IKN #767Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 767, January 28th 2024
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Life gets in the way, The FOMC and US Jobs.
Fundamental Analysis: Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v): Next week.
Stocks to Follow: Fortuna Silver (FSM), Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Soma Gold (SOMA.v),
Adventus Mining (ADZN.v), Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Equinox
Gold (EQX), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Hercules Silver (BIG.v), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Faraday
Copper (FDY.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Lundin Gold (LUGDF).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Surge Copper (SURG.v), Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v),
Kirkland Lake Discovery Corp (KLDC.v).
Regional Politics: Deferred.
Market Watching: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) redux, SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) 4q23
production.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s edition
 There’s no trade heads-up today because we’re not buying or selling anything this
week, but there will be a new name on the Stocks to Follow list this time next week.
SilverCrest Metals Inc (SILV) (SIL.to) is one of the few silver stocks worth taking
seriously and we’ve kept an eye on its development for the last three quarters or so.
With the recent selling and last week’s 4q23 production report that I believe has been
misunderstood by the market (not the first time with this stock), we need to watch this
one more closely going forward.
 However, the SILV note is the only substantive part of IKN767. Today’s edition is light
on content and it wasn’t supposed to be this way. Today’s intro makes the whining
excuses for the lack of content in the main fundies section and Regional Politics.
 At least it wasn’t a busy week for news, with markets mostly calm after the recent
storm and metals prices perking up a little. Copper is on our mind again and for that,
check out the metal’s dedicated section for the reasons why I’m not buying into the
latest round of Copper Bull narratives just because its spot price popped 10c/lb.
 Also in The Copper Basket, the late 2023 hotpot stock Hercules (BIG.v) surprised many
(myself included) by publishing a new assay NR that included a promising looking hole.
It was enough to bring some new momentum into what was looking like a broken story
and quite right, too.
Life gets in the way
Today’s is a light edition, so before we go any further please accept my apologies as there’s no
main Fundies section and no Regional Politics write-ups. I had every intention of putting
together a “Why I have bought Adventus Mining Stock Twice” note this week, a more thorough
analysis of the company now thatb its merger with Luminex is complete, to complement the
more strategic overview report “Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v): A pre-merger buying
1

opportunity” as seen in IKN765 dated January 7th. But that hasn’t happened this weekend
because life got in the way and I’ve had to attend to matters connected to the upcoming
momentus event due to hit this household in about eight weeks’ time. Also, it’s worth noting on
other occasions have delayed publication of the Weekly by one day and put together the
missing note together (and the Regional Politics notes that are also missing this week), but in
this case and this week I also need to leave my tomorrow Monday free. So all in all, you get a
short and obviously sub-standard edition this week. On the bright side, there’s less the trudge
through and likely to be fewer typos.
There’s no real time pressure on the AZDN note and one week won’t change its argument in
the slightest, so it happens in IKN768 instead.
The FOMC and US Jobs
We mark your cards with two big macro events for the week:
1) On Tuesday and Wednesday we have the latest FOMC, with the meeting announcement out
as usual 2pm EDT Wednesday and then Jerome “Just Close The F___ing Door” Powell’s presser
half an hour later. We’re not going to get a rate cut this week (unless they pull a serious
surprise), so this one is all about forward guidance and the communiqué wording will be
suitably scoured for hints on whether the rate cuts begin in March or not. At present, the
market has five cuts baked into the pie for 2024. Historically, the periods when the Fed cuts
rates in order to stave off a hard landing are good for the price of gold and particularly good for
the gold miners, so if the Fed indicates cuts coming sooner rather than later we could see our
sector of focus rally. And may stars, Newmont needs all the help it can get.
2) Then on Friday it’s the US BLS Employment Report for January, with current consensus of
+162k NFP jobs added and the headline employment rate to notch up on tenth to 3.8%,
according to the highly recommended US macro tracking site Calculated Risk (1). This Jobs
Report is set up as one of those “bad news is good news” (or vice versa) editions, as if data
shows a hiring downturn it would give the Fed even more room to start cutting rates earlier,
rather than later. The headline numbers will move the market first, but in the same style as last
month when people noticed how poor the secondary figures were later, watch out for any
revisions of November and December jobs data.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v): Next week
As noted above, life got in the way of this weekend’s edition of The IKN Weekly and due to
personal reasons, I’m deferring the second write up on Adventus Mining (AZDN.v) to add some
quantitative numbers to the strategic reasons laid out in IKN765, two weeks ago.
It will happen next week.
Stocks to Follow
Of the 17 stocks on our open list last weekend, seven posted week-over-week gains (FSM,
MARI.to, CTGO, MIRL.cse, ERO.to, PAU.cse, MENE,v), six were losers (MAI.v, EQX, RIO.v,
SOLG.to, NCAU.v, ALDE.v) and four remained unchanged (ADZN.v, PGZ.v, SOMA.v, AR.to).
Despite the positive overall head count, it was a negative week for the personal back pocket as
most of the larger positions were losers, including Top Pick and biggest holding by some
distance, Minera Alamos. The biggest loser was Newcore (NCAU.v down 12.5%).
2

