IKN #776Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 776, March 31st 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, A good China number, Gold continues to rally
without the aid of capitalism.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to).
Stocks to Follow: SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to), Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to)
(WRN), Equinox Gold (EQX), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), SolGold (SOLG.to), Adventus Mining
(ADZN.v), Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview and quarter-end snapshot, NGEx Resources (NGEX.to),
American Eagle (AE.v), Element 29 (ECU.v).
The Producer Basket: Overview and quarter-end snapshot, Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to),
Hecla (HL).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v), Awalé Resources (ARIC.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Atico at Palo Quemado is the new battle front, Peru: A Rolex! a
Rolex! my kingdom for a Rolex!, Argentina has a new Secretary of Mining.
Market Watching: Alamos Gold (AGI) buys Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Orecap Investment Corp
(OCI.v): A cheap way to play two hot trades.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m a buyer of SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) this week and as from next weekend, the stock
will move from the Watch List to the main reco’s section of the Stocks to Follow. For more, see
today’s main fundies note on SILV. Also, Orecap (OCI.v) returns to the Watch List as recent
developments in its portfolio companies make the current price and interesting way of gaining
exposure to a couple of hot stories, as well as plenty of underlying value in its other holdings.
In Today’s Edition
 We’re a day late and a dollar short this week, as IKN776 extra 24 hours to finish
IKN776 due to a lack of sleep. Hopefully the house will get into a more reasonable
routine soon, but until it does I’m going to have to spread the writing over the week,
rather than try to do it all at the weekend (it’s a creature of habit thing). Please accept
my apologies for the late arrival and also note that the prices quoted assume this is still
the weekend, I haven’t updated data to take into account today Monday at market.
 Gold’s run into record territory couldn’t have come at a better time and no matter what
I think of the fundies at Equinox (EQX), there’s no selling this mini-rocket move until
momentum subsides. That one and more besides in Stocks to Follow.
 After pussyfooting around on SilverCrest (SILV) and missing the cheapest prices, it’s
put up or shut up time and the decision is to put up. I’m a buyer this week, today’s
main Fundies section explains why.
 The big strategy note on Ecuador last week seems to have been well-timed, as plenty
of juniors exposed to that country put in strong rallies last week. They include our
holdings in SolGold and Adventus, but Atico Mining (ATY.v) failed to join the party. We
1

use that case to add some extra thoughts to last week’s essay, that’s in Regional
Politics below.
 I took the news of Alamos Gold (AGI) buying Argonaut Gold (AR.to)’s Magino project
for what amounts to a pittance as being “wrong for the right reasons”. Which is just a
cute way of saying I was wrong, but it’s a mistake my method of investing will always
make. That’s in Market Watching.
 TinyCaps once again features Awalé Resources (ARIC.v) front and centre, as last
week’s barnstormer NR and assey results have moved it even further up the food chain,
it’s now a bona fide exciting discovery, the type our sector so sorely needs.
A good China number
What with the time zone difference, today Sunday gave us the latest China PMI reading for
March 2024 and the news is good (1). Here’s our regular tracking chart, updated accordingly:
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
2
von ced 1202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 3202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 4202naj bef ram
source: China PMI
The 50.8 reported is a big beat compared to the median 50.1 forecast going in, it’s also the first
beat China has delivered for six months and we haven’t seen PMI move this clearly growth
territory for a full year, ever since the late 2022 stimulus measures that coincided with the end
of its Zero Covid policy ran through the Chinese economy. Bullish news for copper and even
perhaps silver, which is nicely timed considering today’s main fundies section.
Gold continues to rally without the aid of capitalism
Nothing much has changed in the gold world since we last spoke. Industrialized democracies
continue to watch on the sidelines and gold makes move after move, with GLD inventories even
managing to drop last week as prices sprung into new record territory. There is retail interest of
course and in IKN773 we pointed the finger at the way the jewelry market is now a likely
competitor for physical bullion and unable to tap GLD’s sellers, but the gold market sentiment
leaders are still Central Banks, often the ones under the auspices of governments who know the
results of their elections before they occur.
GLD gold holdings, 2024 YTD (metric tonnes)
1000
980
960
940
920
900
880
860
840
820
800
Meanwhile, the sophisticated and returns-driven world of capitalism and their suited and booted
chiefs hang on the words of Jay Powell, who teases them with ideas for the start of the
32/7/21 32/7/22 32/8/1 32/8/11 32/8/12 32/8/13 32/9/01 32/9/02 32/9/03 32/01/01 32/01/02 32/01/03 32/11/9 32/11/91 32/11/92 32/21/9 32/21/91 32/21/92 42/1/8 42/1/81 42/1/82 42/2/7 42/2/71 42/2/72 42/3/8 42/3/81 42/3/82
mt 4.70 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2024 YTD
4.65
4.60
4.55
4.50
4.45
4.40
4.35
4.30
4.25
4.20
4.15
4.10
4.05
source: SPDR GLD data 4.00
32/21/92 42/1/2 42/1/6 42/1/01 42/1/41 42/1/81 42/1/22 42/1/62 42/1/03 42/2/3 42/2/7 42/2/11 42/2/51 42/2/91 42/2/32 42/2/72 42/3/2 42/3/6 42/3/01 42/3/41 42/3/81 42/3/22 42/3/62
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

loosening cycle and gets us watching the “Fed’s preferred data sets”, such as last week’s
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (2)…
Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in ticked higher to 2.5% on a yearly
basis in February, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. This
reading followed the 2.4% increase recorded in January and came in line with the
market expectation.
…the chart (right) from the Bureau of Economic
Analysis dedicated web page (3) doesn’t need
the numbers added to show how the 2022
spike has evolved into reading that are
generally uniform, but higher than anything we
saw before “transitory inflation” came along.
There’s another thing capitalist markets are
doing that gold doesn’t do any longer: Hang on
his Jerome Powell’s every word. We still get
those carefully staged moments such as the
one on Friday, (4) (5) and the Fed’s jawbone
may work in other areas of the economy, but gold seems to have stopped caring:
The recent rise in US inflation hasn't stalled the Federal Reserve's ongoing fight
against rising prices, Fed chair Jerome Powell said Friday, shortly after the publication
of fresh government data.
Powell spoke shortly after the Commerce Department released data showing the Fed's
favored inflation gauge rose at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in February, up 0.1
percentage points from a month earlier.
And…
"We didn't overreact to the good data we had the second half of last year," he said.
"And you won't hear us overreacting to these two months that are higher."
In other periods that would be enough to put the brakes on gold’s rally, but not any more
[EDIT: We’re hitting new highs tonight Sunday in Asia trading, as I write these words gold is up
another U$20 at U$2,237/oz] and, long story
short, we have the same market this week as last
week…and the week before come to think of it,
the only difference being the number of US Dollars
you need to buy and ounce of gold. We can now
wait and see whether the next US macro data
event, this coming Friday and the US BLS
Employment Report for March (expected +200k
NFP jobs and headline unemployment 3.9%)
manages to move gold or affect its trading in the
run-up. I doubt either will happen, we’re at the
stage when gold can do its own thing.
And does this fit with our expectations? Yes, it does! Back in IKN770 dated February 18th, the
main intro section “Gimme Shelter” ended with…
“…any student of the market knows by now that the Fed has no choice but to start
cutting rates as 2024 rolls out. The debate is now on whether it’s going to be March or a
little later, but as far as gold is concerned there’s no point in sweating that small stuff.”
…and while that may not be a call the average goldbug finds too difficult to make, the timing
fits nicely and that matters. Since IKN770, the feeling that gold is now ignoring the incessant
market noise and is ploughing its own furrow has become even stronger. It may have taken
(what seems like) forever, but gold looks ready to re-price at levels that better reflects its hard
asset status. Add in the way we believe the jewelry sector can no longer rely on GLD inventory
and gold has been a non-stop buy, joining the list of “buy the dip” vehicles that may knee-jerk
to Fed’s declarations, but quickly shake off near-term sentiment. So the bottom line to this
week’s intro is the same as before; this is the time to be long gold, HODL gold and make sure
your mining “leverage plays” are in place. Until further notice, don’t complicate your life.
3

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to)
“In delay there lies no plenty”
Twelfth Night, Act 2, Sc3, L42
When you run out of reasons not to be long a stock, buy it.
Today’s main fundies section pulls the trigger on SilverCrest Metals Inc (SILV) (SIL.to), on the
radar of The IKN Weekly for over half a year and on our Watch List for two months and
counting. We first covered SILV in IKN745 dated August 27th 2023 in the main fundies note
“SilverCrest Metals Inc (SILV) (SIL.to): Considering the financials” and due to the interesting
potential it showed that day, kept an eye on the stock through 2023. In IKN745, SILV had just
sold off on the back of the 43-101 Technical Report published at the end of June, which cut the
resource size and made adjustments to the size and method of mining. We argued at the time
that the market was disappointed for the wrong reasons and the company was simply updating
the world on the knowledge it had gained about Las Chispas since getting underground access
to orebody, instead of relying on the drill assays of before. At the time SILV was a U$4.83
stock, so a purchase at the time would have turned out well and given a 37.9% return to date,
so call me stupid for not buying. Indeed, SILV didn’t even make the Watch List until IKN767,
dated January 28th 2024 and the note “SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) 4q23 production”
which covered, yes you guessed it, the company’s Q4 production numbers. It had again just
sold off and I again thought that rather unfair, not least because there were plenty of
indications that SILV had its costs under control and would please the market when it reported
its financials. Those dropped around three weeks ago and…
…went down very well. The reception of the 4q23 and YE financials and guidance for 2024 blew
the stock out of the “U$5.50 to U$6.00” trading range that I believed very buyable and made
me feel rather stupid, as one of the premises of placing SILV on the Watch List was to consider
a trade around the publication of the YE financials.
More fool me and what’s more, it may be tempting fate to buy a stock majority exposed to The
Devil’s Own Metal while the stock is priced at U$6.66 but there comes a point when reasons to
own become too compelling. This note will try to remain concise and not cover items and
subjects in previous episodes (and by now the TL:DR among you know I’m buying SILV so feel
free to skip straight to Stocks to Follow). For the rest, three things today:
 A look at the updated company numbers and main points from its 4q23 financials
 SILV 2024 guidance and adjustments to our model
 Quick thoughts on the price of silver going forward
SILV data and 4q23 financial overview: The updated corporate topbox shows the new
share count (SILV has bought back a few shares, not a bad thing) and the market cap is now
just over the U$1Bn mark, normally too rich for The IKN Weekly but as this company is
essentially a single asset story, not a difficult exception to make:
4

