
that different from the same period of 2023:
ICSG: Refined copper supply surplus/deficit, per month
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
pes tco von ced 1202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 2202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 3202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luJ gua pes tco von ced 4202naJ bef ram rpa
kmt Cu
source: ICSG

The first quarter is always one of supply surplus, mainly due to the buying cycle in China that
tends to see end-users stock for the coming year by December, followed by the industrial down
period caused by its New Year holiday celebrations and extended public holiday. Seeing the
early year surplus spike is therefore normal and while we can point to the differences YoY, with
the big 2023 surplus months of January and February becoming February and March in 2024,
the drop back to a quasi market equilibrium in April is inline (give or take 30k) and indeed, the
total surplus over the first four months of 2023 was 29,000kmt higher than this year (329kmt
vs 299kmt). It’s somewhat hazardous to read too much into the near-term of noisy datasets
that are better indicators of long-term trends, but we can cautiously point to the latest ICSG
data as reason to suppose that the current media hype about a demand lag is being overplayed
(in much the same way that the supposed supply deficit was stuffed down our collective throats
at the start of 2024.
Bottom line: Demand for copper hasn’t suddenly disappeared and reports of Chinese copper
death have been greatly exaggerated.
Semi-related, this week we have different tack from our normal curated copper macro
comment: While filtering for a representative quote or two from bizwires on Friday, what struck
this desk most was the media’s new obsession on copper demand and the repetition of
message, pinning any move on the same labels no matter what. Lazy journalism perhaps, but in
the same way we felt rather out of fashion during Q1 for pointing out demand was as important
as supply, these days we’re being swamped by reports that fixate on demand, demand, China
and demand as Q2 draws to a close. So instead of one or two newswire reports and a
paragraph, today you get a representative list of recent Reuters headlines on copper, presented
in chronological order:
 Monday 17 June PM (6): “Copper slides as China factory output data disappoints”
 Tuesday 18 June PM (7): “Copper falls to two-month low on rising inventory,
stronger dollar
 Wednesday 19 June PM (8): “Copper supported by supply shortages, but demand
caps gains”
 Thursday 20 June AM (9): “Copper bounces despite inventories jump”
 Thursday 20 June AM (10): “Copper up on China’s easing monetary policy stance,
demand rebound, supply concerns”
 Thursday 20 June PM (11): “Copper edges up on hopes of stronger demand,
stockpiles cap gains”
 Friday 21 June AM (12): “Copper prices set for weekly gain on demand pick-up”
 Friday 21 June PM (13): “Copper resumes downtrend on supply overhang and weak
demand”
So that’s demand, inventories, China, demand, demand, China, stockpiles, inventories, demand,
supply overhang and weak…yes you guessed it…demand. If we therefore apply the truism “If it
appears in the news headlines it’s too late” to the copper market, we’re now at the bottom of
the weak demand trough and the next trend we’ll get is headers talking of a “demand pick-
up”…a few weeks after the price starts moving, of course.
However, it’s not all bullish out there and the following data ar ebound to get an airing in the
days to come in a trade channel near you. Our regular weekly taking of the world copper
inventories pulse, with data from our friends at Cochilco:
 Another net add to the world’s copper inventory, but this time it was a slight 319 metric
tonnes (mt) to close at 474,212mt. With SHFE possibly having peaked, we may finally
be seeing a peak in the 2024 numbers. Better late than never, I suppose.
 A second small reduction in the abnormally high SHFE copper inventories on the week,
a drop of 7,843mt to close at 322,910mt. Small stuff again, but two moves in the right
19

direction is a start and given a third signal this time next week, we’d finally be able to
call the annual top in SHFE stocks.
 A notably big add to LME copper stocks, with a total of 31,250mt added to stocks and
all of it happened in its Asia warehouses, with 19,725mt into South Korea and
11,100mt into Taiwan. The total in LME is now 165,175mt and impressivelty,
119,425mt of those are in its Asia houses, with 44m150mt in LME Europe warehouses
amd just 1,600mt in North America.
 The Comex saw another net draw down, this tome 519mt to close stocks at 8,314mt.
