IKN #766Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 766, January 21st 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Very brief intro.
Fundamental Analysis: Two sales decisions, Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF) 4q23
production, Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) 4q23 production and 2024 guidance.
Stocks to Follow: Marimaca Copper Corp (MARI.to), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Fortuna
Silver (FSM), Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Soma Gold (SOMA.v), Adventus Mining (ADZN.v),
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Solaris
Resources (SLS.to): QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): American Eagle (AE.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF),
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to). Pan American Silver (PAAS).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, District Metals (DMX.v), Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v), Surge
Copper (SURG.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Volatile but buyable (if you have the stomach), Argentina: Milei’s
opening gambits.
Market Watching: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q23 production.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
As the main Fundies section makes plain today, I am a seller of Fortuna Silver (FSM) and
Argoanut Gold (AR.to) on the back of their disappointing NRs last week. I’m also removing
Soma Gold (SOMA.v) from the Watch List of potential trades, see the Stocks to Follow notes for
that. However and on a slightly brighter note, if there’s still cheap shares of Adventus (ADZN.v)
available in the week ahead I plan to add a few and bolster this position as we enter the time
period when the EIA permit might appear. That’s the trade heads-up done.
In today’s edition
 Today’s main Fundies section explains why I’m throwing in the towel on two near-term
trades, Argonaut (AR.to) and Fortuna (FSM), though with prices as they are I should be
able to get out unscathed.
 Plenty of other production numbers on show today with The Producer Basket covering
the mixed bag of news from the large negatives (Barrick), the smaller positives
(Wesdome, Eldorado) and the slightly hard done by Pan American (PAAS). Lots of
charts
 Today’s Regional Politics delivers the op-ed type overviews (with a slant toward mining
whenever possible promised on Ecuador and Argentina, two countries undergoing
plenty of seismic changes at the moment. The Argentina note in particular is an
exercise in trying to be as succinct as possible and failing, but there are just so many
moving parts and nuances to consider.
Very brief intro
No big intro today, plenty going on below and the overall playing field for gold and metals
stocks really didn’t change that much last week. The only passing comment I’d make is on the
1

new speculation that the Fed won’t cut rates in 2024, or at least not cut them as much and
later in the year. That’s hogwash, expect them to start shaving quarter points off in March, or
May at the very outside.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Two sales decisions
Today’s main fundies section is a bit of a bummer, that’s advanced warning on write ups on
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF) two stocks I recently bought
as near-term trades and predicated on similar reasons:
 Bullishness on the price of gold (i.e. would stick above U$2,000/oz)
 Likelihood of good Q4 production numbers from the companies
 Upbeat guidance for 2024 that would help push the stock prices higher
 Then a quick sale, most likely in this month of January and for a healthy profit
 And what could possibly go wrong?
What indeed. Last week both FSM and AR.to reported their 4q23 production numbers, with the
former adding in 2024 guidance and the latter promising to provide its 2024 outlook soon. The
news and the reaction duly scuppered our grand plans and after due deliberation, I’ve decided
to close both trades and sell the positions. That will happen in the days to come but first we go
over the reasons why, starting with the easier decision of the two:
Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF) 4q23 production
This is the easier call of the two today. Our active interest in Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF) in
this iteration began in IKN757 dated November 19th and the main fundies note “Argonaut Gold
(AR.to) (ARNGF) and an impending trade set-up”, which took the latest information gleaned
from the company via its 3q23 financials results and made its pitch. Then four weeks later in
IKN761 dated December 17th 2023, we ran the main fundies note “Buying Argonaut Gold
(AR.to) (ARNGF)” and your author duly opened the speculative near-term trade, predicated on
expectations of a good Q4 production and positive vibes from the key Magino mine start-up as
well as a continuation of the revival of its Florida Canyon mine. Therefore last week’s NR (1)
was a key point in this trade and was likely to decide whether this trade would be a buy/add,
hold or sell.
And yes it’s a sell, now it’s time for the why: When providing outlook during its 3q23 financials
report on November 14th, AR told us that it “…remains on track to achieve the low end of
consolidated production guidance for 2023.” That allowed us to model reasonable Q4
production numbers from its operations, along with the soft guidance and signals from other
news releases that framed the early production from its key Magino mine as it ramps up to full
speed. Here’s how we put it in IKN757:
“As for Q4, with the company affirming its production guidance for the year
and Magino now in commercial production, we estimate a total of 70,000 oz
for 4q23, the type of number that will attract plaudits from the market…”
That production forecast breakdown by mine:
 Magino: 30,000 oz
 Florida Canyon: 20,000 oz
 San Augustin: 10,000 oz
 La Colorada: 7,000 oz
 El Castillo: 3,000 oz
Cut to last week and the fun began when AR announced “….2023 consolidated annual
production was 197,509 GEOs, 1% less than the Company’s annual guidance of 200 to 230
thousand GEOs”, so if we assume production = sales (they are always very close to each other
at this company) the tracking chart adds 4q23 in this way:
2

AR.to: GEO sales, per qtr
3
45411
21122
3518
4111
13602 12614 10473 11066 13569 11463 6433 11421 7358 5502
28181 43502 64091 64781 53191
18031
80481
08121 02531
18324
14153 15749 13521 13799 7861 7634
7224
8796 5200 5820
03921
45931
99151 52621 15301 31041
55511
29041
24321 41781
55412
08771
10252
10327 19861
75000
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000 35000 16256
30000
25000 20000
15000
10000
5000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
source: company filings
zo
OEG
Florida Canyon
La Colorada
San Augustin
El Castillo
Magino
The 61,523 oz GEO may have been a 14% increase over 3q23 as advertised in the NR last
week, but it was a long way off our fairly reasonable assumptions with the shortfall mostly
about the numbers from Magino (22,112 oz) and Florida Canyon (17,780 oz). And as 2q21
shows, it’s not even a modern day record for the company.
We then got a short line of financial information from the company, “Cash and cash equivalents
totaled $83.8 million at year end with $218 million outstanding under the Company’s term loan
facilities.” That looks like this:
AR.to: Cash treasury per qtr
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
We have to wait for the YE financials that come out in March for the numbers, but if we take
into account the U$28m received from the sale of another 1% NSR to Franco-Nevada and the
C$85m in gross proceeds from its bought deal (est U$64m) it means AR added around U$92m
to its financial structure in the period but only boosted its cash position by U$39m. Then comes
the liabilities side and while the term loan information is only half the story (nothing on the
revolver that was at U$29m at end 3q23), it does suggest our previous model is in the ballpark
and once that’s plugged in, we get this as our new working capital forecast:
AR.to: Working Capital per qtr
740.66
49.591
10.662 53.972 81.642
41.302
15.671
6.041
597.36
59.411
545.78
935.94 755.75
988.6-
43
300
275
250
225 200
175
150 125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source company filings
This begs the question as to whether U$34m in liquidity is enough for a multi-mine company
with a major project to finish and get to positive free cash flow and frankly, I don’t think so.
The lower revenues than expected (we had 70k oz producing a top line of U$137m, that’s now

