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The IKN Weekly
Week 763, January 7th 2024
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, The main event in 2024, A small confession
and some personal news, Gold is good but not great.
Fundamental Analysis: Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v): A pre-merger buying opportunity.
Stocks to Follow: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Soma Gold (SOMA.v), Pan Global Resources
(PGZ.v), Adventus Mining (ADZN.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Argonaut Gold (AR.to), SolGold
(SOLG.to) (SOLG.L), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Contango ORE (CTGO), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Hercules Silver (BIG.v), Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v),
Camino Minerals (COR.v), American Eagle (AE.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Franco-Nevada (FNV), Eldorado Gold (EGO).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, District Metals (DMX.v), Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina: Milei meets political reality Ecuador, Noboa goes referendum,
Mexico: Sonora talks mining development.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
It’s only been on the Watch List for one week, but sometimes you have to strike while the iron
is hot. Assuming things go to plan I am a buyer of Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v) in the days
ahead and the stock will move up to take its place as one of the open trades on the Stocks to
Follow list, as from next weekend.
In today’s edition
 Adventus Mining (ADZN.v) and its main Curipamba/El Domo project in Ecuador have
been on my radar for many years, but has never really interested me as a trade or
purchase. However and due to some specific events now coming to a head, I think its
near-term future is bright and I see a good opportunity for a profitable near-term trade.
The buy call is explained in this week’s main Fundies section.
 It was a slack start to the year for most metals and the mining stocks mostly dropped.
We await the start of real news flow as from this coming week.
 As for copper, our fears that it wouldn’t immediately do what it’s been hyped up to do
in 2024 started to materialize during week one, with the US Dollar rebounding and
mediocre level demand data out of China combining to put the bears in control. We run
the ruler over the sector in Copper Basket, but please also note that I’m again thinking
about cashing in on the money held in my largest copper trade, Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to) and putting that cash to work in other places…or simply building a bit of a war
chest. That’s in Stocks to Follow.
 The good news from last week is the mini rally we saw in Top Pick Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), which finally moved on decent volume and did so against sector headwinds.
We may also have identified the reason for the new interest, as the governor of Sonora
Mexico, location of the Santana mine, is getting active on mining and lobbying the
1

national government for support for the sector. All it would take is one simple permit
for a simple leach pad extension…
 For the first time in a long time, the intro section has plenty of lines and covers several
topics. We lay out why gold isn’t likely to fulfill the wild dreams of hardcore goldbugs
this year. Also, today includes some personal news as a rare exception (as it pertains to
my public persona), I come clean on what I (in fact “we”) have really been doing these
last few weeks. It was far from a vacation, that’s for sure .
The main event in 2024
An official Happy New Year to the esteemed readership of The IKN Weekly, as we’ve collectively
managed to make it to the start of a year that, like it or not, will be dominated by one issue. It
might only get around 160m votes cast, around half the country population (or two thirds of the
eligible voting population) but the run-up, running and fall out from the 2024 USA Presidential
election promises to affect everything everywhere. That includes capital markets and the forces
that move them, so even we players in the relatively tiny sub-sector known as junior mining
need to keep this fact in mind at all times and this, below, is as simple as I could make it:
 The USA affects the US Dollar
 The US Dollar affects metals prices
 Metals prices affect mining companies
 That’s us
However, please be clear that The IKN Weekly will not, repeat NOT, be providing any sort of
running commentary on US politics, the election campaign, the big day on Tuesday November
5th, the inevitable legal battles that will follow or any of the longer-term ramifications as 2024
becomes 2025. For one thing, you’ll have all the coverage you could possibly want from a
million other places and for another, I have better things to do. By necessity we’ll have to make
mention of its influences on our sector of focus as the year rolls out, but that’s as far as we go.
However, none of us should underestimate the power of the US election on our lives this year,
no matter where you live or what you do, be it the run-up, the event or the aftermath. We live
in interesting times, ladies and gents, and the race between Trump (or other) and Biden (or
other) is set to cast a long shadow.
A small confession and some personal news
It’s also time to come clean: During the latter part of last year, I made several references to
taking a little extra time over the Christmas period in order to justify running three “bare bones”
editions over the holiday period, instead of the usual two and along the way, I explained that
we as a family were going to “visit my in-laws”. Here’s an example, from the intro to IKN758
dated November 26th
“…we the family (your author, little Joseph, the good lady and #2 still inside the good lady until March)
are travelling in mid-December, as we’re spending Christmas with the in-laws. This means an international
flight during the week of December 11th and all the cat-herding that entails, as well as warm welcomes
and interrupted weekends, as well as a high likelihood of difficult internet access.”
I wasn’t lying, but admittedly it was a bit of a subterfuge and here’s your confession of the day:
We did indeed travel and we did indeed spend Christmas with the in-laws, but it’s not the full
story. We as a family have moved to Venezuela and now live in Venezuela, which after two
decades in Peru was quite a thing for me personally as well as a big move for the three of us.
The move is the result of a plan we’ve had for over a year, took plenty of organization and
while our new house is still a bit of a work in progress, we’re now at the point where the urgent
emergency repairs and upgrades are done and it’s becoming livable (another month and we’ll
be outright comfortable). So while it’s best not to mix one’s personal and professional life for
public consumption, after due consideration this change gets a mention in today’s intro for two
main reasons:
1) My new country of residence is not, let’s say, “a standard choice” for a foreign national in
South or even Latin America and in fact, it came as a surprise to my Peruvian friends. I’m also
aware that it may become a subject of interest for both friends and foes in the mining world. As
2

I have picked up a few of the latter over the years, I think it best you hear it from the horse’s
mouth and also the reason behind the move from Peru to Venezuela, before any wannabe
salacious gossip-mongers start their work on social media. There’s nothing pushing us out of
Peru and neither is there a political or ideological reason to move to Venezuela, in fact the
reason is rather mundane; myself (British) and my partner (Venezuelan) want to raise our
children with family around. The choice was to move either to her home country or mine so by
preference we’ve gone for hers (I’ve spent over 25 years in South America by choice, she was
somewhat homesick). As for timing, it made a mountain of sense to get here before #2 was
born or we got too late into the pregnancy. So December 2023 it was and, with the move
largely done, we now live in the town where my partner was born and raised, on the coast not
far from Caracas and just a few clicks from her parents and brothers, not to mention her
extended family and old friend network. That’s the whole story, there’s no nefarious secret
subtext, this move is motivated by the desire to see
two kids grow up with family around them and what’s
more, being a coastal city means we got the option of
a place with a sea view. Here’s a photo (right) from
my new desk (5th floor apartment) and yes, we still
need to buy some curtains, thanks for reminding me.
2) This move will not affect the normal production of
The IKN Weekly. Having been briefed on Venezuela by
people who know the place (e.g. family, trusted
voices, friends) and now experiencing it for the last
three weeks or so, for sure it has its idiosyncrasies like
any other country but it’s far from the development
wasteland that English language press make it out to
be. There are stocked supermarkets, good healthcare
facilities (important for our near future), all mod cons
available, the people are friendly, the internet works, the beaches are clean, the food is good
and the coffee is excellent, there’s no greater or lesser crime threat than anywhere else on the
continent and overall, it’s akin to the average life in your actual provincial town in Peru,
Argentina, Colombia or anywhere else you might want to mention on the continent outside the
biggest metropolises. There are differences (of course), Caracas itself is nobody’s idea of an
architectural jewel and I’m yet to delve into the infamous bureaucracy that runs the show but,
by and large, you can tell the country of Venezuela is on the mend ever since the US Dollar
became de facto currency. Except, perhaps, for the percentage of used cars on the roads. As
for the local politics, that’s something that will not be mentioned on these pages and, as
Venezuela has virtually zero investment opportunities in listed miners, that shouldn’t affect the
work done here. Long story short, The IKN Weekly will continue as before and always.
Final small point: This isn’t a subject that’s going to get mention in the public sphere if possible
(e.g. my Twitter account) but I believe in transparency to those who provide bread for my
table, so you get to read it here. Final finally; this is as far as we go, but there are no secrets so
if anyone is interested in knowing more about my new country of residence and have
questions, be they professional or personal, feel free to mail in. And that’s the end of that, time
to do some real work.
Gold is good but not great
We’ll get to my high level thought on gold and what to expect from the metal in 2024 in a
moment, first some background on the main driver of the metal (like it or not), the ongoing US
macro newsflow. This time last weekend we mentioned in passing the forecast for December
US BLS Employment Report, which at +158k NFP jobs and unemployment rate of 3.8% was
soundly beaten by the Friday announcement:
The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs last month while the unemployment rate held
at 3.7%, the Labor Department said on Friday.
For sure, naysayers pointed to the downward revisions for October and November, that’s fair
enough but the data are the data and this beat again underscored the resilience in the US
3