Low and getting lower.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows stocks have now dropped by just over 14kmt from the high of
226kmt of two weeks ago. The SHFE reduction is still relatively small, however. What matters
more this week is that dump of over 31kmt of copper onto the LME. That’s evidence of the
much-rumoured and talked about “China copper export”, with metal leaving the country after
failing to find an end user. The talk has always been about around 100kmt of copper about to
leave the country and find another home, so time will tell whether more ends up in LME
storerooms. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least, we know that the world is watching
this dataset carefully at the moment and if China thinks it can jawbone prices down further by
weighing copper into publically scrutinized warehouses, it will do so. Never forget, as the
biggest end user of the stuff by an enormous margin and keen to keep a lid on inflation inside
its borders, it’s in China’s best interests to pay less for copper, not more.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on some of our basket stocks:
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): The price slide continues in SLS, despite the company hosting a
site visit during which the company tried the same in-person explanations for its assembled
analysts as it has used on the general public by wheeling out reps from the local villages
(Warints and Yawi) to explain the company was welcome and ignored the position taken by the
elected authority of this semi-automous zone, the PSHA, which conrtinues to vehemently
oppose its presence. An example of the type of script analysts need to public in order to
carefully tiptoe through the minefield is on show here (14), the 8 Capital site visit report that
contains these words:
The 2019 MOU signed with Shuar Centres of Warints and Yawi for land access and use comprises four main
mineral concessions. The EIA for exploration was received in June-2023 and an IBA was updated in April-2024,
providing certainty and terms of community support for project advancement. Warints and Yawi are the
communities within the area of influence and are recognized as legal persons who have the possession of the
land under applicable laws. Through the General Assemblies, Warints and Yawi have agreed to work in
partnership with SLS on the Warintza Project. The original use of the land was living and farming and the
development of the Warintza project will require relocation of the influenced communities, with a total impacted
population of 1,500 from both centres, which was discussed in the updated IBA.
Solaris recently announced a trilateral cooperation agreement with FISCH and the AEI of Ecuador to promote
the economic and social development of Shuar communities, represented by FICSH, including the communities
of Warnits and Yawi which host the Warintza project. The Shuar Arutam People’s Association (PSHA), a
collection of 6 Shuar Associations representing 47 Shuar Centres (including Warints and Yawi) also published a
community agreement signed with Solaris. A Strategic Alliance Board formed jointly by SLS and the Shuar

Centres of Warints and Yawi provides the foundation of collaboration and continues to overlook and engage in a
direct and transparent way regarding all Warintza Project related activities. During our meetings, Shuar
representatives expressed their understanding and approval of the project and their willingness to work together
with SLS to advance the exploration and further development.
There is nothing new in that first paragraph, we know the
immediate villages have been supportive of the project and
largely due to the financial gain it brings to the zone.
However, the second paragraph has some very, but very
carefully chosen words. For one, you wouldn’t know from the
above that FISCH has seen a revolt against the leader who
signed the agreement with Solaris and a change of
leadership. For another, you’ll also note a lack of timestamp
on the “agreement” with the PSHA. That, in fact, stems back
to previous leadership that was also kicked out for coming to
an agreement with SLS to the disdain of its membership and
a deal that’s been rescinded since then by the very same
PSHA. Finally, “Shuar Representatives” in that final sentence
are almost certainly members of the Warints/Yawi local
villages and not from PSHA. WE underscore that PSHA is the
official authority in the region with the right to vote the social
license up or down. That cannot be done by the
Warints/Yawi villages.
As such, the indigenous organizations in this part of the
world felt it necessary to reiterate its position last week (15)
via this communiqué (right). Here’s a translation (your
author’s hand):
The NASHE-NAE-FICSH-PSHA organizations of the Shuar-Achuar Interfederational Committee
ratify our rejection and give lie to the publication of Solaris Resources publication regarding the
Warintza mining project in Ecuador.
In recent years, the Canadian mining company, Solaris Resources, along with national government
executives, has become one of the main threats to the integrity and harmony of the Shuar Nation
territories and its organizations. Solaris entered our territories illegally and without prior
consultancy, specifically into the communities of Yawi and Warints, by co-opting leaders, dividing
communities and families and causing provoking confrontations between our organizations.
