IKN #768Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 768, February 4th 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Gold and Chumbawamba.
Fundamental Analysis: Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v): Handle the risk to get the reward.
Stocks to Follow: SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to), Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v), Marimaca
Copper (MARI.to), Equinox Gold (EQX).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Hercules Silver (BIG.v), American Eagle (AE.v), NGEx
Resources (NGEX.v).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, District Metals (DMX.v), Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v),
Kirkland Lake Discovery Corp (KLDC.v).
Regional Politics: Colombia: The anti-mining Petro government makes its move, Mexico’s
election begins to get media airtime, Argentina: Javier Milei has a good week, Chile in
recession, El Salvador: Bukele wins his election this weekend.
Market Watching: Next week.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 Today’s main event is the promised numbercrunch on Adventus Mining (ADZN.v) and
even after being hard on the model, it shows very well. It’s why I’m long, after all.
That’s the fundies section.
 To make it anthropomorphic, gold last week took plenty of punches but managed to
hold on to its gains and even managed to end with a week-over-week improvement.
We’re not predicting a massive To Da Moon move, we are saying that U$2,000/oz and
above is becoming the new normal and that can only be good for a whole bunch of
gold producer stocks. It’s about time this sector gave a few posirtive earnings surprises
to the wider market and attract some attention from the generalists. Today’s intro
 Much happier with the way the TinyCaps Basket is shaping up this year, with a good
representative bunch and some interesting stories to follow.
 In Regional Politics, Colombia has just waved a very large red flag so pay heed.
Argentina’s Milei had a good week for his plans to make Argentina into a normal
country and we consider two Central American elections as Bukele wraps up his win
this weekend and Sheinbaum prepares to become Mexico’s first woman Head of State.
Gold and Chumbawamba
I get knocked down, but I get up again
You are never gonna keep me down
I get knocked down, but I get up again
You are never gonna keep me down
I get knocked down, but I get up again
You are never gonna keep me down
I get knocked down, but I get up again
You are never gonna keep me down
Tubthumping, Chumbawamba, 1997
Gold should not have done as well as it did last week.
1

1) This time last week, the debate was raging over whether the fed would cut in March. Come
the FOMC communiqué and Jerome Powell’s press conference the debate was well and truly
over, here’s a quote from this report on the event (8): “Based on the meeting today, I would
tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the
time of the March meeting to identify March is the time to do that,” he said. “But that’s to be
seen.” ″[March is] probably not the most likely case or what we would call the base case,” he
added. In a world looking for interest rate cuts to let commodities run, that’s bearish.
2) This time last week, the US BLS Employment Report forecast consensus was for 162,000
new non-farm payroll jobs and a headline unemployment rate of 3.8%. Those numbers came in
at +353k and 3.8%, with an upward revision of 117,000 jobs to the December numbers, as
well. Those are not the numbers of a USA that’s about to dump into recession.
Combine the Fed and the Jobs report and it’s no surprise that the US Dollar got jiggy last week.
When that happens, the “anti-dollar” gold is supposed to dump.
3) The ongoing weakness in the Chinese stock market last week is indicative of an
overstretched economy. Not a chart on my normal radar but
mapping the tracking ETF of China’s main market index, the
CSI300, against the S&P500 shows how the nerves got frayed
in its broad market last week. For sure it’s a volatile stock
exchange and we’ve seen big sell-offs there before during
China’s long-term economic expansion, but the near-term
effects are what we consider today. Once again, that’s not a
chart conducive to gold bulls.
4) All this on a backdrop on ongoing conflict, with bellicose
actions in MENA now firmly baked into the pie. Two years of
war in Ukraine is page 5 news these days and the “escalation
risk” of dropping bombs in Yemen is shrugged off by a market that, literally, rolls with the
punches.
5) Last but certainly not least, the centre of the world’s biggest economy continues to show its
disdain toward gold. We’ve tracked this trend for a long time so there’s no surprises here, but
last week also saw the GLD Inventory/price ratio hit a brand new all-time low of under 4.5X and
frankly, that’s a number I’d have considered impossible two years ago. And doubly impossible if
gold were priced where it was.
GLD gold holdings, 2016 to date (metric tonnes)
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600 2
500
61/4/1 61/13/3 61/42/6 61/02/9 61/41/21 71/41/3 71/8/6 71/1/9 71/82/11 81/62/2 81/22/5 81/61/8 81/9/11 91/7/2 91/6/5 91/13/7 91/42/01 02/22/1 02/71/4 02/41/7 02/7/01 12/4/1 12/13/3 12/32/6 12/71/9 12/31/21 22/01/3 22/6/6 22/13/8 22/52/11 32/32/2 32/71/5 32/41/8 32/7/11
mt 9.00 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.50
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50 source: SPDR GLD data
4.00
61/4/1 61/13/3 61/42/6 61/02/9 61/41/21 71/41/3 71/8/6 71/1/9 71/82/11 81/62/2 81/22/5 81/61/8 81/9/11 91/7/2 91/6/5 91/13/7 91/42/01 02/22/1 02/71/4 02/41/7 02/7/01 12/4/1 12/13/3 12/32/6 12/71/9 12/31/21 22/01/3 22/6/6 22/13/8 22/52/11 32/32/2 32/71/5 32/41/8 32/7/11
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

So it’s remarkable that despite all the headwinds faced, gold did this last week:
Now for sure, the Fed presser donked gold’s rise on the head midweek and then the BLS Jobs
report whacked it hard on Friday (with the normal moans and groans from the goldbugs
claiming suppression and a rigged market), but that weekly result is impressive to this desk and
should be to anyone else out there. Gold got hit with punctual bearish events in a backdrop that
doesn’t suit its profile, but still came away higher in price than this time last weekend.
Indeed, we’re in a market that’s now getting used to seeing the monetary metal wear a 2-
handle. An ounce of gold has traded at over U$2,000/oz every single day for the last eight
weeks and arguably, has been at U$2,000/oz since
November 21st, the date it popped back over the
psychologically important line, corrected no more
than U$10/oz under for a couple of days, then
moved up and zoomed to that (in)famous spike
high overnight December 4th (see point 1 on the
chart). When that didn’t hold and gold dropped
sharply back under the 2k line a week later (see
point 2), we the proponents of gold as sound
money let out yet another collective sigh and a
chorus of “here we go again”, but this time really
has been different.
The last time we ran an intro musing on gold was four weeks ago in IKN764, the weekend after
the last jobs report (at least I’m consistent). At the time gold was floating above the U$2k/oz
line, there was no reason to expect it to power higher but by the same token, the market
support was clearly there. Summing up that day, I expected…
“…gold to keep climbing but not to do anything that makes world headlines.
However, if those tracking charts above detect a break in that long-term
downtrend in gold sentiment, all bets are off and we may just see Wall St join
the Central Bank mavens in a desire to stock up on gold and if that happens,
goldbug dreams may still come true.”
That could have been freshly written for this weekend, its message is still 100% on-point. The
difference this time is that gold has just taken a good battering from news flow that, in other
points in the past, would have sent it tumbling back under the 2k line and to who-knows-what
level before flattening out. These days gold has backbone and that’s what you want from an
asset class if you think it has more upside.
However please be clear, this desk is still avoiding those “To Da Moon” predictions on gold that
are firmly based on what people think should be so, instead of what really is. Equally not ruling
one out, but just as we wrote four weeks ago, it would take a sea change in attitude toward
gold from the big Wall St instos and a new round of buying from them, instead of the slow and
chronic net sales out of the western world, for that to happen. On the other hand, eight weeks
of $2k/oz gold is very good news for the mining companies and, at some point, they are going
to have to get the love they deserve from higher top-line revenues…
3