economy and even had Janet Yellen hitting the airwaves to claim that the US economy had
achieved the desired “soft landing” and all was now good. That certainly smacked of the latest
version of GW Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” moment and those with memories were soon
making the obvious correlation (1):
On to the week ahead and we’ll get more key data on the US economy and clues on the Fed’s
next move when on Thursday (2) we get the (2) “…Consumer Price Index for December from
the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The
consensus is for CPI to be up 3.2% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.9% YoY.” So says
Calculated Risk, we also get PPI Friday and once those are in, the market will have another
piece in the puzzle.
Our CPI tracker chart (right) shows the apparent success of Fed policy in reeling in inflation and
while the forecast is for +3.2% this week, I’ve left the +3.5% bar for December that’s been
there all year, a reminder of the target set by those nice Fed people at the start of 2023, a
forecast that got plenty of pushback at the
time. As that’s almost certain to be beaten and US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
3.2% now the forecast median, it’s fair to day
that if we filter out the constant Fed jawbone
and focus on policy moves alone, 2024 will see
rate cuts and the only questions remaining are “from when” and “how many”.
With the macro scene covers, time to switch
gears for a hot take on gold and what to expect
from the monetary metal in 2024. Considering
the above and the way the US economy is
shaping up, then considering the way the US Presidential election is likely to dominate the
narrative this year, my thoughts on gold prices aren’t driven my the macro data as such and
more by the expectations they create. While it’s up for debate as to whether the Fed starts
cutting, at what point and how deeply, what we do have is a world that’s laser focused on the
US economy and its currency and no matter whether the doves or the hawks eventually “win”
the argument (for want of a better word), what we seem to have these days is a market that’s
largely under control. That suits the Fed, its suits the status quo and if true, would mean a
relatively stable financial ride through a year that offers plenty of rough waters in other areas
(politics, world conflicts, etc). Or to it put another way, we’re now debating the tenths on
market data such as unemployment and
inflation, rather than the round numbers. This
also shows in the disdain in the big money
market world for gold bullion, as seen in our
ongoing GLD inventory tracker charts: Physical
holdings took another leg down last week and
we’re back to 870mt in vault (right), while the
Inventory/Price ratio at GLD over the longer term
shows the chronic decline and increasing lack of
4
4.1 7.1
6.2 2.4
0.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 0.7 5.7 9.7 5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8 7.7 1.7 5.6 4.6 0.6 0.5 9.4
0.4 0.3 2.3 7.3 7.3
2.3 1.3 5.3
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0 3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
source: US BLS
GLD gold holdings, 2023 YTD (metric tonnes)
960
950
940
930
920
910
900
890
880
870
860
850
840
32/1/3 32/1/31 32/1/32 32/2/2 32/2/21 32/2/22 32/3/4 32/3/41 32/3/42 32/4/3 32/4/31 32/4/32 32/5/3 32/5/31 32/5/32 32/6/2 32/6/21 32/6/22 32/7/2 32/7/21 32/7/22 32/8/1 32/8/11 32/8/12 32/8/13 32/9/01 32/9/02 32/9/03 32/01/01 32/01/02 32/01/03 32/11/9 32/11/91 32/11/92 32/21/9 32/21/91 32/21/92
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

interest for holding gold. For sure Central Banks around the world are buying up physical and
I’m not saying there’s no demand or market for gold (there clearly is, prices are above
U$2,000/ozs for good reasons) but the rationale on Wall St is different; as long as they see the
potential to take their US Dollars and put them to work into yield bearing investments (bonds,
stocks or whatever else), the collective isn’t going to look toward the gold safe haven.
9.00 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.50
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
5
61/4/1 61/13/3 61/42/6 61/02/9 61/41/21 71/41/3 71/8/6 71/1/9 71/82/11 81/62/2 81/22/5 81/61/8 81/9/11 91/7/2 91/6/5 91/13/7 91/42/01 02/22/1 02/71/4 02/41/7 02/7/01 12/4/1 12/13/3 12/32/6 12/71/9 12/31/21 22/01/3 22/6/6 22/13/8 22/52/11 32/32/2 32/71/5 32/41/8 32/7/11
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
That’s what we’re seeing here, in these charts and in the appreciation in gold. Yes it’s going up
and I believe we’ll continue to see that happen, but unless and until those charts show a clear
sea change in direction that denotes the world’s financial instos and houses are moving out of
profit/yield chasing opportunities and into boring old gold to protect their wealth, we’re not
going to se the type of rocket upmove that so many in the pro-gold/pro-precious metals
community so regularly and vociferously call. Or put in simple terms, I expect gold to keep
climbing but not to do anything that makes world headlines. However, if those tracking charts
above detect a break in that long-term downtrend in gold sentiment, all bets are off and we
may just see Wall St join the Central Bank mavens in a desire to stock up on gold and if that
happens, goldbug dreams may still come true. Don’t bet on it, though. In the meantime, the PM
mining companies should improve as inflation slacks off and their profit margins improve and as
that’s the place we look to for real alpha returns, that would suit the junior sector just fine.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v): A pre-merger buying opportunity
It’s long-established that your author prefers trades over a reasonable time period and normally
sets out to find value investment opportunities that need time (and patience) to mature.
Preferred timelines normally run to at least a year, price targets aim at solid upsides to match
the risk of holding juniors through time, a strategy that seeks to minimize the influence of
metals prices on this most volatile of sectors and allow value propositions to come to the fore.
That’s the way with all our main trades, with current longs in Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to) and even the distressed Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) (now showing some life) all typify
the plan and the mindset. However, recent times have hit a period in which we’ve preferred
running more trades over the near-term, with trade strategies of holding for just a few months
(or even weeks ) and more modest price targets to go with them. Examples of this recent
fashion include Fortuna Silver (FSM) and Equinox Gold (EQX), companies that may eventually
pay the longer-term holder but we opened long positions specifically to take advantage of a
perceived value advantage over the near-term.
That’s a long-winded paragraph in third person to frame today’s note, it’s now time to cut to
the chase and that’s no joke, as aside from the above paragraph I’ve radically altered today’s
note (and thrown out a sizeable amount of charts, data and information that I now consider
superfluous to the trade set-up. The original plan was to run the numbers on Curipamba, look
at the financial background of Adventus and even make a few comparisons to its minority