However, the unity and ancestral Shuar strength has prevailed. We are millennial peoples and
nationalities that existed long before the very existence of the Ecuadorian state.
We reject the distortion in the publication made by Solaris via social networks regarding a supposed
agreement between the company and PSHA, information that is absolutely false. As publicly
clarified by its president Jaime Palomino in a full meeting of our organizations on June 1, 2024,
nothing has been signed or will be signed with this transnational company. We repudiate these
malicious and deceitful statements that only increase conflict in our organizations and serve to
embellish and clean up the company’s public image.
We also reject Solaris's attempt to sign an agreement with former president David Tankamash to
allow mining to move forward. The current FICSH, leadership, presided by Domingo Ankuash, has
resumed the historic Shuar policy of territorial defence, one which aligns with the poitions of the
sister organizations of the Shuar and Achuar of Morona Santiago.
Therefore, we state to Solaris, its shareholders, partners and investors, the Ecuadorian
government, the Canadian government, and the general public that we ratify our rejection of
pressure tactics and social division to impose on us mining projects such Warintza. Neither Solaris
nor any other company will have the opportunity to negotiate with our territories.
We reject the advance of mining in our territories, a clear threat to our culture, land and territory that
constitutionally speaking, are inalienable, unseizable, imprescriptible and indivisible, and to which
we have the right to not be displaced.
The Shuar-Achuar Interfederational Committee NASHE, FICSH, PSHA, will be vigilant regarding
any action by Solaris, an invader of the ancestral territory of the great Shuar Nation of Ecuador.
This desk wonders how many times the people with the veto on the social license for any mine
at Warintza have to state the same thing before the world understands.
21

NGEx Resources (NGEX.to): The last time NGEX announced a great assay from its
Lunahuasi target was at the start of May and the 509m of 1.33% CuEq, a hole we commented
upon in IKN781, dated May 5th 2024. That week the stock hadn’t reacted in the way the social
media peanut gallery had expected and here’s what we said at the time:
You cannot blame NGEX for drilling this target and the results show more evidence of an
exceptionally strong system at Lunahuasi, but to a large extent we knew that already. So
after the coos and wows from the social media watchers, NGEX failed to rally on this NR
and dropped with the rest of the sector as the week turned negative. That didn’t surprise
so much, it’s going to take a lot more than deep drilled new stockwork to move this high
market cap much higher.
IKN788 back and we can use that, word for word, on last week’s NR and new assay out of
Lunahuasi. This time NGEX announced (16) two holes of important results…
 DPDH020 cutting 750.1m of 1.13% CuEq, including a high-grade zone of
17.3m grading 5.94% CuEq
 DPDH021 cutting 772.5m of 1.60% CuEq, including a high-grade zone of
8.1m grading 6.04% CuEq
…and here’s how the market reacted:
Another shoulder shrug. Once again, we’re not denying or denigrating the excellent progress
made by NGEX in the period starting 4q23, but we are saying that at this market cap, it needs
to come to market with something exceptional to move the stock higher, not simply another
round of great results from a zone from which the market is expecting great results.
Hercules Silver (BIG.v): The biggest loser on the week and it was on news, too. BIG did this
(chart right) due to this (17) published on Thursday pre-bell. It was at least upfront about the
issues it had encountered during the early stages of its 2024 program at its Hercules property,
Idaho USA, which include slower progress than expected with the drillbit and we were given a
approxmite ETA for first assays as “mid summer” (whatever that means, presumably August).
However, the devil seems to be in the details:
“Unfortunately, HER-24-07 had to be terminated prior to reaching the Lower Plate due to strong
artesian water flow beneath the Belmont Zone. Plans are to re-drill the hole in the fall when the
aquifer may have a lower charge. 2024 has seen abnormally heavy rainfall throughout the winter
and spring which may have excessively charged the aquifer under Belmont.”