With the removal of three stocks from the list (SOMA, FSM, AR) we’re now down to 14 covered
positions, with 11 owned and three on the Watch List. That’s the lowest for quite a while and
means the cash position is in good shape, ready to deploy in new and better investments. What
could possibly go wrong? Just five of the 14 are in the green, which continues to suck
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.33 57.1% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.40 -1.3% Leverage trade at U$2k/oz Au
Adventus Mining ADZN.v SPEC BUY C$0.285 7-Jan-24 C$0.27 -5.3% may add, permit play
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.325 -60.8% Permit approved, rebounding
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 26-May-23 C$3.19 4.6% New: Quality Cu developer
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$15.72 -15.9% FY24 production, now moving
SolGold SOLG.to hold C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.14 -47.2% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.105 -48.8% Showing signs of life
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.78 8.3% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$20.56 8.6% High quality Cu prod, cheap
Pan Global Cop PGZ.v WATCH C$0.23 31-Dec-23 C$0.205 -10.9% tinycap Cu in Spain
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.095 11.8% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.28 -55.5% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
Fortuna Silver FSM Jan'24 U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.09 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to Jan'24 C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% NT specflip closed on poor Q4
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Fortuna Silver (FSM): POSITION CLOSED. As laid out last week, this trade is now closed
and as a matter of fact, I also managed to get a slightly better out price than last weekend by
waiting a couple of days, also as planned last weekend. Let’s face facts though, a +3.4% win is
little more than UNCH after paying commissions.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): POSITION CLOSED. Also as announced last weekend, the AR trade
is now closed and the small loss taken (because I paid too much to open it).
Soma Gold (SOMA.v): REMOVED FROM WATCH LIST. Our final change from last week
confirmed and in the books, we’re dropping coverage of SOMA like the proverbial ton of bricks
due to the shenanigans around Javier Cordova. It’s quite a thing to have an arrest warrant out
on your CEO, but when the company is willing to aid and abet his hiding from Interpol, the
phrase “corporate governance” take son a whole new meaning. If this stock were more widely
held and/or a larger market cap, they’d have class action lawsuits brought against them by
now. That’s another way of saying it will never have a big enough market cap. Don’t just avoid,
run away now.
Adventus Mining (ADZN.v): ADDED A FEW. With the price remaining firmly under 30c all
week and a new influx of cash into the account, it was too tempting not to pull the trigger. The
3

idea was to have done a lot more on ADZN today, but life got in the way. Expect a close look a
the stock and its attractions in IKN768, next weekend.
Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v): On the Watch List as we
look for a bargain basement entry point, PGZ finally
traded under 20c for the first time this year before
getting its tape painted into the close. I don’t mind
admitting that if 19c shows again and becomes
buyable, it may well tempt me into opening. I like the
combo of location, guaranteed newsflow from the drill
bit and the fact PGZ has all the treasury it needs for this
year (and into 2025)
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): The volume is still razor thin, but there were no impatient
sellers last week and once the early Monday $3.00 shares had been snapped up, MARI stuck
around the new default level of C$3.20 or so. Not quite as cheap as the sub-3 bargains where I
got my partial fill, but be clear that this price is still an excellent bargain for those ready to tuck
away for 2024.
Equinox Gold (EQX): Ross Beaty did his company no favours by talking up EQX and coming
across as an arrogant boor in front of the VRIC audience last week. As for trading, it refused
once again to show the “leverage to gold” we’re looking for from this trade and managed to dip
back under our cost average entry point.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I kind of suspected RIO.v would retrace back to the low-30s once the glee
of its EIAS approval had worn off and the subject of project financing came to the fore, but I
didn’t expect it to happen so quickly. These are cheap shares now, there’s no point in waiting
for the 25c level to come back because this company is now fundamentally very different with
the Chilean green light for Fenix now showing.
It’s all about raising the cash now, method as important as amount. The first piece should be a
confirmation that Wheaton (WPM) is still on board and ready to forward the next tranche of the
original deal (officially lapsed due to time, but surely easy to reinstate). But as well as the debt
package, we’d like to see a strategic come in a take an equity position as the right one in the
right measure would add kudos to this story and set the stock off on its second leg up.
Meanwhile, company Chair Alex Black did a 40 minute Q&A with SmithWeekly Research and
you can listen to that on this YouTube channel (2). There’s no particular new news, there are
recaps and rewordings of things we already knew and I found it useful to listen and confirm
things we’d already been told by the company.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): There are of course
many gold explorecos that have been beaten down
to new lows during this negative sentiment sell-off
in 2024, the difference with this one is…I own some
shares . And as with most of the sold off shares in
question, nothing has changed at NCAU, the story
is the same, it has money to go about its
development business and there hasn’t even been a
NR out in 2024 to date, this is all about sellers
draining away from the sector in general and
without any keen buyers to replace them.
4

