IKN #778Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 778, April 14th 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, How high can silver go?
Fundamental Analysis: Buying IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): Every dog has its day.
Stocks to Follow: Additions to several positions, IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), Adventus Mining
(ADZN.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Orecap (OCI.v), Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v), Equinox Gold (EQX).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Faraday Copper (FDY.to),
Hercules Silver (BIG.v), Camino Minerals (COR.v), Los Andes Copper (LA.v).
The Producer Basket: Pan American Silver (PAAS), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), Lundin
Gold (LUG.to) (LUGDF), Hecla (HL).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Awalé (ARIC.v), Surge Copper (SURG.v), Viva Gold (VAU.v).
Regional Politics: Chile: CESCO Week, Ecuador: Noboa plays up his image, More Ecuador:
Violence against pro-Solaris locals, Argentina: San Juan’s new governor has read the memo,
Mexico: Sheinbaum still hot favourite.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m a buyer of IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) this week, it offers a great entry point with silver doing
what it’s now doing. Details in today’s main fundies section.
In today’s edition
 Every year seems to get a “Silver Edition”, IKN778 has been chosen as its 2024
candidate. We’ve gone over the data and arguments for and against silver as a trade
on several previous occasions, so today’s intro tries to encapsulate the main points in
narrative form and we also dare to pout forward a price target for the weeks to come.
Plenty of caveats, though.
 And today’s main event opens a trade in IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), the type of small but
leveraged trade on silver-the-metal that can run hard and fast if all the pieces fall into
place at the right time. It’s speculative and designed as a risky second string to our
silver exposure that complements the main trade SilverCrest (SILV), but it’s also a risk
that can return excellent rewards if things go well. And what could possibly go wrong?
 In the Stocks to Follow section we run over the list of stocks that saw share adds last
week (as per IKN777), plus a quick thought or two about the impressive reaction to
Rio2 Ltd’s (RIO.v) financing news last week. The market suddenly likee that stock, the
game is afoot.
 Perhaps the most active and interesting sub-sector of the market today is the big
producer stocks and though it’s not the real remit of The IKN Weekly, the Producer
Basket gets to cover the events of a handful of those. Lundin Gold (LUG) and Eldorado
(EGO) continue to look like interesting investment options, Pan American (PAAS) and
Hecla (HL) less so. In another world I’d be a sell side analyst with time to dig deep and
cover these bigger, multi asset stocks more carefully and I’d probably enjoy it, too.
1

How high can silver go?
With that title, I manage to pack two pet peeves into one:
 Title lines that use question marks.
 For some reason I’m contractually obliged to make one prediction or call on the price of
silver every year and by the looks of my mailbox this week, it’s today. This is a pet peeve
because it’s a hiding to nothing even at the best of times; Not only does silver make gold
look predictable, but it seems to appeal to our darker sides as metals and mining sector
participants. The Jekyll & Hyde metal attracts the most hyperbole, it’s the drug of choice
for the circus barker and snake oil salespeople who hang around on social media, and the
perfect vehicle for sector sharks who are looking to transfer wealth from the pockets of
the unwary and green to their own.
However, this chart (right) demands attention and as I’ve
recently opened one trade focused squarely on The Devil’s
Own Metal (SilverCrest SILV) and today announce another
(IMPACT IPT.v), it’s only right to lay down a few words.
Both gold and silver have been constructive in 2024 and
through March, gold took the lead for the whole metals
sector, not just the PMs. But the last two weeks have seen
silver catch-up and then run faster than its bigger sibling,
which is exactly what its proponents demand of the
cheaper, more abundant, volatile and leveraged of the
two. So April has seen silver finally running well but all the
same, I’m not the person you want to rah-rah silver To Da Moon. You can quote all the Chinese
solar panel stats you want, but there’s more to silver price discovery that repeating some
isolated factoid you found on Twitter (should I say X these days?).
Supply: As 70% of silver is mined as a by-product and most of that from the massive porphyry
copper mines that treat it as a small by-product credit (or have already sold most of it forward
as a stream to FNV or WPM), the cost of production of most supply is tiny compared to its spot
market price. That prices out a lot of the marginal supply and means big and expensive silver
mines stay on the sidelines, ready to come online if the price rises enough. A case in point is
Bear Creek’s Corani project, which these days needs at least U$26/oz spot silver to make
reasonable returns. Today we have U$28/oz and that’s good, it’s why BCM shares have rallied
the way they have recently, but that mine needs 20 years of high prices, not 20 days. Corani
and other projects like it remain on the sidelines because the abundance of very cheap silver
depresses long-term spot prices and leaves latent supply on the sidelines.
Demand: We know roughly 50% of silver is used for industrial purposes, be that solar panels,
high conductivity connectors in your phone or whatever else (and who remembers the days
when Kodak was one of the world’s biggest buyers?). The other half goes into either
jewelry/artifacts or is sold as bullion or coinage. This is part of its Jekyll/Hyde personality, as it’s
half commodity (copper, tin) and half precious metal (gold) and indeed, acts that way. This is
why the gold/silver ratio is a tried and tested method to gauge the relative health of the
economy, as silver will get bid up against gold in times of economic boom when industrial
demand grows. Therefore…
2

…it’s fair to say that the Gold/Silver ratio has been flashing some very negative signals in 2023
and 2024. Its deterioration to over 90X recently was testament to a world that turned its back
on silver as an investment vehicle, but also a world that assumed the world economy would slip
into recession. That means the April rebound is also about the “soft landing” now being
predicted by one and all as near-term momentum. However, recent demand has snowballed
thanks to the rise in speculators moving in and buying up ounces, which leads to our third
point.
Speculators are not consumers. When a trader takes two, or 20, or 2,000 ounces off the market
by buying physical silver (or even a bullion ETF such as SLV), they are not removing that silver
from the future market. We all know of people who bought lumps of silver in the last boom
price rise who were then exhorted to “Hold On For Dear Life” (HODL, as the cool kids say these
days) and did so, only to see their lump of bullion lose 30% or 50% of its value. Those people
are the same ones that swore to dump their holding as soon as it gets back to breakeven and
in this quick sketch scenario, that might be about to happen. Enough people doing the same
means the inventory held on the sidelines comes back into the market at the right price and
puts a lid on price appreciation. Or in other words, it’s one thing to make silver into an intricate
and artistic piece of jewelry, or a platter and teaset, quite another to leave it in a fungible and
easily disposed bar or coin and those of you expecting every single buyer never to sell and hold
to some Utopian price need to reconsider.
Now for a prediction: With the above as your dose of necessrty realism, it now behooves me to
make that “call on silver” and to be honest, I’m fairly optimistic about the near-term of the
metal. The real-world cynicism voiced above is part of my default position on silver, but this
audience is observant enough to know that sivler is capable of setting aside all negative
influences and running hard from time to time. We seem to be in one of those time windows
right now and that presents plenty of opportunity (not for nothing am I adding IPT.v this
coming week). We also know that it’s reasonable and logical to make a sensible upside call
based on available data and history, but if momentum grows silver can really get freaky and
blow into overbought parabolic moves (see 2011). Therefore, I have two answers:
1) The reasonable and logical anal yst says that silver could rally compared to gold and get
back to 75X, as seen in the chart above. That would imply these numbers:
Targets for silver at different gold prices and GSR multiples (U$)
Gold oz Silver oz 70/1 Silver Oz 75/1 Silver oz 80/1
1900 27.14 25.33 23.75
2000 28.57 26.67 25.00
2100 30.00 28.00 26.25
2200 31.43 29.33 27.50
2300 32.86 $30.67 28.75
2400 34.29 $32.00 30.00
2500 35.71 33.33 31.25
3000 42.86 40.00 37.50
source: IKN calcs & ests
A target for silver of between U$30.50 and U$32/oz is perfectly reasonable, as long as gold
holds up against the dollar.
2) The above could be blown out the water easily by overbuying on the way up.
Either way, with gold suddenly extremely popular and silver looking to return to a more
reasonable 75/1 ratio with the monetary metal, today’s U$28/oz and bits looks like a reasonable
entry point for silver. It has momentum, the technical/chart breakout has been trumpeted all
over the market and speculators and paying new attention. So even without a feeding frenzy,
silver is a decent risk/reward speculation at today’s levels.
And it’s why I’m doing this, below.
3

