IKN #779Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 779, April 21st 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Keep HODLing.
Fundamental Analysis: SilverCrest 1q24 production, IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) 2023 financials
and 2024 outlook.
Stocks to Follow: SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to), IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), Western Copper & Gold
(WRN.to) (WRN), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v), Adventus Mining
(ADZN.v), SolGold (SOLG.to), Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v), Equinox Gold (EQX), Rio2 Ltd
(RIO.v), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Solaris Resources (SLS.to), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to),
Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Kodiak Copper (KDK.v).
The Producer Basket: Barrick (GOLD), Newmont (NEM), Lundin Gold (LUG.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Surge Copper (SURG.v), Awalé Resources (ARIC.v),
Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: A success for Noboa and a problem for mining, Argentina: The
new Mining Secretary makes the right impression, Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum talks mining.
Market Watching: Next week.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 Today’s main Fundies note goes silver again, as we run the ruler over both of our
recently added and dedicated plays on the metal, SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) and
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) as both published updates and hard data on how they are doing
last week. For the TL:DR among you, your author is ahppy with both positions and will
now go and light a candle to the Silver Market Gods, wishing for that U$30/oz print.
 It’s easy to call yourself a contrarian investor, the difficult thing is to know what to be
contrarian against. You know I’m bullish copper (if now, check my portfolio), you know
I’m happy about seeing the metal run the way it has in April, but long-term readers of
The IKN Weekly won’t be surprised to read my leeriness about this move and the
fragile, “dumb money queue here” look of last week’s run in copper. That’s today’s
Copper Basket and the angles include 1) the stubboen way in which juniors failed to
react to the metal’s run, 2) the analysis of the way “industry veterans” whipped the
CRU/CESCO crowd into a feeding frenzy in Santiago last week and 3) the data we
continue to get our of copper’s major market, China, showing end-user demand has yet
to show real signs of life.
 Want an opinion on fun and games last week in Awalé Resources (ARIC.v)? I have
opinions! They’re mostly in TinyCaps Basket, but a few extra words are spilled as we
track the interesting a cheap Orecap (OCI.v) in Stocks to Follow.
 There’s a big moment this coming week for the producers and large cap companies,
when Newmont (NEM) reports its quarter and we had a flavour of what to expect when
Barrick disappointed the market last week with its pre-announced production and sales
1

numbers. Meanwhile, Lundin Gold (LUG.to) did a good job of removing my only
objection to buying and owning the stock.
 There’s also a big moment in Ecuador tonight, with the results of today’s 11 question
referendum called by new President Daniel Noboa due this evening. I’ll be staying up
late to get the results into the Regional Politics section,
Keep HODLing
No big intro this week, as any commentary
on the state of the gold market wouldn’t be
much more than a repeat of our recent op-
eds. Last week we focused on silver and
while you cannot put me in the To Da Moon
Per Ounce camp, the target range of
U$30/oz to U432/oz we outlined and justified
under reasonable and bullish market
conditions is more than enough to get on
with for the time being. As for gold, that was
two weeks ago in “Gold melting up” on the
back of the move that took the monetary
metal from U$2,200/oz to almost
U$2,350/oz, dragging all metals with it. Here’s how that note ended:
“Gold didn’t move up strongly last week due to a market aligning with its criteria, gold
moved up despite the market trying its best to throw obstancles in its path. It was an
immensely bullish display by gold, not to mention the rocket catch-up we saw in silver
and while we’re at it, copper did very well, too. Last week wasn’t the culmination of
anything related to gold, it was the start of something big.”
That hasn’t changed. The Fed is still trying to jawbone itself back into control, the market is
concerned about ongoing inflation and there are even a couple of yahoos ready to call Fed
rates higher now, rather than lower. Despite all that, gold has added another U$50/oz to its
price in USD and there’s no real reason to expect the trend to change, so you task as a metals
and mining speculator is to make sure you’re locked and loaded and stay that way. It’s not just
the same message as one or two weeks ago, it’s the same as all year and the words in
IKN776’s intro note “Gold continues to rally without the aid of capitalism” sum it up:
“…the bottom line to this week’s intro is the same as before; this is the time to be long
gold, HODL gold and make sure your mining “leverage plays” are in place. Until further
notice, don’t complicate your life.”
So keep HODLing, ladies and gents. That’s all.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
SilverCrest 1q24 production
The last time we covered SILV seriously was in IKN776 dated March 31st and the main fundies
analysis note “Buying SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to)”, the day I finally pulled ther trigger on
this trade after tracking it since August last year. Better late than never, as we’re up since the
trade started but would be up a lot more if I’d bought in at virtually any other date, including
the U$4.83 of IKN745 when coverage started or the U$5.60 or so in IKN767, when we put SILV
on the Watch List. We also noted the insider sales made by Eric Fier in IKN777 and decided it
was a reason to watch the stock trading a little more closely, but so far at least they haven’t
made much of a dent in its progress.
2

Which brings us to today, as we update on SILV after its 1q24 production data was published
post-close Wednesday Arpil 17th (1). The news saw SILV hit a new 52 week high…
…and quite right too, as results beat expectations. By the way, featuring the 12 month chart
also shows all those occasions since we started tracking this stock in early August that I had to
buy in lower, sometimes a lot lower, than my eventual entry point in March. Better late than
never, I suppose. Anyway, back to last week’s production NR and as Las Chispas is a dual metal
mine, two headlines are better than one:
 Silver production of 1.41m oz beat our estimate by 101,000 oz, with 1.40m oz sold also up
by 100k. As for the average received price, its U$23.37/oz for silver was 37c over our
estimate.
 Gold production of 14,719oz beat our estimate of 14,000 oz and sales of 15,000 oz added a
little extra pzazz to the mix. Much the same as in the case of silver, the average received
price of U$2,062/oz was a little better than our estimated U$2,000/oz guesstimate. All good.
Those two combine for the SILV reported preliminary sales revenues of U$63.6m, which sits like
this compared to previous quarters:
SILV: Calculated revenues by metal, per qtr
3
66.12
02
86.62
82.13
86.62
23.53
82
28.53
38.13
23.92
9.03
7.23
3.82
2.23
3.82
2.23
6.82
2.23
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
SILV: Silver production & sales, per qtr
U$m
Au calc revs
Ag calc revs
source: company filings, IKN calcs
We also note that after the slightly anomalous 4q23 in which revenues for gold were larger than
those of silver, the revenues split has moved back into silver’s favour with silver calculated as
41.0
1
63.1 54.1 35.1 72.1 4.1
Moz Ag SILV: Gold production & sales, per qtr
1.8
1.6 prod
1.4 sales
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24
source: company filings
00411 00241 00431 00541 00161 00051
Oz Au
20000
18000 prod
16000 sales
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24
source: company filings

covering 51.4% of gross revenues and gold 48.6%. We expect that slight bias toward silver to
continue through the year. For sure it’s not a big difference and SILV isn’t as pure a play on
silver as stocks such as MAG Silver (MAG) or IMPACT Silver (IPT.v, see below), but it’s better
than most of the (cliché alert) dedicated silver plays these days and for more, check out the
revenues mix at sector stalwarts First Majestic (FR.to) (AG), Pan American (PAAS), Fortuna
Silver (FSM) (FVI.to), Hecla (HL) among others. Not only are all those minority (or clear
minority) revenues from silver, but there’s plenty of their revenues coming from base metals. In
so many words, SILV is better than the bunch at this price range and a good option for people
looking for silver exposition.
Before we check out the P+L data, here’s a quick run over the three of the operational trackers
(we leave out recovery percentages) because they have their tale to tell. While mined material
(right) came in slightly higher than in the 2023 quarters
(85,737mt), milled material was significantly lower at
93,373mt due to the planned maintenance downtime in
March. That should bring down operating costs a little for
the quarter, we’ll find out if that’s so post-close on May 14th
when SILV reports (ConfCall the next morning). The other
two charts (below) show why SILV managed to keep
production levels up and even give uas a slight beat on the
quarter. Average head grade for both silver (479 g/t) and
gold 4.97 g/t) were notably higher and combined with the
mined material number, the inference is straightforward: In
other to compensate for the maintenance downtime, SILV
didn’t cut the high grade direct mine feed with as much stockpile.
Moving to the P+L, the pre-announced U$63.6m in revenues is just shy of the record quarter,
but the expected lower costs should see Mine Operating Income comes in at a new record, we
estimate U$40.1m
SILV: Quarterly Earnings overview
4
7.2 8.0 9.1
8.04
3.41 5.62
0.85
4.22
6.53
0.26
7.32
3.83
8.36
4.62
5.73
3.16
4.42
9.63
6.36 5.32
1.04
SILV: Ore mined/milled
U$m
80
revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24est
source: company filings
That’s 27c on a per-share basis, though we should note SILV has been signaling it has its
annual tax bill to settle this quarter, so expect net EPS to be substantially lower (and while
we’re on the subject, due to this casual observers and/or quant based trading programs may
offer up a buying opportunity on the day of the earnings report, one to keep in mind). After
considering SILV’s disclosed treasury position (approx U$71m cash) and its obligations, I’m
00056
000401
00636
004401
00447
009701
00838
005411
00687
005401
73758 37339
mt
140000 Ore mined
120000 Ore milled
100000
80000
60000 40000
20000
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24
source: company filings
SILV: Silver head grade (g/t)
283 914 944 314 014 974
SILV: Gold head grade (g/t)
550
500
450
400
350
300 250 200
150
100
50
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24
source: company filings
76.3 60.4 48.4 53.4 82.4 79.4
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3 2.5 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24
source: company filings