partner on the project, Salazar Resources (SRL.v). If things progress and if there’s reason to do
so, I may return to a straight numbercrunch on ADZN and its project at a later date but this
trade set-up is far more about a re-rate of the present story. Therefore, I plan to buy a trading
position in Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v) this coming week to come, as due to specific
circumstances that are all coming to a head at this time, there’s an opportunity to make some
money in what I believe will be a reasonably quick turnaround trade, no matter what might
happen to the company, its project or even the mining sector of its host company in the months
or years to come.
ADZN.v is a company and story that’s been on my radar for what seems like forever (and SRL
even longer than that, as it trod water on its assets for many years). At no point until now has
ADZN appealed as a trade even when it came out with the strong economics in its updated
Feasibility Study in 2021 and, on considering
the comparative price chart of the two stocks
compared with copper stocks (COPX proxy),
gold (GLD proxy) and the PM stocks in
general (GDX proxy), “avoid this mess” has
turned out to be the correct call (right). This
is a polymetallic story, after all. As you can
probably make out, ADZN (and SRL) started
to bifurcate from the rest of the market
around the start of 2022, failed to hold on as
2022 became 2023 and went from bad to
worse through last year. The main reason is
the political risk suffered by Ecuador-exposed
stocks in recent years, we’re a far cry away
from the times when it was picking up “Best
Mining Country” or “Best New Jurisdiction” awards at the gala dinners in London or Toronto.
That is why Curipamba has been a clear “avoid” all these years and therefore, my decision to
buy AZDN now for a trade must be connected to a change in the political and social risk profile
at the project and in the country. This is why I’ve almost completely re-written today’s main
Fundies note and got the message down to its essence. The trade set-up is on the likely re-rate
on CSR/ESG risk and due to three recent developments at the micro and macro level:
 A new President
 An advance in the permitting track
 A smart and market-friendly merger
We now consider these key items:
1) A new President: The arrival of Daniel Noboa as President of Ecuador: While previous
incumbent Guillermo Lasso was strongly in favour of the development of the mining sector in
the country and made enough specific comments about Curiplamba/El Domo as well, he didn’t
have the political capital to combat the hardened opposition against him and his government.
In the realm of mining, which was spearheaded by CONAIE, the umbrella group from Ecuador’
indigenous organizations and communities that has grown in stature and political power in the
last five years.
We covered the decline and fall of the Lasso presidency fairly closely in 2022 and particularly
2023, so no blow-by-blow here today. Instead we cut to the result of his decision to invoke the
“crossfire death” law that dissolved both the contentious National Assembly (Congress) and his
own presidency, i.e. the arrival of Daniel Noboa as the new President} of Ecuador. Now into his
third month at the helm of his shortened tenure (he completes the Lasso period, with new
elections scheduled for 2026), Noboa is enjoying an extended honeymoon period with the
population and that means the opposition groups, e.g. CONAIE, have left him alone to date.
Regarding mining he’s said very little, but on the other hand he hasn’t needed to because of the
reasons we’ll see below. However, we should note that despite his own carefully cultivated
image of a man of the people and auto-denominated centre-left political stance (he’s not},
Noboa is an adherent to orthodox free market economics and is the hier to one of the biggest
6

fortunes in the country, that of his father Álvaro Noboa. Part of his financial background also
includes the Nobis investment arm of his family’s fortune and they happen to be minority
shareholders in the Curipamba/El Domo project. To say President Noboa has a vested interest
in seeing the mining industry develop in Ecuador is an understatement but to date, he’s centred
his presidency on the burning questions of law and order, rather than economic growth.
The bottom line: The arrival of Noboa as President has taken the pressure off those who would
move mining forward and, along with the next item, has loosened the logjam that developed in
the sector during the Lasso period.
2) An advance in the permitting track: However, what Guillermo Lasso did do before
leaving office was to enact laws by executive order, with one of those facilitating the award of
Environmental Impact Permits (EIA) for mining companies. The decree was challenged in the
courts by the anti-mining lobby and successfully too, as we reported in IKN757, November 19th
2023:
“The so-called “Decree 754” was found to be unconstitutional and will have to
be replaced by new laws passed by the incoming Congress.”
However, the courts also ruled that despite being unconstitutional, the law would remain in
place until such time as the new Congress passed laws to supersede it. That’s an important
point and as such, ADZN reacted to the news with its own NR at the time. Here’s an extract:
This decision by the Court allows over 170 projects to resume their respective
Consultation processes by proceeding under the terms the Decree.
And at that, I made a mistake by stating this IKN757 at the time:
Environmental permits cannot be awarded and Prior Consultancy hearings cannot be
carried out.
Not until a new law is passed, that is. So ADZN/SRL may be able to get their teams
back on the ground and get on with necessary grassroots CSR, but there are no
permits coming out of Ecuador.
Mea culpa, I got my information wrong. In fact it was half right, because until the new law is
passed Environmental permits cannot be awarded and Prior Consultancy hearings cannot be
carried out in regions deemed as indigenous, but as a matter of fact the Curipamba/El Domo
zone, located near the town of Las Navas, is not one of those areas so being “half right” was
arguably even worse than being totally wrong. Las Navas (and therefore Curpamba/El Domo) is
a region of Ecuador populated by general population and while rural, as well as semi-tropical
and verdant, is not one of the protected area such as the one in which Solaris at Warintza
operates.
What does all that mean? It means AZDN could announce this at the end of last month (4a):
TORONTO, Dec. 27, 2023 /CNW/ - Adventus Mining Corporation ("Adventus") (TSXV:
ADZN) (OTCQX: ADVZF) and Salazar Resources Limited ("Salazar") (TSX-V: SRL)
(OTCQB: SRLZF) (collectively the "Participants") are pleased to announce that the
Ministry of Environment, Water, and Ecological Transition of Ecuador ("MAATE") has
completed the final consultation phase of the environmental consultation process for
the El Domo - Curipamba project in central Ecuador (the "Project"), on December 15,
2023.
As at last month, ADZN along with its partners have completed the Public Consultancy phase of
its EIA permitting track and that’s no small thing. At this point, we should note that the long-
standing opposition to this project has not suddenly disappeared into thin air and there’s a clue
to what’s happened in the AZDN NR:
Following the presentation of the updated environmental management plan, the
community participants deliberated and then voted with 98% of people from the direct
areas of influence of the Project voting in favour of issuing the environmental license
for the Project.
The standard strategy used by Canadian mining companies in LatAm is “divide and conquer”,
done by getting the community nearest to your project onside (jobs benefits etc) and ignoring
7

the protest of the wider community area, officially designated outside the “direct area of
influence” but still the same local culture or social grouping. Here, seeing AZDN give us a
percentage total of votes (rather than the absolute number count, which will be small) from the
“direct areas” around Curipamba signals that they have complied with the letter of a law that
suits a national pro-mining government and the company, but ignores (once again) the
demands of w wider community that’s long been dead set against the project. It’s a recipe for
protests and problems in the future, but by then we believe ADZN and the JV group will have
its paperwork in-hand and that counts as important; it’s way easier to stop a miner from getting
an EIA than to get it rescinded later. That “law versus justice” difference makes this trade more
attractive in the near-term, as an EIA green light is bound to be applauded by the outside world
and bring the story its re-rate, while also avoiding any possible problems from protests or
mounting post facto opposition against the EIA permit award.
To round this section off, with the final environmental consultation done and the apparent
approval of locals in-hand, Curipamba/El Domo is now a shoo-in to get its environmental impact
permit approval and that will be a real feather in its cap. The timing framework for the
announcement is “the first half of 2024” but there are sure to be vested interests to get this
done sooner, rather than later, not least because the current rules will only apply as long as the
National Assembly doesn’t pass new laws and they are likely to be more stringent than the
current criteria is get your EIA passed. With the government looking for a win on mining, the
President’s own family as investors and while Noboa enjoys his extended honeymoon period
that protects him from the type of debilitating protests that did for Lasso before him, all signs
are that AZDN is on the cusp of getting environmental approval for its project and will enjoy a
significant re-rate at the same time.
And all this is happening at the same time as another very significant development:
3) A smart and market-friendly merger: Please see the company website (3) for more
details on the deal, plus the latest corporate presentation (4) offers a reasonable high-level
overview of the details and rationale, but on Novemner 21st Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v)
and Luminex Resources (LR.v) announced this:
Adventus and Luminex Announce Merger
to Create a Growth-Focused Copper-Gold Company in Ecuador
Luminex is one of the minor arms of the Ross Beaty mining empire and was spun out of
another of his vehicles, Lumina, a few years previously. It also works in Ecuador and has made
a few decent moves in 2023 itself, but there are still plenty of reasons why this merger makes
sense. As always the top one is money:
This three year chart shows the way ADZN and LR have declined in relative lockstep over the
last three years (and if you’d like to check, the pattern holds up on the five year chart, too).
Perhaps not so much of a surprise, considering the other similarities in their stories and the way
Ecuador as a destination first lost favoritism and most recently has been ignored by a mining
world that has (finally!) worked out that community opposition can and often does kill projects.
However, there are other similarities as well, such as relative size (the newco will be 69%
8