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): Every dog has its day
This is not a difficult analysis today, we’re not reinventing the wheel or rolling out a brand new
fundamentals analysis on a company nobody knows about in order to reveal a compelling new
story. Instead, IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) is a company known to most observers of our sector and
a company I’ve covered and watched for over a decade. I’ve even traded it and owned some
IPT on a couple of occasions, with the first times back in early 2013 when I bought high and
sold low as precious metals found their peak and sold off, then a second time in mid-2019
when running a quick flip trade for a modest profit.
It’s one of the companies that’s out there, doing its thing and under normal circumstances of no
particular interest, but its size, set-up and production profile is one that can offer a profitable
trade when the price of silver takes off. That is, of course, what we’ve seen in the past couple
of weeks and even though IPT has already moved up strongly and given early buyers some
strong gains, it’s the single reason why I’m a buyer this coming week, because if history is our
guide and the trend change we’ve just witnessed is what I think it is, there’s a lot of upside left
to come in IPT.
Buy low, sell high. That’s the idea behind this trade, no more no less.
As such we’re focused on the numbers today and this analysis and buy thesis is all about what
IPT does (mine silver) and how much it costs to do it but before diving in, a quick and dirty
background on the company does no harm. IPT’s main asset is its 100% ownership of the
“Royal Mines of Zacualpan Silver-Gold District” (RMZ), located in the South of the State of
Mexico (central-ish on the map). RMZ is a very large concession covering 211 km2 and aside a
complex mass of worked out, partially worked and undeveloped high grade silver vein systems
on the extensive property that’s been mined since the times of the Conquistadores (and
probably before that), there are four working mines that feed IPT’s central Guadalupe
processing plant with a nameplate capacity of 500tpd. As well as its flagship, IPT also own the
Capire open pit mine project located next to RMZ and since 2023, also owns the Plomosas
project in the North of Mexico. This is a zinc/lead/silver mine with a small processing plant and
represents the most likely growth projct for the company.
As for the basic corporate structure and frame, here’s our standard top box. There are some
notes below on these, as there are a couple of wrinkles that any trade needs to take into
account:
Shares out: 213.574m
Options: 6.01m
Warrants: 44.816m
Fully diluted: 264.4m
Current share price: C$0.30
Market Cap: C$64.07m
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.75=CAD$1
Notes on company structure are mainly about the ownership roster and those warrants, though
please note that most of the time we’ll use Canadian Dollars today, IPT’s reporting currency.
The nine board members of IPT own around 1.5m shares between them, with 618k of those in
the hands of company President and CEO Fred Davidson. That’s a really low amount of financial
exposure for the people running this show and that lack of skin in the game isn’t a good sign.
Even Davidson’s portion is low, considering he’s been running this company for 25 years. When
a C-suite cares more about cutting its monthly salary cheques than eating its own lunch, pay
attention and consider it a warning flag. In its latest corporate presentation IPT claims
“management and insiders” ownership at 10%, which is not the same as the executive team of
course. It then claims six insto funds hold an aggregate of 20% of shares out, with the rest in
retail hands. As that insto ownership is both fractured and a low total, don’t expect many tight
4

hands on display and as a result, the effective float is close to the total number of shares out.
That’s nobody’s idea of a tight structure.
Next up, we need to consider that large warrants number and there are two main tranches of
those, firstly around 34m that date from a C$8.3m placement it ran in April 2023. They have a
strike price of C$0.35 and an exiry date of mostly April 2024 (the rest May 2024), in other
words they have a year to run. Secondly, there are around 10.6m warrants from December last
year from the placement of 20.588m units priced at C$0.17 it ran, which raised gross proceeds
of C$3.5m (1). Those units included a half warrant priced at C$0.20, which means they’re nicely
in the money. Also, as this was a LIFE raising there was no statutory hold period and anyone
who bought that offering and wanted to clip the warrants has likely done so already.
Putting these pieces together, what we have is a loose ownership structure and plenty of “open
market liquidity” (to be as positive and diplomatic as possible) along with a clear overhang price
of 35c from the lion’s share of those warrants. Those make for share price that’s not going to
run due to company generated news and it’s going to need real change from the outside, prime
suspect a big run in the price of silver, to get over the paper wall it has set up in its stock.
However, there are of course two sides to that particular coin and if IPT shares can make a
decisive break above the warrant overhang of 35c, it means those share can be off to the races
and move higher quickly.
Some price charts: On the subject of price moves, we dial up a bunch of charts to give
context to our prospective trade; three visuals with three distinct time periods offered for your
consideration. First up the recent action and the ten-day
chart (right), which saw IPT top out last Monday at 37c
before falling back and closing at the 30c we see this
weekend. As a slight aside, I’ll comment on a personal
basis that as Monday turned to Tuesday, I stopped
mulling IPT over and got busy on the company’s number.
That’s when this trade idea began to crystallize into a
fully-fledged plan and I was happy about the idea of
paying the 35c-or-so we see on this chart. As such, the
selling and the 30c this weekend is my idea of a cherry
on top of the cake, a true bonus entry point.
So we know IPT has rallied along with the breakout in silver and that’s exactly what we’d
expect (or if you prefer, it’d be highly suspicious for a silver producer not to rally while silver did
what it’s done over the last two weeks) and the 22c to 30c move you see above (+36.4%) has
rewarded those prescient or early enough into the stock. However, we also see IPT hit a near-
term ceiling at-or-around 35c, where those 34m warrants with a year left on their life are
priced, and that’s logic enough as well.
If we move to the 12 month chart (below) we get the
move seen since Easter in context and even after the
recent run, IPT is down around 10% compared to this
time last year even though silver bullion is up around
10%. That alone suggests room to run in the near-
term.
But the real showpiece chart is below, the 20 year
historical chart of IPT, which shows just what the stock
is capable of doing from time to time. While I highly
doubt the explosive moves documented in 2006, 2009 or 2011 are on the table these days, the
rallies of 2016 (for me the best model) or the latest run that happened post-Covid, both moving
the stock from roughly where we are today to over a Loonie, are perfect feasible.
5

