IKN #773Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 773, March 10th 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Potential disruption, US CPI on deck, Regarding gold ETFs and
jewelry demand.
Fundamental Analysis: The Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO) Q4 was a miss, Eldorado Gold
(EGO): A strategic overview for a 2024 mid-cap trade.
Stocks to Follow: Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): SolGold (SOLG.to): SilverCrest
Metals (SILV) (SIL.to): Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Newcore Gold
(NCAU.v), Equinox Gold (EQX), Contango ORE (CTGO), Adventus Mining ADZN.
The Copper Basket: Overview, Kodiak Copper (KDK.v), Solaris Resources (SLS.to), Oroco
Resource Corp (OCO.v), American Eagle (AE.v).
The Producer Basket: Newmont (NEM), Barrick (GOLD): Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Awalé (ARIC.v), Palamina (PA.v), South Star (STS.v).
Regional Politics: Peru laughing stock of PDAC, Ecuador: Noboa at PDAC and major news on
Prior Consultancy, Argentina: Rio Negro heads up, Colombia: Miners push back against Petro’s
new anti-mining decree.
Market Watching: Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) rallies, Argonaut Gold (AR.to): Avoid these
financial sophists, Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and its earnings week rally, SSR Mining (SSRM):
A cosmetic con job, Mineros SA gets a new minority shareholder.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 Today’s intro considers the breakout seen in gold last week and what may be driving
this move. As noted last weekend, the Fed rates policy has triggered this move but
after due consideration and trying to keep an open mind, there may be more to it than
simple US macro policy.
 As for then main fundies section, the first of two companies considered this week is Ero
Copper (ERO.to) (ERO), which sold on Friday while others were bought on the back of
a Q4 financial report that disappointed the market. Then we (finally) get to the reasons
why I think Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) is in a great place this year to add serious
market cap.
 Ecuador got plenty of attention at PDAC last week and we see how the positive
sentiment rubbed off on two of our Stocks to Follow, SolGold and Adventus, in the
notes of that section. However, the important news from that country came on
Wednesday and still hasn’t made much noise, a law project from the Noboa
government that is trying to make permitting easier but is bound to cause problems
with indigenous communities. See ‘Regional Politics for more on that, also in that
section we document the cringe offered by Peru last week and a new potential trade
set-up opening in Argentina.
 It’s sometimes an afterthought section, but this week we get plenty of work done in the
potpourri that is ‘Market Watching’. Of the five stocks covered, the most interesting
cases are Goldshore and Argonaut.
1

Potential disruption
I don’t like mixing in the personal stuff but, as this may affect the output of one or other edition
of The IKN Weekly in the days to come, a word is required. This family is now in week 39 of the
wait for its new arrival, this Tuesday March 12th we get the final in utero health check on our
newest member. We’ll also decide on the date (it’s going to be a cesarean birth) and if the
obstetrician says “this weekend” (or next weekend, for that matter) we won’t argue. As such,
the potential exists for one disrupted or shortened edition of The IKN Weekly in the next two
weeks, but only if dates clash badly. With luck, you’ll hardly notice.
US CPI on deck
For your next collision between gold and the world of macro indicators, look no further than this
Tuesday at 08:30am ET and the US BLS Consumer Price Index reading for February. According
to Calculated Risk (1), current consensus is “a 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in
core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up
3.7% YoY”. Here right is our tracking chart of
YoY CPI and if it comes to pass, that 3.1% US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
number would allow headline writers to use the
phrase “sticky inflation” in your MSM channel of
preference. It’s probably not necessary at this
stage of proceedings among such an esteemed audience, but the face value reading of next week’s CPI number is that higher than expected inflation would be bad for the price of gold as it
would give more space for the Fed to hold off
from the start of rate cuts, while a lower than
expected reading would have the world
screaming at Mister Powell and his friends to
start cuttin’ already man, thereby accelerating the trend we’ve witnessed recently. For more on
that, see today’s main intro note below but
Before we get there, if Tuesday’s CPI isn’t enough for you and you need more macro inflation
fun, the US producer price index (PPI) number is due out Thursday morning, with current
consensus at +0.2% (core +0.3%). So now you know.
Regarding gold ETFs and jewelry demand
What has been is what will be,
and what has been done is what will be done,
and there is nothing new under the sun.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
I thoroughly enjoyed last week’s market.
I could have offered up any number of gold price charts and you’ve probably seen a couple of
dozen in the last few days as well, so rather than get serious you get the above example: A
2
4.1 7.1 6.2 2.4 0.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 0.7 5.7 9.7 5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8 7.7 1.7 5.6 4.6 0.6 0.5 9.4 0.4 0.3 2.3 7.3 7.3 2.3 1.3 4.3 1.3 1.3
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0
0.0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32'naj bef
source: US BLS

long-term timeline, a few red lines, the most obvious of comments, not a word about the
future. But there is one word scribbled on that chart which counts for something, “breakout”.
There’s no doubt about last week being a breakout moment, both in the strict market sense
and the perception and reaction of gold owners, market participants and soothsayers who
quickly lined up to offer predictions as to where this move would end. Here are some headlines
as gleaned on Saturday morning after about three minutes’ worth of Google, you don’t get the
links:
“TD Securities says its time to take profits on gold”
“How gold could be experiencing a false breakout”
“Record Highs, but Is a Pullback Coming?”
“Gold’s rally is an impressive breakout of real consequence – Dennis Gartman”
“Gold Is Inches Away From a Huge Breakout Toward $2350”
A headline for every taste and plenty more where they came from, but the point is simple, the
breakout last week isn’t the end of a conversation but the beginning and the noise will only
grow as money starts flowing in. Plus it was nice to learn Gartman is still alive, I had no idea.
However, one report I read last week gets a link and a longer comment, namely this one (2)
published Wednesday afternoon under a suitably clickbait headline, “Gold’s shock rally has
analysts grasping for explanations”. I don’t mind admitting opening it after laughing about that
header, but once open the comments made by one Ross Norman caught my eye:
“It is clear that despite the West's disaffection for gold […] demand in China is more than offsetting
the shortfall, with monumental volumes flowing from West to the East,” wrote Metals Daily CEO
Ross Norman in a LinkedIn post. “As such, this rally seems to have caught Western experts and
forecasters by surprise - a stealth rally if you like - which suggests to me the buying is beyond the
immediate purview of most of us.”
And for two reasons: Norman said the “conventional explanation” is that gold is rallying ahead of an
expected rate cut at the June Fed meeting, which would weaken the dollar and strengthen gold,
“but the dollar is actually up YTD and silver is not validating the move higher in the complex as
evidenced by a decline in the gold/silver ratio as we would have expected.”
Another possible explanation would be the decline in U.S. treasury yields, “down 1.2% in the last
month and with gold up nearly 6% ... but again no evidence that institutions are behind this as ETF
demand remains lacklustre.”
Norman said that there’s no doubt that short covering in the futures market has helped boost the
rally, but the move is too big for that to be the main driver, “so something else is at play.”
Is there, Ross? Is there really “something else at play” in this gold move? As noted last
weekend in the intro to IKN772 “More Songs About Rates and Gold”, this desk put its trust in
the Fed’s implicit message two Fridays ago that those pesky base rates really were about to
come down and this time they aren’t joking. Shamelessly quoting myself again:
“With Friday’s big clue about rates rolling over, the market quickly reacted and showed
that instead of yield money may start chasing gold higher as it bakes in the classic theory
of dropping rates.”
For sure it was a pleasure to see gold doing what it did last week, but as midweek kicked in and
gold rushed through the U$2,100/oz numbers and towards Friday’s record finish, I didn’t feel
the kind of surprise that Mr. Norman seems to have done and no need to look for “something
else”, other than the shift in rates policy going forward. We know gold gets a sweet spot
moment when rates drop and inflation calms, no matter if the eventual landing is soft or hard,
we also know that markets are not frictionless and gold’s move has all the hallmarks of a catch-
up moment. However and by coincidence or serendipity, about ten minutes after reading that
report a mail arrived from subscriber and market professional WV, as part of an ongoing
conversation I’ve had with him about the gold sector and its opportunities. Among other things
he included this World Gold Council (WGC) chart in his missive…
3

…as found on this link (3) and wanted to highlight the ETF draw downs in the 2013 to 2015
period. A fair point, but something else struck me about this chart. Here’s most of what I wrote
back to WV:
What's most interesting for me in that WGC chart is jewellery fabrication in 2020. We
know there was a spike in demand for luxury goods of all types in the pandemic year
(see the Rolex watches price chart for the archetype). So end buyer demand for gold
baubles didn't drop, where the drop occurred was bullion market to fabricators due to the
slowdown in manufacturing around the world (workers at home in sweatpants wearing
masks and binge watching Game Of Thrones). Aside 2020, jewellery fabrication demand
has been fairly constant. So where did that excess gold inventory go? Obviously
according to the chart, into ETF vaults.
Ipso facto, ETFs have been supplying jewellery makers for the last three years.
GLD inventory tonnages spent 2017 and 2018 in the 800mt to 850mt range, dipping to
750mt / 800mt in 2019. As its now 823mt (last Friday) and down nearly 400mt from its
2020 peak, that's a strong indication that the "ETF excess" (let's call it) won't be able to
supply the bauble trade any longer.
IKN773 back. In the world of macro commentary one needs to paint with a broad brush and
there are obviously nuances that I’ll miss, but the idea is straightforward: ETFs have supplied
the jewelers since Covid and now that supply has dried out. Here’s the chart of GLD holdings
and to put some accurate numbers onto my estimates as sent to WV, the late 2022 peak
inventory was 1,277.65mt and that has dropped to this weekend’s 815.13mt, a difference of
462.52.
GLD gold holdings, 2024 YTD (metric tonnes)
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
4
61/4/1 61/13/3 61/42/6 61/02/9 61/41/21 71/41/3 71/8/6 71/1/9 71/82/11 81/62/2 81/22/5 81/61/8 81/9/11 91/7/2 91/6/5 91/13/7 91/42/01 02/22/1 02/71/4 02/41/7 02/7/01 12/4/1 12/13/3 12/32/6 12/71/9 12/31/21 22/01/3 22/6/6 22/13/8 22/52/11 32/32/2 32/71/5 32/41/8 32/7/11 42/5/2
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
Or if you prefer, 2020 saw a net 277.49mt added to GLD physical gold inventory, then 2021
saw a 195.08mt draw, 2022 a 58.02mt draw, 2023 a 38.53mt draw and if we add the hefty

