IKN #777Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 777, April 7th 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads.up, In today’s edition, Gold melting up.
Fundamental Analysis: Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and the value in losing trades.
Stocks to Follow: SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to), Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v), Adventus Mining
(ADZN.v), SolGold (SOLG.to), Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), Equinox Gold (EQX), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), QC
Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Element 29 (ECU.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont Gold (NEM), Lundin Gold (LUG.to), Wesdome
Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Surge Copper (SURG.v), Palamina Corp (PA.v), Awalé
Resources (ARIC.v).
Regional Politics: Preamble, Ecuador and another Basket Case moment, Peru: President
Boluarte on thin ice, More Ecuador: Palo Quemado on ice, Argentina: San Juan’s new governor
has read the memo, Mexico: Parsing Sheinbaum on mining.
Market Watching: How to pimp your PEA.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m going to deploy treasury cash and add to open positions this week, leaving myself with
what I consider to be minimum reserve cash. As I don’t use margin, this effectively means as
from next weekend I’ll be fully bought the market. I’m not sure exactly how the cash gets
spread across the currently open positions, but next weekend will advise and adjust cost
averages accordingly.
In today’s edition
 The main theme to today’s edition isn’t any specific or particular stock, today tries to
hammer home a more general and important message about strategy in a fast-
changing market for mining stocks. As long as you’re not gambling all your money on
the riskiest end of the juniors market (though if you’re gambling with some of it, carry
on) you don’t really need me or anyone else to talk their book and try to guide you into
their particular favourite stock. Some of you may have worked it out before last week
and feel I’m late to the game but last week’s market told us, above all, that the game
has changed. It’s not the time to pussyfoot around and make nuanced adjustments,
now is the time to get 100% long this market and then hold on for dear life as the
metals and mining companies melt up. Gold may have impressed you last week and it
certainly impressed me, but we’re now highly likely to see a lot more where that came
from.
 As such, today’s main fundies section is not about Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to), it’s
about what my failed trades in Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) and price action since I closed
my failed trade can tell us. I could have chosen any number of stocks, FSM is the
1

example that many others should now follow. Don’t be afraid of your failures, they can
be your most valuable trades in the long-term.
 Regional Poltics has to cover the craziness that happened in Ecuador on Friday, but
notes how Peru and Ecuador are political mirror images to each other presently. Plus
and by populat demand, we consider what we know about the hot favourite to be
Mexico’s next President, Claudia Sheinbaum, when it comes to mining.
 The Producer Basket highlights the surprisingly weak recent trading in Lundin Gold
(LUG.to), plus the revival in Newmont (NEM). I also don my full Captain Obvious
uniform and say what needs to be said about Wesdome (WDO.to) (WDOFF).
Gold melting up
Today’s edition makes extensive use of quotes and snippets from previous editions of The IKN
Weekly, as strategy and the change in sentiment needs its examples, so let’s start as we mean
to go on with an excerpt from last weekend and the intro piece in IKN776, “Gold continues to
rally without the aid of capitalism”:
“We can now wait and see whether the next US macro data event, this coming Friday
and the US BLS Employment Report for March (expected +200k NFP jobs and headline
unemployment 3.9%) manages to move gold or affect its trading in the run-up. I doubt
either will happen, we’re at the stage when gold can do its own thing.”
We now know the answers: NFP Jobs came in at another blowout +303k, the headline
unemployment rate dropped instead of doing what the models say it should do, down 0.1% to
3.8%. Not only that, but the subheader data also supports the concept of a buoyant US
economy as average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% (that’s 4.1% Yo) and despite critics accusing
the data of being supported by part-timers and low-paying gig economy jobs, the average
workweek rose by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. In other words, Friday’s US BLS Jobs Report was full
of data that would have seen gold tumble if it had printed in 2023, instead it did this:
And that’s impressive, new USD records falling daily, no more sweating over the U$2,000/oz
line. Gold did indeed do its own thing and that fits into the view voiced in last weekend’s intro.
Here’s a second (shameless) auto-quote from IKN776:
“Since IKN770, the feeling that gold is now ignoring the incessant market noise and is
ploughing its own furrow has become even stronger. It may have taken (what seems
like) forever, but gold looks ready to re-price at levels that better reflects its hard asset
status.”
So do yourself a favour, filter out the mainstream
reporting before it affects your brain and here’s why. On
Saturday morning while piecing together today’s intro, I
decided to search for a report on gold’s price action on
Friday and put “Gold NFP” into Google. Here are the first
two stories that popped out, they made me laugh so much
I took a screenshot (right)
2

Before the US BLS Jobs Report for March and according to the bizwires, we awaited the impact
of the data, but afterwards, we read that “geopolitical tensions” offset the strong payroll report.
If if we grant “geopoliticals” more influence than they truly have in our modern times, this still
smacks of a reporter searching post-facto for
something that would sound logical to their
audience without having to resort to the scary
potential that gold is going up for its own sweet
reasons, not due to anything else. This is
exactly what we posited in last week’s intro,
entitled “Gold continues to rally without the aid
of capitalism” for good reasons, as this
impressive gold run is not being sponsored by
your average friendly local Wall St insto. Sure
enough, that didn’t just continue last week but
it got worse (or better, perhaps), as seen in our
GLD inventory tracking charts coming up now.
First the tonnage tracker (right) in which we
focus on this year, 2024 to date, to consider the recent fluctuations and believe it or not, but
last week actually saw net selling in physical holdings in the world’s #1 bullion ETF, down 3.74
metric tonnes to close this Friday at 826.41mt. Since that small trend break in mid-March that
added 25mt or so, the apathy for physical delivery has again waned and that, combined with
the rocket move in spot gold, means our Inventory/Price Ratio sentiment tracker (below) closed
at a new All Time Low:
8.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3
61/4/1 61/32/3 61/01/6 61/92/8 61/51/11 71/6/2 71/62/4 71/41/7 71/2/01 71/91/21 81/21/3 81/03/5 81/61/8 81/2/11 91/42/1 91/21/4 91/2/7 91/91/9 91/6/21 02/72/2 02/51/5 02/4/8 02/12/01 12/11/1 12/13/3 12/61/6 12/2/9 12/91/11 22/9/2 22/92/4 22/02/7 22/6/01 22/32/21 32/61/3 32/1/6 32/12/8 32/7/11 42/92/1
GLD gold holdings, 2024 YTD (metric tonnes)
900
890
880
870
860
850
840
830
820
810
800
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
I find this new sub-4X level quite incredible, if you had told me gold could rally to over
U$2,300/oz without significant inflows into GLD vaults this time last year I would have laughed
in your face. Over the last few months we’ve tracked how the market for gold has moved East
and how Central Banks have taken over where the financial community has left off, but at some
point we also assumed that the world’s big money instos, private banks and funds would join
the market for gold bullion and start to compete in the open market with China, India and the
world’s “other” CBs for bullion ownership. It simply has not happened.
So if it’s not clear by now, allow me to put it in simple terms: Gold didn’t move up strongly last
week due to a market aligning with its criteria, gold moved up despite the market trying its best
to throw obstancles in its path. It was an immensely bullish display by gold, not to mention the
rocket ctach-up we saw in silver and while we’re at it, copper did very well, too. Last week
wasn’t the culmination of anything related to gold, it was the start of something big.
[EDIT: This Sunday evening, news from Australia that Australia’s Westgold Resources (WGX.au
is buying Karora Resources (KRR.to) in a deal that puts a ticket value of C$1.1Bn on KRR. This
is another piece in the puzzle and we should expect more meaningful M&A activity as gold
prices rise.]
42/1/2 42/1/5 42/1/8 42/1/11 42/1/41 42/1/71 42/1/02 42/1/32 42/1/62 42/1/92 42/2/1 42/2/4 42/2/7 42/2/01 42/2/31 42/2/61 42/2/91 42/2/22 42/2/52 42/2/82 42/3/2 42/3/5 42/3/8 42/3/11 42/3/41 42/3/71 42/3/02 42/3/32 42/3/62 42/3/92 42/4/1 42/4/4
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and the value in losing trades
As noted in the opening bullets, today isn’t the day for a “new trade idea” or to bang on the
table about this-or-that stock, today’s main Fundies section is to underscore that the market for
mining stocks has changed and we need to change with it. In order to do so, I’ve selected a
recent failed trade to highlight what has changed so the narrative may be a little tedious, but
there’s a moral to the story.
Since selling my trade position in Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) in early January we’ve kept an
eye on the stock, its trade potential and performance, so it’s only right to come back again now
that the stock has done this:
Whoosh.
FSM has been one of the big beneficiaries of the precious metals rally in the last two weeks and
what’s more, its run has come a little later later than others in the sector, allowing those more
observant than your author time for positioning before the run caught real momentum. The
most recent bottom was also highlighted in IKN770, February 18th and the update note
“Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) at a buyable level”, which opined that all the bad news was now
in the stock, its price had Floor Level written all over it and risk was to the upside. Here’s how
we put it that day:
With so much bad vibes and news baked into the stock and the current price (U$2.80 to U$2.90
has held as a strong floor level on several occasions already), this is one that may surprise to the
upside the week of its YE report. Personally speaking I’m going to sit it out, as it’s way too cute to
sell a junior only to buy it back a month later at a slightly lower price (and it has to be said, my
personal antipathy for its management team colours my opinion…I’m human after all, not just a
number-cruncher). But that’s just me and the set-up for nimble money looks right here, FSM is
priced at dumpster levels it does not deserve.
Sure enough, its YE report came and we remarked on the positive reaction in IKN773’s “Fortuna
Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and its earnings week rally”. Another four weekends on, here we are with
FSM having used every ounce of its “leverage to gold” (and silver) to do what it did in the
market, as seen above So be it, but so far this sounds too much like “IKN Weekly Called A
Winner” because in point of fact, my record in this trade should only be judged by my own
money and that hasn’t done anywhere nearly as well. The real IKN plan around FSM as a trade
dates back to August last year when I decided to buy some for a near-ish term trade. The trade
set-up was specific, it wasn’t massive money and there would have to be a time limit on the
trade as well, framed as “sell end 2023, or first weeks of 2023 latest”. There was also a clear
price objective as “something over U$4.00” would get me in the selling mood and U$4.20 to
U$4.50 would mean taking profits for sure. Then as usual along the way we tracked the trade,
for example in IKN756 dated November 12th when reviewing FSM’s 3q23 financials as reported
that week. We liked what we saw that day and said as much, also underscoring its U$2.99
share price that weekend represented tremendous value, wrapping up the analysis that
weekend with these words:
4