That word “aquifer” should make any BIG holder nervous, up to and including Barrick (GOLD),
even though one bullboard supporter of BIG apparently
thinks an aquifer is (and I quote) “a fancy word for a
water table” (18). Ignorance truly is bliss. The company
“may” think its flow rate drops off later in the year and
“may” have been excessively charged by spring waters,
but then again it “may not” be as easy as that. While the
stock price recovered from the early selling, the way
volume decided to head for the exit on this news is
22

normally a tell on the near-term future and Friday looks like a bounce of the dead cat variety.
In my opinion, if you want to play the drill assay game on BIG you can wait for that Thursday
opening price of 53c to reappear first.
American Eagle (AE.v): Back to sub-60c prices, this is the appealing level for risk/reward
speculation on the upcoming drill results. In the same way as Awalé (ARIC.v), it’s somewhat
tempted to get in front of the assay results and take a speculative chunk (see TinyCaps Basket
below) but for the time being, I’ll limit myself to exposure via the Catch-All Orecap (OCI.v),
which looks even cheaper and gives better downside protection in case of a duster. But I’m
thinking about it so let’s say it clearly, sub-60c is tempting even for a yellow-belly like me.
The Producer Basket
After 25 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 14.21% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 48.71 42.26 2.1%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 32.48 65.23 18.9%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 29.08 16.56 -8.5%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 22.42 116.72 5.3%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 7.41 20.32 24.4%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 3.50 14.71 16.4%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.19 5.17 7.5%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.04 15.00 15.7%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.45 7.90 22.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.19 8.01 37.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 14.21%
The first uptick week since early May for The Producer Basket, with nine out of ten winners and
just one loser in silver producer Hecla (HL down 0.6%). Most of the winners were of modest
size, with the only upside outlier being Lundin Gold (LUGDF yup 7.1%) finally showing some
backbone after a couple of weeks of underperformance. Collectively, our ten picks for 2024 did
slightly better than the GDX benchmark and we’re now 4.6% ahead, with one week before we
reach the halfway point for the year.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
30% comparative to GDX control
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
As from next week we’re going to have to run more features in this section and fill it more than
we have in the last couple of weeks as the busy season of quarter end, then production reports
and then quarterly results rolls around. This is the last thin content week for The Producer
Basket.
23
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
2.0%
ikn 1.0%
gdx control 0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
source: IKN calcs -8.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

The TinyCaps List
After 25 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 58.64% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 248.82 28.61 0.115 76.9%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 85.319 49.49 0.58 329.6%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 35.30 0.33 94.1%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 21.02 0.14 -22.2%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 6.20 0.07 -30.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 6.79 0.095 26.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 11.41 0.16 23.1%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 30.26 0.62 -17.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 284.79 44.14 0.155 72.2%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 18.94 0.16 33.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 58.64%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps basket average lost 4.8% on the
week, with the headcount of five losers (ARIC.v, 100% TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
DMX.v, EDG.v, STS.v, VAU.v) and four winners 90%
80%
(BAY.v, KLDC.v, PA.v, SURG.v, VAU.v) and one 70%
unchanged stock (LMS.v) being most of the story 60%
50%
and the weighting of bigger losers on average the 40%
other part. Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v up 27.3%) that 30%
20%
moved 1.5c on thin volume and provided some 10%
relief, but there was no escape from the drops in 0%
Endurance (EDG.v down 15.2%) and Awalé (ARIC.v
down 10.8%), they made the difference.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): On Friday SURG announced the closing of its latest $2.2m financing
in good order, we therefore suppose the above share count is correct. We also suppose SURG
has all the money it needs to go about its business for the rest of 2024 minimum and we won’t
see any more shares added to the count. Wishing the company luck with the drillbit.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): As the chart
(right) shows, Friday’s 58c close is the lowest
we’ve seen since the discovery hole at Odienné,
nearly three weeks ago, and only the second
time it’s been under what might or might not be
the psychologically important 60c level in that
time.
This is beginning to shape as a binary trade on
the next drill hole, with the obvious gap below to
24
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

around 40c if the results don’t impress the same way as hole OEDD-83 on March 25th and its
32m at 45.7 g/t Au, with true width estimated at 75%. However, some sort of confirmation
from ARIC and its JV partner NEM that the hole wasn’t an outlier (plus a favourable market)
and we can easily see a Loonie again.