 Even if they are run badly (as many are)
 Even if they aren’t growing production (ditto)
 Even if they are seeing rising costs (ditto ditto)
…because while the bifurcation of bullion to producers has been understandable (just look at
recent news and numbers out of Newmont and Barrick, the supposed “sector leaders”), there is
a limit to this breach. With gold remaining sticky above U$2,000/oz no matter what gets thrown
at it, the companies selling gold are going to benefit eventually, no matter how mediocre their
C-suites are (compared to their own self-images). Gold got knocked down last week, but it got
up again, got knocked down but it got up again, got knocked down but it got up again.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v): Handle the risk to get the reward
As promised, today we run the numbers on our new open position, Adventus Mining Corp
(ADZN.v) (ADVZF). Our first run at ADZN was in IKN763 dated January 7th 2024 and the main
fundies note “Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v): A pre-merger buying opportunity”. Perhaps not
my best note title, as the merger has now come and gone without seeing any meaningful shift
in the share price but near-term inertia aside, I still think this is a winning trade in the making
for two main reasons:
1) The strategy call we laid out in IKN763
2) The numbers that the Curipamba project offers
To be straight, the most important of those is the former and that’s why I based my original call
and purchases (I’ve now taken two bites at this particular apple and secured a very friendly
28.5c cost average) on the rationale in IKN763, so please see that report for more but by way
of a reminder, there were three main thrusts for the buy call and here’s the copypaste of the
titles we ran that day:
 A new President
 An advance in the permitting track
 A smart and market-friendly merger
All three of those have seen meaningful developments since IKN763, so a few lines on each:
New President Daniel Noboa has maintained his initial honeymoon period popularity with the
Ecuador citizenry and that’s a very good thing for ADZN. We remind readers that his family
investment office, named Nobis, is a strategic shareholder in the Curipamba/El Domo project
near the town of Las Naves in central Ecuador (from now on we’ll refer to it simply as
“Curipamba”) and that means the President has a vested interest in seeing this mine happen.
The Curipamba project has been a bone of significant contention over the years with anti-
mining protesters, often led by the powerful CONAIE indigenous pressure group, but the way
Noboa has consolidated his popularity thanks mainly to a hard and effective line taken against
the rise of narco-terrorism in the country means he has gained plenty of political capital. Ot put
in practical terms, the politically savvy CONAIE isn’t going to throw all its weight behind a
protest against a popular President, it’s far more likely to wait until the positive vibes fade
before hitting the streets. That gives both Noboa as President and Curipamba as a project some
political breathing space and we’ve seen fruits of that already.
Namely the approval of the key EIA permit for Curipamba. I was expecting the permit to come
in Q1 but perhaps not quite as quickly as it did, with the announcement coming on January 22nd
(2), that news covered on these pages. Also last week AZDN announced (3) the receipt of
another permit this time for its Tailings Storage Facility (TSF) at the project. That latest permit
isn’t a major surprise, as the big one to get is the EIA permit as that unlocks to rest of the
permitting system and means that as long as all the rest of the pieces are up to standard
technically, the secondary level permits required to build and operate the mine should come in
4

near automatic style. The permit award was a big step forward, but for some reason or another
the market decided to ignore this key award.
As for the merger with the Ross Beaty vehicle Luminex Resource, it closed in correct style on
January 25th after overwhelming support from shareholders on both sides of the fence. That
leaves us with this corporate structure, according to the company in its latest corporate
presentation (5), with our treasury estimate adjusted for the lapse since the last financial filing:
Shares out: 391.556m
Options: 20.99m
Warrants: 35.394m
RSUs: 5.488m
Fully diluted: 443.429m
Current share price: C$0.275
Market Cap: C$107.68m
Approx cash per S/O: 0.06c
All prices are in Unites State Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.75=CAD$1
Please note that despite having its main listing in Canadian Dollars, ADZN reports in USD, its
feasibility study and project economics also use the USD and what’s more, the USD is the
official currency in Ecuador. We therefore use USD as default.
To remind readers, we also know that ADZN comes with some big name strategic shareholders.
Aside from the aforementioned Nobis, Lumin Group (Beaty) owns around 15%, Wheaton
Precious Metals (WPM) owns 10& and royalty player Altius another 5%. That’s a decent roster
and when instos and smaller strategics are covered, it leaves only around 32% of the current
391.6m shares out in retail hands.
That brings us up to date on the conceptual side of this trade and its story, we now move to
the main event for today and run the numbers on its projects. In fact, we’re going to be very
specific and focus almost completely on Curipamba, its most advanced project. Not only that,
but we’re going to be most keen about the first ten years of Curipamba, rather than wade into
the second phase that involves sustaining capex spend and the opening up of underground
higher grade operations. That also means we merely doff our cap at ADZN’s #2 project, the
recently incorporated Condor that came with the Luminex merger. That has almost 8m oz of
gold under 43-101 compliance (including the inferred) and a PEA that is begging to be
optimized, but already frames an NPV of almost U$400m at U$1,600/oz gold. There’s also
“Greater Curipamba/El Domo” and the targets around the current development, plus another 12
early stage projects on its books from around and about Ecuador. So there’s a lot going on in
the background, but our focus will remain on its most advanced asset, the permitted Curipamba
and its first stage open pit project. The reason is simple: With a bill ostensibly at U$241m and
likely a lot more, Curipamba is the company-maker project and if it works, they’ll be able to
parlay and expand from there. It’s also what matters to the current share price and will decdide
whether ADZN becomes a successful trade or a failure.
The first thing to illustrate is the complexity of this mineral deposit and to to do, let’s go with
the Mineral Reserves Estimate (rather than the M+I resource), as the metal outlined on this
table forms the basis of the first ten years of mining and production at Curipamba:
5