going to the extreme end in this chart and assuming it pays U$26m BUT, but but but, after
staring at the liability breakdown in the financials note section I also realize that I don’t know
enough about SILV’s tax position to make a reasonable estimate. That’s why I’ve assumed a fat
payment, but by the looks of things I may be over-estimating that by a lot and there are credits
to offset the total due.
SILV: EPS and Mine Op Inc per share, per qtr
5
71.0
10.0
21.0 81.0 81.0
42.0
61.0
62.0
12.0
62.0 42.0 52.0
20.0
72.0
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1
U$/share
EPS
MOI
source: company filings, IKN calcs
We also see its effects in the balance sheet items, here are the overview assets and liabilities
charts:
inventories SILV: Assets Breakdown per qtr SILV: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
U$m fixed
120
500 other current
110
450 cash&ST 100
400 90
80
350
70
300 60
250 50
200 40
30
150 20
100 10
50 0
0
source: company filings
We see the aggregate totals drop in both assets and liabilities compared with 4q23, with the big
drop in current liabilities as the tax debt disappears and the levels return from whence they
came. We also know the treasury position, an implied U$71.1m but what really matters here is
the increase in working capital and that should move up to around U$140m.
As for the future, SILV has delivered well on its first quarter and as the new contractor beds in,
we’ve been guided for lower unit costs in the second half of this year. The mine plan seems in
shape and the rise in the prices of both silver and gold at market are ready to push SILV higher.
For an estimate on that, we return to our cash flow model. Despite the slight beat on
production, we’re going to keep our assumptions as per for the time being and see how Q2
comes in before potentially adjusting upwards, so we’re still at 5.56m oz silver and 57k oz gold
for 2024. However these days, we need to consider the higher price deck assumptions for the
year of U$28/oz silver and U$2,300/oz gold. Those point us to annual revenues of U$281m:
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings
SILV: Treasury, per qtr
260
240
220
200
180
160
140 120
100 80
60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1
U$m SILV: Working Capital per qtr
source: company filings
68.621
96.222
33.391 43.671 55.971 26.061 17.641
70.921 198.47 464.17 553.69 33.811 67.621 041
240
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80 60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

SILV: 2024 Production and Metals Revenues (U$m)
Price $1,900/oz Au $2,000/oz Au $2,200/oz Au $2,300/oz Au
Deck $22/Oz Ag $23/Oz Ag $25/Oz Ag $28/Oz Ag
thruput (mt/yr) 450000 450000 450000 450000
Ag grade (g/t) 396 396 396 396
Ag prod(Moz) 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
U$/oz 22 23 25 28
silver revs 122.3 127.9 139.0 155.7
Au grade (g/t) 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02
Au prod (oz) 57,004 57,004 57,004 57,004
U$/oz $1,900 $2,000 $2,200 $2,300
gold revs 108.3 114.0 125.4 131.1
Tot gross revs 230.6 241.9 264.4 286.8
TC/RC+NSR 22.7 23.8 26.0 28.2
Top line sales 226.0 237.0 259.1 281.0
Sources: SILV data, IKN calcs and estimates
Following on and without touching the model inputs (again for the moment, let’s see how Q1
and Q2 financials come in), the U$28/oz silver and U$2,300/oz gold model gives us operating
income of U$182.9m:
SILV: 2024 Condensed Income statement forecast (U$m)
Four 1 2 3 4
Price $1,900/oz Au $2,000/oz Au $2,200/oz Au $2,300/oz Au
Decks $22/Oz Ag $23/Oz Ag $25/Oz Ag $28/Oz Ag
Tot gross revs 230.6 241.9 264.4 286.8
TC/RC+NSR 22.7 23.8 26.0 28.2
Top line sales 226.0 237.0 259.1 281.0
COGS 51.8 51.8 51.8 51.8
Depreciation 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0
SGA+R&D 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4
Op income 127.9 138.9 161.0 182.9
Interest (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0)
Workers Part. 10.4 11.3 13.0 14.8
Tax 32.3 35.0 40.5 45.9
Net income 87.2 94.7 109.5 124.2
Shares out 146.94 146.94 146.94 146.94
EPS 0.59 0.64 0.75 0.85
Sust. Capex 40 40 40 40
FCF 1.02 1.07 1.17 1.27
Sources: SILV data, IKN calcs & estimates
And at the baseline 12X EPS, that’s now a U$10.14 target price, representing a 28% upside to
this weekend. And I can live with that for several reasons.
SILV Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data for SILV based on
Price deck 1 2 3 4 current price deck (U$28/oz Ag, U$2,300/oz Au)
Sales (U$m) 226 237 259 281 12-month target $10.14 based on 12x EPS
Sales growth 5% 9% 8% Upside to target 28%
EPS 0.59 0.64 0.75 0.85 Mkt cap (U$m) $1,161 Enterprise value $1,105
FCF 1.02 1.07 1.17 1.27 P/sales (1) 4.90 EV/sales (1) 4.66
6

P/E (1) 13.3 EV/EBITDA (1) 7.4
P/E (2) 12.3 EV/EBITDA (2) 6.9
P/E (3) 10.6 EV/EBITDA (3) 6.0
For one, silver and gold are now trading above both our input prices and for another, if the
silver mania starts to gain real momentum we know the market is capable of paying up to own
these stocks, typically more than for gold miners. So if the multiple rises to 16X the target
zooms even higher:
SILV tgt sensitivities on EPS & Metals Decks (in USD)
Price Deck 12x EPS 14x EPS 16X EPS
1 (1.9k Au, 22/oz Ag) $7.12 $8.31 $9.50
2 (2.0k Au, 23/oz Ag) $7.73 $9.02 $10.31
3 (2.2k Au, 25/oz Ag) $8.94 $10.43 $11.92
4 (2.3k Au, 28/oz Ag) $10.14 $11.83 $13.52
source: IKN calcs & ests
We’ve run this chart before, but it’s a reminder that U$13.52 wouldn’t shock me, especially if
silver breaks U$30/oz and the feeding frenzy starts. That would be 71% up from this weekend
and if that hits, I’d take my near double and thank the market kindly.
Bottom line: A good quarter of production from SILV last week and the mrket reaction was the
right one. We now await May 14th and the financials, looking for slightly lower opex than 4q23
and wouldn’t that be a refreshing change for a PM miner? The slight beat on production also
gives us the potential to see better than modeled production for this year, but no rushing to
conclusions on just one quarter’s worth of data. Happy with this trade so far.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) 2023 financials and an updated 2024 outlook
While calling buy in last week’s note on IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) “Every dog has its day”, I tried to
made it clear how this speculative trade is predicated on the 2024 future of IPT under our new
and higher silver price environment, rather than anything it has done in the last few years or its
own organic growth profile. That’s a mouthful of words to say “this is a mediocre company, but
even dogs like this can make a decent profit if silver continues to run”. We also featured some
simple price charts to highlight IPT’s reputation as a vehicle for speculation on silver, a possible
place for fast and furious leverage if the market falls in its favour. However, we also ran the
ruler over the operations and financial state of play at IPT last week, as per its last published
quarter. That was 3q24 and it just so happens that my information was put out of date just two
days later when the company filed its annuals (2). It so happens there are some significant
differences to my assumptions as laid out last week and the reality of IPT, so today’s note puts
those to rights.
Plomosas: The first job is to note the mess I made when ignoring Plomosas. As it’s not an
integral part of the buy thesis, only recently bought and hadn’t formed any meaningful part of
the company financials to 3q23 I all-but ignored the 2023 acquisition in the North of Mexico,
brought in to provide a second operating facility and a project to expand on production and add
base metals (mostly zinc) as well as some silver to the production mix.
What happened? Just two days after I publish extracts of the model I’d built up of IPT, this
happens:
In accordance with current IFRS standards, unlike the former prescribed treatment, the revenue
and costs for the Plomosas operations were required to be included in the Q4 results, even though
it had not yet reached what the Company considered to be normalized production levels. Revenue
from Plomosas for Q4-23 was $0.5 million with costs of $2.1 million. For the period April 3 to
September 30, 2023, the operating costs were capitalized as pre-production costs as there was no
revenue generated during that period. The costs in the fourth quarter are not representative as they
7