Bottom line: Fortuna Silver (FSM) put in a great quarter and guided well for Q4, very much in line
with what we expected when taking our near/medium term trade position. The wide market hasn’t
moved in our favour and to your author’s surprise, FSM still trades at/around the U$3.00 price
point any fund manager covering this sector and worth their salt will have noticed the step up in
production, revenues and profits seen in this quarter and understand the bargain that FSM implies
today. All this needs is a gold rally and it’ll be back at U$4, then the next stop would be 1.0X
Price/Book, which would imply a 50% upside to this weekend. There’s every reason to expect FSM
share to get there, as long as the gold price provides a tailwind instead of a headwind.
Just two weeks later in IKN758 dated November 26th, FSM had rallied along with the price of
gold and sat at U$3.69. For sure I could have cashed in, it was set up as a near-ish term trade
after all but instead I went this way:
“Happy with its recent performance, but it was opened as a near-ish term trade on the company’s
turnaround and new production levels and we’re sticking with the plan. I’m looking for at least
another 10% added to the share price from this weekend and preferably 20%, but there is a clear
finish line to this trade and if the Market Gods allow, at some point I’ll take profits.”
And as FSM touched U$4.00 a couple of times just after, I almost-not-quite closed and took
profits, but more fool me I let the trade run. Sure enough it hit a brick wall when announcing
its 4q23 production numbers and 2024 guidance in the first week of January. The 2024
guidance disappointed the market, sentiment for the sector was poor, there was a rush for the
door and I simply decided that the trade had run out of time. Sold, then we’ve seen what we’ve
seen.
So much for my tedious trade history and a blow-by-blow on a failed trade, it’s time for the
reason today’s note exists: Why mention all this? A long-winded review of a past trade is not
why we’re here, there’s a moral to the story, which on another day might be that trade set-ups
are moments in time, how there’s no use in looking back and considering what might have
been. Or it might be “Do as I say, not as I do” when it comes to junior mining investment, as if
I’d made good on the clearly improving parameters at FSM since the end of February I’d now
be sitting on a nice win. Or maybe it’s the simple “Everyone has a plan until you get punched in
the face”, thank you Mike Tyson. But it’s none of those, the real moral of this story is to
underscore how important the price of gold (or silver, or copper) is to your investments in this
sector and how important last week’s changes in the prices of metals were. This is no ordinary
time in the metals market.
It’s easy to miss the forest for the trees and in our sector, it’s perfectly normal to see the prices
of the underlying metal, be it gold, copper, silver or whatever, rise and fall. We focus on those
moves on a daily or weekly basis, they generate comment and debate and of course, they are a
factor in our trade decisions. However, they are also the trees that can impede the view of the
entire forest because in moments like the one we have with us now, a true tide change event,
merely focusing on a change in the price of gold may cause us to miss what’s really going on.
We know that that better metals prices improve mine/project economics, but we’ve also
witnessed in the last six months or so how even how mining companies and this sector can be
roundly ignored by the wider world of finances and markets. In the latter half of 2023 gold first
approached, then beat, then consolidated above U$2,000/oz, but it wasn’t enough to catch the
attention of the world. It’s taken an extra push and where we are today for that to happen and
while I’m surprised that it’s taken so long, it is what it is. Mining stocks are ignored right up to
the moment they are not so when the change in optics comes along, our task is to completely
change our mentality toward our mining stock holdings. Not just a little, but completely. And
this is the moral that my mediocre moving and shaking in Fortuna Silver during 2023 and into
2024 delivers. I did nothing wrong in that trade set-up, there’s nothing to be embarrassed
about in the way that trade turned out (aside, perhaps, from not taking at least partial profits at
U$4.00 in late November). However, FSM is at a completely different price level today because
its market has completely changed and what’s more, I fully understand and agree with its new
price level. So if that applies to FSM, it applies to all my positions. Once I’m comfortable with
the fact that I sold out too early on FSM but did so for the right reasons at the time, simple
logic states that the reasons to hold any mining stock must have changed along the way and
5

that must apply to all my current positions as well as the price I must pay to open a new trade.
For another example, as wistful as I might feel about it now I’m not going to get sub-C$20 in
Ero Copper (ERO.to) so I’d better re-think the price I’m willing to pay for shares. Equally, up to
last week I thought 20c was a dirt cheap entry point for Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v) but now
that barrier is more likely to be 25c and Friday’s close still represents tremendous value.
Stocks to Follow
If memory serves, there has only been one week throughout the enture series of The IKN
Weekly (777 weeks since 2009) in which all the Stocks to Follow components were winners on
the week. Even this weekend, with gold having moved up by 4.58% week-over-week and
copper and silver also making big moves, we were never going to get that sort of performance
so seeing two losers (SOLG.to, MIRL.cse) and two unchanged stocks (NCAU.v, OCI.v) was only
to be expected. However, 13 winners means it was a great week and leading the list were hefty
percentage winners from Pan Global (PGZ.v up 27.3%), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 20.4%), Adventus
Mining (ADZN.v up 18.8%) and Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 11.8%).
With the addition of Orecap (OCI.v) to the Watch List we now have 17 Stocks to Follow, three
fewer than our self-imposed maximum. Ten of those are in the green, two are unchanged and
five are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.33 57.1% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Equinox Gold EQX BUY U$4.42 30-May-23 U$6.25 41.4% will take profits soon(ish)
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.445 -46.4% Permit approved, rebounding
SilverCrest Met SILV STR BUY U$6.81 31-Mar-24 U$7.17 5.3% Quality silver/gold producer
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.17 -22.7% (Glad I) avged down Feb'24
Pan Global Res PGZ.v STR BUY C$0.17 19-Feb-24 C$0.21 23.5% Looks tremendous value now
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 26-May-23 C$3.75 23.0% Quality Cu developer
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$1.52 26-Feb-24 C$2.08 36.8% M&A trade, working so far
Adventus Mining ADZN.v SPEC BUY C$0.285 7-Jan-24 C$0.38 33.3% Good Ecuador spec trade
Contango Ore CTGO STR BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$19.84 6.1% FY24 production, now moving
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.18 -12.2% Cheap Au in West Africa
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.95 31.9% Patience required…ugh
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$28.40 49.9% Hi-quality but no longer cheap
Orecap Inv OCI.v WATCH C$0.065 31-Mar-24 C$0.065 0.0% Arb on OreGroup hotpots
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.085 0.0% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.235 -65.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
6

Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to): POSITION OPENED. Due to last week’s edition going out a
day late, I had to wait until Tuesday to buy my SILV and as such, felt at the time a little
fortunate to have bought sub-U$7, despite having managed to sit and watch all those cheaper
prices come and go without me. I got on just in time, because the big silver move started the
very next day and while surprising in its fine timing, seasoned metals market watchers know
how the Jekyll & Hyde metal is capable of making these fast moves at technical breakout
moments, so watching U$26/oz move to challenge U$28/oz and the highest spot price since
June 2021 isn’t that much of a shocker, either. Our trade is therefore sitting in a strong place
fundamentally and if silver can consolidate its move from here, the richest bottom line from our
sensitivities table as seen last week comes fully into play. We’re already darned close to
U$2,300/oz gold and U$28/oz silver, if it holds the bottom range PE multiple would indicate a
U$10.14 target price, some 41% higher than this weekend. But in real terms I wouldn’t settle
for the low end of double figures and if the market gets used to paying for silver, that U$13.52
(+88.5% from today) is perfectly feasible.
SILV tgt sensitivities on EPS & Metals Decks (in USD)
Price Deck 12x EPS 14x EPS 16X EPS
1 (1.9k Au, 22/oz Ag) $7.12 $8.31 $9.50
2 (2.0k Au, 23/oz Ag) $7.73 $9.02 $10.31
3 (2.2k Au, 25/oz Ag) $8.94 $10.43 $11.92
4 (2.3k Au, 28/oz Ag) $10.14 $11.83 $13.52
source: IKN calcs & ests
However, there is a potential fly in the ointment (1):
A little insider selling is fair game, but it was a downer to discover late last week that SILV CEO
Eric Fier has been an insider seller of size recently, dumping around 2m of his personal
shareholding on the market. For his own reasons of course and after shooting a quick mail to
IR, I got a carefully spun message back saying that the company was “pleased Mr Fier” had
cashed out about half of his shareholding and they were happy he enjoy some of the fruits of
his hard labour. Well yes, maybe, but seeing a CEO cahs out on what looks like the first
possible opportunity and just before we get the 1q24 production numbers sticks in the craw
slightly and we’re bound to get some sort of relative weakness in the stock in the days ahead.
On trhe other hand (and as stated above), CEO Fier may be as guilty of bad selling timing as
anyone else and if silver does what I suspect it may do in the days to come and continue
climbing toward the U$30/oz level, he may end up with regrets of leaving money on the table
for someone else.
Overall, that size of insider selling gioves legitimate reasons to be leery and just when I’ve
decided to bite the bullet and buy some silver exposure, too. It may turn out to be unfortunate
7

and I’m not making any immediate decisions but will watch the trading in SILV with a more
critical eye than expected in the days to come. If SILV comes out with a negative update on
production in Q1 or a poor reserves update (which should also come out soon), there will be
good reason to jump ship and find another place for silver exposure, for example MAG Silver.
Time will tell but for the moment, it gets a watching brief. Hopefully these low level nerves
about a new trade are overblown.
Orecap Inv Corp (OCI.v): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. While its holdings in QCCU, MIS and
even the potentially interesting privco Cuprum are not to be shrugged off, the reason to follow
OCI these days is its holdings in the two hotpots stocks, the gold-focused Awalé (ARIC.v, as
tracked in the TinyCaps basket) and the copper-focused American Eagle (AE.v, as tracked in the
Copper Basket and yes I know it also has gold) and to consider the arbitrage this stock price
offers compared to its liquid asset holdings. So we’ll have the occasional comment on its own
affairs, but the default tracker for the time being will be this:
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
value
ticker shares owned(m) PPS C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.70 8.18 3.3
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.40 0.04 0.0
ARIC.v 8.33 0.86 7.17 2.9
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.66 2.75 1.1
QCCU.v 5.06 0.135 0.68 0.3
MIS.cse 24.71 0.035 0.86 0.3
subtotal 19.68 7.9
Cuprum 1.475 0.6
subtotal 21.16 8.5
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 22.66 9.1
At 247.714 S/O
Expect the table above and the following paragraph below
to pop up regularly:
As at this weekend the unchanged share price of 6.5c
represents a 21.5% arbitrage to the pubco holdings alone,
then a 40% arb to the estimated total asset value. This
doesn’t include the OCI land holdings in projects in Ontario
(McGarry, Mirado, Knight), Alberta (GSL Zinc) and Quebec
(Grizzly), so any deal that monetizes those in any way
would add extra gravy.
Adventus Mining (ADZN.v) and SolGold (SOLG.to): Two weeks ago our main event was a
call to buy Ecuador mining risk and while we were careful to point out that you can’t just but
any old thing out there, the trades in current Stocks to Follow holdings Adventus (ADZN.v) and
SolGold (SOLG.to) looked good. Here’s how they’ve
done since then (right).Have to be slightly disappointed
that SOLG couldn’t follow through last week on its good
start and ended down on the week in Toronrto trading.
However, ADZN is doing exactly what’s required of it
and with its permits in-hand, is a long way ahead of the
situation faced by Atico at La Plata (see Regional
Politics). Holding them both, it wouldn’t take much to
see them move a lot higher.
8

Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v): For sure a lot of stocks made good moves last week, for sure
there are other corners of my portfolio that under-performed the median, for sure this wasn’t
even my biggest win in real money terms (that was Rio2), but this one felt extra pleasant:
The only regret is not acting on my thought voiced in IKN776 to add some more while it was
under 20c and dirt cheap, because this weekend it’s merely cheap. The move was sparked by
the NR that dropped Wednesday morning (2) regarding the tin metallurgy at La Romana. We’d
expected it, CEO Tim Moody had telegraphed its contents in several media appearances by
saying they expected the assays to show the tin comes as cassiterite, the most conducive
mineral for tin production, and that met and recovery dynamics would be good. So when the
NR confirmed all that (and added a few numbers to quantify the data) we weren’t hearing
anything unexpected but the ways of the stock market are mysterious and it was enough to
bring attention to the right sort of junior at the right time. Aside Wednesday, it was
encouraging to see PGZ trade over 200k shares on Friday and hold the 21c share price into the
weekend.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): For the second year running, MIRL has failed to file its annual
financials on time due to observations made by its independent auditors. It now estimates filing
them in the middle of next month and in the meantime, the C-suite is under CTO. In other
words, in a month’s time we’ll find out whether the corrupt activities going on in the heart of
this company will finally be revealed to the outside world. However, as CEO Diego Benavides
has quietly taken out dual nationality with Panama in order to provide himself and his criminal
family with an escape route, it’s highly unlikely he’ll ever do the jail time he fully deserves. As
soon as this company falls apart it will leave the Stocks to Follow list, as it stands today its
presence is a reminder of my own masochistic tendencies.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Up two pennies
last week and that’s welcome, as is the
improvement in volume we saw, but it has to
be said, there’s still little sign of MAI breaking
out from this long-term and highly annoying
trading range. No rocket scientists required to
know what’s required, and in the words of
subscriber DP who wrote in this weekend, “…if
they (MAI.v) got permitted, it wouldn't
surprise me to see it double from here given
the price of gold right now.” Indeed.
Equinox Gold (EQX): The momentum in
EQX showed signs of slowing down last week,
but as long as the week-over-week wins keep rolling in there’s no need to take profits. Holding,
but I’m still ready to sell and deploy the cahs and profits in other places.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): A good move. We await news of the financing.
9