I picked this table deliberately because it’s complicated. Curipamba/El Domo is a high grading
VMA (Volcanic Massive Sulphide) deposit and as is often the case with this type of
mineralization, it makes for a polymetallic mine. In this case, ADZN expects to produce five
payable metals from three different recovery circuits (makes for a fun flowthru chartin the
Feasibility Study) and in order of important they are copper, gold, zinc, silver and lead. In the
above chart you’ll also be able to make out (probably) there are three types of VMS
mineralization outlined at Curipamba, with different grades (as well as recovery percentages
and metallurgy) for “High Zinc”, “Mixed Zinc/Copper” and “High Copper” sulphide rock. That all
makes for a complex mine plan and production schedule, as well as a varied annual metals mix
leaving the mine gates.
And if that wasn’t enough, the ownership of Curipamba is complicated in two ways. Firstly it
has original owner and minority JV partner Salazar Resources (SRL.v), which gets a free carry
to production. The ownership and payback deal between ADZN and Salazar is slightly complex
but for our purposes, we can take as gospel the ADZN overall calculation as seen in the latest
corporate presentation, i.e. once all is said and done and assuming the base case metals prices,
ADZN will own 87% of the mine and Salazar carried for 13%. The second complication is the
stream held by Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), which has agreed to pay U$175.5m , a sum
that covers a major part of ADZN’s capex bill for the mine, in exchange for a stream on the
mine’s gold and silver:
 For gold (the main stream payable): WPM gets 50% of the gold produced and pays an
average of 20% spot until 150 Koz is delivered, at which point the stream drops to 33%
 For silver (the minor payable): WPM gets 75% of the silver produced and pays an
average of 20% spot until 4.6 Moz is delivered, at which point the stream drops to 50%
There are plenty of ways to account for that stream (in our number crunch below we’ve
separated it out from mine costs), but one away is to note that according to the company, the
AISC on the project rises from U$1.26/lb CuEq to U$1.82/lb CuEq once the stream is added. So
it represents an operating headwind of around 56c/lb CuEq, not so bad if copper is selling at
U$3.80/lb. And before moving on, it’s worth mentioning that while we’re expecting both capex
and opex for Curipamba to be higher than the 2021 Feasibility Study framework (inflation and
all that), the study was based on U$3.31/lb copper, U$1,630/oz gold, U$21/oz silver, U$1.16/lb
zinc and U$0.92/lb lead. As the main payables of copper and gold are substantially higher than
those baselines here in 2024, we can be reasonably confident that the reserve is going to get
through economic updates easily without losing its strong margins (these high overall grade
VMS deposits are famously good for gross margin).
There are all sorts of ways to showcase the complexity of this polymetallic VMS and its project
economics, so after due consideration I’m going to frame it this way (and if you want to know
more, I have a whole Excel full of numbers...fascinating for some ). These five small charts
show the expected annual production for each metal during the ten year open pit mine period
(before the underground takes over). As you can see, there’s a bias for the first two years for
the main copper and gold products…
Curipamba: Open pit copper prod. by year
…while third placed metal zinc a little more regular over the ten years and the minor payables
silver and lead also doing their thing. However, each metal shows variances over the ten year
6
38.33
53.82 53.91 58.02
11.43
00.22 92.22 71.91 79.61 51.4
Curipamba: Open pit gold production by year
Mlbs Cu
40
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
source: company filings
93735 70245
00504 80343 93673 81243 86613 47762 64612
995
Oz Au
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
source: company filings

period which comes from the open pit mine going through phases that favour high copper or
high zinc mineralization.
Curipamba: Open pit zinc prod by year
If we then apply the “current case” metals
prices we use in our number crunch
(below) of U$2,000/oz gold, U$23/oz silver,
U$3.80/lb copper, U$1.20/lb zinc and
U$1.10/oz lead, the chart you see below
pops out the other end, with dollar totals
for each year broken down by metal.
Years one, two and five see gross metal
revenues of over U$300m, year one with
the top end U$320m and a total metal
value over the ten years of U$2.217Bn. Also, if we average out the ten years we see that
37.9% of gross revenues comes from copper, 30.2% from gold, 21.0% from zinc, 8.9% from
silver and 1.9% from lead.
U$m Curimpamba: Estimated open pit gross revs by metal, per year
350
Zn subtotal
300 Pb subtotal
Cu subtotal
250
Ag subtotal
200 Au subtotal
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
source: company filings, IKN ests and calcs
However, the above chart is gross metal value at (roughly) current mioning prices, they don’t
take into account normal mining costs, corporate charges, country royalties and taxes, that
WPM stream on top and other matters too, so we now get to the numbery bit of today’s
overview.
Valuing Adventus Mining (ADZN.v)
This Excel model has been a lot of fun to work on and has plenty of moving parts. That means
it’s also easy to do the type of “Financial Reverse Engineering” that would allow an over-
enthusiastic analyst to decide what type of final target they’d like to shout about and then
tweak the numbers in order to get there. That’s another way of saying that your author has
tried hard to bake a lot (and I mean a LOT) of conservative and low-end parameters into this
model. I have deliberately tried to pitch to the low end and remove plenty of potential earnings
from the model, in order to keep it as real as possible and leave nearly all surprises to the
upside once the mine starts to produce and make money.
7
42.74
26.75
72.07
35.93
73.45
57.73 38.23 99.82 25.91 62.0
Mlbs Zn Curipamba: Open pit silver production by year
80
70
60
50
40
30 20 10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
source: company filings
479.0 230.1
884.1
411.1 480.1 499.0 268.0 85.0 474.0 310.0
Moz Ag
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6 0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
source: company filings
Curipamba: Open pit lead prod. by year
85.4
55.6 68.6
46.4 28.5
25.3 47.2 20.2 94.1 20.0
Mlbs Pb
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
source: company filings

And it will make money, be very clear on that. This type of mine, once built and in commercial
production, would run strong margins and throw off plenty of free cash flow and aside from its
improved background as seen in IKN763 is the reason ADZN should become a good trade. But
there are a lot of moving parts, so here’s a list of variables we see in the model:
 We value 100% of Curipamba on its ten years of open pit operations only. The price
target will take into account ADZN’s 87% ownership, but we ignore any benefit from the
eventual five years of underground operations planned or anything from its development
projects, Condor and others. We’re aiming low here folks, we need to show this will get
over the first hurdle.
 A final capex bill of around U$300m. That’s some U$59m higher than the 2021 Feasibility
Study (FS) assumption and tries to take into account the inflation we’ve seen since then.
 We assume the shares out count rises to 500m from the current 392m (or 443m fully
diluted), as a final equity raising to help pay for an expected capex shortfall of around
$40m from here would come as no surprise. ADZN has around U$240m assured from
WPM and Trafigura combined, plus its own treasury estimated this weekend at U$22m,
 A throughput of 1,850tpd, as outlined in the 2021 FS. Assuming 365 day production, that
makes for 675,250mt throughput per year
 Grades and recovery percentages for the five payable metals that average out over the
ten year mine period like this:
 Copper average grade of 1.93% and average recovery of 90%
 Gold average grade of 2.52 g/t and average recovery of 53%
 Zinc average grade of 2.49% and average recovery of 94%
 Silver average grade of 45.7 g/t and average recovery of 63%
 Lead average grade of 0.25% and average recovery of 82%
 Mining and processing cost of U$70/mt. This compares to the 2021 FS estimate of
U$56/mt and bakes plenty of conservatism into our model.
 TC/RC costs of 20%: That’s almost certainly too high, but I’m going to the conservative
side again firstly for the sake of prudence, but also as this is a five payable metal mine
and that can cause extra friction. Plus of course Trafigura has secured the off-take in
return for advancing a U$55m loan and Trafi can put devils in the details of their off take
contracts. With all that, I much prefer to put 20% friction on gross metals revenues.
 We account for the revenue stream with WOM by assuming only 20% of spot prices
come from the metal Curipamba delivers to the stream (50% gold, 75% silver).
 The 2% royalty payable to Altius, the 4% royalty payable to the government of Ecuador
(from EBIT) and a corporate tax rate of 22%. That final one may be way too
conservative, as the Noboa government is now offering tax holidays to new investment in
the country but once again, it’s best to go the conservative route and assume corp tax is
paid in full.
 Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization of U$20m per year. That’s a guess.
 G&A of U$6m, some 10% higher than the average as seen in the FS.
 Finance costs of U$15m, another guess.
 Other things
All the above criteria are rounded numbers from those seen in the 2021 FS, averaged out over
the ten year open pit mine period. We’re aiming for a “model year” average, rather than the
bias that will come from valuing ADZN on year one or year two production and revenues. Once
all those are in, plus a few other minor tweaks, we then apply the model to four metals price
cases:
 Stress Case: Copper U$3.50/lb, Gold U$1,700/oz, Zinc U$1.00/lb, Silver U$20/oz,
Lead U$0.90/lb, these to show how Curipamba holds up to lower prices
 Baseline Case: Copper U$3.70/lb, Gold U$1,900/oz, Zinc U$1.10/lb, Silver U$22/oz,
Lead U$1.00/lb, which I could have chosen to value ADZN today, but didn’t.
8