include extraordinary costs associated with bringing operations online, as well as extra costs
associated with the ongoing upgrade of the facilities, and repairs and maintenance.
Financials: To be honest I should have realized,
as the same IFRS standard has made Minera
Alamos report its production from Santana and
begin asset capitalization, even though it’s still
not officially in commercial status. The result is a
Plomosas that blows a $1.6m hole in operating
earnings and is nows a significant factor on
balance sheet items, too. As an example (right)
our updated operating earnings chart now shows
what seems to be an ugly quarterly loss due to
the influence of Plomosas. You’ll note that we
still expect IPT to get back to around breakeven
in Q1 and then move into operational profitability in 2q24 and beyond, because the major
influence is still the silver price and the way it will be able to get at least another $5/oz for its
produce going forward, the type of new margin that covers a multitude of sins.
As for the balance sheet items, this change in Plomosas reports goes a long way in explaining
why IPT ran that 17c placement in December to raise C$3.5m…they needs the money to cover
the start-up charges at Plomosas, which has been developed more quickly than I expected.
IPT: Assets breakdown, per qtr
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40 30 20
10
0
Treasury at C$8.27m is not in any danger, but obviously without the C43.5m placement that
would have been too low for comfort coming into 2024 (and at that time, IPT didn’t know
bonanza silver prices were just a quarter away. Also last weekend, our working capital closing
estimate of around C$11m turned out to be C$7.564m as the difference in cash was invested
into the new operation.
However and once again, our model has working cap rising through 2024 as the higher silver
prices work their magic on IPT financials. There are a thousand ways of cutting and slicing the
information and today I offer the most basic of gross margins, the one that IPT runs at its
mines without any interference from Deprecation, Amortization or those pesky corporate G&A
costs.
8
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
C$m IPT: Liabilities breakdown
source: company filings, IKN ests
0.5
5.2
4.4
2.2
3.4
0.2
5.4
4.2
5.3
7.2
9.3
3.2
2.4
3.2
5.4
8.1
1.4
5.2
3.4
1.2
3.4
0.2
6.4
6.2
0.5
0.2
5.5
0.2
4.6
1.6
6.6
9.5
7.7
7.6
5.7
0.6
5.7
0.6
5.6
0.5
16
14
12
10
8
6 4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
IPT: Mine Op Earnings
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
C$m
LT debt
current debt
source: company filings, IKN ests
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
C$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
IPT: Treasury, per qtr
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10
8 6 4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
C$m IPT: Working capital, per qtr
source: company filings, IKN ests
475.3 83.3 837.5
987.61 823.02 239.12 177.22 60.22 25.12 431.12 9.91 595.71 24.61 156.51
213.31 147.8 465.7 8 01 41
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10
8 6 4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
C$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

IPT: Sales vs mine op expenses
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
9
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
C$m
sales
op expenses
source: company filings, IKN ests for 2024
We see the large red spike as reported last week when IPT had to add the $2.1m in Plomosas
start-up costs to the bill, but this year is still set to give us increasing margins. This next chart
shows the simple difference between the sales and op-ex numbers, as seen above:
IPT: Gross mine margin, per qtr
03.0 89.0
60.2
43.1
59.1
23.1 38.0 36.0 60.1 30.0
41.0-
72.0 46.0 09.0 10.0 31.2- 05.0 01.1
05.2 05.2
3
2 1
0
-1
-2
-3
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
C$m
source: company filings, IKN ests for 2024
Unless silver goes really crazy, this company isn’t going to generate King’s Ransoms of profit
but that’s not why we’re here. IPT is in the frame as a cheap, pure play silver company with
operations that will wake up after years of slumber and when it starts posting net profits,
expect its share price to do what it did on several previous occasions.
And that’s when we’ll sell. The bottom line to this update is that the 2023 YE numbers were
substantially different from the house model, but it doesn’t really matter one way or another,
we’re not here waiting for IPT to start paying a
dividend. It may be small but it’s remained financially
solid, even though the hard times of recent years so
there’s plenty of upside left in this stock price, as the
cash only really has one place it can go; to the bottom
line. As long as you are crystal clear that the mina
house trade on silver is SilverCrest(SILV) abocve and
our speculation on IPT is meant to be a risk-reward
supplement that could come good and pay multiples,
we’ll be just fine. Happy holder, bring on the U$30/oz
silver prices.
Stocks to Follow
It was a relatively flat week for mining stocks as the two major forces that play upon them, the
weakness in broad market equities and the strength in metals, pulled in opposite directions and
largely cancelled each other out. As such, seeing just six losers (PGZ.v, WRN.to, CTGO, ERO.to,
OCI.v, PAU.cse) on our table of 17 stocks is good then noting that three of those losers are on
the Watch List makes it even better, as we’re actively happy to see potential trades trade at

lower entry points. Two stocks remained unchanged on the week (MAI.v, MENE.v) and that
leaves nine winners (EQX, RIO.v, SILV, SOLG.to, MARI.to, ADZN.v, NCAU.v, ALDE.v, MIRL.cse)
and with no stocks registering double figure percentage wins on the week, that’s all I have to
say in this week’s segment preamble.
We currently have 17 Stocks to Follow, three fewer than our self-imposed maximum. Ten of
those are in the green, two are unchanged and five are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.305 45.2% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Equinox Gold EQX Hold U$4.42 30-May-23 U$6.00 35.7% will take profits soon(ish)
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.465 -41.9% Momentum now building
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$7.70 11.6% Quality silver/gold producer
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.18 -18.2% (Glad I) avged down Feb'24
Pan Global Res PGZ.v STR BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.215 13.2% Still looks tremendous value
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 14-Jan-24 C$3.69 21.0% Quality Cu developer
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$1.94 23.6% M&A trade,placement annoying
Adventus Mining ADZN.v SPEC BUY C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.43 41.0% Ecuador spec trade working
Contango Ore CTGO STR BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.13 7.6% Production re-rate in Q3
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.21 2.4% Cheap Au in West Africa
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$1.03 43.1% Patience still required
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$27.71 46.3% Hi-quality but no longer cheap
Orecap Inv OCI.v WATCH C$0.065 31-Mar-24 C$0.06 -7.7% Arb on OreGroup hotpots
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.08 -5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.215 -65.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to): As noted above, a good week for our main silver play and as
this ten-day chart of SILV versus the precious metal
sector’s default benchmark (GDX) as well as the main
silver producers’ ETF (SIL) shows, the reaction to the
1q24 production number was universal applause.
SILV doesn’t offer the most leverage to silver-the-metal
going forward because it’s already highly profitable at
current prices and while every dollar added to silver
becomes operating profit from here, it’s a lower
percentage increase compared to a producer that’s been
trying hard to break even at U$25/oz silver and can now
start returning real profits. For that type of more
speculative play you need a different profile…
10

IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): POSITION OPENED: …such as our new and second-string silver
trade, IPT. It so happens that by buying early week at 31.5c I ended up paying too much and
30c was readily available as the week wore on, but I’m still happy enough about my first foot
into IPT. The analysis above also underscores that this trade is less about the past, more about
the future and what silver prices can do for IPT as 2024 rolls out.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): My heart sank when I read this (3):
VANCOUVER, B.C. Western Copper and Gold Corporation (“Western” or the “Company”) (TSX:
WRN; NYSE American: WRN) announces that it has entered into an agreement with Eight
Capital, on behalf of a syndicate of underwriters (the “Underwriters”) under which the
Underwriters have agreed to buy from the Company, on a bought deal basis, 13,158,000 common
shares of the Company (the “Common Shares”) at a price of $1.90 per Common Share for gross
proceeds of $25,000,200 (the “Offering”). The Company has granted the Underwriters an over-
allotment option to purchase up to an additional 1,973,700 Common Shares, representing 15% of
the Offering, to cover over-allotments, if any, and for market stabilization purposes, exercisable at
any time up to 30 days after the closing of the Offering.
There was no shock in reading this the next day, either (4):
VANCOUVER, B.C. Western Copper and Gold Corporation (“Western” or the
“Company”) (TSX: WRN; NYSE American: WRN) is pleased to announce that it has
entered into an amended agreement with Eight Capital, on behalf of a syndicate of
underwriters (the “Underwriters”) under which the Underwriters have agreed to buy
from the Company, on a bought deal basis, 21,055,000 common shares of the
Company (the “Common Shares”) at a price of $1.90 per Common Share for gross
proceeds of $40,004,500 (the “Offering”). The Company has granted the Underwriters
an over-allotment option to purchase up to an additional 3,158,250 Common Shares,
representing 15% of the Offering, to cover over-
allotments, if any, and for market stabilization
220 WRN.to: Shares Out
purposes, exercisable at any time up to 30 days
200
after the closing of the Offering.
180
160
As its dollars to donuts that the overallotment is
140
fully taken, this means the expected share count at 120
100
WRN now looks like this with an IKN estimated 80
190.3m shares out once this financing closes. 60
40
20
So for thoughts and this is a case of cloud and
0
silver lining:
 The cloud: With a guy like Sandeep Singh
coming in, there was always a risk that he’d do a
quasi “friends and family” placement on WRN and allow his very large Rolodex of
contacts the opportunity to buy some shares and get positioned before showtime arrived.
This placement and its upsizing is exactly that and it’s worth reiterating that WRN already
has a healthy cash position and all the budget it needs to do its thing at Casino. This isn’t
about needs, it’s about wants and the price is a significant discount to anything we’ve
seen in the last few weeks.
 The silver lining: We were right to buy when we did. Also, the tacit message of Singh
opening WRN to his chums before showtime is that showtime is close at hand. With NEM
about to report its quarter and Coffee up for sale, the timing of this placement smacks of
M&A action in the works (it’s why he was brought in, after all).
The dilution is an issue and my original penciled-in target of “something above C$3.00” might
have to settle for something at or around C$3.00 for the eventual deal price. We’ll see about
that, but there’s no reason to sell on this news, even though it has wrought a slug of our paper
gains out of our back pockets and put them into those of the well-connected in Canada. Sigh.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): And then, one fine day, our NCAU trade got its head back above
water. I have nothing else to say about it this week that we haven’t said before, it’s still a great
option for those of you seeking cheap and economic gold ounces in a safe zone of West Africa
11
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

and I’m not suddenly going to cash in and walk away just because I’m personally back at
evens, but it is nice to see green ink on that line item for a change. Onward.
Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v): My first reaction to its 6c close this week was that it’s looking
cheap and the right price frame to open a trade. So on checking the tracking table…
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.70 8.18 3.3
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.40 0.04 0.0
ARIC.v 8.33 0.67 5.58 2.3
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.07 0.29 0.1
QCCU.v 5.06 0.14 0.71 0.3
MIS.cse 24.71 0.04 0.99 0.4
subtotal 15.79 6.4
Cuprum 1.475 0.6
subtotal 17.27 7.0
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 18.77 7.6
At 247.714 S/O
…we see the reason for the discount is the drop in Awalé (ARIC.v) and for more on that, see
the TinyCaps Basket below. Still, at a total liquid asset value of 7.6c/share (which, please recall,
does not include its own 100% owned exploration properties) makes 6c a nominal bargain and
even the “shares only” total of 6.4c/share.
The truth is that I’m tempted buy at this price. Here’s why I’m going to wait:
 American Eagle (AE.v) will need a few more weeks for new news
 The Awalé (ARIC.v) drama isn’t over yet and that may drop further than the 67c close. In
fact, I think that only gold rocketing higher will save it from trading back down at the
bought deal level, i.e. 62c.
 OCI has only recently made the 6c level, so seeing it backtest to 5c or so wouldn’t be the
biggest shock in the world
 I have very little money left and while a small bet on this cheap stock is technically
possible, in reality, need to sell something (EQX?) before I buy anything new
 I’m chicken
So I’ll wait and hopefully, my waiting won’t see OCI do what ERO Copper did while I looked for
a correction and entry point.
Adventus Mining (ADZN.v) and SolGold (SOLG.to): Eyes on the referendum result today
Sunday April 21st, which should be with us before this edition is sent. See Regional Politics
below for more anda likely update. In trading, both meandered across the week and rallied on
Friday to register a half cent improvement. Today’s vote matters more.
Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v): We got drill results from its ongoing drill program at Escacena,
with results from the Cañada Honda target that got the company more enthusiastic than the
market. It’s worth combining the NR (5) with the webcast presentation that CEO Tim Moody
gave on the recent results (6), as well as plans for the future because he goes into detail on
why they like what they’re seeing at Cañada Honda and the notable positive differences they’re
detecting in its mineralization compared to the neighbouring deposits, some of which are or
have been worked extensively (it’s mining country here, after all). While we’re at it, this link
takes you to the latest corporate presentation (7). Please see the details in the NR but for what
it’s worth, I think the market is right (so far) and the enthusiasm from the company better be
about the future potential, because so far Cañada Honda is a clear step down in quality from La
Romana.
However, the market reponse to the news was poor and we hardly saw any volume on
Thursday and Friday, the ennui continues in this stock and that’s probably due to its lack of
12

near-term catalysts. CEO Moody reiterated the corporate strategy of waiting on any initial 43-
101 compliant resource until they have a good handle on the western end of La Romana
(where they are drilling at inferred resource spacing) and what the entire deposit holds. They
may publish a 43-101 in 2024 but all signs point to 2025 and in his words, La Romana could be
anything between 20mt and 40mt of mineralization and that leaves a lot of leeway. On top of
that, they’re also toying with the idea of incorporating Cañada Honda into any initial resource
and while that certainly depends on how the 2024 drill campaign goes, it also adds potential
delay to the resource. I get the thinking and in many ways Moody is right, as the day an
exploreco delivers a 43-101 the market then decides “that project is X amount of Y grade
metal” and it’s difficult to get across the “snapshot in time” concept and how things may grow
as exploration continues. However, it means we’re in a fallow period for obvious catalysts and
it’s going to take a great drill number for PGZ to start beating the sector median, especially as it
can’t seem to hold the market’s attention and keep trading volume on a daily basis. That said,
PGzZ is still very cheap compared to what it has, it’s a “serious junior” run by a straight
shooting team and there’s nothing to stop this from moving up with the copper tide; it may be
one of the late movers, but move it will if copper keeps doing what it’s doing.
PS: PGZ is one of the times I wonder if I’m in the right game, as if I went the Paid Influencer
business model this is a stock I’d be happy to pump for cash in the public realm.
Equinox Gold (EQX): I continued to complain under my breath while watching this tape and
at some point, half-jokingly told myself to call sell on the darned thing if it closed Friday under
U$6.00. Sure enough, it closed at exactly U$6.00.
This ten-day chart shows how EQX continues to
under-perform the GDX, when the whole thesis
about holding this stock depends on the high-cash
cost Equinox out-performing at these levels and
making use of that (in)famous leverage to the price
of gold and I need a shower after writing that so
much about this company.
EQX remains the top of my list of potential sales,
the cash it would raise could go to other trades. I’ll
give it another week and see how things go but
don’t be shocked on the day I cash in and take my
money elsewhere, EQX is not one to marry.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The RIO2 placement closed in correct style and bagged the company
excellent (8) “…gross proceeds to the Company of $23,021,700.” That netted C$21.8m for the
company and as its brand new corporate presentation also tells, RIO.v now has this capital
structure
 Shares out: 318.5m
 FD shares: 340m
 Treasury: C$25.3m
All good, though I wouldn’t want that to go much higher. We have to be realistic and half-
expect a final “last call for long-termers” equity financing as part of the final capex package, but
in general terms I’d want as much as possible in the debt package and the final shares total
when Fenix goes free cash flow positive to be under 400m. Anyway, that was the main news
but on Friday we also learned (9) big RIO.v holder Eric Sprott had taken his chunk of the
placement, spending $2m to add 5,128,500 to his holding, now 31,061,871 Shares and around
9.8% of total shares out. That dips him under the 10% barrier (hence the NR Friday) but we
hear that’s no commentary on intentions and simply due to the dilution that came from this
large placement. In other words, Eric Sprott is not going to stealth sell RIO shares.
Next and for what it’s worth, I caught up with RIO.v chair Alex Black and while he oculdn’t give
me a direct answer to my crass and obvious questions, it’s clear the company has been getting
13