This is what happens in “silver fever” mode, we get moves that are difficult to justify on a
purely fundmental basis but when the momentum starts in silver stocks, overbuying and price
overshoots aren’t rare at all. In IPT, we have a candidate that ticks the right boxes:
 Small producer: Perhaps the most important point of all: unlike explorecos or
developers dependent on securing catalysts for re-rating (funding, drill results, permits,
etc), IPT sees immediate and tangible benefit from the rise of the price of silver, directly
into its top line revenues
 Low market cap: It’s the right size to offer leverage to retail speculators (you and I)
and at its current market cap, flies under the radar of the people who move bigger
money around. That affords the stock the opportunity of getting more expensive then
suddenly “looking cheap” at a higher market cap to a new round of speculators.
 High percentage of revenues from pure silver: Most “silver” stocks these days are
lucky to get even 51% of their gross revenues from pure silver and that percentage can
drop as low as 20% (e.g, PAAS, FSM), with more sales typically coming from gold, zinc,
lead and occasionally copper. Here you get around 90% of gross revenues from silver-
the-metal, due to the relatrive purity of the mineralization at Royal Mines of Zacualpan.
That may potentially see dilution from its ‘Plomosas’ expansion project in the North of
Mexico, but so far at least IPT has remained as pure as it ever has been.
 High cash cost: If it were a low cash cost miner it would be able to return regular
profits and be a completely different proposition at this point in time. Instead, IPT runs a
high cash cost and, over the years, has often struggled to make meaningful operating or
net profits. It tends to struggle through at “breakeven at best” and has mostly served as
a vehicle to pay its insiders and C-suite a decent monthly salary. A horrid stock to own
over the long-term, but it offers the classic “leverage to silver” opportunity when the
metal goes on the type of run we’ve seen in April 2024
 Cash-starved but reasonably solid balance sheet: It’s time for an admission; Over
the years I’ve been cynical to a fault about the people running IPT and the way they
have done nothing for shareholders while making sure they personally are on to a good
thing (and not just those salaries, for example we note that CEO Davidson’s drilling
company gets all the drilling work and fees at IPT). However, credit where it’s due and
IPT has always shown exemplary financial prudence and restraint. It’s run well as a long-
term entity and due to that, able to ride over the barren and tough periods for silver
miners and their markets. It keeps treasury and liquidity levels correctly, rarely dips into
negative working cap territory and most importantly, financial liabilities are kept to a
strict minimum. A clean balance sheet is a vital element for long-term survivability in this
sector, but for us on the outside it also provides a strong springboard for speculative
gains when the market turns and silver provides one of these trading moments. IPT fits
the bill and for more on its financials, we now turn to some of the ‘Usual Suspect’ charts
for illustration and enlightenment.
6

The financials are the key
For most companies and analyses the corporate financials matter, but in this case the whole
long thesis rests on the results and prospects of IPT the financial entity. As noted above, the
combination of regular and reliable production levels, high relative cash cost and breakeven-at-
best recent performance make for a company share price that should become highly responsive
to improvements in metals prices. That’s the job from here on but instead of diving straight in,
we ring the changes and we start IPT financials with its share count. As seen here (right), aside
from those aforementioned warrants, we’ve also seen IPT’s share count all-but double since the
Covid crisis and that’s something to keep in mind if/when the stock takes off on a run in silver
and the world starts predicting silly number price targets.
The chart also documents when IPT added to its
share count. The first was in the Covid year when
it raised capital in a placement, then came 1q23
when it bought the Plomosas mine from its
vendor, Australian company CZL, for $6m. That
deal was $3m chas and 11.44m shares (the deal
includes and escrow that saw 25% of the shares
it paid CZL to come out of escrow ten days ago), IPT then ran funding placement just after the
deal closed and added back liquidity. Finally, the recent December 23 placement at 17c topped
off its treasury.
Moving to the balance sheet items, there are two main messages from the overview charts.
Firstly, assets largely outstrip liabilities even after IPT assumed the $4m or so of trade payables
that came with the Plomosas deal, secondly that it likes to keep a reasonably healthy cash
balance (as we saw when it raised in December last year, as other companies might have
thought that superfluous and at 17c, too much dilution and too cheap a price).
IPT: Asset breakdown
110
100
90
80 70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
Indeed, a look at the cash position isolated (below left) and overall working capital (below
right) shows a company that is in good financial shape and under no threat of any cash crunch.
Not many producers with low debt and a market cap of under U$50m keep this amount of its
value in hard cash.
7
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
C$m IPT: Liabilities breakdown
fixed
other current
cash+ST
source: company filings, IKN ests
0.5
5.2
4.4
2.2
3.4
0.2
5.4
4.2
5.3
7.2
9.3
3.2
2.4
3.2
5.4
8.1
1.4
5.2
3.4
1.2
3.4
0.2
6.4
6.2
0.5
0.2
5.5
0.2
4.6
1.6
6.6
9.5
5.6
0.6
5.6
0.6
5.6
0.6
5.6
0.5
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
IPT: Shares out
C$m
LT debt
current debt
source: company filings, IKN ests
62.011 33.011 33.811 23.231 14.141 18.341 13.541 13.541 83.541 47.541 91.841 91.841 91.841 91.841
99.291 99.291
75.312 75.312 75.312 75.312 75.312
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100 80
60
40
20
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
S/O (m)
source: company filings, IKN ests
IPT: Cash treasury, per qtr
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10
8 6
4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
C$m IPT: Working capital, per qtr
source: company filings, IKN ests
475.3
83.3
837.5
987.61 823.02 239.12 177.22 60.22 25.12 431.12 9.91 595.71 24.61 156.51 213.31
147.8 11 01 11 41
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10
8 6
4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
C$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

IPT knows how much treasury it needs to conduct business without sweating and while this
healthy position may throw up questions on exactly why it decided to run that 17c placement in
4q23, it knows surely knows its liquidity requirements. It may also have had plans to develop
Plomosas this year and wasn’t planning on the recent run in silver to help the funding. Anyway,
bottom line, IPT’s balance sheet is in good shape with plenty of cash and low liabilities.
Moving to recent results, the name of the game at IPT is consistency and in a nutshell, it’s why
this trade appeals as a way of leveraging up on silver. The combo of regular and reliable
production and high cash cost means we know where we are with its financials, quarter-in-
quarter-out, so its profitability hinges on the price it gets for its silver. Having followed IPT for
many years, the house dataset goes back a long away and we could include results from years
that matter less today. Just one example, here’s silver production going back to early 2017:
IPT: Silver production, per qtr
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
8
71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
Oz Ag
source: company filings
But we need to stay relevant so, after due consideration, most of our analysis period starts just
before the Covid crisis to show what’s been going on in both good and bad times. Here’s silver
production and sales (ounces per quarter). Please note that IPT does produce and sell limited
quantities of gold, lead and zinc but as around 90% of revenues typically come from silver, it’s
enough to track its main metal to get a good handle on its financial performance.
IPT: Silver production and sales
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
Oz Ag
Ag prod
Ag sales
source: company filings, IKN ests
Aside the Covid production dip, IPT’s production and sales are reasonably regular, as is its
average tonnage throughput per quarter. This turns IPT into a regular runner, a company with
a reasonable benchmark on production levels, which in turn means its financial performance is
all about the relationship between input costs and market prices for metals.
IPT: Tonnes milled per qtr
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
rtq/sennot