 Current Case: Copper U$3.80/lb, Gold U$2,000/oz, Zinc U$1.20/lb, Silver U$23/oz,
Lead U$1.10/lb
 Bluesky Case: Copper U$4.50/lb, Gold U$2,100/oz, Zinc U$1.40/lb, Silver U$26/oz,
Lead U$1.30/lb
ADZN: 100% Curipamba model year revs, by metal type (U$m)
Price decks stress baseline current bluesky
Cu (Mlb) 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8
U$/lb 3.50 3.70 3.80 4.50
Cu revs(U$m) 90.4 95.6 98.2 116.3
Au (Oz) 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8
U$/oz 1700 1900 2000 2100
**Au revs(U$m) 29.6 33.1 34.8 36.5
Zn (Mlb) 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8
U$/lb 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.40
Zn revs(U$m) 34.8 38.3 41.8 48.7
Ag (Moz) 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63
Ag U$/oz 20.0 22.0 23.0 26.0
**Ag revs(U$m) 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.5
Pb (Mlb) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
U$/lb 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.30
Pb revs(U$m) 2.7 3.0 3.4 4.0
GrossRevs(U$m) 162.6 175.5 183.9 212.0
TC/RC (U$m) -32.5 -35.1 -36.8 -42.4
2% royalty -2.6 -2.8 -2.9 -3.4
Net sales(U$m) 127.5 137.6 144.2 166.2
Sources: ADZN data, IKN calcs and ests
**revenues due to company after WPM stream payments
If we focus on the “Current Case”, we see that over 50% of gross revenues comes from copper
at U$3.80/lb and zinc is the second largest payable in dollar terms. That’s because the revenues
for gold drops from U$58m to U$34.8m and silver revenues drop from U$14.4m to U$5.8m due
to the friction of the WPM stream, which we remove at this point. We then chop 20% from the
TC/RC and the Altius “% royalty, too. That leaves net sales for the 100% Curipamba mine of
U$144.2m (of which 87% is attributable to ADZN, but we’ll do that later).
From there, we move to our model condensed income statement for the average of the ten
years of open pit mining:
ADZN: 100% Curipamba condensed income statement (U$m)
item stress baseline current bluesky
Sales (U$m) 127.5 137.6 144.2 166.2
Cash COGS 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8
Depreciation 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
G&A 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
fin. Costs 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
Op income 40.1 50.0 56.5 78.1
4% govt royal 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.8
Exploration 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Tax 6.8 8.9 10.2 14.8
9

Net income 24.0 31.5 36.3 52.5
Share out(m) 500 500 500 500
EPS 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.10
Capex 12 12 12 12
FCF 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.17
Sources: ADZN data, IKN estimates
Even after assuming a U$70/mt mining cost, some 25% higher than the company’s FS model,
and U$20m in (non cash) DD&A Curipamba still returns U$56,5m in operating income, of
11.3c/share, then assuming the company pays full Ecuador corporate tax, the net income of
U$36.3m or 7.25c/share.
So after being as hard as possible to a financial model without being totally unfair, then using
current metals prices, we get to this valuation table:
Sales & earnings model U$/oz Au prices Target price & valuation data for 87% of Curipamba owned
Ag spot (U$) 18 22 24 26 by ADZN, based on LoM avg of 10 yr open pit production
Sales (U$m) 127.5 137.6 144.2 166.2 12-month target $0.51 based on 6x EPS
Upside to target 84% U$22/oz Ag & U$1,700/oz Au
EPS 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.10 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $138 Enterprise value $111
FCF 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.17 P/sales (18) 1.00 EV/sales (18) n/a
P/E (18) 5.7 EV/EBITDA (18) n/a
P/E (22) 4.4 EV/EBITDA (22) 1.6
P/E (24) 3.8 EV/EBITDA (24) 1.4
The final insult to the uber bull minng guru bang-on-table price target is to choose a 6X ratio to
bottom line earnings, instead of the type of multiple that a mine can support and also after
probably subtracting too much tax. Even so and
based squarely on the first phase of production
that’s now permitted, very close to fully funded
and with Ecuador’s current President riding his
wave of popularity, likely to get green lighted
without too much indigenous pressure group
pushback, we still get a 51c target representing a
84% upside to this weekend. As far as I’m
concerned that’s more than enough to base a
starter trade in order to see whether ADZN can
deliver on its first step into production. Assuming
it does, there’s a long pipeline of interesting
projects now waiting for it to deliver once
Curipamba is running.
Stocks to Follow
If we include the newly incorporated SilverCrest Metals (SILV) into the mix there are now 15
open positions on our list and of those, seven went up last week (EQX, ADZN.v, RIO.v, MARI.to,
CTGO, NCAU.v, ERO.to), two were unchanged (ALDE.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v) and five losers
(MAI.v, SOLG.to, SILV, PGZ.v, PAU.cse), with no double figure winners or losers to report this
week. As for the running total of 15, six are in the green and the other nine are in the red.
10

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.32 52.4% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.50 0.9% Leverage trade at U$2k/oz Au
Adventus Mining ADZN.v SPEC BUY C$0.285 7-Jan-24 C$0.275 -3.5% may add, permit play
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.33 -60.2% Permit approved, rebounding
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 26-May-23 C$3.36 10.2% New: Quality Cu developer
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$16.70 -10.7% FY24 production, now moving
SolGold SOLG.to hold C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.135 -49.1% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.115 -43.9% Showing signs of life
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.78 8.3% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$21.16 11.7% High quality Cu prod, cheap
SilverCrest Met SILV WATCH U$5.62 31-Dec-23 U$5.52 -1.8% potential silver trade end Q1
Pan Global Cop PGZ.v WATCH C$0.23 31-Dec-23 C$0.195 -15.2% tinycap Cu in Spain
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.09 5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.28 -55.5% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies, but keeping it brief this week.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. The idea behind this
addition was laid out in IKN767 last weekend in the Market Watching note “SilverCrest Metals
(SILV) (SIL.to) 4q23 production”, here we note that the Watch List line is now open and with a
quick reminder that the plan is to observe for the next five weeks or so before SILV reports its
4q23 financials. I think those numbers will impress the street, but a lot will depend on silver
sentiment at the time. Watching and if circumstances play
out, I’ll be looking to run a near-term fliptrade at some point.
Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v): Still easy to buy, I’m
continued to be tempted by that 19c price and if copper
perks up, I’ll buy that number.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): A better week for MARI and
I’m happy with the cost average so far. Volume continues to
be thin and it would take very little to see this float back up
to the $3.50 or $3.60 level.
Equinox Gold (EQX): This is the one that I think will run in the weeks to come, it has the
right combo of leverage from its high cash cost, big overall production of around 500k oz gold
per year and the organic upside baked in, as Greenstone comes close to first pour. This is a
great price for a speculation on gold and I may add a few more before it reports its earnings.
The Copper Basket
After five weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 2.64% to level stakes:
11