The Copper Basket
After four weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 1.58% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.v 7.16 186.824 1550.64 8.30 15.9%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 179.221 698.96 3.90 -5.6%
3 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 342.55 11.60 -1.7%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 297.02 3.19 -7.0%
5 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 200.97 0.87 -37.0%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 158.30 1.45 -17.1%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 132.46 0.78 -12.4%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 175.97 89.74 0.51 -19.0%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 222.86 86.92 0.39 4.0%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 108.87 44.09 0.405 55.8%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 40.23 0.65 9.8%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 33.24 0.52 -10.3%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 23.45 0.135 12.5%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 17.53 0.165 -8.3%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 16.53 0.08 14.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -1.58%
The Copper Basket managed improve its average by 0.57% last week, despite having eight
losers (SLS.to, ASCU.to, ALDE.v, OCO.v, CCCM.v, KDK.v, AE.v, ECU.v) beating the five winners
(NGEX.v, LA.v, MARI.to, BIG.v, QCCU.v) on the headcount, with two stocks remaining
unchanged (FDY.to, COR.v). That’s because most of the moves were small with the only real
outlier being the rebound seen in Hercules Silver (BIG.v up 13.0%), a company that’s going to
have to change its name at some point this year. The second best mover Marimaca (MARI.to up
6.0%) also did well, but that’s hardly a
megamove for the runner’s up spot. Biggest
loser was Element 29 (ECU.v down 8.3%),
which signals that most changes were indeed
modest.
Driving all this was copper, as prices put in a
bit of a spurt midweek and popped back
above the U$3.80/lb line (which seems to be
some sort of key level, as noted on umpteen
previous occasions). That’s fine and makes
your copper bull author happy, but (and
there’s always a but) we continue to be
skeptical about the strength of this move in
the near-term. As noted below, Chinese New
Year is almost upon us and there isn’t much volume being traded. The pop may have been due
to reports of metals merchants in the futures market (also picked up by this desk), the type of
account that takes delivery on contracts or, more commonly, uses them to hedge their real
work, instead of paper traders.
If we broaden the focus and return to the six-
month chart (right), we see how the rebound hasn’t
fully repaired the damage caused at the start of the
year and that price breakdown. So yes, copper up is
better than copper down but I don’t see why we
should trust this as a definitive re-rating yet. Show
me serious traded volume above U$4.00/lb and I’ll
be on-board, so by the same token I can’t see how
5

we suddenly get new volume until China comes back from its New Year festivities and we’re
four weeks away from that.
Our carefully and lovingly curated macro copper news this week could go under the title
“Smelter Wars”, or something like that. First up we got this news out of Reuters early in the
week (3):
Glencore and Trafigura are pushing Asian smelters to accept low spot prices for turning their
mined copper into metal this year, as opposed to industry benchmarks that are much higher,
three sources with knowledge of the matter said.
Historically, the industry has used annual benchmarks for their fees, known as treatment charges
(TCs), for contracts to process concentrate into copper.
But London-listed Glencore and Trafigura want to base TCs on the spot market, where the
expansion of Chinese and global smelting capacity, as well as tight concentrate supplies have
depressed processing charges.
Commodity traders Glencore and Trafigura are offering to pay Asian smelters TCs linked to a
basket of assessments from price reporting agencies including Fastmarkets and SMM for 2024
supply, the sources said.
In other words, the two biggest industrial metals traders in the world see a discrepancy in the
current copper supply chain, with the current crimp in concentrate supply (e.g. Anglo,
production issues, Panama Cobre offline, etc) bumping up against an expanded number of
smelters to feed in China. This has caused TC/RC costs to drop to record lows in recent weeks,
averaging U$40/mt instead of the U$80/mt typicallt paid in 2023. Glencore/Trafi want to
capitalize on the near-term imbalance by spreading current costs out over the year and it’s
reasonable to assume Glencore/Trafi see the same sector as we do; a lack of demand in 1q24
projected to turn into undersupply in the second half of this year. Therefore and in simple
terms, their plan is to strong-arm the Chinese smelters with “You want copper conc now? Okay,
guarantee these low TC/RCs to us all year.” This is underscored with the other wrinkle in the
deal they are offering:
The two trading houses also aim to impose caps on TCs to lock in margins in the event of an
increase in supplies of mined copper that could drive up TCs. Supplies last year were estimated
at around 22 million metric tons, and some analysts have said the market this year could move
into deficit if supply disruptions continued.
A source at a major smelter said unless supply improved after the Lunar New Year in February,
smelters might have to accept the trading houses’ terms.
Both Trafigura and Glencore want to cap TCs in the mid-$60s a ton area, a second smelter
source said, adding that the cap could vary depending on volumes and relationships. The sources
said there was no floor, only proposed caps.
That’s have cake/eat cake from Glencore and Trafigura, they want to adjust lower if spot prices
continue to collapse, but if spot treatment charges move back up they don’t pay more than
U$60/mt all year. Not that the current $40/mt or the desired $60/mt cap compared to the
$80/mt deal struck by big Chilean miner Antofagasta (ANTO.l) late last year, which at the time
was considered a benchmark for others. That was Act One Smelter Wars, the second part came
Friday and is covered in this SPGlobal report (4)
China's group of top copper smelters -- China Smelters Purchase Team -- in a bid to stabilize the
free-falling copper concentrate TC/RC market called for a joint production cut Jan. 26, triggering
mixed market reactions.
The meeting also called for CSPT members to set procurement floor price level at $50/mt and 5
cents/lb for TC and RC, respectively, and not accept side terms such as quotation period and gold
payable changes.
In other words, China’s smelter people want to get together in order to tell Glencore and
Trafigura where they can stick their deal offer. However, the same report throws shade on the
idea because…
Offers still stood in the mid-$20s/mt from trader to smelter but sellers showed no intention to
increase offers by much. "We don't believe that top smelters are really going to cut production
much after the meeting," another trader said.
However, the best course of action for observers such as us is to wait and see, at least for a
couple of weeks:
Due to the wide gap between spot TCs and floor price level, more market participants were
waiting to see how market will develop in the short-term, especially with the Lunar New Year
coming soon.
6