63.98mt draw down we’ve experienced in the first quarter of 2024 to date, the net draw down
is 78.12mt and brings GLD stocks back down to its longer-term floor level.
So add this into the mix, a good old-fashioned case of Adam Smith supply and demand applied
to the monetary metal, the non-commodity asset class. I’ll continue to posit that the underlying
driver of gold’s price increase is the Fed’s clear signal of the change in course for rates, but I’ve
changed my mind about the “something else” and perhaps Mr. Norman was right after all.
There’s quantitative evidence that suggests last week’s run in the price of gold may have been
boosted by the jewelry trade, as its constant demand can no longer be fed by the ETF excess.
All this certainly ties in with the bizarre way in which our sentiment indicator for gold in the
western world, the GLD price/inventory ratio, has sunk to new lows recently and if this theory
holds, we’re about to see ETF inventories flatten out while gold prices rise and enough to stop
the trend. Maybe at that point the big money financial world will notice what’s going on and
start buying enough GLD to add new physical inventory and reverse its course and if so, we’ll
finally get that moment when the ETF starts competing with the world’s Central Banks for
bullion.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
The Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO) Q4 was a miss
The most recent close look at this Watch List component and copper/gold producer in Brazil
was two weekends ago, in IKN771 dated February 25th. In that edition, we chewed over the
announced production numbers and the 2024 guidance figures, came away unimpressed with
its Q4 production numbers but suitably impressed with its guidance for 2024 (and beyond). In
fact Q4 was the second soft-ish quarter of production in a row and as a result, we came away
more impressed by the future of ERO than what it was about to report to market. Here’s a
segment of the conclusion from two weeks ago:
While both 3q23 and 4q23 weren’t particularly impressive out of ERO due to lower than
expected copper production out of Caraíba, the market paid up for ERO stock last week on the
back of its forward guidance, and rightly so. With Tucumã capex now all-but fully baked in, ERO
becomes a free cash flow monster as from the third quarter of this year and that strong copper
production will see lower overall cash costs due to the more efficient new mine. All this is
backed up by the small, but high grade and highly profitable gold ounces coming out of
Xavantina which are forecast to remain at these new high rates. All in all, there’s a lot to like
about ERO going forward and while it’s an expensive producer these days, the expected profit
margins fully justify this equity mark up. With copper production set to double, I will leave ERO
on my Watch List for the moment and if the market offers up a window of weak prices, I’ll open
on it for real as long as I can get in before Tucumã comes online because once that mine is
running, lower share prices would signify something
seriously wrong. Very likeable and if you own you
won’t hear a word of dissent from this desk, we
now await the 4q23 financials to see if a liquidity
event offers a discount.
As things have turned out (chart right and, as we
tend to follow the Canadian listing, we’ve gone with
the Dot Tee Oh ticker) ERO ran hard to last
weekend but sure enough, the Q4 and YE report
when it dropped on Thursday evening (4) didn’t
impress the market and shares duly sold off.
However, the price run that started after IKN771
buffered the loss and negated our cunning plan to
5

look for a cheap buying window once the Q4 numbers were known, because the difference is a
mere six cents over the two weeks. Ho hum.
ERO: Revenues breakdown
19.1419.0018.1418.0917.0614.0115.4919.6422.6318.6824.1321.3929.6333.2
6
91.57 52.27 04.401 26.201 47.49 68.021 24.39 62.59 82.36 99.79 38.67 45.38 65.57 12.38
160
140
120
100
80 60
40
20
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
U$m Est total Caraiba revs
est total Xavatina revs
source: ERO data, IKN calcs and ests
In fact, the Q4 results were softer than even I expected. Not “bad” as such, but there was a
miss on top line revenues and some hidden costs First the easy bit, as the Xavantina gold
numbers came in largely as expected, as production of 16,867oz gold pre-announced. Due to
the lag of sales from Q3, we expected 18k oz in sales and got 18,479oz so no surprise there,
but gross revenues were lower due to the received price for its gold, which at U$1,820/oz was
around U$170/oz lower than the market average for 4q23. We knew it would be slightly lower
than spot because that's the way ERO books its middleman friction (mostly the stream held by
Royal Gold) and had estimated U$1,930/oz, so the result was a full U$110/oz lower than that. A
big breach but those extra 479oz to our guesstimate made back most of the shortfall compared
to our estimate of U$34.7m So no issues with the money from Xavanitina and gold, but there
are issues with the copper revenues out of Caraiba and to frame this, I quote the MD&A
directly:
"Revenues from copper sales in Q4 2023 was $83.2m on sale of 25.2 million lbs
copper at an average realized price of $3.52 per lb."
What? I'm sorry? 25.2m lbs copper sold at $3.52/lb is $88.7m. Somehow and somewhere
$5.5m has gone missing and while that might have been quietly incorporated into costs, it’s odd
the way the company has decided to present its gross revenues. I'm aware that ERO has
middlemen issues and in previous quarters has had to pay heavy premiums to Brazilian
smelters, but by the same token the company has never presented its figures this way. It’s all
rather odd and I’m not going to read anything nefarious into the “missing $5.5m”, what I will
do is note that cash would have added 5.4c to operating earnings and got the number closer to
what I’d expected.
The other modest miss was on costs, which came in almost $10m higher than expected at
$74.555m. The result was a gross profit of U$41.859m for the quarter, a long way from my
original U$56.3m and to repeat, we weren’t shooting for the moon on our model forecast
having already adjusted for the somewhat lackluster Q4 production numbers.
ERO.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
219.74
999.06
152.46
256.05
101.36 18.22 759.36
17.25
848.06
801.04
125.56
804.93
607.96
574.53
555.47
958.14
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
source: company filings, IKN
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues COGS Gross profit
Put all that together and operating earnings per share came in at to 28c, that’s a miss
compared to our expected 40c (see IKN771) and as these are line numbers the casual observer

looks for in a NR or MD&A and takes into account when making snap buy/hold/sell decisions in
top-down portfolios, the likely cause of the price weakness Friday morning.
ERO.to: operating earnings per share, per qtr
7
28.0 18.0
56.0
97.0
35.0
54.0
80.0
73.0
52.0 22.0 42.0 82.0
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
U$
source: company filings
Meanwhile over at the balance sheet there were a couple of surprises for your author compared
to our financial model. We’ll run with the overview charts of assets and liabilities only in order
to save time and space, but the devil is in the details on these data. Notes below.
ERO.to: Total Assets
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
 Current assets at $199.5m were $50.5m lower than our model (with $38m of
that difference hard cash)
 Total Assets at $1511.7m were $101m above our model forecast.
 Liabilities at $702.4m were $47.6m higher than our model.
 Shares out had already adjusted to the current 102.748m, funding treasury and
adding to the total assets. We'd assumed that share sale would be booked as
from 1q24, which was an error on my part.
All those differed from our model and are interrelated, so the rough conclusion we can draw
from the combo is of an ERO that wasn't hanging around in deploying its capital for capex and
sustaining capex projects, firstly Tucumã but also at its operating mines. That was a surprise
but wasn't particularly negative; however one effect is to note how ERO kept its liquidity as low
as possible in order to fund the expansion. That shows in working capital, which as at end 4q23
was at just $25.687m and a lot lower than my model of $110m. I'd like to see that improve
sooner rather than later.
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ERO.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
800
700
cash&eq Ac Rec
Inventory other current 600
fixed
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab
ERO.to: Cash and ST
584.12 833.44 716.15 143.45 805.26
475.48
556.731 450.911 921.031 384.564 188.924
897.953
204.713
746.632
393.081
6.78
837.111
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
$m ERO.to: Working capital
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150 100
50
0
-50
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
$m
source company filings

As for Tucumã the YE literature told us that the company’s main expansion project was 92%
complete as at end February. That sits reasonably
with our expected completion rate (chart right) 100% Tucuma Project: Completion level 95% 100%
85%
and as such, it’s fair to say the project is likely to 90%
80% 70%
be delivered on time. Not a bad thing.
70%
60%
45%
50%
The bottom line: I wasn’t surprised to see ERO
40% 30%
shares fall on Friday morning, the YE numbers 30% 20%
weren’t that great and while its operations are still 20% 8%
10%
churning out strong cash flow, the current working 0%
cap position shows that the company isn’t quite as Sep Dec March June oct 4q23est1q24est 2q24
financially robust as the world seems to imagine. 30th 31st 31st 30th 19th
2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 source: ERO, IKN ests
For sure we’re now at the tail end of the Tucumã
build-out and that will stop draining cash soon, but
on the other hand we’re going to have to wait until 2025 for that to be truly free cash flow
positive and until then, margins at ERO will depend on the movements in the price of copper
(and gold), rather than its organic parameters. It’s still very likeable, don’t get me wrong, but
this weekend I feel slightly more hopeful about getting that potential entry point window on a
sell-off in the company. I’d accept under C$20 at the current copper price very readily and
while I’m not holding my breath, I will earmark a small tranche of my current cash position in
order to take advantage if it shows.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): A strategic overview for a 2024 mid-cap trade
The brief of The IKN Weekly doesn’t normally cover mid-cap or large cap producers, our focus
is the junior world of explorecos, developers and small producers (and mostly in LatAm), but
there’s no law against covering the bigger market cappers and of course, we also keep an eye
on what the bigger companies do via the Producer Basket section on a weekly basis. Bigger cap
companies demand time to cover to the same fundamental depth as they tend to be multiple
mine operations with a bunch of moving parts, there’s only 24 hours in a day and what’s more,
these bigger companies also get eyeballs and coverage from a lot of other places, e.g. your
standard sell side brokerage. So it’s not our usual bailiwick, but there’s no law against watching
their progress and from time to time, one of these
bigger companies can offer (what I consider to be)
a clear or even compelling trade or investment
opportunity that’s worth pointing out.
That’s the reason this segment exists today, but it’s
not the first time Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)
(ELD.to) has appeared on these pages. Our
appreciation for the improvement shown by EGO
dates back to the end of December 2022, when we
added it to the 2023 Producer Basket as a potential
out-performer as it green-lighted its Skouries
growth project, moving it from theory into fully
funded reality. It looked cheap and under-radar
compared to peers and along with expected improvements in its operating mines, offered value.
As things turned out, it took until 4q23 for EGO to catch alight but once it did, it turned into our
#1 Producer Basket performer last year. We kept it on the 2024 list (unlike the #2 performer
Kinross, so far down 11.2% 2024 YTD) because it still looked undervalued despite the new
valuation because the underlying fundies still looked good (and still do) and so far this year
EGO has had a good January, a bad February and March is a work in progress.
Indeed, one of the reasons EGO is likeable today is due to the weakness of its share price last
month, as mapped out on this one-month chart (below):
8

The first downer was no fault of its own, as the tailings dam collapse at the SSR Mining Copler
mine in Turkey threw shade on all companies working there and, rightly or not, raised
perceived risk for EGO and its Kisladag and Efemcukuru mines. As that disaster is now seen
more as an isolated incident than something affecting all Turkish-located mines (and the shrill
calls of “nationalize ‘em all” have faded) we can now consider that move as an overreaction. As
for the other negative day, that came when EGO filed its 4q23 financials and we touched on the
issue in the Producer Basket section of IKN771, dated February 25th. Here’s a reminder of the
position we took:
Eldorado Gold (EGO): EGO offered up its 4q23 filings and failed to deliver on the
scenario I outlined last weekend in IKN770, mainly because of this (16):
Canada-based Eldorado Gold has increased the capital expenditure (capex)
estimate of the Skouries project, in Greece, to $920-million, but between the project
finance facility and balance sheet, the project remains fully funded.
And…
“…more recent and pending contracts incorporate labour rates and labour hours
that are higher than the feasibility study estimate, resulting in the capex rising from
the initial $845-million.”
And…
Further, the time it took to negotiate key contracts has had a “modest” impact on
the production schedule, the company reports. Skouries is now expected to deliver
its first copper/gold concentrate in the third quarter of next year, rather than the
previously guided mid-2025.
Despite returning a set of good results on the back of that rather unjust price drop two
weeks ago due to fallout from SSRM Turkey pit failure, EGO was hit again by a market
that’s looking for excuses to sell down mining shares. Yes the Skouries capex
increased and yes its timeline was set back one quarter, but neither of those are
reason for this stock to have dropped 12% on Friday’s opening bell. It clawed about
half of that initial drop back by the end of Friday’s session and quite right too, but I
still think this company has been hard done-by in the last couple of weeks and
deserves more rally in the days to come.
I did more numbercrunching on EGO during the week and still like it from here, but
other companies took preference this weekend as I’m not supposed to be fixating on
Tier 2 producers focused on Turkey and Greece (and this edition got long anyway).
Enough requests would get me to run the numbers in a longer note next weekend.
The feedback from that small suggestion was positive, I was going to run an overview of EGO
last week, but WRN and the special opportunity it presented too preference. That’s a bit of a
shame, because the move put in by EGO on the back of the gold breakout was excellent and I
missed that window, but it still doesn’t negate the fact that EGO offers a great buying
opportunity compared to peers and I expect it to out-perform as 2024 moves forward. Now to
explain why we do some numbers. First a review of its 4q23 results, then we get to the reason
why EGO is cheap, its forward guidance.
9