Shares out: 146.935m
Options: 4.105m
RSU/DSU/PSU: 0.617m
Fully diluted: 151.657m
Current share price: U$6.66
Market Cap: U$1.01Bn
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.75=CAD$1
As for the 4q23 results, we check out the 4q23 operations overview and the EPS chart as a
hack on the bottom line:
SILV: Quarterly Earnings overview
Here’s how our best guesses going into the Q4 earnings (see IKN767) compared to reality:
 Our Revenues Guesstimate was U$61.15m. The reality was U$61.32m which means
we were very close
 Our COGS Guesstimate was U$23m. This was slightly low compared to the reality of
U$24.373m, but we weren't that far out
 Our Mine Operating Income Guesstimate was U$38.15m. This was slightly high
compared to the U$36.947m result and for the same reason above, slightly higher
costs.
Then…
 Our Net Earnings Guesstimate was U$30m with EPS of 20.6c. This was low
compared to the reality of U$35.991m in net earnings and an EPS of 24.5c, the
difference due to SILV deferring tax payments to 1q24 (i.e. this quarter). If it
weren't for that we'd again be close.
In other words, our model was reasonably close to the reality at SILV if it hadn't been for the
fact that the company deferred tax payments. That also shows up when we check out the
balance sheet items, as current liabilities spike a little to U$51.773m with U$33.614m of that
being tax liability. We expect that to return to previous levels when SILV reports its Q1, as seen
in the chart below right.
As for assets, SILV is now making good money and we expect that to continue and the
company builds treasury this year, but that tax payment will take a chunk out of the 1q24
5
7.2 8.0 9.1
8.04
3.41 5.62
0.85
4.22
6.53
0.26
7.32
3.83
8.36
4.62
5.73
3.16
4.42
9.63
U$m SILV: EPS, per qtr
80
revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
8.8- 1.2-
8.4
9.5- 0.6-
2.2-
2.71
3.21
5.81 0.61 5.02
5.42
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
U$/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs
SILV: Assets Breakdown per qtr
500 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1
inventories SILV: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
U$m f o ix th e e d r current 120 110 cash&ST 100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1
U$m
LT liab current liab
source: company filings

SILV: Working Capital per qtr
numbers. However, it's a minor point as to exactly
when a company pays its tax bill and overall SILV is
performing largely as expected. That shows most
clearly in the working cap tracking chart (right), as
that cancels out the effect of the pending tax bill. As
at end 4q23 stood at U$126.76m, a mere U$3.24m
below our guesstimate and that’s fine.
These financial results caused SILV to jump the way
seen in the price chart seen above, which was good but at the time, I couldn't help wondering
whether the market considered the quarter a "big beat" due to the deferred tax payment. Yes it
was a good quarter, but basically what we had in mind.
SILV 2024 guidance and adjustments to our model: Which brings us to the published
guidance for this year, also revealed at the time but to nobody’s great surprise, matched the
forecast used in the 2023 Technical Report closely. SILV is currently transitioning to a new mine
contractor, here’s a chunk from the March 11th cover NR (6) regarding that:
The new mining contractor, a subsidiary of Dumas Contracting Ltd. (“Dumas”), arrived at site in
early February 2024 to begin mobilization, which is expected to continue through Q3, 2024.
Guidance for 2024 incorporates assumptions related to the transition of contractors and ramp-up of
Dumas, including some one time costs.
As noted in IKN767, Dumas wouldn’t have taken the job without a clear indication of future
production schedules and for that, all we need to do was look at page 424 of the new 43-101:
SILV had already indicated that AISC would be somewhat higher than the U$13.48/oz
assumption from mid-2023, so the table they offered for official 2024 guidance contained zero
surprises:
Therefore, our model for 2024 hasn’t changed very much from that of IKN767, with no big
surprises on the production side. However, the combo of more cost data from its most recent
quarter and the new price deck for silver and gold means there are significant changes to our
price targets and to outline those, here come the updated tables.
The main changes to the production and metals revenues model are:
 New price decks. Gold’s impressive run means the U$2k assumption is something of
a lowball these days and our best-fit to current prices now assumes U$2,200/oz gold
and U$25/oz silver.
6
68.621
96.222
33.391 43.671 55.971 26.061 17.641
70.921
198.47 464.17
553.69 33.811 67.621 541
240
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80
60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

 Slightly higher throughput: We now assume 450,000mt goes through the mill.
 Lower TC/RC charges: We made it clear our previous assumption veered sharply to
the conservative, but there was no need to be so far away from the recent results in
Q3 and Q4. So we’re now more in line with the modest middlemen charges we’ve
seen.
SILV: 2024 Production and Metals Revenues (U$m)
Price $1,900/oz Au $2,000/oz Au $2,200/oz Au $2,300/oz Au
Deck $22/Oz Ag $23/Oz Ag $25/Oz Ag $28/Oz Ag
thruput (mt/yr) 450000 450000 450000 450000
Ag grade (g/t) 396 396 396 396
Ag prod(Moz) 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
U$/oz 22 23 25 28
silver revs 122.3 127.9 139.0 155.7
Au grade (g/t) 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02
Au prod (oz) 57,004 57,004 57,004 57,004
U$/oz $1,900 $2,000 $2,200 $2,300
gold revs 108.3 114.0 125.4 131.1
Tot gross revs 230.6 241.9 264.4 286.8
TC/RC+NSR 22.7 23.8 26.0 28.2
Top line sales 226.0 237.0 259.1 281.0
Sources: SILV data, IKN calcs and estimates
If we take the U$25/oz Ag and U$2,200/oz Au as our new baseline for price targets, that means
SILV is good for top line sales revenue of U$259.1m this year. That then moves through our
2024 model income statement:
SILV: 2024 Condensed Income statement forecast (U$m)
Four 1 2 3 4
Price $1,900/oz Au $2,000/oz Au $2,200/oz Au $2,300/oz Au
Decks $22/Oz Ag $23/Oz Ag $25/Oz Ag $28/Oz Ag
Tot gross revs 230.6 241.9 264.4 286.8
TC/RC+NSR 22.7 23.8 26.0 28.2
Top line sales 226.0 237.0 259.1 281.0
COGS 51.8 51.8 51.8 51.8
Depreciation 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0
SGA+R&D 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4
Op income 127.9 138.9 161.0 182.9
Interest (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0)
Workers Part. 10.4 11.3 13.0 14.8
Tax 32.3 35.0 40.5 45.9
Net income 87.2 94.7 109.5 124.2
Shares out 146.94 146.94 146.94 146.94
EPS 0.59 0.64 0.75 0.85
Sust. Capex 40 40 40 40
FCF 1.02 1.07 1.17 1.27
Sources: SILV data, IKN calcs & estimates
Costs are now in-line with what we’ve seen in the most recent quarters, plus assumptions that
the one-off charges coming with the contractor change will turn into lower unit costs at the
back end of 2024. There are a couple of tweaks in G&A and interest (SILV) should receive more
7