And that sounds right to me. Moving on, back in IKN765 we noted that the standard front end
curve for copper contracts at the LME was in the steepest contango in recent memory. A return
to the same graphic (right) (5) shows the discrepancy has slackened a little and the spread to
the three month contract is down to around U$78/mt (from U$100/mt or so), which is fairly
called “normal contango” territory. However, we’re still a long way from a market ready to call a
supply deficit in the near-term.
We move on to our regular weekly check on world copper inventories, data as always from
Chile’s Cochilco:
 The market remains subdued and volumes modest, despite the price pop we saw in
spot copper last week. Overall stocks dropped by 1,126 metric tonnes (mt) on the week
to close Friday at 223,527mt.
 The Shanghai SHFE stocks did the same as the rest of January, rising a small 2,779mt
to close at 50,532mt. We’re now two weeks away from Chinese New Year (out with the
rabbits, in with the dragons) and once the holiday period is over, we should get the
sharper rise in stocks we get every year (see chart below).
 The LME continues to zig and zag at current levels, this week it was a net loss of
6,525mt to close the week at 151,350 and all but 500 of those tonnes were from its
New Orleans warehouses.
 The Comex rose again, but this time it was a chunkier move of 2,779mt to close at
21,645mt. Still no biggie, but at some point we may need to take this end of the
world’s inventory system into account.
The dedicated SHFE inventories chart shows little change, just one extra dot to the right as we
wait for the post holiday spike.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
7
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 0202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a few of our basket stocks:

Hercules Silver (BIG.v): My first reaction when reading the drill assay NR out last Monday
(6) was that it represented an improvement on its previous result and said as much on the day
when its price dropped The positive impression came from
hole HER-23-26 and its 461m of 0.4% copper, and here
right is one of the visuals from the NR. This hole represents
a step-out to the South West of the original discovery area
and the arrow pointing to increasing grade is important,
because hole 26 is interpreted as still being in the phyllic
zone, i.e. mineralization that normally and in theory wraps
around the central porphyry part of a deposit such as the
one they are targeting here. So to extrapolate that theory,
the company would like to believe it’s on to a very big
system and has not as yet found the guts where the best
grades would normally be found. And of course, the
company would like us to believe the same.
So yes, while the previous January 2nd NR took the steam
out of this big pumpo move and rightly so, last week
reinvigorated this story and went a long way to explaining
why Barrick was keen on coming aboard as a strategic.
Major companies bet on the biggest systems and while
there’s still a long way to go, the evidence to date suggests
that’s what is going on here. There are obvious
disadvantages however, for example the depth at which the
mineralization of Hole 26 starts (339m down hole) means
they’ll be looking for way in with less overburden and if not,
grade will have to improve. It’s still a risk-laden option,
anyone who calls this a “no brainer buy” doesn’t know what
they’re talking about and the 13% added last week means
even more equity to lose if the drill program can’t find what they think is down there, but
equally the eventual move last week was justified by the core’s fundies and the early sellers got
it wrong.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): Another
underwhelming drill assay result from ASCU.to on
Thursday (7), with 321m of 0.2% Cu in a new zone
that will also be outside the upcoming PFS pit shell.
That makes three assay NRs in January alone (Jan
10th, 16th and 25th) and the rhythm used by a company
priming the market for a milestone NR so it was
interesting to see the stock improve a couple of
pennies on the news (though finishing the week 2c
down).
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): Unchanged on the week,
but FDY is now at lows not seen since 2022 and just
after its revamp. The chart right shows the issue, FDU
is out of fashion and failing to do anywhere near the
volume we saw at this time last year (when I
personally owned some shares, hardly a coincidence).
8