The Copper Basket
After fourteen weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 13.85% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1696.36 9.08 26.8%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 179.221 858.47 4.79 16.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 349.16 3.75 9.3%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 308.59 10.45 -11.4%
5 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 191.73 0.83 -39.9%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 172.49 1.58 -9.7%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 161.33 0.95 6.7%
8 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 222.86 142.63 0.64 70.7%
9 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 175.97 103.82 0.59 -6.3%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 108.87 76.21 0.70 169.2%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 43.47 0.68 17.2%
12 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 25.99 0.42 -31.1%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 23.45 0.135 12.5%
14 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 20.67 0.10 42.9%
15 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 14.88 0.14 -22.2%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 13.85%
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
And up we go. The Copper Basket average added
20%
exactly 5.87% on a strong week of trading for our
15%
sub-sector, though it wasn’t one-way traffic and
10%
there were four week-over week losers (LA.v,
BIG.v, CCCM.v, AE.v) and one unchanged stock 5%
(FDY.to) in the mix. But the ten winners 0%
dominated, with the biggest gains registered by
-5%
Camino (COR.v up 42.9%), Oroco (OCO.v up
-10%
29.3%), Element 29 (ECU.v jup 16.7%), Arizona
Sonoran (ASCU.to up 14.1%), Aldebaran (ALDE.v
up 11.8%) and Kodiak (KDK.v up 11.5%).
Very nice too, though it’s notable the biggest percentage
movers all came at the dog end of the table (and before
you write in to tell me that Oroco isn’t a dog, make sure
you dial up the three year chart). Along the way of last
week’s market, this was the Tweet (3) that got my most
positive response from readers (aside the one with a
photo of the new kid). Fairly straightforward observations
and nothing that seasoned wouldn’t know already, but it came back to mind while compiling the
Copper Basket table (dateline Friday evening) so it gets another airing. This doesn’t mean that
the rally is over, it just means that we should focus on our own gains and not worry too much if
a no-hoper stock such as COR.v catches a bid. Anyway, large or small here’s why copper
explorecos did so well:
10
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA
source: IKN calcs

That’s a great looking chart by any standard and includes the new 52 week high hit on
Thursday. Here’s what nice Mr. Market had to say about the move (4):
Copper prices hit their highest in more than 14 months on Thursday, helped by fund
buying after the U.S. dollar’s dip to a one-week low.
Three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 1.1% at
$9,365 a metric ton in official rings after touching its highest since January 2023 at
$9,397.50.
More funds that trade on buy sell signals from numerical models, known as commodity
trading advisors (CTA), were buying at close to $9,400 a ton, said Robert Montefusco
of brokerage Sucden Financial.
In old money, U$9,400mt is U$4.26/lb (4.26377 to be precise) and that means funds were the
buyers at the week’s highest prices, that may turn out to be dumb money and a near-term top,
but there is a clear change in the tide for copper since quoting the Andy Home column in
IKN772 dated March 3rd “Copper super-bulls bide their time in the options market” (5), in which
he observed that futures contracts were sitting neutral in the near-term while the copper bulls
were buying up the long-dated options, such as December 2025. A month on, U$4.00/lb has
been broken, back-tested and bought again and the same bulls reticent to make near-term
trades are happy to wager at U$4.26/lb. And let’s be clear, this came as a surprise to this desk
as well, as noted last weekend when I handicapped the copper price this way in IIKN776:
 10% chance that it breaks higher
 60% chance that it remains at/around U$4.00/lb
 30% chance we drop back under the U$4.00/lb level and return to those annoying
U$3.80/lb numbers
IKN777 back and happy to be wrong on that call, my mistake being to give too much weighting
to the internal aspects of the copper market and not enough to the sledgehammer that the
wide world of trading andf investment can bring down on any given sector at any given time.
For sure sector fundies are always part of the deal and we had a positive news snippets via the
China PMI number (see IKN776 intro last weekend) coming in stronger than expected, that
followed by more news stories of record lows for China smelter treatement costs. As noted a
couple of weeks ago, they denote a bottleneck in the supply chain, rather than end-user
demand outstripping supply, but the real reason copper went up last week and broke to new 52
week higher was the sheer weight of money moving in, a.k.a good old-fashioned “more buyers
than sellers”.
We move on to our weekly check of the copper inventory data, Cochilco back as our regular
source.
 A third week of calm in the world’s inventory stocks and another modest gain in
tonnages, with the aggregate for the three official world systems up on the week by
4,881 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 434,303mt.
 The Shanghai SHFE continued with its small additions here at (or near) the top of its
annual inventory spike, adding a thin but notable 1,621mt to close at 291,849mt. More
below with the dedicated charts.
 A small but notable addition at the LME too, with copper stocks up 3,600mt on the
week to close at 115,525mt and 2,225mt of that added into its Asia warehouses.
 The only week-over-week drop came from the Comex, another minor drop of 340mt to
close at 26,929mt. No biggie.
Again, very little there to act as a catalyst for higher spot prices, what we saw last week was
funds taking a newly bullish position. That may or may not have casued some overbuying, but
as with gold (and silver) now is not the time to get cute, now’s the time to buy, position and
hold through. Now for our dedicated SFHE charts and the first shows how, within a few
thousand tonnes, we’ve been at this new high level for four weeks and signs are that the flatter
decline of 2019 is a closer model than the peaks and drops of 2020 or 2023.
11

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
The second of our dedicated charts shows how this year’s soike takes us back to the inventory
levels we saw in the 2016 to 2020 period, pre-Covid and all other influences that came with and
after the panglobal bug. Whether that’s a good or bad thing is up for debate, for me it’s just a
thing.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 0202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52beF
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on some of our basket stocks:
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) and Faraday Copper (FDY.to): I’m putting these together
because in one note this week as they share several themes. Both are copper explorecos, both
are developing projects in the same corner of the world and while I’ve been more critical of
ASCU on its way down, both have been clear under-performers in their space. This 2024 YTD
chart shows ASCU and FDY next to the better performance by the main copper ETF (COPX) and
even the price of copper, the latter one of those sad benchmarks when juniors under-perform
the metal they want to develop.
However and as seen above, there was a clear difference between ASCU and FDY last week, as
ASCU rallied nicely last week while FDY remained UNCH. There’s a case, therefore, to play the
dumb trader and buy FDY for the catch-up trade potential now that the (slightly) more mediatic

and marketed ASCU has picked up a bid. There’s nothing bad about FDY, it’s just being ignored
slightly longer than ASCU and as such, there’s a fliptrade if money keeps flowing into the
copper space. Perhaps not the most sophisticated trade idea but it’s hardly the first time that
I’ve come up with a simplistic trade set-up and there does seem to be 10% or so ready to be
harvested from a quick in-and-out in FDY.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): Two weekends ago in IKN775 we mentioned that QCCU was
due to deliver drill results and on Tuesday April 2nd we got the first assay results from the new
drill program at Opemiska that’s looking to expand the resource footprint to promising zones
around the current resource. The title of the NR (6) is the clue, as “QC Copper Intersects
0.72% CuEq over 22.5 metres at Cooke-Robitaille” is good enough as stands, but when you’re
drill a brand new area it’s not something that will set the market alight. In total, four holes were
reported and aside the numbers from the headline hole, two of the other three holes hit at least
some mineralization as seen on this drill map:
Hole #19 was the miss, the others as seen in this table hit a few metres of interesting copper
grade and as such, provide evidence that the company’s geological theory is going along the
right lines, but that’s about all:
These are the first 2024 results from QCCU’s
plan to drill up to 5,000m, so plenty more to
come and we can be sure the company will
tailor at least some of its next holes to
accommodate the information gleaned in
these early results. In trading, QCCU tried to
rally with the sector and managed to add a
penny on somewhat improved volume, but
there was no sign of a true breakout. Work in
progress and unless the market suddenly
decides that what we already know about
Opemiska is enough to bid the stock up, it’s
one to watch rather than buy for the time
13