ADZN, 31% LR) and also the way in which LR has recently improved its standing with its own
local community. Its issues around its flagship Condor project are different, but in 2023 the
company came to several agreements with the people that really matter in its case, i.e. the
artisan/informal mining community that works vein systems on and around its concession and
project zone. The deal struck means the junior and the locala that matter are on the same page
these days and it was a smart agreement, allowing LR better access and acceptance in the area
But what matters now is the deal to merge the two companies, which importantly is set to close
this month. This screenshot from the latest corporate presentation is basic, but covers the main
point well enough for our needs:
Note that the pro forma market cap laid out above assumes an ADZN that’s priced at around
C$0.37, which may have been possible in late November but its C$0.27 share price as at this
weekend puts the pro-forma market cap at C$101.9m and the EV at C$70m. For that, you’re
getting a lot of newco, including a sizeable treasury and commitments from large financier
groups such as Wheaton and Altius to fund most of the capex for the Curipamba mine (set at
U$248m in 2021, we should assume something around U$300m these days). It’s at this point in
my original note for today’s issue that we delved into the numbers and mechanics of the newco
and what its share price might achieve under the new newco structure, assuming some extra
share dilution as New ADZN raises some more capital, then eventually buys out the 13% (real
terms) minority partner, Salazar. We could also consider whether buying SRL would be the
better alternative, as they’d presumably hold out for a premium price before the 100%
ownership entity were created.
Instead we move to the main driver near-term value for this deal, as the plan is to trade ADZN
over the near-term and let others worry about close calculations of NPV/share and relative book
values as the project moves toward and then through construction. This deal makes a lot of
sense because it brings the Lumina Group, Ross Beaty and all, into a project that will soon be
all-but fully permitted and would need all the best political will to get past the inevitable protest
pushback in its future. This larger entity not only provides the market cap heft to better
navigate the development period, but it also improves its political standing at a national and
local level. Lumina also brings a decent and improving flagship of its own to the table in the
Condor Gold project, but there’s no doubt as to which project becomes a mine first and the
success or failure of our proposed trade rests squarely on Curipamba/El Domo.
With the deal slated to close this month of January, the somewhat enforced quiet period around
the company and this project will come to an end soon. Indeed, knowing this group and its way
of working, we should expect plenty of noise coming from New ADZN in the near future and
9

when that EIA permit is released, the company will have even more to shout about and all to
the rolodex of market voices that seems to hang onto every word that comes out of Ross
Beaty’s mouth.
Discussion and conclusion
While these shares are clearly cheap compared to the price they’d fetch with Curipamba in
production and Condor advancing to become its second working mine, this is not a “value
investment trade”, it’s a strategy trade base don current circumstance that looks to take
advantage of a relative lull in the ADZN story that is now, compared to the storm that’s about
to hit once the merger is done and the EIA permits are in-hand (or nearly so). What we see in
ADZN is a clear window of opportunity and a company that’s getting its main ducks in line.
Within the space of the last few months we have seen:
 A new government arrive in Ecuador that has allowed mining the political space it
needs, at least in the near term, to advance its cause
 A project that has the key community approval stage of its EIA process now
complete, which means it’s on the verge of being permitted by the national
government
 A merger that makes a lot of sense and will bring both financial and
political/lobbying gravitas to ADZN
The current price at 27c is well below the pro forma of this deal, making it a clear bargain even
before the inevitable marketing push begins once it closes and New Adventus is created. All this
adds up to the likelihood of ADZN rising in the near future on a risk re-rate, no matter what
might happen to it or to its project further down the line. Also, with a deliberate and distinct
lack of number crunching and price prognostications in today’s note, you can rest assured this
is not going to morph into a “Well yes, but let’s hold a while longer and see” trade, the abject
error I made when deciding to wait around on the SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L) trade when
Ecuador’s then-President Guillermo Lasso pulled the political rug from under us early last year.
Instead, this ADZN trade plan is to buy now, look for the sequence eof catalysts to come into
place, ride up the promo and marketing push that’s in the wings (perhaps around PDAC) as well
as the pop it gets once the government of Ecuador approves its EIA, which is now merely a
matter of time now the company has surmounted (sotto voce style) the most contentious
barrier.
I am a buyer of Adventus Mining Corp (ADZN.v) shares in the week to come and plan to sell
them back to the market once they become a popular story, a few weeks from now. Also,
please be clear that win/lose/draw, this trade is near-term focused and won’t fret too much
about forward cash flow projections, not this time around at least. It won’t be open any longer
than 1q24, that is to say the time limit is strict and runs out on March 31st, but may last a lot
less time than that. With ADZN, we buy today while nobody is looking, we sell once the merger
is done and the newco is getting its promo,. Its EIA is in-hand and the crowd writes up the
latest chaprter of the “Beaty Is Genius” story.
Stocks to Follow
The first week of 2024 was a mixed bag, but considering that most metals lost ground (e.g.
GLD gold proxy down 0.95%), the main producers’ ETF GDX dropped by 4.0% and the GDXJ
juniors’ ETF was down 5.1% it could have been a lot worse and thanks to one specific holding,
my personal portfolio managed to return a paper profit in dollar terms. Of our 18 charges, we
saw 10 losers (FSM, EQX, AR.to, CTGO, SOLG.to, RIO.v, ALDE.v, MIRL.cse, MARI.to, PAU.cse)
which include big percentage losses taken by Minera IRL (MIRL.cse down 20.0%), Contango
ORE (CTGO down 13.6%), Argonaut Gold (AR.to down 12.8%), SolGold (SOLG.to down 11.4%)
and let’s add Marimaca (MARI.to down 9.3%) to the heavy loss list, as it nearly dropped by
double figures as well. Meanwhile four stocks were unchanged on the week (NCAU.v, SOMA.v,
PGZ.v, ADZN.v) and that leaves just four winners (MAI.v, ARG.to, ERO.to, MENE.v) but despite
10

the negative headcount, the big move put in by Minera Alamos (MAI.v up 14.1%) covered
many sins and was aided and abetted by the second largest position in my personal port, the
small win registered by Amerigo Resources (ARG.to).
We currently have 18 open positions on our list including the open stocks carrying some of my
cash and the Watch List positions (in which I hold no shares as yet). Seven are in the green,
two are UNCH, nine red inks of shame.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.365 73.8% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold? C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.41 3.7% Thinking about selling again
Fortuna Silver FSM hold U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.65 25.0% Finally moved, still want flip
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.58 2.7% Leverage trade at U$2k/oz Au
Argonaut Gold AR.to SPEC BUY C$0.42 17-Dec-23 C$0.41 -2.4% Near-term, want quick profit
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$15.65 -16.3% FY24 production, now moving
SolGold SOLG.to hold C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.155 -41.5% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.14 -31.7% Showing signs of life
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.375 -54.8% Permit approved, rebounding
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.85 18.1% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.11 -14.8% Likely buy,cheap entry showing
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$21.93 15.8% High quality Cu prod, cheap
Soma Gold SOMA.v WATCH C$0.66 26-Nov-23 C$0.61 -7.6% small gold prod in Colombia
Pan Global Cop PGZ.v WATCH C$0.23 31-Dec-23 C$0.23 0.0% tinycap Cu in Spain
Adventus Mining ADZN.v WATCH C$0.27 31-Dec-23 C$0.27 0.0% Ecuador permit re-rate trade?
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.09 5.9% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.305 -51.6% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2024 date closed close price
none as yet
2015 to 2023 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): THINKING OF SELLING AGAIN. I’m again considering
cashing in, taking the near-UNCH overall result on this trade (excluding 14c of welcome cash
dividends) and moving the cash either to portfolio treasury or at least some into a copper
exploreco with more leverage to the metal. ARG performed well last week and touched C$1.44
even as copper floundered, the close a reasonable one as well.
If copper continues to weaken, ARG is going to feel the pinch as we already know that
U$3.80/lb for the metal is an inflexion point for this equity, so a lot depends on how copper
performs in the week ahead. I know that “cashing in your winners and letting the losers run” is
the way suckers run their portfolios and it would be easy to accuse me of doing that by selling
ARG this month. I’d probably plead guilty too, but with mitigation that this is still a big position
and the cash a sale would generate for the portfolio treasury would be enough to re-position
and fund the more gold-centric trades I have in mind, leaving money to spare for any re-entry
into the copper space if the metal rebounds. Still considering it and next weekend may bring a
proactive decision, all depends on the copper price action.
11