The Producer Basket
After 4 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 8.62% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 39.43 34.21 -17.3%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1761.54 27.36 15.53 -14.2%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 496.54 24.52 49.38 -10.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 20.79 108.19 -2.4%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 5.06 13.89 -14.9%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 2.92 12.30 -2.7%
7 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 2.47 12.20 -5.9%
8 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 2.46 3.99 -17.0%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.18 6.44 0.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 0.85 5.72 -1.9%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -8.62%
The six winners (AEM, FNV, PAAS, LUGDF, DPMLF, WDOFF) and four losers (NEM, GOLD, HL,
EGO) resulted in a 0.7% improvement for the basket average, a move that matched the GDX
almost to the hundredth. Most of the moves were small in either direction, the only real outlier
being Lundin Gold (LUGDF up 13.0%).
Now we have enough of a sample, we’ll start the 2024 tracking charts next week.
Newmont (NEM): The NEM-hate continues, as even Barrick (GOLD) caught a bit of a break
with the GDX rebound on Thursday/Friday, but the selling didn’t stop and at this juncture, I’m
honestly not sure what’s driving this antipathy toward the world’s #1 by market cap (for how
long?). This six month chart shows a couple of key points in the company’s recent history,
running NEM against the benchmark GDX.
The first obvious bifurcation point was mid-October and if you want to argue the cause, there
are the NEM approval vote to take over Newcrest (which would give the insto level dissenters
reason to leave), or if you prefer, the end of the Peñasquito strike in Mexico when NEM gave
the striking unions nearly all their demands (after refusing to for a couple of months). The
second dip came as the Newcrest merger finalized (same reasons) though to its credit, NEM
clawed back most of its disadvantage against GDX once the dust had settled. But this time it’s a
tougher call as to the reason, it could be a general abandonment of the gold producer sector
and NEM suffering more than most (it is the only S&P500 goldie) or it could be the bad vibes
caused by the weak Barrick 4q23 production numbers (NEM doesn’t pre-announce production,
we have to wait until Feb 22nd). But whatever it is, the market leading precious metals stock
has been a rotten ride recently and that’s not just bad for Tom Palmer, it’s also bad for the
whole sector as it casts a shadow over the industry.
9

Lundin Gold (LUGDF): An impressive run against the grain last week, as the small pop in
GDX was enough to trigger significant buying on raised volumes in LUGDF/LUG.to (we use the
main Canadian ticker here below left to show the volume improvement). Also notably, that
chart pattern happened on no news so it may pay to watch the wires tomorrow Monday
morning, as Lundin stocks do exhibit a tendency of “anticipatory purchases” (let’s say
diplomatically).
Then again, how long is a piece of string? Last week may have simply been a case of LUG
playing catch-up. Widen the focus and we see that it’s under-performed GDX since perhaps
mid-November and the slightly light Q4 production total aside, there’s no real reason for that.
The TinyCaps List
After 4 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 10.30% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 221.5 31.01 0.14 115.4%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 67.27 8.07 0.12 -11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 28.88 0.27 58.8%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 25.52 0.17 -5.6%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 6.20 0.07 -30.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 5.00 0.07 -6.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 9.27 0.13 0.0%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 35.14 0.72 -4.0%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 219.21 18.63 0.085 -5.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 13.02 0.11 -8.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 10.30%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
10

The basket average 1.57% on the week, but the variances were wild compared to that modest
overall move. There were four winners among our ten (BAY.v, ARIC.v, STS.v, SURG.v) including
big moves in Aston Bay (BAY.v up 27.3%) and Awalé (ARIC.v up 14.3%), two unchanged
stocks (EDG.v, PA.v) and four losers (DMX.v, KLDC.v, LMS.v, VAU.v) including the big drop in
Kirkland LDC (KLDC.v down 22.2%) with District Metals (DMX.v down 10.0%) as wingman). So
the big moves largely cancelled each other out but I’m certainly not complaining; the more
volatile and active this basket of stocks, the better it will represent what goes on down this
tinycap end of the market.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): Monday saw SURG report (8) its latest assay from its now wholly-
owned Berg project in BC Canada, with hole BRG23-244
cutting 548m of 0.36% CuEq, with the main event in
that CuEq the 0.28% copper , then small amounts for
Mo, Ag, and Au. The debate among peers is whether
those credit metals are too low grading to ever be truly
payable and I for one doubt they’re worth much, so
going 0.28% Cu seems smarter. So that grade is low
but 1) thanks to low energy costs in BC, it can still be
mined profitably and 2) the mineralization starts very
close to surface, cutting down on theoretical pre-strip,
capex and potentially even opex.
Overall, this long intercept of low grading porphyry is
what we’ve become used to at Berg and while the stock improved a little on the week, there
was no sudden rush to buy in as the six-month chart (right) shows.
Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v): The good Australian vibes continued last week and BAY.v ran
on the coattails of WA1 in Australia as trader sentiment ran very positively, but also because on
Thursday BAY.v announced a shake-up in its board of directors (9). Mike Dufresne and Ian
MacPherson (Dufresne will remain to sign off as QP on NRs), in come Jeff Wilson, Gary
O’Connor and Mark Pryor. I know little about Pryor away
from the brief biographies read online. Gary O’Connor
tried and failed at Moneta (ME.to) recently and “was
resigned”. Jeff Wilson is a “highly experienced at
Canadian capital markets” and while he comes with good
references from people I like, I personally recognize him
as just another Canadian lifestyler who milks the market
from his heads-I-win-tails-You-Lose dealings at
companies like Peruvian Metals and Precipitate Gold. One
of the more obvious connections here is newsletter writer
Eric Coffin, who has had ulterior and personal motives to
pump both BAY and PRG to his unsuspecting audience
for many years. What this board change tells me is that
BAY is going to become an aggressive pump in 2024, despite the way Storm has promised and
failed to deliver on many previous occasions. Grade is one thing and we know it’s easy to drill a
splashy hole there, what Storm has failed to achieve to date is scale (and to a lesser extent
continuity). Those of you who enjoy the cut and thrust of a heavily promo’d penny stock should
put BAY on your radar. Me? I’ll watch and not touch, the people behind this stock cannot be
trusted further than they can be thrown.
Kirkland Lake Discovery Corp (KLDC.v): A salutary
reminder of what a thin trades can do to the market
value of a tinycap. Entering Friday, KLDC.v was priced at
10c and therefore ran a market cap of just under
C$8.9m. Then in one trade of 38,000 shares, sold for the
princely sum of C$2,280, over three and a half million
dollars was wiped from its market cap. One more trade
11