The 4q23 financials: We knew and ran the numbers on 4q23 production in IKN770 dated
February 18th, so just a couple of reminders on what each mine did. Here’s the gold production
breakdown per mine…
EGO: gold production breakdown, per qtr
160000
140000
11408 17882
1 1 8 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 4 5 1 8 6 2 8 8 2 1 3 3 2 4 9 3 8 7 2 1 3 2 4 9 7 3 3 4 2 1 3 3 3 7 0 4 5 5 2 1 2 5 6 5 3 2 1 3 8996 1 2 5 2 7 7 7 9 9 3 1 2 6 2 1 4 2 7 3 3 1 2 5 1 4 3 3 6 5 21 1 7 9 5 9 6 2 1 8 1 2 3 2 8 6 6 4 6 4 1 2 8 1 8 1 4 4 8 2 22374
60000 28835 35643 37369 51354 21057 46917 42454 51349 37884 38745 42821 56619
33377
40000
20000 56816 46172 4401651040 331362977927973 377414030737160 3418037219 46291
0
10
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Oz Au Olympias
Efemcukuru
Lamaque
Kisladag
source: company filings
…showing the good results from its main Lamaque and Kisladag gold mines. Then this
consolidated chart below shows the gold equivalent production (AuEq) numbers, including the
non-gold production from its polymetallic (gold, silver, lead, zinc) Olympias mine
EGO: Total AuEq prod, per qtr
022831 247111 660611 954521 934031 037001 513711 090921 829931 922711 972711 308821 661251
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000 80000
60000
40000
20000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Oz Au
To
source: company filings
In other words, a record quarter and when the financials were reported, that shows in its P+L:
EGO: Earnings overview
36.442
11.361
76.491
64.41-
54.312
24.23
7.712
86.3
71.642
40.02
53.922
63.43
68.922
70.93
62.542
68.24
40.403
17.56
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
U$m revenues
gross margin
mine op earnings
op. earnings
source: company filings
Revenues of U$304.037m were a new quarterly record for the company and beat the house
estimate by over $24m, so while production costs at U$136.09m were some $16m higher than
our estimates, EGO was still more impressive
EGO: Cost per oz Au profile, per qtr
than expected and gross margins
(U$167.947m) and mine operating earnings
(U$95.598m) were also records. As this cost
profile chart shows (right) overall AISC rose
very slightly but was still inside the margins
of error at U$1,207/oz AISC.
To get from the mine operating earnings
number to overall corporate operating
146
689
546
4701
646
3311
175
7701
538
6431
987
0721
308
9521
147
6421
667
4811
197
6921
896
7711
617
7021
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 600
400
200
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
U$/oz Au
cash op costs
AISC
source: company filings

earnings, we then subtract exploration, the standby costs for keeping Stratoni ticking over,
corporate G&A, share based payments and
"other" to reach get to U$65.714m. That's
not a record because other quarters (3q20,
4q21) had corporate financial adjustments,
but it's still a company making bank at the
right time and this per share tracker puts
operating earnings per share at 32c for
4q23 and a forward multiple of 9.5X this
weekend (EGO U$12.21 today). That’s not
a raging bargain, neither is it overly
expensive compared to peers. EGO is
showing good earnings generation and if
only for that, it beats a lot of under-
performing a lackluster precious metals miners out there today.
However, the real reason to like EGO is its forward guidance and to get a handle on that, we
first need to check out the balance sheet items to date to frame the upside potential. The
assets and liabilities charts for the last eight quarters show growth on both sides, that’s the
effect of EGO taking out debt to build Skouries, as well as its operating profits (of course).
EGO: Liabilities breakdown, per qtr
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Take one from the other and we arrive at a book value (BV) of U$3.512Bn as at end 2023
(below left, estimated slightly higher today) and as the chart below right shows, EGO has kept
liquidity in good shape.
As at this weekend, book value estimates at around U$17.33/share. As this next chart shows,
BV/share is now around 0.7X and while that has
climbed from the low points of 2021 and 2022,
it’s still well under 1.0X. That looks harsh these
days for a company building out its fully funded
Skouries growth project and delivering good
profits at its operations across the board. We
need to take into account its non-performing
fixed assets such as Perama Hill and Stratoni and
11
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
EGO: Assets breakdown, per qtr U$m
5500
5000 current liab LT debt Other LT liab
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
source: company filings
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
U$m
other fixed
property/plant/equip
other current
inventory
cash&eq
source: company filings
EGO: Book Value
7523 8223 0613 1023 4423 2143 7043 2153 0253
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 WON
U$m EGO: Working cap, per qtr
source: company filings
43.394 90.064 91.114 25.124 51.514
10.495 78.736 91.656
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
1.00 EGO: mine op earnings and op earnings per share
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
U$m
source: company filings/IKN ests
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
mine op earn/share
op earn/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests
EGO: Price/Book ratio 2021 to date
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 WON
source: NYSE, EGO data, IKN calcs

U$m EGO: Mine standby costs, per qtr
14
other
there’s also the small matter of the increased capex 12 Skouries
10 Stratoni
bill for Skouries, as announced with the Q4 results,
8
but the project is still fully funded and the balance
6
sheet clearly shows EGO can support the estimated
4
U$375m to U$425m slated to go into Skouries this
2
year, the final full year of construction with 0
production slated to begin in the third quarter of 1q212q213q214q21 1q222q223q224q22 1q232q233q234q23
2025. source: company filings
Which brings us to the reason to invest in EGO:
EGO: Annual gold production and median four year guidance
Oz Au
Skouries
750000
700000 Olympias
650000 Efemcukuru
600000 Lamaque 150000 200000
550000 Kisladag 55000
3 4 4 5 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 5 2 6 7 3 0 9 7 5 8 6 7 3 6 3 8 3 5 6 8 8 6 1 0 5 8 7 8 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
300000
250000 153201 174097 176069 182500 175000 190000 190000
200000
150000
1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 174364 135800 154850 187500 180000 157750 170000
0
2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e
source: company filings
If we take the mid-point of guidance for the years to come, guidance for the current 2024 year
is slated at 530,000 oz at and AISC of U$1,240/oz (or U$1,290/oz if we play it real and assume
costs come in at the top end of the range). We'll run the numbers on that in a moment, first
we'll complete the long-term guidance with all
the forecast numbers offered by EGO last month: EGO: Annual AISC/oz gold
 2024 guidance median: 530,000 oz Au
 2025 guidance median, 570,000 oz Au
 2026 guidance median, 662,750 oz Au
 2027 guidance median, 705,000 oz Au
Those numbers do not include the non-gold
production from Olympias (Ag, Zn, Pb), or the
copper from Skouries. In the case of the latter,
we'll calculate as a by-product credit at the rate
expected by EGO, which implies Skouries gold
AISC drops to negative U$6 (we assume flat
zero) once fully operational, 2026 and beyond. That’s what you see in the chart above, as for
costs we assume numbers you see in the chart above right, an AISC costs chart that builds in
plenty of conservatism:
 For this year 2024, we assume guidance top end
 For subsequent years 2025-2027, we add around 5% annual for cost inflation at the
EGO steady state operations
 For 2025, we assume no benefit to AISC from the early quarter production out of
Skouries
 However, as from 2026 we assume Skouries produces gold at AISC zero, with its
copper production covering operating costs, as per the Fs and company model.
In a nutshell, we should see modest organic growth this year, then things start to improve
more markedly in 2025. As from 2026 EGO is set to kick into a different gear and by 2027, even
without news from its other pipeline projects Perama Hill (which is particularly interesting) or
Stratoni (worth remembering EGO is spending around $3m/year to keep that mine on care &
maintenance and at some point, capital deployment and higher gold prices could bring it back
12
8601
6721 0221 0921 0531
059 009
U$/oz Au
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e
source: company filings, EGO ests, IKN calcs

quickly). The combo of higher production and substantially lower unit costs is what any miner
aims for, it’s also far easier to promise than to deliver and we retail players know that from hard
experience. Therefore quite a bit of the promise won’t make it directly to the share price and
EGO will surely see a bonus re-rate if Skouries goes into production on the new time and
budget lines, but the prize is obvious and of the size that will really move the dial. There are
plenty of ways to calculate its influence but after due deliberation, I’ve chosen to highlight the
company’s annual net cash margin from operating activities for the last three years and how
the guidance, along with our cost assumptions, affect its cash generating capacity. These two
charts show the same data, with below left in absolute dollars and below right in cash per share
out (forward assumption 205m):
In 2023 just closed, net cash from operating activities came to U$382.9m. That’s set to either
EGO: Annual net cash from operating activities at a
forward U$2,000/oz and U$2,200/oz
remain almost the same if gold averages U$2,000/oz, or rise substantially to U$500m if gold
manages to average U$2,200/oz (i.e. close to where we are today). In other words, operations
will either almost or fully cover the capex scheduled to go into Skouries. Company-wide, if we
assume EGO’s guidance for sustaining and growth capital comes in at the top end and U$729m
for all mines and projects, it would still be able to fund all plans from a combo of treasury and
operating profits. Of course it won’t do that, as it has the debt tranches scheduled to arrive at
milestone moments to pay the Skouries capex, but it shows the level of financial security EGO
offers compared to its obligations and the way it’s set to benefit from the rise in gold prices.
Looking further out, an operating Skouries would make EGO into a $4/share net cash margin
gold producer and worth multiples more than its U$12.21 share price this weekend. You’re
guess is as good as mine of the exact target and it’s a fool’s game to set one on a gold mine’s
incomes estimates for two or three years down the line, there are simply too many variable at
play. But you can be 100% sure that it will be trading higher than it’s own book value by then,
no matter if gold prices drop.
Discussion and conclusion
While EGO’s 2023 came in well, the news that came around those results saw its shares drop
temporarily. The market didn’t like the higher AISC for 2024, it didn’t like the extra capex added
to the Skouries bill, it didn’t like having to wait an extra quarter before Skouries came online
and through no fault of EGO’s it didn’t like the shadow cast on Turkish gold mining operations
by SSR Mining at Copler. But the view of this desk was that EGIO had been oversold on that
news and with the rise in gold prices since then, the rebound to previous levels has gone some
way to agree with our opinion. What the market is missing is the growth baked into this pie
and we don’t even have to wait until Skouries comes online, as 2024 should see EGO become
the latest 500koz + producer on the block. With gold prices more than compensating for a
modest rise in costs forecast for this year, EGO won’t just continue to deliver decent quarterly
profits, it should build them and improve further. Then the real growth kicks in ands once
Skouries is up and running, the production won’t just improve top lines as that cash should run
fairly quicly through a solid balance sheet and become improved equity…that’s share price
upside for you and I, dear reader. With a balance sheet that can handle the dent load it’s taking
on board to build Skouries fairly easily, and plenty of forward liquidity expected even at
U$2,000/oz gold (even better at U$2,200/oz, of course) there’s a lot to like about a share
13
7.663 7.663 2.112 2.112 9.283 9.283 093 005 004 025
037 068 008
059
U$m EGO: Annual net cash from operating activities per
1000 share, U$2k/oz and U$2.2k/oz fwd avg
900
800 Art U$2,000/oz avg forward
700 Art U$2,200/oz avg forward
600
500
400
300 200
100
0
2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e
source: company filings, IKN ests and calcs
10.2 10.2
41.1 41.1
98.1 98.1 09.1 44.2 59.1 45.2
65.3 02.4 09.3 36.4
U$/share
5.00
4.50
4.00 At U$2,000/oz avg
3.50
At U$2,200/oz avg
3.00
2.50 2.00
1.50 1.00
0.50
0.00
2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e
source: company filings, IKN ests and calcs