Soma Gold (SOMA.v): This week SOMA was one of the very first gold producers to announce
its 4q23 production numbers in this NR (5) dated January 3rd, but along with the upbeat
“record production” headline there were a few hidden negatives so let’s parse the text to check
them out:
January 3, 2024, Vancouver, British Columbia – Soma Gold Corp. (TSXV: SOMA)
(WKN: A2P4DU) (OTC: SMAGF) (the “Company” or “Soma”) is pleased to announce
2023 AuEq production of 32,340 ounces at its el Bagre Gold Complex.
That’s the first one, as once we subtract the first three quarters from that annual given total we
get this:
SOMA.v: AuEq production, per qtr
12
0711 3434 5234 9334
0673
1305 1074 5005
7366
2845 9665
8276
8978 3139
1057
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
source: company filings
At 7,501oz, Q4 turned out to be significantly lower than the previous two quarters and while
our house best guess of 9,000oz may have been a little too optimistic, that’s a miss compared
to nearly all expectations. We get reasons for the miss below, but first…
The Company achieved 96.5% of the 2023 forecasted production of 33,500 AuEq
ounces, a 40% increase over the previous year’s production.
In other words, they missed on the annual guidance. As for the reasons, we are then told this:
The deviation from anticipated production levels was due to two unscheduled and
temporary suspensions during the year. The first, a two-week suspension in March
2023, was a result of labor unrest in the region. The second, in Q4, was due to a
maintenance issue with the primary ball mill at the el Bagre Gold Complex. Following a
routine inspection, excessive wear was identified, prompting a temporary repair. When
operations resumed, the mill was run at a slightly reduced rate.
The risk of a small mining company with just one effective operation (i.e. one mill) is always
there, they hit a roadbump and it takes a chunk out of any given quarter. There’s nothing
nefarious going on here, but this is mining and stuff happens. We’re then reminded that…
The shutdown also caused a temporary minor reduction in yield, with a permanent
repair scheduled for the March 2024 maintenance shutdown.
…1q24 won’t be a full quarter, as they have a scheduled mill shutdown for maintenance as part
of this current quarter. The final semi-negative then came along:
The Company anticipates the production of an additional 750 – 1,000 ounces per
month from the el Limon mill, which is scheduled to restart production in H1 of 2024.
That last phrase, “…in H1 of 2024”, means Q2 and therefore the Limon mill’s restart has been
knocked back a quarter from previous estimates.
SOMA.v: Avg head grade, per qtr
Putting that all together, it’s worth recalling that ran a
head grade higher than its resource average 6.9 g/t
during 2q23 and 3q23, so the new Q4 figures also
suggest that head grade has likely returned to the median (as it eventually should, of course). Put that
together with 1) the scheduled March shutdown and
2) the high likelihood that the Limon mine won’t be
71.4 20.4 56.4 9.4 64.4 80.5 84.4 13.4 74.5 54.6 61.6 89.6 68.7 64.8
10
9
8
7
6
5 4 3
2
1
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
source: company filings
llim
ta uA t/g

online until 2q24 and it all adds up to another okay-not-great quarter in the pipeline for SOMA
in 1q24. As such, this new information gives us extra reason to wait on any eventual entry into
the stock and keep it on the Watch List, looking for a cheaper price with which to open.
In trading, SOMA did pretty well to remain UNCH on the week. If I’m going to bite, I’d need
some sort of price in the 50s and that didn’t show.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): We got one of those “Hi we’re here” NRs from PGZ to start
the year (6), giving a round-up of their (self-appointed) achievements and an overview of what
they plan to do in 2024. One of the things not on the list is how PGZ stock moved from 45c in
January to its level today, but they probably decided that wasn’t a highlight. Then again, if it
weren’t 23c this weekend I wouldn’t be so interested.
The review is fine, but the most interesting section comes at the bottom when the company
sets out its potential catalysts going forward. Here are the bullet points, as per the NR:
Catalysts for 2024-2025 include:
 Drillhole results from ongoing exploration drilling at La Romana and results for step-out
drilling at the Cañada Honda discovery
 Gaining surface access to the highly prospective Bravo gravity target (less than 2km along
trend east of La Romana) for exploration
 Tin metallurgical test results and variability test results on the La Romana mineralization
 Ongoing exploration results and drilling on new targets
 Maiden NI 43-101 compliant Mineral Resource Estimate for La Romana and Preliminary
Economic Assessment
All good and reasonable and it’s always useful to have
this type of ballpark guidance from an exploreco, but
the one that stands out is the final note in which we get
first print on when to expect 43-101 compliant reports
from Escacena (and “2024-2025” obviously means
2025). As for trading last week, this 10-day chart (right)
shows that while last week’s 23c price held, there was
very thin volume to close the week and scant interest at
these prices, for my money (literally) there’s no need to
pay 23c in this current market. Something under 20c
should be available to those who want it, patience
applied and copper-willing.
Finally, the company also showed up in a YouTube Crux Investor piece this weekend (7), so
you might want to check that out. CEO Tim Moody basically gave an expanded resume of last
week’s NR, but getting it from the horse’s mouth is not a negative.
Adventus Mining (ADZN.v): We do plenty on ADZN above today, here we mention the price
action, or perhaps inaction because after a brisk day one, trading in ADZN got rather thin and
the early week pop to 28.5c disappeared into small sales. This isn’t a bad thing of course, as it
suggests its story is still under the radar despite the pending close of the fusion with Luminex.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): That moment when you breathe a sigh of relief and stop fretting
about whether to partially sell your Top Pick. After what
seems like forever, MAI finally made a move and on
decent volume too, with total volume on Thursday and
Friday of over 2m shares once you combine the TSXV
ticker (MAI.v) and the US OTC ticker (MAIFF) trades. A
very welcome move in the stock and against the
prevailing tide for gold and junior stocks, too. }
As for possible reasons for the sudden interest, please
see Regional Politics, below.
13

Argonaut Gold (AR.to): Last week we started with “So far so good”, this week we note with
a sigh that I suspected I was overpaying at 42c. Sure enough, the bottom fell out of AR last
week when gold went South and the producer sector followed suit, the speculative cash looking
for a quick profit (e.g. just like mine) quick to fold.
We’re still looking for the most obvious near-term catalyst to show, i.e. a NR with a Q4
preliminary production number (and perhaps other details from Q4), though we stress that
even though AR has been more promotional in the last few months and eager to inform on how
the ramp up is going at Magino, it’s not a guarantee we’ll get that information as in previous
quarters (bar 4q22), AR has waited until the filing of its financials to publish its production
numbers. Still, I think it’s likely we’ll get a Q4 production report and as well as the key Magino
data, eyes will be on the production and sales out of a Florida Canyon that’s shown recent
improvement.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): As for where I may assign copper exposure if I make that sell
call on ARG, look no further than this stock. Yes for sure there are other options such as the
smallfry Pan Global (PGZ.v) or bigboy Ero Copper (ERO.to) to name but two Cu stocks I have
my eye on, but the recent drop in MARI shares offers an entry point we haven’t seen since
early last year and the right price to buy with a longer-term outlook that’s able to hold through
MARI’s 2024, the year of “heavy lifting” and infill drilling to bring the project to bankable status.
This may be why MARI is now out of fashion and that’s the way I normally like my quality
developer plays. This is a prime example of why I’ve grown to like the relatively new “Watch
List” section of the Stocks to Follow list, I’d rather keep a close eye on MARI (and the others)
this way than buy a first tranche position and then find myself averaging down when the “real
opportunity” price comes along. MARI at close to C$3 should appeal to anyone who believes in
the long-term copper bull narrative (and I’m very much in
that group).
Contango ORE (CTGO): It only takes one medium sized
seller to tank a thinly traded stock no matter how
expensive the shares price or the dollar values being
moved and we saw that last week at CTGO. However and
to reiterate, the early-stage mining and ore hauling
continues despite new media attention, via this report (8)
that went over the same issues and concerns we’ve seen
from the local communities around Manh Choh for the last
few months (just for a more generalist audience).
Would I be a buyer at this price if I weren’t in already?
That’s a resounding “yes”.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): Down by a semi-chunky percentage
amount on the week, but RIO.v is still trading in its new
range and reasonably well, too. Any news on its financing
package in Q1 will be a catalyst.
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): It went down into the
AGM, it rallied end year and now it’s given back nearly all
those recent gains. Frustrating is the least one can say
and at some point I know I’m going to throw in the towel on this losing trade. Ugh, and here I
am thinking hard about buying into another Ecuador story. Shoot me now.
The Copper Basket
After one weeks of 2024, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 2.87% to level stakes:
14