of around 13,000 shares late in the day (C$910) pulled the stock back to 7c and the price we
see this weekend.
It’s up to you to decide who is in the right and who’s in the wrong: The seller at 6c? The
market for pricing KLDC at C$8.9m? The market later on for pricing it at C$5.3m? None of the
above? What we do know for sure is that down at these bottom fish levels, penny stocks that
trade by appointment cannot be accurately valued on the price of their equity at any given
moment.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Deferred
Life got in the way.
Market Watching
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) redux
Though we sold the position just a few days ago, we still ran “Amerigo Resources (ARG.to)
4q23 production” last weekend in IKN766 and found the company had returned and in-line
quarter, as well as guiding much as expected for 2024. However and as this ten-day chart
shows, ARG under-performed compared to its peers (COPX proxy) and the continuous copper
contract (HG00) last week:
While freely admitting that five or ten days of trading on spotty volume is nobody’s idea of a
comprehensive sample size, the failure of ARG to follow up the metal or COPX is one of the
reasons I’ve given up on this trade. Be clear, ARG is an excellent company and particularly well-
run, but it’s always going to be one of the more conservative choices in the copper space. That
suited me in the previous cycle but now I prefer to put less cash in more volatile stocks, such as
the recent purchase of Marimaca (MARO.to) and Adventus (ADZN.v), or the trade I’m tracking
in Pan Global (PGZ.v) (or even QC Copper (QCCU.v)).
I’m going to keep ARG firmly on my radar, as there’s always the chance it gets beaten down on
overselling and if so, its relative security then plays for the stock and would make its rebound
far more likely. It’s also a good stock to cover as it provides an excellent benchmark for the
management teams of other stocks.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) 4q23 production
On Tuesday January 23rd one of the best silver plays out there and a stock we’ve watched quite
closely in the last couple of quarters as a potential trade on the Devil’s Own Metal, Eric Fier’s
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to), announced its 4q23 production numbers (10) and..
12

…as a result the stock took a bit of a hit against benchmarks such as the main silver producers’
ETF (SIL) or silver bullion (SLV proxy). Let’s have a look and try to work out why:
First up, the amount of ore mined/milled (right) was lower SILV: Ore mined/milled
than expected as we read a non-specific reason for that in
the NR, “…some unplanned downtime at the processing
plant in Q4”. In other words, something broke and then
they fixed it. It is notable that the shortfall compared to
Q3 for mined ore was 5,200mt, but milled ore 10,000mt
(they add stockpile to the mix) so the bottleneck was
clearly at the plant. As for average grades, they came in at
410 g/t silver and 4.28 g/t gold, slightly lower than Q3 but
well within margins of error and normal mining
variances…no issues.
So put those together along with stated recoveries (always good, see the NR for those) and we
get silver production of 1.34Moz and gold production of 14,100oz.
From those, silver sales as reported by SILV were slightly lower at 1.27Moz, but gold sales were
usefully higher at 16,100oz as the company moved inventory left unsold as at end Q3. We can
13
00056
000401
00636
004401
00447
009701
00838
005411
00687
005401
mt
140000 Ore mined
120000 Ore milled
100000
80000
60000 40000
20000
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
SILV: Silver head grade (g/t)
283 914 944 314 014
SILV: Gold head grade (g/t)
550
500
450
400
350
300
250 200
150
100
50
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
76.3 60.4 48.4 53.4 82.4
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
SILV: Silver production & sales, per qtr
41.0
1
63.1 54.1 35.1 72.1
Moz Ag SILV: Gold production & sales, per qtr
1.8
1.6 prod
1.4 sales
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
00411 00241 00431 00541 00161
Oz Au
20000
18000 prod
16000 sales
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings

get an accurate revenues estimate from all this too, as SILV usefully includes average received
prices for its wares in its production report, so do the math and this comes out:
SILV: Calculated revenues by metal, per qtr
14
66.12
02
86.62
82.13
86.62
23.53
82
28.53
38.13
23.92
U$m
70
60 Au calc revs
Ag calc revs
50
40
30
20
10
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings, IKN calcs
With gold sales of U$31.83m and silver sales of U$29.32m for 4q23, the quarter marked the
first time SILV has derived more top line revenues from gold than from silver. Up to you to
decide whether that’s good or bad. Also FWIW, the overall “calculated revenues” numbers for
previous quarters comes very close to the reality of reported top line revenues, so we can be
confident SILV reports around U$61.15m in sales in 4q23 when it files its financials on March
7th. That top line total compares as seen below left to the other quarters of 2023, slightly lighter
but no real biggie. We also expect costs to drop compared to Q3, as there will be no (non cash)
inventory adjustment this time around. The resulting forecast of U$38.2m in Mine Operating
Income puts the quarter very much in-line with the previous two, as seen. That projects net
profits very close to Q3 and an EPS of just over 20c, not bad for a U$5.62 stock and a forward
PE of under 7X is the company can keep it up.
SILV: Quarterly Earnings overview
As for the balance sheet, just one chart to measure the pulse and we fully expect working
capital (right) to show incremental growth, with a
best guess of U$130m at 2023 YE (though have to
say, cash flow is more important than the exact
amount of cash it squirrels in treasury at this point.
Summing up the SILV 4q23: Production was slightly
on the low side and that may be the reason we saw
the selling last week, but financially we expect the
quarter to come in smack in-line with expectations,
thanks to lower costs than Q3.
That’s the backward look, now to consider what we
can expect in 2024. SILV didn’t provide any guidance last week, but it did announce that it had
agreed terms and hired a mining contractor for the next five years, We quote:
“Early in Q1, 2024 the selection process and negotiations were finalized and beginning
in February 2024, a subsidiary of Dumas Contracting Ltd (“Dumas”) will begin
mobilizing to Las Chispas under a five year service contract covering all underground
development and production activities.”
7.2 8.0 9.1 8.04 3.41 5.62
0.85
4.22 6.53
0.26
7.32 3.83
8.36
4.62 5.73
2.16
0.32 2.83
U$m SILV: EPS, per qtr
80
revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
70
60
50
40
30
20 10
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23est
source: company filings
8.8- 1.2-
8.4
9.5- 0.6- 2.2-
2.71 3.21 5.81 0.61 5.02 6.02
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 -10
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs
SILV: Working Capital per qtr
68.621
96.222
33.391 43.671 55.971 26.061 17.641
70.921 198.47 464.17 553.69 33.811 031 841
240
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80 60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

Dumas (say “dumah”, not “dumbass”) is an arm of STRACON and they are serious miners. As is
the length of this contract, five years. All that indicates the terms agreed upon are likely to be
very close to those outlined in the 2023 technical report update so for an idea of what to expect
from SILV in 2024, look no further than that document and on page 424, this visual helps our
cause:
As the second half of 2023 hit those posited numbers fairly closely, it’s fair to expect the
guidelines to continue and that means 10m oz AgEq for 2024, with the revenue split 45% gold
to 55% silver at base case prices of U$23/oz silver and U$1,800/oz gold. In other words, SILV
is set to deliver the same type of consistent quarter we got from Las Chispas in the second half
of last year. As for cash flows and profitability, a few pages later in the 43-101 comes the
economic analysis and we encourage readers to do what we did and have a good read, but
here’s one visual to sum up the situation quickly and reasonably:
In the first nine months of 2023 SILV ran post-tax free cash flow (FCF) of around U$73.5m, so
its likely to beat the U$90m once 4q23 is added (we find out on March 7th). Equally, as its
forward guidance is based on the U$23/oz silver and U$1,800/oz gold noted above, we’re likely
to get an improvement on the 2024 estimated FCF. If we plug in current spot prices (silver
same, gold nicely above) there’s an improvement of around 10%, or a ballpark figure of U$70m
and within margins of error (and as long as costs don’t creep up further than the projected
U$13.48/oz AgEq), the better received prices will compensate for the high cost schedule and
should deliver the same type of bottom line profit we saw in the last two quarters. In other
words, SILV is going to make very good coin on its mine in 2024 as long as the operation runs
smoothly. The question now is how much of this is already discounted by the market
Well-run operation? Yes.
One of the best companies in the silver space? Absolutely
Strongly profitable? You bet
Doe the market know this already? Yes.
What to make of this? Here are two views, followed by a bottom line call:
 Glass half empty: This is a U$820m market cap and over double the estimated book value
(IKN-estimated U$375m as at 4q23), based on a single mine in Mexico even after its recent
price drop. That’s a lot of equity and it only takes one thing to go wrong for guidance and
forecasts to drop (as seen by that minor hiccup in Q4). The market knows SILV is profitable
and runs strong margins, it expects profits form this company (unlike so many other silver
producers).
15