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.v 7.16 186.824 1554.38 8.32 16.2%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 179.221 702.55 3.92 -5.1%
3 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 383.89 13.00 10.2%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 312.85 3.36 -2.0%
5 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 212.52 0.92 -33.3%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 172.49 1.58 -9.7%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 132.46 0.78 -12.4%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 175.97 96.78 0.55 -12.7%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 222.86 86.92 0.39 4.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 108.87 51.17 0.47 80.8%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 40.84 0.66 8.2%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 33.88 0.53 -8.6%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 23.45 0.135 12.5%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 17.53 0.165 -8.3%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 14.47 0.07 0.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 2.64%
Goodbye January and a good week for The The Copper Basket 2024, weekly evolution
5%
Copper Basket, as it moved into positive overall
4%
territory for the first time this year. There was
3%
only one loser among the 15 components (COR.v, 2%
down 12.5%) and four other unchanged stocks 1%
(ALDE.v, OCO.v, QCCU.v, ECU.v) and that leaves 0%
-1%
ten winners, so we’ll just note the biggest moves
-2%
among them and move on via a cheer for
-3%
American Eagle (AE.v up 16.1%) and Los Andes -4%
Copper (LA.v up 12.1%), with Arizona Sonoran -5% source: IKN calcs
(ASCU.to up 9.0%) taking a podium place. Jan1st Jan8th 15th 22nd 29th feb5th
What makes that win-heavy list above more surprising is that it happened against the flow of
the underlying metal:
Copper was going swimmingly in the first two and a half days of last week, but as this report
out Jan 31st suggests, it was as much on hope as on anything solid (6):
“Copper is holding up mostly in anticipation of additional support from the Chinese
government.”
…but with much depending on the macro newsflow from the FOMC Wednesday and BLS Jobs
Friday (see intro), Monday and Tuesday didn’t really count. So when copper started selling off
due to the hawkish stance taken by the Fed and then that strong BLS number which
underscored the market’s new assumptions on rate cuts coming later, rather than sooner, you’d
have expected the stocks to have been dragged down with the metal.
12

 Glass half empty: We’re back at the U$3.80/lb default level again, after making that
mini-breakout on January 24th, let’s call it two weeks ago.
 Glass half full: Copper juniors and explorecos managed to ignore the weakness in
copper-the-metal during the second half of the week
Overall, the half full glass wins out today and suggests the market is getting wise to the value
on offer in copper equities. Which reminds me; Here’s an extract from a analysis report on
copper published by BMO last week (thank you reader DC). If you’d like to read the whole thing
drop me a line and I’ll forward (you know my mail address), but I’m zeroing in on this part of
the analysis and the way the BMO guys see copper prices now, compared to later on this
quarter and then further out:
Almost precisely the scenario and set-up your author has posited since before Christmas, with
1) Chinese New Year providing the near-term dampener and 2) low overall inventories pointing
to a rebound further out. Here’s how BMO continues its framing of the copper market today:
That’s a good point about steel prices providing some sort of lead indicator and we also note
that the near-term LME futures contango chart steepened again last week, an indicator of slack
near-term demand but today you don’t get that link of graphic, instead this (7):
“Indicating weak current demand, the discount for LME cash copper to the three-month
contract remains close to a record high of $108.”
That same market wrap report out Friday noted the pressure on copper due to the BLS
Unemployment report on Friday and the ensuing rally in the US Dollar, “…adding downward
pressure on top of patchy global industrial activity and concerns about demand in China.” It
also shows a separate anal yst underscoring one of our other basic points on the current state
of the copper market:
“We remain positive on copper following the supply downgrades that were announced
in the fourth quarter and have tightened 2024 balances,” said Standard Chartered
analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan.
“However, demand concerns remain, with ongoing worries over China’s real estate
sector and the trajectory of Fed policy.”
You don’t have to go back very far to recall all the “Copper Gonna Fly NOW!” talk from people
who added up the supply crimps and jumped to conclusions, without noting the drop in demand
at the same time. China is also going through a bit of a moment, that’s reflected in the data…
Reflecting weaker Chinese demand for imported copper is the Yangshan premium
SMM-CUYP-CN, which has tumbled 50% since early December.
A trader said: “The trend for metals is down due to a lack of China’s physical demand.”
…and not for the first time, talk early last week of a Beijing government stimulus turned out to
be another mirage of wishful thinking. What we’re left with is a market that continues with the
same drivers as before:
 We know supply has been crimped (those low TC/RC charges show how Chinese
smelters are fighting for feed)
 We know demand is going through a slack period, with Chinese New Year and a
market sell-off flashing its own signal on top
13

 We know copper buyers are willing to snap up bargain prices, but continue to baulk
at paying anything close to U$4.00/lb on the open market
It leaves us with a copper price that is happy to maintain its sideways trajectory. For the time
being, there’s no reason for it to do otherwise but you can be sure that when China comes back
from its New Years celebrations in the third week of this month, the market will be watching
the demand signals like a hawk.
Moving on, it’s the end of another month and we wheel out the long-term copper inventory
tracking charts, with little change in the aggregate numbers:
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
14
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
However, the futures systems mix is beginning to changer and LME has come off its historic
high total market percentage seen at the end of 2023, while SHFE begins to do its standard Q1
thing and take more inventory on board as we enter and leave the Chinese New Year holiday
week.
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von 32naj
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
There isn’t much to reads into this months longer-term numbers, so we’ll move swiftly on to our
regular weekly check on world copper inventories, data as always from Chile’s Cochilco:
 The quiet physical market continues, which is what we expected at this point in the
post-Christmas-pre-CNY period, and movements in copper have been roughly as
expected to close Friday at 230,479mt.
 The re-stock at Shanghai’s SHFE has started to pick up speed, with 18,245mt added
last week as we move toward the Chinese New Year hiatus. The total this weekend
stands at 68,777mt and while adding 18kmt to 50kmt is a big percentage jump, it’s
what we get this time of year and that should accelerate on the other side of the
holiday.
 The most interesting change last week came at the LME, where copper stocks dropped
by 11,125mt to close at 140,225mt, with most of that leaving warehouses in Europe
(and over half out of Rotterdam, Holland). That’s less likely to be end users grasping
supply, more likely to be insto speculators securing physical copper at current prices,
looking to sell back later.
 The Comex saw an overall drop, the first one for a while, but at 627mt it is once again
“no biggie”. The Comex copper warehouse total this weekend comes to 21,477mt.
The dedicated SHFE inventories chart shows the 2024 uptick beginning on the right and plenty
of examples in previous years of what we get at this point on the annual calendar.

Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 0202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a few of our basket stocks:
Hercules Silver (BIG.v): Third week running with a note on BIG.v as the market continued to
warm to the implications of that hole #26 we reported last weekend. The moves are volatile
and the type you get from a “hot exploreco”, as are the confident “no brainer mine”
declarations from its fans.
American Eagle (AE.v): The other hot copper exploreco story at the moment, AE had a good
week as speculation rises on what NAK might turn out to be. Watching closely.
NGEx Resources (NGEX.v): Two price charts for NGEX.v, as on Thursday somebody came
for the stock and pushed it to a new ATH on a high volume day (below left), only for Friday and
the general selling to reverse that and leave NGEX with a gain of just 2c on the week. However,
that’s when the chart below right kicks in and we see that the trend is most definitely this
stock’s friend.
The Producer Basket
After 5 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 7.98% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 39.66 34.41 -16.9%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1761.54 27.15 15.41 -14.8%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 496.54 24.64 49.62 -9.5%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 20.60 107.25 -3.2%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 4.97 13.65 -16.4%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 2.89 12.14 -4.0%
7 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 2.50 12.37 -4.6%
8 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 2.34 3.78 -21.4%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.17 6.38 -0.8%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 0.97 6.52 11.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -7.98%

Despite the six week-over-week losers (GOLD, FNV, PAAS, LUGDF, HL, DPMLF) outnumbering
the four winners (NEM, AEM, EGO, WDOFF), the basket average improved by 0.64% and beat
the GDX (-0.2%) benchmark quite handily. That’s mostly because we have Wesdome (WDOFF
up 14.0%) as a level weights participant in our list and that big weekly mover has pushed us
into a clear early lead in our 2024 battle against the median. Most of the other movers were
small and in the +/- 2% range, the only other outlier being the 5.3% lost by silver-biased Hecla
(HL). As with The Copper Basket (above), we now have enough of a data sample to debut the
2024 tracking charts…
The 2024 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and The 2024 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
4% comparative to GDX control between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
1.5%
2%
1.0%
0%
0.5%
-2%
0.0%
-4%
-0.5%
-6%
-8% ikn -1.0%
-10% gdx control -1.5%
-2.0%
-12%
-14% -2.5%
Jan1st Jan7th 14th 21st 28th feb4th
Jan1st Jan7th 14th 21st 28th feb4th
source: IKN calcs source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
…and in the first five weeks we’ve pulled out a 1.66% lead on the GDX (above right). However,
as the main comparative tracking chart (above left) shows, there’s nothing to write home about
here and so far it’s “less worse”, rather than a positive result in cash terms. Still, if we can keep
this up we’ll end up with a true alpha generating mix this year compared to the GDX, and that’s
a real objective.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF): What caused this?
While GDX trod water and most gold producers moved by a percent or two in either direction,
Wesdome (chart above the main Canadian WDO.to ticker) surged forward and ended up
13.99% W-o-W. That’s 14% in real talk and after due consideration, I see three possible
causes:
1) Earnings beat incoming. On Tuesday Desjardins updated its EPS estimates for WDO
and forecast a 10c EPS for 4q23. That raised by eyebrows, because my house model was
plenty lower than that so I went back to check my numbers. After a while and assuming
a reasonable best case for gold revenues and costs, I got this far:
WDO.to: Operations overview chart
16
496.66 111.15 385.51 139.16 253.06 975.1 328.16 283.56 955.3- 540.57 233.76 317.7 107.67 222.96 974.7 555.48 279.09 714.6- 696.96 514.97 917.9-
201
88
41
C$m
120
110 revenues
100 total op expenses
90 Op earnings
80
70
60 50 40 30
20
10
0
-10
-20
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23est
source: company filings, IKN calcs

By assuming an average received price of C$2,700/oz on the 37,620 oz gold we know
they sold in Q4 (because they told us on Jan 15th (8)), then a lower costs performance
than I’d plugged in, I got to an operating earnings of 9c/share, which eventually
estimates at a 7c EPS. In other words, unless Desjardins has an inside track on a big tax
break coming in Q4, 10c is a stretch so I hope that’s why it didn’t run.
2) WDO is an M&A target: Yes, this is possible. We know WDO is a bit of an outlier being
a two mine operator in low risk and highly prized address. We also know Kiena is finally
getting to the deeper prize and it wouldn’t be a surprise to find one of its cashed up
peers making a run at it before Kiena starts spitting out the free cash flow we expect.
3) WDO is playing catch-up: A 14% move while peers tread water implies good news (of
course), but it might just be a rebound that bakes a better Kiena into the pie after over a
year of delays and concerns.
Put a gun to my head and I’d place a bet on the third possibility. Nothing wrong with that of
course, but it would be the least aggressive driver of last week’s move. As for that Desjardins
earnings estimate, we’ll find out whether their 10c or my best-case 7c (and probably lower) is
closest come March 12th and the YE filings.
The TinyCaps List
After 5 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 9.48% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 221.5 22.15 0.10 53.8%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 67.27 8.07 0.12 -11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 34.23 0.32 88.2%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 24.77 0.165 -5.6%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 8.86 0.10 0.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 5.72 0.08 6.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 7.84 0.11 -15.4%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 34.16 0.70 -6.7%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 219.21 19.73 0.09 0.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 12.43 0.105 -12.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 9.48%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Even though the basket average dropped by 0.78% last week, you cannot accuse the 2024
TinyCaps list of being boring or irrelevant this year.
TinyCaps, 2024 weekly tracker
One stock remained unchanged (ARIC.v), four 12%
stocks rose (DMX.v, KLDC.v, LMS.v, SURG.v) and 10%
five stocks dropped (BAY.v, EDG.v, PA.v, STS.v, 8%
VAU.v) and among them we saw significant
6%
percentage moves in either direction. Biggest
4%
winners were Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v up 42.9%),
2%
17
0%
Jan1st Jan7th 14th 21st 28th feb4th
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

District Metals (DMX.v up 18.5%) and Latin Metals (LMS.v up 14.3%), while biggest losers
came from Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v down 28.6%), Palamina (PA.v down 15.4%) and Latin
Metals (LMS.v down 14.3%).
District Metals (DMX.v): On Thursday DMX announced (9) the closing of its 22c placement
that raised an upsized C$4.5m in gross proceeds, then on Friday the stock popped even further
and closed at 32c, its highest close since 2021 and before it re-tooled to focus on Sweden. That
was mostly on the back of the latest surge in interest in uranium and speculation that Sweden
is about to pass legislation to allow U exploration and development in its country.
Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v): Our warnings last weekend were warranted. On Tuesday
BAY.v’s partner earning into Storm, Australia’s American West (AW1.ax), announced a maiden
resource for Storm of 17.5mt grading 1.2% Cu and 3.4g/t Ag (approx 451m lbs Cu and 1.9m oz
Ag) and once BAY shares could react on Tuesday Canadian time, they did this:
Ouch, so much for that hype. In other locations, 1.2% copper would win applause and prizes
but this is the far North end of Nunavut and you either need far better grade, or a bigger scale
of resource, to make this resource into a viable mine project. The JV has announced its plans to
chase after the latter by drilling new targets and out-stepping in order to increase tonnage,
they’re going to have to work hard.
Kirkland Lake Discovery Corp (KLDC.v): We noted last week how KLDC.v had dropped
hard for no particular reason, this week saw it get back all the lost ground in January by rising
42.9%...again on thin volume. A round trip that was
virtually impossible to trade, as even if you snagged
(let’s say) 10k of those shares at 7.5c, you’d now
have a gross profit of $250…if you could liquidate
them.
We also had news from KLDC last week, first an
agreement with a local First Nations tribe (always
important when working Canada) and then this NR
(10), which announced the start of the second phase
of its 10km drill program at its Kirkland Lake property
by putting 4km into the Hurricane Lake target (see
the map in the NR for more).
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Colombia: The anti-mining Petro government makes its move
Don’t say we didn’t try to warn you. Last week the Gustavo Petro government of Colombia, via
its Ministry of Mines and Energy and its Ministry of the Environment & Sustainable Development
18