Place your bets, ladies and gents. And to be clear, even though I’m exposed to this via Orecap
(OCI.v above) I’m seriously considering a fliptrade in ARIC directly, at some point the
risk/reward balance favours even a lilly-livered chicken like me.
South Star (STS.v): STS made the trade press last week in this mining dot com article (19)
published Thursday June 20th and entitled “South Star nears startup of the Americas’ first new
graphite mine in over 25 years”. Here’s how it starts:
South Star Battery Metals (TSXV: STS) is preparing to begin production at the Phase 1 plant of its
flagship Santa Cruz graphite mine in Bahia, Brazil, within the next few weeks.
The company announced this week that it has made the final payment on the 3.25 square
kilometres of land purchase required for the construction of the Phase 1 mine and plant facilities.
Santa Cruz is scheduled to complete the Phase 1 plant construction in June 2024, followed by an
estimated six weeks of commissioning and production ramp-up.
More reasonable and balanced overview resumé continues. All publicity is good publicity and
getting a junior developer on the pages of Mining Dot
Com is a positive.
Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v): Up a face-saving 27.3% on
thw week, to be fair to KLDC.v it did do bits and pieces
of volume early week at 5.5c and 6c. However, that
move from 6c to 7c on Friday on just 21k shares traded
is pure tape paint.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended
tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of under
$20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps
market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or several
of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Guatemala: Further to the Bluestone Resources EIA red light
Last week’s note “Guatemala: Bluestone Resources (BSR.v) has its EIA revoked” ended with the
words “…we called this a short in April and called it a short two weeks ago, as well. It’s still
exactly that but this time, it’s going to prove it.” Sure enough, it fell off its cliff when opening
for business on Monday, but…
25

…as the chart shows, its price staged a recovery as the week wore on and ended down just
17.4%. Volume surged on the news and BSR did 1.3m shares on Monday alone but, come
Friday trade was back to a trickle and just 37k went through the TSXV. We also got two NRs
from the company last week, the first pre-open on Monday acknowledging the news and
providing no real extra comment, then on Friday morning an active response (20):
June 21, 2024 – VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA – Bluestone Resources Inc. (TSXV:BSR |
OTCQB:BBSRF) ("Bluestone" or the "Company") has reviewed the legal aspects of the
notification received from the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of Guatemala
(“MARN”) (see June 17, 2024, press release) and has begun an appeal process. While the
notification is under appeal the approved environmental permit amendment remains valid.
Background to the Environmental Permit Amendment
The approved environmental permit amendment met and exceeded the terms of reference that
the MARN instructed the Company to follow, and it adhered to Guatemalan law. The
environmental permit amendment was granted after a 26-month review period consisting of
multiple field visits and was approved and signed by a team of government experts from various
ministries who participated in the different stages of the process.
This is to be expected. The line BSR will use is that its EIA was emitted legally and any dubious
behaviour shown by the government (i.e, functionaries of the previous government under the
notoriously shady President Alejandro Giammattei is nothing to do with the company. The is the
same President who is barred from entering the USA due to his presumed involvement in
multiple corruption cases, the same one that in 2021 took delivery of a rolled up carpet from a
delegation of Russian embassy aides, inside which was hidden millions of dollars in cash. We
could continue.
Presumably, BSR will stick to its “butter wouldn’t melt in our mouths” defence all the way up to
and including the international industrial tribunals. We remind readers that the EIA permit was
awarded to BSR five days before the end of the Giammattei government period and specifically
timed to that precise day to avoid any opportunity of the incoming government spotting the
permit approval during the handover period and vetoing the permit.
We now await the next chapter of this story, as it will only need one ex-government official who
was part of the highly dubious permit award to turn State’s witness for BSR to find itself in all
sorts of trouble. The long theory seems to be “It’s the Lundins, they can’t possibly be involved
in corrupt activity, they’re good at problem regions, they’ll sort it out. This desk expects that set
of fantasies will be blown out of the water as soon as the Guatemala investigation reaches the
criminal trial stage and those in the government who assisted BSR in getting its permit, using
false signatures and other irregularities, sing for their freedom. At this price it’s not easy for the
common retail player to short but it’s still exactly that, a short.