 Glass half full: the recent share price drop suggests that the market doesn’t think SILV will
be as profitable as before, potentially reading too much into a one-time minor stoppage that
took the shine off Q4 numbers. If we go with the 43-101 Technical Report mine plan (as I’m
sure Dumas and SILV did in their negotiations), SILV is set to become a consistent financial
performer and if it can spit out 20c EPS quarters with regularity, it will surely get re-rated
from the current 7X multiple. We know silver stocks get priced higher than this (sometimes
a lot higher).
Discussion: If you like silver going forward, this is a great way to play the metal as unlike the
vast majority of silver play, be they explorecos, developers or producers, it’s going to make
good profits in the year to come at U$23/oz silver and $2k/oz gold. That latter part is important
too, as the gold component adding ballast to combat the volatility of silver, so if SILV runs 20c
quarters for much longer (as we believe it can) it’s no stretch of the imagination to see the
stock at a 10X forward PE soon, as silver stocks tend to run higher PEs than their gold
counterparts. That would put a price target of around U$8.20 and almost 46% higher than this
weekend. Nice theory, but there are still problems with this scenario:
 I cannot get comfortable with silver.
That’s just me, you know that.
 We’re six weeks away from the YE
financials and 2024 guidance
 The market may well need to see Q1
production before showing belief in SILV
 As the 12 month price chart shows
(right), even in the rally moments SILV
hasn’t threatened the U$8 line recently
With silver looking asthenic in recent trading, I
see no reason to rush in even at this newly
discounted price. However, the value investor in
me cannot help but recognize this is a cheap
price if SILV can deliver on its 2024 plan, because the generalist world in which it now moves
will appreciate bottom line financial results more than the more insular mining community that
is always after incremental production growth.
Bottom Line: As from next weekend SilverCrest will be on the IKN Weekly Watch List. I
cannot justify buying a silver stock at the moment, even one that’s producing at a healthy profit
and getting half its revenue from gold. However, there’s every reason to believe SILV’s price
action will be driven by its financial results in 2024 rather than its production numbers that are
set to be flat and a continuation of what we’ve seen in the previous two (three?) quarters.
If I get to write the script, SILV flat lines in this current U$5.50 to U$6.00 range from now to its
earnings report in March, then begins to rally and momentum increases as 1q24 confirms the
regularity of its production this year. The market begins to look upon SILV as a veritable cash
cow and speculation begins on which company might take it out (First Majestic has crippled
itself and is probably not in the right condition to move on SILV any longer, but it’s the right
size for Pan American (PAAS) and they need a real flagship silver operation, that’s for sure).
Then if silver puts in a run (and that’s always possible with the Jekyll & Hyde metal) there’s all
sorts of upside left in this stock and my U$8.20 target comes into play.
Okay, you’re right, I don’t get to write the script. Which is why SILV needs to go on the Watch
List as from now, in order to consider its moves compared to silver the metal and spot any
potential trade windows, e.g. in the days before what I believe will be a positive catalyst 4q23
financial report and guidance, early March. There’s a world of disappointing silver developer
plays and even the top drawer ones such as our previously held AbraSilver (ABRA.v), may look
great on paper but have traded horribly in recent times. Equally, there are too many mediocre
or plain awful silver producers to name (let’s go with Guanajuato Silver GSVR.v) and First
Majestic (FR.to) (AG) as prime examples from both ends of the market cap spectrum) but to its
16

credit, SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) both looks and acts the way a serious business should. The 12
month chart above also shows the moment in late July/early August last year when the updated
Technical Report whacked the share price hard. The company took flak for that, but in fact it
was both understandable (going off more detailed information once underground and looking at
the entire face of the veins, instead of merely core assays) and sensible (with the info at hand,
run trade-offs to decide the best way to mine what they really had). It recovered, added back
all the loss and more so it’s notable to see the way it’s sold off in the current downturn for silver
sentiment, back at this apparent median U$5.50 line. If I’m ever going to buy another silver
stock it’s going to have to be quality rather than speculative, SILV fits the bill and the remaining
question is what the underlying metal might do. For the time being I’m certainly more
comfortable without any silver exposure, but we all know the metal’s volatility can offer up
excellent near-term gains if the timing and vehicle are right. SILV is now on the Watch List, as I
believe the market is mis-pricing it on its Q4 numbers.
Conclusion
IKN767 is done, we end with bullet points:
 A shorter than planned edition, I hope the two people who signed up don’t throw their
hands up in disgust. Well, in fact I hope none of you do, but would at least understand.
 Though a little on the large side for this publication and behest to the most fickle of
metals, SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) is now an active target because it’s effectively one
asset and profitable producers that frame as buyout candidates are the place to be in
2024. At least I think so. Watch List as from next week, there may be a trade here
going into March.
 I remain bullish over the medium and long term on copper. I see no reason to expect it
to run just yet, however. I’ll leave it to others to call bull on the five or six false dawns
and then boast how they got it right when the seventh breaks out.
 Hercules Silver (BIG.v) got added to the Copper Basket this year due to the hype
surrounding the copper hits at Hercules late last year, as well as a potential for the
story to fizzle out. However, it may turn out to have more legs than I expected and last
week’s assay result was a surprise. Nothing wrong with changing one’s mind if evidence
demands it.
 We’ll do some real work on Adventus Mining (AZDN.v) next weekend, but lazy or not
about writing it up I’m happy about having got more shares at under 30c.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/01/schedule-for-week-of-january-28-2024.html
(2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UnnVYoZxZs
(3) https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-01-19/glencore-trafigura-target-spot-prices-mined-copper-sales-sources-
say?
17

(4) https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/012624-chinas-top-copper-
smelters-call-for-production-cut-to-stabilize-market?s=03
(5) https://www.lme.com/en/metals/non-ferrous/lme-copper#Price+graphs
(6) https://herculessilver.com/hercules-silver-drills-100-meters-of-0-76-cu-113-ppm-mo-within-461-meters-of-0-4-cu-74-
ppm-mo/
(7) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-mainspring-drilling-intersects-near-surface-
mineralization-intersects-1-053-ft-321-m-of-0.20-total-copper-from/
(8) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-intersects-548-metres-grading-0.36-cueq-including-30-metres-
grading-0.61-cueq-at-the-berg-deposit-1/
(9) https://astonbayholdings.com/news/aston-bay-announces-board-changes/
(10) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/2023/index.php?content_id=526
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
18

New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
19

Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
20

INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
21