on with the job of raising the major part of the capex
for the Fenix build and reading between the lines of
his answers, they’ve clearly solicited term sheets from
interested finance houses and have probably received
some by now. He did mention that the C-suite team is
marketing in Toronto next week, sounds good to me.
We round off with a line on trading in RIO.v, which
continues to be healthy and wwith tradeable volume.
It closed the week at its highest price since the sad
and bad days of the original permit denial in June and
July 2022. They tell me gaps always fill…
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): I’ve waited to comment on MARI for a couple of weeks,
because it’s only fair to give the company some credit for its recent gains and I for one am a
happy holder, thanks largely to my cost average.
However, this chart (right) compares MARI to
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) from January 14th
2024, the date of IKN765 when I announced my sale
of ARG and used some of the raised funds to buy
MARI and start this position. See that edition for
more and the rationale, but the simple visual above
tells us all that my decision was a mistake. That
despite the gains in MARI and with the application of
some of that 20:20 hindsight, there are two main
reasons:
 I sold ARG because copper was having trouble
getting over the key U$4.00/lb price line and that
matters to ARG because its clear cash flow model and returns policy tells us that the
company would be able to re-start its share buybacks at 4-handle copper prices, as well
as put cash aside for one of those long-promised bonus dividends that would top up its
strong 3c/quarter standard policy. So with copper doing what it’s done in the last four
week, ARG has become a sought after investment and its price run is fully justified.
 Meanwhile, we always understood that 2024 was going to be a relatively quiet year news-
wise for MARI, as the company focus is all about definition and infill drilling in order to
prepare the full bankable feasibility study, which should come up on the horizon at the end
of the year. Indeed, we got a NR from the company on Monday (10), “Marimaca Copper
Project Development and Exploration Update” of the “hi we’re here and working hard and
doing all these things” variety that doesn’t move the market, but helps assuage any antsy
holders. The spotlight has been off MARI in the last few weeks and while other copper plays
have bounced hard from the rise in the metal, this one has been quiet.
MARI was not one of the open positions I added to a couple of weeks ago, its trading is thin
and I’m good about giving it time, space and patience. My mistake was selling ARG in order to
buy it, that’s nothing to do with this excellent junior and all to do with my bad ideas.
The Copper Basket
After sixteen weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 15.40% to level stakes:
14

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1681.42 9.00 25.7%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 179.221 806.49 4.50 9.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 343.58 3.69 7.6%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 315.97 10.70 -9.3%
5 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 187.11 0.81 -41.3%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 174.91 1.03 15.7%
7 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 152.84 1.40 -20.0%
8 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 222.86 144.86 0.65 73.3%
9 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 175.97 137.26 0.78 23.8%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 108.87 76.21 0.70 169.2%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 38.36 0.60 3.4%
12 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 24.75 0.40 -34.4%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 24.32 0.14 16.7%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 17.53 0.165 -8.3%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 14.47 0.070 0.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 15.40%
A new 2024 high for our basket of 15 explorecos, The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
20%
but it was nowhere near a blowout move, as the 18%
16%
average increase by just 0.07% despite the
14%
continued bull run in copper-the-metal. And that’s 12%
10%
interesting. There was a reasonably balanced 8%
6%
headcount too, with seven winners on the week 4%
(MARI.to, ALDE.v, FDY.to, AE.v, QCCU.v, ECU.v, 2%
0%
COR.v), two unchanged (LA.v, BUG.v) and six -2%
-4%
losers (NGEX.to, SLS.to, ASCU.to, OCO.v, CCCM.v, -6%
KDK.v) and they included larger percentage
losses, so see (KDK.v down 13.0%), Arizona
Sonoran (ASCU.to down 9.7%) and Solaris
(SLS.to down 8.9%) for the pain.
To the upside, the only big mover was
Faraday (FDY.to up 16.4%). Overall, an
oddly subdued week for this sub-sector
when you compare it to this chart (right).
I’ve scribbled in red on the chart to show
the U$4.00/lb line and the place where 1)
copper finally broke The Four Line in style
after toying with the idea in late 2023 and
early this year, then 2) where it back-
tested the move in near-textbook style
just before Easter and 3), the most
impressive move that has continued from
then until this weekend, virtually non-
stop. Or if you like, in step one you find a
metal you love, step twothe market falls in love with the metal, step three they kiss and hold
each other tightly. With apologies to Eddie Cochran, that sure seems like heaven to me.
However, this week we sound a clear word of warning, as all signs point to the way this latest
phase of the bull run is being driven by fund managers piling on to what they see as a good
thing, the type of move that has the LME trading pits licking their lips about near-term gains. A
lot of the bullish momentum came from the atmosphere at CRU/CESCO Week in Santiago last
week, where Goldman Sachs told the assembled good and great (11) that copper prices are
only in “the foothills of what will be its Everest." Add to that the comments from one of the star
15
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs

keynote speakers, Trafigura Group CEO Jeremy Weir, who said (12) that the supply gap is set
to grow to 8m tonnes in the next ten years compared to this year’s production and that “In
order to fill a potential supply gap of 8 million tons by 2034, mining companies need prices that
are higher than $10,000 a ton and possibly as high as $12,000.” That also went down well with
the money movers in attendance.
Meanwhile, conference hosts CRU looked to the long-term and even after predicting
replacements for copper in some typical products such as wiring and piping, demand for the
metal is set to move up at an average of 1.85% per annum from now to 2040, and Citi
published a paper which included this”
“Funds have driven copper up to ~$9,500/t (+~20% since late November), on early signs of global
reflation and in anticipation of physical deficits. Pure-play copper equities, which are even more
forward-looking, have moved up to a price of $10.5k-12.5k/t copper into perpetuity, suggesting that
there is further room for forward-looking investors to take the commodity price higher. Indeed, pure-
play equity-implied copper prices are consistent with our view that we have entered the second
secular copper bull market this century.”
All that made the market one-way traffic and the LME once again traded very heavy volume
after hitting a six year open interest record the week before last (13). So please be careful out
there, we’re less than a week and a half from the close of May contracts and there may be a
correction in the pipeline before we go any higher. Certainly not complaining about near-
U$4.50/lb copper but it’s telling that the juniors didn’t run with copper, there’s also fundy
evidence suggesting that this is market-based and not about real world demand.. For more on
that see below and the inventories update, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest copper is
overbought in the near-term, fueled by the CRU conference whipping dumb money (ironically,
the instos consider themselves the smart money) charging into the space on the latest round of
gung-ho bullish rhetoric.
It’s time for our regular copper inventory data segment, data from Chilean copper beancounters
Cochilco.
 The aggregate of the three official inventory systems total 446,896 metric tonnes (mt)
this weekend, that’s down 3,558mt on the week. A small move, but there’s a surprise
or two under the headline number.
 The first surprise comes from the Shanghai SHFE, which has quietly floated up to
300,045mt, only 322my more than last weekend but enough to break that
psychologically important (as they say) line. More on the trend below, under its
dedicated chart.
 The other surprise, is at the LME, which again saw a small draw down of 2,300mt to
close the week at 122,125mt but under that, we note the continued exit of copper
inventory at its Roach Motel, the New Orleans warehouse. Down another 3,375mt on
the week, stocks there are down to 19,325mt and that means they’ve dropped a cool
48,700mt in 2024 YTD. There’s something going on here and it cannot be put down to
speculation on copper prices
 Another week-over-week drop at the Comex, with 1,580mt leaving to add to the North
American inventory drawdown we’ve noted at LME NO above. Comex stocks are down
to 24,726mt.
The dedicated SHFE chart this week shows how it’s getting difficult to call its seasonal spike a
spike, because we need to to start dropping at some point. Ignore the madness of the Covid
crisis and this is the highest SHFE stocks have been since 2018, so we continue to be faced
with data telling up copper’s recent rocket rise is all about financial market speculation and
nothing to do with supply squeezes or demand that those Chinese smelters cannot cover, no
matter how little concentrate is apparently entering the country.
16