down to U$120m) and the implication from the cash draw that AR is still running at an
operating and net loss also hiked our cost expectations for the quarter and while gross cash
flow of U$27m is useful, mine site profit of U$10m is a drop in the ocean compared to what it
and Magino needs to throw off in order to maintain debt servicing in 2024.
AR.to: Operations overview
4
8.501 987.66 14.111 349.47 752.57 932.65 778.59 223.08 769.86 414.25 111.38 806.75 8.401 102.77
021
39
revenues
$m prod costs
160 dd&a/inventory adjust
140 gross profit
120
100
80
60 40
20
0
-20
-40 Source: company filings
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23est
As for 2024 guidance, AR is holding back on that until February 26 and a separate NR. That’s
okay but not great, however there were enough clues in the NR last week to point to a gradual
ramp up at Magino to true profitability (no matter that Magino declared commercial production
in November, that seems to count for little here). Please check the NR at your own leisure for
references to “1H24” increases rather than Q1 improvements etc, but for me the most obvious
yellow flag was this bullet point on the Progress At Magino list:
“An updated NI 43-101 technical report for the Magino Mine including the updated
Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources and mill optimization and expansion
opportunities is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2024.”
If AR is doing an updated 43-101 technical report, it’s not going to ramp to full speed until that
report is done and the optimization trade-offs are understood. That means 1q24 is set to be
another spinning the wheels quarter and, with
AR.to: Shares Out
the cash position sub-optimal again, it points to
a company that will need “just one more hit”
from the market’s financiers in true drug addict
style. Let us not forget what has happened to
the share count at this company since its woes
at Magino were made public (right), as that is
not the chart of a company reticent to go back
to market and raise more capital if required.
Bottom line: Our near-term trade on Argonaut
Gold (AR.to) was largely base don the
expectations of an improved quarter of
production in Q4 as it ramped Magino into profitability. What we got last week was a
disappointment and production numbers that fell short of what were reasonable though
perhaps slightly optimistic guesstimates on our part. This trade was always set up as a near-
term opportunity and between a mediocre Q4 that didn’t meet our forecast and the current
depressed market for gold stocks and ideas, it’s not going to make money. Back when calling
buy in IKN761, AR was a C$0.395 stock and after buying, I suspected I’d paid too much at 42c
(and said as much). Assuming I can get out at this weekend’s price, I’m going to take a small
loss on this but It’s not too bad, but sell I will
as I don’t think AR is going to impress in Q1,
either in its eventual guidance for the year to
come, nor in its YE financials when known.
There’s also the distinct possibility we’ll see
more share dilution via yet another round of
placement financing and that would do the
stock for sure. I’m selling and move on with
only a little damage done to the back pocket.
05.971 92.081 17.081
27.092 67.492 00.013 46.013 91.113 91.113 37.223 58.233 58.667 81.838 48.838 64.468
05.468
91.8701
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600 500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) 4q23 production and 2024 guidance
This was the more difficult of the two calls today. In “Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) flags its
financials” last week, we took clues from its announcement that it had paid back another
U$41m of its debt and a couple of other financial parameters and made some reasonable
estimates of its current balance sheet status. We also noted that FSM was due to drop its 4q23
production numbers at any time and sure enough, we got the NR with Q4 production as well as
guidance for 2024 on Thursday, January 18th (2). Here’s how the share price reacted:
Ouch. Despite the positive reaction generated by the news of the week before, FSM was
deemed to have disappointed the market and its share price was whacked hard. If we focus on
the five day chart (right) and run FSM against GDXJ (to reduce the influence of
Barrick/Newmont last week, see Producer Basket below), the extent of the damage is clear. So
what went wrong? Two main issues…
 San José production and guidance
 Consolidated 2024 guidance and costs
…and we consider them both. As far as Q4 went, our
prediction of a strong quarter was on the biutton.
Ignoring the Zinc and Lead production from Caylloma
for the purposes of brevity today and focusing on the
main payable gold, as well as taking into account silver.
First the main game gold and here are the five mines, with our estimates and the result:
 Séguéla: Estimate 40,000 oz // Result 43,096 oz // Verdict BEAT
 Lindero: Estimate 29,300 oz // Result 29,591 // Verdict IN LINE GOOD QTR
 Yaramoko: Estimate 28,500 oz // Result 28,235 oz // Verdict IN LINE
 San José: Estimate 9,000 oz // Result 6,345 // Verdict MISS
 Caylloma: Estimate 100 oz // Result 109 oz // Verdict IN LINE
Therefore total gold production for 4q23 of 107,376, better than our already upwardly adjusted
forecast. On most mines we were close, with the shortfall from San José compensated by the
excellent return from the new star of the FSM show, Séguéla. Yaramoko’s result was a pleasant
confirmation that it was back as a viable mine and our guess on Lindero was pleasingly close.
FSM: Consolidated gold production by qtr
120000
110000 100000
90000
43096
80000 31498
70000 4023
60000
50000 28235 24553 27130 26190 26437 29002 34036 28235 40000
30000
20000 30068 29016 30032 29301 25258 25456 20933 29591
10000
0 8239 8295 9091 8499 8231 5778 8205 6345
5
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Oz Au FSM Consolidated silver sales, by qtr
2200000
San Jose Lindero 2000000
Yaramoko Séguéla 1800000
Caylloma 1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000 800000
600000
400000
200000
0
source: FSM data
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Oz Ag Caylloma
San José
source: FSM data

As for silver (above right), here are the component results:
 San José: Estimate 1.55 Moz // Result 1.024 Moz // Verdict MISS
 Caylloma: Estimate 300 Koz // Result 330 Koz // Verdict IN LINE
That’s not so great and the issue was San José, which was the centerpiece of bad news last
week so here’s a large chunk of copypaster from the NR, as their words on this are better than
mine:
San Jose Mine, Mexico
Cost increments lead to exhaustion of reserves by year end 2024
At the San Jose Mine, the Company plans to process 0.90 million tonnes of ore averaging 142 g/t
Ag and 0.9 g/t Au. Silver and gold production reflect the declining grade profile of the tail end of
the Mineral Reserves.
The updated mine plan for 2024 is scheduled to exhaust Mineral Reserves by the end of 2024,
compared to mid-2025 as previously planned. Over the past 12 months, the operation has
experienced significant cost increments, of which the main drivers are:
 Mexican Peso appreciation; representing approximately 35 percent of cost increment.
 Higher contractor costs for transportation, distribution, shotcrete, maintenance, and
mining services; representing approximately 16 percent of cost increment.
 Higher labor costs and new labor reform mandates, which took effect on January 1,
2024; representing approximately 21 percent of cost increment.
 Change from owner’s mining fleet to contractor for mine development; representing
approximately 6 percent of cost increment.
 Higher costs in fuel, energy, materials, and consumables related to 2023 inflation;
representing approximately 5 percent of cost increment.
As a result of the cost increments described above, the mine plan has been reduced by
approximately six months, leading to an anticipated closure in late 2024 from the previous
estimation of closure in mid-2025. The Company has assigned a dedicated team to review and
update a multiyear progressive mine closure and monitoring plan with a current budget of
approximately $27 million, which will begin its implementation during 2024. Multiple
considerations are being included such as closure-related technical studies and designs,
remediation of affected areas, decommissioning and removal of infrastructure, landform
reshaping, revegetation, and value-added activities for the communities associated with
progressive closure, repurposing, and where appropriate, long-term monitoring and maintenance,
whilst adhering to strict compliance with mine closure governmental regulations and high
international standards.
The Company is engaged in an intensive exploration program to delineate the newly discovered
Yessi vein.
In the vernacular, that sucks. The tacit understanding was that FSM would be able to outline
new resources by now, so seeing them admit failure on that in public and also accelerating the
depletion of current resources was a large bucket of cold water on 2024 and 2025 estimate.
The cost increases are another issue and overall, this was the biggest hit taken by FSM.
However, it wasn’t the only one as the guidance charts show. First gold (below left) Our
previous estimate for 2024 had been 395,500oz and based on the sharp improvements seen at
Yaramoko and Lindero, as well as the new star turn Séguéla. In fact, the guidance mids points
for all mines except Yaramoko were substantially lower than the house expectations the the
mid-point total is now 364,500 oz gold. That may turn out to be a case of FSM under-promising
and over-delivering later, but it did the share price zero favours last week and at a time when it
needed all the help it could get.
Oz Au FSM: Consolidated gold production, annual + forecasts Oz Ag FSM: Consolidated silver sales + forecasts Caylloma
400000 10 San José
9
350000 Caylloma
8
Séguéla
300000 Yaramoko 7
250000 Lindero 6
San Jose
200000 5
4
150000
3
100000
2
50000 1
0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
source: FSM data, IKN calcs and ests for FY24 source: FSM data, IKN calcs and ests for FY24
6

Now silver (above right) and if anything, this was even worse and the 4.35m oz Ag total for this
year is 1.25 down on our previous estimates, again largely due to the bad news from San José.
Summing up so far, we got the 4q23 production number right, even though San José hit a big
roadbump, thanks to the highly impressive new Séguéla mine. However, the combo of forward
misery at San José and guidance at its other mines for 2024 that’s either under-promising or
simply a bit disappointing, coupled with the higher AISC that comes from lower gold production
than expected, and the stock got duly whacked at market.
Which brings me to the most difficult part of today’s note on FSM, the decision to sell. It’s not
as if I wasn’t planning to cash in anyway, as we’ve been clear than exceptional circumstances
notwithstanding this wasn’t going to go further than end January and was always a trade on
the Q4 numbers. However, that 20% hit taken last week looks way oversold now and FSM’s
U$927m market cap this weekend looks particularly cheap for a company that’s about to
produce over 350,000 oz gold and plenty of silver as well. For sure the guidance wasn’t as good
as it could have been and as a result, the debt payback schedule as outlined last weekend isn’t
going to be quite as sharp, but I was holding
FSM at U$4.00 because even then it looked
cheap. I cannot shake the feeling that by
selling immediately, i.e. this week, I’ll be
dumping at the bottom and leaving at least
10% of near-term rebound on the table for
somebody else.
However and after due thought, I’m going to
bite the bullet and sell this week, only because
the trade strategy was to sell in Janaury
whatever happens. I may well wait until the
end of next week to liquidate, but by this time
next weekend FSM will be a “2024 closed
position” sitting next to Amerigo and Argonaut and even though I ‘m not getting the price I’d
like, it’s going to be a blob of green on the list for the rest of the year. A disappointing ending
to a trade that promised more.
Stocks to Follow
Some weeks are better than others and this was not a good week. In fact it was a horrible
week, not just for the heavy losses taken on some positions but also because negative news
flow sees three stocks leaving the list, with two of those realizing real money losses. Of the 18
stocks on the list last week, just two were week-over-week winners (CTGO, ALDE.v) and
another two were unchanged (MARI.to, PAU.cse). that leaves 14 losers and that’s the kind of
total you get when both GDX and GDXJ drop by 6.8% on the week. There were some heavy
percentage losers among them as well and the list goes like this: Minera IRL (MIRL.cse down
33.3%), Fortuna Silver (FSM down 20.5%), Soma Gold (SOMA.v down 18.3%) and Mene Inc
(MENE.v down 11.5%), but the one that really matters is Fortuna.
With the sale of Amerigo and the promotion of Marimaca to the standard Recommended Stocks
section after nine months of gestation on the Watch List, we now have 17 open positions on
our list and 13 are personal longs, with the other four Watch List position. Seven stocks are in
the green, two are unchanged, the others are underwater. We’ll be down to 14 by this time
next weekend.
7