position in EGO at the moment, a company that has transformed itself over the last five years
and now looks ready outperform peers for the second year running. I cannot think of a better
madcap gold producer proposition out there at the moment.
Stocks to Follow
Just four of our 16 open positions were losers (MAI.v, MARI.to, ERO.to, MENE.v) but as one of
those was the Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v), that result is more annoying than it should have
been in a week that was otherwise solid and profitable. Two of the names with UNCHers
(MIRL.cse, PAU.cse) so that means ten winners so you don’t get the long list, instead we just
consider the biggest percentage wins and there were several notable movers including SolGold
(SOLG.to up 21.7%), Adventus (ADZN.v up 19.1%), Contango ORE (CTGO up 14.3%), Newcore
(NCAU.v up 9.4%), Western (WRN.to up 8.0%) and Equinox (EQX up 7.3%). Plenty of chunky
and chewy numbers in that little list…just a pity about MAI.v.
There are 16 on our list, four under our self-imposed maximum with six of them in the green
and the rest are in the red, but five of those underwater positions look ripe to re-surface in this
newly bullish world for metals. Hope springs eternal.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.295 40.5% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.42 30-May-23 U$4.70 6.3% Leverage trade at U$2k/oz Au
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.37 -55.4% Permit approved, rebounding
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.22 19-Feb-23 C$0.14 -36.4% Avged down Feb'24
Pan Global Res PGZ.v BUY C$0.17 19-Feb-24 C$0.155 -8.8% Feb'24 new Cu trade, cheap
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 26-May-23 C$3.50 14.8% Quality Cu developer
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$1.52 26-Feb-24 C$1.88 23.7% Special situation purchase
Adventus Mining ADZN.v SPEC BUY C$0.285 7-Jan-24 C$0.28 -1.8% EIA permit received, now dev
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.65 10.4% FY24 production, now moving
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.175 -14.6% Showing signs of life
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.70 -2.8% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$22.34 18.0% High quality Cu prod, cheap
SilverCrest Met SILV WATCH U$5.62 21-Jan-24 U$5.57 -0.9% potential silver trade end Q1
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.08 -5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.26 -58.7% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): It didn’t do much more than flatline from
Tuesday to Friday and volumes dropped away in the second half of the week, but you’re not
14

going to get any complaints from this desk about the way this trade has started. I wish they
could all blast out the blocks like this one has:
As M&A targets go, there’s no more obvious one in Canada today. Own some shares, then sell
them to RTZ in a couple of months time for C$3 apiece. What could possibly go wrong?
SolGold (SOLG.to): The market suddenly and finally decided to like SOLG on the back of the
ceremonies and news from PDAC last week. We cover a little more of the Noboa speech and
what it did for Ecuador’s image down in Regional Politics, here you get a five day price chart
and the NR from the company:
BISHOPSGATE, LONDON / ACCESSWIRE / March 6, 2024 / SolGold (LSE:SOLG)(TSX:SOLG) is pleased to
announce the signing of a joint declaration with the Government of Ecuador in preparation for the execution of
the Complementary Investment Protection Agreement ("IPA") for the Cascabel Project ("Project" or "Cascabel")
in Ecuador. The signing took place in Toronto at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada
("PDAC") convention, representing a significant advancement in the Company's commitment to the Project and
its partnership with the Ecuadorian government.
The signing was conducted by the Minister of Production, Foreign Trade, Investments and Fisheries, Ms.
Sonsoles García, and Scott Caldwell, CEO of SolGold, on behalf of SolGold plc and SolGold Finance AG, along
with representatives from Exploraciones Novomining S.A. and SolGold-Ecuador S.A., in advance of the
definitive Complementary IPA to be signed in Ecuador.
In addition to the US$311 million investment addressed by the current IPA, under the Complementary IPA, there
is a commitment to invest a total of US $3.2 billion over the subsequent years in activities related to the
Cascabel mining concession. The Complementary IPA embodies the largest mining investment in Ecuadorian
history, highlighting the scale and importance of the Project, SolGold's commitment, and the impact on the
broader Ecuadorian mining sector.
SolGold's CEO and President of SolGold Ecuador, Scott Caldwell, commented:
"The Complementary Investment Protection Agreement not only reinforces the protections for our key
investment in Ecuador but also symbolizes a deepening of our relationship with the Ecuadorian State. President
Noboa's attendance and insightful speech at the PDAC convention were warmly welcomed by the mining
community and underscores the significant support of his administration for responsible mining in Ecuador."
The odd thing about the Ecuador pledge of financing is its size, as there’s no way the State can
stump up over U$3Bn on its own. This is almost certainly and pre-arranged agreement with
China, in which 1) the Chinese buy some sovereign bonds from Ecuador and then 2) Ecuador
uses the cash to fund Cascabel, or something along those lines. But it makes for solid PR and
we should see SOLG rally further as the ramifications of this strong government backing are
15

realized by the wider market. It’s about time we had some good news from this failing trade,
last week we got some.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to): A delay to annual financials isn’t normally a positive
signal and that’s what we got from SILV last week,
when the company announced (6) that it would file its
annuals “…before market open on March 11th, 2024,
two working days from the previously announced date
of March 6th, 2024.” As for the reason, they said, “The
updated filing date is a consequence of a delay in the
audit process” and that could mean anything, so
overall I’m good about waiting on the sidelines at the
current price deck and having a good read next week.
As for the ConfCall, that now happens “Monday March
11, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. PT / 10:00 a.m. ET” and if you
want the phone numbers check the NR, but if you
want the same as me the webinar link is here (7).
Slightly annoying to get perhaps 15 minutes to read
the financials before the CC starts.
Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v): CEO Tim Moody is not the type of interviewee to impress its
audience with sauve patter or sophisticated and eloquent repartee, instead he’s one of those
mining nerds with a great track record that runs juniors. Case in point the latest segment on
PGZ at Crux Investor last week (8) (they seem to have a long-term IR contract with Crux) in
which the interviewer delivers the softest of softball questions to him (e.g. “Tim, I know
metallurgy can be problematic in the region where Escacena is located…how’s your metallurgy
looking?”) but he still stumbles through the answers. So while slightly painful to sit through, the
update is still worth your time and mine for the main points as noted:
 We should get a maiden tin metallurgy report from the company in two to three weeks’
time.
 They’ve been working on all metallurgy (gold, tin and other) and we should also have
news flow on that soon, but they like what they see to date and expect to produce a
clean conc from its VMS mineralization with little in the way of deleterious materials, all
from a coarser grind than nearby mines in the belt.
 CEO Moody is upbeat on the permitting and pro-mining scene in Spain and waxes lyrical
about the region’s attitude toward mining (though in the opinion of this desk calling
“South Spain” miner-friendly is easier to understand than “Spain”).
 The company expects to drill around 4,000m in the current program, the metres split
between the Western extension of the La Romana target and the relatively new Cañana
Honda zone.
 They may or may not put out a resource this year, but if they find more mineralization
CEO Moody prefers to keep drilling, rather than emit one of those “Snapshot In Time”
maiden resource and then continue.
 PGZ cash is healthy and treasury is good into 2025
All good stuff and he may not be a media natural, but Moody is unassuming and honest about
the pros and cons of his company. That counts for a lot in this sordid sector of ours. Happy to
hold on to my small speculative position and will wait for interest/volume to return to trading
before making any other decisions.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Another highly
frustrating week. Out of fashion and it took just
150k papers on Friday to knock MAI back under the
30c line, after threatening to run into the mid-30c
earlier in the week. So much value in this stock it
hurts my brain.
16

Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): The best of the volume
was early week and interest tailed off once PDAC was
over, but zero complaints about the ongoing move in
NCAU and a good follow-thru week after its own mini-
break out as seen the week before. Sometimes no overt
catalyst is required and market recognition of very
cheap gold ounces in a serious and prospective project
is enough, even though nothing has really changed in
the last few weeks aside the gold price. Holding and for
the record, will not think about selling even when/if my
trade moves into positive territory.
Equinox Gold (EQX): Finally. It wasn’t by much, as
this ten day chart comparing EQX to the mina
producers’ ETF (GDX), but we finally got a little of the
out-performance from this “leveraged to gold”
alternative we were looking for when opening the trade,
all those months ago. Be clear that I’m still rather
disappointed with the way this trade has panned out
and at some point in the near future I’ll probably cash it
in and move on, but with gold doing what it’s doing and
the high likelihood of bargain hunters moving in to find
cheap ounces and speculative trade on the metal, I’d be
silly to sell right away. So let’s see how high it can float
on this gold move before making any proactive
decision, there’s no rush while the gold market heats up.
Contango ORE (CTGO): I still can’t believe this traded under U$15.
The CTGO run continued unabated last week and after trying on Wednesday and Thursday,
managed to hold over the psychologically important (as they say) twenty dollar line.
Adventus Mining ADZN: That right is quite the
2024 YTD chart. ADZN also benefited from the good
vibes caused by President Daniel Noboa at PDAC, its
own investment agreement with the country signed
during the gig (8) and the government plans to
provide guarantees for FDI moving into the country
during his tenure. The rally didn’t have quite the legs
or the volume than that of SOLG, but that’s okay and
the El Domo/Curipamba project can generate its own
news flow and headlines as 2024 rolls out, not least
because it’s now on course to be the next green-
lighted build out in the country.
17