interest from cash than it pays to service its tiny outstanding debt line), but we do adjust the
tax number to assume 2023 tax is paid from treasury, rather than taking it from 2024
operations. Once that’s all done and dusted, our preferred price deck shows a net income of
U$109.5m, or 75c EPS. That generates this target:
SILV Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data for SILV based on
Price deck 1 2 3 4 current price deck (U$25/oz Ag, U$2,200/oz Au)
Sales (U$m) 226 237 259 281 12-month target $8.94 based on 12x EPS
Sales growth 5% 9% 8% Upside to target 34%
EPS 0.59 0.64 0.75 0.85 Mkt cap (U$m) $979 Enterprise value $923
FCF 1.02 1.07 1.17 1.27 P/sales (1) 4.13 EV/sales (1) 3.89
P/E (1) 11.2 EV/EBITDA (1) 6.2
P/E (2) 10.3 EV/EBITDA (2) 5.7
P/E (3) 8.9 EV/EBITDA (3) 5.0
The 12X EPS is where SILV was priced in 2023 but, with the advent of higher metals prices,
profits and therefore our target rises to U$8.94 for the year on current data, representing an
upside of 34%. That’s not so much compared to the type of multi-bagger gains people often
expect from the junior mining sector and I’m the first to agree with that, but here we stress
that our target is both conservative and lowball. Things could become a lot more interesting if
the metals rally consolidates (as we think it will) and as such, here’s a sensitivities table:
SILV tgt sensitivities on EPS & Metals Decks (in USD)
Price Deck 12x EPS 14x EPS 16X EPS
1 (1.9k Au, 22/oz Ag) $7.12 $8.31 $9.50
2 (2.0k Au, 23/oz Ag) $7.73 $9.02 $10.31
3 (2.2k Au, 25/oz Ag) $8.94 $10.43 $11.92
4 (2.3k Au, 28/oz Ag) $10.14 $11.83 $13.52
source: IKN calcs & ests
Silver miners and especially profitable ones tend to be given higher valuation multiples than
their golden cousins (and I’ve never really understood why, but it is what it is). As such, the
current 12X applied multiple is at the low end of the spectrum and if the sub-sector begins to
heat up, I’d expect the market would be willing to pay up to 16X for an established and
profitable silver producer such as SILV. As the above chart shows, if prices rise and sentiment
goes into overdrive, a target price of U$13.52, representing an upside of a cool 103%, is by no
means out of the question.
Of course, if silver starts to run there will be many silver stocks that return doubles at a
minimum, with multi-baggers common sights. It therefore needs to be stated clearly at this
point, if you’re looking for a speculative silver play for one of those fabled 5x or 10x wins, this
isn’t the stock for you. Instead, it’s the stock for a person like me who…
 Likes the chances of silver in the near future
 Is not expecting the massive gains in silver that the extreme end of the metals and
mining commentariat shout about
 Wants plenty of protection against silver’s propensity to under-perform or disappoint
In the case of SILV, one part of the equation is how close on half its projected earnings come
from the more financially solid world of gold. For another and as seen in the above chart, even
if silver drops in price (and gold goes back to the U$2,00/oz line), thanks to the maturing and
profitable operations at Las Chispas we can still expect a modest win from this weekend’s
U$6.66 share price, as a move to U$7.73 using the current 12X earnings multiple would still be
16% higher than today. Be clear, an investment in SILV ,eans choosing quality over speculation
8

and that means lower upside expectations. Though I certainly wouldn’t complain about hitting a
103% win, no matter how well the penny dreadfuls do in the same time period.
Some brief thoughts on the price of silver going forward: It doesn’t matter how you
measure silver, be it on the long-term price chart…
…the post-pandemic period versus gold…
…or any other method or time period, it’s not a difficult call to say silver has under-performed.
The classic method of displaying silver’s comparative performance is via the gold/silver ratio
(GSR), with this chart showing the same information cut and sliced in a different way:
Way back when, the market used to talk up the 75:1 ratio level between gold and silver as
some sort of benchmark, a median around which the ratio would move, but as the above chart
suggests that level is a thing of the past. While collating notes into some sort of order for this
look at SILV on Thursday afternoon and watching gold hit new ATH, I couldn’t help but wonder
how many readers of The IKN Weekly would have guessed that gold would trade well North of
U$2,200/oz while its near neighbour (on the Periodic Table at least) silver traded under
U$25/oz. Personally speaking I’m not massively surprised, silver cynic that I am, but there is a
limit to the ratio and with the market dynamic now changing, I think we’re getting close to that
9

moment. The current 89X GSR is all about the way the pure monetary metal has finally caught
a bid against silver, with one foot in the world of investment (speculation) and the other in
industrial demand, with around 50% of annual production put to use as a auqasi commodity.
Traditionally, a rise in the GSR indicates a higher potential for recession (or at least economic
downturn), so seeing silver lag its bigger sister is an indication of market nerves. That’s all
about the way the Fed doesn’t want to bering its restrictive, tightening cycle to an end (to
combat inflation) but we should know by now that it’s merely a matter of time before world
rates start to drop again. That’s the point when fears of recession subside, at least for a
temporary period, and that should be the moment when silver starts to out-perform gold,
assuming that we haven’t fallen into recession before the loosening begins. In so many words,
there is a peak to the GSR and the way 2024 is shaping up suggests we’re close to the top and
it’s worth considering that we wouldn’t even need a return to the fabled 75X level, at 80X with
gold at U$2,200/oz puts silver on U$27.50/oz, more than enough to start the speculators
shouting “silversqueeze!!!” from the rooftops with multiple exclamation points in their script.
We’re not asking for the world here and you’re never going to see me predict silly numbers for
an ounce of silver, but as seen in our model U$28/oz would be enough to set the share price
running hard and offering a double to this weekend’s money.
Bottom line: SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) has proven itself to be one of those rare silver minrs
capable of making great money. That’s all about the quality of the Las Chispas deposit and it
means a guy like me, cynical about the hype and nonsense spouted abou silver, can find a
reasonable way of playing the its potential upside in what now looks like a conducive market for
The Devil’s Own Metal. I’m a buyer of SILV this week and it will be one of the recommended
stocks as from next weekend.
Stocks to Follow
Of our current band of 16 covered stocks, nine were winners last week (MAI.v, EQX, SOLG.to,
MARI.to, WRN.to, ADZN.v, NCAU.v, ALDE.v, ERO.to, SILV), two were unchanged (MIRL.cse,
PAU.cse) and just four losers among the bunch (RIO.v, PGZ.v, CTGO, MENE.v) which is a pretty
good result for such a copper-heavy portfolio at the moment. Some big winners in there too,
thanks to the moves in SolGold (SOLG.to up 20.0%), Adventus (ADZN.v up 14.3%) and
Equinox (EQX up 12.9%) and all those are welcome to repeat their efforts this week.
We currently have 16 stocks on our list, four under our self-imposed maximum. Nine of those
are in the green, seven are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.31 47.6% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Equinox Gold EQX BUY U$4.42 30-May-23 U$6.02 36.2% will take profits soon(ish)
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.37 -55.4% Permit approved, rebounding
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.18 -18.2% (Glad I) avged down Feb'24
Pan Global Res PGZ.v STR BUY C$0.17 19-Feb-24 C$0.165 -2.9% Looks tremendous value now
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 26-May-23 C$3.52 15.4% Quality Cu developer
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$1.52 26-Feb-24 C$2.07 36.2% M&A trade, working so far
Adventus Mining ADZN.v SPEC BUY C$0.285 7-Jan-24 C$0.32 12.3% Good Ecuador spec trade
Contango Ore CTGO STR BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$19.75 5.6% FY24 production, now moving
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.18 -12.2% Cheap Au in West Africa
10

SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.85 18.1% Patience required…ugh
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$26.12 37.9% High quality Cu prod, cheap
SilverCrest Met SILV BUYING U$5.62 21-Jan-24 U$6.66 18.5% TIME TO BUY
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.08 -5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.215 -65.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to): BUYING. A quick line here to confirm the purchase
decision, plus a ten-day chart that shows how SILV hasn’t been in the front rank of movers in
this current tide.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): Up a penny two weeks ago, up a penny last
week, WRN is consolidating its swift move up on the back of the news of its new CEO,
obviously put in to sell Casino to the highest bidder. All is Quiet on the Western Yukon front at
the moment and with NEM marketing Coffee (among other assets), the radio silence makes
sense. If this sells for under C$3 I’ll be annoyed, very easy to hold thru and ride the copper
wave in the meantime.
Equinox Gold (EQX): The only thing that’s changed is the price. We’re still lukewarm about
the way EQX has performed over the last year but
as noted last weekend, the recent move in gold has
brought the desired “leverage to gold” and that
only accelerated last week. Very popular on the bid
on Friday as quarter-end tape painting took effect,
EQX is a reminder how the good trades don’t have
to come from good companies.
A final thing that hasn’t changed: I’ll still take
profits on this when the current momentum runs
out. As far as I’m concerned EQX is a simple vehicle
to make retail profits and there’s zero conviction
about EQX’s attractiveness or future as a mining
company, Greenstone or no Greenstone. It’s nothing personal, strictly business.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): Such an annoying stock to own. ALDE gave us news on drill results from
five holes in this March 28th NR (7) “Aldebaran Expands Known Mineralization at the Altar
Copper-Gold Project” and the cuts were in line with results seen before, though the company
was keen to point out that this part of the program extended known mineralization to the North
and South, which is fair enough. However, the messaging went downhill fast when Kevin “Rock
Doctor” Heather decided to say this about hole 239:
Hole 239 is interesting as the hole ended due to drill rig depth capacity; however, the
grades are increasing with depth, which suggests we may be getting close to an
undiscovered mineralized porphyry intrusion.”
11