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.34 61.9% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Fortuna Silver FSM SELLING U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.02 3.4% Time ran out on NT trade
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.48 0.4% Leverage trade at U$2k/oz Au
Argonaut Gold AR.to SELLING C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.395 -6.0% closing NT trade on poor Q4
Adventus Mining ADZN.v SPEC BUY C$0.285 7-Jan-24 C$0.27 -5.3% may add, permit play
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.35 -57.8% Permit approved, rebounding
Marimaca Copper MARI.to BUY C$3.05 26-May-23 C$3.01 -1.3% New: Quality Cu developer
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$15.69 -16.1% FY24 production, now moving
SolGold SOLG.to hold C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.145 -45.3% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.12 -41.5% Showing signs of life
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.79 9.7% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$20.48 8.1% High quality Cu prod, cheap
Soma Gold SOMA.v REMOVE C$0.66 26-Nov-23 C$0.49 -25.8% Leaving Watch List now
Pan Global Cop PGZ.v WATCH C$0.23 31-Dec-23 C$0.205 -10.9% tinycap Cu in Spain
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.09 5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.27 -57.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
Amerigo Res ARG.to Jan'24 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.34 -1.5% reduced Cu exposure
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Marimaca Copper Corp (MARI.to): POSITION
OPENED. I bought two slices, got some under the C$3 line
and probably paid too much for some more, but this new
trade isn’t about sweating the pennies and anything in the
ranges in which it traded last week is fine. On that subject,
it’s worth noting the wide range and how it only takes one
medium-sized seller to dump this thinly traded stock hard,
the bid/ask is set wide. That means you shouldn’t do
(err…ahem…like me) and rush to buy the first price available.
Anyway, the trade is now open and 2024 should be a good
year for this quality copper junior.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): POSITION CLOSED. As warned, this one is now tied off.
Please see ‘Market Watching’ below for coverage on the 4q23 production and preliminary sales
as reported by ARG to market on Tuesday.
Fortuna Silver (FSM) and Argonaut Gold (AR.to): SELLING. Making sure you see this, as
seen above in today’s main Fundies section we’re dumping these two near-term trades. Neither
of them have worked, but with a little good fortune in prices next week we should get out
without any damage and may even make a modest overall profit if FSM rebounds and/or AR
catches a new bid from bargain hunters.
Soma Gold (SOMA.v): REMOVING FROM WATCH LIST. It wasn’t so long ago that we
began coverage of SOMA.v in IKN758, dated November 26th, in the main fundies note, “An
8

introduction to Soma Gold (SOMA.v)” that was essentially an overview analysis of this small and
interesting gold producer in Colombia. The end of that report had a discussion and conclusion
section, here’s a line from that wrap-up:
The working title for today’s main fundies note was “Is Soma Gold (SOMA.v)
too good to be true?”
And while recognizing the obvious value on paper and if the company delivered on its promise,
the call was to watch from the sidelines rather than dive in and buy. Here’s another quote:
“The market will tell me whether I’m right or wrong to be leery of Soma Gold
despite its clear attractions as seen on the spreadsheet and, as such, I will
make it part of the Watch List as from next week.”
We now know the answer to the working title question, as SOMA was indeed too good to be
true and I was right to be leery. This week the company announced the following (3):
January 16, 2024, Vancouver, British Columbia – Soma Gold Corp. (TSXV: SOMA) (WKN:
A2P4DU) (OTC: SMAGF) (the “Company” or “Soma”) announces that Javier Cordova Unda has
temporarily stepped down as the Chief Executive Officer of the Company in order to attend to
personal matters. He will continue to serve as the President and a director of the Company. C.
Geoffrey Hampson, who currently serves as Executive Chairman of the Company’s Board, will act
as interim CEO.
Geoffrey Hampson, Chairman of the Board, states, “The Board of Directors maintains full
confidence and support for Mr. Cordova and will work with him to ensure continuity of
management while he works through these matters. We look forward to his returning to his role as
soon as possible.”
Not great news of course, but those rather vague “personal reasons” make it a lot worse (4)
(5). One thing this desk knew about Javier Córdova was his sudden firing from the job of
Ecuador’s Minister of Mining during the Lenin Moreno government in 2018. He was minister
from 2015 and most of the time during the previous Rafael Correa government. Since then he’s
faced an investigation for corruption and on January 10th, Ecuador’s public prosecutor obtained
an international arrest warrant against Córdova, who is now wanted for questioning in Ecuador
due mostly to the U$1.2m in unaccounted funds that he amassed while Minister, including
U$224,881 in personal bank accounts, other sums with third parties close to him, credit card
purchases totaling U$809,858 and vehicle purchases totaling U$166,476. And yes “innocent
until proven guilty” is also a thing in South America courtrooms but this type of detailed, five
year investigation doesn’t reach the stage where arrest warrants are emitted just for fun,
instead it’s when the public prosecutor has amassed a deep pool of evidence against the
accused. It’s also notable how Javier Córdova has done everything in his power to delay
criminal proceedings to this point and in the virtual hearing last week (done on Zoom or
similar), his pleas included asking the judge not to issue an arrest warrant as it may affect his
current employment status. No kidding. We also note the arrest warrant is now in the hands of
Interpol, which has 90 days in which to execute the order. This is not some small matter or
dispute over an unpaid bill or traffic violation, Córdiva faces serious felony charges and the fact
the case has proceeded to this late stage indicates there is overwhelming evidence of
wrongdoing. Under these circumstances, the fact SOMA even hired Córdova in 2020 with this
corruption investigation in progress is…well, let’s call it “impressive”, but now the company and
its board of directors seem to be protecting him (when according to its own pledge on
corporate governance practices SOMA should be helping Interpol locate and arrest Córdova,
now apparently hiding out and presumably somewhere in Colombia). The news did this to the
share price:
9

We see the share price run caused by the improvement in production in 1q23 and the
consolidation at the new level once Q2 confirmed the improvement, but last week saw it crash
through the 60c floor and directly to under 50c. Quite right, too. This type of small and
(arguably) single mine/mill operation can present tremendous value in the right circumstances.
However, its location in Colombia was already playing against SOMA and the last few weeks
have also seen the company quietly move 2024 production goalposts and push back its
proposed mining and mill throughput upgrade. That’s a small issue, but when you add in a CEO
that’s now under an international arrest warrant for corruption charges from when he was a
government minister and a board that’s apparently happy to stand by their man, those leery
feelings become a host of red flags. This company is therefore removed from The IKN Weekly
Watch List as from next weekend and there’s no way I’d place a single cent of my cash in the
hands of such people. It’s bad enough SOMA hired this guy knowing he was under criminal
investigation, it’s frankly incredible that they now have the chutzpah to stick up for him.
Innocent until proven guilty is for courts of law, not junior mining in South America.
Adventus Mining (ADZN.v): LOOKING TO ADD A FEW. Friday post close NRs don’t tend to
be good news for juniors, but there are exceptions and we got one from ADZN this week (6):
Luminex Resources Securityholders Overwhelmingly Approve Adventus Mining Merger
Minority partner Luminex voted up its merger
proposal, ADZN will do the same this week and once
done, we have one of the major pieces in the puzzle
in place, Assuming the closure goes smoothly from
here (due closed this month) we should see the first
re-rate of New Adventus. After that, all eyes on
Ecuador and an EIA permit because if one is
forthcoming, this should re-rate further and in the
style recently seen by Rio2 Ltd (we own) or Bluestone
(BSR.to) last week (see Regional Politics).
As for the subtitle in today’s note, there are three
reasons for the decision to up the ante in this trade in
the days ahead:
 It’s still a good entry price
 Recent sales and the decision to dump FSM and AR mean I’m now flush with cash
and somewhat underweight exposure to juniors
 The newsflow, if good, would send this stock up quickly
Those are reasonable strategic criteria, so in the next five days I’ll be looking to get some more
ADZN.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): Last week ALDE joined the throng of juniors with deals to
use Nuton (7), the proprietary mix developed by Rio Tinto (RTZ) that’s set to improve
recoveries and costs at lower grade and/or metallurgically difficult copper projects around the
world. As Nuton was already on board with sister company, Regulus, this disnt’ come as a big
surprise and the terms of this deal look similar to that and many others now helping RTZ as
testbeds. Positive enough news, but it wasn’t going to move the market much.
The Copper Basket
After three weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 2.15% to level stakes:
10