The Copper Basket
After ten weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 2.21% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.v 7.16 186.824 1554.38 8.32 16.2%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 179.221 740.18 4.13 0.0%
3 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 336.64 11.40 -3.4%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 325.89 3.50 2.0%
5 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 187.11 0.81 -41.3%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 138.65 1.27 -27.4%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 118.87 0.70 -21.3%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 175.97 89.74 0.51 -19.0%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 222.86 80.23 0.36 -4.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 108.87 66.41 0.61 134.6%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 31.33 0.49 -15.5%
12 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 27.85 0.45 -26.2%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 20.84 0.12 0.0%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 13.81 0.13 -27.8%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 13.43 0.065 -7.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -2.21%
Copper wasn’t the centre of attention last week, The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
4%
that was gold, but while more modestly positive
3%
the bellwether industrial metal also had a 2%
1%
decent week. The copper explorecos did okay 0%
too, but it was a disparate performance and as -1%
-2%
well as the nine week-over-week winners -3%
(NGEX.to, SLS.to, LA.v, ASCU.to, ALDE.v, -4%
-5%
FDY.to, KDK.v, AE.v, COR.v) there were five -6%
losers in the mix (MARI.to, BIG.v, OCO.v, -7%
CCCM.v, ECU.v), with one UNCH (QCCU.v)
making up the numbers. The biggest upmoves
came from American Eagle (AE.v up 15.1%)
and Camino (COR.v up 8.3%), biggest downers C3 Metals (CCCM.v down 11.8%) and Oroco
(OCO.v down 7.7%).
So a mix with a mildly positive slant,
which was driven by the improvement in
the price of copper as seen in this chart
of our preferred tracker, the near-dated
Comex futures contract (HGK24) that
closed just under the U$3.90/lb line.
That was okay, but it could have been a
lot better if the gains we saw on
Thursday had held, they came on the
back of good macro data out of China.
The fallout from the US Jobs report
dinked copper on the head and back
under the U$3.90/lb line.
As for that Chinese news, our carefully curated copper commentary this week gives us the
overview via this Reuters report (8) entitled “Copper, zinc hit 5-week highs on China trade data,
smelter cut” but who cares about zinc? Here’s what matters:
Copper prices touched their highest in five weeks on better-than-expected trade data in
top metals consumer China while zinc also surged due to a cut in output at a major
South Korean smelter.
18
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01
source: IKN calcs

And…
Data showed that China’s export and import growth in the first two months of 2024
beat forecasts.
“The Chinese trade data was quite good, with exports being strong. Copper imports
were up as well, so it looks like demand is doing all right actually,” said Dan Smith,
head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.
China’s unwrought copper imports rose 2.6% year-on-year in January and February,
customs data showed.
And…
The Yangshan copper premium SMM-CUYP-CN rose to $60 a ton on Wednesday, the
highest since Jan. 19, indicating improving demand for copper imports into China.
Some details on that China news, via these charts
(right) taken from literature out of Chile’s Cochilco last
week which may be in Spanish, but it’s not a difficult
translation. The above chart shows the guidance (red
line) and reality (blue line) of Chinese good and services
exports, a bi-monthly reading that came in last week at
+7.1% compared to the forecast 1.9%. That’s a good
print by any measure. The below chart shows Chinese
goods and services imports, uses the same bi-monthly
read and last week’s number came out at +3.5%,
compared to the forecast 1.5%. So to put that into a
couple of snappy points:
 Chinese imports are stronger than expected
 Chinese exports are stronger than expected
 Copper imports were up 2.6% YoY
 Copper premiums on the Chinese mainland have
finally moved up from the fire sale prices seen in the
first two months (the ones Glencore and Trafigura
wanted to bake into their entire financial year,
dontchaknow)
 Copper rallied nicely on the news from its biggest
country client (by far) and it was only a purely
technical financial reaction from the US Jobs reading
that stopped copper from closing higher.
 And as you’ll see below, copper inventory data is
beginning to turn bullish.
I like this combo. We now get to our look at weekly
copper inventory moves, data as usual from Cochilco:
 Copper inventories once again did their seasonal thing and as a world aggregate, rose
by 17,166 metric tonnes (mt) to close the week at a grand total of 379,203mt.
 Centre of the additions was once again was the Shanghai SHFE system, so no surprise
there but equally, it’s good to see copper doing predictable things at the right time of
year. This week’s rise was 24,758mt, which puts the SHFE total at 239,245mt as at last
Friday. We ‘re now entering the period in which the stock spike may or may not peak
out and that’s going to be its own indicator for what might happen to copper for the
rest of the year. Or at least in Q2.
 We continue to get a moderately price bullish signal from the LME, which again saw its
stocks drop by a significant 8,575mt to close at 112,800mt. This puts LME back in
yellow flag territory and a lack of available copper may start entering the narrative
when SHFE stocks roll over.
 The little sister of the three systems, the North American based Comex, once again saw
a small add of 983mt to close Friday at 27,158mt. From time to time the Comex may
have some influence in the overall narrative and copper price discovery, but under
19

normal circumstances it’s the follower and not the leader. The present time is normal
circumstances so, no biggie.
The first of the dedicated SHFE charts is the easy way to compare the current re-stocking spike
with other years and we’re about to see when the spike tops out and rolls over.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
20
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 0202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD ht52
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
The second is the best to note the timing in the stock climb compared to other years and last
week’s rise means the 2023 peak is behind us now, while if the peak comes in the next week
(perhaps two), it would match the timing of 2022. The weird years are 2020 (Covid) and 2021
(Covid hangover) but so far at least, the model 2024 is following is most closely related to
2019.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2019 to 2024
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): The most interesting bit of the Crux interview with KDK during
PDAC last week is that it was done by CEO Tornquist along with Chair Chris Taylor (10), the
company seemingly keen on getting some of that Taylor Dixie-Big-Win-Kinross-Etc love rubbing
off in its direction. Which is fair enough, because Taylor made a lot of people money and those
people may be keen on sponsoring his other projects. His participation in KDK has been low key
to this point, but he is the Chair and that matters so seeing him pop up as co-interviewee is
likely to raise this junior’s profile.
Less interesting was the main subject of the Q&A,
which is also the subject of the NR out of KDK last
week (11). KDK is one of a flurry of companies
that has bought into the Vrify AI service for
geological interpretation. Vancouver is a small
community and seeing the Discovery Group (John
Robins) as one of the early adopters of the de
Jong Vrify AI is zero surprise. The proof will be in
the pudding, not the baking and the reality of KDK
is best summed up in the price chart above. All

the chummy, jovial and collegiate interviews in the world cannot hide the obvious failures at
KDK in the last two years.
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): Further to last week’s he-said-she-said over CSR at Warintza
that previewed last week’s signing ceremony at PDAC, we indeed got the photo op at the
conference and also the dissenting view from the major opposition in the zone, the PSHA. This
press release from the indigenous community association (12) also confirms something we
pointed out last weekend:
Jaime Palomino, President of the Shuar-Arutam People (PSHA), said:
“The Shuar Arutam People vehemently reject the Warintza mining project and the
agreement signed between Solaris and the Interprovincial Federation of Shuar Centers
(FISCH). The signing of the agreement disregards the opposition of the Shuar Arutam
People and attempts to legitimize the project without their consent. Lowell Exporation,
subsidiary of Solaris Resources, is lying. The president of FISCH has no authority or
right to sign agreements within the territory of the Shuar Arutam people. The
“agreement” is therefore illegal because the Shuar Arutam People were not consulted.
We demand respect for our collective rights and denounce any attempts to undermine
our autonomy and decision-making processes regarding our ancestral territory.”
To repeat: The local community representing two small villages next to the Warintza project
cannot give the required social agreement to Solaris. Neither can FISCH. The only body that
can give Solaris its social license at Warintza is the PSHA and that body is firmly against its
presence, therein lies the rub.
Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v): It’s traded lower intraday, but Friday was a new multi-year
low close for a stock now firmly out of favour due to a combo of factors:
 Over-promise, under deliver and all that Mariusz hype, aided and abetted by OCO
management
 The mediocre PEA delivered last year
 The “Whole Mexico Thing”, particularly the thought of permitting an open pit mine
next to a river
 And we could continue
In simple terms, there are a lot of better options when it comes to copper development projects
and OCO is now on the also-ran pile. At some point that may change, but it’s going to need
some specific good news regarding the company and not just higher copper prices.
American Eagle (AE.v): The darling of PDAC, AE got a lot of love from the core shack
mavens and the momentum it has created in 2024 keeps on running. For that a project needs
to deliver good assay results ands AE has done so, but
it’s also credit to CEO Moreau for making the right
marketing moves and getting the story out there. I
wouldn’t call AE expensive now, but equally there’s a
lot of presumed exploration success now baked into
the price as so far in 2024, the stock has added
C$38.1m to its market cap. To the credit of
management, that’s nearly all in the share price and
benefiting retail.
The mining world needs successes, more power to AE.
The Producer Basket
After 10 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 1.75% to level stakes:
21

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 39.08 33.91 -18.1%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1761.54 27.76 15.76 -12.9%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 496.54 27.07 54.51 -0.6%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 22.10 115.02 3.8%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 5.04 13.83 -15.3%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 3.09 13.00 2.8%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 2.51 4.06 -15.6%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 2.47 12.21 -5.9%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.36 7.44 15.7%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 1.12 7.49 28.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -1.75%
A strong week for gold, that shows in this section more than anywhere else as all ten of our
Precious Metals Producer Basket stocks retuned good wins for the week. The average move
was +8.5%, with the low end taken by Barrick (GOLD up 5.5%) and the high end taken by the
only to break into double figure upside, Eldorado Gold (EGO up 12.7% and darn it, should have
run today’s main Fundies note last weekend) though a shout-out is in order for Agnico (AEM up
9.9%) as it begins to put in a serious challenge against Barrick for second place on the market
cap league table. FWIW our basket matched the move in the benchmark GDX ETF to within one
hundredth of a percent, so we’re still 2.67% ahead of the game and looking to keep that lead
or even extend it as Q1 comes to a close.
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage diff. between
4% comparative to GDX control GDX benchmark & basket (negative= IKN ahead)
1.5%
2% 1.0%
0% 0.5%
-2% 0.0%
-4% ikn - - 1 0 . . 0 5 % %
-6% gdx control -1.5%
-8% -2.0%
-2.5%
-10%
-3.0%
-12% -3.5%
-14% -4.0%
source: IKN calcs -16%
Jan1stJan7th14th 21st 28th feb4th11th 18th 25thMar3rd10th
Newmont (NEM) and Barrick (GOLD): The two biggest gold mining pubcos in the world:
We know the run put in by gold bullion in the last two weeks has largely out-stripped the GDX
(you know that, because you’ve heard it from five dozen sources this week), but note how
badly #1 and #2 have done compared to their peers. We’re now at the point where Agnico is
just U$700m behind Barrick and how the mighty fall. This desk submits that if this rally in gold
is for real and valuations are going to re-set higher, we’re going to have to see the world’s
biggest gold producers out-perform the pack going forward.
22
ts1naJ ht7naJ ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4bef ht11 ht81 ht52 dr3raM ht01
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to): Up 9.3% on the week and another great response that
put company in the main rank of movers in a bullish market, Wesdome has had a great Q1,
which shows you how much I know. Here’s an excerpt from my notes on the company in
IKN763 at the start of the year, when deciding to keep the stock in the Producer Basket for
2024:
“I suspect the “market perform at best” performance will continue in 1q24, but as from
mid-year and as long as the company delivers on its new timeline to get Kiena fully
operational by the start of Q3, WDO can show us the delayed re-rate.”
Wrong and stupid Mark, but that’s hardly the first time (or news to you). The comparative chart
to GDX of the main Canadian listing WDO (right)
shows that on Friday, the stock did 2.13m shares (and
around 175k in the NY WDOFF OTC ticker, for the
record), which is around 6x average and an eye-
catching volume lift, especially when considering it
was a market perform that day.
Best guess? As the stock is up 28.5% 2024 YTD and
one of the very few real winners in the sector this
year, someone wanted to lock in profits post-PDAC.
Therefore, seeing it hold its market price is particularly
bullish.
We’re about to find out which Friday counterparty got
it right as (we quote) (13) “…the Company will release its fourth quarter and full year 2023
financial results after market close on Tuesday, March 12, 2024.” We then get the conference
call next morning, Wednesday, March 13, 2024 at 10:00 am ET and the phone links are in the
NR above, or do it like me and use the webcast link here (14).
The TinyCaps List
After 10 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 13.67% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 221.5 31.01 0.14 115.4%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 67.27 12.44 0.185 37.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 36.91 0.345 102.9%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 18.02 0.12 -33.3%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 6.65 0.075 -25.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 5.00 0.07 -6.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 7.84 0.11 -15.4%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 31.23 0.64 -14.7%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 219.21 17.54 0.08 -11.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 12.43 0.105 -12.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 13.67%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
23