In other words, ALDE is trying to drum up interest in the cheapest and most hackneyed way
known to geology: “Hey guys, I think we’ve found the feeder!” These people need to decide
who their audience really is, as the idea of flirting with naïve retail who fall for the sequins and
rah-rah sits at a polar opposite to the type of investor they should be attracting (or at least
trying to attract. ALDE’s low overall grade puts off the casual observer, but those with more
knowledge of how mining really works see the scale of the system and how that would attract
the type of world-class miner looking for big mines that move their dials. ALDE shouldn’t be
trying to attract the casual flipper, it’s going to put off the real mining people and giving us the
“open at depth” baloney will alienate them. What audience do you want, guys? If you’re after
the dumb end of the spectrum just continue in the same vein, there are plenty of other stocks
in that particular basket to choose from and nearly all of them run better volume than ALDE.
SolGold (SOLG.to): Up 20% and the poster child of stocks moving up as the world starts to
connect the dots on the opportunity afforded by Ecuador under Noboa. You have to be
selective, as the stories around Atico (ATY.v) at La Plata last week show (see Regional Politics
below) but as long as you’re on the right horse, expect the rally to continue.
Adventus Mining (ADZN.v): I could write the SOLG commentary here, too. Up 14.3% on the
week and that could have been more, particularly as the stock ran strong 1.6m volume on
Friday and held its price while other copper-ish stocks took profits. The ten-day stock shows
how ADZN
Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v): PGZ remains stubbornly off-radar for most market watchers and
due to that, I’m seriously considering another add. Anything under 20c is dirt cheap, so the
16.5c finish on Friday would give a 20% start on that price.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Good to see MAI pick up a bid or two on Friday. That’s all, we await
permitting news and the overdue re-rate.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): There’s a small financing in the works to provide required liquidity as part
of the overall capex package for the Fenix build.
It’s about time the wheels of cash raises began
turning and it makes sense to see a small equity
component happen before the larger pieces
move into place.
This six month chart of RIO.v shows the re-rate
on the excellent (no other word) permitting news
late last year and since then, how RIO.v has run
a reasonably tight trading range of, let’s say, 32c
to 37c and along the way, has had its moments
of reasonable liquidity as well. That’s fair enough
for Q1 and the RIO.v team made it clear to all
who would listen that it would take until Q2 for
the financing package to crystallize, so that chart
action above is both reasonable and healthy.
However, this period is now coming to an end and those who might have played the trading
range are advised not to risk missing the upside breakout. The market for gold stories is
changing quickly and the good ones won’t just get financing, but they’ll get it on better terms
than anyone could have imagined at the start of the year. Gold at U$2,200/oz and rising
concentrates the mind and financiers start to form orderly queues, so companies such as RIO.v
with a all-but fully permitted large project in a premium jurisdiction won’t have to take the
meager offerings of last-resort funding sources. Expect Wheaton on board, expect a good debt
package run by reputable international finance house, but before that expect a small financing
without warrants attached.
12

The Copper Basket
After thirteen weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 7.98% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.to 7.16 186.824 1634.71 8.75 22.2%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 179.221 856.68 4.78 15.7%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 327.75 3.52 2.6%
4 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 321.88 10.90 -7.6%
5 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 207.90 0.90 -34.8%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 151.20 1.385 -20.9%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 144.35 0.85 -4.5%
8 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 222.86 110.32 0.495 32.0%
9 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 175.97 103.82 0.59 -6.3%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 108.87 77.30 0.71 173.1%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 39.00 0.61 5.2%
12 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 27.23 0.44 -27.9%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 21.71 0.125 4.2%
14 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 14.47 0.07 0.0%
15 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 12.75 0.12 -33.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 7.98%
Considering the lack of price movement in
copper last week (more on that below), our
Copper Basker average managed to do well in
adding 2.15% via the gains in seven of our
basket stocks (SLS.to, MARI.to, ASCU.to,
ALDE.v, CCCM.v, KDK.v, AE.v), which on
average were bigger than the losses in another
seven of the stocks (NGEX.v, LA.v, BIG.v,
FDY.to, OCO.v, ECU.v, COR.v), with one
unchanged stock (QCCU.v) providing the
fulcrum. The biggest upmoves were in
American Eagle (AE.v up 14.5%), Solaris (SLS.to up 12.2%) and Kodiak (KDK.v up 10.9%), the
biggest drops were in Element 29 (ECU.v down 11.1%) and Oroco (OCO.v down 8.3%).
It’s the end of the first quarter of 2024 and as usual, we slip in a “my how time flies” comment
before getting to our first snapshot of relative component performance for the year and in the
2024 Copper Basket, there’s no doubt as to which stock has done best:
The 2024 Copper Basket after 13 weeks
13
%0.23
%2.22 %7.51 %2.5 %2.4 %6.2 %0.0 %8.43-
173.1%
%5.4- %3.6- %6.7- %9.02- %9.72- %3.33-
200%
175%
150%
125%
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
v.EA v.OCO ot.XEGN ot.SLS v.KDK v.UCCQ ot.IRAM v.ROC v.EDLA ot.YDF v.AL ot.UCSA v.MCCC v.UCE v.GIB
The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
source: TSX, IKN calcs
American Eagle (AE.v) has owned Q1 in the junior copper space and finished the week with a
flourish to close up 173.1%. As a result, I’ve repeated the same chart as above but without the
big winner AE.v in order to see more easily the moves in the other 14 stocks:
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13
source: IKN calcs

The 2024 Copper Basket after 13 weeks
WITHOUT AMERICAN EAGLE (AE.v)
14
%0.23
%2.22
%7.51
%2.5 %2.4 %6.2
%0.0
%5.4- %3.6- %6.7- %9.02- %9.72- %3.33- %8.43-
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
v.OCO ot.XEGN ot.SLS v.KDK v.UCCQ ot.IRAM v.ROC v.EDLA ot.YDF v.AL ot.UCSA v.MCCC v.UCE v.GIB
source: TSX, IKN calcs
So winner winner chicken dinner for AE, but Oroco has also found bidders, mostly on the back o
the copper move of a couple of weeks ago and takes second spot today. Heavily promoted
exploreco or not that’s a bigger move than I expected from OCO, but that’s just me. Then the
late moves in SLS and KDK have pulled them in the green and mke the list look a lot better
than it did at the start of the month. Meanwhile to the downside, ASCU has continued to
disappoint, C3 Metals is doing exactly what I expected, then the management changes in
Element 29 (ECU.v) have only just happened and have yet to bear any fruit. However, I can’t
help but think Hercules (BIG.v) is better than the last place position it currently holds. We
added it to the list as the hype story of 4q23, its earlu 2024 results saw it sink as reality took
over from hopium, but since then drill results have been reasonable and there’s enough in them
to think that the big system may have better results in the works. All will depend on the drillbit,
of course.
We move to our market comment, which comes before the regular weekly price chart because
for once it makes sense to do it this order. Here’s what Reuters had for us this week regarding
the ongoing kerfuffle about Chinese smelters, TC/RC charges and concentrate supply
bottlenecks (8):
BEIJING, March 28 (Reuters) - China's top copper smelters have proposed a
production cut of 5% to 10% and decided not to issue guidance prices for copper
processing charges for the second quarter, two sources with knowledge of the matter
said on Thursday.
Reuters goes on to report that the association of Shanghai-based smelter firms under the name
Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) made the move “…after the world’s top producer of refined
copper grappled with short supply and a sharp drop in TCs in the spot market”, so no change in
the narrate ve we’ve seen developing over the past few weeks. Of the two moves, the guidance
price removal is the lesser as they didn’t really matter anyway, what with spot charges down to
around U$20/mt compared to the contract agreements of around U$80/mt made at the end of
last year. As for the former, a proposal” may seem as wishy-washy as other attempts by this
loose cabal to restrict production but this time there’s more chance of something happening,
because 1) we’re now entering the maintenance season for smelters when a proportion close
down anyway and 2) there are reportedly several companies working at a loss under current
prices. The larger players are doing okay because they get the contract prices agreed at the
end of last year for most of their production and can ignore the spot market, but the calendar
now helps those loss-makers to shut down and remain so until such time as concentrate supply
improves.
Notably, the copper market price didn’t move much on this news. This chart shows (most of)
March trading in copper and though not exact, the action has basicallty been on a week-by-
week basis, which begs the question as to whether the players do some thinking at the
weekends when the market is closed.

Between IKN773 and IKN774 copper finally broke over the stubborn U$4.00/lb ceiling, but as
we noted at the time in that longer thinkpiece, strong demand for end product copper still isn’t
evident. So when prices retreated between IKN774 and IKN775 it wasn’t a big surprise and as
written last weekend, demand is still “…the missing link and last week we went over a handful
of indicators pointing to flaccid current demand, primarily in its major market China. For sure
that’s also seasonal, but it doesn’t make it any less true…”
In that frame, last week’s flat trading and refusdal to break above or below the U$4.00/lb line
underscores the lack of demand. So the CSPT smelter club can restrict output if they want, it’s
not going to change the dynamics at the moment. On the flipside, we chewed over market
expectations and the way in which traders are factoring in the well-documented future supply
deficit that’s expected to happen as from the second half of this year (and into 2025 and
beyond). That matters and as Q1 turns into Q2, its effects should increase on general trading.
We’ve also (finally) see that sticky U$4.00/lb level cracked and as any student of the market
knows, ceiling levels typically become floor levels. As such, this weekend I’d handicap copper’s
price action roughly along these lines for foreseeable future:
 10% chance that it breaks higher
 60% chance that it remains at/around U$4.00/lb
 30% chance we drop back under the U$4.00/lb level and return to those annoying
U$3.80/lb numbers
I still see copper going higher, but it’s going to take a true and clear uptick in end-user demand
for that to happen and all the supply bottlenecks in the world won’t change that. Last week’s
lack of price reaction on hearing that Chinese smelters are looking to cut production should be
taken at face value, it’s Adam Smith economics 101.
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
15
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco

Now for the updated data on those copper inventories and as Cochilco closed early for Easter
week, this time I went to the three sources. For those nerdy enough to care as well, find those
here (9), here (10) and here (11).
 For the second week running it was quiet week for movements, with the aggregate for
the three official world systems rising by a small 3,134 metric tonnes (mt) to close at
430,072mt.
 Shanghai SHFE stocks rose by 5,138mt to close at 290,228mt, so the peak isn’t quite in
yet. Interesting and would become more notable if 300k is broken.
 The LME’s copper stocks dropped alittle, down by 1,375mt to close Friday at
112,475mt.
 The Comex saw a minor drop of 729mt to close at 27,269mt. added 508mt to close at
27,998mt. No biggie.
One of the dedicated SHFE charts is enough this weekend. This time last weekend I predicted
that we’d reached the stocks peak at the SHFE this year so the addition of 5kmt or so was a
surprise to this desk. It’s also another small indication that the China mainland has all the
copper it needs for the time being and the smelter production crimps aren’t going to cause a
scamble to secure inventory at the country’s industrial base. Not until later this year, anyway.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on some of our basket stocks:
NGEx Resources (NGEX.to): Another week that suggests NGEX is topping out after its stellar
run. Nobody can possibly complain about its performance in the last six months, as it traded
under $6 for nearly all of October, but by the same token it broke $8 at the very start of 2024
and cannot make it over the $9 line.
American Eagle (AE.v): Here’s the ten day chart of AE against spot copper, which shows how
the stock found bidders on Friday and sailed against the copper winds. For sure it’s a hot stock
at the moment and that alone may be enough to account for the move, I’ds also say that a leak
of upcoming drill news is unlikely, as (so far at
least) the company has done a good job of
keeping its results away from the sector
jungledrums and managing to announce without
leaks beforehand (one credit point to CEO
Moreau). For me, this is end quarter windor
dressing and some-or-other insto making sure
they have a nice position in a winner to show the
client base. All is fair in love and war though,
there’s no reason why this price cannot stick or
even move higher in the days ahead.

Element 29 (ECU.v): The first flush of small-ish buying on the news of management change
is over, this downmove makes sense as the company still has work to do to get the community
approval for its drilling program at Flor de Cobre copper and specifically the Atravesado target,
the one they’ve wanted to drill for a couple of years. We may also be seeing an ex-employee or
two cahsing in shares as part of their moving-on process.
This week, Peru’s mining ministry said that it’s looking to green light three exploration projects
per month in the country for the rest of 2024 and this must be one of those, so with luck we’ll
get a decision on whether ECU needs community approval via a prior consultancy process or
not. If not, the drills will be turning soon and this can become a spec trade target on the
eventual results. ECU has never hidden its liking for the Atravesado target at Flor de Cobre, as
it has the potential to show a large porphyry with economic grades from reasonably close to
surface. The model is Cerro Verde or even Zafranal, both are just few clicks North and along
the same batholith. I still like Elida more though, have to say.
Buyable on permit news, at which time it become a spec drill play that’s ready to catch up to
peers if results go well. High risk, high reward but run by a good team in a good location.
The Producer Basket
After 13 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 5.35% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 41.31 35.84 -13.4%
2 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 497.971 29.70 59.65 8.8%
3 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1756 29.22 16.64 -8.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 22.89 119.16 7.5%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 5.50 15.08 -7.7%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 3.34 14.06 11.2%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 2.97 4.81 0.0%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 2.85 14.07 8.5%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.40 7.615 18.4%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.11 7.47 28.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 5.35%
A great week for the precious metals producers to wrap up Q1, with all ten of our component
stocks in this year’s basket returning week-over-week gains to see the overall average move
into positive territory for the first time this year. The best move came from Hecla (HL up
13.7%) which makes sense given its mofre speculative natrure,, most of the others went up in
line with the GDX benchmark and its +6.8% move, while the week’s least best was Franco-
Nevada (FNV up 4.2%) andf that also makes sense, you’re never going to get the leverage
from a massive royalty play that you get from a Tier 2 producer. And as the tracking charts
here show, we’re now 3.38% ahead of GDX and in the biggest lead of 2024 so far. At least for
one weekend, all is well in this corner of The IKN Weekly.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
12% comparative to GDX control
8%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
17
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13
The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
1.0%
ikn 0.5%
gdx control 0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
source: IKN calcs -4.0%
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

As it’s the end of the quarter, it’s also time for our first snapshot of comparative progress in our
ten charges for 2024 and these results are easier on the eye than they were at the end of
February:
The 2024 Producer Basket components after 13 weeks
18
%1.82
%4.81
%2.11
%8.8 %5.8 %5.7
%0.0
%7.7- %0.8- %4.31-
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
FFODW FLMPD FDGUL MEA OGE VNF LH SAAP DLOG MEN
source: NYSE: IKN calcs
The leader of the pack is Wesdome (WDOFF +28.1%), which has had a great Q1 thanks to the
growing assumption that Kiena will be delivered on its new timeline and start making a
meaningful difference to its production and profitability in the second half of this year. Notably,
the top three places in this table are taken by the three smallest stocks in market cap terms,
which shows what leverage does (or is supposed to do), then come three “in line”
performances from the solid AEM, the rapidly improving EGO and the Cobre Panama recovery
play FNV. That late burst even managed to get the mediocre Hecla (HL) back to unchanged on
the year, which just leaves the three clear under-performers in 2024 to date.
PAAS has become a painful stock to own, with bad results from assets and poor direction at C-
suite level, while the real losers so far, Barrick and Newmont, have been all-talk-no-trousers
when it comes to financial results and have patently failed to keep costs under control, that
aside from the fall-out from the poorly conceived and executed NEM merger with Newcrest.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): Call me shameless, but I’m going to continue banging on the
table about the note we ran on Eldorado Gold in IKN773 dated March 10th entitled “A strategic
overview for a 2024 mid-cap trade”, not only for the response in the stock since then…
…as it’s moved from -5.9% YTD to this weekend’s +8.5% YTD, but also because I think there’s
a lot more to come from this move and especially considering the gold price run since then.
Three thoughts on a purely trading level to add to the many already forward on these pages
about EGO this month:
1) EGO has led the GDX in the way front-rank quality stories tend to do
2) Last week EGO still improved, but GDX played a significant catch-up as the lesser
stories caught bids.

3) If there truly are legs to this gold move (and I see plenty of reasons to believe that),
EGO should now kick on as the market seeks its champions
Now for sure I don’t own EGO and that’s for my own sweet portfolio management reasons.
What’s more, the nearest equivalent in my current port would be Equinox Gold (EQX) and that’s
up nearly 31% in the same period, which compares favourably the +14.64% in EGO you see
above. But that’s because I’ve gone for extra leverage to gold via a lesser quality company, a
choice that adds speculation to the mix. EGO, on the other hand, has earned its laurels by clear
and impressive organic improvement in its operations and growth pipeline. For what it brings to
the table, it remains an outstanding opportunity in 2024.
Hecla (HL): The flipside of the comments on EGO above are found here, as even though HL
ran very well last week it’s still a company I’’d avoid
(and very easily) and judging by recent trading alone,
for the same reasons. While EGO ran ahead of the
GDX and has seen the median play catch-up, HL has
lagged the benchmark and as this 0224 YTD chart
shows, has only just caught up.
I added HL to the 2024 list because 1) it had a rotten
4q23 so I thought it could provide a simple rebound
(not a great call) and 2) its silver exposure gives my
2024 Producer Basket leverage to The Devil’s Metal
and assuming silver runs (and what could possibly go
wrong?), HL could still become one of our bigger
percentage winners of the year. Or maybe it doesn’t and it won’t. But what we do know about
HL for a fact is that it’s a mediocre operator and there’s good reason it provides “leverage”, so
as a speculative vehicle it may worl but it’s not my idea of a serious investment.
The TinyCaps List
After 13 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 66.47% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 221.5 29.90 0.135 107.7%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 67.27 55.83 0.83 514.8%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 36.37 0.34 100.0%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 20.27 0.135 -25.0%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 10.19 0.115 15.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 5.72 0.08 6.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 9.27 0.13 0.0%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 26.84 0.55 -26.7%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 219.21 17.54 0.08 -11.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 11.84 0.10 -16.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 66.47%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
19