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.v 7.16 186.824 1487.12 7.96 11.2%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 179.221 713.30 3.98 -3.6%
3 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 329.26 11.15 -5.5%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 280.26 3.01 -12.2%
5 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 177.87 0.77 -44.2%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 160.48 1.47 -16.0%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 134.16 0.79 -11.2%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 175.97 89.74 0.51 -19.0%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 222.86 88.03 0.395 5.3%
10 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 108.87 44.64 0.41 57.7%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 41.46 0.67 9.8%
12 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 33.88 0.53 -8.6%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 21.71 0.125 4.2%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 19.13 0.18 0.0%
15 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 16.53 0.08 14.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -2.15%
Our basket average lost 0.7% on the week and that would have been a lot worse if it weren’t
for a couple of big springers. Of the 15 stocks in our Copper Basket, five were winners (BIG.v,
ALDE.v, KDK.v, AE.v, EDU.v), two others were unchanged (MARI.to, CCCM.v) and the other
eight were losers (NGEX.v, SLS.to, LA.v, ASCU.to, FDY.to, OCO.v, QCCU.v, COR.v). We had big
percentage winners in American Eagle (AE.v up 24.2%), Element 29 Resources (ECU.v up
16.1%) and Kodiak (KDK.v up 9.3%), we had big losers in QC Copper (QCCU.v down 21.9%)
and Faraday Copper (FDY.to down 13.6%) and Solaris (SLS.to down 7.9%) probably deserves a
mention, too. So the big moves largely cancelled each other out, leaving the weight of numbers
to decide which way the average moved.
So it would have been worse with AE and ECU, but it would have a lot worse if we hadn’t
enjoyed a little relief rally in the price of copper. After bottoming out around the U$3.72/lb
mark, buyers stepped up and were willing to
pay most prices with a seven handle. This
longer term chart scribbles in a bit of basic TA
to show that the rebound on Thursday and
Friday was enough to snap the downward
trading range that’s run the price since the
end of December and U$3.90/lb prices and
while I’m not betting on a chart formation, the
uptick in futures trading volume also came at
the right time, just after a low ebb that
suggests sellers’ exhaustion.
As for the trade press, they tried to find
reason for the rhyme but their explanations on
what was behind the mini rally looked
tentative at best, more likely guesswork hidden behind work-speak and jargon. Take for
example this (8), under the headline, “Copper rises on technical signals and lower LME stocks”.
At this time of year, that means nothing as LME stocks are supposed to drop. The contents
were just as bad, with the reporter resorting to “People are starting to anticipate some financial
stimulus (from China) which will support (metals) prices,” one trader said.” Don’t blame it on
the sunshine, moonlight or good times, either. That’s potential China stimulus cited by an
unnamed desk jockey and the sound you can hear is the journalist scraping the bottom of his
contact list barrel. However and following on from last week’s more extensive commentary on
the state of the copper market and zeroing in on the steeping contango at LME, we couldn’t
help but crack a wry smile when reading this last week from a well respected metals trader (9):
11

Copper 3M Spreads are in the deepest contango since 1995, hardly a sign of a tight market.
Indeed, the contango got even worse last week, that’s what happens in a well-supplied market
that hits a quiet seasonal period for demand, i.e. what’s happening right now. So be clear, no
matter what your prediction might be for later this year, for 2025 or beyond that to 2030 and
the Brave New World that lies beyond those dates, be clear things are currently slack in the
copper market and however much the permabulls might shout, demand is slack. However, I
have to say that the price and market action in copper last week was more positive, what you’d
want to see from a commodity that’s bottoming out. I don’t have a blinding obvious reason or
financially adroit justification because sometimes they don’t exist, sometimes it’s just the
market that decides things have got too cheap and turns things around before the post factum
reasons are discovered. You don’t have to have a clearly defined rationale for copper to go back
up, all you need is for copper to go back up.
We move on to our regular weekly check on world copper inventories
 Last week was another for moderate net gains in world copper inventory aggregate
stocks. The three official futures systems adding 7,233 metric tonnes (mt) to close the
week a 223,895mt.
 At the Shanghai SHFE, stocks continued to rise but not by much, this time up 4,668mt
to close the week at 47,753mt. We’re still in the early days of the re-stock period here,
the acceleration will happen as February takes over.
 At the LME,we saw another net tonnage gain of 2,050mt despite another 3,225mt
leaving the New Orleans warehouses. By the close on Friday, LME had 157,875 tonnes
of copper under roof.
 The Comex saw an add of 515mt to close the week at 18,267mt. No biggie.
The shape of the dedicated SHFE inventories tracker chart isn’t very different from this time last
weekend, even over at the business end on the right of the visual.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
12
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 8102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
9102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 0202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 2202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a few of our basket stocks:
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): Up on the week by a penny, last week ASCU announced a set
of 11 infill drill assays including the one chosen for the headline “521 ft (159 m) @ 1.78%CuT
at Parks/Salyer” (10) but the most interesting section came in the CEO comments. Your author
adds some bold type:
George Ogilvie, Arizona Sonoran President and CEO commented, “We look forward to
integrating the thick and high-grade Parks/Salyer porphyry copper deposit into our
Prefeasibility Study due out this quarter. Having completed the Parks/Salyer drilling
in support of the indicated category, and a partial program in support of the measured
category for a future Definitive Feasibility Study, we look forward to demonstrating the
exploration upside of our Cactus Project. In 2024, our exploration teams will expand
the definition of the primary sulphides, in addition to the oxides and enriched material
at our MainSpring and Cactus West projects, presenting a significant potential for the
Company.”

So while this wasn’t much of a market mover, we should look forward to a real catalyst from
ASCU probably in March. As this company gets reco’d by plenty of sell side anal ysts and
newsletters, momentum may finally come on this event.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): FDY had a tough week, despite announcing a new mineralized
zone at its Copper Creek project, AZ USA (11). The headline cut was 72m of 0.37% copper,
with some minor gold and silver credits, which isn’t a massive head-turner but considering its
location, well to the South-East of the zones included in the 2023 resource (the dotted circles in
the map right) means this newly discovered breccia could add quick and easy tonnes to the
overall resource.
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): We are just ten days from the announcement that SLS was
raising $130m by selling a large chunk of shares to Zijin at C$4.55 each, so it’s pretty
impressive to consider that the stock would have to rally by 14.6% from this weekend to equal
the price the Chinese were willing to pay. If you ask me, Zijin paid too much.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): We lament the precipitous drop in QCCU.v and the speed at
which it returned to its previous trading range after the MRE update and improved resource.
Sad yes, but in this market understandable. QCCU also announced its drill plans for 2024 and
for some reason the market took that as a negative.
There’s great value to be had in these shares, but
with a major catalyst now behind us you may need
to have the patience of a saint to accumulate and
hold. For those of you who’d like more, this link
goes to a Crux Investor interview with QCCU CEO
Stephen Stewart (12).
American Eagle (AE.v): Equally, here’s another
Crux Investor Q&A video with two of the main
players at AE, CEO Moreau and geology consultant
person/big shareholder Charles Greig (13). Their
show must have impressed viewers because late
week AE rebounded after a few days in the doldrums and found buyers on an otherwise slack
Friday. Of the three small copper exploreco/developer plays we considered last week, this one
has the most buzz about it today (though I still prefer PGZ.v at these prices).
The Producer Basket
After 3 weeks of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 9.85% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 39.86 34.58 -16.5%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1761.54 27.50 15.61 -13.7%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 496.54 24.50 49.34 -10.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 20.67 107.59 -2.9%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 4.96 13.60 -16.7%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 2.59 10.89 -13.8%
7 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 2.56 12.64 -2.5%
8 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 2.48 4.01 -16.6%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.14 6.20 -3.6%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 0.85 5.71 -2.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -9.85%
We saw a wide range of performances from the precious metals producer stocks last week and
our basket of ten captured most of the fun and games, too. Both the GDX and GDXJ dropped
13

by 6.8% last week, which was partly due to the approximate 1% drop in the price of gold (GLD
proxy 0.94% down) but more about the way that market leading stock Barrick (GOLD) tanked
its own price, the price of peer stock Newmont and the sector in general by announcing
disappointing Q4 production and sales numbers. More on that below, but it wasn’t all bad as
only eight of our ten were losers on the week and somehow, Dundee (DPMLF) came out
unchanged and Wesdome (WDOFF up 2.2%) even managed to book a weekly win. Add in the
“least worst” loser Eldorado (EGO down 0.6%) and we managed to beat the median quite
handily, and with three weeks gone, we’re now a point less worse than GDX 2024 YTD
Barrick (GOLD): We previewed Barrick 4q23 and YE production numbers last weekend by
commenting that, “…Q4 is traditionally the
best period for its Nevada Gold Mines arm
(held in JV with Newmont) and a good
number there would help both companies
(also true for its Pueblo Viejo JV). The
opposite is also true, of course.” And yes, the
opposite was indeed true. Not difficult to
work out that GOLD dropped its NR on
Tuesday morning, but as the day wore on
and turned into Wednesday the full
implications of the miss became apparent.
Here’s our tracking chart for sales at Barrick
(preferred to production), with the mine
segments broken down:
Barrick (GOLD): Segment sales, per qtr
14
825 225 245 245 884 554 584 116 854 364 424 115 114 854 084 115
Nevada GM Loulo-Gounkoto
Pueblo Viejo Kibali
North Mara Veladero
Bulyanhulu Tongon
Au Koz
Hemlo Buzwagi
1300 Porgera
1200 source: company filings
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300 200
100
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
While production (14) of 1.054m oz (not shown here) and sales of 1.042m oz (chart above)
mean Q4 was the best quarter of 2023, it also signified a miss of 146,000 oz on the low end of
annual production guidance, 4.2m oz. Now, it’s up to you to decide whether a 3.5% miss is
what Bristow meant by this in the Q3 results literature back in November…
Despite the projected second half improvement, gold production is forecast to be
marginally below the low end of our annual guidance range.
…but for both the market and this desk, that’s too great a miss to stomach, especially when
sales (i.e. the pointy end of the stick) only made it to 4,024,000 for the year. The main issue
was at Nevada Gold Mines, which saw 513k oz produced (511koz sold) and while that looks
good compared to any quarter since 2021, the JV with NEM needed to return at least 550k oz
to meet expectations in what is always its most productive quarter of the year. Add in the lower
than expected 127k oz from Barrick’s #2 operation Loulo-Gounkoto and its fate was decided.