Which brings us to this dataset. Usefully, IPT supplies a couple of datasets with its quarterly
numbers, namely the “revenues per tonne sold” (which includes the revenues from credit
metals, of course) and “direct cosst per produced tonne”, which is a useful metric that shows
the development of costs. Put those on the same chart and you get this:
IPT: Revenues per tonne sold vs
200 Direct costs per produced tonne
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
9
71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
C$/tonne
Revenue per tonne sold
Direct costs per prod. tonne
source: company filings
That takes in all results since 2q17 in order to show the three recent phases:
 First until Covid, when revenues and costs per tonne were fairly close to each other. This
shows the “breakeven at best” profile and how it was tough for IPT to turn a meaningful
profit.
 Then post-Covid, we suddenly got that sharp rise in silver prices and the results, until
perhaps mid-2022, showed better margins on a per-tonne basis.
 The final period is late 2022 to date, as we’ve seen costs in Canadian Dollars move up
sharply. We know about the general price inflation in our sector, but in the case of IPT
we also add the effects of the strengthening Mexican Peso (MXN) against the Canadian
Pe…sorry, Dollar. The result has been a rise in revenues on a per-tonne basis but
anomalous quarters aside (2q23), costs have eaten away all the margins.
We see the result in this derviate chart that subtracts revenues per tonne from costs per tonne
in the above chart and shows the “margin” it leaves:
IPT: Difference between revenues and costs per tonne
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
$/tonne
source: comany filings, IKN ests and calcs
Clearly, times were good in late 2020 and early 2021, when silver prices run in front of costs
and allowed IPT to make money. Sure enough, we see that effect on dialing up the official
profit+loss data and Mine Operating Earnings (revenues minus COGS and DD&A).
IPT: Mine Op Earnings
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3
C$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

Same pattern, no surprise. However, please note the absolute mounts of money we’re talking
about here for its Mine Op Eanrings, as a “good” quarter peaks at less than C$2m and the
company can hardly strong four quarters of C$1m+
operating profits together, even when outside data is
conducive. That’s the leverage we’ve been talking
about from the start of this note and part of the
reason IPT is a speculative trade for a specific and
brief time window, one that starts now. Please
consider the shape of those earnings charts above
with the price chart for the same period (right), as
improved gross margins and earnings that seem tiny
compared to many mining companies are enough to
move the stock significantly. Same shape, same
influences:
 Steady and reliable production
 High cash costs and thin margins under normal circumstances
 Bigtime leverage when silver runs.
It was enough to see IPT run from under 50c to above $1.00 in the Covid rebound and with
silver having zoomed above U$28/oz, we’ve already cut enough percentage gain to see the
same thing happen to the stock this year. A lot will depend, of course, on just how high silver
runs. The two analysis charts above pencil in our best guesses for the first three quarters of this
year and assume silver prices at U$28/oz for 2q24 (i.e. our current quarter), rising to U$30/oz
for 3q24. This I believe will be enough to light the blue touch paper and allow us to retire to a
safe distance before the mania shoots this rickdet higher, but we also know that silver is
capable of running even higher than U$30/oz on this move.
With this trade, we need to keep in mind that the newly diluted share base means that upside
will be slightly less explosive, but the trend change we saw last week is too obvious to ignore
and we know stocks like IPT can run hard if silver really starts climbing. However and equally,
the fundamentals of the stock show that it will return to reasonable profitability even at today’s
spot price for silver and if they can reel in costs or benefit from an improvement in the
Canadian Dollar forex with Mexico (the Loonie typically rallies with copper and other metals)
margins would improve even further. At U$28/oz, there’s clear and logical upside to IPT so any
silver frenzy buying on top of that would become bonus.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) will remain my main silver trade, as it’s a far higher quality producer
and a real moneymaker that doesn’t need bonanza prices to make a profit. SILV as close to
“silver investment” as you’ll ever see and IPT isn’t that, but in moments such as this, with silver
breaking out and momentum taking over, the small leveraged play on silver can offer outsized
gains in short time periods. As from this week I am a buyer of IMPACt Silver (IPT.v) and will
add it to the main Stocks to Follow list as from next weekend. As for a price target, much
depends on the metal but there’s no reason not to expect 60c from IPT and a double, given a
reasonable run. Time to get long and speculate on silver.
Stocks to Follow
The Friday reversal took plenty of shine off the week, but it’s still difficult to complain too much
(apart from another underperforming week from our Top Pick, of course). Of the 17 stocks on
our list, ten were week-over-week winners (RIO.v, SILV, SOLG.to, PGZ.v, WRN.to, ADZN.v,
CTGO, NCAU.v, ALDE.v, ERO.to), two were unchanged (OCI.v, PAU.cse) and the other five
were losers on the week (MAI.v, EQX, MARI.to, MIRL.cse, MENE.v). The biggest winner on the
week was Adventus (ADZN.v up 11.8%), with Newcore Gold (NCAU.v up 8.3%) a gallant runner
10

up, but while highlighting the strong performances we have make mention of Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v),
which may have only moved by half a cent but considering its news it was a big week.
With the addition of Orecap (OCI.v) to the Watch List we now have 17 Stocks to Follow, three
fewer than our self-imposed maximum. Ten of those are in the green, two are unchanged and
five are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.305 45.2% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Equinox Gold EQX Hold U$4.42 30-May-23 U$5.97 35.1% will take profits soon(ish)
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.80 22-Apr-18 C$0.45 -43.8% Permit approved, rebounding
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.90 31-Mar-24 U$7.21 4.5% Quality silver/gold producer
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.175 -20.5% (Glad I) avged down Feb'24
Pan Global Res PGZ.v STR BUY C$0.19 19-Feb-24 C$0.22 15.8% Looks tremendous value now
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 26-May-23 C$3.53 15.7% Quality Cu developer
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$1.57 26-Feb-24 C$2.10 33.8% M&A trade, working so far
Adventus Mining ADZN.v SPEC BUY C$0.305 7-Jan-24 C$0.425 39.3% Good Ecuador spec trade
Contango Ore CTGO STR BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.97 12.1% FY24 production, now moving
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.195 -4.9% Cheap Au in West Africa
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$1.00 38.9% Patience required…ugh
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$28.42 50.1% Hi-quality but no longer cheap
Orecap Inv OCI.v WATCH C$0.065 31-Mar-24 C$0.065 0.0% Arb on OreGroup hotpots
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.085 0.0% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.215 -65.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies, but before the notes here’s a summary of…
…Additions to several positions: As noted in IKN777 last weekend, I deployed the majority
of spare treasury cash in additions to several of the current open positions. In the end and after
due consideration and sticking a thumb in the air, I went with six adds:
 Pan Global (PGZ.v): One of the two larger adds and what’s more, hindsight says I paid
too much. The cost average is up 2c
 Adventus (ADZN.v): Along with PGZ, chunkier add last week. Happy with the price
paid, as ADZN didn’t even pause for breath on Friday afternoon. My cost average is up 2c
 Western Copper (WRN.to): A modest add, the cost average clicked up 5c
 SilverCrest Metals (SILV): A modest add, the cost average clicked up 9c
 Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I wasn’t planning on this one, but when it reacted so well to the
financing and upsize it was too tempting not to average down a little. The only postion
that saw my cost average drop, it’s down by 3c.
 SolGold (SOLG.to): A very small purchase which it hardly shifted my cost average, so
I’ve left it at 22c.
11