 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Even though the headcount was a balance of four week-over-week winners (ARIC.v, EDG.v,
KLDC.v, PA.v) and four losers (BAY.v, LMS.v, STS.v,
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
VAU.v) with two unchanged (DMX.v, SURG.v) the 80%
basket average almost doubled and mostly due to 70%
60%
the second big hike in as many weeks in Awalé
50%
Resources (ARIC.v). more on that below, you’ll be
40%
unsurprised to hear. There was one other big
30%
upmove from Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v up 15.0%) and 20%
one big percentage loser in Latin Metals (LMS.v down 10%
15.8%) so those two cancelled each other out, as did 0%
the other small movers in either direction.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): The problem here is that
LMS needs to get a few deals done on its farm-able projects and get its project generator
model back on track. That issue is exacerbated by the low treasury position which stymies its
options and leaves the company the choice of sitting back, doing nothing and waiting for a deal
to come along (i.e. behest to the vagaries of the market) or dilute the share count further in
order to raise capital. As the second option turns it into a “normal” exploreco, strategically it
falls between two stools.
When LMS announces a deal and organic treasury improvement, I may look again. No reason to
create (another) dead money position in my portfolio otherwise.
Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp (KLDC.v): The last time this stock got a mention in the
notes I bemoaned its volatile share price on tghin volume. This time the price move was still
sharp, but to its credit we did get a little volume in the trades as well.
Nowhere near the fun going on in Awalé of course, but you have to start somewhere. On the
lookout for real news, as the drillbit is the only true catalyst here.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): Whoosh.
20
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Now up a cool +514.8% in 2024 YTD, ARIC has moved through the gears in very quick time
from promising to a full-scale world class discovery. Last Sunday we noted that despite the
great run we’d seen in ARIC it was starting to shape up as a true discovery play and therefore
“…still cheap compared to what can happen with a hot discovery play.” Just a few hours after
´publishing those words, this NR dropped (12):
“Awalé Hits 45.7 g/t Gold over 32m at the Odienné Project”
That’s a doozy of a headline, a real humdinger what’s more, and the contents of the NR didn’t
disappoint either. Here’s the assay table of that eye-popping return and you need to read it
vertically down the left column and then right column to get it all (follow the metre depths):
…this drill map shows where it fits in the scheme of things at Odienné…
…and for once, the hyperbole in the NR’s CEO comments is fully deserved and not misplaced.
CEO Andrew Chubb started with this: “This drill hole is absolutely spectacular. I have been
looking at gold projects for the last 20 years and have never seen anything like this.” Quite
right too and there’s more in the NR if you want. This is now a C$55m market capper and while
that’s a massive gains YTD, we’re now in the “Could Be Anything” category of truly exciting
mineral discoveries at an early stage and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the stock price go
higher. Here’s the thinking:
21

 My ballpark, stick-finger-in-air wild guess for a value of what we see above today is
U$200m. That’s based on the thought that “it’s worth more than $100m” at this
stage compared to other projects and stories out there, but by the same token we
can’t get too pricey too soon. Subjective of course, my $200m-or-so is best
guesswork and nothing else, don’t ask for science where it’s not available and feel
free to argue, I won’t push back hard as long as you make your case
 NEM earns its full option percentage to take 65%, then uses its right to buy out the
local owner of its 10%, leaving ARIC as 25% owner
 That puts ARIC at around C$1.00 per share, which tallies reasonably with the price
action we saw last week as ARIC topped and profit-takers cashed in at the Loonie
level. Congrats to all of them, too.
On top of that S.W.A.G. calculation, 70% of the ARIC 25,000km2 land package is not part of
the deal with NRM and unencumbered by the optioning deal, so now we know this is very fertile
exploration land ARIC can let NEM get on with the job of earning in on the flagship target and
go exploring for more jewels in other zones. In other words, once the dust settles we could
easily see ARIC shares drift higher, re-take the $1.00 level and move higher as the story
matures, though we also need to consider the financing angle and the likelihood that aRIC goes
to market and runs a placement. For what it’s worth, I had a quick exchange with ARIC director
Stephen Stewart on Monday and instead of talking QCCU or AE, this stock was the subject of
conversation. He was as excited as anyone else about the potential of Odienné (Truth Machine
plays come with suspense and drama for one and all, not just for the guys like us in the peanut
gallery) and he mentioned that “the bankers” were already keen on sponsoring the company
and running a round of funding. It’s clear ARIC isn’t going to bite at the first opportunity or
offer and they’ll be able to choose between terms and conditions offered, and as for timing I
(obviously) didn’t get an inside word but, on reading between the lines, the lines written this
time last weekend to wrap up the IKN775 note look correct. We said:
“They’ll probably look to take advantage of this momentum and run a treasury-filling
placement at some point but by the same token, they surely don’t feel pressure to do so
immediately so the board will be able to pick its moment to go to market strategically.”
That looks correct this weekend. An ARIC with healthy treasury would be able to ramp up
exploration on the rest of its concession area, all while expanding and adding rigs to the
discovery zone in conjunction with the optioning-in NEM. It behooves the junior to get the
major busy on the deal zone, rather than letting it run at its own pace.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: Atico at Palo Quemado is the new battle front
Which is good news for Adventus. We did a lot on Ecuador last week and there’s no point in
saying the same things twice, but we need to keep abreast of the hot button issue in the
country’s mining scene. After the protests and violence generated at and around the La Plata
project in the last two weeks…
Project: La Plata
Owner: Atico Mining (ATY.v)
Town/Parish: Palo Quemado (pop: approx 1,000)
Canton: Sigchos
Region: Cotopaxi
Approx location: 40km WSW of Quito (a long and winding road down from the capital)
…on March 25th, a judge ordered the suspension (13) of the Atico Mining prior consultancy
meetings currently taking place in the locality around the mine project and also ordered that all
armed forces and police officers not directly involved with matters covered by the current State
22

of Emergency (i.e. the fight against naercotrafficking gangs) be withdrawn from the conflict
zone. The prior consultancy process for the La Plata project started on March 21st, immediately
attracted pushback from locals who claimed they were being prevented from attending by
police tactics that began with a strategy of impeding “outsiders” from attending the consulancy
meetings but soon became arbitrary and heavy-handed, with anyone outside the immediate
locality prohibited from attending even if they lived locally and had real concerns about the
development of the project. The police set up a roadblock some 10km from the town centre
which quiclly became the flashpoint for near-inevitable violence and arguably to the benefit of
the anti-mining camp, made the issue national level news, with the wounded inlcind 35
police/army, an unknown number of protesters hurt with one of those left in a coma in hospital.
The consultancy period was scheduled to run over several sessions until April 2nd, the
government dragged its heels and finally complied on March 28th, but not before CONAIE had
kicked up an enormous fuss about the process and the way in which demonstrators had been
treated. Here’s what CONAIE head Leonidas Iza said on March 26th:
“The President is ignorant; he doesn’t understand the reality of the country. For sure they didn’t
teach him the basic rules of co-existence in Harvard (Noboa’s alumni). Stupid…this ignorant
government stupidly trying to impose with a rulebook, as is this manual, an environmental
consultancy. Stop being a miserable President looking after his own interests. Our stuggle is legal
and we will never accept those who say our territories are connected to narcotrafficking. These
are territories where we will deepen the fight.”
The above quote is from this report (14) in one of Ecuador’s major daily newspapers, El
Universo and is useful for those wanting a little more detail on the history of anti-mining
activism and community rejection of the industry, as it gives a potted history of main moments
in the government vs indigenous community battle from 2008 to date. But it’s not only CONAIE
protesting against the government’s methods at La Plata and this interview (15) last week with
the leader of the Yasunidos collective (formed to protest against the massive Yasuni oil project
located in a nature reserve) includes a nice little sound bite that sums up the anti-Atico position.
According to Ecuador’s law, the project needs to run a “prior, free and informed” consultancy in
order to get its EIA awarded but in the words of Yasunios leader Pedro Bemeo, the meetings
use the forces of order to control and stop attendance, the consultancy should have begun
before any development activity had started and at the meetings, the company and the State
do not explain all the pros and cons to its audience. He gets it down to a pithy “The
environmental consultancy is not prior, free or informed.” Or for another voice here’s Alberto
Acosta, the economist, environmental activist, media talking head and sometime politico who
once upon a time headed up the Constitutional Assembly under Rafael Correa’s first Presidency
that wrote Ecuador’s current Constitution. His views came in this report (16) under the headline
(translated) “What is happening in Palo Quemado is State sponsored terrorism in order to
impose mining”. Long story, short, CONAIE is hardly alone in its views.
The next date of note is this coming Tuesday, when the judge who ordered the temporary halt
hear the case and decides on whether the process can re-start, though anti-mining groups are
already pushing to suspend this judicial hearing for further out and keep the current suspension
in place. Interestingly, the government called the anti-mine protesters “terrorists” and said the
troops were only in place to maintain order, but since their withdrawal there have been no
more incidents or trouble. However, when CONAIE people decided to protest the repression
tactics outside the HQ of Ecuador’s Environment Ministry in the capital Quito on Thursday, they
were again met with tear gas and batons (17). Once again, heavy-handed government tactics
play straight into the hands of the anti-mining side of the debate and we’ve seen all this before,
sadly enough. CONAIE now has its new cause celebre
Last week’s main note “Mining in Ecuador is a buy” tried to cover as much ground as possible
and made the following point, but the ongoing issues around the Atico project makes it worth a
repeat:
CHOOSE YOUR ECUADOR VEHICLE CAREFULLY
Not only do you want to pick companies and projects that work, but you really want the ones of
more solid CSR/ESG grounds because the anti-mining opposition is smart about picking their
battles. Please note:
23