Newmont (NEM): Sure enough, while media darling Barrick’s miss affected the whole gold
mining sector, the worst knock-on effect was felt by Newmont as it shares plenty of production
with its market rival (and is benchmarked to it for the rest).
Barrick (GOLD): The Newmont JVs
800
700
113
600 144 115 129 153 141 125 96 89
500 118 104 102 124 79 77
90
400
300 611
200 528 522 542 542 488 455 485 458 463 424 511 411 458 480 511
100
0
15
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Pueblo Viejo
Au Koz
Nevada GM
source: company filings
So coming off the poor market performance of the week before last (see IKN765 last weekend)
NRM went from bad to worse and has managed to slice over U$6.5Bn from its market cap in
the lapse seen on this ten day chart (or if you prefer, U$7.5Bn since the start of 2024).
And of course, as over 24% of the main gold miners’ ETF is weighted to NEM and GOLD
combined, the pain was felt by the whole sector.
EGO: Total AuEq prod, per qtr
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): After the Barrick
downer, let’s brighten the tone by reporting on
another impressive quarter from EGO with the
production NR on Monday January 15th (15) adding to the positive vibes from the week before. If we include
all payables from the multi-metal Olympias, total AuEq
production (right) came to 152,166, with 9,000 AuEq
and 143,166 in straight gold, but the most impressive
numbers came from its two main gold mines as seen
in this breakdown:
022831 247111 660611 954521 934031 037001 513711 090921 829931 922711 972711 308821 661251
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000 80000
60000
40000
20000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Oz Au
To
source: company filings
EGO: gold production breakdown, per qtr
160000
140000
11408 17882
1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25828 2 1 3 3 2 4 9 3 8 7 2 1 3 2 4 9 7 3 3 4 2 1 3 3 3 7 0 4 5 5 2 1 2 5 6 5 3 2 1 3 8996 2 1 2 5 7 7 9 7 3 9 2 1 2 6 4 1 7 2 3 3 2 1 1 5 3 4 6 3 2 5 1 1 9 7 9 5 2 6 8 1 2 1 2 3 6 8 4 6 4 6 2 1 1 8 1 8 4 4 2 8 22374
80000 44168 37369 21057 51349 56619
60000 28835 35643 51354 46917 42454 37884 38745 42821
33377
40000
20000 56816 46172 4401651040 331362977927973 377414030737160 3418037219 46291
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Oz Au Olympias
Efemcukuru
Lamaque
Kisladag
source: company filings

The consolidated total was a new record for the company and allowed it to achieve guidance.
That we expected, what we didn’t expect was the numbers from Lamaque (below left) and
Kisladag (below right), which between them topped 100k oz.
EGO: Lamaque gold prod, per qtr
And for the record while we’re here…
…Efencukuru and Olympias performed up to
expectations as well (below). All this went down very
well with the market, the stock managing to hold on to
the out-sized gains it achieved two Fridays ago. With
20/20 hindsight it’s likely someone or other had got
wind EGO was about to post strong Q4 production
numbers, but as the four days of the NYSE EGO week
show (closed for MLK day Monday), the stock did very
well to hold on to nearly all those gains while all around
it gold miners lagged and sagged. So it may have been
down 0.6% last week, but the real story is how EGO is
up over 12% compared to the GDX over the last two
weeks.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF): The other decent result from our list of ten last week
came from WDO, which also reported early week but its results pleased the market far more
than those of the market leaders. Here’s the chart that matters most, showing 4q23 production
of 36,218 oz gold and a new modern-day record quarterly sales total of 37,620 oz:
16
77333 71964 45424 94315 48873 54783 12824
91665
Oz Au EGO: Kisladag gold prod, per qtr
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000 25000 20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
97792 37972 14773 70304 06173 08143 91273
19264
Oz Au
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000 20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
EGO: Olympias gold prod, per qtr
6998
97751 32161 53451 16571 66831 84881 28871
Oz Au EGO: Efemcukuru gold prod, per qtr
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
75012 39722 37422 26312 82991 44622 24112 47322
Oz Au
30000
27500
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000 12500 10000
7500
5000
2500
0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
WDO: Gold production vs sales, per qtr
56522 75422 57303 00582 44392 00003
95514
44573 11652 00082 04272 00062 38822 00572 61153 00513 86382 00003 29903 00023 06772 00072 81263 02673
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000 15000
10000
5000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Ozt Au
Production
Sales
source: company filings

WDO: Gold prod/qtr
17
69312
63892
12632 76242 43391 65771 50471 20552 95102 54822 19302
9614
5511 8147
5112 8914 7877 7369
5208
92961
44121
47042
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
Ozt Au Kiena
Mishi
Eagle River
source: WDO filings
That’s an improvement and on checking out the production breakdown (above), we see the
Misha open pit was zero for the quarter and the Eagle UG operation ran at a decent 24,074 oz
Au produced, so the difference came from Kiena. That’s good and the reason is even better,
because throughput was very much in-line with previous quarters…
WDO: Tonnes milled, per qtr
07403
30065
00083
95165
26112
71235
87462
46995
21161
74225
91415
60385
42324
33184
42815
27646
15374
35155
94694
96645
120000
110000
100000
90000 80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000
20000
10000
0
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
mt Kiena
Mishi
Eagle River
source: company filings
…and the difference came from what has been Kiena’s weak point, grade. The 7.1g/t average is
a distinct improvement from anything in the last four quarters and indicates the company is
beginning to access the higher grading muck located
at depth. That’s also means we can give more
credence to its 2024 guidance numbers that came
with last week’s NR and guide for between 160,000oz
and 180,000oz this year as grade ramps up at Kiena,
then between 180,000 oz and 210,000 oz in 2025 as
both Eagle and Kiena run at full tilt. In other words,
five years after the fact we’ll finally get a 200k oz +
production year out of WDO, something it has
promised ever since we started following the stock
(and trading it very successfully in previous years, I
add with no false modesty).
WDO: Annual production and guidance
88619 97209
348321 058011 833321
000061
000571
220000
200000
35000
180000
20000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
9102 0202 1202 2202 3202 tse4202 tse5202
WDO: Kiena avg head grade, per qtr
Oz Au
source: company filings
The news went down very well with the market, as this chart shows:
8.5
1.41
7.7
6.01 2.01
9.5 9.5
5
9.4
1.7
g/t Au
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings

However, WDO still has a way to go to improve its weakened balance sheet and while the cash
flow is bound to impress, depreciation and financial obligations will continue to weigh on the
bottom line. Even though its sold around 10,000 more ounces of gold in Q4 than it did in 3q23
our forecast is for a modest net profit” at best and a working cap that will still be in negative
territory. So yes, there’s a lot to like about the guidance and prospects of WDO turning into a
real moneymaker as Kiena (finally) gets into gear, but there’s no reason to chase the stock in
these first couple of months, either.
Pan American Silver (PAAS): The biggest loser of the week (even worse than Barrick), Pan
American joined the throng and also announced (16) its 4q23 production numbers, as well as
2024 guidance. It’s clear the market didn’t like what it saw, all you have to do is look at the
comparative price chart to GDX (right), but after due consideration and a couple of days of
reflection I find myself in the odd position of defending a stock and a company that has spent
the last couple of years promising more than it can deliver and being generally disappointing.
Perhaps the reaction was due to the way PAAS had a poor quarter of silver production and
failed to meet guidance on that metal for the year, but these days PAAS is nobody’s idea of a
silver miner. Around 76% of revenues came from gold in 3q23 and this desk estimates that will
move up to 80%, so what really matters here is gold production and…
PAAS: Gold production, per qtr
18
7.651
131 3.821 921
4.461
7.221
2.842 2.442 8.762
Oz Au
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23
source: company filings
…that really wasn’t bad. That 267,800 oz gold is the best quarter ever (well it only had two
quarters to compete against, but you know what I mean) and the guidance for 2024 of 880k oz
to 1,000k oz represents small but incremental growth. The bad capex and IRR news from La
Colorada skarn project is already baked in and while 21m oz to 23m oz of silver guidance is also
fine by me and plenty above the 20.4m oz of last year. Maybe PAAS just got unlucky and
posted a meh quarter with low silver (that corporate title) at the wrong time, but the selling it
took last week looks particularly overdone and I’d expect this one to rally faster than most…if
gold puts in a good week, at least.
The TinyCaps List
After 3 weeks of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 8.73% to level stakes:

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 221.5 24.37 0.11 69.2%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 67.27 7.06 0.105 -22.2%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 32.09 0.30 76.5%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 25.52 0.17 -5.6%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 7.98 0.09 -10.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 5.36 0.075 0.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 9.27 0.13 0.0%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 34.65 0.71 -5.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 219.21 17.54 0.08 -11.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 13.61 0.115 -4.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 8.73%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Week three of the new TinyCaps list saw 5% added to the basket average and all thanks to just
two of the ten stocks. There were only three winners on the week (BAY.v, DMX.v, STS.v) but
two of those did all the heavy lifting, so a cheer for Aston Bay (BAY.v up 37.5%) and District
Metals (DMX.v up 22.5%), two tinycappers that have flown out the traps this year. But they are
exceptions rather than the rule this January and the three UNCH stocks (KLDC.v, LMS.v, PA.v)
and four losers (ARIC.v, EDG.v, SURG.v, VAU.v) are more typical of what’s out there. Of the
losers, the biggest drop was suffered by Endurance Gold (EDG.v down 15%). Now for notes on
three of the above:
District Metals (DMX.v): We mentioned last week that despite its fundamental issues DMX
had the “right time right place” look about it and sure enough, it got its tailwind from the
uranium mania now prevalent in the market and made the absolute most of its momentum.
With its share price rising, DMX on Tuesday took advantage and announced (8) a $4m
placement priced at 22c per unit (share plus half warrant 30c strike), a deal that was
immediately upped to C$4.5m. That news stopped price momentum, but only for a day or so
and the froth in and around uranium plays saw the speculation take hold again, so by close
Friday this had run to 30c and the bought deal takers were feeling smart, for sure.
We remind readers how we followed DMX last year and how it had the same type of fast and
perky price moves early in the year, only to go flat as 2023 wore on.
Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v): There must be quite a few Canadian explorecos looking at BAY
at the moment and wondering why they didn’t think of this angle. Now in JV with Australian
exploreco WA1 on its Storm property, WA1 last week announced and new Chair who has deep
experience and is unafraid to put his money where his mouth is, as he talked up the project
(talked it up a storm, in fact) and added large insider purchases to his arrival. The result was a
promo frenzy in Australia on WA1 and, as BAY is getting a free ride to Feas study level these
days, the partner and owner of the property got the benefit of the arb. So a nice week for BAY
without even having to put out a NR or do any work.
19

Surge Copper (SURG.v): On Friday SURG announced the successful closure of its deal to
purchase the 15% of the Beg property in BC it didn’t already own from Centerra (17) on the
terms previously discussed. All good, now let’s see what SURG can do with its wholly owned
project.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: Volatile but investable if you have the stomach
The problem with covering the recent events in Ecuador is not what to write about, but what to
leave out. The start of 2024 is another one of those situations where a highly complex national
political problem that this desk reads about and monitors on a regular basis suddenly blows up,
spills over and affects the mining industry and while we have covered some of the issue in
previous editions, I always find myself thinking “Ahh, now how do I explain this in catch-up
mode?” and also while trying hard to keep focused on what really matters to this audience. I
don’t think many of you live or are planning to live in Ecuador so domestic politics is only
interesting up to a certain point, what we need to do is sum up the situation and then try to
show how it affects FDI, the mining sector and the dollars and cents you may have put into
Ecuador exposed mining trades.
So first, a potted history of President Noboa’s fight against the political opposition, the rise of
narco-related crime gangs and the increasing crime problem connected to it all. To begin, lert’s
state for the record that we all know Ecuador has a gangland problem that’s tightly connected
to drug trafficking, particularly the cocaine trade that’s zeroed in on Ecuador as an exit point for
the merchandise produced in Colombia and Peru. There’s plenty of evidence, but let’s just go
with the way presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated last year in a narco
gang hit while on the campaign trail. Not only was Villavicencio a high profile “anti corruption”
candidate but had his own long history of battles with corrupt politicians and their antics. This
leads to our second point and the first major political event in President Daniel Noboa’s time,
“Caso Metastasis” (The Metastasis case, as in cancer). In this, the country’s attorney general
(the extremely brave) Diana Salazar launched a major operation aimed at narco-corruption of
politics. It’s led to dozens of arrests and rocked the political establishment in the country. As
well as narco kingpins, many people from the Rafael Correa government are now under arrest
or under heavy public scrutiny. As “Caso Metastasis” rolled out, the drug gangs hit back and
violence, murders and terrorist moves became commonplace. At this point, President Noboa
upped the ante by calling a limited State of Emergency and curtailing some standard rights, as
well as enacting an 11pm curfew across the country and announcing the construction of new
prisons in the style used by President Bukele of El Salvador to crack down on its gangland
problem (and successfully, too). That got a mention in a previous edition of The IKN Weekly,
but then the narco gangs went to war and stepped up the pressure with a range of moves
including shootings, attacks on public prosecutors, jail riots with multiple hostages taken, (one
prison officer hanged to death on Facebook Live) and the now infamous attack on the TV
station during a live show, as well as attacks against universities and other public
establishments. To his credit, Noboa didn’t back down and raised eyebrows across the board by
playing the heaviest card to date, declaring the country in a “State of Internal War”, basically
Civil War. This move has allowed him to deploy the military in operations against the narco
gangs, set up military checkpoints across the country and run operations against suspected
narco gangs that bring “swift justice” (let’s say) against perpetrators. So to cut a long and
complicated story short, this is where we stand today on the country level. President Noboa has
support for his hardline measures among the rank and file at the moment (your average
Ecuadorian doesn’t want to live in a narco state, surprise surprise) and the “War on Gangs” plus
modeling his policies on Bukele in El Salvador has made him a popular figure…so far. Time will
20

tell how this plays out, but as far as the mining sector goes there are several ramifications and
here’s a bullet point list in no particular order:
 A lot of the same drug gangs are also heavily involved in illegal mining activities, particularly
in the hot zones along the border with Peru or in the Buenos Aires region of the country
(where successive governments have tried and failed to crack down on illegal gold mining).
This puts mining in the spotlight, even the legal and permitted type.
 The optics for the outside world on this sudden explosion in violence and gangland crime is
not good and has seen investors walk away from the country. That’s totally understandable
and it applies to the mining sector, too. Anyone seeing the images and headlines using
phrases like “civil war” will be well within their rights to get leery about exposure to junior
mining explorecos under these circumstances. However, it’s also fair to say that by and large
the formal mining world is far removed from the fight and with only a few exceptions (check
your maps if you own shares), unaffected by the sudden rise in belligerence and narco gang
activities.
 Indeed, the “War on Gangs” may turn out to be of benefit as if their influence on illegal
mining circles is weakened, it should allow the State to move on its plans to bring more
formalization to the sector.
 Slightly more cynically, a new President riding a wave of popular acceptance in this way is
also a new President that can move on less popular initiatives without getting as much
pushback. It may be a little bit of a logical jump, but if the clearly pro-mining Noboa wants
to get unpopular projects permitted (e.g, the Adventus/Salazar/Luminex Curipamba/El Domo
project, as one of the major backers is Nobis, the investment arm of his megarich father’s
business empire), there would be no better time than when his wider policies are applauded
by the general public. He and his government would also be able to make a better case for
the creation of formal employment in rural zones, pointing to what happens when the
informal takes control.
Bottom line: Ecuador is clearly in a bad place today but overall, the risk is limited for those
mining companies exposed there. As you know, I’ve recently taken a small trading position in
Adventus (ADZN.v) on the assumption it will get its EIA permit soon and get the type of price
re-rate recently enjoyed by Rio2 (RIO.v) and more recently and controversially, Bluestone
(BSR.to) in Guatemala. The risk is obviously there and with the national scene so volatile, you
aren’t going to see confident levels of cash moving into the country at the moment. However,
the decision by Noboa to fight fire with fire and evoke the Civil War level of reaction has been a
success and since the army hit the streets, the impression that Ecuador is spiraling out of
control has diminished. A few more weeks of “no news is good news” on an international level
(e.g. no more dramatic scenes on live TV) will lower risk perception and in the mean time, we
may well see the Noboa government move on its plans to push permitting forward (watching
ADZN). Summing up, it’s perfectly understandable that the world now sees Ecuador as a high
risk jurisdiction and as such, I’m not expecting mining FDI to flood back into the country in
2024. However, the risk is now over-estimated and certainly in the case of explorecos working
the country. That means cheap stocks and bargain entry points at the moment and I know I
wouldn’t be able to buy Adventus stock under 30c if it weren’t the case. Ya pays yer money and
ya takes yer chances, madam/sir.
Argentina: Milei’s opening gambits
The same applies to Argentina as we move through the second month of the Milei presidency
and observe the large forces at work, as his government tries to enact and apply the (largely)
free market policies under which he was elected while the large and well-established opposition
try to block his moves. If that opener sounds as though I’m rooting for the Milei side of the
argument it’s because I am, but I’m also aware how difficult it’s going to be and my inner cynic
knows he’s going to fail at some point. It’s a question of when, not whether.
So to business and we found out in December what mechanisms Milei would use to push his
deep reforms through. Ones that, in his opinion, would transform the country into an
economically vibrant and “normal” society. In essence, he is using three tools:
21