company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Minerals NGEX.v 7.16 186.824 1457.23 7.80 8.9%
2 Solaris Res SLS.to 4.13 150.74 622.56 4.13 0.0%
3 Los Andes LA.v 11.80 29.53 341.37 11.56 -2.0%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.43 93.11 289.57 3.11 -9.3%
5 Hercules Silver BIG.v 1.38 231 191.73 0.83 -39.9%
6 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.75 109.17 186.68 1.71 -2.3%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.89 169.819 144.35 0.85 -4.5%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.63 175.97 107.34 0.61 -3.2%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.375 222.86 96.94 0.435 16.0%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.61 61.885 38.37 0.62 1.6%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 0.58 63.93 33.88 0.53 -8.6%
12 American Eagle AE.v 0.26 108.87 29.94 0.275 5.8%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.12 173.7 20.84 0.12 0.0%
14 Camino Min COR.v 0.07 206.66 18.60 0.09 28.6%
15 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.18 106.25 18.06 0.17 -5.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -2.87%
The Copper complex had a negative start to the year as the underlying metal continued to fade
and our the juniors explorecos were hit as much as the bigger companies, with some special
sauce added to a couple of companies. There were five winners (NGEX.v, OCO.v, CCCM.v, AE.v,
COR.v), two unchanged stocks (SLS.to, QCCU.v) and eight losers (the others) and plenty of
bigger movers in the bunch, as well. Big winners included Camino (COR.v up 28.6%), Oroco
(OCO.v up 16.0%) and NGEx (NGEX.v up 8.9%) also did well, while big losers were led by
Hercules Silver (BIG.v down 39.9%) and followed by Marimaca Copper (MARI.to down 9.3%)
and Kodiak (KDK.v down 8.6%).
As for copper-the-metal, it didn’t get the Santa Rally memo as it’s been downhill since the
Christmas break came to an end. This ten-day chart of our preferred copper price tracker, the
Comex near-dated futures contract with liquid volume and open interest, also has a red line
added by my hand to show where 2024 began and news reactions aside, it’s been one-way
traffic so far. The most interesting day of the ten on display is also the last one, as Friday’s jobs
numbers and ensuing Fedwatchers’ reactions saw copper first rally on a quick spike to
U$3.86/lb (or so, I also saw a U$3.85/lb spot price top), a move that held for about a minute
before the sellers turned up again and pushed copper to its lowest close since December 13th.
However and as pointed out in the last couple of weeks,
the longer-term uptrend is still in place so pick and choose
your technical chart signals to suit your own taste. This
smaller chart of the same Comex contract over the last six
months shows the (widening) channel is still intact…just.
15

Next week may provide some clarity on what copper is going to do in the quiet buyers’ period
before Chinese New Year (or that’s now “Lunar New Year”, apparently I shouldn’t insult other
countries neighbouring China that use the same system). Anyway, we should all remember that
the flurry of end-user buying is now at an end and when SHFE and LME warehouse inventories
start climbing, the headlines are non-news.
As for the cause of the copper price
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
weakness, for sure the USD rally played
54
its part and the world watches for clues
53
on the Fed’s next move and places its
52
under/over bets accordingly, but the
51
fundies aren’t all that great at the
50
moment, either. We track the China PMI
49
dataset to take the pulse of its 48
manufacturing motor (i.e. where that 47
copper gets used) and we got the 46
December reading last week, a mediocre
49.0 that shows the continued slow
decline seen since September (and is a
mile away from the stimulus pop we saw around the start of 2023). However, please note that
the Y-axis on this chart is cut down, done to show the contrast in monthly numbers (and not to
instigate Chart Crime).
Here’s how Reuters reported the number, with suitable quote from a guy in a sharp suit (9):
China’s manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in December and
weakened more than expected, clouding the outlook for the country’s economic
recovery. Its official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from
49.4 the previous month.
“We have seen weakness in base metals this year. Recovery in China still looks patchy
with the latest PMI data disappointing,” said Dan Smith, head of research at
Amalgamated Metal Trading.
That’s enough of that, we move on to our regular weekly check on world copper inventories
with data as usual collated from Cochilco:
 Copper’s inventory year started quietly, with an overall aggregate drawdown of 1,426
metric tonnes (mt) over the three official futures systems, the total on Friday evening
213,843mt.
 A small net add at the Shanghai SHFE warehouses, the total up 2,225mt to finish the
week at 33,130mt. That’s still very low and we’re now about to see the total move up
(assuming the normal stock cycle), the question are when and by how much.
 The LME saw its total drop by 4,125mt to close at 163,175mt, with all that tonnage
accounted by an outflow in its New Orleans warehouses.
 The Comex system added 474 tonnes to close at 17,538mt. No biggie.
The dedicated SHFE chart rolls on and remains at these historic lows. No changes here this
week, but the uptick is bound to begin soon.
16
1202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 3202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
source: China PMI
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

Hercules Silver (BIG.v): The weeks’ main copper story and biggest mover, though the
direction of its move was….let’s call it “suboptimal”:
First up, here’s how last week’s intro note finished, in order to make my own position and
opinion clear:
At its current C$300m market cap, BIG has run from nowhere and become an
expensive stock, but that’s what explorecos do on occasion. We’ll follow its fate in
2024 and see whether expectations are overdone, or whether they can outline a real
new world class copper porphyry and leave the current valuation in the dust. For what
it’s worth, I err to the skeptical side on this trade and wouldn’t risk any of my personal
capital at this price, but wouldn’t mind being made to look foolish by the drillbit, the
mining world needs a couple of big wins.
And we didn’t have to wait long for the anticipated drillbit, as on January 2nd we got this NR
with this headline (10):
Hercules Silver Drills 161 Meters of 0.45% Cu, 148 ppm Mo,4.4 g/t Ag,
including 79 Meters of 0.53% Cu, 7.3 g/t Ag in 450 Meter Step-out
That’s not a bad headline hole, but the issues and reasons for the selling become apparent if
we consider the assay table supplied in the NR:
First up, it turns out the headline numbers came from hole HER-23-21, a largely exploratory
hole that wasn’t designed to go deep enough to test the postulated deep porphyry that set off
all that fuss back in 4q23. The last time we got assays from BIG in November, that told us that
that continued “…to wait on assays for the next deep drill hole (HER-23-08)” and while those
were forthcoming last week, the fact BIG didn’t use the numbers to announce the NR is telling
in itself. But also, when we consider the much anticipated HER-23-08 hole we see that while it
did indeed cut a nice long intersection of porphyry mineralization (437m is not shabby), its
grade dropped as the hole got deeper and that’s not what you want from a world class
discovery.
17