 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Last week:
These are the size and type of exploreco stories that can move and pop hard in and
around PDAC time, so seeing 20% moves may be pleasant but they’re not so
surprising while volumes and daily trading in absolute dollars remain low. So not the
longest edition of The TinyCaps basket today but we may get to report on peppy news
and market moves post-PDAC, next weekend.”
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
That was prescient, as we have plenty of that pep to 16%
report this weekend. Even though the headcount was 14%
12%
even with four winners (BAY.v, ARIC.v, DMX.v, PA.v),
10%
two unchanged stocks (EDG.v, SURG.v) and four
8%
losers (KLDC.v, LMS.v, STS.v, VAU.v) the size of the 6%
wins easily beat out the worst of the losers, headed 4%
by Awalé (ARIC.v up 42.3%) and followed by 2%
Palamina (PA.v up 22.2%) and Aston Bay (BAY.v up 0%
16.7%). To the downside, Latin Metals (LMS.v down
17.7%) was the biggest loser.
Awalé Resources (ARIC.v): Our write-up on ARIC last weekend in IKN772 was not the
reason its stock price rose the way it did last week,
but it did witness the NR of the week before and the
company and its story managed to gain traction at
PDAC. Such is the way of the juniors world, a tiny
company goes from ignored to “Certain to be bought
out by the Lundins!!!” (three exclamation marks de
rigueur) in the space of five working days. As for the
price action, it saw two decent flurries of buying but
the general price was 16.5c and the 18.5c finish
looks a little tapey-painty to me. But no matter,
that’s a successful week for ARIC and as we’ve been
waiting for this exploreco story to wake up in 2024,
seeing it move in PDAC week is all good.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): the other strong mover last week, but PA continues to trade very thin
volumes in a wide percentage range and continues to run well under the radar. We’ve featured
this tinycapper in the last two (three?) editions and like its chances of delivering a assay win
from its upcoming drill program at Usicayos, but there’s no need to pay up if you’re thinking
about buying some high risk papers.
South Star (STS.v): Quieter than I’d expected it to be this year to date, STS closed the
second tranche of its placement (originally $5m, then upsized to $7m, then closes
“oversubscribed” at $6.7m…semantics) and also told us (15) that it was “…aiming to produce at
Santa Cruz around 5,000 tonnes of graphite concentrates in 2024 and 13,000 tonnes in 2025”
in the maiden production years at its new mine in Brazil, as well as making progress on its #2
mine Bamastar in The USA. As graphite isn’t traded as an open fungible commodity or on
futures contracts (yet) and there are varying grades of battery quality graphite, we’ll see how
much money that 5kmt brings in later, rather than sooner. All the same, STS is a valid
alternative for EV commodity traders away from the usual suspect lithium names. Personally
speaking I like the company and its sweet spot potential as it re-rates into production,
assuming of course things go smoothly. Or at least like it enough to follow it on this list without
buying any as yet.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
24
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source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Regional politics
Peru laughing stock of PDAC
We had timely reminder of the level of mediocrity running Peru last week. The Boluarte
government came to PDAC with an large entourage, led by Prime Minister/Cabinet Chief Alberto
Otárola (Boluarte’s main shield and the man behind the violent repression strategy that left over
50 Peruvians dead in the protests of late 2022/early 2023) and Mining Minister Romulo Mucho,
at his post for less than two weeks before getting on the plane. In Minister Mucho’s words, the
plan was to “send the message to investors that Peru is politically stable” (16).
It didn’t work out like that. When Prime Minister Otárola stepped up to the podium to give his
Peru Day speech on Monday morning g he was already the centre of a government-wrecking
scandal in his home country, as a Sunday evening investigative reporting show in Peru ran a
recording of a phone call between him and his sentimental partner (I think that’s how you say it
diplomatically) in which he asked her to send in her resumé to his office, after which she got
around U$20k’s worth of fees from the government. The phone call recording caught Otárola
breaking at least three laws, he was summoned back to Peru with immediate effect and once
he’d met with the President, he “was resigned” with immediate effect. To add extra spice to the
scandal, Romulo Mucho was asked by reporters on Monday morning for comment before his
immediate superior’s speech and said “If it’s true, it’s very serious”. That must have made for a
great atmosphere behind the scenes, though notably the Prime Minister was the only change in
the cabinet, all ministers include Romulo Mucho managed to keep their jobs (a rarity when a
PM resigns in Peru) and he is still Mining Minister in new cabinet led by the new PM who was
sworn in on Wednesday, one Gustavo Adrianzén.
Señor Adrianzén is a lawyer, part of the Lima Establishment and has been one of the Dina
Boluarte inner circle for many years (e.g. he has a decades-long friendship with Boluarte’s
somewhat controversial brother, but that’s another story for another day). He also has his own
strident views on the mining sector, as noted a few years ago when he accused the community
around the infamous Tia Maria project (SCCO) of being left-wing terrorists then later, while
attending an International Court of Human Rights hearing over the deaths of Tia Maria
community locals at the hands of police, got up and screamed “They are the terrorists!” at the
top of his voice, disrupting the hearing. Also note that up to this week he was one of the more
vociferous pro-government (and very anti Lefty) political influencers on social media, but for
some reason has suddenly deleted all his accounts.
The upshot from this week: The very same day Peru tried claiming that the country was back
on track and stable to the international mining community, the person charged with delivering
the message and the #2 in the current government was caught red-handed in obvious corrupt
activity and forcing his resignation as Prime Minister, a change the country had been
clamouring for since the violence in 2022. The government’s reaction has been to ignore the
event, do as little as possible to change course and pretend nothing happened. They’re sure to
repeat the message in the very near future that things are stable and their brand of mining
policy will work, too.
Way back in IKN721 dated March 12th 2023 in “Peru: The “mining corridor” is open”, we ended
the comment that day with this short paragraph:
The political upheaval has not gone away and this very weekend, the latest opinion
poll has 74% of Peruvians want President Dina Boluarte to resign if Congress doesn’t
approve early elections. As 1) public opinion won’t change much 2) Congress is doing
everything it can to avoid voting for early elections and 3) Dina Boluarte, with tacit
approval from Peru’s Lima ruling class, is getting comfortable with her new job, Peru is
kicking its major social problems down the road, rather than trying to solve them. At
some point it’s likely to flare up again and even if it doesn’t, we should watch closely
for the rise of the dangerous populism of Antauro Humala. However and for the
moment, there’s a little welcome calm in the country.
As a matter of fact, points 1) 2) and 3) have all turned out to be on the money. That last
sentence is also in-play now, as to his political credit Antauro Humala has played his cards very
25

slowly and carefully, remaining on the sidelines of the day-to-day debate and letting his rivals
attack each other. The decadence in the political scene in the last 12 months therefore plays
into his hands and there’s now a strong rumour doing the rounds that he’s about to register his
formal political party, with eyes on the April 2026 Presidential election. Back during the late
2022 and early 2023 turmoil this publication mentioned his name and political position on
several occasions and despite being quiet, Antauro is as politically dangerous as he’s always
been. So if you disagree with your author, believe Peru is over the worst and will now become a
welcoming jurisdiction for mining FDI, please wait a year before passing judgment.
Ecuador: Noboa at PDAC and major news on Prior Consultancy
The speech given by President Daniel Noboa at PDAC on Monday went down well and got
plenty of column inches in Spanish, but I also an English language report and as I’m lazy, you
get the quote from here (17):
Before executives of mining companies and investors, Noboa, who has just completed
100 days in power, assured that his Government considers the mining sector as an
economic priority.
“Mining is an engine of national development and that is why we are here, thanking
you for your support and interest in Ecuador,” stated the president.
Arbitration goes to popular consultation
In this sense, the Minister of Production highlighted that the Ecuadorian Government is
trying to reform the Constitution to allow the approval of an investment protection
mechanism, an ” international arbitration between private investors and the
Government.”
With PDAC in the rear view mirror and President Noboa adding the Referendum question on
respecting international tribunals into his speech (see IKN772 last weekend for more, as we
previewed that wrinkle nicely), we got the real news about Ecuador’s legislation reform plans
for the mining industry away from the conference and back in Quito. On Wednesday the
government quietly published its plans for “The Manual of the Operation of Prior Consultancy”
(translation) in a ministerial document that wouldn’t be picked up on immediately. When we get
to the rules proposed for prior consultancy for mining projects, it’s easy to see why they didn’t
want to attract the attention of the general public, in particular the opponents to mining with
the core formed by the indigenous communities and their main representative association
umbrella group, CONAIE. It starts innocently enough with terms that seem reasonable, based
on three main criteria:
 Mandatory: Prior Consultancy to be obligatory for all mining companies and for all
exploration, operation and commercialization activities.
 Flexibility: The Ministry must act with “sufficient flexibility” on any given project, working
to get agreements with all parties in order to promote dialogue.
 Good Faith: The consultancy should be via cordial dialogue in a transparent process that
will garner mutual trust between the parties involved and the State.
However, the fun starts when we consider what happens if the consultancy period ends without
agreement (i.e. if the project is rejected by local communities, no matter what the company
and/or State do or say). For this we quote (translated) this report from Ecuador national daily,
Primicias (18):
What if there is no consent? The manual states that the results of the prior, free and informed
consultation are be binding. So what does the manual say if an agreement is not reached? The
manual indicates that if the State decides to execute a project, even when there is no consent from
the indigenous peoples and nationalities, it must:
 Clearly state the reasons why it has not been possible to adapt the project or modify it
according to the concerns or demands of the communities.
 Justify why the project should continue despite community opposition.
 Take measures that minimize the possible impact of the project.
 In these cases, the Ministry states that communities must receive compensation.
In other words, the government of Ecuador wants to introduce a prior consultancy that’s
obligatory but non-binding. That goes against the directive of OIT169 and is directly against the
26