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on some of our basket stocks:
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): On Tuesday SLS announced its new full NYSE listing (14):
April 16, 2024 – Vancouver, B.C. – Solaris Resources Inc. (TSX: SLS; OTCQB: SLSSF) (“Solaris”
or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has received approval to list its common shares
on the NYSE American LLC (“NYSE American”) with trading expected to commence on Friday,
April 19, 2024 under the symbol “SLSR”. The Company will remain listed on the Toronto Stock
Exchange under the symbol “SLS”.
Which may be the reason it traded so badly last week, as shorting stocks is a lot easier via a US
listing than a Canadian. No matter how it tries to paper over the cracks in its CSR edifice, for
example in the company’s other NR last week (8) that announced an updated agreement with
the local community, the same one in conflict with the larger and legal indigenous authority
that governs the region, the permitting issues at Warintza are not going away.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) and Faraday Copper (FDY.to): Just two weekends ago in
IKN777 dated April 7th we ran this chart…
THAT WAS THEN…
…that pitted ASCU and FDY next to the main copper producers’ ETF (COPX) and spot copper
(HG00), noting that both had underperformed the market but ASCU had recently caught a bid,
while FDY remained UNCH and largely unloved. Here’s the update of the same YTD chart with
the four squiggly lines:
…BUT THIS IS NOW

What a difference a fortnight makes. In IKN777 I suggested in very simplistic style that FDY
may be worth a spec trade because for the simple reason that it was lagging its near(ish)
neighbour and fellow exploreco in AZ USA, as things turned out the pair trade would have been
even more potent than buying FDY alone.
The other difference between these stocks, which I’ve mentioned on several occasions already
but merits reiteration, is the sheer amount of sell side analysts, market influencers and high
traffic newsletters that have been pushing ASCU to their client base for over two years. It’s one
thing to get passive “buy” ratings from brokerages and newsletter writers, quite another to
witness how hard these shares get actively pushed by a range of well-known industry
commentators, then watch as its share price gets whacked over and again by sellers coming
out of the woodwork on no news and this latest episode, directly in the face of a copper run to
almost U$4.50/lb, is the most suspicious looking of them all. We on the outside will never know
all the details but then again, we don’t have to; it’s easy to avoid stocks like ASCU when your
gut tells you something isn’t right.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): The the ginger haired cousin of Discovery Group, KDK perked up at
the start of the month and finally found a few buyers as bargain hunters screened the sector
looking for cheap and/or beaten up copper names. Last week saw those looking to exit do just
that and we have a new set of bagholders.
If that sounds brutal and divorced from the world of
exploration, that’s good; it’s supposed to
underscore that KDK’s recent move was speculative
and driven by people buying into the “cheap copper
here” narrative and a new round of promotion. We
remind readers how KDK tried to get some reflected
glory from Chair Chris Wilson, the man behind the
massive success at Great Bear (ex-GBR), who
spearheaded KDK’s PDAC marketing by sitting in
with CEO Tornquist and taking over the
conversations. We also remind readers that after its
initial drill assay discovery hole that set this stock alight in late 2020, KDK has failed to deliver
on the initial promise and its share price decadence is perfectly logical.
The Producer Basket
After 16 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 13.48% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 44.97 39.02 -5.7%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 31.79 63.84 16.4%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 30.03 17.10 -5.5%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 23.34 121.47 9.6%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 6.95 19.07 16.8%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 3.47 14.62 15.7%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.28 5.31 10.4%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.05 15.04 16.0%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.44 7.84 21.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.21 8.12 39.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 13.48%
18

Before we get started, there was an error in last week’s table and due to putting in the wrong
closing price for Dundee Precious Metals (DPMLF) our overall average was just over 1% lower
than it should have been. We’ve fixed that typo now.
So to the week and our basket managed to out-perform the GDX benchmark, though you’d
hardly believe gold was trading at U$2,400/oz and near-record prices from the looks of six
winners (NEM, AEM, FNV, LUGDF, DPMLF, WDOFF) and four losers (GOLD, PAAS, HL, EGO) on
the week and an overall modest gain. The only decent move came from Lundin gold (LUGDF up
9.6%) and that was on its own newsflow, while the loss taken by Barrick (GOLD down 4.3%)
was particularly disappointing for both it and sector sentiment. We note again that Agnico has
taken over that second spot in the Market Cap league table, only this time due to its rally and
Barrick’s dump there’s a chunkier U$1.75Bn between them.
We’re back with our big lead over GDX with nearly four months booked in 2024 and my, doesn’t
time fly.
Barrick Gold (GOLD): As is its wont, on Tuesday morning GOLD pre-announced its quarterly
production and preliminary sales data (8) and here’s the chart we use to keep tabs on its
quarterly development, for sales of gold:
Barrick (GOLD): Segment sales, per qtr
19
825 225 245 245 884 554 584 116 854 364 424 115 114 854 084 115 424
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
16% comparative to GDX control
12%
8%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
Nevada GM Loulo-Gounkoto
Pueblo Viejo Kibali
North Mara Veladero
Bulyanhulu Tongon
Au Koz
Hemlo Buzwagi
1300 Porgera
1200
source: company filings
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300 200
100
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23 1q24
At 911koz sold (above) and 940k oz produced, that’s a big drop compared to previous quarters
and the supposed production increases after the
Nevada Gold Mines infrastructure upgrades in the
second half of 2023 are conspicuous by their
absence. Here’s how the stock reacted to the
news (right) and I for one cannot blame the
sellers, it’s getting to be a bad habit at GOLD but
as we pointed out on Twitter that day (8), nither
does Barrick seem to be bothered about covering
up its mediocrity these days. Back in April 2023 on
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
1.0%
ikn 0.5%
gdx control 0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
source: IKN calcs -4.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

announcing last year’s Q1 production, the company went with this headline:
This week it went with this headline:
The only change, a single number to move 2023 to 2024. What’s more, please note that when
GOLD said it was “On Track” in 2023, that referred to its annual guidance of between 420,000
and 460,000, only to end the year producing just 405,000 oz. Let’s see how “on track” 2024
turns out to be, but last week from Barrick was mediocre and the company fully deserved to be
marked down, U$2,400/oz gold or not.
Newmont (NEM): A big week for this company and the PM sector, as NEM reports both
production and financials before the open on Thursday, April 25 (15). Reasons to be vigilant:
 This is a big one for costs, and numbernerds such as this desk will be poring over
the data
 The first truly integrated quarter since the Newcrest merger
 We’ll be on the lookout for any dispersal announcements on the non-core assets
NEM has put on its sales list.
We also offer a word of warning, as Barrick pre-releases its quarterly production numbers but
Newmont doesn’t. The relationship may
have been watered down by the Barrick (GOLD): The Newmont JVs
incorporation of Newcrest into the NEM 800
story, but we’ve seen on many occasions 700
113
in the last couple of years that when 600 144 115 129 153 141 125 96 89
Barrick reports a soft quarter, so does 500 118 104 102124 79 77
90 82
NEM. The companies share both Nevada 400
Gold Mines and the Pueblo Viejo mine in 300 611
Dominican Republic and here’s how 200 528 522 542 542 488 455 485 458 463 424 511 411 458 480 511 424
Barrick reported those specific mines last 100
week, in comparison with previous 0
quarters. NEM traded almost lockstep
with the GDX last week, we’ll see if that
holds when it reports.
Lundin Gold (LUG.to): Potentially game-changing news from LUG last week, when on
Wednesday evening it published this (16) NR with a long list of drill holes from its ongoing
exploration program at and around the Fruta del Norte deposit. Some interesting hits on the
periphery of the current deposit are good news and may help to increase the resource count
and eventual mine life, but the really good news came from one of its main exploration sites,
known as “Bonza” and located around 1km from the mine and current resource. Here’s the
hole:
Drill hole BLP-2024-101 (at Bonza Sur) intersected 32.31 grams per tonne ("g/t") of gold ("Au") over
14.50m from 74.0 m, including 442.16 g/t Au over 1.0 m
20
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
Pueblo Viejo Au Koz
Nevada GM
source: company filings