1) Allow the currency to find its true level. It cannot be called “free floating” yet, but Milei has
stripped away many of the restrictions on the trading of the Argentina Peso (ARS), removing
many (to date not all) of the artificial props that gave it “official” and “street” rates of varying
amounts. As the executive has direct access to the mechanisms that control currency (Central
Bank, fiscal and monetary policy, etc) these changes have happened form day one, as this
chart once again taken from the tracking website Dolarito Dot Com shows:
The recent move of the unofficial street rate to ARS1,220 = USD1 is an indication that there’s
plenty of work left to do and the first steps taken to relax the “official rate” to 860 or so with a
crawling peg have a long way to travel still. We know from his campaign statements that Milei’s
eventual goal is the Dollarize the economy and if so, the Peso by all accounts has a lot further
to travel. But make no mistake, this is a drastic policy move for the country and the type of
“hard medicine” that causes immediate and deep recessions and this is the issue now facing
Milei, as this slamming of the economic brakes will cause havoc, close businesses and decimate
consumer spending. In December alone, before the economic shock package had fully hit,
Argentina Retail Sales dropped by 13.7% Year-On-Year. And just wait until the average
Argentine has received their bills for the month of January (and all through this year) which
bring eye-popping increases to the amount they must pay for basic services such as electricity,
fuel, healthcare etc. To get to the point, here’s a small hack from my own past as three days
after the Milei run-off vote victory (that’s two months from this weekend, my stars it seems
longer than that) it became the subject of conversation with the erudite CEOvonGold on Twitter
and to save time and few keystrokes today, here’s how that exchange (which began focused on
mining) evolved (18):
CEOvonGold: Other question: What about currency risk? Lets assume Argentinian
peso would get pegged to USD tomorrow - what would change for miners?
Your author: Not gonna happen tomorrow. To be realistic, there's a scenario in which
Arg can dollarize in 12-24 months. That involves removing official rate peg & letting the
Peso float. We go to Dolar Blu? But it needs to devalue further! 2k? 3k? Nasty near-
term consequences for LT gain.
CEOvonGold: Agree its not realistic short term, but hypothetically. What is the cost
and revenue structure for mining companies in Argentina. Revenues in USD, but
Costs? Some Peso, some Dollar? There is an advantage to having your cost get
inflated away to an extent, no?
Your author: Totally. The economic theory is clear, Peso inflation is caused by the
Peso & not the goods. We know that and it unwinds the same way it winds. However,
it's not tough to envisage the near-term pain for rank&file Argentines when Milei
presses the free float button. Popcorn time.
CEOvonGold: Yup. Doubt the Argentinean populus has the will to suffer the
necessary short term pain. At least that exact mindset has gotten them into the
trainwreck they are currently in. Voting by itself is not going to solve their problems, if
they start rioting as soon as policies change
Your author: I set my doubts and (natural) cynicism aside and wish Milei luck on this, i
really do. It's a very "special" country when it comes to employment and work culture.
22

But hey, he knows this. Arguably, JD Peron is still the most powerful politico in the
country to this day.
This is now playing out, as this coming week sees the first (and there will be many, be in no
doubt) national strike and protest march organized mostly by workers’ unions and Milei’s
political opposition. So watch out for the media footage on Wednesday as marches hit the
streets and the more militant opposition are sure to try their luck against the powers Milei has
tacitly handed to the forces of law and order. And before we leave this subject, though it may
seem like it to the outside it’s wrong to label that opposition “left wing” or “socialist” and even
labels such as “Traditional Peronist” don’t capture the true essence… Argentina really is
complicated).
2) New laws. The second thrust of the deep reform is via the lawmaking process and there are
two prongs in his attack. First and on live TV in December he used extraordinary executive
powers known and the “Decree of National Urgency” (DNU) to sign into law a big reform
package of items. This move got immediate pushback from opposition who say the move is
unconstitutional, as he has used a law that is for specific instances in national emergencies to
attempt to push through a whole series of policy changes that should by rights go through
Congress, a body where his party and alliance is does not hold majority power. Indeed, the
DNU move has already hit dozens of legal challenges and most of the changes are now subject
to blocking orders from courtrooms large and small. Knowing the Argentina courtrooms, this
package of changes could be held up indefinitely.
Meanwhile, Milei has sent to Congress a separate law reform package known as the “Omnibus
Law” detailing around 300 law changes he wants to enact. This massive law reform is now
making its way through the Congress system and is subject to current hot debate, as Team
Milei negotiates with friends, foes and those somewhere in between to try and get as much of
the package to final debate and passage through the lower (deputies) and upper (senate)
houses, thereby into law. We’re not going into the details of the law reform package, suffice to
say that for the large part it’s aimed at de-regulating the Argentine economy, loosening red tap
and aims to cut public spending drastically, as the government aims for a balance of payments
surplus of around 2% for 2024. Most local commentators doubt the Milei government will
achieve that 2% number even if things go well and it gets most of its law package through
Congress promptly, as the government this week enacted another round of emergency type
rulings that let Congress debate the project for another month to February 15th in what is
normally the summer vacation downtime. Reasonably optimistic pro-Milei economists last week
forecast that Argentina may get to a balance of payments neutrality at best, with the 2% target
too optimistic due to the sudden drop in economic activity caused by the currency adjustment
(we call that “a recession”) and the likelihood he won’t achieve all the public sector budget cuts
he wants (we call that “ministries he promised to close will remain open”).
However, we do need to consider what Milei wants to do with the mining sector. The reforms
are mixed between the Omnibus Law project and the DNU. Most of the initiatives are sector-
friendly, aimed at reducing bureaucracy and making it easier to invest in mining projects, one is
to annul or severely restrict the so-called “Glacier Law” that stops projects form going ahead in
high Andean zones close to glaciers, then one more general law is aimed at reducing the right
of protest and stopping strikes and protest marches from happening with such frequency, that
one may be useful as environmental groups have vowed to kick up a storm if the Glacier Law is
repealed. However, there is one item that has mining companies complaining. Somewhat
ironically for a President who vows to make Argentina a Libertarian free market paradise, the
Omnibus Law going through parliament includes the proposal to raise export taxes on mining
products to 15%, from the current 4.5% to 8% range (most metals exports pay the 8%
number). The government estimates this will bring in an extra U$300m a year for the State and
as that’s U$300m coming from the pockets of the major mining companies, the squealing has
been loud.
3) The court of public opinion. The third and final battle front set up by Milei is the court of
Public Opinion and what happened at Davos last week is very much part of that deal. Here’s
how Bloomie reported on Milei’s show-stealing speech at the world Economic Forum (19):
23

As presidential speeches go, Javier Milei’s Davos debut was quite something: The
Argentine libertarian took the stage to make an unapologetic defense of capitalism, the
kind you don’t hear too often in mainstream politics these days
The speech pricked up the ears of the reporters covering yet another schmooze fest, won
plaudits from all sides and here’s the (translated) sound bite that got the most replays on social
media:
“Today, I’m here to tell you that the Western world is in danger. And it is in danger
because those who are supposed to have to defend the values of the West are co-
opted by a vision of the world that inexorably leads to socialism, and thereby to
poverty.”
That’s the type of hard-nosed capitalist rhetoric that will go down well on the right wing around
the world, with clear pushback against “wokeness” (for want of a better word) and appealing to
policymakers and business leaders alike. So we need to consider the audience for that speech
carefully, as it was obviously planned carefully and there are two groups that matter:
 Argentina’s general public: Milei knows his numbers and knows Argentina is about to go
through a rough 2024. His plan is to get the bad medicine swallowed quickly, see the country
in and out of a sharp downturn and rebound,, then get out the other side with inflation under
control and a quasi-dollarized economy that can begin to create wealth again. However for
that he’ll need continued support, which will be hard when people run out of money and have
to adjust their lifestyles downwards (esp its middle class). However, he also knows what
makes Argentina tick and there’s nothing, and I mean nothing that the average Argentine
likes more than being taken seriously by the rest of the world. If Milei can put the country
centre stage and get the “serious countries” (as they say down there) to applaud what he’s
doing, they’re far more likely to withstand the battering that 2024 is about to give them and
allow his strategy time for fruition. That speech as Davos was designed to steal the show and
make Argentina a major talking point around the globe, it did just that and it will make his
domestic problems easier to handle.
 The IMF: We know Argentina is out of money and needs to service its sovereign debt in some
way or manner. We also know that the Milei plan to run a balance of payments surplus in
2024 is all about appeasing the IMF and getting/keeping them onside, in other words he
wants more credit from them (be that more time on current loans, new loans on top or most
likely, both). Therefore it’s in his best interests to say what the IMF wants to hear, in fact it’s
even more important to tell the countries that run and sponsor the IMF what they want to
hear. If Milei can position Argentina in the eyes of the political world (e.g. next US
administration) as “too important to fail” or “At the vanguard against the inexorable rise of
Marxism disguised as woke nonsense” etc etc, he suddenly makes Argentina’s cause too
important to ignore on the world stage, thereby opening up the IMF for the money/time
Argentina will require to complete his hardline reforms. And indeed we’ve already seen the
Milei government go to market twice in this first few weeks, first up selling U$3.2Bn of new
USD denominated debt via the Central Bank (more irony, he uses the entity he vowed to close
in order to add debt to a country he said was already too deep in debt) and last week (during
Davos, hardly a coincidence) announced a new U$4.7Bn line of credit had been established
with The IMF.
The question is, will it work? So far his charm offensive with the rest of the world has been a
success (and he has the hard dollars to show for it, thereby buying time) but in.-country, his
opposition in Argentina will be all too aware of the stakes involved as well. Expect the protests
against his nascent government to ramp up as recession bites, a wave of unemployment hits,
closed businesses close, we see sweeping drops in living standards across the country. And
that’s just the private sector, there are the millions (no exaggeration) of public sector jobs that
are now under threat with many of them held by people that aren’t used to doing real work for
a living. All those people don’t want to see the end of their monthly paycheques and will hit the
streets with a vengeance. Under such circumstances, there’s a lot riding on the law reform
package now going through Congress (and the courtroom battles to come over the DNU
emergency decrees) and we’re in for a tough battle in Argentina this year. As a final finally,
24