position taken by its political and community opposition and without putting too fine a point on
it, this document and its consultancy proposal is fightin’ talk. This will go down like a lead
balloon with CONAIE and likely marks the end of the uneasy truce between the Noboa
government and indigenous locals regarding the mining sector.
Argentina: Rio Negro heads up
Here’s a news story on something I’ve been quietly watching out for, because if it moves from
the drawing board into reality it makes a few also-ran explorecos into serious trade options.
Dated March 8th, this report (19) out of Argentine regional newspaper “Diario Río Negro is
entitled “Río Negro Wants To Be a Mining Province: “This is the moment to make this definitive
move.” That title line quotes the leader of the government bloc in Rio Negro provincial
parliament one Facundo López, who led a three-cornered meeting between the local
government, the Energy Secretary and the Environment Secretary. The other sound bite quoted
by the report on the meeting was (translated):
“Río Negro has all it takes to become a mining province, and we believe that this is the moment tro
move forward. If we give the sector the legal framework it requires, with special protection for the
environment and resources such as water, we are faced with the possibility of giving the Southern
Region the chance to incorporate an activity that generates a large quantity of job, development
and finances into its production matrix.”
This has been a long time coming, as Río Negro has always been one of the more promising
provinces in Argentina geologically, but its politics have never been pro-mining and have often
taken cues from its Southern neighbour, the very anti-mining Chubút. But with the change in
direction at national level under President Milei and his provincial allies trying to leverage his
political advantage, we may finally see juniors and projects in this province get a break, the
laws and official backing and most importantly, permits to go about exploring, developing and
ultimately building mines.
Be clear, nothing has changed as yet in Río Negro and we’re at proposal-stage only. Also, just
because this is proposed by the leader of the national government people in this province
doesn’t mean its opposition or those against mining development suddenly roll over and die,
allowing the immediate permitting and construction of a brave new mining world in the region.
Far from it, but there’s clearly a new wind blowing and in the great scheme, Río Negro has
always been on the list of regions that might shift from an anti-mining (or at best ambivalent)
attitude typical to Chubut, Mendoza, Neuquen or Tierra del Fuego and toward the pro-mining
stance that has done well for Andean cordillera provinces such as Santa Cruz, San Juan, Salta
etc. If you like, Río Negro is the most likely candidate to cross the floor and turn into
Argentina’s next pro-mining province and if that happens, there are some interesting cases to
study. Project there are often held by beaten down explorecos, here are some examples for you
consideration:
 Amarillo Grande (uranium), owned by Blue Sky Uranium (BSK.v)
 Calcatreu (gold), once owned by Pan American, now owned by Patagonia Gold
(PGDC.v)
 San Roque (polymetallic), owned by International Iconic Gold (ICON.v)
Those fit the frame of being in the province and beaten to a pulp in recent years, due to the
lack of permitting, the anti-mining atmosphere in Río Negro, as well as the negative look
created by Argentina in general and the wider sector downturn. If Río Negro comes out of deep
freeze there may be value in any and all of them, but for the record the one project that would
potentially float my personal boat is Taquentren, now under the auspices of Fitzroy Minerals
FTZ.v. This gold/silver project has always stood out on a pure rocks basis but politics has
blocked its development, so a few permits and the company plans for potentially drilling in 2025
may not be so far-fetched. If the drills turn, expect impressive assays. For more on FTZ, here’s
a link to its website to start you off (20) and you may note along the way that its CEO is one of
the people doing some of the interviews on Crux Investor, including the one mentioned above
with Pan Global (PGZ.v) last week.
27

Colombia: Miners push back against Petro’s new anti-mining decree
In IKN768 dated February 4th 2024 we ran the note “Colombia: The anti-mining Petro
government makes its move” regarding the government’s plans to block mining projects in a
backdoor way. Here’s an excerpt from that script:
Don’t say we didn’t try to warn you. Last week the Gustavo Petro government of Colombia, via its
Ministry of Mines and Energy and its Ministry of the Environment & Sustainable Development finally
revealed its hand (11) and position regarding mine developments in the country…the two ministries
expedited an executive decree that effectively gives the government to power to declare any area
of the country a "provisional nature reserve", a move which would then suspend the permitting
track of any mining development. To translate the cover letter of Decree 044/2024, it "Establishes
criteria to declare and outline reserves of natural resources temporarily". In other words and in
practical terms, if any rural or "natural" zone or area is under dispute between anti-mining locals
and a mining company trying to move forward its project, the government now has the power to
move in, declare the zone a "temporary nature reserve" and halt permitting or development until
studies have been carried out to determine whether said area deserves to become an official
nature reserve.
Unsurprisingly, the mining sector collective did not like the idea of that executive decree and
has now pushed back against it (21), bringing a formal blocking order against its enactment via
the nation’s procurator’s office. The executive decree now goes to the “Council of State”
(Consejo de Estado), i.e. the branch of the Supreme Court related to business and legal affairs,
for adjudication. If the Supreme Court holds in the Petro government’s favour, it would be bad
news for the mining sector in Colombia as it would in essence hand this anti-mining
administration the direct powers to halt any controversial project for an indefinite period.
Market Watching
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) rallies
Thus conscience doth make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action.
Hamlet, Act 3, Scene 1
Over-thinking potential trades and set-ups is a bad habit and this is not the first time I’ve
missed out on a winning trade. This desk has tracked Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) over an
extended period and it was a line item on our Watch List for many months, providing the
potential of “cheap leverage to gold” if the metal had started to run. However, back in IKN739
after yet another C-suite gaffe we dropped the stock from coverage when priced at 15c and
vowing not to return until its awful CEO, Brett Richards, had been removed and the C-suite
given a good shake-up.
It took quite a while but that finally happened a couple of weeks ago, as recorded in IKN771
dated February 25th and the Market Watching note, “Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): The CEO
moves on at last”. However, the news didn’t get me interested enough to buy some GSHR or
even add it back to our Watch List, instead I showed my cold feet about moving back into the
stock and finished the IKN771 note that day in this way:
“…now the CEO has to all intents and purposes “been retired” from the company and
they can truly turn over a new leaf, cut costs and put together a wiser plan to add value
to shares, its 6m oz of now cheap in-situ gold in its good jurisdiction may be worth a
revisit. On the other hand, as stock stories go this one has been broken into a thousand
little pieces and they’ll have to do surgery on its share base and refinance the structure
before there’s any real improvement, so with sentiment for large, bulk mining projects in
the veritable dumpster it’s unlikely to make an immediate move on Richards’ deserved
departure. So, not going back on the Watch List for the moment pending what we expect
will be some sort of share structure and/or corporate level improvement.
That was a mistake:
28

I could console myself in the fact that other open trades have ridden the same rising tide at
GSHR and the portfolio has benefited as a result (e.g. NCAU.v), I could also use that as
mitigation while writing notes on GSHR this weekend because there wouldn’t be any outright
lies and it would sound logical enough. But inside I know the truth and the news CEO Richards
was moving on should have been enough to at least re-opened GSHR on the Watch List and
perhaps even pulled the trigger on a speculative trade. It’s okay to have doubts on how
effective the C-suite re-organization announced three weeks ago might be or how quickly we
may see its effects on the share price, but my doubts on a smaller matter stopped me from
opening a trade when the major influence on this company, the price of gold, did what we
wanted it to do. That’s the essence of over-thinking a set-up and as a result, I’ve left money on
the table and done no service to you readers.
GSHR is in the same place as stocks such as Newcore (NCAU.v) or other explorecos that fit the
combo of 1) large 2) low grade 3) multi-million ounce resource and 4) beaten down by a
relentless market recently. These two and many others, we all know the drill by now and feel
free to add your own fave to the list. We haven’t seen it yet and I couldn’t help but note the
kvetching from the peanut gallery about the stocks that haven’t moved even as gold broke out
and made new highs, but at some point even these stocks will advance and re-value. They
don’t have to be perfect and indeed, in the case of GSHR its managerial limitations have been
clearly noted but that won’t stop them from moving forward. Those of you with a high risk
tolerance may want to hold your nose, don’t look too closely at the fundies of each company
and buy a basket of beaten down dogs, as if gold continues to run they’ll eventually give great
returns.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): Avoid these financial sophists
Unlike the lost opportunity at Goldshore (see above), I’m still
comfortable about the “Avoid” call of last weekend in IKN772
despite the run up in the share price on the back of its 4q23
and YE financials, filed pre-open Wednesday March 6th.
Here’s the ten-day chart of AR.to (right), which shows the
positive reaction on Wednesday, followed by the return of
selling on Thursday and a flat ride in on Friday:
A lot of the good vibes from AR came from its headline
metrics, with overall operating earnings coming in at
U$15.526m:
AR.to: Op. Earnings
29
5.22
1.63
3.42
0.9
1.61 8.41
7.0
9.92-
8.0
3.01
5.21 5.51
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

However, the underlying operations were nowhere near as profitable as that, with gross profit a
thin U$1.071m:
AR.to: Operations overview
30
8.501 987.66 14.111 349.47 752.57 932.65 778.59 223.08 769.86 414.25 111.38 806.75 8.401 102.77
98.511
345.69
revenues
$m prod costs
160 dd&a/inventory adjust
140 gross profit
120
100
80
60 40
20
0
-20
-40 Source: company filings
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
The reason for this is negative impairment added to Florida Canyon, which saw asset value
added back to the tune of U$24.031m due to the work done at the mine and its ensuing longer
mine life, as well as a higher implied gold price.
This is absolute BS, financial violin work of the most blatant and laughable levels. Recall, this is
a stock that has traded not just under by WAY under book value since mid-2022 when its issues
at Magino became apparent. If we consider that a sub !X BV is a classic indicator of a company
with bloated prices for its fixed assets and consider that this weekend, AR runs a price/book of
just 0.36X, it’s almost an insult to read that AR management is using an accounting method to
pimp its annual results by pretending its assets are worth even more than just one week ago.
It’s a company that has ploughed in hundred of millions of extra dollars into Magino for exactly
the same mine plan, yet tries to convince us Magino has the same NAV as back in 2022. It’s a
company that has, quite literally, put its Mexican assets into care & maintenance because they
are no longer profitable to operate, yet refuses to take impairment or write down value. But
when it comes to Florida Canyon, it’s ah so ready to add fixed asset value and massage the
quarter.
AR.to: Price/Book Ratio
1.60
(baseline in US Dollars)
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4 tse42q1
P/BV
source: TSX, AR filings, IKN calcs
Anyone falling for this bunkum needs remedial lessons in pubco financials. We remind readers
that AR has promised a debt refinancing during 1q24 and that can only be for one reason: It
cannot afford to service its current regime. That moment, rather than last week’s joke quarterly
results, will determine the equity value of these shares going forward but in the meantime,
you’ve just been handed a lesson in how the new people in charge at AR will use financial
trickery to fool you into believing this company is profitable and viable at current levels and
balance sheet position. It’s not. Avoid these white collar liars and, unlike the idea floated at the
end of the note on GSHR (above), be very careful about buying into “beaten down gold stocks”
when they’re also weighed down by a out-sized liabilities ledger, particularly those with cash
debt against them.
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and its earnings week rally
Back in IKN770 dated February 18th we revisited this recent semi-failure trade vehicle in the
note “Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) at a buyable level”, noting the way it had been beaten down