Aside from those purchases, there was one small change to the plan as laid out last week. The
was to spend all my pennies on these additions but the week wasn’t old before the thought of
adding IMPACT Silver (IPT.v, see today’s main fundies section) crystallized into a full-fledged
plan. As such, there’s enough left in the coffers for my planned purchase next week.
IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): BUYING. To make sure it’s clear, a quick line to underscore the
decision and trade plan, as see above in the main fundies section. For a while I thought I’d
have to pay upwards of 35c to start this trade but the action on Thursday and Friday has made
the plan even more attractive. Getting 30c would be a dream but I’m realistic, so getting all
purchases for under 33c would be just fine.
Adventus Mining (ADZN.v): One of the two star
trades on our list, the unadulturated accumulation
pattern was only interrupted by the Friday sector selling
and even then, ADZN held up well compared to peers.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): A very impressive five days for this
stock. On Monday evening RIO.v announced the formal
receipt of its RCA permit, the main environmental permit
approved by the Comite de Ministros in December and
the document that effectivelyt permits Fenix to
construction. At the same time, it announced a $10m placement priced at 39c with no warrants,
but due to popular demand it was upsized the next day to no less than $23m, a massive upsize
and testament o the money looking to get in on this project at these levels. That placement will
close in a few days’ time and is the first part of the construction financing, which should also
include a major debt portion and a contribution from
streamer partner Wheaton (WPM).
The popularity of this deal was also evident in the open
market, as the stock actually managed to finish up half
a cent on the week at 45c despite that 39c placement.
So not only a successful funding round with news that
the company is getting the debt portion of the major
financing in place now, but the type of newsflow that
puts the project firmly on the radar of the wider market
and as noted above, even though I own too many
already, I couldn’t resist adding a few at these prices
and lowering my cost average a touch.
Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v): A really good interview between OCI head Stephen Stwwart and
Awalé CEO Andrew Chubb on this link (2) below and the ARIC CEO could hardly contain his
excitement about the prospects for his company in the months to come. U found the segments
discussing the ARIC 100% controlled concession areas most interesting, as there is clearly a lot
of good news potential from the areas not included in the NEM JV deal.
Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v): I paid a little too much for my additional shars last week, but
that’s okay and my cost average is still that of a real bargain.
Equinox Gold (EQX): I’m watching this one closely, as I’m still ready to sell and take profits if
there’s a better place for my money in this newly bullish market. EQX should still be showing
leverage to gold but instead slightly underperformed its peers. For sure that might be because
it’s one of the first that will be dumped during the type of reversal we saw on Friday afternoon,
but I don’t have unlimited patience for this trade and another five days of mediocrity would be
enough to tip the balance.
12

The Copper Basket
After sixteen weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 15.33% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1729.99 9.26 29.3%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 179.221 885.35 4.94 19.6%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 328.68 3.53 2.9%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 315.97 10.70 -9.3%
5 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 187.11 0.81 -41.3%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 169.82 1.00 12.4%
7 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 169.21 1.55 -11.4%
8 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 222.86 149.32 0.67 78.7%
9 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 175.97 117.90 0.67 6.3%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 108.87 71.85 0.66 153.8%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 44.11 0.69 19.0%
12 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 26.92 0.435 -28.7%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 23.45 0.135 12.5%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 16.47 0.155 -13.9%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 13.43 0.065 -7.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 15.33%
More gains. On balance, the junior copper space The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
20%
did better than that of the precious metals and 18%
16%
mainly because the Friday selling affected its
14%
underlying metal less than gold, silver or their 12%
10%
PGM friends. 8%
6%
4%
So when the dust settled we had nine week- 2%
0%
over-week winners (NGEX.v, SLS.to, LA.v, -2%
-4%
ALDE.v, FDY.to, OCO.v, CCCM.v, KDK.v, ECU.v) -6%
and while most of those were relatively small
compared to some of the moves we saw last
week, there were two double figure percentage
improvements from Faraday (FDY.to up 13.6%) and Element 29 (ECU.v up 10.7%). Just one
stock remained unchanged, the perennially stickt QC Copper (QCCU.v), which leaves five losers
(MARI.to, BIG.v, ASCU.to, AE.v, COR.v) and of those, the biggest drop came from our tinycap
rep for the year, Camino Minerals (COR.v down 35.0%).
As for copper-the-metal price action, that was clearly positive and constructive without ever
threatening to break much higher.
This ten-day chart of the March
futures contreact shows how last
week was all about consolidation
at the new U$4.25/lb line and
how any run at U$4.30/lb didn’t
hold. Those with their glasses half
empty won’t be happy with last
week’s copper action, my glass is
half full and very happy with the
way 2024 is rolling out.
As for copper sector news of
interest, first up a report on the
long-term battle to be Top Copper
Dog and this came as something
13
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41
source: IKN calcs

of a surprise to this desk. For years Chile’s State run Codelco and The USA’s Freeport (FCX)
have duked it out to be the worl’d biggest copper
producer and the lead has changed hands several
times in the last ten years, but now there’s about
to be a new #1 if this Bloomie report (3) is to be
believed. The world’s biggest mining company,
Australia’s BHP, is of course a major player in a
wide range of different metals but in the last
couple of years has upped its copper game and is
now predicted to overtake Codelco and become
the world’s copper production leader this year.
Here’s the graphic from the report (right) and if it
delivers on those 1.44m metric tonnes, it will edge
out the 2023 top dog Codelco. FCX has lagged
since Covid, for what it’s worth.
In other copper news, we had a more on those smelters in China and their will-they-won’t-they
cutbacks in production. This report out of Reuters (4) suggests that the effects are now
showing:
Earth-i, which specialises in observational data, tracks smelters representing up to 90% of global
production for its SAVANT service and sells data to fund managers, traders and miners.
The company said that an average of 17.7% of global copper smelter capacity monitored was
inactive in March compared with 11.5% during January and February combined.
Average inactive capacity in China rose to 9% in March from 8.3% in the first two months, it added
in a statement on Thursday.
China’s top copper smelters proposed in late March to cut production by 5% to 10%, sources told
Reuters, after the world’s top producer of refined copper battled short supply of raw material and
losses at some operations.
“As market watchers seek confirmation of pledged curtailments in China … inactivity in the country
jumped sharply in the final days of March, ending the month at a substantially higher 12.8%,” Earth-
i said.
However, we remind readers that smelter output is one thing and real. End-user demand is
quite another. On that subject, here’s the regular weekly dataset we use to keep our finger on
the pulse of Chinese and wider world demand, the copper inventories round-up with data, as
usual, from those nice Chilean people at Cochilco:
 An interesting and non-bullish rise in the world’s copper inventory, with the aggregate
for the three official world systems moving up by a significant 16,519 metric tonnes
(mt) to close at 440,613mt.
 At the Shanghai SHFE, to my personal surprise we still haven’t found the top of the
seasonale inventory build, with 7,874mt added to bring the total under roof to
299,723mt, as near as dammit to that “psychologically important” 300kmt line.
 Almost as interesting is the 8,900mt added at LME warehouses last week, not only for
that aggregate that brings the LME copper tonnage total to 124,425mt but also
because its Asian warehouses added 13,709mt, a big gain that was balanced in part by
the 4,075mt that left New Orleans USA stores. That means LME Asia has seen inflows
of 16,000mt over two weeks and once again, we meekly point out that’s nobody’s idea
of bullish demand in the world’s major copper market.
 For the second week running, the only week-over-week drop came from the Comex,
the small drop of 255mt moving the weekend total to 26,465mt and suggesting better
demand for copper in North America than anywhere else. But really, it’s no biggie and
means nothing for copper price discovery.
One SHFE tracking chart is enough, which shows how its build continues to creep up and is
starting to show a pattern unrelated to previous years. It will turn down soon and when it does,
we’ll get as much feel for China copper demand from the speed of the drop as from the current
slow build.
14