You need to spend time with the entire NR, there’s a lot of information published as well as
useful maps and tables (we go with just one here). It’s only one hole of several in the area our
chosen map shows, but it’s very significant and could be the key to unlocking the area
exploration potential. FDN is set in a pull-apart basin, they are fiendishly difficult to interpret
and therefore chase new targets, but geologists know that if FDN exists, its sibling may well be
in the same locality but it’s often needle-in-haystack searching and in this case, many
companies have tried and failed to return a good nearology drill cut. Therefore, this result from
the Bonza zone hole 2024-101 is a clear improvement with the moderate results to date. You
can be sure the next phase of drilling concentrates around that zone to attempt to expand this
high grading resource and if LUG were successful, it would address the main weak point of this
company’s story, the lack of long-term resources and reserves.
As such, it was zero surprise to see LUG rally the way it did on this news:
The stock was already beating the street early week before the news hit and boosted its run, as
from Thursday. That may have been jungledrums but equally, we’d identified LUG as trading at
“a likeable price for this quality company” last weekend in IKN778, on the back of its decent
1q24 production numbers. That turned out to be so and a 9.6% gain on a largely flat week for
the PM sector is a good result.
21

The TinyCaps List
After 16 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 67.38% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 221.5 28.80 0.13 100.0%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 67.27 45.07 0.67 396.3%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 40.12 0.375 120.6%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 24.77 0.165 -8.3%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 9.75 0.11 10.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 7.50 0.105 40.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 8.91 0.125 -3.8%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 27.33 0.56 -25.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 219.21 25.21 0.115 27.8%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 16.57 0.14 16.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 67.38%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
After a week that saw three winners (EDG.v, STS.v,
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
VAU.v), two unchanged stocks (DMX.v, LMS.v) and 100%
90%
five losers (BAY.v, ARIC.v, KLDC.v, PA.v, SURG.v) the 80%
basket average dropped by 13.63%, a big correction 70%
60%
coming after its big run with the main reason for
50%
both the up and the down the same stock, Awalé 40%
30%
Resources (ARIC.v). More on that below, but aside
20%
the drop in Awalé (ARIC.v down 16.3%) we also saw 10%
0%
larger percentage drops in Surge Copper (SURG.v
down 14.8%), Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v down 12.0%)
and Palamina Corp (PA.v down 10.7%).
Surge Copper (SURG.v): The 13.5c we ticked last weekend wasn’t the top of its move, as
first thing Monday SURG…errr…surged to 16c before the buyers dried up (perhaps some
newsletter reco, perhaps a fat finger) and the stock seems to have found a more sensible
baseline. So 11.5c this weekend but that’s nothing to sniff at for a stock that sold for a constant
8c all Q1 and even touched 7c at its low. The deal bringing in ARM as strategic has been a
resounding success and SURG has a more reasonable baseline level from which it can now
build. Good for them, I wish the team luck and will watch closely.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): From “big winner” to a hefty percentage loss and focus of
Canadian market shenanigans in the space of one week, ARIC caused plenty of virtual ink to be
spilled when it announced (17) a bought deal financing priced at 62c per unit (unit = share plus
half warrant priced at 80c). With a slight adjustment announced the next day, the entire deal
includes a basic 16.13m units, then 2.42m units on overallotment, then participation rights held
by Newmont for another 3.99m units. We can safely assume that overallotment is used and I
22
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

cannot see NEM passing up its rights, so ARIC is about to sell 22.54m units at 62c for gross
proceeds of C$13.97m…let’s call it 14. So far so good, but now for the drama as for one thing…
…ARIC.v has been trading well above that 62c number (even before we consider the half
warrant). For another, it became apparent soon after that the ARIC board had refused an offer
to run a placement financing at 80c, only to agree to a 62c deal days later. For yet another,
ARIC chair Robin Birchall is closely connected to Canaccord, the brokers now running this
bought deal and to place the cherry firmly on top of this sordid cake…
…just hours before the deal was announced three company insiders didn’t simply file insider
sales, but they late filed them. Chair Robin Birchill exercised 200k of his 12c options and
liquidated them all for a gross profit of $140,600, CEO Andrew Chubb sold 298,400 shares at
83.5c for a $249,164payout and Derk Hartmann joined the fun, selling 100k of his own shares
at 83.5c for gross proceeds of C$83,500.
Unsurprisingly, shareholders were up in arms about this sequence of events and we’d also be
unshocked to learn of friction inside the company. The other issue is that with a company Chair
apparently willing to squeeze his own shareholders for a quick monetary gain, we now know
this mindset will be willing and able to run this sort of malarkey again. However, we need to be
clear-eyed about this as by the time this placement closes and assuming this weekend’s 67c
share price holds, ARIC will be a C$60m market capper with a full treasury and an excellent
project on which to work, that compares to the C$9.08m market cap at which it began 2024.
Market sharks exist and Robin Birchill already has a reputation as being one of them, the people
who will screw their shareholders over without a moment’s thought as they collect enough cash
for their second speedboat. It makes ARIC a riskier proposition for we retail grunts and anyone
buying into this story from here on in cannot claim ignorance, but when push comes to shove
ARIC has a real chance of developing a truly world class resource at Odienné in conjunction
with NEM (who is paying most of the bills), even before it starts spending its own treasury on
those interesting regional targets on its 100% owned concession areas. Personally speaking,
this hasn’t put me off the opportunity that comes from owning a piece of this story via a
speculative position in Orecap (OCI.v, on Watch List above) as it means that Stephen Stewart
and his team has to worry about Birchill and his games more than I would have to. However, I
23

fully sympathize with those ARIC holders caught in last week’s downturn, they’ve been dealt a
dirty hand and they’re right to kick up a fuss. Hopefully, the rather naïve looking CEO of ARIC
may have learned a lesson and will side with the people who pay his salary next time, rather
than get rolled over by his “friend” the Chair. I’ll leave you with one of Peter Lynch’s oft-
repeated quotes:
“Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they
think the price will rise.”
Palamina Corp (PA.v): PA has spent the last two years doing this:
Which makes the current price interesting, considering what’s been happening to gold recently
and that PA will finally drill one of its preferred targets on its flagship property. Drill plays are
always very speculative and the risk is as high as it comes in our game, but it would only take
one hole…
I’m tempted, must say. There are a lot of majors watching the Puno Orogenic belt (their name,
not mine) for its geological potential, though there’s probably time before I need to open a
position as we hear the drills won’t start turning before Q3. There’s prep work to do and a road
to put into the target before the rigs can turn up. Watching very closely because at under $10m
market cap, all the money it needs to explore, a good team and a good project, this is the right
combo to balance the risk of buying before, rather than after assay results.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: A success for Noboa and a problem for mining
Today saw the the “Popular Consultancy” in Ecuador, i.e. the referendum called by President
Daniel Noboa that consists of 11 questions, put to the people of Ecuador, that would allow him
to advance his agenda. The turnout was good at 72%, which means around 9.8m Ecuadorians
went to the polls and voted and while we don’t have the official results of all eleven questions,
the country’s CNE electoral body has announced the fast count numbers which are “withing one
percent” of the final numbers. Here’s an extract (translated) from this report on the recently
held presser (18):
The president of the CNE stated that the fast count, with a margin of error of 1%, has
shown results indicating that Noboa has won in nine of the eleven questions with an
average support of 65% in those questions. However, the “No” result won out in the
question regarding the change in work contracts and international arbitration, with
64.88% and 68.83% respectively.”
This is a problem for FDI in Ecuador and therefore mining. Most of the questions posed in the
referendum concerned the combating of the crime wave in Ecuador, driven by narcotrafficking
groups and illegal mining gangs, which has seen Ecuador’s homicide rate move up to 45 per
24