Mexico: Sheinbaum’s ministers
Thursday morning saw President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum announce the first six members of
her cabinet of ministers and while she still hasn’t announced who her Secretary (Minister) of
Mining will be, we got enough solid information to provide relevanty comment. For mining FDI
on the outside looking in there are three appointments to care about so far:
Marcelo Ebrard as Minister of Economy: This is good news for business. An orthodox
economist and heavyweight in Mexican politics, Ebrard was Foreign Minister in the AMLO
government until resigning in order to run for President in the MORENA primaries (won
by Sheinbaum). His appointment has MORENA putting on a united front, but also one
that business will like. This announcement was the one that made the Peso rally last
week and brought visible sighs of relief from the business community who, for some
reason, was still under the impression Sheinbaum would be more radical than AMLO.
Putting an experienced technocrat in as FinMin says the opposite is true and that Mexico
will pay heed to its macroeconomic levers.
Alicia Bárcena to head SEMARNAT, the Environment and Natural Resources bureau that
the mining world has come to know and hate. Bárcena is the latest AMLO Foreign
Secretary and gained plenty of bonus points when protesting in the strongest terms
against Ecuador when Noboa raided its embassy to extract Jorge Glas. She’s an
26

environmentalist, has done her stints in the Ministry of the Environment and has
previously worked closely with Sheinbaum. Depsite her “Enviro Academe” credentials,
Bárcena is a pragmatic politico rather than a green activist.
In a subsequent TV interview (21), Barcena said precisely zero about our world of hard
rock and metals mining but did talk enviro related to the Oil & Gas industery and
underscored her desire to make Mexico a Carbon Neutral country (also aimed squarely at
the country’s PEMEX oil company) and said she would promote renewable energy
initiatives, which is an indirect positive for copper mining if you want to extrapolate a
little. But her priorities as noted last week are not around the mining industry and she
was more concerned about other matters, such as the EIA for the controversial Tren
Maya project.
Rosaura Ruiz to head the newly formed ministry of Science, Technology, Humanities and
Innovation. This is an interesting move by Sheinbaum and the first to indicate she will be
unafraid of plowing her own furrow. The ministry get a mention here because par tof its
brief will be to bring “knowledge and evidence-based decisions to other policy areas” of
the Sheinbaum government, in other words the plan is to base decision on scientific
facts, rather than ideology or guesswork and for this ministry to liaise with others to
come to the best decisions possible
There were six appointments announced in all, which leaves an estimated 15 more to fill her
cabinet before Sheinbaum takes office in August. chart shows the positive reaction in the Peso
(MXN versus the Greenback on this news and I’m still perplexed at just why the currency
weakened the way it did. The “Supermajority” isn’tm that scary (22) (23).
Ecuador: The New Yorker of Daniel Noboa
A minor scandal erupted in Ecuador this week on the publication of ‘Ecuador’s Risky War on
Narcos’, a long-form essay in The New Yorker by Jon Lee Anderson (the smartest and most
connected of LatAm correspondents). Before anything else, let’s state clerly that it’s very good
journalism and anyone exposed to or considering exposure to Ecuador (e.g. via mining
investments) should read it, so here’s the link (24). Compiled over several weeks by a reporter
given multiple first hand access opportunities to be with the President over long periods,
Anderson does well to capture much of the essence and flavour of the country under Noboa
today, doesn’t shirk from portraying Noboa as part of the elite, prone to self-aggrandisement,
out of touch with the man on the street, and in some respects rather callous, gives voice to his
critics but overall and after several readings, even after that little list I’d say that Noboa comes
out in a positive light. Well worth a read for both style as well as its substance, it was easy to
digest multiple reads and is recommended to this audience.