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on some of our basket stocks:
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): After its recent burst, ASCU got back to disappointing its legion
of supporters, often readers of the high-traffic newsletters that have pushed this stock at all
prices for two years and counting. However…
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): …the stock we lumped with it last weekend in IKN777, FDY, made
me look way better at near-term sentiment fliptrading than I am. We noted last weekend the
similarities between ASCU and FDY and that ASCU had run, so predicted FDY would play catch-
up. Here’s how the note ended:
“Perhaps not the most sophisticated trade idea but it’s hardly the first time that I’ve come up with a
simplistic trade set-up and there does seem to be 10% or so ready to be harvested from a quick in-
and-out in FDY.”
Call me genius, I don’t care. FDY rose by 13.6% on the week and traded as if reading my own
script. Don’t expect me to be able to repeat this soothsaying.
Hercules Silver (BIG.v): Added to the 2024 Copper Baskert list due to it becoming the big
hype copper story of 4q23 (despite its corporate title), this six-month chart (right) is a reminder
how the speculative sizzle came to an abrupt halt at the very start of the year, so even though
the stock is officially down 41.3% 2024 YTD, it’s effectively UNCH or thereabouts. We continue
to be in the quiet period for BIG newsflow, with the company reportedly doing the geological
legwork such as IP surveys that tend not to move the market and the the 2024 drill campaign
set to kick off next month. With the most interesting geology at deeper levels, the lag to
eventual assay numbers and real potential catalysts is set to continue and we probably have
until July or August before we know whether its success last year can be repeated.
Camino Minerals (COR.v): Not only is that our tinycap for the 2024 list, it’s also a
representative of a bunch of explorecos of this ilk working the Andean cordillera. Stocks like
Panoro (PML.v), Alta (ALTA.v), Chakana (PERU.v) in Peru or World Copper (WCU.v) in Chile,

Libero (LBC.v) in Colombia or plenty of others like them are small, working projects that have
already shown their weaknesses and are all trying to hit a hole (or in the case of ALTA at
Cañariaco, trying to convince locals to let them drill again) in order to change their fortunes and
get some early story mojo back. In the case of COR we saw the type of drill result that so often
comes from one of these plays, with news that gets talked up and hyped on social media into
an announcement that fails to live up to elevated expectations, the dumpage sell-off seemingly
inevitable. In this case, the 35% drop was less about the headline intercepts from two of the
holes, the DCH-112 return of 25m of 1.34% Cu from surface and the DCH-100 return of 25m of
0.79% Cu from 20m down, more that those returns were from two of 15 holes reported in total
and most showed little or nothing. The issue points to how this project is constaining to a long-
ish thin-nish strip of mineralization and how it’s going to have to bulk out to become
economically mineable. Last week’s results don’t indicate that is going to happen and sure
enough, down goes the stock price.
Just because a big Chinese concern has fallen for the hype and is willing to sponsor this
company’s drilling plans doesn’t mean you have to do so, too. Avoid.
Los Andes Copper (LA.v): The silence is beginning to roar from this company in 2024, news
has been scant and official NRs on minor, corporate level issues. The only “news” we’ve had
recently is around the legal battle the company has with the local community, as LA is taking
the mayor of Putaendo to court for hiring an anti-mining consultancy group on the municipal
coin to help him fight the company’s presence. With its poor price action suggesting things are
not well, this is going….frankly it’s going as I expected. Queen’s Road Capital is smart, but I
don’t think they did enough DD on this one. Another one I find easy to avoid.
The Producer Basket
After 15 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 10.00% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 44.54 38.64 -6.6%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 31.36 17.86 -1.3%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 30.60 61.45 12.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 22.68 118.05 6.5%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 6.98 19.16 17.3%
6 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.35 5.42 12.7%
7 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 3.17 13.34 5.5%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.07 15.14 16.7%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.39 7.56 6.0%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.14 7.64 31.0%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 10.00%
After the party comes the hangover. The gold miner sector was ready for a reversal and when it
came, via a fast sell-down of gold on Friday afternoon, the stampede to take profits in Tier 1
and Tier 2 producer was enough to turn a winning week into a losing week for the majority of
participants and GDX finished down 0.2% on the week, despite having traded at +5% on thw
eek that very morning. However, gold (GLD proxy up 0.8%) held on to most of its gains and
provided a winning week for the metal, so it’s difficult to claim things were too bad. The
reasons are up for debate, but essentially what we saw Friday afternoon was profit-taking and
as long as it doesn’t repeat and get any worse in the next two or three trading days, part of the
scenery of capital markets.
Anyway, two of our stocks managed to return a week-over-week gain (PAAS, EGO) and one
other was unchanged to the penny (GOLD), so that means seven losers (NEM, AEM, FNV,
LUGDF, HL, DPMLF, WDOFF) and most of those drops were modest, only Wesdome (WDOFF)
16