100,000, now one of the highest in Latin America. Sure enough, all questions regarding this
core policy move were voted up and this means Noboa has new powers to extradite criminals,
to use the military on the streets and other matters to facilitate the forces of law and order.
However, the question that most concerned the mining industry and the item Noboa promised
to deliver to those companies looking to invest in the country (e.g. while at PDAC in March), the
one that would have seen Ecuador come again under the auspices of international arbitration
tribunals, was rejected by a vote of over 2 to 1 against.
We reported a couple of weeks ago that Noboa’s attempt to force through popular consultancy
hearings at the La Plata project (Atico Mining) had raised the ire of indigenous pressure group
CONAIE, who from that moment vowed to campaign against the referendum. What’s clear is
most of the groups in CONAIE were good about tightening up security measures and fighting
crime, so the leaderrs focusxed efforts on the two questions that stood out as not part of the
security measures and sure enough, the one that would have helped the mining industry is the
one that got the biggest rejection.
This will now leave many projects in the same limbo as before. While it’s less of a concern for
the trade I have open in Advantus (ADZN.v), with its permits already awarded and its
comparatively modest financing package well on the way to being finalized, this reversal for
Noboa is a bigger issues for the big ticket capex required to move SolGold at Cascabel forward
and as a result, I may have to dump this trade. I’m going to give it this week to see how the
market reacts and make a decision for IKN781, next weekend. What this does underscore is a
message that these pages repeat, time and again: CONAIE is a force to be reckoned with.
Argentina: The new Mining Secretary makes the right impression
Last week the newly appointed Mining Secretary (Minisgter in all but name) of Argentina, Luis
Lucero, had his first official engagement in his new role whenmeeting with officials from the
country’s Chamber of Mining (CAEM) as well as representatives from the mining industry private
sector (19). He made a good impression too, by all accounts. The top of his agenda was to
present two members of his new team, namely one Carlos Cuburu as Sub-Secretary of Mining
Policy and one Julio Bruna Novillo as President of the Mining Geology Service. Of the two, Señor
Cuburu is the most interesting as he has deep experience in the sector and is a legal specialist
on FDI and how to position Argentina to attract foreign companies to the country. That Lucero
has brought in someone to cover that particular angle from his Day One is a positive sign for
things to come.
As for the other attendees, the host was CAEM President Roberto Cacciola and the mining world
was represented by Ignacio Costa of Arcadium, who represented the lithium sector, Alfredo
Vitaller of Josemaría for the copper sector and Verónica Nohara of Minera Don Nicolás (i.e.
Cerrado Gold) for precious metals.
Aside the presentation of his new team, the agenda included items that most concern the
mining companies, including the need to boost exploration, tax incentives and permitting fast
track for large scale mining projects.
Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum talks mining
In IKN777 and the note “Parsing Sheinbaum on mining”, we took a closer look at the
declarations to date from the now hot favourite to become Mexico’s next President, Claudia
Sheinbaum, and after considering the piece came to this conclusion:
Putting it all together, there’s a distinct impression that she’s ready to back away from the more
stridently anti-mining position taken by AMLO. For sure you’re not going to hear that before the
vote, she’s not going to upset her mentor AMLO or the party line, but and if she wants to comply
with the key points of 1) promoting the energy transition and 2) making Mexico self-sufficient on
energy matters it means by definition she must allow mining to move forward. Her policy positions
for a greener future and for giving the right of decision to locals fit in with the Morena policy, but
there are clear gaps and differences with the current “No Permits For Anybody” AMLO government
and as being vague is its own message, that’s good. The bottom line, and something Mexico’s
25

mining world (i.e. CAMIMEX Chamber of Commerce) will know well, is that she cannot expect to
promote a greener future and a self-sufficient Mexico if mining is stopped from happening. Those
are clear policy points and the the implication of (community approved) permits once she is in
power is a logical conclusion (8) (8).
That fits closely with what we heard last week. On Tuesday she arrived in the State of Sonora
as part of her campaign trail and as that’s prime mining country, went into some detsil about
her policy plans for the sector. There were plenty of Spanish language reports on the presser
and declarations but luckily for me, Ms. Paloma Duran of Mexico Business News also covered
the event in English and did a very good job with the report (20), so all I have to do here is
some copypaste instead of translation:
MORENA candidate Claudia Sheinbaum announced plans to enhance the extraction of strategic
minerals such as lithium and copper to support the production of electric vehicles (EVs) if she
assumes the presidency.
Mexico’s lithium reserves are mainly found in clay formations, which makes the extraction process
complex, time-consuming, and costly. Sheinbaum revealed that the Mexican Petroleum Institute
(IMP), made up of the country's best geologists and geophysicists, is developing a new technology
to extract lithium from clay and that she will continue to support this venture once she becomes
president.
"Lithium reserves in Sonora and other parts of the country are embedded in clay, which demands
technology for extraction and utilization that is just starting to develop. We have worked and visited
other countries where they have developed it, and we will continue to work on it," Sheinbaum said.
While underscoring lithium's importance for EVs, Sheinbaum also highlighted the critical role of
copper in their production. "The goal is to develop from primary production to electric vehicle
development. There are advances and it will be our task to continue them," she affirmed.
IKN779 back and a couple of interesting angles show from Sheinbaum’s prepared speech.
Firstly, we know she’s not a full-blown mining expert so the way she talked up how most of
Mexico’s lithium resources are clay hosted means she’s getting advised by experts on the
sector…that’s good. Secondly, her comments on copper will come as a soujd for sore ears as
that can only mean she plans to allow open pit mining permits, as there’s no other way of
seeing Mexico improve its copper production base. Finally, her focus on the Energy Transition
metals is a leaf straight out of the Argentina playbook, where the pro-minng lobby in both the
Fernandez and Milei governments have seen public opinion move away from the anti-mine
Greenpeace types and toward the economic expansion that mining offers because these days, it
comes with the greener future narrative. Overall, what Sheinbaum said last week fits very
closely with our call on her likely mining policy a couple of weeks ago. So to recap and
highlight, expect the following:
 No new concessions for open pit mining
 Prior consultancy with locals to become the norm for permitting
 Open pit mines to start seeing permits flow again, as long as locals are onside
 The government will still block controversial projects.
All in all, a lot better than the last couple of years under AMLO.
Market Watching
Next week
Nothing to say today. I’m lazy, sorry.
Conclusion
IKN779 is done, we end with bullet points:
 The Ecuador referendum result today is a potential cloud on the mining companies in
the country that need large scale capital to move forward. As such, it may be time for
me to throw in the towel on SolGold, but I’m good about letting the Adventus trade
26

carry on as that has permits and won’t lack for capex cash. I’m going to cogitate on
SOLG and see how things are this time next weekend.
 Happy with the SilverCrest trade to date and the 1q24 production numbers really hit
the spot. However, I’m close to the end of my tether with Equinox and that might see
the door next weekend, too.
 Our little girl turned one month old today. Amazing how time flies.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/2024/index.php?content_id=536
(2) https://impactsilver.com/investors/news/impact-silver-announces-full-year-2023-results-revenue-increased-27-to-
20.7-million/
(3) https://www.westerncopperandgold.com/news-and-resources/news-release/western-copper-and-gold-announces-
25-million-bought-deal-public-offering/
(4) https://www.westerncopperandgold.com/news-and-resources/news-release/western-copper-and-gold-announces-
upsize-in-bought-deal-public-offering-to-40000000/
(5) https://www.panglobalresources.com/news/pan-global-intersects-11-meters-at-2-36g-t-gold-and-22-meters-at-0-41-
copper-expanding-canada-honda-copper-gold-discovery-spain
(6) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7h6oHvHTFg&feature=youtu.be
(7) https://assets-global.website-files.com/63e904921eb4adc55bebeffb/6622a522fbeb814b6ae323a4_2024-04-
18_Pan%20Global%20Resources_Investor%20Presentation_FINAL.pdf
(8) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-closes-c-23m-offering
(9) https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/eric-sprott-announces-changes-to-his-holdings-in-rio2
(10) https://marimaca.com/marimaca-copper-project-development-and-exploration-update/
(11) https://www.forexlive.com/news/copper-the-foothills-of-what-will-be-its-everest-goldman-sachs-20240418/
(12) https://www.mining.com/web/trafigura-ceo-says-copper-must-surpass-10000-to-meet-demand/
(13) https://www.lme.com/en/metals/non-ferrous/lme-copper#Volume+and+open+interest
(14) https://www.solarisresources.com/news/press-releases/solaris-resources-to-commence-trading-on-nyse-american-
under-slsr
(15) https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2024/Newmont-Announces-First-Quarter-2024-
Earnings-Conference-Call/default.aspx
(16) https://lundingold.com/news/lundin-gold-reports-discovery-of-a-new-high-grade-122763/
(17) https://awaleresources.ca/2024/04/17/awale-announces-c10-million-bought-deal-private-placement-of-units/
(18) https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2024/04/21/en-vivo-las-autoridades-de-ecuador-inauguraron-la-
jornada-electoral-en-un-clima-de-maxima-tension/
(19) https://www.ambito.com/energia/luis-lucero-recibio-la-cupula-caem-todos-los-detalles-del-encuentro-minero-
n5984250
(20) https://mexicobusiness.news/mining/news/sheinbaum-promote-lithium-evs-0
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
27

CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
28

Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
29

Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
30

Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
31