please note that Milei’s economic right-hand man in these economic reforms is his recently
appointed Finance Minister, Luis Caputo, who was also FinMin in the Mauricio Macri
government.
As for me, I’m going to stick with the call I made in 2023, be careful what you wish for. The
international financial and commentariat world seems to have fallen in love with Milei and as
such, there’s a lot of misplaced confidence in his ability to transform a stubbornly difficult
country. While I agree that “something needs to be done” about Argentina, i still think Milei is
bad news for the country and its future stability and wouldn’t risk too much on his success at
the moment. But that’s just me and despite my misgivings, I do wish him luck on his quest.
He’s going to need it and the real fun starts this Wednesday.
Market Watching
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q23 production
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Although now sold, it’s still worth tracking the well-run and
reliable copper producer (just don’t call it a miner) Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): For one thing,
plenty of readers are still likely to be owners and for another, its profile is one that will always
attract me for a potential return trade. ARG reported its 4q23 production numbers right on
schedule last week and they came in very much as expected. Copper shipments of 16.08m lbs
were very slightly lower than our forecast 16.5mlbs. That means ARG shipped 57.22m lbs
during the year, a miss on annual guidance that we already knew would happen (mostly due to
the weather damage in late Q2 and part of Q3. Meanwhile, Q4 moly sales of 0.33m lbs were
10% higher than guidance. Overall it was a solid quarter and a welcome return to form,
something that ARG expects to continue as it guided 2024 production at 62.4m lbs Cu. That
suggests a benchmark quarter this coming year of a little over 16m lbs, as Q2 includes its
annual maintenance shutdown.
20 ARG.to: Copper sales
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
25
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
So with average received copper price at U$3.82/lb for 4q23, some 6c above 3q23, the
calculator suggests U$61.4m of gross copper revenues and a small positive adjustment on
previous quarter shipments still under invoice.
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
797.37
904.97
567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 897.66 2.07 846.25 908.25 882.94
630.23
855.14
2.14
3.03
4.16 6520.26
9.24
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
We then run the mine site charges (mainly the royalty due to El Teniente) and add back the
moly by product credits. These charts show our best guesses and while the charges should be

close, the moly revenue is a bit of black box and we guesstimate U$4.6m, in-line with Q3. That
all adds up to a top line revenue in the P+L of U$42.9m
That’s higher than our previous U$38.8m estimate for the quarter and that good result is a
combo of 1) a better realized average price than expected and a better moly credit level. So all
good, then come COGS and a gross profit estimate of U$7m, which translates into an operating
profit of U$5.4m.
That’s a good number and when we back out DD&A (in the case of ARG, we can be more
lenient about the reality of cash flow as its raw material is as close to unlimited as they come in
mining) the “real world margin is now over U$10m, a very welcome improvement. That will
cover the dividend and help improve the balance sheet after those unexpected cost items in Q3.
ARG: The real world margin
26
33.21
97.71 24.02 93.22 79.61 15.22
49.52
95.3 20.0-
57.51 34.81
67.1
1.1-
4.01
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
40
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests
Which bring us to the balance sheet items and here are the two that matter, with an accurate
cash number (below left) as at December 31st of U$16.2m (because ARG told us in the NR). As
for working cap (below right), that’s a little better than our estimates going into last week but
we still expect ARG to run a U$10m negative leaving 2023. That’s an important point because it
suggests ARG will need to add at least U$20m to the balance sheet before it considers any
other capital return policy above the standard 3c/quarter dividend. In other words, it’s highly
unlikely to re-start share buybacks or pay special dividends for the first three quarters of 2024,
unless of course copper prices go to bonanza levels.
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m Transport ARG: Mo credits
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
605.3 267.4 116.5 822.4 683.3 142.2 294.3 149.5
930.8
958.2 85.4 6.4
9
8
7
6
5
4
3 2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
624.12
616.1 655.3-
738.8
874.31
503.3- 420.2- 7
65
60
55
50
45 40
35
30
25 20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
COGS
Gross profit
10.12
74.1- 41.5- 10.1-
44.31
72.3- 3.6-
4.5
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data

ARG.to: Working capital
The bottom line: Q4 marks a welcome return to
form from ARG and a decent looking quarter
financially. All good, but if we consider the price
chart over the last ten days (right) the stock
dropped, as it’s now clearly tied to the moves in
the price of copper and as that dropped under
the U$3.80/lb line, so ARG sold off slightly.
Overall, ARG gave us an in-line quarter for 4q23
and guidance for the coming year is right where
we expected it to be, what will play on the stock
more than anything else is the price of copper,
with U$3.80/lb and U$4.00/lb likely trigger prices
in 2024.
Conclusion
IKN766 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Even though Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) has been mightily oversold and is at a
derisory price considering what it owns (no matter San José), I’m still going to sell my
trading position and move on. If I leave 10% on the table for somebody else than so
be it, but sticking to the plans and taking this back to cash.
 The decision to sell Argonaut Gold (AR.to) was much easier, though. Its Q4 was poor
and there’s more than a little suggestion of even more foot-dragging on Magino this
year, all from a company with a woeful record of over-promising.
 The other very easy call to make was dropping Soma Gold (SOMA.v) from the Watch
List, my stars mining is bizarre mondo sometimes.
 Even with the recent purchase of Marimaca (MARI.to), the sales of ARG, FSM and AR
have my treasury swollen and the war chest ready to buy bargains in 2024. We’ll start
by adding a few ADZN, as that permit may pop out at any moment and double this
share price in doing so.
 A pity I bet on FSM and not the other one that’s had my eye recently, Eldorado (EGO).
Another strong quarter in the books.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
27
884.11
608.71
565.12
236.42
494.43 209.01
58.6
79.9
806.21
998.4- 27.21-
01-
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m ARG.to: Cash and ST
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source company filings
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
$m
source: company filings

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.argonautgold.com/files/doc_news/2024/01/ar-press-release-2023-production-results-final.pdf
(2) https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/fortuna-reports-record-2023-production-of-452-koz-au-eq-and-2024-annual-
guidance-of-457-to-497-koz-au-eq/
(3) https://somagoldcorp.com/2024/soma-gold-corp-announces-resignation-of-ceo/
(4) https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2024/01/20/este-es-el-exministro-ecuatoriano-de-rafael-correa-que-tiene-circular-
roja-de-la-interpol-y-es-buscado-en-colombia/
(5) https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/politica/javier-cordova-enriquecimiento-ilicito-prision/
(6) https://luminexresources.com/news/luminex-resources-securityholders-overwhelmingly-approve-adventus-mining-
merger/
(7) https://aldebaranresources.com/site/assets/files/5929/2024-jan-15-press-nuton-agreement.pdf
(8) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-rises-on-technical-signals-and-lower-lme-stocks/
(9) https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1748003050336272883?t=3M6FLiMwOoo-bmwO_HGhdw&s=03
(10) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-drills-521-ft-159-m-1.78-cut-at-parks-salyer/
(11) https://faradaycopper.com/news-releases/faraday-copper-discovers-new-mineralized-breccia-8-7245/
(12) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJc4v-pNUjQ
(13) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKHO-tgd6dM
(14) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2024/barrick-reports-higher-q4-gold-production/default.aspx
(15) https://www.eldoradogold.com/news-and-media/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/Eldorado-Gold-
Produces-485140-Ounces-of-Gold-in-2023-With-Strong-Fourth-Quarter-Preliminary-Gold-Production-of-143166-
Ounces-Achieves-2023-Production-Guidance-Provides-Conference-Call-Details/default.aspx
(16) https://www.panamericansilver.com/news/pan-american-silver-announces-preliminary-2023-production-results-and-
guidance-for-2024/
(17) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-completes-acquisition-of-100-interest-in-berg/
(18) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN/status/1727317502974419027?t=nQrT9BeGIv34C0lRdMxgGw&s=03
(19) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-18/argentina-s-president-milei-missed-a-key-point-in-his-
defense-of-capitalism
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
28

Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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