However, it was certainly enough of a high-profile article to upset his opponents, who were
soon scouring it to find something they could use against him. Sure enough they found it in one
passage of the report where Noboa offered his personal opinion of some of the region’s other
Heads of State. This goes against standard protocol and allowed the country’s parliament
(Assembly) an easy target so on Thursday, it voted up a resolution reprimanding President
Noboa for (translated) (25), “…inopportune, improper, inappropriate, inconvenient and
unfortunate declarations emitted by the President of the Republic, Daniel Noboa, against
27

presidents Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador, Gustavo Petro, President of the Republic of
Colombia, Gabriel Boric, President of the Republic of Chile and Javier Milei, President of the
Repúblic of Argentina” and if all that sounds pompous and high-handed, it’s because it is.
Here’s the section that allowed open season on Noboa:
He seemed less impressed by other regional leaders. When I mentioned Chile’s Boric—a fellow-
millennial, just a few years older—Noboa said that he “seems all right,” but was hamstrung by his
far-left coalition partners. “It’s not a problem I have,” he added. He described Colombia’s President,
the former Marxist guerrilla Petro, as a “leftist snob,” adding that he had a habit of delivering
lectures rather than engaging in conversation. “He’s smart, but he’s not getting anything done,”
Noboa said. Milei was worse, in his view: “I don’t know why he thinks he’s so great. He hasn’t
achieved anything since he became President. He seems full of himself—which is very Argentine,
actually.”
Among his peers in the region, Noboa is most often compared to Bukele, who has moved to end his
country’s security problems by jailing more than eighty thousand purported gang members, some of
them in a gigantic, purpose-built new prison. But a close aide of Noboa’s had warned me that his
boss reacted badly to the comparison. When I mentioned Bukele’s name in the S.U.V., he wrinkled
his nose and said, “The guy is arrogant and all about controlling power for himself and making his
family rich.” There were a handful of families who owned everything in El Salvador, he said, “and
now there are the Bukeles.” I noted that Bukele had referred to himself as “the coolest dictator in
the world.” Noboa smirked and said, “Yeah, in a country the size of Guayas”—a midsize province of
Ecuador.
Noboa distinguished his security campaign from that of Bukele, who had imposed authoritarian
measures by overriding his country’s institutions. “What I did was entirely democratic,” Noboa said.
“I asked the legislature and the judiciary when I declared my war. I had the backing of the three
powers to do it.”
All good fun and after the official reprimand, Noboa limited himself to saying that his words had
been “taken out of context” by Anderson, which is unlikely. Anyway, the reason for this non-
mining note today is to draw your attention to the New Yorker long-form article, it’s well worth
your time as background reading material for the state of the Ecuador nation. It also goes well
with the real mining news out of the country, here below.
Ecuador: Mining and prior consultancy
The above on Noboa’s diplomatic faux pas is interesting enough, but Tuesday June 25th sees a
real deal mining event in Ecuador when CONAIE, Ecuador’s politically powerful indigenous rights
organization, a law project for “Prior, Free, Informed and Consented Consultancy” to the
country’s Parliament (Assembly). At this point it’s a case of “how much detail do we go into?”
because there’s plenty of backstory (26) that’s not directly applicable to mining that helps
explains how we got here, but a quick paragraph won’t harm. Currently, prior consultancy is
enshrined as a constitutional right but there is no organic law to regulate it and due to this,
environmentalists brought a case to the country’s Supreme Court that was resolved in their
favour earlier this year. The court ordered parliament (Assembly) to pass a law covering its
nature and in May, a bill was presented (under some duress) by the president of the Assembly,
one Henry Kronfle. Señor Konfle is a Guillermo Lasso ally (and therefore of the current Noboa
government) and his political line is to hand as little power as possible to communities that
might oppose mining. As such, the law bill he offered to Assembly was far from the one wanted
by CONAIE and other pro-indigenous, pro-enviro organizations and it’s received plenty of
pushback. CONAIE at that time pledged to present its own version of a law bill covering Prior
Consultancy and that’s what we’re getting this coming Tuesday, with a meeting of CONAIE
people in Quito that will then march to the Assembly building to present its bill for debate.
Mining people should be concerned about this development, as it will formalize the process and
if the CONAIE version passes, will give communities the right of veto to any Project that (27)
“might affect the nature, culture or surrounding of common ancestral territorios, communities,
peoples and indigenous, Afroecuadorian or mixed races.” What we do know is that, one way or
another, the Supreme Court has ordered Ecuador’s parliament to pass a Prior Consultancy law.