losing 6.0% stands out. However and overall, our list of ten was beaten up more thoroughly
than the GDX and we lost a large chunk of our lead against the sector benchmark. Pan
American Silver (PAAS up 9.3%) was the biggest mover of them all
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
16% comparative to GDX control
12%
8%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
Pan American Silver (PAAS): The idea of including this serial under-achiever in this year’s
Producer Basket list was simple: To look for the clichéd “leverage to silver” that a buoyant
precious metals market might bring in 2024 and sure
enough, even though PAAS is these days more dependent on
gold than silver for its top line revenues we got that effect
over the last week and a half, with this chart (right) showing
PAAS running hard as spot silver took off (SLV proxy).
PAAS also managed to pimp its week by timing a good set of
drill results out of its La Colorada Skarn project in North
Mexico (5), delivered oddly last Sunday night April 7th. That
NR got me running back to the December 2023 NR with the
rather lackluster results of the PEA for this project (6) and
part of the cover NR that day was this sensitivities table, with my red ink added:
On that day, PAAS presented La Colorada Skarn at a base case using U$2,800/tonne
(U$1.27/lb) zinc and U$22/oz silver. It so happens that spot silver has rocketed since then while
spot zinc is roughly the same level, which got me reflecting on how much more La Colorada is
supposedly worth under the new price deck.
 At the base case (black rectangle), its NPV at an 8% discount is U$1.087Bn
 Keep silver constant and improve zinc by 21% and the NPV rises by U$810m
 Keep zinc constant and improve silver by 27% and the NPV rises by U$297m
As the third scenario is roughly where we are today, it’s interesting to see how La Colorada
would be much better off with higher zinc prices than with higher silver prices we see today. In
other words, at this project PAAS is offering us a zinc mine with a silver kicker and not the other
way around. Considering how the stock rose last week on the La Colorada Skarn assay NR, it
shows that this company really is all about “leverage” and not about true results. On that
subject, we now have the date for the 1q24 financials, due to drop on May 8th. That affords
another reminder of how PAAS dumped hard on its 3q23 financials and reached its 52 week low
of U$12.16 just days after reporting its 4q23 and YE numbers at the end of February. Expect
more of the same.
17
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
1.0%
ikn 0.5%
gdx control 0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
source: IKN calcs -4.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): In this NR on Tuesday (7) EGO announced that due to
favourable forex it would benefit from the sliding scale tax regime in Turkey to the tune of
between U$9m and U$12m during 1q24. This is good and we’ll find out the exact numbers
post-close Thursday April 25th when EGO reports its quarter (i.e. eleven days’ time), with the
ConfCall the next morning. For details on how to tune in, see the NR.
Lundin Gold (LUG.to) (LUGDF): As previewed last weekend, LUG duly delivered its 1q24
production and sales numbers (8), with 111,572 oz gold produced and 108,916 oz gold sold
(chart right). Those numbers are basically as expected and fit with 2024 guidance.
LUG.to: Gold produced & sold, per qtr
18
06126
091601
50818
214521 506111 674801 282911
19269
046431 098911 196431 859821 117211
50089
619801
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
Oz Au
gold prod
gold sold
source: company filings
We note that average head grade to mill of 9.5 g/t improved from the low 4q23 average, but
it’s still lower than the 9.9 g/t guidance for 2024.
LUG.to: FDN avg gold head grade, per qtr That means we should get improved grade as the
year rolls out and should see incremental
improvement in quarterly production numbers as
Lug aims for its 450k to 500k guidance range.
In trading, LUG traded softly once again after the
1q24 numbers were out. The impression we had
last week of a larger seller out there was
underscored. If gold rallies, this could be an
interesting way to play the move as there’s some
bonus catch-up percentage points available. All
things considered, today’s is a likeable price for this
quality company.
Hecla (HL): Another to file its 1q24 production and preliminary sales numbers last week was
HL and we were looking for a rebound as Lucky Friday came back online (production suspended
due to that underground fire in 4q23). Sure enough…
4.01 1.01 4.11 1.11 3.01 9.9 2.11 3.01 0.11 0.01 3.21 0.11 7.9
2.8
5.9
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
g/t Au
source: company filings

HL: Silver production, per qtr
…that’s what we got and HL delivered its best silver numbers for many quarters. However, in
this desk’s opinion there’s no green light on trading this stock and for two reasons:
1) Lucky Friday doesn’t do gold and that number continued on the low side, suggesting
that all the rebound came from its restart rather than its other assets.
2) Costs this quarter are an unknown, as HL may have taken some extra opex on board
and may have to report supplementary one-time financial burdens from the fire event
and re-start. As this company has a nasty habit of disappointing, caution is advised.
HL hasn’t scheduled its 1q24 filing yet, but it’s usually the second week in May so now you
know. Watching brief, as while we shouldn’t hold our collective breath GHL will beat the street’s
expectations one of these fine days. Probably.
The TinyCaps List
After 15 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 81.01% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 221.5 29.90 0.135 107.7%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 67.27 53.82 0.80 492.6%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 40.12 0.375 120.6%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 24.02 0.16 -11.1%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 11.08 0.125 25.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 7.50 0.105 40.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 9.98 0.14 7.7%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 25.38 0.52 -30.7%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 219.21 29.59 0.135 50.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 15.39 0.13 8.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 81.01%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
19
954.3 525.3 676.2 722.3 523.3 546.3 945.3 466.3 140.4
481.0
946.3
17.0
428.2
806.0
823.2
646.0
645.3
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2 1.5
1
0.5
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
Moz Ag HL: Gold production, per qtr
KHSD
silver ex KHSD
source: company filings
40025
93195
70224 77974 24614 91754 74744 99634 71793 15253 96293 86173 29563
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000 25000 20000
15000
10000
5000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 42q1
Oz Au
source: company filings