being. That said, I actually think Opemiska IS enough for this company to command higher
prices, but that’s just me. Watching the volume to gauge popularity and signs of any change.
Element 29 (ECU.v): The last we heard from ECU, it said that it was waiting to find out
whether it would need to run a prior consultancy process with the local community around the
Flor de Cobre project in South Peru in order to get its exploration permit for the Atravesado
target there. On Thursday, the director of the “Oficina General de Gestión Social del Ministerio
de Energía y Minas” (left in Spanish to show the mouthful), one Ronald Ibarra, in a conference
speech told its audience that the government would run 12 prior consultancy processes in the
country this, named the 12 projects and sure enough, Atravesado was one of them (7). In
Señor Ibarra’s words:
“The prior consultancy is a right of indigenous peoples and in Peru we have two types
of indigenous peoples; the Amazonian and the Andean. This is where the prior
consultancy is implemented and applied, taking place when the State is going to make
a decision that affects the rights of the communities.”
So now you know.
The Producer Basket
After 14 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 12.64% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 45.70 39.65 -4.2%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 31.36 17.86 -1.3%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 30.87 62.00 13.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 23.50 122.31 10.4%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 6.39 17.53 7.3%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 3.26 13.71 8.5%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 3.42 5.53 15.0%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 3.06 15.12 16.6%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.43 7.825 21.7%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.21 8.13 39.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 12.64%
You’ll be unsurprised to learn that Tier 1 and Tier 2 PM producers had another great week, with
gold up bigtime (GLD proxy +4.58%), the GDX up 7.0% and our list of ten managing to beat
that benchmark by a couple of tenths, stretching our lead to 3.5%. However, you may be
surprised to learn about a wide range of performances and at the rear of the field, we even had
a week-over-week loser in the shape of Lundin Gold (LUG.to down 2.5%). More on that one
below. Though not quite as bad as LUG, there were other relative laggards in Franco-Nevada
(FNV up 2.6%), Dundee (DPMLF up 2.8%) and Agnico (AEM up 3.9%), with Barrick this
weekend re-taking the second spot on the market cap league table due to its superior last three
days of trading, at least compared to what is now its nearest rival. We also offer mitigation on
Franco-Nevada (FNV); it’s a conservative pick and provides portfolio backbone and gets a pass
on a rocket week like last week. Not so AEM and DPM, and definitely not so LUG.
Meanwhile at the top of the list come the two stocks we included this year to provide “leverage
to silver”, as they say. These were riskier picks but the way silver performed last week suggests
that may now pay off, with Pan American Silver (PAAS up 16.3%) and Hecla (HL up 15.0%)
making mighty leaps and recovering a lot of the gorund they lost in Q1. The other big winner
on the week was also something of a surpise as Newmont (NEM up 10.6%) finally, FINALLY
saw the volume and depth of bids a stock of its size needs to move the needle more than the
sector average. It still has plenty of work to do though and by taking a step back, it’s quite a
14

thing to consider that gold bullion is up 13% in 2024 and in new all-time record territory, while
the worl’d #1 gold miner is still underwater YTD
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
16% comparative to GDX control
12%
8%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
Newmont Gold (NEM): A couple of charts with quick
comments. First up the ten day version (right), pitting NEM
against GDX shows when its new fanbase bought, i.e. Friday.
That suggests this move is all about Wall St generalists coming
for the stock instead of the gateway drug GDX, perhaps taking
their cue from Stan Druckenmiller and his well-documented
move into NEM during 4q23.
Which brings up the second chart, below
We covered this in the week Stanley Druckenmiller’s fund, Duquesne Capital, filed its 13-F on
4q23 activity. That was the intro to IKN770 dated February 18th and the piece “Drunkenmiller is
not your goldbug”, as we noted that the fabled fund manager’s timing on purchases in new
positions Barrick (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM) left a lot to be desired. But it’s okay, as having
The Druck long the two big-name PM producers as gold hits record highs can only do good and
help get the word out on the opportunities now afforded by our sector. To wheel out the quote
normally attricuted to Harry S Truman, it's amazing what you can accomplish if you don’t care
who gets the credit.
Lundin Gold (LUG.to): Surprisingly soft
and as a) there was no news from the
company this week b) the Ecuador political
risk is already baked in and c) is actually
improving for the mining sector,
presumably the recent underperformance is
due to this (8), as marked on the chart
(right). As this comparative chart of LUG.to
versus the GDX shows, the stock was
merrily tracking the sector median until the
reserves NR hit the week before last so
perhaps this should have had an airing in
15
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
1.0%
ikn 0.5%
gdx control 0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
source: IKN calcs -4.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

last weekend’s edition, but better late than never and
LUG.to: FDN avg gold head grade, per qtr
the market seems to have turned its nose up at the
LUG reserve update, which added 480k oz Au but
most of that by jigging economic parameters, rather
than adding rock via the drillbit. The other issue is the
slow drop of average grade, with those 5.5m in P+P
reserves now held at an average of 7.89 g/t. That
compares to previous averages as seen in this
tracking table (right).
To be fair, the LUG 2024 guidance is for gold
production “between 450,000 to 500,000 oz based on
an average throughput rate of 4,500 tpd, average
recoveries of 89% and average head grade of 9.9
g/t” and all those are in-line with recent quarters, but
it also shows why the company is spending U$34m to
bump up average throughput by 500tpd to around
5,000tpd as from 2025. This type of grade decadence
is normal, as is the company’s response to up
production in order to keep ounces produced steady,
but somebody somewhere has suddenly decided they
don’t like the idea. Which is slightly strange, because
the 2024 and 2025 plans have been out in the public
realm ever since LUG reported its 2023 YE, at the end
of February.
There may be something else going on of course, so
it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the next NR as LUG is
due to report its 1q24 production numbers in the next
few days, most probably this week. As the recent
quarters have shown, there’s been a clear drop off in
production and we need to see a pick up in cadence
in order to impress the market. The way LUG traded
last week suggests the jungledrums on Q1 are not
good. We shall see.
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to): This year’s best performer in our Producer Basket to
date, the change in sentiment in the gold market will surely suit this stock down to the ground
and there’s every reason to expect its price to kick on from here. One of the few independent
gold producers in Canada, its profile screams M&A
and I’d go as far as to suggest Alamos Gold (AGI)
as a near-perfect suitor for WDO as this market
heats up. At some point WDO is going to have to
eat or be eaten, so here’s a great example of a
stock that you shouldn’t examine for its recent
past history or shake your head about having
“missed at cheaper prices”. Today is Year Zero of
a nerw bull market for gold, buy WDO at the
market price offered and make your own money
on the trade, fret not about somebody else’s
profits or juicier percentages.
16
4.01 1.01 4.11 1.11 3.01 9.9 2.11 3.01 0.11 0.01 3.21 0.11 7.9
2.8
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
g/t Au
source: company filings
LUG.to: Annual gold production
002242
415824 923674 472184 000054
Oz Au
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000 250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e
source: company filings
LUG.to: Gold produced & sold, per qtr
06126
091601
50818
214521 506111 674801 282911
19269
046431 098911 196431 859821 117211
50089
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Oz Au
gold prod
gold sold
source: company filings