The result was the selling you see above and, while the story isn’t dead, BIG will have to go
back to the drawing board and poke a hole in some other place at Hercules if it wants to find a
deep copper porphyry that excites the market. It’s not looking great for this previously touted
hotpot stock, but as Barrick has ploughed in and bought a large strategic position, it does have
treasury to go out and explore and Hercules is a big system with plenty of targets on offer, be
they silver nearer surface or copper at depth. All the same, with bagholders galore in at prices
of C$1 and above it will take a special hole to move this back into the green during 2024. Avoid
until further notice.
Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v): When OCO announced its $2.5m placement on November
20th, we pointed out (in IKN758) that the financing was small, wouldn’t fund this company for
long, “…and implies that OCO will go back to market in the first half of 2024 for more.” We
didn’t have to wait long, as last week OCO announced (8) another small raise, this time for
C$1m at 40c per unit (share plus full warrant priced at 65c). The stock finished up on the week,
but only on BS-type trades and the real base price is now 40c.
Camino Minerals (COR.v): The tinycap representative of this year’s list did well enough to
move from 15th to 14th in its first week, thanks to
a 28.6% move on no news that fits right in with
the reasons we decided to include it in 2024. Last
week’s brief intro blurb ended with “…at under
$15m you get plenty of leverage and as the 12
month chart here shows, COR has been volatile
and along with its reasonable volume, that makes
it tradable on small scales.” And that’s what we
saw, with a week that was capped off by a burst
of nearly half a million shares on Friday which
turned a 7c stock into a 9c stock and volume that
looks impressive until you realize that it represents
around U$30,000 in absolute value. Volatile, yes,
tradable on small scales yes, grubby little stock
with a chequered history and difficult assets in troubled areas…also yes but that doesn’t matter
very much at the moment, it seems.
American Eagle (AE.v): First up, I need to correct and error. In the presentation paragraph
on AE in last week’s edition, I wrote that its lead geological advisor, Charlie Greig, had bought
19.9% of the company’s shares. That is incorrect (and in fact knew as much, but suffered a
brainfart and didn’t spot the mistake). In fact
Charlie Greig recently bought $250k in shares and
while that’s still a big chunk of the company and a
strong endorsement of what’s going on at NAK, it’s
the main strategic sponsor Teck that has the 19.9%
position.
With the fe errata done we turn to the week’s
trading and AE did well, up 5.8% on nice buying
action and now apparently in “prelude to news”
mode. Also, one of its close watchers reached out
to this desk and said that “assay news is next
week”, so I personally get to see if that person is a
decent source or not. But whatever, we know
assays are close and we also know the winter conference/presentation season is about to start,
with junior mining bunfests scheduled in both London UK and Vancouver CA over the next
couple of weeks. The Ore Group companies tend to be switched on about promotion and if they
have results on hand, won’t want to waste an opportunity to reach a wider audience paying
attention to our sector.
18

The Producer Basket
After 1 week of 2024, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 4.85% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 41.39 1152.6 46.50 40.34 -2.5%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.09 1761.54 30.81 17.49 -3.3%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 54.85 496.54 26.13 52.63 -4.0%
4 Franco-Nevada FNV 110.81 192.119 21.14 110.04 -0.7%
5 Pan American PAAS 16.33 364.439 5.64 15.48 -5.2%
6 Lundin Gold LUGDF 12.64 237.68 2.81 11.84 -6.3%
7 Hecla Mining HL 4.81 617.768 2.66 4.30 -10.6%
8 Eldorado Gold EGO 12.97 202.472 2.42 11.96 -7.8%
9 Dundee PM DPMLF 6.43 183.278 1.15 6.25 -2.8%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.83 148.95 0.82 5.53 -5.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -4.85%
An inauspicious start to the 2024 Producer Basket}, with all ten of our component stocks losing
ground and our average some 0.85% worse than the GDX benchmark (though we’ll start the
tracking charts once there are a few weeks under the belt). Most of the losers were around and
about that 4% GDX drop, with the least worst being Franco-Nevada (FNV down 0.7%) and the
most worst Hecla (HL down 10.6%) and Eldorado (EGO down 7.8%)…that’s what happens
when you bias your bet toward the lower market cap end of Tier 1 and Tier 2 producers.
It’s rather early for real news from these companies and we need to wait a few more days for
Q4 production numbers before having anything to chew on, but there were a couple of
interesting market movers among the ten.
Franco-Nevada (FNV): We included FNV in the 2024 list, firstly because it’s a quality gold
name (perhaps even THE quality name) and secondly because of the way it got oversold on the
FM Panama Cobre issue, late last year. We
supposed that even if the Panama Cobre mine
closes completely FM is oversold compared to its
other assets but if there are signs of life from
Panama, we’d see both FM and FNV rebound
quickly. We got the latter last week, when first
rumours began to circulate that Barrick (GOLD) was
interested in buying out FM and was sounding out
its investors (which of course include FNV), then
secondly when big FM shareholder Zijin of China
also joined in the White Knight rumours as a
possible buyer for distressed FM. We can at least
see the logic behind such a deal, as even in the
worst case scenario Cobre Panama still has that
very (but VERY) strong arbitration case to bring to the international tribunals but may get into
financial trouble before any years-long case is resolved. So a good start to our loose thesis and
FNV was the “least worst” of the week, thanks mostly to FM.to.
Eldorado Gold (EGO): Even though Hecla (HL down 10.6%) dropped more, the trading action
in EGO caught my eye more than that silver-exposed laggard. EGO has a great 2023 and we
expect that to continue, but the apparently neutral news on Tuesday that its CFO was retiring
and being replaced by the company’s #2 beancounter in a straight promotion shouldn’t be
enough to make the difference that it did to the stock price.
19

EGO found extra sellers on Wednesday as gold dropped and couldn’t recoup the losses, ending
the week down almost 4% to the sector median. Not exactly a “buy the dip” opportunity as yet
and gold’s moves next week will be more import to its share price, but there’s no real reason
for what we saw and EGO shouldn’t remain an underperformer for long.
The TinyCaps List
After 1 week of 2024, the TinyCaps show a gain of 4.24% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/24 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 221.5 18.83 0.085 30.8%
Awalé Res ARIC.v 0.135 67.27 8.75 0.13 -3.7%
District Metals DMX.v 0.170 106.98 22.47 0.21 23.5%
Endurance Gold EDG.v 0.18 150.136 27.78 0.185 2.8%
Kirkland LDC KLDC.v 0.100 88.625 10.19 0.115 15.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.075 71.476 5.36 0.075 0.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.130 71.285 7.48 0.105 -19.2%
South Star STS.v 0.750 48.8 34.65 0.71 -5.3%
Surge Copper SURG.v 0.090 219.21 18.63 0.085 -5.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.120 118.384 14.80 0.125 4.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 4.24%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m (though this year I’m making one clear exception and one rule
stretcher). They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a little and allowed sub-U$20m
market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, our task is to trawl through the TSXV and find companies that are small but with life in them. The vast
majority of tinycap stocks are broken stories, either traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are
a bust or with entrenched management more interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2024. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A reasonably bright start to the 2024 TinyCaps list, with a net gain and five winners on the
week (BAY.v, DMX.v, EDG.v, KLDC.v, VAU.v) including bigger moves in Aston Bay (BAY.v up
30.8%), District Metals (DMX.v up 23.5%) and Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp (KLDC.v up
15.0%). One stock remained unchanged (LMS.v) and that leaves four losers in Week One
(ARIC.v, PA.v, STS.v, SURG.v), with the biggest drop taken by Palamina Corp (PA.v down
19.2%).
20