 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A more subdued week for the TinyCaps basket, with TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
a mix of four losers (ARIC.v DMX.v, STS.v, VAU.v) 90%
and six winners (BAY.v, EDG.v, KLDC.v, LMS.v, PA.v, 80%
70%
SURG.v) and most of those smaller moves, but 60%
thanks mostly to the only larger mover Surge Copper 50%
40%
(SURG.v up 28.6%) there was enough to add
30%
another two points to the overall average and the 20%
10%
bull run is kept intact.
0%
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): Please see the notes
on Orecap (OCI.v) above for the link to the most
interesting interview between Ore Goup head honcho Stephen Stewart and ARIC CEO Andrew
Chubb. In trading, ARIC took a break and found sellers locking in profits without too many
stepping up, though it’s worth noting that any price under 80c was snapped up.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): The good impression caused by the SURG deal with African
Rainbow Minerals Limited (Joburg: ARI) and reported on last weekend in IKN777 continued to
show fruit this week and SURG picked up constant bids for the first time in a long time. Up the
most on our list and by a long way, happy to see this copper exploreco finally getting some
momo.
Viva Gold (VAU.v): We got the first results from VAU’s reverse circulation drill program at its
Tonopah project, NV USA (9), with three holes reported and the stand-out was “…50.5-meters
(“m") starting at 40m averaging 0.68 grams per tonne Au (“gpt Au”) and 3.0 gpt Ag…”, which
was pretty good as a standalone, but it also connected zones that saw drilling in previous
seasons so the team must be particularly happy with that result. VAU dropped a penny on the
week and still can’t find any real momentum.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile: CESCO Week
This coming week, from Tomorrow Monday 15th to Wednesday 17th, is the combo World Copper
Conference and CESCO Week in Santiago de Chile, organized by CRU/CESCO and one of the
copper sector’s biggest gigs of the year, if not its biggest (10). Anyone who’s anyone in the
copper world will be there, except for Robert Friedland of course who can’t get over the fact
that he’s can’t book a win in Chile when others can. Instead we have all the Codleco bigwigs,
Jonathan Price of Teck, Jeremy Weir of Trafigura, the head of Rio Tinto’s copper division, BHP’s
Andean division, politicos galore and a wide array of other stuffed suits.
This conference isn’t all show either, as it was CRU/CESCO last April which set the tone for the
copper price for nearly all of last year, with Chinese buyers and top politicos going round telling
those present that their country wouldn’t pay mpore than U$3.80/lb so the sellers better get
used to the idea. That turned out to be the case, so your author will have his same ears to the
ground in ordser to pick up on the vibe from this year’s show.
Ecuador: Noboa plays up his image
Sure enough and as outlined last weekend in IKN777, President Noboa’s populist crimebuster
image has won the day in the country and despite all the howling done by Mexico after his raid
on its embassy to arrest Jorge Glas, he’s basically got away with his misdeeds on the
international stage as well. Here’s Bloomie (11)
20
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA ht41
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Noboa Gets Slap on Wrist for Ecuador’s Raid on Mexican Embassy
Meanwhile, the foreign press has put two and two together and worked out Noboa’s plan to be
the “New Bukele”, play up his hard man image and ride it into the big referendum vote, next
weekend. Here’s CNN (12):
A crucial vote and Noboa seeks a boost
Ecuador’s April 21 vote is crucial to put the current diplomatic crisis into context,
analysts say. Noboa defended his decision to raid a foreign embassy – a violation of
the Vienna Convention – by saying the security crisis in Ecuador called for “exceptional
decisions,” and that he could not allow a convicted criminal to escape justice.
In an open letter published on Monday, he tied his action to the upcoming referendum,
claiming “a vast majority of Ecuadoreans” would defend his decision with their vote.
“It could well be that the raid grants him a spike of popularity,” said Santiago Orbe, an
Ecuadorian international analyst.
“The government has been under pressure because of Fito’s escape and then for
trying and failing to send old weapons to Ukraine. This action, however impulsive and
frankly disproportionate, shows that they do not lack courage when making decisions,”
Orbe told CNN.
That’s right in line woith our position last weekend and as seen in trading of ADZN shares,
foreign investors are not being put off by the turmoil any longer. Be clear, next weekend’s vote
is a big one for FDI and mining investment as if he gets approval for Ecuador to re-join the
international tribunal systems, we’re going to see real deals happen. Step forward, Solgold.
More Ecuador: Violence against pro-Solaris locals
We did plenty on the travails and CSR issues around the Solaris (SLS.to) Warintza project in the
PDAC weeks, first in a long note in IKN772 dated March 3rd and then a follow-up in IKN773
dated March 10th. The start point was the way SLS had brought in a Shuar regional indigenous
federation, the FICSH, to sign a deal with the company during PDAC and thereby contradict the
position taken by PHSA, the main legal representative group of the Shuar people and its anti-
mining stance.
Since then and unsurprisingly, the Shuar have taken matters into their own hands and last
week, both the national government (pro-mining) and the national indigenous umbrella group
CONAIE (anti-mining) called for calm and an end to violence as protesters attacked the offices
of FICSH using stones, Molotov cocktails and even dynamite (13). The violence is apparently a
group of militant anti-mining campaigners who consider FICSH and its president David
Tankamash (the man who signed on the dotted line with SLS at PDAC) as traitors and claim he
is no longer president, with a new leader replacing him with views toward mining more aligned
with the population. Unsurprisingly, the anti-miners are blaming the government for sowing
division and discord, while the national government is blaming the anti-miners and cvalling
them violent terrorists. All this is unlikely to end well, but as we underscored in IKN772 it’s the
logical fruit of a corporate strategy that’s always been about “divide and conquer”, rather than
seeking a wider accord. Or put another way, avoid anything run by Richard Warke like the
plague and that includes, Solaris, Augusta Gold, Titan Mining and Highlander Silver in Peru. He’s
pure poison and it’s no surprise that his other deal have hit permitting trouble and never borne
fruit.
Argentina: San Juan’s new governor has read the memo
Further to last week’s note on San Juan and its governor Marcelo Orrego, “San Juan’s new
governor has read the memo”, Wednesday saw an interesting event as Barrick’s CEO Mark
Bristow flew in to head up an event at the company’s Veladero’s asset in San Juan. Bristow had
only good things to say about Orrego and then launched into an extended criticism of the
previous national government under Alberto Fernández (whose reps in San Juan were the
previous governors Uñac and Gioja). Bristow spoke in English and I don’t have the exact words,
as the only report is this one (14) that translated him into Spanish. I translate back:
“The previous government was very challenging and it was very difficult to work with
them. We found ourselves in a crisis that got worse and worse. You have just heard
21

Governor Orrego openly state that Veladero has contributed to the development of
Jachal e Iglesia (i.e. the locality around the mine) for many years. We’ve never had
that recognition for our investment and its benefits before (from any previous
government). We are therefore happy with this because it generates a relationship
between investors and the population and its communities.”
Mexico: Sheinbaum still hot favourite
Last weekend’s first debate between the three candidates for President of Mexico, Claudia
Sheinbaum, Xóchitl Gálvez and Jorge Álvarez Máynez changed very little. I didn’t watch it live, I
saw a couple of news segments and reports, decent reporting called it boring and without
major incident. That suits frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum down to the ground of course, her big
lead in the polls suggests that all she really needs to do is avoid any political banana skins to
seal victory. Meanwhile, second placed Xóchitl Gálvez has been trying her best to attack
Sheinbaum but without much traction, for example last week she criticized her rival for living in
a rented apartment instead of owning her own home…if that’s all the dirt you can dig up, your
rival is pretty darned clean by any standard, let alone those of LatAm politics.
Market Watching
Next week
Enough for today. You don’t need me to tell me the gold stock X is cheap at U$2,350/oz gold.
Conclusion
IKN778 is done, we end with one bullet point:
 IMPACT Silver is a grubby, mediocre company that under normal circumstances is easy
to ignore and avoid, but at times like these, it fits the bill as a great way to play silver’s
likely upside. The right place to enjoy the immediate positive effects from silver’s move,
the right size to bring leverage to the table and the right set of financials to benefit
greatly from even modest operating and net profits, its potential reward easily
outweighs the risk of owning such a stock. Don’t expect it to be in my possession for
long, with luck it will be just long enough for a nive trading profit.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://impactsilver.com/investors/news/impact-silver-closes-c-3.5-million-non-brokered-private-placement-financing-
1/
(2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QyZeeZkyas
(3) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/2024/04/10/la-industria-del-cobre-esta-cerca-de-tener-un-nuevo-lider/
(4) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/global-copper-smelters-less-active-after-chinas-planned-output-cuts/
(5) https://panamericansilver.com/news/pan-american-announces-preliminary-economic-assessment-of-the-la-colorada-
skarn-project/
22

(6) https://panamericansilver.com/news/pan-american-silver-reports-additional-high-grade-drill-results-from-the-la-
colorada-skarn-project-2/
(7) https://www.eldoradogold.com/news-and-media/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/Eldorado-Gold-Provides-
Update-on-First-Quarter-2024-Tax-Impacts-in-Turkiye-andProvides-Conference-Call-Details/default.aspx
(8) https://lundingold.com/news/lundin-gold-reports-q1-2024-production-of-111-572-122762/
(9) https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2482-tsx-venture/vau/158745-initial-assay-
results-from-viva-gold-s-tonopah-gold-project-nevada.html
(10) https://events.crugroup.com/copper/home
(11) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/noboa-gets-slap-on-wrist-for-ecuador-s-raid-on-mexican-
embassy
(12) https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/10/americas/ecuador-mexico-glas-noboa-analysis-intl-latam/index.html
(13) https://www.expreso.ec/actualidad/politica/conaie-denuncia-violencia-territorio-shuar-tema-minero-196630.html
(14) https://www.tiempodesanjuan.com/sociedad/por-que-el-jefe-maximo-barrick-fue-critico-el-anterior-gobierno-
nacional-n372774
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
23

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
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GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
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New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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