 Adventus/Salazar at El Domo-Curipamba has finished its consultancy and has got its EIA
permit. You heard very little about that project last week from CONAIE and those who
oppose mining.
 SolGold at Cascabel is the project that picked up most headlines at PDAC when President
Noboa agreed to sponsor it via State mechanisms to the tune of up to U$3.1Bn. But as
there’s less social controversy about that project with locals (who have benefited from
the development story, the majority looking on its development positively) CONAIE
doesn’t pick a fight there.
 Atico at La Plata needs to complete its consultancy. It’s been opposed for many years,
even before ATY bought out the old operator Toachi, and locals simply don’t want it to
happen. You heard everything about that one last week, the protests get plenty of local
support and government suppression tactics play into the hands of the anti-miners as
police and army bash normally pacific and law-abiding people over the head and slam
them as the terrorists they most certainly are not.
Now it’s time for the five-day chart:
In general terms, Ecuador-exposed mining stocks did well last week and until Thursday, ATY
was along for the ride. Then suddenly it wasn’t.
Be clear: I’m long ADZN, I’m long SOLG, but I wouldn’t touch ATY, SLS and other polemic
projects with a barge pole and as an aside, it’s worth noting that the people behind ATY are the
same Fortuna Silver people who have a long list of CSR issues at their mines, particularly the
Caylloma and San José units, then the people behind SLS are the same ones that have sold
companies and handed serious permitting issues on to the hapless buyers (South32,
MINESA/Eike Batista, HudBay). Probably just a coincidence. But to wrap up and return to the
nation-level risk, Ecuador today clearly is a trappy place to develop a mine but Fruta del Norte,
Mirador and now El Domo/Curipamba show that it’s not impossible, either. In this respect it isn’t
much different from other jurisdictions such as Peru or Chile but it has its own agenda too,
including that of the time. We should all be over the blithe assumption that “Country X Is Miner
Friendly So Buy Any Story In Country X”, do your DD folks.
Peru: A Rolex! a Rolex! my kingdom for a Rolex!
For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
Mentioned in passing last weekend in IKN775, the “Rolexgate” scandal has gone from bad to
worse for President Dina Boluarte and this weekend her residence and the Presidential Palace
were raided under warrant by public prosecutors looking for evidence of corruption and illicit
gains. As is so common around the world, an issue blows up in the face of a politico because
24

they decide to cover up a peccadillo with a lie and now Boluarte may even be forced into
resignation due to her weakness for shiny things.
 Lady becomes powerful, gets gifted expensive jewelry
 Lady is asked where the jewelry comes from
 Lady lies, says it’s the “fruit of her hard work” and that the pieces have been in her
possession for years. Big mistake.
From that moment, it was easy for reporters to check on her declarations to the tax and anti-
corruption offices in previous years, pull up photos of her never wearing her newly acquired
collection of expensive watches and jewels (a U$50k Cartier piece in the mix now, too) and
watch as she and her dumb entourage painted itself into a ever smaller quarter. All she need ed
to have said was something along the lines of the truth, admit a small failing, take some near-
term flak and Peru wouldn’t have been treated to the sight of police officers using a battering
ram on the private residence of its President this weekend, but the arrogant and high-handed
Boluarte thought she knew better. Her most ardent opposition in Congress has brought a
motion of No Confidence against her due to this scandal, but it’s highly unlikely to prosper
because she has plenty of institutional backing from other parties (mostly due to the cash her
executive is splashing around her political allies). Instead, her fate is to erode the standing of
the current political class even further. Peru is a clownshow and the inept jokers currently in
power are opening the door wide to the extremist populaists in the next election.
In more mining related news, Peru’s new Mining Minister Romulo Mucho had his interpellation
date with the country’s Congress (see IKN775 last weekend) delayed as new accusations of him
hiring a “sentimental friend” to a high paying post at his Ministry came to light. He’ll come up
before Congress soon and says he’s “unafraid” of doing so and talking down his detractors
(quote translated) (18)
“The members of Congress from the parties who are accusing me are anti-investment,
anti-mining, anti-development, anti-progress. I’m pro-investment, everybody know me
(and my position.”
Which may be true, but as a politician he’s as dumb as a sack of rocks to say that sort of thing
to the people with the power to vote him out of a job in a few days’ time. A country deserves
the President it has, it also deserves the ministers the President imposes upon it.
Argentina has a new Secretary of Mining
Do you want to know about the interview Milei did with CNN Español in which he called
President Gustavo Petro a “Terrorist Assassin” due to his old connections with left wing groups
in Colombia, which caused Petro to expel the Argentine Ambassador and his entourage from
the country and get Mexico’s AMLO to comment that he doesn’t understand why Argentine
voted Milei in? (19) No, didn’t think you did. In more interesting macro-Arg news, Milei is
supposedly trying to get all provincial governors to agree to a ten point agenda to align the
country and get them all singing from the same hymn sheet, with a view to a signing ceremony
in May which immediately saw it dubbed the “Pacto de Mayo” (May Pact), understandable if you
know the main events in South America’s history.
Anyway, we did get some mining related news of value from Argentina as it took seven weeks
to replace Flavia Royón, but we finally have a new Secretary (i.e. Minister in all but name) of
Mining (20). His name is Luis Lucero, he’s been hand-picked by Milei’s FinMin and RHM Luis
Caputo, he’s a lawyer with a long track record of working in the resource sector, he has
qualifications from Harvard Law School, Colombia Business School and Cambridge UK among
other gongs, he’s the type of technocrat with zero political experience and a lot of technical
experience in his sector that Milei wants for his new broom policies. The good news for the rest
of us is that Sr. Lucero is unlikely to be taking this job for the image or to promote his own
brand. His first appointment in his new role comes this week, when he meets with the directors
of Argentina’s Chamber of Mining (CAEM). Expect smiles, photo ops and agreement on all
agenda points.
25

Market Watching
Alamos Gold (AGI) buys Argonaut Gold (AR.to)
The big M&A news of the week in our sector came on Wednesday and this announcement (21):
TORONTO, March 27, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Alamos Gold Inc. (“Alamos”)
(TSX:AGI; NYSE:AGI) and Argonaut Gold Inc. (“Argonaut”) (TSX:AR) are pleased to
announce that they have entered into a definitive agreement (the “Agreement”)
whereby Alamos will acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Argonaut
pursuant to a court approved plan of arrangement (the “Transaction”).
We go on to read that the deal is structured specifically to acquire Magino, with the other AR.to
assets put into a spinco. As for the terms, for each share of AR holders get 0.0185 shares of
AGI and one share of the new spinco, with the ticket price of 34c for the AGI portion and 6c for
the spinco portion making a total of 40c. Unsurprisingly…
...AR stock jumped on news of this deal and traded just under the 40c line, but I’ve gone with a
ten-day comparative chart with AGI above to show how the buyer also saw a price pop on this
news, an unusual occurrence for what is essentially an all-paper deal.
There are other details of the deal structure in that NR and they’re worth checking out,
including a $20m break fee payable to AGI if AR backs out (i.e. gets a better offer, which is not
impossible so see below for a thought on that) but what we do have is a result for AR that goes
against the IKn Weekly house position. Argonaut Gold is a stock I’ve tracked since November
last year as a possible trade vehicle and I owned for a few weeks into January, but gave up the
idea when its Q4 produciton numbers disappointed. Since then things have no improved and
the house position has been crystal clear. Recent missives on AR.to include IKN772 dated
March 3rd and the Market Watching note prosaically entitled “Argonaut Gold (AR.to): Avoid” or
the follow-up note next weekend in IKN773 dated March 10th, “Avoid these financial sophists”.
So as the whole idea of trading the stock market is “buy low sell high” and I was clear about
avoiding a stock in the 28c to 30c range that’s now 39c, I missed a trade and you can rightly
drag me over the coals of you so desire. I was wrong, but for the right reasons. Here’s why:
 For one reason, let’s remind readers that just three weeks ago, AR published its 2023 YE
financials and as part of that process, performed impairment tests against its assets and
that apparently rigorous and audited process put the company’s book value at U$967m
and change. Less than a month later, they are willing to accept a deal that values the
company at C$436m (U$327m approx). Like I said in IKN773, they are financial sophists.
 For another, back in IKN757 dated November 19th 2023 when we started our recent
interest and series of notes on AR in the Fundamental Analysis note “Argonaut Gold
(AR.to) (ARNGF) and an impending trade set-up”, we worked out that AR had done its
best to cover up the true capex cost of Magino but once you do the math and reverse
engineer from its quarterlies, Magino’s eventual capex was set to come in at around
C$1.234Bn. In other words, AGI just got a fully permitted mine located right next door to
one of its own operations that would provide massive cost synergies for around a third of
the build cost. That’s an absolutely crazy good deal and it’s no wonder AGI’s share price
rose on the news, McCluskey has scored a massive win for his team.
26