to a buyable level by the bad vibes around its 2024 guidance. Please see that edition for it all,
here’s the main part of the conclusion that day:
“FSM hasn’t set a date for its 4q23 and YE financials yet, but they normally arrive in mid-March.
The market seems to have decided to ignore the rear-view mirror and hates FSM for its 2024
guidance which is fair enough, but our model still predicts a record revenue quarter thanks to
Séguéla and the company will be able to talk up the effects of its new mine on 2024, as well as the
improvement already seen at Yaramoko and the work done at Lindero to improve grade and strip
going forward. With so much bad vibes and news baked into the stock and the current price
(U$2.80 to U$2.90 has held as a strong floor level on several occasions already), this is one that
may surprise to the upside the week of its YE report. Personally speaking I’m going to sit it out, as
it’s way too cute to sell a junior only to buy it back a month later at a slightly lower price (and it
has to be said, my personal antipathy for its management team colours my opinion…I’m human
after all, not just a number-cruncher). But that’s just me and the set-up for nimble money looks
right here, FSM is priced at dumpster levels it does not deserve.”
It so happens that FSM didn’t wait until mid-March but delivered its 2023 YE financials on
Wednesday March 6th (22), the numbers went down well enough and they came with the
fortunate timing of the gold rally, to boot. That was enough to allow the market to turn a blind
eye to the hole blown in the balance sheet from FSM’s decision to move up the closure of San
José Mexico. We quote the cover NR:
“An impairment charge of $90.6 million related to the anticipated closure of the San
Jose Mine in late 2024, as the updated mine plan is scheduled to exhaust Mineral
Reserves by the end of the year compared to mid-2025 as previously planned.”
A quick aside on this news before moving on: The premature depletion of San José is as much
about the local community’s refusal to allow extra concession areas to FSM and let the company
continue to mine on-trend. A reflection of the bad community relations it has maintained with
locals in the SVP valley all this time, they’re now trying to force the regional politicians’ hand.
Anyway, back to our overview and the chart shows how FSM got lucky with timing and finally
put in a rally from those recent lows (which seemed like a strong floor level and turned out to
be just that).
Even so, the rally in FSM beat the median in the sector and that’s not a bad result during an
earnings week.
31

It certainly did better than SSR Mining (SSRM) last week. More on that below, but I’ll close by
opining that what we saw from FSM last week was catch-up, not a new uptrend in the stock. If
gold continues to rise so will this stock, but only as one of the many boats on the rising tide. I
still say that a cosmetic change of corporate title and dropping “silver” from the name would do
this company a world of good, but that’s just me.
SSR Mining (SSRM): A cosmetic con job
Also featured in IKN770 dated February 18th but for wholly negative reasons in the note “SSRM
Mining (SSRM): Copler environmental permit withdrawn”, we’ve been following the recent
misadventures of SSRM in Turkey after the tailings failure that has apparently claimed the lives
of nine workers and last week, the company delivered its latest insult to the world (23):
DENVER - SSR Mining Inc. (NASDAQ/TSX: SSRM, ASX: SSR) ("SSR Mining" or the “Company")
announces the reorganization of key roles and responsibilities within its executive leadership team.
Michael J. Sparks, currently Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Administrative Officer, will
take on the role of Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Sparks succeeds Alison
White who is leaving the Company to pursue other opportunities.
F. Edward Farid, currently Executive Vice President, Chief Corporate Development Officer, will take
on the role of Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer.
Finally, Joanne Thomopoulos, currently Vice President, Human Resources, will become Executive
Vice President, Human Resources. The changes to the executive leadership team are effective
immediately.
Rod Antal, Executive Chairman of SSR Mining, said, "The changes to the roles and responsibilities
of our executive leadership team will provide an opportunity to realign accountabilities to better
support the business, particularly as the Company continues to navigate and assess the impacts of
the Çöpler Incident. We thank Alison for her contributions to SSR Mining and wish her success in
the future.”
In other words, SSRM has moved around its lieutenants without firing any of the generals in
charge of strategy or direction at the company. The way
in which SSRM has failed to rebound after the bad news
is bound to be grating on its large holder roster and it
will be interesting to gauge the reaction to this Friday
evening NR when trading opens next week. SSRM
remains a clear avoid, not least for moral vacuum trying
of a C-suite trying to hold on to fat monthly salaries and
refusing to assume any responsibility for the multiple
death in its own workforce caused by bad practice. All it
would take is one deep pocketed activist and the
company could become a buy, however. The way Vale
bounced back from Brumadinho is your case study.
Mineros SA (MSA.to) gets a new minority shareholder
I’m slightly late to this because the proposed deal dropped two Fridays ago and I missed it at
the time, but when it got official and was filed to SEDAR on the 4th last week I caught up with
the news that Mineros SA (MSA.to) has a new large shareholder (24):
Bogotá, Colombia and Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - March 1, 2024) - Sun Valley
Investments AG ("Sun Valley") announces that it has entered into a share purchase
agreement (the "Agreement") with Mercantil Colpatria S.A ("Mercantil") Vince Business
Corp., Vince Business Colombia S.A.S. and Banderato Colombia S.A.S. (collectively,
the "Colpatria Group") to purchase 67,440,916 common shares ("Acquired Securities")
of Mineros S.A. ("Mineros" or the "Company"), by way of a private agreement (the
"Transaction") at a price of C$0.836 per share for aggregate consideration of
C$56,380,605.94. The Acquired Securities represent 22.5% of the issued and
outstanding common shares of Mineros.
A brand new shareholder to Mineros, the 22.5% position taken by Sun Valley are all being
bought from Colombia’s Pacheco family held in several firms in its umbrella family business,
Colpatria, and leaves Colpatria with around 8.9% of MSA shares (so they’re not selling out
completely). As for Sun Valley Investments AG (SVI), that’s the private investment fund run by
Vikram Sodhi, ex-Morgan Stanley who broke out on his own a few years ago to run this fund
32

focused on the mining companies and the precious metals sector. It’s also particularly
interested in Colombia and owns The Colombian Mint, a financing entity out of Medellín (capital
of the mining-friendly Antiquia region of Colombia).
The news made MSA shares do this (right) and
created plenty of news inches on the rich western
gold magnate looking to buy into the Colombian
mining scene, but this desk is more cautious about
using the arrival of SVI as a bullish signal. For one,
there’s always a price for such a deal that allows a
win-win result, but seeing the Pacheco family exit
most of its position in a company it knows better
than any other isn’t the strongest of bull signals. Los
Pacheco have been shareholders in Mineros SA since
the 1980s and were one of the main driving forces
behind the company going public in 2019, so at some
point it seems the strategy involved getting their print. On the other side of the coin, SVI has its
market position and the brand is known, but its track record has been patchy at best and some
of the decisions seem to cast doubt on its DD process.
To its credit, SVI did well when backing Battle North as its largest minority shareholder, holding
13% of shares out. On the other hand, it sold around 5% of that holding just two months
before BNAU was bought out by Australia’s Evolution Mining at around half the eventual takeout
price.
 SVI was the biggest holder of Belo Sun for many years and as a result, has taken an
absolute and near-total bath on that position, having failed to understand the red flag
political risk at the company (please note The IKN Weekly warned against touching that
unholy dog for many years and its C-suite of sophists for years on end).
 SVI was the activist shareholder that took control of Brad Cooke’s second string company
Canagold in 2022, promising a shake-up and to add value to its flagship Polaris project.
Since then the company’s share price has declined.
 Meanwhile in Colombia, SVI is a major partner in Soma Gold and while that company’s
production improvement was good in 2023 (and caused us to put it on the IKN Weekly
Watch List for a while), the serious legal problems facing its erstwhile CEO Javier Cordova
again smacks of a fund that doesn’t turn over all the stones before investing multi-
millions of OPM into junior miners.
Bottom line: Mineros SA (MSA.to) is not my idea of an investment in this sector, even without
its significant exposure to Nicaragua and its dubious ESG credentials as a drag miner in the
rivers of Colombia. This deal makes sense on some levels as SVI has always been interested in
Colombia as a base for its investments and would have got closer to MSA after buying into
Soma Gold (its UG mines were once owned by MSA). However, seeing the Pacheco family leave
is my idea of the better DD indicator, particularly when SVI’s patchy track record in LatAm is
considered.
Conclusion
IKN773 is done, we end as usual with bullet points:
 Even though it was a top performer in 2023, Eldorado Gold (EGO) still stands out from
the pack and its weak February has made it buyable at current levels. Fully budgeted
organic growth upside and profitable gold mining.
 Gold’s run and new record prices last week didn’t get the leverage out of its mining
companies, but there plenty of time for that.
 Very happy with the way the Western Gold (WRN.to) (WRN) trade has started, now
ready for it to break back over the C$2.00 line.
33

 Avoid Colombia. Not joking.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-10-2024.html
(2) https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-06/golds-shock-rally-has-analysts-grasping-explanations
(3) https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2023
(4) https://erocopper.com/news/ero-copper-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023-operating-and-financial-results/
(5) https://www.accesswire.com/839790/solgold-plc-announces-cascabel-cipa
(6) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/2024/index.php?content_id=534
(7) https://silvercrestmetals.com/investors/presentations/
(8) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRHdsZq7OfA
(9) https://www.adventusmining.com/news/122629
(10) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQGmI2W0vqQ
(11) https://kodiakcoppercorp.com/kodiak-uses-vrifys-artificial-intelligence-software-to-optimise-exploration-and-drill-
targeting/
(12) https://www.einpresswire.com/article/693338502/ecuador-s-president-noboa-omits-major-challenges-and-
indigenous-opposition-facing-nation-s-mining-sector
(13) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2024/Wesdome-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-
and-Full-Year-2023-Production-Results-Provides-Multi-Year-Guidance-and-Management-Update/default.aspx
(14) https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/exv3yx2x/
(15) https://www.southstarbatterymetals.com/ydihapto/2024/03/STS_03_2024_-PPClose_Final.pdf#new_tab
(16) https://energiminas.com/2024/02/29/minem-sobre-pdac-2024-queremos-dar-el-mensaje-a-los-inversionistas-de-
que-el-peru-esta-recuperando-la-confianza/
(17) https://www.ecuadortimes.net/president-noboa-presents-his-reforms-in-canada-to-attract-mining-investment/
(18) https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/economia/manual-consulta-previa-energia-gobierno-noboa/
(19) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/2024/03/08/rio-negro-quiere-ser-una-provincia-minera-es-el-momento-para-dar-ese-
paso-definitivo/
(20) https://fitzroyminerals.com/corporate/management/
(21) https://www.lafm.com.co/colombia/peticion-de-la-procuraduria-para-suspender-delimitacion-de-reservas-naturales-
para
(22) https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/fortuna-reports-results-for-the-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023/
(23) http://ir.ssrmining.com/files/doc_news/2024/Mar/08/ssr-mining-announces-changes-to-executive-leadership-
team.pdf
(24) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/200028/Sun-Valley-Investments-AG-Announces-Acquisition-of-Shares-of-
Mineros-S.A.
34

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
35

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
36

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
37

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
38