The TinyCaps List
After 14 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 79.38% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 221.5 27.69 0.125 92.3%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 67.27 57.85 0.86 537.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 41.72 0.39 129.4%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 21.77 0.145 -19.4%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 10.64 0.12 20.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 6.79 0.095 26.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 9.62 0.135 3.8%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 25.86 0.53 -29.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 219.21 23.02 0.105 16.7%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 16.57 0.14 16.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 79.38%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average had plenty of momentum coming TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
100%
into last week, so no surprise to see another big 90%
upleg. It’s now nearly 80% up on the year and with 80%
70%
just two of the ten with red ink. As for the week, 60%
there were two losers (BAY.v, STS.v) and eight 50%
40%
winners, with the best moves from Viva Gold (VAU.v 30%
up 40.0%), Surge Copper (SURG.v up 31.3%) and 20%
10%
Latin Metals (LMS.v up 18.8%).
0%
Surge Copper (SURG.v): The name of the game
for tinycap explorecos these days is to secure a
larger company as your strategic investor, as it brings peer approval to your project as well as
good cash to treasury without all that fussing around with private placements and broker fees.
Last week’s news from SURG fit the bill nicely (9):
April 2, 2024, Vancouver, British Columbia – Surge Copper Corp. (TSXV: SURG) (OTCQB: SRGXF) (Frankfurt:
G6D2) (“Surge” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a subscription agreement for
a private placement financing (the “Strategic Placement”) with a new cornerstone strategic investor, African
Rainbow Minerals Limited (JSE: ARI) (“ARM”).
Under the terms of the Strategic Placement, ARM, through its wholly-owned subsidiary ARM Copper Company
Proprietary Limited (“ARM Copper”), will subscribe for 39,608,708 common shares (the “Strategic Placement
Common Shares”) of Surge at C$0.095 per Strategic Placement Common Share, representing an
approximately 18% premium to the 20-day volume weighted average price of the Company’s common shares
on the TSX Venture Exchange as at April 1, 2024, for gross proceeds of approximately C$3,762,827. Upon
completion of the Strategic Placement, ARM (through ARM Copper) will own 15.0% of Surge’s issued and
outstanding common shares on a non-diluted basis.
That’s a good deal and APM is a good fit for this exploreco, so the price move on volume is fully
justified and while volume dropped off toward the end of the week, the SURG team cannot
complain about the response.
17
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpA
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Palamina Corp (PA.v): Some interesting insider activity (10):
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - April 3, 2024) - Andrew Thomson (the "Acquiror") has today
filed an early warning report (the "Early Warning Report") advising that between March 13 and
March 27, 2024 he purchased an aggregate of 77,000 common shares of Palamina Corp. (the
"Company") at a price between $0.10 and $0.135 per share.
Immediately prior to the purchases, the Acquiror had beneficial ownership, or exercised control or
direction, both directly and indirectly over (a) 6,038,302 shares; (b) 525,000 options; and (c)
394,000 warrants, representing approximately 9.2% of the outstanding shares of Palamina on an
undiluted basis and 10.7% of the outstanding shares of Palamina on a partially diluted basis.
Following the grant of Options, the Acquiror has beneficial ownership or exercises direction or
control over, directly and indirectly: (a) 10,389,329 shares; (b) 1,300,000 Options; and (c) 970,000
warrants, representing approximately 11.4% of the outstanding shares of Palamina on an
undiluted basis and 14.1% on a partially diluted basis.
The man in charge of PA (and sister company WINS) and with a good track record in the
mining sector, Thomson’s small purchase can be taken at face value but its size is clearly
designed to send a message, as he wouldn’t buy just enough to move over the 10% threshold
for automatic reporting otherwise. The other thing to note at PA is the arrival of a new VP
Exploration, Álvaro Fernández-Baca, one of the top geols in Peru and with a CV that includes
working for Hochschild, the Zafranal project before it was sold to Teck, and most recently Tinka
Resources. He must have come to the end of his tether at TK and was looking to improve his
rocklife and it’s a strong endorsement to see a geol of AFB’s pedigree come to this pennyshot.
Another reason to buy a few and I’m getting close to pulling the trigger now.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): The big winner in the tonycap exploreco world had a relatively
quiet week and saw price consolidation action for most of it, often running against the bullish
tide in what looks like profit-taking. But it perked up again on Friday after announcing (11) the
re-start of drilling at its prime target. Here are the three bullet points from the NR:
 New drill program is now underway at Charger following up on Awale’s recent drill intercept
of 26 g/t gold over 57m, including 45.7 g/t gold over 32m from 165m downhole
 A second rig will soon commence drilling at the BBM Prospect to follow up on its 75m @ 2.4
g/t gold equivalent intercept
 Drilling is fully funded by Newmont
So now you know and while it might not seem like a big step, this new round of drilling
represents an acceleration of the program and as the program is funded and run by optioner
NEM, that’s no mean achievement to be able to cut through the multinational’s infamously thick
red tape so quickly and get a change to the plans. That second rig coming to join the fun is also
telling. As a result the stock rallied (here vs GDXJ) and eked out a small win to add to its
previous rocket move. All good.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
18

Regional politics
Preamble
This weekend features “non mining” politics on two countries that matter to South America’s
mining scene, Peru and Ecuador. General level politics are not my preference for this section,
but in the cases of both Peru and Ecuador the position and image of their Presidents is
important for overall political risk and mining investments. In Peru, the world seems to think
that the Boluarte presidency is solid and stable, therefore positive for investment. That’s far
from the case, serious drama is one extra story away and even if she makes it to the end of her
tenure, what’s in the pipeline is likely to cause disruption to Peru’s risk image. Meanwhile in
Ecuador, Noboa’s move to violate the Vienna Treaty and stomp all over rules followed all over
the world by all countries and governments, up to and including sworn enemy States, has
brought condemnation from all corners of the international community and calls for his
resignation from inside the country. It all makes Ecuador look unstable again but in fact, Noboa
is in good shape this weekend with the people that really matter, Ecuadorian voters. His
hardball line against crime is going down well and that bodes well for the reforms he wants to
push through, including those that make the country a better place for mining.
Ecuador and another Basket Case moment
Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water. To save space in this non-mining
note here’s the BBC (12):
Mexico cuts diplomatic ties with Ecuador after Jorge Glas arrest
Mexico is cutting ties with Ecuador after police stormed the Mexican embassy in Quito
to arrest former Ecuadorian Vice-President Jorge Glas.
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said they had "forcibly entered" the
embassy in a "flagrant violation of international law".
Glas took refuge in the embassy last December after Ecuador issued an arrest warrant
against him for alleged corruption.
Glas's lawyer said he was innocent.
He has now been flown under police guard to the city of Guayaquil, and is expected to
await trial in a maximum security prison.
Some necessary background:
 Ex-VP Jorge Glas (under Rafael Correa and briefly under Lenin Moreno) is a corrupt
politico. Still popular among Correa’s party rank and file, he was briefly named as the
party’s likely candidate for last year’s election but was considered too polemic and
radioactive among the wider Ecuador population to run. His place was taken by Lucia
González, who eventually lost 48/52 to current President Noboa in the run-off.
 He was released from jail in 2022, but has faced new charges on a separate case of high
level corruption since last year, hence the recently emitted arrest warrant
 Pleading political witch hunt, he recently entered the Mexican embassy and asked for
asylum, a well-worn routsfor corrupt Correa era politicos.
 Last Thursday Mexico asked for safe passage for Señor Glas, in other words they were
about to grant his request and allow him to escape to Mexico.
 On Friday Daniel Noboa acted, ordered the raid on the Mexican Embassy citing “imminent
risk of fight” as the reason to break any number of international agreements on the
integrity of foreign embassies in host countries and all diplomatic hell promptly broke
loose.
Unsurprisingly, Mexico is up in arms about the incident hence the BBC headline above. This is a
direct violation of the Vienna Convention and it’s vanishingly rare to have an episode such as
this (Cuba once raided the Ecuador embassy during the Castro regime, those were the days
when Ecuador had a reputation as an asylum safe haven for politicians seeking help, but that’s
the only one that comes to mind) and in theory, Mexico has the right to declare war on Ecuador
due to this. No matter the rights or wrongs surrounding Glas, Noboa deliberately decided to
19