As with the other Basket sections, we’ll start the annual
tracking chart once there’s enough of a sample available,
perhaps another five or six weeks. Now for a couple of notes:
District Metals (DMX.v): Coincidence or not, DMX made all
its big 2023 moves at the start of the year on uranium
development talk and last week, the stock managed to run a
cool 23.5% on news that it had done a deal to secure
ownership of four concessions that consolidate its Viken
uranium concession into a single continuous region (11): The
map that came with the NR is here right and shows the Norra
Leden, Norr Viken, Lill Viken, and Storviken, bought from an
arm’s length vendor at reasonable terms. The stock shot
higher and with Sweden as a country now apparently doing a
180° turn on the whole subject of nuclear energy, DMX may
find itself in the right place at the right time in 2024.
Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v): The other big mover was
BAY, which popped on no news in the way we kind of framed
it might when including it in the list this year. I wouldn’t chase this stock and it has all the
hallmarks of the Canadian Lifestyle Exploreco, but it’s in the 2024 TinyCaps to track its fate
more closely and those of you with a penchant for flipping and trading these small fry may
want to take a closer look.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina: Milei meets political reality
The honeymoon period isn’t over but, Javier Milei, recently inaugurated President of Argentina
and brand new hero to the western world’s Libertarians, has arrived at the first and most
obvious dose of reality as he attempts to turn his country around and point it in what would be
a brand new direction (that of economic orthodoxy).
His decision to use the “Decree of National Urgency” (DNU) mechanism to attempt to push
through over 200 law changes via executive decree, announced in December and celebrated as
some sort of fait accompli in English language social media, was not some sort of masterstroke
and more akin to an opening gambit. Milei and his government people always knew his move
would be challenged by the country’s political opposition as unconstitutional and sure enough,
the dozens (literally) of law filings against the move quickly caused injunctions to be set up
against the DNUs and stopping them from becoming active law. The whole issue is complicated
in a way only Argentine politics can be, but in essence the DNU law was never supposed to be
used the way Milei (tried) to use it ands he knew that, but he wanted the public to see the
21

range of sweeping changes that he’d like to enact so he presented them to the nation in a live
TV speech, even while knowing they’d be duly challenged. That’s because he has minority
support in the law body that matters, Argentina’s Congress, so if he wants to get at least some
of the changes pushed through and into law he has to start negotiating and playing the political
game.
That particular game started Friday, as Congress began debate on specific elements of Milei’s
omnibus law package. The process is set to take most of January and will likely result in
piecemeal approvals for certain measures (that will then be signed into law), as well as plenty
of rejected initiatives in classic political horse trading style. Then at some point in February we’ll
get the first rulings from Argentina’s Supreme Court on the validity of Milei’s DNU program and
as that coincides with the end of the summer vacation period for Buenos Aires and (most of)
the rest of the country, it’s also when the gloves come off and we get to find out how much
political capital Milei really wields.
Ecuador: Noboa goes referendum
Not directly mining related, but the latest from Ecuador gets a mention to show the country has
other things on its mind than the fate of our focus sector. First up, new President Daniel Noboa
last week announced the construction of two “Bukele Style” prisons in the country, the high
security and highly regimented jails created by El Salvador President Nayib Bukele as part of his
highly successful crackdown on its gang problem. Noboa wants to emulate Bukele in Ecuador
and as the rise of narco gangs is by some way the #1 issue in the country today, his apparent
hard line is getting a warm reception.
This week Noboa also announced a new popular referendum, in the style used by Guillermo
Lasso to try (and fail) to circumvent Congress. He has sent a list of 11 questions for review to
the country’s Constitutional Court that would form the referendum and assuming they are
approved, he’ll get Ecuador to the voting booths (again) but unlike the failed Lasso referendum,
Noboa’s should meet with success. Nearly all the questions revolve around the fight against
(organized) crime, with the President asking his people for special powers to help police, allow
the armed forces to join patrols, bring in new incarceration laws, etc. In fact the only question
not directly related to security measures and the fight against narco gangs is the last one,
which looks to re-open casinos and update laws on gambling (which would be strictly limited to
tourist zones, apparently).
What’s notable is the lack of talk about mining in the country, despite the interest Noboa has in
re-starting the economy or the interest his opponents might have in putting “stones in his
shoe”, as CONAIE head Leonidas Iza put it last year. And as ours is a sector that works on the
“no news is good news” rule, particularly when it comes to CSR and ESG, that’s probably not a
bad thing for the chances of projects such as Adventus Curipamba/El Domo (see above).
Mexico: Sonora talks mining development
Last week in a well-publicized official meeting, the governor of Sonora State, Alfonso Durazo,
met with the national government’s Secretary (i.e. Minister) of the Economy, Raquel
Buenrostro. The meeting covered several subjects, but was framed by the ensuing press
coverage as “covering the development mining projects focused on electric transport,
semiconductors and new technologies” (12). As is normal, the governor gave the necessary
soundbite to the press (translated) once the meeting was done (translated): “I met with the
highly esteemed* Raquel Buenrostro, Secretary of the Economy of the Government of Mexico,
with whom we discussed the work we are doing in Sonora to encouraged investment projects in
mining related to electricity based transport, new technology and semiconductors.”
That might not be directly related to an open pit gold mine operation (of course), but seeing
the national government meet with the governor of a State that’s heavily reliant on mining for
its GDP and with an agenda specifically about mining means there are wheels now turning in
Mexico’s political world and while the ostensible reasons to talk mining may be more lithium and
graphite than gold, there’s zero doubt that the permit issue was front and centre during the
22

meeting and that Sonora is pushing for the national government to get pending permits to
mining companies. That would, of course, include a somewhat rote and normal permit for a
small miner to expand its heap leach pads at its Santana mine in the State.
*Small translation note: The above translation is accurate, but to give a sample of the real World differences between
English and Spanish please note that the original phrase is, “Me reuní con mi queridísima Raquel Buenrostro” which
literally translates as “I met with my dearly beloved Raquel Buenrostro”, or even “my darling Raquel.” One wonders
what the latest crop of language warriors would do with that.
Market Watching
Deferred again
There were a couple of minor matters that came up on the radar, such as the dismissal with
cause of Endeavour Mining’s (EDV.to) CEO for apparent corruption and/or bribery activities,
then the way in which Guanajuato Silver (GSVR.v) decided to settle debt with shares also stood
out consider its extremely weak balance sheet position as at its last financial report (3q23) and
the likelihood that its Q4 will return another big loss. But ultimately I decided not to make a big
deal of those and the potpourri Market Watching section can make its proper 2024 debut next
weekend.
Conclusion
IKN764 is done, we end with bullet points:
 A good start from the Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v) saved week one of 2024 for this
desk. More please. And a permit or two. Then more.
 Adventus this week joins Fortuna (FSM) and Equinox (EQX) as near-term trades, but
while the former gets until the end of March, I’m looking to ring the bell on FSM on a
good production NR and that could come at any time in the next couple of weeks. As
for EQX, its attraction is that old cliché of “leverage to gold price” what with its high
relative cash cost, so current $2k+ prices suit it well and all that’s missing is a market
to realize it’s going to print well in its 4q23 financials.
 Copper continues to be a concern and I’m back to seriously considering a final sale of
the Amerigo (ARG.to) I have left.
 Greetings from the Northern end of South America . It’s been a stressful few weeks
and we didn’t even have much of a chance to kick back and enjoy the Christmas break,
but the new house is now getting into shape and we’re all looking forward to a bit of
mundane normality.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
23

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/01/schedule-for-week-of-january-7-2024.html
(2) https://twitter.com/Swordfishv44183/status/1743322433837220346
(3) https://www.adventusmining.com/
(4) https://www.adventusmining.com/storage/presentations/adzn---corporate-presentation---proposed-merger-2023-11-
21-public-v2-1700610172.pdf
(5) https://somagoldcorp.com/2023/soma-announces-record-production-of-32340-aueq-ounces-in-2023/
(6) https://www.panglobalresources.com/news/pan-global-2023-achievements-set-stage-for-milestone-rich-2024-
exploration-program-at-escacena-project-southern-spain
(7) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE5lte8ZqpU
(8) https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2024/01/06/dot-lake-healy-lake-villages-react-manh-choh-ore-haul/
(9) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-drops-to-two-week-low-on-higher-dollar-china-doubts/
(10) https://herculessilver.com/hercules-silver-drills-161-meters-of-0-45-cu-148-ppm-mo4-4-g-t-ag-including-79-meters-
of-0-53-cu-7-3-g-t-ag-in-450/
(11) https://districtmetals.com/news/district-to-consolidate-100-perecent-of-the-viken-energy-metals-deposit-in-sweden-
which-contains-an-historical-inferred-resource-of-1-point-15-billion-pounds-of-u3o8
(12) https://telemax.com.mx/2024/01/04/durazo-y-gobierno-de-mexico-acuerdan-trabajar-en-proyectos-de-mineria-en-
la-entidad/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2023
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
24

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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