finally revealed its hand (11) and position regarding mine developments in the country. Having
been under orders from the country's judiciary to pass new laws to protect ecologically sensitive
areas and regions in the country since August 2022 (mere days after the Petro government
took office) and having tried to present law bills to the effect to Congress only to see them held
up in committee, the two ministries expedited an executive decree that effectively gives the
government to power to declare any area of the country a "provisional nature reserve", a move
which would then suspend the permitting track of any mining development. To translate the
cover letter of Decree 044/2024, its "Establishes criteria to declare and outline reserves of
natural resources temporarily". In other words and in practical terms, if any rural or "natural"
zone or area is under dispute between anti-mining locals and a mining company trying to move
forward its project, the government now has the power to move in, declare the zone a
"temporary nature reserve" and halt permitting or development until studies have been carried
out to determine whether said area deserves to become an official nature reserve. It almost
goes without saying that last week's decree sets no time limit on the studies required to decide
whether any newly denominated "temporary reserve" becomes permanent or not.
Unsurprisingly, the mining lobby in Colombia is up in arms about this executive decree and for
one thing, say it is not applicable as it goes against established national laws (which means
courtroom battles ahead). Indeed, the President of the mining chamber of commerce
"Colombian Association of Mining (ACM)", Juan Camilo Nariño, said the decree (translated)
"...ignores constitutional and organic law and could be used in an arbitrary
and subjective manner to stop the development of new mining activities, as it
permits the declaration of reserve areas of natural resources and the
suspension of mining in said areas, without any previous studies or technical
criteria applied”. He went on: "The decree is ambiguous and generates much
uncertainty in respect to its impact on projects under development. Therefore,
we ask the Ministry of the Environment to clarify whether this decree respects
the legally acquired rights of current mining titles."
This desk has stated time and again that the Petro government is anti-mining to its core. It’s
taken a year and half to get this far and to date, all we’ve seen are frustrated efforts to pass
laws or get debates on a mining reform law that was clearly in no rush, but this decree (which
will almost certainly be challenged by mining companies as unconstitutional at some point)
shows the government’s ambivalence toward the industry. Instead of opening the country up
for legal battles in the international courts by actively banning mining or passing laws that
would infringe on previously acquired rights,, the Petro government has opted for the “delay
them forever” strategy that leaves concessions valid, but demands endless and indefinite
studies on contentious concessions. And yes, this is bad news for any mining company working
the country and even worse for any project with significant community or environmental
opposition. I’ll continue to use the MINESA/Aris Soto Norte project located next to (or in,
depending on who you’re talking to) the Paramo de Santander reserve. But there are plenty of
others.
Mexico’s election begins to get media airtime
The last time we updated on the early running for LatAm’s biggest programmed political event
in 2024, the Mexico General Elections set for June 2nd, was in IKN760 dated, December 10th
2023 and the prosaically entitled “Brief update on the 2024 Mexico election”. Back then in one
of the few polls being conducted, the candidate for the ruling Morena party coalition and
AMLO’s hand-picked dauphine, Claudia Sheinbaum, held a big lead of 48% to 24 over her only
serious rival for the job, the right wing coalition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez. So whatever happens,
we’re almost certain to get Mexico’s first ever woman Head of State once this election is done
and that alone is no bad thing at all.
Time to get up to date and for that, we use the poll from Mexico’s serious biz newspaper El
Financiero, which saw its latest update last week (12). Here’s the main graphic from the note,
with your author scribbling in some English translation to help matters along:
19

Though El Financiero headlined its note with a rather dramatic “Elections 2024: Gap Between
Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Down from 22 to 16 Points”, that’s still a massive gap and with battle
lines largely drawn and a majority of Mexican’s already stating they have made up their minds
on who to vote for, it’s still a commanding lead with four months to go. There is the outside
chance that third placed candidate Jorge Álvarez Gálvez of the Citizen’s Movement party, who
has been chosen as candidate after Samuel García stepped out of the race late last year,
provides a bit of competition to the front two but be clear, it would be a major shock if either
opponent even got close to Sheinbaum at this juncture. Consider her hot favourite for the win.
What does this mean for mining? Ostensibly, a win for Sheinbaum would mean a continuation
of the current policies being enacted by Morena under AMLO and they’ve not been the
friendliest for the sector in recent years. However, the current “no open pit permits” pledge is
something from AMLO’s brain rather than his acolytes (and we’ve seen permits come out as
well, so much for the blanket ban) and Sheinbaum’s personal exposure and knowledge of the
mining sector is limited (her background is that of the smart and sharp urban politico, having
been mayor of DF Mexico). Any new Morena government is likely to being in a new set of rules
and its own projects and there’s no reason to suppose that the AMLO permit freeze should
continue.
Argentina: Javier Milei has a good week
Friday evening gave us a key moment in the new and potentially transformative Javier Milei
government in Argentina. By a vote of 144 ayes to 109 nays, the Milei government got passage
of his “Omnibus Law” (Ley Omnibus) package through Congress’s lower house of deputies and
clowe to becoming law. From here, the package formally known by the translation (deep
breath) “Basis and Starting Points for the Freedom of Argentines” (exhale) goes to the Upper
House (Senate) where it shouldn’t have any issue in being voted up and then to the President’s
desk, where it gets signed into law. Neither of those should take very long.
A couple of notes on the Omnibus Law and what its passage implies, first a general overview
and then something specific to mining:
General overview: When Milei sent the massive reform package to Congress, it contained 664
law projects. That was eventually reduced to 382 in the final bill that was passed on Friday.
That could be construed as an issue for the type of deep reforms Milei wants to enact in the
country, as we’ve already chewed over his general plan which goes something like this:
 Shock therapy moves to open economy, free floating currency, slashing current account
deficit etc
 Argentina goes into deep recession, largely caused by the double whammy of an
inflation spike and loss of earnings caused by the removal of currency controls and
price subsidies (e.g. take rank and file Argentines when their January electricity bills
arrive in a few days’ time)
20