The devil will be in the details, but even a watered down “pro mining” law is bound to slow the
permitting process considerably. It also comes as the case against Atico Mining at its La Plata
project has been fully presented (it took a month, several suspensions and six days of
28

courtroom time) and is under deliberation by the judges. If the courts decide the EIA and Prior
Consultancy process run by Atico has been a sham (as its detractors claim) it will add another
layer of complication to doing mining business in Ecuador.
On the bright side and separately, word is that the Mirador copper mine is about to get its
expansion permits. Those aren’t so difficult to obtain, what with the mine already operating. But
overall, Ecuador is looking difficult and this is even before campaigning starts for next year’s
Presidential election. Hilarity will ensue, but first we watch to see how much of a show of power
CONAIE can put on in Quito on Tuesday and the likelihood of its version of the law project has
of becoming law.
Market Watching
Deferred
Still as lazy as ever.
Conclusion
IKN788 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Bullish silver. In fact, bullish most things as we prepare to enter the second half of the
year. Metals of all types are in a good place and no matter what you may be told in the
nine-dimension chess world of economics, the basic line to remember is that mining
stocks do well when rates drop.
 Happy to welcome Amerigo back to the Stocks to Follow list, even though I’m not a
buyer immediately. As for ERO, I’ll chalk that one up to a missed opportunity in a great
company.
 Speculative trades in ARIC and AE are tempting as we enter the drill assay time window
for those hot stock stories. The best way may be to add more OCI, though.
 Avoid Ecuador. And Colombia. And Bolivia. Mexico is looking cheap, though.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.amerigoresources.com/investors/news/
(2) https://www.meteored.cl/tiempo-en_Rancagua-America+Sur-Chile-Libertador+General+Bernardo+O+Higgins--
sactual-18259.html
(3) https://orecap.ca/news/orecaps-cuprum-intersects-114-metres-of-1.1-copper-equivalent-within-171-metres-of-0.98-
copper-equivalent/
(4) https://icsg.org/press-releases/
(5) https://www.mining.com/web/cobre-panama-how-a-10-billion-copper-mine-is-now-sitting-idle-in-the-jungle/
(6) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-slides-as-china-factory-output-data-disappoints/
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-falls-to-two-month-low-on-rising-inventory-stronger-dollar/
(8) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-supported-by-supply-shortages-but-demand-caps-gains/
29

(9) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-bounces-despite-inventories-jump/
(10) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-up-on-chinas-easing-monetary-policy-stance-demand-rebound-
supply-concerns/
(11) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-edges-up-on-hopes-of-stronger-demand-stockpiles-cap-gains/
(12) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-prices-set-for-weekly-gain-on-demand-pick-up/
(13) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-resumes-downtrend-on-supply-overhang-and-weak-demand/
(14) https://research.viiicapital.com/Reports/Research/2024/June/SLS062024.pdf
(15) https://x.com/FNAntiminero/status/1803966756769149166
(16) https://ngexminerals.com/news/ngex-reports-lunahuasi-step-out-drilling-intersect-122764/
(17) https://herculessilver.com/news-release/?qmodStoryID=5648544626388775
(18) https://twitter.com/TheWealthMiner/status/1803828940064125181
(19) https://www.mining.com/south-stars-santa-cruz-graphite-mine-nears-completion/
(20) https://bluestoneresources.ca/news/index.php?content_id=208
(21) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGtjyO_yYfg
(22) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/mexico/quien-es-alicia-barcena-secretaria-de-medio-ambiente-en-
el-gobierno-de-sheinbaum/
(23) https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2024/06/21/quien-es-alicia-barcena-secretaria-medio-ambiente-sheinbaum-orix/
(24) https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/06/24/ecuadors-risky-war-on-narcos
(25) https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/politica/asamblea-resolucion-declaraciones-daniel-noboa-the-new-
yorker.html
(26) https://twitter.com/CONAIE_Ecuador/status/1803759712837497247
(27) https://confirmado.net/2024/05/30/movimientos-indigenas-y-sociales-de-ecuador-impulsaran-ley-de-consulta-
previa/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
30

Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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