make this a full-scale international incident and under those circumstances, other countries
have had no choice but to support Mexico (else fear what might happen to their own embassies
dotted around the world one fine day). For sure the left wing regional countries such as
Colombia, Brazil and Chile were quickest and loudest but condemnation has also come from
Peru and Argentina, two LatAm countries as right wing and supportive of Noboa’s politics as
they come. Mexico has also received support from The USA and the EU and notably, countries
that you’d imagine as supportive of Noboa’s move has been conspicuous by their silence (e.g.
El Salvador). Meanwhile in Ecuador the Mexican Embassy is shuttered and opposition to Noboa
is having a field day, led by Rafael Correa who has been on a dozen media channels already
(plenty of sound bite worthy quotes) and his party has declared itself officially hostile to the
Noboa government, demanding his immediate resignation.
So, what was Noboa thinking? That’s easy enough, he’s parlaying his image as hardline on
crime and a hardball operator and using a Street Justice strategy. There’s little doubt that Jorge
Glas is corrupt and the new arrest warrant against his name isn’t some sort of political witch
hunt, it’s 100/1 against him being innocent and there’s a mountain of evidence to back up the
charges. The arrest warrant was deserved and yes, he was hiding out in the Mexican embassy
in order to avoid justice. Most people in Ecuador know that and as such, Noboa decided to play
to the crowd and be in no doubt, this will endear him to Ecuador’s right wing as the average
Joe in the country doesn’t care much about the finer details of international relations or
diplomatic protocol. The obvious risk of losing institutional support probably doesn’t apply to
him much, as we once again point to his high approval rating (to date at least) and his short
shelf-life as Head of State (he is finishing off the Lasso presidential term and the next
Presidential election is February next year, just ten months from now).
But I did put the word “probably” in there. This is Ecuador, the mini basket case and one of the
many epithets thrown at Noboa by Rafa Correa last week was “Banana Republic”, it’s difficult to
argue against that and it also means anything could happen. On balance I’m fairly sure Noboa’s
populist gambit is going to work and once he’s been dragged over the coals by the international
community and chewed out by the country’s elder statespeople, this will die down and his
target, Jorge Glas, is not somebody who’ll garner widespread support outside of Ecuador’s left
wing (he’s even a sworn enemy of the indignenous community and CONAIE, that’s another
story for another day). As such, once the furore has died down Noboa will probably (there’s
that word again) come out of this with his hardline image burnished even further and his
popularity in Ecuador intact and if so, it’s all good for the next 12 months in its world of
business. However, the risk is now that the 11 question referendum set to happen in three
weeks’ time turns into a popularity vote that Noboa loses (it’s what happened to Lasso, after
all) so there’s now plenty in play for that national vote on April 21st. With CONAIE campaigning
against the approval of the 11 questions and as from Friday joined by the Rafael Correa left
wing in active opposition to Noboa, it’s no longer a shoo-in.
Peru: President Boluarte on thin ice
The contrast between Peru and Ecuador this weekend is stark, with two right wing pro-
establishment Presidents seen doing illegal things but only one of them enjoying “Vox Populi
Vox Dei” support. It’s always wryly amusing to see a LatAm political corruption case make the
English language generalist media and such was the case last week with “Rolexgate” (may the
good Lord help us, it’s another –gate), let’s pick just one report so here’s AFP via Voice of
America (13):
Peru president's Cabinet wins confidence vote amid Rolexgate scandal
Lima, Peru — Peru's Congress on Wednesday granted a crucial vote of confidence to President
Dina Boluarte's new Cabinet, allowing it to proceed in office amid a scandal over the leader's luxury
Rolex collection.
The vote, which lawmakers passed 70-38, with 17 abstentions, gives the green light for Prime
Minister Gustavo Adrianzen to move forward in his post, which he took up last month.
The ratification of her new Prime Minister and cabinet is a microcosm of Peru’s current issues,
in which she gets institutional support from enough Congressional blocs because she’s happy to
20

play their game and fund their provinces, parliament and plans (i.e. stuffing corrupt back
pockets), all while the voter approval of both executive and Congress is in single figures and
hatred of the political class is widespread among the general public. It’s a recipe for disaster in
the next election and that means yes, I’m warning readers once again about the eminence gris
that is Antauro Humala. However, Boluarte’s admission last week that she had “borrowed” the
Rolex from her “friend” the governor of Ayacucho province, one Wilfredo Oscorima, a man with
a long track record of corrupt activities including prison sentences and attempted bribery of
police offcers sent to arrest him, hasn’t seen the issue fade away. And by some strange
coincidence, Ayacucho has recently received multi-million dollar financial support from the
national government since Boluarte took power. It all stnks to high heaven and her official
response to the investigations, that she “borrowed” the watch and it
has been an error of judgment to do so, was “The Dog Ate My
Homework” and met with near-total derision bny Peruvian media
channels that now smell blood and today Sunday, we have a new
salvo from Peru’s newspaper of record, El Comercio (right). That
says Dina Boluarte withdrew 1.8m Soles (a little under half a million
dollars) from her multiple bank accounts between 2016 and 2022,
some half a million soles more than her income during the period
and the type of report that does not appear in Peru under normal
conditions and certainly not in El Comercio, the media channel that
fights for the rights or the Right. As long as Congress has her back
she’ll stay as President, but that support could evaporate in minutes
of the self-serving toerags running Congress decide that it suits
their cause and the knives are starting to be drawn.
More Ecuador: Palo Quemado on ice
This time it’s mining related. Further to last week’s note on the fight brewing between the pro-
mining Noboa government and the anti-mining indigenous community led by CONAIE and
followed by plenty of other groups, we did get the court hearing on the suspended prior
consultancy hearing last week but it was duly suspended by the judge with no date fot the next
hearing (14). That puts the Atico Mining prior consultancy hearing on ice and that’s probably
not a bad thing, one less flashpoint for conflict in the country before the referendum happens.
Finally, for those wanting more on the Palo Quemado fight and the situation on the ground, Al
Jazeera has this longform English language report (15) out this very weekend that’s a good
piece of oldschool investigative journalism, with interviews from all sides and eyewitness
accounts from the zone. Entitled “In Ecuador, gov’t sees mining as the future. But communities
are divided” it’s highly recommended reading for the outsider looking in. Here’s a small excerpt
of one of the issues covered but there’s plenty more and to do the report justice, you have to
read it all.
To become fully operational, La Plata must receive an environmental license from the
Ministry of Environment, Water, and Ecological Transition (MAATE). This process
includes holding an environmental consultation with residents about any possible
negative impact.
On March 19, the government set up an information booth in town. The consultation
summons the residents of the two precincts in Palo Quemado that are considered
areas of direct influence.
But residents in nearby Las Pampas, which is not considered an area of direct
influence, fear the excavation will have an impact on them, too.
“The concession includes territory in Las Pampas, too,” Martinez said, “but they don’t
let us say anything.”
The residents believe the consultation is unjust because all critical voices have been
excluded. They claim that only 70 out of 1,100 residents will present their opinion.
Argentina: San Juan’s new governor has read the memo
When Marcelo Orrego won the election to become governor of San Juan province and take
control of Argentina’s banner pro-mining province, there were more than a few nerves in the
mining sector as to whether he’d represent a clear continuation of the policies set by the
21

Peronist/Kirchnerite governors Jorge Luis Gioja and Sergio Uñac in the previous two decades.
Therefore, the speech given by Orrego the opening of San Juan’s parliament last week (16) was
closely watched and came with plenty of cheer for those companies working San Juan in 2024.
The Chamber of Deputies of San Juan began the 2024 legislative period with the official ceremony,
in which Governor Marcelo Orrego gave his annual address to the people of San Juan.
Regarding mining, Orrego highlighted the significant measures of his (mining) ministry to improve
government efficiency in administrative procedures. He also highlighted the prominent international
status of San Juan in the production of critical minerals. With the aim of promoting genuine and
responsible development, the province has implemented a number of strategies to streamline
mining bureaucracy which look to simplify obtaining permits, digitize applictions and guarantee
sector transpareny. The first months of his government have seen significant improvements the the
permitting process, allowing exploration projects to begin their activities more efficiently. In addition,
a digitalized system is being developed applications regarding the mining law, concession
ownership and the mining cadastre. The province has outlined legislation projects that look to
ensure responsible mining, preserving the environment and promoting solid value chains. The
simplification of the permitting track and oversight of mining rights are fundamental steps in this
regard. San Juan has also done a lot of work on international relations, preparing a an uptick in
mining investments in Argentina. The inclusion of copper on the list of critical minerals has opened
new financing opportunities with German banks and the European Union. In line with these efforts,
the province will soon host its Tenth International Mining Fair with participation of delegations from
many countries. This event reflects San Juan's commitment to inclusive and sustainable mining
development.
So now you know. Rest easy those with exposure to San Juan in their portfolios, its reputation
as a top destination for mining FDI will remain intact under Orrego.
Mexico: Parsing Sheinbaum on mining
Tonight sees the first live YV debaten between the three candidates for President in Mexico,
Claudia Sheinbaum, Xóchitl Gálvez and Jorge Álvarez Máynez and due to the big lead held by
the government candidate Claudia Sheinbaum, perhaps 17 points over Gálvez with Jorge
Álvarez a distant third, I’ve received several inquiries about mining if Sheinbaum secures her
likely victory. Tonight’s debate date is a good moment to run over what we know so far and
also, Sheinbaum’s manifesto was published this week, so if we add the points made in
connection to mining to what she’s already said about mining we get three bullet points of
subjects and then an analysis of what it all might mean.
 Sheinbaum wants to position herself as the continuation of AMLO and the MORENA
government. Therefore she’s not going to rock the boat on current AMLO policies, which
include of course his “No Permits For Mining” quasi edict. However, she has been rather
coy on the whole subject of mining, which is its own message. We may see Galvez press
her on the subject either tonight or on the campaign trail, which may perhaps shed more
light on her position regarding the mining sector.
 Her manifesto includes a plan to accelerate the “energy transition” we all know about
these days. Her primary thrust will be via heating and photovoltaic solar panels for
private houses and commercial real estate, green hydrogen initiative, and wind, hydro,
geothermal and photovoltaic solar farms for green energy generation.
 In her manifesto that lists 100 policy points she’s looking to introduce in the first 100
days of her Presidency. They include her decision not to allow new concessions for open
pit mining projects and to revise all currently held mining concessions (open pit, UG,
whatever), taking into account the approval of local populations. That’s bad news for any
project unpopular with locals (of course), but should be welcomed by those companies
with good CSR and a working relationship with the local communities around them.
Sheibaum’s position will allow her to keep in the good graces of the environmental lobby
(no new open pit permits) but at the same time, implies that those currently valid permits
for open pit projects will be accepted. Add that to her desire to seek approval from locals
and it indicates we’re going to see permits start to be awarded again as long as the
criteria are met.
22