 For yet another, things must have been really, but REALLY bad at AR to have accepted
this deal. They were possibly “encouraged” by Franco-Nevada (which makes out well,
what with AGI extinguishing its NSR in a side deal) and major AR holder GMP accepted
the terms as well, but there’s no way AR would have accepted AGI’s offer there weren’t
other sources of funding available at better terms. A look at the two reasona above
shows how much value AR is leaving on the table by accepting these terms instead of
bringing Magino to fruition and positive free cash flow itself before selling to AGI (or any
other bidder). The vote of “No Confidence” in the AR team from major holders, primarily
GMT Capital, comes in a roaring silence and this, above all, is why I didn’t get long the
stock in the last few weeks even as Magino starts to move toward profitability.
 There’s no doubt AGI and John McCluskey would have offered a deal on its near
neighbour Magino time and again, you only have to dial up a map to see the reasons and
we also know AGI has been active in buying up concessions and explorecos in the region.
So after seeing AR file its unimpaired annuals, I was truly surprised to see it accept such
a lowball offer and if I were a shareholder, even one that managed to snag a small win
by trading in the last few weeks, I’d be annoyed in seeing the company sell for such alow
ticket price. They must have been truly desperate and had received all sorts of “no more
money guys” replies from financiers before talking to McCluskey.
In other words and considering the run-up to last week’s news, I would never been long this
stock. A value black hole, a balance sheet there bore no relation to the reality of the company,
too much risk of further delays and dilution and after seeing that made-up nonsense published
in its YE financials, it was difficult to believe AR would accept AGI’s perma-lowball offer that had
surely been on the table for months. For what it’s worth, the
same number-crunching that kept me away from AR in 2024
also allows solace, as my sell price in January on receipt of its
Q4 production numbers, 39.5c, is still higher than this
weekend’s 39c despite seeing the company under offer. So I
got that right, and by taking cash out of a speculative punt
on AR before too mjuch damage was done, could put it to
use in other places such as the purchases of WRN and the
additions to EQX and SOLG, all doing well. And while on the
subject, be clear that my “mistake” in not owning AR into this
deal is one I’m likely to make in the future with other
companies and deals, too. When the numbers don’t add up
your author avoids the trade, QED.
And that wraps up this story, one in which we again see the difference between asset value and
equity value. It was always highly likely that Magino would get built and become a profitable
mine, the only question was “from whom” and we now know the mis-management at AR has
cost them dearly, with AGI now set to pick up the big prize from actually running and making
money from mining the deposit. But before signing off on this company, I’d like to float the idea
that a competing bid for AR that comes over the top of AGI while not likely, possible. It’s not
one I’d bet on and the way AGI shares rose means that any third party would have to offer a
substantial premium to the terms offered by AGI (plus cover that U$20m break fee), but AGI is
getting so much here for its bargain offer price that there must be room for a thi9rd party to
offer more and get the AR ticket price higher. With AGI Funding AR via a share placement and
the SGM materials not scheduled to come out out for a few weeks, there’s time before any third
party needs to make their move so don’t expect any speculation to start next week, but I’m
sure AGI will be looking over its corporate shoulder between now and the end of May as we’re
now entering a more active period for M&A and while deals remain open, companies are more
vulnerable.
Orecap Investment Corp (OCI.v): A cheap way to play two hot trades
Even though The IKN Weekly risks becoming “All The Ore Group All The Time”, what with the
coverage of QC Copper (QCCU.v) American Eagle (AE.v) and the new interest in the discovery
27

play Awalé Resources (ARIC.v) that’s semi-related to the Ore Group stable, it would be remiss
of me this weekend not to mention another company in the same stable, Orecap (OCI.v). We’ve
covered this small company before and I even had a small spec trade open for a while last year
before doing some portfolio management and pruning, back when this same company was
called “Orefinders” and ran under the ticker ORX.v. These days it’s OCI.v and Orecap, but the
premise hasn’t changed and due to the recent big moves in two of the investments it holds,
there’s new value to be had in this stock.
There are other things in the OCI book, such as approximately C$1.5m in treasury cash at the
moment (the structure burns something like $0.5m/qtr) and a small suite of early stage land
package in some of the traditional mining
zones of Central/Eastern Canada that it’s
looking to option out in something akin to the
prospect generator model (table right ripped
from its latest presentation and if I had to pick
one, the Knight property that backs onto the
Juby project is my idea of the one most likely
to see a deal in the near term).
However, the main attraction of OCI is its share holdings in other companies, mainly fellow Ore
Group stocks. With the recent run in two of them, American Eagle (AE.v) and most recently
Awalé (ARIC.v, see above in TinyCaps), this asset book has added significant value. Here’s a
table we first used to track this stock when it was Orefinders, updated to this weekend with a
few notes below:
OCI.v: Marketable Secs, Investments in Assocs, Cash
ticker shares owned(m) PPS value C$m Cents/share
AE.v 11.68 0.71 8.30 3.3
AE.v warrant 0.10 0.41 0.04 0.0
ARIC.v 8.33 0.83 6.92 2.8
ARIC.v warrant 4.17 0.63 2.63 1.1
QCCU.v 5.06 0.125 0.63 0.3
MIS.cse 24.71 0.04 0.99 0.4
subtotal 19.50 7.9
Cuprum 1.475 0.6
subtotal 20.97 8.5
Est.cash 1.50 0.6
Total 22.47 9.1c
At 247.714 S/O
OCI currently has four main positions, plus a large chunk of the privco Cuprum, but most of the
value comes from its holdings in the hot copper exploreco American Eagle (AE.v) (see Copper
Basket) and newly hot gold exploreco Awalé Resources (ARIC.v) (See TinyCaps Basket).
Combining the shares and implied value of warrants at this weekend’s closing prices, its AE
holdings are worth C$8.34m and its ARIC.v holdings are worth C$9.55m. If we then add the
value of its shares in the other pubcos, the total is C$19.50m and at its current share count of
247.714m S/O, that’s 7.9c/share. That liquid asset value compares to the Friday close of 6.5c,
as seen in this ten-day chart that witnesses the bounce in OCI thanks to big move in ARIC.v,
but still fails to capture all its value. From there, it’s up to you whether you include the implied
value of its holding in privco Cuprum, we also know that cash treasury will slowly deplete and
while my approx $0.5m/qtr estimate may be a little high (they can run on a lower background
burn), eventually they’ll need to top up the kitty in some way or another. But if you add them
all up the 9.1c/share implied value is a full 40% higher than this weekend’s close and leaves
plenty of room for arbitrage.
Considering that OCI may be able to monetize its land holdings (recently returned by Agnico
after the big company bought out Kirkland Lake, its priorities changed and these optioning-in
deals dropped down off its internal radar) and treasury will probably last out 2024 whatever
28

happens, the current arbitrage offered by OCI to the two hot companies (plus of course its
other positions) make this an interesting alternative to
investing directly in AE and/or ARIC. If one, the other or
both continue to wow the market with results we’ll see
further upside here for sure, meanwhile a purchase at this
weekend’s 6.5c (or perhaps a more realistic 7c) would
provide plenty of buffer if those speculations top out. Ity’s
the kind of trade that appeals to both my inner value
investor who recognizes the obvious value, plus my
speculative side, as after all we’re in this wild and volatile
sector aiming for big returns from highly volatile stocks
and this provides exposure to two hot trades (and
potentially others).
Conclusion
IKN776 is done, we end with brief bullet points:
 Buying SilverCrest (SILV) adds silver exposure at what I hope is the right time, but
even if it isn’t the stock is a quality story that still trades at a discount.
 Ecuador stocks had a good week and as the market wakes up to what President Noboa
is doing with his position of popular support, those good numbers should keep rolling in
 I’m tired. And very happy. Thanks for waiting a day for this edition, appreciated.
 And avoid Colombia.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/chinese-manufacturing-pmi-594
(2) https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-set-to-ease-in-february-on-month-as-federal-reserve-rate-cut-
bets-for-june-mount-202403290600
(3)
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=84#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMS
wyLDMsM10sImRhdGEiOltbIk5JUEFfVGFibGVfTGlzdCIsIjg0Il0sWyJDYXRlZ29yaWVzIiwiU3VydmV5Il0sWyJGaXJzdF
9ZZWFyIiwiMjAxOCJdLFsiTGFzdF9ZZWFyIiwiMjAyNCJdLFsiU2NhbGUiLCIwIl0sWyJTZXJpZXMiLCJNIl1dfQ==
(4) https://www.frbsf.org/news-and-media/events/2024/03/jerome-powell-remarks-with-kai-ryssdal-2024/
(5) https://www.nbc39.com/news/national/us-feds-inflation-fight-remains-on-track-despite-recent-uptick-
powell/article_39cfd924-a7fc-54ce-8830-4e1b7175c10a.html
(6) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/2024/index.php?content_id=535
(7) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2024/aldebaran-expands-known-mineralization-at-the-altar-copper-
gold-project/
29

(8) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-smelters-plan-output-cuts-no-q2-copper-guidance-price-sources-say
(9) https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/shanghai-futures-exchange-commodity-futures-stock
(10) https://www.lme.com/en/metals/non-ferrous/lme-copper#Summary
(11) https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Copper_Stocks.xls
(12) https://awaleresources.ca/2024/03/25/awale-hits-45-7-g-t-gold-over-32m-at-the-odienne-project/
(13) https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/juez-de-ecuador-suspende-consultas-ambientales-para-desarrollar-mina-tras-
enfrentamientos/74360148
(14) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/protestas-ecuador-mineria-conaie-movimientos-sociales-gobierno-
daniel-noboa-corte-constitucional-consulta-previa-consulta-ambiental-nota/?
(15) https://notimundo.com.ec/yasunidos-la-consulta-ambiental-del-proyecto-minero-la-plata-no-es-libre-ni-informada/
(16) https://notimundo.com.ec/alberto-acostalo-que-ocurre-en-palo-quemado-es-terrorismo-estatal-para-imponer-la-
mineria/
(17) https://www.elpais.cr/2024/03/27/policia-de-ecuador-reprime-con-gases-lacrimogenos-protesta-contra-mineria/
(18) https://www.expreso.com.pe/politica/ministro-romulo-mucho-no-teme-a-censura-impulsada-por-peru-libre-viene-de-
facciones-hambreadoras-congreso-ministerio-de-energia-y-minas-noticia/1083228/
(19) https://dfsud.com/colombia/presidente-milei-le-responde-a-petro-tras-decision-de-expulsar
(20) https://www.infobae.com/economia/2024/03/25/el-gobierno-designo-al-nuevo-nuevo-secretario-de-mineria/
(21) https://alamosgold.com/news-and-events/default.aspx#news--widget
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
31

GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
32

New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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