 Aim for a V-shaped recovery as country assets become “cheap” for outside investment
(e.g. Milie plans to privatize “as many entities as possible” currently under State
ownership)
 Emerge quickly out of the sharp recession we’re bound to see in 2024, create free
market jobs, growth and prosperity
 And what could possibly go wrong?
A lot, obviously. One of those issues is that of falling between two stools. We know Milei will get
his quick and deep recession as it’s already started, but if the reform package ends up being
luke-warm rather than fully cooked, it heightens the risk that the V-shape fails to form. At
present Milei enjoys enough popular support for his plans to be able to ride the inevitable
protests from his political opposition, but that’s bound to dissolve if he fails to deliver on his
promise to the faithful, basically “It’ll be rough but it won’t be for long”. We’ve seen this type of
failure in Argentina’s recent past as well, the Macri government (2015 – 2019) promised to beat
inflation and being growth and missed on both due to the wishy-washy implementation of his
plans. Therefore, seeing a law package get cut from 664 projects to 382 evokes thoughts of a
prolonged recession in the pipeline (and you can be sure his opposition had that in mind when
allowing the bill’s passage on Friday, the concept of giving someone enough rope is well
established in politics). However, Milei doesn’t seem to be too concerned about that and as long
as he retains enough popular support, one of the mechanisms he can use now (as part of the
deal) is extended powers of law changes by executive decree. In other words, rather than last
week’s “Ley Onmibus” being the endgame, it’s more like an opening gambit for a President who
is going to move again and again in 2024 to change laws and open up Argentina’s economy. It
all rests on Milei being able to retains enough support and part of that is getting the
international support he requires. We went over that a two weeks ago in IKN766 and the note
“Argentina: Milei’s opening gambits”, including reference to the way he’s trying to frame his
country as the first line of defence against the left wing plus the more practical support from a
U$4.7Bn line of credit agreed with The IMF. That loan was formally approved last week and
means Milei has fiscal breathing room with Argentina’s biggest creditor. Be in no doubt, Milei
will move to add to the country’s debt pile in 2024 and also adds to the risk being heaped onto
his opening gambits. If he fails, he’ll fail in spectacular style (think De La Rua in 2001).
Mining specific: That’s enough high falutin’ political commentary on Argentina, or at least
enough to show the risk/reward ballpark scenario of the country under Milei in 2024. We now
return to the passage of the Omnibus Law last Friday and one of the bills that made it into the
final 338 package was “Title Six, Chapter Seven” the initiative to alter the so-called “Glacier
Law”, which prohibits and/or restricts the development of mining projects in the Andean
Cordillera above a specific altitude or when in close proximity to a glacier or peri-glacier water
source. That’s now been partially rolled back and most importantly, the rules governing
development in peri-glacier zones have been dropped. This allows certain mine projects that
bump up against glacier zones (such as Glencore Pachón or McEwen Copper Los Azules) to get
an easier permitting passage, or perhaps more immediately the Barrick operated Veladero mine
can expand into its peri-glacial zone and extend mine life. For what it’s worth, media opposed
to Milei and his reforms reported on “The Mining Lobby” being active in Buenos Aires on
Thursday and Friday last week, plus high traffic Argentina social media channels this weekend
have been full of environmental activists bemoaning the imminent death of the country due to
it being turned into a desert, all thanks to Javier Milei. If you’d like to see the before/after
wording of the old Glacier Law and its replacement, this link (13) has both (Spanish language).
Expect to hear plenty of “happy with pro-mining stance of Milei government” noises out of the
Argentina exposed mining companies during the upcoming conference season, with BMO Miami
and PDAC the likely next platforms for the big miners.
Chile in recession
Thursday saw Chile’s beancounter people announce (14) its monthly IMACEC economic activity
results for December 2023 and therefore the year and it wasn’t good news for the Boric
administration. The 1% drop in activity compared to December 2023 compared to the median
21

forecast of a 0.5% drop and is a big miss. It also implies a 2023 GDP reading of negative 0.2%
for the year and that’s recession, no matter how you paint it. Part of the calculation is the
“Mining IMACEC”, which showed a final total of negative 0.5% for 2023 and was one of the
main reasons Chile has posted an overall GDP drop.
El Salvador: Bukele wins his election this weekend
In 2023 we ran a couple of pieces on El Salvador, the presidential election, the high likelihood
that incumbent Nayib Bukele would win another term and what it might mean for mining in the
country. The first main one was in IKN749 dated September 24th, “El Salvador and a
Presidential election and mining” and then the follow-up note in IKN752 dated October 15th, “El
Salvador: More signals of the new pro-mining attitude”, was the last extended mention. Here’s
a brief extract from the latter, by way of a reminder:
“…the government of right wing and highly popular President Nayib Bukele looked set
to re-open the country to formal level metals mining in 2024 assuming that President
Bukele were re-elected (and that despite the current country laws prohibiting him from
running again). As both his candidacy and eventual victory in 2024 look highly likely,
recent jungle drums from the country may make it into the Next Big Thing from
exploration stage mining companies looking for highly prospective and cheap land
packages to explore and develop for metals, be they gold/precious or other.”
Which brings us to this weekend. The election is upon us today and it’s not a case of whether
Bukele wins, it’s by how much as it’s going to be a headline-making landslide. We’ll leave the
political consequences of his re-election to others, here we focus on mining and note that the
waters are still relatively calm in El Salvador on the subject, but once Bukele’s new term begins
and parliament reconvenes, we’re going to see formal mining in El Salvador back on the agenda
(and not just for Bitcoin). IKN749 goes into the potential of its rich and mostly untapped gold
Belt zone, with to date the only advanced development project on the FDI radar being
OceanaGold’s (OGC.to) Dorado gold project, which has a 43-101 compliant M+I resource of
1.43m oz grading a strong 10.4 g/t AuEq (Au and Ag), plus 300k oz inferred on top. Though not
the biggest resource in the world, that grade is the stuff from which mines are made.
Market Watching
Next week
Conclusion
IKN768 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Adventus (ADZN.v) may not have sprung yet, but the quick progress it’s made on
permitting and the financing package that will have no problem in topping off if
required, now that the company has grown via merger and brought in some Canadian
A-Listers to help develop Curipamba, all point to it having plenty of upside from this
current price. Our model today has tried to be as mean as possible to the company, but
it still comes up with 84% for the next 12 months and if it gets to build Curipamba
there’s a lot of growth to come behind it. Ecuador is not a jurisdiction for everyone but
the Noboa presidency has brought with it a true window of relief for FDI. If you can
handle the risk that will always be latent, this is a sleeper so get some before it wakes
up.
 Copper has flattered to deceive once again, but our roadmap has always been “wait
until Year of the Dragon”, we’ll see if there’s true demand appetite in two weeks’ time.
 Avoid Colombia. Seriously.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
22

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
(2) https://www.adventusmining.com/news/122623
(3) https://www.adventusmining.com/news/122626
(4) https://www.adventusmining.com/news/122624
(5) https://www.adventusmining.com/storage/presentations/adzn---corporate-presentation---2024-q1-2024-01-29---final-
web-1706541383.pdf
(6) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-claws-higher-on-hopes-for-more-chinese-support-measures/
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-extends-fall-under-pressure-from-stronger-dollar/
(8) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2024/Wesdome-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-
and-Full-Year-2023-Production-Results-Provides-Multi-Year-Guidance-and-Management-Update/default.aspx
(9) https://districtmetals.com/news/district-metals-announces-closing-4-point-5-million-bought-deal-private-placement-
financing
(10) https://www.kirklandlakediscoveries.com/post/kirkland-lake-discoveries-commences-phase-2-of-10-000-m-drill-
program
(11) https://www.las2orillas.co/decreto-044-de-2024-expedido-por-el-gobierno-nacional-materializa-un-riesgo-inminente-
a-la-permanencia-y-el-futuro-del-sector-minero-en-colombia/
(12) https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/2024/01/29/baja-brecha-a-16-puntos-sheinbaum-48-y-xochitl-
32/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
(13) https://clubminero.com/contenido/7248/glaciares-en-ley-omnibus-la-tensa-espera-minera
(14) https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/2024/02/01/1120338/imacec-chile-recesion.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
23

Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
24

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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