Putting it all together, there’s a distinct impression that she’s ready to back away from the more
stridently anti-mining position taken by AMLO. For sure you’re not going to hear that before the
vote, she’s not going to upset her mentor AMLO or the party line, but and if she wants to
comply with the key points of 1) promoting the energy transition and 2) making Mexico self-
sufficient on energy matters it means by definition she must allow mining to move forward. Her
policy positions for a greener future and for giving the right of decision to locals fit in with the
Morena policy, but there are clear gaps and differences with the current “No Permits For
Anybody” AMLO government and as being vague is its own message, that’s good. The bottom
line, and something Mexico’s mining world (i.e. CAMIMEX Chamber of Commerce) will know
well, is that she cannot expect to promote a greener future and a self-sufficient Mexico if
mining is stopped from happening. Those are clear policy points and the the implication of
(community approved) permits once she is in power is a logical conclusion (17) (18).
Market Watching
How to pimp your PEA
A most interesting blog post came up on the radar last week, written by mining consultant Ken
Kutchling and entitled “NPV a Disappointment? A Few Ways to Fix It”. Here’s the link (19) and
you’re strongly recommended to click through and read it all, as we’re only touching on the
breadth of the subject he develops in the post today and the details are worth your time. What
Mr. Kutchling does in his post is covered in his intro:
So, you just completed your initial PEA cashflow model and the resulting NPV and IRR are a little
disappointing. They are not what everyone was expecting. They don’t meet the ideal targets of an
IRR greater than 30% and an NPV that is more than 2x the initial capital cost. The project could
now be on life support in the eyes of some.
Now what to do? Its time to jump into NPV repair mode.
In other words, he’s about to roll out a whole bunch of ideas and techniques used by mining
companies and their consultants to pimp and improve the economics of mining projects in
PEAs. This is an important subject, as anyone who’s been around the block in this sector knows
a couple of basic facts:
 PEAs are used to make a project look good. They may be governed by 43-101
rules and intended as guide documents for serious companies looking to
develop projects, but in the real world they are documents that puff up a
project and make it look as good as possible in order to attract money to the
stock.
 The jump from PEA to PFS (and onward from PFS to full Feasibility Study) is
notable for the way in which project economics can deteriorate. Equally, we
also know that projects these days get green lighted on 43-101 documents
that often show very little relation to the truth of its capex and opex bills. Cost
overruns are more common than not these days and if you look long enough,
you’ll see how expectations go back to the start of the proicess, when some
P.Geol pimpede a project PEA in order to make it as attractive as possible.
So to the post and Mr. Kutchling’s main list comes under the title “Using the Time Value of
Money” (which I liked immediately) and here’s the explanation of what he means:
The discounting of cashflows in a cashflow model means that up-front revenues and costs have a
bigger impact on the final economics than those far off in the future. This effect is amplified at
higher discount rates.
Hence looking at ways to bring revenue forward or push costs backwards are typically the first
options considered. Here are a few of the ways this will be done.
That explains the concept very well, the job of the PEA masseuse is to either defer costs (so
they are eaten by the discount rate) or front-load revenues (equal and oppositie effect). He
then offers the following ideas with notes on each one. Here you only get the titles, please click
23

through and read the source blog post for the details but you’ll probably get enough of the
picture from the headers:
 High Grading and Stockpiling
 Stockpiling Tramming
 Milling Soft Ore
 Defer Stripping Tonnages
 Capitalize Waste Stripping
 Accelerate Depreciation
 Apply Tax Losses
 Leasing of Equipment
 Use Contract Mining
If you’re not sure about any of those technical terms do not fret, they are explained in the post.
Playing with any of those parameters allows you to improve the apparent project economics
without changing a single tonne of throughput or a gram of average head grade in your mine
model. He then offers a second category of “Other cashflow tweaks”, here are those headers:
 Increase Metal Prices
 Optimistic Dilution
 Reduction in Working Capital
 Buy the Royalty
 Reclamation Cost Equals Salvage Value
 Lower The Discount Rate
All show up in PEAs and a particular shout-out for listing my personal #1 bugbear, the way
juniors still insist on a 5% discount to NPV. For some reason juniors think the world will offer
them a loan at the nearly same rate as Treasury Yields (for the record, true cost of capital is
running at around 15%). A blog post well worth your time, as it’s a backdoor way into seeing
how companies manipulate the numbers in a PEA to attract your money. When your author
refers to a project having “a serious PEA”, it normally means it has few/none of the above list.
Conclusion
IKN777 is done, we end with bullet points:
 What’s less important is the exact name and ticker of your preferred mining stock,
assuming of course you’re not betting the farm on some pennycrapper run by scam
artists. What’s most important today is to buy, hold and enjoy one of those rare
moments our sector offers, the ones that make it all worthwhile. All boats will rise on
this tide.
 The headlines out of Ecuador this weekend may look scary and I agree it’s not a great
look for the country, but ultimately it won’t affect the great opportunity its mining
sector currently offers. Avoid the polemic projects, bet on the socially accepted ones or
those with permits.
 Today’s pep talk edition is all well and good, next week we’ll get back to doing some
real fundies work on companies, as Q1 production NR season opens for business. Eyes
on SILV, EQX and whatever stands out from the pack.
 Gold and silver are going higher, and would be nice to see copper join them again this
week.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
24

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=SIL+%7C+SilverCrest+Metals
(2) https://www.panglobalresources.com/news/pan-global-reports-positive-tin-metallurgy-results-from-la-romana-copper-
tin-silver-deposit-spain
(3) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN/status/1775615348437368888
(4) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-hits-14-month-high-on-fund-buying-and-softer-dollar/
(5) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-super-bulls-bide-their-time-options-market-2024-02-27/?s=03
(6) https://qccopper.com/news/qc-copper-intersects-0.72-cueq-over-27-metres-at-cooke-robitaille/
(7) https://energiminas.com/2024/04/05/minem-proyecta-iniciar-este-ano-consultas-previas-para-dar-luz-verde-a-
proyectos-mineros-por-us-1795-millones/
(8) https://lundingold.com/news/lundin-gold-announces-increase-in-mineral-reserves-122759/
(9) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-announces-c-3.8-million-strategic-investment-by-african-
rainbow-minerals-limited/
(10) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/204210/
(11) https://awaleresources.ca/2024/04/05/awale-resumes-drilling-at-the-charger-prospect-on-the-odienne-project-joint-
venture/
(12) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68748011
(13) https://www.voanews.com/a/peru-s-pm-seeks-confidence-vote-as-rolexgate-scandal-rages/7555713.html
(14) https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/economia/palo-quemado-sigchos-mineria-audiencia-suspendida/
(15) https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/4/7/in-ecuador-govt-sees-mining-as-the-future-but-communities-are-
divided-2
(16) https://sisanjuan.gob.ar/23-mineria/2024-04-04/55146-san-juan-impulsa-la-agilizacion-de-tramites-para-el-
desarrollo-minero-responsable
(17) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/mexico/claudia-sheinbaum-propone-aumentar-el-bienestar-en-
sintonia-con-amlo/
(18) https://amive.org/dialogos-por-la-transicion-energetica-justa-y-soberana-con-el-equipo-de-la-precandidata-a-la-
presidencia-de-la-republica-claudia-sheinbaum/
(19) https://kuchling.com/npv-a-disappointment-a-few-ways-to-fix-it/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
25

Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
26

INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
27

Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
28